A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

2018-04-01

In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

A Study on Predictive Analytics Application to Ship Machinery Maintenance

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

Looking at the nature of the time series forecasting method , it would be better applied to offline analysis . The application for real- time online...other system attributes in future. Two techniques of statistical analysis , mainly time series models and cumulative sum control charts, are discussed in...statistical tool employed for the two techniques of statistical analysis . Both time series forecasting as well as CUSUM control charts are shown to be

Techniques in teaching statistics : linking research production and research use.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martinez-Moyano, I .; Smith, A.; Univ. of Massachusetts at Boston)

In the spirit of closing the 'research-practice gap,' the authors extend evidence-based principles to statistics instruction in social science graduate education. The authors employ a Delphi method to survey experienced statistics instructors to identify teaching techniques to overcome the challenges inherent in teaching statistics to students enrolled in practitioner-oriented master's degree programs. Among the teaching techniques identi?ed as essential are using real-life examples, requiring data collection exercises, and emphasizing interpretation rather than results. Building on existing research, preliminary interviews, and the ?ndings from the study, the authors develop a model describing antecedents to the strength of the link between researchmore » and practice.« less

Data mining and statistical inference in selective laser melting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kamath, Chandrika

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing process that builds a complex three-dimensional part, layer-by-layer, using a laser beam to fuse fine metal powder together. The design freedom afforded by SLM comes associated with complexity. As the physical phenomena occur over a broad range of length and time scales, the computational cost of modeling the process is high. At the same time, the large number of parameters that control the quality of a part make experiments expensive. In this paper, we describe ways in which we can use data mining and statistical inference techniques to intelligently combine simulations andmore » experiments to build parts with desired properties. We start with a brief summary of prior work in finding process parameters for high-density parts. We then expand on this work to show how we can improve the approach by using feature selection techniques to identify important variables, data-driven surrogate models to reduce computational costs, improved sampling techniques to cover the design space adequately, and uncertainty analysis for statistical inference. Here, our results indicate that techniques from data mining and statistics can complement those from physical modeling to provide greater insight into complex processes such as selective laser melting.« less

Data mining and statistical inference in selective laser melting

DOE PAGES

Kamath, Chandrika

2016-01-11

Selective laser melting (SLM) is an additive manufacturing process that builds a complex three-dimensional part, layer-by-layer, using a laser beam to fuse fine metal powder together. The design freedom afforded by SLM comes associated with complexity. As the physical phenomena occur over a broad range of length and time scales, the computational cost of modeling the process is high. At the same time, the large number of parameters that control the quality of a part make experiments expensive. In this paper, we describe ways in which we can use data mining and statistical inference techniques to intelligently combine simulations andmore » experiments to build parts with desired properties. We start with a brief summary of prior work in finding process parameters for high-density parts. We then expand on this work to show how we can improve the approach by using feature selection techniques to identify important variables, data-driven surrogate models to reduce computational costs, improved sampling techniques to cover the design space adequately, and uncertainty analysis for statistical inference. Here, our results indicate that techniques from data mining and statistics can complement those from physical modeling to provide greater insight into complex processes such as selective laser melting.« less

Effects of preprocessing Landsat MSS data on derived features

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parris, T. M.; Cicone, R. C.

1983-01-01

Important to the use of multitemporal Landsat MSS data for earth resources monitoring, such as agricultural inventories, is the ability to minimize the effects of varying atmospheric and satellite viewing conditions, while extracting physically meaningful features from the data. In general, the approaches to the preprocessing problem have been derived from either physical or statistical models. This paper compares three proposed algorithms; XSTAR haze correction, Color Normalization, and Multiple Acquisition Mean Level Adjustment. These techniques represent physical, statistical, and hybrid physical-statistical models, respectively. The comparisons are made in the context of three feature extraction techniques; the Tasseled Cap, the Cate Color Cube. and Normalized Difference.

Molecular Modeling in Drug Design for the Development of Organophosphorus Antidotes/Prophylactics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-06-01

multidimensional statistical QSAR analysis techniques to suggest new structures for synthesis and evaluation. C. Application of quantum chemical techniques to...compounds for synthesis and testing for antidotal potency. E. Use of computer-assisted methods to determine the steric constraints at the active site...modeling techniques to model the enzyme acetylcholinester-se. H. Suggestion of some novel compounds for synthesis and testing for reactivating

Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems.

PubMed

Williams, Richard A; Timmis, Jon; Qwarnstrom, Eva E

2016-01-01

Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model.

Statistical Techniques Complement UML When Developing Domain Models of Complex Dynamical Biosystems

PubMed Central

Timmis, Jon; Qwarnstrom, Eva E.

2016-01-01

Computational modelling and simulation is increasingly being used to complement traditional wet-lab techniques when investigating the mechanistic behaviours of complex biological systems. In order to ensure computational models are fit for purpose, it is essential that the abstracted view of biology captured in the computational model, is clearly and unambiguously defined within a conceptual model of the biological domain (a domain model), that acts to accurately represent the biological system and to document the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. We present a domain model of the IL-1 stimulated NF-κB signalling pathway, which unambiguously defines the spatial, temporal and stochastic requirements for our future computational model. Through the development of this model, we observe that, in isolation, UML is not sufficient for the purpose of creating a domain model, and that a number of descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques provide complementary perspectives, in particular when modelling the heterogeneity of dynamics at the single-cell level. We believe this approach of using UML to define the structure and interactions within a complex system, along with statistics to define the stochastic and dynamic nature of complex systems, is crucial for ensuring that conceptual models of complex dynamical biosystems, which are developed using UML, are fit for purpose, and unambiguously define the functional requirements for the resultant computational model. PMID:27571414

How Does One Assess the Accuracy of Academic Success Predictors? ROC Analysis Applied to University Entrance Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vivo, Juana-Maria; Franco, Manuel

2008-01-01

This article attempts to present a novel application of a method of measuring accuracy for academic success predictors that could be used as a standard. This procedure is known as the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which comes from statistical decision techniques. The statistical prediction techniques provide predictor models and…

Prediction of In Vivo Knee Joint Kinematics Using a Combined Dual Fluoroscopy Imaging and Statistical Shape Modeling Technique

PubMed Central

Li, Jing-Sheng; Tsai, Tsung-Yuan; Wang, Shaobai; Li, Pingyue; Kwon, Young-Min; Freiberg, Andrew; Rubash, Harry E.; Li, Guoan

2014-01-01

Using computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance (MR) images to construct 3D knee models has been widely used in biomedical engineering research. Statistical shape modeling (SSM) method is an alternative way to provide a fast, cost-efficient, and subject-specific knee modeling technique. This study was aimed to evaluate the feasibility of using a combined dual-fluoroscopic imaging system (DFIS) and SSM method to investigate in vivo knee kinematics. Three subjects were studied during a treadmill walking. The data were compared with the kinematics obtained using a CT-based modeling technique. Geometric root-mean-square (RMS) errors between the knee models constructed using the SSM and CT-based modeling techniques were 1.16 mm and 1.40 mm for the femur and tibia, respectively. For the kinematics of the knee during the treadmill gait, the SSM model can predict the knee kinematics with RMS errors within 3.3 deg for rotation and within 2.4 mm for translation throughout the stance phase of the gait cycle compared with those obtained using the CT-based knee models. The data indicated that the combined DFIS and SSM technique could be used for quick evaluation of knee joint kinematics. PMID:25320846

On prognostic models, artificial intelligence and censored observations.

PubMed

Anand, S S; Hamilton, P W; Hughes, J G; Bell, D A

2001-03-01

The development of prognostic models for assisting medical practitioners with decision making is not a trivial task. Models need to possess a number of desirable characteristics and few, if any, current modelling approaches based on statistical or artificial intelligence can produce models that display all these characteristics. The inability of modelling techniques to provide truly useful models has led to interest in these models being purely academic in nature. This in turn has resulted in only a very small percentage of models that have been developed being deployed in practice. On the other hand, new modelling paradigms are being proposed continuously within the machine learning and statistical community and claims, often based on inadequate evaluation, being made on their superiority over traditional modelling methods. We believe that for new modelling approaches to deliver true net benefits over traditional techniques, an evaluation centric approach to their development is essential. In this paper we present such an evaluation centric approach to developing extensions to the basic k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) paradigm. We use standard statistical techniques to enhance the distance metric used and a framework based on evidence theory to obtain a prediction for the target example from the outcome of the retrieved exemplars. We refer to this new k-NN algorithm as Censored k-NN (Ck-NN). This reflects the enhancements made to k-NN that are aimed at providing a means for handling censored observations within k-NN.

Statistical model to perform error analysis of curve fits of wind tunnel test data using the techniques of analysis of variance and regression analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alston, D. W.

1981-01-01

The considered research had the objective to design a statistical model that could perform an error analysis of curve fits of wind tunnel test data using analysis of variance and regression analysis techniques. Four related subproblems were defined, and by solving each of these a solution to the general research problem was obtained. The capabilities of the evolved true statistical model are considered. The least squares fit is used to determine the nature of the force, moment, and pressure data. The order of the curve fit is increased in order to delete the quadratic effect in the residuals. The analysis of variance is used to determine the magnitude and effect of the error factor associated with the experimental data.

Groundwater-level prediction using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques: a comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahoo, Sasmita; Jha, Madan K.

2013-12-01

The potential of multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques in predicting transient water levels over a groundwater basin were compared. MLR and ANN modeling was carried out at 17 sites in Japan, considering all significant inputs: rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage, 11 seasonal dummy variables, and influential lags of rainfall, ambient temperature, river stage and groundwater level. Seventeen site-specific ANN models were developed, using multi-layer feed-forward neural networks trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithms. The performance of the models was evaluated using statistical and graphical indicators. Comparison of the goodness-of-fit statistics of the MLR models with those of the ANN models indicated that there is better agreement between the ANN-predicted groundwater levels and the observed groundwater levels at all the sites, compared to the MLR. This finding was supported by the graphical indicators and the residual analysis. Thus, it is concluded that the ANN technique is superior to the MLR technique in predicting spatio-temporal distribution of groundwater levels in a basin. However, considering the practical advantages of the MLR technique, it is recommended as an alternative and cost-effective groundwater modeling tool.

Progress of statistical analysis in biomedical research through the historical review of the development of the Framingham score.

PubMed

Ignjatović, Aleksandra; Stojanović, Miodrag; Milošević, Zoran; Anđelković Apostolović, Marija

2017-12-02

The interest in developing risk models in medicine not only is appealing, but also associated with many obstacles in different aspects of predictive model development. Initially, the association of biomarkers or the association of more markers with the specific outcome was proven by statistical significance, but novel and demanding questions required the development of new and more complex statistical techniques. Progress of statistical analysis in biomedical research can be observed the best through the history of the Framingham study and development of the Framingham score. Evaluation of predictive models comes from a combination of the facts which are results of several metrics. Using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression analysis, the calibration test, and the ROC curve analysis should be mandatory and eliminatory, and the central place should be taken by some new statistical techniques. In order to obtain complete information related to the new marker in the model, recently, there is a recommendation to use the reclassification tables by calculating the net reclassification index and the integrated discrimination improvement. Decision curve analysis is a novel method for evaluating the clinical usefulness of a predictive model. It may be noted that customizing and fine-tuning of the Framingham risk score initiated the development of statistical analysis. Clinically applicable predictive model should be a trade-off between all abovementioned statistical metrics, a trade-off between calibration and discrimination, accuracy and decision-making, costs and benefits, and quality and quantity of patient's life.

Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

PubMed

Carvajal, Thaddeus M; Viacrusis, Katherine M; Hernandez, Lara Fides T; Ho, Howell T; Amalin, Divina M; Watanabe, Kozo

2018-04-17

Several studies have applied ecological factors such as meteorological variables to develop models and accurately predict the temporal pattern of dengue incidence or occurrence. With the vast amount of studies that investigated this premise, the modeling approaches differ from each study and only use a single statistical technique. It raises the question of whether which technique would be robust and reliable. Hence, our study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila as influenced by meteorological factors from four modeling techniques, (a) General Additive Modeling, (b) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (c) Random Forest and (d) Gradient Boosting. Dengue incidence and meteorological data (flood, precipitation, temperature, southern oscillation index, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) of Metropolitan Manila from January 1, 2009 - December 31, 2013 were obtained from respective government agencies. Two types of datasets were used in the analysis; observed meteorological factors (MF) and its corresponding delayed or lagged effect (LG). After which, these datasets were subjected to the four modeling techniques. The predictive accuracy and variable importance of each modeling technique were calculated and evaluated. Among the statistical modeling techniques, Random Forest showed the best predictive accuracy. Moreover, the delayed or lag effects of the meteorological variables was shown to be the best dataset to use for such purpose. Thus, the model of Random Forest with delayed meteorological effects (RF-LG) was deemed the best among all assessed models. Relative humidity was shown to be the top-most important meteorological factor in the best model. The study exhibited that there are indeed different predictive outcomes generated from each statistical modeling technique and it further revealed that the Random forest model with delayed meteorological effects to be the best in predicting the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila. It is also noteworthy that the study also identified relative humidity as an important meteorological factor along with rainfall and temperature that can influence this temporal pattern.

Post-Modeling Histogram Matching of Maps Produced Using Regression Trees

Treesearch

Andrew J. Lister; Tonya W. Lister

2006-01-01

Spatial predictive models often use statistical techniques that in some way rely on averaging of values. Estimates from linear modeling are known to be susceptible to truncation of variance when the independent (predictor) variables are measured with error. A straightforward post-processing technique (histogram matching) for attempting to mitigate this effect is...

Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, P. L.

1982-01-01

The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

A BAYESIAN STATISTICAL APPROACHES FOR THE EVALUATION OF CMAQ

EPA Science Inventory

This research focuses on the application of spatial statistical techniques for the evaluation of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The upcoming release version of the CMAQ model was run for the calendar year 2001 and is in the process of being evaluated by EPA an...

A Statistical Decision Model for Periodical Selection for a Specialized Information Center

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dym, Eleanor D.; Shirey, Donald L.

1973-01-01

An experiment is described which attempts to define a quantitative methodology for the identification and evaluation of all possibly relevant periodical titles containing toxicological-biological information. A statistical decision model was designed and employed, along with yes/no criteria questions, a training technique and a quality control…

Electrospining of polyaniline/poly(lactic acid) ultrathin fibers: process and statistical modeling using a non-gaussian approach

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cover: The electrospinning technique was employed to obtain conducting nanofibers based on polyaniline and poly(lactic acid). A statistical model was employed to describe how the process factors (solution concentration, applied voltage, and flow rate) govern the fiber dimensions. Nanofibers down to ...

Assessing statistical differences between parameters estimates in Partial Least Squares path modeling.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Entrena, Macario; Schuberth, Florian; Gelhard, Carsten

2018-01-01

Structural equation modeling using partial least squares (PLS-SEM) has become a main-stream modeling approach in various disciplines. Nevertheless, prior literature still lacks a practical guidance on how to properly test for differences between parameter estimates. Whereas existing techniques such as parametric and non-parametric approaches in PLS multi-group analysis solely allow to assess differences between parameters that are estimated for different subpopulations, the study at hand introduces a technique that allows to also assess whether two parameter estimates that are derived from the same sample are statistically different. To illustrate this advancement to PLS-SEM, we particularly refer to a reduced version of the well-established technology acceptance model.

Probabilistic/Fracture-Mechanics Model For Service Life

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watkins, T., Jr.; Annis, C. G., Jr.

1991-01-01

Computer program makes probabilistic estimates of lifetime of engine and components thereof. Developed to fill need for more accurate life-assessment technique that avoids errors in estimated lives and provides for statistical assessment of levels of risk created by engineering decisions in designing system. Implements mathematical model combining techniques of statistics, fatigue, fracture mechanics, nondestructive analysis, life-cycle cost analysis, and management of engine parts. Used to investigate effects of such engine-component life-controlling parameters as return-to-service intervals, stresses, capabilities for nondestructive evaluation, and qualities of materials.

Acceleration techniques for dependability simulation. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnette, James David

1995-01-01

As computer systems increase in complexity, the need to project system performance from the earliest design and development stages increases. We have to employ simulation for detailed dependability studies of large systems. However, as the complexity of the simulation model increases, the time required to obtain statistically significant results also increases. This paper discusses an approach that is application independent and can be readily applied to any process-based simulation model. Topics include background on classical discrete event simulation and techniques for random variate generation and statistics gathering to support simulation.

[Statistical prediction methods in violence risk assessment and its application].

PubMed

Liu, Yuan-Yuan; Hu, Jun-Mei; Yang, Min; Li, Xiao-Song

2013-06-01

It is an urgent global problem how to improve the violence risk assessment. As a necessary part of risk assessment, statistical methods have remarkable impacts and effects. In this study, the predicted methods in violence risk assessment from the point of statistics are reviewed. The application of Logistic regression as the sample of multivariate statistical model, decision tree model as the sample of data mining technique, and neural networks model as the sample of artificial intelligence technology are all reviewed. This study provides data in order to contribute the further research of violence risk assessment.

Applying Regression Analysis to Problems in Institutional Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bohannon, Tom R.

1988-01-01

Regression analysis is one of the most frequently used statistical techniques in institutional research. Principles of least squares, model building, residual analysis, influence statistics, and multi-collinearity are described and illustrated. (Author/MSE)

Modeling the subfilter scalar variance for large eddy simulation in forced isotropic turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheminet, Adam; Blanquart, Guillaume

2011-11-01

Static and dynamic model for the subfilter scalar variance in homogeneous isotropic turbulence are investigated using direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a lineary forced passive scalar field. First, we introduce a new scalar forcing technique conditioned only on the scalar field which allows the fluctuating scalar field to reach a statistically stationary state. Statistical properties, including 2nd and 3rd statistical moments, spectra, and probability density functions of the scalar field have been analyzed. Using this technique, we performed constant density and variable density DNS of scalar mixing in isotropic turbulence. The results are used in an a-priori study of scalar variance models. Emphasis is placed on further studying the dynamic model introduced by G. Balarac, H. Pitsch and V. Raman [Phys. Fluids 20, (2008)]. Scalar variance models based on Bedford and Yeo's expansion are accurate for small filter width but errors arise in the inertial subrange. Results suggest that a constant coefficient computed from an assumed Kolmogorov spectrum is often sufficient to predict the subfilter scalar variance.

Statistical assessment of the learning curves of health technologies.

PubMed

Ramsay, C R; Grant, A M; Wallace, S A; Garthwaite, P H; Monk, A F; Russell, I T

2001-01-01

(1) To describe systematically studies that directly assessed the learning curve effect of health technologies. (2) Systematically to identify 'novel' statistical techniques applied to learning curve data in other fields, such as psychology and manufacturing. (3) To test these statistical techniques in data sets from studies of varying designs to assess health technologies in which learning curve effects are known to exist. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal analysis of the learning curve of a health technology using a graphical, tabular or statistical technique. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal assessment of a learning curve using a statistical technique that had not been identified in the previous search. METHODS - DATA SOURCES: Six clinical and 16 non-clinical biomedical databases were searched. A limited amount of handsearching and scanning of reference lists was also undertaken. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): A number of study characteristics were abstracted from the papers such as study design, study size, number of operators and the statistical method used. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): The new statistical techniques identified were categorised into four subgroups of increasing complexity: exploratory data analysis; simple series data analysis; complex data structure analysis, generic techniques. METHODS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: Some of the statistical methods identified in the systematic searches for single (simple) operator series data and for multiple (complex) operator series data were illustrated and explored using three data sets. The first was a case series of 190 consecutive laparoscopic fundoplication procedures performed by a single surgeon; the second was a case series of consecutive laparoscopic cholecystectomy procedures performed by ten surgeons; the third was randomised trial data derived from the laparoscopic procedure arm of a multicentre trial of groin hernia repair, supplemented by data from non-randomised operations performed during the trial. RESULTS - HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW: Of 4571 abstracts identified, 272 (6%) were later included in the study after review of the full paper. Some 51% of studies assessed a surgical minimal access technique and 95% were case series. The statistical method used most often (60%) was splitting the data into consecutive parts (such as halves or thirds), with only 14% attempting a more formal statistical analysis. The reporting of the studies was poor, with 31% giving no details of data collection methods. RESULTS - NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH: Of 9431 abstracts assessed, 115 (1%) were deemed appropriate for further investigation and, of these, 18 were included in the study. All of the methods for complex data sets were identified in the non-clinical literature. These were discriminant analysis, two-stage estimation of learning rates, generalised estimating equations, multilevel models, latent curve models, time series models and stochastic parameter models. In addition, eight new shapes of learning curves were identified. RESULTS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: No one particular shape of learning curve performed significantly better than another. The performance of 'operation time' as a proxy for learning differed between the three procedures. Multilevel modelling using the laparoscopic cholecystectomy data demonstrated and measured surgeon-specific and confounding effects. The inclusion of non-randomised cases, despite the possible limitations of the method, enhanced the interpretation of learning effects. CONCLUSIONS - HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW: The statistical methods used for assessing learning effects in health technology assessment have been crude and the reporting of studies poor. CONCLUSIONS - NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH: A number of statistical methods for assessing learning effects were identified that had not hitherto been used in health technology assessment. There was a hierarchy of methods for the identification and measurement of learning, and the more sophisticated methods for both have had little if any use in health technology assessment. This demonstrated the value of considering fields outside clinical research when addressing methodological issues in health technology assessment. CONCLUSIONS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: It has been demonstrated that the portfolio of techniques identified can enhance investigations of learning curve effects. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)

Statistics and Machine Learning based Outlier Detection Techniques for Exoplanets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, Amit; Montgomery, Michele

2015-08-01

Architectures of planetary systems are observable snapshots in time that can indicate formation and dynamic evolution of planets. The observable key parameters that we consider are planetary mass and orbital period. If planet masses are significantly less than their host star masses, then Keplerian Motion is defined as P^2 = a^3 where P is the orbital period in units of years and a is the orbital period in units of Astronomical Units (AU). Keplerian motion works on small scales such as the size of the Solar System but not on large scales such as the size of the Milky Way Galaxy. In this work, for confirmed exoplanets of known stellar mass, planetary mass, orbital period, and stellar age, we analyze Keplerian motion of systems based on stellar age to seek if Keplerian motion has an age dependency and to identify outliers. For detecting outliers, we apply several techniques based on statistical and machine learning methods such as probabilistic, linear, and proximity based models. In probabilistic and statistical models of outliers, the parameters of a closed form probability distributions are learned in order to detect the outliers. Linear models use regression analysis based techniques for detecting outliers. Proximity based models use distance based algorithms such as k-nearest neighbour, clustering algorithms such as k-means, or density based algorithms such as kernel density estimation. In this work, we will use unsupervised learning algorithms with only the proximity based models. In addition, we explore the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various techniques by validating the outliers. The validation criteria for the outliers is if the ratio of planetary mass to stellar mass is less than 0.001. In this work, we present our statistical analysis of the outliers thus detected.

Statistical Mechanics of Coherent Ising Machine — The Case of Ferromagnetic and Finite-Loading Hopfield Models —

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aonishi, Toru; Mimura, Kazushi; Utsunomiya, Shoko; Okada, Masato; Yamamoto, Yoshihisa

2017-10-01

The coherent Ising machine (CIM) has attracted attention as one of the most effective Ising computing architectures for solving large scale optimization problems because of its scalability and high-speed computational ability. However, it is difficult to implement the Ising computation in the CIM because the theories and techniques of classical thermodynamic equilibrium Ising spin systems cannot be directly applied to the CIM. This means we have to adapt these theories and techniques to the CIM. Here we focus on a ferromagnetic model and a finite loading Hopfield model, which are canonical models sharing a common mathematical structure with almost all other Ising models. We derive macroscopic equations to capture nonequilibrium phase transitions in these models. The statistical mechanical methods developed here constitute a basis for constructing evaluation methods for other Ising computation models.

Discrimination of dynamical system models for biological and chemical processes.

PubMed

Lorenz, Sönke; Diederichs, Elmar; Telgmann, Regina; Schütte, Christof

2007-06-01

In technical chemistry, systems biology and biotechnology, the construction of predictive models has become an essential step in process design and product optimization. Accurate modelling of the reactions requires detailed knowledge about the processes involved. However, when concerned with the development of new products and production techniques for example, this knowledge often is not available due to the lack of experimental data. Thus, when one has to work with a selection of proposed models, the main tasks of early development is to discriminate these models. In this article, a new statistical approach to model discrimination is described that ranks models wrt. the probability with which they reproduce the given data. The article introduces the new approach, discusses its statistical background, presents numerical techniques for its implementation and illustrates the application to examples from biokinetics.

Improving the Document Development Process: Integrating Relational Data and Statistical Process Control.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, John

1994-01-01

Presents an approach to document numbering, document titling, and process measurement which, when used with fundamental techniques of statistical process control, reveals meaningful process-element variation as well as nominal productivity models. (SR)

Variational stereo imaging of oceanic waves with statistical constraints.

PubMed

Gallego, Guillermo; Yezzi, Anthony; Fedele, Francesco; Benetazzo, Alvise

2013-11-01

An image processing observational technique for the stereoscopic reconstruction of the waveform of oceanic sea states is developed. The technique incorporates the enforcement of any given statistical wave law modeling the quasi-Gaussianity of oceanic waves observed in nature. The problem is posed in a variational optimization framework, where the desired waveform is obtained as the minimizer of a cost functional that combines image observations, smoothness priors and a weak statistical constraint. The minimizer is obtained by combining gradient descent and multigrid methods on the necessary optimality equations of the cost functional. Robust photometric error criteria and a spatial intensity compensation model are also developed to improve the performance of the presented image matching strategy. The weak statistical constraint is thoroughly evaluated in combination with other elements presented to reconstruct and enforce constraints on experimental stereo data, demonstrating the improvement in the estimation of the observed ocean surface.

The potential of statistical shape modelling for geometric morphometric analysis of human teeth in archaeological research

PubMed Central

Fernee, Christianne; Browne, Martin; Zakrzewski, Sonia

2017-01-01

This paper introduces statistical shape modelling (SSM) for use in osteoarchaeology research. SSM is a full field, multi-material analytical technique, and is presented as a supplementary geometric morphometric (GM) tool. Lower mandibular canines from two archaeological populations and one modern population were sampled, digitised using micro-CT, aligned, registered to a baseline and statistically modelled using principal component analysis (PCA). Sample material properties were incorporated as a binary enamel/dentin parameter. Results were assessed qualitatively and quantitatively using anatomical landmarks. Finally, the technique’s application was demonstrated for inter-sample comparison through analysis of the principal component (PC) weights. It was found that SSM could provide high detail qualitative and quantitative insight with respect to archaeological inter- and intra-sample variability. This technique has value for archaeological, biomechanical and forensic applications including identification, finite element analysis (FEA) and reconstruction from partial datasets. PMID:29216199

An Application of Structural Equation Modeling for Developing Good Teaching Characteristics Ontology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phiakoksong, Somjin; Niwattanakul, Suphakit; Angskun, Thara

2013-01-01

Ontology is a knowledge representation technique which aims to make knowledge explicit by defining the core concepts and their relationships. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is a statistical technique which aims to explore the core factors from empirical data and estimates the relationship between these factors. This article presents an…

Comparison of repair techniques in small and medium-sized rotator cuff tears in cadaveric sheep shoulders.

PubMed

Onay, Ulaş; Akpınar, Sercan; Akgün, Rahmi Can; Balçık, Cenk; Tuncay, Ismail Cengiz

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to compare new knotless single-row and double-row suture anchor techniques with traditional transosseous suture techniques for different sized rotator cuff tears in an animal model. The study included 56 cadaveric sheep shoulders. Supraspinatus cuff tears of 1 cm repaired with new knotless single-row suture anchor technique and supraspinatus and infraspinatus rotator cuff tears of 3 cm repaired with double-row suture anchor technique were compared to traditional transosseous suture techniques and control groups. The repaired tendons were loaded with 5 mm/min static velocity with 2.5 kgN load cell in Instron 8874 machine until the repair failure. The 1 cm transosseous group was statistically superior to 1 cm control group (p=0.021, p<0.05) and the 3 cm SpeedBridge group was statistically superior to the 1 cm SpeedFix group (p=0.012, p<0.05). The differences between the other groups were not statistically significant. No significant difference was found between the new knotless suture anchor techniques and traditional transosseous suture techniques.

Fragment size distribution statistics in dynamic fragmentation of laser shock-loaded tin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Weihua; Xin, Jianting; Zhao, Yongqiang; Chu, Genbai; Xi, Tao; Shui, Min; Lu, Feng; Gu, Yuqiu

2017-06-01

This work investigates the geometric statistics method to characterize the size distribution of tin fragments produced in the laser shock-loaded dynamic fragmentation process. In the shock experiments, the ejection of the tin sample with etched V-shape groove in the free surface are collected by the soft recovery technique. Subsequently, the produced fragments are automatically detected with the fine post-shot analysis techniques including the X-ray micro-tomography and the improved watershed method. To characterize the size distributions of the fragments, a theoretical random geometric statistics model based on Poisson mixtures is derived for dynamic heterogeneous fragmentation problem, which reveals linear combinational exponential distribution. The experimental data related to fragment size distributions of the laser shock-loaded tin sample are examined with the proposed theoretical model, and its fitting performance is compared with that of other state-of-the-art fragment size distribution models. The comparison results prove that our proposed model can provide far more reasonable fitting result for the laser shock-loaded tin.

Application of statistical downscaling technique for the production of wine grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaitán Fernández, E.; García Moreno, R.; Pino Otín, M. R.; Ribalaygua Batalla, J.

2012-04-01

Climate and soil are two of the most important limiting factors for agricultural production. Nowadays climate change has been documented in many geographical locations affecting different cropping systems. The General Circulation Models (GCM) has become important tools to simulate the more relevant aspects of the climate expected for the XXI century in the frame of climatic change. These models are able to reproduce the general features of the atmospheric dynamic but their low resolution (about 200 Km) avoids a proper simulation of lower scale meteorological effects. Downscaling techniques allow overcoming this problem by adapting the model outcomes to local scale. In this context, FIC (Fundación para la Investigación del Clima) has developed a statistical downscaling technique based on a two step analogue methods. This methodology has been broadly tested on national and international environments leading to excellent results on future climate models. In a collaboration project, this statistical downscaling technique was applied to predict future scenarios for the grape growing systems in Spain. The application of such model is very important to predict expected climate for the different growing crops, mainly for grape, where the success of different varieties are highly related to climate and soil. The model allowed the implementation of agricultural conservation practices in the crop production, detecting highly sensible areas to negative impacts produced by any modification of climate in the different regions, mainly those protected with protected designation of origin, and the definition of new production areas with optimal edaphoclimatic conditions for the different varieties.

Evaluation of the ecological relevance of mysid toxicity tests using population modeling techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kuhn-Hines, A.; Munns, W.R. Jr.; Lussier, S.

1995-12-31

A number of acute and chronic bioassay statistics are used to evaluate the toxicity and risks of chemical stressors to the mysid shrimp, Mysidopsis bahia. These include LC{sub 50}S from acute tests, NOECs from 7-day and life-cycle tests, and the US EPA Water Quality Criteria Criterion Continuous Concentrations (CCC). Because these statistics are generated from endpoints which focus upon the responses of individual organisms, their relationships to significant effects at higher levels of ecological organization are unknown. This study was conducted to evaluate the quantitative relationships between toxicity test statistics and a concentration-based statistic derived from exposure-response models describing populationmore » growth rate ({lambda}) to stressor concentration. This statistic, C{sup {sm_bullet}} (concentration where {lambda} = I, zero population growth) describes the concentration above which mysid populations are projected to decline in abundance as determined using population modeling techniques. An analysis of M. bahia responses to 9 metals and 9 organic contaminants indicated the NOEC from life-cycle tests to be the best predictor of C{sup {sm_bullet}}, although the acute LC{sub 50} predicted population-level response surprisingly well. These analyses provide useful information regarding uncertainties of extrapolation among test statistics in assessments of ecological risk.« less

A study of two statistical methods as applied to shuttle solid rocket booster expenditures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perlmutter, M.; Huang, Y.; Graves, M.

1974-01-01

The state probability technique and the Monte Carlo technique are applied to finding shuttle solid rocket booster expenditure statistics. For a given attrition rate per launch, the probable number of boosters needed for a given mission of 440 launches is calculated. Several cases are considered, including the elimination of the booster after a maximum of 20 consecutive launches. Also considered is the case where the booster is composed of replaceable components with independent attrition rates. A simple cost analysis is carried out to indicate the number of boosters to build initially, depending on booster costs. Two statistical methods were applied in the analysis: (1) state probability method which consists of defining an appropriate state space for the outcome of the random trials, and (2) model simulation method or the Monte Carlo technique. It was found that the model simulation method was easier to formulate while the state probability method required less computing time and was more accurate.

Statistical summaries of fatigue data for design purposes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wirsching, P. H.

1983-01-01

Two methods are discussed for constructing a design curve on the safe side of fatigue data. Both the tolerance interval and equivalent prediction interval (EPI) concepts provide such a curve while accounting for both the distribution of the estimators in small samples and the data scatter. The EPI is also useful as a mechanism for providing necessary statistics on S-N data for a full reliability analysis which includes uncertainty in all fatigue design factors. Examples of statistical analyses of the general strain life relationship are presented. The tolerance limit and EPI techniques for defining a design curve are demonstrated. Examples usng WASPALOY B and RQC-100 data demonstrate that a reliability model could be constructed by considering the fatigue strength and fatigue ductility coefficients as two independent random variables. A technique given for establishing the fatigue strength for high cycle lives relies on an extrapolation technique and also accounts for "runners." A reliability model or design value can be specified.

Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

2014-12-01

Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities: Frequency variability in the Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

1992-11-01

Two techniques have been developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters. These techniques overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant "blue shift" of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on "global" internal wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12° of the equator.

Validating an Air Traffic Management Concept of Operation Using Statistical Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Yuning; Davies, Misty Dawn

2013-01-01

Validating a concept of operation for a complex, safety-critical system (like the National Airspace System) is challenging because of the high dimensionality of the controllable parameters and the infinite number of states of the system. In this paper, we use statistical modeling techniques to explore the behavior of a conflict detection and resolution algorithm designed for the terminal airspace. These techniques predict the robustness of the system simulation to both nominal and off-nominal behaviors within the overall airspace. They also can be used to evaluate the output of the simulation against recorded airspace data. Additionally, the techniques carry with them a mathematical value of the worth of each prediction-a statistical uncertainty for any robustness estimate. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is the process of quantitative characterization and ultimately a reduction of uncertainties in complex systems. UQ is important for understanding the influence of uncertainties on the behavior of a system and therefore is valuable for design, analysis, and verification and validation. In this paper, we apply advanced statistical modeling methodologies and techniques on an advanced air traffic management system, namely the Terminal Tactical Separation Assured Flight Environment (T-TSAFE). We show initial results for a parameter analysis and safety boundary (envelope) detection in the high-dimensional parameter space. For our boundary analysis, we developed a new sequential approach based upon the design of computer experiments, allowing us to incorporate knowledge from domain experts into our modeling and to determine the most likely boundary shapes and its parameters. We carried out the analysis on system parameters and describe an initial approach that will allow us to include time-series inputs, such as the radar track data, into the analysis

Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

PubMed

Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

2014-03-01

Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

A Comparison Study of Rule Space Method and Neural Network Model for Classifying Individuals and an Application.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayashi, Atsuhiro

Both the Rule Space Method (RSM) and the Neural Network Model (NNM) are techniques of statistical pattern recognition and classification approaches developed for applications from different fields. RSM was developed in the domain of educational statistics. It started from the use of an incidence matrix Q that characterizes the underlying cognitive…

Fitting and Modeling in the ASC Data Analysis Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doe, S.; Siemiginowska, A.; Joye, W.; McDowell, J.

As part of the AXAF Science Center (ASC) Data Analysis Environment, we will provide to the astronomical community a Fitting Application. We present a design of the application in this paper. Our design goal is to give the user the flexibility to use a variety of optimization techniques (Levenberg-Marquardt, maximum entropy, Monte Carlo, Powell, downhill simplex, CERN-Minuit, and simulated annealing) and fit statistics (chi (2) , Cash, variance, and maximum likelihood); our modular design allows the user easily to add their own optimization techniques and/or fit statistics. We also present a comparison of the optimization techniques to be provided by the Application. The high spatial and spectral resolutions that will be obtained with AXAF instruments require a sophisticated data modeling capability. We will provide not only a suite of astronomical spatial and spectral source models, but also the capability of combining these models into source models of up to four data dimensions (i.e., into source functions f(E,x,y,t)). We will also provide tools to create instrument response models appropriate for each observation.

Vibration Transmission through Rolling Element Bearings in Geared Rotor Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-11-01

147 4.8 Concluding Remarks ........................................................... 153 V STATISTICAL ENERGY ANALYSIS ............................................ 155...and dynamic finite element techniques are used to develop the discrete vibration models while statistical energy analysis method is used for the broad...bearing system studies, geared rotor system studies, and statistical energy analysis . Each chapter is self sufficient since it is written in a

A new model for simulating 3-d crystal growth and its application to the study of antifreeze proteins.

PubMed

Wathen, Brent; Kuiper, Michael; Walker, Virginia; Jia, Zongchao

2003-01-22

A novel computational technique for modeling crystal formation has been developed that combines three-dimensional (3-D) molecular representation and detailed energetics calculations of molecular mechanics techniques with the less-sophisticated probabilistic approach used by statistical techniques to study systems containing millions of molecules undergoing billions of interactions. Because our model incorporates both the structure of and the interaction energies between participating molecules, it enables the 3-D shape and surface properties of these molecules to directly affect crystal formation. This increase in model complexity has been achieved while simultaneously increasing the number of molecules in simulations by several orders of magnitude over previous statistical models. We have applied this technique to study the inhibitory effects of antifreeze proteins (AFPs) on ice-crystal formation. Modeling involving both fish and insect AFPs has produced results consistent with experimental observations, including the replication of ice-etching patterns, ice-growth inhibition, and specific AFP-induced ice morphologies. Our work suggests that the degree of AFP activity results more from AFP ice-binding orientation than from AFP ice-binding strength. This technique could readily be adapted to study other crystal and crystal inhibitor systems, or to study other noncrystal systems that exhibit regularity in the structuring of their component molecules, such as those associated with the new nanotechnologies.

Asteroid shape and spin statistics from convex models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torppa, J.; Hentunen, V.-P.; Pääkkönen, P.; Kehusmaa, P.; Muinonen, K.

2008-11-01

We introduce techniques for characterizing convex shape models of asteroids with a small number of parameters, and apply these techniques to a set of 87 models from convex inversion. We present three different approaches for determining the overall dimensions of an asteroid. With the first technique, we measured the dimensions of the shapes in the direction of the rotation axis and in the equatorial plane and with the two other techniques, we derived the best-fit ellipsoid. We also computed the inertia matrix of the model shape to test how well it represents the target asteroid, i.e., to find indications of possible non-convex features or albedo variegation, which the convex shape model cannot reproduce. We used shape models for 87 asteroids to perform statistical analyses and to study dependencies between shape and rotation period, size, and taxonomic type. We detected correlations, but more data are required, especially on small and large objects, as well as slow and fast rotators, to reach a more thorough understanding about the dependencies. Results show, e.g., that convex models of asteroids are not that far from ellipsoids in root-mean-square sense, even though clearly irregular features are present. We also present new spin and shape solutions for Asteroids (31) Euphrosyne, (54) Alexandra, (79) Eurynome, (93) Minerva, (130) Elektra, (376) Geometria, (471) Papagena, and (776) Berbericia. We used a so-called semi-statistical approach to obtain a set of possible spin state solutions. The number of solutions depends on the abundancy of the data, which for Eurynome, Elektra, and Geometria was extensive enough for determining an unambiguous spin and shape solution. Data of Euphrosyne, on the other hand, provided a wide distribution of possible spin solutions, whereas the rest of the targets have two or three possible solutions.

Fourier Descriptor Analysis and Unification of Voice Range Profile Contours: Method and Applications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pabon, Peter; Ternstrom, Sten; Lamarche, Anick

2011-01-01

Purpose: To describe a method for unified description, statistical modeling, and comparison of voice range profile (VRP) contours, even from diverse sources. Method: A morphologic modeling technique, which is based on Fourier descriptors (FDs), is applied to the VRP contour. The technique, which essentially involves resampling of the curve of the…

Evaluating model accuracy for model-based reasoning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Steve; Roden, Joseph

1992-01-01

Described here is an approach to automatically assessing the accuracy of various components of a model. In this approach, actual data from the operation of a target system is used to drive statistical measures to evaluate the prediction accuracy of various portions of the model. We describe how these statistical measures of model accuracy can be used in model-based reasoning for monitoring and design. We then describe the application of these techniques to the monitoring and design of the water recovery system of the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) of Space Station Freedom.

Data Flow Analysis and Visualization for Spatiotemporal Statistical Data without Trajectory Information.

PubMed

Kim, Seokyeon; Jeong, Seongmin; Woo, Insoo; Jang, Yun; Maciejewski, Ross; Ebert, David S

2018-03-01

Geographic visualization research has focused on a variety of techniques to represent and explore spatiotemporal data. The goal of those techniques is to enable users to explore events and interactions over space and time in order to facilitate the discovery of patterns, anomalies and relationships within the data. However, it is difficult to extract and visualize data flow patterns over time for non-directional statistical data without trajectory information. In this work, we develop a novel flow analysis technique to extract, represent, and analyze flow maps of non-directional spatiotemporal data unaccompanied by trajectory information. We estimate a continuous distribution of these events over space and time, and extract flow fields for spatial and temporal changes utilizing a gravity model. Then, we visualize the spatiotemporal patterns in the data by employing flow visualization techniques. The user is presented with temporal trends of geo-referenced discrete events on a map. As such, overall spatiotemporal data flow patterns help users analyze geo-referenced temporal events, such as disease outbreaks, crime patterns, etc. To validate our model, we discard the trajectory information in an origin-destination dataset and apply our technique to the data and compare the derived trajectories and the original. Finally, we present spatiotemporal trend analysis for statistical datasets including twitter data, maritime search and rescue events, and syndromic surveillance.

Security of statistical data bases: invasion of privacy through attribute correlational modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palley, M.A.

This study develops, defines, and applies a statistical technique for the compromise of confidential information in a statistical data base. Attribute Correlational Modeling (ACM) recognizes that the information contained in a statistical data base represents real world statistical phenomena. As such, ACM assumes correlational behavior among the database attributes. ACM proceeds to compromise confidential information through creation of a regression model, where the confidential attribute is treated as the dependent variable. The typical statistical data base may preclude the direct application of regression. In this scenario, the research introduces the notion of a synthetic data base, created through legitimate queriesmore » of the actual data base, and through proportional random variation of responses to these queries. The synthetic data base is constructed to resemble the actual data base as closely as possible in a statistical sense. ACM then applies regression analysis to the synthetic data base, and utilizes the derived model to estimate confidential information in the actual database.« less

Medial-based deformable models in nonconvex shape-spaces for medical image segmentation.

PubMed

McIntosh, Chris; Hamarneh, Ghassan

2012-01-01

We explore the application of genetic algorithms (GA) to deformable models through the proposition of a novel method for medical image segmentation that combines GA with nonconvex, localized, medial-based shape statistics. We replace the more typical gradient descent optimizer used in deformable models with GA, and the convex, implicit, global shape statistics with nonconvex, explicit, localized ones. Specifically, we propose GA to reduce typical deformable model weaknesses pertaining to model initialization, pose estimation and local minima, through the simultaneous evolution of a large number of models. Furthermore, we constrain the evolution, and thus reduce the size of the search-space, by using statistically-based deformable models whose deformations are intuitive (stretch, bulge, bend) and are driven in terms of localized principal modes of variation, instead of modes of variation across the entire shape that often fail to capture localized shape changes. Although GA are not guaranteed to achieve the global optima, our method compares favorably to the prevalent optimization techniques, convex/nonconvex gradient-based optimizers and to globally optimal graph-theoretic combinatorial optimization techniques, when applied to the task of corpus callosum segmentation in 50 mid-sagittal brain magnetic resonance images.

Statistical Evaluation of Time Series Analysis Techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benignus, V. A.

1973-01-01

The performance of a modified version of NASA's multivariate spectrum analysis program is discussed. A multiple regression model was used to make the revisions. Performance improvements were documented and compared to the standard fast Fourier transform by Monte Carlo techniques.

Statistical atmospheric inversion of local gas emissions by coupling the tracer release technique and local-scale transport modelling: a test case with controlled methane emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ars, Sébastien; Broquet, Grégoire; Yver Kwok, Camille; Roustan, Yelva; Wu, Lin; Arzoumanian, Emmanuel; Bousquet, Philippe

2017-12-01

This study presents a new concept for estimating the pollutant emission rates of a site and its main facilities using a series of atmospheric measurements across the pollutant plumes. This concept combines the tracer release method, local-scale atmospheric transport modelling and a statistical atmospheric inversion approach. The conversion between the controlled emission and the measured atmospheric concentrations of the released tracer across the plume places valuable constraints on the atmospheric transport. This is used to optimise the configuration of the transport model parameters and the model uncertainty statistics in the inversion system. The emission rates of all sources are then inverted to optimise the match between the concentrations simulated with the transport model and the pollutants' measured atmospheric concentrations, accounting for the transport model uncertainty. In principle, by using atmospheric transport modelling, this concept does not strongly rely on the good colocation between the tracer and pollutant sources and can be used to monitor multiple sources within a single site, unlike the classical tracer release technique. The statistical inversion framework and the use of the tracer data for the configuration of the transport and inversion modelling systems should ensure that the transport modelling errors are correctly handled in the source estimation. The potential of this new concept is evaluated with a relatively simple practical implementation based on a Gaussian plume model and a series of inversions of controlled methane point sources using acetylene as a tracer gas. The experimental conditions are chosen so that they are suitable for the use of a Gaussian plume model to simulate the atmospheric transport. In these experiments, different configurations of methane and acetylene point source locations are tested to assess the efficiency of the method in comparison to the classic tracer release technique in coping with the distances between the different methane and acetylene sources. The results from these controlled experiments demonstrate that, when the targeted and tracer gases are not well collocated, this new approach provides a better estimate of the emission rates than the tracer release technique. As an example, the relative error between the estimated and actual emission rates is reduced from 32 % with the tracer release technique to 16 % with the combined approach in the case of a tracer located 60 m upwind of a single methane source. Further studies and more complex implementations with more advanced transport models and more advanced optimisations of their configuration will be required to generalise the applicability of the approach and strengthen its robustness.

Application of multivariable statistical techniques in plant-wide WWTP control strategies analysis.

PubMed

Flores, X; Comas, J; Roda, I R; Jiménez, L; Gernaey, K V

2007-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to present the application of selected multivariable statistical techniques in plant-wide wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) control strategies analysis. In this study, cluster analysis (CA), principal component analysis/factor analysis (PCA/FA) and discriminant analysis (DA) are applied to the evaluation matrix data set obtained by simulation of several control strategies applied to the plant-wide IWA Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2). These techniques allow i) to determine natural groups or clusters of control strategies with a similar behaviour, ii) to find and interpret hidden, complex and casual relation features in the data set and iii) to identify important discriminant variables within the groups found by the cluster analysis. This study illustrates the usefulness of multivariable statistical techniques for both analysis and interpretation of the complex multicriteria data sets and allows an improved use of information for effective evaluation of control strategies.

Application of Multiregressive Linear Models, Dynamic Kriging Models and Neural Network Models to Predictive Maintenance of Hydroelectric Power Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucifredi, A.; Mazzieri, C.; Rossi, M.

2000-05-01

Since the operational conditions of a hydroelectric unit can vary within a wide range, the monitoring system must be able to distinguish between the variations of the monitored variable caused by variations of the operation conditions and those due to arising and progressing of failures and misoperations. The paper aims to identify the best technique to be adopted for the monitoring system. Three different methods have been implemented and compared. Two of them use statistical techniques: the first, the linear multiple regression, expresses the monitored variable as a linear function of the process parameters (independent variables), while the second, the dynamic kriging technique, is a modified technique of multiple linear regression representing the monitored variable as a linear combination of the process variables in such a way as to minimize the variance of the estimate error. The third is based on neural networks. Tests have shown that the monitoring system based on the kriging technique is not affected by some problems common to the other two models e.g. the requirement of a large amount of data for their tuning, both for training the neural network and defining the optimum plane for the multiple regression, not only in the system starting phase but also after a trivial operation of maintenance involving the substitution of machinery components having a direct impact on the observed variable. Or, in addition, the necessity of different models to describe in a satisfactory way the different ranges of operation of the plant. The monitoring system based on the kriging statistical technique overrides the previous difficulties: it does not require a large amount of data to be tuned and is immediately operational: given two points, the third can be immediately estimated; in addition the model follows the system without adapting itself to it. The results of the experimentation performed seem to indicate that a model based on a neural network or on a linear multiple regression is not optimal, and that a different approach is necessary to reduce the amount of work during the learning phase using, when available, all the information stored during the initial phase of the plant to build the reference baseline, elaborating, if it is the case, the raw information available. A mixed approach using the kriging statistical technique and neural network techniques could optimise the result.

Statistical Downscaling of WRF-Chem Model: An Air Quality Analysis over Bogota, Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, Anikender; Rojas, Nestor

2015-04-01

Statistical downscaling is a technique that is used to extract high-resolution information from regional scale variables produced by coarse resolution models such as Chemical Transport Models (CTMs). The fully coupled WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) model is used to simulate air quality over Bogota. Bogota is a tropical Andean megacity located over a high-altitude plateau in the middle of very complex terrain. The WRF-Chem model was adopted for simulating the hourly ozone concentrations. The computational domains were chosen of 120x120x32, 121x121x32 and 121x121x32 grid points with horizontal resolutions of 27, 9 and 3 km respectively. The model was initialized with real boundary conditions using NCAR-NCEP's Final Analysis (FNL) and a 1ox1o (~111 km x 111 km) resolution. Boundary conditions were updated every 6 hours using reanalysis data. The emission rates were obtained from global inventories, namely the REanalysis of the TROpospheric (RETRO) chemical composition and the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR). Multiple linear regression and artificial neural network techniques are used to downscale the model output at each monitoring stations. The results confirm that the statistically downscaled outputs reduce simulated errors by up to 25%. This study provides a general overview of statistical downscaling of chemical transport models and can constitute a reference for future air quality modeling exercises over Bogota and other Colombian cities.

From Weakly Chaotic Dynamics to Deterministic Subdiffusion via Copula Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazé, Pierre

2018-03-01

Copula modeling consists in finding a probabilistic distribution, called copula, whereby its coupling with the marginal distributions of a set of random variables produces their joint distribution. The present work aims to use this technique to connect the statistical distributions of weakly chaotic dynamics and deterministic subdiffusion. More precisely, we decompose the jumps distribution of Geisel-Thomae map into a bivariate one and determine the marginal and copula distributions respectively by infinite ergodic theory and statistical inference techniques. We verify therefore that the characteristic tail distribution of subdiffusion is an extreme value copula coupling Mittag-Leffler distributions. We also present a method to calculate the exact copula and joint distributions in the case where weakly chaotic dynamics and deterministic subdiffusion statistical distributions are already known. Numerical simulations and consistency with the dynamical aspects of the map support our results.

Detection of Erroneous Payments Utilizing Supervised And Unsupervised Data Mining Techniques

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-09-01

will look at which statistical analysis technique will work best in developing and enhancing existing erroneous payment models . Chapter I and II... payment models that are used for selection of records to be audited. The models are set up such that if two or more records have the same payment...Identification Number, Invoice Number and Delivery Order Number are not compared. The DM0102 Duplicate Payment Model will be analyzed in this thesis

Analysis of Variance in Statistical Image Processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurz, Ludwik; Hafed Benteftifa, M.

1997-04-01

A key problem in practical image processing is the detection of specific features in a noisy image. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) techniques can be very effective in such situations, and this book gives a detailed account of the use of ANOVA in statistical image processing. The book begins by describing the statistical representation of images in the various ANOVA models. The authors present a number of computationally efficient algorithms and techniques to deal with such problems as line, edge, and object detection, as well as image restoration and enhancement. By describing the basic principles of these techniques, and showing their use in specific situations, the book will facilitate the design of new algorithms for particular applications. It will be of great interest to graduate students and engineers in the field of image processing and pattern recognition.

Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests

PubMed Central

Cazelles, Bernard; Cazelles, Kévin; Chavez, Mario

2014-01-01

Wavelet analysis is now frequently used to extract information from ecological and epidemiological time series. Statistical hypothesis tests are conducted on associated wavelet quantities to assess the likelihood that they are due to a random process. Such random processes represent null models and are generally based on synthetic data that share some statistical characteristics with the original time series. This allows the comparison of null statistics with those obtained from original time series. When creating synthetic datasets, different techniques of resampling result in different characteristics shared by the synthetic time series. Therefore, it becomes crucial to consider the impact of the resampling method on the results. We have addressed this point by comparing seven different statistical testing methods applied with different real and simulated data. Our results show that statistical assessment of periodic patterns is strongly affected by the choice of the resampling method, so two different resampling techniques could lead to two different conclusions about the same time series. Moreover, our results clearly show the inadequacy of resampling series generated by white noise and red noise that are nevertheless the methods currently used in the wide majority of wavelets applications. Our results highlight that the characteristics of a time series, namely its Fourier spectrum and autocorrelation, are important to consider when choosing the resampling technique. Results suggest that data-driven resampling methods should be used such as the hidden Markov model algorithm and the ‘beta-surrogate’ method. PMID:24284892

Wavelet analysis in ecology and epidemiology: impact of statistical tests.

PubMed

Cazelles, Bernard; Cazelles, Kévin; Chavez, Mario

2014-02-06

Wavelet analysis is now frequently used to extract information from ecological and epidemiological time series. Statistical hypothesis tests are conducted on associated wavelet quantities to assess the likelihood that they are due to a random process. Such random processes represent null models and are generally based on synthetic data that share some statistical characteristics with the original time series. This allows the comparison of null statistics with those obtained from original time series. When creating synthetic datasets, different techniques of resampling result in different characteristics shared by the synthetic time series. Therefore, it becomes crucial to consider the impact of the resampling method on the results. We have addressed this point by comparing seven different statistical testing methods applied with different real and simulated data. Our results show that statistical assessment of periodic patterns is strongly affected by the choice of the resampling method, so two different resampling techniques could lead to two different conclusions about the same time series. Moreover, our results clearly show the inadequacy of resampling series generated by white noise and red noise that are nevertheless the methods currently used in the wide majority of wavelets applications. Our results highlight that the characteristics of a time series, namely its Fourier spectrum and autocorrelation, are important to consider when choosing the resampling technique. Results suggest that data-driven resampling methods should be used such as the hidden Markov model algorithm and the 'beta-surrogate' method.

Emerging Techniques for Dose Optimization in Abdominal CT

PubMed Central

Platt, Joel F.; Goodsitt, Mitchell M.; Al-Hawary, Mahmoud M.; Maturen, Katherine E.; Wasnik, Ashish P.; Pandya, Amit

2014-01-01

Recent advances in computed tomographic (CT) scanning technique such as automated tube current modulation (ATCM), optimized x-ray tube voltage, and better use of iterative image reconstruction have allowed maintenance of good CT image quality with reduced radiation dose. ATCM varies the tube current during scanning to account for differences in patient attenuation, ensuring a more homogeneous image quality, although selection of the appropriate image quality parameter is essential for achieving optimal dose reduction. Reducing the x-ray tube voltage is best suited for evaluating iodinated structures, since the effective energy of the x-ray beam will be closer to the k-edge of iodine, resulting in a higher attenuation for the iodine. The optimal kilovoltage for a CT study should be chosen on the basis of imaging task and patient habitus. The aim of iterative image reconstruction is to identify factors that contribute to noise on CT images with use of statistical models of noise (statistical iterative reconstruction) and selective removal of noise to improve image quality. The degree of noise suppression achieved with statistical iterative reconstruction can be customized to minimize the effect of altered image quality on CT images. Unlike with statistical iterative reconstruction, model-based iterative reconstruction algorithms model both the statistical noise and the physical acquisition process, allowing CT to be performed with further reduction in radiation dose without an increase in image noise or loss of spatial resolution. Understanding these recently developed scanning techniques is essential for optimization of imaging protocols designed to achieve the desired image quality with a reduced dose. © RSNA, 2014 PMID:24428277

The applications of statistical quantification techniques in nanomechanics and nanoelectronics.

PubMed

Mai, Wenjie; Deng, Xinwei

2010-10-08

Although nanoscience and nanotechnology have been developing for approximately two decades and have achieved numerous breakthroughs, the experimental results from nanomaterials with a higher noise level and poorer repeatability than those from bulk materials still remain as a practical issue, and challenge many techniques of quantification of nanomaterials. This work proposes a physical-statistical modeling approach and a global fitting statistical method to use all the available discrete data or quasi-continuous curves to quantify a few targeted physical parameters, which can provide more accurate, efficient and reliable parameter estimates, and give reasonable physical explanations. In the resonance method for measuring the elastic modulus of ZnO nanowires (Zhou et al 2006 Solid State Commun. 139 222-6), our statistical technique gives E = 128.33 GPa instead of the original E = 108 GPa, and unveils a negative bias adjustment f(0). The causes are suggested by the systematic bias in measuring the length of the nanowires. In the electronic measurement of the resistivity of a Mo nanowire (Zach et al 2000 Science 290 2120-3), the proposed new method automatically identified the importance of accounting for the Ohmic contact resistance in the model of the Ohmic behavior in nanoelectronics experiments. The 95% confidence interval of resistivity in the proposed one-step procedure is determined to be 3.57 +/- 0.0274 x 10( - 5) ohm cm, which should be a more reliable and precise estimate. The statistical quantification technique should find wide applications in obtaining better estimations from various systematic errors and biased effects that become more significant at the nanoscale.

On the implications of the classical ergodic theorems: analysis of developmental processes has to focus on intra-individual variation.

PubMed

Molenaar, Peter C M

2008-01-01

It is argued that general mathematical-statistical theorems imply that standard statistical analysis techniques of inter-individual variation are invalid to investigate developmental processes. Developmental processes have to be analyzed at the level of individual subjects, using time series data characterizing the patterns of intra-individual variation. It is shown that standard statistical techniques based on the analysis of inter-individual variation appear to be insensitive to the presence of arbitrary large degrees of inter-individual heterogeneity in the population. An important class of nonlinear epigenetic models of neural growth is described which can explain the occurrence of such heterogeneity in brain structures and behavior. Links with models of developmental instability are discussed. A simulation study based on a chaotic growth model illustrates the invalidity of standard analysis of inter-individual variation, whereas time series analysis of intra-individual variation is able to recover the true state of affairs. (c) 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

Uniting statistical and individual-based approaches for animal movement modelling.

PubMed

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems.

Uniting Statistical and Individual-Based Approaches for Animal Movement Modelling

PubMed Central

Latombe, Guillaume; Parrott, Lael; Basille, Mathieu; Fortin, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dynamic nature of their internal states and the environment directly shape animals' spatial behaviours and give rise to emergent properties at broader scales in natural systems. However, integrating these dynamic features into habitat selection studies remains challenging, due to practically impossible field work to access internal states and the inability of current statistical models to produce dynamic outputs. To address these issues, we developed a robust method, which combines statistical and individual-based modelling. Using a statistical technique for forward modelling of the IBM has the advantage of being faster for parameterization than a pure inverse modelling technique and allows for robust selection of parameters. Using GPS locations from caribou monitored in Québec, caribou movements were modelled based on generative mechanisms accounting for dynamic variables at a low level of emergence. These variables were accessed by replicating real individuals' movements in parallel sub-models, and movement parameters were then empirically parameterized using Step Selection Functions. The final IBM model was validated using both k-fold cross-validation and emergent patterns validation and was tested for two different scenarios, with varying hardwood encroachment. Our results highlighted a functional response in habitat selection, which suggests that our method was able to capture the complexity of the natural system, and adequately provided projections on future possible states of the system in response to different management plans. This is especially relevant for testing the long-term impact of scenarios corresponding to environmental configurations that have yet to be observed in real systems. PMID:24979047

Statistical iterative reconstruction to improve image quality for digital breast tomosynthesis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Shiyu, E-mail: shiyu.xu@gmail.com; Chen, Ying, E-mail: adachen@siu.edu; Lu, Jianping

2015-09-15

Purpose: Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is a novel modality with the potential to improve early detection of breast cancer by providing three-dimensional (3D) imaging with a low radiation dose. 3D image reconstruction presents some challenges: cone-beam and flat-panel geometry, and highly incomplete sampling. A promising means to overcome these challenges is statistical iterative reconstruction (IR), since it provides the flexibility of accurate physics modeling and a general description of system geometry. The authors’ goal was to develop techniques for applying statistical IR to tomosynthesis imaging data. Methods: These techniques include the following: a physics model with a local voxel-pair basedmore » prior with flexible parameters to fine-tune image quality; a precomputed parameter λ in the prior, to remove data dependence and to achieve a uniform resolution property; an effective ray-driven technique to compute the forward and backprojection; and an oversampled, ray-driven method to perform high resolution reconstruction with a practical region-of-interest technique. To assess the performance of these techniques, the authors acquired phantom data on the stationary DBT prototype system. To solve the estimation problem, the authors proposed an optimization-transfer based algorithm framework that potentially allows fewer iterations to achieve an acceptably converged reconstruction. Results: IR improved the detectability of low-contrast and small microcalcifications, reduced cross-plane artifacts, improved spatial resolution, and lowered noise in reconstructed images. Conclusions: Although the computational load remains a significant challenge for practical development, the superior image quality provided by statistical IR, combined with advancing computational techniques, may bring benefits to screening, diagnostics, and intraoperative imaging in clinical applications.« less

Probabilistic registration of an unbiased statistical shape model to ultrasound images of the spine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasoulian, Abtin; Rohling, Robert N.; Abolmaesumi, Purang

2012-02-01

The placement of an epidural needle is among the most difficult regional anesthetic techniques. Ultrasound has been proposed to improve success of placement. However, it has not become the standard-of-care because of limitations in the depictions and interpretation of the key anatomical features. We propose to augment the ultrasound images with a registered statistical shape model of the spine to aid interpretation. The model is created with a novel deformable group-wise registration method which utilizes a probabilistic approach to register groups of point sets. The method is compared to a volume-based model building technique and it demonstrates better generalization and compactness. We instantiate and register the shape model to a spine surface probability map extracted from the ultrasound images. Validation is performed on human subjects. The achieved registration accuracy (2-4 mm) is sufficient to guide the choice of puncture site and trajectory of an epidural needle.

An analytic technique for statistically modeling random atomic clock errors in estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fell, P. J.

1981-01-01

Minimum variance estimation requires that the statistics of random observation errors be modeled properly. If measurements are derived through the use of atomic frequency standards, then one source of error affecting the observable is random fluctuation in frequency. This is the case, for example, with range and integrated Doppler measurements from satellites of the Global Positioning and baseline determination for geodynamic applications. An analytic method is presented which approximates the statistics of this random process. The procedure starts with a model of the Allan variance for a particular oscillator and develops the statistics of range and integrated Doppler measurements. A series of five first order Markov processes is used to approximate the power spectral density obtained from the Allan variance.

Learning planar Ising models

DOE PAGES

Johnson, Jason K.; Oyen, Diane Adele; Chertkov, Michael; ...

2016-12-01

Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of random variables within some tractable family of graphical models. In this paper, we focus on the class of planar Ising models, for which exact inference is tractable using techniques of statistical physics. Based on these techniques and recent methods for planarity testing and planar embedding, we propose a greedy algorithm for learning the bestmore » planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. Finally, we demonstrate our method in simulations and for two applications: modeling senate voting records and identifying geo-chemical depth trends from Mars rover data.« less

Learning planar Ising models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, Jason K.; Oyen, Diane Adele; Chertkov, Michael

Inference and learning of graphical models are both well-studied problems in statistics and machine learning that have found many applications in science and engineering. However, exact inference is intractable in general graphical models, which suggests the problem of seeking the best approximation to a collection of random variables within some tractable family of graphical models. In this paper, we focus on the class of planar Ising models, for which exact inference is tractable using techniques of statistical physics. Based on these techniques and recent methods for planarity testing and planar embedding, we propose a greedy algorithm for learning the bestmore » planar Ising model to approximate an arbitrary collection of binary random variables (possibly from sample data). Given the set of all pairwise correlations among variables, we select a planar graph and optimal planar Ising model defined on this graph to best approximate that set of correlations. Finally, we demonstrate our method in simulations and for two applications: modeling senate voting records and identifying geo-chemical depth trends from Mars rover data.« less

Statistical Approaches to Interpretation of Local, Regional, and National Highway-Runoff and Urban-Stormwater Data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary D.; Granato, Gregory E.

2000-01-01

Decision makers need viable methods for the interpretation of local, regional, and national-highway runoff and urban-stormwater data including flows, concentrations and loads of chemical constituents and sediment, potential effects on receiving waters, and the potential effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs). Valid (useful for intended purposes), current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models are needed to interpret data collected in field studies, to support existing highway and urban-runoffplanning processes, to meet National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) requirements, and to provide methods for computation of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) systematically and economically. Historically, conceptual, simulation, empirical, and statistical models of varying levels of detail, complexity, and uncertainty have been used to meet various data-quality objectives in the decision-making processes necessary for the planning, design, construction, and maintenance of highways and for other land-use applications. Water-quality simulation models attempt a detailed representation of the physical processes and mechanisms at a given site. Empirical and statistical regional water-quality assessment models provide a more general picture of water quality or changes in water quality over a region. All these modeling techniques share one common aspect-their predictive ability is poor without suitable site-specific data for calibration. To properly apply the correct model, one must understand the classification of variables, the unique characteristics of water-resources data, and the concept of population structure and analysis. Classifying variables being used to analyze data may determine which statistical methods are appropriate for data analysis. An understanding of the characteristics of water-resources data is necessary to evaluate the applicability of different statistical methods, to interpret the results of these techniques, and to use tools and techniques that account for the unique nature of water-resources data sets. Populations of data on stormwater-runoff quantity and quality are often best modeled as logarithmic transformations. Therefore, these factors need to be considered to form valid, current, and technically defensible stormwater-runoff models. Regression analysis is an accepted method for interpretation of water-resources data and for prediction of current or future conditions at sites that fit the input data model. Regression analysis is designed to provide an estimate of the average response of a system as it relates to variation in one or more known variables. To produce valid models, however, regression analysis should include visual analysis of scatterplots, an examination of the regression equation, evaluation of the method design assumptions, and regression diagnostics. A number of statistical techniques are described in the text and in the appendixes to provide information necessary to interpret data by use of appropriate methods. Uncertainty is an important part of any decisionmaking process. In order to deal with uncertainty problems, the analyst needs to know the severity of the statistical uncertainty of the methods used to predict water quality. Statistical models need to be based on information that is meaningful, representative, complete, precise, accurate, and comparable to be deemed valid, up to date, and technically supportable. To assess uncertainty in the analytical tools, the modeling methods, and the underlying data set, all of these components need be documented and communicated in an accessible format within project publications.

Information Entropy Production of Maximum Entropy Markov Chains from Spike Trains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cofré, Rodrigo; Maldonado, Cesar

2018-01-01

We consider the maximum entropy Markov chain inference approach to characterize the collective statistics of neuronal spike trains, focusing on the statistical properties of the inferred model. We review large deviations techniques useful in this context to describe properties of accuracy and convergence in terms of sampling size. We use these results to study the statistical fluctuation of correlations, distinguishability and irreversibility of maximum entropy Markov chains. We illustrate these applications using simple examples where the large deviation rate function is explicitly obtained for maximum entropy models of relevance in this field.

Using Multilevel Modeling in Language Assessment Research: A Conceptual Introduction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barkaoui, Khaled

2013-01-01

This article critiques traditional single-level statistical approaches (e.g., multiple regression analysis) to examining relationships between language test scores and variables in the assessment setting. It highlights the conceptual, methodological, and statistical problems associated with these techniques in dealing with multilevel or nested…

Estimating procedure times for surgeries by determining location parameters for the lognormal model.

PubMed

Spangler, William E; Strum, David P; Vargas, Luis G; May, Jerrold H

2004-05-01

We present an empirical study of methods for estimating the location parameter of the lognormal distribution. Our results identify the best order statistic to use, and indicate that using the best order statistic instead of the median may lead to less frequent incorrect rejection of the lognormal model, more accurate critical value estimates, and higher goodness-of-fit. Using simulation data, we constructed and compared two models for identifying the best order statistic, one based on conventional nonlinear regression and the other using a data mining/machine learning technique. Better surgical procedure time estimates may lead to improved surgical operations.

Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tran, Giang T.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.; Sóbester, András; Challenor, Peter

2018-04-01

Climate model components involve both high-dimensional input and output fields. It is desirable to efficiently generate spatio-temporal outputs of these models for applications in integrated assessment modelling or to assess the statistical relationship between such sets of inputs and outputs, for example, uncertainty analysis. However, the need for efficiency often compromises the fidelity of output through the use of low complexity models. Here, we develop a technique which combines statistical emulation with a dimensionality reduction technique to emulate a wide range of outputs from an atmospheric general circulation model, PLASIM, as functions of the boundary forcing prescribed by the ocean component of a lower complexity climate model, GENIE-1. Although accurate and detailed spatial information on atmospheric variables such as precipitation and wind speed is well beyond the capability of GENIE-1's energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere, this study demonstrates that the output of this model is useful in predicting PLASIM's spatio-temporal fields through multi-level emulation. Meaningful information from the fast model, GENIE-1 was extracted by utilising the correlation between variables of the same type in the two models and between variables of different types in PLASIM. We present here the construction and validation of several PLASIM variable emulators and discuss their potential use in developing a hybrid model with statistical components.

Large ensemble modeling of the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, David; Chang, Won; Haran, Murali; Applegate, Patrick; DeConto, Robert

2016-05-01

A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ˜ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds.

Localized Statistics for DW-MRI Fiber Bundle Segmentation

PubMed Central

Lankton, Shawn; Melonakos, John; Malcolm, James; Dambreville, Samuel; Tannenbaum, Allen

2013-01-01

We describe a method for segmenting neural fiber bundles in diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance images (DWMRI). As these bundles traverse the brain to connect regions, their local orientation of diffusion changes drastically, hence a constant global model is inaccurate. We propose a method to compute localized statistics on orientation information and use it to drive a variational active contour segmentation that accurately models the non-homogeneous orientation information present along the bundle. Initialized from a single fiber path, the proposed method proceeds to capture the entire bundle. We demonstrate results using the technique to segment the cingulum bundle and describe several extensions making the technique applicable to a wide range of tissues. PMID:23652079

A computational visual saliency model based on statistics and machine learning.

PubMed

Lin, Ru-Je; Lin, Wei-Song

2014-08-01

Identifying the type of stimuli that attracts human visual attention has been an appealing topic for scientists for many years. In particular, marking the salient regions in images is useful for both psychologists and many computer vision applications. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for producing saliency maps using statistics and machine learning methods. Based on four assumptions, three properties (Feature-Prior, Position-Prior, and Feature-Distribution) can be derived and combined by a simple intersection operation to obtain a saliency map. These properties are implemented by a similarity computation, support vector regression (SVR) technique, statistical analysis of training samples, and information theory using low-level features. This technique is able to learn the preferences of human visual behavior while simultaneously considering feature uniqueness. Experimental results show that our approach performs better in predicting human visual attention regions than 12 other models in two test databases. © 2014 ARVO.

On statistical inference in time series analysis of the evolution of road safety.

PubMed

Commandeur, Jacques J F; Bijleveld, Frits D; Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora

2013-11-01

Data collected for building a road safety observatory usually include observations made sequentially through time. Examples of such data, called time series data, include annual (or monthly) number of road traffic accidents, traffic fatalities or vehicle kilometers driven in a country, as well as the corresponding values of safety performance indicators (e.g., data on speeding, seat belt use, alcohol use, etc.). Some commonly used statistical techniques imply assumptions that are often violated by the special properties of time series data, namely serial dependency among disturbances associated with the observations. The first objective of this paper is to demonstrate the impact of such violations to the applicability of standard methods of statistical inference, which leads to an under or overestimation of the standard error and consequently may produce erroneous inferences. Moreover, having established the adverse consequences of ignoring serial dependency issues, the paper aims to describe rigorous statistical techniques used to overcome them. In particular, appropriate time series analysis techniques of varying complexity are employed to describe the development over time, relating the accident-occurrences to explanatory factors such as exposure measures or safety performance indicators, and forecasting the development into the near future. Traditional regression models (whether they are linear, generalized linear or nonlinear) are shown not to naturally capture the inherent dependencies in time series data. Dedicated time series analysis techniques, such as the ARMA-type and DRAG approaches are discussed next, followed by structural time series models, which are a subclass of state space methods. The paper concludes with general recommendations and practice guidelines for the use of time series models in road safety research. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Balancing Treatment and Control Groups in Quasi-Experiments: An Introduction to Propensity Scoring

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Connelly, Brian S.; Sackett, Paul R.; Waters, Shonna D.

2013-01-01

Organizational and applied sciences have long struggled with improving causal inference in quasi-experiments. We introduce organizational researchers to propensity scoring, a statistical technique that has become popular in other applied sciences as a means for improving internal validity. Propensity scoring statistically models how individuals in…

A Review of Meta-Analysis Packages in R

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Polanin, Joshua R.; Hennessy, Emily A.; Tanner-Smith, Emily E.

2017-01-01

Meta-analysis is a statistical technique that allows an analyst to synthesize effect sizes from multiple primary studies. To estimate meta-analysis models, the open-source statistical environment R is quickly becoming a popular choice. The meta-analytic community has contributed to this growth by developing numerous packages specific to…

Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Erin E. Peterson; Jay M. Ver Hoef; Seth J. Wenger; Jeffrey A. Falke; Christian E. Torgersen; Colin Sowder; E. Ashley Steel; Marie-Josee Fortin; Chris E. Jordan; Aaron S. Ruesch; Nicholas Som; Pascal Monestiez

2014-01-01

Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for...

Using Artificial Neural Networks in Educational Research: Some Comparisons with Linear Statistical Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Everson, Howard T.; And Others

This paper explores the feasibility of neural computing methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and abductory induction mechanisms (AIM) for use in educational measurement. ANNs and AIMS methods are contrasted with more traditional statistical techniques, such as multiple regression and discriminant function analyses, for making…

Model Checking Techniques for Assessing Functional Form Specifications in Censored Linear Regression Models.

PubMed

León, Larry F; Cai, Tianxi

2012-04-01

In this paper we develop model checking techniques for assessing functional form specifications of covariates in censored linear regression models. These procedures are based on a censored data analog to taking cumulative sums of "robust" residuals over the space of the covariate under investigation. These cumulative sums are formed by integrating certain Kaplan-Meier estimators and may be viewed as "robust" censored data analogs to the processes considered by Lin, Wei & Ying (2002). The null distributions of these stochastic processes can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be graphically compared with a few realizations from the Gaussian process. We also develop formal test statistics for numerical comparison. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether an apparent trend seen in a residual plot reects model misspecification or natural variation. We illustrate the methods with a well known dataset. In addition, we examine the finite sample performance of the proposed test statistics in simulation experiments. In our simulation experiments, the proposed test statistics have good power of detecting misspecification while at the same time controlling the size of the test.

Bayesian inference for the spatio-temporal invasion of alien species.

PubMed

Cook, Alex; Marion, Glenn; Butler, Adam; Gibson, Gavin

2007-08-01

In this paper we develop a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation in a stochastic spatio-temporal model of the spread of invasive species across a landscape. To date, statistical techniques, such as logistic and autologistic regression, have outstripped stochastic spatio-temporal models in their ability to handle large numbers of covariates. Here we seek to address this problem by making use of a range of covariates describing the bio-geographical features of the landscape. Relative to regression techniques, stochastic spatio-temporal models are more transparent in their representation of biological processes. They also explicitly model temporal change, and therefore do not require the assumption that the species' distribution (or other spatial pattern) has already reached equilibrium as is often the case with standard statistical approaches. In order to illustrate the use of such techniques we apply them to the analysis of data detailing the spread of an invasive plant, Heracleum mantegazzianum, across Britain in the 20th Century using geo-referenced covariate information describing local temperature, elevation and habitat type. The use of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling within a Bayesian framework facilitates statistical assessments of differences in the suitability of different habitat classes for H. mantegazzianum, and enables predictions of future spread to account for parametric uncertainty and system variability. Our results show that ignoring such covariate information may lead to biased estimates of key processes and implausible predictions of future distributions.

MANCOVA for one way classification with homogeneity of regression coefficient vectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mokesh Rayalu, G.; Ravisankar, J.; Mythili, G. Y.

2017-11-01

The MANOVA and MANCOVA are the extensions of the univariate ANOVA and ANCOVA techniques to multidimensional or vector valued observations. The assumption of a Gaussian distribution has been replaced with the Multivariate Gaussian distribution for the vectors data and residual term variables in the statistical models of these techniques. The objective of MANCOVA is to determine if there are statistically reliable mean differences that can be demonstrated between groups later modifying the newly created variable. When randomization assignment of samples or subjects to groups is not possible, multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) provides statistical matching of groups by adjusting dependent variables as if all subjects scored the same on the covariates. In this research article, an extension has been made to the MANCOVA technique with more number of covariates and homogeneity of regression coefficient vectors is also tested.

A high-frequency warm shallow water acoustic communications channel model and measurements.

PubMed

Chitre, Mandar

2007-11-01

Underwater acoustic communication is a core enabling technology with applications in ocean monitoring using remote sensors and autonomous underwater vehicles. One of the more challenging underwater acoustic communication channels is the medium-range very shallow warm-water channel, common in tropical coastal regions. This channel exhibits two key features-extensive time-varying multipath and high levels of non-Gaussian ambient noise due to snapping shrimp-both of which limit the performance of traditional communication techniques. A good understanding of the communications channel is key to the design of communication systems. It aids in the development of signal processing techniques as well as in the testing of the techniques via simulation. In this article, a physics-based channel model for the very shallow warm-water acoustic channel at high frequencies is developed, which are of interest to medium-range communication system developers. The model is based on ray acoustics and includes time-varying statistical effects as well as non-Gaussian ambient noise statistics observed during channel studies. The model is calibrated and its accuracy validated using measurements made at sea.

Data Assimilation to Extract Soil Moisture Information From SMAP Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kolassa, J.; Reichle, R. H.; Liu, Q.; Alemohammad, S. H.; Gentine, P.

2017-01-01

Statistical techniques permit the retrieval of soil moisture estimates in a model climatology while retaining the spatial and temporal signatures of the satellite observations. As a consequence, they can be used to reduce the need for localized bias correction techniques typically implemented in data assimilation (DA) systems that tend to remove some of the independent information provided by satellite observations. Here, we use a statistical neural network (NN) algorithm to retrieve SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) surface soil moisture estimates in the climatology of the NASA Catchment land surface model. Assimilating these estimates without additional bias correction is found to significantly reduce the model error and increase the temporal correlation against SMAP CalVal in situ observations over the contiguous United States. A comparison with assimilation experiments using traditional bias correction techniques shows that the NN approach better retains the independent information provided by the SMAP observations and thus leads to larger model skill improvements during the assimilation. A comparison with the SMAP Level 4 product shows that the NN approach is able to provide comparable skill improvements and thus represents a viable assimilation approach.

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binner, J. M.; Tino, P.; Tepper, J.; Anderson, R.; Jones, B.; Kendall, G.

2010-11-01

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression-techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.

Collisional-radiative switching - A powerful technique for converging non-LTE calculations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hummer, D. G.; Voels, S. A.

1988-01-01

A very simple technique has been developed to converge statistical equilibrium and model atmospheric calculations in extreme non-LTE conditions when the usual iterative methods fail to converge from an LTE starting model. The proposed technique is based on a smooth transition from a collision-dominated LTE situation to the desired non-LTE conditions in which radiation dominates, at least in the most important transitions. The proposed approach was used to successfully compute stellar models with He abundances of 0.20, 0.30, and 0.50; Teff = 30,000 K, and log g = 2.9.

Alignment issues, correlation techniques and their assessment for a visible light imaging-based 3D printer quality control system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straub, Jeremy

2016-05-01

Quality control is critical to manufacturing. Frequently, techniques are used to define object conformity bounds, based on historical quality data. This paper considers techniques for bespoke and small batch jobs that are not statistical model based. These techniques also serve jobs where 100% validation is needed due to the mission or safety critical nature of particular parts. One issue with this type of system is alignment discrepancies between the generated model and the physical part. This paper discusses and evaluates techniques for characterizing and correcting alignment issues between the projected and perceived data sets to prevent errors attributable to misalignment.

Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

2016-04-01

In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

Applying Statistical Models and Parametric Distance Measures for Music Similarity Search

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukashevich, Hanna; Dittmar, Christian; Bastuck, Christoph

Automatic deriving of similarity relations between music pieces is an inherent field of music information retrieval research. Due to the nearly unrestricted amount of musical data, the real-world similarity search algorithms have to be highly efficient and scalable. The possible solution is to represent each music excerpt with a statistical model (ex. Gaussian mixture model) and thus to reduce the computational costs by applying the parametric distance measures between the models. In this paper we discuss the combinations of applying different parametric modelling techniques and distance measures and weigh the benefits of each one against the others.

21 CFR 820.250 - Statistical techniques.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Statistical techniques. 820.250 Section 820.250...) MEDICAL DEVICES QUALITY SYSTEM REGULATION Statistical Techniques § 820.250 Statistical techniques. (a... statistical techniques required for establishing, controlling, and verifying the acceptability of process...

21 CFR 820.250 - Statistical techniques.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 21 Food and Drugs 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Statistical techniques. 820.250 Section 820.250...) MEDICAL DEVICES QUALITY SYSTEM REGULATION Statistical Techniques § 820.250 Statistical techniques. (a... statistical techniques required for establishing, controlling, and verifying the acceptability of process...

Analyzing Mixed-Dyadic Data Using Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peugh, James L.; DiLillo, David; Panuzio, Jillian

2013-01-01

Mixed-dyadic data, collected from distinguishable (nonexchangeable) or indistinguishable (exchangeable) dyads, require statistical analysis techniques that model the variation within dyads and between dyads appropriately. The purpose of this article is to provide a tutorial for performing structural equation modeling analyses of cross-sectional…

New efficient optimizing techniques for Kalman filters and numerical weather prediction models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Famelis, Ioannis; Galanis, George; Liakatas, Aristotelis

2016-06-01

The need for accurate local environmental predictions and simulations beyond the classical meteorological forecasts are increasing the last years due to the great number of applications that are directly or not affected: renewable energy resource assessment, natural hazards early warning systems, global warming and questions on the climate change can be listed among them. Within this framework the utilization of numerical weather and wave prediction systems in conjunction with advanced statistical techniques that support the elimination of the model bias and the reduction of the error variability may successfully address the above issues. In the present work, new optimization methods are studied and tested in selected areas of Greece where the use of renewable energy sources is of critical. The added value of the proposed work is due to the solid mathematical background adopted making use of Information Geometry and Statistical techniques, new versions of Kalman filters and state of the art numerical analysis tools.

A resilient and efficient CFD framework: Statistical learning tools for multi-fidelity and heterogeneous information fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Seungjoon; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Karniadakis, George Em

2017-09-01

Exascale-level simulations require fault-resilient algorithms that are robust against repeated and expected software and/or hardware failures during computations, which may render the simulation results unsatisfactory. If each processor can share some global information about the simulation from a coarse, limited accuracy but relatively costless auxiliary simulator we can effectively fill-in the missing spatial data at the required times by a statistical learning technique - multi-level Gaussian process regression, on the fly; this has been demonstrated in previous work [1]. Based on the previous work, we also employ another (nonlinear) statistical learning technique, Diffusion Maps, that detects computational redundancy in time and hence accelerate the simulation by projective time integration, giving the overall computation a "patch dynamics" flavor. Furthermore, we are now able to perform information fusion with multi-fidelity and heterogeneous data (including stochastic data). Finally, we set the foundations of a new framework in CFD, called patch simulation, that combines information fusion techniques from, in principle, multiple fidelity and resolution simulations (and even experiments) with a new adaptive timestep refinement technique. We present two benchmark problems (the heat equation and the Navier-Stokes equations) to demonstrate the new capability that statistical learning tools can bring to traditional scientific computing algorithms. For each problem, we rely on heterogeneous and multi-fidelity data, either from a coarse simulation of the same equation or from a stochastic, particle-based, more "microscopic" simulation. We consider, as such "auxiliary" models, a Monte Carlo random walk for the heat equation and a dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) model for the Navier-Stokes equations. More broadly, in this paper we demonstrate the symbiotic and synergistic combination of statistical learning, domain decomposition, and scientific computing in exascale simulations.

Function modeling improves the efficiency of spatial modeling using big data from remote sensing

Treesearch

John Hogland; Nathaniel Anderson

2017-01-01

Spatial modeling is an integral component of most geographic information systems (GISs). However, conventional GIS modeling techniques can require substantial processing time and storage space and have limited statistical and machine learning functionality. To address these limitations, many have parallelized spatial models using multiple coding libraries and have...

Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities - Frequency variability in the tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

1992-01-01

Two techniques were developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters that overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant 'blue shift' of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on 'global' internal-wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12 deg of the equator.

Application of a Fuzzy Verification Technique for Assessment of the Weather Running Estimate-Nowcast (WRE-N) Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-01

comes when considering numerous scores and statistics during a preliminary evaluation of the applicability of the fuzzy- verification minimum coverage...The selection of thresholds with which to generate categorical-verification scores and statistics from the application of both traditional and...of statistically significant numbers of cases; the latter presents a challenge of limited application for assessment of the forecast models’ ability

Statistical Techniques For Real-time Anomaly Detection Using Spark Over Multi-source VMware Performance Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Solaimani, Mohiuddin; Iftekhar, Mohammed; Khan, Latifur

Anomaly detection refers to the identi cation of an irregular or unusual pat- tern which deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. Such deviated patterns typically correspond to samples of interest and are assigned different labels in different domains, such as outliers, anomalies, exceptions, or malware. Detecting anomalies in fast, voluminous streams of data is a formidable chal- lenge. This paper presents a novel, generic, real-time distributed anomaly detection framework for heterogeneous streaming data where anomalies appear as a group. We have developed a distributed statistical approach to build a model and later use it to detect anomaly. Asmore » a case study, we investigate group anomaly de- tection for a VMware-based cloud data center, which maintains a large number of virtual machines (VMs). We have built our framework using Apache Spark to get higher throughput and lower data processing time on streaming data. We have developed a window-based statistical anomaly detection technique to detect anomalies that appear sporadically. We then relaxed this constraint with higher accuracy by implementing a cluster-based technique to detect sporadic and continuous anomalies. We conclude that our cluster-based technique out- performs other statistical techniques with higher accuracy and lower processing time.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kogalovskii, M.R.

This paper presents a review of problems related to statistical database systems, which are wide-spread in various fields of activity. Statistical databases (SDB) are referred to as databases that consist of data and are used for statistical analysis. Topics under consideration are: SDB peculiarities, properties of data models adequate for SDB requirements, metadata functions, null-value problems, SDB compromise protection problems, stored data compression techniques, and statistical data representation means. Also examined is whether the present Database Management Systems (DBMS) satisfy the SDB requirements. Some actual research directions in SDB systems are considered.

Comparisons of Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation and Model Output Statistics in Improving Atmospheric Chemistry Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Chaoqun; Wang, Tijian; Zang, Zengliang; Li, Zhijin

2018-07-01

Atmospheric chemistry models usually perform badly in forecasting wintertime air pollution because of their uncertainties. Generally, such uncertainties can be decreased effectively by techniques such as data assimilation (DA) and model output statistics (MOS). However, the relative importance and combined effects of the two techniques have not been clarified. Here, a one-month air quality forecast with the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was carried out in a virtually operational setup focusing on Hebei Province, China. Meanwhile, three-dimensional variational (3DVar) DA and MOS based on one-dimensional Kalman filtering were implemented separately and simultaneously to investigate their performance in improving the model forecast. Comparison with observations shows that the chemistry forecast with MOS outperforms that with 3DVar DA, which could be seen in all the species tested over the whole 72 forecast hours. Combined use of both techniques does not guarantee a better forecast than MOS only, with the improvements and degradations being small and appearing rather randomly. Results indicate that the implementation of MOS is more suitable than 3DVar DA in improving the operational forecasting ability of WRF-Chem.

Development of a statistical model for cervical cancer cell death with irreversible electroporation in vitro.

PubMed

Yang, Yongji; Moser, Michael A J; Zhang, Edwin; Zhang, Wenjun; Zhang, Bing

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a statistical model for cell death by irreversible electroporation (IRE) and to show that the statistic model is more accurate than the electric field threshold model in the literature using cervical cancer cells in vitro. HeLa cell line was cultured and treated with different IRE protocols in order to obtain data for modeling the statistical relationship between the cell death and pulse-setting parameters. In total, 340 in vitro experiments were performed with a commercial IRE pulse system, including a pulse generator and an electric cuvette. Trypan blue staining technique was used to evaluate cell death after 4 hours of incubation following IRE treatment. Peleg-Fermi model was used in the study to build the statistical relationship using the cell viability data obtained from the in vitro experiments. A finite element model of IRE for the electric field distribution was also built. Comparison of ablation zones between the statistical model and electric threshold model (drawn from the finite element model) was used to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the description of the ablation zone and its applicability in different pulse-setting parameters. The statistical models describing the relationships between HeLa cell death and pulse length and the number of pulses, respectively, were built. The values of the curve fitting parameters were obtained using the Peleg-Fermi model for the treatment of cervical cancer with IRE. The difference in the ablation zone between the statistical model and the electric threshold model was also illustrated to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the representation of ablation zone in IRE. This study concluded that: (1) the proposed statistical model accurately described the ablation zone of IRE with cervical cancer cells, and was more accurate compared with the electric field model; (2) the proposed statistical model was able to estimate the value of electric field threshold for the computer simulation of IRE in the treatment of cervical cancer; and (3) the proposed statistical model was able to express the change in ablation zone with the change in pulse-setting parameters.

Moisture Damage Modeling in Lime and Chemically Modified Asphalt at Nanolevel Using Ensemble Computational Intelligence

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

This paper measures the adhesion/cohesion force among asphalt molecules at nanoscale level using an Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and models the moisture damage by applying state-of-the-art Computational Intelligence (CI) techniques (e.g., artificial neural network (ANN), support vector regression (SVR), and an Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)). Various combinations of lime and chemicals as well as dry and wet environments are used to produce different asphalt samples. The parameters that were varied to generate different asphalt samples and measure the corresponding adhesion/cohesion forces are percentage of antistripping agents (e.g., Lime and Unichem), AFM tips K values, and AFM tip types. The CI methods are trained to model the adhesion/cohesion forces given the variation in values of the above parameters. To achieve enhanced performance, the statistical methods such as average, weighted average, and regression of the outputs generated by the CI techniques are used. The experimental results show that, of the three individual CI methods, ANN can model moisture damage to lime- and chemically modified asphalt better than the other two CI techniques for both wet and dry conditions. Moreover, the ensemble of CI along with statistical measurement provides better accuracy than any of the individual CI techniques. PMID:29849551

Simplified estimation of age-specific reference intervals for skewed data.

PubMed

Wright, E M; Royston, P

1997-12-30

Age-specific reference intervals are commonly used in medical screening and clinical practice, where interest lies in the detection of extreme values. Many different statistical approaches have been published on this topic. The advantages of a parametric method are that they necessarily produce smooth centile curves, the entire density is estimated and an explicit formula is available for the centiles. The method proposed here is a simplified version of a recent approach proposed by Royston and Wright. Basic transformations of the data and multiple regression techniques are combined to model the mean, standard deviation and skewness. Using these simple tools, which are implemented in almost all statistical computer packages, age-specific reference intervals may be obtained. The scope of the method is illustrated by fitting models to several real data sets and assessing each model using goodness-of-fit techniques.

Computing maximum-likelihood estimates for parameters of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, David I.

2012-01-01

This report presents the mathematical expressions and the computational techniques required to compute maximum-likelihood estimates for the parameters of the National Descriptive Model of Mercury in Fish (NDMMF), a statistical model used to predict the concentration of methylmercury in fish tissue. The expressions and techniques reported here were prepared to support the development of custom software capable of computing NDMMF parameter estimates more quickly and using less computer memory than is currently possible with available general-purpose statistical software. Computation of maximum-likelihood estimates for the NDMMF by numerical solution of a system of simultaneous equations through repeated Newton-Raphson iterations is described. This report explains the derivation of the mathematical expressions required for computational parameter estimation in sufficient detail to facilitate future derivations for any revised versions of the NDMMF that may be developed.

Theory and analysis of statistical discriminant techniques as applied to remote sensing data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odell, P. L.

1973-01-01

Classification of remote earth resources sensing data according to normed exponential density statistics is reported. The use of density models appropriate for several physical situations provides an exact solution for the probabilities of classifications associated with the Bayes discriminant procedure even when the covariance matrices are unequal.

Statistics and Style. Mathematical Linguistics and Automatic Language Processing No. 6.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dolezel, Lubomir, Ed.; Bailey, Richard W., Ed.

This collection of 17 articles concerning the application of mathematical models and techniques to the study of literary style is an attempt to overcome the communication barriers that exist between scholars in the various fields that find their meeting ground in statistical stylistics. The articles selected were chosen to represent the best…

The Use of Computer-Assisted Identification of ARIMA Time-Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Roger L.

This study was conducted to determine the effects of using various levels of tutorial statistical software for the tentative identification of nonseasonal ARIMA models, a statistical technique proposed by Box and Jenkins for the interpretation of time-series data. The Box-Jenkins approach is an iterative process encompassing several stages of…

Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

PubMed

White, H; Racine, J

2001-01-01

We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

The Development of Statistical Models for Predicting Surgical Site Infections in Japan: Toward a Statistical Model-Based Standardized Infection Ratio.

PubMed

Fukuda, Haruhisa; Kuroki, Manabu

2016-03-01

To develop and internally validate a surgical site infection (SSI) prediction model for Japan. Retrospective observational cohort study. We analyzed surveillance data submitted to the Japan Nosocomial Infections Surveillance system for patients who had undergone target surgical procedures from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2012. Logistic regression analyses were used to develop statistical models for predicting SSIs. An SSI prediction model was constructed for each of the procedure categories by statistically selecting the appropriate risk factors from among the collected surveillance data and determining their optimal categorization. Standard bootstrapping techniques were applied to assess potential overfitting. The C-index was used to compare the predictive performances of the new statistical models with those of models based on conventional risk index variables. The study sample comprised 349,987 cases from 428 participant hospitals throughout Japan, and the overall SSI incidence was 7.0%. The C-indices of the new statistical models were significantly higher than those of the conventional risk index models in 21 (67.7%) of the 31 procedure categories (P<.05). No significant overfitting was detected. Japan-specific SSI prediction models were shown to generally have higher accuracy than conventional risk index models. These new models may have applications in assessing hospital performance and identifying high-risk patients in specific procedure categories.

Regression Commonality Analysis: A Technique for Quantitative Theory Building

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nimon, Kim; Reio, Thomas G., Jr.

2011-01-01

When it comes to multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), it is common for social and behavioral science researchers to rely predominately on beta weights when evaluating how predictors contribute to a regression model. Presenting an underutilized statistical technique, this article describes how organizational researchers can use commonality…

Structural Equation Modeling: Possibilities for Language Learning Researchers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hancock, Gregory R.; Schoonen, Rob

2015-01-01

Although classical statistical techniques have been a valuable tool in second language (L2) research, L2 research questions have started to grow beyond those techniques' capabilities, and indeed are often limited by them. Questions about how complex constructs relate to each other or to constituent subskills, about longitudinal development in…

Statistical performance and information content of time lag analysis and redundancy analysis in time series modeling.

PubMed

Angeler, David G; Viedma, Olga; Moreno, José M

2009-11-01

Time lag analysis (TLA) is a distance-based approach used to study temporal dynamics of ecological communities by measuring community dissimilarity over increasing time lags. Despite its increased use in recent years, its performance in comparison with other more direct methods (i.e., canonical ordination) has not been evaluated. This study fills this gap using extensive simulations and real data sets from experimental temporary ponds (true zooplankton communities) and landscape studies (landscape categories as pseudo-communities) that differ in community structure and anthropogenic stress history. Modeling time with a principal coordinate of neighborhood matrices (PCNM) approach, the canonical ordination technique (redundancy analysis; RDA) consistently outperformed the other statistical tests (i.e., TLAs, Mantel test, and RDA based on linear time trends) using all real data. In addition, the RDA-PCNM revealed different patterns of temporal change, and the strength of each individual time pattern, in terms of adjusted variance explained, could be evaluated, It also identified species contributions to these patterns of temporal change. This additional information is not provided by distance-based methods. The simulation study revealed better Type I error properties of the canonical ordination techniques compared with the distance-based approaches when no deterministic component of change was imposed on the communities. The simulation also revealed that strong emphasis on uniform deterministic change and low variability at other temporal scales is needed to result in decreased statistical power of the RDA-PCNM approach relative to the other methods. Based on the statistical performance of and information content provided by RDA-PCNM models, this technique serves ecologists as a powerful tool for modeling temporal change of ecological (pseudo-) communities.

Machine Learning Predictions of a Multiresolution Climate Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Gemma J.; Lucas, Donald D.

2018-05-01

Statistical models of high-resolution climate models are useful for many purposes, including sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, but building them can be computationally prohibitive. We generated a unique multiresolution perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. We use a novel application of a machine learning technique known as random forests to train a statistical model on the ensemble to make high-resolution model predictions of two important quantities: global mean top-of-atmosphere energy flux and precipitation. The random forests leverage cheaper low-resolution simulations, greatly reducing the number of high-resolution simulations required to train the statistical model. We demonstrate that high-resolution predictions of these quantities can be obtained by training on an ensemble that includes only a small number of high-resolution simulations. We also find that global annually averaged precipitation is more sensitive to resolution changes than to any of the model parameters considered.

Generation of future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment by applying bias-correction techniques, delta-change approaches and stochastic Weather Generators at different spatial scale. Analysis of their influence on basic and drought statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collados-Lara, Antonio-Juan; Pulido-Velazquez, David; Pardo-Iguzquiza, Eulogio

2017-04-01

Assessing impacts of potential future climate change scenarios in precipitation and temperature is essential to design adaptive strategies in water resources systems. The objective of this work is to analyze the possibilities of different statistical downscaling methods to generate future potential scenarios in an Alpine Catchment from historical data and the available climate models simulations performed in the frame of the CORDEX EU project. The initial information employed to define these downscaling approaches are the historical climatic data (taken from the Spain02 project for the period 1971-2000 with a spatial resolution of 12.5 Km) and the future series provided by climatic models in the horizon period 2071-2100 . We have used information coming from nine climate model simulations (obtained from five different Regional climate models (RCM) nested to four different Global Climate Models (GCM)) from the European CORDEX project. In our application we have focused on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario, which is the most unfavorable scenario considered in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). For each RCM we have generated future climate series for the period 2071-2100 by applying two different approaches, bias correction and delta change, and five different transformation techniques (first moment correction, first and second moment correction, regression functions, quantile mapping using distribution derived transformation and quantile mapping using empirical quantiles) for both of them. Ensembles of the obtained series were proposed to obtain more representative potential future climate scenarios to be employed to study potential impacts. In this work we propose a non-equifeaseble combination of the future series giving more weight to those coming from models (delta change approaches) or combination of models and techniques that provides better approximation to the basic and drought statistic of the historical data. A multi-objective analysis using basic statistics (mean, standard deviation and asymmetry coefficient) and droughts statistics (duration, magnitude and intensity) has been performed to identify which models are better in terms of goodness of fit to reproduce the historical series. The drought statistics have been obtained from the Standard Precipitation index (SPI) series using the Theory of Runs. This analysis allows discriminate the best RCM and the best combination of model and correction technique in the bias-correction method. We have also analyzed the possibilities of using different Stochastic Weather Generators to approximate the basic and droughts statistics of the historical series. These analyses have been performed in our case study in a lumped and in a distributed way in order to assess its sensibility to the spatial scale. The statistic of the future temperature series obtained with different ensemble options are quite homogeneous, but the precipitation shows a higher sensibility to the adopted method and spatial scale. The global increment in the mean temperature values are 31.79 %, 31.79 %, 31.03 % and 31.74 % for the distributed bias-correction, distributed delta-change, lumped bias-correction and lumped delta-change ensembles respectively and in the precipitation they are -25.48 %, -28.49 %, -26.42 % and -27.35% respectively. Acknowledgments: This research work has been partially supported by the GESINHIMPADAPT project (CGL2013-48424-C2-2-R) with Spanish MINECO funds. We would also like to thank Spain02 and CORDEX projects for the data provided for this study and the R package qmap.

Desensitized Optimal Filtering and Sensor Fusion Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karlgaard, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

Analytical Mechanics Associates, Inc., has developed a software toolkit that filters and processes navigational data from multiple sensor sources. A key component of the toolkit is a trajectory optimization technique that reduces the sensitivity of Kalman filters with respect to model parameter uncertainties. The sensor fusion toolkit also integrates recent advances in adaptive Kalman and sigma-point filters for non-Gaussian problems with error statistics. This Phase II effort provides new filtering and sensor fusion techniques in a convenient package that can be used as a stand-alone application for ground support and/or onboard use. Its modular architecture enables ready integration with existing tools. A suite of sensor models and noise distribution as well as Monte Carlo analysis capability are included to enable statistical performance evaluations.

Statistical robustness of machine-learning estimates for characterizing a groundwater-surface water system, Southland, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedel, M. J.; Daughney, C.

2016-12-01

The development of a successful surface-groundwater management strategy depends on the quality of data provided for analysis. This study evaluates the statistical robustness when using a modified self-organizing map (MSOM) technique to estimate missing values for three hypersurface models: synoptic groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry, time-series of groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry, and mixed-survey (combination of groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry and lithologies) hydrostratigraphic unit data. These models of increasing complexity are developed and validated based on observations from the Southland region of New Zealand. In each case, the estimation method is sufficiently robust to cope with groundwater-surface water hydrochemistry vagaries due to sample size and extreme data insufficiency, even when >80% of the data are missing. The estimation of surface water hydrochemistry time series values enabled the evaluation of seasonal variation, and the imputation of lithologies facilitated the evaluation of hydrostratigraphic controls on groundwater-surface water interaction. The robust statistical results for groundwater-surface water models of increasing data complexity provide justification to apply the MSOM technique in other regions of New Zealand and abroad.

Multivariate model of female black bear habitat use for a Geographic Information System

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Joseph D.; Dunn, James E.; Smith, Kimberly G.

1993-01-01

Simple univariate statistical techniques may not adequately assess the multidimensional nature of habitats used by wildlife. Thus, we developed a multivariate method to model habitat-use potential using a set of female black bear (Ursus americanus) radio locations and habitat data consisting of forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to streams, and forest cover type diversity score in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. The model is based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. That statistic is a measure of dissimilarity and represents a standardized squared distance between a set of sample variates and an ideal based on the mean of variates associated with animal observations. Calculations were made with the GIS to produce a map containing Mahalanobis distance values within each cell on a 60- × 60-m grid. The model identified areas of high habitat use potential that could not otherwise be identified by independent perusal of any single map layer. This technique avoids many pitfalls that commonly affect typical multivariate analyses of habitat use and is a useful tool for habitat manipulation or mitigation to favor terrestrial vertebrates that use habitats on a landscape scale.

Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilby, R.L.; Hay, L.E.; Gutowski, W.J.; Arritt, R.W.; Takle, E.S.; Pan, Z.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.

2000-01-01

Daily rainfall and surface temperature series were simulated for the Animas River basin, Colorado using dynamically and statistically downscaled output from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) re-analysis. A distributed hydrological model was then applied to the downscaled data. Relative to raw NCEP output, downscaled climate variables provided more realistic stimulations of basin scale hydrology. However, the results highlight the sensitivity of modeled processes to the choice of downscaling technique, and point to the need for caution when interpreting future hydrological scenarios.

Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

Multi-Site and Multi-Variables Statistical Downscaling Technique in the Monsoon Dominated Region of Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khan, Firdos; Pilz, Jürgen

2016-04-01

South Asia is under the severe impacts of changing climate and global warming. The last two decades showed that climate change or global warming is happening and the first decade of 21st century is considered as the warmest decade over Pakistan ever in history where temperature reached 53 0C in 2010. Consequently, the spatio-temporal distribution and intensity of precipitation is badly effected and causes floods, cyclones and hurricanes in the region which further have impacts on agriculture, water, health etc. To cope with the situation, it is important to conduct impact assessment studies and take adaptation and mitigation remedies. For impact assessment studies, we need climate variables at higher resolution. Downscaling techniques are used to produce climate variables at higher resolution; these techniques are broadly divided into two types, statistical downscaling and dynamical downscaling. The target location of this study is the monsoon dominated region of Pakistan. One reason for choosing this area is because the contribution of monsoon rains in this area is more than 80 % of the total rainfall. This study evaluates a statistical downscaling technique which can be then used for downscaling climatic variables. Two statistical techniques i.e. quantile regression and copula modeling are combined in order to produce realistic results for climate variables in the area under-study. To reduce the dimension of input data and deal with multicollinearity problems, empirical orthogonal functions will be used. Advantages of this new method are: (1) it is more robust to outliers as compared to ordinary least squares estimates and other estimation methods based on central tendency and dispersion measures; (2) it preserves the dependence among variables and among sites and (3) it can be used to combine different types of distributions. This is important in our case because we are dealing with climatic variables having different distributions over different meteorological stations. The proposed model will be validated by using the (National Centers for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research) NCEP/NCAR predictors for the period of 1960-1990 and validated for 1990-2000. To investigate the efficiency of the proposed model, it will be compared with the multivariate multiple regression model and with dynamical downscaling climate models by using different climate indices that describe the frequency, intensity and duration of the variables of interest. KEY WORDS: Climate change, Copula, Monsoon, Quantile regression, Spatio-temporal distribution.

Space, time, and the third dimension (model error)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.

1979-01-01

The space-time tradeoff of hydrologic data collection (the ability to substitute spatial coverage for temporal extension of records or vice versa) is controlled jointly by the statistical properties of the phenomena that are being measured and by the model that is used to meld the information sources. The control exerted on the space-time tradeoff by the model and its accompanying errors has seldom been studied explicitly. The technique, known as Network Analyses for Regional Information (NARI), permits such a study of the regional regression model that is used to relate streamflow parameters to the physical and climatic characteristics of the drainage basin.The NARI technique shows that model improvement is a viable and sometimes necessary means of improving regional data collection systems. Model improvement provides an immediate increase in the accuracy of regional parameter estimation and also increases the information potential of future data collection. Model improvement, which can only be measured in a statistical sense, cannot be quantitatively estimated prior to its achievement; thus an attempt to upgrade a particular model entails a certain degree of risk on the part of the hydrologist.

Frequentist Model Averaging in Structural Equation Modelling.

PubMed

Jin, Shaobo; Ankargren, Sebastian

2018-06-04

Model selection from a set of candidate models plays an important role in many structural equation modelling applications. However, traditional model selection methods introduce extra randomness that is not accounted for by post-model selection inference. In the current study, we propose a model averaging technique within the frequentist statistical framework. Instead of selecting an optimal model, the contributions of all candidate models are acknowledged. Valid confidence intervals and a [Formula: see text] test statistic are proposed. A simulation study shows that the proposed method is able to produce a robust mean-squared error, a better coverage probability, and a better goodness-of-fit test compared to model selection. It is an interesting compromise between model selection and the full model.

Vibroacoustic Response of the NASA ACTS Spacecraft Antenna to Launch Acoustic Excitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larko, Jeffrey M.; Cotoni, Vincent

2008-01-01

The Advanced Communications Technology Satellite was an experimental NASA satellite launched from the Space Shuttle Discovery. As part of the ground test program, the satellite s large, parabolic reflector antennas were exposed to a reverberant acoustic loading to simulate the launch acoustics in the Shuttle payload bay. This paper describes the modelling and analysis of the dynamic response of these large, composite spacecraft antenna structure subjected to a diffuse acoustic field excitation. Due to the broad frequency range of the excitation, different models were created to make predictions in the various frequency regimes of interest: a statistical energy analysis (SEA) model to capture the high frequency response and a hybrid finite element-statistical energy (hybrid FE-SEA) model for the low to mid-frequency responses. The strengths and limitations of each of the analytical techniques are discussed. The predictions are then compared to the measured acoustic test data and to a boundary element (BEM) model to evaluate the performance of the hybrid techniques.

Managing distribution changes in time series prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matias, J. M.; Gonzalez-Manteiga, W.; Taboada, J.; Ordonez, C.

2006-07-01

When a problem is modeled statistically, a single distribution model is usually postulated that is assumed to be valid for the entire space. Nonetheless, this practice may be somewhat unrealistic in certain application areas, in which the conditions of the process that generates the data may change; as far as we are aware, however, no techniques have been developed to tackle this problem.This article proposes a technique for modeling and predicting this change in time series with a view to improving estimates and predictions. The technique is applied, among other models, to the hypernormal distribution recently proposed. When tested on real data from a range of stock market indices the technique produces better results that when a single distribution model is assumed to be valid for the entire period of time studied.Moreover, when a global model is postulated, it is highly recommended to select the hypernormal distribution parameter in the same likelihood maximization process.

Econ Simulation Cited as Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Workman, Robert; Maher, John

1973-01-01

A brief description of a computerized economics simulation model which provides students with an opportunity to apply microeconomic principles along with elementary accounting and statistical techniques.'' (Author/AK)

A simple white noise analysis of neuronal light responses.

PubMed

Chichilnisky, E J

2001-05-01

A white noise technique is presented for estimating the response properties of spiking visual system neurons. The technique is simple, robust, efficient and well suited to simultaneous recordings from multiple neurons. It provides a complete and easily interpretable model of light responses even for neurons that display a common form of response nonlinearity that precludes classical linear systems analysis. A theoretical justification of the technique is presented that relies only on elementary linear algebra and statistics. Implementation is described with examples. The technique and the underlying model of neural responses are validated using recordings from retinal ganglion cells, and in principle are applicable to other neurons. Advantages and disadvantages of the technique relative to classical approaches are discussed.

Incorporating principal component analysis into air quality model evaluation

EPA Science Inventory

The efficacy of standard air quality model evaluation techniques is becoming compromised as the simulation periods continue to lengthen in response to ever increasing computing capacity. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a statistical approach called Princi...

Implementing Restricted Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Structural Equation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheung, Mike W.-L.

2013-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is now a generic modeling framework for many multivariate techniques applied in the social and behavioral sciences. Many statistical models can be considered either as special cases of SEM or as part of the latent variable modeling framework. One popular extension is the use of SEM to conduct linear mixed-effects…

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH:USING ARM OBSERVATIONS & ADVANCED STATISTICAL TECHNIQUES TO EVALUATE CAM3 CLOUDS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STOCHASTIC CLOUD-RADIATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Somerville, Richard

2013-08-22

The long-range goal of several past and current projects in our DOE-supported research has been the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global models. The main objective of the present project being reported on here has been to develop and apply advanced statistical techniques, including Bayesian posterior estimates, to diagnose and evaluate features of both observed and simulated clouds. The research carried out under this project has been novel in two important ways. The first is that it is a key stepmore » in the development of practical stochastic cloud-radiation parameterizations, a new category of parameterizations that offers great promise for overcoming many shortcomings of conventional schemes. The second is that this work has brought powerful new tools to bear on the problem, because it has been a collaboration between a meteorologist with long experience in ARM research (Somerville) and a mathematician who is an expert on a class of advanced statistical techniques that are well-suited for diagnosing model cloud simulations using ARM observations (Shen).« less

Modeling Systematicity and Individuality in Nonlinear Second Language Development: The Case of English Grammatical Morphemes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murakami, Akira

2016-01-01

This article introduces two sophisticated statistical modeling techniques that allow researchers to analyze systematicity, individual variation, and nonlinearity in second language (L2) development. Generalized linear mixed-effects models can be used to quantify individual variation and examine systematic effects simultaneously, and generalized…

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iyer, Ravishankar, K.; Tang, Dong

1993-01-01

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance.

Randomly iterated search and statistical competency as powerful inversion tools for deformation source modeling: Application to volcano interferometric synthetic aperture radar data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirzaei, M.; Walter, T. R.

2009-10-01

Modern geodetic techniques provide valuable and near real-time observations of volcanic activity. Characterizing the source of deformation based on these observations has become of major importance in related monitoring efforts. We investigate two random search approaches, simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA), and utilize them in an iterated manner. The iterated approach helps to prevent GA in general and SA in particular from getting trapped in local minima, and it also increases redundancy for exploring the search space. We apply a statistical competency test for estimating the confidence interval of the inversion source parameters, considering their internal interaction through the model, the effect of the model deficiency, and the observational error. Here, we present and test this new randomly iterated search and statistical competency (RISC) optimization method together with GA and SA for the modeling of data associated with volcanic deformations. Following synthetic and sensitivity tests, we apply the improved inversion techniques to two episodes of activity in the Campi Flegrei volcanic region in Italy, observed by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar technique. Inversion of these data allows derivation of deformation source parameters and their associated quality so that we can compare the two inversion methods. The RISC approach was found to be an efficient method in terms of computation time and search results and may be applied to other optimization problems in volcanic and tectonic environments.

On the Use of Statistics in Design and the Implications for Deterministic Computer Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Timothy W.; Peplinski, Jesse; Koch, Patrick N.; Allen, Janet K.

1997-01-01

Perhaps the most prevalent use of statistics in engineering design is through Taguchi's parameter and robust design -- using orthogonal arrays to compute signal-to-noise ratios in a process of design improvement. In our view, however, there is an equally exciting use of statistics in design that could become just as prevalent: it is the concept of metamodeling whereby statistical models are built to approximate detailed computer analysis codes. Although computers continue to get faster, analysis codes always seem to keep pace so that their computational time remains non-trivial. Through metamodeling, approximations of these codes are built that are orders of magnitude cheaper to run. These metamodels can then be linked to optimization routines for fast analysis, or they can serve as a bridge for integrating analysis codes across different domains. In this paper we first review metamodeling techniques that encompass design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We discuss their existing applications in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of metamodeling techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.

Cleanroom certification model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Currit, P. A.

1983-01-01

The Cleanroom software development methodology is designed to take the gamble out of product releases for both suppliers and receivers of the software. The ingredients of this procedure are a life cycle of executable product increments, representative statistical testing, and a standard estimate of the MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) of the product at the time of its release. A statistical approach to software product testing using randomly selected samples of test cases is considered. A statistical model is defined for the certification process which uses the timing data recorded during test. A reasonableness argument for this model is provided that uses previously published data on software product execution. Also included is a derivation of the certification model estimators and a comparison of the proposed least squares technique with the more commonly used maximum likelihood estimators.

Treatment of control data in lunar phototriangulation. [application of statistical procedures and development of mathematical and computer techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, K. W.

1974-01-01

In lunar phototriangulation, there is a complete lack of accurate ground control points. The accuracy analysis of the results of lunar phototriangulation must, therefore, be completely dependent on statistical procedure. It was the objective of this investigation to examine the validity of the commonly used statistical procedures, and to develop both mathematical techniques and computer softwares for evaluating (1) the accuracy of lunar phototriangulation; (2) the contribution of the different types of photo support data on the accuracy of lunar phototriangulation; (3) accuracy of absolute orientation as a function of the accuracy and distribution of both the ground and model points; and (4) the relative slope accuracy between any triangulated pass points.

New insights into the endophenotypic status of cognition in bipolar disorder: genetic modelling study of twins and siblings.

PubMed

Georgiades, Anna; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Kane, Fergus; Rebollo-Mesa, Irene; Kalidindi, Sridevi; Schulze, Katja K; Stahl, Daniel; Walshe, Muriel; Sahakian, Barbara J; McDonald, Colm; Hall, Mei-Hua; Murray, Robin M; Kravariti, Eugenia

2016-06-01

Twin studies have lacked statistical power to apply advanced genetic modelling techniques to the search for cognitive endophenotypes for bipolar disorder. To quantify the shared genetic variability between bipolar disorder and cognitive measures. Structural equation modelling was performed on cognitive data collected from 331 twins/siblings of varying genetic relatedness, disease status and concordance for bipolar disorder. Using a parsimonious AE model, verbal episodic and spatial working memory showed statistically significant genetic correlations with bipolar disorder (rg = |0.23|-|0.27|), which lost statistical significance after covarying for affective symptoms. Using an ACE model, IQ and visual-spatial learning showed statistically significant genetic correlations with bipolar disorder (rg = |0.51|-|1.00|), which remained significant after covarying for affective symptoms. Verbal episodic and spatial working memory capture a modest fraction of the bipolar diathesis. IQ and visual-spatial learning may tap into genetic substrates of non-affective symptomatology in bipolar disorder. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2016.

A data compression technique for synthetic aperture radar images

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frost, V. S.; Minden, G. J.

1986-01-01

A data compression technique is developed for synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. The technique is based on an SAR image model and is designed to preserve the local statistics in the image by an adaptive variable rate modification of block truncation coding (BTC). A data rate of approximately 1.6 bit/pixel is achieved with the technique while maintaining the image quality and cultural (pointlike) targets. The algorithm requires no large data storage and is computationally simple.

Parameter discovery in stochastic biological models using simulated annealing and statistical model checking.

PubMed

Hussain, Faraz; Jha, Sumit K; Jha, Susmit; Langmead, Christopher J

2014-01-01

Stochastic models are increasingly used to study the behaviour of biochemical systems. While the structure of such models is often readily available from first principles, unknown quantitative features of the model are incorporated into the model as parameters. Algorithmic discovery of parameter values from experimentally observed facts remains a challenge for the computational systems biology community. We present a new parameter discovery algorithm that uses simulated annealing, sequential hypothesis testing, and statistical model checking to learn the parameters in a stochastic model. We apply our technique to a model of glucose and insulin metabolism used for in-silico validation of artificial pancreata and demonstrate its effectiveness by developing parallel CUDA-based implementation for parameter synthesis in this model.

The geostatistical approach for structural and stratigraphic framework analysis of offshore NW Bonaparte Basin, Australia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wahid, Ali, E-mail: ali.wahid@live.com; Salim, Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed, E-mail: mohamed.salim@petronas.com.my; Yusoff, Wan Ismail Wan, E-mail: wanismail-wanyusoff@petronas.com.my

2016-02-01

Geostatistics or statistical approach is based on the studies of temporal and spatial trend, which depend upon spatial relationships to model known information of variable(s) at unsampled locations. The statistical technique known as kriging was used for petrophycial and facies analysis, which help to assume spatial relationship to model the geological continuity between the known data and the unknown to produce a single best guess of the unknown. Kriging is also known as optimal interpolation technique, which facilitate to generate best linear unbiased estimation of each horizon. The idea is to construct a numerical model of the lithofacies and rockmore » properties that honor available data and further integrate with interpreting seismic sections, techtonostratigraphy chart with sea level curve (short term) and regional tectonics of the study area to find the structural and stratigraphic growth history of the NW Bonaparte Basin. By using kriging technique the models were built which help to estimate different parameters like horizons, facies, and porosities in the study area. The variograms were used to determine for identification of spatial relationship between data which help to find the depositional history of the North West (NW) Bonaparte Basin.« less

Modelling spruce bark beetle infestation probability

Treesearch

Paulius Zolubas; Jose Negron; A. Steven Munson

2009-01-01

Spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) risk model, based on pure Norway spruce (Picea abies Karst.) stand characteristics in experimental and control plots was developed using classification and regression tree statistical technique under endemic pest population density. The most significant variable in spruce bark beetle...

Electromagnetic Induction E-Sensor for Underwater UXO Detection

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-12-01

EMF Electromotive force FET Field Effect Transitor Hz Hertz ms millisecond nV nanoVolt QFS QUASAR Federal...processing. Statistical discrimination techniques based on model analysis, such as the Time-Domain Three Dipole (TD3D) model, can separate UXO-like objects

Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study.

PubMed

Walker, Martin; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Ouédraogo, André Lin; Hermsen, Cornelus; Bousema, Teun; Churcher, Thomas S

2015-01-16

Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens.

Meeting the needs of an ever-demanding market.

PubMed

Rigby, Richard

2002-04-01

Balancing cost and performance in packaging is critical. This article outlines techniques to assist in this whilst delivering added value and product differentiation. The techniques include a rigorous statistical process capable of delivering cost reduction and improved quality and a computer modelling process that can save time when validating new packaging options.

Multi-criterion model ensemble of CMIP5 surface air temperature over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Tiantian; Tao, Yumeng; Li, Jingjing; Zhu, Qian; Su, Lu; He, Xiaojia; Zhang, Xiaoming

2018-05-01

The global circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for simulating climate change, projecting future temperature changes, and therefore, supporting the preparation of national climate adaptation plans. However, different GCMs are not always in agreement with each other over various regions. The reason is that GCMs' configurations, module characteristics, and dynamic forcings vary from one to another. Model ensemble techniques are extensively used to post-process the outputs from GCMs and improve the variability of model outputs. Root-mean-square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (CC, or R) and uncertainty are commonly used statistics for evaluating the performances of GCMs. However, the simultaneous achievements of all satisfactory statistics cannot be guaranteed in using many model ensemble techniques. In this paper, we propose a multi-model ensemble framework, using a state-of-art evolutionary multi-objective optimization algorithm (termed MOSPD), to evaluate different characteristics of ensemble candidates and to provide comprehensive trade-off information for different model ensemble solutions. A case study of optimizing the surface air temperature (SAT) ensemble solutions over different geographical regions of China is carried out. The data covers from the period of 1900 to 2100, and the projections of SAT are analyzed with regard to three different statistical indices (i.e., RMSE, CC, and uncertainty). Among the derived ensemble solutions, the trade-off information is further analyzed with a robust Pareto front with respect to different statistics. The comparison results over historical period (1900-2005) show that the optimized solutions are superior over that obtained simple model average, as well as any single GCM output. The improvements of statistics are varying for different climatic regions over China. Future projection (2006-2100) with the proposed ensemble method identifies that the largest (smallest) temperature changes will happen in the South Central China (the Inner Mongolia), the North Eastern China (the South Central China), and the North Western China (the South Central China), under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Japanese migration in contemporary Japan: economic segmentation and interprefectural migration.

PubMed

Fukurai, H

1991-01-01

This paper examines the economic segmentation model in explaining 1985-86 Japanese interregional migration. The analysis takes advantage of statistical graphic techniques to illustrate the following substantive issues of interregional migration: (1) to examine whether economic segmentation significantly influences Japanese regional migration and (2) to explain socioeconomic characteristics of prefectures for both in- and out-migration. Analytic techniques include a latent structural equation (LISREL) methodology and statistical residual mapping. The residual dispersion patterns, for instance, suggest the extent to which socioeconomic and geopolitical variables explain migration differences by showing unique clusters of unexplained residuals. The analysis further points out that extraneous factors such as high residential land values, significant commuting populations, and regional-specific cultures and traditions need to be incorporated in the economic segmentation model in order to assess the extent of the model's reliability in explaining the pattern of interprefectural migration.

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, Max

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that our techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system load ing, resulting in fewer object migration than local methods. Our method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive methods.

Remote sensing estimation of the total phosphorus concentration in a large lake using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques.

PubMed

Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi

2015-03-15

Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, demonstrated advantages for estimating the TP concentration in a large lake and had a strong potential for universal application for the TP concentration estimation in large lake waters worldwide. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noninformative prior in the quantum statistical model of pure states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Fuyuhiko

2012-06-01

In the present paper, we consider a suitable definition of a noninformative prior on the quantum statistical model of pure states. While the full pure-states model is invariant under unitary rotation and admits the Haar measure, restricted models, which we often see in quantum channel estimation and quantum process tomography, have less symmetry and no compelling rationale for any choice. We adopt a game-theoretic approach that is applicable to classical Bayesian statistics and yields a noninformative prior for a general class of probability distributions. We define the quantum detection game and show that there exist noninformative priors for a general class of a pure-states model. Theoretically, it gives one of the ways that we represent ignorance on the given quantum system with partial information. Practically, our method proposes a default distribution on the model in order to use the Bayesian technique in the quantum-state tomography with a small sample.

Camera-Model Identification Using Markovian Transition Probability Matrix

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Guanshuo; Gao, Shang; Shi, Yun Qing; Hu, Ruimin; Su, Wei

Detecting the (brands and) models of digital cameras from given digital images has become a popular research topic in the field of digital forensics. As most of images are JPEG compressed before they are output from cameras, we propose to use an effective image statistical model to characterize the difference JPEG 2-D arrays of Y and Cb components from the JPEG images taken by various camera models. Specifically, the transition probability matrices derived from four different directional Markov processes applied to the image difference JPEG 2-D arrays are used to identify statistical difference caused by image formation pipelines inside different camera models. All elements of the transition probability matrices, after a thresholding technique, are directly used as features for classification purpose. Multi-class support vector machines (SVM) are used as the classification tool. The effectiveness of our proposed statistical model is demonstrated by large-scale experimental results.

Terminology, concepts, and models in genetic epidemiology.

PubMed

Teare, M Dawn; Koref, Mauro F Santibàñez

2011-01-01

Genetic epidemiology brings together approaches and techniques developed in mathematical genetics and statistics, medical genetics, quantitative genetics, and epidemiology. In the 1980s, the focus was on the mapping and identification of genes where defects had large effects at the individual level. More recently, statistical and experimental advances have made possible to identify and characterise genes associated with small effects at the individual level. In this chapter, we provide a brief outline of the models, concepts, and terminology used in genetic epidemiology.

Pattern-Based Inverse Modeling for Characterization of Subsurface Flow Models with Complex Geologic Heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golmohammadi, A.; Jafarpour, B.; M Khaninezhad, M. R.

2017-12-01

Calibration of heterogeneous subsurface flow models leads to ill-posed nonlinear inverse problems, where too many unknown parameters are estimated from limited response measurements. When the underlying parameters form complex (non-Gaussian) structured spatial connectivity patterns, classical variogram-based geostatistical techniques cannot describe the underlying connectivity patterns. Modern pattern-based geostatistical methods that incorporate higher-order spatial statistics are more suitable for describing such complex spatial patterns. Moreover, when the underlying unknown parameters are discrete (geologic facies distribution), conventional model calibration techniques that are designed for continuous parameters cannot be applied directly. In this paper, we introduce a novel pattern-based model calibration method to reconstruct discrete and spatially complex facies distributions from dynamic flow response data. To reproduce complex connectivity patterns during model calibration, we impose a feasibility constraint to ensure that the solution follows the expected higher-order spatial statistics. For model calibration, we adopt a regularized least-squares formulation, involving data mismatch, pattern connectivity, and feasibility constraint terms. Using an alternating directions optimization algorithm, the regularized objective function is divided into a continuous model calibration problem, followed by mapping the solution onto the feasible set. The feasibility constraint to honor the expected spatial statistics is implemented using a supervised machine learning algorithm. The two steps of the model calibration formulation are repeated until the convergence criterion is met. Several numerical examples are used to evaluate the performance of the developed method.

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Statistical Techniques to Explore the Quality of Constraints in Constraint-Based Modeling Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gálvez, Jaime; Conejo, Ricardo; Guzmán, Eduardo

2013-01-01

One of the most popular student modeling approaches is Constraint-Based Modeling (CBM). It is an efficient approach that can be easily applied inside an Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS). Even with these characteristics, building new ITSs requires carefully designing the domain model to be taught because different sources of errors could affect…

Variational Bayesian Parameter Estimation Techniques for the General Linear Model

PubMed Central

Starke, Ludger; Ostwald, Dirk

2017-01-01

Variational Bayes (VB), variational maximum likelihood (VML), restricted maximum likelihood (ReML), and maximum likelihood (ML) are cornerstone parametric statistical estimation techniques in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data. However, the theoretical underpinnings of these model parameter estimation techniques are rarely covered in introductory statistical texts. Because of the widespread practical use of VB, VML, ReML, and ML in the neuroimaging community, we reasoned that a theoretical treatment of their relationships and their application in a basic modeling scenario may be helpful for both neuroimaging novices and practitioners alike. In this technical study, we thus revisit the conceptual and formal underpinnings of VB, VML, ReML, and ML and provide a detailed account of their mathematical relationships and implementational details. We further apply VB, VML, ReML, and ML to the general linear model (GLM) with non-spherical error covariance as commonly encountered in the first-level analysis of fMRI data. To this end, we explicitly derive the corresponding free energy objective functions and ensuing iterative algorithms. Finally, in the applied part of our study, we evaluate the parameter and model recovery properties of VB, VML, ReML, and ML, first in an exemplary setting and then in the analysis of experimental fMRI data acquired from a single participant under visual stimulation. PMID:28966572

Prescriptive Statements and Educational Practice: What Can Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) Offer?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Andrew J.

2011-01-01

Longitudinal structural equation modeling (SEM) can be a basis for making prescriptive statements on educational practice and offers yields over "traditional" statistical techniques under the general linear model. The extent to which prescriptive statements can be made will rely on the appropriate accommodation of key elements of research design,…

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

SOME STATISTICAL ISSUES RELATED TO MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELING OF BEACH BACTERIA CONCENTRATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

As a fast and effective technique, the multiple linear regression (MLR) method has been widely used in modeling and prediction of beach bacteria concentrations. Among previous works on this subject, however, several issues were insufficiently or inconsistently addressed. Those is...

Newer classification and regression tree techniques: Bagging and Random Forests for ecological prediction

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Andy Liaw; Andy Liaw

2006-01-01

We evaluated four statistical models - Regression Tree Analysis (RTA), Bagging Trees (BT), Random Forests (RF), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) - for predictive vegetation mapping under current and future climate scenarios according to the Canadian Climate Centre global circulation model.

Analytic Methods for Adjusting Subjective Rating Schemes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Richard V. L.; Nelson, Gary R.

Statistical and econometric techniques of correcting for supervisor bias in models of individual performance appraisal were developed, using a variant of the classical linear regression model. Location bias occurs when individual performance is systematically overestimated or underestimated, while scale bias results when raters either exaggerate…

Trans-dimensional and hierarchical Bayesian approaches toward rigorous estimation of seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Seongryong; Tkalčić, Hrvoje; Mustać, Marija; Rhie, Junkee; Ford, Sean

2016-04-01

A framework is presented within which we provide rigorous estimations for seismic sources and structures in the Northeast Asia. We use Bayesian inversion methods, which enable statistical estimations of models and their uncertainties based on data information. Ambiguities in error statistics and model parameterizations are addressed by hierarchical and trans-dimensional (trans-D) techniques, which can be inherently implemented in the Bayesian inversions. Hence reliable estimation of model parameters and their uncertainties is possible, thus avoiding arbitrary regularizations and parameterizations. Hierarchical and trans-D inversions are performed to develop a three-dimensional velocity model using ambient noise data. To further improve the model, we perform joint inversions with receiver function data using a newly developed Bayesian method. For the source estimation, a novel moment tensor inversion method is presented and applied to regional waveform data of the North Korean nuclear explosion tests. By the combination of new Bayesian techniques and the structural model, coupled with meaningful uncertainties related to each of the processes, more quantitative monitoring and discrimination of seismic events is possible.

Statistical Inference of a RANS closure for a Jet-in-Crossflow simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyse, Jan; Edeling, Wouter; Iaccarino, Gianluca

2016-11-01

The jet-in-crossflow is found in several engineering applications, such as discrete film cooling for turbine blades, where a coolant injected through hols in the blade's surface protects the component from the hot gases leaving the combustion chamber. Experimental measurements using MRI techniques have been completed for a single hole injection into a turbulent crossflow, providing full 3D averaged velocity field. For such flows of engineering interest, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closure models are often the only viable computational option. However, RANS models are known to provide poor predictions in the region close to the injection point. Since these models are calibrated on simple canonical flow problems, the obtained closure coefficient estimates are unlikely to extrapolate well to more complex flows. We will therefore calibrate the parameters of a RANS model using statistical inference techniques informed by the experimental jet-in-crossflow data. The obtained probabilistic parameter estimates can in turn be used to compute flow fields with quantified uncertainty. Stanford Graduate Fellowship in Science and Engineering.

Comparative interpretations of renormalization inversion technique for reconstructing unknown emissions from measured atmospheric concentrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Sarvesh Kumar; Kumar, Pramod; Rani, Raj; Turbelin, Grégory

2017-04-01

The study highlights a theoretical comparison and various interpretations of a recent inversion technique, called renormalization, developed for the reconstruction of unknown tracer emissions from their measured concentrations. The comparative interpretations are presented in relation to the other inversion techniques based on principle of regularization, Bayesian, minimum norm, maximum entropy on mean, and model resolution optimization. It is shown that the renormalization technique can be interpreted in a similar manner to other techniques, with a practical choice of a priori information and error statistics, while eliminating the need of additional constraints. The study shows that the proposed weight matrix and weighted Gram matrix offer a suitable deterministic choice to the background error and measurement covariance matrices, respectively, in the absence of statistical knowledge about background and measurement errors. The technique is advantageous since it (i) utilizes weights representing a priori information apparent to the monitoring network, (ii) avoids dependence on background source estimates, (iii) improves on alternative choices for the error statistics, (iv) overcomes the colocalization problem in a natural manner, and (v) provides an optimally resolved source reconstruction. A comparative illustration of source retrieval is made by using the real measurements from a continuous point release conducted in Fusion Field Trials, Dugway Proving Ground, Utah.

Predicting survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in dry fermented sausage using artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Palanichamy, A; Jayas, D S; Holley, R A

2008-01-01

The Canadian Food Inspection Agency required the meat industry to ensure Escherichia coli O157:H7 does not survive (experiences > or = 5 log CFU/g reduction) in dry fermented sausage (salami) during processing after a series of foodborne illness outbreaks resulting from this pathogenic bacterium occurred. The industry is in need of an effective technique like predictive modeling for estimating bacterial viability, because traditional microbiological enumeration is a time-consuming and laborious method. The accuracy and speed of artificial neural networks (ANNs) for this purpose is an attractive alternative (developed from predictive microbiology), especially for on-line processing in industry. Data from a study of interactive effects of different levels of pH, water activity, and the concentrations of allyl isothiocyanate at various times during sausage manufacture in reducing numbers of E. coli O157:H7 were collected. Data were used to develop predictive models using a general regression neural network (GRNN), a form of ANN, and a statistical linear polynomial regression technique. Both models were compared for their predictive error, using various statistical indices. GRNN predictions for training and test data sets had less serious errors when compared with the statistical model predictions. GRNN models were better and slightly better for training and test sets, respectively, than was the statistical model. Also, GRNN accurately predicted the level of allyl isothiocyanate required, ensuring a 5-log reduction, when an appropriate production set was created by interpolation. Because they are simple to generate, fast, and accurate, ANN models may be of value for industrial use in dry fermented sausage manufacture to reduce the hazard associated with E. coli O157:H7 in fresh beef and permit production of consistently safe products from this raw material.

Model Robust Calibration: Method and Application to Electronically-Scanned Pressure Transducers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, Eric L.; Starnes, B. Alden; Birch, Jeffery B.; Mays, James E.

2010-01-01

This article presents the application of a recently developed statistical regression method to the controlled instrument calibration problem. The statistical method of Model Robust Regression (MRR), developed by Mays, Birch, and Starnes, is shown to improve instrument calibration by reducing the reliance of the calibration on a predetermined parametric (e.g. polynomial, exponential, logarithmic) model. This is accomplished by allowing fits from the predetermined parametric model to be augmented by a certain portion of a fit to the residuals from the initial regression using a nonparametric (locally parametric) regression technique. The method is demonstrated for the absolute scale calibration of silicon-based pressure transducers.

The Problem of Auto-Correlation in Parasitology

PubMed Central

Pollitt, Laura C.; Reece, Sarah E.; Mideo, Nicole; Nussey, Daniel H.; Colegrave, Nick

2012-01-01

Explaining the contribution of host and pathogen factors in driving infection dynamics is a major ambition in parasitology. There is increasing recognition that analyses based on single summary measures of an infection (e.g., peak parasitaemia) do not adequately capture infection dynamics and so, the appropriate use of statistical techniques to analyse dynamics is necessary to understand infections and, ultimately, control parasites. However, the complexities of within-host environments mean that tracking and analysing pathogen dynamics within infections and among hosts poses considerable statistical challenges. Simple statistical models make assumptions that will rarely be satisfied in data collected on host and parasite parameters. In particular, model residuals (unexplained variance in the data) should not be correlated in time or space. Here we demonstrate how failure to account for such correlations can result in incorrect biological inference from statistical analysis. We then show how mixed effects models can be used as a powerful tool to analyse such repeated measures data in the hope that this will encourage better statistical practices in parasitology. PMID:22511865

Improving medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts through statistical post-processing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Pablo; Wood, Andy; Clark, Elizabeth; Nijssen, Bart; Clark, Martyn; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a powerful source of information for decision-making in water resources operations. A common approach is the hydrologic model-based generation of streamflow forecast ensembles, which can be implemented to account for different sources of uncertainties - e.g., from initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), weather forecasts, and hydrologic model structure and parameters. In practice, hydrologic ensemble forecasts typically have biases and spread errors stemming from errors in the aforementioned elements, resulting in a degradation of probabilistic properties. In this work, we compare several statistical post-processing techniques applied to medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained with the System for Hydromet Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP). SHARP is a fully automated prediction system for the assessment and demonstration of short-term to seasonal streamflow forecasting applications, developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The suite of post-processing techniques includes linear blending, quantile mapping, extended logistic regression, quantile regression, ensemble analogs, and the generalized linear model post-processor (GLMPP). We assess and compare these techniques using multi-year hindcasts in several river basins in the western US. This presentation discusses preliminary findings about the effectiveness of the techniques for improving probabilistic skill, reliability, discrimination, sharpness and resolution.

Evaluating sufficient similarity for drinking-water disinfection by-product (DBP) mixtures with bootstrap hypothesis test procedures.

PubMed

Feder, Paul I; Ma, Zhenxu J; Bull, Richard J; Teuschler, Linda K; Rice, Glenn

2009-01-01

In chemical mixtures risk assessment, the use of dose-response data developed for one mixture to estimate risk posed by a second mixture depends on whether the two mixtures are sufficiently similar. While evaluations of similarity may be made using qualitative judgments, this article uses nonparametric statistical methods based on the "bootstrap" resampling technique to address the question of similarity among mixtures of chemical disinfectant by-products (DBP) in drinking water. The bootstrap resampling technique is a general-purpose, computer-intensive approach to statistical inference that substitutes empirical sampling for theoretically based parametric mathematical modeling. Nonparametric, bootstrap-based inference involves fewer assumptions than parametric normal theory based inference. The bootstrap procedure is appropriate, at least in an asymptotic sense, whether or not the parametric, distributional assumptions hold, even approximately. The statistical analysis procedures in this article are initially illustrated with data from 5 water treatment plants (Schenck et al., 2009), and then extended using data developed from a study of 35 drinking-water utilities (U.S. EPA/AMWA, 1989), which permits inclusion of a greater number of water constituents and increased structure in the statistical models.

Power Enhancement in High Dimensional Cross-Sectional Tests

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Liao, Yuan; Yao, Jiawei

2016-01-01

We propose a novel technique to boost the power of testing a high-dimensional vector H : θ = 0 against sparse alternatives where the null hypothesis is violated only by a couple of components. Existing tests based on quadratic forms such as the Wald statistic often suffer from low powers due to the accumulation of errors in estimating high-dimensional parameters. More powerful tests for sparse alternatives such as thresholding and extreme-value tests, on the other hand, require either stringent conditions or bootstrap to derive the null distribution and often suffer from size distortions due to the slow convergence. Based on a screening technique, we introduce a “power enhancement component”, which is zero under the null hypothesis with high probability, but diverges quickly under sparse alternatives. The proposed test statistic combines the power enhancement component with an asymptotically pivotal statistic, and strengthens the power under sparse alternatives. The null distribution does not require stringent regularity conditions, and is completely determined by that of the pivotal statistic. As specific applications, the proposed methods are applied to testing the factor pricing models and validating the cross-sectional independence in panel data models. PMID:26778846

Simple statistical bias correction techniques greatly improve moderate resolution air quality forecast at station level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curci, Gabriele; Falasca, Serena

2017-04-01

Deterministic air quality forecast is routinely carried out at many local Environmental Agencies in Europe and throughout the world by means of eulerian chemistry-transport models. The skill of these models in predicting the ground-level concentrations of relevant pollutants (ozone, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter) a few days ahead has greatly improved in recent years, but it is not yet always compliant with the required quality level for decision making (e.g. the European Commission has set a maximum uncertainty of 50% on daily values of relevant pollutants). Post-processing of deterministic model output is thus still regarded as a useful tool to make the forecast more reliable. In this work, we test several bias correction techniques applied to a long-term dataset of air quality forecasts over Europe and Italy. We used the WRF-CHIMERE modelling system, which provides operational experimental chemical weather forecast at CETEMPS (http://pumpkin.aquila.infn.it/forechem/), to simulate the years 2008-2012 at low resolution over Europe (0.5° x 0.5°) and moderate resolution over Italy (0.15° x 0.15°). We compared the simulated dataset with available observation from the European Environmental Agency database (AirBase) and characterized model skill and compliance with EU legislation using the Delta tool from FAIRMODE project (http://fairmode.jrc.ec.europa.eu/). The bias correction techniques adopted are, in order of complexity: (1) application of multiplicative factors calculated as the ratio of model-to-observed concentrations averaged over the previous days; (2) correction of the statistical distribution of model forecasts, in order to make it similar to that of the observations; (3) development and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS) regression equations. We illustrate differences and advantages/disadvantages of the three approaches. All the methods are relatively easy to implement for other modelling systems.

Applications of spatial statistical network models to stream data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Isaak, Daniel J.; Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Wenger, Seth J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Sowder, Colin; Steel, E. Ashley; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordan, Chris E.; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Som, Nicholas; Monestiez, Pascal

2014-01-01

Streams and rivers host a significant portion of Earth's biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services for human populations. Accurate information regarding the status and trends of stream resources is vital for their effective conservation and management. Most statistical techniques applied to data measured on stream networks were developed for terrestrial applications and are not optimized for streams. A new class of spatial statistical model, based on valid covariance structures for stream networks, can be used with many common types of stream data (e.g., water quality attributes, habitat conditions, biological surveys) through application of appropriate distributions (e.g., Gaussian, binomial, Poisson). The spatial statistical network models account for spatial autocorrelation (i.e., nonindependence) among measurements, which allows their application to databases with clustered measurement locations. Large amounts of stream data exist in many areas where spatial statistical analyses could be used to develop novel insights, improve predictions at unsampled sites, and aid in the design of efficient monitoring strategies at relatively low cost. We review the topic of spatial autocorrelation and its effects on statistical inference, demonstrate the use of spatial statistics with stream datasets relevant to common research and management questions, and discuss additional applications and development potential for spatial statistics on stream networks. Free software for implementing the spatial statistical network models has been developed that enables custom applications with many stream databases.

Simulation and assimilation of satellite altimeter data at the oceanic mesoscale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demay, P.; Robinson, A. R.

1984-01-01

An improved "objective analysis' technique is used along with an altimeter signal statistical model, an altimeter noise statistical model, an orbital model, and synoptic surface current maps in the POLYMODE-SDE area, to evaluate the performance of various observational strategies in catching the mesoscale variability at mid-latitudes. In particular, simulated repetitive nominal orbits of ERS-1, TOPEX, and SPOT/POSEIDON are examined. Results show the critical importance of existence of a subcycle, scanning in either direction. Moreover, long repeat cycles ( 20 days) and short cross-track distances ( 300 km) seem preferable, since they match mesoscale statistics. Another goal of the study is to prepare and discuss sea-surface height (SSH) assimilation in quasigeostrophic models. Restored SSH maps are shown to meet that purpose, if an efficient extrapolation method or deep in-situ data (floats) are used on the vertical to start and update the model.

Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

1985-01-01

Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

Artificial neural network study on organ-targeting peptides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Eunkyoung; Kim, Junhyoung; Choi, Seung-Hoon; Kim, Minkyoung; Rhee, Hokyoung; Shin, Jae-Min; Choi, Kihang; Kang, Sang-Kee; Lee, Nam Kyung; Choi, Yun-Jaie; Jung, Dong Hyun

2010-01-01

We report a new approach to studying organ targeting of peptides on the basis of peptide sequence information. The positive control data sets consist of organ-targeting peptide sequences identified by the peroral phage-display technique for four organs, and the negative control data are prepared from random sequences. The capacity of our models to make appropriate predictions is validated by statistical indicators including sensitivity, specificity, enrichment curve, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (the ROC score). VHSE descriptor produces statistically significant training models and the models with simple neural network architectures show slightly greater predictive power than those with complex ones. The training and test set statistics indicate that our models could discriminate between organ-targeting and random sequences. We anticipate that our models will be applicable to the selection of organ-targeting peptides for generating peptide drugs or peptidomimetics.

Incorporating signal-dependent noise for hyperspectral target detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morman, Christopher J.; Meola, Joseph

2015-05-01

The majority of hyperspectral target detection algorithms are developed from statistical data models employing stationary background statistics or white Gaussian noise models. Stationary background models are inaccurate as a result of two separate physical processes. First, varying background classes often exist in the imagery that possess different clutter statistics. Many algorithms can account for this variability through the use of subspaces or clustering techniques. The second physical process, which is often ignored, is a signal-dependent sensor noise term. For photon counting sensors that are often used in hyperspectral imaging systems, sensor noise increases as the measured signal level increases as a result of Poisson random processes. This work investigates the impact of this sensor noise on target detection performance. A linear noise model is developed describing sensor noise variance as a linear function of signal level. The linear noise model is then incorporated for detection of targets using data collected at Wright Patterson Air Force Base.

Learning Compositional Simulation Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

techniques developed by social scientists, economists, and medical researchers over the past four decades. Quasi-experimental designs (QEDs) are...statistical techniques from the social sciences known as quasi- experimental design (QED). QEDs allow a researcher to exploit unique characteristics...can be grouped under the rubric “quasi-experimental design ” (QED), and they attempt to exploit inherent characteristics of observational data sets

TOMS and SBUV Data: Comparison to 3D Chemical-Transport Model Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Steenrod, Steve; Frith, Stacey

2003-01-01

We have updated our merged ozone data (MOD) set using the TOMS data from the new version 8 algorithm. We then analyzed these data for contributions from solar cycle, volcanoes, QBO, and halogens using a standard statistical time series model. We have recently completed a hindcast run of our 3D chemical-transport model for the same years. This model uses off-line winds from the finite-volume GCM, a full stratospheric photochemistry package, and time-varying forcing due to halogens, solar uv, and volcanic aerosols. We will report on a parallel analysis of these model results using the same statistical time series technique as used for the MOD data.

Statistical methods for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matthews, M.V.; Reasenberg, P.A.

1988-01-01

We propose a statistical model and a technique for objective recognition of one of the most commonly cited seismicity patterns:microearthquake quiescence. We use a Poisson process model for seismicity and define a process with quiescence as one with a particular type of piece-wise constant intensity function. From this model, we derive a statistic for testing stationarity against a 'quiescence' alternative. The large-sample null distribution of this statistic is approximated from simulated distributions of appropriate functionals applied to Brownian bridge processes. We point out the restrictiveness of the particular model we propose and of the quiescence idea in general. The fact that there are many point processes which have neither constant nor quiescent rate functions underscores the need to test for and describe nonuniformity thoroughly. We advocate the use of the quiescence test in conjunction with various other tests for nonuniformity and with graphical methods such as density estimation. ideally these methods may promote accurate description of temporal seismicity distributions and useful characterizations of interesting patterns. ?? 1988 Birkha??user Verlag.

The Consolidation/Transition Model in Moral Reasoning Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker, Lawrence J.; Gustafson, Paul; Hennig, Karl H.

2001-01-01

This longitudinal study with 62 children and adolescents examined the validity of the consolidation/transition model in the context of moral reasoning development. Results of standard statistical and Bayesian techniques supported the hypotheses regarding cyclical patterns of change and predictors of stage transition, and demonstrated the utility…

Non-targeted 1H NMR fingerprinting and multivariate statistical analyses for the characterisation of the geographical origin of Italian sweet cherries.

PubMed

Longobardi, F; Ventrella, A; Bianco, A; Catucci, L; Cafagna, I; Gallo, V; Mastrorilli, P; Agostiano, A

2013-12-01

In this study, non-targeted (1)H NMR fingerprinting was used in combination with multivariate statistical techniques for the classification of Italian sweet cherries based on their different geographical origins (Emilia Romagna and Puglia). As classification techniques, Soft Independent Modelling of Class Analogy (SIMCA), Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) were carried out and the results were compared. For LDA, before performing a refined selection of the number/combination of variables, two different strategies for a preliminary reduction of the variable number were tested. The best average recognition and CV prediction abilities (both 100.0%) were obtained for all the LDA models, although PLS-DA also showed remarkable performances (94.6%). All the statistical models were validated by observing the prediction abilities with respect to an external set of cherry samples. The best result (94.9%) was obtained with LDA by performing a best subset selection procedure on a set of 30 principal components previously selected by a stepwise decorrelation. The metabolites that mostly contributed to the classification performances of such LDA model, were found to be malate, glucose, fructose, glutamine and succinate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of non-stationary precipitation series for site-specific impact assessment: comparison of two statistical downscaling techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullan, Donal; Chen, Jie; Zhang, Xunchang John

2016-02-01

Statistical downscaling (SD) methods have become a popular, low-cost and accessible means of bridging the gap between the coarse spatial resolution at which climate models output climate scenarios and the finer spatial scale at which impact modellers require these scenarios, with various different SD techniques used for a wide range of applications across the world. This paper compares the Generator for Point Climate Change (GPCC) model and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)—two contrasting SD methods—in terms of their ability to generate precipitation series under non-stationary conditions across ten contrasting global climates. The mean, maximum and a selection of distribution statistics as well as the cumulative frequencies of dry and wet spells for four different temporal resolutions were compared between the models and the observed series for a validation period. Results indicate that both methods can generate daily precipitation series that generally closely mirror observed series for a wide range of non-stationary climates. However, GPCC tends to overestimate higher precipitation amounts, whilst SDSM tends to underestimate these. This infers that GPCC is more likely to overestimate the effects of precipitation on a given impact sector, whilst SDSM is likely to underestimate the effects. GPCC performs better than SDSM in reproducing wet and dry day frequency, which is a key advantage for many impact sectors. Overall, the mixed performance of the two methods illustrates the importance of users performing a thorough validation in order to determine the influence of simulated precipitation on their chosen impact sector.

Investigation of Error Patterns in Geographical Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryer, David; Jacobs, Derya A.; Karayaz, Gamze; Gronbech, Chris; Jones, Denise R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The objective of the research conducted in this project is to develop a methodology to investigate the accuracy of Airport Safety Modeling Data (ASMD) using statistical, visualization, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques. Such a methodology can contribute to answering the following research questions: Over a representative sampling of ASMD databases, can statistical error analysis techniques be accurately learned and replicated by ANN modeling techniques? This representative ASMD sample should include numerous airports and a variety of terrain characterizations. Is it possible to identify and automate the recognition of patterns of error related to geographical features? Do such patterns of error relate to specific geographical features, such as elevation or terrain slope? Is it possible to combine the errors in small regions into an error prediction for a larger region? What are the data density reduction implications of this work? ASMD may be used as the source of terrain data for a synthetic visual system to be used in the cockpit of aircraft when visual reference to ground features is not possible during conditions of marginal weather or reduced visibility. In this research, United States Geologic Survey (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) data has been selected as the benchmark. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS) have been used and tested as alternate methods in place of the statistical methods in similar problems. They often perform better in pattern recognition, prediction and classification and categorization problems. Many studies show that when the data is complex and noisy, the accuracy of ANN models is generally higher than those of comparable traditional methods.

Large ensemble modeling of last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: comparison of simple and advanced statistical techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollard, D.; Chang, W.; Haran, M.; Applegate, P.; DeConto, R.

2015-11-01

A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ~ 20 000 years. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation-age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model-data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree quite well with the more advanced techniques, but only for a large ensemble with full factorial parameter sampling. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds. Each run is extended 5000 years into the "future" with idealized ramped climate warming. In the majority of runs with reasonable scores, this produces grounding-line retreat deep into the West Antarctic interior, and the analysis provides sea-level-rise envelopes with well defined parametric uncertainty bounds.

Multi-level methods and approximating distribution functions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, D., E-mail: daniel.wilson@dtc.ox.ac.uk; Baker, R. E.

2016-07-15

Biochemical reaction networks are often modelled using discrete-state, continuous-time Markov chains. System statistics of these Markov chains usually cannot be calculated analytically and therefore estimates must be generated via simulation techniques. There is a well documented class of simulation techniques known as exact stochastic simulation algorithms, an example of which is Gillespie’s direct method. These algorithms often come with high computational costs, therefore approximate stochastic simulation algorithms such as the tau-leap method are used. However, in order to minimise the bias in the estimates generated using them, a relatively small value of tau is needed, rendering the computational costs comparablemore » to Gillespie’s direct method. The multi-level Monte Carlo method (Anderson and Higham, Multiscale Model. Simul. 10:146–179, 2012) provides a reduction in computational costs whilst minimising or even eliminating the bias in the estimates of system statistics. This is achieved by first crudely approximating required statistics with many sample paths of low accuracy. Then correction terms are added until a required level of accuracy is reached. Recent literature has primarily focussed on implementing the multi-level method efficiently to estimate a single system statistic. However, it is clearly also of interest to be able to approximate entire probability distributions of species counts. We present two novel methods that combine known techniques for distribution reconstruction with the multi-level method. We demonstrate the potential of our methods using a number of examples.« less

Machine learning modelling for predicting soil liquefaction susceptibility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samui, P.; Sitharam, T. G.

2011-01-01

This study describes two machine learning techniques applied to predict liquefaction susceptibility of soil based on the standard penetration test (SPT) data from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The first machine learning technique which uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on multi-layer perceptions (MLP) that are trained with Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm. The second machine learning technique uses the Support Vector machine (SVM) that is firmly based on the theory of statistical learning theory, uses classification technique. ANN and SVM have been developed to predict liquefaction susceptibility using corrected SPT [(N1)60] and cyclic stress ratio (CSR). Further, an attempt has been made to simplify the models, requiring only the two parameters [(N1)60 and peck ground acceleration (amax/g)], for the prediction of liquefaction susceptibility. The developed ANN and SVM models have also been applied to different case histories available globally. The paper also highlights the capability of the SVM over the ANN models.

Evaluating the sources of water to wells: Three techniques for metamodeling of a groundwater flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fienen, Michael N.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Feinstein, Daniel T.

2016-01-01

For decision support, the insights and predictive power of numerical process models can be hampered by insufficient expertise and computational resources required to evaluate system response to new stresses. An alternative is to emulate the process model with a statistical “metamodel.” Built on a dataset of collocated numerical model input and output, a groundwater flow model was emulated using a Bayesian Network, an Artificial neural network, and a Gradient Boosted Regression Tree. The response of interest was surface water depletion expressed as the source of water-to-wells. The results have application for managing allocation of groundwater. Each technique was tuned using cross validation and further evaluated using a held-out dataset. A numerical MODFLOW-USG model of the Lake Michigan Basin, USA, was used for the evaluation. The performance and interpretability of each technique was compared pointing to advantages of each technique. The metamodel can extend to unmodeled areas.

A New Femtosecond Laser-Based Three-Dimensional Tomography Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Echlin, McLean P.

2011-12-01

Tomographic imaging has dramatically changed science, most notably in the fields of medicine and biology, by producing 3D views of structures which are too complex to understand in any other way. Current tomographic techniques require extensive time both for post-processing and data collection. Femtosecond laser based tomographic techniques have been developed in both standard atmosphere (femtosecond laser-based serial sectioning technique - FSLSS) and in vacuum (Tri-Beam System) for the fast collection (10 5mum3/s) of mm3 sized 3D datasets. Both techniques use femtosecond laser pulses to selectively remove layer-by-layer areas of material with low collateral damage and a negligible heat affected zone. To the authors knowledge, femtosecond lasers have never been used to serial section and these techniques have been entirely and uniquely developed by the author and his collaborators at the University of Michigan and University of California Santa Barbara. The FSLSS was applied to measure the 3D distribution of TiN particles in a 4330 steel. Single pulse ablation morphologies and rates were measured and collected from literature. Simultaneous two-phase ablation of TiN and steel matrix was shown to occur at fluences of 0.9-2 J/cm2. Laser scanning protocols were developed minimizing surface roughness to 0.1-0.4 mum for laser-based sectioning. The FSLSS technique was used to section and 3D reconstruct titanium nitride (TiN) containing 4330 steel. Statistical analysis of 3D TiN particle sizes, distribution parameters, and particle density were measured. A methodology was developed to use the 3D datasets to produce statistical volume elements (SVEs) for toughness modeling. Six FSLSS TiN datasets were sub-sampled into 48 SVEs for statistical analysis and toughness modeling using the Rice-Tracey and Garrison-Moody models. A two-parameter Weibull analysis was performed and variability in the toughness data agreed well with Ruggieri et al. bulk toughness measurements. The Tri-Beam system combines the benefits of laser based material removal (speed, low-damage, automated) with detectors that collect chemical, structural, and topological information. Multi-modal sectioning information was collected after many laser scanning passes demonstrating the capability of the Tri-Beam system.

Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane

2017-04-01

Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO-LEPS ensemble forecasts. Deterministic verification scores (e.g., mean absolute error, bias) and probabilistic scores (e.g., CRPS) are used to evaluate the post-processing techniques. We conclude that the new adaptive method outperforms the simpler running bias-correction. The proposed adaptive method often outperforms the MBM method in removing bias. The MBM method has the advantage of correcting the ensemble spread, although it needs more training data.

Hybrid Evidence Theory-based Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis method for mid-frequency analysis of built-up systems with epistemic uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Shengwen; Yu, Dejie; Yin, Hui; Lü, Hui; Xia, Baizhan

2017-09-01

Considering the epistemic uncertainties within the hybrid Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (FE/SEA) model when it is used for the response analysis of built-up systems in the mid-frequency range, the hybrid Evidence Theory-based Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (ETFE/SEA) model is established by introducing the evidence theory. Based on the hybrid ETFE/SEA model and the sub-interval perturbation technique, the hybrid Sub-interval Perturbation and Evidence Theory-based Finite Element/Statistical Energy Analysis (SIP-ETFE/SEA) approach is proposed. In the hybrid ETFE/SEA model, the uncertainty in the SEA subsystem is modeled by a non-parametric ensemble, while the uncertainty in the FE subsystem is described by the focal element and basic probability assignment (BPA), and dealt with evidence theory. Within the hybrid SIP-ETFE/SEA approach, the mid-frequency response of interest, such as the ensemble average of the energy response and the cross-spectrum response, is calculated analytically by using the conventional hybrid FE/SEA method. Inspired by the probability theory, the intervals of the mean value, variance and cumulative distribution are used to describe the distribution characteristics of mid-frequency responses of built-up systems with epistemic uncertainties. In order to alleviate the computational burdens for the extreme value analysis, the sub-interval perturbation technique based on the first-order Taylor series expansion is used in ETFE/SEA model to acquire the lower and upper bounds of the mid-frequency responses over each focal element. Three numerical examples are given to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Modeling Ka-band low elevation angle propagation statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Russell, Thomas A.; Weinfield, John; Pearson, Chris; Ippolito, Louis J.

1995-01-01

The statistical variability of the secondary atmospheric propagation effects on satellite communications cannot be ignored at frequencies of 20 GHz or higher, particularly if the propagation margin allocation is such that link availability falls below 99 percent. The secondary effects considered in this paper are gaseous absorption, cloud absorption, and tropospheric scintillation; rain attenuation is the primary effect. Techniques and example results are presented for estimation of the overall combined impact of the atmosphere on satellite communications reliability. Statistical methods are employed throughout and the most widely accepted models for the individual effects are used wherever possible. The degree of correlation between the effects is addressed and some bounds on the expected variability in the combined effects statistics are derived from the expected variability in correlation. Example estimates are presented of combined effects statistics in the Washington D.C. area of 20 GHz and 5 deg elevation angle. The statistics of water vapor are shown to be sufficient for estimation of the statistics of gaseous absorption at 20 GHz. A computer model based on monthly surface weather is described and tested. Significant improvement in prediction of absorption extremes is demonstrated with the use of path weather data instead of surface data.

Assessing the sensitivity and robustness of prediction models for apple firmness using spectral scattering technique

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Spectral scattering is useful for nondestructive sensing of fruit firmness. Prediction models, however, are typically built using multivariate statistical methods such as partial least squares regression (PLSR), whose performance generally depends on the characteristics of the data. The aim of this ...

How to Use Value-Added Measures Right

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Di Carlo, Matthew

2012-01-01

Value-added models are a specific type of "growth model," a diverse group of statistical techniques to isolate a teacher's impact on his or her students' testing progress while controlling for other measurable factors, such as student and school characteristics, that are outside that teacher's control. Opponents, including many teachers, argue…

Counteracting structural errors in ensemble forecast of influenza outbreaks.

PubMed

Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-10-13

For influenza forecasts generated using dynamical models, forecast inaccuracy is partly attributable to the nonlinear growth of error. As a consequence, quantification of the nonlinear error structure in current forecast models is needed so that this growth can be corrected and forecast skill improved. Here, we inspect the error growth of a compartmental influenza model and find that a robust error structure arises naturally from the nonlinear model dynamics. By counteracting these structural errors, diagnosed using error breeding, we develop a new forecast approach that combines dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques. In retrospective forecasts of historical influenza outbreaks for 95 US cities from 2003 to 2014, overall forecast accuracy for outbreak peak timing, peak intensity and attack rate, are substantially improved for predicted lead times up to 10 weeks. This error growth correction method can be generalized to improve the forecast accuracy of other infectious disease dynamical models.Inaccuracy of influenza forecasts based on dynamical models is partly due to nonlinear error growth. Here the authors address the error structure of a compartmental influenza model, and develop a new improved forecast approach combining dynamical error correction and statistical filtering techniques.

The Importance of Practice in the Development of Statistics.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OIF STANDARDS 1963 -A NRC Technical Summary Report #2471 C THE IMORTANCE OF PRACTICE IN to THE DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICS...component analysis, bioassay, limits for a ratio, quality control, sampling inspection, non-parametric tests , transformation theory, ARIMA time series...models, sequential tests , cumulative sum charts, data analysis plotting techniques, and a resolution of the Bayes - frequentist controversy. It appears

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities

PubMed Central

Kwan, Paul; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus. An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops. PMID:28875085

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities.

PubMed

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; R Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus . An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.

Artificial neural networks in gynaecological diseases: current and potential future applications.

PubMed

Siristatidis, Charalampos S; Chrelias, Charalampos; Pouliakis, Abraham; Katsimanis, Evangelos; Kassanos, Dimitrios

2010-10-01

Current (and probably future) practice of medicine is mostly associated with prediction and accurate diagnosis. Especially in clinical practice, there is an increasing interest in constructing and using valid models of diagnosis and prediction. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are mathematical systems being used as a prospective tool for reliable, flexible and quick assessment. They demonstrate high power in evaluating multifactorial data, assimilating information from multiple sources and detecting subtle and complex patterns. Their capability and difference from other statistical techniques lies in performing nonlinear statistical modelling. They represent a new alternative to logistic regression, which is the most commonly used method for developing predictive models for outcomes resulting from partitioning in medicine. In combination with the other non-algorithmic artificial intelligence techniques, they provide useful software engineering tools for the development of systems in quantitative medicine. Our paper first presents a brief introduction to ANNs, then, using what we consider the best available evidence through paradigms, we evaluate the ability of these networks to serve as first-line detection and prediction techniques in some of the most crucial fields in gynaecology. Finally, through the analysis of their current application, we explore their dynamics for future use.

Regression modeling of ground-water flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, R.L.; Naff, R.L.

1985-01-01

Nonlinear multiple regression methods are developed to model and analyze groundwater flow systems. Complete descriptions of regression methodology as applied to groundwater flow models allow scientists and engineers engaged in flow modeling to apply the methods to a wide range of problems. Organization of the text proceeds from an introduction that discusses the general topic of groundwater flow modeling, to a review of basic statistics necessary to properly apply regression techniques, and then to the main topic: exposition and use of linear and nonlinear regression to model groundwater flow. Statistical procedures are given to analyze and use the regression models. A number of exercises and answers are included to exercise the student on nearly all the methods that are presented for modeling and statistical analysis. Three computer programs implement the more complex methods. These three are a general two-dimensional, steady-state regression model for flow in an anisotropic, heterogeneous porous medium, a program to calculate a measure of model nonlinearity with respect to the regression parameters, and a program to analyze model errors in computed dependent variables such as hydraulic head. (USGS)

Statistical shape model-based reconstruction of a scaled, patient-specific surface model of the pelvis from a single standard AP x-ray radiograph

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng Guoyan

2010-04-15

Purpose: The aim of this article is to investigate the feasibility of using a statistical shape model (SSM)-based reconstruction technique to derive a scaled, patient-specific surface model of the pelvis from a single standard anteroposterior (AP) x-ray radiograph and the feasibility of estimating the scale of the reconstructed surface model by performing a surface-based 3D/3D matching. Methods: Data sets of 14 pelvises (one plastic bone, 12 cadavers, and one patient) were used to validate the single-image based reconstruction technique. This reconstruction technique is based on a hybrid 2D/3D deformable registration process combining a landmark-to-ray registration with a SSM-based 2D/3D reconstruction.more » The landmark-to-ray registration was used to find an initial scale and an initial rigid transformation between the x-ray image and the SSM. The estimated scale and rigid transformation were used to initialize the SSM-based 2D/3D reconstruction. The optimal reconstruction was then achieved in three stages by iteratively matching the projections of the apparent contours extracted from a 3D model derived from the SSM to the image contours extracted from the x-ray radiograph: Iterative affine registration, statistical instantiation, and iterative regularized shape deformation. The image contours are first detected by using a semiautomatic segmentation tool based on the Livewire algorithm and then approximated by a set of sparse dominant points that are adaptively sampled from the detected contours. The unknown scales of the reconstructed models were estimated by performing a surface-based 3D/3D matching between the reconstructed models and the associated ground truth models that were derived from a CT-based reconstruction method. Such a matching also allowed for computing the errors between the reconstructed models and the associated ground truth models. Results: The technique could reconstruct the surface models of all 14 pelvises directly from the landmark-based initialization. Depending on the surface-based matching techniques, the reconstruction errors were slightly different. When a surface-based iterative affine registration was used, an average reconstruction error of 1.6 mm was observed. This error was increased to 1.9 mm, when a surface-based iterative scaled rigid registration was used. Conclusions: It is feasible to reconstruct a scaled, patient-specific surface model of the pelvis from single standard AP x-ray radiograph using the present approach. The unknown scale of the reconstructed model can be estimated by performing a surface-based 3D/3D matching.« less

On representing the prognostic value of continuous gene expression biomarkers with the restricted mean survival curve.

PubMed

Eng, Kevin H; Schiller, Emily; Morrell, Kayla

2015-11-03

Researchers developing biomarkers for cancer prognosis from quantitative gene expression data are often faced with an odd methodological discrepancy: while Cox's proportional hazards model, the appropriate and popular technique, produces a continuous and relative risk score, it is hard to cast the estimate in clear clinical terms like median months of survival and percent of patients affected. To produce a familiar Kaplan-Meier plot, researchers commonly make the decision to dichotomize a continuous (often unimodal and symmetric) score. It is well known in the statistical literature that this procedure induces significant bias. We illustrate the liabilities of common techniques for categorizing a risk score and discuss alternative approaches. We promote the use of the restricted mean survival (RMS) and the corresponding RMS curve that may be thought of as an analog to the best fit line from simple linear regression. Continuous biomarker workflows should be modified to include the more rigorous statistical techniques and descriptive plots described in this article. All statistics discussed can be computed via standard functions in the Survival package of the R statistical programming language. Example R language code for the RMS curve is presented in the appendix.

Improvements in approaches to forecasting and evaluation techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weatherhead, Elizabeth

2014-05-01

The US is embarking on an experiment to make significant and sustained improvements in weather forecasting. The effort stems from a series of community conversations that recognized the rapid advancements in observations, modeling and computing techniques in the academic, governmental and private sectors. The new directions and initial efforts will be summarized, including information on possibilities for international collaboration. Most new projects are scheduled to start in the last half of 2014. Several advancements include ensemble forecasting with global models, and new sharing of computing resources. Newly developed techniques for evaluating weather forecast models will be presented in detail. The approaches use statistical techniques that incorporate pair-wise comparisons of forecasts with observations and account for daily auto-correlation to assess appropriate uncertainty in forecast changes. Some of the new projects allow for international collaboration, particularly on the research components of the projects.

Application of machine/statistical learning, artificial intelligence and statistical experimental design for the modeling and optimization of methylene blue and Cd(ii) removal from a binary aqueous solution by natural walnut carbon.

PubMed

Mazaheri, H; Ghaedi, M; Ahmadi Azqhandi, M H; Asfaram, A

2017-05-10

Analytical chemists apply statistical methods for both the validation and prediction of proposed models. Methods are required that are adequate for finding the typical features of a dataset, such as nonlinearities and interactions. Boosted regression trees (BRTs), as an ensemble technique, are fundamentally different to other conventional techniques, with the aim to fit a single parsimonious model. In this work, BRT, artificial neural network (ANN) and response surface methodology (RSM) models have been used for the optimization and/or modeling of the stirring time (min), pH, adsorbent mass (mg) and concentrations of MB and Cd 2+ ions (mg L -1 ) in order to develop respective predictive equations for simulation of the efficiency of MB and Cd 2+ adsorption based on the experimental data set. Activated carbon, as an adsorbent, was synthesized from walnut wood waste which is abundant, non-toxic, cheap and locally available. This adsorbent was characterized using different techniques such as FT-IR, BET, SEM, point of zero charge (pH pzc ) and also the determination of oxygen containing functional groups. The influence of various parameters (i.e. pH, stirring time, adsorbent mass and concentrations of MB and Cd 2+ ions) on the percentage removal was calculated by investigation of sensitive function, variable importance rankings (BRT) and analysis of variance (RSM). Furthermore, a central composite design (CCD) combined with a desirability function approach (DFA) as a global optimization technique was used for the simultaneous optimization of the effective parameters. The applicability of the BRT, ANN and RSM models for the description of experimental data was examined using four statistical criteria (absolute average deviation (AAD), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R 2 )). All three models demonstrated good predictions in this study. The BRT model was more precise compared to the other models and this showed that BRT could be a powerful tool for the modeling and optimizing of removal of MB and Cd(ii). Sensitivity analysis (calculated from the weight of neurons in ANN) confirmed that the adsorbent mass and pH were the essential factors affecting the removal of MB and Cd(ii), with relative importances of 28.82% and 38.34%, respectively. A good agreement (R 2 > 0.960) between the predicted and experimental values was obtained. Maximum removal (R% > 99) was achieved at an initial dye concentration of 15 mg L -1 , a Cd 2+ concentration of 20 mg L -1 , a pH of 5.2, an adsorbent mass of 0.55 g and a time of 35 min.

Statistical methods for efficient design of community surveys of response to noise: Random coefficients regression models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tomberlin, T. J.

1985-01-01

Research studies of residents' responses to noise consist of interviews with samples of individuals who are drawn from a number of different compact study areas. The statistical techniques developed provide a basis for those sample design decisions. These techniques are suitable for a wide range of sample survey applications. A sample may consist of a random sample of residents selected from a sample of compact study areas, or in a more complex design, of a sample of residents selected from a sample of larger areas (e.g., cities). The techniques may be applied to estimates of the effects on annoyance of noise level, numbers of noise events, the time-of-day of the events, ambient noise levels, or other factors. Methods are provided for determining, in advance, how accurately these effects can be estimated for different sample sizes and study designs. Using a simple cost function, they also provide for optimum allocation of the sample across the stages of the design for estimating these effects. These techniques are developed via a regression model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be random, with components of variance associated with the various stages of a multi-stage sample design.

Center of Excellence for Applied Mathematical and Statistical Research in support of development of multicrop production monitoring capability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodward, W. A.; Gray, H. L.

1983-01-01

Efforts in support of the development of multicrop production monitoring capability are reported. In particular, segment level proportion estimation techniques based upon a mixture model were investigated. Efforts have dealt primarily with evaluation of current techniques and development of alternative ones. A comparison of techniques is provided on both simulated and LANDSAT data along with an analysis of the quality of profile variables obtained from LANDSAT data.

Correlation techniques to determine model form in robust nonlinear system realization/identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stry, Greselda I.; Mook, D. Joseph

1991-01-01

The fundamental challenge in identification of nonlinear dynamic systems is determining the appropriate form of the model. A robust technique is presented which essentially eliminates this problem for many applications. The technique is based on the Minimum Model Error (MME) optimal estimation approach. A detailed literature review is included in which fundamental differences between the current approach and previous work is described. The most significant feature is the ability to identify nonlinear dynamic systems without prior assumption regarding the form of the nonlinearities, in contrast to existing nonlinear identification approaches which usually require detailed assumptions of the nonlinearities. Model form is determined via statistical correlation of the MME optimal state estimates with the MME optimal model error estimates. The example illustrations indicate that the method is robust with respect to prior ignorance of the model, and with respect to measurement noise, measurement frequency, and measurement record length.

A review of downscaling procedures - a contribution to the research on climate change impacts at city scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smid, Marek; Costa, Ana; Pebesma, Edzer; Granell, Carlos; Bhattacharya, Devanjan

2016-04-01

Human kind is currently predominantly urban based, and the majority of ever continuing population growth will take place in urban agglomerations. Urban systems are not only major drivers of climate change, but also the impact hot spots. Furthermore, climate change impacts are commonly managed at city scale. Therefore, assessing climate change impacts on urban systems is a very relevant subject of research. Climate and its impacts on all levels (local, meso and global scale) and also the inter-scale dependencies of those processes should be a subject to detail analysis. While global and regional projections of future climate are currently available, local-scale information is lacking. Hence, statistical downscaling methodologies represent a potentially efficient way to help to close this gap. In general, the methodological reviews of downscaling procedures cover the various methods according to their application (e.g. downscaling for the hydrological modelling). Some of the most recent and comprehensive studies, such as the ESSEM COST Action ES1102 (VALUE), use the concept of Perfect Prog and MOS. Other examples of classification schemes of downscaling techniques consider three main categories: linear methods, weather classifications and weather generators. Downscaling and climate modelling represent a multidisciplinary field, where researchers from various backgrounds intersect their efforts, resulting in specific terminology, which may be somewhat confusing. For instance, the Polynomial Regression (also called the Surface Trend Analysis) is a statistical technique. In the context of the spatial interpolation procedures, it is commonly classified as a deterministic technique, and kriging approaches are classified as stochastic. Furthermore, the terms "statistical" and "stochastic" (frequently used as names of sub-classes in downscaling methodological reviews) are not always considered as synonymous, even though both terms could be seen as identical since they are referring to methods handling input modelling factors as variables with certain probability distributions. In addition, the recent development is going towards multi-step methodologies containing deterministic and stochastic components. This evolution leads to the introduction of new terms like hybrid or semi-stochastic approaches, which makes the efforts to systematically classifying downscaling methods to the previously defined categories even more challenging. This work presents a review of statistical downscaling procedures, which classifies the methods in two steps. In the first step, we describe several techniques that produce a single climatic surface based on observations. The methods are classified into two categories using an approximation to the broadest consensual statistical terms: linear and non-linear methods. The second step covers techniques that use simulations to generate alternative surfaces, which correspond to different realizations of the same processes. Those simulations are essential because there is a limited number of real observational data, and such procedures are crucial for modelling extremes. This work emphasises the link between statistical downscaling methods and the research of climate change impacts at city scale.

A Sub-filter Scale Noise Equation far Hybrid LES Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldstein, Marvin E.

2006-01-01

Hybrid LES/subscale modeling approaches have an important advantage over the current noise prediction methods in that they only involve modeling of the relatively universal subscale motion and not the configuration dependent larger scale turbulence . Previous hybrid approaches use approximate statistical techniques or extrapolation methods to obtain the requisite information about the sub-filter scale motion. An alternative approach would be to adopt the modeling techniques used in the current noise prediction methods and determine the unknown stresses from experimental data. The present paper derives an equation for predicting the sub scale sound from information that can be obtained with currently available experimental procedures. The resulting prediction method would then be intermediate between the current noise prediction codes and previously proposed hybrid techniques.

Segmentation of prostate boundaries from ultrasound images using statistical shape model.

PubMed

Shen, Dinggang; Zhan, Yiqiang; Davatzikos, Christos

2003-04-01

This paper presents a statistical shape model for the automatic prostate segmentation in transrectal ultrasound images. A Gabor filter bank is first used to characterize the prostate boundaries in ultrasound images in both multiple scales and multiple orientations. The Gabor features are further reconstructed to be invariant to the rotation of the ultrasound probe and incorporated in the prostate model as image attributes for guiding the deformable segmentation. A hierarchical deformation strategy is then employed, in which the model adaptively focuses on the similarity of different Gabor features at different deformation stages using a multiresolution technique, i.e., coarse features first and fine features later. A number of successful experiments validate the algorithm.

Direct atomic force microscopy observation of DNA tile crystal growth at the single-molecule level.

PubMed

Evans, Constantine G; Hariadi, Rizal F; Winfree, Erik

2012-06-27

While the theoretical implications of models of DNA tile self-assembly have been extensively researched and such models have been used to design DNA tile systems for use in experiments, there has been little research testing the fundamental assumptions of those models. In this paper, we use direct observation of individual tile attachments and detachments of two DNA tile systems on a mica surface imaged with an atomic force microscope (AFM) to compile statistics of tile attachments and detachments. We show that these statistics fit the widely used kinetic Tile Assembly Model and demonstrate AFM movies as a viable technique for directly investigating DNA tile systems during growth rather than after assembly.

Application of neural network technique to determine a corrector surface for global geopotential model using GPS/levelling measurements in Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elshambaky, Hossam Talaat

2018-01-01

Owing to the appearance of many global geopotential models, it is necessary to determine the most appropriate model for use in Egyptian territory. In this study, we aim to investigate three global models, namely EGM2008, EIGEN-6c4, and GECO. We use five mathematical transformation techniques, i.e., polynomial expression, exponential regression, least-squares collocation, multilayer feed forward neural network, and radial basis neural networks to make the conversion from regional geometrical geoid to global geoid models and vice versa. From a statistical comparison study based on quality indexes between previous transformation techniques, we confirm that the multilayer feed forward neural network with two neurons is the most accurate of the examined transformation technique, and based on the mean tide condition, EGM2008 represents the most suitable global geopotential model for use in Egyptian territory to date. The final product gained from this study was the corrector surface that was used to facilitate the transformation process between regional geometrical geoid model and the global geoid model.

Time series modeling in traffic safety research.

PubMed

Lavrenz, Steven M; Vlahogianni, Eleni I; Gkritza, Konstantina; Ke, Yue

2018-08-01

The use of statistical models for analyzing traffic safety (crash) data has been well-established. However, time series techniques have traditionally been underrepresented in the corresponding literature, due to challenges in data collection, along with a limited knowledge of proper methodology. In recent years, new types of high-resolution traffic safety data, especially in measuring driver behavior, have made time series modeling techniques an increasingly salient topic of study. Yet there remains a dearth of information to guide analysts in their use. This paper provides an overview of the state of the art in using time series models in traffic safety research, and discusses some of the fundamental techniques and considerations in classic time series modeling. It also presents ongoing and future opportunities for expanding the use of time series models, and explores newer modeling techniques, including computational intelligence models, which hold promise in effectively handling ever-larger data sets. The information contained herein is meant to guide safety researchers in understanding this broad area of transportation data analysis, and provide a framework for understanding safety trends that can influence policy-making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approximate Model Checking of PCTL Involving Unbounded Path Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Samik; Ghosh, Arka P.; He, Ru

We study the problem of applying statistical methods for approximate model checking of probabilistic systems against properties encoded as PCTL formulas. Such approximate methods have been proposed primarily to deal with state-space explosion that makes the exact model checking by numerical methods practically infeasible for large systems. However, the existing statistical methods either consider a restricted subset of PCTL, specifically, the subset that can only express bounded until properties; or rely on user-specified finite bound on the sample path length. We propose a new method that does not have such restrictions and can be effectively used to reason about unbounded until properties. We approximate probabilistic characteristics of an unbounded until property by that of a bounded until property for a suitably chosen value of the bound. In essence, our method is a two-phase process: (a) the first phase is concerned with identifying the bound k 0; (b) the second phase computes the probability of satisfying the k 0-bounded until property as an estimate for the probability of satisfying the corresponding unbounded until property. In both phases, it is sufficient to verify bounded until properties which can be effectively done using existing statistical techniques. We prove the correctness of our technique and present its prototype implementations. We empirically show the practical applicability of our method by considering different case studies including a simple infinite-state model, and large finite-state models such as IPv4 zeroconf protocol and dining philosopher protocol modeled as Discrete Time Markov chains.

Geometric parameter analysis to predetermine optimal radiosurgery technique for the treatment of arteriovenous malformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mestrovic, Ante; Clark, Brenda G.; Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia

2005-11-01

Purpose: To develop a method of predicting the values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques for treatment of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) based on internal geometric parameters. Methods and Materials: For each of 18 previously treated AVM patients, four treatment plans were created: circular collimator arcs, dynamic conformal arcs, fixed conformal fields, and intensity-modulated radiosurgery. An algorithm was developed to characterize the target and critical structure shape complexity and the position of the critical structures with respect to the target. Multiple regression was employed to establish the correlation between the internal geometric parameters and the dose distribution for differentmore » treatment techniques. The results from the model were applied to predict the dosimetric outcomes of different radiosurgery techniques and select the optimal radiosurgery technique for a number of AVM patients. Results: Several internal geometric parameters showing statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) with the treatment planning results for each technique were identified. The target volume and the average minimum distance between the target and the critical structures were the most effective predictors for normal tissue dose distribution. The structure overlap volume with the target and the mean distance between the target and the critical structure were the most effective predictors for critical structure dose distribution. The predicted values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques were in close agreement with the original data. Conclusions: A statistical model has been described that successfully predicts the values of dose distribution parameters of different radiosurgery techniques and may be used to predetermine the optimal technique on a patient-to-patient basis.« less

Load Balancing Using Time Series Analysis for Soft Real Time Systems with Statistically Periodic Loads

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hailperin, M.

1993-01-01

This thesis provides design and analysis of techniques for global load balancing on ensemble architectures running soft-real-time object-oriented applications with statistically periodic loads. It focuses on estimating the instantaneous average load over all the processing elements. The major contribution is the use of explicit stochastic process models for both the loading and the averaging itself. These models are exploited via statistical time-series analysis and Bayesian inference to provide improved average load estimates, and thus to facilitate global load balancing. This thesis explains the distributed algorithms used and provides some optimality results. It also describes the algorithms' implementation and gives performance results from simulation. These results show that the authors' techniques allow more accurate estimation of the global system loading, resulting in fewer object migrations than local methods. The authors' method is shown to provide superior performance, relative not only to static load-balancing schemes but also to many adaptive load-balancing methods. Results from a preliminary analysis of another system and from simulation with a synthetic load provide some evidence of more general applicability.

Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine.

PubMed

Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L; Balleteros, Francisco

2016-12-07

Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets.

Modeling of a Robust Confidence Band for the Power Curve of a Wind Turbine

PubMed Central

Hernandez, Wilmar; Méndez, Alfredo; Maldonado-Correa, Jorge L.; Balleteros, Francisco

2016-01-01

Having an accurate model of the power curve of a wind turbine allows us to better monitor its operation and planning of storage capacity. Since wind speed and direction is of a highly stochastic nature, the forecasting of the power generated by the wind turbine is of the same nature as well. In this paper, a method for obtaining a robust confidence band containing the power curve of a wind turbine under test conditions is presented. Here, the confidence band is bound by two curves which are estimated using parametric statistical inference techniques. However, the observations that are used for carrying out the statistical analysis are obtained by using the binning method, and in each bin, the outliers are eliminated by using a censorship process based on robust statistical techniques. Then, the observations that are not outliers are divided into observation sets. Finally, both the power curve of the wind turbine and the two curves that define the robust confidence band are estimated using each of the previously mentioned observation sets. PMID:27941604

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ashrafi, S.

1991-01-01

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Applying neutron transmission physics and 3D statistical full-field model to understand 2D Bragg-edge imaging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xie, Qingge; Song, Gian; Gorti, Sarma B.

Bragg-edge imaging, which is also known as neutron radiography, has recently emerged as a novel crystalline characterization technique. Modelling of this novel technique by incorporating various features of the underlying microstructure (including the crystallographic texture, the morphological texture, and the grain size) of the material remains a subject of considerable research and development. In this paper, Inconel 718 samples made by additive manufacturing were investigated by neutron diffraction and neutron radiography techniques. The specimen features strong morphological and crystallographic textures and a highly heterogeneous microstructure. A 3D statistical full-field model is introduced by taking details of the microstructure into accountmore » to understand the experimental neutron radiography results. The Bragg-edge imaging and the total cross section were calculated based on the neutron transmission physics. A good match was obtained between the model predictions and experimental results at different incident beam angles with respect to the sample build direction. The current theoretical approach has the ability to incorporate 3D spatially resolved microstructural heterogeneity information and shows promise in understanding the 2D neutron radiography of bulk samples. With further development to incorporate the heterogeneity in lattice strain in the model, it can be used as a powerful tool in the future to better understand the neutron radiography data.« less

Applying neutron transmission physics and 3D statistical full-field model to understand 2D Bragg-edge imaging

DOE PAGES

Xie, Qingge; Song, Gian; Gorti, Sarma B.; ...

2018-02-21

Bragg-edge imaging, which is also known as neutron radiography, has recently emerged as a novel crystalline characterization technique. Modelling of this novel technique by incorporating various features of the underlying microstructure (including the crystallographic texture, the morphological texture, and the grain size) of the material remains a subject of considerable research and development. In this paper, Inconel 718 samples made by additive manufacturing were investigated by neutron diffraction and neutron radiography techniques. The specimen features strong morphological and crystallographic textures and a highly heterogeneous microstructure. A 3D statistical full-field model is introduced by taking details of the microstructure into accountmore » to understand the experimental neutron radiography results. The Bragg-edge imaging and the total cross section were calculated based on the neutron transmission physics. A good match was obtained between the model predictions and experimental results at different incident beam angles with respect to the sample build direction. The current theoretical approach has the ability to incorporate 3D spatially resolved microstructural heterogeneity information and shows promise in understanding the 2D neutron radiography of bulk samples. With further development to incorporate the heterogeneity in lattice strain in the model, it can be used as a powerful tool in the future to better understand the neutron radiography data.« less

Advanced statistics: linear regression, part II: multiple linear regression.

PubMed

Marill, Keith A

2004-01-01

The applications of simple linear regression in medical research are limited, because in most situations, there are multiple relevant predictor variables. Univariate statistical techniques such as simple linear regression use a single predictor variable, and they often may be mathematically correct but clinically misleading. Multiple linear regression is a mathematical technique used to model the relationship between multiple independent predictor variables and a single dependent outcome variable. It is used in medical research to model observational data, as well as in diagnostic and therapeutic studies in which the outcome is dependent on more than one factor. Although the technique generally is limited to data that can be expressed with a linear function, it benefits from a well-developed mathematical framework that yields unique solutions and exact confidence intervals for regression coefficients. Building on Part I of this series, this article acquaints the reader with some of the important concepts in multiple regression analysis. These include multicollinearity, interaction effects, and an expansion of the discussion of inference testing, leverage, and variable transformations to multivariate models. Examples from the first article in this series are expanded on using a primarily graphic, rather than mathematical, approach. The importance of the relationships among the predictor variables and the dependence of the multivariate model coefficients on the choice of these variables are stressed. Finally, concepts in regression model building are discussed.

Goddard trajectory determination subsystem: Mathematical specifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, W. E. (Editor); Velez, C. E. (Editor)

1972-01-01

The mathematical specifications of the Goddard trajectory determination subsystem of the flight dynamics system are presented. These specifications include the mathematical description of the coordinate systems, dynamic and measurement model, numerical integration techniques, and statistical estimation concepts.

An integrated user-friendly ArcMAP tool for bivariate statistical modeling in geoscience applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebur, M. N.; Pradhan, B.; Shafri, H. Z. M.; Yusof, Z.; Tehrany, M. S.

2014-10-01

Modeling and classification difficulties are fundamental issues in natural hazard assessment. A geographic information system (GIS) is a domain that requires users to use various tools to perform different types of spatial modeling. Bivariate statistical analysis (BSA) assists in hazard modeling. To perform this analysis, several calculations are required and the user has to transfer data from one format to another. Most researchers perform these calculations manually by using Microsoft Excel or other programs. This process is time consuming and carries a degree of uncertainty. The lack of proper tools to implement BSA in a GIS environment prompted this study. In this paper, a user-friendly tool, BSM (bivariate statistical modeler), for BSA technique is proposed. Three popular BSA techniques such as frequency ratio, weights-of-evidence, and evidential belief function models are applied in the newly proposed ArcMAP tool. This tool is programmed in Python and is created by a simple graphical user interface, which facilitates the improvement of model performance. The proposed tool implements BSA automatically, thus allowing numerous variables to be examined. To validate the capability and accuracy of this program, a pilot test area in Malaysia is selected and all three models are tested by using the proposed program. Area under curve is used to measure the success rate and prediction rate. Results demonstrate that the proposed program executes BSA with reasonable accuracy. The proposed BSA tool can be used in numerous applications, such as natural hazard, mineral potential, hydrological, and other engineering and environmental applications.

An integrated user-friendly ArcMAP tool for bivariate statistical modelling in geoscience applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jebur, M. N.; Pradhan, B.; Shafri, H. Z. M.; Yusoff, Z. M.; Tehrany, M. S.

2015-03-01

Modelling and classification difficulties are fundamental issues in natural hazard assessment. A geographic information system (GIS) is a domain that requires users to use various tools to perform different types of spatial modelling. Bivariate statistical analysis (BSA) assists in hazard modelling. To perform this analysis, several calculations are required and the user has to transfer data from one format to another. Most researchers perform these calculations manually by using Microsoft Excel or other programs. This process is time-consuming and carries a degree of uncertainty. The lack of proper tools to implement BSA in a GIS environment prompted this study. In this paper, a user-friendly tool, bivariate statistical modeler (BSM), for BSA technique is proposed. Three popular BSA techniques, such as frequency ratio, weight-of-evidence (WoE), and evidential belief function (EBF) models, are applied in the newly proposed ArcMAP tool. This tool is programmed in Python and created by a simple graphical user interface (GUI), which facilitates the improvement of model performance. The proposed tool implements BSA automatically, thus allowing numerous variables to be examined. To validate the capability and accuracy of this program, a pilot test area in Malaysia is selected and all three models are tested by using the proposed program. Area under curve (AUC) is used to measure the success rate and prediction rate. Results demonstrate that the proposed program executes BSA with reasonable accuracy. The proposed BSA tool can be used in numerous applications, such as natural hazard, mineral potential, hydrological, and other engineering and environmental applications.

Intercomparison of Downscaling Methods on Hydrological Impact for Earth System Model of NE United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, P.; Fekete, B. M.; Rosenzweig, B.; Lengyel, F.; Vorosmarty, C. J.

2012-12-01

Atmospheric dynamics are essential inputs to Regional-scale Earth System Models (RESMs). Variables including surface air temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed and humidity must be downscaled from coarse-resolution, global General Circulation Models (GCMs) to the high temporal and spatial resolution required for regional modeling. However, this downscaling procedure can be challenging due to the need to correct for bias from the GCM and to capture the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the regional dynamics. In this study, the results obtained using several downscaling techniques and observational datasets were compared for a RESM of the Northeast Corridor of the United States. Previous efforts have enhanced GCM model outputs through bias correction using novel techniques. For example, the Climate Impact Research at Potsdam Institute developed a series of bias-corrected GCMs towards the next generation climate change scenarios (Schiermeier, 2012; Moss et al., 2010). Techniques to better represent the heterogeneity of climate variables have also been improved using statistical approaches (Maurer, 2008; Abatzoglou, 2011). For this study, four downscaling approaches to transform bias-corrected HADGEM2-ES Model output (daily at .5 x .5 degree) to the 3'*3'(longitude*latitude) daily and monthly resolution required for the Northeast RESM were compared: 1) Bilinear Interpolation, 2) Daily bias-corrected spatial downscaling (D-BCSD) with Gridded Meteorological Datasets (developed by Abazoglou 2011), 3) Monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) with CRU(Climate Research Unit) and 4) Dynamic Downscaling based on Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Spatio-temporal analysis of the variability in precipitation was conducted over the study domain. Validation of the variables of different downscaling methods against observational datasets was carried out for assessment of the downscaled climate model outputs. The effects of using the different approaches to downscale atmospheric variables (specifically air temperature and precipitation) for use as inputs to the Water Balance Model (WBMPlus, Vorosmarty et al., 1998;Wisser et al., 2008) for simulation of daily discharge and monthly stream flow in the Northeast US for a 100-year period in the 21st century were also assessed. Statistical techniques especially monthly bias-corrected spatial disaggregation (M-BCSD) showed potential advantage among other methods for the daily discharge and monthly stream flow simulation. However, Dynamic Downscaling will provide important complements to the statistical approaches tested.

INDUCTIVE SYSTEM HEALTH MONITORING WITH STATISTICAL METRICS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iverson, David L.

2005-01-01

Model-based reasoning is a powerful method for performing system monitoring and diagnosis. Building models for model-based reasoning is often a difficult and time consuming process. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) software was developed to provide a technique to automatically produce health monitoring knowledge bases for systems that are either difficult to model (simulate) with a computer or which require computer models that are too complex to use for real time monitoring. IMS processes nominal data sets collected either directly from the system or from simulations to build a knowledge base that can be used to detect anomalous behavior in the system. Machine learning and data mining techniques are used to characterize typical system behavior by extracting general classes of nominal data from archived data sets. In particular, a clustering algorithm forms groups of nominal values for sets of related parameters. This establishes constraints on those parameter values that should hold during nominal operation. During monitoring, IMS provides a statistically weighted measure of the deviation of current system behavior from the established normal baseline. If the deviation increases beyond the expected level, an anomaly is suspected, prompting further investigation by an operator or automated system. IMS has shown potential to be an effective, low cost technique to produce system monitoring capability for a variety of applications. We describe the training and system health monitoring techniques of IMS. We also present the application of IMS to a data set from the Space Shuttle Columbia STS-107 flight. IMS was able to detect an anomaly in the launch telemetry shortly after a foam impact damaged Columbia's thermal protection system.

Discrete time rescaling theorem: determining goodness of fit for discrete time statistical models of neural spiking.

PubMed

Haslinger, Robert; Pipa, Gordon; Brown, Emery

2010-10-01

One approach for understanding the encoding of information by spike trains is to fit statistical models and then test their goodness of fit. The time-rescaling theorem provides a goodness-of-fit test consistent with the point process nature of spike trains. The interspike intervals (ISIs) are rescaled (as a function of the model's spike probability) to be independent and exponentially distributed if the model is accurate. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test between the rescaled ISIs and the exponential distribution is then used to check goodness of fit. This rescaling relies on assumptions of continuously defined time and instantaneous events. However, spikes have finite width, and statistical models of spike trains almost always discretize time into bins. Here we demonstrate that finite temporal resolution of discrete time models prevents their rescaled ISIs from being exponentially distributed. Poor goodness of fit may be erroneously indicated even if the model is exactly correct. We present two adaptations of the time-rescaling theorem to discrete time models. In the first we propose that instead of assuming the rescaled times to be exponential, the reference distribution be estimated through direct simulation by the fitted model. In the second, we prove a discrete time version of the time-rescaling theorem that analytically corrects for the effects of finite resolution. This allows us to define a rescaled time that is exponentially distributed, even at arbitrary temporal discretizations. We demonstrate the efficacy of both techniques by fitting generalized linear models to both simulated spike trains and spike trains recorded experimentally in monkey V1 cortex. Both techniques give nearly identical results, reducing the false-positive rate of the KS test and greatly increasing the reliability of model evaluation based on the time-rescaling theorem.

Modeling Antimicrobial Activity of Clorox(R) Using an Agar-Diffusion Test: A New Twist On an Old Experiment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mitchell, James K.; Carter, William E.

2000-01-01

Describes using a computer statistical software package called Minitab to model the sensitivity of several microbes to the disinfectant NaOCl (Clorox') using the Kirby-Bauer technique. Each group of students collects data from one microbe, conducts regression analyses, then chooses the best-fit model based on the highest r-values obtained.…

Using "Excel" for White's Test--An Important Technique for Evaluating the Equality of Variance Assumption and Model Specification in a Regression Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Berenson, Mark L.

2013-01-01

There is consensus in the statistical literature that severe departures from its assumptions invalidate the use of regression modeling for purposes of inference. The assumptions of regression modeling are usually evaluated subjectively through visual, graphic displays in a residual analysis but such an approach, taken alone, may be insufficient…

Assessing Tinto's Model of Institutional Departure Using American Indian and Alaskan Native Longitudinal Data. ASHE Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pavel, D. Michael

This paper on postsecondary outcomes illustrates a technique to determine whether or not mainstream models are appropriate for predicting educational outcomes of American Indians (AIs) and Alaskan Native (ANs). It introduces a prominent statistical procedure to assess models with empirical data and shows how the results can have implications for…

Efficient Global Aerodynamic Modeling from Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morelli, Eugene A.

2012-01-01

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Mild cognitive impairment and fMRI studies of brain functional connectivity: the state of the art

PubMed Central

Farràs-Permanyer, Laia; Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan; Peró-Cebollero, Maribel

2015-01-01

In the last 15 years, many articles have studied brain connectivity in Mild Cognitive Impairment patients with fMRI techniques, seemingly using different connectivity statistical models in each investigation to identify complex connectivity structures so as to recognize typical behavior in this type of patient. This diversity in statistical approaches may cause problems in results comparison. This paper seeks to describe how researchers approached the study of brain connectivity in MCI patients using fMRI techniques from 2002 to 2014. The focus is on the statistical analysis proposed by each research group in reference to the limitations and possibilities of those techniques to identify some recommendations to improve the study of functional connectivity. The included articles came from a search of Web of Science and PsycINFO using the following keywords: f MRI, MCI, and functional connectivity. Eighty-one papers were found, but two of them were discarded because of the lack of statistical analysis. Accordingly, 79 articles were included in this review. We summarized some parts of the articles, including the goal of every investigation, the cognitive paradigm and methods used, brain regions involved, use of ROI analysis and statistical analysis, emphasizing on the connectivity estimation model used in each investigation. The present analysis allowed us to confirm the remarkable variability of the statistical analysis methods found. Additionally, the study of brain connectivity in this type of population is not providing, at the moment, any significant information or results related to clinical aspects relevant for prediction and treatment. We propose to follow guidelines for publishing fMRI data that would be a good solution to the problem of study replication. The latter aspect could be important for future publications because a higher homogeneity would benefit the comparison between publications and the generalization of results. PMID:26300802

Network meta-analysis: a technique to gather evidence from direct and indirect comparisons

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Systematic reviews and pairwise meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials, at the intersection of clinical medicine, epidemiology and statistics, are positioned at the top of evidence-based practice hierarchy. These are important tools to base drugs approval, clinical protocols and guidelines formulation and for decision-making. However, this traditional technique only partially yield information that clinicians, patients and policy-makers need to make informed decisions, since it usually compares only two interventions at the time. In the market, regardless the clinical condition under evaluation, usually many interventions are available and few of them have been studied in head-to-head studies. This scenario precludes conclusions to be drawn from comparisons of all interventions profile (e.g. efficacy and safety). The recent development and introduction of a new technique – usually referred as network meta-analysis, indirect meta-analysis, multiple or mixed treatment comparisons – has allowed the estimation of metrics for all possible comparisons in the same model, simultaneously gathering direct and indirect evidence. Over the last years this statistical tool has matured as technique with models available for all types of raw data, producing different pooled effect measures, using both Frequentist and Bayesian frameworks, with different software packages. However, the conduction, report and interpretation of network meta-analysis still poses multiple challenges that should be carefully considered, especially because this technique inherits all assumptions from pairwise meta-analysis but with increased complexity. Thus, we aim to provide a basic explanation of network meta-analysis conduction, highlighting its risks and benefits for evidence-based practice, including information on statistical methods evolution, assumptions and steps for performing the analysis. PMID:28503228

A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zack, J. W.

2015-12-01

Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble, which is a case-matching scheme. The presentation will provide (1) an overview of each method and the experimental design, (2) performance comparisons based on standard metrics such as bias, MAE and RMSE, (3) a summary of the performance characteristics of each approach and (4) a preview of further experiments to be conducted.

A Review of Structural Equation Modeling Applications in Turkish Educational Science Literature, 2010-2015

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karakaya-Ozyer, Kubra; Aksu-Dunya, Beyza

2018-01-01

Structural equation modeling (SEM) is one of the most popular multivariate statistical techniques in Turkish educational research. This study elaborates the SEM procedures employed by 75 educational research articles which were published from 2010 to 2015 in Turkey. After documenting and coding 75 academic papers, categorical frequencies and…

Conjoint Analysis: A Study of the Effects of Using Person Variables.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fraas, John W.; Newman, Isadore

Three statistical techniques--conjoint analysis, a multiple linear regression model, and a multiple linear regression model with a surrogate person variable--were used to estimate the relative importance of five university attributes for students in the process of selecting a college. The five attributes include: availability and variety of…

Teaching for Art Criticism: Incorporating Feldman's Critical Analysis Learning Model in Students' Studio Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Subramaniam, Maithreyi; Hanafi, Jaffri; Putih, Abu Talib

2016-01-01

This study adopted 30 first year graphic design students' artwork, with critical analysis using Feldman's model of art criticism. Data were analyzed quantitatively; descriptive statistical techniques were employed. The scores were viewed in the form of mean score and frequencies to determine students' performances in their critical ability.…

Statistics and Informatics in Space Astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feigelson, E.

2017-12-01

The interest in statistical and computational methodology has seen rapid growth in space-based astrophysics, parallel to the growth seen in Earth remote sensing. There is widespread agreement that scientific interpretation of the cosmic microwave background, discovery of exoplanets, and classifying multiwavelength surveys is too complex to be accomplished with traditional techniques. NASA operates several well-functioning Science Archive Research Centers providing 0.5 PBy datasets to the research community. These databases are integrated with full-text journal articles in the NASA Astrophysics Data System (200K pageviews/day). Data products use interoperable formats and protocols established by the International Virtual Observatory Alliance. NASA supercomputers also support complex astrophysical models of systems such as accretion disks and planet formation. Academic researcher interest in methodology has significantly grown in areas such as Bayesian inference and machine learning, and statistical research is underway to treat problems such as irregularly spaced time series and astrophysical model uncertainties. Several scholarly societies have created interest groups in astrostatistics and astroinformatics. Improvements are needed on several fronts. Community education in advanced methodology is not sufficiently rapid to meet the research needs. Statistical procedures within NASA science analysis software are sometimes not optimal, and pipeline development may not use modern software engineering techniques. NASA offers few grant opportunities supporting research in astroinformatics and astrostatistics.

An approach for the assessment of the statistical aspects of the SEA coupling loss factors and the vibrational energy transmission in complex aircraft structures: Experimental investigation and methods benchmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouhaj, M.; von Estorff, O.; Peiffer, A.

2017-09-01

In the application of Statistical Energy Analysis "SEA" to complex assembled structures, a purely predictive model often exhibits errors. These errors are mainly due to a lack of accurate modelling of the power transmission mechanism described through the Coupling Loss Factors (CLF). Experimental SEA (ESEA) is practically used by the automotive and aerospace industry to verify and update the model or to derive the CLFs for use in an SEA predictive model when analytical estimates cannot be made. This work is particularly motivated by the lack of procedures that allow an estimate to be made of the variance and confidence intervals of the statistical quantities when using the ESEA technique. The aim of this paper is to introduce procedures enabling a statistical description of measured power input, vibration energies and the derived SEA parameters. Particular emphasis is placed on the identification of structural CLFs of complex built-up structures comparing different methods. By adopting a Stochastic Energy Model (SEM), the ensemble average in ESEA is also addressed. For this purpose, expressions are obtained to randomly perturb the energy matrix elements and generate individual samples for the Monte Carlo (MC) technique applied to derive the ensemble averaged CLF. From results of ESEA tests conducted on an aircraft fuselage section, the SEM approach provides a better performance of estimated CLFs compared to classical matrix inversion methods. The expected range of CLF values and the synthesized energy are used as quality criteria of the matrix inversion, allowing to assess critical SEA subsystems, which might require a more refined statistical description of the excitation and the response fields. Moreover, the impact of the variance of the normalized vibration energy on uncertainty of the derived CLFs is outlined.

Joint Data Assimilation and Parameter Calibration in on-line groundwater modelling using Sequential Monte Carlo techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramgraber, M.; Schirmer, M.

2017-12-01

As computational power grows and wireless sensor networks find their way into common practice, it becomes increasingly feasible to pursue on-line numerical groundwater modelling. The reconciliation of model predictions with sensor measurements often necessitates the application of Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) techniques, most prominently represented by the Ensemble Kalman Filter. In the pursuit of on-line predictions it seems advantageous to transcend the scope of pure data assimilation and incorporate on-line parameter calibration as well. Unfortunately, the interplay between shifting model parameters and transient states is non-trivial. Several recent publications (e.g. Chopin et al., 2013, Kantas et al., 2015) in the field of statistics discuss potential algorithms addressing this issue. However, most of these are computationally intractable for on-line application. In this study, we investigate to what extent compromises between mathematical rigour and computational restrictions can be made within the framework of on-line numerical modelling of groundwater. Preliminary studies are conducted in a synthetic setting, with the goal of transferring the conclusions drawn into application in a real-world setting. To this end, a wireless sensor network has been established in the valley aquifer around Fehraltorf, characterized by a highly dynamic groundwater system and located about 20 km to the East of Zürich, Switzerland. By providing continuous probabilistic estimates of the state and parameter distribution, a steady base for branched-off predictive scenario modelling could be established, providing water authorities with advanced tools for assessing the impact of groundwater management practices. Chopin, N., Jacob, P.E. and Papaspiliopoulos, O. (2013): SMC2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 75 (3), p. 397-426. Kantas, N., Doucet, A., Singh, S.S., Maciejowski, J., and Chopin, N. (2015): On Particle Methods for Parameter Estimation in State-Space Models. Statistical Science, 30 (3), p. 328.-351.

Evaluation of Statistical Downscaling Skill at Reproducing Extreme Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinnis, S. A.; Tye, M. R.; Nychka, D. W.; Mearns, L. O.

2015-12-01

Climate model outputs usually have much coarser spatial resolution than is needed by impacts models. Although higher resolution can be achieved using regional climate models for dynamical downscaling, further downscaling is often required. The final resolution gap is often closed with a combination of spatial interpolation and bias correction, which constitutes a form of statistical downscaling. We use this technique to downscale regional climate model data and evaluate its skill in reproducing extreme events. We downscale output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) dataset from its native 50-km spatial resolution to the 4-km resolution of University of Idaho's METDATA gridded surface meterological dataset, which derives from the PRISM and NLDAS-2 observational datasets. We operate on the major variables used in impacts analysis at a daily timescale: daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, humidity, pressure, solar radiation, and winds. To interpolate the data, we use the patch recovery method from the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) regridding package. We then bias correct the data using Kernel Density Distribution Mapping (KDDM), which has been shown to exhibit superior overall performance across multiple metrics. Finally, we evaluate the skill of this technique in reproducing extreme events by comparing raw and downscaled output with meterological station data in different bioclimatic regions according to the the skill scores defined by Perkins et al in 2013 for evaluation of AR4 climate models. We also investigate techniques for improving bias correction of values in the tails of the distributions. These techniques include binned kernel density estimation, logspline kernel density estimation, and transfer functions constructed by fitting the tails with a generalized pareto distribution.

Discrete Time Rescaling Theorem: Determining Goodness of Fit for Discrete Time Statistical Models of Neural Spiking

PubMed Central

Haslinger, Robert; Pipa, Gordon; Brown, Emery

2010-01-01

One approach for understanding the encoding of information by spike trains is to fit statistical models and then test their goodness of fit. The time rescaling theorem provides a goodness of fit test consistent with the point process nature of spike trains. The interspike intervals (ISIs) are rescaled (as a function of the model’s spike probability) to be independent and exponentially distributed if the model is accurate. A Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS) test between the rescaled ISIs and the exponential distribution is then used to check goodness of fit. This rescaling relies upon assumptions of continuously defined time and instantaneous events. However spikes have finite width and statistical models of spike trains almost always discretize time into bins. Here we demonstrate that finite temporal resolution of discrete time models prevents their rescaled ISIs from being exponentially distributed. Poor goodness of fit may be erroneously indicated even if the model is exactly correct. We present two adaptations of the time rescaling theorem to discrete time models. In the first we propose that instead of assuming the rescaled times to be exponential, the reference distribution be estimated through direct simulation by the fitted model. In the second, we prove a discrete time version of the time rescaling theorem which analytically corrects for the effects of finite resolution. This allows us to define a rescaled time which is exponentially distributed, even at arbitrary temporal discretizations. We demonstrate the efficacy of both techniques by fitting Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) to both simulated spike trains and spike trains recorded experimentally in monkey V1 cortex. Both techniques give nearly identical results, reducing the false positive rate of the KS test and greatly increasing the reliability of model evaluation based upon the time rescaling theorem. PMID:20608868

Quantification of model uncertainty in aerosol optical thickness retrieval from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Määttä, A.; Laine, M.; Tamminen, J.; Veefkind, J. P.

2013-09-01

We study uncertainty quantification in remote sensing of aerosols in the atmosphere with top of the atmosphere reflectance measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Focus is on the uncertainty in aerosol model selection of pre-calculated aerosol models and on the statistical modelling of the model inadequacies. The aim is to apply statistical methodologies that improve the uncertainty estimates of the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) retrieval by propagating model selection and model error related uncertainties more realistically. We utilise Bayesian model selection and model averaging methods for the model selection problem and use Gaussian processes to model the smooth systematic discrepancies from the modelled to observed reflectance. The systematic model error is learned from an ensemble of operational retrievals. The operational OMI multi-wavelength aerosol retrieval algorithm OMAERO is used for cloud free, over land pixels of the OMI instrument with the additional Bayesian model selection and model discrepancy techniques. The method is demonstrated with four examples with different aerosol properties: weakly absorbing aerosols, forest fires over Greece and Russia, and Sahara dessert dust. The presented statistical methodology is general; it is not restricted to this particular satellite retrieval application.

Statistical techniques for the characterization of partially observed epidemics.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Crary, David

Techniques appear promising to construct and integrate automated detect-and-characterize technique for epidemics - Working off biosurveillance data, and provides information on the particular/ongoing outbreak. Potential use - in crisis management and planning, resource allocation - Parameter estimation capability ideal for providing the input parameters into an agent-based model, Index Cases, Time of Infection, infection rate. Non-communicable diseases are easier than communicable ones - Small anthrax can be characterized well with 7-10 days of data, post-detection; plague takes longer, Large attacks are very easy.

Forecasting in foodservice: model development, testing, and evaluation.

PubMed

Miller, J L; Thompson, P A; Orabella, M M

1991-05-01

This study was designed to develop, test, and evaluate mathematical models appropriate for forecasting menu-item production demand in foodservice. Data were collected from residence and dining hall foodservices at Ohio State University. Objectives of the study were to collect, code, and analyze the data; develop and test models using actual operation data; and compare forecasting results with current methods in use. Customer count was forecast using deseasonalized simple exponential smoothing. Menu-item demand was forecast by multiplying the count forecast by a predicted preference statistic. Forecasting models were evaluated using mean squared error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error techniques. All models were more accurate than current methods. A broad spectrum of forecasting techniques could be used by foodservice managers with access to a personal computer and spread-sheet and database-management software. The findings indicate that mathematical forecasting techniques may be effective in foodservice operations to control costs, increase productivity, and maximize profits.

Daily pan evaporation modelling using a neuro-fuzzy computing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kişi, Özgür

2006-10-01

SummaryEvaporation, as a major component of the hydrologic cycle, is important in water resources development and management. This paper investigates the abilities of neuro-fuzzy (NF) technique to improve the accuracy of daily evaporation estimation. Five different NF models comprising various combinations of daily climatic variables, that is, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, pressure and humidity are developed to evaluate degree of effect of each of these variables on evaporation. A comparison is made between the estimates provided by the NF model and the artificial neural networks (ANNs). The Stephens-Stewart (SS) method is also considered for the comparison. Various statistic measures are used to evaluate the performance of the models. Based on the comparisons, it was found that the NF computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling evaporation process from the available climatic data. The ANN also found to perform better than the SS method.

Unified risk analysis of fatigue failure in ductile alloy components during all three stages of fatigue crack evolution process.

PubMed

Patankar, Ravindra

2003-10-01

Statistical fatigue life of a ductile alloy specimen is traditionally divided into three stages, namely, crack nucleation, small crack growth, and large crack growth. Crack nucleation and small crack growth show a wide variation and hence a big spread on cycles versus crack length graph. Relatively, large crack growth shows a lesser variation. Therefore, different models are fitted to the different stages of the fatigue evolution process, thus treating different stages as different phenomena. With these independent models, it is impossible to predict one phenomenon based on the information available about the other phenomenon. Experimentally, it is easier to carry out crack length measurements of large cracks compared to nucleating cracks and small cracks. Thus, it is easier to collect statistical data for large crack growth compared to the painstaking effort it would take to collect statistical data for crack nucleation and small crack growth. This article presents a fracture mechanics-based stochastic model of fatigue crack growth in ductile alloys that are commonly encountered in mechanical structures and machine components. The model has been validated by Ray (1998) for crack propagation by various statistical fatigue data. Based on the model, this article proposes a technique to predict statistical information of fatigue crack nucleation and small crack growth properties that uses the statistical properties of large crack growth under constant amplitude stress excitation. The statistical properties of large crack growth under constant amplitude stress excitation can be obtained via experiments.

Optimizing construction quality management of pavements using mechanistic performance analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-08-01

This report presents a statistical-based algorithm that was developed to reconcile the results from several pavement performance models used in the state of practice with systematic process control techniques. These algorithms identify project-specif...

Multilayer Statistical Intrusion Detection in Wireless Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Mohamed; Meddeb-Makhlouf, Amel; Boudriga, Noureddine

2008-12-01

The rapid proliferation of mobile applications and services has introduced new vulnerabilities that do not exist in fixed wired networks. Traditional security mechanisms, such as access control and encryption, turn out to be inefficient in modern wireless networks. Given the shortcomings of the protection mechanisms, an important research focuses in intrusion detection systems (IDSs). This paper proposes a multilayer statistical intrusion detection framework for wireless networks. The architecture is adequate to wireless networks because the underlying detection models rely on radio parameters and traffic models. Accurate correlation between radio and traffic anomalies allows enhancing the efficiency of the IDS. A radio signal fingerprinting technique based on the maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) is developed. Moreover, a geometric clustering algorithm is presented. Depending on the characteristics of the fingerprinting technique, the clustering algorithm permits to control the false positive and false negative rates. Finally, simulation experiments have been carried out to validate the proposed IDS.

Combination of complementary data mining methods for geographical characterization of extra virgin olive oils based on mineral composition.

PubMed

Sayago, Ana; González-Domínguez, Raúl; Beltrán, Rafael; Fernández-Recamales, Ángeles

2018-09-30

This work explores the potential of multi-element fingerprinting in combination with advanced data mining strategies to assess the geographical origin of extra virgin olive oil samples. For this purpose, the concentrations of 55 elements were determined in 125 oil samples from multiple Spanish geographic areas. Several unsupervised and supervised multivariate statistical techniques were used to build classification models and investigate the relationship between mineral composition of olive oils and their provenance. Results showed that Spanish extra virgin olive oils exhibit characteristic element profiles, which can be differentiated on the basis of their origin in accordance with three geographical areas: Atlantic coast (Huelva province), Mediterranean coast and inland regions. Furthermore, statistical modelling yielded high sensitivity and specificity, principally when random forest and support vector machines were employed, thus demonstrating the utility of these techniques in food traceability and authenticity research. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Down-Gradient Impacts of DNAPL Source Depletion Using Tracer Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, N. B.; Fure, A. D.; Jawitz, J. W.

2006-12-01

Four simplified DNAPL source depletion models that have been discussed in the literature recently are evaluated for the prediction of long-term effects of source depletion under natural gradient flow. These models are simple in form (a power function equation is an example) but are shown here to serve as mathematical analogs to complex multiphase flow and transport simulators. One of the source depletion models, the equilibrium streamtube model, is shown to be relatively easily parameterized using non-reactive and reactive tracers. Non-reactive tracers are used to characterize the aquifer heterogeneity while reactive tracers are used to describe the mean DNAPL mass and its distribution. This information is then used in a Lagrangian framework to predict source remediation performance. In a Lagrangian approach the source zone is conceptualized as a collection of non-interacting streamtubes with hydrodynamic and DNAPL heterogeneity represented by the variation of the travel time and DNAPL saturation among the streamtubes. The travel time statistics are estimated from the non-reactive tracer data while the DNAPL distribution statistics are estimated from the reactive tracer data. The combined statistics are used to define an analytical solution for contaminant dissolution under natural gradient flow. The tracer prediction technique compared favorably with results from a multiphase flow and transport simulator UTCHEM in domains with different hydrodynamic heterogeneity (variance of the log conductivity field = 0.2, 1 and 3).

Statistical strategy for anisotropic adventitia modelling in IVUS.

PubMed

Gil, Debora; Hernández, Aura; Rodriguez, Oriol; Mauri, Josepa; Radeva, Petia

2006-06-01

Vessel plaque assessment by analysis of intravascular ultrasound sequences is a useful tool for cardiac disease diagnosis and intervention. Manual detection of luminal (inner) and media-adventitia (external) vessel borders is the main activity of physicians in the process of lumen narrowing (plaque) quantification. Difficult definition of vessel border descriptors, as well as, shades, artifacts, and blurred signal response due to ultrasound physical properties trouble automated adventitia segmentation. In order to efficiently approach such a complex problem, we propose blending advanced anisotropic filtering operators and statistical classification techniques into a vessel border modelling strategy. Our systematic statistical analysis shows that the reported adventitia detection achieves an accuracy in the range of interobserver variability regardless of plaque nature, vessel geometry, and incomplete vessel borders.

Linear regression models and k-means clustering for statistical analysis of fNIRS data.

PubMed

Bonomini, Viola; Zucchelli, Lucia; Re, Rebecca; Ieva, Francesca; Spinelli, Lorenzo; Contini, Davide; Paganoni, Anna; Torricelli, Alessandro

2015-02-01

We propose a new algorithm, based on a linear regression model, to statistically estimate the hemodynamic activations in fNIRS data sets. The main concern guiding the algorithm development was the minimization of assumptions and approximations made on the data set for the application of statistical tests. Further, we propose a K-means method to cluster fNIRS data (i.e. channels) as activated or not activated. The methods were validated both on simulated and in vivo fNIRS data. A time domain (TD) fNIRS technique was preferred because of its high performances in discriminating cortical activation and superficial physiological changes. However, the proposed method is also applicable to continuous wave or frequency domain fNIRS data sets.

Linear regression models and k-means clustering for statistical analysis of fNIRS data

PubMed Central

Bonomini, Viola; Zucchelli, Lucia; Re, Rebecca; Ieva, Francesca; Spinelli, Lorenzo; Contini, Davide; Paganoni, Anna; Torricelli, Alessandro

2015-01-01

We propose a new algorithm, based on a linear regression model, to statistically estimate the hemodynamic activations in fNIRS data sets. The main concern guiding the algorithm development was the minimization of assumptions and approximations made on the data set for the application of statistical tests. Further, we propose a K-means method to cluster fNIRS data (i.e. channels) as activated or not activated. The methods were validated both on simulated and in vivo fNIRS data. A time domain (TD) fNIRS technique was preferred because of its high performances in discriminating cortical activation and superficial physiological changes. However, the proposed method is also applicable to continuous wave or frequency domain fNIRS data sets. PMID:25780751

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Systems via Multiple Indices based on Statistical Moments of Model Outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guadagnini, A.; Riva, M.; Dell'Oca, A.

2017-12-01

We propose to ground sensitivity of uncertain parameters of environmental models on a set of indices based on the main (statistical) moments, i.e., mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis, of the probability density function (pdf) of a target model output. This enables us to perform Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) of a model in terms of multiple statistical moments and yields a quantification of the impact of model parameters on features driving the shape of the pdf of model output. Our GSA approach includes the possibility of being coupled with the construction of a reduced complexity model that allows approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. We demonstrate our approach through a variety of test cases. These include a commonly used analytical benchmark, a simplified model representing pumping in a coastal aquifer, a laboratory-scale tracer experiment, and the migration of fracturing fluid through a naturally fractured reservoir (source) to reach an overlying formation (target). Our strategy allows discriminating the relative importance of model parameters to the four statistical moments considered. We also provide an appraisal of the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through the selected surrogate model. Our results suggest that one might need to construct a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The methodological framework we propose can assist the development of analysis techniques targeted to model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

Statistical Models for Predicting Automobile Driving Postures for Men and Women Including Effects of Age.

PubMed

Park, Jangwoon; Ebert, Sheila M; Reed, Matthew P; Hallman, Jason J

2016-03-01

Previously published statistical models of driving posture have been effective for vehicle design but have not taken into account the effects of age. The present study developed new statistical models for predicting driving posture. Driving postures of 90 U.S. drivers with a wide range of age and body size were measured in laboratory mockup in nine package conditions. Posture-prediction models for female and male drivers were separately developed by employing a stepwise regression technique using age, body dimensions, vehicle package conditions, and two-way interactions, among other variables. Driving posture was significantly associated with age, and the effects of other variables depended on age. A set of posture-prediction models is presented for women and men. The results are compared with a previously developed model. The present study is the first study of driver posture to include a large cohort of older drivers and the first to report a significant effect of age. The posture-prediction models can be used to position computational human models or crash-test dummies for vehicle design and assessment. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Study of photon correlation techniques for processing of laser velocimeter signals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mayo, W. T., Jr.

1977-01-01

The objective was to provide the theory and a system design for a new type of photon counting processor for low level dual scatter laser velocimeter (LV) signals which would be capable of both the first order measurements of mean flow and turbulence intensity and also the second order time statistics: cross correlation auto correlation, and related spectra. A general Poisson process model for low level LV signals and noise which is valid from the photon-resolved regime all the way to the limiting case of nonstationary Gaussian noise was used. Computer simulation algorithms and higher order statistical moment analysis of Poisson processes were derived and applied to the analysis of photon correlation techniques. A system design using a unique dual correlate and subtract frequency discriminator technique is postulated and analyzed. Expectation analysis indicates that the objective measurements are feasible.

Privacy enhancing techniques - the key to secure communication and management of clinical and genomic data.

PubMed

De Moor, G J E; Claerhout, B; De Meyer, F

2003-01-01

To introduce some of the privacy protection problems related to genomics based medicine and to highlight the relevance of Trusted Third Parties (TTPs) and of Privacy Enhancing Techniques (PETs) in the restricted context of clinical research and statistics. Practical approaches based on two different pseudonymisation models, both for batch and interactive data collection and exchange, are described and analysed. The growing need of managing both clinical and genetic data raises important legal and ethical challenges. Protecting human rights in the realm of privacy, while optimising research potential and other statistical activities is a challenge that can easily be overcome with the assistance of a trust service provider offering advanced privacy enabling/enhancing solutions. As such, the use of pseudonymisation and other innovative Privacy Enhancing Techniques can unlock valuable data sources.

Three-dimensional accuracy of different correction methods for cast implant bars

PubMed Central

Kwon, Ji-Yung; Kim, Chang-Whe; Lim, Young-Jun; Kwon, Ho-Beom

2014-01-01

PURPOSE The aim of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy of three techniques for correction of cast implant bars. MATERIALS AND METHODS Thirty cast implant bars were fabricated on a metal master model. All cast implant bars were sectioned at 5 mm from the left gold cylinder using a disk of 0.3 mm thickness, and then each group of ten specimens was corrected by gas-air torch soldering, laser welding, and additional casting technique. Three dimensional evaluation including horizontal, vertical, and twisting measurements was based on measurement and comparison of (1) gap distances of the right abutment replica-gold cylinder interface at buccal, distal, lingual side, (2) changes of bar length, and (3) axis angle changes of the right gold cylinders at the step of the post-correction measurements on the three groups with a contact and non-contact coordinate measuring machine. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and paired t-test were performed at the significance level of 5%. RESULTS Gap distances of the cast implant bars after correction procedure showed no statistically significant difference among groups. Changes in bar length between pre-casting and post-correction measurement were statistically significance among groups. Axis angle changes of the right gold cylinders were not statistically significance among groups. CONCLUSION There was no statistical significance among three techniques in horizontal, vertical and axial errors. But, gas-air torch soldering technique showed the most consistent and accurate trend in the correction of implant bar error. However, Laser welding technique, showed a large mean and standard deviation in vertical and twisting measurement and might be technique-sensitive method. PMID:24605205

User Selection Criteria of Airspace Designs in Flexible Airspace Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Hwasoo E.; Lee, Paul U.; Jung, Jaewoo; Lai, Chok Fung

2011-01-01

A method for identifying global aerodynamic models from flight data in an efficient manner is explained and demonstrated. A novel experiment design technique was used to obtain dynamic flight data over a range of flight conditions with a single flight maneuver. Multivariate polynomials and polynomial splines were used with orthogonalization techniques and statistical modeling metrics to synthesize global nonlinear aerodynamic models directly and completely from flight data alone. Simulation data and flight data from a subscale twin-engine jet transport aircraft were used to demonstrate the techniques. Results showed that global multivariate nonlinear aerodynamic dependencies could be accurately identified using flight data from a single maneuver. Flight-derived global aerodynamic model structures, model parameter estimates, and associated uncertainties were provided for all six nondimensional force and moment coefficients for the test aircraft. These models were combined with a propulsion model identified from engine ground test data to produce a high-fidelity nonlinear flight simulation very efficiently. Prediction testing using a multi-axis maneuver showed that the identified global model accurately predicted aircraft responses.

Comparison of Logistic Regression and Random Forests techniques for shallow landslide susceptibility assessment in Giampilieri (NE Sicily, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigila, Alessandro; Iadanza, Carla; Esposito, Carlo; Scarascia-Mugnozza, Gabriele

2015-11-01

The aim of this work is to define reliable susceptibility models for shallow landslides using Logistic Regression and Random Forests multivariate statistical techniques. The study area, located in North-East Sicily, was hit on October 1st 2009 by a severe rainstorm (225 mm of cumulative rainfall in 7 h) which caused flash floods and more than 1000 landslides. Several small villages, such as Giampilieri, were hit with 31 fatalities, 6 missing persons and damage to buildings and transportation infrastructures. Landslides, mainly types such as earth and debris translational slides evolving into debris flows, were triggered on steep slopes and involved colluvium and regolith materials which cover the underlying metamorphic bedrock. The work has been carried out with the following steps: i) realization of a detailed event landslide inventory map through field surveys coupled with observation of high resolution aerial colour orthophoto; ii) identification of landslide source areas; iii) data preparation of landslide controlling factors and descriptive statistics based on a bivariate method (Frequency Ratio) to get an initial overview on existing relationships between causative factors and shallow landslide source areas; iv) choice of criteria for the selection and sizing of the mapping unit; v) implementation of 5 multivariate statistical susceptibility models based on Logistic Regression and Random Forests techniques and focused on landslide source areas; vi) evaluation of the influence of sample size and type of sampling on results and performance of the models; vii) evaluation of the predictive capabilities of the models using ROC curve, AUC and contingency tables; viii) comparison of model results and obtained susceptibility maps; and ix) analysis of temporal variation of landslide susceptibility related to input parameter changes. Models based on Logistic Regression and Random Forests have demonstrated excellent predictive capabilities. Land use and wildfire variables were found to have a strong control on the occurrence of very rapid shallow landslides.

Spatial diffusion of influenza outbreak-related climate factors in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand.

PubMed

Nakapan, Supachai; Tripathi, Nitin Kumar; Tipdecho, Taravudh; Souris, Marc

2012-10-24

Influenza is one of the most important leading causes of respiratory illness in the countries located in the tropical areas of South East Asia and Thailand. In this study the climate factors associated with influenza incidence in Chiang Mai Province, Northern Thailand, were investigated. Identification of factors responsible for influenza outbreaks and the mapping of potential risk areas in Chiang Mai are long overdue. This work examines the association between yearly climate patterns between 2001 and 2008 and influenza outbreaks in the Chiang Mai Province. The climatic factors included the amount of rainfall, percent of rainy days, relative humidity, maximum, minimum temperatures and temperature difference. The study develops a statistical analysis to quantitatively assess the relationship between climate and influenza outbreaks and then evaluate its suitability for predicting influenza outbreaks. A multiple linear regression technique was used to fit the statistical model. The Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques were used in mapping the spatial diffusion of influenza risk zones. The results show that there is a significance correlation between influenza outbreaks and climate factors for the majority of the studied area. A statistical analysis was conducted to assess the validity of the model comparing model outputs and actual outbreaks.

Weighted Statistical Binning: Enabling Statistically Consistent Genome-Scale Phylogenetic Analyses

PubMed Central

Bayzid, Md Shamsuzzoha; Mirarab, Siavash; Boussau, Bastien; Warnow, Tandy

2015-01-01

Because biological processes can result in different loci having different evolutionary histories, species tree estimation requires multiple loci from across multiple genomes. While many processes can result in discord between gene trees and species trees, incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), modeled by the multi-species coalescent, is considered to be a dominant cause for gene tree heterogeneity. Coalescent-based methods have been developed to estimate species trees, many of which operate by combining estimated gene trees, and so are called "summary methods". Because summary methods are generally fast (and much faster than more complicated coalescent-based methods that co-estimate gene trees and species trees), they have become very popular techniques for estimating species trees from multiple loci. However, recent studies have established that summary methods can have reduced accuracy in the presence of gene tree estimation error, and also that many biological datasets have substantial gene tree estimation error, so that summary methods may not be highly accurate in biologically realistic conditions. Mirarab et al. (Science 2014) presented the "statistical binning" technique to improve gene tree estimation in multi-locus analyses, and showed that it improved the accuracy of MP-EST, one of the most popular coalescent-based summary methods. Statistical binning, which uses a simple heuristic to evaluate "combinability" and then uses the larger sets of genes to re-calculate gene trees, has good empirical performance, but using statistical binning within a phylogenomic pipeline does not have the desirable property of being statistically consistent. We show that weighting the re-calculated gene trees by the bin sizes makes statistical binning statistically consistent under the multispecies coalescent, and maintains the good empirical performance. Thus, "weighted statistical binning" enables highly accurate genome-scale species tree estimation, and is also statistically consistent under the multi-species coalescent model. New data used in this study are available at DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.1411146, and the software is available at https://github.com/smirarab/binning. PMID:26086579

Strengthen forensic entomology in court--the need for data exploration and the validation of a generalised additive mixed model.

PubMed

Baqué, Michèle; Amendt, Jens

2013-01-01

Developmental data of juvenile blow flies (Diptera: Calliphoridae) are typically used to calculate the age of immature stages found on or around a corpse and thus to estimate a minimum post-mortem interval (PMI(min)). However, many of those data sets don't take into account that immature blow flies grow in a non-linear fashion. Linear models do not supply a sufficient reliability on age estimates and may even lead to an erroneous determination of the PMI(min). According to the Daubert standard and the need for improvements in forensic science, new statistic tools like smoothing methods and mixed models allow the modelling of non-linear relationships and expand the field of statistical analyses. The present study introduces into the background and application of these statistical techniques by analysing a model which describes the development of the forensically important blow fly Calliphora vicina at different temperatures. The comparison of three statistical methods (linear regression, generalised additive modelling and generalised additive mixed modelling) clearly demonstrates that only the latter provided regression parameters that reflect the data adequately. We focus explicitly on both the exploration of the data--to assure their quality and to show the importance of checking it carefully prior to conducting the statistical tests--and the validation of the resulting models. Hence, we present a common method for evaluating and testing forensic entomological data sets by using for the first time generalised additive mixed models.

Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cuschieri, J. M.

1987-01-01

Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

JIGSAW: Preference-directed, co-operative scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Linden, Theodore A.; Gaw, David

1992-01-01

Techniques that enable humans and machines to cooperate in the solution of complex scheduling problems have evolved out of work on the daily allocation and scheduling of Tactical Air Force resources. A generalized, formal model of these applied techniques is being developed. It is called JIGSAW by analogy with the multi-agent, constructive process used when solving jigsaw puzzles. JIGSAW begins from this analogy and extends it by propagating local preferences into global statistics that dynamically influence the value and variable ordering decisions. The statistical projections also apply to abstract resources and time periods--allowing more opportunities to find a successful variable ordering by reserving abstract resources and deferring the choice of a specific resource or time period.

Treated cabin acoustic prediction using statistical energy analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoerkie, Charles A.; Ingraham, Steven T.; Moore, James A.

1987-01-01

The application of statistical energy analysis (SEA) to the modeling and design of helicopter cabin interior noise control treatment is demonstrated. The information presented here is obtained from work sponsored at NASA Langley for the development of analytic modeling techniques and the basic understanding of cabin noise. Utility and executive interior models are developed directly from existing S-76 aircraft designs. The relative importance of panel transmission loss (TL), acoustic leakage, and absorption to the control of cabin noise is shown using the SEA modeling parameters. It is shown that the major cabin noise improvement below 1000 Hz comes from increased panel TL, while above 1000 Hz it comes from reduced acoustic leakage and increased absorption in the cabin and overhead cavities.

Decision Tree Approach for Soil Liquefaction Assessment

PubMed Central

Gandomi, Amir H.; Fridline, Mark M.; Roke, David A.

2013-01-01

In the current study, the performances of some decision tree (DT) techniques are evaluated for postearthquake soil liquefaction assessment. A database containing 620 records of seismic parameters and soil properties is used in this study. Three decision tree techniques are used here in two different ways, considering statistical and engineering points of view, to develop decision rules. The DT results are compared to the logistic regression (LR) model. The results of this study indicate that the DTs not only successfully predict liquefaction but they can also outperform the LR model. The best DT models are interpreted and evaluated based on an engineering point of view. PMID:24489498

Decision tree approach for soil liquefaction assessment.

PubMed

Gandomi, Amir H; Fridline, Mark M; Roke, David A

2013-01-01

In the current study, the performances of some decision tree (DT) techniques are evaluated for postearthquake soil liquefaction assessment. A database containing 620 records of seismic parameters and soil properties is used in this study. Three decision tree techniques are used here in two different ways, considering statistical and engineering points of view, to develop decision rules. The DT results are compared to the logistic regression (LR) model. The results of this study indicate that the DTs not only successfully predict liquefaction but they can also outperform the LR model. The best DT models are interpreted and evaluated based on an engineering point of view.

In defence of model-based inference in phylogeography

PubMed Central

Beaumont, Mark A.; Nielsen, Rasmus; Robert, Christian; Hey, Jody; Gaggiotti, Oscar; Knowles, Lacey; Estoup, Arnaud; Panchal, Mahesh; Corander, Jukka; Hickerson, Mike; Sisson, Scott A.; Fagundes, Nelson; Chikhi, Lounès; Beerli, Peter; Vitalis, Renaud; Cornuet, Jean-Marie; Huelsenbeck, John; Foll, Matthieu; Yang, Ziheng; Rousset, Francois; Balding, David; Excoffier, Laurent

2017-01-01

Recent papers have promoted the view that model-based methods in general, and those based on Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) in particular, are flawed in a number of ways, and are therefore inappropriate for the analysis of phylogeographic data. These papers further argue that Nested Clade Phylogeographic Analysis (NCPA) offers the best approach in statistical phylogeography. In order to remove the confusion and misconceptions introduced by these papers, we justify and explain the reasoning behind model-based inference. We argue that ABC is a statistically valid approach, alongside other computational statistical techniques that have been successfully used to infer parameters and compare models in population genetics. We also examine the NCPA method and highlight numerous deficiencies, either when used with single or multiple loci. We further show that the ages of clades are carelessly used to infer ages of demographic events, that these ages are estimated under a simple model of panmixia and population stationarity but are then used under different and unspecified models to test hypotheses, a usage the invalidates these testing procedures. We conclude by encouraging researchers to study and use model-based inference in population genetics. PMID:29284924

Spatial modeling of environmental vulnerability of marine finfish aquaculture using GIS-based neuro-fuzzy techniques.

PubMed

Navas, Juan Moreno; Telfer, Trevor C; Ross, Lindsay G

2011-08-01

Combining GIS with neuro-fuzzy modeling has the advantage that expert scientific knowledge in coastal aquaculture activities can be incorporated into a geospatial model to classify areas particularly vulnerable to pollutants. Data on the physical environment and its suitability for aquaculture in an Irish fjard, which is host to a number of different aquaculture activities, were derived from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and GIS models. Subsequent incorporation into environmental vulnerability models, based on neuro-fuzzy techniques, highlighted localities particularly vulnerable to aquaculture development. The models produced an overall classification accuracy of 85.71%, with a Kappa coefficient of agreement of 81%, and were sensitive to different input parameters. A statistical comparison between vulnerability scores and nitrogen concentrations in sediment associated with salmon cages showed good correlation. Neuro-fuzzy techniques within GIS modeling classify vulnerability of coastal regions appropriately and have a role in policy decisions for aquaculture site selection. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the decision accuracy and speed of clinical data visualizations.

PubMed

Pieczkiewicz, David S; Finkelstein, Stanley M

2010-01-01

Clinicians face an increasing volume of biomedical data. Assessing the efficacy of systems that enable accurate and timely clinical decision making merits corresponding attention. This paper discusses the multiple-reader multiple-case (MRMC) experimental design and linear mixed models as means of assessing and comparing decision accuracy and latency (time) for decision tasks in which clinician readers must interpret visual displays of data. These tools can assess and compare decision accuracy and latency (time). These experimental and statistical techniques, used extensively in radiology imaging studies, offer a number of practical and analytic advantages over more traditional quantitative methods such as percent-correct measurements and ANOVAs, and are recommended for their statistical efficiency and generalizability. An example analysis using readily available, free, and commercial statistical software is provided as an appendix. While these techniques are not appropriate for all evaluation questions, they can provide a valuable addition to the evaluative toolkit of medical informatics research.

Conducting field studies for testing pesticide leaching models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Charles N.; Parrish, Rudolph S.; Brown, David S.

1990-01-01

A variety of predictive models are being applied to evaluate the transport and transformation of pesticides in the environment. These include well known models such as the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Risk of Unsaturated-Saturated Transport and Transformation Interactions for Chemical Concentrations Model (RUSTIC) and the Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems Model (GLEAMS). The potentially large impacts of using these models as tools for developing pesticide management strategies and regulatory decisions necessitates development of sound model validation protocols. This paper offers guidance on many of the theoretical and practical problems encountered in the design and implementation of field-scale model validation studies. Recommendations are provided for site selection and characterization, test compound selection, data needs, measurement techniques, statistical design considerations and sampling techniques. A strategy is provided for quantitatively testing models using field measurements.

Modern modeling techniques had limited external validity in predicting mortality from traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Nieboer, Daan; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-10-01

Prediction of medical outcomes may potentially benefit from using modern statistical modeling techniques. We aimed to externally validate modeling strategies for prediction of 6-month mortality of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury (TBI) with predictor sets of increasing complexity. We analyzed individual patient data from 15 different studies including 11,026 TBI patients. We consecutively considered a core set of predictors (age, motor score, and pupillary reactivity), an extended set with computed tomography scan characteristics, and a further extension with two laboratory measurements (glucose and hemoglobin). With each of these sets, we predicted 6-month mortality using default settings with five statistical modeling techniques: logistic regression (LR), classification and regression trees, random forests (RFs), support vector machines (SVM) and neural nets. For external validation, a model developed on one of the 15 data sets was applied to each of the 14 remaining sets. This process was repeated 15 times for a total of 630 validations. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the discriminative ability of the models. For the most complex predictor set, the LR models performed best (median validated AUC value, 0.757), followed by RF and support vector machine models (median validated AUC value, 0.735 and 0.732, respectively). With each predictor set, the classification and regression trees models showed poor performance (median validated AUC value, <0.7). The variability in performance across the studies was smallest for the RF- and LR-based models (inter quartile range for validated AUC values from 0.07 to 0.10). In the area of predicting mortality from TBI, nonlinear and nonadditive effects are not pronounced enough to make modern prediction methods beneficial. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Classical Statistics and Statistical Learning in Imaging Neuroscience

PubMed Central

Bzdok, Danilo

2017-01-01

Brain-imaging research has predominantly generated insight by means of classical statistics, including regression-type analyses and null-hypothesis testing using t-test and ANOVA. Throughout recent years, statistical learning methods enjoy increasing popularity especially for applications in rich and complex data, including cross-validated out-of-sample prediction using pattern classification and sparsity-inducing regression. This concept paper discusses the implications of inferential justifications and algorithmic methodologies in common data analysis scenarios in neuroimaging. It is retraced how classical statistics and statistical learning originated from different historical contexts, build on different theoretical foundations, make different assumptions, and evaluate different outcome metrics to permit differently nuanced conclusions. The present considerations should help reduce current confusion between model-driven classical hypothesis testing and data-driven learning algorithms for investigating the brain with imaging techniques. PMID:29056896

Image statistics underlying natural texture selectivity of neurons in macaque V4

PubMed Central

Okazawa, Gouki; Tajima, Satohiro; Komatsu, Hidehiko

2015-01-01

Our daily visual experiences are inevitably linked to recognizing the rich variety of textures. However, how the brain encodes and differentiates a plethora of natural textures remains poorly understood. Here, we show that many neurons in macaque V4 selectively encode sparse combinations of higher-order image statistics to represent natural textures. We systematically explored neural selectivity in a high-dimensional texture space by combining texture synthesis and efficient-sampling techniques. This yielded parameterized models for individual texture-selective neurons. The models provided parsimonious but powerful predictors for each neuron’s preferred textures using a sparse combination of image statistics. As a whole population, the neuronal tuning was distributed in a way suitable for categorizing textures and quantitatively predicts human ability to discriminate textures. Together, we suggest that the collective representation of visual image statistics in V4 plays a key role in organizing the natural texture perception. PMID:25535362

Reducing the Complexity of an Agent-Based Local Heroin Market Model

PubMed Central

Heard, Daniel; Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.

2014-01-01

This project explores techniques for reducing the complexity of an agent-based model (ABM). The analysis involved a model developed from the ethnographic research of Dr. Lee Hoffer in the Larimer area heroin market, which involved drug users, drug sellers, homeless individuals and police. The authors used statistical techniques to create a reduced version of the original model which maintained simulation fidelity while reducing computational complexity. This involved identifying key summary quantities of individual customer behavior as well as overall market activity and replacing some agents with probability distributions and regressions. The model was then extended to allow external market interventions in the form of police busts. Extensions of this research perspective, as well as its strengths and limitations, are discussed. PMID:25025132

A system identification technique based on the random decrement signatures. Part 2: Experimental results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bedewi, Nabih E.; Yang, Jackson C. S.

1987-01-01

Identification of the system parameters of a randomly excited structure may be treated using a variety of statistical techniques. Of all these techniques, the Random Decrement is unique in that it provides the homogeneous component of the system response. Using this quality, a system identification technique was developed based on a least-squares fit of the signatures to estimate the mass, damping, and stiffness matrices of a linear randomly excited system. The results of an experiment conducted on an offshore platform scale model to verify the validity of the technique and to demonstrate its application in damage detection are presented.

A Dynamic Intrusion Detection System Based on Multivariate Hotelling's T2 Statistics Approach for Network Environments

PubMed Central

Avalappampatty Sivasamy, Aneetha; Sundan, Bose

2015-01-01

The ever expanding communication requirements in today's world demand extensive and efficient network systems with equally efficient and reliable security features integrated for safe, confident, and secured communication and data transfer. Providing effective security protocols for any network environment, therefore, assumes paramount importance. Attempts are made continuously for designing more efficient and dynamic network intrusion detection models. In this work, an approach based on Hotelling's T2 method, a multivariate statistical analysis technique, has been employed for intrusion detection, especially in network environments. Components such as preprocessing, multivariate statistical analysis, and attack detection have been incorporated in developing the multivariate Hotelling's T2 statistical model and necessary profiles have been generated based on the T-square distance metrics. With a threshold range obtained using the central limit theorem, observed traffic profiles have been classified either as normal or attack types. Performance of the model, as evaluated through validation and testing using KDD Cup'99 dataset, has shown very high detection rates for all classes with low false alarm rates. Accuracy of the model presented in this work, in comparison with the existing models, has been found to be much better. PMID:26357668

A Dynamic Intrusion Detection System Based on Multivariate Hotelling's T2 Statistics Approach for Network Environments.

PubMed

Sivasamy, Aneetha Avalappampatty; Sundan, Bose

2015-01-01

The ever expanding communication requirements in today's world demand extensive and efficient network systems with equally efficient and reliable security features integrated for safe, confident, and secured communication and data transfer. Providing effective security protocols for any network environment, therefore, assumes paramount importance. Attempts are made continuously for designing more efficient and dynamic network intrusion detection models. In this work, an approach based on Hotelling's T(2) method, a multivariate statistical analysis technique, has been employed for intrusion detection, especially in network environments. Components such as preprocessing, multivariate statistical analysis, and attack detection have been incorporated in developing the multivariate Hotelling's T(2) statistical model and necessary profiles have been generated based on the T-square distance metrics. With a threshold range obtained using the central limit theorem, observed traffic profiles have been classified either as normal or attack types. Performance of the model, as evaluated through validation and testing using KDD Cup'99 dataset, has shown very high detection rates for all classes with low false alarm rates. Accuracy of the model presented in this work, in comparison with the existing models, has been found to be much better.

Gaussian closure technique applied to the hysteretic Bouc model with non-zero mean white noise excitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waubke, Holger; Kasess, Christian H.

2016-11-01

Devices that emit structure-borne sound are commonly decoupled by elastic components to shield the environment from acoustical noise and vibrations. The elastic elements often have a hysteretic behavior that is typically neglected. In order to take hysteretic behavior into account, Bouc developed a differential equation for such materials, especially joints made of rubber or equipped with dampers. In this work, the Bouc model is solved by means of the Gaussian closure technique based on the Kolmogorov equation. Kolmogorov developed a method to derive probability density functions for arbitrary explicit first-order vector differential equations under white noise excitation using a partial differential equation of a multivariate conditional probability distribution. Up to now no analytical solution of the Kolmogorov equation in conjunction with the Bouc model exists. Therefore a wide range of approximate solutions, especially the statistical linearization, were developed. Using the Gaussian closure technique that is an approximation to the Kolmogorov equation assuming a multivariate Gaussian distribution an analytic solution is derived in this paper for the Bouc model. For the stationary case the two methods yield equivalent results, however, in contrast to statistical linearization the presented solution allows to calculate the transient behavior explicitly. Further, stationary case leads to an implicit set of equations that can be solved iteratively with a small number of iterations and without instabilities for specific parameter sets.

Models and Measurements for Multi-Layer Displays

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-07-26

measurements. The observed statistical variation in the data results from laser speckle. No systematic uncertainties, which are expected to be less...difference metric. There are also some powerful statistical techniques to deal with this type of experiment, although it would take a lot of time to...hTraceWidth,vTraceWidth] in 10s of micrometers % Transitor sixe is vector : [hTransistorSize,vTransistorSize] in 10s of micrometers %Image is plotted if

A comparison of methods for assessing power output in non-uniform onshore wind farms

DOE PAGES

Staid, Andrea; VerHulst, Claire; Guikema, Seth D.

2017-10-02

Wind resource assessments are used to estimate a wind farm's power production during the planning process. It is important that these estimates are accurate, as they can impact financing agreements, transmission planning, and environmental targets. Here, we analyze the challenges in wind power estimation for onshore farms. Turbine wake effects are a strong determinant of farm power production. With given input wind conditions, wake losses typically cause downstream turbines to produce significantly less power than upstream turbines. These losses have been modeled extensively and are well understood under certain conditions. Most notably, validation of different model types has favored offshoremore » farms. Models that capture the dynamics of offshore wind conditions do not necessarily perform equally as well for onshore wind farms. We analyze the capabilities of several different methods for estimating wind farm power production in 2 onshore farms with non-uniform layouts. We compare the Jensen model to a number of statistical models, to meteorological downscaling techniques, and to using no model at all. In conclusion, we show that the complexities of some onshore farms result in wind conditions that are not accurately modeled by the Jensen wake decay techniques and that statistical methods have some strong advantages in practice.« less

A comparison of methods for assessing power output in non-uniform onshore wind farms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staid, Andrea; VerHulst, Claire; Guikema, Seth D.

Wind resource assessments are used to estimate a wind farm's power production during the planning process. It is important that these estimates are accurate, as they can impact financing agreements, transmission planning, and environmental targets. Here, we analyze the challenges in wind power estimation for onshore farms. Turbine wake effects are a strong determinant of farm power production. With given input wind conditions, wake losses typically cause downstream turbines to produce significantly less power than upstream turbines. These losses have been modeled extensively and are well understood under certain conditions. Most notably, validation of different model types has favored offshoremore » farms. Models that capture the dynamics of offshore wind conditions do not necessarily perform equally as well for onshore wind farms. We analyze the capabilities of several different methods for estimating wind farm power production in 2 onshore farms with non-uniform layouts. We compare the Jensen model to a number of statistical models, to meteorological downscaling techniques, and to using no model at all. In conclusion, we show that the complexities of some onshore farms result in wind conditions that are not accurately modeled by the Jensen wake decay techniques and that statistical methods have some strong advantages in practice.« less

Atmospheric Tracer Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasibhatla, P.

2004-12-01

In recent years, there has been an increasing emphasis on the use of Bayesian statistical estimation techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric trace gas sources and sinks. The applications have been varied in terms of the particular species of interest, as well as in terms of the spatial and temporal resolution of the estimated fluxes. However, one common characteristic has been the use of relatively simple statistical models for describing the measurement and chemical transport model error statistics and prior source statistics. For example, multivariate normal probability distribution functions (pdfs) are commonly used to model these quantities and inverse source estimates are derived for fixed values of pdf paramaters. While the advantage of this approach is that closed form analytical solutions for the a posteriori pdfs of interest are available, it is worth exploring Bayesian analysis approaches which allow for a more general treatment of error and prior source statistics. Here, we present an application of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to an atmospheric tracer inversion problem to demonstrate how more gereral statistical models for errors can be incorporated into the analysis in a relatively straightforward manner. The MCMC approach to Bayesian analysis, which has found wide application in a variety of fields, is a statistical simulation approach that involves computing moments of interest of the a posteriori pdf by efficiently sampling this pdf. The specific inverse problem that we focus on is the annual mean CO2 source/sink estimation problem considered by the TransCom3 project. TransCom3 was a collaborative effort involving various modeling groups and followed a common modeling and analysis protocoal. As such, this problem provides a convenient case study to demonstrate the applicability of the MCMC methodology to atmospheric tracer source/sink estimation problems.

Evaluation of the Williams-type spring wheat model in North Dakota and Minnesota

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leduc, S. (Principal Investigator)

1982-01-01

The Williams type model, developed similarly to previous models of C.V.D. Williams, uses monthly temperature and precipitation data as well as soil and topological variables to predict the yield of the spring wheat crop. The models are statistically developed using the regression technique. Eight model characteristics are examined in the evaluation of the model. Evaluation is at the crop reporting district level, the state level and for the entire region. A ten year bootstrap test was the basis of the statistical evaluation. The accuracy and current indication of modeled yield reliability could show improvement. There is great variability in the bias measured over the districts, but there is a slight overall positive bias. The model estimates for the east central crop reporting district in Minnesota are not accurate. The estimate of yield for 1974 were inaccurate for all of the models.

Statistical analysis of lightning electric field measured under Malaysian condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salimi, Behnam; Mehranzamir, Kamyar; Abdul-Malek, Zulkurnain

2014-02-01

Lightning is an electrical discharge during thunderstorms that can be either within clouds (Inter-Cloud), or between clouds and ground (Cloud-Ground). The Lightning characteristics and their statistical information are the foundation for the design of lightning protection system as well as for the calculation of lightning radiated fields. Nowadays, there are various techniques to detect lightning signals and to determine various parameters produced by a lightning flash. Each technique provides its own claimed performances. In this paper, the characteristics of captured broadband electric fields generated by cloud-to-ground lightning discharges in South of Malaysia are analyzed. A total of 130 cloud-to-ground lightning flashes from 3 separate thunderstorm events (each event lasts for about 4-5 hours) were examined. Statistical analyses of the following signal parameters were presented: preliminary breakdown pulse train time duration, time interval between preliminary breakdowns and return stroke, multiplicity of stroke, and percentages of single stroke only. The BIL model is also introduced to characterize the lightning signature patterns. Observations on the statistical analyses show that about 79% of lightning signals fit well with the BIL model. The maximum and minimum of preliminary breakdown time duration of the observed lightning signals are 84 ms and 560 us, respectively. The findings of the statistical results show that 7.6% of the flashes were single stroke flashes, and the maximum number of strokes recorded was 14 multiple strokes per flash. A preliminary breakdown signature in more than 95% of the flashes can be identified.

Seismic activity prediction using computational intelligence techniques in northern Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asim, Khawaja M.; Awais, Muhammad; Martínez-Álvarez, F.; Iqbal, Talat

2017-10-01

Earthquake prediction study is carried out for the region of northern Pakistan. The prediction methodology includes interdisciplinary interaction of seismology and computational intelligence. Eight seismic parameters are computed based upon the past earthquakes. Predictive ability of these eight seismic parameters is evaluated in terms of information gain, which leads to the selection of six parameters to be used in prediction. Multiple computationally intelligent models have been developed for earthquake prediction using selected seismic parameters. These models include feed-forward neural network, recurrent neural network, random forest, multi layer perceptron, radial basis neural network, and support vector machine. The performance of every prediction model is evaluated and McNemar's statistical test is applied to observe the statistical significance of computational methodologies. Feed-forward neural network shows statistically significant predictions along with accuracy of 75% and positive predictive value of 78% in context of northern Pakistan.

Annual Research Briefs, 1987

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moin, Parviz; Reynolds, William C.

1988-01-01

Lagrangian techniques have found widespread application to the prediction and understanding of turbulent transport phenomena and have yielded satisfactory results for different cases of shear flow problems. However, it must be kept in mind that in most experiments what is really available are Eulerian statistics, and it is far from obvious how to extract from them the information relevant to the Lagrangian behavior of the flow; in consequence, Lagrangian models still include some hypothesis for which no adequate supporting evidence was until now available. Direct numerical simulation of turbulence offers a new way to obtain Lagrangian statistics and so verify the validity of the current predictive models and the accuracy of their results. After the pioneering work of Riley (Riley and Patterson, 1974) in the 70's, some such results have just appeared in the literature (Lee et al, Yeung and Pope). The present contribution follows in part similar lines, but focuses on two particle statistics and comparison with existing models.

Handling nonnormality and variance heterogeneity for quantitative sublethal toxicity tests.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian; Van der Vliet, Leana

2009-09-01

The advantages of using regression-based techniques to derive endpoints from environmental toxicity data are clear, and slowly, this superior analytical technique is gaining acceptance. As use of regression-based analysis becomes more widespread, some of the associated nuances and potential problems come into sharper focus. Looking at data sets that cover a broad spectrum of standard test species, we noticed that some model fits to data failed to meet two key assumptions-variance homogeneity and normality-that are necessary for correct statistical analysis via regression-based techniques. Failure to meet these assumptions often is caused by reduced variance at the concentrations showing severe adverse effects. Although commonly used with linear regression analysis, transformation of the response variable only is not appropriate when fitting data using nonlinear regression techniques. Through analysis of sample data sets, including Lemna minor, Eisenia andrei (terrestrial earthworm), and algae, we show that both the so-called Box-Cox transformation and use of the Poisson distribution can help to correct variance heterogeneity and nonnormality and so allow nonlinear regression analysis to be implemented. Both the Box-Cox transformation and the Poisson distribution can be readily implemented into existing protocols for statistical analysis. By correcting for nonnormality and variance heterogeneity, these two statistical tools can be used to encourage the transition to regression-based analysis and the depreciation of less-desirable and less-flexible analytical techniques, such as linear interpolation.

Smart climate ensemble exploring approaches: the example of climate impacts on air pollution in Europe.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lemaire, Vincent; Colette, Augustin; Menut, Laurent

2016-04-01

Because of its sensitivity to weather patterns, climate change will have an impact on air pollution so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projections. However, at present, such impact assessment lack multi-model ensemble approaches to address uncertainties because of the substantial computing cost. Therefore, as a preliminary step towards exploring large climate ensembles with air quality models, we developed an ensemble exploration technique in order to point out the climate models that should be investigated in priority. By using a training dataset from a deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed statistical models that could be used to estimate future air pollutant concentrations. Applying this statistical model to the whole EuroCordex ensemble of climate projection, we find a climate penalty for six subregions out of eight (Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). On the contrary, a climate benefit for PM2.5 was identified for three regions (Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy). The uncertainty of this statistical model challenges limits however the confidence we can attribute to associated quantitative projections. This technique allows however selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections to propose an adequate coverage of uncertainties. We are thereby proposing a smart ensemble exploration strategy that can also be used for other impacts studies beyond air quality.

Ozone data and mission sampling analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robbins, J. L.

1980-01-01

A methodology was developed to analyze discrete data obtained from the global distribution of ozone. Statistical analysis techniques were applied to describe the distribution of data variance in terms of empirical orthogonal functions and components of spherical harmonic models. The effects of uneven data distribution and missing data were considered. Data fill based on the autocorrelation structure of the data is described. Computer coding of the analysis techniques is included.

Logistic regression for risk factor modelling in stuttering research.

PubMed

Reed, Phil; Wu, Yaqionq

2013-06-01

To outline the uses of logistic regression and other statistical methods for risk factor analysis in the context of research on stuttering. The principles underlying the application of a logistic regression are illustrated, and the types of questions to which such a technique has been applied in the stuttering field are outlined. The assumptions and limitations of the technique are discussed with respect to existing stuttering research, and with respect to formulating appropriate research strategies to accommodate these considerations. Finally, some alternatives to the approach are briefly discussed. The way the statistical procedures are employed are demonstrated with some hypothetical data. Research into several practical issues concerning stuttering could benefit if risk factor modelling were used. Important examples are early diagnosis, prognosis (whether a child will recover or persist) and assessment of treatment outcome. After reading this article you will: (a) Summarize the situations in which logistic regression can be applied to a range of issues about stuttering; (b) Follow the steps in performing a logistic regression analysis; (c) Describe the assumptions of the logistic regression technique and the precautions that need to be checked when it is employed; (d) Be able to summarize its advantages over other techniques like estimation of group differences and simple regression. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effective techniques for the identification and accommodation of disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. D.

1989-01-01

The successful control of dynamic systems such as space stations, or launch vehicles, requires a controller design methodology that acknowledges and addresses the disruptive effects caused by external and internal disturbances that inevitably act on such systems. These disturbances, technically defined as uncontrollable inputs, typically vary with time in an uncertain manner and usually cannot be directly measured in real time. A relatively new non-statistical technique for modeling, and (on-line) identification, of those complex uncertain disturbances that are not as erratic and capricious as random noise is described. This technique applies to multi-input cases and to many of the practical disturbances associated with the control of space stations, or launch vehicles. Then, a collection of smart controller design techniques that allow controlled dynamic systems, with possible multi-input controls, to accommodate (cope with) such disturbances with extraordinary effectiveness are associated. These new smart controllers are designed by non-statistical techniques and typically turn out to be unconventional forms of dynamic linear controllers (compensators) with constant coefficients. The simplicity and reliability of linear, constant coefficient controllers is well-known in the aerospace field.

Application of artificial intelligence to the management of urological cancer.

PubMed

Abbod, Maysam F; Catto, James W F; Linkens, Derek A; Hamdy, Freddie C

2007-10-01

Artificial intelligence techniques, such as artificial neural networks, Bayesian belief networks and neuro-fuzzy modeling systems, are complex mathematical models based on the human neuronal structure and thinking. Such tools are capable of generating data driven models of biological systems without making assumptions based on statistical distributions. A large amount of study has been reported of the use of artificial intelligence in urology. We reviewed the basic concepts behind artificial intelligence techniques and explored the applications of this new dynamic technology in various aspects of urological cancer management. A detailed and systematic review of the literature was performed using the MEDLINE and Inspec databases to discover reports using artificial intelligence in urological cancer. The characteristics of machine learning and their implementation were described and reports of artificial intelligence use in urological cancer were reviewed. While most researchers in this field were found to focus on artificial neural networks to improve the diagnosis, staging and prognostic prediction of urological cancers, some groups are exploring other techniques, such as expert systems and neuro-fuzzy modeling systems. Compared to traditional regression statistics artificial intelligence methods appear to be accurate and more explorative for analyzing large data cohorts. Furthermore, they allow individualized prediction of disease behavior. Each artificial intelligence method has characteristics that make it suitable for different tasks. The lack of transparency of artificial neural networks hinders global scientific community acceptance of this method but this can be overcome by neuro-fuzzy modeling systems.

Different methodologies for sustainability of optimization techniques used in submerged and solid state fermentation.

PubMed

Ashok, Anup; Kumar, Devarai Santhosh

2017-10-01

Optimization techniques are considered as a part of nature's way of adjusting to the changes happening around it. There are different factors that establish the optimum working condition or the production of any value-added product. A model is accepted for a particular process after its sustainability has been verified on a statistical and analytical level. Optimization techniques can be divided into categories as statistical, nature inspired and artificial neural network each with its own benefits and usage in particular cases. A brief introduction about subcategories of different techniques that are available and their computational effectivity will be discussed. The main focus of the study revolves around the applicability of these techniques to any particular operation such as submerged fermentation (SmF) and solid state fermentation (SSF), their ability to produce secondary metabolites and the usefulness in the laboratory and industrial level. Primary studies to determine the enzyme activity of different microorganisms such as bacteria, fungi and yeast will also be discussed. l-Asparaginase, the most commonly used drugs in the treatment of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) shall be considered as an example, a short discussion on models used in the production by the processes of SmF and SSF will be discussed to understand the optimization techniques that are being dealt. It is expected that this discussion would help in determining the proper technique that can be used in running any optimization process for different purposes, and would help in making these processes less time-consuming with better output.

Comparison of Quadrapolar™ radiofrequency lesions produced by standard versus modified technique: an experimental model.

PubMed

Safakish, Ramin

2017-01-01

Lower back pain (LBP) is a global public health issue and is associated with substantial financial costs and loss of quality of life. Over the years, different literature has provided different statistics regarding the causes of the back pain. The following statistic is the closest estimation regarding our patient population. The sacroiliac (SI) joint pain is responsible for LBP in 18%-30% of individuals with LBP. Quadrapolar™ radiofrequency ablation, which involves ablation of the nerves of the SI joint using heat, is a commonly used treatment for SI joint pain. However, the standard Quadrapolar radiofrequency procedure is not always effective at ablating all the sensory nerves that cause the pain in the SI joint. One of the major limitations of the standard Quadrapolar radiofrequency procedure is that it produces small lesions of ~4 mm in diameter. Smaller lesions increase the likelihood of failure to ablate all nociceptive input. In this study, we compare the standard Quadrapolar radiofrequency ablation technique to a modified Quadrapolar ablation technique that has produced improved patient outcomes in our clinic. The methodology of the two techniques are compared. In addition, we compare results from an experimental model comparing the lesion sizes produced by the two techniques. Taken together, the findings from this study suggest that the modified Quadrapolar technique provides longer lasting relief for the back pain that is caused by SI joint dysfunction. A randomized controlled clinical trial is the next step required to quantify the difference in symptom relief and quality of life produced by the two techniques.

Bayesian component separation: The Planck experience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wehus, Ingunn Kathrine; Eriksen, Hans Kristian

2018-05-01

Bayesian component separation techniques have played a central role in the data reduction process of Planck. The most important strength of this approach is its global nature, in which a parametric and physical model is fitted to the data. Such physical modeling allows the user to constrain very general data models, and jointly probe cosmological, astrophysical and instrumental parameters. This approach also supports statistically robust goodness-of-fit tests in terms of data-minus-model residual maps, which are essential for identifying residual systematic effects in the data. The main challenges are high code complexity and computational cost. Whether or not these costs are justified for a given experiment depends on its final uncertainty budget. We therefore predict that the importance of Bayesian component separation techniques is likely to increase with time for intensity mapping experiments, similar to what has happened in the CMB field, as observational techniques mature, and their overall sensitivity improves.

SEPEM: A tool for statistical modeling the solar energetic particle environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crosby, Norma; Heynderickx, Daniel; Jiggens, Piers; Aran, Angels; Sanahuja, Blai; Truscott, Pete; Lei, Fan; Jacobs, Carla; Poedts, Stefaan; Gabriel, Stephen; Sandberg, Ingmar; Glover, Alexi; Hilgers, Alain

2015-07-01

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are a serious radiation hazard for spacecraft as well as a severe health risk to humans traveling in space. Indeed, accurate modeling of the SEP environment constitutes a priority requirement for astrophysics and solar system missions and for human exploration in space. The European Space Agency's Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) application server is a World Wide Web interface to a complete set of cross-calibrated data ranging from 1973 to 2013 as well as new SEP engineering models and tools. Both statistical and physical modeling techniques have been included, in order to cover the environment not only at 1 AU but also in the inner heliosphere ranging from 0.2 AU to 1.6 AU using a newly developed physics-based shock-and-particle model to simulate particle flux profiles of gradual SEP events. With SEPEM, SEP peak flux and integrated fluence statistics can be studied, as well as durations of high SEP flux periods. Furthermore, effects tools are also included to allow calculation of single event upset rate and radiation doses for a variety of engineering scenarios.

Slant path rain attenuation and path diversity statistics obtained through radar modeling of rain structure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldhirsh, J.

1984-01-01

Single and joint terminal slant path attenuation statistics at frequencies of 28.56 and 19.04 GHz have been derived, employing a radar data base obtained over a three-year period at Wallops Island, VA. Statistics were independently obtained for path elevation angles of 20, 45, and 90 deg for purposes of examining how elevation angles influences both single-terminal and joint probability distributions. Both diversity gains and autocorrelation function dependence on site spacing and elevation angles were determined employing the radar modeling results. Comparisons with other investigators are presented. An independent path elevation angle prediction technique was developed and demonstrated to fit well with the radar-derived single and joint terminal radar-derived cumulative fade distributions at various elevation angles.

Maxwell's color statistics: from reduction of visible errors to reduction to invisible molecules.

PubMed

Cat, Jordi

2014-12-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary and multi-disciplinary account of Maxwell's introduction of statistical models of molecules for the composition of gases. The account focuses on Maxwell's deployment of statistical models of data in his contemporaneous color researches as established in Cambridge mathematical physics, especially by Maxwell's seniors and mentors. The paper also argues that the cross-disciplinary, or cross-domain, transfer of resources from the natural and social sciences took place in both directions and relied on the complex intra-disciplinary, or intra-domain, dynamics of Maxwell's researches in natural sciences, in color theory, physical astronomy, electromagnetism and dynamical theory of gases, as well as involving a variety of types of communicating and mediating media, from material objects to concepts, techniques and institutions.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Utilization of an Enhanced Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) to Predict Daily Precipitation and Temperature in a Semi-Arid Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, S. R.; Hogue, T. S.

2011-12-01

Global climate models (GCMs) are primarily used to generate historical and future large-scale circulation patterns at a coarse resolution (typical order of 50,000 km2) and fail to capture climate variability at the ground level due to localized surface influences (i.e topography, marine, layer, land cover, etc). Their inability to accurately resolve these processes has led to the development of numerous 'downscaling' techniques. The goal of this study is to enhance statistical downscaling of daily precipitation and temperature for regions with heterogeneous land cover and topography. Our analysis was divided into two periods, historical (1961-2000) and contemporary (1980-2000), and tested using sixteen predictand combinations from four GCMs (GFDL CM2.0, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM-CM3 and MRI-CGCM2 3.2a. The Southern California area was separated into five county regions: Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange and San Diego. Principle component analysis (PCA) was performed on ground-based observations in order to (1) reduce the number of redundant gauges and minimize dimensionality and (2) cluster gauges that behave statistically similarly for post-analysis. Post-PCA analysis included extensive testing of predictor-predictand relationships using an enhanced canonical correlation analysis (ECCA). The ECCA includes obtaining the optimal predictand sets for all models within each spatial domain (county) as governed by daily and monthly overall statistics. Results show all models maintain mean annual and monthly behavior within each county and daily statistics are improved. The level of improvement highly depends on the vegetation extent within each county and the land-to-ocean ratio within the GCM spatial grid. The utilization of the entire historical period also leads to better statistical representation of observed daily precipitation. The validated ECCA technique is being applied to future climate scenarios distributed by the IPCC in order to provide forcing data for regional hydrologic models and assess future water resources in the Southern California region.

Multiple-Point statistics for stochastic modeling of aquifers, where do we stand?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renard, P.; Julien, S.

2017-12-01

In the last 20 years, multiple-point statistics have been a focus of much research, successes and disappointments. The aim of this geostatistical approach was to integrate geological information into stochastic models of aquifer heterogeneity to better represent the connectivity of high or low permeability structures in the underground. Many different algorithms (ENESIM, SNESIM, SIMPAT, CCSIM, QUILTING, IMPALA, DEESSE, FILTERSIM, HYPPS, etc.) have been and are still proposed. They are all based on the concept of a training data set from which spatial statistics are derived and used in a further step to generate conditional realizations. Some of these algorithms evaluate the statistics of the spatial patterns for every pixel, other techniques consider the statistics at the scale of a patch or a tile. While the method clearly succeeded in enabling modelers to generate realistic models, several issues are still the topic of debate both from a practical and theoretical point of view, and some issues such as training data set availability are often hindering the application of the method in practical situations. In this talk, the aim is to present a review of the status of these approaches both from a theoretical and practical point of view using several examples at different scales (from pore network to regional aquifer).

Bayesian Estimation in the One-Parameter Latent Trait Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-03-01

Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology , 1973, 26, 31-44. (a) Andersen, E. B. A goodness of fit test for the Rasch model. Psychometrika, 1973, 28...technique for estimating latent trait mental test parameters. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 1976, 36, 705-715. Lindley, D. V. The...Lord, F. M. An analysis of verbal Scholastic Aptitude Test using Birnbaum’s three-parameter logistic model. Educational and Psychological

An Investigation of the Fit of Linear Regression Models to Data from an SAT[R] Validity Study. Research Report 2011-3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kobrin, Jennifer L.; Sinharay, Sandip; Haberman, Shelby J.; Chajewski, Michael

2011-01-01

This study examined the adequacy of a multiple linear regression model for predicting first-year college grade point average (FYGPA) using SAT[R] scores and high school grade point average (HSGPA). A variety of techniques, both graphical and statistical, were used to examine if it is possible to improve on the linear regression model. The results…

Can we use Earth Observations to improve monthly water level forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2017-12-01

Dynamical-statistical hydrologic forecasting approaches benefit from different strengths in comparison with traditional hydrologic forecasting systems: they are computationally efficient, can integrate and `learn' from a broad selection of input data (e.g., General Circulation Model (GCM) forecasts, Earth Observation time series, teleconnection patterns), and can take advantage of recent progress in machine learning (e.g. multi-model blending, post-processing and ensembling techniques). Recent efforts to develop a dynamical-statistical ensemble approach for forecasting seasonal streamflow using both GCM forecasts and changing land cover have shown promising results over the U.S. Midwest. Here, we use climate forecasts from several GCMs of the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) alongside 15-minute stage time series from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) and land cover classes extracted from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative 300 m annual Global Land Cover time series. With these data, we conduct systematic long-range probabilistic forecasting of monthly water levels in UK catchments over timescales ranging from one to twelve months ahead. We evaluate the improvement in model fit and model forecasting skill that comes from using land cover classes as predictors in the models. This work opens up new possibilities for combining Earth Observation time series with GCM forecasts to predict a variety of hazards from space using data science techniques.

Distributed Monitoring of the R(sup 2) Statistic for Linear Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhaduri, Kanishka; Das, Kamalika; Giannella, Chris R.

2011-01-01

The problem of monitoring a multivariate linear regression model is relevant in studying the evolving relationship between a set of input variables (features) and one or more dependent target variables. This problem becomes challenging for large scale data in a distributed computing environment when only a subset of instances is available at individual nodes and the local data changes frequently. Data centralization and periodic model recomputation can add high overhead to tasks like anomaly detection in such dynamic settings. Therefore, the goal is to develop techniques for monitoring and updating the model over the union of all nodes data in a communication-efficient fashion. Correctness guarantees on such techniques are also often highly desirable, especially in safety-critical application scenarios. In this paper we develop DReMo a distributed algorithm with very low resource overhead, for monitoring the quality of a regression model in terms of its coefficient of determination (R2 statistic). When the nodes collectively determine that R2 has dropped below a fixed threshold, the linear regression model is recomputed via a network-wide convergecast and the updated model is broadcast back to all nodes. We show empirically, using both synthetic and real data, that our proposed method is highly communication-efficient and scalable, and also provide theoretical guarantees on correctness.

Sealing ability of lateral compaction and tapered single cone gutta-percha techniques in root canals prepared with stainless steel and rotary nickel titanium instruments.

PubMed

Koçak, Mustafa M; Darendeliler-Yaman, Sis

2012-07-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the sealing ability of lateral compaction and tapered single cone gutta-percha techniques in root canals prepared with stainless steel and rotary nickel titanium root canal instruments by fluid filtration method. The root canals were prepared with stainless steel (SS) and nickel titanium (NiTi) instruments. The canals prepared with SS were obturated with lateral compaction technique using .02 tapered cones and the canals prepared with NiTi instruments were obturated with lateral compaction technique using .02 tapered cones or 06 tapered single cones. The amount of leakage was evaluated by fluid filtration model. The results were statistically analyzed with one-way ANOVA. The group prepared with NiTi instruments and filled with lateral compaction technique showed significantly less coronal leakage than the group prepared with SS instruments and filled with lateral compaction technique (p<0.05). There was no statistically difference between apical leakages of groups (p>0.05). Obturation with lateral compaction of gutta-percha provides a superior coronal seal whilst canal instrumentation with engine-driven NiTi files reduces the extent of microleakage in root canals when compared with stainless steel hand instruments. Tapered single cone technique was comparable with lateral compaction technique because of easier application. Key words:Apical leakage, coronal leakage, lateral compaction technique, single cone technique.

Advancing statistical analysis of ambulatory assessment data in the study of addictive behavior: A primer on three person-oriented techniques.

PubMed

Foster, Katherine T; Beltz, Adriene M

2018-08-01

Ambulatory assessment (AA) methodologies have the potential to increase understanding and treatment of addictive behavior in seemingly unprecedented ways, due in part, to their emphasis on intensive repeated assessments of an individual's addictive behavior in context. But, many analytic techniques traditionally applied to AA data - techniques that average across people and time - do not fully leverage this potential. In an effort to take advantage of the individualized, temporal nature of AA data on addictive behavior, the current paper considers three underutilized person-oriented analytic techniques: multilevel modeling, p-technique, and group iterative multiple model estimation. After reviewing prevailing analytic techniques, each person-oriented technique is presented, AA data specifications are mentioned, an example analysis using generated data is provided, and advantages and limitations are discussed; the paper closes with a brief comparison across techniques. Increasing use of person-oriented techniques will substantially enhance inferences that can be drawn from AA data on addictive behavior and has implications for the development of individualized interventions. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

SOCR Analyses - an Instructional Java Web-based Statistical Analysis Toolkit.

PubMed

Chu, Annie; Cui, Jenny; Dinov, Ivo D

2009-03-01

The Statistical Online Computational Resource (SOCR) designs web-based tools for educational use in a variety of undergraduate courses (Dinov 2006). Several studies have demonstrated that these resources significantly improve students' motivation and learning experiences (Dinov et al. 2008). SOCR Analyses is a new component that concentrates on data modeling and analysis using parametric and non-parametric techniques supported with graphical model diagnostics. Currently implemented analyses include commonly used models in undergraduate statistics courses like linear models (Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression, One-Way and Two-Way ANOVA). In addition, we implemented tests for sample comparisons, such as t-test in the parametric category; and Wilcoxon rank sum test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Friedman's test, in the non-parametric category. SOCR Analyses also include several hypothesis test models, such as Contingency tables, Friedman's test and Fisher's exact test.The code itself is open source (http://socr.googlecode.com/), hoping to contribute to the efforts of the statistical computing community. The code includes functionality for each specific analysis model and it has general utilities that can be applied in various statistical computing tasks. For example, concrete methods with API (Application Programming Interface) have been implemented in statistical summary, least square solutions of general linear models, rank calculations, etc. HTML interfaces, tutorials, source code, activities, and data are freely available via the web (www.SOCR.ucla.edu). Code examples for developers and demos for educators are provided on the SOCR Wiki website.In this article, the pedagogical utilization of the SOCR Analyses is discussed, as well as the underlying design framework. As the SOCR project is on-going and more functions and tools are being added to it, these resources are constantly improved. The reader is strongly encouraged to check the SOCR site for most updated information and newly added models.

Predictive modeling of hazardous waste landfill total above-ground biomass using passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadley, Brian Christopher

This dissertation assessed remotely sensed data and geospatial modeling technique(s) to map the spatial distribution of total above-ground biomass present on the surface of the Savannah River National Laboratory's (SRNL) Mixed Waste Management Facility (MWMF) hazardous waste landfill. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, regression kriging, and tree-structured regression were employed to model the empirical relationship between in-situ measured Bahia (Paspalum notatum Flugge) and Centipede [Eremochloa ophiuroides (Munro) Hack.] grass biomass against an assortment of explanatory variables extracted from fine spatial resolution passive optical and LIDAR remotely sensed data. Explanatory variables included: (1) discrete channels of visible, near-infrared (NIR), and short-wave infrared (SWIR) reflectance, (2) spectral vegetation indices (SVI), (3) spectral mixture analysis (SMA) modeled fractions, (4) narrow-band derivative-based vegetation indices, and (5) LIDAR derived topographic variables (i.e. elevation, slope, and aspect). Results showed that a linear combination of the first- (1DZ_DGVI), second- (2DZ_DGVI), and third-derivative of green vegetation indices (3DZ_DGVI) calculated from hyperspectral data recorded over the 400--960 nm wavelengths of the electromagnetic spectrum explained the largest percentage of statistical variation (R2 = 0.5184) in the total above-ground biomass measurements. In general, the topographic variables did not correlate well with the MWMF biomass data, accounting for less than five percent of the statistical variation. It was concluded that tree-structured regression represented the optimum geospatial modeling technique due to a combination of model performance and efficiency/flexibility factors.

A Virtual Study of Grid Resolution on Experiments of a Highly-Resolved Turbulent Plume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maisto, Pietro M. F.; Marshall, Andre W.; Gollner, Michael J.; Fire Protection Engineering Department Collaboration

2017-11-01

An accurate representation of sub-grid scale turbulent mixing is critical for modeling fire plumes and smoke transport. In this study, PLIF and PIV diagnostics are used with the saltwater modeling technique to provide highly-resolved instantaneous field measurements in unconfined turbulent plumes useful for statistical analysis, physical insight, and model validation. The effect of resolution was investigated employing a virtual interrogation window (of varying size) applied to the high-resolution field measurements. Motivated by LES low-pass filtering concepts, the high-resolution experimental data in this study can be analyzed within the interrogation windows (i.e. statistics at the sub-grid scale) and on interrogation windows (i.e. statistics at the resolved scale). A dimensionless resolution threshold (L/D*) criterion was determined to achieve converged statistics on the filtered measurements. Such a criterion was then used to establish the relative importance between large and small-scale turbulence phenomena while investigating specific scales for the turbulent flow. First order data sets start to collapse at a resolution of 0.3D*, while for second and higher order statistical moments the interrogation window size drops down to 0.2D*.

Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

2016-04-01

Hydrologic ensemble forecasts driven by atmospheric ensemble prediction systems need statistical postprocessing in order to account for systematic errors in terms of both mean and spread. Runoff is an inherently multivariate process with typical events lasting from hours in case of floods to weeks or even months in case of droughts. This calls for multivariate postprocessing techniques that yield well calibrated forecasts in univariate terms and ensure a realistic temporal dependence structure at the same time. To this end, the univariate ensemble model output statistics (EMOS; Gneiting et al., 2005) postprocessing method is combined with two different copula approaches that ensure multivariate calibration throughout the entire forecast horizon. These approaches comprise ensemble copula coupling (ECC; Schefzik et al., 2013), which preserves the dependence structure of the raw ensemble, and a Gaussian copula approach (GCA; Pinson and Girard, 2012), which estimates the temporal correlations from training observations. Both methods are tested in a case study covering three subcatchments of the river Rhine that represent different sizes and hydrological regimes: the Upper Rhine up to the gauge Maxau, the river Moselle up to the gauge Trier, and the river Lahn up to the gauge Kalkofen. The results indicate that both ECC and GCA are suitable for modelling the temporal dependences of probabilistic hydrologic forecasts (Hemri et al., 2015). References Gneiting, T., A. E. Raftery, A. H. Westveld, and T. Goldman (2005), Calibrated probabilistic forecasting using ensemble model output statistics and minimum CRPS estimation, Monthly Weather Review, 133(5), 1098-1118, DOI: 10.1175/MWR2904.1. Hemri, S., D. Lisniak, and B. Klein, Multivariate postprocessing techniques for probabilistic hydrological forecasting, Water Resources Research, 51(9), 7436-7451, DOI: 10.1002/2014WR016473. Pinson, P., and R. Girard (2012), Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation, Applied Energy, 96, 12-20, DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.004. Schefzik, R., T. L. Thorarinsdottir, and T. Gneiting (2013), Uncertainty quantification in complex simulation models using ensemble copula coupling, Statistical Science, 28, 616-640, DOI: 10.1214/13-STS443.

Application of Tube Dynamics to Non-Statistical Reaction Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabern, F.; Koon, W. S.; Marsden, J. E.; Ross, S. D.; Yanao, T.

2006-06-01

A technique based on dynamical systems theory is introduced for the computation of lifetime distributions and rates of chemical reactions and scattering phenomena, even in systems that exhibit non-statistical behavior. In particular, we merge invariant manifold tube dynamics with Monte Carlo volume determination for accurate rate calculations. This methodology is applied to a three-degree-of-freedom model problem and some ideas on how it might be extended to higher-degree-of-freedom systems are presented.

The possibilities of using scale-selective polarization cartography in diagnostics of myocardium pathologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ushenko, Yu. A.; Wanchuliak, O. Y.

2013-06-01

The optical model of polycrystalline networks of myocardium protein fibrils is presented. The technique of determining the coordinate distribution of polarization azimuth of the points of laser images of myocardium histological sections is suggested. The results of investigating the interrelation between the values of statistical (statistical moments of the 1st-4th order) parameters are presented which characterize distributions of wavelet-coefficients polarization maps of myocardium layers and death reasons.

Development Of Educational Programs In Renewable And Alternative Energy Processing: The Case Of Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svirina, Anna; Shindor, Olga; Tatmyshevsky, Konstantin

2014-12-01

The paper deals with the main problems of Russian energy system development that proves necessary to provide educational programs in the field of renewable and alternative energy. In the paper the process of curricula development and defining teaching techniques on the basis of expert opinion evaluation is defined, and the competence model for renewable and alternative energy processing master students is suggested. On the basis of a distributed questionnaire and in-depth interviews, the data for statistical analysis was obtained. On the basis of this data, an optimization of curricula structure was performed, and three models of a structure for optimizing teaching techniques were developed. The suggested educational program structure which was adopted by employers is presented in the paper. The findings include quantitatively estimated importance of systemic thinking and professional skills and knowledge as basic competences of a masters' program graduate; statistically estimated necessity of practice-based learning approach; and optimization models for structuring curricula in renewable and alternative energy processing. These findings allow the establishment of a platform for the development of educational programs.

Modeling And Detecting Anomalies In Scada Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svendsen, Nils; Wolthusen, Stephen

The detection of attacks and intrusions based on anomalies is hampered by the limits of specificity underlying the detection techniques. However, in the case of many critical infrastructure systems, domain-specific knowledge and models can impose constraints that potentially reduce error rates. At the same time, attackers can use their knowledge of system behavior to mask their manipulations, causing adverse effects to observed only after a significant period of time. This paper describes elementary statistical techniques that can be applied to detect anomalies in critical infrastructure networks. A SCADA system employed in liquefied natural gas (LNG) production is used as a case study.

Supervised variational model with statistical inference and its application in medical image segmentation.

PubMed

Li, Changyang; Wang, Xiuying; Eberl, Stefan; Fulham, Michael; Yin, Yong; Dagan Feng, David

2015-01-01

Automated and general medical image segmentation can be challenging because the foreground and the background may have complicated and overlapping density distributions in medical imaging. Conventional region-based level set algorithms often assume piecewise constant or piecewise smooth for segments, which are implausible for general medical image segmentation. Furthermore, low contrast and noise make identification of the boundaries between foreground and background difficult for edge-based level set algorithms. Thus, to address these problems, we suggest a supervised variational level set segmentation model to harness the statistical region energy functional with a weighted probability approximation. Our approach models the region density distributions by using the mixture-of-mixtures Gaussian model to better approximate real intensity distributions and distinguish statistical intensity differences between foreground and background. The region-based statistical model in our algorithm can intuitively provide better performance on noisy images. We constructed a weighted probability map on graphs to incorporate spatial indications from user input with a contextual constraint based on the minimization of contextual graphs energy functional. We measured the performance of our approach on ten noisy synthetic images and 58 medical datasets with heterogeneous intensities and ill-defined boundaries and compared our technique to the Chan-Vese region-based level set model, the geodesic active contour model with distance regularization, and the random walker model. Our method consistently achieved the highest Dice similarity coefficient when compared to the other methods.

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pohorille, Andrew

2006-01-01

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Efficient computational model for classification of protein localization images using Extended Threshold Adjacency Statistics and Support Vector Machines.

PubMed

Tahir, Muhammad; Jan, Bismillah; Hayat, Maqsood; Shah, Shakir Ullah; Amin, Muhammad

2018-04-01

Discriminative and informative feature extraction is the core requirement for accurate and efficient classification of protein subcellular localization images so that drug development could be more effective. The objective of this paper is to propose a novel modification in the Threshold Adjacency Statistics technique and enhance its discriminative power. In this work, we utilized Threshold Adjacency Statistics from a novel perspective to enhance its discrimination power and efficiency. In this connection, we utilized seven threshold ranges to produce seven distinct feature spaces, which are then used to train seven SVMs. The final prediction is obtained through the majority voting scheme. The proposed ETAS-SubLoc system is tested on two benchmark datasets using 5-fold cross-validation technique. We observed that our proposed novel utilization of TAS technique has improved the discriminative power of the classifier. The ETAS-SubLoc system has achieved 99.2% accuracy, 99.3% sensitivity and 99.1% specificity for Endogenous dataset outperforming the classical Threshold Adjacency Statistics technique. Similarly, 91.8% accuracy, 96.3% sensitivity and 91.6% specificity values are achieved for Transfected dataset. Simulation results validated the effectiveness of ETAS-SubLoc that provides superior prediction performance compared to the existing technique. The proposed methodology aims at providing support to pharmaceutical industry as well as research community towards better drug designing and innovation in the fields of bioinformatics and computational biology. The implementation code for replicating the experiments presented in this paper is available at: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7IyGPObWbSqRTRMcXI2bG5CZWs/view?usp=sharing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using entropy to cut complex time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertens, David; Poncela Casasnovas, Julia; Spring, Bonnie; Amaral, L. A. N.

2013-03-01

Using techniques from statistical physics, physicists have modeled and analyzed human phenomena varying from academic citation rates to disease spreading to vehicular traffic jams. The last decade's explosion of digital information and the growing ubiquity of smartphones has led to a wealth of human self-reported data. This wealth of data comes at a cost, including non-uniform sampling and statistically significant but physically insignificant correlations. In this talk I present our work using entropy to identify stationary sub-sequences of self-reported human weight from a weight management web site. Our entropic approach-inspired by the infomap network community detection algorithm-is far less biased by rare fluctuations than more traditional time series segmentation techniques. Supported by the Howard Hughes Medical Institute

Laser ektacytometry and evaluation of statistical characteristics of inhomogeneous ensembles of red blood cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikitin, S. Yu.; Priezzhev, A. V.; Lugovtsov, A. E.; Ustinov, V. D.; Razgulin, A. V.

2014-10-01

The paper is devoted to development of the laser ektacytometry technique for evaluation of the statistical characteristics of inhomogeneous ensembles of red blood cells (RBCs). We have analyzed theoretically laser beam scattering by the inhomogeneous ensembles of elliptical discs, modeling red blood cells in the ektacytometer. The analysis shows that the laser ektacytometry technique allows for quantitative evaluation of such population characteristics of RBCs as the cells mean shape, the cells deformability variance and asymmetry of the cells distribution in the deformability. Moreover, we show that the deformability distribution itself can be retrieved by solving a specific Fredholm integral equation of the first kind. At this stage we do not take into account the scatter in the RBC sizes.

Pyrotechnic Shock Analysis Using Statistical Energy Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-23

SEA subsystems. A couple of validation examples are provided to demonstrate the new approach. KEY WORDS : Peak Ratio, phase perturbation...Ballistic Shock Prediction Models and Techniques for Use in the Crusader Combat Vehicle Program,” 11th Annual US Army Ground Vehicle Survivability

Conceptual Modeling Techniques for Use Within the DoD Acquisition Community

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-14

auditory, or kinesthetic information, but are there people more naturally adept at thinking conceptually? For those who showed greater conceptually...thinking ability, does being a visual, auditory, or kinesthetic learner correlate to this in any statistically significant manner? Does field

VizieR Online Data Catalog: HARPS timeseries data for HD41248 (Jenkins+, 2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenkins, J. S.; Tuomi, M.

2017-05-01

We modeled the HARPS radial velocities of HD 42148 by adopting the analysis techniques and the statistical model applied in Tuomi et al. (2014, arXiv:1405.2016). This model contains Keplerian signals, a linear trend, a moving average component with exponential smoothing, and linear correlations with activity indices, namely, BIS, FWHM, and chromospheric activity S index. We applied our statistical model outlined above to the full data set of radial velocities for HD 41248, combining the previously published data in Jenkins et al. (2013ApJ...771...41J) with the newly published data in Santos et al. (2014, J/A+A/566/A35), giving rise to a total time series of 223 HARPS (Mayor et al. 2003Msngr.114...20M) velocities. (1 data file).

Detector noise statistics in the non-linear regime

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shopbell, P. L.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.

1992-01-01

The statistical behavior of an idealized linear detector in the presence of threshold and saturation levels is examined. It is assumed that the noise is governed by the statistical fluctuations in the number of photons emitted by the source during an exposure. Since physical detectors cannot have infinite dynamic range, our model illustrates that all devices have non-linear regimes, particularly at high count rates. The primary effect is a decrease in the statistical variance about the mean signal due to a portion of the expected noise distribution being removed via clipping. Higher order statistical moments are also examined, in particular, skewness and kurtosis. In principle, the expected distortion in the detector noise characteristics can be calibrated using flatfield observations with count rates matched to the observations. For this purpose, some basic statistical methods that utilize Fourier analysis techniques are described.

On-Orbit System Identification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mettler, E.; Milman, M. H.; Bayard, D.; Eldred, D. B.

1987-01-01

Information derived from accelerometer readings benefits important engineering and control functions. Report discusses methodology for detection, identification, and analysis of motions within space station. Techniques of vibration and rotation analyses, control theory, statistics, filter theory, and transform methods integrated to form system for generating models and model parameters that characterize total motion of complicated space station, with respect to both control-induced and random mechanical disturbances.

Two-Year versus One-Year Head Start Program Impact: Addressing Selection Bias by Comparing Regression Modeling with Propensity Score Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Leow, Christine; Wen, Xiaoli; Korfmacher, Jon

2015-01-01

This article compares regression modeling and propensity score analysis as different types of statistical techniques used in addressing selection bias when estimating the impact of two-year versus one-year Head Start on children's school readiness. The analyses were based on the national Head Start secondary dataset. After controlling for…

Development of failure model for nickel cadmium cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gupta, A.

1980-01-01

The development of a method for the life prediction of nickel cadmium cells is discussed. The approach described involves acquiring an understanding of the mechanisms of degradation and failure and at the same time developing nondestructive evaluation techniques for the nickel cadmium cells. The development of a statistical failure model which will describe the mechanisms of degradation and failure is outlined.

Cross-Section Measurements via the Activation Technique at the Cologne Clover Counting Setup

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heim, Felix; Mayer, Jan; Netterdon, Lars; Scholz, Philipp; Zilges, Andreas

The activation technique is a widely used method for the determination of cross-section values for charged-particle induced reactions at astrophysically relevant energies. Since network calculations of nucleosynthesis processes often depend on reaction rates calculated in the scope of the Hauser-Feshbach statistical model, these cross-sections can be used to improve the nuclear-physics input-parameters like optical-model potentials (OMP), γ-ray strength functions, and nuclear level densities. In order to extend the available experimental database, the 108Cd(α, n)111Sn reaction cross section was investigated at ten energies between 10.2 and 13.5 MeV. As this reaction at these energies is almost only sensitive on the α-decay width, the results were compared to statistical model calculations using different models for the α-OMP. The irradiation as well as the consecutive γ-ray counting were performed at the Institute for Nuclear Physics of the University of Cologne using the 10 MV FN-Tandem accelerator and the Cologne Clover Counting Setup. This setup consists of two clover- type high purity germanium (HPGe) detectors in a close face-to-face geometry to cover a solid angle of almost 4π.

Optimization strategies based on sequential quadratic programming applied for a fermentation process for butanol production.

PubMed

Pinto Mariano, Adriano; Bastos Borba Costa, Caliane; de Franceschi de Angelis, Dejanira; Maugeri Filho, Francisco; Pires Atala, Daniel Ibraim; Wolf Maciel, Maria Regina; Maciel Filho, Rubens

2009-11-01

In this work, the mathematical optimization of a continuous flash fermentation process for the production of biobutanol was studied. The process consists of three interconnected units, as follows: fermentor, cell-retention system (tangential microfiltration), and vacuum flash vessel (responsible for the continuous recovery of butanol from the broth). The objective of the optimization was to maximize butanol productivity for a desired substrate conversion. Two strategies were compared for the optimization of the process. In one of them, the process was represented by a deterministic model with kinetic parameters determined experimentally and, in the other, by a statistical model obtained using the factorial design technique combined with simulation. For both strategies, the problem was written as a nonlinear programming problem and was solved with the sequential quadratic programming technique. The results showed that despite the very similar solutions obtained with both strategies, the problems found with the strategy using the deterministic model, such as lack of convergence and high computational time, make the use of the optimization strategy with the statistical model, which showed to be robust and fast, more suitable for the flash fermentation process, being recommended for real-time applications coupling optimization and control.

A new approach to fracture modelling in reservoirs using deterministic, genetic and statistical models of fracture growth

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rawnsley, K.; Swaby, P.

1996-08-01

It is increasingly acknowledged that in order to understand and forecast the behavior of fracture influenced reservoirs we must attempt to reproduce the fracture system geometry and use this as a basis for fluid flow calculation. This article aims to present a recently developed fracture modelling prototype designed specifically for use in hydrocarbon reservoir environments. The prototype {open_quotes}FRAME{close_quotes} (FRActure Modelling Environment) aims to provide a tool which will allow the generation of realistic 3D fracture systems within a reservoir model, constrained to the known geology of the reservoir by both mechanical and statistical considerations, and which can be used asmore » a basis for fluid flow calculation. Two newly developed modelling techniques are used. The first is an interactive tool which allows complex fault surfaces and their associated deformations to be reproduced. The second is a {open_quotes}genetic{close_quotes} model which grows fracture patterns from seeds using conceptual models of fracture development. The user defines the mechanical input and can retrieve all the statistics of the growing fractures to allow comparison to assumed statistical distributions for the reservoir fractures. Input parameters include growth rate, fracture interaction characteristics, orientation maps and density maps. More traditional statistical stochastic fracture models are also incorporated. FRAME is designed to allow the geologist to input hard or soft data including seismically defined surfaces, well fractures, outcrop models, analogue or numerical mechanical models or geological {open_quotes}feeling{close_quotes}. The geologist is not restricted to {open_quotes}a priori{close_quotes} models of fracture patterns that may not correspond to the data.« less

Statistical colour models: an automated digital image analysis method for quantification of histological biomarkers.

PubMed

Shu, Jie; Dolman, G E; Duan, Jiang; Qiu, Guoping; Ilyas, Mohammad

2016-04-27

Colour is the most important feature used in quantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC) image analysis; IHC is used to provide information relating to aetiology and to confirm malignancy. Statistical modelling is a technique widely used for colour detection in computer vision. We have developed a statistical model of colour detection applicable to detection of stain colour in digital IHC images. Model was first trained by massive colour pixels collected semi-automatically. To speed up the training and detection processes, we removed luminance channel, Y channel of YCbCr colour space and chose 128 histogram bins which is the optimal number. A maximum likelihood classifier is used to classify pixels in digital slides into positively or negatively stained pixels automatically. The model-based tool was developed within ImageJ to quantify targets identified using IHC and histochemistry. The purpose of evaluation was to compare the computer model with human evaluation. Several large datasets were prepared and obtained from human oesophageal cancer, colon cancer and liver cirrhosis with different colour stains. Experimental results have demonstrated the model-based tool achieves more accurate results than colour deconvolution and CMYK model in the detection of brown colour, and is comparable to colour deconvolution in the detection of pink colour. We have also demostrated the proposed model has little inter-dataset variations. A robust and effective statistical model is introduced in this paper. The model-based interactive tool in ImageJ, which can create a visual representation of the statistical model and detect a specified colour automatically, is easy to use and available freely at http://rsb.info.nih.gov/ij/plugins/ihc-toolbox/index.html . Testing to the tool by different users showed only minor inter-observer variations in results.

Three-dimensional mapping of soil chemical characteristics at micrometric scale: Statistical prediction by combining 2D SEM-EDX data and 3D X-ray computed micro-tomographic images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapca, Simona

2015-04-01

Many soil properties and functions emerge from interactions of physical, chemical and biological processes at microscopic scales, which can be understood only by integrating techniques that traditionally are developed within separate disciplines. While recent advances in imaging techniques, such as X-ray computed tomography (X-ray CT), offer the possibility to reconstruct the 3D physical structure at fine resolutions, for the distribution of chemicals in soil, existing methods, based on scanning electron microscope (SEM) and energy dispersive X-ray detection (EDX), allow for characterization of the chemical composition only on 2D surfaces. At present, direct 3D measurement techniques are still lacking, sequential sectioning of soils, followed by 2D mapping of chemical elements and interpolation to 3D, being an alternative which is explored in this study. Specifically, we develop an integrated experimental and theoretical framework which combines 3D X-ray CT imaging technique with 2D SEM-EDX and use spatial statistics methods to map the chemical composition of soil in 3D. The procedure involves three stages 1) scanning a resin impregnated soil cube by X-ray CT, followed by precision cutting to produce parallel thin slices, the surfaces of which are scanned by SEM-EDX, 2) alignment of the 2D chemical maps within the internal 3D structure of the soil cube, and 3) development, of spatial statistics methods to predict the chemical composition of 3D soil based on the observed 2D chemical and 3D physical data. Specifically, three statistical models consisting of a regression tree, a regression tree kriging and cokriging model were used to predict the 3D spatial distribution of carbon, silicon, iron and oxygen in soil, these chemical elements showing a good spatial agreement between the X-ray grayscale intensities and the corresponding 2D SEM-EDX data. Due to the spatial correlation between the physical and chemical data, the regression-tree model showed a great potential in predicting chemical composition in particular for iron, which is generally sparsely distributed in soil. For carbon, silicon and oxygen, which are more densely distributed, the additional kriging of the regression tree residuals improved significantly the prediction, whereas prediction based on co-kriging was less consistent across replicates, underperforming regression-tree kriging. The present study shows a great potential in integrating geo-statistical methods with imaging techniques to unveil the 3D chemical structure of soil at very fine scales, the framework being suitable to be further applied to other types of imaging data such as images of biological thin sections for characterization of microbial distribution. Key words: X-ray CT, SEM-EDX, segmentation techniques, spatial correlation, 3D soil images, 2D chemical maps.

E-Area LLWF Vadose Zone Model: Probabilistic Model for Estimating Subsided-Area Infiltration Rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dyer, J.; Flach, G.

A probabilistic model employing a Monte Carlo sampling technique was developed in Python to generate statistical distributions of the upslope-intact-area to subsided-area ratio (Area UAi/Area SAi) for closure cap subsidence scenarios that differ in assumed percent subsidence and the total number of intact plus subsided compartments. The plan is to use this model as a component in the probabilistic system model for the E-Area Performance Assessment (PA), contributing uncertainty in infiltration estimates.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.

Ultra-low-dose computed tomographic angiography with model-based iterative reconstruction compared with standard-dose imaging after endovascular aneurysm repair: a prospective pilot study.

PubMed

Naidu, Sailen G; Kriegshauser, J Scott; Paden, Robert G; He, Miao; Wu, Qing; Hara, Amy K

2014-12-01

An ultra-low-dose radiation protocol reconstructed with model-based iterative reconstruction was compared with our standard-dose protocol. This prospective study evaluated 20 men undergoing surveillance-enhanced computed tomography after endovascular aneurysm repair. All patients underwent standard-dose and ultra-low-dose venous phase imaging; images were compared after reconstruction with filtered back projection, adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction, and model-based iterative reconstruction. Objective measures of aortic contrast attenuation and image noise were averaged. Images were subjectively assessed (1 = worst, 5 = best) for diagnostic confidence, image noise, and vessel sharpness. Aneurysm sac diameter and endoleak detection were compared. Quantitative image noise was 26% less with ultra-low-dose model-based iterative reconstruction than with standard-dose adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction and 58% less than with ultra-low-dose adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction. Average subjective noise scores were not different between ultra-low-dose model-based iterative reconstruction and standard-dose adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (3.8 vs. 4.0, P = .25). Subjective scores for diagnostic confidence were better with standard-dose adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction than with ultra-low-dose model-based iterative reconstruction (4.4 vs. 4.0, P = .002). Vessel sharpness was decreased with ultra-low-dose model-based iterative reconstruction compared with standard-dose adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (3.3 vs. 4.1, P < .0001). Ultra-low-dose model-based iterative reconstruction and standard-dose adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction aneurysm sac diameters were not significantly different (4.9 vs. 4.9 cm); concordance for the presence of endoleak was 100% (P < .001). Compared with a standard-dose technique, an ultra-low-dose model-based iterative reconstruction protocol provides comparable image quality and diagnostic assessment at a 73% lower radiation dose.

Using Computational Modeling to Assess the Impact of Clinical Decision Support on Cancer Screening within Community Health Centers

PubMed Central

Carney, Timothy Jay; Morgan, Geoffrey P.; Jones, Josette; McDaniel, Anna M.; Weaver, Michael; Weiner, Bryan; Haggstrom, David A.

2014-01-01

Our conceptual model demonstrates our goal to investigate the impact of clinical decision support (CDS) utilization on cancer screening improvement strategies in the community health care (CHC) setting. We employed a dual modeling technique using both statistical and computational modeling to evaluate impact. Our statistical model used the Spearman’s Rho test to evaluate the strength of relationship between our proximal outcome measures (CDS utilization) against our distal outcome measure (provider self-reported cancer screening improvement). Our computational model relied on network evolution theory and made use of a tool called Construct-TM to model the use of CDS measured by the rate of organizational learning. We employed the use of previously collected survey data from community health centers Cancer Health Disparities Collaborative (HDCC). Our intent is to demonstrate the added valued gained by using a computational modeling tool in conjunction with a statistical analysis when evaluating the impact a health information technology, in the form of CDS, on health care quality process outcomes such as facility-level screening improvement. Significant simulated disparities in organizational learning over time were observed between community health centers beginning the simulation with high and low clinical decision support capability. PMID:24953241

Air Force/Industry F-35/F-22 Technology Interchange Workshop for Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR): Plenary Session

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-11-28

order to optimize pilot performance in the JSF tactical maneuvering environment • Binaural Capture and Synthesis of Ambient Soundscapes –Create a...technique for capturing and replicating ambient soundscapes , and use the technique to statistically model ambient soundscapes for a wide range of...Actuator (HTCA) • Binaural Capture and Synthesis of Ambient Soundscapes • High Temperature PM Actuator Motor • Manufacturing of New Active Noise

Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF): A modular framework for developing spatial forcing data in mountainous terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.; Johnson, M.; Robertson, M.; Sandusky, M.

2017-12-01

In the Western US, operational water supply managers rely on statistical techniques to forecast the volume of water left to enter the reservoirs. As the climate changes and the demand increases for stored water utilized for irrigation, flood control, power generation, and ecosystem services, water managers have begun to move from statistical techniques towards using physically based models. To assist with the transition, a new open source framework was developed, the Spatial Modeling for Resources Framework (SMRF), to automate and simplify the most common forcing data distribution methods. SMRF is computationally efficient and can be implemented for both research and operational applications. Currently, SMRF is able to generate all of the forcing data required to run physically based snow or hydrologic models at 50-100 m resolution over regions of 500-10,000 km2, and has been successfully applied in real time and historical applications for the Boise River Basin in Idaho, USA, the Tuolumne River Basin and San Joaquin in California, USA, and Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Idaho, USA. These applications use meteorological station measurements and numerical weather prediction model outputs as input data. SMRF has significantly streamlined the modeling workflow, decreased model set up time from weeks to days, and made near real-time application of physics-based snow and hydrologic models possible.

Software for Data Analysis with Graphical Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buntine, Wray L.; Roy, H. Scott

1994-01-01

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence and statistics, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing statistical inference. This offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper illustrates the framework with an example and then presents some basic techniques for the task: problem decomposition and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Application of Semiparametric Spline Regression Model in Analyzing Factors that In uence Population Density in Central Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumantari, Y. D.; Slamet, I.; Sugiyanto

2017-06-01

Semiparametric regression is a statistical analysis method that consists of parametric and nonparametric regression. There are various approach techniques in nonparametric regression. One of the approach techniques is spline. Central Java is one of the most densely populated province in Indonesia. Population density in this province can be modeled by semiparametric regression because it consists of parametric and nonparametric component. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to determine the factors that in uence population density in Central Java using the semiparametric spline regression model. The result shows that the factors which in uence population density in Central Java is Family Planning (FP) active participants and district minimum wage.

Weak-value amplification and optimal parameter estimation in the presence of correlated noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sinclair, Josiah; Hallaji, Matin; Steinberg, Aephraim M.; Tollaksen, Jeff; Jordan, Andrew N.

2017-11-01

We analytically and numerically investigate the performance of weak-value amplification (WVA) and related parameter estimation methods in the presence of temporally correlated noise. WVA is a special instance of a general measurement strategy that involves sorting data into separate subsets based on the outcome of a second "partitioning" measurement. Using a simplified correlated noise model that can be analyzed exactly together with optimal statistical estimators, we compare WVA to a conventional measurement method. We find that WVA indeed yields a much lower variance of the parameter of interest than the conventional technique does, optimized in the absence of any partitioning measurements. In contrast, a statistically optimal analysis that employs partitioning measurements, incorporating all partitioned results and their known correlations, is found to yield an improvement—typically slight—over the noise reduction achieved by WVA. This result occurs because the simple WVA technique is not tailored to any specific noise environment and therefore does not make use of correlations between the different partitions. We also compare WVA to traditional background subtraction, a familiar technique where measurement outcomes are partitioned to eliminate unknown offsets or errors in calibration. Surprisingly, for the cases we consider, background subtraction turns out to be a special case of the optimal partitioning approach, possessing a similar typically slight advantage over WVA. These results give deeper insight into the role of partitioning measurements (with or without postselection) in enhancing measurement precision, which some have found puzzling. They also resolve previously made conflicting claims about the usefulness of weak-value amplification to precision measurement in the presence of correlated noise. We finish by presenting numerical results to model a more realistic laboratory situation of time-decaying correlations, showing that our conclusions hold for a wide range of statistical models.

Endovascular Treatment of Diabetic Foot in a Selected Population of Patients with Below-the-Knee Disease: Is the Angiosome Model Effective?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fossaceca, Rita, E-mail: rfossaceca@hotmail.com; Guzzardi, Giuseppe, E-mail: guz@libero.it; Cerini, Paolo, E-mail: cerini84@hotmail.it

Purpose. To evaluate the efficacy of percutaneous transluminal angioplasty (PTA) in a selected population of diabetic patients with below-the-knee (BTK) disease and to analyze the reliability of the angiosome model. Methods. We made a retrospective analysis of the results of PTA performed in 201 diabetic patients with BTK-only disease treated at our institute from January 2005 to December 2011. We evaluated the postoperative technical success, and at 1, 6, and 12 months' follow-up, we assessed the rates and values of partial and complete ulcer healing, restenosis, major and minor amputation, limb salvage, and percutaneous oximetry (TcPO{sub 2}) (Student's t test).more » We used the angiosome model to compare different clinicolaboratory outcomes in patients treated by direct revascularization (DR) from patients treated with indirect revascularization (IR) technique by Student's t test and the {chi}{sup 2} test. Results. At a mean {+-} standard deviation follow-up of 17.5 {+-} 12 months, we observed a mortality rate of 3.5 %, a major amputation rate of 9.4 %, and a limb salvage rate of 87 % with a statistically significant increase of TcPO{sub 2} values at follow-up compared to baseline (p < 0.05). In 34 patients, treatment was performed with the IR technique and in 167 by DR; in both groups, there was a statistically significant increase of TcPO{sub 2} values at follow-up compared to baseline (p < 0.05), without statistically significant differences in therapeutic efficacy. Conclusion. PTA of the BTK-only disease is a safe and effective option. The DR technique is the first treatment option; we believe, however, that IR is similarly effective, with good results over time.« less

Statistics of Optical Coherence Tomography Data From Human Retina

PubMed Central

de Juan, Joaquín; Ferrone, Claudia; Giannini, Daniela; Huang, David; Koch, Giorgio; Russo, Valentina; Tan, Ou; Bruni, Carlo

2010-01-01

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has recently become one of the primary methods for noninvasive probing of the human retina. The pseudoimage formed by OCT (the so-called B-scan) varies probabilistically across pixels due to complexities in the measurement technique. Hence, sensitive automatic procedures of diagnosis using OCT may exploit statistical analysis of the spatial distribution of reflectance. In this paper, we perform a statistical study of retinal OCT data. We find that the stretched exponential probability density function can model well the distribution of intensities in OCT pseudoimages. Moreover, we show a small, but significant correlation between neighbor pixels when measuring OCT intensities with pixels of about 5 µm. We then develop a simple joint probability model for the OCT data consistent with known retinal features. This model fits well the stretched exponential distribution of intensities and their spatial correlation. In normal retinas, fit parameters of this model are relatively constant along retinal layers, but varies across layers. However, in retinas with diabetic retinopathy, large spikes of parameter modulation interrupt the constancy within layers, exactly where pathologies are visible. We argue that these results give hope for improvement in statistical pathology-detection methods even when the disease is in its early stages. PMID:20304733

Statistical physics of vehicular traffic and some related systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, Debashish; Santen, Ludger; Schadschneider, Andreas

2000-05-01

In the so-called “microscopic” models of vehicular traffic, attention is paid explicitly to each individual vehicle each of which is represented by a “particle”; the nature of the “interactions” among these particles is determined by the way the vehicles influence each others’ movement. Therefore, vehicular traffic, modeled as a system of interacting “particles” driven far from equilibrium, offers the possibility to study various fundamental aspects of truly nonequilibrium systems which are of current interest in statistical physics. Analytical as well as numerical techniques of statistical physics are being used to study these models to understand rich variety of physical phenomena exhibited by vehicular traffic. Some of these phenomena, observed in vehicular traffic under different circumstances, include transitions from one dynamical phase to another, criticality and self-organized criticality, metastability and hysteresis, phase-segregation, etc. In this critical review, written from the perspective of statistical physics, we explain the guiding principles behind all the main theoretical approaches. But we present detailed discussions on the results obtained mainly from the so-called “particle-hopping” models, particularly emphasizing those which have been formulated in recent years using the language of cellular automata.

Statistical inference of dynamic resting-state functional connectivity using hierarchical observation modeling.

PubMed

Sojoudi, Alireza; Goodyear, Bradley G

2016-12-01

Spontaneous fluctuations of blood-oxygenation level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging (BOLD fMRI) signals are highly synchronous between brain regions that serve similar functions. This provides a means to investigate functional networks; however, most analysis techniques assume functional connections are constant over time. This may be problematic in the case of neurological disease, where functional connections may be highly variable. Recently, several methods have been proposed to determine moment-to-moment changes in the strength of functional connections over an imaging session (so called dynamic connectivity). Here a novel analysis framework based on a hierarchical observation modeling approach was proposed, to permit statistical inference of the presence of dynamic connectivity. A two-level linear model composed of overlapping sliding windows of fMRI signals, incorporating the fact that overlapping windows are not independent was described. To test this approach, datasets were synthesized whereby functional connectivity was either constant (significant or insignificant) or modulated by an external input. The method successfully determines the statistical significance of a functional connection in phase with the modulation, and it exhibits greater sensitivity and specificity in detecting regions with variable connectivity, when compared with sliding-window correlation analysis. For real data, this technique possesses greater reproducibility and provides a more discriminative estimate of dynamic connectivity than sliding-window correlation analysis. Hum Brain Mapp 37:4566-4580, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

An image based method for crop yield prediction using remotely sensed and crop canopy data: the case of Paphos district, western Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadavid, G.; Hadjimitsis, D.

2014-08-01

Remote sensing techniques development have provided the opportunity for optimizing yields in the agricultural procedure and moreover to predict the forthcoming yield. Yield prediction plays a vital role in Agricultural Policy and provides useful data to policy makers. In this context, crop and soil parameters along with NDVI index which are valuable sources of information have been elaborated statistically to test if a) Durum wheat yield can be predicted and b) when is the actual time-window to predict the yield in the district of Paphos, where Durum wheat is the basic cultivation and supports the rural economy of the area. 15 plots cultivated with Durum wheat from the Agricultural Research Institute of Cyprus for research purposes, in the area of interest, have been under observation for three years to derive the necessary data. Statistical and remote sensing techniques were then applied to derive and map a model that can predict yield of Durum wheat in this area. Indeed the semi-empirical model developed for this purpose, with very high correlation coefficient R2=0.886, has shown in practice that can predict yields very good. Students T test has revealed that predicted values and real values of yield have no statistically significant difference. The developed model can and will be further elaborated with more parameters and applied for other crops in the near future.

Fourier descriptor analysis and unification of voice range profile contours: method and applications.

PubMed

Pabon, Peter; Ternström, Sten; Lamarche, Anick

2011-06-01

To describe a method for unified description, statistical modeling, and comparison of voice range profile (VRP) contours, even from diverse sources. A morphologic modeling technique, which is based on Fourier descriptors (FDs), is applied to the VRP contour. The technique, which essentially involves resampling of the curve of the contour, is assessed and also is compared to density-based VRP averaging methods that use the overlap count. VRP contours can be usefully described and compared using FDs. The method also permits the visualization of the local covariation along the contour average. For example, the FD-based analysis shows that the population variance for ensembles of VRP contours is usually smallest at the upper left part of the VRP. To illustrate the method's advantages and possible further application, graphs are given that compare the averaged contours from different authors and recording devices--for normal, trained, and untrained male and female voices as well as for child voices. The proposed technique allows any VRP shape to be brought to the same uniform base. On this uniform base, VRP contours or contour elements coming from a variety of sources may be placed within the same graph for comparison and for statistical analysis.

Statistically Qualified Neuro-Analytic system and Method for Process Monitoring

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vilim, Richard B.; Garcia, Humberto E.; Chen, Frederick W.

1998-11-04

An apparatus and method for monitoring a process involves development and application of a statistically qualified neuro-analytic (SQNA) model to accurately and reliably identify process change. The development of the SQNA model is accomplished in two steps: deterministic model adaption and stochastic model adaptation. Deterministic model adaption involves formulating an analytic model of the process representing known process characteristics,augmenting the analytic model with a neural network that captures unknown process characteristics, and training the resulting neuro-analytic model by adjusting the neural network weights according to a unique scaled equation emor minimization technique. Stochastic model adaptation involves qualifying any remaining uncertaintymore » in the trained neuro-analytic model by formulating a likelihood function, given an error propagation equation, for computing the probability that the neuro-analytic model generates measured process output. Preferably, the developed SQNA model is validated using known sequential probability ratio tests and applied to the process as an on-line monitoring system.« less

Bayesian methods in reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

On the Optimization of Aerospace Plane Ascent Trajectory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Garni, Ahmed; Kassem, Ayman Hamdy

A hybrid heuristic optimization technique based on genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization has been developed and tested for trajectory optimization problems with multi-constraints and a multi-objective cost function. The technique is used to calculate control settings for two types for ascending trajectories (constant dynamic pressure and minimum-fuel-minimum-heat) for a two-dimensional model of an aerospace plane. A thorough statistical analysis is done on the hybrid technique to make comparisons with both basic genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization techniques with respect to convergence and execution time. Genetic algorithm optimization showed better execution time performance while particle swarm optimization showed better convergence performance. The hybrid optimization technique, benefiting from both techniques, showed superior robust performance compromising convergence trends and execution time.

Dynamic causal modelling: a critical review of the biophysical and statistical foundations.

PubMed

Daunizeau, J; David, O; Stephan, K E

2011-09-15

The goal of dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of neuroimaging data is to study experimentally induced changes in functional integration among brain regions. This requires (i) biophysically plausible and physiologically interpretable models of neuronal network dynamics that can predict distributed brain responses to experimental stimuli and (ii) efficient statistical methods for parameter estimation and model comparison. These two key components of DCM have been the focus of more than thirty methodological articles since the seminal work of Friston and colleagues published in 2003. In this paper, we provide a critical review of the current state-of-the-art of DCM. We inspect the properties of DCM in relation to the most common neuroimaging modalities (fMRI and EEG/MEG) and the specificity of inference on neural systems that can be made from these data. We then discuss both the plausibility of the underlying biophysical models and the robustness of the statistical inversion techniques. Finally, we discuss potential extensions of the current DCM framework, such as stochastic DCMs, plastic DCMs and field DCMs. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A technique for evaluating the application of the pin-level stuck-at fault model to VLSI circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palumbo, Daniel L.; Finelli, George B.

1987-01-01

Accurate fault models are required to conduct the experiments defined in validation methodologies for highly reliable fault-tolerant computers (e.g., computers with a probability of failure of 10 to the -9 for a 10-hour mission). Described is a technique by which a researcher can evaluate the capability of the pin-level stuck-at fault model to simulate true error behavior symptoms in very large scale integrated (VLSI) digital circuits. The technique is based on a statistical comparison of the error behavior resulting from faults applied at the pin-level of and internal to a VLSI circuit. As an example of an application of the technique, the error behavior of a microprocessor simulation subjected to internal stuck-at faults is compared with the error behavior which results from pin-level stuck-at faults. The error behavior is characterized by the time between errors and the duration of errors. Based on this example data, the pin-level stuck-at fault model is found to deliver less than ideal performance. However, with respect to the class of faults which cause a system crash, the pin-level, stuck-at fault model is found to provide a good modeling capability.

The potential of composite cognitive scores for tracking progression in Huntington's disease.

PubMed

Jones, Rebecca; Stout, Julie C; Labuschagne, Izelle; Say, Miranda; Justo, Damian; Coleman, Allison; Dumas, Eve M; Hart, Ellen; Owen, Gail; Durr, Alexandra; Leavitt, Blair R; Roos, Raymund; O'Regan, Alison; Langbehn, Doug; Tabrizi, Sarah J; Frost, Chris

2014-01-01

Composite scores derived from joint statistical modelling of individual risk factors are widely used to identify individuals who are at increased risk of developing disease or of faster disease progression. We investigated the ability of composite measures developed using statistical models to differentiate progressive cognitive deterioration in Huntington's disease (HD) from natural decline in healthy controls. Using longitudinal data from TRACK-HD, the optimal combinations of quantitative cognitive measures to differentiate premanifest and early stage HD individuals respectively from controls was determined using logistic regression. Composite scores were calculated from the parameters of each statistical model. Linear regression models were used to calculate effect sizes (ES) quantifying the difference in longitudinal change over 24 months between premanifest and early stage HD groups respectively and controls. ES for the composites were compared with ES for individual cognitive outcomes and other measures used in HD research. The 0.632 bootstrap was used to eliminate biases which result from developing and testing models in the same sample. In early HD, the composite score from the HD change prediction model produced an ES for difference in rate of 24-month change relative to controls of 1.14 (95% CI: 0.90 to 1.39), larger than the ES for any individual cognitive outcome and UHDRS Total Motor Score and Total Functional Capacity. In addition, this composite gave a statistically significant difference in rate of change in premanifest HD compared to controls over 24-months (ES: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.44), even though none of the individual cognitive outcomes produced statistically significant ES over this period. Composite scores developed using appropriate statistical modelling techniques have the potential to materially reduce required sample sizes for randomised controlled trials.

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). Results The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions within the SAP in a transparent way when structuring the primary analysis, sensitivity or ancillary analyses, and specific analyses for secondary endpoints. The mean logarithmic score and DIC discriminate well between different model scenarios. It becomes obvious that the naive choice of a conventional random effects Poisson model is often inappropriate for real-life count data. The findings are used to specify an appropriate mixed model employed in the sensitivity analyses of an ongoing phase III trial. Conclusions The proposed Bayesian methods are not only appealing for inference but notably provide a sophisticated insight into different aspects of model performance, such as forecast verification or calibration checks, and can be applied within the model selection process. The mean of the logarithmic score is a robust tool for model ranking and is not sensitive to sample size. Therefore, these Bayesian model selection techniques offer helpful decision support for shaping sensitivity and ancillary analyses in a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial with longitudinal count data as the primary endpoint. PMID:22962944

Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: an example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint.

PubMed

Adrion, Christine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2012-09-10

A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions within the SAP in a transparent way when structuring the primary analysis, sensitivity or ancillary analyses, and specific analyses for secondary endpoints. The mean logarithmic score and DIC discriminate well between different model scenarios. It becomes obvious that the naive choice of a conventional random effects Poisson model is often inappropriate for real-life count data. The findings are used to specify an appropriate mixed model employed in the sensitivity analyses of an ongoing phase III trial. The proposed Bayesian methods are not only appealing for inference but notably provide a sophisticated insight into different aspects of model performance, such as forecast verification or calibration checks, and can be applied within the model selection process. The mean of the logarithmic score is a robust tool for model ranking and is not sensitive to sample size. Therefore, these Bayesian model selection techniques offer helpful decision support for shaping sensitivity and ancillary analyses in a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial with longitudinal count data as the primary endpoint.

Modeling epidemics on adaptively evolving networks: A data-mining perspective.

PubMed

Kattis, Assimakis A; Holiday, Alexander; Stoica, Ana-Andreea; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G

2016-01-01

The exploration of epidemic dynamics on dynamically evolving ("adaptive") networks poses nontrivial challenges to the modeler, such as the determination of a small number of informative statistics of the detailed network state (that is, a few "good observables") that usefully summarize the overall (macroscopic, systems-level) behavior. Obtaining reduced, small size accurate models in terms of these few statistical observables--that is, trying to coarse-grain the full network epidemic model to a small but useful macroscopic one--is even more daunting. Here we describe a data-based approach to solving the first challenge: the detection of a few informative collective observables of the detailed epidemic dynamics. This is accomplished through Diffusion Maps (DMAPS), a recently developed data-mining technique. We illustrate the approach through simulations of a simple mathematical model of epidemics on a network: a model known to exhibit complex temporal dynamics. We discuss potential extensions of the approach, as well as possible shortcomings.

Genetic Programming as Alternative for Predicting Development Effort of Individual Software Projects

PubMed Central

Chavoya, Arturo; Lopez-Martin, Cuauhtemoc; Andalon-Garcia, Irma R.; Meda-Campaña, M. E.

2012-01-01

Statistical and genetic programming techniques have been used to predict the software development effort of large software projects. In this paper, a genetic programming model was used for predicting the effort required in individually developed projects. Accuracy obtained from a genetic programming model was compared against one generated from the application of a statistical regression model. A sample of 219 projects developed by 71 practitioners was used for generating the two models, whereas another sample of 130 projects developed by 38 practitioners was used for validating them. The models used two kinds of lines of code as well as programming language experience as independent variables. Accuracy results from the model obtained with genetic programming suggest that it could be used to predict the software development effort of individual projects when these projects have been developed in a disciplined manner within a development-controlled environment. PMID:23226305

Analysis and prediction of flow from local source in a river basin using a Neuro-fuzzy modeling tool.

PubMed

Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi

2007-10-01

Traditionally, the multiple linear regression technique has been one of the most widely used models in simulating hydrological time series. However, when the nonlinear phenomenon is significant, the multiple linear will fail to develop an appropriate predictive model. Recently, neuro-fuzzy systems have gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships. This study evaluated the potential of a neuro-fuzzy system as an alternative to the traditional statistical regression technique for the purpose of predicting flow from a local source in a river basin. The effectiveness of the proposed identification technique was demonstrated through a simulation study of the river flow time series of the Citarum River in Indonesia. Furthermore, in order to provide the uncertainty associated with the estimation of river flow, a Monte Carlo simulation was performed. As a comparison, a multiple linear regression analysis that was being used by the Citarum River Authority was also examined using various statistical indices. The simulation results using 95% confidence intervals indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model consistently underestimated the magnitude of high flow while the low and medium flow magnitudes were estimated closer to the observed data. The comparison of the prediction accuracy of the neuro-fuzzy and linear regression methods indicated that the neuro-fuzzy approach was more accurate in predicting river flow dynamics. The neuro-fuzzy model was able to improve the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of the multiple linear regression forecasts by about 13.52% and 10.73%, respectively. Considering its simplicity and efficiency, the neuro-fuzzy model is recommended as an alternative tool for modeling of flow dynamics in the study area.

The Timeseries Toolbox - A Web Application to Enable Accessible, Reproducible Time Series Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veatch, W.; Friedman, D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.

2017-12-01

The vast majority of data analyzed by climate researchers are repeated observations of physical process or time series data. This data lends itself of a common set of statistical techniques and models designed to determine trends and variability (e.g., seasonality) of these repeated observations. Often, these same techniques and models can be applied to a wide variety of different time series data. The Timeseries Toolbox is a web application designed to standardize and streamline these common approaches to time series analysis and modeling with particular attention to hydrologic time series used in climate preparedness and resilience planning and design by the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers. The application performs much of the pre-processing of time series data necessary for more complex techniques (e.g. interpolation, aggregation). With this tool, users can upload any dataset that conforms to a standard template and immediately begin applying these techniques to analyze their time series data.

Modeling, simulation, and estimation of optical turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Formwalt, Byron Paul

This dissertation documents three new contributions to simulation and modeling of optical turbulence. The first contribution is the formalization, optimization, and validation of a modeling technique called successively conditioned rendering (SCR). The SCR technique is empirically validated by comparing the statistical error of random phase screens generated with the technique. The second contribution is the derivation of the covariance delineation theorem, which provides theoretical bounds on the error associated with SCR. It is shown empirically that the theoretical bound may be used to predict relative algorithm performance. Therefore, the covariance delineation theorem is a powerful tool for optimizing SCR algorithms. For the third contribution, we introduce a new method for passively estimating optical turbulence parameters, and demonstrate the method using experimental data. The technique was demonstrated experimentally, using a 100 m horizontal path at 1.25 m above sun-heated tarmac on a clear afternoon. For this experiment, we estimated C2n ≈ 6.01 · 10-9 m-23 , l0 ≈ 17.9 mm, and L0 ≈ 15.5 m.

Statistical Evaluation of CRM-Simulated Cloud and Precipitation Structures Using Multi- sensor TRMM Measurements and Retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Posselt, D.; L'Ecuyer, T.; Matsui, T.

2009-05-01

Cloud resolving models are typically used to examine the characteristics of clouds and precipitation and their relationship to radiation and the large-scale circulation. As such, they are not required to reproduce the exact location of each observed convective system, much less each individual cloud. Some of the most relevant information about clouds and precipitation is provided by instruments located on polar-orbiting satellite platforms, but these observations are intermittent "snapshots" in time, making assessment of model performance challenging. In contrast to direct comparison, model results can be evaluated statistically. This avoids the requirement for the model to reproduce the observed systems, while returning valuable information on the performance of the model in a climate-relevant sense. The focus of this talk is a model evaluation study, in which updates to the microphysics scheme used in a three-dimensional version of the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model are evaluated using statistics of observed clouds, precipitation, and radiation. We present the results of multiday (non-equilibrium) simulations of organized deep convection using single- and double-moment versions of a the model's cloud microphysical scheme. Statistics of TRMM multi-sensor derived clouds, precipitation, and radiative fluxes are used to evaluate the GCE results, as are simulated TRMM measurements obtained using a sophisticated instrument simulator suite. We present advantages and disadvantages of performing model comparisons in retrieval and measurement space and conclude by motivating the use of data assimilation techniques for analyzing and improving model parameterizations.

Analysis of tribological behaviour of zirconia reinforced Al-SiC hybrid composites using statistical and artificial neural network technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arif, Sajjad; Tanwir Alam, Md; Ansari, Akhter H.; Bilal Naim Shaikh, Mohd; Arif Siddiqui, M.

2018-05-01

The tribological performance of aluminium hybrid composites reinforced with micro SiC (5 wt%) and nano zirconia (0, 3, 6 and 9 wt%) fabricated through powder metallurgy technique were investigated using statistical and artificial neural network (ANN) approach. The influence of zirconia reinforcement, sliding distance and applied load were analyzed with test based on full factorial design of experiments. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to evaluate the percentage contribution of each process parameters on wear loss. ANOVA approach suggested that wear loss be mainly influenced by sliding distance followed by zirconia reinforcement and applied load. Further, a feed forward back propagation neural network was applied on input/output date for predicting and analyzing the wear behaviour of fabricated composite. A very close correlation between experimental and ANN output were achieved by implementing the model. Finally, ANN model was effectively used to find the influence of various control factors on wear behaviour of hybrid composites.

An Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy-Based Technique to Identify and Quantify Fermentable Sugars in Pineapple Waste Valorization for Bioethanol Production

PubMed Central

Conesa, Claudia; García-Breijo, Eduardo; Loeff, Edwin; Seguí, Lucía; Fito, Pedro; Laguarda-Miró, Nicolás

2015-01-01

Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) has been used to develop a methodology able to identify and quantify fermentable sugars present in the enzymatic hydrolysis phase of second-generation bioethanol production from pineapple waste. Thus, a low-cost non-destructive system consisting of a stainless double needle electrode associated to an electronic equipment that allows the implementation of EIS was developed. In order to validate the system, different concentrations of glucose, fructose and sucrose were added to the pineapple waste and analyzed both individually and in combination. Next, statistical data treatment enabled the design of specific Artificial Neural Networks-based mathematical models for each one of the studied sugars and their respective combinations. The obtained prediction models are robust and reliable and they are considered statistically valid (CCR% > 93.443%). These results allow us to introduce this EIS-based technique as an easy, fast, non-destructive, and in-situ alternative to the traditional laboratory methods for enzymatic hydrolysis monitoring. PMID:26378537

Basis function models for animal movement

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hooten, Mevin B.; Johnson, Devin S.

2017-01-01

Advances in satellite-based data collection techniques have served as a catalyst for new statistical methodology to analyze these data. In wildlife ecological studies, satellite-based data and methodology have provided a wealth of information about animal space use and the investigation of individual-based animal–environment relationships. With the technology for data collection improving dramatically over time, we are left with massive archives of historical animal telemetry data of varying quality. While many contemporary statistical approaches for inferring movement behavior are specified in discrete time, we develop a flexible continuous-time stochastic integral equation framework that is amenable to reduced-rank second-order covariance parameterizations. We demonstrate how the associated first-order basis functions can be constructed to mimic behavioral characteristics in realistic trajectory processes using telemetry data from mule deer and mountain lion individuals in western North America. Our approach is parallelizable and provides inference for heterogenous trajectories using nonstationary spatial modeling techniques that are feasible for large telemetry datasets. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Evaluation of impression accuracy for a four-implant mandibular model--a digital approach.

PubMed

Stimmelmayr, Michael; Erdelt, Kurt; Güth, Jan-Frederik; Happe, Arndt; Beuer, Florian

2012-08-01

Implant-supported prosthodontics requires precise impressions to achieve a passive fit. Since the early 1990s, in vitro studies comparing different implant impression techniques were performed, capturing the data mostly mechanically. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of three different impression techniques digitally. Dental implants were inserted bilaterally in ten polymer lower-arch models at the positions of the first molars and canines. From each original model, three different impressions (A, transfer; B, pick-up; and C, splinted pick-up) were taken. Scan-bodies were mounted on the implants of the polymer and on the lab analogues of the stone models and digitized. The scan-body in position 36 (FDI) of the digitized original and master casts were each superimposed, and the deviations of the remaining three scan-bodies were measured three-dimensionally. The systematic error of digitizing the models was 13 μm for the polymer and 5 μm for the stone model. The mean discrepancies of the original model to the stone casts were 124 μm (±34) μm for the transfer technique, 116 (±46) μm for the pick-up technique, and 80 (±25) μm for the splinted pick-up technique. There were statistically significant discrepancies between the evaluated impression techniques (p ≤ 0.025; ANOVA test). The splinted pick-up impression showed the least deviation between original and stone model; transfer and pick-up techniques showed similar results. For better accuracy of implant-supported prosthodontics, the splinted pick-up technique should be used for impressions of four implants evenly spread in edentulous jaws.

Variation of Water Quality Parameters with Siltation Depth for River Ichamati Along International Border with Bangladesh Using Multivariate Statistical Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, P. K.; Pal, S.; Banerjee, G.; Biswas Roy, M.; Ray, D.; Majumder, A.

2014-12-01

River is considered as one of the main sources of freshwater all over the world. Hence analysis and maintenance of this water resource is globally considered a matter of major concern. This paper deals with the assessment of surface water quality of the Ichamati river using multivariate statistical techniques. Eight distinct surface water quality observation stations were located and samples were collected. For the samples collected statistical techniques were applied to the physico-chemical parameters and depth of siltation. In this paper cluster analysis is done to determine the relations between surface water quality and siltation depth of river Ichamati. Multiple regressions and mathematical equation modeling have been done to characterize surface water quality of Ichamati river on the basis of physico-chemical parameters. It was found that surface water quality of the downstream river was different from the water quality of the upstream. The analysis of the water quality parameters of the Ichamati river clearly indicate high pollution load on the river water which can be accounted to agricultural discharge, tidal effect and soil erosion. The results further reveal that with the increase in depth of siltation, water quality degraded.

Symposium review: Uncertainties in enteric methane inventories, measurement techniques, and prediction models.

PubMed

Hristov, A N; Kebreab, E; Niu, M; Oh, J; Bannink, A; Bayat, A R; Boland, T B; Brito, A F; Casper, D P; Crompton, L A; Dijkstra, J; Eugène, M; Garnsworthy, P C; Haque, N; Hellwing, A L F; Huhtanen, P; Kreuzer, M; Kuhla, B; Lund, P; Madsen, J; Martin, C; Moate, P J; Muetzel, S; Muñoz, C; Peiren, N; Powell, J M; Reynolds, C K; Schwarm, A; Shingfield, K J; Storlien, T M; Weisbjerg, M R; Yáñez-Ruiz, D R; Yu, Z

2018-04-18

Ruminant production systems are important contributors to anthropogenic methane (CH 4 ) emissions, but there are large uncertainties in national and global livestock CH 4 inventories. Sources of uncertainty in enteric CH 4 emissions include animal inventories, feed dry matter intake (DMI), ingredient and chemical composition of the diets, and CH 4 emission factors. There is also significant uncertainty associated with enteric CH 4 measurements. The most widely used techniques are respiration chambers, the sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) tracer technique, and the automated head-chamber system (GreenFeed; C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, SD). All 3 methods have been successfully used in a large number of experiments with dairy or beef cattle in various environmental conditions, although studies that compare techniques have reported inconsistent results. Although different types of models have been developed to predict enteric CH 4 emissions, relatively simple empirical (statistical) models have been commonly used for inventory purposes because of their broad applicability and ease of use compared with more detailed empirical and process-based mechanistic models. However, extant empirical models used to predict enteric CH 4 emissions suffer from narrow spatial focus, limited observations, and limitations of the statistical technique used. Therefore, prediction models must be developed from robust data sets that can only be generated through collaboration of scientists across the world. To achieve high prediction accuracy, these data sets should encompass a wide range of diets and production systems within regions and globally. Overall, enteric CH 4 prediction models are based on various animal or feed characteristic inputs but are dominated by DMI in one form or another. As a result, accurate prediction of DMI is essential for accurate prediction of livestock CH 4 emissions. Analysis of a large data set of individual dairy cattle data showed that simplified enteric CH 4 prediction models based on DMI alone or DMI and limited feed- or animal-related inputs can predict average CH 4 emission with a similar accuracy to more complex empirical models. These simplified models can be reliably used for emission inventory purposes. The Authors. Published by FASS Inc. and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Statistical analysis of whole-body absorption depending on anatomical human characteristics at a frequency of 2.1 GHz.

PubMed

Habachi, A El; Conil, E; Hadjem, A; Vazquez, E; Wong, M F; Gati, A; Fleury, G; Wiart, J

2010-04-07

In this paper, we propose identification of the morphological factors that may impact the whole-body averaged specific absorption rate (WBSAR). This study is conducted for the case of exposure to a front plane wave at a 2100 MHz frequency carrier. This study is based on the development of different regression models for estimating the WBSAR as a function of morphological factors. For this purpose, a database of 12 anatomical human models (phantoms) has been considered. Also, 18 supplementary phantoms obtained using the morphing technique were generated to build the required relation. This paper presents three models based on external morphological factors such as the body surface area, the body mass index or the body mass. These models show good results in estimating the WBSAR (<10%) for families obtained by the morphing technique, but these are still less accurate (30%) when applied to different original phantoms. This study stresses the importance of the internal morphological factors such as muscle and fat proportions in characterization of the WBSAR. The regression models are then improved using internal morphological factors with an estimation error of approximately 10% on the WBSAR. Finally, this study is suitable for establishing the statistical distribution of the WBSAR for a given population characterized by its morphology.

Statistical analysis of whole-body absorption depending on anatomical human characteristics at a frequency of 2.1 GHz

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Habachi, A.; Conil, E.; Hadjem, A.; Vazquez, E.; Wong, M. F.; Gati, A.; Fleury, G.; Wiart, J.

2010-04-01

In this paper, we propose identification of the morphological factors that may impact the whole-body averaged specific absorption rate (WBSAR). This study is conducted for the case of exposure to a front plane wave at a 2100 MHz frequency carrier. This study is based on the development of different regression models for estimating the WBSAR as a function of morphological factors. For this purpose, a database of 12 anatomical human models (phantoms) has been considered. Also, 18 supplementary phantoms obtained using the morphing technique were generated to build the required relation. This paper presents three models based on external morphological factors such as the body surface area, the body mass index or the body mass. These models show good results in estimating the WBSAR (<10%) for families obtained by the morphing technique, but these are still less accurate (30%) when applied to different original phantoms. This study stresses the importance of the internal morphological factors such as muscle and fat proportions in characterization of the WBSAR. The regression models are then improved using internal morphological factors with an estimation error of approximately 10% on the WBSAR. Finally, this study is suitable for establishing the statistical distribution of the WBSAR for a given population characterized by its morphology.

Application of Linear Mixed-Effects Models in Human Neuroscience Research: A Comparison with Pearson Correlation in Two Auditory Electrophysiology Studies.

PubMed

Koerner, Tess K; Zhang, Yang

2017-02-27

Neurophysiological studies are often designed to examine relationships between measures from different testing conditions, time points, or analysis techniques within the same group of participants. Appropriate statistical techniques that can take into account repeated measures and multivariate predictor variables are integral and essential to successful data analysis and interpretation. This work implements and compares conventional Pearson correlations and linear mixed-effects (LME) regression models using data from two recently published auditory electrophysiology studies. For the specific research questions in both studies, the Pearson correlation test is inappropriate for determining strengths between the behavioral responses for speech-in-noise recognition and the multiple neurophysiological measures as the neural responses across listening conditions were simply treated as independent measures. In contrast, the LME models allow a systematic approach to incorporate both fixed-effect and random-effect terms to deal with the categorical grouping factor of listening conditions, between-subject baseline differences in the multiple measures, and the correlational structure among the predictor variables. Together, the comparative data demonstrate the advantages as well as the necessity to apply mixed-effects models to properly account for the built-in relationships among the multiple predictor variables, which has important implications for proper statistical modeling and interpretation of human behavior in terms of neural correlates and biomarkers.

Right-Sizing Statistical Models for Longitudinal Data

PubMed Central

Wood, Phillip K.; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M.

2015-01-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to “right-size” the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting overly parsimonious models to more complex better fitting alternatives, and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically under-identified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A three-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation/covariation patterns. The orthogonal, free-curve slope-intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered as a general model which includes, as special cases, many models including the Factor Mean model (FM, McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), Repeated Measures MANOVA, and the Linear Slope Intercept (LinearSI) Growth Model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparison of several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. PMID:26237507

Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

2015-12-01

Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

From fields to objects: A review of geographic boundary analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacquez, G. M.; Maruca, S.; Fortin, M.-J.

Geographic boundary analysis is a relatively new approach unfamiliar to many spatial analysts. It is best viewed as a technique for defining objects - geographic boundaries - on spatial fields, and for evaluating the statistical significance of characteristics of those boundary objects. This is accomplished using null spatial models representative of the spatial processes expected in the absence of boundary-generating phenomena. Close ties to the object-field dialectic eminently suit boundary analysis to GIS data. The majority of existing spatial methods are field-based in that they describe, estimate, or predict how attributes (variables defining the field) vary through geographic space. Such methods are appropriate for field representations but not object representations. As the object-field paradigm gains currency in geographic information science, appropriate techniques for the statistical analysis of objects are required. The methods reviewed in this paper are a promising foundation. Geographic boundary analysis is clearly a valuable addition to the spatial statistical toolbox. This paper presents the philosophy of, and motivations for geographic boundary analysis. It defines commonly used statistics for quantifying boundaries and their characteristics, as well as simulation procedures for evaluating their significance. We review applications of these techniques, with the objective of making this promising approach accessible to the GIS-spatial analysis community. We also describe the implementation of these methods within geographic boundary analysis software: GEM.

Assessing atrophy measurement techniques in dementia: Results from the MIRIAD atrophy challenge.

PubMed

Cash, David M; Frost, Chris; Iheme, Leonardo O; Ünay, Devrim; Kandemir, Melek; Fripp, Jurgen; Salvado, Olivier; Bourgeat, Pierrick; Reuter, Martin; Fischl, Bruce; Lorenzi, Marco; Frisoni, Giovanni B; Pennec, Xavier; Pierson, Ronald K; Gunter, Jeffrey L; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Guizard, Nicolas; Fonov, Vladimir S; Collins, D Louis; Modat, Marc; Cardoso, M Jorge; Leung, Kelvin K; Wang, Hongzhi; Das, Sandhitsu R; Yushkevich, Paul A; Malone, Ian B; Fox, Nick C; Schott, Jonathan M; Ourselin, Sebastien

2015-12-01

Structural MRI is widely used for investigating brain atrophy in many neurodegenerative disorders, with several research groups developing and publishing techniques to provide quantitative assessments of this longitudinal change. Often techniques are compared through computation of required sample size estimates for future clinical trials. However interpretation of such comparisons is rendered complex because, despite using the same publicly available cohorts, the various techniques have been assessed with different data exclusions and different statistical analysis models. We created the MIRIAD atrophy challenge in order to test various capabilities of atrophy measurement techniques. The data consisted of 69 subjects (46 Alzheimer's disease, 23 control) who were scanned multiple (up to twelve) times at nine visits over a follow-up period of one to two years, resulting in 708 total image sets. Nine participating groups from 6 countries completed the challenge by providing volumetric measurements of key structures (whole brain, lateral ventricle, left and right hippocampi) for each dataset and atrophy measurements of these structures for each time point pair (both forward and backward) of a given subject. From these results, we formally compared techniques using exactly the same dataset. First, we assessed the repeatability of each technique using rates obtained from short intervals where no measurable atrophy is expected. For those measures that provided direct measures of atrophy between pairs of images, we also assessed symmetry and transitivity. Then, we performed a statistical analysis in a consistent manner using linear mixed effect models. The models, one for repeated measures of volume made at multiple time-points and a second for repeated "direct" measures of change in brain volume, appropriately allowed for the correlation between measures made on the same subject and were shown to fit the data well. From these models, we obtained estimates of the distribution of atrophy rates in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) and control groups and of required sample sizes to detect a 25% treatment effect, in relation to healthy ageing, with 95% significance and 80% power over follow-up periods of 6, 12, and 24months. Uncertainty in these estimates, and head-to-head comparisons between techniques, were carried out using the bootstrap. The lateral ventricles provided the most stable measurements, followed by the brain. The hippocampi had much more variability across participants, likely because of differences in segmentation protocol and less distinct boundaries. Most methods showed no indication of bias based on the short-term interval results, and direct measures provided good consistency in terms of symmetry and transitivity. The resulting annualized rates of change derived from the model ranged from, for whole brain: -1.4% to -2.2% (AD) and -0.35% to -0.67% (control), for ventricles: 4.6% to 10.2% (AD) and 1.2% to 3.4% (control), and for hippocampi: -1.5% to -7.0% (AD) and -0.4% to -1.4% (control). There were large and statistically significant differences in the sample size requirements between many of the techniques. The lowest sample sizes for each of these structures, for a trial with a 12month follow-up period, were 242 (95% CI: 154 to 422) for whole brain, 168 (95% CI: 112 to 282) for ventricles, 190 (95% CI: 146 to 268) for left hippocampi, and 158 (95% CI: 116 to 228) for right hippocampi. This analysis represents one of the most extensive statistical comparisons of a large number of different atrophy measurement techniques from around the globe. The challenge data will remain online and publicly available so that other groups can assess their methods. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessing atrophy measurement techniques in dementia: Results from the MIRIAD atrophy challenge

PubMed Central

Cash, David M.; Frost, Chris; Iheme, Leonardo O.; Ünay, Devrim; Kandemir, Melek; Fripp, Jurgen; Salvado, Olivier; Bourgeat, Pierrick; Reuter, Martin; Fischl, Bruce; Lorenzi, Marco; Frisoni, Giovanni B.; Pennec, Xavier; Pierson, Ronald K.; Gunter, Jeffrey L.; Senjem, Matthew L.; Jack, Clifford R.; Guizard, Nicolas; Fonov, Vladimir S.; Collins, D. Louis; Modat, Marc; Cardoso, M. Jorge; Leung, Kelvin K.; Wang, Hongzhi; Das, Sandhitsu R.; Yushkevich, Paul A.; Malone, Ian B.; Fox, Nick C.; Schott, Jonathan M.; Ourselin, Sebastien

2015-01-01

Structural MRI is widely used for investigating brain atrophy in many neurodegenerative disorders, with several research groups developing and publishing techniques to provide quantitative assessments of this longitudinal change. Often techniques are compared through computation of required sample size estimates for future clinical trials. However interpretation of such comparisons is rendered complex because, despite using the same publicly available cohorts, the various techniques have been assessed with different data exclusions and different statistical analysis models. We created the MIRIAD atrophy challenge in order to test various capabilities of atrophy measurement techniques. The data consisted of 69 subjects (46 Alzheimer's disease, 23 control) who were scanned multiple (up to twelve) times at nine visits over a follow-up period of one to two years, resulting in 708 total image sets. Nine participating groups from 6 countries completed the challenge by providing volumetric measurements of key structures (whole brain, lateral ventricle, left and right hippocampi) for each dataset and atrophy measurements of these structures for each time point pair (both forward and backward) of a given subject. From these results, we formally compared techniques using exactly the same dataset. First, we assessed the repeatability of each technique using rates obtained from short intervals where no measurable atrophy is expected. For those measures that provided direct measures of atrophy between pairs of images, we also assessed symmetry and transitivity. Then, we performed a statistical analysis in a consistent manner using linear mixed effect models. The models, one for repeated measures of volume made at multiple time-points and a second for repeated “direct” measures of change in brain volume, appropriately allowed for the correlation between measures made on the same subject and were shown to fit the data well. From these models, we obtained estimates of the distribution of atrophy rates in the Alzheimer's disease (AD) and control groups and of required sample sizes to detect a 25% treatment effect, in relation to healthy ageing, with 95% significance and 80% power over follow-up periods of 6, 12, and 24 months. Uncertainty in these estimates, and head-to-head comparisons between techniques, were carried out using the bootstrap. The lateral ventricles provided the most stable measurements, followed by the brain. The hippocampi had much more variability across participants, likely because of differences in segmentation protocol and less distinct boundaries. Most methods showed no indication of bias based on the short-term interval results, and direct measures provided good consistency in terms of symmetry and transitivity. The resulting annualized rates of change derived from the model ranged from, for whole brain: − 1.4% to − 2.2% (AD) and − 0.35% to − 0.67% (control), for ventricles: 4.6% to 10.2% (AD) and 1.2% to 3.4% (control), and for hippocampi: − 1.5% to − 7.0% (AD) and − 0.4% to − 1.4% (control). There were large and statistically significant differences in the sample size requirements between many of the techniques. The lowest sample sizes for each of these structures, for a trial with a 12 month follow-up period, were 242 (95% CI: 154 to 422) for whole brain, 168 (95% CI: 112 to 282) for ventricles, 190 (95% CI: 146 to 268) for left hippocampi, and 158 (95% CI: 116 to 228) for right hippocampi. This analysis represents one of the most extensive statistical comparisons of a large number of different atrophy measurement techniques from around the globe. The challenge data will remain online and publicly available so that other groups can assess their methods. PMID:26275383

Parametric Model Based On Imputations Techniques for Partly Interval Censored Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zyoud, Abdallah; Elfaki, F. A. M.; Hrairi, Meftah

2017-12-01

The term ‘survival analysis’ has been used in a broad sense to describe collection of statistical procedures for data analysis. In this case, outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs where the time to failure of a specific experimental unit might be censored which can be right, left, interval, and Partly Interval Censored data (PIC). In this paper, analysis of this model was conducted based on parametric Cox model via PIC data. Moreover, several imputation techniques were used, which are: midpoint, left & right point, random, mean, and median. Maximum likelihood estimate was considered to obtain the estimated survival function. These estimations were then compared with the existing model, such as: Turnbull and Cox model based on clinical trial data (breast cancer data), for which it showed the validity of the proposed model. Result of data set indicated that the parametric of Cox model proved to be more superior in terms of estimation of survival functions, likelihood ratio tests, and their P-values. Moreover, based on imputation techniques; the midpoint, random, mean, and median showed better results with respect to the estimation of survival function.

a Single-Exposure Dual-Energy Computed Radiography Technique for Improved Nodule Detection and Classification in Chest Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zink, Frank Edward

The detection and classification of pulmonary nodules is of great interest in chest radiography. Nodules are often indicative of primary cancer, and their detection is particularly important in asymptomatic patients. The ability to classify nodules as calcified or non-calcified is important because calcification is a positive indicator that the nodule is benign. Dual-energy methods offer the potential to improve both the detection and classification of nodules by allowing the formation of material-selective images. Tissue-selective images can improve detection by virtue of the elimination of obscuring rib structure. Bone -selective images are essentially calcium images, allowing classification of the nodule. A dual-energy technique is introduced which uses a computed radiography system to acquire dual-energy chest radiographs in a single-exposure. All aspects of the dual-energy technique are described, with particular emphasis on scatter-correction, beam-hardening correction, and noise-reduction algorithms. The adaptive noise-reduction algorithm employed improves material-selective signal-to-noise ratio by up to a factor of seven with minimal sacrifice in selectivity. A clinical comparison study is described, undertaken to compare the dual-energy technique to conventional chest radiography for the tasks of nodule detection and classification. Observer performance data were collected using the Free Response Observer Characteristic (FROC) method and the bi-normal Alternative FROC (AFROC) performance model. Results of the comparison study, analyzed using two common multiple observer statistical models, showed that the dual-energy technique was superior to conventional chest radiography for detection of nodules at a statistically significant level (p < .05). Discussion of the comparison study emphasizes the unique combination of data collection and analysis techniques employed, as well as the limitations of comparison techniques in the larger context of technology assessment.

Statistical Downscaling in Multi-dimensional Wave Climate Forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, P.; Méndez, F. J.; Medina, R.; Losada, I. J.; Cofiño, A. S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2009-04-01

Wave climate at a particular site is defined by the statistical distribution of sea state parameters, such as significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction, wind velocity, wind direction and storm surge. Nowadays, long-term time series of these parameters are available from reanalysis databases obtained by numerical models. The Self-Organizing Map (SOM) technique is applied to characterize multi-dimensional wave climate, obtaining the relevant "wave types" spanning the historical variability. This technique summarizes multi-dimension of wave climate in terms of a set of clusters projected in low-dimensional lattice with a spatial organization, providing Probability Density Functions (PDFs) on the lattice. On the other hand, wind and storm surge depend on instantaneous local large-scale sea level pressure (SLP) fields while waves depend on the recent history of these fields (say, 1 to 5 days). Thus, these variables are associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. In this work, a nearest-neighbors analog method is used to predict monthly multi-dimensional wave climate. This method establishes relationships between the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from numerical models (SLP fields as predictors) with local wave databases of observations (monthly wave climate SOM PDFs as predictand) to set up statistical models. A wave reanalysis database, developed by Puertos del Estado (Ministerio de Fomento), is considered as historical time series of local variables. The simultaneous SLP fields calculated by NCEP atmospheric reanalysis are used as predictors. Several applications with different size of sea level pressure grid and with different temporal domain resolution are compared to obtain the optimal statistical model that better represents the monthly wave climate at a particular site. In this work we examine the potential skill of this downscaling approach considering perfect-model conditions, but we will also analyze the suitability of this methodology to be used for seasonal forecast and for long-term climate change scenario projection of wave climate.

Statistical shape modelling to aid surgical planning: associations between surgical parameters and head shapes following spring-assisted cranioplasty.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Florez, Naiara; Bruse, Jan L; Borghi, Alessandro; Vercruysse, Herman; Ong, Juling; James, Greg; Pennec, Xavier; Dunaway, David J; Jeelani, N U Owase; Schievano, Silvia

2017-10-01

Spring-assisted cranioplasty is performed to correct the long and narrow head shape of children with sagittal synostosis. Such corrective surgery involves osteotomies and the placement of spring-like distractors, which gradually expand to widen the skull until removal about 4 months later. Due to its dynamic nature, associations between surgical parameters and post-operative 3D head shape features are difficult to comprehend. The current study aimed at applying population-based statistical shape modelling to gain insight into how the choice of surgical parameters such as craniotomy size and spring positioning affects post-surgical head shape. Twenty consecutive patients with sagittal synostosis who underwent spring-assisted cranioplasty at Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children (London, UK) were prospectively recruited. Using a nonparametric statistical modelling technique based on mathematical currents, a 3D head shape template was computed from surface head scans of sagittal patients after spring removal. Partial least squares (PLS) regression was employed to quantify and visualise trends of localised head shape changes associated with the surgical parameters recorded during spring insertion: anterior-posterior and lateral craniotomy dimensions, anterior spring position and distance between anterior and posterior springs. Bivariate correlations between surgical parameters and corresponding PLS shape vectors demonstrated that anterior-posterior (Pearson's [Formula: see text]) and lateral craniotomy dimensions (Spearman's [Formula: see text]), as well as the position of the anterior spring ([Formula: see text]) and the distance between both springs ([Formula: see text]) on average had significant effects on head shapes at the time of spring removal. Such effects were visualised on 3D models. Population-based analysis of 3D post-operative medical images via computational statistical modelling tools allowed for detection of novel associations between surgical parameters and head shape features achieved following spring-assisted cranioplasty. The techniques described here could be extended to other cranio-maxillofacial procedures in order to assess post-operative outcomes and ultimately facilitate surgical decision making.

The Statistical Analysis Techniques to Support the NGNP Fuel Performance Experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bihn T. Pham; Jeffrey J. Einerson

2010-06-01

This paper describes the development and application of statistical analysis techniques to support the AGR experimental program on NGNP fuel performance. The experiments conducted in the Idaho National Laboratory’s Advanced Test Reactor employ fuel compacts placed in a graphite cylinder shrouded by a steel capsule. The tests are instrumented with thermocouples embedded in graphite blocks and the target quantity (fuel/graphite temperature) is regulated by the He-Ne gas mixture that fills the gap volume. Three techniques for statistical analysis, namely control charting, correlation analysis, and regression analysis, are implemented in the SAS-based NGNP Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) for automatedmore » processing and qualification of the AGR measured data. The NDMAS also stores daily neutronic (power) and thermal (heat transfer) code simulation results along with the measurement data, allowing for their combined use and comparative scrutiny. The ultimate objective of this work includes (a) a multi-faceted system for data monitoring and data accuracy testing, (b) identification of possible modes of diagnostics deterioration and changes in experimental conditions, (c) qualification of data for use in code validation, and (d) identification and use of data trends to support effective control of test conditions with respect to the test target. Analysis results and examples given in the paper show the three statistical analysis techniques providing a complementary capability to warn of thermocouple failures. It also suggests that the regression analysis models relating calculated fuel temperatures and thermocouple readings can enable online regulation of experimental parameters (i.e. gas mixture content), to effectively maintain the target quantity (fuel temperature) within a given range.« less

A hybrid SEA/modal technique for modeling structural-acoustic interior noise in rotorcraft.

PubMed

Jayachandran, V; Bonilha, M W

2003-03-01

This paper describes a hybrid technique that combines Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) predictions for structural vibration with acoustic modal summation techniques to predict interior noise levels in rotorcraft. The method was applied for predicting the sound field inside a mock-up of the interior panel system of the Sikorsky S-92 helicopter. The vibration amplitudes of the frame and panel systems were predicted using a detailed SEA model and these were used as inputs to the model of the interior acoustic space. The spatial distribution of the vibration field on individual panels, and their coupling to the acoustic space were modeled using stochastic techniques. Leakage and nonresonant transmission components were accounted for using space-averaged values obtained from a SEA model of the complete structural-acoustic system. Since the cabin geometry was quite simple, the modeling of the interior acoustic space was performed using a standard modal summation technique. Sound pressure levels predicted by this approach at specific microphone locations were compared with measured data. Agreement within 3 dB in one-third octave bands above 40 Hz was observed. A large discrepancy in the one-third octave band in which the first acoustic mode is resonant (31.5 Hz) was observed. Reasons for such a discrepancy are discussed in the paper. The developed technique provides a method for modeling helicopter cabin interior noise in the frequency mid-range where neither FEA nor SEA is individually effective or accurate.

Summary goodness-of-fit statistics for binary generalized linear models with noncanonical link functions.

PubMed

Canary, Jana D; Blizzard, Leigh; Barry, Ronald P; Hosmer, David W; Quinn, Stephen J

2016-05-01

Generalized linear models (GLM) with a canonical logit link function are the primary modeling technique used to relate a binary outcome to predictor variables. However, noncanonical links can offer more flexibility, producing convenient analytical quantities (e.g., probit GLMs in toxicology) and desired measures of effect (e.g., relative risk from log GLMs). Many summary goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics exist for logistic GLM. Their properties make the development of GOF statistics relatively straightforward, but it can be more difficult under noncanonical links. Although GOF tests for logistic GLM with continuous covariates (GLMCC) have been applied to GLMCCs with log links, we know of no GOF tests in the literature specifically developed for GLMCCs that can be applied regardless of link function chosen. We generalize the Tsiatis GOF statistic originally developed for logistic GLMCCs, (TG), so that it can be applied under any link function. Further, we show that the algebraically related Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) and Pigeon-Heyse (J(2) ) statistics can be applied directly. In a simulation study, TG, HL, and J(2) were used to evaluate the fit of probit, log-log, complementary log-log, and log models, all calculated with a common grouping method. The TG statistic consistently maintained Type I error rates, while those of HL and J(2) were often lower than expected if terms with little influence were included. Generally, the statistics had similar power to detect an incorrect model. An exception occurred when a log GLMCC was incorrectly fit to data generated from a logistic GLMCC. In this case, TG had more power than HL or J(2) . © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/London School of Economics.

Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land use change. Finally, the major contributions to the science are presented along with valuable directions for future research.

Using Patient Demographics and Statistical Modeling to Predict Knee Tibia Component Sizing in Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Ren, Anna N; Neher, Robert E; Bell, Tyler; Grimm, James

2018-06-01

Preoperative planning is important to achieve successful implantation in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). However, traditional TKA templating techniques are not accurate enough to predict the component size to a very close range. With the goal of developing a general predictive statistical model using patient demographic information, ordinal logistic regression was applied to build a proportional odds model to predict the tibia component size. The study retrospectively collected the data of 1992 primary Persona Knee System TKA procedures. Of them, 199 procedures were randomly selected as testing data and the rest of the data were randomly partitioned between model training data and model evaluation data with a ratio of 7:3. Different models were trained and evaluated on the training and validation data sets after data exploration. The final model had patient gender, age, weight, and height as independent variables and predicted the tibia size within 1 size difference 96% of the time on the validation data, 94% of the time on the testing data, and 92% on a prospective cadaver data set. The study results indicated the statistical model built by ordinal logistic regression can increase the accuracy of tibia sizing information for Persona Knee preoperative templating. This research shows statistical modeling may be used with radiographs to dramatically enhance the templating accuracy, efficiency, and quality. In general, this methodology can be applied to other TKA products when the data are applicable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data.

PubMed

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-05-15

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way.

Estimation of integral curves from high angular resolution diffusion imaging (HARDI) data

PubMed Central

Carmichael, Owen; Sakhanenko, Lyudmila

2015-01-01

We develop statistical methodology for a popular brain imaging technique HARDI based on the high order tensor model by Özarslan and Mareci [10]. We investigate how uncertainty in the imaging procedure propagates through all levels of the model: signals, tensor fields, vector fields, and fibers. We construct asymptotically normal estimators of the integral curves or fibers which allow us to trace the fibers together with confidence ellipsoids. The procedure is computationally intense as it blends linear algebra concepts from high order tensors with asymptotical statistical analysis. The theoretical results are illustrated on simulated and real datasets. This work generalizes the statistical methodology proposed for low angular resolution diffusion tensor imaging by Carmichael and Sakhanenko [3], to several fibers per voxel. It is also a pioneering statistical work on tractography from HARDI data. It avoids all the typical limitations of the deterministic tractography methods and it delivers the same information as probabilistic tractography methods. Our method is computationally cheap and it provides well-founded mathematical and statistical framework where diverse functionals on fibers, directions and tensors can be studied in a systematic and rigorous way. PMID:25937674

Automatic identification of bacterial types using statistical imaging methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trattner, Sigal; Greenspan, Hayit; Tepper, Gapi; Abboud, Shimon

2003-05-01

The objective of the current study is to develop an automatic tool to identify bacterial types using computer-vision and statistical modeling techniques. Bacteriophage (phage)-typing methods are used to identify and extract representative profiles of bacterial types, such as the Staphylococcus Aureus. Current systems rely on the subjective reading of plaque profiles by human expert. This process is time-consuming and prone to errors, especially as technology is enabling the increase in the number of phages used for typing. The statistical methodology presented in this work, provides for an automated, objective and robust analysis of visual data, along with the ability to cope with increasing data volumes.

Comparison analysis for classification algorithm in data mining and the study of model use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Junde; Zhang, Defu

2018-04-01

As a key technique in data mining, classification algorithm was received extensive attention. Through an experiment of classification algorithm in UCI data set, we gave a comparison analysis method for the different algorithms and the statistical test was used here. Than that, an adaptive diagnosis model for preventive electricity stealing and leakage was given as a specific case in the paper.

Response statistics of rotating shaft with non-linear elastic restoring forces by path integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaidai, Oleg; Naess, Arvid; Dimentberg, Michael

2017-07-01

Extreme statistics of random vibrations is studied for a Jeffcott rotor under uniaxial white noise excitation. Restoring force is modelled as elastic non-linear; comparison is done with linearized restoring force to see the force non-linearity effect on the response statistics. While for the linear model analytical solutions and stability conditions are available, it is not generally the case for non-linear system except for some special cases. The statistics of non-linear case is studied by applying path integration (PI) method, which is based on the Markov property of the coupled dynamic system. The Jeffcott rotor response statistics can be obtained by solving the Fokker-Planck (FP) equation of the 4D dynamic system. An efficient implementation of PI algorithm is applied, namely fast Fourier transform (FFT) is used to simulate dynamic system additive noise. The latter allows significantly reduce computational time, compared to the classical PI. Excitation is modelled as Gaussian white noise, however any kind distributed white noise can be implemented with the same PI technique. Also multidirectional Markov noise can be modelled with PI in the same way as unidirectional. PI is accelerated by using Monte Carlo (MC) estimated joint probability density function (PDF) as initial input. Symmetry of dynamic system was utilized to afford higher mesh resolution. Both internal (rotating) and external damping are included in mechanical model of the rotor. The main advantage of using PI rather than MC is that PI offers high accuracy in the probability distribution tail. The latter is of critical importance for e.g. extreme value statistics, system reliability, and first passage probability.

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

An overview assessment of the effectiveness and global popularity of some methods used in measuring riverbank filtration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Umar, Da'u. Abba; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin; Sulaiman, Wan Nor Azmin; Kura, Nura Umar; Tukur, Abubakar Ibrahim

2017-07-01

This paper presents an overview assessment of the effectiveness and popularity of some methods adopted in measuring river bank filtration (RBF). The review is aim at understanding some of the appropriate methods used in measuring riverbank filtration, their frequencies of use, and their spatial applications worldwide. The most commonly used methods and techniques in riverbank filtration studies are: Geographical Information System (GIS) (site suitability/surface characterization), Geophysical, Pumping Test and borehole logging (sub-surface), Hydrochemical, Geochemical, and Statistical techniques (hydrochemistry of water), Numerical modelling, Tracer techniques and Stable Isotope Approaches (degradation and contaminants attenuation processes). From the summary in Table 1, hydrochemical, numerical modelling and pumping test are the frequently used and popular methods, while geophysical, GIS and statistical techniques are the less attractive. However, many researchers prefer integrated approach especially that riverbank filtration studies involve diverse and interrelated components. In term of spatial popularity and successful implementation of riverbank filtration, it is explicitly clear that the popularity and success of the technology is more pronounced in developed countries like U.S. and most European countries. However, it is gradually gaining ground in Asia and Africa, although it is not far from its infancy state in Africa, where the technology could be more important considering the economic status of the region and its peculiarity when it comes to water resources predicaments.

Four-dimensional modeling of recent vertical movements in the area of the southern California uplift

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vanicek, Petr; Elliot, Michael R.; Castle, Robert O.

1979-01-01

This paper describes an analytical technique that utilizes scattered geodetic relevelings and tide-gauge records to portray Recent vertical crustal movements that may have been characterized by spasmodic changes in velocity. The technique is based on the fitting of a time-varying algebraic surface of prescribed degree to the geodetic data treated as tilt elements and to tide-gauge readings treated as point movements. Desired variations in time can be selected as any combination of powers of vertical movement velocity and episodic events. The state of the modeled vertical displacement can be shown for any number of dates for visual display. Statistical confidence limits of the modeled displacements, derived from the density of measurements in both space and time, line length, and accuracy of input data, are also provided. The capabilities of the technique are demonstrated on selected data from the region of the southern California uplift. 

Derivative Trade Optimizing Model Utilizing GP Based on Behavioral Finance Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsumura, Koki; Kawamoto, Masaru

This paper proposed a new technique which makes the strategy trees for the derivative (option) trading investment decision based on the behavioral finance theory and optimizes it using evolutionary computation, in order to achieve high profitability. The strategy tree uses a technical analysis based on a statistical, experienced technique for the investment decision. The trading model is represented by various technical indexes, and the strategy tree is optimized by the genetic programming(GP) which is one of the evolutionary computations. Moreover, this paper proposed a method using the prospect theory based on the behavioral finance theory to set psychological bias for profit and deficit and attempted to select the appropriate strike price of option for the higher investment efficiency. As a result, this technique produced a good result and found the effectiveness of this trading model by the optimized dealings strategy.

Simulation of an ensemble of future climate time series with an hourly weather generator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Kim, J.

2010-12-01

There is evidence that climate change is occurring in many regions of the world. The necessity of climate change predictions at the local scale and fine temporal resolution is thus warranted for hydrological, ecological, geomorphological, and agricultural applications that can provide thematic insights into the corresponding impacts. Numerous downscaling techniques have been proposed to bridge the gap between the spatial scales adopted in General Circulation Models (GCM) and regional analyses. Nevertheless, the time and spatial resolutions obtained as well as the type of meteorological variables may not be sufficient for detailed studies of climate change effects at the local scales. In this context, this study presents a stochastic downscaling technique that makes use of an hourly weather generator to simulate time series of predicted future climate. Using a Bayesian approach, the downscaling procedure derives distributions of factors of change for several climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of GCMs. Factors of change are sampled from their distributions using a Monte Carlo technique to entirely account for the probabilistic information obtained with the Bayesian multi-model ensemble. Factors of change are subsequently applied to the statistics derived from observations to re-evaluate the parameters of the weather generator. The weather generator can reproduce a wide set of climate variables and statistics over a range of temporal scales, from extremes, to the low-frequency inter-annual variability. The final result of such a procedure is the generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered as representative of future climate, as inferred from GCMs. The generated ensemble of scenarios also accounts for the uncertainty derived from multiple GCMs used in downscaling. Applications of the procedure in reproducing present and future climates are presented for different locations world-wide: Tucson (AZ), Detroit (MI), and Firenze (Italy). The stochastic downscaling is carried out with eight GCMs from the CMIP3 multi-model dataset (IPCC 4AR, A1B scenario).

Quantile regression for the statistical analysis of immunological data with many non-detects.

PubMed

Eilers, Paul H C; Röder, Esther; Savelkoul, Huub F J; van Wijk, Roy Gerth

2012-07-07

Immunological parameters are hard to measure. A well-known problem is the occurrence of values below the detection limit, the non-detects. Non-detects are a nuisance, because classical statistical analyses, like ANOVA and regression, cannot be applied. The more advanced statistical techniques currently available for the analysis of datasets with non-detects can only be used if a small percentage of the data are non-detects. Quantile regression, a generalization of percentiles to regression models, models the median or higher percentiles and tolerates very high numbers of non-detects. We present a non-technical introduction and illustrate it with an implementation to real data from a clinical trial. We show that by using quantile regression, groups can be compared and that meaningful linear trends can be computed, even if more than half of the data consists of non-detects. Quantile regression is a valuable addition to the statistical methods that can be used for the analysis of immunological datasets with non-detects.

A proposed technique for vehicle tracking, direction, and speed determination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, Paul S.; Angaye, Cleopas O.; Fisher, Howard P.

2004-12-01

A technique for recognition of vehicles in terms of direction, distance, and rate of change is presented. This represents very early work on this problem with significant hurdles still to be addressed. These are discussed in the paper. However, preliminary results also show promise for this technique for use in security and defense environments where the penetration of a perimeter is of concern. The material described herein indicates a process whereby the protection of a barrier could be augmented by computers and installed cameras assisting the individuals charged with this responsibility. The technique we employ is called Finite Inductive Sequences (FI) and is proposed as a means for eliminating data requiring storage and recognition where conventional mathematical models don"t eliminate enough and statistical models eliminate too much. FI is a simple idea and is based upon a symbol push-out technique that allows the order (inductive base) of the model to be set to an a priori value for all derived rules. The rules are obtained from exemplar data sets, and are derived by a technique called Factoring, yielding a table of rules called a Ruling. These rules can then be used in pattern recognition applications such as described in this paper.

Verification of Eulerian-Eulerian and Eulerian-Lagrangian simulations for fluid-particle flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Bo; Patel, Ravi G.; Capecelatro, Jesse; Desjardins, Olivier; Fox, Rodney O.

2017-11-01

In this work, we study the performance of three simulation techniques for fluid-particle flows: (1) a volume-filtered Euler-Lagrange approach (EL), (2) a quadrature-based moment method using the anisotropic Gaussian closure (AG), and (3) a traditional two-fluid model. By simulating two problems: particles in frozen homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT), and cluster-induced turbulence (CIT), the convergence of the methods under grid refinement is found to depend on the simulation method and the specific problem, with CIT simulations facing fewer difficulties than HIT. Although EL converges under refinement for both HIT and CIT, its statistical results exhibit dependence on the techniques used to extract statistics for the particle phase. For HIT, converging both EE methods (TFM and AG) poses challenges, while for CIT, AG and EL produce similar results. Overall, all three methods face challenges when trying to extract converged, parameter-independent statistics due to the presence of shocks in the particle phase. National Science Foundation and National Energy Technology Laboratory.

Verification of Eulerian-Eulerian and Eulerian-Lagrangian simulations for turbulent fluid-particle flows

DOE PAGES

Patel, Ravi G.; Desjardins, Olivier; Kong, Bo; ...

2017-09-01

Here, we present a verification study of three simulation techniques for fluid–particle flows, including an Euler–Lagrange approach (EL) inspired by Jackson's seminal work on fluidized particles, a quadrature–based moment method based on the anisotropic Gaussian closure (AG), and the traditional two-fluid model. We perform simulations of two problems: particles in frozen homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) and cluster-induced turbulence (CIT). For verification, we evaluate various techniques for extracting statistics from EL and study the convergence properties of the three methods under grid refinement. The convergence is found to depend on the simulation method and on the problem, with CIT simulations posingmore » fewer difficulties than HIT. Specifically, EL converges under refinement for both HIT and CIT, but statistics exhibit dependence on the postprocessing parameters. For CIT, AG produces similar results to EL. For HIT, converging both TFM and AG poses challenges. Overall, extracting converged, parameter-independent Eulerian statistics remains a challenge for all methods.« less

Verification of Eulerian-Eulerian and Eulerian-Lagrangian simulations for turbulent fluid-particle flows

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Patel, Ravi G.; Desjardins, Olivier; Kong, Bo

Here, we present a verification study of three simulation techniques for fluid–particle flows, including an Euler–Lagrange approach (EL) inspired by Jackson's seminal work on fluidized particles, a quadrature–based moment method based on the anisotropic Gaussian closure (AG), and the traditional two-fluid model. We perform simulations of two problems: particles in frozen homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) and cluster-induced turbulence (CIT). For verification, we evaluate various techniques for extracting statistics from EL and study the convergence properties of the three methods under grid refinement. The convergence is found to depend on the simulation method and on the problem, with CIT simulations posingmore » fewer difficulties than HIT. Specifically, EL converges under refinement for both HIT and CIT, but statistics exhibit dependence on the postprocessing parameters. For CIT, AG produces similar results to EL. For HIT, converging both TFM and AG poses challenges. Overall, extracting converged, parameter-independent Eulerian statistics remains a challenge for all methods.« less

Low-complexity stochastic modeling of wall-bounded shear flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zare, Armin

Turbulent flows are ubiquitous in nature and they appear in many engineering applications. Transition to turbulence, in general, increases skin-friction drag in air/water vehicles compromising their fuel-efficiency and reduces the efficiency and longevity of wind turbines. While traditional flow control techniques combine physical intuition with costly experiments, their effectiveness can be significantly enhanced by control design based on low-complexity models and optimization. In this dissertation, we develop a theoretical and computational framework for the low-complexity stochastic modeling of wall-bounded shear flows. Part I of the dissertation is devoted to the development of a modeling framework which incorporates data-driven techniques to refine physics-based models. We consider the problem of completing partially known sample statistics in a way that is consistent with underlying stochastically driven linear dynamics. Neither the statistics nor the dynamics are precisely known. Thus, our objective is to reconcile the two in a parsimonious manner. To this end, we formulate optimization problems to identify the dynamics and directionality of input excitation in order to explain and complete available covariance data. For problem sizes that general-purpose solvers cannot handle, we develop customized optimization algorithms based on alternating direction methods. The solution to the optimization problem provides information about critical directions that have maximal effect in bringing model and statistics in agreement. In Part II, we employ our modeling framework to account for statistical signatures of turbulent channel flow using low-complexity stochastic dynamical models. We demonstrate that white-in-time stochastic forcing is not sufficient to explain turbulent flow statistics and develop models for colored-in-time forcing of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations. We also examine the efficacy of stochastically forced linearized NS equations and their parabolized equivalents in the receptivity analysis of velocity fluctuations to external sources of excitation as well as capturing the effect of the slowly-varying base flow on streamwise streaks and Tollmien-Schlichting waves. In Part III, we develop a model-based approach to design surface actuation of turbulent channel flow in the form of streamwise traveling waves. This approach is capable of identifying the drag reducing trends of traveling waves in a simulation-free manner. We also use the stochastically forced linearized NS equations to examine the Reynolds number independent effects of spanwise wall oscillations on drag reduction in turbulent channel flows. This allows us to extend the predictive capability of our simulation-free approach to high Reynolds numbers.

Statistical characterization of short wind waves from stereo images of the sea surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mironov, Alexey; Yurovskaya, Maria; Dulov, Vladimir; Hauser, Danièle; Guérin, Charles-Antoine

2013-04-01

We propose a methodology to extract short-scale statistical characteristics of the sea surface topography by means of stereo image reconstruction. The possibilities and limitations of the technique are discussed and tested on a data set acquired from an oceanographic platform at the Black Sea. The analysis shows that reconstruction of the topography based on stereo method is an efficient way to derive non-trivial statistical properties of surface short- and intermediate-waves (say from 1 centimer to 1 meter). Most technical issues pertaining to this type of datasets (limited range of scales, lacunarity of data or irregular sampling) can be partially overcome by appropriate processing of the available points. The proposed technique also allows one to avoid linear interpolation which dramatically corrupts properties of retrieved surfaces. The processing technique imposes that the field of elevation be polynomially detrended, which has the effect of filtering out the large scales. Hence the statistical analysis can only address the small-scale components of the sea surface. The precise cut-off wavelength, which is approximatively half the patch size, can be obtained by applying a high-pass frequency filter on the reference gauge time records. The results obtained for the one- and two-points statistics of small-scale elevations are shown consistent, at least in order of magnitude, with the corresponding gauge measurements as well as other experimental measurements available in the literature. The calculation of the structure functions provides a powerful tool to investigate spectral and statistical properties of the field of elevations. Experimental parametrization of the third-order structure function, the so-called skewness function, is one of the most important and original outcomes of this study. This function is of primary importance in analytical scattering models from the sea surface and was up to now unavailable in field conditions. Due to the lack of precise reference measurements for the small-scale wave field, we could not quantify exactly the accuracy of the retrieval technique. However, it appeared clearly that the obtained accuracy is good enough for the estimation of second-order statistical quantities (such as the correlation function), acceptable for third-order quantities (such as the skwewness function) and insufficient for fourth-order quantities (such as kurtosis). Therefore, the stereo technique in the present stage should not be thought as a self-contained universal tool to characterize the surface statistics. Instead, it should be used in conjunction with other well calibrated but sparse reference measurement (such as wave gauges) for cross-validation and calibration. It then completes the statistical analysis in as much as it provides a snapshot of the three-dimensional field and allows for the evaluation of higher-order spatial statistics.

RESTSIM: A Simulation Model That Highlights Decision Making under Conditions of Uncertainty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zinkhan, George M.; Taylor, James R.

1983-01-01

Describes RESTSIM, an interactive computer simulation program for graduate and upper-level undergraduate management, marketing, and retailing courses, which introduces naive users to simulation as a decision support technique, and provides a vehicle for studying various statistical procedures for evaluating simulation output. (MBR)

A Course Model for Teaching Research Evaluation in Colleges of Pharmacy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draugalis, JoLaine R.; Slack, Marion K.

1992-01-01

A University of Arizona undergraduate pharmacy course designed to develop student skills in evaluation of research has five parts: introduction to the scientific method; statistical techniques/data analysis review; research design; fundamentals of clinical studies; and practical applications. Prerequisites include biostatistics and drug…

EFFECTS-BASED CUMULATIVE RISK ASSESSMENT IN A LOW-INCOME URBAN COMMUNITY NEAR A SUPERFUND SITE

EPA Science Inventory

We will introduce into the cumulative risk assessment framework novel methods for non-cancer risk assessment, techniques for dose-response modeling that extend insights from chemical mixtures frameworks to non-chemical stressors, multilevel statistical methods used to address ...

Model selection as a science driver for dark energy surveys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, Pia; Parkinson, David; Corasaniti, Pier Stefano; Liddle, Andrew R.; Kunz, Martin

2006-07-01

A key science goal of upcoming dark energy surveys is to seek time-evolution of the dark energy. This problem is one of model selection, where the aim is to differentiate between cosmological models with different numbers of parameters. However, the power of these surveys is traditionally assessed by estimating their ability to constrain parameters, which is a different statistical problem. In this paper, we use Bayesian model selection techniques, specifically forecasting of the Bayes factors, to compare the abilities of different proposed surveys in discovering dark energy evolution. We consider six experiments - supernova luminosity measurements by the Supernova Legacy Survey, SNAP, JEDI and ALPACA, and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements by WFMOS and JEDI - and use Bayes factor plots to compare their statistical constraining power. The concept of Bayes factor forecasting has much broader applicability than dark energy surveys.

NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1988-01-01

This Standard presents descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. Use of this Standard is not mandatory; however, it should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend Analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology, but rather connotes, generally, quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this Standard. The document presents the basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends, together with relevant examples. A list of references provides additional sources of information.

Advantage of the modified Lunn-McNeil technique over Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique in competing risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukman, Iing; Ibrahim, Noor A.; Daud, Isa B.; Maarof, Fauziah; Hassan, Mohd N.

2002-03-01

Survival analysis algorithm is often applied in the data mining process. Cox regression is one of the survival analysis tools that has been used in many areas, and it can be used to analyze the failure times of aircraft crashed. Another survival analysis tool is the competing risks where we have more than one cause of failure acting simultaneously. Lunn-McNeil analyzed the competing risks in the survival model using Cox regression with censored data. The modified Lunn-McNeil technique is a simplify of the Lunn-McNeil technique. The Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique is involving fitting models separately from each type of failure, treating other failure types as censored. To compare the two techniques, (the modified Lunn-McNeil and Kalbfleisch-Prentice) a simulation study was performed. Samples with various sizes and censoring percentages were generated and fitted using both techniques. The study was conducted by comparing the inference of models, using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the power tests, and the Schoenfeld residual analysis. The power tests in this study were likelihood ratio test, Rao-score test, and Wald statistics. The Schoenfeld residual analysis was conducted to check the proportionality of the model through its covariates. The estimated parameters were computed for the cause-specific hazard situation. Results showed that the modified Lunn-McNeil technique was better than the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique based on the RMSE measurement and Schoenfeld residual analysis. However, the Kalbfleisch-Prentice technique was better than the modified Lunn-McNeil technique based on power tests measurement.

Moment-based metrics for global sensitivity analysis of hydrological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dell'Oca, Aronne; Riva, Monica; Guadagnini, Alberto

2017-12-01

We propose new metrics to assist global sensitivity analysis, GSA, of hydrological and Earth systems. Our approach allows assessing the impact of uncertain parameters on main features of the probability density function, pdf, of a target model output, y. These include the expected value of y, the spread around the mean and the degree of symmetry and tailedness of the pdf of y. Since reliable assessment of higher-order statistical moments can be computationally demanding, we couple our GSA approach with a surrogate model, approximating the full model response at a reduced computational cost. Here, we consider the generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE), other model reduction techniques being fully compatible with our theoretical framework. We demonstrate our approach through three test cases, including an analytical benchmark, a simplified scenario mimicking pumping in a coastal aquifer and a laboratory-scale conservative transport experiment. Our results allow ascertaining which parameters can impact some moments of the model output pdf while being uninfluential to others. We also investigate the error associated with the evaluation of our sensitivity metrics by replacing the original system model through a gPCE. Our results indicate that the construction of a surrogate model with increasing level of accuracy might be required depending on the statistical moment considered in the GSA. The approach is fully compatible with (and can assist the development of) analysis techniques employed in the context of reduction of model complexity, model calibration, design of experiment, uncertainty quantification and risk assessment.

The FORE-SCE model: a practical approach for projecting land cover change using scenario-based modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sohl, Terry L.; Sayler, Kristi L.; Drummond, Mark A.; Loveland, Thomas R.

2007-01-01

A wide variety of ecological applications require spatially explicit, historic, current, and projected land use and land cover data. The U.S. Land Cover Trends project is analyzing contemporary (1973–2000) land-cover change in the conterminous United States. The newly developed FORE-SCE model used Land Cover Trends data and theoretical, statistical, and deterministic modeling techniques to project future land cover change through 2020 for multiple plausible scenarios. Projected proportions of future land use were initially developed, and then sited on the lands with the highest potential for supporting that land use and land cover using a statistically based stochastic allocation procedure. Three scenarios of 2020 land cover were mapped for the western Great Plains in the US. The model provided realistic, high-resolution, scenario-based land-cover products suitable for multiple applications, including studies of climate and weather variability, carbon dynamics, and regional hydrology.

Structural uncertainty of downscaled climate model output in a difficult-to-resolve environment: data sparseness and parameterization error contribution to statistical and dynamical downscaling output in the U.S. Caribbean region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Grade, S.; Bowden, J.; Henareh Khalyani, A.; Wootten, A.; Misra, V.; Collazo, J.; Gould, W. A.; Boyles, R.

2016-12-01

Sub-tropical island nations may be particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change because of predicted changes in the hydrologic cycle that would lead to significant drying in the future. However, decision makers in these regions have seen their adaptation planning efforts frustrated by the lack of island-resolving climate model information. Recently, two investigations have used statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques to develop climate change projections for the U.S. Caribbean region (Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands). We compare the results from these two studies with respect to three commonly downscaled CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs). The GCMs were dynamically downscaled at a convective-permitting scale using two different regional climate models. The statistical downscaling approach was conducted at locations with long-term climate observations and then further post-processed using climatologically aided interpolation (yielding two sets of projections). Overall, both approaches face unique challenges. The statistical approach suffers from a lack of observations necessary to constrain the model, particularly at the land-ocean boundary and in complex terrain. The dynamically downscaled model output has a systematic dry bias over the island despite ample availability of moisture in the atmospheric column. Notwithstanding these differences, both approaches are consistent in projecting a drier climate that is driven by the strong global-scale anthropogenic forcing.

Comparison of transform coding methods with an optimal predictor for the data compression of digital elevation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, Michael

1994-01-01

Statistical encoding techniques enable the reduction of the number of bits required to encode a set of symbols, and are derived from their probabilities. Huffman encoding is an example of statistical encoding that has been used for error-free data compression. The degree of compression given by Huffman encoding in this application can be improved by the use of prediction methods. These replace the set of elevations by a set of corrections that have a more advantageous probability distribution. In particular, the method of Lagrange Multipliers for minimization of the mean square error has been applied to local geometrical predictors. Using this technique, an 8-point predictor achieved about a 7 percent improvement over an existing simple triangular predictor.

Multivariate statistical model for 3D image segmentation with application to medical images.

PubMed

John, Nigel M; Kabuka, Mansur R; Ibrahim, Mohamed O

2003-12-01

In this article we describe a statistical model that was developed to segment brain magnetic resonance images. The statistical segmentation algorithm was applied after a pre-processing stage involving the use of a 3D anisotropic filter along with histogram equalization techniques. The segmentation algorithm makes use of prior knowledge and a probability-based multivariate model designed to semi-automate the process of segmentation. The algorithm was applied to images obtained from the Center for Morphometric Analysis at Massachusetts General Hospital as part of the Internet Brain Segmentation Repository (IBSR). The developed algorithm showed improved accuracy over the k-means, adaptive Maximum Apriori Probability (MAP), biased MAP, and other algorithms. Experimental results showing the segmentation and the results of comparisons with other algorithms are provided. Results are based on an overlap criterion against expertly segmented images from the IBSR. The algorithm produced average results of approximately 80% overlap with the expertly segmented images (compared with 85% for manual segmentation and 55% for other algorithms).

Statistical Method to Overcome Overfitting Issue in Rational Function Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. H.; Mokhtarzade, M.; Alizadeh Naeini, A.; Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. A.

2017-09-01

Rational function models (RFMs) are known as one of the most appealing models which are extensively applied in geometric correction of satellite images and map production. Overfitting is a common issue, in the case of terrain dependent RFMs, that degrades the accuracy of RFMs-derived geospatial products. This issue, resulting from the high number of RFMs' parameters, leads to ill-posedness of the RFMs. To tackle this problem, in this study, a fast and robust statistical approach is proposed and compared to Tikhonov regularization (TR) method, as a frequently-used solution to RFMs' overfitting. In the proposed method, a statistical test, namely, significance test is applied to search for the RFMs' parameters that are resistant against overfitting issue. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated for two real data sets of Cartosat-1 satellite images. The obtained results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method in term of the achievable level of accuracy. This technique, indeed, shows an improvement of 50-80% over the TR.

Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J.; Luoto, M.

2018-05-01

Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.

Sex differences in mechanical allodynia: how can it be preclinically quantified and analyzed?

PubMed Central

Nicotra, Lauren; Tuke, Jonathan; Grace, Peter M.; Rolan, Paul E.; Hutchinson, Mark R.

2014-01-01

Translating promising preclinical drug discoveries to successful clinical trials remains a significant hurdle in pain research. Although animal models have significantly contributed to understanding chronic pain pathophysiology, the majority of research has focused on male rodents using testing procedures that produce sex difference data that do not align well with comparable clinical experiences. Additionally, the use of animal pain models presents ongoing ethical challenges demanding continuing refinement of preclinical methods. To this end, this study sought to test a quantitative allodynia assessment technique and associated statistical analysis in a modified graded nerve injury pain model with the aim to further examine sex differences in allodynia. Graded allodynia was established in male and female Sprague Dawley rats by altering the number of sutures placed around the sciatic nerve and quantified by the von Frey test. Linear mixed effects modeling regressed response on each fixed effect (sex, oestrus cycle, pain treatment). On comparison with other common von Frey assessment techniques, utilizing lower threshold filaments than those ordinarily tested, at 1 s intervals, appropriately and successfully investigated female mechanical allodynia, revealing significant sex and oestrus cycle difference across the graded allodynia that other common behavioral methods were unable to detect. Utilizing this different von Frey approach and graded allodynia model, a single suture inflicting less allodynia was sufficient to demonstrate exaggerated female mechanical allodynia throughout the phases of dioestrus and pro-oestrus. Refining the von Frey testing method, statistical analysis technique and the use of a graded model of chronic pain, allowed for examination of the influences on female mechanical nociception that other von Frey methods cannot provide. PMID:24592221

A joint source-channel distortion model for JPEG compressed images.

PubMed

Sabir, Muhammad F; Sheikh, Hamid Rahim; Heath, Robert W; Bovik, Alan C

2006-06-01

The need for efficient joint source-channel coding (JSCC) is growing as new multimedia services are introduced in commercial wireless communication systems. An important component of practical JSCC schemes is a distortion model that can predict the quality of compressed digital multimedia such as images and videos. The usual approach in the JSCC literature for quantifying the distortion due to quantization and channel errors is to estimate it for each image using the statistics of the image for a given signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). This is not an efficient approach in the design of real-time systems because of the computational complexity. A more useful and practical approach would be to design JSCC techniques that minimize average distortion for a large set of images based on some distortion model rather than carrying out per-image optimizations. However, models for estimating average distortion due to quantization and channel bit errors in a combined fashion for a large set of images are not available for practical image or video coding standards employing entropy coding and differential coding. This paper presents a statistical model for estimating the distortion introduced in progressive JPEG compressed images due to quantization and channel bit errors in a joint manner. Statistical modeling of important compression techniques such as Huffman coding, differential pulse-coding modulation, and run-length coding are included in the model. Examples show that the distortion in terms of peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR) can be predicted within a 2-dB maximum error over a variety of compression ratios and bit-error rates. To illustrate the utility of the proposed model, we present an unequal power allocation scheme as a simple application of our model. Results show that it gives a PSNR gain of around 6.5 dB at low SNRs, as compared to equal power allocation.

Neuro-evolutionary computing paradigm for Painlevé equation-II in nonlinear optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad, Iftikhar; Ahmad, Sufyan; Awais, Muhammad; Ul Islam Ahmad, Siraj; Asif Zahoor Raja, Muhammad

2018-05-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the numerical treatment of the Painlevé equation-II arising in physical models of nonlinear optics through artificial intelligence procedures by incorporating a single layer structure of neural networks optimized with genetic algorithms, sequential quadratic programming and active set techniques. We constructed a mathematical model for the nonlinear Painlevé equation-II with the help of networks by defining an error-based cost function in mean square sense. The performance of the proposed technique is validated through statistical analyses by means of the one-way ANOVA test conducted on a dataset generated by a large number of independent runs.

Research on ionospheric tomography based on variable pixel height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Dunyong; Li, Peiqing; He, Jie; Hu, Wusheng; Li, Chaokui

2016-05-01

A novel ionospheric tomography technique based on variable pixel height was developed for the tomographic reconstruction of the ionospheric electron density distribution. The method considers the height of each pixel as an unknown variable, which is retrieved during the inversion process together with the electron density values. In contrast to conventional computerized ionospheric tomography (CIT), which parameterizes the model with a fixed pixel height, the variable-pixel-height computerized ionospheric tomography (VHCIT) model applies a disturbance to the height of each pixel. In comparison with conventional CIT models, the VHCIT technique achieved superior results in a numerical simulation. A careful validation of the reliability and superiority of VHCIT was performed. According to the results of the statistical analysis of the average root mean square errors, the proposed model offers an improvement by 15% compared with conventional CIT models.

Mathematical neuroscience: from neurons to circuits to systems.

PubMed

Gutkin, Boris; Pinto, David; Ermentrout, Bard

2003-01-01

Applications of mathematics and computational techniques to our understanding of neuronal systems are provided. Reduction of membrane models to simplified canonical models demonstrates how neuronal spike-time statistics follow from simple properties of neurons. Averaging over space allows one to derive a simple model for the whisker barrel circuit and use this to explain and suggest several experiments. Spatio-temporal pattern formation methods are applied to explain the patterns seen in the early stages of drug-induced visual hallucinations.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K.

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Geometry of behavioral spaces: A computational approach to analysis and understanding of agent based models and agent behaviors.

PubMed

Cenek, Martin; Dahl, Spencer K

2016-11-01

Systems with non-linear dynamics frequently exhibit emergent system behavior, which is important to find and specify rigorously to understand the nature of the modeled phenomena. Through this analysis, it is possible to characterize phenomena such as how systems assemble or dissipate and what behaviors lead to specific final system configurations. Agent Based Modeling (ABM) is one of the modeling techniques used to study the interaction dynamics between a system's agents and its environment. Although the methodology of ABM construction is well understood and practiced, there are no computational, statistically rigorous, comprehensive tools to evaluate an ABM's execution. Often, a human has to observe an ABM's execution in order to analyze how the ABM functions, identify the emergent processes in the agent's behavior, or study a parameter's effect on the system-wide behavior. This paper introduces a new statistically based framework to automatically analyze agents' behavior, identify common system-wide patterns, and record the probability of agents changing their behavior from one pattern of behavior to another. We use network based techniques to analyze the landscape of common behaviors in an ABM's execution. Finally, we test the proposed framework with a series of experiments featuring increasingly emergent behavior. The proposed framework will allow computational comparison of ABM executions, exploration of a model's parameter configuration space, and identification of the behavioral building blocks in a model's dynamics.

Evaluation of statistical treatments of left-censored environmental data using coincident uncensored data sets: I. Summary statistics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Antweiler, Ronald C.; Taylor, Howard E.

2008-01-01

The main classes of statistical treatment of below-detection limit (left-censored) environmental data for the determination of basic statistics that have been used in the literature are substitution methods, maximum likelihood, regression on order statistics (ROS), and nonparametric techniques. These treatments, along with using all instrument-generated data (even those below detection), were evaluated by examining data sets in which the true values of the censored data were known. It was found that for data sets with less than 70% censored data, the best technique overall for determination of summary statistics was the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier technique. ROS and the two substitution methods of assigning one-half the detection limit value to censored data or assigning a random number between zero and the detection limit to censored data were adequate alternatives. The use of these two substitution methods, however, requires a thorough understanding of how the laboratory censored the data. The technique of employing all instrument-generated data - including numbers below the detection limit - was found to be less adequate than the above techniques. At high degrees of censoring (greater than 70% censored data), no technique provided good estimates of summary statistics. Maximum likelihood techniques were found to be far inferior to all other treatments except substituting zero or the detection limit value to censored data.

Evaluating the statistical performance of less applied algorithms in classification of worldview-3 imagery data in an urbanized landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranaie, Mehrdad; Soffianian, Alireza; Pourmanafi, Saeid; Mirghaffari, Noorollah; Tarkesh, Mostafa

2018-03-01

In recent decade, analyzing the remotely sensed imagery is considered as one of the most common and widely used procedures in the environmental studies. In this case, supervised image classification techniques play a central role. Hence, taking a high resolution Worldview-3 over a mixed urbanized landscape in Iran, three less applied image classification methods including Bagged CART, Stochastic gradient boosting model and Neural network with feature extraction were tested and compared with two prevalent methods: random forest and support vector machine with linear kernel. To do so, each method was run ten time and three validation techniques was used to estimate the accuracy statistics consist of cross validation, independent validation and validation with total of train data. Moreover, using ANOVA and Tukey test, statistical difference significance between the classification methods was significantly surveyed. In general, the results showed that random forest with marginal difference compared to Bagged CART and stochastic gradient boosting model is the best performing method whilst based on independent validation there was no significant difference between the performances of classification methods. It should be finally noted that neural network with feature extraction and linear support vector machine had better processing speed than other.

Relative strength of tailor's bunion osteotomies and fixation techniques.

PubMed

Haddon, Todd B; LaPointe, Stephan J

2013-01-01

A paucity of data is available on the mechanical strength of fifth metatarsal osteotomies. The present study was designed to provide that information. Five osteotomies were mechanically tested to failure using a materials testing machine and compared with an intact fifth metatarsal using a hollow saw bone model with a sample size of 10 for each construct. The osteotomies tested were the distal reverse chevron fixated with a Kirschner wire, the long plantar reverse chevron osteotomy fixated with 2 screws, a mid-diaphyseal sagittal plane osteotomy fixated with 2 screws, the mid-diaphyseal sagittal plane osteotomy fixated with 2 screws, and an additional cerclage wire and a transverse closing wedge osteotomy fixated with a box wire technique. Analysis of variance was performed, resulting in a statistically significant difference among the data at p <.0001. The Tukey-Kramer honestly significant difference with least significant differences was performed post hoc to separate out the pairs at a minimum α of 0.05. The chevron was statistically the strongest construct at 130 N, followed by the long plantar osteotomy at 78 N. The chevron compared well with the control at 114 N, and they both fractured at the proximal model to fixture interface. The other osteotomies were statistically and significantly weaker than both the chevron and the long plantar constructs, with no statistically significant difference among them at 36, 39, and 48 N. In conclusion, the chevron osteotomy was superior in strength to the sagittal and transverse plane osteotomies and similar in strength and failure to the intact model. Copyright © 2013 American College of Foot and Ankle Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Equivalence between Step Selection Functions and Biased Correlated Random Walks for Statistical Inference on Animal Movement.

PubMed

Duchesne, Thierry; Fortin, Daniel; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2015-01-01

Animal movement has a fundamental impact on population and community structure and dynamics. Biased correlated random walks (BCRW) and step selection functions (SSF) are commonly used to study movements. Because no studies have contrasted the parameters and the statistical properties of their estimators for models constructed under these two Lagrangian approaches, it remains unclear whether or not they allow for similar inference. First, we used the Weak Law of Large Numbers to demonstrate that the log-likelihood function for estimating the parameters of BCRW models can be approximated by the log-likelihood of SSFs. Second, we illustrated the link between the two approaches by fitting BCRW with maximum likelihood and with SSF to simulated movement data in virtual environments and to the trajectory of bison (Bison bison L.) trails in natural landscapes. Using simulated and empirical data, we found that the parameters of a BCRW estimated directly from maximum likelihood and by fitting an SSF were remarkably similar. Movement analysis is increasingly used as a tool for understanding the influence of landscape properties on animal distribution. In the rapidly developing field of movement ecology, management and conservation biologists must decide which method they should implement to accurately assess the determinants of animal movement. We showed that BCRW and SSF can provide similar insights into the environmental features influencing animal movements. Both techniques have advantages. BCRW has already been extended to allow for multi-state modeling. Unlike BCRW, however, SSF can be estimated using most statistical packages, it can simultaneously evaluate habitat selection and movement biases, and can easily integrate a large number of movement taxes at multiple scales. SSF thus offers a simple, yet effective, statistical technique to identify movement taxis.

Comparing geological and statistical approaches for element selection in sediment tracing research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laceby, J. Patrick; McMahon, Joe; Evrard, Olivier; Olley, Jon

2015-04-01

Elevated suspended sediment loads reduce reservoir capacity and significantly increase the cost of operating water treatment infrastructure, making the management of sediment supply to reservoirs of increasingly importance. Sediment fingerprinting techniques can be used to determine the relative contributions of different sources of sediment accumulating in reservoirs. The objective of this research is to compare geological and statistical approaches to element selection for sediment fingerprinting modelling. Time-integrated samplers (n=45) were used to obtain source samples from four major subcatchments flowing into the Baroon Pocket Dam in South East Queensland, Australia. The geochemistry of potential sources were compared to the geochemistry of sediment cores (n=12) sampled in the reservoir. The geochemical approach selected elements for modelling that provided expected, observed and statistical discrimination between sediment sources. Two statistical approaches selected elements for modelling with the Kruskal-Wallis H-test and Discriminatory Function Analysis (DFA). In particular, two different significance levels (0.05 & 0.35) for the DFA were included to investigate the importance of element selection on modelling results. A distribution model determined the relative contributions of different sources to sediment sampled in the Baroon Pocket Dam. Elemental discrimination was expected between one subcatchment (Obi Obi Creek) and the remaining subcatchments (Lexys, Falls and Bridge Creek). Six major elements were expected to provide discrimination. Of these six, only Fe2O3 and SiO2 provided expected, observed and statistical discrimination. Modelling results with this geological approach indicated 36% (+/- 9%) of sediment sampled in the reservoir cores were from mafic-derived sources and 64% (+/- 9%) were from felsic-derived sources. The geological and the first statistical approach (DFA0.05) differed by only 1% (σ 5%) for 5 out of 6 model groupings with only the Lexys Creek modelling results differing significantly (35%). The statistical model with expanded elemental selection (DFA0.35) differed from the geological model by an average of 30% for all 6 models. Elemental selection for sediment fingerprinting therefore has the potential to impact modeling results. Accordingly is important to incorporate both robust geological and statistical approaches when selecting elements for sediment fingerprinting. For the Baroon Pocket Dam, management should focus on reducing the supply of sediments derived from felsic sources in each of the subcatchments.

Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification techniques for model calibration. For Bayesian model calibration, we employ adaptive Metropolis algorithms to construct densities for input parameters in the heat model and the HIV model. To quantify the uncertainty in the parameters, we employ two MCMC algorithms: Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM) [33] and Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) [66, 68]. The densities obtained using these methods are compared to those obtained through the direct numerical evaluation of the Bayes' formula. We also combine uncertainties in input parameters and measurement errors to construct predictive estimates for a model response. A significant emphasis is on the development and illustration of techniques to verify the accuracy of sampling-based Metropolis algorithms. We verify the accuracy of DRAM and DREAM by comparing chains, densities and correlations obtained using DRAM, DREAM and the direct evaluation of Bayes formula. We also perform similar analysis for credible and prediction intervals for responses. Once the parameters are estimated, we employ energy statistics test [63, 64] to compare the densities obtained by different methods for the HIV model. The energy statistics are used to test the equality of distributions. We also consider parameter selection and verification techniques for models having one or more parameters that are noninfluential in the sense that they minimally impact model outputs. We illustrate these techniques for a dynamic HIV model but note that the parameter selection and verification framework is applicable to a wide range of biological and physical models. To accommodate the nonlinear input to output relations, which are typical for such models, we focus on global sensitivity analysis techniques, including those based on partial correlations, Sobol indices based on second-order model representations, and Morris indices, as well as a parameter selection technique based on standard errors. A significant objective is to provide verification strategies to assess the accuracy of those techniques, which we illustrate in the context of the HIV model. Finally, we examine active subspace methods as an alternative to parameter subset selection techniques. The objective of active subspace methods is to determine the subspace of inputs that most strongly affect the model response, and to reduce the dimension of the input space. The major difference between active subspace methods and parameter selection techniques is that parameter selection identifies influential parameters whereas subspace selection identifies a linear combination of parameters that impacts the model responses significantly. We employ active subspace methods discussed in [22] for the HIV model and present a verification that the active subspace successfully reduces the input dimensions.

Competing risks models and time-dependent covariates

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian; Graves, Nick

2008-01-01

New statistical models for analysing survival data in an intensive care unit context have recently been developed. Two models that offer significant advantages over standard survival analyses are competing risks models and multistate models. Wolkewitz and colleagues used a competing risks model to examine survival times for nosocomial pneumonia and mortality. Their model was able to incorporate time-dependent covariates and so examine how risk factors that changed with time affected the chances of infection or death. We briefly explain how an alternative modelling technique (using logistic regression) can more fully exploit time-dependent covariates for this type of data. PMID:18423067

Continuous statistical modelling for rapid detection of adulteration of extra virgin olive oil using mid infrared and Raman spectroscopic data.

PubMed

Georgouli, Konstantia; Martinez Del Rincon, Jesus; Koidis, Anastasios

2017-02-15

The main objective of this work was to develop a novel dimensionality reduction technique as a part of an integrated pattern recognition solution capable of identifying adulterants such as hazelnut oil in extra virgin olive oil at low percentages based on spectroscopic chemical fingerprints. A novel Continuous Locality Preserving Projections (CLPP) technique is proposed which allows the modelling of the continuous nature of the produced in-house admixtures as data series instead of discrete points. The maintenance of the continuous structure of the data manifold enables the better visualisation of this examined classification problem and facilitates the more accurate utilisation of the manifold for detecting the adulterants. The performance of the proposed technique is validated with two different spectroscopic techniques (Raman and Fourier transform infrared, FT-IR). In all cases studied, CLPP accompanied by k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) algorithm was found to outperform any other state-of-the-art pattern recognition techniques. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Hyperspectral-based predictive modelling of grapevine water status in the Portuguese Douro wine region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pôças, Isabel; Gonçalves, João; Costa, Patrícia Malva; Gonçalves, Igor; Pereira, Luís S.; Cunha, Mario

2017-06-01

In this study, hyperspectral reflectance (HySR) data derived from a handheld spectroradiometer were used to assess the water status of three grapevine cultivars in two sub-regions of Douro wine region during two consecutive years. A large set of potential predictors derived from the HySR data were considered for modelling/predicting the predawn leaf water potential (Ψpd) through different statistical and machine learning techniques. Three HySR vegetation indices were selected as final predictors for the computation of the models and the in-season time trend was removed from data by using a time predictor. The vegetation indices selected were the Normalized Reflectance Index for the wavelengths 554 nm and 561 nm (NRI554;561), the water index (WI) for the wavelengths 900 nm and 970 nm, and the D1 index which is associated with the rate of reflectance increase in the wavelengths of 706 nm and 730 nm. These vegetation indices covered the green, red edge and the near infrared domains of the electromagnetic spectrum. A large set of state-of-the-art analysis and statistical and machine-learning modelling techniques were tested. Predictive modelling techniques based on generalized boosted model (GBM), bagged multivariate adaptive regression splines (B-MARS), generalized additive model (GAM), and Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN) showed the best performance for predicting Ψpd, with an average determination coefficient (R2) ranging between 0.78 and 0.80 and RMSE varying between 0.11 and 0.12 MPa. When cultivar Touriga Nacional was used for training the models and the cultivars Touriga Franca and Tinta Barroca for testing (independent validation), the models performance was good, particularly for GBM (R2 = 0.85; RMSE = 0.09 MPa). Additionally, the comparison of Ψpd observed and predicted showed an equitable dispersion of data from the various cultivars. The results achieved show a good potential of these predictive models based on vegetation indices to support irrigation scheduling in vineyard.

Reading biological processes from nucleotide sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murugan, Anand

Cellular processes have traditionally been investigated by techniques of imaging and biochemical analysis of the molecules involved. The recent rapid progress in our ability to manipulate and read nucleic acid sequences gives us direct access to the genetic information that directs and constrains biological processes. While sequence data is being used widely to investigate genotype-phenotype relationships and population structure, here we use sequencing to understand biophysical mechanisms. We present work on two different systems. First, in chapter 2, we characterize the stochastic genetic editing mechanism that produces diverse T-cell receptors in the human immune system. We do this by inferring statistical distributions of the underlying biochemical events that generate T-cell receptor coding sequences from the statistics of the observed sequences. This inferred model quantitatively describes the potential repertoire of T-cell receptors that can be produced by an individual, providing insight into its potential diversity and the probability of generation of any specific T-cell receptor. Then in chapter 3, we present work on understanding the functioning of regulatory DNA sequences in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. Here we use experiments that measure the transcriptional activity of large libraries of mutagenized promoters and enhancers and infer models of the sequence-function relationship from this data. For the bacterial promoter, we infer a physically motivated 'thermodynamic' model of the interaction of DNA-binding proteins and RNA polymerase determining the transcription rate of the downstream gene. For the eukaryotic enhancers, we infer heuristic models of the sequence-function relationship and use these models to find synthetic enhancer sequences that optimize inducibility of expression. Both projects demonstrate the utility of sequence information in conjunction with sophisticated statistical inference techniques for dissecting underlying biophysical mechanisms.

A Comparison of Statistical Techniques for Combining Modeled and Observed Concentrations to Create High-Resolution Ozone Air Quality Surfaces

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality surfaces representing pollutant concentrations across space and time are needed for many applications, including tracking trends and relating air quality to human and ecosystem health. The spatial and temporal characteristics of these surfaces may reveal new informat...

New Statistical Techniques for Evaluating Longitudinal Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, James R.; Wiley, David E.

A basic methodological approach in developmental studies is the collection of longitudinal data. Behavioral data cen take at least two forms, qualitative (or discrete) and quantitative. Both types are fallible. Measurement errors can occur in quantitative data and measures of these are based on error variance. Qualitative or discrete data can…

PREDICTION OF POPULATION-LEVEL RESPONSE FROM MYSID TOXICITY TEST DATA USING POPULATION MODEL TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

Acute and chronic bioassay statistics are used to evaluate the toxicity and the risks of chemical stressors to mysid shrimp Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia). These include LC50 values from acute tests, chronic values (the geometric mean of the no-obsderved-effect co...

US EPA'S LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY RESEARCH: ASSESSING TRENDS FOR WETLANDS AND SURFACE WATERS USING REMORE SENSING, GIS, AND FIELD-BASED TECHNIQUES

EPA Science Inventory

The US EPA, Environmental Sciences Division-Las Vegas is using a variety of geopspatical and statistical modeling approaches to locate and assess the complex functions of wetland ecosystems. These assessments involve measuring landscape characteristrics and change, at multiple s...

Differential Item Functioning Analysis Using Rasch Item Information Functions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wyse, Adam E.; Mapuranga, Raymond

2009-01-01

Differential item functioning (DIF) analysis is a statistical technique used for ensuring the equity and fairness of educational assessments. This study formulates a new DIF analysis method using the information similarity index (ISI). ISI compares item information functions when data fits the Rasch model. Through simulations and an international…

Performance evaluation of a hybrid-passive landfill leachate treatment system using multivariate statistical techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wallace, Jack, E-mail: jack.wallace@ce.queensu.ca; Champagne, Pascale, E-mail: champagne@civil.queensu.ca; Monnier, Anne-Charlotte, E-mail: anne-charlotte.monnier@insa-lyon.fr

Highlights: • Performance of a hybrid passive landfill leachate treatment system was evaluated. • 33 Water chemistry parameters were sampled for 21 months and statistically analyzed. • Parameters were strongly linked and explained most (>40%) of the variation in data. • Alkalinity, ammonia, COD, heavy metals, and iron were criteria for performance. • Eight other parameters were key in modeling system dynamics and criteria. - Abstract: A pilot-scale hybrid-passive treatment system operated at the Merrick Landfill in North Bay, Ontario, Canada, treats municipal landfill leachate and provides for subsequent natural attenuation. Collected leachate is directed to a hybrid-passive treatment system,more » followed by controlled release to a natural attenuation zone before entering the nearby Little Sturgeon River. The study presents a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of the system using multivariate statistical techniques to determine the interactions between parameters, major pollutants in the leachate, and the biological and chemical processes occurring in the system. Five parameters (ammonia, alkalinity, chemical oxygen demand (COD), “heavy” metals of interest, with atomic weights above calcium, and iron) were set as criteria for the evaluation of system performance based on their toxicity to aquatic ecosystems and importance in treatment with respect to discharge regulations. System data for a full range of water quality parameters over a 21-month period were analyzed using principal components analysis (PCA), as well as principal components (PC) and partial least squares (PLS) regressions. PCA indicated a high degree of association for most parameters with the first PC, which explained a high percentage (>40%) of the variation in the data, suggesting strong statistical relationships among most of the parameters in the system. Regression analyses identified 8 parameters (set as independent variables) that were most frequently retained for modeling the five criteria parameters (set as dependent variables), on a statistically significant level: conductivity, dissolved oxygen (DO), nitrite (NO{sub 2}{sup −}), organic nitrogen (N), oxidation reduction potential (ORP), pH, sulfate and total volatile solids (TVS). The criteria parameters and the significant explanatory parameters were most important in modeling the dynamics of the passive treatment system during the study period. Such techniques and procedures were found to be highly valuable and could be applied to other sites to determine parameters of interest in similar naturalized engineered systems.« less

Diagnosis of Misalignment in Overhung Rotor using the K-S Statistic and A2 Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garikapati, Diwakar; Pacharu, RaviKumar; Munukurthi, Rama Satya Satyanarayana

2018-02-01

Vibration measurement at the bearings of rotating machinery has become a useful technique for diagnosing incipient fault conditions. In particular, vibration measurement can be used to detect unbalance in rotor, bearing failure, gear problems or misalignment between a motor shaft and coupled shaft. This is a particular problem encountered in turbines, ID fans and FD fans used for power generation. For successful fault diagnosis, it is important to adopt motor current signature analysis (MCSA) techniques capable of identifying the faults. It is also useful to develop techniques for inferring information such as the severity of fault. It is proposed that modeling the cumulative distribution function of motor current signals with respect to appropriate theoretical distributions, and quantifying the goodness of fit with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) statistic and A2 test offers a suitable signal feature for diagnosis. This paper demonstrates the successful comparison of the K-S feature and A2 test for discriminating the misalignment fault from normal function.

CAPSAS: Computer Assisted Program for the Selection of Appropriate Statistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shermis, Mark D.; Albert, Susan L.

A computer-assisted program has been developed for the selection of statistics or statistical techniques by both students and researchers. Based on Andrews, Klem, Davidson, O'Malley and Rodgers "A Guide for Selecting Statistical Techniques for Analyzing Social Science Data," this FORTRAN-compiled interactive computer program was…

Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Predicting and Mapping Daily Pan Evaporation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arunkumar, R.; Jothiprakash, V.; Sharma, Kirty

2017-09-01

In this study, Artificial Intelligence techniques such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Model Tree (MT) and Genetic Programming (GP) are used to develop daily pan evaporation time-series (TS) prediction and cause-effect (CE) mapping models. Ten years of observed daily meteorological data such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine hours, dew point temperature and pan evaporation are used for developing the models. For each technique, several models are developed by changing the number of inputs and other model parameters. The performance of each model is evaluated using standard statistical measures such as Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Error, Normalized Mean Square Error and correlation coefficient (R). The results showed that daily TS-GP (4) model predicted better with a correlation coefficient of 0.959 than other TS models. Among various CE models, CE-ANN (6-10-1) resulted better than MT and GP models with a correlation coefficient of 0.881. Because of the complex non-linear inter-relationship among various meteorological variables, CE mapping models could not achieve the performance of TS models. From this study, it was found that GP performs better for recognizing single pattern (time series modelling), whereas ANN is better for modelling multiple patterns (cause-effect modelling) in the data.

Improved Statistical Fault Detection Technique and Application to Biological Phenomena Modeled by S-Systems.

PubMed

Mansouri, Majdi; Nounou, Mohamed N; Nounou, Hazem N

2017-09-01

In our previous work, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of the linear multiscale principal component analysis (PCA)-based moving window (MW)-generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) technique over the classical PCA and multiscale principal component analysis (MSPCA)-based GLRT methods. The developed fault detection algorithm provided optimal properties by maximizing the detection probability for a particular false alarm rate (FAR) with different values of windows, and however, most real systems are nonlinear, which make the linear PCA method not able to tackle the issue of non-linearity to a great extent. Thus, in this paper, first, we apply a nonlinear PCA to obtain an accurate principal component of a set of data and handle a wide range of nonlinearities using the kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) model. The KPCA is among the most popular nonlinear statistical methods. Second, we extend the MW-GLRT technique to one that utilizes exponential weights to residuals in the moving window (instead of equal weightage) as it might be able to further improve fault detection performance by reducing the FAR using exponentially weighed moving average (EWMA). The developed detection method, which is called EWMA-GLRT, provides improved properties, such as smaller missed detection and FARs and smaller average run length. The idea behind the developed EWMA-GLRT is to compute a new GLRT statistic that integrates current and previous data information in a decreasing exponential fashion giving more weight to the more recent data. This provides a more accurate estimation of the GLRT statistic and provides a stronger memory that will enable better decision making with respect to fault detection. Therefore, in this paper, a KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT method is developed and utilized in practice to improve fault detection in biological phenomena modeled by S-systems and to enhance monitoring process mean. The idea behind a KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT fault detection algorithm is to combine the advantages brought forward by the proposed EWMA-GLRT fault detection chart with the KPCA model. Thus, it is used to enhance fault detection of the Cad System in E. coli model through monitoring some of the key variables involved in this model such as enzymes, transport proteins, regulatory proteins, lysine, and cadaverine. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed KPCA-based EWMA-GLRT method over Q , GLRT, EWMA, Shewhart, and moving window-GLRT methods. The detection performance is assessed and evaluated in terms of FAR, missed detection rates, and average run length (ARL 1 ) values.

An overview of techniques for linking high-dimensional molecular data to time-to-event endpoints by risk prediction models.

PubMed

Binder, Harald; Porzelius, Christine; Schumacher, Martin

2011-03-01

Analysis of molecular data promises identification of biomarkers for improving prognostic models, thus potentially enabling better patient management. For identifying such biomarkers, risk prediction models can be employed that link high-dimensional molecular covariate data to a clinical endpoint. In low-dimensional settings, a multitude of statistical techniques already exists for building such models, e.g. allowing for variable selection or for quantifying the added value of a new biomarker. We provide an overview of techniques for regularized estimation that transfer this toward high-dimensional settings, with a focus on models for time-to-event endpoints. Techniques for incorporating specific covariate structure are discussed, as well as techniques for dealing with more complex endpoints. Employing gene expression data from patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, some typical modeling issues from low-dimensional settings are illustrated in a high-dimensional application. First, the performance of classical stepwise regression is compared to stage-wise regression, as implemented by a component-wise likelihood-based boosting approach. A second issues arises, when artificially transforming the response into a binary variable. The effects of the resulting loss of efficiency and potential bias in a high-dimensional setting are illustrated, and a link to competing risks models is provided. Finally, we discuss conditions for adequately quantifying the added value of high-dimensional gene expression measurements, both at the stage of model fitting and when performing evaluation. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Data analysis techniques

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Park, Steve

1990-01-01

A large and diverse number of computational techniques are routinely used to process and analyze remotely sensed data. These techniques include: univariate statistics; multivariate statistics; principal component analysis; pattern recognition and classification; other multivariate techniques; geometric correction; registration and resampling; radiometric correction; enhancement; restoration; Fourier analysis; and filtering. Each of these techniques will be considered, in order.

Linear theory for filtering nonlinear multiscale systems with model error

PubMed Central

Berry, Tyrus; Harlim, John

2014-01-01

In this paper, we study filtering of multiscale dynamical systems with model error arising from limitations in resolving the smaller scale processes. In particular, the analysis assumes the availability of continuous-time noisy observations of all components of the slow variables. Mathematically, this paper presents new results on higher order asymptotic expansion of the first two moments of a conditional measure. In particular, we are interested in the application of filtering multiscale problems in which the conditional distribution is defined over the slow variables, given noisy observation of the slow variables alone. From the mathematical analysis, we learn that for a continuous time linear model with Gaussian noise, there exists a unique choice of parameters in a linear reduced model for the slow variables which gives the optimal filtering when only the slow variables are observed. Moreover, these parameters simultaneously give the optimal equilibrium statistical estimates of the underlying system, and as a consequence they can be estimated offline from the equilibrium statistics of the true signal. By examining a nonlinear test model, we show that the linear theory extends in this non-Gaussian, nonlinear configuration as long as we know the optimal stochastic parametrization and the correct observation model. However, when the stochastic parametrization model is inappropriate, parameters chosen for good filter performance may give poor equilibrium statistical estimates and vice versa; this finding is based on analytical and numerical results on our nonlinear test model and the two-layer Lorenz-96 model. Finally, even when the correct stochastic ansatz is given, it is imperative to estimate the parameters simultaneously and to account for the nonlinear feedback of the stochastic parameters into the reduced filter estimates. In numerical experiments on the two-layer Lorenz-96 model, we find that the parameters estimated online, as part of a filtering procedure, simultaneously produce accurate filtering and equilibrium statistical prediction. In contrast, an offline estimation technique based on a linear regression, which fits the parameters to a training dataset without using the filter, yields filter estimates which are worse than the observations or even divergent when the slow variables are not fully observed. This finding does not imply that all offline methods are inherently inferior to the online method for nonlinear estimation problems, it only suggests that an ideal estimation technique should estimate all parameters simultaneously whether it is online or offline. PMID:25002829

Comparison of Conceptual and Neural Network Rainfall-Runoff Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidyarthi, V. K.; Jain, A.

2014-12-01

Rainfall-runoff (RR) model is a key component of any water resource application. There are two types of techniques usually employed for RR modeling: physics based and data-driven techniques. Although the physics based models have been used for operational purposes for a very long time, they provide only reasonable accuracy in modeling and forecasting. On the other hand, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been reported to provide superior modeling performance; however, they have not been acceptable by practitioners, decision makers and water resources engineers as operational tools. The ANNs one of the data driven techniques, became popular for efficient modeling of the complex natural systems in the last couple of decades. In this paper, the comparative results for conceptual and ANN models in RR modeling are presented. The conceptual models were developed by the use of rainfall-runoff library (RRL) and genetic algorithm (GA) was used for calibration of these models. Feed-forward neural network model structure trained by Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) training algorithm has been adopted here to develop all the ANN models. The daily rainfall, runoff and various climatic data derived from Bird creek basin, Oklahoma, USA were employed to develop all the models included here. Daily potential evapotranspiration (PET), which was used in conceptual model development, was calculated by the use of Penman equation. The input variables were selected on the basis of correlation analysis. The performance evaluation statistics such as average absolute relative error (AARE), Pearson's correlation coefficient (R) and threshold statistics (TS) were used for assessing the performance of all the models developed here. The results obtained in this study show that the ANN models outperform the conventional conceptual models due to their ability to learn the non-linearity and complexity inherent in data of rainfall-runoff process in a more efficient manner. There is a strong need to carry out such studies to prove the superiority of ANN models over conventional methods in an attempt to make them acceptable by water resources community responsible for the operation of water resources systems.

Evaluating the performance of a fault detection and diagnostic system for vapor compression equipment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breuker, M.S.; Braun, J.E.

This paper presents a detailed evaluation of the performance of a statistical, rule-based fault detection and diagnostic (FDD) technique presented by Rossi and Braun (1997). Steady-state and transient tests were performed on a simple rooftop air conditioner over a range of conditions and fault levels. The steady-state data without faults were used to train models that predict outputs for normal operation. The transient data with faults were used to evaluate FDD performance. The effect of a number of design variables on FDD sensitivity for different faults was evaluated and two prototype systems were specified for more complete evaluation. Good performancemore » was achieved in detecting and diagnosing five faults using only six temperatures (2 input and 4 output) and linear models. The performance improved by about a factor of two when ten measurements (three input and seven output) and higher order models were used. This approach for evaluating and optimizing the performance of the statistical, rule-based FDD technique could be used as a design and evaluation tool when applying this FDD method to other packaged air-conditioning systems. Furthermore, the approach could also be modified to evaluate the performance of other FDD methods.« less

Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

PubMed

Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

2014-02-01

Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The application of the statistical classifying models for signal evaluation of the gas sensors analyzing mold contamination of the building materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majerek, Dariusz; Guz, Łukasz; Suchorab, Zbigniew; Łagód, Grzegorz; Sobczuk, Henryk

2017-07-01

Mold that develops on moistened building barriers is a major cause of the Sick Building Syndrome (SBS). Fungal contamination is normally evaluated using standard biological methods which are time-consuming and require a lot of manual labor. Fungi emit Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) that can be detected in the indoor air using several techniques of detection e.g. chromatography. VOCs can be also detected using gas sensors arrays. All array sensors generate particular voltage signals that ought to be analyzed using properly selected statistical methods of interpretation. This work is focused on the attempt to apply statistical classifying models in evaluation of signals from gas sensors matrix to analyze the air sampled from the headspace of various types of the building materials at different level of contamination but also clean reference materials.

Model of aircraft passenger acceptance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, I. D.

1978-01-01

A technique developed to evaluate the passenger response to a transportation system environment is described. Reactions to motion, noise, temperature, seating, ventilation, sudden jolts and descents are modeled. Statistics are presented for the age, sex, occupation, and income distributions of the candidates analyzed. Values are noted for the relative importance of system variables such as time savings, on-time arrival, convenience, comfort, safety, the ability to read and write, and onboard services.

Artificial intelligence in the diagnosis of low back pain.

PubMed

Mann, N H; Brown, M D

1991-04-01

Computerized methods are used to recognize the characteristics of patient pain drawings. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are compared with expert predictions and traditional statistical classification methods when placing the pain drawings of low back pain patients into one of five clinically significant categories. A discussion is undertaken outlining the differences in these classifiers and the potential benefits of the ANN model as an artificial intelligence technique.

Optimizing Marine Corps Pilot Conversion to the Joint Strike Fighter

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

Office of Civilian Manpower Management. Included are a summary of modeling efforts and the mathematics behind them, models for aggregate manpower...Vajda for the Admiralty of the Royal Navy. They also mention work by one of the first actuaries , John Rowe, who as early as 1779, conducted studies...idea of using mathematical and statistical techniques to obtain better information on the manpower requirements has its roots in personnel research

From statistical proofs of the Kochen-Specker theorem to noise-robust noncontextuality inequalities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunjwal, Ravi; Spekkens, Robert W.

2018-05-01

The Kochen-Specker theorem rules out models of quantum theory wherein projective measurements are assigned outcomes deterministically and independently of context. This notion of noncontextuality is not applicable to experimental measurements because these are never free of noise and thus never truly projective. For nonprojective measurements, therefore, one must drop the requirement that an outcome be assigned deterministically in the model and merely require that it be assigned a distribution over outcomes in a manner that is context-independent. By demanding context independence in the representation of preparations as well, one obtains a generalized principle of noncontextuality that also supports a quantum no-go theorem. Several recent works have shown how to derive inequalities on experimental data which, if violated, demonstrate the impossibility of finding a generalized-noncontextual model of this data. That is, these inequalities do not presume quantum theory and, in particular, they make sense without requiring an operational analog of the quantum notion of projectiveness. We here describe a technique for deriving such inequalities starting from arbitrary proofs of the Kochen-Specker theorem. It extends significantly previous techniques that worked only for logical proofs, which are based on sets of projective measurements that fail to admit of any deterministic noncontextual assignment, to the case of statistical proofs, which are based on sets of projective measurements that d o admit of some deterministic noncontextual assignments, but not enough to explain the quantum statistics.

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Yanqui; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo

1999-01-01

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Maternal factors predicting cognitive and behavioral characteristics of children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders.

PubMed

May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie A; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M

2013-06-01

To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs). Multivariate correlation techniques were used with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first-grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and used in structural equation models (SEMs) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and nonverbal) and behavior. A first SEM using only 7 maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05) but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status [SES], and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Although other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD.

Artificial intelligence in predicting bladder cancer outcome: a comparison of neuro-fuzzy modeling and artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Catto, James W F; Linkens, Derek A; Abbod, Maysam F; Chen, Minyou; Burton, Julian L; Feeley, Kenneth M; Hamdy, Freddie C

2003-09-15

New techniques for the prediction of tumor behavior are needed, because statistical analysis has a poor accuracy and is not applicable to the individual. Artificial intelligence (AI) may provide these suitable methods. Whereas artificial neural networks (ANN), the best-studied form of AI, have been used successfully, its hidden networks remain an obstacle to its acceptance. Neuro-fuzzy modeling (NFM), another AI method, has a transparent functional layer and is without many of the drawbacks of ANN. We have compared the predictive accuracies of NFM, ANN, and traditional statistical methods, for the behavior of bladder cancer. Experimental molecular biomarkers, including p53 and the mismatch repair proteins, and conventional clinicopathological data were studied in a cohort of 109 patients with bladder cancer. For all three of the methods, models were produced to predict the presence and timing of a tumor relapse. Both methods of AI predicted relapse with an accuracy ranging from 88% to 95%. This was superior to statistical methods (71-77%; P < 0.0006). NFM appeared better than ANN at predicting the timing of relapse (P = 0.073). The use of AI can accurately predict cancer behavior. NFM has a similar or superior predictive accuracy to ANN. However, unlike the impenetrable "black-box" of a neural network, the rules of NFM are transparent, enabling validation from clinical knowledge and the manipulation of input variables to allow exploratory predictions. This technique could be used widely in a variety of areas of medicine.

Exploring Modeling Options and Conversion of Average Response to Appropriate Vibration Envelopes for a Typical Cylindrical Vehicle Panel with Rib-stiffened Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David

2009-01-01

Although applications for Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques are more widely used in the aerospace industry today, opportunities to anchor the response predictions using measured data from a flight-like launch vehicle structure are still quite valuable. Response and excitation data from a ground acoustic test at the Marshall Space Flight Center permitted the authors to compare and evaluate several modeling techniques available in the SEA module of the commercial code VA One. This paper provides an example of vibration response estimates developed using different modeling approaches to both approximate and bound the response of a flight-like vehicle panel. Since both vibration response and acoustic levels near the panel were available from the ground test, the evaluation provided an opportunity to learn how well the different modeling options can match band-averaged spectra developed from the test data. Additional work was performed to understand the spatial averaging of the measurements across the panel from measured data. Finally an evaluation/comparison of two conversion approaches from the statistical average response results that are output from an SEA analysis to a more useful envelope of response spectra appropriate to specify design and test vibration levels for a new vehicle.

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strawa, A. W.; Drdla, K.; Fromm, M.; Bokarius, K.; Gore, Warren J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Statistical Analysis of Crystallization Database Links Protein Physico-Chemical Features with Crystallization Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Fusco, Diana; Barnum, Timothy J.; Bruno, Andrew E.; Luft, Joseph R.; Snell, Edward H.; Mukherjee, Sayan; Charbonneau, Patrick

2014-01-01

X-ray crystallography is the predominant method for obtaining atomic-scale information about biological macromolecules. Despite the success of the technique, obtaining well diffracting crystals still critically limits going from protein to structure. In practice, the crystallization process proceeds through knowledge-informed empiricism. Better physico-chemical understanding remains elusive because of the large number of variables involved, hence little guidance is available to systematically identify solution conditions that promote crystallization. To help determine relationships between macromolecular properties and their crystallization propensity, we have trained statistical models on samples for 182 proteins supplied by the Northeast Structural Genomics consortium. Gaussian processes, which capture trends beyond the reach of linear statistical models, distinguish between two main physico-chemical mechanisms driving crystallization. One is characterized by low levels of side chain entropy and has been extensively reported in the literature. The other identifies specific electrostatic interactions not previously described in the crystallization context. Because evidence for two distinct mechanisms can be gleaned both from crystal contacts and from solution conditions leading to successful crystallization, the model offers future avenues for optimizing crystallization screens based on partial structural information. The availability of crystallization data coupled with structural outcomes analyzed through state-of-the-art statistical models may thus guide macromolecular crystallization toward a more rational basis. PMID:24988076

Statistical analysis of crystallization database links protein physico-chemical features with crystallization mechanisms.

PubMed

Fusco, Diana; Barnum, Timothy J; Bruno, Andrew E; Luft, Joseph R; Snell, Edward H; Mukherjee, Sayan; Charbonneau, Patrick

2014-01-01

X-ray crystallography is the predominant method for obtaining atomic-scale information about biological macromolecules. Despite the success of the technique, obtaining well diffracting crystals still critically limits going from protein to structure. In practice, the crystallization process proceeds through knowledge-informed empiricism. Better physico-chemical understanding remains elusive because of the large number of variables involved, hence little guidance is available to systematically identify solution conditions that promote crystallization. To help determine relationships between macromolecular properties and their crystallization propensity, we have trained statistical models on samples for 182 proteins supplied by the Northeast Structural Genomics consortium. Gaussian processes, which capture trends beyond the reach of linear statistical models, distinguish between two main physico-chemical mechanisms driving crystallization. One is characterized by low levels of side chain entropy and has been extensively reported in the literature. The other identifies specific electrostatic interactions not previously described in the crystallization context. Because evidence for two distinct mechanisms can be gleaned both from crystal contacts and from solution conditions leading to successful crystallization, the model offers future avenues for optimizing crystallization screens based on partial structural information. The availability of crystallization data coupled with structural outcomes analyzed through state-of-the-art statistical models may thus guide macromolecular crystallization toward a more rational basis.

Variation in reaction norms: Statistical considerations and biological interpretation.

PubMed

Morrissey, Michael B; Liefting, Maartje

2016-09-01

Analysis of reaction norms, the functions by which the phenotype produced by a given genotype depends on the environment, is critical to studying many aspects of phenotypic evolution. Different techniques are available for quantifying different aspects of reaction norm variation. We examine what biological inferences can be drawn from some of the more readily applicable analyses for studying reaction norms. We adopt a strongly biologically motivated view, but draw on statistical theory to highlight strengths and drawbacks of different techniques. In particular, consideration of some formal statistical theory leads to revision of some recently, and forcefully, advocated opinions on reaction norm analysis. We clarify what simple analysis of the slope between mean phenotype in two environments can tell us about reaction norms, explore the conditions under which polynomial regression can provide robust inferences about reaction norm shape, and explore how different existing approaches may be used to draw inferences about variation in reaction norm shape. We show how mixed model-based approaches can provide more robust inferences than more commonly used multistep statistical approaches, and derive new metrics of the relative importance of variation in reaction norm intercepts, slopes, and curvatures. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mog, Robert A.

1997-01-01

Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

Statistically qualified neuro-analytic failure detection method and system

DOEpatents

Vilim, Richard B.; Garcia, Humberto E.; Chen, Frederick W.

2002-03-02

An apparatus and method for monitoring a process involve development and application of a statistically qualified neuro-analytic (SQNA) model to accurately and reliably identify process change. The development of the SQNA model is accomplished in two stages: deterministic model adaption and stochastic model modification of the deterministic model adaptation. Deterministic model adaption involves formulating an analytic model of the process representing known process characteristics, augmenting the analytic model with a neural network that captures unknown process characteristics, and training the resulting neuro-analytic model by adjusting the neural network weights according to a unique scaled equation error minimization technique. Stochastic model modification involves qualifying any remaining uncertainty in the trained neuro-analytic model by formulating a likelihood function, given an error propagation equation, for computing the probability that the neuro-analytic model generates measured process output. Preferably, the developed SQNA model is validated using known sequential probability ratio tests and applied to the process as an on-line monitoring system. Illustrative of the method and apparatus, the method is applied to a peristaltic pump system.

Confronting weather and climate models with observational data from soil moisture networks over the United States

PubMed Central

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal D.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Lawrence, David M.

2018-01-01

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison. PMID:29645013

Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal Dean;

Confronting weather and climate models with observational data from soil moisture networks over the United States.

PubMed

Dirmeyer, Paul A; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E; Dorigo, Wouter A; Quiring, Steven M; Ford, Trenton W; Santanello, Joseph A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Ek, Michael B; Koster, Randal D; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Lawrence, David M

2016-04-01

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

PubMed

Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

2002-03-01

Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

Robust hypothesis tests for detecting statistical evidence of two-dimensional and three-dimensional interactions in single-molecule measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calderon, Christopher P.; Weiss, Lucien E.; Moerner, W. E.

2014-05-01

Experimental advances have improved the two- (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) spatial resolution that can be extracted from in vivo single-molecule measurements. This enables researchers to quantitatively infer the magnitude and directionality of forces experienced by biomolecules in their native environment. Situations where such force information is relevant range from mitosis to directed transport of protein cargo along cytoskeletal structures. Models commonly applied to quantify single-molecule dynamics assume that effective forces and velocity in the x ,y (or x ,y,z) directions are statistically independent, but this assumption is physically unrealistic in many situations. We present a hypothesis testing approach capable of determining if there is evidence of statistical dependence between positional coordinates in experimentally measured trajectories; if the hypothesis of independence between spatial coordinates is rejected, then a new model accounting for 2D (3D) interactions can and should be considered. Our hypothesis testing technique is robust, meaning it can detect interactions, even if the noise statistics are not well captured by the model. The approach is demonstrated on control simulations and on experimental data (directed transport of intraflagellar transport protein 88 homolog in the primary cilium).

Task-Driven Comparison of Topic Models.

PubMed

Alexander, Eric; Gleicher, Michael

2016-01-01

Topic modeling, a method of statistically extracting thematic content from a large collection of texts, is used for a wide variety of tasks within text analysis. Though there are a growing number of tools and techniques for exploring single models, comparisons between models are generally reduced to a small set of numerical metrics. These metrics may or may not reflect a model's performance on the analyst's intended task, and can therefore be insufficient to diagnose what causes differences between models. In this paper, we explore task-centric topic model comparison, considering how we can both provide detail for a more nuanced understanding of differences and address the wealth of tasks for which topic models are used. We derive comparison tasks from single-model uses of topic models, which predominantly fall into the categories of understanding topics, understanding similarity, and understanding change. Finally, we provide several visualization techniques that facilitate these tasks, including buddy plots, which combine color and position encodings to allow analysts to readily view changes in document similarity.

Metamodels for Computer-Based Engineering Design: Survey and Recommendations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simpson, Timothy W.; Peplinski, Jesse; Koch, Patrick N.; Allen, Janet K.

1997-01-01

The use of statistical techniques to build approximations of expensive computer analysis codes pervades much of todays engineering design. These statistical approximations, or metamodels, are used to replace the actual expensive computer analyses, facilitating multidisciplinary, multiobjective optimization and concept exploration. In this paper we review several of these techniques including design of experiments, response surface methodology, Taguchi methods, neural networks, inductive learning, and kriging. We survey their existing application in engineering design and then address the dangers of applying traditional statistical techniques to approximate deterministic computer analysis codes. We conclude with recommendations for the appropriate use of statistical approximation techniques in given situations and how common pitfalls can be avoided.