Discovering human germ cell mutagens with whole genome sequencing: Insights from power calculations reveal the importance of controlling for between-family variability.

PubMed

Webster, R J; Williams, A; Marchetti, F; Yauk, C L

2018-07-01

Mutations in germ cells pose potential genetic risks to offspring. However, de novo mutations are rare events that are spread across the genome and are difficult to detect. Thus, studies in this area have generally been under-powered, and no human germ cell mutagen has been identified. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) of human pedigrees has been proposed as an approach to overcome these technical and statistical challenges. WGS enables analysis of a much wider breadth of the genome than traditional approaches. Here, we performed power analyses to determine the feasibility of using WGS in human families to identify germ cell mutagens. Different statistical models were compared in the power analyses (ANOVA and multiple regression for one-child families, and mixed effect model sampling between two to four siblings per family). Assumptions were made based on parameters from the existing literature, such as the mutation-by-paternal age effect. We explored two scenarios: a constant effect due to an exposure that occurred in the past, and an accumulating effect where the exposure is continuing. Our analysis revealed the importance of modeling inter-family variability of the mutation-by-paternal age effect. Statistical power was improved by models accounting for the family-to-family variability. Our power analyses suggest that sufficient statistical power can be attained with 4-28 four-sibling families per treatment group, when the increase in mutations ranges from 40 to 10% respectively. Modeling family variability using mixed effect models provided a reduction in sample size compared to a multiple regression approach. Much larger sample sizes were required to detect an interaction effect between environmental exposures and paternal age. These findings inform study design and statistical modeling approaches to improve power and reduce sequencing costs for future studies in this area. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical Learning is Related to Early Literacy-Related Skills

PubMed Central

Spencer, Mercedes; Kaschak, Michael P.; Jones, John L.; Lonigan, Christopher J.

2015-01-01

It has been demonstrated that statistical learning, or the ability to use statistical information to learn the structure of one’s environment, plays a role in young children’s acquisition of linguistic knowledge. Although most research on statistical learning has focused on language acquisition processes, such as the segmentation of words from fluent speech and the learning of syntactic structure, some recent studies have explored the extent to which individual differences in statistical learning are related to literacy-relevant knowledge and skills. The present study extends on this literature by investigating the relations between two measures of statistical learning and multiple measures of skills that are critical to the development of literacy—oral language, vocabulary knowledge, and phonological processing—within a single model. Our sample included a total of 553 typically developing children from prekindergarten through second grade. Structural equation modeling revealed that statistical learning accounted for a unique portion of the variance in these literacy-related skills. Practical implications for instruction and assessment are discussed. PMID:26478658

Statistical-mechanics theory of active mode locking with noise.

PubMed

Gordon, Ariel; Fischer, Baruch

2004-05-01

Actively mode-locked lasers with noise are studied employing statistical mechanics. A mapping of the system to the spherical model (related to the Ising model) of ferromagnets in one dimension that has an exact solution is established. It gives basic features, such as analytical expressions for the correlation function between modes, and the widths and shapes of the pulses [different from the Kuizenga-Siegman expression; IEEE J. Quantum Electron. QE-6, 803 (1970)] and reveals the susceptibility to noise of mode ordering compared with passive mode locking.

Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; ...

2010-01-01

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. Whilemore » this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.« less

A statistical model of aggregate fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spahn, F.; Vieira Neto, E.; Guimarães, A. H. F.; Gorban, A. N.; Brilliantov, N. V.

2014-01-01

A statistical model of fragmentation of aggregates is proposed, based on the stochastic propagation of cracks through the body. The propagation rules are formulated on a lattice and mimic two important features of the process—a crack moves against the stress gradient while dissipating energy during its growth. We perform numerical simulations of the model for two-dimensional lattice and reveal that the mass distribution for small- and intermediate-size fragments obeys a power law, F(m)∝m-3/2, in agreement with experimental observations. We develop an analytical theory which explains the detected power law and demonstrate that the overall fragment mass distribution in our model agrees qualitatively with that one observed in experiments.

Numerical and Qualitative Contrasts of Two Statistical Models ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Two statistical approaches, weighted regression on time, discharge, and season and generalized additive models, have recently been used to evaluate water quality trends in estuaries. Both models have been used in similar contexts despite differences in statistical foundations and products. This study provided an empirical and qualitative comparison of both models using 29 years of data for two discrete time series of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in the Patuxent River estuary. Empirical descriptions of each model were based on predictive performance against the observed data, ability to reproduce flow-normalized trends with simulated data, and comparisons of performance with validation datasets. Between-model differences were apparent but minor and both models had comparable abilities to remove flow effects from simulated time series. Both models similarly predicted observations for missing data with different characteristics. Trends from each model revealed distinct mainstem influences of the Chesapeake Bay with both models predicting a roughly 65% increase in chl-a over time in the lower estuary, whereas flow-normalized predictions for the upper estuary showed a more dynamic pattern, with a nearly 100% increase in chl-a in the last 10 years. Qualitative comparisons highlighted important differences in the statistical structure, available products, and characteristics of the data and desired analysis. This manuscript describes a quantitative comparison of two recently-

Large behavioral variability of motile E. coli revealed in 3D spatial exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa-Morales, N.; Darnige, T.; Martinez, V.; Douarche, C.; Soto, R.; Lindner, A.; Clement, E.

2017-11-01

Bacterial motility determines the spatio-temporal structure of microbial communities, controls infection spreading and the microbiota organization in guts or in soils. Quantitative modeling of chemotaxis and statistical descriptions of active bacterial suspensions currently rely on the classical vision of a run-and-tumble strategy exploited by bacteria to explore their environment. Here we report a large behavioral variability of wild-type E. coli, revealed in their three-dimensional trajectories. We found a broad distribution of run times for individual cells, in stark contrast with the accepted vision of a single characteristic time. We relate our results to the slow fluctuations of a signaling protein which triggers the switching of the flagellar motor reversal responsible for tumbles. We demonstrate that such a large distribution of run times introduces measurement biases in most practical situations. These results reconcile a notorious conundrum between observations of run times and motor switching statistics. Our study implies that the statistical modeling of transport properties and of the chemotactic response of bacterial populations need to be profoundly revised to correctly account for the large variability of motility features.

QSAR study of curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors.

PubMed

Gupta, Pawan; Sharma, Anju; Garg, Prabha; Roy, Nilanjan

2013-03-01

A QSAR study was performed on curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors using multiple linear regression. The statistically significant model was developed with squared correlation coefficients (r(2)) 0.891 and cross validated r(2) (r(2) cv) 0.825. The developed model revealed that electronic, shape, size, geometry, substitution's information and hydrophilicity were important atomic properties for determining the inhibitory activity of these molecules. The model was also tested successfully for external validation (r(2) pred = 0.849) as well as Tropsha's test for model predictability. Furthermore, the domain analysis was carried out to evaluate the prediction reliability of external set molecules. The model was statistically robust and had good predictive power which can be successfully utilized for screening of new molecules.

Do sophisticated epistemic beliefs predict meaningful learning? Findings from a structural equation model of undergraduate biology learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Silvia Wen-Yu; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2016-10-01

This study investigated the relationships among college students' epistemic beliefs in biology (EBB), conceptions of learning biology (COLB), and strategies of learning biology (SLB). EBB includes four dimensions, namely 'multiple-source,' 'uncertainty,' 'development,' and 'justification.' COLB is further divided into 'constructivist' and 'reproductive' conceptions, while SLB represents deep strategies and surface learning strategies. Questionnaire responses were gathered from 303 college students. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling showed acceptable model fits. Mediation testing further revealed two paths with complete mediation. In sum, students' epistemic beliefs of 'uncertainty' and 'justification' in biology were statistically significant in explaining the constructivist and reproductive COLB, respectively; and 'uncertainty' was statistically significant in explaining the deep SLB as well. The results of mediation testing further revealed that 'uncertainty' predicted surface strategies through the mediation of 'reproductive' conceptions; and the relationship between 'justification' and deep strategies was mediated by 'constructivist' COLB. This study provides evidence for the essential roles some epistemic beliefs play in predicting students' learning.

Statistical Model of Dynamic Markers of the Alzheimer's Pathological Cascade.

PubMed

Balsis, Steve; Geraci, Lisa; Benge, Jared; Lowe, Deborah A; Choudhury, Tabina K; Tirso, Robert; Doody, Rachelle S

2018-05-05

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive disease reflected in markers across assessment modalities, including neuroimaging, cognitive testing, and evaluation of adaptive function. Identifying a single continuum of decline across assessment modalities in a single sample is statistically challenging because of the multivariate nature of the data. To address this challenge, we implemented advanced statistical analyses designed specifically to model complex data across a single continuum. We analyzed data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI; N = 1,056), focusing on indicators from the assessments of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) volume, fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) metabolic activity, cognitive performance, and adaptive function. Item response theory was used to identify the continuum of decline. Then, through a process of statistical scaling, indicators across all modalities were linked to that continuum and analyzed. Findings revealed that measures of MRI volume, FDG-PET metabolic activity, and adaptive function added measurement precision beyond that provided by cognitive measures, particularly in the relatively mild range of disease severity. More specifically, MRI volume, and FDG-PET metabolic activity become compromised in the very mild range of severity, followed by cognitive performance and finally adaptive function. Our statistically derived models of the AD pathological cascade are consistent with existing theoretical models.

Implication of correlations among some common stability statistics - a Monte Carlo simulations.

PubMed

Piepho, H P

1995-03-01

Stability analysis of multilocation trials is often based on a mixed two-way model. Two stability measures in frequent use are the environmental variance (S i (2) )and the ecovalence (W i). Under the two-way model the rank orders of the expected values of these two statistics are identical for a given set of genotypes. By contrast, empirical rank correlations among these measures are consistently low. This suggests that the two-way mixed model may not be appropriate for describing real data. To check this hypothesis, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted. It revealed that the low empirical rank correlation amongS i (2) and W i is most likely due to sampling errors. It is concluded that the observed low rank correlation does not invalidate the two-way model. The paper also discusses tests for homogeneity of S i (2) as well as implications of the two-way model for the classification of stability statistics.

Superthermal photon bunching in terms of simple probability distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettau, T.; Leymann, H. A. M.; Melcher, B.; Wiersig, J.

2018-05-01

We analyze the second-order photon autocorrelation function g(2 ) with respect to the photon probability distribution and discuss the generic features of a distribution that results in superthermal photon bunching [g(2 )(0 ) >2 ]. Superthermal photon bunching has been reported for a number of optical microcavity systems that exhibit processes such as superradiance or mode competition. We show that a superthermal photon number distribution cannot be constructed from the principle of maximum entropy if only the intensity and the second-order autocorrelation are given. However, for bimodal systems, an unbiased superthermal distribution can be constructed from second-order correlations and the intensities alone. Our findings suggest modeling superthermal single-mode distributions by a mixture of a thermal and a lasinglike state and thus reveal a generic mechanism in the photon probability distribution responsible for creating superthermal photon bunching. We relate our general considerations to a physical system, i.e., a (single-emitter) bimodal laser, and show that its statistics can be approximated and understood within our proposed model. Furthermore, the excellent agreement of the statistics of the bimodal laser and our model reveals that the bimodal laser is an ideal source of bunched photons, in the sense that it can generate statistics that contain no other features but the superthermal bunching.

Evidential evaluation of DNA profiles using a discrete statistical model implemented in the DNA LiRa software.

PubMed

Puch-Solis, Roberto; Clayton, Tim

2014-07-01

The high sensitivity of the technology for producing profiles means that it has become routine to produce profiles from relatively small quantities of DNA. The profiles obtained from low template DNA (LTDNA) are affected by several phenomena which must be taken into consideration when interpreting and evaluating this evidence. Furthermore, many of the same phenomena affect profiles from higher amounts of DNA (e.g. where complex mixtures has been revealed). In this article we present a statistical model, which forms the basis of software DNA LiRa, and that is able to calculate likelihood ratios where one to four donors are postulated and for any number of replicates. The model can take into account dropin and allelic dropout for different contributors, template degradation and uncertain allele designations. In this statistical model unknown parameters are treated following the Empirical Bayesian paradigm. The performance of LiRa is tested using examples and the outputs are compared with those generated using two other statistical software packages likeLTD and LRmix. The concept of ban efficiency is introduced as a measure for assessing model sensitivity. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Bridging the Gap between Theory and Model: A Reflection on the Balance Scale Task.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turner, Geoffrey F. W.; Thomas, Hoben

2002-01-01

Focuses on individual strengths of articles by Jensen and van der Maas, and Halford et al., and the power of their combined perspectives. Suggests a performance model that can both evaluate specific theoretical claims and reveal important data features that had been previously obscured using conventional statistical analyses. Maintains that the…

Verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class's recovery resilience and productive aging.

PubMed

Cho, Gun-Sang; Kim, Dae-Sung; Yi, Eun-Surk

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study is to verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class's recovery resilience and productive aging. As of 2013, this study sampled preliminary elderly people in Gyeonggi-do and other provinces nationwide. Data from a total of effective 484 subjects was analyzed. The collected data was processed using the IBM SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0, and underwent descriptive statistical analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structure model verification. The path coefficient associated with model fitness was examined. The standardization path coefficient between recovery resilience and productive aging is β=0.975 (t=14.790), revealing a statistically significant positive effect. Thus, it was found that the proposed basic model on the direct path of recovery resilience and productive aging was fit for the model.

Verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class’s recovery resilience and productive aging

PubMed Central

Cho, Gun-Sang; Kim, Dae-Sung; Yi, Eun-Surk

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to verification of relationship model between Korean new elderly class’s recovery resilience and productive aging. As of 2013, this study sampled preliminary elderly people in Gyeonggi-do and other provinces nationwide. Data from a total of effective 484 subjects was analyzed. The collected data was processed using the IBM SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0, and underwent descriptive statistical analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structure model verification. The path coefficient associated with model fitness was examined. The standardization path coefficient between recovery resilience and productive aging is β=0.975 (t=14.790), revealing a statistically significant positive effect. Thus, it was found that the proposed basic model on the direct path of recovery resilience and productive aging was fit for the model. PMID:26730383

Fragment size distribution statistics in dynamic fragmentation of laser shock-loaded tin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Weihua; Xin, Jianting; Zhao, Yongqiang; Chu, Genbai; Xi, Tao; Shui, Min; Lu, Feng; Gu, Yuqiu

2017-06-01

This work investigates the geometric statistics method to characterize the size distribution of tin fragments produced in the laser shock-loaded dynamic fragmentation process. In the shock experiments, the ejection of the tin sample with etched V-shape groove in the free surface are collected by the soft recovery technique. Subsequently, the produced fragments are automatically detected with the fine post-shot analysis techniques including the X-ray micro-tomography and the improved watershed method. To characterize the size distributions of the fragments, a theoretical random geometric statistics model based on Poisson mixtures is derived for dynamic heterogeneous fragmentation problem, which reveals linear combinational exponential distribution. The experimental data related to fragment size distributions of the laser shock-loaded tin sample are examined with the proposed theoretical model, and its fitting performance is compared with that of other state-of-the-art fragment size distribution models. The comparison results prove that our proposed model can provide far more reasonable fitting result for the laser shock-loaded tin.

Mesoscale high-resolution modeling of extreme wind speeds over western water areas of the Russian Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Platonov, Vladimir S.; Kislov, Alexander V.

2016-11-01

A statistical analysis of extreme weather events over coastal areas of the Russian Arctic based on observational data has revealed many interesting features of wind velocity distributions. It has been shown that the extremes contain data belonging to two different statistical populations. Each of them is reliably described by a Weibull distribution. According to the standard terminology, these sets of extremes are named ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’. The ‘dragons’ are responsible for most extremes, surpassing the ‘black swans’ by 10 - 30 %. Since the data of the global climate model INM-CM4 do not contain ‘dragons’, the wind speed extremes are investigated on the mesoscale using the COSMO-CLM model. The modelling results reveal no differences between the ‘swans’ and ‘dragons’ situations. It could be associated with the poor sample data used. However, according to many case studies and modeling results we assume that it is caused by a rare superposition of large-scale synoptic factors and many local meso- and microscale factors (surface, coastline configuration, etc.). Further studies of extreme wind speeds in the Arctic, such as ‘black swans’ and ‘dragons’, are necessary to focus on non-hydrostatic high-resolution atmospheric modelling using downscaling techniques.

Statistical properties of superimposed stationary spike trains.

PubMed

Deger, Moritz; Helias, Moritz; Boucsein, Clemens; Rotter, Stefan

2012-06-01

The Poisson process is an often employed model for the activity of neuronal populations. It is known, though, that superpositions of realistic, non- Poisson spike trains are not in general Poisson processes, not even for large numbers of superimposed processes. Here we construct superimposed spike trains from intracellular in vivo recordings from rat neocortex neurons and compare their statistics to specific point process models. The constructed superimposed spike trains reveal strong deviations from the Poisson model. We find that superpositions of model spike trains that take the effective refractoriness of the neurons into account yield a much better description. A minimal model of this kind is the Poisson process with dead-time (PPD). For this process, and for superpositions thereof, we obtain analytical expressions for some second-order statistical quantities-like the count variability, inter-spike interval (ISI) variability and ISI correlations-and demonstrate the match with the in vivo data. We conclude that effective refractoriness is the key property that shapes the statistical properties of the superposition spike trains. We present new, efficient algorithms to generate superpositions of PPDs and of gamma processes that can be used to provide more realistic background input in simulations of networks of spiking neurons. Using these generators, we show in simulations that neurons which receive superimposed spike trains as input are highly sensitive for the statistical effects induced by neuronal refractoriness.

Assessment of the long-lead probabilistic prediction for the Asian summer monsoon precipitation (1983-2011) based on the APCC multimodel system and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohn, Soo-Jin; Min, Young-Mi; Lee, June-Yi; Tam, Chi-Yung; Kang, In-Sik; Wang, Bin; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Yamagata, Toshio

2012-02-01

The performance of the probabilistic multimodel prediction (PMMP) system of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) in predicting the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation at a four-month lead (with February initial condition) was compared with that of a statistical model using hindcast data for 1983-2005 and real-time forecasts for 2006-2011. Particular attention was paid to probabilistic precipitation forecasts for the boreal summer after the mature phase of El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Taking into account the fact that coupled models' skill for boreal spring and summer precipitation mainly comes from their ability to capture ENSO teleconnection, we developed the statistical model using linear regression with the preceding winter ENSO condition as the predictor. Our results reveal several advantages and disadvantages in both forecast systems. First, the PMMP appears to have higher skills for both above- and below-normal categories in the six-year real-time forecast period, whereas the cross-validated statistical model has higher skills during the 23-year hindcast period. This implies that the cross-validated statistical skill may be overestimated. Second, the PMMP is the better tool for capturing atypical ENSO (or non-canonical ENSO related) teleconnection, which has affected the ASM precipitation during the early 1990s and in the recent decade. Third, the statistical model is more sensitive to the ENSO phase and has an advantage in predicting the ASM precipitation after the mature phase of La Niña.

A canonical neural mechanism for behavioral variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darshan, Ran; Wood, William E.; Peters, Susan; Leblois, Arthur; Hansel, David

2017-05-01

The ability to generate variable movements is essential for learning and adjusting complex behaviours. This variability has been linked to the temporal irregularity of neuronal activity in the central nervous system. However, how neuronal irregularity actually translates into behavioural variability is unclear. Here we combine modelling, electrophysiological and behavioural studies to address this issue. We demonstrate that a model circuit comprising topographically organized and strongly recurrent neural networks can autonomously generate irregular motor behaviours. Simultaneous recordings of neurons in singing finches reveal that neural correlations increase across the circuit driving song variability, in agreement with the model predictions. Analysing behavioural data, we find remarkable similarities in the babbling statistics of 5-6-month-old human infants and juveniles from three songbird species and show that our model naturally accounts for these `universal' statistics.

Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Methods Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. Results The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., < 15 years) and illiterate residents, as well as a high proportion of individuals being either unemployed or doing housework. Conclusions Both modeling approaches reveal similar outputs, indicating that in the absence of local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability “hotspots” into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention strategies. The results support decision makers to allocate resources in a manner that may reduce existing susceptibilities and strengthen resilience, and thus help to reduce the burden of vector-borne diseases. PMID:23945265

QSAR Study of p56lck Protein Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitory Activity of Flavonoid Derivatives Using MLR and GA-PLS

PubMed Central

Fassihi, Afshin; Sabet, Razieh

2008-01-01

Quantitative relationships between molecular structure and p56lck protein tyrosine kinase inhibitory activity of 50 flavonoid derivatives are discovered by MLR and GA-PLS methods. Different QSAR models revealed that substituent electronic descriptors (SED) parameters have significant impact on protein tyrosine kinase inhibitory activity of the compounds. Between the two statistical methods employed, GA-PLS gave superior results. The resultant GA-PLS model had a high statistical quality (R2 = 0.74 and Q2 = 0.61) for predicting the activity of the inhibitors. The models proposed in the present work are more useful in describing QSAR of flavonoid derivatives as p56lck protein tyrosine kinase inhibitors than those provided previously. PMID:19325836

Tooth-size discrepancy: A comparison between manual and digital methods

PubMed Central

Correia, Gabriele Dória Cabral; Habib, Fernando Antonio Lima; Vogel, Carlos Jorge

2014-01-01

Introduction Technological advances in Dentistry have emerged primarily in the area of diagnostic tools. One example is the 3D scanner, which can transform plaster models into three-dimensional digital models. Objective This study aimed to assess the reliability of tooth size-arch length discrepancy analysis measurements performed on three-dimensional digital models, and compare these measurements with those obtained from plaster models. Material and Methods To this end, plaster models of lower dental arches and their corresponding three-dimensional digital models acquired with a 3Shape R700T scanner were used. All of them had lower permanent dentition. Four different tooth size-arch length discrepancy calculations were performed on each model, two of which by manual methods using calipers and brass wire, and two by digital methods using linear measurements and parabolas. Results Data were statistically assessed using Friedman test and no statistically significant differences were found between the two methods (P > 0.05), except for values found by the linear digital method which revealed a slight, non-significant statistical difference. Conclusions Based on the results, it is reasonable to assert that any of these resources used by orthodontists to clinically assess tooth size-arch length discrepancy can be considered reliable. PMID:25279529

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

2017-06-01

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

The impact on midlevel vision of statistically optimal divisive normalization in V1.

PubMed

Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2013-07-15

The first two areas of the primate visual cortex (V1, V2) provide a paradigmatic example of hierarchical computation in the brain. However, neither the functional properties of V2 nor the interactions between the two areas are well understood. One key aspect is that the statistics of the inputs received by V2 depend on the nonlinear response properties of V1. Here, we focused on divisive normalization, a canonical nonlinear computation that is observed in many neural areas and modalities. We simulated V1 responses with (and without) different forms of surround normalization derived from statistical models of natural scenes, including canonical normalization and a statistically optimal extension that accounted for image nonhomogeneities. The statistics of the V1 population responses differed markedly across models. We then addressed how V2 receptive fields pool the responses of V1 model units with different tuning. We assumed this is achieved by learning without supervision a linear representation that removes correlations, which could be accomplished with principal component analysis. This approach revealed V2-like feature selectivity when we used the optimal normalization and, to a lesser extent, the canonical one but not in the absence of both. We compared the resulting two-stage models on two perceptual tasks; while models encompassing V1 surround normalization performed better at object recognition, only statistically optimal normalization provided systematic advantages in a task more closely matched to midlevel vision, namely figure/ground judgment. Our results suggest that experiments probing midlevel areas might benefit from using stimuli designed to engage the computations that characterize V1 optimality.

Individual risk factors for deep infection and compromised fracture healing after intramedullary nailing of tibial shaft fractures: a single centre experience of 480 patients.

PubMed

Metsemakers, W-J; Handojo, K; Reynders, P; Sermon, A; Vanderschot, P; Nijs, S

2015-04-01

Despite modern advances in the treatment of tibial shaft fractures, complications including nonunion, malunion, and infection remain relatively frequent. A better understanding of these injuries and its complications could lead to prevention rather than treatment strategies. A retrospective study was performed to identify risk factors for deep infection and compromised fracture healing after intramedullary nailing (IMN) of tibial shaft fractures. Between January 2000 and January 2012, 480 consecutive patients with 486 tibial shaft fractures were enrolled in the study. Statistical analysis was performed to determine predictors of deep infection and compromised fracture healing. Compromised fracture healing was subdivided in delayed union and nonunion. The following independent variables were selected for analysis: age, sex, smoking, obesity, diabetes, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) classification, polytrauma, fracture type, open fractures, Gustilo type, primary external fixation (EF), time to nailing (TTN) and reaming. As primary statistical evaluation we performed a univariate analysis, followed by a multiple logistic regression model. Univariate regression analysis revealed similar risk factors for delayed union and nonunion, including fracture type, open fractures and Gustilo type. Factors affecting the occurrence of deep infection in this model were primary EF, a prolonged TTN, open fractures and Gustilo type. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed polytrauma as the single risk factor for nonunion. With respect to delayed union, no risk factors could be identified. In the same statistical model, deep infection was correlated with primary EF. The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk factors of poor outcome after IMN of tibial shaft fractures. The univariate regression analysis showed that the nature of complications after tibial shaft nailing could be multifactorial. This was not confirmed in a multiple logistic regression model, which only revealed polytrauma and primary EF as risk factors for nonunion and deep infection, respectively. Future strategies should focus on prevention in high-risk populations such as polytrauma patients treated with EF. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Statistical physics of the symmetric group.

PubMed

Williams, Mobolaji

2017-04-01

Ordered chains (such as chains of amino acids) are ubiquitous in biological cells, and these chains perform specific functions contingent on the sequence of their components. Using the existence and general properties of such sequences as a theoretical motivation, we study the statistical physics of systems whose state space is defined by the possible permutations of an ordered list, i.e., the symmetric group, and whose energy is a function of how certain permutations deviate from some chosen correct ordering. Such a nonfactorizable state space is quite different from the state spaces typically considered in statistical physics systems and consequently has novel behavior in systems with interacting and even noninteracting Hamiltonians. Various parameter choices of a mean-field model reveal the system to contain five different physical regimes defined by two transition temperatures, a triple point, and a quadruple point. Finally, we conclude by discussing how the general analysis can be extended to state spaces with more complex combinatorial properties and to other standard questions of statistical mechanics models.

Statistical physics of the symmetric group

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Mobolaji

2017-04-01

Ordered chains (such as chains of amino acids) are ubiquitous in biological cells, and these chains perform specific functions contingent on the sequence of their components. Using the existence and general properties of such sequences as a theoretical motivation, we study the statistical physics of systems whose state space is defined by the possible permutations of an ordered list, i.e., the symmetric group, and whose energy is a function of how certain permutations deviate from some chosen correct ordering. Such a nonfactorizable state space is quite different from the state spaces typically considered in statistical physics systems and consequently has novel behavior in systems with interacting and even noninteracting Hamiltonians. Various parameter choices of a mean-field model reveal the system to contain five different physical regimes defined by two transition temperatures, a triple point, and a quadruple point. Finally, we conclude by discussing how the general analysis can be extended to state spaces with more complex combinatorial properties and to other standard questions of statistical mechanics models.

Methods of comparing associative models and an application to retrospective revaluation.

PubMed

Witnauer, James E; Hutchings, Ryan; Miller, Ralph R

2017-11-01

Contemporary theories of associative learning are increasingly complex, which necessitates the use of computational methods to reveal predictions of these models. We argue that comparisons across multiple models in terms of goodness of fit to empirical data from experiments often reveal more about the actual mechanisms of learning and behavior than do simulations of only a single model. Such comparisons are best made when the values of free parameters are discovered through some optimization procedure based on the specific data being fit (e.g., hill climbing), so that the comparisons hinge on the psychological mechanisms assumed by each model rather than being biased by using parameters that differ in quality across models with respect to the data being fit. Statistics like the Bayesian information criterion facilitate comparisons among models that have different numbers of free parameters. These issues are examined using retrospective revaluation data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A canonical neural mechanism for behavioral variability

PubMed Central

Darshan, Ran; Wood, William E.; Peters, Susan; Leblois, Arthur; Hansel, David

2017-01-01

The ability to generate variable movements is essential for learning and adjusting complex behaviours. This variability has been linked to the temporal irregularity of neuronal activity in the central nervous system. However, how neuronal irregularity actually translates into behavioural variability is unclear. Here we combine modelling, electrophysiological and behavioural studies to address this issue. We demonstrate that a model circuit comprising topographically organized and strongly recurrent neural networks can autonomously generate irregular motor behaviours. Simultaneous recordings of neurons in singing finches reveal that neural correlations increase across the circuit driving song variability, in agreement with the model predictions. Analysing behavioural data, we find remarkable similarities in the babbling statistics of 5–6-month-old human infants and juveniles from three songbird species and show that our model naturally accounts for these ‘universal' statistics. PMID:28530225

Statistical distributions of avalanche size and waiting times in an inter-sandpile cascade model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batac, Rene; Longjas, Anthony; Monterola, Christopher

2012-02-01

Sandpile-based models have successfully shed light on key features of nonlinear relaxational processes in nature, particularly the occurrence of fat-tailed magnitude distributions and exponential return times, from simple local stress redistributions. In this work, we extend the existing sandpile paradigm into an inter-sandpile cascade, wherein the avalanches emanating from a uniformly-driven sandpile (first layer) is used to trigger the next (second layer), and so on, in a successive fashion. Statistical characterizations reveal that avalanche size distributions evolve from a power-law p(S)≈S-1.3 for the first layer to gamma distributions p(S)≈Sαexp(-S/S0) for layers far away from the uniformly driven sandpile. The resulting avalanche size statistics is found to be associated with the corresponding waiting time distribution, as explained in an accompanying analytic formulation. Interestingly, both the numerical and analytic models show good agreement with actual inventories of non-uniformly driven events in nature.

Solar granulation and statistical crystallography: A modeling approach using size-shape relations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noever, D. A.

1994-01-01

The irregular polygonal pattern of solar granulation is analyzed for size-shape relations using statistical crystallography. In contrast to previous work which has assumed perfectly hexagonal patterns for granulation, more realistic accounting of cell (granule) shapes reveals a broader basis for quantitative analysis. Several features emerge as noteworthy: (1) a linear correlation between number of cell-sides and neighboring shapes (called Aboav-Weaire's law); (2) a linear correlation between both average cell area and perimeter and the number of cell-sides (called Lewis's law and a perimeter law, respectively) and (3) a linear correlation between cell area and squared perimeter (called convolution index). This statistical picture of granulation is consistent with a finding of no correlation in cell shapes beyond nearest neighbors. A comparative calculation between existing model predictions taken from luminosity data and the present analysis shows substantial agreements for cell-size distributions. A model for understanding grain lifetimes is proposed which links convective times to cell shape using crystallographic results.

A Comparison of Statistical Techniques for Combining Modeled and Observed Concentrations to Create High-Resolution Ozone Air Quality Surfaces

EPA Science Inventory

Air quality surfaces representing pollutant concentrations across space and time are needed for many applications, including tracking trends and relating air quality to human and ecosystem health. The spatial and temporal characteristics of these surfaces may reveal new informat...

A hybrid ARIMA and neural network model applied to forecast catch volumes of Selar crumenophthalmus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aquino, Ronald L.; Alcantara, Nialle Loui Mar T.; Addawe, Rizavel C.

2017-11-01

The Selar crumenophthalmus with the English name big-eyed scad fish, locally known as matang-baka, is one of the fishes commonly caught along the waters of La Union, Philippines. The study deals with the forecasting of catch volumes of big-eyed scad fish for commercial consumption. The data used are quarterly caught volumes of big-eyed scad fish from 2002 to first quarter of 2017. This actual data is available from the open stat database published by the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)whose task is to collect, compiles, analyzes and publish information concerning different aspects of the Philippine setting. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Hybrid model consisting of ARIMA and ANN were developed to forecast catch volumes of big-eyed scad fish. Statistical errors such as Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) were computed and compared to choose the most suitable model for forecasting the catch volume for the next few quarters. A comparison of the results of each model and corresponding statistical errors reveals that the hybrid model, ARIMA-ANN (2,1,2)(6:3:1), is the most suitable model to forecast the catch volumes of the big-eyed scad fish for the next few quarters.

Quantifying the influences of various ecological factors on land surface temperature of urban forests.

PubMed

Ren, Yin; Deng, Lu-Ying; Zuo, Shu-Di; Song, Xiao-Dong; Liao, Yi-Lan; Xu, Cheng-Dong; Chen, Qi; Hua, Li-Zhong; Li, Zheng-Wei

2016-09-01

Identifying factors that influence the land surface temperature (LST) of urban forests can help improve simulations and predictions of spatial patterns of urban cool islands. This requires a quantitative analytical method that combines spatial statistical analysis with multi-source observational data. The purpose of this study was to reveal how human activities and ecological factors jointly influence LST in clustering regions (hot or cool spots) of urban forests. Using Xiamen City, China from 1996 to 2006 as a case study, we explored the interactions between human activities and ecological factors, as well as their influences on urban forest LST. Population density was selected as a proxy for human activity. We integrated multi-source data (forest inventory, digital elevation models (DEM), population, and remote sensing imagery) to develop a database on a unified urban scale. The driving mechanism of urban forest LST was revealed through a combination of multi-source spatial data and spatial statistical analysis of clustering regions. The results showed that the main factors contributing to urban forest LST were dominant tree species and elevation. The interactions between human activity and specific ecological factors linearly or nonlinearly increased LST in urban forests. Strong interactions between elevation and dominant species were generally observed and were prevalent in either hot or cold spots areas in different years. In conclusion, quantitative studies based on spatial statistics and GeogDetector models should be conducted in urban areas to reveal interactions between human activities, ecological factors, and LST. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Assessment of Land Surface and Lightning Characteristics Associated with Lightning-Initiated Wildfires

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coy, James; Schultz, Christopher J.; Case, Jonathan L.

2017-01-01

Can we use modeled information of the land surface and characteristics of lightning beyond flash occurrence to increase the identification and prediction of wildfires? Combine observed cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes with real-time land surface model output, and Compare data with areas where lightning did not start a wildfire to determine what land surface conditions and lightning characteristics were responsible for causing wildfires. Statistical differences between suspected fire-starters and non-fire-starters were peak-current dependent 0-10 cm Volumetric and Relative Soil Moisture comparisons were statistically dependent to at least the p = 0.05 independence level for both polarity flash types Suspected fire-starters typically occurred in areas of lower soil moisture than non-fire-starters. GVF value comparisons were only found to be statistically dependent for -CG flashes. However, random sampling of the -CG non-fire starter dataset revealed that this relationship may not always hold.

A phylogenetic transform enhances analysis of compositional microbiota data.

PubMed

Silverman, Justin D; Washburne, Alex D; Mukherjee, Sayan; David, Lawrence A

2017-02-15

Surveys of microbial communities (microbiota), typically measured as relative abundance of species, have illustrated the importance of these communities in human health and disease. Yet, statistical artifacts commonly plague the analysis of relative abundance data. Here, we introduce the PhILR transform, which incorporates microbial evolutionary models with the isometric log-ratio transform to allow off-the-shelf statistical tools to be safely applied to microbiota surveys. We demonstrate that analyses of community-level structure can be applied to PhILR transformed data with performance on benchmarks rivaling or surpassing standard tools. Additionally, by decomposing distance in the PhILR transformed space, we identified neighboring clades that may have adapted to distinct human body sites. Decomposing variance revealed that covariation of bacterial clades within human body sites increases with phylogenetic relatedness. Together, these findings illustrate how the PhILR transform combines statistical and phylogenetic models to overcome compositional data challenges and enable evolutionary insights relevant to microbial communities.

Inevitable end-of-21st-century trends toward earlier surface runoff timing in California's Sierra Nevada Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwartz, M. A.; Hall, A. D.; Sun, F.; Walton, D.; Berg, N.

2015-12-01

Hybrid dynamical-statistical downscaling is used to produce surface runoff timing projections for California's Sierra Nevada, a high-elevation mountain range with significant seasonal snow cover. First, future climate change projections (RCP8.5 forcing scenario, 2081-2100 period) from five CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled. These projections reveal that future warming leads to a shift toward earlier snowmelt and surface runoff timing throughout the Sierra Nevada region. Relationships between warming and surface runoff timing from the dynamical simulations are used to build a simple statistical model that mimics the dynamical model's projected surface runoff timing changes given GCM input or other statistically-downscaled input. This statistical model can be used to produce surface runoff timing projections for other GCMs, periods, and forcing scenarios to quantify ensemble-mean changes, uncertainty due to intermodel variability and consequences stemming from choice of forcing scenario. For all CMIP5 GCMs and forcing scenarios, significant trends toward earlier surface runoff timing occur at elevations below 2500m. Thus, we conclude that trends toward earlier surface runoff timing by the end-of-the-21st century are inevitable. The changes to surface runoff timing diagnosed in this study have implications for many dimensions of climate change, including impacts on surface hydrology, water resources, and ecosystems.

A κ-generalized statistical mechanics approach to income analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

2009-02-01

This paper proposes a statistical mechanics approach to the analysis of income distribution and inequality. A new distribution function, having its roots in the framework of κ-generalized statistics, is derived that is particularly suitable for describing the whole spectrum of incomes, from the low-middle income region up to the high income Pareto power-law regime. Analytical expressions for the shape, moments and some other basic statistical properties are given. Furthermore, several well-known econometric tools for measuring inequality, which all exist in a closed form, are considered. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the data on personal income for the United States, and the analysis of inequality performed in terms of its parameters is revealed as very powerful.

The impact on midlevel vision of statistically optimal divisive normalization in V1

PubMed Central

Coen-Cagli, Ruben; Schwartz, Odelia

2013-01-01

The first two areas of the primate visual cortex (V1, V2) provide a paradigmatic example of hierarchical computation in the brain. However, neither the functional properties of V2 nor the interactions between the two areas are well understood. One key aspect is that the statistics of the inputs received by V2 depend on the nonlinear response properties of V1. Here, we focused on divisive normalization, a canonical nonlinear computation that is observed in many neural areas and modalities. We simulated V1 responses with (and without) different forms of surround normalization derived from statistical models of natural scenes, including canonical normalization and a statistically optimal extension that accounted for image nonhomogeneities. The statistics of the V1 population responses differed markedly across models. We then addressed how V2 receptive fields pool the responses of V1 model units with different tuning. We assumed this is achieved by learning without supervision a linear representation that removes correlations, which could be accomplished with principal component analysis. This approach revealed V2-like feature selectivity when we used the optimal normalization and, to a lesser extent, the canonical one but not in the absence of both. We compared the resulting two-stage models on two perceptual tasks; while models encompassing V1 surround normalization performed better at object recognition, only statistically optimal normalization provided systematic advantages in a task more closely matched to midlevel vision, namely figure/ground judgment. Our results suggest that experiments probing midlevel areas might benefit from using stimuli designed to engage the computations that characterize V1 optimality. PMID:23857950

Statistical methods used in the public health literature and implications for training of public health professionals

PubMed Central

Hayat, Matthew J.; Powell, Amanda; Johnson, Tessa; Cadwell, Betsy L.

2017-01-01

Statistical literacy and knowledge is needed to read and understand the public health literature. The purpose of this study was to quantify basic and advanced statistical methods used in public health research. We randomly sampled 216 published articles from seven top tier general public health journals. Studies were reviewed by two readers and a standardized data collection form completed for each article. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and frequency distributions. Results were summarized for statistical methods used in the literature, including descriptive and inferential statistics, modeling, advanced statistical techniques, and statistical software used. Approximately 81.9% of articles reported an observational study design and 93.1% of articles were substantively focused. Descriptive statistics in table or graphical form were reported in more than 95% of the articles, and statistical inference reported in more than 76% of the studies reviewed. These results reveal the types of statistical methods currently used in the public health literature. Although this study did not obtain information on what should be taught, information on statistical methods being used is useful for curriculum development in graduate health sciences education, as well as making informed decisions about continuing education for public health professionals. PMID:28591190

Statistical methods used in the public health literature and implications for training of public health professionals.

PubMed

Hayat, Matthew J; Powell, Amanda; Johnson, Tessa; Cadwell, Betsy L

2017-01-01

Statistical literacy and knowledge is needed to read and understand the public health literature. The purpose of this study was to quantify basic and advanced statistical methods used in public health research. We randomly sampled 216 published articles from seven top tier general public health journals. Studies were reviewed by two readers and a standardized data collection form completed for each article. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and frequency distributions. Results were summarized for statistical methods used in the literature, including descriptive and inferential statistics, modeling, advanced statistical techniques, and statistical software used. Approximately 81.9% of articles reported an observational study design and 93.1% of articles were substantively focused. Descriptive statistics in table or graphical form were reported in more than 95% of the articles, and statistical inference reported in more than 76% of the studies reviewed. These results reveal the types of statistical methods currently used in the public health literature. Although this study did not obtain information on what should be taught, information on statistical methods being used is useful for curriculum development in graduate health sciences education, as well as making informed decisions about continuing education for public health professionals.

Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities - Frequency variability in the tropical Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

1992-01-01

Two techniques were developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters that overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant 'blue shift' of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on 'global' internal-wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12 deg of the equator.

Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines.

PubMed

Carvajal, Thaddeus M; Viacrusis, Katherine M; Hernandez, Lara Fides T; Ho, Howell T; Amalin, Divina M; Watanabe, Kozo

2018-04-17

Several studies have applied ecological factors such as meteorological variables to develop models and accurately predict the temporal pattern of dengue incidence or occurrence. With the vast amount of studies that investigated this premise, the modeling approaches differ from each study and only use a single statistical technique. It raises the question of whether which technique would be robust and reliable. Hence, our study aims to compare the predictive accuracy of the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila as influenced by meteorological factors from four modeling techniques, (a) General Additive Modeling, (b) Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with exogenous variables (c) Random Forest and (d) Gradient Boosting. Dengue incidence and meteorological data (flood, precipitation, temperature, southern oscillation index, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) of Metropolitan Manila from January 1, 2009 - December 31, 2013 were obtained from respective government agencies. Two types of datasets were used in the analysis; observed meteorological factors (MF) and its corresponding delayed or lagged effect (LG). After which, these datasets were subjected to the four modeling techniques. The predictive accuracy and variable importance of each modeling technique were calculated and evaluated. Among the statistical modeling techniques, Random Forest showed the best predictive accuracy. Moreover, the delayed or lag effects of the meteorological variables was shown to be the best dataset to use for such purpose. Thus, the model of Random Forest with delayed meteorological effects (RF-LG) was deemed the best among all assessed models. Relative humidity was shown to be the top-most important meteorological factor in the best model. The study exhibited that there are indeed different predictive outcomes generated from each statistical modeling technique and it further revealed that the Random forest model with delayed meteorological effects to be the best in predicting the temporal pattern of Dengue incidence in Metropolitan Manila. It is also noteworthy that the study also identified relative humidity as an important meteorological factor along with rainfall and temperature that can influence this temporal pattern.

Beyond δ : Tailoring marked statistics to reveal modified gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valogiannis, Georgios; Bean, Rachel

2018-01-01

Models that seek to explain cosmic acceleration through modifications to general relativity (GR) evade stringent Solar System constraints through a restoring, screening mechanism. Down-weighting the high-density, screened regions in favor of the low density, unscreened ones offers the potential to enhance the amount of information carried in such modified gravity models. In this work, we assess the performance of a new "marked" transformation and perform a systematic comparison with the clipping and logarithmic transformations, in the context of Λ CDM and the symmetron and f (R ) modified gravity models. Performance is measured in terms of the fractional boost in the Fisher information and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for these models relative to the statistics derived from the standard density distribution. We find that all three statistics provide improved Fisher boosts over the basic density statistics. The model parameters for the marked and clipped transformation that best enhance signals and the Fisher boosts are determined. We also show that the mark is useful both as a Fourier and real-space transformation; a marked correlation function also enhances the SNR relative to the standard correlation function, and can on mildly nonlinear scales show a significant difference between the Λ CDM and the modified gravity models. Our results demonstrate how a series of simple analytical transformations could dramatically increase the predicted information extracted on deviations from GR, from large-scale surveys, and give the prospect for a much more feasible potential detection.

Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strayhorn, Terrell L.

2008-01-01

Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

Quantile regression reveals hidden bias and uncertainty in habitat models

Treesearch

Brian S. Cade; Barry R. Noon; Curtis H. Flather

2005-01-01

We simulated the effects of missing information on statistical distributions of animal response that covaried with measured predictors of habitat to evaluate the utility and performance of quantile regression for providing more useful intervals of uncertainty in habitat relationships. These procedures were evaulated for conditions in which heterogeneity and hidden bias...

Child-Centered Play Therapy in the Schools: Review and Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ray, Dee C.; Armstrong, Stephen A.; Balkin, Richard S.; Jayne, Kimberly M.

2015-01-01

The authors conducted a meta-analysis and systematic review that examined 23 studies evaluating the effectiveness of child centered play therapy (CCPT) conducted in elementary schools. Meta-analysis results were explored using a random effects model for mean difference and mean gain effect size estimates. Results revealed statistically significant…

Beyond δ: Tailoring marked statistics to reveal modified gravity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valogiannis, Georgios; Bean, Rachel

2018-01-01

Models which attempt to explain the accelerated expansion of the universe through large-scale modifications to General Relativity (GR), must satisfy the stringent experimental constraints of GR in the solar system. Viable candidates invoke a “screening” mechanism, that dynamically suppresses deviations in high density environments, making their overall detection challenging even for ambitious future large-scale structure surveys. We present methods to efficiently simulate the non-linear properties of such theories, and consider how a series of statistics that reweight the density field to accentuate deviations from GR can be applied to enhance the overall signal-to-noise ratio in differentiating the models from GR. Our results demonstrate that the cosmic density field can yield additional, invaluable cosmological information, beyond the simple density power spectrum, that will enable surveys to more confidently discriminate between modified gravity models and ΛCDM.

Inactivation disinfection property of Moringa Oleifera seed extract: optimization and kinetic studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Idris, M. A.; Jami, M. S.; Hammed, A. M.

2017-05-01

This paper presents the statistical optimization study of disinfection inactivation parameters of defatted Moringa oleifera seed extract on Pseudomonas aeruginosa bacterial cells. Three level factorial design was used to estimate the optimum range and the kinetics of the inactivation process was also carried. The inactivation process involved comparing different disinfection models of Chicks-Watson, Collins-Selleck and Homs models. The results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the statistical optimization process revealed that only contact time was significant. The optimum disinfection range of the seed extract was 125 mg/L, 30 minutes and 120rpm agitation. At the optimum dose, the inactivation kinetics followed the Collin-Selleck model with coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.6320. This study is the first of its kind in determining the inactivation kinetics of pseudomonas aeruginosa using the defatted seed extract.

The Ambulatory Integration of the Medical and Social (AIMS) model: A retrospective evaluation.

PubMed

Rowe, Jeannine M; Rizzo, Victoria M; Shier Kricke, Gayle; Krajci, Kate; Rodriguez-Morales, Grisel; Newman, Michelle; Golden, Robyn

2016-01-01

An exploratory, retrospective evaluation of Ambulatory Integration of the Medical and Social (AIMS), a care coordination model designed to integrate medical and non-medical needs of patients and delivered exclusively by social workers was conducted to examine mean utilization of costly health care services for older adult patients. Results reveal mean utilization of 30-day hospital readmissions, emergency department (ED) visits, and hospital admissions are significantly lower for the study sample compared to the larger patient population. Comparisons with national population statistics reveal significantly lower mean utilization of 30-day admissions and ED visits for the study sample. The findings offer preliminary support regarding the value of AIMS.

Modelling and Simulation of Search Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasution, Mahyuddin K. M.

2017-01-01

The best tool currently used to access information is a search engine. Meanwhile, the information space has its own behaviour. Systematically, an information space needs to be familiarized with mathematics so easily we identify the characteristics associated with it. This paper reveal some characteristics of search engine based on a model of document collection, which are then estimated the impact on the feasibility of information. We reveal some of characteristics of search engine on the lemma and theorem about singleton and doubleton, then computes statistically characteristic as simulating the possibility of using search engine. In this case, Google and Yahoo. There are differences in the behaviour of both search engines, although in theory based on the concept of documents collection.

Response to comment on "Nuclear genomic sequences reveal that polar bears are an old and distinct bear lineage".

PubMed

Hailer, Frank; Kutschera, Verena E; Hallström, Björn M; Fain, Steven R; Leonard, Jennifer A; Arnason, Ulfur; Janke, Axel

2013-03-29

Nakagome et al. reanalyzed some of our data and assert that we cannot refute the mitochondrial DNA-based scenario for polar bear evolution. Their single-locus test statistic is strongly affected by introgression and incomplete lineage sorting, whereas our multilocus approaches are better suited to recover the true species relationships. Indeed, our sister-lineage model receives high support in a Bayesian model comparison.

Cloud-based simulations on Google Exacycle reveal ligand modulation of GPCR activation pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohlhoff, Kai J.; Shukla, Diwakar; Lawrenz, Morgan; Bowman, Gregory R.; Konerding, David E.; Belov, Dan; Altman, Russ B.; Pande, Vijay S.

2014-01-01

Simulations can provide tremendous insight into the atomistic details of biological mechanisms, but micro- to millisecond timescales are historically only accessible on dedicated supercomputers. We demonstrate that cloud computing is a viable alternative that brings long-timescale processes within reach of a broader community. We used Google's Exacycle cloud-computing platform to simulate two milliseconds of dynamics of a major drug target, the G-protein-coupled receptor β2AR. Markov state models aggregate independent simulations into a single statistical model that is validated by previous computational and experimental results. Moreover, our models provide an atomistic description of the activation of a G-protein-coupled receptor and reveal multiple activation pathways. Agonists and inverse agonists interact differentially with these pathways, with profound implications for drug design.

A Novel Analysis Of The Connection Between Indian Monsoon Rainfall And Solar Activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharyya, S.; Narasimha, R.

2005-12-01

The existence of possible correlations between the solar cycle period as extracted from the yearly means of sunspot numbers and any periodicities that may be present in the Indian monsoon rainfall has been addressed using wavelet analysis. The wavelet transform coefficient maps of sunspot-number time series and those of the homogeneous Indian monsoon rainfall annual time series data reveal striking similarities, especially around the 11-year period. A novel method to analyse and quantify this similarity devising statistical schemes is suggested in this paper. The wavelet transform coefficient maxima at the 11-year period for the sunspot numbers and the monsoon rainfall have each been modelled as a point process in time and a statistical scheme for identifying a trend or dependence between the two processes has been devised. A regression analysis of parameters in these processes reveals a nearly linear trend with small but systematic deviations from the regressed line. Suitable function models for these deviations have been obtained through an unconstrained error minimisation scheme. These models provide an excellent fit to the time series of the given wavelet transform coefficient maxima obtained from actual data. Statistical significance tests on these deviations suggest with 99% confidence that the deviations are sample fluctuations obtained from normal distributions. In fact our earlier studies (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., Vol. 32, No. 5) revealed that average rainfall is higher during periods of greater solar activity for all cases, at confidence levels varying from 75% to 99%, being 95% or greater in 3 out of 7 of them. Analysis using standard wavelet techniques reveals higher power in the 8--16 y band during the higher solar activity period, in 6 of the 7 rainfall time series, at confidence levels exceeding 99.99%. Furthermore, a comparison between the wavelet cross spectra of solar activity with rainfall and noise (including those simulating the rainfall spectrum and probability distribution) revealed that over the two test-periods respectively of high and low solar activity, the average cross power of the solar activity index with rainfall exceeds that with the noise at z-test confidence levels exceeding 99.99% over period-bands covering the 11.6 y sunspot cycle (see, Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, SORCE 2005 14-16th September, at Durango, Colorado USA). These results provide strong evidence for connections between Indian rainfall and solar activity. The present study reveals in addition the presence of subharmonics of the solar cycle period in the monsoon rainfall time series together with information on their phase relationships.

Characterizing and Addressing the Need for Statistical Adjustment of Global Climate Model Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, K. D.; Baker, B.; Mueller, C.; Villarini, G.; Foley, P.; Friedman, D.

2017-12-01

As part of its mission to research and measure the effects of the changing climate, the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) regularly uses the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset. However, these data are generated at a global level and are not fine-tuned for specific watersheds. This often causes CMIP5 output to vary from locally observed patterns in the climate. Several downscaling methods have been developed to increase the resolution of the CMIP5 data and decrease systemic differences to support decision-makers as they evaluate results at the watershed scale. Evaluating preliminary comparisons of observed and projected flow frequency curves over the US revealed a simple framework for water resources decision makers to plan and design water resources management measures under changing conditions using standard tools. Using this framework as a basis, USACE has begun to explore to use of statistical adjustment to alter global climate model data to better match the locally observed patterns while preserving the general structure and behavior of the model data. When paired with careful measurement and hypothesis testing, statistical adjustment can be particularly effective at navigating the compromise between the locally observed patterns and the global climate model structures for decision makers.

Stochastic Individual-Based Modeling of Bacterial Growth and Division Using Flow Cytometry.

PubMed

García, Míriam R; Vázquez, José A; Teixeira, Isabel G; Alonso, Antonio A

2017-01-01

A realistic description of the variability in bacterial growth and division is critical to produce reliable predictions of safety risks along the food chain. Individual-based modeling of bacteria provides the theoretical framework to deal with this variability, but it requires information about the individual behavior of bacteria inside populations. In this work, we overcome this problem by estimating the individual behavior of bacteria from population statistics obtained with flow cytometry. For this objective, a stochastic individual-based modeling framework is defined based on standard assumptions during division and exponential growth. The unknown single-cell parameters required for running the individual-based modeling simulations, such as cell size growth rate, are estimated from the flow cytometry data. Instead of using directly the individual-based model, we make use of a modified Fokker-Plank equation. This only equation simulates the population statistics in function of the unknown single-cell parameters. We test the validity of the approach by modeling the growth and division of Pediococcus acidilactici within the exponential phase. Estimations reveal the statistics of cell growth and division using only data from flow cytometry at a given time. From the relationship between the mother and daughter volumes, we also predict that P. acidilactici divide into two successive parallel planes.

Nakagami-based total variation method for speckle reduction in thyroid ultrasound images.

PubMed

Koundal, Deepika; Gupta, Savita; Singh, Sukhwinder

2016-02-01

A good statistical model is necessary for the reduction in speckle noise. The Nakagami model is more general than the Rayleigh distribution for statistical modeling of speckle in ultrasound images. In this article, the Nakagami-based noise removal method is presented to enhance thyroid ultrasound images and to improve clinical diagnosis. The statistics of log-compressed image are derived from the Nakagami distribution following a maximum a posteriori estimation framework. The minimization problem is solved by optimizing an augmented Lagrange and Chambolle's projection method. The proposed method is evaluated on both artificial speckle-simulated and real ultrasound images. The experimental findings reveal the superiority of the proposed method both quantitatively and qualitatively in comparison with other speckle reduction methods reported in the literature. The proposed method yields an average signal-to-noise ratio gain of more than 2.16 dB over the non-convex regularizer-based speckle noise removal method, 3.83 dB over the Aubert-Aujol model, 1.71 dB over the Shi-Osher model and 3.21 dB over the Rudin-Lions-Osher model on speckle-simulated synthetic images. Furthermore, visual evaluation of the despeckled images shows that the proposed method suppresses speckle noise well while preserving the textures and fine details. © IMechE 2015.

Methods to Approach Velocity Data Reduction and Their Effects on Conformation Statistics in Viscoelastic Turbulent Channel Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samanta, Gaurab; Beris, Antony; Handler, Robert; Housiadas, Kostas

2009-03-01

Karhunen-Loeve (KL) analysis of DNS data of viscoelastic turbulent channel flows helps us to reveal more information on the time-dependent dynamics of viscoelastic modification of turbulence [Samanta et. al., J. Turbulence (in press), 2008]. A selected set of KL modes can be used for a data reduction modeling of these flows. However, it is pertinent that verification be done against established DNS results. For this purpose, we did comparisons of velocity and conformations statistics and probability density functions (PDFs) of relevant quantities obtained from DNS and reconstructed fields using selected KL modes and time-dependent coefficients. While the velocity statistics show good agreement between results from DNS and KL reconstructions even with just hundreds of KL modes, tens of thousands of KL modes are required to adequately capture the trace of polymer conformation resulting from DNS. New modifications to KL method have therefore been attempted to account for the differences in conformation statistics. The applicability and impact of these new modified KL methods will be discussed in the perspective of data reduction modeling.

Statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in porous crystals with dynamic moieties

PubMed Central

Braun, Efrem; Carraro, Carlo; Smit, Berend

2017-01-01

Some nanoporous, crystalline materials possess dynamic constituents, for example, rotatable moieties. These moieties can undergo a conformation change in response to the adsorption of guest molecules, which qualitatively impacts adsorption behavior. We pose and solve a statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in a porous crystal whose cages share a common ligand that can adopt two distinct rotational conformations. Guest molecules incentivize the ligands to adopt a different rotational configuration than maintained in the empty host. Our model captures inflections, steps, and hysteresis that can arise in the adsorption isotherm as a signature of the rotating ligands. The insights disclosed by our simple model contribute a more intimate understanding of the response and consequence of rotating ligands integrated into porous materials to harness them for gas storage and separations, chemical sensing, drug delivery, catalysis, and nanoscale devices. Particularly, our model reveals design strategies to exploit these moving constituents and engineer improved adsorbents with intrinsic thermal management for pressure-swing adsorption processes. PMID:28049851

Statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in porous crystals with dynamic moieties.

PubMed

Simon, Cory M; Braun, Efrem; Carraro, Carlo; Smit, Berend

2017-01-17

Some nanoporous, crystalline materials possess dynamic constituents, for example, rotatable moieties. These moieties can undergo a conformation change in response to the adsorption of guest molecules, which qualitatively impacts adsorption behavior. We pose and solve a statistical mechanical model of gas adsorption in a porous crystal whose cages share a common ligand that can adopt two distinct rotational conformations. Guest molecules incentivize the ligands to adopt a different rotational configuration than maintained in the empty host. Our model captures inflections, steps, and hysteresis that can arise in the adsorption isotherm as a signature of the rotating ligands. The insights disclosed by our simple model contribute a more intimate understanding of the response and consequence of rotating ligands integrated into porous materials to harness them for gas storage and separations, chemical sensing, drug delivery, catalysis, and nanoscale devices. Particularly, our model reveals design strategies to exploit these moving constituents and engineer improved adsorbents with intrinsic thermal management for pressure-swing adsorption processes.

Stationary moments, diffusion limits, and extinction times for logistic growth with random catastrophes.

PubMed

Schlomann, Brandon H

2018-06-06

A central problem in population ecology is understanding the consequences of stochastic fluctuations. Analytically tractable models with Gaussian driving noise have led to important, general insights, but they fail to capture rare, catastrophic events, which are increasingly observed at scales ranging from global fisheries to intestinal microbiota. Due to mathematical challenges, growth processes with random catastrophes are less well characterized and it remains unclear how their consequences differ from those of Gaussian processes. In the face of a changing climate and predicted increases in ecological catastrophes, as well as increased interest in harnessing microbes for therapeutics, these processes have never been more relevant. To better understand them, I revisit here a differential equation model of logistic growth coupled to density-independent catastrophes that arrive as a Poisson process, and derive new analytic results that reveal its statistical structure. First, I derive exact expressions for the model's stationary moments, revealing a single effective catastrophe parameter that largely controls low order statistics. Then, I use weak convergence theorems to construct its Gaussian analog in a limit of frequent, small catastrophes, keeping the stationary population mean constant for normalization. Numerically computing statistics along this limit shows how they transform as the dynamics shifts from catastrophes to diffusions, enabling quantitative comparisons. For example, the mean time to extinction increases monotonically by orders of magnitude, demonstrating significantly higher extinction risk under catastrophes than under diffusions. Together, these results provide insight into a wide range of stochastic dynamical systems important for ecology and conservation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Thomas–Fermi quark model: Non-relativistic aspects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Quan, E-mail: quan_liu@baylor.edu; Wilcox, Walter, E-mail: walter_wilcox@baylor.edu

The first numerical investigation of non-relativistic aspects of the Thomas–Fermi (TF) statistical multi-quark model is given. We begin with a review of the traditional TF model without an explicit spin interaction and find that the spin splittings are too small in this approach. An explicit spin interaction is then introduced which entails the definition of a generalized spin “flavor”. We investigate baryonic states in this approach which can be described with two inequivalent wave functions; such states can however apply to multiple degenerate flavors. We find that the model requires a spatial separation of quark flavors, even if completely degenerate.more » Although the TF model is designed to investigate the possibility of many-quark states, we find surprisingly that it may be used to fit the low energy spectrum of almost all ground state octet and decuplet baryons. The charge radii of such states are determined and compared with lattice calculations and other models. The low energy fit obtained allows us to extrapolate to the six-quark doubly strange H-dibaryon state, flavor symmetric strange states of higher quark content and possible six quark nucleon–nucleon resonances. The emphasis here is on the systematics revealed in this approach. We view our model as a versatile and convenient tool for quickly assessing the characteristics of new, possibly bound, particle states of higher quark number content. -- Highlights: • First application of the statistical Thomas–Fermi quark model to baryonic systems. • Novel aspects: spin as generalized flavor; spatial separation of quark flavor phases. • The model is statistical, but the low energy baryonic spectrum is successfully fit. • Numerical applications include the H-dibaryon, strange states and nucleon resonances. • The statistical point of view does not encourage the idea of bound many-quark baryons.« less

Origin of Pareto-like spatial distributions in ecosystems.

PubMed

Manor, Alon; Shnerb, Nadav M

2008-12-31

Recent studies of cluster distribution in various ecosystems revealed Pareto statistics for the size of spatial colonies. These results were supported by cellular automata simulations that yield robust criticality for endogenous pattern formation based on positive feedback. We show that this patch statistics is a manifestation of the law of proportionate effect. Mapping the stochastic model to a Markov birth-death process, the transition rates are shown to scale linearly with cluster size. This mapping provides a connection between patch statistics and the dynamics of the ecosystem; the "first passage time" for different colonies emerges as a powerful tool that discriminates between endogenous and exogenous clustering mechanisms. Imminent catastrophic shifts (such as desertification) manifest themselves in a drastic change of the stability properties of spatial colonies.

Deriving inertial wave characteristics from surface drifter velocities: Frequency variability in the Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poulain, Pierre-Marie; Luther, Douglas S.; Patzert, William C.

1992-11-01

Two techniques have been developed for estimating statistics of inertial oscillations from satellite-tracked drifters. These techniques overcome the difficulties inherent in estimating such statistics from data dependent upon space coordinates that are a function of time. Application of these techniques to tropical surface drifter data collected during the NORPAX, EPOCS, and TOGA programs reveals a latitude-dependent, statistically significant "blue shift" of inertial wave frequency. The latitudinal dependence of the blue shift is similar to predictions based on "global" internal wave spectral models, with a superposition of frequency shifting due to modification of the effective local inertial frequency by the presence of strongly sheared zonal mean currents within 12° of the equator.

Biomembrane Permeabilization: Statistics of Individual Leakage Events Harmonize the Interpretation of Vesicle Leakage.

PubMed

Braun, Stefan; Pokorná, Šárka; Šachl, Radek; Hof, Martin; Heerklotz, Heiko; Hoernke, Maria

2018-01-23

The mode of action of membrane-active molecules, such as antimicrobial, anticancer, cell penetrating, and fusion peptides and their synthetic mimics, transfection agents, drug permeation enhancers, and biological signaling molecules (e.g., quorum sensing), involves either the general or local destabilization of the target membrane or the formation of defined, rather stable pores. Some effects aim at killing the cell, while others need to be limited in space and time to avoid serious damage. Biological tests reveal translocation of compounds and cell death but do not provide a detailed, mechanistic, and quantitative understanding of the modes of action and their molecular basis. Model membrane studies of membrane leakage have been used for decades to tackle this issue, but their interpretation in terms of biology has remained challenging and often quite limited. Here we compare two recent, powerful protocols to study model membrane leakage: the microscopic detection of dye influx into giant liposomes and time-correlated single photon counting experiments to characterize dye efflux from large unilamellar vesicles. A statistical treatment of both data sets does not only harmonize apparent discrepancies but also makes us aware of principal issues that have been confusing the interpretation of model membrane leakage data so far. Moreover, our study reveals a fundamental difference between nano- and microscale systems that needs to be taken into account when conclusions about microscale objects, such as cells, are drawn from nanoscale models.

Modelling gene expression profiles related to prostate tumor progression using binary states

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Cancer is a complex disease commonly characterized by the disrupted activity of several cancer-related genes such as oncogenes and tumor-suppressor genes. Previous studies suggest that the process of tumor progression to malignancy is dynamic and can be traced by changes in gene expression. Despite the enormous efforts made for differential expression detection and biomarker discovery, few methods have been designed to model the gene expression level to tumor stage during malignancy progression. Such models could help us understand the dynamics and simplify or reveal the complexity of tumor progression. Methods We have modeled an on-off state of gene activation per sample then per stage to select gene expression profiles associated to tumor progression. The selection is guided by statistical significance of profiles based on random permutated datasets. Results We show that our method identifies expected profiles corresponding to oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes in a prostate tumor progression dataset. Comparisons with other methods support our findings and indicate that a considerable proportion of significant profiles is not found by other statistical tests commonly used to detect differential expression between tumor stages nor found by other tailored methods. Ontology and pathway analysis concurred with these findings. Conclusions Results suggest that our methodology may be a valuable tool to study tumor malignancy progression, which might reveal novel cancer therapies. PMID:23721350

Mixed Effects Models for Resampled Network Statistics Improves Statistical Power to Find Differences in Multi-Subject Functional Connectivity

PubMed Central

Narayan, Manjari; Allen, Genevera I.

2016-01-01

Many complex brain disorders, such as autism spectrum disorders, exhibit a wide range of symptoms and disability. To understand how brain communication is impaired in such conditions, functional connectivity studies seek to understand individual differences in brain network structure in terms of covariates that measure symptom severity. In practice, however, functional connectivity is not observed but estimated from complex and noisy neural activity measurements. Imperfect subject network estimates can compromise subsequent efforts to detect covariate effects on network structure. We address this problem in the case of Gaussian graphical models of functional connectivity, by proposing novel two-level models that treat both subject level networks and population level covariate effects as unknown parameters. To account for imperfectly estimated subject level networks when fitting these models, we propose two related approaches—R2 based on resampling and random effects test statistics, and R3 that additionally employs random adaptive penalization. Simulation studies using realistic graph structures reveal that R2 and R3 have superior statistical power to detect covariate effects compared to existing approaches, particularly when the number of within subject observations is comparable to the size of subject networks. Using our novel models and methods to study parts of the ABIDE dataset, we find evidence of hypoconnectivity associated with symptom severity in autism spectrum disorders, in frontoparietal and limbic systems as well as in anterior and posterior cingulate cortices. PMID:27147940

Text-Based Recall and Extra-Textual Generations Resulting from Simplified and Authentic Texts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crossley, Scott A.; McNamara, Danielle S.

2016-01-01

This study uses a moving windows self-paced reading task to assess text comprehension of beginning and intermediate-level simplified texts and authentic texts by L2 learners engaged in a text-retelling task. Linear mixed effects (LME) models revealed statistically significant main effects for reading proficiency and text level on the number of…

Use of dichotomous choice nonmarket methods to value the whooping crane resource

Treesearch

J. Michael Bowker; John R. Stoll

1985-01-01

A dichotomous choice form of contingent valuation is applied to quantify individuals' economic surplus associated with preservation of the whooping crane resource. Specific issues and limitations of the empirical approach are discussed. The results of this case study reveal that models with similar statistical fits can lead to very disparate measures of economic...

How to Use Value-Added Analysis to Improve Student Learning: A Field Guide for School and District Leaders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Kate; Peters, Mary; Thomas, Mike

2012-01-01

Value-added analysis is the most robust, statistically significant method available for helping educators quantify student progress over time. This powerful tool also reveals tangible strategies for improving instruction. Built around the work of Battelle for Kids, this book provides a field-tested continuous improvement model for using…

Performance comparison of LUR and OK in PM2.5 concentration mapping: a multidimensional perspective

PubMed Central

Zou, Bin; Luo, Yanqing; Wan, Neng; Zheng, Zhong; Sternberg, Troy; Liao, Yilan

2015-01-01

Methods of Land Use Regression (LUR) modeling and Ordinary Kriging (OK) interpolation have been widely used to offset the shortcomings of PM2.5 data observed at sparse monitoring sites. However, traditional point-based performance evaluation strategy for these methods remains stagnant, which could cause unreasonable mapping results. To address this challenge, this study employs ‘information entropy’, an area-based statistic, along with traditional point-based statistics (e.g. error rate, RMSE) to evaluate the performance of LUR model and OK interpolation in mapping PM2.5 concentrations in Houston from a multidimensional perspective. The point-based validation reveals significant differences between LUR and OK at different test sites despite the similar end-result accuracy (e.g. error rate 6.13% vs. 7.01%). Meanwhile, the area-based validation demonstrates that the PM2.5 concentrations simulated by the LUR model exhibits more detailed variations than those interpolated by the OK method (i.e. information entropy, 7.79 vs. 3.63). Results suggest that LUR modeling could better refine the spatial distribution scenario of PM2.5 concentrations compared to OK interpolation. The significance of this study primarily lies in promoting the integration of point- and area-based statistics for model performance evaluation in air pollution mapping. PMID:25731103

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework.

PubMed

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-06-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Resolving the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise: a hierarchical modelling framework†

PubMed Central

Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Bamber, Jonathan; Schön, Nana

2014-01-01

Determining the Antarctic contribution to sea-level rise from observational data is a complex problem. The number of physical processes involved (such as ice dynamics and surface climate) exceeds the number of observables, some of which have very poor spatial definition. This has led, in general, to solutions that utilise strong prior assumptions or physically based deterministic models to simplify the problem. Here, we present a new approach for estimating the Antarctic contribution, which only incorporates descriptive aspects of the physically based models in the analysis and in a statistical manner. By combining physical insights with modern spatial statistical modelling techniques, we are able to provide probability distributions on all processes deemed to play a role in both the observed data and the contribution to sea-level rise. Specifically, we use stochastic partial differential equations and their relation to geostatistical fields to capture our physical understanding and employ a Gaussian Markov random field approach for efficient computation. The method, an instantiation of Bayesian hierarchical modelling, naturally incorporates uncertainty in order to reveal credible intervals on all estimated quantities. The estimated sea-level rise contribution using this approach corroborates those found using a statistically independent method. © 2013 The Authors. Environmetrics Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25505370

Statistical modeling of urban air temperature distributions under different synoptic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Christoph; Breitner, Susanne; Cyrys, Josef; Hald, Cornelius; Hartz, Uwe; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Richter, Katja; Schneider, Alexandra; Wolf, Kathrin

2015-04-01

Within urban areas air temperature may vary distinctly between different locations. These intra-urban air temperature variations partly reach magnitudes that are relevant with respect to human thermal comfort. Therefore and furthermore taking into account potential interrelations with other health related environmental factors (e.g. air quality) it is important to estimate spatial patterns of intra-urban air temperature distributions that may be incorporated into urban planning processes. In this contribution we present an approach to estimate spatial temperature distributions in the urban area of Augsburg (Germany) by means of statistical modeling. At 36 locations in the urban area of Augsburg air temperatures are measured with high temporal resolution (4 min.) since December 2012. These 36 locations represent different typical urban land use characteristics in terms of varying percentage coverages of different land cover categories (e.g. impervious, built-up, vegetated). Percentage coverages of these land cover categories have been extracted from different sources (Open Street Map, European Urban Atlas, Urban Morphological Zones) for regular grids of varying size (50, 100, 200 meter horizonal resolution) for the urban area of Augsburg. It is well known from numerous studies that land use characteristics have a distinct influence on air temperature and as well other climatic variables at a certain location. Therefore air temperatures at the 36 locations are modeled utilizing land use characteristics (percentage coverages of land cover categories) as predictor variables in Stepwise Multiple Regression models and in Random Forest based model approaches. After model evaluation via cross-validation appropriate statistical models are applied to gridded land use data to derive spatial urban air temperature distributions. Varying models are tested and applied for different seasons and times of the day and also for different synoptic conditions (e.g. clear and calm situations, cloudy and windy situations). Based on hourly air temperature data from our measurements in the urban area of Augsburg distinct temperature differences between locations with different urban land use characteristics are revealed. Under clear and calm weather conditions differences between mean hourly air temperatures reach values around 8°C. Whereas during cloudy and windy weather maximum differences in mean hourly air temperatures do not exceed 5°C. Differences appear usually slightly more pronounced in summer than in winter. First results from the application of statistical modeling approaches reveal promising skill of the models in terms of explained variances reaching up to 60% in leave-one-out cross-validation experiments. The contribution depicts the methodology of our approach and presents and discusses first results.

A cross-national analysis of how economic inequality predicts biodiversity loss.

PubMed

Holland, Tim G; Peterson, Garry D; Gonzalez, Andrew

2009-10-01

We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.

Cardinal rules: Visual orientation perception reflects knowledge of environmental statistics

PubMed Central

Girshick, Ahna R.; Landy, Michael S.; Simoncelli, Eero P.

2011-01-01

Humans are remarkably good at performing visual tasks, but experimental measurements reveal substantial biases in the perception of basic visual attributes. An appealing hypothesis is that these biases arise through a process of statistical inference, in which information from noisy measurements is fused with a probabilistic model of the environment. But such inference is optimal only if the observer’s internal model matches the environment. Here, we provide evidence that this is the case. We measured performance in an orientation-estimation task, demonstrating the well-known fact that orientation judgements are more accurate at cardinal (horizontal and vertical) orientations, along with a new observation that judgements made under conditions of uncertainty are strongly biased toward cardinal orientations. We estimate observers’ internal models for orientation and find that they match the local orientation distribution measured in photographs. We also show how a neural population could embed probabilistic information responsible for such biases. PMID:21642976

Complex patterns of abnormal heartbeats

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schulte-Frohlinde, Verena; Ashkenazy, Yosef; Goldberger, Ary L.; Ivanov, Plamen Ch; Costa, Madalena; Morley-Davies, Adrian; Stanley, H. Eugene; Glass, Leon

2002-01-01

Individuals having frequent abnormal heartbeats interspersed with normal heartbeats may be at an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. However, mechanistic understanding of such cardiac arrhythmias is limited. We present a visual and qualitative method to display statistical properties of abnormal heartbeats. We introduce dynamical "heartprints" which reveal characteristic patterns in long clinical records encompassing approximately 10(5) heartbeats and may provide information about underlying mechanisms. We test if these dynamics can be reproduced by model simulations in which abnormal heartbeats are generated (i) randomly, (ii) at a fixed time interval following a preceding normal heartbeat, or (iii) by an independent oscillator that may or may not interact with the normal heartbeat. We compare the results of these three models and test their limitations to comprehensively simulate the statistical features of selected clinical records. This work introduces methods that can be used to test mathematical models of arrhythmogenesis and to develop a new understanding of underlying electrophysiologic mechanisms of cardiac arrhythmia.

Analyzing Single-Molecule Protein Transportation Experiments via Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models

PubMed Central

Chen, Yang; Shen, Kuang

2017-01-01

To maintain proper cellular functions, over 50% of proteins encoded in the genome need to be transported to cellular membranes. The molecular mechanism behind such a process, often referred to as protein targeting, is not well understood. Single-molecule experiments are designed to unveil the detailed mechanisms and reveal the functions of different molecular machineries involved in the process. The experimental data consist of hundreds of stochastic time traces from the fluorescence recordings of the experimental system. We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model on top of hidden Markov models (HMMs) to analyze these data and use the statistical results to answer the biological questions. In addition to resolving the biological puzzles and delineating the regulating roles of different molecular complexes, our statistical results enable us to propose a more detailed mechanism for the late stages of the protein targeting process. PMID:28943680

Large Occurrence Patterns of New Zealand Deep Earthquakes: Characterization by Use of a Switching Poisson Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaochuan, Lu; Vere-Jones, David

2011-10-01

The paper studies the statistical properties of deep earthquakes around North Island, New Zealand. We first evaluate the catalogue coverage and completeness of deep events according to cusum (cumulative sum) statistics and earlier literature. The epicentral, depth, and magnitude distributions of deep earthquakes are then discussed. It is worth noting that strong grouping effects are observed in the epicentral distribution of these deep earthquakes. Also, although the spatial distribution of deep earthquakes does not change, their occurrence frequencies vary from time to time, active in one period, relatively quiescent in another. The depth distribution of deep earthquakes also hardly changes except for events with focal depth less than 100 km. On the basis of spatial concentration we partition deep earthquakes into several groups—the Taupo-Bay of Plenty group, the Taranaki group, and the Cook Strait group. Second-order moment analysis via the two-point correlation function reveals only very small-scale clustering of deep earthquakes, presumably limited to some hot spots only. We also suggest that some models usually used for shallow earthquakes fit deep earthquakes unsatisfactorily. Instead, we propose a switching Poisson model for the occurrence patterns of deep earthquakes. The goodness-of-fit test suggests that the time-varying activity is well characterized by a switching Poisson model. Furthermore, detailed analysis carried out on each deep group by use of switching Poisson models reveals similar time-varying behavior in occurrence frequencies in each group.

A phylogenetic transform enhances analysis of compositional microbiota data

PubMed Central

Silverman, Justin D; Washburne, Alex D; Mukherjee, Sayan; David, Lawrence A

2017-01-01

Surveys of microbial communities (microbiota), typically measured as relative abundance of species, have illustrated the importance of these communities in human health and disease. Yet, statistical artifacts commonly plague the analysis of relative abundance data. Here, we introduce the PhILR transform, which incorporates microbial evolutionary models with the isometric log-ratio transform to allow off-the-shelf statistical tools to be safely applied to microbiota surveys. We demonstrate that analyses of community-level structure can be applied to PhILR transformed data with performance on benchmarks rivaling or surpassing standard tools. Additionally, by decomposing distance in the PhILR transformed space, we identified neighboring clades that may have adapted to distinct human body sites. Decomposing variance revealed that covariation of bacterial clades within human body sites increases with phylogenetic relatedness. Together, these findings illustrate how the PhILR transform combines statistical and phylogenetic models to overcome compositional data challenges and enable evolutionary insights relevant to microbial communities. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21887.001 PMID:28198697

Circularly-symmetric complex normal ratio distribution for scalar transmissibility functions. Part III: Application to statistical modal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wang-Ji; Ren, Wei-Xin

2018-01-01

This study applies the theoretical findings of circularly-symmetric complex normal ratio distribution Yan and Ren (2016) [1,2] to transmissibility-based modal analysis from a statistical viewpoint. A probabilistic model of transmissibility function in the vicinity of the resonant frequency is formulated in modal domain, while some insightful comments are offered. It theoretically reveals that the statistics of transmissibility function around the resonant frequency is solely dependent on 'noise-to-signal' ratio and mode shapes. As a sequel to the development of the probabilistic model of transmissibility function in modal domain, this study poses the process of modal identification in the context of Bayesian framework by borrowing a novel paradigm. Implementation issues unique to the proposed approach are resolved by Lagrange multiplier approach. Also, this study explores the possibility of applying Bayesian analysis in distinguishing harmonic components and structural ones. The approaches are verified through simulated data and experimentally testing data. The uncertainty behavior due to variation of different factors is also discussed in detail.

Estimation of social value of statistical life using willingness-to-pay method in Nanjing, China.

PubMed

Yang, Zhao; Liu, Pan; Xu, Xin

2016-10-01

Rational decision making regarding the safety related investment programs greatly depends on the economic valuation of traffic crashes. The primary objective of this study was to estimate the social value of statistical life in the city of Nanjing in China. A stated preference survey was conducted to investigate travelers' willingness to pay for traffic risk reduction. Face-to-face interviews were conducted at stations, shopping centers, schools, and parks in different districts in the urban area of Nanjing. The respondents were categorized into two groups, including motorists and non-motorists. Both the binary logit model and mixed logit model were developed for the two groups of people. The results revealed that the mixed logit model is superior to the fixed coefficient binary logit model. The factors that significantly affect people's willingness to pay for risk reduction include income, education, gender, age, drive age (for motorists), occupation, whether the charged fees were used to improve private vehicle equipment (for motorists), reduction in fatality rate, and change in travel cost. The Monte Carlo simulation method was used to generate the distribution of value of statistical life (VSL). Based on the mixed logit model, the VSL had a mean value of 3,729,493 RMB ($586,610) with a standard deviation of 2,181,592 RMB ($343,142) for motorists; and a mean of 3,281,283 RMB ($505,318) with a standard deviation of 2,376,975 RMB ($366,054) for non-motorists. Using the tax system to illustrate the contribution of different income groups to social funds, the social value of statistical life was estimated. The average social value of statistical life was found to be 7,184,406 RMB ($1,130,032). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Colloquium: Statistical mechanics of money, wealth, and income

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yakovenko, Victor M.; Rosser, J. Barkley, Jr.

2009-10-01

This Colloquium reviews statistical models for money, wealth, and income distributions developed in the econophysics literature since the late 1990s. By analogy with the Boltzmann-Gibbs distribution of energy in physics, it is shown that the probability distribution of money is exponential for certain classes of models with interacting economic agents. Alternative scenarios are also reviewed. Data analysis of the empirical distributions of wealth and income reveals a two-class distribution. The majority of the population belongs to the lower class, characterized by the exponential (“thermal”) distribution, whereas a small fraction of the population in the upper class is characterized by the power-law (“superthermal”) distribution. The lower part is very stable, stationary in time, whereas the upper part is highly dynamical and out of equilibrium.

An investigation into the causes of stratospheric ozone loss in the southern Australasian region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lehmann, P.; Karoly, D. J.; Newmann, P. A.; Clarkson, T. S.; Matthews, W. A.

1992-07-01

Measurements of total ozone at Macquarie Island (55 deg S, 159 deg E) reveal statistically significant reductions of approximately twelve percent during July to September when comparing the mean levels for 1987-90 with those in the seventies. In order to investigate the possibility that these ozone changes may not be a result of dynamic variability of the stratosphere, a simple linear model of ozone was created from statistical analysis of tropopause height and isentropic transient eddy heat flux, which were assumed representative of the dominant dynamic influences. Comparison of measured and modeled ozone indicates that the recent downward trend in ozone at Macquarie Island is not related to stratospheric dynamic variability and therefore suggests another mechanism, possibly changes in photochemical destruction of ozone.

What Can Be Learned from Inverse Statistics?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahlgren, Peter Toke Heden; Dahl, Henrik; Jensen, Mogens Høgh; Simonsen, Ingve

One stylized fact of financial markets is an asymmetry between the most likely time to profit and to loss. This gain-loss asymmetry is revealed by inverse statistics, a method closely related to empirically finding first passage times. Many papers have presented evidence about the asymmetry, where it appears and where it does not. Also, various interpretations and explanations for the results have been suggested. In this chapter, we review the published results and explanations. We also examine the results and show that some are at best fragile. Similarly, we discuss the suggested explanations and propose a new model based on Gaussian mixtures. Apart from explaining the gain-loss asymmetry, this model also has the potential to explain other stylized facts such as volatility clustering, fat tails, and power law behavior of returns.

Bias in logistic regression due to imperfect diagnostic test results and practical correction approaches.

PubMed

Valle, Denis; Lima, Joanna M Tucker; Millar, Justin; Amratia, Punam; Haque, Ubydul

2015-11-04

Logistic regression is a statistical model widely used in cross-sectional and cohort studies to identify and quantify the effects of potential disease risk factors. However, the impact of imperfect tests on adjusted odds ratios (and thus on the identification of risk factors) is under-appreciated. The purpose of this article is to draw attention to the problem associated with modelling imperfect diagnostic tests, and propose simple Bayesian models to adequately address this issue. A systematic literature review was conducted to determine the proportion of malaria studies that appropriately accounted for false-negatives/false-positives in a logistic regression setting. Inference from the standard logistic regression was also compared with that from three proposed Bayesian models using simulations and malaria data from the western Brazilian Amazon. A systematic literature review suggests that malaria epidemiologists are largely unaware of the problem of using logistic regression to model imperfect diagnostic test results. Simulation results reveal that statistical inference can be substantially improved when using the proposed Bayesian models versus the standard logistic regression. Finally, analysis of original malaria data with one of the proposed Bayesian models reveals that microscopy sensitivity is strongly influenced by how long people have lived in the study region, and an important risk factor (i.e., participation in forest extractivism) is identified that would have been missed by standard logistic regression. Given the numerous diagnostic methods employed by malaria researchers and the ubiquitous use of logistic regression to model the results of these diagnostic tests, this paper provides critical guidelines to improve data analysis practice in the presence of misclassification error. Easy-to-use code that can be readily adapted to WinBUGS is provided, enabling straightforward implementation of the proposed Bayesian models.

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manobianco, John; Nutter, Paul

1997-01-01

The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) conducted a year-long evaluation of NCEP's 29-km mesoscale Eta (meso-eta) weather prediction model in order to identify added value to forecast operations in support of the United States space program. The evaluation was stratified over warm and cool seasons and considered both objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective verification results generally indicate that meso-eta model point forecasts at selected stations exhibit minimal error growth in terms of RMS errors and are reasonably unbiased. Conversely, results from the subjective verification demonstrate that model forecasts of developing weather events such as thunderstorms, sea breezes, and cold fronts, are not always as accurate as implied by the seasonal error statistics. Sea-breeze case studies reveal that the model generates a dynamically-consistent thermally direct circulation over the Florida peninsula, although at a larger scale than observed. Thunderstorm verification reveals that the meso-eta model is capable of predicting areas of organized convection, particularly during the late afternoon hours but is not capable of forecasting individual thunderstorms. Verification of cold fronts during the cool season reveals that the model is capable of forecasting a majority of cold frontal passages through east central Florida to within +1-h of observed frontal passage.

Data-driven modeling of background and mine-related acidity and metals in river basins

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friedel, Michael J

2013-01-01

A novel application of self-organizing map (SOM) and multivariate statistical techniques is used to model the nonlinear interaction among basin mineral-resources, mining activity, and surface-water quality. First, the SOM is trained using sparse measurements from 228 sample sites in the Animas River Basin, Colorado. The model performance is validated by comparing stochastic predictions of basin-alteration assemblages and mining activity at 104 independent sites. The SOM correctly predicts (>98%) the predominant type of basin hydrothermal alteration and presence (or absence) of mining activity. Second, application of the Davies–Bouldin criteria to k-means clustering of SOM neurons identified ten unique environmental groups. Median statistics of these groups define a nonlinear water-quality response along the spatiotemporal hydrothermal alteration-mining gradient. These results reveal that it is possible to differentiate among the continuum between inputs of background and mine-related acidity and metals, and it provides a basis for future research and empirical model development.

Management of undescended testis may be improved with educational updates and new transferring model.

PubMed

Yi, Wei; Sheng-de, Wu; Lian-Ju, Shen; Tao, Lin; Da-Wei, He; Guang-Hui, Wei

2018-05-24

To investigate whether management of undescended testis (UDT) may be improved with educational updates and new transferring model among referring providers (RPs). The age of orchidopexies performed in Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were reviewed. We then proposed educational updates and new transferring model among RPs. The age of orchidopexies performed after our intervention were collected. Data were represented graphically and statistical analysis Chi-square for trend were used. A total of 1543 orchidopexies were performed. The median age of orchidopexy did not matched the target age of 6-12 months in any subsequent year. Survey of the RPs showed that 48.85% of their recommended age was below 12 months. However, only 25.50% of them would directly make a surgical referral to pediatric surgery specifically at this point. After we proposed educational updates, tracking the age of orchidopexy revealed a statistically significant trend downward. The management of undescended testis may be improved with educational updates and new transferring model among primary healthcare practitioners.

On vital aid: the why, what and how of validation

PubMed Central

Kleywegt, Gerard J.

2009-01-01

Limitations to the data and subjectivity in the structure-determination process may cause errors in macromolecular crystal structures. Appropriate validation techniques may be used to reveal problems in structures, ideally before they are analysed, published or deposited. Additionally, such tech­niques may be used a posteriori to assess the (relative) merits of a model by potential users. Weak validation methods and statistics assess how well a model reproduces the information that was used in its construction (i.e. experimental data and prior knowledge). Strong methods and statistics, on the other hand, test how well a model predicts data or information that were not used in the structure-determination process. These may be data that were excluded from the process on purpose, general knowledge about macromolecular structure, information about the biological role and biochemical activity of the molecule under study or its mutants or complexes and predictions that are based on the model and that can be tested experimentally. PMID:19171968

A probabilistic approach to photovoltaic generator performance prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khallat, M. A.; Rahman, S.

1986-09-01

A method for predicting the performance of a photovoltaic (PV) generator based on long term climatological data and expected cell performance is described. The equations for cell model formulation are provided. Use of the statistical model for characterizing the insolation level is discussed. The insolation data is fitted to appropriate probability distribution functions (Weibull, beta, normal). The probability distribution functions are utilized to evaluate the capacity factors of PV panels or arrays. An example is presented revealing the applicability of the procedure.

An error-dependent model of instrument-scanning behavior in commercial airline pilots. Ph.D. Thesis - May 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, D. H.

1985-01-01

A new flexible model of pilot instrument scanning behavior is presented which assumes that the pilot uses a set of deterministic scanning patterns on the pilot's perception of error in the state of the aircraft, and the pilot's knowledge of the interactive nature of the aircraft's systems. Statistical analyses revealed that a three stage Markov process composed of the pilot's three predicted lookpoints (LP), occurring 1/30, 2/30, and 3/30 of a second prior to each LP, accurately modelled the scanning behavior of 14 commercial airline pilots while flying steep turn maneuvers in a Boeing 737 flight simulator. The modelled scanning data for each pilot were not statistically different from the observed scanning data in comparisons of mean dwell time, entropy, and entropy rate. These findings represent the first direct evidence that pilots are using deterministic scanning patterns during instrument flight. The results are interpreted as direct support for the error dependent model and suggestions are made for further research that could allow for identification of the specific scanning patterns suggested by the model.

Benchmarking Inverse Statistical Approaches for Protein Structure and Design with Exactly Solvable Models.

PubMed

Jacquin, Hugo; Gilson, Amy; Shakhnovich, Eugene; Cocco, Simona; Monasson, Rémi

2016-05-01

Inverse statistical approaches to determine protein structure and function from Multiple Sequence Alignments (MSA) are emerging as powerful tools in computational biology. However the underlying assumptions of the relationship between the inferred effective Potts Hamiltonian and real protein structure and energetics remain untested so far. Here we use lattice protein model (LP) to benchmark those inverse statistical approaches. We build MSA of highly stable sequences in target LP structures, and infer the effective pairwise Potts Hamiltonians from those MSA. We find that inferred Potts Hamiltonians reproduce many important aspects of 'true' LP structures and energetics. Careful analysis reveals that effective pairwise couplings in inferred Potts Hamiltonians depend not only on the energetics of the native structure but also on competing folds; in particular, the coupling values reflect both positive design (stabilization of native conformation) and negative design (destabilization of competing folds). In addition to providing detailed structural information, the inferred Potts models used as protein Hamiltonian for design of new sequences are able to generate with high probability completely new sequences with the desired folds, which is not possible using independent-site models. Those are remarkable results as the effective LP Hamiltonians used to generate MSA are not simple pairwise models due to the competition between the folds. Our findings elucidate the reasons for the success of inverse approaches to the modelling of proteins from sequence data, and their limitations.

Screening of the chemical reactivity of three different graphite sources using the formation of reductively alkylated graphene as a model reaction.

PubMed

Knirsch, Kathrin C; Englert, Jan M; Dotzer, Christoph; Hauke, Frank; Hirsch, Andreas

2013-11-28

Reductive alkylation of three graphite starting materials G(flake), G(powder), and G(spherical) reveals pronounced differences in the obtained covalently functionalized graphene with respect to the degree of functionalization, exfoliation efficiency and product homogeneity, as demonstrated by statistical Raman microscopy (SRM), TGA/MS, IR-spectroscopy and solubility behavior.

The Effect of Education on Economic Growth in Greece over the 1960-2000 Period

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tsamadias, Constantinos; Prontzas, Panagiotis

2012-01-01

This paper examines the impact of education on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000 by applying the model introduced by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil. The findings of the empirical analysis reveal that education had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000. The econometric…

Statistical variability comparison in MODIS and AERONET derived aerosol optical depth over Indo-Gangetic Plains using time series modeling.

PubMed

Soni, Kirti; Parmar, Kulwinder Singh; Kapoor, Sangeeta; Kumar, Nishant

2016-05-15

A lot of studies in the literature of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) done by using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived data, but the accuracy of satellite data in comparison to ground data derived from ARrosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET) has been always questionable. So to overcome from this situation, comparative study of a comprehensive ground based and satellite data for the period of 2001-2012 is modeled. The time series model is used for the accurate prediction of AOD and statistical variability is compared to assess the performance of the model in both cases. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), stationary R-squared, R-squared, maximum absolute percentage error (MAPE), normalized Bayesian information criterion (NBIC) and Ljung-Box methods are used to check the applicability and validity of the developed ARIMA models revealing significant precision in the model performance. It was found that, it is possible to predict the AOD by statistical modeling using time series obtained from past data of MODIS and AERONET as input data. Moreover, the result shows that MODIS data can be formed from AERONET data by adding 0.251627 ± 0.133589 and vice-versa by subtracting. From the forecast available for AODs for the next four years (2013-2017) by using the developed ARIMA model, it is concluded that the forecasted ground AOD has increased trend. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using decision trees to understand structure in missing data

PubMed Central

Tierney, Nicholas J; Harden, Fiona A; Harden, Maurice J; Mengersen, Kerrie L

2015-01-01

Objectives Demonstrate the application of decision trees—classification and regression trees (CARTs), and their cousins, boosted regression trees (BRTs)—to understand structure in missing data. Setting Data taken from employees at 3 different industrial sites in Australia. Participants 7915 observations were included. Materials and methods The approach was evaluated using an occupational health data set comprising results of questionnaires, medical tests and environmental monitoring. Statistical methods included standard statistical tests and the ‘rpart’ and ‘gbm’ packages for CART and BRT analyses, respectively, from the statistical software ‘R’. A simulation study was conducted to explore the capability of decision tree models in describing data with missingness artificially introduced. Results CART and BRT models were effective in highlighting a missingness structure in the data, related to the type of data (medical or environmental), the site in which it was collected, the number of visits, and the presence of extreme values. The simulation study revealed that CART models were able to identify variables and values responsible for inducing missingness. There was greater variation in variable importance for unstructured as compared to structured missingness. Discussion Both CART and BRT models were effective in describing structural missingness in data. CART models may be preferred over BRT models for exploratory analysis of missing data, and selecting variables important for predicting missingness. BRT models can show how values of other variables influence missingness, which may prove useful for researchers. Conclusions Researchers are encouraged to use CART and BRT models to explore and understand missing data. PMID:26124509

Phylogeography Takes a Relaxed Random Walk in Continuous Space and Time

PubMed Central

Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew; Welch, John J.; Suchard, Marc A.

2010-01-01

Research aimed at understanding the geographic context of evolutionary histories is burgeoning across biological disciplines. Recent endeavors attempt to interpret contemporaneous genetic variation in the light of increasingly detailed geographical and environmental observations. Such interest has promoted the development of phylogeographic inference techniques that explicitly aim to integrate such heterogeneous data. One promising development involves reconstructing phylogeographic history on a continuous landscape. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical approach to infer continuous phylogeographic diffusion using random walk models while simultaneously reconstructing the evolutionary history in time from molecular sequence data. Moreover, by accommodating branch-specific variation in dispersal rates, we relax the most restrictive assumption of the standard Brownian diffusion process and demonstrate increased statistical efficiency in spatial reconstructions of overdispersed random walks by analyzing both simulated and real viral genetic data. We further illustrate how drawing inference about summary statistics from a fully specified stochastic process over both sequence evolution and spatial movement reveals important characteristics of a rabies epidemic. Together with recent advances in discrete phylogeographic inference, the continuous model developments furnish a flexible statistical framework for biogeographical reconstructions that is easily expanded upon to accommodate various landscape genetic features. PMID:20203288

A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

2014-11-01

A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

Testing alternative ground water models using cross-validation and other methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Foglia, L.; Mehl, S.W.; Hill, M.C.; Perona, P.; Burlando, P.

2007-01-01

Many methods can be used to test alternative ground water models. Of concern in this work are methods able to (1) rank alternative models (also called model discrimination) and (2) identify observations important to parameter estimates and predictions (equivalent to the purpose served by some types of sensitivity analysis). Some of the measures investigated are computationally efficient; others are computationally demanding. The latter are generally needed to account for model nonlinearity. The efficient model discrimination methods investigated include the information criteria: the corrected Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criterion, and generalized cross-validation. The efficient sensitivity analysis measures used are dimensionless scaled sensitivity (DSS), composite scaled sensitivity, and parameter correlation coefficient (PCC); the other statistics are DFBETAS, Cook's D, and observation-prediction statistic. Acronyms are explained in the introduction. Cross-validation (CV) is a computationally intensive nonlinear method that is used for both model discrimination and sensitivity analysis. The methods are tested using up to five alternative parsimoniously constructed models of the ground water system of the Maggia Valley in southern Switzerland. The alternative models differ in their representation of hydraulic conductivity. A new method for graphically representing CV and sensitivity analysis results for complex models is presented and used to evaluate the utility of the efficient statistics. The results indicate that for model selection, the information criteria produce similar results at much smaller computational cost than CV. For identifying important observations, the only obviously inferior linear measure is DSS; the poor performance was expected because DSS does not include the effects of parameter correlation and PCC reveals large parameter correlations. ?? 2007 National Ground Water Association.

Statistical modelling of gaze behaviour as categorical time series: what you should watch to save soccer penalties.

PubMed

Button, C; Dicks, M; Haines, R; Barker, R; Davids, K

2011-08-01

Previous research on gaze behaviour in sport has typically reported summary fixation statistics thereby largely ignoring the temporal sequencing of gaze. In the present study on penalty kicking in soccer, our aim was to apply a Markov chain modelling method to eye movement data obtained from goalkeepers. Building on the discrete analysis of gaze employed by Dicks et al. (Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):706-720, 2010b), we wanted to statistically model the relative probabilities of the goalkeeper's gaze being directed to different locations throughout the penalty taker's approach (Dicks et al. in Atten Percept Psychophys 72(3):706-720, 2010b). Examination of gaze behaviours under in situ and video-simulation task constraints reveals differences in information pickup for perception and action (Attention, Perception and Psychophysics 72(3), 706-720). The probabilities of fixating anatomical locations of the penalty taker were high under simulated movement response conditions. In contrast, when actually required to intercept kicks, the goalkeepers initially favoured watching the penalty taker's head but then rapidly shifted focus directly to the ball for approximately the final second prior to foot-ball contact. The increased spatio-temporal demands of in situ interceptive actions over laboratory-based simulated actions lead to different visual search strategies being used. When eye movement data are modelled as time series, it is possible to discern subtle but important behavioural characteristics that are less apparent with discrete summary statistics alone.

Estimation of Mesoscale Atmospheric Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM Rain Statistics Utilizing a Simple One-Dimensional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iacovazzi, Robert A., Jr.; Prabhakara, C.

2002-01-01

In this study, a model is developed to estimate mesoscale-resolution atmospheric latent heating (ALH) profiles. It utilizes rain statistics deduced from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, and cloud vertical velocity profiles and regional surface thermodynamic climatologies derived from other available data sources. From several rain events observed over tropical ocean and land, ALH profiles retrieved by this model in convective rain regions reveal strong warming throughout most of the troposphere, while in stratiform rain regions they usually show slight cooling below the freezing level and significant warming above. The mesoscale-average, or total, ALH profiles reveal a dominant stratiform character, because stratiform rain areas are usually much larger than convective rain areas. Sensitivity tests of the model show that total ALH at a given tropospheric level varies by less than +/- 10 % when convective and stratiform rain rates and mesoscale fractional rain areas are perturbed individually by +/- 15 %. This is also found when the non-uniform convective vertical velocity profiles are replaced by one that is uniform. Larger variability of the total ALH profiles arises when climatological ocean- and land-surface temperatures (water vapor mixing ratios) are independently perturbed by +/- 1.0 K (+/- 5%) and +/- 5.0 K (+/- 15%), respectively. At a given tropospheric level, such perturbations can cause a +/- 25% variation of total ALH over ocean, and a factor-of-two sensitivity over land. This sensitivity is reduced substantially if perturbations of surface thermodynamic variables do not change surface relative humidity, or are not extended throughout the entire model evaporation layer. The ALH profiles retrieved in this study agree qualitatively with tropical total diabatic heating profiles deduced in earlier studies. Also, from January and July 1999 ALH-profile climatologies generated separately with TRMM Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar rain statistics, it is shown that ALH profiles can be retrieved utilizing diverse satellite-derived rain products that offer convective and stratiform discrimination. Therefore, the ALH retrieval model developed in this study can be used to make regional estimates of total diabatic heating profiles in the future Global Precipitation Measurement mission, and to assimilate these profiles into numerical weather forecast and climate models.

Estimation of Mesoscale Atmospheric Latent Heating Profiles from TRMM Rain Statistics Utilizing a Simple One-Dimensional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iacovazzi, Robert A., Jr.; Prabhakara, C.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

In this study, a model is developed to estimate mesoscale-resolution atmospheric latent heating (ALH) profiles. It utilizes rain statistics deduced from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data, and cloud vertical velocity profiles and regional surface thermodynamic climatologies derived from other available data sources. From several rain events observed over tropical ocean and land, ALH profiles retrieved by this model in convective rain regions reveal strong warming throughout most of the troposphere, while in stratiform rain regions they usually show slight cooling below the freezing level and significant warming above. The mesoscale-average, or total, ALH profiles reveal a dominant stratiform character, because stratiform rain areas are usually much larger than convective rain areas. Sensitivity tests of the model show that total ALH at a given tropospheric level varies by less than +/- 10 % when convective and stratiform rain rates and mesoscale fractional rain areas are perturbed individually by 1 15 %. This is also found when the non-uniform convective vertical velocity profiles are replaced by one that is uniform. Larger variability of the total ALH profiles arises when climatological ocean- and land-surface temperatures (water vapor mixing ratios) are independently perturbed by +/- 1.0 K (+/- 5 %) and +/- 5.0 K (+/- 15 %), respectively. At a given tropospheric level, such perturbations can cause a +/- 25 % variation of total ALH over ocean, and a factor-of-two sensitivity over land. This sensitivity is reduced substantially if perturbations of surface thermodynamic variables do not change surface relative humidity, or are not extended throughout the entire model evaporation layer. The ALH profiles retrieved in this study agree qualitatively with tropical total diabatic heating profiles deduced in earlier studies. Also, from January and July 1999 ALH-profile climatologies generated separately with TRMM Microwave Imager and Precipitation Radar rain statistics, it is shown that ALH profiles can be retrieved utilizing diverse satellite-derived rain products that offer convective and stratiform discrimination. Therefore, the ALH retrieval model developed in this study can be used to make regional estimates of total diabatic heating profiles in the future Global Precipitation Measurement mission, and to assimilate these profiles into numerical weather forecast and climate models.

Radiosonde and satellite observations of topographic flow off the Norwegian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugaard Furevik, Birgitte; Dagestad, Knut-Frode; Olafsson, Haraldur

2015-04-01

Winds in Norway are strongly affected by the complex topography and in some areas the average wind speed in the fjords may exceed those on the coast. Such effects are revealed through a statistical analysis derived wind speed from ~8500 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) scenes covering the Norwegian coast. We have compared the results with modelled winds from the operational atmosphere model at MET (horizontal grid spacing of 2.5km) and 3 years of measurements from "M/S Trollfjord", a ferry traversing a 2400km coastal route between the cities Bergen and Kirkenes. The analysis reveals many coastal details of the wind field not observed from the meteorological station network of Norway. The data set proves useful for verification of offshore winds in the model. High temporal resolution radiosonde winds from two locations are used to analyse the topographic effects.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management.

PubMed

Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world's most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004-2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper.

High-resolution modeling of thermal thresholds and environmental influences on coral bleaching for local and regional reef management

PubMed Central

Yamano, Hiroya

2018-01-01

Coral reefs are one of the world’s most threatened ecosystems, with global and local stressors contributing to their decline. Excessive sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) can cause coral bleaching, resulting in coral death and decreases in coral cover. A SST threshold of 1 °C over the climatological maximum is widely used to predict coral bleaching. In this study, we refined thermal indices predicting coral bleaching at high-spatial resolution (1 km) by statistically optimizing thermal thresholds, as well as considering other environmental influences on bleaching such as ultraviolet (UV) radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects. We used a coral bleaching dataset derived from the web-based monitoring system Sango Map Project, at scales appropriate for the local and regional conservation of Japanese coral reefs. We recorded coral bleaching events in the years 2004–2016 in Japan. We revealed the influence of multiple factors on the ability to predict coral bleaching, including selection of thermal indices, statistical optimization of thermal thresholds, quantification of multiple environmental influences, and use of multiple modeling methods (generalized linear models and random forests). After optimization, differences in predictive ability among thermal indices were negligible. Thermal index, UV radiation, water turbidity, and cooling effects were important predictors of the occurrence of coral bleaching. Predictions based on the best model revealed that coral reefs in Japan have experienced recent and widespread bleaching. A practical method to reduce bleaching frequency by screening UV radiation was also demonstrated in this paper. PMID:29473007

Evolving Scale-Free Networks by Poisson Process: Modeling and Degree Distribution.

PubMed

Feng, Minyu; Qu, Hong; Yi, Zhang; Xie, Xiurui; Kurths, Jurgen

2016-05-01

Since the great mathematician Leonhard Euler initiated the study of graph theory, the network has been one of the most significant research subject in multidisciplinary. In recent years, the proposition of the small-world and scale-free properties of complex networks in statistical physics made the network science intriguing again for many researchers. One of the challenges of the network science is to propose rational models for complex networks. In this paper, in order to reveal the influence of the vertex generating mechanism of complex networks, we propose three novel models based on the homogeneous Poisson, nonhomogeneous Poisson and birth death process, respectively, which can be regarded as typical scale-free networks and utilized to simulate practical networks. The degree distribution and exponent are analyzed and explained in mathematics by different approaches. In the simulation, we display the modeling process, the degree distribution of empirical data by statistical methods, and reliability of proposed networks, results show our models follow the features of typical complex networks. Finally, some future challenges for complex systems are discussed.

Oscillating in synchrony with a metronome: serial dependence, limit cycle dynamics, and modeling.

PubMed

Torre, Kjerstin; Balasubramaniam, Ramesh; Delignières, Didier

2010-07-01

We analyzed serial dependencies in periods and asynchronies collected during oscillations performed in synchrony with a metronome. Results showed that asynchronies contain 1/f fluctuations, and the series of periods contain antipersistent dependence. The analysis of the phase portrait revealed a specific asymmetry induced by synchronization. We propose a hybrid limit cycle model including a cycle-dependent stiffness parameter provided with fractal properties, and a parametric driving function based on velocity. This model accounts for most experimentally evidenced statistical features, including serial dependence and limit cycle dynamics. We discuss the results and modeling choices within the framework of event-based and emergent timing.

Revealing physical interaction networks from statistics of collective dynamics

PubMed Central

Nitzan, Mor; Casadiego, Jose; Timme, Marc

2017-01-01

Revealing physical interactions in complex systems from observed collective dynamics constitutes a fundamental inverse problem in science. Current reconstruction methods require access to a system’s model or dynamical data at a level of detail often not available. We exploit changes in invariant measures, in particular distributions of sampled states of the system in response to driving signals, and use compressed sensing to reveal physical interaction networks. Dynamical observations following driving suffice to infer physical connectivity even if they are temporally disordered, are acquired at large sampling intervals, and stem from different experiments. Testing various nonlinear dynamic processes emerging on artificial and real network topologies indicates high reconstruction quality for existence as well as type of interactions. These results advance our ability to reveal physical interaction networks in complex synthetic and natural systems. PMID:28246630

Modelling average maximum daily temperature using r largest order statistics: An application to South African data

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Natural hazards (events that may cause actual disasters) are established in the literature as major causes of various massive and destructive problems worldwide. The occurrences of earthquakes, floods and heat waves affect millions of people through several impacts. These include cases of hospitalisation, loss of lives and economic challenges. The focus of this study was on the risk reduction of the disasters that occur because of extremely high temperatures and heat waves. Modelling average maximum daily temperature (AMDT) guards against the disaster risk and may also help countries towards preparing for extreme heat. This study discusses the use of the r largest order statistics approach of extreme value theory towards modelling AMDT over the period of 11 years, that is, 2000–2010. A generalised extreme value distribution for r largest order statistics is fitted to the annual maxima. This is performed in an effort to study the behaviour of the r largest order statistics. The method of maximum likelihood is used in estimating the target parameters and the frequency of occurrences of the hottest days is assessed. The study presents a case study of South Africa in which the data for the non-winter season (September–April of each year) are used. The meteorological data used are the AMDT that are collected by the South African Weather Service and provided by Eskom. The estimation of the shape parameter reveals evidence of a Weibull class as an appropriate distribution for modelling AMDT in South Africa. The extreme quantiles for specified return periods are estimated using the quantile function and the best model is chosen through the use of the deviance statistic with the support of the graphical diagnostic tools. The Entropy Difference Test (EDT) is used as a specification test for diagnosing the fit of the models to the data.

Estimation of Mouse Organ Locations Through Registration of a Statistical Mouse Atlas With Micro-CT Images

PubMed Central

Stout, David B.; Chatziioannou, Arion F.

2012-01-01

Micro-CT is widely used in preclinical studies of small animals. Due to the low soft-tissue contrast in typical studies, segmentation of soft tissue organs from noncontrast enhanced micro-CT images is a challenging problem. Here, we propose an atlas-based approach for estimating the major organs in mouse micro-CT images. A statistical atlas of major trunk organs was constructed based on 45 training subjects. The statistical shape model technique was used to include inter-subject anatomical variations. The shape correlations between different organs were described using a conditional Gaussian model. For registration, first the high-contrast organs in micro-CT images were registered by fitting the statistical shape model, while the low-contrast organs were subsequently estimated from the high-contrast organs using the conditional Gaussian model. The registration accuracy was validated based on 23 noncontrast-enhanced and 45 contrast-enhanced micro-CT images. Three different accuracy metrics (Dice coefficient, organ volume recovery coefficient, and surface distance) were used for evaluation. The Dice coefficients vary from 0.45 ± 0.18 for the spleen to 0.90 ± 0.02 for the lungs, the volume recovery coefficients vary from for the liver to 1.30 ± 0.75 for the spleen, the surface distances vary from 0.18 ± 0.01 mm for the lungs to 0.72 ± 0.42 mm for the spleen. The registration accuracy of the statistical atlas was compared with two publicly available single-subject mouse atlases, i.e., the MOBY phantom and the DIGIMOUSE atlas, and the results proved that the statistical atlas is more accurate than the single atlases. To evaluate the influence of the training subject size, different numbers of training subjects were used for atlas construction and registration. The results showed an improvement of the registration accuracy when more training subjects were used for the atlas construction. The statistical atlas-based registration was also compared with the thin-plate spline based deformable registration, commonly used in mouse atlas registration. The results revealed that the statistical atlas has the advantage of improving the estimation of low-contrast organs. PMID:21859613

Predicting Team Performance through Human Behavioral Sensing and Quantitative Workflow Instrumentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-27

make risk-informed decisions during serious games . Statistical models of intra- game performance were developed to determine whether behaviors in...specific facets of the gameplay workflow were predictive of analytical performance and games outcomes. A study of over seventy instrumented teams revealed...more accurate game decisions. 2 Keywords: Humatics · Serious Games · Human-System Interaction · Instrumentation · Teamwork · Communication Analysis

Capturing the Interaction Potential of Amyloidogenic Proteins

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Javid, Nadeem; Vogtt, Karsten; Winter, Roland

2007-07-13

Experimentally derived static structure factors obtained for the aggregation-prone protein insulin were analyzed with a statistical mechanical model based on the Derjaguin-Landau-Verwey-Overbeek potential. The data reveal that the protein self-assembles into equilibrium clusters already at low concentrations. Furthermore, striking differences regarding interaction forces between aggregation-prone proteins such as insulin in the preaggregated regime and natively stable globular proteins are found.

Generalized theory of semiflexible polymers.

PubMed

Wiggins, Paul A; Nelson, Philip C

2006-03-01

DNA bending on length scales shorter than a persistence length plays an integral role in the translation of genetic information from DNA to cellular function. Quantitative experimental studies of these biological systems have led to a renewed interest in the polymer mechanics relevant for describing the conformational free energy of DNA bending induced by protein-DNA complexes. Recent experimental results from DNA cyclization studies have cast doubt on the applicability of the canonical semiflexible polymer theory, the wormlike chain (WLC) model, to DNA bending on biologically relevant length scales. This paper develops a theory of the chain statistics of a class of generalized semiflexible polymer models. Our focus is on the theoretical development of these models and the calculation of experimental observables. To illustrate our methods, we focus on a specific, illustrative model of DNA bending. We show that the WLC model generically describes the long-length-scale chain statistics of semiflexible polymers, as predicted by renormalization group arguments. In particular, we show that either the WLC or our present model adequately describes force-extension, solution scattering, and long-contour-length cyclization experiments, regardless of the details of DNA bend elasticity. In contrast, experiments sensitive to short-length-scale chain behavior can in principle reveal dramatic departures from the linear elastic behavior assumed in the WLC model. We demonstrate this explicitly by showing that our toy model can reproduce the anomalously large short-contour-length cyclization factors recently measured by Cloutier and Widom. Finally, we discuss the applicability of these models to DNA chain statistics in the context of future experiments.

Statistical physics approaches to Alzheimer's disease

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Shouyong

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the most common cause of late life dementia. In the brain of an AD patient, neurons are lost and spatial neuronal organizations (microcolumns) are disrupted. An adequate quantitative analysis of microcolumns requires that we automate the neuron recognition stage in the analysis of microscopic images of human brain tissue. We propose a recognition method based on statistical physics. Specifically, Monte Carlo simulations of an inhomogeneous Potts model are applied for image segmentation. Unlike most traditional methods, this method improves the recognition of overlapped neurons, and thus improves the overall recognition percentage. Although the exact causes of AD are unknown, as experimental advances have revealed the molecular origin of AD, they have continued to support the amyloid cascade hypothesis, which states that early stages of aggregation of amyloid beta (Abeta) peptides lead to neurodegeneration and death. X-ray diffraction studies reveal the common cross-beta structural features of the final stable aggregates-amyloid fibrils. Solid-state NMR studies also reveal structural features for some well-ordered fibrils. But currently there is no feasible experimental technique that can reveal the exact structure or the precise dynamics of assembly and thus help us understand the aggregation mechanism. Computer simulation offers a way to understand the aggregation mechanism on the molecular level. Because traditional all-atom continuous molecular dynamics simulations are not fast enough to investigate the whole aggregation process, we apply coarse-grained models and discrete molecular dynamics methods to increase the simulation speed. First we use a coarse-grained two-bead (two beads per amino acid) model. Simulations show that peptides can aggregate into multilayer beta-sheet structures, which agree with X-ray diffraction experiments. To better represent the secondary structure transition happening during aggregation, we refine the model to four beads per amino acid. Typical essential interactions, such as backbone hydrogen bond, hydrophobic and electrostatic interactions, are incorporated into our model. We study the aggregation of Abeta16-22, a peptide that can aggregate into a well-ordered fibrillar structure in experiments. Our results show that randomly-oriented monomers can aggregate into fibrillar subunits, which agree not only with X-ray diffraction experiments but also with solid-state NMR studies. Our findings demonstrate that coarse-grained models and discrete molecular dynamics simulations can help researchers understand the aggregation mechanism of amyloid peptides.

Dynamical-statistical seasonal prediction for western North Pacific typhoons based on APCC multi-models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Ok-Yeon; Kim, Hye-Mi; Lee, Myong-In; Min, Young-Mi

2017-01-01

This study aims at predicting the seasonal number of typhoons (TY) over the western North Pacific with an Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC) multi-model ensemble (MME)-based dynamical-statistical hybrid model. The hybrid model uses the statistical relationship between the number of TY during the typhoon season (July-October) and the large-scale key predictors forecasted by APCC MME for the same season. The cross validation result from the MME hybrid model demonstrates high prediction skill, with a correlation of 0.67 between the hindcasts and observation for 1982-2008. The cross validation from the hybrid model with individual models participating in MME indicates that there is no single model which consistently outperforms the other models in predicting typhoon number. Although the forecast skill of MME is not always the highest compared to that of each individual model, the skill of MME presents rather higher averaged correlations and small variance of correlations. Given large set of ensemble members from multi-models, a relative operating characteristic score reveals an 82 % (above-) and 78 % (below-normal) improvement for the probabilistic prediction of the number of TY. It implies that there is 82 % (78 %) probability that the forecasts can successfully discriminate between above normal (below-normal) from other years. The forecast skill of the hybrid model for the past 7 years (2002-2008) is more skillful than the forecast from the Tropical Storm Risk consortium. Using large set of ensemble members from multi-models, the APCC MME could provide useful deterministic and probabilistic seasonal typhoon forecasts to the end-users in particular, the residents of tropical cyclone-prone areas in the Asia-Pacific region.

Using Statistical Mechanics and Entropy Principles to Interpret Variability in Power Law Models of the Streamflow Recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dralle, D.; Karst, N.; Thompson, S. E.

2015-12-01

Multiple competing theories suggest that power law behavior governs the observed first-order dynamics of streamflow recessions - the important process by which catchments dry-out via the stream network, altering the availability of surface water resources and in-stream habitat. Frequently modeled as: dq/dt = -aqb, recessions typically exhibit a high degree of variability, even within a single catchment, as revealed by significant shifts in the values of "a" and "b" across recession events. One potential source of this variability lies in underlying, hard-to-observe fluctuations in how catchment water storage is partitioned amongst distinct storage elements, each having different discharge behaviors. Testing this and competing hypotheses with widely available streamflow timeseries, however, has been hindered by a power law scaling artifact that obscures meaningful covariation between the recession parameters, "a" and "b". Here we briefly outline a technique that removes this artifact, revealing intriguing new patterns in the joint distribution of recession parameters. Using long-term flow data from catchments in Northern California, we explore temporal variations, and find that the "a" parameter varies strongly with catchment wetness. Then we explore how the "b" parameter changes with "a", and find that measures of its variation are maximized at intermediate "a" values. We propose an interpretation of this pattern based on statistical mechanics, meaning "b" can be viewed as an indicator of the catchment "microstate" - i.e. the partitioning of storage - and "a" as a measure of the catchment macrostate (i.e. the total storage). In statistical mechanics, entropy (i.e. microstate variance, that is the variance of "b") is maximized for intermediate values of extensive variables (i.e. wetness, "a"), as observed in the recession data. This interpretation of "a" and "b" was supported by model runs using a multiple-reservoir catchment toy model, and lends support to the hypothesis that power law streamflow recession dynamics, and their variations, have their origin in the multiple modalities of storage partitioning.

Mapping temporal dynamics in social interactions with unified structural equation modeling: A description and demonstration revealing time-dependent sex differences in play behavior

PubMed Central

Beltz, Adriene M.; Beekman, Charles; Molenaar, Peter C. M.; Buss, Kristin A.

2013-01-01

Developmental science is rich with observations of social interactions, but few available methodological and statistical approaches take full advantage of the information provided by these data. The authors propose implementation of the unified structural equation model (uSEM), a network analysis technique, for observational data coded repeatedly across time; uSEM captures the temporal dynamics underlying changes in behavior at the individual level by revealing the ways in which a single person influences – concurrently and in the future – other people. To demonstrate the utility of uSEM, the authors applied it to ratings of positive affect and vigor of activity during children’s unstructured laboratory play with unfamiliar, same-sex peers. Results revealed the time-dependent nature of sex differences in play behavior. For girls more than boys, positive affect was dependent upon peers’ prior positive affect. For boys more than girls, vigor of activity was dependent upon peers’ current vigor of activity. PMID:24039386

Primary Student-Teachers' Conceptual Understanding of the Greenhouse Effect: A mixed method study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratinen, Ilkka Johannes

2013-04-01

The greenhouse effect is a reasonably complex scientific phenomenon which can be used as a model to examine students' conceptual understanding in science. Primary student-teachers' understanding of global environmental problems, such as climate change and ozone depletion, indicates that they have many misconceptions. The present mixed method study examines Finnish primary student-teachers' understanding of the greenhouse effect based on the results obtained via open-ended and closed-form questionnaires. The open-ended questionnaire considers primary student-teachers' spontaneous ideas about the greenhouse effect depicted by concept maps. The present study also uses statistical analysis to reveal respondents' conceptualization of the greenhouse effect. The concept maps and statistical analysis reveal that the primary student-teachers' factual knowledge and their conceptual understanding of the greenhouse effect are incomplete and even misleading. In the light of the results of the present study, proposals for modifying the instruction of climate change in science, especially in geography, are presented.

Effects of Long-Term Thermal Exposure on Commercially Pure Titanium Grade 2 Elevated-Temperature Tensile Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ellis, David L.

2012-01-01

Elevated-temperature tensile testing of commercially pure titanium (CP Ti) Grade 2 was conducted for as-received commercially produced sheet and following thermal exposure at 550 and 650 K (531 and 711 F) for times up to 5000 h. The tensile testing revealed some statistical differences between the 11 thermal treatments, but most thermal treatments were statistically equivalent. Previous data from room temperature tensile testing was combined with the new data to allow regression and development of mathematical models relating tensile properties to temperature and thermal exposure. The results indicate that thermal exposure temperature has a very small effect, whereas the thermal exposure duration has no statistically significant effects on the tensile properties. These results indicate that CP Ti Grade 2 will be thermally stable and suitable for long-duration space missions.

Experimental design and statistical methods for improved hit detection in high-throughput screening.

PubMed

Malo, Nathalie; Hanley, James A; Carlile, Graeme; Liu, Jing; Pelletier, Jerry; Thomas, David; Nadon, Robert

2010-09-01

Identification of active compounds in high-throughput screening (HTS) contexts can be substantially improved by applying classical experimental design and statistical inference principles to all phases of HTS studies. The authors present both experimental and simulated data to illustrate how true-positive rates can be maximized without increasing false-positive rates by the following analytical process. First, the use of robust data preprocessing methods reduces unwanted variation by removing row, column, and plate biases. Second, replicate measurements allow estimation of the magnitude of the remaining random error and the use of formal statistical models to benchmark putative hits relative to what is expected by chance. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed superior power for data preprocessed by a trimmed-mean polish method combined with the RVM t-test, particularly for small- to moderate-sized biological hits.

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated in this paper using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportantmore » forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Finally, both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.« less

Statistical assessment of bi-exponential diffusion weighted imaging signal characteristics induced by intravoxel incoherent motion in malignant breast tumors

PubMed Central

Wong, Oi Lei; Lo, Gladys G.; Chan, Helen H. L.; Wong, Ting Ting; Cheung, Polly S. Y.

2016-01-01

Background The purpose of this study is to statistically assess whether bi-exponential intravoxel incoherent motion (IVIM) model better characterizes diffusion weighted imaging (DWI) signal of malignant breast tumor than mono-exponential Gaussian diffusion model. Methods 3 T DWI data of 29 malignant breast tumors were retrospectively included. Linear least-square mono-exponential fitting and segmented least-square bi-exponential fitting were used for apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and IVIM parameter quantification, respectively. F-test and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) were used to statistically assess the preference of mono-exponential and bi-exponential model using region-of-interests (ROI)-averaged and voxel-wise analysis. Results For ROI-averaged analysis, 15 tumors were significantly better fitted by bi-exponential function and 14 tumors exhibited mono-exponential behavior. The calculated ADC, D (true diffusion coefficient) and f (pseudo-diffusion fraction) showed no significant differences between mono-exponential and bi-exponential preferable tumors. Voxel-wise analysis revealed that 27 tumors contained more voxels exhibiting mono-exponential DWI decay while only 2 tumors presented more bi-exponential decay voxels. ADC was consistently and significantly larger than D for both ROI-averaged and voxel-wise analysis. Conclusions Although the presence of IVIM effect in malignant breast tumors could be suggested, statistical assessment shows that bi-exponential fitting does not necessarily better represent the DWI signal decay in breast cancer under clinically typical acquisition protocol and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Our study indicates the importance to statistically examine the breast cancer DWI signal characteristics in practice. PMID:27709078

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

DOE PAGES

Yu, Yan; Notaro, Michael; Wang, Fuyao; ...

2018-02-05

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated in this paper using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportantmore » forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Finally, both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.« less

Multiscale Characterization of the Probability Density Functions of Velocity and Temperature Increment Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMarco, Adam Ward

The turbulent motions with the atmospheric boundary layer exist over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales and are very difficult to characterize. Thus, to explore the behavior of such complex flow enviroments, it is customary to examine their properties from a statistical perspective. Utilizing the probability density functions of velocity and temperature increments, deltau and deltaT, respectively, this work investigates their multiscale behavior to uncover the unique traits that have yet to be thoroughly studied. Utilizing diverse datasets, including idealized, wind tunnel experiments, atmospheric turbulence field measurements, multi-year ABL tower observations, and mesoscale models simulations, this study reveals remarkable similiarities (and some differences) between the small and larger scale components of the probability density functions increments fields. This comprehensive analysis also utilizes a set of statistical distributions to showcase their ability to capture features of the velocity and temperature increments' probability density functions (pdfs) across multiscale atmospheric motions. An approach is proposed for estimating their pdfs utilizing the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) technique, which has never been conducted utilizing atmospheric data. Using this technique, we reveal the ability to estimate higher-order moments accurately with a limited sample size, which has been a persistent concern for atmospheric turbulence research. With the use robust Goodness of Fit (GoF) metrics, we quantitatively reveal the accuracy of the distributions to the diverse dataset. Through this analysis, it is shown that the normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is a prime candidate to be used as an estimate of the increment pdfs fields. Therefore, using the NIG model and its parameters, we display the variations in the increments over a range of scales revealing some unique scale-dependent qualities under various stability and ow conditions. This novel approach can provide a method of characterizing increment fields with the sole use of only four pdf parameters. Also, we investigate the capability of the current state-of-the-art mesoscale atmospheric models to predict the features and highlight the potential for use for future model development. With the knowledge gained in this study, a number of applications can benefit by using our methodology, including the wind energy and optical wave propagation fields.

Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

2009-12-01

This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

Root Cause Analysis of Quality Defects Using HPLC-MS Fingerprint Knowledgebase for Batch-to-batch Quality Control of Herbal Drugs.

PubMed

Yan, Binjun; Fang, Zhonghua; Shen, Lijuan; Qu, Haibin

2015-01-01

The batch-to-batch quality consistency of herbal drugs has always been an important issue. To propose a methodology for batch-to-batch quality control based on HPLC-MS fingerprints and process knowledgebase. The extraction process of Compound E-jiao Oral Liquid was taken as a case study. After establishing the HPLC-MS fingerprint analysis method, the fingerprints of the extract solutions produced under normal and abnormal operation conditions were obtained. Multivariate statistical models were built for fault detection and a discriminant analysis model was built using the probabilistic discriminant partial-least-squares method for fault diagnosis. Based on multivariate statistical analysis, process knowledge was acquired and the cause-effect relationship between process deviations and quality defects was revealed. The quality defects were detected successfully by multivariate statistical control charts and the type of process deviations were diagnosed correctly by discriminant analysis. This work has demonstrated the benefits of combining HPLC-MS fingerprints, process knowledge and multivariate analysis for the quality control of herbal drugs. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical mechanical analysis of linear programming relaxation for combinatorial optimization problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takabe, Satoshi; Hukushima, Koji

2016-05-01

Typical behavior of the linear programming (LP) problem is studied as a relaxation of the minimum vertex cover (min-VC), a type of integer programming (IP) problem. A lattice-gas model on the Erdös-Rényi random graphs of α -uniform hyperedges is proposed to express both the LP and IP problems of the min-VC in the common statistical mechanical model with a one-parameter family. Statistical mechanical analyses reveal for α =2 that the LP optimal solution is typically equal to that given by the IP below the critical average degree c =e in the thermodynamic limit. The critical threshold for good accuracy of the relaxation extends the mathematical result c =1 and coincides with the replica symmetry-breaking threshold of the IP. The LP relaxation for the minimum hitting sets with α ≥3 , minimum vertex covers on α -uniform random graphs, is also studied. Analytic and numerical results strongly suggest that the LP relaxation fails to estimate optimal values above the critical average degree c =e /(α -1 ) where the replica symmetry is broken.

Statistical mechanical analysis of linear programming relaxation for combinatorial optimization problems.

PubMed

Takabe, Satoshi; Hukushima, Koji

2016-05-01

Typical behavior of the linear programming (LP) problem is studied as a relaxation of the minimum vertex cover (min-VC), a type of integer programming (IP) problem. A lattice-gas model on the Erdös-Rényi random graphs of α-uniform hyperedges is proposed to express both the LP and IP problems of the min-VC in the common statistical mechanical model with a one-parameter family. Statistical mechanical analyses reveal for α=2 that the LP optimal solution is typically equal to that given by the IP below the critical average degree c=e in the thermodynamic limit. The critical threshold for good accuracy of the relaxation extends the mathematical result c=1 and coincides with the replica symmetry-breaking threshold of the IP. The LP relaxation for the minimum hitting sets with α≥3, minimum vertex covers on α-uniform random graphs, is also studied. Analytic and numerical results strongly suggest that the LP relaxation fails to estimate optimal values above the critical average degree c=e/(α-1) where the replica symmetry is broken.

Micro-mechanics of hydro-mechanical coupled processes during hydraulic fracturing in sandstone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caulk, R.; Tomac, I.

2017-12-01

This contribution presents micro-mechanical study of hydraulic fracture initiation and propagation in sandstone. The Discrete Element Method (DEM) Yade software is used as a tool to model fully coupled hydro-mechanical behavior of the saturated sandstone under pressures typical for deep geo-reservoirs. Heterogeneity of sandstone strength tensile and shear parameters are introduced using statistical representation of cathodoluminiscence (CL) sandstone rock images. Weibull distribution of statistical parameter values was determined as a best match of the CL scans of sandstone grains and cement between grains. Results of hydraulic fracturing stimulation from the well bore indicate significant difference between models with the bond strengths informed from CL scans and uniform homogeneous representation of sandstone parameters. Micro-mechanical insight reveals formed hydraulic fracture typical for mode I or tensile cracking in both cases. However, the shear micro-cracks are abundant in the CL informed model while they are absent in the standard model with uniform strength distribution. Most of the mode II cracks, or shear micro-cracks, are not part of the main hydraulic fracture and occur in the near-tip and near-fracture areas. The position and occurrence of the shear micro-cracks is characterized as secondary effect which dissipates the hydraulic fracturing energy. Additionally, the shear micro-crack locations qualitatively resemble acoustic emission cloud of shear cracks frequently observed in hydraulic fracturing, and sometimes interpreted as re-activation of existing fractures. Clearly, our model does not contain pre-existing cracks and has continuous nature prior to fracturing. This observation is novel and interesting and is quantified in the paper. The shear particle contact forces field reveals significant relaxation compared to the model with uniform strength distribution.

A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

PubMed

Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

2015-03-01

Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

Exploration–exploitation trade-off features a saltatory search behaviour

PubMed Central

Volchenkov, Dimitri; Helbach, Jonathan; Tscherepanow, Marko; Kühnel, Sina

2013-01-01

Searching experiments conducted in different virtual environments over a gender-balanced group of people revealed a gender irrelevant scale-free spread of searching activity on large spatio-temporal scales. We have suggested and solved analytically a simple statistical model of the coherent-noise type describing the exploration–exploitation trade-off in humans (‘should I stay’ or ‘should I go’). The model exhibits a variety of saltatory behaviours, ranging from Lévy flights occurring under uncertainty to Brownian walks performed by a treasure hunter confident of the eventual success. PMID:23782535

Machine Learning Prediction of the Energy Gap of Graphene Nanoflakes Using Topological Autocorrelation Vectors.

PubMed

Fernandez, Michael; Abreu, Jose I; Shi, Hongqing; Barnard, Amanda S

2016-11-14

The possibility of band gap engineering in graphene opens countless new opportunities for application in nanoelectronics. In this work, the energy gaps of 622 computationally optimized graphene nanoflakes were mapped to topological autocorrelation vectors using machine learning techniques. Machine learning modeling revealed that the most relevant correlations appear at topological distances in the range of 1 to 42 with prediction accuracy higher than 80%. The data-driven model can statistically discriminate between graphene nanoflakes with different energy gaps on the basis of their molecular topology.

Globalizing Air Pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have revealed the issue of globalizing air pollution through complex coupling of atmospheric transport (physical route) and economic trade (socioeconomic route). Recognition of such globalizing air pollution has important implications for understanding the impacts of regional and global consumption (of goods and services) on air quality, public health, climate and the ecosystems. And addressing these questions often requires improved modeling, measurements and economic-emission statistics. This talk will introduce the concept and mechanism of globalizing air pollution, with following demonstrations based on recent works on modeling, satellite measurement and multi-disciplinary assessment.

Steroid-induced osteoporosis monitored by Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Jason R.; Takahata, Masahiko; Awad, Hani A.; Berger, Andrew J.

2011-03-01

Glucocorticoids are frequently used to treat inflammatory disorders such as rheumatoid arthritis. Unfortunately, extended exposure to this steroid is the leading cause of physician-induced osteoporosis, leaving patients susceptible to fractures at rates of 30-50%. In this presentation, we report correlations between Raman spectra and biomechanical strength tests on bones of glucocorticoid- and placebo- treated mice. Both wild-type mice and a transgenic model of rheumatoid arthritis have been studied. A two-way ANOVA model reveals statistically significant spectral differences as influenced by glucocorticoid treatment and mouse type.

Climatic change on the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America) using two-step statistical downscaling of CMIP5 model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribalaygua, Jaime; Gaitán, Emma; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2018-05-01

A two-step statistical downscaling method has been reviewed and adapted to simulate twenty-first-century climate projections for the Gulf of Fonseca (Central America, Pacific Coast) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models. The downscaling methodology is adjusted after looking for good predictor fields for this area (where the geostrophic approximation fails and the real wind fields are the most applicable). The method's performance for daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature is analysed and revealed suitable results for all variables. For instance, the method is able to simulate the characteristic cycle of the wet season for this area, which includes a mid-summer drought between two peaks. Future projections show a gradual temperature increase throughout the twenty-first century and a change in the features of the wet season (the first peak and mid-summer rainfall being reduced relative to the second peak, earlier onset of the wet season and a broader second peak).

Thermodynamics-based models of transcriptional regulation with gene sequence.

PubMed

Wang, Shuqiang; Shen, Yanyan; Hu, Jinxing

2015-12-01

Quantitative models of gene regulatory activity have the potential to improve our mechanistic understanding of transcriptional regulation. However, the few models available today have been based on simplistic assumptions about the sequences being modeled or heuristic approximations of the underlying regulatory mechanisms. In this work, we have developed a thermodynamics-based model to predict gene expression driven by any DNA sequence. The proposed model relies on a continuous time, differential equation description of transcriptional dynamics. The sequence features of the promoter are exploited to derive the binding affinity which is derived based on statistical molecular thermodynamics. Experimental results show that the proposed model can effectively identify the activity levels of transcription factors and the regulatory parameters. Comparing with the previous models, the proposed model can reveal more biological sense.

Modeling Health Care Expenditures and Use.

PubMed

Deb, Partha; Norton, Edward C

2018-04-01

Health care expenditures and use are challenging to model because these dependent variables typically have distributions that are skewed with a large mass at zero. In this article, we describe estimation and interpretation of the effects of a natural experiment using two classes of nonlinear statistical models: one for health care expenditures and the other for counts of health care use. We extend prior analyses to test the effect of the ACA's young adult expansion on three different outcomes: total health care expenditures, office-based visits, and emergency department visits. Modeling the outcomes with a two-part or hurdle model, instead of a single-equation model, reveals that the ACA policy increased the number of office-based visits but decreased emergency department visits and overall spending.

Opinion Formation Models on a Gradient

PubMed Central

Gastner, Michael T.; Markou, Nikolitsa; Pruessner, Gunnar; Draief, Moez

2014-01-01

Statistical physicists have become interested in models of collective social behavior such as opinion formation, where individuals change their inherently preferred opinion if their friends disagree. Real preferences often depend on regional cultural differences, which we model here as a spatial gradient g in the initial opinion. The gradient does not only add reality to the model. It can also reveal that opinion clusters in two dimensions are typically in the standard (i.e., independent) percolation universality class, thus settling a recent controversy about a non-consensus model. However, using analytical and numerical tools, we also present a model where the width of the transition between opinions scales , not as in independent percolation, and the cluster size distribution is consistent with first-order percolation. PMID:25474528

The Active Side of Stereopsis: Fixation Strategy and Adaptation to Natural Environments.

PubMed

Gibaldi, Agostino; Canessa, Andrea; Sabatini, Silvio P

2017-03-20

Depth perception in near viewing strongly relies on the interpretation of binocular retinal disparity to obtain stereopsis. Statistical regularities of retinal disparities have been claimed to greatly impact on the neural mechanisms that underlie binocular vision, both to facilitate perceptual decisions and to reduce computational load. In this paper, we designed a novel and unconventional approach in order to assess the role of fixation strategy in conditioning the statistics of retinal disparity. We integrated accurate realistic three-dimensional models of natural scenes with binocular eye movement recording, to obtain accurate ground-truth statistics of retinal disparity experienced by a subject in near viewing. Our results evidence how the organization of human binocular visual system is finely adapted to the disparity statistics characterizing actual fixations, thus revealing a novel role of the active fixation strategy over the binocular visual functionality. This suggests an ecological explanation for the intrinsic preference of stereopsis for a close central object surrounded by a far background, as an early binocular aspect of the figure-ground segregation process.

Robust hierarchical state-space models reveal diel variation in travel rates of migrating leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Jonsen, Ian D; Myers, Ransom A; James, Michael C

2006-09-01

1. Biological and statistical complexity are features common to most ecological data that hinder our ability to extract meaningful patterns using conventional tools. Recent work on implementing modern statistical methods for analysis of such ecological data has focused primarily on population dynamics but other types of data, such as animal movement pathways obtained from satellite telemetry, can also benefit from the application of modern statistical tools. 2. We develop a robust hierarchical state-space approach for analysis of multiple satellite telemetry pathways obtained via the Argos system. State-space models are time-series methods that allow unobserved states and biological parameters to be estimated from data observed with error. We show that the approach can reveal important patterns in complex, noisy data where conventional methods cannot. 3. Using the largest Atlantic satellite telemetry data set for critically endangered leatherback turtles, we show that the diel pattern in travel rates of these turtles changes over different phases of their migratory cycle. While foraging in northern waters the turtles show similar travel rates during day and night, but on their southward migration to tropical waters travel rates are markedly faster during the day. These patterns are generally consistent with diving data, and may be related to changes in foraging behaviour. Interestingly, individuals that migrate southward to breed generally show higher daytime travel rates than individuals that migrate southward in a non-breeding year. 4. Our approach is extremely flexible and can be applied to many ecological analyses that use complex, sequential data.

A Modified Mechanical Threshold Stress Constitutive Model for Austenitic Stainless Steels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, K. Sajun; Gupta, Amit Kumar; Singh, Yashjeet; Singh, Swadesh Kumar

2016-12-01

This paper presents a modified mechanical threshold stress (m-MTS) constitutive model. The m-MTS model incorporates variable athermal and dynamic strain aging (DSA) Components to accurately predict the flow stress behavior of austenitic stainless steels (ASS)-316 and 304. Under strain rate variations between 0.01-0.0001 s-1, uniaxial tensile tests were conducted at temperatures ranging from 50-650 °C to evaluate the material constants of constitutive models. The test results revealed the high dependence of flow stress on strain, strain rate and temperature. In addition, it was observed that DSA occurred at elevated temperatures and very low strain rates, causing an increase in flow stress. While the original MTS model is capable of predicting the flow stress behavior for ASS, statistical parameters point out the inefficiency of the model when compared to other models such as Johnson Cook model, modified Zerilli-Armstrong (m-ZA) model, and modified Arrhenius-type equations (m-Arr). Therefore, in order to accurately model both the DSA and non-DSA regimes, the original MTS model was modified by incorporating variable athermal and DSA components. The suitability of the m-MTS model was assessed by comparing the statistical parameters. It was observed that the m-MTS model was highly accurate for the DSA regime when compared to the existing models. However, models like m-ZA and m-Arr showed better results for the non-DSA regime.

Statistical analysis of data and modeling of Nanodust measured by STEREO/WAVES at 1AU

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belheouane, S.; Zaslavsky, A.; Meyer-Vernet, N.; Issautier, K.; Czechowski, A.; Mann, I.; Le Chat, G.; Zouganelis, I.; Maksimovic, M.

2012-12-01

We study the flux of dust particles of nanometer size measured at 1AU by the S/WAVES instrument aboard the twin STEREO spacecraft. When they impact the spacecraft at very high speed, these nanodust particles, first detected by Meyer-Vernet et al. (2009), generate plasma clouds and produce voltage pulses measured by the electric antennas. The Time Domain Sampler (TDS) of the radio and plasma instrument produces temporal windows containing several pulses. We perform a statistical study of the distribution of pulse amplitudes and arrival times in the measuring window during the 2007-2012 period. We interpret the results using simulations of the dynamics of nanodust in the solar wind based on the model of Czechowski and Mann (2010). We also investigate the variations of nanodust fluxes while STEREO rotates about the sunward axis (Roll) ; this reveals that some directions are privilegied.

Time irreversibility and multifractality of power along single particle trajectories in turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cencini, Massimo; Biferale, Luca; Boffetta, Guido; De Pietro, Massimo

2017-10-01

The irreversible turbulent energy cascade epitomizes strongly nonequilibrium systems. At the level of single fluid particles, time irreversibility is revealed by the asymmetry of the rate of kinetic energy change, the Lagrangian power, whose moments display a power-law dependence on the Reynolds number, as recently shown by Xu et al. [H. Xu et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 111, 7558 (2014), 10.1073/pnas.1321682111]. Here Lagrangian power statistics are rationalized within the multifractal model of turbulence, whose predictions are shown to agree with numerical and empirical data. Multifractal predictions are also tested, for very large Reynolds numbers, in dynamical models of the turbulent cascade, obtaining remarkably good agreement for statistical quantities insensitive to the asymmetry and, remarkably, deviations for those probing the asymmetry. These findings raise fundamental questions concerning time irreversibility in the infinite-Reynolds-number limit of the Navier-Stokes equations.

Anomalous Brownian motion discloses viscoelasticity in the ear's mechanoelectrical-transduction apparatus.

PubMed

Kozlov, Andrei S; Andor-Ardó, Daniel; Hudspeth, A J

2012-02-21

The ear detects sounds so faint that they produce only atomic-scale displacements in the mechanoelectrical transducer, yet thermal noise causes fluctuations larger by an order of magnitude. Explaining how hearing can operate when the magnitude of the noise greatly exceeds that of the signal requires an understanding both of the transducer's micromechanics and of the associated noise. Using microrheology, we characterize the statistics of this noise; exploiting the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, we determine the associated micromechanics. The statistics reveal unusual Brownian motion in which the mean square displacement increases as a fractional power of time, indicating that the mechanisms governing energy dissipation are related to those of energy storage. This anomalous scaling contradicts the canonical model of mechanoelectrical transduction, but the results can be explained if the micromechanics incorporates viscoelasticity, a salient characteristic of biopolymers. We amend the canonical model and demonstrate several consequences of viscoelasticity for sensory coding.

Anomalous Brownian motion discloses viscoelasticity in the ear’s mechanoelectrical-transduction apparatus

PubMed Central

Kozlov, Andrei S.; Andor-Ardó, Daniel; Hudspeth, A. J.

2012-01-01

The ear detects sounds so faint that they produce only atomic-scale displacements in the mechanoelectrical transducer, yet thermal noise causes fluctuations larger by an order of magnitude. Explaining how hearing can operate when the magnitude of the noise greatly exceeds that of the signal requires an understanding both of the transducer’s micromechanics and of the associated noise. Using microrheology, we characterize the statistics of this noise; exploiting the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, we determine the associated micromechanics. The statistics reveal unusual Brownian motion in which the mean square displacement increases as a fractional power of time, indicating that the mechanisms governing energy dissipation are related to those of energy storage. This anomalous scaling contradicts the canonical model of mechanoelectrical transduction, but the results can be explained if the micromechanics incorporates viscoelasticity, a salient characteristic of biopolymers. We amend the canonical model and demonstrate several consequences of viscoelasticity for sensory coding. PMID:22328158

Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions

PubMed Central

Kodra, Evan; Ganguly, Auroop R.

2014-01-01

A statistical analysis reveals projections of consistently larger increases in the highest percentiles of summer and winter temperature maxima and minima versus the respective lowest percentiles, resulting in a wider range of temperature extremes in the future. These asymmetric changes in tail distributions of temperature appear robust when explored through 14 CMIP5 climate models and three reanalysis datasets. Asymmetry of projected increases in temperature extremes generalizes widely. Magnitude of the projected asymmetry depends significantly on region, season, land-ocean contrast, and climate model variability as well as whether the extremes of consideration are seasonal minima or maxima events. An assessment of potential physical mechanisms provides support for asymmetric tail increases and hence wider temperature extremes ranges, especially for northern winter extremes. These results offer statistically grounded perspectives on projected changes in the IPCC-recommended extremes indices relevant for impacts and adaptation studies. PMID:25073751

Multi-element fingerprinting as a tool in origin authentication of four east China marine species.

PubMed

Guo, Lipan; Gong, Like; Yu, Yanlei; Zhang, Hong

2013-12-01

The contents of 25 elements in 4 types of commercial marine species from the East China Sea were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry and atomic absorption spectrometry. The elemental composition was used to differentiate marine species according to geographical origin by multivariate statistical analysis. The results showed that principal component analysis could distinguish samples from different areas and reveal the elements which played the most important role in origin diversity. The established models by partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and by probabilistic neural network (PNN) can both precisely predict the origin of the marine species. Further study indicated that PLS-DA and PNN were efficacious in regional discrimination. The models from these 2 statistical methods, with an accuracy of 97.92% and 100%, respectively, could both distinguish samples from different areas without the need for species differentiation. © 2013 Institute of Food Technologists®

Flares, ejections, proton events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belov, A. V.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis is performed for the relationship of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and X-ray flares with the fluxes of solar protons with energies >10 and >100 MeV observed near the Earth. The basis for this analysis was the events that took place in 1976-2015, for which there are reliable observations of X-ray flares on GOES satellites and CME observations with SOHO/LASCO coronagraphs. A fairly good correlation has been revealed between the magnitude of proton enhancements and the power and duration of flares, as well as the initial CME speed. The statistics do not give a clear advantage either to CMEs or the flares concerning their relation with proton events, but the characteristics of the flares and ejections complement each other well and are reasonable to use together in the forecast models. Numerical dependences are obtained that allow estimation of the proton fluxes to the Earth expected from solar observations; possibilities for improving the model are discussed.

Multifactor-Dimensionality Reduction Reveals High-Order Interactions among Estrogen-Metabolism Genes in Sporadic Breast Cancer

PubMed Central

Ritchie, Marylyn D.; Hahn, Lance W.; Roodi, Nady; Bailey, L. Renee; Dupont, William D.; Parl, Fritz F.; Moore, Jason H.

2001-01-01

One of the greatest challenges facing human geneticists is the identification and characterization of susceptibility genes for common complex multifactorial human diseases. This challenge is partly due to the limitations of parametric-statistical methods for detection of gene effects that are dependent solely or partially on interactions with other genes and with environmental exposures. We introduce multifactor-dimensionality reduction (MDR) as a method for reducing the dimensionality of multilocus information, to improve the identification of polymorphism combinations associated with disease risk. The MDR method is nonparametric (i.e., no hypothesis about the value of a statistical parameter is made), is model-free (i.e., it assumes no particular inheritance model), and is directly applicable to case-control and discordant-sib-pair studies. Using simulated case-control data, we demonstrate that MDR has reasonable power to identify interactions among two or more loci in relatively small samples. When it was applied to a sporadic breast cancer case-control data set, in the absence of any statistically significant independent main effects, MDR identified a statistically significant high-order interaction among four polymorphisms from three different estrogen-metabolism genes. To our knowledge, this is the first report of a four-locus interaction associated with a common complex multifactorial disease. PMID:11404819

Mesh Dependence on Shear Driven Boundary Layers in Stable Stratification Generated by Large Eddy-Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Jacob; Patton, Edward G.; Sullivan, Peter S.

2017-11-01

The effect of mesh resolution and size on shear driven atmospheric boundary layers in a stable stratified environment is investigated with the NCAR pseudo-spectral LES model (J. Atmos. Sci. v68, p2395, 2011 and J. Atmos. Sci. v73, p1815, 2016). The model applies FFT in the two horizontal directions and finite differencing in the vertical direction. With vanishing heat flux at the surface and a capping inversion entraining potential temperature into the boundary layer the situation is often called the conditional neutral atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Due to its relevance in high wind applications such as wind power meteorology, we emphasize on second order statistics important for wind turbines including spectral information. The simulations range from mesh sizes of 643 to 10243 grid points. Due to the non-stationarity of the problem, different simulations are compared at equal eddy-turnover times. Whereas grid convergence is mostly achieved in the middle portion of the ABL, statistics close to the surface of the ABL, where the presence of the ground limits the growth of the energy containing eddies, second order statistics are not converged on the studies meshes. Higher order structure functions also reveal non-Gaussian statistics highly dependent on the resolution.

Soil genotoxicity assessment: a new stategy based on biomolecular tools and plant bioindicators.

PubMed

Citterio, Sandra; Aina, Roberta; Labra, Massimo; Ghiani, Alessandra; Fumagalli, Pietro; Sgorbati, Sergio; Santagostino, Angela

2002-06-15

The setting up of efficient early warning systems is a challenge to research for preventing environmental alteration and human disease. In this paper, we report the development and the field application of a new biomonitoring methodology for assessing soil genotoxicity. In the first part, the use of amplified fragment length polymorphism and flow cytometry techniques to detect DNA damage induced by soils artificially contaminated with heavy metals as potentially genotoxic compounds is explained. Results show that the combination of the two techniques leads to efficient detection of the sublethal genotoxic effect induced in the plant bioindicator by contaminated soil. By contrast, the classic mortality, root, and shoot growth vegetative endpoints prove inappropriate for assessing soil genotoxicity because, although they cause genotoxic damage, some heavy metals do not affect sentinel plant development negatively. The statistical elaboration of the data obtained led to the development of a statistical predictive model which differentiates four different levels of soil genotoxic pollution and can be used everywhere. The second part deals with the application of the biomonitoring protocol in the genotoxic assessment of two areas surrounding a steelworks in northern Italy and the effectiveness of this methodology. In this particular case, in these areas, the predictive model reveals a pollution level strictly correlated to the heavy metal concentrations revealed by traditional chemical analysis.

Cannabis sativa (Marijuana) alters blood chemistry and the cytoarchitecture of some organs in Sprague Dawley rat models.

PubMed

Abey, Nosarieme Omoregie

2018-06-01

There is evidence that Cannabis whose active ingredient is tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) is the most commonly abused neuroactive substance, among young adults. This work investigated the effects of Cannabis sativa on the cytoarchitecture of some key organs and the blood chemistry of rat models. Twenty-one (21) male Sprague Dawley rats were fed different percentage of cannabis chow (0%, 5% and 10%) for a period of seven (7) weeks. Rats were subjected to intermittent cognitive function test and sacrificed after the seventh week, collecting the blood, brain and other important tissues for analysis which include; brain total protein and nitric oxide concentration, blood chemistry and histopathology. Results revealed a dose-dependent decline in the cognitive function, statistically significant decrease in the brain total protein and nitric oxide. Histopathology revealed significant hypertrophy in the heart, hypercellularity in neuronal cells, prominent sinusoids cytoarchitecture of the hepatocytes and vascular congestion in the seminiferous tubules of testes. There was a statistically significant difference in the plasma ALP, ALT, AST level between controls and the cannabis test groups. Cannabis use caused cellular damage through mediation of imbalance and altered cytoarchitecture which may affects the overall health of dependent user. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examination of influential observations in penalized spline regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Türkan, Semra

2013-10-01

In parametric or nonparametric regression models, the results of regression analysis are affected by some anomalous observations in the data set. Thus, detection of these observations is one of the major steps in regression analysis. These observations are precisely detected by well-known influence measures. Pena's statistic is one of them. In this study, Pena's approach is formulated for penalized spline regression in terms of ordinary residuals and leverages. The real data and artificial data are used to see illustrate the effectiveness of Pena's statistic as to Cook's distance on detecting influential observations. The results of the study clearly reveal that the proposed measure is superior to Cook's Distance to detect these observations in large data set.

Patterns of medicinal plant use: an examination of the Ecuadorian Shuar medicinal flora using contingency table and binomial analyses.

PubMed

Bennett, Bradley C; Husby, Chad E

2008-03-28

Botanical pharmacopoeias are non-random subsets of floras, with some taxonomic groups over- or under-represented. Moerman [Moerman, D.E., 1979. Symbols and selectivity: a statistical analysis of Native American medical ethnobotany, Journal of Ethnopharmacology 1, 111-119] introduced linear regression/residual analysis to examine these patterns. However, regression, the commonly-employed analysis, suffers from several statistical flaws. We use contingency table and binomial analyses to examine patterns of Shuar medicinal plant use (from Amazonian Ecuador). We first analyzed the Shuar data using Moerman's approach, modified to better meet requirements of linear regression analysis. Second, we assessed the exact randomization contingency table test for goodness of fit. Third, we developed a binomial model to test for non-random selection of plants in individual families. Modified regression models (which accommodated assumptions of linear regression) reduced R(2) to from 0.59 to 0.38, but did not eliminate all problems associated with regression analyses. Contingency table analyses revealed that the entire flora departs from the null model of equal proportions of medicinal plants in all families. In the binomial analysis, only 10 angiosperm families (of 115) differed significantly from the null model. These 10 families are largely responsible for patterns seen at higher taxonomic levels. Contingency table and binomial analyses offer an easy and statistically valid alternative to the regression approach.

The Math Problem: Advertising Students' Attitudes toward Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Jami A.; Kendrick, Alice

2013-01-01

This study used the Students' Attitudes toward Statistics Scale (STATS) to measure attitude toward statistics among a national sample of advertising students. A factor analysis revealed four underlying factors make up the attitude toward statistics construct--"Interest & Future Applicability," "Confidence," "Statistical Tools," and "Initiative."…

Increased skills usage statistically mediates symptom reduction in self-guided internet-delivered cognitive-behavioural therapy for depression and anxiety: a randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Terides, Matthew D; Dear, Blake F; Fogliati, Vincent J; Gandy, Milena; Karin, Eyal; Jones, Michael P; Titov, Nickolai

2018-01-01

Cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) is an effective treatment for clinical and subclinical symptoms of depression and general anxiety, and increases life satisfaction. Patients' usage of CBT skills is a core aspect of treatment but there is insufficient empirical evidence suggesting that skills usage behaviours are a mechanism of clinical change. This study investigated if an internet-delivered CBT (iCBT) intervention increased the frequency of CBT skills usage behaviours and if this statistically mediated reductions in symptoms and increased life satisfaction. A two-group randomised controlled trial was conducted comparing internet-delivered CBT (n = 65) with a waitlist control group (n = 75). Participants were individuals experiencing clinically significant symptoms of depression or general anxiety. Mixed-linear models analyses revealed that the treatment group reported a significantly higher frequency of skills usage, lower symptoms, and higher life satisfaction by the end of treatment compared with the control group. Results from bootstrapping mediation analyses revealed that the increased skills usage behaviours statistically mediated symptom reductions and increased life satisfaction. Although skills usage and symptom outcomes were assessed concurrently, these findings support the notion that iCBT increases the frequency of skills usage behaviours and suggest that this may be an important mechanism of change.

Toward a Better Understanding of the Relationship between Belief in the Paranormal and Statistical Bias: The Potential Role of Schizotypy

PubMed Central

Dagnall, Neil; Denovan, Andrew; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2016-01-01

The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief), belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy). Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience (UnExp) subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures [RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs (TPB) and new age philosophy]. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with UnExp and belief in the paranormal (particularly the TPB dimension of the RPBS). Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to UnExp. Structural equation modeling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between UnExp and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst UnExp correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness), there was no association between UnExp and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction). PMID:27471481

Toward a Better Understanding of the Relationship between Belief in the Paranormal and Statistical Bias: The Potential Role of Schizotypy.

PubMed

Dagnall, Neil; Denovan, Andrew; Drinkwater, Kenneth; Parker, Andrew; Clough, Peter

2016-01-01

The present paper examined relationships between schizotypy (measured by the Oxford-Liverpool Inventory of Feelings and Experience; O-LIFE scale brief), belief in the paranormal (assessed via the Revised Paranormal Belief Scale; RPBS) and proneness to statistical bias (i.e., perception of randomness and susceptibility to conjunction fallacy). Participants were 254 volunteers recruited via convenience sampling. Probabilistic reasoning problems appeared framed within both standard and paranormal contexts. Analysis revealed positive correlations between the Unusual Experience (UnExp) subscale of O-LIFE and paranormal belief measures [RPBS full scale, traditional paranormal beliefs (TPB) and new age philosophy]. Performance on standard problems correlated negatively with UnExp and belief in the paranormal (particularly the TPB dimension of the RPBS). Consideration of specific problem types revealed that perception of randomness associated more strongly with belief in the paranormal than conjunction; both problem types related similarly to UnExp. Structural equation modeling specified that belief in the paranormal mediated the indirect relationship between UnExp and statistical bias. For problems presented in a paranormal context a framing effect occurred. Whilst UnExp correlated positively with conjunction proneness (controlling for perception of randomness), there was no association between UnExp and perception of randomness (controlling for conjunction).

Uncovering Local Trends in Genetic Effects of Multiple Phenotypes via Functional Linear Models.

PubMed

Vsevolozhskaya, Olga A; Zaykin, Dmitri V; Barondess, David A; Tong, Xiaoren; Jadhav, Sneha; Lu, Qing

2016-04-01

Recent technological advances equipped researchers with capabilities that go beyond traditional genotyping of loci known to be polymorphic in a general population. Genetic sequences of study participants can now be assessed directly. This capability removed technology-driven bias toward scoring predominantly common polymorphisms and let researchers reveal a wealth of rare and sample-specific variants. Although the relative contributions of rare and common polymorphisms to trait variation are being debated, researchers are faced with the need for new statistical tools for simultaneous evaluation of all variants within a region. Several research groups demonstrated flexibility and good statistical power of the functional linear model approach. In this work we extend previous developments to allow inclusion of multiple traits and adjustment for additional covariates. Our functional approach is unique in that it provides a nuanced depiction of effects and interactions for the variables in the model by representing them as curves varying over a genetic region. We demonstrate flexibility and competitive power of our approach by contrasting its performance with commonly used statistical tools and illustrate its potential for discovery and characterization of genetic architecture of complex traits using sequencing data from the Dallas Heart Study. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Low-Level Contrast Statistics of Natural Images Can Modulate the Frequency of Event-Related Potentials (ERP) in Humans.

PubMed

Ghodrati, Masoud; Ghodousi, Mahrad; Yoonessi, Ali

2016-01-01

Humans are fast and accurate in categorizing complex natural images. It is, however, unclear what features of visual information are exploited by brain to perceive the images with such speed and accuracy. It has been shown that low-level contrast statistics of natural scenes can explain the variance of amplitude of event-related potentials (ERP) in response to rapidly presented images. In this study, we investigated the effect of these statistics on frequency content of ERPs. We recorded ERPs from human subjects, while they viewed natural images each presented for 70 ms. Our results showed that Weibull contrast statistics, as a biologically plausible model, explained the variance of ERPs the best, compared to other image statistics that we assessed. Our time-frequency analysis revealed a significant correlation between these statistics and ERPs' power within theta frequency band (~3-7 Hz). This is interesting, as theta band is believed to be involved in context updating and semantic encoding. This correlation became significant at ~110 ms after stimulus onset, and peaked at 138 ms. Our results show that not only the amplitude but also the frequency of neural responses can be modulated with low-level contrast statistics of natural images and highlights their potential role in scene perception.

Low-Level Contrast Statistics of Natural Images Can Modulate the Frequency of Event-Related Potentials (ERP) in Humans

PubMed Central

Ghodrati, Masoud; Ghodousi, Mahrad; Yoonessi, Ali

2016-01-01

Humans are fast and accurate in categorizing complex natural images. It is, however, unclear what features of visual information are exploited by brain to perceive the images with such speed and accuracy. It has been shown that low-level contrast statistics of natural scenes can explain the variance of amplitude of event-related potentials (ERP) in response to rapidly presented images. In this study, we investigated the effect of these statistics on frequency content of ERPs. We recorded ERPs from human subjects, while they viewed natural images each presented for 70 ms. Our results showed that Weibull contrast statistics, as a biologically plausible model, explained the variance of ERPs the best, compared to other image statistics that we assessed. Our time-frequency analysis revealed a significant correlation between these statistics and ERPs' power within theta frequency band (~3–7 Hz). This is interesting, as theta band is believed to be involved in context updating and semantic encoding. This correlation became significant at ~110 ms after stimulus onset, and peaked at 138 ms. Our results show that not only the amplitude but also the frequency of neural responses can be modulated with low-level contrast statistics of natural images and highlights their potential role in scene perception. PMID:28018197

Comparison of field-aligned currents at ionospheric and magnetospheric altitudes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spence, H. E.; Kivelson, M. G.; Walker, R. J.

1988-01-01

Using the empirical terrestrial magnetospheric magnetic field models of Tsyganenko and Usmanov (1982) and Tsyganenko (1987) the average field-aligned currents (FACs) in the magnetosphere were determined as a function of the Kp index. Three major model FAC systems were identified, namely, the dayside region 1, the nightside region 1, and the nightside polar cap. The models provide information about the sources of the current systems. Mapped ionospheric model FACs are compared with low-altitude measurements obtained by the spacecraft. It is found that low-altitude data can reveal either classic region 1/2 or more highly structured FAC patterns. Therefore, statistical results either obtained from observations or inferred from models are expected to be averages over temporally and spatially shifting patterns.

Pattern Recognition Analysis of Age-Related Retinal Ganglion Cell Signatures in the Human Eye

PubMed Central

Yoshioka, Nayuta; Zangerl, Barbara; Nivison-Smith, Lisa; Khuu, Sieu K.; Jones, Bryan W.; Pfeiffer, Rebecca L.; Marc, Robert E.; Kalloniatis, Michael

2017-01-01

Purpose To characterize macular ganglion cell layer (GCL) changes with age and provide a framework to assess changes in ocular disease. This study used data clustering to analyze macular GCL patterns from optical coherence tomography (OCT) in a large cohort of subjects without ocular disease. Methods Single eyes of 201 patients evaluated at the Centre for Eye Health (Sydney, Australia) were retrospectively enrolled (age range, 20–85); 8 × 8 grid locations obtained from Spectralis OCT macular scans were analyzed with unsupervised classification into statistically separable classes sharing common GCL thickness and change with age. The resulting classes and gridwise data were fitted with linear and segmented linear regression curves. Additionally, normalized data were analyzed to determine regression as a percentage. Accuracy of each model was examined through comparison of predicted 50-year-old equivalent macular GCL thickness for the entire cohort to a true 50-year-old reference cohort. Results Pattern recognition clustered GCL thickness across the macula into five to eight spatially concentric classes. F-test demonstrated segmented linear regression to be the most appropriate model for macular GCL change. The pattern recognition–derived and normalized model revealed less difference between the predicted macular GCL thickness and the reference cohort (average ± SD 0.19 ± 0.92 and −0.30 ± 0.61 μm) than a gridwise model (average ± SD 0.62 ± 1.43 μm). Conclusions Pattern recognition successfully identified statistically separable macular areas that undergo a segmented linear reduction with age. This regression model better predicted macular GCL thickness. The various unique spatial patterns revealed by pattern recognition combined with core GCL thickness data provide a framework to analyze GCL loss in ocular disease. PMID:28632847

An application of statistics to comparative metagenomics

PubMed Central

Rodriguez-Brito, Beltran; Rohwer, Forest; Edwards, Robert A

2006-01-01

Background Metagenomics, sequence analyses of genomic DNA isolated directly from the environments, can be used to identify organisms and model community dynamics of a particular ecosystem. Metagenomics also has the potential to identify significantly different metabolic potential in different environments. Results Here we use a statistical method to compare curated subsystems, to predict the physiology, metabolism, and ecology from metagenomes. This approach can be used to identify those subsystems that are significantly different between metagenome sequences. Subsystems that were overrepresented in the Sargasso Sea and Acid Mine Drainage metagenome when compared to non-redundant databases were identified. Conclusion The methodology described herein applies statistics to the comparisons of metabolic potential in metagenomes. This analysis reveals those subsystems that are more, or less, represented in the different environments that are compared. These differences in metabolic potential lead to several testable hypotheses about physiology and metabolism of microbes from these ecosystems. PMID:16549025

An application of statistics to comparative metagenomics.

PubMed

Rodriguez-Brito, Beltran; Rohwer, Forest; Edwards, Robert A

2006-03-20

Metagenomics, sequence analyses of genomic DNA isolated directly from the environments, can be used to identify organisms and model community dynamics of a particular ecosystem. Metagenomics also has the potential to identify significantly different metabolic potential in different environments. Here we use a statistical method to compare curated subsystems, to predict the physiology, metabolism, and ecology from metagenomes. This approach can be used to identify those subsystems that are significantly different between metagenome sequences. Subsystems that were overrepresented in the Sargasso Sea and Acid Mine Drainage metagenome when compared to non-redundant databases were identified. The methodology described herein applies statistics to the comparisons of metabolic potential in metagenomes. This analysis reveals those subsystems that are more, or less, represented in the different environments that are compared. These differences in metabolic potential lead to several testable hypotheses about physiology and metabolism of microbes from these ecosystems.

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion and Excursion Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2014-01-01

In a previous work, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) event data was conducted to ascertain the relevance of this data to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to several of the AvSP top ten TC and identified numerous primary causes and contributing factors of RI events. The statistical analysis served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events, also previously reported. Through literature searches and data analysis, this RI event network has now been extended to also model runway excursion (RE) events. These RI and RE event networks have been further modified and vetted by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel. The combined system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI and RE events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of runway safety incidents/accidents, and to improve runway safety in general. The development and structure of the BBN for both RI and RE events are documented in this paper.

Micromechanical investigation of sand migration in gas hydrate-bearing sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uchida, S.; Klar, A.; Cohen, E.

2017-12-01

Past field gas production tests from hydrate bearing sediments have indicated that sand migration is an important phenomenon that needs to be considered for successful long-term gas production. The authors previously developed the continuum based analytical thermo-hydro-mechanical sand migration model that can be applied to predict wellbore responses during gas production. However, the model parameters involved in the model still needs to be calibrated and studied thoroughly and it still remains a challenge to conduct well-defined laboratory experiments of sand migration, especially in hydrate-bearing sediments. Taking the advantage of capability of micromechanical modelling approach through discrete element method (DEM), this work presents a first step towards quantifying one of the model parameters that governs stresses reduction due to grain detachment. Grains represented by DEM particles are randomly removed from an isotropically loaded DEM specimen and statistical analyses reveal that linear proportionality exists between the normalized volume of detached solids and normalized reduced stresses. The DEM specimen with different porosities (different packing densities) are also considered and statistical analyses show that there is a clear transition between loose sand behavior and dense sand behavior, characterized by the relative density.

A statistical model for predicting the inter-annual variability of birch pollen abundance in Northern and North-Eastern Europe.

PubMed

Ritenberga, Olga; Sofiev, Mikhail; Siljamo, Pilvi; Saarto, Annika; Dahl, Aslog; Ekebom, Agneta; Sauliene, Ingrida; Shalaboda, Valentina; Severova, Elena; Hoebeke, Lucie; Ramfjord, Hallvard

2018-02-15

The paper suggests a methodology for predicting next-year seasonal pollen index (SPI, a sum of daily-mean pollen concentrations) over large regions and demonstrates its performance for birch in Northern and North-Eastern Europe. A statistical model is constructed using meteorological, geophysical and biological characteristics of the previous year). A cluster analysis of multi-annual data of European Aeroallergen Network (EAN) revealed several large regions in Europe, where the observed SPI exhibits similar patterns of the multi-annual variability. We built the model for the northern cluster of stations, which covers Finland, Sweden, Baltic States, part of Belarus, and, probably, Russia and Norway, where the lack of data did not allow for conclusive analysis. The constructed model was capable of predicting the SPI with correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.9 for some stations, odds ratio is infinitely high for 50% of sites inside the region and the fraction of prediction falling within factor of 2 from observations, stays within 40-70%. In particular, model successfully reproduced both the bi-annual cycle of the SPI and years when this cycle breaks down. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Investigation of Dental Luting Cement Solubility as a Function of the Marginal Gap.

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-05-01

way ANOVA for the Phase 1 Diffusion Study revealed that there were statistically significant differences between the test groups. A Duncan’s Multiple...cement. The 25, 50, and 75 micron groups demonstrated no statistically significant differences in the amount of remaining luting cement. ( p< 0.05) A...one-way ANOVA was also performed on Phase 2 Dynamic Study. This test revealed that there were statistically significant differences among the test

Relating triggering processes in lab experiments with earthquakes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baro Urbea, J.; Davidsen, J.; Kwiatek, G.; Charalampidou, E. M.; Goebel, T.; Stanchits, S. A.; Vives, E.; Dresen, G.

2016-12-01

Statistical relations such as Gutenberg-Richter's, Omori-Utsu's and the productivity of aftershocks were first observed in seismology, but are also common to other physical phenomena exhibiting avalanche dynamics such as solar flares, rock fracture, structural phase transitions and even stock market transactions. All these examples exhibit spatio-temporal correlations that can be explained as triggering processes: Instead of being activated as a response to external driving or fluctuations, some events are consequence of previous activity. Although different plausible explanations have been suggested in each system, the ubiquity of such statistical laws remains unknown. However, the case of rock fracture may exhibit a physical connection with seismology. It has been suggested that some features of seismology have a microscopic origin and are reproducible over a vast range of scales. This hypothesis has motivated mechanical experiments to generate artificial catalogues of earthquakes at a laboratory scale -so called labquakes- and under controlled conditions. Microscopic fractures in lab tests release elastic waves that are recorded as ultrasonic (kHz-MHz) acoustic emission (AE) events by means of piezoelectric transducers. Here, we analyse the statistics of labquakes recorded during the failure of small samples of natural rocks and artificial porous materials under different controlled compression regimes. Temporal and spatio-temporal correlations are identified in certain cases. Specifically, we distinguish between the background and triggered events, revealing some differences in the statistical properties. We fit the data to statistical models of seismicity. As a particular case, we explore the branching process approach simplified in the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model. We evaluate the empirical spatio-temporal kernel of the model and investigate the physical origins of triggering. Our analysis of the focal mechanisms implies that the occurrence of the empirical laws extends well beyond purely frictional sliding events, in contrast to what is often assumed.

High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Tai-Liang; Cheng, Ching-Hsue; Teoh, Hia-Jong

2008-02-01

Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

On the Land-Ocean Contrast of Tropical Convection and Microphysics Statistics Derived from TRMM Satellite Signals and Global Storm-Resolving Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matsui, Toshihisa; Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Satoh, Masaki; Hashino, Tempei; Kubota, Takuji

2016-01-01

A 14-year climatology of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) collocated multi-sensor signal statistics reveal a distinct land-ocean contrast as well as geographical variability of precipitation type, intensity, and microphysics. Microphysics information inferred from the TRMM precipitation radar and Microwave Imager (TMI) show a large land-ocean contrast for the deep category, suggesting continental convective vigor. Over land, TRMM shows higher echo-top heights and larger maximum echoes, suggesting taller storms and more intense precipitation, as well as larger microwave scattering, suggesting the presence of morelarger frozen convective hydrometeors. This strong land-ocean contrast in deep convection is invariant over seasonal and multi-year time-scales. Consequently, relatively short-term simulations from two global storm-resolving models can be evaluated in terms of their land-ocean statistics using the TRMM Triple-sensor Three-step Evaluation via a satellite simulator. The models evaluated are the NASA Multi-scale Modeling Framework (MMF) and the Non-hydrostatic Icosahedral Cloud Atmospheric Model (NICAM). While both simulations can represent convective land-ocean contrasts in warm precipitation to some extent, near-surface conditions over land are relatively moisture in NICAM than MMF, which appears to be the key driver in the divergent warm precipitation results between the two models. Both the MMF and NICAM produced similar frequencies of large CAPE between land and ocean. The dry MMF boundary layer enhanced microwave scattering signals over land, but only NICAM had an enhanced deep convection frequency over land. Neither model could reproduce a realistic land-ocean contrast in in deep convective precipitation microphysics. A realistic contrast between land and ocean remains an issue in global storm-resolving modeling.

How Well Can We Detect Lineage-Specific Diversification-Rate Shifts? A Simulation Study of Sequential AIC Methods.

PubMed

May, Michael R; Moore, Brian R

2016-11-01

Evolutionary biologists have long been fascinated by the extreme differences in species numbers across branches of the Tree of Life. This has motivated the development of statistical methods for detecting shifts in the rate of lineage diversification across the branches of phylogenic trees. One of the most frequently used methods, MEDUSA, explores a set of diversification-rate models, where each model assigns branches of the phylogeny to a set of diversification-rate categories. Each model is first fit to the data, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is then used to identify the optimal diversification model. Surprisingly, the statistical behavior of this popular method is uncharacterized, which is a concern in light of: (1) the poor performance of the AIC as a means of choosing among models in other phylogenetic contexts; (2) the ad hoc algorithm used to visit diversification models, and; (3) errors that we reveal in the likelihood function used to fit diversification models to the phylogenetic data. Here, we perform an extensive simulation study demonstrating that MEDUSA (1) has a high false-discovery rate (on average, spurious diversification-rate shifts are identified [Formula: see text] of the time), and (2) provides biased estimates of diversification-rate parameters. Understanding the statistical behavior of MEDUSA is critical both to empirical researchers-in order to clarify whether these methods can make reliable inferences from empirical datasets-and to theoretical biologists-in order to clarify the specific problems that need to be solved in order to develop more reliable approaches for detecting shifts in the rate of lineage diversification. [Akaike information criterion; extinction; lineage-specific diversification rates; phylogenetic model selection; speciation.]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

How Well Can We Detect Lineage-Specific Diversification-Rate Shifts? A Simulation Study of Sequential AIC Methods

PubMed Central

May, Michael R.; Moore, Brian R.

2016-01-01

Evolutionary biologists have long been fascinated by the extreme differences in species numbers across branches of the Tree of Life. This has motivated the development of statistical methods for detecting shifts in the rate of lineage diversification across the branches of phylogenic trees. One of the most frequently used methods, MEDUSA, explores a set of diversification-rate models, where each model assigns branches of the phylogeny to a set of diversification-rate categories. Each model is first fit to the data, and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is then used to identify the optimal diversification model. Surprisingly, the statistical behavior of this popular method is uncharacterized, which is a concern in light of: (1) the poor performance of the AIC as a means of choosing among models in other phylogenetic contexts; (2) the ad hoc algorithm used to visit diversification models, and; (3) errors that we reveal in the likelihood function used to fit diversification models to the phylogenetic data. Here, we perform an extensive simulation study demonstrating that MEDUSA (1) has a high false-discovery rate (on average, spurious diversification-rate shifts are identified ≈30% of the time), and (2) provides biased estimates of diversification-rate parameters. Understanding the statistical behavior of MEDUSA is critical both to empirical researchers—in order to clarify whether these methods can make reliable inferences from empirical datasets—and to theoretical biologists—in order to clarify the specific problems that need to be solved in order to develop more reliable approaches for detecting shifts in the rate of lineage diversification. [Akaike information criterion; extinction; lineage-specific diversification rates; phylogenetic model selection; speciation.] PMID:27037081

Multivariate analysis of fears in dental phobic patients according to a reduced FSS-II scale.

PubMed

Hakeberg, M; Gustafsson, J E; Berggren, U; Carlsson, S G

1995-10-01

This study analyzed and assessed dimensions of a questionnaire developed to measure general fears and phobias. A previous factor analysis among 109 dental phobics had revealed a five-factor structure with 22 items and an explained total variance of 54%. The present study analyzed the same material using a multivariate statistical procedure (LISREL) to reveal structural latent variables. The LISREL analysis, based on the correlation matrix, yielded a chi-square of 216.6 with 195 degrees of freedom (P = 0.138) and showed a model with seven latent variables. One was a general fear factor correlated to all 22 items. The other six factors concerned "Illness & Death" (5 items), "Failures & Embarrassment" (5 items), "Social situations" (5 items), "Physical injuries" (4 items), "Animals & Natural phenomena" (4 items). One item (opposite sex) was included in both "Failures & Embarrassment" and "Social situations". The last factor, "Social interaction", combined all the items in "Failures & Embarrassment" and "Social situations" (9 items). In conclusion, this multivariate statistical analysis (LISREL) revealed and confirmed a factor structure similar to our previous study, but added two important dimensions not shown with a traditional factor analysis. This reduced FSS-II version measures general fears and phobias and may be used on a routine clinical basis as well as in dental phobia research.

Fear and loathing: undergraduate nursing students' experiences of a mandatory course in applied statistics.

PubMed

Hagen, Brad; Awosoga, Oluwagbohunmi A; Kellett, Peter; Damgaard, Marie

2013-04-23

This article describes the results of a qualitative research study evaluating nursing students' experiences of a mandatory course in applied statistics, and the perceived effectiveness of teaching methods implemented during the course. Fifteen nursing students in the third year of a four-year baccalaureate program in nursing participated in focus groups before and after taking the mandatory course in statistics. The interviews were transcribed and analyzed using content analysis to reveal four major themes: (i) "one of those courses you throw out?," (ii) "numbers and terrifying equations," (iii) "first aid for statistics casualties," and (iv) "re-thinking curriculum." Overall, the data revealed that although nursing students initially enter statistics courses with considerable skepticism, fear, and anxiety, there are a number of concrete actions statistics instructors can take to reduce student fear and increase the perceived relevance of courses in statistics.

[Mathematical modeling for conditionality of cardiovascular disease by housing conditions].

PubMed

Meshkov, N A

2014-01-01

There was studied the influence of living conditions (housing area per capita, availability of housing water supply, sewerage and central heating) on the morbidity of the cardiovascular diseases in child and adult population. With the method of regression analysis the morbidity rate was established to significantly decrease with the increase in the area of housing, constructed models are statistically significant, respectively, p = 0.01 and p = 0.02. There was revealed the relationship of the morbidity rate of cardiovascular diseases in children and adults with the supply with housing central heating (p = 0.02 and p = 0.009).

Structural Models that Manage IT Portfolio Affecting Business Value of Enterprise Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamogawa, Takaaki

This paper examines the structural relationships between Information Technology (IT) governance and Enterprise Architecture (EA), with the objective of enhancing business value in the enterprise society. Structural models consisting of four related hypotheses reveal the relationship between IT governance and EA in the improvement of business values. We statistically examined the hypotheses by analyzing validated questionnaire items from respondents within firms listed on the Japanese stock exchange who were qualified to answer them. We concluded that firms which have organizational ability controlled by IT governance are more likely to deliver business value based on IT portfolio management.

Landau-Zener extension of the Tavis-Cummings model: Structure of the solution

DOE PAGES

Sun, Chen; Sinitsyn, Nikolai A.

2016-09-07

We explore the recently discovered solution of the driven Tavis-Cummings model (DTCM). It describes interaction of an arbitrary number of two-level systems with a bosonic mode that has linearly time-dependent frequency. We derive compact and tractable expressions for transition probabilities in terms of the well-known special functions. In this form, our formulas are suitable for fast numerical calculations and analytical approximations. As an application, we obtain the semiclassical limit of the exact solution and compare it to prior approximations. Furthermore, we also reveal connection between DTCM and q-deformed binomial statistics.

Nonclassical light revealed by the joint statistics of simultaneous measurements.

PubMed

Luis, Alfredo

2016-04-15

Nonclassicality cannot be a single-observable property, since the statistics of any quantum observable is compatible with classical physics. We develop a general procedure to reveal nonclassical behavior of light states from the joint statistics arising in the practical measurement of multiple observables. Beside embracing previous approaches, this protocol can disclose nonclassical features for standard examples of classical-like behavior, such as SU(2) and Glauber coherent states. When combined with other criteria, this would imply that every light state is nonclassical.

Polyphenolic, polysaccharide and oligosaccharide composition of Tempranillo red wines and their relationship with the perceived astringency.

PubMed

Quijada-Morín, Natalia; Williams, Pascale; Rivas-Gonzalo, Julián C; Doco, Thierry; Escribano-Bailón, M Teresa

2014-07-01

The influence of the proanthocyanidic, polysaccharide and oligosaccharide composition on astringency perception of Tempranillo wines has been evaluated. Statistical analyses revealed the existence of relationships between chemical composition and perceived astringency. Proanthocyanidic subunit distribution had the strongest contribution to the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. Polysaccharide families showed clear opposition to astringency perception according to principal component analysis (PCA) results, being stronger for mannoproteins and rhamnogalacturonan-II (RG-II), but only Polysaccharides Rich in Arabinose and Galactose (PRAGs) were considered in the final fitted MLR model, which explained 96.8% of the variability observed in the data. Oligosaccharides did not show a clear opposition, revealing that structure and size of carbohydrates are important for astringency perception. Mannose and galactose residues in the oligosaccharide fraction are positively related to astringency perception, probably because its presence is consequence of the degradation of polysaccharides. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) model to address data dispersion on positron emission tomography.

PubMed

Santarelli, Maria Filomena; Della Latta, Daniele; Scipioni, Michele; Positano, Vincenzo; Landini, Luigi

2016-10-01

Positron emission tomography (PET) in medicine exploits the properties of positron-emitting unstable nuclei. The pairs of γ- rays emitted after annihilation are revealed by coincidence detectors and stored as projections in a sinogram. It is well known that radioactive decay follows a Poisson distribution; however, deviation from Poisson statistics occurs on PET projection data prior to reconstruction due to physical effects, measurement errors, correction of deadtime, scatter, and random coincidences. A model that describes the statistical behavior of measured and corrected PET data can aid in understanding the statistical nature of the data: it is a prerequisite to develop efficient reconstruction and processing methods and to reduce noise. The deviation from Poisson statistics in PET data could be described by the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson (CMP) distribution model, which is characterized by the centring parameter λ and the dispersion parameter ν, the latter quantifying the deviation from a Poisson distribution model. In particular, the parameter ν allows quantifying over-dispersion (ν<1) or under-dispersion (ν>1) of data. A simple and efficient method for λ and ν parameters estimation is introduced and assessed using Monte Carlo simulation for a wide range of activity values. The application of the method to simulated and experimental PET phantom data demonstrated that the CMP distribution parameters could detect deviation from the Poisson distribution both in raw and corrected PET data. It may be usefully implemented in image reconstruction algorithms and quantitative PET data analysis, especially in low counting emission data, as in dynamic PET data, where the method demonstrated the best accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Genome-Wide Association Analysis Reveals Epistatic Cancellation of Additive Genetic Variance for Root Length in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Lachowiec, Jennifer; Shen, Xia; Queitsch, Christine; Carlborg, Örjan

2015-01-01

Efforts to identify loci underlying complex traits generally assume that most genetic variance is additive. Here, we examined the genetics of Arabidopsis thaliana root length and found that the genomic narrow-sense heritability for this trait in the examined population was statistically zero. The low amount of additive genetic variance that could be captured by the genome-wide genotypes likely explains why no associations to root length could be found using standard additive-model-based genome-wide association (GWA) approaches. However, as the broad-sense heritability for root length was significantly larger, and primarily due to epistasis, we also performed an epistatic GWA analysis to map loci contributing to the epistatic genetic variance. Four interacting pairs of loci were revealed, involving seven chromosomal loci that passed a standard multiple-testing corrected significance threshold. The genotype-phenotype maps for these pairs revealed epistasis that cancelled out the additive genetic variance, explaining why these loci were not detected in the additive GWA analysis. Small population sizes, such as in our experiment, increase the risk of identifying false epistatic interactions due to testing for associations with very large numbers of multi-marker genotypes in few phenotyped individuals. Therefore, we estimated the false-positive risk using a new statistical approach that suggested half of the associated pairs to be true positive associations. Our experimental evaluation of candidate genes within the seven associated loci suggests that this estimate is conservative; we identified functional candidate genes that affected root development in four loci that were part of three of the pairs. The statistical epistatic analyses were thus indispensable for confirming known, and identifying new, candidate genes for root length in this population of wild-collected A. thaliana accessions. We also illustrate how epistatic cancellation of the additive genetic variance explains the insignificant narrow-sense and significant broad-sense heritability by using a combination of careful statistical epistatic analyses and functional genetic experiments.

Linking Field and Satellite Observations to Reveal Differences in Single vs. Double-Cropped Soybean Yields in Central Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeffries, G. R.; Cohn, A.

2016-12-01

Soy-corn double cropping (DC) has been widely adopted in Central Brazil alongside single cropped (SC) soybean production. DC involves different cropping calendars, soy varieties, and may be associated with different crop yield patterns and volatility than SC. Study of the performance of the region's agriculture in a changing climate depends on tracking differences in the productivity of SC vs. DC, but has been limited by crop yield data that conflate the two systems. We predicted SC and DC yields across Central Brazil, drawing on field observations and remotely sensed data. We first modeled field yield estimates as a function of remotely sensed DC status and vegetation index (VI) metrics, and other management and biophysical factors. We then used the statistical model estimated to predict SC and DC soybean yields at each 500 m2 grid cell of Central Brazil for harvest years 2001 - 2015. The yield estimation model was constructed using 1) a repeated cross-sectional survey of soybean yields and management factors for years 2007-2015, 2) a custom agricultural land cover classification dataset which assimilates earlier datasets for the region, and 3) 500m 8-day MODIS image composites used to calculate the wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVI) and derivative metrics such as area under the curve for WDRVI values in critical crop development periods. A statistical yield estimation model which primarily entails WDRVI metrics, DC status, and spatial fixed effects was developed on a subset of the yield dataset. Model validation was conducted by predicting previously withheld yield records, and then assessing error and goodness-of-fit for predicted values with metrics including root mean squared error (RMSE), mean squared error (MSE), and R2. We found a statistical yield estimation model which incorporates WDRVI and DC status to be way to estimate crop yields over the region. Statistical properties of the resulting gridded yield dataset may be valuable for understanding linkages between crop yields, farm management factors, and climate.

Impact of South American heroin on the US heroin market 1993-2004.

PubMed

Ciccarone, Daniel; Unick, George J; Kraus, Allison

2009-09-01

The past two decades have seen an increase in heroin-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. We report on trends in US heroin retail price and purity, including the effect of entry of Colombian-sourced heroin on the US heroin market. The average standardized price ($/mg-pure) and purity (% by weight) of heroin from 1993 to 2004 was from obtained from US Drug Enforcement Agency retail purchase data for 20 metropolitan statistical areas. Univariate statistics, robust Ordinary Least Squares regression and mixed fixed and random effect growth curve models were used to predict the price and purity data in each metropolitan statistical area over time. Over the 12 study years, heroin price decreased 62%. The median percentage of all heroin samples that are of South American origin increased an absolute 7% per year. Multivariate models suggest percent South American heroin is a significant predictor of lower heroin price and higher purity adjusting for time and demographics. These analyses reveal trends to historically low-cost heroin in many US cities. These changes correspond to the entrance into and rapid domination of the US heroin market by Colombian-sourced heroin. The implications of these changes are discussed.

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata.

PubMed

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

A generalized regression model of arsenic variations in the shallow groundwater of Bangladesh

PubMed Central

Taylor, Richard G.; Chandler, Richard E.

2015-01-01

Abstract Localized studies of arsenic (As) in Bangladesh have reached disparate conclusions regarding the impact of irrigation‐induced recharge on As concentrations in shallow (≤50 m below ground level) groundwater. We construct generalized regression models (GRMs) to describe observed spatial variations in As concentrations in shallow groundwater both (i) nationally, and (ii) regionally within Holocene deposits where As concentrations in groundwater are generally high (>10 μg L−1). At these scales, the GRMs reveal statistically significant inverse associations between observed As concentrations and two covariates: (1) hydraulic conductivity of the shallow aquifer and (2) net increase in mean recharge between predeveloped and developed groundwater‐fed irrigation periods. Further, the GRMs show that the spatial variation of groundwater As concentrations is well explained by not only surface geology but also statistical interactions (i.e., combined effects) between surface geology and mean groundwater recharge, thickness of surficial silt and clay, and well depth. Net increases in recharge result from intensive groundwater abstraction for irrigation, which induces additional recharge where it is enabled by a permeable surface geology. Collectively, these statistical associations indicate that irrigation‐induced recharge serves to flush mobile As from shallow groundwater. PMID:27524841

Emergent dynamic structures and statistical law in spherical lattice gas automata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Zhenwei

2017-12-01

Various lattice gas automata have been proposed in the past decades to simulate physics and address a host of problems on collective dynamics arising in diverse fields. In this work, we employ the lattice gas model defined on the sphere to investigate the curvature-driven dynamic structures and analyze the statistical behaviors in equilibrium. Under the simple propagation and collision rules, we show that the uniform collective movement of the particles on the sphere is geometrically frustrated, leading to several nonequilibrium dynamic structures not found in the planar lattice, such as the emergent bubble and vortex structures. With the accumulation of the collision effect, the system ultimately reaches equilibrium in the sense that the distribution of the coarse-grained speed approaches the two-dimensional Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution despite the population fluctuations in the coarse-grained cells. The emergent regularity in the statistical behavior of the system is rationalized by mapping our system to a generalized random walk model. This work demonstrates the capability of the spherical lattice gas automaton in revealing the lattice-guided dynamic structures and simulating the equilibrium physics. It suggests the promising possibility of using lattice gas automata defined on various curved surfaces to explore geometrically driven nonequilibrium physics.

Using Social Network Analysis to Better Understand Compulsive Exercise Behavior Among a Sample of Sorority Members.

PubMed

Patterson, Megan S; Goodson, Patricia

2017-05-01

Compulsive exercise, a form of unhealthy exercise often associated with prioritizing exercise and feeling guilty when exercise is missed, is a common precursor to and symptom of eating disorders. College-aged women are at high risk of exercising compulsively compared with other groups. Social network analysis (SNA) is a theoretical perspective and methodology allowing researchers to observe the effects of relational dynamics on the behaviors of people. SNA was used to assess the relationship between compulsive exercise and body dissatisfaction, physical activity, and network variables. Descriptive statistics were conducted using SPSS, and quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) analyses were conducted using UCINET. QAP regression analysis revealed a statistically significant model (R 2 = .375, P < .0001) predicting compulsive exercise behavior. Physical activity, body dissatisfaction, and network variables were statistically significant predictor variables in the QAP regression model. In our sample, women who are connected to "important" or "powerful" people in their network are likely to have higher compulsive exercise scores. This result provides healthcare practitioners key target points for intervention within similar groups of women. For scholars researching eating disorders and associated behaviors, this study supports looking into group dynamics and network structure in conjunction with body dissatisfaction and exercise frequency.

Analog-Based Postprocessing of Navigation-Related Hydrological Ensemble Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemri, S.; Klein, B.

2017-11-01

Inland waterway transport benefits from probabilistic forecasts of water levels as they allow to optimize the ship load and, hence, to minimize the transport costs. Probabilistic state-of-the-art hydrologic ensemble forecasts inherit biases and dispersion errors from the atmospheric ensemble forecasts they are driven with. The use of statistical postprocessing techniques like ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) allows for a reduction of these systematic errors by fitting a statistical model based on training data. In this study, training periods for EMOS are selected based on forecast analogs, i.e., historical forecasts that are similar to the forecast to be verified. Due to the strong autocorrelation of water levels, forecast analogs have to be selected based on entire forecast hydrographs in order to guarantee similar hydrograph shapes. Custom-tailored measures of similarity for forecast hydrographs comprise hydrological series distance (SD), the hydrological matching algorithm (HMA), and dynamic time warping (DTW). Verification against observations reveals that EMOS forecasts for water level at three gauges along the river Rhine with training periods selected based on SD, HMA, and DTW compare favorably with reference EMOS forecasts, which are based on either seasonal training periods or on training periods obtained by dividing the hydrological forecast trajectories into runoff regimes.

Firefly algorithm versus genetic algorithm as powerful variable selection tools and their effect on different multivariate calibration models in spectroscopy: A comparative study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attia, Khalid A. M.; Nassar, Mohammed W. I.; El-Zeiny, Mohamed B.; Serag, Ahmed

2017-01-01

For the first time, a new variable selection method based on swarm intelligence namely firefly algorithm is coupled with three different multivariate calibration models namely, concentration residual augmented classical least squares, artificial neural network and support vector regression in UV spectral data. A comparative study between the firefly algorithm and the well-known genetic algorithm was developed. The discussion revealed the superiority of using this new powerful algorithm over the well-known genetic algorithm. Moreover, different statistical tests were performed and no significant differences were found between all the models regarding their predictabilities. This ensures that simpler and faster models were obtained without any deterioration of the quality of the calibration.

Origin of the spike-timing-dependent plasticity rule

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Myoung Won; Choi, M. Y.

2016-08-01

A biological synapse changes its efficacy depending on the difference between pre- and post-synaptic spike timings. Formulating spike-timing-dependent interactions in terms of the path integral, we establish a neural-network model, which makes it possible to predict relevant quantities rigorously by means of standard methods in statistical mechanics and field theory. In particular, the biological synaptic plasticity rule is shown to emerge as the optimal form for minimizing the free energy. It is further revealed that maximization of the entropy of neural activities gives rise to the competitive behavior of biological learning. This demonstrates that statistical mechanics helps to understand rigorously key characteristic behaviors of a neural network, thus providing the possibility of physics serving as a useful and relevant framework for probing life.

Negative affect is associated with alcohol, but not cigarette use in heavy drinking smokers.

PubMed

Bujarski, Spencer; Ray, Lara A

2014-12-01

Co-use of alcohol and cigarettes is highly prevalent, and heavy drinking smokers represent a large and difficult-to-treat subgroup of smokers. Negative affect, including anxiety and depressive symptomatology, has been associated with both cigarette and alcohol use independently, but less is known about the role of negative affect in heavy drinking smokers. Furthermore, while some studies have shown negative affect to precede substance use, a precise biobehavioral mechanism has not been established. The aims of the present study were twofold. First, to test whether negative affect is associated with alcohol and cigarette use in a large community sample of heavy drinking smokers (n=461). And second, to examine craving as a plausible statistical mediator of the association between negative affect and alcohol and/or cigarette use. Hypothesis testing was conducted using a structural equation modeling approach with cross-sectional data. Analysis revealed a significant main effect of negative affect on alcohol use (β=0.210, p<0.05), but not cigarette use (β=0.131, p>0.10) in this sample. Mediational analysis revealed that alcohol craving was a full statistical mediator of this association (p<0.05), such that there was no direct association between negative affect and alcohol use after accounting for alcohol craving. These results are consistent with a negative reinforcement and relief craving models of alcohol use insofar as the experience of negative affect was associated with increased alcohol use, and the relationship was statistically mediated by alcohol craving, presumably to alleviate negative affect. Further longitudinal or experimental studies are warranted to enhance the causal inferences of this mediated effect. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network analysis of named entity co-occurrences in written texts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amancio, Diego Raphael

2016-06-01

The use of methods borrowed from statistics and physics to analyze written texts has allowed the discovery of unprecedent patterns of human behavior and cognition by establishing links between models features and language structure. While current models have been useful to unveil patterns via analysis of syntactical and semantical networks, only a few works have probed the relevance of investigating the structure arising from the relationship between relevant entities such as characters, locations and organizations. In this study, we represent entities appearing in the same context as a co-occurrence network, where links are established according to a null model based on random, shuffled texts. Computational simulations performed in novels revealed that the proposed model displays interesting topological features, such as the small world feature, characterized by high values of clustering coefficient. The effectiveness of our model was verified in a practical pattern recognition task in real networks. When compared with traditional word adjacency networks, our model displayed optimized results in identifying unknown references in texts. Because the proposed representation plays a complementary role in characterizing unstructured documents via topological analysis of named entities, we believe that it could be useful to improve the characterization of written texts (and related systems), specially if combined with traditional approaches based on statistical and deeper paradigms.

Resolving Structural Variability in Network Models and the Brain

PubMed Central

Klimm, Florian; Bassett, Danielle S.; Carlson, Jean M.; Mucha, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Large-scale white matter pathways crisscrossing the cortex create a complex pattern of connectivity that underlies human cognitive function. Generative mechanisms for this architecture have been difficult to identify in part because little is known in general about mechanistic drivers of structured networks. Here we contrast network properties derived from diffusion spectrum imaging data of the human brain with 13 synthetic network models chosen to probe the roles of physical network embedding and temporal network growth. We characterize both the empirical and synthetic networks using familiar graph metrics, but presented here in a more complete statistical form, as scatter plots and distributions, to reveal the full range of variability of each measure across scales in the network. We focus specifically on the degree distribution, degree assortativity, hierarchy, topological Rentian scaling, and topological fractal scaling—in addition to several summary statistics, including the mean clustering coefficient, the shortest path-length, and the network diameter. The models are investigated in a progressive, branching sequence, aimed at capturing different elements thought to be important in the brain, and range from simple random and regular networks, to models that incorporate specific growth rules and constraints. We find that synthetic models that constrain the network nodes to be physically embedded in anatomical brain regions tend to produce distributions that are most similar to the corresponding measurements for the brain. We also find that network models hardcoded to display one network property (e.g., assortativity) do not in general simultaneously display a second (e.g., hierarchy). This relative independence of network properties suggests that multiple neurobiological mechanisms might be at play in the development of human brain network architecture. Together, the network models that we develop and employ provide a potentially useful starting point for the statistical inference of brain network structure from neuroimaging data. PMID:24675546

Nonparametric statistical modeling of binary star separations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heacox, William D.; Gathright, John

1994-01-01

We develop a comprehensive statistical model for the distribution of observed separations in binary star systems, in terms of distributions of orbital elements, projection effects, and distances to systems. We use this model to derive several diagnostics for estimating the completeness of imaging searches for stellar companions, and the underlying stellar multiplicities. In application to recent imaging searches for low-luminosity companions to nearby M dwarf stars, and for companions to young stars in nearby star-forming regions, our analyses reveal substantial uncertainty in estimates of stellar multiplicity. For binary stars with late-type dwarf companions, semimajor axes appear to be distributed approximately as a(exp -1) for values ranging from about one to several thousand astronomical units. About one-quarter of the companions to field F and G dwarf stars have semimajor axes less than 1 AU, and about 15% lie beyond 1000 AU. The geometric efficiency (fraction of companions imaged onto the detector) of imaging searches is nearly independent of distances to program stars and orbital eccentricities, and varies only slowly with detector spatial limitations.

The Effect of Temperature on the Electricity Demand: An Empirical Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Kim, I. G.; Park, K. J.; Yoo, S. H.

2015-12-01

This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function in Korea with quarterly data of average temperature, GDP and electricity price over the period 2005-2013. We apply lagged dependent variable model and ordinary least square method as a robust approach to estimating the parameters of the electricity demand function. The results show that short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.569 and 0.631 respectively. They are statistically significant at the 1% level. Moreover, long-run income and price elasticities are estimated to be 1.589 and -1.433 respectively. Both of results reveal that the demand for electricity demand is about 15.2℃. It is shown that power of explanation and goodness-of-fit statistics are improved in the use of the lagged dependent variable model rather than conventional model. Acknowledgements: This research was carried out as a part of "Development and application of technology for weather forecast" supported by the 2015 National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) in the Korea Meteorological Administration.

FIT: statistical modeling tool for transcriptome dynamics under fluctuating field conditions

PubMed Central

Iwayama, Koji; Aisaka, Yuri; Kutsuna, Natsumaro

2017-01-01

Abstract Motivation: Considerable attention has been given to the quantification of environmental effects on organisms. In natural conditions, environmental factors are continuously changing in a complex manner. To reveal the effects of such environmental variations on organisms, transcriptome data in field environments have been collected and analyzed. Nagano et al. proposed a model that describes the relationship between transcriptomic variation and environmental conditions and demonstrated the capability to predict transcriptome variation in rice plants. However, the computational cost of parameter optimization has prevented its wide application. Results: We propose a new statistical model and efficient parameter optimization based on the previous study. We developed and released FIT, an R package that offers functions for parameter optimization and transcriptome prediction. The proposed method achieves comparable or better prediction performance within a shorter computational time than the previous method. The package will facilitate the study of the environmental effects on transcriptomic variation in field conditions. Availability and Implementation: Freely available from CRAN (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/FIT/). Contact: anagano@agr.ryukoku.ac.jp Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online PMID:28158396

Diagnosis of students' ability in a statistical course based on Rasch probabilistic outcome

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmud, Zamalia; Ramli, Wan Syahira Wan; Sapri, Shamsiah; Ahmad, Sanizah

2017-06-01

Measuring students' ability and performance are important in assessing how well students have learned and mastered the statistical courses. Any improvement in learning will depend on the student's approaches to learning, which are relevant to some factors of learning, namely assessment methods carrying out tasks consisting of quizzes, tests, assignment and final examination. This study has attempted an alternative approach to measure students' ability in an undergraduate statistical course based on the Rasch probabilistic model. Firstly, this study aims to explore the learning outcome patterns of students in a statistics course (Applied Probability and Statistics) based on an Entrance-Exit survey. This is followed by investigating students' perceived learning ability based on four Course Learning Outcomes (CLOs) and students' actual learning ability based on their final examination scores. Rasch analysis revealed that students perceived themselves as lacking the ability to understand about 95% of the statistics concepts at the beginning of the class but eventually they had a good understanding at the end of the 14 weeks class. In terms of students' performance in their final examination, their ability in understanding the topics varies at different probability values given the ability of the students and difficulty of the questions. Majority found the probability and counting rules topic to be the most difficult to learn.

QSAR modeling for anti-human African trypanosomiasis activity of substituted 2-Phenylimidazopyridines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masand, Vijay H.; El-Sayed, Nahed N. E.; Mahajan, Devidas T.; Mercader, Andrew G.; Alafeefy, Ahmed M.; Shibi, I. G.

2017-02-01

In the present work, sixty substituted 2-Phenylimidazopyridines previously reported with potent anti-human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) activity were selected to build genetic algorithm (GA) based QSAR models to determine the structural features that have significant correlation with the activity. Multiple QSAR models were built using easily interpretable descriptors that are directly associated with the presence or the absence of a structural scaffold, or a specific atom. All the QSAR models have been thoroughly validated according to the OECD principles. All the QSAR models are statistically very robust (R2 = 0.80-0.87) with high external predictive ability (CCCex = 0.81-0.92). The QSAR analysis reveals that the HAT activity has good correlation with the presence of five membered rings in the molecule.

Non-Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics of the spin-forbidden reaction O(3P) + CO(X 1Σ+) → CO2(tilde X{}^1Σ _g^ +)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasper, Ahren W.; Dawes, Richard

2013-10-01

The lowest-energy singlet (1 1A') and two lowest-energy triplet (1 3A' and 1 3A″) electronic states of CO2 are characterized using dynamically weighted multireference configuration interaction (dw-MRCI+Q) electronic structure theory calculations extrapolated to the complete basis set (CBS) limit. Global analytic representations of the dw-MRCI+Q/CBS singlet and triplet surfaces and of their CASSCF/aug-cc-pVQZ spin-orbit coupling surfaces are obtained via the interpolated moving least squares (IMLS) semiautomated surface fitting method. The spin-forbidden kinetics of the title reaction is calculated using the coupled IMLS surfaces and coherent switches with decay of mixing non-Born-Oppenheimer molecular dynamics. The calculated spin-forbidden association rate coefficient (corresponding to the high pressure limit of the rate coefficient) is 7-35 times larger at 1000-5000 K than the rate coefficient used in many detailed chemical models of combustion. A dynamical analysis of the multistate trajectories is presented. The trajectory calculations reveal direct (nonstatistical) and indirect (statistical) spin-forbidden reaction mechanisms and may be used to test the suitability of transition-state-theory-like statistical methods for spin-forbidden kinetics. Specifically, we consider the appropriateness of the "double passage" approximation, of assuming statistical distributions of seam crossings, and of applications of the unified statistical model for spin-forbidden reactions.

Identification of statistically independent climatic pattern in GRACE and hydrological model data over West-Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Forootan, E.; Eicker, A.; Hoffmann-Dobrev, H.

2012-04-01

West-African countries have been exposed to changes in rainfall patterns over the last decades, including a significant negative trend. This causes adverse effects on water resources, for instance reduced freshwater availability, and changes in the frequency, duration and magnitude of droughts and floods. Extracting the main patterns of water storage change in West Africa from remote sensing and linking them to climate variability, is therefore an essential step to understand the hydrological aspects of the region. In this study, the higher order statistical method of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) is employed to extract statistically independent water storage patterns from monthly Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE), from the WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) and from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products over West Africa, for the period 2002-2012. Then, to reveal the influences of climatic teleconnections on the individual patterns, these results were correlated to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) indices. To study the predictability of water storage changes, advanced statistical methods were applied on the main independent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans for the period 2002-2012 and the ICA results. Our results show a water storage decrease over the coastal regions of West Africa (including Sierra Leone, Liberia, Togo and Nigeria), associated with rainfall decrease. The comparison between GRACE estimations and WGHM results indicates some inconsistencies that underline the importance of forcing data for hydrological modeling of West Africa. Keywords: West Africa; GRACE-derived water storage; ICA; ENSO; IOD

Statistical power and effect sizes of depression research in Japan.

PubMed

Okumura, Yasuyuki; Sakamoto, Shinji

2011-06-01

Few studies have been conducted on the rationales for using interpretive guidelines for effect size, and most of the previous statistical power surveys have covered broad research domains. The present study aimed to estimate the statistical power and to obtain realistic target effect sizes of depression research in Japan. We systematically reviewed 18 leading journals of psychiatry and psychology in Japan and identified 974 depression studies that were mentioned in 935 articles published between 1990 and 2006. In 392 studies, logistic regression analyses revealed that using clinical populations was independently associated with being a statistical power of <0.80 (odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 2.9-12.0) and of <0.50 (odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval 2.3-10.5). Of the studies using clinical populations, 80% did not achieve a power of 0.80 or more, and 44% did not achieve a power of 0.50 or more to detect the medium population effect sizes. A predictive model for the proportion of variance explained was developed using a linear mixed-effects model. The model was then used to obtain realistic target effect sizes in defined study characteristics. In the face of a real difference or correlation in population, many depression researchers are less likely to give a valid result than simply tossing a coin. It is important to educate depression researchers in order to enable them to conduct an a priori power analysis. © 2011 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2011 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

Fecal indicator organism modeling and microbial source tracking in environmental waters: Chapter 3.4.6

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nevers, Meredith; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara; Phanikumar, Mantha S.; Whitman, Richard L.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models have been widely applied to surface waters to estimate rates of settling, resuspension, flow, dispersion, and advection in order to calculate movement of particles that influence water quality. Of particular interest are the movement, survival, and persistence of microbial pathogens or their surrogates, which may contaminate recreational water, drinking water, or shellfish. Most models devoted to microbial water quality have been focused on fecal indicator organisms (FIO), which act as a surrogate for pathogens and viruses. Process-based modeling and statistical modeling have been used to track contamination events to source and to predict future events. The use of these two types of models require different levels of expertise and input; process-based models rely on theoretical physical constructs to explain present conditions and biological distribution while data-based, statistical models use extant paired data to do the same. The selection of the appropriate model and interpretation of results is critical to proper use of these tools in microbial source tracking. Integration of the modeling approaches could provide insight for tracking and predicting contamination events in real time. A review of modeling efforts reveals that process-based modeling has great promise for microbial source tracking efforts; further, combining the understanding of physical processes influencing FIO contamination developed with process-based models and molecular characterization of the population by gene-based (i.e., biological) or chemical markers may be an effective approach for locating sources and remediating contamination in order to protect human health better.

A model for two-dimensional bursty turbulence in magnetized plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Servidio, Sergio; Primavera, Leonardo; Carbone, Vincenzo

2008-01-15

The nonlinear dynamics of two-dimensional electrostatic interchange modes in a magnetized plasma is investigated through a simple model that replaces the instability mechanism due to magnetic field curvature by an external source of vorticity and mass. Simulations in a cylindrical domain, with a spatially localized and randomized source at the center of the domain, reveal the eruption of mushroom-shaped bursts that propagate radially and are absorbed by the boundaries. Burst sizes and the interburst waiting times exhibit power-law statistics, which indicates long-range interburst correlations, similar to what has been found in sandpile models for avalanching systems. It is shown frommore » the simulations that the dynamics can be characterized by a Yaglom relation for the third-order mixed moment involving the particle number density as a passive scalar and the ExB drift velocity, and hence that the burst phenomenology can be described within the framework of turbulence theory. Statistical features are qualitatively in agreement with experiments of intermittent transport at the edge of plasma devices, and suggest that essential features such as transport can be described by this simple model of bursty turbulence.« less

Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration.

PubMed

Nacher, Jose C; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

2012-05-01

Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

Foreign exchange market data analysis reveals statistical features that predict price movement acceleration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nacher, Jose C.; Ochiai, Tomoshiro

2012-05-01

Increasingly accessible financial data allow researchers to infer market-dynamics-based laws and to propose models that are able to reproduce them. In recent years, several stylized facts have been uncovered. Here we perform an extensive analysis of foreign exchange data that leads to the unveiling of a statistical financial law. First, our findings show that, on average, volatility increases more when the price exceeds the highest (or lowest) value, i.e., breaks the resistance line. We call this the breaking-acceleration effect. Second, our results show that the probability P(T) to break the resistance line in the past time T follows power law in both real data and theoretically simulated data. However, the probability calculated using real data is rather lower than the one obtained using a traditional Black-Scholes (BS) model. Taken together, the present analysis characterizes a different stylized fact of financial markets and shows that the market exceeds a past (historical) extreme price fewer times than expected by the BS model (the resistance effect). However, when the market does, we predict that the average volatility at that time point will be much higher. These findings indicate that any Markovian model does not faithfully capture the market dynamics.

Hierarchical Commensurate and Power Prior Models for Adaptive Incorporation of Historical Information in Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Hobbs, Brian P.; Carlin, Bradley P.; Mandrekar, Sumithra J.; Sargent, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

Summary Bayesian clinical trial designs offer the possibility of a substantially reduced sample size, increased statistical power, and reductions in cost and ethical hazard. However when prior and current information conflict, Bayesian methods can lead to higher than expected Type I error, as well as the possibility of a costlier and lengthier trial. This motivates an investigation of the feasibility of hierarchical Bayesian methods for incorporating historical data that are adaptively robust to prior information that reveals itself to be inconsistent with the accumulating experimental data. In this paper, we present several models that allow for the commensurability of the information in the historical and current data to determine how much historical information is used. A primary tool is elaborating the traditional power prior approach based upon a measure of commensurability for Gaussian data. We compare the frequentist performance of several methods using simulations, and close with an example of a colon cancer trial that illustrates a linear models extension of our adaptive borrowing approach. Our proposed methods produce more precise estimates of the model parameters, in particular conferring statistical significance to the observed reduction in tumor size for the experimental regimen as compared to the control regimen. PMID:21361892

Low order models for uncertainty quantification in acoustic propagation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millet, Christophe

2016-11-01

Long-range sound propagation problems are characterized by both a large number of length scales and a large number of normal modes. In the atmosphere, these modes are confined within waveguides causing the sound to propagate through multiple paths to the receiver. For uncertain atmospheres, the modes are described as random variables. Concise mathematical models and analysis reveal fundamental limitations in classical projection techniques due to different manifestations of the fact that modes that carry small variance can have important effects on the large variance modes. In the present study, we propose a systematic strategy for obtaining statistically accurate low order models. The normal modes are sorted in decreasing Sobol indices using asymptotic expansions, and the relevant modes are extracted using a modified iterative Krylov-based method. The statistics of acoustic signals are computed by decomposing the original pulse into a truncated sum of modal pulses that can be described by a stationary phase method. As the low-order acoustic model preserves the overall structure of waveforms under perturbations of the atmosphere, it can be applied to uncertainty quantification. The result of this study is a new algorithm which applies on the entire phase space of acoustic fields.

Concepts and their dynamics: a quantum-theoretic modeling of human thought.

PubMed

Aerts, Diederik; Gabora, Liane; Sozzo, Sandro

2013-10-01

We analyze different aspects of our quantum modeling approach of human concepts and, more specifically, focus on the quantum effects of contextuality, interference, entanglement, and emergence, illustrating how each of them makes its appearance in specific situations of the dynamics of human concepts and their combinations. We point out the relation of our approach, which is based on an ontology of a concept as an entity in a state changing under influence of a context, with the main traditional concept theories, that is, prototype theory, exemplar theory, and theory theory. We ponder about the question why quantum theory performs so well in its modeling of human concepts, and we shed light on this question by analyzing the role of complex amplitudes, showing how they allow to describe interference in the statistics of measurement outcomes, while in the traditional theories statistics of outcomes originates in classical probability weights, without the possibility of interference. The relevance of complex numbers, the appearance of entanglement, and the role of Fock space in explaining contextual emergence, all as unique features of the quantum modeling, are explicitly revealed in this article by analyzing human concepts and their dynamics. © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Many-body localization of bosons in optical lattices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sierant, Piotr; Zakrzewski, Jakub

2018-04-01

Many-body localization for a system of bosons trapped in a one-dimensional lattice is discussed. Two models that may be realized for cold atoms in optical lattices are considered. The model with a random on-site potential is compared with previously introduced random interactions model. While the origin and character of the disorder in both systems is different they show interesting similar properties. In particular, many-body localization appears for a sufficiently large disorder as verified by a time evolution of initial density wave states as well as using statistical properties of energy levels for small system sizes. Starting with different initial states, we observe that the localization properties are energy-dependent which reveals an inverted many-body localization edge in both systems (that finding is also verified by statistical analysis of energy spectrum). Moreover, we consider computationally challenging regime of transition between many body localized and extended phases where we observe a characteristic algebraic decay of density correlations which may be attributed to subdiffusion (and Griffiths-like regions) in the studied systems. Ergodicity breaking in the disordered Bose–Hubbard models is compared with the slowing-down of the time evolution of the clean system at large interactions.

Local yield stress statistics in model amorphous solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbot, Armand; Lerbinger, Matthias; Hernandez-Garcia, Anier; García-García, Reinaldo; Falk, Michael L.; Vandembroucq, Damien; Patinet, Sylvain

2018-03-01

We develop and extend a method presented by Patinet, Vandembroucq, and Falk [Phys. Rev. Lett. 117, 045501 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.117.045501] to compute the local yield stresses at the atomic scale in model two-dimensional Lennard-Jones glasses produced via differing quench protocols. This technique allows us to sample the plastic rearrangements in a nonperturbative manner for different loading directions on a well-controlled length scale. Plastic activity upon shearing correlates strongly with the locations of low yield stresses in the quenched states. This correlation is higher in more structurally relaxed systems. The distribution of local yield stresses is also shown to strongly depend on the quench protocol: the more relaxed the glass, the higher the local plastic thresholds. Analysis of the magnitude of local plastic relaxations reveals that stress drops follow exponential distributions, justifying the hypothesis of an average characteristic amplitude often conjectured in mesoscopic or continuum models. The amplitude of the local plastic rearrangements increases on average with the yield stress, regardless of the system preparation. The local yield stress varies with the shear orientation tested and strongly correlates with the plastic rearrangement locations when the system is sheared correspondingly. It is thus argued that plastic rearrangements are the consequence of shear transformation zones encoded in the glass structure that possess weak slip planes along different orientations. Finally, we justify the length scale employed in this work and extract the yield threshold statistics as a function of the size of the probing zones. This method makes it possible to derive physically grounded models of plasticity for amorphous materials by directly revealing the relevant details of the shear transformation zones that mediate this process.

Entropy of Vaidya Black Hole on Apparent Horizon with Minimal Length Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Hao; Wu, Bin; Sun, Cheng-yi; Song, Yu; Yue, Rui-hong

2018-03-01

By considering the generalized uncertainty principle, the degrees of freedom near the apparent horizon of Vaidya black hole are calculated with the thin film model. The result shows that a cut-off can be introduced naturally rather than taking by hand. Furthermore, if the minimal length is chosen to be a specific value, the statistical entropy will satisfy the conventional area law at the horizon, which might reveal some deep things of the minimal length.

Entropy of Vaidya Black Hole on Apparent Horizon with Minimal Length Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Hao; Wu, Bin; Sun, Cheng-yi; Song, Yu; Yue, Rui-hong

2018-07-01

By considering the generalized uncertainty principle, the degrees of freedom near the apparent horizon of Vaidya black hole are calculated with the thin film model. The result shows that a cut-off can be introduced naturally rather than taking by hand. Furthermore, if the minimal length is chosen to be a specific value, the statistical entropy will satisfy the conventional area law at the horizon, which might reveal some deep things of the minimal length.

Toward a unified approach to dose-response modeling in ecotoxicology.

PubMed

Ritz, Christian

2010-01-01

This study reviews dose-response models that are used in ecotoxicology. The focus lies on clarification of differences and similarities between models, and as a side effect, their different guises in ecotoxicology are unravelled. A look at frequently used dose-response models reveals major discrepancies, among other things in naming conventions. Therefore, there is a need for a unified view on dose-response modeling in order to improve the understanding of it and to facilitate communication and comparison of findings across studies, thus realizing its full potential. This study attempts to establish a general framework that encompasses most dose-response models that are of interest to ecotoxicologists in practice. The framework includes commonly used models such as the log-logistic and Weibull models, but also features entire suites of models as found in various guidance documents. An outline on how the proposed framework can be implemented in statistical software systems is also provided.

Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

2017-11-01

This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

A reliability study on brain activation during active and passive arm movements supported by an MRI-compatible robot.

PubMed

Estévez, Natalia; Yu, Ningbo; Brügger, Mike; Villiger, Michael; Hepp-Reymond, Marie-Claude; Riener, Robert; Kollias, Spyros

2014-11-01

In neurorehabilitation, longitudinal assessment of arm movement related brain function in patients with motor disability is challenging due to variability in task performance. MRI-compatible robots monitor and control task performance, yielding more reliable evaluation of brain function over time. The main goals of the present study were first to define the brain network activated while performing active and passive elbow movements with an MRI-compatible arm robot (MaRIA) in healthy subjects, and second to test the reproducibility of this activation over time. For the fMRI analysis two models were compared. In model 1 movement onset and duration were included, whereas in model 2 force and range of motion were added to the analysis. Reliability of brain activation was tested with several statistical approaches applied on individual and group activation maps and on summary statistics. The activated network included mainly the primary motor cortex, primary and secondary somatosensory cortex, superior and inferior parietal cortex, medial and lateral premotor regions, and subcortical structures. Reliability analyses revealed robust activation for active movements with both fMRI models and all the statistical methods used. Imposed passive movements also elicited mainly robust brain activation for individual and group activation maps, and reliability was improved by including additional force and range of motion using model 2. These findings demonstrate that the use of robotic devices, such as MaRIA, can be useful to reliably assess arm movement related brain activation in longitudinal studies and may contribute in studies evaluating therapies and brain plasticity following injury in the nervous system.

Statistical bias correction method applied on CMIP5 datasets over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season for climate change applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasanna, V.

2018-01-01

This study makes use of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 climate model output for climate change application studies over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season (JJAS). Bias correction of temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 GCM simulation results with respect to observation is discussed in detail. The non-linear statistical bias correction is a suitable bias correction method for climate change data because it is simple and does not add up artificial uncertainties to the impact assessment of climate change scenarios for climate change application studies (agricultural production changes) in the future. The simple statistical bias correction uses observational constraints on the GCM baseline, and the projected results are scaled with respect to the changing magnitude in future scenarios, varying from one model to the other. Two types of bias correction techniques are shown here: (1) a simple bias correction using a percentile-based quantile-mapping algorithm and (2) a simple but improved bias correction method, a cumulative distribution function (CDF; Weibull distribution function)-based quantile-mapping algorithm. This study shows that the percentile-based quantile mapping method gives results similar to the CDF (Weibull)-based quantile mapping method, and both the methods are comparable. The bias correction is applied on temperature and precipitation variables for present climate and future projected data to make use of it in a simple statistical model to understand the future changes in crop production over the Indian region during the summer monsoon season. In total, 12 CMIP5 models are used for Historical (1901-2005), RCP4.5 (2005-2100), and RCP8.5 (2005-2100) scenarios. The climate index from each CMIP5 model and the observed agricultural yield index over the Indian region are used in a regression model to project the changes in the agricultural yield over India from RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results revealed a better convergence of model projections in the bias corrected data compared to the uncorrected data. The study can be extended to localized regional domains aimed at understanding the changes in the agricultural productivity in the future with an agro-economy or a simple statistical model. The statistical model indicated that the total food grain yield is going to increase over the Indian region in the future, the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 50 kg/ ha for the RCP4.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100, and the increase in the total food grain yield is approximately 90 kg/ha for the RCP8.5 scenario from 2001 until the end of 2100. There are many studies using bias correction techniques, but this study applies the bias correction technique to future climate scenario data from CMIP5 models and applied it to crop statistics to find future crop yield changes over the Indian region.

Planetarium instructional efficacy: A research synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brazell, Bruce D.

The purpose of the current study was to explore the instructional effectiveness of the planetarium in astronomy education using meta-analysis. A review of the literature revealed 46 studies related to planetarium efficacy. However, only 19 of the studies satisfied selection criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Selected studies were then subjected to coding procedures, which extracted information such as subject characteristics, experimental design, and outcome measures. From these data, 24 effect sizes were calculated in the area of student achievement and five effect sizes were determined in the area of student attitudes using reported statistical information. Mean effect sizes were calculated for both the achievement and the attitude distributions. Additionally, each effect size distribution was subjected to homogeneity analysis. The attitude distribution was found to be homogeneous with a mean effect size of -0.09, which was not significant, p = .2535. The achievement distribution was found to be heterogeneous with a statistically significant mean effect size of +0.28, p < .05. Since the achievement distribution was heterogeneous, the analog to the ANOVA procedure was employed to explore variability in this distribution in terms of the coded variables. The analog to the ANOVA procedure revealed that the variability introduced by the coded variables did not fully explain the variability in the achievement distribution beyond subject-level sampling error under a fixed effects model. Therefore, a random effects model analysis was performed which resulted in a mean effect size of +0.18, which was not significant, p = .2363. However, a large random effect variance component was determined indicating that the differences between studies were systematic and yet to be revealed. The findings of this meta-analysis showed that the planetarium has been an effective instructional tool in astronomy education in terms of student achievement. However, the meta-analysis revealed that the planetarium has not been a very effective tool for improving student attitudes towards astronomy.

Generating level-dependent models of cervical and thoracic spinal cord injury: Exploring the interplay of neuroanatomy, physiology, and function.

PubMed

Wilcox, Jared T; Satkunendrarajah, Kajana; Nasirzadeh, Yasmin; Laliberte, Alex M; Lip, Alyssa; Cadotte, David W; Foltz, Warren D; Fehlings, Michael G

2017-09-01

The majority of spinal cord injuries (SCI) occur at the cervical level, which results in significant impairment. Neurologic level and severity of injury are primary endpoints in clinical trials; however, how level-specific damages relate to behavioural performance in cervical injury is incompletely understood. We hypothesized that ascending level of injury leads to worsening forelimb performance, and correlates with loss of neural tissue and muscle-specific neuron pools. A direct comparison of multiple models was made with injury realized at the C5, C6, C7 and T7 vertebral levels using clip compression with sham-operated controls. Animals were assessed for 10weeks post-injury with numerous (40) outcome measures, including: classic behavioural tests, CatWalk, non-invasive MRI, electrophysiology, histologic lesion morphometry, neuron counts, and motor compartment quantification, and multivariate statistics on the total dataset. Histologic staining and T1-weighted MR imaging revealed similar structural changes and distinct tissue loss with cystic cavitation across all injuries. Forelimb tests, including grip strength, F-WARP motor scale, Inclined Plane, and forelimb ladder walk, exhibited stratification between all groups and marked impairment with C5 and C6 injuries. Classic hindlimb tests including BBB, hindlimb ladder walk, bladder recovery, and mortality were not different between cervical and thoracic injuries. CatWalk multivariate gait analysis showed reciprocal and progressive changes forelimb and hindlimb function with ascending level of injury. Electrophysiology revealed poor forelimb axonal conduction in cervical C5 and C6 groups alone. The cervical enlargement (C5-T2) showed progressive ventral horn atrophy and loss of specific motor neuron populations with ascending injury. Multivariate statistics revealed a robust dataset, rank-order contribution of outcomes, and allowed prediction of injury level with single-level discrimination using forelimb performance and neuron counts. Level-dependent models were generated using clip-compression SCI, with marked and reliable differences in forelimb performance and specific neuron pool loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Normalization, bias correction, and peak calling for ChIP-seq

PubMed Central

Diaz, Aaron; Park, Kiyoub; Lim, Daniel A.; Song, Jun S.

2012-01-01

Next-generation sequencing is rapidly transforming our ability to profile the transcriptional, genetic, and epigenetic states of a cell. In particular, sequencing DNA from the immunoprecipitation of protein-DNA complexes (ChIP-seq) and methylated DNA (MeDIP-seq) can reveal the locations of protein binding sites and epigenetic modifications. These approaches contain numerous biases which may significantly influence the interpretation of the resulting data. Rigorous computational methods for detecting and removing such biases are still lacking. Also, multi-sample normalization still remains an important open problem. This theoretical paper systematically characterizes the biases and properties of ChIP-seq data by comparing 62 separate publicly available datasets, using rigorous statistical models and signal processing techniques. Statistical methods for separating ChIP-seq signal from background noise, as well as correcting enrichment test statistics for sequence-dependent and sonication biases, are presented. Our method effectively separates reads into signal and background components prior to normalization, improving the signal-to-noise ratio. Moreover, most peak callers currently use a generic null model which suffers from low specificity at the sensitivity level requisite for detecting subtle, but true, ChIP enrichment. The proposed method of determining a cell type-specific null model, which accounts for cell type-specific biases, is shown to be capable of achieving a lower false discovery rate at a given significance threshold than current methods. PMID:22499706

Theory and generation of conditional, scalable sub-Gaussian random fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panzeri, M.; Riva, M.; Guadagnini, A.; Neuman, S. P.

2016-03-01

Many earth and environmental (as well as a host of other) variables, Y, and their spatial (or temporal) increments, ΔY, exhibit non-Gaussian statistical scaling. Previously we were able to capture key aspects of such non-Gaussian scaling by treating Y and/or ΔY as sub-Gaussian random fields (or processes). This however left unaddressed the empirical finding that whereas sample frequency distributions of Y tend to display relatively mild non-Gaussian peaks and tails, those of ΔY often reveal peaks that grow sharper and tails that become heavier with decreasing separation distance or lag. Recently we proposed a generalized sub-Gaussian model (GSG) which resolves this apparent inconsistency between the statistical scaling behaviors of observed variables and their increments. We presented an algorithm to generate unconditional random realizations of statistically isotropic or anisotropic GSG functions and illustrated it in two dimensions. Most importantly, we demonstrated the feasibility of estimating all parameters of a GSG model underlying a single realization of Y by analyzing jointly spatial moments of Y data and corresponding increments, ΔY. Here, we extend our GSG model to account for noisy measurements of Y at a discrete set of points in space (or time), present an algorithm to generate conditional realizations of corresponding isotropic or anisotropic random fields, introduce two approximate versions of this algorithm to reduce CPU time, and explore them on one and two-dimensional synthetic test cases.

A Fe K Line in GRB 970508

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Protassov, R.; van Dyk, D.; Connors, A.; Kashyap, V.; Siemiginowska, A.

2000-12-01

We examine the x-ray spectrum of the afterglow of GRB 970508, analyzed for Fe line emission by Piro et al (1999, ApJL, 514, L73). This is a difficult and extremely important measurement: the detection of x-ray afterglows from γ -ray bursts is at best a tricky business, relying on near-real satellite time response to unpredictable events; and a great deal of luck in catching a burst bright enough for a useful spectral analysis. Detecting a clear atomic (or cyclotron) line in the generally smooth and featureless afterglow (or burst) emission not only gives one of the few very specific keys to the physics local to the emission region, but also provides clues or confirmation of its distance (via redshift). Unfortunately, neither the likelihood ratio test or the related F-statistic commonly used to detect spectral lines adhere to their nominal Chi square and F-distributions. Thus we begin by calibrating the F-statistic used in Piro et al (1999, ApJL, 514, L73) via a simulation study. The simulation study relies on a completely specified source model, i.e. we do Monte Carlo simulations with all model parameters fixed (so--called ``parametric bootstrapping''). Second, we employ the method of posterior predictive p-values to calibrate a LRT statistic while accounting for the uncertainty in the parameters of the source model. Our analysis reveals evidence for the Fe K line.

An image based method for crop yield prediction using remotely sensed and crop canopy data: the case of Paphos district, western Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadavid, G.; Hadjimitsis, D.

2014-08-01

Remote sensing techniques development have provided the opportunity for optimizing yields in the agricultural procedure and moreover to predict the forthcoming yield. Yield prediction plays a vital role in Agricultural Policy and provides useful data to policy makers. In this context, crop and soil parameters along with NDVI index which are valuable sources of information have been elaborated statistically to test if a) Durum wheat yield can be predicted and b) when is the actual time-window to predict the yield in the district of Paphos, where Durum wheat is the basic cultivation and supports the rural economy of the area. 15 plots cultivated with Durum wheat from the Agricultural Research Institute of Cyprus for research purposes, in the area of interest, have been under observation for three years to derive the necessary data. Statistical and remote sensing techniques were then applied to derive and map a model that can predict yield of Durum wheat in this area. Indeed the semi-empirical model developed for this purpose, with very high correlation coefficient R2=0.886, has shown in practice that can predict yields very good. Students T test has revealed that predicted values and real values of yield have no statistically significant difference. The developed model can and will be further elaborated with more parameters and applied for other crops in the near future.

Statistical Learning Is Constrained to Less Abstract Patterns in Complex Sensory Input (but not the Least)

PubMed Central

Emberson, Lauren L.; Rubinstein, Dani

2016-01-01

The influence of statistical information on behavior (either through learning or adaptation) is quickly becoming foundational to many domains of cognitive psychology and cognitive neuroscience, from language comprehension to visual development. We investigate a central problem impacting these diverse fields: when encountering input with rich statistical information, are there any constraints on learning? This paper examines learning outcomes when adult learners are given statistical information across multiple levels of abstraction simultaneously: from abstract, semantic categories of everyday objects to individual viewpoints on these objects. After revealing statistical learning of abstract, semantic categories with scrambled individual exemplars (Exp. 1), participants viewed pictures where the categories as well as the individual objects predicted picture order (e.g., bird1—dog1, bird2—dog2). Our findings suggest that participants preferentially encode the relationships between the individual objects, even in the presence of statistical regularities linking semantic categories (Exps. 2 and 3). In a final experiment we investigate whether learners are biased towards learning object-level regularities or simply construct the most detailed model given the data (and therefore best able to predict the specifics of the upcoming stimulus) by investigating whether participants preferentially learn from the statistical regularities linking individual snapshots of objects or the relationship between the objects themselves (e.g., bird_picture1— dog_picture1, bird_picture2—dog_picture2). We find that participants fail to learn the relationships between individual snapshots, suggesting a bias towards object-level statistical regularities as opposed to merely constructing the most complete model of the input. This work moves beyond the previous existence proofs that statistical learning is possible at both very high and very low levels of abstraction (categories vs. individual objects) and suggests that, at least with the current categories and type of learner, there are biases to pick up on statistical regularities between individual objects even when robust statistical information is present at other levels of abstraction. These findings speak directly to emerging theories about how systems supporting statistical learning and prediction operate in our structure-rich environments. Moreover, the theoretical implications of the current work across multiple domains of study is already clear: statistical learning cannot be assumed to be unconstrained even if statistical learning has previously been established at a given level of abstraction when that information is presented in isolation. PMID:27139779

Research Education in Undergraduate Occupational Therapy Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petersen, Paul; And Others

1992-01-01

Of 63 undergraduate occupational therapy programs surveyed, the 38 responses revealed some common areas covered: elementary descriptive statistics, validity, reliability, and measurement. Areas underrepresented include statistical analysis with or without computers, research design, and advanced statistics. (SK)

Election Turnout Statistics in Many Countries: Similarities, Differences, and a Diffusive Field Model for Decision-Making

PubMed Central

Borghesi, Christian; Raynal, Jean-Claude; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2012-01-01

We study in details the turnout rate statistics for 77 elections in 11 different countries. We show that the empirical results established in a previous paper for French elections appear to hold much more generally. We find in particular that the spatial correlation of turnout rates decay logarithmically with distance in all cases. This result is quantitatively reproduced by a decision model that assumes that each voter makes his mind as a result of three influence terms: one totally idiosyncratic component, one city-specific term with short-ranged fluctuations in space, and one long-ranged correlated field which propagates diffusively in space. A detailed analysis reveals several interesting features: for example, different countries have different degrees of local heterogeneities and seem to be characterized by a different propensity for individuals to conform to the cultural norm. We furthermore find clear signs of herding (i.e., strongly correlated decisions at the individual level) in some countries, but not in others. PMID:22615762

Grand canonical validation of the bipartite international trade network.

PubMed

Straka, Mika J; Caldarelli, Guido; Saracco, Fabio

2017-08-01

Devising strategies for economic development in a globally competitive landscape requires a solid and unbiased understanding of countries' technological advancements and similarities among export products. Both can be addressed through the bipartite representation of the International Trade Network. In this paper, we apply the recently proposed grand canonical projection algorithm to uncover country and product communities. Contrary to past endeavors, our methodology, based on information theory, creates monopartite projections in an unbiased and analytically tractable way. Single links between countries or products represent statistically significant signals, which are not accounted for by null models such as the bipartite configuration model. We find stable country communities reflecting the socioeconomic distinction in developed, newly industrialized, and developing countries. Furthermore, we observe product clusters based on the aforementioned country groups. Our analysis reveals the existence of a complicated structure in the bipartite International Trade Network: apart from the diversification of export baskets from the most basic to the most exclusive products, we observe a statistically significant signal of an export specialization mechanism towards more sophisticated products.

Grand canonical validation of the bipartite international trade network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Straka, Mika J.; Caldarelli, Guido; Saracco, Fabio

2017-08-01

Devising strategies for economic development in a globally competitive landscape requires a solid and unbiased understanding of countries' technological advancements and similarities among export products. Both can be addressed through the bipartite representation of the International Trade Network. In this paper, we apply the recently proposed grand canonical projection algorithm to uncover country and product communities. Contrary to past endeavors, our methodology, based on information theory, creates monopartite projections in an unbiased and analytically tractable way. Single links between countries or products represent statistically significant signals, which are not accounted for by null models such as the bipartite configuration model. We find stable country communities reflecting the socioeconomic distinction in developed, newly industrialized, and developing countries. Furthermore, we observe product clusters based on the aforementioned country groups. Our analysis reveals the existence of a complicated structure in the bipartite International Trade Network: apart from the diversification of export baskets from the most basic to the most exclusive products, we observe a statistically significant signal of an export specialization mechanism towards more sophisticated products.

The intersection of aggregate-level lead exposure and crime.

PubMed

Boutwell, Brian B; Nelson, Erik J; Emo, Brett; Vaughn, Michael G; Schootman, Mario; Rosenfeld, Richard; Lewis, Roger

2016-07-01

Childhood lead exposure has been associated with criminal behavior later in life. The current study aimed to analyze the association between elevated blood lead levels (n=59,645) and crime occurrence (n=90,433) across census tracts within St. Louis, Missouri. Longitudinal ecological study. Saint Louis, Missouri. Blood lead levels. Violent, Non-violent, and total crime at the census tract level. Spatial statistical models were used to account for the spatial autocorrelation of the data. Greater lead exposure at the census-tract level was associated with increased violent, non-violent, and total crime. In addition, we examined whether non-additive effects existed in the data by testing for an interaction between lead exposure and concentrated disadvantage. Some evidence of a negative interaction emerged, however, it failed to reach traditional levels of statistical significance (supplementary models, however, revealed a similar negative interaction that was significant). More precise measurements of lead exposure in the aggregate, produced additional evidence that lead is a potent predictor of criminal outcomes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis and generation of groundwater concentration time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crăciun, Maria; Vamoş, Călin; Suciu, Nicolae

2018-01-01

Concentration time series are provided by simulated concentrations of a nonreactive solute transported in groundwater, integrated over the transverse direction of a two-dimensional computational domain and recorded at the plume center of mass. The analysis of a statistical ensemble of time series reveals subtle features that are not captured by the first two moments which characterize the approximate Gaussian distribution of the two-dimensional concentration fields. The concentration time series exhibit a complex preasymptotic behavior driven by a nonstationary trend and correlated fluctuations with time-variable amplitude. Time series with almost the same statistics are generated by successively adding to a time-dependent trend a sum of linear regression terms, accounting for correlations between fluctuations around the trend and their increments in time, and terms of an amplitude modulated autoregressive noise of order one with time-varying parameter. The algorithm generalizes mixing models used in probability density function approaches. The well-known interaction by exchange with the mean mixing model is a special case consisting of a linear regression with constant coefficients.

Multiresolution multiscale active mask segmentation of fluorescence microscope images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasa, Gowri; Fickus, Matthew; Kovačević, Jelena

2009-08-01

We propose an active mask segmentation framework that combines the advantages of statistical modeling, smoothing, speed and flexibility offered by the traditional methods of region-growing, multiscale, multiresolution and active contours respectively. At the crux of this framework is a paradigm shift from evolving contours in the continuous domain to evolving multiple masks in the discrete domain. Thus, the active mask framework is particularly suited to segment digital images. We demonstrate the use of the framework in practice through the segmentation of punctate patterns in fluorescence microscope images. Experiments reveal that statistical modeling helps the multiple masks converge from a random initial configuration to a meaningful one. This obviates the need for an involved initialization procedure germane to most of the traditional methods used to segment fluorescence microscope images. While we provide the mathematical details of the functions used to segment fluorescence microscope images, this is only an instantiation of the active mask framework. We suggest some other instantiations of the framework to segment different types of images.

Extracting multistage screening rules from online dating activity data.

PubMed

Bruch, Elizabeth; Feinberg, Fred; Lee, Kee Yeun

2016-09-20

This paper presents a statistical framework for harnessing online activity data to better understand how people make decisions. Building on insights from cognitive science and decision theory, we develop a discrete choice model that allows for exploratory behavior and multiple stages of decision making, with different rules enacted at each stage. Critically, the approach can identify if and when people invoke noncompensatory screeners that eliminate large swaths of alternatives from detailed consideration. The model is estimated using deidentified activity data on 1.1 million browsing and writing decisions observed on an online dating site. We find that mate seekers enact screeners ("deal breakers") that encode acceptability cutoffs. A nonparametric account of heterogeneity reveals that, even after controlling for a host of observable attributes, mate evaluation differs across decision stages as well as across identified groupings of men and women. Our statistical framework can be widely applied in analyzing large-scale data on multistage choices, which typify searches for "big ticket" items.

Extracting multistage screening rules from online dating activity data

PubMed Central

Bruch, Elizabeth; Feinberg, Fred; Lee, Kee Yeun

2016-01-01

This paper presents a statistical framework for harnessing online activity data to better understand how people make decisions. Building on insights from cognitive science and decision theory, we develop a discrete choice model that allows for exploratory behavior and multiple stages of decision making, with different rules enacted at each stage. Critically, the approach can identify if and when people invoke noncompensatory screeners that eliminate large swaths of alternatives from detailed consideration. The model is estimated using deidentified activity data on 1.1 million browsing and writing decisions observed on an online dating site. We find that mate seekers enact screeners (“deal breakers”) that encode acceptability cutoffs. A nonparametric account of heterogeneity reveals that, even after controlling for a host of observable attributes, mate evaluation differs across decision stages as well as across identified groupings of men and women. Our statistical framework can be widely applied in analyzing large-scale data on multistage choices, which typify searches for “big ticket” items. PMID:27578870

NETWORK ASSISTED ANALYSIS TO REVEAL THE GENETIC BASIS OF AUTISM1

PubMed Central

Liu, Li; Lei, Jing; Roeder, Kathryn

2016-01-01

While studies show that autism is highly heritable, the nature of the genetic basis of this disorder remains illusive. Based on the idea that highly correlated genes are functionally interrelated and more likely to affect risk, we develop a novel statistical tool to find more potentially autism risk genes by combining the genetic association scores with gene co-expression in specific brain regions and periods of development. The gene dependence network is estimated using a novel partial neighborhood selection (PNS) algorithm, where node specific properties are incorporated into network estimation for improved statistical and computational efficiency. Then we adopt a hidden Markov random field (HMRF) model to combine the estimated network and the genetic association scores in a systematic manner. The proposed modeling framework can be naturally extended to incorporate additional structural information concerning the dependence between genes. Using currently available genetic association data from whole exome sequencing studies and brain gene expression levels, the proposed algorithm successfully identified 333 genes that plausibly affect autism risk. PMID:27134692

H/D exchange mass spectrometry and statistical coupling analysis reveal a role for allostery in a ferredoxin-dependent bifurcating transhydrogenase catalytic cycle.

PubMed

Berry, Luke; Poudel, Saroj; Tokmina-Lukaszewska, Monika; Colman, Daniel R; Nguyen, Diep M N; Schut, Gerrit J; Adams, Michael W W; Peters, John W; Boyd, Eric S; Bothner, Brian

2018-01-01

Recent investigations into ferredoxin-dependent transhydrogenases, a class of enzymes responsible for electron transport, have highlighted the biological importance of flavin-based electron bifurcation (FBEB). FBEB generates biomolecules with very low reduction potential by coupling the oxidation of an electron donor with intermediate potential to the reduction of high and low potential molecules. Bifurcating systems can generate biomolecules with very low reduction potentials, such as reduced ferredoxin (Fd), from species such as NADPH. Metabolic systems that use bifurcation are more efficient and confer a competitive advantage for the organisms that harbor them. Structural models are now available for two NADH-dependent ferredoxin-NADP + oxidoreductase (Nfn) complexes. These models, together with spectroscopic studies, have provided considerable insight into the catalytic process of FBEB. However, much about the mechanism and regulation of these multi-subunit proteins remains unclear. Using hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX-MS) and statistical coupling analysis (SCA), we identified specific pathways of communication within the model FBEB system, Nfn from Pyrococus furiosus, under conditions at each step of the catalytic cycle. HDX-MS revealed evidence for allosteric coupling across protein subunits upon nucleotide and ferredoxin binding. SCA uncovered a network of co-evolving residues that can provide connectivity across the complex. Together, the HDX-MS and SCA data show that protein allostery occurs across the ensemble of iron‑sulfur cofactors and ligand binding sites using specific pathways that connect domains allowing them to function as dynamically coordinated units. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimized statistical parametric mapping procedure for NIRS data contaminated by motion artifacts : Neurometric analysis of body schema extension.

PubMed

Suzuki, Satoshi

2017-09-01

This study investigated the spatial distribution of brain activity on body schema (BS) modification induced by natural body motion using two versions of a hand-tracing task. In Task 1, participants traced Japanese Hiragana characters using the right forefinger, requiring no BS expansion. In Task 2, participants performed the tracing task with a long stick, requiring BS expansion. Spatial distribution was analyzed using general linear model (GLM)-based statistical parametric mapping of near-infrared spectroscopy data contaminated with motion artifacts caused by the hand-tracing task. Three methods were utilized in series to counter the artifacts, and optimal conditions and modifications were investigated: a model-free method (Step 1), a convolution matrix method (Step 2), and a boxcar-function-based Gaussian convolution method (Step 3). The results revealed four methodological findings: (1) Deoxyhemoglobin was suitable for the GLM because both Akaike information criterion and the variance against the averaged hemodynamic response function were smaller than for other signals, (2) a high-pass filter with a cutoff frequency of .014 Hz was effective, (3) the hemodynamic response function computed from a Gaussian kernel function and its first- and second-derivative terms should be included in the GLM model, and (4) correction of non-autocorrelation and use of effective degrees of freedom were critical. Investigating z-maps computed according to these guidelines revealed that contiguous areas of BA7-BA40-BA21 in the right hemisphere became significantly activated ([Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and [Formula: see text], respectively) during BS modification while performing the hand-tracing task.

Proteomic characterization of EL4 lymphoma-derived tumors upon chemotherapy treatment reveals potential roles for lysosomes and caspase-6 during tumor cell death in vivo.

PubMed

Kramer, David A; Eldeeb, Mohamed A; Wuest, Melinda; Mercer, John; Fahlman, Richard P

2017-06-01

The murine mouse lymphoblastic lymphoma cell line (EL4) tumor model is an established in vivo apoptosis model for the investigation of novel cancer imaging agents and immunological treatments due to the rapid and significant response of the EL4 tumors to cyclophosphamide and etoposide combination chemotherapy. Despite the utility of this model system in cancer research, little is known regarding the molecular details of in vivo tumor cell death. Here, we report the first in-depth quantitative proteomic analysis of the changes that occur in these tumors upon cyclophosphamide and etoposide treatment in vivo. Using a label-free quantitative proteomic approach a total of 5838 proteins were identified in the treated and untreated tumors, of which 875 were determined to change in abundance with statistical significance. Initial analysis of the data reveals changes that may have been predicted, such as the downregulation of ribosomes, but demonstrates the robustness of the dataset. Analysis of the dataset also reveals the unexpected downregulation of caspase-3 and an upregulation of caspase-6 in addition to a global upregulation of lysosomal proteins in the bulk of the tumor. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of a simple geophysical fluid dynamics model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkley, Wim; Severijns, Camiel

2014-05-01

Lorenz [1] has devised a dynamical system that has proved to be very useful as a benchmark system in geophysical fluid dynamics. The system in its simplest form consists of a periodic array of variables that can be associated with an atmospheric field on a latitude circle. The system is driven by a constant forcing, is damped by linear friction and has a simple advection term that causes the model to behave chaotically if the forcing is large enough. Our aim is to predict the statistics of Lorenz' model on the basis of a given average value of its total energy - obtained from a numerical integration - and the assumption of statistical stationarity. Our method is the principle of maximum entropy [2] which in this case reads: the information entropy of the system's probability density function shall be maximal under the constraints of normalization, a given value of the average total energy and statistical stationarity. Statistical stationarity is incorporated approximately by using `stationarity constraints', i.e., by requiring that the average first and possibly higher-order time-derivatives of the energy are zero in the maximization of entropy. The analysis [3] reveals that, if the first stationarity constraint is used, the resulting probability density function rather accurately reproduces the statistics of the individual variables. If the second stationarity constraint is used as well, the correlations between the variables are also reproduced quite adequately. The method can be generalized straightforwardly and holds the promise of a viable non-equilibrium statistical mechanics of the forced-dissipative systems of geophysical fluid dynamics. [1] E.N. Lorenz, 1996: Predictability - A problem partly solved, in Proc. Seminar on Predictability (ECMWF, Reading, Berkshire, UK), Vol. 1, pp. 1-18. [2] E.T. Jaynes, 2003: Probability Theory - The Logic of Science (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). [3] W.T.M. Verkley and C.A. Severijns, 2014: The maximum entropy principle applied to a dynamical system proposed by Lorenz, Eur. Phys. J. B, 87:7, http://dx.doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2013-40681-2 (open access).

Validation of a modification to Performance-Tested Method 070601: Reveal Listeria Test for detection of Listeria spp. in selected foods and selected environmental samples.

PubMed

Alles, Susan; Peng, Linda X; Mozola, Mark A

2009-01-01

A modification to Performance-Tested Method (PTM) 070601, Reveal Listeria Test (Reveal), is described. The modified method uses a new media formulation, LESS enrichment broth, in single-step enrichment protocols for both foods and environmental sponge and swab samples. Food samples are enriched for 27-30 h at 30 degrees C and environmental samples for 24-48 h at 30 degrees C. Implementation of these abbreviated enrichment procedures allows test results to be obtained on a next-day basis. In testing of 14 food types in internal comparative studies with inoculated samples, there was a statistically significant difference in performance between the Reveal and reference culture [U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Bacteriological Analytical Manual (FDA/BAM) or U.S. Department of Agriculture-Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA-FSIS)] methods for only a single food in one trial (pasteurized crab meat) at the 27 h enrichment time point, with more positive results obtained with the FDA/BAM reference method. No foods showed statistically significant differences in method performance at the 30 h time point. Independent laboratory testing of 3 foods again produced a statistically significant difference in results for crab meat at the 27 h time point; otherwise results of the Reveal and reference methods were statistically equivalent. Overall, considering both internal and independent laboratory trials, sensitivity of the Reveal method relative to the reference culture procedures in testing of foods was 85.9% at 27 h and 97.1% at 30 h. Results from 5 environmental surfaces inoculated with various strains of Listeria spp. showed that the Reveal method was more productive than the reference USDA-FSIS culture procedure for 3 surfaces (stainless steel, plastic, and cast iron), whereas results were statistically equivalent to the reference method for the other 2 surfaces (ceramic tile and sealed concrete). An independent laboratory trial with ceramic tile inoculated with L. monocytogenes confirmed the effectiveness of the Reveal method at the 24 h time point. Overall, sensitivity of the Reveal method at 24 h relative to that of the USDA-FSIS method was 153%. The Reveal method exhibited extremely high specificity, with only a single false-positive result in all trials combined for overall specificity of 99.5%.

Improving the Statistical Modeling of the TRMM Extreme Precipitation Monitoring System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demirdjian, L.; Zhou, Y.; Huffman, G. J.

2016-12-01

This project improves upon an existing extreme precipitation monitoring system based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) daily product (3B42) using new statistical models. The proposed system utilizes a regional modeling approach, where data from similar grid locations are pooled to increase the quality and stability of the resulting model parameter estimates to compensate for the short data record. The regional frequency analysis is divided into two stages. In the first stage, the region defined by the TRMM measurements is partitioned into approximately 27,000 non-overlapping clusters using a recursive k-means clustering scheme. In the second stage, a statistical model is used to characterize the extreme precipitation events occurring in each cluster. Instead of utilizing the block-maxima approach used in the existing system, where annual maxima are fit to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) probability distribution at each cluster separately, the present work adopts the peak-over-threshold (POT) method of classifying points as extreme if they exceed a pre-specified threshold. Theoretical considerations motivate the use of the Generalized-Pareto (GP) distribution for fitting threshold exceedances. The fitted parameters can be used to construct simple and intuitive average recurrence interval (ARI) maps which reveal how rare a particular precipitation event is given its spatial location. The new methodology eliminates much of the random noise that was produced by the existing models due to a short data record, producing more reasonable ARI maps when compared with NOAA's long-term Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ground based observations. The resulting ARI maps can be useful for disaster preparation, warning, and management, as well as increased public awareness of the severity of precipitation events. Furthermore, the proposed methodology can be applied to various other extreme climate records.

Vitamin D and ferritin correlation with chronic neck pain using standard statistics and a novel artificial neural network prediction model.

PubMed

Eloqayli, Haytham; Al-Yousef, Ali; Jaradat, Raid

2018-02-15

Despite the high prevalence of chronic neck pain, there is limited consensus about the primary etiology, risk factors, diagnostic criteria and therapeutic outcome. Here, we aimed to determine if Ferritin and Vitamin D are modifiable risk factors with chronic neck pain using slandered statistics and artificial intelligence neural network (ANN). Fifty-four patients with chronic neck pain treated between February 2016 and August 2016 in King Abdullah University Hospital and 54 patients age matched controls undergoing outpatient or minor procedures were enrolled. Patients and control demographic parameters, height, weight and single measurement of serum vitamin D, Vitamin B12, ferritin, calcium, phosphorus, zinc were obtained. An ANN prediction model was developed. The statistical analysis reveals that patients with chronic neck pain have significantly lower serum Vitamin D and Ferritin (p-value <.05). 90% of patients with chronic neck pain were females. Multilayer Feed Forward Neural Network with Back Propagation(MFFNN) prediction model were developed and designed based on vitamin D and ferritin as input variables and CNP as output. The ANN model output results show that, 92 out of 108 samples were correctly classified with 85% classification accuracy. Although Iron and vitamin D deficiency cannot be isolated as the sole risk factors of chronic neck pain, they should be considered as two modifiable risk. The high prevalence of chronic neck pain, hypovitaminosis D and low ferritin amongst women is of concern. Bioinformatics predictions with artificial neural network can be of future benefit in classification and prediction models for chronic neck pain. We hope this initial work will encourage a future larger cohort study addressing vitamin D and iron correction as modifiable factors and the application of artificial intelligence models in clinical practice.

Students' Emergent Articulations of Statistical Models and Modeling in Making Informal Statistical Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Braham, Hana Manor; Ben-Zvi, Dani

2017-01-01

A fundamental aspect of statistical inference is representation of real-world data using statistical models. This article analyzes students' articulations of statistical models and modeling during their first steps in making informal statistical inferences. An integrated modeling approach (IMA) was designed and implemented to help students…

Why Is Statistics Perceived as Difficult and Can Practice during Training Change Perceptions? Insights from a Prospective Mathematics Teacher

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fitzmaurice, Olivia; Leavy, Aisling; Hannigan, Ailish

2014-01-01

An investigation into prospective mathematics/statistics teachers' (n = 134) conceptual understanding of statistics and attitudes to statistics carried out at the University of Limerick revealed an overall positive attitude to statistics but a perception that it can be a difficult subject, in particular that it requires a great deal of discipline…

Towards extensive spatio-temporal reconstructions of North American land cover: a comparison of state-of-the-art pollen-vegetation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, A.; Trachsel, M.; Goring, S. J.; Paciorek, C. J.; McLachlan, J. S.; Jackson, S. T.; Williams, J. W.

2017-12-01

Pollen records have been extensively used to reconstruct past changes in vegetation and study the underlying processes. However, developing the statistical techniques needed to accurately represent both data and process uncertainties is a formidable challenge. Recent advances in paleoecoinformatics (e.g. the Neotoma Paleoecology Database and the European Pollen Database), Bayesian age-depth models, and process-based pollen-vegetation models, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling have pushed paleovegetation reconstructions forward to a point where multiple sources of uncertainty can be incorporated into reconstructions, which in turn enables new hypotheses to be asked and more rigorous integration of paleovegetation data with earth system models and terrestrial ecosystem models. Several kinds of pollen-vegetation models have been developed, notably LOVE/REVEALS, STEPPS, and classical transfer functions such as the modern analog technique. LOVE/REVEALS has been adopted as the standard method for the LandCover6k effort to develop quantitative reconstructions of land cover for the Holocene, while STEPPS has been developed recently as part of the PalEON project and applied to reconstruct with uncertainty shifts in forest composition in New England and the upper Midwest during the late Holocene. Each PVM has different assumptions and structure and uses different input data, but few comparisons among approaches yet exist. Here, we present new reconstructions of land cover change in northern North America during the Holocene based on LOVE/REVEALS and data drawn from the Neotoma database and compare STEPPS-based reconstructions to those from LOVE/REVEALS. These parallel developments with LOVE/REVEALS provide an opportunity to compare and contrast models, and to begin to generate continental scale reconstructions, with explicit uncertainties, that can provide a base for interdisciplinary research within the biogeosciences. We show how STEPPS provides an important benchmark for past land-cover reconstruction, and how the LandCover 6k effort in North America advances our understanding of the past by allowing cross-continent comparisons using standardized methods and quantifying the impact of humans in the early Anthropocene.

Science-Technology-Society literacy in college non-majors biology: Comparing problem/case studies based learning and traditional expository methods of instruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, John S.

This study used a multiple response model (MRM) on selected items from the Views on Science-Technology-Society (VOSTS) survey to examine science-technology-society (STS) literacy among college non-science majors' taught using Problem/Case Studies Based Learning (PBL/CSBL) and traditional expository methods of instruction. An initial pilot investigation of 15 VOSTS items produced a valid and reliable scoring model which can be used to quantitatively assess student literacy on a variety of STS topics deemed important for informed civic engagement in science related social and environmental issues. The new scoring model allows for the use of parametric inferential statistics to test hypotheses about factors influencing STS literacy. The follow-up cross-institutional study comparing teaching methods employed Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM) to model the efficiency and equitability of instructional methods on STS literacy. A cluster analysis was also used to compare pre and post course patterns of student views on the set of positions expressed within VOSTS items. HLM analysis revealed significantly higher instructional efficiency in the PBL/CSBL study group for 4 of the 35 STS attitude indices (characterization of media vs. school science; tentativeness of scientific models; cultural influences on scientific research), and more equitable effects of traditional instruction on one attitude index (interdependence of science and technology). Cluster analysis revealed generally stable patterns of pre to post course views across study groups, but also revealed possible teaching method effects on the relationship between the views expressed within VOSTS items with respect to (1) interdependency of science and technology; (2) anti-technology; (3) socioscientific decision-making; (4) scientific/technological solutions to environmental problems; (5) usefulness of school vs. media characterizations of science; (6) social constructivist vs. objectivist views of theories; (7) impact of cultural religious/ethical views on science; (8) tentativeness of scientific models, evidence and predictions; (9) civic control of technological developments. This analysis also revealed common relationships between student views which would not have been revealed under the original unique response model (URM) of VOSTS and also common viewpoint patterns that warrant further qualitative exploration.

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets.

PubMed

Farmer, J Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I

2005-02-08

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations.

A Three Dimensional Kinematic and Kinetic Study of the Golf Swing

PubMed Central

Nesbit, Steven M.

2005-01-01

This paper discusses the three-dimensional kinematics and kinetics of a golf swing as performed by 84 male and one female amateur subjects of various skill levels. The analysis was performed using a variable full-body computer model of a human coupled with a flexible model of a golf club. Data to drive the model was obtained from subject swings recorded using a multi-camera motion analysis system. Model output included club trajectories, golfer/club interaction forces and torques, work and power, and club deflections. These data formed the basis for a statistical analysis of all subjects, and a detailed analysis and comparison of the swing characteristics of four of the subjects. The analysis generated much new data concerning the mechanics of the golf swing. It revealed that a golf swing is a highly coordinated and individual motion and subject-to-subject variations were significant. The study highlighted the importance of the wrists in generating club head velocity and orienting the club face. The trajectory of the hands and the ability to do work were the factors most closely related to skill level. Key Points Full-body model of the golf swing. Mechanical description of the golf swing. Statistical analysis of golf swing mechanics. Comparisons of subject swing mechanics PMID:24627665

A three dimensional kinematic and kinetic study of the golf swing.

PubMed

Nesbit, Steven M

2005-12-01

This paper discusses the three-dimensional kinematics and kinetics of a golf swing as performed by 84 male and one female amateur subjects of various skill levels. The analysis was performed using a variable full-body computer model of a human coupled with a flexible model of a golf club. Data to drive the model was obtained from subject swings recorded using a multi-camera motion analysis system. Model output included club trajectories, golfer/club interaction forces and torques, work and power, and club deflections. These data formed the basis for a statistical analysis of all subjects, and a detailed analysis and comparison of the swing characteristics of four of the subjects. The analysis generated much new data concerning the mechanics of the golf swing. It revealed that a golf swing is a highly coordinated and individual motion and subject-to-subject variations were significant. The study highlighted the importance of the wrists in generating club head velocity and orienting the club face. The trajectory of the hands and the ability to do work were the factors most closely related to skill level. Key PointsFull-body model of the golf swing.Mechanical description of the golf swing.Statistical analysis of golf swing mechanics.Comparisons of subject swing mechanics.

Latent Variable Modeling of Brain Gray Matter Volume and Psychopathy in Incarcerated Offenders

PubMed Central

Baskin-Sommers, Arielle R.; Neumann, Craig S.; Cope, Lora M.; Kiehl, Kent A.

2016-01-01

Advanced statistical modeling has become a prominent feature in psychological science and can be a useful approach for representing the neural architecture linked to psychopathology. Psychopathy, a disorder characterized by dysfunction in interpersonal-affective and impulsive-antisocial domains, is associated with widespread neural abnormalities. Several imaging studies suggest that underlying structural deficits in paralimbic regions are associated with psychopathy. While these studies are useful, they make assumptions about the organization of the brain and its relevance to individuals displaying psychopathic features. Capitalizing on statistical modeling, the present study (N=254) used latent variable methods to examine the structure of gray matter volume in male offenders, and assessed the latent relations between psychopathy and gray matter factors reflecting paralimbic and non-paralimbic regions. Results revealed good fit for a four-factor gray matter paralimbic model and these first-order factors were accounted for by a super-ordinate paralimbic ‘system’ factor. Moreover, a super-ordinate psychopathy factor significantly predicted the paralimbic, but not the non-paralimbic factor. The latent variable paralimbic model, specifically linked with psychopathy, goes beyond understanding of single brain regions within the system and provides evidence for psychopathy-related gray matter volume reductions in the paralimbic system as a whole. PMID:27269123

Statistical methods applied to the study of opinion formation models: a brief overview and results of a numerical study of a model based on the social impact theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bordogna, Clelia María; Albano, Ezequiel V.

2007-02-01

The aim of this paper is twofold. On the one hand we present a brief overview on the application of statistical physics methods to the modelling of social phenomena focusing our attention on models for opinion formation. On the other hand, we discuss and present original results of a model for opinion formation based on the social impact theory developed by Latané. The presented model accounts for the interaction among the members of a social group under the competitive influence of a strong leader and the mass media, both supporting two different states of opinion. Extensive simulations of the model are presented, showing that they led to the observation of a rich scenery of complex behaviour including, among others, critical behaviour and phase transitions between a state of opinion dominated by the leader and another dominated by the mass media. The occurrence of interesting finite-size effects reveals that, in small communities, the opinion of the leader may prevail over that of the mass media. This observation is relevant for the understanding of social phenomena involving a finite number of individuals, in contrast to actual physical phase transitions that take place in the thermodynamic limit. Finally, we give a brief outlook of open questions and lines for future work.

Natural Scale for Employee's Payment Based on the Entropy Law

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosma, Ioan; Cosma, Adrian

2009-05-01

An econophysical modeling fated to establish an equitable scale of employees' salary in accordance with the importance and effectiveness of labor is considered. Our model, based on the concept and law of entropy, can designate all the parameters connected to the level of personal incomes and taxations, and also to the distribution of employees versus amount of salary in any remuneration system. Consistent with the laws of classical and statistical thermodynamics, this scale reveals that the personal incomes increased progressively in a natural logarithmic way, different compared with other scales arbitrary established by the governments of each country or by employing companies.

Measuring Student Learning in Social Statistics: A Pretest-Posttest Study of Knowledge Gain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Delucchi, Michael

2014-01-01

This study used a pretest-posttest design to measure student learning in undergraduate statistics. Data were derived from 185 students enrolled in six different sections of a social statistics course taught over a seven-year period by the same sociology instructor. The pretest-posttest instrument reveals statistically significant gains in…

Generation Mechanism of Nonlinear Rayleigh Surface Waves for Randomly Distributed Surface Micro-Cracks.

PubMed

Ding, Xiangyan; Li, Feilong; Zhao, Youxuan; Xu, Yongmei; Hu, Ning; Cao, Peng; Deng, Mingxi

2018-04-23

This paper investigates the propagation of Rayleigh surface waves in structures with randomly distributed surface micro-cracks using numerical simulations. The results revealed a significant ultrasonic nonlinear effect caused by the surface micro-cracks, which is mainly represented by a second harmonic with even more distinct third/quadruple harmonics. Based on statistical analysis from the numerous results of random micro-crack models, it is clearly found that the acoustic nonlinear parameter increases linearly with micro-crack density, the proportion of surface cracks, the size of micro-crack zone, and the excitation frequency. This study theoretically reveals that nonlinear Rayleigh surface waves are feasible for use in quantitatively identifying the physical characteristics of surface micro-cracks in structures.

Communication Games Reveal Preparation Contextuality.

PubMed

Hameedi, Alley; Tavakoli, Armin; Marques, Breno; Bourennane, Mohamed

2017-12-01

A communication game consists of distributed parties attempting to jointly complete a task with restricted communication. Such games are useful tools for studying limitations of physical theories. A theory exhibits preparation contextuality whenever its predictions cannot be explained by a preparation noncontextual model. Here, we show that communication games performed in operational theories reveal the preparation contextuality of that theory. For statistics obtained in a particular family of communication games, we show a direct correspondence with correlations in spacelike separated events obeying the no-signaling principle. Using this, we prove that all mixed quantum states of any finite dimension are preparation contextual. We report on an experimental realization of a communication game involving three-level quantum systems from which we observe a strong violation of the constraints of preparation noncontextuality.

Communication Games Reveal Preparation Contextuality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hameedi, Alley; Tavakoli, Armin; Marques, Breno; Bourennane, Mohamed

2017-12-01

A communication game consists of distributed parties attempting to jointly complete a task with restricted communication. Such games are useful tools for studying limitations of physical theories. A theory exhibits preparation contextuality whenever its predictions cannot be explained by a preparation noncontextual model. Here, we show that communication games performed in operational theories reveal the preparation contextuality of that theory. For statistics obtained in a particular family of communication games, we show a direct correspondence with correlations in spacelike separated events obeying the no-signaling principle. Using this, we prove that all mixed quantum states of any finite dimension are preparation contextual. We report on an experimental realization of a communication game involving three-level quantum systems from which we observe a strong violation of the constraints of preparation noncontextuality.

Generation Mechanism of Nonlinear Rayleigh Surface Waves for Randomly Distributed Surface Micro-Cracks

PubMed Central

Ding, Xiangyan; Li, Feilong; Xu, Yongmei; Cao, Peng; Deng, Mingxi

2018-01-01

This paper investigates the propagation of Rayleigh surface waves in structures with randomly distributed surface micro-cracks using numerical simulations. The results revealed a significant ultrasonic nonlinear effect caused by the surface micro-cracks, which is mainly represented by a second harmonic with even more distinct third/quadruple harmonics. Based on statistical analysis from the numerous results of random micro-crack models, it is clearly found that the acoustic nonlinear parameter increases linearly with micro-crack density, the proportion of surface cracks, the size of micro-crack zone, and the excitation frequency. This study theoretically reveals that nonlinear Rayleigh surface waves are feasible for use in quantitatively identifying the physical characteristics of surface micro-cracks in structures. PMID:29690580

Firefly algorithm versus genetic algorithm as powerful variable selection tools and their effect on different multivariate calibration models in spectroscopy: A comparative study.

PubMed

Attia, Khalid A M; Nassar, Mohammed W I; El-Zeiny, Mohamed B; Serag, Ahmed

2017-01-05

For the first time, a new variable selection method based on swarm intelligence namely firefly algorithm is coupled with three different multivariate calibration models namely, concentration residual augmented classical least squares, artificial neural network and support vector regression in UV spectral data. A comparative study between the firefly algorithm and the well-known genetic algorithm was developed. The discussion revealed the superiority of using this new powerful algorithm over the well-known genetic algorithm. Moreover, different statistical tests were performed and no significant differences were found between all the models regarding their predictabilities. This ensures that simpler and faster models were obtained without any deterioration of the quality of the calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

28 CFR 22.27 - Notification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE CONFIDENTIALITY OF IDENTIFIABLE RESEARCH AND STATISTICAL...: (1) That the information will only be used or revealed for research or statistical purposes; and (2... or statistical purposes; and (3) That participation in the project in question is voluntary and may...

28 CFR 22.27 - Notification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Judicial Administration DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE CONFIDENTIALITY OF IDENTIFIABLE RESEARCH AND STATISTICAL...: (1) That the information will only be used or revealed for research or statistical purposes; and (2... or statistical purposes; and (3) That participation in the project in question is voluntary and may...

Probing loop quantum gravity with evaporating black holes.

PubMed

Barrau, A; Cailleteau, T; Cao, X; Diaz-Polo, J; Grain, J

2011-12-16

This Letter aims at showing that the observation of evaporating black holes should allow the usual Hawking behavior to be distinguished from loop quantum gravity (LQG) expectations. We present a full Monte Carlo simulation of the evaporation in LQG and statistical tests that discriminate between competing models. We conclude that contrarily to what was commonly thought, the discreteness of the area in LQG leads to characteristic features that qualify evaporating black holes as objects that could reveal quantum gravity footprints. © 2011 American Physical Society

Six new mechanics corresponding to further shape theories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Edward

2016-02-01

In this paper, suite of relational notions of shape are presented at the level of configuration space geometry, with corresponding new theories of shape mechanics and shape statistics. These further generalize two quite well known examples: (i) Kendall’s (metric) shape space with his shape statistics and Barbour’s mechanics thereupon. (ii) Leibnizian relational space alias metric scale-and-shape space to which corresponds Barbour-Bertotti mechanics. This paper’s new theories include, using the invariant and group namings, (iii) Angle alias conformal shape mechanics. (iv) Area ratio alias e shape mechanics. (v) Area alias e scale-and-shape mechanics. (iii)-(v) rest respectively on angle space, area-ratio space, and area space configuration spaces. Probability and statistics applications are also pointed to in outline. (vi) Various supersymmetric counterparts of (i)-(v) are considered. Since supergravity differs considerably from GR-based conceptions of background independence, some of the new supersymmetric shape mechanics are compared with both. These reveal compatibility between supersymmetry and GR-based conceptions of background independence, at least within these simpler model arenas.

Computational Identification of Genomic Features That Influence 3D Chromatin Domain Formation.

PubMed

Mourad, Raphaël; Cuvier, Olivier

2016-05-01

Recent advances in long-range Hi-C contact mapping have revealed the importance of the 3D structure of chromosomes in gene expression. A current challenge is to identify the key molecular drivers of this 3D structure. Several genomic features, such as architectural proteins and functional elements, were shown to be enriched at topological domain borders using classical enrichment tests. Here we propose multiple logistic regression to identify those genomic features that positively or negatively influence domain border establishment or maintenance. The model is flexible, and can account for statistical interactions among multiple genomic features. Using both simulated and real data, we show that our model outperforms enrichment test and non-parametric models, such as random forests, for the identification of genomic features that influence domain borders. Using Drosophila Hi-C data at a very high resolution of 1 kb, our model suggests that, among architectural proteins, BEAF-32 and CP190 are the main positive drivers of 3D domain borders. In humans, our model identifies well-known architectural proteins CTCF and cohesin, as well as ZNF143 and Polycomb group proteins as positive drivers of domain borders. The model also reveals the existence of several negative drivers that counteract the presence of domain borders including P300, RXRA, BCL11A and ELK1.

Computational Identification of Genomic Features That Influence 3D Chromatin Domain Formation

PubMed Central

Mourad, Raphaël; Cuvier, Olivier

2016-01-01

Recent advances in long-range Hi-C contact mapping have revealed the importance of the 3D structure of chromosomes in gene expression. A current challenge is to identify the key molecular drivers of this 3D structure. Several genomic features, such as architectural proteins and functional elements, were shown to be enriched at topological domain borders using classical enrichment tests. Here we propose multiple logistic regression to identify those genomic features that positively or negatively influence domain border establishment or maintenance. The model is flexible, and can account for statistical interactions among multiple genomic features. Using both simulated and real data, we show that our model outperforms enrichment test and non-parametric models, such as random forests, for the identification of genomic features that influence domain borders. Using Drosophila Hi-C data at a very high resolution of 1 kb, our model suggests that, among architectural proteins, BEAF-32 and CP190 are the main positive drivers of 3D domain borders. In humans, our model identifies well-known architectural proteins CTCF and cohesin, as well as ZNF143 and Polycomb group proteins as positive drivers of domain borders. The model also reveals the existence of several negative drivers that counteract the presence of domain borders including P300, RXRA, BCL11A and ELK1. PMID:27203237

Multi-scale quantum point contact model for filamentary conduction in resistive random access memories devices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lian, Xiaojuan, E-mail: xjlian2005@gmail.com; Cartoixà, Xavier; Miranda, Enrique

2014-06-28

We depart from first-principle simulations of electron transport along paths of oxygen vacancies in HfO{sub 2} to reformulate the Quantum Point Contact (QPC) model in terms of a bundle of such vacancy paths. By doing this, the number of model parameters is reduced and a much clearer link between the microscopic structure of the conductive filament (CF) and its electrical properties can be provided. The new multi-scale QPC model is applied to two different HfO{sub 2}-based devices operated in the unipolar and bipolar resistive switching (RS) modes. Extraction of the QPC model parameters from a statistically significant number of CFsmore » allows revealing significant structural differences in the CF of these two types of devices and RS modes.« less

Martian methane plume models for defining Mars rover methane source search strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicol, Christopher; Ellery, Alex; Lynch, Brian; Cloutis, Ed

2018-07-01

The detection of atmospheric methane on Mars implies an active methane source. This introduces the possibility of a biotic source with the implied need to determine whether the methane is indeed biotic in nature or geologically generated. There is a clear need for robotic algorithms which are capable of manoeuvring a rover through a methane plume on Mars to locate its source. We explore aspects of Mars methane plume modelling to reveal complex dynamics characterized by advection and diffusion. A statistical analysis of the plume model has been performed and compared to analyses of terrestrial plume models. Finally, we consider a robotic search strategy to find a methane plume source. We find that gradient-based techniques are ineffective, but that more sophisticated model-based search strategies are unlikely to be available in near-term rover missions.

Observing Consistency in Online Communication Patterns for User Re-Identification.

PubMed

Adeyemi, Ikuesan Richard; Razak, Shukor Abd; Salleh, Mazleena; Venter, Hein S

2016-01-01

Comprehension of the statistical and structural mechanisms governing human dynamics in online interaction plays a pivotal role in online user identification, online profile development, and recommender systems. However, building a characteristic model of human dynamics on the Internet involves a complete analysis of the variations in human activity patterns, which is a complex process. This complexity is inherent in human dynamics and has not been extensively studied to reveal the structural composition of human behavior. A typical method of anatomizing such a complex system is viewing all independent interconnectivity that constitutes the complexity. An examination of the various dimensions of human communication pattern in online interactions is presented in this paper. The study employed reliable server-side web data from 31 known users to explore characteristics of human-driven communications. Various machine-learning techniques were explored. The results revealed that each individual exhibited a relatively consistent, unique behavioral signature and that the logistic regression model and model tree can be used to accurately distinguish online users. These results are applicable to one-to-one online user identification processes, insider misuse investigation processes, and online profiling in various areas.

Distributions in the error space: goal-directed movements described in time and state-space representations.

PubMed

Fisher, Moria E; Huang, Felix C; Wright, Zachary A; Patton, James L

2014-01-01

Manipulation of error feedback has been of great interest to recent studies in motor control and rehabilitation. Typically, motor adaptation is shown as a change in performance with a single scalar metric for each trial, yet such an approach might overlook details about how error evolves through the movement. We believe that statistical distributions of movement error through the extent of the trajectory can reveal unique patterns of adaption and possibly reveal clues to how the motor system processes information about error. This paper describes different possible ordinate domains, focusing on representations in time and state-space, used to quantify reaching errors. We hypothesized that the domain with the lowest amount of variability would lead to a predictive model of reaching error with the highest accuracy. Here we showed that errors represented in a time domain demonstrate the least variance and allow for the highest predictive model of reaching errors. These predictive models will give rise to more specialized methods of robotic feedback and improve previous techniques of error augmentation.

Complex traffic flow that allows as well as hampers lane-changing intrinsically contains social-dilemma structures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamura, Yoshiro; Tanimoto, Jun

2018-02-01

To investigate an interesting question as to whether or not social dilemma structures can be found in a realistic traffic flow reproduced by a model, we built a new microscopic model in which an intentional driver may try lane-changing to go in front of other vehicles and may hamper others’ lane-changes. Our model consists of twofold parts; cellular automaton emulating a real traffic flow and evolutionary game theory to implement a driver’s decision making-process. Numerical results reveal that a social dilemma like the multi-player chicken game or prisoner’s dilemma game emerges depending on the traffic phase. This finding implies that a social dilemma, which has been investigated by applied mathematics so far, hides behind a traffic flow, which has been explored by fluid dynamics. Highlight - Complex system of traffic flow with consideration of driver’s decision making process is concerned. - A new model dovetailing cellular automaton with game theory is established. - Statistical result from numerical simulations reveals a social dilemma structure underlying traffic flow. - The social dilemma is triggered by a driver’s egocentric actions of lane-changing and hampering other’s lane-change.

Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

2017-06-01

Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

2005-02-01

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. double auction market | market microstructure | agent-based models

Drought Persistence Errors in Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, H.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2018-04-01

The persistence of drought events largely determines the severity of socioeconomic and ecological impacts, but the capability of current global climate models (GCMs) to simulate such events is subject to large uncertainties. In this study, the representation of drought persistence in GCMs is assessed by comparing state-of-the-art GCM model simulations to observation-based data sets. For doing so, we consider dry-to-dry transition probabilities at monthly and annual scales as estimates for drought persistence, where a dry status is defined as negative precipitation anomaly. Though there is a substantial spread in the drought persistence bias, most of the simulations show systematic underestimation of drought persistence at global scale. Subsequently, we analyzed to which degree (i) inaccurate observations, (ii) differences among models, (iii) internal climate variability, and (iv) uncertainty of the employed statistical methods contribute to the spread in drought persistence errors using an analysis of variance approach. The results show that at monthly scale, model uncertainty and observational uncertainty dominate, while the contribution from internal variability is small in most cases. At annual scale, the spread of the drought persistence error is dominated by the statistical estimation error of drought persistence, indicating that the partitioning of the error is impaired by the limited number of considered time steps. These findings reveal systematic errors in the representation of drought persistence in current GCMs and suggest directions for further model improvement.

Developing models for the prediction of hospital healthcare waste generation rate.

PubMed

Tesfahun, Esubalew; Kumie, Abera; Beyene, Abebe

2016-01-01

An increase in the number of health institutions, along with frequent use of disposable medical products, has contributed to the increase of healthcare waste generation rate. For proper handling of healthcare waste, it is crucial to predict the amount of waste generation beforehand. Predictive models can help to optimise healthcare waste management systems, set guidelines and evaluate the prevailing strategies for healthcare waste handling and disposal. However, there is no mathematical model developed for Ethiopian hospitals to predict healthcare waste generation rate. Therefore, the objective of this research was to develop models for the prediction of a healthcare waste generation rate. A longitudinal study design was used to generate long-term data on solid healthcare waste composition, generation rate and develop predictive models. The results revealed that the healthcare waste generation rate has a strong linear correlation with the number of inpatients (R(2) = 0.965), and a weak one with the number of outpatients (R(2) = 0.424). Statistical analysis was carried out to develop models for the prediction of the quantity of waste generated at each hospital (public, teaching and private). In these models, the number of inpatients and outpatients were revealed to be significant factors on the quantity of waste generated. The influence of the number of inpatients and outpatients treated varies at different hospitals. Therefore, different models were developed based on the types of hospitals. © The Author(s) 2015.

Intra-articular decorin influences the fibrosis genetic expression profile in a rabbit model of joint contracture.

PubMed

Abdel, M P; Morrey, M E; Barlow, J D; Grill, D E; Kolbert, C P; An, K N; Steinmann, S P; Morrey, B F; Sanchez-Sotelo, J

2014-01-01

The goal of this study was to determine whether intra-articular administration of the potentially anti-fibrotic agent decorin influences the expression of genes involved in the fibrotic cascade, and ultimately leads to less contracture, in an animal model. A total of 18 rabbits underwent an operation on their right knees to form contractures. Six limbs in group 1 received four intra-articular injections of decorin; six limbs in group 2 received four intra-articular injections of bovine serum albumin (BSA) over eight days; six limbs in group 3 received no injections. The contracted limbs of rabbits in group 1 were biomechanically and genetically compared with the contracted limbs of rabbits in groups 2 and 3, with the use of a calibrated joint measuring device and custom microarray, respectively. There was no statistical difference in the flexion contracture angles between those limbs that received intra-articular decorin versus those that received intra-articular BSA (66° vs 69°; p = 0.41). Likewise, there was no statistical difference between those limbs that received intra-articular decorin versus those who had no injection (66° vs 72°; p = 0.27). When compared with BSA, decorin led to a statistically significant increase in the mRNA expression of 12 genes (p < 0.01). In addition, there was a statistical change in the mRNA expression of three genes, when compared with those without injection. In this model, when administered intra-articularly at eight weeks, 2 mg of decorin had no significant effect on joint contractures. However, our genetic analysis revealed a significant alteration in several fibrotic genes. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2014;3:82-8.

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malik, Abdul; Brönnimann, Stefan; Perona, Paolo

2017-07-01

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854-1999), climate proxies (AD 1600-1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600-1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability. The observational dataset reveals that El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) has statistically significant negative intrinsic correlation with solar activity on decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-27-year) whereas there is no evidence of a link on a typical ENSO timescale (2-7-year). In the observational dataset, the volcanic eruptions do not have a link with AMO on a typical AMO timescale (55-80-year) however the long-term datasets (proxies and SOCOL-MPIOM output) show that volcanic eruptions have intrinsic negative correlation with AMO on inter-annual to multi-decadal timescales. The Pacific decadal oscillation has no link with solar activity, however, it has positive intrinsic correlation with volcanic eruptions on multi-decadal timescales (47-54-year) in reconstruction and decadal to multi-decadal timescales (16-32-year) in climate model simulations. We also find evidence of a link between volcanic eruptions and ENSO, however, the sign of relationship is not consistent between observations/proxies and climate model simulations.

Statistical mechanics of unsupervised feature learning in a restricted Boltzmann machine with binary synapses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Haiping

2017-05-01

Revealing hidden features in unlabeled data is called unsupervised feature learning, which plays an important role in pretraining a deep neural network. Here we provide a statistical mechanics analysis of the unsupervised learning in a restricted Boltzmann machine with binary synapses. A message passing equation to infer the hidden feature is derived, and furthermore, variants of this equation are analyzed. A statistical analysis by replica theory describes the thermodynamic properties of the model. Our analysis confirms an entropy crisis preceding the non-convergence of the message passing equation, suggesting a discontinuous phase transition as a key characteristic of the restricted Boltzmann machine. Continuous phase transition is also confirmed depending on the embedded feature strength in the data. The mean-field result under the replica symmetric assumption agrees with that obtained by running message passing algorithms on single instances of finite sizes. Interestingly, in an approximate Hopfield model, the entropy crisis is absent, and a continuous phase transition is observed instead. We also develop an iterative equation to infer the hyper-parameter (temperature) hidden in the data, which in physics corresponds to iteratively imposing Nishimori condition. Our study provides insights towards understanding the thermodynamic properties of the restricted Boltzmann machine learning, and moreover important theoretical basis to build simplified deep networks.

Support Vector Feature Selection for Early Detection of Anastomosis Leakage From Bag-of-Words in Electronic Health Records.

PubMed

Soguero-Ruiz, Cristina; Hindberg, Kristian; Rojo-Alvarez, Jose Luis; Skrovseth, Stein Olav; Godtliebsen, Fred; Mortensen, Kim; Revhaug, Arthur; Lindsetmo, Rolv-Ole; Augestad, Knut Magne; Jenssen, Robert

2016-09-01

The free text in electronic health records (EHRs) conveys a huge amount of clinical information about health state and patient history. Despite a rapidly growing literature on the use of machine learning techniques for extracting this information, little effort has been invested toward feature selection and the features' corresponding medical interpretation. In this study, we focus on the task of early detection of anastomosis leakage (AL), a severe complication after elective surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery, using free text extracted from EHRs. We use a bag-of-words model to investigate the potential for feature selection strategies. The purpose is earlier detection of AL and prediction of AL with data generated in the EHR before the actual complication occur. Due to the high dimensionality of the data, we derive feature selection strategies using the robust support vector machine linear maximum margin classifier, by investigating: 1) a simple statistical criterion (leave-one-out-based test); 2) an intensive-computation statistical criterion (Bootstrap resampling); and 3) an advanced statistical criterion (kernel entropy). Results reveal a discriminatory power for early detection of complications after CRC (sensitivity 100%; specificity 72%). These results can be used to develop prediction models, based on EHR data, that can support surgeons and patients in the preoperative decision making phase.

Statistical modeling implicates neuroanatomical circuit mediating stress relief by ‘comfort’ food

PubMed Central

Ulrich-Lai, Yvonne M.; Christiansen, Anne M.; Wang, Xia; Song, Seongho; Herman, James P.

2015-01-01

A history of eating highly-palatable foods reduces physiological and emotional responses to stress. For instance, we have previously shown that limited sucrose intake (4 ml of 30% sucrose twice daily for 14 days) reduces hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis responses to stress. However, the neural mechanisms underlying stress relief by such ‘comfort’ foods are unclear, and could reveal an endogenous brain pathway for stress mitigation. As such, the present work assessed the expression of several proteins related to neuronal activation and/or plasticity in multiple stress- and reward-regulatory brain regions of rats after limited sucrose (vs. water control) intake. These data were then subjected to a series of statistical analyses, including Bayesian modeling, to identify the most likely neurocircuit mediating stress relief by sucrose. The analyses suggest that sucrose reduces HPA activation by dampening an excitatory basolateral amygdala - medial amygdala circuit, while also potentiating an inhibitory bed nucleus of the stria terminalis principle subdivision-mediated circuit, resulting in reduced HPA activation after stress. Collectively, the results support the hypothesis that sucrose limits stress responses via plastic changes to the structure and function of stress-regulatory neural circuits. The work also illustrates that advanced statistical methods are useful approaches to identify potentially novel and important underlying relationships in biological data sets. PMID:26246177

Statistical modeling implicates neuroanatomical circuit mediating stress relief by 'comfort' food.

PubMed

Ulrich-Lai, Yvonne M; Christiansen, Anne M; Wang, Xia; Song, Seongho; Herman, James P

2016-07-01

A history of eating highly palatable foods reduces physiological and emotional responses to stress. For instance, we have previously shown that limited sucrose intake (4 ml of 30 % sucrose twice daily for 14 days) reduces hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis responses to stress. However, the neural mechanisms underlying stress relief by such 'comfort' foods are unclear, and could reveal an endogenous brain pathway for stress mitigation. As such, the present work assessed the expression of several proteins related to neuronal activation and/or plasticity in multiple stress- and reward-regulatory brain regions of rats after limited sucrose (vs. water control) intake. These data were then subjected to a series of statistical analyses, including Bayesian modeling, to identify the most likely neurocircuit mediating stress relief by sucrose. The analyses suggest that sucrose reduces HPA activation by dampening an excitatory basolateral amygdala-medial amygdala circuit, while also potentiating an inhibitory bed nucleus of the stria terminalis principle subdivision-mediated circuit, resulting in reduced HPA activation after stress. Collectively, the results support the hypothesis that sucrose limits stress responses via plastic changes to the structure and function of stress-regulatory neural circuits. The work also illustrates that advanced statistical methods are useful approaches to identify potentially novel and important underlying relationships in biological datasets.

Impact of South American heroin on the US heroin market 1993–2004

PubMed Central

Ciccarone, Daniel; Unick, George J; Kraus, Allison

2008-01-01

Background The past two decades have seen an increase in heroin-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. We report on trends in US heroin retail price and purity, including the effect of entry of Colombian-sourced heroin on the US heroin market. Methods The average standardized price ($/mg-pure) and purity (% by weight) of heroin from 1993 to 2004 was from obtained from US Drug Enforcement Agency retail purchase data for 20 metropolitan statistical areas. Univariate statistics, robust Ordinary Least Squares regression and mixed fixed and random effect growth curve models were used to predict the price and purity data in each metropolitan statistical area over time. Results Over the 12 study years, heroin price decreased 62%. The median percentage of all heroin samples that are of South American origin increased an absolute 7% per year. Multivariate models suggest percent South American heroin is a significant predictor of lower heroin price and higher purity adjusting for time and demographics. Conclusion These analyses reveal trends to historically low-cost heroin in many US cities. These changes correspond to the entrance into and rapid domination of the US heroin market by Colombian-sourced heroin. The implications of these changes are discussed. PMID:19201184

Global map of lithosphere thermal thickness on a 1 deg x 1 deg grid - digitally available

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Artemieva, Irina

2014-05-01

This presentation reports a 1 deg ×1 deg global thermal model for the continental lithosphere (TC1). The model is digitally available from the author's web-site: www.lithosphere.info. Geotherms for continental terranes of different ages (early Archean to present) are constrained by reliable data on borehole heat flow measurements (Artemieva and Mooney, 2001), checked with the original publications for data quality, and corrected for paleo-temperature effects where needed. These data are supplemented by cratonic geotherms based on xenolith data. Since heat flow measurements cover not more than half of the continents, the remaining areas (ca. 60% of the continents) are filled by the statistical numbers derived from the thermal model constrained by borehole data. Continental geotherms are statistically analyzed as a function of age and are used to estimate lithospheric temperatures in continental regions with no or low quality heat flow data. This analysis requires knowledge of lithosphere age globally. A compilation of tectono-thermal ages of lithospheric terranes on a 1 deg × 1 deg grid forms the basis for the statistical analysis. It shows that, statistically, lithospheric thermal thickness z (in km) depends on tectono-thermal age t (in Ma) as: z=0.04t+93.6. This relationship formed the basis for a global thermal model of the continental lithosphere (TC1). Statistical analysis of continental geotherms also reveals that this relationship holds for the Archean cratons in general, but not in detail. Particularly, thick (more than 250 km) lithosphere is restricted solely to young Archean terranes (3.0-2.6 Ga), while in old Archean cratons (3.6-3.0 Ga) lithospheric roots do not extend deeper than 200-220 km. The TC1 model is presented by a set of maps, which show significant thermal heterogeneity within continental upper mantle. The strongest lateral temperature variations (as large as 800 deg C) are typical of the shallow mantle (depth less than 100 km). A map of the depth to a 600 deg C isotherm in continental upper mantle is presented as a proxy to the elastic thickness of the cratonic lithosphere, in which flexural rigidity is dominated by olivine rheology of the mantle. The TC1 model of the lithosphere thickness is used to calculate the growth and preservation rates of the lithosphere since the Archean.

Deciphering Deposits: Using Ground Penetrating Radar and Numerical Modeling to Characterize the Emplacement Mechanisms and Associated Energetics of Scoria Cone Eruption and Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courtland, Leah M.

Our understanding of tephra depositional processes is significantly improved by high-resolution ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data collected at Cerro Negro volcano, Nicaragua. The data reveal three depositional regimes: (1) a near-vent region on the cone itself, where 10 GPR radargrams collected on the western flank show quantifiable differences between facies formed from low energy normal Strombolian and higher energy violent Strombolian processes, indicating imaging of scoria cone deposits may be useful in distinguishing eruptive style in older cones where the proximal to distal tephra blanket has eroded away; (2) a proximal zone in which horizons identified in crosswind profiles collected at distances of 700 and 1,000 m from the vent exhibit Gaussian distributions with a high degree of statistical confidence, with tephra thickness decreasing exponentially downwind from the cone base (350 m) to ~ 1,200 m from the vent, and where particles fall from a height of less than ~2 km; and (3) a medial zone, in which particles fall from ~4 to 7 km and the deposit is thicker than expected based on thinning trends observed in the proximal zone of the deposit, indicating a transition from sedimentation dominated by fallout from plume margins to that dominated by fallout from the buoyant eruption cloud. Horizons identified in a crosswind profile at 1600 m from vent exhibit Gaussian distributions, again with high degrees of statistical confidence. True diffusion coefficients are calculated from Gaussian fits of crosswind profiles and do not show any statistical variation between zones (2) and (3). Data display thinning trends that agree with the morphology predicted by the advection-diffusion equation to a high degree of statistical confidence, validating the use of this class of models in tephra forecasting. One such model, the Tephra2 model, is reformulated for student use. A strategy is presented for utilizing this research-caliber model to introduce university undergraduates to key concepts in model literacy, encouraging students to develop a deeper understanding of the applicability and limitations of hazard models generally. For this purpose, the Tephra2 numerical model is implemented on the VHub.org website, a venture in cyberinfrastructure that brings together volcanological models and educational materials, and provides students with the ability to explore and execute sophisticated numerical models like Tephra2.

Characterizing Dark Energy Through Supernovae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tamara M.; Parkinson, David

Type Ia supernovae are a powerful cosmological probe that gave the first strong evidence that the expansion of the universe is accelerating. Here we provide an overview of how supernovae can go further to reveal information about what is causing the acceleration, be it dark energy or some modification to our laws of gravity. We first review the methods of statistical inference that are commonly used, making a point of separating parameter estimation from model selection. We then summarize the many different approaches used to explain or test the acceleration, including parametric models (like the standard model, ΛCDM), nonparametric models, dark fluid models such as quintessence, and extensions to standard gravity. Finally, we also show how supernova data can be used beyond the Hubble diagram, to give information on gravitational lensing and peculiar velocities that can be used to distinguish between models that predict the same expansion history.

An integrative model of organizational safety behavior.

PubMed

Cui, Lin; Fan, Di; Fu, Gui; Zhu, Cherrie Jiuhua

2013-06-01

This study develops an integrative model of safety management based on social cognitive theory and the total safety culture triadic framework. The purpose of the model is to reveal the causal linkages between a hazardous environment, safety climate, and individual safety behaviors. Based on primary survey data from 209 front-line workers in one of the largest state-owned coal mining corporations in China, the model is tested using structural equation modeling techniques. An employee's perception of a hazardous environment is found to have a statistically significant impact on employee safety behaviors through a psychological process mediated by the perception of management commitment to safety and individual beliefs about safety. The integrative model developed here leads to a comprehensive solution that takes into consideration the environmental, organizational and employees' psychological and behavioral aspects of safety management. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Discrete-element modeling of nacre-like materials: Effects of random microstructures on strain localization and mechanical performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abid, Najmul; Mirkhalaf, Mohammad; Barthelat, Francois

2018-03-01

Natural materials such as nacre, collagen, and spider silk are composed of staggered stiff and strong inclusions in a softer matrix. This type of hybrid microstructure results in remarkable combinations of stiffness, strength, and toughness and it now inspires novel classes of high-performance composites. However, the analytical and numerical approaches used to predict and optimize the mechanics of staggered composites often neglect statistical variations and inhomogeneities, which may have significant impacts on modulus, strength, and toughness. Here we present an analysis of localization using small representative volume elements (RVEs) and large scale statistical volume elements (SVEs) based on the discrete element method (DEM). DEM is an efficient numerical method which enabled the evaluation of more than 10,000 microstructures in this study, each including about 5,000 inclusions. The models explore the combined effects of statistics, inclusion arrangement, and interface properties. We find that statistical variations have a negative effect on all properties, in particular on the ductility and energy absorption because randomness precipitates the localization of deformations. However, the results also show that the negative effects of random microstructures can be offset by interfaces with large strain at failure accompanied by strain hardening. More specifically, this quantitative study reveals an optimal range of interface properties where the interfaces are the most effective at delaying localization. These findings show how carefully designed interfaces in bioinspired staggered composites can offset the negative effects of microstructural randomness, which is inherent to most current fabrication methods.

The Increased Sensitivity of Irregular Peripheral Canal and Otolith Vestibular Afferents Optimizes their Encoding of Natural Stimuli

PubMed Central

Schneider, Adam D.; Jamali, Mohsen; Carriot, Jerome; Chacron, Maurice J.

2015-01-01

Efficient processing of incoming sensory input is essential for an organism's survival. A growing body of evidence suggests that sensory systems have developed coding strategies that are constrained by the statistics of the natural environment. Consequently, it is necessary to first characterize neural responses to natural stimuli to uncover the coding strategies used by a given sensory system. Here we report for the first time the statistics of vestibular rotational and translational stimuli experienced by rhesus monkeys during natural (e.g., walking, grooming) behaviors. We find that these stimuli can reach intensities as high as 1500 deg/s and 8 G. Recordings from afferents during naturalistic rotational and linear motion further revealed strongly nonlinear responses in the form of rectification and saturation, which could not be accurately predicted by traditional linear models of vestibular processing. Accordingly, we used linear–nonlinear cascade models and found that these could accurately predict responses to naturalistic stimuli. Finally, we tested whether the statistics of natural vestibular signals constrain the neural coding strategies used by peripheral afferents. We found that both irregular otolith and semicircular canal afferents, because of their higher sensitivities, were more optimized for processing natural vestibular stimuli as compared with their regular counterparts. Our results therefore provide the first evidence supporting the hypothesis that the neural coding strategies used by the vestibular system are matched to the statistics of natural stimuli. PMID:25855169

Will Outer Tropical Cyclone Size Change due to Anthropogenic Warming?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schenkel, B. A.; Lin, N.; Chavas, D. R.; Vecchi, G. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Oppenheimer, M.

2017-12-01

Prior research has shown significant interbasin and intrabasin variability in outer tropical cyclone (TC) size. Moreover, outer TC size has even been shown to vary substantially over the lifetime of the majority of TCs. However, the factors responsible for both setting initial outer TC size and determining its evolution throughout the TC lifetime remain uncertain. Given these gaps in our physical understanding, there remains uncertainty in how outer TC size will change, if at all, due to anthropogenic warming. The present study seeks to quantify whether outer TC size will change significantly in response to anthropogenic warming using data from a high-resolution global climate model and a regional hurricane model. Similar to prior work, the outer TC size metric used in this study is the radius in which the azimuthal-mean surface azimuthal wind equals 8 m/s. The initial results from the high-resolution global climate model data suggest that the distribution of outer TC size shifts significantly towards larger values in each global TC basin during future climates, as revealed by 1) statistically significant increase of the median outer TC size by 5-10% (p<0.05) according to a 1,000-sample bootstrap resampling approach with replacement and 2) statistically significant differences between distributions of outer TC size from current and future climate simulations as shown using two-sample Kolmogorov Smirnov testing (p<<0.01). Additional analysis of the high-resolution global climate model data reveals that outer TC size does not uniformly increase within each basin in future climates, but rather shows substantial locational dependence. Future work will incorporate the regional mesoscale hurricane model data to help focus on identifying the source of the spatial variability in outer TC size increases within each basin during future climates and, more importantly, why outer TC size changes in response to anthropogenic warming.

Comparative genomic de-convolution of the cotton genome revealed a decaploid ancestor and widespread chromosomal fractionation.

PubMed

Wang, Xiyin; Guo, Hui; Wang, Jinpeng; Lei, Tianyu; Liu, Tao; Wang, Zhenyi; Li, Yuxian; Lee, Tae-Ho; Li, Jingping; Tang, Haibao; Jin, Dianchuan; Paterson, Andrew H

2016-02-01

The 'apparently' simple genomes of many angiosperms mask complex evolutionary histories. The reference genome sequence for cotton (Gossypium spp.) revealed a ploidy change of a complexity unprecedented to date, indeed that could not be distinguished as to its exact dosage. Herein, by developing several comparative, computational and statistical approaches, we revealed a 5× multiplication in the cotton lineage of an ancestral genome common to cotton and cacao, and proposed evolutionary models to show how such a decaploid ancestor formed. The c. 70% gene loss necessary to bring the ancestral decaploid to its current gene count appears to fit an approximate geometrical model; that is, although many genes may be lost by single-gene deletion events, some may be lost in groups of consecutive genes. Gene loss following cotton decaploidy has largely just reduced gene copy numbers of some homologous groups. We designed a novel approach to deconvolute layers of chromosome homology, providing definitive information on gene orthology and paralogy across broad evolutionary distances, both of fundamental value and serving as an important platform to support further studies in and beyond cotton and genomics communities. No claim to original US government works. New Phytologist © 2015 New Phytologist Trust.

Predicting Outcomes After Chemo-Embolization in Patients with Advanced-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Evaluation of Different Radiologic Response Criteria

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gunn, Andrew J., E-mail: agunn@uabmc.edu; Sheth, Rahul A.; Luber, Brandon

2017-01-15

PurposeThe purpse of this study was to evaluate the ability of various radiologic response criteria to predict patient outcomes after trans-arterial chemo-embolization with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE) in patients with advanced-stage (BCLC C) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).Materials and methodsHospital records from 2005 to 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Non-infiltrative lesions were measured at baseline and on follow-up scans after DEB-TACE according to various common radiologic response criteria, including guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO), Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), and modified RECIST (mRECIST). Statistical analysis was performed to see which,more » if any, of the response criteria could be used as a predictor of overall survival (OS) or time-to-progression (TTP).Results75 patients met inclusion criteria. Median OS and TTP were 22.6 months (95 % CI 11.6–24.8) and 9.8 months (95 % CI 7.1–21.6), respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses revealed that none of the evaluated criteria had the ability to be used as a predictor for OS or TTP. Analysis of the C index in both univariate and multivariate models showed that the evaluated criteria were not accurate predictors of either OS (C-statistic range: 0.51–0.58 in the univariate model; range: 0.54–0.58 in the multivariate model) or TTP (C-statistic range: 0.55–0.59 in the univariate model; range: 0.57–0.61 in the multivariate model).ConclusionCurrent response criteria are not accurate predictors of OS or TTP in patients with advanced-stage HCC after DEB-TACE.« less

Predicting Outcomes After Chemo-Embolization in Patients with Advanced-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: An Evaluation of Different Radiologic Response Criteria.

PubMed

Gunn, Andrew J; Sheth, Rahul A; Luber, Brandon; Huynh, Minh-Huy; Rachamreddy, Niranjan R; Kalva, Sanjeeva P

2017-01-01

The purpse of this study was to evaluate the ability of various radiologic response criteria to predict patient outcomes after trans-arterial chemo-embolization with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE) in patients with advanced-stage (BCLC C) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hospital records from 2005 to 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. Non-infiltrative lesions were measured at baseline and on follow-up scans after DEB-TACE according to various common radiologic response criteria, including guidelines of the World Health Organization (WHO), Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), and modified RECIST (mRECIST). Statistical analysis was performed to see which, if any, of the response criteria could be used as a predictor of overall survival (OS) or time-to-progression (TTP). 75 patients met inclusion criteria. Median OS and TTP were 22.6 months (95 % CI 11.6-24.8) and 9.8 months (95 % CI 7.1-21.6), respectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses revealed that none of the evaluated criteria had the ability to be used as a predictor for OS or TTP. Analysis of the C index in both univariate and multivariate models showed that the evaluated criteria were not accurate predictors of either OS (C-statistic range: 0.51-0.58 in the univariate model; range: 0.54-0.58 in the multivariate model) or TTP (C-statistic range: 0.55-0.59 in the univariate model; range: 0.57-0.61 in the multivariate model). Current response criteria are not accurate predictors of OS or TTP in patients with advanced-stage HCC after DEB-TACE.

Results of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project: Evaluation of sea ice rheology schemes for use in climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreyscher, Martin; Harder, Markus; Lemke, Peter; Flato, Gregory M.

2000-05-01

A hierarchy of sea ice rheologies is evaluated on the basis of a comprehensive set of observational data. The investigations are part of the Sea Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP). Four different sea ice rheology schemes are compared: a viscous-plastic rheology, a cavitating-fluid model, a compressible Newtonian fluid, and a simple free drift approach with velocity correction. The same grid, land boundaries, and forcing fields are applied to all models. As verification data, there are (1) ice thickness data from upward looking sonars (ULS), (2) ice concentration data from the passive microwave radiometers SMMR and SSM/I, (3) daily buoy drift data obtained by the International Arctic Buoy Program (IABP), and (4) satellite-derived ice drift fields based on the 85 GHz channel of SSM/I. All models are optimized individually with respect to mean drift speed and daily drift speed statistics. The impact of ice strength on the ice cover is best revealed by the spatial pattern of ice thickness, ice drift on different timescales, daily drift speed statistics, and the drift velocities in Fram Strait. Overall, the viscous-plastic rheology yields the most realistic simulation. In contrast, the results of the very simple free-drift model with velocity correction clearly show large errors in simulated ice drift as well as in ice thicknesses and ice export through Fram Strait compared to observation. The compressible Newtonian fluid cannot prevent excessive ice thickness buildup in the central Arctic and overestimates the internal forces in Fram Strait. Because of the lack of shear strength, the cavitating-fluid model shows marked differences to the statistics of observed ice drift and the observed spatial pattern of ice thickness. Comparison of required computer resources demonstrates that the additional cost for the viscous-plastic sea ice rheology is minor compared with the atmospheric and oceanic model components in global climate simulations.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database Mortality Risk Model: Part 1—Statistical Methodology

PubMed Central

O’Brien, Sean M.; Jacobs, Jeffrey P.; Pasquali, Sara K.; Gaynor, J. William; Karamlou, Tara; Welke, Karl F.; Filardo, Giovanni; Han, Jane M.; Kim, Sunghee; Shahian, David M.; Jacobs, Marshall L.

2016-01-01

Background This study’s objective was to develop a risk model incorporating procedure type and patient factors to be used for case-mix adjustment in the analysis of hospital-specific operative mortality rates after congenital cardiac operations. Methods Included were patients of all ages undergoing cardiac operations, with or without cardiopulmonary bypass, at centers participating in The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database during January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2013. Excluded were isolated patent ductus arteriosus closures in patients weighing less than or equal to 2.5 kg, centers with more than 10% missing data, and patients with missing data for key variables. Data from the first 3.5 years were used for model development, and data from the last 0.5 year were used for assessing model discrimination and calibration. Potential risk factors were proposed based on expert consensus and selected after empirically comparing a variety of modeling options. Results The study cohort included 52,224 patients from 86 centers with 1,931 deaths (3.7%). Covariates included in the model were primary procedure, age, weight, and 11 additional patient factors reflecting acuity status and comorbidities. The C statistic in the validation sample was 0.858. Plots of observed-vs-expected mortality rates revealed good calibration overall and within subgroups, except for a slight overestimation of risk in the highest decile of predicted risk. Removing patient preoperative factors from the model reduced the C statistic to 0.831 and affected the performance classification for 12 of 86 hospitals. Conclusions The risk model is well suited to adjust for case mix in the analysis and reporting of hospital-specific mortality for congenital heart operations. Inclusion of patient factors added useful discriminatory power and reduced bias in the calculation of hospital-specific mortality metrics. PMID:26245502

Meta-Analysis of Correlations Between Marginal Bone Resorption and High Insertion Torque of Dental Implants.

PubMed

Li, Haoyan; Liang, Yongqiang; Zheng, Qiang

2015-01-01

To evaluate correlations between marginal bone resorption and high insertion torque value (> 50 Ncm) of dental implants and to assess the significance of immediate and early/conventional loading of implants under a certain range torque value. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to retrieve eligible articles from Ovid, PubMed, and EBSCO up to December 2013. Screening of eligible studies, quality assessment, and data extraction were conducted in duplicate. The results were expressed as random/fixed-effects models using weighted mean differences for continuous outcomes with 95% confidence intervals. Initially, 154 articles were selected (11 from Ovid, 112 from PubMed, and 31 from EBSCO). After exclusion of duplicate articles and articles that did not meet the inclusion criteria, six clinical studies were selected. Assessment of P values revealed that correlations between marginal bone resorption and high insertion torque were not statistically significant and that there was no difference between immediately versus early/conventionally loaded implants under a certain range of torque. None of the meta-analyses revealed any statistically significant differences between high insertion torque and conventional insertion torque in terms of effects on marginal bone resorption.

The propagation of inventory-based positional errors into statistical landslide susceptibility models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steger, Stefan; Brenning, Alexander; Bell, Rainer; Glade, Thomas

2016-12-01

There is unanimous agreement that a precise spatial representation of past landslide occurrences is a prerequisite to produce high quality statistical landslide susceptibility models. Even though perfectly accurate landslide inventories rarely exist, investigations of how landslide inventory-based errors propagate into subsequent statistical landslide susceptibility models are scarce. The main objective of this research was to systematically examine whether and how inventory-based positional inaccuracies of different magnitudes influence modelled relationships, validation results, variable importance and the visual appearance of landslide susceptibility maps. The study was conducted for a landslide-prone site located in the districts of Amstetten and Waidhofen an der Ybbs, eastern Austria, where an earth-slide point inventory was available. The methodological approach comprised an artificial introduction of inventory-based positional errors into the present landslide data set and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Positional errors were introduced by artificially changing the original landslide position by a mean distance of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 120 m. The resulting differently precise response variables were separately used to train logistic regression models. Odds ratios of predictor variables provided insights into modelled relationships. Cross-validation and spatial cross-validation enabled an assessment of predictive performances and permutation-based variable importance. All analyses were additionally carried out with synthetically generated data sets to further verify the findings under rather controlled conditions. The results revealed that an increasing positional inventory-based error was generally related to increasing distortions of modelling and validation results. However, the findings also highlighted that interdependencies between inventory-based spatial inaccuracies and statistical landslide susceptibility models are complex. The systematic comparisons of 12 models provided valuable evidence that the respective error-propagation was not only determined by the degree of positional inaccuracy inherent in the landslide data, but also by the spatial representation of landslides and the environment, landslide magnitude, the characteristics of the study area, the selected classification method and an interplay of predictors within multiple variable models. Based on the results, we deduced that a direct propagation of minor to moderate inventory-based positional errors into modelling results can be partly counteracted by adapting the modelling design (e.g. generalization of input data, opting for strongly generalizing classifiers). Since positional errors within landslide inventories are common and subsequent modelling and validation results are likely to be distorted, the potential existence of inventory-based positional inaccuracies should always be considered when assessing landslide susceptibility by means of empirical models.

Drinking to Cope as a Statistical Mediator in the Relationship Between Suicidal Ideation and Alcohol Outcomes Among Underage College Drinkers

PubMed Central

Gonzalez, Vivian M.; Bradizza, Clara M.; Collins, R. Lorraine

2009-01-01

Etiological models of alcohol use that highlight the role of negative affect and depression have not been applied to research on the association of suicidality and alcohol use. We sought to rectify this oversight by examining whether a motivational model of alcohol use could be applied to understanding the relationship between suicidal ideation and alcohol outcomes in a sample of underage college drinkers who had a history of passive suicidal ideation (n = 91). In this cross-sectional study, regression analyses were conducted to examine whether drinking to cope with negative affect statistically mediated or was an intervening variable in the association between suicidal ideation and alcohol outcomes. The results revealed that drinking to cope was a significant intervening variable in the relationships between suicidal ideation and alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking, and alcohol problems, even while controlling for depression. These results suggest that the relationship between suicidal ideation and alcohol outcomes may be due to individuals using alcohol to regulate or escape the distress associated with suicidal ideation. Consideration of alcohol-related models can improve the conceptualization of research on suicidality and alcohol use. PMID:19769428

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities

PubMed Central

Kwan, Paul; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus. An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops. PMID:28875085

Remote sensing and spatial statistical techniques for modelling Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) habitat and population densities.

PubMed

Al-Kindi, Khalifa M; Kwan, Paul; R Andrew, Nigel; Welch, Mitchell

2017-01-01

In order to understand the distribution and prevalence of Ommatissus lybicus (Hemiptera: Tropiduchidae) as well as analyse their current biographical patterns and predict their future spread, comprehensive and detailed information on the environmental, climatic, and agricultural practices are essential. The spatial analytical techniques such as Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics Tools, can help detect and model spatial links and correlations between the presence, absence and density of O. lybicus in response to climatic, environmental, and human factors. The main objective of this paper is to review remote sensing and relevant analytical techniques that can be applied in mapping and modelling the habitat and population density of O. lybicus . An exhaustive search of related literature revealed that there are very limited studies linking location-based infestation levels of pests like the O. lybicus with climatic, environmental, and human practice related variables. This review also highlights the accumulated knowledge and addresses the gaps in this area of research. Furthermore, it makes recommendations for future studies, and gives suggestions on monitoring and surveillance methods in designing both local and regional level integrated pest management strategies of palm tree and other affected cultivated crops.

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE)

PubMed Central

Boker, Steven M.; Brick, Timothy R.; Pritikin, Joshua N.; Wang, Yang; von Oertzen, Timo; Brown, Donald; Lach, John; Estabrook, Ryne; Hunter, Michael D.; Maes, Hermine H.; Neale, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Maintained Individual Data Distributed Likelihood Estimation (MIDDLE) is a novel paradigm for research in the behavioral, social, and health sciences. The MIDDLE approach is based on the seemingly-impossible idea that data can be privately maintained by participants and never revealed to researchers, while still enabling statistical models to be fit and scientific hypotheses tested. MIDDLE rests on the assumption that participant data should belong to, be controlled by, and remain in the possession of the participants themselves. Distributed likelihood estimation refers to fitting statistical models by sending an objective function and vector of parameters to each participants’ personal device (e.g., smartphone, tablet, computer), where the likelihood of that individual’s data is calculated locally. Only the likelihood value is returned to the central optimizer. The optimizer aggregates likelihood values from responding participants and chooses new vectors of parameters until the model converges. A MIDDLE study provides significantly greater privacy for participants, automatic management of opt-in and opt-out consent, lower cost for the researcher and funding institute, and faster determination of results. Furthermore, if a participant opts into several studies simultaneously and opts into data sharing, these studies automatically have access to individual-level longitudinal data linked across all studies. PMID:26717128

Psychometric properties of the PTSD Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition (PCL-5) in veterans.

PubMed

Bovin, Michelle J; Marx, Brian P; Weathers, Frank W; Gallagher, Matthew W; Rodriguez, Paola; Schnurr, Paula P; Keane, Terence M

2016-11-01

This study examined the psychometric properties of the posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) Checklist for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition (PCL-5; Weathers, Litz, et al., 2013b) in 2 independent samples of veterans receiving care at a Veterans Affairs Medical Center (N = 468). A subsample of these participants (n = 140) was used to define a valid diagnostic cutoff score for the instrument using the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale for DSM-5 (CAPS-5; Weathers, Blake, et al., 2013) as the reference standard. The PCL-5 test scores demonstrated good internal consistency (α = .96), test-retest reliability (r = .84), and convergent and discriminant validity. Consistent with previous studies (Armour et al., 2015; Liu et al., 2014), confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the data were best explained by a 6-factor anhedonia model and a 7-factor hybrid model. Signal detection analyses using the CAPS-5 revealed that PCL-5 scores of 31 to 33 were optimally efficient for diagnosing PTSD (κ(.5) = .58). Overall, the findings suggest that the PCL-5 is a psychometrically sound instrument that can be used effectively with veterans. Further, by determining a valid cutoff score using the CAPS-5, the PCL-5 can now be used to identify veterans with probable PTSD. However, findings also suggest the need for research to evaluate cluster structure of DSM-5. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Sequential imaging of asymptomatic carotid atheroma using ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging: a feasibility study.

PubMed

Sadat, Umar; Howarth, Simon P S; Usman, Ammara; Tang, Tjun Y; Graves, Martin J; Gillard, Jonathan H

2013-11-01

Inflammation within atheromatous plaques is a known risk factor for plaque vulnerability. This can be detected in vivo on high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide (USPIO) contrast medium. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of performing sequential USPIO studies over a 1-year period. Ten patients with moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis underwent carotid MRI imaging both before and 36 hours after USPIO infusion at 0, 6, and 12 months. Images were manually segmented into quadrants, and the signal change per quadrant was calculated at these time points. A mixed repeated measures statistical model was used to determine signal change attributable to USPIO uptake over time. All patients remained asymptomatic during the study. The mixed model revealed no statistical difference in USPIO uptake between the 3 time points. Intraclass correlation coefficients revealed a good agreement of quadrant signal pre-USPIO infusion between 0 and 6 months (0.70) and 0 and 12 months (0.70). Good agreement of quadrant signal after USPIO infusion was shown between 0 and 6 months (0.68) and moderate agreement was shown between 0 and 12 months (0.33). USPIO-enhanced sequential MRI of atheromatous carotid plaques is clinically feasible. This may have important implications for future longitudinal studies involving pharmacologic intervention in large patient cohorts. Copyright © 2013 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploratory analysis of the potential relationship between urinary molybdenum and bone mineral density among adult men and women from NHANES 2007-2010.

PubMed

Lewis, Ryan C; Johns, Lauren E; Meeker, John D

2016-12-01

Human exposure to molybdenum (Mo) may play a role in reducing bone mineral density (BMD) by interfering with steroid sex hormone levels. To begin to address gaps in the literature on this topic, the potential relationship between urinary Mo (U-Mo) and BMD at the femoral neck (FN-BMD) and lumbar spine (LS-BMD) was explored in a sample of 1496 adults participating in the 2007-2010 cycles of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Associations were assessed using multiple linear regression models stratified on sex and age. In adjusted models for 50-80+ year-old women, there was a statistically significant inverse relationship between natural log-U-Mo and LS-BMD (p-value: 0.002), and a statistically significant dose-dependent decrease in LS-BMD with increasing U-Mo quartiles (trend p-value: 0.002). A suggestive (trend p-value: 0.08), dose-dependent decrease in FN-BMD with increasing U-Mo quartiles was noted in this group of women as well. All other adjusted models revealed no statistically significant or suggestive relationships between U-Mo and FN-BMD or LS-BMD. Bone health is important for overall human health and well-being and, given the exploratory nature of this work, additional studies are needed to confirm the results in other populations, and clarify the potential underlying mechanisms of Mo on BMD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absolute plate motions relative to deep mantle plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shimin; Yu, Hongzheng; Zhang, Qiong; Zhao, Yonghong

2018-05-01

Advances in whole waveform seismic tomography have revealed the presence of broad mantle plumes rooted at the base of the Earth's mantle beneath major hotspots. Hotspot tracks associated with these deep mantle plumes provide ideal constraints for inverting absolute plate motions as well as testing the fixed hotspot hypothesis. In this paper, 27 observed hotspot trends associated with 24 deep mantle plumes are used together with the MORVEL model for relative plate motions to determine an absolute plate motion model, in terms of a maximum likelihood optimization for angular data fitting, combined with an outlier data detection procedure based on statistical tests. The obtained T25M model fits 25 observed trends of globally distributed hotspot tracks to the statistically required level, while the other two hotspot trend data (Comores on Somalia and Iceland on Eurasia) are identified as outliers, which are significantly incompatible with other data. For most hotspots with rate data available, T25M predicts plate velocities significantly lower than the observed rates of hotspot volcanic migration, which cannot be fully explained by biased errors in observed rate data. Instead, the apparent hotspot motions derived by subtracting the observed hotspot migration velocities from the T25M plate velocities exhibit a combined pattern of being opposite to plate velocities and moving towards mid-ocean ridges. The newly estimated net rotation of the lithosphere is statistically compatible with three recent estimates, but differs significantly from 30 of 33 prior estimates.

Streamwise Evolution of Statistical Events in a Model Wind-Turbine Array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viestenz, Kyle; Cal, Raúl Bayoán

2016-02-01

Hot-wire anemometry data, obtained from a wind-tunnel experiment containing a 3 × 3 model wind-turbine array, are used to conditionally average the Reynolds stresses. Nine profiles at the centreline behind the array are analyzed to characterize the turbulent velocity statistics of the wake flow. Quadrant analysis yields statistical events occurring in the wake of the wind farm where quadrants 2 and 4 produce ejections and sweeps, respectively. The scaled difference between these two events is expressed via the Δ R0 parameter and is based on the Δ S0 quantity as introduced by M. R. Raupach (J Fluid Mech 108:363-382, 1981). Δ R0 attains a maximum value at hub height and changes sign near the top of the rotor. The ratio of quadrant events of upward momentum flux to those of the downward flux, known as the exuberance, is examined and reveals the effect of root vortices persisting to eight rotor diameters downstream. These events are then associated with the triple correlation term present in the turbulent kinetic energy equation of the fluctuations where it is found that ejections play the dual role of entraining mean kinetic energy while convecting turbulent kinetic energy out of the turbine canopy. The development of these various quantities possesses significance in closure models, and is assessed in light of wake remediation, energy transport and power fluctuations, where it is found that the maximum fluctuation is about 30% of the mean power produced.

The Sensitivity of the Midlatitude Moist Isentropic Circulation on Both Sides of the Climate Model Hierarchy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fajber, R. A.; Kushner, P. J.; Laliberte, F. B.

2017-12-01

In the midlatitude atmosphere, baroclinic eddies are able to raise warm, moist air from the surface into the midtroposphere where it condenses and warms the atmosphere through latent heating. This coupling between dynamics and moist thermodynamics motivates using a conserved moist thermodynamic variable, such as the equivalent potential temperature, to study the midlatitude circulation and associated heat transport since it implicitly accounts for latent heating. When the equivalent potential temperature is used to zonally average the circulation, the moist isentropic circulation takes the form of a single cell in each hemisphere. By utilising the statistical transformed Eulerian mean (STEM) circulation we are able to parametrize the moist isentropic circulation in terms of second order dynamic and moist thermodynamic statistics. The functional dependence of the STEM allows us to analytically calculate functional derivatives that reveal the spatially varying sensitivity of the moist isentropic circulation to perturbations in different statistics. Using the STEM functional derivatives as sensitivity kernels we interpret changes in the moist isentropic circulation from two experiments: surface heating in an idealised moist model, and a climate change scenario in a comprehensive atmospheric general circulation model. In both cases we find that the changes in the moist isentropic circulation are well predicted by the functional sensitivities, and that the total heat transport is more sensitive to changes in dynamical processes driving local changes in poleward heat transport than it is to thermodynamic and/or radiative processes driving changes to the distribution of equivalent potential temperature.

Maternal factors predicting cognitive and behavioral characteristics of children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders.

PubMed

May, Philip A; Tabachnick, Barbara G; Gossage, J Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K; Manning, Melanie A; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M

2013-06-01

To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASDs). Multivariate correlation techniques were used with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first-grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and used in structural equation models (SEMs) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and nonverbal) and behavior. A first SEM using only 7 maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05) but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status [SES], and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Although other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD.

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting

PubMed Central

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-01-01

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes. PMID:29453930

Ensemble survival tree models to reveal pairwise interactions of variables with time-to-events outcomes in low-dimensional setting.

PubMed

Dazard, Jean-Eudes; Ishwaran, Hemant; Mehlotra, Rajeev; Weinberg, Aaron; Zimmerman, Peter

2018-02-17

Unraveling interactions among variables such as genetic, clinical, demographic and environmental factors is essential to understand the development of common and complex diseases. To increase the power to detect such variables interactions associated with clinical time-to-events outcomes, we borrowed established concepts from random survival forest (RSF) models. We introduce a novel RSF-based pairwise interaction estimator and derive a randomization method with bootstrap confidence intervals for inferring interaction significance. Using various linear and nonlinear time-to-events survival models in simulation studies, we first show the efficiency of our approach: true pairwise interaction-effects between variables are uncovered, while they may not be accompanied with their corresponding main-effects, and may not be detected by standard semi-parametric regression modeling and test statistics used in survival analysis. Moreover, using a RSF-based cross-validation scheme for generating prediction estimators, we show that informative predictors may be inferred. We applied our approach to an HIV cohort study recording key host gene polymorphisms and their association with HIV change of tropism or AIDS progression. Altogether, this shows how linear or nonlinear pairwise statistical interactions of variables may be efficiently detected with a predictive value in observational studies with time-to-event outcomes.

Thrombectomy for ischemic stroke: meta-analyses of recurrent strokes, vasospasms, and subarachnoid hemorrhages.

PubMed

Emprechtinger, Robert; Piso, Brigitte; Ringleb, Peter A

2017-03-01

Mechanical thrombectomy with stent retrievers is an effective treatment for patients with ischemic stroke. Results of recent meta-analyses report that the treatment is safe. However, the endpoints recurrent stroke, vasospasms, and subarachnoid hemorrhage have not been evaluated sufficiently. Hence, we extracted data on these outcomes from the five recent thrombectomy trials (MR CLEAN, ESCAPE, REVASCAT, SWIFT PRIME, and EXTEND IA published in 2015). Subsequently, we conducted meta-analyses for each outcome. We report the results of the fixed, as well as the random effects model. Three studies reported data on recurrent strokes. While the results did not reach statistical significance in the random effects model (despite a three times elevated risk), the fixed effects model revealed a significantly higher rate of recurrent strokes after thrombectomy. Four studies reported data on subarachnoid hemorrhage. The higher pooled rates in the intervention groups were statistically significant in both, the fixed and the random effects model. One study reported on vasospasms. We recorded 14 events in the intervention group and none in the control group. The efficacy of mechanical thrombectomy is not questioned, yet our results indicate an increased risk for recurrent strokes, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and vasospasms post-treatment. Therefore, we strongly recommend a thoroughly surveillance, concerning these adverse events in future clinical trials and routine registries.

28 CFR 22.22 - Revelation of identifiable data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... STATISTICAL INFORMATION § 22.22 Revelation of identifiable data. (a) Except as noted in paragraph (b) of this section, research and statistical information relating to a private person may be revealed in identifiable... Act. (3) Persons or organizations for research or statistical purposes. Information may only be...

28 CFR 22.23 - Privacy certification.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... STATISTICAL INFORMATION § 22.23 Privacy certification. (a) Each applicant for BJA, OJJDP, BJS, NIJ, or OJP... approval of a grant application or contract proposal which has a research or statistical project component... revealed for research or statistical purposes and that compliance with requests for information is not...

An R2 statistic for fixed effects in the linear mixed model.

PubMed

Edwards, Lloyd J; Muller, Keith E; Wolfinger, Russell D; Qaqish, Bahjat F; Schabenberger, Oliver

2008-12-20

Statisticians most often use the linear mixed model to analyze Gaussian longitudinal data. The value and familiarity of the R(2) statistic in the linear univariate model naturally creates great interest in extending it to the linear mixed model. We define and describe how to compute a model R(2) statistic for the linear mixed model by using only a single model. The proposed R(2) statistic measures multivariate association between the repeated outcomes and the fixed effects in the linear mixed model. The R(2) statistic arises as a 1-1 function of an appropriate F statistic for testing all fixed effects (except typically the intercept) in a full model. The statistic compares the full model with a null model with all fixed effects deleted (except typically the intercept) while retaining exactly the same covariance structure. Furthermore, the R(2) statistic leads immediately to a natural definition of a partial R(2) statistic. A mixed model in which ethnicity gives a very small p-value as a longitudinal predictor of blood pressure (BP) compellingly illustrates the value of the statistic. In sharp contrast to the extreme p-value, a very small R(2) , a measure of statistical and scientific importance, indicates that ethnicity has an almost negligible association with the repeated BP outcomes for the study.

Physical and genetic-interaction density reveals functional organization and informs significance cutoffs in genome-wide screens

PubMed Central

Dittmar, John C.; Pierce, Steven; Rothstein, Rodney; Reid, Robert J. D.

2013-01-01

Genome-wide experiments often measure quantitative differences between treated and untreated cells to identify affected strains. For these studies, statistical models are typically used to determine significance cutoffs. We developed a method termed “CLIK” (Cutoff Linked to Interaction Knowledge) that overlays biological knowledge from the interactome on screen results to derive a cutoff. The method takes advantage of the fact that groups of functionally related interacting genes often respond similarly to experimental conditions and, thus, cluster in a ranked list of screen results. We applied CLIK analysis to five screens of the yeast gene disruption library and found that it defined a significance cutoff that differed from traditional statistics. Importantly, verification experiments revealed that the CLIK cutoff correlated with the position in the rank order where the rate of true positives drops off significantly. In addition, the gene sets defined by CLIK analysis often provide further biological perspectives. For example, applying CLIK analysis retrospectively to a screen for cisplatin sensitivity allowed us to identify the importance of the Hrq1 helicase in DNA crosslink repair. Furthermore, we demonstrate the utility of CLIK to determine optimal treatment conditions by analyzing genome-wide screens at multiple rapamycin concentrations. We show that CLIK is an extremely useful tool for evaluating screen quality, determining screen cutoffs, and comparing results between screens. Furthermore, because CLIK uses previously annotated interaction data to determine biologically informed cutoffs, it provides additional insights into screen results, which supplement traditional statistical approaches. PMID:23589890

The influence of depression and anxiety in the development of heart failure after coronary angioplasty.

PubMed

Gegenava, T; Gegenava, M; Kavtaradze, G

2009-03-01

The aim of our study was to investigate the association between history of depressive episode and anxiety and complications in patients after 6 months of coronary artery angioplasty. The research was conducted on 70 patients, the grade of coronary occlusion that would not respond to therapeutic treatment and need coronary angioplasty had been established. Complications were estimated in 60 patients after 6 months of coronary angioplasty. To evaluate depression we used Beck depression scale Anxiety was assessed by Spilberger State-trait anxiety scale. Statistic analysis of the data was made by means of the methods of variation statistics using Students' criterion and program of STATISTICA w 5.0. Complications were discovered in 36 (60%) patients; 24 (40%) patients had not complications. There was not revealed significant statistical differences in depression and anxiety degree in coronary angioplasty period and after 6 months of coronary angioplasty. There was not revealed significant statistical differences in depression and anxiety degree in coronary angioplasty period and after 6 months of coronary angioplasty. Our study demonstrated that complications were revealed in patients who had high degree of depression and anxiety.

Model selection in historical biogeography reveals that founder-event speciation is a crucial process in Island Clades.

PubMed

Matzke, Nicholas J

2014-11-01

Founder-event speciation, where a rare jump dispersal event founds a new genetically isolated lineage, has long been considered crucial by many historical biogeographers, but its importance is disputed within the vicariance school. Probabilistic modeling of geographic range evolution creates the potential to test different biogeographical models against data using standard statistical model choice procedures, as long as multiple models are available. I re-implement the Dispersal-Extinction-Cladogenesis (DEC) model of LAGRANGE in the R package BioGeoBEARS, and modify it to create a new model, DEC + J, which adds founder-event speciation, the importance of which is governed by a new free parameter, [Formula: see text]. The identifiability of DEC and DEC + J is tested on data sets simulated under a wide range of macroevolutionary models where geography evolves jointly with lineage birth/death events. The results confirm that DEC and DEC + J are identifiable even though these models ignore the fact that molecular phylogenies are missing many cladogenesis and extinction events. The simulations also indicate that DEC will have substantially increased errors in ancestral range estimation and parameter inference when the true model includes + J. DEC and DEC + J are compared on 13 empirical data sets drawn from studies of island clades. Likelihood-ratio tests indicate that all clades reject DEC, and AICc model weights show large to overwhelming support for DEC + J, for the first time verifying the importance of founder-event speciation in island clades via statistical model choice. Under DEC + J, ancestral nodes are usually estimated to have ranges occupying only one island, rather than the widespread ancestors often favored by DEC. These results indicate that the assumptions of historical biogeography models can have large impacts on inference and require testing and comparison with statistical methods. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Statistical parameters of random heterogeneity estimated by analysing coda waves based on finite difference method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emoto, K.; Saito, T.; Shiomi, K.

2017-12-01

Short-period (<1 s) seismograms are strongly affected by small-scale (<10 km) heterogeneities in the lithosphere. In general, short-period seismograms are analysed based on the statistical method by considering the interaction between seismic waves and randomly distributed small-scale heterogeneities. Statistical properties of the random heterogeneities have been estimated by analysing short-period seismograms. However, generally, the small-scale random heterogeneity is not taken into account for the modelling of long-period (>2 s) seismograms. We found that the energy of the coda of long-period seismograms shows a spatially flat distribution. This phenomenon is well known in short-period seismograms and results from the scattering by small-scale heterogeneities. We estimate the statistical parameters that characterize the small-scale random heterogeneity by modelling the spatiotemporal energy distribution of long-period seismograms. We analyse three moderate-size earthquakes that occurred in southwest Japan. We calculate the spatial distribution of the energy density recorded by a dense seismograph network in Japan at the period bands of 8-16 s, 4-8 s and 2-4 s and model them by using 3-D finite difference (FD) simulations. Compared to conventional methods based on statistical theories, we can calculate more realistic synthetics by using the FD simulation. It is not necessary to assume a uniform background velocity, body or surface waves and scattering properties considered in general scattering theories. By taking the ratio of the energy of the coda area to that of the entire area, we can separately estimate the scattering and the intrinsic absorption effects. Our result reveals the spectrum of the random inhomogeneity in a wide wavenumber range including the intensity around the corner wavenumber as P(m) = 8πε2a3/(1 + a2m2)2, where ε = 0.05 and a = 3.1 km, even though past studies analysing higher-frequency records could not detect the corner. Finally, we estimate the intrinsic attenuation by modelling the decay rate of the energy. The method proposed in this study is suitable for quantifying the statistical properties of long-wavelength subsurface random inhomogeneity, which leads the way to characterizing a wider wavenumber range of spectra, including the corner wavenumber.

Closing in on the large-scale CMB power asymmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Contreras, D.; Hutchinson, J.; Moss, A.; Scott, D.; Zibin, J. P.

2018-03-01

Measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies have revealed a dipolar asymmetry in power at the largest scales, in apparent contradiction with the statistical isotropy of standard cosmological models. The significance of the effect is not very high, and is dependent on a posteriori choices. Nevertheless, a number of models have been proposed that produce a scale-dependent asymmetry. We confront several such models for a physical, position-space modulation with CMB temperature observations. We find that, while some models that maintain the standard isotropic power spectrum are allowed, others, such as those with modulated tensor or uncorrelated isocurvature modes, can be ruled out on the basis of the overproduction of isotropic power. This remains the case even when an extra isocurvature mode fully anticorrelated with the adiabatic perturbations is added to suppress power on large scales.

Thermal conductivity model for nanofiber networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xinpeng; Huang, Congliang; Liu, Qingkun; Smalyukh, Ivan I.; Yang, Ronggui

2018-02-01

Understanding thermal transport in nanofiber networks is essential for their applications in thermal management, which are used extensively as mechanically sturdy thermal insulation or high thermal conductivity materials. In this study, using the statistical theory and Fourier's law of heat conduction while accounting for both the inter-fiber contact thermal resistance and the intrinsic thermal resistance of nanofibers, an analytical model is developed to predict the thermal conductivity of nanofiber networks as a function of their geometric and thermal properties. A scaling relation between the thermal conductivity and the geometric properties including volume fraction and nanofiber length of the network is revealed. This model agrees well with both numerical simulations and experimental measurements found in the literature. This model may prove useful in analyzing the experimental results and designing nanofiber networks for both high and low thermal conductivity applications.

Thermal conductivity model for nanofiber networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Xinpeng; Huang, Congliang; Liu, Qingkun

Understanding thermal transport in nanofiber networks is essential for their applications in thermal management, which are used extensively as mechanically sturdy thermal insulation or high thermal conductivity materials. In this study, using the statistical theory and Fourier's law of heat conduction while accounting for both the inter-fiber contact thermal resistance and the intrinsic thermal resistance of nanofibers, an analytical model is developed to predict the thermal conductivity of nanofiber networks as a function of their geometric and thermal properties. A scaling relation between the thermal conductivity and the geometric properties including volume fraction and nanofiber length of the network ismore » revealed. This model agrees well with both numerical simulations and experimental measurements found in the literature. This model may prove useful in analyzing the experimental results and designing nanofiber networks for both high and low thermal conductivity applications.« less

Opacity and transport measurements reveal that dilute plasma models of sonoluminescence are not valid.

PubMed

Khalid, Shahzad; Kappus, Brian; Weninger, Keith; Putterman, Seth

2012-03-09

A strong interaction between a nanosecond laser and a 70 μm radius sonoluminescing plasma is achieved. The overall response of the system results in a factor of 2 increase in temperature as determined by its spectrum. Images of the interaction reveal that light energy is absorbed and trapped in a region smaller than the sonoluminescence emitting region of the bubble for over 100 ns. We interpret this opacity and transport measurement as demonstrating that sonoluminescencing bubbles can be 1000 times more opaque than what follows from the Saha equation of statistical mechanics in the ideal plasma limit. To address this discrepancy, we suggest that the effects of strong Coulomb interactions are an essential component of a first principles theory of sonoluminescence.

Opacity and Transport Measurements Reveal That Dilute Plasma Models of Sonoluminescence Are Not Valid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, Shahzad; Kappus, Brian; Weninger, Keith; Putterman, Seth

2012-03-01

A strong interaction between a nanosecond laser and a 70 μm radius sonoluminescing plasma is achieved. The overall response of the system results in a factor of 2 increase in temperature as determined by its spectrum. Images of the interaction reveal that light energy is absorbed and trapped in a region smaller than the sonoluminescence emitting region of the bubble for over 100 ns. We interpret this opacity and transport measurement as demonstrating that sonoluminescencing bubbles can be 1000 times more opaque than what follows from the Saha equation of statistical mechanics in the ideal plasma limit. To address this discrepancy, we suggest that the effects of strong Coulomb interactions are an essential component of a first principles theory of sonoluminescence.

Comparative Gender Performance in Business Statistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mogull, Robert G.

1989-01-01

Comparative performance of male and female students in introductory and intermediate statistics classes was examined for over 16 years at a state university. Gender means from 97 classes and 1,609 males and 1,085 females revealed a probabilistic--although statistically insignificant--superior performance by female students that appeared to…

Understanding amyloid aggregation by statistical analysis of atomic force microscopy images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamcik, Jozef; Jung, Jin-Mi; Flakowski, Jérôme; de Los Rios, Paolo; Dietler, Giovanni; Mezzenga, Raffaele

2010-06-01

The aggregation of proteins is central to many aspects of daily life, including food processing, blood coagulation, eye cataract formation disease and prion-related neurodegenerative infections. However, the physical mechanisms responsible for amyloidosis-the irreversible fibril formation of various proteins that is linked to disorders such as Alzheimer's, Creutzfeldt-Jakob and Huntington's diseases-have not yet been fully elucidated. Here, we show that different stages of amyloid aggregation can be examined by performing a statistical polymer physics analysis of single-molecule atomic force microscopy images of heat-denatured β-lactoglobulin fibrils. The atomic force microscopy analysis, supported by theoretical arguments, reveals that the fibrils have a multistranded helical shape with twisted ribbon-like structures. Our results also indicate a possible general model for amyloid fibril assembly and illustrate the potential of this approach for investigating fibrillar systems.

Diurnal and Seasonal Statistical Characteristics of Well-formed Plasma Depletion and Enhancement Plumes under Quiet Solar Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haaser, R. A.

2011-12-01

The Ion Velocity Meter (IVM), a part of the Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) aboard the Communication/ Navigation Outage Forecasting System (C/NOFS) satellite, is used to measure in situ ion densities and drifts at altitudes between 400 and 550 km during the nighttime hours from 2100 to 300 local time. A new approach to detecting and classifying well-formed ionospheric plasma depletion and enhancement plumes (bubbles and blobs) of scale sizes between 50 and 500 km is used to develop geophysical statistics for the summer, winter and equinox seasons of the quiet solar conditions during 2009 and 2010. Some diurnal and seasonal geomagnetic distribution characteristics confirm previous work on irregularities and scintillations, while others reveal new behaviors that require additional observations and modeling to promote full understanding.

Lacosamide derivatives with anticonvulsant activity as carbonic anhydrase inhibitors. Molecular modeling, docking and QSAR analysis.

PubMed

Garro Martinez, Juan C; Vega-Hissi, Esteban G; Andrada, Matías F; Duchowicz, Pablo R; Torrens, Francisco; Estrada, Mario R

2014-01-01

Lacosamide is an anticonvulsant drug which presents carbonic anhydrase inhibition. In this paper, we analyzed the apparent relationship between both activities performing a molecular modeling, docking and QSAR studies on 18 lacosamide derivatives with known anticonvulsant activity. Docking results suggested the zinc-binding site of carbonic anhydrase is a possible target of lacosamide and lacosamide derivatives making favorable Van der Waals interactions with Asn67, Gln92, Phe131 and Thr200. The mathematical models revealed a poor relationship between the anticonvulsant activity and molecular descriptors obtained from DFT and docking calculations. However, a QSAR model was developed using Dragon software descriptors. The statistic parameters of the model are: correlation coefficient, R=0.957 and standard deviation, S=0.162. Our results provide new valuable information regarding the relationship between both activities and contribute important insights into the essential molecular requirements for the anticonvulsant activity.

Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using a latent space model for bipartite networks

PubMed Central

Friel, Nial; Rastelli, Riccardo; Wyse, Jason; Raftery, Adrian E.

2016-01-01

We analyze the temporal bipartite network of the leading Irish companies and their directors from 2003 to 2013, encompassing the end of the Celtic Tiger boom and the ensuing financial crisis in 2008. We focus on the evolution of company interlocks, whereby a company director simultaneously sits on two or more boards. We develop a statistical model for this dataset by embedding the positions of companies and directors in a latent space. The temporal evolution of the network is modeled through three levels of Markovian dependence: one on the model parameters, one on the companies’ latent positions, and one on the edges themselves. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference. Our analysis reveals that the level of interlocking, as measured by a contraction of the latent space, increased before and during the crisis, reaching a peak in 2009, and has generally stabilized since then. PMID:27247395

Entropy in universes evolving from initial to final de Sitter eras

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mimoso, José P.; Pavón, Diego

2014-05-01

This work studies the behavior of entropy in recent cosmological models that start with an initial de Sitter expansion phase, go through the conventional radiation and matter dominated eras to be followed by a final de Sitter epoch. In spite of their seemingly similarities (observationally they are close to the Λ-CDM model), different models deeply differ in their physics. The second law of thermodynamics encapsulates the underlying microscopic, statistical description, and hence we investigate it in the present work. Our study reveals that the entropy of the apparent horizon plus that of matter and radiation inside it, increases and is a concave function of the scale factor. Thus thermodynamic equilibrium is approached in the last de Sitter era, and this class of models is thermodynamically correct. Cosmological models that do not approach equilibrium appear in conflict with the second law of thermodynamics. (Based on Mimoso & Pavon 2013)

Toda hierarchies and their applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takasaki, Kanehisa

2018-05-01

The 2D Toda hierarchy occupies a central position in the family of integrable hierarchies of the Toda type. The 1D Toda hierarchy and the Ablowitz–Ladik (aka relativistic Toda) hierarchy can be derived from the 2D Toda hierarchy as reductions. These integrable hierarchies have been applied to various problems of mathematics and mathematical physics since 1990s. A recent example is a series of studies on models of statistical mechanics called the melting crystal model. This research has revealed that the aforementioned two reductions of the 2D Toda hierarchy underlie two different melting crystal models. Technical clues are a fermionic realization of the quantum torus algebra, special algebraic relations therein called shift symmetries, and a matrix factorization problem. The two melting crystal models thus exhibit remarkable similarity with the Hermitian and unitary matrix models for which the two reductions of the 2D Toda hierarchy play the role of fundamental integrable structures.

Interlocking directorates in Irish companies using a latent space model for bipartite networks.

PubMed

Friel, Nial; Rastelli, Riccardo; Wyse, Jason; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-06-14

We analyze the temporal bipartite network of the leading Irish companies and their directors from 2003 to 2013, encompassing the end of the Celtic Tiger boom and the ensuing financial crisis in 2008. We focus on the evolution of company interlocks, whereby a company director simultaneously sits on two or more boards. We develop a statistical model for this dataset by embedding the positions of companies and directors in a latent space. The temporal evolution of the network is modeled through three levels of Markovian dependence: one on the model parameters, one on the companies' latent positions, and one on the edges themselves. The model is estimated using Bayesian inference. Our analysis reveals that the level of interlocking, as measured by a contraction of the latent space, increased before and during the crisis, reaching a peak in 2009, and has generally stabilized since then.

A Critical Review for Developing Accurate and Dynamic Predictive Models Using Machine Learning Methods in Medicine and Health Care.

PubMed

Alanazi, Hamdan O; Abdullah, Abdul Hanan; Qureshi, Kashif Naseer

2017-04-01

Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been used widely in medicine and health care sector. In machine learning, the classification or prediction is a major field of AI. Today, the study of existing predictive models based on machine learning methods is extremely active. Doctors need accurate predictions for the outcomes of their patients' diseases. In addition, for accurate predictions, timing is another significant factor that influences treatment decisions. In this paper, existing predictive models in medicine and health care have critically reviewed. Furthermore, the most famous machine learning methods have explained, and the confusion between a statistical approach and machine learning has clarified. A review of related literature reveals that the predictions of existing predictive models differ even when the same dataset is used. Therefore, existing predictive models are essential, and current methods must be improved.

Nano-swimmers in biological membranes and propulsion hydrodynamics in two dimensions.

PubMed

Huang, Mu-Jie; Chen, Hsuan-Yi; Mikhailov, Alexander S

2012-11-01

Active protein inclusions in biological membranes can represent nano-swimmers and propel themselves in lipid bilayers. A simple model of an active inclusion with three particles (domains) connected by variable elastic links is considered. First, the membrane is modeled as a two-dimensional viscous fluid and propulsion behavior in two dimensions is examined. After that, an example of a microscopic dynamical simulation is presented, where the lipid bilayer structure of the membrane is resolved and the solvent effects are included by multiparticle collision dynamics. Statistical analysis of data reveals ballistic motion of the swimmer, in contrast to the classical diffusion behavior found in the absence of active transitions between the states.

Structure of turbulent non-premixed flames modeled with two-step chemistry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, J. H.; Mahalingam, S.; Puri, I. K.; Vervisch, L.

1992-01-01

Direct numerical simulations of turbulent diffusion flames modeled with finite-rate, two-step chemistry, A + B yields I, A + I yields P, were carried out. A detailed analysis of the turbulent flame structure reveals the complex nature of the penetration of various reactive species across two reaction zones in mixture fraction space. Due to this two zone structure, these flames were found to be robust, resisting extinction over the parameter ranges investigated. As in single-step computations, mixture fraction dissipation rate and the mixture fraction were found to be statistically correlated. Simulations involving unequal molecular diffusivities suggest that the small scale mixing process and, hence, the turbulent flame structure is sensitive to the Schmidt number.

Multi-scale Characterization and Modeling of Surface Slope Probability Distribution for ~20-km Diameter Lunar Craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahanti, P.; Robinson, M. S.; Boyd, A. K.

2013-12-01

Craters ~20-km diameter and above significantly shaped the lunar landscape. The statistical nature of the slope distribution on their walls and floors dominate the overall slope distribution statistics for the lunar surface. Slope statistics are inherently useful for characterizing the current topography of the surface, determining accurate photometric and surface scattering properties, and in defining lunar surface trafficability [1-4]. Earlier experimental studies on the statistical nature of lunar surface slopes were restricted either by resolution limits (Apollo era photogrammetric studies) or by model error considerations (photoclinometric and radar scattering studies) where the true nature of slope probability distribution was not discernible at baselines smaller than a kilometer[2,3,5]. Accordingly, historical modeling of lunar surface slopes probability distributions for applications such as in scattering theory development or rover traversability assessment is more general in nature (use of simple statistical models such as the Gaussian distribution[1,2,5,6]). With the advent of high resolution, high precision topographic models of the Moon[7,8], slopes in lunar craters can now be obtained at baselines as low as 6-meters allowing unprecedented multi-scale (multiple baselines) modeling possibilities for slope probability distributions. Topographic analysis (Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) 2-m digital elevation models (DEM)) of ~20-km diameter Copernican lunar craters revealed generally steep slopes on interior walls (30° to 36°, locally exceeding 40°) over 15-meter baselines[9]. In this work, we extend the analysis from a probability distribution modeling point-of-view with NAC DEMs to characterize the slope statistics for the floors and walls for the same ~20-km Copernican lunar craters. The difference in slope standard deviations between the Gaussian approximation and the actual distribution (2-meter sampling) was computed over multiple scales. This slope analysis showed that local slope distributions are non-Gaussian for both crater walls and floors. Over larger baselines (~100 meters), crater wall slope probability distributions do approximate Gaussian distributions better, but have long distribution tails. Crater floor probability distributions however, were always asymmetric (for the baseline scales analyzed) and less affected by baseline scale variations. Accordingly, our results suggest that use of long tailed probability distributions (like Cauchy) and a baseline-dependant multi-scale model can be more effective in describing the slope statistics for lunar topography. Refrences: [1]Moore, H.(1971), JGR,75(11) [2]Marcus, A. H.(1969),JGR,74 (22).[3]R.J. Pike (1970),U.S. Geological Survey Working Paper [4]N. C. Costes, J. E. Farmer and E. B. George (1972),NASA Technical Report TR R-401 [5]M. N. Parker and G. L. Tyler(1973), Radio Science, 8(3),177-184 [6]Alekseev, V. A.et al (1968), Soviet Astronomy, Vol. 11, p.860 [7]Burns et al. (2012) Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XXXIX-B4, 483-488.[8]Smith et al. (2010) GRL 37, L18204, DOI: 10.1029/2010GL043751. [9]Wagner R., Robinson, M., Speyerer E., Mahanti, P., LPSC 2013, #2924.

An adaptive two-stage analog/regression model for probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation in France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chardon, Jérémy; Hingray, Benoit; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2018-01-01

Statistical downscaling models (SDMs) are often used to produce local weather scenarios from large-scale atmospheric information. SDMs include transfer functions which are based on a statistical link identified from observations between local weather and a set of large-scale predictors. As physical processes driving surface weather vary in time, the most relevant predictors and the regression link are likely to vary in time too. This is well known for precipitation for instance and the link is thus often estimated after some seasonal stratification of the data. In this study, we present a two-stage analog/regression model where the regression link is estimated from atmospheric analogs of the current prediction day. Atmospheric analogs are identified from fields of geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa. For the regression stage, two generalized linear models are further used to model the probability of precipitation occurrence and the distribution of non-zero precipitation amounts, respectively. The two-stage model is evaluated for the probabilistic prediction of small-scale precipitation over France. It noticeably improves the skill of the prediction for both precipitation occurrence and amount. As the analog days vary from one prediction day to another, the atmospheric predictors selected in the regression stage and the value of the corresponding regression coefficients can vary from one prediction day to another. The model allows thus for a day-to-day adaptive and tailored downscaling. It can also reveal specific predictors for peculiar and non-frequent weather configurations.

Comparing and combining process-based crop models and statistical models with some implications for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, Michael J.; Braun, Noah O.; Sinclair, Thomas R.; Lobell, David B.; Schlenker, Wolfram

2017-09-01

We compare predictions of a simple process-based crop model (Soltani and Sinclair 2012), a simple statistical model (Schlenker and Roberts 2009), and a combination of both models to actual maize yields on a large, representative sample of farmer-managed fields in the Corn Belt region of the United States. After statistical post-model calibration, the process model (Simple Simulation Model, or SSM) predicts actual outcomes slightly better than the statistical model, but the combined model performs significantly better than either model. The SSM, statistical model and combined model all show similar relationships with precipitation, while the SSM better accounts for temporal patterns of precipitation, vapor pressure deficit and solar radiation. The statistical and combined models show a more negative impact associated with extreme heat for which the process model does not account. Due to the extreme heat effect, predicted impacts under uniform climate change scenarios are considerably more severe for the statistical and combined models than for the process-based model.

Geoscience in the Big Data Era: Are models obsolete?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuen, D. A.; Zheng, L.; Stark, P. B.; Morra, G.; Knepley, M.; Wang, X.

2016-12-01

In last few decades, the velocity, volume, and variety of geophysical data have increased, while the development of the Internet and distributed computing has led to the emergence of "data science." Fitting and running numerical models, especially based on PDEs, is the main consumer of flops in geoscience. Can large amounts of diverse data supplant modeling? Without the ability to conduct randomized, controlled experiments, causal inference requires understanding the physics. It is sometimes possible to predict well without understanding the system—if (1) the system is predictable, (2) data on "important" variables are available, and (3) the system changes slowly enough. And sometimes even a crude model can help the data "speak for themselves" much more clearly. For example, Shearer (1991) used a 1-dimensional velocity model to stack long-period seismograms, revealing upper mantle discontinuities. This was a "big data" approach: the main use of computing was in the data processing, rather than in modeling, yet the "signal" became clear. In contrast, modelers tend to use all available computing power to fit even more complex models, resulting in a cycle where uncertainty quantification (UQ) is never possible: even if realistic UQ required only 1,000 model evaluations, it is never in reach. To make more reliable inferences requires better data analysis and statistics, not more complex models. Geoscientists need to learn new skills and tools: sound software engineering practices; open programming languages suitable for big data; parallel and distributed computing; data visualization; and basic nonparametric, computationally based statistical inference, such as permutation tests. They should work reproducibly, scripting all analyses and avoiding point-and-click tools.

The predictive power of zero intelligence in financial markets

PubMed Central

Farmer, J. Doyne; Patelli, Paolo; Zovko, Ilija I.

2005-01-01

Standard models in economics stress the role of intelligent agents who maximize utility. However, there may be situations where constraints imposed by market institutions dominate strategic agent behavior. We use data from the London Stock Exchange to test a simple model in which minimally intelligent agents place orders to trade at random. The model treats the statistical mechanics of order placement, price formation, and the accumulation of revealed supply and demand within the context of the continuous double auction and yields simple laws relating order-arrival rates to statistical properties of the market. We test the validity of these laws in explaining cross-sectional variation for 11 stocks. The model explains 96% of the variance of the gap between the best buying and selling prices (the spread) and 76% of the variance of the price diffusion rate, with only one free parameter. We also study the market impact function, describing the response of quoted prices to the arrival of new orders. The nondimensional coordinates dictated by the model approximately collapse data from different stocks onto a single curve. This work is important from a practical point of view, because it demonstrates the existence of simple laws relating prices to order flows and, in a broader context, suggests there are circumstances where the strategic behavior of agents may be dominated by other considerations. PMID:15687505

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission—With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak

PubMed Central

McClelland, Amanda; Zelner, Jon; Streftaris, George; Funk, Sebastian; Metcalf, Jessica; Dalziel, Benjamin D.; Grenfell, Bryan T.

2017-01-01

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging. PMID:29084216

A mechanistic spatio-temporal framework for modelling individual-to-individual transmission-With an application to the 2014-2015 West Africa Ebola outbreak.

PubMed

Lau, Max S Y; Gibson, Gavin J; Adrakey, Hola; McClelland, Amanda; Riley, Steven; Zelner, Jon; Streftaris, George; Funk, Sebastian; Metcalf, Jessica; Dalziel, Benjamin D; Grenfell, Bryan T

2017-10-01

In recent years there has been growing availability of individual-level spatio-temporal disease data, particularly due to the use of modern communicating devices with GPS tracking functionality. These detailed data have been proven useful for inferring disease transmission to a more refined level than previously. However, there remains a lack of statistically sound frameworks to model the underlying transmission dynamic in a mechanistic manner. Such a development is particularly crucial for enabling a general epidemic predictive framework at the individual level. In this paper we propose a new statistical framework for mechanistically modelling individual-to-individual disease transmission in a landscape with heterogeneous population density. Our methodology is first tested using simulated datasets, validating our inferential machinery. The methodology is subsequently applied to data that describes a regional Ebola outbreak in Western Africa (2014-2015). Our results show that the methods are able to obtain estimates of key epidemiological parameters that are broadly consistent with the literature, while revealing a significantly shorter distance of transmission. More importantly, in contrast to existing approaches, we are able to perform a more general model prediction that takes into account the susceptible population. Finally, our results show that, given reasonable scenarios, the framework can be an effective surrogate for susceptible-explicit individual models which are often computationally challenging.

Ocean Surface Carbon Dioxide Fugacity Observed from Space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, W. Timothy; Xie, Xiaosu

2014-01-01

We have developed and validated a statistical model to estimate the fugacity (or partial pressure) of carbon dioxide (CO2) at sea surface (pCO2sea) from space-based observations of sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, and salinity. More than a quarter million in situ measurements coincident with satellite data were compiled to train and validate the model. We have produced and made accessible 9 years (2002-2010) of the pCO2sea at 0.5 degree resolutions daily over the global ocean. The results help to identify uncertainties in current JPL Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) model-based and bottom-up estimates over the ocean. The utility of the data to reveal multi-year and regional variability of the fugacity in relation to prevalent oceanic parameters is demonstrated.

Voids and constraints on nonlinear clustering of galaxies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vogeley, Michael S.; Geller, Margaret J.; Park, Changbom; Huchra, John P.

1994-01-01

Void statistics of the galaxy distribution in the Center for Astrophysics Redshift Survey provide strong constraints on galaxy clustering in the nonlinear regime, i.e., on scales R equal to or less than 10/h Mpc. Computation of high-order moments of the galaxy distribution requires a sample that (1) densely traces the large-scale structure and (2) covers sufficient volume to obtain good statistics. The CfA redshift survey densely samples structure on scales equal to or less than 10/h Mpc and has sufficient depth and angular coverage to approach a fair sample on these scales. In the nonlinear regime, the void probability function (VPF) for CfA samples exhibits apparent agreement with hierarchical scaling (such scaling implies that the N-point correlation functions for N greater than 2 depend only on pairwise products of the two-point function xi(r)) However, simulations of cosmological models show that this scaling in redshift space does not necessarily imply such scaling in real space, even in the nonlinear regime; peculiar velocities cause distortions which can yield erroneous agreement with hierarchical scaling. The underdensity probability measures the frequency of 'voids' with density rho less than 0.2 -/rho. This statistic reveals a paucity of very bright galaxies (L greater than L asterisk) in the 'voids.' Underdensities are equal to or greater than 2 sigma more frequent in bright galaxy samples than in samples that include fainter galaxies. Comparison of void statistics of CfA samples with simulations of a range of cosmological models favors models with Gaussian primordial fluctuations and Cold Dark Matter (CDM)-like initial power spectra. Biased models tend to produce voids that are too empty. We also compare these data with three specific models of the Cold Dark Matter cosmogony: an unbiased, open universe CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.5) provides a good match to the VPF of the CfA samples. Biasing of the galaxy distribution in the 'standard' CDM model (omega = 1, b = 1.5; see below for definitions) and nonzero cosmological constant CDM model (omega = 0.4, h = 0.6 lambda(sub 0) = 0.6, b = 1.3) produce voids that are too empty. All three simulations match the observed VPF and underdensity probability for samples of very bright (M less than M asterisk = -19.2) galaxies, but produce voids that are too empty when compared with samples that include fainter galaxies.

Modeling the pharmacokinetics of extended release pharmaceutical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

di Muria, Michela; Lamberti, Gaetano; Titomanlio, Giuseppe

2009-03-01

The pharmacokinetic (PK) models predict the hematic concentration of drugs after the administration. In compartment modeling, the body is described by a set of interconnected “vessels” or “compartments”; the modeling consisting of transient mass balances. Usually the orally administered drugs were considered as immediately available: this cannot describe the administration of extended-release systems. In this work we added to the traditional compartment models the ability to account for a delay in administration, relating this delay to in vitro data. Firstly, the method was validated, applying the model to the dosage of nicotine by chewing-gum; the model was tuned by in vitro/in vivo data of drugs (divalproex-sodium and diltiazem) with medium-rate release kinetics, then it was applied in describing in vivo evolutions due to the assumption of fast- and slow-release systems. The model reveals itself predictive, the same of a Level A in vitro/in vivo correlation, but being physically based, it is preferable to a purely statistical method.

Lagrange thermodynamic potential and intrinsic variables for He-3 He-4 dilute solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackson, H. W.

1983-01-01

For a two-fluid model of dilute solutions of He-3 in liquid He-4, a thermodynamic potential is constructed that provides a Lagrangian for deriving equations of motion by a variational procedure. This Lagrangian is defined for uniform velocity fields as a (negative) Legendre transform of total internal energy, and its primary independent variables, together with their thermodynamic conjugates, are identified. Here, similarities between relations in classical physics and quantum statistical mechanics serve as a guide for developing an alternate expression for this function that reveals its character as the difference between apparent kinetic energy and intrinsic internal energy. When the He-3 concentration in the mixtures tends to zero, this expression reduces to Zilsel's formula for the Lagrangian for pure liquid He-4. An investigation of properties of the intrinsic internal energy leads to the introduction of intrinsic chemical potentials along with other intrinsic variables for the mixtures. Explicit formulas for these variables are derived for a noninteracting elementary excitation model of the fluid. Using these formulas and others also derived from quantum statistical mechanics, another equivalent expression for the Lagrangian is generated.

Increased Risk of the APOB rs11279109 Polymorphism for CHD among the Kuwaiti Population

PubMed Central

Ismael, Fatma G.; Al-Serri, Ahmad; Al-Rashdan, Ibrahim

2017-01-01

Background Coronary heart disease (CHD) is among the leading causes of death in Kuwait. This case-control study investigated the genetic association of APOB rs11279109 with CHD in Kuwaitis. Methods The polymorphism was genotyped in 734 Kuwaiti samples by direct amplification. Statistical analysis with genetic modeling was used to assess its association with CHD. Results A statistically significant association (P < 0.001) between the rs11279109 DD genotype (OR: 2.43, CI: 1.34–4.41) with CHD was observed. A codominant genetic model revealed a 2.69 risk increase (CI: 1.57–4.61) for the DD genotype (P = 0.009) independent of age, sex, BMI, smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and ethnicity suggesting APOB rs11279109 as an indicator for the increased risk of CHD. Conclusion The DD genotype may explain molecular mechanisms that underline increased LDL oxidation leading to arthrosclerosis. The findings emphasize the need to identify genetic markers specific to the CHD patient ethnic group in order to improve prognosis and help in early diagnosis and prevention. PMID:29362515

Statistical Physics of Population Genetics in the Low Population Size Limit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atwal, Gurinder

The understanding of evolutionary processes lends itself naturally to theory and computation, and the entire field of population genetics has benefited greatly from the influx of methods from applied mathematics for decades. However, in spite of all this effort, there are a number of key dynamical models of evolution that have resisted analytical treatment. In addition, modern DNA sequencing technologies have magnified the amount of genetic data available, revealing an excess of rare genetic variants in human genomes, challenging the predictions of conventional theory. Here I will show that methods from statistical physics can be used to model the distribution of genetic variants, incorporating selection and spatial degrees of freedom. In particular, a functional path-integral formulation of the Wright-Fisher process maps exactly to the dynamics of a particle in an effective potential, beyond the mean field approximation. In the small population size limit, the dynamics are dominated by instanton-like solutions which determine the probability of fixation in short timescales. These results are directly relevant for understanding the unusual genetic variant distribution at moving frontiers of populations.

Scale-invariant structure of energy fluctuations in real earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ping; Chang, Zhe; Wang, Huanyu; Lu, Hong

2017-11-01

Earthquakes are obviously complex phenomena associated with complicated spatiotemporal correlations, and they are generally characterized by two power laws: the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) and the Omori-Utsu laws. However, an important challenge has been to explain two apparently contrasting features: the GR and Omori-Utsu laws are scale-invariant and unaffected by energy or time scales, whereas earthquakes occasionally exhibit a characteristic energy or time scale, such as with asperity events. In this paper, three high-quality datasets on earthquakes were used to calculate the earthquake energy fluctuations at various spatiotemporal scales, and the results reveal the correlations between seismic events regardless of their critical or characteristic features. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the fluctuations exhibit evidence of another scaling that behaves as a q-Gaussian rather than random process. The scaling behaviors are observed for scales spanning three orders of magnitude. Considering the spatial heterogeneities in a real earthquake fault, we propose an inhomogeneous Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model to describe the statistical properties of real earthquakes. The numerical simulations show that the inhomogeneous OFC model shares the same statistical properties with real earthquakes.

Workforce diversity among public healthcare workers in Nigeria: Implications on job satisfaction and organisational commitment.

PubMed

Ibidunni, Ayodotun Stephen; Falola, Hezekiah Olubusayo; Ibidunni, Oyebisi Mary; Salau, Odunayo Paul; Olokundun, Maxwell Ayodele; Borishade, Taiye Tairat; Amaihian, Augusta Bosede; Peter, Fred

2018-06-01

The aim of this research was to present a data article that identify the relationship between workforce diversity, job satisfaction and employee commitment among public healthcare workers in Nigeria. Copies of structured questionnaire were administered to 133 public healthcare workers from the Lagos state ministry of health in Nigeria. Using descriptive and structural equation modelling statistical analysis, the data revealed the relationship between workforce diversity and job satisfaction, workforce diversity and organisational commitment, and the role of job satisfaction on organisational commitment was also established.

Power generation in random diode arrays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shvydka, Diana; Karpov, V. G.

2005-03-01

We discuss nonlinear disordered systems, random diode arrays (RDAs), which can represent such objects as large-area photovoltaics and ion channels of biological membranes. Our numerical modeling has revealed several interesting properties of RDAs. In particular, the geometrical distribution of nonuniformities across a RDA has only a minor effect on its integral characteristics determined by RDA parameter statistics. In the meantime, the dispersion of integral characteristics vs system size exhibits a nontrivial scaling dependence. Our theoretical interpretation here remains limited and is based on the picture of eddy currents flowing through weak diodes in the RDA.

Product placement of computer games in cyberspace.

PubMed

Yang, Heng-Li; Wang, Cheng-Shu

2008-08-01

Computer games are considered an emerging media and are even regarded as an advertising channel. By a three-phase experiment, this study investigated the advertising effectiveness of computer games for different product placement forms, product types, and their combinations. As the statistical results revealed, computer games are appropriate for placement advertising. Additionally, different product types and placement forms produced different advertising effectiveness. Optimum combinations of product types and placement forms existed. An advertisement design model is proposed for use in game design environments. Some suggestions are given for advertisers and game companies respectively.

Wavefront Intensity Statistics for 284-Hz Broadband Transmissions to 107-km Range in the Philippine Sea: Observations and Modeling

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-10-01

structure reveals four distinct purely refracted acoustic paths: One with a single upper turning point near 80 m depth, two with a pair of upper turning... points at a depth of roughly 300 m, and one with three upper turning points at 420 m. Individual path intensity, defined as the absolute square of...contribu- tion to acoustic scattering is thought to occur at upper turning points (UTP) (Flatte et al., 1979). Here, the acoustic path is horizontal

Assessing Coupled Social Ecological Flood Vulnerability from Uttarakhand, India, to the State of New York with Google Earth Engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellman, B.; Schwarz, B.

2014-12-01

This talk describes the development of a web application to predict and communicate vulnerability to floods given publicly available data, disaster science, and geotech cloud capabilities. The proof of concept in Google Earth Engine API with initial testing on case studies in New York and Utterakhand India demonstrates the potential of highly parallelized cloud computing to model socio-ecological disaster vulnerability at high spatial and temporal resolution and in near real time. Cloud computing facilitates statistical modeling with variables derived from large public social and ecological data sets, including census data, nighttime lights (NTL), and World Pop to derive social parameters together with elevation, satellite imagery, rainfall, and observed flood data from Dartmouth Flood Observatory to derive biophysical parameters. While more traditional, physically based hydrological models that rely on flow algorithms and numerical methods are currently unavailable in parallelized computing platforms like Google Earth Engine, there is high potential to explore "data driven" modeling that trades physics for statistics in a parallelized environment. A data driven approach to flood modeling with geographically weighted logistic regression has been initially tested on Hurricane Irene in southeastern New York. Comparison of model results with observed flood data reveals a 97% accuracy of the model to predict flooded pixels. Testing on multiple storms is required to further validate this initial promising approach. A statistical social-ecological flood model that could produce rapid vulnerability assessments to predict who might require immediate evacuation and where could serve as an early warning. This type of early warning system would be especially relevant in data poor places lacking the computing power, high resolution data such as LiDar and stream gauges, or hydrologic expertise to run physically based models in real time. As the data-driven model presented relies on globally available data, the only real time data input required would be typical data from a weather service, e.g. precipitation or coarse resolution flood prediction. However, model uncertainty will vary locally depending upon the resolution and frequency of observed flood and socio-economic damage impact data.

Sex-specific developmental models for Creophilus maxillosus (L.) (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae): searching for larger accuracy of insect age estimates.

PubMed

Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna; Matuszewski, Szymon

2018-05-01

Differences in size between males and females, called the sexual size dimorphism, are common in insects. These differences may be followed by differences in the duration of development. Accordingly, it is believed that insect sex may be used to increase the accuracy of insect age estimates in forensic entomology. Here, the sex-specific differences in the development of Creophilus maxillosus were studied at seven constant temperatures. We have also created separate developmental models for males and females of C. maxillosus and tested them in a validation study to answer a question whether sex-specific developmental models improve the accuracy of insect age estimates. Results demonstrate that males of C. maxillosus developed significantly longer than females. The sex-specific and general models for the total immature development had the same optimal temperature range and similar developmental threshold but different thermal constant K, which was the largest in the case of the male-specific model and the smallest in the case of the female-specific model. Despite these differences, validation study revealed just minimal and statistically insignificant differences in the accuracy of age estimates using sex-specific and general thermal summation models. This finding indicates that in spite of statistically significant differences in the duration of immature development between females and males of C. maxillosus, there is no increase in the accuracy of insect age estimates while using the sex-specific thermal summation models compared to the general model. Accordingly, this study does not support the use of sex-specific developmental data for the estimation of insect age in forensic entomology.

Development of a statistical model for cervical cancer cell death with irreversible electroporation in vitro.

PubMed

Yang, Yongji; Moser, Michael A J; Zhang, Edwin; Zhang, Wenjun; Zhang, Bing

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a statistical model for cell death by irreversible electroporation (IRE) and to show that the statistic model is more accurate than the electric field threshold model in the literature using cervical cancer cells in vitro. HeLa cell line was cultured and treated with different IRE protocols in order to obtain data for modeling the statistical relationship between the cell death and pulse-setting parameters. In total, 340 in vitro experiments were performed with a commercial IRE pulse system, including a pulse generator and an electric cuvette. Trypan blue staining technique was used to evaluate cell death after 4 hours of incubation following IRE treatment. Peleg-Fermi model was used in the study to build the statistical relationship using the cell viability data obtained from the in vitro experiments. A finite element model of IRE for the electric field distribution was also built. Comparison of ablation zones between the statistical model and electric threshold model (drawn from the finite element model) was used to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the description of the ablation zone and its applicability in different pulse-setting parameters. The statistical models describing the relationships between HeLa cell death and pulse length and the number of pulses, respectively, were built. The values of the curve fitting parameters were obtained using the Peleg-Fermi model for the treatment of cervical cancer with IRE. The difference in the ablation zone between the statistical model and the electric threshold model was also illustrated to show the accuracy of the proposed statistical model in the representation of ablation zone in IRE. This study concluded that: (1) the proposed statistical model accurately described the ablation zone of IRE with cervical cancer cells, and was more accurate compared with the electric field model; (2) the proposed statistical model was able to estimate the value of electric field threshold for the computer simulation of IRE in the treatment of cervical cancer; and (3) the proposed statistical model was able to express the change in ablation zone with the change in pulse-setting parameters.

Using Data from Climate Science to Teach Introductory Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Witt, Gary

2013-01-01

This paper shows how the application of simple statistical methods can reveal to students important insights from climate data. While the popular press is filled with contradictory opinions about climate science, teachers can encourage students to use introductory-level statistics to analyze data for themselves on this important issue in public…

Statistical inference methods for sparse biological time series data.

PubMed

Ndukum, Juliet; Fonseca, Luís L; Santos, Helena; Voit, Eberhard O; Datta, Susmita

2011-04-25

Comparing metabolic profiles under different biological perturbations has become a powerful approach to investigating the functioning of cells. The profiles can be taken as single snapshots of a system, but more information is gained if they are measured longitudinally over time. The results are short time series consisting of relatively sparse data that cannot be analyzed effectively with standard time series techniques, such as autocorrelation and frequency domain methods. In this work, we study longitudinal time series profiles of glucose consumption in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae under different temperatures and preconditioning regimens, which we obtained with methods of in vivo nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. For the statistical analysis we first fit several nonlinear mixed effect regression models to the longitudinal profiles and then used an ANOVA likelihood ratio method in order to test for significant differences between the profiles. The proposed methods are capable of distinguishing metabolic time trends resulting from different treatments and associate significance levels to these differences. Among several nonlinear mixed-effects regression models tested, a three-parameter logistic function represents the data with highest accuracy. ANOVA and likelihood ratio tests suggest that there are significant differences between the glucose consumption rate profiles for cells that had been--or had not been--preconditioned by heat during growth. Furthermore, pair-wise t-tests reveal significant differences in the longitudinal profiles for glucose consumption rates between optimal conditions and heat stress, optimal and recovery conditions, and heat stress and recovery conditions (p-values <0.0001). We have developed a nonlinear mixed effects model that is appropriate for the analysis of sparse metabolic and physiological time profiles. The model permits sound statistical inference procedures, based on ANOVA likelihood ratio tests, for testing the significance of differences between short time course data under different biological perturbations.

VoxelStats: A MATLAB Package for Multi-Modal Voxel-Wise Brain Image Analysis.

PubMed

Mathotaarachchi, Sulantha; Wang, Seqian; Shin, Monica; Pascoal, Tharick A; Benedet, Andrea L; Kang, Min Su; Beaudry, Thomas; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gauthier, Serge; Labbe, Aurélie; Rosa-Neto, Pedro

2016-01-01

In healthy individuals, behavioral outcomes are highly associated with the variability on brain regional structure or neurochemical phenotypes. Similarly, in the context of neurodegenerative conditions, neuroimaging reveals that cognitive decline is linked to the magnitude of atrophy, neurochemical declines, or concentrations of abnormal protein aggregates across brain regions. However, modeling the effects of multiple regional abnormalities as determinants of cognitive decline at the voxel level remains largely unexplored by multimodal imaging research, given the high computational cost of estimating regression models for every single voxel from various imaging modalities. VoxelStats is a voxel-wise computational framework to overcome these computational limitations and to perform statistical operations on multiple scalar variables and imaging modalities at the voxel level. VoxelStats package has been developed in Matlab(®) and supports imaging formats such as Nifti-1, ANALYZE, and MINC v2. Prebuilt functions in VoxelStats enable the user to perform voxel-wise general and generalized linear models and mixed effect models with multiple volumetric covariates. Importantly, VoxelStats can recognize scalar values or image volumes as response variables and can accommodate volumetric statistical covariates as well as their interaction effects with other variables. Furthermore, this package includes built-in functionality to perform voxel-wise receiver operating characteristic analysis and paired and unpaired group contrast analysis. Validation of VoxelStats was conducted by comparing the linear regression functionality with existing toolboxes such as glim_image and RMINC. The validation results were identical to existing methods and the additional functionality was demonstrated by generating feature case assessments (t-statistics, odds ratio, and true positive rate maps). In summary, VoxelStats expands the current methods for multimodal imaging analysis by allowing the estimation of advanced regional association metrics at the voxel level.

The effects of a hardiness educational intervention on hardiness and perceived stress of junior baccalaureate nursing students.

PubMed

Jameson, Paula R

2014-04-01

Baccalaureate nursing education is stressful. The stress encompasses a range of academic, personal, clinical, and social reasons. A hardiness educational program, a tool for stress management, based on theory, research, and practice, exists to enhance the attitudes and coping strategies of hardiness (Maddi, 2007; Maddi et al., 2002). Research has shown that students who completed the hardiness educational program, subsequently improved in grade point average (GPA), college retention rates, and health (Maddi et al., 2002). Little research has been done to explore the effects of hardiness education with junior baccalaureate nursing students. Early identification of hardiness, the need for hardiness education, or stress management in this population may influence persistence in and completion of a nursing program (Hensel and Stoelting-Gettelfinger, 2011). Therefore, the aims were to determine if an increase in hardiness and a decrease in perceived stress in junior baccalaureate nursing students occurred in those who participated in a hardiness intervention. The application of the Hardiness Model and the Roy Adaptation Model established connections and conceptual collaboration among stress, stimuli, adaptation, and hardi-coping. A quasi-experimental non-equivalent control group with pre-test and post-test was used with a convenience sample of full-time junior level baccalaureate nursing students. Data were collected from August 2011 to December 2011. Results of statistical analyses by paired t-tests revealed that the hardiness intervention did not have a statistically significant effect on increasing hardiness scores. The hardiness intervention did have a statistically significant effect on decreasing perceived stress scores. The significant decrease in perceived stress was congruent with the Hardiness Model and the Roy Adaptation Model. Further hardiness research among junior baccalaureate nursing students, utilizing the entire hardiness intervention, was recommended. © 2013.

Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

2015-04-01

A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters. Correlation coefficients among optimised model parameters and total precipitation P, mean temperature T and mean flow Q are calculated to give an insight into parameter dependence on the hydrometeorological drivers. The results reveal high sensitivity of almost all model parameters towards calibration period. The highest variability is displayed by the refreezing coefficient, water holding capacity, and temperature gradient. The only statistically significant (decreasing) trend is detected in the evapotranspiration reduction threshold. Statistically significant correlation is detected between the precipitation gradient and precipitation depth, and between the time-area histogram base and flows. All other correlations are not statistically significant, implying that changes in optimised parameters cannot generally be linked to the changes in P, T or Q. As for the model performance, the model reproduces the observed runoff satisfactorily, though the runoff is slightly overestimated in wet periods. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) ranges from 0.44 to 0.79. Higher NSE values are obtained over wetter periods, what is supported by statistically significant correlation between NSE and flows. Overall, no systematic variations in parameters or in model performance are detected. Parameter variability may therefore rather be attributed to errors in data or inadequacies in the model structure. Further research is required to examine the impact of the calibration strategy or model structure on the variability in optimised parameters in time.

The Role of Leadership Support for Health Promotion in Employee Wellness Program Participation, Perceived Job Stress, and Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Hoert, Jennifer; Herd, Ann M; Hambrick, Marion

2018-05-01

The purpose of the study was to explore the relationship between leadership support for health promotion and job stress, wellness program participation, and health behaviors. A cross-sectional survey design was used. Four worksites with a range of wellness programs were selected for this study. Participants in this study were employees (n = 618) at 4 organizations (bank, private university, wholesale supplier, and public university) in the southeastern United States, each offering an employee wellness program. Response rates in each organization ranged from 3% to 34%. Leadership support for health promotion was measured with the Leading by Example instrument. Employee participation in wellness activities, job stress, and health behaviors were measured with multi-item scales. Correlation/regression analysis and descriptive statistics were used to analyze the relationships among the scaled variables. Employees reporting higher levels of leadership support for health promotion also reported higher levels of wellness activity participation, lower job stress, and greater levels of health behavior ( P = .001). To ascertain the amount of variance in health behaviors accounted for by the other variables in the study, a hierarchical regression analysis revealed a statistically significant model (model F 7,523 = 27.28; P = .001), with leadership support for health promotion (β = .19, t = 4.39, P = .001), wellness activity participation (β = .28, t = 6.95, P < .001), and job stress (β = -.27, t = -6.75, P ≤ .001) found to be significant predictors of health behaviors in the model. Exploratory regression analyses by organization revealed the focal variables as significant model predictors for only the 2 larger organizations with well-established wellness programs. Results from the study suggest that employees' perceptions of organizational leadership support for health promotion are related to their participation in wellness activities, perceived job stress levels, and health behaviors.

WAIS-IV subtest covariance structure: conceptual and statistical considerations.

PubMed

Ward, L Charles; Bergman, Maria A; Hebert, Katina R

2012-06-01

D. Wechsler (2008b) reported confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) with standardization data (ages 16-69 years) for 10 core and 5 supplemental subtests from the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale-Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV). Analyses of the 15 subtests supported 4 hypothesized oblique factors (Verbal Comprehension, Working Memory, Perceptual Reasoning, and Processing Speed) but also revealed unexplained covariance between Block Design and Visual Puzzles (Perceptual Reasoning subtests). That covariance was not included in the final models. Instead, a path was added from Working Memory to Figure Weights (Perceptual Reasoning subtest) to improve fit and achieve a desired factor pattern. The present research with the same data (N = 1,800) showed that the path from Working Memory to Figure Weights increases the association between Working Memory and Matrix Reasoning. Specifying both paths improves model fit and largely eliminates unexplained covariance between Block Design and Visual Puzzles but with the undesirable consequence that Figure Weights and Matrix Reasoning are equally determined by Perceptual Reasoning and Working Memory. An alternative 4-factor model was proposed that explained theory-implied covariance between Block Design and Visual Puzzles and between Arithmetic and Figure Weights while maintaining compatibility with WAIS-IV Index structure. The proposed model compared favorably with a 5-factor model based on Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory. The present findings emphasize that covariance model comparisons should involve considerations of conceptual coherence and theoretical adherence in addition to statistical fit. (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved

Inferring monopartite projections of bipartite networks: an entropy-based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saracco, Fabio; Straka, Mika J.; Di Clemente, Riccardo; Gabrielli, Andrea; Caldarelli, Guido; Squartini, Tiziano

2017-05-01

Bipartite networks are currently regarded as providing a major insight into the organization of many real-world systems, unveiling the mechanisms driving the interactions occurring between distinct groups of nodes. One of the most important issues encountered when modeling bipartite networks is devising a way to obtain a (monopartite) projection on the layer of interest, which preserves as much as possible the information encoded into the original bipartite structure. In the present paper we propose an algorithm to obtain statistically-validated projections of bipartite networks, according to which any two nodes sharing a statistically-significant number of neighbors are linked. Since assessing the statistical significance of nodes similarity requires a proper statistical benchmark, here we consider a set of four null models, defined within the exponential random graph framework. Our algorithm outputs a matrix of link-specific p-values, from which a validated projection is straightforwardly obtainable, upon running a multiple hypothesis testing procedure. Finally, we test our method on an economic network (i.e. the countries-products World Trade Web representation) and a social network (i.e. MovieLens, collecting the users’ ratings of a list of movies). In both cases non-trivial communities are detected: while projecting the World Trade Web on the countries layer reveals modules of similarly-industrialized nations, projecting it on the products layer allows communities characterized by an increasing level of complexity to be detected; in the second case, projecting MovieLens on the films layer allows clusters of movies whose affinity cannot be fully accounted for by genre similarity to be individuated.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rueegsegger, Michael B.; Bach Cuadra, Meritxell; Pica, Alessia

Purpose: Ocular anatomy and radiation-associated toxicities provide unique challenges for external beam radiation therapy. For treatment planning, precise modeling of organs at risk and tumor volume are crucial. Development of a precise eye model and automatic adaptation of this model to patients' anatomy remain problematic because of organ shape variability. This work introduces the application of a 3-dimensional (3D) statistical shape model as a novel method for precise eye modeling for external beam radiation therapy of intraocular tumors. Methods and Materials: Manual and automatic segmentations were compared for 17 patients, based on head computed tomography (CT) volume scans. A 3Dmore » statistical shape model of the cornea, lens, and sclera as well as of the optic disc position was developed. Furthermore, an active shape model was built to enable automatic fitting of the eye model to CT slice stacks. Cross-validation was performed based on leave-one-out tests for all training shapes by measuring dice coefficients and mean segmentation errors between automatic segmentation and manual segmentation by an expert. Results: Cross-validation revealed a dice similarity of 95% {+-} 2% for the sclera and cornea and 91% {+-} 2% for the lens. Overall, mean segmentation error was found to be 0.3 {+-} 0.1 mm. Average segmentation time was 14 {+-} 2 s on a standard personal computer. Conclusions: Our results show that the solution presented outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of accuracy, reliability, and robustness. Moreover, the eye model shape as well as its variability is learned from a training set rather than by making shape assumptions (eg, as with the spherical or elliptical model). Therefore, the model appears to be capable of modeling nonspherically and nonelliptically shaped eyes.« less

Comparison of linear, skewed-linear, and proportional hazard models for the analysis of lambing interval in Ripollesa ewes.

PubMed

Casellas, J; Bach, R

2012-06-01

Lambing interval is a relevant reproductive indicator for sheep populations under continuous mating systems, although there is a shortage of selection programs accounting for this trait in the sheep industry. Both the historical assumption of small genetic background and its unorthodox distribution pattern have limited its implementation as a breeding objective. In this manuscript, statistical performances of 3 alternative parametrizations [i.e., symmetric Gaussian mixed linear (GML) model, skew-Gaussian mixed linear (SGML) model, and piecewise Weibull proportional hazard (PWPH) model] have been compared to elucidate the preferred methodology to handle lambing interval data. More specifically, flock-by-flock analyses were performed on 31,986 lambing interval records (257.3 ± 0.2 d) from 6 purebred Ripollesa flocks. Model performances were compared in terms of deviance information criterion (DIC) and Bayes factor (BF). For all flocks, PWPH models were clearly preferred; they generated a reduction of 1,900 or more DIC units and provided BF estimates larger than 100 (i.e., PWPH models against linear models). These differences were reduced when comparing PWPH models with different number of change points for the baseline hazard function. In 4 flocks, only 2 change points were required to minimize the DIC, whereas 4 and 6 change points were needed for the 2 remaining flocks. These differences demonstrated a remarkable degree of heterogeneity across sheep flocks that must be properly accounted for in genetic evaluation models to avoid statistical biases and suboptimal genetic trends. Within this context, all 6 Ripollesa flocks revealed substantial genetic background for lambing interval with heritabilities ranging between 0.13 and 0.19. This study provides the first evidence of the suitability of PWPH models for lambing interval analysis, clearly discarding previous parametrizations focused on mixed linear models.

Favre-Averaged Turbulence Statistics in Variable Density Mixing of Buoyant Jets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charonko, John; Prestridge, Kathy

2014-11-01

Variable density mixing of a heavy fluid jet with lower density ambient fluid in a subsonic wind tunnel was experimentally studied using Particle Image Velocimetry and Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence to simultaneously measure velocity and density. Flows involving the mixing of fluids with large density ratios are important in a range of physical problems including atmospheric and oceanic flows, industrial processes, and inertial confinement fusion. Here we focus on buoyant jets with coflow. Results from two different Atwood numbers, 0.1 (Boussinesq limit) and 0.6 (non-Boussinesq case), reveal that buoyancy is important for most of the turbulent quantities measured. Statistical characteristics of the mixing important for modeling these flows such as the PDFs of density and density gradients, turbulent kinetic energy, Favre averaged Reynolds stress, turbulent mass flux velocity, density-specific volume correlation, and density power spectra were also examined and compared with previous direct numerical simulations. Additionally, a method for directly estimating Reynolds-averaged velocity statistics on a per-pixel basis is extended to Favre-averages, yielding improved accuracy and spatial resolution as compared to traditional post-processing of velocity and density fields.

Infants are superior in implicit crossmodal learning and use other learning mechanisms than adults

PubMed Central

von Frieling, Marco; Röder, Brigitte

2017-01-01

During development internal models of the sensory world must be acquired which have to be continuously adapted later. We used event-related potentials (ERP) to test the hypothesis that infants extract crossmodal statistics implicitly while adults learn them when task relevant. Participants were passively exposed to frequent standard audio-visual combinations (A1V1, A2V2, p=0.35 each), rare recombinations of these standard stimuli (A1V2, A2V1, p=0.10 each), and a rare audio-visual deviant with infrequent auditory and visual elements (A3V3, p=0.10). While both six-month-old infants and adults differentiated between rare deviants and standards involving early neural processing stages only infants were sensitive to crossmodal statistics as indicated by a late ERP difference between standard and recombined stimuli. A second experiment revealed that adults differentiated recombined and standard combinations when crossmodal combinations were task relevant. These results demonstrate a heightened sensitivity for crossmodal statistics in infants and a change in learning mode from infancy to adulthood. PMID:28949291

Extreme value statistics and finite-size scaling at the ecological extinction/laminar-turbulence transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Hong-Yan; Goldenfeld, Nigel

Experiments on transitional turbulence in pipe flow seem to show that turbulence is a transient metastable state since the measured mean lifetime of turbulence puffs does not diverge asymptotically at a critical Reynolds number. Yet measurements reveal that the lifetime scales with Reynolds number in a super-exponential way reminiscent of extreme value statistics, and simulations and experiments in Couette and channel flow exhibit directed percolation type scaling phenomena near a well-defined transition. This universality class arises from the interplay between small-scale turbulence and a large-scale collective zonal flow, which exhibit predator-prey behavior. Why is asymptotically divergent behavior not observed? Using directed percolation and a stochastic individual level model of predator-prey dynamics related to transitional turbulence, we investigate the relation between extreme value statistics and power law critical behavior, and show that the paradox is resolved by carefully defining what is measured in the experiments. We theoretically derive the super-exponential scaling law, and using finite-size scaling, show how the same data can give both super-exponential behavior and power-law critical scaling.

Observing Consistency in Online Communication Patterns for User Re-Identification

PubMed Central

Venter, Hein S.

2016-01-01

Comprehension of the statistical and structural mechanisms governing human dynamics in online interaction plays a pivotal role in online user identification, online profile development, and recommender systems. However, building a characteristic model of human dynamics on the Internet involves a complete analysis of the variations in human activity patterns, which is a complex process. This complexity is inherent in human dynamics and has not been extensively studied to reveal the structural composition of human behavior. A typical method of anatomizing such a complex system is viewing all independent interconnectivity that constitutes the complexity. An examination of the various dimensions of human communication pattern in online interactions is presented in this paper. The study employed reliable server-side web data from 31 known users to explore characteristics of human-driven communications. Various machine-learning techniques were explored. The results revealed that each individual exhibited a relatively consistent, unique behavioral signature and that the logistic regression model and model tree can be used to accurately distinguish online users. These results are applicable to one-to-one online user identification processes, insider misuse investigation processes, and online profiling in various areas. PMID:27918593

A Kramers-Moyal approach to the analysis of third-order noise with applications in option valuation.

PubMed

Popescu, Dan M; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula's theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option's and its underlier's price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a "delta-hedged" portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise.

A Kramers-Moyal Approach to the Analysis of Third-Order Noise with Applications in Option Valuation

PubMed Central

Popescu, Dan M.; Lipan, Ovidiu

2015-01-01

We propose the use of the Kramers-Moyal expansion in the analysis of third-order noise. In particular, we show how the approach can be applied in the theoretical study of option valuation. Despite Pawula’s theorem, which states that a truncated model may exhibit poor statistical properties, we show that for a third-order Kramers-Moyal truncation model of an option’s and its underlier’s price, important properties emerge: (i) the option price can be written in a closed analytical form that involves the Airy function, (ii) the price is a positive function for positive skewness in the distribution, (iii) for negative skewness, the price becomes negative only for price values that are close to zero. Moreover, using third-order noise in option valuation reveals additional properties: (iv) the inconsistencies between two popular option pricing approaches (using a “delta-hedged” portfolio and using an option replicating portfolio) that are otherwise equivalent up to the second moment, (v) the ability to develop a measure R of how accurately an option can be replicated by a mixture of the underlying stocks and cash, (vi) further limitations of second-order models revealed by introducing third-order noise. PMID:25625856

76 FR 16199 - Hours of Service of Railroad Employees; Substantive Regulations for Train Employees Providing...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-22

... statistically significant relationship is evaluated by way of the correlation coefficient (r) with statistical... . The analysis revealed a significant high correlation between reduced predicted crew effectiveness (as...

Millisecond Microwave Spikes: Statistical Study and Application for Plasma Diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rozhansky, I. V.; Fleishman, G. D.; Huang, G.-L.

2008-07-01

We analyze a dense cluster of solar radio spikes registered at 4.5-6 GHz by the Purple Mountain Observatory spectrometer (Nanjing, China), operating in the 4.5-7.5 GHz range with 5 ms temporal resolution. To handle the data from the spectrometer, we developed a new technique that uses a nonlinear multi-Gaussian spectral fit based on χ2 criteria to extract individual spikes from the originally recorded spectra. Applying this method to the experimental raw data, we eventually identified about 3000 spikes for this event, which allows us to make a detailed statistical analysis. Various statistical characteristics of the spikes have been evaluated, including the intensity distributions, the spectral bandwidth distributions, and the distribution of the spike mean frequencies. The most striking finding of this analysis is the distributions of the spike bandwidth, which are remarkably asymmetric. To reveal the underlaying microphysics, we explore the local-trap model with the renormalized theory of spectral profiles of the electron cyclotron maser (ECM) emission peak in a source with random magnetic irregularities. The distribution of the solar spike relative bandwidths calculated within the local-trap model represents an excellent fit to the experimental data. Accordingly, the developed technique may offer a new tool with which to study very low levels of magnetic turbulence in the spike sources, when the ECM mechanism of the spike cluster is confirmed.

Loop series for discrete statistical models on graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chertkov, Michael; Chernyak, Vladimir Y.

2006-06-01

In this paper we present the derivation details, logic, and motivation for the three loop calculus introduced in Chertkov and Chernyak (2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 065102(R)). Generating functions for each of the three interrelated discrete statistical models are expressed in terms of a finite series. The first term in the series corresponds to the Bethe-Peierls belief-propagation (BP) contribution; the other terms are labelled by loops on the factor graph. All loop contributions are simple rational functions of spin correlation functions calculated within the BP approach. We discuss two alternative derivations of the loop series. One approach implements a set of local auxiliary integrations over continuous fields with the BP contribution corresponding to an integrand saddle-point value. The integrals are replaced by sums in the complementary approach, briefly explained in Chertkov and Chernyak (2006 Phys. Rev. E 73 065102(R)). Local gauge symmetry transformations that clarify an important invariant feature of the BP solution are revealed in both approaches. The individual terms change under the gauge transformation while the partition function remains invariant. The requirement for all individual terms to be nonzero only for closed loops in the factor graph (as opposed to paths with loose ends) is equivalent to fixing the first term in the series to be exactly equal to the BP contribution. Further applications of the loop calculus to problems in statistical physics, computer and information sciences are discussed.

Predicting treatment failure, death and drug resistance using a computed risk score among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tamaulipas, Mexico.

PubMed

Abdelbary, B E; Garcia-Viveros, M; Ramirez-Oropesa, H; Rahbar, M H; Restrepo, B I

2017-10-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a method for identifying newly diagnosed tuberculosis (TB) patients at risk for TB adverse events in Tamaulipas, Mexico. Surveillance data between 2006 and 2013 (8431 subjects) was used to develop risk scores based on predictive modelling. The final models revealed that TB patients failing their treatment regimen were more likely to have at most a primary school education, multi-drug resistance (MDR)-TB, and few to moderate bacilli on acid-fast bacilli smear. TB patients who died were more likely to be older males with MDR-TB, HIV, malnutrition, and reporting excessive alcohol use. Modified risk scores were developed with strong predictability for treatment failure and death (c-statistic 0·65 and 0·70, respectively), and moderate predictability for drug resistance (c-statistic 0·57). Among TB patients with diabetes, risk scores showed moderate predictability for death (c-statistic 0·68). Our findings suggest that in the clinical setting, the use of our risk scores for TB treatment failure or death will help identify these individuals for tailored management to prevent these adverse events. In contrast, the available variables in the TB surveillance dataset are not robust predictors of drug resistance, indicating the need for prompt testing at time of diagnosis.

Stan: Statistical inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stan Development Team

2018-01-01

Stan facilitates statistical inference at the frontiers of applied statistics and provides both a modeling language for specifying complex statistical models and a library of statistical algorithms for computing inferences with those models. These components are exposed through interfaces in environments such as R, Python, and the command line.

Hyperspectral Mapping of the Invasive Species Pepperweed and the Development of a Habitat Suitability Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Andrew; Gole, Alexander; Randall, Jarom; Dlott, Glade; Zhang, Sylvia; Alfaro, Brian; Schmidt, Cindy; Skiles, J. W.

2011-01-01

Mapping and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive plant species is central to habitat management, however difficult to implement at landscape and regional scales. Remote sensing techniques can reduce the impact field campaigns have on these ecologically sensitive areas and can provide a regional and multi-temporal view of invasive species spread. Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) is now widespread in fragmented estuaries of the South San Francisco Bay, and is shown to degrade native vegetation in estuaries and adjacent habitats, thereby reducing forage and shelter for wildlife. The purpose of this study is to map the present distribution of pepperweed in estuarine areas of the South San Francisco Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (Alviso, CA), and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with a GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with 88 corresponding pepperweed presence and absence points used for building the statistical models. The spectral angle mapper (SAM) classification algorithm was used to distinguish the reflectance spectrum of pepperweed and map its distribution using an image from EO-1 Hyperion. To map pepperweed, we performed a supervised classification on an ASTER image with a resulting classification accuracy of 71.8%. We generated a weighted overlay analysis model within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to predict areas in the study site most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables for the model included propensity for disturbance, status of pond restoration, proximity to water channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a probability map and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to ponds and curvature were statistically significant (p < 0.01) in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats.

DISQOVER the Landcover - R based tools for quantitative vegetation reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theuerkauf, Martin; Couwenberg, John; Kuparinen, Anna; Liebscher, Volkmar

2016-04-01

Quantitative methods have gained increasing attention in the field of vegetation reconstruction over the past decade. The DISQOVER package implements key tools in the R programming environment for statistical computing. This implementation has three main goals: 1) Provide a user-friendly, transparent, and open implementation of the methods 2) Provide full flexibility in all parameters (including the underlying pollen dispersal model) 3) Provide a sandbox for testing the sensitivity of the methods. We illustrate the possibilities of the package with tests of the REVEALS model and of the extended downscaling approach (EDA). REVEALS (Sugita 2007) is designed to translate pollen data from large lakes into regional vegetation composition. We applied REVEALSinR on pollen data from Lake Tiefer See (NE-Germany) and validated the results with historic landcover data. The results clearly show that REVEALS is sensitive to the underlying pollen dispersal model; REVEALS performs best when applied with the state of the art Lagrangian stochastic dispersal model. REVEALS applications with the conventional Gauss model can produce realistic results, but only if unrealistic pollen productivity estimates are used. The EDA (Theuerkauf et al. 2014) employs pollen data from many sites across a landscape to explore whether species distributions in the past were related to know stable patterns in the landscape, e.g. the distribution of soil types. The approach had so far only been implemented in simple settings with few taxa. Tests with EDAinR show that it produces sharp results in complex settings with many taxa as well. The DISQOVER package is open source software, available from disqover.uni-greifswald.de. This website can be used as a platform to discuss and improve quantitative methods in vegetation reconstruction. To introduce the tool we plan a short course in autumn of this year. This study is a contribution to the Virtual Institute of Integrated Climate and Landscape Evolution (ICLEA; www.iclea.de) of the Helmholtz Association (Grant Number VH-VI-415) and is supported by Helmholtz infrastructure of the Terrestrial Environmental Observatory (TERENO) North-eastern Germany.

Effects of long-term representations on free recall of unrelated words

PubMed Central

Katkov, Mikhail; Romani, Sandro

2015-01-01

Human memory stores vast amounts of information. Yet recalling this information is often challenging when specific cues are lacking. Here we consider an associative model of retrieval where each recalled item triggers the recall of the next item based on the similarity between their long-term neuronal representations. The model predicts that different items stored in memory have different probability to be recalled depending on the size of their representation. Moreover, items with high recall probability tend to be recalled earlier and suppress other items. We performed an analysis of a large data set on free recall and found a highly specific pattern of statistical dependencies predicted by the model, in particular negative correlations between the number of words recalled and their average recall probability. Taken together, experimental and modeling results presented here reveal complex interactions between memory items during recall that severely constrain recall capacity. PMID:25593296

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2014-01-01

In a previous paper, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain their relevance to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to perhaps several of the AvSP top ten TC. That data also identified several primary causes and contributing factors for RI events that served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events. The system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of RI events in particular, and to improve runway safety in general. The development, structure and assessment of that BBN for RI events by a Subject Matter Expert panel are documented in this paper.

Prediction of BP reactivity to talking using hybrid soft computing approaches.

PubMed

Kaur, Gurmanik; Arora, Ajat Shatru; Jain, Vijender Kumar

2014-01-01

High blood pressure (BP) is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. Therefore, optimal precision in measurement of BP is appropriate in clinical and research studies. In this work, anthropometric characteristics including age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), and arm circumference (AC) were used as independent predictor variables for the prediction of BP reactivity to talking. Principal component analysis (PCA) was fused with artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neurofuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and least square-support vector machine (LS-SVM) model to remove the multicollinearity effect among anthropometric predictor variables. The statistical tests in terms of coefficient of determination (R (2)), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) revealed that PCA based LS-SVM (PCA-LS-SVM) model produced a more efficient prediction of BP reactivity as compared to other models. This assessment presents the importance and advantages posed by PCA fused prediction models for prediction of biological variables.

Artificial neural network modeling of the water quality index using land use areas as predictors.

PubMed

Gazzaz, Nabeel M; Yusoff, Mohd Kamil; Ramli, Mohammad Firuz; Juahir, Hafizan; Aris, Ahmad Zaharin

2015-02-01

This paper describes the design of an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the water quality index (WQI) using land use areas as predictors. Ten-year records of land use statistics and water quality data for Kinta River (Malaysia) were employed in the modeling process. The most accurate WQI predictions were obtained with the network architecture 7-23-1; the back propagation training algorithm; and a learning rate of 0.02. The WQI forecasts of this model had significant (p < 0.01), positive, very high correlation (ρs = 0.882) with the measured WQI values. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the relative importance of the land use classes to WQI predictions followed the order: mining > rubber > forest > logging > urban areas > agriculture > oil palm. These findings show that the ANNs are highly reliable means of relating water quality to land use, thus integrating land use development with river water quality management.

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, R. K.

1982-01-01

A two-component rain model has been developed for calculating attenuation statistics. In contrast to most other attenuation prediction models, the two-component model calculates the occurrence probability for volume cells or debris attenuation events. The model performed significantly better than the International Radio Consultative Committee model when used for predictions on earth-satellite paths. It is expected that the model will have applications in modeling the joint statistics required for space diversity system design, the statistics of interference due to rain scatter at attenuating frequencies, and the duration statistics for attenuation events.

Validating the WRF-Chem model for wind energy applications using High Resolution Doppler Lidar data from a Utah 2012 field campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitchell, M. J.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Banta, R. M.

2015-12-01

Models are important tools for assessing potential of wind energy sites, but the accuracy of these projections has not been properly validated. In this study, High Resolution Doppler Lidar (HRDL) data obtained with high temporal and spatial resolution at heights of modern turbine rotors were compared to output from the WRF-chem model in order to help improve the performance of the model in producing accurate wind forecasts for the industry. HRDL data were collected from January 23-March 1, 2012 during the Uintah Basin Winter Ozone Study (UBWOS) field campaign. A model validation method was based on the qualitative comparison of the wind field images, time-series analysis and statistical analysis of the observed and modeled wind speed and direction, both for case studies and for the whole experiment. To compare the WRF-chem model output to the HRDL observations, the model heights and forecast times were interpolated to match the observed times and heights. Then, time-height cross-sections of the HRDL and WRF-Chem wind speed and directions were plotted to select case studies. Cross-sections of the differences between the observed and forecasted wind speed and directions were also plotted to visually analyze the model performance in different wind flow conditions. A statistical analysis includes the calculation of vertical profiles and time series of bias, correlation coefficient, root mean squared error, and coefficient of determination between two datasets. The results from this analysis reveals where and when the model typically struggles in forecasting winds at heights of modern turbine rotors so that in the future the model can be improved for the industry.

Literature review of models on tire-pavement interaction noise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Tan; Burdisso, Ricardo; Sandu, Corina

2018-04-01

Tire-pavement interaction noise (TPIN) becomes dominant at speeds above 40 km/h for passenger vehicles and 70 km/h for trucks. Several models have been developed to describe and predict the TPIN. However, these models do not fully reveal the physical mechanisms or predict TPIN accurately. It is well known that all the models have both strengths and weaknesses, and different models fit different investigation purposes or conditions. The numerous papers that present these models are widely scattered among thousands of journals, and it is difficult to get the complete picture of the status of research in this area. This review article aims at presenting the history and current state of TPIN models systematically, making it easier to identify and distribute the key knowledge and opinions, and providing insight into the future research trend in this field. In this work, over 2000 references related to TPIN were collected, and 74 models were reviewed from nearly 200 selected references; these were categorized into deterministic models (37), statistical models (18), and hybrid models (19). The sections explaining the models are self-contained with key principles, equations, and illustrations included. The deterministic models were divided into three sub-categories: conventional physics models, finite element and boundary element models, and computational fluid dynamics models; the statistical models were divided into three sub-categories: traditional regression models, principal component analysis models, and fuzzy curve-fitting models; the hybrid models were divided into three sub-categories: tire-pavement interface models, mechanism separation models, and noise propagation models. At the end of each category of models, a summary table is presented to compare these models with the key information extracted. Readers may refer to these tables to find models of their interest. The strengths and weaknesses of the models in different categories were then analyzed. Finally, the modeling trend and future direction in this area are given.

New graduate nurses' experiences of bullying and burnout in hospital settings.

PubMed

Laschinger, Heather K Spence; Grau, Ashley L; Finegan, Joan; Wilk, Piotr

2010-12-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to test a model linking new graduate nurses' perceptions of structural empowerment to their experiences of workplace bullying and burnout in Canadian hospital work settings using Kanter's work empowerment theory. There are numerous anecdotal reports of bullying of new graduates in healthcare settings, which is linked to serious health effects and negative organizational effects. We tested the model using data from the first wave of a 2009 longitudinal study of 415 newly graduated nurses (<3 years of experience) in acute care hospitals across Ontario, Canada. Variables were measured using the Conditions of Work Effectiveness Questionnaire, Negative Acts Questionnaire-Revised and Maslach Burnout Inventory-General Survey. The final model fit statistics revealed a reasonably adequate fit (χ² = 14·9, d.f. = 37, IFI = 0·98, CFI = 0·98, RMSEA = 0·09). Structural empowerment was statistically significantly and negatively related to workplace bullying exposure (β = -0·37), which in turn, was statistically significantly related to all three components of burnout (Emotional exhaustion: β = 0·41, Cynicism: β = 0·28, EFFICACY: β = -0·17). Emotional exhaustion had a direct effect on cynicism (β = 0·51), which in turn, had a direct effect on efficacy (β = -0·34). Conclusion.  The results suggest that new graduate nurses' exposure to bullying may be less when their work environments provide access to empowering work structures, and that these conditions promote nurses' health and wellbeing. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Advanced Nursing © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Maternal Factors Predicting Cognitive and Behavioral Characteristics of Children with Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

May, Philip A.; Tabachnick, Barbara G.; Gossage, J. Phillip; Kalberg, Wendy O.; Marais, Anna-Susan; Robinson, Luther K.; Manning, Melanie A.; Blankenship, Jason; Buckley, David; Hoyme, H. Eugene; Adnams, Colleen M.

2013-01-01

Objective To provide an analysis of multiple predictors of cognitive and behavioral traits for children with fetal alcohol spectrum disorders (FASD). Method Multivariate correlation techniques were employed with maternal and child data from epidemiologic studies in a community in South Africa. Data on 561 first grade children with fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), partial FAS (PFAS), and not FASD and their mothers were analyzed by grouping 19 maternal variables into categories (physical, demographic, childbearing, and drinking) and employed in structural equation models (SEM) to assess correlates of child intelligence (verbal and non-verbal) and behavior. Results A first SEM utilizing only seven maternal alcohol use variables to predict cognitive/behavioral traits was statistically significant (B = 3.10, p < .05), but explained only 17.3% of the variance. The second model incorporated multiple maternal variables and was statistically significant explaining 55.3% of the variance. Significantly correlated with low intelligence and problem behavior were demographic (B = 3.83, p < .05) (low maternal education, low socioeconomic status (SES), and rural residence) and maternal physical characteristics (B = 2.70, p < .05) (short stature, small head circumference, and low weight). Childbearing history and alcohol use composites were not statistically significant in the final complex model, and were overpowered by SES and maternal physical traits. Conclusions While other analytic techniques have amply demonstrated the negative effects of maternal drinking on intelligence and behavior, this highly-controlled analysis of multiple maternal influences reveals that maternal demographics and physical traits make a significant enabling or disabling contribution to child functioning in FASD. PMID:23751886

Associations of Social Support, Friends Only Known Through the Internet, and Health-Related Quality of Life with Internet Gaming Disorder in Adolescence.

PubMed

Wartberg, Lutz; Kriston, Levente; Kammerl, Rudolf

2017-07-01

Internet Gaming Disorder (IGD) has been included in the current edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition (DSM-5). In the present study, the relationship among social support, friends only known through the Internet, health-related quality of life, and IGD in adolescence was explored for the first time. For this purpose, 1,095 adolescents aged from 12 to 14 years were surveyed with a standardized questionnaire concerning IGD, self-perceived social support, proportion of friends only known through the Internet, and health-related quality of life. The authors conducted unpaired t-tests, a chi-square test, as well as correlation and logistic regression analyses. According to the statistical analyses, adolescents with IGD reported lower self-perceived social support, more friends only known through the Internet, and a lower health-related quality of life compared with the group without IGD. Both in bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models, statistically significant associations between IGD and male gender, a higher proportion of friends only known through the Internet, and a lower health-related quality of life (multivariate model: Nagelkerke's R 2  = 0.37) were revealed. Lower self-perceived social support was related to IGD in the bivariate model only. In summary, quality of life and social aspects seem to be important factors for IGD in adolescence and therefore should be incorporated in further (longitudinal) studies. The findings of the present survey may provide starting points for the development of prevention and intervention programs for adolescents affected by IGD.

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The relationship between the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and the MMPI-2: a pilot study.

PubMed

Hansen, Anita L; Stokkeland, Lisa; Johnsen, Bjørn Helge; Pallesen, Ståle; Waage, Leif

2013-04-01

The goal of the study was to investigate the relationship between Hare's four-facet model of psychopathy and the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 (MMPI-2) in a forensic, culturally homogenous sample. 22 male prisoners from Bergen Prison participated. There was only a statistically significant negative zero-order correlation between the total PCL-R score and the score on the Depression scale of the MMPI-2. However, the results revealed that the four facets had different underlying correlates with negative affectivity. Overall, Facets 1 and 2 showed a tendency toward a negative relationship with the clinical scales on the MMPI-2, while Facets 3 and 4 had a positive relationship. Interestingly, partial correlations showed that Facet 4 of PCL-R was the only facet that correlated statistically significantly with the scores on the Psychopathic Deviate scale of the MMPI-2.

Spatiotemporal patterns of infant bronchiolitis in a Tennessee Medicaid population.

PubMed

Sloan, Chantel D; Gebretsadik, Tebeb; Wu, Pingsheng; Carroll, Kecia N; Mitchel, Edward F; Hartert, Tina V

2013-09-01

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of worldwide morbidity and mortality in infants, primarily through the induction of bronchiolitis. RSV epidemics are highly seasonal, occurring in the winter months in the northern hemisphere. Within the United States, RSV epidemic dynamics vary both spatially and temporally. This analysis employs a retrospective space–time scan statistic to locate spatiotemporal clustering of infant bronchiolitis in a very large Tennessee (TN) Medicaid cohort. We studied infants less than 6 months of age (N = 52,468 infants) who had an outpatient visit, emergency department visit, or hospitalization for bronchiolitis between 1995 and 2008. The scan statistic revealed distinctive and consistent patterns of deviation in epidemic timing. Eastern TN (Knoxville area) showed clustering in January and February, and Central TN (Nashville area) in November and December. This is likely due to local variation in geography-associated factors which should be taken into consideration in future modeling of RSV epidemics.

A Generalized Quantum Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niestegge, Gerd

2014-09-01

In quantum mechanics, the selfadjoint Hilbert space operators play a triple role as observables, generators of the dynamical groups and statistical operators defining the mixed states. One might expect that this is typical of Hilbert space quantum mechanics, but it is not. The same triple role occurs for the elements of a certain ordered Banach space in a much more general theory based upon quantum logics and a conditional probability calculus (which is a quantum logical model of the Lueders-von Neumann measurement process). It is shown how positive groups, automorphism groups, Lie algebras and statistical operators emerge from one major postulate - the non-existence of third-order interference (third-order interference and its impossibility in quantum mechanics were discovered by R. Sorkin in 1994). This again underlines the power of the combination of the conditional probability calculus with the postulate that there is no third-order interference. In two earlier papers, its impact on contextuality and nonlocality had already been revealed.

Climate drivers on malaria transmission in Arunachal Pradesh, India.

PubMed

Upadhyayula, Suryanaryana Murty; Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Chenna, Sumana; Parasaram, Vaideesh; Kadiri, Madhusudhan Rao

2015-01-01

The present study was conducted during the years 2006 to 2012 and provides information on prevalence of malaria and its regulation with effect to various climatic factors in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh, India. Correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling's T² statistics models are adopted to understand the effect of weather variables on malaria transmission. The epidemiological study shows that the prevalence of malaria is mostly caused by the parasite Plasmodium vivax followed by Plasmodium falciparum. It is noted that, the intensity of malaria cases declined gradually from the year 2006 to 2012. The transmission of malaria observed was more during the rainy season, as compared to summer and winter seasons. Further, the data analysis study with Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling's T² statistic has revealed that the climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall are the most influencing factors for the high rate of malaria transmission in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh.

Improving DHH students' grammar through an individualized software program.

PubMed

Cannon, Joanna E; Easterbrooks, Susan R; Gagné, Phill; Beal-Alvarez, Jennifer

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if the frequent use of a targeted, computer software grammar instruction program, used as an individualized classroom activity, would influence the comprehension of morphosyntax structures (determiners, tense, and complementizers) in deaf/hard-of-hearing (DHH) participants who use American Sign Language (ASL). Twenty-six students from an urban day school for the deaf participated in this study. Two hierarchical linear modeling growth curve analyses showed that the influence of LanguageLinks: Syntax Assessment and Intervention (LL) resulted in statistically significant gains in participants' comprehension of morphosyntax structures. Two dependent t tests revealed statistically significant results between the pre- and postintervention assessments on the Diagnostic Evaluation of Language Variation-Norm Referenced. The daily use of LL increased the morphosyntax comprehension of the participants in this study and may be a promising practice for DHH students who use ASL.

Public Perspectives Toward the Sexual Behavior of an Individual With Dementia Residing in Long-Term Care.

PubMed

Yelland, Erin L; Cless, Adam W; Mallory, Allen B; Cless, Jessica D

2018-06-01

This study examines public perspectives toward sexual behavior within a heterosexually married couple in which one individual has dementia and resides in a long-term care facility. Respondents included 318 adults in the Southern United States. Paired sample t tests were used to understand how the diagnosis of dementia statistically influenced participants' responses, and a logistic regression model was used to understand how a vignette character's sex and respondent characteristics influenced attitudes. Fifty-eight percent of respondents believed that a sexual relationship should be permitted for an adult with dementia, and t tests revealed that dementia had a statistical effect on participants' responses. Sex of the vignette character was not a predictor of attitudes. Participant's qualitative rationales are offered for additional insight. Respondents who felt that a couple should not engage in a sexual relationship commonly cited consent-related issues as their primary concern. Implications for policy development are discussed.

Self-Esteem, Locus of Control, and First-Time NCLEX-RN Passage of BSN Students at Historically Black Colleges and Universities.

PubMed

Chavis, Pamella Ivey

Relationships between self-esteem, locus of control (LOC), and first-time passage of National Council Licensure Examination for Registered Nurses (NCLEX-RN®) were examined at baccalaureate nursing programs at two historically black colleges and universities. Shortages continue to exceed demands for RNs prepared at the baccalaureate level. Inconsistent pass rates on the NCLEX-RN for graduates of historically black colleges and universities impede the supply of RNs. Surveys and archival data were used to examine characteristics of the sample and explore relationships among variables. All participants (N = 90) reported high self-esteem and internal LOC. Models suggested that all those with high self-esteem and internal LOC would pass the NCLEX-RN; only 85 percent passed the first time. Statistical analysis revealed a lack of statistical significance between self-esteem, LOC, and first-time passage. Variables not included in the study may have affected first-time passage.

Experimental econophysics: Complexity, self-organization, and emergent properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, J. P.

2015-03-01

Experimental econophysics is concerned with statistical physics of humans in the laboratory, and it is based on controlled human experiments developed by physicists to study some problems related to economics or finance. It relies on controlled human experiments in the laboratory together with agent-based modeling (for computer simulations and/or analytical theory), with an attempt to reveal the general cause-effect relationship between specific conditions and emergent properties of real economic/financial markets (a kind of complex adaptive systems). Here I review the latest progress in the field, namely, stylized facts, herd behavior, contrarian behavior, spontaneous cooperation, partial information, and risk management. Also, I highlight the connections between such progress and other topics of traditional statistical physics. The main theme of the review is to show diverse emergent properties of the laboratory markets, originating from self-organization due to the nonlinear interactions among heterogeneous humans or agents (complexity).

Mechanism of amido-thiourea catalyzed enantioselective imine hydrocyanation: transition state stabilization via multiple non-covalent interactions.

PubMed

Zuend, Stephan J; Jacobsen, Eric N

2009-10-28

An experimental and computational investigation of amido-thiourea promoted imine hydrocyanation has revealed a new and unexpected mechanism of catalysis. Rather than direct activation of the imine by the thiourea, as had been proposed previously in related systems, the data are consistent with a mechanism involving catalyst-promoted proton transfer from hydrogen isocyanide to imine to generate diastereomeric iminium/cyanide ion pairs that are bound to catalyst through multiple noncovalent interactions; these ion pairs collapse to form the enantiomeric alpha-aminonitrile products. This mechanistic proposal is supported by the observation of a statistically significant correlation between experimental and calculated enantioselectivities induced by eight different catalysts (P < 0.01). The computed models reveal a basis for enantioselectivity that involves multiple stabilizing and destabilizing interactions between substrate and catalyst, including thiourea-cyanide and amide-iminium interactions.

A model for estimating seasonal trends of ammonia emission from cattle manure applied to grassland in the Netherlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huijsmans, J. F. M.; Vermeulen, G. D.; Hol, J. M. G.; Goedhart, P. W.

2018-01-01

Field data on ammonia emission after liquid cattle manure ('slurry') application to grassland were statistically analysed to reveal the effect of manure and field characteristics and of weather conditions in eight consecutive periods after manure application. Logistic regression models, modelling the emission expressed as a percentage of the ammonia still present at the start of each period as the response variable, were developed separately for broadcast spreading, narrow band application (trailing shoe) and shallow injection. Wind speed, temperature, soil type, total ammoniacal nitrogen (TAN) content and dry matter content of the manure, application rate and grass height were selected as significant explanatory variables. Their effects differed for each application method and among periods. Temperature and wind speed were generally the most important drivers for emission. The fitted regression models were used to reveal seasonal trends in NH3 emission employing historical meteorological data for the years 1991-2014. The overall average emission was higher in early and midsummer than in early spring and late summer. This seasonal trend was most pronounced for broadcast spreading followed by narrow band application, and was almost absent for shallow injection. However, due to the large variation in weather conditions, emission on a particular day in early spring can be higher than on a particular day in summer. The analysis further revealed that, in a specific scenario and depending on the application technique, emission could be reduced with 20-30% by restricting manure application to favourable days, i.e. with weather conditions with minimal emission levels.

Baseline results of the first healthy schools evaluation among a community of young, Irish, urban disadvantaged children and a comparison of outcomes with international norms.

PubMed

Comiskey, Catherine M; O'Sullivan, Karin; Quirke, Mary B; Wynne, Ciara; Hollywood, Eleanor; MGillloway, Sinead

2012-11-01

In 2008, the Irish Government initiated a pilot Healthy Schools Programme based on the World Health Organization Health Promoting Schools Model among children attending schools officially designated as urban and disadvantaged. We present here the first results on physical and emotional health and the relationship between childhood depression and demographic and socioeconomic factors. The Healthy Schools Programme evaluation was a 3-year longitudinal outcome study among urban disadvantaged children aged 4 to 12 years. Physical and psychological health outcomes were measured using validated, international instruments at baseline. Outcomes at baseline were compared with international norms and where differences were found, results were statistically modeled to determine factors predicting poor outcomes. A total of 552 children responded at baseline, representing over 50% of all eligible children available to participate from 7 schools. Findings at baseline revealed that in general, children did not differ significantly from international norms. However, detailed analysis of the childhood depression scores revealed that in order of importance, psychological well-being, the school environment, social support, and peer relations and age were statistically significant predictors of increased childhood depression in children under 12 years of age. Future health and well-being studies in schools among urban disadvantaged children need to broaden their scope to include measures of depression in children under 12 years of age and be cognisant of the impact of the school environment on the mental and emotional health of the very young. © 2012, American School Health Association.

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon.

PubMed

Gray, Clark L; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E

2015-02-01

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions.

Declining Use of Wild Resources by Indigenous Peoples of the Ecuadorian Amazon

PubMed Central

Gray, Clark L.; Bozigar, Matthew; Bilsborrow, Richard E.

2015-01-01

Wild product harvesting by forest-dwelling peoples, including hunting, fishing, forest product collection and timber harvesting, is believed to be a major threat to the biodiversity of tropical forests worldwide. Despite this threat, few studies have attempted to quantify these activities across time or across large spatial scales. We use a unique longitudinal household survey (n = 480) to describe changes in these activities over time in 32 indigenous communities from five ethnicities in the northern Ecuadorian Amazon. To provide insight into the drivers of these changes, we also estimate multilevel statistical models of these activities as a function of household and community characteristics. These analyses reveal that participation in hunting, fishing, and forest product collection is high but declining across time and across ethnicities, with no evidence for a parallel decline in resource quality. However, participation in timber harvesting did not significantly decline and there is evidence of a decline in resource quality. Multilevel statistical models additionally reveal that household and community characteristics such as ethnicity, demographic characteristics, wealth, livelihood diversification, access to forest, participation in conservation programs and exposure to external markets are significant predictors of wild product harvesting. These characteristics have changed over time but cannot account for declining participation in resource harvesting. This finding suggests that participation is declining due to changes in the regional-scale social and economic context, including urbanization and the expansion of government infrastructure and services. The lesson for conservationists is that macro-scale social and economic conditions can drive reductions in wild product harvesting even in the absence of successful conservation interventions. PMID:25620805

[Applications of mathematical statistics methods on compatibility researches of traditional Chinese medicines formulae].

PubMed

Mai, Lan-Yin; Li, Yi-Xuan; Chen, Yong; Xie, Zhen; Li, Jie; Zhong, Ming-Yu

2014-05-01

The compatibility of traditional Chinese medicines (TCMs) formulae containing enormous information, is a complex component system. Applications of mathematical statistics methods on the compatibility researches of traditional Chinese medicines formulae have great significance for promoting the modernization of traditional Chinese medicines and improving clinical efficacies and optimizations of formulae. As a tool for quantitative analysis, data inference and exploring inherent rules of substances, the mathematical statistics method can be used to reveal the working mechanisms of the compatibility of traditional Chinese medicines formulae in qualitatively and quantitatively. By reviewing studies based on the applications of mathematical statistics methods, this paper were summarized from perspective of dosages optimization, efficacies and changes of chemical components as well as the rules of incompatibility and contraindication of formulae, will provide the references for further studying and revealing the working mechanisms and the connotations of traditional Chinese medicines.

Comparing physically-based and statistical landslide susceptibility model outputs - a case study from Lower Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Canli, Ekrem; Thiebes, Benni; Petschko, Helene; Glade, Thomas

2015-04-01

By now there is a broad consensus that due to human-induced global change the frequency and magnitude of heavy precipitation events is expected to increase in certain parts of the world. Given the fact, that rainfall serves as the most common triggering agent for landslide initiation, also an increased landside activity can be expected there. Landslide occurrence is a globally spread phenomenon that clearly needs to be handled. The present and well known problems in modelling landslide susceptibility and hazard give uncertain results in the prediction. This includes the lack of a universal applicable modelling solution for adequately assessing landslide susceptibility (which can be seen as the relative indication of the spatial probability of landslide initiation). Generally speaking, there are three major approaches for performing landslide susceptibility analysis: heuristic, statistical and deterministic models, all with different assumptions, its distinctive data requirements and differently interpretable outcomes. Still, detailed comparison of resulting landslide susceptibility maps are rare. In this presentation, the susceptibility modelling outputs of a deterministic model (Stability INdex MAPping - SINMAP) and a statistical modelling approach (generalized additive model - GAM) are compared. SINMAP is an infinite slope stability model which requires parameterization of soil mechanical parameters. Modelling with the generalized additive model, which represents a non-linear extension of a generalized linear model, requires a high quality landslide inventory that serves as the dependent variable in the statistical approach. Both methods rely on topographical data derived from the DTM. The comparison has been carried out in a study area located in the district of Waidhofen/Ybbs in Lower Austria. For the whole district (ca. 132 km²), 1063 landslides have been mapped and partially used within the analysis and the validation of the model outputs. The respective susceptibility maps have been reclassified to contain three susceptibility classes each. The comparison of the susceptibility maps was performed on a grid cell basis. A match of the maps was observed for grid cells located in the same susceptibility class. In contrast, a mismatch or deviation was observed for locations with different assigned susceptibility classes (up to two classes' difference). Although the modelling approaches differ significantly, more than 70% of the pixels reveal a match in the same susceptibility class. A mismatch by two classes' difference occurred in less than 2% of all pixels. Although the result looks promising and strengthens the confidence in the susceptibility zonation for this area, some of the general drawbacks related to the respective approaches still have to be addressed in further detail. Future work is heading towards an integration of probabilistic aspects into deterministic modelling.

Assessment of the influence of vegetarian diet on the occurrence of erosive and abrasive cavities in hard tooth tissues.

PubMed

Herman, Katarzyna; Czajczyńska-Waszkiewicz, Agnieszka; Kowalczyk-Zając, Małgorzata; Dobrzyński, Maciej

2011-11-25

The aim of the study was to determine the potential relation between vegetarian diet and tooth erosion and abrasion. The examination included 46 vegetarians and the same number in the control group. Clinical research was carried out in order to detect the presence of abrasive and erosive changes and the level of hygiene in oral cavities. The questionnaire survey concerned dietary and hygienic habits. Statistical analysis of the data was conducted with Chi-square test and Mann-Whitney U test. The relations between following a vegetarian diet and the occurrence of non-carious cavities was tested with models of logistic regression. Tooth erosion was present among 39.1% of vegetarians and 23.9% of controls, while abrasion appeared among 26.1% and 10.9%, respectively, and the differences were statistically insignificant. The distribution of the changes was similar in both groups. Among vegetarians, significantly more frequent consumption of sour products (predominantly raw vegetables and fruit and tomatoes) was observed. The level of oral hygiene and hygienic habits were similar in both groups. The analysis of statistical regression did not reveal any relations between following a vegetarian diet and the occurrence of tooth erosion and abrasion. The results did not reveal any direct influence of vegetarian diet on the occurrence of erosive and abrasive changes. However, in the vegetarian group, more frequent consumption of some sour products and more commonly used horizontal brushing method were observed, with a slightly higher occurrence of non-carious cavities. Further research is required to obtain unambiguous conclusions.

Population-wide distributions of neural activity during perceptual decision-making

PubMed Central

Machens, Christian

2018-01-01

Cortical activity involves large populations of neurons, even when it is limited to functionally coherent areas. Electrophysiological recordings, on the other hand, involve comparatively small neural ensembles, even when modern-day techniques are used. Here we review results which have started to fill the gap between these two scales of inquiry, by shedding light on the statistical distributions of activity in large populations of cells. We put our main focus on data recorded in awake animals that perform simple decision-making tasks and consider statistical distributions of activity throughout cortex, across sensory, associative, and motor areas. We transversally review the complexity of these distributions, from distributions of firing rates and metrics of spike-train structure, through distributions of tuning to stimuli or actions and of choice signals, and finally the dynamical evolution of neural population activity and the distributions of (pairwise) neural interactions. This approach reveals shared patterns of statistical organization across cortex, including: (i) long-tailed distributions of activity, where quasi-silence seems to be the rule for a majority of neurons; that are barely distinguishable between spontaneous and active states; (ii) distributions of tuning parameters for sensory (and motor) variables, which show an extensive extrapolation and fragmentation of their representations in the periphery; and (iii) population-wide dynamics that reveal rotations of internal representations over time, whose traces can be found both in stimulus-driven and internally generated activity. We discuss how these insights are leading us away from the notion of discrete classes of cells, and are acting as powerful constraints on theories and models of cortical organization and population coding. PMID:23123501

12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Appendix A to Subpart A of Part 327

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... pricing multipliers are derived from: • A model (the Statistical Model) that estimates the probability..., which is four basis points higher than the minimum rate. II. The Statistical Model The Statistical Model... to 1997. As a result, and as described in Table A.1, the Statistical Model is estimated using a...

Data Mining Methods for Omics and Knowledge of Crude Medicinal Plants toward Big Data Biology

PubMed Central

Afendi, Farit M.; Ono, Naoaki; Nakamura, Yukiko; Nakamura, Kensuke; Darusman, Latifah K.; Kibinge, Nelson; Morita, Aki Hirai; Tanaka, Ken; Horai, Hisayuki; Altaf-Ul-Amin, Md.; Kanaya, Shigehiko

2013-01-01

Molecular biological data has rapidly increased with the recent progress of the Omics fields, e.g., genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics that necessitates the development of databases and methods for efficient storage, retrieval, integration and analysis of massive data. The present study reviews the usage of KNApSAcK Family DB in metabolomics and related area, discusses several statistical methods for handling multivariate data and shows their application on Indonesian blended herbal medicines (Jamu) as a case study. Exploration using Biplot reveals many plants are rarely utilized while some plants are highly utilized toward specific efficacy. Furthermore, the ingredients of Jamu formulas are modeled using Partial Least Squares Discriminant Analysis (PLS-DA) in order to predict their efficacy. The plants used in each Jamu medicine served as the predictors, whereas the efficacy of each Jamu provided the responses. This model produces 71.6% correct classification in predicting efficacy. Permutation test then is used to determine plants that serve as main ingredients in Jamu formula by evaluating the significance of the PLS-DA coefficients. Next, in order to explain the role of plants that serve as main ingredients in Jamu medicines, information of pharmacological activity of the plants is added to the predictor block. Then N-PLS-DA model, multiway version of PLS-DA, is utilized to handle the three-dimensional array of the predictor block. The resulting N-PLS-DA model reveals that the effects of some pharmacological activities are specific for certain efficacy and the other activities are diverse toward many efficacies. Mathematical modeling introduced in the present study can be utilized in global analysis of big data targeting to reveal the underlying biology. PMID:24688691

A proposed metabolic strategy for monitoring disease progression in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Greenberg, Nicola; Grassano, Antonio; Thambisetty, Madhav; Lovestone, Simon; Legido-Quigley, Cristina

2009-04-01

A specific, sensitive and essentially non-invasive assay to diagnose and monitor Alzheimer's disease (AD) would be valuable to both clinicians and medical researchers. The aim of this study was to perform a metabonomic statistical analysis on plasma fingerprints. Objectives were to investigate novel biomarkers indicative of AD, to consider the role of bile acids as AD biomarkers and to consider whether mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is a separate disease from AD. Samples were analysed by ultraperformance liquid chromatography-MS and resulting data sets were interpreted using soft-independent modelling of class analogy statistical analysis methods. PCA models did not show any grouping of subjects by disease state. Partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DS) models yielded class separation for AD. However, as with earlier studies, model validation revealed a predictive power of Q(2)<0.5 and indicating their unsuitability for predicting disease state. Three bile acids were extracted from the data and quantified, up-regulation was observed for MCI and AD patients. PLS-DA did not support MCI being considered as a separate disease from AD with MCI patient metabolic profiles being significantly closer to AD patients than controls. This study suggested that further investigation into the lipid fraction of the metabolome may yield useful biomarkers for AD and metabolomic profiles could be used to predict disease state in a clinical setting.

Validation of cone beam computed tomography-based tooth printing using different three-dimensional printing technologies.

PubMed

Khalil, Wael; EzEldeen, Mostafa; Van De Casteele, Elke; Shaheen, Eman; Sun, Yi; Shahbazian, Maryam; Olszewski, Raphael; Politis, Constantinus; Jacobs, Reinhilde

2016-03-01

Our aim was to determine the accuracy of 3-dimensional reconstructed models of teeth compared with the natural teeth by using 4 different 3-dimensional printers. This in vitro study was carried out using 2 intact, dry adult human mandibles, which were scanned with cone beam computed tomography. Premolars were selected for this study. Dimensional differences between natural teeth and the printed models were evaluated directly by using volumetric differences and indirectly through optical scanning. Analysis of variance, Pearson correlation, and Bland Altman plots were applied for statistical analysis. Volumetric measurements from natural teeth and fabricated models, either by the direct method (the Archimedes principle) or by the indirect method (optical scanning), showed no statistical differences. The mean volume difference ranged between 3.1 mm(3) (0.7%) and 4.4 mm(3) (1.9%) for the direct measurement, and between -1.3 mm(3) (-0.6%) and 11.9 mm(3) (+5.9%) for the optical scan. A surface part comparison analysis showed that 90% of the values revealed a distance deviation within the interval 0 to 0.25 mm. Current results showed a high accuracy of all printed models of teeth compared with natural teeth. This outcome opens perspectives for clinical use of cost-effective 3-dimensional printed teeth for surgical procedures, such as tooth autotransplantation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring and accounting for publication bias in mental health: a brief overview of methods.

PubMed

Mavridis, Dimitris; Salanti, Georgia

2014-02-01

OBJECTIVE Publication bias undermines the integrity of published research. The aim of this paper is to present a synopsis of methods for exploring and accounting for publication bias. METHODS We discussed the main features of the following methods to assess publication bias: funnel plot analysis; trim-and-fill methods; regression techniques and selection models. We applied these methods to a well-known example of antidepressants trials that compared trials submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for regulatory approval. RESULTS The funnel plot-related methods (visual inspection, trim-and-fill, regression models) revealed an association between effect size and SE. Contours of statistical significance showed that asymmetry in the funnel plot is probably due to publication bias. Selection model found a significant correlation between effect size and propensity for publication. CONCLUSIONS Researchers should always consider the possible impact of publication bias. Funnel plot-related methods should be seen as a means of examining for small-study effects and not be directly equated with publication bias. Possible causes for funnel plot asymmetry should be explored. Contours of statistical significance may help disentangle whether asymmetry in a funnel plot is caused by publication bias or not. Selection models, although underused, could be useful resource when publication bias and heterogeneity are suspected because they address directly the problem of publication bias and not that of small-study effects.

Computational Dysfunctions in Anxiety: Failure to Differentiate Signal From Noise.

PubMed

Huang, He; Thompson, Wesley; Paulus, Martin P

2017-09-15

Differentiating whether an action leads to an outcome by chance or by an underlying statistical regularity that signals environmental change profoundly affects adaptive behavior. Previous studies have shown that anxious individuals may not appropriately differentiate between these situations. This investigation aims to precisely quantify the process deficit in anxious individuals and determine the degree to which these process dysfunctions are specific to anxiety. One hundred twenty-two subjects recruited as part of an ongoing large clinical population study completed a change point detection task. Reinforcement learning models were used to explicate observed behavioral differences in low anxiety (Overall Anxiety Severity and Impairment Scale score ≤ 8) and high anxiety (Overall Anxiety Severity and Impairment Scale score ≥ 9) groups. High anxiety individuals used a suboptimal decision strategy characterized by a higher lose-shift rate. Computational models and simulations revealed that this difference was related to a higher base learning rate. These findings are better explained in a context-dependent reinforcement learning model. Anxious subjects' exaggerated response to uncertainty leads to a suboptimal decision strategy that makes it difficult for these individuals to determine whether an action is associated with an outcome by chance or by some statistical regularity. These findings have important implications for developing new behavioral intervention strategies using learning models. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Madden–Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer

PubMed Central

Miyakawa, Tomoki; Satoh, Masaki; Miura, Hiroaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Noda, Akira T.; Yamada, Yohei; Kodama, Chihiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Yoneyama, Kunio

2014-01-01

Global cloud/cloud system-resolving models are perceived to perform well in the prediction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a huge eastward -propagating atmospheric pulse that dominates intraseasonal variation of the tropics and affects the entire globe. However, owing to model complexity, detailed analysis is limited by computational power. Here we carry out a simulation series using a recently developed supercomputer, which enables the statistical evaluation of the MJO prediction skill of a costly new-generation model in a manner similar to operational forecast models. We estimate the current MJO predictability of the model as 27 days by conducting simulations including all winter MJO cases identified during 2003–2012. The simulated precipitation patterns associated with different MJO phases compare well with observations. An MJO case captured in a recent intensive observation is also well reproduced. Our results reveal that the global cloud-resolving approach is effective in understanding the MJO and in providing month-long tropical forecasts. PMID:24801254

Service delivery innovation for hospital emergency management using rich organizational modelling.

PubMed

Dhakal, Yogit; Bhuiyan, Moshiur; Prasad, Pwc; Krishna, Aneesh

2018-04-01

The purpose of this article is to identify and assess service delivery issues within a hospital emergency department and propose an improved model to address them. Possible solutions and options to these issues are explored to determine the one that best fits the context. In this article, we have analysed the emergency department's organizational models through i* strategic dependency and rational modelling technique before proposing updated models that could potentially drive business process efficiencies. The results produced by the models, framework and improved patient journey in the emergency department were evaluated against the statistical data revealed from a reputed government organization related to health, to ensure that the key elements of the issues such as wait time, stay time/throughput, workload and human resource are resolved. The result of the evaluation was taken as a basis to determine the success of the project. Based on these results, the article recommends implementing the concept on actual scenario, where a positive result is achievable.

Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction skill of a new-generation global model demonstrated using a supercomputer.

PubMed

Miyakawa, Tomoki; Satoh, Masaki; Miura, Hiroaki; Tomita, Hirofumi; Yashiro, Hisashi; Noda, Akira T; Yamada, Yohei; Kodama, Chihiro; Kimoto, Masahide; Yoneyama, Kunio

2014-05-06

Global cloud/cloud system-resolving models are perceived to perform well in the prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a huge eastward -propagating atmospheric pulse that dominates intraseasonal variation of the tropics and affects the entire globe. However, owing to model complexity, detailed analysis is limited by computational power. Here we carry out a simulation series using a recently developed supercomputer, which enables the statistical evaluation of the MJO prediction skill of a costly new-generation model in a manner similar to operational forecast models. We estimate the current MJO predictability of the model as 27 days by conducting simulations including all winter MJO cases identified during 2003-2012. The simulated precipitation patterns associated with different MJO phases compare well with observations. An MJO case captured in a recent intensive observation is also well reproduced. Our results reveal that the global cloud-resolving approach is effective in understanding the MJO and in providing month-long tropical forecasts.

The impact of sea surface currents in wave power potential modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zodiatis, George; Galanis, George; Kallos, George; Nikolaidis, Andreas; Kalogeri, Christina; Liakatas, Aristotelis; Stylianou, Stavros

2015-11-01

The impact of sea surface currents to the estimation and modeling of wave energy potential over an area of increased economic interest, the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is investigated in this work. High-resolution atmospheric, wave, and circulation models, the latter downscaled from the regional Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) of the Copernicus marine service (former MyOcean regional MFS system), are utilized towards this goal. The modeled data are analyzed by means of a variety of statistical tools measuring the potential changes not only in the main wave characteristics, but also in the general distribution of the wave energy and the wave parameters that mainly affect it, when using sea surface currents as a forcing to the wave models. The obtained results prove that the impact of the sea surface currents is quite significant in wave energy-related modeling, as well as temporally and spatially dependent. These facts are revealing the necessity of the utilization of the sea surface currents characteristics in renewable energy studies in conjunction with their meteo-ocean forecasting counterparts.

Respiratory Disease Related Mortality and Morbidity on an Island of Greece Exposed to Perlite and Bentonite Mining Dust

PubMed Central

Sampatakakis, Stefanos; Linos, Athena; Papadimitriou, Eleni; Petralias, Athanasios; Dalma, Archontoula; Papasaranti, Eirini Saranti; Christoforidou, Eleni; Stoltidis, Melina

2013-01-01

A morbidity and mortality study took place, focused on Milos Island, where perlite and bentonite mining sites are located. Official data concerning number and cause of deaths, regarding specific respiratory diseases and the total of respiratory diseases, for both Milos Island and the Cyclades Prefecture were used. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) were computed, adjusted specifically for age, gender and calendar year. Tests of linear trend were performed. By means of a predefined questionnaire, the morbidity rates of specific respiratory diseases in Milos, were compared to those of the municipality of Oinofita, an industrial region. Chi-square analysis was used and the confounding factors of age, gender and smoking were taken into account, by estimating binary logistic regression models. The SMRs for Pneumonia and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) were found elevated for both genders, although they did not reach statistical significance. For the total of respiratory diseases, a statistically significant SMR was identified regarding the decade 1989–1998. The morbidity study revealed elevated and statistically significant Odds Ratios (ORs), associated with allergic rhinitis, pneumonia, COPD and bronchiectasis. An elevated OR was also identified for asthma. After controlling for age, gender and smoking, the ORs were statistically significant and towards the same direction. PMID:24129114

A reductionist perspective on quantum statistical mechanics: Coarse-graining of path integrals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sinitskiy, Anton V.; Voth, Gregory A., E-mail: gavoth@uchicago.edu

2015-09-07

Computational modeling of the condensed phase based on classical statistical mechanics has been rapidly developing over the last few decades and has yielded important information on various systems containing up to millions of atoms. However, if a system of interest contains important quantum effects, well-developed classical techniques cannot be used. One way of treating finite temperature quantum systems at equilibrium has been based on Feynman’s imaginary time path integral approach and the ensuing quantum-classical isomorphism. This isomorphism is exact only in the limit of infinitely many classical quasiparticles representing each physical quantum particle. In this work, we present a reductionistmore » perspective on this problem based on the emerging methodology of coarse-graining. This perspective allows for the representations of one quantum particle with only two classical-like quasiparticles and their conjugate momenta. One of these coupled quasiparticles is the centroid particle of the quantum path integral quasiparticle distribution. Only this quasiparticle feels the potential energy function. The other quasiparticle directly provides the observable averages of quantum mechanical operators. The theory offers a simplified perspective on quantum statistical mechanics, revealing its most reductionist connection to classical statistical physics. By doing so, it can facilitate a simpler representation of certain quantum effects in complex molecular environments.« less

A reductionist perspective on quantum statistical mechanics: Coarse-graining of path integrals.

PubMed

Sinitskiy, Anton V; Voth, Gregory A

2015-09-07

Computational modeling of the condensed phase based on classical statistical mechanics has been rapidly developing over the last few decades and has yielded important information on various systems containing up to millions of atoms. However, if a system of interest contains important quantum effects, well-developed classical techniques cannot be used. One way of treating finite temperature quantum systems at equilibrium has been based on Feynman's imaginary time path integral approach and the ensuing quantum-classical isomorphism. This isomorphism is exact only in the limit of infinitely many classical quasiparticles representing each physical quantum particle. In this work, we present a reductionist perspective on this problem based on the emerging methodology of coarse-graining. This perspective allows for the representations of one quantum particle with only two classical-like quasiparticles and their conjugate momenta. One of these coupled quasiparticles is the centroid particle of the quantum path integral quasiparticle distribution. Only this quasiparticle feels the potential energy function. The other quasiparticle directly provides the observable averages of quantum mechanical operators. The theory offers a simplified perspective on quantum statistical mechanics, revealing its most reductionist connection to classical statistical physics. By doing so, it can facilitate a simpler representation of certain quantum effects in complex molecular environments.

Respiratory disease related mortality and morbidity on an island of Greece exposed to perlite and bentonite mining dust.

PubMed

Sampatakakis, Stefanos; Linos, Athena; Papadimitriou, Eleni; Petralias, Athanasios; Dalma, Archontoula; Papasaranti, Eirini Saranti; Christoforidou, Eleni; Stoltidis, Melina

2013-10-14

A morbidity and mortality study took place, focused on Milos Island, where perlite and bentonite mining sites are located. Official data concerning number and cause of deaths, regarding specific respiratory diseases and the total of respiratory diseases, for both Milos Island and the Cyclades Prefecture were used. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) were computed, adjusted specifically for age, gender and calendar year. Tests of linear trend were performed. By means of a predefined questionnaire, the morbidity rates of specific respiratory diseases in Milos, were compared to those of the municipality of Oinofita, an industrial region. Chi-square analysis was used and the confounding factors of age, gender and smoking were taken into account, by estimating binary logistic regression models. The SMRs for Pneumonia and Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) were found elevated for both genders, although they did not reach statistical significance. For the total of respiratory diseases, a statistically significant SMR was identified regarding the decade 1989-1998. The morbidity study revealed elevated and statistically significant Odds Ratios (ORs), associated with allergic rhinitis, pneumonia, COPD and bronchiectasis. An elevated OR was also identified for asthma. After controlling for age, gender and smoking, the ORs were statistically significant and towards the same direction.

Statistics of Low-Mass Companions to Stars: Implications for Their Origin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stepinski, T. F.; Black, D. C.

2001-01-01

One of the more significant results from observational astronomy over the past few years has been the detection, primarily via radial velocity studies, of low-mass companions (LMCs) to solar-like stars. The commonly held interpretation of these is that the majority are "extrasolar planets" whereas the rest are brown dwarfs, the distinction made on the basis of apparent discontinuity in the distribution of M sin i for LMCs as revealed by a histogram. We report here results from statistical analysis of M sin i, as well as of the orbital elements data for available LMCs, to rest the assertion that the LMCs population is heterogeneous. The outcome is mixed. Solely on the basis of the distribution of M sin i a heterogeneous model is preferable. Overall, we find that a definitive statement asserting that LMCs population is heterogeneous is, at present, unjustified. In addition we compare statistics of LMCs with a comparable sample of stellar binaries. We find a remarkable statistical similarity between these two populations. This similarity coupled with marked populational dissimilarity between LMCs and acknowledged planets motivates us to suggest a common origin hypothesis for LMCs and stellar binaries as an alternative to the prevailing interpretation. We discuss merits of such a hypothesis and indicate a possible scenario for the formation of LMCs.

Multiplatform serum metabolic phenotyping combined with pathway mapping to identify biochemical differences in smokers.

PubMed

Kaluarachchi, Manuja R; Boulangé, Claire L; Garcia-Perez, Isabel; Lindon, John C; Minet, Emmanuel F

2016-10-01

Determining perturbed biochemical functions associated with tobacco smoking should be helpful for establishing causal relationships between exposure and adverse events. A multiplatform comparison of serum of smokers (n = 55) and never-smokers (n = 57) using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, UPLC-MS and statistical modeling revealed clustering of the classes, distinguished by metabolic biomarkers. The identified metabolites were subjected to metabolic pathway enrichment, modeling adverse biological events using available databases. Perturbation of metabolites involved in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiovascular diseases and cancer were identified and discussed. Combining multiplatform metabolic phenotyping with knowledge-based mapping gives mechanistic insights into disease development, which can be applied to next-generation tobacco and nicotine products for comparative risk assessment.

Hierarchical relaxation dynamics in a tilted two-band Bose-Hubbard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosme, Jayson G.

2018-04-01

We numerically examine slow and hierarchical relaxation dynamics of interacting bosons described by a tilted two-band Bose-Hubbard model. The system is found to exhibit signatures of quantum chaos within the spectrum and the validity of the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis for relevant physical observables is demonstrated for certain parameter regimes. Using the truncated Wigner representation in the semiclassical limit of the system, dynamics of relevant observables reveal hierarchical relaxation and the appearance of prethermalized states is studied from the perspective of statistics of the underlying mean-field trajectories. The observed prethermalization scenario can be attributed to different stages of glassy dynamics in the mode-time configuration space due to dynamical phase transition between ergodic and nonergodic trajectories.

High-Reproducibility and High-Accuracy Method for Automated Topic Classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lancichinetti, Andrea; Sirer, M. Irmak; Wang, Jane X.; Acuna, Daniel; Körding, Konrad; Amaral, Luís A. Nunes

2015-01-01

Much of human knowledge sits in large databases of unstructured text. Leveraging this knowledge requires algorithms that extract and record metadata on unstructured text documents. Assigning topics to documents will enable intelligent searching, statistical characterization, and meaningful classification. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is the state of the art in topic modeling. Here, we perform a systematic theoretical and numerical analysis that demonstrates that current optimization techniques for LDA often yield results that are not accurate in inferring the most suitable model parameters. Adapting approaches from community detection in networks, we propose a new algorithm that displays high reproducibility and high accuracy and also has high computational efficiency. We apply it to a large set of documents in the English Wikipedia and reveal its hierarchical structure.

Coupled crystal orientation-size effects on the strength of nano crystals

PubMed Central

Yuan, Rui; Beyerlein, Irene J.; Zhou, Caizhi

2016-01-01

We study the combined effects of grain size and texture on the strength of nanocrystalline copper (Cu) and nickel (Ni) using a crystal-plasticity based mechanics model. Within the model, slip occurs in discrete slip events exclusively by individual dislocations emitted statistically from the grain boundaries. We show that a Hall-Petch relationship emerges in both initially texture and non-textured materials and our values are in agreement with experimental measurements from numerous studies. We find that the Hall-Petch slope increases with texture strength, indicating that preferred orientations intensify the enhancements in strength that accompany grain size reductions. These findings reveal that texture is too influential to be neglected when analyzing and engineering grain size effects for increasing nanomaterial strength. PMID:27185364

Time-Frequency Cross Mutual Information Analysis of the Brain Functional Networks Underlying Multiclass Motor Imagery.

PubMed

Gong, Anmin; Liu, Jianping; Chen, Si; Fu, Yunfa

2018-01-01

To study the physiologic mechanism of the brain during different motor imagery (MI) tasks, the authors employed a method of brain-network modeling based on time-frequency cross mutual information obtained from 4-class (left hand, right hand, feet, and tongue) MI tasks recorded as brain-computer interface (BCI) electroencephalography data. The authors explored the brain network revealed by these MI tasks using statistical analysis and the analysis of topologic characteristics, and observed significant differences in the reaction level, reaction time, and activated target during 4-class MI tasks. There was a great difference in the reaction level between the execution and resting states during different tasks: the reaction level of the left-hand MI task was the greatest, followed by that of the right-hand, feet, and tongue MI tasks. The reaction time required to perform the tasks also differed: during the left-hand and right-hand MI tasks, the brain networks of subjects reacted promptly and strongly, but there was a delay during the feet and tongue MI task. Statistical analysis and the analysis of network topology revealed the target regions of the brain network during different MI processes. In conclusion, our findings suggest a new way to explain the neural mechanism behind MI.

A Large-Scale Super-Structure at z=0.65 in the UKIDSS Ultra-Deep Survey Field

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galametz, Audrey; Candels Clustering Working Group

2017-07-01

In hierarchical structure formation scenarios, galaxies accrete along high density filaments. Superclusters represent the largest density enhancements in the cosmic web with scales of 100 to 200 Mpc. As they represent the largest components of LSS, they are very powerful tools to constrain cosmological models. Since they also offer a wide range of density, from infalling group to high density cluster core, they are also the perfect laboratory to study the influence of environment on galaxy evolution. I will present a newly discovered large scale structure at z=0.65 in the UKIDSS UDS field. Although statistically predicted, the presence of such structure in UKIDSS, one of the most extensively covered and studied extragalactic field, remains a serendipity. Our follow-up confirmed more than 15 group members including at least three galaxy clusters with M200 10^14Msol . Deep spectroscopy of the quiescent core galaxies reveals that the most massive structure knots are at very different formation stage with a range of red sequence properties. Statistics allow us to map formation age across the structure denser knots and identify where quenching is most probably occurring across the LSS. Spectral diagnostics analysis also reveals an interesting population of transition galaxies we suspect are transforming from star-forming to quiescent galaxies.

Night shift work and lung cancer risk among female textile workers in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Kwon, Paul; Lundin, Jessica; Li, Wenjin; Ray, Roberta; Littell, Christopher; Gao, Daoli; Thomas, David B; Checkoway, Harvey

2015-01-01

In 2007, the International Agency for Research on Cancer classified shift work that involves circadian disruption as a probable human carcinogen. Suppression of the anti-neoplastic hormone, melatonin, is a presumed mechanism of action. We conducted a case-cohort study nested within a cohort of 267,400 female textile workers in Shanghai, China. Newly diagnosed lung cancer cases (n = 1451) identified during the study period (1989-2006) were compared with an age-stratified subcohort (n = 3040). Adjusting for age, smoking, parity, and endotoxin exposure, relative risks [hazard ratios (HRs)] were estimated by Cox regression modeling to assess associations with cumulative years and nights of rotating shift work. Results did not consistently reveal any increased risk of lung cancer among rotating shift work or statistically significant trends for both cumulative years (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.02; P(trend) = 0.294) and nights (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.00; P(trend) = 0.415). Further analyses imposing 10- and 20-year lag times for disease latency also revealed similar results. Contrary to the initial hypothesis, rotating nighttime shift work appears to be associated with a relatively reduced lung cancer risk although the magnitude of the effect was modest and not statistically significant.

Statistical Enrichment of Epigenetic States Around Triplet Repeats that Can Undergo Expansions

PubMed Central

Essebier, Alexandra; Vera Wolf, Patricia; Cao, Minh Duc; Carroll, Bernard J.; Balasubramanian, Sureshkumar; Bodén, Mikael

2016-01-01

More than 30 human genetic diseases are linked to tri-nucleotide repeat expansions. There is no known mechanism that explains repeat expansions in full, but changes in the epigenetic state of the associated locus has been implicated in the disease pathology for a growing number of examples. A comprehensive comparative analysis of the genomic features associated with diverse repeat expansions has been lacking. Here, in an effort to decipher the propensity of repeats to undergo expansion and result in a disease state, we determine the genomic coordinates of tri-nucleotide repeat tracts at base pair resolution and computationally establish epigenetic profiles around them. Using three complementary statistical tests, we reveal that several epigenetic states are enriched around repeats that are associated with disease, even in cells that do not harbor expansion, relative to a carefully stratified background. Analysis of over one hundred cell types reveals that epigenetic states generally tend to vary widely between genic regions and cell types. However, there is qualified consistency in the epigenetic signatures of repeats associated with disease suggesting that changes to the chromatin and the DNA around an expanding repeat locus are likely to be similar. These epigenetic signatures may be exploited further to develop models that could explain the propensity of repeats to undergo expansions. PMID:27013954

Multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial regression model: an application to estimate crash frequencies at intersections.

PubMed

Dong, Chunjiao; Clarke, David B; Yan, Xuedong; Khattak, Asad; Huang, Baoshan

2014-09-01

Crash data are collected through police reports and integrated with road inventory data for further analysis. Integrated police reports and inventory data yield correlated multivariate data for roadway entities (e.g., segments or intersections). Analysis of such data reveals important relationships that can help focus on high-risk situations and coming up with safety countermeasures. To understand relationships between crash frequencies and associated variables, while taking full advantage of the available data, multivariate random-parameters models are appropriate since they can simultaneously consider the correlation among the specific crash types and account for unobserved heterogeneity. However, a key issue that arises with correlated multivariate data is the number of crash-free samples increases, as crash counts have many categories. In this paper, we describe a multivariate random-parameters zero-inflated negative binomial (MRZINB) regression model for jointly modeling crash counts. The full Bayesian method is employed to estimate the model parameters. Crash frequencies at urban signalized intersections in Tennessee are analyzed. The paper investigates the performance of MZINB and MRZINB regression models in establishing the relationship between crash frequencies, pavement conditions, traffic factors, and geometric design features of roadway intersections. Compared to the MZINB model, the MRZINB model identifies additional statistically significant factors and provides better goodness of fit in developing the relationships. The empirical results show that MRZINB model possesses most of the desirable statistical properties in terms of its ability to accommodate unobserved heterogeneity and excess zero counts in correlated data. Notably, in the random-parameters MZINB model, the estimated parameters vary significantly across intersections for different crash types. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial modelling of landscape aesthetic potential in urban-rural fringes.

PubMed

Sahraoui, Yohan; Clauzel, Céline; Foltête, Jean-Christophe

2016-10-01

The aesthetic potential of landscape has to be modelled to provide tools for land-use planning. This involves identifying landscape attributes and revealing individuals' landscape preferences. Landscape aesthetic judgments of individuals (n = 1420) were studied by means of a photo-based survey. A set of landscape visibility metrics was created to measure landscape composition and configuration in each photograph using spatial data. These metrics were used as explanatory variables in multiple linear regressions to explain aesthetic judgments. We demonstrate that landscape aesthetic judgments may be synthesized in three consensus groups. The statistical results obtained show that landscape visibility metrics have good explanatory power. Ultimately, we propose a spatial modelling of landscape aesthetic potential based on these results combined with systematic computation of visibility metrics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Kinetics of Methane Production from Swine Manure and Buffalo Manure.

PubMed

Sun, Chen; Cao, Weixing; Liu, Ronghou

2015-10-01

The degradation kinetics of swine and buffalo manure for methane production was investigated. Six kinetic models were employed to describe the corresponding experimental data. These models were evaluated by two statistical measurements, which were root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) and Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The results showed that the logistic and Fitzhugh models could predict the experimental data very well for the digestion of swine and buffalo manure, respectively. The predicted methane yield potential for swine and buffalo manure was 487.9 and 340.4 mL CH4/g volatile solid (VS), respectively, which was close to experimental values, when the digestion temperature was 36 ± 1 °C in the biochemical methane potential assays. Besides, the rate constant revealed that swine manure had a much faster methane production rate than buffalo manure.

Integrative analysis of the Caenorhabditis elegans genome by the modENCODE project.

PubMed

Gerstein, Mark B; Lu, Zhi John; Van Nostrand, Eric L; Cheng, Chao; Arshinoff, Bradley I; Liu, Tao; Yip, Kevin Y; Robilotto, Rebecca; Rechtsteiner, Andreas; Ikegami, Kohta; Alves, Pedro; Chateigner, Aurelien; Perry, Marc; Morris, Mitzi; Auerbach, Raymond K; Feng, Xin; Leng, Jing; Vielle, Anne; Niu, Wei; Rhrissorrakrai, Kahn; Agarwal, Ashish; Alexander, Roger P; Barber, Galt; Brdlik, Cathleen M; Brennan, Jennifer; Brouillet, Jeremy Jean; Carr, Adrian; Cheung, Ming-Sin; Clawson, Hiram; Contrino, Sergio; Dannenberg, Luke O; Dernburg, Abby F; Desai, Arshad; Dick, Lindsay; Dosé, Andréa C; Du, Jiang; Egelhofer, Thea; Ercan, Sevinc; Euskirchen, Ghia; Ewing, Brent; Feingold, Elise A; Gassmann, Reto; Good, Peter J; Green, Phil; Gullier, Francois; Gutwein, Michelle; Guyer, Mark S; Habegger, Lukas; Han, Ting; Henikoff, Jorja G; Henz, Stefan R; Hinrichs, Angie; Holster, Heather; Hyman, Tony; Iniguez, A Leo; Janette, Judith; Jensen, Morten; Kato, Masaomi; Kent, W James; Kephart, Ellen; Khivansara, Vishal; Khurana, Ekta; Kim, John K; Kolasinska-Zwierz, Paulina; Lai, Eric C; Latorre, Isabel; Leahey, Amber; Lewis, Suzanna; Lloyd, Paul; Lochovsky, Lucas; Lowdon, Rebecca F; Lubling, Yaniv; Lyne, Rachel; MacCoss, Michael; Mackowiak, Sebastian D; Mangone, Marco; McKay, Sheldon; Mecenas, Desirea; Merrihew, Gennifer; Miller, David M; Muroyama, Andrew; Murray, John I; Ooi, Siew-Loon; Pham, Hoang; Phippen, Taryn; Preston, Elicia A; Rajewsky, Nikolaus; Rätsch, Gunnar; Rosenbaum, Heidi; Rozowsky, Joel; Rutherford, Kim; Ruzanov, Peter; Sarov, Mihail; Sasidharan, Rajkumar; Sboner, Andrea; Scheid, Paul; Segal, Eran; Shin, Hyunjin; Shou, Chong; Slack, Frank J; Slightam, Cindie; Smith, Richard; Spencer, William C; Stinson, E O; Taing, Scott; Takasaki, Teruaki; Vafeados, Dionne; Voronina, Ksenia; Wang, Guilin; Washington, Nicole L; Whittle, Christina M; Wu, Beijing; Yan, Koon-Kiu; Zeller, Georg; Zha, Zheng; Zhong, Mei; Zhou, Xingliang; Ahringer, Julie; Strome, Susan; Gunsalus, Kristin C; Micklem, Gos; Liu, X Shirley; Reinke, Valerie; Kim, Stuart K; Hillier, LaDeana W; Henikoff, Steven; Piano, Fabio; Snyder, Michael; Stein, Lincoln; Lieb, Jason D; Waterston, Robert H

2010-12-24

We systematically generated large-scale data sets to improve genome annotation for the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, a key model organism. These data sets include transcriptome profiling across a developmental time course, genome-wide identification of transcription factor-binding sites, and maps of chromatin organization. From this, we created more complete and accurate gene models, including alternative splice forms and candidate noncoding RNAs. We constructed hierarchical networks of transcription factor-binding and microRNA interactions and discovered chromosomal locations bound by an unusually large number of transcription factors. Different patterns of chromatin composition and histone modification were revealed between chromosome arms and centers, with similarly prominent differences between autosomes and the X chromosome. Integrating data types, we built statistical models relating chromatin, transcription factor binding, and gene expression. Overall, our analyses ascribed putative functions to most of the conserved genome.

A comparison of bicortical and intramedullary screw fixations of Jones' fractures.

PubMed

Husain, Zeeshan S; DeFronzo, Donna J

2002-01-01

Two different fixations for treatment of Jones' fracture were tested in bone models and cadaveric specimens to determine the differences in the stability of the constructs. A bicortical 3.5-mm cannulated cortical screw and an intramedullary 4.0-mm partially threaded cancellous screw were tested using physiologic loads with an Instron 8500 servohydraulic tensiometer (Instron Corporation, Canton, MA). In bone models, the bicortical construct (n = 5, 87+/-23 N) showed superior fixation strength (p = .0009) when compared to the intramedullary screw fixation (n = 5, 25+/-13 N). Cadaveric testing showed similar statistical significance (p = .0124) with the bicortical construct (n = 5, 152+/-71 N) having greater load resistance than the intramedullary screw fixation (n = 4, 29+/-20 N). In bone models, the bicortical constructs (23+/-9 N/mm) showed over twice the elastic modulus than the intramedullary screw fixations (9+/-4 N/mm) with statistical significance (p = .0115). The elastic modulus in the cadaveric group showed a similar pattern between the bicortical (19+/-17 N/mm) and intramedullary (9+/-6 N/mm) screw constructs. Analysis of the bicortical screw failure patterns revealed that screw orientation had a critical impact on fixation stability. The more distal the exit site of the bicortical screw was from the fracture site, the greater the load needed to displace the fixation.

Why weight? Modelling sample and observational level variability improves power in RNA-seq analyses

PubMed Central

Liu, Ruijie; Holik, Aliaksei Z.; Su, Shian; Jansz, Natasha; Chen, Kelan; Leong, Huei San; Blewitt, Marnie E.; Asselin-Labat, Marie-Liesse; Smyth, Gordon K.; Ritchie, Matthew E.

2015-01-01

Variations in sample quality are frequently encountered in small RNA-sequencing experiments, and pose a major challenge in a differential expression analysis. Removal of high variation samples reduces noise, but at a cost of reducing power, thus limiting our ability to detect biologically meaningful changes. Similarly, retaining these samples in the analysis may not reveal any statistically significant changes due to the higher noise level. A compromise is to use all available data, but to down-weight the observations from more variable samples. We describe a statistical approach that facilitates this by modelling heterogeneity at both the sample and observational levels as part of the differential expression analysis. At the sample level this is achieved by fitting a log-linear variance model that includes common sample-specific or group-specific parameters that are shared between genes. The estimated sample variance factors are then converted to weights and combined with observational level weights obtained from the mean–variance relationship of the log-counts-per-million using ‘voom’. A comprehensive analysis involving both simulations and experimental RNA-sequencing data demonstrates that this strategy leads to a universally more powerful analysis and fewer false discoveries when compared to conventional approaches. This methodology has wide application and is implemented in the open-source ‘limma’ package. PMID:25925576

Statistical assessment of changes in extreme maximum temperatures over Saudi Arabia, 1985-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raggad, Bechir

2018-05-01

In this study, two statistical approaches were adopted in the analysis of observed maximum temperature data collected from fifteen stations over Saudi Arabia during the period 1985-2014. In the first step, the behavior of extreme temperatures was analyzed and their changes were quantified with respect to the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring indices. The results showed a general warming trend over most stations, in maximum temperature-related indices, during the period of analysis. In the second step, stationary and non-stationary extreme-value analyses were conducted for the temperature data. The results revealed that the non-stationary model with increasing linear trend in its location parameter outperforms the other models for two-thirds of the stations. Additionally, the 10-, 50-, and 100-year return levels were found to change with time considerably and that the maximum temperature could start to reappear in the different T-year return period for most stations. This analysis shows the importance of taking account the change over time in the estimation of return levels and therefore justifies the use of the non-stationary generalized extreme value distribution model to describe most of the data. Furthermore, these last findings are in line with the result of significant warming trends found in climate indices analyses.

The bag-of-frames approach to audio pattern recognition: a sufficient model for urban soundscapes but not for polyphonic music.

PubMed

Aucouturier, Jean-Julien; Defreville, Boris; Pachet, François

2007-08-01

The "bag-of-frames" approach (BOF) to audio pattern recognition represents signals as the long-term statistical distribution of their local spectral features. This approach has proved nearly optimal for simulating the auditory perception of natural and human environments (or soundscapes), and is also the most predominent paradigm to extract high-level descriptions from music signals. However, recent studies show that, contrary to its application to soundscape signals, BOF only provides limited performance when applied to polyphonic music signals. This paper proposes to explicitly examine the difference between urban soundscapes and polyphonic music with respect to their modeling with the BOF approach. First, the application of the same measure of acoustic similarity on both soundscape and music data sets confirms that the BOF approach can model soundscapes to near-perfect precision, and exhibits none of the limitations observed in the music data set. Second, the modification of this measure by two custom homogeneity transforms reveals critical differences in the temporal and statistical structure of the typical frame distribution of each type of signal. Such differences may explain the uneven performance of BOF algorithms on soundscapes and music signals, and suggest that their human perception rely on cognitive processes of a different nature.

The prior statistics of object colors.

PubMed

Koenderink, Jan J

2010-02-01

The prior statistics of object colors is of much interest because extensive statistical investigations of reflectance spectra reveal highly non-uniform structure in color space common to several very different databases. This common structure is due to the visual system rather than to the statistics of environmental structure. Analysis involves an investigation of the proper sample space of spectral reflectance factors and of the statistical consequences of the projection of spectral reflectances on the color solid. Even in the case of reflectance statistics that are translationally invariant with respect to the wavelength dimension, the statistics of object colors is highly non-uniform. The qualitative nature of this non-uniformity is due to trichromacy.

Data-adaptive harmonic spectra and multilayer Stuart-Landau models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chekroun, Mickaël D.; Kondrashov, Dmitri

2017-09-01

Harmonic decompositions of multivariate time series are considered for which we adopt an integral operator approach with periodic semigroup kernels. Spectral decomposition theorems are derived that cover the important cases of two-time statistics drawn from a mixing invariant measure. The corresponding eigenvalues can be grouped per Fourier frequency and are actually given, at each frequency, as the singular values of a cross-spectral matrix depending on the data. These eigenvalues obey, furthermore, a variational principle that allows us to define naturally a multidimensional power spectrum. The eigenmodes, as far as they are concerned, exhibit a data-adaptive character manifested in their phase which allows us in turn to define a multidimensional phase spectrum. The resulting data-adaptive harmonic (DAH) modes allow for reducing the data-driven modeling effort to elemental models stacked per frequency, only coupled at different frequencies by the same noise realization. In particular, the DAH decomposition extracts time-dependent coefficients stacked by Fourier frequency which can be efficiently modeled—provided the decay of temporal correlations is sufficiently well-resolved—within a class of multilayer stochastic models (MSMs) tailored here on stochastic Stuart-Landau oscillators. Applications to the Lorenz 96 model and to a stochastic heat equation driven by a space-time white noise are considered. In both cases, the DAH decomposition allows for an extraction of spatio-temporal modes revealing key features of the dynamics in the embedded phase space. The multilayer Stuart-Landau models (MSLMs) are shown to successfully model the typical patterns of the corresponding time-evolving fields, as well as their statistics of occurrence.

Evaluation of Surface Flux Parameterizations with Long-Term ARM Observations

DOE PAGES

Liu, Gang; Liu, Yangang; Endo, Satoshi

2013-02-01

Surface momentum, sensible heat, and latent heat fluxes are critical for atmospheric processes such as clouds and precipitation, and are parameterized in a variety of models ranging from cloud-resolving models to large-scale weather and climate models. However, direct evaluation of the parameterization schemes for these surface fluxes is rare due to limited observations. This study takes advantage of the long-term observations of surface fluxes collected at the Southern Great Plains site by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program to evaluate the six surface flux parameterization schemes commonly used in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and threemore » U.S. general circulation models (GCMs). The unprecedented 7-yr-long measurements by the eddy correlation (EC) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) methods permit statistical evaluation of all six parameterizations under a variety of stability conditions, diurnal cycles, and seasonal variations. The statistical analyses show that the momentum flux parameterization agrees best with the EC observations, followed by latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and evaporation ratio/Bowen ratio. The overall performance of the parameterizations depends on atmospheric stability, being best under neutral stratification and deteriorating toward both more stable and more unstable conditions. Further diagnostic analysis reveals that in addition to the parameterization schemes themselves, the discrepancies between observed and parameterized sensible and latent heat fluxes may stem from inadequate use of input variables such as surface temperature, moisture availability, and roughness length. The results demonstrate the need for improving the land surface models and measurements of surface properties, which would permit the evaluation of full land surface models.« less

A global goodness-of-fit statistic for Cox regression models.

PubMed

Parzen, M; Lipsitz, S R

1999-06-01

In this paper, a global goodness-of-fit test statistic for a Cox regression model, which has an approximate chi-squared distribution when the model has been correctly specified, is proposed. Our goodness-of-fit statistic is global and has power to detect if interactions or higher order powers of covariates in the model are needed. The proposed statistic is similar to the Hosmer and Lemeshow (1980, Communications in Statistics A10, 1043-1069) goodness-of-fit statistic for binary data as well as Schoenfeld's (1980, Biometrika 67, 145-153) statistic for the Cox model. The methods are illustrated using data from a Mayo Clinic trial in primary billiary cirrhosis of the liver (Fleming and Harrington, 1991, Counting Processes and Survival Analysis), in which the outcome is the time until liver transplantation or death. The are 17 possible covariates. Two Cox proportional hazards models are fit to the data, and the proposed goodness-of-fit statistic is applied to the fitted models.

Central Limit Theorem for Exponentially Quasi-local Statistics of Spin Models on Cayley Graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, Tulasi Ram; Vadlamani, Sreekar; Yogeshwaran, D.

2018-04-01

Central limit theorems for linear statistics of lattice random fields (including spin models) are usually proven under suitable mixing conditions or quasi-associativity. Many interesting examples of spin models do not satisfy mixing conditions, and on the other hand, it does not seem easy to show central limit theorem for local statistics via quasi-associativity. In this work, we prove general central limit theorems for local statistics and exponentially quasi-local statistics of spin models on discrete Cayley graphs with polynomial growth. Further, we supplement these results by proving similar central limit theorems for random fields on discrete Cayley graphs taking values in a countable space, but under the stronger assumptions of α -mixing (for local statistics) and exponential α -mixing (for exponentially quasi-local statistics). All our central limit theorems assume a suitable variance lower bound like many others in the literature. We illustrate our general central limit theorem with specific examples of lattice spin models and statistics arising in computational topology, statistical physics and random networks. Examples of clustering spin models include quasi-associated spin models with fast decaying covariances like the off-critical Ising model, level sets of Gaussian random fields with fast decaying covariances like the massive Gaussian free field and determinantal point processes with fast decaying kernels. Examples of local statistics include intrinsic volumes, face counts, component counts of random cubical complexes while exponentially quasi-local statistics include nearest neighbour distances in spin models and Betti numbers of sub-critical random cubical complexes.

Visualization of the variability of 3D statistical shape models by animation.

PubMed

Lamecker, Hans; Seebass, Martin; Lange, Thomas; Hege, Hans-Christian; Deuflhard, Peter

2004-01-01

Models of the 3D shape of anatomical objects and the knowledge about their statistical variability are of great benefit in many computer assisted medical applications like images analysis, therapy or surgery planning. Statistical model of shapes have successfully been applied to automate the task of image segmentation. The generation of 3D statistical shape models requires the identification of corresponding points on two shapes. This remains a difficult problem, especially for shapes of complicated topology. In order to interpret and validate variations encoded in a statistical shape model, visual inspection is of great importance. This work describes the generation and interpretation of statistical shape models of the liver and the pelvic bone.

Hyperparameterization of soil moisture statistical models for North America with Ensemble Learning Models (Elm)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steinberg, P. D.; Brener, G.; Duffy, D.; Nearing, G. S.; Pelissier, C.

2017-12-01

Hyperparameterization, of statistical models, i.e. automated model scoring and selection, such as evolutionary algorithms, grid searches, and randomized searches, can improve forecast model skill by reducing errors associated with model parameterization, model structure, and statistical properties of training data. Ensemble Learning Models (Elm), and the related Earthio package, provide a flexible interface for automating the selection of parameters and model structure for machine learning models common in climate science and land cover classification, offering convenient tools for loading NetCDF, HDF, Grib, or GeoTiff files, decomposition methods like PCA and manifold learning, and parallel training and prediction with unsupervised and supervised classification, clustering, and regression estimators. Continuum Analytics is using Elm to experiment with statistical soil moisture forecasting based on meteorological forcing data from NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). There Elm is using the NSGA-2 multiobjective optimization algorithm for optimizing statistical preprocessing of forcing data to improve goodness-of-fit for statistical models (i.e. feature engineering). This presentation will discuss Elm and its components, including dask (distributed task scheduling), xarray (data structures for n-dimensional arrays), and scikit-learn (statistical preprocessing, clustering, classification, regression), and it will show how NSGA-2 is being used for automate selection of soil moisture forecast statistical models for North America.

Temporal switching of homo-FRET pathways in single-chromophore dimer models of π-conjugated polymers.

PubMed

Stangl, Thomas; Bange, Sebastian; Schmitz, Daniela; Würsch, Dominik; Höger, Sigurd; Vogelsang, Jan; Lupton, John M

2013-01-09

A set of π-conjugated oligomer dimers templated in molecular scaffolds is presented as a model system for studying the interactions between chromophores in conjugated polymers (CPs). Single-molecule spectroscopy was used to reveal energy transfer dynamics between two oligomers in either a parallel or oblique-angle geometry. In particular, the conformation of single molecules embedded in a host matrix was investigated via polarized excitation and emission fluorescence microscopy in combination with fluorescence correlation spectroscopy. While the intramolecular interchromophore conformation was found to have no impact on the fluorescence quantum yield, lifetime, or photon statistics (antibunching), the long-term nonequilibrium dynamics of energy transfer within these bichromophoric systems was accessible by studying the linear dichroism in emission at the single-molecule level, which revealed reversible switching of the emission between the two oligomers. In bulk polymer films, interchromophore coupling promotes the migration of excitation energy to quenching sites. Realizing the presence and dynamics of such interactions is crucial for understanding limitations on the quantum efficiency of larger CP materials.

Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlitz, Lars; Gafurov, Abror; Apel, Heiko; Unger-Sayesteh, Katy; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

Statistical climate forecast applications typically utilize a small set of large scale SST or climate indices, such as ENSO, PDO or AMO as predictor variables. If the predictive skill of these large scale modes is insufficient, specific predictor variables such as customized SST patterns are frequently included. Hence statistically based climate forecast models are either based on a fixed number of climate indices (and thus might not consider important predictor variables) or are highly site specific and barely transferable to other regions. With the aim of developing an operational seasonal forecast model, which is easily transferable to any region in the world, we present a generic data mining approach which automatically selects potential predictors from gridded SST observations and reanalysis derived large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and generates robust statistical relationships with posterior precipitation anomalies for user selected target regions. Potential predictor variables are derived by means of a cellwise correlation analysis of precipitation anomalies with gridded global climate variables under consideration of varying lead times. Significantly correlated grid cells are subsequently aggregated to predictor regions by means of a variability based cluster analysis. Finally for every month and lead time, an individual random forest based forecast model is automatically calibrated and evaluated by means of the preliminary generated predictor variables. The model is exemplarily applied and evaluated for selected headwater catchments in Central and South Asia. Particularly the for winter and spring precipitation (which is associated with westerly disturbances in the entire target domain) the model shows solid results with correlation coefficients up to 0.7, although the variability of precipitation rates is highly underestimated. Likewise for the monsoonal precipitation amounts in the South Asian target areas a certain skill of the model could be detected. The skill of the model for the dry summer season in Central Asia and the transition seasons over South Asia is found to be low. A sensitivity analysis by means on well known climate indices reveals the major large scale controlling mechanisms for the seasonal precipitation climate of each target area. For the Central Asian target areas, both, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation are identified as important controlling factors for precipitation totals during moist spring season. Drought conditions are found to be triggered by a warm ENSO phase in combination with a positive phase of the NAO. For the monsoonal summer precipitation amounts over Southern Asia, the model suggests a distinct negative response to El Nino events.

Unveiling Galaxy Bias via the Halo Model, KiDS and GAMA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornik, Andrej; Hoekstra, Henk; Kuijken, Konrad; Schneider, Peter; Amon, Alexandra; Nakajima, Reiko; Viola, Massimo; Choi, Ami; Erben, Thomas; Farrow, Daniel J.; Heymans, Catherine; Hildebrandt, Hendrik; Sifón, Cristóbal; Wang, Lingyu

2018-06-01

We measure the projected galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing signals using the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) to study galaxy bias. We use the concept of non-linear and stochastic galaxy biasing in the framework of halo occupation statistics to constrain the parameters of the halo occupation statistics and to unveil the origin of galaxy biasing. The bias function Γgm(rp), where rp is the projected comoving separation, is evaluated using the analytical halo model from which the scale dependence of Γgm(rp), and the origin of the non-linearity and stochasticity in halo occupation models can be inferred. Our observations unveil the physical reason for the non-linearity and stochasticity, further explored using hydrodynamical simulations, with the stochasticity mostly originating from the non-Poissonian behaviour of satellite galaxies in the dark matter haloes and their spatial distribution, which does not follow the spatial distribution of dark matter in the halo. The observed non-linearity is mostly due to the presence of the central galaxies, as was noted from previous theoretical work on the same topic. We also see that overall, more massive galaxies reveal a stronger scale dependence, and out to a larger radius. Our results show that a wealth of information about galaxy bias is hidden in halo occupation models. These models should therefore be used to determine the influence of galaxy bias in cosmological studies.

Imaging plus X: multimodal models of neurodegenerative disease.

PubMed

Oxtoby, Neil P; Alexander, Daniel C

2017-08-01

This article argues that the time is approaching for data-driven disease modelling to take centre stage in the study and management of neurodegenerative disease. The snowstorm of data now available to the clinician defies qualitative evaluation; the heterogeneity of data types complicates integration through traditional statistical methods; and the large datasets becoming available remain far from the big-data sizes necessary for fully data-driven machine-learning approaches. The recent emergence of data-driven disease progression models provides a balance between imposed knowledge of disease features and patterns learned from data. The resulting models are both predictive of disease progression in individual patients and informative in terms of revealing underlying biological patterns. Largely inspired by observational models, data-driven disease progression models have emerged in the last few years as a feasible means for understanding the development of neurodegenerative diseases. These models have revealed insights into frontotemporal dementia, Huntington's disease, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease and other conditions. For example, event-based models have revealed finer graded understanding of progression patterns; self-modelling regression and differential equation models have provided data-driven biomarker trajectories; spatiotemporal models have shown that brain shape changes, for example of the hippocampus, can occur before detectable neurodegeneration; and network models have provided some support for prion-like mechanistic hypotheses of disease propagation. The most mature results are in sporadic Alzheimer's disease, in large part because of the availability of the Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative dataset. Results generally support the prevailing amyloid-led hypothetical model of Alzheimer's disease, while revealing finer detail and insight into disease progression. The emerging field of disease progression modelling provides a natural mechanism to integrate different kinds of information, for example from imaging, serum and cerebrospinal fluid markers and cognitive tests, to obtain new insights into progressive diseases. Such insights include fine-grained longitudinal patterns of neurodegeneration, from early stages, and the heterogeneity of these trajectories over the population. More pragmatically, such models enable finer precision in patient staging and stratification, prediction of progression rates and earlier and better identification of at-risk individuals. We argue that this will make disease progression modelling invaluable for recruitment and end-points in future clinical trials, potentially ameliorating the high failure rate in trials of, e.g., Alzheimer's disease therapies. We review the state of the art in these techniques and discuss the future steps required to translate the ideas to front-line application.

Hydrologic Design in the Anthropocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, R. M.; Farmer, W. H.; Read, L.

2014-12-01

In an era dubbed the Anthropocene, the natural world is being transformed by a myriad of human influences. As anthropogenic impacts permeate hydrologic systems, hydrologists are challenged to fully account for such changes and develop new methods of hydrologic design. Deterministic watershed models (DWM), which can account for the impacts of changes in land use, climate and infrastructure, are becoming increasing popular for the design of flood and/or drought protection measures. As with all models that are calibrated to existing datasets, DWMs are subject to model error or uncertainty. In practice, the model error component of DWM predictions is typically ignored yet DWM simulations which ignore model error produce model output which cannot reproduce the statistical properties of the observations they are intended to replicate. In the context of hydrologic design, we demonstrate how ignoring model error can lead to systematic downward bias in flood quantiles, upward bias in drought quantiles and upward bias in water supply yields. By reincorporating model error, we document how DWM models can be used to generate results that mimic actual observations and preserve their statistical behavior. In addition to use of DWM for improved predictions in a changing world, improved communication of the risk and reliability is also needed. Traditional statements of risk and reliability in hydrologic design have been characterized by return periods, but such statements often assume that the annual probability of experiencing a design event remains constant throughout the project horizon. We document the general impact of nonstationarity on the average return period and reliability in the context of hydrologic design. Our analyses reveal that return periods do not provide meaningful expressions of the likelihood of future hydrologic events. Instead, knowledge of system reliability over future planning horizons can more effectively prepare society and communicate the likelihood of future hydrologic events of interest.

Earthquake Predictability: Results From Aggregating Seismicity Data And Assessment Of Theoretical Individual Cases Via Synthetic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamaki, A.; Roberts, R.

2016-12-01

For many years an important aim in seismological studies has been forecasting the occurrence of large earthquakes. Despite some well-established statistical behavior of earthquake sequences, expressed by e.g. the Omori law for aftershock sequences and the Gutenburg-Richter distribution of event magnitudes, purely statistical approaches to short-term earthquake prediction have in general not been successful. It seems that better understanding of the processes leading to critical stress build-up prior to larger events is necessary to identify useful precursory activity, if this exists, and statistical analyses are an important tool in this context. There has been considerable debate on the usefulness or otherwise of foreshock studies for short-term earthquake prediction. We investigate generic patterns of foreshock activity using aggregated data and by studying not only strong but also moderate magnitude events. Aggregating empirical local seismicity time series prior to larger events observed in and around Greece reveals a statistically significant increasing rate of seismicity over 20 days prior to M>3.5 earthquakes. This increase cannot be explained by tempo-spatial clustering models such as ETAS, implying genuine changes in the mechanical situation just prior to larger events and thus the possible existence of useful precursory information. Because of tempo-spatial clustering, including aftershocks to foreshocks, even if such generic behavior exists it does not necessarily follow that foreshocks have the potential to provide useful precursory information for individual larger events. Using synthetic catalogs produced based on different clustering models and different presumed system sensitivities we are now investigating to what extent the apparently established generic foreshock rate acceleration may or may not imply that the foreshocks have potential in the context of routine forecasting of larger events. Preliminary results suggest that this is the case, but that it is likely that physically-based models of foreshock clustering will be a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, basis for successful forecasting.

Quasi-Likelihood Techniques in a Logistic Regression Equation for Identifying Simulium damnosum s.l. Larval Habitats Intra-cluster Covariates in Togo.

PubMed

Jacob, Benjamin G; Novak, Robert J; Toe, Laurent; Sanfo, Moussa S; Afriyie, Abena N; Ibrahim, Mohammed A; Griffith, Daniel A; Unnasch, Thomas R

2012-01-01

The standard methods for regression analyses of clustered riverine larval habitat data of Simulium damnosum s.l. a major black-fly vector of Onchoceriasis, postulate models relating observational ecological-sampled parameter estimators to prolific habitats without accounting for residual intra-cluster error correlation effects. Generally, this correlation comes from two sources: (1) the design of the random effects and their assumed covariance from the multiple levels within the regression model; and, (2) the correlation structure of the residuals. Unfortunately, inconspicuous errors in residual intra-cluster correlation estimates can overstate precision in forecasted S.damnosum s.l. riverine larval habitat explanatory attributes regardless how they are treated (e.g., independent, autoregressive, Toeplitz, etc). In this research, the geographical locations for multiple riverine-based S. damnosum s.l. larval ecosystem habitats sampled from 2 pre-established epidemiological sites in Togo were identified and recorded from July 2009 to June 2010. Initially the data was aggregated into proc genmod. An agglomerative hierarchical residual cluster-based analysis was then performed. The sampled clustered study site data was then analyzed for statistical correlations using Monthly Biting Rates (MBR). Euclidean distance measurements and terrain-related geomorphological statistics were then generated in ArcGIS. A digital overlay was then performed also in ArcGIS using the georeferenced ground coordinates of high and low density clusters stratified by Annual Biting Rates (ABR). This data was overlain onto multitemporal sub-meter pixel resolution satellite data (i.e., QuickBird 0.61m wavbands ). Orthogonal spatial filter eigenvectors were then generated in SAS/GIS. Univariate and non-linear regression-based models (i.e., Logistic, Poisson and Negative Binomial) were also employed to determine probability distributions and to identify statistically significant parameter estimators from the sampled data. Thereafter, Durbin-Watson test statistics were used to test the null hypothesis that the regression residuals were not autocorrelated against the alternative that the residuals followed an autoregressive process in AUTOREG. Bayesian uncertainty matrices were also constructed employing normal priors for each of the sampled estimators in PROC MCMC. The residuals revealed both spatially structured and unstructured error effects in the high and low ABR-stratified clusters. The analyses also revealed that the estimators, levels of turbidity and presence of rocks were statistically significant for the high-ABR-stratified clusters, while the estimators distance between habitats and floating vegetation were important for the low-ABR-stratified cluster. Varying and constant coefficient regression models, ABR- stratified GIS-generated clusters, sub-meter resolution satellite imagery, a robust residual intra-cluster diagnostic test, MBR-based histograms, eigendecomposition spatial filter algorithms and Bayesian matrices can enable accurate autoregressive estimation of latent uncertainity affects and other residual error probabilities (i.e., heteroskedasticity) for testing correlations between georeferenced S. damnosum s.l. riverine larval habitat estimators. The asymptotic distribution of the resulting residual adjusted intra-cluster predictor error autocovariate coefficients can thereafter be established while estimates of the asymptotic variance can lead to the construction of approximate confidence intervals for accurately targeting productive S. damnosum s.l habitats based on spatiotemporal field-sampled count data.

A reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model as a software sensor for rapid estimation of five-day biochemical oxygen demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noori, Roohollah; Safavi, Salman; Nateghi Shahrokni, Seyyed Afshin

2013-07-01

The five-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) is one of the key parameters in water quality management. In this study, a novel approach, i.e., reduced-order adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ROANFIS) model was developed for rapid estimation of BOD5. In addition, an uncertainty analysis of adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and ROANFIS models was carried out based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Accuracy analysis of ANFIS and ROANFIS models based on both developed discrepancy ratio and threshold statistics revealed that the selected ROANFIS model was superior. Pearson correlation coefficient (R) and root mean square error for the best fitted ROANFIS model were 0.96 and 7.12, respectively. Furthermore, uncertainty analysis of the developed models indicated that the selected ROANFIS had less uncertainty than the ANFIS model and accurately forecasted BOD5 in the Sefidrood River Basin. Besides, the uncertainty analysis also showed that bracketed predictions by 95% confidence bound and d-factor in the testing steps for the selected ROANFIS model were 94% and 0.83, respectively.

Multiscale study for stochastic characterization of shale samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tahmasebi, Pejman; Javadpour, Farzam; Sahimi, Muhammad; Piri, Mohammad

2016-03-01

Characterization of shale reservoirs, which are typically of low permeability, is very difficult because of the presence of multiscale structures. While three-dimensional (3D) imaging can be an ultimate solution for revealing important complexities of such reservoirs, acquiring such images is costly and time consuming. On the other hand, high-quality 2D images, which are widely available, also reveal useful information about shales' pore connectivity and size. Most of the current modeling methods that are based on 2D images use limited and insufficient extracted information. One remedy to the shortcoming is direct use of qualitative images, a concept that we introduce in this paper. We demonstrate that higher-order statistics (as opposed to the traditional two-point statistics, such as variograms) are necessary for developing an accurate model of shales, and describe an efficient method for using 2D images that is capable of utilizing qualitative and physical information within an image and generating stochastic realizations of shales. We then further refine the model by describing and utilizing several techniques, including an iterative framework, for removing some possible artifacts and better pattern reproduction. Next, we introduce a new histogram-matching algorithm that accounts for concealed nanostructures in shale samples. We also present two new multiresolution and multiscale approaches for dealing with distinct pore structures that are common in shale reservoirs. In the multiresolution method, the original high-quality image is upscaled in a pyramid-like manner in order to achieve more accurate global and long-range structures. The multiscale approach integrates two images, each containing diverse pore networks - the nano- and microscale pores - using a high-resolution image representing small-scale pores and, at the same time, reconstructing large pores using a low-quality image. Eventually, the results are integrated to generate a 3D model. The methods are tested on two shale samples for which full 3D samples are available. The quantitative accuracy of the models is demonstrated by computing their morphological and flow properties and comparing them with those of the actual 3D images. The success of the method hinges upon the use of very different low- and high-resolution images.

Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, D.; Majda, A.

2017-12-01

A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with distinct statistical structures.

Modelling benthic macrofauna and seagrass distribution patterns in a North Sea tidal basin in response to 2050 climatic and environmental scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, Anja; Millat, Gerald; Staneva, Joanna; Kröncke, Ingrid

2017-03-01

Small-scale spatial distribution patterns of seven macrofauna species, seagrass beds and mixed mussel/oyster reefs were modelled for the Jade Bay (North Sea, Germany) in response to climatic and environmental scenarios (representing 2050). For the species distribution models four presence-absence modelling methods were merged within the ensemble forecasting platform 'biomod2'. The present spatial distribution (representing 2009) was modelled by statistically related species presences, true species absences and six high-resolution environmental grids. The future spatial distribution was then predicted in response to expected climate change-induced ongoing (1) sea-level rise and (2) water temperature increase. Between 2009 and 2050, the present and future prediction maps revealed a significant range gain for two macrofauna species (Macoma balthica, Tubificoides benedii), whereas the species' range sizes of five macrofauna species remained relatively stable across space and time. The predicted probability of occurrence (PO) of two macrofauna species (Cerastoderma edule, Scoloplos armiger) decreased significantly under the potential future habitat conditions. In addition, a clear seagrass bed extension (Zostera noltii) on the lower intertidal flats (mixed sediments) and a decrease in the PO of mixed Mytilus edulis/Crassostrea gigas reefs was predicted for 2050. Until the mid-21st century, our future climatic and environmental scenario revealed significant changes in the range sizes (gains-losses) and/or the PO (increases-decreases) for seven of the 10 modelled species at the study site.

Exploiting Data Missingness in Bayesian Network Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues de Morais, Sérgio; Aussem, Alex

This paper proposes a framework built on the use of Bayesian networks (BN) for representing statistical dependencies between the existing random variables and additional dummy boolean variables, which represent the presence/absence of the respective random variable value. We show how augmenting the BN with these additional variables helps pinpoint the mechanism through which missing data contributes to the classification task. The missing data mechanism is thus explicitly taken into account to predict the class variable using the data at hand. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world incomplete data sets reveals that the missingness information improves classification accuracy.

Indications for a transparent universe at very high energies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Manuel; Horns, Dieter

2012-03-01

The transparency of the universe for very high energy (VHE) photons is limited due to pair-production with low energy photons of the extra galactic background light (EBL) in the optical to infrared band. Here, we use 56 energy spectra from VHE emitting active galactic nuclei (AGN) from redshift 0.004 to 0.536 to search for signatures of deviations from the minimum expected opacity. A statistical study of the individual measurements reveals indications for an overcorrection of AGN spectra with current EBL models. Axion like particles are discussed as a possible explanation of the result.

Prediction of Muscle Performance During Dynamic Repetitive Exercise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byerly, D. L.; Byerly, K. A.; Sognier, M. A.; Squires, W. G.

2002-01-01

A method for predicting human muscle performance was developed. Eight test subjects performed a repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Electromyography (EMG) data was collected from the erector spinae. Evaluation of the EMG data using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis revealed that an AR parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, can predict performance to failure as early as the second repetition of the exercise. Potential applications to the space program include evaluating on-orbit countermeasure effectiveness, maximizing post-flight recovery, and future real-time monitoring capability during Extravehicular Activity.

Prospective associations between peer victimization and aggression.

PubMed

Ostrov, Jamie M

2010-01-01

The current study involved a short-term longitudinal study of young children (M = 44.56 months, SD = 11.88, N = 103) to test the prospective associations between peer victimization and aggression subtypes. Path analyses documented that teacher-reported physical victimization was uniquely associated with increases in observed physical aggression over time. The path model also revealed that teacher-reported relational victimization was uniquely associated with statistically significant increases in observed relational aggression over time. Ways in which these findings extend the extant developmental literature are discussed. © 2010 The Author. Child Development © 2010 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Auditory Power-Law Activation Avalanches Exhibit a Fundamental Computational Ground State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stoop, Ruedi; Gomez, Florian

2016-07-01

The cochlea provides a biological information-processing paradigm that we are only beginning to understand in its full complexity. Our work reveals an interacting network of strongly nonlinear dynamical nodes, on which even a simple sound input triggers subnetworks of activated elements that follow power-law size statistics ("avalanches"). From dynamical systems theory, power-law size distributions relate to a fundamental ground state of biological information processing. Learning destroys these power laws. These results strongly modify the models of mammalian sound processing and provide a novel methodological perspective for understanding how the brain processes information.

Accuracy evaluation of an ASTER-Derived Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) Version 1 and Version 2 for two sites in western Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Trimble, Sarah M.

2012-01-01

This study compares the ASTER Global DEM version 1 (GDEMv1) and version 2 (GDEMv2) for two study sites with distinct terrain and land cover characteristics in western Africa. The effects of land cover, slope, relief, and stack number are evaluated through both absolute and relative DEM statistical comparisons. While GDEMv2 at times performed better than GDEMv1, this improvement was not consistent, revealing the complex nature and interaction of terrain and land cover characteristics, which influences the accuracy of GDEM tiles on local and regional scales.

Explaining patterns in the ratification of global environmental treaties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, David W.

1991-01-01

A study was made of the ratification behavior of 160 countries with respect to 38 global environmental treaties. The study identifies and explains patterns in the ratification of treaties, providing two means of assessing the likelihood that any given country will support global environmental treaties. National ratification totals reveal a pattern of high ratification by countries in Western Europe, North America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. A country's standing within the range of high to low ratification rates can be explained by the statistical model developed in the study. This research allows one to identify countries likely to support global environmental treaties.

Neural Systems with Numerically Matched Input-Output Statistic: Isotonic Bivariate Statistical Modeling

PubMed Central

Fiori, Simone

2007-01-01

Bivariate statistical modeling from incomplete data is a useful statistical tool that allows to discover the model underlying two data sets when the data in the two sets do not correspond in size nor in ordering. Such situation may occur when the sizes of the two data sets do not match (i.e., there are “holes” in the data) or when the data sets have been acquired independently. Also, statistical modeling is useful when the amount of available data is enough to show relevant statistical features of the phenomenon underlying the data. We propose to tackle the problem of statistical modeling via a neural (nonlinear) system that is able to match its input-output statistic to the statistic of the available data sets. A key point of the new implementation proposed here is that it is based on look-up-table (LUT) neural systems, which guarantee a computationally advantageous way of implementing neural systems. A number of numerical experiments, performed on both synthetic and real-world data sets, illustrate the features of the proposed modeling procedure. PMID:18566641

Dynamic modeling of reversible methanolysis of Jatropha curcas oil to biodiesel.

PubMed

Syam, Azhari M; Hamid, Hamidah A; Yunus, Robiah; Rashid, Umer

2013-01-01

Many kinetics studies on methanolysis assumed the reactions to be irreversible. The aim of the present work was to study the dynamic modeling of reversible methanolysis of Jatropha curcas oil (JCO) to biodiesel. The experimental data were collected under the optimal reaction conditions: molar ratio of methanol to JCO at 6 : 1, reaction temperature of 60°C, 60 min of reaction time, and 1% w/w of catalyst concentration. The dynamic modeling involved the derivation of differential equations for rates of three stepwise reactions. The simulation study was then performed on the resulting equations using MATLAB. The newly developed reversible models were fitted with various rate constants and compared with the experimental data for fitting purposes. In addition, analysis of variance was done statistically to evaluate the adequacy and quality of model parameters. The kinetics study revealed that the reverse reactions were significantly slower than forward reactions. The activation energies ranged from 6.5 to 44.4 KJ mol⁻¹.

Dynamic Modeling of Reversible Methanolysis of Jatropha curcas Oil to Biodiesel

PubMed Central

Syam, Azhari M.; Hamid, Hamidah A.; Yunus, Robiah; Rashid, Umer

2013-01-01

Many kinetics studies on methanolysis assumed the reactions to be irreversible. The aim of the present work was to study the dynamic modeling of reversible methanolysis of Jatropha curcas oil (JCO) to biodiesel. The experimental data were collected under the optimal reaction conditions: molar ratio of methanol to JCO at 6 : 1, reaction temperature of 60°C, 60 min of reaction time, and 1% w/w of catalyst concentration. The dynamic modeling involved the derivation of differential equations for rates of three stepwise reactions. The simulation study was then performed on the resulting equations using MATLAB. The newly developed reversible models were fitted with various rate constants and compared with the experimental data for fitting purposes. In addition, analysis of variance was done statistically to evaluate the adequacy and quality of model parameters. The kinetics study revealed that the reverse reactions were significantly slower than forward reactions. The activation energies ranged from 6.5 to 44.4 KJ mol−1. PMID:24363616

Discrete dynamical system modelling for gene regulatory networks of 5-hydroxymethylfurfural tolerance for ethanologenic yeast.

PubMed

Song, M; Ouyang, Z; Liu, Z L

2009-05-01

Composed of linear difference equations, a discrete dynamical system (DDS) model was designed to reconstruct transcriptional regulations in gene regulatory networks (GRNs) for ethanologenic yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae in response to 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF), a bioethanol conversion inhibitor. The modelling aims at identification of a system of linear difference equations to represent temporal interactions among significantly expressed genes. Power stability is imposed on a system model under the normal condition in the absence of the inhibitor. Non-uniform sampling, typical in a time-course experimental design, is addressed by a log-time domain interpolation. A statistically significant DDS model of the yeast GRN derived from time-course gene expression measurements by exposure to HMF, revealed several verified transcriptional regulation events. These events implicate Yap1 and Pdr3, transcription factors consistently known for their regulatory roles by other studies or postulated by independent sequence motif analysis, suggesting their involvement in yeast tolerance and detoxification of the inhibitor.

Analysis of data collected from right and left limbs: Accounting for dependence and improving statistical efficiency in musculoskeletal research.

PubMed

Stewart, Sarah; Pearson, Janet; Rome, Keith; Dalbeth, Nicola; Vandal, Alain C

2018-01-01

Statistical techniques currently used in musculoskeletal research often inefficiently account for paired-limb measurements or the relationship between measurements taken from multiple regions within limbs. This study compared three commonly used analysis methods with a mixed-models approach that appropriately accounted for the association between limbs, regions, and trials and that utilised all information available from repeated trials. Four analysis were applied to an existing data set containing plantar pressure data, which was collected for seven masked regions on right and left feet, over three trials, across three participant groups. Methods 1-3 averaged data over trials and analysed right foot data (Method 1), data from a randomly selected foot (Method 2), and averaged right and left foot data (Method 3). Method 4 used all available data in a mixed-effects regression that accounted for repeated measures taken for each foot, foot region and trial. Confidence interval widths for the mean differences between groups for each foot region were used as a criterion for comparison of statistical efficiency. Mean differences in pressure between groups were similar across methods for each foot region, while the confidence interval widths were consistently smaller for Method 4. Method 4 also revealed significant between-group differences that were not detected by Methods 1-3. A mixed effects linear model approach generates improved efficiency and power by producing more precise estimates compared to alternative approaches that discard information in the process of accounting for paired-limb measurements. This approach is recommended in generating more clinically sound and statistically efficient research outputs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of Early and Late Visual Deprivation on the Structure of the Corpus Callosum: A Study Combining Thickness Profile with Surface Tensor-Based Morphometry.

PubMed

Shi, Jie; Collignon, Olivier; Xu, Liang; Wang, Gang; Kang, Yue; Leporé, Franco; Lao, Yi; Joshi, Anand A; Leporé, Natasha; Wang, Yalin

2015-07-01

Blindness represents a unique model to study how visual experience may shape the development of brain organization. Exploring how the structure of the corpus callosum (CC) reorganizes ensuing visual deprivation is of particular interest due to its important functional implication in vision (e.g., via the splenium of the CC). Moreover, comparing early versus late visually deprived individuals has the potential to unravel the existence of a sensitive period for reshaping the CC structure. Here, we develop a novel framework to capture a complete set of shape differences in the CC between congenitally blind (CB), late blind (LB) and sighted control (SC) groups. The CCs were manually segmented from T1-weighted brain MRI and modeled by 3D tetrahedral meshes. We statistically compared the combination of local area and thickness at each point between subject groups. Differences in area are found using surface tensor-based morphometry; thickness is estimated by tracing the streamlines in the volumetric harmonic field. Group differences were assessed on this combined measure using Hotelling's T(2) test. Interestingly, we observed that the total callosal volume did not differ between the groups. However, our fine-grained analysis reveals significant differences mostly localized around the splenium areas between both blind groups and the sighted group (general effects of blindness) and, importantly, specific dissimilarities between the LB and CB groups, illustrating the existence of a sensitive period for reorganization. The new multivariate statistics also gave better effect sizes for detecting morphometric differences, relative to other statistics. They may boost statistical power for CC morphometric analyses.

IMPACT OF EARLY AND LATE VISUAL DEPRIVATION ON THE STRUCTURE OF THE CORPUS CALLOSUM: A STUDY COMBINING THICKNESS PROFILE WITH SURFACE TENSOR-BASED MORPHOMETRY

PubMed Central

Shi, Jie; Collignon, Olivier; Xu, Liang; Wang, Gang; Kang, Yue; Leporé, Franco; Lao, Yi; Joshi, Anand A.

2015-01-01

Blindness represents a unique model to study how visual experience may shape the development of brain organization. Exploring how the structure of the corpus callosum (CC) reorganizes ensuing visual deprivation is of particular interest due to its important functional implication in vision (e.g. via the splenium of the CC). Moreover, comparing early versus late visually deprived individuals has the potential to unravel the existence of a sensitive period for reshaping the CC structure. Here, we develop a novel framework to capture a complete set of shape differences in the CC between congenitally blind (CB), late blind (LB) and sighted control (SC) groups. The CCs were manually segmented from T1-weighted brain MRI and modeled by 3D tetrahedral meshes. We statistically compared the combination of local area and thickness at each point between subject groups. Differences in area are found using surface tensor-based morphometry; thickness is estimated by tracing the streamlines in the volumetric harmonic field. Group differences were assessed on this combined measure using Hotelling’s T2 test. Interestingly, we observed that the total callosal volume did not differ between the groups. However, our fine-grained analysis reveals significant differences mostly localized around the splenium areas between both blind groups and the sighted group (general effects of blindness) and, importantly, specific dissimilarities between the LB and CB groups, illustrating the existence of a sensitive period for reorganization. The new multivariate statistics also gave better effect sizes for detecting morphometric differences, relative to other statistics. They may boost statistical power for CC morphometric analyses. PMID:25649876

High resolution tempo-spatial ozone prediction with SVM and LSTM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, D.; Zhang, Y.; Qu, Z.; Sadighi, K.; Coffey, E.; LIU, Q.; Hannigan, M.; Henze, D. K.; Dick, R.; Shang, L.; Lv, Q.

2017-12-01

To investigate and predict the exposure of ozone and other pollutants in urban areas, we utilize data from various infrastructures including EPA, NOAA and RIITS from government of Los Angeles and construct statistical models to conduct ozone concentration prediction in Los Angeles areas at finer spatial and temporal granularity. Our work involves cyber data such as traffic, roads and population data as features for prediction. Two statistical models, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Long Short-term Memory (LSTM, deep learning method) are used for prediction. . Our experiments show that kernelized SVM gains better prediction performance when taking traffic counts, road density and population density as features, with a prediction RMSE of 7.99 ppb for all-time ozone and 6.92 ppb for peak-value ozone. With simulated NOx from Chemical Transport Model(CTM) as features, SVM generates even better prediction performance, with a prediction RMSE of 6.69ppb. We also build LSTM, which has shown great advantages at dealing with temporal sequences, to predict ozone concentration by treating ozone concentration as spatial-temporal sequences. Trained by ozone concentration measurements from the 13 EPA stations in LA area, the model achieves 4.45 ppb RMSE. Besides, we build a variant of this model which adds spatial dynamics into the model in the form of transition matrix that reveals new knowledge on pollutant transition. The forgetting gate of the trained LSTM is consistent with the delay effect of ozone concentration and the trained transition matrix shows spatial consistency with the common direction of winds in LA area.

Extraction of business relationships in supply networks using statistical learning theory.

PubMed

Zuo, Yi; Kajikawa, Yuya; Mori, Junichiro

2016-06-01

Supply chain management represents one of the most important scientific streams of operations research. The supply of energy, materials, products, and services involves millions of transactions conducted among national and local business enterprises. To deliver efficient and effective support for supply chain design and management, structural analyses and predictive models of customer-supplier relationships are expected to clarify current enterprise business conditions and to help enterprises identify innovative business partners for future success. This article presents the outcomes of a recent structural investigation concerning a supply network in the central area of Japan. We investigated the effectiveness of statistical learning theory to express the individual differences of a supply chain of enterprises within a certain business community using social network analysis. In the experiments, we employ support vector machine to train a customer-supplier relationship model on one of the main communities extracted from a supply network in the central area of Japan. The prediction results reveal an F-value of approximately 70% when the model is built by using network-based features, and an F-value of approximately 77% when the model is built by using attribute-based features. When we build the model based on both, F-values are improved to approximately 82%. The results of this research can help to dispel the implicit design space concerning customer-supplier relationships, which can be explored and refined from detailed topological information provided by network structures rather than from traditional and attribute-related enterprise profiles. We also investigate and discuss differences in the predictive accuracy of the model for different sizes of enterprises and types of business communities.

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Advised by Marsh, Stuart E.

2002-01-01

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat. By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data, effective models of habitat preference were created.Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition.Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data. Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population.Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat. Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations.The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Physics-based statistical model and simulation method of RF propagation in urban environments

DOEpatents

Pao, Hsueh-Yuan; Dvorak, Steven L.

2010-09-14

A physics-based statistical model and simulation/modeling method and system of electromagnetic wave propagation (wireless communication) in urban environments. In particular, the model is a computationally efficient close-formed parametric model of RF propagation in an urban environment which is extracted from a physics-based statistical wireless channel simulation method and system. The simulation divides the complex urban environment into a network of interconnected urban canyon waveguides which can be analyzed individually; calculates spectral coefficients of modal fields in the waveguides excited by the propagation using a database of statistical impedance boundary conditions which incorporates the complexity of building walls in the propagation model; determines statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields; and determines a parametric propagation model based on the statistical parameters of the calculated modal fields from which predictions of communications capability may be made.

Secure and scalable deduplication of horizontally partitioned health data for privacy-preserving distributed statistical computation.

PubMed

Yigzaw, Kassaye Yitbarek; Michalas, Antonis; Bellika, Johan Gustav

2017-01-03

Techniques have been developed to compute statistics on distributed datasets without revealing private information except the statistical results. However, duplicate records in a distributed dataset may lead to incorrect statistical results. Therefore, to increase the accuracy of the statistical analysis of a distributed dataset, secure deduplication is an important preprocessing step. We designed a secure protocol for the deduplication of horizontally partitioned datasets with deterministic record linkage algorithms. We provided a formal security analysis of the protocol in the presence of semi-honest adversaries. The protocol was implemented and deployed across three microbiology laboratories located in Norway, and we ran experiments on the datasets in which the number of records for each laboratory varied. Experiments were also performed on simulated microbiology datasets and data custodians connected through a local area network. The security analysis demonstrated that the protocol protects the privacy of individuals and data custodians under a semi-honest adversarial model. More precisely, the protocol remains secure with the collusion of up to N - 2 corrupt data custodians. The total runtime for the protocol scales linearly with the addition of data custodians and records. One million simulated records distributed across 20 data custodians were deduplicated within 45 s. The experimental results showed that the protocol is more efficient and scalable than previous protocols for the same problem. The proposed deduplication protocol is efficient and scalable for practical uses while protecting the privacy of patients and data custodians.

Quasi-Monochromatic Visual Environments and the Resting Point of Accommodation

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-01-01

accommodation. No statistically significant differences were revealed to support the possibility of color mediated differential regression to resting...discussed with respect to the general findings of the total sample as well as the specific behavior of individual participants. The summarized statistics ...remaining ten varied considerably with respect to the averaged trends reported in the above descriptive statistics as well as with respect to precision

The absorption and first-pass metabolism of [14C]-1,3-dinitrobenzene in the isolated vascularly perfused rat small intestine.

PubMed

Adams, P C; Rickert, D E

1996-11-01

We tested the hypothesis that the small intestine is capable of the first-pass, reductive metabolism of xenobiotics. A simplified version of the isolated vascularly perfused rat small intestine was developed to test this hypothesis with 1,3-dinitrobenzene (1,3-DNB) as a model xenobiotic. Both 3-nitroaniline (3-NA) and 3-nitroacetanilide (3-NAA) were formed and absorbed following intralumenal doses of 1,3-DNB (1.8 or 4.2 mumol) to isolated vascularly perfused rat small intestine. Dose, fasting, or antibiotic pretreatment had no effect on the absorption and metabolism of 1,3-DNB in this model system. The failure of antibiotic pretreatment to alter the metabolism of 1,3-DNA indicated that 1,3-DNB metabolism was mammalian rather than microfloral in origin. All data from experiments initiated with lumenal 1,3-DNB were fit to a pharmacokinetic model (model A). ANOVA analysis revealed that dose, fasting, or antibiotic pretreatment had no statistically significant effect on the model-dependent parameters. 3-NA (1.5 mumol) was administered to the lumen of isolated vascularly perfused rat small intestine to evaluate model A predictions for the absorption and metabolism of this metabolite. All data from experiments initiated with 3-NA were fit to a pharmacokinetic model (model B). Comparison of corresponding model-dependent pharmacokinetic parameters (i.e. those parameters which describe the same processes in models A and B) revealed quantitative differences. Evidence for significant quantitative differences in the pharmacokinetics or metabolism of formed versus preformed 3-NA in rat small intestine may require better definition of the rate constants used to describe tissue and lumenal processes or identification and incorporation of the remaining unidentified metabolites into the models.

Quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Alps - an assessment from the Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ament, F.; Weusthoff, T.; Arpagaus, M.; Rotach, M.

2009-04-01

The main aim of the WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project MAP D-PHASE is to demonstrate the performance of today's models to forecast heavy precipitation and flood events in the Alpine region. Therefore an end-to-end, real-time forecasting system was installed and operated during the D PHASE Operations Period from June to November 2007. Part of this system are 30 numerical weather prediction models (deterministic as well as ensemble systems) operated by weather services and research institutes, which issue alerts if predicted precipitation accumulations exceed critical thresholds. Additionally to the real-time alerts, all relevant model fields of these simulations are stored in a central data archive. This comprehensive data set allows a detailed assessment of today's quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance in the Alpine region. We will present results of QPF verifications against Swiss radar and rain gauge data both from a qualitative point of view, in terms of alerts, as well as from a quantitative perspective, in terms of precipitation rate. Various influencing factors like lead time, accumulation time, selection of warning thresholds, or bias corrections will be discussed. Additional to traditional verifications of area average precipitation amounts, the performance of the models to predict the correct precipitation statistics without requiring a point-to-point match will be described by using modern Fuzzy verification techniques. Both analyses reveal significant advantages of deep convection resolving models compared to coarser models with parameterized convection. An intercomparison of the model forecasts themselves reveals a remarkably high variability between different models, and makes it worthwhile to evaluate the potential of a multi-model ensemble. Various multi-model ensemble strategies will be tested by combining D-PHASE models to virtual ensemble systems.

Development of artificial neural network models based on experimental data of response surface methodology to establish the nutritional requirements of digestible lysine, methionine, and threonine in broiler chicks.

PubMed

Mehri, M

2012-12-01

An artificial neural network (ANN) approach was used to develop feed-forward multilayer perceptron models to estimate the nutritional requirements of digestible lysine (dLys), methionine (dMet), and threonine (dThr) in broiler chicks. Sixty data lines representing response of the broiler chicks during 3 to 16 d of age to dietary levels of dLys (0.88-1.32%), dMet (0.42-0.58%), and dThr (0.53-0.87%) were obtained from literature and used to train the networks. The prediction values of ANN were compared with those of response surface methodology to evaluate the fitness of these 2 methods. The models were tested using R(2), mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, and absolute average deviation. The random search algorithm was used to optimize the developed ANN models to estimate the optimal values of dietary dLys, dMet, and dThr. The ANN models were used to assess the relative importance of each dietary input on the bird performance using sensitivity analysis. The statistical evaluations revealed the higher accuracy of ANN to predict the bird performance compared with response surface methodology models. The optimization results showed that the maximum BW gain may be obtained with dietary levels of 1.11, 0.51, and 0.78% of dLys, dMet, and dThr, respectively. Minimum feed conversion ratio may be achieved with dietary levels of 1.13, 0.54, 0.78% of dLys, dMet, and dThr, respectively. The sensitivity analysis on the models indicated that dietary Lys is the most important variable in the growth performance of the broiler chicks, followed by dietary Thr and Met. The results of this research revealed that the experimental data of a response-surface-methodology design could be successfully used to develop the well-designed ANN for pattern recognition of bird growth and optimization of nutritional requirements. The comparison between the 2 methods also showed that the statistical methods may have little effect on the ideal ratios of dMet and dThr to dLys in broiler chicks using multivariate optimization.