Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE). YES phase 1 yield feasibility report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Each state model was separately evaluated to determine if a projected performance to the country level would satisfy a 90/90 criterion. All state models, except the North Dakota and Kansas models, satisfied that criterion both for district estimates aggregated to the state level and for state estimates directly from the models. In addition to the tests of the 90/90 criterion, the models were examined for their ability to adequately respond to fluctuations in weather. This portion of the analysis was based on a subjective interpretation of values of certain description statistics. As a result, 10 of the 12 models were judged to respond inadequately to variation in weather-related variables.

Research on System Coherence Evolution of Different Environmental Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Si-Qi; Lu, Jing-Bin; Li, Hong; Liu, Ji-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Ru; Liu, Han; Liang, Yu; Ma, Ji; Liu, Xiao-Jing; Wu, Xiang-Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, we have studied the evolution curve of two-level atomic system that the initial state is excited state. At the different of environmental reservoir models, which include the single Lorentzian, ideal photon band-gap, double Lorentzian and square Lorentzian reservoir, we researched the influence of these environmental reservoir models on the evolution of energy level population. At static no modulation, comparing the four environmental models, the atomic energy level population oscillation of square Lorentzian reservoir model is fastest, and the atomic system decoherence is slowest. Under dynamic modulation, comparing the photon band-gap model with the single Lorentzian reservoir model, no matter what form of dynamic modulation, the time of atoms decay to the ground state is longer for the photonic band-gap model. These conclusions make the idea of using the environmental change to modulate the coherent evolution of atomic system become true.

Forecasting state-level premature deaths from alcohol, drugs, and suicides using Google Trends data.

PubMed

Parker, Jason; Cuthbertson, Courtney; Loveridge, Scott; Skidmore, Mark; Dyar, Will

2017-04-15

Vital statistics on the number of, alcohol-induced death (AICD) drug-induced death (DICD), and suicides at the local-level are only available after a substantial lag of up to two years after the events occur. We (1) investigate how well Google Trends search data explain variation in state-level rates in the US, and (2) use this method to forecast these rates of death for 2015 as official data are not yet available. We tested the degree to which Google Trends data on 27 terms can be fit to CDC data using L 1 -regularization on AICD, DICD, and suicide. Using Google Trends data, we forecast 2015 AICD, DICD, and suicide rates. L 1 -regularization fit the pre-2015 data much better than the alternative model using state-level unemployment and income variables. Google Trends data account for substantial variation in growth of state-level rates of death: 30.9% for AICD, 23.9% for DICD, and 21.8% for suicide rates. Every state except Hawaii is forecasted to increase in all three of these rates in 2015. The model predicts state, not local or individual behavior, and is dependent on continued availability of Google Trends data. The method predicts state-level AICD, DICD, and suicide rates better than the alternative model. The study findings suggest that this methodology can be developed into a public health surveillance system for behavioral health-related causes of death. State-level predictions could be used to inform state interventions aimed at reducing AICD, DICD, and suicide. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Associations between Depressive State and Impaired Higher-Level Functional Capacity in the Elderly with Long-Term Care Requirements.

PubMed

Ogata, Soshiro; Hayashi, Chisato; Sugiura, Keiko; Hayakawa, Kazuo

2015-01-01

Depressive state has been reported to be significantly associated with higher-level functional capacity among community-dwelling elderly. However, few studies have investigated the associations among people with long-term care requirements. We aimed to investigate the associations between depressive state and higher-level functional capacity and obtain marginal odds ratios using propensity score analyses in people with long-term care requirements. We conducted a cross-sectional study based on participants aged ≥ 65 years (n = 545) who were community dwelling and used outpatient care services for long-term preventive care. We measured higher-level functional capacity, depressive state, and possible confounders. Then, we estimated the marginal odds ratios (i.e., the change in odds of impaired higher-level functional capacity if all versus no participants were exposed to depressive state) by logistic models using generalized linear models with the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) for propensity score and design-based standard errors. Depressive state was used as the exposure variable and higher-level functional capacity as the outcome variable. The all absolute standardized differences after the IPTW using the propensity scores were < 10% which indicated negligible differences in the mean or prevalence of the covariates between non-depressive state and depressive state. The marginal odds ratios were estimated by the logistic models with IPTW using the propensity scores. The marginal odds ratios were 2.17 (95%CI: 1.13-4.19) for men and 2.57 (95%CI: 1.26-5.26) for women. Prevention of depressive state may contribute to not only depressive state but also higher-level functional capacity.

The effect of state-level funding on energy efficiency outcomes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, Anna

Increasingly, states are formalizing energy efficiency policies. In 2010, states required utilities to budget $5.5 billion through ratepayer-funded energy efficiency programs, investing in both electricity and natural gas programs. However the size and spread of energy efficiency programs was strikingly different from state to state. This paper examines how far each dollar of state-level energy efficiency funding goes in producing efficiency gains. Many states have also pursued innovative policy actions to conserve electricity. Measures of policy effort are also included in this study, along with average electricity prices. The only variable that is consistently correlated with energy usage intensity across all models is electricity price. As politicians at local, state, and Federal levels continue to push for improved energy efficiency, the models in this paper provide a convincing impetus for focusing on strategies that raise energy prices.

Examining the relationship between the prevalence of guns and homicide rates in the USA using a new and improved state-level gun ownership proxy.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2014-12-01

Determining the relationship between gun ownership levels and firearm homicide rates is critical to inform public health policy. Previous research has shown that state-level gun ownership, as measured by a widely used proxy, is positively associated with firearm homicide rates. A newly developed proxy measure that incorporates the hunting license rate in addition to the proportion of firearm suicides correlates more highly with state-level gun ownership. To corroborate previous research, we used this new proxy to estimate the association of state-level gun ownership with total, firearm, and non-firearm homicides. Using state-specific data for the years 1981-2010, we modelled these rates as a function of gun ownership level, controlling for potential confounding factors. We used a negative binomial regression model and accounted for clustering of observations among states. We found that state-level gun ownership as measured by the new proxy, is significantly associated with firearm and total homicides but not with non-firearm homicides. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Monitoring alert and drowsy states by modeling EEG source nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Sheng-Hsiou; Jung, Tzyy-Ping

2017-10-01

Objective. As a human brain performs various cognitive functions within ever-changing environments, states of the brain characterized by recorded brain activities such as electroencephalogram (EEG) are inevitably nonstationary. The challenges of analyzing the nonstationary EEG signals include finding neurocognitive sources that underlie different brain states and using EEG data to quantitatively assess the state changes. Approach. This study hypothesizes that brain activities under different states, e.g. levels of alertness, can be modeled as distinct compositions of statistically independent sources using independent component analysis (ICA). This study presents a framework to quantitatively assess the EEG source nonstationarity and estimate levels of alertness. The framework was tested against EEG data collected from 10 subjects performing a sustained-attention task in a driving simulator. Main results. Empirical results illustrate that EEG signals under alert versus drowsy states, indexed by reaction speeds to driving challenges, can be characterized by distinct ICA models. By quantifying the goodness-of-fit of each ICA model to the EEG data using the model deviation index (MDI), we found that MDIs were significantly correlated with the reaction speeds (r  =  -0.390 with alertness models and r  =  0.449 with drowsiness models) and the opposite correlations indicated that the two models accounted for sources in the alert and drowsy states, respectively. Based on the observed source nonstationarity, this study also proposes an online framework using a subject-specific ICA model trained with an initial (alert) state to track the level of alertness. For classification of alert against drowsy states, the proposed online framework achieved an averaged area-under-curve of 0.745 and compared favorably with a classic power-based approach. Significance. This ICA-based framework provides a new way to study changes of brain states and can be applied to monitoring cognitive or mental states of human operators in attention-critical settings or in passive brain-computer interfaces.

The construct of state-level suspicion: a model and research agenda for automated and information technology (IT) contexts.

PubMed

Bobko, Philip; Barelka, Alex J; Hirshfield, Leanne M

2014-05-01

The objective was to review and integrate available research about the construct of state-level suspicion as it appears in social science literatures and apply the resulting findings to information technology (IT) contexts. Although the human factors literature is replete with articles about trust (and distrust) in automation, there is little on the related, but distinct, construct of "suspicion" (in either automated or IT contexts). The construct of suspicion--its precise definition, theoretical correlates, and role in such applications--deserves further study. Literatures that consider suspicion are reviewed and integrated. Literatures include communication, psychology, human factors, management, marketing, information technology, and brain/neurology. We first develop a generic model of state-level suspicion. Research propositions are then derived within IT contexts. Fundamental components of suspicion include (a) uncertainty, (b) increased cognitive processing (e.g., generation of alternative explanations for perceived discrepancies), and (c) perceptions of (mal)intent. State suspicion is defined as the simultaneous occurrence of these three components. Our analysis also suggests that trust inhibits suspicion, whereas distrust can be a catalyst of state-level suspicion. Based on a three-stage model of state-level suspicion, associated research propositions and questions are developed. These propositions and questions are intended to help guide future work on the measurement of suspicion (self-report and neurological), as well as the role of the construct of suspicion in models of decision making and detection of deception. The study of suspicion, including its correlates, antecedents, and consequences, is important. We hope that the social sciences will benefit from our integrated definition and model of state suspicion. The research propositions regarding suspicion in IT contexts should motivate substantial research in human factors and related fields.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates.

PubMed

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-30

Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables.

A multilevel model for cardiovascular disease prevalence in the US and its application to micro area prevalence estimates

PubMed Central

Congdon, Peter

2009-01-01

Background Estimates of disease prevalence for small areas are increasingly required for the allocation of health funds according to local need. Both individual level and geographic risk factors are likely to be relevant to explaining prevalence variations, and in turn relevant to the procedure for small area prevalence estimation. Prevalence estimates are of particular importance for major chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular disease. Methods A multilevel prevalence model for cardiovascular outcomes is proposed that incorporates both survey information on patient risk factors and the effects of geographic location. The model is applied to derive micro area prevalence estimates, specifically estimates of cardiovascular disease for Zip Code Tabulation Areas in the USA. The model incorporates prevalence differentials by age, sex, ethnicity and educational attainment from the 2005 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Influences of geographic context are modelled at both county and state level, with the county effects relating to poverty and urbanity. State level influences are modelled using a random effects approach that allows both for spatial correlation and spatial isolates. Results To assess the importance of geographic variables, three types of model are compared: a model with person level variables only; a model with geographic effects that do not interact with person attributes; and a full model, allowing for state level random effects that differ by ethnicity. There is clear evidence that geographic effects improve statistical fit. Conclusion Geographic variations in disease prevalence partly reflect the demographic composition of area populations. However, prevalence variations may also show distinct geographic 'contextual' effects. The present study demonstrates by formal modelling methods that improved explanation is obtained by allowing for distinct geographic effects (for counties and states) and for interaction between geographic and person variables. Thus an appropriate methodology to estimate prevalence at small area level should include geographic effects as well as person level demographic variables. PMID:19183458

State-to-State Internal Energy Relaxation Following the Quantum-Kinetic Model in DSMC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liechty, Derek S.

2014-01-01

A new model for chemical reactions, the Quantum-Kinetic (Q-K) model of Bird, has recently been introduced that does not depend on macroscopic rate equations or values of local flow field data. Subsequently, the Q-K model has been extended to include reactions involving charged species and electronic energy level transitions. Although this is a phenomenological model, it has been shown to accurately reproduce both equilibrium and non-equilibrium reaction rates. The usefulness of this model becomes clear as local flow conditions either exceed the conditions used to build previous models or when they depart from an equilibrium distribution. Presently, the applicability of the relaxation technique is investigated for the vibrational internal energy mode. The Forced Harmonic Oscillator (FHO) theory for vibrational energy level transitions is combined with the Q-K energy level transition model to accurately reproduce energy level transitions at a reduced computational cost compared to the older FHO models.

A Funding Model for Community College Operating Costs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lausberg, Clement H.

This state- and national-level funding model was designed to assist community and junior college administrators, state agency officials, and officers in the executive and legislative branches of state government. The principal objectives of the model are to: (1) officially recognize post-secondary education as a public responsibility; (2) equalize…

Predicting county-level cancer incidence rates and counts in the United States

PubMed Central

Yu, Binbing

2018-01-01

Many countries, including the United States, publish predicted numbers of cancer incidence and death in current and future years for the whole country. These predictions provide important information on the cancer burden for cancer control planners, policymakers and the general public. Based on evidence from several empirical studies, the joinpoint (segmented-line linear regression) model has been adopted by the American Cancer Society to estimate the number of new cancer cases in the United States and in individual states since 2007. Recently, cancer incidence in smaller geographic regions such as counties and FIPS code regions is of increasing interest by local policymakers. The natural extension is to directly apply the joinpoint model to county-level cancer incidence data. The direct application has several drawbacks and its performance has not been evaluated. To address the concerns, we developed a spatial random-effects joinpoint model for county-level cancer incidence data. The proposed model was used to predict both cancer incidence rates and counts at the county level. The standard joinpoint model and the proposed method were compared through a validation study. The proposed method out-performed the standard joinpoint model for almost all cancer sites, especially for moderate or rare cancer sites and for counties with small population sizes. As an application, we predicted county-level prostate cancer incidence rates and counts for the year 2011 in Connecticut. PMID:23670947

In-beam γ -ray spectroscopy of Mn 63

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baugher, T.; Gade, A.; Janssens, R. V. F.

2016-01-01

Background: Neutron-rich, even-mass chromium and iron isotopes approaching neutron number N = 40 have been important benchmarks in the development of shell-model effective interactions incorporating the effects of shell evolution in the exotic regime. Odd-mass manganese nuclei have received less attention, but provide important and complementary sensitivity to these interactions. Purpose: We report the observation of two new γ -ray transitions in 63 Mn , which establish the ( 9 / 2 - ) and ( 11 / 2 - ) levels on top of the previously known ( 7 / 2 - ) first-excited state. The lifetime for themore » ( 7 / 2 - ) and ( 9 / 2 - ) excited states were determined for the first time, while an upper limit could be established for the ( 11 / 2 - ) level. Method: Excited states in 63 Mn have been populated in inelastic scattering from a 9 Be target and in the fragmentation of 65 Fe . γ γ coincidence relationships were used to establish the decay level scheme. A Doppler line-shape analysis for the Doppler-broadened ( 7 / 2 - ) → 5 / 2 - , ( 9 / 2 - ) → ( 7 / 2 - ) , and ( 11 / 2 - ) → ( 9 / 2 - ) transitions was used to determine (limits for) the corresponding excited-state lifetimes. Results: The low-lying level scheme and the excited-state lifetimes were compared with large-scale shell-model calculations using different model spaces and effective interactions in order to isolate important aspects of shell evolution in this region of structural change. Conclusions: While the theoretical ( 7 / 2 - ) and ( 9 / 2 - ) excitation energies show little dependence on the model space, the calculated lifetime of the ( 7 / 2 - ) level and calculated energy of the ( 11 / 2 - ) level reveal the importance of including the neutron g 9 / 2 and d 5 / 2 orbitals in the model space. The LNPS effective shell-model interaction provides the best overall agreement with the new data.« less

Investigation of high spin states in 133Cs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Q.; Xiao, Z. G.; Zhu, S. J.; Qi, C.; Jia, H.; Qi, B.; Wang, R. S.; Cheng, W. J.; Zhang, Y.; Yi, H.; Lü, L. M.; Wang, Y. J.; Li, H. J.; Huang, Y.; Zhang, Z.; Wu, X. G.; Li, C. B.; Zheng, Y.; Chen, Q. M.; Zhou, W. K.; Li, G. S.

2018-05-01

High spin states in 133Cs nucleus have been studied with the reaction 130Te (7Li, 4n) at a beam energy of 38 MeV. The level scheme has been expanded with spin up to 31/2 \\hbar. Compared with a recent paper, ground state band and other two collective band structures at lower spin states have been confirmed. Another collective band structure at higher spin states as well as some levels and transitions are updated. Compared with the experimental data, large-scale shell model and tilted axis cranking model calculations have been carried out. The results show that the band-head configuration of yrast band based on 7/2+ ground state and the side band built on the 5/2+ state are a pair of pseudospin partner states with π \\tilde{f}_{7/2,5/2}. The negative parity band based on 1071.5 keV level originates from π h_{11/2} orbital. Another band built on 2642.9 keV level at high spin states has been proposed with oblate deformation. Other characteristics for these bands were also discussed.

Assessing a multilevel model of young children’s oral health with national survey data

PubMed Central

Bramlett, Matthew D.; Soobader, Mah-J; Fisher-Owens, Susan A.; Weintraub, Jane A.; Gansky, Stuart A.; Platt, Larry J.; Newacheck, Paul W.

2010-01-01

Objectives To empirically test a multilevel conceptual model of children’s oral health incorporating 22 domains of children’s oral health across four levels: child, family, neighborhood and state. Data source The 2003 National Survey of Children’s Health, a module of the State and Local Area Integrated Telephone Survey conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics, is a nationally representative telephone survey of caregivers of children. Study design We examined child-, family-, neighborhood-, and state-level factors influencing parent’s report of children’s oral health using a multilevel logistic regression model, estimated for 26 736 children ages 1–5 years. Principal findings Factors operating at all four levels were associated with the likelihood that parents rated their children’s oral health as fair or poor, although most significant correlates are represented at the child or family level. Of 22 domains identified in our conceptual model, 15 domains contained factors significantly associated with young children’s oral health. At the state level, access to fluoridated water was significantly associated with favorable oral health for children. Conclusions Our results suggest that efforts to understand or improve children’s oral health should consider a multilevel approach that goes beyond solely child-level factors. PMID:20370808

Recent trends at the state and federal level in accelerating CERCLA clean-ups

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clegg, B.

Efforts at accelerating remedial action at the federal level focus on the following: the Superfund accelerated clean-up model (SCAM); Brownfields economic redevelopment initiative; guidance documents and policies; and collaboration with state voluntary cleanup programs. At the state level efforts involved in accelerating clean-ups include voluntary clean-up programs and Brownfields initiatives.

Parameters of Quality Control and Decision Making At the State Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Merkel-Keller, Claudia

The recommendation is made that Elementary Secondary Education Act Title I data should be subjected to quality control procedures at local, state, and national levels. An industrial quality control model may provide a useful approach, particularly at the state level. A brief description of the Title I Evaluation and Reporting System is given,…

State Size and Government Level Matter Most: A Structural Equation Model of Local Health Department Policy Behaviors.

PubMed

Meyerson, Beth E; Sayegh, M Aaron

2016-01-01

To explore relationships between local health department policy behaviors, levels of government activity, policy focus areas, and selected health department characteristics. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from the 2013 National Association of County & City Health Officials (NACCHO) Profile Survey. Local health departments throughout the United States. A total of 2000 local health departments responding to the 2013 Profile Survey of Local Health Departments. Survey data were gathered by the NACCHO. Secondary analysis of reported policy behaviors for the 2013 NACCHO Profile Survey. A structural equation model tested effects on and between state population size, rurality, census region and policy focus, and the latent variables of policy behavior formed from a confirmatory factor analysis. Policy behaviors, levels of government activity (local, state, and federal), policy focus areas, and selected local health department characteristics. The majority (85.1%) of health departments reported at least one of the possible policy behaviors. State population size increased the probability of local policy behavior, and local behavior increased the probability of state policy behavior. State size increased the likelihood of federal policy behavior and the focus on tobacco, emergency preparedness, and obesity/chronic disease. However, the more rural a state was, the more likely policy behavior was at the state and federal levels and not at local levels. Specific policy behaviors mattered less than the level of government activity. Size of state and rurality of health departments influence the government level of policy behavior.

Monthly mean simulation experiments with a course-mesh global atmospheric model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spar, J.; Klugman, R.; Lutz, R. J.; Notario, J. J.

1978-01-01

Substitution of observed monthly mean sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) as lower boundary conditions, in place of climatological SSTs, failed to improve the model simulations. While the impact of SST anomalies on the model output is greater at sea level than at upper levels the impact on the monthly mean simulations is not beneficial at any level. Shifts of one and two days in initialization time produced small, but non-trivial, changes in the model-generated monthly mean synoptic fields. No improvements in the mean simulations resulted from the use of either time-averaged initial data or re-initialization with time-averaged early model output. The noise level of the model, as determined from a multiple initial state perturbation experiment, was found to be generally low, but with a noisier response to initial state errors in high latitudes than the tropics.

Assessment of state measures of risk-appropriate care for very low birth weight infants and recommendations for enhancing regionalized state systems.

PubMed

Nowakowski, Lindsey; Barfield, Wanda D; Kroelinger, Charlan D; Lauver, Cassie B; Lawler, Michele H; White, Vanessa A; Ramos, Lauren Raskin

2012-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine state measurements and improvements in risk-appropriate care for very low birth weight (VLBW) infants. The authors reviewed state perinatal regionalization models and levels of care to compare varying definitions between states and assess mechanisms of measurement and areas for improvement. Seven states that presented at a 2009 Association of Maternal & Child Health Programs Perinatal Regionalization Meeting were included in the assessment. Information was gathered from meeting presentations, presenters, state representatives, and state websites. Comparison of state levels of care and forms of regulation were outlined. Review of state models revealed variability in the models themselves, as well as the various mechanisms for measuring and improving risk-appropriate care. Regulation of regionalization programs, data surveillance, review of adverse events, and consideration of geography and demographics were identified as mechanisms facilitating better measurement of risk-appropriate care. Antenatal or neonatal transfer arrangements, telemedicine networks, acquisition of funding, provision of financial incentives, and patient education comprised state actions for improving risk-appropriate care. The void of explicit and updated national standards led to the current variations in definitions and models among states. State regionalization models and measures of risk-appropriate care varied greatly. These variations arose from inconsistent definitions and models of perinatal regionalization. Guidelines should be collaboratively developed by healthcare providers and public health officials for consistent and suitable measures of perinatal risk-appropriate care.

Evaluating the Magnitude and Duration of Cold Load Pick-up on Residential Distribution Feeders Using Multi-State Load Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schneider, Kevin P.; Sortomme, Eric; Venkata, S. S.

The increased level of demand that is associated with the restoration of service after an outage, Cold Load Pick-Up (CLPU), can be significantly higher than pre-outage levels, even exceeding the normal distribution feeder peak demand. These high levels of demand can delay restoration efforts and in extreme cases damage equipment. The negative impacts of CLPU can be mitigated with strategies that restore the feeder in sections, minimizing the load current. The challenge for utilities is to manage the current level on critical equipment while minimizing the time to restore service to all customers. Accurately modeling CLPU events is the firstmore » step in developing improved restoration strategies that minimize restoration times. This paper presents a new method for evaluating the magnitude of the CLPU peak, and its duration, using multi-state load models. The use of multi-state load models allows for a more accurate representation of the end-use loads that are present on residential distribution feeders.« less

Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Jianjun; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.

2009-04-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Model Projections of Rapid Sea-Level Rise on the Northeast Coast of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, J.; Schlesinger, M.; Stouffer, R. J.

2009-12-01

Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. In the present study, we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously.

Impact of State Public Health Spending on Disease Incidence in the United States from 1980 to 2009.

PubMed

Verma, Reetu; Clark, Samantha; Leider, Jonathon; Bishai, David

2017-02-01

To understand the relationship between state-level spending by public health departments and the incidence of three vaccine preventable diseases (VPDs): mumps, pertussis, and rubella in the United States from 1980 to 2009. This study uses state-level public health spending data from The Census Bureau and annual mumps, pertussis, and rubella incidence counts from the University of Pittsburgh's project Tycho. Ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effects, and random effects regression models were tested, with results indicating that a fixed effects model would be most appropriate model for this analysis. Model output suggests a statistically significant, negative relationship between public health spending and mumps and rubella incidence. Lagging outcome variables indicate that public health spending actually has the greatest impact on VPD incidence in subsequent years, rather than the year in which the spending occurred. Results were robust to models with lagged spending variables, national time trends, and state time trends, as well as models with and without Medicaid and hospital spending. Our analysis indicates that there is evidence of a significant, negative relationship between a state's public health spending and the incidence of two VPDs, mumps and rubella, in the United States. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Modeling Analyses of the Effects of Changes in Nitrogen Oxides Emission from the Electric Power Sector on Ozone Levels in the Eastern United States

EPA Science Inventory

This modeling study tests a hypothetical scenario to see what air quality might have looked like if no emission controls had been placed on electric generating units, as required by the NOx State Implementation Plan (SIP) Call required in 2004. Results showed that ozone levels w...

Utilizing a State Level Volunteer Recognition Program at the County Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCall, Fran Korthaus; Culp, Ken, III

2013-01-01

Volunteer recognition is an important component of Extension programs. Most land-grant universities have implemented a state volunteer recognition program. Extension professionals, however, are too overburdened with meetings, programs, and activities to effectively recognize volunteers locally. Utilizing a state model is an efficient means of…

Entanglement spectrum as a generalization of entanglement entropy: identification of topological order in non-Abelian fractional quantum Hall effect states.

PubMed

Li, Hui; Haldane, F D M

2008-07-04

We study the "entanglement spectrum" (a presentation of the Schmidt decomposition analogous to a set of "energy levels") of a many-body state, and compare the Moore-Read model wave function for the nu=5/2 fractional quantum Hall state with a generic 5/2 state obtained by finite-size diagonalization of the second-Landau-level-projected Coulomb interactions. Their spectra share a common "gapless" structure, related to conformal field theory. In the model state, these are the only levels, while in the "generic" case, they are separated from the rest of the spectrum by a clear "entanglement gap", which appears to remain finite in the thermodynamic limit. We propose that the low-lying entanglement spectrum can be used as a "fingerprint" to identify topological order.

Three-state combinatorial switch models as applied to the binding of oxygen by human hemoglobin.

PubMed

Straume, M; Johnson, M L

1988-02-23

We have generated a series of all 6561 unique, discrete three-state combinatorial switch models to describe the partitioning of the cooperative oxygen-binding free change among the 10 variously ligated forms of human hemoglobin tetramers. These models were inspired by the experimental observation of Smith and Ackers that the cooperative free energy of the intersubunit contact regions of the 10 possible ligated forms of human hemoglobin tetramers can be represented by a particular distribution of three distinct energy levels [Smith, F. R., & Ackers, G. K. (1985) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 82, 5347-5351]. A statistical thermodynamic formulation accounting for both dimer-tetramer equilibria and ligand binding properties of hemoglobin solutions as a function of oxygen and protein concentrations was utilized to exhaustively test these thermodynamic models. In this series of models each of the 10 ligated forms of the hemoglobin tetramer can exist in one, and only one, of three possible energy levels; i.e., each ligated form was assumed to be associated with a discrete energy state. This series of models includes all possible ways that the 10 ligation states of hemoglobin can be distributed into three distinct cooperative energy levels. The mathematical models, as presented here, do not permit equilibria between energy states to exist for any of the 10 unique ligated forms of hemoglobin tetramers. These models were analyzed by nonlinear least-squares estimation of the free energy parameters characteristic of this statistical thermodynamic development.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Effect of density of states peculiarities on Hund's metal behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belozerov, A. S.; Katanin, A. A.; Anisimov, V. I.

2018-03-01

We investigate a possibility of Hund's metal behavior in the Hubbard model with asymmetric density of states having peak(s). Specifically, we consider the degenerate two-band model and compare its results to the five-band model with realistic density of states of iron and nickel, showing that the obtained results are more general, provided that the hybridization between states of different symmetry is sufficiently small. We find that quasiparticle damping and the formation of local magnetic moments due to Hund's exchange interaction are enhanced by both the density of states asymmetry, which yields stronger correlated electron or hole excitations, and the larger density of states at the Fermi level, increasing the number of virtual electron-hole excitations. For realistic densities of states, these two factors are often interrelated because the Fermi level is attracted towards peaks of the density of states. We discuss the implication of the obtained results to various substances and compounds, such as transition metals, iron pnictides, and cuprates.

Education, gender, and state-level disparities in the health of older Indians: Evidence from biomarker data.

PubMed

Lee, Jinkook; McGovern, Mark E; Bloom, David E; Arokiasamy, P; Risbud, Arun; O'Brien, Jennifer; Kale, Varsha; Hu, Peifeng

2015-12-01

Using new biomarker data from the 2010 pilot round of the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), we investigate education, gender, and state-level disparities in health. We find that hemoglobin level, a marker for anemia, is lower for respondents with no schooling (0.7g/dL less in the adjusted model) compared to those with some formal education and is also lower for females than for males (2.0g/dL less in the adjusted model). In addition, we find that about one third of respondents in our sample aged 45 or older have high C-reaction protein (CRP) levels (>3mg/L), an indicator of inflammation and a risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We find no evidence of educational or gender differences in CRP, but there are significant state-level disparities, with Kerala residents exhibiting the lowest CRP levels (a mean of 1.96mg/L compared to 3.28mg/L in Rajasthan, the state with the highest CRP). We use the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition approach to explain group-level differences, and find that state-level disparities in CRP are mainly due to heterogeneity in the association of the observed characteristics of respondents with CRP, rather than differences in the distribution of endowments across the sampled state populations. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the economic value and consumer preferences of commercial mondol stingray (Himantura gerardi) leather creative products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahubawa, L.; Pertiwiningrum, A.; Rahmadian, Y.

2018-03-01

The research objectives were to design, assess the economic value and consumer preference level of stingray leather products. The research method included a product design, analysis of economic value and consumer preferences. Mondol stingray (Himantura gerardi) leather, with a length of 50 cm and width of 30 cm, were processed into ID card wallet, man and women’s wallet and key holder. The number of respondents involved to analyze the preference level is 75 respondents (students, lecturers and employees of Universitas Gadjah Mada). Indicators of consumer preferences were model, color, price and purchasing power. The price of ID card wallet is Rp. 450,000; women wallet is Rp. 650,000 and a key holder is Rp. 300,000. Consumer preferences on ID card wallet were as follow: 84 % stated very interesting model; 83 % stated very interesting color; 61 % stated cheap and 53 % had enough. Consumer preferences of women’s wallet were as follow: 81 % stated very interesting model; 84 % stated very interesting color; 56 % stated cheap and 57 % had enough. Consumer preferences on key holder were as follow: 49 % stated interesting model; 72 % stated very interesting color; 61 % stated cheap and 57 % had enough.

Implementation of Kalman filter algorithm on models reduced using singular pertubation approximation method and its application to measurement of water level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachmawati, Vimala; Khusnul Arif, Didik; Adzkiya, Dieky

2018-03-01

The systems contained in the universe often have a large order. Thus, the mathematical model has many state variables that affect the computation time. In addition, generally not all variables are known, so estimations are needed to measure the magnitude of the system that cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we discuss the model reduction and estimation of state variables in the river system to measure the water level. The model reduction of a system is an approximation method of a system with a lower order without significant errors but has a dynamic behaviour that is similar to the original system. The Singular Perturbation Approximation method is one of the model reduction methods where all state variables of the equilibrium system are partitioned into fast and slow modes. Then, The Kalman filter algorithm is used to estimate state variables of stochastic dynamic systems where estimations are computed by predicting state variables based on system dynamics and measurement data. Kalman filters are used to estimate state variables in the original system and reduced system. Then, we compare the estimation results of the state and computational time between the original and reduced system.

State tobacco control expenditures and tax paid cigarette sales

PubMed Central

Tauras, John A.; Xu, Xin; Huang, Jidong; King, Brian; Lavinghouze, S. Rene; Sneegas, Karla S.; Chaloupka, Frank J.

2018-01-01

This research is the first nationally representative study to examine the relationship between actual state-level tobacco control spending in each of the 5 CDC’s Best Practices for Comprehensive Tobacco Control Program categories and cigarette sales. We employed several alternative two-way fixed-effects regression techniques to estimate the determinants of cigarette sales in the United States for the years 2008–2012. State spending on tobacco control was found to have a negative and significant impact on cigarette sales in all models that were estimated. Spending in the areas of cessation interventions, health communication interventions, and state and community interventions were found to have a negative impact on cigarette sales in all models that were estimated, whereas spending in the areas of surveillance and evaluation, and administration and management were found to have negative effects on cigarette sales in only some models. Our models predict that states that spend up to seven times their current levels could still see significant reductions in cigarette sales. The findings from this research could help inform further investments in state tobacco control programs. PMID:29652890

GLIMPSE: An integrated assessment model-based tool for ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Dan Loughlin will describe the GCAM-USA integrated assessment model and how that model is being improved and integrated into the GLIMPSE decision support system. He will also demonstrate the application of the model to evaluate the emissions and health implications of hypothetical state-level renewable electricity standards. Introduce the GLIMPSE project to state and regional environmental modelers and analysts. Presented as part of the State Energy and Air Quality Group Webinar Series, which is organized by NESCAUM.

Coulomb displacement energies of excited states

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sherr, R.; Bertsch, G.

The Bansal--French--Zamick model is quite successful in accounting for the Coulomb displacement energies of excited particle--hole states in a variety of light nuclei. Level shifts are typically reproduced to within 50 keV. However, the model fails for certain excited 0$sup +$ states, and this remains a puzzle. (AIP)

Dynamic Neural State Identification in Deep Brain Local Field Potentials of Neuropathic Pain.

PubMed

Luo, Huichun; Huang, Yongzhi; Du, Xueying; Zhang, Yunpeng; Green, Alexander L; Aziz, Tipu Z; Wang, Shouyan

2018-01-01

In neuropathic pain, the neurophysiological and neuropathological function of the ventro-posterolateral nucleus of the thalamus (VPL) and the periventricular gray/periaqueductal gray area (PVAG) involves multiple frequency oscillations. Moreover, oscillations related to pain perception and modulation change dynamically over time. Fluctuations in these neural oscillations reflect the dynamic neural states of the nucleus. In this study, an approach to classifying the synchronization level was developed to dynamically identify the neural states. An oscillation extraction model based on windowed wavelet packet transform was designed to characterize the activity level of oscillations. The wavelet packet coefficients sparsely represented the activity level of theta and alpha oscillations in local field potentials (LFPs). Then, a state discrimination model was designed to calculate an adaptive threshold to determine the activity level of oscillations. Finally, the neural state was represented by the activity levels of both theta and alpha oscillations. The relationship between neural states and pain relief was further evaluated. The performance of the state identification approach achieved sensitivity and specificity beyond 80% in simulation signals. Neural states of the PVAG and VPL were dynamically identified from LFPs of neuropathic pain patients. The occurrence of neural states based on theta and alpha oscillations were correlated to the degree of pain relief by deep brain stimulation. In the PVAG LFPs, the occurrence of the state with high activity levels of theta oscillations independent of alpha and the state with low-level alpha and high-level theta oscillations were significantly correlated with pain relief by deep brain stimulation. This study provides a reliable approach to identifying the dynamic neural states in LFPs with a low signal-to-noise ratio by using sparse representation based on wavelet packet transform. Furthermore, it may advance closed-loop deep brain stimulation based on neural states integrating multiple neural oscillations.

Dynamic Neural State Identification in Deep Brain Local Field Potentials of Neuropathic Pain

PubMed Central

Luo, Huichun; Huang, Yongzhi; Du, Xueying; Zhang, Yunpeng; Green, Alexander L.; Aziz, Tipu Z.; Wang, Shouyan

2018-01-01

In neuropathic pain, the neurophysiological and neuropathological function of the ventro-posterolateral nucleus of the thalamus (VPL) and the periventricular gray/periaqueductal gray area (PVAG) involves multiple frequency oscillations. Moreover, oscillations related to pain perception and modulation change dynamically over time. Fluctuations in these neural oscillations reflect the dynamic neural states of the nucleus. In this study, an approach to classifying the synchronization level was developed to dynamically identify the neural states. An oscillation extraction model based on windowed wavelet packet transform was designed to characterize the activity level of oscillations. The wavelet packet coefficients sparsely represented the activity level of theta and alpha oscillations in local field potentials (LFPs). Then, a state discrimination model was designed to calculate an adaptive threshold to determine the activity level of oscillations. Finally, the neural state was represented by the activity levels of both theta and alpha oscillations. The relationship between neural states and pain relief was further evaluated. The performance of the state identification approach achieved sensitivity and specificity beyond 80% in simulation signals. Neural states of the PVAG and VPL were dynamically identified from LFPs of neuropathic pain patients. The occurrence of neural states based on theta and alpha oscillations were correlated to the degree of pain relief by deep brain stimulation. In the PVAG LFPs, the occurrence of the state with high activity levels of theta oscillations independent of alpha and the state with low-level alpha and high-level theta oscillations were significantly correlated with pain relief by deep brain stimulation. This study provides a reliable approach to identifying the dynamic neural states in LFPs with a low signal-to-noise ratio by using sparse representation based on wavelet packet transform. Furthermore, it may advance closed-loop deep brain stimulation based on neural states integrating multiple neural oscillations. PMID:29695951

Estimating the impact of the 2004 Alaskan forest fires on episodic particulate matter pollution over the eastern United States through assimilation of satellite-derived aerosol optical depths in a regional air quality model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathur, Rohit

2008-09-01

During the summer of 2004, extensive wildfires burned in Alaska and western Canada; the fires were the largest on record for Alaska. Smoke from these fires was observed over the continental United States in satellite images, and a variety of chemical tracers associated with the fires were sampled by aircrafts deployed during the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation field experiment. Several recent studies have quantified the impacts of the long-range transport of pollution associated with these fires on tropospheric CO and O3 levels over the eastern United States. This study quantifies the episodic impact of this pollution transport event on surface-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations over the eastern United States during mid-July 2004, through the complementary use of remotely sensed, aloft, and surface measurements, in conjunction with a comprehensive regional atmospheric chemistry-transport model. A methodology is developed to assimilate MODIS aerosol optical depths in the model to represent the impacts of the fires. The resultant model predictions of CO and PM2.5 distributions are compared extensively with corresponding surface and aloft measurements. On the basis of the model calculations, a 0.12Tg enhancement in tropospheric PM2.5 mass loading over the eastern United States is estimated on 19 July 2004 due to the fires. This amount is significantly larger (approximately a factor of 8) than the total daily anthropogenic fine particulate matter emissions for the continental United States. Analysis of measured and modeled PM2.5 surface-level concentrations suggests that the transport of particulate matter pollution associated with the fires resulted in a 24-42 % enhancement in median surface-level PM2.5 concentrations across the eastern United States during 19-23 July 2004.

Dynamics of coherent states in regular and chaotic regimes of the non-integrable Dicke model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lerma-Hernández, S.; Chávez-Carlos, J.; Bastarrachea-Magnani, M. A.; López-del-Carpio, B.; Hirsch, J. G.

2018-04-01

The quantum dynamics of initial coherent states is studied in the Dicke model and correlated with the dynamics, regular or chaotic, of their classical limit. Analytical expressions for the survival probability, i.e. the probability of finding the system in its initial state at time t, are provided in the regular regions of the model. The results for regular regimes are compared with those of the chaotic ones. It is found that initial coherent states in regular regions have a much longer equilibration time than those located in chaotic regions. The properties of the distributions for the initial coherent states in the Hamiltonian eigenbasis are also studied. It is found that for regular states the components with no negligible contribution are organized in sequences of energy levels distributed according to Gaussian functions. In the case of chaotic coherent states, the energy components do not have a simple structure and the number of participating energy levels is larger than in the regular cases.

Item Response Theory at Subject- and Group-Level. Research Report 90-1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tobi, Hilde

This paper reviews the literature about item response models for the subject level and aggregated level (group level). Group-level item response models (IRMs) are used in the United States in large-scale assessment programs such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress and the California Assessment Program. In the Netherlands, these…

Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

Examining Elementary Social Studies Marginalization: A Multilevel Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitchett, Paul G.; Heafner, Tina L.; Lambert, Richard G.

2014-01-01

Utilizing data from the National Center for Education Statistics Schools and Staffing Survey (SASS), a multilevel model (Hierarchical Linear Model) was developed to examine the association of teacher/classroom and state level indicators on reported elementary social studies instructional time. Findings indicated that state testing policy was a…

Exploring Solid-State Structure and Physical Properties: A Molecular and Crystal Model Exercise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bindel, Thomas H.

2008-01-01

A crystal model laboratory exercise is presented that allows students to examine relations among the microscopic-macroscopic-symbolic levels, using crystalline mineral samples and corresponding crystal models. Students explore the relationship between solid-state structure and crystal form. Other structure-property relationships are explored. The…

Comparison of CRD, APU, and state models for Iowa corn and soybeans and North Dakota barley and spring wheat

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, V.

1983-01-01

A comparison was made among the CEAS crop reporting district (CRD), agrophysical unit (APU), and state level multiple regression yield models for corn and soybeans in Iowa and barley and spring wheat in North Dakota. The best predictions were made by the state model for North Dakota spring wheat, by the APU models for barley, by the CRD models for Iowa soybeans, and by APU covariance models for Iowa corn. Because of this lack of consistency of model performance, CRD models would be recommended due to the availability of the data.

[Construction and application of economy-pollution-environment three-dimensional evaluation model for district].

PubMed

Fan, Xin-Gang; Mi, Wen-Bao; Ma, Zhen-Ning

2015-02-01

For deep analysis on the regional environmental economic system, the paper analyzes the mutual relation of regional economy development, environmental quality, environmental pollution, and builds the theoretical basis. Then, the economy-pollution-environment quality three-dimensional coupling evaluation model for district is constructed. It includes economic development level index, environmental pollution index, and environmental quality index. The model is a cube, which has spatialization and visualization characteristics. The model includes 8 sub cubes, which expresses 8 types of state, e. g. low pollution-inferior quality-low level of economic development etc. The model can be used to evaluate the status of region, divide development phase, analyze evolution trend etc. It has two ways including relative meaning evaluation (RME) and absolute meaning evaluation (AME). Based on the model, Yinchuan City in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as an example for the empirical study. Using RME, compared with Guangzhou city, The result shows that the Yinchuan City has been a high pollution-low quality-low level of economic development state for a long period during 1996-2010. After 2007, the state changed to a high pollution-high quality-low level of economic development. Now, the environmental quality of Yinchuan city gets better, but pollutant discharge pressure is high, and tends to be the break point of high environment quality and low environment. With AME, using national standard, the Yinchuan City remains a high pollution-low quality-low level of economic development state during 1996-2010. Empirical research verifies that different target reference areas and relevant national standards have different main parameters, the evaluating result has an flexible range. The dimensionless data enhances the coupling of index. The data position in model increases the visibility to the environmental management decisions. The model improves mismatches of calculated data size, time asymmetry of spatial data, verification of the former multi-target coupling model.

Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stirling, M.; Petersen, M.

2006-01-01

We compare the historical record of earthquake hazard experienced at 78 towns and cities (sites) distributed across New Zealand and the continental United States with the hazard estimated from the national probabilistic seismic-hazard (PSH) models for the two countries. The two PSH models are constructed with similar methodologies and data. Our comparisons show a tendency for the PSH models to slightly exceed the historical hazard in New Zealand and westernmost continental United States interplate regions, but show lower hazard than that of the historical record in the continental United States intraplate region. Factors such as non-Poissonian behavior, parameterization of active fault data in the PSH calculations, and uncertainties in estimation of ground-motion levels from historical felt intensity data for the interplate regions may have led to the higher-than-historical levels of hazard at the interplate sites. In contrast, the less-than-historical hazard for the remaining continental United States (intraplate) sites may be largely due to site conditions not having been considered at the intraplate sites, and uncertainties in correlating ground-motion levels to historical felt intensities. The study also highlights the importance of evaluating PSH models at more than one region, because the conclusions reached on the basis of a solely interplate or intraplate study would be very different.

Modeling of road traffic noise and estimated human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, USA.

PubMed

Seong, Jeong C; Park, Tae H; Ko, Joon H; Chang, Seo I; Kim, Minho; Holt, James B; Mehdi, Mohammed R

2011-11-01

Environmental noise is a major source of public complaints. Noise in the community causes physical and socio-economic effects and has been shown to be related to adverse health impacts. Noise, however, has not been actively researched in the United States compared with the European Union countries in recent years. In this research, we aimed at modeling road traffic noise and analyzing human exposure in Fulton County, Georgia, United States. We modeled road traffic noise levels using the United States Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Traffic Noise Model implemented in SoundPLAN®. After analyzing noise levels with raster, vector and façade maps, we estimated human exposure to high noise levels. Accurate digital elevation models and building heights were derived from Light Detection And Ranging survey datasets and building footprint boundaries. Traffic datasets were collected from the Georgia Department of Transportation and the Atlanta Regional Commission. Noise level simulation was performed with 62 computers in a distributed computing environment. Finally, the noise-exposed population was calculated using geographic information system techniques. Results show that 48% of the total county population [N=870,166 residents] is potentially exposed to 55 dB(A) or higher noise levels during daytime. About 9% of the population is potentially exposed to 67 dB(A) or higher noises. At nighttime, 32% of the population is expected to be exposed to noise levels higher than 50 dB(A). This research shows that large-scale traffic noise estimation is possible with the help of various organizations. We believe that this research is a significant stepping stone for analyzing community health associated with noise exposures in the United States. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

(Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruckert, K. L.; Guan, Y.; Shaffer, G.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.

2015-12-01

(Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level ChangesKelsey L. Ruckert1*, Yawen Guan2, Chris E. Forest1,3,7, Gary Shaffer 4,5,6, and Klaus Keller1,7,81 Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 2 Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 3 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 4 GAIA_Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile 5 Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile 6 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 7 Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 8 Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail klr324@psu.eduUnderstanding and projecting future sea-level changes poses nontrivial challenges. Sea-level changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of seawater as well as changes in the size of glaciers and ice sheets. Previous studies have demonstrated that a key source of uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections is the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures. Here we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple model of the Antarctic ice sheet over a hindcast period from the last interglacial period to the present. We apply and compare a range of (pre-) calibration methods, including a Bayesian approach that accounts for heteroskedasticity. We compare the model hindcasts and projections for different levels of model complexity and calibration methods. We compare the projections with the upper bounds from previous studies and find our projections have a narrower range in 2100. Furthermore we discuss the implications for the design of climate risk management strategies.

Washington State Community Colleges: Impact on the Economy of the State.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Sally; And Others

Using a Virginia study as a model, this study assessed the effect on Washington state's economy of its 27 campus community college system. The study was based on a simple circular cash-flow model for the years 1969-1976 and measured economic impact in three areas: on the level of business volume done in-state, on employment, and on total state…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrill, J.S.; Benesch, W.M.

Previous model results have shown that the N{sub 2} triplet vibrational level populations in the aurora are strongly affected by cascade and quenching by atomic and molecular oxygen. As the aurora penetrates to lower altitudes (less than 100 km) the role of quenching by atomic oxygen becomes less important and processes involving N{sub 2} collisions begin to play a more prominent part. The authors are developing a model which will yield steady state vibrational level populations for both the singlet and triplet valence states of N{sub 2}. The model currently provides results for the seven low-lying N{sub 2} triplet statesmore » (A {sup 3}{Sigma}{sub u}{sup +}, B {sup 3}{Pi}{sub g}, W {sup 3}{Delta}{sub u}, B{prime}{sup 3}{Sigma}{sub u}, C{sup 3}{Pi}{sub u}, D{sup 3}{Sigma}{sub u}{sup +}, and E{sup 3}{Sigma}{sub g}{sup +}). These states are responsible for auroral emissions from the UV (Vegard-Kaplan (VK), second positive (2PG)) through the visible to the infrared (first positive (1PG), infrared afterglow (IRA), Wu-Benesch (WB)). The authors have included two additional collisional processes in the current model which were not treated previously. These are the intersystem collisional transfer of excitation (ICT) between the B state and the A, W, and B{prime} states and vibrational redistribution within the A state vibrational manifold, both due to collisions with ground state N{sub 2}. The present work compares the current model results with those of a previous model as well as ground, airborne, and rocket observations. The comparison between N{sub 2}(A) (VK) and N{sub 2}(B) (1PG) vibrational level populations predicted by this model and a number of auroral observations indicate that the current model achieves a significant improvement in the fit between calculation and observation. 81 refs., 12 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Predicting Periodontitis at State and Local Levels in the United States.

PubMed

Eke, P I; Zhang, X; Lu, H; Wei, L; Thornton-Evans, G; Greenlund, K J; Holt, J B; Croft, J B

2016-05-01

The objective of the study was to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis at state and local levels across the United States by using a novel, small area estimation (SAE) method. Extended multilevel regression and poststratification analyses were used to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis among adults aged 30 to 79 y at state, county, congressional district, and census tract levels by using periodontal data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2012, population counts from the 2010 US census, and smoking status estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in 2012. The SAE method used age, race, gender, smoking, and poverty variables to estimate the prevalence of periodontitis as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/American Academy of Periodontology case definitions at the census block levels and aggregated to larger administrative and geographic areas of interest. Model-based SAEs were validated against national estimates directly from NHANES 2009-2012. Estimated prevalence of periodontitis ranged from 37.7% in Utah to 52.8% in New Mexico among the states (mean, 45.1%; median, 44.9%) and from 33.7% to 68% among counties (mean, 46.6%; median, 45.9%). Severe periodontitis ranged from 7.27% in New Hampshire to 10.26% in Louisiana among the states (mean, 8.9%; median, 8.8%) and from 5.2% to 17.9% among counties (mean, 9.2%; median, 8.8%). Overall, the predicted prevalence of periodontitis was highest for southeastern and southwestern states and for geographic areas in the Southeast along the Mississippi Delta, as well as along the US and Mexico border. Aggregated model-based SAEs were consistent with national prevalence estimates from NHANES 2009-2012. This study is the first-ever estimation of periodontitis prevalence at state and local levels in the United States, and this modeling approach complements public health surveillance efforts to identify areas with a high burden of periodontitis. © International & American Associations for Dental Research 2016.

Dynamical Evolution of Properties for Atom and Field in the Process of Two-Photon Absorption and Emission Between Atomic Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian-ming; Xu, Xue-xiang

2018-04-01

Using dressed state method, we cleverly solve the dynamics of atom-field interaction in the process of two-photon absorption and emission between atomic levels. Here we suppose that the atom is initially in the ground state and the optical field is initially in Fock state, coherent state or thermal state, respectively. The properties of the atom, including the population in excited state and ground state, the atom inversion, and the properties for optical field, including the photon number distribution, the mean photon number, the second-order correlation function and the Wigner function, are discussed in detail. We derive their analytical expressions and then make numerical analysis for them. In contrast with Jaynes-Cummings model, some similar results, such as quantum Rabi oscillation, revival and collapse, are also exhibit in our considered model. Besides, some novel nonclassical states are generated.

Full-dimensional quantum mechanics calculations for the spectroscopic characterization of the isomerization transition states of HOCO/DOCO systems.

PubMed

Ma, Dandan; Ren, Haisheng; Ma, Jianyi

2018-02-14

Full-dimensional quantum mechanics calculations were performed to determine the vibrational energy levels of HOCO and DOCO based on an accurate potential energy surface. Almost all of the vibrational energy levels up to 3500 cm -1 from the vibrational ground state were assigned, and the calculated energy levels in this work are well in agreement with the reported results by Bowman. The corresponding full dimensional wavefunctions present some special features. When the energy level approaches the barrier height, the trans-HOCO and cis-HOCO states strongly couple through tunneling interactions, and the tunneling interaction and Fermi resonance were observed in the DOCO system. The energy level patterns of trans-HOCO, cis-HOCO and trans-DOCO provide a reasonable fitted barrier height using the fitting formula of Field et al., however, a discrepancy exists for the cis-DOCO species which is considered as a random event. Our full-dimensional calculations give positive evidence for the accuracy of the spectroscopic characterization model of the isomerization transition state reported by Field et al., which was developed from one-dimensional model systems. Furthermore, the special case of cis-DOCO in this work means that the isotopic substitution can solve the problem of the accidental failure of Field's spectroscopic characterization model.

Effect of strong disorder on three-dimensional chiral topological insulators: Phase diagrams, maps of the bulk invariant, and existence of topological extended bulk states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Juntao; Fine, Carolyn; Prodan, Emil

2014-11-01

The effect of strong disorder on chiral-symmetric three-dimensional lattice models is investigated via analytical and numerical methods. The phase diagrams of the models are computed using the noncommutative winding number, as functions of disorder strength and model's parameters. The localized/delocalized characteristic of the quantum states is probed with level statistics analysis. Our study reconfirms the accurate quantization of the noncommutative winding number in the presence of strong disorder, and its effectiveness as a numerical tool. Extended bulk states are detected above and below the Fermi level, which are observed to undergo the so-called "levitation and pair annihilation" process when the system is driven through a topological transition. This suggests that the bulk invariant is carried by these extended states, in stark contrast with the one-dimensional case where the extended states are completely absent and the bulk invariant is carried by the localized states.

Conflict between Work and Family: An Investigation of Four Policy Measures

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruppanner, Leah

2013-01-01

Welfare states enact a range of policies aimed at reducing work-family conflict. While welfare state policies have been assessed at the macro-level and work-family conflict at the individual-level, few studies have simultaneously addressed these relationships in a cross-national multi-level model. This study addresses this void by assessing the…

An explanatory model for state Medicaid per capita prescription drug expenditures.

PubMed

Roy, Sanjoy; Madhavan, S Suresh

2012-01-01

Rising prescription drug expenditure is a growing concern for publicly funded drug benefit programs like Medicaid. To be able to contain drug expenditures in Medicaid, it is important that cause(s) for such increases are identified. This study attempts to establish an explanatory model for Medicaid prescription drugs expenditure based on the impacts of key influencers/predictors identified using a comprehensive framework of drug utilization. A modified Andersen's behavior model of health services utilization is employed to identify potential determinants of pharmaceutical expenditures in state Medicaid programs. Level of federal matching funds, access to primary care, severity of diseases, unemployment, and education levels were found to be key influencers of Medicaid prescription drug expenditure. Increases in all, except education levels, were found to result in increases in drug expenditures. Findings from this study could better inform intervention policies and cost-containment strategies for state Medicaid drug benefit programs.

Modeling and experimental examination of water level effects on radon exhalation from fragmented uranium ore.

PubMed

Ye, Yong-Jun; Dai, Xin-Tao; Ding, De-Xin; Zhao, Ya-Li

2016-12-01

In this study, a one-dimensional steady-state mathematical model of radon transport in fragmented uranium ore was established according to Fick's law and radon transfer theory in an air-water interface. The model was utilized to obtain an analytical solution for radon concentration in the air-water, two-phase system under steady state conditions, as well as a corresponding radon exhalation rate calculation formula. We also designed a one-dimensional experimental apparatus for simulating radon diffusion migration in the uranium ore with various water levels to verify the mathematical model. The predicted results were in close agreement with the measured results, suggesting that the proposed model can be readily used to determine radon concentrations and exhalation rates in fragmented uranium ore with varying water levels. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Impacts of Model Building Energy Codes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Athalye, Rahul A.; Sivaraman, Deepak; Elliott, Douglas B.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Energy Codes Program (BECP) periodically evaluates national and state-level impacts associated with energy codes in residential and commercial buildings. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), funded by DOE, conducted an assessment of the prospective impacts of national model building energy codes from 2010 through 2040. A previous PNNL study evaluated the impact of the Building Energy Codes Program; this study looked more broadly at overall code impacts. This report describes the methodology used for the assessment and presents the impacts in terms of energy savings, consumer cost savings, and reduced CO 2 emissions atmore » the state level and at aggregated levels. This analysis does not represent all potential savings from energy codes in the U.S. because it excludes several states which have codes which are fundamentally different from the national model energy codes or which do not have state-wide codes. Energy codes follow a three-phase cycle that starts with the development of a new model code, proceeds with the adoption of the new code by states and local jurisdictions, and finishes when buildings comply with the code. The development of new model code editions creates the potential for increased energy savings. After a new model code is adopted, potential savings are realized in the field when new buildings (or additions and alterations) are constructed to comply with the new code. Delayed adoption of a model code and incomplete compliance with the code’s requirements erode potential savings. The contributions of all three phases are crucial to the overall impact of codes, and are considered in this assessment.« less

The Impact of School Environment and Grade Level on Student Delinquency: A Multilevel Modeling Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lo, Celia C.; Kim, Young S.; Allen, Thomas M.; Allen, Andrea N.; Minugh, P. Allison; Lomuto, Nicoletta

2011-01-01

Effects on delinquency made by grade level, school type (based on grade levels accommodated), and prosocial school climate were assessed, controlling for individual-level risk and protective factors. Data were obtained from the Substance Abuse Services Division of Alabama's state mental health agency and analyzed via hierarchical linear modeling,…

Supercomputer modelling of an electronic structure for KCl nanocrystal with edge dislocation with the use of semiempirical and nonempirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timoshenko, Yu K.; Shunina, V. A.; Shashkin, A. I.

2018-03-01

In the present work we used semiempirical and non-empirical models for electronic states of KCl nanocrystal containing edge dislocation for comparison of the obtained results. Electronic levels and local densities of states were calculated. As a result we found a reasonable qualitative correlation of semiempirical and non-empirical results. Using the results of computer modelling we discuss the problem of localization of electronic states near the line of edge dislocation.

Performability evaluation of the SIFT computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meyer, J. F.; Furchtgott, D. G.; Wu, L. T.

1979-01-01

Performability modeling and evaluation techniques are applied to the SIFT computer as it might operate in the computational evironment of an air transport mission. User-visible performance of the total system (SIFT plus its environment) is modeled as a random variable taking values in a set of levels of accomplishment. These levels are defined in terms of four attributes of total system behavior: safety, no change in mission profile, no operational penalties, and no economic process whose states describe the internal structure of SIFT as well as relavant conditions of the environment. Base model state trajectories are related to accomplishment levels via a capability function which is formulated in terms of a 3-level model hierarchy. Performability evaluation algorithms are then applied to determine the performability of the total system for various choices of computer and environment parameter values. Numerical results of those evaluations are presented and, in conclusion, some implications of this effort are discussed.

Impact of state-specific flowfield modeling on atomic nitrogen radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, Christopher O.; Panesi, Marco

2018-01-01

A hypersonic flowfield model that treats electronic levels of the dominant afterbody radiator N as individual species is presented. This model allows electron-ion recombination rate and two-temperature modeling improvements, the latter which are shown to decrease afterbody radiative heating by up to 30%. This decrease is primarily due to the addition of the electron-impact excitation energy-exchange term to the energy equation governing the vibrational-electronic electron temperature. This model also allows the validity of the often applied quasi-steady-state (QSS) approximation to be assessed. The QSS approximation is shown to fail throughout most of the afterbody region for lower electronic states, although this impacts the radiative intensity reaching the surface by less than 15%. By computing the electronic-state populations of N within the flowfield solver, instead of through the QSS approximation in the radiation solver, the coupling of nonlocal radiative transition rates to the species continuity equations becomes feasible. Implementation of this higher-fidelity level of coupling between the flowfield and radiation solvers is shown to increase the afterbody radiation by up to 50% relative to the conventional model.

An Experimental Model for Analyzing Strategies for Financing Higher Education in New York State.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

New York State Education Dept., Albany. Office of Postsecondary Research, Information Systems, and Institutional Aid.

Described is an experimental, quantitative model developed by the New York State Education Department to evaluate state-level financing strategies for higher education. It can be used to address a variety of questions and takes into account a host of direct and indirect relationships. It uses computer software and optimization algorithms developed…

Information modeling system for blast furnace control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spirin, N. A.; Gileva, L. Y.; Lavrov, V. V.

2016-09-01

Modern Iron & Steel Works as a rule are equipped with powerful distributed control systems (DCS) and databases. Implementation of DSC system solves the problem of storage, control, protection, entry, editing and retrieving of information as well as generation of required reporting data. The most advanced and promising approach is to use decision support information technologies based on a complex of mathematical models. The model decision support system for control of blast furnace smelting is designed and operated. The basis of the model system is a complex of mathematical models created using the principle of natural mathematical modeling. This principle provides for construction of mathematical models of two levels. The first level model is a basic state model which makes it possible to assess the vector of system parameters using field data and blast furnace operation results. It is also used to calculate the adjustment (adaptation) coefficients of the predictive block of the system. The second-level model is a predictive model designed to assess the design parameters of the blast furnace process when there are changes in melting conditions relative to its current state. Tasks for which software is developed are described. Characteristics of the main subsystems of the blast furnace process as an object of modeling and control - thermal state of the furnace, blast, gas dynamic and slag conditions of blast furnace smelting - are presented.

Nursing home queues and home health users.

PubMed

Swan, J H; Benjamin, A E

1993-01-01

Home health market growth suggests the need for models explaining home health utilization. We have previously explained state-level Medicare home health visits with reference to nursing home markets. Here we introduce a model whereby state-level Medicare home health use is a function of nursing home queues and other demand and supply factors. Medicare home health users per state population is negatively related to nursing home bed stock, positively to Medicaid eligibility levels and to Medicaid nursing home recipients per population, as well as to various other demand and supply measures. This explanation of home health users explains previously-reported findings for home health visits. The findings support the argument that home health use is explained by factors affecting lengths of nursing home queues.

A multi-physics model for ultrasonically activated soft tissue.

PubMed

Suvranu De, Rahul

2017-02-01

A multi-physics model has been developed to investigate the effects of cellular level mechanisms on the thermomechanical response of ultrasonically activated soft tissue. Cellular level cavitation effects have been incorporated in the tissue level continuum model to accurately determine the thermodynamic states such as temperature and pressure. A viscoelastic material model is assumed for the macromechanical response of the tissue. The cavitation model based equation-of-state provides the additional pressure arising from evaporation of intracellular and cellular water by absorbing heat due to structural and viscoelastic heating in the tissue, and temperature to the continuum level thermomechanical model. The thermomechanical response of soft tissue is studied for the operational range of frequencies of oscillations and applied loads for typical ultrasonically activated surgical instruments. The model is shown to capture characteristics of ultrasonically activated soft tissue deformation and temperature evolution. At the cellular level, evaporation of water below the boiling temperature under ambient conditions is indicative of protein denaturation around the temperature threshold for coagulation of tissues. Further, with increasing operating frequency (or loading), the temperature rises faster leading to rapid evaporation of tissue cavity water, which may lead to accelerated protein denaturation and coagulation.

Highway infrastructure : FHWA's model for estimating highway needs has been modified for state-level planning

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-02-01

Federal and state governments have played a vital role in the nation's : economy by facilitating the movement of people and goods through : significant investments in highways. At the federal level, the Department of Transportation's (DOT) Federal Hi...

Identification of measurement differences between English and Spanish language versions of the Mini-Mental State Examination. Detecting differential item functioning using MIMIC modeling.

PubMed

Jones, Richard N

2006-11-01

Knowledge of the extent to which measurement of adult cognitive functioning differs between Spanish and English language administrations of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) is critical for inclusive, representative, and valid research of older adults in the United States. We sought to demonstrate the use of an item response theory (IRT) based structural equation model, that is, the MIMIC model (multiple indicators, multiple causes), to evaluate MMSE responses for evidence of differential item functioning (DIF) attributable to language of administration. We studied participants in a dementia case registry study (n = 1546), 42% of whom were examined with the Spanish language MMSE. Twelve of 21 items were identified as having significant uniform DIF. The 4 most discrepant included orientation to season, orientation to state, repeat phrase, and follow command. DIF accounted for two-thirds of the observed difference in underlying level of cognitive functioning between Spanish- and English-language administration groups. Failing to account for measurement differences may lead to spurious inferences regarding language group differences in level of underlying level of cognitive functioning. The MIMIC model can be used to detect and adjust for such measurement differences in substantive research.

Analytical Versus Numerical Estimates of Water-Level Declines Caused by Pumping, and a Case Study of the Iao Aquifer, Maui, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Oki, Delwyn S.; Meyer, William

2001-01-01

Comparisons were made between model-calculated water levels from a one-dimensional analytical model referred to as RAM (Robust Analytical Model) and those from numerical ground-water flow models using a sharp-interface model code. RAM incorporates the horizontal-flow assumption and the Ghyben-Herzberg relation to represent flow in a one-dimensional unconfined aquifer that contains a body of freshwater floating on denser saltwater. RAM does not account for the presence of a low-permeability coastal confining unit (caprock), which impedes the discharge of fresh ground water from the aquifer to the ocean, nor for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells, which is significant because water-level declines are greatest in the vicinity of withdrawal wells. Numerical ground-water flow models can readily account for discharge through a coastal confining unit and for the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. For a given aquifer hydraulic-conductivity value, recharge rate, and withdrawal rate, model-calculated steady-state water-level declines from RAM can be significantly less than those from numerical ground-water flow models. The differences between model-calculated water-level declines from RAM and those from numerical models are partly dependent on the hydraulic properties of the aquifer system and the spatial distribution of ground-water withdrawals from wells. RAM invariably predicts the greatest water-level declines at the inland extent of the aquifer where the freshwater body is thickest and the potential for saltwater intrusion is lowest. For cases in which a low-permeability confining unit overlies the aquifer near the coast, however, water-level declines calculated from numerical models may exceed those from RAM even at the inland extent of the aquifer. Since 1990, RAM has been used by the State of Hawaii Commission on Water Resource Management for establishing sustainable-yield values for the State?s aquifers. Data from the Iao aquifer, which lies on the northeastern flank of the West Maui Volcano and which is confined near the coast by caprock, are now available to evaluate the predictive capability of RAM for this system. In 1995 and 1996, withdrawal from the Iao aquifer reached the 20 million gallon per day sustainable-yield value derived using RAM. However, even before 1996, water levels in the aquifer had declined significantly below those predicted by RAM, and continued to decline in 1997. To halt the decline of water levels and to preclude the intrusion of salt-water into the four major well fields in the aquifer, it was necessary to reduce withdrawal from the aquifer system below the sustainable-yield value derived using RAM. In the Iao aquifer, the decline of measured water levels below those predicted by RAM is consistent with the results of the numerical model analysis. Relative to model-calculated water-level declines from numerical ground-water flow models, (1) RAM underestimates water-level declines in areas where a low-permeability confining unit exists, and (2) RAM underestimates water-level declines in the vicinity of withdrawal wells.

Chinese time trade-off values for EQ-5D health states.

PubMed

Liu, Gordon G; Wu, Hongyan; Li, Minghui; Gao, Chen; Luo, Nan

2014-07-01

To generate a Chinese general population-based three-level EuroQol five-dimensios (EQ-5D-3L) social value set using the time trade-off method. The study sample was drawn from five cities in China: Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu, and Nanjing, using a quota sampling method. Utility values for a subset of 97 health states defined by the EQ-5D-3L descriptive system were directly elicited from the study sample using a modified Measurement and Valuation of Health protocol, with each respondent valuing 13 of the health states. The utility values for all 243 EQ-5D-3L health states were estimated on the basis of econometric models at both individual and aggregate levels. Various linear regression models using different model specifications were examined to determine the best model using predefined model selection criteria. The N3 model based on ordinary least square regression at the aggregate level yielded the best model fit, with a mean absolute error of 0.020, 7 and 0 states for which prediction errors were greater than 0.05 and 0.10, respectively, in absolute magnitude. This model passed tests for model misspecification (F = 2.7; P = 0.0509, Ramsey Regression Equation Specification Error Test), heteroskedasticity (χ(2) = 0.97; P = 0.3254, Breusch-Pagan/Cook-Weisberg test), and normality of the residuals (χ(2) = 1.285; P = 0.5259, Jarque-Bera test). The range of the predicted values (-0.149 to 0.887) was similar to those estimated in other countries. The study successfully developed Chinese utility values for EQ-5D-3L health states using the time trade-off method. It is the first attempt ever to develop a standardized instrument for quantifying quality-adjusted life-years in China. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effects of State Medicaid Expansion on Low-Income Individuals' Access to Health Care: Multilevel Modeling.

PubMed

Choi, Sunha; Lee, Sungkyu; Matejkowski, Jason

2018-06-01

This study aimed to examine how states' Medicaid expansion affected insurance status and access to health care among low-income expansion state residents in 2015, the second year of the expansion. Data from the 2012 and 2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were linked to state-level data. A nationally representative sample of 544,307 adults (ages 26-64 years) from 50 states and Washington, DC were analyzed using multilevel modeling. The results indicate substantial increases in health care access between 2012 and 2015 among low-income adults in Medicaid expansion states. The final conditional multilevel models with low-income adults who had income at or below 138% of the poverty line indicate that, after controlling for individual- and state-level covariates, those who resided in the Medicaid expansion states were more likely to have health insurance (OR = 1.97, P < .001), have a usual source of care (OR = 1.37, P < .01), and receive a routine checkup (OR = 1.24, P < .01), and were less likely to not see a doctor because of cost (OR = 0.66, P < .001) compared with low-income residents in non-expansion states in 2015. Moreover, the significant interaction terms indicate that adults living in non-expansion states with income below 100% of the poverty line are the most vulnerable compared with their counterparts in expansion states and with those with income between 100%-138% of the poverty line. This study demonstrates that state-level Medicaid expansion improved health care access among low-income US residents. However, residents with income below 100% of the poverty line in non-expansion states were disproportionately negatively affected by states' decision to not expand Medicaid coverage.

Fast-timing lifetime measurements of excited states in Cu67

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

NiÅ£ǎ, C. R.; Bucurescu, D.; Mǎrginean, N.; Avrigeanu, M.; Bocchi, G.; Bottoni, S.; Bracco, A.; Bruce, A. M.; Cǎta-Danil, G.; Coló, G.; Deleanu, D.; Filipescu, D.; GhiÅ£ǎ, D. G.; Glodariu, T.; Leoni, S.; Mihai, C.; Mason, P. J. R.; Mǎrginean, R.; Negret, A.; Pantelicǎ, D.; Podolyak, Z.; Regan, P. H.; Sava, T.; Stroe, L.; Toma, S.; Ur, C. A.; Wilson, E.

2014-06-01

The half-lives of the 9/2+, 13/2+, and 15/2+ yrast states in the neutron-rich Cu67 nucleus were determined by using the in-beam fast-timing technique. The experimentally deduced E3 transition strength for the decay of the 9/2+ level to the 3/2- ground state indicates that the wave function of this level might contain a collective component arising from the coupling of the odd proton p3/2 with the 3- state in Ni66. Theoretical interpretations of the 9/2+ state are presented within the particle-vibration weak-coupling scheme involving the unpaired proton and the 3- state from Ni66 and within shell-model calculations with a Ni56 core using the jj44b residual interaction. The shell model also accounts reasonably well for the other measured electromagnetic transition probabilities.

The Effect of an Increased Minimum Wage on Infant Mortality and Birth Weight

PubMed Central

Livingston, Melvin D.; Markowitz, Sara; Wagenaar, Alexander C.

2016-01-01

Objectives. To investigate the effects of state minimum wage laws on low birth weight and infant mortality in the United States. Methods. We estimated the effects of state-level minimum wage laws using a difference-in-differences approach on rates of low birth weight (< 2500 g) and postneonatal mortality (28–364 days) by state and month from 1980 through 2011. All models included state and year fixed effects as well as state-specific covariates. Results. Across all models, a dollar increase in the minimum wage above the federal level was associated with a 1% to 2% decrease in low birth weight births and a 4% decrease in postneonatal mortality. Conclusions. If all states in 2014 had increased their minimum wages by 1 dollar, there would likely have been 2790 fewer low birth weight births and 518 fewer postneonatal deaths for the year. PMID:27310355

The Effect of an Increased Minimum Wage on Infant Mortality and Birth Weight.

PubMed

Komro, Kelli A; Livingston, Melvin D; Markowitz, Sara; Wagenaar, Alexander C

2016-08-01

To investigate the effects of state minimum wage laws on low birth weight and infant mortality in the United States. We estimated the effects of state-level minimum wage laws using a difference-in-differences approach on rates of low birth weight (< 2500 g) and postneonatal mortality (28-364 days) by state and month from 1980 through 2011. All models included state and year fixed effects as well as state-specific covariates. Across all models, a dollar increase in the minimum wage above the federal level was associated with a 1% to 2% decrease in low birth weight births and a 4% decrease in postneonatal mortality. If all states in 2014 had increased their minimum wages by 1 dollar, there would likely have been 2790 fewer low birth weight births and 518 fewer postneonatal deaths for the year.

Stimulated emission pumping spectroscopy of the [X](1)A' state of CHF.

PubMed

Mukarakate, Calvin; Tao, Chong; Jordan, Christopher D; Polik, William F; Reid, Scott A

2008-01-24

We have recorded stimulated emission pumping (SEP) spectra of the A1A' ' 1A' system of CHF, which reveal rich detail concerning the rovibronic structure of the 1A' state up to approximately 7000 cm-1 above the vibrationless level. Using several intermediate A1A' ' state levels, we obtained rotationally resolved spectra for 16 of the 33 levels observed in our previous single vibronic level (SVL) emission study (Fan et al., J. Chem. Phys. 2005, 123, 014314), in addition to one new level. An anharmonic effective Hamiltonian model poorly reproduces the term energies even with the improved set of data because of the extensive interactions among levels in a given polyad (p) having combinations of nu1, nu2, nu3, which satisfy the relationship p = 2nu1 + nu2 + nu3. However, the precise A rotational constants determined from the SEP data were invaluable in clarifying the assignments for these strongly perturbed levels, and the data are well reproduced using a multiresonance effective Hamiltonian model. The derived vibrational parameters are in good agreement with high level ab initio calculations. The experimental frequencies were combined with those of CDF to derive a harmonic force field and average (rz,r(z)e) structures for the ground state.

Two-state model based on the block-localized wave function method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, Yirong

2007-06-01

The block-localized wave function (BLW) method is a variant of ab initio valence bond method but retains the efficiency of molecular orbital methods. It can derive the wave function for a diabatic (resonance) state self-consistently and is available at the Hartree-Fock (HF) and density functional theory (DFT) levels. In this work we present a two-state model based on the BLW method. Although numerous empirical and semiempirical two-state models, such as the Marcus-Hush two-state model, have been proposed to describe a chemical reaction process, the advantage of this BLW-based two-state model is that no empirical parameter is required. Important quantities such as the electronic coupling energy, structural weights of two diabatic states, and excitation energy can be uniquely derived from the energies of two diabatic states and the adiabatic state at the same HF or DFT level. Two simple examples of formamide and thioformamide in the gas phase and aqueous solution were presented and discussed. The solvation of formamide and thioformamide was studied with the combined ab initio quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical Monte Carlo simulations, together with the BLW-DFT calculations and analyses. Due to the favorable solute-solvent electrostatic interaction, the contribution of the ionic resonance structure to the ground state of formamide and thioformamide significantly increases, and for thioformamide the ionic form is even more stable than the covalent form. Thus, thioformamide in aqueous solution is essentially ionic rather than covalent. Although our two-state model in general underestimates the electronic excitation energies, it can predict relative solvatochromic shifts well. For instance, the intense π →π* transition for formamide upon solvation undergoes a redshift of 0.3eV, compared with the experimental data (0.40-0.5eV).

A quantitative systems pharmacology model of blood coagulation network describes in vivo biomarker changes in non-bleeding subjects.

PubMed

Lee, D; Nayak, S; Martin, S W; Heatherington, A C; Vicini, P; Hua, F

2016-12-01

Essentials Baseline coagulation activity can be detected in non-bleeding state by in vivo biomarker levels. A detailed mathematical model of coagulation was developed to describe the non-bleeding state. Optimized model described in vivo biomarkers with recombinant activated factor VII treatment. Sensitivity analysis predicted prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 and D-dimer are regulated differently. Background Prothrombin fragment 1 + 2 (F 1 + 2 ), thrombin-antithrombin III complex (TAT) and D-dimer can be detected in plasma from non-bleeding hemostatically normal subjects or hemophilic patients. They are often used as safety or pharmacodynamic biomarkers for hemostatis-modulating therapies in the clinic, and provide insights into in vivo coagulation activity. Objectives To develop a quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model of the blood coagulation network to describe in vivo biomarkers, including F 1 + 2 , TAT, and D-dimer, under non-bleeding conditions. Methods The QSP model included intrinsic and extrinsic coagulation pathways, platelet activation state-dependent kinetics, and a two-compartment pharmacokinetics model for recombinant activated factor VII (rFVIIa). Literature data on F 1 + 2 and D-dimer at baseline and changes with rFVIIa treatment were used for parameter optimization. Multiparametric sensitivity analysis (MPSA) was used to understand key proteins that regulate F 1 + 2 , TAT and D-dimer levels. Results The model was able to describe tissue factor (TF)-dependent baseline levels of F 1 + 2 , TAT and D-dimer in a non-bleeding state, and their increases in hemostatically normal subjects and hemophilic patients treated with different doses of rFVIIa. The amount of TF required is predicted to be very low in a non-bleeding state. The model also predicts that these biomarker levels will be similar in hemostatically normal subjects and hemophilic patients. MPSA revealed that F 1 + 2 and TAT levels are highly correlated, and that D-dimer is more sensitive to the perturbation of coagulation protein concentrations. Conclusions A QSP model for non-bleeding baseline coagulation activity was established with data from clinically relevant in vivo biomarkers at baseline and changes in response to rFVIIa treatment. This model will provide future mechanistic insights into this system. © 2016 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Analytical ground state for the Jaynes-Cummings model with ultrastrong coupling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang Yuanwei; Institute of Theoretical Physics, Shanxi University, Taiyuan 030006; Chen Gang

2011-06-15

We present a generalized variational method to analytically obtain the ground-state properties of the Jaynes-Cummings model with the ultrastrong coupling. An explicit expression for the ground-state energy, which agrees well with the numerical simulation in a wide range of the experimental parameters, is given. In particular, the introduced method can successfully solve this Jaynes-Cummings model with the positive detuning (the atomic resonant level is larger than the photon frequency), which cannot be treated in the adiabatical approximation and the generalized rotating-wave approximation. Finally, we also demonstrate analytically how to control the mean photon number by means of the current experimentalmore » parameters including the photon frequency, the coupling strength, and especially the atomic resonant level.« less

Inclusive state immigrant policies and health insurance among Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, and White noncitizens in the United States.

PubMed

Young, Maria-Elena De Trinidad; Leon-Perez, Gabriela; Wells, Christine R; Wallace, Steven P

2017-10-20

Policy-making related to immigrant populations is increasingly conducted at the state-level. State policy contexts may influence health insurance coverage by determining noncitizens' access to social and economic resources and shaping social environments. Using nationally representative data, we investigate the relationship between level of inclusion of state immigrant policies and health insurance coverage and its variation by citizenship and race/ethnicity. Data included a measure of level of inclusion of the state policy context from a scan of 10 policies enacted prior to 2014 and data for adults ages 18-64 from the 2014 American Community Survey. A fixed-effects logistic regression model tested the association between having health insurance and the interaction of level of inclusiveness, citizenship, and race/ethnicity, controlling for state- and individual-level characteristics. Latino noncitizens experienced higher rates of being insured in states with higher levels of inclusion, while Asian/Pacific Islander noncitizens experienced lower levels. The level of inclusion was not associated with differences in insurance coverage among noncitizen Whites and Blacks. Contexts with more inclusive immigrant policies may have the most benefit for Latino noncitizens.

Social Context and Dental Pain in Adults of Colombian Ethnic Minority Groups: A Multilevel Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Ardila, Carlos M; Agudelo-Suárez, Andrés A

2016-01-01

To estimate the effect of social context on dental pain in adults of Colombian ethnic minority groups (CEGs). Information from 34,843 participants was used. A multilevel model was constructed that had ethnic groups (ie, CEGs and non-CEGs) at level 1 and Colombian states at level 2. Contextual variables included gross domestic product (GDP), Human Development Index (HDI), and Unmet Basic Needs Index (UBNI). Dental pain was observed in 12.3% of 6,440 CEGs. In an unadjusted logistic regression model, dental pain was associated with being a CEG (odds ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.34 [1.22-1.46]; P = .0001). This association remained significant after adjusting for possible confounding variables. An unconditional multilevel analysis showed that the variance in dental pain was statistically significant at the ethnic group level (β = 0.047 ± 0.015; P = .0009) and at the state level (β = 0.038 ± 0.019; P = .02) and that the variation between ethnic groups was higher than the variation between states (55% vs 45%, respectively). In a multivariate model, the variance in dental pain was also statistically significant at the ethnic group level (β = 0.029 ± 0.012; P = .007) and the state level (β = 0.042 ± .019; P = .01), but the variation between states was higher (40% vs 60%). The results of multilevel multivariate analyses showed that dental pain was associated with increasing age (β = 0.009 ± 0.001; P = .0001), lower education level (β = 0.302 ± 0.103; P = .0001), female sex (β = 0.031 ± 0.069; P = .003), GDP (β = 5.136 ± 2.009; P = .002) and HDI (β = 6.862 ± 5.550; P = .004); however, UBNI was not associated with dental pain. The variance in dental pain was higher between states than between ethnic groups in the multivariate multilevel model. Dental pain in CEGs was associated with contextual and individual factors. Considering contextual factors, GDP and HDI may play a major role in dental pain prevalence.

Ecological and social patterns of child dietary diversity in India: a population-based study.

PubMed

Gausman, Jewel; Perkins, Jessica M; Lee, Hwa-Young; Mejia-Guevara, Ivan; Nam, You-Seon; Lee, Jong-Koo; Oh, Juhwan; Subramanian, S V

2018-02-13

Dietary diversity (DD) measures dietary variation in children. Factors at the child, community, and state levels may be associated with poor child nutritional outcomes. However, few studies have examined the role of macro-level factors on child DD. This study seeks to 1) describe the distribution of child DD in India, 2) examine the variation in DD attributable to the child, community and state levels, and 3) explore the relationship between community socioeconomic context and child DD. Using nationally representative data from children aged 6-23 months in India, multilevel models were used to determine the associations between child DD and individual- and community-level factors. There was substantial variation in child DD score across demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. In an age and sex-only adjusted regression model, the largest portion of variation in child DD was attributable to the child level (75%) while the portions of variance attributable to the community-level and state level were similar to each other (15% and 11%). Including individual-level socioeconomic factors explained 35.6 percent of the total variation attributed to child DD at the community level and 24.8 percent of the total variation attributed to child DD at the state level. Finally, measures of community disadvantage were associated with child DD in when added to the fully adjusted model. This study suggests that both individual and contextual factors are associated with child DD. These results suggest that a population-based approach combined with a targeted intervention for at-risk children may be needed to improve child DD in India. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling photovoltaic diffusion: an analysis of geospatial datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Carolyn; Drury, Easan; Lopez, Anthony; Elmore, Ryan; Margolis, Robert

2014-07-01

This study combines address-level residential photovoltaic (PV) adoption trends in California with several types of geospatial information—population demographics, housing characteristics, foreclosure rates, solar irradiance, vehicle ownership preferences, and others—to identify which subsets of geospatial information are the best predictors of historical PV adoption. Number of rooms, heating source and house age were key variables that had not been previously explored in the literature, but are consistent with the expected profile of a PV adopter. The strong relationship provided by foreclosure indicators and mortgage status have less of an intuitive connection to PV adoption, but may be highly correlated with characteristics inherent in PV adopters. Next, we explore how these predictive factors and model performance varies between different Investor Owned Utility (IOU) regions in California, and at different spatial scales. Results suggest that models trained with small subsets of geospatial information (five to eight variables) may provide similar explanatory power as models using hundreds of geospatial variables. Further, the predictive performance of models generally decreases at higher resolution, i.e., below ZIP code level since several geospatial variables with coarse native resolution become less useful for representing high resolution variations in PV adoption trends. However, for California we find that model performance improves if parameters are trained at the regional IOU level rather than the state-wide level. We also find that models trained within one IOU region are generally representative for other IOU regions in CA, suggesting that a model trained with data from one state may be applicable in another state.

Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

2004-01-01

There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

Macro-level pedestrian and bicycle crash analysis: Incorporating spatial spillover effects in dual state count models.

PubMed

Cai, Qing; Lee, Jaeyoung; Eluru, Naveen; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed

2016-08-01

This study attempts to explore the viability of dual-state models (i.e., zero-inflated and hurdle models) for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) based pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency analysis. Additionally, spatial spillover effects are explored in the models by employing exogenous variables from neighboring zones. The dual-state models such as zero-inflated negative binomial and hurdle negative binomial models (with and without spatial effects) are compared with the conventional single-state model (i.e., negative binomial). The model comparison for pedestrian and bicycle crashes revealed that the models that considered observed spatial effects perform better than the models that did not consider the observed spatial effects. Across the models with spatial spillover effects, the dual-state models especially zero-inflated negative binomial model offered better performance compared to single-state models. Moreover, the model results clearly highlighted the importance of various traffic, roadway, and sociodemographic characteristics of the TAZ as well as neighboring TAZs on pedestrian and bicycle crash frequency. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personalized State-space Modeling of Glucose Dynamics for Type 1 Diabetes Using Continuously Monitored Glucose, Insulin Dose, and Meal Intake: An Extended Kalman Filter Approach.

PubMed

Wang, Qian; Molenaar, Peter; Harsh, Saurabh; Freeman, Kenneth; Xie, Jinyu; Gold, Carol; Rovine, Mike; Ulbrecht, Jan

2014-03-01

An essential component of any artificial pancreas is on the prediction of blood glucose levels as a function of exogenous and endogenous perturbations such as insulin dose, meal intake, and physical activity and emotional tone under natural living conditions. In this article, we present a new data-driven state-space dynamic model with time-varying coefficients that are used to explicitly quantify the time-varying patient-specific effects of insulin dose and meal intake on blood glucose fluctuations. Using the 3-variate time series of glucose level, insulin dose, and meal intake of an individual type 1 diabetic subject, we apply an extended Kalman filter (EKF) to estimate time-varying coefficients of the patient-specific state-space model. We evaluate our empirical modeling using (1) the FDA-approved UVa/Padova simulator with 30 virtual patients and (2) clinical data of 5 type 1 diabetic patients under natural living conditions. Compared to a forgetting-factor-based recursive ARX model of the same order, the EKF model predictions have higher fit, and significantly better temporal gain and J index and thus are superior in early detection of upward and downward trends in glucose. The EKF based state-space model developed in this article is particularly suitable for model-based state-feedback control designs since the Kalman filter estimates the state variable of the glucose dynamics based on the measured glucose time series. In addition, since the model parameters are estimated in real time, this model is also suitable for adaptive control. © 2014 Diabetes Technology Society.

Population decay time and distribution of exciton states analyzed by rate equations based on theoretical phononic and electron-collisional rate coefficients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, Kensuke; Ma, Bei; Ishitani, Yoshihiro

2017-11-01

Population distributions and transition fluxes of the A exciton in bulk GaN are theoretically analyzed using rate equations of states of the principal quantum number n up to 5 and the continuum. These rate equations consist of the terms of radiative, electron-collisional, and phononic processes. The dependence of the rate coefficients on temperature is revealed on the basis of the collisional-radiative model of hydrogen plasma for the electron-collisional processes and theoretical formulation using Fermi's "golden rule" for the phononic processes. The respective effects of the variations in electron, exciton, and lattice temperatures are exhibited. This analysis is a base of the discussion on nonthermal equilibrium states of carrier-exciton-phonon dynamics. It is found that the exciton dissociation is enhanced even below 150 K mainly by the increase in the lattice temperature. When the thermal-equilibrium temperature increases, the population fluxes between the states of n >1 and the continuum become more dominant. Below 20 K, the severe deviation from the Saha-Boltzmann distribution occurs owing to the interband excitation flux being higher than the excitation flux from the 1 S state. The population decay time of the 1 S state at 300 K is more than ten times longer than the recombination lifetime of excitons with kinetic energy but without the upper levels (n >1 and the continuum). This phenomenon is caused by a shift of population distribution to the upper levels. This phonon-exciton-radiation model gives insights into the limitations of conventional analyses such as the ABC model, the Arrhenius plot, the two-level model (n =1 and the continuum), and the neglect of the upper levels.

The structure of 193Au within the Interacting Boson Fermion Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, T.; Bernards, C.; Régis, J.-M.; Albers, M.; Fransen, C.; Jolie, J.; Heinze, S.; Radeck, D.; Warr, N.; Zell, K.-O.

2014-02-01

A γγ angular correlation experiment investigating the nucleus 193Au is presented. In this work the level scheme of 193Au is extended by new level information on spins, multipolarities and newly observed states. The new results are compared with theoretical predictions from a general Interacting Boson Fermion Model (IBFM) calculation for the positive-parity states. The experimental data is in good agreement with an IBFM calculation using all proton orbitals between the shell closures at Z=50 and Z=126. As a dominant contribution of the d orbital to the wave function of the lowest excited states is observed, a truncated model of the IBFM using a Bose-Fermi symmetry is applied to the describe 193Au. Using the parameters of a fit performed for 193Au, the level scheme of 192Pt, the supersymmetric partner of 193Au, is predicted but shows a too small boson seniority splitting. We obtained a common fit by including states observed in 192Pt. With the new parameters a supersymmetric description of both nuclei is established.

Simulation of ground-water flow in glaciofluvial aquifers in the Grand Rapids area, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Perry M.

2004-01-01

A calibrated steady-state, finite-difference, ground-waterflow model was constructed to simulate ground-water flow in three glaciofluvial aquifers, defined in this report as the upper, middle, and lower aquifers, in an area of about 114 mi2 surrounding the city of Grand Rapids in north-central Minnesota. The calibrated model will be used by Minnesota Department of Health and communities in the Grand Rapids area in the development of wellhead protection plans for their water supplies. The model was calibrated through comparison of simulated ground-water levels to measured static water levels in 351 wells, and comparison of simulated base-flow rates to estimated base-flow rates for reaches of the Mississippi and Prairie Rivers. Model statistics indicate that the model tends to overestimate ground-water levels. The root mean square errors ranged from +12.83 ft in wells completed in the upper aquifer to +19.10 ft in wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean absolute differences between simulated and measured water levels ranged from +4.43 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +9.25 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer. Mean algebraic differences ranged from +9.35 ft for wells completed in the upper aquifer to +14.44 ft for wells completed in the middle aquifer, with the positive differences indicating that the simulated water levels were higher than the measured water levels. Percentage errors between simulated and estimated base-flow rates for the three monitored reaches all were less than 10 percent, indicating good agreement. Simulated ground-water levels were most sensitive to changes in general-head boundary conductance, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state water-level conditions. Simulated groundwater flow to stream reaches was most sensitive to changes in horizontal hydraulic conductivity, indicating that this characteristic is the predominant model input variable controlling steady-state flow conditions.

Resource Allocation Models and Accountability: A Jamaican Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nkrumah-Young, Kofi K.; Powell, Philip

2008-01-01

Higher education institutions (HEIs) may be funded privately, by the state or by a mixture of the two. Nevertheless, any state financing of HE necessitates a mechanism to determine the level of support and the channels through which it is to be directed; that is, a resource allocation model. Public funding, through resource allocation models,…

Jet-cooled laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy of cyclohexoxy: rotational and fine structure of molecules in nearly degenerate electronic States.

PubMed

Liu, Jinjun; Miller, Terry A

2014-12-26

The rotational structure of the previously observed B̃(2)A' ← X̃(2)A″ and B̃(2)A' ← Ã(2)A' laser-induced fluorescence spectra of jet-cooled cyclohexoxy radical (c-C6H11O) [ Zu, L.; Liu, J.; Tarczay, G.; Dupré, P; Miller, T. A. Jet-cooled laser spectroscopy of the cyclohexoxy radical. J. Chem. Phys. 2004 , 120 , 10579 ] has been analyzed and simulated using a spectroscopic model that includes the coupling between the nearly degenerate X̃ and à states separated by ΔE. The rotational and fine structure of these two states is reproduced by a 2-fold model using one set of molecular constants including rotational constants, spin-rotation constants (ε's), the Coriolis constant (Aζt), the quenched spin-orbit constant (aζed), and the vibronic energy separation between the two states (ΔE0). The energy level structure of both states can also be reproduced using an isolated-state asymmetric top model with rotational constants and effective spin-rotation constants (ε's) and without involving Coriolis and spin-orbit constants. However, the spin-orbit interaction introduces transitions that have no intensity using the isolated-state model but appear in the observed spectra. The line intensities are well simulated using the 2-fold model with an out-of-plane (b-) transition dipole moment for the B̃ ← X̃ transitions and in-plane (a and c) transition dipole moment for the B̃ ← à transitions, requiring the symmetry for the X̃ (Ã) state to be A″ (A'), which is consistent with a previous determination and opposite to that of isopropoxy, the smallest secondary alkoxy radical. The experimentally determined Ã-X̃ separation and the energy level ordering of these two states with different (A' and A″) symmetries are consistent with quantum chemical calculations. The 2-fold model also enables the independent determination of the two contributions to the Ã-X̃ separation: the relativistic spin-orbit interaction (magnetic effect) and the nonrelativistic vibronic separation between the lowest vibrational energy levels of these two states due to both electrostatic interaction (Coulombic effect) and difference in zero-point energies (kinetic effect).

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.

2014-02-01

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleoclimate data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henley, B. J.; Thyer, M. A.; Kuczera, G. A.

2012-12-01

A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. To characterize long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate and instrumental data describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yrs is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run-lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. Model selection techniques were used to determine a suitable stochastic model to simulate these run-lengths. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, was found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and was rejected in favor of a gamma distribution. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. Application to two high-quality rainfall sites close to water supply reservoirs found that mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry state was 15%-28% lower than the wet state. The model was able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multi-year accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations for the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive AR(1) model was unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Furthermore, analysis of the impact of the CIMSS framework on drought risk analysis found that short-term drought risks conditional on IPO/PDO state were considerably higher than the traditional AR(1) model.hort-term conditional water supply drought risks for the CIMSS and AR(1) models for the dry IPO-PDO scenario with a range of initial storage levels expressed as a proportion of the annual demand (yield).

Lithium-ion battery cell-level control using constrained model predictive control and equivalent circuit models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xavier, Marcelo A.; Trimboli, M. Scott

2015-07-01

This paper introduces a novel application of model predictive control (MPC) to cell-level charging of a lithium-ion battery utilizing an equivalent circuit model of battery dynamics. The approach employs a modified form of the MPC algorithm that caters for direct feed-though signals in order to model near-instantaneous battery ohmic resistance. The implementation utilizes a 2nd-order equivalent circuit discrete-time state-space model based on actual cell parameters; the control methodology is used to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints. Results show that MPC is well-suited to the dynamics of the battery control problem and further suggest significant performance improvements might be achieved by extending the result to electrochemical models.

Identifying Electricity Capacity at Risk to Changes in Climate and Water Resources in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miara, A.; Macknick, J.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Newmark, R. L.; Tidwell, V. C.; Cohen, S. M.

2016-12-01

Thermoelectric plants supply 85% of electricity generation in the United States. Under a warming climate, the performance of these power plants may be reduced, as thermoelectric generation is dependent upon cool ambient temperatures and sufficient water supplies at adequate temperatures. In this study, we assess the vulnerability and reliability of 1,100 operational power plants (2015) across the contiguous United States under a comprehensive set of climate scenarios (five Global Circulation Models each with four Representative Concentration Pathways). We model individual power plant capacities using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution model (TP2M) coupled with the Water Balance Model (WBM) at a daily temporal resolution and 5x5 km spatial resolution. Together, these models calculate power plant capacity losses that account for geophysical constraints and river network dynamics. Potential losses at the single-plant level are put into a regional energy security context by assessing the collective system-level reliability at the North-American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions. Results show that the thermoelectric sector at the national level has low vulnerability under the contemporary climate and that system-level reliability in terms of available thermoelectric resources relative to thermoelectric demand is sufficient. Under future climates scenarios, changes in water availability and warm ambient temperatures lead to constraints on operational capacity and increased vulnerability at individual power plant sites across all regions in the United States. However, there is a strong disparity in regional vulnerability trends and magnitudes that arise from each region's climate, hydrology and technology mix. Despite increases in vulnerabilities at the individual power plant level, regional energy systems may still be reliable (with no system failures) due to sufficient back-up reserve capacities.

STEADY STATE FLAMMABLE GAS RELEASE RATE CALCULATION AND LOWER FLAMMABILITY LEVEL EVALUATION FOR HANFORD TANK WASTE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

HU TA

2009-10-26

Assess the steady-state flammability level at normal and off-normal ventilation conditions. The hydrogen generation rate was calculated for 177 tanks using the rate equation model. Flammability calculations based on hydrogen, ammonia, and methane were performed for 177 tanks for various scenarios.

Why do we need three levels to understand the molecular optical response?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Moreno, Javier; Clays, Koen; Kuzyk, Mark G.

2011-10-01

Traditionally, the nonlinear optical response at the molecular level has been modeled using the two-level approximation, under the assumption that the behavior of the exact sum-over-states (SOS) expressions for the molecular polarizabilities is well represented by the contribution of only two levels. We show how, a rigorous application of the Thomas-Kuhn sum-rules over the SOS expression for the diagonal component of the first-hyperpolarziability proves that the two-level approximation is unphysical. In addition, we indicate how the contributions of potentially infinite number of states to the SOS expressions for the first-hyperpolarizability are well represented by the contributions of a generic three-level system. This explains why the analysis of the three-level model in conjugation with the sum rules has lead to successful paradigms for the optimization of organic chromophores.

Model for determination of mid-gap states in amorphous metal oxides from thin film transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubel, S.; Chabinyc, M. L.

2013-06-01

The electronic density of states in metal oxide semiconductors like amorphous zinc oxide (a-ZnO) and its ternary and quaternary oxide alloys with indium, gallium, tin, or aluminum are different from amorphous silicon, or disordered materials such as pentacene, or P3HT. Many ZnO based semiconductors exhibit a steep decaying density of acceptor tail states (trap DOS) and a Fermi level (EF) close to the conduction band energy (EC). Considering thin film transistor (TFT) operation in accumulation mode, the quasi Fermi level for electrons (Eq) moves even closer to EC. Classic analytic TFT simulations use the simplification EC-EF> `several'kT and cannot reproduce exponential tail states with a characteristic energy smaller than 1/2 kT. We demonstrate an analytic model for tail and deep acceptor states, valid for all amorphous metal oxides and include the effect of trap assisted hopping instead of simpler percolation or mobility edge models, to account for the observed field dependent mobility.

78 FR 70303 - Announcement of Requirements and Registration for the Predict the Influenza Season Challenge

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-25

... public. Mathematical and statistical models can be useful in predicting the timing and impact of the... applying any mathematical, statistical, or other approach to predictive modeling. This challenge will... Services (HHS) region level(s) in the United States by developing mathematical and statistical models that...

Quasi steady-state aerodynamic model development for race vehicle simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohrfeld-Halterman, J. A.; Uddin, M.

2016-01-01

Presented in this paper is a procedure to develop a high fidelity quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for use in race car vehicle dynamic simulations. Developed to fit quasi steady-state wind tunnel data, the aerodynamic model is regressed against three independent variables: front ground clearance, rear ride height, and yaw angle. An initial dual range model is presented and then further refined to reduce the model complexity while maintaining a high level of predictive accuracy. The model complexity reduction decreases the required amount of wind tunnel data thereby reducing wind tunnel testing time and cost. The quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for the pitch moment degree of freedom is systematically developed in this paper. This same procedure can be extended to the other five aerodynamic degrees of freedom to develop a complete six degree of freedom quasi steady-state aerodynamic model for any vehicle.

Stability and bistability in a one-dimensional model of coastal foredune height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Evan B.; Moore, Laura J.

2016-05-01

On sandy coastlines, foredunes provide protection from coastal storms, potentially sheltering low areas—including human habitat—from elevated water level and wave erosion. In this contribution we develop and explore a one-dimensional model for coastal dune height based on an impulsive differential equation. In the model, coastal foredunes continuously grow in a logistic manner as the result of a biophysical feedback and they are destroyed by recurrent storm events that are discrete in time. Modeled dunes can be in one of two states: a high "resistant-dune" state or a low "overwash-flat" state. The number of stable states (equilibrium dune heights) depends on the value of two parameters, the nondimensional storm frequency (the ratio of storm frequency to the intrinsic growth rate of dunes) and nondimensional storm magnitude (the ratio of total water level during storms to the maximum theoretical dune height). Three regions of phase space exist (1) when nondimensional storm frequency is small, a single high resistant-dune attracting state exists; (2) when both the nondimensional storm frequency and magnitude are large, there is a single overwash-flat attracting state; (3) within a defined region of phase space model dunes exhibit bistable behavior—both the resistant-dune and the low overwash-flat states are stable. Comparisons to observational studies suggest that there is evidence for each state to exist independently, the coexistence of both states (i.e., segments of barrier islands consisting of overwash-flats and segments of islands having large dunes that resist erosion by storms), as well as transitions between states.

Geography of underweight and overweight among women in India: A multilevel analysis of 3204 neighborhoods in 26 states

PubMed Central

Ackerson, Leland K.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Barbeau, Elizabeth M.; Subramanian, S.V.

2009-01-01

We investigated the geographic distribution and the relationship with neighborhood wealth of underweight and overweight in India. Using multilevel modeling techniques, we calculated state-specific smoothed shrunken state residuals of overweight and underweight, neighborhood and state variation of nutritional status, and the relationships between neighborhood wealth and nutritional status of 76,681 women living in 3204 neighborhoods in 26 Indian states. We found a substantial variation in overweight and underweight at the neighborhood and state levels, net of what could be attributed to individual-level factors. Neighborhood wealth was associated with increased levels of overweight and decreased levels of underweight, and was found to modify the relationship between personal living standard and nutritional status. These findings suggest that interventions to address the double burden of undernutrition and overnutrition in India must take into account state and neighborhood characteristics in order to be successful. PMID:18602351

Political factors affecting the enactment of state-level clean indoor air laws.

PubMed

Tung, Gregory Jackson; Vernick, Jon S; Stuart, Elizabeth A; Webster, Daniel W

2014-06-01

We examined the effects of key political institutional factors on the advancement of state-level clean indoor air laws. We performed an observational study of state-level clean indoor air law enactment among all 50 US states from 1993 to 2010 by using extended Cox hazard models to assess risk of enacting a relevant law. During the 18-year period from 1993 to 2010, 28 states passed a law covering workplaces, 33 states passed a law covering restaurants, 29 states passed a law covering bars, and 16 states passed a law covering gaming facilities. States with term limits had a 2.15 times greater hazard (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27, 3.65; P = .005) of enacting clean indoor air laws. The presence of state-level preemption of local clean indoor air laws was associated with a 3.26 times greater hazard (95% CI = 1.11, 9.53; P = .031) of state-level policy enactment. In the presence of preemption, increased legislative professionalism was strongly associated (hazard ratio = 3.28; 95% CI = 1.10, 9.75; P = .033) with clean indoor air law enactment. Political institutional factors do influence state-level clean indoor air law enactment and may be relevant to other public health policy areas.

Shell-Dependent Photoluminescence Studies Provide Mechanistic Insights into the Off-Grey-On Transitions of Blinking Quantum Dots.

PubMed

Gao, Feng; Bajwa, Pooja; Nguyen, Anh; Heyes, Colin D

2017-03-28

The majority of quantum dot (QD) blinking studies have used a model of switching between two distinct fluorescence intensity levels, "on" and "off". However, a distinct intermediate intensity level has been identified in some recent reports, a so-called "grey" or "dim" state, which has brought this binary model into question. While this grey state has been proposed to result from the formation of a trion, it is still unclear under which conditions it is present in a QD. By performing shell-dependent blinking studies on CdSe QDs, we report that the populations of the grey state and the on state are strongly dependent on both the shell material and its thickness. We found that adding a ZnS shell did not result in a significant population of the grey state. Using ZnSe as the shell material resulted in a slightly higher population of the grey state, although it was still poorly resolved. However, adding a CdS shell resulted in the population of a grey state, which depended strongly on its thickness up to 5 ML. Interestingly, while the frequency of transitions to and from the grey state showed a very strong dependence on CdS shell thickness, the brightness of and the dwell time in the grey state did not. Moreover, we found that the grey state acts as an on-pathway intermediate state between on and off states, with the thickness of the shell determining the transition probability between them. We also identified two types of blinking behavior in QDs, one that showed long-lived but lower intensity on states and another that showed short-lived but brighter on states that also depended on the shell thickness. Intensity-resolved single QD fluorescence lifetime analysis was used to identify the relationship between the various exciton decay pathways and the resulting intensity levels. We used this data to propose a model in which multiple on, grey, and off states exist whose equilibrium populations vary with time that give rise to the various intensity levels of single QDs and which depends on shell composition and thickness.

OH{sup +} in astrophysical media: state-to-state formation rates, Einstein coefficients and inelastic collision rates with He

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gómez-Carrasco, Susana; Godard, Benjamin; Lique, François

The rate constants required to model the OH{sup +} observations in different regions of the interstellar medium have been determined using state of the art quantum methods. First, state-to-state rate constants for the H{sub 2}(v = 0, J = 0, 1) + O{sup +}({sup 4} S) → H + OH{sup +}(X {sup 3}Σ{sup –}, v', N) reaction have been obtained using a quantum wave packet method. The calculations have been compared with time-independent results to assess the accuracy of reaction probabilities at collision energies of about 1 meV. The good agreement between the simulations and the existing experimental cross sectionsmore » in the 0.01-1 eV energy range shows the quality of the results. The calculated state-to-state rate constants have been fitted to an analytical form. Second, the Einstein coefficients of OH{sup +} have been obtained for all astronomically significant rovibrational bands involving the X {sup 3}Σ{sup –} and/or A {sup 3}Π electronic states. For this purpose, the potential energy curves and electric dipole transition moments for seven electronic states of OH{sup +} are calculated with ab initio methods at the highest level, including spin-orbit terms, and the rovibrational levels have been calculated including the empirical spin-rotation and spin-spin terms. Third, the state-to-state rate constants for inelastic collisions between He and OH{sup +}(X {sup 3}Σ{sup –}) have been calculated using a time-independent close coupling method on a new potential energy surface. All these rates have been implemented in detailed chemical and radiative transfer models. Applications of these models to various astronomical sources show that inelastic collisions dominate the excitation of the rotational levels of OH{sup +}. In the models considered, the excitation resulting from the chemical formation of OH{sup +} increases the line fluxes by about 10% or less depending on the density of the gas.« less

State resolved vibrational relaxation modeling for strongly nonequilibrium flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyd, Iain D.; Josyula, Eswar

2011-05-01

Vibrational relaxation is an important physical process in hypersonic flows. Activation of the vibrational mode affects the fundamental thermodynamic properties and finite rate relaxation can reduce the degree of dissociation of a gas. Low fidelity models of vibrational activation employ a relaxation time to capture the process at a macroscopic level. High fidelity, state-resolved models have been developed for use in continuum gas dynamics simulations based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD). By comparison, such models are not as common for use with the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. In this study, a high fidelity, state-resolved vibrational relaxation model is developed for the DSMC technique. The model is based on the forced harmonic oscillator approach in which multi-quantum transitions may become dominant at high temperature. Results obtained for integrated rate coefficients from the DSMC model are consistent with the corresponding CFD model. Comparison of relaxation results obtained with the high-fidelity DSMC model shows significantly less excitation of upper vibrational levels in comparison to the standard, lower fidelity DSMC vibrational relaxation model. Application of the new DSMC model to a Mach 7 normal shock wave in carbon monoxide provides better agreement with experimental measurements than the standard DSMC relaxation model.

Model Information Exchange System (MIXS).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Many travel demand forecast models operate at state, regional, and local levels. While they share the same physical network in overlapping geographic areas, they use different and uncoordinated modeling networks. This creates difficulties for models ...

Evaluation de l'impact du vent et des manoeuvres hydrauliques sur le calcul des apports naturels par bilan hydrique pour un reservoir hydroelectrique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, Mathieu

Natural inflow is an important data for a water resource manager. In fact, Hydro-Quebec uses historical natural inflow data to perform a daily prediction of the amount of water that will be received in each of its hydroelectric reservoirs. This prediction allows the establishment of reservoir operating rules in order to optimize hydropower without compromising the safety of hydraulic structures. To obtain an accurate prediction, it follows that the system's input needs to be very well known. However, it can be very difficult to accurately measure the natural supply of a set of regulated reservoirs. Therefore, Hydro-Quebec uses an indirect method of calculation. This method consists of evaluating the reservoir's inflow using the water balance equation. Yet, this equation is not immune to errors and uncertainties. Water level measurement is an important input in order to compute the water balance equation. However, several sources of uncertainty including the effect of wind and hydraulic maneuvers can affect the readings of limnimetric gages. Fluctuations in water level caused by these effects carry over in the water balance equation. Consequently, natural inflow's signal may become noisy and affected by external errors. The main objective of this report is to evaluate the uncertainty caused by the effects of wind and hydraulic maneuvers on water balance equation. To this end, hydrodynamic models of reservoirs Outardes 4 and Gouin were prepared. According to the literature review, wind effects can be studied either by an unsteady state approach or by assuming steady state approach. Unsteady state simulation of wind effects on reservoir Gouin and Outardes 4 were performed by hydrodynamic modelling. Consideration of an unsteady state implies that the wind conditions vary throughout the simulation. This feature allows taking into account temporal effect of wind duration. In addition, it also allows the consideration of inertial forces such as seiches which are caused by wind conditions that can vary abruptly. Once the models were calibrated, unsteady state simulations were conducted in closed system where unsteady observed winds were the only forces included. From the simulated water levels obtained at each gage, water balance equation was calculated to determine the daily uncertainty of natural inflow in unsteady conditions. At Outardes 4, a maximum uncertainty of 20 m3/s was estimated during the month of October 2010. On the other hand, at the Gouin reservoir, a maximum uncertainty of 340m3/s was estimated during the month of July 2012. Steady state modelling is another approach to evaluate wind effect uncertainty in the water balance equation. This type of approach consists of assuming that the water level is instantly tilted under the influence of wind. Hence, temporal effect of wind duration and seiches cannot be taken into account. However, the advantage of steady state modelling is that it's better suited than unsteady state modelling to evaluate wind uncertainty in real time. Two steady state modelling methods were experimented to estimate water level difference between gages in function of wind characteristics: hydrodynamic modelling and non-parametric regression. It has been found that non-parametric models are more efficient when it comes to estimate water level differences between gages. However, the use of hydrodynamic model demonstrated that to study wind uncertainty in the water balance equation, it is preferable to assess wind responses individually at each gage instead of using water level differences. Finally, a combination method of water level gages observations has been developed. It allows reducing wind/hydraulic maneuvers impacts on the water balance equation. This method, which is applicable in real time, consists of assigning a variable weight at each limnimetric gages. In other words, the weights automatically adjust in order to minimize steady state modeled wind responses. The estimation of hydraulic maneuvers has also been included in the gage weight adjustment. It has been found that this new combination method allows the correction of noisy natural inflow signal under wind and hydraulic maneuvers effects. However, some fluctuations persist which reflects the complexity of correcting these effects on a real time based daily water balance equation. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Preliminary groundwater flow model of the basin-fill aquifers in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys, Mohave County, northwestern Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Garner, Bradley D.; Truini, Margot

2013-01-01

Preliminary numerical models were developed to simulate groundwater flow in the basin-fill alluvium in Detrital, Hualapai, and Sacramento Valleys in northwestern Arizona. The purpose of this exercise was to gather and evaluate available information and data, to test natural‑recharge concepts, and to indicate directions for improving future regional groundwater models of the study area. Both steady-state and transient models were developed with a single layer incorporating vertically averaged hydraulic properties over the model layer. Boundary conditions for the models were constant-head cells along the northern and western edges of the study area, corresponding to the location of the Colorado River, and no-flow boundaries along the bedrock ridges that bound the rest of the study area, except for specified flow where Truxton Wash enters the southern end of Hualapai Valley. Steady-state conditions were simulated for the pre-1935 period, before the construction of Hoover Dam in the northwestern part of the model area. Two recharge scenarios were investigated using the steady-state model—one in which natural aquifer recharge occurs directly in places where water is available from precipitation, and another in which natural aquifer recharge from precipitation occurs in the basin-fill alluvium that drains areas of available water. A transient model with 31 stress periods was constructed to simulate groundwater flow for the period 1935–2010. The transient model incorporates changing Colorado River, Lake Mead, and Lake Mohave water levels and includes time-varying groundwater withdrawals and aquifer recharge. Both the steady-state and transient models were calibrated to available water-level observations in basin-fill alluvium, and simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the study area.

A Mid-Level Dental Provider in Oregon: Dental hygienists' perceptions.

PubMed

Coplen, Amy E; Bell, Kathryn; Aamodt, Gail L; Ironside, Lynn

2017-10-01

Purpose: Many states are exploring alternative provider models and examining the role of the dental hygienist to address access to care challenges as the United States continues to face increasing demands for oral healthcare services. The purpose of this study was to assess dental hygienists' opinions in the state of Oregon regarding the current limitations of dental hygienists' scope of practice, perceived need for a mid-level provider in Oregon, and personal interest in becoming a mid-level provider. Methods: In December 2013 a survey was mailed to a sample of 1,231 dental hygienists registered in Oregon representing 30% of the licentiates. All licentiates holding expanded practice permits (EPP) were included in the sample (n=351). The following categories were included in the 32-question survey: scope of practice, mid-level provider, current practice, and demographics. Results: A total of 440 surveys were returned for a response rate of 36%. Of the EPP holders, 51% responded to the survey. Over half of respondents (59%) believe that a mid-level provider is needed in the state. Respondents holding membership in the American Dental Hygienists' Association, as well as EPP holders, were significantly more likely to respond that a mid-level dental provider was needed in the state (p<0.0001). Ninety-one percent (n=400) of respondents agreed or strongly agreed that if a mid-level provider was introduced in Oregon, the new provider should be a registered dental hygienist model. Forty-three percent (n=186) of respondents were interested in becoming mid-level providers and 47% (n=203) of respondents believed that the minimum education for a mid-level provider should be a bachelor's degree. The majority, 74% (n=137), of those interested in becoming a mid-level provider indicated a preference in completing their education through online teaching combined with a clinical internship. Conclusion: There is strong support from dental hygienists in Oregon that a need exists for a mid-level dental provider and that this provider model should be dental hygiene based. Individuals interested in developing a curriculum for a mid-level provider should consider including online teaching components with a clinical internship component. Copyright © 2017 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

Examination of Self-Efficacy and Burnout Dynamics of Preschool Teachers in Turkey and the United States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Orçan, Maide

2013-01-01

This study aimed to comparatively examine the self-efficacy and burnout levels of preschool teachers in Turkey and the United States. Of the general screening models, the study uses the relational screening model. A total of 90 teachers participated in the study. 32 of the participants were from the United States and 58 were from Turkey. The…

Three Levels of Motivation in Instruction: Building Interpersonal Relations with Learners

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cao, Katy Xinquan

2004-01-01

Based on the emotions and responsibilities, this paper proposes a model that identifies three levels of motivation (3LOM) in instruction. It states that motivation can be addressed at three different levels: inclusion, entertainment and edification. It looks at motivation from the angle of social interaction. The focus of the model is to describe…

Modeling relationships between landscape-level attributes and snorkel counts of chinook salmon and steelhead parr in Idaho

Treesearch

William L. Thompson; Danny C. Lee

2000-01-01

Knowledge of environmental factors impacting anadromous salmonids in their freshwater habitats, particularly at large spatial scales, may be important for restoring them to previously recorded levels in the northwestern United States. Consequently, we used existing data sets and an information-theoretic approach to model landscape-level attributes and snorkel count...

Effect of state workplace safety laws on occupational injury rates.

PubMed

Smitha, M W; Kirk, K A; Oestenstad, K R; Brown, K C; Lee, S D

2001-12-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of four common types of mandatory state-level workplace safety regulations on injury severity rates during the period 1992 to 1997 for the manufacturing sector. The full Poisson regression model showed safety committee regulations to have a highly significant reducing effect on injury rates, chi 2 (1, n = 3286) = 10.1774, P = 0.0014. Safety program regulations were significant at the alpha = 0.10 level, chi 2 (1, n = 3286) = 3.5676, P = 0.0589. The effect of insurance carrier loss control regulations in the full model was nonsignificant. However, insurance carrier loss control regulations were highly significant (alpha = 0.01) in the final reduced model. Targeting initiatives were nonsignificant in both the full and reduced models (alpha = 0.05). The study results are important to state and federal agencies considering adopting workplace safety regulations that are similar to the four types evaluated in this study.

New York State energy-analytic information system: first-stage implementation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allentuck, J.; Carroll, O.; Fiore, L.

1979-09-01

So that energy policy by state government may be formulated within the constraints imposed by policy determined at the national level - yet reflect the diverse interests of its citizens - large quantities of data and sophisticated analytic capabilities are required. This report presents the design of an energy-information/analytic system for New York State, the data for a base year, 1976, and projections of these data. At the county level, 1976 energy-supply demand data and electric generating plant data are provided as well. Data-base management is based on System 2000. Three computerized models provide the system's basic analytic capacity. Themore » Brookhaven Energy System Network Simulator provides an integrating framework while a price-response model and a weather sensitive energy demand model furnished a short-term energy response estimation capability. The operation of these computerized models is described. 62 references, 25 figures, 39 tables.« less

On the efficiency of driver state monitoring systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dementienko, V. V.; Dorokhov, V. B.; Gerus, S. V.; Markov, A. G.; Shakhnarovich, V. M.

2007-06-01

Statistical data on road traffic and the results of laboratory studies are used to construct a mathematical model of a driver-driver state monitor-automobile-traffic system. In terms of the model, the probability of an accident resulting from the drowsy state of the driver is determined both in the absence and presence of a monitor. The model takes into account the efficiency and safety level provided by different monitoring systems, as well as psychological factors associated with the excessive reliance of drivers upon monitoring.

Affective State Level Recognition in Naturalistic Facial and Vocal Expressions.

PubMed

Meng, Hongying; Bianchi-Berthouze, Nadia

2014-03-01

Naturalistic affective expressions change at a rate much slower than the typical rate at which video or audio is recorded. This increases the probability that consecutive recorded instants of expressions represent the same affective content. In this paper, we exploit such a relationship to improve the recognition performance of continuous naturalistic affective expressions. Using datasets of naturalistic affective expressions (AVEC 2011 audio and video dataset, PAINFUL video dataset) continuously labeled over time and over different dimensions, we analyze the transitions between levels of those dimensions (e.g., transitions in pain intensity level). We use an information theory approach to show that the transitions occur very slowly and hence suggest modeling them as first-order Markov models. The dimension levels are considered to be the hidden states in the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework. Their discrete transition and emission matrices are trained by using the labels provided with the training set. The recognition problem is converted into a best path-finding problem to obtain the best hidden states sequence in HMMs. This is a key difference from previous use of HMMs as classifiers. Modeling of the transitions between dimension levels is integrated in a multistage approach, where the first level performs a mapping between the affective expression features and a soft decision value (e.g., an affective dimension level), and further classification stages are modeled as HMMs that refine that mapping by taking into account the temporal relationships between the output decision labels. The experimental results for each of the unimodal datasets show overall performance to be significantly above that of a standard classification system that does not take into account temporal relationships. In particular, the results on the AVEC 2011 audio dataset outperform all other systems presented at the international competition.

Reconsidering the use of rankings in the valuation of health states: a model for estimating cardinal values from ordinal data

PubMed Central

Salomon, Joshua A

2003-01-01

Background In survey studies on health-state valuations, ordinal ranking exercises often are used as precursors to other elicitation methods such as the time trade-off (TTO) or standard gamble, but the ranking data have not been used in deriving cardinal valuations. This study reconsiders the role of ordinal ranks in valuing health and introduces a new approach to estimate interval-scaled valuations based on aggregate ranking data. Methods Analyses were undertaken on data from a previously published general population survey study in the United Kingdom that included rankings and TTO values for hypothetical states described using the EQ-5D classification system. The EQ-5D includes five domains (mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain/discomfort and anxiety/depression) with three possible levels on each. Rank data were analysed using a random utility model, operationalized through conditional logit regression. In the statistical model, probabilities of observed rankings were related to the latent utilities of different health states, modeled as a linear function of EQ-5D domain scores, as in previously reported EQ-5D valuation functions. Predicted valuations based on the conditional logit model were compared to observed TTO values for the 42 states in the study and to predictions based on a model estimated directly from the TTO values. Models were evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between predictions and mean observations, and the root mean squared error of predictions at the individual level. Results Agreement between predicted valuations from the rank model and observed TTO values was very high, with an ICC of 0.97, only marginally lower than for predictions based on the model estimated directly from TTO values (ICC = 0.99). Individual-level errors were also comparable in the two models, with root mean squared errors of 0.503 and 0.496 for the rank-based and TTO-based predictions, respectively. Conclusions Modeling health-state valuations based on ordinal ranks can provide results that are similar to those obtained from more widely analyzed valuation techniques such as the TTO. The information content in aggregate ranking data is not currently exploited to full advantage. The possibility of estimating cardinal valuations from ordinal ranks could also simplify future data collection dramatically and facilitate wider empirical study of health-state valuations in diverse settings and population groups. PMID:14687419

Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

2016-11-14

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERCmore » region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Markov State Models of gene regulatory networks.

PubMed

Chu, Brian K; Tse, Margaret J; Sato, Royce R; Read, Elizabeth L

2017-02-06

Gene regulatory networks with dynamics characterized by multiple stable states underlie cell fate-decisions. Quantitative models that can link molecular-level knowledge of gene regulation to a global understanding of network dynamics have the potential to guide cell-reprogramming strategies. Networks are often modeled by the stochastic Chemical Master Equation, but methods for systematic identification of key properties of the global dynamics are currently lacking. The method identifies the number, phenotypes, and lifetimes of long-lived states for a set of common gene regulatory network models. Application of transition path theory to the constructed Markov State Model decomposes global dynamics into a set of dominant transition paths and associated relative probabilities for stochastic state-switching. In this proof-of-concept study, we found that the Markov State Model provides a general framework for analyzing and visualizing stochastic multistability and state-transitions in gene networks. Our results suggest that this framework-adopted from the field of atomistic Molecular Dynamics-can be a useful tool for quantitative Systems Biology at the network scale.

Analysis of the energy of the first four excited states of the ground-state rotational bands of the even-even nuclei from 6C8 to 56Ba90 with the model of a single cluster of nucleons revolving about a sphere.

PubMed Central

Pauling, L

1991-01-01

The results of the analysis of the first four energy levels of the ground-state rotational bands of even-even nuclei from 6C8 to 56Ba90 on the basis of the revolving-cluster model are reported. Values of the nucleon number of the revolving cluster are assigned on the basis in part of the shell model and in part of the expectation that the corresponding values of the radius of revolution would change only slightly from one energy level to an adjacent level or from one nucleus to an adjacent nucleus. The values of the radius of revolution are found to change gradually from about 5 to 6 fm for the lighter nuclei to 7 to 8 fm for the heavier nuclei in the sequence studied. PMID:11607232

A geospatial model of ambient sound pressure levels in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Mennitt, Daniel; Sherrill, Kirk; Fristrup, Kurt

2014-05-01

This paper presents a model that predicts measured sound pressure levels using geospatial features such as topography, climate, hydrology, and anthropogenic activity. The model utilizes random forest, a tree-based machine learning algorithm, which does not incorporate a priori knowledge of source characteristics or propagation mechanics. The response data encompasses 270 000 h of acoustical measurements from 190 sites located in National Parks across the contiguous United States. The explanatory variables were derived from national geospatial data layers and cross validation procedures were used to evaluate model performance and identify variables with predictive power. Using the model, the effects of individual explanatory variables on sound pressure level were isolated and quantified to reveal systematic trends across environmental gradients. Model performance varies by the acoustical metric of interest; the seasonal L50 can be predicted with a median absolute deviation of approximately 3 dB. The primary application for this model is to generalize point measurements to maps expressing spatial variation in ambient sound levels. An example of this mapping capability is presented for Zion National Park and Cedar Breaks National Monument in southwestern Utah.

Development of landscape-level habitat suitability models for ten wildlife species in the central hardwoods region

Treesearch

Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; William D. Dijak; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

2007-01-01

Reports landscape-level habitat suitability models for 10 species in the Central Hardwoods Region of the Midwestern United States: American woodcock, cerulean warbler, Henslow's sparrow, Indiana bat, northern bobwhite, ruffed grouse, timber rattlesnake, wood thrush, worm-eating warbler, and yellow-breasted chat. All models included spatially explicit variables and...

Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

2013-01-01

Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

Lithium-ion battery cell-level control using constrained model predictive control and equivalent circuit models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xavier, MA; Trimboli, MS

This paper introduces a novel application of model predictive control (MPC) to cell-level charging of a lithium-ion battery utilizing an equivalent circuit model of battery dynamics. The approach employs a modified form of the MPC algorithm that caters for direct feed-though signals in order to model near-instantaneous battery ohmic resistance. The implementation utilizes a 2nd-order equivalent circuit discrete-time state-space model based on actual cell parameters; the control methodology is used to compute a fast charging profile that respects input, output, and state constraints. Results show that MPC is well-suited to the dynamics of the battery control problem and further suggestmore » significant performance improvements might be achieved by extending the result to electrochemical models. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.« less

State-Level Estimates of Cancer-Related Absenteeism Costs

PubMed Central

Tangka, Florence K.; Trogdon, Justin G.; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U.; Guy, Gery P.; Orenstein, Diane

2016-01-01

Background Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. Methods In analyses of data from the 2004–2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. Results We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. Conclusions The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population. PMID:23969498

State-level estimates of cancer-related absenteeism costs.

PubMed

Tangka, Florence K; Trogdon, Justin G; Nwaise, Isaac; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Guy, Gery P; Orenstein, Diane

2013-09-01

Cancer is one of the top five most costly diseases in the United States and leads to substantial work loss. Nevertheless, limited state-level estimates of cancer absenteeism costs have been published. In analyses of data from the 2004-2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the 2004 National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau for 2008, and the 2009 Current Population Survey, we used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level absenteeism costs attributable to cancer from 2004 to 2008. We estimated that the state-level median number of days of absenteeism per year among employed cancer patients was 6.1 days and that annual state-level cancer absenteeism costs ranged from $14.9 million to $915.9 million (median = $115.9 million) across states in 2010 dollars. Absenteeism costs are approximately 6.5% of the costs of premature cancer mortality. The results from this study suggest that lost productivity attributable to cancer is a substantial cost to employees and employers and contributes to estimates of the overall impact of cancer in a state population.

Conceptualizing and Measuring Self-Criticism as Both a Personality Trait and a Personality State.

PubMed

Zuroff, David C; Sadikaj, Gentiana; Kelly, Allison C; Leybman, Michelle J

2016-01-01

Blatt's ( 2004 , 2008 ) conceptualization of self-criticism is consistent with a state-trait model that postulates meaningful variation in self-criticism both between persons (traits) and within person (states). We tested the state-trait model in a 7-day diary study with 99 college student participants. Each evening they completed a 6-item measure of self-criticism, as well as measures of perceived social support, positive and negative affect, compassionate and self-image goals during interactions with others, and interpersonal behavior, including overt self-criticism and given social support. As predicted, self-criticism displayed both trait-like variance between persons and daily fluctuations around individuals' mean scores for the week; slightly more than half of the total variance was between persons (ICC = .56). Numerous associations at both the between-persons and within-person levels were found between self-criticism and the other variables, indicating that individuals' mean levels of self-criticism over the week, and level of self-criticism on a given day relative to their personal mean, were related to their cognitions, affect, interpersonal goals, and behavior. The results supported the construct validity of the daily self-criticism measure. Moreover, the findings were consistent with the state-trait model and with Blatt's theoretical analysis of self-critical personality.

Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Thomas W.

2015-01-01

Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed to be a primer to understanding sea-level rise and a practical synthesis of the current state of knowledge and modeling tools as a resource guide for DOl land management needs and facilitating Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) research and conservation initiatives.

Controller design for a class of nonlinear MIMO coupled system using multiple models and second level adaptation.

PubMed

Pandey, Vinay Kumar; Kar, Indrani; Mahanta, Chitralekha

2017-07-01

In this paper, an adaptive control method using multiple models with second level adaptation is proposed for a class of nonlinear multi-input multi-output (MIMO) coupled systems. Multiple estimation models are used to tune the unknown parameters at the first level. The second level adaptation provides a single parameter vector for the controller. A feedback linearization technique is used to design a state feedback control. The efficacy of the designed controller is validated by conducting real time experiment on a laboratory setup of twin rotor MIMO system (TRMS). The TRMS setup is discussed in detail and the experiments were performed for regulation and tracking problem for pitch and yaw control using different reference signals. An Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) has been used to observe the unavailable states of the TRMS. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Portuguese value set for the SF-6D.

PubMed

Ferreira, Lara N; Ferreira, Pedro L; Pereira, Luis N; Brazier, John; Rowen, Donna

2010-08-01

The SF-6D is a preference-based measure of health derived from the SF-36 that can be used for cost-effectiveness analysis using cost-per-quality adjusted life-year analysis. This study seeks to estimate a system weight for the SF-6D for Portugal and to compare the results with the UK system weights. A sample of 55 health states defined by the SF-6D has been valued by a representative random sample of the Portuguese population, stratified by sex and age (n = 140), using the Standard Gamble (SG). Several models are estimated at both the individual and aggregate levels for predicting health-state valuations. Models with main effects, with interaction effects and with the constant forced to unity are presented. Random effects (RE) models are estimated using generalized least squares (GLS) regressions. Generalized estimation equations (GEE) are used to estimate RE models with the constant forced to unity. Estimations at the individual level were performed using 630 health-state valuations. Alternative functional forms are considered to account for the skewed distribution of health-state valuations. The models are analyzed in terms of their coefficients, overall fit, and the ability for predicting the SG-values. The RE models estimated using GLS and through GEE produce significant coefficients, which are robust across model specification. However, there are concerns regarding some inconsistent estimates, and so parsimonious consistent models were estimated. There is evidence of under prediction in some states assigned to poor health. The results are consistent with the UK results. The models estimated provide preference-based quality of life weights for the Portuguese population when health status data have been collected using the SF-36. Although the sample was randomly drowned findings should be treated with caution, given the small sample size, even knowing that they have been estimated at the individual level.

Evaluating for a geospatial relationship between radon levels and thyroid cancer in Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Goyal, Neerav; Camacho, Fabian; Mangano, Joseph; Goldenberg, David

2015-01-01

To determine whether there is an association between radon levels and the rise in incidence of thyroid cancer in Pennsylvania. Epidemiological study of the state of Pennsylvania. We used information from the Pennsylvania Cancer Registry and the Pennsylvania Department of Energy. From the registry, information regarding thyroid incidence by county and zip code was recorded. Information regarding radon levels per county was recorded from the state. Poisson regression models were fit predicting county-level thyroid incidence and change as a function of radon/lagged radon levels. To account for measurement error in the radon levels, a Bayesian Model extending the Poisson models was fit. Geospatial clustering analysis was also performed. No association was noted between cumulative radon levels and thyroid incidence. In the Poisson modeling, no significant association was noted between county radon level and thyroid cancer incidence (P = .23). Looking for a lag between the radon level and its effect, no significant effect was seen with a lag of 0 to 6 years between exposure and effect (P = .063 to P = .59). The Bayesian models also failed to show a statistically significant association. A cluster of high thyroid cancer incidence was found in western Pennsylvania. Through a variety of models, no association was elicited between annual radon levels recorded in Pennsylvania and the rising incidence of thyroid cancer. However, a cluster of thyroid cancer incidence was found in western Pennsylvania. Further studies may be helpful in looking for other exposures or associations. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Nonlinear deformation of skeletal muscles in a passive state and in isotonic contraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shil'ko, S. V.; Chernous, D. A.; Pleskachevskii, Yu. M.

2012-07-01

A procedure for a two-level modeling of deformation of skeletal muscles is offered. Based on a phenomenological model of an individual muscle fiber, consisting of a viscous, a contractive, and two nonlinearly elastic elements (the first level), various means for describing a skeletal muscle as a whole (the second, macroscopic level) are considered. A method for identification of a muscle model by utilizing experimental elongation diagrams in a passive state and in isotonic contraction is put forward. The results of a biomechanical analysis are compared with known experimental data for the isotonic and isometric activation regimes of tailor's muscle of a frog. It is established that preferable is the description of a muscle that takes into account the different lengths of muscle fibers and their twist.

Self-esteem Is Mostly Stable Across Young Adulthood: Evidence from Latent STARTS Models.

PubMed

Wagner, Jenny; Lüdtke, Oliver; Trautwein, Ulrich

2016-08-01

How stable is self-esteem? This long-standing debate has led to different conclusions across different areas of psychology. Longitudinal data and up-to-date statistical models have recently indicated that self-esteem has stable and autoregressive trait-like components and state-like components. We applied latent STARTS models with the goal of replicating previous findings in a longitudinal sample of young adults (N = 4,532; Mage  = 19.60, SD = 0.85; 55% female). In addition, we applied multigroup models to extend previous findings on different patterns of stability for men versus women and for people with high versus low levels of depressive symptoms. We found evidence for the general pattern of a major proportion of stable and autoregressive trait variance and a smaller yet substantial amount of state variance in self-esteem across 10 years. Furthermore, multigroup models suggested substantial differences in the variance components: Females showed more state variability than males. Individuals with higher levels of depressive symptoms showed more state and less autoregressive trait variance in self-esteem. Results are discussed with respect to the ongoing trait-state debate and possible implications of the group differences that we found in the stability of self-esteem. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Scattering of 42 MeV alpha particles from copper-65

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stewart, W. M.; Seth, K. K.

1973-01-01

Beams of 42-MeV alpha particles were elastically and inelastically scattered from Cu-65 in an attempt to excite states which may be described in terms of an excited core model. Angular distributions were measured for 17 excited states. Seven of the excited states had angular distributions similar to a core quadrupole excitation and eight of the excited states had angular distributions similar to a core octupole excitation. The excited state at 2.858 MeV had an angular distribution which suggests that it may have results from the particle coupling to a two-phonon core state. An extended particle-core coupling calculation was performed and the predicted energy levels and reduced transition probabilities compared to the experimental data. The low lying levels are described quite well and the wavefunctions of these states explain the large spectroscopic factors measured in stripping reactions. For Cu-65 the coupling of the particle to the core is no larger weak as in the simpler model, and configuration mixing results.

Climate variability, rice production and groundwater depletion in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhargava, Alok

2018-03-01

This paper modeled the proximate determinants of rice outputs and groundwater depths in 27 Indian states during 1980-2010. Dynamic random effects models were estimated by maximum likelihood at state and well levels. The main findings from models for rice outputs were that temperatures and rainfall levels were significant predictors, and the relationships were quadratic with respect to rainfall. Moreover, nonlinearities with respect to population changes indicated greater rice production with population increases. Second, groundwater depths were positively associated with temperatures and negatively with rainfall levels and there were nonlinear effects of population changes. Third, dynamic models for in situ groundwater depths in 11 795 wells in mainly unconfined aquifers, accounting for latitudes, longitudes and altitudes, showed steady depletion. Overall, the results indicated that population pressures on food production and environment need to be tackled via long-term healthcare, agricultural, and groundwater recharge policies in India.

Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT): A Linearized State-Space Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, R. David; Calhoun, Philip C.; Whorton, Mark S.

2001-01-01

Vibration acceleration levels on large space platforms exceed the requirements of many space experiments. The Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT) is being built by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to attenuate these disturbances to acceptable levels. G-LIMIT uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to levitate and isolate payloads at the individual experiment/sub-experiment (versus rack) level. Payload acceleration, relative position, and relative orientation measurements are fed to a state-space controller. The controller, in turn, determines the actuator Currents needed for effective experiment isolation. This paper presents the development of an algebraic, state-space model of g-LIMIT, in a form suitable for optimal controller design. The equations are first derived using Newton's Second Law directly, then simplified to a linear form for the purpose of controller design.

Association of cutaneous melanoma incidence with area-based socioeconomic indicators-United States, 2004-2006.

PubMed

Singh, Simple D; Ajani, Umed A; Johnson, Christopher J; Roland, Katherine B; Eide, Melody; Jemal, Ahmedin; Negoita, Serban; Bayakly, Rana A; Ekwueme, Donatus U

2011-11-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) has been associated with melanoma incidence and outcomes. Examination of the relationship between melanoma and SES at the national level in the United States is limited. Expanding knowledge of this association is needed to improve early detection and eliminate disparities. We sought to provide a detailed description of cutaneous melanoma incidence and stage of disease in relationship to area-based socioeconomic measures including poverty level, education, income, and unemployment in the United States. Invasive cutaneous melanoma data reported by 44 population-based central cancer registries for 2004 to 2006 were merged with county-level SES estimates from the US Census Bureau. Age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated by gender, race/ethnicity, poverty, education, income, unemployment, and metro/urban/rural status using software. Poisson multilevel mixed models were fitted, and incidence density ratios were calculated by stage for area-based SES measures, controlling for age, gender, and state random effects. Counties with lower poverty, higher education, higher income, and lower unemployment had higher age-adjusted melanoma incidence rates for both early and late stage. In multivariate models, SES effects persisted for early-stage but not late-stage melanoma incidence. Individual-level measures of SES were unavailable, and estimates were based on county-level SES measures. Our findings show that melanoma incidence in the United States is associated with aggregate county-level measures of high SES. Analyses using finer-level SES measures, such as individual or census tract level, are needed to provide more precise estimates of these associations. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Individual tree diameter increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using a multilevel linear mixed effects model

Treesearch

Fabian C.C. Uzoh; William W. Oliver

2008-01-01

A diameter increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in the United States using a multilevel linear mixed model. Stochastic variability is broken down among period, locale, plot, tree and within-tree components. Covariates acting at tree and stand level, as breast height diameter, density, site index...

Modulation of Soil Initial State on WRF Model Performance Over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Haile; Jin, Qinjian; Yi, Bingqi; Mullendore, Gretchen L.; Zheng, Xiaohui; Jin, Hongchun

2017-11-01

The soil state (e.g., temperature and moisture) in a mesoscale numerical prediction model is typically initialized by reanalysis or analysis data that may be subject to large bias. Such bias may lead to unrealistic land-atmosphere interactions. This study shows that the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dramatically underestimates soil temperature and overestimates soil moisture over most parts of China in the first (0-10 cm) and second (10-25 cm) soil layers compared to in situ observations in July 2013. A correction based on the global optimal dual kriging is employed to correct CFSR bias in soil temperature and moisture using in situ observations. To investigate the impacts of the corrected soil state on model forecasts, two numerical model simulations—a control run with CFSR soil state and a disturbed run with the corrected soil state—were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. All the simulations are initiated 4 times per day and run 48 h. Model results show that the corrected soil state, for example, warmer and drier surface over the most parts of China, can enhance evaporation over wet regions, which changes the overlying atmospheric temperature and moisture. The changes of the lifting condensation level, level of free convection, and water transport due to corrected soil state favor precipitation over wet regions, while prohibiting precipitation over dry regions. Moreover, diagnoses indicate that the remote moisture flux convergence plays a dominant role in the precipitation changes over the wet regions.

A toy model to investigate the existence of excitons in the ground state of strongly-correlated semiconductor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karima, H. R.; Majidi, M. A.

2018-04-01

Excitons, quasiparticles associated with bound states between an electron and a hole and are typically created when photons with a suitable energy are absorbed in a solid-state material. We propose to study a possible emergence of excitons, created not by photon absorption but the effect of strong electronic correlations. This study is motivated by a recent experimental study of a substrate material SrTiO3 (STO) that reveals strong exitonic signals in its optical conductivity. Here we conjecture that some excitons may already exist in the ground state as a result of the electronic correlations before the additional excitons being created later by photon absorption. To investigate the existence of excitons in the ground state, we propose to study a simple 4-energy-level model that mimics a situation in strongly-correlated semiconductors. The four levels are divided into two groups, lower and upper groups separated by an energy gap, Eg , mimicking the valence and the conduction bands, respectively. Further, we incorporate repulsive Coulomb interactions between the electrons. The model is then solved by exact diagonalization method. Our result shows that the toy model can demonstrate band gap widening or narrowing and the existence of exciton in the ground state depending on interaction parameter values.

Stated choice models for predicting the impact of user fees at public recreation sites

Treesearch

Herbert W. Schroeder; Jordan Louviere

1999-01-01

A crucial question in the implementation of fee programs is how the users of recreation sites will respond to various levels and types of fees. Stated choice models can help managers anticipate the impact of user fees on people's choices among the alternative recreation sites available to them. Models developed for both day and overnight trips to several areas and...

Largest-Crown- Width Prediction Models for 53 Species in the Western United States

Treesearch

William A. Bechtold

2004-01-01

The mean crown diameters of stand-grown trees 5.0-in. dbh and larger were modeled as a function of stem diameter, live-crown ratio, stand-level basal area, latitude, longitude, elevation, and Hopkins bioclimatic index for 53 tree species in the western United States. Stem diameter was statistically significant in all models, and a quadratic term for stem diameter was...

Issues and Challenges in Situation Assessment (Level 2 Fusion)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

2 SAW–Comprehension of the current situa- tion ² Level 3 SAW–Projection of future states Operators of dynamic systems use their SAW in de - termining...1) build a model by either editing an existing template/model or create a new one; (2) activate/ de -activate existing models; or (3) view active models...and any evidence that has been associated with the model over time. Different political, military, economic, social , infrastructure, and informa

Reliable groundwater levels: failures and lessons learned from modeling and monitoring studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Lanen, Henny A. J.

2017-04-01

Adequate management of groundwater resources requires an a priori assessment of impacts of intended groundwater abstractions. Usually, groundwater flow modeling is used to simulate the influence of the planned abstraction on groundwater levels. Model performance is tested by using observed groundwater levels. Where a multi-aquifer system occurs, groundwater levels in the different aquifers have to be monitored through observation wells with filters at different depths, i.e. above the impermeable clay layer (phreatic water level) and beneath (artesian aquifer level). A reliable artesian level can only be measured if the space between the outer wall of the borehole (vertical narrow shaft) and the observation well is refilled with impermeable material at the correct depth (post-drilling phase) to prevent a vertical hydraulic connection between the artesian and phreatic aquifer. We were involved in improper refilling, which led to impossibility to monitor reliable artesian aquifer levels. At the location of the artesian observation well, a freely overflowing spring was seen, which implied water leakage from the artesian aquifer affected the artesian groundwater level. Careful checking of the monitoring sites in a study area is a prerequisite to use observations for model performance assessment. After model testing the groundwater model is forced with proposed groundwater abstractions (sites, extraction rates). The abstracted groundwater volume is compensated by a reduction of groundwater flow to the drainage network and the model simulates associated groundwater tables. The drawdown of groundwater level is calculated by comparing the simulated groundwater level with and without groundwater abstraction. In lowland areas, such as vast areas of the Netherlands, the groundwater model has to consider a variable drainage network, which means that small streams only carry water during the wet winter season, and run dry during the summer. The main streams drain groundwater throughout the whole year. We simulated groundwater levels with a steady-state groundwater flow model with and without groundwater abstraction for the wet and dry season, i.e. considering a high (all streams included) and low drainage density (only major streams), respectively. Groundwater drawdown maps for the wet and dry season were compiled. Stakeholders (farmers, ecologists) were very concerned about the large drawdowns. After a while and discussions with the Water Supply Company and stakeholders, we realised that we had calculated unrealistic large drawdowns of the phreatic groundwater level for the dry season. We learnt that by applying a steady-state model we did not take into account the large volume of groundwater, which is released from the groundwater storage. The transient groundwater model that we developed then, showed that the volume of groundwater released from the storage per unit of time is significant and that the drawdown of the phreatic groundwater level by the end of the dry period is substantially smaller than the one simulated by the steady-state model. The results of the transient groundwater flow model agreed rather well with the pumping test that lasted the whole dry season.

Revisiting Robinson: The perils of individualistic and ecologic fallacy

PubMed Central

Subramanian, S V; Jones, Kelvyn; Kaddour, Afamia; Krieger, Nancy

2009-01-01

Background W S Robinson made a seminal contribution by demonstrating that correlations for the same two variables can be different at the individual and ecologic level. This study reanalyzes and historically situates Robinson's influential study that laid the foundation for the primacy of analyzing data at only the individual level. Methods We applied a binomial multilevel logistic model to analyse variation in illiteracy as enumerated by the 1930 US. Census (the same data as used by Robinson). The outcome was log odds of being illiterate, while predictors were race/nativity (‘native whites’, ‘foreign-born whites’ and ‘negroes’) at the individual-level, and presence of Jim Crow segregation laws for education at the state-level. We conducted historical research to identify the social and scientific context within which Robinson's study was produced and favourably received. Results Empirically, the substantial state variations in illiteracy could not be accounted by the states' race/nativity composition. Different approaches to modelling state-effects yielded considerably attenuated associations at the individual-level between illiteracy and race/nativity. Furthermore, state variation in illiteracy was different across the race/nativity groups, with state variation being largest for whites and least for foreign-born whites. Strong effects of Jim Crow education laws on illiteracy were observed with the effect being strongest for blacks. Historically, Robinson's study was consonant with the post-World War II ascendancy of methodological individualism. Conclusion Applying a historically informed multilevel perspective to Robinson's profoundly influential study, we demonstrate that meaningful analysis of individual-level relationships requires attention to substantial heterogeneity in state characteristics. The implication is that perils are posed by not only ecological fallacy but also individualistic fallacy. Multilevel thinking, grounded in historical and spatiotemporal context, is thus a necessity, not an option. PMID:19179348

Revisiting Robinson: the perils of individualistic and ecologic fallacy.

PubMed

Subramanian, S V; Jones, Kelvyn; Kaddour, Afamia; Krieger, Nancy

2009-04-01

W S Robinson made a seminal contribution by demonstrating that correlations for the same two variables can be different at the individual and ecologic level. This study reanalyzes and historically situates Robinson's influential study that laid the foundation for the primacy of analyzing data at only the individual level. We applied a binomial multilevel logistic model to analyse variation in illiteracy as enumerated by the 1930 US. Census (the same data as used by Robinson). The outcome was log odds of being illiterate, while predictors were race/nativity ('native whites', 'foreign-born whites' and 'negroes') at the individual-level, and presence of Jim Crow segregation laws for education at the state-level. We conducted historical research to identify the social and scientific context within which Robinson's study was produced and favourably received. Empirically, the substantial state variations in illiteracy could not be accounted by the states' race/nativity composition. Different approaches to modelling state-effects yielded considerably attenuated associations at the individual-level between illiteracy and race/nativity. Furthermore, state variation in illiteracy was different across the race/nativity groups, with state variation being largest for whites and least for foreign-born whites. Strong effects of Jim Crow education laws on illiteracy were observed with the effect being strongest for blacks. Historically, Robinson's study was consonant with the post-World War II ascendancy of methodological individualism. Applying a historically informed multilevel perspective to Robinson's profoundly influential study, we demonstrate that meaningful analysis of individual-level relationships requires attention to substantial heterogeneity in state characteristics. The implication is that perils are posed by not only ecological fallacy but also individualistic fallacy. Multilevel thinking, grounded in historical and spatiotemporal context, is thus a necessity, not an option.

Discrete-time moment closure models for epidemic spreading in populations of interacting individuals.

PubMed

Frasca, Mattia; Sharkey, Kieran J

2016-06-21

Understanding the dynamics of spread of infectious diseases between individuals is essential for forecasting the evolution of an epidemic outbreak or for defining intervention policies. The problem is addressed by many approaches including stochastic and deterministic models formulated at diverse scales (individuals, populations) and different levels of detail. Here we consider discrete-time SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) dynamics propagated on contact networks. We derive a novel set of 'discrete-time moment equations' for the probability of the system states at the level of individual nodes and pairs of nodes. These equations form a set which we close by introducing appropriate approximations of the joint probabilities appearing in them. For the example case of SIR processes, we formulate two types of model, one assuming statistical independence at the level of individuals and one at the level of pairs. From the pair-based model we then derive a model at the level of the population which captures the behavior of epidemics on homogeneous random networks. With respect to their continuous-time counterparts, the models include a larger number of possible transitions from one state to another and joint probabilities with a larger number of individuals. The approach is validated through numerical simulation over different network topologies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

Spreadsheet Modeling of Electron Distributions in Solids

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glassy, Wingfield V.

2006-01-01

A series of spreadsheet modeling exercises constructed as part of a new upper-level elective course on solid state materials and surface chemistry is described. The spreadsheet exercises are developed to provide students with the opportunity to interact with the conceptual framework where the role of the density of states and the Fermi-Dirac…

State and national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use: Results from measurements and modeling in India for estimation of the global burden of disease

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Previous global burden of disease (GBD) estimates for household air pollution (HAP) from solid cookfuel use were based on categorical indicators of exposure. Recent progress in GBD methodologies that use integrated–exposure–response (IER) curves for combustion particles required the development of models to quantitatively estimate average HAP levels experienced by large populations. Such models can also serve to inform public health intervention efforts. Thus, we developed a model to estimate national household concentrations of PM2.5 from solid cookfuel use in India, together with estimates for 29 states. Methods We monitored 24-hr household concentrations of PM2.5, in 617 rural households from 4 states in India on a cross-sectional basis between November 2004 and March 2005. We then, developed log-linear regression models that predict household concentrations as a function of multiple, independent household level variables available in national household surveys and generated national / state estimates using The Indian National Family and Health Survey (NFHS 2005). Results The measured mean 24-hr concentration of PM2.5 in solid cookfuel using households ranged from 163 μg/m3 (95% CI: 143,183; median 106; IQR: 191) in the living area to 609 μg/m3 (95% CI: 547,671; median: 472; IQR: 734) in the kitchen area. Fuel type, kitchen type, ventilation, geographical location and cooking duration were found to be significant predictors of PM2.5 concentrations in the household model. k-fold cross validation showed a fair degree of correlation (r = 0.56) between modeled and measured values. Extrapolation of the household results by state to all solid cookfuel-using households in India, covered by NFHS 2005, resulted in a modeled estimate of 450 μg/m3 (95% CI: 318,640) and 113 μg/m3 (95% CI: 102,127) , for national average 24-hr PM2.5 concentrations in the kitchen and living areas respectively. Conclusions The model affords substantial improvement over commonly used exposure indicators such as “percent solid cookfuel use” in HAP disease burden assessments, by providing some of the first estimates of national average HAP levels experienced in India. Model estimates also add considerable strength of evidence for framing and implementation of intervention efforts at the state and national levels. PMID:24020494

Building hierarchical models of avian distributions for the State of Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howell, J.E.; Peterson, J.T.; Conroy, M.J.

2008-01-01

To predict the distributions of breeding birds in the state of Georgia, USA, we built hierarchical models consisting of 4 levels of nested mapping units of decreasing area: 90,000 ha, 3,600 ha, 144 ha, and 5.76 ha. We used the Partners in Flight database of point counts to generate presence and absence data at locations across the state of Georgia for 9 avian species: Acadian flycatcher (Empidonax virescens), brownheaded nuthatch (Sitta pusilla), Carolina wren (Thryothorus ludovicianus), indigo bunting (Passerina cyanea), northern cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis), prairie warbler (Dendroica discolor), yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyxus americanus), white-eyed vireo (Vireo griseus), and wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina). At each location, we estimated hierarchical-level-specific habitat measurements using the Georgia GAP Analysis18 class land cover and other Geographic Information System sources. We created candidate, species-specific occupancy models based on previously reported relationships, and fit these using Markov chain Monte Carlo procedures implemented in OpenBugs. We then created a confidence model set for each species based on Akaike's Information Criterion. We found hierarchical habitat relationships for all species. Three-fold cross-validation estimates of model accuracy indicated an average overall correct classification rate of 60.5%. Comparisons with existing Georgia GAP Analysis models indicated that our models were more accurate overall. Our results provide guidance to wildlife scientists and managers seeking predict avian occurrence as a function of local and landscape-level habitat attributes.

Shape coexistence and the role of axial asymmetry in 72Ge

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ayangeakaa, A. D.; Janssens, R. F.; Wu, C. Y.

2016-01-22

The quadrupole collectivity of low-lying states and the anomalous behavior of the0 + 2 and 2 + 3 levels in 72Ge are investigated via projectile multi-step Coulomb excitation with GRETINA and CHICO-2. A total of forty six E2 and M1 matrix elements connecting fourteen low-lying levels were determined using the least-squares search code, GOSIA. Evidence for triaxiality and shape coexistence, based on the model-independent shape invariants deduced from the Kumar–Cline sum rule, is presented. Moreover, these are interpreted using a simple two-state mixing model as well as multi-state mixing calculations carried out within the framework of the triaxial rotor model.more » Our results represent a significant milestone towards the understanding of the unusual structure of this nucleus.« less

Estimating the Prevalence of Childhood Obesity in Alaska Using Partial, Nonrandom Measurement Data

PubMed Central

Boles, Myde; Fink, Karol; Topol, Rebecca; Fenaughty, Andrea

2016-01-01

Although monitoring childhood obesity prevalence is critical for state public health programs to assess trends and the effectiveness of interventions, few states have comprehensive body mass index measurement systems in place. In some states, however, assorted school districts collect measurements on student height and weight as part of annual health screenings. To estimate childhood obesity prevalence in Alaska, we created a logistic regression model using such annual measurements along with public data on demographics and socioeconomic status. Our mixed-effects model-generated prevalence estimates validated well against weighted estimates, with 95% confidence intervals overlapping between methodologies among 7 of 8 participating school districts. Our methodology accounts for variation in school-level and student-level demographic factors across the state, and the approach we describe can be applied by other states that have existing nonrandom student measurement data to estimate childhood obesity prevalence. PMID:27010843

Activation of Carbon-Hydrogen and Hydrogen-Hydrogen Bonds by Copper-Nitrenes: A Comparison of Density Functional Theory with Single- and Multireference Correlation Consistent Composite Approaches.

PubMed

Tekarli, Sammer M; Williams, T Gavin; Cundari, Thomas R

2009-11-10

The kinetics and thermodynamics of copper-mediated nitrene insertion into C-H and H-H bonds (the former of methane) have been studied using several levels of theory: B3LYP/6-311++G(d,p), B97-1/cc-pVTZ, PBE1KCIS/cc-pVTZ, and ccCA (correlation consistent Composite Approach). The results show no significant difference among the DFT methods. All three DFT methods predict the ground state of the copper-nitrene model complex, L'Cu(NH), to be a triplet, while single reference ccCA predicts the singlet to be the ground state. The contributions to the total ccCA energy indicate that the singlet state is favored at the MP2/CBS level of theory, while electron correlation beyond this level (CCSD(T)) favors a triplet state, resulting in a close energetic balance between the two states. A multireference ccCA method is applied to the nitrene active species and supports the assignment of a singlet ground state. In general, the largest difference in the model reaction cycles between DFT and ccCA methods is for processes involving radicals and bond dissociation.

A Monte-Carlo Analysis of Organic Volatility with Aerosol Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chloe; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Bauer, Susanne E.

2017-04-01

A newly developed box model, MATRIX-VBS, includes the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework in an aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves aerosol mass and number concentrations and aerosol mixing state. The new scheme advanced the representation of organic aerosols in models by improving the traditional and simplistic treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile and with a fixed size distribution. Further development includes adding the condensation of organics on coarse mode aerosols - dust and sea salt, thus making all organics in the system semi-volatile. To test and simplify the model, a Monte-Carlo analysis is performed to pin point which processes affect organics the most under varied chemical and meteorological conditions. Since the model's parameterizations have the ability to capture a very wide range of conditions, all possible scenarios on Earth across the whole parameter space, including temperature, humidity, location, emissions and oxidant levels, are examined. The Monte-Carlo simulations provide quantitative information on the sensitivity of the newly developed model and help us understand how organics are affecting the size distribution, mixing state and volatility distribution at varying levels of meteorological conditions and pollution levels. In addition, these simulations give information on which parameters play a critical role in the aerosol distribution and evolution in the atmosphere and which do not, that will facilitate the simplification of the box model, an important step in its implementation in the global model GISS ModelE as a module.

INTERANNUAL VARIATION IN METEOROLOGICALLY ADJUSTED OZONE LEVELS IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES: A COMPARISON OF TWO APPROACHED

EPA Science Inventory

Assessing the influence of abatement efforts and other human activities on ozone levels is complicated by the atmosphere's changeable nature. Two statistical methods, the dynamic linear model(DLM) and the generalized additive model (GAM), are used to estimate ozone trends in the...

Distributed state-space generation of discrete-state stochastic models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ciardo, Gianfranco; Gluckman, Joshua; Nicol, David

1995-01-01

High-level formalisms such as stochastic Petri nets can be used to model complex systems. Analysis of logical and numerical properties of these models of ten requires the generation and storage of the entire underlying state space. This imposes practical limitations on the types of systems which can be modeled. Because of the vast amount of memory consumed, we investigate distributed algorithms for the generation of state space graphs. The distributed construction allows us to take advantage of the combined memory readily available on a network of workstations. The key technical problem is to find effective methods for on-the-fly partitioning, so that the state space is evenly distributed among processors. In this paper we report on the implementation of a distributed state-space generator that may be linked to a number of existing system modeling tools. We discuss partitioning strategies in the context of Petri net models, and report on performance observed on a network of workstations, as well as on a distributed memory multi-computer.

A multi-level simulation platform of natural gas internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine hybrid generation system - Part II. Balancing units model library and system simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Cheng; Cai, Ningsheng; Croiset, Eric

2011-10-01

Following our integrated hierarchical modeling framework of natural gas internal reforming solid oxide fuel cell (IRSOFC), this paper firstly introduces the model libraries of main balancing units, including some state-of-the-art achievements and our specific work. Based on gPROMS programming code, flexible configuration and modular design are fully realized by specifying graphically all unit models in each level. Via comparison with the steady-state experimental data of Siemens-Westinghouse demonstration system, the in-house multi-level SOFC-gas turbine (GT) simulation platform is validated to be more accurate than the advanced power system analysis tool (APSAT). Moreover, some units of the demonstration system are designed reversely for analysis of a typically part-load transient process. The framework of distributed and dynamic modeling in most of units is significant for the development of control strategies in the future.

Decentralized control of large flexible structures by joint decoupling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Su, Tzu-Jeng; Juang, Jer-Nan

1992-01-01

A decentralized control design method is presented for large complex flexible structures by using the idea of joint decoupling. The derivation is based on a coupled substructure state-space model, which is obtained from enforcing conditions of interface compatibility and equilibrium to the substructure state-space models. It is shown that by restricting the control law to be localized state feedback and by setting the joint actuator input commands to decouple joint 'degrees of freedom' (dof) from interior dof, the global structure control design problem can be decomposed into several substructure control design problems. The substructure control gains and substructure observers are designed based on modified substructure state-space models. The controllers produced by the proposed method can operate successfully at the individual substructure level as well as at the global structure level. Therefore, not only control design but also control implementation is decentralized. Stability and performance requirement of the closed-loop system can be achieved by using any existing state feedback control design method. A two-component mass-spring damper system and a three-truss structure are used as examples to demonstrate the proposed method.

Associations between state minimum wage policy and health care access: a multi-level analysis of the 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor survey.

PubMed

McCarrier, Kelly P; Martin, Diane P; Ralston, James D; Zimmerman, Frederick J

2010-05-01

Minimum wage policies have been advanced as mechanisms to improve the economic conditions of the working poor. Both positive and negative effects of such policies on health care access have been hypothesized, but associations have yet to be thoroughly tested. To examine whether the presence of minimum wage policies in excess of the federal standard of $5.15 per hour was associated with health care access indicators among low-skilled adults of working age, a cross-sectional analysis of 2004 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data was conducted. Self-reported health insurance status and experience with cost-related barriers to needed medical care were adjusted in multi-level logistic regression models to control for potential confounding at the state, county, and individual levels. State-level wage policy was not found to be associated with insurance status or unmet medical need in the models, providing early evidence that increased minimum wage rates may neither strengthen nor weaken access to care as previously predicted.

Aeon: Synthesizing Scheduling Algorithms from High-Level Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monette, Jean-Noël; Deville, Yves; van Hentenryck, Pascal

This paper describes the aeon system whose aim is to synthesize scheduling algorithms from high-level models. A eon, which is entirely written in comet, receives as input a high-level model for a scheduling application which is then analyzed to generate a dedicated scheduling algorithm exploiting the structure of the model. A eon provides a variety of synthesizers for generating complete or heuristic algorithms. Moreover, synthesizers are compositional, making it possible to generate complex hybrid algorithms naturally. Preliminary experimental results indicate that this approach may be competitive with state-of-the-art search algorithms.

Assimilating AmeriFlux Site Data into the Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen Coupling via the Ensemble Kalman Filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pettijohn, J. C.; Law, B. E.; Williams, M. D.; Stoeckli, R.; Thornton, P. E.; Hudiburg, T. M.; Thomas, C. K.; Martin, J.; Hill, T. C.

2009-12-01

The assimilation of terrestrial carbon, water and nutrient cycle measurements into land surface models of these processes is fundamental to improving our ability to predict how these ecosystems may respond to climate change. A combination of measurements and models, each with their own systematic biases, must be considered when constraining the nonlinear behavior of these coupled dynamics. As such, we use the sequential Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to assimilate eddy covariance (EC) and other site-level AmeriFlux measurements into the NCAR Community Land Model with Carbon-Nitrogen coupling (CLM-CN v3.5), run in single-column mode at a 30-minute time step, to improve estimates of relatively unconstrained model state variables and parameters. Specifically, we focus on a semi-arid ponderosa pine site (US-ME2) in the Pacific Northwest to identify the mechanisms by which this ecosystem responds to severe late summer drought. Our EnKF analysis includes water, carbon, energy and nitrogen state variables (e.g., 10 volumetric soil moisture levels (0-3.43 m), ponderosa pine and shrub evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide stocks and flux components, snow depth, etc.) and associated parameters (e.g., PFT-level rooting distribution parameters, maximum subsurface runoff coefficient, soil hydraulic conductivity decay factor, snow aging parameters, maximum canopy conductance, C:N ratios, etc.). The effectiveness of the EnKF in constraining state variables and associated parameters is sensitive to their relative frequencies, in that C-N state variables and parameters with long time constants require similarly long time series in the analysis. We apply the EnKF kernel perturbation routine to disrupt preliminary convergence of covariances, which has been found in recent studies to be a problem more characteristic of low frequency vegetation state variables and parameters than high frequency ones more heavily coupled with highly varying climate (e.g., shallow soil moisture, snow depth). Preliminary results demonstrate that the assimilation of EC and other available AmeriFlux site physical, chemical and biological data significantly helps quantify and reduce CLM-CN model uncertainties and helps to constrain ‘hidden’ states and parameters that are essential in the coupled water, carbon, energy and nutrient dynamics of these sites. Such site-level calibration of CLM-CN is an initial step in identifying model deficiencies and in forecasts of future ecosystem responses to climate change.

A physical data model for fields and agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Jong, Kor; de Bakker, Merijn; Karssenberg, Derek

2016-04-01

Two approaches exist in simulation modeling: agent-based and field-based modeling. In agent-based (or individual-based) simulation modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by objects, which are bounded in space and time. Individual objects, like an animal, a house, or a more abstract entity like a country's economy, have properties representing their state. In an agent-based model this state is manipulated. In field-based modeling, the entities representing the system's state are represented by fields. Fields capture the state of a continuous property within a spatial extent, examples of which are elevation, atmospheric pressure, and water flow velocity. With respect to the technology used to create these models, the domains of agent-based and field-based modeling have often been separate worlds. In environmental modeling, widely used logical data models include feature data models for point, line and polygon objects, and the raster data model for fields. Simulation models are often either agent-based or field-based, even though the modeled system might contain both entities that are better represented by individuals and entities that are better represented by fields. We think that the reason for this dichotomy in kinds of models might be that the traditional object and field data models underlying those models are relatively low level. We have developed a higher level conceptual data model for representing both non-spatial and spatial objects, and spatial fields (De Bakker et al. 2016). Based on this conceptual data model we designed a logical and physical data model for representing many kinds of data, including the kinds used in earth system modeling (e.g. hydrological and ecological models). The goal of this work is to be able to create high level code and tools for the creation of models in which entities are representable by both objects and fields. Our conceptual data model is capable of representing the traditional feature data models and the raster data model, among many other data models. Our physical data model is capable of storing a first set of kinds of data, like omnipresent scalars, mobile spatio-temporal points and property values, and spatio-temporal rasters. With our poster we will provide an overview of the physical data model expressed in HDF5 and show examples of how it can be used to capture both object- and field-based information. References De Bakker, M, K. de Jong, D. Karssenberg. 2016. A conceptual data model and language for fields and agents. European Geosciences Union, EGU General Assembly, 2016, Vienna.

Do state characteristics matter? State level factors related to tobacco cessation quitlines

PubMed Central

Keller, Paula A; Koss, Kalsea J; Baker, Timothy B; Bailey, Linda A; Fiore, Michael C

2007-01-01

Background Quitline services are an effective population‐wide tobacco cessation strategy adopted widely in the United States as part of state comprehensive tobacco control efforts. Despite widespread evidence supporting quitlines' effectiveness, many states lack sufficient financial resources to adequately fund and promote this service. Efforts to augment state tobacco control efforts might be fostered by greater knowledge of state level factors associated with the funding and implementation of those efforts. Methods We analysed data from the 2004 North American Quitline Consortium survey and from publicly available sources to identify state level factors related to quitline implementation and funding. Factors included in the analyses were state demographic characteristics, tobacco use variables, state tobacco control spending, and economic and political climate variables. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were conducted. Results The best fitting multivariate model that significantly predicted the presence or absence of a state quitline included only cigarette excise tax rate (p = 0.020). In terms of funding levels, states with high rates of cigarette consumption (p = 0.047) and with higher per capita expenditures for tobacco control programmes (p = 0 .0.004) were most likely to spend more on per capita operations budget for quitlines. Conclusion State level factors appear to play a part in whether states had established quitlines by mid‐2004 and the amount of per capita quitline funding. PMID:18048637

A Hybrid Model for Spatially and Temporally Resolved Ozone Exposures in the Continental United States

PubMed Central

Di, Qian; Rowland, Sebastian; Koutrakis, Petros; Schwartz, Joel

2017-01-01

Ground-level ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, which exhibits considerable spatial and temporal variability in its concentration level. Existing modeling approaches for ground-level ozone include chemical transport models, land-use regression, Kriging, and data fusion of chemical transport models with monitoring data. Each of these methods has both strengths and weaknesses. Combining those complementary approaches could improve model performance. Meanwhile, satellite-based total column ozone, combined with ozone vertical profile, is another potential input. We propose a hybrid model that integrates the above variables to achieve spatially and temporally resolved exposure assessments for ground-level ozone. We used a neural network for its capacity to model interactions and nonlinearity. Convolutional layers, which use convolution kernels to aggregate nearby information, were added to the neural network to account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. We trained the model with AQS 8-hour daily maximum ozone in the continental United States from 2000 to 2012 and tested it with left out monitoring sites. Cross-validated R2 on the left out monitoring sites ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 (mean 0.76) for predictions on 1 km×1 km grid cells, which indicates good model performance. Model performance remains good even at low ozone concentrations. The prediction results facilitate epidemiological studies to assess the health effect of ozone in the long term and the short term. PMID:27332675

Cable deformation simulation and a hierarchical framework for Nb3Sn Rutherford cables

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arbelaez, D.; Prestemon, S. O.; Ferracin, P.

2009-09-13

Knowledge of the three-dimensional strain state induced in the superconducting filaments due to loads on Rutherford cables is essential to analyze the performance of Nb{sub 3}Sn magnets. Due to the large range of length scales involved, we develop a hierarchical computational scheme that includes models at both the cable and strand levels. At the Rutherford cable level, where the strands are treated as a homogeneous medium, a three-dimensional computational model is developed to determine the deformed shape of the cable that can subsequently be used to determine the strain state under specified loading conditions, which may be of thermal, magnetic,more » and mechanical origins. The results can then be transferred to the model at the strand/macro-filament level for rod restack process (RRP) strands, where the geometric details of the strand are included. This hierarchical scheme can be used to estimate the three-dimensional strain state in the conductor as well as to determine the effective properties of the strands and cables from the properties of individual components. Examples of the modeling results obtained for the orthotropic mechanical properties of the Rutherford cables are presented.« less

A State Level Investigation of the Associations among Intellectual Capital, Religiosity and Reproductive Health

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reeve, Charlie L.; Basalik, Debra

2011-01-01

The current study examines the degree to which state intellectual capital, state religiosity and reproductive health form a meaningful nexus of ecological relations. Though the specific magnitude of effects vary across outcomes, results from hierarchical regression analyses were consistent with the hypothesized path model indicating that a state's…

State-level cancer treatment costs: how much and who pays?

PubMed

Tangka, Florence K; Trogdon, Justin G; Ekwueme, Donatus U; Guy, Gery P; Nwaise, Isaac; Orenstein, Diane

2013-06-15

Cancer treatment accounts for approximately 5% of national health expenditures. However, no state-level estimates of cancer treatment costs have been published. In analyses of data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, the National Nursing Home Survey, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Current Population Survey, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, this study used regression modeling to estimate annual state-level cancer care costs during 2004 to 2008 for 4 categories of payers: all payers, Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance. State-level cancer care costs ranged from $227 million to $13.6 billion (median = $2.0 billion) in 2010 dollars. Medicare paid between 25.1% and 36.1% of these costs (median = 32.5%); private insurance paid between 36.0% and 49.6% (median = 43.3%); and Medicaid paid between 2.0% and 8.8% (median = 4.8%). Cancer treatment accounted for 3.8% to 8.7% of all state-level medical expenditures (median = 7.0%), 8.5% to 15.0% of state-level Medicare expenditures (median = 10.6%), 1.0% to 4.9% of state-level Medicaid expenditures (median = 2.2%), and 5.5% to 10.9% of state-level private insurance expenditures (median = 8.7%). The costs of cancer treatment were substantial in all states and accounted for a sizable fraction of medical expenditures for all payers. The high cost of cancer treatment underscores the importance of preventing and controlling cancer as one approach to manage state-level medical costs. Copyright © 2013 American Cancer Society.

Geographic Variation in Household and Catastrophic Health Spending in India: Assessing the Relative Importance of Villages, Districts, and States, 2011-2012.

PubMed

Mohanty, Sanjay K; Kim, Rockli; Khan, Pijush Kanti; Subramanian, S V

2018-03-01

Policy Points: Per-capita household health spending was higher in economically developed states and was associated with ability to pay, but catastrophic health spending (CHS) was equally high in both poorer and more developed states in India. Based on multilevel modeling, we found that the largest geographic variation in health spending and CHS was at the state and village levels, reflecting wide inequality in the accessibility to and cost of health care at these levels. Contextual factors at macro and micro political units are important to reduce health spending and CHS in India. In India, health care is a local good, and households are the major source of financing it. Earlier studies have examined diverse determinants of health care spending, but no attempt has been made to understand the geographical variation in household and catastrophic health spending. We used multilevel modeling to assess the relative importance of villages, districts, and states to health spending in India. We used data on the health expenditures of 101,576 households collected in the consumption expenditure schedule (68th round) carried out by the National Sample Survey in 2011-2012. We examined 4 dependent variables: per-capita health spending (PHS), per-capita institutional health spending (PIHS), per-capita noninstitutional health spending (PNHS), and catastrophic health spending (CHS). CHS was defined as household health spending exceeding 40% of its capacity to pay. We used multilevel linear regression and logistic models to decompose the variation in each outcome by state, region, district, village, and household levels. The average PHS was 1,331 Indian rupees (INR), which varied by state-level economic development. About one-fourth of Indian households incurred CHS, which was equally high in both the economically developed and poorer states. After controlling for household level factors, 77.1% of the total variation in PHS was attributable to households, 10.1% to states, 9.5% to villages, 2.6% to districts, and 0.7% to regions. The pattern in variance partitioning was similar for PNHS. The largest interstate variation was found for CHS (15.9%), while the opposite was true for PIHS (3.2%). We observed substantial variations in household health spending at the state and village levels compared with India's districts and regions. The large variation in CHS attributable to states indicates interstate inequality in the accessibility to and cost of health care. Our findings suggest that contextual factors at the macro and micro political units are important to reduce India's household health spending and CHS. © 2018 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Quantum phases of a three-level matter-radiation interaction model using SU(3) coherent states with different cooperation numbers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quezada, L. F.; Nahmad-Achar, E.

2018-06-01

We use coherent states as trial states for a variational approach to study a system of a finite number of three-level atoms interacting in a dipolar approximation with a one-mode electromagnetic field. The atoms are treated as semidistinguishable using different cooperation numbers and representations of SU(3). We focus our analysis on the quantum phases of the system as well as the behavior of the most relevant observables near the phase transitions. The results are computed for all three possible configurations (Ξ , Λ , and V ) of the three-level atoms.

Determination of the optimal level for combining area and yield estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauer, M. E. (Principal Investigator); Hixson, M. M.; Jobusch, C. D.

1981-01-01

Several levels of obtaining both area and yield estimates of corn and soybeans in Iowa were considered: county, refined strata, refined/split strata, crop reporting district, and state. Using the CCEA model form and smoothed weather data, regression coefficients at each level were derived to compute yield and its variance. Variances were also computed with stratum level. The variance of the yield estimates was largest at the state and smallest at the county level for both crops. The refined strata had somewhat larger variances than those associated with the refined/split strata and CRD. For production estimates, the difference in standard deviations among levels was not large for corn, but for soybeans the standard deviation at the state level was more than 50% greater than for the other levels. The refined strata had the smallest standard deviations. The county level was not considered in evaluation of production estimates due to lack of county area variances.

Testing a Theoretical Model of Immigration Transition and Physical Activity.

PubMed

Chang, Sun Ju; Im, Eun-Ok

2015-01-01

The purposes of the study were to develop a theoretical model to explain the relationships between immigration transition and midlife women's physical activity and test the relationships among the major variables of the model. A theoretical model, which was developed based on transitions theory and the midlife women's attitudes toward physical activity theory, consists of 4 major variables, including length of stay in the United States, country of birth, level of acculturation, and midlife women's physical activity. To test the theoretical model, a secondary analysis with data from 127 Hispanic women and 123 non-Hispanic (NH) Asian women in a national Internet study was used. Among the major variables of the model, length of stay in the United States was negatively associated with physical activity in Hispanic women. Level of acculturation in NH Asian women was positively correlated with women's physical activity. Country of birth and level of acculturation were significant factors that influenced physical activity in both Hispanic and NH Asian women. The findings support the theoretical model that was developed to examine relationships between immigration transition and physical activity; it shows that immigration transition can play an essential role in influencing health behaviors of immigrant populations in the United States. The NH theoretical model can be widely used in nursing practice and research that focus on immigrant women and their health behaviors. Health care providers need to consider the influences of immigration transition to promote immigrant women's physical activity.

Effectiveness of state-level vaccination mandates: evidence from the varicella vaccine.

PubMed

Abrevaya, Jason; Mulligan, Karen

2011-09-01

This paper utilizes longitudinal data on varicella (chickenpox) immunizations in order to estimate the causal effects of state-level school-entry and daycare-entry immunization mandates within the United States. We find significant causal effects of mandates upon vaccination rates among preschool children aged 19-35 months; these effects appear in the year of mandate adoption, peak two years after adoption, and show a minimal difference from the aggregate trend about six years after adoption. For a mandate enacted in 2000, the model and estimates imply that roughly 20% of the short-run increase in state-level immunization rates was caused by the mandate introduction. We find no evidence of differential effects for different socioeconomic groups. Combined with previous cost-benefit analyses of the varicella vaccine, the estimates suggest that state-level mandates have been effective from an economic standpoint. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining statewide capacity for school health and mental health promotion: a post hoc application of a district capacity-building framework.

PubMed

Maras, Melissa A; Weston, Karen J; Blacksmith, Jennifer; Brophy, Chelsey

2015-03-01

Schools must possess a variety of capacities to effectively support comprehensive and coordinated school health promotion activities, and researchers have developed a district-level capacity-building framework specific to school health promotion. State-level school health coalitions often support such capacity-building efforts and should embed this work within a data-based, decision-making model. However, there is a lack of guidance for state school health coalitions on how they should collect and use data. This article uses a district-level capacity-building framework to interpret findings from a statewide coordinated school health needs/resource assessment in order to examine statewide capacity for school health promotion. Participants included school personnel (N = 643) from one state. Descriptive statistics were calculated for survey items, with further examination of subgroup differences among school administrators and nurses. Results were then interpreted via a post hoc application of a district-level capacity-building framework. Findings across districts revealed statewide strengths and gaps with regard to leadership and management capacities, internal and external supports, and an indicator of global capacity. Findings support the utility of using a common framework across local and state levels to align efforts and embed capacity-building activities within a data-driven, continuous improvement model. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Predictors of initial levels and trajectories of anxiety in women before and for 6 months after breast cancer surgery.

PubMed

Kyranou, Marianna; Puntillo, Kathleen; Dunn, Laura B; Aouizerat, Bradley E; Paul, Steven M; Cooper, Bruce A; Neuhaus, John; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Miaskowski, Christine

2014-01-01

The diagnosis of breast cancer, in combination with the anticipation of surgery, evokes fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in most women. Study purposes were to examine in patients who underwent breast cancer surgery how ratings of state anxiety changed from the time of the preoperative assessment to 6 months after surgery and to investigate whether specific demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics predicted the preoperative levels of state anxiety and/or characteristics of the trajectories of state anxiety. Patients (n = 396) were enrolled preoperatively and completed the Spielberger State Anxiety inventory monthly for 6 months. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of state anxiety. Patients experienced moderate levels of anxiety before surgery. Higher levels of depressive symptoms and uncertainty about the future, as well as lower levels of life satisfaction, less sense of control, and greater difficulty coping, predicted higher preoperative levels of state anxiety. Higher preoperative state anxiety, poorer physical health, decreased sense of control, and more feelings of isolation predicted higher state anxiety scores over time. Moderate levels of anxiety persist in women for 6 months after breast cancer surgery. Clinicians need to implement systematic assessments of anxiety to identify high-risk women who warrant more targeted interventions. In addition, ongoing follow-up is needed to prevent adverse postoperative outcomes and to support women to return to their preoperative levels of function.

State-based Marketplaces using 'clearinghouse' plan management models are associated with lower premiums.

PubMed

Krinn, Kelly; Karaca-Mandic, Pinar; Blewett, Lynn A

2015-01-01

The state-based and federally facilitated health insurance Marketplaces, or exchanges, enrolled more than eight million people during the first open enrollment period, which ended March 31, 2014. There is significant variation in how states have designed and implemented their Marketplaces. We examined how premiums varied with states' involvement in the Marketplaces through governance, plan management authority, and strategy during the first year that the exchanges have been open. State-based Marketplaces using "clearinghouse" plan management models had significantly lower adjusted average premiums for all plans within each metal level compared to state-based Marketplaces using "active purchaser" models and the federally facilitated and partnership Marketplaces. Clearinghouse management models are those in which all health plans that meet published criteria are accepted. Active purchaser models are those in which states negotiate premiums, provider networks, number of plans, and benefits. Our baseline estimates provide valuable benchmarks for evaluating future performance of states' involvement in governance, plan management, and regulatory authority of the insurance Marketplaces. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Realtime Knowledge Management (RKM): From an International Space Station (ISS) Point of View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, Peter I.; McDermott, William; Alena, Richard L.

2004-01-01

We are developing automated methods to provide realtime access to spacecraft domain knowledge relevant a spacecraft's current operational state. The method is based upon analyzing state-transition signatures in the telemetry stream. A key insight is that documentation relevant to a specific failure mode or operational state is related to the structure and function of spacecraft systems. This means that diagnostic dependency and state models can provide a roadmap for effective documentation navigation and presentation. Diagnostic models consume the telemetry and derive a high-level state description of the spacecraft. Each potential spacecraft state description is matched against the predictions of models that were developed from information found in the pages and sections in the relevant International Space Station (ISS) documentation and reference materials. By annotating each model fragment with the domain knowledge sources from which it was derived we can develop a system that automatically selects those documents representing the domain knowledge encapsulated by the models that compute the current spacecraft state. In this manner, when the spacecraft state changes, the relevant documentation context and presentation will also change.

Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad; Li, Hongyi; Forman, Barton; Zhang, Xiao

2017-08-01

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2-3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

Analytical approach to the multi-state lasing phenomenon in quantum dot lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korenev, V. V.; Savelyev, A. V.; Zhukov, A. E.; Omelchenko, A. V.; Maximov, M. V.

2013-03-01

We introduce an analytical approach to describe the multi-state lasing phenomenon in quantum dot lasers. We show that the key parameter is the hole-to-electron capture rate ratio. If it is lower than a certain critical value, the complete quenching of ground-state lasing takes place at high injection levels. At higher values of the ratio, the model predicts saturation of the ground-state power. This explains the diversity of experimental results and their contradiction to the conventional rate equation model. Recently found enhancement of ground-state lasing in p-doped samples and temperature dependence of the ground-state power are also discussed.

Nuclear Structure of the Closed Subshell Nucleus 90Zr Studied with the (n,n'(gamma)) Reaction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garrett, P E; Younes, Y; Becker, J A

States in {sup 90}Zr have been observed with the (n,n{prime}{gamma}) reaction using both spallation and monoenergetic accelerator-produced neutrons. A scheme comprised of 81 levels and 157 transitions was constructed concentrating on levels below 5.6 MeV in excitation energy. Spins have been determined by considering data from all experimental studies performed for {sup 90}Zr. Lifetimes have been deduced using the Doppler-shift attenuation method for many of the states and transition rates have been obtained. A spherical shell-model interpretation in terms of particle-hole excitations assuming a {sup 88}Sr closed core is given. In some cases, enhancements in B(M1) and B(E2) values aremore » observed that cannot be explained by assuming simple particle-hole excitations. Shell-model calculations using an extended f pg-shell model space reproduce the spectrum of excited states very well, and the gross features of the B(M1) and B(E2) transition rates. Transition rates for individual levels show discrepancies between calculations and experimental values.« less

Draft Model Curriculum in Nursing Education for Alcohol and Other Drug Abuse.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naegle, Madeline A.; Burns, Elizabeth M.

This document contains three model curricula in nursing education for alcohol and other drug abuse, one graduate and one baccalaureate level from New York University's (NYU) Division of Nursing, and the third combining graduate and undergraduate level curricula for Ohio State University (OSU). The NYU undergraduate curriculum contains a pilot test…

Multilevel functional genomics data integration as a tool for understanding physiology: a network biology perspective.

PubMed

Davidsen, Peter K; Turan, Nil; Egginton, Stuart; Falciani, Francesco

2016-02-01

The overall aim of physiological research is to understand how living systems function in an integrative manner. Consequently, the discipline of physiology has since its infancy attempted to link multiple levels of biological organization. Increasingly this has involved mathematical and computational approaches, typically to model a small number of components spanning several levels of biological organization. With the advent of "omics" technologies, which can characterize the molecular state of a cell or tissue (intended as the level of expression and/or activity of its molecular components), the number of molecular components we can quantify has increased exponentially. Paradoxically, the unprecedented amount of experimental data has made it more difficult to derive conceptual models underlying essential mechanisms regulating mammalian physiology. We present an overview of state-of-the-art methods currently used to identifying biological networks underlying genomewide responses. These are based on a data-driven approach that relies on advanced computational methods designed to "learn" biology from observational data. In this review, we illustrate an application of these computational methodologies using a case study integrating an in vivo model representing the transcriptional state of hypoxic skeletal muscle with a clinical study representing muscle wasting in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. The broader application of these approaches to modeling multiple levels of biological data in the context of modern physiology is discussed. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Understanding the effectiveness of precursor reductions in lowering 8-hr ozone concentrations--Part II. The eastern United States.

PubMed

Reynolds, Steven D; Blanchard, Charles L; Ziman, Stephen D

2004-11-01

Analyses of ozone (O3) measurements in conjunction with photochemical modeling were used to assess the feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr O3 standard in the eastern United States. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr O3 concentrations. VOC emissions reductions alone had only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr O3 concentrations. Anthropogenic NOx emissions reductions of 46-86% of 1996 base case values were needed to reach the level of the 8-hr standard in some areas. As NOx emissions are reduced, O3 production efficiency increases, which accounts for the less than proportional response of calculated 8-hr O3 levels. Such increases in O3 production efficiency also were noted in previous modeling work for central California. O3 production in some urban core areas, such as New York City and Chicago, IL, was found to be VOC-limited. In these areas, moderate NOx emissions reductions may be accompanied by increases in peak 8-hr O3 levels. The findings help to explain differences in historical trends in 1- and 8-hr O3 levels and have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr O3 standard in several areas of the eastern United States.

Adiabatic Quantum Computing via the Rydberg Blockade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keating, Tyler; Goyal, Krittika; Deutsch, Ivan

2012-06-01

We study an architecture for implementing adiabatic quantum computation with trapped neutral atoms. Ground state atoms are dressed by laser fields in a manner conditional on the Rydberg blockade mechanism, thereby providing the requisite entangling interactions. As a benchmark we study the performance of a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem whose solution is found in the ground state spin configuration of an Ising-like model. We model a realistic architecture, including the effects of magnetic level structure, with qubits encoded into the clock states of ^133Cs, effective B-fields implemented through microwaves and light shifts, and atom-atom coupling achieved by excitation to a high-lying Rydberg level. Including the fundamental effects of photon scattering we find a high fidelity for the two-qubit implementation.

Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Boer, Bas; Stocchi, Paolo; Whitehouse, Pippa L.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2017-08-01

The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established field of research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on the precise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the related stability of the grounding line position. Studies using fully coupled ice-sheet - sea-level models have shown that accounting for gravitationally self-consistent sea-level change will act to slow down the retreat and advance of marine ice-sheet grounding lines. Moreover, by simultaneously solving the 'sea-level equation' and modelling ice-sheet flow, coupled models provide a global field of relative sea-level change that is consistent with dynamic changes in ice-sheet extent. In this paper we present an overview of recent advances, possible caveats, methodologies and challenges involved in coupled ice-sheet - sea-level modelling. We conclude by presenting a first-order comparison between a suite of relative sea-level data and output from a coupled ice-sheet - sea-level model.

A pairwise maximum entropy model accurately describes resting-state human brain networks

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Takamitsu; Hirose, Satoshi; Wada, Hiroyuki; Imai, Yoshio; Machida, Toru; Shirouzu, Ichiro; Konishi, Seiki; Miyashita, Yasushi; Masuda, Naoki

2013-01-01

The resting-state human brain networks underlie fundamental cognitive functions and consist of complex interactions among brain regions. However, the level of complexity of the resting-state networks has not been quantified, which has prevented comprehensive descriptions of the brain activity as an integrative system. Here, we address this issue by demonstrating that a pairwise maximum entropy model, which takes into account region-specific activity rates and pairwise interactions, can be robustly and accurately fitted to resting-state human brain activities obtained by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, to validate the approximation of the resting-state networks by the pairwise maximum entropy model, we show that the functional interactions estimated by the pairwise maximum entropy model reflect anatomical connexions more accurately than the conventional functional connectivity method. These findings indicate that a relatively simple statistical model not only captures the structure of the resting-state networks but also provides a possible method to derive physiological information about various large-scale brain networks. PMID:23340410

Unified thalamic model generates multiple distinct oscillations with state-dependent entrainment by stimulation

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The thalamus plays a critical role in the genesis of thalamocortical oscillations, yet the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. To understand whether the isolated thalamus can generate multiple distinct oscillations, we developed a biophysical thalamic model to test the hypothesis that generation of and transition between distinct thalamic oscillations can be explained as a function of neuromodulation by acetylcholine (ACh) and norepinephrine (NE) and afferent synaptic excitation. Indeed, the model exhibited four distinct thalamic rhythms (delta, sleep spindle, alpha and gamma oscillations) that span the physiological states corresponding to different arousal levels from deep sleep to focused attention. Our simulation results indicate that generation of these distinct thalamic oscillations is a result of both intrinsic oscillatory cellular properties and specific network connectivity patterns. We then systematically varied the ACh/NE and input levels to generate a complete map of the different oscillatory states and their transitions. Lastly, we applied periodic stimulation to the thalamic network and found that entrainment of thalamic oscillations is highly state-dependent. Our results support the hypothesis that ACh/NE modulation and afferent excitation define thalamic oscillatory states and their response to brain stimulation. Our model proposes a broader and more central role of the thalamus in the genesis of multiple distinct thalamo-cortical rhythms than previously assumed. PMID:29073146

Predicting the retreat and migration of tidal forests along the northern Gulf of Mexico under sea-level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Krauss, K.W.; Conner, W.H.; From, A.S.

2010-01-01

Tidal freshwater forests in coastal regions of the southeastern United States are undergoing dieback and retreat from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. In many areas, tidal saltwater forests (mangroves) contrastingly are expanding landward in subtropical coastal reaches succeeding freshwater marsh and forest zones. Hydrological characteristics of these low-relief coastal forests in intertidal settings are dictated by the influence of tidal and freshwater forcing. In this paper, we describe the application of the Sea Level Over Proportional Elevation (SLOPE) model to predict coastal forest retreat and migration from projected sea-level rise based on a proxy relationship of saltmarsh/mangrove area and tidal range. The SLOPE model assumes that the sum area of saltmarsh/mangrove habitat along any given coastal reach is determined by the slope of the landform and vertical tide forcing. Model results indicated that saltmarsh and mangrove migration from sea-level rise will vary by county and watershed but greater in western Gulf States than in the eastern Gulf States where millions of hectares of coastal forest will be displaced over the next century with a near meter rise in relative sea level alone. Substantial losses of coastal forests will also occur in the eastern Gulf but mangrove forests in subtropical zones of Florida are expected to replace retreating freshwater forest and affect regional biodiversity. Accelerated global eustacy from climate change will compound the degree of predicted retreat and migration of coastal forests with expected implications for ecosystem management of State and Federal lands in the absence of adaptive coastal management.

MOVES and Related Models

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

MOVES is a state-of-the-science emission modeling system that estimates emissions for mobile sources at the national, county, and project level for criteria air pollutants, greenhouse gases, and air toxics.

Final CSAPR Revisions Rule (77 FR 10324)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA finalizes revisions to the Transport Rule (76 FR 48208). These revisions address discrepancies in unit-specific modeling assumptions that affect the proper calculation of Transport Rule state budgets and assurance levels in several states.

Leading bureaucracies to the tipping point: An alternative model of multiple stable equilibrium levels of corruption

PubMed Central

Caulkins, Jonathan P.; Feichtinger, Gustav; Grass, Dieter; Hartl, Richard F.; Kort, Peter M.; Novak, Andreas J.; Seidl, Andrea

2013-01-01

We present a novel model of corruption dynamics in the form of a nonlinear optimal dynamic control problem. It has a tipping point, but one whose origins and character are distinct from that in the classic Schelling (1978) model. The decision maker choosing a level of corruption is the chief or some other kind of authority figure who presides over a bureaucracy whose state of corruption is influenced by the authority figure’s actions, and whose state in turn influences the pay-off for the authority figure. The policy interpretation is somewhat more optimistic than in other tipping models, and there are some surprising implications, notably that reforming the bureaucracy may be of limited value if the bureaucracy takes its cues from a corrupt leader. PMID:23565027

Leading bureaucracies to the tipping point: An alternative model of multiple stable equilibrium levels of corruption.

PubMed

Caulkins, Jonathan P; Feichtinger, Gustav; Grass, Dieter; Hartl, Richard F; Kort, Peter M; Novak, Andreas J; Seidl, Andrea

2013-03-16

We present a novel model of corruption dynamics in the form of a nonlinear optimal dynamic control problem. It has a tipping point, but one whose origins and character are distinct from that in the classic Schelling (1978) model. The decision maker choosing a level of corruption is the chief or some other kind of authority figure who presides over a bureaucracy whose state of corruption is influenced by the authority figure's actions, and whose state in turn influences the pay-off for the authority figure. The policy interpretation is somewhat more optimistic than in other tipping models, and there are some surprising implications, notably that reforming the bureaucracy may be of limited value if the bureaucracy takes its cues from a corrupt leader.

The unrestricted Hartree-Fock self consistent field calculation for spin density wave state in metallic carbon nanotube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Katsushi

1997-06-01

The possibility of a spin density wave (SDW) state in a metallic carbon nanotube (CN) and its electronic properties are investigated within the Hartree-Fock self consistent field (SCF) energy-band calculation. Two kinds of spatial SDW states are assumed in this study. Each assumed SDW on the wave function is constructed with the degenerate π orbital in the metallic CN system. The results calculated for the one SDW model of CN always have a relative stability (˜ 0.1 eV/cell) in SCF total energy compared with the original model in which no SDW is assumed. All the results calculated for another SDW model are completely equal to the original one. Moreover, in the energy dispersion of the former stable SDW model, the degenerate π level found in the original model disappears and the band gap (3-5 eV) occurs around at the Fermi level. The energetic stability and the band gap are also found in the π-electron band calculation within the Hubbard Hamiltonian.

Examining the target levels of state renewable portfolio standards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helwig, Laurence Douglas

At present 37 U.S. states have passed Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) or have a legislative driven goal that supports investment in renewable energy (RE) technologies. Previous research has identified economic, governmental, ideological and infrastructural characteristics as key predictors of policy adoption and renewable energy deployment efforts (Carley, 2009; Davis & Davis, 2009; Bohn & Lant, 2009; Lyon & Yin, 2010). To date, only a few studies have investigated the target levels of renewable portfolio standards. Carley & Miller (2012) found that policies of differing stringencies were motivated by systematically different factors that included governmental ideology. The purpose of this dissertation is to replicate and expand upon earlier models that predicted RPS adoption and RE deployment efforts by adding regulatory, infrastructural and spatial characteristics to predict RPS target levels. Hypotheses were tested using three alternative measurements of RPS target level strength to determine to what extent a combination of explanatory variables explain variation in policy target levels. Multivariate linear regression and global spatial autocorrelation results indicated that multiple state internal determinants influenced RPS target level including average electricity price, state government ideology and to a lesser extent actual RE potential capacity. In addition, some diffusion effects were found to exist that indicated that states are setting their RPS target levels lower than their neighboring states and a local geo-spatial clustering effect was observed in the target levels for a grouping of northeastern states.

ASSIST: User's manual

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, S. C.

1986-01-01

Semi-Markov models can be used to compute the reliability of virtually any fault-tolerant system. However, the process of delineating all of the states and transitions in a model of a complex system can be devastingly tedious and error-prone. The ASSIST program allows the user to describe the semi-Markov model in a high-level language. Instead of specifying the individual states of the model, the user specifies the rules governing the behavior of the system and these are used by ASSIST to automatically generate the model. The ASSIST program is described and illustrated by examples.

Impacts of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid Expansion on Women of Reproductive Age: Differences by Parental Status and State Policies.

PubMed

Johnston, Emily M; Strahan, Andrea E; Joski, Peter; Dunlop, Anne L; Adams, E Kathleen

We use data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 2012 to 2015 to estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) Medicaid expansions on insurance coverage and access to care for low-income women of reproductive age (19-44). We use two-way fixed effects difference-in-differences models to estimate the effects of Medicaid expansions on low-income (<100% of the Federal Poverty Level) women of reproductive age. Additional models are stratified to estimate effects based on women's parental status, pre-ACA state Medicaid eligibility levels, and the presence of a state Medicaid family planning waiver. ACA Medicaid expansions decreased uninsurance among low-income women of reproductive age by 13.2 percentage points. This decrease was driven by a decrease of 27.4 percentage points for women without dependent children, who also experienced a decrease in the likelihood of not having a personal doctor (13.3 percentage points). We find a 3.8-percentage point reduction in the likelihood of experiencing a cost barrier to care among all women, but no significant effects for other access measures or subgroups. When stratified by state policies, decreases in uninsurance were greater in states expanding from pre-ACA eligibility levels of less than 50% of Federal Poverty Level (19.4 percentage points) and in states without a Medicaid family planning waiver (17.6 percentage points). The ACA Medicaid expansion increased insurance coverage for low-income women of reproductive age, with the greatest effects for women without dependent children and women residing in states with relatively lower pre-ACA Medicaid eligibility levels or with no family planning waiver before the ACA. Copyright © 2017 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Conceptual framework and trend analysis of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses, Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley groundwater basin, Nevada, 1966-2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jackson, Tracie R.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2018-05-31

This report identifies water-level trends in wells and provides a conceptual framework that explains the hydrologic stresses and factors causing the trends in the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV) groundwater basin, southern Nevada. Water levels in 79 wells were analyzed for trends between 1966 and 2016. The magnitude and duration of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses were analyzed graphically, statistically, and with water-level models.The conceptual framework consists of multiple stress-specific conceptual models to explain water-level responses to the following hydrologic stresses: recharge, evapotranspiration, pumping, nuclear testing, and wellbore equilibration. Dominant hydrologic stresses affecting water-level trends in each well were used to categorize trends as nonstatic, transient, or steady state.The conceptual framework of water-level responses to hydrologic stresses and trend analyses provide a comprehensive understanding of the PMOV basin and vicinity. The trend analysis links water-level fluctuations in wells to hydrologic stresses and potential factors causing the trends. Transient and steady-state trend categorizations can be used to determine the appropriate water-level data for groundwater studies.

Covet Thy Neighbor or "Reverse Policy Diffusion"? State Adoption of Performance Funding 2.0

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Amy Y.

2017-01-01

Performance funding has become an increasingly prevalent state policy to incentivize student retention and degree completion at public colleges. Using a Cox proportional hazards model on state-level data from years 2000 to 2013, this study analyzes the latest wave of policies that embed base appropriations into the state budget to fund student…

A comprehensive pipeline for multi-resolution modeling of the mitral valve: Validation, computational efficiency, and predictive capability.

PubMed

Drach, Andrew; Khalighi, Amir H; Sacks, Michael S

2018-02-01

Multiple studies have demonstrated that the pathological geometries unique to each patient can affect the durability of mitral valve (MV) repairs. While computational modeling of the MV is a promising approach to improve the surgical outcomes, the complex MV geometry precludes use of simplified models. Moreover, the lack of complete in vivo geometric information presents significant challenges in the development of patient-specific computational models. There is thus a need to determine the level of detail necessary for predictive MV models. To address this issue, we have developed a novel pipeline for building attribute-rich computational models of MV with varying fidelity directly from the in vitro imaging data. The approach combines high-resolution geometric information from loaded and unloaded states to achieve a high level of anatomic detail, followed by mapping and parametric embedding of tissue attributes to build a high-resolution, attribute-rich computational models. Subsequent lower resolution models were then developed and evaluated by comparing the displacements and surface strains to those extracted from the imaging data. We then identified the critical levels of fidelity for building predictive MV models in the dilated and repaired states. We demonstrated that a model with a feature size of about 5 mm and mesh size of about 1 mm was sufficient to predict the overall MV shape, stress, and strain distributions with high accuracy. However, we also noted that more detailed models were found to be needed to simulate microstructural events. We conclude that the developed pipeline enables sufficiently complex models for biomechanical simulations of MV in normal, dilated, repaired states. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

County-Level Radon and Incidence of Female Thyroid Cancer in Iowa, New Jersey, and Wisconsin, USA

PubMed Central

Oakland, Caroline

2018-01-01

Background: Few studies have investigated the association between radon and thyroid cancer despite the sensitivity of the thyroid gland to radiation. Our goal is to investigate the association between county-level radon and incidence of female thyroid cancer in the US States of Iowa, New Jersey, and Wisconsin. Methods: Thyroid cancer incidence data were provided by individual state cancer registries and span 1990–2013. Radon data come from a publicly available third-party database, AirChek, accessed in 2017. We tabulated the percent of radon above four picocuries per liter and the female thyroid cancer incidence rate in each county. Quantile maps were constructed, and an ordinary least-squares regression model was run using Geoda 1.10.0.8 (Chicago, IL, USA). Results: No association was observed between county-level radon and incidence of female thyroid cancer in any of the States: New Jersey (β = 0.06, p = 0.23); Iowa (β = −0.07, p = 0.07); or Wisconsin (β = −0.01, p = 0.78). A spatial regression model was considered, but the Moran’s I of the residuals from each of the models was not significant, so no spatial term was required. Discussion: In this county-level ecological study across three different States in the US, we did not find an association between elevated radon and thyroid cancer incidence in women. While this ecologic study reports null findings, due to the ecologic fallacy, individual-level studies of this association may still be warranted. PMID:29547509

Income inequality and child maltreatment in the United States.

PubMed

Eckenrode, John; Smith, Elliott G; McCarthy, Margaret E; Dineen, Michael

2014-03-01

To examine the relation between county-level income inequality and rates of child maltreatment. Data on substantiated reports of child abuse and neglect from 2005 to 2009 were obtained from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System. County-level data on income inequality and children in poverty were obtained from the American Community Survey. Data for additional control variables were obtained from the American Community Survey and the Health Resources and Services Administration Area Resource File. The Gini coefficient was used as the measure of income inequality. Generalized additive models were estimated to explore linear and nonlinear relations among income inequality, poverty, and child maltreatment. In all models, state was included as a fixed effect to control for state-level differences in victim rates. Considerable variation in income inequality and child maltreatment rates was found across the 3142 US counties. Income inequality, as well as child poverty rate, was positively and significantly correlated with child maltreatment rates at the county level. Controlling for child poverty, demographic and economic control variables, and state-level variation in maltreatment rates, there was a significant linear effect of inequality on child maltreatment rates (P < .0001). This effect was stronger for counties with moderate to high levels of child poverty. Higher income inequality across US counties was significantly associated with higher county-level rates of child maltreatment. The findings contribute to the growing literature linking greater income inequality to a range of poor health and well-being outcomes in infants and children.

Ground-Water Flow Model of the Sierra Vista Subwatershed and Sonoran Portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin, Southeastern Arizona, United States, and Northern Sonora, Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pool, D.R.; Dickinson, Jesse

2007-01-01

A numerical ground-water model was developed to simulate seasonal and long-term variations in ground-water flow in the Sierra Vista subwatershed, Arizona, United States, and Sonora, Mexico, portions of the Upper San Pedro Basin. This model includes the simulation of details of the groundwater flow system that were not simulated by previous models, such as ground-water flow in the sedimentary rocks that surround and underlie the alluvial basin deposits, withdrawals for dewatering purposes at the Tombstone mine, discharge to springs in the Huachuca Mountains, thick low-permeability intervals of silt and clay that separate the ground-water flow system into deep-confined and shallow-unconfined systems, ephemeral-channel recharge, and seasonal variations in ground-water discharge by wells and evapotranspiration. Steady-state and transient conditions during 1902-2003 were simulated by using a five-layer numerical ground- water flow model representing multiple hydrogeologic units. Hydraulic properties of model layers, streamflow, and evapotranspiration rates were estimated as part of the calibration process by using observed water levels, vertical hydraulic gradients, streamflow, and estimated evapotranspiration rates as constraints. Simulations approximate observed water-level trends throughout most of the model area and streamflow trends at the Charleston streamflow-gaging station on the San Pedro River. Differences in observed and simulated water levels, streamflow, and evapotranspiration could be reduced through simulation of climate-related variations in recharge rates and recharge from flood-flow infiltration.

State-Level Predictors of Food Insecurity among Households with Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bartfeld, Judi; Dunifon, Rachel

2006-01-01

This article examines interstate variation in household food security. Using hierarchical modeling, we identify several kinds of state characteristics that appear linked to household food security: the availability and accessibility of federal nutrition assistance programs, policies affecting economic wellbeing of low income families, and states'…

Geographic Variations in Cardiovascular Health in the United States: Contributions of State- and Individual-Level Factors

PubMed Central

Gebreab, Samson Y; Davis, Sharon K; Symanzik, Jürgen; Mensah, George A; Gibbons, Gary H; Diez-Roux, Ana V

2015-01-01

Background Improving cardiovascular health (CVH) of all Americans by 2020 is a strategic goal of the American Heart Association. Understanding the sources of variation and identifying contextual factors associated with poor CVH may suggest important avenues for prevention. Methods and Results Cross-sectional data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for the year 2011 were linked to state-level coronary heart disease and stroke mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and to state-level measures of median household income, income inequality, taxes on soda drinks and cigarettes, and food and physical activity environments from various administrative sources. Poor CVH was defined according to the American Heart Association definition using 7 self-reported CVH metrics (current smoking, physical inactivity, obesity, poor diet, hypertension, diabetes, and high cholesterol). Linked micromap plots and multilevel logistic models were used to examine state variation in poor CVH and to investigate the contributions of individual- and state-level factors to this variation. We found significant state-level variation in the prevalence of poor CVH (median odds ratio 1.32, P<0.001). Higher rates of poor CVH and cardiovascular disease mortality were clustered in the southern states. Minority and low socioeconomic groups were strongly associated with poor CVH and explained 51% of the state-level variation in poor CVH; state-level factors explained an additional 28%. State-level median household income (odds ratio 0.89; 95% CI 0.84–0.94), taxes on soda drinks (odds ratio 0.94; 95% CI 0.89–0.99), farmers markets (odds ratio 0.91; 95% CI 0.85–0.98), and convenience stores (odds ratio 1.09; 95% CI 1.01–1.17) were predictive of poor CVH even after accounting for individual-level factors. Conclusions There is significant state-level variation in poor CVH that is partly explained by individual- and state-level factors. Additional longitudinal research is warranted to examine the influence of state-level policies and food and physical activity environments on poor CVH. PMID:26019131

Improving traffic signal management and operations : a basic service model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

This report provides a guide for achieving a basic service model for traffic signal management and : operations. The basic service model is based on simply stated and defensible operational objectives : that consider the staffing level, expertise and...

Bring out your dead!: A study of income inequality and life expectancy in the United States, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Hill, Terrence D; Jorgenson, Andrew

2018-01-01

We test whether income inequality undermines female and male life expectancy in the United States. We employ data for all 50 states and the District of Columbia and two-way fixed effects to model state-level average life expectancy as a function of multiple income inequality measures and time-varying characteristics. We find that state-level income inequality is inversely associated with female and male life expectancy. We observe this general pattern across four measures of income inequality and under the rigorous conditions of state-specific and year-specific fixed effects. If income inequality undermines life expectancy, redistribution policies could actually improve the health of states. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Raetrad model extensions for radon entry into multi-level buildings with basements or crawl spaces.

PubMed

Nielson, K K; Rogers, V C; Rogers, V; Holt, R B

1997-10-01

The RAETRAD model was generalized to characterize radon generation and movement from soils and building materials into multi-level buildings with basements or crawl spaces. With the generalization, the model retains its original simplicity and ease of use. The model calculates radon entry rates that are consistent with measurements published for basement test structures at Colorado State University, confirming approximately equal contributions from diffusion and pressure-driven air flow at indoor-outdoor air pressure differences of deltaP(i-o) = -3.5 Pa. About one-fourth of the diffusive radon entry comes from concrete slabs and three-fourths comes from the surrounding soils. Calculated radon entry rates with and without a barrier over floor-wall shrinkage cracks generally agree with Colorado State University measurements when a sustained pressure of deltaP(i-o) = -2 Pa is used to represent calm wind (<1 m s(-1)) conditions. Calculated radon distributions in a 2-level house also are consistent with published measurements and equations.

Cavity hydration dynamics in cytochrome c oxidase and functional implications

PubMed Central

Son, Chang Yun; Cui, Qiang

2017-01-01

Cytochrome c oxidase (CcO) is a transmembrane protein that uses the free energy of O2 reduction to generate the proton concentration gradient across the membrane. The regulation of competitive proton transfer pathways has been established to be essential to the vectorial transport efficiency of CcO, yet the underlying mechanism at the molecular level remains lacking. Recent studies have highlighted the potential importance of hydration-level change in an internal cavity that connects the proton entrance channel, the site of O2 reduction, and the putative proton exit route. In this work, we use atomistic molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the energetics and timescales associated with the volume fluctuation and hydration-level change in this central cavity. Extensive unrestrained molecular dynamics simulations (accumulatively ∼4 μs) and free energy computations for different chemical states of CcO support a model in which the volume and hydration level of the cavity are regulated by the protonation state of a propionate group of heme a3 and, to a lesser degree, the redox state of heme a and protonation state of Glu286. Markov-state model analysis of ∼2-μs trajectories suggests that hydration-level change occurs on the timescale of 100–200 ns before the proton-loading site is protonated. The computed energetic and kinetic features for the cavity wetting transition suggest that reversible hydration-level change of the cavity can indeed be a key factor that regulates the branching of proton transfer events and therefore contributes to the vectorial efficiency of proton transport. PMID:28973914

A Violation of the Conditional Independence Assumption in the Two-High-Threshold Model of Recognition Memory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Tina; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.

2015-01-01

The 2-high-threshold (2HT) model of recognition memory assumes that test items result in distinct internal states: they are either detected or not, and the probability of responding at a particular confidence level that an item is "old" or "new" depends on the state-response mapping parameters. The mapping parameters are…

Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach.

PubMed

Pham, Trang; Tran, Truyen; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha

2017-05-01

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, stored in electronic medical records are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors and models patient health state trajectories by the memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces methods to handle irregularly timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory. DeepCare also explicitly models medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden - diabetes and mental health - the results show improved prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of deterioration models for concrete bridge decks - phase 2 : mechanics-based degradation models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-06-01

This report summarizes a research project aimed at developing degradation models for bridge decks in the state of Michigan based on durability mechanics. A probabilistic framework to implement local-level mechanistic-based models for predicting the c...

A potato model intercomparison across varying climates and productivity levels

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A potato crop multi-model assessment was conducted to quantify variation among models and evaluate responses to climate change. Nine modeling groups simulated agronomic and climatic responses at low- (Chinoli, Bolivia and Gisozi, Burundi) and high- (Jyndevad, Denmark and Washington, United States) ...

Damage/fault diagnosis in an operating wind turbine under uncertainty via a vibration response Gaussian mixture random coefficient model based framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avendaño-Valencia, Luis David; Fassois, Spilios D.

2017-07-01

The study focuses on vibration response based health monitoring for an operating wind turbine, which features time-dependent dynamics under environmental and operational uncertainty. A Gaussian Mixture Model Random Coefficient (GMM-RC) model based Structural Health Monitoring framework postulated in a companion paper is adopted and assessed. The assessment is based on vibration response signals obtained from a simulated offshore 5 MW wind turbine. The non-stationarity in the vibration signals originates from the continually evolving, due to blade rotation, inertial properties, as well as the wind characteristics, while uncertainty is introduced by random variations of the wind speed within the range of 10-20 m/s. Monte Carlo simulations are performed using six distinct structural states, including the healthy state and five types of damage/fault in the tower, the blades, and the transmission, with each one of them characterized by four distinct levels. Random vibration response modeling and damage diagnosis are illustrated, along with pertinent comparisons with state-of-the-art diagnosis methods. The results demonstrate consistently good performance of the GMM-RC model based framework, offering significant performance improvements over state-of-the-art methods. Most damage types and levels are shown to be properly diagnosed using a single vibration sensor.

Using air quality modeling to study source-receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides emissions and ozone exposures over the United States.

PubMed

Tong, Daniel Q; Muller, Nicholas Z; Kan, Haidong; Mendelsohn, Robert O

2009-11-01

Human exposure to ambient ozone (O(3)) has been linked to a variety of adverse health effects. The ozone level at a location is contributed by local production, regional transport, and background ozone. This study combines detailed emission inventory, air quality modeling, and census data to investigate the source-receptor relationships between nitrogen oxides (NO(x)) emissions and population exposure to ambient O(3) in 48 states over the continental United States. By removing NO(x) emissions from each state one at a time, we calculate the change in O(3) exposures by examining the difference between the base and the sensitivity simulations. Based on the 49 simulations, we construct state-level and census region-level source-receptor matrices describing the relationships among these states/regions. We find that, for 43 receptor states, cumulative NO(x) emissions from upwind states contribute more to O(3) exposures than the state's own emissions. In-state emissions are responsible for less than 15% of O(3) exposures in 90% of U.S. states. A state's NO(x) emissions can influence 2 to 40 downwind states by at least a 0.1 ppbv change in population-averaged O(3) exposure. The results suggest that the U.S. generally needs a regional strategy to effectively reduce O(3) exposures. But the current regional emission control program in the U.S. is a cap-and-trade program that assumes the marginal damage of every ton of NO(x) is equal. In this study, the average O(3) exposures caused by one ton of NO(x) emissions ranges from -2.0 to 2.3 ppm-people-hours depending on the state. The actual damage caused by one ton of NO(x) emissions varies considerably over space.

Developing small-area predictions for smoking and obesity prevalence in the United States for use in Environmental Public Health Tracking.

PubMed

Ortega Hinojosa, Alberto M; Davies, Molly M; Jarjour, Sarah; Burnett, Richard T; Mann, Jennifer K; Hughes, Edward; Balmes, John R; Turner, Michelle C; Jerrett, Michael

2014-10-01

Globally and in the United States, smoking and obesity are leading causes of death and disability. Reliable estimates of prevalence for these risk factors are often missing variables in public health surveillance programs. This may limit the capacity of public health surveillance to target interventions or to assess associations between other environmental risk factors (e.g., air pollution) and health because smoking and obesity are often important confounders. To generate prevalence estimates of smoking and obesity rates over small areas for the United States (i.e., at the ZIP code and census tract levels). We predicted smoking and obesity prevalence using a combined approach first using a lasso-based variable selection procedure followed by a two-level random effects regression with a Poisson link clustered on state and county. We used data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) from 1991 to 2010 to estimate the model. We used 10-fold cross-validated mean squared errors and the variance of the residuals to test our model. To downscale the estimates we combined the prediction equations with 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census data for each of the four five-year time periods in this time range at the ZIP code and census tract levels. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted using models that included only basic terms, that accounted for spatial autocorrelation, and used Generalized Linear Models that did not include random effects. The two-level random effects model produced improved estimates compared to the fixed effects-only models. Estimates were particularly improved for the two-thirds of the conterminous U.S. where BRFSS data were available to estimate the county level random effects. We downscaled the smoking and obesity rate predictions to derive ZIP code and census tract estimates. To our knowledge these smoking and obesity predictions are the first to be developed for the entire conterminous U.S. for census tracts and ZIP codes. Our estimates could have significant utility for public health surveillance. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Impact of State Medical Malpractice Reform on Individual-Level Health Care Expenditures.

PubMed

Yu, Hao; Greenberg, Michael; Haviland, Amelia

2017-12-01

Past studies of the impact of state-level medical malpractice reforms on health spending produced mixed findings. Particularly salient is the evidence gap concerning the effect of different types of malpractice reform. This study aims to fill the gap. It extends the literature by examining the general population, not a subgroup or a specific health condition, and controlling for individual-level sociodemographic and health status. We merged the Database of State Tort Law Reforms with the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey between 1996 and 2012. We took a difference-in-differences approach to specify a two-part model for analyzing individual-level health spending. We applied the recycled prediction method and the bootstrapping technique to examining the difference in health spending growth between states with and without a reform. All expenditures were converted to 2010 U.S. dollars. Only two of the 10 major state-level malpractice reforms had significant impacts on the growth of individual-level health expenditures. The average annual expenditures in states with caps on attorney contingency fees increased less than that in states without the reform (p < .05). Compared with states with traditional contributory negligence rule, the average annual expenditures increased more in both states with a pure comparative fault reform (p < .05) and states with a comparative fault reform that barred recovery if the plaintiff's fault was equal to or greater than the defendant's (p < .05). A few state-level malpractice reforms had significantly affected the growth of individual-level health spending, and the direction and magnitude of the effects differed by type of reform. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Particle decay of proton-unbound levels in N 12

DOE PAGES

Chipps, K. A.; Pain, S. D.; Greife, U.; ...

2017-04-24

Transfer reactions are a useful tool for studying nuclear structure, particularly in the regime of low level densities and strong single-particle strengths. Additionally, transfer reactions can populate levels above particle decay thresholds, allowing for the possibility of studying the subsequent decays and furthering our understanding of the nuclei being probed. In particular, the decay of loosely bound nuclei such as 12 N can help inform and improve structure models.The purpose of this paper is to learn about the decay of excited states in 12 N , to more generally inform nuclear structure models, particularly in the case of particle-unbound levelsmore » in low-mass systems which are within the reach of state-of-the-art ab initio calculations.« less

Individual, household, programme and community effects on childhood malnutrition in rural India.

PubMed

Rajaram, S; Zottarelli, Lisa K; Sunil, T S

2007-04-01

The children living in rural areas of India disproportionately suffer from malnutrition compared with their urban counterparts. The present article analyses the individual, household, community and programme factors on nutritional status of children in rural India. Additionally, we consider the random variances at village and state levels after introducing various observed individual-, household- and programme-level characteristics in the model. A multilevel model is conducted using data from the National Family and Health Survey 2. The results show that maternal characteristics, such as socio-economic and behavioural factors, are more influential in determining childhood nutritional status than the prevalence of programme factors. Also, it was found that individual factors show evidence of state- and village-level clustering of malnutrition.

Causes of death and infant mortality rates among full-term births in the United States between 2010 and 2012: An observational study.

PubMed

Bairoliya, Neha; Fink, Günther

2018-03-01

While the high prevalence of preterm births and its impact on infant mortality in the US have been widely acknowledged, recent data suggest that even full-term births in the US face substantially higher mortality risks compared to European countries with low infant mortality rates. In this paper, we use the most recent birth records in the US to more closely analyze the primary causes underlying mortality rates among full-term births. Linked birth and death records for the period 2010-2012 were used to identify the state- and cause-specific burden of infant mortality among full-term infants (born at 37-42 weeks of gestation). Multivariable logistic models were used to assess the extent to which state-level differences in full-term infant mortality (FTIM) were attributable to observed differences in maternal and birth characteristics. Random effects models were used to assess the relative contribution of state-level variation to FTIM. Hypothetical mortality outcomes were computed under the assumption that all states could achieve the survival rates of the best-performing states. A total of 10,175,481 infants born full-term in the US between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2012, were analyzed. FTIM rate (FTIMR) was 2.2 per 1,000 live births overall, and ranged between 1.29 (Connecticut, 95% CI 1.08, 1.53) and 3.77 (Mississippi, 95% CI 3.39, 4.19) at the state level. Zero states reached the rates reported in the 6 low-mortality European countries analyzed (FTIMR < 1.25), and 13 states had FTIMR > 2.75. Sudden unexpected death in infancy (SUDI) accounted for 43% of FTIM; congenital malformations and perinatal conditions accounted for 31% and 11.3% of FTIM, respectively. The largest mortality differentials between states with good and states with poor FTIMR were found for SUDI, with particularly large risk differentials for deaths due to sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) (odds ratio [OR] 2.52, 95% CI 1.86, 3.42) and suffocation (OR 4.40, 95% CI 3.71, 5.21). Even though these mortality differences were partially explained by state-level differences in maternal education, race, and maternal health, substantial state-level variation in infant mortality remained in fully adjusted models (SIDS OR 1.45, suffocation OR 2.92). The extent to which these state differentials are due to differential antenatal care standards as well as differential access to health services could not be determined due to data limitations. Overall, our estimates suggest that infant mortality could be reduced by 4,003 deaths (95% CI 2,284, 5,587) annually if all states were to achieve the mortality levels of the best-performing state in each cause-of-death category. Key limitations of the analysis are that information on termination rates at the state level was not available, and that causes of deaths may have been coded differentially across states. More than 7,000 full-term infants die in the US each year. The results presented in this paper suggest that a substantial share of these deaths may be preventable. Potential improvements seem particularly large for SUDI, where very low rates have been achieved in a few states while average mortality rates remain high in most other areas. Given the high mortality burden due to SIDS and suffocation, policy efforts to promote compliance with recommended sleeping arrangements could be an effective first step in this direction.

229Thorium-doped calcium fluoride for nuclear laser spectroscopy.

PubMed

Dessovic, P; Mohn, P; Jackson, R A; Winkler, G; Schreitl, M; Kazakov, G; Schumm, T

2014-03-12

The (229)thorium isotope presents an extremely low-energy isomer state of the nucleus which is expected around 7.8 eV, in the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) regime. This unique system may bridge between atomic and nuclear physics, enabling coherent manipulation and precision spectroscopy of nuclear quantum states using laser light. It has been proposed to implant (229)thorium into VUV transparent crystal matrices to facilitate laser spectroscopy and possibly realize a solid-state nuclear clock. In this work, we validate the feasibility of this approach by computer modelling of thorium doping into calcium fluoride single crystals. Using atomistic modelling and full electronic structure calculations, we find a persistent large band gap and no additional electronic levels emerging in the middle of the gap due to the presence of the dopant, which should allow direct optical interrogation of the nuclear transition.Based on the electronic structure, we estimate the thorium nuclear quantum levels within the solid-state environment. Precision laser spectroscopy of these levels will allow the study of a broad range of crystal field effects, transferring Mössbauer spectroscopy into the optical regime.

Does higher income inequality adversely influence infant mortality rates? Reconciling descriptive patterns and recent research findings.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Arjumand; Jones, Marcella K; Erwin, Paul Campbell

2015-04-01

As the struggle continues to explain the relatively high rates of infant mortality (IMR) exhibited in the United States, a renewed emphasis is being placed on the role of possible 'contextual' determinants. Cross-sectional and short time-series studies have found that higher income inequality is associated with higher IMR at the state level. Yet, descriptively, the longer-term trends in income inequality and in IMR seem to call such results into question. To assess whether, over the period 1990-2007, state-level income inequality is associated with state-level IMR; to examine whether the overall effect of income inequality on IMR over this period varies by state; to test whether the association between income inequality and IMR varies across this time period. IMR data--number of deaths per 1000 live births in a given state and year--were obtained from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control Wonder database. Income inequality was measured using the Gini coefficient, which varies from zero (complete equality) to 100 (complete inequality). Covariates included state-level poverty rate, median income, and proportion of high school graduates. Fixed and random effects regressions were conducted to test hypotheses. Fixed effects models suggested that, overall, during the period 1990-2007, income inequality was inversely associated with IMR (β = -0.07, SE (0.01)). Random effects models suggested that when the relationship was allowed to vary at the state-level, it remained inverse (β = -0.05, SE (0.01)). However, an interaction between income inequality and time suggested that, as time increased, the effect of income inequality had an increasingly positive association with total IMR (β = 0.009, SE (0.002)). The influence of state income inequality on IMR is dependent on time, which may proxy for time-dependent aspects of societal context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonequivalent lanthanide defects: Energy level modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joos, Jonas J.; Poelman, Dirk; Smet, Philippe F.

2016-11-01

Empirical charge-state transition level schemes are popular tools to model the properties of lanthanide-doped materials and their construction has become standard practice. Typically, it is implicitly assumed that all lanthanide ions form isostructural defects. However, in practice, multiple nonequivalent defects related to the same lanthanide can occur or different lanthanides can even incorporate in different ways. The consequences of these complications on the impurity energy levels are discussed in this article. It seems that small structural differences around the lanthanide dopant can give rise to important spectral differences in its emission. These are not always clearly reproduced by the charge-state transition level schemes. Improvements to the existing procedure are suggested and applied to the lanthanide ions in the well-studied host crystals SrAl2O4, Sr2Si5N8 and SrGa2S4.

Effect of Field Spread on Resting-State Magneto Encephalography Functional Network Analysis: A Computational Modeling Study.

PubMed

Silva Pereira, Silvana; Hindriks, Rikkert; Mühlberg, Stefanie; Maris, Eric; van Ede, Freek; Griffa, Alessandra; Hagmann, Patric; Deco, Gustavo

2017-11-01

A popular way to analyze resting-state electroencephalography (EEG) and magneto encephalography (MEG) data is to treat them as a functional network in which sensors are identified with nodes and the interaction between channel time series and the network connections. Although conceptually appealing, the network-theoretical approach to sensor-level EEG and MEG data is challenged by the fact that EEG and MEG time series are mixtures of source activity. It is, therefore, of interest to assess the relationship between functional networks of source activity and the ensuing sensor-level networks. Since these topological features are of high interest in experimental studies, we address the question of to what extent the network topology can be reconstructed from sensor-level functional connectivity (FC) measures in case of MEG data. Simple simulations that consider only a small number of regions do not allow to assess network properties; therefore, we use a diffusion magnetic resonance imaging-constrained whole-brain computational model of resting-state activity. Our motivation lies behind the fact that still many contributions found in the literature perform network analysis at sensor level, and we aim at showing the discrepancies between source- and sensor-level network topologies by using realistic simulations of resting-state cortical activity. Our main findings are that the effect of field spread on network topology depends on the type of interaction (instantaneous or lagged) and leads to an underestimation of lagged FC at sensor level due to instantaneous mixing of cortical signals, instantaneous interaction is more sensitive to field spread than lagged interaction, and discrepancies are reduced when using planar gradiometers rather than axial gradiometers. We, therefore, recommend using lagged interaction measures on planar gradiometer data when investigating network properties of resting-state sensor-level MEG data.

Differential KrasV12 protein levels control a switch regulating lung cancer cell morphology and motility

PubMed Central

Schäfer, C.; Mohan, A.; Burford, W.; Driscoll, M. K.; Ludlow, A. T.; Wright, W. E.; Shay, J. W.; Danuser, G.

2016-01-01

Introduction Oncogenic Kras mutations are important drivers of lung cancer development and metastasis. They are known to activate numerous cellular signaling pathways implicated in enhanced proliferation, survival, tumorigenicity and motility during malignant progression. Objectives Most previous studies of Kras in cancer have focused on the comparison of cell states in the absence or presence of oncogenic Kras mutations. Here we show that differential expression of the constitutively active mutation KrasV12 has profound effects on cell morphology and motility that drive metastatic processes. Methods The study relies on lung cancer cell transformation models, patient-derived lung cancer cell lines, and human lung tumor sections combined with molecular biology techniques, live-cell imaging and staining methods. Results Our analysis shows two cell functional states driven by KrasV12 protein levels: a non-motile state associated with high KrasV12 levels and tumorigenicity, and a motile state associated with low KrasV12 levels and cell dissemination. Conversion between the states is conferred by differential activation of a mechano-sensitive double-negative feedback between KrasV12/ERK/Myosin II and matrix-adhesion signaling. KrasV12 expression levels change upon cues such as hypoxia and integrin-mediated cell-matrix adhesion, rendering KrasV12 levels an integrator of micro-environmental signals that translate into cellular function. By live cell imaging of tumor models we observe shedding of mixed high and low KrasV12 expressers forming multi-functional collectives with potentially optimal metastatic properties composed of a highly mobile and a highly tumorigenic unit. Discussion Together these data highlight previously unappreciated roles for the quantitative effects of expression level variation of oncogenic signaling molecules in conferring fundamental alterations in cell function regulation required for cancer progression. PMID:29057096

A Need Based In-Service Training Workshop for the Clerical Staff of the State of Florida Health and Rehabilitative Services.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ray, Barbara H.

The in-service training needs of first-level employees of the state health and rehabilitative clerical staff and the development and evaluation of an in-service training model workshop were investigated. Interviews were conducted with the first- and second-level supervisors to determine the needs of the clerical staff for in-service training, to…

Lifetimes of excited states in 196, 198Pt; Application of interacting boson approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolotin, H. H.; Stuchbery, A. E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D. L.; Ryan, C. G.; Sie, S. H.

1981-11-01

The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 1+ levels in 196, 198Pt were determined by the recoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220 MeV 58Ni ion beams and the measurements were carried out in coincidence with back-scattered projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even 194-198Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the interacting boson approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force; evaluative comparisons are also made with boson expansion theory (BET) calculations.

Novel Intrinsic Ignition Method Measuring Local-Global Integration Characterizes Wakefulness and Deep Sleep

PubMed Central

Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Sanjuán, Ana

2017-01-01

Abstract A precise definition of a brain state has proven elusive. Here, we introduce the novel local-global concept of intrinsic ignition characterizing the dynamical complexity of different brain states. Naturally occurring intrinsic ignition events reflect the capability of a given brain area to propagate neuronal activity to other regions, giving rise to different levels of integration. The ignitory capability of brain regions is computed by the elicited level of integration for each intrinsic ignition event in each brain region, averaged over all events. This intrinsic ignition method is shown to clearly distinguish human neuroimaging data of two fundamental brain states (wakefulness and deep sleep). Importantly, whole-brain computational modelling of this data shows that at the optimal working point is found where there is maximal variability of the intrinsic ignition across brain regions. Thus, combining whole brain models with intrinsic ignition can provide novel insights into underlying mechanisms of brain states. PMID:28966977

Organic semiconductor density of states controls the energy level alignment at electrode interfaces

PubMed Central

Oehzelt, Martin; Koch, Norbert; Heimel, Georg

2014-01-01

Minimizing charge carrier injection barriers and extraction losses at interfaces between organic semiconductors and metallic electrodes is critical for optimizing the performance of organic (opto-) electronic devices. Here, we implement a detailed electrostatic model, capable of reproducing the alignment between the electrode Fermi energy and the transport states in the organic semiconductor both qualitatively and quantitatively. Covering the full phenomenological range of interfacial energy level alignment regimes within a single, consistent framework and continuously connecting the limiting cases described by previously proposed models allows us to resolve conflicting views in the literature. Our results highlight the density of states in the organic semiconductor as a key factor. Its shape and, in particular, the energy distribution of electronic states tailing into the fundamental gap is found to determine both the minimum value of practically achievable injection barriers as well as their spatial profile, ranging from abrupt interface dipoles to extended band-bending regions. PMID:24938867

Novel Intrinsic Ignition Method Measuring Local-Global Integration Characterizes Wakefulness and Deep Sleep.

PubMed

Deco, Gustavo; Tagliazucchi, Enzo; Laufs, Helmut; Sanjuán, Ana; Kringelbach, Morten L

2017-01-01

A precise definition of a brain state has proven elusive. Here, we introduce the novel local-global concept of intrinsic ignition characterizing the dynamical complexity of different brain states. Naturally occurring intrinsic ignition events reflect the capability of a given brain area to propagate neuronal activity to other regions, giving rise to different levels of integration. The ignitory capability of brain regions is computed by the elicited level of integration for each intrinsic ignition event in each brain region, averaged over all events. This intrinsic ignition method is shown to clearly distinguish human neuroimaging data of two fundamental brain states (wakefulness and deep sleep). Importantly, whole-brain computational modelling of this data shows that at the optimal working point is found where there is maximal variability of the intrinsic ignition across brain regions. Thus, combining whole brain models with intrinsic ignition can provide novel insights into underlying mechanisms of brain states.

Individual changes in clozapine levels after smoking cessation: results and a predictive model.

PubMed

Meyer, J M

2001-12-01

Published reports document 20-40% lower mean serum clozapine concentrations in smokers compared with nonsmokers due to enzyme induction. Despite the increase in nonsmoking psychiatric facilities in the United States, previous studies have not tracked individual changes in serum clozapine levels after smoking cessation. Clozapine level changes were analyzed in 11 patients at Oregon State Hospital who were on stable clozapine doses, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide nonsmoking policy. A mean increase in clozapine levels of 71.9% (442.4 ng/ml +/- 598.8 ng/ml) occurred upon smoking cessation (p < .034) from a baseline level of 550.2 ng/ml (+/- 160.18 ng/ml). One serious adverse event, aspiration pneumonia, was associated with a nonsmoking serum clozapine level of 3066 ng/ml. Elimination of statistically extreme results generated a mean increase of 57.4 % or 284.1 ng/ml (+/- 105.2 ng/ml) for the remaining cases (p < .001) and permitted construction of a linear model which explains 80.9% of changes in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation (F = 34.9;p = .001): clozapine level as nonsmoker = 45.3 + 1.474 (clozapine level as smoker). These findings suggest that significant increases in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation may be predicted by use of a model. Those with high baseline levels should be monitored for serious adverse events.

The Glass Half Empty: How Emotional Exhaustion Affects the State-Trait Discrepancy in Self-Reports of Teaching Emotions

PubMed Central

Goetz, Thomas; Becker, Eva S.; Bieg, Madeleine; Keller, Melanie M.; Frenzel, Anne C.; Hall, Nathan C.

2015-01-01

Following from previous research on intensity bias and the accessibility model of emotional self-report, the present study examined the role of emotional exhaustion in explaining the discrepancy in teachers’ reports of their trait (habitual) versus state (momentary, “real”) emotions. Trait reports (habitual emotions, exhaustion) were assessed via trait questionnaires, and state reports (momentary emotions) were assessed in real time via the experience sampling method by using personal digital assistants (N = 69 high school teachers; 1,089 measures within teachers). In line with our assumptions, multi-level analyses showed that, as compared to the state assessment, teachers reported higher levels of habitual teaching-related emotions of anger, anxiety, shame, boredom, enjoyment, and pride. Additionally, the state-trait discrepancy in self-reports of negative emotions was accounted for by teachers’ emotional exhaustion, with high exhaustion levels corresponding with a greater state-trait discrepancy. Exhaustion levels did not moderate the state-trait discrepancy in positive emotions indicating that perceived emotional exhaustion may reflect identity-related cognitions specific to the negative belief system. Implications for research and educational practice are discussed. PMID:26368911

Fractional charge and inter-Landau-level states at points of singular curvature.

PubMed

Biswas, Rudro R; Son, Dam Thanh

2016-08-02

The quest for universal properties of topological phases is fundamentally important because these signatures are robust to variations in system-specific details. Aspects of the response of quantum Hall states to smooth spatial curvature are well-studied, but challenging to observe experimentally. Here we go beyond this prevailing paradigm and obtain general results for the response of quantum Hall states to points of singular curvature in real space; such points may be readily experimentally actualized. We find, using continuum analytical methods, that the point of curvature binds an excess fractional charge and sequences of quantum states split away, energetically, from the degenerate bulk Landau levels. Importantly, these inter-Landau-level states are bound to the topological singularity and have energies that are universal functions of bulk parameters and the curvature. Our exact diagonalization of lattice tight-binding models on closed manifolds demonstrates that these results continue to hold even when lattice effects are significant. An important technological implication of these results is that these inter-Landau-level states, being both energetically and spatially isolated quantum states, are promising candidates for constructing qubits for quantum computation.

The Glass Half Empty: How Emotional Exhaustion Affects the State-Trait Discrepancy in Self-Reports of Teaching Emotions.

PubMed

Goetz, Thomas; Becker, Eva S; Bieg, Madeleine; Keller, Melanie M; Frenzel, Anne C; Hall, Nathan C

2015-01-01

Following from previous research on intensity bias and the accessibility model of emotional self-report, the present study examined the role of emotional exhaustion in explaining the discrepancy in teachers' reports of their trait (habitual) versus state (momentary, "real") emotions. Trait reports (habitual emotions, exhaustion) were assessed via trait questionnaires, and state reports (momentary emotions) were assessed in real time via the experience sampling method by using personal digital assistants (N = 69 high school teachers; 1,089 measures within teachers). In line with our assumptions, multi-level analyses showed that, as compared to the state assessment, teachers reported higher levels of habitual teaching-related emotions of anger, anxiety, shame, boredom, enjoyment, and pride. Additionally, the state-trait discrepancy in self-reports of negative emotions was accounted for by teachers' emotional exhaustion, with high exhaustion levels corresponding with a greater state-trait discrepancy. Exhaustion levels did not moderate the state-trait discrepancy in positive emotions indicating that perceived emotional exhaustion may reflect identity-related cognitions specific to the negative belief system. Implications for research and educational practice are discussed.

Health-related quality of life among adults 65 years and older in the United States, 2011-2012: a multilevel small area estimation approach.

PubMed

Lin, Yu-Hsiu; McLain, Alexander C; Probst, Janice C; Bennett, Kevin J; Qureshi, Zaina P; Eberth, Jan M

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop county-level estimates of poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among aged 65 years and older U.S. adults and to identify spatial clusters of poor HRQOL using a multilevel, poststratification approach. Multilevel, random-intercept models were fit to HRQOL data (two domains: physical health and mental health) from the 2011-2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Using a poststratification, small area estimation approach, we generated county-level probabilities of having poor HRQOL for each domain in U.S. adults aged 65 and older, and validated our model-based estimates against state and county direct estimates. County-level estimates of poor HRQOL in the United States ranged from 18.07% to 44.81% for physical health and 14.77% to 37.86% for mental health. Correlations between model-based and direct estimates were higher for physical than mental HRQOL. Counties located in the Arkansas, Kentucky, and Mississippi exhibited the worst physical HRQOL scores, but this pattern did not hold for mental HRQOL, which had the highest probability of mentally unhealthy days in Illinois, Indiana, and Vermont. Substantial geographic variation in physical and mental HRQOL scores exists among older U.S. adults. State and local policy makers should consider these local conditions in targeting interventions and policies to counties with high levels of poor HRQOL scores. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Targeting pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men in the United States and Peru: partnership types, contact rates, and sexual role.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole B; Goodreau, Steven M; Liu, Albert; Vittinghoff, Eric; Sanchez, Jorge; Lama, Javier R; Buchbinder, Susan

2015-05-01

We aim to identify optimal strategies for deploying pre-exposure prophylaxis among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States and Peru to maximize population-level effectiveness in an efficient manner. We use epidemic models to simulate the impact of targeting strategies. Most studies have focused on targeting either the general population or high-risk MSM. Alternative strategies, including serodiscordant couples, may better balance effectiveness and efficiency. We use dynamic stochastic sexual network models based on exponential-family random graph modeling, parameterized from behavioral surveys of MSM in the United States and Peru. These models represent main partnerships and casual contacts separately, permitting modeling of interventions targeting men whose risk derives from combinations of relational types. We also model varying rates of uptake and adherence to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We assess sensitivity of results to risk compensation through increases in condomless casual contacts and condomless sex in main partnerships. Targeting all men who are not exclusively insertive has the largest impact on HIV incidence, but targeting only those with high levels of casual activity yields comparable results using fewer person-years on PrEP. The effect is robust to risk compensation in the United States, but less so in Peru. Targeting serodiscordant main partnerships does not significantly impact incidence, but requires fewer person-years on PrEP per infection averted than other strategies. PrEP could be effective in reducing new infections at the population level in both settings. Serodiscordant partnerships are an attractive component of a targeting program, but targeting should include other high-risk men.

Interactive, graphical processing unitbased evaluation of evacuation scenarios at the state scale

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perumalla, Kalyan S; Aaby, Brandon G; Yoginath, Srikanth B

2011-01-01

In large-scale scenarios, transportation modeling and simulation is severely constrained by simulation time. For example, few real- time simulators scale to evacuation traffic scenarios at the level of an entire state, such as Louisiana (approximately 1 million links) or Florida (2.5 million links). New simulation approaches are needed to overcome severe computational demands of conventional (microscopic or mesoscopic) modeling techniques. Here, a new modeling and execution methodology is explored that holds the potential to provide a tradeoff among the level of behavioral detail, the scale of transportation network, and real-time execution capabilities. A novel, field-based modeling technique and its implementationmore » on graphical processing units are presented. Although additional research with input from domain experts is needed for refining and validating the models, the techniques reported here afford interactive experience at very large scales of multi-million road segments. Illustrative experiments on a few state-scale net- works are described based on an implementation of this approach in a software system called GARFIELD. Current modeling cap- abilities and implementation limitations are described, along with possible use cases and future research.« less

Steady state volcanism - Evidence from eruption histories of polygenetic volcanoes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wadge, G.

1982-01-01

Cumulative volcano volume curves are presented as evidence for steady-state behavior at certain volcanoes and to develop a model of steady-state volcanism. A minimum criteria of five eruptions over a year was chosen to characterize a steady-state volcano. The subsequent model features a constant head of magmatic pressure from a reservoir supplied from depth, a sawtooth curve produced by the magma arrivals or discharge from the subvolcanic reservoir, large volume eruptions with long repose periods, and conditions of nonsupply of magma. The behavior of Mts. Etna, Nyamuragira, and Kilauea are described and show continuous levels of plasma output resulting in cumulative volume increases. Further discussion is made of steady-state andesitic and dacitic volcanism, long term patterns of the steady state, and magma storage, and the lack of a sufficient number of steady-state volcanoes in the world is taken as evidence that further data is required for a comprehensive model.

Problem of two-level hierarchical minimax program control the final state of regional social and economic system with incomplete information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shorikov, A. F.

2016-12-01

In this article we consider a discrete-time dynamical system consisting of a set a controllable objects (region and forming it municipalities). The dynamics each of these is described by the corresponding linear or nonlinear discrete-time recurrent vector relations and its control system consist from two levels: basic level (control level I) that is dominating level and auxiliary level (control level II) that is subordinate level. Both levels have different criterions of functioning and united by information and control connections which defined in advance. In this article we study the problem of optimization of guaranteed result for program control by the final state of regional social and economic system in the presence of risks vectors. For this problem we propose a mathematical model in the form of two-level hierarchical minimax program control problem of the final states of this system with incomplete information and the general scheme for its solving.

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishnan, Venkat; Cole, Wesley

This poster is based on the paper of the same name, presented at the IEEE Power & Energy Society General Meeting, July18, 2016. Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solarmore » modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions - native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level - and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.« less

Individual tree height increment model for managed even-aged stands of ponderosa pine throughout the western United States using linear mixed effects models

Treesearch

Fabian Uzoh; William W. Oliver

2006-01-01

A height increment model is developed and evaluated for individual trees of ponderosa pine throughout the species range in western United States. The data set used in this study came from long-term permanent research plots in even-aged, pure stands both planted and of natural origin. The data base consists of six levels-of-growing stock studies supplemented by initial...

Mean field model of acetylcholine mediated dynamics in the cerebral cortex.

PubMed

Clearwater, J M; Rennie, C J; Robinson, P A

2007-12-01

A recent continuum model of the large scale electrical activity of the cerebral cortex is generalized to include cholinergic modulation. In this model, dynamic modulation of synaptic strength acts over the time scales of nicotinic and muscarinic receptor action. The cortical model is analyzed to determine the effect of acetylcholine (ACh) on its steady states, linear stability, spectrum, and temporal responses to changes in subcortical input. ACh increases the firing rate in steady states of the system. Changing ACh concentration does not introduce oscillatory behavior into the system, but increases the overall spectral power. Model responses to pulses in subcortical input are affected by the tonic level of ACh concentration, with higher levels of ACh increasing the magnitude firing rate response of excitatory cortical neurons to pulses of subcortical input. Numerical simulations are used to explore the temporal dynamics of the model in response to changes in ACh concentration. Evidence is seen of a transition from a state in which intracortical inputs are emphasized to a state where thalamic afferents have enhanced influence. Perturbations in ACh concentration cause changes in the firing rate of cortical neurons, with rapid responses due to fast acting facilitatory effects of nicotinic receptors on subcortical afferents, and slower responses due to muscarinic suppression of intracortical connections. Together, these numerical simulations demonstrate that the actions of ACh could be a significant factor modulating early components of evoked response potentials.

Multiple switching modes and multiple level states in memristive devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Feng; Yang, J. Joshua; Borghetti, Julien; Strachan, John Paul; Zhang, M.-X.; Goldfarb, Ilan; Medeiros-Ribeiro, Gilberto; Williams, R. Stanley

2011-03-01

As one of the most promising technologies for next generation non-volatile memory, metal oxide based memristive devices have demonstrated great advantages on scalability, operating speed and power consumption. Here we report the observation of multiple switching modes and multiple level states in different memristive systems. The multiple switching modes can be obtained by limiting the current during electroforming, and related transport behaviors, including ionic and electronic motions, are characterized. Such observation can be rationalized by a model of two effective switching layers adjacent to the bottom and top electrodes. Multiple level states, corresponding to different composition of the conducting channel, will also be discussed in the context of multiple-level storage for high density, non-volatile memory applications.

Predictors of Initial Levels and Trajectories of Anxiety in Women Prior to and For Six Months Following Breast Cancer Surgery

PubMed Central

Kyranou, Marianna; Puntillo, Kathleen; Dunn, Laura B.; Aouizerat, Bradley E.; Paul, Steven M.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Neuhaus, John; West, Claudia; Dodd, Marylin; Miaskowski, Christine

2014-01-01

Background The diagnosis of breast cancer in combination with the anticipation of surgery evokes fear, uncertainty, and anxiety in most women. Objective In patients who underwent breast cancer surgery, study purposes were to examine how ratings of state anxiety changed from the time of the preoperative assessment to 6 months after surgery and to investigate whether specific demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics predicted the preoperative levels of state anxiety and/or characteristics of the trajectories of state anxiety. Interventions/Methods Patients (n=396) were enrolled preoperatively and completed the Spielberger State Anxiety inventory monthly for six months. Using hierarchical linear modeling, demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics were evaluated as predictors of initial levels and trajectories of state anxiety. Results Patients experienced moderate levels of anxiety prior to surgery. Higher levels of depressive symptoms and uncertainty about the future, as well as lower levels of life satisfaction, less sense of control, and greater difficulty coping predicted higher preoperative levels of state anxiety. Higher preoperative state anxiety, poorer physical health, decreased sense of control, and more feelings of isolation predicted higher state anxiety scores over time. Conclusions Moderate levels of anxiety persist in women for six months following breast cancer surgery. Implications for Practice Clinicians need to implement systematic assessments of anxiety to identify high risk women who warrant more targeted interventions. In addition, ongoing follow-up is needed in order to prevent adverse postoperative outcomes and to support women to return to their preoperative levels of function. PMID:24633334

Travel demand modeling for the small and medium sized MPOs in Illinois.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

Travel demand modeling is an important tool in the transportation planning community. It helps forecast travel : characteristics into the future at various planning levels such as state, region and corridor. Using travel demand : modeling to evaluate...

State-level marriage equality and the health of same-sex couples.

PubMed

Kail, Ben Lennox; Acosta, Katie L; Wright, Eric R

2015-06-01

We assessed the association between the health of people in same-sex relationships and the degree and nature of the legal recognition of same-sex relationships offered in the states in which they resided. We conducted secondary data analyses on the 2010 to 2013 Current Population Survey and publicly available data from Freedom to Marry, Inc. We estimated ordered logistic regression models in a 4-level framework to assess the impact of states' legal stances toward same-sex marriage on self-assessed health. Our findings indicated, relative to states with antigay constitutional amendments, that same-sex couples living in states with legally sanctioned marriage reported higher levels of self-assessed health. Our findings suggested that full legal recognition of same-sex relationships through marriage might be an important legal and policy strategy for improving the health of same-sex couples.

A High-Level Language for Modeling Algorithms and Their Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhtar, Sabina; Merz, Stephan; Quinson, Martin

Designers of concurrent and distributed algorithms usually express them using pseudo-code. In contrast, most verification techniques are based on more mathematically-oriented formalisms such as state transition systems. This conceptual gap contributes to hinder the use of formal verification techniques. Leslie Lamport introduced PlusCal, a high-level algorithmic language that has the "look and feel" of pseudo-code, but is equipped with a precise semantics and includes a high-level expression language based on set theory. PlusCal models can be compiled to TLA + and verified using the model checker tlc.

Restructuring consciousness -the psychedelic state in light of integrated information theory.

PubMed

Gallimore, Andrew R

2015-01-01

The psychological state elicited by the classic psychedelics drugs, such as LSD and psilocybin, is one of the most fascinating and yet least understood states of consciousness. However, with the advent of modern functional neuroimaging techniques, the effect of these drugs on neural activity is now being revealed, although many of the varied phenomenological features of the psychedelic state remain challenging to explain. Integrated information theory (IIT) is one of the foremost contemporary theories of consciousness, providing a mathematical formalization of both the quantity and quality of conscious experience. This theory can be applied to all known states of consciousness, including the psychedelic state. Using the results of functional neuroimaging data on the psychedelic state, the effects of psychedelic drugs on both the level and structure of consciousness can be explained in terms of the conceptual framework of IIT. This new IIT-based model of the psychedelic state provides an explanation for many of its phenomenological features, including unconstrained cognition, alterations in the structure and meaning of concepts and a sense of expanded awareness. This model also suggests that whilst cognitive flexibility, creativity, and imagination are enhanced during the psychedelic state, this occurs at the expense of cause-effect information, as well as degrading the brain's ability to organize, categorize, and differentiate the constituents of conscious experience. Furthermore, the model generates specific predictions that can be tested using a combination of functional imaging techniques, as has been applied to the study of levels of consciousness during anesthesia and following brain injury.

A continuum model of transcriptional bursting

PubMed Central

Corrigan, Adam M; Tunnacliffe, Edward; Cannon, Danielle; Chubb, Jonathan R

2016-01-01

Transcription occurs in stochastic bursts. Early models based upon RNA hybridisation studies suggest bursting dynamics arise from alternating inactive and permissive states. Here we investigate bursting mechanism in live cells by quantitative imaging of actin gene transcription, combined with molecular genetics, stochastic simulation and probabilistic modelling. In contrast to early models, our data indicate a continuum of transcriptional states, with a slowly fluctuating initiation rate converting the gene between different levels of activity, interspersed with extended periods of inactivity. We place an upper limit of 40 s on the lifetime of fluctuations in elongation rate, with initiation rate variations persisting an order of magnitude longer. TATA mutations reduce the accessibility of high activity states, leaving the lifetime of on- and off-states unchanged. A continuum or spectrum of gene states potentially enables a wide dynamic range for cell responses to stimuli. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13051.001 PMID:26896676

Complete protein-protein association kinetics in atomic detail revealed by molecular dynamics simulations and Markov modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plattner, Nuria; Doerr, Stefan; de Fabritiis, Gianni; Noé, Frank

2017-10-01

Protein-protein association is fundamental to many life processes. However, a microscopic model describing the structures and kinetics during association and dissociation is lacking on account of the long lifetimes of associated states, which have prevented efficient sampling by direct molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. Here we demonstrate protein-protein association and dissociation in atomistic resolution for the ribonuclease barnase and its inhibitor barstar by combining adaptive high-throughput MD simulations and hidden Markov modelling. The model reveals experimentally consistent intermediate structures, energetics and kinetics on timescales from microseconds to hours. A variety of flexibly attached intermediates and misbound states funnel down to a transition state and a native basin consisting of the loosely bound near-native state and the tightly bound crystallographic state. These results offer a deeper level of insight into macromolecular recognition and our approach opens the door for understanding and manipulating a wide range of macromolecular association processes.

Vertical land motion controls regional sea level rise patterns on the United States east coast since 1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piecuch, C. G.; Huybers, P. J.; Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Little, C. M.; Ponte, R. M.; Tingley, M.

2017-12-01

Understanding observed spatial variations in centennial relative sea level trends on the United States east coast has important scientific and societal applications. Past studies based on models and proxies variously suggest roles for crustal displacement, ocean dynamics, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. Here we perform joint Bayesian inference on regional relative sea level, vertical land motion, and absolute sea level fields based on tide gauge records and GPS data. Posterior solutions show that regional vertical land motion explains most (80% median estimate) of the spatial variance in the large-scale relative sea level trend field on the east coast over 1900-2016. The posterior estimate for coastal absolute sea level rise is remarkably spatially uniform compared to previous studies, with a spatial average of 1.4-2.3 mm/yr (95% credible interval). Results corroborate glacial isostatic adjustment models and reveal that meaningful long-period, large-scale vertical velocity signals can be extracted from short GPS records.

Hopf-link topological nodal-loop semimetals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yao; Xiong, Feng; Wan, Xiangang; An, Jin

2018-04-01

We construct a generic two-band model which can describe topological semimetals with multiple closed nodal loops. All the existing multi-nodal-loop semimetals, including the nodal-net, nodal-chain, and Hopf-link states, can be examined within the same framework. Based on a two-nodal-loop model, the corresponding drumhead surface states for these topologically different bulk states are studied and compared with each other. The connection of our model with Hopf insulators is also discussed. Furthermore, to identify experimentally these topologically different semimetal states, especially to distinguish the Hopf-link from unlinked ones, we also investigate their Landau levels. It is found that the Hopf-link state can be characterized by the existence of a quadruply degenerate zero-energy Landau band, regardless of the direction of the magnetic field.

Models of State K-12 Educational Governance: Where Does Indiana Stand? Education Policy Brief. Volume 6, Number 1, Winter 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanley, Kylie; Spradlin, Terry E.; Johnson Shaun

2008-01-01

Because Indiana places a premium on providing quality public education to its students, as reflected by the state constitution and budget, assuring quality candidates are appointed or elected for state educational leadership positions must also be a priority. This policy brief examines educational leadership roles at the state level. The position…

Geographic and Individual Differences in Healthcare Access for U.S. Transgender Adults: A Multilevel Analysis.

PubMed

White Hughto, Jaclyn M; Murchison, Gabriel R; Clark, Kirsty; Pachankis, John E; Reisner, Sari L

2016-12-01

To identify geographic and individual-level factors associated with healthcare access among transgender people in the United States. Multilevel analyses were conducted to investigate lifetime healthcare refusal using national data from 5831 U.S. transgender adults. Hierarchical generalized linear models examined associations between individual (age, gender, race, income, insurance, and healthcare avoidance) and state-level factors (percent voting Republican, percent same-sex couple households, income inequality, and transgender protective laws) and lifetime refusal of care. Results show that individual-level factors (being older; trans feminine; Native American, multiracial, or other racial/ethnic minority; having low income; and avoiding care due to discrimination) are positively associated with care refusal (all P-values <0.05). Adjusting for individual-level factors, variation was observed across U.S. states, with a greater proportion of states in the Southern and Western United States with transgender residents at increased odds of experiencing care refusal, relative to other regions of the United States. When adjusting for state-level factors, the percentage of the state population voting Republican was positively associated with care refusal among the transgender adults sampled (P < 0.01). Transgender adults surveyed reported differential access to healthcare by geographic region. Identifying geographic and individual-level factors associated with healthcare barriers allows for the development of targeted educational and policy interventions to improve healthcare access for transgender people most in need of services.

High-Power Collective Charging of a Solid-State Quantum Battery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferraro, Dario; Campisi, Michele; Andolina, Gian Marcello; Pellegrini, Vittorio; Polini, Marco

2018-03-01

Quantum information theorems state that it is possible to exploit collective quantum resources to greatly enhance the charging power of quantum batteries (QBs) made of many identical elementary units. We here present and solve a model of a QB that can be engineered in solid-state architectures. It consists of N two-level systems coupled to a single photonic mode in a cavity. We contrast this collective model ("Dicke QB"), whereby entanglement is genuinely created by the common photonic mode, to the one in which each two-level system is coupled to its own separate cavity mode ("Rabi QB"). By employing exact diagonalization, we demonstrate the emergence of a quantum advantage in the charging power of Dicke QBs, which scales like √{N } for N ≫1 .

Combining the GW formalism with the polarizable continuum model: A state-specific non-equilibrium approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Duchemin, Ivan, E-mail: ivan.duchemin@cea.fr; Jacquemin, Denis; Institut Universitaire de France, 1 rue Descartes, 75005 Paris Cedex 5

We have implemented the polarizable continuum model within the framework of the many-body Green’s function GW formalism for the calculation of electron addition and removal energies in solution. The present formalism includes both ground-state and non-equilibrium polarization effects. In addition, the polarization energies are state-specific, allowing to obtain the bath-induced renormalisation energy of all occupied and virtual energy levels. Our implementation is validated by comparisons with ΔSCF calculations performed at both the density functional theory and coupled-cluster single and double levels for solvated nucleobases. The present study opens the way to GW and Bethe-Salpeter calculations in disordered condensed phases ofmore » interest in organic optoelectronics, wet chemistry, and biology.« less

Deformed supersymmetric quantum mechanics with spin variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedoruk, Sergey; Ivanov, Evgeny; Sidorov, Stepan

2018-01-01

We quantize the one-particle model of the SU(2|1) supersymmetric multiparticle mechanics with the additional semi-dynamical spin degrees of freedom. We find the relevant energy spectrum and the full set of physical states as functions of the mass-dimension deformation parameter m and SU(2) spin q\\in (Z_{>0,}1/2+Z_{≥0}) . It is found that the states at the fixed energy level form irreducible multiplets of the supergroup SU(2|1). Also, the hidden superconformal symmetry OSp(4|2) of the model is revealed in the classical and quantum cases. We calculate the OSp(4|2) Casimir operators and demonstrate that the full set of the physical states belonging to different energy levels at fixed q are unified into an irreducible OSp(4|2) multiplet.

Azole energetic materials: Initial mechanisms for the energy release from electronical excited nitropyrazoles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, Bing; Yu, Zijun; Bernstein, Elliot R., E-mail: erb@lamar.Colostate.edu

2014-01-21

Decomposition of energetic material 3,4-dinitropyrazole (DNP) and two model molecules 4-nitropyrazole and 1-nitropyrazole is investigated both theoretically and experimentally. The initial decomposition mechanisms for these three nitropyrazoles are explored with complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) level. The NO molecule is observed as an initial decomposition product from all three materials subsequent to UV excitation. Observed NO products are rotationally cold (<50 K) for all three systems. The vibrational temperature of the NO product from DNP is (3850 ± 50) K, 1350 K hotter than that of the two model species. Potential energy surface calculations at the CASSCF(12,8)/6-31+G(d) level illustratemore » that conical intersections plays an essential role in the decomposition mechanism. Electronically excited S{sub 2} nitropyraozles can nonradiatively relax to lower electronic states through (S{sub 2}/S{sub 1}){sub CI} and (S{sub 1}/S{sub 0}){sub CI} conical intersection and undergo a nitro-nitrite isomerization to generate NO product either in the S{sub 1} state or S{sub 0} state. In model systems, NO is generated in the S{sub 1} state, while in the energetic material DNP, NO is produced on the ground state surface, as the S{sub 1} decomposition pathway is energetically unavailable. The theoretically predicted mechanism is consistent with the experimental results, as DNP decomposes in a lower electronic state than do the model systems and thus the vibrational energy in the NO product from DNP should be hotter than from the model systems. The observed rotational energy distributions for NO are consistent with the final structures of the respective transition states for each molecule.« less

The economic impacts of Lake States forestry: an input-output study.

Treesearch

Larry Pedersen; Daniel E. Chappelle; David C. Lothner

1989-01-01

The report describes 1985 and 1995 levels of forest-related economic activity in the three-state area of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and their impacts on other economic sectors based on a regional input-output model.

Mathematical Modeling in Systems for Operational Evaluation of the Stress-Strain State of the Arch-Gravity Dam at the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bellendir, E. N.; Gordon, L. A., E-mail: lev-gordon@mail.ru; Khrapkov, A. A.

Current studies of the stress-strain state of the dam at the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Power Plant at VNIIG based on mathematical modeling including full scale and experimental data are described. Applications and programs intended for automatic operational evaluation of the stress-strain state of the dam for optimizing control of the upper race level in the course of the annual filling-drawdown cycle and during seismic events are examined. Improvements in systems for monitoring the stress-strain state of concrete dams are proposed.

On-line diagnosis of sequential systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sundstrom, R. J.

1973-01-01

A model for on-line diagnosis was investigated for discrete-time systems, and resettable sequential systems. Generalized notions of a realization are discussed along with fault tolerance and errors. Further investigation into the theory of on-line diagnosis is recommended for three levels: binary state-assigned level, logical circuit level, and the subsystem-network level.

International comparison of experience-based health state values at the population level.

PubMed

Heijink, Richard; Reitmeir, Peter; Leidl, Reiner

2017-07-07

Decision makers need to know whether health state values, an important component of summary measures of health, are valid for their target population. A key outcome is the individuals' valuation of their current health. This experience-based perspective is increasingly used to derive health state values. This study is the first to compare such experience-based valuations at the population level across countries. We examined the relationship between respondents' self-rated health as measured by the EQ-VAS, and the different dimensions and levels of the EQ-5D-3 L. The dataset included almost 32,000 survey respondents from 15 countries. We estimated generalized linear models with logit link function, including country-specific models and pooled-data models with country effects. The results showed significant and meaningful differences in the valuation of health states and individual health dimensions between countries, even though similarities were present too. Between countries, coefficients correlated positively for the values of mobility, self-care and usual activities, but not for the values of pain and anxiety, thus underlining structural differences. The findings indicate that, ideally, population-specific experience-based value sets are developed and used for the calculation of health outcomes. Otherwise, sensitivity analyses are needed. Furthermore, transferring the results of foreign studies into the national context should be performed with caution. We recommend future studies to investigate the causes of differences in experience-based health state values through a single international study possibly complemented with qualitative research on the determinants of valuation.

Grandchild, Grandparent, and Parent Coresidence from 1970 to 1990: Structural Factors Affecting State Patterns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Twyla J.

2006-01-01

This study analyzes structural forces affecting state patterns of parental presence within grandparent-grandchild coresidence by testing demographic, social change, policy environment, and social problems models. The project combines published state-level data with the 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Samples. While factors…

Predicting Middle Level State Standardized Test Results Using Family and Community Demographic Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tienken, Christopher H.; Colella, Anthony; Angelillo, Christian; Fox, Meredith; McCahill, Kevin R.; Wolfe, Adam

2017-01-01

The use of standardized test results to drive school administrator evaluations pervades education policymaking in more than 40 states. However, the results of state standardized tests are strongly influenced by non-school factors. The models of best fit (n = 18) from this correlational, explanatory, longitudinal study predicted accurately the…

Lowering Barriers to Progress at the State Level

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hite, John; Boulos, Jayne

2011-01-01

On September 27th, Maine finally joined 47 other states in allowing the use of the term "school psychologist" for those holding a masters or specialist degree. Furthermore, Maine has become the first and only state to write the NASP Practice Model into law, thus holding school-based psychologists to the highest professional standards.…

Part C Service Coordination: State Policies and Models. Synthesis Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markowitz, Joy

This brief paper summarizes data from a survey of state coordinators of Part C of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act concerning service coordination to infants and toddlers with disabilities. The survey examined variations in service coordination at the state level including roles of parents, values of key stakeholders, sources of…

Analysis of control system responses for aircraft stability and efficient numerical techniques for real-time simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroe, Gabriela; Andrei, Irina-Carmen; Frunzulica, Florin

2017-01-01

The objectives of this paper are the study and the implementation of both aerodynamic and propulsion models, as linear interpolations using look-up tables in a database. The aerodynamic and propulsion dependencies on state and control variable have been described by analytic polynomial models. Some simplifying hypotheses were made in the development of the nonlinear aircraft simulations. The choice of a certain technique to use depends on the desired accuracy of the solution and the computational effort to be expended. Each nonlinear simulation includes the full nonlinear dynamics of the bare airframe, with a scaled direct connection from pilot inputs to control surface deflections to provide adequate pilot control. The engine power dynamic response was modeled with an additional state equation as first order lag in the actual power level response to commanded power level was computed as a function of throttle position. The number of control inputs and engine power states varied depending on the number of control surfaces and aircraft engines. The set of coupled, nonlinear, first-order ordinary differential equations that comprise the simulation model can be represented by the vector differential equation. A linear time-invariant (LTI) system representing aircraft dynamics for small perturbations about a reference trim condition is given by the state and output equations present. The gradients are obtained numerically by perturbing each state and control input independently and recording the changes in the trimmed state and output equations. This is done using the numerical technique of central finite differences, including the perturbations of the state and control variables. For a reference trim condition of straight and level flight, linearization results in two decoupled sets of linear, constant-coefficient differential equations for longitudinal and lateral / directional motion. The linearization is valid for small perturbations about the reference trim condition. Experimental aerodynamic and thrust data are used to model the applied aerodynamic and propulsion forces and moments for arbitrary states and controls. There is no closed form solution to such problems, so the equations must be solved using numerical integration. Techniques for solving this initial value problem for ordinary differential equations are employed to obtain approximate solutions at discrete points along the aircraft state trajectory.

Workshop on Engineering Turbulence Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Povinelli, Louis A. (Editor); Liou, W. W. (Editor); Shabbir, A. (Editor); Shih, T.-H. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Discussed here is the future direction of various levels of engineering turbulence modeling related to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) computations for propulsion. For each level of computation, there are a few turbulence models which represent the state-of-the-art for that level. However, it is important to know their capabilities as well as their deficiencies in order to help engineers select and implement the appropriate models in their real world engineering calculations. This will also help turbulence modelers perceive the future directions for improving turbulence models. The focus is on one-point closure models (i.e., from algebraic models to higher order moment closure schemes and partial differential equation methods) which can be applied to CFD computations. However, other schemes helpful in developing one-point closure models, are also discussed.

Lagged Associations of Metropolitan Statistical Area- and State-Level Income Inequality with Cognitive Function: The Health and Retirement Study.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; Kabeto, Mohammed; Escarce, José; Langa, Kenneth M; Shih, Regina A

2016-01-01

Much variation in individual-level cognitive function in late life remains unexplained, with little exploration of area-level/contextual factors to date. Income inequality is a contextual factor that may plausibly influence cognitive function. In a nationally-representative cohort of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined state- and metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level income inequality as predictors of individual-level cognitive function measured by the 27-point Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-m) scale. We modeled latency periods of 8-20 years, and controlled for state-/metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level and individual-level factors. Higher MSA-level income inequality predicted lower cognitive function 16-18 years later. Using a 16-year lag, living in a MSA in the highest income inequality quartile predicted a 0.9-point lower TICS-m score (β = -0.86; 95% CI = -1.41, -0.31), roughly equivalent to the magnitude associated with five years of aging. We observed no associations for state-level income inequality. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses using propensity score methods. Among older Americans, MSA-level income inequality appears to influence cognitive function nearly two decades later. Policies reducing income inequality levels within cities may help address the growing burden of declining cognitive function among older populations within the United States.

Lagged Associations of Metropolitan Statistical Area- and State-Level Income Inequality with Cognitive Function: The Health and Retirement Study

PubMed Central

Kim, Daniel; Griffin, Beth Ann; Kabeto, Mohammed; Escarce, José; Langa, Kenneth M.; Shih, Regina A.

2016-01-01

Purpose Much variation in individual-level cognitive function in late life remains unexplained, with little exploration of area-level/contextual factors to date. Income inequality is a contextual factor that may plausibly influence cognitive function. Methods In a nationally-representative cohort of older Americans from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined state- and metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level income inequality as predictors of individual-level cognitive function measured by the 27-point Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-m) scale. We modeled latency periods of 8–20 years, and controlled for state-/metropolitan statistical area (MSA)-level and individual-level factors. Results Higher MSA-level income inequality predicted lower cognitive function 16–18 years later. Using a 16-year lag, living in a MSA in the highest income inequality quartile predicted a 0.9-point lower TICS-m score (β = -0.86; 95% CI = -1.41, -0.31), roughly equivalent to the magnitude associated with five years of aging. We observed no associations for state-level income inequality. The findings were robust to sensitivity analyses using propensity score methods. Conclusions Among older Americans, MSA-level income inequality appears to influence cognitive function nearly two decades later. Policies reducing income inequality levels within cities may help address the growing burden of declining cognitive function among older populations within the United States. PMID:27332986

Including Recently Arrived English Learners in State Accountability Systems: An Empirical Illustration of Models. WCER Working Paper No. 2017-1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cook, H. Gary; Sahakyan, Narek; Linquanti, Robert

2017-01-01

The authors develop model analyses based on a U.S. Department of Education guide to illustrate procedures a State could use to compare and contrast school-level overall and English Learner accountability determinations for proficiency in reading/language arts under the options allowed by the Every Student Succeeds Act. As a technical reference,…

Chapter 5: Application of state-and-transition models to evaluate wildlife habitat

Treesearch

Anita T. Morzillo; Pamela Comeleo; Blair Csuti; Stephanie Lee

2014-01-01

Wildlife habitat analysis often is a central focus of natural resources management and policy. State-and-transition models (STMs) allow for simulation of landscape level ecological processes, and for managers to test “what if” scenarios of how those processes may affect wildlife habitat. This chapter describes the methods used to link STM output to wildlife habitat to...

Guidelines for model calibration and application to flow simulation in the Death Valley regional groundwater system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, M.C.; D'Agnese, F. A.; Faunt, C.C.

2000-01-01

Fourteen guidelines are described which are intended to produce calibrated groundwater models likely to represent the associated real systems more accurately than typically used methods. The 14 guidelines are discussed in the context of the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States. This groundwater flow system contains two sites of national significance from which the subsurface transport of contaminants could be or is of concern: Yucca Mountain, which is the potential site of the United States high-level nuclear-waste disposal; and the Nevada Test Site, which contains a number of underground nuclear-testing locations. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and also to direct further model development and data collection.Fourteen guidelines are described which are intended to produce calibrated groundwater models likely to represent the associated real systems more accurately than typically used methods. The 14 guidelines are discussed in the context of the calibration of a regional groundwater flow model of the Death Valley region in the southwestern United States. This groundwater flow system contains two sites of national significance from which the subsurface transport of contaminants could be or is of concern: Yucca Mountain, which is the potential site of the United States high-level nuclear-waste disposal; and the Nevada Test Site, which contains a number of underground nuclear-testing locations. This application of the guidelines demonstrates how they may be used for model calibration and evaluation, and also to direct further model development and data collection.

Van der Waals potential and vibrational energy levels of the ground state radon dimer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Xiaowei; Qian, Shifeng; Hu, Fengfei

2017-08-01

In the present paper, the ground state van der Waals potential of the Radon dimer is described by the Tang-Toennies potential model, which requires five essential parameters. Among them, the two dispersion coefficients C6 and C8 are estimated from the well determined dispersion coefficients C6 and C8 of Xe2. C10 is estimated by using the approximation equation that C6C10/C82 has an average value of 1.221 for all the rare gas dimers. With these estimated dispersion coefficients and the well determined well depth De and Re the Born-Mayer parameters A and b are derived. Then the vibrational energy levels of the ground state radon dimer are calculated. 40 vibrational energy levels are observed in the ground state of Rn2 dimer. The last vibrational energy level is bound by only 0.0012 cm-1.

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of single-molecule photon arrival trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hajdziona, Marta; Molski, Andrzej

2011-02-01

In this work we explore the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood-based analysis of one-color photon arrival trajectories. This approach does not involve binning and, therefore, all of the information contained in an observed photon strajectory is used. We study the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We focus on the low excitation regime where photon trajectories can be modeled as realizations of Markov modulated Poisson processes. The number of observed photons is the key parameter in determining model selection and parameter estimation. For example, the BIC can select the true three-state model from competing two-, three-, and four-state kinetic models even for relatively short trajectories made up of 2 × 103 photons. When the intensity levels are well-separated and 104 photons are observed, the two-state model parameters can be estimated with about 10% precision and those for a three-state model with about 20% precision.

State firearm laws, firearm ownership, and safety practices among families of preschool-aged children.

PubMed

Prickett, Kate C; Martin-Storey, Alexa; Crosnoe, Robert

2014-06-01

We investigated how state-level firearms legislation is associated with firearm ownership and storage among families with preschool-aged children. Using 2005 nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort (n = 8100), we conducted multinomial regression models to examine the associations between state-level firearms legislation generally, child access prevention (CAP) firearms legislation specifically, and parental firearm ownership and storage safety practices. Overall, 8% of families with children aged 4 years living in states with stronger firearm laws and CAP laws owned firearms compared with 24% of families in states with weaker firearm laws and no CAP laws. Storage behaviors of firearm owners differed minimally across legislative contexts. When we controlled for family- and state-level characteristics, we found that firearm legislation and CAP laws interacted to predict ownership and storage behaviors, with unsafe storage least likely among families in states with both CAP laws and stronger firearm legislation. Broader firearm legislation is linked with the efficacy of child-specific legislation in promoting responsible firearm ownership.

Interconversion of intrinsic defects in SrTi O3(001 )

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, S. A.; Du, Y.; Zhu, Z.; Wang, J.; Wahila, M. J.; Piper, L. F. J.; Prakash, A.; Yue, J.; Jalan, B.; Spurgeon, S. R.; Kepaptsoglou, D. M.; Ramasse, Q. M.; Sushko, P. V.

2018-06-01

Photoemission features associated with states deep in the band gap of n -SrTi O3(001 ) are found to be ubiquitous in bulk crystals and epitaxial films. These features are present even when there is little signal near the Fermi level. Analysis reveals that these states are deep-level traps associated with defects. The commonly investigated defects—O vacancies, Sr vacancies, and aliovalent impurity cations on the Ti sites—cannot account for these features. Rather, ab initio modeling points to these states resulting from interstitial oxygen and its interaction with donor electrons.

[Modeling asthma evolution by a multi-state model].

PubMed

Boudemaghe, T; Daurès, J P

2000-06-01

There are many scores for the evaluation of asthma. However, most do not take into account the evolutionary aspects of this illness. We propose a model for the clinical course of asthma by a homogeneous Markov model process based on data provided by the A.R.I.A. (Association de Recherche en Intelligence Artificielle dans le cadre de l'asthme et des maladies respiratoires). The criterion used is the activity of the illness during the month before consultation. The activity is divided into three levels: light (state 1), mild (state 2) and severe (state 3). The model allows the evaluation of the strength of transition between states. We found that strong intensities were implicated towards state 2 (lambda(12) and lambda(32)), less towards state 1 (lambda(21) and lambda(31)), and minimum towards state 3 (lambda(23)). This results in an equilibrium distribution essentially divided between state 1 and 2 (44.6% and 51.0% respectively) with a small proportion in state 3 (4.4%). In the future, the increasing amount of available data should permit the introduction of covariables, the distinction of subgroups and the implementation of clinical studies. The interest of this model falls within the domain of the quantification of the illness as well as the representation allowed thereof, while offering a formal framework for the clinical notion of time and evolution.

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Gibson, E J; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, A A; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

2018-01-01

Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors.

Spectroscopic analysis of electron trapping levels in pentacene field-effect transistors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chang Bum

2014-08-01

Electron trapping phenomena have been investigated with respect to the energy levels of localized trap states and bias-induced device instability effects in pentacene field-effect transistors. The mechanism of the photoinduced threshold voltage shift (ΔVT) is presented by providing a ΔVT model governed by the electron trapping. The trap-and-release behaviour functionalized by photo-irradiation also shows that the trap state for electrons is associated with the energy levels in different positions in the forbidden gap of pentacene. Spectroscopic analysis identifies two kinds of electron trap states distributed above and below the energy of 2.5 eV in the band gap of the pentacene crystal. The study of photocurrent spectra shows the specific trap levels of electrons in energy space that play a substantial role in causing device instability. The shallow and deep trapping states are distributed at two centroidal energy levels of ˜1.8 and ˜2.67 eV in the pentacene band gap. Moreover, we present a systematic energy profile of electron trap states in the pentacene crystal for the first time.

Thread mapping using system-level model for shared memory multicores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Reshmi

Exploring thread-to-core mapping options for a parallel application on a multicore architecture is computationally very expensive. For the same algorithm, the mapping strategy (MS) with the best response time may change with data size and thread counts. The primary challenge is to design a fast, accurate and automatic framework for exploring these MSs for large data-intensive applications. This is to ensure that the users can explore the design space within reasonable machine hours, without thorough understanding on how the code interacts with the platform. Response time is related to the cycles per instructions retired (CPI), taking into account both active and sleep states of the pipeline. This work establishes a hybrid approach, based on Markov Chain Model (MCM) and Model Tree (MT) for system-level steady state CPI prediction. It is designed for shared memory multicore processors with coarse-grained multithreading. The thread status is represented by the MCM states. The program characteristics are modeled as the transition probabilities, representing the system moving between active and suspended thread states. The MT model extrapolates these probabilities for the actual application size (AS) from the smaller AS performance. This aspect of the framework, along with, the use of mathematical expressions for the actual AS performance information, results in a tremendous reduction in the CPI prediction time. The framework is validated using an electromagnetics application. The average performance prediction error for steady state CPI results with 12 different MSs is less than 1%. The total run time of model is of the order of minutes, whereas the actual application execution time is in terms of days.

Benzoates intakes from non-alcoholic beverages in Brazil, Canada, Mexico and the United States.

PubMed

Martyn, Danika; Lau, Annette; Darch, Maryse; Roberts, Ashley

2017-09-01

Food consumption data from national dietary surveys were combined with brand-specific-use levels reported by beverage manufacturers to calculate the exposure to benzoic acid and its salts (INS Nos 210-213) from non-alcoholic beverages in Brazil, Canada, Mexico and the United States. These four jurisdictions were identified as having some of the most prevalent use of benzoates in beverages globally. Use levels were weighted according to the brand's market volume share in the respective countries. Benzoates were reported to be used primarily in 'water-based flavoured drinks' (Codex General Standard for Food Additives (GSFA) category 14.1.4). As such, the assessments focused only on intakes from these beverage types. Two different models were established to determine exposure: probabilistic (representing non-brand loyal consumers) and distributional (representing brand-loyal consumers). All reported-use levels were incorporated into both models, including those above the Codex interim maximum benzoate use level (250 mg kg -1 ). The exception to this was in the brand-loyal models for consumers of regular carbonated soft drinks (brand loyal category) which used (1) the interim maximum use level for beverages with a pH ≤ 3.5 and (2) all reported use levels for beverages pH > 3.5 (up to 438 mg kg -1 ). The estimated exposure levels using both models were significantly lower than the ADI established for benzoates at the mean level of intake (4-40% ADI) and lower than - or at the ADI only for toddlers/children - at the 95th percentile (23-110% ADI). The results rendered in the models do not indicate a safety concern in these jurisdictions, and as such provide support for maintaining the current Codex interim maximum benzoate level of 250 mg kg -1 in water-based beverages.

The Microgravity Isolation Mount: A Linearized State-Space Model a la Newton and Kane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, R. David; Tryggvason, Bjarni V.; DeCarufel, Jean; Townsend, Miles A.; Wagar, William O.

1999-01-01

Vibration acceleration levels on large space platforms exceed the requirements of many space experiments. The Microgravity Vibration Isolation Mount (MIM) was built by the Canadian Space Agency to attenuate these disturbances to acceptable levels, and has been operational on the Russian Space Station Mir since May 1996. It has demonstrated good isolation performance and has supported several materials science experiments. The MIM uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to levitate and isolate payloads at the individual experiment/sub-experiment (versus rack) level. Payload acceleration, relative position, and relative orientation (Euler-parameter) measurements are fed to a state-space controller. The controller, in turn, determines the actuator currents needed for effective experiment isolation. This paper presents the development of an algebraic, state-space model of the MIM, in a form suitable for optimal controller design. The equations are first derived using Newton's Second Law directly; then a second derivation (i.e., validation) of the same equations is provided, using Kane's approach.

Life Prediction of Large Lithium-Ion Battery Packs with Active and Passive Balancing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shi, Ying; Smith, Kandler A; Zane, Regan

Lithium-ion battery packs take a major part of large-scale stationary energy storage systems. One challenge in reducing battery pack cost is to reduce pack size without compromising pack service performance and lifespan. Prognostic life model can be a powerful tool to handle the state of health (SOH) estimate and enable active life balancing strategy to reduce cell imbalance and extend pack life. This work proposed a life model using both empirical and physical-based approaches. The life model described the compounding effect of different degradations on the entire cell with an empirical model. Then its lower-level submodels considered the complex physicalmore » links between testing statistics (state of charge level, C-rate level, duty cycles, etc.) and the degradation reaction rates with respect to specific aging mechanisms. The hybrid approach made the life model generic, robust and stable regardless of battery chemistry and application usage. The model was validated with a custom pack with both passive and active balancing systems implemented, which created four different aging paths in the pack. The life model successfully captured the aging trajectories of all four paths. The life model prediction errors on capacity fade and resistance growth were within +/-3% and +/-5% of the experiment measurements.« less

Model Evaluation and Ensemble Modelling of Surface-Level Ozone in Europe and North America in the Context of AQMEII

EPA Science Inventory

More than ten state-of-the-art regional air quality models have been applied as part of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). These models were run by twenty independent groups in Europe and North America. Standardised modelling outputs over a full y...

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients.

PubMed

Bratzler, Dale W; Normand, Sharon-Lise T; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F; Rapp, Michael T; Krumholz, Harlan M

2011-04-12

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998-2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998-2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25(th), 50(th), and 75(th) percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.

An Administrative Claims Model for Profiling Hospital 30-Day Mortality Rates for Pneumonia Patients

PubMed Central

Bratzler, Dale W.; Normand, Sharon-Lise T.; Wang, Yun; O'Donnell, Walter J.; Metersky, Mark; Han, Lein F.; Rapp, Michael T.; Krumholz, Harlan M.

2011-01-01

Background Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia. Methodology/Principal Findings Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032). Conclusions/Significance An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model. PMID:21532758

Dietary restriction decreases coenzyme Q and ubiquinol potentially via changes in gene expression in the model organism C. elegans.

PubMed

Fischer, Alexandra; Klapper, Maja; Onur, Simone; Menke, Thomas; Niklowitz, Petra; Döring, Frank

2015-05-06

Dietary restriction (DR) is a robust intervention that extends both health span and life span in many organisms. Ubiquinol and ubiquinone represent the reduced and oxidized forms of coenzyme Q (CoQ). CoQ plays a central role in energy metabolism and functions in several cellular processes including gene expression. Here we used the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans to determine level and redox state of CoQ and expression of genes in response to DR. We found that DR down-regulates the steady-state expression levels of several evolutionary conserved genes (i.e. coq-1) that encode key enzymes of the mevalonate and CoQ-synthesizing pathways. In line with this, DR decreases the levels of total CoQ and ubiquinol. This CoQ-reducing effect of DR is obvious in adult worms but not in L4 larvae and is also evident in the eat-2 mutant, a genetic model of DR. In conclusion, we propose that DR reduces the level of CoQ and ubiquinol via gene expression in the model organism C. elegans. © 2015 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

State-specific transport properties of electronically excited Ar and C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istomin, V. A.; Kustova, E. V.

2018-05-01

In the present study, a theoretical model of state-resolved transport properties in electronically excited atomic species developed earlier is applied to argon and carbon atomic species. It is shown that for Ar and C, similarly to the case of atomic nitrogen and oxygen, the Slater-like models can be applied to calculate diameters of electronically excited atoms. Using the Slater-like model it is shown that for half-filled N (2 px1py1pz1) and full-filled Ar (3 px2py2pz2) electronic shells the growth of atomic radius goes slowly compared to C (2 px1py1) and O (2 px2py1pz1). The effect of collision diameters on the transport properties of Ar and C is evaluated. The influence of accounted number of electronic levels on the transport coefficients is examined for the case of Boltzmann distributions over electronic energy levels. It is emphasized that in the temperature range 1000-14000 K, for Boltzmann-like distributions over electronic states the number of accounted electronic levels do not influence the transport coefficients. Contrary to this, for higher temperatures T > 14000 K this effect becomes of importance, especially for argon.

Algorithms for Performance, Dependability, and Performability Evaluation using Stochastic Activity Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deavours, Daniel D.; Qureshi, M. Akber; Sanders, William H.

1997-01-01

Modeling tools and technologies are important for aerospace development. At the University of Illinois, we have worked on advancing the state of the art in modeling by Markov reward models in two important areas: reducing the memory necessary to numerically solve systems represented as stochastic activity networks and other stochastic Petri net extensions while still obtaining solutions in a reasonable amount of time, and finding numerically stable and memory-efficient methods to solve for the reward accumulated during a finite mission time. A long standing problem when modeling with high level formalisms such as stochastic activity networks is the so-called state space explosion, where the number of states increases exponentially with size of the high level model. Thus, the corresponding Markov model becomes prohibitively large and solution is constrained by the the size of primary memory. To reduce the memory necessary to numerically solve complex systems, we propose new methods that can tolerate such large state spaces that do not require any special structure in the model (as many other techniques do). First, we develop methods that generate row and columns of the state transition-rate-matrix on-the-fly, eliminating the need to explicitly store the matrix at all. Next, we introduce a new iterative solution method, called modified adaptive Gauss-Seidel, that exhibits locality in its use of data from the state transition-rate-matrix, permitting us to cache portions of the matrix and hence reduce the solution time. Finally, we develop a new memory and computationally efficient technique for Gauss-Seidel based solvers that avoids the need for generating rows of A in order to solve Ax = b. This is a significant performance improvement for on-the-fly methods as well as other recent solution techniques based on Kronecker operators. Taken together, these new results show that one can solve very large models without any special structure.

VDT microplane model with anisotropic effectiveness and plasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benelfellah, Abdelkibir; Gratton, Michel; Caliez, Michael; Frachon, Arnaud; Picart, Didier

2018-03-01

The opening-closing state of the microcracks is a kinematic phenomenon usually modeled using a set of damage effectiveness variables, which results in different elastic responses for the same damage level. In this work, the microplane model with volumetric, deviatoric and tangential decomposition denoted V-D-T is modified. The influence of the confining pressure is taken into account in the damage variables evolution laws. For a better understanding of the mechanisms introduced into the model, the damage rosettes are presented for a strain given level. The model is confirmed through comparisons of the simulations with the experimental results of monotonic, and cyclic tensile and compressive testing with different levels of confining pressure.

Active transportation and demand management (ATDM) trajectory-level validation state of the practice review.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-04-15

This state of the practice review is a literature and industry review of existing vehicle trajectory datasets, vehicle trajectory collection methods, and traffic simulation model validation techniques. This report has the following four sections and ...

Structure of the low-lying positive parity states in the proton-neutron symplectic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganev, H. G.

2018-05-01

The proton-neutron symplectic model with Sp(12, R) dynamical symmetry is applied for the simultaneous description of the microscopic structure of the low-lying states of the ground state, γ and β bands in 166 Er. For this purpose, the model Hamiltonian is diagonalized in the space of stretched states by exploiting the SUp (3) ⊗ SUn (3) symmetry-adapted basis. The theoretical predictions are compared with experiment and some other microscopic collective models, like the one-component Sp(6, R) symplectic and pseudo-SU(3) models. A good description of the energy levels of the three bands under consideration, as well as the enhanced intraband B(E2) transition strengths between the states of the ground and γ bands is obtained without the use of effective charges. The results show the presence of a good SU(3) dynamical symmetry. It is also shown that, in contrast to the Sp(6, R) case, the lowest excited bands, e.g., the β and γ bands, naturally appear together with the ground state band within a single Sp(12, R) irreducible representation.

A Monte-Carlo Analysis of Organic Aerosol Volatility with Aerosol Microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, C. Y.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bauer, S. E.

2016-12-01

A newly developed box model scheme, MATRIX-VBS, includes the volatility-basis set (VBS) framework in an aerosol microphysical scheme MATRIX (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state), which resolves aerosol mass and number concentrations and aerosol mixing state. The new scheme advanced the representation of organic aerosols in Earth system models by improving the traditional and simplistic treatment of organic aerosols as non-volatile and with a fixed size distribution. Further development includes adding the condensation of organics on coarse mode aerosols - dust and sea salt, thus making all organics in the system semi-volatile. To test and simplify the model, a Monte-Carlo analysis is performed to pin point which processes affect organics the most under which chemical and meteorological conditions. Since the model's parameterizations have the ability to capture a very wide range of conditions, from very clean to very polluted and for a wide range of meteorological conditions, all possible scenarios on Earth across the whole parameter space, including temperature, location, emissions and oxidant levels, are examined. The Monte-Carlo simulations provide quantitative information on the sensitivity of the newly developed model and help us understand how organics are affecting the size distribution, mixing state and volatility distribution at varying levels of meteorological conditions and pollution levels. In addition, these simulations give information on which parameters play a critical role in the aerosol distribution and evolution in the atmosphere and which do not, that will facilitate the simplification of the box model, an important step in its implementation in the global model.

A general approach for predicting the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States

PubMed Central

Bommarito, Michael J.; Blackman, Josh

2017-01-01

Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. To do so, we develop a time-evolving random forest classifier that leverages unique feature engineering to predict more than 240,000 justice votes and 28,000 cases outcomes over nearly two centuries (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an important advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications. PMID:28403140

Infant Mouse Model for the Study of Shedding and Transmission during Streptococcus pneumoniae Monoinfection

PubMed Central

Zafar, M. Ammar; Kono, Masamitsu; Wang, Yang; Zangari, Tonia

2016-01-01

One of the least understood aspects of the bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) is its transmission from host to host, the critical first step in both the carrier state and the disease state. To date, transmission models have depended on influenza A virus coinfection, which greatly enhances pneumococcal shedding to levels that allow acquisition by a new host. Here, we describe an infant mouse model that can be utilized to study pneumococcal colonization, shedding, and transmission during bacterial monoinfection. Using this model, we demonstrated that the level of bacterial shedding is highest in pups infected intranasally at age 4 days and peaks over the first 4 days postchallenge. Shedding results differed among isolates of five different pneumococcal types. Colonization density was found to be a major factor in the level of pneumococcal shedding and required expression of capsule. Transmission within a litter occurred when there was a high ratio of colonized “index” pups to uncolonized “contact” pups. Transmission was observed for each of the well-colonizing pneumococcal isolates, with the rate of transmission proportional to the level of shedding. This model can be used to examine bacterial and host factors that contribute to pneumococcal transmission without the effects of viral coinfection. PMID:27400721

Developing a PLC-friendly state machine model: lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pessemier, Wim; Deconinck, Geert; Raskin, Gert; Saey, Philippe; Van Winckel, Hans

2014-07-01

Modern Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) have become an attractive platform for controlling real-time aspects of astronomical telescopes and instruments due to their increased versatility, performance and standardization. Likewise, vendor-neutral middleware technologies such as OPC Unified Architecture (OPC UA) have recently demonstrated that they can greatly facilitate the integration of these industrial platforms into the overall control system. Many practical questions arise, however, when building multi-tiered control systems that consist of PLCs for low level control, and conventional software and platforms for higher level control. How should the PLC software be structured, so that it can rely on well-known programming paradigms on the one hand, and be mapped to a well-organized OPC UA interface on the other hand? Which programming languages of the IEC 61131-3 standard closely match the problem domains of the abstraction levels within this structure? How can the recent additions to the standard (such as the support for namespaces and object-oriented extensions) facilitate a model based development approach? To what degree can our applications already take advantage of the more advanced parts of the OPC UA standard, such as the high expressiveness of the semantic modeling language that it defines, or the support for events, aggregation of data, automatic discovery, ... ? What are the timing and concurrency problems to be expected for the higher level tiers of the control system due to the cyclic execution of control and communication tasks by the PLCs? We try to answer these questions by demonstrating a semantic state machine model that can readily be implemented using IEC 61131 and OPC UA. One that does not aim to capture all possible states of a system, but rather one that attempts to organize the course-grained structure and behaviour of a system. In this paper we focus on the intricacies of this seemingly simple task, and on the lessons that we've learned during the development process of such a "PLC-friendly" state machine model.

The relationship between gun ownership and firearm homicide rates in the United States, 1981-2010.

PubMed

Siegel, Michael; Ross, Craig S; King, Charles

2013-11-01

We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy-the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm-and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides.

State Estimation Using Dependent Evidence Fusion: Application to Acoustic Resonance-Based Liquid Level Measurement.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaobin; Li, Zhenghui; Li, Guo; Zhou, Zhe

2017-04-21

Estimating the state of a dynamic system via noisy sensor measurement is a common problem in sensor methods and applications. Most state estimation methods assume that measurement noise and state perturbations can be modeled as random variables with known statistical properties. However in some practical applications, engineers can only get the range of noises, instead of the precise statistical distributions. Hence, in the framework of Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory, a novel state estimatation method by fusing dependent evidence generated from state equation, observation equation and the actual observations of the system states considering bounded noises is presented. It can be iteratively implemented to provide state estimation values calculated from fusion results at every time step. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a low-frequency acoustic resonance level gauge to obtain high-accuracy measurement results.

Extreme storm surge modelling in the North Sea. The role of the sea state, forcing frequency and spatial forcing resolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ridder, Nina; de Vries, Hylke; Drijfhout, Sybren; van den Brink, Henk; van Meijgaard, Erik; de Vries, Hans

2018-02-01

This study shows that storm surge model performance in the North Sea is mostly unaffected by the application of temporal variations of surface drag due to changes in sea state provided the choice of a suitable constant Charnock parameter in the sea-state-independent case. Including essential meteorological features on smaller scales and minimising interpolation errors by increasing forcing data resolution are shown to be more important for the improvement of model performance particularly at the high tail of the probability distribution. This is found in a modelling study using WAQUA/DCSMv5 by evaluating the influence of a realistic air-sea momentum transfer parameterization and comparing it to the influence of changes in the spatial and temporal resolution of the applied forcing fields in an effort to support the improvement of impact and climate analysis studies. Particular attention is given to the representation of extreme water levels over the past decades based on the example of the Netherlands. For this, WAQUA/DCSMv5 is forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Model results are obtained from a set of different forcing fields, which either (i) include a wave-state-dependent Charnock parameter or (ii) apply a constant Charnock parameter ( α C h = 0.032) tuned for young sea states in the North Sea, but differ in their spatial and/or temporal resolution. Increasing forcing field resolution from roughly 79 to 12 km through dynamically downscaling can reduce the modelled low bias, depending on coastal station, by up to 0.25 m for the modelled extreme water levels with a 1-year return period and between 0.1 m and 0.5 m for extreme surge heights.

State-by-state variations in cardiac rehabilitation participation are associated with educational attainment, income, and program availability.

PubMed

Gaalema, Diann E; Higgins, Stephen T; Shepard, Donald S; Suaya, Jose A; Savage, Patrick D; Ades, Philip A

2014-01-01

Wide geographic variations in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) participation in the United States have been demonstrated but are not well understood. Socioeconomic factors such as educational attainment are robust predictors of many health-related behaviors, including smoking, obesity, physical activity, substance abuse, and cardiovascular disease. We investigated potential associations between state-level differences in educational attainment, other socioeconomic factors, CR program availability, and variations in CR participation. A retrospective database analysis was conducted using data from the US Census Bureau, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the 1997 Medicare database. The outcome of interest was CR participation rates by state, and predictors included state-level high school (HS) graduation rates (in 2001 and 1970), median household income, smoking rates, density of CR program (programs per square mile and per state population), sex and race ratios, and median age. The relationship between HS graduation rates and CR participation by state was significant for both 2001 and 1970 (r = 0.64 and 0.44, respectively, P < .01). Adding the density of CR programs (per population) and income contributed significantly with a cumulative r value of 0.74 and 0.71 for the models using 2001 and 1970, respectively (Ps < .01). The amount of variance accounted for by each of the 3 variables differed between the 2000 and 1970 graduation rates, but both models were unaltered by including additional variables. State-level HS graduation rates, CR programs expressed as programs per population, and median income were strongly associated with geographic variations in CR participation rates.

Emergency response and field observation activities of geoscientists in California (USA) during the September 29, 2009, Samoa Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Rick I.; Dengler, Lori A.; Goltz, James D.; Legg, Mark R.; Miller, Kevin M.; Ritchie, Andy; Whitmore, Paul M.

2011-07-01

State geoscientists (geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, and engineers) in California work closely with federal, state and local government emergency managers to help prepare coastal communities for potential impacts from a tsunami before, during, and after an event. For teletsunamis, as scientific information (forecast model wave heights, first-wave arrival times, etc.) from NOAA's West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is made available, federal- and state-level emergency managers must help convey this information in a concise, comprehensible and timely manner to local officials who ultimately determine the appropriate response activities for their jurisdictions. During the September 29, 2009 Tsunami Advisory for California, government geoscientists assisted the California Emergency Management Agency by providing technical assistance during teleconference meetings with NOAA and other state and local emergency managers prior to the arrival of the tsunami. This technical assistance included background information on anticipated tidal conditions when the tsunami was set to arrive, wave height estimates from state-modeled scenarios for areas not covered by NOAA's forecast models, and clarifying which regions of the state were at greatest risk. Over the last year, state geoscientists have started to provide additional assistance: 1) working closely with NOAA to simplify their tsunami alert messaging and expand their forecast modeling coverage; 2) creating "playbooks" containing information from existing tsunami scenarios for local emergency managers to reference during an event; and, 3) developing a state-level information "clearinghouse" and pre-tsunami field response team to assist local officials as well as observe and report tsunami effects. Activities of geoscientists were expanded during the more recent Tsunami Advisory on February 27, 2010, including deploying a geologist from the California Geological Survey as a field observer who provided information back to emergency managers.

Puffed-up but shaky selves: State self-esteem level and variability in narcissists.

PubMed

Geukes, Katharina; Nestler, Steffen; Hutteman, Roos; Dufner, Michael; Küfner, Albrecht C P; Egloff, Boris; Denissen, Jaap J A; Back, Mitja D

2017-05-01

Different theoretical conceptualizations characterize grandiose narcissists by high, yet fragile self-esteem. Empirical evidence, however, has been inconsistent, particularly regarding the relationship between narcissism and self-esteem fragility (i.e., self-esteem variability). Here, we aim at unraveling this inconsistency by disentangling the effects of two theoretically distinct facets of narcissism (i.e., admiration and rivalry) on the two aspects of state self-esteem (i.e., level and variability). We report on data from a laboratory-based and two field-based studies (total N = 596) in realistic social contexts, capturing momentary, daily, and weekly fluctuations of state self-esteem. To estimate unbiased effects of narcissism on the level and variability of self-esteem within one model, we applied mixed-effects location scale models. Results of the three studies and their meta-analytical integration indicated that narcissism is positively linked to self-esteem level and variability. When distinguishing between admiration and rivalry, however, an important dissociation was identified: Admiration was related to high (and rather stable) levels of state self-esteem, whereas rivalry was related to (rather low and) fragile self-esteem. Analyses on underlying processes suggest that effects of rivalry on self-esteem variability are based on stronger decreases in self-esteem from one assessment to the next, particularly after a perceived lack of social inclusion. The revealed differentiated effects of admiration and rivalry explain why the analysis of narcissism as a unitary concept has led to the inconsistent past findings and provide deeper insights into the intrapersonal dynamics of grandiose narcissism governing state self-esteem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Air-climate-energy investigations with a state-level Integrated Assessment Model: GCAM-USA

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change, and energy goals.  GCAM includes technology-rich representations of the energy, transportatio...

A Leadership Model for University Geology Department Teacher Inservice Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sheldon, Daniel S.; And Others

1983-01-01

Provides geology departments and science educators with a leadership model for developing earth science inservice programs. Model emphasizes cooperation/coordination among departments, science educators, and curriculum specialists at local/intermediate/state levels. Includes rationale for inservice programs and geology department involvement in…

Implementation of a Sage-Based Stirling Model Into a System-Level Numerical Model of the Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Maxwell H.

2011-01-01

The Fission Power System (FPS) project is developing a Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) to verify the performance and functionality of a subscale version of the FPS reference concept in a relevant environment, and to verify component and system models. As hardware is developed for the TDU, component and system models must be refined to include the details of specific component designs. This paper describes the development of a Sage-based pseudo-steady-state Stirling convertor model and its implementation into a system-level model of the TDU.

Waif goodbye! Average-size female models promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

PubMed

Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

2011-10-01

Despite consensus that exposure to media images of thin fashion models is associated with poor body image and disordered eating behaviours, few attempts have been made to enact change in the media. This study sought to investigate an effective alternative to current media imagery, by exploring the advertising effectiveness of average-size female fashion models, and their impact on the body image of both women and men. A sample of 171 women and 120 men were assigned to one of three advertisement conditions: no models, thin models and average-size models. Women and men rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as thin and no models. For women with average and high levels of internalisation of cultural beauty ideals, exposure to average-size female models was associated with a significantly more positive body image state in comparison to exposure to thin models and no models. For men reporting high levels of internalisation, exposure to average-size models was also associated with a more positive body image state in comparison to viewing thin models. These findings suggest that average-size female models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

Assessment of Traffic-Related Noise in Three Cities in the United States

PubMed Central

Lee, Eunice Y.; Jerrett, Michael; Ross, Zev; Coogan, Patricia F.; Seto, Edmund Y. W.

2014-01-01

Background Traffic-related noise is a growing public health concern in developing and developed countries due to increasing vehicle traffic. Epidemiological studies have reported associations between noise exposure and high blood pressure, increased risk of hypertension and heart disease, and stress induced by sleep disturbance and annoyance. These findings motivate the need for regular noise assessments within urban areas. This paper assesses the relationships between traffic and noise in three US cities. Methods Noise measurements were conducted in downtown areas in three cities in the United States: Atlanta, Los Angeles, and New York City. For each city, we measured ambient noise levels, and assessed their correlation with simultaneously measured vehicle counts, and with traffic data provided by local Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPO). Additionally, measured noise levels were compared to noise levels predicted by the Federal Highway Administration’s Traffic Noise Model using (1) simultaneously measured traffic counts or (2) MPO traffic data sources as model input. Results We found substantial variations in traffic and noise within and between cities. Total number of vehicle counts explained a substantial amount of variation in measured ambient noise in Atlanta (78%), Los Angeles (58%), and New York City (62%). Modeled noise levels were moderately correlated with measured noise levels when observed traffic counts were used as model input. Weaker correlations were found when MPO traffic data was used as model input. Conclusions Ambient noise levels measured in all three cities were correlated with traffic data, highlighting the importance of traffic planning in mitigating noise-related health effects. Model performance was sensitive to the traffic data used as input. Future noise studies that use modeled noise estimates should evaluate traffic data quality and should ideally include other factors, such as local roadway, building, and meteorological characteristics. PMID:24792415

An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

Water withdrawals for thermoelectric power plants account for approximately half of the total water use in the United States. With growing electricity demands in the future and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states in the U.S., grasping the trade-off between energy and water requires an integrated modeling approach that can capture the interactions among energy, water availability, climate, technology, and economic factors at various scales. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, with 14 geopolitical regions that are further dissaggregated into up to 18 agro-ecological zones, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. More specifically, GCAM was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and demands, and the associated water withdrawals and consumptions under a set of six scenarios with extensive levels of details on generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and water use intensities. The state-level estimates were compared against available inventories where good agreement was achieved on national and regional levels. We then explored the electric-sector water use up to 2095, focusing on implications from: 1) socioeconomics and growing demands, 2) the adoption of climate mitigation policy (e.g., RCP4.5 W/m2 vs. a reference scenario), 3) the transition of cooling systems, 4) constraints on electricity trading across states (full trading vs. limited trading), and 5) the adoption of water saving technologies. Overall, the fast retirement of once-through cooling, together with the gradual transition from fossil fuels dominant to a mixture of different fuels, accelerate the decline of water withdrawals and correspondingly compensate consumptive water use. Results reveal that U.S. electricity generation expands significantly as population grows, while U.S. electric-sector water withdrawals are projected to decline by 8.6% - 89% by 2095 and water consumptions are projected to increase by 14% - 101%. Some regional patterns could be observed when analyzing the state-level results spatially. Under the climate mitigation policy (RCP4.5) scenario, nuclear power plants contribute heavily to total electric-sector water withdrawal and consumption in Eastern U.S., while under the reference scenario, coal power plants are the primary water users in Eastern U.S. In the reference scenario, Eastern U.S. is projected to experience substantial drops in water withdrawals, while the Western U.S. will likely endure a moderate increase over the century. The highly-resolved nature of this study both geographically and technologically provides a useful platform to address scientific and policy relevant and emerging issues at the heart of the water-energy nexus in the U.S. Although this study is focused on the U.S., it is performed in the context of the global framework of GCAM where local changes can propagate to influence decisions in other regions outside of the U.S. and vice versa.

Rydberg interaction induced enhanced excitation in thermal atomic vapor.

PubMed

Kara, Dushmanta; Bhowmick, Arup; Mohapatra, Ashok K

2018-03-27

We present the experimental demonstration of interaction induced enhancement in Rydberg excitation or Rydberg anti-blockade in thermal atomic vapor. We have used optical heterodyne detection technique to measure Rydberg population due to two-photon excitation to the Rydberg state. The anti-blockade peak which doesn't satisfy the two-photon resonant condition is observed along with the usual two-photon resonant peak which can't be explained using the model with non-interacting three-level atomic system. A model involving two interacting atoms is formulated for thermal atomic vapor using the dressed states of three-level atomic system to explain the experimental observations. A non-linear dependence of vapor density is observed for the anti-blockade peak which also increases with increase in principal quantum number of the Rydberg state. A good agreement is found between the experimental observations and the proposed interacting model. Our result implies possible applications towards quantum logic gates using Rydberg anti-blockade in thermal atomic vapor.

What role for law in achieving transboundary drainage basin security?--the development and testing of the Legal Assessment Model (LAM) for transboundary watercourse states.

PubMed

Wouters, P K

2004-01-01

The beneficial use of the world's transboundary waters raises difficult issues for drainage basin security on most parts of the globe. International law provides that each transboundary watercourse State is entitled to, and obliged to ensure, an "equitable and reasonable use" of these shared waters. The IWLRI developed and tested a Legal Assessment Model (LAM) through the work of interdisciplinary teams working in three different transboundary situations--China (upstream), Mozambique (downstream) and Palestine (shared groundwater). The LAM provides a tool for transboundary watercourse States to use in the preparation of their national water strategy for use at the national and international levels. The model should now be tested at the basin level, with a view to assisting to accomplish the peaceful and rational use of transboundary waters in line with the governing rule of international law and thereby to facilitate the overall policy objective of drainage basin security.

Estimating Power System Dynamic States Using Extended Kalman Filter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Huang, Zhenyu; Schneider, Kevin P.; Nieplocha, Jaroslaw

2014-10-31

Abstract—The state estimation tools which are currently deployed in power system control rooms are based on a steady state assumption. As a result, the suite of operational tools that rely on state estimation results as inputs do not have dynamic information available and their accuracy is compromised. This paper investigates the application of Extended Kalman Filtering techniques for estimating dynamic states in the state estimation process. The new formulated “dynamic state estimation” includes true system dynamics reflected in differential equations, not like previously proposed “dynamic state estimation” which only considers the time-variant snapshots based on steady state modeling. This newmore » dynamic state estimation using Extended Kalman Filter has been successfully tested on a multi-machine system. Sensitivity studies with respect to noise levels, sampling rates, model errors, and parameter errors are presented as well to illustrate the robust performance of the developed dynamic state estimation process.« less

Predictions of Poisson's ratio in cross-ply laminates containing matrix cracks and delaminations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Charles E.; Allen, David H.; Nottorf, Eric W.

1989-01-01

A damage-dependent constitutive model for laminated composites has been developed for the combined damage modes of matrix cracks and delaminations. The model is based on the concept of continuum damage mechanics and uses second-order tensor valued internal state variables to represent each mode of damage. The internal state variables are defined as the local volume average of the relative crack face displacements. Since the local volume for delaminations is specified at the laminate level, the constitutive model takes the form of laminate analysis equations modified by the internal state variables. Model implementation is demonstrated for the laminate engineering modulus E(x) and Poisson's ratio nu(xy) of quasi-isotropic and cross-ply laminates. The model predictions are in close agreement to experimental results obtained for graphite/epoxy laminates.

Excited-state dynamics of acetylene excited to individual rotational level of the V04K01 subband

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Makarov, Vladimir I.; Kochubei, Sergei A.; Khmelinskii, Igor V.

2006-01-01

Dynamics of the IR emission induced by excitation of the acetylene molecule using the (32Ka0,1,2,ÃAu1←41la1,X˜Σg+1) transition was investigated. The observed IR emission was assigned to transitions between the ground-state vibrational levels. Acetylene fluorescence quenching induced by external electric and magnetic fields acting upon the system prepared using the (34Ka1,ÃAu1←00la0,X˜Σg+1) excitation was also studied. External electric field creates an additional radiationless pathway to the ground-state levels, coupling levels of the ÃAu1 excited state to the quasiresonant levels of the X˜Σg+1 ground state. The level density of the ground state in the vicinity of the excited state is very high, thus the electric-field-induced transition is irreversible, with the rate constant described by the Fermi rule. Magnetic field alters the decay profile without changing the fluorescence quantum yield in collisionless conditions. IR emission from the CCH transient was detected, and was also affected by the external electric and magnetic fields. Acetylene predissociation was demonstrated to proceed by the direct S1→S0 mechanism. The results were explained using the previously developed theoretical approach, yielding values of the relevant model parameters.

Prevalence, level and distribution of Salmonella in shipments of imported capsicum and sesame seed spice offered for entry to the United States: observations and modeling results.

PubMed

Van Doren, Jane M; Blodgett, Robert J; Pouillot, Régis; Westerman, Ann; Kleinmeier, Daria; Ziobro, George C; Ma, Yinqing; Hammack, Thomas S; Gill, Vikas; Muckenfuss, Martin F; Fabbri, Linda

2013-12-01

In response to increased concerns about spice safety, the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) initiated research to characterize the prevalence and levels of Salmonella in imported spices. 299 imported dried capsicum shipments and 233 imported sesame seed shipments offered for entry to the United States were sampled. Observed Salmonella shipment prevalence was 3.3% (1500 g examined; 95% CI 1.6-6.1%) for capsicum and 9.9% (1500 g; 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 6.3-14%) for sesame seed. Within shipment contamination was not inconsistent with a Poisson distribution. Shipment mean Salmonella level estimates among contaminated shipments ranged from 6 × 10(-4) to 0.09 (capsicum) or 6 × 10(-4) to 0.04 (sesame seed) MPN/g. A gamma-Poisson model provided the best fit to observed data for both imported shipments of capsicum and imported shipments of sesame seed sampled in this study among the six parametric models considered. Shipment mean levels of Salmonella vary widely between shipments; many contaminated shipments contain low levels of contamination. Examination of sampling plan efficacy for identifying contaminated spice shipments from these distributions indicates that sample size of spice examined is critical. Sampling protocols examining 25 g samples are predicted to be able to identify a small fraction of contaminated shipments of imported capsicum or sesame seeds. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Self-Adaptive Dynamic Recognition Model for Fatigue Driving Based on Multi-Source Information and Two Levels of Fusion

PubMed Central

Sun, Wei; Zhang, Xiaorui; Peeta, Srinivas; He, Xiaozheng; Li, Yongfu; Zhu, Senlai

2015-01-01

To improve the effectiveness and robustness of fatigue driving recognition, a self-adaptive dynamic recognition model is proposed that incorporates information from multiple sources and involves two sequential levels of fusion, constructed at the feature level and the decision level. Compared with existing models, the proposed model introduces a dynamic basic probability assignment (BPA) to the decision-level fusion such that the weight of each feature source can change dynamically with the real-time fatigue feature measurements. Further, the proposed model can combine the fatigue state at the previous time step in the decision-level fusion to improve the robustness of the fatigue driving recognition. An improved correction strategy of the BPA is also proposed to accommodate the decision conflict caused by external disturbances. Results from field experiments demonstrate that the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed model are better than those of models based on a single fatigue feature and/or single-source information fusion, especially when the most effective fatigue features are used in the proposed model. PMID:26393615

A multivariate mixed model system for wood specific gravity and moisture content of planted loblolly pine stands in the southern United States

Treesearch

Finto Antony; Laurence R. Schimleck; Alex Clark; Richard F. Daniels

2012-01-01

Specific gravity (SG) and moisture content (MC) both have a strong influence on the quantity and quality of wood fiber. We proposed a multivariate mixed model system to model the two properties simultaneously. Disk SG and MC at different height levels were measured from 3 trees in 135 stands across the natural range of loblolly pine and the stand level values were used...

The impact of state-level nutrition-education program funding on BMI: evidence from the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

PubMed

McGeary, Kerry Anne

2013-04-01

Currently, there is insufficient evidence regarding which policies will improve nutrition, reduce BMI levels and the prevalence of obesity and overweight nationwide. This preliminary study investigates the impact of a nutrition-education policy relative to price policy as a means to reduce BMI in the United States (US). Model estimations use pooled cross-sectional data at the individual-level from the Centers for Disease Control's (CDC), Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), state-level food prices from the American Chamber of Commerce Research Association (ACCRA) and funding for state-specific nutrition-education programs from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) from 1992 to 2006. The total number of observations for the study is 2,249,713 over 15 years. During this period, federal funding for state-specific nutrition-education programs rose from approximately $660 thousand for seven states to nearly $248 million for all fifty-two states. In 2011, federal funding for nutrition-education programs reached $375 million. After controlling for state-fixed effects, year effects and state specific linear and quadratic time trends, we find that nutrition education spending has the intended effect on BMI, obese and overweight in aggregate. However, we find heterogeneity as individuals from certain, but not all, income and education levels respond to nutrition-education funding. The results regarding nutrition-education programs suggest that large scale funding of nutrition-education programs may improve BMI levels and reduce obesity and overweight. However, more study is required to determine if these funds are able make the requisite dietary improvements that may ultimately improve BMI for individuals from low income and education-levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steady-State Plant Model to Predict Hydroden Levels in Power Plant Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glatzmaier, Greg C.; Cable, Robert; Newmarker, Marc

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Acciona Energy North America developed a full-plant steady-state computational model that estimates levels of hydrogen in parabolic trough power plant components. The model estimated dissolved hydrogen concentrations in the circulating heat transfer fluid (HTF), and corresponding partial pressures within each component. Additionally for collector field receivers, the model estimated hydrogen pressure in the receiver annuli. The model was developed to estimate long-term equilibrium hydrogen levels in power plant components, and to predict the benefit of hydrogen mitigation strategies for commercial power plants. Specifically, the model predicted reductions in hydrogen levels within the circulatingmore » HTF that result from purging hydrogen from the power plant expansion tanks at a specified target rate. Our model predicted hydrogen partial pressures from 8.3 mbar to 9.6 mbar in the power plant components when no mitigation treatment was employed at the expansion tanks. Hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli were 8.3 to 8.4 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.001 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.001 mbar to 0.02 mbar. When hydrogen partial pressure was reduced to 0.3 mbar in the expansion tanks, hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli fell to a range of 0.25 mbar to 0.28 mbar. Our results show that controlling hydrogen partial pressure in the expansion tanks allows us to reduce and maintain hydrogen pressures in the receiver annuli to any practical level.« less

State machine analysis of sensor data from dynamic processes

DOEpatents

Cook, William R.; Brabson, John M.; Deland, Sharon M.

2003-12-23

A state machine model analyzes sensor data from dynamic processes at a facility to identify the actual processes that were performed at the facility during a period of interest for the purpose of remote facility inspection. An inspector can further input the expected operations into the state machine model and compare the expected, or declared, processes to the actual processes to identify undeclared processes at the facility. The state machine analysis enables the generation of knowledge about the state of the facility at all levels, from location of physical objects to complex operational concepts. Therefore, the state machine method and apparatus may benefit any agency or business with sensored facilities that stores or manipulates expensive, dangerous, or controlled materials or information.

Study of nuclear structure of 76-86Sr isotopes in the pn interacting boson model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saxena, M.; Gupta, J. B.; Mandal, S.

2015-08-01

The proton neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2) has been used to make a systematic study of Strontium isotopes in this mass region of A ˜ 80 with 38 ≤slant N ≤slant 48 and Z = 38. The three-term Talmi-Otsuka general Hamiltonian in the framework of the neutron proton version of the Interaction boson model was used to perform the calculations. The yrast levels energy are reproduced. The beta and gamma band energy levels also matched well. The reduced transition probabilities were also calculated and were found to be in agreement with the experimental values. In addition, g-factor for the {2}1+ state was evaluated. Possible candidates for mixed symmetry states were also predicted for several nuclei in this isotopic chain.

Exploring the Relationship between State Financial Aid Policy and Postsecondary Enrollment Choices: A Focus on Income and Race Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Jiyun

2012-01-01

This study explores the relationship between state financial aid policies and postsecondary enrollment for high school graduates (or equivalent diploma holders). Utilizing an event history modeling for a nationally representative sample from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/2000) in addition to state-level policy variables, this…

A Study of Organization and Governance of Alabama State Library Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Public Administration Service, Washington, DC.

In order to provide the citizens of Alabama with the best possible library service for a given level of funding, this study recommends a model for the organization and funding of multi-type library cooperation in the state, based on a review of past developments and current conditions, together with proposed changes in state library legislation…

A social preference valuations set for EQ-5D health states in Flanders, Belgium.

PubMed

Cleemput, Irina

2010-04-01

This study aimed at deriving a preference valuation set for EQ-5D health states from the general Flemish public in Belgium. A EuroQol valuation instrument with 16 health states to be valued on a visual analogue scale was sent to a random sample of 2,754 adults. The initial response rate was 35%. Eventually, 548 (20%) respondents provided useable valuations for modeling. Valuations for 245 health states were modeled using a random effects model. The selection of the model was based on two criteria: health state valuations must be consistent, and the difference with the directly observed valuations must be small. A model including a value decrement if any health dimension of the EQ-5D is on the worst level was selected to construct the social health state valuation set. A comparison with health state valuations from other countries showed similarities, especially with those from New Zealand. The use of a single preference valuation set across different health economic evaluations within a country is highly preferable to increase their usability for policy makers. This study contributes to the standardization of outcome measurement in economic evaluations in Belgium.

Integrating Forage, Wildlife, Water, and Fish Projections with Timber Projections at the Regional Level: A Case Study in Southern United States

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Curtis H. Flather; Patricia A. Flebbe; Thomas W. Hoekstra; Stan J. Ursic

1990-01-01

The impact of timber management and land-use change on forage production, turkey and deer abundance, red-cockaded woodpecker colonies, water yield, and trout abundance was projected as part of a policy study focusing on the southern United States. The multiresource modeling framework used in this study linked extant timber management and land-area policy models with...

Mexican Influence on Contemporary Art and Architecture of the United States: A Model Lesson for Cross Cultural Understanding at the Secondary Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finer, Neal

In this model lesson, secondary students test the hypothesis that Mexican achievements have widely influenced art and architecture in the United States as a result of the cultural flow and exchange between the two nations. The lesson is designed to be presented in two to three class periods. To determine the validity of the hypothesis, students…

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Treesearch

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Simulated response of conterminous United States ecosystems to climate change at different levels of fire suppression, CO2 emission rate, and growth response to CO2

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson; Raymond Drapek

2008-01-01

A modeling experiment was designed to investigate the impact of fire management, CO2 emission rate, and the growth response to CO2 on the response of ecosystems in the conterminous United States to climate scenarios produced by three different general circulation models (GCMs) as simulated by the MCl Dynamic General...

Integrating fine-scale soil data into species distribution models: preparing Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) data from multiple counties

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Steve N. Matthews

2013-01-01

Fine-scale soil (SSURGO) data were processed at the county level for 37 states within the eastern United States, initially for use as predictor variables in a species distribution model called DISTRIB II. Values from county polygon files converted into a continuous 30-m raster grid were aggregated to 4-km cells and integrated with other environmental and site condition...

Atypical biological motion kinematics are represented by complementary lower-level and top-down processes during imitation learning.

PubMed

Hayes, Spencer J; Dutoy, Chris A; Elliott, Digby; Gowen, Emma; Bennett, Simon J

2016-01-01

Learning a novel movement requires a new set of kinematics to be represented by the sensorimotor system. This is often accomplished through imitation learning where lower-level sensorimotor processes are suggested to represent the biological motion kinematics associated with an observed movement. Top-down factors have the potential to influence this process based on the social context, attention and salience, and the goal of the movement. In order to further examine the potential interaction between lower-level and top-down processes in imitation learning, the aim of this study was to systematically control the mediating effects during an imitation of biological motion protocol. In this protocol, we used non-human agent models that displayed different novel atypical biological motion kinematics, as well as a control model that displayed constant velocity. Importantly the three models had the same movement amplitude and movement time. Also, the motion kinematics were displayed in the presence, or absence, of end-state-targets. Kinematic analyses showed atypical biological motion kinematics were imitated, and that this performance was different from the constant velocity control condition. Although the imitation of atypical biological motion kinematics was not modulated by the end-state-targets, movement time was more accurate in the absence, compared to the presence, of an end-state-target. The fact that end-state targets modulated movement time accuracy, but not biological motion kinematics, indicates imitation learning involves top-down attentional, and lower-level sensorimotor systems, which operate as complementary processes mediated by the environmental context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Model-Based Therapeutic Correction of Hypothalamic-Pituitary-Adrenal Axis Dysfunction

PubMed Central

Ben-Zvi, Amos; Vernon, Suzanne D.; Broderick, Gordon

2009-01-01

The hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis is a major system maintaining body homeostasis by regulating the neuroendocrine and sympathetic nervous systems as well modulating immune function. Recent work has shown that the complex dynamics of this system accommodate several stable steady states, one of which corresponds to the hypocortisol state observed in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS). At present these dynamics are not formally considered in the development of treatment strategies. Here we use model-based predictive control (MPC) methodology to estimate robust treatment courses for displacing the HPA axis from an abnormal hypocortisol steady state back to a healthy cortisol level. This approach was applied to a recent model of HPA axis dynamics incorporating glucocorticoid receptor kinetics. A candidate treatment that displays robust properties in the face of significant biological variability and measurement uncertainty requires that cortisol be further suppressed for a short period until adrenocorticotropic hormone levels exceed 30% of baseline. Treatment may then be discontinued, and the HPA axis will naturally progress to a stable attractor defined by normal hormone levels. Suppression of biologically available cortisol may be achieved through the use of binding proteins such as CBG and certain metabolizing enzymes, thus offering possible avenues for deployment in a clinical setting. Treatment strategies can therefore be designed that maximally exploit system dynamics to provide a robust response to treatment and ensure a positive outcome over a wide range of conditions. Perhaps most importantly, a treatment course involving further reduction in cortisol, even transient, is quite counterintuitive and challenges the conventional strategy of supplementing cortisol levels, an approach based on steady-state reasoning. PMID:19165314

Estimates of state-level health-care expenditures associated with disability.

PubMed

Anderson, Wayne L; Armour, Brian S; Finkelstein, Eric A; Wiener, Joshua M

2010-01-01

We estimated state-level disability-associated health-care expenditures (DAHE) for the U.S. adult population. We used a two-part model to estimate DAHE for the noninstitutionalized U.S. civilian adult population using data from the 2002-2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey and state-level data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Administrative data for people in institutions were added to generate estimates for the total adult noninstitutionalized population. Individual-level data on total health-care expenditures along with demographic, socioeconomic, geographic, and payer characteristics were used in the models. The DAHE for all U.S. adults totaled $397.8 billion in 2006, with state expenditures ranging from $598 million in Wyoming to $40.1 billion in New York. Of the national total, the DAHE were $118.9 billion for the Medicare population, $161.1 billion for Medicaid recipients, and $117.8 billion for the privately insured and uninsured populations. For the total U.S. adult population, 26.7% of health-care expenditures were associated with disability, with proportions by state ranging from 16.9% in Hawaii to 32.8% in New York. This proportion varied greatly by payer, with 38.1% for Medicare expenditures, 68.7% for Medicaid expenditures, and 12.5% for nonpublic health-care expenditures associated with disability. DAHE vary greatly by state and are borne largely by the public sector, and particularly by Medicaid. Policy makers need to consider initiatives that will help reduce the prevalence of disabilities and disability-related health disparities, as well as improve the lives of people with disabilities.

Entanglement Evolution of Jaynes-Cummings Model in Resonance Case and Non-resonance Case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jing; Chen, Xi; Shan, Chuan-Jia

2018-06-01

We investigate the entanglement evolution of a two-level atom and a quantized single model electromagnetic filed in the resonance and non-resonance cases. The effects of the initial state, detuning degree, photon number on the entanglement are shown in detail. The results show that the atom-cavity entanglement state appears with periodicity. The increasing of the photon number can make the period of quantum entanglement be shorter. In the non-resonant case, if we choose the suitable initial state the entanglement of atom-cavity can be 1.0

Systematics of g factors of 2{sub 1}{sup +} states in even-even nuclei from Gd to Pt: A microscopic description by the projected shell model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bian, Bao-An; Institute of Low Energy Nuclear Physics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875; Di, Yao-Min

2007-01-15

The systematics of g factor of the first excited 2{sup +} state vs neutron number N is studied by the projected shell model. The study covers the even-even nuclei of all isotopic chains from Gd to Pt. g factors are calculated by using the many-body wave functions that well reproduce the energy levels and B(E2)s of the ground-state bands. For Gd to W isotopes the characteristic feature of the g factor data along an isotopic chain is described by the present model. Deficiency of the model in the g factor description for the heavier Os and Pt isotopes is discussed.

A Multiyear Model of Influenza Vaccination in the United States.

PubMed

Kamis, Arnold; Zhang, Yuji; Kamis, Tamara

2017-07-28

Vaccinating adults against influenza remains a challenge in the United States. Using data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we present a model for predicting who receives influenza vaccination in the United States between 2012 and 2014, inclusive. The logistic regression model contains nine predictors: age, pneumococcal vaccination, time since last checkup, highest education level attained, employment, health care coverage, number of personal doctors, smoker status, and annual household income. The model, which classifies correctly 67 percent of the data in 2013, is consistent with models tested on the 2012 and 2014 datasets. Thus, we have a multiyear model to explain and predict influenza vaccination in the United States. The results indicate room for improvement in vaccination rates. We discuss how cognitive biases may underlie reluctance to obtain vaccination. We argue that targeted communications addressing cognitive biases could be useful for effective framing of vaccination messages, thus increasing the vaccination rate. Finally, we discuss limitations of the current study and questions for future research.

Modeling T-cell activation using gene expression profiling and state-space models.

PubMed

Rangel, Claudia; Angus, John; Ghahramani, Zoubin; Lioumi, Maria; Sotheran, Elizabeth; Gaiba, Alessia; Wild, David L; Falciani, Francesco

2004-06-12

We have used state-space models to reverse engineer transcriptional networks from highly replicated gene expression profiling time series data obtained from a well-established model of T-cell activation. State space models are a class of dynamic Bayesian networks that assume that the observed measurements depend on some hidden state variables that evolve according to Markovian dynamics. These hidden variables can capture effects that cannot be measured in a gene expression profiling experiment, e.g. genes that have not been included in the microarray, levels of regulatory proteins, the effects of messenger RNA and protein degradation, etc. Bootstrap confidence intervals are developed for parameters representing 'gene-gene' interactions over time. Our models represent the dynamics of T-cell activation and provide a methodology for the development of rational and experimentally testable hypotheses. Supplementary data and Matlab computer source code will be made available on the web at the URL given below. http://public.kgi.edu/~wild/LDS/index.htm

Social aggregation in pea aphids: experiment and random walk modeling.

PubMed

Nilsen, Christa; Paige, John; Warner, Olivia; Mayhew, Benjamin; Sutley, Ryan; Lam, Matthew; Bernoff, Andrew J; Topaz, Chad M

2013-01-01

From bird flocks to fish schools and ungulate herds to insect swarms, social biological aggregations are found across the natural world. An ongoing challenge in the mathematical modeling of aggregations is to strengthen the connection between models and biological data by quantifying the rules that individuals follow. We model aggregation of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Specifically, we conduct experiments to track the motion of aphids walking in a featureless circular arena in order to deduce individual-level rules. We observe that each aphid transitions stochastically between a moving and a stationary state. Moving aphids follow a correlated random walk. The probabilities of motion state transitions, as well as the random walk parameters, depend strongly on distance to an aphid's nearest neighbor. For large nearest neighbor distances, when an aphid is essentially isolated, its motion is ballistic with aphids moving faster, turning less, and being less likely to stop. In contrast, for short nearest neighbor distances, aphids move more slowly, turn more, and are more likely to become stationary; this behavior constitutes an aggregation mechanism. From the experimental data, we estimate the state transition probabilities and correlated random walk parameters as a function of nearest neighbor distance. With the individual-level model established, we assess whether it reproduces the macroscopic patterns of movement at the group level. To do so, we consider three distributions, namely distance to nearest neighbor, angle to nearest neighbor, and percentage of population moving at any given time. For each of these three distributions, we compare our experimental data to the output of numerical simulations of our nearest neighbor model, and of a control model in which aphids do not interact socially. Our stochastic, social nearest neighbor model reproduces salient features of the experimental data that are not captured by the control.

Dynamic evolution of double Λ five-level atom interacting with one-mode electromagnetic cavity field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Wahab, N. H.; Salah, Ahmed

2017-12-01

In this paper, the model describing a double Λ five-level atom interacting with a single mode electromagnetic cavity field in the (off) non-resonate case is studied. We obtained the constants of motion for the considered model. Also, the state vector of the wave function is given by using the Schrödinger equation when the atom is initially prepared in its excited state. The dynamical evolutions for the collapse revivals, the antibunching of photons and the field squeezing phenomena are investigated when the field is considered in a coherent state. The influence of detuning parameters on these phenomena is investigated. We noticed that the atom-field properties are influenced by changing the detuning parameters. The investigation of these aspects by numerical simulations is carried out using the Quantum Toolbox in Python (QuTip).

Modeling and optimization of actively Q-switched Nd-doped quasi-three-level laser

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Renpeng; Yu, Xin; Li, Xudong; Chen, Deying; Gao, Jing

2013-09-01

The energy transfer upconversion and the ground state absorption are considered in solving the rate equations for an active Q-switched quasi-three-level laser. The dependence of output pulse characters on the laser parameters is investigated by solving the rate equations. The influence of the energy transfer upconversion on the pulsed laser performance is illustrated and discussed. By this model, the optimal parameters could be achieved for arbitrary quasi-three-level Q-switched lasers. An acousto-optical Q-switched Nd:YAG 946 nm laser is constructed and the reliability of the theoretical model is demonstrated.

Modeling of exposure to carbon monoxide in fires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cagliostro, D. E.

1980-01-01

A mathematical model is developed to predict carboxyhemoglobin concentrations in regions of the body for short exposures to carbon monoxide levels expected during escape from aircraft fires. The model includes the respiratory and circulatory dynamics of absorption and distribution of carbon monoxide and carboxyhemoglobin. Predictions of carboxyhemoglobin concentrations are compared to experimental values obtained for human exposures to constant high carbon monoxide levels. Predictions are within 20% of experimental values. For short exposure times, transient concentration effects are predicted. The effect of stress is studied and found to increase carboxyhemoglobin levels substantially compared to a rest state.

A Study of the Diffusion, Electrochemical Mobility and Removal of Dissolved Copper in a Saturated Porous Medium.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

aqueous solutions : use of activity coefficients in transition-state models: Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, v...native state at 25°C at any activity level below 10+46.0 in an aqueous solution . Because such an activity level is impossible, sodium cannot be reduced...stoichiometric coefficients . It is necessary to calculqte the activity coefficients of dissolved copper in the test solutions in order to render an

Restructuring consciousness –the psychedelic state in light of integrated information theory

PubMed Central

Gallimore, Andrew R.

2015-01-01

The psychological state elicited by the classic psychedelics drugs, such as LSD and psilocybin, is one of the most fascinating and yet least understood states of consciousness. However, with the advent of modern functional neuroimaging techniques, the effect of these drugs on neural activity is now being revealed, although many of the varied phenomenological features of the psychedelic state remain challenging to explain. Integrated information theory (IIT) is one of the foremost contemporary theories of consciousness, providing a mathematical formalization of both the quantity and quality of conscious experience. This theory can be applied to all known states of consciousness, including the psychedelic state. Using the results of functional neuroimaging data on the psychedelic state, the effects of psychedelic drugs on both the level and structure of consciousness can be explained in terms of the conceptual framework of IIT. This new IIT-based model of the psychedelic state provides an explanation for many of its phenomenological features, including unconstrained cognition, alterations in the structure and meaning of concepts and a sense of expanded awareness. This model also suggests that whilst cognitive flexibility, creativity, and imagination are enhanced during the psychedelic state, this occurs at the expense of cause-effect information, as well as degrading the brain's ability to organize, categorize, and differentiate the constituents of conscious experience. Furthermore, the model generates specific predictions that can be tested using a combination of functional imaging techniques, as has been applied to the study of levels of consciousness during anesthesia and following brain injury. PMID:26124719

Theory of quantized systems: formal basis for DEVS/HLA distributed simulation environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeigler, Bernard P.; Lee, J. S.

1998-08-01

In the context of a DARPA ASTT project, we are developing an HLA-compliant distributed simulation environment based on the DEVS formalism. This environment will provide a user- friendly, high-level tool-set for developing interoperable discrete and continuous simulation models. One application is the study of contract-based predictive filtering. This paper presents a new approach to predictive filtering based on a process called 'quantization' to reduce state update transmission. Quantization, which generates state updates only at quantum level crossings, abstracts a sender model into a DEVS representation. This affords an alternative, efficient approach to embedding continuous models within distributed discrete event simulations. Applications of quantization to message traffic reduction are discussed. The theory has been validated by DEVSJAVA simulations of test cases. It will be subject to further test in actual distributed simulations using the DEVS/HLA modeling and simulation environment.

Therapist Personal Agency: A Model for Examining the Training Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mutchler, Matthew; Anderson, Stephen

2010-01-01

This study reviews the creation and testing of a model of Therapist Personal Agency during MFT training. A model including self-efficacy, trainee developmental level, supervisor working alliance, family of origin relationships, and psychological states was supported by data collected from a national sample of MFT students. The model supported by…

Geographic and Individual Differences in Healthcare Access for U.S. Transgender Adults: A Multilevel Analysis

PubMed Central

Murchison, Gabriel R.; Clark, Kirsty; Pachankis, John E.; Reisner, Sari L.

2016-01-01

Abstract Purpose: To identify geographic and individual-level factors associated with healthcare access among transgender people in the United States. Methods: Multilevel analyses were conducted to investigate lifetime healthcare refusal using national data from 5831 U.S. transgender adults. Hierarchical generalized linear models examined associations between individual (age, gender, race, income, insurance, and healthcare avoidance) and state-level factors (percent voting Republican, percent same-sex couple households, income inequality, and transgender protective laws) and lifetime refusal of care. Results: Results show that individual-level factors (being older; trans feminine; Native American, multiracial, or other racial/ethnic minority; having low income; and avoiding care due to discrimination) are positively associated with care refusal (all P-values <0.05). Adjusting for individual-level factors, variation was observed across U.S. states, with a greater proportion of states in the Southern and Western United States with transgender residents at increased odds of experiencing care refusal, relative to other regions of the United States. When adjusting for state-level factors, the percentage of the state population voting Republican was positively associated with care refusal among the transgender adults sampled (P < 0.01). Conclusion: Transgender adults surveyed reported differential access to healthcare by geographic region. Identifying geographic and individual-level factors associated with healthcare barriers allows for the development of targeted educational and policy interventions to improve healthcare access for transgender people most in need of services. PMID:27636030

State residence restrictions and forcible rape rates: a multistate quasi-experimental analysis of UCR data.

PubMed

Socia, Kelly M

2015-04-01

This study examines whether the presence of state residence restrictions resulted in changes in statewide rates of forcible rape. It builds on the limited geographic coverage of prior studies by including state-level Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data across 19 years for 49 states and the District of Columbia. It uses a quasi-experimental research method based on a longitudinal fixed-effects panel model design, which can help control for relatively static differences between states. Results indicate that when a state residence restriction was present, regardless of how it was measured, rates of UCR forcible rape were higher in the state than when the policy was not present. This suggests that residence restrictions, at least at the state level, are not useful as an overall crime prevention measure, but may be useful for increasing detection or reporting levels of such crimes. However, results also suggest that the size of the increase varied by whether the policy only applied to offenders with child victims or also included those with adult victims. Implications for research and policy are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Resource Management in Constrained Dynamic Situations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seok, Jinwoo

Resource management is considered in this dissertation for systems with limited resources, possibly combined with other system constraints, in unpredictably dynamic environments. Resources may represent fuel, power, capabilities, energy, and so on. Resource management is important for many practical systems; usually, resources are limited, and their use must be optimized. Furthermore, systems are often constrained, and constraints must be satisfied for safe operation. Simplistic resource management can result in poor use of resources and failure of the system. Furthermore, many real-world situations involve dynamic environments. Many traditional problems are formulated based on the assumptions of given probabilities or perfect knowledge of future events. However, in many cases, the future is completely unknown, and information on or probabilities about future events are not available. In other words, we operate in unpredictably dynamic situations. Thus, a method is needed to handle dynamic situations without knowledge of the future, but few formal methods have been developed to address them. Thus, the goal is to design resource management methods for constrained systems, with limited resources, in unpredictably dynamic environments. To this end, resource management is organized hierarchically into two levels: 1) planning, and 2) control. In the planning level, the set of tasks to be performed is scheduled based on limited resources to maximize resource usage in unpredictably dynamic environments. In the control level, the system controller is designed to follow the schedule by considering all the system constraints for safe and efficient operation. Consequently, this dissertation is mainly divided into two parts: 1) planning level design, based on finite state machines, and 2) control level methods, based on model predictive control. We define a recomposable restricted finite state machine to handle limited resource situations and unpredictably dynamic environments for the planning level. To obtain a policy, dynamic programing is applied, and to obtain a solution, limited breadth-first search is applied to the recomposable restricted finite state machine. A multi-function phased array radar resource management problem and an unmanned aerial vehicle patrolling problem are treated using recomposable restricted finite state machines. Then, we use model predictive control for the control level, because it allows constraint handling and setpoint tracking for the schedule. An aircraft power system management problem is treated that aims to develop an integrated control system for an aircraft gas turbine engine and electrical power system using rate-based model predictive control. Our results indicate that at the planning level, limited breadth-first search for recomposable restricted finite state machines generates good scheduling solutions in limited resource situations and unpredictably dynamic environments. The importance of cooperation in the planning level is also verified. At the control level, a rate-based model predictive controller allows good schedule tracking and safe operations. The importance of considering the system constraints and interactions between the subsystems is indicated. For the best resource management in constrained dynamic situations, the planning level and the control level need to be considered together.

Wind Energy Conversion System Analysis Model (WECSAM) computer program documentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downey, W. T.; Hendrick, P. L.

1982-07-01

Described is a computer-based wind energy conversion system analysis model (WECSAM) developed to predict the technical and economic performance of wind energy conversion systems (WECS). The model is written in CDC FORTRAN V. The version described accesses a data base containing wind resource data, application loads, WECS performance characteristics, utility rates, state taxes, and state subsidies for a six state region (Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and Indiana). The model is designed for analysis at the county level. The computer model includes a technical performance module and an economic evaluation module. The modules can be run separately or together. The model can be run for any single user-selected county within the region or looped automatically through all counties within the region. In addition, the model has a restart capability that allows the user to modify any data-base value written to a scratch file prior to the technical or economic evaluation.

An Introduction to System-Level, Steady-State and Transient Modeling and Optimization of High-Power-Density Thermoelectric Generator Devices Made of Segmented Thermoelectric Elements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crane, D. T.

2011-05-01

High-power-density, segmented, thermoelectric (TE) elements have been intimately integrated into heat exchangers, eliminating many of the loss mechanisms of conventional TE assemblies, including the ceramic electrical isolation layer. Numerical models comprising simultaneously solved, nonlinear, energy balance equations have been created to simulate these novel architectures. Both steady-state and transient models have been created in a MATLAB/Simulink environment. The models predict data from experiments in various configurations and applications over a broad range of temperature, flow, and current conditions for power produced, efficiency, and a variety of other important outputs. Using the validated models, devices and systems are optimized using advanced multiparameter optimization techniques. Devices optimized for particular steady-state operating conditions can then be dynamically simulated in a transient operating model. The transient model can simulate a variety of operating conditions including automotive and truck drive cycles.

Assessing Temporal Effect of Economic Activity on Freight Volumes with Two-Period Cross-Sectional Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes; Chin, Shih-Miao; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2012-01-01

The most comprehensive publicly available freight databases are the Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) and the FHWA s Freight Analysis Framework (FAF). These two sources contain dollar value and weight of freight movements at high geographic levels, such as state or metropolitan areas. Due to the difficulty in obtaining freight data at lower geographies various practitioners and researchers have been suggesting to estimate freight models based on aggregate data. Following these recent practices, a methodology to estimate a nationwide production and attraction models for U.S. domestic trade of goods is presented. To this end, a CFS s data set provided bymore » U.S. Census Bureau and composed of two-nonconsecutive year period (2002 and 2007) of movements of goods between U.S. states for 27 industry sectors was used. The state payroll by industry sector, obtained from the County Business Patterns of the U.S. Census, was the variable used to estimate freight generation models. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the temporal stability and predictability of the proposed aggregate models. The results indicate that the payroll alone explains a significant portion of the freight production and attraction at the state level. However, such simplification in the model process did not result in reasonable predictions of freight for a future year horizon. It is recommended that time-dependent factors (e.g. variables related to changes industry productivity) affecting freight demand should be considered in the modeling process.« less

Public Health and Economic Consequences of Vaccine Hesitancy for Measles in the United States.

PubMed

Lo, Nathan C; Hotez, Peter J

2017-09-01

Routine childhood vaccination is declining in some regions of the United States due to vaccine hesitancy, which risks the resurgence of many infectious diseases with public health and economic consequences. There are ongoing policy debates on the state and national level, including legislation around nonmedical (personal-belief) exemptions for childhood vaccination and possibly a special government commission on vaccine safety, which may affect vaccine coverage. To estimate the number of measles cases in US children and the associated economic costs under scenarios of different levels of vaccine hesitancy, using the case example of measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination and measles. Publicly available data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were used to simulate county-level MMR vaccination coverage in children (age 2-11 years) in the United States. A stochastic mathematical model was adapted for infectious disease transmission that estimated a distribution for outbreak size as it relates to vaccine coverage. Economic costs per measles case were obtained from the literature. The predicted effects of increasing the prevalence of vaccine hesitancy as well as the removal of nonmedical exemptions were estimated. The model was calibrated to annual measles cases in US children over recent years, and the model prediction was validated using an independent data set from England and Wales. Annual measles cases in the United States and the associated public sector costs. A 5% decline in MMR vaccine coverage in the United States would result in an estimated 3-fold increase in measles cases for children aged 2 to 11 years nationally every year, with an additional $2.1 million in public sector costs. The numbers would be substantially higher if unvaccinated infants, adolescents, and adult populations were also considered. There was variation around these estimates due to the stochastic elements of measles importation and sensitivity of some model inputs, although the trend was robust. This analysis predicts that even minor reductions in childhood vaccination, driven by vaccine hesitancy (nonmedical and personal belief exemptions), will have substantial public health and economic consequences. The results support an urgent need to address vaccine hesitancy in policy dialogues at the state and national level, with consideration of removing personal belief exemptions of childhood vaccination.

SunShot 2030 for Photovoltaics (PV): Envisioning a Low-cost PV Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Frew, Bethany A.; Gagnon, Pieter J.

In this report we summarize the implications, impacts, and deployment potential of reaching the SunShot 2030 targets for the electricity system in the contiguous United States. We model 25 scenarios of the U.S. power sector using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The scenarios cover a wide range of sensitivities to capture future uncertainties relating to fuel prices, retirements, renewable energy capital costs, and load growth. We give special attention to the potential for storage costs to also rapidly decline due to its large synergies with low-cost solar. The ReEDS and dGen modelsmore » project utility- and distributed-scale power sector evolution, respectively, for the United States. Both models have been designed with special emphasis on capturing the unique traits of renewable energy, including variability and grid integration requirements. Across the suite of scenarios modeled, we find that reaching the SunShot 2030 target has the potential to lead to significant capacity additions of PV in the United States. By 2050, PV penetration levels are projected to reach 28-46 percent of total generation. If storage also sees significant reductions in cost, then the 2050 solar penetration levels could reach 41-64 percent. PV deployment is projected to occur in all of the lower 48 states, though the specific deployment level is scenario dependent. The growth in PV is projected to be dominated by utility-scale systems, but the actual mix between utility and distributed systems could ultimately vary depending on how policies, system costs, and rate structures evolve.« less

Evaluation of the groundwater-flow model for the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Kentucky, updated to conditions in September 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Unthank, Michael D.

2013-01-01

The Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Ky., is an important water resource for the cities of Carrollton and Ghent, as well as for several industries in the area. The groundwater of the aquifer is the primary source of drinking water in the region and a highly valued natural resource that attracts various water-dependent industries because of its quantity and quality. This report evaluates the performance of a numerical model of the groundwater-flow system in the Ohio River alluvial aquifer near Carrollton, Ky., published by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1999. The original model simulated conditions in November 1995 and was updated to simulate groundwater conditions estimated for September 2010. The files from the calibrated steady-state model of November 1995 conditions were imported into MODFLOW-2005 to update the model to conditions in September 2010. The model input files modified as part of this update were the well and recharge files. The design of the updated model and other input files are the same as the original model. The ability of the updated model to match hydrologic conditions for September 2010 was evaluated by comparing water levels measured in wells to those computed by the model. Water-level measurements were available for 48 wells in September 2010. Overall, the updated model underestimated the water levels at 36 of the 48 measured wells. The average difference between measured water levels and model-computed water levels was 3.4 feet and the maximum difference was 10.9 feet. The root-mean-square error of the simulation was 4.45 for all 48 measured water levels. The updated steady-state model could be improved by introducing more accurate and site-specific estimates of selected field parameters, refined model geometry, and additional numerical methods. Collection of field data to better estimate hydraulic parameters, together with continued review of available data and information from area well operators, could provide the model with revised estimates of conductance values for the riverbed and valley wall, hydraulic conductivities for the model layer, and target water levels for future simulations. Additional model layers, a redesigned model grid, and revised boundary conditions could provide a better framework for more accurate simulations. Additional numerical methods would identify possible parameter estimates and determine parameter sensitivities.

Problem of two-level hierarchical minimax program control the final state of regional social and economic system in the presence of risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shorikov, A. F., E-mail: afshorikov@mail.ru

This article discusses a discrete-time dynamical system consisting of a set a controllable objects (region and forming it municipalities). The dynamics each of these is described by the corresponding vector nonlinear discrete-time recurrent vector equations and its control system consist from two levels: basic (control level I) that is dominating and subordinate level (control level II). Both levels have different criterions of functioning and united a priori by determined informational and control connections defined in advance. In this paper we study the problem of optimization of guaranteed result for program control by the final state of regional social and economicmore » system in the presence of risks. For this problem we proposed in this work an economical and mathematical model of two-level hierarchical minimax program control the final state of regional social and economic system in the presence of risks and the general scheme for its solving.« less

Modeling storm and sea level rise impacts on marsh transgression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carr, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Kirwan, M. L.

2016-12-01

Coastal salt marsh systems provide critical ecosystem services, including key habitat and coastal protection. Both lateral extent, and vertical stability of salt marshes to sea level rise have been shown to be functions of both biotic, and abiotic drivers and feedbacks. As a result, the ecogeomorphic evolution of the system can exhibit strong non-linearities, discontinuities and thresholds. We developed a two-dimensional transect model to explore controls on marsh lateral extent, vertical stability and the potential for marsh transgression inland and upland. Salt marsh and upland regions in the model are discretized in 1 m increments with inundation frequency determined by the elevation of the individual cells, organogenic soil formation and mineral deposition rates, and the history of stochastic water levels. The transect extends from an idealized back barrier bay across the salt marsh platform and into the upland forest and is forced with auto and cross correlated synthetic stochastic wind speed, wind direction and water levels. The model incorporates key feedbacks between fetch, wave growth and subsequent lateral erosion rates and sediment supply to the marsh platform. Deposition of mineral sediment from the bay and/or internal ponds onto the marsh platform cells is dependent both on the inundation frequency and distance from a marsh edge. For each element along the transect, a Markov chain successional model was implemented that considers six distinct states, grass/saltmarsh, seedling, sapling, tree, dead standing tree, and bare. A non-static transition probability matrix, dependent on both inundation of the element and the prior vegetation state, was used in order to allow for feedbacks, both positive and negative, among different vegetation states and environmental drivers. The model was used to examine the qualitative behavior of the coupled systems under varied rates of sea level rise, external sediment supply, wind and storm statistics, tidal range, upland slope, and initial bay width. Interestingly, water level statistics had strong controls on rates of lateral marsh erosion, ponding and upland marsh migration with the landward marsh edge controlled by upland slope and the timing and frequency of extreme water events.

Far-field tsunami of 2017 Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec, Mexico earthquake recorded by Chilean tide gauge network: Implications for tsunami warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González-Carrasco, J. F.; Benavente, R. F.; Zelaya, C.; Núñez, C.; Gonzalez, G.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Mw 8.1, Tehuantepec earthquake generated a moderated tsunami, which was registered in near-field tide gauges network activating a tsunami threat state for Mexico issued by PTWC. In the case of Chile, the forecast of tsunami waves indicate amplitudes less than 0.3 meters above the tide level, advising an informative state of threat, without activation of evacuation procedures. Nevertheless, during sea level monitoring of network we detect wave amplitudes (> 0.3 m) indicating a possible change of threat state. Finally, NTWS maintains informative level of threat based on mathematical filtering analysis of sea level records. After 2010 Mw 8.8, Maule earthquake, the Chilean National Tsunami Warning System (NTWS) has increased its observational capabilities to improve early response. Most important operational efforts have focused on strengthening tide gauge network for national area of responsibility. Furthermore, technological initiatives as Integrated Tsunami Prediction and Warning System (SIPAT) has segmented the area of responsibility in blocks to focus early warning and evacuation procedures on most affected coastal areas, while maintaining an informative state for distant areas of near-field earthquake. In the case of far-field events, NTWS follow the recommendations proposed by Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC), including a comprehensive monitoring of sea level records, such as tide gauges and DART (Deep-Ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) buoys, to evaluate the state of tsunami threat in the area of responsibility. The main objective of this work is to analyze the first-order physical processes involved in the far-field propagation and coastal impact of tsunami, including implications for decision-making of NTWS. To explore our main question, we construct a finite-fault model of the 2017, Mw 8.1 Tehuantepec earthquake. We employ the rupture model to simulate a transoceanic tsunami modeled by Neowave2D. We generate synthetic time series at tide gauge stations and compare them with recorded sea level data, to dismiss meteorological processes, such as storms and surges. Resonance analysis is performed by wavelet technique.

Linguistic Summarization of Video for Fall Detection Using Voxel Person and Fuzzy Logic

PubMed Central

Anderson, Derek; Luke, Robert H.; Keller, James M.; Skubic, Marjorie; Rantz, Marilyn; Aud, Myra

2009-01-01

In this paper, we present a method for recognizing human activity from linguistic summarizations of temporal fuzzy inference curves representing the states of a three-dimensional object called voxel person. A hierarchy of fuzzy logic is used, where the output from each level is summarized and fed into the next level. We present a two level model for fall detection. The first level infers the states of the person at each image. The second level operates on linguistic summarizations of voxel person’s states and inference regarding activity is performed. The rules used for fall detection were designed under the supervision of nurses to ensure that they reflect the manner in which elders perform these activities. The proposed framework is extremely flexible. Rules can be modified, added, or removed, allowing for per-resident customization based on knowledge about their cognitive and physical ability. PMID:20046216

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-01-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.

Rigorously modeling self-stabilizing fault-tolerant circuits: An ultra-robust clocking scheme for systems-on-chip.

PubMed

Dolev, Danny; Függer, Matthias; Posch, Markus; Schmid, Ulrich; Steininger, Andreas; Lenzen, Christoph

2014-06-01

We present the first implementation of a distributed clock generation scheme for Systems-on-Chip that recovers from an unbounded number of arbitrary transient faults despite a large number of arbitrary permanent faults. We devise self-stabilizing hardware building blocks and a hybrid synchronous/asynchronous state machine enabling metastability-free transitions of the algorithm's states. We provide a comprehensive modeling approach that permits to prove, given correctness of the constructed low-level building blocks, the high-level properties of the synchronization algorithm (which have been established in a more abstract model). We believe this approach to be of interest in its own right, since this is the first technique permitting to mathematically verify, at manageable complexity, high-level properties of a fault-prone system in terms of its very basic components. We evaluate a prototype implementation, which has been designed in VHDL, using the Petrify tool in conjunction with some extensions, and synthesized for an Altera Cyclone FPGA.

Rigorously modeling self-stabilizing fault-tolerant circuits: An ultra-robust clocking scheme for systems-on-chip☆

PubMed Central

Dolev, Danny; Függer, Matthias; Posch, Markus; Schmid, Ulrich; Steininger, Andreas; Lenzen, Christoph

2014-01-01

We present the first implementation of a distributed clock generation scheme for Systems-on-Chip that recovers from an unbounded number of arbitrary transient faults despite a large number of arbitrary permanent faults. We devise self-stabilizing hardware building blocks and a hybrid synchronous/asynchronous state machine enabling metastability-free transitions of the algorithm's states. We provide a comprehensive modeling approach that permits to prove, given correctness of the constructed low-level building blocks, the high-level properties of the synchronization algorithm (which have been established in a more abstract model). We believe this approach to be of interest in its own right, since this is the first technique permitting to mathematically verify, at manageable complexity, high-level properties of a fault-prone system in terms of its very basic components. We evaluate a prototype implementation, which has been designed in VHDL, using the Petrify tool in conjunction with some extensions, and synthesized for an Altera Cyclone FPGA. PMID:26516290

High-spin level structure and Ground-state phase transition in the odd-mass 103-109Rh isotopes in the framework of exactly solvable sdg interacting boson-fermion model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghapanvari, M.; Ghorashi, A. H.; Ranjbar, Z.; Jafarizadeh, M. A.

2018-03-01

In this article, the negative-parity states in the odd-mass 103 - 109Rh isotopes in terms of the sd and sdg interacting-boson fermion models were studied. The transitional interacting boson-fermion model Hamiltonians in sd and sdg-IBFM versions based on affine SU (1 , 1) Lie Algebra were employed to describe the evolution from the spherical to deformed gamma unstable shapes along with the chain of Rh isotopes. In this method, sdg-IBFM Hamiltonian, which is a three level pairing Hamiltonian was determined easily via the exactly solvable method. Some observables of the shape phase transitions such as energy levels, the two neutron separation energies, signature splitting of the γ-vibrational band, the α-decay and double β--decay energies were calculated and examined for these isotopes. The present calculation correctly reproduces the spherical to gamma-soft phase transition in the Rh isotopes. Some comparisons were made with sd-IBFM.

The increasing importance of small-scale forestry: evidence from family forest ownership patterns in the United States

Treesearch

Y. Zhang; X. Liao; B.J. Butler; J. Schelhas

2009-01-01

The state-level distribution of the size of family forest holdings in the contiguous United States was examined using data collected by the USDA Forest Service in 1993 and 2003. Regressions models were used to analyze the factors influencing the mean size and structural variation among states and between the two periods. Population density, percent of the population at...

State-to-state modeling of non-equilibrium air nozzle flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagnibeda, E.; Papina, K.; Kunova, O.

2018-05-01

One-dimensional non-equilibrium air flows in nozzles are studied on the basis of the state-to-state description of vibrational-chemical kinetics. Five-component mixture N2/O2/NO/N/O is considered taking into account Zeldovich exchange reactions of NO formation, dissociation, recombination and vibrational energy transitions. The equations for vibrational and chem-ical kinetics in a flow are coupled to the conservation equations of momentum and total energy and solved numerically for different conditions in a nozzle throat. The vibrational distributions of nitrogen and oxygen molecules, number densities of species as well as the gas temperature and flow velocity along a nozzle axis are analysed using the detailed state-to-state flow description and in the frame of the simplified one-temperature thermal equilibrium kinetic model. The comparison of the results showed the influence of non-equilibrium kinetics on macroscopic nozzle flow parameters. In the state-to-state approach, non-Boltzmann vibrational dis-tributions of N2 and O2 molecules with a plateau part at intermediate levels are found. The results are found with the use of the complete and simplified schemes of reactions and the impact of exchange reactions, dissociation and recombination on variation of vibrational level populations, mixture composition, gas velocity and temperature along a nozzle axis is shown.

New analytical model for the ozone electronic ground state potential surface and accurate ab initio vibrational predictions at high energy range.

PubMed

Tyuterev, Vladimir G; Kochanov, Roman V; Tashkun, Sergey A; Holka, Filip; Szalay, Péter G

2013-10-07

An accurate description of the complicated shape of the potential energy surface (PES) and that of the highly excited vibration states is of crucial importance for various unsolved issues in the spectroscopy and dynamics of ozone and remains a challenge for the theory. In this work a new analytical representation is proposed for the PES of the ground electronic state of the ozone molecule in the range covering the main potential well and the transition state towards the dissociation. This model accounts for particular features specific to the ozone PES for large variations of nuclear displacements along the minimum energy path. The impact of the shape of the PES near the transition state (existence of the "reef structure") on vibration energy levels was studied for the first time. The major purpose of this work was to provide accurate theoretical predictions for ozone vibrational band centres at the energy range near the dissociation threshold, which would be helpful for understanding the very complicated high-resolution spectra and its analyses currently in progress. Extended ab initio electronic structure calculations were carried out enabling the determination of the parameters of a minimum energy path PES model resulting in a new set of theoretical vibrational levels of ozone. A comparison with recent high-resolution spectroscopic data on the vibrational levels gives the root-mean-square deviations below 1 cm(-1) for ozone band centres up to 90% of the dissociation energy. New ab initio vibrational predictions represent a significant improvement with respect to all previously available calculations.

Conceptual modelling to predict unobserved system states - the case of groundwater flooding in the UK Chalk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, A. J.; Ireson, A. M.

2017-12-01

Chalk aquifers represent an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to its fractured-porous structure, Chalk aquifers are characterized by highly dynamic groundwater fluctuations that enhance the risk of groundwater flooding. The risk of groundwater flooding can be assessed by physically-based groundwater models. But for reliable results, a-priori information about the distribution of hydraulic conductivities and porosities is necessary, which is often not available. For that reason, conceptual simulation models are often used to predict groundwater behaviour. They commonly require calibration by historic groundwater observations. Consequently, their prediction performance may reduce significantly, when it comes to system states that did not occur within the calibration time series. In this study, we calibrate a conceptual model to the observed groundwater level observations at several locations within a Chalk system in Southern England. During the calibration period, no groundwater flooding occurred. We then apply our model to predict the groundwater dynamics of the system at a time that includes a groundwater flooding event. We show that the calibrated model provides reasonable predictions before and after the flooding event but it over-estimates groundwater levels during the event. After modifying the model structure to include topographic information, the model is capable of prediction the groundwater flooding event even though groundwater flooding never occurred in the calibration period. Although straight forward, our approach shows how conceptual process-based models can be applied to predict system states and dynamics that did not occur in the calibration period. We believe such an approach can be transferred to similar cases, especially to regions where rainfall intensities are expected to trigger processes and system states that may have not yet been observed.

Fast-timing study of the l -forbidden 1 /2+→3 /2+ M 1 transition in 129Sn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Licǎ, R.; Mach, H.; Fraile, L. M.; Gargano, A.; Borge, M. J. G.; Mǎrginean, N.; Sotty, C. O.; Vedia, V.; Andreyev, A. N.; Benzoni, G.; Bomans, P.; Borcea, R.; Coraggio, L.; Costache, C.; De Witte, H.; Flavigny, F.; Fynbo, H.; Gaffney, L. P.; Greenlees, P. T.; Harkness-Brennan, L. J.; Huyse, M.; Ibáñez, P.; Judson, D. S.; Konki, J.; Korgul, A.; Kröll, T.; Kurcewicz, J.; Lalkovski, S.; Lazarus, I.; Lund, M. V.; Madurga, M.; Mǎrginean, R.; Marroquín, I.; Mihai, C.; Mihai, R. E.; Morales, A. I.; Nácher, E.; Negret, A.; Page, R. D.; Pakarinen, J.; Pascu, S.; Paziy, V.; Perea, A.; Pérez-Liva, M.; Picado, E.; Pucknell, V.; Rapisarda, E.; Rahkila, P.; Rotaru, F.; Swartz, J. A.; Tengblad, O.; Van Duppen, P.; Vidal, M.; Wadsworth, R.; Walters, W. B.; Warr, N.; IDS Collaboration

2016-04-01

The levels in 129Sn populated from the β- decay of 129In isomers were investigated at the ISOLDE facility of CERN using the newly commissioned ISOLDE Decay Station (IDS). The lowest 1 /2+ state and the 3 /2+ ground state in 129Sn are expected to have configurations dominated by the neutron s1 /2 (l =0 ) and d3 /2 (l =2 ) single-particle states, respectively. Consequently, these states should be connected by a somewhat slow l -forbidden M 1 transition. Using fast-timing spectroscopy we have measured the half-life of the 1 /2+ 315.3-keV state, T1 /2= 19(10) ps, which corresponds to a moderately fast M 1 transition. Shell-model calculations using the CD-Bonn effective interaction, with standard effective charges and g factors, predict a 4-ns half-life for this level. We can reconcile the shell-model calculations to the measured T1 /2 value by the renormalization of the M 1 effective operator for neutron holes.

Virtual reality and paranoid ideations in people with an 'at-risk mental state' for psychosis.

PubMed

Valmaggia, Lucia R; Freeman, Daniel; Green, Catherine; Garety, Philippa; Swapp, David; Antley, Angus; Prescott, Corinne; Fowler, David; Kuipers, Elizabeth; Bebbington, Paul; Slater, Mel; Broome, Matthew; McGuire, Philip K

2007-12-01

Virtual reality provides a means of studying paranoid thinking in controlled laboratory conditions. However, this method has not been used with a clinical group. To establish the feasibility and safety of using virtual reality methodology in people with an at-risk mental state and to investigate the applicability of a cognitive model of paranoia to this group. Twenty-one participants with an at-risk mental state were assessed before and after entering a virtual reality environment depicting the inside of an underground train. Virtual reality did not raise levels of distress at the time of testing or cause adverse experiences over the subsequent week. Individuals attributed mental states to virtual reality characters including hostile intent. Persecutory ideation in virtual reality was predicted by higher levels of trait paranoia, anxiety, stress, immersion in virtual reality, perseveration and interpersonal sensitivity. Virtual reality is an acceptable experimental technique for use with individuals with at-risk mental states. Paranoia in virtual reality was understandable in terms of the cognitive model of persecutory delusions.

Merging Psychophysical and Psychometric Theory to Estimate Global Visual State Measures from Forced-Choices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massof, Robert W.; Schmidt, Karen M.; Laby, Daniel M.; Kirschen, David; Meadows, David

2013-09-01

Visual acuity, a forced-choice psychophysical measure of visual spatial resolution, is the sine qua non of clinical visual impairment testing in ophthalmology and optometry patients with visual system disorders ranging from refractive error to retinal, optic nerve, or central visual system pathology. Visual acuity measures are standardized against a norm, but it is well known that visual acuity depends on a variety of stimulus parameters, including contrast and exposure duration. This paper asks if it is possible to estimate a single global visual state measure from visual acuity measures as a function of stimulus parameters that can represent the patient's overall visual health state with a single variable. Psychophysical theory (at the sensory level) and psychometric theory (at the decision level) are merged to identify the conditions that must be satisfied to derive a global visual state measure from parameterised visual acuity measures. A global visual state measurement model is developed and tested with forced-choice visual acuity measures from 116 subjects with no visual impairments and 560 subjects with uncorrected refractive error. The results are in agreement with the expectations of the model.

Regular Soda Policies, School Availability, and High School Student Consumption

PubMed Central

Terry-McElrath, Yvonne M.; Chriqui, Jamie F.; O’Malley, Patrick M.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Johnston, Lloyd D.

2014-01-01

Background Beginning in the 2014–2015 school year, all U.S. schools participating in federally reimbursable meal programs are required to implement new nutrition standards for items sold in competitive venues. Multilevel mediation modeling examining direct, mediated, and indirect pathways between policy, availability, and student consumption might provide insight into possible outcomes of implementing aspects of the new standards. Purpose To employ multilevel mediation modeling using state- and school district–level policies mandating school soda bans, school soda availability, and student soda consumption. Methods The 2010–2012 Monitoring the Future surveys obtained nationally representative data on high school student soda consumption; school administrators provided school soda availability data. State laws and district policies were compiled and coded. Analyses conducted in 2014 controlled for state-, school-, and student-level characteristics. Results State–district–school models found that state bans were associated with significantly lower school soda availability (c, p<0.05) but district bans showed no significant associations. No significant direct, mediated, or indirect associations between state policy and student consumption were observed for the overall sample. Among African American high school students, state policy was associated directly with significantly lower school soda availability (a, p<0.01), and—indirectly through lower school availability—with significantly lower soda consumption (a*b, p<0.05). Conclusions These analyses indicate state policy focused on regular soda strongly affected school soda availability, and worked through changes in school availability to decrease soda consumption among African American students, but not the overall population. PMID:25576493

Modeling resting-state functional networks when the cortex falls asleep: local and global changes.

PubMed

Deco, Gustavo; Hagmann, Patric; Hudetz, Anthony G; Tononi, Giulio

2014-12-01

The transition from wakefulness to sleep represents the most conspicuous change in behavior and the level of consciousness occurring in the healthy brain. It is accompanied by similarly conspicuous changes in neural dynamics, traditionally exemplified by the change from "desynchronized" electroencephalogram activity in wake to globally synchronized slow wave activity of early sleep. However, unit and local field recordings indicate that the transition is more gradual than it might appear: On one hand, local slow waves already appear during wake; on the other hand, slow sleep waves are only rarely global. Studies with functional magnetic resonance imaging also reveal changes in resting-state functional connectivity (FC) between wake and slow wave sleep. However, it remains unclear how resting-state networks may change during this transition period. Here, we employ large-scale modeling of the human cortico-cortical anatomical connectivity to evaluate changes in resting-state FC when the model "falls asleep" due to the progressive decrease in arousal-promoting neuromodulation. When cholinergic neuromodulation is parametrically decreased, local slow waves appear, while the overall organization of resting-state networks does not change. Furthermore, we show that these local slow waves are structured macroscopically in networks that resemble the resting-state networks. In contrast, when the neuromodulator decrease further to very low levels, slow waves become global and resting-state networks merge into a single undifferentiated, broadly synchronized network. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Correlation between cortical beta power and gait speed is suppressed in a parkinsonian model, but restored by therapeutic deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

Polar, Christian A; Gupta, Rahul; Lehmkuhle, Mark J; Dorval, Alan D

2018-05-30

The motor cortex and subthalamic nucleus (STN) of patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) exhibit abnormally high levels of electrophysiological oscillations in the ~12-35 Hz beta-frequency range. Recent studies have shown that beta is partly carried forward to regulate future motor states in the healthy condition, suggesting that steady state beta power is lower when a sequence of movements occurs in a short period of time, such as during fast gait. However, whether this relationship between beta power and motor states persists upon parkinsonian onset or in response to effective therapy is unclear. Using a 6-hydroxy dopamine (6-OHDA) rat model of PD and a custom-built behavioral and neurophysiological recording system, we aimed to elucidate a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying cortical beta power and PD symptoms. In addition to elevated levels of beta oscillations, we show that parkinsonian onset was accompanied by a decoupling of movement intensity - quantified as gait speed - from cortical beta power. Although subthalamic deep brain stimulation (DBS) reduced general levels of beta oscillations in the cortex of all PD animals, the brain's capacity to regulate steady state levels of beta power as a function of movement intensity was only restored in animals with therapeutic DBS. We propose that, in addition to lowering general levels of cortical beta power, restoring the brain's ability to maintain this inverse relationship is critical for effective symptom suppression. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Patterns of Second-Line Uterotonic Use in a Large Sample of Hospitalizations for Childbirth in the United States: 2007 - 2011

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Tsen, Lawrence C.; Liu, Jun; Butwick, Alexander J.; Huybrechts, Krista F.

2015-01-01

Introduction The incidence of postpartum hemorrhage due to uterine atony has increased significantly in the United States during the past decade. For patients with refractory uterine atony after oxytocin administration, second-line uterotonics including methylergonovine maleate, carboprost, and misoprostol are recommended. In this study we describe hospital-level patterns of second-line uterotonic use in a large, nationwide sample of admissions for childbirth in the United States. Methods The Premier Research Database was used to define a cohort of 2,180,916 patients hospitalized for delivery at 1 of 367 hospitals from 2007 to 2011. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were used to estimate the hospital-specific frequency of second-line uterotonic use adjusting for measured patient-level and hospital-level characteristics that might be risk factors for uterine atony. Results The median hospital-level frequency of second-line uterotonic use was 7.1% (interquartile range 5.2% to 10.8%). In the fully adjusted model, the mean (SE) predicted probability of second-line uterotonic use was 7.02% (0.26%), with 95% of the hospitals having a predicted (SE) probability between 1.69% (0.12%) and 24.96% (1.28%). Conclusions We observed wide interhospital variation in the use of second-line uterotonics that was not explained by patient-level or hospital-level characteristics. Studies aimed at defining the optimal pharmacologic strategies for the management of uterine atony are needed, particularly in light of the increasing incidence of atonic postpartum hemorrhage in the United States and other developed countries. PMID:25166464

Poole-Frenkel effect in sputter-deposited CuAlO2+x nanocrystals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narayan Banerjee, Arghya; Joo, Sang Woo

2013-04-01

Field-assisted thermionic emission within a sputter-deposited, nanocrystalline thin film of CuAlO2.06 is observed for the first time, and explained in terms of the Poole-Frenkel model. The presence of adsorbed oxygen ions as trap-states at the grain boundary regions of the nanostructured thin film is considered to manifest this phenomenon. Under an applied field, the barrier of the trap potential is lowered and thermal emission of charge carriers takes place at different sample temperatures to induce nonlinearity in the current (I)-voltage (V) characteristics of the nanomaterial. Fitting of the Poole-Frenkel model with the I-V data shows that the nonlinearity is effective above 50 V under the operating conditions. Calculations of the energy of the trap level, acceptor level and Fermi level reveal the existence of deep level trap-states and a shallow acceptor level with acceptor concentration considerably higher than the trap-states. Hall measurements confirm the p-type semiconductivity of the film, with a hole concentration around 1018 cm-3. Thermopower measurements give a room-temperature Seebeck coefficient around 130 μV K-1. This temperature-dependent conductivity enhancement within CuAlO2 nanomaterial may find interesting applications in transparent electronics and high-voltage applications for power supply networks.

Poole-Frenkel effect in sputter-deposited CuAlO(2+x) nanocrystals.

PubMed

Banerjee, Arghya Narayan; Joo, Sang Woo

2013-04-26

Field-assisted thermionic emission within a sputter-deposited, nanocrystalline thin film of CuAlO2.06 is observed for the first time, and explained in terms of the Poole-Frenkel model. The presence of adsorbed oxygen ions as trap-states at the grain boundary regions of the nanostructured thin film is considered to manifest this phenomenon. Under an applied field, the barrier of the trap potential is lowered and thermal emission of charge carriers takes place at different sample temperatures to induce nonlinearity in the current (I)-voltage (V) characteristics of the nanomaterial. Fitting of the Poole-Frenkel model with the I-V data shows that the nonlinearity is effective above 50 V under the operating conditions. Calculations of the energy of the trap level, acceptor level and Fermi level reveal the existence of deep level trap-states and a shallow acceptor level with acceptor concentration considerably higher than the trap-states. Hall measurements confirm the p-type semiconductivity of the film, with a hole concentration around 10(18) cm(-3). Thermopower measurements give a room-temperature Seebeck coefficient around 130 μV K(-1). This temperature-dependent conductivity enhancement within CuAlO2 nanomaterial may find interesting applications in transparent electronics and high-voltage applications for power supply networks.

Associations between sexuality education in schools and adolescent birthrates: a state-level longitudinal model.

PubMed

Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Iguchi, Martin; Schootman, Mario; Cottler, Linda; Grucza, Richard A; Bierut, Laura Jean

2012-02-01

To examine the impact of sexuality education practices on adolescent birthrates while controlling for demographic characteristics and religious/political factors at a state level. Prospective cohort study. Twenty-four states, from 1997 through 2005. Girls aged 15 to 17 years. The state sexuality education practices (ie, sexually transmitted disease prevention, pregnancy prevention, condom efficacy) for 1996 through 2004 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention School Health Profiles Survey. State birthrates for girls aged 15 to 17 years for 1997 through 2005 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In a longitudinal, unadjusted model, our findings provide evidence that increased sexuality education within school curricula is associated with lower adolescent birthrates (average sexuality education topics β = -0.61; P = .001). However, the effect of sexuality education disappeared when taking into consideration the demographic characteristics, religiosity, and abortion policies of the state (average sexuality education topics β = -0.12; P = .26). States with higher religiosity rankings and greater political conservatism had higher adolescent birthrates. The effects of sexuality education were constrained by state characteristics and do not independently explain the considerable variations in adolescent birthrates found across states. Our findings underscore the strong influence of state characteristics on adolescent birthrates above and beyond sexuality education, which must be considered when evaluating the efficacy of sexuality education programs.

Folding and stability of helical bundle proteins from coarse-grained models.

PubMed

Kapoor, Abhijeet; Travesset, Alex

2013-07-01

We develop a coarse-grained model where solvent is considered implicitly, electrostatics are included as short-range interactions, and side-chains are coarse-grained to a single bead. The model depends on three main parameters: hydrophobic, electrostatic, and side-chain hydrogen bond strength. The parameters are determined by considering three level of approximations and characterizing the folding for three selected proteins (training set). Nine additional proteins (containing up to 126 residues) as well as mutated versions (test set) are folded with the given parameters. In all folding simulations, the initial state is a random coil configuration. Besides the native state, some proteins fold into an additional state differing in the topology (structure of the helical bundle). We discuss the stability of the native states, and compare the dynamics of our model to all atom molecular dynamics simulations as well as some general properties on the interactions governing folding dynamics. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

State Estimation of International Space Station Centrifuge Rotor With Incomplete Knowledge of Disturbance Inputs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sullivan, Michael J.

2005-01-01

This thesis develops a state estimation algorithm for the Centrifuge Rotor (CR) system where only relative measurements are available with limited knowledge of both rotor imbalance disturbances and International Space Station (ISS) thruster disturbances. A Kalman filter is applied to a plant model augmented with sinusoidal disturbance states used to model both the effect of the rotor imbalance and the 155 thrusters on the CR relative motion measurement. The sinusoidal disturbance states compensate for the lack of the availability of plant inputs for use in the Kalman filter. Testing confirms that complete disturbance modeling is necessary to ensure reliable estimation. Further testing goes on to show that increased estimator operational bandwidth can be achieved through the expansion of the disturbance model within the filter dynamics. In addition, Monte Carlo analysis shows the varying levels of robustness against defined plant/filter uncertainty variations.

The Influence of Airmass Histories on Radical Species during POLARIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, J. M.; Kawa, S. R.; Salawitch, R. J.; Hanisco, T. F.; Lanzendorf, E. J.; Perkins, K. K.; Gao, R. S.; Cohen, R. C.

1999-01-01

The Goddard trajectory chemistry model was used with ER-2 aircraft data to test our current knowledge of radical photochemistry during the POLARIS (Polar Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region In Summer) campaign. The results of the trajectory chemistry model with and without trajectories are used to identify cases where steady state does not accurately describe the measurements. Over the entire mission, using trajectory chemistry reduces the variability in the modeled NO(x) comparisons to data by 25% with respect to the same model simulating steady state. Although the variability is reduced, NO(x)/NO(y) trajectory model results were found to be systematically low relative to the observations by 20-30% as seen in previous studies. Using new rate constants for reactions important in NO(y) partitioning improves the agreement of NO(x)/NO(y) with the observations but a 5-10% bias still exists. OH and HO2 individually are underpredicted by 15% of the standard steady state model and worsen with the new rate constants. Trajectory chemistry model results of OH/HO2 were systematically low by 10-20% but improve using the new rates constants because of the explicit dependence on NO. This suggests that our understanding of NO(x) is accurate to the 20% level and HO(x) chemistry is accurate to the 30% level in the lower stratosphere or better for the POLARIS regime. The behavior of the NO(x) and HO(x) comparisons to data using steady state versus trajectory chemistry and with updated rate coefficients is discussed in ten-ns of known chemical mechanisms and lifetimes.

Explaining the Growth in US Health Care Spending Using State-Level Variation in Income, Insurance, and Provider Market Dynamics

PubMed Central

Herring, Bradley; Trish, Erin

2015-01-01

The slowed growth in national health care spending over the past decade has led analysts to question the extent to which this recent slowdown can be explained by predictable factors such as the Great Recession or must be driven by some unpredictable structural change in the health care sector. To help address this question, we first estimate a regression model for state personal health care spending for 1991-2009, with an emphasis on the explanatory power of income, insurance, and provider market characteristics. We then use the results from this simple predictive model to produce state-level projections of health care spending for 2010-2013 to subsequently compare those average projected state values with actual national spending for 2010-2013, finding that at least 70% of the recent slowdown in health care spending can likely be explained by long-standing patterns. We also use the results from this predictive model to both examine the Great Recession’s likely reduction in health care spending and project the Affordable Care Act’s insurance expansion’s likely increase in health care spending. PMID:26655685

Atomic data and line intensities for the S V ion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iorga, C.; Stancalie, V.

2017-05-01

The energy levels, oscillator strengths, spontaneous radiative decay rates, lifetimes and electron impact collision strengths have been obtained for the [ Ne ] 3s nl, [ Ne ] 3p nl, [ Ne ] 3d nl configurations belonging to S V ion, with n ≤ 7 and l ≤ 4, resulting in 567 fine-structure levels. The calculations have been performed within the fully relativistic Flexible Atomic Code (FAC, Gu, 2008) framework and the distorted wave approximation. To attain the desired accuracy for the levels energy, the valence-valence and valence-core correlations have been taken care of by including 96 configuration state functions (CSFs) in the model, reaching a total of 3147 fine-structure levels. Two separate calculations have been performed with the local central potential computed for two different average configurations. A third calculation is also performed without the addition of the core-excited states in the atomic model for completeness. The effects of slightly different mean configurations and valence-core correlations on the energy levels and decay rates are investigated. The collision data have been computed employing the relativistic distorted-wave method along with the atomic model containing the 96 CSFs and corresponding to the ground state mean configuration. The collision strengths corresponding to excitation from the first four fine-structure levels are given for five energy values of the scattered electron 2.65, 6.18, 11.02, 17.36, 25.43 Rydberg, plus an additional variable small energy value near the threshold. A collisional-radiative model has been employed to solve the rate equations for the populations of the 567 fine-structure levels, for a temperature of LogTE(K) = 5.2 corresponding to the maximum abundance of S V, and at densities 106-1016cm-3, assuming a Maxwellian electron energy distribution function and black body radiation of temperature 6000 K and dilution factor 0.35 for the photon distribution function. The main processes responsible for the level population variations are the electron-impact collisional excitation and the radiative decay along with their inverse processes. As a result, the level populations along with the spectral high-line intensity ratios are provided.

Modeling the economic outcomes of immuno-oncology drugs: alternative model frameworks to capture clinical outcomes

PubMed Central

Gibson, EJ; Begum, N; Koblbauer, I; Dranitsaris, G; Liew, D; McEwan, P; Tahami Monfared, AA; Yuan, Y; Juarez-Garcia, A; Tyas, D; Lees, M

2018-01-01

Background Economic models in oncology are commonly based on the three-state partitioned survival model (PSM) distinguishing between progression-free and progressive states. However, the heterogeneity of responses observed in immuno-oncology (I-O) suggests that new approaches may be appropriate to reflect disease dynamics meaningfully. Materials and methods This study explored the impact of incorporating immune-specific health states into economic models of I-O therapy. Two variants of the PSM and a Markov model were populated with data from one clinical trial in metastatic melanoma patients. Short-term modeled outcomes were benchmarked to the clinical trial data and a lifetime model horizon provided estimates of life years and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Results The PSM-based models produced short-term outcomes closely matching the trial outcomes. Adding health states generated increased QALYs while providing a more granular representation of outcomes for decision making. The Markov model gave the greatest level of detail on outcomes but gave short-term results which diverged from those of the trial (overstating year 1 progression-free survival by around 60%). Conclusion Increased sophistication in the representation of disease dynamics in economic models is desirable when attempting to model treatment response in I-O. However, the assumptions underlying different model structures and the availability of data for health state mapping may be important limiting factors. PMID:29563820

Socioeconomic and state-level differences in prenatal diagnosis and live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome in the United States.

PubMed

Khoshnood, B; Pryde, P; Blondel, B; Lee, K S

2003-12-01

Previous studies have shown socioeconomic disparities in the use of prenatal diagnosis in several countries, including France and the United States. Few studies however, have examined the impact of socioeconomic differences in prenatal testing on disparities in the live birth prevalence of congenital anomalies. In this article, we first review and further discuss some of the results of our previously published work that assesses: i) socioeconomic differences in the use of amniocentesis in the United States using data from national birth cohorts; and ii) impact of socioeconomic differences in prenatal diagnosis on the live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome (trisomy 21). We then present the results of a study that explores the potential effects of public policies regarding abortion on state-level differences in the live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome. We used birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics for the years 1989 to 1991 as well as data from the National Abortion and Reproductive Rights Action League (NARAL) state-by-state review of abortion rights. The main individual-level socioeconomic variables in the analyses were maternal ethnicity and education; the analyses of the interaction effects between maternal age and ethnicity are presented here. Interaction effects were assessed using logistic regression models with likelihood ratio tests. We used hierarchical logistic regression models for analyses of state-level effects while controlling for individual-level socioeconomic factors. We found substantial age-specific socioeconomic differences in the use of amniocentesis and in the rates of age-related increase in the live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome. In particular, African Americans and Mexican Americans were found to have lower odds of amniocentesis use and higher odds of Down's syndrome at birth. In addition, after controlling for maternal age, socioeconomic factors and prenatal care, we found that states which allowed public financing of abortion services for all or most circumstances had lower odds of Down's syndrome at birth. Unless socioeconomic differences in prenatal testing are addressed, the increasing use of prenatal testing might result in widening socioeconomic disparities in the live birth prevalence of Down's syndrome and other major congenital anomalies in future years.

Algorithm for solving of two-level hierarchical minimax program control problem of final state the regional socio-economic system in the presence of risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shorikov, A. F.

2017-10-01

In this paper we study the problem of optimization of guaranteed result for program control by the final state of regional social and economic system in the presence of risks. For this problem we propose a mathematical model in the form of two-level hierarchical minimax program control problem of the final state of this process with incomplete information. For solving of its problem we constructed the common algorithm that has a form of a recurrent procedure of solving a linear programming and a finite optimization problems.

Solvable four-state Landau-Zener model of two interacting qubits with path interference

DOE PAGES

Sinitsyn, Nikolai A.

2015-11-30

In this paper, I identify a nontrivial four-state Landau-Zener model for which transition probabilities between any pair of diabatic states can be determined analytically and exactly. The model describes an experimentally accessible system of two interacting qubits, such as a localized state in a Dirac material with both valley and spin degrees of freedom or a singly charged quantum dot (QD) molecule with spin orbit coupling. Application of the linearly time-dependent magnetic field induces a sequence of quantum level crossings with possibility of interference of different trajectories in a semiclassical picture. I argue that this system satisfies the criteria ofmore » integrability in the multistate Landau-Zener theory, which allows one to derive explicit exact analytical expressions for the transition probability matrix. Finally, I also argue that this model is likely a special case of a larger class of solvable systems, and present a six-state generalization as an example.« less

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model with state-level resolution for examining strategies for addressing air, climate and energy goals

EPA Science Inventory

The Global Climate Assessment Model (GCAM) is a global integrated assessment model used for exploring future scenarios and examining strategies that address air pollution, climate change, and energy goals. GCAM includes technology-rich representations of the energy, transportati...

Uncertainty considerations in calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Hydrologic and water quality models (HWQMs) are increasingly used to support decisions on the state of various environmental issues and policy directions on present and future scenarios, at scales varying from watershed to continental levels. Uncertainty associated with such models may impact the ca...

Community Level Impact Assessment--Extension Applications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Woods, Mike D.; Doeksen, Gerald A.

Using the Oklahoma State University (OSU) computerized community simulation model, extension professionals can provide local decision makers with information derived from an impact model that is dynamic, community specific, and easy to adapt to different communities. The four main sections of the OSU model are an economic account, a capital…

ADVANCED UTILITY SIMULATION MODEL DOCUMENTATION OF SYSTEM DESIGN STATE LEVEL MODEL (VERSION 1.0)

EPA Science Inventory

The report is one of 11 in a series describing the initial development of the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM) by the Universities Research Group on Energy (URGE) and its continued development by the Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) research team. The...

Population decoding of motor cortical activity using a generalized linear model with hidden states.

PubMed

Lawhern, Vernon; Wu, Wei; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas; Paninski, Liam

2010-06-15

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been developed for modeling and decoding population neuronal spiking activity in the motor cortex. These models provide reasonable characterizations between neural activity and motor behavior. However, they lack a description of movement-related terms which are not observed directly in these experiments, such as muscular activation, the subject's level of attention, and other internal or external states. Here we propose to include a multi-dimensional hidden state to address these states in a GLM framework where the spike count at each time is described as a function of the hand state (position, velocity, and acceleration), truncated spike history, and the hidden state. The model can be identified by an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We tested this new method in two datasets where spikes were simultaneously recorded using a multi-electrode array in the primary motor cortex of two monkeys. It was found that this method significantly improves the model-fitting over the classical GLM, for hidden dimensions varying from 1 to 4. This method also provides more accurate decoding of hand state (reducing the mean square error by up to 29% in some cases), while retaining real-time computational efficiency. These improvements on representation and decoding over the classical GLM model suggest that this new approach could contribute as a useful tool to motor cortical decoding and prosthetic applications. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Population Decoding of Motor Cortical Activity using a Generalized Linear Model with Hidden States

PubMed Central

Lawhern, Vernon; Wu, Wei; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.; Paninski, Liam

2010-01-01

Generalized linear models (GLMs) have been developed for modeling and decoding population neuronal spiking activity in the motor cortex. These models provide reasonable characterizations between neural activity and motor behavior. However, they lack a description of movement-related terms which are not observed directly in these experiments, such as muscular activation, the subject's level of attention, and other internal or external states. Here we propose to include a multi-dimensional hidden state to address these states in a GLM framework where the spike count at each time is described as a function of the hand state (position, velocity, and acceleration), truncated spike history, and the hidden state. The model can be identified by an Expectation-Maximization algorithm. We tested this new method in two datasets where spikes were simultaneously recorded using a multi-electrode array in the primary motor cortex of two monkeys. It was found that this method significantly improves the model-fitting over the classical GLM, for hidden dimensions varying from 1 to 4. This method also provides more accurate decoding of hand state (lowering the Mean Square Error by up to 29% in some cases), while retaining real-time computational efficiency. These improvements on representation and decoding over the classical GLM model suggest that this new approach could contribute as a useful tool to motor cortical decoding and prosthetic applications. PMID:20359500

The Microgravity Vibration Isolation Mount: A Dynamic Model for Optimal Controller Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, R. David; Tryggvason, Bjarni V.; DeCarufel, Jean; Townsend, Miles A.; Wagar, William O.

1997-01-01

Vibration acceleration levels on large space platforms exceed the requirements of many space experiments. The Microgravity Vibration Isolation Mount (MIM) was built by the Canadian Space Agency to attenuate these disturbances to acceptable levels, and has been operational on the Russian Space Station Mir since May 1996. It has demonstrated good isolation performance and has supported several materials science experiments. The MIM uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to levitate and isolate payloads at the individual experiment/sub-experiment (versus rack) level. Payload acceleration, relative position, and relative orientation (Euler-parameter) measurements are fed to a state-space controller. The controller, in turn, determines the actuator currents needed for effective experiment isolation. This paper presents the development of an algebraic, state-space model of the MIM, in a form suitable for optimal controller design.

Role of State Tsunami Geoscientists during Emergency Response Activities: Example from the State of California (USA) during September 29, 2009, Samoa Tsunami Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Dengler, L. A.; Goltz, J. D.; Legg, M.; Miller, K. M.; Parrish, J. G.; Whitmore, P.

2009-12-01

California tsunami geoscientists work closely with federal, state and local government emergency managers to help prepare coastal communities for potential impacts from a tsunami before, during, and after an event. For teletsunamis, as scientific information (forecast model wave heights, first-wave arrival times, etc.) from NOAA’s West Coast and Alaska’s Tsunami Warning Center is made available, state-level emergency managers must help convey this information in a concise and comprehendible manner to local officials who ultimately determine the appropriate response activities for their jurisdictions. During the Samoa Tsunami Advisory for California on September 29, 2009, geoscientists from the California Geological Survey and Humboldt State University assisted the California Emergency Management Agency in this information transfer by providing technical assistance during teleconference meetings with NOAA and other state and local emergency managers prior to the arrival of the tsunami. State geoscientists gathered additional background information on anticipated tidal conditions and wave heights for areas not covered by NOAA’s forecast models. The participation of the state geoscientists in the emergency response process resulted in clarifying which regions were potentially at-risk, as well as those having a low risk from the tsunami. Future tsunami response activities for state geoscientists include: 1) working closely with NOAA to simplify their tsunami alert messaging and expand their forecast modeling coverage, 2) creation of “playbooks” containing information from existing tsunami scenarios for local emergency managers to reference during an event, and 3) development of a state-level information “clearinghouse” and pre-tsunami field response team to assist local officials as well as observe and report tsunami effects.

Issue of Building Information Modelling Implementation into the Czech Republic’s Legislation using the Level of Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prušková, Kristýna; Nývlt, Vladimír

2017-10-01

The object of this paper is the issue of links between the Level of Development of particular project in Building Information Modeling environment and the projects of certain stages of project documentation within the existing Czech Republic’s Legislation. This research article uses the experiences from the initiative of active working group „WG#03: BIM & Realization“, which is the part of the Czech BIM Council, especially the document called “Draft of unified data structure for Building Information Modeling in the Czech Republic”. The findings of this paper are in the defining specific Level of Development of relative parameters, mentioned in this document, connected to the specific level of information and details requested by the Czech Republic’s Legislation. These findings could be used as an underlay to create document called “Level of Development draft assignment to the individual stages of project documentation in the Czech Republic”. The Level of Development is the most useful way of the information visualization, which leads to the most effortless way of exact stated implementation of Building Information Modeling into the practice of designing structures and buildings in the Czech Republic. The Implementation of using Building Information Modeling technology in designing structures and buildings will lead to the enhanced quality of the project documentation and generally to more effective cost savings during whole life cycle of buildings. Moreover, the all over using of the BIM technology in the Czech Republic will be very useful in the Facility Management area, especially in the facility management and maintenance of state buildings.

The Perfect Model for the Perfect Storm: Creating an Effective State to Grassroots Comprehensive Public Health and Medical Strategic Communication Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Public Health Emergency Activations 2004–2013 ...................................54 Table 3. MS ESF-8/What, Who, and Why...trainings, activations , etc. Additionally, the MS public health districts have ESF-8 databases of contacts that have been built over the years from...entities together to discuss the formalization of a state-level healthcare coalition. During this meeting, two primary activities occurred that were

An atomic model for neutral and singly ionized uranium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maceda, E. L.; Miley, G. H.

1979-01-01

A model for the atomic levels above ground state in neutral, U(0), and singly ionized, U(+), uranium is described based on identified atomic transitions. Some 168 states in U(0) and 95 in U(+) are found. A total of 1581 atomic transitions are used to complete this process. Also discussed are the atomic inverse lifetimes and line widths for the radiative transitions as well as the electron collisional cross sections.

Influence Of Momentum Excess On The Pattern And Dynamics Of Intermediate-Range Stratified Wakes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

excess in order to model the fundamental differences between signatures generated by towed and self- propelled bodies in various ocean states. In cases...which can be used on the operational level for developing and improving algorithms for non- acoustic signature prediction and detection. 14. SUBJECT...order to model the fundamental differences between signatures generated by towed and self- propelled bodies in various ocean states. In cases where

Connected Equipment Maturity Model Version 1.0

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Butzbaugh, Joshua B.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Sullivan, Greg

2017-05-01

The Connected Equipment Maturity Model (CEMM) evaluates the high-level functionality and characteristics that enable equipment to provide the four categories of energy-related services through communication with other entities (e.g., equipment, third parties, utilities, and users). The CEMM will help the U.S. Department of Energy, industry, energy efficiency organizations, and research institutions benchmark the current state of connected equipment and identify capabilities that may be attained to reach a more advanced, future state.

Kinetic analysis of non-isothermal solid-state reactions: multi-stage modeling without assumptions in the reaction mechanism.

PubMed

Pomerantsev, Alexey L; Kutsenova, Alla V; Rodionova, Oxana Ye

2017-02-01

A novel non-linear regression method for modeling non-isothermal thermogravimetric data is proposed. Experiments for several heating rates are analyzed simultaneously. The method is applicable to complex multi-stage processes when the number of stages is unknown. Prior knowledge of the type of kinetics is not required. The main idea is a consequent estimation of parameters when the overall model is successively changed from one level of modeling to another. At the first level, the Avrami-Erofeev functions are used. At the second level, the Sestak-Berggren functions are employed with the goal to broaden the overall model. The method is tested using both simulated and real-world data. A comparison of the proposed method with a recently published 'model-free' deconvolution method is presented.

Air quality co-benefits and costs under state, regional, or national cooperation to regulate CO2 from existing power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saari, R.; Selin, N. E.

2015-12-01

We examine the effect of state, regional, and national cooperation on the costs and air quality co-benefits of a policy to limit the carbon intensity of existing electricity generation. Electricity generation is a significant source of both greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions that harm human health. Previous studies have shown that air quality co-benefits can be substantial compared to the costs of limiting carbon emissions in the energy system. The EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan seeks to impose carbon intensity limits for each state, but allows states to cooperate in order to meet combined limits. We explore how such cooperation might produce trade-offs between lower costs, widespread pollution reductions, and local reductions. We employ a new state-level model of the US energy system and economy to examine the costs and emissions as states reduce demand or deploy cleaner generation. We use an advanced air quality impacts modeling system, including SMOKE, CAMx, and BenMAP, to estimate health-related air quality co-benefits and compare these to costs under different levels of cooperation. We draw conclusions about the potential impacts of cooperation on economic welfare at various scales.

Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado

DOE PAGES

Hannum, Christopher; Cutler, Harvey; Iverson, Terrence; ...

2017-01-07

We develop a state-level computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that reflects the roles of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in supplying electricity, using Colorado as a case study. Also, we focus on the economic impact of implementing Colorado's existing Renewable Portfolio Standard, updated in 2013. This requires that 25% of state generation come from qualifying renewable sources by 2020. We evaluate the policy under a variety of assumptions regarding wind integration costs and assumptions on the persistence of federal subsidies for wind. Specifically, we estimate the implied price of carbon as the carbon price at which a state-levelmore » policy would pass a state-level cost-benefit analysis, taking account of estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions and ancillary benefits from corresponding reductions in criteria pollutants. Our findings suggest that without the Production Tax Credit (federal aid), the state policy of mandating renewable power generation (RPS) is costly to state actors, with an implied cost of carbon of about $17 per ton of CO 2 with a 3% discount rate. Federal aid makes the decision between natural gas and wind nearly cost neutral for Colorado.« less

Estimating the implied cost of carbon in future scenarios using a CGE model: The Case of Colorado

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hannum, Christopher; Cutler, Harvey; Iverson, Terrence

We develop a state-level computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that reflects the roles of coal, natural gas, wind, solar, and hydroelectricity in supplying electricity, using Colorado as a case study. Also, we focus on the economic impact of implementing Colorado's existing Renewable Portfolio Standard, updated in 2013. This requires that 25% of state generation come from qualifying renewable sources by 2020. We evaluate the policy under a variety of assumptions regarding wind integration costs and assumptions on the persistence of federal subsidies for wind. Specifically, we estimate the implied price of carbon as the carbon price at which a state-levelmore » policy would pass a state-level cost-benefit analysis, taking account of estimated greenhouse gas emission reductions and ancillary benefits from corresponding reductions in criteria pollutants. Our findings suggest that without the Production Tax Credit (federal aid), the state policy of mandating renewable power generation (RPS) is costly to state actors, with an implied cost of carbon of about $17 per ton of CO 2 with a 3% discount rate. Federal aid makes the decision between natural gas and wind nearly cost neutral for Colorado.« less

A Solar-Pumped Fluorescence Model for Line-By-Line Emission Intensities in the B-X, A-X, and X-X Band Systems of 12C14N

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paganini, L.; Mumma, M. J.

2016-01-01

We present a new quantitative model for detailed solar-pumped fluorescent emission of the main isotopologue of CN. The derived fluorescence efficiencies permit estimation and interpretation of ro-vibrational infrared line intensities of CN in exospheres exposed to solar (or stellar) radiation. Our g-factors are applicable to astronomical observations of CN extending from infrared to optical wavelengths, and we compare them with previous calculations in the literature. The new model enables extraction of rotational temperature, column abundance, and production rate from astronomical observations of CN in the inner coma of comets. Our model accounts for excitation and de-excitation of rotational levels in the ground vibrational state by collisions, solar excitation to the A(sup 2)Pi(sub I) and B(sup 2)Sum(sup +) electronically excited states followed by cascade to ro-vibrational levels of X(sup 2)Sum(sup +), and direct solar infrared pumping of ro-vibrational levels in the X(sup 2)Sum(sup +) state. The model uses advanced solar spectra acquired at high spectral resolution at the relevant infrared and optical wavelengths and considers the heliocentric radial velocity of the comet (the Swings effect) when assessing the exciting solar flux for a given transition. We present model predictions for the variation of fluorescence rates with rotational temperature and heliocentric radial velocity. Furthermore, we test our fluorescence model by comparing predicted and measured line-by-line intensities for X(sup 2)Sum(sup +) (1-0) in comet C/2014 Q2 (Lovejoy), thereby identifying multiple emission lines observed at IR wavelengths.

Core excitations across the neutron shell gap in 207Tl

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, E.; Podolyák, Zs.; Grawe, H.

2015-05-05

The single closed-neutron-shell, one proton–hole nucleus 207Tl was populated in deep-inelastic collisions of a 208Pb beam with a 208Pb target. The yrast and near-yrast level scheme has been established up to high excitation energy, comprising an octupole phonon state and a large number of core excited states. Based on shell-model calculations, all observed single core excitations were established to arise from the breaking of the N=126 neutron core. While the shell-model calculations correctly predict the ordering of these states, their energies are compressed at high spins. It is concluded that this compression is an intrinsic feature of shell-model calculations usingmore » two-body matrix elements developed for the description of two-body states, and that multiple core excitations need to be considered in order to accurately calculate the energy spacings of the predominantly three-quasiparticle states.« less

Three-dimensional modeling, estimation, and fault diagnosis of spacecraft air contaminants.

PubMed

Narayan, A P; Ramirez, W F

1998-01-01

A description is given of the design and implementation of a method to track the presence of air contaminants aboard a spacecraft using an accurate physical model and of a procedure that would raise alarms when certain tolerance levels are exceeded. Because our objective is to monitor the contaminants in real time, we make use of a state estimation procedure that filters measurements from a sensor system and arrives at an optimal estimate of the state of the system. The model essentially consists of a convection-diffusion equation in three dimensions, solved implicitly using the principle of operator splitting, and uses a flowfield obtained by the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for the cabin geometry, assuming steady-state conditions. A novel implicit Kalman filter has been used for fault detection, a procedure that is an efficient way to track the state of the system and that uses the sparse nature of the state transition matrices.

Multi-category micro-milling tool wear monitoring with continuous hidden Markov models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Kunpeng; Wong, Yoke San; Hong, Geok Soon

2009-02-01

In-process monitoring of tool conditions is important in micro-machining due to the high precision requirement and high tool wear rate. Tool condition monitoring in micro-machining poses new challenges compared to conventional machining. In this paper, a multi-category classification approach is proposed for tool flank wear state identification in micro-milling. Continuous Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are adapted for modeling of the tool wear process in micro-milling, and estimation of the tool wear state given the cutting force features. For a noise-robust approach, the HMM outputs are connected via a medium filter to minimize the tool state before entry into the next state due to high noise level. A detailed study on the selection of HMM structures for tool condition monitoring (TCM) is presented. Case studies on the tool state estimation in the micro-milling of pure copper and steel demonstrate the effectiveness and potential of these methods.

Deriving dynamical models from paleoclimatic records: application to glacial millennial-scale climate variability.

PubMed

Kwasniok, Frank; Lohmann, Gerrit

2009-12-01

A method for systematically deriving simple nonlinear dynamical models from ice-core data is proposed. It offers a tool to integrate models and theories with paleoclimatic data. The method is based on the unscented Kalman filter, a nonlinear extension of the conventional Kalman filter. Here, we adopt the abstract conceptual model of stochastically driven motion in a potential that allows for two distinctly different states. The parameters of the model-the shape of the potential and the noise level-are estimated from a North Greenland ice-core record. For the glacial period from 70 to 20 ky before present, a potential is derived that is asymmetric and almost degenerate. There is a deep well corresponding to a cold stadial state and a very shallow well corresponding to a warm interstadial state.

Effect of microstructural damage on ply stresses in laminated composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allen, D. H.; Nottorf, E. W.; Harris, C. E.

1988-01-01

The mechanisms involved in damage and failure of laminated orthotropic composites are investigated theoretically. The continuum model developed accounts for both matrix cracks and interply delamination using second-order tensor-valued internal-state variables based on the locally averaged microcrack dynamics. The derivation of the model is given in detail, and numerical results for sample problems are presented in extensive graphs and tables. The model is shown to be effective in predicting stresses at the ply level, and significant damage-induced decreases in laminate stress states are found.

Transition from the adiabatic to the sudden limit in core-level photoemission: A model study of a localized system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J. D.; Gunnarsson, O.; Hedin, L.

1999-09-01

We consider core electron photoemission in a localized system, where there is a charge transfer excitation. Examples are transition metal and rare earth compounds, chemisorption systems, and high-Tc compounds. The system is modeled by three electron levels, one core level, and two outer levels. In the initital state the core level and one outer level is filled (a spinless two-electron problem). This model system is embedded in a solid state environment, and the implications of our model system results for solid state photoemission are discussed. When the core hole is created, the more localized outer level (d) is pulled below the less localized level (L). The spectrum has a leading peak corresponding to a charge transfer between L and d (``shakedown''), and a satellite corresponding to no charge transfer. The model has a Coulomb interaction between these levels and the continuum states into which the core electron is emitted. The model is simple enough to allow an exact numerical solution, and with a separable potential an analytic solution. Analytic results are also obtained in lowest order perturbation theory, and in the high-energy limit of the semiclassical approximation. We calculate the ratio r(ω) between the weights of the satellite and the main peak as a function of the photon energy ω. The transition from the adiabatic to the sudden limit is found to take place for quite small kinetic energies of the photoelectron. For such small energies, the variation of the dipole matrix elements is substantial and described by the energy scale E~d. Without the coupling to the photoelectron, the corresponding ratio r0(ω) shows a smooth turn-on of the satellite intensity, due to the turn on of the dipole matrix element. The characteristic energy scales are E~d and the satellite excitation energy δE. When the interaction potential with the continuum states is introduced an energy scale E~s=1/(2R~2s) enters, where R~s is a length scale of the interaction (scattering) potential. At threshold there is typically a (weak) constructive interference between intrinsic and extrinsic contributions, and the ratio r(ω)/r0(ω) is larger than its limiting value for large ω. The interference becomes small or weakly destructive for photoelectron energies of the order E~s. For larger photoelectron energies r(ω)/r0(ω) therefore typically has a weak undershoot. If this undershoot is neglected, r(ω)/r0(ω) reaches its limiting value on the energy scale E~s for the parameter range considered here. In a ``shake-up'' scenario, where the two outer levels do not cross as the core hole is created, we instead find that r(ω)/r0(ω) is typically reduced for small ω by interference effects, as in the case of plasmon excitation. Even for this shake-down case, however, the results are very different from those for a simple metal, where plasmons dominate the picture. In particular, the adiabatic to sudden transition takes place at much lower energies in the case of a localized excitation. The reasons for the differences are briefly discussed.

Search for low-scale gravity signatures in multi-jet final states with the ATLAS detector at $$\\sqrt{s}=8 $$ TeV

DOE PAGES

Aad, G.; Abbott, B.; Abdallah, J.; ...

2015-07-07

A search for evidence of physics beyond the Standard Model in final states with multiple high-transverse-momentum jets is performed using 20.3 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 8 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. No significant excess of events beyond Standard Model expectations is observed, and upper limits on the visible cross sections for non-Standard Model production of multi-jet final states are set. A wide variety of models for black hole and string ball production and decay are considered, and the upper limit on the cross section times acceptance is as low as 0.16more » fb at the 95% confidence level. For these models, excluded regions are also given as function of the main model parameters.« less

For better or worse? Coregulation of couples' cortisol levels and mood states.

PubMed

Saxbe, Darby; Repetti, Rena L

2010-01-01

Although a majority of adults live with a close relationship partner, little is known about whether and how partners' momentary affect and physiology covary, or "coregulate." This study used a dyadic multilevel modeling approach to explore the coregulation of spouses' mood states and cortisol levels in 30 married couples who sampled saliva and reported on mood states 4 times per day for 3 days. For both husbands and wives, own cortisol level was positively associated with partner's cortisol level, even after sampling time was controlled. For wives, marital satisfaction weakened the strength of this effect. Partner's negative mood was positively associated with own negative mood for both husbands and wives. Marital satisfaction fully moderated this effect, reducing the strength of the association between one's own and one's partner's negative mood states. Spouses' positive moods were not correlated. As expected, within-couple coregulation coefficients were stronger when mood and cortisol were sampled in the early morning and evening, when spouses were together at home, than during the workday. The results suggest that spouses' fluctuations in negative mood and cortisol levels are linked over several days and that marital satisfaction may buffer spouses from their partners' negative mood or stress state.

Concepts, challenges, and successes in modeling thermodynamics of metabolism.

PubMed

Cannon, William R

2014-01-01

The modeling of the chemical reactions involved in metabolism is a daunting task. Ideally, the modeling of metabolism would use kinetic simulations, but these simulations require knowledge of the thousands of rate constants involved in the reactions. The measurement of rate constants is very labor intensive, and hence rate constants for most enzymatic reactions are not available. Consequently, constraint-based flux modeling has been the method of choice because it does not require the use of the rate constants of the law of mass action. However, this convenience also limits the predictive power of constraint-based approaches in that the law of mass action is used only as a constraint, making it difficult to predict metabolite levels or energy requirements of pathways. An alternative to both of these approaches is to model metabolism using simulations of states rather than simulations of reactions, in which the state is defined as the set of all metabolite counts or concentrations. While kinetic simulations model reactions based on the likelihood of the reaction derived from the law of mass action, states are modeled based on likelihood ratios of mass action. Both approaches provide information on the energy requirements of metabolic reactions and pathways. However, modeling states rather than reactions has the advantage that the parameters needed to model states (chemical potentials) are much easier to determine than the parameters needed to model reactions (rate constants). Herein, we discuss recent results, assumptions, and issues in using simulations of state to model metabolism.

Adaptive Parameter Estimation of Person Recognition Model in a Stochastic Human Tracking Process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakanishi, W.; Fuse, T.; Ishikawa, T.

2015-05-01

This paper aims at an estimation of parameters of person recognition models using a sequential Bayesian filtering method. In many human tracking method, any parameters of models used for recognize the same person in successive frames are usually set in advance of human tracking process. In real situation these parameters may change according to situation of observation and difficulty level of human position prediction. Thus in this paper we formulate an adaptive parameter estimation using general state space model. Firstly we explain the way to formulate human tracking in general state space model with their components. Then referring to previous researches, we use Bhattacharyya coefficient to formulate observation model of general state space model, which is corresponding to person recognition model. The observation model in this paper is a function of Bhattacharyya coefficient with one unknown parameter. At last we sequentially estimate this parameter in real dataset with some settings. Results showed that sequential parameter estimation was succeeded and were consistent with observation situations such as occlusions.

Maximum likelihood-based analysis of single-molecule photon arrival trajectories.

PubMed

Hajdziona, Marta; Molski, Andrzej

2011-02-07

In this work we explore the statistical properties of the maximum likelihood-based analysis of one-color photon arrival trajectories. This approach does not involve binning and, therefore, all of the information contained in an observed photon strajectory is used. We study the accuracy and precision of parameter estimates and the efficiency of the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) in selecting the true kinetic model. We focus on the low excitation regime where photon trajectories can be modeled as realizations of Markov modulated Poisson processes. The number of observed photons is the key parameter in determining model selection and parameter estimation. For example, the BIC can select the true three-state model from competing two-, three-, and four-state kinetic models even for relatively short trajectories made up of 2 × 10(3) photons. When the intensity levels are well-separated and 10(4) photons are observed, the two-state model parameters can be estimated with about 10% precision and those for a three-state model with about 20% precision.

Use of Dynamic Models and Operational Architecture to Solve Complex Navy Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grande, Darby; Black, J. Todd; Freeman, Jared; Sorber, TIm; Serfaty, Daniel

2010-01-01

The United States Navy established 8 Maritime Operations Centers (MOC) to enhance the command and control of forces at the operational level of warfare. Each MOC is a headquarters manned by qualified joint operational-level staffs, and enabled by globally interoperable C41 systems. To assess and refine MOC staffing, equipment, and schedules, a dynamic software model was developed. The model leverages pre-existing operational process architecture, joint military task lists that define activities and their precedence relations, as well as Navy documents that specify manning and roles per activity. The software model serves as a "computational wind-tunnel" in which to test a MOC on a mission, and to refine its structure, staffing, processes, and schedules. More generally, the model supports resource allocation decisions concerning Doctrine, Organization, Training, Material, Leadership, Personnel and Facilities (DOTMLPF) at MOCs around the world. A rapid prototype effort efficiently produced this software in less than five months, using an integrated process team consisting of MOC military and civilian staff, modeling experts, and software developers. The work reported here was conducted for Commander, United States Fleet Forces Command in Norfolk, Virginia, code N5-0LW (Operational Level of War) that facilitates the identification, consolidation, and prioritization of MOC capabilities requirements, and implementation and delivery of MOC solutions.

Do racial inequities in infant mortality correspond to variations in societal conditions? A study of state-level income inequality in the U.S., 1992-2007.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Arjumand; Jones, Marcella K; Bruce, Donald J; Erwin, Paul C

2016-09-01

Prior studies have examined the association between income inequality and overall infant mortality rates (IMR). We examine effects of income inequality on racial inequities in IMR over the period 1992-2007 in the U.S. Race-specific state IMR data were obtained from 1992 to 2007, from which absolute and relative IMR inequities were calculated. Fixed and random effects models, adjusted for state-level median income, percent poverty, percent high school graduates, and unemployment rate, were used to determine contemporaneous and lagged state-level associations between income inequality and racial IMR inequities. Racial IMR inequities varied significantly across the U.S. Contemporaneous income inequality was negatively associated with white IMR only. Two-year lagged income inequality was negatively associated with black IMR and had the most pronounced effect on racial inequities in IMR. Future studies should consider lagged effects of income inequality on IMR and other health outcomes, and should examine other potential societal conditions that may account for state-level variations in racial IMR inequities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change risks to United States infrastructure: impacts on coastal development, roads, bridges, and urban drainage

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of infrastructure, its deployment, and its role in protecting econom...

State Firearm Laws, Firearm Ownership, and Safety Practices Among Families of Preschool-Aged Children

PubMed Central

Martin-Storey, Alexa; Crosnoe, Robert

2014-01-01

Objectives. We investigated how state-level firearms legislation is associated with firearm ownership and storage among families with preschool-aged children. Methods. Using 2005 nationally representative data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Birth Cohort (n = 8100), we conducted multinomial regression models to examine the associations between state-level firearms legislation generally, child access prevention (CAP) firearms legislation specifically, and parental firearm ownership and storage safety practices. Results. Overall, 8% of families with children aged 4 years living in states with stronger firearm laws and CAP laws owned firearms compared with 24% of families in states with weaker firearm laws and no CAP laws. Storage behaviors of firearm owners differed minimally across legislative contexts. When we controlled for family- and state-level characteristics, we found that firearm legislation and CAP laws interacted to predict ownership and storage behaviors, with unsafe storage least likely among families in states with both CAP laws and stronger firearm legislation. Conclusions. Broader firearm legislation is linked with the efficacy of child-specific legislation in promoting responsible firearm ownership. PMID:24825210

Chimera-like states in a neuronal network model of the cat brain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, M. S.; Szezech, J. D.; Borges, F. S.; Iarosz, K. C.; Caldas, I. L.; Batista, A. M.; Viana, R. L.; Kurths, J.

2017-08-01

Neuronal systems have been modeled by complex networks in different description levels. Recently, it has been verified that networks can simultaneously exhibit one coherent and other incoherent domain, known as chimera states. In this work, we study the existence of chimera states in a network considering the connectivity matrix based on the cat cerebral cortex. The cerebral cortex of the cat can be separated in 65 cortical areas organised into the four cognitive regions: visual, auditory, somatosensory-motor and frontolimbic. We consider a network where the local dynamics is given by the Hindmarsh-Rose model. The Hindmarsh-Rose equations are a well known model of neuronal activity that has been considered to simulate membrane potential in neuron. Here, we analyse under which conditions chimera states are present, as well as the affects induced by intensity of coupling on them. We observe the existence of chimera states in that incoherent structure can be composed of desynchronised spikes or desynchronised bursts. Moreover, we find that chimera states with desynchronised bursts are more robust to neuronal noise than with desynchronised spikes.

Developing a Fundamental Model for an Integrated GPS/INS State Estimation System with Kalman Filtering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Canfield, Stephen

1999-01-01

This work will demonstrate the integration of sensor and system dynamic data and their appropriate models using an optimal filter to create a robust, adaptable, easily reconfigurable state (motion) estimation system. This state estimation system will clearly show the application of fundamental modeling and filtering techniques. These techniques are presented at a general, first principles level, that can easily be adapted to specific applications. An example of such an application is demonstrated through the development of an integrated GPS/INS navigation system. This system acquires both global position data and inertial body data, to provide optimal estimates of current position and attitude states. The optimal states are estimated using a Kalman filter. The state estimation system will include appropriate error models for the measurement hardware. The results of this work will lead to the development of a "black-box" state estimation system that supplies current motion information (position and attitude states) that can be used to carry out guidance and control strategies. This black-box state estimation system is developed independent of the vehicle dynamics and therefore is directly applicable to a variety of vehicles. Issues in system modeling and application of Kalman filtering techniques are investigated and presented. These issues include linearized models of equations of state, models of the measurement sensors, and appropriate application and parameter setting (tuning) of the Kalman filter. The general model and subsequent algorithm is developed in Matlab for numerical testing. The results of this system are demonstrated through application to data from the X-33 Michael's 9A8 mission and are presented in plots and simple animations.

Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

Treesearch

Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

2009-01-01

Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

Simulating Serious Games: A Discrete-Time Computational Model Based on Cognitive Flow Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westera, Wim

2018-01-01

This paper presents a computational model for simulating how people learn from serious games. While avoiding the combinatorial explosion of a games micro-states, the model offers a meso-level pathfinding approach, which is guided by cognitive flow theory and various concepts from learning sciences. It extends a basic, existing model by exposing…

Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

Treesearch

Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

2010-01-01

Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-04-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

[Health councils, intergovernmental commissions, and interest groups in the Unified Health System

PubMed

Ribeiro

1997-01-01

Health councils have developed in Brazil in keeping with arrangements under the 1988 Constitution, and the logic of their political consensus has expanded among interest groups relevant to public policy. Collegiate bodies, such as intergovernmental commissions, represent an extension of that logic to executive relationships and also express political intermediation by expertise, following the tradition of the European Welfare State. The state technical bureaucracy has thus developed a remarkable role in policy-making and in State-level modeling of interest groups. This article argues that such collegiate bodies should be analyzed through State action and defines two models for health councils. One, the vocal political model, is characterized by a prevalence of outspoken denunciation and an overload of demands on the political agenda. The other, the consensus model, expresses self-limitation amongst interest groups in drafting demands. These models are not hierarchically fixed and are usually linked to the political platforms of interest groups participating in the collegiate bodies.

A "Kanes's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, R. David; Beech, Geoffrey

1999-01-01

Many microgravity space-science experiments require vibratory acceleration levels unachievable without active isolation. The Boeing Corporation's Active Rack Isolation System (ARIS) employs a novel combination of magnetic actuation and mechanical linkages, to address these isolation requirements on the International Space Station (ISS). ARIS provides isolation at the rack (international Standard Payload Rack, or ISPR) level. Effective model-based vibration isolation requires (1) an appropriate isolation device, (2) an adequate dynamic (i.e., mathematical) model of that isolator, and (3) a suitable, corresponding controller. ARIS provides the ISS response to the first requirement. This paper presents one response to the second, in a state-space framework intended to facilitate an optimal-controls approach to the third. The authors use "Kane's Dynamics" to develop an state-space, analytical (algebraic) set of linearized equations of motion for ARIS.

A "Kane's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hampton, R. D.; Beech, G. S.; Rao, N. N. S.; Rupert, J. K.; Kim, Y. K.

2001-01-01

Many microgravity space science experiments require vibratory acceleration levels unachievable without active isolation. The Boeing Corporation's Active Rack Isolation System (ARIS) employs a novel combination of magnetic actuation and mechanical linkages to address these isolation requirements on the International Space Station (ISS). ARIS provides isolation at the rack (International Standard Payload Rack (ISPR)) level. Effective model-based vibration isolation requires: (1) an appropriate isolation device, (2) an adequate dynamic (i.e., mathematical) model of that isolator, and (3) a suitable, corresponding controller. ARIS provides the ISS response to the first requirement. This paper presents one response to the second, in a state space framework intended to facilitate an optimal-controls approach to the third. The authors use "Kane's Dynamics" to develop a state-space, analytical (algebraic) set of linearized equations of motion for ARIS.

Practice nurse involvement in primary care depression management: an observational cost-effectiveness analysis

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Most evidence on the effect of collaborative care for depression is derived in the selective environment of randomised controlled trials. In collaborative care, practice nurses may act as case managers. The Primary Care Services Improvement Project (PCSIP) aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative models of practice nurse involvement in a real world Australian setting. Previous analyses have demonstrated the value of high level practice nurse involvement in the management of diabetes and obesity. This paper reports on their value in the management of depression. Methods General practices were assigned to a low or high model of care based on observed levels of practice nurse involvement in clinical-based activities for the management of depression (i.e. percentage of depression patients seen, percentage of consultation time spent on clinical-based activities). Linked, routinely collected data was used to determine patient level depression outcomes (proportion of depression-free days) and health service usage costs. Standardised depression assessment tools were not routinely used, therefore a classification framework to determine the patient’s depressive state was developed using proxy measures (e.g. symptoms, medications, referrals, hospitalisations and suicide attempts). Regression analyses of costs and depression outcomes were conducted, using propensity weighting to control for potential confounders. Results Capacity to determine depressive state using the classification framework was dependent upon the level of detail provided in medical records. While antidepressant medication prescriptions were a strong indicator of depressive state, they could not be relied upon as the sole measure. Propensity score weighted analyses of total depression-related costs and depression outcomes, found that the high level model of care cost more (95% CI: -$314.76 to $584) and resulted in 5% less depression-free days (95% CI: -0.15 to 0.05), compared to the low level model. However, this result was highly uncertain, as shown by the confidence intervals. Conclusions Classification of patients’ depressive state was feasible, but time consuming, using the classification framework proposed. Further validation of the framework is required. Unlike the analyses of diabetes and obesity management, no significant differences in the proportion of depression-free days or health service costs were found between the alternative levels of practice nurse involvement. PMID:24422622

The relationship between state abortion-restrictions and homicide deaths among children under 5 years of age: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Sen, Bisakha; Wingate, Martha Slay; Kirby, Russell

2012-07-01

The purpose of this study is to explore whether, in the U.S., there are associations between state-level variations in mortality among young children and state abortion restriction policies - such as parental-consent requirements, parental-notification requirements, mandatory delay laws, and restrictions on Medicaid funding for abortion. To investigate this, we used NCHS Multiple Cause of Deaths public-use data files for the period 1983-2002, and compiled data on children ages 0-4 identified as having died as a result of assault/homicide in each state and year. Medicaid funding of abortion, mandatory delay laws, and parental involvement laws for minors seeking abortions were included as the main predictor variables of interest. Multivariate count data models using pooled state-year-age cohort data, with state and time fixed effects and other state-level controls, were estimated. Results indicated that, between 1983 and 2002, the average increase in the number of homicide deaths for children under 5 years of age was 5.70 per state among states that implemented stricter abortion policies over that time, and 2.00 per state for states that did not. In the count data models, parental-consent laws were associated with a 13 percent increase in child homicide deaths; parental-notification laws were associated with an 8 percent increase in child homicide deaths though the results were less robust to alternate model specifications; mandatory delay requirements were associated with a 13 percent increase in child homicide deaths. While these data do not allow us to discern precise pathways via which state abortion-restrictions can lead to more child homicide deaths, we speculate that state restrictions on abortion may result in a disproportionate increase in children born into relatively high-risk environments. Additional research is called for to explore the association of state abortion-restrictions with other measures of infant/child health and well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Corresponding-states behavior of SPC/E-based modified (bent and hybrid) water models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Volker C.

2017-02-01

The remarkable and sometimes anomalous properties of water can be traced back at the molecular level to the tetrahedral coordination of molecules due to the ability of a water molecule to form four hydrogen bonds to its neighbors; this feature allows for the formation of a network that greatly influences the thermodynamic behavior. Computer simulations are becoming increasingly important for our understanding of water. Molecular models of water, such as SPC/E, are needed for this purpose, and they have proved to capture many important features of real water. Modifications of the SPC/E model have been proposed, some changing the H-O-H angle (bent models) and others increasing the importance of dispersion interactions (hybrid models), to study the structural features that set water apart from other polar fluids and from simple fluids such as argon. Here, we focus on the properties at liquid-vapor equilibrium and study the coexistence curve, the interfacial tension, and the vapor pressure in a corresponding-states approach. In particular, we calculate Guggenheim's ratio for the reduced apparent enthalpy of vaporization and Guldberg's ratio for the reduced normal boiling point. This analysis offers additional insight from a more macroscopic, thermodynamic perspective and augments that which has already been learned at the molecular level from simulations. In the hybrid models, the relative importance of dispersion interactions is increased, which turns the modified water into a Lennard-Jones-like fluid. Consequently, in a corresponding-states framework, the typical behavior of simple fluids, such as argon, is seen to be approached asymptotically. For the bent models, decreasing the bond angle turns the model essentially into a polar diatomic fluid in which the particles form linear molecular arrangements; as a consequence, characteristic features of the corresponding-states behavior of hydrogen halides emerge.

Mathematical models and methods of assisting state subsidy distribution at the regional level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bondarenko, Yu V.; Azarnova, T. V.; Kashirina, I. L.; Goroshko, I. V.

2018-03-01

One of the most common forms of state support in the world is subsidization. By providing direct financial support to businesses, local authorities get an opportunity to set certain performance targets. Successful achievement of such targets depends not only on the amount of the budgetary allocations, but also on the distribution mechanisms adopted by the regional authorities. Analysis of the existing mechanisms of subsidies distribution in Russian regions shows that in most cases the choice of subsidy calculation formula and its parameters depends on the experts’ subjective opinion. The authors offer a new approach to assisting subsidy distribution at the regional level, which is based on mathematical models and methods, allowing to evaluate the influence of subsidy distribution on the region’s social and economic development. The results of calculations were discussed with the regional administration representatives who confirmed their significance for decision-making in the sphere of state control.

Association of suicide rates, gun ownership, conservatism and individual suicide risk.

PubMed

Kposowa, Augustine J

2013-09-01

The purpose of the study was to examine the association of suicide rates, firearm ownership, political conservatism, religious integration at the state level, and individual suicide risk. Social structural and social learning and social integration theories were theoretical frameworks employed. It was hypothesized that higher suicide rates, higher state firearm availability, and state conservatism elevate individual suicide risk. Data were pooled from the Multiple Cause of Death Files. Multilevel logistic regression models were fitted to all deaths occurring in 2000 through 2004 by suicide. The state suicide rate significantly elevated individual suicide risk (AOR = 1.042, CI = 1.037, 1.046). Firearm availability at the state level was associated with significantly higher odds of individual suicide (AOR = 1.004, CI = 1.003, 1.006). State political conservatism elevated the odds of individual suicides (AOR = 1.005, CI = 1.003, 1.007), while church membership at the state level reduced individual odds of suicide (AOR = 0.995, CI = 0.993, 0.996). The results held even after controlling for socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level. It was concluded that the observed association between individual suicide odds and national suicide rates, and firearm ownership cannot be discounted. Future research ought to focus on integrating individual level data and contextual variables when testing for the impact of firearm ownership. Support was found for social learning and social integration theories.

The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States, 1981–2010

PubMed Central

Ross, Craig S.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We examined the relationship between levels of household firearm ownership, as measured directly and by a proxy—the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm—and age-adjusted firearm homicide rates at the state level. Methods. We conducted a negative binomial regression analysis of panel data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting Systems database on gun ownership and firearm homicide rates across all 50 states during 1981 to 2010. We determined fixed effects for year, accounted for clustering within states with generalized estimating equations, and controlled for potential state-level confounders. Results. Gun ownership was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates (incidence rate ratio = 1.009; 95% confidence interval = 1.004, 1.014). This model indicated that for each percentage point increase in gun ownership, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.9%. Conclusions. We observed a robust correlation between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates. Although we could not determine causation, we found that states with higher rates of gun ownership had disproportionately large numbers of deaths from firearm-related homicides. PMID:24028252

US State-level income inequality and risks of heart attack and coronary risk behaviors: longitudinal findings.

PubMed

Pabayo, Roman; Kawachi, Ichiro; Gilman, Stephen E

2015-07-01

To examine prospectively the association between US state income inequality and incidence of heart attack. We used data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (n = 34,445). Respondents completed interviews at baseline (2001-2002) and follow-up (2004-2005). Weighted multilevel modeling was used to determine if US state-level income inequality (measured by the Gini coefficient) at baseline was a predictor of heart attack during follow-up, controlling for individual-level and state-level covariates. In comparison to residents of US states in the lowest quartile of income inequality, those living in the second [Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 1.71, 95 % CI 1.16-2.53)], third (AOR = 1.81, 95 % CI 1.28-2.57), and fourth (AOR = 2.04, 95 % CI 1.26-3.29) quartiles were more likely to have a heart attack. Similar findings were obtained when we excluded those who had a heart attack prior to baseline. This study is one of the first to empirically show the longitudinal relationship between income inequality and coronary heart disease. Living in a state with higher income inequality increases the risk for heart attack among US adults.

Markov-chain model of classified atomistic transition states for discrete kinetic Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Numazawa, Satoshi; Smith, Roger

2011-10-01

Classical harmonic transition state theory is considered and applied in discrete lattice cells with hierarchical transition levels. The scheme is then used to determine transitions that can be applied in a lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) atomistic simulation model. The model results in an effective reduction of KMC simulation steps by utilizing a classification scheme of transition levels for thermally activated atomistic diffusion processes. Thermally activated atomistic movements are considered as local transition events constrained in potential energy wells over certain local time periods. These processes are represented by Markov chains of multidimensional Boolean valued functions in three-dimensional lattice space. The events inhibited by the barriers under a certain level are regarded as thermal fluctuations of the canonical ensemble and accepted freely. Consequently, the fluctuating system evolution process is implemented as a Markov chain of equivalence class objects. It is shown that the process can be characterized by the acceptance of metastable local transitions. The method is applied to a problem of Au and Ag cluster growth on a rippled surface. The simulation predicts the existence of a morphology-dependent transition time limit from a local metastable to stable state for subsequent cluster growth by accretion. Excellent agreement with observed experimental results is obtained.

Nature of the Kπ = 4+ bands in the Os isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrett, P. E.; Phillips, A. A.; Bettermann, L.; Braun, N.; Burke, D. G.; Demand, G. A.; Faestermann, T.; Finlay, P.; Green, K. L.; Hertenberger, R.; Leach, K. G.; Krücken, R.; Schumaker, M. A.; Svensson, C. E.; Wirth, H.-F.; Wong, J.

2008-05-01

Levels in 186,188Os have been investigated using the (3He,d) reaction with 30 MeV 3He beams. Absolute level-population cross sections have been determined, and angular distributions measured between 5° and 50°. The 43+ levels are observed to be some of the strongest populated states below 2 MeV excitation energy, and the magnitudes of the 5/2+[402]π+3/2+[402]π configuration extracted are in line with quasiparticle-phonon model predictions which state that the lowest-lying Kπ = 4+ band is predominantly a hexadecapole excitation.

Simultaneous multi-state stimulated emission in quantum dot lasers: experiment and analytical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korenev, V. V.; Savelyev, A. V.; Zhukov, A. E.; Omelchenko, A. V.; Maximov, M. V.; Shernyakov, Yu. M.

2012-06-01

The theoretical investigation of the double-state lasing phenomena in InAs/InGaAs quantum dot lasers has been carried out. The new mechanism of the ground-state lasing quenching, which takes place in quantum dot (QD) laser operating in double-state lasing regime at high pump level, was proposed. The difference between electron and hole capture rates causes the depletion of the hole levels and consequently leads to the decrease of an output lasing power via QD ground state with the growth of injection. Moreover, it was shown that the hole-to-electron capture rates ratio strongly affects both the light-current curve and the key laser parameters. The model of the simultaneous lasing through the ground and excited QD states was developed which allows to describe the observed quenching quantitatively.

Medicaid payment rates, case-mix reimbursement, and nursing home staffing--1996-2004.

PubMed

Feng, Zhanlian; Grabowski, David C; Intrator, Orna; Zinn, Jacqueline; Mor, Vincent

2008-01-01

We examined the impact of state Medicaid payment rates and case-mix reimbursement on direct care staffing levels in US nursing homes. We used a recent time series of national nursing home data from the Online Survey Certification and Reporting system for 1996-2004, merged with annual state Medicaid payment rates and case-mix reimbursement information. A 5-category response measure of total staffing levels was defined according to expert recommended thresholds, and examined in a multinomial logistic regression model. Facility fixed-effects models were estimated separately for Registered Nurse (RN), Licensed Practical Nurse (LPN), and Certified Nurse Aide (CNA) staffing levels measured as average hours per resident day. Higher Medicaid payment rates were associated with increases in total staffing levels to meet a higher recommended threshold. However, these gains in overall staffing were accompanied by a reduction of RN staffing and an increase in both LPN and CNA staffing levels. Under case-mix reimbursement, the likelihood of nursing homes achieving higher recommended staffing thresholds decreased, as did levels of professional staffing. Independent of the effects of state, market, and facility characteristics, there was a significant downward trend in RN staffing and an upward trend in both LPN and CNA staffing. Although overall staffing may increase in response to more generous Medicaid reimbursement, it may not translate into improvements in the skill mix of staff. Adjusting for reimbursement levels and resident acuity, total staffing has not increased after the implementation of case-mix reimbursement.

Semantic Image Segmentation with Contextual Hierarchical Models.

PubMed

Seyedhosseini, Mojtaba; Tasdizen, Tolga

2016-05-01

Semantic segmentation is the problem of assigning an object label to each pixel. It unifies the image segmentation and object recognition problems. The importance of using contextual information in semantic segmentation frameworks has been widely realized in the field. We propose a contextual framework, called contextual hierarchical model (CHM), which learns contextual information in a hierarchical framework for semantic segmentation. At each level of the hierarchy, a classifier is trained based on downsampled input images and outputs of previous levels. Our model then incorporates the resulting multi-resolution contextual information into a classifier to segment the input image at original resolution. This training strategy allows for optimization of a joint posterior probability at multiple resolutions through the hierarchy. Contextual hierarchical model is purely based on the input image patches and does not make use of any fragments or shape examples. Hence, it is applicable to a variety of problems such as object segmentation and edge detection. We demonstrate that CHM performs at par with state-of-the-art on Stanford background and Weizmann horse datasets. It also outperforms state-of-the-art edge detection methods on NYU depth dataset and achieves state-of-the-art on Berkeley segmentation dataset (BSDS 500).

Family Background Buys an Education in Minnesota but Not in Sweden

PubMed Central

Johnson, Wendy; Deary, Ian J.; Silventoinen, Karri; Tynelius, Per; Rasmussen, Finn

2010-01-01

Educational attainment, the highest degree or level of schooling obtained, is associated with important life outcomes, at both the individual level and the group level. Because of this, and because education is expensive, the allocation of education across society is an important social issue. A dynamic quantitative environmental-genetic model can help document the effects of social allocation patterns. We used this model to compare the moderating effect of general intelligence on the environmental and genetic factors that influence educational attainment in Sweden and the U.S. state of Minnesota. Patterns of genetic influence on educational outcomes were similar in these two regions, but patterns of shared environmental influence differed markedly. In Sweden, shared environmental influence on educational attainment was particularly important for people of high intelligence, whereas in Minnesota, shared environmental influences on educational attainment were particularly important for people of low intelligence. This difference may be the result of differing access to education: state-supported access (on the basis of ability) to a uniform higher-education system in Sweden, versus family-supported access to a more diverse higher-education system in the United States. PMID:20679521

Family background buys an education in Minnesota but not in Sweden.

PubMed

Johnson, Wendy; Deary, Ian J; Silventoinen, Karri; Tynelius, Per; Rasmussen, Finn

2010-09-01

Educational attainment, the highest degree or level of schooling obtained, is associated with important life outcomes, at both the individual level and the group level. Because of this, and because education is expensive, the allocation of education across society is an important social issue. A dynamic quantitative environmental-genetic model can help document the effects of social allocation patterns. We used this model to compare the moderating effect of general intelligence on the environmental and genetic factors that influence educational attainment in Sweden and the U.S. state of Minnesota. Patterns of genetic influence on educational outcomes were similar in these two regions, but patterns of shared environmental influence differed markedly. In Sweden, shared environmental influence on educational attainment was particularly important for people of high intelligence, whereas in Minnesota, shared environmental influences on educational attainment were particularly important for people of low intelligence. This difference may be the result of differing access to education: state-supported access (on the basis of ability) to a uniform higher-education system in Sweden versus family-supported access to a more diverse higher-education system in the United States.

Maintaining rigor in research: flaws in a recent study and a reanalysis of the relationship between state abortion laws and maternal mortality in Mexico.

PubMed

Darney, Blair G; Saavedra-Avendano, Biani; Lozano, Rafael

2017-01-01

A recent publication [Koch E, Chireau M, Pliego F, Stanford J, Haddad S, Calhoun B, Aracena P, Bravo M, Gatica S, Thorp J. Abortion legislation, maternal healthcare, fertility, female literacy, sanitation, violence against women and maternal deaths: a natural experiment in 32 Mexican states. BMJ Open 2015;5(2):e006013] claimed that Mexican states with more restrictive abortion laws had lower levels of maternal mortality. Our objectives are to replicate the analysis, reanalyze the data and offer a critique of the key flaws of the Koch study. We used corrected maternal mortality data (2006-2013), live births, and state-level indicators of poverty. We replicate the published analysis. We then reclassified state-level exposure to abortion on demand based on actual availability of abortion (Mexico City versus the other 31 states) and test the association of abortion access and the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) using descriptives over time, pooled chi-square tests and regression models. We included 256 state-year observations. We did not find significant differences in MMR between Mexico City (MMR=49.1) and the 31 states (MMR=44.6; p=.44). Using Koch's classification of states, we replicated published differences of higher MMR where abortion is more available. We found a significant, negative association between MMR and availability of abortion in the same multivariable models as Koch, but using our state classification (beta=-22.49, 95% CI=-38.9; -5.99). State-level poverty remains highly correlated with MMR. Koch makes errors in methodology and interpretation, making false causal claims about abortion law and MMR. MMR is falling most rapidly in Mexico City, but our main study limitation is an inability to draw causal inference about abortion law or access and maternal mortality. We need rigorous evidence about the health impacts of increasing access to safe abortion worldwide. Transparency and integrity in research is crucial, as well as perhaps even more in politically contested topics such as abortion. Rigorous evidence about the health impacts of increasing access to safe abortion worldwide is needed. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Geographic Variation of Overweight and Obesity among Women in Nigeria: A Case for Nutritional Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Kandala, Ngianga-Bakwin; Stranges, Saverio

2014-01-01

Background Nutritional research in sub-Saharan Africa has primarily focused on under-nutrition. However, there is evidence of an ongoing nutritional transition in these settings. This study aimed to examine the geographic variation of overweight and obesity prevalence at the state-level among women in Nigeria, while accounting for individual-level risk factors. Methods The analysis was based on the 2008 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), including 27,967 women aged 15–49 years. Individual data were collected on socio-demographics, but were aggregated to the country's states. We used a Bayesian geo-additive mixed model to map the geographic distribution of overweight and obesity at the state-level, accounting for individual-level risk factors. Results The overall prevalence of combined overweight and obesity (body mass index ≥25) was 20.9%. In multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, higher education [odds ratio (OR) & 95% Credible Region (CR): 1.68 (1.38, 2.00)], higher wealth index [3.45 (2.98, 4.05)], living in urban settings [1.24 (1.14, 1.36)] and increasing age were all significantly associated with a higher prevalence of overweight/obesity. There was also a striking variation in overweight/obesity prevalence across ethnic groups and state of residence, the highest being in Cross River State, in south-eastern Nigeria [2.32 (1.62, 3.40)], the lowest in Osun State in south-western Nigeria [0.48 (0.36, 0.61)]. Conclusions This study suggests distinct geographic patterns in the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity among Nigerian women, as well as the role of demographic, socio-economic and environmental factors in the ongoing nutritional transition in these settings. PMID:24979753

Uncertainties in Episodic Ozone Modeling Stemming from Uncertainties in the Meteorological Fields.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, Jhumoor; Trivikrama Rao, S.

2001-02-01

This paper examines the uncertainty associated with photochemical modeling using the Variable-Grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V) with two different prognostic meteorological models. The meteorological fields for ozone episodes that occurred during 17-20 June, 12-15 July, and 30 July-2 August in the summer of 1995 were derived from two meteorological models, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Fifth-Generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The simulated ozone concentrations from the two photochemical modeling systems, namely, RAMS/UAM-V and MM5/UAM-V, are compared with each other and with ozone observations from several monitoring sites in the eastern United States. The overall results indicate that neither modeling system performs significantly better than the other in reproducing the observed ozone concentrations. The results reveal that there is a significant variability, about 20% at the 95% level of confidence, in the modeled 1-h ozone concentration maxima from one modeling system to the other for a given episode. The model-to-model variability in the simulated ozone levels is for most part attributable to the unsystematic type of errors. The directionality for emission controls (i.e., NOx versus VOC sensitivity) is also evaluated with UAM-V using hypothetical emission reductions. The results reveal that not only the improvement in ozone but also the VOC-sensitive and NOx-sensitive regimes are influenced by the differences in the meteorological fields. Both modeling systems indicate that a large portion of the eastern United States is NOx limited, but there are model-to-model and episode-to-episode differences at individual grid cells regarding the efficacy of emission reductions.

Developing and testing a positive theory of instrument choice: Renewable energy policy in the fifty American states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciocirlan, Cristina E.

The environmental economics literature consistently suggests that properly designed and implemented economic incentives are superior to command-and-control regulation in reducing pollution. Economic incentives, such as green taxes, cap-and-trade programs, tax incentives, are able to reduce pollution in a cost-effective manner, provide flexibility to industry and stimulate innovation in cleaner technologies. In the past few decades, both federal and state governments have shown increased use of economic incentives in environmental policy. Some states have embraced them in an active manner, while others have failed to do so. This research uses a three-step analysis. First, it asks why some states employ more economic incentives than others to stimulate consumption of renewable energy by the residential, commercial and industrial sectors. Second, it asks why some states employ stronger incentives than others. And third, it asks why certain states employ certain instruments, such as electricity surcharges, cap-and-trade programs, tax incentives or grants, while others do not. The first two analyses were conducted using factor analysis and multiple regression analysis, while the third analysis employed logistic regression models to analyze the data. Data for all three analyses were obtained from a combination of primary and secondary sources. To address these questions, a theory of instrument choice at the state level, which includes both internal and external determinants of policy-making, was developed and tested. The state level of analysis was chosen. States have proven to be pioneers in designing policies to address greenhouse gases (see, for instance, the recent cap-and-trade legislation passed in California). The theory was operationalized with the help of four models: needs/responsiveness, interest group influence, professionalism/capacity and innovation-and-diffusion. The needs/responsiveness model suggests that states tend to choose more and stronger economic incentives when they are more dependent on conventional sources of energy, such as coal, oil and gas or when they have the potential to produce renewable energy. The interest group influence model suggests that instrument choice is ultimately a political decision, most likely to benefit some groups more than others. The professionalism/capacity model posits that states with more professional legislatures, with legislators who make more use of policy analysis, with more capacity to generate nonpartisan policy research and with larger agencies tend to employ more and stronger instruments to stimulate renewable energy consumption and production. And last, the innovation-and-diffusion model suggests that states with a proven innovation record in climate change tend to employ more and stronger economic incentives than states without such record. Also, this model explains states' instrument choice decisions as a function of the choices made by their neighbors.

Transition probabilities in neutron-rich Se,8280 and the role of the ν g9 /2 orbital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litzinger, J.; Blazhev, A.; Dewald, A.; Didierjean, F.; Duchêne, G.; Fransen, C.; Lozeva, R.; Verney, D.; de Angelis, G.; Bazzacco, D.; Birkenbach, B.; Bottoni, S.; Bracco, A.; Braunroth, T.; Cederwall, B.; Corradi, L.; Crespi, F. C. L.; Désesquelles, P.; Eberth, J.; Ellinger, E.; Farnea, E.; Fioretto, E.; Gernhäuser, R.; Goasduff, A.; Görgen, A.; Gottardo, A.; Grebosz, J.; Hackstein, M.; Hess, H.; Ibrahim, F.; Jolie, J.; Jungclaus, A.; Kolos, K.; Korten, W.; Leoni, S.; Lunardi, S.; Maj, A.; Menegazzo, R.; Mengoni, D.; Michelagnoli, C.; Mijatovic, T.; Million, B.; Möller, O.; Modamio, V.; Montagnoli, G.; Montanari, D.; Morales, A. I.; Napoli, D. R.; Niikura, M.; Pietralla, N.; Pollarolo, G.; Pullia, A.; Quintana, B.; Recchia, F.; Reiter, P.; Rosso, D.; Sahin, E.; Salsac, M. D.; Scarlassara, F.; Söderström, P.-A.; Stefanini, A. M.; Stezowski, O.; Szilner, S.; Theisen, Ch.; Valiente-Dobón, J. J.; Vandone, V.; Vogt, A.

2018-04-01

Transition probabilities of intermediate-spin yrast and non-yrast excitations in Se,8280 were investigated in a recoil distance Doppler-shift (RDDS) experiment performed at the Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Laboratori Nazionali di Legnaro. The Cologne Plunger device for deep inelastic scattering was used for the RDDS technique and was combined with the AGATA Demonstrator array for the γ -ray detection and coupled to the PRISMA magnetic spectrometer for an event-by-event particle identification. In 80Se, the level lifetimes of the yrast (61+) and (81+) states and of a non-yrast band feeding the yrast 41+ state are determined. A spin and parity assignment of the head of this sideband is discussed based on the experimental results and supported by large-scale shell-model calculations. In 82Se, the level lifetimes of the yrast 61+ state and the yrare 42+ state and lifetime limits of the yrast (101+) state and of the 51- state are determined. Although the experimental results contain large uncertainties, they are interpreted with care in terms of large-scale shell-model calculations using the effective interactions JUN45 and jj44b. The excited states' wave functions are investigated and discussed with respect to the role of the neutron g9 /2 orbital.

Measurements of population densities of metastable and resonant levels of argon using laser induced fluorescence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nikolić, M.; Newton, J.; Sukenik, C. I.

2015-01-14

We present a new approach to measure population densities of Ar I metastable and resonant excited states in low temperature Ar plasmas at pressures higher than 1 Torr. This approach combines the time resolved laser induced fluorescence technique with the kinetic model of Ar. The kinetic model of Ar is based on calculating the population rates of metastable and resonant levels by including contributions from the processes that affect population densities of Ar I excited states. In particular, we included collisional quenching processes between atoms in the ground state and excited states, since we are investigating plasma at higher pressures. Wemore » also determined time resolved population densities of Ar I 2 p excited states by employing optical emission spectroscopy technique. Time resolved Ar I excited state populations are presented for the case of the post-discharge of the supersonic flowing microwave discharge at pressures of 1.7 and 2.3 Torr. The experimental set-up consists of a pulsed tunable dye laser operating in the near infrared region and a cylindrical resonance cavity operating in TE{sub 111} mode at 2.45 GHz. Results show that time resolved population densities of Ar I metastable and resonant states oscillate with twice the frequency of the discharge.« less

Composite fermion theory for bosonic quantum Hall states on lattices.

PubMed

Möller, G; Cooper, N R

2009-09-04

We study the ground states of the Bose-Hubbard model in a uniform magnetic field, motivated by the physics of cold atomic gases on lattices at high vortex density. Mapping the bosons to composite fermions (CF) leads to the prediction of quantum Hall fluids that have no counterpart in the continuum. We construct trial states for these phases and test numerically the predictions of the CF model. We establish the existence of strongly correlated phases beyond those in the continuum limit and provide evidence for a wider scope of the composite fermion approach beyond its application to the lowest Landau level.

Dealing with the health state 'dead' when using discrete choice experiments to obtain values for EQ-5D-5L heath states.

PubMed

Ramos-Goñi, Juan Manuel; Rivero-Arias, Oliver; Errea, María; Stolk, Elly A; Herdman, Michael; Cabasés, Juan Manuel

2013-07-01

To evaluate two different methods to obtain a dead (0)--full health (1) scale for EQ-5D-5L valuation studies when using discrete choice (DC) modeling. The study was carried out among 400 respondents from Barcelona who were representative of the Spanish population in terms of age, sex, and level of education. The DC design included 50 pairs of health states in five blocks. Participants were forced to choose between two EQ-5D-5L states (A and B). Two extra questions concerned whether A and B were considered worse than dead. Each participant performed ten choice exercises. In addition, values were collected using lead-time trade-off (lead-time TTO), for which 100 states in ten blocks were selected. Each participant performed five lead-time TTO exercises. These consisted of DC models offering the health state 'dead' as one of the choices--for which all participants' responses were used (DCdead)--and a model that included only the responses of participants who chose at least one state as worse than dead (WTD) (DCWTD). The study also estimated DC models rescaled with lead-time TTO data and a lead-time TTO linear model. The DC(dead) and DCWTD models produced relatively similar results, although the coefficients in the DCdead model were slightly lower. The DC model rescaled with lead-time TTO data produced higher utility decrements. Lead-time TTO produced the highest utility decrements. The incorporation of the state 'dead' in the DC models produces results in concordance with DC models that do not include 'dead'.

Uncertainty and inference in the world of paleoecological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLachlan, J. S.; Dawson, A.; Dietze, M.; Finley, M.; Hooten, M.; Itter, M.; Jackson, S. T.; Marlon, J. R.; Raiho, A.; Tipton, J.; Williams, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy data in paleoecology and paleoclimatology share a common set of biases and uncertainties: spatiotemporal error associated with the taphonomic processes of deposition, preservation, and dating; calibration error between proxy data and the ecosystem states of interest; and error in the interpolation of calibrated estimates across space and time. Researchers often account for this daunting suite of challenges by applying qualitave expert judgment: inferring the past states of ecosystems and assessing the level of uncertainty in those states subjectively. The effectiveness of this approach can be seen by the extent to which future observations confirm previous assertions. Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical approaches allow an alternative approach to accounting for multiple uncertainties in paleo data. HB estimates of ecosystem state formally account for each of the common uncertainties listed above. HB approaches can readily incorporate additional data, and data of different types into estimates of ecosystem state. And HB estimates of ecosystem state, with associated uncertainty, can be used to constrain forecasts of ecosystem dynamics based on mechanistic ecosystem models using data assimilation. Decisions about how to structure an HB model are also subjective, which creates a parallel framework for deciding how to interpret data from the deep past.Our group, the Paleoecological Observatory Network (PalEON), has applied hierarchical Bayesian statistics to formally account for uncertainties in proxy based estimates of past climate, fire, primary productivity, biomass, and vegetation composition. Our estimates often reveal new patterns of past ecosystem change, which is an unambiguously good thing, but we also often estimate a level of uncertainty that is uncomfortably high for many researchers. High levels of uncertainty are due to several features of the HB approach: spatiotemporal smoothing, the formal aggregation of multiple types of uncertainty, and a coarseness in statistical models of taphonomic process. Each of these features provides useful opportunities for statisticians and data-generating researchers to assess what we know about the signal and the noise in paleo data and to improve inference about past changes in ecosystem state.

Income inequality and mortality: a multilevel prospective study of 521 248 individuals in 50 US states.

PubMed

Backlund, Eric; Rowe, Geoff; Lynch, John; Wolfson, Michael C; Kaplan, George A; Sorlie, Paul D

2007-06-01

Some of the most consistent evidence in favour of an association between income inequality and health has been among US states. However, in multilevel studies of mortality, only two out of five studies have reported a positive relationship with income inequality after adjustment for the compositional characteristics of the state's inhabitants. In this study, we attempt to clarify these mixed results by analysing the relationship within age-sex groups and by applying a previously unused analytical method to a database that contains more deaths than any multilevel study to date. The US National Longitudinal Mortality Study (NLMS) was used to model the relationship between income inequality in US states and mortality using both a novel and previously used methodologies that fall into the general framework of multilevel regression. We adjust age-sex specific models for nine socioeconomic and demographic variables at the individual level and percentage black and region at the state level. The preponderance of evidence from this study suggests that 1990 state-level income inequality is associated with a 40% differential in state level mortality rates (95% CI = 26-56%) for men 25-64 years and a 14% (95% CI = 3-27%) differential for women 25-64 years after adjustment for compositional factors. No such relationship was found for men or women over 65. The relationship between income inequality and mortality is only robust to adjustment for compositional factors in men and women under 65. This explains why income inequality is not a major driver of mortality trends in the United States because most deaths occur at ages 65 and over. This analysis does suggest, however, the certain causes of death that occur primarily in the population under 65 may be associated with income inequality. Comparison of analytical techniques also suggests coefficients for income inequality in previous multilevel mortality studies may be biased, but further research is needed to provide a definitive answer.

The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

2017-06-01

Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

Advanced methods for modeling water-levels and estimating drawdowns with SeriesSEE, an Excel add-in

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halford, Keith; Garcia, C. Amanda; Fenelon, Joe; Mirus, Benjamin B.

2012-12-21

Water-level modeling is used for multiple-well aquifer tests to reliably differentiate pumping responses from natural water-level changes in wells, or “environmental fluctuations.” Synthetic water levels are created during water-level modeling and represent the summation of multiple component fluctuations, including those caused by environmental forcing and pumping. Pumping signals are modeled by transforming step-wise pumping records into water-level changes by using superimposed Theis functions. Water-levels can be modeled robustly with this Theis-transform approach because environmental fluctuations and pumping signals are simulated simultaneously. Water-level modeling with Theis transforms has been implemented in the program SeriesSEE, which is a Microsoft® Excel add-in. Moving average, Theis, pneumatic-lag, and gamma functions transform time series of measured values into water-level model components in SeriesSEE. Earth tides and step transforms are additional computed water-level model components. Water-level models are calibrated by minimizing a sum-of-squares objective function where singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization stabilize results. Drawdown estimates from a water-level model are the summation of all Theis transforms minus residual differences between synthetic and measured water levels. The accuracy of drawdown estimates is limited primarily by noise in the data sets, not the Theis-transform approach. Drawdowns much smaller than environmental fluctuations have been detected across major fault structures, at distances of more than 1 mile from the pumping well, and with limited pre-pumping and recovery data at sites across the United States. In addition to water-level modeling, utilities exist in SeriesSEE for viewing, cleaning, manipulating, and analyzing time-series data.

Hot N2 in Titan's upper atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavvas, P.; Yelle, R. V.; Heays, A.; Campbell, L.; Brunger, M. J.; Galand, M.; Vuitton, V.

2015-10-01

We present a detailed model for the vibrational population of all non pre-dissociating excited electronic states of N2, as well as for the ground and ionic states,in Titan's atmosphere. Our model includes the detailed energy deposition calculations presented in the past [1] as well as the more recent developments in the high resolution N2 photo-absorption cross sections that allow us to calculate photo-excitation rates for different vibrational levels of singlet nitrogen states, and provide information for their pre-dissociation yields.In addition, we consider the effect of collisions and chemical reactions in the population of the different states. Our results demonstrate that a significant population of vibrationally excited ground state N2 survives in Titan's upper atmosphere. This hot N2population can improve the agreement between models and observations for the emission of the c'4 state that is significantly affected by resonant scattering. Moreover we discuss the potential implications of the vibrationally excited population on the ionospheric densities.

Monte Carlo calculations of diatomic molecule gas flows including rotational mode excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoshikawa, K. K.; Itikawa, Y.

1976-01-01

The direct simulation Monte Carlo method was used to solve the Boltzmann equation for flows of an internally excited nonequilibrium gas, namely, of rotationally excited homonuclear diatomic nitrogen. The semi-classical transition probability model of Itikawa was investigated for its ability to simulate flow fields far from equilibrium. The behavior of diatomic nitrogen was examined for several different nonequilibrium initial states that are subjected to uniform mean flow without boundary interactions. A sample of 1000 model molecules was observed as the gas relaxed to a steady state starting from three specified initial states. The initial states considered are: (1) complete equilibrium, (2) nonequilibrium, equipartition (all rotational energy states are assigned the mean energy level obtained at equilibrium with a Boltzmann distribution at the translational temperature), and (3) nonequipartition (the mean rotational energy is different from the equilibrium mean value with respect to the translational energy states). In all cases investigated the present model satisfactorily simulated the principal features of the relaxation effects in nonequilibrium flow of diatomic molecules.

ESTIMATING GROUND LEVEL PM 2.5 IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES USING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING

EPA Science Inventory

An empirical model based on the regression between daily average final particle (PM2.5) concentrations and aerosol optical thickness (AOT) measurements from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was developed and tested using data from the eastern United States during ...

Digital Roundup

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Horn, Michael B.

2013-01-01

State policy is crucial to the spread of digital-learning opportunities at the elementary and secondary level. A review of recent legislative action reveals policies that are constantly in flux and differ quite markedly from one state to another. Some have hoped for model digital-learning legislation that could handle all the various issues…

User's guide: RPGrow$: a red pine growth and analysis spreadsheet for the Lake States.

Treesearch

Carol A. Hyldahl; Gerald H. Grossman

1993-01-01

Describes RPGrow$, a stand-level, interactive spreadsheet for projecting growth and yield and estimating financial returns of red pine plantations in the Lake States. This spreadsheet is based on published growth models for red pine. Financial analyses are based on discounted cash flow methods.

Openness in Resource Planning in State Universities. AIR Forum 1980 Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delmont, Timothy J.

Managerial approaches to budget planning for state universities were investigated using an open budgeting model that emphasizes the function of communication, technical analysis, and participative decision making. System-level and central officers in 32 research universities were surveyed to determine whether they used and endorsed technical…

PAINeT: An object-oriented software package for simulations of flow-field, transport coefficients and flux terms in non-equilibrium gas mixture flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istomin, V. A.

2018-05-01

The software package Planet Atmosphere Investigator of Non-equilibrium Thermodynamics (PAINeT) has been devel-oped for studying the non-equilibrium effects associated with electronic excitation, chemical reactions and ionization. These studies are necessary for modeling process in shock tubes, in high enthalpy flows, in nozzles or jet engines, in combustion and explosion processes, in modern plasma-chemical and laser technologies. The advantages and possibilities of the package implementation are stated. Within the framework of the package implementation, based on kinetic theory approximations (one-temperature and state-to-state approaches), calculations are carried out, and the limits of applicability of a simplified description of shock-heated air flows and any other mixtures chosen by the user are given. Using kinetic theory algorithms, a numerical calculation of the heat fluxes and relaxation terms can be performed, which is necessary for further comparison of engineering simulation with experi-mental data. The influence of state-to-state distributions over electronic energy levels on the coefficients of thermal conductivity, diffusion, heat fluxes and diffusion velocities of the components of various gas mixtures behind shock waves is studied. Using the software package the accuracy of different approximations of the kinetic theory of gases is estimated. As an example state-resolved atomic ionized mixture of N/N+/O/O+/e- is considered. It is shown that state-resolved diffusion coefficients of neutral and ionized species vary from level to level. Comparing results of engineering applications with those given by PAINeT, recommendations for adequate models selection are proposed.

Stakeholder involvement in agri-environmental policy making--learning from a local- and a state-level approach in Germany.

PubMed

Prager, Katrin; Freese, Jan

2009-02-01

Recent European regulations for rural development emphasise the requirement to involve stakeholder groups and other appropriate bodies in the policy-making process. This paper presents two cases involving stakeholder participation in agri-environmental development and policy making, targeted at different policy-making levels. One study was undertaken in Lower Saxony where a local partnership developed and tested an agri-environmental prescription, which was later included in the state's menu of agri-environmental schemes. In Sachsen-Anhalt, state-facilitated stakeholder workshops including a mathematical model were used to optimise the programme planning and budget allocation at the state level. Both studies aimed at improving the acceptance of agri-environmental schemes. The authors gauge the effectiveness of the two approaches and discuss what lessons can be learned. The experience suggests that the approaches can complement one another and could also be applied to rural policy making.

State-Level Marriage Equality and the Health of Same-Sex Couples

PubMed Central

Acosta, Katie L.; Wright, Eric R.

2015-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the association between the health of people in same-sex relationships and the degree and nature of the legal recognition of same-sex relationships offered in the states in which they resided. Methods. We conducted secondary data analyses on the 2010 to 2013 Current Population Survey and publicly available data from Freedom to Marry, Inc. We estimated ordered logistic regression models in a 4-level framework to assess the impact of states’ legal stances toward same-sex marriage on self-assessed health. Results. Our findings indicated, relative to states with antigay constitutional amendments, that same-sex couples living in states with legally sanctioned marriage reported higher levels of self-assessed health. Conclusions. Our findings suggested that full legal recognition of same-sex relationships through marriage might be an important legal and policy strategy for improving the health of same-sex couples. PMID:25880959

Many-level multilevel structural equation modeling: An efficient evaluation strategy.

PubMed

Pritikin, Joshua N; Hunter, Michael D; von Oertzen, Timo; Brick, Timothy R; Boker, Steven M

2017-01-01

Structural equation models are increasingly used for clustered or multilevel data in cases where mixed regression is too inflexible. However, when there are many levels of nesting, these models can become difficult to estimate. We introduce a novel evaluation strategy, Rampart, that applies an orthogonal rotation to the parts of a model that conform to commonly met requirements. This rotation dramatically simplifies fit evaluation in a way that becomes more potent as the size of the data set increases. We validate and evaluate the implementation using a 3-level latent regression simulation study. Then we analyze data from a state-wide child behavioral health measure administered by the Oklahoma Department of Human Services. We demonstrate the efficiency of Rampart compared to other similar software using a latent factor model with a 5-level decomposition of latent variance. Rampart is implemented in OpenMx, a free and open source software.

Validity of the two-level approximation in the interaction of few-cycle light pulses with atoms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cheng Jing; Zhou Jianying

2003-04-01

The validity of the two-level approximation (TLA) in the interaction of atoms with few-cycle light pulses is studied by investigating a simple (V)-type three-level atom model. Even the transition frequency between the ground state and the third level is far away from the spectrum of the pulse; this additional transition can make the TLA inaccuracy. For a sufficiently large transition frequency or a weak coupling between the ground state and the third level, the TLA is a reasonable approximation and can be used safely. When decreasing the pulse width or increasing the pulse area, the TLA will give rise tomore » non-negligible errors compared with the precise results.« less

Validity of the two-level approximation in the interaction of few-cycle light pulses with atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Jing; Zhou, Jianying

2003-04-01

The validity of the two-level approximation (TLA) in the interaction of atoms with few-cycle light pulses is studied by investigating a simple V-type three-level atom model. Even the transition frequency between the ground state and the third level is far away from the spectrum of the pulse; this additional transition can make the TLA inaccuracy. For a sufficiently large transition frequency or a weak coupling between the ground state and the third level, the TLA is a reasonable approximation and can be used safely. When decreasing the pulse width or increasing the pulse area, the TLA will give rise to non-negligible errors compared with the precise results.

An Improved Maintenance Model for the Simulation of Strategic Airlift Capability.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

developed using SLAM as the primary simulation language. Maintenance manning is modeled at the Air Force Specialty Code level, to allow the possibility of...Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies is one of our primary national objectives, but recent increases in Soviet ground and air forces (Ref 5:100) have...arrive from the United States. Consequently, the primary objective of the United States Air Force mobility program is to be able, by 1982, to double the

Evaluating the All-Ages Lead Model Using SiteSpecific Data: Approaches and Challenges

EPA Science Inventory

Lead (Pb) exposure continues to be a problem in the United States. Even after years of progress in reducing environmental levels, CDC estimates at least 500,000 U.S. children ages 1-5 years have blood Pb levels (BLL) above the CDC reference level of 5 µg/dL. Childhood Pb ex...

Better trauma care. How Maryland does it.

PubMed

Wish, John R; Long, William B; Edlich, Richard F

2005-01-01

In March, 1970, the Maryland State Police, in cooperation with the University of Maryland, started the first statewide airborne transportation system. It was modeled after the army's success in Korea and Vietnam, where battlefield injuries were flown to front-line MASH units. The world's premier statewide medical aviation division was made possible through a cooperative effort between the Maryland State Police Aviation Division and Dr. R Adams Cowley at the University of Maryland Hospital as a public service to the citizens of the state. The Maryland Institute for Emergency Medical Services Systems (MIEMSS) has five components: (1) aircraft, (2) state troopers, (3) system communications (SYSCOM) center, (4) ambulance and fire emergency rescue, and (5) Level I adult and pediatric trauma centers and a regional burn center. The Maryland State Police Aviation Division now has 12 Aerospace Dauphin AS365N helicopters that operate out of eight fixed points throughout the state. Each helicopter has a two-person crew that consists of a pilot and a paramedic. Since 1993, the overall coordination of emergency medical services (EMS) has been under the purview of MIEMSS, an independent executive-level state agency that is governed by an appointed board and advisory council. To ensure stable funding for Maryland's world renowned emergency medical services (EMS) system, including med-evac helicopters, ambulances, fire equipment, rescue squads, and trauma units, a "surcharge" of $13.50 per year is collected with the automobile registration fee where applicable. The SYSCOM center in Baltimore coordinates the helicopter transport to the scene of the accident as well as referral to the specialty care facility: Adult Level I Trauma Center, Pediatric Level I Trauma Center, and Regional Burn Center. An on-the-scene evaluation of this exemplary emergency medical system in Maryland provides further convincing evidence of the performance of the Maryland State Police Aviation Division as they transported an injured child to the Johns Hopkins Pediatric Level I Trauma Center. It is our belief that the model emergency medical system in Maryland, if replicated throughout our nation, would save the lives of the critically injured.

State-Transition Structures in Physics and in Computation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, C. A.

1982-12-01

In order to establish close connections between physical and computational processes, it is assumed that the concepts of “state” and of “transition” are acceptable both to physicists and to computer scientists, at least in an informal way. The aim of this paper is to propose formal definitions of state and transition elements on the basis of very low level physical concepts in such a way that (1) all physically possible computations can be described as embedded in physical processes; (2) the computational aspects of physical processes can be described on a well-defined level of abstraction; (3) the gulf between the continuous models of physics and the discrete models of computer science can be bridged by simple mathematical constructs which may be given a physical interpretation; (4) a combinatorial, nonstatistical definition of “information” can be given on low levels of abstraction which may serve as a basis to derive higher-level concepts of information, e.g., by a statistical or probabilistic approach. Conceivable practical consequences are discussed.

A collisional-radiative model of iron vapour in a thermal arc plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baeva, M.; Uhrlandt, D.; Murphy, A. B.

2017-06-01

A collisional-radiative model for the ground state and fifty effective excited levels of atomic iron, and one level for singly-ionized iron, is set up for technological plasmas. Attention is focused on the population of excited states of atomic iron as a result of excitation, de-excitation, ionization, recombination and spontaneous emission. Effective rate coefficients for ionization and recombination, required in non-equilibrium plasma transport models, are also obtained. The collisional-radiative model is applied to a thermal arc plasma. Input parameters for the collisional-radiative model are provided by a magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a gas-metal welding arc, in which local thermodynamic equilibrium is assumed and the treatment of the transport of metal vapour is based on combined diffusion coefficients. The results clearly identify the conditions in the arc, under which the atomic state distribution satisfies the Boltzmann distribution, with an excitation temperature equal to the plasma temperature. These conditions are met in the central part of the arc, even though a local temperature minimum occurs here. This provides assurance that diagnostic methods based on local thermodynamic equilibrium, in particular those of optical emission spectroscopy, are reliable here. In contrast, deviations from the equilibrium atomic-state distribution are obtained in the near-electrode and arc fringe regions. As a consequence, the temperatures determined from the ratio of line intensities and number densities obtained from the emission coefficient in these regions are questionable. In this situation, the collisional-radiative model can be used as a diagnostic tool to assist in the interpretation of spectroscopic measurements.

Developing an Adequately Specified Model of State Level Student Achievement with Multilevel Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Lawrence

Limitations of using linear, unilevel regression procedures in modeling student achievement are discussed. This study is a part of a broader study that is developing an empirically-based predictive model of variables associated with academic achievement from a multilevel perspective and examining the differences by which parameters are estimated…

Properties of the Multiple Measures in Arizona's Teacher Evaluation Model. REL 2015-050

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lazarev, Valeriy; Newman, Denis; Sharp, Alyssa

2014-01-01

This study explored the relationships among the components of the Arizona Department of Education's new teacher evaluation model, with a particular focus on the extent to which ratings from the state model's teacher observation instrument differentiated higher and lower performance. The study used teacher-level evaluation data collected by the…

Classical Michaelis-Menten and system theory approach to modeling metabolite formation kinetics.

PubMed

Popović, Jovan

2004-01-01

When single doses of drug are administered and kinetics are linear, techniques, which are based on the compartment approach and the linear system theory approach, in modeling the formation of the metabolite from the parent drug are proposed. Unlike the purpose-specific compartment approach, the methodical, conceptual and computational uniformity in modeling various linear biomedical systems is the dominant characteristic of the linear system approach technology. Saturation of the metabolic reaction results in nonlinear kinetics according to the Michaelis-Menten equation. The two compartment open model with Michaelis-Menten elimination kinetics is theorethicaly basic when single doses of drug are administered. To simulate data or to fit real data using this model, one must resort to numerical integration. A biomathematical model for multiple dosage regimen calculations of nonlinear metabolic systems in steady-state and a working example with phenytoin are presented. High correlation between phenytoin steady-state serum levels calculated from individual Km and Vmax values in the 15 adult epileptic outpatients and the observed levels at the third adjustment of phenytoin daily dose (r=0.961, p<0.01) were found.

Models of charge pair generation in organic solar cells.

PubMed

Few, Sheridan; Frost, Jarvist M; Nelson, Jenny

2015-01-28

Efficient charge pair generation is observed in many organic photovoltaic (OPV) heterojunctions, despite nominal electron-hole binding energies which greatly exceed the average thermal energy. Empirically, the efficiency of this process appears to be related to the choice of donor and acceptor materials, the resulting sequence of excited state energy levels and the structure of the interface. In order to establish a suitable physical model for the process, a range of different theoretical studies have addressed the nature and energies of the interfacial states, the energetic profile close to the heterojunction and the dynamics of excited state transitions. In this paper, we review recent developments underpinning the theory of charge pair generation and phenomena, focussing on electronic structure calculations, electrostatic models and approaches to excited state dynamics. We discuss the remaining challenges in achieving a predictive approach to charge generation efficiency.

Recession and Divorce in the United States, 2008-2011

PubMed Central

Cohen, Philip N.

2015-01-01

Recession may increase divorce through a stress mechanism, or reduce divorce by exacerbating cost barriers or strengthening family bonds. After establishing an individual-level model predicting U.S. women's divorce, the paper tests period effects, and whether unemployment and foreclosures are associated with the odds of divorce using the 2008-2011 American Community Survey. Results show a downward spike in the divorce rate after 2008, almost recovering to the expected level by 2011, which suggests a negative recession effect. On the other hand, state foreclosure rates are positively associated with the odds of divorce with individual controls, although this effect is not significant when state fixed effects are introduced. State unemployment rates show no effect on odds of divorce. Future research will have to determine why national divorce odds fell during the recession while state-level economic indicators were not strongly associated with divorce. Exploratory analysis which shows unemployment decreasing divorce odds for those with college degrees, while foreclosures have the opposite effect, provides one possible avenue for such research. PMID:26023246

Resummation of divergent perturbation series: Application to the vibrational states of H2CO molecule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duchko, A. N.; Bykov, A. D.

2015-10-01

Large-order Rayleigh-Schrödinger perturbation theory (RSPT) is applied to the calculation of anharmonic vibrational energy levels of H2CO molecule. We use the model of harmonic oscillators perturbed by anharmonic terms of potential energy. Since the perturbation series typically diverge due to strong couplings, we apply the algebraic approximation technique because of its effectiveness shown earlier by Goodson and Sergeev [J. Chem. Phys. 110, 8205 (1999); ibid. 124, 094111 (2006)] and in our previous articles [A. D. Bykov et al. Opt. Spectrosc. 114, 396 (2013); ibid. 116, 598 (2014)]. To facilitate the resummation of terms contributing to perturbed states, when resonance mixing between states is especially strong and perturbation series diverge very quick, we used repartition of the Hamiltonian by shifting the normal mode frequencies. Energy levels obtained by algebraic approximants were compared with the results of variational calculation. It was found that for low energy states (up to ˜5000 cm-1), algebraic approximants gave accurate values of energy levels, which were in excellent agreement with the variational method. For highly excited states, strong and multiple resonances complicate series resummation, but a suitable change of normal mode frequencies allows one to reduce the resonance mixing and to get accurate energy levels. The theoretical background of the problem of RSPT series divergence is discussed along with its numerical analysis. For these purposes, the vibrational energy is considered as a function of a complex perturbation parameter. Layout and classification of its singularities allow us to model the asymptotic behavior of the perturbation series and prove the robustness of the algorithm.

Resummation of divergent perturbation series: Application to the vibrational states of H2CO molecule.

PubMed

Duchko, A N; Bykov, A D

2015-10-21

Large-order Rayleigh-Schrödinger perturbation theory (RSPT) is applied to the calculation of anharmonic vibrational energy levels of H2CO molecule. We use the model of harmonic oscillators perturbed by anharmonic terms of potential energy. Since the perturbation series typically diverge due to strong couplings, we apply the algebraic approximation technique because of its effectiveness shown earlier by Goodson and Sergeev [J. Chem. Phys. 110, 8205 (1999); ibid. 124, 094111 (2006)] and in our previous articles [A. D. Bykov et al. Opt. Spectrosc. 114, 396 (2013); ibid. 116, 598 (2014)]. To facilitate the resummation of terms contributing to perturbed states, when resonance mixing between states is especially strong and perturbation series diverge very quick, we used repartition of the Hamiltonian by shifting the normal mode frequencies. Energy levels obtained by algebraic approximants were compared with the results of variational calculation. It was found that for low energy states (up to ∼5000 cm(-1)), algebraic approximants gave accurate values of energy levels, which were in excellent agreement with the variational method. For highly excited states, strong and multiple resonances complicate series resummation, but a suitable change of normal mode frequencies allows one to reduce the resonance mixing and to get accurate energy levels. The theoretical background of the problem of RSPT series divergence is discussed along with its numerical analysis. For these purposes, the vibrational energy is considered as a function of a complex perturbation parameter. Layout and classification of its singularities allow us to model the asymptotic behavior of the perturbation series and prove the robustness of the algorithm.

Impacts of National Decarbonization Targets for Subnational Societal Priorities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, W.; Iyer, G.

2017-12-01

Carbon mitigation has well-recognized linkages with other environmental and socioeconomic priorities, such as air pollution, economic development, employment, etc. While climate change is a global issue, many other societal priorities are local concerns. Since local efforts form the pillars of achieving co-benefits and avoiding dis-benefits at the national level, it is critical to go beyond national-level analyses and focus on the synergies and tradeoffs at the subnational level. Here we use the United States as an example to evaluate the impacts of mid-century national-level deep decarbonization target for state-level societal priorities. Based on the Global Change Assessment Model with state-level details for the US (GCAM-USA), we design two mid-century scenarios: A Reference scenario that assumes the U.S. undertakes no additional climate mitigation policy, and a Deep Decarbonization Scenario that assumes the U.S. achieves the NDC goal through 2025 (26-28% reduction relative to 2005 levels) and then follows a straight-line trajectory to 80% reductions in economy-wide GHG emissions by 2050 relative to 2005. We then compare these two scenarios for a variety of metrics of carbon mitigation and other societal priorities in 2050. We highlight two findings. First, the synergies and tradeoffs of carbon mitigation with other societal goals at the subnational level can be quite different from the national level. For example, while deep decarbonization could improve national energy security by reducing the overall dependence on energy imports, it may exacerbate energy independence goals for some states by increasing inter-state electricity imports. Second, achieving national-level decarbonization target could result in unequal regional impacts across states. We find uneven geographic impacts for air pollution (more co-reductions occur in the eastern states), economic costs (energy prices increase more in the northeastern states) and employment (jobs increase in the western states where renewable capacity scales up, and decrease in the northeast due to reduced mining activities). Therefore, local decision makers may find decarbonization in line or contradicting with the most urgent local priority to address, highlighting the importance of evaluating the synergies and tradeoffs at the subnational level.

Occupational Task Analyses for the Development of Business Education Model Curricula with Emphasis on Banking and Financial Occupations. State Technical Committee Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delaware State Board for Vocational Education, Milford.

This guide, prepared for the Delaware State Board of Education and the State Department of Public Instruction, is intended to assist individuals developing curricula to prepare students for entry-level positions in various banking and financial occupations. It is divided into three sections, each of which consists of a cross-referenced listing of…