Statistical significance of trace evidence matches using independent physicochemical measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almirall, Jose R.; Cole, Michael; Furton, Kenneth G.; Gettinby, George

1997-02-01

A statistical approach to the significance of glass evidence is proposed using independent physicochemical measurements and chemometrics. Traditional interpretation of the significance of trace evidence matches or exclusions relies on qualitative descriptors such as 'indistinguishable from,' 'consistent with,' 'similar to' etc. By performing physical and chemical measurements with are independent of one another, the significance of object exclusions or matches can be evaluated statistically. One of the problems with this approach is that the human brain is excellent at recognizing and classifying patterns and shapes but performs less well when that object is represented by a numerical list of attributes. Chemometrics can be employed to group similar objects using clustering algorithms and provide statistical significance in a quantitative manner. This approach is enhanced when population databases exist or can be created and the data in question can be evaluated given these databases. Since the selection of the variables used and their pre-processing can greatly influence the outcome, several different methods could be employed in order to obtain a more complete picture of the information contained in the data. Presently, we report on the analysis of glass samples using refractive index measurements and the quantitative analysis of the concentrations of the metals: Mg, Al, Ca, Fe, Mn, Ba, Sr, Ti and Zr. The extension of this general approach to fiber and paint comparisons also is discussed. This statistical approach should not replace the current interpretative approaches to trace evidence matches or exclusions but rather yields an additional quantitative measure. The lack of sufficient general population databases containing the needed physicochemical measurements and the potential for confusion arising from statistical analysis currently hamper this approach and ways of overcoming these obstacles are presented.

Screening for depressive symptoms in adolescents at school: New validity evidences on the short form of the Reynolds Depression Scale.

PubMed

Ortuño-Sierra, Javier; Aritio-Solana, Rebeca; Inchausti, Félix; Chocarro de Luis, Edurne; Lucas Molina, Beatriz; Pérez de Albéniz, Alicia; Fonseca-Pedrero, Eduardo

2017-01-01

The main purpose of the present study was to assess the depressive symptomatology and to gather new validity evidences of the Reynolds Depression Scale-Short form (RADS-SF) in a representative sample of youths. The sample consisted of 2914 adolescents with a mean age of 15.85 years (SD = 1.68). We calculated the descriptive statistics and internal consistency of the RADS-SF scores. Also, confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) at the item level and successive multigroup CFAs to test measurement invariance, were conducted. Latent mean differences across gender and educational level groups were estimated, and finally, we studied the sources of validity evidences with other external variables. The level of internal consistency of the RADS-SF Total score by means of Ordinal alpha was .89. Results from CFAs showed that the one-dimensional model displayed appropriate goodness of-fit indices with CFI value over .95, and RMSEA value under .08. In addition, the results support the strong measurement invariance of the RADS-SF scores across gender and age. When latent means were compared, statistically significant differences were found by gender and age. Females scored 0.347 over than males in Depression latent variable, whereas older adolescents scored 0.111 higher than the younger group. In addition, the RADS-SF score was associated with the RADS scores. The results suggest that the RADS-SF could be used as an efficient screening test to assess self-reported depressive symptoms in adolescents from the general population.

Statistical Evaluation of Biometric Evidence in Forensic Automatic Speaker Recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drygajlo, Andrzej

Forensic speaker recognition is the process of determining if a specific individual (suspected speaker) is the source of a questioned voice recording (trace). This paper aims at presenting forensic automatic speaker recognition (FASR) methods that provide a coherent way of quantifying and presenting recorded voice as biometric evidence. In such methods, the biometric evidence consists of the quantified degree of similarity between speaker-dependent features extracted from the trace and speaker-dependent features extracted from recorded speech of a suspect. The interpretation of recorded voice as evidence in the forensic context presents particular challenges, including within-speaker (within-source) variability and between-speakers (between-sources) variability. Consequently, FASR methods must provide a statistical evaluation which gives the court an indication of the strength of the evidence given the estimated within-source and between-sources variabilities. This paper reports on the first ENFSI evaluation campaign through a fake case, organized by the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI), as an example, where an automatic method using the Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) and the Bayesian interpretation (BI) framework were implemented for the forensic speaker recognition task.

On Instructional Utility, Statistical Methodology, and the Added Value of ECD: Lessons Learned from the Special Issue

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Brian; Nugent, Rebecca; Rupp, Andre A.

2012-01-01

This special issue of "JEDM" was dedicated to bridging work done in the disciplines of "educational and psychological assessment" and "educational data mining" (EDM) via the assessment design and implementation framework of "evidence-centered design" (ECD). It consisted of a series of five papers: one…

Detecting changes in dynamic and complex acoustic environments

PubMed Central

Boubenec, Yves; Lawlor, Jennifer; Górska, Urszula; Shamma, Shihab; Englitz, Bernhard

2017-01-01

Natural sounds such as wind or rain, are characterized by the statistical occurrence of their constituents. Despite their complexity, listeners readily detect changes in these contexts. We here address the neural basis of statistical decision-making using a combination of psychophysics, EEG and modelling. In a texture-based, change-detection paradigm, human performance and reaction times improved with longer pre-change exposure, consistent with improved estimation of baseline statistics. Change-locked and decision-related EEG responses were found in a centro-parietal scalp location, whose slope depended on change size, consistent with sensory evidence accumulation. The potential's amplitude scaled with the duration of pre-change exposure, suggesting a time-dependent decision threshold. Auditory cortex-related potentials showed no response to the change. A dual timescale, statistical estimation model accounted for subjects' performance. Furthermore, a decision-augmented auditory cortex model accounted for performance and reaction times, suggesting that the primary cortical representation requires little post-processing to enable change-detection in complex acoustic environments. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24910.001 PMID:28262095

Epidemiologic evidence regarding vitamin C and cancer.

PubMed

Block, G

1991-12-01

Approximately 90 epidemiologic studies have examined the role of vitamin C or vitamin-C-rich foods in cancer prevention, and the vast majority have found statistically significant protective effects. Evidence is strong for cancers of the esophagus, oral cavity, stomach, and pancreas. There is also substantial evidence of a protective effect in cancers of the cervix, rectum, and breast. Even in lung cancer, for which carotenoids show a consistent protective effect, there is recent evidence of a role for vitamin C. Vitamin C is an important antioxidant and free radical scavenger in plasma and acts to regenerate active vitamin E in lipid membranes. Although several different factors in fruits and vegetables probably act jointly, the epidemiologic and biochemical evidence indicate an important role for vitamin C.

Combining and comparing neutrinoless double beta decay experiments using different nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergström, Johannes

2013-02-01

We perform a global fit of the most relevant neutrinoless double beta decay experiments within the standard model with massive Majorana neutrinos. Using Bayesian inference makes it possible to take into account the theoretical uncertainties on the nuclear matrix elements in a fully consistent way. First, we analyze the data used to claim the observation of neutrinoless double beta decay in 76Ge, and find strong evidence (according to Jeffrey's scale) for a peak in the spectrum and moderate evidence for that the peak is actually close to the energy expected for the neutrinoless decay. We also find a significantly larger statistical error than the original analysis, which we include in the comparison with other data. Then, we statistically test the consistency between this claim with that of recent measurements using 136Xe. We find that the two data sets are about 40 to 80 times more probable under the assumption that they are inconsistent, depending on the nuclear matrix element uncertainties and the prior on the smallest neutrino mass. Hence, there is moderate to strong evidence of incompatibility, and for equal prior probabilities the posterior probability of compatibility is between 1.3% and 2.5%. If one, despite such evidence for incompatibility, combines the two data sets, we find that the total evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay is negligible. If one ignores the claim, there is weak evidence against the existence of the decay. We also perform approximate frequentist tests of compatibility for fixed ratios of the nuclear matrix elements, as well as of the no signal hypothesis. Generalization to other sets of experiments as well as other mechanisms mediating the decay is possible.

Effective signaling of surface boundaries by L-vertices reflect the consistency of their contrast in natural images.

PubMed

Vessel, Edward A; Biederman, Irving; Subramaniam, Suresh; Greene, Michelle R

2016-07-01

An L-vertex, the point at which two contours coterminate, provides highly reliable evidence that a surface terminates at that vertex, thus providing the strongest constraint on the extraction of shape from images (Guzman, 1968). Such vertices are pervasive in our visual world but the importance of a statistical regularity about them has been underappreciated: The contours defining the vertex are (almost) always of the same direction of contrast with respect to the background (i.e., both darker or both lighter). Here we show that when the two contours are of different directions of contrast, the capacity of the L-vertex to signal the termination of a surface, as reflected in object recognition, is markedly reduced. Although image statistics have been implicated in determining the connectivity in the earliest cortical visual stage (V1) and in grouping during visual search, this finding provides evidence that such statistics are involved in later stages where object representations are derived from two-dimensional images.

Network meta-analysis: application and practice using Stata.

PubMed

Shim, Sungryul; Yoon, Byung-Ho; Shin, In-Soo; Bae, Jong-Myon

2017-01-01

This review aimed to arrange the concepts of a network meta-analysis (NMA) and to demonstrate the analytical process of NMA using Stata software under frequentist framework. The NMA tries to synthesize evidences for a decision making by evaluating the comparative effectiveness of more than two alternative interventions for the same condition. Before conducting a NMA, 3 major assumptions-similarity, transitivity, and consistency-should be checked. The statistical analysis consists of 5 steps. The first step is to draw a network geometry to provide an overview of the network relationship. The second step checks the assumption of consistency. The third step is to make the network forest plot or interval plot in order to illustrate the summary size of comparative effectiveness among various interventions. The fourth step calculates cumulative rankings for identifying superiority among interventions. The last step evaluates publication bias or effect modifiers for a valid inference from results. The synthesized evidences through five steps would be very useful to evidence-based decision-making in healthcare. Thus, NMA should be activated in order to guarantee the quality of healthcare system.

Earning Differences by Major Field of Study: Evidence from Three Cohorts of Recent Canadian Graduates.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finnie, Ross; Frenette, Marc

2003-01-01

Analysis of earnings differences by major field of study of three cohorts of graduates (1982, 1986, 1990) with bachelors' degrees from Canadian postsecondary institutions. Finds that earnings differences are large and statistically significant. The patterns are relatively consistent for the three cohorts and for male and female graduates, 2 and 5…

Validation of an instrument to assess evidence-based practice knowledge, attitudes, access, and confidence in the dental environment.

PubMed

Hendricson, William D; Rugh, John D; Hatch, John P; Stark, Debra L; Deahl, Thomas; Wallmann, Elizabeth R

2011-02-01

This article reports the validation of an assessment instrument designed to measure the outcomes of training in evidence-based practice (EBP) in the context of dentistry. Four EBP dimensions are measured by this instrument: 1) understanding of EBP concepts, 2) attitudes about EBP, 3) evidence-accessing methods, and 4) confidence in critical appraisal. The instrument-the Knowledge, Attitudes, Access, and Confidence Evaluation (KACE)-has four scales, with a total of thirty-five items: EBP knowledge (ten items), EBP attitudes (ten), accessing evidence (nine), and confidence (six). Four elements of validity were assessed: consistency of items within the KACE scales (extent to which items within a scale measure the same dimension), discrimination (capacity to detect differences between individuals with different training or experience), responsiveness (capacity to detect the effects of education on trainees), and test-retest reliability. Internal consistency of scales was assessed by analyzing responses of second-year dental students, dental residents, and dental faculty members using Cronbach coefficient alpha, a statistical measure of reliability. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing KACE scores for the three groups. Responsiveness was assessed by comparing pre- and post-training responses for dental students and residents. To measure test-retest reliability, the full KACE was completed twice by a class of freshman dental students seventeen days apart, and the knowledge scale was completed twice by sixteen faculty members fourteen days apart. Item-to-scale consistency ranged from 0.21 to 0.78 for knowledge, 0.57 to 0.83 for attitude, 0.70 to 0.84 for accessing evidence, and 0.87 to 0.94 for confidence. For discrimination, ANOVA and post hoc testing by the Tukey-Kramer method revealed significant score differences among students, residents, and faculty members consistent with education and experience levels. For responsiveness to training, dental students and residents demonstrated statistically significant changes, in desired directions, from pre- to post-test. For the student test-retest, Pearson correlations for KACE scales were as follows: knowledge 0.66, attitudes 0.66, accessing evidence 0.74, and confidence 0.76. For the knowledge scale test-retest by faculty members, the Pearson correlation was 0.79. The construct validity of the KACE is equivalent to that of instruments that assess similar EBP dimensions in medicine. Item consistency for the knowledge scale was more variable than for other KACE scales, a finding also reported for medically oriented EBP instruments. We conclude that the KACE has good discriminative validity, responsiveness to training effects, and test-retest reliability.

Validation of surrogate endpoints in advanced solid tumors: systematic review of statistical methods, results, and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Ciani, Oriana; Davis, Sarah; Tappenden, Paul; Garside, Ruth; Stein, Ken; Cantrell, Anna; Saad, Everardo D; Buyse, Marc; Taylor, Rod S

2014-07-01

Licensing of, and coverage decisions on, new therapies should rely on evidence from patient-relevant endpoints such as overall survival (OS). Nevertheless, evidence from surrogate endpoints may also be useful, as it may not only expedite the regulatory approval of new therapies but also inform coverage decisions. It is, therefore, essential that candidate surrogate endpoints be properly validated. However, there is no consensus on statistical methods for such validation and on how the evidence thus derived should be applied by policy makers. We review current statistical approaches to surrogate-endpoint validation based on meta-analysis in various advanced-tumor settings. We assessed the suitability of two surrogates (progression-free survival [PFS] and time-to-progression [TTP]) using three current validation frameworks: Elston and Taylor's framework, the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care's (IQWiG) framework and the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). A wide variety of statistical methods have been used to assess surrogacy. The strength of the association between the two surrogates and OS was generally low. The level of evidence (observation-level versus treatment-level) available varied considerably by cancer type, by evaluation tools and was not always consistent even within one specific cancer type. Not in all solid tumors the treatment-level association between PFS or TTP and OS has been investigated. According to IQWiG's framework, only PFS achieved acceptable evidence of surrogacy in metastatic colorectal and ovarian cancer treated with cytotoxic agents. Our study emphasizes the challenges of surrogate-endpoint validation and the importance of building consensus on the development of evaluation frameworks.

Lost in Translation: Piloting a Novel Framework to Assess the Challenges in Translating Scientific Uncertainty From Empirical Findings to WHO Policy Statements

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Huang, Jonathan Y.; Jones, Catherine M.

2017-01-01

Background: Calls for evidence-informed public health policy, with implicit promises of greater program effectiveness, have intensified recently. The methods to produce such policies are not self-evident, requiring a conciliation of values and norms between policy-makers and evidence producers. In particular, the translation of uncertainty from empirical research findings, particularly issues of statistical variability and generalizability, is a persistent challenge because of the incremental nature of research and the iterative cycle of advancing knowledge and implementation. This paper aims to assess how the concept of uncertainty is considered and acknowledged in World Health Organization (WHO) policy recommendations and guidelines. Methods: We selected four WHO policy statements published between 2008-2013 regarding maternal and child nutrient supplementation, infant feeding, heat action plans, and malaria control to represent topics with a spectrum of available evidence bases. Each of these four statements was analyzed using a novel framework to assess the treatment of statistical variability and generalizability. Results: WHO currently provides substantial guidance on addressing statistical variability through GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) ratings for precision and consistency in their guideline documents. Accordingly, our analysis showed that policy-informing questions were addressed by systematic reviews and representations of statistical variability (eg, with numeric confidence intervals). In contrast, the presentation of contextual or "background" evidence regarding etiology or disease burden showed little consideration for this variability. Moreover, generalizability or "indirectness" was uniformly neglected, with little explicit consideration of study settings or subgroups. Conclusion: In this paper, we found that non-uniform treatment of statistical variability and generalizability factors that may contribute to uncertainty regarding recommendations were neglected, including the state of evidence informing background questions (prevalence, mechanisms, or burden or distributions of health problems) and little assessment of generalizability, alternate interventions, and additional outcomes not captured by systematic review. These other factors often form a basis for providing policy recommendations, particularly in the absence of a strong evidence base for intervention effects. Consequently, they should also be subject to stringent and systematic evaluation criteria. We suggest that more effort is needed to systematically acknowledge (1) when evidence is missing, conflicting, or equivocal, (2) what normative considerations were also employed, and (3) how additional evidence may be accrued. PMID:29179291

Effects of Interventions on Survival in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: an Umbrella Review of 159 Published Randomized Trials and 29 Meta-analyses

PubMed Central

Tonelli, Adriano R.; Zein, Joe; Adams, Jacob; Ioannidis, John P.A.

2014-01-01

Purpose Multiple interventions have been tested in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We examined the entire agenda of published randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in ARDS that reported on mortality and of respective meta-analyses. Methods We searched PubMed, the Cochrane Library and Web of Knowledge until July 2013. We included RCTs in ARDS published in English. We excluded trials of newborns and children; and those on short-term interventions, ARDS prevention or post-traumatic lung injury. We also reviewed all meta-analyses of RCTs in this field that addressed mortality. Treatment modalities were grouped in five categories: mechanical ventilation strategies and respiratory care, enteral or parenteral therapies, inhaled / intratracheal medications, nutritional support and hemodynamic monitoring. Results We identified 159 published RCTs of which 93 had overall mortality reported (n= 20,671 patients) - 44 trials (14,426 patients) reported mortality as a primary outcome. A statistically significant survival benefit was observed in 8 trials (7 interventions) and two trials reported an adverse effect on survival. Among RTCs with >50 deaths in at least 1 treatment arm (n=21), 2 showed a statistically significant mortality benefit of the intervention (lower tidal volumes and prone positioning), 1 showed a statistically significant mortality benefit only in adjusted analyses (cisatracurium) and 1 (high-frequency oscillatory ventilation) showed a significant detrimental effect. Across 29 meta-analyses, the most consistent evidence was seen for low tidal volumes and prone positioning in severe ARDS. Conclusions There is limited supportive evidence that specific interventions can decrease mortality in ARDS. While low tidal volumes and prone positioning in severe ARDS seem effective, most sporadic findings of interventions suggesting reduced mortality are not corroborated consistently in large-scale evidence including meta-analyses. PMID:24667919

An evidence-based analysis of epidemiologic associations between lymphatic and hematopoietic cancers and occupational exposure to gasoline.

PubMed

Keenan, J J; Gaffney, S; Gross, S A; Ronk, C J; Paustenbach, D J; Galbraith, D; Kerger, B D

2013-10-01

The presence of benzene in motor gasoline has been a health concern for potential increased risk of acute myelogenous leukemia and perhaps other lymphatic/hematopoietic cancers for approximately 40 years. Because of the widespread and increasing use of gasoline by consumers and the high exposure potential of occupational cohorts, a thorough understanding of this issue is important. The current study utilizes an evidence-based approach to examine whether or not the available epidemiologic studies demonstrate a strong and consistent association between occupational exposure to gasoline and lymphatic/hematopoietic cancers. Among 67 epidemiologic studies initially identified, 54 were ranked according to specific criteria relating to the relevance and robustness of each study for answering the research question. The 30 highest-ranked studies were sorted into three tiers of evidence and were analyzed for strength, specificity, consistency, temporality, dose-response trends and coherence. Meta statistics were also calculated for each general and specific lymphatic/hematopoietic cancer category with adequate data. The evidence-based analysis did not confirm any strong and consistent association between occupational exposure to gasoline and lymphatic/hematopoietic cancers based on the epidemiologic studies available to date. These epidemiologic findings, combined with the evidence showing relatively low occupational benzene vapor exposures associated with gasoline formulations during the last three decades, suggest that current motor gasoline formulations are not associated with increased lymphatic/hematopoietic cancer risks related to benzene.

Epidemiological criteria for evidence of beneficial or adverse effects of elevated dosages of vitamins.

PubMed

Bruppacher, R

1989-01-01

Criteria for epidemiological evidence of effects of elevated dosages of vitamins are basically the same as those for the evidence of effects of other exposures. Given the unambiguous classifications of both exposure and cases, they comprise strength, significance, specificity, and consistency of the statistical association, plausible time relationship as well as dose-effect relationship and consistency with other evidence. Today, the term epidemiological evidence usually refers to field experience, often to "observational," i.e., non-experimental, evidence. An extreme example for this are the so-called "ecological studies," which are frequently criticized because of their potential for exaggerated interpretations, though they can be very helpful in constructing and supporting hypotheses. For very rare and long-term effects the description and evaluation of individual cases are often combined with attempts of quantification, by relating them to the estimated exposure of the source population. This is subject to numerous sources of errors. If it is difficult to confirm the existence of rare and late effects, as the collection and interpretation of data on the prevention of such effects often present almost insurmountable methodological challenges. However, with correct interpretation and by keeping the quantitative perspective in mind, epidemiological evidence can be extremely helpful in the assessment of the overall importance, i.e., the public health significance, of such effects.

Observational Evidence of Shallow Origins for the Magnetic Fields of Solar Cycles - a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Sara F.

2018-05-01

Observational evidence for the origin of active region magnetic fields has been sought from published information on extended solar cycles, statistical distributions of active regions and ephemeral regions, helioseismology results, positional relationships to supergranules, and fine-scale magnetic structure of active regions and their sunspots during their growth. Statistical distributions of areas of ephemeral and active regions blend together to reveal a single power law. The shape of the size distribution in latitude of all active regions is independent of time during the solar cycle, yielding further evidence that active regions of all sizes belong to the same population. Elementary bipoles, identified also by other names, appear to be the building blocks of active regions; sunspots form from elementary bipoles and are therefore deduced to develop from the photosphere downward, consistent with helioseismic detection of downflows to 3-4 Mm below sunspots as well as long-observed downflows from chromospheric/coronal arch filaments into sunspots from their earliest appearance. Time-distance helioseismology has been effective in revealing flows related to sunspots to depths of 20 Mm. Ring diagram analysis shows a statistically significant preference for upflows to precede major active region emergence and downflows after flux emergence but both are often observed together or sometimes not detected. From deep-focus helioseismic techniques for seeking magnetic flux below the photosphere prior major active regions, there is evidence of acoustic travel-time perturbation signatures rising in the limited range of depths of 42-75 Mm but these have not been verified or found at more shallow depths by helioseismic holographic techniques. The development of active regions from clusters of elementary bipoles appears to be the same irrespective of how much flux an active region eventually develops. This property would be consistent with the magnetic fields of large active regions being generated in the same way and close the same depth as small active regions in a shallow zone below the photosphere. All evidence considered together, understanding the origins of the magnetic fields of solar cycles boils down to learning how and where elementary bipoles are generated beneath the photosphere.

Is Statistical Learning Constrained by Lower Level Perceptual Organization?

PubMed Central

Emberson, Lauren L.; Liu, Ran; Zevin, Jason D.

2013-01-01

In order for statistical information to aid in complex developmental processes such as language acquisition, learning from higher-order statistics (e.g. across successive syllables in a speech stream to support segmentation) must be possible while perceptual abilities (e.g. speech categorization) are still developing. The current study examines how perceptual organization interacts with statistical learning. Adult participants were presented with multiple exemplars from novel, complex sound categories designed to reflect some of the spectral complexity and variability of speech. These categories were organized into sequential pairs and presented such that higher-order statistics, defined based on sound categories, could support stream segmentation. Perceptual similarity judgments and multi-dimensional scaling revealed that participants only perceived three perceptual clusters of sounds and thus did not distinguish the four experimenter-defined categories, creating a tension between lower level perceptual organization and higher-order statistical information. We examined whether the resulting pattern of learning is more consistent with statistical learning being “bottom-up,” constrained by the lower levels of organization, or “top-down,” such that higher-order statistical information of the stimulus stream takes priority over the perceptual organization, and perhaps influences perceptual organization. We consistently find evidence that learning is constrained by perceptual organization. Moreover, participants generalize their learning to novel sounds that occupy a similar perceptual space, suggesting that statistical learning occurs based on regions of or clusters in perceptual space. Overall, these results reveal a constraint on learning of sound sequences, such that statistical information is determined based on lower level organization. These findings have important implications for the role of statistical learning in language acquisition. PMID:23618755

Theory of atomic spectral emission intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yngström, Sten

1994-07-01

The theoretical derivation of a new spectral line intensity formula for atomic radiative emission is presented. The theory is based on first principles of quantum physics, electrodynamics, and statistical physics. Quantum rules lead to revision of the conventional principle of local thermal equilibrium of matter and radiation. Study of electrodynamics suggests absence of spectral emission from fractions of the numbers of atoms and ions in a plasma due to radiative inhibition caused by electromagnetic force fields. Statistical probability methods are extended by the statement: A macroscopic physical system develops in the most probable of all conceivable ways consistent with the constraining conditions for the system. The crucial role of statistical physics in transforming quantum logic into common sense logic is stressed. The theory is strongly supported by experimental evidence.

Economic fluctuations and statistical physics: Quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. E.; Gabaix, Xavier; Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Plerou, Vasiliki

2007-08-01

One challenge of economics is that the systems treated by these sciences have no perfect metronome in time and no perfect spatial architecture-crystalline or otherwise. Nonetheless, as if by magic, out of nothing but randomness one finds remarkably fine-tuned processes in time. We present an overview of recent research joining practitioners of economic theory and statistical physics to try to better understand puzzles regarding economic fluctuations. One of these puzzles is how to describe outliers, phenomena that lie outside of patterns of statistical regularity. We review evidence consistent with the possibility that such outliers may not exist. This possibility is supported by recent analysis of databases containing information about each trade of every stock.

Health facilities humanisation: design guidelines supported by statistical evidence.

PubMed

Bosia, Daniela; Marino, Donatella; Peretti, Gabriella

2016-01-01

Healthcare building humanisation is currently a widely debated issue and the development of patient centered and evidence based design is growing worldwide. Many international health organizations and researchers understand the importance of Patient Centred Design and leading architects incorporate it into the design process. In Italy this design approach is still at an early stage. The article refers to research commissioned by the Italian Health Ministry and carried out by R. Del Nord (Università degli Studi di Firenze) and G. Peretti (Politecnico di Torino) with their collaborators. The scope of the research was the definition of design guidelines for healthcare facilities humanisation. The methodology framework adopted is the well established need and performance approach in architectural design. The article deals with the results of statistical investigations for the definition and ranking of users' needs and the consistent expression of their requirements. The investigations were carried out with the cooperation of psychologists of the Università degli Studi di Torino and researchers of the Università degli Studi di Cagliari. The proposed evaluation system allows ranking of health facilities according to the level of humanisation achieved. The statistical investigation evidence collected allowed the definition of humanisation design guidelines for health-care facilities and for the assessment of their specific level of humanisation.

Proper assessment of the JFK assassination bullet lead evidence from metallurgical and statistical perspectives.

PubMed

Randich, Erik; Grant, Patrick M

2006-07-01

The bullet evidence in the JFK assassination investigation was reexamined from metallurgical and statistical standpoints. The questioned specimens are comprised of soft lead, possibly from full-metal-jacketed Mannlicher-Carcano (MC), 6.5-mm ammunition. During lead refining, contaminant elements are removed to specified levels for a desired alloy or composition. Microsegregation of trace and minor elements during lead casting and processing can account for the experimental variabilities measured in various evidentiary and comparison samples by laboratory analysts. Thus, elevated concentrations of antimony and copper at crystallographic grain boundaries, the widely varying sizes of grains in MC bullet lead, and the 5-60 mg bullet samples analyzed for assassination intelligence effectively resulted in operational sampling error for the analyses. This deficiency was not considered in the original data interpretation and resulted in an invalid conclusion in favor of the single-bullet theory of the assassination. Alternate statistical calculations, based on the historic analytical data, incorporating weighted averaging and propagation of experimental uncertainties also considerably weaken support for the single-bullet theory. In effect, this assessment of the material composition of the lead specimens from the assassination concludes that the extant evidence is consistent with any number between two and five rounds fired in Dealey Plaza during the shooting.

Proper Assessment of the JFK Assassination Bullet Lead Evidence from Metallurgical and Statistical Perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randich, E; Grant, P M

2006-08-29

The bullet evidence in the JFK assassination investigation was reexamined from metallurgical and statistical standpoints. The questioned specimens are comprised of soft lead, possibly from full-metal-jacketed Mannlicher-Carcano, 6.5-mm ammunition. During lead refining, contaminant elements are removed to specified levels for a desired alloy or composition. Microsegregation of trace and minor elements during lead casting and processing can account for the experimental variabilities measured in various evidentiary and comparison samples by laboratory analysts. Thus, elevated concentrations of antimony and copper at crystallographic grain boundaries, the widely varying sizes of grains in Mannlicher-Carcano bullet lead, and the 5-60 mg bullet samples analyzedmore » for assassination intelligence effectively resulted in operational sampling error for the analyses. This deficiency was not considered in the original data interpretation and resulted in an invalid conclusion in favor of the single-bullet theory of the assassination. Alternate statistical calculations, based on the historic analytical data, incorporating weighted averaging and propagation of experimental uncertainties also considerably weaken support for the single-bullet theory. In effect, this assessment of the material composition of the lead specimens from the assassination concludes that the extant evidence is consistent with any number between two and five rounds fired in Dealey Plaza during the shooting.« less

The language of gene ontology: a Zipf's law analysis.

PubMed

Kalankesh, Leila Ranandeh; Stevens, Robert; Brass, Andy

2012-06-07

Most major genome projects and sequence databases provide a GO annotation of their data, either automatically or through human annotators, creating a large corpus of data written in the language of GO. Texts written in natural language show a statistical power law behaviour, Zipf's law, the exponent of which can provide useful information on the nature of the language being used. We have therefore explored the hypothesis that collections of GO annotations will show similar statistical behaviours to natural language. Annotations from the Gene Ontology Annotation project were found to follow Zipf's law. Surprisingly, the measured power law exponents were consistently different between annotation captured using the three GO sub-ontologies in the corpora (function, process and component). On filtering the corpora using GO evidence codes we found that the value of the measured power law exponent responded in a predictable way as a function of the evidence codes used to support the annotation. Techniques from computational linguistics can provide new insights into the annotation process. GO annotations show similar statistical behaviours to those seen in natural language with measured exponents that provide a signal which correlates with the nature of the evidence codes used to support the annotations, suggesting that the measured exponent might provide a signal regarding the information content of the annotation.

Civil war: is it all about disease and xenophobia? A comment on Letendre, Fincher & Thornhill.

PubMed

Hendrix, Cullen S; Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede

2012-02-01

Letendre, Fincher & Thornhill (2010) argue that pathogen intensity provides the ultimate explanation for why some countries are more prone to civil war than others. They argue that the economic and political factors highlighted in previous research on civil war are largely caused by underlying differences in pathogen intensity, and contend that disease proneness increases the risk of civil war through its effects on resource competition and xenophobia. They present empirical evidence that they interpret as consistent with their argument: a statistically significant correlation between pathogen intensity and civil war onset. In this comment, we raise concerns over their interpretation of the empirical evidence and their proposed causal mechanisms. We find that the data provide stronger evidence for the reverse causal relationship, namely that civil war causes disease to become more prevalent. This finding is consistent with the literatures on the public health effects of civil war as well as research on state capacity and public health. © 2011 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2011 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Critical behavior in earthquake energy dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanliss, James; Muñoz, Víctor; Pastén, Denisse; Toledo, Benjamín; Valdivia, Juan Alejandro

2017-09-01

We explore bursty multiscale energy dissipation from earthquakes flanked by latitudes 29° S and 35.5° S, and longitudes 69.501° W and 73.944° W (in the Chilean central zone). Our work compares the predictions of a theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions with nonstandard statistical signatures of earthquake complex scaling behaviors. For temporal scales less than 84 hours, time development of earthquake radiated energy activity follows an algebraic arrangement consistent with estimates from the theory of nonequilibrium phase transitions. There are no characteristic scales for probability distributions of sizes and lifetimes of the activity bursts in the scaling region. The power-law exponents describing the probability distributions suggest that the main energy dissipation takes place due to largest bursts of activity, such as major earthquakes, as opposed to smaller activations which contribute less significantly though they have greater relative occurrence. The results obtained provide statistical evidence that earthquake energy dissipation mechanisms are essentially "scale-free", displaying statistical and dynamical self-similarity. Our results provide some evidence that earthquake radiated energy and directed percolation belong to a similar universality class.

An Extension of the Chi-Square Procedure for Non-NORMAL Statistics, with Application to Solar Neutrino Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturrock, P. A.

2008-01-01

Using the chi-square statistic, one may conveniently test whether a series of measurements of a variable are consistent with a constant value. However, that test is predicated on the assumption that the appropriate probability distribution function (pdf) is normal in form. This requirement is usually not satisfied by experimental measurements of the solar neutrino flux. This article presents an extension of the chi-square procedure that is valid for any form of the pdf. This procedure is applied to the GALLEX-GNO dataset, and it is shown that the results are in good agreement with the results of Monte Carlo simulations. Whereas application of the standard chi-square test to symmetrized data yields evidence significant at the 1% level for variability of the solar neutrino flux, application of the extended chi-square test to the unsymmetrized data yields only weak evidence (significant at the 4% level) of variability.

Do we still need cities? Evidence on rates of innovation from count data models of metropolitan statistical area patents.

PubMed

Sedgley, Norman; Elmslie, Bruce

2011-01-01

Evidence of the importance of urban agglomeration and the offsetting effects of congestion are provided in a number of studies of productivity and wages. Little attention has been paid to this evidence in the economic growth literature, where the recent focus is on technological change. We extend the idea of agglomeration and congestion effects to the area of innovation by empirically looking for a nonlinear link between population density and patent activity. A panel data set consisting of observations on 302 USA metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) over a 10-year period from 1990 to 1999 is utilized. Following the patent and R&D literature, models that account for the discreet nature of the dependent variable are employed. Strong evidence is found that agglomeration and congestion are important in explaining the vast differences in patent rates across US cities. The most important reason cities continue to exist, given the dramatic drop in transportation costs for physical goods over the last century, is probably related to the forces of agglomeration as they apply to knowledge spillovers. Therefore, the empirical investigation proposed here is an important part of understanding the viability of urban areas in the future.

Serologic evidence of Lyssavirus infections among bats, the Philippines.

PubMed

Arguin, Paul M; Murray-Lillibridge, Kristy; Miranda, Mary E G; Smith, Jean S; Calaor, Alan B; Rupprecht, Charles E

2002-03-01

Active surveillance for lyssaviruses was conducted among populations of bats in the Philippines. The presence of past or current Lyssavirus infection was determined by use of direct fluorescent antibody assays on bat brains and virus neutralization assays on bat sera. Although no bats were found to have active infection with a Lyssavirus, 22 had evidence of neutralizing antibody against the Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV). Seropositivity was statistically associated with one species of bat, Miniopterus schreibersi. Results from the virus neutralization assays are consistent with the presence in the Philippines of a naturally occurring Lyssavirus related to ABLV.

Serologic Evidence of Lyssavirus Infections among Bats, the Philippines

PubMed Central

Murray-Lillibridge, Kristy; Miranda, Mary E.G.; Smith, Jean S.; Calaor, Alan B.; Rupprecht, Charles E.

2002-01-01

Active surveillance for lyssaviruses was conducted among populations of bats in the Philippines. The presence of past or current Lyssavirus infection was determined by use of direct fluorescent antibody assays on bat brains and virus neutralization assays on bat sera. Although no bats were found to have active infection with a Lyssavirus, 22 had evidence of neutralizing antibody against the Australian bat lyssavirus (ABLV). Seropositivity was statistically associated with one species of bat, Miniopterus schreibersi. Results from the virus neutralization assays are consistent with the presence in the Philippines of a naturally occurring Lyssavirus related to ABLV. PMID:11927022

An audit of the statistics and the comparison with the parameter in the population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bujang, Mohamad Adam; Sa'at, Nadiah; Joys, A. Reena; Ali, Mariana Mohamad

2015-10-01

The sufficient sample size that is needed to closely estimate the statistics for particular parameters are use to be an issue. Although sample size might had been calculated referring to objective of the study, however, it is difficult to confirm whether the statistics are closed with the parameter for a particular population. All these while, guideline that uses a p-value less than 0.05 is widely used as inferential evidence. Therefore, this study had audited results that were analyzed from various sub sample and statistical analyses and had compared the results with the parameters in three different populations. Eight types of statistical analysis and eight sub samples for each statistical analysis were analyzed. Results found that the statistics were consistent and were closed to the parameters when the sample study covered at least 15% to 35% of population. Larger sample size is needed to estimate parameter that involve with categorical variables compared with numerical variables. Sample sizes with 300 to 500 are sufficient to estimate the parameters for medium size of population.

Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. Eugene

2003-02-01

We present an overview of recent research applying ideas of statistical physics to try to better understand puzzles regarding economic fluctuations. One of these puzzles is how to describe outliers, phenomena that lie outside of patterns of statistical regularity. We review evidence consistent with the possibility that such outliers may not exist. This possibility is supported by recent analysis by Plerou et al. of a database containing the bid, ask, and sale price of each trade of every stock. Further, the data support the picture of economic fluctuations, due to Plerou et al., in which a financial market alternates between being in an “equilibrium phase” where market behavior is split roughly equally between buying and selling, and an “out-of-equilibrium phase” where the market is mainly either buying or selling.

Effects of Hearing Impairment and Hearing Aid Amplification on Listening Effort: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Ohlenforst, Barbara; Zekveld, Adriana A; Jansma, Elise P; Wang, Yang; Naylor, Graham; Lorens, Artur; Lunner, Thomas; Kramer, Sophia E

To undertake a systematic review of available evidence on the effect of hearing impairment and hearing aid amplification on listening effort. Two research questions were addressed: Q1) does hearing impairment affect listening effort? and Q2) can hearing aid amplification affect listening effort during speech comprehension? English language articles were identified through systematic searches in PubMed, EMBASE, Cinahl, the Cochrane Library, and PsycINFO from inception to August 2014. References of eligible studies were checked. The Population, Intervention, Control, Outcomes, and Study design strategy was used to create inclusion criteria for relevance. It was not feasible to apply a meta-analysis of the results from comparable studies. For the articles identified as relevant, a quality rating, based on the 2011 Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Working Group guidelines, was carried out to judge the reliability and confidence of the estimated effects. The primary search produced 7017 unique hits using the keywords: hearing aids OR hearing impairment AND listening effort OR perceptual effort OR ease of listening. Of these, 41 articles fulfilled the Population, Intervention, Control, Outcomes, and Study design selection criteria of: experimental work on hearing impairment OR hearing aid technologies AND listening effort OR fatigue during speech perception. The methods applied in those articles were categorized into subjective, behavioral, and physiological assessment of listening effort. For each study, the statistical analysis addressing research question Q1 and/or Q2 was extracted. In seven articles more than one measure of listening effort was provided. Evidence relating to Q1 was provided by 21 articles that reported 41 relevant findings. Evidence relating to Q2 was provided by 27 articles that reported 56 relevant findings. The quality of evidence on both research questions (Q1 and Q2) was very low, according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Working Group guidelines. We tested the statistical evidence across studies with nonparametric tests. The testing revealed only one consistent effect across studies, namely that listening effort was higher for hearing-impaired listeners compared with normal-hearing listeners (Q1) as measured by electroencephalographic measures. For all other studies, the evidence across studies failed to reveal consistent effects on listening effort. In summary, we could only identify scientific evidence from physiological measurement methods, suggesting that hearing impairment increases listening effort during speech perception (Q1). There was no scientific, finding across studies indicating that hearing aid amplification decreases listening effort (Q2). In general, there were large differences in the study population, the control groups and conditions, and the outcome measures applied between the studies included in this review. The results of this review indicate that published listening effort studies lack consistency, lack standardization across studies, and have insufficient statistical power. The findings underline the need for a common conceptual framework for listening effort to address the current shortcomings.

Effects of Hearing Impairment and Hearing Aid Amplification on Listening Effort: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Ohlenforst, Barbara; Jansma, Elise P.; Wang, Yang; Naylor, Graham; Lorens, Artur; Lunner, Thomas; Kramer, Sophia E.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To undertake a systematic review of available evidence on the effect of hearing impairment and hearing aid amplification on listening effort. Two research questions were addressed: Q1) does hearing impairment affect listening effort? and Q2) can hearing aid amplification affect listening effort during speech comprehension? Design: English language articles were identified through systematic searches in PubMed, EMBASE, Cinahl, the Cochrane Library, and PsycINFO from inception to August 2014. References of eligible studies were checked. The Population, Intervention, Control, Outcomes, and Study design strategy was used to create inclusion criteria for relevance. It was not feasible to apply a meta-analysis of the results from comparable studies. For the articles identified as relevant, a quality rating, based on the 2011 Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Working Group guidelines, was carried out to judge the reliability and confidence of the estimated effects. Results: The primary search produced 7017 unique hits using the keywords: hearing aids OR hearing impairment AND listening effort OR perceptual effort OR ease of listening. Of these, 41 articles fulfilled the Population, Intervention, Control, Outcomes, and Study design selection criteria of: experimental work on hearing impairment OR hearing aid technologies AND listening effort OR fatigue during speech perception. The methods applied in those articles were categorized into subjective, behavioral, and physiological assessment of listening effort. For each study, the statistical analysis addressing research question Q1 and/or Q2 was extracted. In seven articles more than one measure of listening effort was provided. Evidence relating to Q1 was provided by 21 articles that reported 41 relevant findings. Evidence relating to Q2 was provided by 27 articles that reported 56 relevant findings. The quality of evidence on both research questions (Q1 and Q2) was very low, according to the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation Working Group guidelines. We tested the statistical evidence across studies with nonparametric tests. The testing revealed only one consistent effect across studies, namely that listening effort was higher for hearing-impaired listeners compared with normal-hearing listeners (Q1) as measured by electroencephalographic measures. For all other studies, the evidence across studies failed to reveal consistent effects on listening effort. Conclusion: In summary, we could only identify scientific evidence from physiological measurement methods, suggesting that hearing impairment increases listening effort during speech perception (Q1). There was no scientific, finding across studies indicating that hearing aid amplification decreases listening effort (Q2). In general, there were large differences in the study population, the control groups and conditions, and the outcome measures applied between the studies included in this review. The results of this review indicate that published listening effort studies lack consistency, lack standardization across studies, and have insufficient statistical power. The findings underline the need for a common conceptual framework for listening effort to address the current shortcomings. PMID:28234670

The sumLINK statistic for genetic linkage analysis in the presence of heterogeneity.

PubMed

Christensen, G B; Knight, S; Camp, N J

2009-11-01

We present the "sumLINK" statistic--the sum of multipoint LOD scores for the subset of pedigrees with nominally significant linkage evidence at a given locus--as an alternative to common methods to identify susceptibility loci in the presence of heterogeneity. We also suggest the "sumLOD" statistic (the sum of positive multipoint LOD scores) as a companion to the sumLINK. sumLINK analysis identifies genetic regions of extreme consistency across pedigrees without regard to negative evidence from unlinked or uninformative pedigrees. Significance is determined by an innovative permutation procedure based on genome shuffling that randomizes linkage information across pedigrees. This procedure for generating the empirical null distribution may be useful for other linkage-based statistics as well. Using 500 genome-wide analyses of simulated null data, we show that the genome shuffling procedure results in the correct type 1 error rates for both the sumLINK and sumLOD. The power of the statistics was tested using 100 sets of simulated genome-wide data from the alternative hypothesis from GAW13. Finally, we illustrate the statistics in an analysis of 190 aggressive prostate cancer pedigrees from the International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics, where we identified a new susceptibility locus. We propose that the sumLINK and sumLOD are ideal for collaborative projects and meta-analyses, as they do not require any sharing of identifiable data between contributing institutions. Further, loci identified with the sumLINK have good potential for gene localization via statistical recombinant mapping, as, by definition, several linked pedigrees contribute to each peak.

Monitoring the Extent of Forests on National to Global Scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Townshend, J.; Townshend, J.; Hansen, M.; DeFries, R.; DeFries, R.; Sohlberg, R.; Desch, A.; White, B.

2001-05-01

Information on forest extent and change is important for many purposes, including understanding the global carbon cycle and managing natural resources. International statistics on forest extent are generated using many different sources often producing inconsistent results spatially and through time. Results will be presented comparing forest extent derived from the recent global Food and Agricultural Organization's (FAO) FRA 2000 report with products derived using wall-to-wall Landsat, AVHRR and MODIS data sets. The remotely sensed data sets provide consistent results in terms of total area despite considerable differences in spatial resolution. Although the location of change can be satisfactorily detected with all three remotely sensed data sets, reliable measurement of change can only be achieved through use of Landsat-resolution data. Contrary to the FRA 2000 results we find evidence of an increase in deforestation rates in the late 1990s in several countries. Also we have found evidence of considerable changes in some countries for which little or no change is reported by FAO. The results indicate the benefits of globally consistent analyses of forest cover based on multiscale remotely sensed data sets rather than a reliance on statistics generated by individual countries with very different definitions of forest and methods used to derive them.

Consistency in performance evaluation reports and medical records.

PubMed

Lu, Mingshan; Ma, Ching-to Albert

2002-12-01

In the health care market managed care has become the latest innovation for the delivery of services. For efficient implementation, the managed care organization relies on accurate information. So clinicians are often asked to report on patients before referrals are approved, treatments authorized, or insurance claims processed. What are clinicians responses to solicitation for information by managed care organizations? The existing health literature has already pointed out the importance of provider gaming, sincere reporting, nudging, and dodging the rules. We assess the consistency of clinicians reports on clients across administrative data and clinical records. For about 1,000 alcohol abuse treatment episodes, we compare clinicians reports across two data sets. The first one, the Maine Addiction Treatment System (MATS), was an administrative data set; the state government used it for program performance monitoring and evaluation. The second was a set of medical record abstracts, taken directly from the clinical records of treatment episodes. A clinician s reporting practice exhibits an inconsistency if the information reported in MATS differs from the information reported in the medical record in a statistically significant way. We look for evidence of inconsistencies in five categories: admission alcohol use frequency, discharge alcohol use frequency, termination status, admission employment status, and discharge employment status. Chi-square tests, Kappa statistics, and sensitivity and specificity tests are used for hypothesis testing. Multiple imputation methods are employed to address the problem of missing values in the record abstract data set. For admission and discharge alcohol use frequency measures, we find, respectively, strong and supporting evidence for inconsistencies. We find equally strong evidence for consistency in reports of admission and discharge employment status, and mixed evidence on report consistency on termination status. Patterns of inconsistency may be due to both altruistic and self-interest motives. Payment contracts based on performance may be subject to provider mis-reporting, which could seriously undermine its purpose. However, further analysis is needed to determine how much of the inconsistencies observed are results of clinician gaming in reporting. Increasing system accountability is becoming more and more important for health care policy makers. Results of this study will lead to a better understanding of physician reporting behavior. Our work in this paper on the data sets confirms the statistical significance of strategic reporting in alcohol addiction treatment. It will be of interest to confirm our finding in other data sets. Our on-going research will model the motives behind strategic reporting. We will hypothesize that both altruistic and financial incentives are present. Our empirical identification strategy will use Maine s Performance-Based Contracting system and client insurance sources to test how these incentives affect the direction of clinician s strategic reporting.

Comparing the Persuasiveness of Narrative and Statistical Evidence Using Meta-Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allen, Mike; Preiss, Raymond W.

1997-01-01

Compares the persuasiveness of using statistical versus narrative evidence (case studies or examples) across 15 investigations. Indicates that when comparing messages, statistical evidence is more persuasive than narrative evidence. (PA)

Do gamma-ray burst sources repeat?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meegan, C. A.; Hartmann, D. H.; Brainerd, J. J.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W. S.; Pendleton, G.; Kouveliotou, C.; Fishman, G.; Blumenthal, G.; Brock, M.

1994-01-01

The demonstration of repeated gamma-ray bursts from an individual source would severely constrain burst source models. Recent reports of evidence for repetition in the first BATSE burst catalog have generated renewed interest in this issue. Here, we analyze the angular distribution of 585 bursts of the second BATSE catalog (Meegan et al. 1994). We search for evidence of burst recurrence using the nearest and farthest neighbor statistic ad the two-point angular correlation function. We find the data to be consistent with the hypothesis that burst sources do not repeat; however, a repeater fraction of up to about 20% of the bursts cannot be excluded.

Balneotherapy (or spa therapy) for rheumatoid arthritis. An abridged version of Cochrane Systematic Review.

PubMed

Verhagen, A P; Bierma-Zeinstra, S M; Boers, M; Cardoso, J R; Lambeck, J; De Bie, R; De Vet, H C

2015-12-01

Treatment options for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) include pharmacological interventions, physical therapy treatments and balneotherapy. To evaluate the benefits and harms of balneotherapy in patients with RA. A systematic review. Studies were eligible if they were randomised controlled trials consisting of participants with definitive or classical RA. We searched various databases up to December 2014. Balneotherapy had to be the intervention under study, and had to be compared with another intervention or with no intervention. We considered pain, improvement, disability, tender joints, swollen joints and adverse events among the main outcome measures. We excluded studies when only laboratory variables were reported as outcome measures. Two review authors independently selected trials, performed data extraction and assessed risk of bias. This review includes nine studies involving 579 participants. Most studies showed an unclear risk of bias in most domains. We found no statistically significant differences on pain or improvement between mudpacks versus placebo (1 study; N.=45; hand RA; very low level of evidence). As for the effectiveness of additional radon in carbon dioxide baths, we found no statistically significant differences between groups for all outcomes at three-month follow-up (2 studies; N.=194; low to moderate level of evidence). We noted some benefit of additional radon at six months in pain (moderate level of evidence). One study (N.=148) compared balneotherapy (seated immersion) versus hydrotherapy (exercises in water), land exercises or relaxation therapy. We found no statistically significant differences in pain or in physical disability (very low level of evidence) between groups. We found no statistically significant differences in pain intensity at eight weeks, but some benefit of mineral baths in overall improvement at eight weeks compared to Cyclosporin A (1 study; N.=57; low level of evidence). Overall evidence is insufficient to show that balneotherapy is more effective than no treatment; that one type of bath is more effective than another or that one type of bath is more effective than exercise or relaxation therapy. We were not able to assess any clinical relevant impact of balneotherapy over placebo, no treatment or other treatments.

Network meta-analysis: application and practice using Stata

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

This review aimed to arrange the concepts of a network meta-analysis (NMA) and to demonstrate the analytical process of NMA using Stata software under frequentist framework. The NMA tries to synthesize evidences for a decision making by evaluating the comparative effectiveness of more than two alternative interventions for the same condition. Before conducting a NMA, 3 major assumptions—similarity, transitivity, and consistency—should be checked. The statistical analysis consists of 5 steps. The first step is to draw a network geometry to provide an overview of the network relationship. The second step checks the assumption of consistency. The third step is to make the network forest plot or interval plot in order to illustrate the summary size of comparative effectiveness among various interventions. The fourth step calculates cumulative rankings for identifying superiority among interventions. The last step evaluates publication bias or effect modifiers for a valid inference from results. The synthesized evidences through five steps would be very useful to evidence-based decision-making in healthcare. Thus, NMA should be activated in order to guarantee the quality of healthcare system. PMID:29092392

Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

PubMed

Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

2017-07-01

Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, p<0.0001). Physicians are strongly influenced by a representativeness bias, leading to base-rate neglect, even though they understand the application of statistical probability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Psychometric properties of the Portuguese version of place attachment scale for youth in residential care.

PubMed

Magalhães, Eunice; Calheiros, María M

2015-01-01

Although the significant scientific advances on place attachment literature, no instruments exist specifically developed or adapted to residential care. 410 adolescents (11 - 18 years old) participated in this study. The place attachment scale evaluates five dimensions: Place identity, Place dependence, Institutional bonding, Caregivers bonding and Friend bonding. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, content validity, construct validity (Confirmatory Factor Analysis), concurrent validity with correlations with satisfaction with life and with institution, and reliability evidences. The relationship with individual characteristics and placement length was also verified. Content validity analysis revealed that more than half of the panellists perceive all the items as relevant to assess the construct in residential care. The structure with five dimensions revealed good fit statistics and concurrent validity evidences were found, with significant correlations with satisfaction with life and with the institution. Acceptable values of internal consistence and specific gender differences were found. The preliminary psychometric properties of this scale suggest it potential to be used with youth in care.

Nurses' foot care activities in home health care.

PubMed

Stolt, Minna; Suhonen, Riitta; Puukka, Pauli; Viitanen, Matti; Voutilainen, Päivi; Leino-Kilpi, Helena

2013-01-01

This study described the basic foot care activities performed by nurses and factors associated with these in the home care of older people. Data were collected from nurses (n=322) working in nine public home care agencies in Finland using the Nurses' Foot Care Activities Questionnaire (NFAQ). Data were analyzed statistically using descriptive statistics and multivariate liner models. Although some of the basic foot care activities of nurses reported using were outdated, the majority of foot care activities were consistent with recommendations in foot care literature. Longer working experience, referring patients with foot problems to a podiatrist and physiotherapist, and patient education in wart and nail care were associated with a high score for adequate foot care activities. Continuing education should focus on updating basic foot care activities and increasing the use of evidence-based foot care methods. Also, geriatric nursing research should focus in intervention research to improve the use of evidence-based basic foot care activities. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence for social learning in wild lemurs (Lemur catta).

PubMed

Kendal, Rachel L; Custance, Deborah M; Kendal, Jeremy R; Vale, Gillian; Stoinski, Tara S; Rakotomalala, Nirina Lalaina; Rasamimanana, Hantanirina

2010-08-01

Interest in social learning has been fueled by claims of culture in wild animals. These remain controversial because alternative explanations to social learning, such as asocial learning or ecological differences, remain difficult to refute. Compared with laboratory-based research, the study of social learning in natural contexts is in its infancy. Here, for the first time, we apply two new statistical methods, option-bias analysis and network-based diffusion analysis, to data from the wild, complemented by standard inferential statistics. Contrary to common thought regarding the cognitive abilities of prosimian primates, our evidence is consistent with social learning within subgroups in the ring-tailed lemur (Lemur catta), supporting the theory of directed social learning (Coussi-Korbel & Fragaszy, 1995). We also caution that, as the toolbox for capturing social learning in natural contexts grows, care is required in ensuring that the methods employed are appropriate-in particular, regarding social dynamics among study subjects. Supplemental materials for this article may be downloaded from http://lb.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

Multiplicative point process as a model of trading activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gontis, V.; Kaulakys, B.

2004-11-01

Signals consisting of a sequence of pulses show that inherent origin of the 1/ f noise is a Brownian fluctuation of the average interevent time between subsequent pulses of the pulse sequence. In this paper, we generalize the model of interevent time to reproduce a variety of self-affine time series exhibiting power spectral density S( f) scaling as a power of the frequency f. Furthermore, we analyze the relation between the power-law correlations and the origin of the power-law probability distribution of the signal intensity. We introduce a stochastic multiplicative model for the time intervals between point events and analyze the statistical properties of the signal analytically and numerically. Such model system exhibits power-law spectral density S( f)∼1/ fβ for various values of β, including β= {1}/{2}, 1 and {3}/{2}. Explicit expressions for the power spectra in the low-frequency limit and for the distribution density of the interevent time are obtained. The counting statistics of the events is analyzed analytically and numerically, as well. The specific interest of our analysis is related with the financial markets, where long-range correlations of price fluctuations largely depend on the number of transactions. We analyze the spectral density and counting statistics of the number of transactions. The model reproduces spectral properties of the real markets and explains the mechanism of power-law distribution of trading activity. The study provides evidence that the statistical properties of the financial markets are enclosed in the statistics of the time interval between trades. A multiplicative point process serves as a consistent model generating this statistics.

Did Caravaggio employ optical projections? An image analysis of the parity in the artist's paintings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stork, David G.

2011-03-01

We examine one class of evidence put forth in support of the recent claim that the Italian Baroque master Caravaggio secretly employed optical projectors as a direct drawing aid. Specically, we test the claims that there is an "abnormal number" of left-handed gures in his works and, more specically, that "During the Del Monte period he had too many left-handed models." We also test whether there was a reversal in the handedness of specic models in different paintings. Such evidence would be consistent with the claim that Caravaggio switched between using a convex-lens projector to using a concave-mirror projector and would support, but not prove, the claim that Caravaggio used optical projections. We estimate the parity (+ or -) of each of Caravaggio's 76 appropriate oil paintings based on the handedness of gures, the orientation of asymmetric objects, placement of scabbards, depicted text, and so on, and search for statistically significant changes in handedness in figures. We also track the direction of the illumination over time in the artist's uvre. We discuss some historical evidence as it relates to the question of his possible use of optics. We nd the proportion of left-handed figures lower than that in the general population (not higher), and no significant change in estimated handedness even of individual models. Optical proponents have argued that Bacchus (1597) portrays a left-handed gure, but we give visual and cultural evidence showing that this gure is instead right-handed, thereby rebutting this claim that the painting was executed using optical projections. Moreover, scholars recently re-discovered the image of the artist with easel and canvas reflected in the carafe of wine at the front left in the tableau in Bacchus, showing that this painting was almost surely executed using traditional (non-optical) easel methods. We conclude that there is 1) no statistically signicant abnormally high number of left-handed gures in Caravaggio's uvre, including during any limited working period, 2) no statistically significant change in handedness among all gures or even individual gures that might be consistent with a change in optical projector, and 3) the visual and cultural evidence in Bacchus shows the gure was right-handed and that the artist executed this work by traditional (non-optical) easel methods. We conclude that the general parity and handedness evidence does not support the claim that Caravaggio employed optical projections.

Pathogens and politics: further evidence that parasite prevalence predicts authoritarianism.

PubMed

Murray, Damian R; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

2013-01-01

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat-famine-also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities.

Pathogens and Politics: Further Evidence That Parasite Prevalence Predicts Authoritarianism

PubMed Central

Murray, Damian R.; Schaller, Mark; Suedfeld, Peter

2013-01-01

According to a "parasite stress" hypothesis, authoritarian governments are more likely to emerge in regions characterized by a high prevalence of disease-causing pathogens. Recent cross-national evidence is consistent with this hypothesis, but there are inferential limitations associated with that evidence. We report two studies that address some of these limitations, and provide further tests of the hypothesis. Study 1 revealed that parasite prevalence strongly predicted cross-national differences on measures assessing individuals' authoritarian personalities, and this effect statistically mediated the relationship between parasite prevalence and authoritarian governance. The mediation result is inconsistent with an alternative explanation for previous findings. To address further limitations associated with cross-national comparisons, Study 2 tested the parasite stress hypothesis on a sample of traditional small-scale societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample). Results revealed that parasite prevalence predicted measures of authoritarian governance, and did so even when statistically controlling for other threats to human welfare. (One additional threat—famine—also uniquely predicted authoritarianism.) Together, these results further substantiate the parasite stress hypothesis of authoritarianism, and suggest that societal differences in authoritarian governance result, in part, from cultural differences in individuals' authoritarian personalities. PMID:23658718

The Weekend Effect for Precipitation Over Eastern U.S.: Evidence for Midweek Storm Intensification by Pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas

2007-01-01

Every week the U.S. population carries out a climate-change experiment by varying their activities with the day of the week. It is well documented that pollution levels vary on a weekly basis. Particulate aerosol pollution is generally a maximum in the middle of the week and a minimum on weekends. It is also well known that aerosols can affect precipitation, although whether they suppress or enhance storm development depends on many factors. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has provided evidence that rain statistics change with the day of the week over the southeast U.S. and neighboring waters during the summer months (JJA) of 1998-2005. There is a midweek increase in both rain area and intensity over land, and a midweek decrease over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the Gulf of Mexico. Statistical tests suggest that the weekly variations are very unlikely to be due to the random behavior of weather. We will discuss the TRMM evidence. Wind data from model reanalysis, rain-gauge data, and TRMM radar data all appear to be consistent with the picture that aerosols are causing summertime storms to grow more vigorously and to produce more rainfall.

CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INTELLIGENCE, HEAD CIRCUMFERENCE AND HEIGHT: EVIDENCE FROM TWO SAMPLES IN SAUDI ARABIA.

PubMed

Bakhiet, Salaheldin Farah Attallah; Essa, Yossry Ahmed Sayed; Dwieb, Amira Mahmood Mohsen; Elsayed, Abdelkader Mohamed Abdelkader; Sulman, Afra Sulman Mohammed; Cheng, Helen; Lynn, Richard

2017-03-01

This study was based on two independent studies which in total consisted of 1812 school pupils aged 6-12 years in Saudi Arabia. Study I consisted of 1591 school pupils (609 boys and 982 girls) attending state schools, and Study II consisted of 211 boys with learning disabilities. Intelligence (measured using the Standard Progressive Matrices Plus for Study I and the Standard Progressive Matrices for Study II), head size and height were measured for the two samples. The results showed that intelligence was statistically significantly correlated with head circumference (r=0.350, p<0.001 for Study I and r=0.168, p<0.05 for Study II) and height (r=0.271, p<0.001 for Study I and r=0.178, p<0.05 for Study II).

Statistical learning in reading: variability in irrelevant letters helps children learn phonics skills.

PubMed

Apfelbaum, Keith S; Hazeltine, Eliot; McMurray, Bob

2013-07-01

Early reading abilities are widely considered to derive in part from statistical learning of regularities between letters and sounds. Although there is substantial evidence from laboratory work to support this, how it occurs in the classroom setting has not been extensively explored; there are few investigations of how statistics among letters and sounds influence how children actually learn to read or what principles of statistical learning may improve learning. We examined 2 conflicting principles that may apply to learning grapheme-phoneme-correspondence (GPC) regularities for vowels: (a) variability in irrelevant units may help children derive invariant relationships and (b) similarity between words may force children to use a deeper analysis of lexical structure. We trained 224 first-grade students on a small set of GPC regularities for vowels, embedded in words with either high or low consonant similarity, and tested their generalization to novel tasks and words. Variability offered a consistent benefit over similarity for trained and new words in both trained and new tasks.

The natural history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in women: a multi-parameter evidence synthesis.

PubMed

Price, Malcolm J; Ades, A E; Soldan, Kate; Welton, Nicky J; Macleod, John; Simms, Ian; DeAngelis, Daniela; Turner, Katherine Me; Horner, Paddy J

2016-03-01

The evidence base supporting the National Chlamydia Screening Programme, initiated in 2003, has been questioned repeatedly, with little consensus on modelling assumptions, parameter values or evidence sources to be used in cost-effectiveness analyses. The purpose of this project was to assemble all available evidence on the prevalence and incidence of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) in the UK and its sequelae, pelvic inflammatory disease (PID), ectopic pregnancy (EP) and tubal factor infertility (TFI) to review the evidence base in its entirety, assess its consistency and, if possible, arrive at a coherent set of estimates consistent with all the evidence. Evidence was identified using 'high-yield' strategies. Bayesian Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis models were constructed for separate subparts of the clinical and population epidemiology of CT. Where possible, different types of data sources were statistically combined to derive coherent estimates. Where evidence was inconsistent, evidence sources were re-interpreted and new estimates derived on a post-hoc basis. An internally coherent set of estimates was generated, consistent with a multifaceted evidence base, fertility surveys and routine UK statistics on PID and EP. Among the key findings were that the risk of PID (symptomatic or asymptomatic) following an untreated CT infection is 17.1% [95% credible interval (CrI) 6% to 29%] and the risk of salpingitis is 7.3% (95% CrI 2.2% to 14.0%). In women aged 16-24 years, screened at annual intervals, at best, 61% (95% CrI 55% to 67%) of CT-related PID and 22% (95% CrI 7% to 43%) of all PID could be directly prevented. For women aged 16-44 years, the proportions of PID, EP and TFI that are attributable to CT are estimated to be 20% (95% CrI 6% to 38%), 4.9% (95% CrI 1.2% to 12%) and 29% (95% CrI 9% to 56%), respectively. The prevalence of TFI in the UK in women at the end of their reproductive lives is 1.1%: this is consistent with all PID carrying a relatively high risk of reproductive damage, whether diagnosed or not. Every 1000 CT infections in women aged 16-44 years, on average, gives rise to approximately 171 episodes of PID and 73 of salpingitis, 2.0 EPs and 5.1 women with TFI at age 44 years. The study establishes a set of interpretations of the major studies and study designs, under which a coherent set of estimates can be generated. CT is a significant cause of PID and TFI. CT screening is of benefit to the individual, but detection and treatment of incident infection may be more beneficial. Women with lower abdominal pain need better advice on when to seek early medical attention to avoid risk of reproductive damage. The study provides new insights into the reproductive risks of PID and the role of CT. Further research is required on the proportions of PID, EP and TFI attributable to CT to confirm predictions made in this report, and to improve the precision of key estimates. The cost-effectiveness of screening should be re-evaluated using the findings of this report. The Medical Research Council grant G0801947.

Assessing Attitudes towards Statistics among Medical Students: Psychometric Properties of the Serbian Version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS)

PubMed Central

Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Trajkovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Bukumiric, Zoran; Cirkovic, Andja; Milic, Natasa

2014-01-01

Background Medical statistics has become important and relevant for future doctors, enabling them to practice evidence based medicine. Recent studies report that students’ attitudes towards statistics play an important role in their statistics achievements. The aim of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS) in order to acquire a valid instrument to measure attitudes inside the Serbian educational context. Methods The validation study was performed on a cohort of 417 medical students who were enrolled in an obligatory introductory statistics course. The SATS adaptation was based on an internationally accepted methodology for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the SATS were analyzed through the examination of factorial structure and internal consistency. Results Most medical students held positive attitudes towards statistics. The average total SATS score was above neutral (4.3±0.8), and varied from 1.9 to 6.2. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the questionnaire (Affect, Cognitive Competence, Value, Difficulty, Interest and Effort). Values for fit indices TLI (0.940) and CFI (0.961) were above the cut-off of ≥0.90. The RMSEA value of 0.064 (0.051–0.078) was below the suggested value of ≤0.08. Cronbach’s alpha of the entire scale was 0.90, indicating scale reliability. In a multivariate regression model, self-rating of ability in mathematics and current grade point average were significantly associated with the total SATS score after adjusting for age and gender. Conclusion Present study provided the evidence for the appropriate metric properties of the Serbian version of SATS. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the scale. The SATS might be reliable and a valid instrument for identifying medical students’ attitudes towards statistics in the Serbian educational context. PMID:25405489

Assessing attitudes towards statistics among medical students: psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS).

PubMed

Stanisavljevic, Dejana; Trajkovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Bukumiric, Zoran; Cirkovic, Andja; Milic, Natasa

2014-01-01

Medical statistics has become important and relevant for future doctors, enabling them to practice evidence based medicine. Recent studies report that students' attitudes towards statistics play an important role in their statistics achievements. The aim of the study was to test the psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the Survey of Attitudes Towards Statistics (SATS) in order to acquire a valid instrument to measure attitudes inside the Serbian educational context. The validation study was performed on a cohort of 417 medical students who were enrolled in an obligatory introductory statistics course. The SATS adaptation was based on an internationally accepted methodology for translation and cultural adaptation. Psychometric properties of the Serbian version of the SATS were analyzed through the examination of factorial structure and internal consistency. Most medical students held positive attitudes towards statistics. The average total SATS score was above neutral (4.3±0.8), and varied from 1.9 to 6.2. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the questionnaire (Affect, Cognitive Competence, Value, Difficulty, Interest and Effort). Values for fit indices TLI (0.940) and CFI (0.961) were above the cut-off of ≥0.90. The RMSEA value of 0.064 (0.051-0.078) was below the suggested value of ≤0.08. Cronbach's alpha of the entire scale was 0.90, indicating scale reliability. In a multivariate regression model, self-rating of ability in mathematics and current grade point average were significantly associated with the total SATS score after adjusting for age and gender. Present study provided the evidence for the appropriate metric properties of the Serbian version of SATS. Confirmatory factor analysis validated the six-factor structure of the scale. The SATS might be reliable and a valid instrument for identifying medical students' attitudes towards statistics in the Serbian educational context.

When Is Statistical Evidence Superior to Anecdotal Evidence in Supporting Probability Claims? The Role of Argument Type

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoeken, Hans; Hustinx, Lettica

2009-01-01

Under certain conditions, statistical evidence is more persuasive than anecdotal evidence in supporting a claim about the probability that a certain event will occur. In three experiments, it is shown that the type of argument is an important condition in this respect. If the evidence is part of an argument by generalization, statistical evidence…

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

PubMed Central

Tu, Yu-Kang; Gunnell, David; Gilthorpe, Mark S

2008-01-01

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results. PMID:18211676

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Perona, Paolo

2017-07-01

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854-1999), climate proxies (AD 1600-1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2-7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55-80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47-54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

Investigating the cognitive structure of stereotypes: Generic beliefs about groups predict social judgments better than statistical beliefs.

PubMed

Hammond, Matthew D; Cimpian, Andrei

2017-05-01

Stereotypes are typically defined as beliefs about groups, but this definition is underspecified. Beliefs about groups can be generic or statistical. Generic beliefs attribute features to entire groups (e.g., men are strong), whereas statistical beliefs encode the perceived prevalence of features (e.g., how common it is for men to be strong). In the present research, we sought to determine which beliefs-generic or statistical-are more central to the cognitive structure of stereotypes. Specifically, we tested whether generic or statistical beliefs are more influential in people's social judgments, on the assumption that greater functional importance indicates greater centrality in stereotype structure. Relative to statistical beliefs, generic beliefs about social groups were significantly stronger predictors of expectations (Studies 1-3) and explanations (Study 4) for unfamiliar individuals' traits. In addition, consistent with prior evidence that generic beliefs are cognitively simpler than statistical beliefs, generic beliefs were particularly predictive of social judgments for participants with more intuitive (vs. analytic) cognitive styles and for participants higher (vs. lower) in authoritarianism, who tend to view outgroups in simplistic, all-or-none terms. The present studies suggest that generic beliefs about groups are more central than statistical beliefs to the cognitive structure of stereotypes. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Syndromic surveillance of influenza activity in Sweden: an evaluation of three tools.

PubMed

Ma, T; Englund, H; Bjelkmar, P; Wallensten, A; Hulth, A

2015-08-01

An evaluation was conducted to determine which syndromic surveillance tools complement traditional surveillance by serving as earlier indicators of influenza activity in Sweden. Web queries, medical hotline statistics, and school absenteeism data were evaluated against two traditional surveillance tools. Cross-correlation calculations utilized aggregated weekly data for all-age, nationwide activity for four influenza seasons, from 2009/2010 to 2012/2013. The surveillance tool indicative of earlier influenza activity, by way of statistical and visual evidence, was identified. The web query algorithm and medical hotline statistics performed equally well as each other and to the traditional surveillance tools. School absenteeism data were not reliable resources for influenza surveillance. Overall, the syndromic surveillance tools did not perform with enough consistency in season lead nor in earlier timing of the peak week to be considered as early indicators. They do, however, capture incident cases before they have formally entered the primary healthcare system.

Do gamma-ray burst sources repeat?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meegan, Charles A.; Hartmann, Dieter H.; Brainerd, J. J.; Briggs, Michael S.; Paciesas, William S.; Pendleton, Geoffrey; Kouveliotou, Chryssa; Fishman, Gerald; Blumenthal, George; Brock, Martin

1995-01-01

The demonstration of repeated gamma-ray bursts from an individual source would severely constrain burst source models. Recent reports (Quashnock and Lamb, 1993; Wang and Lingenfelter, 1993) of evidence for repetition in the first BATSE burst catalog have generated renewed interest in this issue. Here, we analyze the angular distribution of 585 bursts of the second BATSE catalog (Meegan et al., 1994). We search for evidence of burst recurrence using the nearest and farthest neighbor statistic and the two-point angular correlation function. We find the data to be consistent with the hypothesis that burst sources do not repeat; however, a repeater fraction of up to about 20% of the observed bursts cannot be excluded.

Testing for nonlinearity in time series: The method of surrogate data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Theiler, J.; Galdrikian, B.; Longtin, A.

1991-01-01

We describe a statistical approach for identifying nonlinearity in time series; in particular, we want to avoid claims of chaos when simpler models (such as linearly correlated noise) can explain the data. The method requires a careful statement of the null hypothesis which characterizes a candidate linear process, the generation of an ensemble of surrogate'' data sets which are similar to the original time series but consistent with the null hypothesis, and the computation of a discriminating statistic for the original and for each of the surrogate data sets. The idea is to test the original time series against themore » null hypothesis by checking whether the discriminating statistic computed for the original time series differs significantly from the statistics computed for each of the surrogate sets. We present algorithms for generating surrogate data under various null hypotheses, and we show the results of numerical experiments on artificial data using correlation dimension, Lyapunov exponent, and forecasting error as discriminating statistics. Finally, we consider a number of experimental time series -- including sunspots, electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, and fluid convection -- and evaluate the statistical significance of the evidence for nonlinear structure in each case. 56 refs., 8 figs.« less

Symptom Clusters in Advanced Cancer Patients: An Empirical Comparison of Statistical Methods and the Impact on Quality of Life.

PubMed

Dong, Skye T; Costa, Daniel S J; Butow, Phyllis N; Lovell, Melanie R; Agar, Meera; Velikova, Galina; Teckle, Paulos; Tong, Allison; Tebbutt, Niall C; Clarke, Stephen J; van der Hoek, Kim; King, Madeleine T; Fayers, Peter M

2016-01-01

Symptom clusters in advanced cancer can influence patient outcomes. There is large heterogeneity in the methods used to identify symptom clusters. To investigate the consistency of symptom cluster composition in advanced cancer patients using different statistical methodologies for all patients across five primary cancer sites, and to examine which clusters predict functional status, a global assessment of health and global quality of life. Principal component analysis and exploratory factor analysis (with different rotation and factor selection methods) and hierarchical cluster analysis (with different linkage and similarity measures) were used on a data set of 1562 advanced cancer patients who completed the European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30. Four clusters consistently formed for many of the methods and cancer sites: tense-worry-irritable-depressed (emotional cluster), fatigue-pain, nausea-vomiting, and concentration-memory (cognitive cluster). The emotional cluster was a stronger predictor of overall quality of life than the other clusters. Fatigue-pain was a stronger predictor of overall health than the other clusters. The cognitive cluster and fatigue-pain predicted physical functioning, role functioning, and social functioning. The four identified symptom clusters were consistent across statistical methods and cancer types, although there were some noteworthy differences. Statistical derivation of symptom clusters is in need of greater methodological guidance. A psychosocial pathway in the management of symptom clusters may improve quality of life. Biological mechanisms underpinning symptom clusters need to be delineated by future research. A framework for evidence-based screening, assessment, treatment, and follow-up of symptom clusters in advanced cancer is essential. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Governance and Regional Variation of Homicide Rates: Evidence From Cross-National Data.

PubMed

Cao, Liqun; Zhang, Yan

2017-01-01

Criminological theories of cross-national studies of homicide have underestimated the effects of quality governance of liberal democracy and region. Data sets from several sources are combined and a comprehensive model of homicide is proposed. Results of the spatial regression model, which controls for the effect of spatial autocorrelation, show that quality governance, human development, economic inequality, and ethnic heterogeneity are statistically significant in predicting homicide. In addition, regions of Latin America and non-Muslim Sub-Saharan Africa have significantly higher rates of homicides ceteris paribus while the effects of East Asian countries and Islamic societies are not statistically significant. These findings are consistent with the expectation of the new modernization and regional theories. © The Author(s) 2015.

Many-body localization in a long range XXZ model with random-field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Bo

2016-12-01

Many-body localization (MBL) in a long range interaction XXZ model with random field are investigated. Using the exact diagonal method, the MBL phase diagram with different tuning parameters and interaction range is obtained. It is found that the phase diagram of finite size results supplies strong evidence to confirm that the threshold interaction exponent α = 2. The tuning parameter Δ can efficiently change the MBL edge in high energy density stats, thus the system can be controlled to transfer from thermal phase to MBL phase by changing Δ. The energy level statistics data are consistent with result of the MBL phase diagram. However energy level statistics data cannot detect the thermal phase correctly in extreme long range case.

Lead exposure and eclampsia in Britain, 1883-1934.

PubMed

Troesken, Werner

2006-07-01

Eclampsia refers to a coma or seizure activity in a pregnant woman with no prior history of such activity. This paper presents a mix of historical and epidemiological evidence consistent with the hypothesis that chronic lead exposure is a predisposing factor for eclampsia. The historical evidence is based on research conducted by British physicians around 1900 showing that the geographic variation in eclampsia across England and Wales was correlated with lead levels in local drinking water supplies. A formal epidemiological analysis based on a data set of English and Welsh counties observed in 1883 corroborates the evidence presented by historical observers. In particular, the statistical results show that the death rate from eclampsia in counties with high-water-lead levels exceeded the death rate in counties with low-water-lead levels by a factor of 2.34 (95% CI: 1.54-3.14).

Evidence for prospective associations among depression and obesity in population-based studies.

PubMed

Faith, M S; Butryn, M; Wadden, T A; Fabricatore, A; Nguyen, A M; Heymsfield, S B

2011-05-01

Obesity may lead to depression or be one of its consequences. We reviewed population-based studies in order to, first, identify the most commonly used research methods, and, second, to evaluate the strength of evidence for prospective associations among obesity and depression. We examined 25 studies, of which 10 tested 'obesity-to-depression' pathways, and 15 tested 'depression-to-obesity' pathways. Descriptive statistics summarized the frequency with which various measurements, designs and data analytic strategies were used. We tallied the number of studies that reported any vs. no statistically significant associations, and report on effect sizes, identified moderating variables within reports, and sought common findings across studies. Results indicated considerable methodological heterogeneity in the literature. Depression was assessed by clinical interview in 44% of studies, weight and height were directly measured in 32%, and only 12% used both. In total, 80% of the studies reported significant obesity-to-depression associations, with odds ratios generally in the range of 1.0 to 2.0, while only 53% of the studies reported significant depression-to-obesity associations. Sex was a common moderating variable. Thus, there was good evidence that obesity is prospectively associated with increased depression, with less consistent evidence that depression leads to obesity. Recommendations for future research regarding study samples, measurement and data analysis are provided. © 2011 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2011 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Image statistics and the perception of surface gloss and lightness.

PubMed

Kim, Juno; Anderson, Barton L

2010-07-01

Despite previous data demonstrating the critical importance of 3D surface geometry in the perception of gloss and lightness, I. Motoyoshi, S. Nishida, L. Sharan, and E. H. Adelson (2007) recently proposed that a simple image statistic--histogram or sub-band skew--is computed by the visual system to infer the gloss and albedo of surfaces. One key source of evidence used to support this claim was an experiment in which adaptation to skewed image statistics resulted in opponent aftereffects in observers' judgments of gloss and lightness. We report a series of adaptation experiments that were designed to assess the cause of these aftereffects. We replicated their original aftereffects in gloss but found no consistent aftereffect in lightness. We report that adaptation to zero-skew adaptors produced similar aftereffects as positively skewed adaptors, and that negatively skewed adaptors induced no reliable aftereffects. We further find that the adaptation effect observed with positively skewed adaptors is not robust to changes in mean luminance that diminish the intensity of the luminance extrema. Finally, we show that adaptation to positive skew reduces (rather than increases) the apparent lightness of light pigmentation on non-uniform albedo surfaces. These results challenge the view that the adaptation results reported by Motoyoshi et al. (2007) provide evidence that skew is explicitly computed by the visual system.

Efficient Coding and Statistically Optimal Weighting of Covariance among Acoustic Attributes in Novel Sounds

PubMed Central

Stilp, Christian E.; Kluender, Keith R.

2012-01-01

To the extent that sensorineural systems are efficient, redundancy should be extracted to optimize transmission of information, but perceptual evidence for this has been limited. Stilp and colleagues recently reported efficient coding of robust correlation (r = .97) among complex acoustic attributes (attack/decay, spectral shape) in novel sounds. Discrimination of sounds orthogonal to the correlation was initially inferior but later comparable to that of sounds obeying the correlation. These effects were attenuated for less-correlated stimuli (r = .54) for reasons that are unclear. Here, statistical properties of correlation among acoustic attributes essential for perceptual organization are investigated. Overall, simple strength of the principal correlation is inadequate to predict listener performance. Initial superiority of discrimination for statistically consistent sound pairs was relatively insensitive to decreased physical acoustic/psychoacoustic range of evidence supporting the correlation, and to more frequent presentations of the same orthogonal test pairs. However, increased range supporting an orthogonal dimension has substantial effects upon perceptual organization. Connectionist simulations and Eigenvalues from closed-form calculations of principal components analysis (PCA) reveal that perceptual organization is near-optimally weighted to shared versus unshared covariance in experienced sound distributions. Implications of reduced perceptual dimensionality for speech perception and plausible neural substrates are discussed. PMID:22292057

Modification of Occupational Exposures on Bladder Cancer Risk by Common Genetic Polymorphisms.

PubMed

Figueroa, Jonine D; Koutros, Stella; Colt, Joanne S; Kogevinas, Manolis; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Real, Francisco X; Friesen, Melissa C; Baris, Dalsu; Stewart, Patricia; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Karagas, Margaret R; Armenti, Karla R; Moore, Lee E; Schned, Alan; Lenz, Petra; Prokunina-Olsson, Ludmila; Banday, A Rouf; Paquin, Ashley; Ylaya, Kris; Chung, Joon-Yong; Hewitt, Stephen M; Nickerson, Michael L; Tardón, Adonina; Serra, Consol; Carrato, Alfredo; García-Closas, Reina; Lloreta, Josep; Malats, Núria; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Chanock, Stephen J; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Rothman, Nathaniel; Silverman, Debra T

2015-11-01

Few studies have demonstrated gene/environment interactions in cancer research. Using data on high-risk occupations for 2258 case patients and 2410 control patients from two bladder cancer studies, we observed that three of 16 known or candidate bladder cancer susceptibility variants displayed statistically significant and consistent evidence of additive interactions; specifically, the GSTM1 deletion polymorphism (P interaction ≤ .001), rs11892031 (UGT1A, P interaction = .01), and rs798766 (TMEM129-TACC3-FGFR3, P interaction = .03). There was limited evidence for multiplicative interactions. When we examined detailed data on a prevalent occupational exposure associated with increased bladder cancer risk, straight metalworking fluids, we also observed statistically significant additive interaction for rs798766 (TMEM129-TACC3-FGFR3, P interaction = .02), with the interaction more apparent in patients with tumors positive for FGFR3 expression. All statistical tests were two-sided. The interaction we observed for rs798766 (TMEM129-TACC3-FGFR3) with specific exposure to straight metalworking fluids illustrates the value of integrating germline genetic variation, environmental exposures, and tumor marker data to provide insight into the mechanisms of bladder carcinogenesis. Published by Oxford University Press 2015. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Statistical Evidence Suggests that Inattention Drives Hyperactivity/Impulsivity in Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Sokolova, Elena; Groot, Perry; Claassen, Tom; van Hulzen, Kimm J.; Glennon, Jeffrey C.; Franke, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background Numerous factor analytic studies consistently support a distinction between two symptom domains of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. Both dimensions show high internal consistency and moderate to strong correlations with each other. However, it is not clear what drives this strong correlation. The aim of this paper is to address this issue. Method We applied a sophisticated approach for causal discovery on three independent data sets of scores of the two ADHD dimensions in NeuroIMAGE (total N = 675), ADHD-200 (N = 245), and IMpACT (N = 164), assessed by different raters and instruments, and further used information on gender or a genetic risk haplotype. Results In all data sets we found strong statistical evidence for the same pattern: the clear dependence between hyperactivity/impulsivity symptom level and an established genetic factor (either gender or risk haplotype) vanishes when one conditions upon inattention symptom level. Under reasonable assumptions, e.g., that phenotypes do not cause genotypes, a causal model that is consistent with this pattern contains a causal path from inattention to hyperactivity/impulsivity. Conclusions The robust dependency cancellation observed in three different data sets suggests that inattention is a driving factor for hyperactivity/impulsivity. This causal hypothesis can be further validated in intervention studies. Our model suggests that interventions that affect inattention will also have an effect on the level of hyperactivity/impulsivity. On the other hand, interventions that affect hyperactivity/impulsivity would not change the level of inattention. This causal model may explain earlier findings on heritable factors causing ADHD reported in the study of twins with learning difficulties. PMID:27768717

Do non-targeted effects increase or decrease low dose risk in relation to the linear-non-threshold (LNT) model?☆

PubMed Central

Little, M.P.

2011-01-01

In this paper we review the evidence for departure from linearity for malignant and non-malignant disease and in the light of this assess likely mechanisms, and in particular the potential role for non-targeted effects. Excess cancer risks observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in many medically and occupationally exposed groups exposed at low or moderate doses are generally statistically compatible. For most cancer sites the dose–response in these groups is compatible with linearity over the range observed. The available data on biological mechanisms do not provide general support for the idea of a low dose threshold or hormesis. This large body of evidence does not suggest, indeed is not statistically compatible with, any very large threshold in dose for cancer, or with possible hormetic effects, and there is little evidence of the sorts of non-linearity in response implied by non-DNA-targeted effects. There are also excess risks of various types of non-malignant disease in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in other groups. In particular, elevated risks of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and digestive disease are observed in the A-bomb data. In contrast with cancer, there is much less consistency in the patterns of risk between the various exposed groups; for example, radiation-associated respiratory and digestive diseases have not been seen in these other (non-A-bomb) groups. Cardiovascular risks have been seen in many exposed populations, particularly in medically exposed groups, but in contrast with cancer there is much less consistency in risk between studies: risks per unit dose in epidemiological studies vary over at least two orders of magnitude, possibly a result of confounding and effect modification by well known (but unobserved) risk factors. In the absence of a convincing mechanistic explanation of epidemiological evidence that is, at present, less than persuasive, a cause-and-effect interpretation of the reported statistical associations for cardiovascular disease is unreliable but cannot be excluded. Inflammatory processes are the most likely mechanism by which radiation could modify the atherosclerotic disease process. If there is to be modification by low doses of ionizing radiation of cardiovascular disease through this mechanism, a role for non-DNA-targeted effects cannot be excluded. PMID:20105434

Evidence based medicine: teaching, learning and practice: results of a cross-sectional study from Turkey.

PubMed

Avsar, Ummu Zeynep; Avsar, Umit; Cansever, Zeliha; Acemoglu, Hamit; Cayir, Yasemin; Khan, Abdul Sattar

2014-07-01

To assess the level of understanding related to the significance of evidence-based medicine among physicians. The cross-sectional study was conducted between March and October 2012 using an online questionnaire that was sent out to physicians and academics working as faculty at training hospitals across Turkey. The questionnaire consisted of questions about the knowledge, attitude and behaviour towards evidence-based medicine. Seven of the questions pertained to the learning of evidence-based medicine, six were about teaching evidence-based medicine, and six were about its practice. SPSS 20 was used for statistical analyses. The questionnaire was returned duly filled by 79 physicians. Of them, 41 (51.9%) were males; and 57 (72.2%) were part of the faculty. Only 1(1.2%) participant had attended a course about evidence-based medicine during undergraduate education, while 19 (24.05)had attended one after graduation. Besides, 26 (32.9%) academics were teaching some concepts of evidence-based medicine, and 21 (26.6%) were giving some information about clinical guidelines. The study found that levels of learning and teaching of evidence-based medicine among physicians were inadequate. They should be emphasised at both pre- and post-graduate tiers.

Evaluation of extreme temperature events in northern Spain based on process control charts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villeta, M.; Valencia, J. L.; Saá, A.; Tarquis, A. M.

2018-02-01

Extreme climate events have recently attracted the attention of a growing number of researchers because these events impose a large cost on agriculture and associated insurance planning. This study focuses on extreme temperature events and proposes a new method for their evaluation based on statistical process control tools, which are unusual in climate studies. A series of minimum and maximum daily temperatures for 12 geographical areas of a Spanish region between 1931 and 2009 were evaluated by applying statistical process control charts to statistically test whether evidence existed for an increase or a decrease of extreme temperature events. Specification limits were determined for each geographical area and used to define four types of extreme anomalies: lower and upper extremes for the minimum and maximum anomalies. A new binomial Markov extended process that considers the autocorrelation between extreme temperature events was generated for each geographical area and extreme anomaly type to establish the attribute control charts for the annual fraction of extreme days and to monitor the occurrence of annual extreme days. This method was used to assess the significance of changes and trends of extreme temperature events in the analysed region. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of an attribute control chart for evaluating extreme temperature events. For example, the evaluation of extreme maximum temperature events using the proposed statistical process control charts was consistent with the evidence of an increase in maximum temperatures during the last decades of the last century.

Quantitative impact of pediatric sinus surgery on facial growth.

PubMed

Senior, B; Wirtschafter, A; Mai, C; Becker, C; Belenky, W

2000-11-01

To quantitatively evaluate the long-term impact of sinus surgery on paranasal sinus development in the pediatric patient. Longitudinal review of eight pediatric patients treated with unilateral sinus surgery for periorbital or orbital cellulitis with an average follow-up of 6.9 years. Control subjects consisted of two groups, 9 normal adult patients with no computed tomographic evidence of sinusitis and 10 adult patients with scans consistent with sinusitis and a history of sinus-related symptoms extending to childhood. Application of computed tomography (CT) volumetrics, a technique allowing for precise calculation of volumes using thinly cut CT images, to the study and control groups. Paired Student t test analyses of side-to-side volume comparisons in the normal patients, patients with sinusitis, and patients who had surgery revealed no statistically significant differences. Comparisons between the orbital volumes of patients who did and did not have surgery revealed a statistically significant increase in orbital volume in patients who had surgery. Only minimal changes in facial volume measurements have been found, confirming clinical impressions that sinus surgery in children is safe and without significant cosmetic sequelae.

Do Different Mental Models Influence Cybersecurity Behavior? Evaluations via Statistical Reasoning Performance.

PubMed

Brase, Gary L; Vasserman, Eugene Y; Hsu, William

2017-01-01

Cybersecurity research often describes people as understanding internet security in terms of metaphorical mental models (e.g., disease risk, physical security risk, or criminal behavior risk). However, little research has directly evaluated if this is an accurate or productive framework. To assess this question, two experiments asked participants to respond to a statistical reasoning task framed in one of four different contexts (cybersecurity, plus the above alternative models). Each context was also presented using either percentages or natural frequencies, and these tasks were followed by a behavioral likelihood rating. As in previous research, consistent use of natural frequencies promoted correct Bayesian reasoning. There was little indication, however, that any of the alternative mental models generated consistently better understanding or reasoning over the actual cybersecurity context. There was some evidence that different models had some effects on patterns of responses, including the behavioral likelihood ratings, but these effects were small, as compared to the effect of the numerical format manipulation. This points to a need to improve the content of actual internet security warnings, rather than working to change the models users have of warnings.

Do Different Mental Models Influence Cybersecurity Behavior? Evaluations via Statistical Reasoning Performance

PubMed Central

Brase, Gary L.; Vasserman, Eugene Y.; Hsu, William

2017-01-01

Cybersecurity research often describes people as understanding internet security in terms of metaphorical mental models (e.g., disease risk, physical security risk, or criminal behavior risk). However, little research has directly evaluated if this is an accurate or productive framework. To assess this question, two experiments asked participants to respond to a statistical reasoning task framed in one of four different contexts (cybersecurity, plus the above alternative models). Each context was also presented using either percentages or natural frequencies, and these tasks were followed by a behavioral likelihood rating. As in previous research, consistent use of natural frequencies promoted correct Bayesian reasoning. There was little indication, however, that any of the alternative mental models generated consistently better understanding or reasoning over the actual cybersecurity context. There was some evidence that different models had some effects on patterns of responses, including the behavioral likelihood ratings, but these effects were small, as compared to the effect of the numerical format manipulation. This points to a need to improve the content of actual internet security warnings, rather than working to change the models users have of warnings. PMID:29163304

Hume, Mill, Hill, and the Sui Generis Epidemiologic Approach to Causal Inference

PubMed Central

Morabia, Alfredo

2013-01-01

The epidemiologic approach to causal inference (i.e., Hill's viewpoints) consists of evaluating potential causes from the following 2, noncumulative angles: 1) established results from comparative, observational, or experimental epidemiologic studies; and 2) reviews of nonepidemiologic evidence. It does not involve statements of statistical significance. The philosophical roots of Hill's viewpoints are unknown. Superficially, they seem to descend from the ideas of Hume and Mill. Hill's viewpoints, however, use a different kind of evidence and have different purposes than do Hume's rules or Mill's system of logic. In a nutshell, Hume ignores comparative evidence central to Hill's viewpoints. Mill's logic disqualifies as invalid nonexperimental evidence, which forms the bulk of epidemiologic findings reviewed from Hill's viewpoints. The approaches by Hume and Mill cannot corroborate successful implementations of Hill's viewpoints. Besides Hume and Mill, the epidemiologic literature is clueless about a plausible, pre-1965 philosophical origin of Hill's viewpoints. Thus, Hill's viewpoints may be philosophically novel, sui generis, still waiting to be validated and justified. PMID:24071010

Hume, Mill, Hill, and the sui generis epidemiologic approach to causal inference.

PubMed

Morabia, Alfredo

2013-11-15

The epidemiologic approach to causal inference (i.e., Hill's viewpoints) consists of evaluating potential causes from the following 2, noncumulative angles: 1) established results from comparative, observational, or experimental epidemiologic studies; and 2) reviews of nonepidemiologic evidence. It does not involve statements of statistical significance. The philosophical roots of Hill's viewpoints are unknown. Superficially, they seem to descend from the ideas of Hume and Mill. Hill's viewpoints, however, use a different kind of evidence and have different purposes than do Hume's rules or Mill's system of logic. In a nutshell, Hume ignores comparative evidence central to Hill's viewpoints. Mill's logic disqualifies as invalid nonexperimental evidence, which forms the bulk of epidemiologic findings reviewed from Hill's viewpoints. The approaches by Hume and Mill cannot corroborate successful implementations of Hill's viewpoints. Besides Hume and Mill, the epidemiologic literature is clueless about a plausible, pre-1965 philosophical origin of Hill's viewpoints. Thus, Hill's viewpoints may be philosophically novel, sui generis, still waiting to be validated and justified.

Childhood growth and chronic disease: evidence from countries undergoing the nutrition transition.

PubMed

Stein, Aryeh D; Thompson, Angela M; Waters, Ashley

2005-07-01

Evidence is accumulating that the pattern of growth in childhood is associated with development of cardiovascular disease in adulthood, but such evidence comes mostly from developed countries. We conducted a review of studies from countries undergoing the nutrition transition. Five birth cohorts with measures of child growth and outcomes through adolescence were identified, from China, India, Guatemala, Brazil and the Philippines. Across studies there are major differences in data availability and in statistical approaches to modelling child growth and its effects. Nevertheless, generally consistent associations of growth failure in early childhood and development of overweight in later childhood with the risk of elevated blood pressure, glucose, and serum lipids in adulthood were observed. As these cohorts mature they will provide a wealth of critical information on the relation between early life factors and later disease risk, and efforts should be made to ensure ongoing follow-up using standardized approaches and more comprehensive assessments.

Statistical mechanics in the context of special relativity. II.

PubMed

Kaniadakis, G

2005-09-01

The special relativity laws emerge as one-parameter (light speed) generalizations of the corresponding laws of classical physics. These generalizations, imposed by the Lorentz transformations, affect both the definition of the various physical observables (e.g., momentum, energy, etc.), as well as the mathematical apparatus of the theory. Here, following the general lines of [Phys. Rev. E 66, 056125 (2002)], we show that the Lorentz transformations impose also a proper one-parameter generalization of the classical Boltzmann-Gibbs-Shannon entropy. The obtained relativistic entropy permits us to construct a coherent and self-consistent relativistic statistical theory, preserving the main features of the ordinary statistical theory, which is recovered in the classical limit. The predicted distribution function is a one-parameter continuous deformation of the classical Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution and has a simple analytic form, showing power law tails in accordance with the experimental evidence. Furthermore, this statistical mechanics can be obtained as the stationary case of a generalized kinetic theory governed by an evolution equation obeying the H theorem and reproducing the Boltzmann equation of the ordinary kinetics in the classical limit.

Subjective Ratings of Beauty and Aesthetics: Correlations With Statistical Image Properties in Western Oil Paintings

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Thomas; Redies, Christoph

2017-01-01

For centuries, oil paintings have been a major segment of the visual arts. The JenAesthetics data set consists of a large number of high-quality images of oil paintings of Western provenance from different art periods. With this database, we studied the relationship between objective image measures and subjective evaluations of the images, especially evaluations on aesthetics (defined as artistic value) and beauty (defined as individual liking). The objective measures represented low-level statistical image properties that have been associated with aesthetic value in previous research. Subjective rating scores on aesthetics and beauty correlated not only with each other but also with different combinations of the objective measures. Furthermore, we found that paintings from different art periods vary with regard to the objective measures, that is, they exhibit specific patterns of statistical image properties. In addition, clusters of participants preferred different combinations of these properties. In conclusion, the results of the present study provide evidence that statistical image properties vary between art periods and subject matters and, in addition, they correlate with the subjective evaluation of paintings by the participants. PMID:28694958

Two-dimensional collective electron magnetotransport, oscillations, and chaos in a semiconductor superlattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonilla, L. L.; Carretero, M.; Segura, A.

2017-12-01

When quantized, traces of classically chaotic single-particle systems include eigenvalue statistics and scars in eigenfuntions. Since 2001, many theoretical and experimental works have argued that classically chaotic single-electron dynamics influences and controls collective electron transport. For transport in semiconductor superlattices under tilted magnetic and electric fields, these theories rely on a reduction to a one-dimensional self-consistent drift model. A two-dimensional theory based on self-consistent Boltzmann transport does not support that single-electron chaos influences collective transport. This theory agrees with existing experimental evidence of current self-oscillations, predicts spontaneous collective chaos via a period doubling scenario, and could be tested unambiguously by measuring the electric potential inside the superlattice under a tilted magnetic field.

On the (In)Consistency of Citizen and Municipal Level Indicators of Social Capital and Local Government Performance.

PubMed

Kampen, Jarl K

2010-06-01

We study the empirical consistency of survey based (micro level) indicators of social capital and local government performance on the one, and municipality based (aggregate level) measures of these two concepts on the other hand. Knowledge about the behavior of these indicators is helpful for evaluating the value of studies carried out in isolated contexts, that is, with access to data on either, but not both, levels. The method is by comparing data collected by Statistics Belgium on Flemish municipalities, to data collected at citizen level by means of a face-to-face survey. The available evidence supplies at best a meager basis for presupposing a shared component of the indicators under study.

Two-dimensional collective electron magnetotransport, oscillations, and chaos in a semiconductor superlattice.

PubMed

Bonilla, L L; Carretero, M; Segura, A

2017-12-01

When quantized, traces of classically chaotic single-particle systems include eigenvalue statistics and scars in eigenfuntions. Since 2001, many theoretical and experimental works have argued that classically chaotic single-electron dynamics influences and controls collective electron transport. For transport in semiconductor superlattices under tilted magnetic and electric fields, these theories rely on a reduction to a one-dimensional self-consistent drift model. A two-dimensional theory based on self-consistent Boltzmann transport does not support that single-electron chaos influences collective transport. This theory agrees with existing experimental evidence of current self-oscillations, predicts spontaneous collective chaos via a period doubling scenario, and could be tested unambiguously by measuring the electric potential inside the superlattice under a tilted magnetic field.

On the (In)Consistency of Citizen and Municipal Level Indicators of Social Capital and Local Government Performance

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

We study the empirical consistency of survey based (micro level) indicators of social capital and local government performance on the one, and municipality based (aggregate level) measures of these two concepts on the other hand. Knowledge about the behavior of these indicators is helpful for evaluating the value of studies carried out in isolated contexts, that is, with access to data on either, but not both, levels. The method is by comparing data collected by Statistics Belgium on Flemish municipalities, to data collected at citizen level by means of a face-to-face survey. The available evidence supplies at best a meager basis for presupposing a shared component of the indicators under study. PMID:20461124

Constraints on Vesta's elemental composition: Fast neutron measurements by Dawn's gamma ray and neutron detector

PubMed Central

Lawrence, David J; Peplowski, Patrick N; Prettyman, Thomas H; Feldman, William C; Bazell, David; Mittlefehldt, David W; Reedy, Robert C; Yamashita, Naoyuki

2013-01-01

Surface composition information from Vesta is reported using fast neutron data collected by the gamma ray and neutron detector on the Dawn spacecraft. After correcting for variations due to hydrogen, fast neutrons show a compositional dynamic range and spatial variability that is consistent with variations in average atomic mass from howardite, eucrite, and diogenite (HED) meteorites. These data provide additional compositional evidence that Vesta is the parent body to HED meteorites. A subset of fast neutron data having lower statistical precision show spatial variations that are consistent with a 400 ppm variability in hydrogen concentrations across Vesta and supports the idea that Vesta's hydrogen is due to long-term delivery of carbonaceous chondrite material. PMID:26074718

Hydroxyurea (hydroxycarbamide) for sickle cell disease.

PubMed

Nevitt, Sarah J; Jones, Ashley P; Howard, Jo

2017-04-20

Sickle cell disease (SCD) is one of the most common inherited diseases worldwide. It is associated with lifelong morbidity and a reduced life expectancy. Hydroxyurea (hydroxycarbamide), an oral chemotherapeutic drug, ameliorates some of the clinical problems of SCD, in particular that of pain, by raising fetal haemoglobin. This is an update of a previously published Cochrane Review. To assess the effects of hydroxyurea therapy in people with SCD (all genotypes), of any age, regardless of setting. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group Haemoglobinopathies Register, comprising of references identified from comprehensive electronic database searches and handsearches of relevant journals and abstract books of conference proceedings. We also searched online trial registries.Date of the most recent search: 16 January 2017. Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials, of one month or longer, comparing hydroxyurea with placebo, standard therapy or other interventions for people with SCD. Authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, carried out data extraction and assessed the risk of bias. Seventeen studies were identified in the searches; eight randomised controlled trials were included, recruiting 899 adults and children with SCD (haemoglobin SS (HbSS), haemoglobin SC (HbSC) or haemoglobin Sβºthalassaemia (HbSβºthal) genotypes). Studies lasted from six to 30 months.Four studies (577 adults and children with HbSS or HbSβºthal) compared hydroxyurea to placebo; three recruited individuals with only severe disease and one recruited individuals with all disease severities. There were statistically significant improvements in terms of pain alteration (using measures such as pain crisis frequency, duration, intensity, hospital admissions and opoid use), measures of fetal haemoglobin and neutrophil counts and fewer occurrences of acute chest syndrome and blood transfusions in the hydroxyurea groups. There were no consistent statistically significant differences in terms of quality of life and adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events). Seven deaths occurred during the studies, but the rates by treatment group were not statistically significantly different.Two studies (254 children with HbSS or HbSβºthal also with risk of primary or secondary stroke) compared hydroxyurea and phlebotomy to transfusion and chelation; there were statistically significant improvements in terms of measures of fetal haemoglobin and neutrophil counts, but more occurrences of acute chest syndrome and infections in the hydroxyurea and phlebotomy group. There were no consistent statistically significant differences in terms of pain alteration and adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events). Two deaths occurred during the studies (one in a the hydroxyurea treatment arm and one in the control arm), but the rates by treatment group were not statistically significantly different. In the primary prevention study, no strokes occurred in either treatment group but in the secondary prevention study, seven strokes occurred in the hydroxyurea and phlebotomy group (none in the transfusion and chelation group) and the study was terminated early.The quality of the evidence for the above two comparisons was judged as moderate to low as the studies contributing to these comparisons were mostly large and well designed (and at low risk of bias); however evidence was limited and imprecise for some outcomes such as quality of life, deaths during the studies and adverse events and results are applicable only to individuals with HbSS and HbSβºthal genotypes.Of the remaining two studies, one (22 children with HbSS or HbSβºthal also at risk of stoke) compared hydroxyurea to observation; there were statistically significant improvements in terms of measures of fetal haemoglobin and neutrophil counts but no statistically significant differences in terms of adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events).The final study (44 adults and children with HbSC) compared treatment regimens with and without hydroxyurea - there was statistically significant improvement in terms of measures of fetal haemoglobin, but no statistically significant differences in terms of adverse events (including serious or life-threatening events). No participants died in either of these studies and other outcomes relevant to the review were not reported.The quality of the evidence for the above two comparisons was judged to be very low due to the limited number of participants, the lack of statistical power (as both studies were terminated early with approximately only 20% of their target sample size recruited) and the lack of applicability to all age groups and genotypes. There is evidence to suggest that hydroxyurea is effective in decreasing the frequency of pain episodes and other acute complications in adults and children with sickle cell anaemia of HbSS or HbSβºthal genotypes and in preventing life-threatening neurological events in those with sickle cell anaemia at risk of primary stroke by maintaining transcranial doppler velocities. However, there is still insufficient evidence on the long-term benefits of hydroxyurea, particularly in preventing chronic complications of SCD, recommending a standard dose or dose escalation to maximum tolerated dose. There is also insufficient evidence about the long-term risks of hydroxyurea, including its effects on fertility and reproduction. Evidence is also limited on the effects of hydroxyurea on individuals with HbSC genotype. Future studies should be designed to address such uncertainties.

Racial/ethnic differences in health insurance adequacy and consistency among children: Evidence from the 2011/12 National Survey of Children's Health.

PubMed

Soylu, Tulay G; Elashkar, Eman; Aloudah, Fatemah; Ahmed, Munir; Kitsantas, Panagiota

2018-02-05

Surveillance of disparities in healthcare insurance, services and quality of care among children are critical for properly serving the medical/healthcare needs of underserved populations. The purpose of this study was to assess racial/ethnic differences in children's (0 to 17 years old) health insurance adequacy and consistency (child has insurance coverage for the last 12 months). We used data from the 2011/2012 National Survey of Children's Health (n=79,474). Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the distribution and influence of several sociodemographic/family related factors on insurance adequacy and consistency across different racial/ethnic groups. Stratified analyses by race/ethnicity revealed that white and black children living in households at or below 299% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) were approximately 29 to 42% less likely to have adequate insurance compared to children living in families of higher income levels. Regardless of race/ethnicity, we found that children with public health insurance were more likely to have adequate insurance than their privately insured counterparts, while adolescents were at greater risk of inadequate coverage. Hispanic and black children were more likely to lack consistent insurance coverage. This study provides evidence that racial/ethnic differences in adequate and consistent health insurance exists with both white and minority children being affected adversely by poverty. Establishing outreach programs for low income families, and cross-cultural education for healthcare providers may help increase health insurance adequacy and consistency within certain underserved populations.

FOXP2 Targets Show Evidence of Positive Selection in European Populations

PubMed Central

Ayub, Qasim; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Chen, Yuan; Xue, Yali; Hu, Min; Vernes, Sonja C.; Fisher, Simon E.; Tyler-Smith, Chris

2013-01-01

Forkhead box P2 (FOXP2) is a highly conserved transcription factor that has been implicated in human speech and language disorders and plays important roles in the plasticity of the developing brain. The pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms in FOXP2 in modern populations suggests that it has been the target of positive (Darwinian) selection during recent human evolution. In our study, we searched for evidence of selection that might have followed FOXP2 adaptations in modern humans. We examined whether or not putative FOXP2 targets identified by chromatin-immunoprecipitation genomic screening show evidence of positive selection. We developed an algorithm that, for any given gene list, systematically generates matched lists of control genes from the Ensembl database, collates summary statistics for three frequency-spectrum-based neutrality tests from the low-coverage resequencing data of the 1000 Genomes Project, and determines whether these statistics are significantly different between the given gene targets and the set of controls. Overall, there was strong evidence of selection of FOXP2 targets in Europeans, but not in the Han Chinese, Japanese, or Yoruba populations. Significant outliers included several genes linked to cellular movement, reproduction, development, and immune cell trafficking, and 13 of these constituted a significant network associated with cardiac arteriopathy. Strong signals of selection were observed for CNTNAP2 and RBFOX1, key neurally expressed genes that have been consistently identified as direct FOXP2 targets in multiple studies and that have themselves been associated with neurodevelopmental disorders involving language dysfunction. PMID:23602712

A simulation study of the strength of evidence in the recommendation of medications based on two trials with statistically significant results

PubMed Central

Ioannidis, John P. A.

2017-01-01

A typical rule that has been used for the endorsement of new medications by the Food and Drug Administration is to have two trials, each convincing on its own, demonstrating effectiveness. “Convincing” may be subjectively interpreted, but the use of p-values and the focus on statistical significance (in particular with p < .05 being coined significant) is pervasive in clinical research. Therefore, in this paper, we calculate with simulations what it means to have exactly two trials, each with p < .05, in terms of the actual strength of evidence quantified by Bayes factors. Our results show that different cases where two trials have a p-value below .05 have wildly differing Bayes factors. Bayes factors of at least 20 in favor of the alternative hypothesis are not necessarily achieved and they fail to be reached in a large proportion of cases, in particular when the true effect size is small (0.2 standard deviations) or zero. In a non-trivial number of cases, evidence actually points to the null hypothesis, in particular when the true effect size is zero, when the number of trials is large, and when the number of participants in both groups is low. We recommend use of Bayes factors as a routine tool to assess endorsement of new medications, because Bayes factors consistently quantify strength of evidence. Use of p-values may lead to paradoxical and spurious decision-making regarding the use of new medications. PMID:28273140

Structural correlates of Openness and Intellect: Implications for the contribution of personality to creativity.

PubMed

Vartanian, Oshin; Wertz, Christopher J; Flores, Ranee A; Beatty, Erin L; Smith, Ingrid; Blackler, Kristen; Lam, Quan; Jung, Rex E

2018-04-15

Openness/Intellect (i.e., openness to experience) is the Big Five personality factor most consistently associated with individual differences in creativity. Recent psychometric evidence has demonstrated that this factor consists of two distinct aspects-Intellect and Openness. Whereas Intellect reflects perceived intelligence and intellectual engagement, Openness reflects engagement with fantasy, perception, and aesthetics. We investigated the extent to which Openness and Intellect are associated with variations in brain structure as measured by cortical thickness, area, and volume (N = 185). Our results demonstrated that Openness was correlated inversely with cortical thickness and volume in left middle frontal gyrus (BA 6), middle temporal gyrus (MTG, BA 21), and superior temporal gyrus (BA 41), and exclusively with cortical thickness in left inferior parietal lobule (BA 40), right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG, BA 45), and MTG (BA 37). When age and sex were statistically controlled for, the inverse correlations between Openness and cortical thickness remained statistically significant for all regions except left MTG, whereas the correlations involving cortical volume remained statistically significant only for left middle frontal gyrus. There was no statistically significant correlation between Openness and cortical area, and no statistically significant correlation between Intellect and cortical thickness, area, or volume. Our results demonstrate that individual differences in Openness are correlated with variation in brain structure-particularly as indexed by cortical thickness. Given the involvement of the above regions in processes related to memory and cognitive control, we discuss the implications of our findings for the possible contribution of personality to creative cognition. © 2018 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada 2018. Reproduced with permission of the Minister of Health, Canada. Human Brain Mapping.

Effect of Health Insurance on the Use and Provision of Maternal Health Services and Maternal and Neonatal Health Outcomes: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Peterson, Lauren A.; Hatt, Laurel E.

2013-01-01

Financial barriers can affect timely access to maternal health services. Health insurance can influence the use and quality of these services and potentially improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes. We conducted a systematic review of the evidence on health insurance and its effects on the use and provision of maternal health services and on maternal and neonatal health outcomes in middle- and low-income countries. Studies were identified through a literature search in key databases and consultation with experts in healthcare financing and maternal health. Twenty-nine articles met the review criteria of focusing on health insurance and its effect on the use or quality of maternal health services, or maternal and neonatal health outcomes. Sixteen studies assessed demand-side effects of insurance, eight focused on supply-side effects, and the remainder addressed both. Geographically, the studies provided evidence from sub-Saharan Africa (n=11), Asia (n=9), Latin America (n=8), and Turkey. The studies included examples from national or social insurance schemes (n=7), government-run public health insurance schemes (n=4), community-based health insurance schemes (n=11), and private insurance (n=3). Half of the studies used econometric analyses while the remaining provided descriptive statistics or qualitative results. There is relatively consistent evidence that health insurance is positively correlated with the use of maternal health services. Only four studies used methods that can establish this causal relationship. Six studies presented suggestive evidence of overprovision of caesarean sections in response to providers’ payment incentives through health insurance. Few studies focused on the relationship between health insurance and the quality of maternal health services or maternal and neonatal health outcomes. The available evidence on the quality and health outcomes is inconclusive, given the differences in measurement, contradictory findings, and statistical limitations. Consistent with economic theories, the studies identified a positive relationship between health insurance and the use of maternal health services. However, more rigorous causal methods are needed to identify the extent to which the use of these services increases among the insured. Better measurement of quality and the use of cross-country analyses would solidify the evidence on the impact of insurance on the quality of maternal health services and maternal and neonatal health outcomes.

Correlates of consistent condom use among men who have sex with men recruited through the Internet in Huzhou city: a cross-sectional survey.

PubMed

Jin, Meihua; Yang, Zhongrong; Dong, Zhengquan; Han, Jiankang

2013-12-01

There is growing evidence that men who have sex with men (MSM) are currently a group at high risk of HIV infection in China. Our study aims to know the factors affecting consistent condom use among MSM recruited through the internet in Huzhou city. An anonymous cross-sectional study was conducted by recruiting 410 MSM living in Huzhou city via the Internet. The socio-demographic profiles (age, education level, employment status, etc.) and sexual risk behaviors of the respondents were investigated. Bivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to compare the differences between consistent condom users and inconsistent condom users. Variables with significant bivariate between groups' differences were used as candidate variables in a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS for Windows 17.0, and a p value < 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. According to their condom use, sixty-eight respondents were classified into two groups. One is consistent condom users, and the other is inconsistent condom users. Multivariate logistic regression showed that respondents who had a comprehensive knowledge of HIV (OR = 4.08, 95% CI: 1.85-8.99), who had sex with male sex workers (OR = 15.30, 95% CI: 5.89-39.75) and who had not drunk alcohol before sex (OR = 3.10, 95% CI: 1.38-6.95) were more likely to be consistent condom users. Consistent condom use among MSM was associated with comprehensive knowledge of HIV and a lack of alcohol use before sexual contact. As a result, reducing alcohol consumption and enhancing education regarding the risks of HIV among sexually active MSM would be effective in preventing of HIV transmission.

Properties of different selection signature statistics and a new strategy for combining them.

PubMed

Ma, Y; Ding, X; Qanbari, S; Weigend, S; Zhang, Q; Simianer, H

2015-11-01

Identifying signatures of recent or ongoing selection is of high relevance in livestock population genomics. From a statistical perspective, determining a proper testing procedure and combining various test statistics is challenging. On the basis of extensive simulations in this study, we discuss the statistical properties of eight different established selection signature statistics. In the considered scenario, we show that a reasonable power to detect selection signatures is achieved with high marker density (>1 SNP/kb) as obtained from sequencing, while rather small sample sizes (~15 diploid individuals) appear to be sufficient. Most selection signature statistics such as composite likelihood ratio and cross population extended haplotype homozogysity have the highest power when fixation of the selected allele is reached, while integrated haplotype score has the highest power when selection is ongoing. We suggest a novel strategy, called de-correlated composite of multiple signals (DCMS) to combine different statistics for detecting selection signatures while accounting for the correlation between the different selection signature statistics. When examined with simulated data, DCMS consistently has a higher power than most of the single statistics and shows a reliable positional resolution. We illustrate the new statistic to the established selective sweep around the lactase gene in human HapMap data providing further evidence of the reliability of this new statistic. Then, we apply it to scan selection signatures in two chicken samples with diverse skin color. Our analysis suggests that a set of well-known genes such as BCO2, MC1R, ASIP and TYR were involved in the divergent selection for this trait.

Meta-analysis in applied ecology.

PubMed

Stewart, Gavin

2010-02-23

This overview examines research synthesis in applied ecology and conservation. Vote counting and pooling unweighted averages are widespread despite the superiority of syntheses based on weighted combination of effects. Such analyses allow exploration of methodological uncertainty in addition to consistency of effects across species, space and time, but exploring heterogeneity remains controversial. Meta-analyses are required to generalize in ecology, and to inform evidence-based decision-making, but the more sophisticated statistical techniques and registers of research used in other disciplines must be employed in ecology to fully realize their benefits.

Migration and common mental disorder: an improvement in mental health over time?

PubMed

Butler, Margaret; Warfa, Nasir; Khatib, Yasmin; Bhui, Kamaldeep

2015-02-01

Global migration is reaching record high levels and UK migrant groups comprise an increasing proportion of the total population. The migratory process causes stress that can affect mental health. There is limited consistent empirical evidence of a longitudinal nature to explain the association between migration and mental health. This review aims to examine the evidence of a relationship between migration and common mental disorder (CMD) amongst migrants over time. A comprehensive search of medical and psychiatric databases for global quantitative empirical studies investigating incidence of CMD amongst adult migrants from 1975 to July 2012 was conducted. Declines in rates of CMD amongst migrants over time were reported by two thirds of the 18 studies reviewed, less than one third of which were statistically significant. On the contrary, three studies showed an increased rate of CMD, one statistically significant. Individual psychological resources, social support, the acculturation process, cultural variations and time since relocation are identified as statistically significant protective factors against the development of CMD amongst migrants. New enlightening points include the significant impact of varying patterns of psychological distress, of which negative is the most adverse for CMD. Migration is an extremely complex process. Further clarification is needed to gain deeper understanding of the relationship between migration and CMD to address contradictions in the literature and health inequalities amongst migrants.

A method of classification for multisource data in remote sensing based on interval-valued probabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Hakil; Swain, Philip H.

1990-01-01

An axiomatic approach to intervalued (IV) probabilities is presented, where the IV probability is defined by a pair of set-theoretic functions which satisfy some pre-specified axioms. On the basis of this approach representation of statistical evidence and combination of multiple bodies of evidence are emphasized. Although IV probabilities provide an innovative means for the representation and combination of evidential information, they make the decision process rather complicated. It entails more intelligent strategies for making decisions. The development of decision rules over IV probabilities is discussed from the viewpoint of statistical pattern recognition. The proposed method, so called evidential reasoning method, is applied to the ground-cover classification of a multisource data set consisting of Multispectral Scanner (MSS) data, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and digital terrain data such as elevation, slope, and aspect. By treating the data sources separately, the method is able to capture both parametric and nonparametric information and to combine them. Then the method is applied to two separate cases of classifying multiband data obtained by a single sensor. In each case a set of multiple sources is obtained by dividing the dimensionally huge data into smaller and more manageable pieces based on the global statistical correlation information. By a divide-and-combine process, the method is able to utilize more features than the conventional maximum likelihood method.

Patient education about anticoagulant medication: is narrative evidence or statistical evidence more effective?

PubMed

Mazor, Kathleen M; Baril, Joann; Dugan, Elizabeth; Spencer, Frederick; Burgwinkle, Pamela; Gurwitz, Jerry H

2007-12-01

To determine the relative impact of incorporating narrative evidence, statistical evidence or both into patient education about warfarin, a widely used oral anticoagulant medication. 600 patients receiving anticoagulant therapy were randomly assigned to view one of three versions of a video depicting a physician-patient encounter where anticoagulation treatment was discussed, or usual care (no video). The videos differed in whether the physician used narrative evidence (patient anecdotes), statistical evidence, or both to highlight key information. 317 patients completed both the baseline and post-test questionnaires. Questions assessed knowledge, beliefs and adherence to medication and laboratory monitoring regimens. All three approaches positively effected patients' warfarin-related knowledge, and beliefs in the importance of lab testing; there was also some indication that viewing a video strengthened belief in the benefits of warfarin. There was some indication that narrative evidence had a greater impact than statistical evidence on beliefs about the importance of lab testing and on knowledge. No other evidence of the differential effectiveness of either approach was found. No statistically significant effect was found on intent to adhere, or documented adherence to lab monitoring. Videos depicting a physician-patient dialogue about warfarin were effective in educating patients about anticoagulant medication, and had a positive impact on their beliefs. The use of narrative evidence in the form of patient anecdotes may be more effective than statistical evidence for some patient outcomes. Patients on oral anticoagulant therapy may benefit from periodic educational efforts reinforcing key medication safety information, even after initial education and ongoing monitoring. Incorporating patient anecdotes into physician-patient dialogues or educational materials may increase the effectiveness of the message.

High-resolution Spectroscopic Abundances of Red Giant Branch Stars in NGC 6584 and NGC 7099

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O’Malley, Erin M.; Chaboyer, Brian

2018-04-01

We obtain high-resolution spectra of red giant branch stars in NGC 6584 and NGC 7099 to perform a detailed abundance analysis. We confirm cluster membership for these stars based on consistent radial velocities measured in this study and small pixel offsets between the observations of Sarajedini et al. and Piotto et al. We find mean metallicities of [Fe/H] = ‑1.53 ± 0.08 dex and [Fe/H] = ‑2.29 ± 0.07 dex for NGC 6584 and NGC 7099, respectively. We also find these clusters to be enhanced in their [α/Fe] ratios, consistent with what is expected for metal-poor globular clusters. Additionally, we find evidence of a statistically significant Na–O anti-correlation in both clusters. Finally, with the use of HST photometry, we compare the location of the enhanced and pristine populations in chromosome maps of the clusters to confirm previous photometric evidence of multiple stellar populations. Although we cannot confirm the nature of the polluter stars responsible for the abundance differences, our results can be used to constrain pollution models.

[Assessment of psychometric properties of the academic involvement questionnaire, expectations version].

PubMed

Pérez V, Cristhian; Ortiz M, Liliana; Fasce H, Eduardo; Parra P, Paula; Matus B, Olga; McColl C, Peter; Torres A, Graciela; Meyer K, Andrea; Márquez U, Carolina; Ortega B, Javiera

2015-11-01

Academic Involvement Questionnaire, Expectations version (CIA-A), assesses the expectations of involvement in studies. It is a relevant predictor of student success. However, the evidence of its validity and reliability in Chile is low, and in the case of Medical students, there is no evidence at all. To evaluate the factorial structure and internal consistency of the CIA-A in Chilean Medical school freshmen. The survey was applied to 340 Medicine freshmen, chosen by non-probability quota sampling. They answered a back-translated version of CIA-A from Portuguese to Spanish, plus a sociodemographic questionnaire. For psychometric analysis of the CIA-A, an exploratory factor analysis was carried on, the reliability of the factors was calculated, a descriptive analysis was conducted and their correlation was assessed. Five factors were identified: vocational, institutional and social involvement, use of resources and student participation. Their reliabilities ranged between Cronbach's alpha values of 0.71 to 0.87. Factors also showed statistically significant correlations between each other. Identified factor structure is theoretically consistent with the structure of original version. It just disagrees in one factor. In addition, the factors' internal consistency were adequate for using them in research. This supports the construct validity and reliability of the CIA-A to assess involvement expectations in medical school freshmen.

Tobacco smoking and oral clefts: a meta-analysis.

PubMed Central

Little, Julian; Cardy, Amanda; Munger, Ronald G.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between maternal smoking and non-syndromic orofacial clefts in infants. METHODS: A meta-analysis of the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy was carried out using data from 24 case-control and cohort studies. FINDINGS: Consistent, moderate and statistically significant associations were found between maternal smoking and cleft lip, with or without cleft palate (relative risk 1.34, 95% confidence interval 1.25-1.44) and between maternal smoking and cleft palate (relative risk 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.35). There was evidence of a modest dose-response effect for cleft lip with or without cleft palate. CONCLUSION: The evidence of an association between maternal tobacco smoking and orofacial clefts is strong enough to justify its use in anti-smoking campaigns. PMID:15112010

Ragweed sublingual tablet immunotherapy: part I - evidence-based clinical efficacy and safety.

PubMed

Creticos, Peter Socrates; Pfaar, Oliver

2018-06-01

Sublingual tablet immunotherapy provides an attractive alternative approach to allergen immunotherapy, as the allergen is administered as a rapidly dissolving sublingual tablet. Part I of this two-part series on the ragweed sublingual tablet describes the dose-ranging clinical work, the safety studies and the clinical outcomes from the pivotal trials which provide clear evidence for statistically significant and clinically meaningful benefit in the treatment of patients suffering from ragweed-induced seasonal allergic rhinitis-conjunctivitis with or without milder asthma. The robust results observed in the clinical trials performed with the ragweed sublingual tablet are defined by the quality of their study design, their use of a standardized allergen extract, their consistent reproducibility in demonstrating therapeutic efficacy and their properly quantified and graded safety data.

Adolescent drinking, academic achievement and leisure time use by secondary education students in a rural area of Crete.

PubMed

Koutra, Kleio; Papadovassilaki, Kyriaki; Kalpoutzaki, Pelagia; Kargatzi, Maria; Roumeliotaki, Theano; Koukouli, Sofia

2012-01-01

This study investigated the alcohol consumption of secondary education students and their relationship to school life and leisure time use with peers. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in March 2007, and the study population consisted of 14- to 19-year-old students living in an agricultural area of Crete. The final sample consisted of 117 individuals (response rate 90.0%). A short previously validated self-completion questionnaire was used collecting information on: personal and family characteristics; school progress; leisure time activities and relations with other adolescents; and alcohol consumption. Alcohol consumption differed significantly between male (75.5%) and female (25.8%) students (P < 0.001). Almost half of the participants (48.3%) reported alcohol consumption during nights out with friends. The mean grade for the previous year for students consuming alcohol was lower compared with those who did not, but the difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.066). Statistical evidence supported the hypothesis that students who consumed alcohol had more absences and this association was stronger for male students. The frequency of alcohol consumption was found to relate to the number of absences for both sexes. Male students who had been suspended from school were more likely to drink alcohol than those who had not been suspended. Statistical evidence also supported the hypotheses that students who spent their free time in cafeterias, bars or billiard halls were more likely to drink alcohol and also consume alcohol at higher frequencies than those that did not spend their free time this way (P = 0.002 and P < 0.001, respectively). More health education programmes and actions are needed at the national and local level to help students, families, schools, communities and the state better understand the real dimensions of the problem. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate for evidence informed health system policymaking in Cameroon and Uganda before and after the introduction of knowledge translation platforms: a structured review of governmental policy documents.

PubMed

Ongolo-Zogo, Pierre; Lavis, John N; Tomson, Goran; Sewankambo, Nelson K

2015-01-01

There is a scarcity of empirical data on African country climates for evidence-informed health system policymaking (EIHSP) to backup the longstanding reputation that research evidence is not valued enough by health policymakers as an information input.Herein, we assess whether and how changes have occurred in the climate for EIHSP before and after the establishment of two Knowledge Translation Platforms housed in government institutions in Cameroon and Uganda since 2006. We merged content analysis techniques and policy sciences analytical frameworks to guide this structured review of governmental policy documents geared at achieving health Millennium Development Goals. We combined i) a quantitative exploration of the usage statistics of research-related words and constructs, citations of types of evidence, and budgets allocated to research-related activities; and (ii) an interpretive exploration using a deductive thematic analysis approach to uncover changes in the institutions, interests, ideas, and external factors displaying the country climate for EIHSP. Descriptive statistics compared quantitative data across countries during the periods 2001-2006 and 2007-2012. We reviewed 54 documents, including 33 grants approved by global health initiatives. The usage statistics of research-related words and constructs showed an increase over time across countries. Varied forms of data, information, or research were instrumentally used to describe the burden and determinants of poverty and health conditions. The use of evidence syntheses to frame poverty and health problems, select strategies, or forecast the expected outcomes has remained sparse over time and across countries. The budgets for research increased over time from 28.496 to 95.467 million Euros (335%) in Cameroon and 38.064 to 58.884 million US dollars (155%) in Uganda, with most resources allocated to health sector performance monitoring and evaluation. The consistent naming of elements pertaining to the climate for EIHSP features the greater influence of external donors through policy transfer. This structured review of governmental policy documents illustrates the nascent conducive climate for EIHSP in Cameroon and Uganda and the persistent undervalue of evidence syntheses. Global and national health stakeholders should raise the profile of evidence syntheses (e.g., systematic reviews) as an information input when shaping policies and programmes.

Hunting Solomonoff's Swans: Exploring the Boundary Between Physics and Statistics in Hydrological Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nearing, G. S.

2014-12-01

Statistical models consistently out-perform conceptual models in the short term, however to account for a nonstationary future (or an unobserved past) scientists prefer to base predictions on unchanging and commutable properties of the universe - i.e., physics. The problem with physically-based hydrology models is, of course, that they aren't really based on physics - they are based on statistical approximations of physical interactions, and we almost uniformly lack an understanding of the entropy associated with these approximations. Thermodynamics is successful precisely because entropy statistics are computable for homogeneous (well-mixed) systems, and ergodic arguments explain the success of Newton's laws to describe systems that are fundamentally quantum in nature. Unfortunately, similar arguments do not hold for systems like watersheds that are heterogeneous at a wide range of scales. Ray Solomonoff formalized the situation in 1968 by showing that given infinite evidence, simultaneously minimizing model complexity and entropy in predictions always leads to the best possible model. The open question in hydrology is about what happens when we don't have infinite evidence - for example, when the future will not look like the past, or when one watershed does not behave like another. How do we isolate stationary and commutable components of watershed behavior? I propose that one possible answer to this dilemma lies in a formal combination of physics and statistics. In this talk I outline my recent analogue (Solomonoff's theorem was digital) of Solomonoff's idea that allows us to quantify the complexity/entropy tradeoff in a way that is intuitive to physical scientists. I show how to formally combine "physical" and statistical methods for model development in a way that allows us to derive the theoretically best possible model given any given physics approximation(s) and available observations. Finally, I apply an analogue of Solomonoff's theorem to evaluate the tradeoff between model complexity and prediction power.

A psychometric evaluation of the Rorschach comprehensive system's perceptual thinking index.

PubMed

Dao, Tam K; Prevatt, Frances

2006-04-01

In this study, we investigated evidence for reliability and validity of the Perceptual Thinking Index (PTI; Exner, 2000a, 2000b) among an adult inpatient population. We conducted reliability and validity analyses on 107 patients who met the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision; American Psychiatric Association, 2000) criteria for a schizophrenia-spectrum disorder (SSD) or mood disorder with no psychotic features (MD). Results provided support for interrater reliability as well as internal consistency of the PTI. Furthermore, the PTI was an effective index in differentiating SSD patients from patients diagnosed with an MD. Finally, the PTI demonstrated adequate diagnostic statistics that can be useful in the classification of patients diagnosed with SSD and MD. We discuss methodological issues, implications for assessment practice, and directions for future research.

Interpretation of correlations in clinical research.

PubMed

Hung, Man; Bounsanga, Jerry; Voss, Maren Wright

2017-11-01

Critically analyzing research is a key skill in evidence-based practice and requires knowledge of research methods, results interpretation, and applications, all of which rely on a foundation based in statistics. Evidence-based practice makes high demands on trained medical professionals to interpret an ever-expanding array of research evidence. As clinical training emphasizes medical care rather than statistics, it is useful to review the basics of statistical methods and what they mean for interpreting clinical studies. We reviewed the basic concepts of correlational associations, violations of normality, unobserved variable bias, sample size, and alpha inflation. The foundations of causal inference were discussed and sound statistical analyses were examined. We discuss four ways in which correlational analysis is misused, including causal inference overreach, over-reliance on significance, alpha inflation, and sample size bias. Recent published studies in the medical field provide evidence of causal assertion overreach drawn from correlational findings. The findings present a primer on the assumptions and nature of correlational methods of analysis and urge clinicians to exercise appropriate caution as they critically analyze the evidence before them and evaluate evidence that supports practice. Critically analyzing new evidence requires statistical knowledge in addition to clinical knowledge. Studies can overstate relationships, expressing causal assertions when only correlational evidence is available. Failure to account for the effect of sample size in the analyses tends to overstate the importance of predictive variables. It is important not to overemphasize the statistical significance without consideration of effect size and whether differences could be considered clinically meaningful.

Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

PubMed

Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-09-02

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.

Dependence of prevalence of contiguous pathways in proteins on structural complexity.

PubMed

Thayer, Kelly M; Galganov, Jesse C; Stein, Avram J

2017-01-01

Allostery is a regulatory mechanism in proteins where an effector molecule binds distal from an active site to modulate its activity. Allosteric signaling may occur via a continuous path of residues linking the active and allosteric sites, which has been suggested by large conformational changes evident in crystal structures. An alternate possibility is that the signal occurs in the realm of ensemble dynamics via an energy landscape change. While the latter was first proposed on theoretical grounds, increasing evidence suggests that such a control mechanism is plausible. A major difficulty for testing the two methods is the ability to definitively determine that a residue is directly involved in allosteric signal transduction. Statistical Coupling Analysis (SCA) is a method that has been successful at predicting pathways, and experimental tests involving mutagenesis or domain substitution provide the best available evidence of signaling pathways. However, ascertaining energetic pathways which need not be contiguous is far more difficult. To date, simple estimates of the statistical significance of a pathway in a protein remain to be established. The focus of this work is to estimate such benchmarks for the statistical significance of contiguous pathways for the null model of selecting residues at random. We found that when 20% of residues in proteins are randomly selected, contiguous pathways at the 6 Å cutoff level were found with success rates of 51% in PDZ, 30% in p53, and 3% in MutS. The results suggest that the significance of pathways may have system specific factors involved. Furthermore, the possible existence of false positives for contiguous pathways implies that signaling could be occurring via alternate routes including those consistent with the energetic landscape model.

Statistical Detection of the He II Transverse Proximity Effect: Evidence for Sustained Quasar Activity for >25 Million Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schmidt, Tobias M.; Worseck, Gabor; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Prochaska, J. Xavier; Crighton, Neil H. M.

2017-09-01

The He II transverse proximity effect—enhanced He II {Ly}α transmission in a background sightline caused by the ionizing radiation of a foreground quasar—offers a unique opportunity to probe the morphology of quasar-driven He II reionization. We conduct a comprehensive spectroscopic survey to find z˜ 3 quasars in the foreground of 22 background quasar sightlines with Hubble Space Telescope/COS He II {Ly}α transmission spectra. With our two-tiered survey strategy, consisting of a deep pencil-beam survey and a shallow wide-field survey, we discover 131 new quasars, which we complement with known SDSS/BOSS quasars in our fields. Using a restricted sample of 66 foreground quasars with inferred He II photoionization rates greater than the expected UV background at these redshifts ({{{Γ }}}{QSO}{He {{II}}}> 5× {10}-16 {{{s}}}-1) we perform the first statistical analysis of the He II transverse proximity effect. Our results show qualitative evidence for a large object-to-object variance: among the four foreground quasars with the highest {{{Γ }}}{QSO}{He {{II}}} only one (previously known) quasar is associated with a significant He II transmission spike. We perform a stacking analysis to average down these fluctuations, and detect an excess in the average He II transmission near the foreground quasars at 3σ significance. This statistical evidence for the transverse proximity effect is corroborated by a clear dependence of the signal strength on {{{Γ }}}{QSO}{He {{II}}}. Our detection places a purely geometrical lower limit on the quasar lifetime of {t}{{Q}}> 25 {Myr}. Improved modeling would additionally constrain quasar obscuration and the mean free path of He II-ionizing photons.

Consistency errors in p-values reported in Spanish psychology journals.

PubMed

Caperos, José Manuel; Pardo, Antonio

2013-01-01

Recent reviews have drawn attention to frequent consistency errors when reporting statistical results. We have reviewed the statistical results reported in 186 articles published in four Spanish psychology journals. Of these articles, 102 contained at least one of the statistics selected for our study: Fisher-F , Student-t and Pearson-c 2 . Out of the 1,212 complete statistics reviewed, 12.2% presented a consistency error, meaning that the reported p-value did not correspond to the reported value of the statistic and its degrees of freedom. In 2.3% of the cases, the correct calculation would have led to a different conclusion than the reported one. In terms of articles, 48% included at least one consistency error, and 17.6% would have to change at least one conclusion. In meta-analytical terms, with a focus on effect size, consistency errors can be considered substantial in 9.5% of the cases. These results imply a need to improve the quality and precision with which statistical results are reported in Spanish psychology journals.

TCDD and cancer: A critical review of epidemiologic studies

PubMed Central

Boffetta, Paolo; Mundt, Kenneth A; Adami, Hans-Olov; Cole, Philip; Mandel, Jack S

2011-01-01

The authors reviewed the epidemiologic studies on exposure to 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) and cancer risk, published since the last full-scale review made by the International Agency for Research on Cancer Monographs program in 1997. The update of a cohort of US herbicide producers generated negative results overall; the internal analysis provided evidence of an increased “all-cancer” risk in the highest exposure category, with a statistically significant exposure-response association in some of the many analyses performed.The update of a similar Dutch cohort did not confirm the previously observed association with TCDD exposure. The updated surveillance of the Seveso population provided evidence of increased all-cancer mortality 15-20 years after exposure among those living in the most contaminated area but might also reflect random variation, as overall excesses in the most recent follow-up were not observed. Corresponding data on cancer incidence offer little support to the mortality results. Updated results from cohort studies of Vietnam veterans potentially exposed to TCDD did not consistently suggest an increased risk of cancer. Results of additional, smaller studies of other occupational groups potentially exposed to TCDD, and of community-based case-control studies, did not provide consistent evidence of an increased cancer risk. In conclusion, recent epidemiological evidence falls far short of conclusively demonstrating a causal link between TCDD exposure and cancer risk in humans. The emphasis on results for overall cancer risk—rather than risk for specific neoplasms—is notjustified on epidemiologic grounds and is nota reason for ignoring the weaknesses of the available evidence. PMID:21718216

Further evidence for formation of a narrow baryon resonance with positive strangeness in K{sup +} collisions with Xe nuclei

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Barmin, V. V.; Asratyan, A. E.; Borisov, V. S.

2007-01-15

We have continued our investigation of the charge-exchange reaction K{sup +}Xe {sup {yields}} K{sup 0}pXe' in the bubble chamber DIANA. In agreement with our previous results based on part of the present statistics, formation of a narrow pK{sup 0} resonance with mass of 1537 {+-} 2 MeV/c{sup 2} is observed in the elementary transition K{sup +}n {sup {yields}} K{sup 0}p on a neutron bound in the xenon nucleus. The visible width of the peak is consistent with being entirely due to instrumental resolution and allows one to place an upper limit on its intrinsic width: {gamma} < 9 MeV/c{sup 2}.more » A more precise estimate of the resonance intrinsic width, {gamma} = 0.36 {+-} 0.11 MeV/c{sup 2}, is obtained from the ratio between the numbers of resonant and nonresonant charge-exchange events. The signal is observed in a restricted interval of incident K{sup +} momentum that is consistent with smearing of a narrow pK{sup 0} resonance by Fermi motion of the target neutron. The statistical significance of the signal is some 7.3, 5.3, and 4.3 standard deviations for the estimators S/{radical}B,S/{radical}(S+B) and S/{radical}(S+2B), respectively. This observation confirms and reinforces our earlier results, and offers strong evidence for formation of a pentaquark baryon with positive strangeness in the charge-exchange reaction K{sup +}n {sup {yields}} K{sup 0}p on a bound neutron.« less

The effect of active video games by ethnicity, sex and fitness: subgroup analysis from a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Foley, Louise; Jiang, Yannan; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Jull, Andrew; Prapavessis, Harry; Rodgers, Anthony; Maddison, Ralph

2014-04-03

The prevention and treatment of childhood obesity is a key public health challenge. However, certain groups within populations have markedly different risk profiles for obesity and related health behaviours. Well-designed subgroup analysis can identify potential differential effects of obesity interventions, which may be important for reducing health inequalities. The study aim was to evaluate the consistency of the effects of active video games across important subgroups in a randomised controlled trial (RCT). A two-arm, parallel RCT was conducted in overweight or obese children (n=322; aged 10-14 years) to determine the effect of active video games on body composition. Statistically significant overall treatment effects favouring the intervention group were found for body mass index, body mass index z-score and percentage body fat at 24 weeks. For these outcomes, pre-specified subgroup analyses were conducted among important baseline demographic (ethnicity, sex) and prognostic (cardiovascular fitness) groups. No statistically significant interaction effects were found between the treatment and subgroup terms in the main regression model (p=0.36 to 0.93), indicating a consistent treatment effect across these groups. Preliminary evidence suggests an active video games intervention had a consistent positive effect on body composition among important subgroups. This may support the use of these games as a pragmatic public health intervention to displace sedentary behaviour with physical activity in young people.

Do genetic variations alter the effects of exercise training on cardiovascular disease and can we identify the candidate variants now or in the future?

PubMed

Hagberg, James M

2011-09-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors are highly heritable, and numerous lines of evidence indicate they have a strong genetic basis. While there is nothing known about the interactive effects of genetics and exercise training on CVD itself, there is at least some literature addressing their interactive effect on CVD risk factors. There is some evidence indicating that CVD risk factor responses to exercise training are also heritable and, thus, may have a genetic basis. While roughly 100 studies have reported significant effects of genetic variants on CVD risk factor responses to exercise training, no definitive conclusions can be generated at the present time, because of the lack of consistent and replicated results and the small sample sizes evident in most studies. There is some evidence supporting "possible" candidate genes that may affect these responses to exercise training: APO E and CETP for plasma lipoprotein-lipid profiles; eNOS, ACE, EDN1, and GNB3 for blood pressure; PPARG for type 2 diabetes phenotypes; and FTO and BAR genes for obesity-related phenotypes. However, while genotyping technologies and statistical methods are advancing rapidly, the primary limitation in this field is the need to generate what in terms of exercise intervention studies would be almost incomprehensible sample sizes. Most recent diabetes, obesity, and blood pressure genetic studies have utilized populations of 10,000-250,000 subjects, which result in the necessary statistical power to detect the magnitude of effects that would probably be expected for the impact of an individual gene on CVD risk factor responses to exercise training. Thus at this time it is difficult to see how this field will advance in the future to the point where robust, consistent, and replicated data are available to address these issues. However, the results of recent large-scale genomewide association studies for baseline CVD risk factors may drive future hypothesis-driven exercise training intervention studies in smaller populations addressing the impact of specific genetic variants on well-defined physiological phenotypes.

Invited commentary: Parental smoking as a risk factor for adult tobacco use: can maternal smoking during pregnancy be distinguished from the social environmental influence during childhood?

PubMed

Alberg, Anthony J; Korte, Jeffrey E

2014-06-15

Parental smoking is known to have prenatal health effects on developing fetuses, and postnatal exposure to secondhand smoke causes adverse health effects during childhood and beyond. Further, there is solid evidence that parental smoking during childhood is a potent risk factor for smoking in offspring. In this issue of the Journal, Rydell et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2014;179(12):1409-1417) add to a growing body of evidence showing that maternal smoking during pregnancy is statistically associated with the long-term risk of tobacco use in offspring. The data revealed a strong signal between maternal smoking during pregnancy and tobacco use in young adulthood, an association that was largely concentrated in snus use but not cigarette smoking. This new study adds to a growing body of epidemiologic evidence that consistently points toward maternal smoking during pregnancy being associated with an increased risk of offspring tobacco use in later life. There is also evidence from animal models indicating that fetal exposure to maternal nicotine use in utero can have a durable impact on the neural pathways that affect lifetime sensitivity to nicotine. This is an important research topic that continues to yield a consistent signal despite an array of inferential challenges. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The effect of a major cigarette price change on smoking behavior in california: a zero-inflated negative binomial model.

PubMed

Sheu, Mei-Ling; Hu, Teh-Wei; Keeler, Theodore E; Ong, Michael; Sung, Hai-Yen

2004-08-01

The objective of this paper is to determine the price sensitivity of smokers in their consumption of cigarettes, using evidence from a major increase in California cigarette prices due to Proposition 10 and the Tobacco Settlement. The study sample consists of individual survey data from Behavioral Risk Factor Survey (BRFS) and price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics between 1996 and 1999. A zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model was applied for the statistical analysis. The statistical model showed that price did not have an effect on reducing the estimated prevalence of smoking. However, it indicated that among smokers the price elasticity was at the level of -0.46 and statistically significant. Since smoking prevalence is significantly lower than it was a decade ago, price increases are becoming less effective as an inducement for hard-core smokers to quit, although they may respond by decreasing consumption. For those who only smoke occasionally (many of them being young adults) price increases alone may not be an effective inducement to quit smoking. Additional underlying behavioral factors need to be identified so that more effective anti-smoking strategies can be developed.

Statistical Quality Control of Moisture Data in GEOS DAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, D. P.; Rukhovets, L.; Todling, R.

1999-01-01

A new statistical quality control algorithm was recently implemented in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The final step in the algorithm consists of an adaptive buddy check that either accepts or rejects outlier observations based on a local statistical analysis of nearby data. A basic assumption in any such test is that the observed field is spatially coherent, in the sense that nearby data can be expected to confirm each other. However, the buddy check resulted in excessive rejection of moisture data, especially during the Northern Hemisphere summer. The analysis moisture variable in GEOS DAS is water vapor mixing ratio. Observational evidence shows that the distribution of mixing ratio errors is far from normal. Furthermore, spatial correlations among mixing ratio errors are highly anisotropic and difficult to identify. Both factors contribute to the poor performance of the statistical quality control algorithm. To alleviate the problem, we applied the buddy check to relative humidity data instead. This variable explicitly depends on temperature and therefore exhibits a much greater spatial coherence. As a result, reject rates of moisture data are much more reasonable and homogeneous in time and space.

Moderators and Mediators in Social Work Research: Toward a More Ecologically Valid Evidence Base for Practice

PubMed Central

Magill, Molly

2012-01-01

Summary Evidence-based practice involves the consistent and critical consumption of the social work research literature. As methodologies advance, primers to guide such efforts are often needed. In the present work, common statistical methods for testing moderation and mediation are identified, summarized, and corresponding examples, drawn from the substance abuse, domestic violence, and mental health literature, are provided. Findings While methodologically complex, analyses of these third variable effects can provide an optimal fit for the complexity involved in the provision of evidence-based social work services. While a moderator may identify the trait or state requirement for a causal relationship to occur, a mediator is concerned with the transmission of that relationship. In social work practice, these are questions of “under what conditions and for whom?” and of the “how?” of behavior change. Implications Implications include a need for greater attention to these methods among practitioners and evaluation researchers. With knowledge gained through the present review, social workers can benefit from a more ecologically valid evidence base for practice. PMID:22833701

An instrument to assess the statistical intensity of medical research papers.

PubMed

Nieminen, Pentti; Virtanen, Jorma I; Vähänikkilä, Hannu

2017-01-01

There is widespread evidence that statistical methods play an important role in original research articles, especially in medical research. The evaluation of statistical methods and reporting in journals suffers from a lack of standardized methods for assessing the use of statistics. The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate an instrument to assess the statistical intensity in research articles in a standardized way. A checklist-type measure scale was developed by selecting and refining items from previous reports about the statistical contents of medical journal articles and from published guidelines for statistical reporting. A total of 840 original medical research articles that were published between 2007-2015 in 16 journals were evaluated to test the scoring instrument. The total sum of all items was used to assess the intensity between sub-fields and journals. Inter-rater agreement was examined using a random sample of 40 articles. Four raters read and evaluated the selected articles using the developed instrument. The scale consisted of 66 items. The total summary score adequately discriminated between research articles according to their study design characteristics. The new instrument could also discriminate between journals according to their statistical intensity. The inter-observer agreement measured by the ICC was 0.88 between all four raters. Individual item analysis showed very high agreement between the rater pairs, the percentage agreement ranged from 91.7% to 95.2%. A reliable and applicable instrument for evaluating the statistical intensity in research papers was developed. It is a helpful tool for comparing the statistical intensity between sub-fields and journals. The novel instrument may be applied in manuscript peer review to identify papers in need of additional statistical review.

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

2001-01-01

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

FOXP2 targets show evidence of positive selection in European populations.

PubMed

Ayub, Qasim; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Chen, Yuan; Xue, Yali; Hu, Min; Vernes, Sonja C; Fisher, Simon E; Tyler-Smith, Chris

2013-05-02

Forkhead box P2 (FOXP2) is a highly conserved transcription factor that has been implicated in human speech and language disorders and plays important roles in the plasticity of the developing brain. The pattern of nucleotide polymorphisms in FOXP2 in modern populations suggests that it has been the target of positive (Darwinian) selection during recent human evolution. In our study, we searched for evidence of selection that might have followed FOXP2 adaptations in modern humans. We examined whether or not putative FOXP2 targets identified by chromatin-immunoprecipitation genomic screening show evidence of positive selection. We developed an algorithm that, for any given gene list, systematically generates matched lists of control genes from the Ensembl database, collates summary statistics for three frequency-spectrum-based neutrality tests from the low-coverage resequencing data of the 1000 Genomes Project, and determines whether these statistics are significantly different between the given gene targets and the set of controls. Overall, there was strong evidence of selection of FOXP2 targets in Europeans, but not in the Han Chinese, Japanese, or Yoruba populations. Significant outliers included several genes linked to cellular movement, reproduction, development, and immune cell trafficking, and 13 of these constituted a significant network associated with cardiac arteriopathy. Strong signals of selection were observed for CNTNAP2 and RBFOX1, key neurally expressed genes that have been consistently identified as direct FOXP2 targets in multiple studies and that have themselves been associated with neurodevelopmental disorders involving language dysfunction. Copyright © 2013 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimally estimating the sample mean from the sample size, median, mid-range, and/or mid-quartile range.

PubMed

Luo, Dehui; Wan, Xiang; Liu, Jiming; Tong, Tiejun

2018-06-01

The era of big data is coming, and evidence-based medicine is attracting increasing attention to improve decision making in medical practice via integrating evidence from well designed and conducted clinical research. Meta-analysis is a statistical technique widely used in evidence-based medicine for analytically combining the findings from independent clinical trials to provide an overall estimation of a treatment effectiveness. The sample mean and standard deviation are two commonly used statistics in meta-analysis but some trials use the median, the minimum and maximum values, or sometimes the first and third quartiles to report the results. Thus, to pool results in a consistent format, researchers need to transform those information back to the sample mean and standard deviation. In this article, we investigate the optimal estimation of the sample mean for meta-analysis from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. A major drawback in the literature is that the sample size, needless to say its importance, is either ignored or used in a stepwise but somewhat arbitrary manner, e.g. the famous method proposed by Hozo et al. We solve this issue by incorporating the sample size in a smoothly changing weight in the estimators to reach the optimal estimation. Our proposed estimators not only improve the existing ones significantly but also share the same virtue of the simplicity. The real data application indicates that our proposed estimators are capable to serve as "rules of thumb" and will be widely applied in evidence-based medicine.

A study of statistics anxiety levels of graduate dental hygiene students.

PubMed

Welch, Paul S; Jacks, Mary E; Smiley, Lynn A; Walden, Carolyn E; Clark, William D; Nguyen, Carol A

2015-02-01

In light of increased emphasis on evidence-based practice in the profession of dental hygiene, it is important that today's dental hygienist comprehend statistical measures to fully understand research articles, and thereby apply scientific evidence to practice. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate statistics anxiety among graduate dental hygiene students in the U.S. A web-based self-report, anonymous survey was emailed to directors of 17 MSDH programs in the U.S. with a request to distribute to graduate students. The survey collected data on statistics anxiety, sociodemographic characteristics and evidence-based practice. Statistic anxiety was assessed using the Statistical Anxiety Rating Scale. Study significance level was α=0.05. Only 8 of the 17 invited programs participated in the study. Statistical Anxiety Rating Scale data revealed graduate dental hygiene students experience low to moderate levels of statistics anxiety. Specifically, the level of anxiety on the Interpretation Anxiety factor indicated this population could struggle with making sense of scientific research. A decisive majority (92%) of students indicated statistics is essential for evidence-based practice and should be a required course for all dental hygienists. This study served to identify statistics anxiety in a previously unexplored population. The findings should be useful in both theory building and in practical applications. Furthermore, the results can be used to direct future research. Copyright © 2015 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

Executive functioning and substance use in adolescence: Neurobiological and behavioral perspectives.

PubMed

Kim-Spoon, Jungmeen; Kahn, Rachel E; Lauharatanahirun, Nina; Deater-Deckard, Kirby; Bickel, Warren K; Chiu, Pearl H; King-Casas, Brooks

2017-06-01

The current review is guided by the theoretical perspective that emphasizes the regulating role of executive functioning (Carver et al., 2009) and presents studies that elucidate the ways that executive functioning (inhibition and working memory) explain individual differences in adolescent substance use independently or by regulating the reactive system (reward and punishment sensitivity). Behavioral studies indicate that main effects of executive functioning on adolescent substance use are often nonsignificant or weak in effect sizes. In contrast, emerging evidence suggests consistent and stronger regulating effects of executive functioning over reward and punishment sensitivity. Functional neuroimaging studies reveal significant associations between executive functioning task-related hemodynamic responses and substance use with strong effect sizes. There is also direct evidence from studies testing statistical interactions of the regulating effects of EF-related brain activation, and indirect evidence in studies examining functional connectivity, temporal discounting, and reinforced control. We note key future directions and ways to address limitations in existing work. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Within- and between-task consistency in hand use as a means of characterizing hand preferences in captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Hopkins, William D; Gardner, Molly; Mingle, Morgan; Reamer, Lisa; Schapiro, Steven J

2013-11-01

There remain considerable questions regarding the evidence for population-level handedness in nonhuman primates when compared with humans. One challenge in comparing human and nonhuman primate handedness involves the procedures used to characterize individual handedness. Studies of human handedness use consistency in hand use within and between tasks as a basis for hand preference classification. In contrast, studies of handedness in nonhuman primates use statistical criteria for classifying handedness. In this study, we examined within- and between-task consistency in hand use as a means of characterizing individual handedness in a sample of 300 captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Chimpanzees showed population-level right-handedness for both within- and between-tasks consistency, though the proportion of right-handed chimpanzees was lower than what has typically been reported for humans. We further found that there were small, but significant, associations in hand use between measures. There were no significant sex or colony effects on the distribution of handedness. The results are discussed in the context of theories on the evolution of handedness in nonhuman primates.

Within- and Between-Task Consistency in Hand Use as a Means of Characterizing Hand Preferences in Captive Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

PubMed Central

Hopkins, William D.; Gardner, Molly; Mingle, Morgan; Reamer, Lisa; Schapiro, Steven J.

2013-01-01

There remain considerable questions regarding the evidence for population-level handedness in nonhuman primates when compared with humans. One challenge in comparing human and nonhuman primate handedness involves the procedures used to characterize individual handedness. Studies of human handedness use consistency in hand use within and between tasks as a basis for hand preference classification. In contrast, studies of handedness in nonhuman primates use statistical criteria for classifying handedness. In this study, we examined within- and between-task consistency in hand use as a means of characterizing individual handedness in a sample of 300 captive chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes). Chimpanzees showed population-level right-handedness for both within- and between-tasks consistency, though the proportion of right-handed chimpanzees was lower than what has typically been reported for humans. We further found that there were small, but significant, associations in hand use between measures. There were no significant sex or colony effects on the distribution of handedness. The results are discussed in the context of theories on the evolution of handedness in nonhuman primates. PMID:23356440

Evaluation of the Feasibility of Screening Patients for Early Signs of Lung Carcinoma in Web Search Logs.

PubMed

White, Ryen W; Horvitz, Eric

2017-03-01

A statistical model that predicts the appearance of strong evidence of a lung carcinoma diagnosis via analysis of large-scale anonymized logs of web search queries from millions of people across the United States. To evaluate the feasibility of screening patients at risk of lung carcinoma via analysis of signals from online search activity. We identified people who issue special queries that provide strong evidence of a recent diagnosis of lung carcinoma. We then considered patterns of symptoms expressed as searches about concerning symptoms over several months prior to the appearance of the landmark web queries. We built statistical classifiers that predict the future appearance of landmark queries based on the search log signals. This was a retrospective log analysis of the online activity of millions of web searchers seeking health-related information online. Of web searchers who queried for symptoms related to lung carcinoma, some (n = 5443 of 4 813 985) later issued queries that provide strong evidence of recent clinical diagnosis of lung carcinoma and are regarded as positive cases in our analysis. Additional evidence on the reliability of these queries as representing clinical diagnoses is based on the significant increase in follow-on searches for treatments and medications for these searchers and on the correlation between lung carcinoma incidence rates and our log-based statistics. The remaining symptom searchers (n = 4 808 542) are regarded as negative cases. Performance of the statistical model for early detection from online search behavior, for different lead times, different sets of signals, and different cohorts of searchers stratified by potential risk. The statistical classifier predicting the future appearance of landmark web queries based on search log signals identified searchers who later input queries consistent with a lung carcinoma diagnosis, with a true-positive rate ranging from 3% to 57% for false-positive rates ranging from 0.00001 to 0.001, respectively. The methods can be used to identify people at highest risk up to a year in advance of the inferred diagnosis time. The 5 factors associated with the highest relative risk (RR) were evidence of family history (RR = 7.548; 95% CI, 3.937-14.470), age (RR = 3.558; 95% CI, 3.357-3.772), radon (RR = 2.529; 95% CI, 1.137-5.624), primary location (RR = 2.463; 95% CI, 1.364-4.446), and occupation (RR = 1.969; 95% CI, 1.143-3.391). Evidence of smoking (RR = 1.646; 95% CI, 1.032-2.260) was important but not top-ranked, which was due to the difficulty of identifying smoking history from search terms. Pattern recognition based on data drawn from large-scale web search queries holds opportunity for identifying risk factors and frames new directions with early detection of lung carcinoma.

Public accountants' field dependence: Canadian evidence.

PubMed

Hicks, Elizabeth; Bagg, Robert; Doyle, Wendy; Young, Jeffrey D

2007-12-01

The cognitive styles of 113 practicing, professional accountants from Nova Scotia, Canada were examined using the Group Embedded Figures Test. They completed a demographic survey for descriptive information as well as their rank in the firm and preferred area of professional practice. Analysis suggested professional accountants tend to be more analytical than intuitive in cognitive style and, consistent with recent findings in other fields, men and women in accounting do not appear to be different in cognitive style. No statistically significant differences were found on the embedded figures scores across ranks of trainee, manager, and partner or across select, preferred areas of professional practice.

CHILD CARE AVAILABILITY AND FIRST-BIRTH TIMING IN NORWAY*

PubMed Central

Rindfuss, Ronald R.; Guilkey, David; Morgan, S. Philip; Kravdal, Øystein; Guzzo, Karen Benjamin

2010-01-01

Both sociological and economic theories posit that widely available, high-quality, and affordable child care should have pronatalist effects. Yet to date, the empirical evidence has not consistently supported this hypothesis. We argue that this previous empirical work has been plagued by the inability to control for endogenous placement of day care centers and the possibility that people migrate to take advantage of the availability of child care facilities. Using Norwegian register data and a statistically defensible fixed-effects model, we find strong positive effects of day care availability on the transition to motherhood. PMID:17583309

Towards evidence-based computational statistics: lessons from clinical research on the role and design of real-data benchmark studies.

PubMed

Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Wilson, Rory; Hapfelmeier, Alexander

2017-09-09

The goal of medical research is to develop interventions that are in some sense superior, with respect to patient outcome, to interventions currently in use. Similarly, the goal of research in methodological computational statistics is to develop data analysis tools that are themselves superior to the existing tools. The methodology of the evaluation of medical interventions continues to be discussed extensively in the literature and it is now well accepted that medicine should be at least partly "evidence-based". Although we statisticians are convinced of the importance of unbiased, well-thought-out study designs and evidence-based approaches in the context of clinical research, we tend to ignore these principles when designing our own studies for evaluating statistical methods in the context of our methodological research. In this paper, we draw an analogy between clinical trials and real-data-based benchmarking experiments in methodological statistical science, with datasets playing the role of patients and methods playing the role of medical interventions. Through this analogy, we suggest directions for improvement in the design and interpretation of studies which use real data to evaluate statistical methods, in particular with respect to dataset inclusion criteria and the reduction of various forms of bias. More generally, we discuss the concept of "evidence-based" statistical research, its limitations and its impact on the design and interpretation of real-data-based benchmark experiments. We suggest that benchmark studies-a method of assessment of statistical methods using real-world datasets-might benefit from adopting (some) concepts from evidence-based medicine towards the goal of more evidence-based statistical research.

A systematic review and meta-analysis on herpes zoster and the risk of cardiac and cerebrovascular events

PubMed Central

Erskine, Nathaniel; Tran, Hoang; Levin, Leonard; Ulbricht, Christine; Fingeroth, Joyce; Kiefe, Catarina; Singh, Sonal

2017-01-01

Background Patients who develop herpes zoster or herpes zoster ophthalmicus may be at risk for cerebrovascular and cardiac complications. We systematically reviewed the published literature to determine the association between herpes zoster and its subtypes with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events. Methods/Results Systematic searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), SCOPUS (Embase) and Google Scholar were performed in December 2016. Eligible studies were cohort, case-control, and self-controlled case-series examining the association between herpes zoster or subtypes of herpes zoster with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events including stroke, transient ischemic attack, coronary heart disease, and myocardial infarction. Data on the occurrence of the examined events were abstracted. Odds ratios and their accompanying confidence intervals were estimated using random and fixed effects models with statistical heterogeneity estimated with the I2 statistic. Twelve studies examining 7.9 million patients up to 28 years after the onset of herpes zoster met our pre-defined eligibility criteria. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses showed that herpes zoster, type unspecified, and herpes zoster ophthalmicus were associated with a significantly increased risk of cerebrovascular events, without any evidence of statistical heterogeneity. Our meta-analysis also found a significantly increased risk of cardiac events associated with herpes zoster, type unspecified. Conclusions Our results are consistent with the accumulating body of evidence that herpes zoster and herpes zoster ophthalmicus are significantly associated with cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events. PMID:28749981

A systematic review and meta-analysis on herpes zoster and the risk of cardiac and cerebrovascular events.

PubMed

Erskine, Nathaniel; Tran, Hoang; Levin, Leonard; Ulbricht, Christine; Fingeroth, Joyce; Kiefe, Catarina; Goldberg, Robert J; Singh, Sonal

2017-01-01

Patients who develop herpes zoster or herpes zoster ophthalmicus may be at risk for cerebrovascular and cardiac complications. We systematically reviewed the published literature to determine the association between herpes zoster and its subtypes with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events. Systematic searches of PubMed (MEDLINE), SCOPUS (Embase) and Google Scholar were performed in December 2016. Eligible studies were cohort, case-control, and self-controlled case-series examining the association between herpes zoster or subtypes of herpes zoster with the occurrence of cerebrovascular and cardiac events including stroke, transient ischemic attack, coronary heart disease, and myocardial infarction. Data on the occurrence of the examined events were abstracted. Odds ratios and their accompanying confidence intervals were estimated using random and fixed effects models with statistical heterogeneity estimated with the I2 statistic. Twelve studies examining 7.9 million patients up to 28 years after the onset of herpes zoster met our pre-defined eligibility criteria. Random and fixed effects meta-analyses showed that herpes zoster, type unspecified, and herpes zoster ophthalmicus were associated with a significantly increased risk of cerebrovascular events, without any evidence of statistical heterogeneity. Our meta-analysis also found a significantly increased risk of cardiac events associated with herpes zoster, type unspecified. Our results are consistent with the accumulating body of evidence that herpes zoster and herpes zoster ophthalmicus are significantly associated with cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events.

Statistical inconsistencies in the KiDS-450 data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Efstathiou, George; Lemos, Pablo

2018-05-01

The Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) has been used in several recent papers to infer constraints on the amplitude of the matter power spectrum and matter density at low redshift. Some of these analyses have claimed tension with the Planck Λ cold dark matter cosmology at the ˜2σ-3σ level, perhaps indicative of new physics. However, Planck is consistent with other low-redshift probes of the matter power spectrum such as redshift-space distortions and the combined galaxy-mass and galaxy-galaxy power spectra. Here, we perform consistency tests of the KiDS data, finding internal tensions for various cuts of the data at ˜2.2σ-3.5σ significance. Until these internal tensions are understood, we argue that it is premature to claim evidence for new physics from KiDS. We review the consistency between KiDS and other weak lensing measurements of S8, highlighting the importance of intrinsic alignments for precision cosmology.

Cultural variation in implicit independence: An extension of Kitayama et al. ().

PubMed

Park, Jiyoung; Uchida, Yukiko; Kitayama, Shinobu

2016-08-01

Previous research shows that European Americans are consistently more independent (or less interdependent) than Japanese when implicit indices are used to assess independence (vs. interdependence). The present work extended this evidence by including a novel implicit association test (IAT), as an index of implicit attitude towards independence and interdependence. Consistent with the previous findings, as compared to Japanese, Americans were significantly higher in multiple indices of implicit independence (vs. interdependence) including personal (vs. social) self-definition, experience of disengaging (vs. engaging) emotions and personal (vs. social) form of happiness. Furthermore, as compared to Japanese, Americans had a significantly more positive implicit attitude towards independence assessed with the IAT. As also observed in the previous research, explicit measures showed inconsistent cross-cultural patterns. Lastly, we observed little statistical within-culture coherence among the implicit measures of independence (vs. interdependence), consistent with a view that the implicit indices capture alternative ways for individuals to achieve the cultural mandate of independence or interdependence. © 2015 International Union of Psychological Science.

Multiple Statistical Models Based Analysis of Causative Factors and Loess Landslides in Tianshui City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Su, Xing; Meng, Xingmin; Ye, Weilin; Wu, Weijiang; Liu, Xingrong; Wei, Wanhong

2018-03-01

Tianshui City is one of the mountainous cities that are threatened by severe geo-hazards in Gansu Province, China. Statistical probability models have been widely used in analyzing and evaluating geo-hazards such as landslide. In this research, three approaches (Certainty Factor Method, Weight of Evidence Method and Information Quantity Method) were adopted to quantitively analyze the relationship between the causative factors and the landslides, respectively. The source data used in this study are including the SRTM DEM and local geological maps in the scale of 1:200,000. 12 causative factors (i.e., altitude, slope, aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, roughness, relief amplitude, and distance to rivers, distance to faults, distance to roads, and the stratum lithology) were selected to do correlation analysis after thorough investigation of geological conditions and historical landslides. The results indicate that the outcomes of the three models are fairly consistent.

Recurrent Idiopathic Catatonia: Implications beyond the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 5th Edition.

PubMed

Caroff, Stanley N; Hurford, Irene; Bleier, Henry R; Gorton, Gregg E; Campbell, E Cabrina

2015-08-31

We describe a case of recurrent, life-threatening, catatonic stupor, without evidence of any associated medical, toxic or mental disorder. This case provides support for the inclusion of a separate category of "unspecified catatonia" in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 5th edition (DSM-5) to be used to classify idiopathic cases, which appears to be consistent with Kahlbaum's concept of catatonia as a distinct disease state. But beyond the limited, cross-sectional, syndromal approach adopted in DSM-5, this case more importantly illustrates the prognostic and therapeutic significance of the longitudinal course of illness in differentiating cases of catatonia, which is better defined in the Wernicke-Kleist-Leonhard classification system. The importance of differentiating cases of catatonia is further supported by the efficacy of antipsychotics in treatment of this case, contrary to conventional guidelines.

Lagrangian single-particle turbulent statistics through the Hilbert-Huang transform.

PubMed

Huang, Yongxiang; Biferale, Luca; Calzavarini, Enrico; Sun, Chao; Toschi, Federico

2013-04-01

The Hilbert-Huang transform is applied to analyze single-particle Lagrangian velocity data from numerical simulations of hydrodynamic turbulence. The velocity trajectory is described in terms of a set of intrinsic mode functions C(i)(t) and of their instantaneous frequency ω(i)(t). On the basis of this decomposition we define the ω-conditioned statistical moments of the C(i) modes, named q-order Hilbert spectra (HS). We show that such quantities have enhanced scaling properties as compared to traditional Fourier transform- or correlation-based (structure functions) statistical indicators, thus providing better insights into the turbulent energy transfer process. We present clear empirical evidence that the energylike quantity, i.e., the second-order HS, displays a linear scaling in time in the inertial range, as expected from a dimensional analysis. We also measure high-order moment scaling exponents in a direct way, without resorting to the extended self-similarity procedure. This leads to an estimate of the Lagrangian structure function exponents which are consistent with the multifractal prediction in the Lagrangian frame as proposed by Biferale et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 064502 (2004)].

Consistency of the Planck CMB data and ΛCDM cosmology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shafieloo, Arman; Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar, E-mail: shafieloo@kasi.re.kr, E-mail: dhiraj.kumar.hazra@apc.univ-paris7.fr

We test the consistency between Planck temperature and polarization power spectra and the concordance model of Λ Cold Dark Matter cosmology (ΛCDM) within the framework of Crossing statistics. We find that Planck TT best fit ΛCDM power spectrum is completely consistent with EE power spectrum data while EE best fit ΛCDM power spectrum is not consistent with TT data. However, this does not point to any systematic or model-data discrepancy since in the Planck EE data, uncertainties are much larger compared to the TT data. We also investigate the possibility of any deviation from ΛCDM model analyzing the Planck 2015more » data. Results from TT, TE and EE data analysis indicate that no deviation is required beyond the flexibility of the concordance ΛCDM model. Our analysis thus rules out any strong evidence for beyond the concordance model in the Planck spectra data. We also report a mild amplitude difference comparing temperature and polarization data, where temperature data seems to have slightly lower amplitude than expected (consistently at all multiples), as we assume both temperature and polarization data are realizations of the same underlying cosmology.« less

Impact of statin adherence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes: a systematic review

PubMed Central

De Vera, Mary A; Bhole, Vidula; Burns, Lindsay C; Lacaille, Diane

2014-01-01

Aims While suboptimal adherence to statin medication has been quantified in real-world patient settings, a better understanding of its impact is needed, particularly with respect to distinct problems of medication taking. Our aim was to synthesize current evidence on the impacts of statin adherence, discontinuation and persistence on cardiovascular disease and mortality outcomes. Methods We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies using a mapped search of Medline, Embase and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts databases. Observational studies that met the following criteria were included: defined patient population; statin adherence exposure; defined study outcome [i.e. cardiovascular disease (CVD), mortality]; and reporting of statin-specific results. Results Overall, 28 studies were included, with 19 studies evaluating outcomes associated with statin adherence, six with statin discontinuation and three with statin persistence. Among adherence studies, the proportion of days covered was the most widely used measure, with the majority of studies reporting increased risk of CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 5.26) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.25 to 2.54) among non-adherent individuals. There was greater methodological variability in discontinuation and persistence studies. However, findings of increased CVD (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.22 to 1.67) and mortality (statistically significant risk estimates ranging from 1.79 to 5.00) among nonpersistent individuals were also consistently reported. Conclusions Observational studies consistently report an increased risk of adverse outcomes associated with poor statin adherence. These findings have important implications for patients and physicians and emphasize the importance of monitoring and encouraging adherence to statin therapy. PMID:25364801

An analysis of the relationship of flight hours and naval rotary wing aviation mishaps

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically significant effects on...estimates found enough evidence to support indicators used for sequestration, high flight hours, night flight, and overwater flight had statistically ...38 C. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ................................................................38 D

Shock Index Correlates with Extravasation on Angiographs of Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage: A Logistics Regression Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nakasone, Yutaka, E-mail: n-yutaka@cd5.so-net.ne.jp; Ikeda, Osamu; Yamashita, Yasuyuki

We applied multivariate analysis to the clinical findings in patients with acute gastrointestinal (GI) hemorrhage and compared the relationship between these findings and angiographic evidence of extravasation. Our study population consisted of 46 patients with acute GI bleeding. They were divided into two groups. In group 1 we retrospectively analyzed 41 angiograms obtained in 29 patients (age range, 25-91 years; average, 71 years). Their clinical findings including the shock index (SI), diastolic blood pressure, hemoglobin, platelet counts, and age, which were quantitatively analyzed. In group 2, consisting of 17 patients (age range, 21-78 years; average, 60 years), we prospectively appliedmore » statistical analysis by a logistics regression model to their clinical findings and then assessed 21 angiograms obtained in these patients to determine whether our model was useful for predicting the presence of angiographic evidence of extravasation. On 18 of 41 (43.9%) angiograms in group 1 there was evidence of extravasation; in 3 patients it was demonstrated only by selective angiography. Factors significantly associated with angiographic visualization of extravasation were the SI and patient age. For differentiation between cases with and cases without angiographic evidence of extravasation, the maximum cutoff point was between 0.51 and 0.0.53. Of the 21 angiograms obtained in group 2, 13 (61.9%) showed evidence of extravasation; in 1 patient it was demonstrated only on selective angiograms. We found that in 90% of the cases, the prospective application of our model correctly predicted the angiographically confirmed presence or absence of extravasation. We conclude that in patients with GI hemorrhage, angiographic visualization of extravasation is associated with the pre-embolization SI. Patients with a high SI value should undergo study to facilitate optimal treatment planning.« less

A practical comparison of algorithms for the measurement of multiscale entropy in neural time series data.

PubMed

Kuntzelman, Karl; Jack Rhodes, L; Harrington, Lillian N; Miskovic, Vladimir

2018-06-01

There is a broad family of statistical methods for capturing time series regularity, with increasingly widespread adoption by the neuroscientific community. A common feature of these methods is that they permit investigators to quantify the entropy of brain signals - an index of unpredictability/complexity. Despite the proliferation of algorithms for computing entropy from neural time series data there is scant evidence concerning their relative stability and efficiency. Here we evaluated several different algorithmic implementations (sample, fuzzy, dispersion and permutation) of multiscale entropy in terms of their stability across sessions, internal consistency and computational speed, accuracy and precision using a combination of electroencephalogram (EEG) and synthetic 1/ƒ noise signals. Overall, we report fair to excellent internal consistency and longitudinal stability over a one-week period for the majority of entropy estimates, with several caveats. Computational timing estimates suggest distinct advantages for dispersion and permutation entropy over other entropy estimates. Considered alongside the psychometric evidence, we suggest several ways in which researchers can maximize computational resources (without sacrificing reliability), especially when working with high-density M/EEG data or multivoxel BOLD time series signals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factor structure of the Shoulder Pain and Disability Index in patients with adhesive capsulitis.

PubMed

Tveitå, Einar Kristian; Sandvik, Leiv; Ekeberg, Ole Marius; Juel, Niels Gunnar; Bautz-Holter, Erik

2008-07-17

The Shoulder Pain and Disability Index (SPADI) is a self-administered questionnaire that aims to measure pain and disability associated with shoulder disease. It consists of a pain section and a disability section with 13 items being responded to on visual analogue scales. Few researchers have investigated SPADI validity in specified diagnostic groups, although the selection of an evaluative instrument should be based on evidence of validity in the target patient group. The aim of the present study was to investigate factor structure of the SPADI in a study population of patients with adhesive capsulitis. The questionnaire was administered to 191 patients with adhesive capsulitis. Descriptive statistics for items and a comparison of scores for the two subscales were produced. Internal consistency was analyzed by use of the Cronbach alpha and a principal components analysis with varimax rotation was conducted. Study design was cross-sectional. Two factors were extracted, but the factor structure failed to support the original division of items into separate pain and disability sections. We found minimal evidence to justify the use of separate subscales for pain and disability. It is our impression that the SPADI should be viewed as essentially unidimensional in patients with adhesive capsulitis.

Risk, statistical inference, and the law of evidence: the use of epidemiological data in toxic tort cases.

PubMed

Brannigan, V M; Bier, V M; Berg, C

1992-09-01

Toxic torts are product liability cases dealing with alleged injuries due to chemical or biological hazards such as radiation, thalidomide, or Agent Orange. Toxic tort cases typically rely more heavily than other product liability cases on indirect or statistical proof of injury. There have been numerous theoretical analyses of statistical proof of injury in toxic tort cases. However, there have been only a handful of actual legal decisions regarding the use of such statistical evidence, and most of those decisions have been inconclusive. Recently, a major case from the Fifth Circuit, involving allegations that Benedectin (a morning sickness drug) caused birth defects, was decided entirely on the basis of statistical inference. This paper examines both the conceptual basis of that decision, and also the relationships among statistical inference, scientific evidence, and the rules of product liability in general.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Subaru Telescope limits on cosmological variations in the fine-structure constant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, Michael T.; Cooksey, Kathy L.

2017-11-01

Previous, large samples of quasar absorption spectra have indicated some evidence for relative variations in the fine-structure constant (Δα/α) across the sky. However, they were likely affected by long-range distortions of the wavelength calibration, so it is important to establish a statistical sample of more reliable results from multiple telescopes. Here we triple the sample of Δα/α measurements from the Subaru Telescope which have been `supercalibrated' to correct for long-range distortions. A blinded analysis of the metallic ions in six intervening absorption systems in two Subaru quasar spectra provides no evidence for α variation, with a weighted mean of Δα/α = 3.0 ± 2.8stat ± 2.0sys parts per million (1σ statistical and systematic uncertainties). The main remaining systematic effects are uncertainties in the long-range distortion corrections, absorption profile models, and errors from redispersing multiple quasar exposures on to a common wavelength grid. The results also assume that terrestrial isotopic abundances prevail in the absorbers; assuming only the dominant terrestrial isotope is present significantly lowers Δα/α, though it is still consistent with zero. Given the location of the two quasars on the sky, our results do not support the evidence for spatial α variation, especially when combined with the 21 other recent measurements which were corrected for, or resistant to, long-range distortions. Our spectra and absorption profile fits are publicly available.

Wall enhancement on high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging may predict an unsteady state of an intracranial saccular aneurysm.

PubMed

Hu, Peng; Yang, Qi; Wang, Dan-Dan; Guan, Shao-Chen; Zhang, Hong-Qi

2016-10-01

The aneurysm wall has been reported to play a critical role in the formation, development, and even rupture of an aneurysm. We used high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (HRMRI) to investigate the aneurysm wall in an effort to identify evidence of inflammation invasion and define its relationship with aneurysm behavior. Patients with intracranial aneurysms who were prospectively evaluated using HRMRI between July 2013 and June 2014 were enrolled in this study. The aneurysm's wall enhancement and evidence of inflammation invasion were determined. In addition, the relationship between aneurysm wall enhancement and aneurysm size and symptoms, including ruptured aneurysms, giant unruputred intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) presenting as mass effect, progressively growing aneurysms, and aneurysms associated with neurological symptoms, was statistically analyzed. Twenty-five patients with 30 aneurysms were available for the current study. Fourteen aneurysms showed wall enhancement, including 6 ruptured and 8 unruptured aneurysms. Evidence of inflammation was identified directly through histological studies and indirectly through intraoperative investigations and clinical courses. The statistical analysis indicated no significant correlation between aneurysm wall enhancement and aneurysm size. However, there was a strong correlation between wall enhancement and aneurysm symptoms, with a kappa value of 0.86 (95 % CI 0.68-1). Aneurysm wall enhancement on HRMRI might be a sign of inflammatory change. Symptomatic aneurysms exhibited wall enhancement on HRMRI. Wall enhancement had a high consistent correlation of symptomatic aneurysms. Therefore, wall enhancement on HRMRI might predict an unsteady state of an intracranial saccular aneurysm.

Evidence, temperature, and the laws of thermodynamics.

PubMed

Vieland, Veronica J

2014-01-01

A primary purpose of statistical analysis in genetics is the measurement of the strength of evidence for or against hypotheses. As with any type of measurement, a properly calibrated measurement scale is necessary if we want to be able to meaningfully compare degrees of evidence across genetic data sets, across different types of genetic studies and/or across distinct experimental modalities. In previous papers in this journal and elsewhere, my colleagues and I have argued that geneticists ought to care about the scale on which statistical evidence is measured, and we have proposed the Kelvin temperature scale as a template for a context-independent measurement scale for statistical evidence. Moreover, we have claimed that, mathematically speaking, evidence and temperature may be one and the same thing. On first blush, this might seem absurd. Temperature is a property of systems following certain laws of nature (in particular, the 1st and 2nd Law of Thermodynamics) involving very physical quantities (e.g., energy) and processes (e.g., mechanical work). But what do the laws of thermodynamics have to do with statistical systems? Here I address that question. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Characteristics of the Spanish- and English-Language Self-Efficacy to Manage Diabetes Scales.

PubMed

Ritter, Philip L; Lorig, Kate; Laurent, Diana D

2016-04-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of the Spanish-language diabetes self-efficacy scale (DSES-S) and the English-language version (DSES). This study consists of secondary data from 3 randomized studies that administered the DSES-S and DSES at 2 time points. The scales consist of 8 Likert-type 10-point items. Principal component analysis was applied to determine if the scales were unitary or consisted of subscales. Univariate statistics were used to describe the scales. Sensitivity to change was measured by comparing randomized treatment with control groups, where the treatment included methods designed to enhance self-efficacy. General linear models were used to examine the association between the scales and the 8 medical outcomes after controlling for demographic variables. Principal component analysis indicated that there were 2 subscales for both versions: self-efficacy for behaviors and self-efficacy to manage blood levels and medical condition. The measures had similar means across the 3 studies, high internal consistent reliability, values distributed across the entire range, and they showed no evidence of floor effects and little evidence of ceiling effects. The measures were sensitive to change. They were associated with several health indicators and behaviors at baseline, and changes were associated with changes in health measures. The self-efficacy measures behaved consistently across the 3 studies and were highly reliable. Associations with medical indicators and behaviors suggested validity, although further study would be desirable to compare other measures of self-efficacy for people with type 2 diabetes. These brief scales are appropriate for measuring self-efficacy to manage diabetes. © 2016 The Author(s).

Assessing the Milky Way Satellites Associated with the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Law, David R.; Majewski, Steven R.

2010-08-01

Numerical models of the tidal disruption of the Sagittarius (Sgr) dwarf galaxy have recently been developed that for the first time simultaneously satisfy most observational constraints on the angular position, distance, and radial velocity trends of both leading and trailing tidal streams emanating from the dwarf. We use these dynamical models in combination with extant three-dimensional position and velocity data for Galactic globular clusters and dSph galaxies to identify those Milky Way satellites that are likely to have originally formed in the gravitational potential well of the Sgr dwarf, and have been stripped from Sgr during its extended interaction with the Milky Way. We conclude that the globular clusters Arp 2, M 54, NGC 5634, Terzan 8, and Whiting 1 are almost certainly associated with the Sgr dwarf, and that Berkeley 29, NGC 5053, Pal 12, and Terzan 7 are likely to be as well (albeit at lower confidence). The initial Sgr system therefore may have contained five to nine globular clusters, corresponding to a specific frequency SN = 5-9 for an initial Sgr luminosity MV = -15.0. Our result is consistent with the 8 ± 2 genuine Sgr globular clusters expected on the basis of statistical modeling of the Galactic globular cluster distribution and the corresponding false-association rate due to chance alignments with the Sgr streams. The globular clusters identified as most likely to be associated with Sgr are consistent with previous reconstructions of the Sgr age-metallicity relation, and show no evidence for a second-parameter effect shaping their horizontal branch morphologies. We find no statistically significant evidence to suggest that any of the recently discovered population of ultrafaint dwarf galaxies are associated with the Sgr tidal streams, but are unable to rule out this possibility conclusively for all systems.

An Inferential Confidence Interval Method of Establishing Statistical Equivalence that Corrects Tryon's (2001) Reduction Factor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2008-01-01

Evidence of group matching frequently takes the form of a nonsignificant test of statistical difference. Theoretical hypotheses of no difference are also tested in this way. These practices are flawed in that null hypothesis statistical testing provides evidence against the null hypothesis and failing to reject H[subscript 0] is not evidence…

Organizational downsizing and age discrimination litigation: the influence of personnel practices and statistical evidence on litigation outcomes.

PubMed

Wingate, Peter H; Thornton, George C; McIntyre, Kelly S; Frame, Jennifer H

2003-02-01

The present study examined relationships between reduction-in-force (RIF) personnel practices, presentation of statistical evidence, and litigation outcomes. Policy capturing methods were utilized to analyze the components of 115 federal district court opinions involving age discrimination disparate treatment allegations and organizational downsizing. Univariate analyses revealed meaningful links between RIF personnel practices, use of statistical evidence, and judicial verdict. The defendant organization was awarded summary judgment in 73% of the claims included in the study. Judicial decisions in favor of the defendant organization were found to be significantly related to such variables as formal performance appraisal systems, termination decision review within the organization, methods of employee assessment and selection for termination, and the presence of a concrete layoff policy. The use of statistical evidence in ADEA disparate treatment litigation was investigated and found to be a potentially persuasive type of indirect evidence. Legal, personnel, and evidentiary ramifications are reviewed, and a framework of downsizing mechanics emphasizing legal defensibility is presented.

Searching for evidence of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar flares using the AFINO code

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inglis, Andrew; Ireland, Jack; Dennis, Brian R.; Hayes, Laura Ann; Gallagher, Peter T.

2017-08-01

The AFINO (Automated Flare Inference of Oscillations) code is a new tool to allow analysis of temporal solar data in search of oscillatory signatures. Using AFINO, we carry out a large-scale search for evidence of signals consistent with quasi-periodic pulsations (QPP) in solar flares, focusing on the 1-300 s timescale. We analyze 675 M- and X-class flares observed by GOES in 1-8 Å soft X-rays between 2011 February 1 and 2015 December 31. Additionally, over the same era we analyze Fermi/GBM 15-25 keV X-ray data for each of these flares associated with a GBM solar flare trigger, a total of 261 events. Using a model comparison method and the Bayesian Information Criterion statistic, we determine whether there is evidence for a substantial enhancement in the Fourier power spectrum that may be consistent with a QPP-like signature.Quasi-steady periodic signatures appear more prevalently in thermal soft X-ray data than in the counterpart hard X-ray emission: according to AFINO ~30% of GOES flares but only ~8% of the same flares observed by GBM show strong signatures consistent with classical interpretations of QPP, which include MHD wave processes and oscillatory reconnection events. For both datasets, preferred characteristic timescales of ~5-30 s were found in the QPP-like events, with no clear dependence on flare magnitude. Individual events in the sample also show similar characteristic timescales in both GBM and GOES data sets, indicating that the same phenomenon is sometimes observed simultaneously in soft and hard X-rays. We discuss the implications of these survey results, and future developments of the analysis method. AFINO continues to run daily on new flares observed by GOES, and the full AFINO catalogue is made available online.

Substance use disorders: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) and International Classification of Diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10).

PubMed

Hasin, Deborah; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Keyes, Katherine; Ogburn, Elizabeth

2006-09-01

Two major nomenclatures, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) and International Classification of Diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10), currently define substance use disorders for broad audiences of users with different training, experience and interests. A comparison of these definitions and their implications for DSM-V and ICD-11 has not been available. The background for the dependence concept and abuse, harmful use, withdrawal, substance-induced disorders and remission and other substance-related conditions is reviewed. Reliability evidence is presented, as is validity evidence from approaches including psychometric, genetic and animal studies. The relevance of the DSM-IV and ICD-10 compared to alternative systems (e.g. the Addiction Severity Index) is considered. Reliability and psychometric validity evidence for substance dependence is consistently strong, but more mixed for abuse and harmful use. Findings on the genetics of alcohol disorders support the validity of the dependence concept, while animal studies underscore the centrality of continued use despite negative consequences to the concept of dependence. While few studies on substance-induced disorders have been conducted, those published show good reliability and validity when elements of DSM-IV and ICD-10 are combined. Dependence in DSM-V and ICD-11 should be retained, standardizing both criteria sets and adding a severity measure. The consequences of heavy use should be measured independently of dependence; add cannabis withdrawal if further research supports existing evidence; conduct further studies of the substance-induced psychiatric categories; standardize their criteria across DSM-V and ICD-11; develop a theoretical basis for better remission criteria; consider changing substance 'abuse' to substance 'dysfunction disorder'; and conduct clinician education on the value of the diagnostic criteria.

Combining evidence, biomedical literature and statistical dependence: new insights for functional annotation of gene sets

PubMed Central

Aubry, Marc; Monnier, Annabelle; Chicault, Celine; de Tayrac, Marie; Galibert, Marie-Dominique; Burgun, Anita; Mosser, Jean

2006-01-01

Background Large-scale genomic studies based on transcriptome technologies provide clusters of genes that need to be functionally annotated. The Gene Ontology (GO) implements a controlled vocabulary organised into three hierarchies: cellular components, molecular functions and biological processes. This terminology allows a coherent and consistent description of the knowledge about gene functions. The GO terms related to genes come primarily from semi-automatic annotations made by trained biologists (annotation based on evidence) or text-mining of the published scientific literature (literature profiling). Results We report an original functional annotation method based on a combination of evidence and literature that overcomes the weaknesses and the limitations of each approach. It relies on the Gene Ontology Annotation database (GOA Human) and the PubGene biomedical literature index. We support these annotations with statistically associated GO terms and retrieve associative relations across the three GO hierarchies to emphasise the major pathways involved by a gene cluster. Both annotation methods and associative relations were quantitatively evaluated with a reference set of 7397 genes and a multi-cluster study of 14 clusters. We also validated the biological appropriateness of our hybrid method with the annotation of a single gene (cdc2) and that of a down-regulated cluster of 37 genes identified by a transcriptome study of an in vitro enterocyte differentiation model (CaCo-2 cells). Conclusion The combination of both approaches is more informative than either separate approach: literature mining can enrich an annotation based only on evidence. Text-mining of the literature can also find valuable associated MEDLINE references that confirm the relevance of the annotation. Eventually, GO terms networks can be built with associative relations in order to highlight cooperative and competitive pathways and their connected molecular functions. PMID:16674810

Direct evidence for a dual process model of deductive inference.

PubMed

Markovits, Henry; Brunet, Marie-Laurence; Thompson, Valerie; Brisson, Janie

2013-07-01

In 2 experiments, we tested a strong version of a dual process theory of conditional inference (cf. Verschueren et al., 2005a, 2005b) that assumes that most reasoners have 2 strategies available, the choice of which is determined by situational variables, cognitive capacity, and metacognitive control. The statistical strategy evaluates inferences probabilistically, accepting those with high conditional probability. The counterexample strategy rejects inferences when a counterexample shows the inference to be invalid. To discriminate strategy use, we presented reasoners with conditional statements (if p, then q) and explicit statistical information about the relative frequency of the probability of p/q (50% vs. 90%). A statistical strategy would accept the more probable inferences more frequently, whereas the counterexample one would reject both. In Experiment 1, reasoners under time pressure used the statistical strategy more, but switched to the counterexample strategy when time constraints were removed; the former took less time than the latter. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that the statistical strategy is the default heuristic. Under a free-time condition, reasoners preferred the counterexample strategy and kept it when put under time pressure. Thus, it is not simply a lack of capacity that produces a statistical strategy; instead, it seems that time pressure disrupts the ability to make good metacognitive choices. In line with this conclusion, in a 2nd experiment, we measured reasoners' confidence in their performance; those under time pressure were less confident in the statistical than the counterexample strategy and more likely to switch strategies under free-time conditions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Weekly Cycle of Lightning: Evidence of Storm Invigoration by Pollution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong

2009-01-01

We have examined summertime 1998 2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic-scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.

Firearms and suicide in US cities.

PubMed

Miller, Matthew; Warren, Molly; Hemenway, David; Azrael, Deborah

2015-04-01

On an average day in the USA more than 100 Americans die by suicide-half use firearms. Suicide rates overall and by firearms are higher, on average, in states where household firearm ownership is more common. In general this means in states where a greater proportion of the population lives in rural areas. The current ecological study focuses on the relation between measures of household firearm prevalence and suicide mortality in urban areas (metropolitan statistical areas and divisions) using survey-based measures of firearm ownership. Suicide rates (1999-2010) for metropolitan statistical areas that are comprised of large US cities come from death certificate records; rates of household firearm ownership come from the 2002 and 2004 Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System. Higher rates of firearm ownership are strongly associated with higher rates of overall suicide and firearm suicide, but not with non-firearm suicide. Stratification by gender, age and race did not materially affect the association between firearms and suicide. This study provides evidence consistent with previous case-control work and extends evidence from previous state- and region-level ecological studies that firearms in the home impose suicide risk above and beyond baseline. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The relationship of season of birth to asthma and allergy in urban African American children from 10 to 13 years of age.

PubMed

Clark, Noreen M; Baptist, Alan P; Ko, Yi-An; Leo, Harvey L; Song, Peter X K

2012-12-01

To assess the relationship between season of birth and presence of asthma and allergy in preteen, low-income, African American children. The study consisted of a self-administered survey followed by telephone interviews of parents of children attending 19 middle schools in Detroit, Michigan. Out of 4194 children, 1292 were identified with asthma and 962 parents of these children provided informed consent and took part in telephone interviews. No statistically significant relationships were observed between season of birth and diagnosis of asthma (p > .05) or with diagnosis adjusting for income, age, gender, parent's education, or parent being a smoker (p > .05). No statistically significant association was evident between season of birth and presence of allergy (p > .05) or with allergy adjusting for the above variables (p > .05). Identifying children vulnerable to problems with asthma and allergy, especially in populations exhibiting high prevalence of the conditions and significant disparities in outcomes, requires use of all possible means. Season of birth does not appear to be a useful indicator in identification of such children. The findings from this study do not support the proposition that season of birth, associated with early exposure to viruses as evident in the winter and to seasonal allergens, contributes to more asthma and/or allergy.

Topographic relationships for design rainfalls over Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, F.; Hutchinson, M. F.; The, C.; Beesley, C.; Green, J.

2016-02-01

Design rainfall statistics are the primary inputs used to assess flood risk across river catchments. These statistics normally take the form of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves that are derived from extreme value probability distributions fitted to observed daily, and sub-daily, rainfall data. The design rainfall relationships are often required for catchments where there are limited rainfall records, particularly catchments in remote areas with high topographic relief and hence some form of interpolation is required to provide estimates in these areas. This paper assesses the topographic dependence of rainfall extremes by using elevation-dependent thin plate smoothing splines to interpolate the mean annual maximum rainfall, for periods from one to seven days, across Australia. The analyses confirm the important impact of topography in explaining the spatial patterns of these extreme rainfall statistics. Continent-wide residual and cross validation statistics are used to demonstrate the 100-fold impact of elevation in relation to horizontal coordinates in explaining the spatial patterns, consistent with previous rainfall scaling studies and observational evidence. The impact of the complexity of the fitted spline surfaces, as defined by the number of knots, and the impact of applying variance stabilising transformations to the data, were also assessed. It was found that a relatively large number of 3570 knots, suitably chosen from 8619 gauge locations, was required to minimise the summary error statistics. Square root and log data transformations were found to deliver marginally superior continent-wide cross validation statistics, in comparison to applying no data transformation, but detailed assessments of residuals in complex high rainfall regions with high topographic relief showed that no data transformation gave superior performance in these regions. These results are consistent with the understanding that in areas with modest topographic relief, as for most of the Australian continent, extreme rainfall is closely aligned with elevation, but in areas with high topographic relief the impacts of topography on rainfall extremes are more complex. The interpolated extreme rainfall statistics, using no data transformation, have been used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to produce new IDF data for the Australian continent. The comprehensive methods presented for the evaluation of gridded design rainfall statistics will be useful for similar studies, in particular the importance of balancing the need for a continentally-optimum solution that maintains sufficient definition at the local scale.

Diffusion tensor imaging in children with tuberous sclerosis complex: tract-based spatial statistics assessment of brain microstructural changes.

PubMed

Zikou, Anastasia K; Xydis, Vasileios G; Astrakas, Loukas G; Nakou, Iliada; Tzarouchi, Loukia C; Tzoufi, Meropi; Argyropoulou, Maria I

2016-07-01

There is evidence of microstructural changes in normal-appearing white matter of patients with tuberous sclerosis complex. To evaluate major white matter tracts in children with tuberous sclerosis complex using tract-based spatial statistics diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) analysis. Eight children (mean age ± standard deviation: 8.5 ± 5.5 years) with an established diagnosis of tuberous sclerosis complex and 8 age-matched controls were studied. The imaging protocol consisted of T1-weighted high-resolution 3-D spoiled gradient-echo sequence and a spin-echo, echo-planar diffusion-weighted sequence. Differences in the diffusion indices were evaluated using tract-based spatial statistics. Tract-based spatial statistics showed increased axial diffusivity in the children with tuberous sclerosis complex in the superior and anterior corona radiata, the superior longitudinal fascicle, the inferior fronto-occipital fascicle, the uncinate fascicle and the anterior thalamic radiation. No significant differences were observed in fractional anisotropy, mean diffusivity and radial diffusivity between patients and control subjects. No difference was found in the diffusion indices between the baseline and follow-up examination in the patient group. Patients with tuberous sclerosis complex have increased axial diffusivity in major white matter tracts, probably related to reduced axonal integrity.

Incremental Implicit Learning of Bundles of Statistical Patterns

PubMed Central

Qian, Ting; Jaeger, T. Florian; Aslin, Richard N.

2016-01-01

Forming an accurate representation of a task environment often takes place incrementally as the information relevant to learning the representation only unfolds over time. This incremental nature of learning poses an important problem: it is usually unclear whether a sequence of stimuli consists of only a single pattern, or multiple patterns that are spliced together. In the former case, the learner can directly use each observed stimulus to continuously revise its representation of the task environment. In the latter case, however, the learner must first parse the sequence of stimuli into different bundles, so as to not conflate the multiple patterns. We created a video-game statistical learning paradigm and investigated 1) whether learners without prior knowledge of the existence of multiple “stimulus bundles” — subsequences of stimuli that define locally coherent statistical patterns — could detect their presence in the input, and 2) whether learners are capable of constructing a rich representation that encodes the various statistical patterns associated with bundles. By comparing human learning behavior to the predictions of three computational models, we find evidence that learners can handle both tasks successfully. In addition, we discuss the underlying reasons for why the learning of stimulus bundles occurs even when such behavior may seem irrational. PMID:27639552

Exact goodness-of-fit tests for Markov chains.

PubMed

Besag, J; Mondal, D

2013-06-01

Goodness-of-fit tests are useful in assessing whether a statistical model is consistent with available data. However, the usual χ² asymptotics often fail, either because of the paucity of the data or because a nonstandard test statistic is of interest. In this article, we describe exact goodness-of-fit tests for first- and higher order Markov chains, with particular attention given to time-reversible ones. The tests are obtained by conditioning on the sufficient statistics for the transition probabilities and are implemented by simple Monte Carlo sampling or by Markov chain Monte Carlo. They apply both to single and to multiple sequences and allow a free choice of test statistic. Three examples are given. The first concerns multiple sequences of dry and wet January days for the years 1948-1983 at Snoqualmie Falls, Washington State, and suggests that standard analysis may be misleading. The second one is for a four-state DNA sequence and lends support to the original conclusion that a second-order Markov chain provides an adequate fit to the data. The last one is six-state atomistic data arising in molecular conformational dynamics simulation of solvated alanine dipeptide and points to strong evidence against a first-order reversible Markov chain at 6 picosecond time steps. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

Perception of the average size of multiple objects in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes).

PubMed

Imura, Tomoko; Kawakami, Fumito; Shirai, Nobu; Tomonaga, Masaki

2017-08-30

Humans can extract statistical information, such as the average size of a group of objects or the general emotion of faces in a crowd without paying attention to any individual object or face. To determine whether summary perception is unique to humans, we investigated the evolutional origins of this ability by assessing whether chimpanzees, which are closely related to humans, can also determine the average size of multiple visual objects. Five chimpanzees and 18 humans were able to choose the array in which the average size was larger, when presented with a pair of arrays, each containing 12 circles of different or the same sizes. Furthermore, both species were more accurate in judging the average size of arrays consisting of 12 circles of different or the same sizes than they were in judging the average size of arrays consisting of a single circle. Our findings could not be explained by the use of a strategy in which the chimpanzee detected the largest or smallest circle among those in the array. Our study provides the first evidence that chimpanzees can perceive the average size of multiple visual objects. This indicates that the ability to compute the statistical properties of a complex visual scene is not unique to humans, but is shared between both species. © 2017 The Authors.

Perception of the average size of multiple objects in chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes)

PubMed Central

Kawakami, Fumito; Shirai, Nobu; Tomonaga, Masaki

2017-01-01

Humans can extract statistical information, such as the average size of a group of objects or the general emotion of faces in a crowd without paying attention to any individual object or face. To determine whether summary perception is unique to humans, we investigated the evolutional origins of this ability by assessing whether chimpanzees, which are closely related to humans, can also determine the average size of multiple visual objects. Five chimpanzees and 18 humans were able to choose the array in which the average size was larger, when presented with a pair of arrays, each containing 12 circles of different or the same sizes. Furthermore, both species were more accurate in judging the average size of arrays consisting of 12 circles of different or the same sizes than they were in judging the average size of arrays consisting of a single circle. Our findings could not be explained by the use of a strategy in which the chimpanzee detected the largest or smallest circle among those in the array. Our study provides the first evidence that chimpanzees can perceive the average size of multiple visual objects. This indicates that the ability to compute the statistical properties of a complex visual scene is not unique to humans, but is shared between both species. PMID:28835550

The fighting hypothesis in combat: how well does the fighting hypothesis explain human left-handed minorities?

PubMed

Groothuis, Ton G G; McManus, I C; Schaafsma, Sara M; Geuze, Reint H

2013-06-01

The strong population bias in hand preference in favor of right-handedness seems to be a typical human trait. An elegant evolutionary hypothesis explaining this trait is the so-called fighting hypothesis that postulates that left-handedness is under frequency-dependent selection. The fighting hypothesis assumes that left-handers, being in the minority because of health issues, are still maintained in the population since they would have a greater chance of winning in fights than right-handers due to a surprise effect. This review critically evaluates the assumptions and evidence for this hypothesis and concludes that some evidence, although consistent with the fighting hypothesis, does not directly support it and may also be interpreted differently. Other supportive data are ambiguous or open for both statistical and theoretical criticism. We conclude that, presently, evidence for the fighting hypothesis is not particularly strong, but that there is little evidence to reject it either. The hypothesis thus remains an intuitively plausible explanation for the persistent left-hand preference in the population. We suggest alternative explanations and several ways forward for obtaining more crucial data for testing this frequently cited hypothesis. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

The effectiveness of whole-body-vibration training in improving hamstring flexibility in physically active adults.

PubMed

Houston, Megan N; Hodson, Victoria E; Adams, Kelda K E; Hoch, Johanna M

2015-02-01

Hamstring tightness is common among physically active individuals. In addition to limiting range of motion and increasing the risk of muscle strain, hamstring tightness contributes to a variety of orthopedic conditions. Therefore, clinicians continue to identify effective methods to increase flexibility. Although hamstring tightness is typically treated with common stretching techniques such as static stretching and proprioceptive neuromuscular facilitation, it has been suggested that whole-body-vibration (WBV) training may improve hamstring flexibility. Can WBV training, used in isolation or in combination with common stretching protocols or exercise, improve hamstring flexibility in physically active young adults? Summary of Key Findings: Of the included studies, 4 demonstrated statistically significant improvements in hamstring flexibility in the intervention group, and 1 study found minor improvements over time in the intervention group after treatment. Clinical Bottom Line: There is moderate evidence to support the use of WBV training to improve hamstring flexibility in physically active young adults. There is grade B evidence that WBV training improves hamstring flexibility in physically active adults. The Centre of Evidence Based Medicine recommends a grade of B for level 2 evidence with consistent findings.

Long memory volatility of gold price returns: How strong is the evidence from distinct economic cycles?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bentes, Sonia R.

2016-02-01

This paper examines the long memory behavior in the volatility of gold returns using daily data for the period 1985-2009. We divided the whole sample into eight sub-samples in order to analyze the robustness and consistency of our results during different crisis periods. This constitutes our main contribution. We cover four major world crises, namely, (i) the US stock market crash of 1987; (ii) the Asian financial crisis of 1997; (iii) the World Trade Center terrorist attack of 2001 and finally, (iv) the sub-prime crisis of 2007, in order to investigate how the fractional integrated parameter of the FIGARCH(1, d,1) model evolves over time. Our findings are twofold: (i) there is evidence of long memory in the conditional variance over the whole sample period; (ii) when we consider the sub-sample analysis, the results show mixed evidence. Thus, for the 1985-2003 period the long memory parameter is positive and statistically significant in the pre-crisis sub-samples, and there is no evidence of long memory in the crisis sub-sample periods; however the reverse pattern occurs for the 2005-2009 period. This highlights the unique characteristics of the 2007 sub-prime crisis.

Marginal evidence for cosmic acceleration from Type Ia supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen, J. T.; Guffanti, A.; Sarkar, S.

2016-10-01

The ‘standard’ model of cosmology is founded on the basis that the expansion rate of the universe is accelerating at present — as was inferred originally from the Hubble diagram of Type Ia supernovae. There exists now a much bigger database of supernovae so we can perform rigorous statistical tests to check whether these ‘standardisable candles’ indeed indicate cosmic acceleration. Taking account of the empirical procedure by which corrections are made to their absolute magnitudes to allow for the varying shape of the light curve and extinction by dust, we find, rather surprisingly, that the data are still quite consistent with a constant rate of expansion.

A second catalog of gamma ray bursts: 1978 - 1980 localizations from the interplanetary network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atteia, J. L.; Barat, C.; Hurley, K.; Niel, M.; Vedrenne, G.; Evans, W. D.; Fenimore, E. E.; Klebesadel, R. W.; Laros, J. G.; Cline, T. L.

1985-01-01

Eighty-two gamma ray bursts were detected between 1978 September 14 and 1980 February 13 by the experiments of the interplanetary network (Prognoz 7, Venera 11 and 12 SIGNE experiments, Pioneer Venus Orbiter, International Sun-Earth Explorer 3, Helios 2, and Vela). Sixty-five of these events have been localized to annuli or error boxes by the method of arrival time analysis. The distribution of sources is consistent with isotropy, and there is no statistically convincing evidence for the detection of more than one burst from any source position. The localizations are compared with those of two previous catalogs.

Typhilitis in the pediatric patient.

PubMed

Haut, Cathy

2008-01-01

Cancer statistics in children are promising as mortality rates consistently decrease, reflecting newer chemotherapeutic agents and the evolution of hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Typhilitis or neutropenic enterocolitis is a potentially life-threatening complication of cancer treatment often found in immunocompromised children receiving vigorous chemotherapeutic regimens and noted in children post-stem-cell transplant. Recent literature suggests a relationship between typhilitis and other types of cancers and immunocompromised illness occurring in both children and adults. The pathogenesis of typhilitis is poorly understood, with limited evidence regarding incidence. Nursing care and assessment of children receiving oncologic treatment requires vigilance and immediate response to prevent and manage complications, especially gastrointestinally related typhilitis.

Marginal evidence for cosmic acceleration from Type Ia supernovae

PubMed Central

Nielsen, J. T.; Guffanti, A.; Sarkar, S.

2016-01-01

The ‘standard’ model of cosmology is founded on the basis that the expansion rate of the universe is accelerating at present — as was inferred originally from the Hubble diagram of Type Ia supernovae. There exists now a much bigger database of supernovae so we can perform rigorous statistical tests to check whether these ‘standardisable candles’ indeed indicate cosmic acceleration. Taking account of the empirical procedure by which corrections are made to their absolute magnitudes to allow for the varying shape of the light curve and extinction by dust, we find, rather surprisingly, that the data are still quite consistent with a constant rate of expansion. PMID:27767125

Evidence for outcomes of motivational rehabilitation interventions for children and adolescents with cerebral palsy: an American Academy for Cerebral Palsy and Developmental Medicine systematic review.

PubMed

Tatla, Sandy K; Sauve, Karen; Virji-Babul, Naznin; Holsti, Liisa; Butler, Charlene; Van Der Loos, Hendrik F Machiel

2013-07-01

This study reviewed evidence regarding the effect of motivational rehabilitation interventions on outcomes in children with cerebral palsy. Six databases were searched for literature published up to May 2012. Included studies measured the purported motivating effects of motor-based rehabilitation interventions and the measured impact on outcomes. The American Academy for Cerebral Palsy and Developmental Medicine (AACPDM) systematic review methodology was used as a framework. Eight studies evaluated outcomes of studies using virtual reality interventions and one in a functional therapy context. Conflicting evidence from three (level II and level III) studies exists about the impact of these motivating interventions on motor outcomes measured in body functions. No statistical evidence regarding activity and participation outcomes exists. A single level II study found no significant difference in participants' motivation between motivational and conventional interventions. This review revealed a paucity of research on the effects of motivational interventions. Weaknesses include a lack of consistency in the examination of motivational interventions, limited use of definitions or theories to ground the concept of motivation, and reliance on non-validated methodological tools. This body of evidence would be strengthened by the use and development of robust outcome measures of motivation. © 2013 Mac Keith Press.

The retail availability of tobacco in Tasmania: evidence for a socio-economic and geographical gradient.

PubMed

Melody, Shannon M; Martin-Gall, Veronica; Harding, Ben; Veitch, Mark Gk

2018-03-19

To describe the retail availability of tobacco and to examine the association between tobacco outlet density and area-level remoteness and socio-economic status classification in Tasmania. Ecological cross-sectional study; analysis of tobacco retail outlet data collected by the Department of Health and Human Services (Tasmania) according to area-level (Statistical Areas Level 2) remoteness (defined by the Remoteness Structure of the Australian Statistical Geographical Standard) and socio-economic status (defined by the 2011 Australian Bureau of Statistics Index of Relative Socioeconomic Advantage and Disadvantage). Tobacco retail outlet density per 1000 residents. On 31 December 2016, there were 1.54 tobacco retail outlets per 1000 persons. The density of outlets was 79% greater in suburbs or towns in outer regional, remote and very remote Tasmania than in inner regional Tasmania (rate ratio [RR], 1.79; 95% confidence Interval [CI], 1.29-2.50; P < 0.001). Suburbs or towns in Tasmania with the greatest socio-economic disadvantage had more than twice the number of tobacco outlets per 1000 people as areas of least disadvantage (RR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.32-4.21; P = 0.014). A disproportionate concentration of tobacco retail outlets in regional and remote Tasmania and in areas of lowest socio-economic status is evident. Our findings are consistent with those of analyses in New South Wales and Western Australia. Progressive tobacco retail restrictions have been proposed as the next frontier in tobacco control. However, the intended and unintended consequences of such policies need to be investigated, particularly for socio-economically deprived and rural areas.

Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

PubMed Central

Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-01-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor. PMID:25184368

Evaluation of Allele-Specific Somatic Changes of Genome-Wide Association Study Susceptibility Alleles in Human Colorectal Cancers

PubMed Central

Gerber, Madelyn M.; Hampel, Heather; Schulz, Nathan P.; Fernandez, Soledad; Wei, Lai; Zhou, Xiao-Ping; de la Chapelle, Albert; Toland, Amanda Ewart

2012-01-01

Background Tumors frequently exhibit loss of tumor suppressor genes or allelic gains of activated oncogenes. A significant proportion of cancer susceptibility loci in the mouse show somatic losses or gains consistent with the presence of a tumor susceptibility or resistance allele. Thus, allele-specific somatic gains or losses at loci may demarcate the presence of resistance or susceptibility alleles. The goal of this study was to determine if previously mapped susceptibility loci for colorectal cancer show evidence of allele-specific somatic events in colon tumors. Methods We performed quantitative genotyping of 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showing statistically significant association with colorectal cancer in published genome-wide association studies (GWAS). We genotyped 194 paired normal and colorectal tumor DNA samples and 296 paired validation samples to investigate these SNPs for allele-specific somatic gains and losses. We combined analysis of our data with published data for seven of these SNPs. Results No statistically significant evidence for allele-specific somatic selection was observed for the tested polymorphisms in the discovery set. The rs6983267 variant, which has shown preferential loss of the non-risk T allele and relative gain of the risk G allele in previous studies, favored relative gain of the G allele in the combined discovery and validation samples (corrected p-value = 0.03). When we combined our data with published allele-specific imbalance data for this SNP, the G allele of rs6983267 showed statistically significant evidence of relative retention (p-value = 2.06×10−4). Conclusions Our results suggest that the majority of variants identified as colon cancer susceptibility alleles through GWAS do not exhibit somatic allele-specific imbalance in colon tumors. Our data confirm previously published results showing allele-specific imbalance for rs6983267. These results indicate that allele-specific imbalance of cancer susceptibility alleles may not be a common phenomenon in colon cancer. PMID:22629442

Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poveda, Germán

2011-02-01

Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with < β> = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

Voice rest after vocal fold surgery: current practice and evidence.

PubMed

Coombs, A C; Carswell, A J; Tierney, P A

2013-08-01

Voice rest is commonly recommended after vocal fold surgery, but there is a lack of evidence base and no standard protocol. The aim of this study was to establish common practice regarding voice rest following vocal fold surgery. An online survey was circulated via e-mail invitation to members of the ENT UK Expert Panel between October and November 2011. The survey revealed that 86.5 per cent of respondents agreed that 'complete voice rest' means no sound production at all, but there was variability in how 'relative voice rest' was defined. There was no dominant type of voice rest routinely recommended after surgery for laryngeal papillomatosis or intermediate pathologies. There was considerable variability in the duration of voice rest recommended, with no statistically significant, most popular response (except for malignant lesions). Surgeons with less than 10 years of experience were more likely to recommend fewer days of voice rest. There is a lack of consistency in advice given to patients after vocal fold surgery, in terms of both type and length of voice rest. This may arise from an absence of robust evidence on which to base practice.

Computer-Aided Experiment Planning toward Causal Discovery in Neuroscience.

PubMed

Matiasz, Nicholas J; Wood, Justin; Wang, Wei; Silva, Alcino J; Hsu, William

2017-01-01

Computers help neuroscientists to analyze experimental results by automating the application of statistics; however, computer-aided experiment planning is far less common, due to a lack of similar quantitative formalisms for systematically assessing evidence and uncertainty. While ontologies and other Semantic Web resources help neuroscientists to assimilate required domain knowledge, experiment planning requires not only ontological but also epistemological (e.g., methodological) information regarding how knowledge was obtained. Here, we outline how epistemological principles and graphical representations of causality can be used to formalize experiment planning toward causal discovery. We outline two complementary approaches to experiment planning: one that quantifies evidence per the principles of convergence and consistency, and another that quantifies uncertainty using logical representations of constraints on causal structure. These approaches operationalize experiment planning as the search for an experiment that either maximizes evidence or minimizes uncertainty. Despite work in laboratory automation, humans must still plan experiments and will likely continue to do so for some time. There is thus a great need for experiment-planning frameworks that are not only amenable to machine computation but also useful as aids in human reasoning.

Pelagic seabird flight patterns are consistent with a reliance on olfactory maps for oceanic navigation

PubMed Central

Reynolds, Andrew M.; Cecere, Jacopo G.; Paiva, Vitor H.; Ramos, Jaime A.; Focardi, Stefano

2015-01-01

Homing studies have provided tantalizing evidence that the remarkable ability of shearwaters (Procellariiformes) to pinpoint their breeding colony after crossing vast expanses of featureless open ocean can be attributed to their assembling cognitive maps of wind-borne odours but crucially, it has not been tested whether olfactory cues are actually used as a system for navigation. Obtaining statistically important samples of wild birds for use in experimental approaches is, however, impossible because of invasive sensory manipulation. Using an innovative non-invasive approach, we provide strong evidence that shearwaters rely on olfactory cues for oceanic navigation. We tested for compliance with olfactory-cued navigation in the flight patterns of 210 shearwaters of three species (Cory's shearwaters, Calonectris borealis, North Atlantic Ocean, Scopoli's shearwaters, C. diomedea Mediterranean Sea, and Cape Verde shearwaters, C. edwardsii, Central Atlantic Ocean) tagged with high-resolution GPS loggers during both incubation and chick rearing. We found that most (69%) birds displayed exponentially truncated scale-free (Lévy-flight like) displacements, which we show are consistent with olfactory-cued navigation in the presence of atmospheric turbulence. Our analysis provides the strongest evidence yet for cognitive odour map navigation in wild birds. Thus, we may reconcile two highly disputed questions in movement ecology, by mechanistically connecting Lévy displacements and olfactory navigation. Our approach can be applied to any species which can be tracked at sufficient spatial resolution, using a GPS logger. PMID:26136443

Alcoholics Anonymous Effectiveness: Faith Meets Science

PubMed Central

Kaskutas, Lee Ann

2009-01-01

Research on the effectiveness of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) is controversial and is subject to widely divergent interpretations. The goal of this paper is to provide a focused review of the literature on AA effectiveness that will allow readers to judge the evidence for AA effectiveness themselves. The review organizes the research on AA effectiveness according to six criterion required for establishing causation: (1) magnitude of effect; (2) dose response effect; (3) consistent effect; (4) temporally accurate effects; (5) specific effects; (6) plausibility. The evidence for criteria 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6 is very strong: Rates of abstinence are about twice as high among those who attend AA (criteria 1, magnitude); higher levels of attendance are related to higher rates of abstinence (criteria 2, dose-response); these relationships are found for different samples and follow-up periods (criteria 3, consistency); prior AA attendance is predictive of subsequent abstinence (criteria 4, temporal); and mechanisms of action predicted by theories of behavior change are present in AA (criteria 6, plausibility). However, rigorous experimental evidence establishing the specificity of an effect for AA or Twelve Step Facilitation/TSF (criteria 5) is mixed, with 2 trials finding a positive effect for AA, 1 trial finding a negative effect for AA, and 1 trial finding a null effect. Studies addressing specificity using statistical approaches have had two contradictory findings, and two that reported significant effects for AA after adjusting for potential confounders such as motivation to change. PMID:19340677

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “No evidence of effect” versus “evidence of no effect”

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

This article is the first in a series exploring common pitfalls in statistical analysis in biomedical research. The power of a clinical trial is the ability to find a difference between treatments, where such a difference exists. At the end of the study, the lack of difference between treatments does not mean that the treatments can be considered equivalent. The distinction between “no evidence of effect” and “evidence of no effect” needs to be understood. PMID:25657905

Theory! The Missing Link in Understanding the Performance of Neonate/Infant Home-Visiting Programs to Prevent Child Maltreatment: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Segal, Leonie; Sara Opie, Rachelle; Dalziel, Kim

2012-01-01

Context Home-visiting programs have been offered for more than sixty years to at-risk families of newborns and infants. But despite decades of experience with program delivery, more than sixty published controlled trials, and more than thirty published literature reviews, there is still uncertainty surrounding the performance of these programs. Our particular interest was the performance of home visiting in reducing child maltreatment. Methods We developed a program logic framework to assist in understanding the neonate/infant home-visiting literature, identified through a systematic literature review. We tested whether success could be explained by the logic model using descriptive synthesis and statistical analysis. Findings Having a stated objective of reducing child maltreatment—a theory or mechanism of change underpinning the home-visiting program consistent with the target population and their needs and program components that can deliver against the nominated theory of change—considerably increased the chance of success. We found that only seven of fifty-three programs demonstrated such consistency, all of which had a statistically significant positive outcome, whereas of the fifteen that had no match, none was successful. Programs with a partial match had an intermediate success rate. The relationship between program success and full, partial or no match was statistically significant. Conclusions Employing a theory-driven approach provides a new way of understanding the disparate performance of neonate/infant home-visiting programs. Employing a similar theory-driven approach could also prove useful in the review of other programs that embody a diverse set of characteristics and may apply to diverse populations and settings. A program logic framework provides a rigorous approach to deriving policy-relevant meaning from effectiveness evidence of complex programs. For neonate/infant home-visiting programs, it means that in developing these programs, attention to consistency of objectives, theory of change, target population, and program components is critical. PMID:22428693

Theory! The missing link in understanding the performance of neonate/infant home-visiting programs to prevent child maltreatment: a systematic review.

PubMed

Segal, Leonie; Sara Opie, Rachelle; Dalziel, Kim

2012-03-01

Home-visiting programs have been offered for more than sixty years to at-risk families of newborns and infants. But despite decades of experience with program delivery, more than sixty published controlled trials, and more than thirty published literature reviews, there is still uncertainty surrounding the performance of these programs. Our particular interest was the performance of home visiting in reducing child maltreatment. We developed a program logic framework to assist in understanding the neonate/infant home-visiting literature, identified through a systematic literature review. We tested whether success could be explained by the logic model using descriptive synthesis and statistical analysis. Having a stated objective of reducing child maltreatment-a theory or mechanism of change underpinning the home-visiting program consistent with the target population and their needs and program components that can deliver against the nominated theory of change-considerably increased the chance of success. We found that only seven of fifty-three programs demonstrated such consistency, all of which had a statistically significant positive outcome, whereas of the fifteen that had no match, none was successful. Programs with a partial match had an intermediate success rate. The relationship between program success and full, partial or no match was statistically significant. Employing a theory-driven approach provides a new way of understanding the disparate performance of neonate/infant home-visiting programs. Employing a similar theory-driven approach could also prove useful in the review of other programs that embody a diverse set of characteristics and may apply to diverse populations and settings. A program logic framework provides a rigorous approach to deriving policy-relevant meaning from effectiveness evidence of complex programs. For neonate/infant home-visiting programs, it means that in developing these programs, attention to consistency of objectives, theory of change, target population, and program components is critical. © 2012 Milbank Memorial Fund.

Attitudes to statistics in primary health care physicians, Qassim province.

PubMed

Jahan, Saulat; Al-Saigul, Abdullah Mohammed; Suliman, Amel Abdalrhim

2016-07-01

Aim To investigate primary health care (PHC) physicians' attitudes to statistics, their self-reported knowledge level, and their perceived training needs in statistics. In spite of realization of the importance of statistics, inadequacies in physicians' knowledge and skills have been found, underscoring the need for in-service training. Understanding physicians' attitudes to statistics is vital in planning statistics training. The study was based on theory of planned behavior. A cross-sectional survey of all PHC physicians was conducted in Qassim province, from August to October 2014. Attitudes to statistics were determined by a self-administered questionnaire. The attitudes were assessed on four subscales including general perceptions; perceptions of knowledge and training; perceptions of statistics and evidence-based medicine; and perceptions of future learning. Findings Of 416 eligible participants, 338 (81.25%) responded to the survey. On a scale of 1-10, the majority (73.6%) of the participants self-assessed their level of statistics knowledge as five or below. The attitude scores could have a minimum of 20 and a maximum of 100, with higher scores showing a positive attitude. The participants showed a positive attitude with the mean score of 71.14 (±7.73). Out of the four subscales, 'perceptions of statistics and evidence-based medicine' subscale scored the highest, followed by 'perceptions of future learning'. PHC physicians have a positive attitude to statistics. However, they realize their gaps in knowledge in statistics, and are keen to fill these gaps. Statistics training, resulting in improved statistics knowledge is expected to lead to clinical care utilizing evidence-based medicine, and thus improvement to health care services.

Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

2018-02-01

The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

Validity evidence as a key marker of quality of technical skill assessment in OTL-HNS.

PubMed

Labbé, Mathilde; Young, Meredith; Nguyen, Lily H P

2018-01-13

Quality monitoring of assessment practices should be a priority in all residency programs. Validity evidence is one of the main hallmarks of assessment quality and should be collected to support the interpretation and use of assessment data. Our objective was to identify, synthesize, and present the validity evidence reported supporting different technical skill assessment tools in otolaryngology-head and neck surgery (OTL-HNS). We performed a secondary analysis of data generated through a systematic review of all published tools for assessing technical skills in OTL-HNS (n = 16). For each tool, we coded validity evidence according to the five types of evidence described by the American Educational Research Association's interpretation of Messick's validity framework. Descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. All 16 tools included in our analysis were supported by internal structure and relationship to variables validity evidence. Eleven articles presented evidence supporting content. Response process was discussed only in one article, and no study reported on evidence exploring consequences. We present the validity evidence reported for 16 rater-based tools that could be used for work-based assessment of OTL-HNS residents in the operating room. The articles included in our review were consistently deficient in evidence for response process and consequences. Rater-based assessment tools that support high-stakes decisions that impact the learner and programs should include several sources of validity evidence. Thus, use of any assessment should be done with careful consideration of the context-specific validity evidence supporting score interpretation, and we encourage deliberate continual assessment quality-monitoring. NA. Laryngoscope, 2018. © 2018 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water.

PubMed

Lamm, Steven H; Ferdosi, Hamid; Dissen, Elisabeth K; Li, Ji; Ahn, Jaeil

2015-12-07

High levels (> 200 µg/L) of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are known to be a cause of human lung cancer, but the evidence at lower levels is uncertain. We have sought the epidemiological studies that have examined the dose-response relationship between arsenic levels in drinking water and the risk of lung cancer over a range that includes both high and low levels of arsenic. Regression analysis, based on six studies identified from an electronic search, examined the relationship between the log of the relative risk and the log of the arsenic exposure over a range of 1-1000 µg/L. The best-fitting continuous meta-regression model was sought and found to be a no-constant linear-quadratic analysis where both the risk and the exposure had been logarithmically transformed. This yielded both a statistically significant positive coefficient for the quadratic term and a statistically significant negative coefficient for the linear term. Sub-analyses by study design yielded results that were similar for both ecological studies and non-ecological studies. Statistically significant X-intercepts consistently found no increased level of risk at approximately 100-150 µg/L arsenic.

Role of excited state solvent fluctuations on time-dependent fluorescence Stokes shift

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tanping, E-mail: tanping@lsu.edu, E-mail: revatik@lsu.edu; Kumar, Revati, E-mail: tanping@lsu.edu, E-mail: revatik@lsu.edu

2015-11-07

We explore the connection between the solvation dynamics of a chromophore upon photon excitation and equilibrium fluctuations of the solvent. Using molecular dynamics simulations, fluorescence Stokes shift for the tryptophan in Staphylococcus nuclease was examined using both nonequilibrium calculations and linear response theory. When the perturbed and unperturbed surfaces exhibit different solvent equilibrium fluctuations, the linear response approach on the former surface shows agreement with the nonequilibrium process. This agreement is excellent when the perturbed surface exhibits Gaussian statistics and qualitative in the case of an isomerization induced non-Gaussian statistics. However, the linear response theory on the unperturbed surface breaksmore » down even in the presence of Gaussian fluctuations. Experiments also provide evidence of the connection between the excited state solvent fluctuations and the total fluorescence shift. These observations indicate that the equilibrium statistics on the excited state surface characterize the relaxation dynamics of the fluorescence Stokes shift. Our studies specifically analyze the Gaussian fluctuations of the solvent in the complex protein environment and further confirm the role of solvent fluctuations on the excited state surface. The results are consistent with previous investigations, found in the literature, of solutes dissolved in liquids.« less

Computational and analytical comparison of flux discretizations for the semiconductor device equations beyond Boltzmann statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrell, Patricio; Koprucki, Thomas; Fuhrmann, Jürgen

2017-10-01

We compare three thermodynamically consistent numerical fluxes known in the literature, appearing in a Voronoï finite volume discretization of the van Roosbroeck system with general charge carrier statistics. Our discussion includes an extension of the Scharfetter-Gummel scheme to non-Boltzmann (e.g. Fermi-Dirac) statistics. It is based on the analytical solution of a two-point boundary value problem obtained by projecting the continuous differential equation onto the interval between neighboring collocation points. Hence, it serves as a reference flux. The exact solution of the boundary value problem can be approximated by computationally cheaper fluxes which modify certain physical quantities. One alternative scheme averages the nonlinear diffusion (caused by the non-Boltzmann nature of the problem), another one modifies the effective density of states. To study the differences between these three schemes, we analyze the Taylor expansions, derive an error estimate, visualize the flux error and show how the schemes perform for a carefully designed p-i-n benchmark simulation. We present strong evidence that the flux discretization based on averaging the nonlinear diffusion has an edge over the scheme based on modifying the effective density of states.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis of Lung Cancer Risk and Inorganic Arsenic in Drinking Water

PubMed Central

Lamm, Steven H.; Ferdosi, Hamid; Dissen, Elisabeth K.; Li, Ji; Ahn, Jaeil

2015-01-01

High levels (> 200 µg/L) of inorganic arsenic in drinking water are known to be a cause of human lung cancer, but the evidence at lower levels is uncertain. We have sought the epidemiological studies that have examined the dose-response relationship between arsenic levels in drinking water and the risk of lung cancer over a range that includes both high and low levels of arsenic. Regression analysis, based on six studies identified from an electronic search, examined the relationship between the log of the relative risk and the log of the arsenic exposure over a range of 1–1000 µg/L. The best-fitting continuous meta-regression model was sought and found to be a no-constant linear-quadratic analysis where both the risk and the exposure had been logarithmically transformed. This yielded both a statistically significant positive coefficient for the quadratic term and a statistically significant negative coefficient for the linear term. Sub-analyses by study design yielded results that were similar for both ecological studies and non-ecological studies. Statistically significant X-intercepts consistently found no increased level of risk at approximately 100–150 µg/L arsenic. PMID:26690190

High Spatial Resolution X-Ray Spectroscopy of the IC443 Pulsar Wind Nebula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swartz, Douglas A.; Weisskopf, Martin C.; Bucciantini, Niccolo; Clarke, Tracy E.; Karovska, Margarita; Pavlov, George G.; van der Horst, Alexander; Yukita, Mihoko; Zavlin, Vyacheslav

2014-08-01

Deep Chandra ACIS observations of the region around the putative pulsar CXOU J061705.3+222127, in the supernova remnant IC443, reveal a ~5" radius ring-like morphology surrounding the pulsar and a jet-like structure oriented roughly north-south across the ring and through the pulsar's location. The observations further confirm that (1) the spectrum and flux of the central object are consistent with a rotation-powered pulsar, (2) the non-thermal spectrum and morphology of the surrounding nebula are consistent with a pulsar wind, and (3) the spectrum at greater distances is consistent with thermal emission from the supernova remnant. The cometary shape of the nebula, suggesting motion towards the southwest, appears to be subsonic: There is no evidence for a strong bow shock; and the ring is not distorted by motion through the ambient medium. Comparing this observation with historical observations of the same target we set a 99-% confidence upper limit to the proper motion of CXOU J061705.3+222127 to be less than 310 km/s, with the best-fit (but not statistically significant) direction toward the west.

Effectiveness of School-Based Teen Pregnancy Prevention Programs in the USA: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Marseille, Elliot; Mirzazadeh, Ali; Biggs, M Antonia; P Miller, Amanda; Horvath, Hacsi; Lightfoot, Marguerita; Malekinejad, Mohsen; Kahn, James G

2018-05-01

School-based programs have been a mainstay of youth pregnancy prevention efforts in the USA. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess their effectiveness. Eligible studies evaluated the effect on pregnancy rates of programs delivered in elementary, middle, or high schools in the USA and Canada, published between January 1985 and September 2016. The primary outcome was pregnancy; secondary outcomes were delay in sexual initiation, condom use, and oral contraception use. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and non-RCTs with comparator groups were eligible. We developed a comprehensive search strategy, applied to major bibliographic databases, article bibliographies, gray literature, and contact with authors. We calculated risk ratios (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each outcome and pooled data in random effects meta-analysis. We used Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) to assess evidence quality. Ten RCTs and 11 non-RCTs conducted from 1984 to 2016 yielded 30 unique pooled comparisons for pregnancy, of which 24 were not statistically significant. Six showed statistically significant changes in pregnancy rates: two with increased risk (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.02-1.65; and RR 1.39, 95% CI 1.10-1.75) and four with decreased risk ranging from RR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.77, to RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.58-0.96. All studies were at high risk of bias, and the quality of evidence was low or very low. Identified evidence indicated no consistent difference in rates of pregnancies between intervention recipients and controls.

The impact of tobacco promotion at the point of sale: a systematic review.

PubMed

Paynter, Janine; Edwards, Richard

2009-01-01

Tobacco promotion increases the likelihood that adolescents will start smoking. Much of the tobacco industry's promotional budget is spent on point of sale (PoS) promotion in many jurisdictions. Consequently, tobacco is an eye-catching feature at the PoS in many places. We reviewed the evidence that PoS tobacco promotion influences key smoking-related behaviors and beliefs, increases susceptibility to smoking in youth, undermines smokers' quit attempts, and promotes relapse among ex-smokers. We found 12 peer-reviewed studies, 10 of which were focused on children. Seven of 8 observational studies found statistically significant associations between exposure to tobacco promotion at the PoS and smoking initiation or susceptibility to smoking. Two experimental studies of children found statistically significant associations between exposure to PoS tobacco promotions and beliefs about ease of getting tobacco and smoking prevalence among their peers. An experimental study with adults found that a picture of collected tobacco pack elicited cravings for cigarettes among smokers. A cross-sectional study found that 25% of adult smokers reported impulse purchasing and a third of recent ex-smokers reported urges to start smoking after seeing tobacco displayed. More prospective studies are needed to clarify the temporal relationship between exposure to PoS tobacco and outcome. However, given the addictiveness of tobacco, the severity of the health hazards posed by smoking, the evidence that tobacco promotion encourages children to start smoking, and the consistency of the evidence that PoS promotion influences children's smoking, we believe that ample justification exists for banning PoS advertising and displays of smoked tobacco products.

The role of remote ischemic preconditioning in organ protection after cardiac surgery: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Haji Mohd Yasin, Nur A B; Herbison, Peter; Saxena, Pankaj; Praporski, Slavica; Konstantinov, Igor E

2014-01-01

Remote ischemic preconditioning (RIPC) appears to protect distant organs from ischemia-reperfusion injury. We undertook meta-analysis of clinical studies to evaluate the effects of RIPC on organ protection and clinical outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. A review of evidence for cardiac, renal, and pulmonary protection after RIPC was performed. We also did meta-regressions on RIPC variables, such as duration of ischemia, cuff pressure, and timing of application of preconditioning. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital and intensive care unit stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, and mortality at 30 days. Randomized control trials (n = 25) were included in the study for quantitative analysis of cardiac (n = 16), renal (n = 6), and pulmonary (n = 3) protection. RIPC provided statistically significant cardiac protection (standardized mean difference [SMD], -0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.15, -0.39; Z = 3.98; P < 0.0001) and on subgroup analysis, the protective effect remained consistent for all types of cardiac surgical procedures. However, there was no evidence of renal protection (SMD, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.53, 1.02; Z = 1.81; P = 0.07) or pulmonary protection (SMD, -0.03; 95% CI, -0.56, 0.50; Z = 0.12; P = 0.91). There was no statistical difference in the short-term clinical outcomes between the RIPC and control groups. RIPC provides cardiac protection, but there is no evidence of renal or pulmonary protection in patients undergoing cardiac surgery using cardiopulmonary bypass. Larger multicenter trials are required to define the role of RIPC in surgical practice. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evidence-based pathology in its second decade: toward probabilistic cognitive computing.

PubMed

Marchevsky, Alberto M; Walts, Ann E; Wick, Mark R

2017-03-01

Evidence-based pathology advocates using a combination of best available data ("evidence") from the literature and personal experience for the diagnosis, estimation of prognosis, and assessment of other variables that impact individual patient care. Evidence-based pathology relies on systematic reviews of the literature, evaluation of the quality of evidence as categorized by evidence levels and statistical tools such as meta-analyses, estimates of probabilities and odds, and others. However, it is well known that previously "statistically significant" information usually does not accurately forecast the future for individual patients. There is great interest in "cognitive computing" in which "data mining" is combined with "predictive analytics" designed to forecast future events and estimate the strength of those predictions. This study demonstrates the use of IBM Watson Analytics software to evaluate and predict the prognosis of 101 patients with typical and atypical pulmonary carcinoid tumors in which Ki-67 indices have been determined. The results obtained with this system are compared with those previously reported using "routine" statistical software and the help of a professional statistician. IBM Watson Analytics interactively provides statistical results that are comparable to those obtained with routine statistical tools but much more rapidly, with considerably less effort and with interactive graphics that are intuitively easy to apply. It also enables analysis of natural language variables and yields detailed survival predictions for patient subgroups selected by the user. Potential applications of this tool and basic concepts of cognitive computing are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What works best: objective statistics or a personal testimonial? An assessment of the persuasive effects of different types of message evidence on risk perception.

PubMed

de Wit, John B F; Das, Enny; Vet, Raymond

2008-01-01

In an experimental online study we compared the effects of different types of persuasive evidence in promoting the acceptance of a personal health risk. 118 men who have sex with men (MSM) at-risk for infection with the hepatitis B virus (HBV) were recruited via a range of websites and randomly assigned to one of 4 conditions (2 experimental and 2 control): narrative evidence (i.e., a personal account), statistical evidence (i.e., abstract prevalence data), mere assertion of increased risk, and no risk information. Narrative evidence was expected to be more effective than statistical evidence in increasing MSM's perceived risk of infection with HBV and intention to obtain vaccination. As predicted, perceptions of personal risk and intention to obtain vaccination against HBV were highest after presentation of narrative evidence, and risk perception mediated the effect of type of message evidence on intention. We propose that narrative evidence effectively promotes a sense of personal risk because it is less affected by defensive message processing resulting from the threat to important self-beliefs that seems inherent in health risk communication.

Landau's statistical mechanics for quasi-particle models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bannur, Vishnu M.

2014-04-01

Landau's formalism of statistical mechanics [following L. D. Landau and E. M. Lifshitz, Statistical Physics (Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1980)] is applied to the quasi-particle model of quark-gluon plasma. Here, one starts from the expression for pressure and develop all thermodynamics. It is a general formalism and consistent with our earlier studies [V. M. Bannur, Phys. Lett. B647, 271 (2007)] based on Pathria's formalism [following R. K. Pathria, Statistical Mechanics (Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford, 1977)]. In Pathria's formalism, one starts from the expression for energy density and develop thermodynamics. Both the formalisms are consistent with thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. Under certain conditions, which are wrongly called thermodynamic consistent relation, we recover other formalism of quasi-particle system, like in M. I. Gorenstein and S. N. Yang, Phys. Rev. D52, 5206 (1995), widely studied in quark-gluon plasma.

The Chinese version of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise scale: validation study.

PubMed

Lee, Ling-Ling; Chiu, Yu-Yun; Ho, Chin-Chih; Wu, Shu-Chen; Watson, Roger

2011-06-01

Estimates of the reliability and validity of the English nine-item Outcome Expectations for Exercise (OEE) scale have been tested and found to be valid for use in various settings, particularly among older people, with good internal consistency and validity. Data on the use of the OEE scale among older Chinese people living in the community and how cultural differences might affect the administration of the OEE scale are limited. To test the validity and reliability of the Chinese version of the Outcome Expectations for Exercise scale among older people. A cross-sectional validation study was designed to test the Chinese version of the OEE scale (OEE-C). Reliability was examined by testing both the internal consistency for the overall scale and the squared multiple correlation coefficient for the single item measure. The validity of the scale was tested on the basis of both a traditional psychometric test and a confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modelling. The Mokken Scaling Procedure (MSP) was used to investigate if there were any hierarchical, cumulative sets of items in the measure. The OEE-C scale was tested in a group of older people in Taiwan (n=108, mean age=77.1). There was acceptable internal consistency (alpha=.85) and model fit in the scale. Evidence of the validity of the measure was demonstrated by the tests for criterion-related validity and construct validity. There was a statistically significant correlation between exercise outcome expectations and exercise self-efficacy (r=.34, p<.01). An analysis of the Mokken Scaling Procedure found that nine items of the scale were all retained in the analysis and the resulting scale was reliable and statistically significant (p=.0008). The results obtained in the present study provided acceptable levels of reliability and validity evidence for the Chinese Outcome Expectations for Exercise scale when used with older people in Taiwan. Future testing of the OEE-C scale needs to be carried out to see whether these results are generalisable to older Chinese people living in urban areas. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Is GAISE Evident? College Students' Perceptions of Statistics Classes as "Almost Not Math"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Sarai; Harkness, Shelly Sheats

2017-01-01

The connection between mathematics and statistics is an important aspect in understanding college students' learning of statistics because studies have shown relationships among mathematics attitudes and performance and statistics attitudes. Statistics attitudes, in turn, are related to performance in statistics courses. Little research has been…

Non-Immunogenic Structurally and Biologically Intact Tissue Matrix Grafts for the Immediate Repair of Ballistic-Induced Vascular and Nerve Tissue Injury in Combat Casualty Care

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-07-01

as an access graft is addressed using statistical methods below. Graft consistency can be defined statistically as the variance associated with the...addressed using statistical methods below. Graft consistency can be defined statistically as the variance associated with the sample of grafts tested in...measured using a refractometer (Brix % method). The equilibration data are shown in Graph 1. The results suggest the following equilibration scheme: 40% v/v

Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons of competing interventions: meta-epidemiological study.

PubMed

Song, Fujian; Xiong, Tengbin; Parekh-Bhurke, Sheetal; Loke, Yoon K; Sutton, Alex J; Eastwood, Alison J; Holland, Richard; Chen, Yen-Fu; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Deeks, Jonathan J; Altman, Doug G

2011-08-16

To investigate the agreement between direct and indirect comparisons of competing healthcare interventions. Meta-epidemiological study based on sample of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and PubMed. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews that provided sufficient data for both direct comparison and independent indirect comparisons of two interventions on the basis of a common comparator and in which the odds ratio could be used as the outcome statistic. Inconsistency measured by the difference in the log odds ratio between the direct and indirect methods. The study included 112 independent trial networks (including 1552 trials with 478,775 patients in total) that allowed both direct and indirect comparison of two interventions. Indirect comparison had already been explicitly done in only 13 of the 85 Cochrane reviews included. The inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison was statistically significant in 16 cases (14%, 95% confidence interval 9% to 22%). The statistically significant inconsistency was associated with fewer trials, subjectively assessed outcomes, and statistically significant effects of treatment in either direct or indirect comparisons. Owing to considerable inconsistency, many (14/39) of the statistically significant effects by direct comparison became non-significant when the direct and indirect estimates were combined. Significant inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons may be more prevalent than previously observed. Direct and indirect estimates should be combined in mixed treatment comparisons only after adequate assessment of the consistency of the evidence.

Inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons of competing interventions: meta-epidemiological study

PubMed Central

Xiong, Tengbin; Parekh-Bhurke, Sheetal; Loke, Yoon K; Sutton, Alex J; Eastwood, Alison J; Holland, Richard; Chen, Yen-Fu; Glenny, Anne-Marie; Deeks, Jonathan J; Altman, Doug G

2011-01-01

Objective To investigate the agreement between direct and indirect comparisons of competing healthcare interventions. Design Meta-epidemiological study based on sample of meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials. Data sources Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and PubMed. Inclusion criteria Systematic reviews that provided sufficient data for both direct comparison and independent indirect comparisons of two interventions on the basis of a common comparator and in which the odds ratio could be used as the outcome statistic. Main outcome measure Inconsistency measured by the difference in the log odds ratio between the direct and indirect methods. Results The study included 112 independent trial networks (including 1552 trials with 478 775 patients in total) that allowed both direct and indirect comparison of two interventions. Indirect comparison had already been explicitly done in only 13 of the 85 Cochrane reviews included. The inconsistency between the direct and indirect comparison was statistically significant in 16 cases (14%, 95% confidence interval 9% to 22%). The statistically significant inconsistency was associated with fewer trials, subjectively assessed outcomes, and statistically significant effects of treatment in either direct or indirect comparisons. Owing to considerable inconsistency, many (14/39) of the statistically significant effects by direct comparison became non-significant when the direct and indirect estimates were combined. Conclusions Significant inconsistency between direct and indirect comparisons may be more prevalent than previously observed. Direct and indirect estimates should be combined in mixed treatment comparisons only after adequate assessment of the consistency of the evidence. PMID:21846695

Understanding nanocellulose chirality and structure–properties relationship at the single fibril level

PubMed Central

Usov, Ivan; Nyström, Gustav; Adamcik, Jozef; Handschin, Stephan; Schütz, Christina; Fall, Andreas; Bergström, Lennart; Mezzenga, Raffaele

2015-01-01

Nanocellulose fibrils are ubiquitous in nature and nanotechnologies but their mesoscopic structural assembly is not yet fully understood. Here we study the structural features of rod-like cellulose nanoparticles on a single particle level, by applying statistical polymer physics concepts on electron and atomic force microscopy images, and we assess their physical properties via quantitative nanomechanical mapping. We show evidence of right-handed chirality, observed on both bundles and on single fibrils. Statistical analysis of contours from microscopy images shows a non-Gaussian kink angle distribution. This is inconsistent with a structure consisting of alternating amorphous and crystalline domains along the contour and supports process-induced kink formation. The intrinsic mechanical properties of nanocellulose are extracted from nanoindentation and persistence length method for transversal and longitudinal directions, respectively. The structural analysis is pushed to the level of single cellulose polymer chains, and their smallest associated unit with a proposed 2 × 2 chain-packing arrangement. PMID:26108282

Perceptual basis of evolving Western musical styles

PubMed Central

Rodriguez Zivic, Pablo H.; Shifres, Favio; Cecchi, Guillermo A.

2013-01-01

The brain processes temporal statistics to predict future events and to categorize perceptual objects. These statistics, called expectancies, are found in music perception, and they span a variety of different features and time scales. Specifically, there is evidence that music perception involves strong expectancies regarding the distribution of a melodic interval, namely, the distance between two consecutive notes within the context of another. The recent availability of a large Western music dataset, consisting of the historical record condensed as melodic interval counts, has opened new possibilities for data-driven analysis of musical perception. In this context, we present an analytical approach that, based on cognitive theories of music expectation and machine learning techniques, recovers a set of factors that accurately identifies historical trends and stylistic transitions between the Baroque, Classical, Romantic, and Post-Romantic periods. We also offer a plausible musicological and cognitive interpretation of these factors, allowing us to propose them as data-driven principles of melodic expectation. PMID:23716669

Fully moderated T-statistic for small sample size gene expression arrays.

PubMed

Yu, Lianbo; Gulati, Parul; Fernandez, Soledad; Pennell, Michael; Kirschner, Lawrence; Jarjoura, David

2011-09-15

Gene expression microarray experiments with few replications lead to great variability in estimates of gene variances. Several Bayesian methods have been developed to reduce this variability and to increase power. Thus far, moderated t methods assumed a constant coefficient of variation (CV) for the gene variances. We provide evidence against this assumption, and extend the method by allowing the CV to vary with gene expression. Our CV varying method, which we refer to as the fully moderated t-statistic, was compared to three other methods (ordinary t, and two moderated t predecessors). A simulation study and a familiar spike-in data set were used to assess the performance of the testing methods. The results showed that our CV varying method had higher power than the other three methods, identified a greater number of true positives in spike-in data, fit simulated data under varying assumptions very well, and in a real data set better identified higher expressing genes that were consistent with functional pathways associated with the experiments.

Conducting quantitative synthesis when comparing medical interventions: AHRQ and the Effective Health Care Program.

PubMed

Fu, Rongwei; Gartlehner, Gerald; Grant, Mark; Shamliyan, Tatyana; Sedrakyan, Art; Wilt, Timothy J; Griffith, Lauren; Oremus, Mark; Raina, Parminder; Ismaila, Afisi; Santaguida, Pasqualina; Lau, Joseph; Trikalinos, Thomas A

2011-11-01

This article is to establish recommendations for conducting quantitative synthesis, or meta-analysis, using study-level data in comparative effectiveness reviews (CERs) for the Evidence-based Practice Center (EPC) program of the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. We focused on recurrent issues in the EPC program and the recommendations were developed using group discussion and consensus based on current knowledge in the literature. We first discussed considerations for deciding whether to combine studies, followed by discussions on indirect comparison and incorporation of indirect evidence. Then, we described our recommendations on choosing effect measures and statistical models, giving special attention to combining studies with rare events; and on testing and exploring heterogeneity. Finally, we briefly presented recommendations on combining studies of mixed design and on sensitivity analysis. Quantitative synthesis should be conducted in a transparent and consistent way. Inclusion of multiple alternative interventions in CERs increases the complexity of quantitative synthesis, whereas the basic issues in quantitative synthesis remain crucial considerations in quantitative synthesis for a CER. We will cover more issues in future versions and update and improve recommendations with the accumulation of new research to advance the goal for transparency and consistency. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychometric properties of the Spanish version of the Experiencing of Self Scale (EOSS) for assessment in Functional Analytic Psychotherapy.

PubMed

Valero-Aguayo, Luis; Ferro-García, Rafael; López-Bermúdez, Miguel Ángel; Selva-López de Huralde, María de los Ángeles

2014-01-01

The Experiencing of Self Scale (EOSS) was created to evaluate the experience of the personal self, within the field of Functional Analytic Psychotherapy. This paper presents a study of the reliability and validity of the EOSS in a Spanish sample. The study sample, chosen from 24 different centres, comprised 1,040 participants aged between 18-75, of whom 32% were men and 68% women. The clinical sample was made up of 32.7%, whereas 67.3% had no known problem. To obtain evidence of convergent validity, other questionnaires related to the self (EPQ-R, DES, RSES) were used for comparison. The EOSS showed high internal consistency (Cronbach's α = .941) and significantly high correlations with the EPQ-R Neuroticism scale and the DES Dissociation scale, while showing negative correlations with the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES). The EOSS revealed 4 principal factors: a self in close relationships, a self with casual social relationships, a self in general and a positive self-concept. Significant statistical differences were found between the clinical and standard sample, the former showing a higher average. The EOSS had high internal consistency, showing evidence of convergent validity with similar scales and proving useful for the assessment of people with psychological problems related to the self.

Behavioural laterality as a predictor of health in captive Caribbean flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber): an exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Anderson, Matthew J; Ialeggio, Donna M

2014-01-01

The present study sought to explore the possibility that lateral behaviour in captive Caribbean flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber) housed at the Philadelphia Zoo (Philadelphia, PA) could be used to predict a variety of physiological measures of health obtained via complete blood counts (CBC) and plasma biochemistry analyses that were performed as part of the flock's annual physical examination. Consistent with previous research, evidence of rightward lateral neck-resting preferences were obtained, no evidence was found for the existence of leg stance preferences, and neck-resting and leg stance preferences were shown to be unrelated. Both lateral neck-resting preferences and lateral support leg preference were shown to be related to a variety of measures from the CBC and plasma biochemistry analyses. While several general trends emerged in regards to the CBC variables, the relationships between the lateral behaviours and those variables generated via plasma biochemistry analyses proved to be fewer and somewhat less consistent. Birds with rightward neck-resting preferences and birds with leftward support leg preferences generally appeared to be healthier and less stressed according to the CBC measures; however, the validity of lateral leg stance preference as a predictor of health and wellbeing is questionable given the lack of statistically significant leg stance preferences.

For whom will the Bayesian agents vote?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caticha, Nestor; Cesar, Jonatas; Vicente, Renato

2015-04-01

Within an agent-based model where moral classifications are socially learned, we ask if a population of agents behaves in a way that may be compared with conservative or liberal positions in the real political spectrum. We assume that agents first experience a formative period, in which they adjust their learning style acting as supervised Bayesian adaptive learners. The formative phase is followed by a period of social influence by reinforcement learning. By comparing data generated by the agents with data from a sample of 15000 Moral Foundation questionnaires we found the following. 1. The number of information exchanges in the formative phase correlates positively with statistics identifying liberals in the social influence phase. This is consistent with recent evidence that connects the dopamine receptor D4-7R gene, political orientation and early age social clique size. 2. The learning algorithms that result from the formative phase vary in the way they treat novelty and corroborative information with more conservative-like agents treating it more equally than liberal-like agents. This is consistent with the correlation between political affiliation and the Openness personality trait reported in the literature. 3. Under the increase of a model parameter interpreted as an external pressure, the statistics of liberal agents resemble more those of conservative agents, consistent with reports on the consequences of external threats on measures of conservatism. We also show that in the social influence phase liberal-like agents readapt much faster than conservative-like agents when subjected to changes on the relevant set of moral issues. This suggests a verifiable dynamical criterium for attaching liberal or conservative labels to groups.

Current and future health care professionals attitudes toward and knowledge of statistics: How confidence influences learning.

PubMed

Baghi, Heibatollah; Kornides, Melanie L

2013-01-01

Health care professionals require some understanding of statistics to successfully implement evidence based practice. Developing competency in statistical reasoning is necessary for students training in health care administration, research, and clinical care. Recently, the interest in healthcare professional's attitudes toward statistics has increased substantially due to evidence that these attitudes can hinder professionalism developing an understanding of statistical concepts. In this study, we analyzed pre- and post-instruction attitudes towards and knowledge of statistics obtained from health science graduate students, including nurses and nurse practitioners, enrolled in an introductory graduate course in statistics (n = 165). Results show that the students already held generally positive attitudes toward statistics at the beginning of course. However, these attitudes-along with the students' statistical proficiency-improved after 10 weeks of instruction. The results have implications for curriculum design and delivery methods as well as for health professionals' effective use of statistics in critically evaluating and utilizing research in their practices.

Current and future health care professionals attitudes toward and knowledge of statistics: How confidence influences learning

PubMed Central

Baghi, Heibatollah; Kornides, Melanie L.

2014-01-01

Background Health care professionals require some understanding of statistics to successfully implement evidence based practice. Developing competency in statistical reasoning is necessary for students training in health care administration, research, and clinical care. Recently, the interest in healthcare professional's attitudes toward statistics has increased substantially due to evidence that these attitudes can hinder professionalism developing an understanding of statistical concepts. Methods In this study, we analyzed pre- and post-instruction attitudes towards and knowledge of statistics obtained from health science graduate students, including nurses and nurse practitioners, enrolled in an introductory graduate course in statistics (n = 165). Results and Conclusions Results show that the students already held generally positive attitudes toward statistics at the beginning of course. However, these attitudes—along with the students’ statistical proficiency—improved after 10 weeks of instruction. The results have implications for curriculum design and delivery methods as well as for health professionals’ effective use of statistics in critically evaluating and utilizing research in their practices. PMID:25419256

Evaluating statistical consistency in the ocean model component of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v2.0)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, Allison H.; Hu, Yong; Hammerling, Dorit M.; Tseng, Yu-heng; Xu, Haiying; Huang, Xiaomeng; Bryan, Frank O.; Yang, Guangwen

2016-07-01

The Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the ocean model component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), is widely used in climate research. Most current work in CESM-POP focuses on improving the model's efficiency or accuracy, such as improving numerical methods, advancing parameterization, porting to new architectures, or increasing parallelism. Since ocean dynamics are chaotic in nature, achieving bit-for-bit (BFB) identical results in ocean solutions cannot be guaranteed for even tiny code modifications, and determining whether modifications are admissible (i.e., statistically consistent with the original results) is non-trivial. In recent work, an ensemble-based statistical approach was shown to work well for software verification (i.e., quality assurance) on atmospheric model data. The general idea of the ensemble-based statistical consistency testing is to use a qualitative measurement of the variability of the ensemble of simulations as a metric with which to compare future simulations and make a determination of statistical distinguishability. The capability to determine consistency without BFB results boosts model confidence and provides the flexibility needed, for example, for more aggressive code optimizations and the use of heterogeneous execution environments. Since ocean and atmosphere models have differing characteristics in term of dynamics, spatial variability, and timescales, we present a new statistical method to evaluate ocean model simulation data that requires the evaluation of ensemble means and deviations in a spatial manner. In particular, the statistical distribution from an ensemble of CESM-POP simulations is used to determine the standard score of any new model solution at each grid point. Then the percentage of points that have scores greater than a specified threshold indicates whether the new model simulation is statistically distinguishable from the ensemble simulations. Both ensemble size and composition are important. Our experiments indicate that the new POP ensemble consistency test (POP-ECT) tool is capable of distinguishing cases that should be statistically consistent with the ensemble and those that should not, as well as providing a simple, subjective and systematic way to detect errors in CESM-POP due to the hardware or software stack, positively contributing to quality assurance for the CESM-POP code.

What is the effect of surgery on the quality of life of the adolescent with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis? A review and statistical analysis of the literature.

PubMed

Rushton, Paul R P; Grevitt, Michael P

2013-04-20

Review and statistical analysis of studies evaluating the effect of surgery on the health-related quality of life of adolescents with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, using Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) outcomes. Apply published minimum clinical important differences (MCID) values for the SRS22r questionnaire to the literature to identify what areas of health-related quality of life are consistently affected by surgery and whether changes are clinically meaningful. The interpretation of published studies using the SRS outcomes has been limited by the lack of MCID values for the questionnaire domains. The recent publication of these data allows the clinical importance of any changes in these studies to be examined for the first time. A literature search was undertaken to locate suitable studies that were then analyzed. Statistically significant differences from baseline to 2 years postoperatively were ascertained by narratively reporting the analyses within included studies. When possible, clinically significant changes were assessed using 95% confidence intervals for the change in mean domain score. If the lower bound of the confidence intervals for the change exceeded the MCID for that domain, the change was considered clinically significant. The numbers of cohorts available for the different analyses varied (5-16). Eighty-one percent and 94% of included cohorts experienced statistically significant improvements in pain and self-image domains. In terms of clinical significance, it was only self-image that regularly improved by more than MCID, doing so in 4 of 5 included cohorts (80%) compared with 1 of 12 cohorts (8%) for pain. No clinically relevant changes occurred in mental health or activity domains. Evidence suggests that surgery can lead to clinically important improvement in patient self-image. Surgeons and patients should be aware of the limited evidence for improvements in domains other than self-image after surgery. Surgical decision-making will also be influenced by the natural history of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Do physicians understand cancer screening statistics? A national survey of primary care physicians in the United States.

PubMed

Wegwarth, Odette; Schwartz, Lisa M; Woloshin, Steven; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Gigerenzer, Gerd

2012-03-06

Unlike reduced mortality rates, improved survival rates and increased early detection do not prove that cancer screening tests save lives. Nevertheless, these 2 statistics are often used to promote screening. To learn whether primary care physicians understand which statistics provide evidence about whether screening saves lives. Parallel-group, randomized trial (randomization controlled for order effect only), conducted by Internet survey. (ClinicalTrials.gov registration number: NCT00981019) National sample of U.S. primary care physicians from a research panel maintained by Harris Interactive (79% cooperation rate). 297 physicians who practiced both inpatient and outpatient medicine were surveyed in 2010, and 115 physicians who practiced exclusively outpatient medicine were surveyed in 2011. Physicians received scenarios about the effect of 2 hypothetical screening tests: The effect was described as improved 5-year survival and increased early detection in one scenario and as decreased cancer mortality and increased incidence in the other. Physicians' recommendation of screening and perception of its benefit in the scenarios and general knowledge of screening statistics. Primary care physicians were more enthusiastic about the screening test supported by irrelevant evidence (5-year survival increased from 68% to 99%) than about the test supported by relevant evidence (cancer mortality reduced from 2 to 1.6 in 1000 persons). When presented with irrelevant evidence, 69% of physicians recommended the test, compared with 23% when presented with relevant evidence (P < 0.001). When asked general knowledge questions about screening statistics, many physicians did not distinguish between irrelevant and relevant screening evidence; 76% versus 81%, respectively, stated that each of these statistics proves that screening saves lives (P = 0.39). About one half (47%) of the physicians incorrectly said that finding more cases of cancer in screened as opposed to unscreened populations "proves that screening saves lives." Physicians' recommendations for screening were based on hypothetical scenarios, not actual practice. Most primary care physicians mistakenly interpreted improved survival and increased detection with screening as evidence that screening saves lives. Few correctly recognized that only reduced mortality in a randomized trial constitutes evidence of the benefit of screening. Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development.

Meta-analyses evaluating surrogate endpoints for overall survival in cancer randomized trials: A critical review.

PubMed

Savina, Marion; Gourgou, Sophie; Italiano, Antoine; Dinart, Derek; Rondeau, Virginie; Penel, Nicolas; Mathoulin-Pelissier, Simone; Bellera, Carine

2018-03-01

In cancer randomized controlled trials (RCT), alternative endpoints are increasingly being used in place of overall survival (OS) to reduce sample size, duration and cost of trials. It is necessary to ensure that these endpoints are valid surrogates for OS. Our aim was to identify meta-analyses that evaluated surrogate endpoints for OS and assess the strength of evidence for each meta-analysis (MA). We performed a systematic review to identify MA of cancer RCTs assessing surrogate endpoints for OS. We evaluated the strength of the association between the endpoints based on (i) the German Institute of Quality and Efficiency in Health Care guidelines and (ii) the Biomarker-Surrogate Evaluation Schema. Fifty-three publications reported on 164 MA, with heterogeneous statistical methods Disease-free survival (DFS) and progression-free survival (PFS) showed good surrogacy properties for OS in colorectal, lung and head and neck cancers. DFS was highly correlated to OS in gastric cancer. The statistical methodology used to evaluate surrogate endpoints requires consistency in order to facilitate the accurate interpretation of the results. Despite the limited number of clinical settings with validated surrogate endpoints for OS, there is evidence of good surrogacy for DFS and PFS in tumor types that account for a large proportion of cancer cases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of seasonal variation, age and smoking status on human semen parameters: The Massachusetts General Hospital experience

PubMed Central

Chen, Zuying; Godfrey-Bailey, Linda; Schiff, Isaac; Hauser, Russ

2004-01-01

Background To investigate the relationship of human semen parameters with season, age and smoking status. Methods The present study used data from subjects recruited into an ongoing cross-sectional study on the relationship between environmental agents and semen characteristics. Our population consisted of 306 patients who presented to the Vincent Memorial Andrology Laboratory of Massachusetts General Hospital for semen evaluation. Sperm concentration and motility were measured with computer aided sperm analysis (CASA). Sperm morphology was scored using Tygerberg Kruger strict criteria. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between semen parameters and season, age and smoking status, adjusting for abstinence interval. Results Sperm concentration in the spring was significantly higher than in winter, fall and summer (p < 0.05). There was suggestive evidence of higher sperm motility and percent of sperm with normal morphology in the spring than in the other seasons. There were no statistically significant relationships between semen parameters and smoking status, though current smokers tended to have lower sperm concentration. We also did not find a statistically significant relationship between age and semen parameters. Conclusions We found seasonal variations in sperm concentration and suggestive evidence of seasonal variation in sperm motility and percent sperm with normal morphology. Although smoking status was not a significant predictor of semen parameters, this may have been due to the small number of current smokers in the study. PMID:15507127

Calcium and vitamin D for obesity: a review of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Soares, M J; Chan She Ping-Delfos, W; Ghanbari, M H

2011-09-01

Obesity often coexists with low calcium intake and vitamin D insufficiency. There is emerging evidence of a role for these nutrients in the regulation of body weight. However, it is unclear whether increasing intakes of calcium and/or vitamin D during energy restriction, is a better strategy for weight and fat loss. We searched the literature from 2000 to date for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on weight loss that had increased calcium or vitamin D per se, or in combination. Primary and secondary studies were included for this analysis. A total of 15 RCTs on calcium with or without vitamin D and seven on vitamin D alone met our criteria. Two studies reported that supplemental calcium significantly increased fat loss during caloric restriction by 1.8 and 2.2 kg, three found differences between 1 and 3.5 kg but were statistically nonsignificant, while nine trials were equivocal (±0.7 kg). The data on vitamin D supplementation during weight loss were too few to make firm conclusions. Current evidence from RCTs did not consistently support the contention that calcium and vitamin D accelerated weight or fat loss in obesity. There were studies that favoured the hypothesis but lacked the statistical power. There is a need for RCTs to examine the influence of vitamin D on body fat.

Scaling properties of the two-dimensional randomly stirred Navier-Stokes equation.

PubMed

Mazzino, Andrea; Muratore-Ginanneschi, Paolo; Musacchio, Stefano

2007-10-05

We inquire into the scaling properties of the 2D Navier-Stokes equation sustained by a force field with Gaussian statistics, white noise in time, and with a power-law correlation in momentum space of degree 2 - 2 epsilon. This is at variance with the setting usually assumed to derive Kraichnan's classical theory. We contrast accurate numerical experiments with the different predictions provided for the small epsilon regime by Kraichnan's double cascade theory and by renormalization group analysis. We give clear evidence that for all epsilon, Kraichnan's theory is consistent with the observed phenomenology. Our results call for a revision in the renormalization group analysis of (2D) fully developed turbulence.

Topical review: sluggish cognitive tempo: research findings and relevance for pediatric psychology.

PubMed

Becker, Stephen P

2013-11-01

To summarize recent research on sluggish cognitive tempo (SCT) and consider the potential relevance of SCT for the field of pediatric psychology. Literature review. Recent empirical evidence shows SCT symptoms consisting of sluggish/sleepy and daydreamy behaviors to be distinct from Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition (DSM-IV) Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) symptoms. SCT is associated with psychosocial functioning in children and adolescents, including internalizing symptoms, social withdrawal, and, possibly, academic impairment. The recent findings reviewed suggest that SCT is an important construct for pediatric psychologists to be aware of and may also be directly useful for the research and practice of pediatric psychology.

1/f noise and plastic deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurson, Lasse

2006-11-01

There is increasing evidence from experiments that plastic deformation in the micro- and meso- scopic scales is an intermittent and heterogeneous process, consisting of avalanches of dislocation activity with a power law distribution of sizes. This has been also discovered in many simulation studies of simplified models. In addition to direct studies of the avalanche statistics, interesting information about the dynamics of the system can be obtained by studying the spectral proper- ties of some associated time series, such as the acoustic emission amplitude in an experiment. We discuss the generic aspects concerning the power spectra of such signals, e.g. the possibility of relating the exponent of the power spectrum to the avalanche exponents of the (dislocation) system.

Pilot scanning patterns while viewing cockpit displays of traffic information

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, S. R.; Stark, L.

1981-01-01

Scanning eye movements of airline pilots were recorded while they judged air traffic situations displayed on cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI). The observed 1st order transition patterns between points of interest on the display showed reliable deviation from those patterns predicted by the assumption of statistical independence. However, both patterns of transitions correlated quite well with each other. Accordingly, the assumption of independence provided a surprisingly good model of the results. Nevertheless, the deviation between the observed patterns of transition and that based on the assumption of independence was for all subjects in the direction of increased determinism. Thus, the results provide objective evidence consistent with the existence of "scanpaths" in the data.

Dark matter candidate with well-defined mass and couplings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Roland

2017-01-01

There is as yet no confirmed and statistically significant evidence for direct, indirect, or collider-based detection of dark matter. However, several indirect searches, including AMS-02, Fermi-LAT, and PAMELA, have shown an intriguing excess of positrons when compared to expectations. Here we predict a Higgs-related but spin 1/2 dark matter candidate with a mass of 125 GeV. Since an initially reported 130 GeV gamma-ray excess has been abandoned by the full Fermi-LAT collaboration, this is a genuine prediction rather than postdiction. It would be consistent with a prediction of 125 GeV freshly-created positrons and antiprotons, but the complicated propagation of charged particles makes a comparison problematical.

Emperical Laws in Economics Uncovered Using Methods in Statistical Mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, H. Eugene

2001-06-01

In recent years, statistical physicists and computational physicists have determined that physical systems which consist of a large number of interacting particles obey universal "scaling laws" that serve to demonstrate an intrinsic self-similarity operating in such systems. Further, the parameters appearing in these scaling laws appear to be largely independent of the microscopic details. Since economic systems also consist of a large number of interacting units, it is plausible that scaling theory can be usefully applied to economics. To test this possibility using realistic data sets, a number of scientists have begun analyzing economic data using methods of statistical physics [1]. We have found evidence for scaling (and data collapse), as well as universality, in various quantities, and these recent results will be reviewed in this talk--starting with the most recent study [2]. We also propose models that may lead to some insight into these phenomena. These results will be discussed, as well as the overall rationale for why one might expect scaling principles to hold for complex economic systems. This work on which this talk is based is supported by BP, and was carried out in collaboration with L. A. N. Amaral S. V. Buldyrev, D. Canning, P. Cizeau, X. Gabaix, P. Gopikrishnan, S. Havlin, Y. Lee, Y. Liu, R. N. Mantegna, K. Matia, M. Meyer, C.-K. Peng, V. Plerou, M. A. Salinger, and M. H. R. Stanley. [1.] See, e.g., R. N. Mantegna and H. E. Stanley, Introduction to Econophysics: Correlations & Complexity in Finance (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1999). [2.] P. Gopikrishnan, B. Rosenow, V. Plerou, and H. E. Stanley, "Identifying Business Sectors from Stock Price Fluctuations," e-print cond-mat/0011145; V. Plerou, P. Gopikrishnan, L. A. N. Amaral, X. Gabaix, and H. E. Stanley, "Diffusion and Economic Fluctuations," Phys. Rev. E (Rapid Communications) 62, 3023-3026 (2000); P. Gopikrishnan, V. Plerou, X. Gabaix, and H. E. Stanley, "Statistical Properties of Share Volume Traded in Financial Markets," Phys. Rev. E (Rapid Communications) 62, 4493-4496 (2000).

Antibiotics for exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

PubMed

Vollenweider, Daniela J; Jarrett, Harish; Steurer-Stey, Claudia A; Garcia-Aymerich, Judith; Puhan, Milo A

2012-12-12

Many patients with an exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are treated with antibiotics. However, the value of antibiotics remains uncertain as systematic reviews and clinical trials have shown conflicting results. To assess the effects of antibiotics in the management of acute COPD exacerbations on treatment failure as observed between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (primary outcome) and on other patient-important outcomes (mortality, adverse events, length of hospital stay). We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE and other electronically available databases up to September 2012. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in people with acute COPD exacerbations comparing antibiotic therapy and placebo with a follow-up of at least seven days. Two review authors independently screened references and extracted data from trial reports. We kept the three groups of outpatients, inpatients and patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) separate for benefit outcomes and mortality because we considered them to be clinically too different to be summarised in one group. We considered outpatients to have a mild to moderate exacerbation, inpatients to have a severe exacerbation and ICU patients to have a very severe exacerbation. Where outcomes or study details were not reported we requested missing data from the authors of the primary studies. We calculated pooled risk ratios (RR) for treatment failure, Peto odds ratios (OR) for rare events (mortality and adverse events) and weighted mean differences (MD) for continuous outcomes using fixed-effect models. We used GRADE to assess the quality of the evidence. Sixteen trials with 2068 participants were included. In outpatients (mild to moderate exacerbations), there was evidence of low quality that antibiotics did statistically significantly reduce the risk for treatment failure between seven days and one month after treatment initiation (RR 0.75; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.94; I(2) = 35%) but they did not significantly reduce the risk when the meta-analysis was restricted to currently available drugs (RR 0.80; 95% CI 0.63 to 1.01; I(2) = 33%). Evidence of high quality showed that antibiotics statistically significantly reduced the risk of treatment failure in inpatients with severe exacerbations (ICU not included) (RR 0.77; 95% CI 0.65 to 0.91; I(2) = 47%) regardless of whether restricted to current drugs. The only trial with 93 patients admitted to the ICU showed a large and statistically significant effect on treatment failure (RR 0.19; 95% CI 0.08 to 0.45; high-quality evidence).Evidence of low-quality from four trials in inpatients showed no effect of antibiotics on mortality (Peto OR 1.02; 95% CI 0.37 to 2.79). High-quality evidence from one trial showed a statistically significant effect on mortality in ICU patients (Peto OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.72). Length of hospital stay (in days) was similar in the antibiotics and placebo groups except for the ICU study where antibiotics statistically significantly reduced length of hospital stay (mean difference -9.60 days; 95% CI -12.84 to -6.36 days). One trial showed no effect of antibiotics on re-exacerbations between two and six weeks after treatment initiation. Only one trial (N = 35) reported health-related quality of life but did not show a statistically significant difference between the treatment and control group.Evidence of moderate quality showed that the overall incidence of adverse events was higher in the antibiotics groups (Peto OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.03 to 2.27). Patients treated with antibiotics experienced statistically significantly more diarrhoea based on three trials (Peto OR 2.62; 95% CI 1.11 to 6.17; high-quality evidence). Antibiotics for COPD exacerbations showed large and consistent beneficial effects across outcomes of patients admitted to an ICU. However, for outpatients and inpatients the results were inconsistent. The risk for treatment failure was significantly reduced in both inpatients and outpatients when all trials (1957 to 2012) were included but not when the analysis for outpatients was restricted to currently used antibiotics. Also, antibiotics had no statistically significant effect on mortality and length of hospital stay in inpatients and almost no data on patient-reported outcomes exist. These inconsistent effects call for research into clinical signs and biomarkers that help identify patients who benefit from antibiotics and patients who experience no effect, and in whom downsides of antibiotics (side effects, costs and multi-resistance) could be avoided.

42 CFR 402.109 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 402.109 Section 402.109... Statistical sampling. (a) Purpose. CMS or OIG may introduce the results of a statistical sampling study to... or caused to be presented. (b) Prima facie evidence. The results of the statistical sampling study...

42 CFR 402.109 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 402.109 Section 402.109... Statistical sampling. (a) Purpose. CMS or OIG may introduce the results of a statistical sampling study to... or caused to be presented. (b) Prima facie evidence. The results of the statistical sampling study...

WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE IN ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT

EPA Science Inventory

This document provides guidance on methods for weighing ecological evidence using a a standard framework consisting of three steps: assemble evidence, weight evidence and weigh the body of evidence. Use of the methods will improve the consistency and reliability of WoE-based asse...

Association between periodontal disease and mortality in people with CKD: a meta-analysis of cohort studies.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Jiang, Hong; Sun, Min; Chen, Jianghua

2017-08-16

Periodontal disease occurs relatively prevalently in people with chronic kidney disease (CKD), but it remains indeterminate whether periodontal disease is an independent risk factor for premature death in this population. Interventions to reduce mortality in CKD population consistently yield to unsatisfactory results and new targets are necessitated. So this meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association between periodontal disease and mortality in the CKD population. Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and abstracts from recent relevant meeting were searched by two authors independently. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for overall and subgroup meta-analyses. Statistical heterogeneity was explored by chi-square test and quantified by the I 2 statistic. Eight cohort studies comprising 5477 individuals with CKD were incorporated. The overall pooled data demonstrated that periodontal disease was associated with all-cause death in CKD population (RR, 1.254; 95% CI 1.046-1.503; P = 0.005), with a moderate heterogeneity, I 2  = 52.2%. However, no evident association was observed between periodontal disease and cardiovascular mortality (RR, 1.30, 95% CI, 0.82-2.06; P = 0.259). Besides, statistical heterogeneity was substantial (I 2  = 72.5%; P = 0.012). Associations for mortality were similar between subgroups, such as the different stages of CKD, adjustment for confounding factors. Specific to all-cause death, sensitivity and cumulative analyses both suggested that our results were robust. As for cardiovascular mortality, the association with periodontal disease needs to be further strengthened. We demonstrated that periodontal disease was associated with an increased risk of all-cause death in CKD people. Yet no adequate evidence suggested periodontal disease was also at elevated risk for cardiovascular death.

Residential cancer cluster investigation nearby a Superfund Study Area with trichloroethylene contamination.

PubMed

Press, David J; McKinley, Meg; Deapen, Dennis; Clarke, Christina A; Gomez, Scarlett Lin

2016-05-01

Trichloroethylene (TCE) is an industrial solvent associated with liver cancer, kidney cancer, and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). It is unclear whether an excess of TCE-associated cancers have occurred surrounding the Middlefield-Ellis-Whisman Superfund site in Mountain View, California. We conducted a population-based cancer cluster investigation comparing the incidence of NHL, liver, and kidney cancers in the neighborhood of interest to the incidence among residents in the surrounding four-county region. Case counts and address information were obtained using routinely collected data from the Greater Bay Area Cancer Registry, part of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Population denominators were obtained from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 US censuses. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with two-sided 99 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for time intervals surrounding the US Censuses. There were no statistically significant differences between the neighborhood of interest and the larger region for cancers of the liver or kidney. A statistically significant elevation was observed for NHL during one of the three time periods evaluated (1996-2005: SIR = 1.8, 99 % CI 1.1-2.8). No statistically significant NHL elevation existed in the earlier 1988-1995 (SIR = 1.3, 99 % CI 0.5-2.6) or later 2006-2011 (SIR = 1.3, 99 % CI 0.6-2.4) periods. There is no evidence of an increased incidence of liver or kidney cancer, and there is a lack of evidence of a consistent, sustained, or more recent elevation in NHL occurrence in this neighborhood. This evaluation included existing cancer registry data, which cannot speak to specific exposures incurred by past or current residents of this neighborhood.

Residential cancer cluster investigation nearby a Superfund Study Area with trichloroethylene contamination

PubMed Central

McKinley, Meg; Deapen, Dennis; Clarke, Christina A.; Gomez, Scarlett Lin

2017-01-01

Purpose Trichloroethylene (TCE) is an industrial solvent associated with liver cancer, kidney cancer, and non- Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL). It is unclear whether an excess of TCE-associated cancers have occurred surrounding the Middlefield–Ellis–Whisman Superfund site in Mountain View, California. We conducted a population- based cancer cluster investigation comparing the incidence of NHL, liver, and kidney cancers in the neighborhood of interest to the incidence among residents in the surrounding four-county region. Methods Case counts and address information were obtained using routinely collected data from the Greater Bay Area Cancer Registry, part of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. Population denominators were obtained from the 1990, 2000, and 2010 US censuses. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with two- sided 99 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for time intervals surrounding the US Censuses. Results There were no statistically significant differences between the neighborhood of interest and the larger region for cancers of the liver or kidney. A statistically significant elevation was observed for NHL during one of the three time periods evaluated (1996–2005: SIR = 1.8, 99 % CI 1.1–2.8). No statistically significant NHL elevation existed in the earlier 1988–1995 (SIR = 1.3, 99 % CI 0.5–2.6) or later 2006–2011 (SIR = 1.3, 99 % CI 0.6–2.4) periods. Conclusion There is no evidence of an increased incidence of liver or kidney cancer, and there is a lack of evidence of a consistent, sustained, or more recent elevation in NHL occurrence in this neighborhood. This evaluation included existing cancer registry data, which cannot speak to specific exposures incurred by past or current residents of this neighborhood. PMID:26983615

Response of feline eosinophilic plaques and lip ulcers to amoxicillin trihydrate-clavulanate potassium therapy: a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled prospective study.

PubMed

Wildermuth, Brett E; Griffin, Craig E; Rosenkrantz, Wayne S

2012-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the treatment of feline eosinophilic plaques and lip ulcers with amoxicillin trihydrate-potassium clavulanate (Clavamox(®); Pfizer Animal Health). Nineteen cats with clinical and cytological findings consistent with eosinophilic plaques and/or lip ulcers were enrolled. Lesions were photographed and their areas measured in square centimetres before and after 21 days of therapy with either flavoured amoxicillin-clavulanate suspension or flavoured placebo suspension. Sixteen cats completed the study, with nine plaque lesions (four treatment and five placebo) and eight lip ulcer lesions (four treatment and four placebo) included in the analysis. All lesions were shown to have infection, with bacterial phagocytosis present on cytological examination. Coagulase-positive staphylococci were the most commonly isolated bacteria. The amoxicillin-clavulanate-treated eosinophilic plaque group had a statistically significant 96.2% reduction in mean lesion size (-7.60 cm(2), P = 0.0078) and an 80% reduction in mean percentage of microscopic fields demonstrating evidence of bacterial infection (P < 0.0001), whereas the placebo group did not. The amoxicillin-clavulanate-treated lip ulcer group had a 42.6% decrease in mean lesion size (-0.25 cm(2), P = 0.4125) and the placebo group a 36.6% increase (+0.49 cm(2), P = 0.1575), although neither change was statistically significant. The amoxicillin-clavulanate-treated lip ulcer group had a statistically significant 65.0% reduction in mean percentage of microscopic fields demonstrating evidence of bacterial infection (P < 0.0001), while no significant reduction was observed in the placebo group. A suspension of amoxicillin trihydrate-potassium clavulanate is an effective monotherapy for the treatment of feline eosinophilic plaques. © 2011 The Authors. Veterinary Dermatology. © 2011 ESVD and ACVD.

The earth is flat (p > 0.05): significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research.

PubMed

Amrhein, Valentin; Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Roth, Tobias

2017-01-01

The widespread use of 'statistical significance' as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (according to the American Statistical Association). We review why degrading p -values into 'significant' and 'nonsignificant' contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making them seem irreproducible. A major problem is that we tend to take small p -values at face value, but mistrust results with larger p -values. In either case, p -values tell little about reliability of research, because they are hardly replicable even if an alternative hypothesis is true. Also significance ( p  ≤ 0.05) is hardly replicable: at a good statistical power of 80%, two studies will be 'conflicting', meaning that one is significant and the other is not, in one third of the cases if there is a true effect. A replication can therefore not be interpreted as having failed only because it is nonsignificant. Many apparent replication failures may thus reflect faulty judgment based on significance thresholds rather than a crisis of unreplicable research. Reliable conclusions on replicability and practical importance of a finding can only be drawn using cumulative evidence from multiple independent studies. However, applying significance thresholds makes cumulative knowledge unreliable. One reason is that with anything but ideal statistical power, significant effect sizes will be biased upwards. Interpreting inflated significant results while ignoring nonsignificant results will thus lead to wrong conclusions. But current incentives to hunt for significance lead to selective reporting and to publication bias against nonsignificant findings. Data dredging, p -hacking, and publication bias should be addressed by removing fixed significance thresholds. Consistent with the recommendations of the late Ronald Fisher, p -values should be interpreted as graded measures of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. Also larger p -values offer some evidence against the null hypothesis, and they cannot be interpreted as supporting the null hypothesis, falsely concluding that 'there is no effect'. Information on possible true effect sizes that are compatible with the data must be obtained from the point estimate, e.g., from a sample average, and from the interval estimate, such as a confidence interval. We review how confusion about interpretation of larger p -values can be traced back to historical disputes among the founders of modern statistics. We further discuss potential arguments against removing significance thresholds, for example that decision rules should rather be more stringent, that sample sizes could decrease, or that p -values should better be completely abandoned. We conclude that whatever method of statistical inference we use, dichotomous threshold thinking must give way to non-automated informed judgment.

The earth is flat (p > 0.05): significance thresholds and the crisis of unreplicable research

PubMed Central

Korner-Nievergelt, Fränzi; Roth, Tobias

2017-01-01

The widespread use of ‘statistical significance’ as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process (according to the American Statistical Association). We review why degrading p-values into ‘significant’ and ‘nonsignificant’ contributes to making studies irreproducible, or to making them seem irreproducible. A major problem is that we tend to take small p-values at face value, but mistrust results with larger p-values. In either case, p-values tell little about reliability of research, because they are hardly replicable even if an alternative hypothesis is true. Also significance (p ≤ 0.05) is hardly replicable: at a good statistical power of 80%, two studies will be ‘conflicting’, meaning that one is significant and the other is not, in one third of the cases if there is a true effect. A replication can therefore not be interpreted as having failed only because it is nonsignificant. Many apparent replication failures may thus reflect faulty judgment based on significance thresholds rather than a crisis of unreplicable research. Reliable conclusions on replicability and practical importance of a finding can only be drawn using cumulative evidence from multiple independent studies. However, applying significance thresholds makes cumulative knowledge unreliable. One reason is that with anything but ideal statistical power, significant effect sizes will be biased upwards. Interpreting inflated significant results while ignoring nonsignificant results will thus lead to wrong conclusions. But current incentives to hunt for significance lead to selective reporting and to publication bias against nonsignificant findings. Data dredging, p-hacking, and publication bias should be addressed by removing fixed significance thresholds. Consistent with the recommendations of the late Ronald Fisher, p-values should be interpreted as graded measures of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. Also larger p-values offer some evidence against the null hypothesis, and they cannot be interpreted as supporting the null hypothesis, falsely concluding that ‘there is no effect’. Information on possible true effect sizes that are compatible with the data must be obtained from the point estimate, e.g., from a sample average, and from the interval estimate, such as a confidence interval. We review how confusion about interpretation of larger p-values can be traced back to historical disputes among the founders of modern statistics. We further discuss potential arguments against removing significance thresholds, for example that decision rules should rather be more stringent, that sample sizes could decrease, or that p-values should better be completely abandoned. We conclude that whatever method of statistical inference we use, dichotomous threshold thinking must give way to non-automated informed judgment. PMID:28698825

Sexual orientation and future parenthood in a 2011-2013 nationally representative United States sample.

PubMed

Riskind, Rachel G; Tornello, Samantha L

2017-09-01

Previous researchers have found evidence for differences in parenting goals between lesbian and gay people and their heterosexual peers. However, no previous research has quantified the parenting goals of bisexual people or evaluated parenting goals as a function of sexual partner gender. In addition, political and social climates for sexual minority people had improved rapidly since the last representative data on lesbian and gay peoples' plans for parenthood were collected. We analyzed data from 3,941 childless lesbian, gay, bisexual, and heterosexual participants from the 2011-2013 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG; United States Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, 2014), a nationally representative sample of United States residents aged 15 to 44 years. We found that statistically significant, within-gender sexual orientation differences in parenting plans persist, despite social and legal changes. Consistent with hypotheses, bisexual men's parenting desires and intentions were similar to those of their heterosexual male peers and different from those of their gay male peers, while bisexual women's reports were more mixed. Also consistent with hypotheses, the gender of the most recent sexual partner was a strong predictor of parenting goals. We discuss implications for mental and reproductive health-care providers, attorneys, social workers, and others who interact with sexual minority adults. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Development and evaluation of the Internalized Racism in Asian Americans Scale (IRAAS).

PubMed

Choi, Andrew Young; Israel, Tania; Maeda, Hotaka

2017-01-01

This article presents the development and psychometric evaluation of the Internalized Racism in Asian Americans Scale (IRAAS), which was designed to measure the degree to which Asian Americans internalized hostile attitudes and negative messages targeted toward their racial identity. Items were developed on basis of prior literature, vetted through expert feedback and cognitive interviews, and administered to 655 Asian American participants through Amazon Mechanical Turk. Exploratory factor analysis with a random subsample (n = 324) yielded a psychometrically robust preliminary measurement model consisting of 3 factors: Self-Negativity, Weakness Stereotypes, and Appearance Bias. Confirmatory factor analysis with a separate subsample (n = 331) indicated that the proposed correlated factors model was strongly consistent with the observed data. Factor determinacies were high and demonstrated that the specified items adequately measured their intended factors. Bifactor modeling further indicated that this multidimensionality could be univocally represented for the purpose of measurement, including the use of a mean total score representing a single continuum of internalized racism on which individuals vary. The IRAAS statistically predicted depressive symptoms, and demonstrated statistically significant correlations in theoretically expected directions with four dimensions of collective self-esteem. These results provide initial validity evidence supporting the use of the IRAAS to measure aspects of internalized racism in this population. Limitations and research implications are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Radon and risk of death from cancer and cardiovascular diseases in the German uranium miners cohort study: follow-up 1946-2003.

PubMed

Kreuzer, Michaela; Grosche, B; Schnelzer, M; Tschense, A; Dufey, F; Walsh, L

2010-05-01

Data from the German uranium miners cohort study were analyzed to investigate the radon-related risk of mortality from cancer and cardiovascular diseases. The Wismut cohort includes 58,987 men who were employed for at least 6 months from 1946 to 1989 at the former Wismut uranium mining company in Eastern Germany. By the end of 2003, a total of 3,016 lung cancer deaths, 3,355 deaths from extrapulmonary cancers, 5,141 deaths from heart diseases and 1,742 deaths from cerebrovascular diseases were observed. Although a number of studies have already been published on various endpoints in the Wismut cohort, the aim of the present analyses is to provide a direct comparison of the magnitude of radon-related risk for different cancer sites and cardiovascular diseases using the same data set, the same follow-up period and the same statistical methods. A specific focus on a group of cancers of the extrathoracic airways is also made here, due to the assumed high organ doses from absorbed radon progeny. Internal Poisson regression was used to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) per unit of cumulative exposure to radon in working level months (WLM) and its 95% confidence limits (CI). There was a statistically significant increase in the risk of lung cancer with increasing radon exposure (ERR/WLM = 0.19%; 95% CI: 0.17%; 0.22%). A smaller, but also statistically significant excess was found for cancers of the extrathoracic airways and trachea (ERR/WLM = 0.062%; 95% CI: 0.002%; 0.121%). Most of the remaining nonrespiratory cancer sites showed a positive relationship with increasing radon exposure, which, however, did not reach statistical significance. No increase in risk was noted for coronary heart diseases (ERR/WLM = 0.0003%) and cerebrovascular diseases (ERR/WLM = 0.001%). The present data provide clear evidence of an increased radon-related risk of death from lung cancer, some evidence for an increased radon-related risk of death from cancers of the extrathoracic airways and some other extrapulmonary cancers, and no evidence for mortality from cardiovascular diseases. These findings are consistent with the results of other miner studies and dosimetric calculations for radon-related organ doses.

EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT WARM-UP PROGRAMS ON GOLF PERFORMANCE IN ELITE MALE GOLFERS

PubMed Central

Macfarlane, Alison

2012-01-01

Background: The physical demands required of the body to execute a shot in golf are enormous. Current evidence suggests that warm-up involving static stretching is detrimental to immediate performance in golf as opposed to active dynamic stretching. However the effect of resistance exercises during warm-up before golf on immediate performance is unknown. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess the effects of three different warm-up programs on immediate golf performance. Methods: Fifteen elite male golfers completed three different warm-up programs over three sessions on non-consecutive days. After each warm-up program each participant hit ten maximal drives with the ball flight and swing analyzed with Flightscope® to record maximum club head speed (MCHS), maximal driving distance (MDD), driving accuracy (DA), smash factor (SF) and consistent ball strike (CBS). Results: Repeated measures ANOVA tests showed statistically significant difference within 3 of the 5 factors of performance (MDD, CBS and SF). Subsequently, a paired t-test then showed statistically significant (p<0.05) improvements occurred in each of these three factors in the group performing a combined active dynamic and functional resistance (FR) warm-up as opposed to either the active dynamic (AD) warm-up or the combined AD with weights warm-up (WT). There were no statistically significant differences observed between the AD warm-up and the WT warm-up for any of the five performance factors and no statistical significant difference between any of the warm-ups for maximum clubhead speed (MCHS) and driving accuracy (DA). Conclusion: Performing a combined AD and FR warm up with Theraband® leads to significant increase in immediate performance of certain factors of the golf drive compared to performing an AD warm-up by itself or a combined AD with WT warm-up. No significant difference was observed between the three warm-up groups when looking at immediate effect on driving accuracy or maximum club head speed. The addition of functional resistance activities to active dynamic stretching has immediate benefits to elite male golfers in relation to some factors of their performance. Level of Evidence: This study is a Quantitative Experimental design using repeated measures and multiple crossovers. It cannot be classified using the descriptive level of evidence. PMID:23936749

Clustering, randomness, and regularity in cloud fields. 4. Stratocumulus cloud fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Chou, J.; Weger, R. C.; Welch, R. M.

1994-07-01

To complete the analysis of the spatial distribution of boundary layer cloudiness, the present study focuses on nine stratocumulus Landsat scenes. The results indicate many similarities between stratocumulus and cumulus spatial distributions. Most notably, at full spatial resolution all scenes exhibit a decidedly clustered distribution. The strength of the clustering signal decreases with increasing cloud size; the clusters themselves consist of a few clouds (less than 10), occupy a small percentage of the cloud field area (less than 5%), contain between 20% and 60% of the cloud field population, and are randomly located within the scene. In contrast, stratocumulus in almost every respect are more strongly clustered than are cumulus cloud fields. For instance, stratocumulus clusters contain more clouds per cluster, occupy a larger percentage of the total area, and have a larger percentage of clouds participating in clusters than the corresponding cumulus examples. To investigate clustering at intermediate spatial scales, the local dimensionality statistic is introduced. Results obtained from this statistic provide the first direct evidence for regularity among large (>900 m in diameter) clouds in stratocumulus and cumulus cloud fields, in support of the inhibition hypothesis of Ramirez and Bras (1990). Also, the size compensated point-to-cloud cumulative distribution function statistic is found to be necessary to obtain a consistent description of stratocumulus cloud distributions. A hypothesis regarding the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for cloud clustering is presented. It is suggested that cloud clusters often arise from 4 to 10 triggering events localized within regions less than 2 km in diameter and randomly distributed within the cloud field. As the size of the cloud surpasses the scale of the triggering region, the clustering signal weakens and the larger cloud locations become more random.

Clustering, randomness, and regularity in cloud fields. 4: Stratocumulus cloud fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, J.; Chou, J.; Weger, R. C.; Welch, R. M.

1994-01-01

To complete the analysis of the spatial distribution of boundary layer cloudiness, the present study focuses on nine stratocumulus Landsat scenes. The results indicate many similarities between stratocumulus and cumulus spatial distributions. Most notably, at full spatial resolution all scenes exhibit a decidedly clustered distribution. The strength of the clustering signal decreases with increasing cloud size; the clusters themselves consist of a few clouds (less than 10), occupy a small percentage of the cloud field area (less than 5%), contain between 20% and 60% of the cloud field population, and are randomly located within the scene. In contrast, stratocumulus in almost every respect are more strongly clustered than are cumulus cloud fields. For instance, stratocumulus clusters contain more clouds per cluster, occupy a larger percentage of the total area, and have a larger percentage of clouds participating in clusters than the corresponding cumulus examples. To investigate clustering at intermediate spatial scales, the local dimensionality statistic is introduced. Results obtained from this statistic provide the first direct evidence for regularity among large (more than 900 m in diameter) clouds in stratocumulus and cumulus cloud fields, in support of the inhibition hypothesis of Ramirez and Bras (1990). Also, the size compensated point-to-cloud cumulative distribution function statistic is found to be necessary to obtain a consistent description of stratocumulus cloud distributions. A hypothesis regarding the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for cloud clustering is presented. It is suggested that cloud clusters often arise from 4 to 10 triggering events localized within regions less than 2 km in diameter and randomly distributed within the cloud field. As the size of the cloud surpasses the scale of the triggering region, the clustering signal weakens and the larger cloud locations become more random.

The Suzaku View of Highly Ionized Outflows in AGN. 1; Statistical Detection and Global Absorber Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gofford, Jason; Reeves, James N.; Tombesi, Francesco; Braito, Valentina; Turner, T. Jane; Miller, Lance; Cappi, Massimo

2013-01-01

We present the results of a new spectroscopic study of Fe K-band absorption in active galactic nuclei (AGN). Using data obtained from the Suzaku public archive we have performed a statistically driven blind search for Fe XXV Healpha and/or Fe XXVI Lyalpha absorption lines in a large sample of 51 Type 1.0-1.9 AGN. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations we find that statistically significant absorption is detected at E greater than or approximately equal to 6.7 keV in 20/51 sources at the P(sub MC) greater than or equal tov 95 per cent level, which corresponds to approximately 40 per cent of the total sample. In all cases, individual absorption lines are detected independently and simultaneously amongst the two (or three) available X-ray imaging spectrometer detectors, which confirms the robustness of the line detections. The most frequently observed outflow phenomenology consists of two discrete absorption troughs corresponding to Fe XXV Healpha and Fe XXVI Lyalpha at a common velocity shift. From xstar fitting the mean column density and ionization parameter for the Fe K absorption components are log (N(sub H) per square centimeter)) is approximately equal to 23 and log (Xi/erg centimeter per second) is approximately equal to 4.5, respectively. Measured outflow velocities span a continuous range from less than1500 kilometers per second up to approximately100 000 kilometers per second, with mean and median values of approximately 0.1 c and approximately 0.056 c, respectively. The results of this work are consistent with those recently obtained using XMM-Newton and independently provides strong evidence for the existence of very highly ionized circumnuclear material in a significant fraction of both radio-quiet and radio-loud AGN in the local universe.

Do Countries Consistently Engage in Misinforming the International Community about Their Efforts to Combat Money Laundering? Evidence Using Benford’s Law

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, collected by EUROSTAT, are plagued with shortcomings. In this paper, I have carried out a forensic analysis on a 2003–2010 dataset of indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, that European Union member states self-reported to EUROSTAT, and on the basis of which, their efforts were evaluated. I used Benford’s law to detect any anomalous statistical patterns and found that statistical anomalies were also consistent with strategic manipulation. According to Benford’s law, if we pick a random sample of numbers representing natural processes, and look at the distribution of the first digits of these numbers, we see that, contrary to popular belief, digit 1 occurs most often, then digit 2, and so on, with digit 9 occurring in less than 5% of the sample. Without prior knowledge of Benford’s law, since people are not intuitively good at creating truly random numbers, deviations thereof can capture strategic alterations. In order to eliminate other sources of deviation, I have compared deviations in situations where incentives and opportunities for manipulation existed and in situations where they did not. While my results are not a conclusive proof of strategic manipulation, they signal that countries that faced incentives and opportunities to misinform the international community about their efforts to combat money laundering may have manipulated these indicators. Finally, my analysis points to the high potential for disruption that the manipulation of national statistics has, and calls for the acknowledgment that strategic manipulation can be an unintended consequence of the international community’s pressure on countries to put combatting money laundering on the top of their national agenda. PMID:28122058

Do Countries Consistently Engage in Misinforming the International Community about Their Efforts to Combat Money Laundering? Evidence Using Benford's Law.

PubMed

Deleanu, Ioana Sorina

2017-01-01

Indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, collected by EUROSTAT, are plagued with shortcomings. In this paper, I have carried out a forensic analysis on a 2003-2010 dataset of indicators of compliance and efficiency in combatting money laundering, that European Union member states self-reported to EUROSTAT, and on the basis of which, their efforts were evaluated. I used Benford's law to detect any anomalous statistical patterns and found that statistical anomalies were also consistent with strategic manipulation. According to Benford's law, if we pick a random sample of numbers representing natural processes, and look at the distribution of the first digits of these numbers, we see that, contrary to popular belief, digit 1 occurs most often, then digit 2, and so on, with digit 9 occurring in less than 5% of the sample. Without prior knowledge of Benford's law, since people are not intuitively good at creating truly random numbers, deviations thereof can capture strategic alterations. In order to eliminate other sources of deviation, I have compared deviations in situations where incentives and opportunities for manipulation existed and in situations where they did not. While my results are not a conclusive proof of strategic manipulation, they signal that countries that faced incentives and opportunities to misinform the international community about their efforts to combat money laundering may have manipulated these indicators. Finally, my analysis points to the high potential for disruption that the manipulation of national statistics has, and calls for the acknowledgment that strategic manipulation can be an unintended consequence of the international community's pressure on countries to put combatting money laundering on the top of their national agenda.

Creation of a Tool for Assessing Knowledge in Evidence-Based Decision-Making in Practicing Health Care Providers.

PubMed

Spurr, Kathy; Dechman, Gail; Lackie, Kelly; Gilbert, Robert

2016-01-01

Evidence-based decision-making (EBDM) is the process health care providers (HCPs) use to identify and appraise potential evidence. It supports the integration of best research evidence with clinical expertise and patient values into the decision-making process for patient care. Competence in this process is essential to delivery of optimal care. There is no objective tool that assesses EBDM across HCP groups. This research aimed to develop a content valid tool to assess knowledge of the principles of evidence-based medicine and the EBDM process, for use with all HCPs. A Delphi process was used in the creation of the tool. Pilot testing established its content validity with the added benefit of evaluating HCPs' knowledge of EBDM. Descriptive statistics and multivariate mixed models were used to evaluate individual survey responses in total, as well as within each EBDM component. The tool consisted of 26 multiple-choice questions. A total of 12,884 HCPs in Nova Scotia were invited to participate in the web-based validation study, yielding 818 (6.3%) participants, 471 of whom completed all questions. The mean overall score was 68%. Knowledge in one component, integration of evidence with clinical expertise and patient preferences, was identified as needing development across all HCPs surveyed. A content valid tool for assessing HCP EBDM knowledge was created and can be used to support the development of continuing education programs to enhance EBDM competency.

Validity of Cognitive Load Measures in Simulation-Based Training: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Naismith, Laura M; Cavalcanti, Rodrigo B

2015-11-01

Cognitive load theory (CLT) provides a rich framework to inform instructional design. Despite the applicability of CLT to simulation-based medical training, findings from multimedia learning have not been consistently replicated in this context. This lack of transferability may be related to issues in measuring cognitive load (CL) during simulation. The authors conducted a review of CLT studies across simulation training contexts to assess the validity evidence for different CL measures. PRISMA standards were followed. For 48 studies selected from a search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycInfo, CINAHL, and ERIC databases, information was extracted about study aims, methods, validity evidence of measures, and findings. Studies were categorized on the basis of findings and prevalence of validity evidence collected, and statistical comparisons between measurement types and research domains were pursued. CL during simulation training has been measured in diverse populations including medical trainees, pilots, and university students. Most studies (71%; 34) used self-report measures; others included secondary task performance, physiological indices, and observer ratings. Correlations between CL and learning varied from positive to negative. Overall validity evidence for CL measures was low (mean score 1.55/5). Studies reporting greater validity evidence were more likely to report that high CL impaired learning. The authors found evidence that inconsistent correlations between CL and learning may be related to issues of validity in CL measures. Further research would benefit from rigorous documentation of validity and from triangulating measures of CL. This can better inform CLT instructional design for simulation-based medical training.

The Power of 'Evidence': Reliable Science or a Set of Blunt Tools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wrigley, Terry

2018-01-01

In response to the increasing emphasis on 'evidence-based teaching', this article examines the privileging of randomised controlled trials and their statistical synthesis (meta-analysis). It also pays particular attention to two third-level statistical syntheses: John Hattie's "Visible learning" project and the EEF's "Teaching and…

Can Being Scared Cause Tummy Aches? Naive Theories, Ambiguous Evidence, and Preschoolers' Causal Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Laura E.; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2007-01-01

Causal learning requires integrating constraints provided by domain-specific theories with domain-general statistical learning. In order to investigate the interaction between these factors, the authors presented preschoolers with stories pitting their existing theories against statistical evidence. Each child heard 2 stories in which 2 candidate…

Coupling Changing Student Demographics with Evidence-Based Leadership Practices: Leading Hispanic Friendly Learning Organizations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farmer, Tod Allen

2012-01-01

The study assessed the need for learning organizations to implement evidence-based policies and practices designed to enhance the academic and social success of Hispanic learners. Descriptive statistics and longitudinal data from the National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES) and the National Clearinghouse for English Language Acquisition…

Partial wave analysis of the reaction γ p → p ω and the search for nucleon resonances

DOE PAGES

Williams, M.; Applegate, D.; Bellis, M.; ...

2009-12-30

We performed an event-based partial wave analysis (PWA) of the reaction γ p -> p ω on a high-statistics dataset obtained using the CLAS at Jefferson Lab for center-of-mass energies from threshold up to 2.4 GeV. This analysis benefits from access to the world's first high precision spin density matrix element measurements, available to the event-based PWA through the decay distribution of omega-> π + π - π 0. The data confirm the dominance of the t-channel π 0 exchange amplitude in the forward direction. The dominant resonance contributions are consistent with the previously identified states F[15](1680) and D[13](1700)more » near threshold, as well as the G[17](2190) at higher energies. Suggestive evidence for the presence of a J(P)=5/2 + state around 2 GeV, a "missing" state, has also been found. Evidence for other states is inconclusive.« less

Hypersensitivity to sound in tinnitus patients: an analysis of a construct based on questionnaire and audiological data.

PubMed

Bläsing, Lena; Goebel, Gerhard; Flötzinger, Uta; Berthold, Anke; Kröner-Herwig, Birgit

2010-07-01

The purpose of this study was to analyse the Questionnaire on Hypersensitivity to Sound (GUF; Nelting & Finlayson, 2004 ) and to improve its validity based on the analysis of intercorrelations (single item level) with other methods of assessing hyperacusis (uncomfortable loudness level, individual loudness function, self-rated severity of hyperacusis). Subjects consisted of 91 inpatients with tinnitus and hyperacusis. The GUF showed a good reliability (alpha = .92). The factorial structure of the questionnaire reported by Nelting et al (2002) was not completely supported by the evidence in this study. The total score and the single items showed small to moderate correlations with the other modes of measuring hyperacusis. Evidence for convergent and discriminant validity were found, but overall the results corroborate the conceptual heterogeneity of the construct hyperacusis and its dependency on the assessment method. Four items of the GUF with particularly low correlations were excluded from the questionnaire. The revised GUF total score showed slightly but not statistically significant higher convergent and discriminant validity.

Unreliable evoked responses in autism

PubMed Central

Dinstein, Ilan; Heeger, David J.; Lorenzi, Lauren; Minshew, Nancy J.; Malach, Rafael; Behrmann, Marlene

2012-01-01

Summary Autism has been described as a disorder of general neural processing, but the particular processing characteristics that might be abnormal in autism have mostly remained obscure. Here, we present evidence of one such characteristic: poor evoked response reliability. We compared cortical response amplitude and reliability (consistency across trials) in visual, auditory, and somatosensory cortices of high-functioning individuals with autism and controls. Mean response amplitudes were statistically indistinguishable across groups, yet trial-by-trial response reliability was significantly weaker in autism, yielding smaller signal-to-noise ratios in all sensory systems. Response reliability differences were evident only in evoked cortical responses and not in ongoing resting-state activity. These findings reveal that abnormally unreliable cortical responses, even to elementary non-social sensory stimuli, may represent a fundamental physiological alteration of neural processing in autism. The results motivate a critical expansion of autism research to determine whether (and how) basic neural processing properties such as reliability, plasticity, and adaptation/habituation are altered in autism. PMID:22998867

A cold-wet middle-latitude environment on Mars during the Hesperian-Amazonian transition: Evidence from northern Arabia valleys and paleolakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Sharon A.; Howard, Alan D.; Moore, Jeffrey M.; Grant, John A.

2016-09-01

The growing inventory of post-Noachian fluvial valleys may represent a late, widespread episode of aqueous activity on Mars, contrary to the paradigm that fluvial activity largely ceased around the Noachian-Hesperian boundary. Fresh shallow valleys (FSVs) are widespread from ~30 to 45° in both hemispheres with a high concentration in northern Arabia Terra. Valleys in northern Arabia Terra characteristically start abruptly on steeper slopes and terminate in topographic depressions at elevations corresponding to model-predicted lake levels. Longer valley systems flowed into and out of chains of paleolakes. Minimum discharges based on the dimensions of the incised channel assuming medium to coarse sand-size grains ranges from tens to hundreds of m3 s-1, respectively, consistent with formation via snowmelt from surface or sub-ice flows. Hydrologic calculations indicate the valleys likely formed in hundreds of years or less, and crater statistics constrain the timing of fluvial activity to between the Hesperian and middle Amazonian. Several craters with channels extending radially outward supports evidence for overflow of interior crater lakes possibly fed by groundwater. Most FSVs occur away from young impact craters which make an association with impact processes improbable. The widespread occurrence of FSVs along with their similar morphology and shared modest state of degradation is consistent with most forming during a global interval of favorable climate, perhaps contemporaneous with alluvial fan formation in equatorial and midlatitudes. Evidence for a snowmelt-based hydrology and considerable depths of water on the landscape in Arabia supports a cold, wet, and possibly habitable environment late in Martian history.

New evidence for hybrid zones of forest and savanna elephants in Central and West Africa.

PubMed

Mondol, Samrat; Moltke, Ida; Hart, John; Keigwin, Michael; Brown, Lisa; Stephens, Matthew; Wasser, Samuel K

2015-12-01

The African elephant consists of forest and savanna subspecies. Both subspecies are highly endangered due to severe poaching and habitat loss, and knowledge of their population structure is vital to their conservation. Previous studies have demonstrated marked genetic and morphological differences between forest and savanna elephants, and despite extensive sampling, genetic evidence of hybridization between them has been restricted largely to a few hybrids in the Garamba region of northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Here, we present new genetic data on hybridization from previously unsampled areas of Africa. Novel statistical methods applied to these data identify 46 hybrid samples--many more than have been previously identified--only two of which are from the Garamba region. The remaining 44 are from three other geographically distinct locations: a major hybrid zone along the border of the DRC and Uganda, a second potential hybrid zone in Central African Republic and a smaller fraction of hybrids in the Pendjari-Arli complex of West Africa. Most of the hybrids show evidence of interbreeding over more than one generation, demonstrating that hybrids are fertile. Mitochondrial and Y chromosome data demonstrate that the hybridization is bidirectional, involving males and females from both subspecies. We hypothesize that the hybrid zones may have been facilitated by poaching and habitat modification. The localized geography and rarity of hybrid zones, their possible facilitation from human pressures, and the high divergence and genetic distinctness of forest and savanna elephants throughout their ranges, are consistent with calls for separate species classification. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of the quality of reporting in abstracts of systematic reviews with meta-analyses in periodontology and implant dentistry.

PubMed

Faggion, C M; Liu, J; Huda, F; Atieh, M

2014-04-01

Proper scientific reporting is necessary to ensure the correct interpretation of study results by readers. The main objective of this study was to assess the quality of reporting in abstracts of systematic reviews (SRs) with meta-analyses in periodontology and implant dentistry. Differences in reporting of abstracts in Cochrane and paper-based reviews were also assessed. The PubMed electronic database and the Cochrane database for SRs were searched on November 11, 2012, independently and in duplicate, for SRs with meta-analyses related to interventions in periodontology and implant dentistry. Assessment of the quality of reporting was performed independently and in duplicate, taking into account items related to the effect direction, numerical estimates of effect size, measures of precision, probability and consistency. We initially screened 433 papers and included 146 (127 paper-based and 19 Cochrane reviews, respectively). The direction of evidence was reported in two-thirds of the abstracts while strength of evidence and measure of precision (i.e., confidence interval) were reported in less than half the selected abstracts. Measures of consistency such as I(2) statistics were reported in only 5% of the selected sample of abstracts. Cochrane abstracts reported the limitations of evidence and precision better than paper-based ones. Two items ("meta-analysis" in title and abstract, respectively), were nevertheless better reported in paper-based abstracts. Abstracts of SRs with meta-analyses in periodontology and implant dentistry currently have no uniform standard of reporting, which may hinder readers' understanding of study outcomes. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Truth, Damn Truth, and Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velleman, Paul F.

2008-01-01

Statisticians and Statistics teachers often have to push back against the popular impression that Statistics teaches how to lie with data. Those who believe incorrectly that Statistics is solely a branch of Mathematics (and thus algorithmic), often see the use of judgment in Statistics as evidence that we do indeed manipulate our results. In the…

One Yard Below: Education Statistics from a Different Angle.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Education Intelligence Agency, Carmichael, CA.

This report offers a different perspective on education statistics by highlighting rarely used "stand-alone" statistics on public education, inputs, outputs, and descriptions, and it uses interactive statistics that combine two or more statistics in an unusual way. It is a report that presents much evidence, but few conclusions. It is not intended…

The Effect of a Student-Designed Data Collection: Project on Attitudes toward Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnell, Lisa J.

2008-01-01

Students often enter an introductory statistics class with less than positive attitudes about the subject. They tend to believe statistics is difficult and irrelevant to their lives. Observational evidence from previous studies suggests including projects in a statistics course may enhance students' attitudes toward statistics. This study examines…

Meta-analysis of functional brain imaging in specific phobia.

PubMed

Ipser, Jonathan C; Singh, Leesha; Stein, Dan J

2013-07-01

Although specific phobia is a prevalent anxiety disorder, evidence regarding its underlying functional neuroanatomy is inconsistent. A meta-analysis was undertaken to identify brain regions that were consistently responsive to phobic stimuli, and to characterize changes in brain activation following cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). We searched the PubMed, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases to identify positron emission tomography and functional magnetic resonance imaging studies comparing brain activation in specific phobia patients and healthy controls. Two raters independently extracted study data from all the eligible studies, and pooled coordinates from these studies using activation likelihood estimation, a quantitative meta-analytic technique. Resulting statistical parametric maps were compared between patients and healthy controls, in response to phobic versus fear-evoking stimuli, and before and after therapy. Thirteen studies were included, comprising 327 participants. Regions that were consistently activated in response to phobic stimuli included the left insula, amygdala, and globus pallidus. Compared to healthy controls, phobic subjects had increased activation in response to phobic stimuli in the left amygdala/globus pallidus, left insula, right thalamus (pulvinar), and cerebellum. Following exposure-based therapy widespread deactivation was observed in the right frontal cortex, limbic cortex, basal ganglia and cerebellum, with increased activation detected in the thalamus. Exposure to phobia-specific stimuli elicits brain activation that is consistent with current understandings of the neuroanatomy of fear conditioning and extinction. There is evidence that the effects of CBT in specific phobia may be mediated through the same underlying neurocircuitry. © 2013 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2013 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Integrated cosmological probes: concordance quantified

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nicola, Andrina; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre, E-mail: andrina.nicola@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: adam.amara@phys.ethz.ch, E-mail: alexandre.refregier@phys.ethz.ch

2017-10-01

Assessing the consistency of parameter constraints derived from different cosmological probes is an important way to test the validity of the underlying cosmological model. In an earlier work [1], we computed constraints on cosmological parameters for ΛCDM from an integrated analysis of CMB temperature anisotropies and CMB lensing from Planck, galaxy clustering and weak lensing from SDSS, weak lensing from DES SV as well as Type Ia supernovae and Hubble parameter measurements. In this work, we extend this analysis and quantify the concordance between the derived constraints and those derived by the Planck Collaboration as well as WMAP9, SPT andmore » ACT. As a measure for consistency, we use the Surprise statistic [2], which is based on the relative entropy. In the framework of a flat ΛCDM cosmological model, we find all data sets to be consistent with one another at a level of less than 1σ. We highlight that the relative entropy is sensitive to inconsistencies in the models that are used in different parts of the analysis. In particular, inconsistent assumptions for the neutrino mass break its invariance on the parameter choice. When consistent model assumptions are used, the data sets considered in this work all agree with each other and ΛCDM, without evidence for tensions.« less

A psychometric analysis of the reading the mind in the eyes test: toward a brief form for research and applied settings

PubMed Central

Olderbak, Sally; Wilhelm, Oliver; Olaru, Gabriel; Geiger, Mattis; Brenneman, Meghan W.; Roberts, Richard D.

2015-01-01

The Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test is a popular measure of individual differences in Theory of Mind that is often applied in the assessment of particular clinical populations (primarily, individuals on the autism spectrum). However, little is known about the test's psychometric properties, including factor structure, internal consistency, and convergent validity evidence. We present a psychometric analysis of the test followed by an evaluation of other empirically proposed and statistically identified structures. We identified, and cross-validated in a second sample, an adequate short-form solution that is homogeneous with adequate internal consistency, and is moderately related to Cognitive Empathy, Emotion Perception, and strongly related to Vocabulary. We recommend the use of this short-form solution in normal adults as a more precise measure over the original version. Future revisions of the test should seek to reduce the test's reliance on one's vocabulary and evaluate the short-form structure in clinical populations. PMID:26500578

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

2016-07-19

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks'. © 2016 The Authors.

Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

2016-01-01

Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’. PMID:27325827

Efficacy of Nonsteroidal Anti-inflammatory Drug Prophylaxis for Heterotrophic Ossification in Hip Arthroscopy: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Yeung, Marco; Jamshidi, Sahab; Horner, Nolan; Simunovic, Nicole; Karlsson, Jon; Ayeni, Olufemi R

2016-03-01

The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate the efficacy of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) prophylaxis for preventing heterotopic ossification (HO) in the setting of hip arthroscopy. A systematic search was performed in duplicate for studies comparing the use of NSAID prophylaxis for HO in the setting of hip arthroscopy until March 2015. Study parameters--including sample size, incidence of HO, adverse effects, and level of symptoms--were obtained. Furthermore, the level of evidence of studies was collected and quality assessment was performed. The difference in incidence as well as pooled odds ratios were calculated and analyzed to compare no prophylaxis versus NSAID prophylaxis. This systematic review identified 5 studies, consisting of 1,662 patients, investigating NSAID prophylaxis in hip arthroscopy. HO was diagnosed with the use of postoperative hip radiographs at follow-up, with 95% of cases classified using the Brooker classification. The incidence of HO was 13.4% without NSAID prophylaxis and 3.3% with NSAID prophylaxis. Pooled odds ratios from the prospective studies were 0.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.02 to 0.28; P = .0002; I(2) = 0%), showing with statistical significance that NSAID prophylaxis decreased the incidence of HO. The retrospective data similarly showed pooled odds ratios of 0.03 (95% CI, 0.00 to 1.43); P = .08; I(2) = 84%), although it was not statistically significant. Most of the patients who experienced HO in both groups were not reported to be symptomatic. Adverse effects and compliance were not consistently reported. The available orthopaedic literature suggests that the incidence of postoperative HO may be decreased with the use of NSAID prophylaxis in hip arthroscopy. However, the evidence is unclear regarding NSAID drug regimen choice, drug compliance, and adverse effects. Level III, systematic review of Level I, Level II, and Level III studies. Copyright © 2016 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Beyond imperviousness: A statistical approach to identifying functional differences between development morphologies on variable source area-type response in urbanized watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, T. C.

2016-12-01

Empirical evidence has shown linkages between urbanization, hydrological regime change, and degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat. Percent imperviousness, has long been suggested as the dominant source of these negative changes. However, recent research identifying alternative pathways of runoff production at the watershed scale have called into question percent impervious surface area's primacy in urban runoff production compared to other aspects of urbanization including change in vegetative cover, imported water and water leakages, and the presence of drainage infrastructure. In this research I show how a robust statistical methodology can detect evidence of variable source area (VSA)-type hydrologic response associated with incremental hydraulic connectivity in watersheds. I then use logistic regression to explore how evidence of VSA-type response relates to the physical and meterological characteristics of the watershed. I find that impervious surface area is highly correlated with development, but does not add significant explanatory power beyond percent developed in predicting VSA-type response. Other aspects of development morphology, including percent developed open space and type of drainage infrastructure also do not add to the explanatory power of undeveloped land in predicting VSA-type response. Within only developed areas, the effect of developed open space was found to be more similar to that of total impervious area than to undeveloped land. These findings were consistent when tested across a national cross-section of urbanized watersheds, a higher resolution dataset of Baltimore Metropolitan Area watersheds, and a subsample of watersheds confirmed not to be served by combined sewer systems. These findings suggest that land development policies that focus on lot coverage should be revisited, and more focus should be placed on preserving native vegetation and soil conditions alongside development.

Automating Electronic Clinical Data Capture for Quality Improvement and Research: The CERTAIN Validation Project of Real World Evidence.

PubMed

Devine, Emily Beth; Van Eaton, Erik; Zadworny, Megan E; Symons, Rebecca; Devlin, Allison; Yanez, David; Yetisgen, Meliha; Keyloun, Katelyn R; Capurro, Daniel; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Flum, David R; Tarczy-Hornoch, Peter

2018-05-22

The availability of high fidelity electronic health record (EHR) data is a hallmark of the learning health care system. Washington State's Surgical Care Outcomes and Assessment Program (SCOAP) is a network of hospitals participating in quality improvement (QI) registries wherein data are manually abstracted from EHRs. To create the Comparative Effectiveness Research and Translation Network (CERTAIN), we semi-automated SCOAP data abstraction using a centralized federated data model, created a central data repository (CDR), and assessed whether these data could be used as real world evidence for QI and research. Describe the validation processes and complexities involved and lessons learned. Investigators installed a commercial CDR to retrieve and store data from disparate EHRs. Manual and automated abstraction systems were conducted in parallel (10/2012-7/2013) and validated in three phases using the EHR as the gold standard: 1) ingestion, 2) standardization, and 3) concordance of automated versus manually abstracted cases. Information retrieval statistics were calculated. Four unaffiliated health systems provided data. Between 6 and 15 percent of data elements were abstracted: 51 to 86 percent from structured data; the remainder using natural language processing (NLP). In phase 1, data ingestion from 12 out of 20 feeds reached 95 percent accuracy. In phase 2, 55 percent of structured data elements performed with 96 to 100 percent accuracy; NLP with 89 to 91 percent accuracy. In phase 3, concordance ranged from 69 to 89 percent. Information retrieval statistics were consistently above 90 percent. Semi-automated data abstraction may be useful, although raw data collected as a byproduct of health care delivery is not immediately available for use as real world evidence. New approaches to gathering and analyzing extant data are required.

Source credibility and evidence format: examining the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS messages for young African Americans.

PubMed

Major, Lesa Hatley; Coleman, Renita

2012-01-01

Using experimental methodology, this study tests the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS prevention messages tailored specifically to college-aged African Americans. To test interaction effects, it intersects source role and evidence format. The authors used gain-framed and loss-framed information specific to young African Americans and HIV to test message effectiveness between statistical and emotional evidence formats, and for the first time, a statistical/emotional combination format. It tests which source--physician or minister--that young African Americans believe is more effective when delivering HIV/AIDS messages to young African Americans. By testing the interaction between source credibility and evidence format, this research expands knowledge on creating effective health messages in several major areas. Findings include a significant interaction between the role of physician and the combined statistical/emotional format. This message was rated as the most effective way to deliver HIV/AIDS prevention messages.

Norming a VALUE rubric to assess graduate information literacy skills.

PubMed

Turbow, David J; Evener, Julie

2016-07-01

The study evaluated whether a modified version of the information literacy Valid Assessment of Learning in Undergraduate Education (VALUE) rubric would be useful for assessing the information literacy skills of graduate health sciences students. Through facilitated calibration workshops, an interdepartmental six-person team of librarians and faculty engaged in guided discussion about the meaning of the rubric criteria. They applied the rubric to score student work for a peer-review essay assignment in the "Information Literacy for Evidence-Based Practice" course. To determine inter-rater reliability, the raters participated in a follow-up exercise in which they independently applied the rubric to ten samples of work from a research project in the doctor of physical therapy program: the patient case report assignment. For the peer-review essay, a high level of consistency in scoring was achieved for the second workshop, with statistically significant intra-class correlation coefficients above 0.8 for 3 criteria: "Determine the extent of evidence needed," "Use evidence effectively to accomplish a specific purpose," and "Access the needed evidence." Participants concurred that the essay prompt and rubric criteria adequately discriminated the quality of student work for the peer-review essay assignment. When raters independently scored the patient case report assignment, inter-rater agreement was low and statistically insignificant for all rubric criteria (kappa=-0.16, p>0.05-kappa=0.12, p>0.05). While the peer-review essay assignment lent itself well to rubric calibration, scorers had a difficult time with the patient case report. Lack of familiarity among some raters with the specifics of the patient case report assignment and subject matter might have accounted for low inter-rater reliability. When norming, it is important to hold conversations about search strategies and expectations of performance. Overall, the authors found the rubric to be appropriate for assessing information literacy skills of graduate health sciences students.

Norming a VALUE rubric to assess graduate information literacy skills

PubMed Central

Turbow, David J.; Evener, Julie

2016-01-01

Objective The study evaluated whether a modified version of the information literacy Valid Assessment of Learning in Undergraduate Education (VALUE) rubric would be useful for assessing the information literacy skills of graduate health sciences students. Methods Through facilitated calibration workshops, an interdepartmental six-person team of librarians and faculty engaged in guided discussion about the meaning of the rubric criteria. They applied the rubric to score student work for a peer-review essay assignment in the “Information Literacy for Evidence-Based Practice” course. To determine inter-rater reliability, the raters participated in a follow-up exercise in which they independently applied the rubric to ten samples of work from a research project in the doctor of physical therapy program: the patient case report assignment. Results For the peer-review essay, a high level of consistency in scoring was achieved for the second workshop, with statistically significant intra-class correlation coefficients above 0.8 for 3 criteria: “Determine the extent of evidence needed,” “Use evidence effectively to accomplish a specific purpose,” and “Access the needed evidence.” Participants concurred that the essay prompt and rubric criteria adequately discriminated the quality of student work for the peer-review essay assignment. When raters independently scored the patient case report assignment, inter-rater agreement was low and statistically insignificant for all rubric criteria (kappa=−0.16, p>0.05–kappa=0.12, p>0.05). Conclusions While the peer-review essay assignment lent itself well to rubric calibration, scorers had a difficult time with the patient case report. Lack of familiarity among some raters with the specifics of the patient case report assignment and subject matter might have accounted for low inter-rater reliability. When norming, it is important to hold conversations about search strategies and expectations of performance. Overall, the authors found the rubric to be appropriate for assessing information literacy skills of graduate health sciences students. PMID:27366121

Bayesian Model Selection under Time Constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoege, M.; Nowak, W.; Illman, W. A.

2017-12-01

Bayesian model selection (BMS) provides a consistent framework for rating and comparing models in multi-model inference. In cases where models of vastly different complexity compete with each other, we also face vastly different computational runtimes of such models. For instance, time series of a quantity of interest can be simulated by an autoregressive process model that takes even less than a second for one run, or by a partial differential equations-based model with runtimes up to several hours or even days. The classical BMS is based on a quantity called Bayesian model evidence (BME). It determines the model weights in the selection process and resembles a trade-off between bias of a model and its complexity. However, in practice, the runtime of models is another weight relevant factor for model selection. Hence, we believe that it should be included, leading to an overall trade-off problem between bias, variance and computing effort. We approach this triple trade-off from the viewpoint of our ability to generate realizations of the models under a given computational budget. One way to obtain BME values is through sampling-based integration techniques. We argue with the fact that more expensive models can be sampled much less under time constraints than faster models (in straight proportion to their runtime). The computed evidence in favor of a more expensive model is statistically less significant than the evidence computed in favor of a faster model, since sampling-based strategies are always subject to statistical sampling error. We present a straightforward way to include this misbalance into the model weights that are the basis for model selection. Our approach follows directly from the idea of insufficient significance. It is based on a computationally cheap bootstrapping error estimate of model evidence and is easy to implement. The approach is illustrated in a small synthetic modeling study.

Effect of evidence-based approach on the customer orientation (Case study: Physicians Health Centers in Isfahan province in 2014)

PubMed Central

Esfahani, NG; Maharati, Y

2015-01-01

Introduction: The purpose of this research was to examine the approach, based on evidence to customer-orientation attending physicians in the region, them being the subject collection. Research method: This is a definitive-analytic and cross-sectional configuration, which was completed in 2014. The statistical community in this research consists of 212 doctors in the healthcare hubs. The working physicians chose 200 patients by means of a simple accidental sampling. The analysis means was the researcher built survey whose efficacy and reliability were verified. In this research, the fundamental equation design and partial least square technique were applied to examine the presumptions and fitness pattern and the structural design was agreed as adequate. Findings: The outcomes showed four cases linked to the character, a behavior which was meant to treat; traditional origins of evidence were employed to retrieve data based on the reliable evidence and the shortage of limitations to the performance of client orientation strategy of evidence-based influences were meaningful. Two ranges of the doctor's information, the absence of restrictions, and the finding of the sign of dimensions about the client orientation approach were according to the evidence that had no meaningful influence. Conclusion: The utilization of evidence-based training not only increased awareness, character, and abilities of the doctors but also allowed them to answer to the requirements of clients in choosing excellent decisions and presenting a better quality of healthcare, by decreasing treatment prices for patients, bringing satisfaction of patients, and finally having a better effectiveness for patients and institutions. PMID:28316691

Effect of evidence-based approach on the customer orientation (Case study: Physicians Health Centers in Isfahan province in 2014).

PubMed

Esfahani, N G; Maharati, Y

2015-01-01

Introduction: The purpose of this research was to examine the approach, based on evidence to customer-orientation attending physicians in the region, them being the subject collection. Research method: This is a definitive-analytic and cross-sectional configuration, which was completed in 2014. The statistical community in this research consists of 212 doctors in the healthcare hubs. The working physicians chose 200 patients by means of a simple accidental sampling. The analysis means was the researcher built survey whose efficacy and reliability were verified. In this research, the fundamental equation design and partial least square technique were applied to examine the presumptions and fitness pattern and the structural design was agreed as adequate. Findings: The outcomes showed four cases linked to the character, a behavior which was meant to treat; traditional origins of evidence were employed to retrieve data based on the reliable evidence and the shortage of limitations to the performance of client orientation strategy of evidence-based influences were meaningful. Two ranges of the doctor's information, the absence of restrictions, and the finding of the sign of dimensions about the client orientation approach were according to the evidence that had no meaningful influence. Conclusion: The utilization of evidence-based training not only increased awareness, character, and abilities of the doctors but also allowed them to answer to the requirements of clients in choosing excellent decisions and presenting a better quality of healthcare, by decreasing treatment prices for patients, bringing satisfaction of patients, and finally having a better effectiveness for patients and institutions.

Observation of Majorana fermions in the vortex on topological insulator-superconductor heterostructure Bi2Te3/NbSe2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Jinfeng

Majorana fermion (MF) zero modes have been predicted in a wide variety of condensed matter systems and proposed as a potential building block for fault-tolerant quantum computer. Signatures of the MFs have been reported in the form of zero-energy conductance peak in various systems. As predicted, MFs appear as zero-energy vortex core modes with distinctive spatial profile in proximity-induced superconducting surface states of topological insulators. Furthermore, MFs can induce spin selective Andreev reflection (SSAR), a unique signature of MFs. We report the observation of all the three features for the MFs inside vortices in Bi2Te3/NbSe2 hetero-structure, in which proximity-induced superconducting gap on topological surface states was previously established. Especially, by using spin-polarized scanning tunneling microscopy/spectroscopy (STM/STS), we observed the spin dependent tunneling effect, and fully supported by theoretical analyses, which is a direct evidence for the SSAR from MFs. More importantly, all evidences are self-consistent. Our work provides definitive evidences of MFs and will stimulate the MFs research on their novel physical properties, hence a step towards their non-Abelian statistics and application in quantum computing.

Non-Earth-centric life detection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conrad, P. G.; Nealson, K. H.

2000-01-01

Our hope is that life will, bit by bit, reveal the clues that will allow us to piece together enough evidence to recognize it whenever and however it presents itself. Indisputable evidence is measurable, statistically meaningful and independent of the nature of the life it defines. That the evidence for life be measurable is a fundamental requirement of the scientific method, as is the requirement for statistical significance, and this quantitation is what enables us to differentiate the measurable criteria of candidate biosignatures from a background (host environment).

Inclusion probability for DNA mixtures is a subjective one-sided match statistic unrelated to identification information

PubMed Central

Perlin, Mark William

2015-01-01

Background: DNA mixtures of two or more people are a common type of forensic crime scene evidence. A match statistic that connects the evidence to a criminal defendant is usually needed for court. Jurors rely on this strength of match to help decide guilt or innocence. However, the reliability of unsophisticated match statistics for DNA mixtures has been questioned. Materials and Methods: The most prevalent match statistic for DNA mixtures is the combined probability of inclusion (CPI), used by crime labs for over 15 years. When testing 13 short tandem repeat (STR) genetic loci, the CPI-1 value is typically around a million, regardless of DNA mixture composition. However, actual identification information, as measured by a likelihood ratio (LR), spans a much broader range. This study examined probability of inclusion (PI) mixture statistics for 517 locus experiments drawn from 16 reported cases and compared them with LR locus information calculated independently on the same data. The log(PI-1) values were examined and compared with corresponding log(LR) values. Results: The LR and CPI methods were compared in case examples of false inclusion, false exclusion, a homicide, and criminal justice outcomes. Statistical analysis of crime laboratory STR data shows that inclusion match statistics exhibit a truncated normal distribution having zero center, with little correlation to actual identification information. By the law of large numbers (LLN), CPI-1 increases with the number of tested genetic loci, regardless of DNA mixture composition or match information. These statistical findings explain why CPI is relatively constant, with implications for DNA policy, criminal justice, cost of crime, and crime prevention. Conclusions: Forensic crime laboratories have generated CPI statistics on hundreds of thousands of DNA mixture evidence items. However, this commonly used match statistic behaves like a random generator of inclusionary values, following the LLN rather than measuring identification information. A quantitative CPI number adds little meaningful information beyond the analyst's initial qualitative assessment that a person's DNA is included in a mixture. Statistical methods for reporting on DNA mixture evidence should be scientifically validated before they are relied upon by criminal justice. PMID:26605124

Inclusion probability for DNA mixtures is a subjective one-sided match statistic unrelated to identification information.

PubMed

Perlin, Mark William

2015-01-01

DNA mixtures of two or more people are a common type of forensic crime scene evidence. A match statistic that connects the evidence to a criminal defendant is usually needed for court. Jurors rely on this strength of match to help decide guilt or innocence. However, the reliability of unsophisticated match statistics for DNA mixtures has been questioned. The most prevalent match statistic for DNA mixtures is the combined probability of inclusion (CPI), used by crime labs for over 15 years. When testing 13 short tandem repeat (STR) genetic loci, the CPI(-1) value is typically around a million, regardless of DNA mixture composition. However, actual identification information, as measured by a likelihood ratio (LR), spans a much broader range. This study examined probability of inclusion (PI) mixture statistics for 517 locus experiments drawn from 16 reported cases and compared them with LR locus information calculated independently on the same data. The log(PI(-1)) values were examined and compared with corresponding log(LR) values. The LR and CPI methods were compared in case examples of false inclusion, false exclusion, a homicide, and criminal justice outcomes. Statistical analysis of crime laboratory STR data shows that inclusion match statistics exhibit a truncated normal distribution having zero center, with little correlation to actual identification information. By the law of large numbers (LLN), CPI(-1) increases with the number of tested genetic loci, regardless of DNA mixture composition or match information. These statistical findings explain why CPI is relatively constant, with implications for DNA policy, criminal justice, cost of crime, and crime prevention. Forensic crime laboratories have generated CPI statistics on hundreds of thousands of DNA mixture evidence items. However, this commonly used match statistic behaves like a random generator of inclusionary values, following the LLN rather than measuring identification information. A quantitative CPI number adds little meaningful information beyond the analyst's initial qualitative assessment that a person's DNA is included in a mixture. Statistical methods for reporting on DNA mixture evidence should be scientifically validated before they are relied upon by criminal justice.

Dynamic Encoding of Speech Sequence Probability in Human Temporal Cortex

PubMed Central

Leonard, Matthew K.; Bouchard, Kristofer E.; Tang, Claire

2015-01-01

Sensory processing involves identification of stimulus features, but also integration with the surrounding sensory and cognitive context. Previous work in animals and humans has shown fine-scale sensitivity to context in the form of learned knowledge about the statistics of the sensory environment, including relative probabilities of discrete units in a stream of sequential auditory input. These statistics are a defining characteristic of one of the most important sequential signals humans encounter: speech. For speech, extensive exposure to a language tunes listeners to the statistics of sound sequences. To address how speech sequence statistics are neurally encoded, we used high-resolution direct cortical recordings from human lateral superior temporal cortex as subjects listened to words and nonwords with varying transition probabilities between sound segments. In addition to their sensitivity to acoustic features (including contextual features, such as coarticulation), we found that neural responses dynamically encoded the language-level probability of both preceding and upcoming speech sounds. Transition probability first negatively modulated neural responses, followed by positive modulation of neural responses, consistent with coordinated predictive and retrospective recognition processes, respectively. Furthermore, transition probability encoding was different for real English words compared with nonwords, providing evidence for online interactions with high-order linguistic knowledge. These results demonstrate that sensory processing of deeply learned stimuli involves integrating physical stimulus features with their contextual sequential structure. Despite not being consciously aware of phoneme sequence statistics, listeners use this information to process spoken input and to link low-level acoustic representations with linguistic information about word identity and meaning. PMID:25948269

Quantification of heterogeneity observed in medical images.

PubMed

Brooks, Frank J; Grigsby, Perry W

2013-03-02

There has been much recent interest in the quantification of visually evident heterogeneity within functional grayscale medical images, such as those obtained via magnetic resonance or positron emission tomography. In the case of images of cancerous tumors, variations in grayscale intensity imply variations in crucial tumor biology. Despite these considerable clinical implications, there is as yet no standardized method for measuring the heterogeneity observed via these imaging modalities. In this work, we motivate and derive a statistical measure of image heterogeneity. This statistic measures the distance-dependent average deviation from the smoothest intensity gradation feasible. We show how this statistic may be used to automatically rank images of in vivo human tumors in order of increasing heterogeneity. We test this method against the current practice of ranking images via expert visual inspection. We find that this statistic provides a means of heterogeneity quantification beyond that given by other statistics traditionally used for the same purpose. We demonstrate the effect of tumor shape upon our ranking method and find the method applicable to a wide variety of clinically relevant tumor images. We find that the automated heterogeneity rankings agree very closely with those performed visually by experts. These results indicate that our automated method may be used reliably to rank, in order of increasing heterogeneity, tumor images whether or not object shape is considered to contribute to that heterogeneity. Automated heterogeneity ranking yields objective results which are more consistent than visual rankings. Reducing variability in image interpretation will enable more researchers to better study potential clinical implications of observed tumor heterogeneity.

Risk Comprehension and Judgments of Statistical Evidentiary Appeals: When a Picture Is Not Worth a Thousand Words

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parrott, Roxanne; Silk, Kami; Dorgan, Kelly; Condit, Celeste; Harris, Tina

2005-01-01

Too little theory and research has considered the effects of communicating statistics in various forms on comprehension, perceptions of evidence quality, or evaluations of message persuasiveness. In a considered extension of Subjective Message Construct Theory (Morley, 1987), we advance a rationale relating evidence form to the formation of…

Consistency of response and image recognition, pulmonary nodules

PubMed Central

Liu, M A Q; Galvan, E; Bassett, R; Murphy, W A; Matamoros, A; Marom, E M

2014-01-01

Objective: To investigate the effect of recognition of a previously encountered radiograph on consistency of response in localized pulmonary nodules. Methods: 13 radiologists interpreted 40 radiographs each to locate pulmonary nodules. A few days later, they again interpreted 40 radiographs. Half of the images in the second set were new. We asked the radiologists whether each image had been in the first set. We used Fisher's exact test and Kruskal–Wallis test to evaluate the correlation between recognition of an image and consistency in its interpretation. We evaluated the data using all possible recognition levels—definitely, probably or possibly included vs definitely, probably or possibly not included by collapsing the recognition levels into two and by eliminating the “possibly included” and “possibly not included” scores. Results: With all but one of six methods of looking at the data, there was no significant correlation between consistency in interpretation and recognition of the image. When the possibly included and possibly not included scores were eliminated, there was a borderline statistical significance (p = 0.04) with slightly greater consistency in interpretation of recognized than that of non-recognized images. Conclusion: We found no convincing evidence that radiologists' recognition of images in an observer performance study affects their interpretation on a second encounter. Advances in knowledge: Conscious recognition of chest radiographs did not result in a greater degree of consistency in the tested interpretation than that in the interpretation of images that were not recognized. PMID:24697724

Gestational surrogacy: Viewpoint of Iranian infertile women

PubMed Central

Rahmani, Azad; Sattarzadeh, Nilofar; Gholizadeh, Leila; Sheikhalipour, Zahra; Allahbakhshian, Atefeh; Hassankhani, Hadi

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Surrogacy is a popular form of assisted reproductive technology of which only gestational form is approved by most of the religious scholars in Iran. Little evidence exists about the Iranian infertile women's viewpoint regarding gestational surrogacy. AIM: To assess the viewpoint of Iranian infertile women toward gestational surrogacy. SETTING AND DESIGN: This descriptive study was conducted at the infertility clinic of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study sample consisted of 238 infertile women who were selected using the eligible sampling method. Data were collected by using a researcher developed questionnaire that included 25 items based on a five-point Likert scale. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Data analysis was conducted by SPSS statistical software using descriptive statistics. RESULTS: Viewpoint of 214 women (89.9%) was positive. 36 (15.1%) women considered gestational surrogacy against their religious beliefs; 170 women (71.4%) did not assume the commissioning couple as owners of the baby; 160 women (67.2%) said that children who were born through surrogacy would better not know about it; and 174 women (73.1%) believed that children born through surrogacy will face mental problems. CONCLUSION: Iranian infertile women have positive viewpoint regarding the surrogacy. However, to increase the acceptability of surrogacy among infertile women, further efforts are needed. PMID:22346081

Statistical and methodological considerations for the interpretation of intranasal oxytocin studies

PubMed Central

Walum, Hasse; Waldman, Irwin D.; Young, Larry J.

2015-01-01

Over the last decade, oxytocin (OT) has received focus in numerous studies associating intranasal administration of this peptide with various aspects of human social behavior. These studies in humans are inspired by animal research, especially in rodents, showing that central manipulations of the OT system affect behavioral phenotypes related to social cognition, including parental behavior, social bonding and individual recognition. Taken together, these studies in humans appear to provide compelling, but sometimes bewildering evidence for the role of OT in influencing a vast array of complex social cognitive processes in humans. In this paper we investigate to what extent the human intranasal OT literature lends support to the hypothesis that intranasal OT consistently influences a wide spectrum of social behavior in humans. We do this by considering statistical features of studies within this field, including factors like statistical power, pre-study odds and bias. Our conclusion is that intranasal OT studies are generally underpowered and that there is a high probability that most of the published intranasal OT findings do not represent true effects. Thus the remarkable reports that intranasal OT influences a large number of human social behaviors should be viewed with healthy skepticism, and we make recommendations to improve the reliability of human OT studies in the future. PMID:26210057

On the distribution of career longevity and the evolution of home-run prowess in professional baseball

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petersen, Alexander M.; Jung, Woo-Sung; Stanley, H. Eugene

2008-09-01

Statistical analysis is a major aspect of baseball, from player averages to historical benchmarks and records. Much of baseball fanfare is based around players exceeding the norm, some in a single game and others over a long career. Career statistics serve as a metric for classifying players and establishing their historical legacy. However, the concept of records and benchmarks assumes that the level of competition in baseball is stationary in time. Here we show that power law probability density functions, a hallmark of many complex systems that are driven by competition, govern career longevity in baseball. We also find similar power laws in the density functions of all major performance metrics for pitchers and batters. The use of performance-enhancing drugs has a dark history, emerging as a problem for both amateur and professional sports. We find statistical evidence consistent with performance-enhancing drugs in the analysis of home runs hit by players in the last 25 years. This is corroborated by the findings of the Mitchell Report (2007), a two-year investigation into the use of illegal steroids in Major League Baseball, which recently revealed that over 5 percent of Major League Baseball players tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs in an anonymous 2003 survey.

Bone measurements of infants with hyperbilirubinemia by quantitative ultrasound: the influence of phototherapy.

PubMed

Arıkan, Fatma İnci; Kara, Semra; Bilgin, Hüseyin; Özkan, Fatma; Bilge, Yıldız Dallar

2017-07-01

The purpose of the current study was to investigate the possible effects of phototherapy on bone status of term infants evaluated by measurement of tibial bone speed of sound (SOS). The phototherapy group (n = 30) consisted of children who had undergone phototherapy for at least 24 h and the control group (n = 30) comprised children who had not received phototherapy. Blood samples were obtained from all infants for serum calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, alkaline phosphatase, parathyroid hormone and vitamin D concentrations. The left tibial quantitative ultrasound (QUS) measurements were performed using a commercial device. There was no statistically significant difference between phototherapy-exposed and nonexposed infants in terms of Ca, P, ALP, PTH and vitamin D levels. Comparison of bone SOS between the phototherapy-exposed and control group revealed no statistically difference. Also, no significant difference in Z-score for SOS was observed between those with or without exposure. The data of our study indicate that phototherapy treatment has no impact on bone status in the hyperbilirubinemic infants. Although there is no statistically significant evidence of an excess risk of bone damage following phototherapy, studies with larger sample sizes and longer duration of follow-up are needed to gain a better understanding of its effects.

Testing for statistical discrimination in health care.

PubMed

Balsa, Ana I; McGuire, Thomas G; Meredith, Lisa S

2005-02-01

To examine the extent to which doctors' rational reactions to clinical uncertainty ("statistical discrimination") can explain racial differences in the diagnosis of depression, hypertension, and diabetes. Main data are from the Medical Outcomes Study (MOS), a 1986 study conducted by RAND Corporation in three U.S. cities. The study compares the processes and outcomes of care for patients in different health care systems. Complementary data from National Health And Examination Survey III (NHANES III) and National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) are also used. Across three systems of care (staff health maintenance organizations, multispecialty groups, and solo practices), the MOS selected 523 health care clinicians. A representative cross-section (21,480) of patients was then chosen from a pool of adults who visited any of these providers during a 9-day period. We analyzed a subsample of the MOS data consisting of patients of white family physicians or internists (11,664 patients). We obtain variables reflecting patients' health conditions and severity, demographics, socioeconomic status, and insurance from the patients' screener interview (administered by MOS staff prior to the patient's encounter with the clinician). We used the reports made by the clinician after the visit to construct indicators of doctors' diagnoses. We obtained prevalence rates from NHANES III and NCS. We find evidence consistent with statistical discrimination for diagnoses of hypertension, diabetes, and depression. In particular, we find that if clinicians act like Bayesians, plausible priors held by the physician about the prevalence of the disease across racial groups could account for racial differences in the diagnosis of hypertension and diabetes. In the case of depression, we find evidence that race affects decisions through differences in communication patterns between doctors and white and minority patients. To contend effectively with inequities in health care, it is necessary to understand the mechanisms behind the problem. Discrimination stemming from prejudice is of a very different character than discrimination stemming from the application of rules of conditional probability as a response to clinical uncertainty. While in the former case, doctors are not acting in the best interests of their patients, in the latter, they are doing the best they can, given the information available. If miscommunication is the culprit, then efforts should be aimed at reducing disparities in the ways in which doctors communicate with patients.

Statistical Validation of a Web-Based GIS Application and Its Applicability to Cardiovascular-Related Studies.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Eun; Sung, Jung Hye; Malouhi, Mohamad

2015-12-22

There is abundant evidence that neighborhood characteristics are significantly linked to the health of the inhabitants of a given space within a given time frame. This study is to statistically validate a web-based GIS application designed to support cardiovascular-related research developed by the NIH funded Research Centers in Minority Institutions (RCMI) Translational Research Network (RTRN) Data Coordinating Center (DCC) and discuss its applicability to cardiovascular studies. Geo-referencing, geocoding and geospatial analyses were conducted for 500 randomly selected home addresses in a U.S. southeastern Metropolitan area. The correlation coefficient, factor analysis and Cronbach's alpha (α) were estimated to quantify measures of the internal consistency, reliability and construct/criterion/discriminant validity of the cardiovascular-related geospatial variables (walk score, number of hospitals, fast food restaurants, parks and sidewalks). Cronbach's α for CVD GEOSPATIAL variables was 95.5%, implying successful internal consistency. Walk scores were significantly correlated with number of hospitals (r = 0.715; p < 0.0001), fast food restaurants (r = 0.729; p < 0.0001), parks (r = 0.773; p < 0.0001) and sidewalks (r = 0.648; p < 0.0001) within a mile from homes. It was also significantly associated with diversity index (r = 0.138, p = 0.0023), median household incomes (r = -0.181; p < 0.0001), and owner occupied rates (r = -0.440; p < 0.0001). However, its non-significant correlation was found with median age, vulnerability, unemployment rate, labor force, and population growth rate. Our data demonstrates that geospatial data generated by the web-based application were internally consistent and demonstrated satisfactory validity. Therefore, the GIS application may be useful to apply to cardiovascular-related studies aimed to investigate potential impact of geospatial factors on diseases and/or the long-term effect of clinical trials.

Weight-of-evidence analysis of human exposures to dioxins and dioxin-like compounds and associations with thyroid hormone levels during early development.

PubMed

Goodman, Julie E; Kerper, Laura E; Boyce, Catherine Petito; Prueitt, Robyn L; Rhomberg, Lorenz R

2010-10-01

Thyroid hormones play a critical role in the proper development of brain function and cell growth. Several epidemiological studies have been conducted to assess potential associations between pre- and post-natal exposure to dioxins or dioxin-like compounds (DLCs) and the levels of circulating thyroid hormones during early development. Dioxins and DLCs include chlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, chlorinated dibenzofurans, and mono- and non-ortho polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). We identified a total of 23 relevant epidemiological studies (21 cohort studies and 1 case-control study) that measured exposures to various types of dioxins and DLCs as well as markers of thyroid function, such as thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), total thyroxine (T4), free T4, total triiodothyroxine (T3), free T3, and thyroid-binding globulin concentrations in cord blood or circulation. While some of the studies reported associations between concentrations of dioxins and/or DLCs and some biomarkers of thyroid function, the majority of the observed associations were not statistically significant. Moreover, there were no clear and consistent effects across studies for any of the hormone levels examined, and while a number of studies showed a statistically significant association with exposure for a given marker of thyroid function, other studies showed either no change or changes in the opposite direction for the same thyroid function marker. Similarly, when the results were analyzed considering developmental stage, there generally were no clear and consistent effects at any age from birth through 12 years of age. The absence of a clear correlation between background exposures to dioxins and DLCs and thyroid function biomarkers during development is not consistent with the hypothesis that background exposures to these chemicals cause effects on thyroid function during development. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Physical activity and risk of pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Behrens, Gundula; Jochem, Carmen; Schmid, Daniela; Keimling, Marlen; Ricci, Cristian; Leitzmann, Michael F

2015-04-01

Physical activity may prevent pancreatic cancer by regulating body weight and decreasing insulin resistance, DNA damage, and chronic inflammation. Previous meta-analyses found inconsistent evidence for a protective effect of physical activity on pancreatic cancer but those studies did not investigate whether the association between physical activity and pancreatic cancer varies by smoking status, body mass index (BMI), or level of consistency of physical activity over time. To address these issues, we conducted an updated meta-analysis following the PRISMA guidelines among 30 distinct studies with a total of 10,501 pancreatic cancer cases. Random effects meta-analysis of cohort studies revealed a weak, statistically significant reduction in pancreatic cancer risk for high versus low levels of physical activity (relative risk (RR) 0.93, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.88-0.98). By comparison, case-control studies yielded a stronger, statistically significant risk reduction (RR 0.78, 95 % CI 0.66-0.94; p-difference by study design = 0.07). When focusing on cohort studies, physical activity summary risk estimates appeared to be more pronounced for consistent physical activity over time (RR 0.86, 95 % CI 0.76-0.97) than for recent past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.90-1.01) or distant past physical activity (RR 0.95, 95 % CI 0.79-1.15, p-difference by timing in life of physical activity = 0.36). Physical activity summary risk estimates did not differ by smoking status or BMI. In conclusion, physical activity is not strongly associated with pancreatic cancer risk, and the relation is not modified by smoking status or BMI level. While overall findings were weak, we did find some suggestion of potential pancreatic cancer risk reduction with consistent physical activity over time.

Weighted Statistical Binning: Enabling Statistically Consistent Genome-Scale Phylogenetic Analyses

PubMed Central

Bayzid, Md Shamsuzzoha; Mirarab, Siavash; Boussau, Bastien; Warnow, Tandy

2015-01-01

Because biological processes can result in different loci having different evolutionary histories, species tree estimation requires multiple loci from across multiple genomes. While many processes can result in discord between gene trees and species trees, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modeled by the multi-species coalescent, is considered to be a dominant cause for gene tree heterogeneity. Coalescent-based methods have been developed to estimate species trees, many of which operate by combining estimated gene trees, and so are called "summary methods". Because summary methods are generally fast (and much faster than more complicated coalescent-based methods that co-estimate gene trees and species trees), they have become very popular techniques for estimating species trees from multiple loci. However, recent studies have established that summary methods can have reduced accuracy in the presence of gene tree estimation error, and also that many biological datasets have substantial gene tree estimation error, so that summary methods may not be highly accurate in biologically realistic conditions. Mirarab et al. (Science 2014) presented the "statistical binning" technique to improve gene tree estimation in multi-locus analyses, and showed that it improved the accuracy of MP-EST, one of the most popular coalescent-based summary methods. Statistical binning, which uses a simple heuristic to evaluate "combinability" and then uses the larger sets of genes to re-calculate gene trees, has good empirical performance, but using statistical binning within a phylogenomic pipeline does not have the desirable property of being statistically consistent. We show that weighting the re-calculated gene trees by the bin sizes makes statistical binning statistically consistent under the multispecies coalescent, and maintains the good empirical performance. Thus, "weighted statistical binning" enables highly accurate genome-scale species tree estimation, and is also statistically consistent under the multi-species coalescent model. New data used in this study are available at DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1411146, and the software is available at https://github.com/smirarab/binning. PMID:26086579

Receiving treatment, labor force activity, and work performance among people with psychiatric disorders: results from a population survey.

PubMed

Waghorn, Geoffrey; Chant, David

2011-12-01

Standard treatments for psychiatric disorders such as schizophrenia, depression and anxiety disorders are generally expected to benefit individuals, employers, and the wider community through improvements in work-functioning and productivity. We repeated a previous secondary investigation of receiving treatment, labor force activity and self-reported work performance among people with ICD-10 psychiatric disorders, in comparison to people with other types of health conditions. Data were collected by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2003 repeating a survey administered in 1998 using representative multistage sampling strategies. The 2003 household probability sample consisted of 36,241 working age individuals. Consistent with the previous secondary investigation based on the 1998 survey administration, receiving treatment was consistently associated with non-participation in the labor force, and was negatively associated with work performance. At a population level, receiving treatment was negatively associated with labor force activity and work performance. The stability of these results in two independent surveys highlights the need to investigate the longitudinal relationships between evidence-based treatments for psychiatric conditions as applied in real-world settings, and labor force participation and work performance outcomes.

45 CFR 160.536 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 160.536 Section 160.536... REQUIREMENTS GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS Procedures for Hearings § 160.536 Statistical sampling. (a) In... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number of violations under § 160.406 of this part, or the...

42 CFR 1003.133 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 1003.133 Section 1003.133... AUTHORITIES CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES, ASSESSMENTS AND EXCLUSIONS § 1003.133 Statistical sampling. (a) In meeting... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number and amount of claims and/or requests for payment as...

45 CFR 160.536 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 45 Public Welfare 1 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 160.536 Section 160.536... REQUIREMENTS GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE REQUIREMENTS Procedures for Hearings § 160.536 Statistical sampling. (a) In... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number of violations under § 160.406 of this part, or the...

42 CFR 1003.133 - Statistical sampling.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Statistical sampling. 1003.133 Section 1003.133... AUTHORITIES CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES, ASSESSMENTS AND EXCLUSIONS § 1003.133 Statistical sampling. (a) In meeting... statistical sampling study as evidence of the number and amount of claims and/or requests for payment as...

Heads Up! a Calculation- & Jargon-Free Approach to Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Giese, Alan R.

2012-01-01

Evaluating the strength of evidence in noisy data is a critical step in scientific thinking that typically relies on statistics. Students without statistical training will benefit from heuristic models that highlight the logic of statistical analysis. The likelihood associated with various coin-tossing outcomes gives students such a model. There…

Alterations in the inferior longitudinal fasciculus in autism and associations with visual processing: a diffusion-weighted MRI study.

PubMed

Boets, Bart; Van Eylen, Lien; Sitek, Kevin; Moors, Pieter; Noens, Ilse; Steyaert, Jean; Sunaert, Stefan; Wagemans, Johan

2018-01-01

One of the most reported neural features of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is the alteration of multiple long-range white matter fiber tracts, as assessed by diffusion-weighted imaging and indexed by reduced fractional anisotropy (FA). Recent methodological advances, however, have shown that this same pattern of reduced FA may be an artifact resulting from excessive head motion and poorer data quality and that aberrant structural connectivity in children with ASD is confined to the right inferior longitudinal fasciculus (ILF). This study aimed at replicating the observation of reduced FA along the right ILF in ASD, while controlling for group differences in head motion and data quality. In addition, we explored associations between reduced FA in the right ILF and quantitative ASD characteristics, and the involvement of the right ILF in visual processing, which is known to be altered in ASD. Global probabilistic tractography was performed on diffusion-weighted imaging data of 17 adolescent boys with ASD and 17 typically developing boys, matched for age, performance IQ, handedness, and data quality. Four tasks were administered to measure various aspects of visual information processing, together with questionnaires assessing ASD characteristics. Group differences were examined and the neural data were integrated with previously published findings using Bayesian statistics to quantify evidence for replication and to pool data and thus increase statistical power. (Partial) correlations were calculated to investigate associations between measures. The ASD group showed consistently reduced FA only in the right ILF and slower performance on the visual search task. Bayesian statistics pooling data across studies confirmed that group differences in FA were confined to the right ILF only, with the evidence for altered FA in the left ILF being indecisive. Lower FA in the right ILF tended to covary with slower visual search and a more fragmented part-oriented processing style. Individual differences in FA of the right ILF were not reliably associated with the severity of ASD traits after controlling for clinical status. Our findings support the growing evidence for reduced FA along a specific fiber tract in ASD, the right ILF.

The Relationship between Neighbourhood Green Space and Child Mental Wellbeing Depends upon Whom You Ask: Multilevel Evidence from 3083 Children Aged 12-13 Years.

PubMed

Feng, Xiaoqi; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2017-02-27

Recent reviews of the rapidly growing scientific literature on neighbourhood green space and health show strong evidence for protective and restorative effects on mental wellbeing. However, multiple informants are common when reporting mental wellbeing in studies of children. Do different informants lead to different results? This study utilised nationally representative data on Goodman's 25-item Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire reported by 3083 children (aged 12-13 years old), and their parents and teachers. Multilevel models were used to investigate whether similar associations between child mental wellbeing (as measured using the total difficulties score and the internalising and externalising subscales) and neighbourhood green space quantity and quality are obtained regardless of the informant. After adjustment for confounders, higher green space quantity and quality were associated with consistently more favourable child mental wellbeing on all three measures, regardless of the informant. However, associations with green space quantity were statistically significant ( p < 0.05) only for the parent-reported total difficulties score and the internalising subscale. Significant associations with green space quality were consistently observed for both parent- and child-reported outcomes. Teacher-reported outcomes were not significantly associated with green space exposure. Future studies of green space and child health should acknowledge when different informants of outcomes could lead to different conclusions.

The Relationship between Neighbourhood Green Space and Child Mental Wellbeing Depends upon Whom You Ask: Multilevel Evidence from 3083 Children Aged 12–13 Years

PubMed Central

Feng, Xiaoqi; Astell-Burt, Thomas

2017-01-01

Recent reviews of the rapidly growing scientific literature on neighbourhood green space and health show strong evidence for protective and restorative effects on mental wellbeing. However, multiple informants are common when reporting mental wellbeing in studies of children. Do different informants lead to different results? This study utilised nationally representative data on Goodman’s 25-item Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire reported by 3083 children (aged 12–13 years old), and their parents and teachers. Multilevel models were used to investigate whether similar associations between child mental wellbeing (as measured using the total difficulties score and the internalising and externalising subscales) and neighbourhood green space quantity and quality are obtained regardless of the informant. After adjustment for confounders, higher green space quantity and quality were associated with consistently more favourable child mental wellbeing on all three measures, regardless of the informant. However, associations with green space quantity were statistically significant (p < 0.05) only for the parent-reported total difficulties score and the internalising subscale. Significant associations with green space quality were consistently observed for both parent- and child-reported outcomes. Teacher-reported outcomes were not significantly associated with green space exposure. Future studies of green space and child health should acknowledge when different informants of outcomes could lead to different conclusions. PMID:28264461

Reimbursement decisions of the All Wales Medicines Strategy Group: influence of policy and clinical and economic factors.

PubMed

Linley, Warren G; Hughes, Dyfrig A

2012-09-01

There have been several explorations of factors influencing the reimbursement decisions of the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) but not of other UK-based health technology assessment (HTA) organizations. This study aimed to explore the factors influencing the recommendations of the All Wales Medicines Strategy Group (AWMSG) on the use of new medicines in Wales. Based on public data, logistic regression models were developed to evaluate the influence of cost effectiveness, the quality and quantity of clinical evidence, disease characteristics (including rarity), budget impact, and a range of other factors on the recommendations of AWMSG and its subcommittee, the New Medicines Group (NMG). Multivariate analyses of 47 AWMSG appraisals between 2007-9 correctly predicted 87% of decisions. The results are suggestive of a positive influence on recommendations of the presence of probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) but, counter-intuitively, a statistically significant negative influence of evidence from high-quality randomized controlled trials (RCTs) [odds ratio 0.059; 95% CI 0.005, 0.699]. This latter observation may be attributed to our strict definition of high quality, which excluded the use of surrogate endpoints. Putative explanatory variables, including cost effectiveness, budget impact, underlying disease characteristics and 'ultra'-orphan drug status were not statistically significant predictors of final AWMSG decisions based on our dataset. Univariate analyses indicate that medicines with negative recommendations had significantly higher incremental cost-effectiveness ratios than those with positive recommendations, consistent with the pursuit of economic efficiency. There is also evidence that AWMSG considers equity issues via an ultra-orphan drugs policy. Consideration of decision uncertainty via PSA appears to positively influence the reimbursement decisions of AWMSG. The significant negative impact of the presence of high-quality RCTs, and the lack of a significant positive impact of other expected factors, may reflect issues in the plausibility of supporting evidence for medicines that received negative recommendations. Furthermore, it serves to emphasize the difficulties in applying the usual hierarchies of evidence to the HTA process, and in particular to the appraisal of high-cost specialist medicines close to market launch.

Self-consistent mean-field approach to the statistical level density in spherical nuclei

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolomietz, V. M.; Sanzhur, A. I.; Shlomo, S.

2018-06-01

A self-consistent mean-field approach within the extended Thomas-Fermi approximation with Skyrme forces is applied to the calculations of the statistical level density in spherical nuclei. Landau's concept of quasiparticles with the nucleon effective mass and the correct description of the continuum states for the finite-depth potentials are taken into consideration. The A dependence and the temperature dependence of the statistical inverse level-density parameter K is obtained in a good agreement with experimental data.

Transverse-momentum and collision-energy dependence of high-pT hadron suppression in Au+Au collisions at ultrarelativistic energies.

PubMed

Adams, J; Adler, C; Aggarwal, M M; Ahammed, Z; Amonett, J; Anderson, B D; Anderson, M; Arkhipkin, D; Averichev, G S; Badyal, S K; Balewski, J; Barannikova, O; Barnby, L S; Baudot, J; Bekele, S; Belaga, V V; Bellwied, R; Berger, J; Bezverkhny, B I; Bhardwaj, S; Bhaskar, P; Bhati, A K; Bichsel, H; Billmeier, A; Bland, L C; Blyth, C O; Bonner, B E; Botje, M; Boucham, A; Brandin, A; Bravar, A; Cadman, R V; Cai, X Z; Caines, H; Calderón de la Barca Sánchez, M; Carroll, J; Castillo, J; Castro, M; Cebra, D; Chaloupka, P; Chattopadhyay, S; Chen, H F; Chen, Y; Chernenko, S P; Cherney, M; Chikanian, A; Choi, B; Christie, W; Coffin, J P; Cormier, T M; Cramer, J G; Crawford, H J; Das, D; Das, S; Derevschikov, A A; Didenko, L; Dietel, T; Dong, X; Draper, J E; Drees, K A; Du, F; Dubey, A K; Dunin, V B; Dunlop, J C; Dutta Majumdar, M R; Eckardt, V; Efimov, L G; Emelianov, V; Engelage, J; Eppley, G; Erazmus, B; Fachini, P; Faine, V; Faivre, J; Fatemi, R; Filimonov, K; Filip, P; Finch, E; Fisyak, Y; Flierl, D; Foley, K J; Fu, J; Gagliardi, C A; Ganti, M S; Gagunashvili, N; Gans, J; Gaudichet, L; Germain, M; Geurts, F; Ghazikhanian, V; Ghosh, P; Gonzalez, J E; Grachov, O; Grigoriev, V; Gronstal, S; Grosnick, D; Guedon, M; Guertin, S M; Gupta, A; Gushin, E; Gutierrez, T D; Hallman, T J; Hardtke, D; Harris, J W; Heinz, M; Henry, T W; Heppelmann, S; Herston, T; Hippolyte, B; Hirsch, A; Hjort, E; Hoffmann, G W; Horsley, M; Huang, H Z; Huang, S L; Humanic, T J; Igo, G; Ishihara, A; Jacobs, P; Jacobs, W W; Janik, M; Johnson, I; Jones, P G; Judd, E G; Kabana, S; Kaneta, M; Kaplan, M; Keane, D; Kiryluk, J; Kisiel, A; Klay, J; Klein, S R; Klyachko, A; Kollegger, T; Konstantinov, A S; Kopytine, M; Kotchenda, L; Kovalenko, A D; Kramer, M; Kravtsov, P; Krueger, K; Kuhn, C; Kulikov, A I; Kumar, A; Kunde, G J; Kunz, C L; Kutuev, R Kh; Kuznetsov, A A; Lamont, M A C; Landgraf, J M; Lange, S; Lansdell, C P; Lasiuk, B; Laue, F; Lauret, J; Lebedev, A; Lednický, R; Leontiev, V M; LeVine, M J; Li, C; Li, Q; Lindenbaum, S J; Lisa, M A; Liu, F; Liu, L; Liu, Z; Liu, Q J; Ljubicic, T; Llope, W J; Long, H; Longacre, R S; Lopez-Noriega, M; Love, W A; Ludlam, T; Lynn, D; Ma, J; Ma, Y G; Magestro, D; Mahajan, S; Mangotra, L K; Mahapatra, D P; Majka, R; Manweiler, R; Margetis, S; Markert, C; Martin, L; Marx, J; Matis, H S; Matulenko, Yu A; McShane, T S; Meissner, F; Melnick, Yu; Meschanin, A; Messer, M; Miller, M L; Milosevich, Z; Minaev, N G; Mironov, C; Mishra, D; Mitchell, J; Mohanty, B; Molnar, L; Moore, C F; Mora-Corral, M J; Morozov, V; de Moura, M M; Munhoz, M G; Nandi, B K; Nayak, S K; Nayak, T K; Nelson, J M; Nevski, P; Nikitin, V A; Nogach, L V; Norman, B; Nurushev, S B; Odyniec, G; Ogawa, A; Okorokov, V; Oldenburg, M; Olson, D; Paic, G; Pandey, S U; Pal, S K; Panebratsev, Y; Panitkin, S Y; Pavlinov, A I; Pawlak, T; Perevoztchikov, V; Peryt, W; Petrov, V A; Phatak, S C; Picha, R; Planinic, M; Pluta, J; Porile, N; Porter, J; Poskanzer, A M; Potekhin, M; Potrebenikova, E; Potukuchi, B V K S; Prindle, D; Pruneau, C; Putschke, J; Rai, G; Rakness, G; Raniwala, R; Raniwala, S; Ravel, O; Ray, R L; Razin, S V; Reichhold, D; Reid, J G; Renault, G; Retiere, F; Ridiger, A; Ritter, H G; Roberts, J B; Rogachevski, O V; Romero, J L; Rose, A; Roy, C; Ruan, L J; Rykov, V; Sahoo, R; Sakrejda, I; Salur, S; Sandweiss, J; Savin, I; Schambach, J; Scharenberg, R P; Schmitz, N; Schroeder, L S; Schweda, K; Seger, J; Seliverstov, D; Seyboth, P; Shahaliev, E; Shao, M; Sharma, M; Shestermanov, K E; Shimanskii, S S; Singaraju, R N; Simon, F; Skoro, G; Smirnov, N; Snellings, R; Sood, G; Sorensen, P; Sowinski, J; Spinka, H M; Srivastava, B; Stanislaus, S; Stock, R; Stolpovsky, A; Strikhanov, M; Stringfellow, B; Struck, C; Suaide, A A P; Sugarbaker, E; Suire, C; Sumbera, M; Surrow, B; Symons, T J M; Szanto de Toledo, A; Szarwas, P; Tai, A; Takahashi, J; Tang, A H; Thein, D; Thomas, J H; Tikhomirov, V; Tokarev, M; Tonjes, M B; Trainor, T A; Trentalange, S; Tribble, R E; Trivedi, M D; Trofimov, V; Tsai, O; Ullrich, T; Underwood, D G; Van Buren, G; VanderMolen, A M; Vasiliev, A N; Vasiliev, M; Vigdor, S E; Viyogi, Y P; Voloshin, S A; Waggoner, W; Wang, F; Wang, G; Wang, X L; Wang, Z M; Ward, H; Watson, J W; Wells, R; Westfall, G D; Whitten, C; Wieman, H; Willson, R; Wissink, S W; Witt, R; Wood, J; Wu, J; Xu, N; Xu, Z; Xu, Z Z; Yakutin, A E; Yamamoto, E; Yang, J; Yepes, P; Yurevich, V I; Zanevski, Y V; Zborovský, I; Zhang, H; Zhang, H Y; Zhang, W M; Zhang, Z P; Zołnierczuk, P A; Zoulkarneev, R; Zoulkarneeva, J; Zubarev, A N

2003-10-24

We report high statistics measurements of inclusive charged hadron production in Au+Au and p+p collisions at sqrt[s(NN)]=200 GeV. A large, approximately constant hadron suppression is observed in central Au+Au collisions for 5

Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, B.; Alcaniz, J.S.; Coley, A.A.

An important problem in precision cosmology is the determination of the effects of averaging and backreaction on observational predictions, particularly in view of the wealth of new observational data and improved statistical techniques. In this paper, we discuss the observational viability of a class of averaged cosmologies which consist of a simple parametrized phenomenological two-scale backreaction model with decoupled spatial curvature parameters. We perform a Bayesian model selection analysis and find that this class of averaged phenomenological cosmological models is favored with respect to the standard ΛCDM cosmological scenario when a joint analysis of current SNe Ia and BAO datamore » is performed. In particular, the analysis provides observational evidence for non-trivial spatial curvature.« less

Evidence for the Rare Decay Σ^{+}→pμ^{+}μ^{-}.

PubMed

Aaij, R; Adeva, B; Adinolfi, M; Ajaltouni, Z; Akar, S; Albrecht, J; Alessio, F; Alexander, M; Alfonso Albero, A; Ali, S; Alkhazov, G; Alvarez Cartelle, P; Alves, A A; Amato, S; Amerio, S; Amhis, Y; An, L; Anderlini, L; Andreassi, G; Andreotti, M; Andrews, J E; Appleby, R B; Archilli, F; d'Argent, P; Arnau Romeu, J; Artamonov, A; Artuso, M; Aslanides, E; Atzeni, M; Auriemma, G; Baalouch, M; Babuschkin, I; Bachmann, S; Back, J J; Badalov, A; Baesso, C; Baker, S; Balagura, V; Baldini, W; Baranov, A; Barlow, R J; Barschel, C; Barsuk, S; Barter, W; Baryshnikov, F; Batozskaya, V; Battista, V; Bay, A; Beaucourt, L; Beddow, J; Bedeschi, F; Bediaga, I; Beiter, A; Bel, L J; Beliy, N; Bellee, V; Belloli, N; Belous, K; Belyaev, I; Ben-Haim, E; Bencivenni, G; Benson, S; Beranek, S; Berezhnoy, A; Bernet, R; Berninghoff, D; Bertholet, E; Bertolin, A; Betancourt, C; Betti, F; Bettler, M O; van Beuzekom, M; Bezshyiko, Ia; Bifani, S; Billoir, P; Birnkraut, A; Bizzeti, A; Bjørn, M; Blake, T; Blanc, F; Blusk, S; Bocci, V; Boettcher, T; Bondar, A; Bondar, N; Bordyuzhin, I; Borghi, S; Borisyak, M; Borsato, M; Bossu, F; Boubdir, M; Bowcock, T J V; Bowen, E; Bozzi, C; Braun, S; Brodzicka, J; Brundu, D; Buchanan, E; Burr, C; Bursche, A; Buytaert, J; Byczynski, W; Cadeddu, S; Cai, H; Calabrese, R; Calladine, R; Calvi, M; Calvo Gomez, M; Camboni, A; Campana, P; Campora Perez, D H; Capriotti, L; Carbone, A; Carboni, G; Cardinale, R; Cardini, A; Carniti, P; Carson, L; Carvalho Akiba, K; Casse, G; Cassina, L; Cattaneo, M; Cavallero, G; Cenci, R; Chamont, D; Chapman, M G; Charles, M; Charpentier, Ph; Chatzikonstantinidis, G; Chefdeville, M; Chen, S; Cheung, S F; Chitic, S-G; Chobanova, V; Chrzaszcz, M; Chubykin, A; Ciambrone, P; Cid Vidal, X; Ciezarek, G; Clarke, P E L; Clemencic, M; Cliff, H V; Closier, J; Coco, V; Cogan, J; Cogneras, E; Cogoni, V; Cojocariu, L; Collins, P; Colombo, T; Comerma-Montells, A; Contu, A; Coombs, G; Coquereau, S; Corti, G; Corvo, M; Costa Sobral, C M; Couturier, B; Cowan, G A; Craik, D C; Crocombe, A; Cruz Torres, M; Currie, R; D'Ambrosio, C; Da Cunha Marinho, F; Da Silva, C L; Dall'Occo, E; Dalseno, J; Davis, A; De Aguiar Francisco, O; De Bruyn, K; De Capua, S; De Cian, M; De Miranda, J M; De Paula, L; De Serio, M; De Simone, P; Dean, C T; Decamp, D; Del Buono, L; Dembinski, H-P; Demmer, M; Dendek, A; Derkach, D; Deschamps, O; Dettori, F; Dey, B; Di Canto, A; Di Nezza, P; Dijkstra, H; Dordei, F; Dorigo, M; Dosil Suárez, A; Douglas, L; Dovbnya, A; Dreimanis, K; Dufour, L; Dujany, G; Durante, P; Durham, J M; Dutta, D; Dzhelyadin, R; Dziewiecki, M; Dziurda, A; Dzyuba, A; Easo, S; Egede, U; Egorychev, V; Eidelman, S; Eisenhardt, S; Eitschberger, U; Ekelhof, R; Eklund, L; Ely, S; Esen, S; Evans, H M; Evans, T; Falabella, A; Farley, N; Farry, S; Fazzini, D; Federici, L; Ferguson, D; Fernandez, G; Fernandez Declara, P; Fernandez Prieto, A; Ferrari, F; Ferreira Lopes, L; Ferreira Rodrigues, F; Ferro-Luzzi, M; Filippov, S; Fini, R A; Fiorini, M; Firlej, M; Fitzpatrick, C; 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Henrard, P; Henry, L; van Herwijnen, E; Heß, M; Hicheur, A; Hill, D; Hopchev, P H; Hu, W; Huang, W; Huard, Z C; Hulsbergen, W; Humair, T; Hushchyn, M; Hutchcroft, D; Ibis, P; Idzik, M; Ilten, P; Jacobsson, R; Jalocha, J; Jans, E; Jawahery, A; Jiang, F; John, M; Johnson, D; Jones, C R; Joram, C; Jost, B; Jurik, N; Kandybei, S; Karacson, M; Kariuki, J M; Karodia, S; Kazeev, N; Kecke, M; Keizer, F; Kelsey, M; Kenzie, M; Ketel, T; Khairullin, E; Khanji, B; Khurewathanakul, C; Kim, K E; Kirn, T; Klaver, S; Klimaszewski, K; Klimkovich, T; Koliiev, S; Kolpin, M; Kopecna, R; Koppenburg, P; Kosmyntseva, A; Kotriakhova, S; Kozeiha, M; Kravchuk, L; Kreps, M; Kress, F; Krokovny, P; Krzemien, W; Kucewicz, W; Kucharczyk, M; Kudryavtsev, V; Kuonen, A K; Kvaratskheliya, T; Lacarrere, D; Lafferty, G; Lai, A; Lanfranchi, G; Langenbruch, C; Latham, T; Lazzeroni, C; Le Gac, R; Leflat, A; Lefrançois, J; Lefèvre, R; Lemaitre, F; Lemos Cid, E; Leroy, O; Lesiak, T; Leverington, B; Li, P-R; Li, T; Li, Y; Li, Z; Liang, X; Likhomanenko, T; Lindner, R; Lionetto, F; Lisovskyi, V; Liu, X; Loh, D; Loi, A; Longstaff, I; Lopes, J H; Lucchesi, D; Lucio Martinez, M; Luo, H; Lupato, A; Luppi, E; Lupton, O; Lusiani, A; Lyu, X; Machefert, F; Maciuc, F; Macko, V; Mackowiak, P; Maddrell-Mander, S; Maev, O; Maguire, K; Maisuzenko, D; Majewski, M W; Malde, S; Malecki, B; Malinin, A; Maltsev, T; Manca, G; Mancinelli, G; Marangotto, D; Maratas, J; Marchand, J F; Marconi, U; Marin Benito, C; Marinangeli, M; Marino, P; Marks, J; Martellotti, G; Martin, M; Martinelli, M; Martinez Santos, D; Martinez Vidal, F; Massafferri, A; Matev, R; Mathad, A; Mathe, Z; Matteuzzi, C; Mauri, A; Maurice, E; Maurin, B; Mazurov, A; McCann, M; McNab, A; McNulty, R; Mead, J V; Meadows, B; Meaux, C; Meier, F; Meinert, N; Melnychuk, D; Merk, M; Merli, A; Michielin, E; Milanes, D A; Millard, E; Minard, M-N; Minzoni, L; Mitzel, D S; Mogini, A; Molina Rodriguez, J; Mombächer, T; Monroy, I A; Monteil, S; Morandin, M; Morello, M J; Morgunova, O; 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Zheng, Y; Zhu, X; Zhukov, V; Zonneveld, J B; Zucchelli, S

2018-06-01

A search for the rare decay Σ^{+}→pμ^{+}μ^{-} is performed using pp collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies sqrt[s]=7 and 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3  fb^{-1}. An excess of events is observed with respect to the background expectation, with a signal significance of 4.1 standard deviations. No significant structure is observed in the dimuon invariant mass distribution, in contrast with a previous result from the HyperCP experiment. The measured Σ^{+}→pμ^{+}μ^{-} branching fraction is (2.2_{-1.3}^{+1.8})×10^{-8}, where statistical and systematic uncertainties are included, which is consistent with the standard model prediction.

Evidence for the Rare Decay Σ+→p μ+μ-

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aaij, R.; Adeva, B.; Adinolfi, M.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Akar, S.; Albrecht, J.; Alessio, F.; Alexander, M.; Alfonso Albero, A.; Ali, S.; Alkhazov, G.; Alvarez Cartelle, P.; Alves, A. A.; Amato, S.; Amerio, S.; Amhis, Y.; An, L.; Anderlini, L.; Andreassi, G.; Andreotti, M.; Andrews, J. E.; Appleby, R. B.; Archilli, F.; d'Argent, P.; Arnau Romeu, J.; Artamonov, A.; Artuso, M.; Aslanides, E.; Atzeni, M.; Auriemma, G.; Baalouch, M.; Babuschkin, I.; Bachmann, S.; Back, J. J.; Badalov, A.; Baesso, C.; Baker, S.; Balagura, V.; Baldini, W.; Baranov, A.; Barlow, R. J.; Barschel, C.; Barsuk, S.; Barter, W.; Baryshnikov, F.; Batozskaya, V.; Battista, V.; Bay, A.; Beaucourt, L.; Beddow, J.; Bedeschi, F.; Bediaga, I.; Beiter, A.; Bel, L. J.; Beliy, N.; Bellee, V.; Belloli, N.; Belous, K.; Belyaev, I.; Ben-Haim, E.; Bencivenni, G.; Benson, S.; Beranek, S.; Berezhnoy, A.; Bernet, R.; Berninghoff, D.; Bertholet, E.; Bertolin, A.; Betancourt, C.; Betti, F.; Bettler, M. O.; van Beuzekom, M.; Bezshyiko, Ia.; Bifani, S.; Billoir, P.; Birnkraut, A.; Bizzeti, A.; Bjørn, M.; Blake, T.; Blanc, F.; Blusk, S.; Bocci, V.; Boettcher, T.; Bondar, A.; Bondar, N.; Bordyuzhin, I.; Borghi, S.; Borisyak, M.; Borsato, M.; Bossu, F.; Boubdir, M.; Bowcock, T. J. V.; Bowen, E.; Bozzi, C.; Braun, S.; Brodzicka, J.; Brundu, D.; Buchanan, E.; Burr, C.; Bursche, A.; Buytaert, J.; Byczynski, W.; Cadeddu, S.; Cai, H.; Calabrese, R.; Calladine, R.; Calvi, M.; Calvo Gomez, M.; Camboni, A.; Campana, P.; Campora Perez, D. H.; Capriotti, L.; Carbone, A.; Carboni, G.; Cardinale, R.; Cardini, A.; Carniti, P.; Carson, L.; Carvalho Akiba, K.; Casse, G.; Cassina, L.; Cattaneo, M.; Cavallero, G.; Cenci, R.; Chamont, D.; Chapman, M. G.; Charles, M.; Charpentier, Ph.; Chatzikonstantinidis, G.; Chefdeville, M.; Chen, S.; Cheung, S. F.; Chitic, S.-G.; Chobanova, V.; Chrzaszcz, M.; Chubykin, A.; Ciambrone, P.; Cid Vidal, X.; Ciezarek, G.; Clarke, P. E. L.; Clemencic, M.; Cliff, H. V.; Closier, J.; Coco, V.; Cogan, J.; Cogneras, E.; Cogoni, V.; Cojocariu, L.; Collins, P.; Colombo, T.; Comerma-Montells, A.; Contu, A.; Coombs, G.; Coquereau, S.; Corti, G.; Corvo, M.; Costa Sobral, C. M.; Couturier, B.; Cowan, G. A.; Craik, D. C.; Crocombe, A.; Cruz Torres, M.; Currie, R.; D'Ambrosio, C.; Da Cunha Marinho, F.; Da Silva, C. L.; Dall'Occo, E.; Dalseno, J.; Davis, A.; De Aguiar Francisco, O.; De Bruyn, K.; De Capua, S.; De Cian, M.; De Miranda, J. M.; De Paula, L.; De Serio, M.; De Simone, P.; Dean, C. T.; Decamp, D.; Del Buono, L.; Dembinski, H.-P.; Demmer, M.; Dendek, A.; Derkach, D.; Deschamps, O.; Dettori, F.; Dey, B.; Di Canto, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Dijkstra, H.; Dordei, F.; Dorigo, M.; Dosil Suárez, A.; Douglas, L.; Dovbnya, A.; Dreimanis, K.; Dufour, L.; Dujany, G.; Durante, P.; Durham, J. M.; Dutta, D.; Dzhelyadin, R.; Dziewiecki, M.; Dziurda, A.; Dzyuba, A.; Easo, S.; Egede, U.; Egorychev, V.; Eidelman, S.; Eisenhardt, S.; Eitschberger, U.; Ekelhof, R.; Eklund, L.; Ely, S.; Esen, S.; Evans, H. M.; Evans, T.; Falabella, A.; Farley, N.; Farry, S.; Fazzini, D.; Federici, L.; Ferguson, D.; Fernandez, G.; Fernandez Declara, P.; Fernandez Prieto, A.; Ferrari, F.; Ferreira Lopes, L.; Ferreira Rodrigues, F.; Ferro-Luzzi, M.; Filippov, S.; Fini, R. A.; Fiorini, M.; Firlej, M.; Fitzpatrick, C.; Fiutowski, T.; Fleuret, F.; Fontana, M.; Fontanelli, F.; Forty, R.; Franco Lima, V.; Frank, M.; Frei, C.; Fu, J.; Funk, W.; Furfaro, E.; Färber, C.; Gabriel, E.; Gallas Torreira, A.; Galli, D.; Gallorini, S.; Gambetta, S.; Gandelman, M.; Gandini, P.; Gao, Y.; Garcia Martin, L. M.; García Pardiñas, J.; Garra Tico, J.; Garrido, L.; Gascon, D.; Gaspar, C.; Gavardi, L.; Gazzoni, G.; Gerick, D.; Gersabeck, E.; Gersabeck, M.; Gershon, T.; Ghez, Ph.; Gianı, S.; Gibson, V.; Girard, O. G.; Giubega, L.; Gizdov, K.; Gligorov, V. V.; Golubkov, D.; Golutvin, A.; Gomes, A.; Gorelov, I. V.; Gotti, C.; Govorkova, E.; Grabowski, J. P.; Graciani Diaz, R.; Granado Cardoso, L. A.; Graugés, E.; Graverini, E.; Graziani, G.; Grecu, A.; Greim, R.; Griffith, P.; Grillo, L.; Gruber, L.; Gruberg Cazon, B. R.; Grünberg, O.; Gushchin, E.; Guz, Yu.; Gys, T.; Göbel, C.; Hadavizadeh, T.; Hadjivasiliou, C.; Haefeli, G.; Haen, C.; Haines, S. C.; Hamilton, B.; Han, X.; Hancock, T. H.; Hansmann-Menzemer, S.; Harnew, N.; Harnew, S. T.; Hasse, C.; Hatch, M.; He, J.; Hecker, M.; Heinicke, K.; Heister, A.; Hennessy, K.; Henrard, P.; Henry, L.; van Herwijnen, E.; Heß, M.; Hicheur, A.; Hill, D.; Hopchev, P. H.; Hu, W.; Huang, W.; Huard, Z. C.; Hulsbergen, W.; Humair, T.; Hushchyn, M.; Hutchcroft, D.; Ibis, P.; Idzik, M.; Ilten, P.; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, J.; Jans, E.; Jawahery, A.; Jiang, F.; John, M.; Johnson, D.; Jones, C. R.; Joram, C.; Jost, B.; Jurik, N.; Kandybei, S.; Karacson, M.; Kariuki, J. M.; Karodia, S.; Kazeev, N.; Kecke, M.; Keizer, F.; Kelsey, M.; Kenzie, M.; Ketel, T.; Khairullin, E.; Khanji, B.; Khurewathanakul, C.; Kim, K. E.; Kirn, T.; Klaver, S.; Klimaszewski, K.; Klimkovich, T.; Koliiev, S.; Kolpin, M.; Kopecna, R.; Koppenburg, P.; Kosmyntseva, A.; Kotriakhova, S.; Kozeiha, M.; Kravchuk, L.; Kreps, M.; Kress, F.; Krokovny, P.; Krzemien, W.; Kucewicz, W.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kudryavtsev, V.; Kuonen, A. K.; Kvaratskheliya, T.; Lacarrere, D.; Lafferty, G.; Lai, A.; Lanfranchi, G.; Langenbruch, C.; Latham, T.; Lazzeroni, C.; Le Gac, R.; Leflat, A.; Lefrançois, J.; Lefèvre, R.; Lemaitre, F.; Lemos Cid, E.; Leroy, O.; Lesiak, T.; Leverington, B.; Li, P.-R.; Li, T.; Li, Y.; Li, Z.; Liang, X.; Likhomanenko, T.; Lindner, R.; Lionetto, F.; Lisovskyi, V.; Liu, X.; Loh, D.; Loi, A.; Longstaff, I.; Lopes, J. H.; Lucchesi, D.; Lucio Martinez, M.; Luo, H.; Lupato, A.; Luppi, E.; Lupton, O.; Lusiani, A.; Lyu, X.; Machefert, F.; Maciuc, F.; Macko, V.; Mackowiak, P.; Maddrell-Mander, S.; Maev, O.; Maguire, K.; Maisuzenko, D.; Majewski, M. W.; Malde, S.; Malecki, B.; Malinin, A.; Maltsev, T.; Manca, G.; Mancinelli, G.; Marangotto, D.; Maratas, J.; Marchand, J. F.; Marconi, U.; Marin Benito, C.; Marinangeli, M.; Marino, P.; Marks, J.; Martellotti, G.; Martin, M.; Martinelli, M.; Martinez Santos, D.; Martinez Vidal, F.; Massafferri, A.; Matev, R.; Mathad, A.; Mathe, Z.; Matteuzzi, C.; Mauri, A.; Maurice, E.; Maurin, B.; Mazurov, A.; McCann, M.; McNab, A.; McNulty, R.; Mead, J. V.; Meadows, B.; Meaux, C.; Meier, F.; Meinert, N.; Melnychuk, D.; Merk, M.; Merli, A.; Michielin, E.; Milanes, D. A.; Millard, E.; Minard, M.-N.; Minzoni, L.; Mitzel, D. S.; Mogini, A.; Molina Rodriguez, J.; Mombächer, T.; Monroy, I. A.; Monteil, S.; Morandin, M.; Morello, M. J.; Morgunova, O.; Moron, J.; Morris, A. B.; Mountain, R.; Muheim, F.; Mulder, M.; Müller, D.; Müller, J.; Müller, K.; Müller, V.; Naik, P.; Nakada, T.; Nandakumar, R.; Nandi, A.; Nasteva, I.; Needham, M.; Neri, N.; Neubert, S.; Neufeld, N.; Neuner, M.; Nguyen, T. D.; Nguyen-Mau, C.; Nieswand, S.; Niet, R.; Nikitin, N.; Nikodem, T.; Nogay, A.; O'Hanlon, D. P.; Oblakowska-Mucha, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Ogilvy, S.; Oldeman, R.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Ossowska, A.; Otalora Goicochea, J. M.; Owen, P.; Oyanguren, A.; Pais, P. R.; Palano, A.; Palutan, M.; Panshin, G.; Papanestis, A.; Pappagallo, M.; Pappalardo, L. L.; Parker, W.; Parkes, C.; Passaleva, G.; Pastore, A.; Patel, M.; Patrignani, C.; Pearce, A.; Pellegrino, A.; Penso, G.; Pepe Altarelli, M.; Perazzini, S.; Pereima, D.; Perret, P.; Pescatore, L.; Petridis, K.; Petrolini, A.; Petrov, A.; Petruzzo, M.; Picatoste Olloqui, E.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pietrzyk, G.; Pikies, M.; Pinci, D.; Pisani, F.; Pistone, A.; Piucci, A.; Placinta, V.; Playfer, S.; Plo Casasus, M.; Polci, F.; Poli Lener, M.; Poluektov, A.; Polyakov, I.; Polycarpo, E.; Pomery, G. J.; Ponce, S.; Popov, A.; Popov, D.; Poslavskii, S.; Potterat, C.; Price, E.; Prisciandaro, J.; Prouve, C.; Pugatch, V.; Puig Navarro, A.; Pullen, H.; Punzi, G.; Qian, W.; Qin, J.; Quagliani, R.; Quintana, B.; Rachwal, B.; Rademacker, J. H.; Rama, M.; Ramos Pernas, M.; Rangel, M. S.; Raniuk, I.; Ratnikov, F.; Raven, G.; Ravonel Salzgeber, M.; Reboud, M.; Redi, F.; Reichert, S.; dos Reis, A. C.; Remon Alepuz, C.; Renaudin, V.; Ricciardi, S.; Richards, S.; Rihl, M.; Rinnert, K.; Robbe, P.; Robert, A.; Rodrigues, A. B.; Rodrigues, E.; Rodriguez Lopez, J. A.; Rogozhnikov, A.; Roiser, S.; Rollings, A.; Romanovskiy, V.; Romero Vidal, A.; Rotondo, M.; Rudolph, M. S.; Ruf, T.; Ruiz Valls, P.; Ruiz Vidal, J.; Saborido Silva, J. J.; Sadykhov, E.; Sagidova, N.; Saitta, B.; Salustino Guimaraes, V.; Sanchez Mayordomo, C.; Sanmartin Sedes, B.; Santacesaria, R.; Santamarina Rios, C.; Santimaria, M.; Santovetti, E.; Sarpis, G.; Sarti, A.; Satriano, C.; Satta, A.; Saunders, D. M.; Savrina, D.; Schael, S.; Schellenberg, M.; Schiller, M.; Schindler, H.; Schmelling, M.; Schmelzer, T.; Schmidt, B.; Schneider, O.; Schopper, A.; Schreiner, H. F.; Schubiger, M.; Schune, M. H.; Schwemmer, R.; Sciascia, B.; Sciubba, A.; Semennikov, A.; Sepulveda, E. S.; Sergi, A.; Serra, N.; Serrano, J.; Sestini, L.; Seyfert, P.; Shapkin, M.; Shcheglov, Y.; Shears, T.; Shekhtman, L.; Shevchenko, V.; Siddi, B. G.; Silva Coutinho, R.; Silva de Oliveira, L.; Simi, G.; Simone, S.; Sirendi, M.; Skidmore, N.; Skwarnicki, T.; Smith, I. T.; Smith, J.; Smith, M.; Soares Lavra, l.; Sokoloff, M. D.; Soler, F. J. P.; Souza De Paula, B.; Spaan, B.; Spradlin, P.; Stagni, F.; Stahl, M.; Stahl, S.; Stefko, P.; Stefkova, S.; Steinkamp, O.; Stemmle, S.; Stenyakin, O.; Stepanova, M.; Stevens, H.; Stone, S.; Storaci, B.; Stracka, S.; Stramaglia, M. E.; Straticiuc, M.; Straumann, U.; Strokov, S.; Sun, J.; Sun, L.; Swientek, K.; Syropoulos, V.; Szumlak, T.; Szymanski, M.; T'Jampens, S.; Tayduganov, A.; Tekampe, T.; Tellarini, G.; Teubert, F.; Thomas, E.; van Tilburg, J.; Tilley, M. J.; Tisserand, V.; Tobin, M.; Tolk, S.; Tomassetti, L.; Tonelli, D.; Tourinho Jadallah Aoude, R.; Tournefier, E.; Traill, M.; Tran, M. T.; Tresch, M.; Trisovic, A.; Tsaregorodtsev, A.; Tsopelas, P.; Tully, A.; Tuning, N.; Ukleja, A.; Usachov, A.; Ustyuzhanin, A.; Uwer, U.; Vacca, C.; Vagner, A.; Vagnoni, V.; Valassi, A.; Valat, S.; Valenti, G.; Vazquez Gomez, R.; Vazquez Regueiro, P.; Vecchi, S.; van Veghel, M.; Velthuis, J. J.; Veltri, M.; Veneziano, G.; Venkateswaran, A.; Verlage, T. A.; Vernet, M.; Vesterinen, M.; Viana Barbosa, J. V.; Vieira, D.; Vieites Diaz, M.; Viemann, H.; Vilasis-Cardona, X.; Vitti, M.; Volkov, V.; Vollhardt, A.; Voneki, B.; Vorobyev, A.; Vorobyev, V.; Voß, C.; de Vries, J. A.; Vázquez Sierra, C.; Waldi, R.; Walsh, J.; Wang, J.; Wang, Y.; Ward, D. R.; Wark, H. M.; Watson, N. K.; Websdale, D.; Weiden, A.; Weisser, C.; Whitehead, M.; Wicht, J.; Wilkinson, G.; Wilkinson, M.; Williams, M.; Williams, M.; Williams, T.; Wilson, F. F.; Wimberley, J.; Winn, M.; Wishahi, J.; Wislicki, W.; Witek, M.; Wormser, G.; Wotton, S. A.; Wyllie, K.; Xie, Y.; Xu, M.; Xu, Q.; Xu, Z.; Xu, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yang, Z.; Yao, Y.; Yin, H.; Yu, J.; Yuan, X.; Yushchenko, O.; Zarebski, K. A.; Zavertyaev, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhelezov, A.; Zheng, Y.; Zhu, X.; Zhukov, V.; Zonneveld, J. B.; Zucchelli, S.; LHCb Collaboration

2018-06-01

A search for the rare decay Σ+→p μ+μ- is performed using p p collision data recorded by the LHCb experiment at center-of-mass energies √{s }=7 and 8 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3 fb-1. An excess of events is observed with respect to the background expectation, with a signal significance of 4.1 standard deviations. No significant structure is observed in the dimuon invariant mass distribution, in contrast with a previous result from the HyperCP experiment. The measured Σ+→p μ+μ- branching fraction is (2.2-1.3+1.8)×10-8 , where statistical and systematic uncertainties are included, which is consistent with the standard model prediction.

Facts and Figures. A Compendium of Statistics on Ontario Universities. Volume 4.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Council of Ontario Universities, Toronto.

The purpose of this compendium is to provide consistent and accurate statistical and graphical information on the Ontario (Canada) university system. The compendium consists of seven sections: (1) Ontario population data with population projections 1986-2021, median income by educational attainment 1985-1994, and unemployment rates by educational…

The space of ultrametric phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Gavryushkin, Alex; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-21

The reliability of a phylogenetic inference method from genomic sequence data is ensured by its statistical consistency. Bayesian inference methods produce a sample of phylogenetic trees from the posterior distribution given sequence data. Hence the question of statistical consistency of such methods is equivalent to the consistency of the summary of the sample. More generally, statistical consistency is ensured by the tree space used to analyse the sample. In this paper, we consider two standard parameterisations of phylogenetic time-trees used in evolutionary models: inter-coalescent interval lengths and absolute times of divergence events. For each of these parameterisations we introduce a natural metric space on ultrametric phylogenetic trees. We compare the introduced spaces with existing models of tree space and formulate several formal requirements that a metric space on phylogenetic trees must possess in order to be a satisfactory space for statistical analysis, and justify them. We show that only a few known constructions of the space of phylogenetic trees satisfy these requirements. However, our results suggest that these basic requirements are not enough to distinguish between the two metric spaces we introduce and that the choice between metric spaces requires additional properties to be considered. Particularly, that the summary tree minimising the square distance to the trees from the sample might be different for different parameterisations. This suggests that further fundamental insight is needed into the problem of statistical consistency of phylogenetic inference methods. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Do maladaptive behaviors exist at one or both ends of personality traits?

PubMed

Pettersson, Erik; Mendle, Jane; Turkheimer, Eric; Horn, Erin E; Ford, Derek C; Simms, Leonard J; Clark, Lee Anna

2014-06-01

In the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th ed.; American Psychiatric Association, 2013) personality disorder trait model, maladaptive behavior is located at one end of continuous scales. Widiger and colleagues, however, have argued that maladaptive behavior exists at both ends of trait continua. We propose that the role of evaluative variance differentiates these two perspectives and that once evaluation is isolated, maladaptive behaviors emerge at both ends of nonevaluative trait dimensions. In Study 1, we argue that evaluative variance is worthwhile to measure separately from descriptive content because it clusters items by valence regardless of content (e.g., lazy and workaholic; apathetic and anxious; gullible and paranoid; timid and hostile, etc.), which is unlikely to describe a consistent behavioral style. We isolate evaluation statistically (Study 2) and at the time of measurement (Study 3) to show that factors unrelated to valence evidence maladaptive behavior at both ends. We argue that nonevaluative factors, which display maladaptive behavior at both ends of continua, may better approximate ways in which individuals actually behave.

Will the US economy recover in 2010? A minimal spanning tree study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yiting; Lee, Gladys Hui Ting; Wong, Jian Cheng; Kok, Jun Liang; Prusty, Manamohan; Cheong, Siew Ann

2011-06-01

We calculated the cross correlations between the half-hourly times series of the ten Dow Jones US economic sectors over the period February 2000 to August 2008, the two-year intervals 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2008-2009, and also over 11 segments within the present financial crisis, to construct minimal spanning trees (MSTs) of the US economy at the sector level. In all MSTs, a core-fringe structure is found, with consumer goods, consumer services, and the industrials consistently making up the core, and basic materials, oil & gas, healthcare, telecommunications, and utilities residing predominantly on the fringe. More importantly, we find that the MSTs can be classified into two distinct, statistically robust, topologies: (i) star-like, with the industrials at the center, associated with low-volatility economic growth; and (ii) chain-like, associated with high-volatility economic crisis. Finally, we present statistical evidence, based on the emergence of a star-like MST in Sep 2009, and the MST staying robustly star-like throughout the Greek Debt Crisis, that the US economy is on track to a recovery.

Free-space optical communication through a forest canopy.

PubMed

Edwards, Clinton L; Davis, Christopher C

2006-01-01

We model the effects of the leaves of mature broadleaf (deciduous) trees on air-to-ground free-space optical communication systems operating through the leaf canopy. The concept of leaf area index (LAI) is reviewed and related to a probabilistic model of foliage consisting of obscuring leaves randomly distributed throughout a treetop layer. Individual leaves are opaque. The expected fractional unobscured area statistic is derived as well as the variance around the expected value. Monte Carlo simulation results confirm the predictions of this probabilistic model. To verify the predictions of the statistical model experimentally, a passive optical technique has been used to make measurements of observed sky illumination in a mature broadleaf environment. The results of the measurements, as a function of zenith angle, provide strong evidence for the applicability of the model, and a single parameter fit to the data reinforces a natural connection to LAI. Specific simulations of signal-to-noise ratio degradation as a function of zenith angle in a specific ground-to-unmanned aerial vehicle communication situation have demonstrated the effect of obscuration on performance.

The Effectiveness of Computer-Assisted Instruction to Teach Physical Examination to Students and Trainees in the Health Sciences Professions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Tomesko, Jennifer; Touger-Decker, Riva; Dreker, Margaret; Zelig, Rena; Parrott, James Scott

2017-01-01

To explore knowledge and skill acquisition outcomes related to learning physical examination (PE) through computer-assisted instruction (CAI) compared with a face-to-face (F2F) approach. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis published between January 2001 and December 2016 was conducted. Databases searched included Medline, Cochrane, CINAHL, ERIC, Ebsco, Scopus, and Web of Science. Studies were synthesized by study design, intervention, and outcomes. Statistical analyses included DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model. In total, 7 studies were included in the review, and 5 in the meta-analysis. There were no statistically significant differences for knowledge (mean difference [MD] = 5.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.05 to 12.84) or skill acquisition (MD = 0.35, 95% CI: -5.30 to 6.01). The evidence does not suggest a strong consistent preference for either CAI or F2F instruction to teach students/trainees PE. Further research is needed to identify conditions which examine knowledge and skill acquisition outcomes that favor one mode of instruction over the other.

Van Allen Probes observations of unusually low frequency whistler mode waves observed in association with moderate magnetic storms: Statistical study.

PubMed

Cattell, C A; Breneman, A W; Thaller, S A; Wygant, J R; Kletzing, C A; Kurth, W S

2015-09-28

We show the first evidence for locally excited chorus at frequencies below 0.1  f ce (electron cyclotron frequency) in the outer radiation belt. A statistical study of chorus during geomagnetic storms observed by the Van Allen Probes found that frequencies are often dramatically lower than expected. The frequency at peak power suddenly stops tracking the equatorial 0.5  f ce and f / f ce decreases rapidly, often to frequencies well below 0.1  f ce (in situ and mapped to equator). These very low frequency waves are observed both when the satellites are close to the equatorial plane and at higher magnetic latitudes. Poynting flux is consistent with generation at the equator. Wave amplitudes can be up to 20 to 40 mV/m and 2 to 4 nT. We conclude that conditions during moderate to large storms can excite unusually low frequency chorus, which is resonant with more energetic electrons than typical chorus, with critical implications for understanding radiation belt evolution.

Applying the Anderson-Darling test to suicide clusters: evidence of contagion at U. S. universities?

PubMed

MacKenzie, Donald W

2013-01-01

Suicide clusters at Cornell University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) prompted popular and expert speculation of suicide contagion. However, some clustering is to be expected in any random process. This work tested whether suicide clusters at these two universities differed significantly from those expected under a homogeneous Poisson process, in which suicides occur randomly and independently of one another. Suicide dates were collected for MIT and Cornell for 1990-2012. The Anderson-Darling statistic was used to test the goodness-of-fit of the intervals between suicides to distribution expected under the Poisson process. Suicides at MIT were consistent with the homogeneous Poisson process, while those at Cornell showed clustering inconsistent with such a process (p = .05). The Anderson-Darling test provides a statistically powerful means to identify suicide clustering in small samples. Practitioners can use this method to test for clustering in relevant communities. The difference in clustering behavior between the two institutions suggests that more institutions should be studied to determine the prevalence of suicide clustering in universities and its causes.

Effect of extended exposure to frequency-altered feedback on stuttering during reading and monologue.

PubMed

Armson, J; Stuart, A

1998-06-01

An ABA time series design was used to examine the effect of extended, continuous exposure to frequency-altered auditory feedback (FAF) during an oral reading and monologue task on stuttering frequency and speech rate. Twelve adults who stutter participated. A statistically significant decrease in number of stuttering events, an increase in number of syllables produced, and a decrease in percent stuttering was observed during the experimental segment relative to baseline segments for the oral reading task. In the monologue task, there were no statistically significant differences for the number of stuttering events, number of syllables produced, or percent stuttering between the experimental and baseline segments. Varying individual patterns of response to FAF were evident during the experimental segment of the reading task: a large consistent reduction in stuttering, an initial reduction followed by fluctuations in amount of stuttering, and essentially no change in stuttering frequency. Ten of 12 participants showed no reduction in stuttering frequency during the experimental segment of the monologue task. These findings have ramifications both for the clinical utilization of FAF and for theoretical explanations of fluency-enhancement.

The Effect of Student-Driven Projects on the Development of Statistical Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sovak, Melissa M.

2010-01-01

Research has shown that even if students pass a standard introductory statistics course, they often still lack the ability to reason statistically. Many instructional techniques for enhancing the development of statistical reasoning have been discussed, although there is often little to no experimental evidence that they produce effective results…

Debating Curricular Strategies for Teaching Statistics and Research Methods: What Does the Current Evidence Suggest?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barron, Kenneth E.; Apple, Kevin J.

2014-01-01

Coursework in statistics and research methods is a core requirement in most undergraduate psychology programs. However, is there an optimal way to structure and sequence methodology courses to facilitate student learning? For example, should statistics be required before research methods, should research methods be required before statistics, or…

Using Statistical Natural Language Processing for Understanding Complex Responses to Free-Response Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeMark, Sarah F.; Behrens, John T.

2004-01-01

Whereas great advances have been made in the statistical sophistication of assessments in terms of evidence accumulation and task selection, relatively little statistical work has explored the possibility of applying statistical techniques to data for the purposes of determining appropriate domain understanding and to generate task-level scoring…

Fostering Change in College Students' Statistical Reasoning and Motivation through Statistical Investigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramirez-Faghih, Caroline Ann

2012-01-01

The goal of this study was to examine the reciprocal relationship between statistical investigation and motivation of college students in a Mathematical Reasoning course (Math 1). Unlike previous studies in which students' projects or statistical investigations have been examined as the final product that shows evidence of statistical…

Tobacco Smoke and Risk of Childhood Acute Non-Lymphocytic Leukemia: Findings from the SETIL Study

PubMed Central

Mattioli, Stefano; Farioli, Andrea; Legittimo, Patrizia; Miligi, Lucia; Benvenuti, Alessandra; Ranucci, Alessandra; Salvan, Alberto; Rondelli, Roberto; Magnani, Corrado

2014-01-01

Background Parental smoking and exposure of the mother or the child to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) as risk factors for Acute non-Lymphocytic Leukemia (AnLL) were investigated. Methods Incident cases of childhood AnLL were enrolled in 14 Italian Regions during 1998–2001. We estimated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) conducting logistic regression models including 82 cases of AnLL and 1,044 controls. Inverse probability weighting was applied adjusting for: age; sex; provenience; birth order; birth weight; breastfeeding; parental educational level age, birth year, and occupational exposure to benzene. Results Paternal smoke in the conception period was associated with AnLL (OR for ≥11 cigarettes/day  = 1.79, 95% CI 1.01–3.15; P trend 0.05). An apparent effect modification by maternal age was identified: only children of mothers aged below 30 presented increased risks. We found weak statistical evidence of an association of AnLL with maternal exposure to ETS (OR for exposure>3 hours/day  = 1.85, 95%CI 0.97–3.52; P trend 0.07). No association was observed between AnLL and either maternal smoking during pregnancy or child exposure to ETS. Conclusions This study is consistent with the hypothesis that paternal smoke is associated with AnLL. We observed statistical evidence of an association between maternal exposure to ETS and AnLL, but believe bias might have inflated our estimates. PMID:25401754

Grey literature in meta-analyses.

PubMed

Conn, Vicki S; Valentine, Jeffrey C; Cooper, Harris M; Rantz, Marilyn J

2003-01-01

In meta-analysis, researchers combine the results of individual studies to arrive at cumulative conclusions. Meta-analysts sometimes include "grey literature" in their evidential base, which includes unpublished studies and studies published outside widely available journals. Because grey literature is a source of data that might not employ peer review, critics have questioned the validity of its data and the results of meta-analyses that include it. To examine evidence regarding whether grey literature should be included in meta-analyses and strategies to manage grey literature in quantitative synthesis. This article reviews evidence on whether the results of studies published in peer-reviewed journals are representative of results from broader samplings of research on a topic as a rationale for inclusion of grey literature. Strategies to enhance access to grey literature are addressed. The most consistent and robust difference between published and grey literature is that published research is more likely to contain results that are statistically significant. Effect size estimates of published research are about one-third larger than those of unpublished studies. Unfunded and small sample studies are less likely to be published. Yet, importantly, methodological rigor does not differ between published and grey literature. Meta-analyses that exclude grey literature likely (a) over-represent studies with statistically significant findings, (b) inflate effect size estimates, and (c) provide less precise effect size estimates than meta-analyses including grey literature. Meta-analyses should include grey literature to fully reflect the existing evidential base and should assess the impact of methodological variations through moderator analysis.

Non-Numeric Intrajudge Consistency Feedback in an Angoff Procedure

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harrison, George M.

2015-01-01

The credibility of standard-setting cut scores depends in part on two sources of consistency evidence: intrajudge and interjudge consistency. Although intrajudge consistency feedback has often been provided to Angoff judges in practice, more evidence is needed to determine whether it achieves its intended effect. In this randomized experiment with…

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life’s early emergence on Earth

PubMed Central

Spiegel, David S.; Turner, Edwin L.

2012-01-01

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a Bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a Bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth’s history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of Bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe. PMID:22198766

Sampling Assumptions Affect Use of Indirect Negative Evidence in Language Learning.

PubMed

Hsu, Anne; Griffiths, Thomas L

2016-01-01

A classic debate in cognitive science revolves around understanding how children learn complex linguistic patterns, such as restrictions on verb alternations and contractions, without negative evidence. Recently, probabilistic models of language learning have been applied to this problem, framing it as a statistical inference from a random sample of sentences. These probabilistic models predict that learners should be sensitive to the way in which sentences are sampled. There are two main types of sampling assumptions that can operate in language learning: strong and weak sampling. Strong sampling, as assumed by probabilistic models, assumes the learning input is drawn from a distribution of grammatical samples from the underlying language and aims to learn this distribution. Thus, under strong sampling, the absence of a sentence construction from the input provides evidence that it has low or zero probability of grammaticality. Weak sampling does not make assumptions about the distribution from which the input is drawn, and thus the absence of a construction from the input as not used as evidence of its ungrammaticality. We demonstrate in a series of artificial language learning experiments that adults can produce behavior consistent with both sets of sampling assumptions, depending on how the learning problem is presented. These results suggest that people use information about the way in which linguistic input is sampled to guide their learning.

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth.

PubMed

Spiegel, David S; Turner, Edwin L

2012-01-10

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth's history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe.

Sampling Assumptions Affect Use of Indirect Negative Evidence in Language Learning

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

A classic debate in cognitive science revolves around understanding how children learn complex linguistic patterns, such as restrictions on verb alternations and contractions, without negative evidence. Recently, probabilistic models of language learning have been applied to this problem, framing it as a statistical inference from a random sample of sentences. These probabilistic models predict that learners should be sensitive to the way in which sentences are sampled. There are two main types of sampling assumptions that can operate in language learning: strong and weak sampling. Strong sampling, as assumed by probabilistic models, assumes the learning input is drawn from a distribution of grammatical samples from the underlying language and aims to learn this distribution. Thus, under strong sampling, the absence of a sentence construction from the input provides evidence that it has low or zero probability of grammaticality. Weak sampling does not make assumptions about the distribution from which the input is drawn, and thus the absence of a construction from the input as not used as evidence of its ungrammaticality. We demonstrate in a series of artificial language learning experiments that adults can produce behavior consistent with both sets of sampling assumptions, depending on how the learning problem is presented. These results suggest that people use information about the way in which linguistic input is sampled to guide their learning. PMID:27310576

Network-based statistical comparison of citation topology of bibliographic databases

PubMed Central

Šubelj, Lovro; Fiala, Dalibor; Bajec, Marko

2014-01-01

Modern bibliographic databases provide the basis for scientific research and its evaluation. While their content and structure differ substantially, there exist only informal notions on their reliability. Here we compare the topological consistency of citation networks extracted from six popular bibliographic databases including Web of Science, CiteSeer and arXiv.org. The networks are assessed through a rich set of local and global graph statistics. We first reveal statistically significant inconsistencies between some of the databases with respect to individual statistics. For example, the introduced field bow-tie decomposition of DBLP Computer Science Bibliography substantially differs from the rest due to the coverage of the database, while the citation information within arXiv.org is the most exhaustive. Finally, we compare the databases over multiple graph statistics using the critical difference diagram. The citation topology of DBLP Computer Science Bibliography is the least consistent with the rest, while, not surprisingly, Web of Science is significantly more reliable from the perspective of consistency. This work can serve either as a reference for scholars in bibliometrics and scientometrics or a scientific evaluation guideline for governments and research agencies. PMID:25263231

Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Injury-Psychological Readiness to Return to Sport scale to Persian language.

PubMed

Naghdi, Soofia; Nakhostin Ansari, Noureddin; Farhadi, Yasaman; Ebadi, Safoora; Entezary, Ebrahim; Glazer, Douglas

2016-10-01

The aim of the present study was to develop and provide validation statistics for the Persian Injury-Psychological Readiness to Return to Sport scale (I-PRRS) following a cross-sectional and prospective cohort study design. The I-PRRS was forward/back-translated and culturally adapted into Persian language. The Persian I-PRRS was administered to 100 injured athletes (93 male; age 26.0 ± 5.6 years; time since injury 4.84 ± 6.4 months) and 50 healthy athletes (36 male; mean age 25.7 ± 6.0 years). The Persian I-PRRS was re-administered to 50 injured athletes at 1 week to examine test-retest reliability. There were no floor or ceiling effects confirming the content validity of Persian I-PRRS. The internal consistency reliability was good. Excellent test-retest reliability and agreement were demonstrated. The statistically significant difference in Persian I-PRRS total scores between the injured athletes and healthy athletes provides an evidence of discriminative validity. The Persian I-PRRS total scores were positively correlated with the Farsi Mood Scale (FARMS) total scores, showing construct validity. The principal component analysis indicated a two-factor solution consisting of "Confidence to play" and "Confidence in the injured body part and skill level". The Persian I-PRRS showed excellent reliability and validity and can be used to assess injured athletes' psychological readiness to return to sport among Persian-speaking populations.

Role of Depression, Anxiety and Stress in Patients with Oral Lichen Planus: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Kalkur, Chaithra; Sattur, Atul Prahlad; Guttal, Kruthika Satyabodh

2015-01-01

Context: Lichen planus is a psychosomatic disease. Higher frequency of psychiatric symptoms, poor quality of life, higher level of anxiety and neuroendocrine and immune dysregulations, all these factors, will enhance the exacerbation of the disease. Aims: The present study was to assess depression, anxiety and stress levels in patients with oral lichen planus. Materials and Methods: The psychometric evaluation using the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale (DASS)-42 questionnaire was carried out, by the same investigator on all members of group 1 (Oral Lichen Planus) and group 2 (Control). DASS-42 questionnaire consists of 42 symptoms divided into three subscales of 14 items: Depression scale, anxiety scale, and stress scale. Statistical Analysis Used: The Student t test was used to determine statistical difference for both the groups and to evaluate for significant relationships among variables. Results: Psychological assessment using DASS-42 reveals lichen planus patients showed higher frequency of psychiatric co morbidities like depression, anxiety and stress compared to control group. Conclusions: This study has provided evidence that the DASS-42 questionnaire is internally consistent and valid measures of depression, anxiety, and stress. Psychiatric evaluation can be considered for patients with oral lichen planus with routine treatment protocols are recommended. DASS-42 Questionnaire can also be used to determine the level of anxiety, stress and depression in diseases of the oral mucosa like recurrent apthous stomatitis, burning mouth syndrome and TMD disorders. PMID:26538689

Breaking the Vainshtein screening in clusters of galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salzano, Vincenzo; Mota, David F.; Capozziello, Salvatore; Donahue, Megan

2017-02-01

In this work we will test an alternative model of gravity belonging to the large family of Galileon models. It is characterized by an intrinsic breaking of the Vainshtein mechanism inside large astrophysical objects, thus having possibly detectable observational signatures. We will compare theoretical predictions from this model with the observed total mass profile for a sample of clusters of galaxies. The profiles are derived using two complementary tools: x-ray hot intracluster gas dynamics, and strong and weak gravitational lensing. We find that a dependence with the dynamical internal status of each cluster is possible; for those clusters which are very close to be relaxed, and thus less perturbed by possible astrophysical local processes, the Galileon model gives a quite good fit to both x-ray and lensing observations. Both masses and concentrations for the dark matter halos are consistent with earlier results found in numerical simulations and in the literature, and no compelling statistical evidence for a deviation from general relativity is detectable from the present observational state. Actually, the characteristic Galileon parameter ϒ is always consistent with zero, and only an upper limit (≲0.086 at 1 σ , ≲0.16 at 2 σ , and ≲0.23 at 3 σ ) can be established. Some interesting distinctive deviations might be operative, but the statistical validity of the results is far from strong, and better data would be needed in order to either confirm or reject a potential tension with general relativity.

Prophylactic accessory-pathway ablation in asymptomatic patients with a Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern.

PubMed

Ozenc, S; Iscen, S; Kibrisli, E; Tok, D; Parlak, A; Altinel, O; Altinel, S

2014-01-01

The optimal approach is controversial in asymptomatic patients who are coincidentally found to have evidence of an accessory pathway (AP) on an ECG. The risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) is low, and the risk of developing symptoms also appears to be low, although a wide range of incidences have been reported. In our trial, we tested the hypothesis that if prophylactic accessory-pathway ablation performed at the time of the initial electrophysiological testing would improve the long-term outcome in asymptomatic patients with a Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern. Recruitment of patients began on February 1, 2004, and ended on February 5, 2009. All 110 asymptomatic patients were hospitalized and underwent electrophysiological testing the same day to assess the inducibility of atrioventricular reciprocating tachycardia. The anterograde effective refractory period of the accessory pathway was defined as the longest coupling interval at which anterograde block in the bypass tract was observed. For the statistical analysis, the statistical software SPSS version 15.0 for Windows (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Of 110 asymptomatic patients with a Wolff-Parkinson-White electrocardiographic pattern, 80 patients were ablated. Ablation group consisted of these patients. Control group consisted of remaining 30 and were divided into two groups according to the anterograde effective refractory period of the accessory pathway. There was no significant difference between three groups in terms of arrhythmic events (p: 0.58). Asymptomatic patients with the Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome do not require prophylactic ablation, since they remain asymptomatic for many years.

Lessons to be Learned from Evidence-based Medicine: Practice and Promise of Evidence-based Medicine and Evidence-based Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolf, Fredric M.

2000-01-01

Presents statistics of deaths caused by medical errors and argues the effects of misconceptions in diagnosis and treatment. Suggests evidence-based medicine to enhance the quality of practice and minimize error rates. Presents 10 evidence-based lessons and discusses the possible benefits of evidence-based medicine to evidence-based education and…

Impact of Viral Status on Survival in Patients Receiving Sorafenib for Advanced Hepatocellular Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Phase III Trials.

PubMed

Jackson, Richard; Psarelli, Eftychia-Eirini; Berhane, Sarah; Khan, Harun; Johnson, Philip

2017-02-20

Purpose Following the Sorafenib Hepatocellular Carcinoma Assessment Randomized Protocol (SHARP) trial, sorafenib has become the standard of care for patients with advanced unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma, but the relation between survival advantage and disease etiology remains unclear. To address this, we undertook an individual patient data meta-analysis of three large prospective randomized trials in which sorafenib was the control arm. Methods Of a total of 3,256 patients, 1,643 (50%) who received sorafenib were available. The primary end point was overall survival (OS). A Bayesian hierarchical approach for individual patient data meta-analyses was applied using a piecewise exponential model. Results are presented in terms of hazard ratios comparing sorafenib with alternative therapies according to hepatitis C virus (HCV) or hepatitis B virus (HBV) status. Results Hazard ratios show improved OS for sorafenib in patients who are both HBV negative and HCV positive (log [hazard ratio], -0.27; 95% CI, -0.46 to -0.06). Median unadjusted survival is 12.6 (11.15 to 13.8) months for sorafenib and 10.2 (8.88 to 12.2) months for "other" treatments in this subgroup. There was no evidence of improvement in OS for any other patient subgroups defined by HBV and HCV. Results were consistent across all trials with heterogeneity assessed using Cochran's Q statistic. Conclusion There is consistent evidence that the effect of sorafenib on OS is dependent on patients' hepatitis status. There is an improved OS for patients negative for HBV and positive for HCV when treated with sorafenib. There was no evidence of any improvement in OS attributable to sorafenib for patients positive for HBV and negative for HCV.

Glyphosate rodent carcinogenicity bioassay expert panel review.

PubMed

Williams, Gary M; Berry, Colin; Burns, Michele; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Greim, Helmut

2016-09-01

Glyphosate has been rigorously and extensively tested for carcinogenicity by administration to mice (five studies) and to rats (nine studies). Most authorities have concluded that the evidence does not indicate a cancer risk to humans. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), however, evaluated some of the available data and concluded that glyphosate probably is carcinogenic to humans. The expert panel convened by Intertek assessed the findings used by IARC, as well as the full body of evidence and found the following: (1) the renal neoplastic effects in males of one mouse study are not associated with glyphosate exposure, because they lack statistical significance, strength, consistency, specificity, lack a dose-response pattern, plausibility, and coherence; (2) the strength of association of liver hemangiosarcomas in a different mouse study is absent, lacking consistency, and a dose-response effect and having in high dose males only a significant incidence increase which is within the historical control range; (3) pancreatic islet-cell adenomas (non-significant incidence increase), in two studies of male SD rats did not progress to carcinomas and lacked a dose-response pattern (the highest incidence is in the low dose followed by the high dose); (4) in one of two studies, a non-significant positive trend in the incidence of hepatocellular adenomas in male rats did not lead to progression to carcinomas; (5) in one of two studies, the non-significant positive trend in the incidence of thyroid C-cell adenomas in female rats was not present and there was no progression of adenomas to carcinomas at the end of the study. Application of criteria for causality considerations to the above mentioned tumor types and given the overall weight-of-evidence (WoE), the expert panel concluded that glyphosate is not a carcinogen in laboratory animals.

The National Environmental Respiratory Center (NERC) experiment in multi-pollutant air quality health research: III. Components of diesel and gasoline engine exhausts, hardwood smoke and simulated downwind coal emissions driving non-cancer biological responses in rodents.

PubMed

Mauderly, Joe L; Seilkop, Steven K

2014-09-01

An approach to identify causal components of complex air pollution mixtures was explored. Rats and mice were exposed by inhalation 6 h daily for 1 week or 6 months to dilutions of simulated downwind coal emissions, diesel and gasoline exhausts and wood smoke. Organ weights, hematology, serum chemistry, bronchoalveolar lavage, central vascular and respiratory allergic responses were measured. Multiple additive regression tree (MART) analysis of the combined database ranked 45 exposure (predictor) variables for importance to models best fitting 47 significant responses. Single-predictor concentration-response data were examined for evidence of single response functions across all exposure groups. Replication of the responses by the combined influences of the two most important predictors was tested. Statistical power was limited by inclusion of only four mixtures, albeit in multiple concentrations each and with particles removed for some groups. Results gave suggestive or strong evidence of causation of 19 of the 47 responses. The top two predictors of the 19 responses included only 12 organic and 6 inorganic species or classes. An increase in red blood cell count of rats by ammonia and pro-atherosclerotic vascular responses of mice by inorganic gases yielded the strongest evidence for causation and the best opportunity for confirmation. The former was a novel finding; the latter was consistent with other results. The results demonstrated the plausibility of identifying putative causal components of highly complex mixtures, given a database in which the ratios of the components are varied sufficiently and exposures and response measurements are conducted using a consistent protocol.

Intra-articular hyaluronic acid in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis: a Canadian evidence-based perspective

PubMed Central

Bhandari, Mohit; Bannuru, Raveendhara R.; Babins, Eric M.; Martel-Pelletier, Johanne; Khan, Moin; Raynauld, Jean-Pierre; Frankovich, Renata; Mcleod, Deanna; Devji, Tahira; Phillips, Mark; Schemitsch, Emil H.; Pelletier, Jean-Pierre

2017-01-01

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a chronic condition characterized by a loss of joint cartilage and is a major cause of disability in Canada, with an estimated CN$195 billion annual cost. Knee OA leads to persistent pain and loss of function, and treatment goals primarily focus on symptom relief and retention of function. Intra-articular hyaluronic acid (IAHA) has therapeutic benefits, and numerous recently published meta-analyses (MAs) and commentaries have highlighted new evidence on the role of IAHA therapy for knee OA. A diverse, multidisciplinary group of specialists met independently in closed sessions to review findings from eight MAs with literature search end dates no earlier than 2012 to address controversies surrounding IAHA therapy for mild-to-moderate knee OA within the Canadian treatment context. Outcomes from a total of eight MAs were reviewed, and consistent and statistically significant improvements in pain, function and stiffness up to 26 weeks were found with IAHA therapy compared with IA placebo or controls, regardless of MA size or trial quality. These findings are in line with those of a Cochrane review, another recent systematic review and patient satisfaction survey. Overall, three MAs reported outcomes based on molecular weight (MW), with the two reporting effect sizes showing significantly improved pain outcomes for higher compared with lower MW HAs. Recent evidence suggests that HA therapy is well tolerated with no increased risk of serious adverse events compared with placebo and the full therapeutic effect of IAHA therapy appears to have considerable clinical importance, consisting of the combined IA placebo and HA therapeutic effects. IAHA therapy is a well-tolerated and effective option for patients with mild-to-moderate knee OA failing first-line pharmacological therapy. PMID:28932293

Evidence-based guidelines: Improving AGREEment on consistence evaluation

PubMed Central

Vincenzi, Bruno; Napolitano, Andrea; Santini, Daniele; Maiello, Evaristo; Torri, Valter; Tonini, Giuseppe

2012-01-01

Modern clinical practice relies on evidence-based medicine (EBM) and evidence-based guidelines (EBGs). The critical evaluation of EBGs value is therefore an essential step to further improve clinical practice. In our opinion, correlating levels of evidence and grades of recommendation can be an easy tool to quickly display internal consistence of EBGs. PMID:26909252

Influence of environmental statistics on inhibition of saccadic return

PubMed Central

Farrell, Simon; Ludwig, Casimir J. H.; Ellis, Lucy A.; Gilchrist, Iain D.

2009-01-01

Initiating an eye movement is slowed if the saccade is directed to a location that has been fixated in the recent past. We show that this inhibitory effect is modulated by the temporal statistics of the environment: If a return location is likely to become behaviorally relevant, inhibition of return is absent. By fitting an accumulator model of saccadic decision-making, we show that the inhibitory effect and the sensitivity to local statistics can be dissociated in their effects on the rate of accumulation of evidence, and the threshold controlling the amount of evidence needed to generate a saccade. PMID:20080778

Implementation of Discovery Projects in Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bailey, Brad; Spence, Dianna J.; Sinn, Robb

2013-01-01

Researchers and statistics educators consistently suggest that students will learn statistics more effectively by conducting projects through which they actively engage in a broad spectrum of tasks integral to statistical inquiry, in the authentic context of a real-world application. In keeping with these findings, we share an implementation of…

Image-analysis library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

MATHPAC image-analysis library is collection of general-purpose mathematical and statistical routines and special-purpose data-analysis and pattern-recognition routines for image analysis. MATHPAC library consists of Linear Algebra, Optimization, Statistical-Summary, Densities and Distribution, Regression, and Statistical-Test packages.

Evidence and Clinical Trials.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goodman, Steven N.

1989-11-01

This dissertation explores the use of a mathematical measure of statistical evidence, the log likelihood ratio, in clinical trials. The methods and thinking behind the use of an evidential measure are contrasted with traditional methods of analyzing data, which depend primarily on a p-value as an estimate of the statistical strength of an observed data pattern. It is contended that neither the behavioral dictates of Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing methods, nor the coherency dictates of Bayesian methods are realistic models on which to base inference. The use of the likelihood alone is applied to four aspects of trial design or conduct: the calculation of sample size, the monitoring of data, testing for the equivalence of two treatments, and meta-analysis--the combining of results from different trials. Finally, a more general model of statistical inference, using belief functions, is used to see if it is possible to separate the assessment of evidence from our background knowledge. It is shown that traditional and Bayesian methods can be modeled as two ends of a continuum of structured background knowledge, methods which summarize evidence at the point of maximum likelihood assuming no structure, and Bayesian methods assuming complete knowledge. Both schools are seen to be missing a concept of ignorance- -uncommitted belief. This concept provides the key to understanding the problem of sampling to a foregone conclusion and the role of frequency properties in statistical inference. The conclusion is that statistical evidence cannot be defined independently of background knowledge, and that frequency properties of an estimator are an indirect measure of uncommitted belief. Several likelihood summaries need to be used in clinical trials, with the quantitative disparity between summaries being an indirect measure of our ignorance. This conclusion is linked with parallel ideas in the philosophy of science and cognitive psychology.

Observations on Three Endpoint Properties and Their Relationship to Regulatory Outcomes of European Oncology Marketing Applications

PubMed Central

Stolk, Pieter; McAuslane, James Neil; Schellens, Jan; Breckenridge, Alasdair M.; Leufkens, Hubert

2015-01-01

Background. Guidance and exploratory evidence indicate that the type of endpoints and the magnitude of their outcome can define a therapy’s clinical activity; however, little empirical evidence relates specific endpoint properties with regulatory outcomes. Materials and Methods. We explored the relationship of 3 endpoint properties to regulatory outcomes by assessing 50 oncology marketing authorization applications (MAAs; reviewed from 2009 to 2013). Results. Overall, 16 (32%) had a negative outcome. The most commonly used hard endpoints were overall survival (OS) and the duration of response or stable disease. OS was a component of 91% approved and 63% failed MAAs. The most commonly used surrogate endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), response rate, and health-related quality of life assessments. There was no difference (p = .3801) between the approved and failed MAA cohorts in the proportion of hard endpoints used. A mean of slightly more than four surrogate endpoints were used per approved MAA compared with slightly more than two for failed MAAs. Longer OS and PFS duration outcomes were generally associated with approvals, often when not statistically significant. The approved cohort was associated with a preponderance of statistically significant (p < .05) improvements in primary endpoints (p < .0001 difference between the approved and failed groups). Conclusion. Three key endpoint properties (type of endpoint [hard/surrogate], magnitude of an endpoint outcome, and its statistical significance) are consistent with the European Medicines Agency guidance and, notwithstanding the contribution of unique disease-specific circumstances, are associated with a predictable positive outcome for oncology MAAs. Implications for Practice: Regulatory decisions made by the European Medicines Agency determine which new medicines will be available to European prescribers and for which therapeutic indications. Regulatory success or failure can be influenced by many factors. This study assessed three key properties of endpoints used in preauthorization trials (type of endpoint [hard/surrogate], magnitude of endpoint outcome, and its statistical significance) and whether they are associated with a positive regulatory outcome. Clinicians can use these properties, which are described in the publicly available European public assessment reports, to help guide their understanding of the clinical effect of new oncologic therapies. PMID:25948678

Observations on Three Endpoint Properties and Their Relationship to Regulatory Outcomes of European Oncology Marketing Applications.

PubMed

Liberti, Lawrence; Stolk, Pieter; McAuslane, James Neil; Schellens, Jan; Breckenridge, Alasdair M; Leufkens, Hubert

2015-06-01

Guidance and exploratory evidence indicate that the type of endpoints and the magnitude of their outcome can define a therapy's clinical activity; however, little empirical evidence relates specific endpoint properties with regulatory outcomes. We explored the relationship of 3 endpoint properties to regulatory outcomes by assessing 50 oncology marketing authorization applications (MAAs; reviewed from 2009 to 2013). Overall, 16 (32%) had a negative outcome. The most commonly used hard endpoints were overall survival (OS) and the duration of response or stable disease. OS was a component of 91% approved and 63% failed MAAs. The most commonly used surrogate endpoints were progression-free survival (PFS), response rate, and health-related quality of life assessments. There was no difference (p = .3801) between the approved and failed MAA cohorts in the proportion of hard endpoints used. A mean of slightly more than four surrogate endpoints were used per approved MAA compared with slightly more than two for failed MAAs. Longer OS and PFS duration outcomes were generally associated with approvals, often when not statistically significant. The approved cohort was associated with a preponderance of statistically significant (p < .05) improvements in primary endpoints (p < .0001 difference between the approved and failed groups). Three key endpoint properties (type of endpoint [hard/surrogate], magnitude of an endpoint outcome, and its statistical significance) are consistent with the European Medicines Agency guidance and, notwithstanding the contribution of unique disease-specific circumstances, are associated with a predictable positive outcome for oncology MAAs. Regulatory decisions made by the European Medicines Agency determine which new medicines will be available to European prescribers and for which therapeutic indications. Regulatory success or failure can be influenced by many factors. This study assessed three key properties of endpoints used in preauthorization trials (type of endpoint [hard/surrogate], magnitude of endpoint outcome, and its statistical significance) and whether they are associated with a positive regulatory outcome. Clinicians can use these properties, which are described in the publicly available European public assessment reports, to help guide their understanding of the clinical effect of new oncologic therapies. ©AlphaMed Press.

Dementia revealed: novel chromosome 6 locus for late-onset Alzheimer disease provides genetic evidence for folate-pathway abnormalities.

PubMed

Naj, Adam C; Beecham, Gary W; Martin, Eden R; Gallins, Paul J; Powell, Eric H; Konidari, Ioanna; Whitehead, Patrice L; Cai, Guiqing; Haroutunian, Vahram; Scott, William K; Vance, Jeffery M; Slifer, Michael A; Gwirtsman, Harry E; Gilbert, John R; Haines, Jonathan L; Buxbaum, Joseph D; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A

2010-09-23

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) have consistently observed strong evidence of association with polymorphisms in APOE. However, until recently, variants at few other loci with statistically significant associations have replicated across studies. The present study combines data on 483,399 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from a previously reported GWAS of 492 LOAD cases and 496 controls and from an independent set of 439 LOAD cases and 608 controls to strengthen power to identify novel genetic association signals. Associations exceeding the experiment-wide significance threshold (alpha=1.03x10(-7)) were replicated in an additional 1,338 cases and 2,003 controls. As expected, these analyses unequivocally confirmed APOE's risk effect (rs2075650, P=1.9x10(-36)). Additionally, the SNP rs11754661 at 151.2 Mb of chromosome 6q25.1 in the gene MTHFD1L (which encodes the methylenetetrahydrofolate dehydrogenase (NADP+ dependent) 1-like protein) was significantly associated with LOAD (P=4.70x10(-8); Bonferroni-corrected P=0.022). Subsequent genotyping of SNPs in high linkage disequilibrium (r2>0.8) with rs11754661 identified statistically significant associations in multiple SNPs (rs803424, P=0.016; rs2073067, P=0.03; rs2072064, P=0.035), reducing the likelihood of association due to genotyping error. In the replication case-control set, we observed an association of rs11754661 in the same direction as the previous association at P=0.002 (P=1.90x10(-10) in combined analysis of discovery and replication sets), with associations of similar statistical significance at several adjacent SNPs (rs17349743, P=0.005; rs803422, P=0.004). In summary, we observed and replicated a novel statistically significant association in MTHFD1L, a gene involved in the tetrahydrofolate synthesis pathway. This finding is noteworthy, as MTHFD1L may play a role in the generation of methionine from homocysteine and influence homocysteine-related pathways and as levels of homocysteine are a significant risk factor for LOAD development.

Publication Bias in Antipsychotic Trials: An Analysis of Efficacy Comparing the Published Literature to the US Food and Drug Administration Database

PubMed Central

Turner, Erick H.; Knoepflmacher, Daniel; Shapley, Lee

2012-01-01

Background Publication bias compromises the validity of evidence-based medicine, yet a growing body of research shows that this problem is widespread. Efficacy data from drug regulatory agencies, e.g., the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), can serve as a benchmark or control against which data in journal articles can be checked. Thus one may determine whether publication bias is present and quantify the extent to which it inflates apparent drug efficacy. Methods and Findings FDA Drug Approval Packages for eight second-generation antipsychotics—aripiprazole, iloperidone, olanzapine, paliperidone, quetiapine, risperidone, risperidone long-acting injection (risperidone LAI), and ziprasidone—were used to identify a cohort of 24 FDA-registered premarketing trials. The results of these trials according to the FDA were compared with the results conveyed in corresponding journal articles. The relationship between study outcome and publication status was examined, and effect sizes derived from the two data sources were compared. Among the 24 FDA-registered trials, four (17%) were unpublished. Of these, three failed to show that the study drug had a statistical advantage over placebo, and one showed the study drug was statistically inferior to the active comparator. Among the 20 published trials, the five that were not positive, according to the FDA, showed some evidence of outcome reporting bias. However, the association between trial outcome and publication status did not reach statistical significance. Further, the apparent increase in the effect size point estimate due to publication bias was modest (8%) and not statistically significant. On the other hand, the effect size for unpublished trials (0.23, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.39) was less than half that for the published trials (0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.40 to 0.54), a difference that was significant. Conclusions The magnitude of publication bias found for antipsychotics was less than that found previously for antidepressants, possibly because antipsychotics demonstrate superiority to placebo more consistently. Without increased access to regulatory agency data, publication bias will continue to blur distinctions between effective and ineffective drugs. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22448149

A Framework for Assessing High School Students' Statistical Reasoning.

PubMed

Chan, Shiau Wei; Ismail, Zaleha; Sumintono, Bambang

2016-01-01

Based on a synthesis of literature, earlier studies, analyses and observations on high school students, this study developed an initial framework for assessing students' statistical reasoning about descriptive statistics. Framework descriptors were established across five levels of statistical reasoning and four key constructs. The former consisted of idiosyncratic reasoning, verbal reasoning, transitional reasoning, procedural reasoning, and integrated process reasoning. The latter include describing data, organizing and reducing data, representing data, and analyzing and interpreting data. In contrast to earlier studies, this initial framework formulated a complete and coherent statistical reasoning framework. A statistical reasoning assessment tool was then constructed from this initial framework. The tool was administered to 10 tenth-grade students in a task-based interview. The initial framework was refined, and the statistical reasoning assessment tool was revised. The ten students then participated in the second task-based interview, and the data obtained were used to validate the framework. The findings showed that the students' statistical reasoning levels were consistent across the four constructs, and this result confirmed the framework's cohesion. Developed to contribute to statistics education, this newly developed statistical reasoning framework provides a guide for planning learning goals and designing instruction and assessments.

A Framework for Assessing High School Students' Statistical Reasoning

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Based on a synthesis of literature, earlier studies, analyses and observations on high school students, this study developed an initial framework for assessing students’ statistical reasoning about descriptive statistics. Framework descriptors were established across five levels of statistical reasoning and four key constructs. The former consisted of idiosyncratic reasoning, verbal reasoning, transitional reasoning, procedural reasoning, and integrated process reasoning. The latter include describing data, organizing and reducing data, representing data, and analyzing and interpreting data. In contrast to earlier studies, this initial framework formulated a complete and coherent statistical reasoning framework. A statistical reasoning assessment tool was then constructed from this initial framework. The tool was administered to 10 tenth-grade students in a task-based interview. The initial framework was refined, and the statistical reasoning assessment tool was revised. The ten students then participated in the second task-based interview, and the data obtained were used to validate the framework. The findings showed that the students’ statistical reasoning levels were consistent across the four constructs, and this result confirmed the framework’s cohesion. Developed to contribute to statistics education, this newly developed statistical reasoning framework provides a guide for planning learning goals and designing instruction and assessments. PMID:27812091

Evaluating the consistency of gene sets used in the analysis of bacterial gene expression data.

PubMed

Tintle, Nathan L; Sitarik, Alexandra; Boerema, Benjamin; Young, Kylie; Best, Aaron A; Dejongh, Matthew

2012-08-08

Statistical analyses of whole genome expression data require functional information about genes in order to yield meaningful biological conclusions. The Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) are common sources of functionally grouped gene sets. For bacteria, the SEED and MicrobesOnline provide alternative, complementary sources of gene sets. To date, no comprehensive evaluation of the data obtained from these resources has been performed. We define a series of gene set consistency metrics directly related to the most common classes of statistical analyses for gene expression data, and then perform a comprehensive analysis of 3581 Affymetrix® gene expression arrays across 17 diverse bacteria. We find that gene sets obtained from GO and KEGG demonstrate lower consistency than those obtained from the SEED and MicrobesOnline, regardless of gene set size. Despite the widespread use of GO and KEGG gene sets in bacterial gene expression data analysis, the SEED and MicrobesOnline provide more consistent sets for a wide variety of statistical analyses. Increased use of the SEED and MicrobesOnline gene sets in the analysis of bacterial gene expression data may improve statistical power and utility of expression data.

Evicase: an evidence-based case structuring approach for personalized healthcare.

PubMed

Carmeli, Boaz; Casali, Paolo; Goldbraich, Anna; Goldsteen, Abigail; Kent, Carmel; Licitra, Lisa; Locatelli, Paolo; Restifo, Nicola; Rinott, Ruty; Sini, Elena; Torresani, Michele; Waks, Zeev

2012-01-01

The personalized medicine era stresses a growing need to combine evidence-based medicine with case based reasoning in order to improve the care process. To address this need we suggest a framework to generate multi-tiered statistical structures we call Evicases. Evicase integrates established medical evidence together with patient cases from the bedside. It then uses machine learning algorithms to produce statistical results and aggregators, weighted predictions, and appropriate recommendations. Designed as a stand-alone structure, Evicase can be used for a range of decision support applications including guideline adherence monitoring and personalized prognostic predictions.

The Content of Statistical Requirements for Authors in Biomedical Research Journals

PubMed Central

Liu, Tian-Yi; Cai, Si-Yu; Nie, Xiao-Lu; Lyu, Ya-Qi; Peng, Xiao-Xia; Feng, Guo-Shuang

2016-01-01

Background: Robust statistical designing, sound statistical analysis, and standardized presentation are important to enhance the quality and transparency of biomedical research. This systematic review was conducted to summarize the statistical reporting requirements introduced by biomedical research journals with an impact factor of 10 or above so that researchers are able to give statistical issues’ serious considerations not only at the stage of data analysis but also at the stage of methodological design. Methods: Detailed statistical instructions for authors were downloaded from the homepage of each of the included journals or obtained from the editors directly via email. Then, we described the types and numbers of statistical guidelines introduced by different press groups. Items of statistical reporting guideline as well as particular requirements were summarized in frequency, which were grouped into design, method of analysis, and presentation, respectively. Finally, updated statistical guidelines and particular requirements for improvement were summed up. Results: Totally, 21 of 23 press groups introduced at least one statistical guideline. More than half of press groups can update their statistical instruction for authors gradually relative to issues of new statistical reporting guidelines. In addition, 16 press groups, covering 44 journals, address particular statistical requirements. The most of the particular requirements focused on the performance of statistical analysis and transparency in statistical reporting, including “address issues relevant to research design, including participant flow diagram, eligibility criteria, and sample size estimation,” and “statistical methods and the reasons.” Conclusions: Statistical requirements for authors are becoming increasingly perfected. Statistical requirements for authors remind researchers that they should make sufficient consideration not only in regards to statistical methods during the research design, but also standardized statistical reporting, which would be beneficial in providing stronger evidence and making a greater critical appraisal of evidence more accessible. PMID:27748343

The Content of Statistical Requirements for Authors in Biomedical Research Journals.

PubMed

Liu, Tian-Yi; Cai, Si-Yu; Nie, Xiao-Lu; Lyu, Ya-Qi; Peng, Xiao-Xia; Feng, Guo-Shuang

2016-10-20

Robust statistical designing, sound statistical analysis, and standardized presentation are important to enhance the quality and transparency of biomedical research. This systematic review was conducted to summarize the statistical reporting requirements introduced by biomedical research journals with an impact factor of 10 or above so that researchers are able to give statistical issues' serious considerations not only at the stage of data analysis but also at the stage of methodological design. Detailed statistical instructions for authors were downloaded from the homepage of each of the included journals or obtained from the editors directly via email. Then, we described the types and numbers of statistical guidelines introduced by different press groups. Items of statistical reporting guideline as well as particular requirements were summarized in frequency, which were grouped into design, method of analysis, and presentation, respectively. Finally, updated statistical guidelines and particular requirements for improvement were summed up. Totally, 21 of 23 press groups introduced at least one statistical guideline. More than half of press groups can update their statistical instruction for authors gradually relative to issues of new statistical reporting guidelines. In addition, 16 press groups, covering 44 journals, address particular statistical requirements. The most of the particular requirements focused on the performance of statistical analysis and transparency in statistical reporting, including "address issues relevant to research design, including participant flow diagram, eligibility criteria, and sample size estimation," and "statistical methods and the reasons." Statistical requirements for authors are becoming increasingly perfected. Statistical requirements for authors remind researchers that they should make sufficient consideration not only in regards to statistical methods during the research design, but also standardized statistical reporting, which would be beneficial in providing stronger evidence and making a greater critical appraisal of evidence more accessible.

A Reanalysis of Curvature in the Dose Response for Cancer and Modifications by Age at Exposure Following Radiation Therapy for Benign Disease

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Little, Mark P., E-mail: mark.little@nih.gov; Stovall, Marilyn; Smith, Susan A.

Purpose: To assess the shape of the dose response for various cancer endpoints and modifiers by age and time. Methods and Materials: Reanalysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by cancer endpoint (stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia, all other). Results: There are statistically significant (P<.05) excess risks for all cancer and for lung cancer and borderline statistically significant risks for stomach cancer (P=.07), and leukemia (P=.06), with excess relative risks Gy{sup -1} of 0.024 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.011, 0.039), 0.559 (95% CI 0.221, 1.021), 0.042 (95% CI -0.002, 0.119), and 1.087 (95% CI -0.018,more » 4.925), respectively. There is statistically significant (P=.007) excess risk of pancreatic cancer when adjusted for dose-response curvature. General downward curvature is apparent in the dose response, statistically significant (P<.05) for all cancers, pancreatic cancer, and all other cancers (ie, other than stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia). There are indications of reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure (for all cancers, pancreatic cancer), but no evidence for quadratic variations in relative risk with age at exposure. If a linear-exponential dose response is used, there is no significant heterogeneity in the dose response among the 5 endpoints considered or in the speed of variation of relative risk with age at exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers. Conclusions: There are excess risks for various malignancies in this data set. Generally there is a marked downward curvature in the dose response and significant reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure. The consistency of risks with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.« less

Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

Bird-landscape relations in the Chihuahuan Desert: Coping with uncertainties about predictive models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutzwiller, K.J.; Barrow, W.C.

2001-01-01

During the springs of 1995-1997, we studied birds and landscapes in the Chihuahuan Desert along part of the Texas-Mexico border. Our objectives were to assess bird-landscape relations and their interannual consistency and to identify ways to cope with associated uncertainties that undermine confidence in using such relations in conservation decision processes. Bird distributions were often significantly associated with landscape features, and many bird-landscape models were valid and useful for predictive purposes. Differences in early spring rainfall appeared to influence bird abundance, but there was no evidence that annual differences in bird abundance affected model consistency. Model consistency for richness (42%) was higher than mean model consistency for 26 focal species (mean 30%, range 0-67%), suggesting that relations involving individual species are, on average, more subject to factors that cause variation than are richness-landscape relations. Consistency of bird-landscape relations may be influenced by such factors as plant succession, exotic species invasion, bird species' tolerances for environmental variation, habitat occupancy patterns, and variation in food density or weather. The low model consistency that we observed for most species indicates the high variation in bird-landscape relations that managers and other decision makers may encounter. The uncertainty of interannual variation in bird-landscape relations can be reduced by using projections of bird distributions from different annual models to determine the likely range of temporal and spatial variation in a species' distribution. Stochastic simulation models can be used to incorporate the uncertainty of random environmental variation into predictions of bird distributions based on bird-landscape relations and to provide probabilistic projections with which managers can weigh the costs and benefits of various decisions, Uncertainty about the true structure of bird-landscape relations (structural uncertainty) can be reduced by ensuring that models meet important statistical assumptions, designing studies with sufficient statistical power, validating the predictive ability of models, and improving model accuracy through continued field sampling and model fitting. Un certainty associated with sampling variation (partial observability) can be reduced by ensuring that sample sizes are large enough to provide precise estimates of both bird and landscape parameters. By decreasing the uncertainty due to partial observability, managers will improve their ability to reduce structural uncertainty.

The Manipulative Complexity of Lower Paleolithic Stone Toolmaking

PubMed Central

Faisal, Aldo; Stout, Dietrich; Apel, Jan; Bradley, Bruce

2010-01-01

Background Early stone tools provide direct evidence of human cognitive and behavioral evolution that is otherwise unavailable. Proper interpretation of these data requires a robust interpretive framework linking archaeological evidence to specific behavioral and cognitive actions. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we employ a data glove to record manual joint angles in a modern experimental toolmaker (the 4th author) replicating ancient tool forms in order to characterize and compare the manipulative complexity of two major Lower Paleolithic technologies (Oldowan and Acheulean). To this end we used a principled and general measure of behavioral complexity based on the statistics of joint movements. Conclusions/Significance This allowed us to confirm that previously observed differences in brain activation associated with Oldowan versus Acheulean technologies reflect higher-level behavior organization rather than lower-level differences in manipulative complexity. This conclusion is consistent with a scenario in which the earliest stages of human technological evolution depended on novel perceptual-motor capacities (such as the control of joint stiffness) whereas later developments increasingly relied on enhanced mechanisms for cognitive control. This further suggests possible links between toolmaking and language evolution. PMID:21072164

Astronomical Orientations of Bora Ceremonial Grounds in Southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuller, Robert S.; Hamacher, Duane W.; Norris, Ray P.

2013-12-01

Ethnographic evidence indicates that bora (initiation) ceremonial sites in southeast Australia, which typically comprise a pair of circles connected by a pathway, are symbolically reflected in the Milky Way as the 'Sky Bora'. This evidence also indicates that the position of the Sky Bora signifies the time of year when initiation ceremonies are held. We use archaeological data to test the hypothesis that southeast Australian bora grounds have a preferred orientation to the position of the Milky Way in the night sky in August, when the plane of the galaxy from Crux to Sagittarius is roughly vertical in the evening sky to the south-southwest. We accomplish this by measuring the orientations of 68 bora grounds using a combination of data from the archaeological literature, and site cards in the New South Wales Aboriginal Heritage Information Management System database. We find that bora grounds have a preferred orientation to the south and southwest, consistent with the Sky Bora hypothesis. Monte Carlo statistics show that these preferences were not the result of chance alignments, but were deliberate.

Work Stress and Altered Biomarkers: A Synthesis of Findings Based on the Effort-Reward Imbalance Model.

PubMed

Siegrist, Johannes; Li, Jian

2017-11-10

While epidemiological studies provide statistical evidence on associations of exposures such as stressful work with elevated risks of stress-related disorders (e.g., coronary heart disease or depression), additional information on biological pathways and biomarkers underlying these associations is required. In this contribution, we summarize the current state of the art on research findings linking stressful work, in terms of an established theoretical model-effort-reward imbalance-with a broad range of biomarkers. Based on structured electronic literature search and recent available systematic reviews, our synthesis of findings indicates that associations of work stress with heart rate variability, altered blood lipids, and risk of metabolic syndrome are rather consistent and robust. Significant relationships with blood pressure, heart rate, altered immune function and inflammation, cortisol release, and haemostatic biomarkers were also observed, but due to conflicting findings additional data will be needed to reach a firm conclusion. This narrative review of empirical evidence supports the argument that the biomarkers under study can act as mediators of epidemiologically established associations of work stress, as measured by effort-reward imbalance, with incident stress-related disorders.

Toward validation of a structural approach to conceptualizing psychopathology: A special section of the Journal of Abnormal Psychology.

PubMed

Krueger, Robert F; Tackett, Jennifer L; MacDonald, Angus

2016-11-01

Traditionally, psychopathology has been conceptualized in terms of polythetic categories derived from committee deliberations and enshrined in authoritative psychiatric nosologies-most notably the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM; American Psychiatric Association [APA], 2013). As the limitations of this form of classification have become evident, empirical data have been increasingly relied upon to investigate the structure of psychopathology. These efforts have borne fruit in terms of an increasingly consistent set of psychopathological constructs closely connected with similar personality constructs. However, the work of validating these constructs using convergent sources of data is an ongoing enterprise. This special section collects several new efforts to use structural approaches to study the validity of this empirically based organizational scheme for psychopathology. Inasmuch as a structural approach reflects the natural organization of psychopathology, it has great potential to facilitate comprehensive organization of information on the correlates of psychopathology, providing evidence for the convergent and discriminant validity of an empirical approach to classification. Here, we highlight several themes that emerge from this burgeoning literature. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Megabase-Scale Inversion Polymorphism in the Wild Ancestor of Maize

PubMed Central

Fang, Zhou; Pyhäjärvi, Tanja; Weber, Allison L.; Dawe, R. Kelly; Glaubitz, Jeffrey C.; González, José de Jesus Sánchez; Ross-Ibarra, Claudia; Doebley, John; Morrell, Peter L.; Ross-Ibarra, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

Chromosomal inversions are thought to play a special role in local adaptation, through dramatic suppression of recombination, which favors the maintenance of locally adapted alleles. However, relatively few inversions have been characterized in population genomic data. On the basis of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping across a large panel of Zea mays, we have identified an ∼50-Mb region on the short arm of chromosome 1 where patterns of polymorphism are highly consistent with a polymorphic paracentric inversion that captures >700 genes. Comparison to other taxa in Zea and Tripsacum suggests that the derived, inverted state is present only in the wild Z. mays subspecies parviglumis and mexicana and is completely absent in domesticated maize. Patterns of polymorphism suggest that the inversion is ancient and geographically widespread in parviglumis. Cytological screens find little evidence for inversion loops, suggesting that inversion heterozygotes may suffer few crossover-induced fitness consequences. The inversion polymorphism shows evidence of adaptive evolution, including a strong altitudinal cline, a statistical association with environmental variables and phenotypic traits, and a skewed haplotype frequency spectrum for inverted alleles. PMID:22542971

Theory and experimental evidence of phonon domains and their roles in pre-martensitic phenomena

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Yongmei M.; Wang, Yu U.; Ren, Yang

2015-12-01

Pre-martensitic phenomena, also called martensite precursor effects, have been known for decades while yet remain outstanding issues. This paper addresses pre-martensitic phenomena from new theoretical and experimental perspectives. A statistical mechanics-based Grüneisen-type phonon theory is developed. On the basis of deformation-dependent incompletely softened low-energy phonons, the theory predicts a lattice instability and pre-martensitic transition into elastic-phonon domains via 'phonon spinodal decomposition.' The phase transition lifts phonon degeneracy in cubic crystal and has a nature of phonon pseudo-Jahn-Teller lattice instability. The theory and notion of phonon domains consistently explain the ubiquitous pre-martensitic anomalies as natural consequences of incomplete phonon softening. The phonon domains are characterised by broken dynamic symmetry of lattice vibrations and deform through internal phonon relaxation in response to stress (a particular case of Le Chatelier's principle), leading to previously unexplored new domain phenomenon. Experimental evidence of phonon domains is obtained by in situ three-dimensional phonon diffuse scattering and Bragg reflection using high-energy synchrotron X-ray single-crystal diffraction, which observes exotic domain phenomenon fundamentally different from usual ferroelastic domain switching phenomenon. In light of the theory and experimental evidence of phonon domains and their roles in pre-martensitic phenomena, currently existing alternative opinions on martensitic precursor phenomena are revisited.

No evidence of somatotopic place of articulation feature mapping in motor cortex during passive speech perception.

PubMed

Arsenault, Jessica S; Buchsbaum, Bradley R

2016-08-01

The motor theory of speech perception has experienced a recent revival due to a number of studies implicating the motor system during speech perception. In a key study, Pulvermüller et al. (2006) showed that premotor/motor cortex differentially responds to the passive auditory perception of lip and tongue speech sounds. However, no study has yet attempted to replicate this important finding from nearly a decade ago. The objective of the current study was to replicate the principal finding of Pulvermüller et al. (2006) and generalize it to a larger set of speech tokens while applying a more powerful statistical approach using multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA). Participants performed an articulatory localizer as well as a speech perception task where they passively listened to a set of eight syllables while undergoing fMRI. Both univariate and multivariate analyses failed to find evidence for somatotopic coding in motor or premotor cortex during speech perception. Positive evidence for the null hypothesis was further confirmed by Bayesian analyses. Results consistently show that while the lip and tongue areas of the motor cortex are sensitive to movements of the articulators, they do not appear to preferentially respond to labial and alveolar speech sounds during passive speech perception.

Data free inference with processed data products

DOE PAGES

Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

2014-07-12

Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

Is chronic pain associated with somatization/hypochondriasis? An evidence-based structured review.

PubMed

Fishbain, David A; Lewis, John E; Gao, Jinrun; Cole, Brandly; Steele Rosomoff, R

2009-01-01

This is an evidence-based structured review. The objectives of this review were to answer the following questions: (1) Are somatization/hypochondriasis associated with chronic pain? (2) Is the degree of somatization/hypochondriasis related to pain levels? (3) Does pain treatment improve somatization/hypochondriasis? (4) Are some pain diagnoses differentially associated with somatization/hypochondriasis? Fifty-seven studies which fulfilled inclusion criteria and had high quality scores were sorted by the above-mentioned objectives. Agency for health care policy and research guidelines were utilized to type and characterize the strength/consistency of the study evidence within each objective. Somatization and hypochondriasis were both consistently associated with chronic pain (consistency ratings B and A, respectively). Study evidence indicated a correlation between pain intensity and presence of somatization and hypochondriasis (consistency rating A and B, respectively). Pain treatment improved somatization and hypochondriasis (consistency rating B and A, respectively). Some chronic pain diagnostic groups somatized more (consistency rating B). Somatization is commonly associated with chronic pain and may relate to pain levels.

A Geostatistical Scaling Approach for the Generation of Non Gaussian Random Variables and Increments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, Alberto; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Riva, Monica; Panzeri, Marco

2016-04-01

We address manifestations of non-Gaussian statistical scaling displayed by many variables, Y, and their (spatial or temporal) increments. Evidence of such behavior includes symmetry of increment distributions at all separation distances (or lags) with sharp peaks and heavy tails which tend to decay asymptotically as lag increases. Variables reported to exhibit such distributions include quantities of direct relevance to hydrogeological sciences, e.g. porosity, log permeability, electrical resistivity, soil and sediment texture, sediment transport rate, rainfall, measured and simulated turbulent fluid velocity, and other. No model known to us captures all of the documented statistical scaling behaviors in a unique and consistent manner. We recently proposed a generalized sub-Gaussian model (GSG) which reconciles within a unique theoretical framework the probability distributions of a target variable and its increments. We presented an algorithm to generate unconditional random realizations of statistically isotropic or anisotropic GSG functions and illustrated it in two dimensions. In this context, we demonstrated the feasibility of estimating all key parameters of a GSG model underlying a single realization of Y by analyzing jointly spatial moments of Y data and corresponding increments. Here, we extend our GSG model to account for noisy measurements of Y at a discrete set of points in space (or time), present an algorithm to generate conditional realizations of corresponding isotropic or anisotropic random field, and explore them on one- and two-dimensional synthetic test cases.

Preventing homicide: an evaluation of the efficacy of a Detroit gun ordinance.

PubMed Central

O'Carroll, P W; Loftin, C; Waller, J B; McDowall, D; Bukoff, A; Scott, R O; Mercy, J A; Wiersema, B

1991-01-01

BACKGROUND: In November 1986, a Detroit, Michigan city ordinance requiring mandatory jail sentences for illegally carrying a firearm in public was passed to preserve "the public peace, health, safety, and welfare of the people." METHODS: We conducted a set of interrupted time-series analyses to evaluate the impact of the law on the incidence of homicides, hypothesizing that the ordinance, by its nature, would affect only firearm homicides and homicides committed outside (e.g., on the street). RESULTS: The incidence of homicide in general increased after the law was passed, but the increases in non-firearm homicides and homicides committed inside (e.g., in a home) were either statistically significant or approached statistical significance (p = .006 and p = .070, respectively), whereas changes in the incidence of firearm homicides and homicides committed outside were not statistically significant (p = .238 and p = .418, respectively). We also determined that the ordinance was essentially unenforced, apparently because of a critical shortage of jail space. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are consistent with a model in which the ordinance had a dampening effect on firearm homicides occurring in public in Detroit. The apparent preventive effect evident in the time series analyses may have been due to publicity about the ordinance, whereas the small nature of the effect may have been due to the lack of enforcement. PMID:2014857

Do US metropolitan core counties have lower scope 1 and 2 CO2 emissions than less urbanized counties?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamayao, M. M.; Blackhurst, M. F.; Matthews, H. S.

2014-10-01

Recent sustainability research has focused on urban systems given their high share of environmental impacts and potential for centralized impact mitigation. Recent research emphasizes descriptive statistics from place-based case studies to argue for policy action. This limits the potential for general insights and decision support. Here, we implement generalized linear and multiple linear regression analyses to obtain more robust insights on the relationship between urbanization and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the US We used consistently derived county-level scope 1 and scope 2 GHG inventories for our response variable while predictor variables included dummy-coded variables for county geographic type (central, outlying, and nonmetropolitan), median household income, population density, and climate indices (heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD)). We find that there is not enough statistical evidence indicating per capita scope 1 and 2 emissions differ by geographic type, ceteris paribus. These results are robust for different assumed electricity emissions factors. We do find statistically significant differences in per capita emissions by sector for different county types, with transportation and residential emissions highest in nonmetropolitan (rural) counties, transportation emissions lowest in central counties, and commercial sector emissions highest in central counties. These results indicate the importance of regional land use and transportation dynamics when planning local emissions mitigation measures.

Regional effects of agricultural conservation practices on nutrient transport in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Ana Maria.; Alexander, Richard B.; Arnold, Jeffrey G.; Norfleet, Lee; White, Michael J.; Robertson, Dale M.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

2016-01-01

Despite progress in the implementation of conservation practices, related improvements in water quality have been challenging to measure in larger river systems. In this paper we quantify these downstream effects by applying the empirical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality model SPARROW to investigate whether spatial differences in conservation intensity were statistically correlated with variations in nutrient loads. In contrast to other forms of water quality data analysis, the application of SPARROW controls for confounding factors such as hydrologic variability, multiple sources and environmental processes. A measure of conservation intensity was derived from the USDA-CEAP regional assessment of the Upper Mississippi River and used as an explanatory variable in a model of the Upper Midwest. The spatial pattern of conservation intensity was negatively correlated (p = 0.003) with the total nitrogen loads in streams in the basin. Total phosphorus loads were weakly negatively correlated with conservation (p = 0.25). Regional nitrogen reductions were estimated to range from 5 to 34% and phosphorus reductions from 1 to 10% in major river basins of the Upper Mississippi region. The statistical associations between conservation and nutrient loads are consistent with hydrological and biogeochemical processes such as denitrification. The results provide empirical evidence at the regional scale that conservation practices have had a larger statistically detectable effect on nitrogen than on phosphorus loadings in streams and rivers of the Upper Mississippi Basin.

Regional Effects of Agricultural Conservation Practices on Nutrient Transport in the Upper Mississippi River Basin.

PubMed

García, Ana María; Alexander, Richard B; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Norfleet, Lee; White, Michael J; Robertson, Dale M; Schwarz, Gregory

2016-07-05

Despite progress in the implementation of conservation practices, related improvements in water quality have been challenging to measure in larger river systems. In this paper we quantify these downstream effects by applying the empirical U.S. Geological Survey water-quality model SPARROW to investigate whether spatial differences in conservation intensity were statistically correlated with variations in nutrient loads. In contrast to other forms of water quality data analysis, the application of SPARROW controls for confounding factors such as hydrologic variability, multiple sources and environmental processes. A measure of conservation intensity was derived from the USDA-CEAP regional assessment of the Upper Mississippi River and used as an explanatory variable in a model of the Upper Midwest. The spatial pattern of conservation intensity was negatively correlated (p = 0.003) with the total nitrogen loads in streams in the basin. Total phosphorus loads were weakly negatively correlated with conservation (p = 0.25). Regional nitrogen reductions were estimated to range from 5 to 34% and phosphorus reductions from 1 to 10% in major river basins of the Upper Mississippi region. The statistical associations between conservation and nutrient loads are consistent with hydrological and biogeochemical processes such as denitrification. The results provide empirical evidence at the regional scale that conservation practices have had a larger statistically detectable effect on nitrogen than on phosphorus loadings in streams and rivers of the Upper Mississippi Basin.

A re-examination of the effects of biased lineup instructions in eyewitness identification.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E

2005-10-01

A meta-analytic review of research comparing biased and unbiased instructions in eyewitness identification experiments showed an asymmetry; specifically, that biased instructions led to a large and consistent decrease in accuracy in target-absent lineups, but produced inconsistent results for target-present lineups, with an average effect size near zero (Steblay, 1997). The results for target-present lineups are surprising, and are inconsistent with statistical decision theories (i.e., Green & Swets, 1966). A re-examination of the relevant studies and the meta-analysis of those studies shows clear evidence that correct identification rates do increase with biased lineup instructions, and that biased witnesses make correct identifications at a rate considerably above chance. Implications for theory, as well as police procedure and policy, are discussed.

A re-examination of the effects of biased lineup instructions in eyewitness identification.

PubMed

Clark, Steven E

2005-08-01

A meta-analytic review of research comparing biased and unbiased instructions in eyewitness identification experiments showed an asymmetry, specifically that biased instructions led to a large and consistent decrease in accuracy in target-absent lineups, but produced inconsistent results for target-present lineups, with an average effect size near zero (N. M. Steblay, 1997). The results for target-present lineups are surprising, and are inconsistent with statistical decision theories (i.e., D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966). A re-examination of the relevant studies and the meta-analysis of those studies shows clear evidence that correct identification rates do increase with biased lineup instructions, and that biased witnesses make correct identifications at a rate considerably above chance. Implications for theory, as well as police procedure and policy, are discussed.

Aromatherapy and behaviour disturbances in dementia: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Smallwood, J; Brown, R; Coulter, F; Irvine, E; Copland, C

2001-10-01

A random controlled trial of the relaxing effects of an aromatherapy massage on disordered behaviour in dementia was conducted. Twenty-one patients were randomly allocated into one of three conditions, aromatherapy and massage (AM), conversation and aromatherapy (CA) and massage only (M). AM showed the greatest reduction in the frequency of excessive motor behaviour of all three conditions. This reached statistical significance between the hours of three and four pm (p < 0.05). Post hoc analysis suggested that at this time of day the AM consistently reduced motor behaviour when compared with CA (p = 0.05). This provides preliminary evidence of a measurable sedative effect of aromatherapy massage on dementia within a robust scientific paradigm. Further research is recommended with an expanded sample size. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On the incremental validity of irrational beliefs to predict subjective well-being while controlling for personality factors.

PubMed

Spörrle, Matthias; Strobel, Maria; Tumasjan, Andranik

2010-11-01

This research examines the incremental validity of irrational thinking as conceptualized by Albert Ellis to predict diverse aspects of subjective well-being while controlling for the influence of personality factors. Rational-emotive behavior therapy (REBT) argues that irrational beliefs result in maladaptive emotions leading to reduced well-being. Although there is some early scientific evidence for this relation, it has never been investigated whether this connection would still persist when statistically controlling for the Big Five personality factors, which were consistently found to be important determinants of well-being. Regression analyses revealed significant incremental validity of irrationality over personality factors when predicting life satisfaction, but not when predicting subjective happiness. Results are discussed with respect to conceptual differences between these two aspects of subjective well-being.

Factors affecting job satisfaction in nurse faculty: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Gormley, Denise K

2003-04-01

Evidence in the literature suggests job satisfaction can make a difference in keeping qualified workers on the job, but little research has been conducted focusing specifically on nursing faculty. Several studies have examined nurse faculty satisfaction in relationship to one or two influencing factors. These factors include professional autonomy, leader role expectations, organizational climate, perceived role conflict and role ambiguity, leadership behaviors, and organizational characteristics. This meta-analysis attempts to synthesize the various studies conducted on job satisfaction in nursing faculty and analyze which influencing factors have the greatest effect. The procedure used for this meta-analysis consisted of reviewing studies to identify factors influencing job satisfaction, research questions, sample size reported, instruments used for measurement of job satisfaction and influencing factors, and results of statistical analysis.

Stationarity of extreme bursts in the solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moloney, N. R.; Davidsen, J.

2014-05-01

Recent results have suggested that the statistics of bursts in the solar wind vary with solar cycle. Here, we show that this variation is basically absent if one considers extreme bursts. These are defined as threshold-exceeding events over the range of high thresholds for which their number decays as a power law. In particular, we find that the distribution of duration times and energies of extreme bursts in the solar wind ɛ parameter and similar observables are independent of the solar cycle and in this sense stationary, and show robust asymptotic power laws with exponents that are independent of the specific threshold. This is consistent with what has been observed for solar flares and, thus, provides evidence in favor of a link between solar flares and extreme bursts in the solar wind.

Direct and moderating effects of community context on the psychological well-being of African American women.

PubMed

Cutrona, C E; Russell, D W; Hessling, R M; Brown, P A; Murry, V

2000-12-01

The effects of community characteristics on well-being were examined among 709 African American women. Direct and moderating effects of neighborhood characteristics on distress were tested. Aggregate-level ratings of neighborhood cohesion and disorder were significantly related to distress, although the relation between cohesion and distress became nonsignificant when individual risk factors were statistically controlled. Aggregate-level neighborhood variables interacted significantly with individual risk and resource variables in the prediction of distress, consistent with trait-situation interaction theories (D. Magnusson & N. S. Endler, 1977). Community cohesion intensified the benefits of a positive life outlook. Community disorder intensified both the benefits of personal resources and the detrimental effects of personal risk factors. Results showed evidence of resilience among African American women.

Direct and Moderating Effects of Community Context on the Psychological Well-Being of African American Women

PubMed Central

Cutrona, Carolyn E.; Russell, Daniel W.; Hessling, Robert M.; Brown, P. Adama; Murry, Velma

2007-01-01

The effects of community characteristics on well-being were examined among 709 African American women. Direct and moderating effects of neighborhood characteristics on distress were tested. Aggregate-level ratings of neighborhood cohesion and disorder were significantly related to distress, although the relation between cohesion and distress became nonsignificant when individual risk factors were statistically controlled. Aggregate-level neighborhood variables interacted significantly with individual risk and resource variables in the prediction of distress, consistent with trait-situation interaction theories (D. Magnusson & N. S. Endler, 1977). Community cohesion intensified the benefits of a positive life outlook. Community disorder intensified both the benefits of personal resources and the detrimental effects of personal risk factors. Results showed evidence of resilience among African American women. PMID:11138756

The Third BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Catalog

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meegan, Charles A.; Pendleton, Geoffrey N.; Briggs, Michael S.; Kouveliotou, Chryssa; Koshut, Thomas M.; Lestrade, John Patrick; Paciesas, William S.; McCollough, Michael L.; Brainerd, Jerome J.; Horack, John M.;

Seven tenths incorrect: heterogeneity and change in the waist-to-hip ratios of Playboy centerfold models and Miss America pageant winners.

PubMed

Freese, Jeremy; Meland, Sheri

2002-05-01

Drawing on an article by Singh (1993), many discussions of the evolutionary psychology of heterosexual male preferences have reported a remarkable consistency in the waist-to-hip ratios of Playboy centerfold models and Miss America pageant winners over time. We reexamine the measurement data on these American beauty icons and show that these reports are false in several ways. First, the variation in waist-to-hip ratios among these women is greater than reported. Second, the center of the distribution of waist-to-hip ratios is not 0.70, but less than this. Third, the average waist-to-hip ratio within both samples has changed over time in a manner that is statistically significant and can be regarded as mutually consistent. Taken together, the findings undermine some of the evidence given for the repeated suggestion that there is something special--evolutionarily hard-wired or otherwise--about a specific female waist-to-hip ratio of 0.70 as a preference of American heterosexual males.

Pedophilia: an evaluation of diagnostic and risk prediction methods.

PubMed

Wilson, Robin J; Abracen, Jeffrey; Looman, Jan; Picheca, Janice E; Ferguson, Meaghan

2011-06-01

One hundred thirty child sexual abusers were diagnosed using each of following four methods: (a) phallometric testing, (b) strict application of Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th ed., text revision [DSM-IV-TR]) criteria, (c) Rapid Risk Assessment of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR) scores, and (d) "expert" diagnoses rendered by a seasoned clinician. Comparative utility and intermethod consistency of these methods are reported, along with recidivism data indicating predictive validity for risk management. Results suggest that inconsistency exists in diagnosing pedophilia, leading to diminished accuracy in risk assessment. Although the RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR methods were significantly correlated with expert ratings, RRASOR and DSM-IV-TR were unrelated to each other. Deviant arousal was not associated with any of the other methods. Only the expert ratings and RRASOR scores were predictive of sexual recidivism. Logistic regression analyses showed that expert diagnosis did not add to prediction of sexual offence recidivism over and above RRASOR alone. Findings are discussed within a context of encouragement of clinical consistency and evidence-based practice regarding treatment and risk management of those who sexually abuse children.

Systematic review of studies on measurement properties of instruments for adults published in the American Journal of Occupational Therapy, 2009-2013.

PubMed

Yuen, Hon K; Austin, Sarah L

2014-01-01

We describe the methodological quality of recent studies on instrument development and testing published in the American Journal of Occupational Therapy (AJOT). We conducted a systematic review using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health status Measurement INstruments (COSMIN) checklist to appraise 48 articles on measurement properties of assessments for adults published in AJOT between 2009 and 2013. Most studies had adequate methodological quality in design and statistical analysis. Common methodological limitations included that methods used to examine internal consistency were not consistently linked to the theoretical constructs underpinning assessments; participants in some test-retest reliability studies were not stable during the interim period; and in several studies of reliability and convergent validity, sample sizes were inadequate. AJOT's dissemination of psychometric research evidence has made important contributions to moving the profession toward the American Occupational Therapy Association's Centennial Vision. This study's results provide a benchmark by which to evaluate future accomplishments. Copyright © 2014 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

Flexibility in Statistical Word Segmentation: Finding Words in Foreign Speech

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Graf Estes, Katharine; Gluck, Stephanie Chen-Wu; Bastos, Carolina

2015-01-01

The present experiments investigated the flexibility of statistical word segmentation. There is ample evidence that infants can use statistical cues (e.g., syllable transitional probabilities) to segment fluent speech. However, it is unclear how effectively infants track these patterns in unfamiliar phonological systems. We examined whether…

Statistical Learning of Phonetic Categories: Insights from a Computational Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McMurray, Bob; Aslin, Richard N.; Toscano, Joseph C.

2009-01-01

Recent evidence (Maye, Werker & Gerken, 2002) suggests that statistical learning may be an important mechanism for the acquisition of phonetic categories in the infant's native language. We examined the sufficiency of this hypothesis and its implications for development by implementing a statistical learning mechanism in a computational model…

Dangerous "spin": the probability myth of evidence-based prescribing - a Merleau-Pontyian approach.

PubMed

Morstyn, Ron

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to examine logical positivist statistical probability statements used to support and justify "evidence-based" prescribing rules in psychiatry when viewed from the major philosophical theories of probability, and to propose "phenomenological probability" based on Maurice Merleau-Ponty's philosophy of "phenomenological positivism" as a better clinical and ethical basis for psychiatric prescribing. The logical positivist statistical probability statements which are currently used to support "evidence-based" prescribing rules in psychiatry have little clinical or ethical justification when subjected to critical analysis from any of the major theories of probability and represent dangerous "spin" because they necessarily exclude the individual , intersubjective and ambiguous meaning of mental illness. A concept of "phenomenological probability" founded on Merleau-Ponty's philosophy of "phenomenological positivism" overcomes the clinically destructive "objectivist" and "subjectivist" consequences of logical positivist statistical probability and allows psychopharmacological treatments to be appropriately integrated into psychiatric treatment.

Evaluation of the statistical evidence for Characteristic Earthquakes in the frequency-magnitude distributions of Sumatra and other subduction zone regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, M.; Main, I. G.; Greenhough, J.; Bell, A. F.; McCloskey, J.

2009-04-01

The Sumatran Boxing Day earthquake and subsequent large events provide an opportunity to re-evaluate the statistical evidence for characteristic earthquake events in frequency-magnitude distributions. Our aims are to (i) improve intuition regarding the properties of samples drawn from power laws, (ii) illustrate using random samples how appropriate Poisson confidence intervals can both aid the eye and provide an appropriate statistical evaluation of data drawn from power-law distributions, and (iii) apply these confidence intervals to test for evidence of characteristic earthquakes in subduction-zone frequency-magnitude distributions. We find no need for a characteristic model to describe frequency magnitude distributions in any of the investigated subduction zones, including Sumatra, due to an emergent skew in residuals of power law count data at high magnitudes combined with a sample bias for examining large earthquakes as candidate characteristic events.

Statistical Policy Working Paper 25. Data Editing Workshop and Exposition

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-12-01

Statistical Policy Working Paper 25 is the written record of the Data Editing Workshop and Exposition held March 22, 1996, at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Conference and Training Center. The program consisted of 44 oral presentations and 19 s...

A bibliometric analysis of statistical terms used in American Physical Therapy Association journals (2011-2012): evidence for educating physical therapists.

PubMed

Tilson, Julie K; Marshall, Katie; Tam, Jodi J; Fetters, Linda

2016-04-22

A primary barrier to the implementation of evidence based practice (EBP) in physical therapy is therapists' limited ability to understand and interpret statistics. Physical therapists demonstrate limited skills and report low self-efficacy for interpreting results of statistical procedures. While standards for physical therapist education include statistics, little empirical evidence is available to inform what should constitute such curricula. The purpose of this study was to conduct a census of the statistical terms and study designs used in physical therapy literature and to use the results to make recommendations for curricular development in physical therapist education. We conducted a bibliometric analysis of 14 peer-reviewed journals associated with the American Physical Therapy Association over 12 months (Oct 2011-Sept 2012). Trained raters recorded every statistical term appearing in identified systematic reviews, primary research reports, and case series and case reports. Investigator-reported study design was also recorded. Terms representing the same statistical test or concept were combined into a single, representative term. Cumulative percentage was used to identify the most common representative statistical terms. Common representative terms were organized into eight categories to inform curricular design. Of 485 articles reviewed, 391 met the inclusion criteria. These 391 articles used 532 different terms which were combined into 321 representative terms; 13.1 (sd = 8.0) terms per article. Eighty-one representative terms constituted 90% of all representative term occurrences. Of the remaining 240 representative terms, 105 (44%) were used in only one article. The most common study design was prospective cohort (32.5%). Physical therapy literature contains a large number of statistical terms and concepts for readers to navigate. However, in the year sampled, 81 representative terms accounted for 90% of all occurrences. These "common representative terms" can be used to inform curricula to promote physical therapists' skills, competency, and confidence in interpreting statistics in their professional literature. We make specific recommendations for curriculum development informed by our findings.

Systematic review of peer education intervention programmes among individuals with type 2 diabetes.

PubMed

Gatlin, Tricia K; Serafica, Reimund; Johnson, Michael

2017-12-01

To systematically review published randomised controlled trials of peer education interventions among adults with type 2 diabetes. Systematic reviews have shown mixed results for peer support interventions to improve diabetes self-management. Given the effectiveness of diabetes education by healthcare professionals, peer education interventions may be a useful alternative approach. This review addressed that gap. Systematic review. A systematic search of published randomised controlled trials between 2006-2016 was conducted using the keywords diabetes, type 2 diabetes, randomised controlled trials, self-management, peer education and peer support. The methodological quality of each study was assessed using the Jadad scale. Seven studies were included in the final review, and the Jadad scores ranged from 8-10 of a possible 13 points. There was no consistent design, setting, or outcome measurement among the studies. There were two types of peer education interventions compared to traditional diabetes education: face-to-face or a combination of face-to-face and telephone/texting. The most common clinical outcome measure was HbA1c. Two of six studies showed statistically significant improvement in HbA1c between intervention and control groups. An increase in diabetes knowledge was also statistically significant in two of five studies. Peer education could be successful in improving clinical outcomes. No evidence was found indicating that healthcare provider education was superior in regard to clinical knowledge or behavioural or psychological outcome measures than peer education. HbA1c was statistically significantly lower in some peer education groups compared to control groups. There is evidence that peer education can be useful in achieving positive clinical outcomes such as decreasing HbA1c levels and increasing diabetes knowledge. A certified diabetes educator or a trained healthcare professional should not be overlooked though when using peer educators. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Examining the Reproducibility of 6 Published Studies in Public Health Services and Systems Research.

PubMed

Harris, Jenine K; B Wondmeneh, Sarah; Zhao, Yiqiang; Leider, Jonathon P

2018-02-23

Research replication, or repeating a study de novo, is the scientific standard for building evidence and identifying spurious results. While replication is ideal, it is often expensive and time consuming. Reproducibility, or reanalysis of data to verify published findings, is one proposed minimum alternative standard. While a lack of research reproducibility has been identified as a serious and prevalent problem in biomedical research and a few other fields, little work has been done to examine the reproducibility of public health research. We examined reproducibility in 6 studies from the public health services and systems research subfield of public health research. Following the methods described in each of the 6 papers, we computed the descriptive and inferential statistics for each study. We compared our results with the original study results and examined the percentage differences in descriptive statistics and differences in effect size, significance, and precision of inferential statistics. All project work was completed in 2017. We found consistency between original and reproduced results for each paper in at least 1 of the 4 areas examined. However, we also found some inconsistency. We identified incorrect transcription of results and omitting detail about data management and analyses as the primary contributors to the inconsistencies. Increasing reproducibility, or reanalysis of data to verify published results, can improve the quality of science. Researchers, journals, employers, and funders can all play a role in improving the reproducibility of science through several strategies including publishing data and statistical code, using guidelines to write clear and complete methods sections, conducting reproducibility reviews, and incentivizing reproducible science.

Association between androgenetic alopecia and coronary artery disease in young male patients.

PubMed

Sharma, Kamal H; Jindal, Anchal

2014-01-01

Several studies have demonstrated an association between androgenetic alopecia (AGA) and cardiovascular disease. Still controversies exist regarding the association. Are they truly associated? The purpose of the present study was to assess the prevalence of AGA and establish its association in young (<45 years) Asian Indian Gujarati male patients having coronary artery disease (CAD). Case-control prospective multicentric study was carried out on 424 men. Case group consisted of 212 male subjects having CAD (Group 1) and another 212, either sibling or first degree male relative of the case subjects (having no evidence of CAD) were considered as the control group (Group 2). Age, total cholesterol, incidence of diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were similar in both groups. The degree of alopecia was assessed using the Norwood-Hamilton scale for men. Statistical analysis was performed using Chi-square test. AGA was found in 80 (37.73%) young CAD patients (Group 1), whereas 44 (20.7%) of patients had alopecia in the control group (Group 2). There was statistically significant association between male AGA and CAD (P = 0.001). Odds ratio was 2.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.72 ± 4.26). Statistically significant association was found between high grade baldness (Grades IV-VII) and CAD in young men (P < 0.05). Odds ratio = 2.36 (95% CI, 1.108 ± 5.033). There is statistically significant association of AGA in young Asian Gujarati male with CAD and the prevalence of AGA in young CAD patient is 37.73%. This study implies early onset AGA in male is independently associated with CAD, though mechanisms need to be investigated.

Acceptance Probability (P a) Analysis for Process Validation Lifecycle Stages.

PubMed

Alsmeyer, Daniel; Pazhayattil, Ajay; Chen, Shu; Munaretto, Francesco; Hye, Maksuda; Sanghvi, Pradeep

2016-04-01

This paper introduces an innovative statistical approach towards understanding how variation impacts the acceptance criteria of quality attributes. Because of more complex stage-wise acceptance criteria, traditional process capability measures are inadequate for general application in the pharmaceutical industry. The probability of acceptance concept provides a clear measure, derived from specific acceptance criteria for each quality attribute. In line with the 2011 FDA Guidance, this approach systematically evaluates data and scientifically establishes evidence that a process is capable of consistently delivering quality product. The probability of acceptance provides a direct and readily understandable indication of product risk. As with traditional capability indices, the acceptance probability approach assumes that underlying data distributions are normal. The computational solutions for dosage uniformity and dissolution acceptance criteria are readily applicable. For dosage uniformity, the expected AV range may be determined using the s lo and s hi values along with the worst case estimates of the mean. This approach permits a risk-based assessment of future batch performance of the critical quality attributes. The concept is also readily applicable to sterile/non sterile liquid dose products. Quality attributes such as deliverable volume and assay per spray have stage-wise acceptance that can be converted into an acceptance probability. Accepted statistical guidelines indicate processes with C pk > 1.33 as performing well within statistical control and those with C pk < 1.0 as "incapable" (1). A C pk > 1.33 is associated with a centered process that will statistically produce less than 63 defective units per million. This is equivalent to an acceptance probability of >99.99%.

An Evaluation of the Health Benefits Achieved at the Time of an Air Quality Intervention in Three Israeli Cities

PubMed Central

Yinon, Lital; Thurston, George

2018-01-01

Background The statistical association between increased exposure to air pollution and increased risk of morbidity and mortality is well established. However, documentation of the health benefits of lowering air pollution levels, which would support the biological plausibility of those past statistical associations, are not as well developed. A better understanding of the aftereffects of interventions to reduce air pollution is needed in order to: 1) better document the benefits of lowered air pollution; and, 2) identify the types of reductions that most effectively provide health benefits. Methods This study analyzes daily health and pollution data from three major cities in Israel that have undergone pollution control interventions to reduce sulfur emissions from combustion sources. In this work, the hypothesis tested is that transitions to cleaner fuels are accompanied by a decreased risk of daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities. Interrupted time series regression models are applied in order to test whether the cleaner air interventions are associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality. Results In the multi-city meta-analysis we found statistically significant reductions of 13.3% [CI −21.9%, −3.8%] in cardiovascular mortality, and a borderline significant (p=0.06) reduction of 19.0% [CI −35.1%, 1.1%] in total mortality. Conclusions Overall, new experiential evidence is provided consistent with human health benefits being associated with interventions to reduce air pollution. The methods employed also provide an approach that may be applied elsewhere in the future to better document and optimize the health benefits of clean air interventions. PMID:28237065

An evaluation of the health benefits achieved at the time of an air quality intervention in three Israeli cities.

PubMed

Yinon, Lital; Thurston, George

2017-05-01

The statistical association between increased exposure to air pollution and increased risk of morbidity and mortality is well established. However, documentation of the health benefits of lowering air pollution levels, which would support the biological plausibility of those past statistical associations, are not as well developed. A better understanding of the aftereffects of interventions to reduce air pollution is needed in order to: 1) better document the benefits of lowered air pollution; and, 2) identify the types of reductions that most effectively provide health benefits. This study analyzes daily health and pollution data from three major cities in Israel that have undergone pollution control interventions to reduce sulfur emissions from combustion sources. In this work, the hypothesis tested is that transitions to cleaner fuels are accompanied by a decreased risk of daily cardiovascular and respiratory mortalities. Interrupted time series regression models are applied in order to test whether the cleaner air interventions are associated with a statistically significant reduction in mortality. In the multi-city meta-analysis we found statistically significant reductions of 13.3% [CI -21.9%, -3.8%] in cardiovascular mortality, and a borderline significant (p=0.06) reduction of 19.0% [CI -35.1%, 1.1%] in total mortality. Overall, new experiential evidence is provided consistent with human health benefits being associated with interventions to reduce air pollution. The methods employed also provide an approach that may be applied elsewhere in the future to better document and optimize the health benefits of clean air interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Crack azimuths on Europa: The G1 lineament sequence revisited

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sarid, A.R.; Greenberg, R.; Hoppa, G.V.; Brown, D.M.; Geissler, P.

2005-01-01

The tectonic sequence in the anti-jovian area covered by regional mapping images from Galileo's orbit E15 is determined from a study of cross-cutting relationships among lineament features. The sequence is used to test earlier results from orbit G1, based on lower resolution images, which appeared to display a progressive change in azimuthal orientation over about 90?? in a clockwise sense. Such a progression is consistent with expected stress variations that would accompany plausible non-synchronous rotation. The more recent data provide a more complete record than the G1 data did. We find that to fit the sequence into a continual clockwise change of orientation would require at least 1000?? (> 5 cycles) of azimuthal rotation. If due to non-synchronous rotation of Europa, this result implies that we are seeing back further into the tectonic record than the G1 results had suggested. The three sets of orientations found by Geissler et al. now appear to have been spaced out over several cycles, not during a fraction of one cycle. While our more complete sequence of lineament formation is consistent with non-synchronous rotation, a statistical test shows that it cannot be construed as independent evidence. Other lines of evidence do support non-synchronous rotation, but azimuths of crack sequences do not show it, probably because only a couple of cracks form in a given region in any given non-synchronous rotation period. ?? 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interest in Aesthetic Rhinoplasty Scale.

PubMed

Naraghi, Mohsen; Atari, Mohammad

2017-04-01

Interest in cosmetic surgery is increasing, with rhinoplasty being one of the most popular surgical procedures. It is essential that surgeons identify patients with existing psychological conditions before any procedure. This study aimed to develop and validate the Interest in Aesthetic Rhinoplasty Scale (IARS). Four studies were conducted to develop the IARS and to evaluate different indices of validity (face, content, construct, criterion, and concurrent validities) and reliability (internal consistency, split-half coefficient, and temporal stability) of the scale. The four study samples included a total of 463 participants. Statistical analysis revealed satisfactory psychometric properties in all samples. Scores on the IARS were negatively correlated with self-esteem scores ( r  = -0.296; p  < 0.01) and positively associated with scores for psychopathologic symptoms ( r  = 0.164; p  < 0.05), social dysfunction ( r  = 0.268; p  < 0.01), and depression ( r  = 0.308; p  < 0.01). The internal and test-retest coefficients of consistency were found to be high (α = 0.93; intraclass coefficient = 0.94). Rhinoplasty patients were found to have significantly higher IARS scores than nonpatients ( p  < 0.001). Findings of the present studies provided evidence for face, content, construct, criterion, and concurrent validities and internal and test-retest reliability of the IARS. This evidence supports the use of the scale in clinical and research settings. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

A culture conducive to women's academic success: development of a measure.

PubMed

Westring, Alyssa Friede; Speck, Rebecca M; Sammel, Mary Dupuis; Scott, Patricia; Tuton, Lucy Wolf; Grisso, Jeane Ann; Abbuhl, Stephanie

2012-11-01

The work environment culture inhibits women's career success in academic medicine. The lack of clarity and consistency in the definition, measurement, and analysis of culture constrains current research on the topic. The authors addressed this gap by defining the construct of a culture conducive to women's academic success (CCWAS) and creating a measure (i.e., tool) to evaluate it. First, the authors conducted a review of published literature, held focus groups, and consulted with subject matter experts to develop a measure of academic workplace culture for women. Then they developed and pilot-tested the measure with a convenience sample of women assistant professors. After refining the measure, they administered it, along with additional scales for validation, to 133 women assistant professors at the University of Pennsylvania. Finally, they conducted statistical analyses to explore the measure's nature and validity. A CCWAS consists of four distinct, but related, dimensions: equal access, work-life balance, freedom from gender biases, and supportive leadership. The authors found evidence that women within departments/divisions agree on the supportiveness of their units but that substantial differences among units exist. The analyses provided strong evidence for the reliability and validity of their measure. This report contributes to a growing understanding of women's academic medicine careers and provides a measure that researchers can use to assess the supportiveness of the culture for women assistant professors and that leaders can use to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions designed to increase the supportiveness of the environment for women faculty.

Outcomes Definitions and Statistical Tests in Oncology Studies: A Systematic Review of the Reporting Consistency.

PubMed

Rivoirard, Romain; Duplay, Vianney; Oriol, Mathieu; Tinquaut, Fabien; Chauvin, Franck; Magne, Nicolas; Bourmaud, Aurelie

2016-01-01

Quality of reporting for Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) in oncology was analyzed in several systematic reviews, but, in this setting, there is paucity of data for the outcomes definitions and consistency of reporting for statistical tests in RCTs and Observational Studies (OBS). The objective of this review was to describe those two reporting aspects, for OBS and RCTs in oncology. From a list of 19 medical journals, three were retained for analysis, after a random selection: British Medical Journal (BMJ), Annals of Oncology (AoO) and British Journal of Cancer (BJC). All original articles published between March 2009 and March 2014 were screened. Only studies whose main outcome was accompanied by a corresponding statistical test were included in the analysis. Studies based on censored data were excluded. Primary outcome was to assess quality of reporting for description of primary outcome measure in RCTs and of variables of interest in OBS. A logistic regression was performed to identify covariates of studies potentially associated with concordance of tests between Methods and Results parts. 826 studies were included in the review, and 698 were OBS. Variables were described in Methods section for all OBS studies and primary endpoint was clearly detailed in Methods section for 109 RCTs (85.2%). 295 OBS (42.2%) and 43 RCTs (33.6%) had perfect agreement for reported statistical test between Methods and Results parts. In multivariable analysis, variable "number of included patients in study" was associated with test consistency: aOR (adjusted Odds Ratio) for third group compared to first group was equal to: aOR Grp3 = 0.52 [0.31-0.89] (P value = 0.009). Variables in OBS and primary endpoint in RCTs are reported and described with a high frequency. However, statistical tests consistency between methods and Results sections of OBS is not always noted. Therefore, we encourage authors and peer reviewers to verify consistency of statistical tests in oncology studies.

Outcomes Definitions and Statistical Tests in Oncology Studies: A Systematic Review of the Reporting Consistency

PubMed Central

Rivoirard, Romain; Duplay, Vianney; Oriol, Mathieu; Tinquaut, Fabien; Chauvin, Franck; Magne, Nicolas; Bourmaud, Aurelie

2016-01-01

Background Quality of reporting for Randomized Clinical Trials (RCTs) in oncology was analyzed in several systematic reviews, but, in this setting, there is paucity of data for the outcomes definitions and consistency of reporting for statistical tests in RCTs and Observational Studies (OBS). The objective of this review was to describe those two reporting aspects, for OBS and RCTs in oncology. Methods From a list of 19 medical journals, three were retained for analysis, after a random selection: British Medical Journal (BMJ), Annals of Oncology (AoO) and British Journal of Cancer (BJC). All original articles published between March 2009 and March 2014 were screened. Only studies whose main outcome was accompanied by a corresponding statistical test were included in the analysis. Studies based on censored data were excluded. Primary outcome was to assess quality of reporting for description of primary outcome measure in RCTs and of variables of interest in OBS. A logistic regression was performed to identify covariates of studies potentially associated with concordance of tests between Methods and Results parts. Results 826 studies were included in the review, and 698 were OBS. Variables were described in Methods section for all OBS studies and primary endpoint was clearly detailed in Methods section for 109 RCTs (85.2%). 295 OBS (42.2%) and 43 RCTs (33.6%) had perfect agreement for reported statistical test between Methods and Results parts. In multivariable analysis, variable "number of included patients in study" was associated with test consistency: aOR (adjusted Odds Ratio) for third group compared to first group was equal to: aOR Grp3 = 0.52 [0.31–0.89] (P value = 0.009). Conclusion Variables in OBS and primary endpoint in RCTs are reported and described with a high frequency. However, statistical tests consistency between methods and Results sections of OBS is not always noted. Therefore, we encourage authors and peer reviewers to verify consistency of statistical tests in oncology studies. PMID:27716793

A predictive Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of bridging studies.

PubMed

Gould, A Lawrence; Jin, Tian; Zhang, Li Xin; Wang, William W B

2012-09-01

Pharmaceutical product development culminates in confirmatory trials whose evidence for the product's efficacy and safety supports regulatory approval for marketing. Regulatory agencies in countries whose patients were not included in the confirmatory trials often require confirmation of efficacy and safety in their patient populations, which may be accomplished by carrying out bridging studies to establish consistency for local patients of the effects demonstrated by the original trials. This article describes and illustrates an approach for designing and analyzing bridging studies that fully incorporates the information provided by the original trials. The approach determines probability contours or regions of joint predictive intervals for treatment effect and response variability, or endpoints of treatment effect confidence intervals, that are functions of the findings from the original trials, the sample sizes for the bridging studies, and possible deviations from complete consistency with the original trials. The bridging studies are judged consistent with the original trials if their findings fall within the probability contours or regions. Regulatory considerations determine the region definitions and appropriate probability levels. Producer and consumer risks provide a way to assess alternative region and probability choices. [Supplemental materials are available for this article. Go to the Publisher's online edition of the Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics for the following free supplemental resource: Appendix 2: R code for Calculations.].

Factor analysis methods and validity evidence: A systematic review of instrument development across the continuum of medical education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wetzel, Angela Payne

Previous systematic reviews indicate a lack of reporting of reliability and validity evidence in subsets of the medical education literature. Psychology and general education reviews of factor analysis also indicate gaps between current and best practices; yet, a comprehensive review of exploratory factor analysis in instrument development across the continuum of medical education had not been previously identified. Therefore, the purpose for this study was critical review of instrument development articles employing exploratory factor or principal component analysis published in medical education (2006--2010) to describe and assess the reporting of methods and validity evidence based on the Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing and factor analysis best practices. Data extraction of 64 articles measuring a variety of constructs that have been published throughout the peer-reviewed medical education literature indicate significant errors in the translation of exploratory factor analysis best practices to current practice. Further, techniques for establishing validity evidence tend to derive from a limited scope of methods including reliability statistics to support internal structure and support for test content. Instruments reviewed for this study lacked supporting evidence based on relationships with other variables and response process, and evidence based on consequences of testing was not evident. Findings suggest a need for further professional development within the medical education researcher community related to (1) appropriate factor analysis methodology and reporting and (2) the importance of pursuing multiple sources of reliability and validity evidence to construct a well-supported argument for the inferences made from the instrument. Medical education researchers and educators should be cautious in adopting instruments from the literature and carefully review available evidence. Finally, editors and reviewers are encouraged to recognize this gap in best practices and subsequently to promote instrument development research that is more consistent through the peer-review process.

An Experimental Study of the Internal Consistency of Judgments Made in Bookmark Standard Setting

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clauser, Brian E.; Baldwin, Peter; Margolis, Melissa J.; Mee, Janet; Winward, Marcia

2017-01-01

Validating performance standards is challenging and complex. Because of the difficulties associated with collecting evidence related to external criteria, validity arguments rely heavily on evidence related to internal criteria--especially evidence that expert judgments are internally consistent. Given its importance, it is somewhat surprising…

Approaching Career Criminals With An Intelligence Cycle

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-12-01

including arrest statistics and “arrest statistics have been used as the main barometer of juvenile delinquent activity, (but) many juvenile... Statistical Briefing Book,” 187. 26 guided by theories about the causes of delinquent behavior, but there was no determination if those efforts achieved the...children.”110 However, the most evidence-based comparison of juvenile delinquency reduction programs is the statistical meta-analysis (a systematic

Statistical distribution of blood serotonin as a predictor of early autistic brain abnormalities

PubMed Central

Janušonis, Skirmantas

2005-01-01

Background A wide range of abnormalities has been reported in autistic brains, but these abnormalities may be the result of an earlier underlying developmental alteration that may no longer be evident by the time autism is diagnosed. The most consistent biological finding in autistic individuals has been their statistically elevated levels of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT, serotonin) in blood platelets (platelet hyperserotonemia). The early developmental alteration of the autistic brain and the autistic platelet hyperserotonemia may be caused by the same biological factor expressed in the brain and outside the brain, respectively. Unlike the brain, blood platelets are short-lived and continue to be produced throughout the life span, suggesting that this factor may continue to operate outside the brain years after the brain is formed. The statistical distributions of the platelet 5-HT levels in normal and autistic groups have characteristic features and may contain information about the nature of this yet unidentified factor. Results The identity of this factor was studied by using a novel, quantitative approach that was applied to published distributions of the platelet 5-HT levels in normal and autistic groups. It was shown that the published data are consistent with the hypothesis that a factor that interferes with brain development in autism may also regulate the release of 5-HT from gut enterochromaffin cells. Numerical analysis revealed that this factor may be non-functional in autistic individuals. Conclusion At least some biological factors, the abnormal function of which leads to the development of the autistic brain, may regulate the release of 5-HT from the gut years after birth. If the present model is correct, it will allow future efforts to be focused on a limited number of gene candidates, some of which have not been suspected to be involved in autism (such as the 5-HT4 receptor gene) based on currently available clinical and experimental studies. PMID:16029508

Statistical distribution of blood serotonin as a predictor of early autistic brain abnormalities.

PubMed

Janusonis, Skirmantas

2005-07-19

A wide range of abnormalities has been reported in autistic brains, but these abnormalities may be the result of an earlier underlying developmental alteration that may no longer be evident by the time autism is diagnosed. The most consistent biological finding in autistic individuals has been their statistically elevated levels of 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT, serotonin) in blood platelets (platelet hyperserotonemia). The early developmental alteration of the autistic brain and the autistic platelet hyperserotonemia may be caused by the same biological factor expressed in the brain and outside the brain, respectively. Unlike the brain, blood platelets are short-lived and continue to be produced throughout the life span, suggesting that this factor may continue to operate outside the brain years after the brain is formed. The statistical distributions of the platelet 5-HT levels in normal and autistic groups have characteristic features and may contain information about the nature of this yet unidentified factor. The identity of this factor was studied by using a novel, quantitative approach that was applied to published distributions of the platelet 5-HT levels in normal and autistic groups. It was shown that the published data are consistent with the hypothesis that a factor that interferes with brain development in autism may also regulate the release of 5-HT from gut enterochromaffin cells. Numerical analysis revealed that this factor may be non-functional in autistic individuals. At least some biological factors, the abnormal function of which leads to the development of the autistic brain, may regulate the release of 5-HT from the gut years after birth. If the present model is correct, it will allow future efforts to be focused on a limited number of gene candidates, some of which have not been suspected to be involved in autism (such as the 5-HT4 receptor gene) based on currently available clinical and experimental studies.

Detection of Single Standing Dead Trees from Aerial Color Infrared Imagery by Segmentation with Shape and Intensity Priors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polewski, P.; Yao, W.; Heurich, M.; Krzystek, P.; Stilla, U.

2015-03-01

Standing dead trees, known as snags, are an essential factor in maintaining biodiversity in forest ecosystems. Combined with their role as carbon sinks, this makes for a compelling reason to study their spatial distribution. This paper presents an integrated method to detect and delineate individual dead tree crowns from color infrared aerial imagery. Our approach consists of two steps which incorporate statistical information about prior distributions of both the image intensities and the shapes of the target objects. In the first step, we perform a Gaussian Mixture Model clustering in the pixel color space with priors on the cluster means, obtaining up to 3 components corresponding to dead trees, living trees, and shadows. We then refine the dead tree regions using a level set segmentation method enriched with a generative model of the dead trees' shape distribution as well as a discriminative model of their pixel intensity distribution. The iterative application of the statistical shape template yields the set of delineated dead crowns. The prior information enforces the consistency of the template's shape variation with the shape manifold defined by manually labeled training examples, which makes it possible to separate crowns located in close proximity and prevents the formation of large crown clusters. Also, the statistical information built into the segmentation gives rise to an implicit detection scheme, because the shape template evolves towards an empty contour if not enough evidence for the object is present in the image. We test our method on 3 sample plots from the Bavarian Forest National Park with reference data obtained by manually marking individual dead tree polygons in the images. Our results are scenario-dependent and range from a correctness/completeness of 0.71/0.81 up to 0.77/1, with an average center-of-gravity displacement of 3-5 pixels between the detected and reference polygons.

Upward Flame Propagation and Wire Insulation Flammability: 2006 Round Robin Data Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirsch, David B.

2007-01-01

This viewgraph document reviews test results from tests of different material used for wire insulation for flame propagation and flammability. The presentation focused on investigating data variability both within and between laboratories; evaluated the between-laboratory consistency through consistency statistic h, which indicates how one laboratory s cell average compares with averages from other labs; evaluated the within-laboratory consistency through the consistency statistic k, which is an indicator of how one laboratory s within-laboratory variability compares with the variability of other labs combined; and extreme results were tested to determine whether they resulted by chance or from nonrandom causes (human error, instrument calibration shift, non-adherence to procedures, etc.)

Systematic reviews, overviews of reviews and comparative effectiveness reviews: a discussion of approaches to knowledge synthesis.

PubMed

Hartling, Lisa; Vandermeer, Ben; Fernandes, Ricardo M

2014-06-01

The Cochrane Collaboration has been at the forefront of developing methods for knowledge synthesis internationally. We discuss three approaches to synthesize evidence for healthcare interventions: systematic reviews (SRs), overviews of reviews and comparative effectiveness reviews. We illustrate these approaches with examples from knowledge syntheses on interventions for bronchiolitis, a common acute paediatric condition. Some of the differences among these approaches are subtle and methods are not necessarily mutually exclusive to a single review type. Systematic reviews bring together evidence from multiple studies in a rigorous fashion for a single intervention or group of interventions. Systematic reviews, as they have developed within healthcare, often focus on single or select interventions and direct pairwise comparisons; therefore, end-users may need to read several individual SRs to inform decision making. Overviews of reviews compile information from multiple SRs relevant to a single health problem. Overviews provide the end-user with a quick overview of the available evidence; however, overviews are dependent on the methods and decisions employed at the SR level. Furthermore, overviews do not often integrate evidence from different SRs quantitatively. Comparative effectiveness reviews, as we define them here, synthesize relevant evidence from individual studies to describe the relative benefits (or harms) of a range of interventions. Comparative effectiveness reviews may use statistical methods (network meta-analysis) to incorporate direct and indirect evidence; therefore, they can provide stronger inferences about the relative effectiveness (or safety) of interventions. While potentially more expensive and time-consuming to produce, a comparative effectiveness review provides a synthesis of a range of interventions for a given condition and the relative efficacy across interventions using consistent and standardized methodology. Copyright © 2014 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Consistency and sources of divergence in recommendations on screening with questionnaires for presently experienced health problems or symptoms: a comparison of recommendations from the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care, UK National Screening Committee, and US Preventive Services Task Force.

PubMed

Thombs, Brett D; Saadat, Nazanin; Riehm, Kira E; Karter, Justin Michael; Vaswani, Akansha; Andrews, Bonnie K; Simons, Peter; Cosgrove, Lisa

2017-08-09

Recently, health screening recommendations have gone beyond screening for early-stage, asymptomatic disease to include "screening" for presently experienced health problems and symptoms using self-report questionnaires. We examined recommendations from three major national guideline organizations to determine the consistency of recommendations, identify sources of divergent recommendations, and determine if guideline organizations have identified any direct randomized controlled trial (RCT) evidence for the effectiveness of questionnaire-based screening. We reviewed recommendation statements listed by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (CTFPHC), the United Kingdom National Screening Committee (UKNSC), and the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) as of 5 September 2016. Eligible recommendations focused on using self-report questionnaires to identify patients with presently experienced health problems or symptoms. Within each recommendation and accompanying evidence review we identified screening RCTs. We identified 22 separate recommendations on questionnaire-based screening, including three CTFPHC recommendations against screening, eight UKNSC recommendations against screening, four USPSTF recommendations in favor of screening (alcohol misuse, adolescent depression, adult depression, intimate partner violence), and seven USPSTF recommendations that did not recommend for or against screening. In the four cases where the USPSTF recommended screening, either the CTFPHC, the UKNSC, or both recommended against. When recommendations diverged, the USPSTF expressed confidence in benefits based on indirect evidence, evaluated potential harms as minimal, and did not consider cost or resource use. CTFPHC and UKNSC recommendations against screening, on the other hand, focused on the lack of direct evidence of benefit and raised concerns about harms to patients and resource use. Of six RCTs that directly evaluated screening interventions, five did not report any statistically significant primary or secondary health outcomes in favor of screening, and one trial reported equivocal results. Only the USPSTF has made any recommendations for screening with questionnaires for presently experienced problems or symptoms. The CTFPHC and UKNSC recommended against screening in all of their recommendations. Differences in recommendations appear to reflect differences in willingness to assume benefit from indirect evidence and different approaches to assessing possible harms and resource consumption. There were no examples in any recommendations of RCTs with direct evidence of improved health outcomes.

A computer-based instrumentation system for measurement of breath-by-breath oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production.

PubMed

Sharma, C; Gallagher, R R

1994-01-01

Improvements are implemented (Version 4) in a Computer-Based Respiratory Measurement System (CBRMS) identified as Version 3. The programming language has been changed from Pascal to C. A Gateway 2000 desktop computer with 486 DX2/50MHz CPU and a plug-in data I/O board (KEITHLEY METRABYTE/ASYST/DAC's DAS-HRES 16-bit Analog and Digital I/O board) replaces an HP 9836 system used in Version 3. The breath-by-breath system consists of a mass spectrometer for measuring fractional concentrations of oxygen and carbon dioxide and the accommodation of a turbine or pneumotachometer for measuring inspiratory and expiratory flows. The temperature of the inspiratory and expiratory gases can be monitored if temperature corrections are necessary for the flow measurement device. These signals are presented to the PC via the data acquisition module. To compare the two Versions, ten significant respiratory parameters were investigated and compared for physiological resting states and steady states obtained during an exercise forcing. Both graphical and statistical (analysis of variance, regression, and correlation) tests were carried out on the data. The results from the two versions compared well for all ten parameters. Also, no evidence of a statistically significant difference was found between the resting and steady-state results of the present CBRMS (Version 4) and the previous CBRMS (Version 3). This evidence suggests that Version 3 (Pascal) has been successfully converted to Version 4 (C). Implementation of the CBRMS in C on a PC has several advantages.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

PubMed

Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

2009-01-01

To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

Planck 2015 results. XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; Aluri, P. K.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartolo, N.; Basak, S.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J. J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Casaponsa, B.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Christensen, P. R.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Combet, C.; Contreras, D.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Cruz, M.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Fantaye, Y.; Fergusson, J.; Fernandez-Cobos, R.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Frolov, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J. E.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D. L.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huang, Z.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kim, J.; Kisner, T. S.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Liu, H.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mikkelsen, K.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Pant, N.; Paoletti, D.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T. J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Popa, L.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Rotti, A.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, L. D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Wehus, I. K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zibin, J. P.; Zonca, A.

2016-09-01

We test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect our studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The "Cold Spot" is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.

Planck 2015 results: XVI. Isotropy and statistics of the CMB

DOE PAGES

Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Akrami, Y.; ...

2016-09-20

In this paper, we test the statistical isotropy and Gaussianity of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies using observations made by the Planck satellite. Our results are based mainly on the full Planck mission for temperature, but also include some polarization measurements. In particular, we consider the CMB anisotropy maps derived from the multi-frequency Planck data by several component-separation methods. For the temperature anisotropies, we find excellent agreement between results based on these sky maps over both a very large fraction of the sky and a broad range of angular scales, establishing that potential foreground residuals do not affect ourmore » studies. Tests of skewness, kurtosis, multi-normality, N-point functions, and Minkowski functionals indicate consistency with Gaussianity, while a power deficit at large angular scales is manifested in several ways, for example low map variance. The results of a peak statistics analysis are consistent with the expectations of a Gaussian random field. The “Cold Spot” is detected with several methods, including map kurtosis, peak statistics, and mean temperature profile. We thoroughly probe the large-scale dipolar power asymmetry, detecting it with several independent tests, and address the subject of a posteriori correction. Tests of directionality suggest the presence of angular clustering from large to small scales, but at a significance that is dependent on the details of the approach. We perform the first examination of polarization data, finding the morphology of stacked peaks to be consistent with the expectations of statistically isotropic simulations. Finally, where they overlap, these results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and provide our most thorough view of the statistics of the CMB fluctuations to date.« less

Undergraduate medical students’ perceptions, attitudes, and competencies in evidence-based medicine (EBM), and their understanding of EBM reality in Syria

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Teaching evidence-based medicine (EBM) should be evaluated and guided by evidence of its own effectiveness. However, no data are available on adoption of EBM by Syrian undergraduate, postgraduate, or practicing physicians. In fact, the teaching of EBM in Syria is not yet a part of undergraduate medical curricula. The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course. Methods The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course that took place in 2011. The course included didactic lectures as well as interactive hands-on workshops on all topics of EBM. A comprehensive questionnaire, that included the Berlin questionnaire, was used to inspect medical students’ awareness of, attitudes toward, and competencies’ in EBM. Results According to students, problems facing proper EBM practice in Syria were the absence of the following: an EBM teaching module in medical school curriculum (94%), role models among professors and instructors (92%), a librarian (70%), institutional subscription to medical journals (94%), and sufficient IT hardware (58%). After the course, there was a statistically significant increase in medical students' perceived ability to go through steps of EBM, namely: formulating PICO questions (56.9%), searching for evidence (39.8%), appraising the evidence (27.3%), understanding statistics (48%), and applying evidence at point of care (34.1%). However, mean increase in Berlin scores after the course was 2.68, a non-statistically significant increase of 17.86%. Conclusion The road to a better EBM reality in Syria starts with teaching EBM in medical school and developing the proper environment to facilitate transforming current medical education and practice to an evidence-based standard in Syria. PMID:22882872

Undergraduate medical students' perceptions, attitudes, and competencies in evidence-based medicine (EBM), and their understanding of EBM reality in Syria.

PubMed

Alahdab, Fares; Firwana, Belal; Hasan, Rim; Sonbol, Mohamad Bassam; Fares, Munes; Alnahhas, Iyad; Sabouni, Ammar; Ferwana, Mazen

2012-08-12

Teaching evidence-based medicine (EBM) should be evaluated and guided by evidence of its own effectiveness. However, no data are available on adoption of EBM by Syrian undergraduate, postgraduate, or practicing physicians. In fact, the teaching of EBM in Syria is not yet a part of undergraduate medical curricula. The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course. The authors evaluated education of evidence-based medicine through a two-day intensive training course that took place in 2011. The course included didactic lectures as well as interactive hands-on workshops on all topics of EBM. A comprehensive questionnaire, that included the Berlin questionnaire, was used to inspect medical students' awareness of, attitudes toward, and competencies' in EBM. According to students, problems facing proper EBM practice in Syria were the absence of the following: an EBM teaching module in medical school curriculum (94%), role models among professors and instructors (92%), a librarian (70%), institutional subscription to medical journals (94%), and sufficient IT hardware (58%). After the course, there was a statistically significant increase in medical students' perceived ability to go through steps of EBM, namely: formulating PICO questions (56.9%), searching for evidence (39.8%), appraising the evidence (27.3%), understanding statistics (48%), and applying evidence at point of care (34.1%). However, mean increase in Berlin scores after the course was 2.68, a non-statistically significant increase of 17.86%. The road to a better EBM reality in Syria starts with teaching EBM in medical school and developing the proper environment to facilitate transforming current medical education and practice to an evidence-based standard in Syria.

The Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema: a review of the biomarker-surrogate literature and a proposal for a criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema for evaluating the status of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Lassere, Marissa N

2008-06-01

There are clear advantages to using biomarkers and surrogate endpoints, but concerns about clinical and statistical validity and systematic methods to evaluate these aspects hinder their efficient application. Section 2 is a systematic, historical review of the biomarker-surrogate endpoint literature with special reference to the nomenclature, the systems of classification and statistical methods developed for their evaluation. In Section 3 an explicit, criterion-based, quantitative, multidimensional hierarchical levels of evidence schema - Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema - is proposed to evaluate and co-ordinate the multiple dimensions (biological, epidemiological, statistical, clinical trial and risk-benefit evidence) of the biomarker clinical endpoint relationships. The schema systematically evaluates and ranks the surrogacy status of biomarkers and surrogate endpoints using defined levels of evidence. The schema incorporates the three independent domains: Study Design, Target Outcome and Statistical Evaluation. Each domain has items ranked from zero to five. An additional category called Penalties incorporates additional considerations of biological plausibility, risk-benefit and generalizability. The total score (0-15) determines the level of evidence, with Level 1 the strongest and Level 5 the weakest. The term ;surrogate' is restricted to markers attaining Levels 1 or 2 only. Surrogacy status of markers can then be directly compared within and across different areas of medicine to guide individual, trial-based or drug-development decisions. This schema would facilitate communication between clinical, researcher, regulatory, industry and consumer participants necessary for evaluation of the biomarker-surrogate-clinical endpoint relationship in their different settings.

Evaluation of forensic DNA mixture evidence: protocol for evaluation, interpretation, and statistical calculations using the combined probability of inclusion.

PubMed

Bieber, Frederick R; Buckleton, John S; Budowle, Bruce; Butler, John M; Coble, Michael D

2016-08-31

The evaluation and interpretation of forensic DNA mixture evidence faces greater interpretational challenges due to increasingly complex mixture evidence. Such challenges include: casework involving low quantity or degraded evidence leading to allele and locus dropout; allele sharing of contributors leading to allele stacking; and differentiation of PCR stutter artifacts from true alleles. There is variation in statistical approaches used to evaluate the strength of the evidence when inclusion of a specific known individual(s) is determined, and the approaches used must be supportable. There are concerns that methods utilized for interpretation of complex forensic DNA mixtures may not be implemented properly in some casework. Similar questions are being raised in a number of U.S. jurisdictions, leading to some confusion about mixture interpretation for current and previous casework. Key elements necessary for the interpretation and statistical evaluation of forensic DNA mixtures are described. Given the most common method for statistical evaluation of DNA mixtures in many parts of the world, including the USA, is the Combined Probability of Inclusion/Exclusion (CPI/CPE). Exposition and elucidation of this method and a protocol for use is the focus of this article. Formulae and other supporting materials are provided. Guidance and details of a DNA mixture interpretation protocol is provided for application of the CPI/CPE method in the analysis of more complex forensic DNA mixtures. This description, in turn, should help reduce the variability of interpretation with application of this methodology and thereby improve the quality of DNA mixture interpretation throughout the forensic community.

Electrophysiological Evidence of Heterogeneity in Visual Statistical Learning in Young Children with ASD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jeste, Shafali S.; Kirkham, Natasha; Senturk, Damla; Hasenstab, Kyle; Sugar, Catherine; Kupelian, Chloe; Baker, Elizabeth; Sanders, Andrew J.; Shimizu, Christina; Norona, Amanda; Paparella, Tanya; Freeman, Stephanny F. N.; Johnson, Scott P.

2015-01-01

Statistical learning is characterized by detection of regularities in one's environment without an awareness or intention to learn, and it may play a critical role in language and social behavior. Accordingly, in this study we investigated the electrophysiological correlates of visual statistical learning in young children with autism…

Cetacean beachings correlate with geomagnetic disturbances in Earth's magnetosphere: an example of how astronomical changes impact the future of life

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrari, Thomas E.

2017-04-01

The beaching and stranding of whales and dolphins around the world has been mystifying scientists for centuries. Although many theories have been proposed, few are substantiated by unequivocal statistical evidence. Advances in the field of animal magnetoreception have established that many organisms, including cetaceans, have an internal `compass,' which they use for orientation when traveling long distances. Astrobiology involves not only the origin and distribution of life in the universe, but also the scientific study of how extraterrestrial conditions affect evolution of life on planet Earth. The focus of this study is how cetacean life is influenced by disturbances in its environment that originate from an astrological phenomenon - in the present study that involves solar flares and cetacean beachings. Solar storms are caused by major coronal eruptions on the Sun. Upon reaching Earth, they cause disturbances in Earth's normally stable magnetosphere. Unable to follow an accurate magnetic bearing under such circumstances, cetaceans lose their compass reading while travelling and, depending on their juxtaposition and nearness to land, eventually beach themselves. (1) This hypothesis was supported by six separate, independent surveys of beachings: (A) in the Mediterranean Sea, (B) the northern Gulf of Mexico, (C) the east and (D) west coasts of the USA and two surveys (E and F) from around the world. When the six surveys were pooled (1614 strandings), a highly significant correlation (R 2 = 0.981) of when strandings occurred with when major geomagnetic disturbances in Earth's magnetosphere occurred was consistent with this hypothesis. (2) Whale and dolphin strandings in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the USA were correlated (R 2 = 0.919, R 2 = 0.924) with the number of days before and after a geomagnetic storm. (3) Yearly strandings were correlated with annual geomagnetic storm days. (4) Annual beachings of cetaceans from 1998 to 2012 were linearly correlated (R 2 = 0.751) with frequency of annual sunspot numbers. Thus, consistently strong statistical correlation evidence indicates that an astronomical phenomenon - solar flares - can cause cetaceans to change their behaviour and become disoriented, which eventually causes them to swim onto a shore and beach themselves.

Free Energy Defect Model for the Cu-In-Ga-Se Tetrahedral Lattice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanbery, B. J.

2003-03-01

The most efficient thin-film photovoltaic converters of solar insolation to electrical power have recently achieved conversion efficiencies exceeding 19%, and are based on light absorbing layers containing the binary alloy (CuInSe_2)_1-X(CuGaSe_2)X of the α phases of these ternary chalcopyrite compounds. A statistical quantum mechanical model of the thermodynamic equilibrium defect structure of the tetrahedral lattice of copper, indium, and selenium with composition in the domain between that of the stoichiometric CuIn_1-XGa_XSe2 alloy and the β phase Cu(In_1-XGa_X)_3Se5 composition is presented. Compositions more copper-deficient than the latter have been reported experimentally to result in a breakdown of the tetrahedral coordination characteristic of the chalcopyrite lattice. These computations are based on a cluster expansion algorithm that minimizes the total free energy of the system using the Gibbs-Duhem equation to compute quasichemical reaction equilibria between the neutral clusters, and explicitly incorporates Fermi-Dirac statistics to determine their ionization equilibria and consequent carrier concentrations in the conduction and valence bands. The results are consistent with recent experimental evidence that the stoichiometric CuIn_1-XGa_XSe2 composition segregates in equilibrium into a two-phase mixture of a copper-deficient quaternary Cu_1-γIn_1-XGa_XSe2 composition and the binary Cu_2-δSe compound. The model predicts that the hole majority carrier (p-type) can only be achieved in the equilibrium single-phase chalcopyrite lattice with compositions that correspond to Cu_1-γIn_1-XGa_XSe_2+ɛ with γ and ɛ >0. This predicted requirement for selenium enrichment compared to the stoichiometric CuIn_1-XGa_XSe2 alloy composition for the dominance of holes over electrons as the majority carrier type is consistent with experimental evidence, and is explained in terms of a transition of the dominant lattice defect from the selenium vacancy in the stoichiometric case to the copper vacancy defect in the selenium-enriched lattice. This result is of particular importance since all CuIn_1-XGa_XSe2 thin-film solar cells utilize p-type absorber films.

On P values and effect modification.

PubMed

Mayer, Martin

2017-12-01

A crucial element of evidence-based healthcare is the sound understanding and use of statistics. As part of instilling sound statistical knowledge and practice, it seems useful to highlight instances of unsound statistical reasoning or practice, not merely in captious or vitriolic spirit, but rather, to use such error as a springboard for edification by giving tangibility to the concepts at hand and highlighting the importance of avoiding such error. This article aims to provide an instructive overview of two key statistical concepts: effect modification and P values. A recent article published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology on side effects related to statin therapy offers a notable example of errors in understanding effect modification and P values, and although not so critical as to entirely invalidate the article, the errors still demand considerable scrutiny and correction. In doing so, this article serves as an instructive overview of the statistical concepts of effect modification and P values. Judicious handling of statistics is imperative to avoid muddying their utility. This article contributes to the body of literature aiming to improve the use of statistics, which in turn will help facilitate evidence appraisal, synthesis, translation, and application.

Efficacy of treatment for somatoform disorders: a review of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Kroenke, Kurt

2007-12-01

To review the evidence from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that have focused on the treatment of patients with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4(th) Edition (DSM-IV) somatoform disorders. Although somatoform disorders are among the most common mental disorders presenting in the general medical setting, the strength of evidence for specific treatments has not been well synthesized. MEDLINE search of articles published in English from 1966 to 2006, using the following search terms: randomized clinical trial, somatoform disorders, somatization disorder, undifferentiated somatoform disorder, hypochrondriasis, conversion disorder, pain disorder, and body dysmorphic disorder. A total of 34 RCTs involving 3922 patients were included. Two thirds of the studies involved somatization disorder (n = 4 studies) and lower threshold variants, such as abridged somatization disorder (n = 9) and medically unexplained symptoms (n = 10). Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) was effective in most studies (11 of 13), as were antidepressants in a small number (4 of 5) of studies. RCTs examining a variety of other treatments showed benefit in half (8 of 16) of the studies, the most consistent evidence existing for a consultation letter to the primary care physician. Effective treatments have been established for all somatoform disorders except conversion disorder (1 of 3 studies showing benefit) and pain disorder (no studies reported). CBT is the best established treatment for a variety of somatoform disorders, with some benefit also demonstrated for a consultation letter to the primary care physician. Preliminary but not yet conclusive evidence exists for antidepressants.

No evidence of purported lunar effect on hospital admission rates or birth rates.

PubMed

Margot, Jean-Luc

2015-01-01

Studies indicate that a fraction of nursing professionals believe in a "lunar effect"-a purported correlation between the phases of the Earth's moon and human affairs, such as birth rates, blood loss, or fertility. This article addresses some of the methodological errors and cognitive biases that can explain the human tendency of perceiving a lunar effect where there is none. This article reviews basic standards of evidence and, using an example from the published literature, illustrates how disregarding these standards can lead to erroneous conclusions. Román, Soriano, Fuentes, Gálvez, and Fernández (2004) suggested that the number of hospital admissions related to gastrointestinal bleeding was somehow influenced by the phases of the Earth's moon. Specifically, the authors claimed that the rate of hospital admissions to their bleeding unit is higher during the full moon than at other times. Their report contains a number of methodological and statistical flaws that invalidate their conclusions. Reanalysis of their data with proper procedures shows no evidence that the full moon influences the rate of hospital admissions, a result that is consistent with numerous peer-reviewed studies and meta-analyses. A review of the literature shows that birth rates are also uncorrelated to lunar phases. Data collection and analysis shortcomings, as well as powerful cognitive biases, can lead to erroneous conclusions about the purported lunar effect on human affairs. Adherence to basic standards of evidence can help assess the validity of questionable beliefs.

Racial/ethnic differences in health insurance adequacy and consistency among children: Evidence from the 2011/12 National Survey of Children’s Health

PubMed Central

Soylu, Tulay G.; Elashkar, Eman; Aloudah, Fatemah; Ahmed, Munir; Kitsantas, Panagiota

2018-01-01

Background Surveillance of disparities in healthcare insurance, services and quality of care among children are critical for properly serving the medical/healthcare needs of underserved populations. The purpose of this study was to assess racial/ethnic differences in children’s (0 to 17 years old) health insurance adequacy and consistency (child has insurance coverage for the last 12 months). Design and methods We used data from the 2011/2012 National Survey of Children’s Health (n=79,474). Descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the distribution and influence of several sociodemographic/family related factors on insurance adequacy and consistency across different racial/ethnic groups. Results Stratified analyses by race/ethnicity revealed that white and black children living in households at or below 299% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) were approximately 29 to 42% less likely to have adequate insurance compared to children living in families of higher income levels. Regardless of race/ethnicity, we found that children with public health insurance were more likely to have adequate insurance than their privately insured counterparts, while adolescents were at greater risk of inadequate coverage. Hispanic and black children were more likely to lack consistent insurance coverage. Conclusions This study provides evidence that racial/ethnic differences in adequate and consistent health insurance exists with both white and minority children being affected adversely by poverty. Establishing outreach programs for low income families, and cross-cultural education for healthcare providers may help increase health insurance adequacy and consistency within certain underserved populations. Significance for public healthAs the number of minority US children increases, monitoring racial/ethnic differences in health insurance coverage becomes critical in creating insurance programs that can provide adequate and consistent coverage. Using a nationally representative sample, the findings of this study suggest that low income and poor maternal health can adversely affect insurance consistency and adequacy for both minority and white children. This indicates that research studies on inequalities of healthcare coverage should also focus on underserved white populations of children as their insurance coverage is affected by similar factors as those for minority children. Elimination of inequalities may require targeted interventions that include the well-being of the entire family, cross-cultural education of healthcare providers, policy changes to grant low-income children with appropriate and reliable health insurance, and an ongoing monitoring of disparities by health plans. PMID:29780766

20 CFR 220.14 - Weighing of evidence.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... capacity evaluation is based upon functional objective tests with high validity and reliability; (2) The... consists of objective findings of exams that have poor reliability or validity; (7) The evidence consists...

Preliminary study on the effectiveness of short group cognitive behavioral therapy (GCBT) on Indonesian older adults.

PubMed

Utoyo, Dharmayati Bambang; Lubis, Dharmayati Utoyo; Jaya, Edo Sebastian; Arjadi, Retha; Hanum, Lathifah; Astri, Kresna; Putri, Maha Decha Dwi

2013-01-01

This research aims to develop evidence based affordable psychological therapy for Indonesian older adults. An affordable psychological therapy is important as there is virtually no managed care or health insurance that covers psychological therapy in Indonesia. Multicomponent group cognitive behavior therapy (GCBGT) was chosen as a starting point due to its extensive evidence, short sessions, and success for a wide range of psychological problems. The group format was chosen to address both the economic and the cultural context of Indonesia. Then, the developed treatment is tested to common psychological problems in older adults' population (anxiety, chronic pain, depression, and insomnia). The treatment consists of 8 sessions with twice a week meetings for 2.5 hours. There are similarities and differences among the techniques used in the treatment for the different psychological problems. The final participants are 38 older adults that are divided into the treatment groups; 8 participants joined the anxiety treatment, 10 participants for the chronic pain treatment, 10 participants for depression treatment, and lastly, 10 participants joined the insomnia treatment. The research design is pre-test post-test with within group analysis. We used principal outcome measure that is specific for each treatment group, as well as additional outcome measures. Overall, the result shows statistical significance change with large effect size for the principal outcome measure. In addition, the result for the additional measures varies from slight improvement with small effect size to statistically significant improvement with large effect size. The result indicates that short multicomponent GCBT is effective in alleviating various common psychological problems in Indonesian older adults. Therefore, multicomponent GCBT may be a good starting point to develop an effective and affordable psychological therapy for Indonesian older adults. Lastly, this result adds to the accumulating body of evidence on the effectiveness of multicomponent GCBT outside western context.

Preliminary Study on the Effectiveness of Short Group Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (GCBT) on Indonesian Older Adults

PubMed Central

Lubis, Dharmayati Utoyo; Jaya, Edo Sebastian; Arjadi, Retha; Hanum, Lathifah; Astri, Kresna; Putri, Maha Decha Dwi

2013-01-01

This research aims to develop evidence based affordable psychological therapy for Indonesian older adults. An affordable psychological therapy is important as there is virtually no managed care or health insurance that covers psychological therapy in Indonesia. Multicomponent group cognitive behavior therapy (GCBGT) was chosen as a starting point due to its extensive evidence, short sessions, and success for a wide range of psychological problems. The group format was chosen to address both the economic and the cultural context of Indonesia. Then, the developed treatment is tested to common psychological problems in older adults' population (anxiety, chronic pain, depression, and insomnia). The treatment consists of 8 sessions with twice a week meetings for 2.5 hours. There are similarities and differences among the techniques used in the treatment for the different psychological problems. The final participants are 38 older adults that are divided into the treatment groups; 8 participants joined the anxiety treatment, 10 participants for the chronic pain treatment, 10 participants for depression treatment, and lastly, 10 participants joined the insomnia treatment. The research design is pre-test post-test with within group analysis. We used principal outcome measure that is specific for each treatment group, as well as additional outcome measures. Overall, the result shows statistical significance change with large effect size for the principal outcome measure. In addition, the result for the additional measures varies from slight improvement with small effect size to statistically significant improvement with large effect size. The result indicates that short multicomponent GCBT is effective in alleviating various common psychological problems in Indonesian older adults. Therefore, multicomponent GCBT may be a good starting point to develop an effective and affordable psychological therapy for Indonesian older adults. Lastly, this result adds to the accumulating body of evidence on the effectiveness of multicomponent GCBT outside western context. PMID:23437339

Contrasting academic and tobacco industry estimates of illicit cigarette trade: evidence from Warsaw, Poland.

PubMed

Stoklosa, Michal; Ross, Hana

2014-05-01

To compare two different methods for estimating the size of the illicit cigarette market with each other and to contrast the estimates obtained by these two methods with the results of an industry-commissioned study. We used two observational methods: collection of data from packs in smokers' personal possession, and collection of data from packs discarded on streets. The data were obtained in Warsaw, Poland in September 2011 and October 2011. We used tests of independence to compare the results based on the two methods, and to contrast those with the estimate from the industry-commissioned discarded pack collection conducted in September 2011. We found that the proportions of cigarette packs classified as not intended for the Polish market estimated by our two methods were not statistically different. These estimates were 14.6% (95% CI 10.8% to 19.4%) using the survey data (N=400) and 15.6% (95% CI 13.2% to 18.4%) using the discarded pack data (N=754). The industry estimate (22.9%) was higher by nearly a half compared with our estimates, and this difference is statistically significant. Our findings are consistent with previous evidence of the tobacco industry exaggerating the scope of illicit trade and with the general pattern of the industry manipulating evidence to mislead the debate on tobacco control policy in many countries. Collaboration between governments and the tobacco industry to estimate tobacco tax avoidance and evasion is likely to produce upward-biased estimates of illicit cigarette trade. If governments are presented with industry estimates, they should strictly require a disclosure of all methodological details and data used in generating these estimates, and should seek advice from independent experts. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Climatic forcing of Quaternary deep-sea benthic communities in the North Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Hunt, G.; Cronin, T. M.; Hokanishi, N.; Kawahata, H.; Tsujimoto, Akira; Ishitake, M.

2012-01-01

There is growing evidence that changes in deep-sea benthic ecosystems are modulated by climate changes, but most evidence to date comes from the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we analyze new ostracod and published foraminiferal records for the last 250,000 years on Shatsky Rise in the North Pacific Ocean. Using linear models, we evaluate statistically the ability of environmental drivers (temperature, productivity, and seasonality of productivity) to predict changes in faunal diversity, abundance, and composition. These microfossil data show glacial-interglacial shifts in overall abundances and species diversities that are low during glacial intervals and high during interglacials. These patterns replicate those previously documented in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting that the climatic forcing of the deep-sea ecosystem is widespread, and possibly global in nature. However, these results also reveal differences with prior studies that probably reflect the isolated nature of Shatsky Rise as a remote oceanic plateau. Ostracod assemblages on Shatsky Rise are highly endemic but of low diversity, consistent with the limited dispersal potential of these animals. Benthic foraminifera, by contrast, have much greater dispersal ability and their assemblages at Shatsky Rise show diversities typical for deep-sea faunas in other regions. Statistical analyses also reveal ostracod-foraminferal differences in relationships between environmental drivers and biotic change. Rarefied diversity is best explained as a hump-shaped function of surface productivity in ostracods, but as having a weak and positive relationship with temperature in foraminifera. Abundance shows a positive relationship with both productivity and seasonality of productivity in foraminifera, and a hump-shaped relationship with productivity in ostracods. Finally, species composition in ostracods is influenced by both temperature and productivity, but only a temperature effect is evident in foraminifera. Though complex in detail, the global-scale link between deep-sea ecosystems and Quaternary climate changes underscores the importance of the interaction between the physical and biological components of paleoceanographical research for better understanding the history of the biosphere.

Indirect Comparisons: A Review of Reporting and Methodological Quality

PubMed Central

Donegan, Sarah; Williamson, Paula; Gamble, Carrol; Tudur-Smith, Catrin

2010-01-01

Background The indirect comparison of two interventions can be valuable in many situations. However, the quality of an indirect comparison will depend on several factors including the chosen methodology and validity of underlying assumptions. Published indirect comparisons are increasingly more common in the medical literature, but as yet, there are no published recommendations of how they should be reported. Our aim is to systematically review the quality of published indirect comparisons to add to existing empirical data suggesting that improvements can be made when reporting and applying indirect comparisons. Methodology/Findings Reviews applying statistical methods to indirectly compare the clinical effectiveness of two interventions using randomised controlled trials were eligible. We searched (1966–2008) Database of Abstracts and Reviews of Effects, The Cochrane library, and Medline. Full review publications were assessed for eligibility. Specific criteria to assess quality were developed and applied. Forty-three reviews were included. Adequate methodology was used to calculate the indirect comparison in 41 reviews. Nineteen reviews assessed the similarity assumption using sensitivity analysis, subgroup analysis, or meta-regression. Eleven reviews compared trial-level characteristics. Twenty-four reviews assessed statistical homogeneity. Twelve reviews investigated causes of heterogeneity. Seventeen reviews included direct and indirect evidence for the same comparison; six reviews assessed consistency. One review combined both evidence types. Twenty-five reviews urged caution in interpretation of results, and 24 reviews indicated when results were from indirect evidence by stating this term with the result. Conclusions This review shows that the underlying assumptions are not routinely explored or reported when undertaking indirect comparisons. We recommend, therefore, that the quality of indirect comparisons should be improved, in particular, by assessing assumptions and reporting the assessment methods applied. We propose that the quality criteria applied in this article may provide a basis to help review authors carry out indirect comparisons and to aid appropriate interpretation. PMID:21085712

Rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

Wang, Shr-Jie; Lengeler, Christian; Smith, Thomas A; Vounatsou, Penelope; Cissé, Guéladio; Diallo, Diadie A; Akogbeto, Martin; Mtasiwa, Deo; Teklehaimanot, Awash; Tanner, Marcel

2005-01-01

Background The rapid urban malaria appraisal (RUMA) methodology aims to provide a cost-effective tool to conduct rapid assessments of the malaria situation in urban sub-Saharan Africa and to improve the understanding of urban malaria epidemiology. Methods This work was done in Yopougon municipality (Abidjan), Cotonou, Dar es Salaam and Ouagadougou. The study design consists of six components: 1) a literature review, 2) the collection of available health statistics, 3) a risk mapping, 4) school parasitaemia surveys, 5) health facility-based surveys and 6) a brief description of the health care system. These formed the basis of a multi-country evaluation of RUMA's feasibility, consistency and usefulness. Results A substantial amount of literature (including unpublished theses and statistics) was found at each site, providing a good overview of the malaria situation. School and health facility-based surveys provided an overview of local endemicity and the overall malaria burden in different city areas. This helped to identify important problems for in-depth assessment, especially the extent to which malaria is over-diagnosed in health facilities. Mapping health facilities and breeding sites allowed the visualization of the complex interplay between population characteristics, health services and malaria risk. However, the latter task was very time-consuming and required special expertise. RUMA is inexpensive, costing around 8,500–13,000 USD for a six to ten-week period. Conclusion RUMA was successfully implemented in four urban areas with different endemicity and proved to be a cost-effective first approach to study the features of urban malaria and provide an evidence basis for planning control measures. PMID:16153298

Development of a Self-Rated Mixed Methods Skills Assessment: The National Institutes of Health Mixed Methods Research Training Program for the Health Sciences.

PubMed

Guetterman, Timothy C; Creswell, John W; Wittink, Marsha; Barg, Fran K; Castro, Felipe G; Dahlberg, Britt; Watkins, Daphne C; Deutsch, Charles; Gallo, Joseph J

2017-01-01

Demand for training in mixed methods is high, with little research on faculty development or assessment in mixed methods. We describe the development of a self-rated mixed methods skills assessment and provide validity evidence. The instrument taps six research domains: "Research question," "Design/approach," "Sampling," "Data collection," "Analysis," and "Dissemination." Respondents are asked to rate their ability to define or explain concepts of mixed methods under each domain, their ability to apply the concepts to problems, and the extent to which they need to improve. We administered the questionnaire to 145 faculty and students using an internet survey. We analyzed descriptive statistics and performance characteristics of the questionnaire using the Cronbach alpha to assess reliability and an analysis of variance that compared a mixed methods experience index with assessment scores to assess criterion relatedness. Internal consistency reliability was high for the total set of items (0.95) and adequate (≥0.71) for all but one subscale. Consistent with establishing criterion validity, respondents who had more professional experiences with mixed methods (eg, published a mixed methods article) rated themselves as more skilled, which was statistically significant across the research domains. This self-rated mixed methods assessment instrument may be a useful tool to assess skills in mixed methods for training programs. It can be applied widely at the graduate and faculty level. For the learner, assessment may lead to enhanced motivation to learn and training focused on self-identified needs. For faculty, the assessment may improve curriculum and course content planning.

Association of a four-locus gene model including IL13, IL4, FCER1B, and ADRB2 with the Asthma Predictive Index and atopy in Chinese Han children.

PubMed

Bai, S; Hua, L; Wang, X; Liu, Q; Bao, Y

2018-05-11

Asthma is a complex and heterogeneous disease. We found that gene-gene interactions among IL13 rs20541, IL4 rs2243250, ADRB2 rs1042713, and FCER1B rs569108 in asthmatic children of Chinese Han nationality. This four-locus set constituted an optimal statistical interaction model. Objective: This study examined associations of the four-gene model consisting of IL13, IL4, FCER1B, and ADRB2 with the Asthma Predictive Index (API) and atopy in Chinese Han children. Four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the four genes were genotyped in 385 preschool children with wheezing symptoms using matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Student's t test and x2 tests were used for this analysis. : Significant correlations were found between the four-locus gene model and the stringent and loose API (both P<0.0001). Additionally, a high-risk asthma genotype was a risk factor for the positive API (stringent API: OR= 4.08, loose API: OR=2.36). We also found a statistically significant association of the four-locus gene model with atopy (P<0.01, OR= 2.09). Our results indicated that the four-locus gene model consisting of L13 rs20541, IL4 rs2243250, ADRB2 rs1042713 and FCER1B rs569108 was associated with the API and atopy. These findings provide an evidence of the gene model for determining a high risk of developing asthma and atopy in Chinese Han children.

Quantitative structure-retention relationships of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons gas-chromatographic retention indices.

PubMed

Drosos, Juan Carlos; Viola-Rhenals, Maricela; Vivas-Reyes, Ricardo

2010-06-25

Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PAHs) are of concern in environmental chemistry and toxicology. In the present work, a QSRR study was performed for 209 previously reported PAHs using quantum mechanics and other sources descriptors estimated by different approaches. The B3LYP/6-31G* level of theory was used for geometrical optimization and quantum mechanics related variables. A good linear relationship between gas-chromatographic retention index and electronic or topologic descriptors was found by stepwise linear regression analysis. The molecular polarizability (alpha) and the second order molecular connectivity Kier and Hall index ((2)chi) showed evidence of significant correlation with retention index by means of important squared coefficient of determination, (R(2)), values (R(2)=0.950 and 0.962, respectively). A one variable QSRR model is presented for each descriptor and both models demonstrates a significant predictive capacity established using the leave-many-out LMO (excluding 25% of rows) cross validation method's q(2) cross-validation coefficients q(2)(CV-LMO25%), (obtained q(2)(CV-LMO25%) 0.947 and 0.960, respectively). Furthermore, the physicochemical interpretation of selected descriptors allowed detailed explanation of the source of the observed statistical correlation. The model analysis suggests that only one descriptor is sufficient to establish a consistent retention index-structure relationship. Moderate or non-significant improve was observed for quantitative results or statistical validation parameters when introducing more terms in predictive equation. The one parameter QSRR proposed model offers a consistent scheme to predict chromatographic properties of PAHs compounds. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematics of wolves in eastern North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nowak, R.; Federoff, N.E.

1996-01-01

Cranial morphology of Recent wolves throughout northern and western North America is remarkably consistent. Statistical analysis indicates the presence of four subspecies of gray wolf (Canis lupus) there, which are always distinguishable from the sympatric coyote (C. latrans). A fifth gray wolf subspecies, lycaon, occurs in southeastern Canada, and the red wolf (C. rufus), is found in the southeast. During the early 1900s the coyote moved east of the prairies and hybridized with the native wolves, thereby creating much confusion. Nonetheless, analysis of every available specimen of wild Canis, dating from before the coyote invasion in the region east of the Mississippi River and south of Wisconsin, Michigan, and New York, does indicate the presence of a small wolf, distinct from the coyote and showing the statistical consistency of other wolf populations. That series also has close affinity to specimens of the red wolf collected in Louisiana and Missouri prior to 1925, and to Pleistocene fossils from the east. There was a sharp line of morphological distinction between the wolves of the eastern United States and those of the prairies, but a closer approach by the former to the subspecies lycaon, which in turn intergrades with gray wolf populations in western Ontario and Minnesota. Although gaps in our knowledge remain, a reasonable hypothesis is that the entire forested region from southeastern Canada to the Gulf Coast originally was inhabited by populations of small wolves, with a subspecific or specific line just south of the eastern Great Lakes. There is no evidence that southeastern North America ever was occupied by large gray wolves and coyotes that hybridized to form the red wolf.

Evaluation of Aneurysm Neck Angle Change After Endovascular Aneurysm Repair Clinical Investigations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le, Trong Binh; Moon, Mi Hyoung; Jeon, Yong Sun, E-mail: radjeon@inha.ac.kr

PurposeTo evaluate the aneurysm neck angle changes and post-endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) complications.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed 72 cases of elective EVAR for abdominal aortic aneurysm among 109 consecutive cases from December 2005 to April 2014. Patients were divided into angulated and non-angulated groups. The angulated group was defined as neck angulation ≥60°. Neck angle was evaluated pre- and post-EVAR during short- (within 1 month), mid- (3–6 months), and long-term (>1 year) follow-up. Aneurysm sac diameter change, aneurysm neck morphology other than angulation, endoleaks, and other post-procedural complications were also documented.ResultsA total of 34 patients were enrolled in the angulated group. There were no statisticalmore » differences in age, sex, follow-up duration, and aneurysm neck profile between the two groups (p > 0.05). Both groups showed statistically significant and consistent decreases in angulation during the follow-up period (p < 0.01). The angulated group revealed 22.45 % more straightening than the non-angulated group. Recoil of the Endurant device occurred in the angulated group. No statistically significant intergroup differences were observed in any endoleaks, complications, or re-intervention rates (p > 0.05). Pre-EVAR angle was the only predictor for post-procedural angle change (p < 0.001).ConclusionEVAR is applicable for patients with highly angulated aneurysm neck and provides consistent neck straightening over long-term follow-up. Recoil was evident in the angulated group using the Endurant device.« less

Tracing prehistoric activities: musculoskeletal stress marker analysis of a Stone-Age population on the island of Gotland in the Baltic sea.

PubMed

Molnar, Petra

2006-01-01

The skeletal remains from the Middle Neolithic (2750-2300 BC) burial ground at Ajvide, Gotland, are analyzed in order to explore musculoskeletal patterns and to attempt to trace general as well as three specific prehistoric activities (archery, harpooning, and kayaking) that are likely to have been performed in this marine setting of fishing, hunting, and gathering. Scoring of muscular and ligament attachments is performed using the scoring method of Hawkey and Merbs ([1995] Int. J. Osteoarchaeol. 5:324-338) for muskuloskeletal stress markers (MSM). The skeletal material consists of 24 male and 15 female adult individuals divided into three age groups: young (<24 years), middle (25-39 years), and old (>40 years). Thirty upper body MSM sites, on both the left and right sides, are scored and form the basis of the study. Results show that males most frequently have higher mean MSM scores than females. Bilateral asymmetry was noted as low in both sexes. Age proved to be a contributing factor to increased MSM scores, with a greater age-related increase in females. MSM patterns were analyzed statistically in muscle groups associated with the three investigated activities. Significant positive correlations were observed in male individuals in muscle groups associated with archery and to some extent harpooning, an indication that these activities would mainly have been performed by men. Correlations in kayaking muscles were not evidently consistent with the kayaking motion. Furthermore, the costoclavicular ligament, often referred to in connection with "kayaker's clavicle," showed no positive statistical correlation with the kayaking muscles.

Temporal pattern of toxicity in runoff from the Tijuana River Watershed.

PubMed

Gersberg, Richard M; Daft, Daniel; Yorkey, Darryl

2004-02-01

Samples were collected from the Tijuana River under both dry weather (baseflow) conditions and during wet weather, and tested for toxicity using Ceriodaphnia dubia tests. Toxicity of waters in the Tijuana River was generally low under baseflow conditions, but increased markedly during high flow runoff events. In order to determine the temporal pattern of toxicity during individual rain events, sequential grab samples were collected using an autosampler at 5-7 h intervals after the start of the rain event, and tested for acute toxicity. In all cases, peak toxicity values (ranging from 2.8 to 5.8TU) for each storm occurred within the first 1-2 h of initiation of the rain event, and were statistically higher (using the 95% CL) for each of the pre-storm base flow values. However, there was no statistically significant correlation (p<0.05) between flow rate and toxicity when all storm data was pooled. Additionally, we used toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) procedures to attempt to identify the classes of chemicals that account for this early storm toxicity. Solid phase extraction was the only treatment that showed consistent and significant (P<0.05) removal of toxicity. These TIEs, conducted on the most toxic sample of the river's flow during runoff events, suggest that non-polar organics may be responsible for such toxicity. The temporal pattern of toxicity, both during a given storm event and seasonally, indicates that wash-off from the watershed by rainfall may deplete the supply of toxicity available for wash-off in subsequent events, so that a clearly consistent relationship between flow and toxicity was not evident.

Alignments of parity even/odd-only multipoles in CMB

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aluri, Pavan K.; Ralston, John P.; Weltman, Amanda

2017-12-01

We compare the statistics of parity even and odd multipoles of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky from Planck full mission temperature measurements. An excess power in odd multipoles compared to even multipoles has previously been found on large angular scales. Motivated by this apparent parity asymmetry, we evaluate directional statistics associated with even compared to odd multipoles, along with their significances. Primary tools are the Power tensor and Alignment tensor statistics. We limit our analysis to the first 60 multipoles i.e. l = [2, 61]. We find no evidence for statistically unusual alignments of even parity multipoles. More than one independent statistic finds evidence for alignments of anisotropy axes of odd multipoles, with a significance equivalent to ∼2σ or more. The robustness of alignment axes is tested by making Galactic cuts and varying the multipole range. Very interestingly, the region spanned by the (a)symmetry axes is found to broadly contain other parity (a)symmetry axes previously observed in the literature.

Whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by a causal structure intervention?

PubMed

McNair, Simon; Feeney, Aidan

2015-02-01

People often struggle when making Bayesian probabilistic estimates on the basis of competing sources of statistical evidence. Recently, Krynski and Tenenbaum (Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136, 430-450, 2007) proposed that a causal Bayesian framework accounts for peoples' errors in Bayesian reasoning and showed that, by clarifying the causal relations among the pieces of evidence, judgments on a classic statistical reasoning problem could be significantly improved. We aimed to understand whose statistical reasoning is facilitated by the causal structure intervention. In Experiment 1, although we observed causal facilitation effects overall, the effect was confined to participants high in numeracy. We did not find an overall facilitation effect in Experiment 2 but did replicate the earlier interaction between numerical ability and the presence or absence of causal content. This effect held when we controlled for general cognitive ability and thinking disposition. Our results suggest that clarifying causal structure facilitates Bayesian judgments, but only for participants with sufficient understanding of basic concepts in probability and statistics.

Willingness to Share Research Data Is Related to the Strength of the Evidence and the Quality of Reporting of Statistical Results

PubMed Central

Wicherts, Jelte M.; Bakker, Marjan; Molenaar, Dylan

2011-01-01

Background The widespread reluctance to share published research data is often hypothesized to be due to the authors' fear that reanalysis may expose errors in their work or may produce conclusions that contradict their own. However, these hypotheses have not previously been studied systematically. Methods and Findings We related the reluctance to share research data for reanalysis to 1148 statistically significant results reported in 49 papers published in two major psychology journals. We found the reluctance to share data to be associated with weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect) and a higher prevalence of apparent errors in the reporting of statistical results. The unwillingness to share data was particularly clear when reporting errors had a bearing on statistical significance. Conclusions Our findings on the basis of psychological papers suggest that statistical results are particularly hard to verify when reanalysis is more likely to lead to contrasting conclusions. This highlights the importance of establishing mandatory data archiving policies. PMID:22073203

Significance levels for studies with correlated test statistics.

PubMed

Shi, Jianxin; Levinson, Douglas F; Whittemore, Alice S

2008-07-01

When testing large numbers of null hypotheses, one needs to assess the evidence against the global null hypothesis that none of the hypotheses is false. Such evidence typically is based on the test statistic of the largest magnitude, whose statistical significance is evaluated by permuting the sample units to simulate its null distribution. Efron (2007) has noted that correlation among the test statistics can induce substantial interstudy variation in the shapes of their histograms, which may cause misleading tail counts. Here, we show that permutation-based estimates of the overall significance level also can be misleading when the test statistics are correlated. We propose that such estimates be conditioned on a simple measure of the spread of the observed histogram, and we provide a method for obtaining conditional significance levels. We justify this conditioning using the conditionality principle described by Cox and Hinkley (1974). Application of the method to gene expression data illustrates the circumstances when conditional significance levels are needed.

Integrated Analysis of Pharmacologic, Clinical, and SNP Microarray Data using Projection onto the Most Interesting Statistical Evidence with Adaptive Permutation Testing

PubMed Central

Pounds, Stan; Cao, Xueyuan; Cheng, Cheng; Yang, Jun; Campana, Dario; Evans, William E.; Pui, Ching-Hon; Relling, Mary V.

2010-01-01

Powerful methods for integrated analysis of multiple biological data sets are needed to maximize interpretation capacity and acquire meaningful knowledge. We recently developed Projection Onto the Most Interesting Statistical Evidence (PROMISE). PROMISE is a statistical procedure that incorporates prior knowledge about the biological relationships among endpoint variables into an integrated analysis of microarray gene expression data with multiple biological and clinical endpoints. Here, PROMISE is adapted to the integrated analysis of pharmacologic, clinical, and genome-wide genotype data that incorporating knowledge about the biological relationships among pharmacologic and clinical response data. An efficient permutation-testing algorithm is introduced so that statistical calculations are computationally feasible in this higher-dimension setting. The new method is applied to a pediatric leukemia data set. The results clearly indicate that PROMISE is a powerful statistical tool for identifying genomic features that exhibit a biologically meaningful pattern of association with multiple endpoint variables. PMID:21516175

Injection therapy for subacute and chronic low-back pain.

PubMed

Staal, J Bart; de Bie, Rob; de Vet, Henrica Cw; Hildebrandt, Jan; Nelemans, Patty

2008-07-16

The effectiveness of injection therapy for low-back pain is still debatable. Heterogeneity of target tissue, pharmacological agent and dosage generally found in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) points to the need for clinically valid comparisons in a literature synthesis. To determine if injection therapy is more effective than placebo or other treatments for patients with subacute or chronic low-back pain. We updated the search of the earlier systematic review and searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from January 1999 to March 2007 for relevant trials reported in English, French, German, Dutch and Nordic languages. We also screened references from trials identified. RCTs on the effects of injection therapy involving epidural, facet or local sites for subacute or chronic low-back pain were included. Studies which compared the effects of intradiscal injections, prolotherapy or Ozone therapy with other treatments, were excluded unless injection therapy with another pharmaceutical agent (no placebo treatment) was part of one of the treatment arms. Studies about injections in sacroiliac joints and studies evaluating the effects of epidural steroids for radicular pain were also excluded. Two review authors independently assessed the quality of the trials. If study data were clinically and statistically too heterogeneous to perform a meta-analysis, we used a best evidence synthesis to summarize the results. The evidence was classified into five levels (strong, moderate, limited, conflicting or no evidence), taking into account the methodological quality of the studies. 18 trials (1179 participants) were included in this updated review. The injection sites varied from epidural sites and facet joints (i.e. intra-articular injections, peri-articular injections and nerve blocks) to local sites (i.e. tender- and trigger points). The drugs that were studied consisted of corticosteroids, local anesthetics and a variety of other drugs. The methodological quality of the trials was limited with 10 out of 18 trials rated as having a high methodological quality. Statistical pooling was not possible due to clinical heterogeneity in the trials. Overall, the results indicated that there is no strong evidence for or against the use of any type of injection therapy. There is insufficient evidence to support the use of injection therapy in subacute and chronic low-back pain. However, it cannot be ruled out that specific subgroups of patients may respond to a specific type of injection therapy.

Attentional and Contextual Priors in Sound Perception.

PubMed

Wolmetz, Michael; Elhilali, Mounya

2016-01-01

Behavioral and neural studies of selective attention have consistently demonstrated that explicit attentional cues to particular perceptual features profoundly alter perception and performance. The statistics of the sensory environment can also provide cues about what perceptual features to expect, but the extent to which these more implicit contextual cues impact perception and performance, as well as their relationship to explicit attentional cues, is not well understood. In this study, the explicit cues, or attentional prior probabilities, and the implicit cues, or contextual prior probabilities, associated with different acoustic frequencies in a detection task were simultaneously manipulated. Both attentional and contextual priors had similarly large but independent impacts on sound detectability, with evidence that listeners tracked and used contextual priors for a variety of sound classes (pure tones, harmonic complexes, and vowels). Further analyses showed that listeners updated their contextual priors rapidly and optimally, given the changing acoustic frequency statistics inherent in the paradigm. A Bayesian Observer model accounted for both attentional and contextual adaptations found with listeners. These results bolster the interpretation of perception as Bayesian inference, and suggest that some effects attributed to selective attention may be a special case of contextual prior integration along a feature axis.

Impact of Temperature and Non-Gaussian Statistics on Electron Transfer in Donor-Bridge-Acceptor Molecules.

PubMed

Waskasi, Morteza M; Newton, Marshall D; Matyushov, Dmitry V

2017-03-30

A combination of experimental data and theoretical analysis provides evidence of a bell-shaped kinetics of electron transfer in the Arrhenius coordinates ln k vs 1/T. This kinetic law is a temperature analogue of the familiar Marcus bell-shaped dependence based on ln k vs the reaction free energy. These results were obtained for reactions of intramolecular charge shift between the donor and acceptor separated by a rigid spacer studied experimentally by Miller and co-workers. The non-Arrhenius kinetic law is a direct consequence of the solvent reorganization energy and reaction driving force changing approximately as hyperbolic functions with temperature. The reorganization energy decreases and the driving force increases when temperature is increased. The point of equality between them marks the maximum of the activationless reaction rate. Reaching the consistency between the kinetic and thermodynamic experimental data requires the non-Gaussian statistics of the donor-acceptor energy gap described by the Q-model of electron transfer. The theoretical formalism combines the vibrational envelope of quantum vibronic transitions with the Q-model describing the classical component of the Franck-Condon factor and a microscopic solvation model of the solvent reorganization energy and the reaction free energy.

Cross Contamination: Are Hospital Gloves Reservoirs for Nosocomial Infections?

PubMed

Moran, Vicki; Heuertz, Rita

2017-01-01

Use of disposable nonsterile gloves in the hospital setting is second only to proper hand washing in reducing contamination during patient contact. Because proper handwashing is not consistently practiced, added emphasis on glove use is warranted. There is a growing body of evidence that glove boxes and dispensers available to healthcare workers are contaminated by daily exposure to environmental organisms. This finding, in conjunction with new and emerging antibiotic-resistant bacteria, poses a threat to patients and healthcare workers alike. A newly designed glove dispenser may reduce contamination of disposable gloves. The authors investigated contamination of nonsterile examination gloves in an Emergency Department setting according to the type of dispenser used to access gloves. A statistically significant difference existed between the number of bacterial colonies and the type of dispenser: the downward-facing glove dispenser had a lower number of bacteria on the gloves. There was no statistically significant difference in the number of gloves contaminated between the two types of glove dispensers. The study demonstrated that contamination of disposable gloves existed. Additional research using a larger sample size would validate a difference in the contamination of disposable gloves using outward or downward glove dispensers.

Probing features in the primordial perturbation spectrum with large-scale structure data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

L'Huillier, Benjamin; Shafieloo, Arman; Hazra, Dhiraj Kumar; Smoot, George F.; Starobinsky, Alexei A.

2018-06-01

The form of the primordial power spectrum (PPS) of cosmological scalar (matter density) perturbations is not yet constrained satisfactorily in spite of the tremendous amount of information from the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data. While a smooth power-law-like form of the PPS is consistent with the CMB data, some PPSs with small non-smooth features at large scales can also fit the CMB temperature and polarization data with similar statistical evidence. Future CMB surveys cannot help distinguish all such models due to the cosmic variance at large angular scales. In this paper, we study how well we can differentiate between such featured forms of the PPS not otherwise distinguishable using CMB data. We ran 15 N-body DESI-like simulations of these models to explore this approach. Showing that statistics such as the halo mass function and the two-point correlation function are not able to distinguish these models in a DESI-like survey, we advocate to avoid reducing the dimensionality of the problem by demonstrating that the use of a simple three-dimensional count-in-cell density field can be much more effective for the purpose of model distinction.

Rydberg Atoms in Strong Fields: a Testing Ground for Quantum Chaos.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courtney, Michael

1995-01-01

Rydberg atoms in strong static electric and magnetic fields provide experimentally accessible systems for studying the connections between classical chaos and quantum mechanics in the semiclassical limit. This experimental accessibility has motivated the development of reliable quantum mechanical solutions. This thesis uses both experimental and computed quantum spectra to test the central approaches to quantum chaos. These central approaches consist mainly of developing methods to compute the spectra of quantum systems in non -perturbative regimes, correlating statistical descriptions of eigenvalues with the classical behavior of the same Hamiltonian, and the development of semiclassical methods such as periodic-orbit theory. Particular emphasis is given to identifying the spectral signature of recurrences --quantum wave packets which follow classical orbits. The new findings include: the breakdown of the connection between energy-level statistics and classical chaos in odd-parity diamagnetic lithium, the discovery of the signature of very long period orbits in atomic spectra, quantitative evidence for the scattering of recurrences by the alkali -metal core, quantitative description of the behavior of recurrences near bifurcations, and a semiclassical interpretation of the evolution of continuum Stark spectra. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.).

Bilirubin and Stroke Risk Using a Mendelian Randomization Design.

PubMed

Lee, Sun Ju; Jee, Yon Ho; Jung, Keum Ji; Hong, Seri; Shin, Eun Soon; Jee, Sun Ha

2017-05-01

Circulating bilirubin, a natural antioxidant, is associated with decreased risk of stroke. However, the nature of the relationship between the two remains unknown. We used a Mendelian randomization analysis to assess the causal effect of serum bilirubin on stroke risk in Koreans. The 14 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (<10 -7 ) including rs6742078 of uridine diphosphoglucuronyl-transferase were selected from genome-wide association study of bilirubin level in the KCPS-II (Korean Cancer Prevention Study-II) Biobank subcohort consisting of 4793 healthy Korean and 806 stroke cases. Weighted genetic risk score was calculated using 14 SNPs selected from the top SNPs. Both rs6742078 (F statistics=138) and weighted genetic risk score with 14 SNPs (F statistics=187) were strongly associated with bilirubin levels. Simultaneously, serum bilirubin level was associated with decreased risk of stroke in an ordinary least-squares analysis. However, in 2-stage least-squares Mendelian randomization analysis, no causal relationship between serum bilirubin and stroke risk was found. There is no evidence that bilirubin level is causally associated with risk of stroke in Koreans. Therefore, bilirubin level is not a risk determinant of stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

The role of perioperative oral nutritional supplementation in elderly patients after hip surgery.

PubMed

Liu, Ming; Yang, Jing; Yu, Xi; Huang, Xiao; Vaidya, Sushan; Huang, Fuguo; Xiang, Zhou

2015-01-01

The effect of perioperative oral nutritional supplementation (ONS) on elderly patients after hip surgery remains controversial. This study intended to ascertain whether perioperative ONS is beneficial for the rehabilitation of elderly patients after hip surgery. We searched databases including PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for articles published up to May 2014. Randomized controlled trials of ONS for elderly patients after hip surgery were included. The combined trials showed that ONS had a positive effect on the serum total protein (P<0.00001) and led to a significantly decreased number of complications (P=0.0005). Furthermore, data from the infection subgroups showed significant decreases in wound infection (P=0.02), respiratory infection (P=0.04), and urinary tract infection (P=0.03). Clinical observation suggests that the intervention may improve the level of serum albumin, although the data did not reach statistical significance (P=0.48). Regarding mortality, there was no significant statistical difference between the intervention group and the control (P=0.93). Based on the evidence available, this meta-analysis is consistent with the hypothesis that perioperative ONS can help elderly patients recover after hip surgery and reduce complications.

The efficacy of methadone maintenance interventions in reducing illicit opiate use, HIV risk behavior and criminality: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Marsch, L A

1998-04-01

To provide empirically based evaluation data regarding the efficacy of psychopharmacological interventions in opiate substance abuse, the present study employed meta-analytic statistical procedures to determine the effectiveness of methadone hydrochloride as a pharmacotherapeutic agent. Empirical research findings from 11 studies investigating the effect of methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) on illicit opiate use, and eight and 24 studies investigating the effect of MMT on HIV risk behaviors and criminal activities, respectively, by individuals in such treatment were addressed. Results demonstrate a consistent, statistically significant relationship between MMT and the reduction of illicit opiate use, HIV risk behaviors and drug and property-related criminal behaviors. The effectiveness of MMT is most apparent in its ability to reduce drug-related criminal behaviors. MMT had a moderate effect in reducing illicit opiate use and drug and property-related criminal behaviors, and a small to moderate effect in reducing HIV risk behaviors. Results clarify discrepancies in the literature and are useful in predicting the outcomes of individuals in treatment. The treatment's effectiveness is evident among opiate-dependent individuals across a variety of contexts, cultural and ethnic groups, and study designs.

In Situ Observation of Intermittent Dissipation at Kinetic Scales in the Earth's Magnetosheath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chasapis, Alexandros; Matthaeus, W. H.; Parashar, T. N.; Wan, M.; Haggerty, C. C.; Pollock, C. J.; Giles, B. L.; Paterson, W. R.; Dorelli, J.; Gershman, D. J.; Torbert, R. B.; Russell, C. T.; Lindqvist, P.-A.; Khotyaintsev, Y.; Moore, T. E.; Ergun, R. E.; Burch, J. L.

2018-03-01

We present a study of signatures of energy dissipation at kinetic scales in plasma turbulence based on observations by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission (MMS) in the Earth’s magnetosheath. Using several intervals, and taking advantage of the high-resolution instrumentation on board MMS, we compute and discuss several statistical measures of coherent structures and heating associated with electrons, at previously unattainable scales in space and time. We use the multi-spacecraft Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) technique to study the intermittent structure of the magnetic field. Furthermore, we examine a measure of dissipation and its behavior with respect to the PVI as well as the current density. Additionally, we analyze the evolution of the anisotropic electron temperature and non-Maxwellian features of the particle distribution function. From these diagnostics emerges strong statistical evidence that electrons are preferentially heated in subproton-scale regions of strong electric current density, and this heating is preferentially in the parallel direction relative to the local magnetic field. Accordingly, the conversion of magnetic energy into electron kinetic energy occurs more strongly in regions of stronger current density, a finding consistent with several kinetic plasma simulation studies and hinted at by prior studies using lower resolution Cluster observations.

The Effectiveness of Computer-Assisted Instruction to Teach Physical Examination to Students and Trainees in the Health Sciences Professions: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Tomesko, Jennifer; Touger-Decker, Riva; Dreker, Margaret; Zelig, Rena; Parrott, James Scott

2017-01-01

Purpose: To explore knowledge and skill acquisition outcomes related to learning physical examination (PE) through computer-assisted instruction (CAI) compared with a face-to-face (F2F) approach. Method: A systematic literature review and meta-analysis published between January 2001 and December 2016 was conducted. Databases searched included Medline, Cochrane, CINAHL, ERIC, Ebsco, Scopus, and Web of Science. Studies were synthesized by study design, intervention, and outcomes. Statistical analyses included DerSimonian-Laird random-effects model. Results: In total, 7 studies were included in the review, and 5 in the meta-analysis. There were no statistically significant differences for knowledge (mean difference [MD] = 5.39, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −2.05 to 12.84) or skill acquisition (MD = 0.35, 95% CI: −5.30 to 6.01). Conclusions: The evidence does not suggest a strong consistent preference for either CAI or F2F instruction to teach students/trainees PE. Further research is needed to identify conditions which examine knowledge and skill acquisition outcomes that favor one mode of instruction over the other. PMID:29349338

Gestational surrogacy: Viewpoint of Iranian infertile women.

PubMed

Rahmani, Azad; Sattarzadeh, Nilofar; Gholizadeh, Leila; Sheikhalipour, Zahra; Allahbakhshian, Atefeh; Hassankhani, Hadi

2011-09-01

Surrogacy is a popular form of assisted reproductive technology of which only gestational form is approved by most of the religious scholars in Iran. Little evidence exists about the Iranian infertile women's viewpoint regarding gestational surrogacy. To assess the viewpoint of Iranian infertile women toward gestational surrogacy. This descriptive study was conducted at the infertility clinic of Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, Iran. The study sample consisted of 238 infertile women who were selected using the eligible sampling method. Data were collected by using a researcher developed questionnaire that included 25 items based on a five-point Likert scale. Data analysis was conducted by SPSS statistical software using descriptive statistics. Viewpoint of 214 women (89.9%) was positive. 36 (15.1%) women considered gestational surrogacy against their religious beliefs; 170 women (71.4%) did not assume the commissioning couple as owners of the baby; 160 women (67.2%) said that children who were born through surrogacy would better not know about it; and 174 women (73.1%) believed that children born through surrogacy will face mental problems. Iranian infertile women have positive viewpoint regarding the surrogacy. However, to increase the acceptability of surrogacy among infertile women, further efforts are needed.

Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping by Inversion of a Perturbation Field Model: Correlation with Brain Iron in Normal Aging

PubMed Central

Poynton, Clare; Jenkinson, Mark; Adalsteinsson, Elfar; Sullivan, Edith V.; Pfefferbaum, Adolf; Wells, William

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence that iron deposition occurs in specific regions of the brain in normal aging and neurodegenerative disorders such as Parkinson's, Huntington's, and Alzheimer's disease. Iron deposition changes the magnetic susceptibility of tissue, which alters the MR signal phase, and allows estimation of susceptibility differences using quantitative susceptibility mapping (QSM). We present a method for quantifying susceptibility by inversion of a perturbation model, or ‘QSIP’. The perturbation model relates phase to susceptibility using a kernel calculated in the spatial domain, in contrast to previous Fourier-based techniques. A tissue/air susceptibility atlas is used to estimate B0 inhomogeneity. QSIP estimates in young and elderly subjects are compared to postmortem iron estimates, maps of the Field-Dependent Relaxation Rate Increase (FDRI), and the L1-QSM method. Results for both groups showed excellent agreement with published postmortem data and in-vivo FDRI: statistically significant Spearman correlations ranging from Rho = 0.905 to Rho = 1.00 were obtained. QSIP also showed improvement over FDRI and L1-QSM: reduced variance in susceptibility estimates and statistically significant group differences were detected in striatal and brainstem nuclei, consistent with age-dependent iron accumulation in these regions. PMID:25248179

The Promises and Pitfalls of Genoeconomics*

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel J.; Cesarini, David; Chabris, Christopher F.; Glaeser, Edward L.; Laibson, David I.; Guðnason, Vilmundur; Harris, Tamara B.; Launer, Lenore J.; Purcell, Shaun; Smith, Albert Vernon; Johannesson, Magnus; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Beauchamp, Jonathan P.; Christakis, Nicholas A.; Atwood, Craig S.; Hebert, Benjamin; Freese, Jeremy; Hauser, Robert M.; Hauser, Taissa S.; Grankvist, Alexander; Hultman, Christina M.; Lichtenstein, Paul

2012-01-01

This article reviews existing research at the intersection of genetics and economics, presents some new findings that illustrate the state of genoeconomics research, and surveys the prospects of this emerging field. Twin studies suggest that economic outcomes and preferences, once corrected for measurement error, appear to be about as heritable as many medical conditions and personality traits. Consistent with this pattern, we present new evidence on the heritability of permanent income and wealth. Turning to genetic association studies, we survey the main ways that the direct measurement of genetic variation across individuals is likely to contribute to economics, and we outline the challenges that have slowed progress in making these contributions. The most urgent problem facing researchers in this field is that most existing efforts to find associations between genetic variation and economic behavior are based on samples that are too small to ensure adequate statistical power. This has led to many false positives in the literature. We suggest a number of possible strategies to improve and remedy this problem: (a) pooling data sets, (b) using statistical techniques that exploit the greater information content of many genes considered jointly, and (c) focusing on economically relevant traits that are most proximate to known biological mechanisms. PMID:23482589

Covariations in ecological scaling laws fostered by community dynamics.

PubMed

Zaoli, Silvia; Giometto, Andrea; Maritan, Amos; Rinaldo, Andrea

2017-10-03

Scaling laws in ecology, intended both as functional relationships among ecologically relevant quantities and the probability distributions that characterize their occurrence, have long attracted the interest of empiricists and theoreticians. Empirical evidence exists of power laws associated with the number of species inhabiting an ecosystem, their abundances, and traits. Although their functional form appears to be ubiquitous, empirical scaling exponents vary with ecosystem type and resource supply rate. The idea that ecological scaling laws are linked has been entertained before, but the full extent of macroecological pattern covariations, the role of the constraints imposed by finite resource supply, and a comprehensive empirical verification are still unexplored. Here, we propose a theoretical scaling framework that predicts the linkages of several macroecological patterns related to species' abundances and body sizes. We show that such a framework is consistent with the stationary-state statistics of a broad class of resource-limited community dynamics models, regardless of parameterization and model assumptions. We verify predicted theoretical covariations by contrasting empirical data and provide testable hypotheses for yet unexplored patterns. We thus place the observed variability of ecological scaling exponents into a coherent statistical framework where patterns in ecology embed constrained fluctuations.

Qualitative and quantitative aspects of pain in lateral posterior thoracotomy patients.

PubMed

Xavier, Thaiza Teixeira; Torres, Gilson de Vasconcelos; da Rocha, Vera Maria

2006-01-01

Descriptive study that proposed to compare the qualitative and quantitative behavior of the pain in lateral posterior thoracotomy patients. The sample was consisted of 18 individuals with an average age of 44 years. The instruments used were physiotherapy evaluation form, numerical pain scale and McGill questionnaire for pain. The pain on the numerical pain scale was considered moderate(5) for both sexes. The descriptors of the McGill questionnaire choosen by the patients with higher frequency were: in the sensorial component, beat4, pointed1, shock2, final and pull2; in the afetive component, tired1, bored1, punishald1 and miserable1 and in the evaluative component was flat. The characteristics of pain in the sensorial group were more evidents on male group. No significant statistical difeferences were observed between quantitative answers concerning pain between the men and women. On the qualitative aspects , was observed an predominancy of the same descriptors of pain in afetive component for both sexes. Pain intensity was categorized as moderate. No significant statistical difference were observed between the pain on the post-operatory lateral posterior thoracotomy. These data demonstrate a necessity for an analysis with a larger study group.

Attentional and Contextual Priors in Sound Perception

PubMed Central

Wolmetz, Michael; Elhilali, Mounya

2016-01-01

Behavioral and neural studies of selective attention have consistently demonstrated that explicit attentional cues to particular perceptual features profoundly alter perception and performance. The statistics of the sensory environment can also provide cues about what perceptual features to expect, but the extent to which these more implicit contextual cues impact perception and performance, as well as their relationship to explicit attentional cues, is not well understood. In this study, the explicit cues, or attentional prior probabilities, and the implicit cues, or contextual prior probabilities, associated with different acoustic frequencies in a detection task were simultaneously manipulated. Both attentional and contextual priors had similarly large but independent impacts on sound detectability, with evidence that listeners tracked and used contextual priors for a variety of sound classes (pure tones, harmonic complexes, and vowels). Further analyses showed that listeners updated their contextual priors rapidly and optimally, given the changing acoustic frequency statistics inherent in the paradigm. A Bayesian Observer model accounted for both attentional and contextual adaptations found with listeners. These results bolster the interpretation of perception as Bayesian inference, and suggest that some effects attributed to selective attention may be a special case of contextual prior integration along a feature axis. PMID:26882228

Interval Timing Accuracy and Scalar Timing in C57BL/6 Mice

PubMed Central

Buhusi, Catalin V.; Aziz, Dyana; Winslow, David; Carter, Rickey E.; Swearingen, Joshua E.; Buhusi, Mona C.

2010-01-01

In many species, interval timing behavior is accurate—appropriate estimated durations—and scalar—errors vary linearly with estimated durations. While accuracy has been previously examined, scalar timing has not been yet clearly demonstrated in house mice (Mus musculus), raising concerns about mouse models of human disease. We estimated timing accuracy and precision in C57BL/6 mice, the most used background strain for genetic models of human disease, in a peak-interval procedure with multiple intervals. Both when timing two intervals (Experiment 1) or three intervals (Experiment 2), C57BL/6 mice demonstrated varying degrees of timing accuracy. Importantly, both at individual and group level, their precision varied linearly with the subjective estimated duration. Further evidence for scalar timing was obtained using an intraclass correlation statistic. This is the first report of consistent, reliable scalar timing in a sizable sample of house mice, thus validating the PI procedure as a valuable technique, the intraclass correlation statistic as a powerful test of the scalar property, and the C57BL/6 strain as a suitable background for behavioral investigations of genetically engineered mice modeling disorders of interval timing. PMID:19824777

Use of Statistical Analysis of Acoustic Emission Data on Carbon-Epoxy COPV Materials-of-Construction for Enhanced Felicity Ratio Onset Determination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Arick Reed A.; Johnson, Kenneth L.; Nichols, Charles T.; Saulsberry, Regor L.; Waller, Jess M.

2012-01-01

Broadband modal acoustic emission (AE) data were acquired during intermittent load hold tensile test profiles on Toray T1000G carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy (C/Ep) single tow specimens. A novel trend seeking statistical method to determine the onset of significant AE was developed, resulting in more linear decreases in the Felicity ratio (FR) with load, potentially leading to more accurate failure prediction. The method developed uses an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Comparison of the EWMA with previously used FR onset methods, namely the discrete (n), mean (n (raised bar)), normalized (n%) and normalized mean (n(raised bar)%) methods, revealed the EWMA method yields more consistently linear FR versus load relationships between specimens. Other findings include a correlation between AE data richness and FR linearity based on the FR methods discussed in this paper, and evidence of premature failure at lower than expected loads. Application of the EWMA method should be extended to other composite materials and, eventually, composite components such as composite overwrapped pressure vessels. Furthermore, future experiments should attempt to uncover the factors responsible for infant mortality in C/Ep strands.

Effects of an Evidence-Based Text on Scepticism, Methodological Reasoning, Values and Juror Decision-Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leshowitz, Barry; Okun, Morris

2011-01-01

Research in social cognition laboratories and in simulated legal settings demonstrates that people often do not understand the statistical properties of evidence and are unable to detect scientifically flawed studies. In a mock jury study, we examined the effects of an evidence-based transcript on scepticism towards evidence obtained in flawed…

Five Years Later: A Look at Building and Triangulating Evidence in a School Library

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yutzey, Susan D.

2010-01-01

Participating in an evidence-based practice workshop in 2005 was a transforming experience for the author. She realized that the traditional statistics that she had painstakingly gathered and recorded for her annual report did not provide evidence of actual learning. Evidence acquired through assessment, both formative and summative, provides the…

Revisiting inconsistency in large pharmacogenomic studies

PubMed Central

Safikhani, Zhaleh; Smirnov, Petr; Freeman, Mark; El-Hachem, Nehme; She, Adrian; Rene, Quevedo; Goldenberg, Anna; Birkbak, Nicolai J.; Hatzis, Christos; Shi, Leming; Beck, Andrew H.; Aerts, Hugo J.W.L.; Quackenbush, John; Haibe-Kains, Benjamin

2017-01-01

In 2013, we published a comparative analysis of mutation and gene expression profiles and drug sensitivity measurements for 15 drugs characterized in the 471 cancer cell lines screened in the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) and Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE). While we found good concordance in gene expression profiles, there was substantial inconsistency in the drug responses reported by the GDSC and CCLE projects. We received extensive feedback on the comparisons that we performed. This feedback, along with the release of new data, prompted us to revisit our initial analysis. We present a new analysis using these expanded data, where we address the most significant suggestions for improvements on our published analysis — that targeted therapies and broad cytotoxic drugs should have been treated differently in assessing consistency, that consistency of both molecular profiles and drug sensitivity measurements should be compared across cell lines, and that the software analysis tools provided should have been easier to run, particularly as the GDSC and CCLE released additional data. Our re-analysis supports our previous finding that gene expression data are significantly more consistent than drug sensitivity measurements. Using new statistics to assess data consistency allowed identification of two broad effect drugs and three targeted drugs with moderate to good consistency in drug sensitivity data between GDSC and CCLE. For three other targeted drugs, there were not enough sensitive cell lines to assess the consistency of the pharmacological profiles. We found evidence of inconsistencies in pharmacological phenotypes for the remaining eight drugs. Overall, our findings suggest that the drug sensitivity data in GDSC and CCLE continue to present challenges for robust biomarker discovery. This re-analysis provides additional support for the argument that experimental standardization and validation of pharmacogenomic response will be necessary to advance the broad use of large pharmacogenomic screens. PMID:28928933

An Accumulation-of-Evidence Task Using Visual Pulses for Mice Navigating in Virtual Reality

PubMed Central

Pinto, Lucas; Koay, Sue A.; Engelhard, Ben; Yoon, Alice M.; Deverett, Ben; Thiberge, Stephan Y.; Witten, Ilana B.; Tank, David W.; Brody, Carlos D.

2018-01-01

The gradual accumulation of sensory evidence is a crucial component of perceptual decision making, but its neural mechanisms are still poorly understood. Given the wide availability of genetic and optical tools for mice, they can be useful model organisms for the study of these phenomena; however, behavioral tools are largely lacking. Here, we describe a new evidence-accumulation task for head-fixed mice navigating in a virtual reality (VR) environment. As they navigate down the stem of a virtual T-maze, they see brief pulses of visual evidence on either side, and retrieve a reward on the arm with the highest number of pulses. The pulses occur randomly with Poisson statistics, yielding a diverse yet well-controlled stimulus set, making the data conducive to a variety of computational approaches. A large number of mice of different genotypes were able to learn and consistently perform the task, at levels similar to rats in analogous tasks. They are sensitive to side differences of a single pulse, and their memory of the cues is stable over time. Moreover, using non-parametric as well as modeling approaches, we show that the mice indeed accumulate evidence: they use multiple pulses of evidence from throughout the cue region of the maze to make their decision, albeit with a small overweighting of earlier cues, and their performance is affected by the magnitude but not the duration of evidence. Additionally, analysis of the mice's running patterns revealed that trajectories are fairly stereotyped yet modulated by the amount of sensory evidence, suggesting that the navigational component of this task may provide a continuous readout correlated to the underlying cognitive variables. Our task, which can be readily integrated with state-of-the-art techniques, is thus a valuable tool to study the circuit mechanisms and dynamics underlying perceptual decision making, particularly under more complex behavioral contexts. PMID:29559900

A complete sample of double-lobed radio quasars for VLBI tests of source models - Definition and statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hough, D. H.; Readhead, A. C. S.

1989-01-01

A complete, flux-density-limited sample of double-lobed radio quasars is defined, with nuclei bright enough to be mapped with the Mark III VLBI system. It is shown that the statistics of linear size, nuclear strength, and curvature are consistent with the assumption of random source orientations and simple relativistic beaming in the nuclei. However, these statistics are also consistent with the effects of interaction between the beams and the surrounding medium. The distribution of jet velocities in the nuclei, as measured with VLBI, will provide a powerful test of physical theories of extragalactic radio sources.

Intermediate/Advanced Research Design and Statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ploutz-Snyder, Robert

2009-01-01

The purpose of this module is To provide Institutional Researchers (IRs) with an understanding of the principles of advanced research design and the intermediate/advanced statistical procedures consistent with such designs

Statistical evidence for common ancestry: Application to primates.

PubMed

Baum, David A; Ané, Cécile; Larget, Bret; Solís-Lemus, Claudia; Ho, Lam Si Tung; Boone, Peggy; Drummond, Chloe P; Bontrager, Martin; Hunter, Steven J; Saucier, William

2016-06-01

Since Darwin, biologists have come to recognize that the theory of descent from common ancestry (CA) is very well supported by diverse lines of evidence. However, while the qualitative evidence is overwhelming, we also need formal methods for quantifying the evidential support for CA over the alternative hypothesis of separate ancestry (SA). In this article, we explore a diversity of statistical methods using data from the primates. We focus on two alternatives to CA, species SA (the separate origin of each named species) and family SA (the separate origin of each family). We implemented statistical tests based on morphological, molecular, and biogeographic data and developed two new methods: one that tests for phylogenetic autocorrelation while correcting for variation due to confounding ecological traits and a method for examining whether fossil taxa have fewer derived differences than living taxa. We overwhelmingly rejected both species and family SA with infinitesimal P values. We compare these results with those from two companion papers, which also found tremendously strong support for the CA of all primates, and discuss future directions and general philosophical issues that pertain to statistical testing of historical hypotheses such as CA. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Unobserved time effects confound the identification of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Vincent, Jeffrey R

2012-07-24

A recent study by Feng et al. [Feng S, Krueger A, Oppenheimer M (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14257-14262] in PNAS reported statistical evidence of a weather-driven causal effect of crop yields on human migration from Mexico to the United States. We show that this conclusion is based on a different statistical model than the one stated in the paper. When we correct for this mistake, there is no evidence of a causal link.

How the Mastery Rubric for Statistical Literacy Can Generate Actionable Evidence about Statistical and Quantitative Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tractenberg, Rochelle E.

2017-01-01

Statistical literacy is essential to an informed citizenry; and two emerging trends highlight a growing need for training that achieves this literacy. The first trend is towards "big" data: while automated analyses can exploit massive amounts of data, the interpretation--and possibly more importantly, the replication--of results are…

Why Are People Bad at Detecting Randomness? A Statistical Argument

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Joseph J.; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2013-01-01

Errors in detecting randomness are often explained in terms of biases and misconceptions. We propose and provide evidence for an account that characterizes the contribution of the inherent statistical difficulty of the task. Our account is based on a Bayesian statistical analysis, focusing on the fact that a random process is a special case of…

Teaching Statistics--Despite Its Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ridgway, Jim; Nicholson, James; McCusker, Sean

2007-01-01

Evidence-based policy requires sophisticated modelling and reasoning about complex social data. The current UK statistics curricula do not equip tomorrow's citizens to understand such reasoning. We advocate radical curriculum reform, designed to require students to reason from complex data.

Bayes Ice-Breaker

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jessop, Alan

2010-01-01

Showing simply how statistical thinking can help in weighing evidence and reaching decisions can be useful both as an introduction to an extended presentation of statistical theory and as an introduction to a looser discussion of the nature and value of data.

The social construction of "evidence-based'' drug prevention programs: a reanalysis of data from the Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) program.

PubMed

Gorman, Dennis M; Huber, J Charles

2009-08-01

This study explores the possibility that any drug prevention program might be considered ;;evidence-based'' given the use of data analysis procedures that optimize the chance of producing statistically significant results by reanalyzing data from a Drug Abuse Resistance Education (DARE) program evaluation. The analysis produced a number of statistically significant differences between the DARE and control conditions on alcohol and marijuana use measures. Many of these differences occurred at cutoff points on the assessment scales for which post hoc meaningful labels were created. Our results are compared to those from evaluations of programs that appear on evidence-based drug prevention lists.

Are cosmological data sets consistent with each other within the Λ cold dark matter model?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raveri, Marco

2016-02-01

We use a complete and rigorous statistical indicator to measure the level of concordance between cosmological data sets, without relying on the inspection of the marginal posterior distribution of some selected parameters. We apply this test to state of the art cosmological data sets, to assess their agreement within the Λ cold dark matter model. We find that there is a good level of concordance between all the experiments with one noticeable exception. There is substantial evidence of tension between the cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization measurements of the Planck satellite and the data from the CFHTLenS weak lensing survey even when applying ultraconservative cuts. These results robustly point toward the possibility of having unaccounted systematic effects in the data, an incomplete modeling of the cosmological predictions or hints toward new physical phenomena.

Reactive intermediates in 4He nanodroplets: Infrared laser Stark spectroscopy of dihydroxycarbene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broderick, Bernadette M.; McCaslin, Laura; Moradi, Christopher P.; Stanton, John F.; Douberly, Gary E.

2015-04-01

Singlet dihydroxycarbene ( HO C ̈ OH ) is produced via pyrolytic decomposition of oxalic acid, captured by helium nanodroplets, and probed with infrared laser Stark spectroscopy. Rovibrational bands in the OH stretch region are assigned to either trans,trans- or trans,cis-rotamers on the basis of symmetry type, nuclear spin statistical weights, and comparisons to electronic structure theory calculations. Stark spectroscopy provides the inertial components of the permanent electric dipole moments for these rotamers. The dipole components for trans, trans- and trans, cis-rotamers are (μa, μb) = (0.00, 0.68(6)) and (1.63(3), 1.50(5)), respectively. The infrared spectra lack evidence for the higher energy cis,cis-rotamer, which is consistent with a previously proposed pyrolytic decomposition mechanism of oxalic acid and computations of HO C ̈ OH torsional interconversion and tautomerization barriers.

Assessing Counter-Terrorism field training with multiple behavioral measures.

PubMed

Spiker, V Alan; Johnston, Joan H

2013-09-01

Development of behavioral pattern recognition and analysis skills is an essential element of Counter-Terrorism training, particularly in the field. Three classes of behavioral measures were collected in an assessment of skill acquisition during a US Joint Forces Command-sponsored course consisting of Combat Tracking and Combat Profiling segments. Measures included situational judgment tests, structured behavioral observation checklists, and qualitative assessments of the emergence of specific knowledge-skills-attitudes over the course of the training. The paper describes statistical evidence across the three types of measures that indicate that behavioral pattern recognition and analysis skills were successfully acquired by most students (a mix of Army and civilian law enforcement personnel) during the field training exercises. Implications for broader training of these critical skills are also discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Trends in Mediation Analysis in Nursing Research: Improving Current Practice.

PubMed

Hertzog, Melody

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to describe common approaches used by nursing researchers to test mediation models and evaluate them within the context of current methodological advances. MEDLINE was used to locate studies testing a mediation model and published from 2004 to 2015 in nursing journals. Design (experimental/correlation, cross-sectional/longitudinal, model complexity) and analysis (method, inclusion of test of mediated effect, violations/discussion of assumptions, sample size/power) characteristics were coded for 456 studies. General trends were identified using descriptive statistics. Consistent with findings of reviews in other disciplines, evidence was found that nursing researchers may not be aware of the strong assumptions and serious limitations of their analyses. Suggestions for strengthening the rigor of such studies and an overview of current methods for testing more complex models, including longitudinal mediation processes, are presented.

Validity and reliability of a Nigerian-Yoruba version of the stroke-specific quality of life scale 2.0.

PubMed

Odetunde, Marufat Oluyemisi; Akinpelu, Aderonke Omobonike; Odole, Adesola Christiana

2017-10-19

Psychometric evidence is necessary to establish scientific integrity and clinical usefulness of translations and cultural adaptations of the Stroke-Specific Quality of Life (SS-QoL) scale. However, the limited evidence on psychometrics of Yoruba version of SS-QoL 2.0 (SS-QoL(Y)) is a significant shortcoming. This study assessed the test-retest reliability, internal consistency, convergent, divergent, discriminant and known-group validity of the SS-QoL(Y). Yoruba version of the WHOQoL-BREF was used to test the convergent and divergent validity of the SS-QoL(Y) among 100 consenting stroke survivors. The WHOQoL-BREF and SS-QoL(Y) was administered randomly in order to eliminate bias. The test-retest reliability of the SS-QoL(Y) was carried out among 68 of the respondents within an interval of 7 days. All respondents were purposively recruited from selected secondary and tertiary health facilities in South-west Nigeria. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics of mean and standard deviation, and inferential statistics of Spearman correlation, Cronbach's alpha, Intra-class Correlation Coefficient (ICC), Independent t-test and One-way ANOVA. Alpha level was set at p < 0.05. The physical health, psychological health, social relationship and environment domains on WHOQoL-BREF with correlation coefficient that ranged from 0.214 to 0.360 showed significant correlation with similar domains on SS-QoL(Y). Dissimilar domains between the two scales had r values from 0.035 to 0.366. Discriminant validity of SS-QoL(Y) showed that items' r value ranged from 0.711 to 0.920 with their hypothesized domains. The scale demonstrated moderate to strong test-retest reliability with Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) for the domains and overall scores (r = 0.47 to 0.81) and moderate to high internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha =0.61 to 0.82) for domains scores. These correlations were also significant for the domains and overall scores (p < 0.05). There were no significant differences across different age groups or gender for the domains or overall scores of SS-QoL(Y). Discriminant and known-group validity, test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the Yoruba version of the Stroke Specific Quality of Life 2.0 are adequate while the convergent and divergent validity are low but acceptable. The SS-QoL(Y) is recommended for assessing health-related quality of life among Yoruba stroke survivors.

Earthquake triggering in southeast Africa following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neves, Miguel; Custódio, Susana; Peng, Zhigang; Ayorinde, Adebayo

2018-02-01

In this paper we present evidence of earthquake dynamic triggering in southeast Africa. We analysed seismic waveforms recorded at 53 broad-band and short-period stations in order to identify possible increases in the rate of microearthquakes and tremor due to the passage of teleseismic waves generated by the Mw8.6 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake. We found evidence of triggered local earthquakes and no evidence of triggered tremor in the region. We assessed the statistical significance of the increase in the number of local earthquakes using β-statistics. Statistically significant dynamic triggering of local earthquakes was observed at 7 out of the 53 analysed stations. Two of these stations are located in the northeast coast of Madagascar and the other five stations are located in the Kaapvaal Craton, southern Africa. We found no evidence of dynamically triggered seismic activity in stations located near the structures of the East African Rift System. Hydrothermal activity exists close to the stations that recorded dynamic triggering, however, it also exists near the East African Rift System structures where no triggering was observed. Our results suggest that factors other than solely tectonic regime and geothermalism are needed to explain the mechanisms that underlie earthquake triggering.

Triangulating Evidence to Investigate the Validity of Measures: Evidence from Discussion during Instruction, Cognitive Interviews, and Written Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burmester, Kristen O'Rourke

2011-01-01

Classrooms are a primary site of evidence about learning. Yet classroom proceedings often occur behind closed doors and hence evidence of student learning is observable only to the classroom teacher. The informal and undocumented nature of this information means that it is rarely included in statistical models or quantifiable analyses. This…

Artificial Intelligence Approach to Support Statistical Quality Control Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reis, Marcelo Menezes; Paladini, Edson Pacheco; Khator, Suresh; Sommer, Willy Arno

2006-01-01

Statistical quality control--SQC (consisting of Statistical Process Control, Process Capability Studies, Acceptance Sampling and Design of Experiments) is a very important tool to obtain, maintain and improve the Quality level of goods and services produced by an organization. Despite its importance, and the fact that it is taught in technical and…