Simple Statistics: - Summarized!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blai, Boris, Jr.

Statistics are an essential tool for making proper judgement decisions. It is concerned with probability distribution models, testing of hypotheses, significance tests and other means of determining the correctness of deductions and the most likely outcome of decisions. Measures of central tendency include the mean, median and mode. A second…

Searching Choices: Quantifying Decision-Making Processes Using Search Engine Data.

PubMed

Moat, Helen Susannah; Olivola, Christopher Y; Chater, Nick; Preis, Tobias

2016-07-01

When making a decision, humans consider two types of information: information they have acquired through their prior experience of the world, and further information they gather to support the decision in question. Here, we present evidence that data from search engines such as Google can help us model both sources of information. We show that statistics from search engines on the frequency of content on the Internet can help us estimate the statistical structure of prior experience; and, specifically, we outline how such statistics can inform psychological theories concerning the valuation of human lives, or choices involving delayed outcomes. Turning to information gathering, we show that search query data might help measure human information gathering, and it may predict subsequent decisions. Such data enable us to compare information gathered across nations, where analyses suggest, for example, a greater focus on the future in countries with a higher per capita GDP. We conclude that search engine data constitute a valuable new resource for cognitive scientists, offering a fascinating new tool for understanding the human decision-making process. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Topics in Cognitive Science published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Cognitive Science Society.

Scan statistics with local vote for target detection in distributed system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Junhai; Wu, Qi

2017-12-01

Target detection has occupied a pivotal position in distributed system. Scan statistics, as one of the most efficient detection methods, has been applied to a variety of anomaly detection problems and significantly improves the probability of detection. However, scan statistics cannot achieve the expected performance when the noise intensity is strong, or the signal emitted by the target is weak. The local vote algorithm can also achieve higher target detection rate. After the local vote, the counting rule is always adopted for decision fusion. The counting rule does not use the information about the contiguity of sensors but takes all sensors' data into consideration, which makes the result undesirable. In this paper, we propose a scan statistics with local vote (SSLV) method. This method combines scan statistics with local vote decision. Before scan statistics, each sensor executes local vote decision according to the data of its neighbors and its own. By combining the advantages of both, our method can obtain higher detection rate in low signal-to-noise ratio environment than the scan statistics. After the local vote decision, the distribution of sensors which have detected the target becomes more intensive. To make full use of local vote decision, we introduce a variable-step-parameter for the SSLV. It significantly shortens the scan period especially when the target is absent. Analysis and simulations are presented to demonstrate the performance of our method.

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Perry J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation, and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem.

Numeracy moderates the influence of task-irrelevant affect on probability weighting.

PubMed

Traczyk, Jakub; Fulawka, Kamil

2016-06-01

Statistical numeracy, defined as the ability to understand and process statistical and probability information, plays a significant role in superior decision making. However, recent research has demonstrated that statistical numeracy goes beyond simple comprehension of numbers and mathematical operations. On the contrary to previous studies that were focused on emotions integral to risky prospects, we hypothesized that highly numerate individuals would exhibit more linear probability weighting because they would be less biased by incidental and decision-irrelevant affect. Participants were instructed to make a series of insurance decisions preceded by negative (i.e., fear-inducing) or neutral stimuli. We found that incidental negative affect increased the curvature of the probability weighting function (PWF). Interestingly, this effect was significant only for less numerate individuals, while probability weighting in more numerate people was not altered by decision-irrelevant affect. We propose two candidate mechanisms for the observed effect. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating team decision-making as an emergent phenomenon.

PubMed

Kinnear, John; Wilson, Nick; O'Dwyer, Anthony

2018-04-01

The complexity of modern clinical practice has highlighted the fallibility of individual clinicians' decision-making, with effective teamwork emerging as a key to patient safety. Dual process theory is widely accepted as a framework for individual decision-making, with type 1 processes responsible for fast, intuitive and automatic decisions and type 2 processes for slow, analytical decisions. However, dual process theory does not explain cognition at the group level, when individuals act in teams. Team cognition resulting from dynamic interaction of individuals is said to be more resilient to decision-making error and greater than simply aggregated cognition. Clinicians were paired as teams and asked to solve a cognitive puzzle constructed as a drug calculation. The frequency at which the teams made incorrect decisions was compared with that of individual clinicians answering the same question. When clinicians acted in pairs, 63% answered the cognitive puzzle correctly, compared with 33% of clinicians as individuals, showing a statistically significant difference in performance (χ 2 (1, n=116)=24.329, P<0.001). Based on the predicted performance of teams made up of the random pairing of individuals who had the same propensity to answer as previously, there was no statistical difference in the actual and predicted teams' performance. Teams are less prone to making errors of decision-making than individuals. However, the improved performance is likely to be owing to the effect of aggregated cognition rather than any improved decision-making as a result of the interaction. There is no evidence of team cognition as an emergent and distinct entity. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Adults' decision-making about the electronic waste issue: The role of the nature of science conceptualizations and moral concerns in socio-scientific decision-making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yuqing

Socio-scientific issues have become increasingly important in Science-Technology-Society (STS) education as a means to make science learning more relevant to students' lives. This study used the e-waste issue as a context to investigate two aspects of socio-scientific decision-making: (1) the relationship between the nature of science (NOS) conceptualizations and decision-making; and (2) moral concerns involved in the process of decision-making. This study contributes to the field of socio-scientific issue research and STS education in the following ways. First, it is the first study that performed meta-analysis to seek the relationship between the NOS understanding and decision-making. This study concludes that valuable NOS conceptualizations that are highly related to the socio-scientific issue under investigation, rather than general NOS understanding, exert statistically significant influences on decision-making. Second, this study empirically examined the Multiple Responses Model (MRM), which enables the transfer of qualitative NOS responses into quantitative data, and hence, inferential statistics. The current study justifies the significance of unidimensionality to the application of the MRM. It addresses the limitations associated with the MRM and provides implications for future use of the MRM in other contexts. Finally, the study explores the role of moral concerns in socio-scientific decision-making. Eight participants engaged in interviews that were designed to elicit their reactions and feelings regarding the issue of exporting e-waste to poor countries. Qualitative analyses demonstrated that moral considerations were significant influences on decision-making. In addition, participants' action responses revealed that they were motivated to take action to help the environment. The study has implications for socio-scientific issue studies in other contexts and for teacher education programs that use socio-scientific issues to advance teachers' reasoning and discourse skills.

A dynamic, embodied paradigm to investigate the role of serotonin in decision-making

PubMed Central

Asher, Derrik E.; Craig, Alexis B.; Zaldivar, Andrew; Brewer, Alyssa A.; Krichmar, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Serotonin (5-HT) is a neuromodulator that has been attributed to cost assessment and harm aversion. In this review, we look at the role 5-HT plays in making decisions when subjects are faced with potential harmful or costly outcomes. We review approaches for examining the serotonergic system in decision-making. We introduce our group’s paradigm used to investigate how 5-HT affects decision-making. In particular, our paradigm combines techniques from computational neuroscience, socioeconomic game theory, human–robot interaction, and Bayesian statistics. We will highlight key findings from our previous studies utilizing this paradigm, which helped expand our understanding of 5-HT’s effect on decision-making in relation to cost assessment. Lastly, we propose a cyclic multidisciplinary approach that may aid in addressing the complexity of exploring 5-HT and decision-making by iteratively updating our assumptions and models of the serotonergic system through exhaustive experimentation. PMID:24319413

Cognitive processes in anesthesiology decision making.

PubMed

Stiegler, Marjorie Podraza; Tung, Avery

2014-01-01

The quality and safety of health care are under increasing scrutiny. Recent studies suggest that medical errors, practice variability, and guideline noncompliance are common, and that cognitive error contributes significantly to delayed or incorrect diagnoses. These observations have increased interest in understanding decision-making psychology.Many nonrational (i.e., not purely based in statistics) cognitive factors influence medical decisions and may lead to error. The most well-studied include heuristics, preferences for certainty, overconfidence, affective (emotional) influences, memory distortions, bias, and social forces such as fairness or blame.Although the extent to which such cognitive processes play a role in anesthesia practice is unknown, anesthesia care frequently requires rapid, complex decisions that are most susceptible to decision errors. This review will examine current theories of human decision behavior, identify effects of nonrational cognitive processes on decision making, describe characteristic anesthesia decisions in this context, and suggest strategies to improve decision making.

Ethical decision-making and professional behaviour among nurses: a correlational study.

PubMed

Cerit, Birgül; Dinç, Leyla

2013-03-01

This study examined the relationship between nurses' ethical decision-making levels and their professional behaviours. Data were collected from 225 nurses who were recruited from university hospitals in Ankara using proportionate sampling. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and Pearson correlations. Most of the nurses were familiar with ethical dilemmas in nursing practice. The Nursing Principled Thinking level was above average, while the Practical Consideration level was average. Nurses' professionalism level was low. There was a positive but weak correlation between professional behaviours of the nurses and their ethical decision-making levels. Increasing nurses' professionalism level can provide a positive contribution to the ethical decision-making level.

[The relationship between career decision-making self efficacy and anxiety].

PubMed

Yao, Chen; Cai, Yun; Liu, Jia; Shan, Dan; Zhou, Xia

2012-03-01

The purpose of the paper is to examine the relationship among Career Decision-Making Self Efficacy, existential anxiety and anxiety in the sample of college students during the professional choice. Data on The Revised Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy-Shot Form, Existential Anxiety Scale (EAS), SCL-90 and self-identity status were collected and analyzed on a sample of 500 college students. 201 rural students' career decision making self-efficacy scores were as follows: self-appraisal (12.58 ± 3.48), occupational information (12.07 ± 3.05), goal selection (12.48 ± 3.51), planning (12.17 ± 3.10), problem solving (9.75 ± 2.38), all scores were lower than urban students, the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.01). Rural Students' anxiety dimension score were as follows: death and the fate of anxiety (14.75 ± 2.56), the meaningless and empty anxiety (19.32 ± 2.88), condemnation and guilt anxiety (13.72 ± 2.38), alienation and loneliness anxiety (16.82 ± 2.51), all scores are higher than urban students, the difference was statistically significant (P < 0.01). There is negative correlation between Anxiety and career decision making self-efficacy. There is a significant positive correlation between anxiety and existential anxiety. There exists a significant negative correlation among factors of student and career decision making self-efficacy and anxiety. Meaningless and emptiness anxiety on career decision making self-efficacy are significant predictors. There is negative correlation among existential anxiety, occupational information and anxiety during the professional choice.

Introducing StatHand: A Cross-Platform Mobile Application to Support Students' Statistical Decision Making.

PubMed

Allen, Peter J; Roberts, Lynne D; Baughman, Frank D; Loxton, Natalie J; Van Rooy, Dirk; Rock, Adam J; Finlay, James

2016-01-01

Although essential to professional competence in psychology, quantitative research methods are a known area of weakness for many undergraduate psychology students. Students find selecting appropriate statistical tests and procedures for different types of research questions, hypotheses and data types particularly challenging, and these skills are not often practiced in class. Decision trees (a type of graphic organizer) are known to facilitate this decision making process, but extant trees have a number of limitations. Furthermore, emerging research suggests that mobile technologies offer many possibilities for facilitating learning. It is within this context that we have developed StatHand, a free cross-platform application designed to support students' statistical decision making. Developed with the support of the Australian Government Office for Learning and Teaching, StatHand guides users through a series of simple, annotated questions to help them identify a statistical test or procedure appropriate to their circumstances. It further offers the guidance necessary to run these tests and procedures, then interpret and report their results. In this Technology Report we will overview the rationale behind StatHand, before describing the feature set of the application. We will then provide guidelines for integrating StatHand into the research methods curriculum, before concluding by outlining our road map for the ongoing development and evaluation of StatHand.

Schools and Data: The Educator's Guide for Using Data to Improve Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creighton, Theodore B.

2006-01-01

Since the first edition of "Schools and Data", the No Child Left Behind Act has swept the country, and data-based decision making is no longer an option for educators. Today's educational climate makes it imperative for all schools to collect data and use statistical analysis to help create clear goals and recognize strategies for…

"People Can Go against the Government": Risk-Based Decision Making and High School Students' Concepts of Society

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radakovic, Nenad

2015-01-01

Research in mathematics education stresses the importance of content knowledge in solving authentic tasks in statistics and in risk-based decision making. Existing research supports the claim that students rely on content knowledge and context expertise to make sense of data. In this article, however, I present evidence that the relationship…

Societal Boundaries on Cybernetic Action or Decision-Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulman, Rosalind; Steg, Doreen E.

This paper discusses the development, application, and implications of a statistical technique--a concordance index--for measuring the restrictions and constrictions (legal and societal) which inhibit individual decision making and adapting behavior. It was found that as sophistication sets in there will be less and less tolerance of these…

Information Input and Performance in Small Decision Making Groups.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryland, Edwin Holman

It was hypothesized that increases in the amount and specificity of information furnished to a discussion group would facilitate group decision making and improve other aspects of group and individual performance. Procedures in testing these assumptions included varying the amounts of statistics, examples, testimony, and augmented information…

Combining statistical inference and decisions in ecology.

PubMed

Williams, Perry J; Hooten, Mevin B

2016-09-01

Statistical decision theory (SDT) is a sub-field of decision theory that formally incorporates statistical investigation into a decision-theoretic framework to account for uncertainties in a decision problem. SDT provides a unifying analysis of three types of information: statistical results from a data set, knowledge of the consequences of potential choices (i.e., loss), and prior beliefs about a system. SDT links the theoretical development of a large body of statistical methods, including point estimation, hypothesis testing, and confidence interval estimation. The theory and application of SDT have mainly been developed and published in the fields of mathematics, statistics, operations research, and other decision sciences, but have had limited exposure in ecology. Thus, we provide an introduction to SDT for ecologists and describe its utility for linking the conventionally separate tasks of statistical investigation and decision making in a single framework. We describe the basic framework of both Bayesian and frequentist SDT, its traditional use in statistics, and discuss its application to decision problems that occur in ecology. We demonstrate SDT with two types of decisions: Bayesian point estimation and an applied management problem of selecting a prescribed fire rotation for managing a grassland bird species. Central to SDT, and decision theory in general, are loss functions. Thus, we also provide basic guidance and references for constructing loss functions for an SDT problem. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Decisions that Make a Difference in Detecting Differential Item Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sireci, Stephen G.; Rios, Joseph A.

2013-01-01

There are numerous statistical procedures for detecting items that function differently across subgroups of examinees that take a test or survey. However, in endeavouring to detect items that may function differentially, selection of the statistical method is only one of many important decisions. In this article, we discuss the important decisions…

A canonical theory of dynamic decision-making.

PubMed

Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P; Glasspool, David W

2013-01-01

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering.

A Canonical Theory of Dynamic Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Fox, John; Cooper, Richard P.; Glasspool, David W.

2012-01-01

Decision-making behavior is studied in many very different fields, from medicine and economics to psychology and neuroscience, with major contributions from mathematics and statistics, computer science, AI, and other technical disciplines. However the conceptualization of what decision-making is and methods for studying it vary greatly and this has resulted in fragmentation of the field. A theory that can accommodate various perspectives may facilitate interdisciplinary working. We present such a theory in which decision-making is articulated as a set of canonical functions that are sufficiently general to accommodate diverse viewpoints, yet sufficiently precise that they can be instantiated in different ways for specific theoretical or practical purposes. The canons cover the whole decision cycle, from the framing of a decision based on the goals, beliefs, and background knowledge of the decision-maker to the formulation of decision options, establishing preferences over them, and making commitments. Commitments can lead to the initiation of new decisions and any step in the cycle can incorporate reasoning about previous decisions and the rationales for them, and lead to revising or abandoning existing commitments. The theory situates decision-making with respect to other high-level cognitive capabilities like problem solving, planning, and collaborative decision-making. The canonical approach is assessed in three domains: cognitive and neuropsychology, artificial intelligence, and decision engineering. PMID:23565100

The relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetmore, Michael J.

The purpose of this applied dissertation was to investigate the relationship between risk factors and aeronautical decision making in the flight training environment using a quantitative, non-experimental, ex post facto research design. All 75 of the flight training accidents that involved a fatality from the years 2001-2003 were selected for study from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) aviation accident database. Objective evidence from the Factual Reports was used to construct accident chains and to code and quantify total risk factors and total poor aeronautical decisions. The data were processed using correlational statistical tests at the 1% significance level. There was a statistically significant relationship between total risk factors per flight and poor decisions per flight. Liveware risks were the most prevalent risk factor category. More poor decisions were made during preflight than any other phase of flight. Pilots who made multiple poor decisions per flight had significantly higher risk factors per flight. A risk factor threat to decision making chart is presented for use by flight instructors and/or flight training organizations. The main threat to validity of this study was the NTSB accident investigation team investigative equality assumption.

Temporal lobe epilepsy surgery: what do patients want to know?

PubMed

Choi, Hyunmi; Pargeon, Kim; Bausell, Rebecca; Wong, John B; Mendiratta, Anil; Bakken, Suzanne

2011-11-01

Patients with pharmacoresistant temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) contemplating brain surgery must make a complex treatment decision involving trade-offs. Patient decision aids, containing information on the risks and benefits of treatment interventions, increase patient knowledge and facilitate shared decision making between patients and physicians. We conducted five focus groups to describe the information patients need to make informed decisions about TLE surgery. Twenty patients who had undergone TLE surgery described the information used in their decision-making process, and evaluated the potential for a patient decision aid to assist other patients who are considering surgery. Thematic analysis revealed information needs that were both experiential (i.e., learning about other patients' experiences through testimonials) and factual (i.e., individualized statistical information). Patients also made suggestions on how this information should be delivered to patients. These data will accelerate the development of a patient decision aid designed to assist TLE patients in their decision making about epilepsy surgery. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beliefs, perceptions, and views of pregnant women about cesarean section and reproductive decision-making in a specialist health facility in Enugu, Southeast Nigeria.

PubMed

Ezeome, I V; Ezugworie, J O; Udealor, P C

2018-04-01

Through the process of socialization, women and men are conditioned to behave and play different roles in society. While the African culture "rewards" women who have vaginal birth despite the cost to their health, the burden of reproductive decision-making is placed on the menfolk. However, these seem to be changing. Our aim was to assess the beliefs and perceptions of pregnant women about cesarean section (CS), including their views regarding decision-making on the mode of delivery, in Enugu, Southeast Nigeria. A cross-sectional descriptive study. A structured questionnaire was administered to 200 pregnant women, following an oral informed consent. : Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 17 with descriptive statistics of frequencies and percentages. All the respondents believe that CS is done for the safety of the mother/baby. Thirteen percent reject the procedure for themselves no matter the circumstance. Joint decision-making was the view of two-thirds of the women. Majority of them will accept CS if their husbands consent. Younger women were of the view that husbands decide on the delivery mode (P = 0.019). Culture remains an impediment to CS uptake. Most women preferred joint decision-making on the mode of delivery.

Factors that impact on emergency nurses' ethical decision-making ability.

PubMed

Alba, Barbara

2016-11-10

Reliance on moral principles and professional codes has given nurses direction for ethical decision-making. However, rational models do not capture the emotion and reality of human choice. Intuitive response must be considered. Supporting intuition as an important ethical decision-making tool for nurses, the aim of this study was to determine relationships between intuition, years of worked nursing experience, and perceived ethical decision-making ability. A secondary aim explored the relationships between rational thought to years of worked nursing experience and perceived ethical decision-making ability. A non-experimental, correlational research design was used. The Rational Experiential Inventory measured intuition and rational thought. The Clinical Decision Making in Nursing Scale measured perceived ethical decision-making ability. Pearson's r was the statistical method used to analyze three primary and two secondary research questions. A sample of 182 emergency nurses was recruited electronically through the Emergency Nurses Association. Participants were self-selected. Approval to conduct this study was obtained by the Adelphi University Institutional Review Board. A relationship between intuition and perceived ethical decision-making ability (r = .252, p = .001) was a significant finding in this study. This study is one of the first of this nature to make a connection between intuition and nurses' ethical decision-making ability. This investigation contributes to a broader understanding of the different thought processes used by emergency nurses to make ethical decisions. © The Author(s) 2016.

Concept mapping in a critical care orientation program: a pilot study to develop critical thinking and decision-making skills in novice nurses.

PubMed

Wahl, Stacy E; Thompson, Anita M

2013-10-01

Newly graduated registered nurses who were hired into a critical care intensive care unit showed a lack of critical thinking skills to inform their clinical decision-making abilities. This study evaluated the effectiveness of concept mapping as a teaching tool to improve critical thinking and clinical decision-making skills in novice nurses. A self-evaluation tool was administered before and after the learning intervention. The 25-item tool measured five key indicators of the development of critical thinking skills: problem recognition, clinical decision-making, prioritization, clinical implementation, and reflection. Statistically significant improvements were seen in 10 items encompassing all five indicators. Concept maps are an effective tool for educators to use in assisting novice nurses to develop their critical thinking and clinical decision-making skills. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

Interpreting “statistical hypothesis testing” results in clinical research

PubMed Central

Sarmukaddam, Sanjeev B.

2012-01-01

Difference between “Clinical Significance and Statistical Significance” should be kept in mind while interpreting “statistical hypothesis testing” results in clinical research. This fact is already known to many but again pointed out here as philosophy of “statistical hypothesis testing” is sometimes unnecessarily criticized mainly due to failure in considering such distinction. Randomized controlled trials are also wrongly criticized similarly. Some scientific method may not be applicable in some peculiar/particular situation does not mean that the method is useless. Also remember that “statistical hypothesis testing” is not for decision making and the field of “decision analysis” is very much an integral part of science of statistics. It is not correct to say that “confidence intervals have nothing to do with confidence” unless one understands meaning of the word “confidence” as used in context of confidence interval. Interpretation of the results of every study should always consider all possible alternative explanations like chance, bias, and confounding. Statistical tests in inferential statistics are, in general, designed to answer the question “How likely is the difference found in random sample(s) is due to chance” and therefore limitation of relying only on statistical significance in making clinical decisions should be avoided. PMID:22707861

Bayesian Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berliner, M.

2017-12-01

Bayesian statistical decision theory offers a natural framework for decision-policy making in the presence of uncertainty. Key advantages of the approach include efficient incorporation of information and observations. However, in complicated settings it is very difficult, perhaps essentially impossible, to formalize the mathematical inputs needed in the approach. Nevertheless, using the approach as a template is useful for decision support; that is, organizing and communicating our analyses. Bayesian hierarchical modeling is valuable in quantifying and managing uncertainty such cases. I review some aspects of the idea emphasizing statistical model development and use in the context of sea-level rise.

The value of decision models: Using ecologically based invasive plant management as an example

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Humans have both fast and slow thought processes which influence our judgment and decision-making. The fast system is intuitive and valuable for decisions which do not require multiple steps or the application of logic or statistics. However, many decisions in natural resources are complex and req...

Policymakers Dependence on Evidence in Education Decision Making in Oyo State Ministry of Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Babalola, Joel B.; Gbolahan, Sowunmi

2016-01-01

This study investigated policymaker dependence on evidence in education decision making in Oyo State Ministry of Education. The study was conducted under a descriptive survey design, 44 out of the 290 policymakers of the Ministry and Board of Education across the State were purposively selected for the study. Descriptive statistics of frequency…

The precuneus may encode irrationality in human gambling.

PubMed

Sacre, P; Kerr, M S D; Subramanian, S; Kahn, K; Gonzalez-Martinez, J; Johnson, M A; Sarma, S V; Gale, J T

2016-08-01

Humans often make irrational decisions, especially psychiatric patients who have dysfunctional cognitive and emotional circuitry. Understanding the neural basis of decision-making is therefore essential towards patient management, yet current studies suffer from several limitations. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies in humans have dominated decision-making neuroscience, but have poor temporal resolution and the blood oxygenation level-dependent signal is only a proxy for neural activity. On the other hand, lesion studies in humans used to infer functionality in decision-making lack characterization of neural activity altogether. Using a combination of local field potential recordings in human subjects performing a financial decision-making task, spectral analyses, and non-parametric cluster statistics, we analyzed the activity in the precuneus. In nine subjects, the neural activity modulated significantly between rational and irrational trials in the precuneus (p <; 0.001). In particular, high-frequency activity (70-100 Hz) increased when irrational decisions were made. Although preliminary, these results suggest suppression of gamma rhythms via electrical stimulation in the precuneus as a therapeutic intervention for pathological decision-making.

The effect of high-fidelity patient simulation on the critical thinking and clinical decision-making skills of new graduate nurses.

PubMed

Maneval, Rhonda; Fowler, Kimberly A; Kays, John A; Boyd, Tiffany M; Shuey, Jennifer; Harne-Britner, Sarah; Mastrine, Cynthia

2012-03-01

This study was conducted to determine whether the addition of high-fidelity patient simulation to new nurse orientation enhanced critical thinking and clinical decision-making skills. A pretest-posttest design was used to assess critical thinking and clinical decision-making skills in two groups of graduate nurses. Compared with the control group, the high-fidelity patient simulation group did not show significant improvement in mean critical thinking or clinical decision-making scores. When mean scores were analyzed, both groups showed an increase in critical thinking scores from pretest to posttest, with the high-fidelity patient simulation group showing greater gains in overall scores. However, neither group showed a statistically significant increase in mean test scores. The effect of high-fidelity patient simulation on critical thinking and clinical decision-making skills remains unclear. Copyright 2012, SLACK Incorporated.

Towards a web-based decision support tool for selecting appropriate statistical test in medical and biological sciences.

PubMed

Suner, Aslı; Karakülah, Gökhan; Dicle, Oğuz

2014-01-01

Statistical hypothesis testing is an essential component of biological and medical studies for making inferences and estimations from the collected data in the study; however, the misuse of statistical tests is widely common. In order to prevent possible errors in convenient statistical test selection, it is currently possible to consult available test selection algorithms developed for various purposes. However, the lack of an algorithm presenting the most common statistical tests used in biomedical research in a single flowchart causes several problems such as shifting users among the algorithms, poor decision support in test selection and lack of satisfaction of potential users. Herein, we demonstrated a unified flowchart; covers mostly used statistical tests in biomedical domain, to provide decision aid to non-statistician users while choosing the appropriate statistical test for testing their hypothesis. We also discuss some of the findings while we are integrating the flowcharts into each other to develop a single but more comprehensive decision algorithm.

What Does Average Really Mean? Making Sense of Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeAngelis, Karen J.; Ayers, Steven

2009-01-01

The recent shift toward greater accountability has put many educational leaders in a position where they are expected to collect and use increasing amounts of data to inform their decision making. Yet, because many programs that prepare administrators, including school business officials, do not require a statistics course or a course that is more…

The Role of Statistics in Kosovo Enterprises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gjonbalaj, Muje; Dema, Marjan; Miftari, Iliriana

2009-01-01

Considering science as the main contributor to contemporary developments has encouraged us to raise a scientific discussion regarding the role of statistics in business decision-making and economic development. Statistics, as an applicative science, is growing and being widely applied in different fields and professions. Statistical thinking is…

Analysis of Convair 990 rejected-takeoff accident with emphasis on decision making, training and procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Batthauer, Byron E.

1987-01-01

This paper analyzes a NASA Convair 990 (CV-990) accident with emphasis on rejected-takeoff (RTO) decision making, training, procedures, and accident statistics. The NASA Aircraft Accident Investigation Board was somewhat perplexed that an aircraft could be destroyed as a result of blown tires during the takeoff roll. To provide a better understanding of tire failure RTO's, The Board obtained accident reports, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) studies, and other pertinent information related to the elements of this accident. This material enhanced the analysis process and convinced the Accident Board that high-speed RTO's in transport aircraft should be given more emphasis during pilot training. Pilots should be made aware of various RTO situations and statistics with emphasis on failed-tire RTO's. This background information could enhance the split-second decision-making process that is required prior to initiating an RTO.

Weighting Statistical Inputs for Data Used to Support Effective Decision Making During Severe Emergency Weather and Environmental Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, Adrian

2010-01-01

National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) weather and atmospheric environmental organizations are insatiable consumers of geophysical, hydrometeorological and solar weather statistics. The expanding array of internet-worked sensors producing targeted physical measurements has generated an almost factorial explosion of near real-time inputs to topical statistical datasets. Normalizing and value-based parsing of such statistical datasets in support of time-constrained weather and environmental alerts and warnings is essential, even with dedicated high-performance computational capabilities. What are the optimal indicators for advanced decision making? How do we recognize the line between sufficient statistical sampling and excessive, mission destructive sampling ? How do we assure that the normalization and parsing process, when interpolated through numerical models, yields accurate and actionable alerts and warnings? This presentation will address the integrated means and methods to achieve desired outputs for NASA and consumers of its data.

People adopt optimal policies in simple decision-making, after practice and guidance.

PubMed

Evans, Nathan J; Brown, Scott D

2017-04-01

Organisms making repeated simple decisions are faced with a tradeoff between urgent and cautious strategies. While animals can adopt a statistically optimal policy for this tradeoff, findings about human decision-makers have been mixed. Some studies have shown that people can optimize this "speed-accuracy tradeoff", while others have identified a systematic bias towards excessive caution. These issues have driven theoretical development and spurred debate about the nature of human decision-making. We investigated a potential resolution to the debate, based on two factors that routinely differ between human and animal studies of decision-making: the effects of practice, and of longer-term feedback. Our study replicated the finding that most people, by default, are overly cautious. When given both practice and detailed feedback, people moved rapidly towards the optimal policy, with many participants reaching optimality with less than 1 h of practice. Our findings have theoretical implications for cognitive and neural models of simple decision-making, as well as methodological implications.

Health decision-making preferences among African American men recruited from urban barbershops.

PubMed

Hart, Alton; Smith, Wally R; Tademy, Raymond H; McClish, Donna K; McCreary, Micah

2009-07-01

To examine general health decision-making roles among African American men ages 40 to 70 recruited in barbershops in the Richmond, Virginia, metropolitan area. We adapted the 1-item Control Preference scale to study the associations between health decision-making role preferences and demographic variables. Forty African-American men were recruited from barbershops to complete a self-administered survey. After performing descriptive statistics, we dichotomized our outcome into active vs nonactive (collaborative or passive) decision makers. Data were then analyzed using chi2, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney rank sum, and multiple logistic regression. Fifteen subjects responded that they engaged in active decision making, 20 in collaborative, and 5 in passive decision making. Almost all (86.7%) active decision makers were home owners, vs 41.7% of nonactive decision makers. Among active decision makers, 46.7% had incomes of more than $70000, vs 12.5% of nonactive decision makers. The active group reported health status that was good to excellent, while 20.8% of those in the nonactive group reported poor/fair health. African American male barbershop clients preferred an active or collaborative health decision-making role with their physician, rather than a passive role. The relationship among home ownership, income, and decision style may best be understood by considering the historical and cultural influences on gender role socialization among African American males. More comprehensive assessment of decision styles is necessary to better understand health decision making among African American male patients.

Six Sigma and Introductory Statistics Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maleyeff, John; Kaminsky, Frank C.

2002-01-01

A conflict exists between the way statistics is practiced in contemporary business environments and the way statistics is taught in schools of management. While businesses are embracing programs, such as six sigma and TQM, that bring statistical methods to the forefront of management decision making, students do not graduate with the skills to…

Statistical Entry, Descent, and Landing Flight Reconstruction with Flush Air Data System Observations Using Inertial Navigation and Monte Carlo Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shollenberger, Tara Krystyna

2014-01-01

Research suggests what leaders should do or the qualities or characteristics they "should" have to be ethical leaders (Brown & Trevino, 2006). The ethical decision-making process that leaders should follow to avoid scandals and unethical behavior are overlooked. Few studies focused on ethical decision-making within higher education.…

Schools and Data: The Educator's Guide for Using Data To Improve Decision Making.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Creighton, Theodore B.

This book focuses on the relevance of statistics in the day-to-day lives of principals and teachers. The step-by-step guide to using existing school data can help school leaders make more appropriate and effective decisions. The information is presented with easy-to-follow instructions, illustrations, and pertinent examples. The chapters are: (1)…

Decision-Making and Residence on Tagtabon Island. Working Paper of the Language Behavior Research Laboratory, No. 17.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geoghegan, William H.

This paper demonstrates, with reference to the Samal of Tagtabon Island, how the structure of local domestic groups and the statistical distribution of residence types can be derived from a detailed description of the decision rules used by Samal native actors themselves in making, evaluating and predicting residence choices. Considering the…

Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsabadze, Teimuraz

2017-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

Influence of Culture on Secondary School Students' Understanding of Statistics: A Fijian Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharma, Sashi

2014-01-01

Although we use statistical notions daily in making decisions, research in statistics education has focused mostly on formal statistics. Further, everyday culture may influence informal ideas of statistics. Yet, there appears to be minimal literature that deals with the educational implications of the role of culture. This paper will discuss the…

Extracting multistage screening rules from online dating activity data.

PubMed

Bruch, Elizabeth; Feinberg, Fred; Lee, Kee Yeun

2016-09-20

This paper presents a statistical framework for harnessing online activity data to better understand how people make decisions. Building on insights from cognitive science and decision theory, we develop a discrete choice model that allows for exploratory behavior and multiple stages of decision making, with different rules enacted at each stage. Critically, the approach can identify if and when people invoke noncompensatory screeners that eliminate large swaths of alternatives from detailed consideration. The model is estimated using deidentified activity data on 1.1 million browsing and writing decisions observed on an online dating site. We find that mate seekers enact screeners ("deal breakers") that encode acceptability cutoffs. A nonparametric account of heterogeneity reveals that, even after controlling for a host of observable attributes, mate evaluation differs across decision stages as well as across identified groupings of men and women. Our statistical framework can be widely applied in analyzing large-scale data on multistage choices, which typify searches for "big ticket" items.

Extracting multistage screening rules from online dating activity data

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth; Feinberg, Fred; Lee, Kee Yeun

2016-01-01

This paper presents a statistical framework for harnessing online activity data to better understand how people make decisions. Building on insights from cognitive science and decision theory, we develop a discrete choice model that allows for exploratory behavior and multiple stages of decision making, with different rules enacted at each stage. Critically, the approach can identify if and when people invoke noncompensatory screeners that eliminate large swaths of alternatives from detailed consideration. The model is estimated using deidentified activity data on 1.1 million browsing and writing decisions observed on an online dating site. We find that mate seekers enact screeners (“deal breakers”) that encode acceptability cutoffs. A nonparametric account of heterogeneity reveals that, even after controlling for a host of observable attributes, mate evaluation differs across decision stages as well as across identified groupings of men and women. Our statistical framework can be widely applied in analyzing large-scale data on multistage choices, which typify searches for “big ticket” items. PMID:27578870

A Diagnostics Tool to detect ensemble forecast system anomaly and guide operational decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, G. H.; Srivastava, A.; Shrestha, E.; Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Draijer, S.

2017-12-01

The hydrologic community is moving toward using ensemble forecasts to take uncertainty into account during the decision-making process. The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) implements several types of ensemble forecasts in their decision-making process: ensemble products for a statistical model (Hirsch and enhanced Hirsch); the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) forecasts based on the classical Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique; and the new NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Service (HEFS) forecasts. To remove structural error and apply the forecasts to additional forecast points, the DEP post processes both the AHPS and the HEFS forecasts. These ensemble forecasts provide mass quantities of complex data, and drawing conclusions from these forecasts is time-consuming and difficult. The complexity of these forecasts also makes it difficult to identify system failures resulting from poor data, missing forecasts, and server breakdowns. To address these issues, we developed a diagnostic tool that summarizes ensemble forecasts and provides additional information such as historical forecast statistics, forecast skill, and model forcing statistics. This additional information highlights the key information that enables operators to evaluate the forecast in real-time, dynamically interact with the data, and review additional statistics, if needed, to make better decisions. We used Bokeh, a Python interactive visualization library, and a multi-database management system to create this interactive tool. This tool compiles and stores data into HTML pages that allows operators to readily analyze the data with built-in user interaction features. This paper will present a brief description of the ensemble forecasts, forecast verification results, and the intended applications for the diagnostic tool.

Shared decision-making and decision support: their role in obstetrics and gynecology.

PubMed

Tucker Edmonds, Brownsyne

2014-12-01

To discuss the role for shared decision-making in obstetrics/gynecology and to review evidence on the impact of decision aids on reproductive health decision-making. Among the 155 studies included in a 2014 Cochrane review of decision aids, 31 (29%) addressed reproductive health decisions. Although the majority did not show evidence of an effect on treatment choice, there was a greater uptake of mammography in selected groups of women exposed to decision aids compared with usual care; and a statistically significant reduction in the uptake of hormone replacement therapy among detailed decision aid users compared with simple decision aid users. Studies also found an effect on patient-centered outcomes of care, such as medication adherence, quality-of-life measures, and anxiety scores. In maternity care, only decision analysis tools affected final treatment choice, and patient-directed aids yielded no difference in planned mode of birth after cesarean. There is untapped potential for obstetricians/gynecologists to optimize decision support for reproductive health decisions. Given the limited evidence-base guiding practice, the preference-sensitive nature of reproductive health decisions, and the increase in policy efforts and financial incentives to optimize patients' satisfaction, it is increasingly important for obstetricians/gynecologists to appreciate the role of shared decision-making and decision support in providing patient-centered reproductive healthcare.

Heuristic decision making in medicine

PubMed Central

Marewski, Julian N.; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-01-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care. PMID:22577307

A Bayesian paradigm for decision-making in proof-of-concept trials.

PubMed

Pulkstenis, Erik; Patra, Kaushik; Zhang, Jianliang

2017-01-01

Decision-making is central to every phase of drug development, and especially at the proof of concept stage where risk and evidence must be weighed carefully, often in the presence of significant uncertainty. The decision to proceed or not to large expensive Phase 3 trials has significant implications to both patients and sponsors alike. Recent experience has shown that Phase 3 failure rates remain high. We present a flexible Bayesian quantitative decision-making paradigm that evaluates evidence relative to achieving a multilevel target product profile. A framework for operating characteristics is provided that allows the drug developer to design a proof-of-concept trial in light of its ability to support decision-making rather than merely achieve statistical significance. Operating characteristics are shown to be superior to traditional p-value-based methods. In addition, discussion related to sample size considerations, application to interim futility analysis and incorporation of prior historical information is evaluated.

What Goes Into a Decision? How Nursing Faculty Decide Which Best Practices to Use for Classroom Testing.

PubMed

Killingsworth, Erin; Kimble, Laura P; Sudia, Tanya

2015-01-01

To explore the decision-making process of BSN faculty when determining which best practices to use for classroom testing. A descriptive, correlational study was conducted with a national sample (N = 127) of full-time BSN faculty. Participants completed a web-based survey incorporating instruments that measured beliefs about evaluation, decision-making, and best practices for item analysis and constructing and revising classroom tests. Study participants represented 31 states and were primarily middle-aged white women. In multiple linear regression analyses, faculty beliefs, contextual factors for decision-making, and decision-making processes accounted for statistically significant amounts of the variance in item analysis and test construction and revision. Strong faculty beliefs that rules were important when evaluating students was a significant predictor of increased use of best practices. Results support that understanding faculty beliefs around classroom testing is important in promoting the use of best practices.

Heuristic decision making in medicine.

PubMed

Marewski, Julian N; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-03-01

Can less information be more helpful when it comes to making medical decisions? Contrary to the common intuition that more information is always better, the use of heuristics can help both physicians and patients to make sound decisions. Heuristics are simple decision strategies that ignore part of the available information, basing decisions on only a few relevant predictors. We discuss: (i) how doctors and patients use heuristics; and (ii) when heuristics outperform information-greedy methods, such as regressions in medical diagnosis. Furthermore, we outline those features of heuristics that make them useful in health care settings. These features include their surprising accuracy, transparency, and wide accessibility, as well as the low costs and little time required to employ them. We close by explaining one of the statistical reasons why heuristics are accurate, and by pointing to psychiatry as one area for future research on heuristics in health care.

Decision-making competence in younger and older adults: which cognitive abilities contribute to the application of decision rules?

PubMed

Rosi, Alessia; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Del Missier, Fabio; Cavallini, Elena; Russo, Riccardo

2017-12-28

Older adults perform worse than younger adults when applying decision rules to choose between options that vary along multiple attributes. Although previous studies have shown that general fluid cognitive abilities contribute to the accurate application of decision rules, relatively little is known about which specific cognitive abilities play the most important role. We examined the independent roles of working memory, verbal fluency, semantic knowledge, and components of executive functioning. We found that age-related decline in applying decision rules was statistically mediated by age-related decline in working memory and verbal fluency. Our results have implications for theories of aging and decision-making.

Predictive analytics and child protection: constraints and opportunities.

PubMed

Russell, Jesse

2015-08-01

This paper considers how predictive analytics might inform, assist, and improve decision making in child protection. Predictive analytics represents recent increases in data quantity and data diversity, along with advances in computing technology. While the use of data and statistical modeling is not new to child protection decision making, its use in child protection is experiencing growth, and efforts to leverage predictive analytics for better decision-making in child protection are increasing. Past experiences, constraints and opportunities are reviewed. For predictive analytics to make the most impact on child protection practice and outcomes, it must embrace established criteria of validity, equity, reliability, and usefulness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Toward Reflective Judgment in Exploratory Factor Analysis Decisions: Determining the Extraction Method and Number of Factors To Retain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Jennifer L.

This paper considers some decisions that must be made by the researcher conducting an exploratory factor analysis. The primary purpose is to aid the researcher in making informed decisions during the factor analysis instead of relying on defaults in statistical programs or traditions of previous researchers. Three decision areas are addressed.…

Uncertainty in sample estimates and the implicit loss function for soil information.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lark, Murray

2015-04-01

One significant challenge in the communication of uncertain information is how to enable the sponsors of sampling exercises to make a rational choice of sample size. One way to do this is to compute the value of additional information given the loss function for errors. The loss function expresses the costs that result from decisions made using erroneous information. In certain circumstances, such as remediation of contaminated land prior to development, loss functions can be computed and used to guide rational decision making on the amount of resource to spend on sampling to collect soil information. In many circumstances the loss function cannot be obtained prior to decision making. This may be the case when multiple decisions may be based on the soil information and the costs of errors are hard to predict. The implicit loss function is proposed as a tool to aid decision making in these circumstances. Conditional on a logistical model which expresses costs of soil sampling as a function of effort, and statistical information from which the error of estimates can be modelled as a function of effort, the implicit loss function is the loss function which makes a particular decision on effort rational. In this presentation the loss function is defined and computed for a number of arbitrary decisions on sampling effort for a hypothetical soil monitoring problem. This is based on a logistical model of sampling cost parameterized from a recent geochemical survey of soil in Donegal, Ireland and on statistical parameters estimated with the aid of a process model for change in soil organic carbon. It is shown how the implicit loss function might provide a basis for reflection on a particular choice of sample size by comparing it with the values attributed to soil properties and functions. Scope for further research to develop and apply the implicit loss function to help decision making by policy makers and regulators is then discussed.

Clinical decision-making among new graduate nurses attending residency programs in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Al-Dossary, Reem Nassar; Kitsantas, Panagiota; Maddox, P J

2016-02-01

This study examined the impact of residency programs on clinical decision-making of new Saudi graduate nurses who completed a residency program compared to new Saudi graduate nurses who did not participate in residency programs. This descriptive study employed a convenience sample (N=98) of new graduate nurses from three hospitals in Saudi Arabia. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data. Clinical decision-making skills were measured using the Clinical Decision Making in Nursing Scale. Descriptive statistics, independent t-tests, and multiple linear regression analysis were utilized to examine the effect of residency programs on new graduate nurses' clinical decision-making skills. On average, resident nurses had significantly higher levels of clinical decision-making skills than non-residents (t=23.25, p=0.000). Enrollment in a residency program explained 86.9% of the variance in total clinical decision making controlling for age and overall grade point average. The findings of this study support evidence in the nursing literature conducted primarily in the US and Europe that residency programs have a positive influence on new graduate nurses' clinical decision-making skills. This is the first study to examine the impact of residency programs on clinical decision-making among new Saudi graduate nurses who completed a residency program. The findings of this study underscore the need for the development and implementation of residency programs for all new nurses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Virtual Beach 3: User's Guide

EPA Science Inventory

Virtual Beach version 3 (VB3) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) concentrations at recreational beaches. VB3 is primarily designed for beach managers responsible for making decisions regarding beac...

Expected p-values in light of an ROC curve analysis applied to optimal multiple testing procedures.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Yu, Jihnhee; Zhao, Yang; Hutson, Alan D; Gurevich, Gregory

2017-01-01

Many statistical studies report p-values for inferential purposes. In several scenarios, the stochastic aspect of p-values is neglected, which may contribute to drawing wrong conclusions in real data experiments. The stochastic nature of p-values makes their use to examine the performance of given testing procedures or associations between investigated factors to be difficult. We turn our focus on the modern statistical literature to address the expected p-value (EPV) as a measure of the performance of decision-making rules. During the course of our study, we prove that the EPV can be considered in the context of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a well-established biostatistical methodology. The ROC-based framework provides a new and efficient methodology for investigating and constructing statistical decision-making procedures, including: (1) evaluation and visualization of properties of the testing mechanisms, considering, e.g. partial EPVs; (2) developing optimal tests via the minimization of EPVs; (3) creation of novel methods for optimally combining multiple test statistics. We demonstrate that the proposed EPV-based approach allows us to maximize the integrated power of testing algorithms with respect to various significance levels. In an application, we use the proposed method to construct the optimal test and analyze a myocardial infarction disease dataset. We outline the usefulness of the "EPV/ROC" technique for evaluating different decision-making procedures, their constructions and properties with an eye towards practical applications.

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

A strategic plan for transportation statistics (2000-2005)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-03-01

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) is one of eleven operating administrations within the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). BTS puts together data and information that others need to make decisions concerning transportation. We colle...

[The effects of case-based learning using video on clinical decision making and learning motivation in undergraduate nursing students].

PubMed

Yoo, Moon-Sook; Park, Jin-Hee; Lee, Si-Ra

2010-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of case-base learning (CBL) using video on clinical decision-making and learning motivation. This research was conducted between June 2009 and April 2010 as a nonequivalent control group non-synchronized design. The study population was 44 third year nursing students who enrolled in a college of nursing, A University in Korea. The nursing students were divided into the CBL and the control group. The intervention was the CBL with three cases using video. The controls attended a traditional live lecture on the same topics. With questionnaires objective clinical decision-making, subjective clinical decision-making, and learning motivation were measured before the intervention, and 10 weeks after the intervention. Significant group differences were observed in clinical decision-making and learning motivation. The post-test scores of clinical decision-making in the CBL group were statistically higher than the control group. Learning motivation was also significantly higher in the CBL group than in the control group. These results indicate that CBL using video is effective in enhancing clinical decision-making and motivating students to learn by encouraging self-directed learning and creating more interest and curiosity in learning.

Using Statistical Process Control to Make Data-Based Clinical Decisions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfadt, Al; Wheeler, Donald J.

1995-01-01

Statistical process control (SPC), which employs simple statistical tools and problem-solving techniques such as histograms, control charts, flow charts, and Pareto charts to implement continual product improvement procedures, can be incorporated into human service organizations. Examples illustrate use of SPC procedures to analyze behavioral data…

Evaluating the decision accuracy and speed of clinical data visualizations.

PubMed

Pieczkiewicz, David S; Finkelstein, Stanley M

2010-01-01

Clinicians face an increasing volume of biomedical data. Assessing the efficacy of systems that enable accurate and timely clinical decision making merits corresponding attention. This paper discusses the multiple-reader multiple-case (MRMC) experimental design and linear mixed models as means of assessing and comparing decision accuracy and latency (time) for decision tasks in which clinician readers must interpret visual displays of data. These tools can assess and compare decision accuracy and latency (time). These experimental and statistical techniques, used extensively in radiology imaging studies, offer a number of practical and analytic advantages over more traditional quantitative methods such as percent-correct measurements and ANOVAs, and are recommended for their statistical efficiency and generalizability. An example analysis using readily available, free, and commercial statistical software is provided as an appendix. While these techniques are not appropriate for all evaluation questions, they can provide a valuable addition to the evaluative toolkit of medical informatics research.

Identifying Non-Sustainable Courses of Action: A Prerequisite for Decision-Making in Education for Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gresch, Helge; Bögeholz, Susanne

2013-04-01

Students are faced with a multitude of decisions as consumers and in societal debates. Because of the scarcity of resources, the destruction of ecosystems and social injustice in a globalized world, it is vital that students are able to identify non-sustainable courses of action when involved in decision-making. The application of decision-making strategies is one approach to enhancing the quality of decisions. Options that do not meet ecological, social or economic standards should be excluded using non-compensatory strategies whereas other tasks may require a complete trade-off of all the evidence, following a compensatory approach. To enhance decision-making competence, a computer-based intervention study was conducted that focused on the use of decision-making strategies. While the results of the summative evaluation are reported by Gresch et al. (International Journal of Science Education, 2011), in-depth analyses of process-related data collected during the information processing are presented in this paper to reveal insights into the mechanisms of the intervention. The quality of high school students' ( n = 120) metadecision skills when selecting a decision-making strategy was investigated using qualitative content analyses combined with inferential statistics. The results reveal that the students offered elaborate reflections on the sustainability of options. However, the characteristics that were declared non-sustainable differed among the students because societal norms and personal values were intertwined. One implication for education for sustainable development is that students are capable of reflecting on decision-making tasks and on corresponding favorable decision-making strategies at a metadecision level. From these results, we offer suggestions for improving learning environments and constructing test instruments for decision-making competence.

Understanding Optimal Military Decision Making: Year 2 Progress Report

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

measures. ARMY RELEVANCY AND MILITARY APPLICATION AREAS Objectively defining, measuring, and developing a means to assess military optimal decision making...has the potential to enhance training and refine procedures supporting more efficient learning and task accomplishment. Through the application of...26.79 (12.39) 7.94 (62.38) N/A = Not applicable ; as it is not possible to calculate this particular variable. Table 2. Descriptive statistics of

Optimal decision making on the basis of evidence represented in spike trains.

PubMed

Zhang, Jiaxiang; Bogacz, Rafal

2010-05-01

Experimental data indicate that perceptual decision making involves integration of sensory evidence in certain cortical areas. Theoretical studies have proposed that the computation in neural decision circuits approximates statistically optimal decision procedures (e.g., sequential probability ratio test) that maximize the reward rate in sequential choice tasks. However, these previous studies assumed that the sensory evidence was represented by continuous values from gaussian distributions with the same variance across alternatives. In this article, we make a more realistic assumption that sensory evidence is represented in spike trains described by the Poisson processes, which naturally satisfy the mean-variance relationship observed in sensory neurons. We show that for such a representation, the neural circuits involving cortical integrators and basal ganglia can approximate the optimal decision procedures for two and multiple alternative choice tasks.

Arthroscopy Journal Prizes Are Major Decisions.

PubMed

Lubowitz, James H; Brand, Jefferson C; Provencher, Matthew T; Rossi, Michael J

2016-01-01

According to the Harvard Business Review, the optimal number of people in a decision-making group is no more than 8. Thus, it is no surprise that 18 Arthroscopy journal associate editors had difficulty making a major decision. In the end, 18 editors did successfully select the 2015 winner of the Best Comparative Study Prize. All studies have limitations, but from a statistical standpoint, the editors believe that the conclusions of the winning study are likely correct. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Towards good practice for health statistics: lessons from the Millennium Development Goal health indicators.

PubMed

Murray, Christopher J L

2007-03-10

Health statistics are at the centre of an increasing number of worldwide health controversies. Several factors are sharpening the tension between the supply and demand for high quality health information, and the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) provide a high-profile example. With thousands of indicators recommended but few measured well, the worldwide health community needs to focus its efforts on improving measurement of a small set of priority areas. Priority indicators should be selected on the basis of public-health significance and several dimensions of measurability. Health statistics can be divided into three types: crude, corrected, and predicted. Health statistics are necessary inputs to planning and strategic decision making, programme implementation, monitoring progress towards targets, and assessment of what works and what does not. Crude statistics that are biased have no role in any of these steps; corrected statistics are preferred. For strategic decision making, when corrected statistics are unavailable, predicted statistics can play an important part. For monitoring progress towards agreed targets and assessment of what works and what does not, however, predicted statistics should not be used. Perhaps the most effective method to decrease controversy over health statistics and to encourage better primary data collection and the development of better analytical methods is a strong commitment to provision of an explicit data audit trail. This initiative would make available the primary data, all post-data collection adjustments, models including covariates used for farcasting and forecasting, and necessary documentation to the public.

Influence of Birth Preparedness, Decision-Making on Location of Birth and Assistance by Skilled Birth Attendants among Women in South-Western Uganda

PubMed Central

Kabakyenga, Jerome K.; Östergren, Per-Olof; Turyakira, Eleanor; Pettersson, Karen Odberg

2012-01-01

Introduction Assistance by skilled birth attendants (SBAs) during childbirth is one of the strategies aimed at reducing maternal morbidity and mortality in low-income countries. However, the relationship between birth preparedness and decision-making on location of birth and assistance by skilled birth attendants in this context is not well studied. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of birth preparedness practices and decision-making and assistance by SBAs among women in south-western Uganda. Methods Community survey methods were used to identify 759 recently delivered women from 120 villages in rural Mbarara district. Interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to collect data. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the relationship between birth preparedness, decision-making on location of birth and assistance by SBAs. Results 35% of the women had been prepared for childbirth and the prevalence of assistance by SBAs in the sample was 68%. The final decision regarding location of birth was made by the woman herself (36%), the woman with spouse (56%) and the woman with relative/friend (8%). The relationships between birth preparedness and women decision-making on location of birth in consultation with spouse/friends/relatives and choosing assistance by SBAs showed statistical significance which persisted after adjusting for possible confounders (OR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0–2.4) and (OR 4.4, 95% CI: 3.0–6.7) respectively. Education, household assets and birth preparedness showed clear synergistic effect on the relationship between decision-maker on location of birth and assistance by SBAs. Other factors which showed statistical significant relationships with assistance by SBAs were ANC attendance, parity and residence. Conclusion Women’s decision-making on location of birth in consultation with spouse/friends/relatives and birth preparedness showed significant effect on choosing assistance by SBAs at birth. Education and household assets ownership showed a synergistic effect on the relationship between the decision-maker and assistance by SBAs. PMID:22558214

Use of evidence-based management in healthcare administration decision-making.

PubMed

Guo, Ruiling; Berkshire, Steven D; Fulton, Lawrence V; Hermanson, Patrick M

2017-07-03

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine whether healthcare leaders use evidence-based management (EBMgt) when facing major decisions and what types of evidence healthcare administrators consult during their decision-making. This study also intends to identify any relationship that might exist among adoption of EBMgt in healthcare management, attitudes towards EBMgt, demographic characteristics and organizational characteristics. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional study was conducted among US healthcare leaders. Spearman's correlation and logistic regression were performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 23.0. Findings One hundred and fifty-four healthcare leaders completed the survey. The study results indicated that 90 per cent of the participants self-reported having used an EBMgt approach for decision-making. Professional experiences (87 per cent), organizational data (84 per cent) and stakeholders' values (63 per cent) were the top three types of evidence consulted daily and weekly for decision-making. Case study (75 per cent) and scientific research findings (75 per cent) were the top two types of evidence consulted monthly or less than once a month. An exploratory, stepwise logistic regression model correctly classified 75.3 per cent of all observations for a dichotomous "use of EBMgt" response variable using three independent variables: attitude towards EBMgt, number of employees in the organization and the job position. Spearman's correlation indicated statistically significant relationships between healthcare leaders' use of EBMgt and healthcare organization bed size ( r s = 0.217, n = 152, p < 0.01), attitude towards EBMgt ( r s = 0.517, n = 152, p < 0.01), and the number of organization employees ( r s = 0.195, n = 152, p = 0.016). Originality/value This study generated new research findings on the practice of EBMgt in US healthcare administration decision-making.

Sensitivity of super-efficient data envelopment analysis results to individual decision-making units: an example of surgical workload by specialty.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; O'Neill, Liam; Xin, Lei; Ledolter, Johannes

2008-12-01

We use resampling of data to explore the basic statistical properties of super-efficient data envelopment analysis (DEA) when used as a benchmarking tool by the manager of a single decision-making unit. Our focus is the gaps in the outputs (i.e., slacks adjusted for upward bias), as they reveal which outputs can be increased. The numerical experiments show that the estimates of the gaps fail to exhibit asymptotic consistency, a property expected for standard statistical inference. Specifically, increased sample sizes were not always associated with more accurate forecasts of the output gaps. The baseline DEA's gaps equaled the mode of the jackknife and the mode of resampling with/without replacement from any subset of the population; usually, the baseline DEA's gaps also equaled the median. The quartile deviations of gaps were close to zero when few decision-making units were excluded from the sample and the study unit happened to have few other units contributing to its benchmark. The results for the quartile deviations can be explained in terms of the effective combinations of decision-making units that contribute to the DEA solution. The jackknife can provide all the combinations contributing to the quartile deviation and only needs to be performed for those units that are part of the benchmark set. These results show that there is a strong rationale for examining DEA results with a sensitivity analysis that excludes one benchmark hospital at a time. This analysis enhances the quality of decision support using DEA estimates for the potential ofa decision-making unit to grow one or more of its outputs.

BETTER STATISTICS FOR BETTER DECISIONS: REJECTING NULL HYPOTHESES STATISTICAL TESTS IN FAVOR OF REPLICATION STATISTICS

PubMed Central

SANABRIA, FEDERICO; KILLEEN, PETER R.

2008-01-01

Despite being under challenge for the past 50 years, null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) remains dominant in the scientific field for want of viable alternatives. NHST, along with its significance level p, is inadequate for most of the uses to which it is put, a flaw that is of particular interest to educational practitioners who too often must use it to sanctify their research. In this article, we review the failure of NHST and propose prep, the probability of replicating an effect, as a more useful statistic for evaluating research and aiding practical decision making. PMID:19122766

Configural displays can improve nutrition-related. decisions: an application of the proximity compatibility principle.

PubMed

Marino, Christopher J; Mahan, Robert R

2005-01-01

The nutrition label format currently used by consumers to make dietary-related decisions presents significant information-processing demands for integration-based decisions; however, those demands were not considered as primary factors when the format was adopted. Labels designed in accordance with known principles of cognitive psychology might enhance the kind of decision making that food labeling was intended to facilitate. Three experiments were designed on the basis of the proximity compatibility principle (PCP) to investigate the relationship between nutrition label format and decision making; the experiments involved two types of integration decisions and one type of filtering decision. Based on the PCP, decision performance was measured to test the overall hypothesis that matched task-display tandems would result in better decision performance than would mismatched tandems. In each experiment, a statistically significant increase in mean decision performance was found when the display design was cognitively matched to the demands of the task. Combined, the results from all three experiments support the general hypothesis that task-display matching is a design principle that may enhance the utility of nutrition labeling in nutrition-related decision making. Actual or potential applications of this research include developing robust display solutions that aid in less effortful assimilation of nutrition-related information for consumers.

Statistical Literacy: Data Tell a Story

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sole, Marla A.

2016-01-01

Every day, students collect, organize, and analyze data to make decisions. In this data-driven world, people need to assess how much trust they can place in summary statistics. The results of every survey and the safety of every drug that undergoes a clinical trial depend on the correct application of appropriate statistics. Recognizing the…

Applying Statistical Process Control to Clinical Data: An Illustration.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pfadt, Al; And Others

1992-01-01

Principles of statistical process control are applied to a clinical setting through the use of control charts to detect changes, as part of treatment planning and clinical decision-making processes. The logic of control chart analysis is derived from principles of statistical inference. Sample charts offer examples of evaluating baselines and…

Efficiency Analysis: Enhancing the Statistical and Evaluative Power of the Regression-Discontinuity Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madhere, Serge

An analytic procedure, efficiency analysis, is proposed for improving the utility of quantitative program evaluation for decision making. The three features of the procedure are explained: (1) for statistical control, it adopts and extends the regression-discontinuity design; (2) for statistical inferences, it de-emphasizes hypothesis testing in…

Balancing emotion and cognition: a case for decision aiding in conservation efforts.

PubMed

Wilson, Robyn S

2008-12-01

Despite advances in the quality of participatory decision making for conservation, many current efforts still suffer from an inability to bridge the gap between science and policy. Judgment and decision-making research suggests this gap may result from a person's reliance on affect-based shortcuts in complex decision contexts. I examined the results from 3 experiments that demonstrate how affect (i.e., the instantaneous reaction one has to a stimulus) influences individual judgments in these contexts and identified techniques from the decision-aiding literature that help encourage a balance between affect-based emotion and cognition in complex decision processes. In the first study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on their stated conservation objectives and made decisions that reflected their initial affective impressions. Value-focused approaches may help individuals incorporate all the decision-relevant objectives by making the technical and value-based objectives more salient. In the second study, subjects displayed a lack of focus on statistical risk and again made affect-based decisions. Trade-off techniques may help individuals incorporate relevant technical data, even when it conflicts with their initial affective impressions or other value-based objectives. In the third study, subjects displayed a lack of trust in decision-making authorities when the decision involved a negatively affect-rich outcome (i.e., a loss). Identifying shared salient values and increasing procedural fairness may help build social trust in both decision-making authorities and the decision process.

Content-Related Issues Pertaining to Teaching Statistics: Making Decisions about Educational Objectives in Statistics Courses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bliss, Leonard B.; Tashakkori, Abbas

This paper discusses the objectives that would be appropriate for statistics classes for students who are not majoring in statistics, evaluation, or quantitative research design. These "non-majors" should be able to choose appropriate analytical methods for specific sets of data based on the research question and the nature of the data, and they…

A Structured Approach to End-of-Life Decision Making Improves Quality of Care for Patients With Terminal Illness in a Teaching Hospital in Ghana.

PubMed

Edwin, Ama Kyerewaa; Johnson McGee, Summer; Opare-Lokko, Edwina Addo; Gyakobo, Mawuli Kotope

2016-03-01

To determine whether a structured approach to end-of-life decision-making directed by a compassionate interdisciplinary team would improve the quality of care for patients with terminal illness in a teaching hospital in Ghana. A retrospective analysis was done for 20 patients who consented to participate in the structured approach to end-of-life decision-making. Twenty patients whose care did not follow the structured approach were selected as controls. Outcome measures were nociceptive pain control, completing relationships, and emotional response towards dying. These measures were statistically superior in the study group compared to the control group. A structured approach to end-of-life decision-making significantly improves the quality of care for patients with terminal illness in the domains of pain control, completing relationships and emotional responses towards dying. © The Author(s) 2014.

Development of a Model of Interprofessional Shared Clinical Decision Making in the ICU: A Mixed-Methods Study.

PubMed

DeKeyser Ganz, Freda; Engelberg, Ruth; Torres, Nicole; Curtis, Jared Randall

2016-04-01

To develop a model to describe ICU interprofessional shared clinical decision making and the factors associated with its implementation. Ethnographic (observations and interviews) and survey designs. Three ICUs (two in Israel and one in the United States). A convenience sample of nurses and physicians. None. Observations and interviews were analyzed using ethnographic and grounded theory methodologies. Questionnaires included a demographic information sheet and the Jefferson Scale of Attitudes toward Physician-Nurse Collaboration. From observations and interviews, we developed a conceptual model of the process of shared clinical decision making that involves four stepped levels, proceeding from the lowest to the highest levels of collaboration: individual decision, information exchange, deliberation, and shared decision. This process is influenced by individual, dyadic, and system factors. Most decisions were made at the lower two levels. Levels of perceived collaboration were moderate with no statistically significant differences between physicians and nurses or between units. Both qualitative and quantitative data corroborated that physicians and nurses from all units were similarly and moderately satisfied with their level of collaboration and shared decision making. However, most ICU clinical decision making continues to take place independently, where there is some sharing of information but rarely are decisions made collectively. System factors, such as interdisciplinary rounds and unit culture, seem to have a strong impact on this process. This study provides a model for further study and improvement of interprofessional shared decision making.

Career exploration behavior of Korean medical students

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Purpose This study is to analyze the effects of medical students’ social support and career barriers on career exploration behavior mediated by career decision-making self-efficacy. Methods We applied the t-test to investigate the difference among the variables based on gender and admission types. Also, we performed path analysis to verify the effect of perceived career barriers and social support on career exploration behavior with career decision efficacy as a mediator. Results First, we noted statistically significant gender and admission type difference in social support, career barriers and career exploration behaviors. Second, social support and career barriers were found to influence career exploration behavior as a mediating variable for career decision-making self-efficacy. Conclusion Social support and career barriers as perceived by medical students influenced their career exploration behavior, with their decision-making self-efficacy serving as a full mediator. Therefore, this study has educational implications for career program development and educational training for career decision-making self-efficacy. PMID:28870020

Front-Line Physicians' Satisfaction with Information Systems in Hospitals.

PubMed

Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Junttila, Kristiina; Salanterä, Sanna

2018-01-01

Day-to-day operations management in hospital units is difficult due to continuously varying situations, several actors involved and a vast number of information systems in use. The aim of this study was to describe front-line physicians' satisfaction with existing information systems needed to support the day-to-day operations management in hospitals. A cross-sectional survey was used and data chosen with stratified random sampling were collected in nine hospitals. Data were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The response rate was 65 % (n = 111). The physicians reported that information systems support their decision making to some extent, but they do not improve access to information nor are they tailored for physicians. The respondents also reported that they need to use several information systems to support decision making and that they would prefer one information system to access important information. Improved information access would better support physicians' decision making and has the potential to improve the quality of decisions and speed up the decision making process.

A novel framework for improvement of road accidents considering decision-making styles of drivers in a large metropolitan area.

PubMed

Azadeh, Ali; Zarrin, Mansour; Hamid, Mehdi

2016-02-01

Road accidents can be caused by different factors such as human factors. Quality of the decision-making process of drivers could have a considerable impact on preventing disasters. The main objective of this study is the analysis of factors affecting road accidents by considering the severity of accidents and decision-making styles of drivers. To this end, a novel framework is proposed based on data envelopment analysis (DEA) and statistical methods (SMs) to assess the factors affecting road accidents. In this study, for the first time, dominant decision-making styles of drivers with respect to severity of injuries are identified. To show the applicability of the proposed framework, this research employs actual data of more than 500 samples in Tehran, Iran. The empirical results indicate that the flexible decision style is the dominant style for both minor and severe levels of accident injuries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association of a traditional vs shared meal decision-making and preparation style with eating behavior of Hispanic women in San Diego County.

PubMed

Arredondo, Elva M; Elder, John P; Ayala, Guadalupe X; Slymen, Donald; Campbell, Nadia R

2006-01-01

To examine the influence of meal decision-making and preparation on Hispanic women's dietary practices. One-on-one structured interviews were conducted, assessing meal decision-making and preparation practices, barriers, and behavioral strategies to eating low-fat and high-fiber diets, fat and fiber intake, demographic, and other psychosocial factors. The study population included 357 Hispanic women living in the southern or central regions of San Diego County. Participants were recruited via random-digit dialing to a tailored nutrition communication intervention. Household decision-making style (alone vs with family) by household activity (decides meals, prepares meals, and decides snacks). Multiple logistic regressions were used to evaluate associations between the predictors and dependent variable. All models included adjustments for potential confounders, such as marital status, education, employment, age, and acculturation. A positive statistical association between Hispanic women's acculturation level and shared decision-making style was found. Also, Hispanic women in shared decision-making households faced greater psychosocial barriers to healthful eating and reported less healthful eating compared with Hispanic women in traditional households. Women in shared decision-making households were more likely to eat at fast-food restaurants, less likely to engage in behavioral strategies promoting fiber consumption, eat more saturated fat, and encounter more barriers to reduce dietary fat as compared with Hispanic women in traditional households. Acculturation did not attenuate differences in psychosocial and dietary practices between shared decision-making and traditional households. Study findings suggest intervention efforts should focus on different aspects of healthful eating among Hispanic women in shared-decision, compared with traditional, households.

The Effectiveness of Using Linguistic Classroom Activities in Teaching English Language in Developing the Skills of Oral Linguistic Performance and Decision Making Skill among Third Grade Intermediate Students in Makah

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alshareef, Fahd Majed

2016-01-01

The study aimed to reveal the effectiveness of the use of certain classroom language activities in teaching English language in the development of oral linguistic performance and decision-making among intermediate third-grade students in Makah, and it revealed a statistically significant correlation relationship between the averages of the study…

Questionnaire-Based Maladaptive Decision-Coping Patterns Involved in Binge Eating Among 1013 College Students

PubMed Central

Yan, Wan-Sen; Zhang, Ran-Ran; Lan, Yan; Li, Zhi-Ming; Li, Yong-Hui

2018-01-01

Binge Eating Disorder (BED), considered a public health problem because of its impact on psychiatric, physical, and social functioning, merits much attention given its elevation to an independent diagnosis in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition (DSM-5). Similar with substance use disorders, some neuropsychological and personality constructs are potentially implicated in the onset and development of BED, in which poor decision-making has been suggested to facilitate overeating and BED. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between decision-coping patterns, monetary decision-making, and binge-eating behavior in young adults. A sample of 1013 college students, equally divided into binge-eating and non-binge-eating groups according to the scores on the Binge Eating Scale (BES), were administered multiple measures of decision-making including the Melbourne Decision-Making Questionnaire (MDMQ), the Delay-discounting Test (DDT), and the Probability Discounting Test (PDT). Compared with the non-binge-eating group, the binge-eating group displayed elevated scores on maladaptive decision-making patterns including Procrastination, Buck-passing, and Hypervigilance. Logistic regression model revealed that only Procrastination positively predicted binge eating. These findings suggest that different dimensions of decision-making may be distinctly linked to binge eating among young adults, with Procrastination putatively identified as a risk trait in the development of overeating behavior, which might promote a better understanding of this disorder. PMID:29765343

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Parents' information needs and influential factors when making decisions about TNF-α inhibitors.

PubMed

Lipstein, Ellen A; Lovell, Daniel J; Denson, Lee A; Kim, Sandra C; Spencer, Charles; Britto, Maria T

2016-09-15

Parents struggle when making treatment decisions for children with arthritis or other chronic conditions. Understanding their decision-making process is an essential step towards improving the decision-making experience. The objective of this study was to describe parents' information needs and the influences on their decision making about treatment with TNF-α inhibitors. Survey domains were developed based on qualitative data and cognitive interviewing. We mailed the survey to parents of children with juvenile idiopathic arthritis or inflammatory bowel disease who had initiated treatment with TNF-α inhibitors in the prior 2 years. Data were analyzed using descriptive and non-parametric statistics. Survey response rate was 54.9 %. Each item had <2 % missing responses. Parents used an array of information sources when deciding about treatment with TNF-α inhibitors. Resources other than their child's specialist were most often used to increase confidence in parents' decisions or because they wanted to know more about other people's experiences being treated with TNF-α inhibitors, rather than due to a lack of understanding. All but two (cost and route of administration) of the influential decision factors were very or extremely important to the majority of participants with factors related to long-term side effects, treatment efficacy, and disease impact being most important. This study describes parents' information needs and influential factors in treatment decision making. Results suggest that future work should be aimed at helping families weigh risks and benefits, such as through decision support interventions, as well as developing opportunities to include people beyond the family and physician in the decision-making process.

Evaluation of the performance of statistical tests used in making cleanup decisions at Superfund sites. Part 1: Choosing an appropriate statistical test

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berman, D.W.; Allen, B.C.; Van Landingham, C.B.

1998-12-31

The decision rules commonly employed to determine the need for cleanup are evaluated both to identify conditions under which they lead to erroneous conclusions and to quantify the rate that such errors occur. Their performance is also compared with that of other applicable decision rules. The authors based the evaluation of decision rules on simulations. Results are presented as power curves. These curves demonstrate that the degree of statistical control achieved is independent of the form of the null hypothesis. The loss of statistical control that occurs when a decision rule is applied to a data set that does notmore » satisfy the rule`s validity criteria is also clearly demonstrated. Some of the rules evaluated do not offer the formal statistical control that is an inherent design feature of other rules. Nevertheless, results indicate that such informal decision rules may provide superior overall control of error rates, when their application is restricted to data exhibiting particular characteristics. The results reported here are limited to decision rules applied to uncensored and lognormally distributed data. To optimize decision rules, it is necessary to evaluate their behavior when applied to data exhibiting a range of characteristics that bracket those common to field data. The performance of decision rules applied to data sets exhibiting a broader range of characteristics is reported in the second paper of this study.« less

Maintaining homeostasis by decision-making.

PubMed

Korn, Christoph W; Bach, Dominik R

2015-05-01

Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that--in both the foraging and the casino frames--participants' choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization.

Maintaining Homeostasis by Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Korn, Christoph W.; Bach, Dominik R.

2015-01-01

Living organisms need to maintain energetic homeostasis. For many species, this implies taking actions with delayed consequences. For example, humans may have to decide between foraging for high-calorie but hard-to-get, and low-calorie but easy-to-get food, under threat of starvation. Homeostatic principles prescribe decisions that maximize the probability of sustaining appropriate energy levels across the entire foraging trajectory. Here, predictions from biological principles contrast with predictions from economic decision-making models based on maximizing the utility of the endpoint outcome of a choice. To empirically arbitrate between the predictions of biological and economic models for individual human decision-making, we devised a virtual foraging task in which players chose repeatedly between two foraging environments, lost energy by the passage of time, and gained energy probabilistically according to the statistics of the environment they chose. Reaching zero energy was framed as starvation. We used the mathematics of random walks to derive endpoint outcome distributions of the choices. This also furnished equivalent lotteries, presented in a purely economic, casino-like frame, in which starvation corresponded to winning nothing. Bayesian model comparison showed that—in both the foraging and the casino frames—participants’ choices depended jointly on the probability of starvation and the expected endpoint value of the outcome, but could not be explained by economic models based on combinations of statistical moments or on rank-dependent utility. This implies that under precisely defined constraints biological principles are better suited to explain human decision-making than economic models based on endpoint utility maximization. PMID:26024504

Police response to domestic violence: making decisions about risk and risk management.

PubMed

Perez Trujillo, Monica; Ross, Stuart

2008-04-01

Assessing and responding to risk are key elements in how police respond to domestic violence. However, relatively little is known about the way police make judgments about the risks associated with domestic violence and how these judgments influence their actions. This study examines police decisions about risk in domestic violence incidents when using a risk assessment instrument. Based on a sample of 501 risk assessments completed by police in Australia, this study shows that a limited number of items on the risk assessment instrument are important in police officers' decisions about risk. Statistical analyses show that the victim's level of fear contributes to police officers' judgment on the level of risk and their decisions on which risk management strategy should be used. These findings suggest that research on police responses to domestic violence needs to pay greater attention to situational dynamics and the task requirements of risk-based decision making.

RESTSIM: A Simulation Model That Highlights Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinkhan, George M.; Taylor, James R.

1983-01-01

Describes RESTSIM, an interactive computer simulation program for graduate and upper-level undergraduate management, marketing, and retailing courses, which introduces naive users to simulation as a decision support technique, and provides a vehicle for studying various statistical procedures for evaluating simulation output. (MBR)

Predicting Fecal Indicator Bacteria Concentrations in the South Fork Broad River Watershed Using Virtual Beach

EPA Science Inventory

Virtual Beach (VB) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Although primarily designed for making decisions regarding beach closures or issuance of swimming advisories based on...

A critique of the usefulness of inferential statistics in applied behavior analysis

PubMed Central

Hopkins, B. L.; Cole, Brian L.; Mason, Tina L.

1998-01-01

Researchers continue to recommend that applied behavior analysts use inferential statistics in making decisions about effects of independent variables on dependent variables. In many other approaches to behavioral science, inferential statistics are the primary means for deciding the importance of effects. Several possible uses of inferential statistics are considered. Rather than being an objective means for making decisions about effects, as is often claimed, inferential statistics are shown to be subjective. It is argued that the use of inferential statistics adds nothing to the complex and admittedly subjective nonstatistical methods that are often employed in applied behavior analysis. Attacks on inferential statistics that are being made, perhaps with increasing frequency, by those who are not behavior analysts, are discussed. These attackers are calling for banning the use of inferential statistics in research publications and commonly recommend that behavioral scientists should switch to using statistics aimed at interval estimation or the method of confidence intervals. Interval estimation is shown to be contrary to the fundamental assumption of behavior analysis that only individuals behave. It is recommended that authors who wish to publish the results of inferential statistics be asked to justify them as a means for helping us to identify any ways in which they may be useful. PMID:22478304

Are elderly people with co-morbidities involved adequately in medical decision making when hospitalised? A cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Ekdahl, Anne W; Andersson, Lars; Wiréhn, Ann-Britt; Friedrichsen, Maria

2011-08-18

Medical decision making has long been in focus, but little is known of the preferences and conditions for elderly people with co-morbidities to participate in medical decision making. The main objective of the present study was to investigate the preferred and the actual degree of control, i.e. the role elderly people with co-morbidities wish to assume and actually had with regard to information and participation in medical decision making during their last stay in hospital.This study was a cross-sectional survey including three Swedish hospitals with acute admittance. The participants were patients aged 75 years and above with three or more diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10) and three or more hospitalisations during the last year. We used a questionnaire combined with a telephone interview, using the Control Preference Scale to measure each participant's preferred and actual role in medical decision making during their last stay in hospital. Additional questions were asked about barriers to participation in decision making and preferred information seeking role. The results are presented with descriptive statistics with kappa weights. Of the 297 elderly patients identified, 52.5% responded (n = 156, 46.5% male). Mean age was 83.1 years. Of the respondents, 42 of 153 patients said that they were not asked for their opinion (i.e. no shared decision making). Among the other 111 patients, 49 had their exact preferred level of participation, 37 had less participation than they would have preferred, and 23 had more responsibility than they would have preferred. Kappa statistics showed a moderate agreement between preferred and actual role (κw = 0.57; 95% CI: 0.45-0.69). Most patients wanted to be given more information without having to ask. There was no correlation between age, gender, or education and preferred role. 35% of the patients agreed that they experienced some of the various barriers to decision making that they were asked about: 1) the severity of their illness, 2) doctors with different treatment strategies, 3) difficulty understanding the medical information, and 4) difficulty understanding doctors who did not speak the patient's own language. Physicians are not fully responsive to patient preferences regarding either the degree of communication or the patient's participation in decision making. Barriers to participation can be a problem, and should be taken into account more often when dealing with hospitalised elderly people.

Statistical learning and adaptive decision-making underlie human response time variability in inhibitory control.

PubMed

Ma, Ning; Yu, Angela J

2015-01-01

Response time (RT) is an oft-reported behavioral measure in psychological and neurocognitive experiments, but the high level of observed trial-to-trial variability in this measure has often limited its usefulness. Here, we combine computational modeling and psychophysics to examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in this noisy measure reflect dynamic computations in human statistical learning and corresponding cognitive adjustments. We present data from the stop-signal task (SST), in which subjects respond to a go stimulus on each trial, unless instructed not to by a subsequent, infrequently presented stop signal. We model across-trial learning of stop signal frequency, P(stop), and stop-signal onset time, SSD (stop-signal delay), with a Bayesian hidden Markov model, and within-trial decision-making with an optimal stochastic control model. The combined model predicts that RT should increase with both expected P(stop) and SSD. The human behavioral data (n = 20) bear out this prediction, showing P(stop) and SSD both to be significant, independent predictors of RT, with P(stop) being a more prominent predictor in 75% of the subjects, and SSD being more prominent in the remaining 25%. The results demonstrate that humans indeed readily internalize environmental statistics and adjust their cognitive/behavioral strategy accordingly, and that subtle patterns in RT variability can serve as a valuable tool for validating models of statistical learning and decision-making. More broadly, the modeling tools presented in this work can be generalized to a large body of behavioral paradigms, in order to extract insights about cognitive and neural processing from apparently quite noisy behavioral measures. We also discuss how this behaviorally validated model can then be used to conduct model-based analysis of neural data, in order to help identify specific brain areas for representing and encoding key computational quantities in learning and decision-making.

Critical Views of 8th Grade Students toward Statistical Data in Newspaper Articles: Analysis in Light of Statistical Literacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guler, Mustafa; Gursoy, Kadir; Guven, Bulent

2016-01-01

Understanding and interpreting biased data, decision-making in accordance with the data, and critically evaluating situations involving data are among the fundamental skills necessary in the modern world. To develop these required skills, emphasis on statistical literacy in school mathematics has been gradually increased in recent years. The…

Beyond P Values and Hypothesis Testing: Using the Minimum Bayes Factor to Teach Statistical Inference in Undergraduate Introductory Statistics Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Page, Robert; Satake, Eiki

2017-01-01

While interest in Bayesian statistics has been growing in statistics education, the treatment of the topic is still inadequate in both textbooks and the classroom. Because so many fields of study lead to careers that involve a decision-making process requiring an understanding of Bayesian methods, it is becoming increasingly clear that Bayesian…

Inference as Prediction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Jane

2007-01-01

Inference, or decision making, is seen in curriculum documents as the final step in a statistical investigation. For a formal statistical enquiry this may be associated with sophisticated tests involving probability distributions. For young students without the mathematical background to perform such tests, it is still possible to draw informal…

Two decades of change in transportation reflections from transportation statistics annual reports 1994-2014.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-01-01

The Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) : provides information to support understanding : and decision-making related to the transportation : system, including the size and extent of the : system, how it is used, how well it works, and its : co...

Data Warehousing: How To Make Your Statistics Meaningful.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flaherty, William

2001-01-01

Examines how one school district found a way to turn data collection from a disparate mountain of statistics into more useful information by using their Instructional Decision Support System. System software is explained as is how the district solved some data management challenges. (GR)

Exploring the use of Option Grid™ patient decision aids in a sample of clinics in Poland.

PubMed

Scalia, Peter; Elwyn, Glyn; Barr, Paul; Song, Julia; Zisman-Ilani, Yaara; Lesniak, Monika; Mullin, Sarah; Kurek, Krzysztof; Bushell, Matt; Durand, Marie-Anne

2018-05-29

Research on the implementation of patient decision aids to facilitate shared decision making in clinical settings has steadily increased across Western countries. A study which implements decision aids and measures their impact on shared decision making has yet to be conducted in the Eastern part of Europe. To study the use of Option Grid TM patient decision aids in a sample of Grupa LUX MED clinics in Warsaw, Poland, and measure their impact on shared decision making. We conducted a pre-post interventional study. Following a three-month period of usual care, clinicians from three Grupa LUX MED clinics received a one-hour training session on how to use three Option Grid TM decision aids and were provided with copies for use for four months. Throughout the study, all eligible patients were asked to complete the three-item CollaboRATE patient-reported measure of shared decision making after their clinical encounter. CollaboRATE enables patients to assess the efforts clinicians make to: (i) inform them about their health issues; (ii) listen to 'what matters most'; (iii) integrate their treatment preference in future plans. A Hierarchical Logistic Regression model was performed to understand which variables had an effect on CollaboRATE. 2,048 patients participated in the baseline phase; 1,889 patients participated in the intervention phase. Five of the thirteen study clinicians had a statistically significant increase in their CollaboRATE scores (p<.05) when comparing baseline phase to intervention phase. All five clinicians were located at the same clinic, the only clinic where an overall increase (non-significant) in the mean CollaboRATE top score percentage occurred from baseline phase (M=60 %, SD=0.49; 95 % CI [57-63 %]) to intervention phase (M=62 %, SD=0.49; 95% CI [59-65%]). Only three of those five clinicians who had a statistically significant increase had a clinically significant difference. The implementation of Option Grid TM helped some clinicians practice shared decision making as reflected in CollaboRATE scores, but most clinicians did not have a significant increase in their scores. Our study indicates that the effect of these interventions may be dependent on clinic contexts and clinician engagement. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

Predicting E. Coli and Enterococci Concentrations in the South Fork Broad River Watershed Using Virtual Beach

EPA Science Inventory

Virtual Beach (VB) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at locations of exposure. Although primarily designed for making decisions regarding beach closures or issuance of swimming advisories based on...

The effect of problem solving and decision making skills on tendency to depression and anxiety in patients with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Abazarian, Elaheh; Baboli, M Teimourzadeh; Abazarian, Elham; Ghashghaei, F Esteki

2015-01-01

Diabetes is the most prevalent disease that has involved 177 million people all over the world and, due to this, these patients suffer from depression and anxiety and they should use special methods for controlling the same. The aim of this research is the study of the effect of problem solving and decision making skill on the rate of the tendency to depression and anxiety. This research is a quasi-experimental (case-control) study. Statistically, the population of the present study was all diabetic patients of Qaemshahr who were controlled by physicians in 2011-2012. Thirty files were selected randomly from them and divided into two 15 patients' groups (control and subject group) randomly. The measurement tools were Back depression inventory (21 items) and Zank anxiety questionnaire that were distributed among two groups. Then, the subject group participated in eight sessions of teaching problem solving and decision making courses separately, and the second group (control group) did not receive any instruction. Finally, both groups had passed post-test and the data obtained from the questionnaires were studied by variance analysis statistical methods. The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients' depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety.

The effect of problem solving and decision making skills on tendency to depression and anxiety in patients with type 2 diabetes

PubMed Central

Abazarian, Elaheh; Baboli, M Teimourzadeh; Abazarian, Elham; Ghashghaei, F Esteki

2015-01-01

Background: Diabetes is the most prevalent disease that has involved 177 million people all over the world and, due to this, these patients suffer from depression and anxiety and they should use special methods for controlling the same. The aim of this research is the study of the effect of problem solving and decision making skill on the rate of the tendency to depression and anxiety. Materials and Methods: This research is a quasi-experimental (case-control) study. Statistically, the population of the present study was all diabetic patients of Qaemshahr who were controlled by physicians in 2011-2012. Thirty files were selected randomly from them and divided into two 15 patients’ groups (control and subject group) randomly. The measurement tools were Back depression inventory (21 items) and Zank anxiety questionnaire that were distributed among two groups. Then, the subject group participated in eight sessions of teaching problem solving and decision making courses separately, and the second group (control group) did not receive any instruction. Results: Finally, both groups had passed post-test and the data obtained from the questionnaires were studied by variance analysis statistical methods. Conclusion: The results showed that teaching problem solving and decision making skills was very effective in reducing diabetic patients’ depression and anxiety and resulted in reducing their depression and anxiety. PMID:26261814

Stochastic model for fatigue crack size and cost effective design decisions. [for aerospace structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanagud, S.; Uppaluri, B.

1975-01-01

This paper describes a methodology for making cost effective fatigue design decisions. The methodology is based on a probabilistic model for the stochastic process of fatigue crack growth with time. The development of a particular model for the stochastic process is also discussed in the paper. The model is based on the assumption of continuous time and discrete space of crack lengths. Statistical decision theory and the developed probabilistic model are used to develop the procedure for making fatigue design decisions on the basis of minimum expected cost or risk function and reliability bounds. Selections of initial flaw size distribution, NDT, repair threshold crack lengths, and inspection intervals are discussed.

Information and decision-making needs among people with affective disorders - results of an online survey.

PubMed

Liebherz, Sarah; Tlach, Lisa; Härter, Martin; Dirmaier, Jörg

2015-01-01

Patient decision aids are one possibility for enabling and encouraging patients to participate in medical decisions. This paper aims to describe patients' information and decision-making needs as a prerequisite for the development of high-quality, web-based patient decision aids for affective disorders. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey by using a self-administered questionnaire including items on Internet use, online health information needs, role in decision making, and important treatment decisions, performing descriptive and comparative statistical analyses. A total of 210 people with bipolar disorder/mania as well as 112 people with unipolar depression participated in the survey. Both groups specified general information search as their most relevant information need and decisions on treatment setting (inpatient or outpatient) as well as decisions on pharmacological treatment as the most difficult treatment decisions. For participants with unipolar depression, decisions concerning psychotherapeutic treatment were also especially difficult. Most participants of both groups preferred shared decisions but experienced less shared decisions than desired. Our results show the importance of information for patients with affective disorders, with a focus on pharmacological treatment and on the different treatment settings, and highlight patients' requirements to be involved in the decision-making process. Since our sample reported a chronic course of disease, we do not know if our results are applicable for newly diagnosed patients. Further studies should consider how the reported needs could be addressed in health care practice.

Evaluation of risk communication in a mammography patient decision aid.

PubMed

Klein, Krystal A; Watson, Lindsey; Ash, Joan S; Eden, Karen B

2016-07-01

We characterized patients' comprehension, memory, and impressions of risk communication messages in a patient decision aid (PtDA), Mammopad, and clarified perceived importance of numeric risk information in medical decision making. Participants were 75 women in their forties with average risk factors for breast cancer. We used mixed methods, comprising a risk estimation problem administered within a pretest-posttest design, and semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of 21 women. Participants' positive predictive value estimates of screening mammography improved after using Mammopad. Although risk information was only briefly memorable, through content analysis, we identified themes describing why participants value quantitative risk information, and obstacles to understanding. We describe ways the most complicated graphic was incompletely comprehended. Comprehension of risk information following Mammopad use could be improved. Patients valued receiving numeric statistical information, particularly in pictograph format. Obstacles to understanding risk information, including potential for confusion between statistics, should be identified and mitigated in PtDA design. Using simple pictographs accompanied by text, PtDAs may enhance a shared decision-making discussion. PtDA designers and providers should be aware of benefits and limitations of graphical risk presentations. Incorporating comprehension checks could help identify and correct misapprehensions of graphically presented statistics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of risk communication in a mammography patient decision aid

PubMed Central

Klein, Krystal A.; Watson, Lindsey; Ash, Joan S.; Eden, Karen B.

2016-01-01

Objectives We characterized patients’ comprehension, memory, and impressions of risk communication messages in a patient decision aid (PtDA), Mammopad, and clarified perceived importance of numeric risk information in medical decision making. Methods Participants were 75 women in their forties with average risk factors for breast cancer. We used mixed methods, comprising a risk estimation problem administered within a pretest–posttest design, and semi-structured qualitative interviews with a subsample of 21 women. Results Participants’ positive predictive value estimates of screening mammography improved after using Mammopad. Although risk information was only briefly memorable, through content analysis, we identified themes describing why participants value quantitative risk information, and obstacles to understanding. We describe ways the most complicated graphic was incompletely comprehended. Conclusions Comprehension of risk information following Mammopad use could be improved. Patients valued receiving numeric statistical information, particularly in pictograph format. Obstacles to understanding risk information, including potential for confusion between statistics, should be identified and mitigated in PtDA design. Practice implications Using simple pictographs accompanied by text, PtDAs may enhance a shared decision-making discussion. PtDA designers and providers should be aware of benefits and limitations of graphical risk presentations. Incorporating comprehension checks could help identify and correct misapprehensions of graphically presented statistics PMID:26965020

The relationship between female adolescent self-esteem, decision making, and contraceptive behavior.

PubMed

Commendador, Kathleen

2007-11-01

To examine the relationship between female adolescent self-esteem, decision making, and contraceptive behavior in multiethnic, 14- to 17-year-olds, residing on the Big Island of Hawaii. This was a descriptive cross-sectional survey design using a convenience sample of 98 female adolescents aged 14-17 who came to five different clinics on the Big Island of Hawaii for health care. Along with a brief demographic questionnaire, global self-esteem was measured by Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale, decision making was measured by the Flinders Adolescent Decision Making Questionnaire, and sexual activity and contraception use was measured by a nonnormed Sexual History and Contraceptive Use Questionnaire developed for this study. Descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and correlations were used to analyze associations and correlations between age, global self-esteem, decision self-esteem, decision coping (vigilant and maladaptive), and contraceptive use for sexually active female adolescents. No significant associations or correlations were found between age, global self-esteem, decision self-esteem, decision coping (vigilance), and the decision to use contraception in sexually active adolescent females. There was, however, significant negative correlation (p < .05) between overall maladaptive decision making and contraceptive use in sexually active female adolescents. This suggests that sexually active adolescent females with higher maladaptive scores are less likely to use contraception. There was also significant association (p < .05) between maladaptive decision making in contraceptive use and sexually active female adolescents. For every one unit increase on the maladaptive scale, the odds of using contraception were estimated to decrease by 7%. Adolescence is a period of transition that involves biological, cognitive, psychological, and social changes. During the vulnerable transition period of adolescence, decisions relating to contraception may occur. Interventions focused on improving decision-making skills and stimulating thinking around not only sexual issues but also on relationship and communication in adolescent issues may facilitate more competent decision making. Understanding the relationship between female adolescent self-esteem, decision making, and contraceptive behavior has contributed to the knowledge base about female contraceptive behavior. Gaining further insight into these relationships will help healthcare professionals provide counseling and health care to female adolescents.

Making Decisions with Data: Are We Environmentally Friendly?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

English, Lyn; Watson, Jane

2016-01-01

Statistical literacy is a vital component of numeracy. Students need to learn to critically evaluate and interpret statistical information if they are to become informed citizens. This article examines a Year 5 unit of work that uses the data collection and analysis cycle within a sustainability context.

Study on Conversion Between Momentum and Contrarian Based on Fractal Game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xu; Song, Guanghui; Deng, Yan; Xu, Lin

2015-06-01

Based on the fractal game which is performed by the majority and the minority, the fractal market theory (FMT) is employed to describe the features of investors' decision-making. Accordingly, the process of fractal games is formed in order to analyze the statistical features of conversion between momentum and contrarian. The result shows that among three fractal game mechanisms, the statistical feature of simulated return rate series is much more similar to log returns on actual series. In addition, the conversion between momentum and contrarian is also extremely similar to real situation, which can reflect the effectiveness of using fractal game in analyzing the conversion between momentum and contrarian. Moreover, it also provides decision-making reference which helps investors develop effective investment strategy.

Patient-reported outcomes in randomised controlled trials of gynaecological cancers: investigating methodological quality and impact on clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Efficace, Fabio; Jacobs, Marc; Pusic, Andrea; Greimel, Elfriede; Piciocchi, Alfonso; Kieffer, Jacobien M; Gilbert, Alexandra; Fayers, Peter; Blazeby, Jane

2014-07-01

The aim for this study is to investigate the methodological quality and potential impact on clinical decision making of patient reported outcome (PRO) assessment in randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in the gynaecological cancer sites. A systematic review identified RCTs published between January 2004 and June 2012. Relevant studies were evaluated using a pre-determined extraction form which included: (1) Trial demographics and clinical and PRO characteristics; (2) level of PRO reporting and (3) bias, assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. All studies were additionally analysed in relation to their relevance in supporting clinical decision making. Fifty RCTs enrolling 24,991 patients were identified. In eight RCTs (16%) a PRO was the primary end-point. Twenty-one studies (42%) were carried out in a multi-national context. Where statistically significant PRO differences between treatments were found, it related in most cases to both symptoms and domains other than symptoms (n=17, 57%). The majority of studies (n=42, 84%) did not mention the mode of administration nor the methods of collecting PRO data. Statistical approaches for dealing with missing data were only explicitly mentioned in nine RCTs (18%). Sixteen RCTs (32%) were considered to be of high-quality and thus able to inform clinical decision making. Higher-quality PRO studies were generally associated with RCTs that were at a low risk of bias. This study showed that RCTs with PROs were generally well designed and conducted. In a third the information was very informative to fully understand the pros and cons of PROs treatment decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical group decision making in natural resources: Methodology and application

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmoldt, D.L.; Peterson, D.L.

2000-01-01

Group decision making is becoming increasingly important in natural resource management and associated scientific applications, because multiple values are treated coincidentally in time and space, multiple resource specialists are needed, and multiple stakeholders must be included in the decision process. Decades of social science research on decision making in groups have provided insights into the impediments to effective group processes and on techniques that can be applied in a group context. Nevertheless, little integration and few applications of these results have occurred in resource management decision processes, where formal groups are integral, either directly or indirectly. A group decision-making methodology is introduced as an effective approach for temporary, formal groups (e.g., workshops). It combines the following three components: (1) brainstorming to generate ideas; (2) the analytic hierarchy process to produce judgments, manage conflict, enable consensus, and plan for implementation; and (3) a discussion template (straw document). Resulting numerical assessments of alternative decision priorities can be analyzed statistically to indicate where group member agreement occurs and where priority values are significantly different. An application of this group process to fire research program development in a workshop setting indicates that the process helps focus group deliberations; mitigates groupthink, nondecision, and social loafing pitfalls; encourages individual interaction; identifies irrational judgments; and provides a large amount of useful quantitative information about group preferences. This approach can help facilitate scientific assessments and other decision-making processes in resource management.

Socioeconomic Differences in Informed Decisions About Down Syndrome Screening: A Systematic Review and Research Agenda.

PubMed

Smith, Sian K; Sousa, Mariana S; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Halliday, Jane; Peate, Michelle; Fransen, Mirjam

2016-08-01

Supporting pregnant women to make informed choices about Down syndrome screening is widely endorsed. We reviewed the literature on: (a) the association between socioeconomic position and informed choices and decision-making about Down syndrome screening, and (b) the possible mediating variables (e.g., health literacy, numeracy skills, behavioral and communication variables) that might explain the relationship. EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were searched from January 1999 to September 2014. The methodological quality of studies was determined by predefined criteria regarding the research aims, study design, study population and setting, measurement tools, and statistical analysis. A total of 33 studies met the inclusion criteria. Women from lower socioeconomic groups experience greater difficulties making informed choices about Down syndrome screening compared to women from higher socioeconomic groups. Most studies focus on individual dimensions of informed decision-making rather than assessing elements in conjunction with one another. Few studies have explored why there are socioeconomic differences in women's ability to make informed screening decisions. Future work is needed to identify mediating variables in this pathway. Systematic evidence-based intervention development to improve communication, understanding, and decision-making about Down syndrome screening is needed to ensure that women have an equal opportunity to make an informed choice about screening regardless of their socioeconomic position.

Information and Decision-Making Needs Among People with Anxiety Disorders: Results of an Online Survey.

PubMed

Liebherz, Sarah; Härter, Martin; Dirmaier, Jörg; Tlach, Lisa

2015-12-01

People with anxiety disorders are faced with treatment decisions considerably affecting their life. Patient decision aids are aimed at enabling patients to deliberate treatment options based on individual values and to participate in medical decisions. This is the first study to determine patients' information and decision-making needs as a pre-requisite for the development of patient decision aids for anxiety disorders. An online cross-sectional survey was conducted between January and April 2013 on the e-health portal http://www.psychenet.de by using a self-administered questionnaire with items on internet use, online health information needs, role in decision making and important treatment decisions. Descriptive and inferential statistical as well as qualitative data analyses were performed. A total of 60 people with anxiety disorders with a mean age of 33.3 years (SD 10.5) participated in the survey. The most prevalent reasons for online health information search were the need for general information on anxiety disorders, the search for a physician or psychiatrist and the insufficiency of information given by the healthcare provider. Respondents experienced less shared and more autonomous decisions than they preferred. They assessed decisions on psychotherapy, medication, and treatment setting (inpatient or outpatient) as the most difficult decisions. Our results confirm the importance of offering patient decision aids for people with anxiety disorders that encourage patients to participate in decision making by providing information about the pros and cons of evidence-based treatment options.

Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britton, Paul; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert

2017-01-01

Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

The unrealized promise of infant statistical word-referent learning

PubMed Central

Smith, Linda B.; Suanda, Sumarga H.; Yu, Chen

2014-01-01

Recent theory and experiments offer a new solution as to how infant learners may break into word learning, by using cross-situational statistics to find the underlying word-referent mappings. Computational models demonstrate the in-principle plausibility of this statistical learning solution and experimental evidence shows that infants can aggregate and make statistically appropriate decisions from word-referent co-occurrence data. We review these contributions and then identify the gaps in current knowledge that prevent a confident conclusion about whether cross-situational learning is the mechanism through which infants break into word learning. We propose an agenda to address that gap that focuses on detailing the statistics in the learning environment and the cognitive processes that make use of those statistics. PMID:24637154

Decision-making when data and inferences are not conclusive: risk-benefit and acceptable regret approach.

PubMed

Hozo, Iztok; Schell, Michael J; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2008-07-01

The absolute truth in research is unobtainable, as no evidence or research hypothesis is ever 100% conclusive. Therefore, all data and inferences can in principle be considered as "inconclusive." Scientific inference and decision-making need to take into account errors, which are unavoidable in the research enterprise. The errors can occur at the level of conclusions that aim to discern the truthfulness of research hypothesis based on the accuracy of research evidence and hypothesis, and decisions, the goal of which is to enable optimal decision-making under present and specific circumstances. To optimize the chance of both correct conclusions and correct decisions, the synthesis of all major statistical approaches to clinical research is needed. The integration of these approaches (frequentist, Bayesian, and decision-analytic) can be accomplished through formal risk:benefit (R:B) analysis. This chapter illustrates the rational choice of a research hypothesis using R:B analysis based on decision-theoretic expected utility theory framework and the concept of "acceptable regret" to calculate the threshold probability of the "truth" above which the benefit of accepting a research hypothesis outweighs its risks.

Genetic Testing and Post-Testing Decision Making among BRCA-Positive Mutation Women: A Psychosocial Approach.

PubMed

Hesse-Biber, Sharlene; An, Chen

2016-10-01

Through an analysis of an online survey of women who tested positive for the BRCA genetic mutation for breast cancer, this research uses a social constructionist and feminist standpoint lens to understand the decision-making process that leads BRCA-positive women to choose genetic testing. Additionally, this research examines how they socially construct and understand their risk for developing breast cancer, as well as which treatment options they undergo post-testing. BRCA-positive women re-frame their statistical medical risk for developing cancer and their post-testing treatment choices through a broad psychosocial context of engagement that also includes their social networks. Important psychosocial factors drive women's medical decisions, such as individual feelings of guilt and vulnerability, and the degree of perceived social support. Women who felt guilty and fearful that they might pass the BRCA gene to their children were more likely to undergo risk reducing surgery. Women with at least one daughter and women without children were more inclined toward the risk reducing surgery compared to those with only sons. These psychosocial factors and social network engagements serve as a "nexus of decision making" that does not, for the most part, mirror the medical assessments of statistical odds for hereditary cancer development, nor the specific treatment protocols outlined by the medical establishment.

Constructing Sample Space with Combinatorial Reasoning: A Mixed Methods Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGalliard, William A., III.

2012-01-01

Recent curricular developments suggest that students at all levels need to be statistically literate and able to efficiently and accurately make probabilistic decisions. Furthermore, statistical literacy is a requirement to being a well-informed citizen of society. Research also recognizes that the ability to reason probabilistically is supported…

Soldier Decision-Making for Allocation of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Assets

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

Judgments; also called Algoritmic or Statistical Judgements Computer Science , Psychology, and Statistics Actuarial or algorithmic...Jan. 2011. [17] R. M. Dawes, D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, “Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment,” Science , vol. 243, no. 4899, pp. 1668–1674, 1989. [18...School of Computer Science

Assessment of satisfaction with care and decision-making among English and Spanish-speaking family members of neuroscience ICU patients.

PubMed

Hagerty, Thomas A; Velázquez, Ángela; Schmidt, J Michael; Falo, Cristina

2016-02-01

Patients' and family members' experiences of hospital care are important indicators of quality. "Black, Asian, and Hispanic patients are more at risk than White patients for decreased satisfaction with care." In addition, of any of these groups, Hispanic patients were most likely to report a lack of patient-centered care. In the intensive care setting, (ICU) previous research has indicated that the needs and satisfaction of family members of neurological ICU patients are different from those of family members of other types of ICU patients. The purpose of this study was to determine if there were any differences between English-speaking and Spanish-speaking family members of patients in a neurological ICU. This study was a single center prospective study conducted over a 10-month period from April 2013 to February 2014 in the 18-bed neuroscience ICU of a large, urban, academic medical center. The Family Satisfaction with ICU (FS-ICU) questionnaire was used; it provides an overall score and has two factors: satisfaction with care and satisfaction with decision-making. There was no statistical significance between the two groups in overall satisfaction or in satisfaction with care, however Spanish-speakers (n=22) were significantly less satisfied (p=.04) than English-speakers (n=50) with decision-making. There were three other discreet variables in which Spanish-speakers were also less satisfied: (a) management of patients' pain (OR 3.16, 95% CI [1.12, 8.9]) (b) management of patients' breathlessness (OR 3.5, 95% CI [1.23, 9.96]) as well as (c) ease of getting information (OR 3.25, 95% CI [1.09, 9.64]). Using a standardized survey it was found that Spanish-speakers were statistically less satisfied with decision-making than English-speakers. Additionally, Spanish-speakers were statistically less satisfied with management of patients' pain and breathlessness and ease of getting information. Based on these findings, increased vigilance is recommended regarding decision-making processes of Hispanic-families, especially with regard to provision of information. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Responding to Nonwords in the Lexical Decision Task: Insights from the English Lexicon Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yap, Melvin J.; Sibley, Daragh E.; Balota, David A.; Ratcliff, Roger; Rueckl, Jay

2015-01-01

Researchers have extensively documented how various statistical properties of words (e.g., word frequency) influence lexical processing. However, the impact of lexical variables on nonword decision-making performance is less clear. This gap is surprising, because a better specification of the mechanisms driving nonword responses may provide…

Data mining in child welfare.

PubMed

Schoech, D; Quinn, A; Rycraft, J R

2000-01-01

Data mining is the sifting through of voluminous data to extract knowledge for decision making. This article illustrates the context, concepts, processes, techniques, and tools of data mining, using statistical and neural network analyses on a dataset concerning employee turnover. The resulting models and their predictive capability, advantages and disadvantages, and implications for decision support are highlighted.

75 FR 78678 - Proposed Methodology for Respondent Selection in Antidumping Proceedings; Request for Comment

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-16

... evidence of shipment from a non-selected company before making its respondent-selection decision. However... administering authority at the time of selection, or (2) exporters and producers accounting for the largest... accompanying Issues and Decision Memorandum at Comment 1A. Therefore, to ensure the statistical validity of the...

Nurses' decision making in heart failure management based on heart failure certification status.

PubMed

Albert, Nancy M; Bena, James F; Buxbaum, Denise; Martensen, Linda; Morrison, Shannon L; Prasun, Marilyn A; Stamp, Kelly D

Research findings on the value of nurse certification were based on subjective perceptions or biased by correlations of certification status and global clinical factors. In heart failure, the value of certification is unknown. Examine the value of certification based nurses' decision-making. Cross-sectional study of nurses who completed heart failure clinical vignettes that reflected decision-making in clinical heart failure scenarios. Statistical tests included multivariable linear, logistic and proportional odds logistic regression models. Of nurses (N = 605), 29.1% were heart failure certified, 35.0% were certified in another specialty/job role and 35.9% were not certified. In multivariable modeling, nurses certified in heart failure (versus not heart failure certified) had higher clinical vignette scores (p = 0.002), reflecting higher evidence-based decision making; nurses with another specialty/role certification (versus no certification) did not (p = 0.62). Heart failure certification, but not in other specialty/job roles was associated with decisions that reflected delivery of high-quality care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

2018-04-01

This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

The use of a cognitive task analysis-based multimedia program to teach surgical decision making in flexor tendon repair.

PubMed

Luker, Kali R; Sullivan, Maura E; Peyre, Sarah E; Sherman, Randy; Grunwald, Tiffany

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare the surgical knowledge of residents before and after receiving a cognitive task analysis-based multimedia teaching module. Ten plastic surgery residents were evaluated performing flexor tendon repair on 3 occasions. Traditional learning occurred between the first and second trial and served as the control. A teaching module was introduced as an intervention between the second and third trial using cognitive task analysis to illustrate decision-making skills. All residents showed improvement in their decision-making ability when performing flexor tendon repair after each surgical procedure. The group improved through traditional methods as well as exposure to our talk-aloud protocol (P > .01). After being trained using the cognitive task analysis curriculum the group displayed a statistically significant knowledge expansion (P < .01). Residents receiving cognitive task analysis-based multimedia surgical curriculum instruction achieved greater command of problem solving and are better equipped to make correct decisions in flexor tendon repair.

Relationship Power, Sexual Decision Making, and HIV Risk Among Midlife and Older Women.

PubMed

Altschuler, Joanne; Rhee, Siyon

2015-01-01

The number of midlife and older women with HIV/AIDS is high and increasing, especially among women of color. This article addresses these demographic realities by reporting on findings about self-esteem, relationship power, and HIV risk from a pilot study of midlife and older women. A purposive sample (N = 110) of ethnically, economically, and educationally diverse women 40 years and older from the Greater Los Angeles Area was surveyed to determine their levels of self-esteem, general relationship power, sexual decision-making power, safer sex behaviors, and HIV knowledge. Women with higher levels of self-esteem exercised greater power in their relationships with their partner. Women with higher levels of general relationship power and self-esteem tend to exercise greater power in sexual decision making, such as having sex and choosing sexual acts. Income and sexual decision-making power were statistically significant in predicting the use of condoms. Implications and recommendations for future HIV/AIDS research and intervention targeting midlife and older women are presented.

Risk patterns and correlated brain activities. Multidimensional statistical analysis of FMRI data in economic decision making study.

PubMed

van Bömmel, Alena; Song, Song; Majer, Piotr; Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Härdle, Wolfgang K

2014-07-01

Decision making usually involves uncertainty and risk. Understanding which parts of the human brain are activated during decisions under risk and which neural processes underly (risky) investment decisions are important goals in neuroeconomics. Here, we analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data on 17 subjects who were exposed to an investment decision task from Mohr, Biele, Krugel, Li, and Heekeren (in NeuroImage 49, 2556-2563, 2010b). We obtain a time series of three-dimensional images of the blood-oxygen-level dependent (BOLD) fMRI signals. We apply a panel version of the dynamic semiparametric factor model (DSFM) presented in Park, Mammen, Wolfgang, and Borak (in Journal of the American Statistical Association 104(485), 284-298, 2009) and identify task-related activations in space and dynamics in time. With the panel DSFM (PDSFM) we can capture the dynamic behavior of the specific brain regions common for all subjects and represent the high-dimensional time-series data in easily interpretable low-dimensional dynamic factors without large loss of variability. Further, we classify the risk attitudes of all subjects based on the estimated low-dimensional time series. Our classification analysis successfully confirms the estimated risk attitudes derived directly from subjects' decision behavior.

Bayesian statistics in medicine: a 25 year review.

PubMed

Ashby, Deborah

2006-11-15

This review examines the state of Bayesian thinking as Statistics in Medicine was launched in 1982, reflecting particularly on its applicability and uses in medical research. It then looks at each subsequent five-year epoch, with a focus on papers appearing in Statistics in Medicine, putting these in the context of major developments in Bayesian thinking and computation with reference to important books, landmark meetings and seminal papers. It charts the growth of Bayesian statistics as it is applied to medicine and makes predictions for the future. From sparse beginnings, where Bayesian statistics was barely mentioned, Bayesian statistics has now permeated all the major areas of medical statistics, including clinical trials, epidemiology, meta-analyses and evidence synthesis, spatial modelling, longitudinal modelling, survival modelling, molecular genetics and decision-making in respect of new technologies.

A role of decision-making competency in science learning utilizing a social valuation framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katsuo, Akihito

2005-11-01

The role of decision-making in learning performance has been an occasional topic in the research literature in science education, but rarely has it been a central issue in the field. Nonetheless, recent studies regarding the topic in several fields other than education, such as cognitive neuroscience and social choice theory, indicate the fundamental importance(s) of the topic. This study focuses on a possible role of decision-making in science learning. Initially the study was designed to probe the decision-making ability of elementary school children with a modified version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The experiment involved six Montessori 3rd and 4th grade students as the experimental group and eight public school 3rd and 4th grade students as the control group. The result of the modified IGT revealed a tendency in choice trajectories favoring children at the Montessori school. However, the probabilistic value went below the statistically significant level set by the U test. A further study focused on the impact of better decision-making ability revealed in the first experiment on performances with a science learning module that emphasized collective reasoning. The instruction was based on a set of worksheets with multiple choices on which students were asked to make predictions with and to provide supportive arguments regarding outcomes of experiments introduced in the worksheet. Then the whole class was involved with a real experiment to see which choice was correct. The findings in the study indicated that the Montessori students often obtained higher scores than non-Montessori students in making decision with a tendency of consistency in terms of their choices of the alternatives on the worksheets. The findings of the experiments were supported by a correlational analysis that was performed at the end of study. Although no statistically significant correlations were found, there was a tendency for positively associative shifts between the scores of the modified IGT and the scores for the performances on the science module for the Montessori students.

Decision-making Capacity for Treatment of Psychotic Patients on Long Acting Injectable Antipsychotic Treatment.

PubMed

Nystazaki, Maria; Pikouli, Katerina; Tsapakis, Eva-Maria; Karanikola, Maria; Ploumpidis, Dimitrios; Alevizopoulos, Giorgos

2018-04-01

Providing informed, consent requires patients' Decision-Making Capacity for treatment. We evaluated the Decision Making Capacity of outpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder on treatment with Long Acting Injectable Antipsychotic medication. This is a retrospective, cross-sectional, correlational study conducted at two Depot Clinics in Athens, Greece. Participants included 65 outpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder on treatment with Long Acting Injectable Antipsychotics. Over half of the participants showed poor understanding of the information given regarding their disease and treatment (Understanding subscale), however >70% seemed to comprehend the relevance of this information to their medical condition (Appreciation subscale). Moreover, half of the participants reported adequate reasoning ability (Reasoning subscale), whilst patients who gained >7% of their body weight scored statistically significantly higher in the subscales of Understanding and Appreciation. Our results suggest that there is a proportion of patients with significantly diminished Decision Making Capacity, hence a full assessment is recommended in order to track them down. Further research is needed to better interpret the association between antipsychotic induced weight gain and Decision Making Capacity in patients suffering from schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Age-related quantitative and qualitative changes in decision making ability.

PubMed

Isella, Valeria; Mapelli, Cristina; Morielli, Nadia; Pelati, Oriana; Franceschi, Massimo; Appollonio, Ildebrando Marco

2008-01-01

The "frontal aging hypothesis" predicts that brain senescence affects predominantly the prefrontal regions. Preliminary evidence has recently been gathered in favour of an age-related change in a typically frontal process, i.e. decision making, using the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), but overall findings have been conflicting. Following the traditional scoring method, coupled with a qualitative analysis, in the present study we compared IGT performance of 40 young (mean age: 27.9+/-4.7) and 40 old (mean age: 65.4+/-8.6) healthy adults and of 18 patients affected by frontal lobe dementia of mild severity (mean age: 65.1+/-7.4, mean MMSE score: 24.1+/-3.9). Quantitative findings support the notion that decision making ability declines with age; moreover, it approximates the impairment observed in executive dysfunction due to neurodegeneration. Results of the qualitative analysis did not reach statistical significance for the motivational and learning decision making components considered, but approached significance for the attentional component for elderly versus young normals, suggesting a possible decrease in the ability to maintain sustained attention during complex and prolonged tasks as the putative deficit underlying impaired decision making in normal aging.

Parents' and Physicians' Perceptions of Children's Participation in Decision-making in Paediatric Oncology: A Quantitative Study.

PubMed

Rost, Michael; Wangmo, Tenzin; Niggli, Felix; Hartmann, Karin; Hengartner, Heinz; Ansari, Marc; Brazzola, Pierluigi; Rischewski, Johannes; Beck-Popovic, Maja; Kühne, Thomas; Elger, Bernice S

2017-12-01

The goal is to present how shared decision-making in paediatric oncology occurs from the viewpoints of parents and physicians. Eight Swiss Pediatric Oncology Group centres participated in this prospective study. The sample comprised a parent and physician of the minor patient (<18 years). Surveys were statistically analysed by comparing physicians' and parents' perspectives and by evaluating factors associated with children's actual involvement. Perspectives of ninety-one parents and twenty physicians were obtained for 151 children. Results indicate that for six aspects of information provision examined, parents' and physicians' perceptions differed. Moreover, parents felt that the children were more competent to understand diagnosis and prognosis, assessed the disease of the children as worse, and reported higher satisfaction with decision-making on the part of the children. A patient's age and gender predicted involvement. Older children and girls were more likely to be involved. In the decision-making process, parents held a less active role than they actually wanted. Physicians should take measures to ensure that provided information is understood correctly. Furthermore, they should work towards creating awareness for systematic differences between parents and physicians with respect to the perception of the child, the disease, and shared decision-making.

Beyond evidence-based nursing: tools for practice.

PubMed

Jutel, Annemarie

2008-05-01

This commentary shares my views of evidence-based nursing as a framework for practice, pointing out its limitations and identifying a wider base of appraisal tools required for making good clinical decisions. As the principles of evidence-based nursing take an increasingly greater hold on nursing education, policy and management, it is important to consider the range of other decision-making tools which are subordinated by this approach. This article summarizes nursing's simultaneous reliance on and critique of evidence-based practice (EBP) in a context of inadequate critical reasoning. It then provides an exemplar of the limitations of evidence-based practice and offers an alternative view of important precepts of decision-making. I identify means by which nurses can develop skills to engage in informed and robust critique of practices and their underpinning rationale. Nurses need to be able to locate and assess useful and reliable information for decision-making. This skill is based on a range of tools which include, but also go beyond EBP including: information literacy, humanities, social sciences, public health, statistics, marketing, ethics and much more. This essay prompts nursing managers to reflect upon whether a flurried enthusiasm to adopt EBP neglects other important decision-making skills which provide an even stronger foundation for robust nursing decisions.

Patients' perception of their involvement in shared treatment decision making: Key factors in the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Veilleux, Sophie; Noiseux, Isabelle; Lachapelle, Nathalie; Kohen, Rita; Vachon, Luc; Guay, Brian White; Bitton, Alain; Rioux, John D

2018-02-01

This study aims to characterize the relationships between the quality of the information given by the physician, the involvement of the patient in shared decision making (SDM), and outcomes in terms of satisfaction and anxiety pertaining to the treatment of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). A Web survey was conducted among 200 Canadian patients affected with IBD. The theoretical model of SDM was adjusted using path analysis. SAS software was used for all statistical analyses. The quality of the knowledge transfer between the physician and the patient is significantly associated with the components of SDM: information comprehension, patient involvement and decision certainty about the chosen treatment. In return, patient involvement in SDM is significantly associated with higher satisfaction and, as a result, lower anxiety as regards treatment selection. This study demonstrates the importance of involving patients in shared treatment decision making in the context of IBD. Understanding shared decision making may motivate patients to be more active in understanding the relevant information for treatment selection, as it is related to their level of satisfaction, anxiety and adherence to treatment. This relationship should encourage physicians to promote shared decision making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impaired Decision-Making, Higher Impulsivity, and Drug Severity in Substance Dependence and Pathological Gambling.

PubMed

Krmpotich, Theodore; Mikulich-Gilbertson, Susan; Sakai, Joseph; Thompson, Laetitia; Banich, Marie T; Tanabe, Jody

2015-01-01

Substance use disorder is characterized by impaired decision making, impulsivity, and risk taking. Pathological gambling shares many of these characteristics, and having both diagnoses may be associated with greater problems than either diagnosis alone. We investigated whether among substance-dependent individuals, comorbid pathological gambling would be associated with worse decision making, greater impulsivity, risk taking, and drug severity. Ninety-six substance-dependent individuals were recruited from a residential treatment program and divided into 1 of the 2 groups depending on whether they met Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition, criteria for pathological gambling (SDPG, n = 26) or not (SD, n = 70). Ninety-two controls were recruited from the community. Participants completed a decision-making task (modified Iowa Gambling Task), measures of impulsivity (Barratt Impulsivity Scale and Delay Discounting), and risk taking (Balloon Analog Risk Task). Decision making was analyzed using a computational model. We tested for group differences using analysis of covariance or Kruskal-Wallis and appropriate post-hoc tests. The groups differed in decision-making parameters (P < 0.001) and self-reported impulsivity (P < 0.001). All post-hoc comparisons were significant on these measures, and indicated stepwise changes in controls, followed by SD, followed by SDPG, with SDPG performing worse on decision making and being more impulsive. Compared with SD, SDPG had greater drug severity (P < 0.001). No group differences were observed in delay discounting or risk taking. Compared with individuals with substance dependence without pathological gambling, those with both disorders demonstrated worse decision making and significantly more drug-related symptoms. When evaluating patients with substance dependence, clinicians should consider diagnostic assessments for gambling, as the co-occurrence of both disorders may impact clinical characteristics.

Optimal multisensory decision-making in a reaction-time task.

PubMed

Drugowitsch, Jan; DeAngelis, Gregory C; Klier, Eliana M; Angelaki, Dora E; Pouget, Alexandre

2014-06-14

Humans and animals can integrate sensory evidence from various sources to make decisions in a statistically near-optimal manner, provided that the stimulus presentation time is fixed across trials. Little is known about whether optimality is preserved when subjects can choose when to make a decision (reaction-time task), nor when sensory inputs have time-varying reliability. Using a reaction-time version of a visual/vestibular heading discrimination task, we show that behavior is clearly sub-optimal when quantified with traditional optimality metrics that ignore reaction times. We created a computational model that accumulates evidence optimally across both cues and time, and trades off accuracy with decision speed. This model quantitatively explains subjects's choices and reaction times, supporting the hypothesis that subjects do, in fact, accumulate evidence optimally over time and across sensory modalities, even when the reaction time is under the subject's control.

Impacts of Maximizing Tendencies on Experience-Based Decisions.

PubMed

Rim, Hye Bin

2017-06-01

Previous research on risky decisions has suggested that people tend to make different choices depending on whether they acquire the information from personally repeated experiences or from statistical summary descriptions. This phenomenon, called as a description-experience gap, was expected to be moderated by the individual difference in maximizing tendencies, a desire towards maximizing decisional outcome. Specifically, it was hypothesized that maximizers' willingness to engage in extensive information searching would lead maximizers to make experience-based decisions as payoff distributions were given explicitly. A total of 262 participants completed four decision problems. Results showed that maximizers, compared to non-maximizers, drew more samples before making a choice but reported lower confidence levels on both the accuracy of knowledge gained from experiences and the likelihood of satisfactory outcomes. Additionally, maximizers exhibited smaller description-experience gaps than non-maximizers as expected. The implications of the findings and unanswered questions for future research were discussed.

Teaching statistics to nursing students: an expert panel consensus.

PubMed

Hayat, Matthew J; Eckardt, Patricia; Higgins, Melinda; Kim, MyoungJin; Schmiege, Sarah J

2013-06-01

Statistics education is a necessary element of nursing education, and its inclusion is recommended in the American Association of Colleges of Nursing guidelines for nurse training at all levels. This article presents a cohesive summary of an expert panel discussion, "Teaching Statistics to Nursing Students," held at the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings. All panelists were statistics experts, had extensive teaching and consulting experience, and held faculty appointments in a U.S.-based nursing college or school. The panel discussed degree-specific curriculum requirements, course content, how to ensure nursing students understand the relevance of statistics, approaches to integrating statistics consulting knowledge, experience with classroom instruction, use of knowledge from the statistics education research field to make improvements in statistics education for nursing students, and classroom pedagogy and instruction on the use of statistical software. Panelists also discussed the need for evidence to make data-informed decisions about statistics education and training for nurses. Copyright 2013, SLACK Incorporated.

Using statistical process control to make data-based clinical decisions.

PubMed

Pfadt, A; Wheeler, D J

1995-01-01

Applied behavior analysis is based on an investigation of variability due to interrelationships among antecedents, behavior, and consequences. This permits testable hypotheses about the causes of behavior as well as for the course of treatment to be evaluated empirically. Such information provides corrective feedback for making data-based clinical decisions. This paper considers how a different approach to the analysis of variability based on the writings of Walter Shewart and W. Edwards Deming in the area of industrial quality control helps to achieve similar objectives. Statistical process control (SPC) was developed to implement a process of continual product improvement while achieving compliance with production standards and other requirements for promoting customer satisfaction. SPC involves the use of simple statistical tools, such as histograms and control charts, as well as problem-solving techniques, such as flow charts, cause-and-effect diagrams, and Pareto charts, to implement Deming's management philosophy. These data-analytic procedures can be incorporated into a human service organization to help to achieve its stated objectives in a manner that leads to continuous improvement in the functioning of the clients who are its customers. Examples are provided to illustrate how SPC procedures can be used to analyze behavioral data. Issues related to the application of these tools for making data-based clinical decisions and for creating an organizational climate that promotes their routine use in applied settings are also considered.

Decision-Making for Induced Abortion in the Accra Metropolis, Ghana.

PubMed

Gbagbo, Fred Yao; Amo-Adjei, Joshua; Laar, Amos

2015-06-01

Decision-making for induced abortion can be influenced by various circumstances including those surrounding onset of a pregnancy. There are various dimensions to induced abortion decision-making among women who had an elective induced abortion in a cosmopolitan urban setting in Ghana, which this paper examined. A cross-sectional mixed method study was conducted between January and December 2011 with 401 women who had undergone an abortion procedure in the preceding 12 months. Whereas the quantitative data were analysed with descriptive statistics, thematic analysis was applied to the qualitative data. The study found that women of various profiles have different reasons for undergoing abortion. Women considered the circumstances surrounding onset of pregnancy, person responsible for the pregnancy, gestational age at decision to terminate, and social, economic and medical considerations. Pressures from partners, career progression and reproductive intentions of women reinforced these reasons. First time pregnancies were mostly aborted regardless of gestational ages and partners' consent. Policies and programmes targeted at safe abortion care are needed to guide informed decisions on induced abortions.

A probabilistic, distributed, recursive mechanism for decision-making in the brain

PubMed Central

Gurney, Kevin N.

2018-01-01

Decision formation recruits many brain regions, but the procedure they jointly execute is unknown. Here we characterize its essential composition, using as a framework a novel recursive Bayesian algorithm that makes decisions based on spike-trains with the statistics of those in sensory cortex (MT). Using it to simulate the random-dot-motion task, we demonstrate it quantitatively replicates the choice behaviour of monkeys, whilst predicting losses of otherwise usable information from MT. Its architecture maps to the recurrent cortico-basal-ganglia-thalamo-cortical loops, whose components are all implicated in decision-making. We show that the dynamics of its mapped computations match those of neural activity in the sensorimotor cortex and striatum during decisions, and forecast those of basal ganglia output and thalamus. This also predicts which aspects of neural dynamics are and are not part of inference. Our single-equation algorithm is probabilistic, distributed, recursive, and parallel. Its success at capturing anatomy, behaviour, and electrophysiology suggests that the mechanism implemented by the brain has these same characteristics. PMID:29614077

Impact of a clinical decision making module on the attitudes and perceptions of surgical trainees.

PubMed

Bhatt, Nikita R; Doherty, Eva M; Mansour, Ehab; Traynor, Oscar; Ridgway, Paul F

2016-09-01

Decision making, a cognitive non-technical skill, is a key element for clinical practice in surgery. Specific teaching about methods in clinical decision making (CDM) is a very recent addition to surgical training curricula in the UK and Ireland. Baseline trainee opinion on decision-making modules is unknown. The Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland's postgraduate training boot camp inaugural CDM module was investigated to elucidate the impact on the attitudes of CDM naïf trainees. Three standardized two-hour workshops for three trainee groups were delivered. The trainees were assessed by an anonymous questionnaire before and after the module. Change in attitude of the trainees was determined by comparing Likert scale ratings using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Fifty-seven newly appointed basic surgical trainees attended these workshops. A statistically significant rise in the proportion of candidates recognizing the importance of being taught CDM skills (P == 0.002) revealed the positive impact of the module, as did the increased understanding of different aspects of CDM like shared decision making (P == 0.035) and different styles of decision making (P == 0.013). These observed positive changes in trainee understanding and attitude toward CDM teaching supports the adoption of standardized modules into the curricula. More study is needed to define whether these modules will have measurable sustained enhancements of CDM skills. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Choosing treatment and screening options congruent with values: Do decision aids help? Sub-analysis of a systematic review.

PubMed

Munro, Sarah; Stacey, Dawn; Lewis, Krystina B; Bansback, Nick

2016-04-01

To understand how well patients make value congruent decisions with and without patient decision aids (PtDAs) for screening and treatment options, and identify issues with its measurement and evaluation. A sub-analysis of trials included in the 2014 Cochrane Review of Decision Aids. Eligible trials measured value congruence with chosen option. Two reviewers independently screened 115 trials. Among 18 included trials, 8 (44%) measured value congruence using the Multidimensional Measure of Informed Choice (MMIC), 7 (39%) used heterogeneous methods, and 3 (17%) used unclear methods. Pooled results of trials that used heterogeneous measures were statistically non-significant (n=3). Results from trials that used the MMIC suggest patients are 48% more likely to make value congruent decisions when exposed to a PtDA for a screening decision (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.16, n=8). Patients struggle to make value congruent decisions, but PtDAs may help. While the absolute improvement is relatively small it may be underestimated due to sample size issues, definitions, and heterogeneity of measures. Current approaches are inadequate to support patients making decisions that are consistent with their values. There is some evidence that PtDAs support patients with achieving values congruent decisions for screening choices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting changes in dynamic and complex acoustic environments

PubMed Central

Boubenec, Yves; Lawlor, Jennifer; Górska, Urszula; Shamma, Shihab; Englitz, Bernhard

2017-01-01

Natural sounds such as wind or rain, are characterized by the statistical occurrence of their constituents. Despite their complexity, listeners readily detect changes in these contexts. We here address the neural basis of statistical decision-making using a combination of psychophysics, EEG and modelling. In a texture-based, change-detection paradigm, human performance and reaction times improved with longer pre-change exposure, consistent with improved estimation of baseline statistics. Change-locked and decision-related EEG responses were found in a centro-parietal scalp location, whose slope depended on change size, consistent with sensory evidence accumulation. The potential's amplitude scaled with the duration of pre-change exposure, suggesting a time-dependent decision threshold. Auditory cortex-related potentials showed no response to the change. A dual timescale, statistical estimation model accounted for subjects' performance. Furthermore, a decision-augmented auditory cortex model accounted for performance and reaction times, suggesting that the primary cortical representation requires little post-processing to enable change-detection in complex acoustic environments. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24910.001 PMID:28262095

Quantum-Like Bayesian Networks for Modeling Decision Making

PubMed Central

Moreira, Catarina; Wichert, Andreas

2016-01-01

In this work, we explore an alternative quantum structure to perform quantum probabilistic inferences to accommodate the paradoxical findings of the Sure Thing Principle. We propose a Quantum-Like Bayesian Network, which consists in replacing classical probabilities by quantum probability amplitudes. However, since this approach suffers from the problem of exponential growth of quantum parameters, we also propose a similarity heuristic that automatically fits quantum parameters through vector similarities. This makes the proposed model general and predictive in contrast to the current state of the art models, which cannot be generalized for more complex decision scenarios and that only provide an explanatory nature for the observed paradoxes. In the end, the model that we propose consists in a nonparametric method for estimating inference effects from a statistical point of view. It is a statistical model that is simpler than the previous quantum dynamic and quantum-like models proposed in the literature. We tested the proposed network with several empirical data from the literature, mainly from the Prisoner's Dilemma game and the Two Stage Gambling game. The results obtained show that the proposed quantum Bayesian Network is a general method that can accommodate violations of the laws of classical probability theory and make accurate predictions regarding human decision-making in these scenarios. PMID:26858669

TREATMENT SWITCHING: STATISTICAL AND DECISION-MAKING CHALLENGES AND APPROACHES.

PubMed

Latimer, Nicholas R; Henshall, Chris; Siebert, Uwe; Bell, Helen

2016-01-01

Treatment switching refers to the situation in a randomized controlled trial where patients switch from their randomly assigned treatment onto an alternative. Often, switching is from the control group onto the experimental treatment. In this instance, a standard intention-to-treat analysis does not identify the true comparative effectiveness of the treatments under investigation. We aim to describe statistical methods for adjusting for treatment switching in a comprehensible way for nonstatisticians, and to summarize views on these methods expressed by stakeholders at the 2014 Adelaide International Workshop on Treatment Switching in Clinical Trials. We describe three statistical methods used to adjust for treatment switching: marginal structural models, two-stage adjustment, and rank preserving structural failure time models. We draw upon discussion heard at the Adelaide International Workshop to explore the views of stakeholders on the acceptability of these methods. Stakeholders noted that adjustment methods are based on assumptions, the validity of which may often be questionable. There was disagreement on the acceptability of adjustment methods, but consensus that when these are used, they should be justified rigorously. The utility of adjustment methods depends upon the decision being made and the processes used by the decision-maker. Treatment switching makes estimating the true comparative effect of a new treatment challenging. However, many decision-makers have reservations with adjustment methods. These, and how they affect the utility of adjustment methods, require further exploration. Further technical work is required to develop adjustment methods to meet real world needs, to enhance their acceptability to decision-makers.

Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites) that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM) to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Methods Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. Results After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models’ quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of ‘transparency’, ‘participation’, ‘scientific rigour’ and ‘reasonableness’. Conclusions The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to coverage decision-making. It allowed testing of hypotheses in situations where there are links between several non-observable constructs. PLS-PM was compatible in accounting for the complexity of coverage decisions to obtain a more realistic perspective for empirical analysis. The model specification can be used for hypothesis testing by using larger sample sizes and for data in the full domain of health technologies. PMID:22856325

Decision-making in healthcare: a practical application of partial least square path modelling to coverage of newborn screening programmes.

PubMed

Fischer, Katharina E

2012-08-02

Decision-making in healthcare is complex. Research on coverage decision-making has focused on comparative studies for several countries, statistical analyses for single decision-makers, the decision outcome and appraisal criteria. Accounting for decision processes extends the complexity, as they are multidimensional and process elements need to be regarded as latent constructs (composites) that are not observed directly. The objective of this study was to present a practical application of partial least square path modelling (PLS-PM) to evaluate how it offers a method for empirical analysis of decision-making in healthcare. Empirical approaches that applied PLS-PM to decision-making in healthcare were identified through a systematic literature search. PLS-PM was used as an estimation technique for a structural equation model that specified hypotheses between the components of decision processes and the reasonableness of decision-making in terms of medical, economic and other ethical criteria. The model was estimated for a sample of 55 coverage decisions on the extension of newborn screening programmes in Europe. Results were evaluated by standard reliability and validity measures for PLS-PM. After modification by dropping two indicators that showed poor measures in the measurement models' quality assessment and were not meaningful for newborn screening, the structural equation model estimation produced plausible results. The presence of three influences was supported: the links between both stakeholder participation or transparency and the reasonableness of decision-making; and the effect of transparency on the degree of scientific rigour of assessment. Reliable and valid measurement models were obtained to describe the composites of 'transparency', 'participation', 'scientific rigour' and 'reasonableness'. The structural equation model was among the first applications of PLS-PM to coverage decision-making. It allowed testing of hypotheses in situations where there are links between several non-observable constructs. PLS-PM was compatible in accounting for the complexity of coverage decisions to obtain a more realistic perspective for empirical analysis. The model specification can be used for hypothesis testing by using larger sample sizes and for data in the full domain of health technologies.

What Do the Stats Tell Us? Engaging Elementary Children in Probabilistic Reasoning Based on Data Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hourigan, Mairéad; Leavy, Aisling

2016-01-01

As part of Japanese Lesson study research focusing on "comparing and describing likelihoods", fifth grade elementary students used real-world data in decision-making. Sporting statistics facilitated opportunities for informal inference, where data were used to make and justify predictions.

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Behavioural social choice: a status report.

PubMed

Regenwetter, Michel; Grofman, Bernard; Popova, Anna; Messner, William; Davis-Stober, Clintin P; Cavagnaro, Daniel R

2009-03-27

Behavioural social choice has been proposed as a social choice parallel to seminal developments in other decision sciences, such as behavioural decision theory, behavioural economics, behavioural finance and behavioural game theory. Behavioural paradigms compare how rational actors should make certain types of decisions with how real decision makers behave empirically. We highlight that important theoretical predictions in social choice theory change dramatically under even minute violations of standard assumptions. Empirical data violate those critical assumptions. We argue that the nature of preference distributions in electorates is ultimately an empirical question, which social choice theory has often neglected. We also emphasize important insights for research on decision making by individuals. When researchers aggregate individual choice behaviour in laboratory experiments to report summary statistics, they are implicitly applying social choice rules. Thus, they should be aware of the potential for aggregation paradoxes. We hypothesize that such problems may substantially mar the conclusions of a number of (sometimes seminal) papers in behavioural decision research.

Election Turnout Statistics in Many Countries: Similarities, Differences, and a Diffusive Field Model for Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Borghesi, Christian; Raynal, Jean-Claude; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2012-01-01

We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular that the spatial correlation of turnout rates decay logarithmically with distance in all cases. This result is quantitatively reproduced by a decision model that assumes that each voter makes his mind as a result of three influence terms: one totally idiosyncratic component, one city-specific term with short-ranged fluctuations in space, and one long-ranged correlated field which propagates diffusively in space. A detailed analysis reveals several interesting features: for example, different countries have different degrees of local heterogeneities and seem to be characterized by a different propensity for individuals to conform to the cultural norm. We furthermore find clear signs of herding (i.e., strongly correlated decisions at the individual level) in some countries, but not in others. PMID:22615762

The decision-making capacity of elderly hospitalized patients: validation of a test on their choice of return home.

PubMed

Romdhani, Mouna; Abbas, Rachid; Peyneau, Cécile; Koskas, Pierre; Houenou Quenum, Nadège; Galleron, Sandrine; Drunat, Olivier

2018-03-01

Elderly hospitalized patients have uncertain or questionable capacity to make decisions about their care. Determining whether an elderly patient possesses decision-making capacity to return at home is a major concern for geriatricians in everyday practice. To construct and internally validate a new tool, the dream of home test (DROM-test), as support for decision making hospitalization discharge destination for the elderly in the acute or sub-acute care setting. The DROM-test consists of 10 questions and 4 vignettes based upon the 4 relevant criteria for decision-making: capacity to understand information, to appreciate and reason about medical risks and to communicate a choice. A prospective observational study was conducted during 6 months in 2 geriatric care units in Bretonneau Hospital (Assistance publique, Hôpitaux de Paris). We compared the patient decision of DROM-test regarding discharge recommendations with those of an Expert committee and of the team in charge of the patient. 102 were included: mean age 83.1 + 6.7 [70; 97], 66.67% females. Principal components analysis revealed four dimensions: choice, understanding, reasoning and understanding. The area under the ROC curve was 0.64 for the choice dimension, 0.59 for the understanding, 0.53 for the reasoning and 0.52 for the apprehension. Only the choice dimension was statistically associated with the decision of the committee of experts (p=0.017). Even though Drom-test has limitations, it provides an objective way to ascertain decision-making capacity for hospitalised elderly patients.

Analysis And Assistant Planning System Ofregional Agricultural Economic Inform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Jie; Zhang, Junfeng

For the common problems existed in regional development and planning, we try to design a decision support system for assisting regional agricultural development and alignment as a decision-making tool for local government and decision maker. The analysis methods of forecast, comparative advantage, liner programming and statistical analysis are adopted. According to comparative advantage theory, the regional advantage can be determined by calculating and comparing yield advantage index (YAI), Scale advantage index (SAI), Complicated advantage index (CAI). Combining with GIS, agricultural data are presented as a form of graph such as area, bar and pie to uncover the principle and trend for decision-making which can't be found in data table. This system provides assistant decisions for agricultural structure adjustment, agro-forestry development and planning, and can be integrated to information technologies such as RS, AI and so on.

Bayesian inference and decision theory - A framework for decision making in natural resource management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, R.M.; Johnson, F.A.

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference and decision theory may be used in the solution of relatively complex problems of natural resource management, owing to recent advances in statistical theory and computing. In particular, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms provide a computational framework for fitting models of adequate complexity and for evaluating the expected consequences of alternative management actions. We illustrate these features using an example based on management of waterfowl habitat.

Statistical Significance and Effect Size: Two Sides of a Coin.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fan, Xitao

This paper suggests that statistical significance testing and effect size are two sides of the same coin; they complement each other, but do not substitute for one another. Good research practice requires that both should be taken into consideration to make sound quantitative decisions. A Monte Carlo simulation experiment was conducted, and a…

Return to Our Roots: Raising Radishes To Teach Experimental Design.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stallings, William M.

To provide practice in making design decisions, collecting and analyzing data, and writing and documenting results, a professor of statistics has his graduate students in statistics and research methodology classes design and perform an experiment on the effects of fertilizers on the growth of radishes. This project has been required of students…

[Artificial neural networks for decision making in urologic oncology].

PubMed

Remzi, M; Djavan, B

2007-06-01

This chapter presents a detailed introduction regarding Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and their contribution to modern Urologic Oncology. It includes a description of ANNs methodology and points out the differences between Artifical Intelligence and traditional statistic models in terms of usefulness for patients and clinicians, and its advantages over current statistical analysis.

Counting on COUNTER: The Current State of E-Resource Usage Data in Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welker, Josh

2012-01-01

Any librarian who has managed electronic resources has experienced the--for want of words--"joy" of gathering and analyzing usage statistics. Such statistics are important for evaluating the effectiveness of resources and for making important budgeting decisions. Unfortunately, the data are usually tedious to collect, inconsistently organized, of…

Application of an Online Reference for Reviewing Basic Statistical Principles of Operating Room Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dexter, Franklin; Masursky, Danielle; Wachtel, Ruth E.; Nussmeier, Nancy A.

2010-01-01

Operating room (OR) management differs from clinical anesthesia in that statistical literacy is needed daily to make good decisions. Two of the authors teach a course in operations research for surgical services to anesthesiologists, anesthesia residents, OR nursing directors, hospital administration students, and analysts to provide them with the…

Statistical Reasoning over Lunch

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Selmer, Sarah J.; Bolyard, Johnna J.; Rye, James A.

2011-01-01

Students in the 21st century are exposed daily to a staggering amount of numerically infused media. In this era of abundant numeric data, students must be able to engage in sound statistical reasoning when making life decisions after exposure to varied information. The context of nutrition can be used to engage upper elementary and middle school…

An On-Line Virtual Environment for Teaching Statistical Sampling and Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marsh, Michael T.

2009-01-01

Regardless of the related discipline, students in statistics courses invariably have difficulty understanding the connection between the numerical values calculated for end-of-the-chapter exercises and their usefulness in decision making. This disconnect is, in part, due to the lack of time and opportunity to actually design the experiments and…

A Statistical Analysis of Data Used in Critical Decision Making by Secondary School Personnel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dunn, Charleta J.; Kowitz, Gerald T.

Guidance decisions depend on the validity of standardized tests and teacher judgment records as measures of student achievement. To test this validity, a sample of 400 high school juniors, randomly selected from two large Gulf Coas t area schools, were administered the Iowa Tests of Educational Development. The nine subtest scores and each…

On Using Simulations to Inform Decision Making during Instrument Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Grant B.; Moore, Courtney A.; Floyd, Harlee S.

2018-01-01

Although content validity--how well each item of an instrument represents the construct being measured--is foundational in the development of an instrument, statistical validity is also important to the decisions that are made based on the instrument. The primary purpose of this study is to demonstrate how simulation studies can be used to assist…

Estimating the expected value of partial perfect information in health economic evaluations using integrated nested Laplace approximation.

PubMed

Heath, Anna; Manolopoulou, Ioanna; Baio, Gianluca

2016-10-15

The Expected Value of Perfect Partial Information (EVPPI) is a decision-theoretic measure of the 'cost' of parametric uncertainty in decision making used principally in health economic decision making. Despite this decision-theoretic grounding, the uptake of EVPPI calculations in practice has been slow. This is in part due to the prohibitive computational time required to estimate the EVPPI via Monte Carlo simulations. However, recent developments have demonstrated that the EVPPI can be estimated by non-parametric regression methods, which have significantly decreased the computation time required to approximate the EVPPI. Under certain circumstances, high-dimensional Gaussian Process (GP) regression is suggested, but this can still be prohibitively expensive. Applying fast computation methods developed in spatial statistics using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) and projecting from a high-dimensional into a low-dimensional input space allows us to decrease the computation time for fitting these high-dimensional GP, often substantially. We demonstrate that the EVPPI calculated using our method for GP regression is in line with the standard GP regression method and that despite the apparent methodological complexity of this new method, R functions are available in the package BCEA to implement it simply and efficiently. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Uncertainty Estimation Cheat Sheet for Probabilistic Risk Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.

2017-01-01

"Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This paper will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

Lognormal Uncertainty Estimation for Failure Rates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Britton, Paul T.; Al Hassan, Mohammad; Ring, Robert W.

2017-01-01

"Uncertainty analysis itself is uncertain, therefore, you cannot evaluate it exactly," Source Uncertain. Quantitative results for aerospace engineering problems are influenced by many sources of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to make a technical contribution to decision-making through the quantification of uncertainties in the relevant variables as well as through the propagation of these uncertainties up to the result. Uncertainty can be thought of as a measure of the 'goodness' of a result and is typically represented as statistical dispersion. This presentation will explain common measures of centrality and dispersion; and-with examples-will provide guidelines for how they may be estimated to ensure effective technical contributions to decision-making.

Discharge destination following lower limb fracture: development of a prediction model to assist with decision making.

PubMed

Kimmel, Lara A; Holland, Anne E; Edwards, Elton R; Cameron, Peter A; De Steiger, Richard; Page, Richard S; Gabbe, Belinda

2012-06-01

Accurate prediction of the likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following lower limb fracture made on admission to hospital may assist patient discharge planning and decrease the burden on the hospital system caused by delays in decision making. To develop a prognostic model for discharge to inpatient rehabilitation. Isolated lower extremity fracture cases (excluding fractured neck of femur), captured by the Victorian Orthopaedic Trauma Outcomes Registry (VOTOR), were extracted for analysis. A training data set was created for model development and validation data set for evaluation. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed based on patient and injury characteristics. Models were assessed using measures of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic). A total of 1429 patients met the inclusion criteria and were randomly split into training and test data sets. Increasing age, more proximal fracture type, compensation or private fund source for the admission, metropolitan location of residence, not working prior to injury and having a self-reported pre-injury disability were included in the final prediction model. The C-statistic for the model was 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.88, 0.95) with an H-L statistic of χ(2)=11.62, p=0.17. For the test data set, the C-statistic was 0.86 (95% CI 0.83, 0.90) with an H-L statistic of χ(2)=37.98, p<0.001. A model to predict discharge to inpatient rehabilitation following lower limb fracture was developed with excellent discrimination although the calibration was reduced in the test data set. This model requires prospective testing but could form an integral part of decision making in regards to discharge disposition to facilitate timely and accurate referral to rehabilitation and optimise resource allocation. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

Preferred prenatal counselling at the limits of viability: a survey among Dutch perinatal professionals.

PubMed

Geurtzen, R; Van Heijst, Arno; Hermens, Rosella; Scheepers, Hubertina; Woiski, Mallory; Draaisma, Jos; Hogeveen, Marije

2018-01-03

Since 2010, intensive care can be offered in the Netherlands at 24 +0  weeks gestation (with parental consent) but the Dutch guideline lacks recommendations on organization, content and preferred decision-making of the counselling. Our aim is to explore preferred prenatal counselling at the limits of viability by Dutch perinatal professionals and compare this to current care. Online nationwide survey as part of the PreCo study (2013) amongst obstetricians and neonatologists in all Dutch level III perinatal care centers (n = 205).The survey regarded prenatal counselling at the limits of viability and focused on the domains of organization, content and decision-making in both current and preferred practice. One hundred twenty-two surveys were returned out of 205 eligible professionals (response rate 60%). Organization-wise: more than 80% of all professionals preferred (but currently missed) having protocols for several aspects of counselling, joint counselling by both neonatologist and obstetrician, and the use of supportive materials. Most professionals preferred using national or local data (70%) on outcome statistics for the counselling content, in contrast to the international statistics currently used (74%). Current decisions on initiation care were mostly made together (in 99% parents and doctor). This shared decision model was preferred by 95% of the professionals. Dutch perinatal professionals would prefer more protocolized counselling, joint counselling, supportive material and local outcome statistics. Further studies on both barriers to perform adequate counselling, as well as on Dutch outcome statistics and parents' opinions are needed in order to develop a national framework. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02782650 , retrospectively registered May 2016.

Tire Changes, Fresh Air, and Yellow Flags: Challenges in Predictive Analytics for Professional Racing.

PubMed

Tulabandhula, Theja; Rudin, Cynthia

2014-06-01

Our goal is to design a prediction and decision system for real-time use during a professional car race. In designing a knowledge discovery process for racing, we faced several challenges that were overcome only when domain knowledge of racing was carefully infused within statistical modeling techniques. In this article, we describe how we leveraged expert knowledge of the domain to produce a real-time decision system for tire changes within a race. Our forecasts have the potential to impact how racing teams can optimize strategy by making tire-change decisions to benefit their rank position. Our work significantly expands previous research on sports analytics, as it is the only work on analytical methods for within-race prediction and decision making for professional car racing.

Copyright Policy and Practice in Electronic Reserves among ARL Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, David R.; Cross, William M.; Edwards, Phillip M.

2013-01-01

This paper presents the results of a survey of 110 ARL institutions regarding their copyright policies for providing electronic reserves. It compiles descriptive statistics on library practice as well as coding responses to reveal trends and shared practices. Finally, it presents conclusions about policy making, decision making and risk aversion…

Making the Case for Evidence-Based Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Joanne; McClure, Janelle; Spinks, Andy

2010-01-01

Evidence-based practice is the collection, interpretation, and use of data, such as collection statistics or assessment results, that measure the effectiveness of a library media program. In this article, the authors will present various forms of evidence and show that any library media specialist can use data to make informed decisions that…

Interventions to support shared decision-making for women with heavy menstrual bleeding: A systematic review.

PubMed

Zandstra, D; Busser, J A S; Aarts, J W M; Nieboer, T E

2017-04-01

This review studies women's preferences for shared decision-making about heavy menstrual bleeding treatment and evaluates interventions that support shared decision-making and their effectiveness. PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, Medline and ClinicalTrials.gov were searched. Three research questions were predefined: 1) What is the range of perspectives gathered in studies that examine women facing a decision related to heavy menstrual bleeding management?; 2) What types of interventions have been developed to support shared decision-making for women experiencing heavy menstrual bleeding?; and 3) In what way might women benefit from interventions that support shared decision-making? All original studies were included if the study population consisted of women experiencing heavy menstrual bleeding. We used the TIDieR (Template for Intervention: Description and Replication) checklist to assess the quality of description and the reproducibility of interventions. Interventions were categorized using Grande et al. guidelines and collated and summarized outcomes measures into three categories: 1) patient-reported outcomes; 2) observer-reported outcomes; and 3) doctor-reported outcomes. Fifteen studies were included. Overall, patients preferred to decide together with their doctor (74%). Women's previsit preference was the strongest predictor for treatment choice in two studies. Information packages did not have a statistically significant effect on treatment choice or satisfaction. However, adding a structured interview or decision aid to increase patient involvement did show a positive effect on treatment choice and results, patient satisfaction and shared decision-making related outcomes. In conclusion shared decision-making is becoming more important in the care of women with heavy menstrual bleeding. Structured interviews or well-designed (computerized) tools such as decision aids seem to facilitate this process, but there is room for improvement. A shared treatment choice is only possible after careful provision of information, elicitation of patients' preferences and integrating those preferences. Interventions should be designed accordingly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Women's decision-making and uptake of services to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zambia.

PubMed

Ford, Catherine; Chibwesha, Carla J; Winston, Jennifer; Jacobs, Choolwe; Lubeya, Mwansa Ketty; Musonda, Patrick; Stringer, Jeffrey S A; Chi, Benjamin H

2018-04-01

Women's empowerment is associated with engagement in some areas of healthcare, but its role in prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) services has not been previously considered. In this secondary analysis, we investigated the association of women's decision-making and uptake of health services for PMTCT. Using data from population-based household surveys, we included women who reported delivery in the 2-year period prior to the survey and were HIV-infected. We measured a woman's self-reported role in decision-making in her own healthcare, making of large purchases, schooling of children, and healthcare for children. For each domain, respondents were categorized as having an "active" or "no active" role. We investigated associations between decision-making and specific steps along the PMTCT cascade: uptake of maternal antiretroviral drugs, uptake of infant HIV prophylaxis, and infant HIV testing. We calculated unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios via logistic regression. From March to December 2011, 344 HIV-infected mothers were surveyed and 276 completed the relevant survey questions. Of these, 190 (69%) took antiretroviral drugs during pregnancy; 175 (64%) of their HIV-exposed infants received antiretroviral prophylaxis; and 160 (58%) had their infant tested for HIV. There was no association between decision-making and maternal or infant antiretroviral drug use. We observed a significant association between decision-making and infant HIV testing in univariate analyses (OR 1.56-1.85; p < 0.05); however, odds ratios for the decision-making indicators were no longer statistically significant predictors of infant HIV testing in multivariate analyses. In conclusion, women who reported an active role in decision-making trended toward a higher likelihood of uptake of infant testing in the PMTCT cascade. Larger studies are needed to evaluate the impact of empowerment initiatives on the PMTCT service utilization overall and infant testing in particular.

History matching through dynamic decision-making

PubMed Central

Maschio, Célio; Santos, Antonio Alberto; Schiozer, Denis; Rocha, Anderson

2017-01-01

History matching is the process of modifying the uncertain attributes of a reservoir model to reproduce the real reservoir performance. It is a classical reservoir engineering problem and plays an important role in reservoir management since the resulting models are used to support decisions in other tasks such as economic analysis and production strategy. This work introduces a dynamic decision-making optimization framework for history matching problems in which new models are generated based on, and guided by, the dynamic analysis of the data of available solutions. The optimization framework follows a ‘learning-from-data’ approach, and includes two optimizer components that use machine learning techniques, such as unsupervised learning and statistical analysis, to uncover patterns of input attributes that lead to good output responses. These patterns are used to support the decision-making process while generating new, and better, history matched solutions. The proposed framework is applied to a benchmark model (UNISIM-I-H) based on the Namorado field in Brazil. Results show the potential the dynamic decision-making optimization framework has for improving the quality of history matching solutions using a substantial smaller number of simulations when compared with a previous work on the same benchmark. PMID:28582413

A normative inference approach for optimal sample sizes in decisions from experience

PubMed Central

Ostwald, Dirk; Starke, Ludger; Hertwig, Ralph

2015-01-01

“Decisions from experience” (DFE) refers to a body of work that emerged in research on behavioral decision making over the last decade. One of the major experimental paradigms employed to study experience-based choice is the “sampling paradigm,” which serves as a model of decision making under limited knowledge about the statistical structure of the world. In this paradigm respondents are presented with two payoff distributions, which, in contrast to standard approaches in behavioral economics, are specified not in terms of explicit outcome-probability information, but by the opportunity to sample outcomes from each distribution without economic consequences. Participants are encouraged to explore the distributions until they feel confident enough to decide from which they would prefer to draw from in a final trial involving real monetary payoffs. One commonly employed measure to characterize the behavior of participants in the sampling paradigm is the sample size, that is, the number of outcome draws which participants choose to obtain from each distribution prior to terminating sampling. A natural question that arises in this context concerns the “optimal” sample size, which could be used as a normative benchmark to evaluate human sampling behavior in DFE. In this theoretical study, we relate the DFE sampling paradigm to the classical statistical decision theoretic literature and, under a probabilistic inference assumption, evaluate optimal sample sizes for DFE. In our treatment we go beyond analytically established results by showing how the classical statistical decision theoretic framework can be used to derive optimal sample sizes under arbitrary, but numerically evaluable, constraints. Finally, we critically evaluate the value of deriving optimal sample sizes under this framework as testable predictions for the experimental study of sampling behavior in DFE. PMID:26441720

MDCT quantification is the dominant parameter in decision–making regarding chest tube drainage for stable patients with traumatic pneumothorax

PubMed Central

Cai, Wenli; Lee, June-Goo; Fikry, Karim; Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Novelline, Robert; de Moya, Marc

2013-01-01

It is commonly believed that the size of a pneumothorax is an important determinant of treatment decision, in particular regarding whether chest tube drainage (CTD) is required. However, the volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces has not routinely been performed in clinics. In this paper, we introduced an automated computer-aided volumetry (CAV) scheme for quantification of volume of pneumothoraces in chest multi-detect CT (MDCT) images. Moreover, we investigated the impact of accurate volume of pneumothoraces in the improvement of the performance in decision-making regarding CTD in the management of traumatic pneumothoraces. For this purpose, an occurrence frequency map was calculated for quantitative analysis of the importance of each clinical parameter in the decision-making regarding CTD by a computer simulation of decision-making using a genetic algorithm (GA) and a support vector machine (SVM). A total of 14 clinical parameters, including volume of pneumothorax calculated by our CAV scheme, was collected as parameters available for decision-making. The results showed that volume was the dominant parameter in decision-making regarding CTD, with an occurrence frequency value of 1.00. The results also indicated that the inclusion of volume provided the best performance that was statistically significant compared to the other tests in which volume was excluded from the clinical parameters. This study provides the scientific evidence for the application of CAV scheme in MDCT volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces in the management of clinically stable chest trauma patients with traumatic pneumothorax. PMID:22560899

The Role of Psychological Adjustment in the Decision-making Process for Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy.

PubMed

Sereno, Sara; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João

2013-07-01

This study's objective was to evaluate the role of psychological adjustment in the decision-making process to have an abortion and explore individual variables that might influence this decision. In this cross-sectional study, we sequentially enrolled 150 women who made the decision to voluntarily terminate a pregnancy in Maternity Dr. Alfredo da Costa, in Lisbon, Portugal, between September 2008 and June 2009. The instruments were the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS), Satisfaction with Social Support Scale (SSSS), Emotional Assessment Scale (EAS), Decision Conflict Scale (DCS), and Beliefs and Values Questionnaire (BVQ). We analyzed the data using Student's T-tests, MANOVA, ANOVA, Tukey's post-hoc tests and CATPCA. Statistically significant effects were accepted for p<0.05. The participants found the decision difficult and emotionally demanding, although they also identified it as a low conflict decision. The prevailing emotions were sadness, fear and stress; but despite these feelings, the participants remained psychologically adjusted in the moment they decided to have an abortion. The resolution to terminate the pregnancy was essentially shared with supportive people and it was mostly motivated by socio-economic issues. The different beliefs and values found in this sample, and their possible associations are discussed. Despite high levels of stress, the women were psychologically adjusted at the time of making the decision to terminate the pregnancy. However, opposing what has been previously reported, the women presented high levels of sadness and fear, showing that this decision was hard to make, triggering disruptive emotions.

MDCT quantification is the dominant parameter in decision-making regarding chest tube drainage for stable patients with traumatic pneumothorax.

PubMed

Cai, Wenli; Lee, June-Goo; Fikry, Karim; Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Novelline, Robert; de Moya, Marc

2012-07-01

It is commonly believed that the size of a pneumothorax is an important determinant of treatment decision, in particular regarding whether chest tube drainage (CTD) is required. However, the volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces has not routinely been performed in clinics. In this paper, we introduced an automated computer-aided volumetry (CAV) scheme for quantification of volume of pneumothoraces in chest multi-detect CT (MDCT) images. Moreover, we investigated the impact of accurate volume of pneumothoraces in the improvement of the performance in decision-making regarding CTD in the management of traumatic pneumothoraces. For this purpose, an occurrence frequency map was calculated for quantitative analysis of the importance of each clinical parameter in the decision-making regarding CTD by a computer simulation of decision-making using a genetic algorithm (GA) and a support vector machine (SVM). A total of 14 clinical parameters, including volume of pneumothorax calculated by our CAV scheme, was collected as parameters available for decision-making. The results showed that volume was the dominant parameter in decision-making regarding CTD, with an occurrence frequency value of 1.00. The results also indicated that the inclusion of volume provided the best performance that was statistically significant compared to the other tests in which volume was excluded from the clinical parameters. This study provides the scientific evidence for the application of CAV scheme in MDCT volumetric quantification of pneumothoraces in the management of clinically stable chest trauma patients with traumatic pneumothorax. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Finding P-Values for F Tests of Hypothesis on a Spreadsheet.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rochowicz, John A., Jr.

The calculation of the F statistic for a one-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the construction of an ANOVA tables are easily implemented on a spreadsheet. This paper describes how to compute the p-value (observed significance level) for a particular F statistic on a spreadsheet. Decision making on a spreadsheet and applications to the…

Active Learning and Threshold Concepts in Multiple Testing That Can Further Develop Student Critical Statistical Thinking

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, Desley

2015-01-01

Two practical activities are described, which aim to support critical thinking about statistics as they concern multiple outcomes testing. Formulae are presented in Microsoft Excel spreadsheets, which are used to calculate the inflation of error associated with the quantity of tests performed. This is followed by a decision-making exercise, where…

Modelling Complexity: Making Sense of Leadership Issues in 14-19 Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Briggs, Ann R. J.

2008-01-01

Modelling of statistical data is a well established analytical strategy. Statistical data can be modelled to represent, and thereby predict, the forces acting upon a structure or system. For the rapidly changing systems in the world of education, modelling enables the researcher to understand, to predict and to enable decisions to be based upon…

The Warning System in Disaster Situations: A Selective Analysis.

DTIC Science & Technology

DISASTERS, *WARNING SYSTEMS), CIVIL DEFENSE, SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, REACTION(PSYCHOLOGY), FACTOR ANALYSIS, CLASSIFICATION, STATISTICAL DATA, TIME ... MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL, DAMAGE, CONTROL SYSTEMS, THREAT EVALUATION, DECISION MAKING, DATA PROCESSING, COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS, NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS

Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.

2017-12-01

Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safavian, S. Rasoul; Landgrebe, David

1990-01-01

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data.

Combined monitoring, decision and control model for the human operator in a command and control desk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muralidharan, R.; Baron, S.

1978-01-01

A report is given on the ongoing efforts to mode the human operator in the context of the task during the enroute/return phases in the ground based control of multiple flights of remotely piloted vehicles (RPV). The approach employed here uses models that have their analytical bases in control theory and in statistical estimation and decision theory. In particular, it draws heavily on the modes and the concepts of the optimal control model (OCM) of the human operator. The OCM is being extended into a combined monitoring, decision, and control model (DEMON) of the human operator by infusing decision theoretic notions that make it suitable for application to problems in which human control actions are infrequent and in which monitoring and decision-making are the operator's main activities. Some results obtained with a specialized version of DEMON for the RPV control problem are included.

Family involvement in decision making for people with dementia in residential aged care: a systematic review of quantitative literature.

PubMed

Petriwskyj, Andrea; Gibson, Alexandra; Parker, Deborah; Banks, Susan; Andrews, Sharon; Robinson, Andrew

2014-06-01

Ensuring older adults' involvement in their care is accepted as good practice and is vital, particularly for people with dementia, whose care and treatment needs change considerably over the course of the illness. However, involving family members in decision making on people's behalf is still practically difficult for staff and family. The aim of this review was to identify and appraise the existing quantitative evidence about family involvement in decision making for people with dementia living in residential aged care. The present Joanna Briggs Institute (JBI) metasynthesis assessed studies that investigated involvement of family members in decision making for people with dementia in residential aged care settings. While quantitative and qualitative studies were included in the review, this paper presents the quantitative findings. A comprehensive search of 15 electronic databases was performed. The search was limited to papers published in English, from 1990 to 2013. Twenty-six studies were identified as being relevant; 10 were quantitative, with 1 mixed method study. Two independent reviewers assessed the studies for methodological validity and extracted the data using the JBI Meta Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI). The findings were synthesized and presented in narrative form. The findings related to decisions encountered and made by family surrogates, variables associated with decisions, surrogates' perceptions of, and preferences for, their roles, as well as outcomes for people with dementia and their families. The results identified patterns within, and variables associated with, surrogate decision making, all of which highlight the complexity and variation regarding family involvement. Attention needs to be paid to supporting family members in decision making in collaboration with staff.

Decision making measured by the Iowa Gambling Task in alcohol use disorder and gambling disorder: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kovács, Ildikó; Richman, Mara J; Janka, Zoltán; Maraz, Aniko; Andó, Bálint

2017-12-01

Gambling disorder (GD) and alcohol use disorder (AD) have similar features, such as elevated impulsivity and decision-making deficits, which are directly linked to relapse and poor therapeutic outcomes. Our aim was to assess decision-making characteristics in GD and AD patients compared to healthy controls (HC) based on one of the most frequently used measures of decision-making: the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). In our systematic literature search of three databases, we identified 1198 empirical articles that mentioned decision-making deficits with the use of the IGT in patients diagnosed with either AD or GD. Possible effects were calculated using meta-analysis. In the end, 17 studies (including 1360 participants) were suitable for inclusion in the meta-analysis reporting data for 23 group contrasts. The random effects estimate indicated impaired IGT performance in both AD patients (N=500; d=-0.581, CI:-89.5<δ<-26.6%) and an even greater deficit in GD patients (N=292; d=-1.034, CI:-156.1<δ<50.7%) compared to HCs. Sampling variances were calculated for both AD (v 1 =0.0056) and GD groups (v 2 =0.0061), from which the z-score was calculated (z=-21.0785; p<0.05), which indicates a statistically significant difference between AD and GD groups. No significant moderating effects of age, gender or education were found. There is enough evidence to support that decision-making deficit associated with addictive disorders, and that the deficit is more expressed in gambling disorder than in alcohol use disorder. Impaired decision-making plays an important part in poor therapeutic outcomes, thus provides a promising opportunity for cognitive intervention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Evaluation of the American College of Surgeons NSQIP Pediatric Surgical Risk Calculator.

PubMed

Kraemer, Kari; Cohen, Mark E; Liu, Yaoming; Barnhart, Douglas C; Rangel, Shawn J; Saito, Jacqueline M; Bilimoria, Karl Y; Ko, Clifford Y; Hall, Bruce L

2016-11-01

There is an increased desire among patients and families to be involved in the surgical decision-making process. A surgeon's ability to provide patients and families with patient-specific estimates of postoperative complications is critical for shared decision making and informed consent. Surgeons can also use patient-specific risk estimates to decide whether or not to operate and what options to offer patients. Our objective was to develop and evaluate a publicly available risk estimation tool that would cover many common pediatric surgical procedures across all specialties. American College of Surgeons NSQIP Pediatric standardized data from 67 hospitals were used to develop a risk estimation tool. Surgeons enter 18 preoperative variables (demographics, comorbidities, procedure) that are used in a logistic regression model to predict 9 postoperative outcomes. A surgeon adjustment score is also incorporated to adjust for any additional risk not accounted for in the 18 risk factors. A pediatric surgical risk calculator was developed based on 181,353 cases covering 382 CPT codes across all specialties. It had excellent discrimination for mortality (c-statistic = 0.98), morbidity (c-statistic = 0.81), and 7 additional complications (c-statistic > 0.77). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic and graphic representations also showed excellent calibration. The ACS NSQIP Pediatric Surgical Risk Calculator was developed using standardized and audited multi-institutional data from the ACS NSQIP Pediatric, and it provides empirically derived, patient-specific postoperative risks. It can be used as a tool in the shared decision-making process by providing clinicians, families, and patients with useful information for many of the most common operations performed on pediatric patients in the US. Copyright © 2016 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Exploratory Data Analysis System for Support in Medical Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Copeland, J. A.; Hamel, B.; Bourne, J. R.

1979-01-01

An experimental system was developed to allow retrieval and analysis of data collected during a study of neurobehavioral correlates of renal disease. After retrieving data organized in a relational data base, simple bivariate statistics of parametric and nonparametric nature could be conducted. An “exploratory” mode in which the system provided guidance in selection of appropriate statistical analyses was also available to the user. The system traversed a decision tree using the inherent qualities of the data (e.g., the identity and number of patients, tests, and time epochs) to search for the appropriate analyses to employ.

The data life cycle applied to our own data.

PubMed

Goben, Abigail; Raszewski, Rebecca

2015-01-01

Increased demand for data-driven decision making is driving the need for librarians to be facile with the data life cycle. This case study follows the migration of reference desk statistics from handwritten to digital format. This shift presented two opportunities: first, the availability of a nonsensitive data set to improve the librarians' understanding of data-management and statistical analysis skills, and second, the use of analytics to directly inform staffing decisions and departmental strategic goals. By working through each step of the data life cycle, library faculty explored data gathering, storage, sharing, and analysis questions.

Informing men about prostate cancer screening: a randomized controlled trial of patient education materials.

PubMed

Ilic, Dragan; Egberts, Kristine; McKenzie, Joanne E; Risbridger, Gail; Green, Sally

2008-04-01

Patient education materials can assist patient decision making on prostate cancer screening. To explore the effectiveness of presenting health information on prostate cancer screening using video, internet, and written interventions on patient decision making, attitudes, knowledge, and screening interest. Randomized controlled trial. A total of 161 men aged over 45, who had never been screened for prostate cancer, were randomized to receive information on prostate cancer screening. Participants were assessed at baseline and 1-week postintervention for decisional conflict, screening interest, knowledge, anxiety, and decision-making preference. A total of 156 men were followed-up at 1-week postintervention. There was no statistical, or clinical, difference in mean change in decisional conflict scores between the 3 intervention groups (video vs internet -0.06 [95% CI -0.24 to 0.12]; video vs pamphlet 0.04 [95%CI -0.15 to 0.22]; internet vs pamphlet 0.10 [95%CI -0.09 to 0.28]). There was also no statistically significant difference in mean knowledge, anxiety, decision-making preference, and screening interest between the 3 intervention groups. Results from this study indicate that there are no clinically significant differences in decisional conflict when men are presented health information on prostate cancer screening via video, written materials, or the internet. Given the equivalence of the 3 methods, other factors need to be considered in deciding which method to use. Health professionals should provide patient health education materials via a method that is most convenient to the patient and their preferred learning style.

RF-CLASS: A Remote-sensing-based Interoperable Web service system for Flood Crop Loss Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di, L.; Yu, G.; Kang, L.

2014-12-01

Flood is one of the worst natural disasters in the world. Flooding often causes significant crop loss over large agricultural areas in the United States. Two USDA agencies, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Risk Management Agency (RMA), make decisions on flood statistics, crop insurance policy, and recovery management by collecting, analyzing, reporting, and utilizing flooded crop acreage and crop loss information. NASS has the mandate to report crop loss after all flood events. RMA manages crop insurance policy and uses crop loss information to guide the creation of the crop insurance policy and the aftermath compensation. Many studies have been conducted in the recent years on monitoring floods and assessing the crop loss due to floods with remote sensing and geographic information technologies. The Remote-sensing-based Flood Crop Loss Assessment Service System (RF-CLASS), being developed with NASA and USDA support, aims to significantly improve the post-flood agricultural decision-making supports in USDA by integrating and advancing the recently developed technologies. RF-CLASS will operationally provide information to support USDA decision making activities on collecting and archiving flood acreage and duration, recording annual crop loss due to flood, assessing the crop insurance rating areas, investigating crop policy compliance, and spot checking of crop loss claims. This presentation will discuss the remote sensing and GIS based methods for deriving the needed information to support the decision making, the RF-CLASS cybersystem architecture, the standards and interoperability arrangements in the system, and the current and planned capabilities of the system.

Developing a Campaign Plan to Target Centers of Gravity Within Economic Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-05-01

Conclusion 67 CHAPTER 7: CURRENT AND FUTURE CONCERNS 69 Decision Making and Planning 69 Conclusion 72 CHAPTER 8: CONCLUSION 73 APPENDIX A: STATISTICS 80...Terminology and Statistical Tests 80 Country Analysis 84 APPENDIX B 154 BIBLIOGRAPHY 157 VITAE 162 IV LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Air Campaign...This project furthers the original statistical effort and adds to this a campaign planning approach (including both systems and operational level

Genders of patients and clinicians and their effect on shared decision making: a participant-level meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wyatt, Kirk D; Branda, Megan E; Inselman, Jonathan W; Ting, Henry H; Hess, Erik P; Montori, Victor M; LeBlanc, Annie

2014-09-02

Gender differences in communication styles between clinicians and patients have been postulated to impact patient care, but the extent to which the gender dyad structure impacts outcomes in shared decision making remains unclear. Participant-level meta-analysis of 775 clinical encounters within 7 randomized trials where decision aids, shared decision making tools, were used at the point of care. Outcomes analysed include decisional conflict scale scores, satisfaction with the clinical encounter, concordance between stated decision and action taken, and degree of patient engagement by the clinician using the OPTION scale. An estimated minimal important difference was used to determine if nonsignificant results could be explained by low power. We did not find a statistically significant interaction between clinician/patient gender mix and arm for decisional conflict, satisfaction with the clinical encounter or patient engagement. A borderline significant interaction (p = 0.05) was observed for one outcome: concordance between stated decision and action taken, where encounters with female clinician/male patient showed increased concordance in the decision aid arm compared to control (8% more concordant encounters). All other gender dyads showed decreased concordance with decision aid use (6% fewer concordant encounters for same-gender, 16% fewer concordant encounters for male clinician/female patient). In this participant-level meta-analysis of 7 randomized trials, decision aids used at the point of care demonstrated comparable efficacy across gender dyads. Purported barriers to shared decision making based on gender were not detected when tested for a minimum detected difference. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00888537, NCT01077037, NCT01029288, NCT00388050, NCT00578981, NCT00949611, NCT00217061.

Inductive reasoning 2.0.

PubMed

Hayes, Brett K; Heit, Evan

2018-05-01

Inductive reasoning entails using existing knowledge to make predictions about novel cases. The first part of this review summarizes key inductive phenomena and critically evaluates theories of induction. We highlight recent theoretical advances, with a special emphasis on the structured statistical approach, the importance of sampling assumptions in Bayesian models, and connectionist modeling. A number of new research directions in this field are identified including comparisons of inductive and deductive reasoning, the identification of common core processes in induction and memory tasks and induction involving category uncertainty. The implications of induction research for areas as diverse as complex decision-making and fear generalization are discussed. This article is categorized under: Psychology > Reasoning and Decision Making Psychology > Learning. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Research of Spatial-Temporal Analysis and Decision-Making Assistant System for Disabled Person Affairs Based on Mapworld

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J. H.; Yang, J.; Sun, Y. S.

2015-06-01

This system combines the Mapworld platform and informationization of disabled person affairs, uses the basic information of disabled person as center frame. Based on the disabled person population database, the affairs management system and the statistical account system, the data were effectively integrated and the united information resource database was built. Though the data analysis and mining, the system provides powerful data support to the decision making, the affairs managing and the public serving. It finally realizes the rationalization, normalization and scientization of disabled person affairs management. It also makes significant contributions to the great-leap-forward development of the informationization of China Disabled Person's Federation.

SYNTHESIS OF SPATIAL DATA FOR DECISION-MAKING

EPA Science Inventory

EPA'S Regional Vulnerability Assessment Program (ReVA) has developed a web-based statistical tool that synthesizes available spatial data into indices of condition, vulnerability (risk, considering cumulative effects), and feasibility of management options. The Environmental Deci...

ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS INITIATIVE

EPA Science Inventory

EPA's Center of Excellence (COE) for Environmental Computational Science is intended to integrate cutting-edge science and emerging information technology (IT) solutions for input to the decision-making process. Complementing the research goals of EPA's COE, the NERL has initiat...

Decision making in acquiring medical technologies in Israeli medical centers: a preliminary study.

PubMed

Greenberg, Dan; Pliskin, Joseph S; Peterburg, Yitzhak

2003-01-01

This preliminary study had two objectives: a) charting the considerations relevant to decisions about acquisition of new medical technology at the hospital level; and b) creating a basis for the development of a research tool that will examine the function of the Israeli health system in assessment of new medical technologies. A comprehensive literature review and in-depth interviews with decision makers at different levels allowed formulation of criteria considered by decision makers when they decide to purchase and use (or disallow the use) of new medical technology. The resulting questionnaire was sent to medical center directors, along with a letter explaining the goals of the study. The questionnaire included 31 possible considerations for decision making concerning the acquisition of new medical technology by medical centers. The interviewees were asked to indicate the relevance of each consideration in the decision-making process. The most relevant criteria for the adoption of new technologies related to the need for a large capital investment, clinical efficacy of the technology as well as its influence on side effects and complication rates, and a formal approval by the Ministry of Health. Most interviewees stated that pressures exerted by the industry, by patients, or by senior physicians in the hospital are less relevant to decision making. Very small and usually not statistically significant differences in the ranking of hospital directors were found according to the hospitals' ownership, size, or location. The present study is a basis for a future study that will map and describe the function of hospital decision makers within the area of new technology assessment and the decision-making process in the adoption of new healthcare technologies.

Willed action, free will, and the stochastic neurodynamics of decision-making

PubMed Central

Rolls, Edmund T.

2012-01-01

It is shown that the randomness of the firing times of neurons in decision-making attractor neuronal networks that is present before the decision cues are applied can cause statistical fluctuations that influence the decision that will be taken. In this rigorous sense, it is possible to partially predict decisions before they are made. This raises issues about free will and determinism. There are many decision-making networks in the brain. Some decision systems operate to choose between gene-specified rewards such as taste, touch, and beauty (in for example the peacock's tail). Other processes capable of planning ahead with multiple steps held in working memory may require correction by higher order thoughts that may involve explicit, conscious, processing. The explicit system can allow the gene-specified rewards not to be selected or deferred. The decisions between the selfish gene-specified rewards, and the explicitly calculated rewards that are in the interests of the individual, the phenotype, may themselves be influenced by noise in the brain. When the explicit planning system does take the decision, it can report on its decision-making, and can provide a causal account rather than a confabulation about the decision process. We might use the terms “willed action” and “free will” to refer to the operation of the planning system that can think ahead over several steps held in working memory with which it can take explicit decisions. Reduced connectivity in some of the default mode cortical regions including the precuneus that are active during self-initiated action appears to be related to the reduction in the sense of self and agency, of causing willed actions, that can be present in schizophrenia. PMID:22973205

Centralized Analysis of Local Data, With Dollars and Lives on the Line: Lessons From The Home Radon Experience

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Price, PhillipN.; Gelman, Andrew

2014-11-24

In this chapter we elucidate four main themes. The first is that modern data analyses, including "Big Data" analyses, often rely on data from different sources, which can present challenges in constructing statistical models that can make effective use of all of the data. The second theme is that although data analysis is usually centralized, frequently the final outcome is to provide information or allow decision-making for individuals. Third, data analyses often have multiple uses by design: the outcomes of the analysis are intended to be used by more than one person or group, for more than one purpose. Finally,more » issues of privacy and confidentiality can cause problems in more subtle ways than are usually considered; we will illustrate this point by discussing a case in which there is substantial and effective political opposition to simply acknowledging the geographic distribution of a health hazard. A researcher analyzes some data and learns something important. What happens next? What does it take for the results to make a difference in people's lives? In this chapter we tell a story - a true story - about a statistical analysis that should have changed government policy, but didn't. The project was a research success that did not make its way into policy, and we think it provides some useful insights into the interplay between locally-collected data, statistical analysis, and individual decision making.« less

Supporting Students with Disabilities Entering the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics Field Disciplines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dishauzi, Karen M.

Extensive research exists on female, African American, and Hispanic students pursuing Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) field disciplines. However, little research evaluates students with disabilities and career decision-making relating to STEM field disciplines. This study explored the career decision-making experiences and self-efficacy for students with disabilities. The purpose of this research study was to document experiences and perceptions of students with disabilities who pursue, and may consider pursuing, careers in the STEM field disciplines by exploring the career decision-making self-efficacy of students with disabilities. This study documented the level of influence that the students with disabilities had or may not have had encountered from parents, friends, advisors, counselors, and instructors as they managed their decision-making choice relating to their academic major/career in the STEM or non-STEM field disciplines. A total of 85 respondents of approximately 340 students with disabilities at one Midwestern public university completed a quantitatively designed survey instrument. The Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy Scale-Short Form by Betz and Hackett was the instrument used, and additional questions were included in the survey. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and analysis of variance. Based upon the results, college students with disabilities are not currently being influenced by individuals and groups of individuals to pursue the STEM field disciplines. This is a cohort of individuals who can be marketed to increase enrollment in STEM programs at academic institutions. This research further found that gender differences at the institution under study did not affect the career decision-making self-efficacy scores. The men did not score any higher in confidence in career decision-making than the women. Disability type did not significantly affect the relationship between the Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy Total Scores or college major choice. Of the three disability types represented more frequently, the Mental Health disability was found to be a growing disability at the institution under study. This research was found to be beneficial in the documentation of specific levels of influence perceived by students with disabilities from parents, friends, advisors, counselors, and instructors that related to their career decision-making and academic major choices.

Predicting Team Performance through Human Behavioral Sensing and Quantitative Workflow Instrumentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-27

make risk-informed decisions during serious games . Statistical models of intra- game performance were developed to determine whether behaviors in...specific facets of the gameplay workflow were predictive of analytical performance and games outcomes. A study of over seventy instrumented teams revealed...more accurate game decisions. 2 Keywords: Humatics · Serious Games · Human-System Interaction · Instrumentation · Teamwork · Communication Analysis

Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dyer, J. S.; Miles, R. F., Jr.

1974-01-01

The use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. A set of 32 candidate trajectory pairs was developed. Cardinal utility function values were assigned to the trajectory pairs, and the data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used in selecting the science-preferred trajectory pair.

Evaluating Courses of Actions at the Strategic Planning Level

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

and statistical decision theory ( Schultz , Borrowman and Small 2011). Nowadays, it is hard to make a decision by ourselves. Modern organizations...Analysis." Lecture Slides, October 2011. Schultz , Martin T., Thomas D. Borrowman, and Mitchell J. Small. Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging...www.ukessays.com/essays/business/strategic-analysis-of-procter-and-gamble.php (accessed October 09, 2012). Vego, Milan . Joint Operational Warfare. Vol. Vol 1

Debts and Decisions: Student Loans and Their Relationship to Graduate School and Career Choice. New Agenda Series[TM], Volume 3, Number 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heller, Donald E.

This report examines the relationship between the amount of loans students take out during their undergraduate years and the decisions they make regarding careers and enrollment in graduate school. It uses data from the Baccalaureate and Beyond Survey (National Center for Education Statistics) of approximately 11,000 students who completed their…

Office for Civil Rights Survey Redesign: A Feasibility Survey. Contractor Report. Statistical Analysis Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mansfield, Wendy; Farris, Elizabeth

This report provides results of a Fast Response Survey System (FRSS) study conducted by the National Center for Education Statistics for the Office for Civil Rights (OCR). The OCR wanted input for their decision-making process on possible modifications to their biennial survey of a national sample of public school districts (PSDs). The survey, the…

Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.

PubMed Central

Riggan, W B; Manton, K G; Creason, J P; Woodbury, M A; Stallard, E

1991-01-01

Often environmental hazards are assessed by examining the spatial variation of disease-specific mortality or morbidity rates. These rates, when estimated for small local populations, can have a high degree of random variation or uncertainty associated with them. If those rate estimates are used to prioritize environmental clean-up actions or to allocate resources, then those decisions may be influenced by this high degree of uncertainty. Unfortunately, the effect of this uncertainty is not to add "random noise" into the decision-making process, but to systematically bias action toward the smallest populations where uncertainty is greatest and where extreme high and low rate deviations are most likely to be manifest by chance. We present a statistical procedure for adjusting rate estimates for differences in variability due to differentials in local area population sizes. Such adjustments produce rate estimates for areas that have better properties than the unadjusted rates for use in making statistically based decisions about the entire set of areas. Examples are provided for county variation in bladder, stomach, and lung cancer mortality rates for U.S. white males for the period 1970 to 1979. PMID:1820268

To t-Test or Not to t-Test? A p-Values-Based Point of View in the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Framework.

PubMed

Vexler, Albert; Yu, Jihnhee

2018-04-13

A common statistical doctrine supported by many introductory courses and textbooks is that t-test type procedures based on normally distributed data points are anticipated to provide a standard in decision-making. In order to motivate scholars to examine this convention, we introduce a simple approach based on graphical tools of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, a well-established biostatistical methodology. In this context, we propose employing a p-values-based method, taking into account the stochastic nature of p-values. We focus on the modern statistical literature to address the expected p-value (EPV) as a measure of the performance of decision-making rules. During the course of our study, we extend the EPV concept to be considered in terms of the ROC curve technique. This provides expressive evaluations and visualizations of a wide spectrum of testing mechanisms' properties. We show that the conventional power characterization of tests is a partial aspect of the presented EPV/ROC technique. We desire that this explanation of the EPV/ROC approach convinces researchers of the usefulness of the EPV/ROC approach for depicting different characteristics of decision-making procedures, in light of the growing interest regarding correct p-values-based applications.

Decision-making and cognitive abilities: A review of associations between Iowa Gambling Task performance, executive functions, and intelligence.

PubMed

Toplak, Maggie E; Sorge, Geoff B; Benoit, André; West, Richard F; Stanovich, Keith E

2010-07-01

The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been used to study decision-making differences in many different clinical and developmental samples. It has been suggested that IGT performance captures abilities that are separable from cognitive abilities, including executive functions and intelligence. The purpose of the current review was to examine studies that have explicitly examined the relationship between IGT performance and these cognitive abilities. We included 43 studies that reported correlational analyses with IGT performance, including measures of inhibition, working memory, and set-shifting as indices of executive functions, as well as measures of verbal, nonverbal, and full-scale IQ as indices of intelligence. Overall, only a small proportion of the studies reported a statistically significant relationship between IGT performance and these cognitive abilities. The majority of studies reported a non-significant relationship. Of the minority of studies that reported statistically significant effects, effect sizes were, at best, small to modest, and confidence intervals were large, indicating that considerable variability in performance on the IGT is not captured by current measures of executive function and intelligence. These findings highlight the separability between decision-making on the IGT and cognitive abilities, which is consistent with recent conceptualizations that differentiate rationality from intelligence. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Determining the efficacy of a high-school life-skills' programme in Huancavelica, Peru].

PubMed

Choque-Larrauri, Raúl; Chirinos-Cáceres, Jesús Lorenzo

2009-01-01

Determining the efficacy of a life-skills' programme within the context of a school health promotion programme using teenagers from a high-school in the district of Huancavelica, Peru during school year 2006. This was non-equivalent experimental research with pre-test and post-test. The subjects consisted of 284 high school students. The variables analyzed were communication, self esteem, assertiveness, decision making, sex and age. There was a significant increase in the experimental group's communication and assertiveness skills' development. There were no significant differences in decision-making and self-esteem skills. The life-skills' programme was effective during one school year, especially in terms of learning and developing communication and assertiveness skills. However, self-esteem and decision-making skills did not present a statistically significance difference. Programme implementation must thus be redirected and the life-skills' programme should be implemented throughout all high-school years.

An organizational intervention to influence evidence-informed decision making in home health nursing.

PubMed

Gifford, Wendy; Lefebre, Nancy; Davies, Barbara

2014-01-01

The aims of this study were to field test and evaluate a series of organizational strategies to promote evidence-informed decision making (EIDM) by nurse managers and clinical leaders in home healthcare. EIDM is central to delivering high-quality and effective healthcare. Barriers exist and organizational strategies are needed to support EIDM. Management and clinical leaders from 4 units participated in a 20-week organization-focused intervention. Preintervention (n = 32) and postintervention (n = 17) surveys and semistructured interviews (n = 15) were completed. Statistically significant increases were found on 4 of 31 survey items reflecting an increased organizational capacity for participants to acquire and apply research evidence in decision making. Support from designated facilitators with advanced skills in finding, appraising, and applying research was the highest rated intervention strategy. Results are useful to inform the development of organizational infrastructures to increase EIDM capacity in community-based healthcare organizations.

Family members' satisfaction with care and decision-making in intensive care units and post-stay follow-up needs-a cross-sectional survey study.

PubMed

Frivold, Gro; Slettebø, Åshild; Heyland, Daren K; Dale, Bjørg

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore family members' satisfaction with care and decision-making during the intensive care units stay and their follow-up needs after the patient's discharge or death. A cross-sectional survey study was conducted. Family members of patients recently treated in an ICU were participating. The questionnaire contented of background variables, the instrument Family Satisfaction in ICU (FS-ICU 24) and questions about follow-up needs. Descriptive and non-parametric statistics and a multiple linear regression were used in the analysis. A total of 123 (47%) relatives returned the questionnaire. Satisfaction with care was higher scored than satisfaction with decision-making. Follow- up needs after the ICU stay was reported by 19 (17%) of the participants. Gender and length of the ICU stay were shown as factors identified to predict follow-up needs.

Efficient decision-making by volume-conserving physical object

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Song-Ju; Aono, Masashi; Nameda, Etsushi

2015-08-01

Decision-making is one of the most important intellectual abilities of not only humans but also other biological organisms, helping their survival. This ability, however, may not be limited to biological systems and may be exhibited by physical systems. Here we demonstrate that any physical object, as long as its volume is conserved when coupled with suitable operations, provides a sophisticated decision-making capability. We consider the multi-armed bandit problem (MBP), the problem of finding, as accurately and quickly as possible, the most profitable option from a set of options that gives stochastic rewards. Efficient MBP solvers are useful for many practical applications, because MBP abstracts a variety of decision-making problems in real-world situations in which an efficient trial-and-error is required. These decisions are made as dictated by a physical object, which is moved in a manner similar to the fluctuations of a rigid body in a tug-of-war (TOW) game. This method, called ‘TOW dynamics’, exhibits higher efficiency than conventional reinforcement learning algorithms. We show analytical calculations that validate statistical reasons for TOW dynamics to produce the high performance despite its simplicity. These results imply that various physical systems in which some conservation law holds can be used to implement an efficient ‘decision-making object’. The proposed scheme will provide a new perspective to open up a physics-based analog computing paradigm and to understanding the biological information-processing principles that exploit their underlying physics.

Reproductive decision-making and determinants of contraceptive use in HIV-infected women.

PubMed

Williams, H A; Watkins, C E; Risby, J A

1996-06-01

Perinatal transmission and reproductive decisions of HIV-infected women can be categorized in statistical and epidemiological terms. These reports and figures, however, do little to fully explain the complexities of human relationships, life experiences, personal and cultural influences, and situational and environmental variables that impact on the HIV-infected woman regarding reproductive decision-making. It is only with genuine attempts to understand the woman's perspective and the dynamic and unique variables that influence reproductive decision-making, as well as maintaining a non-judgmental and culturally sensitive perspective, can we hope to assist women, and society as a whole, in coming to terms with the complexities of HIV and reproductive decision-making. Further study is needed to identify factors that influence reproductive decision-making in HIV-infected women. The determinants of contraceptive use regarding demographic factors, barriers to contraceptive use, and factors that contribute to successful contraceptive use in this population must be understood if efforts to reduce the number of unplanned pregnancies are to be successful. More conclusive data are needed on the safety and efficacy of oral contraceptives in HIV-infected women as well as data that describe the effects of longer acting hormonal contraceptives such as levonorgestrel implants (Norplant; Wyeth-Ayerst, Philadelphia, PA) and injectable medroxyprogesterone acetate (Depo Provera; Upjohn Company, Kalamazoo, MI). More research is needed to determine the effects of patient education and counseling and closer follow-up on effective long-term contraception in HIV-infected women.

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

Global health business: the production and performativity of statistics in Sierra Leone and Germany.

PubMed

Erikson, Susan L

2012-01-01

The global push for health statistics and electronic digital health information systems is about more than tracking health incidence and prevalence. It is also experienced on the ground as means to develop and maintain particular norms of health business, knowledge, and decision- and profit-making that are not innocent. Statistics make possible audit and accountability logics that undergird the management of health at a distance and that are increasingly necessary to the business of health. Health statistics are inextricable from their social milieus, yet as business artifacts they operate as if they are freely formed, objectively originated, and accurate. This article explicates health statistics as cultural forms and shows how they have been produced and performed in two very different countries: Sierra Leone and Germany. In both familiar and surprising ways, this article shows how statistics and their pursuit organize and discipline human behavior, constitute subject positions, and reify existing relations of power.

The Role of Psychological Adjustment in the Decision-making Process for Voluntary Termination of Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Sereno, Sara; Leal, Isabel; Maroco, João

2013-01-01

Background This study's objective was to evaluate the role of psychological adjustment in the decision-making process to have an abortion and explore individual variables that might influence this decision. Methods In this cross-sectional study, we sequentially enrolled 150 women who made the decision to voluntarily terminate a pregnancy in Maternity Dr. Alfredo da Costa, in Lisbon, Portugal, between September 2008 and June 2009. The instruments were the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS), Satisfaction with Social Support Scale (SSSS), Emotional Assessment Scale (EAS), Decision Conflict Scale (DCS), and Beliefs and Values Questionnaire (BVQ). We analyzed the data using Student's T-tests, MANOVA, ANOVA, Tukey's post-hoc tests and CATPCA. Statistically significant effects were accepted for p<0.05. Results The participants found the decision difficult and emotionally demanding, although they also identified it as a low conflict decision. The prevailing emotions were sadness, fear and stress; but despite these feelings, the participants remained psychologically adjusted in the moment they decided to have an abortion. The resolution to terminate the pregnancy was essentially shared with supportive people and it was mostly motivated by socio-economic issues. The different beliefs and values found in this sample, and their possible associations are discussed. Conclusion Despite high levels of stress, the women were psychologically adjusted at the time of making the decision to terminate the pregnancy. However, opposing what has been previously reported, the women presented high levels of sadness and fear, showing that this decision was hard to make, triggering disruptive emotions. PMID:24163799

Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

PubMed

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

2013-09-01

Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

An integrated review of the correlation between critical thinking ability and clinical decision-making in nursing.

PubMed

Lee, Daphne Sk; Abdullah, Khatijah Lim; Subramanian, Pathmawathi; Bachmann, Robert Thomas; Ong, Swee Leong

2017-12-01

To explore whether there is a correlation between critical thinking ability and clinical decision-making among nurses. Critical thinking is currently considered as an essential component of nurses' professional judgement and clinical decision-making. If confirmed, nursing curricula may be revised emphasising on critical thinking with the expectation to improve clinical decision-making and thus better health care. Integrated literature review. The integrative review was carried out after a comprehensive literature search using electronic databases Ovid, EBESCO MEDLINE, EBESCO CINAHL, PROQuest and Internet search engine Google Scholar. Two hundred and 22 articles from January 1980 to end of 2015 were retrieved. All studies evaluating the relationship between critical thinking and clinical decision-making, published in English language with nurses or nursing students as the study population, were included. No qualitative studies were found investigating the relationship between critical thinking and clinical decision-making, while 10 quantitative studies met the inclusion criteria and were further evaluated using the Quality Assessment and Validity Tool. As a result, one study was excluded due to a low-quality score, with the remaining nine accepted for this review. Four of nine studies established a positive relationship between critical thinking and clinical decision-making. Another five studies did not demonstrate a significant correlation. The lack of refinement in studies' design and instrumentation were arguably the main reasons for the inconsistent results. Research studies yielded contradictory results as regard to the relationship between critical thinking and clinical decision-making; therefore, the evidence is not convincing. Future quantitative studies should have representative sample size, use critical thinking measurement tools related to the healthcare sector and evaluate the predisposition of test takers towards their willingness and ability to think. There is also a need for qualitative studies to provide a fresh approach in exploring the relationship between these variables uncovering currently unknown contributing factors. This review confirmed that evidence to support the existence of relationships between critical thinking and clinical decision-making is still unsubstantiated. Therefore, it serves as a call for nurse leaders and nursing academics to produce quality studies in order to firmly support or reject the hypothesis that there is a statistically significant correlation between critical thinking and clinical decision-making. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The importance of early investigation and publishing in an emergent health and environment crisis.

PubMed

Murase, Kaori

2016-10-01

To minimize the damage resulting from a long-term environmental disaster such as the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, early disclosure of research data by scientists and prompt decision making by government authorities are required in place of careful, time-consuming research and deliberation about the consequences and cause of the accident. A Bayesian approach with flexible statistical modeling helps scientists and encourages government authorities to make decisions based on environmental data available in the early stages of a disaster. It is evident from Fukushima and similar accidents that classical research methods involving statistical methodologies that require rigorous experimental design and complex data sets are too cumbersome and delay important actions that may be critical in the early stages of an environmental disaster. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:680-682. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Challenges of assessing critical thinking and clinical judgment in nurse practitioner students.

PubMed

Gorton, Karen L; Hayes, Janice

2014-03-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a relationship between critical thinking skills and clinical judgment in nurse practitioner students. The study used a convenience, nonprobability sampling technique, engaging participants from across the United States. Correlational analysis demonstrated no statistically significant relationship between critical thinking skills and examination-style questions, critical thinking skills and scores on the evaluation and reevaluation of consequences subscale of the Clinical Decision Making in Nursing Scale, and critical thinking skills and the preceptor evaluation tool. The study found no statistically significant relationships between critical thinking skills and clinical judgment. Educators and practitioners could consider further research in these areas to gain insight into how critical thinking is and could be measured, to gain insight into the clinical decision making skills of nurse practitioner students, and to gain insight into the development and measurement of critical thinking skills in advanced practice educational programs. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Meeting the nutritional needs of patients with severe dysphagia following a stroke: an interdisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Rodrigue, Nathalie; Côté, Robert; Kirsch, Connie; Germain, Chantal; Couturier, Céline; Fraser, Roxanne

2002-03-01

Dysphagia is a common problem with individuals who have experienced a stroke. The interdisciplinary stroke team noted delays in clinical decision-making, or in implementing plans for patients with severe dysphagia requiring an alternative method to oral feeding, such as enteral feeding via Dobhoff (naso-jejunum) or PEG (percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy) tubes, occurred because protocols had not been established. This resulted in undernourishment, which in turn contributed to clinical problems, such as infections and confusion, which delayed rehabilitation and contributed to excess disability. The goal of the project was to improve quality of care and quality of life for stroke patients experiencing swallowing problems by creating a dysphagia management decision-making process. The project began with a retrospective chart review of 91 cases over a period of six months to describe the population characteristics, dysphagia frequency, stroke and dysphagia severity, and delays encountered with decision-making regarding dysphagia management. A literature search was conducted, and experts in the field were consulted to provide current knowledge prior to beginning the project. Using descriptive statistics, dysphagia was present in 44% of the stroke population and 69% had mild to moderate stroke severity deficit. Delays were found in the decision to insert a PEG (mean 10 days) and the time between decision and PEG insertion (mean 12 days). Critical periods were examined in order to speed up the process of decision-making and intervention. This resulted in the creation of a decision-making algorithm based on stroke and dysphagia severity that will be tested during winter 2002.

Joint probability of statistical success of multiple phase III trials.

PubMed

Zhang, Jianliang; Zhang, Jenny J

2013-01-01

In drug development, after completion of phase II proof-of-concept trials, the sponsor needs to make a go/no-go decision to start expensive phase III trials. The probability of statistical success (PoSS) of the phase III trials based on data from earlier studies is an important factor in that decision-making process. Instead of statistical power, the predictive power of a phase III trial, which takes into account the uncertainty in the estimation of treatment effect from earlier studies, has been proposed to evaluate the PoSS of a single trial. However, regulatory authorities generally require statistical significance in two (or more) trials for marketing licensure. We show that the predictive statistics of two future trials are statistically correlated through use of the common observed data from earlier studies. Thus, the joint predictive power should not be evaluated as a simplistic product of the predictive powers of the individual trials. We develop the relevant formulae for the appropriate evaluation of the joint predictive power and provide numerical examples. Our methodology is further extended to the more complex phase III development scenario comprising more than two (K > 2) trials, that is, the evaluation of the PoSS of at least k₀ (k₀≤ K) trials from a program of K total trials. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Affective Decision-Making and Tactical Behavior of Under-15 Soccer Players

PubMed Central

Gonzaga, Adeilton dos Santos; Albuquerque, Maicon Rodrigues; Malloy-Diniz, Leandro Fernandes; Greco, Pablo Juan; Teoldo da Costa, Israel

2014-01-01

Affective decision-making is a type of Executive Function related to cost benefit analysis in situations where gains and losses imply direct consequences for the subject. The purpose of this study was to explore the influence of the affective decision-making on tactical behavior in soccer players under the age of 15 years old. The System of Tactical Assessment in Soccer (FUT-SAT) was used to assess tactical behavior. To evaluate affective decision-making, we used the neuropsychological test called The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT). The values of the offensive, defensive and game tactical behavior of participants were used to create performance groups. The low (≤25%) and high (≥75%) groups, according to offensive, defensive and game tactical behavior, were compared and shown to be different. The values of the IGT net score of the participants with low and high tactical behavior were compared using the non-parametric Mann-Whitney test. Statistically significant differences between the groups were observed for Defensive Tactical Behavior (Z = −3.133; p = 0.002; r = −0.355) and Game Tactical Behavior (Z = −2.267; p = 0.023; r = −0.260). According to these results, it is possible to state that affective decision-making can influence the tactical behavior of under-15 soccer players. PMID:24978030

From Data to Improved Decisions: Operations Research in Healthcare Delivery.

PubMed

Capan, Muge; Khojandi, Anahita; Denton, Brian T; Williams, Kimberly D; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet; Kurt, Murat; Lobo, Jennifer Mason; Roberts, Mark S; Zaric, Greg; Zhang, Shengfan; Schwartz, J Sanford

2017-11-01

The Operations Research Interest Group (ORIG) within the Society of Medical Decision Making (SMDM) is a multidisciplinary interest group of professionals that specializes in taking an analytical approach to medical decision making and healthcare delivery. ORIG is interested in leveraging mathematical methods associated with the field of Operations Research (OR) to obtain data-driven solutions to complex healthcare problems and encourage collaborations across disciplines. This paper introduces OR for the non-expert and draws attention to opportunities where OR can be utilized to facilitate solutions to healthcare problems. Decision making is the process of choosing between possible solutions to a problem with respect to certain metrics. OR concepts can help systematically improve decision making through efficient modeling techniques while accounting for relevant constraints. Depending on the problem, methods that are part of OR (e.g., linear programming, Markov Decision Processes) or methods that are derived from related fields (e.g., regression from statistics) can be incorporated into the solution approach. This paper highlights the characteristics of different OR methods that have been applied to healthcare decision making and provides examples of emerging research opportunities. We illustrate OR applications in healthcare using previous studies, including diagnosis and treatment of diseases, organ transplants, and patient flow decisions. Further, we provide a selection of emerging areas for utilizing OR. There is a timely need to inform practitioners and policy makers of the benefits of using OR techniques in solving healthcare problems. OR methods can support the development of sustainable long-term solutions across disease management, service delivery, and health policies by optimizing the performance of system elements and analyzing their interaction while considering relevant constraints.

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

Implementing the Routine Computation and Use of Roadway Performance Measures within WSDOT

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-08-01

The Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) is one of the nation's leaders in calculating and using reliability statistics for urban freeways. The Department currently uses reliability measures for decision making for urban freeways-whe...

Financial Management and Control for Decision Making in Urban Local Bodies in India Using Statistical Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, Sidhakam; Bandyopadhyay, Gautam

2010-10-01

The council of most of the Urban Local Bodies (ULBs) has a limited scope for decision making in the absence of appropriate financial control mechanism. The information about expected amount of own fund during a particular period is of great importance for decision making. Therefore, in this paper, efforts are being made to present set of findings and to establish a model of estimating receipts of own sources and payments thereof using multiple regression analysis. Data for sixty months from a reputed ULB in West Bengal have been considered for ascertaining the regression models. This can be used as a part of financial management and control procedure by the council to estimate the effect on own fund. In our study we have considered two models using multiple regression analysis. "Model I" comprises of total adjusted receipt as the dependent variable and selected individual receipts as the independent variables. Similarly "Model II" consists of total adjusted payments as the dependent variable and selected individual payments as independent variables. The resultant of Model I and Model II is the surplus or deficit effecting own fund. This may be applied for decision making purpose by the council.

Behavioral Stage of Change and Dialysis Decision-Making

PubMed Central

McGrail, Anna; Lewis, Steven A.; Schold, Jesse; Lawless, Mary Ellen; Sehgal, Ashwini R.; Perzynski, Adam T.

2015-01-01

Background and objectives Behavioral stage of change (SoC) algorithms classify patients’ readiness for medical treatment decision-making. In the precontemplation stage, patients have no intention to take action within 6 months. In the contemplation stage, action is intended within 6 months. In the preparation stage, patients intend to take action within 30 days. In the action stage, the change has been made. This study examines the influence of SoC on dialysis modality decision-making. Design, setting, participants, & measurements SoC and relevant covariates were measured, and associations with dialysis decision-making were determined. In-depth interviews were conducted with 16 patients on dialysis to elicit experiences. Qualitative interview data informed the survey design. Surveys were administered to adults with CKD (eGFR≤25 ml/min/1.73 m2) from August, 2012 to June, 2013. Multivariable logistic regression modeled dialysis decision-making with predictors: SoC, provider connection, and dialysis knowledge score. Results Fifty-five patients completed the survey (71% women, 39% white, and 59% black), and median annual income was $17,500. In total, 65% of patients were in the precontemplation/contemplation (thinking) and 35% of patients were in the preparation/maintenance (acting) SoC; 62% of patients had made dialysis modality decisions. Doctors explaining modality options, higher dialysis knowledge scores, and fewer lifestyle barriers were associated with acting versus thinking SoC (all P<0.02). Patients making modality decisions had doctors who explained dialysis options (76% versus 43%), were in the acting versus the thinking SoC (50% versus 10%), had higher dialysis knowledge scores (1.4 versus 0.5), and had lower eGFR (13.9 versus 16.8 ml/min/1.73 m2; all P<0.05). In adjusted analyses, dialysis knowledge was significantly associated with decision-making (odds ratio, 4.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.4 to 12.9; P=0.01), and SoC was of borderline significance (odds ratio, 5.8; 95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 32.6; P=0.05). The model C statistic was 0.87. Conclusions Dialysis decision-making was associated with SoC, dialysis knowledge, and physicians discussing treatment options. Future studies determining ways to assist patients with CKD in making satisfying modality decisions are warranted. PMID:25591499

Financial statistics of major US investor-owned electric utilities 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-01

The Financial Statistics of Major U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities publication presents summary and detailed financial accounting data on the investor-owned electric utilities. The objective of the publication is to provide Federal and State Governments, industry, and the general public with current and historical data that can be used for making policy and decisions relating to investor-owned electric utility issues.

11.2 YIP Human In the Loop Statistical RelationalLearners

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-23

learning formalisms including inverse reinforcement learning [4] and statistical relational learning [7, 5, 8]. We have also applied our algorithms in...one introduced for label preferences. 4 Figure 2: Active Advice Seeking for Inverse Reinforcement Learning. active advice seeking is in selecting the...learning tasks. 1.2.1 Sequential Decision-Making Our previous work on advice for inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) defined advice as action

Basic statistics (the fundamental concepts).

PubMed

Lim, Eric

2014-12-01

An appreciation and understanding of statistics is import to all practising clinicians, not simply researchers. This is because mathematics is the fundamental basis to which we base clinical decisions, usually with reference to the benefit in relation to risk. Unless a clinician has a basic understanding of statistics, he or she will never be in a position to question healthcare management decisions that have been handed down from generation to generation, will not be able to conduct research effectively nor evaluate the validity of published evidence (usually making an assumption that most published work is either all good or all bad). This article provides a brief introduction to basic statistical methods and illustrates its use in common clinical scenarios. In addition, pitfalls of incorrect usage have been highlighted. However, it is not meant to be a substitute for formal training or consultation with a qualified and experienced medical statistician prior to starting any research project.

Statistical hypothesis testing and common misinterpretations: Should we abandon p-value in forensic science applications?

PubMed

Taroni, F; Biedermann, A; Bozza, S

2016-02-01

Many people regard the concept of hypothesis testing as fundamental to inferential statistics. Various schools of thought, in particular frequentist and Bayesian, have promoted radically different solutions for taking a decision about the plausibility of competing hypotheses. Comprehensive philosophical comparisons about their advantages and drawbacks are widely available and continue to span over large debates in the literature. More recently, controversial discussion was initiated by an editorial decision of a scientific journal [1] to refuse any paper submitted for publication containing null hypothesis testing procedures. Since the large majority of papers published in forensic journals propose the evaluation of statistical evidence based on the so called p-values, it is of interest to expose the discussion of this journal's decision within the forensic science community. This paper aims to provide forensic science researchers with a primer on the main concepts and their implications for making informed methodological choices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Patients' perceptions of sharing in decisions: a systematic review of interventions to enhance shared decision making in routine clinical practice.

PubMed

Légaré, France; Turcotte, Stéphane; Stacey, Dawn; Ratté, Stéphane; Kryworuchko, Jennifer; Graham, Ian D

2012-01-01

Shared decision making is the process in which a healthcare choice is made jointly by the health professional and the patient. Little is known about what patients view as effective or ineffective strategies to implement shared decision making in routine clinical practice. This systematic review evaluates the effectiveness of interventions to improve health professionals' adoption of shared decision making in routine clinical practice, as seen by patients. We searched electronic databases (PubMed, the Cochrane Library, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO) from their inception to mid-March 2009. We found additional material by reviewing the reference lists of the studies found in the databases; systematic reviews of studies on shared decision making; the proceedings of various editions of the International Shared Decision Making Conference; and the transcripts of the Society for Medical Decision Making's meetings. In our study selection, we included randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials, controlled before-and-after studies, and interrupted time series analyses in which patients evaluated interventions to improve health professionals' adoption of shared decision making. The interventions in question consisted of the distribution of printed educational material; educational meetings; audit and feedback; reminders; and patient-mediated initiatives (e.g. patient decision aids). Two reviewers independently screened the studies and extracted data. Statistical analyses considered categorical and continuous process measures. We computed the standardized effect size for each outcome at the 95% confidence interval. The primary outcome of interest was health professionals' adoption of shared decision making as reported by patients in a self-administered questionnaire. Of the 6764 search results, 21 studies reported 35 relevant comparisons. Overall, the quality of the studies ranged from 0% to 83%. Only three of the 21 studies reported a clinically significant effect for the primary outcome that favored the intervention. The first study compared an educational meeting and a patient-mediated intervention with another patient-mediated intervention (median improvement of 74%). The second compared an educational meeting, a patient-mediated intervention, and audit and feedback with an educational meeting on an alternative topic (improvement of 227%). The third compared an educational meeting and a patient-mediated intervention with usual care (p = 0.003). All three studies were limited to the patient-physician dyad. To reduce bias, future studies should improve methods and reporting, and should analyze costs and benefits, including those associated with training of health professionals. Multifaceted interventions that include educating health professionals about sharing decisions with patients and patient-mediated interventions, such as patient decision aids, appear promising for improving health professionals' adoption of shared decision making in routine clinical practice as seen by patients.

Cancer survival: an overview of measures, uses, and interpretation.

PubMed

Mariotto, Angela B; Noone, Anne-Michelle; Howlader, Nadia; Cho, Hyunsoon; Keel, Gretchen E; Garshell, Jessica; Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M

2014-11-01

Survival statistics are of great interest to patients, clinicians, researchers, and policy makers. Although seemingly simple, survival can be confusing: there are many different survival measures with a plethora of names and statistical methods developed to answer different questions. This paper aims to describe and disseminate different survival measures and their interpretation in less technical language. In addition, we introduce templates to summarize cancer survival statistic organized by their specific purpose: research and policy versus prognosis and clinical decision making. Published by Oxford University Press 2014.

Cancer Survival: An Overview of Measures, Uses, and Interpretation

PubMed Central

Noone, Anne-Michelle; Howlader, Nadia; Cho, Hyunsoon; Keel, Gretchen E.; Garshell, Jessica; Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M.

2014-01-01

Survival statistics are of great interest to patients, clinicians, researchers, and policy makers. Although seemingly simple, survival can be confusing: there are many different survival measures with a plethora of names and statistical methods developed to answer different questions. This paper aims to describe and disseminate different survival measures and their interpretation in less technical language. In addition, we introduce templates to summarize cancer survival statistic organized by their specific purpose: research and policy versus prognosis and clinical decision making. PMID:25417231

Normative evidence accumulation in unpredictable environments

PubMed Central

Glaze, Christopher M; Kable, Joseph W; Gold, Joshua I

2015-01-01

In our dynamic world, decisions about noisy stimuli can require temporal accumulation of evidence to identify steady signals, differentiation to detect unpredictable changes in those signals, or both. Normative models can account for learning in these environments but have not yet been applied to faster decision processes. We present a novel, normative formulation of adaptive learning models that forms decisions by acting as a leaky accumulator with non-absorbing bounds. These dynamics, derived for both discrete and continuous cases, depend on the expected rate of change of the statistics of the evidence and balance signal identification and change detection. We found that, for two different tasks, human subjects learned these expectations, albeit imperfectly, then used them to make decisions in accordance with the normative model. The results represent a unified, empirically supported account of decision-making in unpredictable environments that provides new insights into the expectation-driven dynamics of the underlying neural signals. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08825.001 PMID:26322383

Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

2014-11-01

We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n ≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E . We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

Assessment of Characteristic Function Modulus of Vibroacoustic Signal Given a Limit State Parameter of Diagnosed Equipment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostyukov, V. N.; Naumenko, A. P.; Kudryavtseva, I. S.

2018-01-01

Improvement of distinguishing criteria, determining defects of machinery and mechanisms, by vibroacoustic signals is a recent problem for technical diagnostics. The work objective is assessment of instantaneous values by methods of statistical decision making theory and risk of regulatory values of characteristic function modulus. The modulus of the characteristic function is determined given a fixed parameter of the characteristic function. It is possible to determine the limits of the modulus, which correspond to different machine’s condition. The data of the modulus values are used as diagnostic features in the vibration diagnostics and monitoring systems. Using such static decision-making methods as: minimum number of wrong decisions, maximum likelihood, minimax, Neumann-Pearson characteristic function modulus limits are determined, separating conditions of a diagnosed object.

Intrinsic Factors Influencing Decision making of Arbitrators in Dispute Resolution of variation Claims

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, K. C.; Chaphalkar, N. B.; Patil, Smita K.

2018-06-01

Occurrence of disputes is a common feature in construction contracts. Adjudication of disputes through the arbitration process involves detailed and through analysis of facts and evidences related to the case before arriving at the final decision. These facts and evidences have been explored by researchers to develop dispute resolution mechanisms. As a part of the research, the present work identifies the factors which influence the decision making of arbitrators in resolving disputes through a case study of 72 arbitration awards and settled court cases related to Indian construction contracts. This work further seeks consensus for the identified factors from experts and also ranks the factors based on their importance with the help of the responses obtained through a questionnaire survey and statistical tests.

Using measurement uncertainty in decision-making and conformity assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pendrill, L. R.

2014-08-01

Measurements often provide an objective basis for making decisions, perhaps when assessing whether a product conforms to requirements or whether one set of measurements differs significantly from another. There is increasing appreciation of the need to account for the role of measurement uncertainty when making decisions, so that a ‘fit-for-purpose’ level of measurement effort can be set prior to performing a given task. Better mutual understanding between the metrologist and those ordering such tasks about the significance and limitations of the measurements when making decisions of conformance will be especially useful. Decisions of conformity are, however, currently made in many important application areas, such as when addressing the grand challenges (energy, health, etc), without a clear and harmonized basis for sharing the risks that arise from measurement uncertainty between the consumer, supplier and third parties. In reviewing, in this paper, the state of the art of the use of uncertainty evaluation in conformity assessment and decision-making, two aspects in particular—the handling of qualitative observations and of impact—are considered key to bringing more order to the present diverse rules of thumb of more or less arbitrary limits on measurement uncertainty and percentage risk in the field. (i) Decisions of conformity can be made on a more or less quantitative basis—referred in statistical acceptance sampling as by ‘variable’ or by ‘attribute’ (i.e. go/no-go decisions)—depending on the resources available or indeed whether a full quantitative judgment is needed or not. There is, therefore, an intimate relation between decision-making, relating objects to each other in terms of comparative or merely qualitative concepts, and nominal and ordinal properties. (ii) Adding measures of impact, such as the costs of incorrect decisions, can give more objective and more readily appreciated bases for decisions for all parties concerned. Such costs are associated with a variety of consequences, such as unnecessary re-manufacturing by the supplier as well as various consequences for the customer, arising from incorrect measures of quantity, poor product performance and so on.

Preferred and Perceived Participation of Younger and Older Patients in Decision Making About Treatment for Early Breast Cancer: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Hamelinck, Victoria C; Bastiaannet, Esther; Pieterse, Arwen H; van de Velde, Cornelis J H; Liefers, Gerrit-Jan; Stiggelbout, Anne M

2018-04-01

Older patients are believed to prefer a more passive role in treatment decision making, but studies reporting this relation were conducted over a decade ago or were retrospective. We prospectively compared younger (40-64 years) versus older (≥ 65 years) breast cancer patients' preferences for decision-making roles and their perceived actual roles. A prospective multicenter study was conducted in Leiden, The Hague, and Tilburg over a 2-year period. Early-stage breast cancer patients were surveyed about their preferred and perceived decision-making roles (active, shared, or passive) concerning surgery type (breast-conserving vs. mastectomy) (n = 74), adjuvant chemotherapy (aCT, n = 43), and adjuvant hormonal therapy (aHT, n = 39). For all decisions, both age groups most frequently preferred a shared role before consultation, except for decisions about aHT, for which younger patients more commonly preferred an active role. The proportion of patients favoring an active or passive role in each decision was lower for the older than the younger patients, but none of the differences was significant. Regarding perceived actual roles, both groups most frequently reported an active role in the surgical decision after consultation. In deciding about both aCT and aHT, a larger proportion of older patients perceived having had a passive role compared to younger patients, and a greater proportion of younger patients perceived having been active. Again, differences were not statistically significant. Most older patients preferred to decide together with their clinician, but preferences varied widely. Older patients more often than younger patients perceived they had not been involved in decisions about systemic therapy. Clinicians should invite all patients to participate in decision making and elicit their preferred role. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Financial statistics for public health dispensary decisions in Nigeria: insights on standard presentation typologies.

PubMed

Agundu, Prince Umor C

2003-01-01

Public health dispensaries in Nigeria in recent times have demonstrated the poise to boost corporate productivity in the new millennium and to drive the nation closer to concretising the lofty goal of health-for-all. This is very pronounced considering the face-lift giving to the physical environment, increase in the recruitment and development of professionals, and upward review of financial subventions. However, there is little or no emphasis on basic statistical appreciation/application which enhances the decision making ability of corporate executives. This study used the responses from 120 senior public health officials in Nigeria and analyzed them with chi-square statistical technique. The results established low statistical aptitude, inadequate statistical training programmes, little/no emphasis on statistical literacy compared to computer literacy, amongst others. Consequently, it was recommended that these lapses be promptly addressed to enhance official executive performance in the establishments. Basic statistical data presentation typologies have been articulated in this study to serve as first-aid instructions to the target group, as they represent the contributions of eminent scholars in this area of intellectualism.

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hakil; Swain, Philip H.

1990-01-01

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Computerized Cognition Laboratory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Motes, Michael A.; Wiegmann, Douglas A.

1999-01-01

Describes a software package entitled the "Computerized Cognition Laboratory" that helps integrate the teaching of cognitive psychology and research methods. Allows students to explore short-term memory, long-term memory, and decision making. Can also be used to teach the application of several statistical procedures. (DSK)

A multi-criteria decision making approach to identify a vaccine formulation.

PubMed

Dewé, Walthère; Durand, Christelle; Marion, Sandie; Oostvogels, Lidia; Devaster, Jeanne-Marie; Fourneau, Marc

2016-01-01

This article illustrates the use of a multi-criteria decision making approach, based on desirability functions, to identify an appropriate adjuvant composition for an influenza vaccine to be used in elderly. The proposed adjuvant system contained two main elements: monophosphoryl lipid and α-tocopherol with squalene in an oil/water emulsion. The objective was to elicit a stronger immune response while maintaining an acceptable reactogenicity and safety profile. The study design, the statistical models, the choice of the desirability functions, the computation of the overall desirability index, and the assessment of the robustness of the ranking are all detailed in this manuscript.

Decision-Making in Pediatric Transport Team Dispatch Using Script Concordance Testing.

PubMed

Rajapreyar, Prakadeshwari; Marcdante, Karen; Zhang, Liyun; Simpson, Pippa; Meyer, Michael T

2017-11-01

Our objective was to compare decision-making in dispatching pediatric transport teams by Medical Directors of pediatric transport teams (serving as experts) to that of Pediatric Intensivists and Critical Care fellows who often serve as Medical Control physicians. Understanding decision-making around team composition and dispatch could impact clinical management, cost effectiveness, and educational needs. Survey was developed using Script Concordance Testing guidelines. The survey contained 15 transport case vignettes covering 20 scenarios (45 questions). Eleven scenarios assessed impact of intrinsic patient factors (e.g., procedural needs), whereas nine assessed extrinsic factors (e.g., weather). Pediatric Critical Care programs accredited by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (the United States). Pediatric Intensivists and senior Critical Care fellows at Pediatric Critical Care programs were the target population with Transport Medical Directors serving as the expert panel. None. Survey results were scored per Script Concordance Testing guidelines. Concordance within groups was assessed using simple percentage agreement. There was little concordance in decision-making by Transport Medical Directors (median Script Concordance Testing percentage score [interquartile range] of 33.9 [30.4-37.3]). In addition, there was no statistically significant difference between the median Script Concordance Testing scores among the senior fellows and Pediatric Intensivists (31.1 [29.6-33.2] vs 29.7 [28.3-32.3], respectively; p = 0.12). Transport Medical Directors were more concordant on reasoning involving intrinsic patient factors rather than extrinsic factors (10/21 vs 4/24). Our study demonstrates pediatric transport team dispatch decision-making discordance by pediatric critical care physicians of varying levels of expertise and experience. Script Concordance Testing at a local level may better elucidate standards in medical decision-making within pediatric critical care physicians. The development of a curriculum, which provides education and trains our workforce on the logistics of pediatric transport team dispatch, would help standardize practice and evaluate outcomes based on decision-making.

Feasibility of functional neuroimaging to understand adolescent women's sexual decision making.

PubMed

Hensel, Devon J; Hummer, Tom A; Acrurio, Lindsay R; James, Thomas W; Fortenberry, J Dennis

2015-04-01

For young women, new sexual experiences normatively increase after puberty and coincide with extensive changes to brain regions governing self-regulation of risk behavior. These neurodevelopmental changes could leave some young women vulnerable for negative sexual outcomes, including sexually transmitted infection and unintended pregnancy. We evaluated the feasibility of using functional neuroimaging to understand the sexual decision making of adolescent women. Adolescent women (N = 14; 14-15 years) completed enrollment interviews, a neuroimaging task gauging neural activation to appetitive stimuli, and 30 days of prospective diaries following the scan characterizing daily affect and sexual behaviors. Descriptive and inferential statistics assessed the association between imaging and behavioral data. Young women were highly compliant with neuroimaging and diary protocol. Neural activity in a cognitive-affective network, including prefrontal and anterior cingulate regions, was significantly greater during low-risk decisions. Compared with other decisions, high-risk sexual decisions elicited greater activity in the anterior cingulate, and low-risk sexual decision elicited greater activity in regions of the visual cortex. Young women's sexual decision ratings were linked to their sexual history characteristics and daily self-reports of sexual emotions and behaviors. It is feasible to recruit and retain a cohort of female participants to perform a functional magnetic resonance imaging task focused on making decisions about sex, on the basis of varying levels of hypothetical sexual risk, and to complete longitudinal prospective diaries following this task. Preliminary evidence suggests that risk level differentially impacts brain activity related to sexual decision making in these women, which may be related to past and future sexual behaviors. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Balance Sheets Versus Decision Dashboards to Support Patient Treatment Choices: A Comparative Analysis.

PubMed

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J

2015-12-01

Growing recognition of the importance of involving patients in preference-driven healthcare decisions has highlighted the need to develop practical strategies to implement patient-centered shared decision-making. The use of tabular balance sheets to support clinical decision-making is well established. More recent evidence suggests that graphic, interactive decision dashboards can help people derive deeper a understanding of information within a specific decision context. We therefore conducted a non-randomized trial comparing the effects of adding an interactive dashboard to a static tabular balance sheet on patient decision-making. The study population consisted of members of the ResearchMatch registry who volunteered to participate in a study of medical decision-making. Two separate surveys were conducted: one in the control group and one in the intervention group. All participants were instructed to imagine they were newly diagnosed with a chronic illness and were asked to choose between three hypothetical drug treatments, which varied with regard to effectiveness, side effects, and out-of-pocket cost. Both groups made an initial treatment choice after reviewing a balance sheet. After a brief "washout" period, members of the control group made a second treatment choice after reviewing the balance sheet again, while intervention group members made a second treatment choice after reviewing an interactive decision dashboard containing the same information. After both choices, participants rated their degree of confidence in their choice on a 1 to 10 scale. Members of the dashboard intervention group were more likely to change their choice of preferred drug (10.2 versus 7.5%; p = 0.054) and had a larger increase in decision confidence than the control group (0.67 versus 0.075; p < 0.03). There were no statistically significant between-group differences in decisional conflict or decision aid acceptability. These findings suggest that clinical decision dashboards may be an effective point-of-care decision-support tool. Further research to explore this possibility is warranted.

Impaired decision making in opiate addiction correlates with anxiety and self-directedness but not substance use parameters.

PubMed

Lemenager, Tagrid; Richter, Anne; Reinhard, Iris; Gelbke, Jan; Beckmann, Bettina; Heinrich, Milena; Kniest, Anja; Mann, Karl; Hermann, Derik

2011-09-01

Despite a large number of empirical reports of impaired decision making in substance use disorders, the underlying factors contributing to such deficits remain to be elucidated. This study examined the potential influences of personality traits, affective symptoms, and pharmacological variables on decision making, as measured by the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) in a sample of opioid-dependent patients. A total of 46 opioid-dependent patients taking part in an opiate maintenance outpatient program and 46 healthy control subjects performed the IGT. Personality traits and affective symptoms were examined by using Zuckerman Sensation-Seeking Scale, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck Depression Inventory. In addition, Cloninger Temperament and Character Inventory was administered in the patient group. Information on current and life-time substance use was acquired with a standardized interview. Opioid-dependent patients performed significantly worse on the IGT than controls. This difference disappeared after statistically controlling for trait anxiety, state anxiety, disinhibition, depressive symptoms, and lifetime alcohol consumption. Trait and state anxiety and self-directedness were significantly associated with the IGT final score. Hierarchical regression analyses suggested that self-directedness differentially moderated the relationships between the anxiety variables and IGT performance. The decision-making impairments observed in opioid-dependent patients are influenced by current levels of anxiety and the personality markers trait anxiety and self-directedness. Differences in decision making between opioid-dependent and healthy individuals may also be due to differences in other personality facets, affective symptoms, and alcohol consumption. Amount of opioid and other substance intake did not show any effects. These results indicate that psychological characteristics may have a higher impact on decision-making performance than drug-induced pharmacological effects.

Quality improvement in multidisciplinary cancer teams: an investigation of teamwork and clinical decision-making and cross-validation of assessments.

PubMed

Lamb, B W; Sevdalis, N; Mostafid, H; Vincent, C; Green, J S A

2011-12-01

Teamworking and clinical decision-making are important in multidisciplinary cancer teams (MDTs). Our objective is to assess the quality of information presentation and MDT members' contribution to decision-making via expert observation and self-report, aiming to cross-validate the two methods and assess the insight of MDT members into their own team performance. Behaviors were scored using (i) a validated observational tool employing Likert scales with objective anchors, and (ii) a 29-question online self-report tool. Data were collected from observation of 164 cases in five MDTs, and 47 surveys from MDT members (response rate 70%). Presentation of information (case history, radiological, pathological, comorbidities, psychosocial, and patients' views) and quality of contribution to decision-making of MDT members (surgeons, oncologists, radiologists, pathologists, nurses, and MDT coordinators) were analyzed via descriptive statistics and the Jonckheere-Terpstra test. Correlation between observational and self-report assessments was assessed with Spearman's correlations. Quality of information presentation: Case histories and radiology information rated highest; patients' views and comorbidities/psychosocial issues rated lowest (observed: Z = 14.80, P ≤ 0.001; self-report: Z = 3.70, P < 0.001). Contribution to decision-making: Surgeons and oncologists rated highest, nurses and MDT coordinators rated lowest, and others in between (observed: Z = 20.00, P ≤ 0.001; self-report: Z = 8.10, P < 0.001). Correlations between observational and self-report assessments: Median Spearman's rho = 0.74 (range = 0.66-0.91; P < 0.05). The quality of teamworking and clinical decision-making in MDTs can reliably be assessed using observational and self-report metrics. MDT members have good insight into their own team performance. Such robust assessment methods could provide the basis of a toolkit for MDT team evaluation and improvement.

With directed study before a 4-day operating room management course, trust in the content did not change progressively during the classroom time.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Epstein, Richard H; Fahy, Brenda G; Van Swol, Lyn M

2017-11-01

A 4-day course in operating room (OR) management is sufficient to provide anesthesiologists with the knowledge and problem solving skills needed to participate in projects of the systems-based-practice competency. Anesthesiologists may need to learn fewer topics when the objective is, instead, limited to comprehension of decision-making on the day of surgery, We tested the hypothesis that trust in course content would not increase further after completion of topics related to OR decision-making on the day of surgery. Panel survey. A 4-day 35hour course in OR management. Mandatory assignments before classes were: 1) review of statistics at a level slightly less than required of anesthesiology residents by the American Board of Anesthesiology; and 2) reading of peer-reviewed published articles while learning the scientific vocabulary. N=31 course participants who each attended 1 of 4 identical courses. At the end of each of the 4days, course participants completed a 9-item scale assessing trust in the course content, namely, its quality, usefulness, and reliability. Cronbach alpha for the 1 to 7 trust scale was 0.94. The means±SD of scores were 5.86±0.80 after day #1, 5.81±0.76 after day #2, 5.80±0.77 after day #3, and 5.97±0.76 after day #4. Multiple methods of statistical analysis all found that there was no significant effect of the number of days of the course on trust in the content (all P≥0.30). Trust in the course content did not increase after the end of the 1st day. Therefore, statistics review, reading, and the 1st day of the course appear sufficient when the objective of teaching OR management is not that participants will learn how to make the decisions, but will comprehend them and trust in the information underlying knowledgeable decision-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Shared Decision-Making in Oncology - A Qualitative Analysis of Healthcare Providers' Views on Current Practice.

PubMed

Frerichs, Wiebke; Hahlweg, Pola; Müller, Evamaria; Adis, Christine; Scholl, Isabelle

2016-01-01

Despite an increased awareness of shared decision-making (SDM) and its prominent position on the health policy agenda, its implementation in routine care remains a challenge in Germany. In order to overcome this challenge, it is important to understand healthcare providers' views regarding SDM and to take their perspectives and opinions into account in the development of an implementation program. The present study aimed at exploring a) the attitudes of different healthcare providers regarding SDM in oncology and b) their experiences with treatment decisions in daily practice. A qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and individual interviews with different healthcare providers at the University Cancer Center Hamburg, Germany. Focus groups and interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analyzed using conventional content analysis and descriptive statistics. N = 4 focus groups with a total of N = 25 participants and N = 17 individual interviews were conducted. Attitudes regarding SDM varied greatly between the different participants, especially concerning the definition of SDM, the attitude towards the degree of patient involvement in decision-making and assumptions about when SDM should take place. Experiences on how treatment decisions are currently made varied. Negative experiences included time and structural constraints, and a lack of (multidisciplinary) communication. Positive experiences comprised informed patients, involvement of relatives and a good physician-patient relationship. The results show that German healthcare providers in oncology have a range of attitudes that currently function as barriers towards the implementation of SDM. Also, their experiences on how decision-making is currently done reveal difficulties in actively involving patients in decision-making processes. It will be crucial to take these attitudes and experiences seriously and to subsequently disentangle existing misconceptions in future implementation programs.

The role of risk aversion in non-conscious decision making.

PubMed

Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

2012-01-01

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects' post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk.

The Role of Risk Aversion in Non-Conscious Decision Making

PubMed Central

Wang, Shuo; Krajbich, Ian; Adolphs, Ralph; Tsuchiya, Naotsugu

2012-01-01

To what extent can people choose advantageously without knowing why they are making those choices? This hotly debated question has capitalized on the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), in which people often learn to choose advantageously without appearing to know why. However, because the IGT is unconstrained in many respects, this finding remains debated and other interpretations are possible (e.g., risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, limits of working memory, or insensitivity to reward/punishment can explain the finding of the IGT). Here we devised an improved variant of the IGT in which the deck-payoff contingency switches after subjects repeatedly choose from a good deck, offering the statistical power of repeated within-subject measures based on learning the reward contingencies associated with each deck. We found that participants exhibited low confidence in their choices, as probed with post-decision wagering, despite high accuracy in selecting advantageous decks in the task, which is putative evidence for non-conscious decision making. However, such a behavioral dissociation could also be explained by risk aversion, a tendency to avoid risky decisions under uncertainty. By explicitly measuring risk aversion for each individual, we predicted subjects’ post-decision wagering using Bayesian modeling. We found that risk aversion indeed does play a role, but that it did not explain the entire effect. Moreover, independently measured risk aversion was uncorrelated with risk aversion exhibited during our version of the IGT, raising the possibility that the latter risk aversion may be non-conscious. Our findings support the idea that people can make optimal choices without being fully aware of the basis of their decision. We suggest that non-conscious decision making may be mediated by emotional feelings of risk that are based on mechanisms distinct from those that support cognitive assessment of risk. PMID:22375133

Experiential and rational decision making: a survey to determine how emergency physicians make clinical decisions.

PubMed

Calder, Lisa A; Forster, Alan J; Stiell, Ian G; Carr, Laura K; Brehaut, Jamie C; Perry, Jeffrey J; Vaillancourt, Christian; Croskerry, Patrick

2012-10-01

Dual-process psychological theories argue that clinical decision making is achieved through a combination of experiential (fast and intuitive) and rational (slower and systematic) cognitive processes. To determine whether emergency physicians perceived their clinical decisions in general to be more experiential or rational and how this compared with other physicians. A validated psychometric tool, the Rational Experiential Inventory (REI-40), was sent through postal mail to all emergency physicians registered with the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario, according to their website in November 2009. Forty statements were ranked on a Likert scale from 1 (Definitely False) to 5 (Definitely True). An initial survey was sent out, followed by reminder cards and a second survey to non-respondents. Analysis included descriptive statistics, Student t tests, analysis of variance and comparison of mean scores with those of cardiologists from New Zealand. The response rate in this study was 46.9% (434/925). The respondents' median age was 41-50 years; they were mostly men (72.6%) and most had more than 10 years of clinical experience (66.8%). The mean REI-40 rational scores were higher than the experiential scores (3.93/5 (SD 0.35) vs 3.33/5 (SD 0.49), p<0.0001), similar to the mean scores of cardiologists from New Zealand (mean rational 3.93/5, mean experiential 3.05/5). The mean experiential scores were significantly higher for female respondents than for male respondents (3.40/5 (SD 0.49) vs 3.30/5 (SD 0.48), p=0.003). Overall, emergency physicians favoured rational decision making rather than experiential decision making; however, female emergency physicians had higher experiential scores than male emergency physicians. This has important implications for future knowledge translation and decision support efforts among emergency physicians.

Pregnant women's perspectives on decision-making when a fetal malformation is detected by ultrasound examination.

PubMed

Asplin, Nina; Wessel, Hans; Marions, Lena; Ohman, Susanne Georgsson

2013-06-01

The aims of the study were to explore factors influencing the decision to continue or terminate pregnancy due to detection of fetal malformation following ultrasound examination, to elucidate the need for more information or other routines to facilitate the decision-making process and to assess satisfaction with the decision made. Descriptive study. Four fetal care referral centres in Stockholm, Sweden. Pregnant women with a detected fetal malformation. Data was collected by questionnaires. 134 women participated, 99 completing the questionnaire. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed. Both women who continued and those who terminated pregnancy based their decision on the severity of the malformation. Other reasons for terminating the pregnancy were aspects including socioeconomic considerations. None stated religious factors. The doctor at the fetal care unit also had an influence on the decision-making. The timeframe receiving information was regarded as long enough in duration but not the number of occasions. In both groups the women made the decision by themselves or together with their partners. The majority experienced that they had made the right decision. Women who terminated their pregnancy had a significant higher rate (51.2%) (p < or = 0.004) of previous abortions than those in the continuing group (23.2%). The decision to continue or terminate the pregnancy was to a great extent based on the severity of the malformation. Religious aspects did not seem to influence the decision. Many women expressed a need for additional occasion of information. The vast majority of women were satisfied with their decision. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Are advance directives helpful for good end of life decision making: a cross sectional survey of health professionals.

PubMed

Peicius, Eimantas; Blazeviciene, Aurelija; Kaminskas, Raimondas

2017-06-05

This paper joins the debate over changes in the role of health professionals when applying advance directives to manage the decision-making process at the end of life care. Issues in relation to advance directives occur in clinical units in Lithuania; however, it remains one of the few countries in the European Union (EU) where the discussion on advance directives is not included in the health-care policy-making agenda. To encourage the discussion of advance directives, a study was designed to examine health professionals' understanding and preferences related to advance directives. In addition, the study sought to explore the views of health care professionals of the application of Advance Directives (AD) in clinical practice in Lithuania. A cross-sectional survey was conducted by interviewing 478 health professionals based at major health care centers in Kaunas district, Lithuania. The design of the study included the use of a questionnaire developed for this study and validated by a pilot study. The collected data were analyzed using standard descriptive statistical methods. The analysis of knowledge about AD revealed some statistically significant differences when comparing the respondents' profession and gender. The analysis also indicated key emerging themes among respondents including tranquility of mind, the longest possible life expectancy and freedom of choice. Further, the study findings revealed that more than half of the study participants preferred to express their will while alive by using advance directives. The study findings revealed a low level of knowledge on advance directives among health professionals. Most health professionals agreed that AD's improved end-of-life decision making while the majority of physicians appreciated AD as the best tool for sharing responsibilities in clinical practice in Lithuania. More physicians than nurses preferred the presence of advance directives to support their decision making in end-of-life situations.

Testing decision-making competency of schizophrenia participants in clinical trials. A meta-analysis and meta-regression.

PubMed

Hostiuc, Sorin; Rusu, Mugurel Constantin; Negoi, Ionut; Drima, Eduard

2018-01-05

The process of assessing the decision-making capacity of potential subjects before their inclusion in clinical trials is a legal requirement and a moral obligation, as it is essential for respecting their autonomy. This issue is especially important in psychiatry patients (such as those diagnosed with schizophrenia). The primary purpose of this article was to evaluate the degree of impairment in each dimension of decision-making capacity in schizophrenia patients compared to non-mentally-ill controls, as quantified by the (MacCAT-CR) instrument. Secondary objectives were (1) to see whether enhanced consent forms are associated with a significant increase in decision-making capacity in schizophrenia patients, and (2) if decision-making capacity in schizophrenia subjects is dependent on the age, gender, or the inpatient status of the subjects. We systematically reviewed the results obtained from three databases: ISI Web of Science, Pubmed, Scopus. Each database was scrutinised using the following keywords: "MacCAT-CR + schizophrenia", "decision-making capacity + schizophrenia", and "informed consent + schizophrenia." We included 13 studies in the analysis. The effect size between the schizophrenia and the control group was significant, with a difference in means of -4.43 (-5.76; -3.1, p < 0.001) for understanding, -1.17 (-1.49, -0.84, p < 0.001) for appreciation, -1.29 (-1.79, -0.79, p < 0.001) for reasoning, and -0.05 (-0.9, -0.01, p = 0.022) for expressing a choice. Even if schizophrenia patients have a significantly decreased decision-making capacity compared to non-mentally-ill controls, they should be considered as competent unless very severe changes are identifiable during clinical examination. Enhanced informed consent forms decrease the differences between schizophrenia patients and non-mentally-ill controls (except for the reasoning dimension) and should be used whenever the investigators want to include more ill patients in their clinical trials. Increased age, men gender and an increased percentage of inpatients might increase the differential of decision-making incompetence compared to non-mentally-ill subjects in various dimensions of the decision-making competence as analysed by the MacCAT-CR scale, but the small number of subjects did not allow us (except for one instance) to reach statistical significance.

The influence of providing a clinical practice guideline on dental students' decision making.

PubMed

van der Sanden, Wil J M; Mettes, Dirk G; Plasschaert, Alphons J M; Mulder, Jan; Verdonschot, Emiel H

2004-02-01

The aim of this study was to assess the effect of the provision of a clinical practice guideline (CPG) on dental students' decisions to remove asymptomatic, impacted lower third molars. All dental students, who in 2001 were in the 3rd, 4th or 5th (final) year of their study at the Nijmegen College of Dental Sciences, were invited to participate. A pre-test-post-test control group design was used. Given 36 patient cases, all dental students were asked to assess the need for removal of asymptomatic, impacted lower third molars. All pre-test respondents were randomly allocated to the control or intervention group. After the provision of a CPG to the intervention group, both groups were asked to assess the same cases again. Frequencies of decisions to remove the third molars were calculated. Chi-square tests and anova were used to test the influence of study year and gender on the drop-out rate and on the effect of the provision of a CPG on students' treatment decisions. The decrease in indications to remove third molars by the intervention group was statistically significant (P < 0.05). In the control group, no significant decrease was observed. It was concluded that the provision of a CPG significantly influences dental students' decision making about treatment in a third-molar decision task. Students who used the CPG showed more guideline-conformed decision making.

Sibling relationships as a resource for coping with traumatic events.

PubMed

Perricone, Giovanna; Fontana, Valentina; Burgio, Sofia; Polizzi, Concetta

2014-01-01

The study investigated the correlation between the perception of sibling relationship to cope an adverse occurrence - the partial collapse of a primary school - and the indicators related to the traumatic impact set off by the event, by soliciting the child's reminiscence of the catastrophic experience. One hundred trauma-exposed children were recruited from a Sicilian primary school and were administered the following research instruments: the Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC-A), to investigate the traumatized response that can be triggered in the children involved; the Brother as a Resource Questionnaire (BRQ), to delve into the perception of sibling relationship as a resource. The outcomes showed statistically significant negative correlations between the Anxiety scale of the TSCC-A and the Scaffolding factors (r = -.260, p < .05) and Decision making process (r = -.315, p < 05) of the BRQ; between the Depression scale and the Scaffolding factors (r = -.147, p < .05), Emotional sharing (r = -.168, p < .05) and Decision making process (r = -.281, p < .05). The Anger scale correlated negatively with the Emotional sharing (r = -187, p < .05), the Decision making process (r = -.182, p < .05) and the Scaffolding factors (r = -.279, p < .05); the Post-traumatic Stress correlated negatively with the Scaffolding factors (r = -.203, p < .05) and the Decision making process (r = -.238, p < .05). Lastly, the Dissociation correlated negatively with the Decision making process (r = -.270, p < .05).

Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, B. D.

1979-01-01

Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

PubMed

Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

2013-01-01

This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The availability of health information system for decision-making with evidence-based medicine approach-a case study: Kermanshah, Iran.

PubMed

Safari, Ameneh; Safari, Yahya

2018-08-01

Evidence-based medicine (EBM) is defining proper and wise use of the best evidence in clinical decision for patient׳s care. This study have done with the aim of evaluating health information system for decision-making with EBM approach in educational hospital of Kermanshah city. The statistical population include all the specialist and specialty, and also head nurses of educational hospitals in Kermanshah city. The data collected by researcher made questionnaire. The content validities of the questionnaire were confirmed by experts to complete the questions of the questionnaire. Then, the reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated using the Cronbach׳s alpha coefficient. The results have showed that the accessibility rate to the internet sources is in desirable level. The results have showed that there was a significant difference at least in one group between the availability of hospital information system EBM establishment in terms of accessing to the internet based data, according to the academic major ( P = 0.021 ). The sufficiency of hospital information system in evidence-based medicine establishment in terms of necessary knowledge for implementing it according to the educational major have showed a significant statistical difference at least in one group ( P = 0.001 ). Kermanshah׳s hospital have a desirable condition in terms of accessibility to the internet sources, knowledge of EBM and its implementation which this have showed the availability of desirable platform for decision-making with the EBM approach. However, it is better to implement regulate educational periods for educating the doctors and nurses in order to reach practical implementation of the EBM approach.

Setting Environmental Standards

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fishbein, Gershon

1975-01-01

Recent court decisions have pointed out the complexities involved in setting environmental standards. Environmental health is composed of multiple causative agents, most of which work over long periods of time. This makes the cause-and-effect relationship between health statistics and environmental contaminant exposures difficult to prove in…

Meta-analysis in evidence-based healthcare: a paradigm shift away from random effects is overdue.

PubMed

Doi, Suhail A R; Furuya-Kanamori, Luis; Thalib, Lukman; Barendregt, Jan J

2017-12-01

Each year up to 20 000 systematic reviews and meta-analyses are published whose results influence healthcare decisions, thus making the robustness and reliability of meta-analytic methods one of the world's top clinical and public health priorities. The evidence synthesis makes use of either fixed-effect or random-effects statistical methods. The fixed-effect method has largely been replaced by the random-effects method as heterogeneity of study effects led to poor error estimation. However, despite the widespread use and acceptance of the random-effects method to correct this, it too remains unsatisfactory and continues to suffer from defective error estimation, posing a serious threat to decision-making in evidence-based clinical and public health practice. We discuss here the problem with the random-effects approach and demonstrate that there exist better estimators under the fixed-effect model framework that can achieve optimal error estimation. We argue for an urgent return to the earlier framework with updates that address these problems and conclude that doing so can markedly improve the reliability of meta-analytical findings and thus decision-making in healthcare.

On Goal-Oriented, Hydrogeological Site Investigation: A Holistic Approach (Henry Darcy Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Yoram

2016-04-01

UQ (for Uncertainty Quantification) is a critical element of groundwater management and by extension, of hydrological site investigation. While it is clear that UQ is an important goal, there is ambiguity as to what the target of the UQ should be, and how to make UQ relevant in the context of public policy. Planning for UQ (meaning what measurements to take, where, how many, what frequency, etc.), one could consider environmental performance parameters (EPMs, such as concentrations or travel time) as the targets of site investigation. But there is a need to go beyond EPMs, and to consider the uncertainty related to impacts such as enhanced cancer-risk due to groundwater contamination or, more generally, to decisions facing regulators. In any case, UQ requires site investigation, and decision-makers, who end up paying for it, are not really interested in EPMs: they care about making operational decisions that are defensible legally and justified from the perspective of public good. The key to UQ, whether considering EPMS or operational decisions concerning the public good, is defining a suitable strategy for site investigation. There is a body of published works on relating site investigations with EPMs, but much less is known on how to support operational decisions with strategies for site characterization. In this lecture, I will address this issue and I will outline a comprehensive approach for addressing it using a statistical formalism that couples hypothesis testing with Bayesian statistics. I refer to this approach as goal-oriented site investigation. I will show how site investigation strategies, with specifics such as which measurements to take and where, could be related to goals lined with operational decisions. This includes (1) defining the relevant goals; (2) formulating hypotheses; (3) defining alternative strategies for site investigation and (4) evaluating them in terms of probabilities for making errors in accepting or rejecting the hypotheses.

Patient perceived participation in decision making on their antipsychotic treatment: Evidence of validity and reliability of the COMRADE scale in a sample of schizophrenia spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Pérez-Revuelta, José; Villagrán-Moreno, José María; Moreno-Sánchez, Luisa; Pascual-Paño, Juan Manuel; González-Saiz, Francisco

2018-03-23

The aim of this paper is to provide evidence of the validity and reliability of the COMRADE scale (Combined Outcome Measure for Risk communication And treatment Decision making Effectiveness) in patients suffering from schizophrenia spectrum disorders. 150 patients recruited at five mental health centers were assessed using a cross-sectional study design. The COMRADE, WAIS-S (therapeutic alliance) and TSQM (satisfaction with medication) scales were used. Exploratory Factor Analysis identified three factors from the COMRADE (F1: "Risk communication"; F2: "Confidence in decision" and F3: "Knowledge of decisional balance") which explain 45.2, 8.5 and 6% of the variance, respectively. Statistically significant correlations were observed between the scores of the COMRADE subscales with the subscales of the WAI-S and the TSQM. The internal consistency observed for each of the factorial scores of the COMRADE were (Cronbach's alpha values) 0.90, 0.89 and 0.74, respectively. The COMRADE scale offers appropriate psychometric properties for its use as a measure of perceived patient involvement in the shared decision making process in antipsychotic treatment. The use of the COMRADE measure in psychiatric clinical practice and in research studies provides an outcome measure of interventions from the shared decision making model. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the speed--accuracy trade-off effect on the capacity of information processing.

PubMed

Donkin, Chris; Little, Daniel R; Houpt, Joseph W

2014-06-01

The ability to trade accuracy for speed is fundamental to human decision making. The speed-accuracy trade-off (SAT) effect has received decades of study, and is well understood in relatively simple decisions: collecting more evidence before making a decision allows one to be more accurate but also slower. The SAT in more complex paradigms has been given less attention, largely due to limits in the models and statistics that can be applied to such tasks. Here, we have conducted the first analysis of the SAT in multiple signal processing, using recently developed technologies for measuring capacity that take into account both response time and choice probability. We show that the primary influence of caution in our redundant-target experiments is on the threshold amount of evidence required to trigger a response. However, in a departure from the usual SAT effect, we found that participants strategically ignored redundant information when they were forced to respond quickly, but only when the additional stimulus was reliably redundant. Interestingly, because the capacity of the system was severely limited on redundant-target trials, ignoring additional targets meant that processing was more efficient when making fast decisions than when making slow and accurate decisions, where participants' limited resources had to be divided between the 2 stimuli. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Prescription medicines: decision-making preferences of patients who receive different levels of public subsidy.

PubMed

Robertson, Jane; Doran, Evan; Henry, David A; Salkeld, Glenn

2014-02-01

To compare the relative importance of medicine attributes and decision-making preferences of patients with higher or lower levels of insurance coverage in a publicly funded health care system. Cross-sectional telephone survey of randomly selected regular medicine users aged ≥18 years in the Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia. Questions about 27 medicine attributes and active involvement in decisions to start a new medicine. After adjustment, there were few differences between the 408 concession card holders (high insurance) and 410 general beneficiaries (low insurance) in their assessment of the importance of medicine attributes. For both groups, the explanation of treatment options, establishing the need for the medicine, and medicine efficacy and safety were the most important considerations. Medicine costs, the treatment burden and medicine familiarity were less important; the views of family and friends ranked lowest. There was a statistically significantly greater influence of the regular doctor for the concession card holders than general beneficiaries (93.6 vs. 84%, adjusted OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.31, 5.99). Concession card holders were more likely to favour doctors having more say in the decision-making process (crude OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.28, 2.24), and more likely to report the most recent treatment decision being made by the doctor alone, compared with general beneficiaries (61.2 vs. 40.3%). Medicine need, efficacy and safety are viewed as paramount for most patients, irrespective of insurance status. While patients report the importance of participation in treatment decisions, delegation of decision making to the doctor was common in practice. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling the value for money of changing clinical practice change: a stochastic application in diabetes care.

PubMed

Hoomans, Ties; Abrams, Keith R; Ament, Andre J H A; Evers, Silvia M A A; Severens, Johan L

2009-10-01

Decision making about resource allocation for guideline implementation to change clinical practice is inevitably undertaken in a context of uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness of both clinical guidelines and implementation strategies. Adopting a total net benefit approach, a model was recently developed to overcome problems with the use of combined ratio statistics when analyzing decision uncertainty. To demonstrate the stochastic application of the model for informing decision making about the adoption of an audit and feedback strategy for implementing a guideline recommending intensive blood glucose control in type 2 diabetes in primary care in the Netherlands. An integrated Bayesian approach to decision modeling and evidence synthesis is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGs. Data on model parameters is gathered from various sources, with effectiveness of implementation being estimated using pooled, random-effects meta-analysis. Decision uncertainty is illustrated using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and frontier. Decisions about whether to adopt intensified glycemic control and whether to adopt audit and feedback alter for the maximum values that decision makers are willing to pay for health gain. Through simultaneously incorporating uncertain economic evidence on both guidance and implementation strategy, the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier show an increase in decision uncertainty concerning guideline implementation. The stochastic application in diabetes care demonstrates that the model provides a simple and useful tool for quantifying and exploring the (combined) uncertainty associated with decision making about adopting guidelines and implementation strategies and, therefore, for informing decisions about efficient resource allocation to change clinical practice.

Methodological challenges of validating a clinical decision-making tool in the practice environment.

PubMed

Brennan, Caitlin W; Daly, Barbara J

2015-04-01

Validating a measurement tool intended for use in the practice environment poses challenges that may not be present when validating a tool intended solely for research purposes. The aim of this article is to describe the methodological challenges of validating a clinical decision-making tool, the Oncology Acuity Tool, which nurses use to make nurse assignment and staffing decisions prospectively each shift. Data were derived from a larger validation study, during which several methodological challenges arose. Revisions to the tool, including conducting iterative feedback cycles with end users, were necessary before the validation study was initiated. The "true" value of patient acuity is unknown, and thus, two approaches to inter-rater reliability assessment were used. Discordant perspectives existed between experts and end users. Balancing psychometric rigor with clinical relevance may be achieved through establishing research-practice partnerships, seeking active and continuous feedback with end users, and weighing traditional statistical rules of thumb with practical considerations. © The Author(s) 2014.

REASONS AND CONSEQUENCES OF APPLIED LEADERSHIP STYLES IN ETHICAL DILEMMAS WHEN NURSE MANAGERS MAKE DECISIONS.

PubMed

Zydziunaite, V; Suominen, T

2014-09-21

Abstract Background: Understanding the reasons and consequences of leadership styles in ethical dilemmas is fundamental to exploring nurse managers' abilities to influence outcomes for patients and nursing personnel. Purpose: To explain the associations between different leadership styles, reasons for their application and its consequences when nurse managers make decisions in ethical dilemmas. Methods: The data were collected between 15 October 2011 and 30 April 2012 by statistically validated questionnaire. The respondents (n=278) were nurse managers. The data were analyzed using SPSS 20.0, calculating Spearman's correlations, the Stepwise Regression and ANOVA. Results: The reasons for applying different leadership styles in ethical dilemmas include personal characteristics, years in work position, institutional factors, and the professional authority of nurse managers. The applied leadership styles in ethical dilemmas are associated with the consequences regarding the satisfaction of patients', relatives' and nurse managers' needs. Conclusions: Nurse managers exhibited leadership styles oriented to maintenance, focusing more on the "doing the job" than on managing the decision-making in ethical dilemmas.

HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

PubMed

Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2018-02-01

Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS*

PubMed Central

Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

2018-01-01

Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior) PMID:29755141

Calculating Confidence, Uncertainty, and Numbers of Samples When Using Statistical Sampling Approaches to Characterize and Clear Contaminated Areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piepel, Gregory F.; Matzke, Brett D.; Sego, Landon H.

2013-04-27

This report discusses the methodology, formulas, and inputs needed to make characterization and clearance decisions for Bacillus anthracis-contaminated and uncontaminated (or decontaminated) areas using a statistical sampling approach. Specifically, the report includes the methods and formulas for calculating the • number of samples required to achieve a specified confidence in characterization and clearance decisions • confidence in making characterization and clearance decisions for a specified number of samples for two common statistically based environmental sampling approaches. In particular, the report addresses an issue raised by the Government Accountability Office by providing methods and formulas to calculate the confidence that amore » decision area is uncontaminated (or successfully decontaminated) if all samples collected according to a statistical sampling approach have negative results. Key to addressing this topic is the probability that an individual sample result is a false negative, which is commonly referred to as the false negative rate (FNR). The two statistical sampling approaches currently discussed in this report are 1) hotspot sampling to detect small isolated contaminated locations during the characterization phase, and 2) combined judgment and random (CJR) sampling during the clearance phase. Typically if contamination is widely distributed in a decision area, it will be detectable via judgment sampling during the characterization phrase. Hotspot sampling is appropriate for characterization situations where contamination is not widely distributed and may not be detected by judgment sampling. CJR sampling is appropriate during the clearance phase when it is desired to augment judgment samples with statistical (random) samples. The hotspot and CJR statistical sampling approaches are discussed in the report for four situations: 1. qualitative data (detect and non-detect) when the FNR = 0 or when using statistical sampling methods that account for FNR > 0 2. qualitative data when the FNR > 0 but statistical sampling methods are used that assume the FNR = 0 3. quantitative data (e.g., contaminant concentrations expressed as CFU/cm2) when the FNR = 0 or when using statistical sampling methods that account for FNR > 0 4. quantitative data when the FNR > 0 but statistical sampling methods are used that assume the FNR = 0. For Situation 2, the hotspot sampling approach provides for stating with Z% confidence that a hotspot of specified shape and size with detectable contamination will be found. Also for Situation 2, the CJR approach provides for stating with X% confidence that at least Y% of the decision area does not contain detectable contamination. Forms of these statements for the other three situations are discussed in Section 2.2. Statistical methods that account for FNR > 0 currently only exist for the hotspot sampling approach with qualitative data (or quantitative data converted to qualitative data). This report documents the current status of methods and formulas for the hotspot and CJR sampling approaches. Limitations of these methods are identified. Extensions of the methods that are applicable when FNR = 0 to account for FNR > 0, or to address other limitations, will be documented in future revisions of this report if future funding supports the development of such extensions. For quantitative data, this report also presents statistical methods and formulas for 1. quantifying the uncertainty in measured sample results 2. estimating the true surface concentration corresponding to a surface sample 3. quantifying the uncertainty of the estimate of the true surface concentration. All of the methods and formulas discussed in the report were applied to example situations to illustrate application of the methods and interpretation of the results.« less

Passing Decisions in Football: Introducing an Empirical Approach to Estimating the Effects of Perceptual Information and Associative Knowledge.

PubMed

Steiner, Silvan

2018-01-01

The importance of various information sources in decision-making in interactive team sports is debated. While some highlight the role of the perceptual information provided by the current game context, others point to the role of knowledge-based information that athletes have regarding their team environment. Recently, an integrative perspective considering the simultaneous involvement of both of these information sources in decision-making in interactive team sports has been presented. In a theoretical example concerning passing decisions, the simultaneous involvement of perceptual and knowledge-based information has been illustrated. However, no precast method of determining the contribution of these two information sources empirically has been provided. The aim of this article is to bridge this gap and present a statistical approach to estimating the effects of perceptual information and associative knowledge on passing decisions. To this end, a sample dataset of scenario-based passing decisions is analyzed. This article shows how the effects of perceivable team positionings and athletes' knowledge about their fellow team members on passing decisions can be estimated. Ways of transfering this approach to real-world situations and implications for future research using more representative designs are presented.

Passing Decisions in Football: Introducing an Empirical Approach to Estimating the Effects of Perceptual Information and Associative Knowledge

PubMed Central

Steiner, Silvan

2018-01-01

The importance of various information sources in decision-making in interactive team sports is debated. While some highlight the role of the perceptual information provided by the current game context, others point to the role of knowledge-based information that athletes have regarding their team environment. Recently, an integrative perspective considering the simultaneous involvement of both of these information sources in decision-making in interactive team sports has been presented. In a theoretical example concerning passing decisions, the simultaneous involvement of perceptual and knowledge-based information has been illustrated. However, no precast method of determining the contribution of these two information sources empirically has been provided. The aim of this article is to bridge this gap and present a statistical approach to estimating the effects of perceptual information and associative knowledge on passing decisions. To this end, a sample dataset of scenario-based passing decisions is analyzed. This article shows how the effects of perceivable team positionings and athletes' knowledge about their fellow team members on passing decisions can be estimated. Ways of transfering this approach to real-world situations and implications for future research using more representative designs are presented. PMID:29623057

Creating Multi Objective Value Functions from Non-Independent Values

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-03-01

1998) or oil companies trying to capitalize on the increasing flood of available data and statistics ( Coopersmith , Dean, McVean, & Storaune, 2001...Clemen, R. T., & Reilly, T. (2001). Making Hard Decisions. Pacific Grove: Duxbury. Coopersmith , E., Dean, G., McVean, J., & Storaune, E. (2001

Australian Curriculum Linked Lessons: Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Day, Lorraine

2014-01-01

Students recognise and analyse data and draw inferences. They represent, summarise and interpret data and undertake purposeful investigations involving the collection and interpretation of data… They develop an increasingly sophisticated ability to critically evaluate chance and data concepts and make reasoned judgments and decisions, as well as…

How Much Do M&M's Weigh?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Froelich, Amy G.; Stephenson, W. Robert

2013-01-01

This article presents activities appropriate for the first half of a general introductory statistics course. All activities revolve around the same data set collected early in the course. The activities require students to make decisions about how they should proceed. (Contains 2 tables and 5 figures.)

eSACP - a new Nordic initiative towards developing statistical climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis; Thejll, Peter; Drews, Martin; Guttorp, Peter; Venälainen, Ari; Uotila, Petteri; Benestad, Rasmus; Mesquita, Michel d. S.; Madsen, Henrik; Fox Maule, Cathrine

2015-04-01

The Nordic research council NordForsk has recently announced its support for a new 3-year research initiative on "statistical analysis of climate projections" (eSACP). eSACP will focus on developing e-science tools and services based on statistical analysis of climate projections for the purpose of helping decision-makers and planners in the face of expected future challenges in regional climate change. The motivation behind the project is the growing recognition in our society that forecasts of future climate change is associated with various sources of uncertainty, and that any long-term planning and decision-making dependent on a changing climate must account for this. At the same time there is an obvious gap between scientists from different fields and between practitioners in terms of understanding how climate information relates to different parts of the "uncertainty cascade". In eSACP we will develop generic e-science tools and statistical climate services to facilitate the use of climate projections by decision-makers and scientists from all fields for climate impact analyses and for the development of robust adaptation strategies, which properly (in a statistical sense) account for the inherent uncertainty. The new tool will be publically available and include functionality to utilize the extensive and dynamically growing repositories of data and use state-of-the-art statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty and innovative approaches to visualize the results. Such a tool will not only be valuable for future assessments and underpin the development of dedicated climate services, but will also assist the scientific community in making more clearly its case on the consequences of our changing climate to policy makers and the general public. The eSACP project is led by Thordis Thorarinsdottir, Norwegian Computing Center, and also includes the Finnish Meteorological Institute, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, the Technical University of Denmark and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway. This poster will present details of focus areas in the project and show some examples of the expected analysis tools.

Bayesian Bigot? Statistical Discrimination, Stereotypes, and Employer Decision Making

PubMed Central

Pager, Devah; Karafin, Diana

2010-01-01

Much of the debate over the underlying causes of discrimination centers on the rationality of employer decision making. Economic models of statistical discrimination emphasize the cognitive utility of group estimates as a means of dealing with the problems of uncertainty. Sociological and social-psychological models, by contrast, question the accuracy of group-level attributions. Although mean differences may exist between groups on productivity-related characteristics, these differences are often inflated in their application, leading to much larger differences in individual evaluations than would be warranted by actual group-level trait distributions. In this study, the authors examine the nature of employer attitudes about black and white workers and the extent to which these views are calibrated against their direct experiences with workers from each group. They use data from fifty-five in-depth interviews with hiring managers to explore employers’ group-level attributions and their direct observations to develop a model of attitude formation and employer learning. PMID:20686633

Policy-Led Comparative Environmental Risk Assessment of Genetically Modified Crops: Testing for Increased Risk Rather Than Profiling Phenotypes Leads to Predictable and Transparent Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Raybould, Alan; Macdonald, Phil

2018-01-01

We describe two contrasting methods of comparative environmental risk assessment for genetically modified (GM) crops. Both are science-based, in the sense that they use science to help make decisions, but they differ in the relationship between science and policy. Policy-led comparative risk assessment begins by defining what would be regarded as unacceptable changes when the use a particular GM crop replaces an accepted use of another crop. Hypotheses that these changes will not occur are tested using existing or new data, and corroboration or falsification of the hypotheses is used to inform decision-making. Science-led comparative risk assessment, on the other hand, tends to test null hypotheses of no difference between a GM crop and a comparator. The variables that are compared may have little or no relevance to any previously stated policy objective and hence decision-making tends to be ad hoc in response to possibly spurious statistical significance. We argue that policy-led comparative risk assessment is the far more effective method. With this in mind, we caution that phenotypic profiling of GM crops, particularly with omics methods, is potentially detrimental to risk assessment. PMID:29755975

An extreme events laboratory to provide network centric collaborative situation assessment and decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panulla, Brian J.; More, Loretta D.; Shumaker, Wade R.; Jones, Michael D.; Hooper, Robert; Vernon, Jeffrey M.; Aungst, Stanley G.

2009-05-01

Rapid improvements in communications infrastructure and sophistication of commercial hand-held devices provide a major new source of information for assessing extreme situations such as environmental crises. In particular, ad hoc collections of humans can act as "soft sensors" to augment data collected by traditional sensors in a net-centric environment (in effect, "crowd-sourcing" observational data). A need exists to understand how to task such soft sensors, characterize their performance and fuse the data with traditional data sources. In order to quantitatively study such situations, as well as study distributed decision-making, we have developed an Extreme Events Laboratory (EEL) at The Pennsylvania State University. This facility provides a network-centric, collaborative situation assessment and decision-making capability by supporting experiments involving human observers, distributed decision making and cognition, and crisis management. The EEL spans the information chain from energy detection via sensors, human observations, signal and image processing, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, multi-sensor data fusion, visualization and analytics, and modeling and simulation. The EEL command center combines COTS and custom collaboration tools in innovative ways, providing capabilities such as geo-spatial visualization and dynamic mash-ups of multiple data sources. This paper describes the EEL and several on-going human-in-the-loop experiments aimed at understanding the new collective observation and analysis landscape.

Ignorance is not bliss: Statistical power is not probability of trial success.

PubMed

Zierhut, M L; Bycott, P; Gibbs, M A; Smith, B P; Vicini, P

2016-04-01

The purpose of this commentary is to place probability of trial success, or assurance, in the context of decision making in drug development, and to illustrate its properties in an intuitive manner for the readers of Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics. The hope is that this will stimulate a dialog on how assurance should be incorporated into a quantitative decision approach for clinical development and trial design that uses all available information. © 2015 ASCPT.

A social discounting model based on Tsallis’ statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Taiki

2010-09-01

Social decision making (e.g. social discounting and social preferences) has been attracting attention in economics, econophysics, social physics, behavioral psychology, and neuroeconomics. This paper proposes a novel social discounting model based on the deformed algebra developed in the Tsallis’ non-extensive thermostatistics. Furthermore, it is suggested that this model can be utilized to quantify the degree of consistency in social discounting in humans and analyze the relationships between behavioral tendencies in social discounting and other-regarding economic decision making under game-theoretic conditions. Future directions in the application of the model to studies in econophysics, neuroeconomics, and social physics, as well as real-world problems such as the supply of live organ donations, are discussed.

Empirically-derived Knowledge on Adolescent Assent to Pediatric Biomedical Research

PubMed Central

Brody, Janet L.; Annett, Robert D.; Turner, Charles; Dalen, Jeanne; Yoon, Yesel

2013-01-01

Background There has been a recent growth in empirical research on assent with pediatric populations, due in part, to the demand for increased participation of this population in biomedical research. Despite methodological limitations, studies of adolescent capacities to assent have advanced and identified a number of salient psychological and social variables that are key to understanding assent. Methods The authors review a subsection of the empirical literature on adolescent assent focusing primarily on asthma and cancer therapeutic research; adolescent competencies to assent to these studies; perceptions of protocol risk and benefit; the affects of various social context variables on adolescent research participation decision making; and the inter-relatedness of these psychological and social factors. Results Contemporary studies of assent, using multivariate methods and updated approaches to statistical modeling, have revealed the importance of studying the intercorrelation between adolescents’ psychological capacities and their ability to employ these capacities in family and medical decision-making contexts. Understanding these dynamic relationships will enable researchers and ethicists to develop assent procedures that respect the authority of parents, while at the same time accord adolescents appropriate decision-making autonomy. Conclusions Reviews of empirical literature on the assent process reveal that adolescents possess varying capacities for biomedical research participation decision making depending on their maturity and the social context in which the decision is made. The relationship between adolescents and physician-investigators can be used to attenuate concerns about research protocols and clarify risk and benefit information so adolescents, in concert with their families, can make the most informed and ethical decisions. Future assent researchers will be better able to navigate the complicated interplay of contextual and developmental factors and develop the empirical bases for research enrollment protocols that will support increased involvement of adolescents in biomedical research. PMID:23914304

The influence of narrative v. statistical information on perceiving vaccination risks.

PubMed

Betsch, Cornelia; Ulshöfer, Corina; Renkewitz, Frank; Betsch, Tilmann

2011-01-01

Health-related information found on the Internet is increasing and impacts patient decision making, e.g. regarding vaccination decisions. In addition to statistical information (e.g. incidence rates of vaccine adverse events), narrative information is also widely available such as postings on online bulletin boards. Previous research has shown that narrative information can impact treatment decisions, even when statistical information is presented concurrently. As the determinants of this effect are largely unknown, we will vary features of the narratives to identify mechanisms through which narratives impact risk judgments. An online bulletin board setting provided participants with statistical information and authentic narratives about the occurrence and nonoccurrence of adverse events. Experiment 1 followed a single factorial design with 1, 2, or 4 narratives out of 10 reporting adverse events. Experiment 2 implemented a 2 (statistical risk 20% vs. 40%) × 2 (2/10 vs. 4/10 narratives reporting adverse events) × 2 (high vs. low richness) × 2 (high vs. low emotionality) between-subjects design. Dependent variables were perceived risk of side-effects and vaccination intentions. Experiment 1 shows an inverse relation between the number of narratives reporting adverse-events and vaccination intentions, which was mediated by the perceived risk of vaccinating. Experiment 2 showed a stronger influence of the number of narratives than of the statistical risk information. High (vs. low) emotional narratives had a greater impact on the perceived risk, while richness had no effect. The number of narratives influences risk judgments can potentially override statistical information about risk.

Affordability and cost-effectiveness: decision-making on the cost-effectiveness plane.

PubMed

Sendi, P P; Briggs, A H

2001-10-01

Much recent research interest has focused on handling uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis and in particular the calculation of confidence intervals for incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Problems of interpretation when ICERs are negative have led to two important and related developments: the use of the net-benefit statistic and the presentation of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analysis using acceptability curves. However, neither of these developments directly addresses the problem that decision-makers are constrained by a fixed-budget and may not be able to fund new, more expensive interventions, even if they have been shown to represent good value for money. In response to this limitation, the authors introduce the 'affordability curve' which reflects the probability that a programme is affordable for a wide range of threshold budgets. The authors argue that the joint probability an intervention is affordable and cost-effective is more useful for decision-making since it captures both dimensions of the decision problem faced by those responsible for health service budgets. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Incomplete and inconsistent information provided to men making decisions for treatment of early-stage prostate cancer.

PubMed

Snow, Stephanie L; Panton, Rachel L; Butler, Lorna J; Wilke, Derek R; Rutledge, Robert D H; Bell, David G; Rendon, Ricardo A

2007-05-01

To determine whether there is a gap between what patients know about early-stage prostate cancer and what they need to know to make treatment decisions, and whether the information patients receive varies depending on their treating physician. Needs assessment was performed using a questionnaire consisting of 41 statements about early-stage prostate cancer. Statements were divided into six thematic subsets. Participants used a 5-point Likert scale to rate statements in terms of knowledge of the information and importance to a treatment decision. Information gaps were defined as significant difference between the importance and knowledge of an item. Descriptive statistics were used to describe demographic subscale scores. The information gap was analyzed by a paired t test for each thematic subset. One-way analyses of variance were used to detect any differences on the basis of treating physician. Questionnaires were distributed to 270 men (135 treated by radical prostatectomy, 135 by external beam radiotherapy). The return rate was 51% (138 questionnaires). A statistically significant information gap was found among all six thematic subsets, with five of the six P values less than 0.0001. Statistically significant variation was observed in the amount of information patients received from their treating physicians among four of the thematic subsets. There is an information gap between what early-stage prostate cancer patients need to know and the information they receive. Additionally there is a difference in the amount of information provided by different physicians.

76 FR 67403 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-01

..., making business decisions, developing economic models and forecasts, conducting economic research, and... of information under the provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. chapter 35). Agency: U.... Economic census statistics serve as part of the framework for the national accounts and provide essential...

Towards efficient multi-scale methods for monitoring sugarcane aphid infestations in sorghum

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

We discuss approaches and issues involved with developing optimal monitoring methods for sugarcane aphid infestations (SCA) in grain sorghum. We discuss development of sequential sampling methods that allow for estimation of the number of aphids per sample unit, and statistical decision making rela...

Intuition in Business: Empirical Base

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fomin, Eugeniy P.; Alekseev, Andrey A.; Fomina, Natalia E.; Rensh, Marina A.; Zaitseva, Ekaterina V.

2016-01-01

In this article, the authors propose economic projection of the views of Daniel Kahneman on intuition. The authors believe intuition to act as an operative category in entrepreneurship. The results of given statistical experiment prove viability of the phenomenon of intuition when making investment decisions. Two independent mechanisms for…

Linking Performance Measures to Resource Allocation: Exploring Unmapped Terrain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewell, Peter T.

1999-01-01

Examination of how (and whether) particular types of institutional performance measures can be beneficially used in making resource allocation decisions finds that only easily verifiable "hard" statistics should be used in classic performance funding approaches, although surveys and the use of good practices by institutions may…

Evidence and Education Policy--Some Reflections and Allegations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldstein, Harvey

2008-01-01

The paper reflects on the use by the UK central government of statistical evidence in educational policy matters. Particular attention is given to school league tables. The paper is generally critical of government attitudes, but suggests that progress towards rational decision-making does occur. (Contains 5 notes.)

Assessing electronic health record systems in emergency departments: Using a decision analytic Bayesian model.

PubMed

Ben-Assuli, Ofir; Leshno, Moshe

2016-09-01

In the last decade, health providers have implemented information systems to improve accuracy in medical diagnosis and decision-making. This article evaluates the impact of an electronic health record on emergency department physicians' diagnosis and admission decisions. A decision analytic approach using a decision tree was constructed to model the admission decision process to assess the added value of medical information retrieved from the electronic health record. Using a Bayesian statistical model, this method was evaluated on two coronary artery disease scenarios. The results show that the cases of coronary artery disease were better diagnosed when the electronic health record was consulted and led to more informed admission decisions. Furthermore, the value of medical information required for a specific admission decision in emergency departments could be quantified. The findings support the notion that physicians and patient healthcare can benefit from implementing electronic health record systems in emergency departments. © The Author(s) 2015.

Health sector decentralization and local decision-making: Decision space, institutional capacities and accountability in Pakistan.

PubMed

Bossert, Thomas John; Mitchell, Andrew David

2011-01-01

Health sector decentralization has been widely adopted to improve delivery of health services. While many argue that institutional capacities and mechanisms of accountability required to transform decentralized decision-making into improvements in local health systems are lacking, few empirical studies exist which measure or relate together these concepts. Based on research instruments administered to a sample of 91 health sector decision-makers in 17 districts of Pakistan, this study analyzes relationships between three dimensions of decentralization: decentralized authority (referred to as "decision space"), institutional capacities, and accountability to local officials. Composite quantitative indicators of these three dimensions were constructed within four broad health functions (strategic and operational planning, budgeting, human resources management, and service organization/delivery) and on an overall/cross-function basis. Three main findings emerged. First, district-level respondents report varying degrees of each dimension despite being under a single decentralization regime and facing similar rules across provinces. Second, within dimensions of decentralization-particularly decision space and capacities-synergies exist between levels reported by respondents in one function and those reported in other functions (statistically significant coefficients of correlation ranging from ρ=0.22 to ρ=0.43). Third, synergies exist across dimensions of decentralization, particularly in terms of an overall indicator of institutional capacities (significantly correlated with both overall decision space (ρ=0.39) and accountability (ρ=0.23)). This study demonstrates that decentralization is a varied experience-with some district-level officials making greater use of decision space than others and that those who do so also tend to have more capacity to make decisions and are held more accountable to elected local officials for such choices. These findings suggest that Pakistan's decentralization policy should focus on synergies among dimensions of decentralization to encouraging more use of de jure decision space, work toward more uniform institutional capacity, and encourage greater accountability to local elected officials. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Placement decisions and disparities among aboriginal groups: an application of the decision making ecology through multi-level analysis.

PubMed

Fluke, John D; Chabot, Martin; Fallon, Barbara; MacLaurin, Bruce; Blackstock, Cindy

2010-01-01

This paper examined the relative influence of clinical and organizational characteristics on the decision to place a child in out-of-home care at the conclusion of a child maltreatment investigation. It tested the hypothesis that extraneous factors, specifically, organizational characteristics, impact the decision to place a child in out-of-home care. A secondary aim was to identify possible decision making influences related to disparities in placement decisions tied to Aboriginal children. Research suggests that the Aboriginal status of the child and structural risk factors affecting the family, such as poverty and poor housing, substantially account for this overrepresentation. The decision to place a child in out-of-home care was examined using data from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect. This child welfare dataset collected information about the results of nearly 5,000 child maltreatment investigations as well as a description of the characteristics of the workers and organization responsible for conducting those investigations. Multi-level statistical models were developed using MPlus software, which can accommodate dichotomous outcome variables, which are more reflective of decision making in child welfare. MPlus allows the specific case of the logistic link function for binary outcome variables under maximum likelihood estimation. Final models revealed the importance of the number of Aboriginal reports to an organization as a key second level predictor of the placement decision. It is the only second level factor that remains in the final model. This finding was very stable when tested over several different levels of proportionate caseload representation ranging from greater than 50% to 20% of the caseload. Disparities among Aboriginal children in child welfare decision making were identified at the agency level. The study provides additional evidence supporting the possibility that one source of overrepresentation of Aboriginal children in the Canadian foster care system is a lack of appropriate resources at the agency or community level. Copyright (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice.

PubMed

Powell, Derek; Yu, Jingqi; DeWolf, Melissa; Holyoak, Keith J

2017-10-01

Social learning-the ability to learn from observing the decisions of other people and the outcomes of those decisions-is fundamental to human evolutionary and cultural success. The Internet now provides social evidence on an unprecedented scale. However, properly utilizing this evidence requires a capacity for statistical inference. We examined how people's interpretation of online review scores is influenced by the numbers of reviews-a potential indicator both of an item's popularity and of the precision of the average review score. Our task was designed to pit statistical information against social information. We modeled the behavior of an "intuitive statistician" using empirical prior information from millions of reviews posted on Amazon.com and then compared the model's predictions with the behavior of experimental participants. Under certain conditions, people preferred a product with more reviews to one with fewer reviews even though the statistical model indicated that the latter was likely to be of higher quality than the former. Overall, participants' judgments suggested that they failed to make meaningful statistical inferences.

A qualitative study on a decision aid for breast cancer screening: Views from women and health professionals.

PubMed

Toledo-Chávarri, A; Rué, M; Codern-Bové, N; Carles-Lavila, M; Perestelo-Pérez, L; Pérez-Lacasta, M J; Feijoo-Cid, M

2017-05-01

This qualitative study evaluates a decision aid that includes the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening and analyses women's perception of the information received and healthcare professionals' perceptions of the convenience of providing it. Seven focus groups of women aged 40-69 years (n = 39) and two groups of healthcare professionals (n = 23) were conducted in Catalonia and the Canary Islands. The focus groups consisted of guided discussions regarding decision-making about breast cancer screening, and acceptability and feasibility of the decision aid. A content analysis was performed. Women positively value receiving information regarding the benefits and harms of breast cancer screening. Several women had difficulties understanding some concepts, especially those regarding overdiagnosis. Women preferred to share the decisions on screening with healthcare professionals. The professionals noted the lack of inclusion of some harms and benefits in the decision aid, and proposed improving the clarity of the statistical information. The information on overdiagnosis generates confusion among women and controversy among professionals. Faced with the new information presented by the decision aid, the majority of women prefer shared decision-making; however, its feasibility might be limited by a lack of knowledge and attitudes of rejection from healthcare professionals. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Outlier Responses Reflect Sensitivity to Statistical Structure in the Human Brain

PubMed Central

Garrido, Marta I.

2013-01-01

We constantly look for patterns in the environment that allow us to learn its key regularities. These regularities are fundamental in enabling us to make predictions about what is likely to happen next. The physiological study of regularity extraction has focused primarily on repetitive sequence-based rules within the sensory environment, or on stimulus-outcome associations in the context of reward-based decision-making. Here we ask whether we implicitly encode non-sequential stochastic regularities, and detect violations therein. We addressed this question using a novel experimental design and both behavioural and magnetoencephalographic (MEG) metrics associated with responses to pure-tone sounds with frequencies sampled from a Gaussian distribution. We observed that sounds in the tail of the distribution evoked a larger response than those that fell at the centre. This response resembled the mismatch negativity (MMN) evoked by surprising or unlikely events in traditional oddball paradigms. Crucially, responses to physically identical outliers were greater when the distribution was narrower. These results show that humans implicitly keep track of the uncertainty induced by apparently random distributions of sensory events. Source reconstruction suggested that the statistical-context-sensitive responses arose in a temporo-parietal network, areas that have been associated with attention orientation to unexpected events. Our results demonstrate a very early neurophysiological marker of the brain's ability to implicitly encode complex statistical structure in the environment. We suggest that this sensitivity provides a computational basis for our ability to make perceptual inferences in noisy environments and to make decisions in an uncertain world. PMID:23555230

Response time distributions in rapid chess: a large-scale decision making experiment.

PubMed

Sigman, Mariano; Etchemendy, Pablo; Slezak, Diego Fernández; Cecchi, Guillermo A

2010-01-01

Rapid chess provides an unparalleled laboratory to understand decision making in a natural environment. In a chess game, players choose consecutively around 40 moves in a finite time budget. The goodness of each choice can be determined quantitatively since current chess algorithms estimate precisely the value of a position. Web-based chess produces vast amounts of data, millions of decisions per day, incommensurable with traditional psychological experiments. We generated a database of response times (RTs) and position value in rapid chess games. We measured robust emergent statistical observables: (1) RT distributions are long-tailed and show qualitatively distinct forms at different stages of the game, (2) RT of successive moves are highly correlated both for intra- and inter-player moves. These findings have theoretical implications since they deny two basic assumptions of sequential decision making algorithms: RTs are not stationary and can not be generated by a state-function. Our results also have practical implications. First, we characterized the capacity of blunders and score fluctuations to predict a player strength, which is yet an open problem in chess softwares. Second, we show that the winning likelihood can be reliably estimated from a weighted combination of remaining times and position evaluation.

How Anxiety Leads to Suboptimal Decisions Under Risky Choice Situations.

PubMed

Yang, Zhiyong; Saini, Ritesh; Freling, Traci

2015-10-01

The current research proposes that situationally activated anxiety--whether incidental or integral-impairs decision making. In particular, we theorize that anxiety drives decisionmakers to more heavily emphasize subjective anecdotal information in their decision making, at the expense of more factual statistical information--a deleterious heuristic called the anecdotal bias. Four studies provide consistent support for this assertion. Studies 1A and 1B feature field experiments that demonstrate the role of incidental anxiety in enhancing the anecdotal bias in a choice context. Study 2 builds on these findings, manipulating individuals' incidental anxiety and showing how this affects the anecdotal bias in the context of message evaluations. Study 2 also provides direct evidence that only high-arousal negative emotions such as anxiety/worry enhance the anecdotal bias, not just any negative emotion (e.g., sadness). While the first three studies examine how incidental anxiety impacts choice, the last study demonstrates the effect of integral anxiety on decision making, manipulating anxiety by intensifying participants' perceived risk. Our results show that--consistent with findings from our first three studies--the anecdotal bias is enhanced when anxiety is heightened by individuals' perception of risk. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Response Time Distributions in Rapid Chess: A Large-Scale Decision Making Experiment

PubMed Central

Sigman, Mariano; Etchemendy, Pablo; Slezak, Diego Fernández; Cecchi, Guillermo A.

2010-01-01

Rapid chess provides an unparalleled laboratory to understand decision making in a natural environment. In a chess game, players choose consecutively around 40 moves in a finite time budget. The goodness of each choice can be determined quantitatively since current chess algorithms estimate precisely the value of a position. Web-based chess produces vast amounts of data, millions of decisions per day, incommensurable with traditional psychological experiments. We generated a database of response times (RTs) and position value in rapid chess games. We measured robust emergent statistical observables: (1) RT distributions are long-tailed and show qualitatively distinct forms at different stages of the game, (2) RT of successive moves are highly correlated both for intra- and inter-player moves. These findings have theoretical implications since they deny two basic assumptions of sequential decision making algorithms: RTs are not stationary and can not be generated by a state-function. Our results also have practical implications. First, we characterized the capacity of blunders and score fluctuations to predict a player strength, which is yet an open problem in chess softwares. Second, we show that the winning likelihood can be reliably estimated from a weighted combination of remaining times and position evaluation. PMID:21031032

Assessments of the extent to which health-care providers involve patients in decision making: a systematic review of studies using the OPTION instrument.

PubMed

Couët, Nicolas; Desroches, Sophie; Robitaille, Hubert; Vaillancourt, Hugues; Leblanc, Annie; Turcotte, Stéphane; Elwyn, Glyn; Légaré, France

2015-08-01

We have no clear overview of the extent to which health-care providers involve patients in the decision-making process during consultations. The Observing Patient Involvement in Decision Making instrument (OPTION) was designed to assess this. To systematically review studies that used the OPTION instrument to observe the extent to which health-care providers involve patients in decision making across a range of clinical contexts, including different health professions and lengths of consultation. We conducted online literature searches in multiple databases (2001-12) and gathered further data through networking. (i) OPTION scores as reported outcomes and (ii) health-care providers and patients as study participants. For analysis, we only included studies using the revised scale. Extracted data included: (i) study and participant characteristics and (ii) OPTION outcomes (scores, statistical associations and reported psychometric results). We also assessed the quality of OPTION outcomes reporting. We found 33 eligible studies, 29 of which used the revised scale. Overall, we found low levels of patient-involving behaviours: in cases where no intervention was used to implement shared decision making (SDM), the mean OPTION score was 23 ± 14 (0-100 scale). When assessed, the variables most consistently associated with higher OPTION scores were interventions to implement SDM (n = 8/9) and duration of consultations (n = 8/15). Whatever the clinical context, few health-care providers consistently attempt to facilitate patient involvement, and even fewer adjust care to patient preferences. However, both SDM interventions and longer consultations could improve this. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Drug Reimbursement Decision-Making System in Iran.

PubMed

Ansaripour, Amir; Uyl-de Groot, Carin A; Steenhoek, Adri; Redekop, William K

2014-05-01

Previous studies of health policies in Iran have not focused exclusively on the drug reimbursement process. The aim of this study was to describe the entire drug reimbursement process and the stakeholders, and discuss issues faced by policymakers. Review of documents describing the administrative rules and directives of stakeholders, supplemented by published statistics and interviews with experts and policymakers. Iran has a systematic process for the assessment, appraisal, and judgment of drug reimbursements. The two most important organizations in this process are the Food and Drug Organization, which considers clinical effectiveness, safety, and economic issues, and the Supreme Council of Health Insurance, which considers various criteria, including budget impact and cost-effectiveness. Ultimately, the Iranian Cabinet approves a drug and recommends its use to all health insurance organizations. Reimbursed drugs account for about 53.5% of all available drugs and 77.3% of drug expenditures. Despite its strengths, the system faces various issues, including conflicting stakeholder aims, lengthy decision-making duration, limited access to decision-making details, and rigidity in the assessment process. The Iranian drug reimbursement system uses decision-making criteria and a structured approach similar to those in other countries. Important shortcomings in the system include out-of-pocket contributions due to lengthy decision making, lack of transparency, and conflicting interests among stakeholders. Iranian policymakers should consider a number of ways to remedy these problems, such as case studies of individual drugs and closer examination of experiences in other countries. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty quantification in downscaling procedures for effective decisions in energy systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Constantinescu, E. M.

2010-12-01

Weather is a major driver both of energy supply and demand, and with the massive adoption of renewable energy sources and changing economic and producer-consumer paradigms, the management of the next-generation energy systems is becoming ever more challenging. The operational and planning decisions in energy systems are guided by efficiency and reliability, and therefore a central role in these decisions will be played by the ability to obtain weather condition forecasts with accurate uncertainty estimates. The appropriate temporal and spatial resolutions needed for effective decision-making, be it operational or planning, is not clear. It is arguably certain however, that such temporal scales as hourly variations of temperature or wind conditions and ramp events are essential in this process. Planning activities involve decade or decades-long projections of weather. One sensible way to achieve this is to embed regional weather models in a global climate system. This strategy acts as a downscaling procedure. Uncertainty modeling techniques must be developed in order to quantify and minimize forecast errors as well as target variables that impact the decision-making process the most. We discuss the challenges of obtaining a realistic uncertainty quantification estimate using mathematical algorithms based on scalable matrix-free computations and physics-based statistical models. The process of making decisions for energy management systems based on future weather scenarios is a very complex problem. We shall focus on the challenges in generating wind power predictions based on regional weather predictions, and discuss the implications of making the common assumptions about the uncertainty models.

Judging Statistical Models of Individual Decision Making under Risk Using In- and Out-of-Sample Criteria

PubMed Central

Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Lusk, Jayson L.

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample. PMID:25029467

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

PubMed

Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Implicit Statistical Learning in Real-World Environments Leads to Ecologically Rational Decision Making.

PubMed

Perkovic, Sonja; Orquin, Jacob Lund

2018-01-01

Ecological rationality results from matching decision strategies to appropriate environmental structures, but how does the matching happen? We propose that people learn the statistical structure of the environment through observation and use this learned structure to guide ecologically rational behavior. We tested this hypothesis in the context of organic foods. In Study 1, we found that products from healthful food categories are more likely to be organic than products from nonhealthful food categories. In Study 2, we found that consumers' perceptions of the healthfulness and prevalence of organic products in many food categories are accurate. Finally, in Study 3, we found that people perceive organic products as more healthful than nonorganic products when the statistical structure justifies this inference. Our findings suggest that people believe organic foods are more healthful than nonorganic foods and use an organic-food cue to guide their behavior because organic foods are, on average, 30% more healthful.

A study on building data warehouse of hospital information system.

PubMed

Li, Ping; Wu, Tao; Chen, Mu; Zhou, Bin; Xu, Wei-guo

2011-08-01

Existing hospital information systems with simple statistical functions cannot meet current management needs. It is well known that hospital resources are distributed with private property rights among hospitals, such as in the case of the regional coordination of medical services. In this study, to integrate and make full use of medical data effectively, we propose a data warehouse modeling method for the hospital information system. The method can also be employed for a distributed-hospital medical service system. To ensure that hospital information supports the diverse needs of health care, the framework of the hospital information system has three layers: datacenter layer, system-function layer, and user-interface layer. This paper discusses the role of a data warehouse management system in handling hospital information from the establishment of the data theme to the design of a data model to the establishment of a data warehouse. Online analytical processing tools assist user-friendly multidimensional analysis from a number of different angles to extract the required data and information. Use of the data warehouse improves online analytical processing and mitigates deficiencies in the decision support system. The hospital information system based on a data warehouse effectively employs statistical analysis and data mining technology to handle massive quantities of historical data, and summarizes from clinical and hospital information for decision making. This paper proposes the use of a data warehouse for a hospital information system, specifically a data warehouse for the theme of hospital information to determine latitude, modeling and so on. The processing of patient information is given as an example that demonstrates the usefulness of this method in the case of hospital information management. Data warehouse technology is an evolving technology, and more and more decision support information extracted by data mining and with decision-making technology is required for further research.

Understanding medical group financial and operational performance: the synergistic effect of linking statistical process control and profit and loss.

PubMed

Smolko, J R; Greisler, D S

2001-01-01

There is ongoing pressure for medical groups owned by not-for-profit health care systems or for-profit entrepreneurs to generate profit. The fading promise of superior strategy through health care integration has boards of directors clamoring for bottom-line performance. While prudent, sole focus on the bottom line through the lens of the profit-and-loss (P&L) statement provides incomplete information upon which to base executive decisions. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that placing statistical process control (SPC) charts in tandem with the P&L statement provides a more complete picture of medical group performance thereby optimizing decision making as executives deal with the whitewater issues surrounding physician practice ownership.

Factors affecting aggression in South Korean middle school students.

PubMed

Park, MiJeong; Choi, Jihea; Lim, Seung-Joo

2014-12-01

The study was undertaken to assess levels of aggression, and to determine factors affecting aggression among South Korean middle school students. A descriptive study was conducted using self-report questionnaires. The participants were 340 girls and boys from two middle schools and 302 questionnaires were used for the final data analysis. Aggression, academic stress, depression, self esteem, decision-making competency, and happiness were measured. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics including t tests, one-way analysis of variance, Pearson's correlation coefficients and multiple regressions. Aggression had significant correlations with academic stress (r = .21, p < .001), depression (r = .43, p < .001), self esteem (r = -.25, p < .001), decision-making competency (r = -.25, p < .001), and happiness (r = -.21, p < .001). Mean score for aggression was 2.49 out of 5. Significant explanatory variables for aggression were grade (t = 4.39, p < .001), academic stress (t = 2.78, p = .006), and depression (t = 5.03, p < .001). The explanatory power of these factors was 26.9%, and this was statistically significant (F = 16.06, p < .001). Findings indicate that depression, academic stress, and grade (second grade) influence aggression. To decrease aggressive behavior, it is necessary to provide systematic and political programs in schools and local communities that can ameliorate negative emotional factors like depression and academic stress. Additionally, development of positive factors such as self esteem, decision-making skills, and happiness in middle school students is important to reduce aggression. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Economic evaluations of health technologies in Dutch healthcare decision-making: a qualitative study of the current and potential use, barriers, and facilitators.

PubMed

Roseboom, Kitty J; van Dongen, Johanna M; Tompa, Emile; van Tulder, Maurits W; Bosmans, Judith E

2017-01-26

The use of economic evaluations in healthcare decision-making can potentially help decision-makers in allocating scarce resources as efficiently as possible. Over a decade ago, the use of such studies was found to be limited in Dutch healthcare decision-making, but their current use is unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to provide insight into the current and potential use of economic evaluations in Dutch healthcare decision-making and to identify barriers and facilitators to the use of such studies. Interviews containing semi-structured and structured questions were conducted among Dutch healthcare decision-makers. Participants were purposefully selected and special efforts were made to include decision-makers working at the macro- (national), meso- (local/regional), and micro-level (patient setting). During the interviews, a topic list was used that was based on the research questions and a literature search, and was developed in consultation with the Dutch National Healthcare Institute. Responses to the semi-structured questions were analyzed using a constant comparative approach. As for the structured questions, participants' definitions of various economic evaluation concepts were scored as either being "correct" or "incorrect" by two researchers, and summary statistics were prepared. Sixteen healthcare decision-makers were interviewed and two health economists. Decision-makers' knowledge of economic evaluations was only modest, and their current use appeared to be limited. Nonetheless, decision-makers recognized the importance of economic evaluations and saw several opportunities for extending their use at the macro- and meso-level, but not at the micro-level. The disparity between the limited use and recognition of the importance of economic evaluations is likely due to the many barriers decision-makers experience preventing their use (e.g. lack of resources, lack of formal willingness-to-pay threshold). Possible facilitators for extending the use of economic evaluations include, amongst others, educating decision-makers and the general population about economic evaluations and presenting economic evaluation results in a clearer and more understandable way. This study demonstrated that the current use and impact of economic evaluations in Dutch healthcare decision-making is limited at best. Therefore, strategies are needed to overcome the barriers that currently prevent economic evaluations from being used extensively.

Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grunert, Megan L.

Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

Interpreting indirect treatment comparisons and network meta-analysis for health-care decision making: report of the ISPOR Task Force on Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices: part 1.

PubMed

Jansen, Jeroen P; Fleurence, Rachael; Devine, Beth; Itzler, Robbin; Barrett, Annabel; Hawkins, Neil; Lee, Karen; Boersma, Cornelis; Annemans, Lieven; Cappelleri, Joseph C

2011-06-01

Evidence-based health-care decision making requires comparisons of all relevant competing interventions. In the absence of randomized, controlled trials involving a direct comparison of all treatments of interest, indirect treatment comparisons and network meta-analysis provide useful evidence for judiciously selecting the best choice(s) of treatment. Mixed treatment comparisons, a special case of network meta-analysis, combine direct and indirect evidence for particular pairwise comparisons, thereby synthesizing a greater share of the available evidence than a traditional meta-analysis. This report from the ISPOR Indirect Treatment Comparisons Good Research Practices Task Force provides guidance on the interpretation of indirect treatment comparisons and network meta-analysis to assist policymakers and health-care professionals in using its findings for decision making. We start with an overview of how networks of randomized, controlled trials allow multiple treatment comparisons of competing interventions. Next, an introduction to the synthesis of the available evidence with a focus on terminology, assumptions, validity, and statistical methods is provided, followed by advice on critically reviewing and interpreting an indirect treatment comparison or network meta-analysis to inform decision making. We finish with a discussion of what to do if there are no direct or indirect treatment comparisons of randomized, controlled trials possible and a health-care decision still needs to be made. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical decision from k test series with particular focus on population genetics tools: a DIY notice.

PubMed

De Meeûs, Thierry

2014-03-01

In population genetics data analysis, researchers are often faced to the problem of decision making from a series of tests of the same null hypothesis. This is the case when one wants to test differentiation between pathogens found on different host species sampled from different locations (as many tests as number of locations). Many procedures are available to date but not all apply to all situations. Finding which tests are significant or if the whole series is significant, when tests are independent or not do not require the same procedures. In this note I describe several procedures, among the simplest and easiest to undertake, that should allow decision making in most (if not all) situations population geneticists (or biologists) should meet, in particular in host-parasite systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A crash course on data analysis in asteroseismology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appourchaux, Thierry

2014-02-01

In this course, I try to provide a few basics required for performing data analysis in asteroseismology. First, I address how one can properly treat times series: the sampling, the filtering effect, the use of Fourier transform, the associated statistics. Second, I address how one can apply statistics for decision making and for parameter estimation either in a frequentist of a Bayesian framework. Last, I review how these basic principle have been applied (or not) in asteroseismology.

Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

PubMed

van Dongen, Johanna M; Tompa, Emile; Clune, Laurie; Sarnocinska-Hart, Anna; Bongers, Paulien M; van Tulder, Maurits W; van der Beek, Allard J; van Wier, Marieke F

2013-06-03

Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers. An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers' knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared. The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer's costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic evaluation skill set of decision-makers. Financial information is particularly important at the front end of implementation decisions, and can be a key deciding factor of whether to go forward with a new OHS intervention. In addition, it appears that current practice in occupational health in the healthcare sector is not solidly grounded in evidence-based decision-making and strategies should be developed to improve this.

Bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health: a qualitative study among decision-makers in the healthcare sector

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Continued improvements in occupational health can only be ensured if decisions regarding the implementation and continuation of occupational health and safety interventions (OHS interventions) are based on the best available evidence. To ensure that this is the case, scientific evidence should meet the needs of decision-makers. As a first step in bridging the gap between the economic evaluation literature and daily practice in occupational health, this study aimed to provide insight into the occupational health decision-making process and information needs of decision-makers. Methods An exploratory qualitative study was conducted with a purposeful sample of occupational health decision-makers in the Ontario healthcare sector. Eighteen in-depth interviews were conducted to explore the process by which occupational health decisions are made and the importance given to the financial implications of OHS interventions. Twenty-five structured telephone interviews were conducted to explore the sources of information used during the decision-making process, and decision-makers’ knowledge on economic evaluation methods. In-depth interview data were analyzed according to the constant comparative method. For the structured telephone interviews, summary statistics were prepared. Results The occupational health decision-making process generally consists of three stages: initiation stage, establishing the need for an intervention; pre-implementation stage, developing an intervention and its business case in order to receive senior management approval; and implementation and evaluation stage, implementing and evaluating an intervention. During this process, information on the financial implications of OHS interventions was found to be of great importance, especially the employer’s costs and benefits. However, scientific evidence was rarely consulted, sound ex-post program evaluations were hardly ever performed, and there seemed to be a need to advance the economic evaluation skill set of decision-makers. Conclusions Financial information is particularly important at the front end of implementation decisions, and can be a key deciding factor of whether to go forward with a new OHS intervention. In addition, it appears that current practice in occupational health in the healthcare sector is not solidly grounded in evidence-based decision-making and strategies should be developed to improve this. PMID:23731570

Modeling Human-Computer Decision Making with Covariance Structure Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coovert, Michael D.; And Others

Arguing that sufficient theory exists about the interplay between human information processing, computer systems, and the demands of various tasks to construct useful theories of human-computer interaction, this study presents a structural model of human-computer interaction and reports the results of various statistical analyses of this model.…

Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

Treesearch

James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

2001-01-01

Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

Decision Making in Online Fantasy Sports Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Brian; Sharma, Priya; Hooper, Paula

2006-01-01

This paper describes the forms of knowledge used by players of fantasy sports, games where players create ideal sports teams and compete to accumulate points based on professional athletes' statistical performances. Messages from a discussion forum associated with a popular fantasy basketball game were analyzed to understand how players described…

Assessment Atlas, 1983-84.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yosemite Community Coll. District, Modesto, CA.

Designed to provide information of value in establishing a base for decision making in the Yosemite Community College District (YCCD), this assessment atlas graphically presents statistical data for the District as a whole, its two campuses, and YCCD Central Services for 1983-84. After an introduction to the use of the assessment atlas and…

Transportability of Equivalence-Based Programmed Instruction: Efficacy and Efficiency in a College Classroom

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fienup, Daniel M.; Critchfield, Thomas S.

2011-01-01

College students in a psychology research-methods course learned concepts related to inferential statistics and hypothesis decision making. One group received equivalence-based instruction on conditional discriminations that were expected to promote the emergence of many untaught, academically useful abilities (i.e., stimulus equivalence group). A…

A Survey of Factors Influencing High School Start Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolfson, Amy R.; Carskadon, Mary A.

2005-01-01

The present study surveyed high school personnel regarding high school start times, factors influencing school start times, and decision making around school schedules. Surveys were analyzed from 345 secondary schools selected at random from the National Center for Educational Statistics database. Factors affecting reported start times included…

Developing and Assessing E-Learning Techniques for Teaching Forecasting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gel, Yulia R.; O'Hara Hines, R. Jeanette; Chen, He; Noguchi, Kimihiro; Schoner, Vivian

2014-01-01

In the modern business environment, managers are increasingly required to perform decision making and evaluate related risks based on quantitative information in the face of uncertainty, which in turn increases demand for business professionals with sound skills and hands-on experience with statistical data analysis. Computer-based training…

St. Petersburg Junior College Fact Book, 1999-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Saint Petersburg Junior Coll., FL. Office of Institutional Research.

The St. Petersburg Junior College (SPJC) Factbook provide statistical information and a historical perspective on the college. It is designed as a reference for academic and administrative decision-making and planning. In general, data are provided for multiple years within each topic. The Factbook contains eight major sections: (1) History…

Community Participation of the Elderly Chicano: A Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daley, John Michael; And Others

1989-01-01

Proposes strategies for development of participatory processes and systems that take into account reality of daily life in barrio for Chicano elderly. Recommends statistical data should be enriched by qualitative information for decision-making purposes: calm rationality of people discussing the problems of others should be balanced by fire of…

From the Knowledge of Understanding to Military Deception

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-21

and decision-making. Experimental research could lead to a validation of the theory. In the experiment, I tried to cause a decrease in ambiguity and...strong evidence that indicate a relationship. Further research with a larger sample size might show a significant statistical relationship. In order...2 Research question

Racial Bias in the Juvenile Justice System in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pratt, Menah A. E.

1993-01-01

Examines research on racial bias, focusing on the discretionary decision-making junctures of the juvenile court system. Research and statistics continue to suggest that the public, the police, the prosecution, and the jury all treat blacks more unfairly based to a large extent on race. (SLD)

On Categorical Diagnoses in "DSM-V": Cutting Dimensions at Useful Points?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kamphuis, Jan H.; Noordhof, Arjen

2009-01-01

The "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (5th ed.; "DSM-V") will likely place more emphasis on dimensional representation of mental disorders. However, it is often argued that categorical diagnoses are preferable for professional communication, clinical decision-making, or distinguishing between individuals with and without a…

On the Efficient Allocation of Resources for Hypothesis Evaluation in Machine Learning: A Statistical Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, S.; Gratch, J.; Burl, M.

1994-01-01

In this report we consider a decision-making problem of selecting a strategy from a set of alternatives on the basis of incomplete information (e.g., a finite number of observations): the system can, however, gather additional information at some cost.

Beyond Composite Scores and Cronbach's Alpha: Advancing Methodological Rigor in Recreation Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gagnon, Ryan J.; Stone, Garrett A.; Garst, Barry A.

2017-01-01

Critically examining common statistical approaches and their strengths and weaknesses is an important step in advancing recreation and leisure sciences. To continue this critical examination and to inform methodological decision making, this study compared three approaches to determine how alternative approaches may result in contradictory…

Gunslingers, poker players, and chickens 1: Decision making under physical performance pressure in elite athletes.

PubMed

Parkin, Beth L; Warriner, Katie; Walsh, Vincent

2017-01-01

The cognitive skills required during sport are highly demanding; accurate decisions based on the processing of dynamic environments are made in a fraction of a second (Walsh, 2014). Optimal decision-making abilities are crucial for success in sporting competition (Bar-Eli et al., 2011; Kaya, 2014). Moreover, for the elite athlete, decision making is required under conditions of intense mental and physical pressure (Anshel and Wells, 2000), yet much of the work in this area has largely ignored the highly stressful context in which athletes operate. A number of studies have shown that conditions of elevated pressure influence athletes' decision quality (Kinrade et al., 2015; Smith et al., 2016), response times (Hepler, 2015; Smith et al., 2016) and risk taking (Pighin et al., 2015). However, almost all of this work has been undertaken in nonelite athletes and participants who do not routinely operate under conditions of high stress. Thus, there is very little known about the influence of pressure on decision making in elite athletes. This study investigated the influence of physical performance pressure on decision making in a sample of world-class elite athletes. This allowed an examination of whether findings from the previous work in nonelite athletes extend to those who routinely operate under conditions of high stress. How this work could be applied to improve insight and understanding of decision making among sport professionals is examined. We sought to introduce a categorization of decision making useful to practitioners in sport: gunslingers, poker players, and chickens. Twenty-three elite athletes who compete and have frequent success at an international level (including six Olympic medal winners) performed tasks relating to three categories of decision making under conditions of low and high physical pressure. Decision making under risk was measured with performance on the Cambridge Gambling Task (CGT; Rogers et al., 1999), decision making under uncertainty with the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART; Lejuez et al., 2002), and fast reactive responses and interference with the Stroop Task (Stroop, 1935). Performance pressures of physical exhaustion was induced via an exercise protocol consisting of intervals of maximal exertion undertaken on a watt bike. At a group level, under physical pressure elite athletes were faster to respond to control trials on the Stroop Task and to simple probabilistic choices on the CGT. Physical pressure was also found to increase risk taking for decisions where probability outcomes were explicit (on the CGT), but did not affect risk taking when probability outcomes were unknown (on the BART). There were no significant correlations in the degree to which individuals' responses changed under pressure across the three tasks, suggesting that elite athletes did not show consistent responses to physical pressure across measures of decision making. When assessing the applicability of results based on group averages to individual athletes, none of the sample showed an "average" response (within 1 SD of the mean) to pressure across all three decision-making tasks. There are three points of conclusion. First, an immediate scientific point that highlights a failure of transfer of work reported from nonelite athletes to elite athletes in the area of decision making under pressure. Second, a practical conclusion with respect to the application of this work to the elite sporting environment, which highlights the limitations of statistical approaches based on group averages and thus the beneficial use of individualized profiling in feedback sessions. Third, the application of this work in a sports setting is described, in particular the development and implementation of a decision-making taxonomy as a framework to conceptualize and communicate psychological skills among elite sporting professionals. © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cool but counterproductive: interactive, Web-based risk communications can backfire.

PubMed

Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

2011-08-25

Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of "fill-in-the-blank" pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents' ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P < .001) than the static image conditions. In addition, respondents using interactive graphs were less likely to recognize and select the dominant treatment option (234/380, 61.6% vs 343/465, 73.8%, P < .001 in the strong dominance condition). Interactivity, however visually appealing, can both add to respondent burden and distract people from understanding relevant statistical information. Decision-aid developers need to be aware that interactive risk presentations may create worse outcomes than presentations of static risk graphic formats.

Cool but Counterproductive: Interactive, Web-Based Risk Communications Can Backfire

PubMed Central

Dickson, Mark; Witteman, Holly O

2011-01-01

Background Paper-based patient decision aids generally present risk information using numbers and/or static images. However, limited psychological research has suggested that when people interactively graph risk information, they process the statistics more actively, making the information more available for decision making. Such interactive tools could potentially be incorporated in a new generation of Web-based decision aids. Objective The objective of our study was to investigate whether interactive graphics detailing the risk of side effects of two treatments improve knowledge and decision making over standard risk graphics. Methods A total of 3371 members of a demographically diverse Internet panel viewed a hypothetical scenario about two hypothetical treatments for thyroid cancer. Each treatment had a chance of causing 1 of 2 side effects, but we randomly varied whether one treatment was better on both dimensions (strong dominance condition), slightly better on only one dimension (mild dominance condition), or better on one dimension but worse on the other (trade-off condition) than the other treatment. We also varied whether respondents passively viewed the risk information in static pictograph (icon array) images or actively manipulated the information by using interactive Flash-based animations of “fill-in-the-blank” pictographs. Our primary hypothesis was that active manipulation would increase respondents’ ability to recognize dominance (when available) and choose the better treatment. Results The interactive risk graphic conditions had significantly worse survey completion rates (1110/1695, 65.5% vs 1316/1659, 79.3%, P < .001) than the static image conditions. In addition, respondents using interactive graphs were less likely to recognize and select the dominant treatment option (234/380, 61.6% vs 343/465, 73.8%, P < .001 in the strong dominance condition). Conclusions Interactivity, however visually appealing, can both add to respondent burden and distract people from understanding relevant statistical information. Decision-aid developers need to be aware that interactive risk presentations may create worse outcomes than presentations of static risk graphic formats. PMID:21868349

The Effects of Emotive Reasoning on Secondary School Students' Decision-Making in the Context of Socioscientific Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Wardell A.

The discrepancy between what students are being taught within K-12 science classrooms and what they experience in the real world has been well documented. This study sought to explore the ways a high school biology curriculum, which integrates socioscientific issues, impacts students' emotive reasoning and their ability to evaluate evidence, make informed decisions on contemporary scientific dilemmas, and integrate scientific content knowledge in their reasoning on SSI. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to examine differences within and between an SSI treatment group and a comparison group as well as individual differences among students' responses over a semester of high school biology. Results indicated students used emotions largely to evaluate evidence and make decisions on contentious scientific dilemmas. In addition, the results showed students used newly gained scientific content knowledge to make logical predictions on contentious scientific issues. Statistical significance was found between groups of students in regard to their interest in the use of embryonic stem cell treatments to restore rats' vision, as well as students' abilities to evaluate evidence. Theoretical implications regarding the use of SSI in the classroom are presented.

Ethical decision-making climate in the ICU: theoretical framework and validation of a self-assessment tool.

PubMed

Van den Bulcke, Bo; Piers, Ruth; Jensen, Hanne Irene; Malmgren, Johan; Metaxa, Victoria; Reyners, Anna K; Darmon, Michael; Rusinova, Katerina; Talmor, Daniel; Meert, Anne-Pascale; Cancelliere, Laura; Zubek, Làszló; Maia, Paolo; Michalsen, Andrej; Decruyenaere, Johan; Kompanje, Erwin J O; Azoulay, Elie; Meganck, Reitske; Van de Sompel, Ariëlla; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Vlerick, Peter; Vanheule, Stijn; Benoit, Dominique D

2018-02-23

Literature depicts differences in ethical decision-making (EDM) between countries and intensive care units (ICU). To better conceptualise EDM climate in the ICU and to validate a tool to assess EDM climates. Using a modified Delphi method, we built a theoretical framework and a self-assessment instrument consisting of 35 statements. This Ethical Decision-Making Climate Questionnaire (EDMCQ) was developed to capture three EDM domains in healthcare: interdisciplinary collaboration and communication; leadership by physicians; and ethical environment. This instrument was subsequently validated among clinicians working in 68 adult ICUs in 13 European countries and the USA. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis was used to determine the structure of the EDM climate as perceived by clinicians. Measurement invariance was tested to make sure that variables used in the analysis were comparable constructs across different groups. Of 3610 nurses and 1137 physicians providing ICU bedside care, 2275 (63.1%) and 717 (62.9%) participated respectively. Statistical analyses revealed that a shortened 32-item version of the EDMCQ scale provides a factorial valid measurement of seven facets of the extent to which clinicians perceive an EDM climate: self-reflective and empowering leadership by physicians; practice and culture of open interdisciplinary reflection; culture of not avoiding end-of-life decisions; culture of mutual respect within the interdisciplinary team; active involvement of nurses in end-of-life care and decision-making; active decision-making by physicians; and practice and culture of ethical awareness. Measurement invariance of the EDMCQ across occupational groups was shown, reflecting that nurses and physicians interpret the EDMCQ items in a similar manner. The 32-item version of the EDMCQ might enrich the EDM climate measurement, clinicians' behaviour and the performance of healthcare organisations. This instrument offers opportunities to develop tailored ICU team interventions. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Has Lean improved organizational decision making?

PubMed

Simons, Pascale; Benders, Jos; Bergs, Jochen; Marneffe, Wim; Vandijck, Dominique

2016-06-13

Purpose - Sustainable improvement is likely to be hampered by ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in care processes (the organization's decision-making context). Lean management can improve implementation results because it decreases ambiguity and uncertainties. But does it succeed? Many quality improvement (QI) initiatives are appropriate improvement strategies in organizational contexts characterized by low ambiguity and uncertainty. However, most care settings do not fit this context. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a Lean-inspired change program changed the organization's decision-making context, making it more amenable for QI initiatives. Design/methodology/approach - In 2014, 12 professionals from a Dutch radiotherapy institute were interviewed regarding their perceptions of a Lean program in their organization and the perceived ambiguous objectives and uncertain cause-effect relations in their clinical processes. A survey (25 questions), addressing the same concepts, was conducted among the interviewees in 2011 and 2014. The structured interviews were analyzed using a deductive approach. Quantitative data were analyzed using appropriate statistics. Findings - Interviewees experienced improved shared visions and the number of uncertain cause-effect relations decreased. Overall, more positive (99) than negative Lean effects (18) were expressed. The surveys revealed enhanced process predictability and standardization, and improved shared visions. Practical implications - Lean implementation has shown to lead to greater transparency and increased shared visions. Originality/value - Lean management decreased ambiguous objectives and reduced uncertainties in clinical process cause-effect relations. Therefore, decision making benefitted from Lean increasing QI's sustainability.

Expanding the base for teaching of percutaneous coronary interventions: the explicit approach.

PubMed

Lanzer, Peter; Prechelt, Lutz

2011-02-15

Accelerate and improve the training and learning process of operators performing percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI). Operator cognitive, in particular decision-making skills and technical skills are a major factor for the success of coronary interventions. Currently, cognitive skills are commonly developed by three methods: (1) Cognitive learning of rules for which statistical evidence is available. This is very incomprehensive and isolates cognitive learning from skill acquisition. (2) Informal tutoring received from experienced operators, and (3) personal experience by trial-and-error are both very slow. We propose in this concept article a conceptual framework to elicit, capture, and transfer expert PCI skills to complement the current approach. This includes the development of an in-depth understanding of the nature of PCI skills, terminology, and nomenclature needed to streamline communication, propensity of reproducible performance assessment, and in particular an explication of intervention planning and intra-intervention decision-making. We illustrate the impact of improved decision-making by simulation results based on a stochastic model of intervention risk. We identify several key concepts that form the basis of this conceptual framework, in particular different risk types and the notions of strategy, interventional module, and tactic. The increasing complexity of cases have brought PCI to the point where the decision-making skills of master operators need to be made explicit to make them systematically learnable such that the skills of beginner and intermediate operators can be improved much faster than is currently possible. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Equity monitoring for social marketing: use of wealth quintiles and the concentration index for decision making in HIV prevention, family planning, and malaria programs.

PubMed

Chakraborty, Nirali M; Firestone, Rebecca; Bellows, Nicole

2013-01-01

The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the exposed, while the wealthy were more likely to use modern contraceptives (concentration index = 0.071, p < 0.01) among the unexposed. Using wealth quintiles and concentration indices together for equity monitoring improves usability of findings for decision making. Applying both metrics, and analyzing equity of exposure along with health outcomes, provides results that have statistical and programmatic significance. Benchmarking equity data against national data improves generalizability. This approach benefits social marketers and global health implementers to improve strategic decision making and programs' ability to reach the poor.

Equity monitoring for social marketing: use of wealth quintiles and the concentration index for decision making in HIV prevention, family planning, and malaria programs

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Methods Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Results Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the exposed, while the wealthy were more likely to use modern contraceptives (concentration index = 0.071, p < 0.01) among the unexposed. Conclusions Using wealth quintiles and concentration indices together for equity monitoring improves usability of findings for decision making. Applying both metrics, and analyzing equity of exposure along with health outcomes, provides results that have statistical and programmatic significance. Benchmarking equity data against national data improves generalizability. This approach benefits social marketers and global health implementers to improve strategic decision making and programs' ability to reach the poor. PMID:23902715

An assessment of the shared-decision model in parents of children with acute otitis media.

PubMed

Merenstein, Dan; Diener-West, Marie; Krist, Alex; Pinneger, Matthew; Cooper, Lisa A

2005-12-01

Medicine is shifting from a doctor-centered approach to a model entailing more shared decision-making. Many organizations now recommend a shared-decision approach to treating children with acute otitis media (AOM). Our primary objectives in this study were to assess (1) which style of decision-making on the physician's part would most effectively reduce parents' proclivity to use antibiotics for treatment of their child's AOM and (2) parental satisfaction with different doctor-patient decision-making styles. We conducted a cross-sectional survey to examine how parents respond to doctor-patient communication styles in 3 clinical vignettes that presented 2 versions of a shared-decision model (SDM) and 1 paternalistic model. Parents were randomly assigned to receive 1 of 3 vignettes. The main predictor variable was the vignette assignment, and the main outcomes were (1) parent proclivity to use antibiotics and (2) parent ratings of care by the physician in the vignette. Using logistic regression, we adjusted for caregivers' age, gender, income, knowledge of antibiotics, decision-making preference, confidence in physician, and length of relationship with personal physician. Four hundred sixty-six parents met inclusion criteria, with a response rate of 94%. General characteristics were similar across vignette assignment groups. Parents who received the paternalistic-model vignettes were more likely to say that they would use antibiotics than those who received the SDM vignettes (odds ratio: 4.9; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-10.6). This result remained statistically significant after adjustment for potential confounders. In addition, parents in the shared-decision groups were more satisfied (93% and 84%) than those in the paternalistic-model group (76%). To our knowledge, this is the first study to examine parent interest, acceptance, and satisfaction with the SDM. Our findings suggest that shared decision-making for AOM may lead to less antibiotic usage and higher levels of parental satisfaction. Although more studies are needed to examine how best to incorporate parents in the SDM, our study serves as an example of the potential benefit of this approach in pediatric medicine.

Use of handheld computers in clinical practice: a systematic review.

PubMed

Mickan, Sharon; Atherton, Helen; Roberts, Nia Wyn; Heneghan, Carl; Tilson, Julie K

2014-07-06

Many healthcare professionals use smartphones and tablets to inform patient care. Contemporary research suggests that handheld computers may support aspects of clinical diagnosis and management. This systematic review was designed to synthesise high quality evidence to answer the question; Does healthcare professionals' use of handheld computers improve their access to information and support clinical decision making at the point of care? A detailed search was conducted using Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Science and Social Science Citation Indices since 2001. Interventions promoting healthcare professionals seeking information or making clinical decisions using handheld computers were included. Classroom learning and the use of laptop computers were excluded. Two authors independently selected studies, assessed quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and extracted data. High levels of data heterogeneity negated statistical synthesis. Instead, evidence for effectiveness was summarised narratively, according to each study's aim for assessing the impact of handheld computer use. We included seven randomised trials investigating medical or nursing staffs' use of Personal Digital Assistants. Effectiveness was demonstrated across three distinct functions that emerged from the data: accessing information for clinical knowledge, adherence to guidelines and diagnostic decision making. When healthcare professionals used handheld computers to access clinical information, their knowledge improved significantly more than peers who used paper resources. When clinical guideline recommendations were presented on handheld computers, clinicians made significantly safer prescribing decisions and adhered more closely to recommendations than peers using paper resources. Finally, healthcare professionals made significantly more appropriate diagnostic decisions using clinical decision making tools on handheld computers compared to colleagues who did not have access to these tools. For these clinical decisions, the numbers need to test/screen were all less than 11. Healthcare professionals' use of handheld computers may improve their information seeking, adherence to guidelines and clinical decision making. Handheld computers can provide real time access to and analysis of clinical information. The integration of clinical decision support systems within handheld computers offers clinicians the highest level of synthesised evidence at the point of care. Future research is needed to replicate these early results and to identify beneficial clinical outcomes.

Use of handheld computers in clinical practice: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many healthcare professionals use smartphones and tablets to inform patient care. Contemporary research suggests that handheld computers may support aspects of clinical diagnosis and management. This systematic review was designed to synthesise high quality evidence to answer the question; Does healthcare professionals’ use of handheld computers improve their access to information and support clinical decision making at the point of care? Methods A detailed search was conducted using Cochrane, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Science and Social Science Citation Indices since 2001. Interventions promoting healthcare professionals seeking information or making clinical decisions using handheld computers were included. Classroom learning and the use of laptop computers were excluded. Two authors independently selected studies, assessed quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool and extracted data. High levels of data heterogeneity negated statistical synthesis. Instead, evidence for effectiveness was summarised narratively, according to each study’s aim for assessing the impact of handheld computer use. Results We included seven randomised trials investigating medical or nursing staffs’ use of Personal Digital Assistants. Effectiveness was demonstrated across three distinct functions that emerged from the data: accessing information for clinical knowledge, adherence to guidelines and diagnostic decision making. When healthcare professionals used handheld computers to access clinical information, their knowledge improved significantly more than peers who used paper resources. When clinical guideline recommendations were presented on handheld computers, clinicians made significantly safer prescribing decisions and adhered more closely to recommendations than peers using paper resources. Finally, healthcare professionals made significantly more appropriate diagnostic decisions using clinical decision making tools on handheld computers compared to colleagues who did not have access to these tools. For these clinical decisions, the numbers need to test/screen were all less than 11. Conclusion Healthcare professionals’ use of handheld computers may improve their information seeking, adherence to guidelines and clinical decision making. Handheld computers can provide real time access to and analysis of clinical information. The integration of clinical decision support systems within handheld computers offers clinicians the highest level of synthesised evidence at the point of care. Future research is needed to replicate these early results and to identify beneficial clinical outcomes. PMID:24998515

Women's household decision-making autonomy and safer sex negotiation in Nigeria: An analysis of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey.

PubMed

Sano, Yujiro; Sedziafa, Alice P; Vercillo, Siera; Antabe, Roger; Luginaah, Isaac

2018-02-01

Although married women's safer sex negotiation with their husbands is critical in reducing new HIV infections in Nigeria, its linkage to women's household decision-making autonomy is less explored in Nigeria. Drawing data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey and using the logistic regression technique, we examined the associations between women's household decision-making autonomy and two indicators of the ability to engage in safer sex including whether married women 1) can refuse sex and 2) ask for condom use during sexual intercourse with husbands. Findings indicate that 64% and 41% of married women can refuse sex and ask for condom use, respectively. While the impact of women's household decision-making autonomy on the ability to refuse sex remained statistically significant after controlling for theoretically relevant variables (OR = 1.15; p < 0.001), its impact on the ability to ask for condom use became weakly significant once socioeconomic variables were controlled (OR = 1.03; p < 0.1). Based on these results, we have two suggestions. First, it may be important that marital-based policies and counselling promote environments in which married women can establish equal power relations with their husbands. Second, it is also important to eliminate structural barriers that hinder married women's economic opportunities in Nigeria.

Quantum-Like Models for Decision Making in Psychology and Cognitive Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khrennikov, Andrei.

2009-02-01

We show that (in contrast to rather common opinion) the domain of applications of the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics is not restricted to physics. This formalism can be applied to the description of various quantum-like (QL) information processing. In particular, the calculus of quantum (and more general QL) probabilities can be used to explain some paradoxical statistical data which was collected in psychology and cognitive science. The main lesson of our study is that one should sharply distinguish the mathematical apparatus of QM from QM as a physical theory. The domain of application of the mathematical apparatus is essentially wider than quantum physics. Quantum-like representation algorithm, formula of total probability, interference of probabilities, psychology, cognition, decision making.

Influence of environmental statistics on inhibition of saccadic return

PubMed Central

Farrell, Simon; Ludwig, Casimir J. H.; Ellis, Lucy A.; Gilchrist, Iain D.

2009-01-01

Initiating an eye movement is slowed if the saccade is directed to a location that has been fixated in the recent past. We show that this inhibitory effect is modulated by the temporal statistics of the environment: If a return location is likely to become behaviorally relevant, inhibition of return is absent. By fitting an accumulator model of saccadic decision-making, we show that the inhibitory effect and the sensitivity to local statistics can be dissociated in their effects on the rate of accumulation of evidence, and the threshold controlling the amount of evidence needed to generate a saccade. PMID:20080778

Establishing a learning foundation in a dynamically changing world: Insights from artificial language work

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzales, Kalim

It is argued that infants build a foundation for learning about the world through their incidental acquisition of the spatial and temporal regularities surrounding them. A challenge is that learning occurs across multiple contexts whose statistics can greatly differ. Two artificial language studies with 12-month-olds demonstrate that infants come prepared to parse statistics across contexts using the temporal and perceptual features that distinguish one context from another. These results suggest that infants can organize their statistical input with a wider range of features that typically considered. Possible attention, decision making, and memory mechanisms are discussed.

European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making.

PubMed

Fernandes, Carina; Gonçalves, Ana Ribeiro; Pasion, Rita; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Paiva, Tiago Oliveira; Melo E Castro, Joana; Barbosa, Fernando; Martins, Isabel Pavão; Marques-Teixeira, João

2018-03-01

Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are "morally acceptable" elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

Importance of scientific resources among local public health practitioners.

PubMed

Fields, Robert P; Stamatakis, Katherine A; Duggan, Kathleen; Brownson, Ross C

2015-04-01

We examined the perceived importance of scientific resources for decision-making among local health department (LHD) practitioners in the United States. We used data from LHD practitioners (n = 849). Respondents ranked important decision-making resources, methods for learning about public health research, and academic journal use. We calculated descriptive statistics and used logistic regression to measure associations of individual and LHD characteristics with importance of scientific resources. Systematic reviews of scientific literature (24.7%) were most frequently ranked as important among scientific resources, followed by scientific reports (15.9%), general literature review articles (6.5%), and 1 or a few scientific studies (4.8%). Graduate-level education (adjusted odds ratios [AORs] = 1.7-3.5), larger LHD size (AORs = 2.0-3.5), and leadership support (AOR = 1.6; 95% confidence interval = 1.1, 2.3) were associated with a higher ranking of importance of scientific resources. Graduate training, larger LHD size, and leadership that supports a culture of evidence-based decision-making may increase the likelihood of practitioners viewing scientific resources as important. Targeting communication channels that practitioners view as important can also guide research dissemination strategies.

Qualitative modeling of the decision-making process using electrooculography.

PubMed

Zargari Marandi, Ramtin; Sabzpoushan, S H

2015-12-01

A novel method based on electrooculography (EOG) has been introduced in this work to study the decision-making process. An experiment was designed and implemented wherein subjects were asked to choose between two items from the same category that were presented within a limited time. The EOG and voice signals of the subjects were recorded during the experiment. A calibration task was performed to map the EOG signals to their corresponding gaze positions on the screen by using an artificial neural network. To analyze the data, 16 parameters were extracted from the response time and EOG signals of the subjects. Evaluation and comparison of the parameters, together with subjects' choices, revealed functional information. On the basis of this information, subjects switched their eye gazes between items about three times on average. We also found, according to statistical hypothesis testing-that is, a t test, t(10) = 71.62, SE = 1.25, p < .0001-that the correspondence rate of a subjects' gaze at the moment of selection with the selected item was significant. Ultimately, on the basis of these results, we propose a qualitative choice model for the decision-making task.

An Intelligent Polar Cyberinfrastrucuture to Support Spatiotemporal Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, M.; Li, W.; Zhou, X.

2014-12-01

In the era of big data, polar sciences have already faced an urgent demand of utilizing intelligent approaches to support precise and effective spatiotemporal decision-making. Service-oriented cyberinfrastructure has advantages of seamlessly integrating distributed computing resources, and aggregating a variety of geospatial data derived from Earth observation network. This paper focuses on building a smart service-oriented cyberinfrastructure to support intelligent question answering related to polar datasets. The innovation of this polar cyberinfrastructure includes: (1) a problem-solving environment that parses geospatial question in natural language, builds geoprocessing rules, composites atomic processing services and executes the entire workflow; (2) a self-adaptive spatiotemporal filter that is capable of refining query constraints through semantic analysis; (3) a dynamic visualization strategy to support results animation and statistics in multiple spatial reference systems; and (4) a user-friendly online portal to support collaborative decision-making. By means of this polar cyberinfrastructure, we intend to facilitate integration of distributed and heterogeneous Arctic datasets and comprehensive analysis of multiple environmental elements (e.g. snow, ice, permafrost) to provide a better understanding of the environmental variation in circumpolar regions.

Heterosexual female adolescents' decision-making about sexual intercourse and pregnancy in rural Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Ezer, Paulina; Leipert, Bev; Evans, Marilyn; Regan, Sandra

2016-01-01

Rural female adolescents experience unique circumstances to sexual health care and information as compared to urban adolescents. These circumstances are largely due to their more isolated geographical location and rural sociocultural factors. These circumstances may be contributing factors to an incidence of adolescent pregnancy that is higher in rural areas than in urban cities. Thus, this higher incidence of pregnancy may be due to the ways in which rural adolescents make decisions regarding engagement in sexual intercourse. However, the rural female adolescent sexual decision-making process has rarely, if ever, been studied, and further investigation of this process is necessary. Focusing on rural female adolescents aged 16-19 years is especially significant as this age range is used for reporting most pregnancy and birth statistics in Ontario. Charmaz's guidelines for a constructivist grounded theory methodology were used to gain an in-depth understanding of eight Ontario rural female adolescents' decision-making process regarding sexual intercourse and pregnancy, and how they viewed rural factors and circumstances influencing this process. Research participants were obtained through initial sampling (from criteria developed prior to the study) and theoretical sampling (by collecting data that better inform the categories emerging from the data). Eight participants, aged 16-19 years, were invited to each take part in 1-2-hour individual interviews, and four of these participants were interviewed a second time to verify and elaborate on emerging constructed concepts, conceptual relationships, and the developing process. Data collection and analysis included both field notes and individual interviews in person and over the telephone. Data were analyzed for emerging themes to construct a theory to understand the participants' experiences making sexual decisions in a rural environment. The adolescent sexual decision-making process, Prioritizing Influences, that emerged from the analysis was a complex and non-linear process that involved prioritizing four influences within the rural context. The influences that participants of this study described as being part of their sexual decision-making process were personal values and circumstances, family values and expectations, friends' influences, and community influences. When influences coincided, they strengthened participants' sexual decisions, whereas when influences opposed each other, participants felt conflicted and prioritized the influence that had the most effect on their personal lives and future goals. Although these influences may be common to all adolescents, they impact the rural female adolescent sexual decision-making process by influencing and being influenced by geographical and sociocultural factors that make up the rural context. This study reveals important new and preliminary information about rural female adolescents' sexual decision-making process and factors that affect it. Findings improve understanding of how rural female adolescents make choices regarding sexual intercourse and pregnancy and can be used to guide future research projects that could facilitate effective development of sexual health promotion initiatives, inform rural health policy and practices, and enhance existing sexual education programs in rural communities.

Parallel Attack and the Enemy’s Decision Making Process

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-04-01

Theory Coursebook , Vol 2, Sept 1997, p 365 8 Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, 1 Feb 1995, p III-11 9 Gorrell, LtCol Edgar S., “The...Behavioral Strategies,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol 90, Issue 432, December, 1995, p1137 3 Joint Publication 5-0, Doctrine for...Strategies,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol 90, Issue 432, December, 1995, p1137 Allison, Graham T., “Conceptual Models and the Cuban

Statistics, Uncertainty, and Transmitted Variation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wendelberger, Joanne Roth

2014-11-05

The field of Statistics provides methods for modeling and understanding data and making decisions in the presence of uncertainty. When examining response functions, variation present in the input variables will be transmitted via the response function to the output variables. This phenomenon can potentially have significant impacts on the uncertainty associated with results from subsequent analysis. This presentation will examine the concept of transmitted variation, its impact on designed experiments, and a method for identifying and estimating sources of transmitted variation in certain settings.

Brain tissues volume measurements from 2D MRI using parametric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

L'vov, A. A.; Toropova, O. A.; Litovka, Yu. V.

2018-04-01

The purpose of the paper is to propose a fully automated method of volume assessment of structures within human brain. Our statistical approach uses maximum interdependency principle for decision making process of measurements consistency and unequal observations. Detecting outliers performed using maximum normalized residual test. We propose a statistical model which utilizes knowledge of tissues distribution in human brain and applies partial data restoration for precision improvement. The approach proposes completed computationally efficient and independent from segmentation algorithm used in the application.

The effectiveness of health impact assessment in influencing decision-making in Australia and New Zealand 2005–2009

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Health Impact Assessment (HIA) involves assessing how proposals may alter the determinants of health prior to implementation and recommends changes to enhance positive and mitigate negative impacts. HIAs growing use needs to be supported by a strong evidence base, both to validate the value of its application and to make its application more robust. We have carried out the first systematic empirical study of the influence of HIA on decision-making and implementation of proposals in Australia and New Zealand. This paper focuses on identifying whether and how HIAs changed decision-making and implementation and impacts that participants report following involvement in HIAs. Methods We used a two-step process first surveying 55 HIAs followed by 11 in-depth case studies. Data gathering methods included questionnaires with follow-up interview, semi-structured interviews and document collation. We carried out deductive and inductive qualitative content analyses of interview transcripts and documents as well as simple descriptive statistics. Results We found that most HIAs are effective in some way. HIAs are often directly effective in changing, influencing, broadening areas considered and in some cases having immediate impact on decisions. Even when HIAs are reported to have no direct effect on a decision they are often still effective in influencing decision-making processes and the stakeholders involved in them. HIA participants identify changes in relationships, improved understanding of the determinants of health and positive working relationships as major and sustainable impacts of their involvement. Conclusions This study clearly demonstrates direct and indirect effectiveness of HIA influencing decision making in Australia and New Zealand. We recommend that public health leaders and policy makers should be confident in promoting the use of HIA and investing in building capacity to undertake high quality HIAs. New findings about the value HIA stakeholders put on indirect impacts such as learning and relationship building suggest HIA has a role both as a technical tool that makes predictions of potential impacts of a policy, program or project and as a mechanism for developing relationships with and influencing other sectors. Accordingly when evaluating the effectiveness of HIAs we need to look beyond the direct impacts on decisions. PMID:24341545

Quantum-Like Model for Decision Making Process in Two Players Game. A Non-Kolmogorovian Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asano, Masanari; Ohya, Masanori; Khrennikov, Andrei

2011-03-01

In experiments of games, players frequently make choices which are regarded as irrational in game theory. In papers of Khrennikov (Information Dynamics in Cognitive, Psychological and Anomalous Phenomena. Fundamental Theories of Physics, Kluwer Academic, Norwell, 2004; Fuzzy Sets Syst. 155:4-17, 2005; Biosystems 84:225-241, 2006; Found. Phys. 35(10):1655-1693, 2005; in QP-PQ Quantum Probability and White Noise Analysis, vol. XXIV, pp. 105-117, 2009), it was pointed out that statistics collected in such the experiments have "quantum-like" properties, which can not be explained in classical probability theory. In this paper, we design a simple quantum-like model describing a decision-making process in a two-players game and try to explain a mechanism of the irrational behavior of players. Finally we discuss a mathematical frame of non-Kolmogorovian system in terms of liftings (Accardi and Ohya, in Appl. Math. Optim. 39:33-59, 1999).

Can decision-making skills affect responses to psychological stress in healthy women?

PubMed

Santos-Ruiz, Ana; Garcia-Rios, M Carmen; Fernandez-Sanchez, José Carlos; Perez-Garcia, Miguel; Muñoz-García, Miguel Angel; Peralta-Ramirez, Maria Isabel

2012-12-01

In recent studies showing how stress can affect an individual's decision-making process, the cognitive component of decision-making could also be considered a coping resource available to individuals when faced with a stressful situation. The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) constitutes the standard test for the assessment of decision-making skills under conditions of uncertainty. Responses of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to psychosocial stress, in turn, have been estimated by means of cortisol measurements. Our main objective in this study was to test if good and bad IGT performers show distinct HPA axis responses, when challenged in a classic psychosocial stress test. Because women have been shown to outperform men on the IGT under the influence of psychosocial stress, we chose a sample of 40 women to take the IGT before they were exposed to a public speaking task in a virtual environment. The activation of the HPA axis, involved in the stress response, was assessed by examining the levels of cortisol in the subjects' saliva at the following four stages: before the challenge, after the challenge, and 10 and 20 min after the task. Participants were divided into two groups according to their level of performance, good or poor, on the IGT. Results showed statistically significant differences between the groups for pre-exposure cortisol levels and for cortisol levels 20 min after exposure. Overall cortisol levels were significantly higher in the group with poor performance on the IGT. It appears that good decision-making, which may be an important resource for coping with stress, is associated with a lower HPA axis response to a psychosocial stressor. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Internet use in pregnancy informs women's decision making: a web-based survey.

PubMed

Lagan, Briege M; Sinclair, Marlene; Kernohan, W George

2010-06-01

Internet access and usage is almost ubiquitous, providing new opportunities and increasing challenges for health care practitioners and users. With pregnant women reportedly turning to the Internet for information during pregnancy, a better understanding of this behavior is needed. The objective of this study was to ascertain why and how pregnant women use the Internet as a health information source, and the overall effect it had on their decision making. Kuhlthau's (1993) information-seeking model was adapted to provide the underpinning theoretical framework for the study. The design was exploratory and descriptive. Data were collected using a valid and reliable web-based questionnaire. Over a 12-week period, 613 women from 24 countries who had confirmed that they had used the Internet for pregnancy-related information during their pregnancy completed and submitted a questionnaire. Most women (97%) used search engines such as Google to identify online web pages to access a large variety of pregnancy-related information and to use the Internet for pregnancy-related social networking, support, and electronic commerce (i.e., e-commerce). Almost 94 percent of women used the Internet to supplement information already provided by health professionals and 83 percent used it to influence their pregnancy decision making. Nearly half of the respondents reported dissatisfaction with information given by health professionals (48.6%) and lack of time to ask health professionals questions (46.5%) as key factors influencing them to access the Internet. Statistically, women's confidence levels significantly increased with respect to making decisions about their pregnancy after Internet usage (p < 0.05). In this study, the Internet played a significant part in the respondents' health information seeking and decision making in pregnancy. Health professionals need to be ready to support pregnant women in online data retrieval, interpretation, and application.

Minimizing Uncertainties Impact in Decision Making with an Applicability Study for Economic Power Dispatch

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Hong; Wang, Shaobu; Fan, Rui

This report summaries the work performed under the LDRD project on the preliminary study on knowledge automation, where specific focus has been made on the investigation of the impact of uncertainties of human decision making onto the optimization of the process operation. At first the statistics on signals from the Brain-Computing Interface (BCI) is analyzed so as to obtain the uncertainties characterization of human operators during the decision making phase using the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. This is then followed by the discussions of an architecture that reveals the equivalence between optimization and closed loop feedback control design, where it hasmore » been shown that all the optimization problems can be transferred into the control design problem for closed loop systems. This has led to a “closed loop” framework, where the structure of the decision making is shown to be subjected to both process disturbances and controller’s uncertainties. The latter can well represent the uncertainties or randomness occurred during human decision making phase. As a result, a stochastic optimization problem has been formulated and a novel solution has been proposed using probability density function (PDF) shaping for both the cost function and the constraints using stochastic distribution control concept. A sufficient condition has been derived that guarantees the convergence of the optimal solution and discussions have been made for both the total probabilistic solution and chanced constrained optimization which have been well-studied in optimal power flows (OPF) area. A simple case study has been carried out for the economic dispatch of powers for a grid system when there are distributed energy resources (DERs) in the system, and encouraging results have been obtained showing that a significant savings on the generation cost can be expected.« less

The information value of early career productivity in mathematics: a ROC analysis of prediction errors in bibliometricly informed decision making.

PubMed

Lindahl, Jonas; Danell, Rickard

The aim of this study was to provide a framework to evaluate bibliometric indicators as decision support tools from a decision making perspective and to examine the information value of early career publication rate as a predictor of future productivity. We used ROC analysis to evaluate a bibliometric indicator as a tool for binary decision making. The dataset consisted of 451 early career researchers in the mathematical sub-field of number theory. We investigated the effect of three different definitions of top performance groups-top 10, top 25, and top 50 %; the consequences of using different thresholds in the prediction models; and the added prediction value of information on early career research collaboration and publications in prestige journals. We conclude that early career performance productivity has an information value in all tested decision scenarios, but future performance is more predictable if the definition of a high performance group is more exclusive. Estimated optimal decision thresholds using the Youden index indicated that the top 10 % decision scenario should use 7 articles, the top 25 % scenario should use 7 articles, and the top 50 % should use 5 articles to minimize prediction errors. A comparative analysis between the decision thresholds provided by the Youden index which take consequences into consideration and a method commonly used in evaluative bibliometrics which do not take consequences into consideration when determining decision thresholds, indicated that differences are trivial for the top 25 and the 50 % groups. However, a statistically significant difference between the methods was found for the top 10 % group. Information on early career collaboration and publication strategies did not add any prediction value to the bibliometric indicator publication rate in any of the models. The key contributions of this research is the focus on consequences in terms of prediction errors and the notion of transforming uncertainty into risk when we are choosing decision thresholds in bibliometricly informed decision making. The significance of our results are discussed from the point of view of a science policy and management.

Design of point-of-care (POC) microfluidic medical diagnostic devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leary, James F.

2018-02-01

Design of inexpensive and portable hand-held microfluidic flow/image cytometry devices for initial medical diagnostics at the point of initial patient contact by emergency medical personnel in the field requires careful design in terms of power/weight requirements to allow for realistic portability as a hand-held, point-of-care medical diagnostics device. True portability also requires small micro-pumps for high-throughput capability. Weight/power requirements dictate use of super-bright LEDs and very small silicon photodiodes or nanophotonic sensors that can be powered by batteries. Signal-to-noise characteristics can be greatly improved by appropriately pulsing the LED excitation sources and sampling and subtracting noise in between excitation pulses. The requirements for basic computing, imaging, GPS and basic telecommunications can be simultaneously met by use of smartphone technologies, which become part of the overall device. Software for a user-interface system, limited real-time computing, real-time imaging, and offline data analysis can be accomplished through multi-platform software development systems that are well-suited to a variety of currently available cellphone technologies which already contain all of these capabilities. Microfluidic cytometry requires judicious use of small sample volumes and appropriate statistical sampling by microfluidic cytometry or imaging for adequate statistical significance to permit real-time (typically < 15 minutes) medical decisions for patients at the physician's office or real-time decision making in the field. One or two drops of blood obtained by pin-prick should be able to provide statistically meaningful results for use in making real-time medical decisions without the need for blood fractionation, which is not realistic in the field.

Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

2009-01-01

For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

76 FR 2337 - Certain Cased Pencils From the People's Republic of China: Preliminary Results and Partial...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-01-13

... has autonomy from the government in making decisions regarding the selection of management; and (4... Financial Statistics. When relying on prices of imports into India as surrogate values, we have disregarded... the 2006-2007 financial statement of Triveni Pencils Ltd. (``Triveni''), an Indian producer of pencils...

76 FR 41207 - Tapered Roller Bearings and Parts Thereof, Finished or Unfinished, From the People's Republic of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-13

...) whether the respondent has autonomy from the government in making decisions regarding the selection of... respondent has autonomy from the government regarding the selection of management.\\28\\ \\28\\ See Sihe's SRA... published in the International Monetary Fund's International Financial Statistics.\\38\\ \\37\\ See Surrogate...

Problems of the Randomization Test for AB Designs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manolov, Rumen; Solanas, Antonio

2009-01-01

N = 1 designs imply repeated registrations of the behaviour of the same experimental unit and the measurements obtained are often few due to time limitations, while they are also likely to be sequentially dependent. The analytical techniques needed to enhance statistical and clinical decision making have to deal with these problems. Different…

The Relationship between Statistical Analysis Abilities and the Production of Research among Saudi Faculty Members

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Hattami, Abdulghani Ali Dawod; Al-Ahdal, Arif Ahmed Mohammed Hassa

2015-01-01

Scientific research plays an important role in creating growth and progress in developing countries (Greenstone, 2010). Developed countries have realized that importance and focused on conducting scientific researches to help them make valuable decisions. Many Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, are trying to encourage faculty members at all…

A Critical Approach and a Statistical Study to Leadership in University Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goulionis, Yannis

2013-01-01

The higher education sub-sector of the entire education system is very important and plays pivotal role in all walks of life. Quality in the universities cannot be orchestrated without charismatic and effective administration doubled with management decision-making techniques. The study was aimed at evaluating the management techniques used in…

An Empirical Study of Graduate Student Mobility Underpinning Research Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Furukawa, Takao; Shirakawa, Nobuyuki; Okuwada, Kumi

2013-01-01

The issue of international student mobility has had a profound effect on policy decision-making in the higher education system of essentially every country; however, the statistical data on this subject are insufficient, especially for graduate students. The purposes of this study are to substantiate the state of international mobility among…

Patients' Non-Medical Characteristics Contribute to Collective Medical Decision-Making at Multidisciplinary Oncological Team Meetings.

PubMed

Restivo, Léa; Apostolidis, Thémis; Bouhnik, Anne-Déborah; Garciaz, Sylvain; Aurran, Thérèse; Julian-Reynier, Claire

2016-01-01

The contribution of patients' non-medical characteristics to individual physicians' decision-making has attracted considerable attention, but little information is available on this topic in the context of collective decision-making. Medical decision-making at cancer centres is currently carried out using a collective approach, at MultiDisciplinary Team (MDT) meetings. The aim of this study was to determine how patients' non-medical characteristics are presented at MDT meetings and how this information may affect the team's final medical decisions. Observations were conducted at a French Cancer Centre during MDT meetings at which non-standard cases involving some uncertainty were discussed from March to May 2014. Physicians' verbal statements and predefined contextual parameters were collected with a non-participant observational approach. Non numerical data collected in the form of open notes were then coded for quantitative analysis. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. In the final sample of patients' records included and discussed (N = 290), non-medical characteristics were mentioned in 32.8% (n = 95) of the cases. These characteristics corresponded to demographics in 22.8% (n = 66) of the cases, psychological data in 11.7% (n = 34), and relational data in 6.2% (n = 18). The patient's age and his/her "likeability" were the most frequently mentioned characteristics. In 17.9% of the cases discussed, the final decision was deferred: this outcome was positively associated with the patients' non-medical characteristics and with uncertainty about the outcome of the therapeutic options available. The design of the study made it difficult to draw definite cause-and-effect conclusions. The Social Representations approach suggests that patients' non-medical characteristics constitute a kind of tacit professional knowledge that may be frequently mobilised in physicians' everyday professional practice. The links observed between patients' attributes and the medical decisions made at these meetings show that these attributes should be taken into account in order to understand how medical decisions are reached in difficult situations of this kind.

Of goals and habits: age-related and individual differences in goal-directed decision-making.

PubMed

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Heekeren, Hauke R; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this study we investigated age-related and individual differences in habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision-making. Specifically, we were interested in three questions. First, does age affect the balance between model-based and model-free decision mechanisms? Second, are these age-related changes due to age differences in working memory (WM) capacity? Third, can model-based behavior be affected by manipulating the distinctiveness of the reward value of choice options? To answer these questions we used a two-stage Markov decision task in in combination with computational modeling to dissociate model-based and model-free decision mechanisms. To affect model-based behavior in this task we manipulated the distinctiveness of reward probabilities of choice options. The results show age-related deficits in model-based decision-making, which are particularly pronounced if unexpected reward indicates the need for a shift in decision strategy. In this situation younger adults explore the task structure, whereas older adults show perseverative behavior. Consistent with previous findings, these results indicate that older adults have deficits in the representation and updating of expected reward value. We also observed substantial individual differences in model-based behavior. In younger adults high WM capacity is associated with greater model-based behavior and this effect is further elevated when reward probabilities are more distinct. However, in older adults we found no effect of WM capacity. Moreover, age differences in model-based behavior remained statistically significant, even after controlling for WM capacity. Thus, factors other than decline in WM, such as deficits in the in the integration of expected reward value into strategic decisions may contribute to the observed impairments in model-based behavior in older adults.

Of goals and habits: age-related and individual differences in goal-directed decision-making

PubMed Central

Eppinger, Ben; Walter, Maik; Heekeren, Hauke R.; Li, Shu-Chen

2013-01-01

In this study we investigated age-related and individual differences in habitual (model-free) and goal-directed (model-based) decision-making. Specifically, we were interested in three questions. First, does age affect the balance between model-based and model-free decision mechanisms? Second, are these age-related changes due to age differences in working memory (WM) capacity? Third, can model-based behavior be affected by manipulating the distinctiveness of the reward value of choice options? To answer these questions we used a two-stage Markov decision task in in combination with computational modeling to dissociate model-based and model-free decision mechanisms. To affect model-based behavior in this task we manipulated the distinctiveness of reward probabilities of choice options. The results show age-related deficits in model-based decision-making, which are particularly pronounced if unexpected reward indicates the need for a shift in decision strategy. In this situation younger adults explore the task structure, whereas older adults show perseverative behavior. Consistent with previous findings, these results indicate that older adults have deficits in the representation and updating of expected reward value. We also observed substantial individual differences in model-based behavior. In younger adults high WM capacity is associated with greater model-based behavior and this effect is further elevated when reward probabilities are more distinct. However, in older adults we found no effect of WM capacity. Moreover, age differences in model-based behavior remained statistically significant, even after controlling for WM capacity. Thus, factors other than decline in WM, such as deficits in the in the integration of expected reward value into strategic decisions may contribute to the observed impairments in model-based behavior in older adults. PMID:24399925

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

PubMed

Mutero, Clifford M; Kramer, Randall A; Paul, Christopher; Lesser, Adriane; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kiptui, Rebecca; Kabatereine, Narcis; Ameneshewa, Birkinesh

2014-08-08

Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST). Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate. Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides. Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

A framework to investigate drivers of adaptation decisions in marine fishing: Evidence from urban, semi-urban and rural communities.

PubMed

Malakar, Krishna; Mishra, Trupti; Patwardhan, Anand

2018-05-11

Traditional fishing livelihoods need to adapt to changing fish catch/populations, led by numerous anthropogenic, environmental and climatic stressors. The decision to adapt can be influenced by a variety of socio-economic and perceptual factors. However, adaptation decision-making in fishing communities has rarely been studied. Based on previous literature and focus group discussions with community, this study identifies few prominent adaptation responses in marine fishing and proposes credible factors driving decisions to adopt them. Further, a household survey is conducted, and the association of these drivers with various adaptation strategies is examined among fisherfolk of Maharashtra (India). This statistical analysis is based on 601 responses collected across three regional fishing groups: urban, semi-urban and rural. Regional segregation is done to understand variability in decision-making among groups which might be having different socio-economic and perceptual attributes. The survey reveals that only few urban fishing households have been able to diversify into other livelihoods. While having economic capital increases the likelihood of adaptation among urban and semi-urban communities, rural fishermen are significantly driven by social capital. Perception of climate change affecting fish catch drives adoption of mechanized boats solely in urban region. But increasing number of extreme events affects decisions of semi-urban and rural fishermen. Further, rising pollution and trade competition is associated with adaptation responses in the urban and semi-urban community. Higher education might help fishermen choose convenient forms of adaptation. Also, cooperative membership and subsidies are critical in adaptation decisions. The framework and insights of the study suggest the importance of acknowledging differential decision-making of individuals and communities, for designing effective adaptation and capacity-building policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tourism climatology for camping: a case study of two Ontario parks (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel; Gough, William A.

2015-08-01

Climate and weather act as central motivators for the travel decisions of tourists. Due to their seasonality, these factors determine the availability and quality of certain outdoor recreational activities. Park visitation in Ontario, Canada, has been identified as a weather sensitive tourism and recreation activity. This study used a survey-based approach to identify and compare stated weather preferences and thresholds, as well as weather-related decision-making for campers at two provincial parks in Ontario, Canada. The two parks were selected for differing physical and environmental characteristics (forested lake versus coastal beach). Statistically significant differences were detected between the two parks in relation to the importance of weather and weather-based decision-making. Specific temperatures that were considered ideal and thresholds that were too cool and too warm were identified for both parks, both during the day and the night. Heavy rain and strong winds were the most influential factors in weather-related decision-making and on-site behavioural adaptations. Beach campers placed greater importance on the absence of rain and the presence of comfortable temperatures compared to forest campers. In addition, beach campers were more likely to leave the park early due to incremental weather changes. The results of this study suggest that beach campers are more sensitive to weather than forest campers.

Influences on decision-making for young women undergoing bilateral prophylactic mastectomy.

PubMed

Glassey, Rachael; O'Connor, Moira; Ives, Angela; Saunders, Christobel; Hardcastle, Sarah J

2018-02-01

The objective of this study was to explore the influences on decision-making of younger women (<35) undergoing or considering bilateral prophylactic mastectomy (BPM). Qualitative interviews guided by interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) were conducted with forty-six women who had a strong family history of breast cancer (BC) who had either undergone (n=26) or were considering (n=20) BPM. Participants were recruited from Australia and New Zealand (NZ) via hospitals, a genetics clinic, a research cohort, a registry and online. Four themes underpinning the influences on decision-making were identified: fear and anxiety, children, personal experiences with BC, health professional's influence. The decision to undergo BPM for younger women (<35) was multifaceted, however, it appeared that fear and anxiety were the main influence. Younger women appear more anxious than previous research with older women. There appears to be few differences between those with confirmed BRCA1/2 mutations and those with no known mutation and this is clinically significant. These findings have important practice implications, particularly improving communication of risk statistics, especially to those with no known mutation. Health professionals need to take into account the way younger women perceive information given to them when discussing risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What difference do brain images make in US criminal trials?

PubMed

Hardcastle, Valerie Gray; Lamb, Edward

2018-05-09

One of the early concerns regarding the use of neuroscience data in criminal trials is that even if the brain images are ambiguous or inconclusive, they still might influence a jury in virtue of the fact that they appear easy to understand. By appearing visually simple, even though they are really statistically constructed maps with a host of assumptions built into them, a lay jury or a judge might take brain scans to be more reliable or relevant than they actually are. Should courts exclude brain scans for being more prejudicial than probative? Herein, we rehearse a brief history of brain scans admitted into criminal trials in the United States, then describe the results of a recent analysis of appellate court decisions that referenced 1 or more brain scans in the judicial decision. In particular, we aim to explain how courts use neuroscience imaging data: Do they interpret the data correctly? Does it seem that scans play an oversized role in judicial decision-making? And have they changed how criminal defendants are judged? It is our hope that in answering these questions, clinicians and defence attorneys will be able to make better informed decisions regarding about how to manage those incarcerated. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Unconscious race and class bias: its association with decision making by trauma and acute care surgeons.

PubMed

Haider, Adil H; Schneider, Eric B; Sriram, N; Dossick, Deborah S; Scott, Valerie K; Swoboda, Sandra M; Losonczy, Lia; Haut, Elliott R; Efron, David T; Pronovost, Peter J; Freischlag, Julie A; Lipsett, Pamela A; Cornwell, Edward E; MacKenzie, Ellen J; Cooper, Lisa A

2014-09-01

Recent studies have found that unconscious biases may influence physicians' clinical decision making. The objective of our study was to determine, using clinical vignettes, if unconscious race and class biases exist specifically among trauma/acute care surgeons and, if so, whether those biases impact surgeons' clinical decision making. A prospective Web-based survey was administered to active members of the Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma. Participants completed nine clinical vignettes, each with three trauma/acute care surgery management questions. Race Implicit Association Test (IAT) and social class IAT assessments were completed by each participant. Multivariable, ordered logistic regression analysis was then used to determine whether implicit biases reflected on the IAT tests were associated with vignette responses. In total, 248 members of the Eastern Association for the Surgery of Trauma participated. Of these, 79% explicitly stated that they had no race preferences and 55% stated they had no social class preferences. However, 73.5% of the participants had IAT scores demonstrating an unconscious preference toward white persons; 90.7% demonstrated an implicit preference toward upper social class persons. Only 2 of 27 vignette-based clinical decisions were associated with patient race or social class on univariate analyses. Multivariable analyses revealed no relationship between IAT scores and vignette-based clinical assessments. Unconscious preferences for white and upper-class persons are prevalent among trauma and acute care surgeons. In this study, these biases were not statistically significantly associated with clinical decision making. Further study of the factors that may prevent implicit biases from influencing patient management is warranted. Epidemiologic study, level II.

A mixed-methods exploration of the contraceptive experiences of female teens with epilepsy.

PubMed

Manski, Ruth; Dennis, Amanda

2014-09-01

We explored the contraceptive experiences of female teens with epilepsy, including their knowledge and perceptions of interactions between antiepileptic drugs and hormonal contraception and contraceptive decision-making processes. From November 2012 to May 2013, we conducted one online survey (n=114) and 12 online focus group discussions (n=26) with female teens with epilepsy about their contraceptive experiences and unmet needs. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and focus group transcripts were analyzed thematically using modified grounded theory methods. Both survey and focus group participants reported believing that interactions between epilepsy medications and hormonal contraceptives could lead to reductions in contraceptive efficacy and seizure control. However, their knowledge about these types of medication interactions was often incomplete. Many study participants viewed contraceptive decision making as a difficult process, and some participants reported avoiding hormonal contraceptives because of potential interactions with antiepileptic drugs. Study participants reported relying on health care providers and parents for contraceptive decision-making support. Focus group participants also reported they wanted health care providers to provide more in-depth and comprehensive counseling about contraception, and that they desired peer support with contraceptive decisions. The ability to make informed contraceptive decisions is important for teens with epilepsy as interactions between anti-epileptic drugs and hormonal contraceptives can impact seizure occurrence and lead to an increased risk of unplanned pregnancy. Guidance for providers offering contraceptive care to this population is needed, as well as a contraceptive support tool that empowers teens with epilepsy to advocate for desired health care. Copyright © 2014 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia: disproportionate prevalence of women among Kevorkian's patients.

PubMed

Solomon, Louis M; Noll, Rebekka C

2008-06-01

End-of-life decisions are among the most difficult to make or study. When we examined these decisions made under the auspices and protection of stringent state laws, we found no gender bias among patients who chose to end their lives in the face of documented debilitating and terminal diseases. However, in the case of euthanasia as practiced by Jack Kevorkian, we found significant statistical bias against women. Moreover, other data have questioned whether all of Kevorkian's patients did, in fact, have debilitating and terminal illnesses. In this article, we explore why a gender disparity exists in end-of-life decision making. We conclude that if physician-assisted suicide and euthanasia are to be integrated into any end-of-life medical care policy, stringent legal and medical safeguards will be required. Institution of these safeguards should prevent selection bias in a vulnerable population hastening death for reasons other than medically justifiable conditions or issues of individual autonomy, and should ensure that end-of-life decisions are truly reflective of competent personal choice, free from economic considerations or societal pressure.

Does accountability for reasonableness work? A protocol for a mixed methods study using an audit tool to evaluate the decision-making of clinical commissioning groups in England.

PubMed

Kieslich, Katharina; Littlejohns, Peter

2015-07-10

Clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) in England are tasked with making difficult decisions on which healthcare services to provide against the background of limited budgets. The question is how to ensure that these decisions are fair and legitimate. Accounts of what constitutes fair and legitimate priority setting in healthcare include Daniels' and Sabin's accountability for reasonableness (A4R) and Clark's and Weale's framework for the identification of social values. This study combines these accounts and asks whether the decisions of those CCGs that adhere to elements of such accounts are perceived as fairer and more legitimate by key stakeholders. The study addresses the empirical gap arising from a lack of research on whether frameworks such as A4R hold what they promise. It aims to understand the criteria that feature in CCG decision-making. Finally, it examines the usefulness of a decision-making audit tool (DMAT) in identifying the process and content criteria that CCGs apply when making decisions. The adherence of a sample of CCGs to criteria emerging from theories of fair priority setting will be examined using the DMAT developed by PL. The results will be triangulated with data from semistructured interviews with key stakeholders in the CCG sample to ascertain whether there is a correlation between those CCGs that performed well in the DMAT exercise and those whose decisions are perceived positively by interviewees. Descriptive statistical methods will be used to analyse the DMAT data. A combination of quantitative and qualitative content analysis methods will be used to analyse the interview transcripts. Full ethics approval was received by the King's College London Biomedical Sciences, Dentistry, Medicine and Natural and Mathematical Sciences Research Ethics Subcommittee. The results of the study will be disseminated through publications in peer review journals. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Statistical Engineering in Air Traffic Management Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Sara R.

2015-01-01

NASA is working to develop an integrated set of advanced technologies to enable efficient arrival operations in high-density terminal airspace for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. This integrated arrival solution is being validated and verified in laboratories and transitioned to a field prototype for an operational demonstration at a major U.S. airport. Within NASA, this is a collaborative effort between Ames and Langley Research Centers involving a multi-year iterative experimentation process. Designing and analyzing a series of sequential batch computer simulations and human-in-the-loop experiments across multiple facilities and simulation environments involves a number of statistical challenges. Experiments conducted in separate laboratories typically have different limitations and constraints, and can take different approaches with respect to the fundamental principles of statistical design of experiments. This often makes it difficult to compare results from multiple experiments and incorporate findings into the next experiment in the series. A statistical engineering approach is being employed within this project to support risk-informed decision making and maximize the knowledge gained within the available resources. This presentation describes a statistical engineering case study from NASA, highlights statistical challenges, and discusses areas where existing statistical methodology is adapted and extended.

Characterization of Sensory-Motor Behavior Under Cognitive Load Using a New Statistical Platform for Studies of Embodied Cognition

PubMed Central

Ryu, Jihye; Torres, Elizabeth B.

2018-01-01

The field of enacted/embodied cognition has emerged as a contemporary attempt to connect the mind and body in the study of cognition. However, there has been a paucity of methods that enable a multi-layered approach tapping into different levels of functionality within the nervous systems (e.g., continuously capturing in tandem multi-modal biophysical signals in naturalistic settings). The present study introduces a new theoretical and statistical framework to characterize the influences of cognitive demands on biophysical rhythmic signals harnessed from deliberate, spontaneous and autonomic activities. In this study, nine participants performed a basic pointing task to communicate a decision while they were exposed to different levels of cognitive load. Within these decision-making contexts, we examined the moment-by-moment fluctuations in the peak amplitude and timing of the biophysical time series data (e.g., continuous waveforms extracted from hand kinematics and heart signals). These spike-trains data offered high statistical power for personalized empirical statistical estimation and were well-characterized by a Gamma process. Our approach enabled the identification of different empirically estimated families of probability distributions to facilitate inference regarding the continuous physiological phenomena underlying cognitively driven decision-making. We found that the same pointing task revealed shifts in the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the hand kinematic signals under study and were accompanied by shifts in the signatures of the heart inter-beat-interval timings. Within the time scale of an experimental session, marked changes in skewness and dispersion of the distributions were tracked on the Gamma parameter plane with 95% confidence. The results suggest that traditional theoretical assumptions of stationarity and normality in biophysical data from the nervous systems are incongruent with the true statistical nature of empirical data. This work offers a unifying platform for personalized statistical inference that goes far beyond those used in conventional studies, often assuming a “one size fits all model” on data drawn from discrete events such as mouse clicks, and observations that leave out continuously co-occurring spontaneous activity taking place largely beneath awareness. PMID:29681805

Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dairaku, K.

2017-12-01

The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

A method to harness global crowd-sourced data to understand travel behavior in avalanche terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrikx, J.; Johnson, J.

2015-12-01

To date, most studies of the human dimensions of decision making in avalanche terrain has focused on two areas - post-accident analysis using accident reports/interviews and, the development of tools as decision forcing aids. We present an alternate method using crowd-sourced citizen science, for understanding decision-making in avalanche terrain. Our project combines real-time GPS tracking via a smartphone application, with internet based surveys of winter backcountry users as a method to describe and quantify travel practices in concert with group decision-making dynamics, and demographic data of participants during excursions. Effectively, we use the recorded GPS track taken within the landscape as an expression of the decision making processes and terrain usage by the group. Preliminary data analysis shows that individual experience levels, gender, avalanche hazard, and group composition all influence the ways in which people travel in avalanche terrain. Our results provide the first analysis of coupled real-time GPS tracking of the crowd while moving in avalanche terrain combined with psychographic and demographic correlates. This research will lead to an improved understanding of real-time decision making in avalanche terrain. In this paper we will specifically focus on the presentation of the methods used to solicit, and then harness the crowd to obtain data in a unique and innovative application of citizen science where the movements within the terrain are the desired output data (Figure 1). Figure 1: Example GPS tracks sourced from backcountry winter users in the Teton Pass area (Wyoming), from the 2014-15 winter season, where tracks in red represent those recorded as self-assessed experts (as per our survey), and where tracks in blue represent those recorded as self-assessed intermediates. All tracks shown were obtained under similar avalanche conditions. Statistical analysis of terrain metrics showed that the experts used steeper terrain than the intermediate users under similar avalanche conditions, demonstrating different terrain choice and use as a function of experience rather than hazard level.

Cancer multidisciplinary team meetings in practice: Results from a multi-institutional quantitative survey and implications for policy change.

PubMed

Rankin, Nicole M; Lai, Michelle; Miller, Danielle; Beale, Philip; Spigelman, Allan; Prest, Gabrielle; Turley, Kim; Simes, John

2018-02-01

Multidisciplinary care is advocated as best practice in cancer care. Relatively little is documented about multidisciplinary team (MDT) meeting functioning, decision making and the use of evidence to support decision making in Australia. This descriptive study aimed to examine team functioning, the role of team meetings and evidence use in MDTs whose institutions are members of Sydney Catalyst Translational Cancer Research Centre. We designed a structured 40-item survey instrument about topics that included meeting purpose, organization, resources and documentation; caseload estimates; use of evidence and quality assurance; patient involvement and supportive care needs; and open-ended items about the MDTs strengths and weaknesses. Participants were invited to participate via email and the survey was administered online. Data were analyzed using descriptive and comparative statistics. Thirty-seven MDTs from seven hospitals participated (100% response) and represented common (70%) and rare tumor groups (30%). MDT meeting purpose was reported as treatment (100%) or diagnostic decision making (88%), or for education purposes (70%). Most MDTs based treatment decisions on group consensus (92%), adherence to clinical practice guidelines (57%) or other evidence-based medicine sources (33%). The majority of MDTs discussed only a proportion of new patients at each meeting emphasizing the importance of educational aspects for other cases. Barriers exist in the availability of data to enable audit and reflection on evidence-based practice. MDT strengths included collaboration and quality discussion about patients. MDT meetings focus on treatment decision making, with group consensus playing a significant role in translating research evidence from guidelines into clinical decision making. With a varying proportion of patients discussed in each MDT meeting, a wider audit of multidisciplinary care would enable more accurate assessments of whether treatment recommendations are in accordance with best-practice evidence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Deriving the expected utility of a predictive model when the utilities are uncertain.

PubMed

Cooper, Gregory F; Visweswaran, Shyam

2005-01-01

Predictive models are often constructed from clinical databases with the goal of eventually helping make better clinical decisions. Evaluating models using decision theory is therefore natural. When constructing a model using statistical and machine learning methods, however, we are often uncertain about precisely how the model will be used. Thus, decision-independent measures of classification performance, such as the area under an ROC curve, are popular. As a complementary method of evaluation, we investigate techniques for deriving the expected utility of a model under uncertainty about the model's utilities. We demonstrate an example of the application of this approach to the evaluation of two models that diagnose coronary artery disease.

A Bernoulli Formulation of the Land-Use Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Champion, Richard A.

2008-01-01

Decision making for natural-hazards mitigation can be sketched as knowledge available in advance (a priori), knowledge available later (a posteriori), and how consequences of the mitigation decision might be viewed once future outcomes are known. Two outcomes - mitigating for a hazard event that will occur, and not mitigating for a hazard event that will not occur - can be considered narrowly correct. Two alternative outcomes - mitigating for a hazard event that will not occur, and not mitigating for a hazard event that will occur - can be considered narrowly incorrect. The dilemma facing the decision maker is that mitigation choices must be made before the event, and often must be made with imperfect statistical techniques and imperfect data.

A Primer on Receiver Operating Characteristic Analysis and Diagnostic Efficiency Statistics for Pediatric Psychology: We Are Ready to ROC

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Objective To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Method Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Results Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. Conclusions This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses. PMID:23965298

A primer on receiver operating characteristic analysis and diagnostic efficiency statistics for pediatric psychology: we are ready to ROC.

PubMed

Youngstrom, Eric A

2014-03-01

To offer a practical demonstration of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses, diagnostic efficiency statistics, and their application to clinical decision making using a popular parent checklist to assess for potential mood disorder. Secondary analyses of data from 589 families seeking outpatient mental health services, completing the Child Behavior Checklist and semi-structured diagnostic interviews. Internalizing Problems raw scores discriminated mood disorders significantly better than did age- and gender-normed T scores, or an Affective Problems score. Internalizing scores <8 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio <0.3, and scores >30 had a diagnostic likelihood ratio of 7.4. This study illustrates a series of steps in defining a clinical problem, operationalizing it, selecting a valid study design, and using ROC analyses to generate statistics that support clinical decisions. The ROC framework offers important advantages for clinical interpretation. Appendices include sample scripts using SPSS and R to check assumptions and conduct ROC analyses.

Multi-Agent Inference in Social Networks: A Finite Population Learning Approach.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Tong, Xin; Zeng, Yao

When people in a society want to make inference about some parameter, each person may want to use data collected by other people. Information (data) exchange in social networks is usually costly, so to make reliable statistical decisions, people need to trade off the benefits and costs of information acquisition. Conflicts of interests and coordination problems will arise in the process. Classical statistics does not consider people's incentives and interactions in the data collection process. To address this imperfection, this work explores multi-agent Bayesian inference problems with a game theoretic social network model. Motivated by our interest in aggregate inference at the societal level, we propose a new concept, finite population learning , to address whether with high probability, a large fraction of people in a given finite population network can make "good" inference. Serving as a foundation, this concept enables us to study the long run trend of aggregate inference quality as population grows.

Psychometric properties of the SDM-Q-9 questionnaire for shared decision-making in multiple sclerosis: item response theory modelling and confirmatory factor analysis.

PubMed

Ballesteros, Javier; Moral, Ester; Brieva, Luis; Ruiz-Beato, Elena; Prefasi, Daniel; Maurino, Jorge

2017-04-22

Shared decision-making is a cornerstone of patient-centred care. The 9-item Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire (SDM-Q-9) is a brief self-assessment tool for measuring patients' perceived level of involvement in decision-making related to their own treatment and care. Information related to the psychometric properties of the SDM-Q-9 for multiple sclerosis (MS) patients is limited. The objective of this study was to assess the performance of the items composing the SDM-Q-9 and its dimensional structure in patients with relapsing-remitting MS. A non-interventional, cross-sectional study in adult patients with relapsing-remitting MS was conducted in 17 MS units throughout Spain. A nonparametric item response theory (IRT) analysis was used to assess the latent construct and dimensional structure underlying the observed responses. A parametric IRT model, General Partial Credit Model, was fitted to obtain estimates of the relationship between the latent construct and item characteristics. The unidimensionality of the SDM-Q-9 instrument was assessed by confirmatory factor analysis. A total of 221 patients were studied (mean age = 42.1 ± 9.9 years, 68.3% female). Median Expanded Disability Status Scale score was 2.5 ± 1.5. Most patients reported taking part in each step of the decision-making process. Internal reliability of the instrument was high (Cronbach's α = 0.91) and the overall scale scalability score was 0.57, indicative of a strong scale. All items, except for the item 1, showed scalability indices higher than 0.30. Four items (items 6 through to 9) conveyed more than half of the SDM-Q-9 overall information (67.3%). The SDM-Q-9 was a good fit for a unidimensional latent structure (comparative fit index = 0.98, root-mean-square error of approximation = 0.07). All freely estimated parameters were statistically significant (P < 0.001). All items presented standardized parameter estimates with salient loadings (>0.40) with the exception of item 1 which presented the lowest loading (0.26). Items 6 through to 8 were the most relevant items for shared decision-making. The SDM-Q-9 presents appropriate psychometric properties and is therefore useful for assessing different aspects of shared decision-making in patients with multiple sclerosis.

A cross-sectional survey of supports for evidence-informed decision-making in healthcare organisations: a research protocol.

PubMed

Ouimet, Mathieu; Lavis, John N; Léon, Grégory; Ellen, Moriah E; Bédard, Pierre-Olivier; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre

2014-10-09

This protocol builds on the development of a) a framework that identified the various supports (i.e. positions, activities, interventions) that a healthcare organisation or health system can implement for evidence-informed decision-making (EIDM) and b) a qualitative study that showed the current mix of supports that some Canadian healthcare organisations have in place and the ones that are perceived to facilitate the use of research evidence in decision-making. Based on these findings, we developed a web survey to collect cross-sectional data about the specific supports that regional health authorities and hospitals in two Canadian provinces (Ontario and Quebec) have in place to facilitate EIDM. This paper describes the methods for a cross-sectional web survey among 32 regional health authorities and 253 hospitals in the provinces of Quebec and Ontario (Canada) to collect data on the current mix of organisational supports that these organisations have in place to facilitate evidence-informed decision-making. The data will be obtained through a two-step survey design: a 10-min survey among CEOs to identify key units and individuals in regard to our objectives (step 1) and a 20-min survey among managers of the key units identified in step 1 to collect information about the activities performed by their unit regarding the acquisition, assessment, adaptation and/or dissemination of research evidence in decision-making (step 2). The study will target three types of informants: CEOs, library/documentation centre managers and all other key managers whose unit is involved in the acquisition, assessment, adaptation/packaging and/or dissemination of research evidence in decision-making. We developed an innovative data collection system to increase the likelihood that only the best-informed respondent available answers each survey question. The reporting of the results will be done using descriptive statistics of supports by organisation type and by province. This study will be the first to collect and report large-scale cross-sectional data on the current mix of supports health system organisations in the two most populous Canadian provinces have in place for evidence-informed decision-making. The study will also provide useful information to researchers on how to collect organisation-level data with reduced risk of self-reporting bias.

ToxPi GUI: an interactive visualization tool for transparent integration of data from diverse sources of evidence.

PubMed

Reif, David M; Sypa, Myroslav; Lock, Eric F; Wright, Fred A; Wilson, Ander; Cathey, Tommy; Judson, Richard R; Rusyn, Ivan

2013-02-01

Scientists and regulators are often faced with complex decisions, where use of scarce resources must be prioritized using collections of diverse information. The Toxicological Prioritization Index (ToxPi™) was developed to enable integration of multiple sources of evidence on exposure and/or safety, transformed into transparent visual rankings to facilitate decision making. The rankings and associated graphical profiles can be used to prioritize resources in various decision contexts, such as testing chemical toxicity or assessing similarity of predicted compound bioactivity profiles. The amount and types of information available to decision makers are increasing exponentially, while the complex decisions must rely on specialized domain knowledge across multiple criteria of varying importance. Thus, the ToxPi bridges a gap, combining rigorous aggregation of evidence with ease of communication to stakeholders. An interactive ToxPi graphical user interface (GUI) application has been implemented to allow straightforward decision support across a variety of decision-making contexts in environmental health. The GUI allows users to easily import and recombine data, then analyze, visualize, highlight, export and communicate ToxPi results. It also provides a statistical metric of stability for both individual ToxPi scores and relative prioritized ranks. The ToxPi GUI application, complete user manual and example data files are freely available from http://comptox.unc.edu/toxpi.php.

Vehicular headways on signalized intersections: theory, models, and reality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krbálek, Milan; Šleis, Jiří

2015-01-01

We discuss statistical properties of vehicular headways measured on signalized crossroads. On the basis of mathematical approaches, we formulate theoretical and empirically inspired criteria for the acceptability of theoretical headway distributions. Sequentially, the multifarious families of statistical distributions (commonly used to fit real-road headway statistics) are confronted with these criteria, and with original empirical time clearances gauged among neighboring vehicles leaving signal-controlled crossroads after a green signal appears. Using three different numerical schemes, we demonstrate that an arrangement of vehicles on an intersection is a consequence of the general stochastic nature of queueing systems, rather than a consequence of traffic rules, driver estimation processes, or decision-making procedures.

Rule-based statistical data mining agents for an e-commerce application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yi; Zhang, Yan-Qing; King, K. N.; Sunderraman, Rajshekhar

2003-03-01

Intelligent data mining techniques have useful e-Business applications. Because an e-Commerce application is related to multiple domains such as statistical analysis, market competition, price comparison, profit improvement and personal preferences, this paper presents a hybrid knowledge-based e-Commerce system fusing intelligent techniques, statistical data mining, and personal information to enhance QoS (Quality of Service) of e-Commerce. A Web-based e-Commerce application software system, eDVD Web Shopping Center, is successfully implemented uisng Java servlets and an Oracle81 database server. Simulation results have shown that the hybrid intelligent e-Commerce system is able to make smart decisions for different customers.

Histopathological Breast Cancer Image Classification by Deep Neural Network Techniques Guided by Local Clustering.

PubMed

Nahid, Abdullah-Al; Mehrabi, Mohamad Ali; Kong, Yinan

2018-01-01

Breast Cancer is a serious threat and one of the largest causes of death of women throughout the world. The identification of cancer largely depends on digital biomedical photography analysis such as histopathological images by doctors and physicians. Analyzing histopathological images is a nontrivial task, and decisions from investigation of these kinds of images always require specialised knowledge. However, Computer Aided Diagnosis (CAD) techniques can help the doctor make more reliable decisions. The state-of-the-art Deep Neural Network (DNN) has been recently introduced for biomedical image analysis. Normally each image contains structural and statistical information. This paper classifies a set of biomedical breast cancer images (BreakHis dataset) using novel DNN techniques guided by structural and statistical information derived from the images. Specifically a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM), and a combination of CNN and LSTM are proposed for breast cancer image classification. Softmax and Support Vector Machine (SVM) layers have been used for the decision-making stage after extracting features utilising the proposed novel DNN models. In this experiment the best Accuracy value of 91.00% is achieved on the 200x dataset, the best Precision value 96.00% is achieved on the 40x dataset, and the best F -Measure value is achieved on both the 40x and 100x datasets.

Changes in Math Proficiency between 8th and 10th Grades. Statistics in Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rock, Don; And Others

Between 8th and 10th grades, many students are asked to make curriculum-related decisions that may ultimately influence their achievement in core academic subjects such as mathematics. While past achievement often limits the level of courses available to a student, aspirations for postsecondary education ultimately determine the level of…

Effects of an Evidence-Based Text on Scepticism, Methodological Reasoning, Values and Juror Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leshowitz, Barry; Okun, Morris

2011-01-01

Research in social cognition laboratories and in simulated legal settings demonstrates that people often do not understand the statistical properties of evidence and are unable to detect scientifically flawed studies. In a mock jury study, we examined the effects of an evidence-based transcript on scepticism towards evidence obtained in flawed…

Teaching an Application of Bayes' Rule for Legal Decision-Making: Measuring the Strength of Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Murray, Amy Vashlishan

2014-01-01

Although Bayesian methodology has become a powerful approach for describing uncertainty, it has largely been avoided in undergraduate statistics education. Here we demonstrate that one can present Bayes' Rule in the classroom through a hypothetical, yet realistic, legal scenario designed to spur the interests of students in introductory- and…

Making Decisions: Using Electronic Data Collection to Re-Envision Reference Services at the USF Tampa Libraries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Todorinova, Lily; Huse, Andy; Lewis, Barbara; Torrence, Matt

2011-01-01

Declining reference statistics, diminishing human resources, and the desire to be more proactive and embedded in academic departments, prompted the University of South Florida Library to create a taskforce for re-envisioning reference services. The taskforce was charged with examining the staffing patterns at the desk and developing…

Legal Environment v. Business Law Courses: A Distinction without a Difference?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Carol J.; Crain, Susan J.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to provide a content analysis and statistics on the law-related core course requirements in colleges of business to assist professors and administrators in making curriculum decisions. It examines the name of "undergraduate" law-based course requirements in the business core in 404 universities accredited by the…

Statistical sampling methods for soils monitoring

Treesearch

Ann M. Abbott

2010-01-01

Development of the best sampling design to answer a research question should be an interactive venture between the land manager or researcher and statisticians, and is the result of answering various questions. A series of questions that can be asked to guide the researcher in making decisions that will arrive at an effective sampling plan are described, and a case...

A Five Year Study of Selected Demographics of Middlesex Community College Graduates: 1985-1989.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coggins, John H.; Muzeroll, Terry

This analysis of selected demographic statistics of Middlesex Community College (MxCC) graduates is intended for future academic advising, curriculum planning, and decision making. This demographic profile is comprised of data from studies published between 1985 and 1989. The study focuses on fundamental demographic indicators, such as sex, age,…

Teaching Inferential Statistics to Social Work Students: A Decision-Making Flow Chart

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calderwood, Kimberly A.

2012-01-01

Given that social work research courses are typically built on modernist principles of teaching and content, it is not surprising that the majority of social work students dread these courses. Few attempts have been made to better align the modernist content of quantitative research with the postmodern philosophy and values inherent in current…

Comparing assessments of the decision-making competencies of psychiatric inpatients as provided by physicians, nurses, relatives and an assessment tool.

PubMed

Aydin Er, Rahime; Sehiralti, Mine

2014-07-01

To compare assessments of the decision-making competencies of psychiatric inpatients as provided by physicians, nurses, relatives and an assessment tool. This study was carried out at the psychiatry clinic of Kocaeli University Hospital from June 2007 to February 2008. The decision-making competence of the 83 patients who participated in the study was assessed by physicians, nurses, relatives and MacCAT-T. Of the 83 patients, the relatives of 73.8% of them, including the parents of 47.7%, were interviewed during the study. A moderately good consistency between the competency assessments of the nurses versus those of the physicians, but a poor consistency between the assessments of the physicians and nurses versus those of the patients' relatives, was determined. The differences in the competency assessment obtained with the MacCAT-T versus the evaluations of the physicians, nurses and patients' relatives were statistically significant. Our findings demonstrate those physicians, nurses and the patients' relatives have difficulty in identifying patients lacking decision-making competence. Therefore, an objective competence assessment tool should be used along with the assessments of physicians and nurses, both of whom can provide clinical data, as well as those of relatives, who can offer insights into the patient's moral values and expectations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Effects of ventilation rate per person and per floor area on perceived air quality, sick building syndrome symptoms, and decision-making.

PubMed

Maddalena, R; Mendell, M J; Eliseeva, K; Chan, W R; Sullivan, D P; Russell, M; Satish, U; Fisk, W J

2015-08-01

Ventilation rates (VRs) in buildings must adequately control indoor levels of pollutants; however, VRs are constrained by the energy costs. Experiments in a simulated office assessed the effects of VR per occupant on perceived air quality (PAQ), Sick Building Syndrome (SBS) symptoms, and decision-making performance. A parallel set of experiments assessed the effects of VR per unit floor area on the same outcomes. Sixteen blinded healthy young adult subjects participated in each study. Each exposure lasted four hours and each subject experienced two conditions in a within-subject study design. The order of presentation of test conditions, day of testing, and gender were balanced. Temperature, relative humidity, VRs, and concentrations of pollutants were monitored. Online surveys assessed PAQ and SBS symptoms and a validated computer-based tool measured decision-making performance. Neither changing the VR per person nor changing the VR per floor area, had consistent statistically significant effects on PAQ or SBS symptoms. However, reductions in either occupant-based VR or floor-area-based VR had a significant and independent negative impact on most decision-making measures. These results indicate that the changes in VR employed in the study influence performance of healthy young adults even when PAQ and SBS symptoms are unaffected. The study results indicate the importance of avoiding low VRs per person and low VRs per floor area to minimize decrements in cognitive performance. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Drug pricing and reimbursement decision making systems in Mongolia.

PubMed

Dorj, Gereltuya; Sunderland, Bruce; Sanjjav, Tsetsegmaa; Dorj, Gantuya; Gendenragchaa, Byambatsogt

2017-01-01

It is essential to allocate available resources equitably in order to ensure accessibility and affordability of essential medicines, especially in less fortunate nations with limited health funding. Currently, transparent and evidence based research is required to evaluate decision making regarding drug registration, drug pricing and reimbursement processes in Mongolia. To assess the drug reimbursement system and discuss challenges faced by policy-makers and stakeholders. The study has examined Mongolian administrative documents and directives for stakeholders and analysed published statistics. Experts and decision-makers were interviewed about the drug pricing and reimbursement processes in Mongolia. Decisions regarding Mongolian drug registration were based on commonly used criteria of quality, safety, efficacy plus some economic considerations. A total of 11.32 billion Mongolian National Tugrugs (MNT) [5.6 million United States Dollars (USD)] or 12.1% of total health expenditure was spent on patient reimbursement of essential drugs. The highest reimbursed drugs with respect to cost in 2014 were the cardiovascular drug group. Health insurance is compulsory for all citizens; in addition all insured patients have access to reimbursed drugs. However, the decision making process, in particular the level of reimbursement was limited by various barriers, including lack of evidence based data regarding efficacy and comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of drugs and decisions regarding reimbursement. Drug registration, pricing and reimbursement process in Mongolia show an increasing trend of drug registration and reimbursement rates, along with lack of transparency. Limited available data indicate that more evidence-based research studies are required in Mongolia to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of drug pricing and reimbursement policies.

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watkins, T., Jr.; Annis, C. G., Jr.

1991-01-01

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Multi-Parent Clustering Algorithms from Stochastic Grammar Data Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mjoisness, Eric; Castano, Rebecca; Gray, Alexander

1999-01-01

We introduce a statistical data model and an associated optimization-based clustering algorithm which allows data vectors to belong to zero, one or several "parent" clusters. For each data vector the algorithm makes a discrete decision among these alternatives. Thus, a recursive version of this algorithm would place data clusters in a Directed Acyclic Graph rather than a tree. We test the algorithm with synthetic data generated according to the statistical data model. We also illustrate the algorithm using real data from large-scale gene expression assays.

Aging, emotion, and health-related decision strategies: motivational manipulations can reduce age differences.

PubMed

Löckenhoff, Corinna E; Carstensen, Laura L

2007-03-01

According to socioemotional selectivity theory, age-related constraints on time horizons are associated with motivational changes that increasingly favor goals related to emotional well-being. Such changes have implications for emotionally taxing tasks such as making decisions, especially when decisions require consideration of unpleasant information. This study examined age differences in information acquisition and recall in the health care realm. Using computer-based decision scenarios, 60 older and 60 young adults reviewed choice criteria that contained positive, negative, and neutral information about different physicians and health care plans. As predicted, older adults reviewed and recalled a greater proportion of positive than of negative information compared with young adults. Age differences were eliminated when motivational manipulations elicited information-gathering goals or when time perspective was controlled statistically. Implications for improving decision strategies in older adults are discussed. ((c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved).

Causality in Statistical Power: Isomorphic Properties of Measurement, Research Design, Effect Size, and Sample Size.

PubMed

Heidel, R Eric

2016-01-01

Statistical power is the ability to detect a significant effect, given that the effect actually exists in a population. Like most statistical concepts, statistical power tends to induce cognitive dissonance in hepatology researchers. However, planning for statistical power by an a priori sample size calculation is of paramount importance when designing a research study. There are five specific empirical components that make up an a priori sample size calculation: the scale of measurement of the outcome, the research design, the magnitude of the effect size, the variance of the effect size, and the sample size. A framework grounded in the phenomenon of isomorphism, or interdependencies amongst different constructs with similar forms, will be presented to understand the isomorphic effects of decisions made on each of the five aforementioned components of statistical power.

Mammography Decision Aid Reduces Decisional Conflict for Women in Their Forties Considering Screening.

PubMed

Eden, Karen B; Scariati, Paula; Klein, Krystal; Watson, Lindsey; Remiker, Mark; Hribar, Michelle; Forro, Vanessa; Michaels, LeAnn; Nelson, Heidi D

2015-12-01

Clinical guidelines recommend a personalized approach to mammography screening for women in their forties; however, methods to do so are lacking. An evidence-based mammography screening decision aid was developed as an electronic mobile application and evaluated in a before-after study. The decision aid (Mammopad) included modules on breast cancer, mammography, risk assessment, and priority setting about screening. Women aged 40-49 years who were patients of rural primary care clinics, had no major risk factors for breast cancer, and no mammography during the previous year were invited to use the decision aid. Twenty women participated in pretesting of the decision aid and 75 additional women completed the before-after study. The primary outcome was decisional conflict measured before and after using Mammopad. Secondary outcomes included decision self-efficacy and intention to begin or continue mammography screening. Differences comparing measures before versus after use were determined using Wilcoxon signed rank tests. After using Mammopad, women reported reduced decisional conflict based on mean Decisional Conflict Scale scores overall (46.33 versus 8.33; Z = -7.225; p < 0.001) and on all subscales (p < 0.001). Women also reported increased mean Decision Self-Efficacy Scale scores (79.67 versus 95.73; Z = 6.816, p < 0.001). Although 19% of women changed their screening intentions, this was not statistically significant. Women reported less conflict about their decisions for mammography screening, and felt more confident to make decisions after using Mammopad. This approach may help guide women through the decision making process to determine personalized screening choices that are appropriate for them.

Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E.; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A.

2016-01-01

Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

Assessing neural activity related to decision-making through flexible odds ratio curves and their derivatives.

PubMed

Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Pardo-Vazquez, Jose L; Leboran, Victor; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Acuña, Carlos

2011-06-30

It is well established that neural activity is stochastically modulated over time. Therefore, direct comparisons across experimental conditions and determination of change points or maximum firing rates are not straightforward. This study sought to compare temporal firing probability curves that may vary across groups defined by different experimental conditions. Odds-ratio (OR) curves were used as a measure of comparison, and the main goal was to provide a global test to detect significant differences of such curves through the study of their derivatives. An algorithm is proposed that enables ORs based on generalized additive models, including factor-by-curve-type interactions to be flexibly estimated. Bootstrap methods were used to draw inferences from the derivatives curves, and binning techniques were applied to speed up computation in the estimation and testing processes. A simulation study was conducted to assess the validity of these bootstrap-based tests. This methodology was applied to study premotor ventral cortex neural activity associated with decision-making. The proposed statistical procedures proved very useful in revealing the neural activity correlates of decision-making in a visual discrimination task. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

PubMed Central

Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

2016-01-01

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process. PMID:26977450

Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network.

PubMed

Falat, Lukas; Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

2016-01-01

This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

Fuzzy set methods for object recognition in space applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, James M.

1991-01-01

Progress on the following tasks is reported: (1) fuzzy set-based decision making methodologies; (2) feature calculation; (3) clustering for curve and surface fitting; and (4) acquisition of images. The general structure for networks based on fuzzy set connectives which are being used for information fusion and decision making in space applications is described. The structure and training techniques for such networks consisting of generalized means and gamma-operators are described. The use of other hybrid operators in multicriteria decision making is currently being examined. Numerous classical features on image regions such as gray level statistics, edge and curve primitives, texture measures from cooccurrance matrix, and size and shape parameters were implemented. Several fractal geometric features which may have a considerable impact on characterizing cluttered background, such as clouds, dense star patterns, or some planetary surfaces, were used. A new approach to a fuzzy C-shell algorithm is addressed. NASA personnel are in the process of acquiring suitable simulation data and hopefully videotaped actual shuttle imagery. Photographs have been digitized to use in the algorithms. Also, a model of the shuttle was assembled and a mechanism to orient this model in 3-D to digitize for experiments on pose estimation is being constructed.

Don't Push Your Luck! Educational Family Board (Not Bored) Game for School-Age Children Living with Chronic Conditions.

PubMed

Kennedy, Andrea; Semple, Lisa; Alderson, Kerri; Bouskill, Vanessa; Karasevich, Janice; Riske, Brenda; van Gunst, Sheri

Children who are living with chronic conditions may be supported in self-care through enjoyable active learning and family social processes. This research focused on development and evaluation of "Don't Push Your Luck!", an educational board game designed to inspire family discussion about chronic conditions, and help affected children learn about self-care choices and consequences. Mixed-method research was conducted with families from one outpatient Cystic Fibrosis Clinic and four Hemophilia Treatment Centres in Canada and United States (N=72). In phase I, board game prototype and questionnaires were refined with affected boys, siblings, and parents living with hemophilia (n=11), compared with families living with cystic fibrosis (n=11). In phase II, final board game was evaluated with families living with hemophilia (n=50). Data collection included pre-post-game questionnaires on decision-making and Haemo-QoL Index©, and post-game enjoyment. Analysis included descriptive statistics, inferential statistics (non-parametric), and qualitative themes. Findings revealed this game was an enjoyable and effective resource to engage families in self-care discussions. Key themes included communication, being involved, knowing, decisions and consequences, and being connected. Qualitative and quantitative findings aligned. Statistical significance suggests the game enhanced family engagement to support decision-making skills, as parents identified that the game helped them talk about important topics, and children gained insight regarding family supports and self-care responsibility. This board game was an effective, developmentally appropriate family resource to facilitate engagement and conversation about everyday life experiences in preparation for self-care. There is promising potential to extend this educational family board game intervention with a greater range of school-age children and families living with chronic conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interpretation of statistical results.

PubMed

García Garmendia, J L; Maroto Monserrat, F

2018-02-21

The appropriate interpretation of the statistical results is crucial to understand the advances in medical science. The statistical tools allow us to transform the uncertainty and apparent chaos in nature to measurable parameters which are applicable to our clinical practice. The importance of understanding the meaning and actual extent of these instruments is essential for researchers, the funders of research and for professionals who require a permanent update based on good evidence and supports to decision making. Various aspects of the designs, results and statistical analysis are reviewed, trying to facilitate his comprehension from the basics to what is most common but no better understood, and bringing a constructive, non-exhaustive but realistic look. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

Decision Making Methodology to Mitigate Damage From Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Imja Lake in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKinney, D. C.; Cuellar, A. D.

2015-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Nepal leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, moraine failure or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Imja Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has experienced accelerated growth since it first appeared in the 1960s. Communities threatened by a flood from Imja Lake have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat of a GLOF. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Imja have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects in part because this information is unknown or uncertain. This work presents a demonstration of a decision making methodology developed to rationally analyze the risks posed by Imja Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed using available information. In this work the authors use decision analysis, data envelopement analysis (DEA), and sensitivity analysis to assess proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding and estimate fatalities using an empirical method developed for dam failures. The DEA methodology allows us to estimate the value of a statistical life implied by each project given the cost of the project and number of lives saved to determine which project is the most efficient. In contrast the decision analysis methodology requires fatalities to be assigned a cost but allows the inclusion of uncertainty in the decision making process. We compare the output of these two methodologies and determine the sensitivity of the conclusions to changes in uncertain input parameters including project cost, value of a statistical life, and time to a GLOF event.

A critique of statistical hypothesis testing in clinical research

PubMed Central

Raha, Somik

2011-01-01

Many have documented the difficulty of using the current paradigm of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) to test and validate the effectiveness of alternative medical systems such as Ayurveda. This paper critiques the applicability of RCTs for all clinical knowledge-seeking endeavors, of which Ayurveda research is a part. This is done by examining statistical hypothesis testing, the underlying foundation of RCTs, from a practical and philosophical perspective. In the philosophical critique, the two main worldviews of probability are that of the Bayesian and the frequentist. The frequentist worldview is a special case of the Bayesian worldview requiring the unrealistic assumptions of knowing nothing about the universe and believing that all observations are unrelated to each other. Many have claimed that the first belief is necessary for science, and this claim is debunked by comparing variations in learning with different prior beliefs. Moving beyond the Bayesian and frequentist worldviews, the notion of hypothesis testing itself is challenged on the grounds that a hypothesis is an unclear distinction, and assigning a probability on an unclear distinction is an exercise that does not lead to clarity of action. This critique is of the theory itself and not any particular application of statistical hypothesis testing. A decision-making frame is proposed as a way of both addressing this critique and transcending ideological debates on probability. An example of a Bayesian decision-making approach is shown as an alternative to statistical hypothesis testing, utilizing data from a past clinical trial that studied the effect of Aspirin on heart attacks in a sample population of doctors. As a big reason for the prevalence of RCTs in academia is legislation requiring it, the ethics of legislating the use of statistical methods for clinical research is also examined. PMID:22022152

Performance evaluation of the machine learning algorithms used in inference mechanism of a medical decision support system.

PubMed

Bal, Mert; Amasyali, M Fatih; Sever, Hayri; Kose, Guven; Demirhan, Ayse

2014-01-01

The importance of the decision support systems is increasingly supporting the decision making process in cases of uncertainty and the lack of information and they are widely used in various fields like engineering, finance, medicine, and so forth, Medical decision support systems help the healthcare personnel to select optimal method during the treatment of the patients. Decision support systems are intelligent software systems that support decision makers on their decisions. The design of decision support systems consists of four main subjects called inference mechanism, knowledge-base, explanation module, and active memory. Inference mechanism constitutes the basis of decision support systems. There are various methods that can be used in these mechanisms approaches. Some of these methods are decision trees, artificial neural networks, statistical methods, rule-based methods, and so forth. In decision support systems, those methods can be used separately or a hybrid system, and also combination of those methods. In this study, synthetic data with 10, 100, 1000, and 2000 records have been produced to reflect the probabilities on the ALARM network. The accuracy of 11 machine learning methods for the inference mechanism of medical decision support system is compared on various data sets.

Preparing for the first meeting with a statistician.

PubMed

De Muth, James E

2008-12-15

Practical statistical issues that should be considered when performing data collection and analysis are reviewed. The meeting with a statistician should take place early in the research development before any study data are collected. The process of statistical analysis involves establishing the research question, formulating a hypothesis, selecting an appropriate test, sampling correctly, collecting data, performing tests, and making decisions. Once the objectives are established, the researcher can determine the characteristics or demographics of the individuals required for the study, how to recruit volunteers, what type of data are needed to answer the research question(s), and the best methods for collecting the required information. There are two general types of statistics: descriptive and inferential. Presenting data in a more palatable format for the reader is called descriptive statistics. Inferential statistics involve making an inference or decision about a population based on results obtained from a sample of that population. In order for the results of a statistical test to be valid, the sample should be representative of the population from which it is drawn. When collecting information about volunteers, researchers should only collect information that is directly related to the study objectives. Important information that a statistician will require first is an understanding of the type of variables involved in the study and which variables can be controlled by researchers and which are beyond their control. Data can be presented in one of four different measurement scales: nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio. Hypothesis testing involves two mutually exclusive and exhaustive statements related to the research question. Statisticians should not be replaced by computer software, and they should be consulted before any research data are collected. When preparing to meet with a statistician, the pharmacist researcher should be familiar with the steps of statistical analysis and consider several questions related to the study to be conducted.

Understanding information synthesis in oral surgery for the design of systems for clinical information technology.

PubMed

Suebnukarn, Siriwan; Chanakarn, Piyawadee; Phisutphatthana, Sirada; Pongpatarat, Kanchala; Wongwaithongdee, Udom; Oupadissakoon, Chanekrid

2015-12-01

An understanding of the processes of clinical decision-making is essential for the development of health information technology. In this study we have analysed the acquisition of information during decision-making in oral surgery, and analysed cognitive tasks using a "think-aloud" protocol. We studied the techniques of processing information that were used by novices and experts as they completed 4 oral surgical cases modelled from data obtained from electronic hospital records. We studied 2 phases of an oral surgeon's preoperative practice including the "diagnosis and planning of treatment" and "preparing for a procedure". A framework analysis approach was used to analyse the qualitative data, and a descriptive statistical analysis was made of the quantitative data. The results showed that novice surgeons used hypotheticodeductive reasoning, whereas experts recognised patterns to diagnose and manage patients. Novices provided less detail when they prepared for a procedure. Concepts regarding "signs", "importance", "decisions", and "process" occurred most often during acquisition of information by both novices and experts. Based on these results, we formulated recommendations for the design of clinical information technology that would help to improve the acquisition of clinical information required by oral surgeons at all levels of expertise in their clinical decision-making. Copyright © 2015 The British Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A propensity score matching analysis of the relationship between victim sex and capital juror decision-making in North Carolina.

PubMed

Jennings, Wesley G; Richards, Tara N; Smith, M Dwayne; Bjerregaard, Beth; Fogel, Sondra J

2015-07-01

A small body of prior research has examined the impact of victim sex on jury death penalty decision-making and the majority of this research has demonstrated some evidence of a "female victim effect" such that cases involving a female victim are more likely to receive the death penalty than similarly situated cases with a male victim. However, within this line of research studies have suggested that victim sex may work in conjunction with other case characteristics. In order to further explore this phenomenon, the current study examines a near-population of death penalty cases from North Carolina (n=1069) from 1977-2009 using propensity score matching. Results demonstrate that once cases are matched on more than 50 legal and extralegal case characteristics, there is no statistically significant or substantive link between victim sex and death penalty decision-making. Findings suggest that it is concrete differences in the legal and extralegal factors observed in cases with female victims compared to male victims that shape jury death sentence decisions rather than a direct effect of victim sex (before matching: OR=1.53; 95% CI=1.20-1.95; p<.001/after matching: OR=0.90; 95% CI=0.66-1.24; p=.52). Study limitations and implications are also discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive-psychology expertise and the calculation of the probability of a wrongful conviction.

PubMed

Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wixted, John T; Christenfeld, Nicholas J S

2018-05-08

Cognitive psychologists are familiar with how their expertise in understanding human perception, memory, and decision-making is applicable to the justice system. They may be less familiar with how their expertise in statistical decision-making and their comfort working in noisy real-world environments is just as applicable. Here we show how this expertise in ideal-observer models may be leveraged to calculate the probability of guilt of Gary Leiterman, a man convicted of murder on the basis of DNA evidence. We show by common probability theory that Leiterman is likely a victim of a tragic contamination event rather than a murderer. Making any calculation of the probability of guilt necessarily relies on subjective assumptions. The conclusion about Leiterman's innocence is not overly sensitive to the assumptions-the probability of innocence remains high for a wide range of reasonable assumptions. We note that cognitive psychologists may be well suited to make these calculations because as working scientists they may be comfortable with the role a reasonable degree of subjectivity plays in analysis.

Patient decision making: strategies for diabetes diet adherence intervention.

PubMed

Kavookjian, Jan; Berger, Bruce A; Grimley, Diane M; Villaume, William A; Anderson, Heidi M; Barker, Kenneth N

2005-09-01

Patient self-care is critical in controlling diabetes and its complications. Lack of diet adherence is a particular challenge to effective diabetes intervention. The Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of Change, decision-making theory, and self-efficacy have contributed to successful tailoring of interventions in many target behaviors. The purpose of this study was to develop a diagnostic tool, including TTM measures for the stages of change, decisional balance, and self-efficacy, that pharmacists involved in diabetes intervention can use for patients resistant to a diet regimen. A questionnaire was developed through a literature review, interviews with diabetic patients, an expert panel input, and pretesting. Cross-sectional implementation of the questionnaire among a convenience sample of 193 type 1 and type 2 diabetic patients took place at 4 patient care sites throughout the southeastern United States. Validated measures were used to collect respondent self-report for the TTM variables and for demographic and diabetes history variables. Social desirability was also assessed. Relationships among TTM measures for diet adherence generally replicated those established for other target behaviors. Salient items were identified as potential facilitators (decisional balance pros) or barriers (decisional balance cons and self-efficacy tempting situations) to change. Social desirability exhibited a statistically significant relationship with patient report of diet adherence, with statistically significant differences in mean social desirability across race categories. The TTM measures for the stages of change, decisional balance, and self-efficacy are useful for making decisions on individually tailored interventions for diet adherence, with caution asserted about the potential of diabetes patients to self-report the target behavior in a socially desirable manner. Future research directions, implications, and limitations of the findings are also presented.

Shared decision making interventions for people with mental health conditions.

PubMed

Duncan, Edward; Best, Catherine; Hagen, Suzanne

2010-01-20

One person in every four will suffer from a diagnosable mental health condition during their life course. Such conditions can have a devastating impact on the lives of the individual, their family and society. Increasingly partnership models of mental health care have been advocated and enshrined in international healthcare policy. Shared decision making is one such partnership approach. Shared decision making is a form of patient-provider communication where both parties are acknowledged to bring expertise to the process and work in partnership to make a decision. This is advocated on the basis that patients have a right to self-determination and also in the expectation that it will increase treatment adherence. To assess the effects of provider-, consumer- or carer-directed shared decision making interventions for people of all ages with mental health conditions, on a range of outcomes including: patient satisfaction, clinical outcomes, and health service outcomes. We searched: the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL, The Cochrane Library 2008, Issue 4), MEDLINE (1950 to November 2008), EMBASE (1980 to November 2008), PsycINFO (1967 to November 2008), CINAHL (1982 to November 2008), British Nursing Index and Archive (1985 to November 2008) and SIGLE (1890 to September 2005 (database end date)). We also searched online trial registers and the bibliographies of relevant papers, and contacted authors of included studies. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-randomised controlled trials (q-RCTs), controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs); and interrupted time series (ITS) studies of interventions to increase shared decision making in people with mental health conditions (by DSM or ICD-10 criteria). Data on recruitment methods, eligibility criteria, sample characteristics, interventions, outcome measures, participant flow and outcome data from each study were extracted by one author and checked by another. Data are presented in a narrative synthesis. We included two separate German studies involving a total of 518 participants. One study was undertaken in the inpatient treatment of schizophrenia and the other in the treatment of people newly diagnosed with depression in primary care. Regarding the primary outcomes, one study reported statistically significant increases in patient satisfaction, the other study did not. There was no evidence of effect on clinical outcomes or hospital readmission rates in either study. Regarding secondary outcomes, there was an indication that interventions to increase shared decision making increased doctor facilitation of patient involvement in decision making, and did not increase consultation times. Nor did the interventions increase patient compliance with treatment plans. Neither study reported any harms of the intervention. Definite conclusions cannot be drawn, however, on the basis of these two studies. No firm conclusions can be drawn at present about the effects of shared decision making interventions for people with mental health conditions. There is no evidence of harm, but there is an urgent need for further research in this area.

The pros and cons of funnel plots as an aid to risk communication and patient decision making.

PubMed

Rakow, Tim; Wright, Rebecca J; Spiegelhalter, David J; Bull, Catherine

2015-05-01

Funnel plots, which simultaneously display a sample statistic and the corresponding sample size for multiple cases, have a range of applications. In medicine, they are used to display treatment outcome rates and caseload volume by institution, which can inform strategic decisions about health care delivery. We investigated lay people's understanding of such plots and explored their suitability as an aid to individual treatment decisions. In two studies, 172 participants answered objective questions about funnel plots representing the surgical outcomes (survival or mortality rates) of institutions varying in caseload, and indicated their preferred institutions. Accuracy for extracting objective information was high, unless question phrasing was inconsistent with the plot's survival/mortality framing, or participants had low numeracy levels. Participants integrated caseload-volume and outcome-rate data when forming preferences, but were influenced by reference lines on the plot to make inappropriate discriminations between institutions with similar outcome rates. With careful choice of accompanying language, funnel plots can be readily understood and are therefore a useful tool for communicating risk. However, they are less effective as a decision aid for individual patient's treatment decisions, and we recommend refinements to the standard presentation of the plots if they are to be used for that purpose. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

Machine Learning in the Presence of an Adversary: Attacking and Defending the SpamBayes Spam Filter

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-20

Machine learning techniques are often used for decision making in security critical applications such as intrusion detection and spam filtering...filter. The defenses shown in this thesis are able to work against the attacks developed against SpamBayes and are sufficiently generic to be easily extended into other statistical machine learning algorithms.

Participation in Decision-Making in Class: Opportunities and Student Attitudes in Austria and Slovenia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mithans, Monika; Grmek, Milena Ivanuš; Cagran, Branka

2017-01-01

This article focuses on the issue of student involvement in the education process. The study comprised pupils aged 10-11, 13-14 and 16-17; 322 students were attending school in Austria, and 458 students were in Slovenia. The data were collected through a questionnaire and processed on the level of descriptive and inferential statistics. The right…

A Ray of Light: A Mixed-Methods Approach to Understanding Why Parents Choose Montessori Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zarybnisky, Emily M.

2010-01-01

This study explored why parents choose Montessori schools for their children. Parents from two public (n = 40) and two private (n = 10) Montessori schools responded to a written survey designed to discern what characteristics parents valued in making their decision. Descriptive statistics, t-tests, and chi-square tests were used to understand the…

DRIVE: Drive-Cycle Rapid Investigation, Visualization, and Evaluation

Science.gov Websites

specialized statistical clustering methods. The duration of these representative drive cycles, which aim to , DRIVE can benefit a variety of users. For example: Fleet managers can use the tool to make educated investment decisions by determining, in advance, the payback period for a given technology. Vehicle

Value of Forecaster in the Loop

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

forecast system IFR instrument flight rules IMC instrument meteorological conditions LAMP Localized Aviation Model Output Statistics Program METOC...obtaining valuable experience. Additional factors have impacted the Navy weather forecast process. There has been a the realignment of the meteorology...forecasts that are assessed, it may be a relatively small number that have direct impact on the decision-making process. Whether the value is minimal or

Distributed Decision Making in a Dynamic Network Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-01-01

protocols, particularly when traffic arrival statistics are varying or unknown, and loads are high. Both nonpreemptive and preemptive repeat disciplines are...The simulation model allows general value functions, continuous time operation, and preemptive or nonpreemptive service. For reasons of tractability... nonpreemptive LIFO, (4) nonpreemptive LIFO with discarding, (5) nonpreemptive HOL, (6) nonpreemp- tive HOL with discarding, (7) preemptive repeat HOL, (8

An Investigation into EVAAS Use and Math Placement in Middle Schools in North Carolina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gillespie, Ronald Eugene, Jr.

2014-01-01

In 2007, every district in North Carolina received access to EVAAS (Education Valued-Added Assessment System), a statistical tool designed to give principals a resource to make strong instructional decisions for their schools. The use of EVAAS has now worked its way into state law and its use is mandated in teacher evaluation. However, EVAAS is…

Employee empowerment through team building and use of process control methods.

PubMed

Willems, S

1998-02-01

The article examines the use of statistical process control and performance improvement techniques in employee empowerment. The focus is how these techniques provide employees with information to improve their productivity and become involved in the decision-making process. Findings suggest that at one Mississippi hospital employee improvement has had a positive effect on employee productivity, morale, and quality of work.

Integrated Warfighter Biodefense Program (IWBP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-26

empower the non-statistical subject matter expert to rapidly obtain insight into their data for discovery, forecasting and decision making. LeapWorks...Support for Time Series Pattern discovery in temporal data environments is important for many forecasting types of applications. For example, does the...as well as the forecasting horizon for the purposes of patterns discovery. Beta Testing During the period of performance for this report

Building flexible real-time systems using the Flex language

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenny, Kevin B.; Lin, Kwei-Jay

1991-01-01

The design and implementation of a real-time programming language called Flex, which is a derivative of C++, are presented. It is shown how different types of timing requirements might be expressed and enforced in Flex, how they might be fulfilled in a flexible way using different program models, and how the programming environment can help in making binding and scheduling decisions. The timing constraint primitives in Flex are easy to use yet powerful enough to define both independent and relative timing constraints. Program models like imprecise computation and performance polymorphism can carry out flexible real-time programs. In addition, programmers can use a performance measurement tool that produces statistically correct timing models to predict the expected execution time of a program and to help make binding decisions. A real-time programming environment is also presented.

Less is more: The availability heuristic in early childhood.

PubMed

Geurten, Marie; Willems, Sylvie; Germain, Sophie; Meulemans, Thierry

2015-11-01

This study examined whether young children are influenced by the subjective experience associated with an easy or difficult recall when making memory decisions. Seventy-one children, aged 4, 6, and 8 years, were asked to generate either a small (easy condition) or large (hard condition) number of first names. Statistical analyses revealed that participants in the hard condition were more likely to infer that they did not know many names than participants in the easy condition, contrary to what would be expected if children based their memory judgement on the objective number of recalled items. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that children as young as 4 years old rely on the subjective experience of ease to regulate their decision-making processes. Theoretical implications of these findings are discussed. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: a challenge for forensic practice.

PubMed

Cooke, David J; Michie, Christine

2010-08-01

Knowledge of group tendencies may not assist accurate predictions in the individual case. This has importance for forensic decision making and for the assessment tools routinely applied in forensic evaluations. In this article, we applied Monte Carlo methods to examine diagnostic agreement with different levels of inter-rater agreement given the distributional characteristics of PCL-R scores. Diagnostic agreement and score agreement were substantially less than expected. In addition, we examined the confidence intervals associated with individual predictions of violent recidivism. On the basis of empirical findings, statistical theory, and logic, we conclude that predictions of future offending cannot be achieved in the individual case with any degree of confidence. We discuss the problems identified in relation to the PCL-R in terms of the broader relevance to all instruments used in forensic decision making.

Failures of reproduction: problematising 'success' in assisted reproductive technology.

PubMed

Peters, Kathleen; Jackson, Debra; Rudge, Trudy

2007-06-01

This paper scrutinises the many ways in which 'success' is portrayed in representing assisted reproductive technology (ART) services and illuminates how these definitions differ from those held by participant couples. A qualitative approach informed by feminist perspectives guided this study and aimed to problematise the concept of 'success' by examining literature from ART clinics, government reports on ART, and by analysing narratives of couples who have accessed ART services. As many ART services have varying definitions of 'success' and as statistics are manipulated to promote further patronage of ART services, the likelihood of 'success' is often overstated. This paper is concerned with the effects this promotion has on the participants. We suggest that this very mobilisation of statistical success changes the ability of those who access ART services to make productive decisions about themselves inside these treatment regimes, as the basis for decision-making is hidden by the way numbers, objectivity and clinical reasoning operate to maintain participation in the program. In such an operation, the powerful mix of hope and technology kept participants enrolled far longer than they originally planned. Moreover, how success rates are manipulated raises ethical issues for all involved: clients, counsellors, and nursing and medical professionals.

Improving decision making in crisis.

PubMed

Higgins, Guy; Freedman, Jennifer

2013-01-01

The most critical activity during emergencies or crises is making decisions about what to do next. This paper provides insights into the challenges that people face in making decisions at any time, but particularly during emergencies and crises. It also introduces the reader to the concept of different sense-making/decision-making domains, the human behaviours that can adversely affect decision making - decision derailers - and ways in which emergency responders can leverage this knowledge to make better decisions. While the literature on decision making is extensive, this paper is focused on those aspects that apply particularly to decision making in emergencies or times of crisis.

The ideas about advanced life support and affecting factors at the end-stage of life in a hospital in Turkey.

PubMed

Albayrak, Turgay; Şencan, İrfan; Akça, Ömer; Koç, Esra Meltem; Aksoy, Hilal; Ünsal, Selim; Bülbül, İskender; Bahadır, Adem; Kasım, İsmail; Kahveci, Rabia; Özkara, Adem

2017-01-01

The participation of the people in health decisions may be structured in various levels. One of these is participation in decisions for the treatment. "Advanced directives" is one of the examples for the participation in decisions for the treatment. We wanted to determine the decisions on advanced life support at the end-stage of life in case of a life-threatening illness for the people themselves and their first degree relatives and the factors effecting these decisions. The cross-sectional study was conducted with volunteers among patients and patient relatives who applied to all polyclinics of the Ankara Numune Training and Research Hospital except the emergency, oncology and psychiatry polyclinics between 15.12.2012 and 15.03.2013. A questionnaire, the Hospital Anxiety Depression (HAD) scale, and Templer's Death Anxiety Scale (TDA) were applied to all individuals. SPSS for Win. Ver. 17.0 and MS-Excel 2010 Starter software bundles were used for all statistical analysis and calculations. The participants want both themselves and their first degree relatives included in end-stage decision-making process. Therefore, the patients and their families should be informed adequately during decision making process and quality communication must be provided. Participants who have given their end-stage decisions previously want to be treated according to these decisions. This desire can just be possible by advanced directives.When moral and material loads of end-stage process are taken into consideration, countries, in which advanced directives are practiced, should be examined well and participants' desire should be evaluated in terms of practicability.

Effect of decision aid for breast cancer prevention on decisional conflict in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation: a multisite, randomized, controlled trial.

PubMed

Metcalfe, Kelly A; Dennis, Cindy-Lee; Poll, Aletta; Armel, Susan; Demsky, Rochelle; Carlsson, Lindsay; Nanda, Sonia; Kiss, Alexander; Narod, Steven A

2017-03-01

Women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation are at high risk for breast cancer and must make important decisions about breast cancer prevention and screening. In the current study, we report a multisite, randomized, controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a decision aid for breast cancer prevention in women with a BRCA mutation with no previous diagnosis of cancer. Within 1 month of receiving a positive BRCA result, women were randomized to receive either usual care (control group) or decision aid (intervention group). Participants were followed at 3, 6, and 12 months; were asked about preventive measures; and completed standardized questionnaires assessing decision making and psychosocial functioning. One hundred fifty women were randomized. Mean cancer-related distress scores were significantly lower in the intervention group compared with the control group at 6 months (P = 0.01) and at 12 months postrandomization (P = 0.05). Decisional conflict scores declined over time for both groups and at no time were there statistical differences between the two groups. The decision aid for breast cancer prevention in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation is effective in significantly decreasing cancer-related distress within the year following receipt of positive genetic test results.Genet Med 19 3, 330-336.

Statistical physics of human beings in games: Controlled experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Yuan; Huang, Ji-Ping

2014-07-01

It is important to know whether the laws or phenomena in statistical physics for natural systems with non-adaptive agents still hold for social human systems with adaptive agents, because this implies whether it is possible to study or understand social human systems by using statistical physics originating from natural systems. For this purpose, we review the role of human adaptability in four kinds of specific human behaviors, namely, normal behavior, herd behavior, contrarian behavior, and hedge behavior. The approach is based on controlled experiments in the framework of market-directed resource-allocation games. The role of the controlled experiments could be at least two-fold: adopting the real human decision-making process so that the system under consideration could reflect the performance of genuine human beings; making it possible to obtain macroscopic physical properties of a human system by tuning a particular factor of the system, thus directly revealing cause and effect. As a result, both computer simulations and theoretical analyses help to show a few counterparts of some laws or phenomena in statistical physics for social human systems: two-phase phenomena or phase transitions, entropy-related phenomena, and a non-equilibrium steady state. This review highlights the role of human adaptability in these counterparts, and makes it possible to study or understand some particular social human systems by means of statistical physics coming from natural systems.

Eye Movements in Risky Choice

PubMed Central

Hermens, Frouke; Matthews, William J.

2015-01-01

Abstract We asked participants to make simple risky choices while we recorded their eye movements. We built a complete statistical model of the eye movements and found very little systematic variation in eye movements over the time course of a choice or across the different choices. The only exceptions were finding more (of the same) eye movements when choice options were similar, and an emerging gaze bias in which people looked more at the gamble they ultimately chose. These findings are inconsistent with prospect theory, the priority heuristic, or decision field theory. However, the eye movements made during a choice have a large relationship with the final choice, and this is mostly independent from the contribution of the actual attribute values in the choice options. That is, eye movements tell us not just about the processing of attribute values but also are independently associated with choice. The pattern is simple—people choose the gamble they look at more often, independently of the actual numbers they see—and this pattern is simpler than predicted by decision field theory, decision by sampling, and the parallel constraint satisfaction model. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:27522985

Decision-making in nursing practice: An integrative literature review.

PubMed

Nibbelink, Christine W; Brewer, Barbara B

2018-03-01

To identify and summarise factors and processes related to registered nurses' patient care decision-making in medical-surgical environments. A secondary goal of this literature review was to determine whether medical-surgical decision-making literature included factors that appeared to be similar to concepts and factors in naturalistic decision making (NDM). Decision-making in acute care nursing requires an evaluation of many complex factors. While decision-making research in acute care nursing is prevalent, errors in decision-making continue to lead to poor patient outcomes. Naturalistic decision making may provide a framework for further exploring decision-making in acute care nursing practice. A better understanding of the literature is needed to guide future research to more effectively support acute care nurse decision-making. PubMed and CINAHL databases were searched, and research meeting criteria was included. Data were identified from all included articles, and themes were developed based on these data. Key findings in this review include nursing experience and associated factors; organisation and unit culture influences on decision-making; education; understanding patient status; situation awareness; and autonomy. Acute care nurses employ a variety of decision-making factors and processes and informally identify experienced nurses to be important resources for decision-making. Incorporation of evidence into acute care nursing practice continues to be a struggle for acute care nurses. This review indicates that naturalistic decision making may be applicable to decision-making nursing research. Experienced nurses bring a broad range of previous patient encounters to their practice influencing their intuitive, unconscious processes which facilitates decision-making. Using naturalistic decision making as a conceptual framework to guide research may help with understanding how to better support less experienced nurses' decision-making for enhanced patient outcomes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shared Decision-Making in the Management of Congenital Vascular Malformations.

PubMed

Horbach, Sophie E R; Ubbink, Dirk T; Stubenrouch, Fabienne E; Koelemay, Mark J W; van der Vleuten, Carine J M; Verhoeven, Bas H; Reekers, Jim A; Schultze Kool, Leo J; van der Horst, Chantal M A M

2017-03-01

In shared decision-making, clinicians and patients arrive at a joint treatment decision, by incorporating best available evidence and the patients' personal values and preferences. Little is known about the role of shared decision-making in managing patients with congenital vascular malformations, for which preference-sensitive decision-making seems obvious. The authors investigated preferences regarding decision-making and current shared decision-making behavior during physician-patient encounters. In two Dutch university hospitals, adults and children with congenital vascular malformations facing a treatment-related decision were enrolled. Before the consultation, patients (or parents of children) expressed their preference regarding decision-making (Control Preferences Scale). Afterward, participants completed shared decision-making-specific questionnaires (nine-item Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire, CollaboRATE, and satisfaction), and physicians completed the Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire-Physician questionnaire. Consultations were audiotaped and patient involvement was scored by two independent researchers using the five-item Observing Patient Involvement instrument. All questionnaire results were expressed on a scale of 0 to 100 (optimum shared decision-making). Fifty-five participants (24 parents and 31 adult patients) were included. Two-thirds preferred the shared decision-making approach (Control Preferences Scale). Objective five-item Observing Patient Involvement scores were low (mean ± SD, 31 ± 15), whereas patient and physician Shared Decision-Making Questionnaire scores were high, with means of 68 ± 18 and 68 ± 19, respectively. The median CollaboRATE score was 93. There was no clear relationship between shared decision-making and satisfaction scores. Although adults and parents of children with vascular malformations express a strong desire for shared decision-making, objective shared decision-making behavior is still lacking, most likely because of poor awareness of the shared decision-making concept among patients, parents, and physicians. To improve shared decision-making practice, targeted interventions (e.g., decision aids, staff training) are essential.

Decision Making on the Labor and Delivery Unit: An Investigation of Influencing Factors.

PubMed

Gregory, Megan E; Sonesh, Shirley C; Feitosa, Jennifer; Benishek, Lauren E; Hughes, Ashley M; Salas, Eduardo

2017-09-01

Objective The aim of this study was to describe the relationship between negative affect (NA), decision-making style, time stress, and decision quality in health care. Background Health care providers must often make swift, high-stakes decisions. Influencing factors of the decision-making process in this context have been understudied. Method Within a sample of labor and delivery nurses, physicians, and allied personnel, we used self-report measures to examine the impact of trait factors, including NA, decision-making style, and perceived time stress, on decision quality in a situational judgment test (Study 1). In Study 2, we observed the influence of state NA, state decision-making style, state time stress, and their relationship with decision quality on real clinical decisions. Results In Study 1, we found that trait NA significantly predicted avoidant decision-making style. Furthermore, those who were higher on trait time stress and trait avoidant decision-making style exhibited poorer decisions. In Study 2, we observed associations between state NA with state avoidant and analytical decision-making styles. We also observed that these decision-making styles, when considered in tandem with time stress, were influential in predicting clinical decision quality. Conclusion NA predicts some decision-making styles, and decision-making style can affect decision quality under time stress. This is particularly true for state factors. Application Individual differences, such as affect and decision-making style, should be considered during selection. Training to reduce time stress perceptions should be provided.

Patients’ Non-Medical Characteristics Contribute to Collective Medical Decision-Making at Multidisciplinary Oncological Team Meetings

PubMed Central

Restivo, Léa; Apostolidis, Thémis; Bouhnik, Anne-Déborah; Garciaz, Sylvain; Aurran, Thérèse; Julian-Reynier, Claire

2016-01-01

Background The contribution of patients’ non-medical characteristics to individual physicians’ decision-making has attracted considerable attention, but little information is available on this topic in the context of collective decision-making. Medical decision-making at cancer centres is currently carried out using a collective approach, at MultiDisciplinary Team (MDT) meetings. The aim of this study was to determine how patients’ non-medical characteristics are presented at MDT meetings and how this information may affect the team’s final medical decisions. Design Observations were conducted at a French Cancer Centre during MDT meetings at which non-standard cases involving some uncertainty were discussed from March to May 2014. Physicians’ verbal statements and predefined contextual parameters were collected with a non-participant observational approach. Non numerical data collected in the form of open notes were then coded for quantitative analysis. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses were performed. Results In the final sample of patients’ records included and discussed (N = 290), non-medical characteristics were mentioned in 32.8% (n = 95) of the cases. These characteristics corresponded to demographics in 22.8% (n = 66) of the cases, psychological data in 11.7% (n = 34), and relational data in 6.2% (n = 18). The patient’s age and his/her “likeability” were the most frequently mentioned characteristics. In 17.9% of the cases discussed, the final decision was deferred: this outcome was positively associated with the patients’ non-medical characteristics and with uncertainty about the outcome of the therapeutic options available. Limitations The design of the study made it difficult to draw definite cause-and-effect conclusions. Conclusion The Social Representations approach suggests that patients’ non-medical characteristics constitute a kind of tacit professional knowledge that may be frequently mobilised in physicians’ everyday professional practice. The links observed between patients’ attributes and the medical decisions made at these meetings show that these attributes should be taken into account in order to understand how medical decisions are reached in difficult situations of this kind. PMID:27167521

Barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a paediatric hospital: A descriptive study.

PubMed

Boland, Laura; McIsaac, Daniel I; Lawson, Margaret L

2016-04-01

To explore multiple stakeholders' perceived barriers to and facilitators of implementing shared decision making and decision support in a tertiary paediatric hospital. An interpretive descriptive qualitative study was conducted using focus groups and interviews to examine senior hospital administrators', clinicians', parents' and youths' perceived barriers to and facilitators of shared decision making and decision support implementation. Data were analyzed using inductive thematic analysis. Fifty-seven stakeholders participated. Six barrier and facilitator themes emerged. The main barrier was gaps in stakeholders' knowledge of shared decision making and decision support. Facilitators included compatibility between shared decision making and the hospital's culture and ideal practices, perceptions of positive patient and family outcomes associated with shared decision making, and positive attitudes regarding shared decision making and decision support. However, youth attitudes regarding the necessity and usefulness of a decision support program were a barrier. Two themes were both a barrier and a facilitator. First, stakeholder groups were uncertain which clinical situations are suitable for shared decision making (eg, new diagnoses, chronic illnesses, complex decisions or urgent decisions). Second, the clinical process may be hindered if shared decision making and decision support decrease efficiency and workflow; however, shared decision making may reduce repeat visits and save time over the long term. Specific knowledge translation strategies that improve shared decision making knowledge and match specific barriers identified by each stakeholder group may be required to promote successful shared decision making and decision support implementation in the authors' paediatric hospital.

An inferentialist perspective on the coordination of actions and reasons involved in making a statistical inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Arthur; Ben-Zvi, Dani; Makar, Katie

2017-12-01

To understand how statistical and other types of reasoning are coordinated with actions to reduce uncertainty, we conducted a case study in vocational education that involved statistical hypothesis testing. We analyzed an intern's research project in a hospital laboratory in which reducing uncertainties was crucial to make a valid statistical inference. In his project, the intern, Sam, investigated whether patients' blood could be sent through pneumatic post without influencing the measurement of particular blood components. We asked, in the process of making a statistical inference, how are reasons and actions coordinated to reduce uncertainty? For the analysis, we used the semantic theory of inferentialism, specifically, the concept of webs of reasons and actions—complexes of interconnected reasons for facts and actions; these reasons include premises and conclusions, inferential relations, implications, motives for action, and utility of tools for specific purposes in a particular context. Analysis of interviews with Sam, his supervisor and teacher as well as video data of Sam in the classroom showed that many of Sam's actions aimed to reduce variability, rule out errors, and thus reduce uncertainties so as to arrive at a valid inference. Interestingly, the decisive factor was not the outcome of a t test but of the reference change value, a clinical chemical measure of analytic and biological variability. With insights from this case study, we expect that students can be better supported in connecting statistics with context and in dealing with uncertainty.

Inhomogeneity of the density of Parascaris spp. eggs in faeces of individual foals and the use of hypothesis testing for treatment decision making.

PubMed

Wilkes, E J A; Cowling, A; Woodgate, R G; Hughes, K J

2016-10-15

Faecal egg counts (FEC) are used widely for monitoring of parasite infection in animals, treatment decision-making and estimation of anthelmintic efficacy. When a single count or sample mean is used as a point estimate of the expectation of the egg distribution over some time interval, the variability in the egg density is not accounted for. Although variability, including quantifying sources, of egg count data has been described, the spatiotemporal distribution of nematode eggs in faeces is not well understood. We believe that statistical inference about the mean egg count for treatment decision-making has not been used previously. The aim of this study was to examine the density of Parascaris eggs in solution and faeces and to describe the use of hypothesis testing for decision-making. Faeces from two foals with Parascaris burdens were mixed with magnesium sulphate solution and 30 McMaster chambers were examined to determine the egg distribution in a well-mixed solution. To examine the distribution of eggs in faeces from an individual animal, three faecal piles from a foal with a known Parascaris burden were obtained, from which 81 counts were performed. A single faecal sample was also collected daily from 20 foals on three consecutive days and a FEC was performed on three separate portions of each sample. As appropriate, Poisson or negative binomial confidence intervals for the distribution mean were calculated. Parascaris eggs in a well-mixed solution conformed to a homogeneous Poisson process, while the egg density in faeces was not homogeneous, but aggregated. This study provides an extension from homogeneous to inhomogeneous Poisson processes, leading to an understanding of why Poisson and negative binomial distributions correspondingly provide a good fit for egg count data. The application of one-sided hypothesis tests for decision-making is presented. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated Bayesian models of learning and decision making for saccadic eye movements.

PubMed

Brodersen, Kay H; Penny, Will D; Harrison, Lee M; Daunizeau, Jean; Ruff, Christian C; Duzel, Emrah; Friston, Karl J; Stephan, Klaas E

2008-11-01

The neurophysiology of eye movements has been studied extensively, and several computational models have been proposed for decision-making processes that underlie the generation of eye movements towards a visual stimulus in a situation of uncertainty. One class of models, known as linear rise-to-threshold models, provides an economical, yet broadly applicable, explanation for the observed variability in the latency between the onset of a peripheral visual target and the saccade towards it. So far, however, these models do not account for the dynamics of learning across a sequence of stimuli, and they do not apply to situations in which subjects are exposed to events with conditional probabilities. In this methodological paper, we extend the class of linear rise-to-threshold models to address these limitations. Specifically, we reformulate previous models in terms of a generative, hierarchical model, by combining two separate sub-models that account for the interplay between learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials. We derive a maximum-likelihood scheme for parameter estimation as well as model comparison on the basis of log likelihood ratios. The utility of the integrated model is demonstrated by applying it to empirical saccade data acquired from three healthy subjects. Model comparison is used (i) to show that eye movements do not only reflect marginal but also conditional probabilities of target locations, and (ii) to reveal subject-specific learning profiles over trials. These individual learning profiles are sufficiently distinct that test samples can be successfully mapped onto the correct subject by a naïve Bayes classifier. Altogether, our approach extends the class of linear rise-to-threshold models of saccadic decision making, overcomes some of their previous limitations, and enables statistical inference both about learning of target locations across trials and the decision-making process within trials.

Justice and care: decision making by medical school student Promotions Committees

PubMed Central

Green, Emily P.; Gruppuso, Philip A.

2017-01-01

CONTEXT The function of medical school entities that determine student advancement or dismissal has gone largely unexplored. Decision making of “academic progress” or student promotions committees is examined using a theoretical framework contrasting ethics of justice and care, with roots in the moral development work of theorists Kohlberg and Gilligan. OBJECTIVES To ascertain promotions committee members’ conceptualization of the role of their committee, ethical orientations used in member decision making, and student characteristics most influential to that decision making. METHODS An electronic survey was distributed to voting members of promotions committees at 143 accredited allopathic medical schools in the U.S. Descriptive statistics were calculated and data were analyzed by gender, role, institution type and class size. RESULTS Respondents included 241 voting members of promotions committees at 55 medical schools. Respondents endorsed various promotions committee roles, including acting in the best interest of learners’ future patients and graduating highly qualified learners. Implementing policy was assigned lower importance. The overall pattern of responses did not indicate a predominant orientation toward an ethic of justice or care. Respondents indicated that committees have discretion to take individual student characteristics into consideration during deliberations, and that they do so in practice. Among the student characteristics with the greatest influence on decision making, professionalism and academic performance were paramount. Eighty-five percent of participants indicated that they received no training. CONCLUSIONS Promotions committee members do not regard orientations of justice and care as being mutually exclusive, and endorse an array of statements regarding committee purpose that may conflict with one another. The considerable variance in the influence of student characteristics, and the general absence of committee member training, indicate a need for clear delineation of the medical profession’s priorities in terms of justice and care, and of the specific student characteristics that should factor into deliberations. PMID:28488300

Justice and care: decision making by medical school student promotions committees.

PubMed

Green, Emily P; Gruppuso, Philip A

2017-06-01

The function of medical school entities that determine student advancement or dismissal has gone largely unexplored. The decision making of 'academic progress' or student promotions committees is examined using a theoretical framework contrasting ethics of justice and care, with roots in the moral development work of theorists Kohlberg and Gilligan. To ascertain promotions committee members' conceptualisation of the role of their committee, ethical orientations used in member decision making, and student characteristics most influential in that decision making. An electronic survey was distributed to voting members of promotions committees at 143 accredited allopathic medical schools in the USA. Descriptive statistics were calculated and data were analysed by gender, role, institution type and class size. Respondents included 241 voting members of promotions committees at 55 medical schools. Respondents endorsed various promotions committee roles, including acting in the best interest of learners' future patients and graduating highly qualified learners. Implementing policy was assigned lower importance. The overall pattern of responses did not indicate a predominant orientation toward an ethic of justice or care. Respondents indicated that committees have discretion to take individual student characteristics into consideration during deliberations, and that they do so in practice. Among the student characteristics with the greatest influence on decision making, professionalism and academic performance were paramount. Eighty-five per cent of participants indicated that they received no training. Promotions committee members do not regard orientations of justice and care as being mutually exclusive and endorse an array of statements regarding the committee's purpose that may conflict with one another. The considerable variance in the influence of student characteristics and the general absence of committee member training indicate a need for clear delineation of the medical profession's priorities in terms of justice and care, and of the specific student characteristics that should factor into deliberations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and The Association for the Study of Medical Education.

Developing a conceptual model for the application of patient and public involvement in the healthcare system in Iran.

PubMed

Azmal, Mohammad; Sari, Ali Akbari; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi; Ahmadi, Batoul

2016-06-01

Patient and public involvement is engaging patients, providers, community representatives, and the public in healthcare planning and decision-making. The purpose of this study was to develop a model for the application of patient and public involvement in decision making in the Iranian healthcare system. A mixed qualitative-quantitative approach was used to develop a conceptual model. Thirty three key informants were purposely recruited in the qualitative stage, and 420 people (patients and their companions) were included in a protocol study that was implemented in five steps: 1) Identifying antecedents, consequences, and variables associated with the patient and the publics' involvement in healthcare decision making through a comprehensive literature review; 2) Determining the main variables in the context of Iran's health system using conceptual framework analysis; 3) Prioritizing and weighting variables by Shannon entropy; 4) designing and validating a tool for patient and public involvement in healthcare decision making; and 5) Providing a conceptual model of patient and the public involvement in planning and developing healthcare using structural equation modeling. We used various software programs, including SPSS (17), Max QDA (10), EXCEL, and LISREL. Content analysis, Shannon entropy, and descriptive and analytic statistics were used to analyze the data. In this study, seven antecedents variable, five dimensions of involvement, and six consequences were identified. These variables were used to design a valid tool. A logical model was derived that explained the logical relationships between antecedent and consequent variables and the dimensions of patient and public involvement as well. Given the specific context of the political, social, and innovative environments in Iran, it was necessary to design a model that would be compatible with these features. It can improve the quality of care and promote the patient and the public satisfaction with healthcare and legitimate the representative of people they served for. This model can provide a practical guide for managers and policy makers to involve people in making the decisions that influence their lives.

When decision heuristics and science collide.

PubMed

Yu, Erica C; Sprenger, Amber M; Thomas, Rick P; Dougherty, Michael R

2014-04-01

The ongoing discussion among scientists about null-hypothesis significance testing and Bayesian data analysis has led to speculation about the practices and consequences of "researcher degrees of freedom." This article advances this debate by asking the broader questions that we, as scientists, should be asking: How do scientists make decisions in the course of doing research, and what is the impact of these decisions on scientific conclusions? We asked practicing scientists to collect data in a simulated research environment, and our findings show that some scientists use data collection heuristics that deviate from prescribed methodology. Monte Carlo simulations show that data collection heuristics based on p values lead to biases in estimated effect sizes and Bayes factors and to increases in both false-positive and false-negative rates, depending on the specific heuristic. We also show that using Bayesian data collection methods does not eliminate these biases. Thus, our study highlights the little appreciated fact that the process of doing science is a behavioral endeavor that can bias statistical description and inference in a manner that transcends adherence to any particular statistical framework.

Decision-making on shared sanitation in the informal settlements of Kisumu, Kenya.

PubMed

Simiyu, Sheillah; Swilling, Mark; Cairncross, Sandy

2017-10-01

Unlike most quantitative studies that investigate decision-making on investing in sanitation, this study adopted a qualitative approach to investigate decision-making on shared sanitation in the informal settlements of Kisumu city, in Kenya. Using a grounded theory approach, landlords and tenants were interviewed to identify sanitation decisions, individuals involved in decision-making and factors influencing decision-making. The results indicate that the main sanitation decisions are on investment, emptying, repair and cleaning. Landlords make investment, emptying and repair decisions, while tenants make cleaning decisions. Absentee landlords are less involved in most decision-making compared to live-in landlords, who rarely consult tenants in decision-making. Tenants make decisions after consultations with a third party and often collectively with other tenants. Sanitation interventions in informal settlements should thus, target landlords and tenants, with investment efforts being directed at landlords and maintenance efforts at tenants.

The impact of regional culture on intensive care end of life decision making: an Israeli perspective from the ETHICUS study.

PubMed

Ganz, F D; Benbenishty, J; Hersch, M; Fischer, A; Gurman, G; Sprung, C L

2006-04-01

Decisions of patients, families, and health care providers about medical care at the end of life depend on many factors, including the societal culture. A pan-European study was conducted to determine the frequency and types of end of life practices in European intensive care units (ICUs), including those in Israel. Several results of the Israeli subsample were different to those of the overall sample. The objective of this article was to explore these differences and provide a possible explanation based on the impact of culture on end of life decision making. All adult patients admitted consecutively to three Israeli ICUs (n = 2778) who died or underwent any limitation of life saving interventions between 1 January 1999 and 30 June 2000 were studied prospectively (n = 363). These patients were compared with a similar sample taken from the larger study (ethics in European intensive care units: ETHICUS) carried out in 37 European ICUs. Patients were followed until discharge, death, or 2 months from the decision to limit therapy. End of life decisions were prospectively organised into one of five mutually exclusive categories: cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), brain death, withholding treatment, withdrawing treatment, and active shortening of the dying process (SDP). The data also included patient characteristics (gender, age, ICU admission diagnosis, chronic disorders, date of hospital admission, date and time of decision to limit therapy, date of hospital discharge, date and time of death in hospital), specific therapies limited, and the method of SDP. The majority of patients (n = 252, 69%) had treatment withheld, none underwent SDP, 62 received CPR (17%), 31 had brain death (9%), and 18 underwent withdrawal of treatment (5%). The primary reason given for limiting treatment was that the patient was unresponsive to therapy (n = 187). End of life discussions were held with 132 families (36%), the vast majority of which revolved around withholding treatment (91% of the discussions) and the remainder concerned withdrawing treatment (n = 11, 9%). There was a statistically significant association (chi2 = 830.93, df = 12, p < 0.0001) between the type of end of life decision and region-that is, the northern region of Europe, the central region, the southern region, and Israel. Regional culture plays an important part in end of life decision making. Differences relating to end of life decision making exist between regions and these differences can often be attributed to cultural factors. Such cultures not only affect patients and their families but also the health care workers who make and carry out such decisions.

How Statisticians Speak Risk

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Redus, K.S.

2007-07-01

The foundation of statistics deals with (a) how to measure and collect data and (b) how to identify models using estimates of statistical parameters derived from the data. Risk is a term used by the statistical community and those that employ statistics to express the results of a statistically based study. Statistical risk is represented as a probability that, for example, a statistical model is sufficient to describe a data set; but, risk is also interpreted as a measure of worth of one alternative when compared to another. The common thread of any risk-based problem is the combination of (a)more » the chance an event will occur, with (b) the value of the event. This paper presents an introduction to, and some examples of, statistical risk-based decision making from a quantitative, visual, and linguistic sense. This should help in understanding areas of radioactive waste management that can be suitably expressed using statistical risk and vice-versa. (authors)« less

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

PubMed

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Decision Making and Electrodermal Activity].

PubMed

Kobayakawa, Mutsutaka

2016-08-01

Decision making is aided by emotions. Bodily responses, such as sweating, heartbeat, and visceral sensation, are used to monitor the emotional state during decision making. Because decision making in dairy life is complicated and cognitively demanding, these bodily signals are thought to facilitate the decision making process by assigning positive or negative values for each of the behavioral options. The sweat response in a decision making task is measured by skin conductance response (SCR). SCR in decision making is divided into two categories: anticipatory SCR is observed before making decisions, and reward/punishment SCR is observed after the outcome of the decision is perceived. Brain lesion studies in human revealed that the amygdala and ventromedial prefrontal cortex are important in decision making. Patients with lesinon in the amygdala exhibit neither the anticipatory nor reward/punishment SCRs, while patients with the ventromedial prefrontal lesions have deficits only in the anticipatory SCRs. Decision making tasks and SCR analysis have contributed to reveal the implicit aspects of decision making. Further research is necessary for clarifying the role of explicit process of decision making and its relationship with the implicit process.

Enhancing the value delivered by the statistician throughout drug discovery and development: putting statistical science into regulated pharmaceutical innovation.

PubMed

Enas, G G; Andersen, J S

With the dawn of the 21st century, the pharmaceutical industry faces a dramatically different constellation of business and scientific predictors of success than those of just a few years ago. Significant advances in science at the genetic, molecular and cellular levels, combined with progress demonstrated around the globe with drug regulations, have increased business and competitive opportunities. This has occurred in search of better and cheaper medicines that reach patients with unmet medical needs as quickly as possible. Herein lie new opportunities for those who can help business and regulatory leaders make good decisions about drug development and market authorization as quickly and efficiently as possible in the presence of uncertainty. The statistician is uniquely trained and qualified to render such value. We show how the statistician can contribute to the process of drug innovation from the very early stages of drug discovery until patients, payers and regulators are satisfied. Indeed, the very nature of regulated innovation demands that efficient and effective processes are implemented which yield the right information for good decision making. The statistician can take the lead in setting a strategy that directs such processes in the direction of greatest value. This demands skills that enable one to identify important sources of variability and uncertainty and then leverage those skills to make decisions. If such decisions call for more information, then the statistician can render experimental designs which generate the right information needed to make the decision in an efficient, timely manner. To add value to the enterprise, statisticians will have to become more intimately associated with business and regulatory decisions by building on their traditional roles (for example, numerical analyst, tactician) and unique skill sets (for example, analysis, computation, logical thought and work process, precision, accuracy). Business and regulatory savvy, coupled with excellent communication and interpersonal skills, will allow statisticians to help create the knowledge needed to drive success in the future. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.