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Sample records for statistical multifragmentation regime

  1. The statistical multifragmentation model: Origins and recent advances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donangelo, R.; Souza, S. R.

    2016-07-01

    We review the Statistical Multifragmentation Model (SMM) which considers a generalization of the liquid-drop model for hot nuclei and allows one to calculate thermodynamic quantities characterizing the nuclear ensemble at the disassembly stage. We show how to determine probabilities of definite partitions of finite nuclei and how to determine, through Monte Carlo calculations, observables such as the caloric curve, multiplicity distributions, heat capacity, among others. Some experimental measurements of the caloric curve confirmed the SMM predictions of over 10 years before, leading to a surge in the interest in the model. However, the experimental determination of the fragmentation temperatures relies on the yields of different isotopic species, which were not correctly calculated in the schematic, liquid-drop picture, employed in the SMM. This led to a series of improvements in the SMM, in particular to the more careful choice of nuclear masses and energy densities, specially for the lighter nuclei. With these improvements the SMM is able to make quantitative determinations of isotope production. We show the application of SMM to the production of exotic nuclei through multifragmentation. These preliminary calculations demonstrate the need for a careful choice of the system size and excitation energy to attain maximum yields.

  2. Statistical multifragmentation model with discretized energy and the generalized Fermi breakup: Formulation of the model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souza, S. R.; Carlson, B. V.; Donangelo, R.; Lynch, W. G.; Tsang, M. B.

    2013-07-01

    The generalized Fermi breakup model, recently demonstrated to be formally equivalent to the statistical multifragmentation model, if the contribution of excited states is included in the state densities of the former, is implemented. Because this treatment requires application of the statistical multifragmentation model repeatedly on hot fragments until they have decayed to their ground states, it becomes extremely computationally demanding, making its application to the systems of interest extremely difficult. Based on exact recursion formulas previously developed by Chase and Mekjian to calculate statistical weights very efficiently, we present an implementation which is efficient enough to allow it to be applied to large systems at high excitation energies. Comparison with the gemini++ sequential decay code and the Weisskopf-Ewing evaporation model shows that the predictions obtained with our treatment are fairly similar to those obtained with these more traditional models.

  3. Power law behavior of the isotope yield distributions in the multifragmentation regime of heavy ion reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Wada, R.; Chen, Z.; Keutgen, T.; Kowalski, S.; Hagel, K.; Barbui, M.; Bonasera, A.; Bottosso, C.; Materna, T.; Natowitz, J. B.; Qin, L.; Rodrigues, M. R. D.; Sahu, P. K.; Schmidt, K. J.; Wang, J.

    2010-11-01

    Isotope yield distributions in the multifragmentation regime were studied with high-quality isotope identification, focusing on the intermediate mass fragments (IMFs) produced in semiviolent collisions. The yields were analyzed within the framework of a modified Fisher model. Using the ratio of the mass-dependent symmetry energy coefficient relative to the temperature, asym/T, extracted in previous work and that of the pairing term, ap/T, extracted from this work, and assuming that both reflect secondary decay processes, the experimentally observed isotope yields were corrected for these effects. For a given I=N-Z value, the corrected yields of isotopes relative to the yield of C12 show a power law distribution Y(N,Z)/Y(12C)~A-τ in the mass range 1⩽A⩽30, and the distributions are almost identical for the different reactions studied. The observed power law distributions change systematically when I of the isotopes changes and the extracted τ value decreases from 3.9 to 1.0 as I increases from -1 to 3. These observations are well reproduced by a simple deexcitation model, with which the power law distribution of the primary isotopes is determined to be τprim=2.4±0.2, suggesting that the disassembling system at the time of the fragment formation is indeed at, or very near, the critical point.

  4. Statistical regimes of random laser fluctuations

    SciTech Connect

    Lepri, Stefano; Cavalieri, Stefano; Oppo, Gian-Luca; Wiersma, Diederik S.

    2007-06-15

    Statistical fluctuations of the light emitted from amplifying random media are studied theoretically and numerically. The characteristic scales of the diffusive motion of light lead to Gaussian or power-law (Levy) distributed fluctuations depending on external control parameters. In the Levy regime, the output pulse is highly irregular leading to huge deviations from a mean-field description. Monte Carlo simulations of a simplified model which includes the population of the medium demonstrate the two statistical regimes and provide a comparison with dynamical rate equations. Different statistics of the fluctuations helps to explain recent experimental observations reported in the literature.

  5. Angular distributions in multifragmentation

    SciTech Connect

    Stoenner, R.W.; Klobuchar, R.L.; Haustein, P.E.; Virtes, G.J.; Cumming, J.B.; Loveland, W.

    2006-04-15

    Angular distributions are reported for {sup 37}Ar and {sup 127}Xe from 381-GeV {sup 28}Si+Au interactions and for products between {sup 24}Na and {sup 149}Gd from 28-GeV {sup 1}H+Au. Sideward peaking and forward deficits for multifragmentation products are significantly enhanced for heavy ions compared with protons. Projectile kinetic energy does not appear to be a satisfactory scaling variable. The data are discussed in terms of a kinetic-focusing model in which sideward peaking is due to transverse motion of the excited product from the initial projectile-target interaction.

  6. Statistical instability of barrier microdischarges operating in townsend regime

    SciTech Connect

    Nagorny, V. P.

    2007-01-15

    The dynamics of barrier microdischarges operating in a Townsend regime is studied analytically and via kinetic particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo simulations. It is shown that statistical fluctuations of the number of charged particles in the discharge gap strongly influence the dynamics of natural oscillations of the discharge current and may even lead to a disruption of the discharge. Analysis of the statistical effects based on a simple model is suggested. The role of external sources in stabilizing microdischarges is clarified.

  7. Detector noise statistics in the non-linear regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shopbell, P. L.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.

    1992-01-01

    The statistical behavior of an idealized linear detector in the presence of threshold and saturation levels is examined. It is assumed that the noise is governed by the statistical fluctuations in the number of photons emitted by the source during an exposure. Since physical detectors cannot have infinite dynamic range, our model illustrates that all devices have non-linear regimes, particularly at high count rates. The primary effect is a decrease in the statistical variance about the mean signal due to a portion of the expected noise distribution being removed via clipping. Higher order statistical moments are also examined, in particular, skewness and kurtosis. In principle, the expected distortion in the detector noise characteristics can be calibrated using flatfield observations with count rates matched to the observations. For this purpose, some basic statistical methods that utilize Fourier analysis techniques are described.

  8. Critical temperature for the nuclear liquid-gas phase transition (from multifragmentation and fission)

    SciTech Connect

    Karnaukhov, V. A.; Oeschler, H.; Budzanowski, A.; Avdeyev, S. P.; Botvina, A. S.; Cherepanov, E. A.; Karcz, W.; Kirakosyan, V. V.; Rukoyatkin, P. A.; Skwirczynska, I.; Norbeck, E.

    2008-12-15

    Critical temperature T{sub c} for the nuclear liquid-gas phase transition is estimated from both the multifragmentation and fission data. In the first case, the critical temperature is obtained by analysis of the intermediate-mass-fragment yields in p(8.1 GeV) + Au collisions within the statistical model of multifragmentation. In the second case, the experimental fission probability for excited {sup 188}Os is compared with the calculated one with T{sub c} as a free parameter. It is concluded for both cases that the critical temperature is higher than 15 MeV.

  9. Influence of the coulomb interaction on the liquid-gas phase transition and nuclear multifragmentation.

    PubMed

    Gulminelli, F; Chomaz, Ph; Raduta, Al H; Raduta, Ad R

    2003-11-14

    The liquid-gas phase transition is analyzed from the topologic properties of the event distribution in the observables space. A multicanonical formalism allows one to directly relate the standard phase transition with neutral particles to the case where the nonsaturating Coulomb interaction is present, and to interpret the Coulomb effect as a deformation of the probability distributions and a rotation of the order parameter. This formalism is applied to a statistical multifragmentation model and consequences for the nuclear multifragmentation phase transitions are drawn.

  10. Relevance of equilibrium in multifragmentation

    SciTech Connect

    Furuta, Takuya; Ono, Akira

    2009-01-15

    The relevance of equilibrium in a multifragmentation reaction of very central {sup 40}Ca + {sup 40}Ca collisions at 35 MeV/nucleon is investigated by using simulations of antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD). Two types of ensembles are compared. One is the reaction ensemble of the states at each reaction time t in collision events simulated by AMD, and the other is the equilibrium ensemble prepared by solving the AMD equation of motion for a many-nucleon system confined in a container for a long time. The comparison of the ensembles is performed for the fragment charge distribution and the excitation energies. Our calculations show that there exists an equilibrium ensemble that well reproduces the reaction ensemble at each reaction time t for the investigated period 80{<=}t{<=}300 fm/c. However, there are some other observables that show discrepancies between the reaction and equilibrium ensembles. These may be interpreted as dynamical effects in the reaction. The usual static equilibrium at each instant is not realized since any equilibrium ensemble with the same volume as that of the reaction system cannot reproduce the fragment observables.

  11. New Statistical Learning Methods for Estimating Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Ying-Qi; Zeng, Donglin; Laber, Eric B.; Kosorok, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequential decision rules for individual patients that can adapt over time to an evolving illness. The goal is to accommodate heterogeneity among patients and find the DTR which will produce the best long term outcome if implemented. We introduce two new statistical learning methods for estimating the optimal DTR, termed backward outcome weighted learning (BOWL), and simultaneous outcome weighted learning (SOWL). These approaches convert individualized treatment selection into an either sequential or simultaneous classification problem, and can thus be applied by modifying existing machine learning techniques. The proposed methods are based on directly maximizing over all DTRs a nonparametric estimator of the expected long-term outcome; this is fundamentally different than regression-based methods, for example Q-learning, which indirectly attempt such maximization and rely heavily on the correctness of postulated regression models. We prove that the resulting rules are consistent, and provide finite sample bounds for the errors using the estimated rules. Simulation results suggest the proposed methods produce superior DTRs compared with Q-learning especially in small samples. We illustrate the methods using data from a clinical trial for smoking cessation. PMID:26236062

  12. IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

  13. Multifragmentation: Surface and Coulomb instabilities of sheets, bubbles, and donuts

    SciTech Connect

    Moretto, L.G.; Tso, Kin; Wozniak, G.J.

    1993-08-01

    Disks, bubbles, and donuts have been observed in dynamical calculations of heavy ion collisions. These shapes are subject to a variety of surface and Coulomb instabilities. These instabilities are identified and analyzed in terms of their relevance to multifragmentation.

  14. Multifragmentation and the phase transition: A systematic study of the multifragmentation of 1A GeV Au, La, and Kr

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srivastava, B. K.; Scharenberg, R. P.; Albergo, S.; Bieser, F.; Brady, F. P.; Caccia, Z.; Cebra, D. A.; Chacon, A. D.; Chance, J. L.; Choi, Y.; Costa, S.; Elliott, J. B.; Gilkes, M. L.; Hauger, J. A.; Hirsch, A. S.; Hjort, E. L.; Insolia, A.; Justice, M.; Keane, D.; Kintner, J. C.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lisa, M. A.; Matis, H. S.; McMahan, M.; McParland, C.; Müller, W. F.; Olson, D. L.; Partlan, M. D.; Porile, N. T.; Potenza, R.; Rai, G.; Rasmussen, J.; Ritter, H. G.; Romanski, J.; Romero, J. L.; Russo, G. V.; Sann, H.; Scott, A.; Shao, Y.; Symons, T. J.; Tincknell, M.; Tuvé, C.; Wang, S.; Warren, P.; Wieman, H. H.; Wienold, T.; Wolf, K.

    2002-05-01

    A systematic analysis of multifragmentation (MF) in fully reconstructed events from 1A GeV Au, La, and Kr collisions with C has been performed. These data are used to provide a definitive test of the variable volume version of the statistical multifragmentation model (SMM). A single set of SMM parameters directly determined by the data and the semi-empirical mass formula are used after the adjustable inverse level density parameter ɛ0 is determined by the fragment distributions. The results from SMM for second stage multiplicity, size of the biggest fragment, and the intermediate mass fragments are in excellent agreement with the data. Multifragmentation thresholds have been obtained for all three systems using SMM prior to secondary decay. The data indicate that both thermal excitation energy E*th and the isotope ratio temperature THe-DT decrease with increase in system size at the critical point. The breakup temperature obtained from SMM also shows the same trend as seen in the data. The SMM model is used to study the nature of the MF phase transition. The caloric curve for Kr exhibits back-bending (finite latent heat) while the caloric curves for Au and La are consistent with a continuous phase transition (nearly zero latent heat) and the values of the critical exponents τ, β, and γ, both from data and SMM, are close to those for a ``liquid-gas'' system for Au and La. We conclude that the larger Coulomb expansion energy in Au and La reduces the latent heat required for MF and changes the nature of the phase transition. Thus the Coulomb energy plays a major role in nuclear MF.

  15. Distinct metastable atmospheric regimes despite nearly Gaussian statistics: A paradigm model

    PubMed Central

    Majda, Andrew J.; Franzke, Christian L.; Fischer, Alexander; Crommelin, Daniel T.

    2006-01-01

    A controversial topic in the recent climate modeling literature is the fashion in which metastable low-frequency regimes in the atmosphere occur despite nearly Gaussian statistics for these planetary waves. Here a simple 57-mode paradigm model for such metastable atmospheric regime behavior is introduced and analyzed through hidden Markov model (HMM) analysis of the time series of suitable low-frequency planetary waves. The analysis of this paradigm model elucidates how statistically significant metastable regime transitions between blocked and zonal statistical states occur despite nearly Gaussian behavior in the associated probability distribution function and without a significant role for the low-order truncated nonlinear dynamics alone; turbulent backscatter onto the three-dimensional subspace of low-frequency modes is responsible for these effects. It also is demonstrated that suitable stochastic mode reduction strategies, which include both augmented cubic nonlinearity and multiplicative noise, are also capable of capturing the metastable low-frequency regime behavior through a single stochastic differential equation compared with the full turbulent chaotic 57-mode model. This feature is attractive for issues such as long-term weather predictability. Although there have been many applications of HMM in other sciences, this work presents a previously undescribed application of HMM analysis to atmospheric low-frequency variability and points the way for further applications including their use in extended range predictability. PMID:16714380

  16. A statistical analysis of avalanching heat transport in stationary enhanced core confinement regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Tokunaga, S.; Jhang, Hogun; Kim, S. S.; Diamond, P. H.

    2012-09-15

    We present a statistical analysis of heat transport in stationary enhanced confinement regimes obtained from flux-driven gyrofluid simulations. The probability density functions of heat flux in improved confinement regimes, characterized by the Nusselt number, show significant deviation from Gaussian, with a markedly fat tail, implying the existence of heat avalanches. Two types of avalanching transport are found to be relevant to stationary states, depending on the degree of turbulence suppression. In the weakly suppressed regime, heat avalanches occur in the form of quasi-periodic (QP) heat pulses. Collisional relaxation of zonal flow is likely to be the origin of these QP heat pulses. This phenomenon is similar to transient limit cycle oscillations observed prior to edge pedestal formation in recent experiments. On the other hand, a spectral analysis of heat flux in the strongly suppressed regime shows the emergence of a 1/f (f is the frequency) band, suggesting the presence of self-organized criticality (SOC)-like episodic heat avalanches. This episodic 1/f heat avalanches have a long temporal correlation and constitute the dominant transport process in this regime.

  17. Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

    1985-01-01

    Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

  18. Boundary between the thermal and statistical polarization regimes in a nuclear spin ensemble

    SciTech Connect

    Herzog, B. E.; Cadeddu, D.; Xue, F.; Peddibhotla, P.; Poggio, M.

    2014-07-28

    As the number of spins in an ensemble is reduced, the statistical fluctuations in its polarization eventually exceed the mean thermal polarization. This transition has now been surpassed in a number of recent nuclear magnetic resonance experiments, which achieve nanometer-scale detection volumes. Here, we measure nanometer-scale ensembles of nuclear spins in a KPF{sub 6} sample using magnetic resonance force microscopy. In particular, we investigate the transition between regimes dominated by thermal and statistical nuclear polarization. The ratio between the two types of polarization provides a measure of the number of spins in the detected ensemble.

  19. Sideways-peaked angular distributions in hadron-induced multifragmentation: Shock waves, geometry, or kinematics?

    SciTech Connect

    Hsi, W.; Kwiatkowski, K.; Wang, G.; Bracken, D.S.; Cornell, E.; Ginger, D.S.; Viola, V.E.; Yoder, N.R.; Korteling, R.G.; Gimeno-Nogues, F.; Ramakrishnan, E.; Rowland, D.; Yennello, S.J.; Huang, R.; Lynch, W.G.; Tsang, M.B.; Xi, H.; Breuer, H.; Morley, K.B.; Gushue, S.; Remsberg, L.P.; Friedman, W.A.; Botvina, A.

    1998-07-01

    Exclusive studies of sideways-peaked angular distributions for intermediate-mass fragments (IMFs) produced in hadron-induced reactions have been performed with the Indiana silicon sphere (ISiS) detector array. The effect becomes prominent for beam momenta above about 10thinspGeV/c. Both the magnitude of the effect and the peak angle increase as a function of fragment multiplicity and charge. When gated on IMF kinetic energy, the angular distributions evolve from forward peaked to nearly isotropic as the fragment energy decreases. Fragment-fragment correlation studies show no evidence for a preferred angle that might signal a fast dynamic breakup mechanism. Moving-source and intranuclear cascade simulations suggest a possible kinematic origin arising from significant transverse momentum imparted to the recoil nucleus during the fast cascade. A two-step cascade and statistical multifragmentation calculation is consistent with the data. {copyright} {ital 1998} {ital The American Physical Society}

  20. Statistical analysis of electroconvection near an ion-selective membrane in the highly chaotic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Druzgalski, Clara; Mani, Ali

    2016-11-01

    We investigate electroconvection and its impact on ion transport in a model system comprised of an ion-selective membrane, an aqueous electrolyte, and an external electric field applied normal to the membrane. We develop a direct numerical simulation code to solve the governing Poisson-Nernst-Planck and Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions using a specialized parallel numerical algorithm and sufficient resolution to capture the high frequency and high wavenumber physics. We show a comprehensive statistical analysis of the transport phenomena in the highly chaotic regime. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of two-dimensional (2D) and 3D simulations include prediction of the mean concentration fields as well as the spectra of concentration, charge density, and velocity signals. Our analyses reveal a significant quantitative difference between 2D and 3D electroconvection. Furthermore, we show that high-intensity yet short-lived current density hot spots appear randomly on the membrane surface, contributing significantly to the mean current density. By examining cross correlations between current density on the membrane and other field quantities we explore the physical mechanisms leading to current hot spots. We also present analysis of transport fluxes in the context of ensemble-averaged equations. Our analysis reveals that in the highly chaotic regime the mixing layer (ML), which spans the majority of the domain extent, is governed by advective fluctuations. Furthermore, we show that in the ML the mean electromigration fluxes cancel out for positive and negative ions, indicating that the mean transport of total salt content within the ML can be represented via the electroneutral approximation. Finally, we present an assessment of the importance of different length scales in enhancing transport by computing the cross covariance of concentration and velocity fluctuations in the wavenumber space. Our analysis indicates that in the majority of the domain

  1. Statistics of vacuum breakdown in the high-gradient and low-rate regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuensch, Walter; Degiovanni, Alberto; Calatroni, Sergio; Korsbäck, Anders; Djurabekova, Flyura; Rajamäki, Robin; Giner-Navarro, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    In an increasing number of high-gradient linear accelerator applications, accelerating structures must operate with both high surface electric fields and low breakdown rates. Understanding the statistical properties of breakdown occurrence in such a regime is of practical importance for optimizing accelerator conditioning and operation algorithms, as well as of interest for efforts to understand the physical processes which underlie the breakdown phenomenon. Experimental data of breakdown has been collected in two distinct high-gradient experimental set-ups: A prototype linear accelerating structure operated in the Compact Linear Collider Xbox 12 GHz test stands, and a parallel plate electrode system operated with pulsed DC in the kV range. Collected data is presented, analyzed and compared. The two systems show similar, distinctive, two-part distributions of number of pulses between breakdowns, with each part corresponding to a specific, constant event rate. The correlation between distance and number of pulses between breakdown indicates that the two parts of the distribution, and their corresponding event rates, represent independent primary and induced follow-up breakdowns. The similarity of results from pulsed DC to 12 GHz rf indicates a similar vacuum arc triggering mechanism over the range of conditions covered by the experiments.

  2. Six temperature and precipitation regimes of the contiguous United States between 1895 and 2010: a statistical inference study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Samuel S. P.; Wied, Olaf; Weithmann, Alexander; Regele, Tobias; Bailey, Barbara A.; Lawrimore, Jay H.

    2016-07-01

    This paper describes six different temporal climate regimes of the contiguous United States (CONUS) according to interdecadal variations of surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation using the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) monthly data (Tmax, Tmin, Tmean, and precipitation) from 1895 to 2010. Our analysis is based on the probability distribution, mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, and Welch's t test. The relevant statistical parameters are computed from gridded monthly SAT and precipitation data. SAT variations lead to classification of four regimes: 1895-1930 (cool), 1931-1960 (warm), 1961-1985 (cool), and 1986-2010 (warm), while precipitation variations lead to a classification of two regimes: 1895-1975 (dry) and 1976-2010 (wet). The KS test shows that any two regimes of the above six are statistically significantly different from each other due to clear shifts of the probability density functions. Extremes of SAT and precipitation identify the ten hottest, coldest, driest, and wettest years. Welch's t test is used to discern significant differences among these extremes. The spatial patterns of the six climate regimes and some years of extreme climate are analyzed. Although the recent two decades are the warmest among the other decades since 1895 and many hottest years measured by CONUS Tmin and Tmean are in these two decades, the hottest year according to the CONUS Tmax anomalies is 1934 (1.37 °C), which is very close to the second Tmax hottest year 2006 (1.35 °C).

  3. Statistical dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in southern Vietnam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schubert, David; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim; Fink, Andreas; Massmeyer, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    Southeast Asia has been identified as one of the hot-spots of climate change. While the projected changes in annual precipitation are comparatively small, there is a clear tendency towards more rainfall in the dry season and an increase in extreme precipitation events. In this study, a statistical dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical Southeast Asia with focus on Vietnam. First, a recent climate (RC) simulation with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM with a spatial resolution of ~50 km driven by ERA-Interim (1979-2008) is performed for the tropical region of Southeast Asia. For the SDD, six weather types (WTs) are selected for Vietnam during the wet season (April - October) using a k-means cluster analysis of daily zonal wind component in 850 hPa and 200 hPa from the RC run. For each calculated weather type, simulated representatives are selected from the RC run and are then further dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 0.0625° (7 km). By using historical WT frequencies, the simulated representatives are recombined to a high resolution rainfall climatology for the recent climate. It is shown that the SDD is generally able to capture the present day climatology and that the employment of the higher resolved simulated representatives enhances the performance of the SDD. However, an overestimation of rainfall at higher altitudes is found. To obtain future climate projections, an ensemble of eight CMIP5 model members are selected to study precipitation changes. For these projections, WT frequencies of future scenarios under two representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are taken into account for the mid-term scenario (2046-2065) and the long-term scenario (2081-2100). The strongest precipitation changes are found for the RCP8.5 scenario. Most of the models indicate a generally increase in precipitation amount in the wet period over Southeast

  4. Analysis of multifragmentation in a Boltzmann-Langevin approach

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, F.; Suraud, E.

    1995-06-01

    By using the Boltzmann-Langevin equation, which incorporates dynamical fluctuations beyond usual transport theories, we simulate the {sup 40}Ca+{sup 40}Ca reaction system at different beam energies 20, 60, and 90 MeV/nucleon for different impact parameters. Dynamical fluctuations become larger and larger with increasing bombarding energy and the system can reach densities corresponding to the unstable region of the nuclear matter equation of state at energies above 60 MeV/nucleon. By coupling the Boltzmann-Langevin equation with a coalescence model in the late stages of the reaction, we obtain the distribution of the intermediate mass fragments in each event. From the correlation analysis of these fragments, we recover some trends of recent multifragmentation data. A critical behavior analysis is also provided.

  5. Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2016-02-01

    The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

  6. Light-ion-induced multifragmentation: The ISiS project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viola, V. E.; Kwiatkowski, K.; Beaulieu, L.; Bracken, D. S.; Breuer, H.; Brzychczyk, J.; de Souza, R. T.; Ginger, D. S.; Hsi, W.-C.; Korteling, R. G.; Lefort, T.; Lynch, W. G.; Morley, K. B.; Legrain, R.; Pienkowski, L.; Pollacco, E. C.; Renshaw, E.; Ruangma, A.; Tsang, M. B.; Volant, C.; Wang, G.; Yennello, S. J.; Yoder, N. R.

    2006-11-01

    An extensive study of GeV light-ion-induced multifragmentation and its possible interpretation in terms of a nuclear liquid-gas phase transition has been performed with the Indiana Silicon Sphere (ISiS) 4π detector array. Measurements were performed with 5-15 GeV/ c p, pbar, and π- beams incident on 197Au and 2-5 GeV 3He incident on natAg and 197Au targets. Both the reaction dynamics and the subsequent decay of the heavy residues have been explored. The data provide evidence for a dramatic change in the reaction observables near an excitation energy of E*/A=4-5 MeV/residue nucleon. In this region, fragment multiplicities and energy spectra indicate emission from an expanded/dilute source on a very short time scale (20-50 fm/ c). These properties, along with caloric curve and scaling-law behavior, yield a pattern that is consistent with a nuclear liquid-gas phase transition.

  7. Some Probabilistic and Statistical Properties of the Seismic Regime of Zemmouri (Algeria) Seismoactive Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baddari, Kamel; Bellalem, Fouzi; Baddari, Ibtihel; Makdeche, Said

    2016-10-01

    Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter K sr, Hurst exponents H r and H t. The values of D, γ, K sr, H r, and H t diminished many months before the principal seismic shock ( M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.

  8. Using Poisson statistics to analyze supernova remnant emission in the low counts X-ray regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roper, Quentin Jeffrey

    We utilize a Poisson likelihood in a maximum likelihood statistical analysis to analyze X-ray spectragraphic data. Specifically, we examine four extragalactic supernova remnants (SNR). IKT 5 (SNR 0047-73.5), IKT 25 (SNR 0104-72.3), and DEM S 128 (SNR 0103-72.4) which are designated as Type Ia in the literature due to their spectra and morphology. This is troublesome because of their asymmetry, a trait not usually associated with young Type Ia remnants. We present Chandra X-ray Observatory data on these three remnants, and perform a maximum likelihood analysis on their spectra. We find that the X-ray emission is dominated by interactions with the interstellar medium. In spite of this, we find a significant Fe overabundance in all three remnants. Through examination of radio, optical, and infrared data, we conclude that these three remnants are likely not "classical" Type Ia SNR, but may be examples of so-called "prompt" Type Ia SNR. We detect potential point sources that may be members of the progenitor systems of both DEM S 128 and IKT 5, which could suggest a new subclass of prompt Type Ia SNR, Fe-rich CC remnants. In addition, we examine IKT 18. This remnant is positionally coincident with the X-ray point source HD 5980. Due to an outburst in 1994, in which its brightness changed by 3 magnitudes (corrsponding to an increase in luminosity by a factor of 16) HD 5980 was classified as a luminous blue variable star. We examine this point source and the remnant IKT 18 in the X-ray, and find that its non-thermal photon index has decreased from 2002 to 2013, corresponding to a larger proportion of more energetic X-rays, which is unexpected.

  9. Postcollision multifragmentation in fullerene-surface impact: Microscopic insights via molecular dynamics simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernstein, Victor; Kolodney, Eli

    2016-07-01

    Postcollision multifragmentation which we have recently observed experimentally in C60 - -surface impact is the phenomenon of a delayed multiparticle breakup of a highly collisionally vibrationally excited large molecule/cluster (the precursor species) into several polyatomic fragments, after leaving the surface. In this paper, we show that the molecular dynamics simulations of near-grazing C60 collisions with a gold surface at 300 eV impact energy (very similar to the experimental conditions) successfully reproduce the experimentally observed characteristics of the postcollision multifragmentation process. The calculated mass resolved kinetic energy distributions and the time dependent yield curves of the Cn fragments revealed a precursor mediated, velocity correlated, delayed fragmentation event along the outgoing trajectory, far away from the surface. Most of the large fragments (n ≥ 5) are formed within a time window of 2-20 ps after leaving the surface, corresponding to the vertical distances of 3-30 nm from the surface. Analysis of delay times and actual time duration for multifragmentation reveal that a large part can be described as simultaneous postcollision (delayed) multifragmentation events. The delayed nature of the event seems to be due to an early sequence of structural transformations of the precursor.

  10. AC transport and full-counting statistics of molecular junctions in the weak electron-vibration coupling regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ueda, A.; Utsumi, Y.; Tokura, Y.; Entin-Wohlman, O.; Aharony, A.

    2017-03-01

    The coupling of the charge carriers passing through a molecule bridging two bulky conductors with local vibrational modes of the molecule gives rise to distinct features in the electronic transport properties on one hand and to nonequilibrium features in the vibrations' properties, e.g., their population, on the other. Here we explore theoretically a generic model for a molecular junction biased by an arbitrary dc voltage in the weak-coupling regime. We succinctly summarize parts of our past work related to the signature of the electron-vibration interaction on the full-counting statistics of the current fluctuations (i.e., the cumulant generating-function of the current correlations). In addition, we provide a novel account of the response to an ac field exerted on the junction (on top of the dc bias voltage); in particular, we study the nonequilibrium distribution and the displacement fluctuations of the vibrational modes. Remarkably, we find a behavior pattern that cannot be accounted for by classical forced oscillations. The calculations use the technique of nonequilibrium Green's functions and treat the electron-vibration coupling in perturbation theory, within the random-phase approximation when required.

  11. Nuclear multifragmentation by 700–1500 MeV photons: New data of GRAAL experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Nedorezov, V. G. Lapik, A. M.; Collaboration: GRAAL Collaboration

    2015-12-15

    The cross sections of carbon nucleus photodisintegration into protons and neutrons with high multiplicity for photon energies from 700 to 1500 MeV were measured. The experiment was performed at the tagged photon beam of the GRAAL setup using the wide-aperture detector LAGRANγE. It was shown that multifragmentation up to complete disintegration into separate nucleons is initiated by elementary reactions of meson photoproduction with a subsequent intranuclear cascade.

  12. Comparison of 1A GeV 197Au+C data with thermodynamics: The nature of the phase transition in nuclear multifragmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scharenberg, R. P.; Srivastava, B. K.; Albergo, S.; Bieser, F.; Brady, F. P.; Caccia, Z.; Cebra, D. A.; Chacon, A. D.; Chance, J. L.; Choi, Y.; Costa, S.; Elliott, J. B.; Gilkes, M. L.; Hauger, J. A.; Hirsch, A. S.; Hjort, E. L.; Insolia, A.; Justice, M.; Keane, D.; Kintner, J. C.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lisa, M. A.; Matis, H. S.; McMahan, M.; McParland, C.; Müller, W. F.; Olson, D. L.; Partlan, M. D.; Porile, N. T.; Potenza, R.; Rai, G.; Rasmussen, J.; Ritter, H. G.; Romanski, J.; Romero, J. L.; Russo, G. V.; Sann, H.; Scott, A.; Shao, Y.; Symons, T. J.; Tincknell, M.; Tuvé, C.; Wang, S.; Warren, P.; Wieman, H. H.; Wienold, T.; Wolf, K.

    2001-11-01

    Multifragmentation MF results from 1A GeV Au on C have been compared with the Copenhagen statistical multifragmentation model (SMM). The complete charge, mass, and momentum reconstruction of the Au projectile was used to identify high momentum ejectiles leaving an excited remnant of mass A, charge Z, and excitation energy E* which subsequently multifragments. Measurement of the magnitude and multiplicity (energy) dependence of the initial free volume and the breakup volume determines the variable volume parametrization of SMM. Very good agreement is obtained using SMM with the standard values of the SMM parameters. A large number of observables, including the fragment charge yield distributions, fragment multiplicity distributions, caloric curve, critical exponents, and the critical scaling function are explored in this comparison. The two stage structure of SMM is used to determine the effect of cooling of the primary hot fragments. Average fragment yields with Z>=3 are essentially unaffected when the excitation energy is <=7 MeV/nucleon. SMM studies suggest that the experimental critical exponents are largely unaffected by cooling and event mixing. The nature of the phase transition in SMM is studied as a function of the remnant mass and charge using the microcanonical equation of state. For light remnants A<=100, backbending is observed indicating negative specific heat, while for A>=170 the effective latent heat approaches zero. Thus for heavier systems this transition can be identified as a continuous thermal phase transition where a large nucleus breaks up into a number of smaller nuclei with only a minimal release of constituent nucleons. Z<=2 particles are primarily emitted in the initial collision and after MF in the fragment deexcitation process.

  13. Calibration of a rainfall-runoff model at regional scale by optimising river discharge statistics: Performance analysis for the average/low flow regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lombardi, Laura; Toth, Elena; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto; Brath, Armando

    Traditional procedures for rainfall-runoff model calibration are generally based on the fit of individual values of simulated and observed hydrographs. We use here an alternative option that is carried out by matching, in the optimisation process, a set of streamflow statistics. Such an approach has the significant advantage to enable also a straightforward regional calibration of model parameters, based on the regionalisation of the selected statistics. The minimisation of the set of objective functions is carried out by using the AMALGAM algorithm, leading to the identification of behavioural parameter sets. The procedure is applied to a set of river basins located in central Italy: the basins are treated alternatively as gauged and ungauged and, as a term of comparison, the results obtained with a traditional time-domain calibration are also presented. With respect to previous applications of analogous procedures, we investigate here the identification of the target statistics depending on the purposes of the application, and in particular when the focus is on the reproduction of the low-flows. The results show that a suitable choice of the statistics to be optimised leads to interesting results in real world case studies as far as the reproduction of the different flow regimes is concerned.

  14. Statistics

    Cancer.gov

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  15. A Statistical Test for Identifying the Number of Creep Regimes When Using the Wilshire Equations for Creep Property Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Mark

    2016-12-01

    A new parametric approach, termed the Wilshire equations, offers the realistic potential of being able to accurately lift materials operating at in-service conditions from accelerated test results lasting no more than 5000 hours. The success of this approach can be attributed to a well-defined linear relationship that appears to exist between various creep properties and a log transformation of the normalized stress. However, these linear trends are subject to discontinuities, the number of which appears to differ from material to material. These discontinuities have until now been (1) treated as abrupt in nature and (2) identified by eye from an inspection of simple graphical plots of the data. This article puts forward a statistical test for determining the correct number of discontinuities present within a creep data set and a method for allowing these discontinuities to occur more gradually, so that the methodology is more in line with the accepted view as to how creep mechanisms evolve with changing test conditions. These two developments are fully illustrated using creep data sets on two steel alloys. When these new procedures are applied to these steel alloys, not only do they produce more accurate and realistic looking long-term predictions of the minimum creep rate, but they also lead to different conclusions about the mechanisms determining the rates of creep from those originally put forward by Wilshire.

  16. Nonequilibrium quantum transport coefficients and transient dynamics of full counting statistics in the strong-coupling and non-Markovian regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cerrillo, Javier; Buser, Maximilian; Brandes, Tobias

    2016-12-01

    Nonequilibrium transport properties of quantum systems have recently become experimentally accessible in a number of platforms in so-called full-counting experiments that measure transient and steady-state nonequilibrium transport dynamics. We show that the effect of the measurement back-action can be exploited to establish general relationships between transport coefficients in the transient regime which take the form of fluctuation-dissipation theorems in the steady state. This result becomes most conspicuous in the transient dynamics of open quantum systems under strong-coupling to non-Markovian environments in nonequilibrium settings. In order to explore this regime, a new simulation method based in a hierarchy of equations of motion has been developed. We instantiate our proposal with the study of energetic conductance between two baths connected via a few level system.

  17. A statistical-dynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassou, Christophe; Minvielle, Marie; Terray, Laurent; Périgaud, Claire

    2011-01-01

    The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height and 1,000 hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50 years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our

  18. Generalization of Darcy's law for Bingham fluids in porous media: from flow-field statistics to the flow-rate regimes.

    PubMed

    Chevalier, Thibaud; Talon, Laurent

    2015-02-01

    In this paper, we numerically investigate the statistical properties of the nonflowing areas of Bingham fluid in two-dimensional porous media. First, we demonstrate that the size probability distribution of the unyielded clusters follows a power-law decay with a large size cutoff. This cutoff is shown to diverge following a power law as the imposed pressure drop tends to a critical value. In addition, we observe that the exponents are almost identical for two different types of porous media. Finally, those scaling properties allow us to account for the quadratic relationship between the pressure gradient and velocity.

  19. I. Excluded Volume Effects in Ising Cluster Distributions and Nuclear Multifragmentation II. Multiple-Chance Effects in α-Particle Evaporation

    SciTech Connect

    Breus, Dimitry Eugene

    2005-05-16

    In Part 1, geometric clusters of the Ising model are studied as possible model clusters for nuclear multifragmentation. These clusters may not be considered as non-interacting (ideal gas) due to excluded volume effect which predominantly is the artifact of the cluster's finite size. Interaction significantly complicates the use of clusters in the analysis of thermodynamic systems. Stillinger's theory is used as a basis for the analysis, which within the RFL (Reiss, Frisch, Lebowitz) fluid-of-spheres approximation produces a prediction for cluster concentrations well obeyed by geometric clusters of the Ising model. If thermodynamic condition of phase coexistence is met, these concentrations can be incorporated into a differential equation procedure of moderate complexity to elucidate the liquid-vapor phase diagram of the system with cluster interaction included. The drawback of increased complexity is outweighted by the reward of greater accuracy of the phase diagram, as it is demonstrated by the Ising model. A novel nuclear-cluster analysis procedure is developed by modifying Fisher's model to contain cluster interaction and employing the differential equation procedure to obtain thermodynamic variables. With this procedure applied to geometric clusters, the guidelines are developed to look for excluded volume effect in nuclear multifragmentation. In part 2, an explanation is offered for the recently observed oscillations in the energy spectra of α-particles emitted from hot compound nuclei. Contrary to what was previously expected, the oscillations are assumed to be caused by the multiple-chance nature of α-evaporation. In a semi-empirical fashion this assumption is successfully confirmed by a technique of two-spectra decomposition which treats experimental α-spectra has having contributions from at least two independent emitters. Building upon the success of the multiple-chance explanation of the oscillations, Moretto's single-chance evaporation theory is

  20. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stechmann, Samuel N.; Hottovy, Scott

    2016-06-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes -- open versus closed cells -- fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. With this new conceptual viewpoint, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions.

  1. Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2011-10-01

    SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

  2. Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift.

    PubMed

    Spanbauer, Trisha L; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Nash, Kirsty L; Stone, Jeffery R

    2014-01-01

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of 'abrupt' change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

  3. The study of the phase structure of hadronic matter by searching for the deconfined quark-gluon phase transition using 2 TeV {bar p}-p collisions; and by searching for critical phenomena in an exclusive study of multifragmentation using 1 GeV/nucleon heavy ion collisions. Progress report, January 1--December 31, 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Scharenberg, R.; Hirsch, A.; Tincknell, M.

    1993-09-15

    This report discusses the Fermilab experiment E735 which is dedicated to the search for the quark-gluon plasma from proton-antiproton interactions; multifragmentation using the EOS-TPC; STAR R&D; silicon avalanche diodes as direct time-of-flight detectors; and soft photons at the AGS-E855.

  4. Arctic circulation regimes.

    PubMed

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L

    2015-10-13

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability.

  5. Arctic circulation regimes

    PubMed Central

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  6. Rheological equations in asymptotic regimes of granular flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, C.-L.; Ling, C.-H.

    1998-01-01

    This paper assesses the validity of the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model in light of the established constitutive relations in two asymptotic flow regimes, namely, the macroviscous and grain-inertia regimes. A comprehensive review of the literature on constitutive relations in both regimes reveals that except for some material constants, such as the coefficient of restitution, the normalized shear stress in both regimes varies only with the grain concentration, C. It is found that Krieger-Dougherty's relative viscosity, ??*(C), is sufficiently coherent among the monotonically nondecreasing functions of C used in describing the variation of the shear stress with C in both regimes. It not only accurately represents the C-dependent relative viscosity of a suspension in the macroviscous regime, but also plays a role of the radial distribution function that describes the statistics of particle collisions in the grain-inertia regime. Use of ??*(C) alone, however, cannot link the two regimes. Another parameter, the shear-rate number, N, is needed in modelling the rheology of neutrally buoyant granular flows in transition between the two asymptotic regimes. The GVF model proves compatible with most established relations in both regimes.

  7. Nonequilibrium transient dynamics of photon statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ali, Md. Manirul; Zhang, Wei-Min

    2017-03-01

    We investigate the transient dynamics of photon statistics through two-time correlation functions for optical field coupled to a non-Markovian environment, described by the Fano-type Hamiltonian. We exactly solve the time-evolution of an initially nonclassical state which exhibits photon antibunching. We find that the transient correlations at different times t yield a smooth transition from antibunching to bunching photon statistics in the weak system-environment coupling regime. In the strong-coupling regime, the two-time correlations exhibit oscillations that persists both in the transient process and in the steady-state limit. The oscillatory behavior of photon statistics is a manifestation of strong non-Markovian memory dynamics where the system remains in nonequilibrium from its environment. We also find that the antibunching-to-bunching transition in the weak-coupling regime and the photon statistical oscillations in the strong-coupling regime are strongly influenced by the environment temperature.

  8. Descriptive statistics.

    PubMed

    Shi, Runhua; McLarty, Jerry W

    2009-10-01

    In this article, we introduced basic concepts of statistics, type of distributions, and descriptive statistics. A few examples were also provided. The basic concepts presented herein are only a fraction of the concepts related to descriptive statistics. Also, there are many commonly used distributions not presented herein, such as Poisson distributions for rare events and exponential distributions, F distributions, and logistic distributions. More information can be found in many statistics books and publications.

  9. Statistical Software.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callamaras, Peter

    1983-01-01

    This buyer's guide to seven major types of statistics software packages for microcomputers reviews Edu-Ware Statistics 3.0; Financial Planning; Speed Stat; Statistics with DAISY; Human Systems Dynamics package of Stats Plus, ANOVA II, and REGRESS II; Maxistat; and Moore-Barnes' MBC Test Construction and MBC Correlation. (MBR)

  10. Statistical Diversions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2008-01-01

    As a branch of knowledge, Statistics is ubiquitous and its applications can be found in (almost) every field of human endeavour. In this article, the authors track down the possible source of the link between the "Siren song" and applications of Statistics. Answers to their previous five questions and five new questions on Statistics are presented.

  11. Water use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiskel, P.K.; Vogel, R.M.; Steeves, P.A.; Zarriello, P.J.; DeSimone, L.A.; Ries, Kernell G.

    2007-01-01

    [1] The sustainability of human water use practices is a rapidly growing concern in the United States and around the world. To better characterize direct human interaction with hydrologic systems (stream basins and aquifers), we introduce the concept of the water use regime. Unlike scalar indicators of anthropogenic hydrologic stress in the literature, the water use regime is a two-dimensional, vector indicator that can be depicted on simple x-y plots of normalized human withdrawals (hout) versus normalized human return flows (hin). Four end-member regimes, natural-flow-dominated (undeveloped), human-flow-dominated (churned), withdrawal-dominated (depleted), and return-flow-dominated (surcharged), are defined in relation to limiting values of hout and hin. For illustration, the water use regimes of 19 diverse hydrologic systems are plotted and interpreted. Several of these systems, including the Yellow River Basin, China, and the California Central Valley Aquifer, are shown to approach particular end-member regimes. Spatial and temporal regime variations, both seasonal and long-term, are depicted. Practical issues of data availability and regime uncertainty are addressed in relation to the statistical properties of the ratio estimators hout and hin. The water use regime is shown to be a useful tool for comparative water resources assessment and for describing both historic and alternative future pathways of water resource development at a range of scales. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Seekell, David A; Carpenter, Stephen R; Pace, Michael L

    2011-10-01

    Regime shifts are massive, often irreversible, rearrangements of nonlinear ecological processes that occur when systems pass critical transition points. Ecological regime shifts sometimes have severe consequences for human well-being, including eutrophication in lakes, desertification, and species extinctions. Theoretical and laboratory evidence suggests that statistical anomalies may be detectable leading indicators of regime shifts in ecological time series, making it possible to foresee and potentially avert incipient regime shifts. Conditional heteroscedasticity is persistent variance characteristic of time series with clustered volatility. Here, we analyze conditional heteroscedasticity as a potential leading indicator of regime shifts in ecological time series. We evaluate conditional heteroscedasticity by using ecological models with and without four types of critical transition. On approaching transition points, all time series contain significant conditional heteroscedasticity. This signal is detected hundreds of time steps in advance of the regime shift. Time series without regime shifts do not have significant conditional heteroscedasticity. Because probability values are easily associated with tests for conditional heteroscedasticity, detection of false positives in time series without regime shifts is minimized. This property reduces the need for a reference system to compare with the perturbed system.

  13. Constructing an interdisciplinary flow regime recommendation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    It is generally agreed that river rehabilitation most often relies on restoring a more natural flow regime, but credibly defining the desired regime can be problematic. I combined four distinct methods to develop and refine month-by-month and event-based flow recommendations to protect and partially restore the ecological integrity of the Cache la Poudre River through Fort Collins, Colorado. A statistical hydrologic approach was used to summarize the river's natural flow regime and set provisional monthly flow targets at levels that were historically exceeded 75% of the time. These preliminary monthly targets were supplemented using results from three Poudre-specific disciplinary studies. A substrate maintenance flow model was used to better define the high flows needed to flush accumulated sediment from the river's channel and help sustain the riparian zone in this snowmelt-dominated river. A hydraulic/habitat model and a water temperature model were both used to better define the minimum flows necessary to maintain a thriving cool water fishery. The result is a range of recommended monthly flows and daily flow guidance illustrating the advantage of combining a wide range of available disciplinary information, supplemented by judgment based on ecological principles and a general understanding of river ecosystems, in a highly altered, working river. ?? 2010 American Water Resources Association.

  14. Statistical Diversions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petocz, Peter; Sowey, Eric

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors focus on hypothesis testing--that peculiarly statistical way of deciding things. Statistical methods for testing hypotheses were developed in the 1920s and 1930s by some of the most famous statisticians, in particular Ronald Fisher, Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson, who laid the foundations of almost all modern methods of…

  15. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological ...

  16. Statistics Clinic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Foy, Millennia; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James

    2014-01-01

    Do you have elevated p-values? Is the data analysis process getting you down? Do you experience anxiety when you need to respond to criticism of statistical methods in your manuscript? You may be suffering from Insufficient Statistical Support Syndrome (ISSS). For symptomatic relief of ISSS, come for a free consultation with JSC biostatisticians at our help desk during the poster sessions at the HRP Investigators Workshop. Get answers to common questions about sample size, missing data, multiple testing, when to trust the results of your analyses and more. Side effects may include sudden loss of statistics anxiety, improved interpretation of your data, and increased confidence in your results.

  17. Quick Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... population, or about 25 million Americans, has experienced tinnitus lasting at least five minutes in the past ... by NIDCD Epidemiology and Statistics Program staff: (1) tinnitus prevalence was obtained from the 2008 National Health ...

  18. Regime-Switching Bivariate Dual Change Score Model.

    PubMed

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Grimm, Kevin J; Filteau, Guillaume; Dolan, Conor V; McArdle, John J

    2013-07-01

    Mixture structural equation model with regime switching (MSEM-RS) provides one possible way of representing over-time heterogeneities in dynamic processes by allowing a system to manifest qualitatively or quantitatively distinct change processes conditional on the latent "regime" the system is in at a particular time point. Unlike standard mixture structural equation models such as growth mixture models, MSEM-RS allows individuals to transition between latent classes over time. This class of models, often referred to as regime-switching models in the time series and econometric applications, can be specified as regime-switching mixture structural equation models when the number of repeated measures involved is not large. We illustrate the empirical utility of such models using one special case-a regime-switching bivariate dual change score model in which two growth processes are allowed to manifest regime-dependent coupling relations with one another. The proposed model is illustrated using a set of longitudinal reading and arithmetic performance data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 study (ECLS-K; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2010).

  19. Statistics Revelations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chicot, Katie; Holmes, Hilary

    2012-01-01

    The use, and misuse, of statistics is commonplace, yet in the printed format data representations can be either over simplified, supposedly for impact, or so complex as to lead to boredom, supposedly for completeness and accuracy. In this article the link to the video clip shows how dynamic visual representations can enliven and enhance the…

  20. Regime Changes in California Temperature Trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero, E. C.; Kessomkiat, W.; Mauget, S.

    2008-12-01

    Annual and seasonal temperature trends are analyzed for California using surface data from the US Historical Climate Network and the larger COOP network. While trends in Tmax and Tmin both show warming over the last 50 years, the temporal and spatial structure of these trends is quite different. An analysis using Mann Whitney U statistics reveals that the patterns of warming and cooling from individual stations have a distinct temporal signature that differs between Tmax and Tmin. Significant cooling trends in Tmin are found between 1920-1958, while significant warming only starts after the 1970s. In contrast, Tmax trends show a more variable pattern of warming and cooling between 1920-1980, with California wide warming only occurring after 1980. These results suggest regime changes in California temperature trends that could only occur through large scale forcing. A discussion of the various forcing mechanisms contributing to California trends and their spatial and temporal variability will be presented.

  1. Statistical Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Shahjahan

    Often scientific information on various data generating processes are presented in the from of numerical and categorical data. Except for some very rare occasions, generally such data represent a small part of the population, or selected outcomes of any data generating process. Although, valuable and useful information is lurking in the array of scientific data, generally, they are unavailable to the users. Appropriate statistical methods are essential to reveal the hidden "jewels" in the mess of the row data. Exploratory data analysis methods are used to uncover such valuable characteristics of the observed data. Statistical inference provides techniques to make valid conclusions about the unknown characteristics or parameters of the population from which scientifically drawn sample data are selected. Usually, statistical inference includes estimation of population parameters as well as performing test of hypotheses on the parameters. However, prediction of future responses and determining the prediction distributions are also part of statistical inference. Both Classical or Frequentists and Bayesian approaches are used in statistical inference. The commonly used Classical approach is based on the sample data alone. In contrast, increasingly popular Beyesian approach uses prior distribution on the parameters along with the sample data to make inferences. The non-parametric and robust methods are also being used in situations where commonly used model assumptions are unsupported. In this chapter,we cover the philosophical andmethodological aspects of both the Classical and Bayesian approaches.Moreover, some aspects of predictive inference are also included. In the absence of any evidence to support assumptions regarding the distribution of the underlying population, or if the variable is measured only in ordinal scale, non-parametric methods are used. Robust methods are employed to avoid any significant changes in the results due to deviations from the model

  2. Statistical Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Shahjahan

    Often scientific information on various data generating processes are presented in the from of numerical and categorical data. Except for some very rare occasions, generally such data represent a small part of the population, or selected outcomes of any data generating process. Although, valuable and useful information is lurking in the array of scientific data, generally, they are unavailable to the users. Appropriate statistical methods are essential to reveal the hidden “jewels” in the mess of the row data. Exploratory data analysis methods are used to uncover such valuable characteristics of the observed data. Statistical inference provides techniques to make valid conclusions about the unknown characteristics or parameters of the population from which scientifically drawn sample data are selected. Usually, statistical inference includes estimation of population parameters as well as performing test of hypotheses on the parameters. However, prediction of future responses and determining the prediction distributions are also part of statistical inference. Both Classical or Frequentists and Bayesian approaches are used in statistical inference. The commonly used Classical approach is based on the sample data alone. In contrast, increasingly popular Beyesian approach uses prior distribution on the parameters along with the sample data to make inferences. The non-parametric and robust methods are also being used in situations where commonly used model assumptions are unsupported. In this chapter,we cover the philosophical andmethodological aspects of both the Classical and Bayesian approaches.Moreover, some aspects of predictive inference are also included. In the absence of any evidence to support assumptions regarding the distribution of the underlying population, or if the variable is measured only in ordinal scale, non-parametric methods are used. Robust methods are employed to avoid any significant changes in the results due to deviations from the model

  3. [Descriptive statistics].

    PubMed

    Rendón-Macías, Mario Enrique; Villasís-Keever, Miguel Ángel; Miranda-Novales, María Guadalupe

    2016-01-01

    Descriptive statistics is the branch of statistics that gives recommendations on how to summarize clearly and simply research data in tables, figures, charts, or graphs. Before performing a descriptive analysis it is paramount to summarize its goal or goals, and to identify the measurement scales of the different variables recorded in the study. Tables or charts aim to provide timely information on the results of an investigation. The graphs show trends and can be histograms, pie charts, "box and whiskers" plots, line graphs, or scatter plots. Images serve as examples to reinforce concepts or facts. The choice of a chart, graph, or image must be based on the study objectives. Usually it is not recommended to use more than seven in an article, also depending on its length.

  4. Order Statistics and Nonparametric Statistics.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-26

    Topics investigated include the following: Probability that a fuze will fire; moving order statistics; distribution theory and properties of the...problem posed by an Army Scientist: A fuze will fire when at least n-i (or n-2) of n detonators function within time span t. What is the probability of

  5. Statistical Optics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goodman, Joseph W.

    2000-07-01

    The Wiley Classics Library consists of selected books that have become recognized classics in their respective fields. With these new unabridged and inexpensive editions, Wiley hopes to extend the life of these important works by making them available to future generations of mathematicians and scientists. Currently available in the Series: T. W. Anderson The Statistical Analysis of Time Series T. S. Arthanari & Yadolah Dodge Mathematical Programming in Statistics Emil Artin Geometric Algebra Norman T. J. Bailey The Elements of Stochastic Processes with Applications to the Natural Sciences Robert G. Bartle The Elements of Integration and Lebesgue Measure George E. P. Box & Norman R. Draper Evolutionary Operation: A Statistical Method for Process Improvement George E. P. Box & George C. Tiao Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis R. W. Carter Finite Groups of Lie Type: Conjugacy Classes and Complex Characters R. W. Carter Simple Groups of Lie Type William G. Cochran & Gertrude M. Cox Experimental Designs, Second Edition Richard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume I RIchard Courant Differential and Integral Calculus, Volume II Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume I Richard Courant & D. Hilbert Methods of Mathematical Physics, Volume II D. R. Cox Planning of Experiments Harold S. M. Coxeter Introduction to Geometry, Second Edition Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Representation Theory of Finite Groups and Associative Algebras Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume I Charles W. Curtis & Irving Reiner Methods of Representation Theory with Applications to Finite Groups and Orders, Volume II Cuthbert Daniel Fitting Equations to Data: Computer Analysis of Multifactor Data, Second Edition Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume I Bruno de Finetti Theory of Probability, Volume 2 W. Edwards Deming Sample Design in Business Research

  6. Meteorological regimes for the classification of aerospace air quality predictions for NASA-Kennedy Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stephens, J. B.; Sloan, J. C.

    1976-01-01

    A method is described for developing a statistical air quality assessment for the launch of an aerospace vehicle from the Kennedy Space Center in terms of existing climatological data sets. The procedure can be refined as developing meteorological conditions are identified for use with the NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion (REED) description. Classical climatological regimes for the long range analysis can be narrowed as the synoptic and mesoscale structure is identified. Only broad synoptic regimes are identified at this stage of analysis. As the statistical data matrix is developed, synoptic regimes will be refined in terms of the resulting eigenvectors as applicable to aerospace air quality predictions.

  7. Hall effect in hopping regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avdonin, A.; Skupiński, P.; Grasza, K.

    2016-02-01

    A simple description of the Hall effect in the hopping regime of conductivity in semiconductors is presented. Expressions for the Hall coefficient and Hall mobility are derived by considering averaged equilibrium electron transport in a single triangle of localization sites in a magnetic field. Dependence of the Hall coefficient is analyzed in a wide range of temperature and magnetic field values. Our theoretical result is applied to our experimental data on temperature dependence of Hall effect and Hall mobility in ZnO.

  8. Vegetation management with fire modifies peatland soil thermal regime.

    PubMed

    Brown, Lee E; Palmer, Sheila M; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Holden, Joseph

    2015-05-01

    Vegetation removal with fire can alter the thermal regime of the land surface, leading to significant changes in biogeochemistry (e.g. carbon cycling) and soil hydrology. In the UK, large expanses of carbon-rich upland environments are managed to encourage increased abundance of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) by rotational burning of shrub vegetation. To date, though, there has not been any consideration of whether prescribed vegetation burning on peatlands modifies the thermal regime of the soil mass in the years after fire. In this study thermal regime was monitored across 12 burned peatland soil plots over an 18-month period, with the aim of (i) quantifying thermal dynamics between burned plots of different ages (from <2 to 15 + years post burning), and (ii) developing statistical models to determine the magnitude of thermal change caused by vegetation management. Compared to plots burned 15 + years previously, plots recently burned (<2-4 years) showed higher mean, maximum and range of soil temperatures, and lower minima. Statistical models (generalised least square regression) were developed to predict daily mean and maximum soil temperature in plots burned 15 + years prior to the study. These models were then applied to predict temperatures of plots burned 2, 4 and 7 years previously, with significant deviations from predicted temperatures illustrating the magnitude of burn management effects. Temperatures measured in soil plots burned <2 years previously showed significant statistical disturbances from model predictions, reaching +6.2 °C for daily mean temperatures and +19.6 °C for daily maxima. Soil temperatures in plots burnt 7 years previously were most similar to plots burned 15 + years ago indicating the potential for soil temperatures to recover as vegetation regrows. Our findings that prescribed peatland vegetation burning alters soil thermal regime should provide an impetus for further research to understand the consequences of thermal regime

  9. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  10. Characterization of fire regime in Sardinia (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mastinu, S.; Masala, F.; Sirca, C.; Spano, D.

    2012-12-01

    In the last decades, a number of Authors highlighted the crucial role of forest fires within Mediterranean ecosystems, with impacts both negative and positive on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, forest fires are perceived as one of the main environmental and social problems, and data are showing that the situation is worsening especially within the rural-urban peripheries and the increasing number of very large forest fires. The need for information concerning forest fire regime has been pointed out by several Authors (e.g. Rollins et al., 2002), who also emphasized the importance of understanding the factors (such as weather/climate, socio-economic, and land use) that determine spatial and temporal fire patterns. These would be used not only as a baseline to predict the climate change effect on forest fires, but also as a fire management and mitigation strategy. The main aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the last three decades (1980-2010). For the analyzed period, fire statistics were provided by the Sardinian Forest Service (CFVA - Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale), while weather data for eight weather stations were obtained from the web site www.tutiempo.it. For each station, daily series of precipitation, mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were available. The present study firstly analyzed fire statistics (burned area and number of fires) according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution). Then, fire and weather daily values were averaged to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values, and

  11. Statistical Neurodynamics.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paine, Gregory Harold

    1982-03-01

    The primary objective of the thesis is to explore the dynamical properties of small nerve networks by means of the methods of statistical mechanics. To this end, a general formalism is developed and applied to elementary groupings of model neurons which are driven by either constant (steady state) or nonconstant (nonsteady state) forces. Neuronal models described by a system of coupled, nonlinear, first-order, ordinary differential equations are considered. A linearized form of the neuronal equations is studied in detail. A Lagrange function corresponding to the linear neural network is constructed which, through a Legendre transformation, provides a constant of motion. By invoking the Maximum-Entropy Principle with the single integral of motion as a constraint, a probability distribution function for the network in a steady state can be obtained. The formalism is implemented for some simple networks driven by a constant force; accordingly, the analysis focuses on a study of fluctuations about the steady state. In particular, a network composed of N noninteracting neurons, termed Free Thinkers, is considered in detail, with a view to interpretation and numerical estimation of the Lagrange multiplier corresponding to the constant of motion. As an archetypical example of a net of interacting neurons, the classical neural oscillator, consisting of two mutually inhibitory neurons, is investigated. It is further shown that in the case of a network driven by a nonconstant force, the Maximum-Entropy Principle can be applied to determine a probability distribution functional describing the network in a nonsteady state. The above examples are reconsidered with nonconstant driving forces which produce small deviations from the steady state. Numerical studies are performed on simplified models of two physical systems: the starfish central nervous system and the mammalian olfactory bulb. Discussions are given as to how statistical neurodynamics can be used to gain a better

  12. Deterministic-random separation in nonstationary regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abboud, D.; Antoni, J.; Sieg-Zieba, S.; Eltabach, M.

    2016-02-01

    In rotating machinery vibration analysis, the synchronous average is perhaps the most widely used technique for extracting periodic components. Periodic components are typically related to gear vibrations, misalignments, unbalances, blade rotations, reciprocating forces, etc. Their separation from other random components is essential in vibration-based diagnosis in order to discriminate useful information from masking noise. However, synchronous averaging theoretically requires the machine to operate under stationary regime (i.e. the related vibration signals are cyclostationary) and is otherwise jeopardized by the presence of amplitude and phase modulations. A first object of this paper is to investigate the nature of the nonstationarity induced by the response of a linear time-invariant system subjected to speed varying excitation. For this purpose, the concept of a cyclo-non-stationary signal is introduced, which extends the class of cyclostationary signals to speed-varying regimes. Next, a "generalized synchronous average'' is designed to extract the deterministic part of a cyclo-non-stationary vibration signal-i.e. the analog of the periodic part of a cyclostationary signal. Two estimators of the GSA have been proposed. The first one returns the synchronous average of the signal at predefined discrete operating speeds. A brief statistical study of it is performed, aiming to provide the user with confidence intervals that reflect the "quality" of the estimator according to the SNR and the estimated speed. The second estimator returns a smoothed version of the former by enforcing continuity over the speed axis. It helps to reconstruct the deterministic component by tracking a specific trajectory dictated by the speed profile (assumed to be known a priori).The proposed method is validated first on synthetic signals and then on actual industrial signals. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on envelope-based diagnosis of bearings in variable

  13. Flow regimes during immiscible displacement

    DOE PAGES

    Armstrong, Ryan T.; Mcclure, James; Berrill, Mark A.; ...

    2017-02-01

    Fractional ow of immiscible phases occurs at the pore scale where grain surfaces and phases interfaces obstruct phase mobility. However, the larger scale behavior is described by a saturation-dependent phenomenological relationship called relative permeability. As a consequence, pore-scale parameters, such as phase topology and/ or geometry, and details of the flow regime cannot be directly related to Darcy-scale flow parameters. It is well understood that relative permeability is not a unique relationship of wetting-phase saturation and rather depends on the experimental conditions at which it is measured. Herein we use fast X-ray microcomputed tomography to image pore-scale phase arrangements duringmore » fractional flow and then forward simulate the flow regimes using the lattice-Boltzmann method to better understand the underlying pore-scale flow regimes and their influence on Darcy-scale parameters. We find that relative permeability is highly dependent on capillary number and that the Corey model fits the observed trends. At the pore scale, while phase topologies are continuously changing on the scale of individual pores, the Euler characteristic of the nonwetting phase (NWP) averaged over a sufficiently large field of view can describe the bulk topological characteristics; the Euler characteristic decreases with increasing capillary number resulting in an increase in relative permeability. Lastly, we quantify the fraction of NWP that flows through disconnected ganglion dynamics and demonstrate that this can be a significant fraction of the NWP flux for intermediate wetting-phase saturation. Furthermore, rate dependencies occur in our homogenous sample (without capillary end effect) and the underlying cause is attributed to ganglion flow that can significantly influence phase topology during the fractional flow of immiscible phases.« less

  14. Overview of the regimes: CWC

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    The Chemical Weapons Convention`s (CWC) seeks to eradicate an entire category of catastrophic weapons and to ensure their continued non-production. Unlike the Non-Proliferation Treaty`s (NPT), the CWC requires disarmament. States Parties having chemical weapons (CW) must destroy them. The CWC has not adopted the NPT distinction between weapons and non-weapons states; the CWC`s prohibitions and obligations will apply identically to all States parties. In most other respects, the two treaties establish similar regimes with similar approaches. Included are objectives and primary obligations, legal bases, institutional oversight, trade restrictions, protection of information, penal consequences, and role of the United Nations.

  15. The New English Quality Assurance Regime

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2011-01-01

    England is developing a new quality assurance regime that will come into effect in October 2011. A new funding regime will operate from the following year, together with new rules to ease the participation of private higher education providers. This article describes and analyses the new quality and funding regimes. It argues that the greater…

  16. Adaptation in Collaborative Governance Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  17. Adaptation in collaborative governance regimes.

    PubMed

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  18. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T = 37.5°C, awaken regime) and Lévy statistics (T = 35.5°C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  19. Stupid statistics!

    PubMed

    Tellinghuisen, Joel

    2008-01-01

    The method of least squares is probably the most powerful data analysis tool available to scientists. Toward a fuller appreciation of that power, this work begins with an elementary review of statistics fundamentals, and then progressively increases in sophistication as the coverage is extended to the theory and practice of linear and nonlinear least squares. The results are illustrated in application to data analysis problems important in the life sciences. The review of fundamentals includes the role of sampling and its connection to probability distributions, the Central Limit Theorem, and the importance of finite variance. Linear least squares are presented using matrix notation, and the significance of the key probability distributions-Gaussian, chi-square, and t-is illustrated with Monte Carlo calculations. The meaning of correlation is discussed, including its role in the propagation of error. When the data themselves are correlated, special methods are needed for the fitting, as they are also when fitting with constraints. Nonlinear fitting gives rise to nonnormal parameter distributions, but the 10% Rule of Thumb suggests that such problems will be insignificant when the parameter is sufficiently well determined. Illustrations include calibration with linear and nonlinear response functions, the dangers inherent in fitting inverted data (e.g., Lineweaver-Burk equation), an analysis of the reliability of the van't Hoff analysis, the problem of correlated data in the Guggenheim method, and the optimization of isothermal titration calorimetry procedures using the variance-covariance matrix for experiment design. The work concludes with illustrations on assessing and presenting results.

  20. Notes on the MUF-D statistic

    SciTech Connect

    Picard, R.R.

    1987-01-01

    Many aspects of the MUF-D statistic, used for verification of accountability data, have been examined in the safeguards literature. In this paper, basic MUF-D results are extended to more general environments than are usually considered. These environments include arbitrary measurement error structures, various sampling regimes that could be imposed by the inspectorate, and the attributes/variables framework.

  1. Fire regime in Mediterranean ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biondi, Guido; Casula, Paolo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Fiorucci, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    The analysis of burnt areas time series in Mediterranean regions suggests that ecosystems characterising this area consist primarily of species highly vulnerable to the fire but highly resilient, as characterized by a significant regenerative capacity after the fire spreading. In a few years the area burnt may once again be covered by the same vegetation present before the fire. Similarly, Mediterranean conifer forests, which often refers to plantations made in order to reforest the areas most severely degraded with high erosion risk, regenerate from seed after the fire resulting in high resilience to the fire as well. Only rarely, and usually with negligible damages, fire affects the areas covered by climax species in relation with altitude and soil types (i.e, quercus, fagus, abies). On the basis of these results, this paper shows how the simple Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is able to reproduce the forest fire regime in terms of number of fires and burned area, describing whit good accuracy the actual fire perimeters. The original Drossel-Schwabl model has been slightly modified in this work by introducing two parameters (probability of propagation and regrowth) specific for each different class of vegetation cover. Using model selection methods based on AIC, the model with the optimal number of classes with different fire behaviour was selected. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are situated in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in

  2. Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design from Exogenously Incomplete Regimes*

    PubMed Central

    Karaivanov, Alexander; Townsend, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    We formulate and solve a range of dynamic models of constrained credit/insurance that allow for moral hazard and limited commitment. We compare them to full insurance and exogenously incomplete financial regimes (autarky, saving only, borrowing and lending in a single asset). We develop computational methods based on mechanism design, linear programming, and maximum likelihood to estimate, compare, and statistically test these alternative dynamic models with financial/information constraints. Our methods can use both cross-sectional and panel data and allow for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate the models using data on Thai households running small businesses from two separate samples. We find that in the rural sample, the exogenously incomplete saving only and borrowing regimes provide the best fit using data on consumption, business assets, investment, and income. Family and other networks help consumption smoothing there, as in a moral hazard constrained regime. In contrast, in urban areas, we find mechanism design financial/information regimes that are decidedly less constrained, with the moral hazard model fitting best combined business and consumption data. We perform numerous robustness checks in both the Thai data and in Monte Carlo simulations and compare our maximum likelihood criterion with results from other metrics and data not used in the estimation. A prototypical counterfactual policy evaluation exercise using the estimation results is also featured. PMID:25246710

  3. Observed trends in the hydrologic regime of Alpine catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bard, Antoine; Renard, Benjamin; Lang, Michel

    2010-05-01

    A European trans-national project, AdaptAlp, has been set up since 2008 in order to study the impacts of climate change in the Alps and to assess adaptation strategies. One of the objectives of this project is to study past and present changes in the hydrologic regime of Alpine rivers. This poster presents preliminary results of a trend analysis over the whole Alpine area. A new dataset of more than two hundred discharge time series has been collected over the six countries of the alpine space: Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Austria, Slovenia and France. These series are made up of at least forty years of daily record and are related to undisturbed catchments. This dataset covers the whole spectrum of hydrological regimes existing in the Alps (from glacier- to mixed rainfall/snow regimes). In a second step, a set of hydrologic indices has been defined to characterize the hydrologic regime in terms of low, medium and high flows. In particular, these indices describe the drought severity (in terms of duration, intensity and volume deficit) and seasonality, the volume and timing of snowmelt, floods intensity and seasonality. A statistical trend test is finally applied for each hydrologic indice at each site. Consistent trends affecting the timing of snowmelt-dominated streamflow are found all over the Alps. Spring floods appear earlier in the season and tend to be longer in duration. Winter droughts tend to be shorter and less severe in terms of volume deficit.

  4. Plastic Surgery Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... PRS GO PSN PSEN GRAFT Contact Us News Plastic Surgery Statistics Plastic surgery procedural statistics from the ... Plastic Surgery Statistics 2005 Plastic Surgery Statistics 2016 Plastic Surgery Statistics Stats Report 2016 National Clearinghouse of ...

  5. Statistical Mechanics of Combinatorial Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galla, Tobias; Leone, Michele; Marsili, Matteo; Sellitto, Mauro; Weigt, Martin; Zecchina, Riccardo

    2006-09-01

    Combinatorial auctions are formulated as frustrated lattice gases on sparse random graphs, allowing the determination of the optimal revenue by methods of statistical physics. Transitions between computationally easy and hard regimes are found and interpreted in terms of the geometric structure of the space of solutions. We introduce an iterative algorithm to solve intermediate and large instances, and discuss competing states of optimal revenue and maximal number of satisfied bidders. The algorithm can be generalized to the hard phase and to more sophisticated auction protocols.

  6. Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oglesby, Robert; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor); Hoffman, Forrest; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D.

    2002-01-01

    A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time

  7. Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, F.; Oglesby, R.; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D.

    2002-12-01

    A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan--has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and

  8. Propagation Regime of Iron Dust Flames

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    A flame propagating through an iron-dust mixture can propagate in two asymptotic regimes. When the characteristic time of heat transfer between particles is much smaller than the characteristic time of particle combustion, the flame propagates in the continuum regime where the heat released by reacting particles can be modelled as a space-averaged function. In contrast, when the characteristic time of heat transfer is much larger than the particle reaction time, the flame can no longer be treated as a continuum due to dominating effects associated with the discrete nature of the particle reaction. The discrete regime is characterized by weak dependence of the flame speed on the oxygen concentration compared to the continuum regime. The discrete regime is observed in flames propagating through an iron dust cloud within a gas mixture containing xenon, while the continuum regime is obtained when xenon is substituted with helium.

  9. Disorder-assisted quantum transport in suboptimal decoherence regimes.

    PubMed

    Novo, Leonardo; Mohseni, Masoud; Omar, Yasser

    2016-01-04

    We investigate quantum transport in binary tree structures and in hypercubes for the disordered Frenkel-exciton Hamiltonian under pure dephasing noise. We compute the energy transport efficiency as a function of disorder and dephasing rates. We demonstrate that dephasing improves transport efficiency not only in the disordered case, but also in the ordered one. The maximal transport efficiency is obtained when the dephasing timescale matches the hopping timescale, which represent new examples of the Goldilocks principle at the quantum scale. Remarkably, we find that in weak dephasing regimes, away from optimal levels of environmental fluctuations, the average effect of increasing disorder is to improve the transport efficiency until an optimal value for disorder is reached. Our results suggest that rational design of the site energies statistical distributions could lead to better performances in transport systems at nanoscale when their natural environments are far from the optimal dephasing regime.

  10. Disorder-assisted quantum transport in suboptimal decoherence regimes

    PubMed Central

    Novo, Leonardo; Mohseni, Masoud; Omar, Yasser

    2016-01-01

    We investigate quantum transport in binary tree structures and in hypercubes for the disordered Frenkel-exciton Hamiltonian under pure dephasing noise. We compute the energy transport efficiency as a function of disorder and dephasing rates. We demonstrate that dephasing improves transport efficiency not only in the disordered case, but also in the ordered one. The maximal transport efficiency is obtained when the dephasing timescale matches the hopping timescale, which represent new examples of the Goldilocks principle at the quantum scale. Remarkably, we find that in weak dephasing regimes, away from optimal levels of environmental fluctuations, the average effect of increasing disorder is to improve the transport efficiency until an optimal value for disorder is reached. Our results suggest that rational design of the site energies statistical distributions could lead to better performances in transport systems at nanoscale when their natural environments are far from the optimal dephasing regime. PMID:26726133

  11. Marine ecosystem regime shifts: challenges and opportunities for ecosystem-based management

    PubMed Central

    Levin, Phillip S.; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the globe. These phenomena can result in dramatic changes in the provision of ecosystem services to coastal communities. Accounting for regime shifts in management clearly requires integrative, ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches. EBM has emerged as an accepted paradigm for ocean management worldwide, yet, despite the rapid and intense development of EBM theory, implementation has languished, and many implemented or proposed EBM schemes largely ignore the special characteristics of regime shifts. Here, we first explore key aspects of regime shifts that are of critical importance to EBM, and then suggest how regime shifts can be better incorporated into EBM using the concept of integrated ecosystem assessment (IEA). An IEA uses approaches that determine the likelihood that ecological or socio-economic properties of systems will move beyond or return to acceptable bounds as defined by resource managers and policy makers. We suggest an approach for implementing IEAs for cases of regime shifts where the objectives are either avoiding an undesired state or returning to a desired condition. We discuss the suitability and short-comings of methods summarizing the status of ecosystem components, screening and prioritizing potential risks, and evaluating alternative management strategies. IEAs are evolving as an EBM approach that can address regime shifts; however, advances in statistical, analytical and simulation modelling are needed before IEAs can robustly inform tactical management in systems characterized by regime shifts.

  12. MQSA National Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Standards Act and Program MQSA Insights MQSA National Statistics Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing options ... but should level off with time. Archived Scorecard Statistics 2017 Scorecard Statistics 2016 Scorecard Statistics (Archived) 2015 ...

  13. Regimes of DNA confined in a nanochannel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Liang; Doyle, Patrick

    2014-03-01

    Scaling regimes for polymers confined to tubular channels are well established when the channel cross-sectional dimension is either very small (Odjik regime) or large (classic de Gennes regime) relative to the polymer Kuhn length. In the literature, there is no clear consensus regarding the intermediate region and if subregimes even exist to connect these two classic bounding regimes. The confluence of emerging single DNA mapping technologies and a resurged interest in the fundamental properties of confined polymers has led to extensive research in this area using DNA as a model system. Due to the DNA molecule's properties and limitations of nanofabrication, most experiments are performed in this intermediate regime with channel dimensions of a few Kuhn lengths. Here we use simulations and theory to reconcile conflicting theories and show that there are indeed extended de Gennes, partial alignment and hairpin regimes located between the two classic regimes. Simulations results for both chain extension and free energy support the existence of these regimes. This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's research program in BioSystems and Micromechanics, the National Science Foundation (CBET-1335938).

  14. FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

  15. Three regimes of relativistic beam - plasma interaction

    SciTech Connect

    Muggli, P.; Allen, B.; Fang, Y.; Yakimenko, V.; Babzien, M.; Kusche, K.; Fedurin, M.; Vieira, J.; Martins, J.; Silva, L.

    2012-12-21

    Three regimes of relativistic beam - plasma interaction can in principle be reached at the ATF depending on the relative transverse and longitudinal size of the electron bunch when compared to the cold plasma collisionless skin depth c?{omega}{sub pe}: the plasma wakefield accelerator (PWFA), the self-modulation instability (SMI), and the current filamentation instability (CFI) regime. In addition, by choosing the bunch density, the linear, quasi-nonlinear and non linear regime of the PWFA can be reached. In the case of the two instabilities, the bunch density determines the growth rate and therefore the occurrence or not of the instability. We briefly describe these three regimes and outline results demonstrating that all these regime have or will be reached experimentally. We also outline planned and possible follow-on experiments.

  16. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  17. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.

  18. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  19. Statistics Poker: Reinforcing Basic Statistical Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leech, Nancy L.

    2008-01-01

    Learning basic statistical concepts does not need to be tedious or dry; it can be fun and interesting through cooperative learning in the small-group activity of Statistics Poker. This article describes a teaching approach for reinforcing basic statistical concepts that can help students who have high anxiety and makes learning and reinforcing…

  20. Predict! Teaching Statistics Using Informational Statistical Inference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Makar, Katie

    2013-01-01

    Statistics is one of the most widely used topics for everyday life in the school mathematics curriculum. Unfortunately, the statistics taught in schools focuses on calculations and procedures before students have a chance to see it as a useful and powerful tool. Researchers have found that a dominant view of statistics is as an assortment of tools…

  1. Distinct Turbulence Saturation Regimes in Stellarators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plunk, G. G.; Xanthopoulos, P.; Helander, P.

    2017-03-01

    In the complex 3D magnetic fields of stellarators, ion-temperature-gradient turbulence is shown to have two distinct saturation regimes, as revealed by petascale numerical simulations and explained by a simple turbulence theory. The first regime is marked by strong zonal flows and matches previous observations in tokamaks. The newly observed second regime, in contrast, exhibits small-scale quasi-two-dimensional turbulence, negligible zonal flows, and, surprisingly, a weaker heat flux scaling. Our findings suggest that key details of the magnetic geometry control turbulence in stellarators.

  2. Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago

    PubMed Central

    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Nyström, Magnus; Norström, Albert V.; Williams, Ivor D.; Wedding, Lisa M.; Kittinger, John N.; Williams, Gareth J.

    2015-01-01

    Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts and, conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. This study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae. Results from boosted regression trees show nonlinear patterns among predictors that help to explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition to effluent, latitude and depth.

  3. Earth Regime Network Evolution Study (ERNESt)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menrad, Bob

    2016-01-01

    Speaker and Presenter at the Lincoln Laboratory Communications Workshop on April 5, 2016 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, MA. A visual presentation titled Earth Regimes Network Evolution Study (ERNESt).

  4. Electron transport fluxes in potato plateau regime

    SciTech Connect

    Shaing, K.C.; Hazeltine, R.D.

    1997-12-01

    Electron transport fluxes in the potato plateau regime are calculated from the solutions of the drift kinetic equation and fluid equations. It is found that the bootstrap current density remains finite in the region close to the magnetic axis, although it decreases with increasing collision frequency. This finite amount of the bootstrap current in the relatively collisional regime is important in modeling tokamak startup with 100{percent} bootstrap current. {copyright} {ital 1997 American Institute of Physics.}

  5. Iranian Regime Reform: Opportunities and Consequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-12-01

    formal political access to mitigate the adverse effects of . . . the deterioration of quality of life .”70 Three broad sets of factors outlined by...demanding changes in the Iranian regime that mesh with U.S.. national interests. However, the Green Movement may not be successful in effecting change...viable threat to the Iranian regime. This thesis used game theory as a tool because game theory outcomes very often reflect real- life outcomes

  6. Statistical mechanics of a discrete nonlinear system

    PubMed

    Rasmussen; Cretegny; Kevrekidis; Gronbech-Jensen

    2000-04-24

    Statistical mechanics of the discrete nonlinear Schrodinger equation is studied by means of analytical and numerical techniques. The lower bound of the Hamiltonian permits the construction of standard Gibbsian equilibrium measures for positive temperatures. Beyond the line of T = infinity, we identify a phase transition through a discontinuity in the partition function. The phase transition is demonstrated to manifest itself in the creation of breatherlike localized excitations. Interrelation between the statistical mechanics and the nonlinear dynamics of the system is explored numerically in both regimes.

  7. Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Tumor > Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics Request Permissions Neuroendocrine Tumor: Statistics Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 11/ ... the body. It is important to remember that statistics on how many people survive this type of ...

  8. Adrenal Gland Tumors: Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Gland Tumor: Statistics Request Permissions Adrenal Gland Tumor: Statistics Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 03/ ... primary adrenal gland tumor is very uncommon. Exact statistics are not available for this type of tumor ...

  9. PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION

  10. Greenland Meltwater and Arctic Circulation Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Proshutinsky, A. Y.; Timmermans, M. L.; Myers, P. G.; Platov, G.

    2015-12-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, wind-driven components of ice drift and surface ocean currents experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability alternating between anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation regimes. During cyclonic regimes, low sea level atmospheric pressure dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean toward the sub-Arctic seas was intensified. During anticylonic circulation regimes, high sea level pressure dominated over the Arctic driving sea ice and ocean counter-clockwise; the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the sub-Arctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been dominated by an anticyclonic circulation regime with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for these regimes. Of essential importance is to discern the causes and consequences of the apparent break-down in the natural decadal variability of the Arctic climate system, and specifically: Why has the well-pronounced decadal variability observed in the 20th century been replaced by relatively weak interannual changes under anticyclonic circulation regime conditions in the 21st century? We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. In order to test this hypothesis, numerical experiments with several FAMOS (Forum for Arctic Modeling & Observational Synthesis) ice-ocean coupled models have been conducted. In these experiments, Greenland melt freshwater is tracked by passive tracers being constantly released along the Greenland coast. Propagation pathways and time scales of Greenland meltwater within the sub-Arctic seas are discussed.

  11. A holistic view of marine regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  12. Hydrological regime modifications induced by climate change in Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    The knowledge of river flow regimes has a capital importance for a variety of practical applications, in water resource management, including optimal and sustainable use. Hydrological regime is highly dependent on climatic factors, among which the most important is surely the precipitation, in terms of frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall events. The streamflow frequency regime of river basins are often summarized by flow duration curves (FDCs), that offer a simple and comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability associated with streamflow, and characterize the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Climate change is likely to lead shifts in the hydrological regime, and, consequently, in the FDCs. Staring from this premise, the primary objective of the present study is to explore the effects of potential climate changes on the hydrological regime of some small Mediterranean basins. To this aim it is here used a recent hydrological model, the ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in small catchments. The model has been calibrated and successively validated in a unique small catchment, where it has shown a satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. Thus, this work also represents a first attempt to apply the ModABa to basins different from that used for its preliminary design in order to testing its generality. Different case studies are selected within the Sicily region; the model is first calibrated at the sites and then forced by future climatic scenarios, highlighting the principal differences emerging from the current scenario and future FDCs. The future climate scenarios are generated using

  13. Statistical Reference Datasets

    National Institute of Standards and Technology Data Gateway

    Statistical Reference Datasets (Web, free access)   The Statistical Reference Datasets is also supported by the Standard Reference Data Program. The purpose of this project is to improve the accuracy of statistical software by providing reference datasets with certified computational results that enable the objective evaluation of statistical software.

  14. Explorations in statistics: statistical facets of reproducibility.

    PubMed

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This eleventh installment of Explorations in Statistics explores statistical facets of reproducibility. If we obtain an experimental result that is scientifically meaningful and statistically unusual, we would like to know that our result reflects a general biological phenomenon that another researcher could reproduce if (s)he repeated our experiment. But more often than not, we may learn this researcher cannot replicate our result. The National Institutes of Health and the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology have created training modules and outlined strategies to help improve the reproducibility of research. These particular approaches are necessary, but they are not sufficient. The principles of hypothesis testing and estimation are inherent to the notion of reproducibility in science. If we want to improve the reproducibility of our research, then we need to rethink how we apply fundamental concepts of statistics to our science.

  15. Dynamic treatment regimes: technical challenges and applications

    PubMed Central

    Lizotte, Daniel J.; Qian, Min; Pelham, William E.; Murphy, Susan A.

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes are of growing interest across the clinical sciences because these regimes provide one way to operationalize and thus inform sequential personalized clinical decision making. Formally, a dynamic treatment regime is a sequence of decision rules, one per stage of clinical intervention. Each decision rule maps up-to-date patient information to a recommended treatment. We briefly review a variety of approaches for using data to construct the decision rules. We then review a critical inferential challenge that results from nonregularity, which often arises in this area. In particular, nonregularity arises in inference for parameters in the optimal dynamic treatment regime; the asymptotic, limiting, distribution of estimators are sensitive to local perturbations. We propose and evaluate a locally consistent Adaptive Confidence Interval (ACI) for the parameters of the optimal dynamic treatment regime. We use data from the Adaptive Pharmacological and Behavioral Treatments for Children with ADHD Trial as an illustrative example. We conclude by highlighting and discussing emerging theoretical problems in this area. PMID:25356091

  16. Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2013-04-01

    The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

  17. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles

    PubMed Central

    Zelnik, Yuval R.; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-01-01

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions—regime shifts—are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water–vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts. PMID:26362787

  18. Massive superstring scatterings in the Regge regime

    SciTech Connect

    He Song; Lee, Jen-Chi; Takahashi, Keijiro; Yang Yi

    2011-03-15

    We calculate four classes of high-energy massive string scattering amplitudes of fermionic string theory at arbitrary mass levels in the Regge regime (RR). We show that all four leading order amplitudes in the RR can be expressed in terms of the Kummer function of the second kind. Based on the summation algorithm of a set of extended signed Stirling number identities, we show that all four ratios calculated previously by the method of decoupling of zero-norm states among scattering amplitudes in the Gross regime can be extracted from this Kummer function in the RR. Finally, we conjecture and give evidence that the existence of these four Gross regime ratios in the RR persists to subleading orders in the Regge expansion of all high-energy fermionic string scattering amplitudes.

  19. Gradual regime shifts in fairy circles.

    PubMed

    Zelnik, Yuval R; Meron, Ehud; Bel, Golan

    2015-10-06

    Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we investigated the dynamics of the Namibian fairy circle ecosystem as a case study of regime shifts in a pattern-forming ecosystem. Our results provide new support, based on the dynamics of the ecosystem, for the view of fairy circles as a self-organization phenomenon driven by water-vegetation interactions. The study further suggests that fairy circle birth and death processes correspond to spatially confined transitions between alternative stable states. Cascades of such transitions, possible in various pattern-forming systems, result in gradual rather than abrupt regime shifts.

  20. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

    2013-07-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.

  1. On the regimes of charge reversal.

    PubMed

    Jiménez-Angeles, Felipe; Lozada-Cassou, Marcelo

    2008-05-07

    Charge reversal of the planar electrical double layer is studied by means of a well known integral equation theory. By a numerical analysis, a diagram is constructed with the onset points of charge reversal in the space of the fundamental variables of the system. Within this diagram, two regimes of charge reversal are identified, which are referred to as oscillatory and nonoscillatory. We found that these two regimes can be distinguished through a simple formula. Furthermore, a symmetry between electrostatic and size correlations in charge reversal is exhibited. Agreement of our results with other theories and molecular simulations data is discussed.

  2. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime.

    PubMed

    Amet, F; Ke, C T; Borzenets, I V; Wang, J; Watanabe, K; Taniguchi, T; Deacon, R S; Yamamoto, M; Bomze, Y; Tarucha, S; Finkelstein, G

    2016-05-20

    A promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the QH regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has been challenging to observe. We demonstrate the existence of a distinct supercurrent mechanism in encapsulated graphene samples contacted by superconducting electrodes, in magnetic fields as high as 2 tesla. The observation of a supercurrent in the QH regime marks an important step in the quest for exotic topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions, which may find applications in fault-tolerant quantum computing.

  3. Light focusing in the Anderson regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leonetti, Marco; Karbasi, Salman; Mafi, Arash; Conti, Claudio

    2014-07-01

    Anderson localization is a regime in which diffusion is inhibited and waves (also electromagnetic waves) get localized. Here we exploit adaptive optics to achieve focusing in disordered optical fibres in the Anderson regime. By wavefront shaping and optimization, we observe the generation of a propagation-invariant beam, where light is trapped transversally by disorder, and show that Anderson localizations can be also excited by extended speckled beams. We demonstrate that disordered fibres allow a more efficient focusing action with respect to standard fibres in a way independent of their length, because of the propagation-invariant features and cooperative action of transverse localizations.

  4. Convective Regimes in Crystallizing Basaltic Magma Chambers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilbert, A. J.; Neufeld, J. A.; Holness, M. B.

    2015-12-01

    Cooling through the chamber walls drives crystallisation in crustal magma chambers, resulting in a cumulate pile on the floor and mushy regions at the walls and roof. The liquid in many magma chambers, either the bulk magma or the interstitial liquid in the mushy regions, may convect, driven either thermally, due to cooling, or compositionally, due to fractional crystallization. We have constructed a regime diagram of the possible convective modes in a system containing a basal mushy layer. These modes depend on the large-scale buoyancy forcing characterised by a global Rayleigh number and the proportion of the chamber height constituting the basal mushy region. We have tested this regime diagram using an analogue experimental system composed of a fluid layer overlying a pile of almost neutrally buoyant inert particles. Convection in this system is driven thermally, simulating magma convection above and within a porous cumulate pile. We observe a range of possible convective regimes, enabling us to produce a regime diagram. In addition to modes characterised by convection of the bulk and interstitial fluid, we also observe a series of regimes where the crystal pile is mobilised by fluid motions. These regimes feature saltation and scouring of the crystal pile by convection in the bulk fluid at moderate Rayleigh numbers, and large crystal-rich fountains at high Rayleigh numbers. For even larger Rayleigh numbers the entire crystal pile is mobilised in what we call the snowglobe regime. The observed mobilisation regimes may be applicable to basaltic magma chambers. Plagioclase in basal cumulates crystallised from a dense magma may be a result of crystal mobilisation from a plagioclase-rich roof mush. Compositional convection within such a mush could result in disaggregation, enabling the buoyant plagioclase to be entrained in relatively dense descending liquid plumes and brought to the floor. The phenocryst load in porphyritic lavas is often interpreted as a

  5. Atmospheric weather regimes over tropical South America

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Connors, Vickie S.; Garstang, Michael; Nolf, Scott R.

    1991-01-01

    Infrared radiance measurements by the GOES-6 satellite during April 1986 through April 1987 were used to characterize and identify distinct regimes of persistent large-scale cloudiness patterns over the Amazon Basin. It is suggested that the energetics of the tropical troposphere over the Amazon Basin can be directly related to the GOES large-scale cloudiness patterns. The geometry and persistence of the cloud patterns are influenced by shifts in general circulation features and are likely modulated by 4- to 5-day and 40- to 60-day waves. Diurnal forcing effects are more pronounced during weather regimes characterized by prominently clear skies over land areas.

  6. Markovian quantum master equation beyond adiabatic regime.

    PubMed

    Yamaguchi, Makoto; Yuge, Tatsuro; Ogawa, Tetsuo

    2017-01-01

    By introducing a temporal change time scale τ_{A}(t) for the time-dependent system Hamiltonian, a general formulation of the Markovian quantum master equation is given to go well beyond the adiabatic regime. In appropriate situations, the framework is well justified even if τ_{A}(t) is faster than the decay time scale of the bath correlation function. An application to the dissipative Landau-Zener model demonstrates this general result. The findings are applicable to a wide range of fields, providing a basis for quantum control beyond the adiabatic regime.

  7. Markovian quantum master equation beyond adiabatic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Makoto; Yuge, Tatsuro; Ogawa, Tetsuo

    2017-01-01

    By introducing a temporal change time scale τA(t ) for the time-dependent system Hamiltonian, a general formulation of the Markovian quantum master equation is given to go well beyond the adiabatic regime. In appropriate situations, the framework is well justified even if τA(t ) is faster than the decay time scale of the bath correlation function. An application to the dissipative Landau-Zener model demonstrates this general result. The findings are applicable to a wide range of fields, providing a basis for quantum control beyond the adiabatic regime.

  8. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amet, F.; Ke, C. T.; Borzenets, I. V.; Wang, J.; Watanabe, K.; Taniguchi, T.; Deacon, R. S.; Yamamoto, M.; Bomze, Y.; Tarucha, S.; Finkelstein, G.

    2016-05-01

    A promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the QH regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has been challenging to observe. We demonstrate the existence of a distinct supercurrent mechanism in encapsulated graphene samples contacted by superconducting electrodes, in magnetic fields as high as 2 tesla. The observation of a supercurrent in the QH regime marks an important step in the quest for exotic topological excitations, such as Majorana fermions and parafermions, which may find applications in fault-tolerant quantum computing.

  9. Thoroughbred blood serum inorganic phosphate concentrations in relation to feeding regime and racing performance.

    PubMed

    Denny, J E

    1987-06-01

    Horses receiving a pelleted or cubed dietary supplementation with roughage, have serum inorganic phosphate (SIP) concentrations consistently below an accepted mean of 1,032 mmol l-1 or 3, 1 mg dl-1. Further, it has been reported that the best eight, two-year-old Irish Thoroughbred track performers of 51 horses tested over a 10 month period, had significantly lower SIP concentrations than the worst eight track performers. In an endeavour to assess any nutritive effect on SIP concentrations and also to assess any effect of SIP concentrations on track performance, metabolic blood profiles from 303 horses in training at the Summerveld Training centre in Natal, were evaluated for various blood parameters over a two year period. Of these 303 profiles, 264 were analysed for SIP concentrations. These horses were on three known feeding regimes viz. Feed 1--cube feeding plus hay; Feed 2--oats, wheaten bran and greens plus hay; Feed 3--Mixed feeding regime of feeds 1 and 2; Feed 4--unknown regime. Dry matter intake varied between 2 and 2.5% of estimated bodymass and in the Feed 1 regime, the proportion of cubed supplement in the diet was increased from 30 to 70% as the training programme progressed. Statistical analysis of SIP concentrations showed that horses on the Feed 1 regime had significantly lower SIP concentrations than horses on the other feed regimes. Of the 303 profiles, 224 could be identified with actual races.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  10. Investigating Satellite Microwave observations of Precipitation in Different Climate Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, N.; Ferraro, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    Microwave satellite remote sensing of precipitation over land is a challenging problem due to the highly variable land surface emissivity, which, if not properly accounted for, can be much greater than the precipitation signal itself, especially in light rain/snow conditions. Additionally, surfaces such as arid land, deserts and snow cover have brightness temperature characteristics similar to precipitation Ongoing work by GPM microwave radiometer team is constructing databases through a variety of means, however, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed for the wide array of sensors in the GPM constellation, including examination of regional conditions. The original data sets will focus on stratification by emissivity class, surface temperature and total perceptible water. We'll perform sensitivity studies to determine the potential role of ancillary data (e.g., land surface temperature, snow cover/water equivalent, etc.) to improve precipitation estimation over land in different climate regimes, including rain and snow. In other words, what information outside of the radiances can help describe the background and subsequent departures from it that are active precipitating regions? It is likely that this information will be a function of the various precipitation regimes. Statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be utilized in this task. Databases from a variety of sources are being constructed. They include existing satellite microwave measurements of precipitating and non-precipitating conditions, ground radar precipitation rate estimates, surface emissivity climatology from satellites, surface temperature and TPW from NWP reanalysis. Results from the analysis of these databases with respect to the microwave precipitation sensitivity to the variety of environmental conditions in different climate regimes will be discussed.

  11. Influence of intra-event-based flood regime on sediment flow behavior from a typical agro-catchment of the Chinese Loess Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Le-Tao; Li, Zhan-Bin; Wang, He; Xiao, Jun-Bo

    2016-07-01

    The pluvial erosion process is significantly affected by tempo-spatial patterns of flood flows. However, despite their importance, only a few studies have investigated the sediment flow behavior that is driven by different flood regimes. The study aims to investigate the effect of intra-event-based flood regimes on the dynamics of sediment exports at Tuanshangou catchment, a typical agricultural catchment (unmanaged) in the hilly loess region on the Chinese Loess Plateau. Measurements of 193 flood events and 158 sediment-producing events were collected from Tuanshangou station between 1961 and 1969. The combined methods of hierarchical clustering approach, discriminant analysis and One-Way ANOVA were used to classify the flood events in terms of their event-based flood characteristics, including flood duration, peak discharge, and event flood runoff depth. The 193 flood events were classified into five regimes, and the mean statistical features of each regime significantly differed. Regime A includes flood events with the shortest duration (76 min), minimum flood crest (0.045 m s-1), least runoff depth (0.2 mm), and highest frequency. Regime B includes flood events with a medium duration (274 min), medium flood crest (0.206 m s-1), and minor runoff depth (0.7 mm). Regime C includes flood events with the longest duration (822 min), medium flood crest (0.236 m s-1), and medium runoff depth (1.7 mm). Regime D includes flood events with a medium duration (239 min), large flood crest (4.21 m s-1), and large runoff depth (10 mm). Regime E includes flood events with a medium duration (304 min), maximum flood crest (8.62 m s-1), and largest runoff depth (25.9 mm). The sediment yield by different flood regimes is ranked as follows: Regime E > Regime D > Regime B > Regime C > Regime A. In terms of event-based average and maximum suspended sediment concentration, these regimes are ordered as follows: Regime E > Regime D > Regime C > Regime B > Regime A. Regimes D and E

  12. Delinating Thermohaline Double-Diffusive Rayleigh Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Graf, T.; Walther, M.; Kolditz, O.; Liedl, R.

    2013-12-01

    In natural systems, convective flow induced from density differences may occur in near-coastal aquifers, atmospheric boundary layers, oceanic streams or within the earth crust. Whether an initially stable, diffusive regime evolves into a convective (stable or chaotic) regime, or vice versa, depends on the system's framing boundary conditions. A conventional parameter to express the relation between diffusive and convective forces of such a density-driven regime is Rayleigh number (Ra). While most systems are mainly dominated by only a single significant driving force (i.e. only temperature or salinity), some systems need to consider two boundary processes (e.g. deep, thus warm, haline flow in porous media). In that case, a two-dimensional, 'double-diffusive' Rayleigh system can be defined. Nield (1998) postulated a boundary between diffusive and convective regime at RaT + RaC = 4pi^2 in the first quadrant (Q1), with Rayleigh numbers for temperature and concentration respectively. The boundary in the forth quadrant (Q4) could not exactly be determined, yet the approximate position estimated. Simulations with HydroGeoSphere (Therrien, 2010) using a vertical, quadratic, homogeneous, isotropic setup confirmed the existence of the 4pi^2-boundary and revealed additional regimes (diffusive, single-roll, double-roll, chaotic) in Q1. Also, non-chaotic, oscillating patterns could be identified in Q4. More detailed investigations with OpenGeoSys (Kolditz, 2012) confirmed the preceding HGS results, and, using a 1:10-scaled domain (height:length), uncovered even more distinctive regimes (diffusive, minimum ten roles, supposely up to 25 roles, and chaotic?) in Q1, while again, oscillating patterns were found in the transition zone between diffusive and chaotic regimes in Q4. Output of numerical simulations from Q1 and Q4 show the mentioned regimes (diffusive, stable-convective, stable-oscillatory, chaotic) while results are displayed in context of a possible delination between

  13. Three Distinct Exoplanet Regimes Inferred From Host Star Metallicities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buchhave, Lars A.; Bizzarro, Martin; Latham, David W.; Sasselov, Dimitar D.

    2014-06-01

    The occurrence rate of exoplanets smaller than 4 Earth radii (RE) in short orbits is ~50%. Despite their sheer abundance, the compositions of planets populating this regime are largely unknown. The available evidence suggests the existence of a compositional range, from small high-density rocky planets to low-density planets consisting of rocky cores surrounded by thick H/He gas envelopes. Understanding the transition from the gaseous planets to Earth-like rocky worlds is important to estimate the number of potentially habitable planets in our Galaxy and provide constraints on planet formation theories. Here, we report the abundances of heavy elements (metallicities) of over 400 stars hosting 600 exoplanet candidates discovered by the Kepler Mission and find that the exoplanets can be categorized into three populations defined by statistically distinct 4.5σ) metallicity regions. We interpret these regions as reflecting the formation regimes of terrestrial-like planets (RP < 1.7 RE), gas-dwarf planets with rocky cores and H/He envelopes (1.7 < RP < 3.9 RE) and ice/gas-giant planets (RP > 3.9 RE). These transitions resonate well with those inferred from dynamical mass estimates, implying that host-star metallicity - a proxy for the initial solid inventory of the protoplanetary disk - is a key ingredient regulating the structure of planetary systems.

  14. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-10-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics.

  15. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    PubMed Central

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-01-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics. PMID:27761005

  16. A Global Classification of Contemporary Fire Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2014-12-01

    Fire regimes provide a sensitive indicator of changes in climate and human use as the concept includes fire extent, season, frequency, and intensity. Fires that occur outside the distribution of one or more aspects of a fire regime may affect ecosystem resilience. However, global scale data related to these varied aspects of fire regimes are highly inconsistent due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting. In this study, we derive a globally applicable approach to characterizing similar fire regimes using long geophysical time series, namely MODIS hotspots since 2000. K-means non-hierarchical clustering was used to generate empirically based groups that minimized within-cluster variability. Satellite-based fire detections are known to have shortcomings, including under-detection from obscuring smoke, clouds or dense canopy cover and rapid spread rates, as often occurs with flashy fuels or during extreme weather. Such regions are free from preconceptions, and the empirical, data-mining approach used on this relatively uniform data source allows the region structures to emerge from the data themselves. Comparing such an empirical classification to expectations from climate, phenology, land use or development-based models can help us interpret the similarities and differences among places and how they provide different indicators of changes of concern. Classifications can help identify where large infrequent mega-fires are likely to occur ahead of time such as in the boreal forest and portions of the Interior US West, and where fire reports are incomplete such as in less industrial countries.

  17. Climatic regimes of tropical convection and rainfall

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Bin )

    1994-07-01

    Annual distribution and phase propagation of tropical convection are delineated using harmonic and amplitude-phase characteristics analysis of climatological pentad mean outgoing longwave radiation and monthly frequencies of highly reflective cloud. An annual eastward propagation of peak rainy season along the equator from the central Indian Ocean (60[degrees]E) to Arafura Sea (130[degrees]E) is revealed. This indicates a transition from the withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon to the onset of the Australian summer monsoon. Significant bimodal variations are found around major summer monsoon regions. These variations originate from the interference of two adjacent regimes. The convergence zones over the eastern North Pacific, the South Pacific, and the southwest Indian Ocean are identified as a marine monsoon regime that is characterized by a unimodal variation with a concentrated summer rainfall associated with the development of surface westerlies equatorward of a monsoon trough. Conversely, the central North Pacific and North Atlantic convergence zones between persistent northeast and southeast trades are classified as trade-wind convergence zones; which differ from the marine monsoon regime by their persistent rainy season and characteristic bimodal variation with peak rainy seasons occurring in late spring and fall. The roles of the annual march of sea surface temperature in the phase propagation and formation of various climatic regimes of tropical convection are also discussed. 34 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Knowledge Regimes and Contradictions in Education Reforms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aasen, Petter; Prøitz, Tine Sophie; Sandberg, Nina

    2014-01-01

    The article outlines a theoretical framework for understanding education policy and education reforms based on the concept of knowledge regimes. The concept refers to understandings and definitions of governance and procedural aspects, manners of governing and curriculum issues, thus it comprises contents, structures, and processes of education…

  19. Impacts of different hydrodynamic regimes on flocculation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez-Mendoza, Rafael; Souza, Alejandro; Amoudry, Laurent

    2014-05-01

    A number of activities carried out in coastal zones and estuaries are affected by sediment transport. Therefore, good knowledge of the processes involved is necessary to adequately manage these areas. Flocculation is a key process on fine sediment dynamics, which affects the effective particle size and settling velocity. The process is further complicated under the combined effect of currents and waves. This research seeks to improve our understanding of the flocculation process under the combined effect of currents and waves. The study site is the Dee Estuary located in Liverpool Bay, United Kingdom. Measurements of volume concentration, grain size and current velocities near the sea bed were obtained from a mooring deployed between 12 February 2008 and 9 March 2008. Turbulent properties could also be calculated because of the fast sampling rate used for current velocities. Water samples were taken from a research vessel during the first two days of the study in order to calibrate moored instruments and convert volume to mass concentration. The observations almost covered two fortnightly periods and three different dynamic regimes can be distinguished: currents-only, combined waves and currents, and wave dominated. During the currents-only regime, floc aggregation and breakup coincide with periods of low and high turbulent stress respectively. The combination of waves and spring tide currents makes the second regime and the floc breakup is most dominant when waves are higher than one meter and small flocs are found even with low turbulent stress from both waves and currents. The third regime is identified as wave-dominant during neap tides with current speed less than 0.25 m/s and waves of 1-2 meters height. In this regime the wave effect takes large sediment into suspension at the same time as small particle sizes from floc breakup. In this case the median particle size is strongly related to the wave height which means that a slight particle aggregation is still

  20. Mathematical and statistical analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Houston, A. Glen

    1988-01-01

    The goal of the mathematical and statistical analysis component of RICIS is to research, develop, and evaluate mathematical and statistical techniques for aerospace technology applications. Specific research areas of interest include modeling, simulation, experiment design, reliability assessment, and numerical analysis.

  1. Uterine Cancer Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Research AMIGAS Fighting Cervical Cancer Worldwide Stay Informed Statistics for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal ( ... Skin Vaginal and Vulvar Cancer Home Uterine Cancer Statistics Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

  2. Experiment in Elementary Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fernando, P. C. B.

    1976-01-01

    Presents an undergraduate laboratory exercise in elementary statistics in which students verify empirically the various aspects of the Gaussian distribution. Sampling techniques and other commonly used statistical procedures are introduced. (CP)

  3. What can we learn from noise? - Mesoscopic nonequilibrium statistical physics.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Kensuke

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscopic systems - small electric circuits working in quantum regime - offer us a unique experimental stage to explorer quantum transport in a tunable and precise way. The purpose of this Review is to show how they can contribute to statistical physics. We introduce the significance of fluctuation, or equivalently noise, as noise measurement enables us to address the fundamental aspects of a physical system. The significance of the fluctuation theorem (FT) in statistical physics is noted. We explain what information can be deduced from the current noise measurement in mesoscopic systems. As an important application of the noise measurement to statistical physics, we describe our experimental work on the current and current noise in an electron interferometer, which is the first experimental test of FT in quantum regime. Our attempt will shed new light in the research field of mesoscopic quantum statistical physics.

  4. Regime Dependant Microphysical Variability in Darwin, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dolan, B.; Rutledge, S. A.; Lang, T. J.

    2010-12-01

    Of utmost importance for global precipitation estimates from satellites such as TRMM and the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) is to understand processes that lead to variability in precipitation on sub-seasonal, seasonal, and climatological scales. Many studies have linked differences in rainfall characteristics such as mean diameter (D0) to sub-seasonal regime variability forced by large scale wind shifts, topography, and continental and maritime convection, across various regions of the globe. Several analyses have tied differences between regimes to differing microphysical processes that drive changes in the drop-size distributions occurring in convective rainfall. For example, decreased ice mass aloft and smaller mean diameters are indicative of warm rain processes, while vigorous ice formation leads to large, melting ice to create large drops. If the microphysical variability in different regimes is characterized and understood, the results could be used to improve satellite precipitation algorithms. The polarimetric, Doppler C-band radar, CPOL, located near Darwin, Australia provides a unique platform to study differences in microphysics between land and ocean, as well as variability between monsoon and break periods. The focus of this study is to examine the microphysical processes occurring in four distinct regimes around Darwin (monsoon-land, monsoon-ocean, break-land, break-ocean), using polarimetric data from CPOL. Analyses such as contoured frequency by altitude (CFADs) diagrams, cumulative distribution functions, and mean profiles of precipitation water mass, precipitation ice mass, reflectivity, differential reflectivity and specific differential phase will aide in understanding the physics of precipitation in these regimes. The formation of precipitation ice aloft, warm rain processes, and the contributions of warm rain and cold cloud processes including melting of ice into large drops, will be linked to differences in D0, rain

  5. Spatial Statistical Network Models for Stream and River Temperature in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional temperature models are needed for characterizing and mapping stream thermal regimes, establishing reference conditions, predicting future impacts and identifying critical thermal refugia. Spatial statistical models have been developed to improve regression modeling techn...

  6. Ethics in Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lenard, Christopher; McCarthy, Sally; Mills, Terence

    2014-01-01

    There are many different aspects of statistics. Statistics involves mathematics, computing, and applications to almost every field of endeavour. Each aspect provides an opportunity to spark someone's interest in the subject. In this paper we discuss some ethical aspects of statistics, and describe how an introduction to ethics has been…

  7. Teaching Statistics Using SAS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mandeville, Garrett K.

    The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) is presented as the single most appropriate statistical package to use as an aid in teaching statistics. A brief review of literature in which SAS is compared to SPSS, BMDP, and other packages is followed by six examples which demonstrate features unique to SAS which have pedagogical utility. Of particular…

  8. Minnesota Health Statistics 1988.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Minnesota State Dept. of Health, St. Paul.

    This document comprises the 1988 annual statistical report of the Minnesota Center for Health Statistics. After introductory technical notes on changes in format, sources of data, and geographic allocation of vital events, an overview is provided of vital health statistics in all areas. Thereafter, separate sections of the report provide tables…

  9. Regime Shifts in the Anthropocene: Drivers, Risks, and Resilience

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D.; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers. PMID:26267896

  10. Regime shifts in the anthropocene: drivers, risks, and resilience.

    PubMed

    Rocha, Juan Carlos; Peterson, Garry D; Biggs, Reinette

    2015-01-01

    Many ecosystems can experience regime shifts: surprising, large and persistent changes in the function and structure of ecosystems. Assessing whether continued global change will lead to further regime shifts, or has the potential to trigger cascading regime shifts has been a central question in global change policy. Addressing this issue has, however, been hampered by the focus of regime shift research on specific cases and types of regime shifts. To systematically assess the global risk of regime shifts we conducted a comparative analysis of 25 generic types of regime shifts across marine, terrestrial and polar systems; identifying their drivers, and impacts on ecosystem services. Our results show that the drivers of regime shifts are diverse and co-occur strongly, which suggests that continued global change can be expected to synchronously increase the risk of multiple regime shifts. Furthermore, many regime shift drivers are related to climate change and food production, whose links to the continued expansion of human activities makes them difficult to limit. Because many regime shifts can amplify the drivers of other regime shifts, continued global change can also be expected to increase the risk of cascading regime shifts. Nevertheless, the variety of scales at which regime shift drivers operate provides opportunities for reducing the risk of many types of regime shifts by addressing local or regional drivers, even in the absence of rapid reduction of global drivers.

  11. Statistical Methods for Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feigelson, Eric D.; Babu, G. Jogesh

    Statistical methodology, with deep roots in probability theory, providesquantitative procedures for extracting scientific knowledge from astronomical dataand for testing astrophysical theory. In recent decades, statistics has enormouslyincreased in scope and sophistication. After a historical perspective, this reviewoutlines concepts of mathematical statistics, elements of probability theory,hypothesis tests, and point estimation. Least squares, maximum likelihood, andBayesian approaches to statistical inference are outlined. Resampling methods,particularly the bootstrap, provide valuable procedures when distributionsfunctions of statistics are not known. Several approaches to model selection andgoodness of fit are considered.

  12. Dominant takeover regimes for genetic algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David; Baskaran, Subbiah

    1995-01-01

    The genetic algorithm (GA) is a machine-based optimization routine which connects evolutionary learning to natural genetic laws. The present work addresses the problem of obtaining the dominant takeover regimes in the GA dynamics. Estimated GA run times are computed for slow and fast convergence in the limits of high and low fitness ratios. Using Euler's device for obtaining partial sums in closed forms, the result relaxes the previously held requirements for long time limits. Analytical solution reveal that appropriately accelerated regimes can mark the ascendancy of the most fit solution. In virtually all cases, the weak (logarithmic) dependence of convergence time on problem size demonstrates the potential for the GA to solve large N-P complete problems.

  13. Flamelet Regime Diagram for Turbulent Combustion Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Wai Lee; Ihme, Matthias; Kolla, Hemanth; Chen, Jacqueline

    2016-11-01

    The flamelet model has been widely used in numerical combustion investigations, particularly for the closure of large-eddy simulations (LES) of turbulent reacting flows. In most cases, the simulation results demonstrated good agreements with their experimental counterparts. However, a systematic analysis of the flamelet model's applicability, as well as its potential limitations, is seldom conducted, and the model performance is usually based only on a-posteriori comparisons. The objective of this work is to derive a metric that can formally quantify the suitability of the flamelet model in different flame configurations. For this purpose, a flamelet regime diagram has been developed and studied in the context of direct numerical simulations (DNS) of a turbulent lifted jet flame. The implementation of the regime diagram in LES has been investigated through explicit filtering of the DNS results.

  14. Photoelectron circular dichroism in different ionization regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wollenhaupt, Matthias

    2016-12-01

    Photoelectron circular dichroism (PECD) describes an asymmetry in the photoelectron angular distribution (PAD) from photoionization of randomly oriented enantiomers with circularly polarized light. Baulieu et al present a comprehensive set of measured PADs from multiphoton ionization of limonene and fenchone in different ionization regimes (multiphoton and tunneling) and analyze the resulting PECD (Baulieu et al 2016 New J. Phys. 18 102002). From their observations the authors conclude that the PECD is universal in the sense that the molecular chirality is encoded in the PAD independent of the ionization regime. The analysis is supplemented by a classical model based on electron scattering in a chiral potential. The paper presents beautiful data and is an important step towards a more complete physical picture of PECD. The results and their interpretation stimulate the ongoing vivid debate on the role of resonances in multiphoton PECD.

  15. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajic, A.

    2013-12-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock.

  16. Economic Performance and North Korean Regime Legitimacy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-06-01

    PERFORMANCE AND NORTH KOREAN REGIME LEGITIMACY by Patrick J. Moore June 2014 Thesis Advisor: Naazneen Barma Second Reader: Robert Weiner THIS...Advisor Dr. Robert Weiner Second Reader Dr. Mohammed Hafez Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iv THIS PAGE...offers a view of success, the country outside the capital is a much different situation. Victor Cha writes that even in Kaesong, the second -largest city

  17. A Regime Legitimacy Explanation of African Peacekeeping

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-01

    peacekeeping in a U-shaped curve, meaning that states attempting to increase their legitimacy participate at a higher-than-expected level. Likewise, the...distribution is unlimited A REGIME LEGITIMACY EXPLANATION OF AFRICAN PEACEKEEPING Matthew Ross Second Lieutenant, United States Air Force...B.S., Political Science, United States Air Force Academy, 2010 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

  18. Maxwellian distribution in non-classical regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohazzabi, Pirooz; L. Helvey, Shannon; McCumber, Jeremy

    2002-12-01

    A molecular dynamics investigation shows that the assumption of molecular chaos remains valid in the non-classical regime. Consequently, the velocity distribution function of an extremely dense system of spinless particles relaxes into Maxwellian, even in the presence of arbitrary interactions between the particles of the system. Systems with densities exceeding 30 times solid densities are investigated using a soft Lennard-Jones interparticle potential energy function.

  19. The nuclear non-proliferation treaty regime

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) regime, including national safeguards agreements and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Statute, embodies the international effort to ban illicit transfers of nuclear material and acquisition or transfer of nuclear weaponry. Included are objectives and primary obligations, legal bases, institutional oversight, trade restrictions, protection of information, penal consequences, and role of the United Nations. Regional agreements supplement the NPT.

  20. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-25

    the further spread of nuclear weapons, several challenges to the regime have arisen in recent years: India and Pakistan tested nuclear weapons in 1998...States and other countries to India , a non-party to the NPT with nuclear weapons, has raised questions about what benefits still exist for non... India , Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel are not members of the NPT. Apart from diplomatic questions about how to treat their status as states with

  1. Bose polarons in the strongly interacting regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kedar, Dhruv; Hu, Ming-Guang; van de Graaff, Michael; Corson, John; Cornell, Eric; Jin, Deborah

    2016-05-01

    Impurities immersed in and interacting with a Bose-Einstein condensate (BEC) are predicted to form quasiparticle excitations called Bose polarons. I will present experimental evidence of Bose polarons in cold atoms obtained using radio-frequency spectroscopy to measure the excitation spectrum of fermionic K-40 impurities interacting with a BEC of Rb-87 atoms. We use an interspecies Feshbach resonance to tune the interactions between the impurities and the bosons, and we take data in the strongly interacting regime.

  2. Utilizing Surface Sensors to Identify Wake Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Mengying; Hemati, Maziar S.

    2016-11-01

    Marine swimmers often exploit external flow structures to reduce locomotive effort. To achieve this advantage, these swimmers utilize mechanosensory organs on the surface of their bodies to detect hydrodynamic signals from the surrounding fluid, which can then be used to inform the control task. Recently, there has been a growing interest in developing similar flow sensing systems to achieve enhanced propulsive efficiency and maneuverability in human-engineered underwater vehicles. In particular, much attention has been given to the problem of wake sensing; however, these investigations have concentrated on a restricted class of wakes-i.e., Kármán-type vortex streets-whereas more complicated wake structures can arise in practice. In this talk, we will explore the possibility of identifying wake regimes through the use of surface sensors. Potential flow theory is adopted to simulate the interactions of various wakes with a fish-like body. Wakes in different dynamical regimes impart distinct hydrodynamic signatures on the body, which permits these regimes to be distinguished from one another in an automated fashion. Our results can provide guidance for improving flow sensing capabilities in human-engineered systems and hint at how marine swimmers may sense their hydrodynamic surroundings.

  3. Partial accretion regime of accreting millisecond pulsars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eksi, Kazim

    2016-07-01

    The inner parts of the disks around neutron stars in low mass X-ray binaries may become geometrically thick due to inhibition of accretion at the disk mid-plane when the central object is rotating rapidly. In such a case matter inflowing through the disk may keep accreting onto the poles of the neutron star from the parts of the disk away from the disk mid-plane while the matter is propelled at the disk mid-plane. An important ingredient of the evolution of millisecond pulsars is then the fraction of the inflowing matter that can accrete onto the poles in the fast rotation regime depending on the fastness parameter. This ``soft'' propeller regime may be associated with the rapid decay stage observed in the light curves of several accreting millisecond pulsars. To date only a few studies considered the partial accretion regime. By using geometrical arguments we improve the existing studies and test the model by reproducing the lightcurves of millisecond X-ray pulsars via time dependent simulations of disk evolution. We also present analytical solutions that represent disks with partial accretion.

  4. Dynamical Response of Continuum Regime Langmuir Probe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rappaport, H. L.

    2009-11-01

    Probe dynamic response is sometimes used as a way to increase the amount of information obtained from Langmuir probes [1]. In this poster, the effects of frequency dependent probe capacitance and coupling of probe fields to damped Langmuir waves and damped ion acoustic waves are considered. In the continuum regime, with small Debye length to spherical probe radius ratio, the probe DC current vs. voltage characteristic displays a hard saturation at sufficiently large probe potential [2]. In this regime, the sheath thickness varies little with the applied voltage although the plasma response can still be measured. A goal of the present investigation is to show that the probe dynamical response is richer as a result of modulation of sheath thickness or shielding particularly in the larger Debye length to probe radius ratio regime. Inertia inhibits ion response at sufficiently high frequency and deviation from the DC characteristic is shown.[4pt] [1] D. N. Walker, R.F. Fernsler, D.D. Blackwell, and W.E. Amatucci, Phys. Plasmas 15, 123506 (2008).[0pt] [2] E. Baum and R.L. Chapkis, AIAA J. 8, 1073 (1970).

  5. Lubrication regimes in lumbar total disc arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Shaheen, A; Shepherd, D E T

    2007-08-01

    A number of total disc arthroplasty devices have been developed. Some concern has been expressed that wear may be a potential failure mode for these devices, as has been seen with hip arthroplasty. The aim of this paper was to investigate the lubrication regimes that occur in lumbar total disc arthroplasty devices. The disc arthroplasty was modelled as a ball-and-socket joint. Elastohydrodynamic lubrication theory was used to calculate the minimum film thickness of the fluid between the bearing surfaces. The lubrication regime was then determined for different material combinations, size of implant, and trunk velocity. Disc arthroplasties with a metal-polymer or metal-metal material combination operate with a boundary lubrication regime. A ceramic-ceramic material combination has the potential to operate with fluid-film lubrication. Disc arthroplasties with a metal-polymer or metal-metal material combination are likely to generate wear debris. In future, it is worth considering a ceramic-ceramic material combination as this is likely to reduce wear.

  6. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems | Science Inventory ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (US Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps, and multivariate analysis such as nMDS (non-metric Multidimensional Scaling) and cluster analysis. We successfully detect spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change. Use an information theory based method to identify ecological boundaries and compare our results to traditional early warning

  7. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

    PubMed

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  8. Flow topologies in different regimes of premixed turbulent combustion: A direct numerical simulation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wacks, Daniel H.; Chakraborty, Nilanjan; Klein, Markus; Arias, Paul G.; Im, Hong G.

    2016-12-01

    The distributions of flow topologies within the flames representing the corrugated flamelets, thin reaction zones, and broken reaction zone regimes of premixed turbulent combustion are investigated using direct numerical simulation data of statistically planar turbulent H2-air flames with an equivalence ratio ϕ =0.7 . It was found that the diminishing influence of dilatation rate with increasing Karlovitz number has significant influences on the statistical behaviors of the first, second, and third invariants (i.e., P ,Q , and R ) of the velocity gradient tensor. These differences are reflected in the distributions of the flow topologies within the flames considered in this analysis. This has important consequences for those topologies that make dominant contributions to the scalar-turbulence interaction and vortex-stretching terms in the scalar dissipation rate and enstrophy transport equations, respectively. Detailed physical explanations are provided for the observed regime dependences of the flow topologies and their implications on the scalar dissipation rate and enstrophy transport.

  9. Heroin: Statistics and Trends

    MedlinePlus

    ... Naloxone Pain Prevention Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Funding Funding Opportunities Clinical Research Post-Award Concerns General Information Grant & Contract Application ...

  10. Statistical distribution sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, E. S.

    1975-01-01

    Determining the distribution of statistics by sampling was investigated. Characteristic functions, the quadratic regression problem, and the differential equations for the characteristic functions are analyzed.

  11. Hall effect, edge states, and Haldane exclusion statistics in two-dimensional space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, F.; Marchetti, P. A.; Su, Z. B.; Yu, L.

    2015-12-01

    We clarify the relation between two kinds of statistics for particle excitations in planar systems: the braid statistics of anyons and the Haldane exclusion statistics (HES). It is shown nonperturbatively that the HES exists for incompressible anyon liquid in the presence of a Hall response. We also study the statistical properties of a specific quantum anomalous Hall model with Chern-Simons term by perturbation in both compressible and incompressible regimes, where the crucial role of edge states to the HES is shown.

  12. Statistical mechanics of negative temperature states

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Montgomery, D. C.; Joyce, G.

    1973-01-01

    The dynamics of two-dimensional interacting line vortices is identical to that of the two-dimensional electrostatic guiding center plasma. Both are Hamiltonian systems and are therefore susceptible to statistical mechanical treatments. The predictions of the microcanonical ensemble are explored for this system. Interest focuses primarily on the regime of total positive interaction energy, which should be above the Onsager negative temperature threshold. Calculations of the probability distribution for a component by means of the central limit theorem are carried out in the manner of Khinchin. The probability distribution of a component reduced to the usual Gibbs distribution in the regime of positive temperatures, and is still explicitly calculable for negative temperatures. The negative temperature states are neither quiescent nor spatially uniform. Expressions for the temperature are explicitly provided in terms of the total particle energy and particle number. A BBGKY hierarchy can be derived for both temperature regimes. Numerical simulations involving solutions of the equations of motion of 4008 particles are presented.

  13. Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vautard, Robert; Mo, Kingtse C.; Ghil, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Low-frequency variability of large-scale atmospheric dynamics can be represented schematically by a Markov chain of multiple flow regimes. This Markov chain contains useful information for the long-range forecaster, provided that the statistical significance of the associated transition matrix can be reliably tested. Monte Carlo simulation yields a very reliable significance test for the elements of this matrix. The results of this test agree with previously used empirical formulae when each cluster of maps identified as a distinct flow regime is sufficiently large and when they all contain a comparable number of maps. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable way to test the statistical significance of transitions to and from small clusters. It can determine the most likely transitions, as well as the most unlikely ones, with a prescribed level of statistical significance.

  14. Modelling of Turbulent Scalar Fluxes in the Broken Reaction Zones Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Im, Hong G.; Chakraborty, Nilanjan; Klein, Markus; Kasten, Christian; Arias, Paul

    2016-11-01

    The LES filtered species transport equation in turbulent reacting flow simulations contains the unclosed turbulent scalar flux that needs to be modelled. It is well known that the statistical behavior of this term and its alignment characteristics with resolved scalar gradient depend on the relative importance of heat release and turbulent velocity fluctuations. Counter-gradient transport has been reported in several earlier studies where the flames under investigation were located either in the corrugated flamelets or thin reaction zones regime of premixed turbulent combustion. Therefore it is useful to understand the statistical behavior of turbulent scalar fluxes if the flame represents the broken reaction zones regime (BRZR). The present analysis aims to provide improved understanding on this subject through an a-priori analysis of a detailed chemistry database consisting of three freely-propagating statistically planar turbulent H2-air premixed flames representing three different regimes of combustion. Results indicate that heat release effects weaken with increasing Karlovitz number, but that counter-gradient transport can still occur for large LES filter size in the BRZR. Furthermore the behaviour of the flux and in particular its sign are different for reactant and product species. KAUST, EPSRC, KAUST Supercomputing Lab, N8, Archer.

  15. THE DYNAMIC REGIME CONCEPT FOR ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic regimes of ecosystems are multidimensional basis of attraction, characterized by particular species communities and ecosystems processes. Ecosystem patterns and processes rarely respond linerarly to disturbances, and the nonlinear cynamic regime concept offers a more real...

  16. Toward a dynamical understanding of planetary-scale flow regimes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marshall, J.; Molteni, F.

    1993-06-01

    A strategy for diagnosing and interpreting flow regimes that is firmly rooted in dynamical theory is presented and applied to the study of observed and modeled planetary-scale regimes of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Hemisphere.

  17. FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

  18. Explorations in Statistics: Power

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2010-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This fifth installment of "Explorations in Statistics" revisits power, a concept fundamental to the test of a null hypothesis. Power is the probability that we reject the null hypothesis when it is false. Four…

  19. Teaching Statistics without Sadistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forte, James A.

    1995-01-01

    Five steps designed to take anxiety out of statistics for social work students are outlined. First, statistics anxiety is identified as an educational problem. Second, instructional objectives and procedures to achieve them are presented and methods and tools for evaluating the course are explored. Strategies for, and obstacles to, making…

  20. STATSIM: Exercises in Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, David B.; And Others

    A computer-based learning simulation was developed at Florida State University which allows for high interactive responding via a time-sharing terminal for the purpose of demonstrating descriptive and inferential statistics. The statistical simulation (STATSIM) is comprised of four modules--chi square, t, z, and F distribution--and elucidates the…

  1. Understanding Undergraduate Statistical Anxiety

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McKim, Courtney

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand undergraduate students' views of statistics. Results reveal that students with less anxiety have a higher interest in statistics and also believe in their ability to perform well in the course. Also students who have a more positive attitude about the class tend to have a higher belief in their…

  2. Water Quality Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgson, Ted; Andersen, Lyle; Robison-Cox, Jim; Jones, Clain

    2004-01-01

    Water quality experiments, especially the use of macroinvertebrates as indicators of water quality, offer an ideal context for connecting statistics and science. In the STAR program for secondary students and teachers, water quality experiments were also used as a context for teaching statistics. In this article, we trace one activity that uses…

  3. Towards Statistically Undetectable Steganography

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-30

    Statistically Undciectable Steganography 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA9550-08-1-0084 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Prof. Jessica...approved for public release: distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Fundamental asymptotic laws for imperfect steganography ...formats. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Steganography . covert communication, statistical detectability. asymptotic performance, secure pay load, minimum

  4. Explorations in Statistics: Regression

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2011-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This seventh installment of "Explorations in Statistics" explores regression, a technique that estimates the nature of the relationship between two things for which we may only surmise a mechanistic or predictive…

  5. Option Y, Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singer, Arlene

    This guide outlines a one semester Option Y course, which has seven learner objectives. The course is designed to provide students with an introduction to the concerns and methods of statistics, and to equip them to deal with the many statistical matters of importance to society. Topics covered include graphs and charts, collection and…

  6. On Statistical Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huberty, Carl J.

    An approach to statistical testing, which combines Neyman-Pearson hypothesis testing and Fisher significance testing, is recommended. The use of P-values in this approach is discussed in some detail. The author also discusses some problems which are often found in introductory statistics textbooks. The problems involve the definitions of…

  7. Statistics and Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Croarkin, M. Carroll

    2001-01-01

    For more than 50 years, the Statistical Engineering Division (SED) has been instrumental in the success of a broad spectrum of metrology projects at NBS/NIST. This paper highlights fundamental contributions of NBS/NIST statisticians to statistics and to measurement science and technology. Published methods developed by SED staff, especially during the early years, endure as cornerstones of statistics not only in metrology and standards applications, but as data-analytic resources used across all disciplines. The history of statistics at NBS/NIST began with the formation of what is now the SED. Examples from the first five decades of the SED illustrate the critical role of the division in the successful resolution of a few of the highly visible, and sometimes controversial, statistical studies of national importance. A review of the history of major early publications of the division on statistical methods, design of experiments, and error analysis and uncertainty is followed by a survey of several thematic areas. The accompanying examples illustrate the importance of SED in the history of statistics, measurements and standards: calibration and measurement assurance, interlaboratory tests, development of measurement methods, Standard Reference Materials, statistical computing, and dissemination of measurement technology. A brief look forward sketches the expanding opportunity and demand for SED statisticians created by current trends in research and development at NIST. PMID:27500023

  8. [Statistics quantum satis].

    PubMed

    Pestana, Dinis

    2013-01-01

    Statistics is a privileged tool in building knowledge from information, since the purpose is to extract from a sample limited information conclusions to the whole population. The pervasive use of statistical software (that always provides an answer, the question being adequate or not), and the absence of statistics to confer a scientific flavour to so much bad science, has had a pernicious effect on some disbelief on statistical research. Would Lord Rutherford be alive today, it is almost certain that he would not condemn the use of statistics in research, as he did in the dawn of the 20th century. But he would indeed urge everyone to use statistics quantum satis, since to use bad data, too many data, and statistics to enquire on irrelevant questions, is a source of bad science, namely because with too many data we can establish statistical significance of irrelevant results. This is an important point that addicts of evidence based medicine should be aware of, since the meta analysis of two many data will inevitably establish senseless results.

  9. Reform in Statistical Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huck, Schuyler W.

    2007-01-01

    Two questions are considered in this article: (a) What should professionals in school psychology do in an effort to stay current with developments in applied statistics? (b) What should they do with their existing knowledge to move from surface understanding of statistics to deep understanding? Written for school psychologists who have completed…

  10. Deconstructing Statistical Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snell, Joel

    2014-01-01

    Using a very complex statistical analysis and research method for the sake of enhancing the prestige of an article or making a new product or service legitimate needs to be monitored and questioned for accuracy. 1) The more complicated the statistical analysis, and research the fewer the number of learned readers can understand it. This adds a…

  11. Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

    PubMed

    Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

    2015-10-01

    Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced.

  12. Applied Statistics with SPSS

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huizingh, Eelko K. R. E.

    2007-01-01

    Accessibly written and easy to use, "Applied Statistics Using SPSS" is an all-in-one self-study guide to SPSS and do-it-yourself guide to statistics. What is unique about Eelko Huizingh's approach is that this book is based around the needs of undergraduate students embarking on their own research project, and its self-help style is designed to…

  13. Overhead Image Statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Vijayaraj, Veeraraghavan; Cheriyadat, Anil M; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Vatsavai, Raju; Bright, Eddie A

    2008-01-01

    Statistical properties of high-resolution overhead images representing different land use categories are analyzed using various local and global statistical image properties based on the shape of the power spectrum, image gradient distributions, edge co-occurrence, and inter-scale wavelet coefficient distributions. The analysis was performed on a database of high-resolution (1 meter) overhead images representing a multitude of different downtown, suburban, commercial, agricultural and wooded exemplars. Various statistical properties relating to these image categories and their relationship are discussed. The categorical variations in power spectrum contour shapes, the unique gradient distribution characteristics of wooded categories, the similarity in edge co-occurrence statistics for overhead and natural images, and the unique edge co-occurrence statistics of downtown categories are presented in this work. Though previous work on natural image statistics has showed some of the unique characteristics for different categories, the relationships for overhead images are not well understood. The statistical properties of natural images were used in previous studies to develop prior image models, to predict and index objects in a scene and to improve computer vision models. The results from our research findings can be used to augment and adapt computer vision algorithms that rely on prior image statistics to process overhead images, calibrate the performance of overhead image analysis algorithms, and derive features for better discrimination of overhead image categories.

  14. Effect of Coulombic friction on spatial displacement statistics.

    PubMed

    Menzel, Andreas M; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2011-07-01

    The phenomenon of Coulombic friction enters the stochastic description of dry friction between two solids and the statistic characterization of vibrating granular media. Here we analyze the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation including both velocity and spatial components, exhibiting a formal connection to a quantum mechanical harmonic oscillator in the presence of a delta potential. Numerical solutions for the resulting spatial displacement statistics show a crossover from exponential to Gaussian displacement statistics. We identify a transient intermediate regime that exhibits multiscaling properties arising from the contribution of Coulombic friction. The possible role of these effects during observations in diffusion experiments is briefly discussed.

  15. Landscape-scale forest disturbance regimes in southern Peruvian Amazonia.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Doreen S; Hill, Ross A; Hopkinson, Chris; Baker, Timothy R

    2013-10-01

    Landscape-scale gap-size frequency distributions in tropical forests are a poorly studied but key ecological variable. Currently, a scale gap currently exists between local-scale field-based studies and those employing regional-scale medium-resolution satellite data. Data at landscape scales but of fine resolution would, however, facilitate investigation into a range of ecological questions relating to gap dynamics. These include whether canopy disturbances captured in permanent sample plots (PSPs) are representative of those in their surrounding landscape, and whether disturbance regimes vary with forest type. Here, therefore, we employ airborne LiDAR data captured over 142.5 km2 of mature, swamp, and regenerating forests in southeast Peru to assess the landscape-scale disturbance at a sampling resolution of up to 2 m. We find that this landscape is characterized by large numbers of small gaps; large disturbance events are insignificant and infrequent. Of the total number of gaps that are 2 m2 or larger in area, just 0.45% were larger than 100 m2, with a power-law exponent (alpha) value of the gap-size frequency distribution of 2.22. However, differences in disturbance regimes are seen among different forest types, with a significant difference in the alpha value of the gap-size frequency distribution observed for the swamp/regenerating forests compared with the mature forests at higher elevations. Although a relatively small area of the total forest of this region was investigated here, this study presents an unprecedented assessment of this landscape with respect to its gap dynamics. This is particularly pertinent given the range of forest types present in the landscape and the differences observed. The coupling of detailed insights into forest properties and growth provided by PSPs with the broader statistics of disturbance events using remote sensing is recommended as a strong basis for scaling-up estimates of landscape and regional-scale carbon balance.

  16. River Flow Regimes and Effective Discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Basso, S.; Sprocati, R.; Frascati, A.; Marani, M.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

    2015-12-01

    The concept of effective discharge is widespread in geomorphology and river engineering and restoration. For example, it is used to design the most stable channel configuration, to estimate sedimentation rate and lifespan of reservoirs and to characterize the hydrologic forcing in models studying long-term evolution of rivers. Accordingly, the effective discharge has been the focus of countless empirical, theoretical and numerical studies, which found it to vary among catchments as a function of climate, landscape and river morphology, type of transport (dissolved, suspended or bedload), and of streamflow variability. The heterogeneity of the effective discharge values observed in different catchments challenges a thorough understanding of its pivotal drivers, and a consistent framework which explains observations carried out in different geographic areas is still lacking. In the present work, the observed diversity is explained in terms of the underlying heterogeneity of river flow regimes, by linking effective discharge to attributes of the sediment rating curve and to streamflow variability, as resulting from climatic and landscape drivers. An analytic expression of the effective ratio (i.e. the ratio between effective discharge and mean streamflow) is provided, which captures observed values of effective discharge for suspended sediment transport in a set of catchments of the continental United States. The framework disentangles hydrologic and landscape controls on effective discharge, and highlights distinct effective ratios of persistent and erratic hydrologic regimes (respectively characterized by low and high flow variability), attributable to intrinsically different streamflow dynamics. Clusters of river catchments characterized by similar streamflow dynamics can be identified. The framework provides an opportunity for first-order estimates of effective discharge in rivers belonging to different areas, based on the type of flow regime.

  17. The discrete regime of flame propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew

    The propagation of laminar dust flames in iron dust clouds was studied in a low-gravity envi-ronment on-board a parabolic flight aircraft. The elimination of buoyancy-induced convection and particle settling permitted measurements of fundamental combustion parameters such as the burning velocity and the flame quenching distance over a wide range of particle sizes and in different gaseous mixtures. The discrete regime of flame propagation was observed by substitut-ing nitrogen present in air with xenon, an inert gas with a significantly lower heat conductivity. Flame propagation in the discrete regime is controlled by the heat transfer between neighbor-ing particles, rather than by the particle burning rate used by traditional continuum models of heterogeneous flames. The propagation mechanism of discrete flames depends on the spa-tial distribution of particles, and thus such flames are strongly influenced by local fluctuations in the fuel concentration. Constant pressure laminar dust flames were observed inside 70 cm long, 5 cm diameter Pyrex tubes. Equally-spaced plate assemblies forming rectangular chan-nels were placed inside each tube to determine the quenching distance defined as the minimum channel width through which a flame can successfully propagate. High-speed video cameras were used to measure the flame speed and a fiber optic spectrometer was used to measure the flame temperature. Experimental results were compared with predictions obtained from a numerical model of a three-dimensional flame developed to capture both the discrete nature and the random distribution of particles in the flame. Though good qualitative agreement was obtained between model predictions and experimental observations, residual g-jitters and the short reduced-gravity periods prevented further investigations of propagation limits in the dis-crete regime. The full exploration of the discrete flame phenomenon would require high-quality, long duration reduced gravity environment

  18. Laboratory Exploration of Multiple Zonal Jet Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, C. A.; Speer, K. G.; Griffiths, R. W.

    2012-12-01

    The differentially heated, rotating annulus has classically been used to study wave interactions within a single, baroclinic jet. At high rotation rates, the baroclinic instability of the flow leads to a transition to a turbulent, eddy-dominated regime. In the presence of a topographic beta effect, the flow has been observed to produce multiple, meandering zonal jets that are qualitatively similar to those found in planetary atmospheres and in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Our study builds on previous annulus experiments [1] by making observations further within this new regime. We observe with PIV and other techniques how the structure of the flow responds to changes in various parameters such as tank geometry, gradient in the Coriolis parameter, rotation rate, and differential thermal forcing. By not employing the more typical direct forcing of small scales, but by applying a large scale forcing over the annulus gap width, this study allows the varying effects of eddy scale selection, enstrophy cascade, etc. to naturally generate flow that more closely resembles planetary atmospheres and the ACC. We seek nondimensional parameters that significantly control zonation in a real fluid. These observations will provide a metric for the comparison of various theoretical models for multiple zonal jet formation. Other properties of the jets, such as their migration, meandering, bifurcation, and merging, can also be observed in an idealized situation and compared to numerical simulations. Ultimately, this will aid the testing and development of sub-grid-scale parameterizations for the multiple zonal jet regime that remain robust in the face of multiple forcing parameters. [1] Wordsworth, R. D., Read, P. L., & Yamazaki, Y. H. (2008). Turbulence, waves, and jets in a differentially heated rotating annulus experiment Physics of Fluids, 20(12), 126602.Streak photograph of suspended particles visualizing the flow representative of multiple zonal jets

  19. Potential vorticity regimes over East Asia during winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Wang, Bin; Wright, Jonathon S.; Yang, Zifan; Ma, Wenqian

    2017-02-01

    Nine potential vorticity (PV) regimes over East Asia are identified by applying a Self-Organizing Map and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification regime analysis to the daily PV reanalysis fields on the 300 K isentropic surface for December-March 1948-2014. According to the surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, these nine regimes are further classified into three classes, i.e., cold class (three regimes), warm class (four regimes), and neutral class (two regimes). The PV-based East Asian winter monsoon index (EAWMI) is used to study the relationship between PV distributions and the temperature anomalies. The magnitude of cold (warm) anomalies over the land areas of East Asia increases (decreases) quasi-linearly with the EAWMI. Regression analysis reveals that cold temperature anomalies preferentially occur when the EAWMI exceeds a threshold at ˜0.2 PVU (where 1 PVU ≡ 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1). PV inversion uncovers the mechanisms behind the relationships between the PV regimes and surface temperature anomalies and reveals that cold (warm) PV regimes are associated with significant warming (cooling) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On average, cold regimes have longer durations than warm regimes. Interclass transition probabilities are much higher for paths from warm/neutral regimes to cold regimes than for paths from cold regimes to warm/neutral regimes. Besides, intraclass transitions are rare within the warm or neutral regimes. The PV regime analysis provides insight into the causes of severe cold spells over East Asia, with blocking circulation patterns identified as the primary factor in initiating and maintaining these cold spells.

  20. Imperfect relativistic mirrors in the quantum regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mendonça, J. T.; Serbeto, A.; Galvão, R. M. O.

    2014-05-15

    The collective backscattering of intense laser radiation by energetic electron beams is considered in the relativistic quantum regime. Exact solutions for the radiation field are obtained, for arbitrary electron pulse shapes and laser intensities. The electron beams act as imperfect nonlinear mirrors on the incident laser radiation. This collective backscattering process can lead to the development of new sources of ultra-short pulse radiation in the gamma-ray domain. Numerical examples show that, for plausible experimental conditions, intense pulses of gamma-rays, due to the double Doppler shift of the harmonics of the incident laser radiation, can be produced using the available technology, with durations less than 1 as.

  1. Efficiency of Rectification: Reversible vs. Irreversible Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sokolov, I. M.

    2002-11-01

    Both man-made locomotive devices and molecular motors use gears to transform a reciprocating motion into a directed one. One of the most common gears is a rectifier, a mechanically irreversible appliance. The maximal energetic efficiency of an isothermic gear is bounded by unity, as a consequence of the Second Law. However, approaching this ideal efficiency does not imply approaching reversibility. We discuss what properties of a rectifier mostly influence the transduction efficiency and show that an appliance which locks under backward force is just the one which can approach the ideal efficiency either in the reversible or in the irreversible regime.

  2. Bose Polarons in the Strongly Interacting Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Ming-Guang; Van de Graaff, Michael J.; Kedar, Dhruv; Corson, John P.; Cornell, Eric A.; Jin, Deborah S.

    2016-07-01

    When an impurity is immersed in a Bose-Einstein condensate, impurity-boson interactions are expected to dress the impurity into a quasiparticle, the Bose polaron. We superimpose an ultracold atomic gas of 87Rb with a much lower density gas of fermionic 40 impurities. Through the use of a Feshbach resonance and radio-frequency spectroscopy, we characterize the energy, spectral width, and lifetime of the resultant polaron on both the attractive and the repulsive branches in the strongly interacting regime. The width of the polaron in the attractive branch is narrow compared to its binding energy, even as the two-body scattering length diverges.

  3. Ultracold Molecules: Physics in the Quantum Regime

    SciTech Connect

    Doyle, John

    2014-11-17

    Our research encompasses approaches to the trapping of diatomic molecules at low temperature plus the cooling and detection of polyatomic molecules in the kelvin temperature regime. We have cooled and trapped CaF and/or CaH molecules, loaded directly from a molecular beam. As part of this work, we are continuing to develop an important trapping technique, optical loading from a buffer-gas beam. This method was invented in our lab. We are also studying cold polyatomic molecules and their interactions with cold atoms.

  4. Global oscillation regime change by gated inhibition.

    PubMed

    Romeo, August; Supèr, Hans

    2016-10-01

    The role of sensory inputs in the modelling of synchrony regimes is exhibited by means of networks of spiking cells where the relative strength of the inhibitory interaction is controlled by the activation of a linear unit working as a gating variable. Adaptation to stimulus size is determined by the value of a changing length scale, modelled by the time-varying radius of a circular receptive field. In this set-up, 'consolidation' time intervals relevant to attentional effects are shown to depend on the dynamics governing the evolution of the introduced length scale.

  5. The relationship between void waves and flow regime transition

    SciTech Connect

    Lahey, R.T. Jr.; Drew, D.A.; Kalkach-Navarro, S.; Park, J.W.

    1992-12-31

    The results of an extensive experimental and analytical study on the relationship between void waves and flow regime transition are presented, in particular, the bubbly/slug flow regime transition. It is shown that void wave instability signals a flow regime transition.

  6. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  7. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United...

  8. Statistical approach of weakly nonlinear ablative Rayleigh-Taylor instability

    SciTech Connect

    Garnier, J.; Masse, L.

    2005-06-15

    A weakly nonlinear model is proposed for the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in presence of ablation and thermal transport. The nonlinear effects for a single-mode disturbance are computed, included the nonlinear correction to the exponential growth of the fundamental modulation. Mode coupling in the spectrum of a multimode disturbance is thoroughly analyzed by a statistical approach. The exponential growth of the linear regime is shown to be reduced by the nonlinear mode coupling. The saturation amplitude is around 0.1{lambda} for long wavelengths, but higher for short instable wavelengths in the ablative regime.

  9. Statistics at a glance.

    PubMed

    Ector, Hugo

    2010-12-01

    I still remember my first book on statistics: "Elementary statistics with applications in medicine and the biological sciences" by Frederick E. Croxton. For me, it has been the start of pursuing understanding statistics in daily life and in medical practice. It was the first volume in a long row of books. In his introduction, Croxton pretends that"nearly everyone involved in any aspect of medicine needs to have some knowledge of statistics". The reality is that for many clinicians, statistics are limited to a "P < 0.05 = ok". I do not blame my colleagues who omit the paragraph on statistical methods. They have never had the opportunity to learn concise and clear descriptions of the key features. I have experienced how some authors can describe difficult methods in a well understandable language. Others fail completely. As a teacher, I tell my students that life is impossible without a basic knowledge of statistics. This feeling has resulted in an annual seminar of 90 minutes. This tutorial is the summary of this seminar. It is a summary and a transcription of the best pages I have detected.

  10. Pulse regime in formation of fractal fibers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, B. M.

    2016-11-01

    The pulse regime of vaporization of a bulk metal located in a buffer gas is analyzed as a method of generation of metal atoms under the action of a plasma torch or a laser beam. Subsequently these atoms are transformed into solid nanoclusters, fractal aggregates and then into fractal fibers if the growth process proceeds in an external electric field. We are guided by metals in which transitions between s and d-electrons of their atoms are possible, since these metals are used as catalysts and filters in interaction with gas flows. The resistance of metal fractal structures to a gas flow is evaluated that allows one to find optimal parameters of a fractal structure for gas flow propagation through it. The thermal regime of interaction between a plasma pulse or a laser beam and a metal surface is analyzed. It is shown that the basic energy from an external source is consumed on a bulk metal heating, and the efficiency of atom evaporation from the metal surface, that is the ratio of energy fluxes for vaporization and heating, is 10-3-10-4 for transient metals under consideration. A typical energy flux ( 106 W/cm2), a typical surface temperature ( 3000 K), and a typical pulse duration ( 1 μs) provide a sufficient amount of evaporated atoms to generate fractal fibers such that each molecule of a gas flow collides with the skeleton of fractal fibers many times.

  11. Variety of synchronous regimes in neuronal ensembles.

    PubMed

    Komarov, M A; Osipov, G V; Suykens, J A K

    2008-09-01

    We consider a Hodgkin-Huxley-type model of oscillatory activity in neurons of the snail Helix pomatia. This model has a distinctive feature: It demonstrates multistability in oscillatory and silent modes that is typical for the thalamocortical neurons. A single neuron cell can demonstrate a variety of oscillatory activity: Regular and chaotic spiking and bursting behavior. We study collective phenomena in small and large arrays of nonidentical cells coupled by models of electrical and chemical synapses. Two single elements coupled by electrical coupling show different types of synchronous behavior, in particular in-phase and antiphase synchronous regimes. In an ensemble of three inhibitory synaptically coupled elements, the phenomenon of sequential synchronous dynamics is observed. We study the synchronization phenomena in the chain of nonidentical neurons at different oscillatory behavior coupled with electrical and chemical synapses. Various regimes of phase synchronization are observed: (i) Synchronous regular and chaotic spiking; (ii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting; and (iii) synchronous regular and chaotic bursting with different numbers of spikes inside the bursts. We detect and study the effect of collective synchronous burst generation due to the cluster formation and the oscillatory death.

  12. Informal Statistics Help Desk

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Young, M.; Koslovsky, M.; Schaefer, Caroline M.; Feiveson, A. H.

    2017-01-01

    Back by popular demand, the JSC Biostatistics Laboratory and LSAH statisticians are offering an opportunity to discuss your statistical challenges and needs. Take the opportunity to meet the individuals offering expert statistical support to the JSC community. Join us for an informal conversation about any questions you may have encountered with issues of experimental design, analysis, or data visualization. Get answers to common questions about sample size, repeated measures, statistical assumptions, missing data, multiple testing, time-to-event data, and when to trust the results of your analyses.

  13. Commentary: statistics for biomarkers.

    PubMed

    Lovell, David P

    2012-05-01

    This short commentary discusses Biomarkers' requirements for the reporting of statistical analyses in submitted papers. It is expected that submitters will follow the general instructions of the journal, the more detailed guidance given by the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors, the specific guidelines developed by the EQUATOR network, and those of various specialist groups. Biomarkers expects that the study design and subsequent statistical analyses are clearly reported and that the data reported can be made available for independent assessment. The journal recognizes that there is continuing debate about different approaches to statistical science. Biomarkers appreciates that the field continues to develop rapidly and encourages the use of new methodologies.

  14. LED champing: statistically blessed?

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhuo

    2015-06-10

    LED champing (smart mixing of individual LEDs to match the desired color and lumens) and color mixing strategies have been widely used to maintain the color consistency of light engines. Light engines with champed LEDs can easily achieve the color consistency of a couple MacAdam steps with widely distributed LEDs to begin with. From a statistical point of view, the distributions for the color coordinates and the flux after champing are studied. The related statistical parameters are derived, which facilitate process improvements such as Six Sigma and are instrumental to statistical quality control for mass productions.

  15. Passive scalar scaling regimes in a rapidly decorrelating turbulent flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kramer, Peter Roland

    This thesis is concerned with some issues pertaining to the small scale structure of a passive scalar field advected by a turbulent flow, and driven by external stochastic pumping and/or interaction with a background passive scalar gradient. We analyze and apply two previously developed simplified mathematical models: the Simple Shear Model of Andrew Majda and Marco Avellaneda, and the Rapid Decorrelation in Time (RDT) Model of Robert Kraichnan. The fundamental representation of the passive scalar statistics in these models is presented from a consideration of Lagrangian tracer trajectories. This permits an easy extension of the Simple Shear Model to incorporate driving, and an alternative derivation of the governing mathematical equations in the RDT Model. Using a Simple Shear Poisson Blob Model of Majda and Avellaneda, we provide an example in which the correlation time of the velocity field becomes very small, but the passive scalar statistics do not converge to those of the RDT model. The RDT Model therefore only describes passive scalar advection for a velocity field with short correlation time in a certain sense. We next apply the RDT Model to investigate scaling regimes in the spectral density of a random passive scalar field advected by a turbulent flow. First, we rigorously derive three scaling regimes, and test some physical theories against these exact results. We find most predictions to succeed, but indicate an apparent gap in the reasoning behind the inertial-diffusive theory of Carl Gibson. Next, motivated by a recent experimental controversy, we consider whether, in the RDT Model, anisotropies in the external pumping could disrupt the k-1 viscous- convective scaling law at high Schmidt number. We find that the k-1 law persists. Finally, we test two asymptotic procedures, the Intermediate Asymptotic (IA) approach as described by G. I. Barenblatt and the Renormalization Group (RG) method of Lin-Yuan Chen et al. on an exactly solvable ODE arising in

  16. Distinct transport regimes for two elastically coupled molecular motors.

    PubMed

    Berger, Florian; Keller, Corina; Klumpp, Stefan; Lipowsky, Reinhard

    2012-05-18

    Cooperative cargo transport by two molecular motors involves an elastic motor-motor coupling, which can reduce the motors' velocity and/or enhance their unbinding from the filament. We show theoretically that these interference effects lead, in general, to four distinct transport regimes. In addition to a weak coupling regime, kinesin and dynein motors are found to exhibit a strong coupling and an enhanced unbinding regime, whereas myosin motors are predicted to attain a reduced velocity regime. All of these regimes, which we derive by explicit calculations and general time scale arguments, can be explored experimentally by varying the elastic coupling strength.

  17. Option pricing with regime switching by trinomial tree method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuen, Fei Lung; Yang, Hailiang

    2010-02-01

    We present a fast and simple tree model to price simple and exotic options in Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) with multi-regime. We modify the trinomial tree model of Boyle (1986) [12] by controlling the risk neutral probability measure in different regime states to ensure that the tree model can accommodate the data of all different regimes at the same time preserving its combining tree structure. In MRSM, the market might not be complete, therefore we provide some ideas and discussions on managing the regime switching risk in support of our results.

  18. Playing at Statistical Mechanics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Paul M.; And Others

    1974-01-01

    Discussed are the applications of counting techniques of a sorting game to distributions and concepts in statistical mechanics. Included are the following distributions: Fermi-Dirac, Bose-Einstein, and most probable. (RH)

  19. Hemophilia Data and Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Hemophilia Women Healthcare Providers Partners Media Policy Makers Data & Statistics Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook ... at a very young age. Based on CDC data, the median age at diagnosis is 36 months ...

  20. Cooperative Learning in Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keeler, Carolyn M.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Formal use of cooperative learning techniques proved effective in improving student performance and retention in a freshman level statistics course. Lectures interspersed with group activities proved effective in increasing conceptual understanding and overall class performance. (11 references) (Author)

  1. Statistics of the sagas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richfield, Jon; bookfeller

    2016-07-01

    In reply to Ralph Kenna and Pádraig Mac Carron's feature article “Maths meets myths” in which they describe how they are using techniques from statistical physics to characterize the societies depicted in ancient Icelandic sagas.

  2. Elements of Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grégoire, G.

    2016-05-01

    This chapter is devoted to two objectives. The first one is to answer the request expressed by attendees of the first Astrostatistics School (Annecy, October 2013) to be provided with an elementary vademecum of statistics that would facilitate understanding of the given courses. In this spirit we recall very basic notions, that is definitions and properties that we think sufficient to benefit from courses given in the Astrostatistical School. Thus we give briefly definitions and elementary properties on random variables and vectors, distributions, estimation and tests, maximum likelihood methodology. We intend to present basic ideas in a hopefully comprehensible way. We do not try to give a rigorous presentation, and due to the place devoted to this chapter, can cover only a rather limited field of statistics. The second aim is to focus on some statistical tools that are useful in classification: basic introduction to Bayesian statistics, maximum likelihood methodology, Gaussian vectors and Gaussian mixture models.

  3. Plague Maps and Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Plague in the United States Plague was first introduced ... per year in the United States: 1900-2012. Plague Worldwide Plague epidemics have occurred in Africa, Asia, ...

  4. Understanding Solar Flare Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheatland, M. S.

    2005-12-01

    A review is presented of work aimed at understanding solar flare statistics, with emphasis on the well known flare power-law size distribution. Although avalanche models are perhaps the favoured model to describe flare statistics, their physical basis is unclear, and they are divorced from developing ideas in large-scale reconnection theory. An alternative model, aimed at reconciling large-scale reconnection models with solar flare statistics, is revisited. The solar flare waiting-time distribution has also attracted recent attention. Observed waiting-time distributions are described, together with what they might tell us about the flare phenomenon. Finally, a practical application of flare statistics to flare prediction is described in detail, including the results of a year of automated (web-based) predictions from the method.

  5. Titanic: A Statistical Exploration.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Takis, Sandra L.

    1999-01-01

    Uses the available data about the Titanic's passengers to interest students in exploring categorical data and the chi-square distribution. Describes activities incorporated into a statistics class and gives additional resources for collecting information about the Titanic. (ASK)

  6. Purposeful Statistical Investigations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Day, Lorraine

    2014-01-01

    Lorraine Day provides us with a great range of statistical investigations using various resources such as maths300 and TinkerPlots. Each of the investigations link mathematics to students' lives and provide engaging and meaningful contexts for mathematical inquiry.

  7. Boosted Statistical Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Testa, Massimo

    2015-08-01

    Starting with the basic principles of Relativistic Quantum Mechanics, we give a rigorous, but completely elementary proof of the relation between fundamental observables of a statistical system, when measured within two inertial reference frames, related by a Lorentz transformation.

  8. How Statistics "Excel" Online.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chao, Faith; Davis, James

    2000-01-01

    Discusses the use of Microsoft Excel software and provides examples of its use in an online statistics course at Golden Gate University in the areas of randomness and probability, sampling distributions, confidence intervals, and regression analysis. (LRW)

  9. Statistical-dynamical modeling of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa, J. F.; Fragoso, M.; Mendes, S.; Corte-Real, J.; Santos, J. A.

    2013-10-01

    The present study employs a dataset of cloud-to-ground discharges over Portugal, collected by the Portuguese lightning detection network in the period of 2003-2009, to identify dynamically coherent lightning regimes in Portugal and to implement a statistical-dynamical modeling of the daily discharges over the country. For this purpose, the high-resolution MERRA reanalysis is used. Three lightning regimes are then identified for Portugal: WREG, WREM and SREG. WREG is a typical cold-core cut-off low. WREM is connected to strong frontal systems driven by remote low pressure systems at higher latitudes over the North Atlantic. SREG is a combination of an inverted trough and a mid-tropospheric cold-core nearby Portugal. The statistical-dynamical modeling is based on logistic regressions (statistical component) developed for each regime separately (dynamical component). It is shown that the strength of the lightning activity (either strong or weak) for each regime is consistently modeled by a set of suitable dynamical predictors (65-70% of efficiency). The difference of the equivalent potential temperature in the 700-500 hPa layer is the best predictor for the three regimes, while the best 4-layer lifted index is still important for all regimes, but with much weaker significance. Six other predictors are more suitable for a specific regime. For the purpose of validating the modeling approach, a regional-scale climate model simulation is carried out under a very intense lightning episode.

  10. Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Cointegration and causal linkages among five different fertilizer markets are investigated during low and high market regimes. The database includes prices of rock phosphate (RP), triple super phosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and potassium chloride (PC). It is found that fertilizer markets are closely linked to each other during low and high regimes; and, particularly during high regime (after 2007 international financial crisis). In addition, there is no evidence of bidirectional linear relationship between markets during low and high regime time periods. Furthermore, all significant linkages are only unidirectional. Moreover, some causality effects have emerged during high regime. Finally, the effect of an impulse during high regime time period persists longer and is stronger than the effect of an impulse during low regime time period (before 2007 international financial crisis).

  11. Statistics of dislocation pinning at localized obstacles

    SciTech Connect

    Dutta, A.; Bhattacharya, M. Barat, P.

    2014-10-14

    Pinning of dislocations at nanosized obstacles like precipitates, voids, and bubbles is a crucial mechanism in the context of phenomena like hardening and creep. The interaction between such an obstacle and a dislocation is often studied at fundamental level by means of analytical tools, atomistic simulations, and finite element methods. Nevertheless, the information extracted from such studies cannot be utilized to its maximum extent on account of insufficient information about the underlying statistics of this process comprising a large number of dislocations and obstacles in a system. Here, we propose a new statistical approach, where the statistics of pinning of dislocations by idealized spherical obstacles is explored by taking into account the generalized size-distribution of the obstacles along with the dislocation density within a three-dimensional framework. Starting with a minimal set of material parameters, the framework employs the method of geometrical statistics with a few simple assumptions compatible with the real physical scenario. The application of this approach, in combination with the knowledge of fundamental dislocation-obstacle interactions, has successfully been demonstrated for dislocation pinning at nanovoids in neutron irradiated type 316-stainless steel in regard to the non-conservative motion of dislocations. An interesting phenomenon of transition from rare pinning to multiple pinning regimes with increasing irradiation temperature is revealed.

  12. Power-law statistics and universal scaling in the absence of criticality.

    PubMed

    Touboul, Jonathan; Destexhe, Alain

    2017-01-01

    Critical states are sometimes identified experimentally through power-law statistics or universal scaling functions. We show here that such features naturally emerge from networks in self-sustained irregular regimes away from criticality. In these regimes, statistical physics theory of large interacting systems predict a regime where the nodes have independent and identically distributed dynamics. We thus investigated the statistics of a system in which units are replaced by independent stochastic surrogates and found the same power-law statistics, indicating that these are not sufficient to establish criticality. We rather suggest that these are universal features of large-scale networks when considered macroscopically. These results put caution on the interpretation of scaling laws found in nature.

  13. Power-law statistics and universal scaling in the absence of criticality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Touboul, Jonathan; Destexhe, Alain

    2017-01-01

    Critical states are sometimes identified experimentally through power-law statistics or universal scaling functions. We show here that such features naturally emerge from networks in self-sustained irregular regimes away from criticality. In these regimes, statistical physics theory of large interacting systems predict a regime where the nodes have independent and identically distributed dynamics. We thus investigated the statistics of a system in which units are replaced by independent stochastic surrogates and found the same power-law statistics, indicating that these are not sufficient to establish criticality. We rather suggest that these are universal features of large-scale networks when considered macroscopically. These results put caution on the interpretation of scaling laws found in nature.

  14. Stable operating regime for traveling wave devices

    DOEpatents

    Carlsten, Bruce E.

    2000-01-01

    Autophase stability is provided for a traveling wave device (TWD) electron beam for amplifying an RF electromagnetic wave in walls defining a waveguide for said electromagnetic wave. An off-axis electron beam is generated at a selected energy and has an energy noise inherently arising from electron gun. The off-axis electron beam is introduced into the waveguide. The off-axis electron beam is introduced into the waveguide at a second radius. The waveguide structure is designed to obtain a selected detuning of the electron beam. The off-axis electron beam has a velocity and the second radius to place the electron beam at a selected distance from the walls defining the waveguide, wherein changes in a density of the electron beam due to the RF electromagnetic wave are independent of the energy of the electron beam to provide a concomitant stable operating regime relative to the energy noise.

  15. Dynamic Recrystallization: The Dynamic Deformation Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murr, L. E.; Pizaña, C.

    2007-11-01

    Severe plastic deformation (PD), especially involving high strain rates (>103 s 1), occurs through solid-state flow, which is accommodated by dynamic recrystallization (DRX), either in a continuous or discontinuous mode. This flow can be localized in shear instability zones (or adiabatic shear bands (ASBs)) with dimensions smaller than 5 μ, or can include large volumes with flow zone dimensions exceeding centimeters. This article illustrates these microstructural features using optical and electron metallography to examine a host of dynamic deformation examples: shaped charge jet formation, high-velocity and hypervelocity impact crater formation, rod penetration into thick targets (which includes rod and target DRX flow and mixing), large projectile-induced target plug formation and failure, explosive welding, and friction-stir welding and processing. The DRX is shown to be a universal mechanism that accommodates solid-state flow in extreme (or severe) PD regimes.

  16. Diffusive Transport Properties Across Coupling Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dharuman, G.; Murillo, M. S.; Verboncoeur, J.; Christlieb, A.

    2014-10-01

    Transport properties are poorly known across coupling regimes, therefore understanding them is of importance for theoretical and practical reasons. A useful tool is an ultracold plasma system because of the experimental capability to tune the system to attain Coulomb coupling Γ ranging from 0.1 to 1 to 10 with the screening parameter κ ranging from 0 to 4 to 8, spanning the regions of the phase diagram from weak to moderate to strongly coupled and screened systems. Strong coupling is possible if Disorder Induced Heating is mitigated which requires a correlated initial ion state. Of particular interest is Rydberg blockaded gas of ultracold atoms where the local blockade effect results in correlations. Predictions of higher coupling in ultracold plasma created from a Rydberg blockaded gas have been reported. In this work we examine the diffusive transport properties of ultracold plasma system using molecular dynamics simulations for experimentally realizable values of Γ and κ as discussed above.

  17. Evolution of the water regime of Phobos

    SciTech Connect

    Fanale, F.P.; Salvail, J.R. )

    1990-12-01

    In the present model of Phobos water regime evolution, a time-dependent solar insolation is influenced by both decreasing solar output over geologic time and the Mars and Phobos cycles of eccentricity and obliquity, which vary over 100,000-1,000,000 year time scales. The results presented address model cases which assume (1) a homogeneous distribution of water ice, and (2) a driving of water ice toward the surface by the internal thermal gradient near the poles. A two-dimensional model is used to compute temperatures, heat and vapor fluxes, and ice removal/deposition rates, for the case of uniform ice distribution throughout Phobos. The results obtained indicate that a substantial amount of vapor is produced within 1 km of the surface. 15 refs.

  18. Capillary underwater discharges in repetitive pulse regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Baerdemaeker, F.; Monte, M.; Leys, C.

    2004-03-01

    In this study a capillary underwater discharge, that is sustained with AC (50 Hz) voltages up to 7.5 kV, is investigated. In a capillary discharge scheme, the current is, at some point along its path between two submerged electrodes, flowing through a narrow elongated bore in a dielectric material. When the current density is sufficiently high, local boiling and subsequent vapour breakdown results in the formation of a plasma within this capillary. At the same time the capillary emits an intense jet of vapour bubbles. Time-dependent electrical current, voltage and light emission curves are recorded for discharges in solutions of NaCl in distilled water and reveal different discharge regimes, depending on the conductivity and the excitation voltage, ranging from repetitive microsecond discharge pulses to a quasi-continuous discharge with a glow-like voltage-current characteristic.

  19. Nonlinear regimes of forced magnetic reconnection

    SciTech Connect

    Vekstein, G.; Kusano, K.

    2015-09-15

    This letter presents a self-consistent description of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection in Taylor's model of this process. If external boundary perturbation is strong enough, nonlinearity in the current sheet evolution becomes important before resistive effects come into play. This terminates the current sheet shrinking that takes place at the linear stage and brings about its nonlinear equilibrium with a finite thickness. Then, in theory, this equilibrium is destroyed by a finite plasma resistivity during the skin-time, and further reconnection proceeds in the Rutherford regime. However, realization of such a scenario is unlikely because of the plasmoid instability, which is fast enough to develop before the transition to the Rutherford phase occurs. The suggested analytical theory is entirely different from all previous studies and provides proper interpretation of the presently available numerical simulations of nonlinear forced magnetic reconnection.

  20. Multimode optomechanical system in the quantum regime.

    PubMed

    Nielsen, William Hvidtfelt Padkær; Tsaturyan, Yeghishe; Møller, Christoffer Bo; Polzik, Eugene S; Schliesser, Albert

    2017-01-03

    We realize a simple and robust optomechanical system with a multitude of long-lived (Q > 10(7)) mechanical modes in a phononic-bandgap shielded membrane resonator. An optical mode of a compact Fabry-Perot resonator detects these modes' motion with a measurement rate (96 kHz) that exceeds the mechanical decoherence rates already at moderate cryogenic temperatures (10 K). Reaching this quantum regime entails, inter alia, quantum measurement backaction exceeding thermal forces and thus strong optomechanical quantum correlations. In particular, we observe ponderomotive squeezing of the output light mediated by a multitude of mechanical resonator modes, with quantum noise suppression up to -2.4 dB (-3.6 dB if corrected for detection losses) and bandwidths ≲90 kHz. The multimode nature of the membrane and Fabry-Perot resonators will allow multimode entanglement involving electromagnetic, mechanical, and spin degrees of freedom.

  1. Multimode optomechanical system in the quantum regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hvidtfelt Padkær Nielsen, William; Tsaturyan, Yeghishe; Møller, Christoffer Bo; Polzik, Eugene S.; Schliesser, Albert

    2017-01-01

    We realize a simple and robust optomechanical system with a multitude of long-lived (Q > 107) mechanical modes in a phononic-bandgap shielded membrane resonator. An optical mode of a compact Fabry–Perot resonator detects these modes’ motion with a measurement rate (96 kHz) that exceeds the mechanical decoherence rates already at moderate cryogenic temperatures (10 K). Reaching this quantum regime entails, inter alia, quantum measurement backaction exceeding thermal forces and thus strong optomechanical quantum correlations. In particular, we observe ponderomotive squeezing of the output light mediated by a multitude of mechanical resonator modes, with quantum noise suppression up to ‑2.4 dB (‑3.6 dB if corrected for detection losses) and bandwidths ≲90 kHz. The multimode nature of the membrane and Fabry–Perot resonators will allow multimode entanglement involving electromagnetic, mechanical, and spin degrees of freedom.

  2. The Great Lakes' regional climate regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sugiyama, Noriyuki

    For the last couple of decades, the Great Lakes have undergone rapid surface warming. In particular, the magnitude of the summer surface-warming trends of the Great Lakes have been much greater than those of surrounding land (Austin and Colman, 2007). Among the Great Lakes, the deepest Lake Superior exhibited the strongest warming trend in its annual, as well as summer surface water temperature. We find that many aspects of this behavior can be explained in terms of the tendency of deep lakes to exhibit multiple regimes characterized, under the same seasonally varying forcing, by the warmer and colder seasonal cycles exhibiting different amounts of wintertime lake-ice cover and corresponding changes in the summertime lake-surface temperatures. In this thesis, we address the problem of the Great Lakes' warming using one-dimensional lake modeling to interpret diverse observations of the recent lake behavior. (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.).

  3. Environment Flow Assessment with Flow Regime Transition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su, J.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2015-12-01

    To avoid worsen river and estuarine ecosystems cause by overusing water resources, environmental flows conservation is applied to reduce the impact of river environment. Environmental flows refer to water provided within a river, wetland or coastal zone to sustain ecosystems and benefits to human wellbeing. Environment flow assessment is now widely accepted that a naturally variable flow regime, rather than just a minimum low flow. In this study, we propose four methods, experience method, Tenant method, hydraulic method and habitat method to assess the environmental flow of base flow, flush flow and overbank flow with different discharge, frequency and occurrence period. Dahan River has been chosen as a case to demonstrate the assessment mechanism. The alternatives impact analysis of environment and human water used provides a reference for stakeholders when holding an environmental flow consultative meeting.

  4. Anomalous Transport in the Superfluid Fluctuation Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchino, Shun; Ueda, Masahito

    2017-03-01

    Motivated by a recent experiment in ultracold atoms [S. Krinner et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 113, 8144 (2016), 10.1073/pnas.1601812113], we analyze transport of attractively interacting fermions through a one-dimensional wire near the superfluid transition. We show that in a ballistic regime where the conductance is quantized in the absence of interaction, the conductance is renormalized by superfluid fluctuations in reservoirs. In particular, the particle conductance is strongly enhanced, and the conductance plateau is blurred by emergent bosonic pair transport. For spin transport, in addition to the contact resistance, the wire itself is resistive, leading to a suppression of the measured spin conductance. Our results are qualitatively consistent with the experimental observations.

  5. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Ming-Tso; Amet, François; Ke, Chung-Ting; Borzenets, Ivan; Wang, Jiyingmei; Watanabe, Keji; Taniguchi, Takashi; Deacon, Russell; Yamamoto, Michihisa; Bomze, Yuriy; Tarucha, Seigo; Finkelstein, Gleb

    Combining superconductivity and the quantum Hall (QH) effect is a promising route for creating new types of topological excitations. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the quantum Hall regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a QH weak link has so far eluded experimental observation. Here we demonstrate the existence of a novel type of Josephson coupling through a QH region at magnetic fields as high as 2 Tesla. The supercurrent is mediated by states encompassing QH edge channels, which are flowing on opposite sides of the sample. The edges are coupled together by the hybrid electron-hole modes at the interfaces between the QH region and the superconducting contacts. These chiral modes, which share some features with Majorana modes, are formed when electron and hole edge states are mixed by the superconductor.

  6. A Novel Method for Analyzing and Interpreting GCM Results Using Clustered Climate Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D. J.; Oglesby, R. J.

    2003-12-01

    A high-performance parallel clustering algorithm has been developed for analyzing and comparing climate model results and long time series climate measurements. Designed to identify biases and detect trends in disparate climate change data sets, this tool combines and simplifies large temporally-varying data sets from atmospheric measurements to multi-century climate model output. Clustering is a statistical procedure which provides an objective method for grouping multivariate conditions into a set of states or regimes within a given level of statistical tolerance. The groups or clusters--statistically defined across space and through time--possess centroids which represent the synoptic conditions of observations or model results contained in each state no matter when or where they occurred. The clustering technique was applied to five business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios from the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Three fields of significance (surface temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture) were clustered from 2000 through 2098. Our analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The same analysis subsequently applied to the ensemble as a whole demonstrates the consistency and variability of trends from each ensemble member. The patterns of cluster changes can be used to show predicted variability in climate on global and continental scales. Novel three-dimensional phase space representations of these climate regimes show the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time. Any single spot on the globe will exist in one of these climate regimes at any single point in time, and by incrementing time, that same spot will trace out a trajectory or orbit among these climate regimes in phase space. When a

  7. Antecedents of Teachers Fostering Effort within Two Different Management Regimes: An Assessment-Based Accountability Regime and Regime without External Pressure on Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christophersen, Knut-Andreas; Elstad, Eyvind; Turmo, Are

    2012-01-01

    This article focuses on the comparison of organizational antecedents of teachers' fostering of students' effort in two quite different accountability regimes: one management regime with an external-accountability system and one with no external accountability devices. The methodology involves cross-sectional surveys from two different management…

  8. Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2002-01-01

    The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes in order to provide cloud data sets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different case are presented: Jan 26,1999, an easterly regime case, and Feb 23,1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line and is initialized with a standard cold pool. The sensitivity to mid-level sounding moisture and wind shear will also be shown. The Feb 23 case is less-organized with only transient lines and is initialized with either warm bubbles or prescribed surface fluxes. Heating profiles, rainfall statistics and storm characteristics are compared and validated for the two cases against observations collected during the experiment.

  9. On the Asymptotic Regimes and the Strongly Stratified Limit of Rotating Boussinesq Equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babin, A.; Mahalov, A.; Nicolaenko, B.; Zhou, Y.

    1997-01-01

    Asymptotic regimes of geophysical dynamics are described for different Burger number limits. Rotating Boussinesq equations are analyzed in the asymptotic limit, of strong stratification in the Burger number of order one situation as well as in the asymptotic regime of strong stratification and weak rotation. It is shown that in both regimes horizontally averaged buoyancy variable is an adiabatic invariant for the full Boussinesq system. Spectral phase shift corrections to the buoyancy time scale associated with vertical shearing of this invariant are deduced. Statistical dephasing effects induced by turbulent processes on inertial-gravity waves are evidenced. The 'split' of the energy transfer of the vortical and the wave components is established in the Craya-Herring cyclic basis. As the Burger number increases from zero to infinity, we demonstrate gradual unfreezing of energy cascades for ageostrophic dynamics. The energy spectrum and the anisotropic spectral eddy viscosity are deduced with an explicit dependence on the anisotropic rotation/stratification time scale which depends on the vertical aspect ratio parameter. Intermediate asymptotic regime corresponding to strong stratification and weak rotation is analyzed where the effects of weak rotation are accounted for by an asymptotic expansion with full control (saturation) of vertical shearing. The regularizing effect of weak rotation differs from regularizations based on vertical viscosity. Two scalar prognostic equations for ageostrophic components (divergent velocity potential and geostrophic departure ) are obtained.

  10. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  11. Social mobility and health in European countries: Does welfare regime type matter?

    PubMed

    Campos-Matos, Inês; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2015-10-01

    Health inequalities pose an important public health challenge in European countries, for which increased social mobility has been suggested as a cause. We sought to describe how the relationship between health inequalities and social mobility varies among welfare regime types in the European region. Data from six rounds of the European Social Survey was analyzed using multilevel statistical techniques, stratified by welfare regime type, including 237,535 individuals from 136 countries. Social mobility among individuals was defined according to the discrepancy between parental and offspring educational attainment. For each welfare regime type, the association between social mobility and self-rated health was examined using odds ratios and risk differences, controlling for parental education. Upwardly mobile individuals had between 23 and 44% lower odds of reporting bad or very bad self-rated health when compared to those who remained stable. On an absolute scale, former USSR countries showed the biggest and only significant differences for upward movement, while Scandinavian countries showed the smallest. Downward social mobility tended to be associated with worse health, but the results were less consistent. Upward social mobility is associated with worse health in all European welfare regime types. However, in Scandinavian countries the association of upward mobility was smaller, suggesting that the Nordic model is more effective in mitigating the impact of social mobility on health and/or of health on mobility.

  12. Effect of snow on mountain river regimes: an example from the Pyrenees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanmiguel-Vallelado, Alba; Morán-Tejeda, Enrique; Alonso-González, Esteban; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to characterize mountain river regimes in the Spanish Pyrenees and to assess the importance of snow accumulation and snowmelt on the timing of river flows. Daily streamflow data from 9 gauging stations in the Pyrenees were used to characterize river regimes. These data were analyzed by hydrological indices, with a focus on periods when snow accumulation and snowmelt occurred. These results were combined with data on Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (from measurements of depth and density of snow in the main river basins and also simulated by a process-based hydrological model), snowmelting (simulated by a process-based hydrological model), precipitation (from observations), and temperature (from observations). Longitude and elevation gradients in the Pyrenees explain the transition of river regimes from those that mostly had low nival signals (in the west and at low elevations) to those that mostly had high nival signals (low winter runoff and late spring peakflow, in the east and at high elevations). Although trend analyses indicated no statistically significant changes, there was a trend of decreased nival signal over time in most of the analyzed rivers. Our results also demonstrated that snow processes cannot explain all of the interannual variability of river regimes, because the temporal distribution of liquid precipitation and temperature play key roles in hydrography.

  13. Spontaneous quasi single helicity regimes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frassinetti, L.; Brunsell, P. R.; Drake, J. R.; Menmuir, S.; Cecconello, M.

    2007-11-01

    In recent years, good progress toward a better understanding and control of the plasma performance in reversed-field pinch devices has been made. These improvements consist both of the discovery of spontaneous plasma regimes, termed the quasi single helicity (QSH) regime, in which part of the plasma core is no longer stochastic, and of the development of techniques for active control of plasma instabilities. In this paper, a systematic study of spontaneous QSH in the EXTRAP T2R device [P. R. Brunsell, H. Bergsaker, M. Cecconello et al., Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 43, 1457 (2001)] is presented. In this device, QSH states can occur spontaneously and it is associated with magnetic and thermal structures. A statistical analysis to determine the most favorable experimental conditions to have a transition to the QSH regime will be presented. The results described here are useful to understand the underlying properties of QSH regimes in view of future applications of the QSH active control in EXTRAP T2R; they are also important to have a comparison with the QSH studied in other devices.

  14. Dynamical response of the Hodgkin-Huxley model in the high-input regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luccioli, Stefano; Kreuz, Thomas; Torcini, Alessandro

    2006-04-01

    The response of the Hodgkin-Huxley neuronal model subjected to stochastic uncorrelated spike trains originating from a large number of inhibitory and excitatory post-synaptic potentials is analyzed in detail. The model is examined in its three fundamental dynamical regimes: silence, bistability, and repetitive firing. Its response is characterized in terms of statistical indicators (interspike-interval distributions and their first moments) as well as of dynamical indicators (autocorrelation functions and conditional entropies). In the silent regime, the coexistence of two different coherence resonances is revealed: one occurs at quite low noise and is related to the stimulation of subthreshold oscillations around the rest state; the second one (at intermediate noise variance) is associated with the regularization of the sequence of spikes emitted by the neuron. Bistability in the low noise limit can be interpreted in terms of jumping processes across barriers activated by stochastic fluctuations. In the repetitive firing regime a maximization of incoherence is observed at finite noise variance. Finally, the mechanisms responsible for the different features appearing in the interspike-interval distributions (like multimodality and exponential tails) are clearly identified in the various regimes.

  15. Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

    2016-11-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends (p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

  16. The water regime of the lake Kolon watersystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zellei, L.; Tamás, E. A.; Sziebert, J.; Tóth, Sz.

    2009-04-01

    Lake Kolon is one of the important freshwater marshes of Hungary, with its extensive reedbeds, meadows and forests. The natural development process of the lake was interrupted in 1930. The events which happened later give a typical cross-section of Hungarian water management practices. The interventions started with draining a considerable part of the lake and taking it into agricultural usage. In order to get the waters of the Danube floodplains under control, the building of the Danube-Valley Channel started in 1912. The channel, which is 107 kms long, was ready in 1929, and the subordinated channel system was established in the beginning of the 1930's. Connected to these works, the lake Kolon was declared as an excess water reservoir after its draining in 1927-28. So the reservoir had to be kept on minimal waterlevel in order to be able to host the arriving waters any time. This kind of management has changed from 1987 to 1996 for a more preferable management which is ruled by the actual conditions in order to maintain the water resources. With the analysis of the water resources of the lake we showed that there is a significant supply from subsurface runoff, and we determined the statistical characteristics of the quantitative indices of the water regime. The high waterlevel which is favourable from the viewpoint of nature conservation has proven to be sustainable even if the receiver is in its design status.

  17. Precipitation Efficiency in the Tropical Deep Convective Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Precipitation efficiency in the tropical deep convective regime is analyzed based on a 2-D cloud resolving simulation. The cloud resolving model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind and large-scale horizontal advections derived from TOGA COARE for a 20-day period. Precipitation efficiency may be defined as a ratio of surface rain rate to sum of surface evaporation and moisture convergence (LSPE) or a ratio of surface rain rate to sum of condensation and deposition rates of supersaturated vapor (CMPE). Moisture budget shows that the atmosphere is moistened (dryed) when the LSPE is less (more) than 100 %. The LSPE could be larger than 100 % for strong convection. This indicates that the drying processes should be included in cumulus parameterization to avoid moisture bias. Statistical analysis shows that the sum of the condensation and deposition rates is bout 80 % of the sum of the surface evaporation rate and moisture convergence, which ads to proportional relation between the two efficiencies when both efficiencies are less han 100 %. The CMPE increases with increasing mass-weighted mean temperature and creasing surface rain rate. This suggests that precipitation is more efficient for warm environment and strong convection. Approximate balance of rates among the condensation, deposition, rain, and the raindrop evaporation is used to derive an analytical solution of the CMPE.

  18. Statistical Physics of Fracture

    SciTech Connect

    Alava, Mikko; Nukala, Phani K; Zapperi, Stefano

    2006-05-01

    Disorder and long-range interactions are two of the key components that make material failure an interesting playfield for the application of statistical mechanics. The cornerstone in this respect has been lattice models of the fracture in which a network of elastic beams, bonds, or electrical fuses with random failure thresholds are subject to an increasing external load. These models describe on a qualitative level the failure processes of real, brittle, or quasi-brittle materials. This has been particularly important in solving the classical engineering problems of material strength: the size dependence of maximum stress and its sample-to-sample statistical fluctuations. At the same time, lattice models pose many new fundamental questions in statistical physics, such as the relation between fracture and phase transitions. Experimental results point out to the existence of an intriguing crackling noise in the acoustic emission and of self-affine fractals in the crack surface morphology. Recent advances in computer power have enabled considerable progress in the understanding of such models. Among these partly still controversial issues, are the scaling and size-effects in material strength and accumulated damage, the statistics of avalanches or bursts of microfailures, and the morphology of the crack surface. Here we present an overview of the results obtained with lattice models for fracture, highlighting the relations with statistical physics theories and more conventional fracture mechanics approaches.

  19. Suite versus composite statistics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Balsillie, J.H.; Tanner, W.F.

    1999-01-01

    Suite and composite methodologies, two statistically valid approaches for producing statistical descriptive measures, are investigated for sample groups representing a probability distribution where, in addition, each sample is probability distribution. Suite and composite means (first moment measures) are always equivalent. Composite standard deviations (second moment measures) are always larger than suite standard deviations. Suite and composite values for higher moment measures have more complex relationships. Very seldom, however, are they equivalent, and they normally yield statistically significant but different results. Multiple samples are preferable to single samples (including composites) because they permit the investigator to examine sample-to-sample variability. These and other relationships for suite and composite probability distribution analyses are investigated and reported using granulometric data.

  20. Perception in statistical graphics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    VanderPlas, Susan Ruth

    There has been quite a bit of research on statistical graphics and visualization, generally focused on new types of graphics, new software to create graphics, interactivity, and usability studies. Our ability to interpret and use statistical graphics hinges on the interface between the graph itself and the brain that perceives and interprets it, and there is substantially less research on the interplay between graph, eye, brain, and mind than is sufficient to understand the nature of these relationships. The goal of the work presented here is to further explore the interplay between a static graph, the translation of that graph from paper to mental representation (the journey from eye to brain), and the mental processes that operate on that graph once it is transferred into memory (mind). Understanding the perception of statistical graphics should allow researchers to create more effective graphs which produce fewer distortions and viewer errors while reducing the cognitive load necessary to understand the information presented in the graph. Taken together, these experiments should lay a foundation for exploring the perception of statistical graphics. There has been considerable research into the accuracy of numerical judgments viewers make from graphs, and these studies are useful, but it is more effective to understand how errors in these judgments occur so that the root cause of the error can be addressed directly. Understanding how visual reasoning relates to the ability to make judgments from graphs allows us to tailor graphics to particular target audiences. In addition, understanding the hierarchy of salient features in statistical graphics allows us to clearly communicate the important message from data or statistical models by constructing graphics which are designed specifically for the perceptual system.

  1. Structures and Lagrangian statistics of the Taylor-Green dynamo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Homann, H.; Ponty, Y.; Krstulovic, G.; Grauer, R.

    2014-07-01

    The evolution of a Taylor-Green forced magnetohydrodynamic system showing dynamo activity is analyzed via direct numerical simulations. The statistical properties of the velocity and magnetic fields in Eulerian and Lagrangian coordinates are found to change between the kinematic, nonlinear and saturated regime. Fluid element (tracer) trajectories change from chaotic quasi-isotropic (kinematic phase) to mean magnetic field aligned (saturated phase). The probability density functions (PDFs) of the magnetic field change from strongly non-Gaussian in the kinematic to quasi-Gaussian PDFs in the saturated regime so that their flatness give a precise handle on the definition of the limiting points of the three regimes. Also the statistics of the kinetic and magnetic fluctuations along fluid trajectories changes. All this goes along with a dramatic increase of the correlation time of the velocity and magnetic fields experienced by tracers, significantly exceeding one turbulent large-eddy turn-over time. A remarkable consequence is an intermittent scaling regime of the Lagrangian magnetic field structure functions at unusually long time scales.

  2. Evidencing a regime shift in the North Sea using early-warning signals as indicators of critical transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wouters, N.; Dakos, V.; Edwards, M.; Serafim, M. P.; Valayer, P. J.; Cabral, H. N.

    2015-01-01

    One of the longest marine monitoring programs in the North Sea has been the spatiotemporal surveying of subsurface plankton since 1931. During this period a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s culminating in marked changes in phytoplankton, zooplankton and in the fisheries of horse mackerel. Here we used the phytoplankton colour index, a visual biomass estimate, from 1948 to 2010 and total diatom abundance from 1958 to 2010 to test whether the well-documented regime shift could have been anticipated by the recently developed Early-Warning Signals for critical transitions (EWS). We estimated EWS, namely autocorrelation and standard deviation, within moving windows along the time series prior to the regime shift. We found that both statistics increased revealing that the North Sea ecosystem was becoming progressively unstable prior to the regime shift. Moreover, this high-resolution time series permitted us to test for robustness, error and significance of the EWS. We did that by dividing the time series into independent blocks and estimating EWS after bootstrapping and randomising the blocks. This alternative approach confirmed the robustness of the EWS with limited associated errors. In particular, we found that the warning was significantly evident years before the onset of the regime shift. We conclude that EWS may provide robust and timely warning for upcoming regime shifts depending on the quality and quantity of recorded data in marine ecosystems.

  3. Nonequilibrium work statistics of an Aharonov-Bohm flux.

    PubMed

    Yi, Juyeon; Talkner, Peter; Campisi, Michele

    2011-07-01

    We investigate the statistics of work performed on a noninteracting electron gas confined in a ring as a threaded magnetic field is turned on. For an electron gas initially prepared in a grand canonical state it is demonstrated that the Jarzynski equality continues to hold in this case, with the free energy replaced by the grand potential. The work distribution displays a marked dependence on the temperature. While in the classical (high-temperature) regime, the work probability density function follows a Gaussian distribution and the free energy difference entering the Jarzynski equality is null, the free energy difference is finite in the quantum regime, and the work probability distribution function becomes multimodal. We point out the dependence of the work statistics on the number of electrons composing the system.

  4. Statistical origin of gravity

    SciTech Connect

    Banerjee, Rabin; Majhi, Bibhas Ranjan

    2010-06-15

    Starting from the definition of entropy used in statistical mechanics we show that it is proportional to the gravity action. For a stationary black hole this entropy is expressed as S=E/2T, where T is the Hawking temperature and E is shown to be the Komar energy. This relation is also compatible with the generalized Smarr formula for mass.

  5. Statistical Reasoning over Lunch

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Selmer, Sarah J.; Bolyard, Johnna J.; Rye, James A.

    2011-01-01

    Students in the 21st century are exposed daily to a staggering amount of numerically infused media. In this era of abundant numeric data, students must be able to engage in sound statistical reasoning when making life decisions after exposure to varied information. The context of nutrition can be used to engage upper elementary and middle school…

  6. Learning Statistical Concepts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Akram, Muhammad; Siddiqui, Asim Jamal; Yasmeen, Farah

    2004-01-01

    In order to learn the concept of statistical techniques one needs to run real experiments that generate reliable data. In practice, the data from some well-defined process or system is very costly and time consuming. It is difficult to run real experiments during the teaching period in the university. To overcome these difficulties, statisticians…

  7. Analogies for Understanding Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hocquette, Jean-Francois

    2004-01-01

    This article describes a simple way to explain the limitations of statistics to scientists and students to avoid the publication of misleading conclusions. Biologists examine their results extremely critically and carefully choose the appropriate analytic methods depending on their scientific objectives. However, no such close attention is usually…

  8. Statistical Significance Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLean, James E., Ed.; Kaufman, Alan S., Ed.

    1998-01-01

    The controversy about the use or misuse of statistical significance testing has become the major methodological issue in educational research. This special issue contains three articles that explore the controversy, three commentaries on these articles, an overall response, and three rejoinders by the first three authors. They are: (1)…

  9. Structurally Sound Statistics Instruction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casey, Stephanie A.; Bostic, Jonathan D.

    2016-01-01

    The Common Core's Standards for Mathematical Practice (SMP) call for all K-grade 12 students to develop expertise in the processes and proficiencies of doing mathematics. However, the Common Core State Standards for Mathematics (CCSSM) (CCSSI 2010) as a whole addresses students' learning of not only mathematics but also statistics. This situation…

  10. General Aviation Avionics Statistics.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-12-01

    No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient’s Catalog No. 5" FAA-MS-80-7* a and. SubtitleDecember 1&80 "GENERAL AVIATION AVIONICS STATISTICS 0 6...Altimeter 8. Fuel gage 3. Compass 9. Landing gear 4. Tachometer 10. Belts 5. Oil temperature 11. Special equipment for 6. Emergency locator over water

  11. NACME Statistical Report 1986.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miranda, Luis A.; Ruiz, Esther

    This statistical report summarizes data on enrollment and graduation of minority students in engineering degree programs from 1974 to 1985. First, an introduction identifies major trends and briefly describes the Incentive Grants Program (IGP), the nation's largest privately supported source of scholarship funds available to minority engineering…

  12. Probability and Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Bernis, Ed.; And Others

    This teacher's guide to probability and statistics contains three major sections. The first section on elementary combinatorial principles includes activities, student problems, and suggested teaching procedures for the multiplication principle, permutations, and combinations. Section two develops an intuitive approach to probability through…

  13. Selected Manpower Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense -- Comptroller (DOD), Washington, DC.

    This document contains summaries of basic manpower statistical data for the Department of Defense, with the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force totals shown separately and collectively. Included are figures for active duty military personnel, civilian personnel, reserve components, and retired military personnel. Some of the data show…

  14. Statistics of mass production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, R. L.; Gateley, Wilson Y.

    1993-05-01

    This paper summarizes the statistical quality control methods and procedures that can be employed in mass producing electronic parts (integrated circuits, buffers, capacitors, connectors) to reduce variability and ensure performance to specified radiation, current, voltage, temperature, shock, and vibration levels. Producing such quality parts reduces uncertainties in performance and will aid materially in validating the survivability of components, subsystems, and systems to specified threats.

  15. Statistics for Learning Genetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Charles, Abigail Sheena

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the knowledge and skills that biology students may need to help them understand statistics/mathematics as it applies to genetics. The data are based on analyses of current representative genetics texts, practicing genetics professors' perspectives, and more directly, students' perceptions of, and performance in, doing…

  16. Education Statistics Quarterly, 2003.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marenus, Barbara; Burns, Shelley; Fowler, William; Greene, Wilma; Knepper, Paula; Kolstad, Andrew; McMillen Seastrom, Marilyn; Scott, Leslie

    2003-01-01

    This publication provides a comprehensive overview of work done across all parts of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Each issue contains short publications, summaries, and descriptions that cover all NCES publications and data products released in a 3-month period. Each issue also contains a message from the NCES on a timely…

  17. Whither Statistics Education Research?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watson, Jane

    2016-01-01

    This year marks the 25th anniversary of the publication of a "National Statement on Mathematics for Australian Schools", which was the first curriculum statement this country had including "Chance and Data" as a significant component. It is hence an opportune time to survey the history of the related statistics education…

  18. Quartiles in Elementary Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langford, Eric

    2006-01-01

    The calculation of the upper and lower quartile values of a data set in an elementary statistics course is done in at least a dozen different ways, depending on the text or computer/calculator package being used (such as SAS, JMP, MINITAB, "Excel," and the TI-83 Plus). In this paper, we examine the various methods and offer a suggestion for a new…

  19. Mental Illness Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... of benign genes ID’s ASD suspects More Additional Mental Health Information from NIMH Medications Statistics Clinical Trials Coping ... Finder Publicaciones en Español The National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) is part of the National Institutes of ...

  20. Statistical Energy Analysis Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferebee, R. C.; Trudell, R. W.; Yano, L. I.; Nygaard, S. I.

    1985-01-01

    Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) is powerful tool for estimating highfrequency vibration spectra of complex structural systems and incorporated into computer program. Basic SEA analysis procedure divided into three steps: Idealization, parameter generation, and problem solution. SEA computer program written in FORTRAN V for batch execution.

  1. Library Research and Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lynch, Mary Jo; St. Lifer, Evan; Halstead, Kent; Fox, Bette-Lee; Miller, Marilyn L.; Shontz, Marilyn L.

    2001-01-01

    These nine articles discuss research and statistics on libraries and librarianship, including libraries in the United States, Canada, and Mexico; acquisition expenditures in public, academic, special, and government libraries; price indexes; state rankings of public library data; library buildings; expenditures in school library media centers; and…

  2. Evaluating temperature regimes for protection of brown trout

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Armour, Carl L.

    1994-01-01

    Geographic distribution and population success of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are affected by temperature regimes. Concepts are presented for evaluating alternative temperature regimes for brown trout based on published temperature information and professional judgment. Temperature information from the literature is included for spawning runs, spawning, egg and larval development, growth, and other subjects. The objective is to aid biologists in evaluating alternative temperature regimes so as to select those that will protect and enhance environmental quality for brown trout.

  3. Statistics for Learning Genetics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charles, Abigail Sheena

    This study investigated the knowledge and skills that biology students may need to help them understand statistics/mathematics as it applies to genetics. The data are based on analyses of current representative genetics texts, practicing genetics professors' perspectives, and more directly, students' perceptions of, and performance in, doing statistically-based genetics problems. This issue is at the emerging edge of modern college-level genetics instruction, and this study attempts to identify key theoretical components for creating a specialized biological statistics curriculum. The goal of this curriculum will be to prepare biology students with the skills for assimilating quantitatively-based genetic processes, increasingly at the forefront of modern genetics. To fulfill this, two college level classes at two universities were surveyed. One university was located in the northeastern US and the other in the West Indies. There was a sample size of 42 students and a supplementary interview was administered to a select 9 students. Interviews were also administered to professors in the field in order to gain insight into the teaching of statistics in genetics. Key findings indicated that students had very little to no background in statistics (55%). Although students did perform well on exams with 60% of the population receiving an A or B grade, 77% of them did not offer good explanations on a probability question associated with the normal distribution provided in the survey. The scope and presentation of the applicable statistics/mathematics in some of the most used textbooks in genetics teaching, as well as genetics syllabi used by instructors do not help the issue. It was found that the text books, often times, either did not give effective explanations for students, or completely left out certain topics. The omission of certain statistical/mathematical oriented topics was seen to be also true with the genetics syllabi reviewed for this study. Nonetheless

  4. Shearing box simulations in the Rayleigh unstable regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nauman, Farrukh; Blackman, Eric G.

    2017-01-01

    We study the stability properties of Rayleigh unstable flows both in the purely hydrodynamic and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) regimes for two different values of the shear q = 2.1, 4.2 (q = -dln Ω/dln r) and compare it with the Keplerian case q = 1.5. We find that the q > 2 regime is unstable both in the hydrodynamic and in the MHD limit (with an initially weak magnetic field). In this regime, the velocity fluctuations dominate the magnetic fluctuations. In contrast, in the q < 2 (magnetorotational instability (MRI)) regime the magnetic fluctuations dominate. This highlights two different paths to MHD turbulence implied by the two regimes, suggesting that in the q > 2 regime the instability produces primarily velocity fluctuations that cause magnetic fluctuations, with the causality reversed for the q < 2 MRI unstable regime. We also find that the magnetic field correlation is increasingly localized as the shear is increased in the Rayleigh unstable regime. In calculating the time evolution of spatial averages of different terms in the MHD equations, we find that the q > 2 regime is dominated by terms which are nonlinear in the fluctuations, whereas for q < 2, the linear terms play a more significant role.

  5. Film thickness for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.

    1980-01-01

    Film thickness equations are provided for four fluid-film lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts. These regimes are isoviscous-rigid; viscous-rigid; elastohydrodynamic lubrication of low-elastic-modulus materials (soft EHL), or isoviscous-elastic; and elastohydrodynamic lubrication of high-elastic-modulus materials (hard EHL), or viscous-elastic. The influence or lack of influence of elastic and viscous effects is the factor that distinguishes these regimes. The results are presented as a map of the lubrication regimes, with film thickness contours on a log-log grid of the viscosity and elasticity for three values of the ellipticity parameter.

  6. Varying Inundation Regimes Differentially Affect Natural and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Climate change is altering sea-level rise rates and precipitation patterns worldwide. Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to these changes. System responses to stressors are important for resource managers and environmental stewards to understand in order to best manage them. Thin layer sand or sediment application to drowning and eroding marshes is one approach to build elevation and resilience. The above- and below-ground structure, soil carbon dioxide emissions, and pore water constituents in vegetated natural marsh sediments and sand-amended sediments were examined at varying inundation regimes between mean sea level and mean high water (0.82 m NAVD88 to 1.49 m NAVD88) in a field experiment at Laws Point, part of the Plum Island Sound Estuary (MA). Significantly lower salinities, pH, sulfides, phosphates, and ammonium were measured in the sand-amended sediments than in the natural sediments. In natural sediments there was a pattern of increasing salinity with increasing elevation while in the sand-amended sediments the trend was reversed, showing decreasing salinity with increasing elevation. Sulfide concentrations generally increased from low to high inundation with highest concentrations at the highest inundation (i.e., at the lowest elevations). High pore water phosphate concentrations were measured at low elevations in the natural sediments, but the sand-amended treatments had mostly low concentrations of phosphate and no consistent pattern with elevation. A

  7. RF Profile Control for Sustained Plasma Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosea, J.; Bernabei, S.; Leblanc, B.; Majeski, R.; Menard, J.; Ono, M.; Phillips, C. K.; Schilling, G.; Wilson, J. R.

    1999-11-01

    For advancing plasma operation regimes for AT tokamaks and steady state concepts, as well as for forming and sustaining alternate concepts, it is necessary to provide control of the spatial profiles for the important plasma parameters - pressure, current, etc.. RF techniques offer considerable promise for providing this control and should be further developed as rapidly as possible within the well established tokamak program for forming a basis for application to all confinement concepts. Notably, IBW promises to provide internal transport barrier control if the coupling physics can be understood and efficient antenna coupling to the Bernstein wave can be developed. We will review the IBW experience and discuss possible explanations and solutions for the coupling problems encountered. In particular, the competing roles of parametric decay instability and surface mode excitation will be examined in order to elucidate the increase in surface power losses for the larger devices DIII-D and TFTR. Also, issues which need to be understood for employing ICRF and LH techniques to best advantage, such as antenna bombardment and energetic electron excitation, respectively, will be outlined.

  8. On spinfoam models in large spin regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Muxin

    2014-01-01

    We study the semiclassical behavior of Lorentzian Engle-Pereira-Rovelli-Livine (EPRL) spinfoam model, by taking into account the sum over spins in the large spin regime. We also employ the method of stationary phase analysis with parameters and the so-called, almost analytic machinery, in order to find the asymptotic behavior of the contributions from all possible large spin configurations in the spinfoam model. The spins contributing the sum are written as Jf = λjf, where λ is a large parameter resulting in an asymptotic expansion via stationary phase approximation. The analysis shows that at least for the simplicial Lorentzian geometries (as spinfoam critical configurations), they contribute the leading order approximation of spinfoam amplitude only when their deficit angles satisfy \\gamma \\mathring{\\Theta }_f\\le \\lambda ^{-1/2} mod 4\\pi {Z}. Our analysis results in a curvature expansion of the semiclassical low energy effective action from the spinfoam model, where the UV modifications of Einstein gravity appear as subleading high-curvature corrections.

  9. Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mo, Kingtse; Ghil, Michael

    1987-01-01

    A modified cluster analysis method was developed to identify spatial patterns of planetary flow regimes, and to study transitions between them. This method was applied first to a simple deterministic model and second to Northern Hemisphere (NH) 500 mb data. The dynamical model is governed by the fully-nonlinear, equivalent-barotropic vorticity equation on the sphere. Clusters of point in the model's phase space are associated with either a few persistent or with many transient events. Two stationary clusters have patterns similar to unstable stationary model solutions, zonal, or blocked. Transient clusters of wave trains serve as way stations between the stationary ones. For the NH data, cluster analysis was performed in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters are found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, and transient clusters in the bandpass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days. In the low-frequency band three pairs of clusters determine, respectively, EOFs 1, 2, and 3. They exhibit well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern and wave trains. Both model and low-pass data show strong bimodality. Clusters in the bandpass window show wave-train patterns in the two jet exit regions. They are related, as in the model, to transitions between stationary clusters.

  10. TBT causes regime shift in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Sayer, Carl D; Hoare, Daniel J; Simpson, Gavin L; Henderson, Andrew C G; Liptrot, Eleanor R; Jackson, Michael J; Appleby, Peter G; Boyle, John F; Jones, I Iwan; Waldock, Mike J

    2006-09-01

    Tributyltin (TBT) is an organotin compound used since the early 1960s as a biocide in boat antifouling paints. Its use has been linked to a host of negative effects in marine ecosystems including malformations and imposex in Mollusca and acute toxicity in many other aquatic animals. Yet, the consequences of TBT use in freshwaters are largely unknown. Here, for the first time we reveal that TBT may have caused hitherto unsuspected damage to freshwater ecosystems. Through an analysis of dated sediment cores collected from a system of recreationally boated, shallow lakes, we show that first evidence of TBT is associated with a dramatic loss of submerged vegetation and associated diverse animal communities. Cause and effect are difficult to unravel in our study. However, we hypothesize that TBT, through reducing populations of grazing organisms in lakes already affected by eutrophication, promoted the replacement of macrophytes by phytoplankton, ultimately leading to a regime shift in the ecosystem. Our findings may have parallels in freshwater ecosystems all over the world.

  11. Global fishery prospects under contrasting management regimes

    PubMed Central

    Costello, Christopher; Ovando, Daniel; Clavelle, Tyler; Strauss, C. Kent; Hilborn, Ray; Melnychuk, Michael C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Gaines, Steven D.; Szuwalski, Cody S.; Cabral, Reniel B.; Rader, Douglas N.; Leland, Amanda

    2016-01-01

    Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. We estimate unique recovery targets and trajectories for each fishery, calculate the year-by-year effects of alternative recovery approaches, and model how alternative institutional reforms affect recovery outcomes. Current status is highly heterogeneous—the median fishery is in poor health (overfished, with further overfishing occurring), although 32% of fisheries are in good biological, although not necessarily economic, condition. Our business-as-usual scenario projects further divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 million metric tons (MMT) in catch, $53 billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that, with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 y to reach recovery targets. Our results show that commonsense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits. PMID:27035953

  12. CSDP: The seismology of continental thermal regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Aki, K.

    1990-05-01

    This is a progress report for the past one year of research (year 3 of 5-year project) under the project titled CSDP: Seismology of Continental Thermal Regime'', in which we proposed to develop seismological interpretation theory and methods applicable to complex structures encountered in continental geothermal areas and apply them to several candidate sites for the Continental Scientific Drilling Project. The past year has been extremely productive especially in the area of interpretation theory, including the following two major break-throughs. One is the derivation of an integral equation for time-dependent power spectra, which unified all the existing theories on seismic scattering (including the radiative transfer theory for total energy and single and multiple scattering theories based on the ray approach) and offers more complete and economical solutions to the problems of seismic scattering and attenuation. The other is the new formula for synthetic seismograms for layered media with irregular interfaces, combining the T-matrix method for an arbitrary shaped inclusion and the method of global generalized reflection/transmission coefficients for layered media. Both breakthroughs will enable us to deal with seismic observations in complex earth structures more efficiently and accurately. In the area of experimental studies, we discovered seismic guided waves trapped in the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. 54 refs., 14 figs.

  13. Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Patrick C; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-12-27

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  14. Detecting regime shifts in marine systems with limited biological data: An example from southeast Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litzow, Michael A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Frusher, Stewart D.; Dann, Peter; Tuck, Geoffrey N.

    2016-02-01

    The ability to detect ecological regime shifts in a data-limited setting was investigated, using southeast Australian ecosystems as a model. Community variability was summarized for 1968-2008 with the first two principal components (PCs) of recruitment estimates for six fish stocks and reproductive parameters for four seabird species; regional climate was summarized for 1953-2008 with the first two PCs for three parameters (sea surface temperature [SST], sea surface salinity, surface nitrate) measured at two stations; and basin-scale climate variability was summarized for 1950-2012 with mean South Pacific SST and the first two PCs of detrended South Pacific SST. The first two biology PCs explained 45% of total community variability. The first two PCs of basin-scale SST showed abrupt shifts similar to "regime" behavior observed in other ocean basins, and the first PC of basin-scale SST showed significant covariation with the first PC of regional climate. Together, these results are consistent with the strong community variability and decadal-scale red noise climatic variability associated with Northern Hemisphere regime shifts. However, statistical model selection showed that the first two PCs of regional climate and the first PC of biology time series all exhibited linear change, rather than abrupt shifts. This result is consistent with previous studies documenting rapid linear change in the climate and biology of southeast Australian shelf ecosystems, and we conclude that there is no evidence for regime shift behavior in the region's ecology. However, analysis of a large set of previously-published biological time series from the North Pacific (n = 64) suggests that studies using fewer than ∼30 biological time series, such as this one, may be unable to detect regime shifts. Thus we conclude that the nature of ecological variability in the region cannot be determined with available data. The development of additional long-term biological observations is needed

  15. Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

    2017-04-01

    By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem

  16. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  17. Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level

    PubMed Central

    Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan‐Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice‐cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint‐level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A‐Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest‐magnitude cloud‐sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near‐surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations. PMID:27818851

  18. Characterizing Past and Future Flood Regimes of California's Cosumnes River: A Hydroinformatic Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whipple, A. A.; Condon, L. E.; Viers, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    As the only major undammed river on the west slope of California's Sierra Nevada, with over 100 years of USGS streamflow data, and the location of several floodplain conservation and restoration efforts, the Cosumnes River offers a unique opportunity to study connections between a river's flow regime and floodplain functions. Flow regime, including frequency and magnitude of floods, and its interaction with the surrounding landscape are primary drivers of floodplain structure and ecosystem dynamics. However, these floodplain processes and functions are often altered by water management schemes, land uses, and hydroclimatic alteration induced by climate warming. Improved understanding of ecologically relevant aspects of flow regime and potential future alteration is central to managing floodplain ecosystems and their services. In order to describe the inundation regime of the lower Cosumnes River floodplain, California, this research moves beyond flood frequency analysis to examine other flood event characteristics and identify flood types using statistical cluster analysis. Floods are characterized using metrics of ecological relevance, such as magnitude, timing, duration, and total volume. To explore potential effects of climate change, non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value models are fit to historical floods based on temperature and precipitation at the monthly scale. Temperature and precipitation variables from downscaled Global Climate Models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5 are then applied to develop flood distributions for climate change scenarios. These results are used to adjust the magnitude of clustered flood events identified in the historical record, and the sensitivity of the inundation regime to these changes is assessed. This research provides useful scientific insights for management and restoration efforts within the Cosumnes watershed and demonstrates the utility of applying these methods to other floodplain systems.

  19. Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  20. The Statistical Drake Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maccone, Claudio

    2010-12-01

    We provide the statistical generalization of the Drake equation. From a simple product of seven positive numbers, the Drake equation is now turned into the product of seven positive random variables. We call this "the Statistical Drake Equation". The mathematical consequences of this transformation are then derived. The proof of our results is based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics. In loose terms, the CLT states that the sum of any number of independent random variables, each of which may be ARBITRARILY distributed, approaches a Gaussian (i.e. normal) random variable. This is called the Lyapunov Form of the CLT, or the Lindeberg Form of the CLT, depending on the mathematical constraints assumed on the third moments of the various probability distributions. In conclusion, we show that: The new random variable N, yielding the number of communicating civilizations in the Galaxy, follows the LOGNORMAL distribution. Then, as a consequence, the mean value of this lognormal distribution is the ordinary N in the Drake equation. The standard deviation, mode, and all the moments of this lognormal N are also found. The seven factors in the ordinary Drake equation now become seven positive random variables. The probability distribution of each random variable may be ARBITRARY. The CLT in the so-called Lyapunov or Lindeberg forms (that both do not assume the factors to be identically distributed) allows for that. In other words, the CLT "translates" into our statistical Drake equation by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution for each factor. This is both physically realistic and practically very useful, of course. An application of our statistical Drake equation then follows. The (average) DISTANCE between any two neighboring and communicating civilizations in the Galaxy may be shown to be inversely proportional to the cubic root of N. Then, in our approach, this distance becomes a new random variable. We derive the relevant probability density

  1. The Statistical Fermi Paradox

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maccone, C.

    In this paper is provided the statistical generalization of the Fermi paradox. The statistics of habitable planets may be based on a set of ten (and possibly more) astrobiological requirements first pointed out by Stephen H. Dole in his book Habitable planets for man (1964). The statistical generalization of the original and by now too simplistic Dole equation is provided by replacing a product of ten positive numbers by the product of ten positive random variables. This is denoted the SEH, an acronym standing for “Statistical Equation for Habitables”. The proof in this paper is based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the sum of any number of independent random variables, each of which may be ARBITRARILY distributed, approaches a Gaussian (i.e. normal) random variable (Lyapunov form of the CLT). It is then shown that: 1. The new random variable NHab, yielding the number of habitables (i.e. habitable planets) in the Galaxy, follows the log- normal distribution. By construction, the mean value of this log-normal distribution is the total number of habitable planets as given by the statistical Dole equation. 2. The ten (or more) astrobiological factors are now positive random variables. The probability distribution of each random variable may be arbitrary. The CLT in the so-called Lyapunov or Lindeberg forms (that both do not assume the factors to be identically distributed) allows for that. In other words, the CLT "translates" into the SEH by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution for each factor. This is both astrobiologically realistic and useful for any further investigations. 3. By applying the SEH it is shown that the (average) distance between any two nearby habitable planets in the Galaxy may be shown to be inversely proportional to the cubic root of NHab. This distance is denoted by new random variable D. The relevant probability density function is derived, which was named the "Maccone distribution" by Paul Davies in

  2. Statistical properties of chaotic dynamical systems which exhibit strange attractors

    SciTech Connect

    Jensen, R.V.; Oberman, C.R.

    1981-07-01

    A path integral method is developed for the calculation of the statistical properties of turbulent dynamical systems. The method is applicable to conservative systems which exhibit a transition to stochasticity as well as dissipative systems which exhibit strange attractors. A specific dissipative mapping is considered in detail which models the dynamics of a Brownian particle in a wave field with a broad frequency spectrum. Results are presented for the low order statistical moments for three turbulent regimes which exhibit strange attractors corresponding to strong, intermediate, and weak collisional damping.

  3. Statistical Inference: The Big Picture.

    PubMed

    Kass, Robert E

    2011-02-01

    Statistics has moved beyond the frequentist-Bayesian controversies of the past. Where does this leave our ability to interpret results? I suggest that a philosophy compatible with statistical practice, labelled here statistical pragmatism, serves as a foundation for inference. Statistical pragmatism is inclusive and emphasizes the assumptions that connect statistical models with observed data. I argue that introductory courses often mis-characterize the process of statistical inference and I propose an alternative "big picture" depiction.

  4. Seasonal forecast quality of the West African monsoon rainfall regimes by multiple forecast systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Luis Ricardo Lage; García-Serrano, Javier; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

    2014-07-01

    A targeted methodology to study the West African monsoon (WAM) rainfall variability is considered where monthly rainfall is averaged over 10°W-10°E to take into account the latitudinal migration and temporal distribution of the WAM summer rainfall. Two observational rainfall data sets and a large number of quasi-operational forecast systems, among them two systems from the European Seasonal to Interannual Prediction initiative and six systems from the North American Multi-model Ensemble project, are used in this research. The two leading modes of the WAM rainfall variability, namely, the Guinean and Sahelian regimes, are estimated by applying principal component analysis (PCA) on the longitudinally averaged precipitation. The PCA is performed upon the observations and each forecast system and lead time separately. A statistical model based on simple linear regression using sea surface temperature indices as predictors is considered both as a benchmark and an additional forecast system. The combination of the dynamical forecast systems and the statistical model is performed using different methods of combination. It is shown that most forecast systems capture the main features associated with the Guinean regime, that is, rainfall located mainly south of 10°N and the northward migration of rainfall over the season. On the other hand, only a fraction of the forecast systems capture the characteristics of the rainfall signal north of 10°N associated with the Sahelian regime. A simple statistical model proves to be of great value and outperforms most state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems when predicting the principal components associated with the Guinean and Sahelian regimes. Combining all forecast systems do not lead to improved forecasts when compared to the best single forecast system, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts System 4 (S4). In fact, S4 is far better than any forecast system when predicting the variability of the WAM rainfall

  5. Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

    2014-05-01

    Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the

  6. Statistical evaluation of forecasts.

    PubMed

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  7. Pain: A Statistical Account

    PubMed Central

    Thacker, Michael A.; Moseley, G. Lorimer

    2017-01-01

    Perception is seen as a process that utilises partial and noisy information to construct a coherent understanding of the world. Here we argue that the experience of pain is no different; it is based on incomplete, multimodal information, which is used to estimate potential bodily threat. We outline a Bayesian inference model, incorporating the key components of cue combination, causal inference, and temporal integration, which highlights the statistical problems in everyday perception. It is from this platform that we are able to review the pain literature, providing evidence from experimental, acute, and persistent phenomena to demonstrate the advantages of adopting a statistical account in pain. Our probabilistic conceptualisation suggests a principles-based view of pain, explaining a broad range of experimental and clinical findings and making testable predictions. PMID:28081134

  8. Statistical evaluation of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mader, Malenka; Mader, Wolfgang; Gluckman, Bruce J.; Timmer, Jens; Schelter, Björn

    2014-08-01

    Reliable forecasts of extreme but rare events, such as earthquakes, financial crashes, and epileptic seizures, would render interventions and precautions possible. Therefore, forecasting methods have been developed which intend to raise an alarm if an extreme event is about to occur. In order to statistically validate the performance of a prediction system, it must be compared to the performance of a random predictor, which raises alarms independent of the events. Such a random predictor can be obtained by bootstrapping or analytically. We propose an analytic statistical framework which, in contrast to conventional methods, allows for validating independently the sensitivity and specificity of a forecasting method. Moreover, our method accounts for the periods during which an event has to remain absent or occur after a respective forecast.

  9. Statistics of intense turbulent vorticity events.

    PubMed

    Moriconi, L

    2004-08-01

    We investigate statistical properties of vorticity fluctuations in fully developed turbulence, which are known to exhibit a strong intermittent behavior. Taking as the starting point the Navier-Stokes equations with a random force term correlated at large scales, we obtain in the high Reynolds number regime a closed analytical expression for the probability distribution function of an arbitrary component of the vorticity field. The central idea underlying the analysis consists in the restriction of the velocity configurational phase-space to a particular sector where the rate of strain and the rotation tensors can be locally regarded as slow and fast degrees of freedom, respectively. This prescription is implemented along the Martin-Siggia-Rose functional framework, whereby instantons and perturbations around them are taken into account within a steepest-descent approach.

  10. Statistical Mechanics and Thermodynamics of Viral Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Barbara; Kaufman, James

    Using methods drawn from physics we study the life cycle of viruses. We analyze a model of viral infection and evolution using the ``grand canonical ensemble'' and formalisms from statistical mechanics and thermodynamics. Using this approach we determine possible genetic states of a model virus and host as a function of two independent pressures-immune response and system temperature. We show the system has a real thermodynamic temperature, and discover a new phase transition between a positive temperature regime of normal replication and a negative temperature ``disordered'' phase of the virus. We distinguish this from previous observations of a phase transition that arises as a function of mutation rate. From an evolutionary biology point of view, at steady state the viruses naturally evolve to distinct quasispecies. The approach used here could be refined to apply to real biological systems, perhaps providing insight into immune escape, the emergence of novel pathogens and other results of viral evolution.

  11. 1979 DOE statistical symposium

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, D.A.; Truett T.

    1980-09-01

    The 1979 DOE Statistical Symposium was the fifth in the series of annual symposia designed to bring together statisticians and other interested parties who are actively engaged in helping to solve the nation's energy problems. The program included presentations of technical papers centered around exploration and disposal of nuclear fuel, general energy-related topics, and health-related issues, and workshops on model evaluation, risk analysis, analysis of large data sets, and resource estimation.

  12. Relativistic statistical arbitrage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wissner-Gross, A. D.; Freer, C. E.

    2010-11-01

    Recent advances in high-frequency financial trading have made light propagation delays between geographically separated exchanges relevant. Here we show that there exist optimal locations from which to coordinate the statistical arbitrage of pairs of spacelike separated securities, and calculate a representative map of such locations on Earth. Furthermore, trading local securities along chains of such intermediate locations results in a novel econophysical effect, in which the relativistic propagation of tradable information is effectively slowed or stopped by arbitrage.

  13. Statistical Methods in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verde, L.

    2010-03-01

    The advent of large data-set in cosmology has meant that in the past 10 or 20 years our knowledge and understanding of the Universe has changed not only quantitatively but also, and most importantly, qualitatively. Cosmologists rely on data where a host of useful information is enclosed, but is encoded in a non-trivial way. The challenges in extracting this information must be overcome to make the most of a large experimental effort. Even after having converged to a standard cosmological model (the LCDM model) we should keep in mind that this model is described by 10 or more physical parameters and if we want to study deviations from it, the number of parameters is even larger. Dealing with such a high dimensional parameter space and finding parameters constraints is a challenge on itself. Cosmologists want to be able to compare and combine different data sets both for testing for possible disagreements (which could indicate new physics) and for improving parameter determinations. Finally, cosmologists in many cases want to find out, before actually doing the experiment, how much one would be able to learn from it. For all these reasons, sophisiticated statistical techniques are being employed in cosmology, and it has become crucial to know some statistical background to understand recent literature in the field. I will introduce some statistical tools that any cosmologist should know about in order to be able to understand recently published results from the analysis of cosmological data sets. I will not present a complete and rigorous introduction to statistics as there are several good books which are reported in the references. The reader should refer to those.

  14. Estimation of metabolic heat production and methane emission in Sahiwal and Karan Fries heifers under different feeding regimes

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Sunil; Singh, S. V.; Pandey, Priyanka; Kumar, Narendra; Hooda, O. K.

    2016-01-01

    Aim: The objective of this study was designed to estimate the metabolic heat production and methane emission in Sahiwal and Karan Fries (Holstein-Friesian X Tharparkar) heifers under two different feeding regimes, i.e., feeding regime-1 as per the National Research Council (NRC) (2001) and feeding regime-2 having 15% higher energy (supplementation of molasses) than NRC (2001). Materials and Methods: Six (n = 6) healthy heifers of Sahiwal and Karan Fries with 18-24 months of age were selected from Indian Council of Agricultural Research-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal. An initial 15 days was maintained under feeding regime-1 and feeding regime-2 as adaptation period; actual experiment was conducted from 16th day onward for next 15 days. At the end of feeding regimes (on day 15th and 16th), expired air and volume were collected in Douglas bag for two consecutive days (morning [6:00 am] and evening [4:00 pm]). The fraction of methane and expired air volume were measured by methane analyzer and wet test meter, respectively. The oxygen consumption and carbon dioxide production were measured by iWorx LabScribe2. Results: The heat production (kcal/day) was significantly (p<0.05) higher in feeding regime-2 as compared to feeding regimen-1 in both breeds. The heat production per unit metabolic body weight was numerically higher in feeding regime-1 than feeding regime-2; however, the values were found statistically non-significant (p>0.05). The energy loss as methane (%) from total heat production was significantly (p<0.05) higher in feeding regime-1. The body weight (kg), metabolic body weight (W0.75), and basal metabolic rate (kcal/kg0.75) were significantly (p<0.05) higher in feeding regime-2 in both breeds. Conclusions: This study indicates that higher energy diet by supplementing molasses may reduce energy loss as methane and enhance the growth of Sahiwal and Karan Fries heifers. PMID:27284226

  15. Statistical Challenges of Astronomy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feigelson, Eric D.; Babu, G. Jogesh

    Digital sky surveys, data from orbiting telescopes, and advances in computation have increased the quantity and quality of astronomical data by several orders of magnitude in recent years. Making sense of this wealth of data requires sophisticated statistical and data analytic techniques. Fortunately, statistical methodologies have similarly made great strides in recent years. Powerful synergies thus emerge when astronomers and statisticians join in examining astrostatistical problems and approaches. The volume focuses on several themes: · The increasing power of Bayesian approaches to modeling astronomical data · The growth of enormous databases, leading an emerging federated Virtual Observatory, and their impact on modern astronomical research · Statistical modeling of critical datasets, such as galaxy clustering and fluctuations in the microwave background radiation, leading to a new era of precision cosmology · Methodologies for uncovering clusters and patterns in multivariate data · The characterization of multiscale patterns in imaging and time series data As in earlier volumes in this series, research contributions discussing topics in one field are joined with commentary from scholars in the other. Short contributed papers covering dozens of astrostatistical topics are also included.

  16. Statistics in fusion experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeill, D. H.

    1997-11-01

    Since the reasons for the variability in data from plasma experiments are often unknown or uncontrollable, statistical methods must be applied. Reliable interpretation and public accountability require full data sets. Two examples of data misrepresentation at PPPL are analyzed: Te >100 eV on S-1 spheromak.(M. Yamada, Nucl. Fusion 25, 1327 (1985); reports to DoE; etc.) The reported high values (statistical artifacts of Thomson scattering measurements) were selected from a mass of data with an average of 40 eV or less. ``Correlated'' spectroscopic data were meaningless. (2) Extrapolation to Q >=0.5 for DT in TFTR.(D. Meade et al., IAEA Baltimore (1990), V. 1, p. 9; H. P. Furth, Statements to U. S. Congress (1989).) The DD yield used there was the highest through 1990 (>= 50% above average) and the DT to DD power ratio used was about twice any published value. Average DD yields and published yield ratios scale to Q<0.15 for DT, in accord with the observed performance over the last 3 1/2 years. Press reports of outlier data from TFTR have obscured the fact that the DT behavior follows from trivial scaling of the DD data. Good practice in future fusion research would have confidence intervals and other descriptive statistics accompanying reported numerical values (cf. JAMA).

  17. An objective weather-regime-based verification of WRF-RTFDDA forecasts over the eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita; Liu, Yubao; Pan, Linlin; Sheu, Rong-Shyang

    2014-05-01

    Numerical weather prediction in the eastern Mediterranean is very challenging because of the region's unique geography, which includes strong land-sea contrast, complex topography, highly varied vegetation, and mosaic of urban and desert areas. This geographic heterogeneity often results in complex and dramatically different mesoscale and microscale flows underdifferent synoptic situations. WRF-RTFDDA (Weather Research and Forecasting - Realtime four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting system) is a WRF-based multi-scale 4-dimensional weather analysis and prediction system. It effectively assimilates diverse types of direct, retrieved and non-direct observations available at irregular time and locations using a hybrid Newtonian relaxation and 3DVar data assimilation procedure to initiate regional weather forecast. The hybrid data assimilation and forecasting system has been implemented in a triple-nested WRF configuration with 30, 10, and 3.3 km horizontal grid spacing over the eastern Mediterranean. Analysis and forecasts have been run for a one-year long period, covering four seasons that include a wide variety of synoptic weather regimes. Objective verification is conducted to study the model performance under different weather regime. The Alpert et al. (2001) weather-regime classification method is adopted to classify the synoptic weather into 19 classes according to daily surface synoptic flows that include cyclones, highs and troughs. The aim of this paper is to investigate the model skill under different synoptic weather regimes. Objective verification statistics including Bias, RMSE and MAE of main weather variables are calculated by comparing the model data with soundings and surface observations for each weather regime. Preliminary examination of the verification scores shows significant differences of model forecast accuracy under different weather situations. The RMSE of 24h forecasts of 2-m temperatures varies from 1.6 C to 2.3C among

  18. The Influence of Atmospheric Transport Regimes on Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) Concentrations Measured at Zeppelin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ubl, S.; Scheringer, M.; Hungerbuehler, K.

    2013-12-01

    Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent organic pollutants (POPs) of exclusively anthropogenic origin. PCBs are toxic, bioaccumulative and have a great potential of long-range transport. PCBs have been banned globally under the Stockholm convention on POPs since 2004. We analysed times series of 21 PCB congeners ranging from PCB 18 to PCB 187 that have been measured at Zeppelin (Spitsbergen) since 1993. Although primary PCB emissions have been steadily reduced, a strong decreasing trend is not observed in the PCB concentrations in the Arctic. In order to investigate the influence of atmospheric transport on the PCB concentrations and to identify the potential source regions of the PCBs, we calculated footprints for the Zeppelin measurement site using the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model FLEXPART. Footprints can be interpreted as potential source regions where PCBs may have been picked up. Based on various statistical analyses of the footprints (cluster analysis, k-medoid, silhouette), we identified the prevailing transport regimes for Zeppelin which were represented by 5 different clusters. Cluster 1 and 3 belong to transport regimes with highest residence times over Europe (cluster 1) and North-America (cluster 3); both transport regimes dominantly occur from late fall to early spring. Clusters 2 and 4 represent air masses with surface contact predominantly over the Atlantic Ocean (cluster 2), only occurring during the summer months, and the Arctic Ocean (cluster 4) mainly observed in spring and autumn, but also in summer. Cluster 5 is representative of air originating from the Pacific ocean and eastern Asia; this transport regime occurs mainly in spring and fall. We grouped the PCB concentrations measured at Zeppelin according to the 5 different clusters and calculated the median for each cluster and PCB congener. The median for medium to heavier PCBs is highest for cluster 1 and 3, which represent transport regimes over the continent, suggesting that

  19. Statistical Inference at Work: Statistical Process Control as an Example

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bakker, Arthur; Kent, Phillip; Derry, Jan; Noss, Richard; Hoyles, Celia

    2008-01-01

    To characterise statistical inference in the workplace this paper compares a prototypical type of statistical inference at work, statistical process control (SPC), with a type of statistical inference that is better known in educational settings, hypothesis testing. Although there are some similarities between the reasoning structure involved in…

  20. The seismology of geothermal regimes. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Aki, K.

    1997-04-01

    The authors have been developing seismological interpretation theory and methods applicable to complex structures encountered in geothermal areas for a better understanding of the earth`s geothermal regimes. The questions the y have addressed in their research may be summarized as ``What is going on in the earth`s crust under tectonically active regions; what are the structures and processes responsible for such activities as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; and how can one capture their essence effectively by means of seismological studies?`` First, the authors found clear evidence for localization of scattered seismic energy in the deep magmatic system of the volcano on the island of Reunion in the Indian Ocean. The seismic coda of local earthquakes show concentrated energy in the intrusive zones as late as 30 to 40 seconds after the origin time. This offers a very effective method for defining a zone of strong heterogeneity on a regional scale, complementary to the high resolution study using trapped modes as pursued in the past project. Secondly, the authors identified about 700 long-period events with various frequencies and durations from the data collected during the past 5 years which included three episodes of eruption. They are applying a finite-element method to the simplest event with the longest period and the shortest duration in order to find the location, geometry and physical properties of their source deterministically. The preliminary result described here suggests that their sources may be a horizontally lying magma-filled crack at a shallow depth under the summit area. In addition to the above work on the Reunion data, they have continued the theoretical and observational studies of attenuation and scattering of seismic waves.

  1. CSDP: Seismology of continental thermal regime

    SciTech Connect

    Aki, K.

    1989-04-01

    This is a progress report for the past one year of research (year 2 of 5-year project) under the project titled CSDP: Seismology of Continental Thermal Regime'', in which we proposed to develop seismological interpretation theory and methods applicable to complex structures encountered in continental geothermal areas and apply them to several candidate sites for the Continental Scientific Drilling Project. During the past year, two Ph.D. thesis works were completed under the present project. One is a USC thesis on seismic wave propagation in anisotropic media with application to defining fractures in the earth. The other is a MIT thesis on seismic Q and velocity structure for the magma-hydrothermal system of the Valles Caldera, New Mexico. The P.I. co-organized the first International Workshop on Volcanic Seismology at Capri, Italy in October 1988, and presented the keynote paper on the state-of-art of volcanic seismology''. We presented another paper at the workshop on Assorted Seismic Signals from Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. Another international meeting, namely, the Chapman Conference on seismic anisotropy in the earth's crust at Berkeley, California in May 1988, was co-organized by the co-P.I. (P.C.L), and we presented our work on seismic waves in heterogeneous and anisotropic media. Adding the publications and presentations made in the past year to the list for the preceding year, the following table lists 21 papers published, submitted or presented in the past two years of the present project. 65 refs., 334 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Extractive Regimes: Toward a Better Understanding of Indonesian Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gellert, Paul K.

    2010-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of an extractive regime to understand Indonesia's developmental trajectory from 1966 to 1998. The concept contributes to world-systems, globalization, and commodity-based approaches to understanding peripheral development. An extractive regime is defined by its reliance on extraction of multiple natural resources…

  3. A Tale of Two Regimes: Instrumentality and Commons Access

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toly, Noah J.

    2005-01-01

    Technical developments have profound social and environmental impacts. Both are observed in the implications of regimes of instrumentality for commons access regimes. Establishing social, material, ecological, intellectual, and moral infrastructures, technologies are partly constitutive of commons access and may militate against governance…

  4. Disciplinary Regimes of "Care" and Complementary Alternative Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Pat; Pennacchia, Jodie

    2016-01-01

    In schools, the notion of "care" is often synonymous with welfare and disciplinary regimes. Drawing on Foucault, and a study of alternative education (AE) across the UK, and looking in depth at two cases of complementary AE, we identify three types of disciplinary regimes at work in schools: (1) dominant performative reward and…

  5. FISHER INFORMATION AS A METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE SYSTEM REGIMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The important question in sustainability is not whether the world is sustainable, but whether a humanly acceptable regime of the world is sustainable. We propose Fisher Information as a metric for the sustainability of dynamic regimes in complex systems. The quantity now known ...

  6. Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

  7. Plasma Physics Regimes in Tokamaks with Li Walls

    SciTech Connect

    L.E. Zakharo; N.N. Gorelenkov; R.B. White; S.I. Krasheninnikov; G.V. Pereverzev

    2003-08-21

    Low recycling regimes with a plasma limited by a lithium wall surface suggest enhanced stability and energy confinement, both necessary for tokamak reactors. These regimes could make ignition feasible in compact tokamaks. Ignited Spherical Tokamaks (IST), self-sufficient in the bootstrap current, are introduced as a necessary step for development of the physics and technology of power reactors.

  8. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    PubMed Central

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  9. FISHER INFORMATION AS A METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE REGIMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The important question in sustainability is not whether the world is sustainable, but whether a humanly acceptable regime of the world is sustainable. We propose Fisher Information as a metric for the sustainability of dynamic regimes in complex systems. The quantity now known ...

  10. Magnetised Kelvin-Helmholtz instability in the intermediate regime between subsonic and supersonic regimes

    SciTech Connect

    Henri, P.; Califano, F.; Pegoraro, F.; Faganello, M.

    2012-07-15

    The understanding of the dynamics at play at the Earth's Magnetopause, the boundary separating the Earth's magnetosphere and the solar wind plasmas, is of primary importance for space plasma modeling. We focus our attention on the low latitude flank of the magnetosphere where the velocity shear between the magnetosheath and the magnetospheric plasmas is the energetic source of Kelvin-Helmholtz instability. On the shoulder of the resulting vortex chain, different secondary instabilities are at play depending on the local plasma parameters and compete with the vortex pairing process. Most important, secondary instabilities, among other magnetic reconnection, control the plasma mixing as well as the entry of solar wind plasma in the magnetosphere. We make use of a two-fluid model, including the Hall term and the electron mass in the generalized Ohm's law, to study the 2D non-linear evolution of the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability at the magnetosheath-magnetosphere interface, in the intermediate regime between subsonic and supersonic regimes. We study the saturation mechanisms, depending on the density jump across the shear layer and the magnetic field strength in the plane. In the presence of a weak in-plane magnetic field, the dynamics of the Kelvin-Helmholtz rolled-up vortices self-consistently generates thin current sheets where reconnection instability eventually enables fast reconnection to develop. Such a system enables to study guide field multiple-island collisionless magnetic reconnection as embedded in a large-scale dynamic system, unlike the classical static, ad hoc reconnection setups. In this regime, reconnection is shown to inhibit the vortex pairing process. This study provides a clear example of nonlinear, cross-scale, collisionless plasma dynamics.

  11. Phase transition in the collisionless damping regime for wave-particle interaction

    PubMed

    Firpo; Elskens

    2000-04-10

    Gibbs statistical mechanics is derived for the Hamiltonian system coupling a wave to N particles self-consistently. This identifies Landau damping with a regime where a second order phase transition occurs. For nonequilibrium initial data with warm particles, a critical initial wave intensity is found: above it, thermodynamics predicts a finite wave amplitude in the limit N-->infinity; below it, the equilibrium amplitude vanishes. Simulations support these predictions providing new insight into the long-time nonlinear fate of the wave due to Landau damping in plasmas.

  12. Transition from column to micropinch regime in Z-pinches

    SciTech Connect

    Engel, A.; Lebert, R.; Koshelev, K. N.; Sidelnikov, Yu. V.; Gavrilescu, C.; Neff, W.

    1997-05-05

    Plasma focus and Z-pinches are known to be intensive sources of K-ion radiation. This radiation is observed in two different regimes of compression: column and micropinch. Appearance of these regimes depends on combination of discharge circuit parameter and element composition of plasma. Column regime is typical for low current discharges operating in low Z gases. Micropinch regime, which represents a development of ''neck'' type instabilities in a presence of strong radiation losses, is typical for heavy ion plasma, i.e. vacuum spark or plasma focus with admixture of heavy gases. Transition from column to micropinch mode has been investigated experimentally. It was found that appearance of either regime can be quantitatively described by a distinction parameter depending on pinch current, particle density and used element.

  13. Investigation of the regimes of mixing of superconducting tunneling structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalashnikov, K. V.; Artanov, A. A.; Filippenko, L. V.; Koshelets, V. P.

    2016-11-01

    The regimes of operation of a superconductor-insulator-superconductor tunnel junction based on three-layer structures Nb/AlOx/Nb and Nb/AlN/NbN as a harmonic mixer (for frequencies of the order of 600 and 20 GHz, respectively) and a frequency up-converter (in the frequency range from 0.1 to 5.0 GHz) have been investigated experimentally. The quasiparticle and Josephson mixing regimes have been compared. It has been shown that, in some practical applications, such as the use of the superconductor-insulator-superconductor junction as a cryogenic harmonic phase detector, the Josephson mixing regime is more preferable, because it can provide a higher signal and a greater signal-to-noise ratio as compared to the quasiparticle mixing regime. It has also been demonstrated that the Josephson mixing regime is promising for the use in signal multiplexing systems for superconducting detectors.

  14. Truth, Damn Truth, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velleman, Paul F.

    2008-01-01

    Statisticians and Statistics teachers often have to push back against the popular impression that Statistics teaches how to lie with data. Those who believe incorrectly that Statistics is solely a branch of Mathematics (and thus algorithmic), often see the use of judgment in Statistics as evidence that we do indeed manipulate our results. In the…

  15. Experimental Mathematics and Computational Statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Bailey, David H.; Borwein, Jonathan M.

    2009-04-30

    The field of statistics has long been noted for techniques to detect patterns and regularities in numerical data. In this article we explore connections between statistics and the emerging field of 'experimental mathematics'. These includes both applications of experimental mathematics in statistics, as well as statistical methods applied to computational mathematics.

  16. Statistical Characterization of the Flow Structure in the Rhine Valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Philippe, Philippe; Debas, Alain M.; Haeberli, Christian; Flamant, Pierre H.

    The flow structure at the intersection between the Rhine and the Seez valleys nearthe Swiss city of Bad Ragaz has been documented by means of wind and pressuremeasurements collected from 9 September to 10 November 1999 during the MesoscaleAlpine Programme (MAP) experiment. To understand better the dynamics of theageostrophic winds that develop in this part of the Rhine valley, some key questionsare answered in this paper including the following: (i) How does air blow at theintersection of the Rhine and Seez valleys? and (ii) what are the dynamical processes(mechanical or thermal) driving the flow circulations in the valleys?Statistical analysis of the wind and pressure patterns at synoptic scale and at the scaleof the valley shows that five main flow patterns, SE/S, NW/W, NW/N, NW/S, SE/N(wind direction in the Seez valley/wind direction in the Rhine valley) prevail. The SE/S regime is the flow splitting situation. It is mainly driven by a strong pressure gradient across the Alps leading to foehn, even though some nocturnal cases are generated bylocal thermal gradients. The NW/W and NW/N regimes are mechanically forced bythe synoptic pressure gradient (as the flow splitting case). The difference between thetwo regimes is due to the synoptic flow direction [westerly (northerly) synoptic flowfor the NW/W (NW/N) regime], showing that the Rhine valley (particularly from BadRagaz to Lake Constance) is less efficient in channelling the flow than the Seez valley.The NW/S (occurring mainly during nighttime) and SE/N (occurring mainly duringdaytime) regimes are mainly katabatic flows. However, the SE/N regime is also partlyforced at the synoptic scale during the foehn case that occurred between 18 October and 20 October 1999, with a complex layered vertical structure.

  17. Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balashov, Nikolay V.; Thompson, Anne M.; Young, George S.

    2017-01-01

    The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

  18. Who Needs Statistics? | Poster

    Cancer.gov

    You may know the feeling. You have collected a lot of new data on an important experiment. Now you are faced with multiple groups of data, a sea of numbers, and a deadline for submitting your paper to a peer-reviewed journal. And you are not sure which data are relevant, or even the best way to present them. The statisticians at Data Management Services (DMS) know how to help. This small group of experts provides a wide array of statistical and mathematical consulting services to the scientific community at NCI at Frederick and NCI-Bethesda.

  19. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-10-01

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report is a monthly publication that provides current international oil data. This report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, exports and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world, in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries.

  20. NASA Pocket Statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    Pocket Statistics is published for the use of NASA managers and their staff. Included herein is Administrative and Organizational information, summaries of Space Flight Activity including the NASA Major Launch Record, and NASA Procurement, Financial, and Manpower data. The NASA Major Launch Record includes all launches of Scout class and larger vehicles. Vehicle and spacecraft development flights are also included in the Major Launch Record. Shuttle missions are counted as one launch and one payload, where free flying payloads are not involved. Satellites deployed from the cargo bay of the Shuttle and placed in a separate orbit or trajectory are counted as an additional payload.

  1. NASA Pocket Statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1995-01-01

    NASA Pocket Statistics is published for the use of NASA managers and their staff. Included herein is Administrative and Organizational information, summaries of Space Flight Activity including the NASA Major Launch Record, and NASA Procurement, Financial, and Manpower data. The NASA Major Launch Record includes all launches of Scout class and larger vehicles. Vehicle and spacecraft development flights are also included in the Major Launch Record. Shuttle missions are counted as one launch and one payload, where free flying payloads are not involved. Satellites deployed from the cargo bay of the Shuttle and placed in a separate orbit or trajectory are counted as an additional payload.

  2. NASA Pocket Statistics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    This booklet of pocket statistics includes the 1996 NASA Major Launch Record, NASA Procurement, Financial, and Workforce data. The NASA Major Launch Record includes all launches of Scout class and larger vehicles. Vehicle and spacecraft development flights are also included in the Major Luanch Record. Shuttle missions are counted as one launch and one payload, where free flying payloads are not involved. Satellites deployed from the cargo bay of the Shuttle and placed in a separate orbit or trajectory are counted as an additional payload.

  3. Mercury's thermal evolution and core crystallization regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rivoldini, A.; Van Hoolst, T.; Dumberry, M.; Steinle-Neumann, G.

    2015-10-01

    Unlike the Earth, where the liquid core isentrope is shallower than the core liquidus, at the lower pressures inside Mercury's core the isentrope can be steeper than the melting temperature. As a consequence, upon cooling, the isentrope may first enter a solid stability field near the core mantle boundary and produce ironrich snow that sinks under gravity and produces buoyant upwellings of iron depleted fluid. Similar to bottom up crystallization, crystallization initiated near the top might generate sufficient buoyancy flux to drive magnetic field generation by compositional convection.In this study we model Mercury's thermal evolution by taking into account the formation of iron-rich snow to assess when the conditions for an internally magnetic field can be satisfied. We employ a thermodynamic consistent description of the iron high-pressure phase diagram and thermoelastic properties of iron alloys as well as the most recent data about the thermal conductivity of core materials. We use a 1-dimensional parametrized thermal evolution model in the stagnant lid regime for the mantle (e.g. [1]) that is coupled to the core. The model for the mantle takes into account the formation of the crust due to melting at depth. Mantle convection is driven by heat producing radioactive elements, heat loss from secular cooling and from the heat supplied by the core. The heat generated inside the core is mainly provided from secular cooling, from the latent heat released at iron freezing, and from gravitational energy resulting form the release of light elements at the inner core-outer core boundary as well as from the sinking of iron-rich snow and subsequent upwellings of light elements in the snow zone. If the heat flow out of the core is smaller than the heat transported along the core isentrope a thermal boundary will from at the top of the outer core. To determine the extension of the convecting region inside the liquid core we calculate the convective power [2]. Finally, we

  4. Human influence on California fire regimes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Syphard, A.D.; Radeloff, V.C.; Keeley, J.E.; Hawbaker, T.J.; Clayton, M.K.; Stewart, S.I.; Hammer, R.B.

    2007-01-01

    Periodic wildfire maintains the integrity and species composition of many ecosystems, including the mediterranean-climate shrublands of California. However, human activities alter natural fire regimes, which can lead to cascading ecological effects. Increased human ignitions at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) have recently gained attention, but fire activity and risk are typically estimated using only biophysical variables. Our goal was to determine how humans influence fire in California and to examine whether this influence was linear, by relating contemporary (2000) and historic (1960-2000) fire data to both human and biophysical variables. Data for the human variables included fine-resolution maps of the WUI produced using housing density and land cover data. Interface WUI, where development abuts wildland vegetation, was differentiated from intermix WUI, where development intermingles with wildland vegetation. Additional explanatory variables included distance to WUI, population density, road density, vegetation type, and ecoregion. All data were summarized at the county level and analyzed using bivariate and multiple regression methods. We found highly significant relationships between humans and fire on the contemporary landscape, and our models explained fire frequency (R2 = 0.72) better than area burned (R2 = 0.50). Population density, intermix WUI, and distance to WUI explained the most variability in fire frequency, suggesting that the spatial pattern of development may be an important variable to consider when estimating fire risk. We found nonlinear effects such that fire frequency and area burned were highest at intermediate levels of human activity, but declined beyond certain thresholds. Human activities also explained change in fire frequency and area burned (1960-2000), but our models had greater explanatory power during the years 1960-1980, when there was more dramatic change in fire frequency. Understanding wildfire as a function of the

  5. Thermal machines beyond the weak coupling regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego, R.; Riera, A.; Eisert, J.

    2014-12-01

    How much work can be extracted from a heat bath using a thermal machine? The study of this question has a very long history in statistical physics in the weak-coupling limit, when applied to macroscopic systems. However, the assumption that thermal heat baths remain uncorrelated with associated physical systems is less reasonable on the nano-scale and in the quantum setting. In this work, we establish a framework of work extraction in the presence of quantum correlations. We show in a mathematically rigorous and quantitative fashion that quantum correlations and entanglement emerge as limitations to work extraction compared to what would be allowed by the second law of thermodynamics. At the heart of the approach are operations that capture the naturally non-equilibrium dynamics encountered when putting physical systems into contact with each other. We discuss various limits that relate to known results and put our work into the context of approaches to finite-time quantum thermodynamics.

  6. Full photon statistics of a light beam transmitted through an optomechanical system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kronwald, Andreas; Ludwig, Max; Marquardt, Florian

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we study the full statistics of photons transmitted through an optical cavity coupled to nanomechanical motion. We analyze the entire temporal evolution of the photon correlations, the Fano factor, and the effects of strong laser driving, all of which show pronounced features connected to the mechanical backaction. In the regime of single-photon strong coupling, this allows us to predict a transition from sub-Poissonian to super-Poissonian statistics for larger observation time intervals. Furthermore, we predict cascades of transmitted photons triggered by multiphoton transitions. In this regime, we observe Fano factors that are drastically enhanced due to the mechanical motion.

  7. Experiments on Nucleation in Different Flow Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bayuzick, R. J.; Hofmeister, W. H.; Morton, C. M.; Robinson, M. B.

    1999-01-01

    The vast majority of metallic engineering materials are solidified from the liquid phase. Understanding the solidification process is essential to control microstructure, which in turn, determines the properties of materials. The genesis of solidification is nucleation, where the first stable solid forms from the liquid phase. Nucleation kinetics determine the degree of undercooling and phase selection. As such, it is important to understand nucleation phenomena in order to control solidification or glass formation in metals and alloys. Early experiments in nucleation kinetics were accomplished by droplet dispersion methods. Dilatometry was used by Turnbull and others, and more recently differential thermal analysis and differential scanning calorimetry have been used for kinetic studies. These techniques have enjoyed success; however, there are difficulties with these experiments. Since materials are dispersed in a medium, the character of the emulsion/metal interface affects the nucleation behavior. Statistics are derived from the large number of particles observed in a single experiment, but dispersions have a finite size distribution which adds to the uncertainty of the kinetic determinations. Even though temperature can be controlled quite well before the onset of nucleation, the release of the latent heat of fusion during nucleation of particles complicates the assumption of isothermality during these experiments. Containerless processing has enabled another approach to the study of nucleation kinetics. With levitation techniques it is possible to undercool one sample to nucleation repeatedly in a controlled manner, such that the statistics of the nucleation process can be derived from multiple experiments on a single sample. The authors have fully developed the analysis of nucleation experiments on single samples following the suggestions of Skripov. The advantage of these experiments is that the samples are directly observable. The nucleation temperature

  8. Element content analysis by WDXRF in pistachios grown under organic and conventional farming regimes for human nutrition and health.

    PubMed

    Akbaba, Ugur; Sahin, Yusuf; Türkez, Hasan

    2012-10-01

    In this investigation, the elemental composition of various Antep pistachios (Pistacia vera L.) samples was determined using a sensitive method called wavelength dispersive x-ray fluorescence (WDXRF). A total of 27 elements, such as Al, As, Bi, Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, P, S, Sr, Zn, Cl, Pb, K, Mg, Na, Ba, Rb, Si, Br, Sn, Au, La, Ti and Zr, were determined in pistachios samples (n = 10) grown under organic and conventional farming regimes. The obtained results from each group were analyzed statistically using SPSS statistic program. It was observed that the concentration and peak intensity values of Ca, Fe, Mn, P, Mg, Cl, Na and K elements were higher in the pistachios samples grown under organic farming regime. Similarly, Al was found in higher level in the samples grown under conventional farming regime. As, Bi, Cd, Pb, Ti, La, Sn and Zr contents were measured. Their contents were below the detection limits. Our findings clearly revealed that organic pistachios are likely to have higher nutritional mineral content. The pistachios samples grown under conventional farming regime could contain harmful metals like Al that might damage various systems and/or organs of humans and animals.

  9. Statistics of superior records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.

    2013-08-01

    We study statistics of records in a sequence of random variables. These identical and independently distributed variables are drawn from the parent distribution ρ. The running record equals the maximum of all elements in the sequence up to a given point. We define a superior sequence as one where all running records are above the average record expected for the parent distribution ρ. We find that the fraction of superior sequences SN decays algebraically with sequence length N, SN˜N-β in the limit N→∞. Interestingly, the decay exponent β is nontrivial, being the root of an integral equation. For example, when ρ is a uniform distribution with compact support, we find β=0.450265. In general, the tail of the parent distribution governs the exponent β. We also consider the dual problem of inferior sequences, where all records are below average, and find that the fraction of inferior sequences IN decays algebraically, albeit with a different decay exponent, IN˜N-α. We use the above statistical measures to analyze earthquake data.

  10. Taking a statistical approach

    SciTech Connect

    Wild, M.; Rouhani, S.

    1995-02-01

    A typical site investigation entails extensive sampling and monitoring. In the past, sampling plans have been designed on purely ad hoc bases, leading to significant expenditures and, in some cases, collection of redundant information. In many instances, sampling costs exceed the true worth of the collected data. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) therefore has advocated the use of geostatistics to provide a logical framework for sampling and analysis of environmental data. Geostatistical methodology uses statistical techniques for the spatial analysis of a variety of earth-related data. The use of geostatistics was developed by the mining industry to estimate ore concentrations. The same procedure is effective in quantifying environmental contaminants in soils for risk assessments. Unlike classical statistical techniques, geostatistics offers procedures to incorporate the underlying spatial structure of the investigated field. Sample points spaced close together tend to be more similar than samples spaced further apart. This can guide sampling strategies and determine complex contaminant distributions. Geostatistic techniques can be used to evaluate site conditions on the basis of regular, irregular, random and even spatially biased samples. In most environmental investigations, it is desirable to concentrate sampling in areas of known or suspected contamination. The rigorous mathematical procedures of geostatistics allow for accurate estimates at unsampled locations, potentially reducing sampling requirements. The use of geostatistics serves as a decision-aiding and planning tool and can significantly reduce short-term site assessment costs, long-term sampling and monitoring needs, as well as lead to more accurate and realistic remedial design criteria.

  11. Fragile entanglement statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brody, Dorje C.; Hughston, Lane P.; Meier, David M.

    2015-10-01

    If X and Y are independent, Y and Z are independent, and so are X and Z, one might be tempted to conclude that X, Y, and Z are independent. But it has long been known in classical probability theory that, intuitive as it may seem, this is not true in general. In quantum mechanics one can ask whether analogous statistics can emerge for configurations of particles in certain types of entangled states. The explicit construction of such states, along with the specification of suitable sets of observables that have the purported statistical properties, is not entirely straightforward. We show that an example of such a configuration arises in the case of an N-particle GHZ state, and we are able to identify a family of observables with the property that the associated measurement outcomes are independent for any choice of 2,3,\\ldots ,N-1 of the particles, even though the measurement outcomes for all N particles are not independent. Although such states are highly entangled, the entanglement turns out to be ‘fragile’, i.e. the associated density matrix has the property that if one traces out the freedom associated with even a single particle, the resulting reduced density matrix is separable.

  12. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1997-05-01

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report is a monthly publication that provides current international oil data. This report is published for the use of Members of Congress, Federal agencies, State agencies, industry, and the general public. Publication of this report is in keeping with responsibilities given the Energy Information Administration in Public Law 95-91. The International Petroleum Statistics Report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This section contains annual data beginning in 1985, and monthly data for the most recent two years. Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world. This balance is presented in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. This section contains annual data for the most recent year, quarterly data for the most recent two quarters, and monthly data for the most recent twelve months. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries. World oil production and OECD demand data are for the years 1970 through 1995; OECD stocks from 1973 through 1995; and OECD trade from 1985 through 1995.

  13. Elements of Statistical Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sachs, Ivo; Sen, Siddhartha; Sexton, James

    2006-05-01

    This textbook provides a concise introduction to the key concepts and tools of modern statistical mechanics. It also covers advanced topics such as non-relativistic quantum field theory and numerical methods. After introducing classical analytical techniques, such as cluster expansion and Landau theory, the authors present important numerical methods with applications to magnetic systems, Lennard-Jones fluids and biophysics. Quantum statistical mechanics is discussed in detail and applied to Bose-Einstein condensation and topics in astrophysics and cosmology. In order to describe emergent phenomena in interacting quantum systems, canonical non-relativistic quantum field theory is introduced and then reformulated in terms of Feynman integrals. Combining the authors' many years' experience of teaching courses in this area, this textbook is ideal for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in physics, chemistry and mathematics. Analytical and numerical techniques in one text, including sample codes and solved problems on the web at www.cambridge.org/0521841984 Covers a wide range of applications including magnetic systems, turbulence astrophysics, and biology Contains a concise introduction to Markov processes and molecular dynamics

  14. Statistical clumped isotope signatures

    PubMed Central

    Röckmann, T.; Popa, M. E.; Krol, M. C.; Hofmann, M. E. G.

    2016-01-01

    High precision measurements of molecules containing more than one heavy isotope may provide novel constraints on element cycles in nature. These so-called clumped isotope signatures are reported relative to the random (stochastic) distribution of heavy isotopes over all available isotopocules of a molecule, which is the conventional reference. When multiple indistinguishable atoms of the same element are present in a molecule, this reference is calculated from the bulk (≈average) isotopic composition of the involved atoms. We show here that this referencing convention leads to apparent negative clumped isotope anomalies (anti-clumping) when the indistinguishable atoms originate from isotopically different populations. Such statistical clumped isotope anomalies must occur in any system where two or more indistinguishable atoms of the same element, but with different isotopic composition, combine in a molecule. The size of the anti-clumping signal is closely related to the difference of the initial isotope ratios of the indistinguishable atoms that have combined. Therefore, a measured statistical clumped isotope anomaly, relative to an expected (e.g. thermodynamical) clumped isotope composition, may allow assessment of the heterogeneity of the isotopic pools of atoms that are the substrate for formation of molecules. PMID:27535168

  15. [Comment on] Statistical discrimination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinn, Douglas

    In the December 8, 1981, issue of Eos, a news item reported the conclusion of a National Research Council study that sexual discrimination against women with Ph.D.'s exists in the field of geophysics. Basically, the item reported that even when allowances are made for motherhood the percentage of female Ph.D.'s holding high university and corporate positions is significantly lower than the percentage of male Ph.D.'s holding the same types of positions. The sexual discrimination conclusion, based only on these statistics, assumes that there are no basic psychological differences between men and women that might cause different populations in the employment group studied. Therefore, the reasoning goes, after taking into account possible effects from differences related to anatomy, such as women stopping their careers in order to bear and raise children, the statistical distributions of positions held by male and female Ph.D.'s ought to be very similar to one another. Any significant differences between the distributions must be caused primarily by sexual discrimination.

  16. Can water sensitive urban design systems help to preserve natural channel-forming flow regimes in an urbanised catchment?

    PubMed

    Wella-Hewage, Chathurika Subhashini; Alankarage Hewa, Guna; Pezzaniti, David

    2016-01-01

    Increased stormwater runoff and pollutant loads due to catchment urbanisation bring inevitable impacts on the physical and ecological conditions of environmentally sensitive urban streams. Water sensitive urban design (WSUD) has been recognised as a possible means to minimise these negative impacts. This paper reports on a study that investigated the ability of infiltration-based WSUD systems to replicate the predevelopment channel-forming flow (CFF) regime in urban catchments. Catchment models were developed for the 'pre-urban', 'urban' and 'managed' conditions of a case study catchment and the hydrological effect on CFF regime was investigated using a number of flow indices. The results clearly show that changes to flow regime are apparent under urban catchment conditions and are even more severe under highly urbanised conditions. The use of WSUD systems was found to result in the replication of predevelopment flow regimes, particularly at low levels of urbanisation. Under highly urbanised conditions (of managed catchments) overcontrol of the CFF indices was observed as indicated by flow statistics below their pre-urban values. The overall results suggest that WSUD systems are highly effective in replicating the predevelopment CFF regime in urban streams and could be used as a means to protect environmentally sensitive urban streams.

  17. Highly optimized tolerance and power laws in dense and sparse resource regimes.

    PubMed

    Manning, M; Carlson, J M; Doyle, J

    2005-07-01

    Power law cumulative frequency (P) versus event size (l) distributions P > or =l) approximately l(-alpha) are frequently cited as evidence for complexity and serve as a starting point for linking theoretical models and mechanisms with observed data. Systems exhibiting this behavior present fundamental mathematical challenges in probability and statistics. The broad span of length and time scales associated with heavy tailed processes often require special sensitivity to distinctions between discrete and continuous phenomena. A discrete highly optimized tolerance (HOT) model, referred to as the probability, loss, resource (PLR) model, gives the exponent alpha=1/d as a function of the dimension d of the underlying substrate in the sparse resource regime. This agrees well with data for wildfires, web file sizes, and electric power outages. However, another HOT model, based on a continuous (dense) distribution of resources, predicts alpha=1+1/d . In this paper we describe and analyze a third model, the cuts model, which exhibits both behaviors but in different regimes. We use the cuts model to show all three models agree in the dense resource limit. In the sparse resource regime, the continuum model breaks down, but in this case, the cuts and PLR models are described by the same exponent.

  18. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century.

    PubMed

    Westerling, Anthony L; Turner, Monica G; Smithwick, Erica A H; Romme, William H; Ryan, Michael G

    2011-08-09

    Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972-1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (~12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100-300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire-climate-vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.

  19. Relationship between Graduate Students' Statistics Self-Efficacy, Statistics Anxiety, Attitude toward Statistics, and Social Support

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perepiczka, Michelle; Chandler, Nichelle; Becerra, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Statistics plays an integral role in graduate programs. However, numerous intra- and interpersonal factors may lead to successful completion of needed coursework in this area. The authors examined the extent of the relationship between self-efficacy to learn statistics and statistics anxiety, attitude towards statistics, and social support of 166…

  20. Constraints on flow regimes in wide-aperture fractures

    SciTech Connect

    Ghezzehei, Teamrat A.

    2004-02-28

    In recent years, significant advances have been made in our understanding of the complex flow processes in individual fractures, aided by flow visualization experiments and conceptual modeling efforts. These advances have led to the recognition of several flow regimes in individual fractures subjected to different initial and boundary conditions. Of these, the most important regimes are film flow, rivulet flow, and sliding of droplets. The existence of such significantly dissimilar flow regimes has been a major hindrance in the development of self-consistent conceptual models of flow for single fractures that encompass all the flow regimes. The objective of this study is to delineate the existence of the different flow regimes in individual fractures. For steady-state flow conditions, we developed physical constraints on the different flow regimes that satisfy minimum energy configurations, which enabled us to segregate the wide range of fracture transmissivity (volumetric flow rate per fracture width) into several flow regimes. These are, in increasing order of flow rate, flow of adsorbed films, flow of sliding drops, rivulet flow, stable film flow, and unstable (turbulent) film flow. The scope of this study is limited to wide-aperture fractures with the flow on the opposing sides of fracture being independent.

  1. River flow regimes and vegetation dynamics along a river transect

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doulatyari, Behnam; Basso, Stefano; Schirmer, Mario; Botter, Gianluca

    2014-11-01

    Ecohydrological processes occurring within fluvial landscapes are strongly affected by natural streamflow variability. In this work the patterns of vegetation biomass in two rivers characterized by contrasting flow regimes were investigated by means of a comprehensive stochastic model which explicitly couples catchment-scale hydroclimatic processes, morphologic attributes of the river transect and in-stream bio-ecological features. The hydrologic forcing is characterized by the probability distribution (pdf) of streamflows and stages resulting from stochastic precipitation dynamics, rainfall-runoff transformation and reach scale morphologic attributes. The model proved able to reproduce the observed pdf of river flows and stages, as well as the pattern of exposure/inundation along the river transect in both regimes. Our results suggest that in persistent regimes characterized by reduced streamflow variability, mean vegetation biomass is chiefly controlled by the pattern of groundwater availability along the transect, leading to a marked transition between aquatic and terrestrial environments. Conversely, erratic regimes ensure wider aquatic-terrestrial zones in which optimal elevation ranges for species with different sensitivity to flooding and access to groundwater are separated. Patterns of mean biomass in erratic regimes were found to be more sensitive to changes in the underlying hydroclimatic conditions, notwithstanding the reduced responsiveness of the corresponding flow regimes. The framework developed highlights the important role played by streamflow regimes in shaping riverine environments, and may eventually contribute to identifying the influence of landscape, climate and morphologic features on in-stream ecological dynamics.

  2. An Examination of the Nature of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji; Huffman, George J.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce global cloud regimes (previously also referred to as "weather states") derived from cloud retrievals that use measurements by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. The regimes are obtained by applying clustering analysis on joint histograms of retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. By employing a compositing approach on data sets from satellites and other sources, we examine regime structural and thermodynamical characteristics. We establish that the MODIS cloud regimes tend to form in distinct dynamical and thermodynamical environments and have diverse profiles of cloud fraction and water content. When compositing radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instrument and surface precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, we find that regimes with a radiative warming effect on the atmosphere also produce the largest implied latent heat. Taken as a whole, the results of the study corroborate the usefulness of the cloud regime concept, reaffirm the fundamental nature of the regimes as appropriate building blocks for cloud system classification, clarify their association with standard cloud types, and underscore their distinct radiative and hydrological signatures.

  3. Toward a Physical Characterization of Raindrop Collision Outcome Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Testik, F. Y.; Barros, Ana P.; Bilven, Francis L.

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive raindrop collision outcome regime diagram that delineates the physical conditions associated with the outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and different breakup types) of binary raindrop collisions is proposed. The proposed diagram builds on a theoretical regime diagram defined in the phase space of collision Weber numbers We and the drop diameter ratio p by including critical angle of impact considerations. In this study, the theoretical regime diagram is first evaluated against a comprehensive dataset for drop collision experiments representative of raindrop collisions in nature. Subsequently, the theoretical regime diagram is modified to explicitly describe the dominant regimes of raindrop interactions in (We, p) by delineating the physical conditions necessary for the occurrence of distinct types of collision-induced breakup (neck/filament, sheet, disk, and crown breakups) based on critical angle of impact consideration. Crown breakup is a subtype of disk breakup for lower collision kinetic energy that presents distinctive morphology. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of the comprehensive collision regime diagram, and conditional probabilities that can be used in the parameterization of breakup kernels in stochastic models of raindrop dynamics are provided.

  4. Marine regime shifts: drivers and impacts on ecosystems services

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, J.; Yletyinen, J.; Biggs, R.; Blenckner, T.; Peterson, G.

    2015-01-01

    Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and polycentric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these underlying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.

  5. Experiments on Nucleation in Different Flow Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bayuzick, R. J.; Hofmeister, W. H.; Morton, C. M.; Robinson, M. B.

    1998-01-01

    The vast majority of metallic engineering materials are solidified from the liquid phase. Understanding the solidification process is essential to control microstructure, which in turn, determines the properties of materials. The genesis of solidification is nucleation, where the first stable solid forms from the liquid phase. Nucleation kinetics determine the degree of undercooling and phase selection. As such, it is important to understand nucleation phenomena in order to control solidification or glass formation in metals and alloys. Early experiments in nucleation kinetics were accomplished by droplet dispersion methods. Dilitometry was used by Turnbull and others, and more recently differential thermal analysis and differential scanning calorimetry have been used for kinetic studies. These techniques have enjoyed success; however, there are difficulties with these experiments. Since materials are dispersed in a medium, the character of the emulsion/metal interface affects the nucleation behavior. Statistics are derived from the large number of particles observed in a single experiment, but dispersions have a finite size distribution which adds to the uncertainty of the kinetic determinations. Even though temperature can be controlled quite well before the onset of nucleation, the release of the latent heat of fusion during nucleation of particles complicates the assumption of isothermality during these experiments. Containerless processing has enabled another approach to the study of nucleation kinetics. With levitation techniques it is possible to undercool one sample to nucleation repeatedly in a controlled manner, such that the statistics of the nucleation process can be derived from multiple experiments on a single sample. The authors have fully developed the analysis of nucleation experiments on single samples following the suggestions of Skripov. The advantage of these experiments is that the samples are directly observable. The nucleation temperature

  6. Experiments on Nucleation in Different Flow Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bayuzick, Robert J.

    1999-01-01

    The vast majority of metallic engineering materials are solidified from the liquid phase. Understanding the solidification process is essential to control microstructure, which in turn, determines the properties of materials. The genesis of solidification is nucleation, where the first stable solid forms from the liquid phase. Nucleation kinetics determine the degree of undercooling and phase selection. As such, it is important to understand nucleation phenomena in order to control solidification or glass formation in metals and alloys. Early experiments in nucleation kinetics were accomplished by droplet dispersion methods [1-6]. Dilitometry was used by Turnbull and others, and more recently differential thermal analysis and differential scanning calorimetry have been used for kinetic studies. These techniques have enjoyed success; however, there are difficulties with these experiments. Since materials are dispersed in a medium, the character of the emulsion/metal interface affects the nucleation behavior. Statistics are derived from the large number of particles observed in a single experiment, but dispersions have a finite size distribution which adds to the uncertainty of the kinetic determinations. Even though temperature can be controlled quite well before the onset of nucleation, the release of the latent heat of fusion during nucleation of particles complicates the assumption of isothermality during these experiments. Containerless processing has enabled another approach to the study of nucleation kinetics [7]. With levitation techniques it is possible to undercool one sample to nucleation repeatedly in a controlled manner, such that the statistics of the nucleation process can be derived from multiple experiments on a single sample. The authors have fully developed the analysis of nucleation experiments on single samples following the suggestions of Skripov [8]. The advantage of these experiments is that the samples are directly observable. The nucleation

  7. A probabilistic model for the identification of confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, with implications to scaling laws

    SciTech Connect

    Verdoolaege, Geert; Van Oost, Guido

    2012-10-15

    Pattern recognition is becoming an important tool in fusion data analysis. However, fusion diagnostic measurements are often affected by considerable statistical uncertainties, rendering the extraction of useful patterns a significant challenge. Therefore, we assume a probabilistic model for the data and perform pattern recognition in the space of probability distributions. We show the considerable advantage of our method for identifying confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, and we discuss the potential for scaling laws.

  8. A probabilistic model for the identification of confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, with implications to scaling lawsa)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verdoolaege, Geert; Van Oost, Guido

    2012-10-01

    Pattern recognition is becoming an important tool in fusion data analysis. However, fusion diagnostic measurements are often affected by considerable statistical uncertainties, rendering the extraction of useful patterns a significant challenge. Therefore, we assume a probabilistic model for the data and perform pattern recognition in the space of probability distributions. We show the considerable advantage of our method for identifying confinement regimes and edge localized mode behavior, and we discuss the potential for scaling laws.

  9. Statistics, Computation, and Modeling in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewell, Jeff; Guiness, Joe; SAMSI 2016 Working Group in Cosmology

    2017-01-01

    Current and future ground and space based missions are designed to not only detect, but map out with increasing precision, details of the universe in its infancy to the present-day. As a result we are faced with the challenge of analyzing and interpreting observations from a wide variety of instruments to form a coherent view of the universe. Finding solutions to a broad range of challenging inference problems in cosmology is one of the goals of the “Statistics, Computation, and Modeling in Cosmology” workings groups, formed as part of the year long program on ‘Statistical, Mathematical, and Computational Methods for Astronomy’, hosted by the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI), a National Science Foundation funded institute. Two application areas have emerged for focused development in the cosmology working group involving advanced algorithmic implementations of exact Bayesian inference for the Cosmic Microwave Background, and statistical modeling of galaxy formation. The former includes study and development of advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed to confront challenging inference problems including inference for spatial Gaussian random fields in the presence of sources of galactic emission (an example of a source separation problem). Extending these methods to future redshift survey data probing the nonlinear regime of large scale structure formation is also included in the working group activities. In addition, the working group is also focused on the study of ‘Galacticus’, a galaxy formation model applied to dark matter-only cosmological N-body simulations operating on time-dependent halo merger trees. The working group is interested in calibrating the Galacticus model to match statistics of galaxy survey observations; specifically stellar mass functions, luminosity functions, and color-color diagrams. The group will use subsampling approaches and fractional factorial designs to statistically and

  10. BIG DATA AND STATISTICS

    PubMed Central

    Rossell, David

    2016-01-01

    Big Data brings unprecedented power to address scientific, economic and societal issues, but also amplifies the possibility of certain pitfalls. These include using purely data-driven approaches that disregard understanding the phenomenon under study, aiming at a dynamically moving target, ignoring critical data collection issues, summarizing or preprocessing the data inadequately and mistaking noise for signal. We review some success stories and illustrate how statistical principles can help obtain more reliable information from data. We also touch upon current challenges that require active methodological research, such as strategies for efficient computation, integration of heterogeneous data, extending the underlying theory to increasingly complex questions and, perhaps most importantly, training a new generation of scientists to develop and deploy these strategies. PMID:27722040

  11. Statistical crack mechanics

    SciTech Connect

    Dienes, J.K.

    1983-01-01

    An alternative to the use of plasticity theory to characterize the inelastic behavior of solids is to represent the flaws by statistical methods. We have taken such an approach to study fragmentation because it offers a number of advantages. Foremost among these is that, by considering the effects of flaws, it becomes possible to address the underlying physics directly. For example, we have been able to explain why rocks exhibit large strain-rate effects (a consequence of the finite growth rate of cracks), why a spherical explosive imbedded in oil shale produces a cavity with a nearly square section (opening of bedding cracks) and why propellants may detonate following low-speed impact (a consequence of frictional hot spots).

  12. Statistics of lattice animals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, Hsiao-Ping; Nadler, Walder; Grassberger, Peter

    2005-07-01

    The scaling behavior of randomly branched polymers in a good solvent is studied in two to nine dimensions, modeled by lattice animals on simple hypercubic lattices. For the simulations, we use a biased sequential sampling algorithm with re-sampling, similar to the pruned-enriched Rosenbluth method (PERM) used extensively for linear polymers. We obtain high statistics of animals with up to several thousand sites in all dimension 2⩽d⩽9. The partition sum (number of different animals) and gyration radii are estimated. In all dimensions we verify the Parisi-Sourlas prediction, and we verify all exactly known critical exponents in dimensions 2, 3, 4, and ⩾8. In addition, we present the hitherto most precise estimates for growth constants in d⩾3. For clusters with one site attached to an attractive surface, we verify the superuniversality of the cross-over exponent at the adsorption transition predicted by Janssen and Lyssy.

  13. Conditional statistical model building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Mads Fogtmann; Hansen, Michael Sass; Larsen, Rasmus

    2008-03-01

    We present a new statistical deformation model suited for parameterized grids with different resolutions. Our method models the covariances between multiple grid levels explicitly, and allows for very efficient fitting of the model to data on multiple scales. The model is validated on a data set consisting of 62 annotated MR images of Corpus Callosum. One fifth of the data set was used as a training set, which was non-rigidly registered to each other without a shape prior. From the non-rigidly registered training set a shape prior was constructed by performing principal component analysis on each grid level and using the results to construct a conditional shape model, conditioning the finer parameters with the coarser grid levels. The remaining shapes were registered with the constructed shape prior. The dice measures for the registration without prior and the registration with a prior were 0.875 +/- 0.042 and 0.8615 +/- 0.051, respectively.

  14. Statistical physics ""Beyond equilibrium

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    The scientific challenges of the 21st century will increasingly involve competing interactions, geometric frustration, spatial and temporal intrinsic inhomogeneity, nanoscale structures, and interactions spanning many scales. We will focus on a broad class of emerging problems that will require new tools in non-equilibrium statistical physics and that will find application in new material functionality, in predicting complex spatial dynamics, and in understanding novel states of matter. Our work will encompass materials under extreme conditions involving elastic/plastic deformation, competing interactions, intrinsic inhomogeneity, frustration in condensed matter systems, scaling phenomena in disordered materials from glasses to granular matter, quantum chemistry applied to nano-scale materials, soft-matter materials, and spatio-temporal properties of both ordinary and complex fluids.

  15. Statistical Thermodynamics of Biomembranes

    PubMed Central

    Devireddy, Ram V.

    2010-01-01

    An overview of the major issues involved in the statistical thermodynamic treatment of phospholipid membranes at the atomistic level is summarized: thermodynamic ensembles, initial configuration (or the physical system being modeled), force field representation as well as the representation of long-range interactions. This is followed by a description of the various ways that the simulated ensembles can be analyzed: area of the lipid, mass density profiles, radial distribution functions (RDFs), water orientation profile, Deuteurium order parameter, free energy profiles and void (pore) formation; with particular focus on the results obtained from our recent molecular dynamic (MD) simulations of phospholipids interacting with dimethylsulfoxide (Me2SO), a commonly used cryoprotective agent (CPA). PMID:19460363

  16. Statistical Seasonal Sea Surface based Prediction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suarez, Roberto; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Diouf, Ibrahima

    2014-05-01

    The interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) plays a key role in the strongly seasonal rainfall regime on the West African region. The predictability of the seasonal cycle of rainfall is a field widely discussed by the scientific community, with results that fail to be satisfactory due to the difficulty of dynamical models to reproduce the behavior of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). To tackle this problem, a statistical model based on oceanic predictors has been developed at the Universidad Complutense of Madrid (UCM) with the aim to complement and enhance the predictability of the West African Monsoon (WAM) as an alternative to the coupled models. The model, called S4CAST (SST-based Statistical Seasonal Forecast) is based on discriminant analysis techniques, specifically the Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). Beyond the application of the model to the prediciton of rainfall in West Africa, its use extends to a range of different oceanic, atmospheric and helth related parameters influenced by the temperature of the sea surface as a defining factor of variability.

  17. Statistical steady state in turbulent droplet condensation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siewert, Christoph; Bec, Jérémie; Krstulovic, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    Motivated by systems in which droplets grow and shrink in a turbulence-driven supersaturation field, we investigate the problem of turbulent condensation in a general manner. Using direct numerical simulations we show that the turbulent fluctuations of the supersaturation field offer different conditions for the growth of droplets which evolve in time due to turbulent transport and mixing. Based on that, we propose a Lagrangian stochastic model for condensation and evaporation of small droplets in turbulent flows. It consists of a set of stochastic integro-differential equations for the joint evolution of the squared radius and the supersaturation along the droplet trajectories. The model has two parameters fixed by the total amount of water and the thermodynamic properties, as well as the Lagrangian integral timescale of the turbulent supersaturation. The model reproduces very well the droplet size distributions obtained from direct numerical simulations and their time evolution. A noticeable result is that, after a stage where the squared radius simply diffuses, the system converges exponentially fast to a statistical steady state independent of the initial conditions. The main mechanism involved in this convergence is a loss of memory induced by a significant number of droplets undergoing a complete evaporation before growing again. The statistical steady state is characterised by an exponential tail in the droplet mass distribution. These results reconcile those of earlier numerical studies, once these various regimes are considered.

  18. Statistical physics of vaccination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Zhen; Bauch, Chris T.; Bhattacharyya, Samit; d'Onofrio, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero; Perc, Matjaž; Perra, Nicola; Salathé, Marcel; Zhao, Dawei

    2016-12-01

    Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease dynamics and inform prevention strategies. Vaccination-one of the most important preventive measures of modern times-is of great interest both theoretically and empirically. And in contrast to traditional approaches, recent research increasingly explores the pivotal implications of individual behavior and heterogeneous contact patterns in populations. Our report reviews the developmental arc of theoretical epidemiology with emphasis on vaccination, as it led from classical models assuming homogeneously mixing (mean-field) populations and ignoring human behavior, to recent models that account for behavioral feedback and/or population spatial/social structure. Many of the methods used originated in statistical physics, such as lattice and network models, and their associated analytical frameworks. Similarly, the feedback loop between vaccinating behavior and disease propagation forms a coupled nonlinear system with analogs in physics. We also review the new paradigm of digital epidemiology, wherein sources of digital data such as online social media are mined for high-resolution information on epidemiologically relevant individual behavior. Armed with the tools and concepts of statistical physics, and further assisted by new sources of digital data, models that capture nonlinear interactions between behavior and disease dynamics offer a novel way of modeling real-world phenomena, and can help improve health outcomes. We conclude the review by discussing open problems in the field and promising directions for future research.

  19. Penetration depth of low-coherence enhanced backscattered light in subdiffusion regime.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Hariharan; Pradhan, Prabhakar; Kim, Young L; Backman, Vadim

    2007-04-01

    The mechanisms of photon propagation in random media in the diffusive multiple scattering regime have been previously studied using diffusion approximation. However, similar understanding in the low-order (subdiffusion) scattering regime is not complete due to difficulties in tracking photons that undergo very few scatterings events. Recent developments in low-coherence enhanced backscattering (LEBS) overcome these difficulties and enable probing photons that travel very short distances and undergo only a few scattering events. In LEBS, enhanced backscattering is observed under illumination with spatial coherence length L{sc} less than the scattering mean free path l{s}. In order to understand the mechanisms of photon propagation in LEBS in the subdiffusion regime, it is imperative to develop analytical and numerical models that describe the statistical properties of photon trajectories. Here we derive the probability distribution of penetration depth of LEBS photons and report Monte Carlo numerical simulations to support our analytical results. Our results demonstrate that, surprisingly, the transport of photons that undergo low-order scattering events has only weak dependence on the optical properties of the medium (l{s} and anisotropy factor g) and strong dependence on the spatial coherence length of illumination, L{sc} relative to those in the diffusion regime. More importantly, these low-order scattering photons typically penetrate less than l{s} into the medium due to the low spatial coherence length of illumination and their penetration depth is proportional to the one-third power of the coherence volume (i.e., [l{s}piL{s}{2}]1/3) .

  20. Statistical Literacy: Developing a Youth and Adult Education Statistical Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Conti, Keli Cristina; Lucchesi de Carvalho, Dione

    2014-01-01

    This article focuses on the notion of literacy--general and statistical--in the analysis of data from a fieldwork research project carried out as part of a master's degree that investigated the teaching and learning of statistics in adult education mathematics classes. We describe the statistical context of the project that involved the…

  1. Boundary between stable and unstable regimes of accretion. Ordered and chaotic unstable regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blinova, A. A.; Romanova, M. M.; Lovelace, R. V. E.

    2016-07-01

    We present a new study of the Rayleigh-Taylor unstable regime of accretion on to rotating magnetized stars in a set of high grid resolution three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations performed in low-viscosity discs. We find that the boundary between the stable and unstable regimes is determined almost entirely by the fastness parameter ωs = Ω⋆/ΩK(rm), where Ω⋆ is the angular velocity of the star and ΩK(rm) is the angular velocity of the Keplerian disc at the disc-magnetosphere boundary r = rm. We found that accretion is unstable if ωs ≲ 0.6. Accretion through instabilities is present in stars with different magnetospheric sizes. However, only in stars with relatively small magnetospheres, rm/R⋆ ≲ 7, do the unstable tongues produce chaotic hotspots on the stellar surface and irregular light curves. At even smaller values of the fastness parameter, ωs ≲ 0.45, multiple irregular tongues merge, forming one or two ordered unstable tongues that rotate with the angular frequency of the inner disc. This transition occurs in stars with even smaller magnetospheres, rm/R⋆ ≲ 4.2. Most of our simulations were performed at a small tilt of the dipole magnetosphere, Θ = 5°, and a small viscosity parameter α = 0.02. Test simulations at higher α values show that many more cases become unstable, and the light curves become even more irregular. Test simulations at larger tilts of the dipole Θ show that instability is present, however, accretion in two funnel streams dominates if Θ ≳ 15°. The results of these simulations can be applied to accreting magnetized stars with relatively small magnetospheres: Classical T Tauri stars, accreting millisecond X-ray pulsars, and cataclysmic variables.

  2. The Influence of Seasonal Climatic Parameters on the Permafrost Thermal Regime in West Siberia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popova, V. V.; Shmakin, A. B.

    2009-12-01

    Statistical correlations between seasonal air temperatures and snow depths and active layer depths and permafrost temperatures were analyzed for tundra (Marre-Salle) and northern taiga (Nadym) sites in Western Siberia. Interannual variations in active layer depth in the tundra zone correlated with the average air temperature of the current summer, and in peatland and humid tundra, also with summer temperatures of the preceding 1-2 years. In the northern taiga zone, the active layer depth related to current summer air temperature and to a lesser extent, to spring and/or winter air temperatures. Variations in summer permafrost temperatures at 5-10m depth were correlated with spring air temperatures in the current and preceding 1-2 years. The weather regime during the preceding 1-2 years, therefore, reinforced or weakened ground temperature variations in a given year. Overall, the most important factors influencing the permafrost regime were spring and summer air temperatures, and in one case snow depth. However, statistical links between meteorological and permafrost parameters varied between the tundra and northern taiga zones and among landscape types within each zone, emphasizing the importance of analyses at short temporal scales and for individual terrain units.

  3. Bed load transport over a broad range of timescales: Determination of three regimes of fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Hongbo; Heyman, Joris; Fu, Xudong; Mettra, Francois; Ancey, Christophe; Parker, Gary

    2014-12-01

    This paper describes the relationship between the statistics of bed load transport flux and the timescale over which it is sampled. A stochastic formulation is developed for the probability distribution function of bed load transport flux, based on the Ancey et al. (2008) theory. An analytical solution for the variance of bed load transport flux over differing sampling timescales is presented. The solution demonstrates that the timescale dependence of the variance of bed load transport flux reduces to a three-regime relation demarcated by an intermittency timescale (tI) and a memory timescale (tc). As the sampling timescale increases, this variance passes through an intermittent stage (≪tI), an invariant stage (tI < t < tc), and a memoryless stage (≫ tc). We propose a dimensionless number (Ra) to represent the relative strength of fluctuation, which provides a common ground for comparison of fluctuation strength among different experiments, as well as different sampling timescales for each experiment. Our analysis indicates that correlated motion and the discrete nature of bed load particles are responsible for this three-regime behavior. We use the data from three experiments with high temporal resolution of bed load transport flux to validate the proposed three-regime behavior. The theoretical solution for the variance agrees well with all three sets of experimental data. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the observed fluctuations of bed load transport flux over monosize/multiple-size grain beds, to the characterization of an inherent connection between short-term measurements and long-term statistics, and to the design of appropriate sampling strategies for bed load transport flux.

  4. Social inequalities in "sickness": does welfare state regime type make a difference? A multilevel analysis of men and women in 26 European countries.

    PubMed

    van der Wel, Kjetil A; Dahl, Espen; Thielen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    In comparative studies of health inequalities, public health researchers have usually studied only disease and illness. Recent studies have also examined the sickness dimension of health, that is, the extent to which ill health is accompanied by joblessness, and how this association varies by education within different welfare contexts. This research has used either a limited number of countries or quantitative welfare state measures in studies of many countries. In this study, the authors expand on this knowledge by investigating whether a regime approach to the welfare state produces consistent results. They analyze data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC); health was measured by limiting longstanding illness (LLSI). Results show that for both men and women reporting LLSI in combination with low educational level, the probabilities of non-employment were particularly high in the Anglo-Saxon and Eastern welfare regimes, and lowest in the Scandinavian regime. For men, absolute and relative social inequalities in sickness were lowest in the Southern regime; for women, inequalities were lowest in the Scandinavian regime. The authors conclude that the Scandinavian welfare regime is more able than other regimes to protect against non-employment in the face of illness, especially for individuals with low educational level.

  5. AN APPROACH FOR CLASSIFYING TIDAL REGIMES BASED ON TIDAL CONSTITUENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Tidal fluctuations can be one of the dominant physical processes in estuaries. This paper presents a numerical classification of tidal regimes that can be used to summarize local conditions and facilitate comparisons among locations. Tide predictions are customarily calculated ...

  6. Stochastic regimes in very-low-frequency fluidic oscillator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tesař, Václav

    2016-03-01

    Paper discusses interesting unexpected stochastic regimes discovered in a fluidic oscillator designed for operation at very low oscillation frequencies - without the inconvenience of the long feedback loops needed in standard low-frequency oscillator designs. The new oscillator contains a pair of bistable turn-down active valves operating in anti-parallel — essentially analogous to Abraham & Bloch electric "multibrateur" invented in 1919. Three different self-excited oscillation regimes were found. In the order of increasing supplied flow rate, these regimes are characterised by: (A) generation of stochastic-duration multi-pulse packs, (B) generation of individual pulses with a degree of periodicity, and (C) regime with randomly appearing flow pulses separated by intervals of the order of seconds.

  7. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  8. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE PAGES

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  9. The effect of refrigerants in the mixed lubrication regime

    SciTech Connect

    Mizuhara, Kazuyuki; Tomimoto, Makoto

    1997-12-31

    Because of environmental concerns, CFC (chlorofluorocarbon) refrigerants must be replaced with HFCs (hydrofluorocarbons). As a result, many tribological problems are caused especially in rotary piston compressors. To solve the problem, the effects of refrigerants on friction and wear characteristics of the oil and refrigerant mixtures at the mixed lubrication regime are investigated. The difference in refrigerants are clearly observed not only in boundary but also in the mixed lubrication regime. The effects of operating conditions on sliding conditions and experimental results are also discussed. It is concluded that for practical application where long life is essential, experiments must be conducted under the mixed lubrication regime. Also, the importance of defining the lubrication regime in terms of film parameter is emphasized.

  10. Spacetime-noncommutativity regime of loop quantum gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amelino-Camelia, Giovanni; Da Silva, Malú Maira; Ronco, Michele; Cesarini, Lorenzo; Lecian, Orchidea Maria

    2017-01-01

    A recent study by Bojowald and Paily [M. Bojowald and G. M. Paily, Phys. Rev. D 87, 044044 (2013)., 10.1103/PhysRevD.87.044044] provided a path toward the identification of an effective quantum-spacetime picture of loop quantum gravity, applicable in the "Minkowski regime," the regime where the large-scale (coarse-grained) spacetime metric is flat. A pivotal role in the analysis is played by loop-quantum-gravity-based modifications to the hypersurface deformation algebra, which leave a trace in the Minkowski regime. We here show that the symmetry-algebra results reported by Bojowald and Paily are consistent with a description of spacetime in the Minkowski regime given in terms of the κ -Minkowski noncommutative spacetime, whose relevance for the study of the quantum-gravity problem had already been proposed for independent reasons.

  11. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    SciTech Connect

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

  12. Analysis of light regime in continuous light distributions in photobioreactors.

    PubMed

    Brindley, Celeste; Fernández, F G Acién; Fernández-Sevilla, J M

    2011-02-01

    Maximum photobioreactor (PBR) efficiency is a must in applications such as the obtention of microalgae-derived fuels. Improving PBR performance requires a better understanding of the "light regime", the varying irradiance that microalgal cells moving in a dense culture are exposed to. We propose a definition of light regime that can be used consistently to describe the continuously varying light patterns in PBRs as well as in light/dark cycles. Equivalent continuous and light/dark regimes have been experimentally compared and the results show that continuous variations are not well represented by light/dark cycles, as had been widely accepted. It has been shown that a correct light regime allows obtaining photosynthetic rates higher than the corresponding to continuous light, the so-called "flashing light effect" and that this is possible in commercial PBRs. A correct PBR operation could result in photosynthetic efficiency close to the optimum eight quanta per O(2).

  13. Regime change and oscillation thresholds in recorder-like instruments.

    PubMed

    Auvray, Roman; Fabre, Benoît; Lagrée, Pierre-Yves

    2012-02-01

    Based on results from the literature, a description of sound generation in a recorder is developed. Linear and non-linear analysis are performed to study the dependence of the frequency on the jet velocity. The linear analysis predicts that the frequency is a function of the jet velocity. The non-linear resolution provides information about limit cycle oscillation and hysteretic regime change thresholds. A comparison of the frequency between linear theory and experiments on a modified recorder shows good agreement except at very low jet velocities. Although the predicted threshold for the onset of the first regime shows an important deviation from experiments, the hysteresis of threshold to higher regimes is accurately estimated. Furthermore, a qualitative analysis of the influence of different parameters in the model on the sound generation and regime changes is presented.

  14. FISHER INFORMATION AND DYNAMIC REGIME CHANGES IN ECOLOGICAL SYTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between dynamic regimes (or steady states), such as the conversion of oligotrophic to eutrophic conditions and associated aquatic ecological communities, due to natural (or increasingly) anthropogenic disturbances. As ecosystems experience per...

  15. Statistical physics of elastoplastic steady states in amorphous solids: finite temperatures and strain rates.

    PubMed

    Karmakar, Smarajit; Lerner, Edan; Procaccia, Itamar; Zylberg, Jacques

    2010-09-01

    The effect of finite temperature T and finite strain rate γ on the statistical physics of plastic deformations in amorphous solids made of N particles is investigated. We recognize three regimes of temperature where the statistics are qualitatively different. In the first regime the temperature is very low, Tregime the elastoplastic steady state exhibits highly correlated plastic events whose statistics are characterized by anomalous exponents. In the second regime T(cross)(N)regime occurs above the second crossover temperature T(max)(γ) where stress fluctuations become dominated by thermal noise. Throughout the paper we demonstrate that scaling concepts are highly relevant for the problem at hand, and finally we present a scaling theory that is able to collapse the data for all the values of temperatures and strain rates, providing us with a high degree of predictability.

  16. Plasma confinement regimes and collective modes characterizing them

    SciTech Connect

    Coppi, B.; Zhou, T.

    2012-10-15

    A unified theory is presented for the modes that are excited at the edge of the plasma column and are important signatures of the advanced confinement regimes into which magnetically confined plasmas can be driven. In particular, the so-called EDA H-Regime, the Elmy H-Regime, and the I-Regime are considered. The modes that are identified theoretically have characteristics that are consistent with or have anticipated those of the modes observed experimentally for each of the investigated regimes. The phase velocities, the produced transport processes, the frequencies, the wavelengths, and the consistency with the direction of spontaneous rotation are the factors considered for comparison with the relevant experiments. The quasi-coherent mode [I. Cziegler, Ph.D. dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 2011] that is present in the EDA H-Regime has a phase velocity in the direction of the ion diamagnetic velocity in the plasma reference frame. Consequently, this is identified as a ballooning mode near finite Larmor radius marginal stability involving the effects of transverse ion viscosity and other dissipative effects. In this regime, impurities are driven outward by the combined effects of the local temperature gradients of the impurities and their thermal conductivity, while in the Elmy H-Regime impurities are driven toward the center of the plasma column. In the I-Regimes, the excited 'Heavy Particle' modes [B. Coppi and T. Zhou, Phys. Plasmas 19, 012302 (2012); Phys. Lett. A 375, 2916 (2011)] are not of the ballooning kind and are shown to expel the impurities toward the plasma edge in the presence of significant fluctuations. These modes can have a finite frequency of oscillation with a phase velocity in the direction of the electron diamagnetic velocity or they can be nearly purely growing, explaining why there are I-Regimes where fluctuations are not observed. Instead, the modes considered for the Elmy H-Regime are of the ballooning

  17. Key Statistics for Thyroid Cancer

    MedlinePlus

    ... and Treatment? Thyroid Cancer About Thyroid Cancer Key Statistics for Thyroid Cancer How common is thyroid cancer? ... remains very low compared with most other cancers. Statistics on survival rates for thyroid cancer are discussed ...

  18. HPV-Associated Cancers Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... What CDC Is Doing Related Links Stay Informed Statistics for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal ( ... Vaginal and Vulvar Cancer Home HPV-Associated Cancer Statistics Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend on Facebook Tweet ...

  19. Muscular Dystrophy: Data and Statistics

    MedlinePlus

    ... Statistics Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir MD STAR net Data and Statistics The following data and ... research [ Read Article ] For more information on MD STAR net see Research and Tracking . Key Findings Feature ...

  20. Equatorial atmospheric weather regimes: Their structure and role

    SciTech Connect

    Connors, V.S.

    1991-01-01

    Infrared radiance measurements by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-6) from April 1986 through April 1987 are used to characterize and identify distinct regimes of persistent, large-scale cloudiness patterns over the Amazon Basin. These tropical weather regimes are responsible for the continental-scale atmospheric processes that transport air, trace gases, and heat from the Amazon Basin. The cloud patterns are represented by both scene-scale parameters, such as the cloud-free area and the value of the 'clear sky peak' in a histogram, and textural measures, such as contrast of cloudy area and homogeneity or cloudy area. Correlation analyses of the attribute arrays determined that only 9 of the original 15 cloud pattern descriptors are required for the cluster analyses. Seventy-six percent of the satellite images are classified into 1 of 14 weather regimes which persist for periods that range from 3 to 15 days each. The dominant weather regimes are described by the recurrence and duration of the events, by the rainfall produced and energy released to the tropical atmosphere, and by the composite kinematic and thermodynamic analyses. While the classification analyses identified a range of organized weather conditions in the Amazon Basin, two weather regimes, each occurring in separate seasons, dominate the year. The prominent dry season regime (A) occurs 11 times, persists for 25 percent of the year, produces 81 percent of the dry season rainfall, and 7 percent of the energy export necessary to balance the global heat budget. The prominent wet season regime (B) occurs 8 times, persists for 18 percent of the year, delivers about 30 percent of the wet season rainfall, and 16 percent of the energy export requirement. Because the dry season regime (A) draws nearly half of its water vapor supply from local sources, a vital link may exist between the rainforest ecosystem and the dry season rainfall.

  1. Distributed Low Temperature Combustion: Fundamental Understanding of Combustion Regime Transitions

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-09-07

    study is to bring fundamental understanding of the impact of the chemical (Tau_c) and flow (Tau_f) timescales on combustion regime transitions in...reaction zone regime. The choice of DME is partly due to the potential practical relevance, but also due to the fundamentally different chemical ... chemical mechanisms for the considered fuels (e.g. DME) to establish their ability to reproduce laminar flame and auto-ignition properties. The

  2. Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

    PubMed Central

    Beaugrand, G.; Conversi, A.; Chiba, S.; Edwards, M.; Fonda-Umani, S.; Greene, C.; Mantua, N.; Otto, S. A.; Reid, P. C.; Stachura, M. M.; Stemmann, L.; Sugisaki, H.

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

  3. Evaluation of interregional variability in MODIS cloud regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leinonen, J. S.; Lebsock, M. D.; Oreopoulos, L.; Cho, N.

    2015-12-01

    Clustering techniques have been used in the last few decades to classify cloud types automatically from satellite observations, most commonly using cloud top pressure and cloud optical depth. The underlying assumption is that the resulting clusters, called "cloud regimes" or "weather states", represent some type of basic states of the atmosphere, and thus that their occurrence can be used as a proxy for related variables such as radiative balance or precipitation. We have examined the validity of these assumptions by using independent measurements from the CloudSat and CALIPSO satellites. The CloudSat radar yields a reflectivity product that is sensitive to many aspects of the physics of the clouds, while CloudSat together with the CALIPSO lidar can retrieve the vertical structure of the cloud column, including multi-layer clouds. These observations have been separated into groups according to the recently published cloud regimes based on data from the MODIS instrument, deployed on the Aqua satellite orbiting in the same constellation with CloudSat and CALIPSO. The distributions of these observations have been constructed both globally and in a number of regions in different parts of the Earth. By analyzing the differences in the distributions between these regions, we can evaluate the usefulness of the cloud regimes as a proxy for the measured variables. Some cloud regimes have been found to be rather stable between regions, while others display considerable variability. Moreover, some cloud regimes appear much more similar to each other in CloudSat observations than they do using the MODIS regimes. We analyze the implications of these differences for the usability of the cloud regimes as climate indicators. We also explore various filtering techniques and different clustering methods that can potentially be used to reduce these differences, and thus to improve the universality of the cloud regimes.

  4. Ignition Regime for Fusion in a Degenerate Plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Son, S.; Fisch, N.J.

    2005-12-01

    We identify relevant parameter regimes in which aneutronic fuels can undergo fusion ignition in hot-ion degenerate plasma. Because of relativistic effects and partial degeneracy, the self-sustained burning regime is considerably larger than previously calculated. Inverse bremsstrahlung plays a major role in containing the reactor energy. We solve the radiation transfer equation and obtain the contribution to the heat conductivity from inverse bremsstrahlung.

  5. What can we learn from noise? — Mesoscopic nonequilibrium statistical physics —

    PubMed Central

    KOBAYASHI, Kensuke

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscopic systems — small electric circuits working in quantum regime — offer us a unique experimental stage to explorer quantum transport in a tunable and precise way. The purpose of this Review is to show how they can contribute to statistical physics. We introduce the significance of fluctuation, or equivalently noise, as noise measurement enables us to address the fundamental aspects of a physical system. The significance of the fluctuation theorem (FT) in statistical physics is noted. We explain what information can be deduced from the current noise measurement in mesoscopic systems. As an important application of the noise measurement to statistical physics, we describe our experimental work on the current and current noise in an electron interferometer, which is the first experimental test of FT in quantum regime. Our attempt will shed new light in the research field of mesoscopic quantum statistical physics. PMID:27477456

  6. Assessing the Institution of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

    SciTech Connect

    Toomey, Christopher

    2010-05-14

    The nuclear nonproliferation regime is facing a crisis of effectiveness. During the Cold War, the regime was relatively effective in stemming the proliferation of nuclear weapons and building an institutional structure that could, under certain conditions, ensure continued success. However, in the evolving global context, the traditional approaches are becoming less appropriate. Globalization has introduced new sets of stresses on the nonproliferation regime, such as the rise of non-state actors, broadening extensity and intensity of supply chains, and the multipolarization of power. This evolving global context demands an analytical and political flexibility in order to meet future threats. Current institutional capabilities established during the Cold War are now insufficient to meet the nonproliferation regime’s current and future needs. The research was based on information gathered through interviews and reviews of the relevant literature, and two dominant themes emerged. First, that human security should be integrated into the regime to account for the rise of non-state actors and networked violence. Second, confidence in the regime’s overall effectiveness has eroded at a time where verification-based confidence is becoming more essential. The research postulates that a critical analysis of the regime that fully utilizes institutional theory, with its focus on rules, normative structures, and procedures will be essential to adapting the regime to the current global context, building mechanisms for generating trust, creating better enforcement, and providing flexibility for the future.

  7. Modeling of a Two-Regime Crystallization in a Multicomponent

    SciTech Connect

    Mazzanti, G.; Marangoni, A; Idziak, S

    2008-01-01

    The kinetics of phase transitions of milk fat triacylglycerols, as model multicomponent lipid systems, were studied under shear in a Couette cell at 17 C, 17.5 C and 20 C under shear rates ranging from 0 to 2880s-1 using synchrotron X-ray diffraction. Two-dimensional diffraction patterns were captured during the crystallization process. No effect of shear on onset time for phase a from the liquid was observed. Afterwards a two-regime crystallization process was observed. During the first regime, as observed in other systems, shear reduced the onset time of the phase transition from phase a to 2880s-. The model previously developed for palm oil (ODE model) worked well to describe this regime, confirming the general value of the proposed ODE model. However, the ODE model did not satisfactorily describe the second regime. We found that, as the system gets closer to equilibrium, the growth regime becomes controlled by diffusion, manifested by the kinetics following a {radical}t dependence. This regime was found to be consistent with a mechanism combining step growth at a kink with progressive selection of the crystallizing moieties. This mechanism is in agreement with the displacement of the diffraction peak positions, which revealed how increased shear rate promotes the crystallization of the higher melting fraction affecting the composition of the crystallites.

  8. O-regime dynamics and modeling in Tore Supra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, F.; Giruzzi, G.; Imbeaux, F.; Udintsev, V. S.; Artaud, J. F.; Barana, O.; Dumont, R.; Mazon, D.; Ségui, J.-L.

    2009-06-01

    The regime of nonlinear temperature oscillations (O-regime), characteristic of noninductive discharges on Tore Supra [Équipe Tore Supra, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research, Nice, France, 1988 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1989), Vol. 1, p. 9], is investigated in its triggering and suppressing mechanism. This regime can be described by two nonlinearly coupled equations for the current density j(r ) and the electron temperature Te(r) where the equation coefficients are functions of j and Te themselves. Both the integrated modeling code CRONOS [V. Basiuk et al., Nucl. Fusion 43, 822 (2003)] and a two-patch predator-prey system with diffusion and noise have been used and results have been compared to the experimental observations of the O-regime. A database of discharges is analyzed which features monotonic, flat, and reversed safety factor (q) profiles in order to characterize the action of external actuators on the regime dynamics with the widest generality. Electron cyclotron current drive and neutral beam injections have been used in order to induce localized perturbations in the total current profile j(r ) as well as to change the plasma confinement conditions in the central region. Magnetic shear perturbations and modifications of the heat transport turn out to be the central parameters governing the dynamics of the O-regime.

  9. O-regime dynamics and modeling in Tore Supra

    SciTech Connect

    Turco, F.; Giruzzi, G.; Imbeaux, F.; Udintsev, V. S.; Artaud, J. F.; Barana, O.; Dumont, R.; Mazon, D.; Segui, J.-L.

    2009-06-15

    The regime of nonlinear temperature oscillations (O-regime), characteristic of noninductive discharges on Tore Supra [Equipe Tore Supra, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research, Nice, France, 1988 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1989), Vol. 1, p. 9], is investigated in its triggering and suppressing mechanism. This regime can be described by two nonlinearly coupled equations for the current density j(r) and the electron temperature T{sub e}(r) where the equation coefficients are functions of j and T{sub e} themselves. Both the integrated modeling code CRONOS[V. Basiuk et al., Nucl. Fusion 43, 822 (2003)] and a two-patch predator-prey system with diffusion and noise have been used and results have been compared to the experimental observations of the O-regime. A database of discharges is analyzed which features monotonic, flat, and reversed safety factor (q) profiles in order to characterize the action of external actuators on the regime dynamics with the widest generality. Electron cyclotron current drive and neutral beam injections have been used in order to induce localized perturbations in the total current profile j(r) as well as to change the plasma confinement conditions in the central region. Magnetic shear perturbations and modifications of the heat transport turn out to be the central parameters governing the dynamics of the O-regime.

  10. Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

    PubMed Central

    Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale. PMID:24954397

  11. Do family policy regimes matter for children's well-being?

    PubMed

    Engster, Daniel; Stensöta, Helena Olofsdotter

    2011-01-01

    Researchers have studied the impact of different welfare state regimes, and particularly family policy regimes, on gender equality. Very little research has been conducted, however, on the association between different family policy regimes and children's well-being. This article explores how the different family policy regimes of twenty OECD countries relate to children's well-being in the areas of child poverty, child mortality, and educational attainment and achievement. We focus specifically on three family policies: family cash and tax benefits, paid parenting leaves, and public child care support. Using panel data for the years 1995, 2000, and 2005, we test the association between these policies and child well-being while holding constant for a number of structural and policy variables. Our analysis shows that the dual-earner regimes, combining high levels of support for paid parenting leaves and public child care, are strongly associated with low levels of child poverty and child mortality. We find little long-term effect of family policies on educational achievement, but a significant positive correlation between high family policy support and higher educational attainment. We conclude that family policies have a significant impact on improving children's well-being, and that dual-earner regimes represent the best practice for promoting children's health and development.

  12. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-05-01

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, exports, and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This section contains annual data beginning in 1985, and monthly data for the most recent two years. Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world. This balance is presented in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. This section contains annual data for the most recent year, quarterly data for the most recent two quarters, and monthly data for the most recent twelve months. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries. World oil production and OECD demand data are for the years 1970 through 1995; OECD stocks from 1973 through 1995; and OECD trade from 1084 through 1994.

  13. Topics in statistical mechanics

    SciTech Connect

    Elser, V.

    1984-05-01

    This thesis deals with four independent topics in statistical mechanics: (1) the dimer problem is solved exactly for a hexagonal lattice with general boundary using a known generating function from the theory of partitions. It is shown that the leading term in the entropy depends on the shape of the boundary; (2) continuum models of percolation and self-avoiding walks are introduced with the property that their series expansions are sums over linear graphs with intrinsic combinatorial weights and explicit dimension dependence; (3) a constrained SOS model is used to describe the edge of a simple cubic crystal. Low and high temperature results are derived as well as the detailed behavior near the crystal facet; (4) the microscopic model of the lambda-transition involving atomic permutation cycles is reexamined. In particular, a new derivation of the two-component field theory model of the critical behavior is presented. Results for a lattice model originally proposed by Kikuchi are extended with a high temperature series expansion and Monte Carlo simulation. 30 references.

  14. Statistics of indistinguishable particles.

    PubMed

    Wittig, Curt

    2009-07-02

    The wave function of a system containing identical particles takes into account the relationship between a particle's intrinsic spin and its statistical property. Specifically, the exchange of two identical particles having odd-half-integer spin results in the wave function changing sign, whereas the exchange of two identical particles having integer spin is accompanied by no such sign change. This is embodied in a term (-1)(2s), which has the value +1 for integer s (bosons), and -1 for odd-half-integer s (fermions), where s is the particle spin. All of this is well-known. In the nonrelativistic limit, a detailed consideration of the exchange of two identical particles shows that exchange is accompanied by a 2pi reorientation that yields the (-1)(2s) term. The same bookkeeping is applicable to the relativistic case described by the proper orthochronous Lorentz group, because any proper orthochronous Lorentz transformation can be expressed as the product of spatial rotations and a boost along the direction of motion.

  15. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-10-01

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This section contains annual data beginning in 1985, and monthly data for the most recent two years. Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world. This balance is presented in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. This section contains annual data for the most recent year, quarterly data for the most recent two quarters, and monthly data for the most recent twelve months. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries. Word oil production and OECD demand data are for the years 1970 through 1995; OECD stocks from 1973 through 1995; and OECD trade from 1985 through 1995.

  16. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-01

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, exports, and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This section contains annual data beginning in 1985, and monthly data for the most recent two years. Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world. This balance is presented in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. This section contains annual data for the most recent year, quarterly data for the most recent two quarters, and monthly data for the most recent twelve months. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries. World oil production and OECD demand data are for the years 1970 through 1994; OECD stocks from 1973 through 1994; and OECD trade from 1984 through 1994.

  17. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-07-27

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, and exports, and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This section contains annual data beginning in 1985, and monthly data for the most recent two years. Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world. This balance is presented in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. This section contains annual data for the most recent year, quarterly data for the most recent two quarters, and monthly data for the most recent twelve months. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries. World oil production and OECD demand data are for the years 1970 through 1994; OECD stocks from 1973 through 1994; and OECD trade from 1984 through 1994.

  18. Statistical Mechanics of Zooplankton.

    PubMed

    Hinow, Peter; Nihongi, Ai; Strickler, J Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics provides the link between microscopic properties of many-particle systems and macroscopic properties such as pressure and temperature. Observations of similar "microscopic" quantities exist for the motion of zooplankton, as well as many species of other social animals. Herein, we propose to take average squared velocities as the definition of the "ecological temperature" of a population under different conditions on nutrients, light, oxygen and others. We test the usefulness of this definition on observations of the crustacean zooplankton Daphnia pulicaria. In one set of experiments, D. pulicaria is infested with the pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera. We find that infested D. pulicaria under light exposure have a significantly greater ecological temperature, which puts them at a greater risk of detection by visual predators. In a second set of experiments, we observe D. pulicaria in cold and warm water, and in darkness and under light exposure. Overall, our ecological temperature is a good discriminator of the crustacean's swimming behavior.

  19. Statistical Mechanics of Zooplankton

    PubMed Central

    Hinow, Peter; Nihongi, Ai; Strickler, J. Rudi

    2015-01-01

    Statistical mechanics provides the link between microscopic properties of many-particle systems and macroscopic properties such as pressure and temperature. Observations of similar “microscopic” quantities exist for the motion of zooplankton, as well as many species of other social animals. Herein, we propose to take average squared velocities as the definition of the “ecological temperature” of a population under different conditions on nutrients, light, oxygen and others. We test the usefulness of this definition on observations of the crustacean zooplankton Daphnia pulicaria. In one set of experiments, D. pulicaria is infested with the pathogen Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera. We find that infested D. pulicaria under light exposure have a significantly greater ecological temperature, which puts them at a greater risk of detection by visual predators. In a second set of experiments, we observe D. pulicaria in cold and warm water, and in darkness and under light exposure. Overall, our ecological temperature is a good discriminator of the crustacean’s swimming behavior. PMID:26270537

  20. International petroleum statistics report

    SciTech Connect

    1997-07-01

    The International Petroleum Statistics Report is a monthly publication that provides current international data. The report presents data on international oil production, demand, imports, and stocks. The report has four sections. Section 1 contains time series data on world oil production, and on oil demand and stocks in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This section contains annual data beginning in 1985, and monthly data for the most recent two years. Section 2 presents an oil supply/demand balance for the world. This balance is presented in quarterly intervals for the most recent two years. Section 3 presents data on oil imports by OECD countries. This section contains annual data for the most recent year, quarterly data for the most recent two quarters, and monthly data for the most recent 12 months. Section 4 presents annual time series data on world oil production and oil stocks, demand, and trade in OECD countries. World oil production and OECD demand data are for the years 1970 through 1996; OECD stocks from 1973 through 1996; and OECD trade from 1986 through 1996.

  1. Information in statistical physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balian, Roger

    We review with a tutorial scope the information theory foundations of quantum statistical physics. Only a small proportion of the variables that characterize a system at the microscopic scale can be controlled, for both practical and theoretical reasons, and a probabilistic description involving the observers is required. The criterion of maximum von Neumann entropy is then used for making reasonable inferences. It means that no spurious information is introduced besides the known data. Its outcomes can be given a direct justification based on the principle of indifference of Laplace. We introduce the concept of relevant entropy associated with some set of relevant variables; it characterizes the information that is missing at the microscopic level when only these variables are known. For equilibrium problems, the relevant variables are the conserved ones, and the Second Law is recovered as a second step of the inference process. For non-equilibrium problems, the increase of the relevant entropy expresses an irretrievable loss of information from the relevant variables towards the irrelevant ones. Two examples illustrate the flexibility of the choice of relevant variables and the multiplicity of the associated entropies: the thermodynamic entropy (satisfying the Clausius-Duhem inequality) and the Boltzmann entropy (satisfying the H -theorem). The identification of entropy with missing information is also supported by the paradox of Maxwell's demon. Spin-echo experiments show that irreversibility itself is not an absolute concept: use of hidden information may overcome the arrow of time.

  2. Statistical Mechanics of Money

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dragulescu, Adrian; Yakovenko, Victor

    2000-03-01

    We study a network of agents exchanging money between themselves. We find that the stationary probability distribution of money M is the Gibbs distribution exp(-M/T), where T is an effective ``temperature'' equal to the average amount of money per agent. This is in agreement with the general laws of statistical mechanics, because money is conserved during each transaction and the number of agents is held constant. We have verified the emergence of the Gibbs distribution in computer simulations of various trading rules and models. When the time-reversal symmetry of the trading rules is explicitly broken, deviations from the Gibbs distribution may occur, as follows from the Boltzmann-equation approach to the problem. Money distribution characterizes the purchasing power of a system. A seller would maximize his/her income by setting the price of a product equal to the temperature T of the system. Buying products from a system of temperature T1 and selling it to a system of temperature T2 would generate profit T_2-T_1>0, as in a thermal machine.

  3. Statistical mechanics of nucleosomes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chereji, Razvan V.

    Eukaryotic cells contain long DNA molecules (about two meters for a human cell) which are tightly packed inside the micrometric nuclei. Nucleosomes are the basic packaging unit of the DNA which allows this millionfold compactification. A longstanding puzzle is to understand the principles which allow cells to both organize their genomes into chromatin fibers in the crowded space of their nuclei, and also to keep the DNA accessible to many factors and enzymes. With the nucleosomes covering about three quarters of the DNA, their positions are essential because these influence which genes can be regulated by the transcription factors and which cannot. We study physical models which predict the genome-wide organization of the nucleosomes and also the relevant energies which dictate this organization. In the last five years, the study of chromatin knew many important advances. In particular, in the field of nucleosome positioning, new techniques of identifying nucleosomes and the competing DNA-binding factors appeared, as chemical mapping with hydroxyl radicals, ChIP-exo, among others, the resolution of the nucleosome maps increased by using paired-end sequencing, and the price of sequencing an entire genome decreased. We present a rigorous statistical mechanics model which is able to explain the recent experimental results by taking into account nucleosome unwrapping, competition between different DNA-binding proteins, and both the interaction between histones and DNA, and between neighboring histones. We show a series of predictions of our new model, all in agreement with the experimental observations.

  4. Statistics: It's in the Numbers!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deal, Mary M.; Deal, Walter F., III

    2007-01-01

    Mathematics and statistics play important roles in peoples' lives today. A day hardly passes that they are not bombarded with many different kinds of statistics. As consumers they see statistical information as they surf the web, watch television, listen to their satellite radios, or even read the nutrition facts panel on a cereal box in the…

  5. Digest of Education Statistics, 1980.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grant, W. Vance; Eiden, Leo J.

    The primary purpose of this publication is to provide an abstract of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school. Statistical information is presented in 14 figures and 200 tables with brief trend analyses. In addition to updating many of the statistics that have appeared in…

  6. Statistical log analysis made practical

    SciTech Connect

    Mitchell, W.K.; Nelson, R.J. )

    1991-06-01

    This paper discusses the advantages of a statistical approach to log analysis. Statistical techniques use inverse methods to calculate formation parameters. The use of statistical techniques has been limited, however, by the complexity of the mathematics and lengthy computer time required to minimize traditionally used nonlinear equations.

  7. Invention Activities Support Statistical Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Carmen Petrick; Kenlan, Kris

    2016-01-01

    Students' experiences with statistics and data analysis in middle school are often limited to little more than making and interpreting graphs. Although students may develop fluency in statistical procedures and vocabulary, they frequently lack the skills necessary to apply statistical reasoning in situations other than clear-cut textbook examples.…

  8. Teaching Statistics Online Using "Excel"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jerome, Lawrence

    2011-01-01

    As anyone who has taught or taken a statistics course knows, statistical calculations can be tedious and error-prone, with the details of a calculation sometimes distracting students from understanding the larger concepts. Traditional statistics courses typically use scientific calculators, which can relieve some of the tedium and errors but…

  9. A New Statistical Parameter for Identifying the Main Transition Velocities in Bubble Columns.

    PubMed

    Nedeltchev, Stoyan; Rabha, Swapna; Hampel, Uwe; Schubert, Markus

    2015-11-01

    The identification of the main flow regime boundaries in bubble columns is essential since the degrees of mixing and mass and heat transfer vary with the flow regime. In this work, a new statistical parameter was extracted from the time series of the cross-sectional averaged gas holdup. The measurements were performed in bubble columns by means of conductivity wire-mesh sensors at very high sampling frequency. The columns were operated with an air/deionized water system under ambient conditions. As a flow regime indicator, a new dimensionless statistical parameter called "relative maximum number of visits in a region" was introduced. This new parameter is a function of the difference between the maximum numbers of visits in a region, calculated from two different division schemes of the signal range.

  10. A New Statistical Parameter for Identifying the Main Transition Velocities in Bubble Columns*

    PubMed Central

    Nedeltchev, Stoyan; Rabha, Swapna; Hampel, Uwe; Schubert, Markus

    2015-01-01

    The identification of the main flow regime boundaries in bubble columns is essential since the degrees of mixing and mass and heat transfer vary with the flow regime. In this work, a new statistical parameter was extracted from the time series of the cross-sectional averaged gas holdup. The measurements were performed in bubble columns by means of conductivity wire-mesh sensors at very high sampling frequency. The columns were operated with an air/deionized water system under ambient conditions. As a flow regime indicator, a new dimensionless statistical parameter called “relative maximum number of visits in a region” was introduced. This new parameter is a function of the difference between the maximum numbers of visits in a region, calculated from two different division schemes of the signal range. PMID:27570374

  11. Statistical classification of flow morphology in rapidly rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nieves, David; Rubio, Antonio M.; Julien, Keith

    2014-08-01

    In rapidly rotating convection four flow regimes with distinct characteristics have been identified via simulations of asymptotically reduced equations as a function of a reduced Rayleigh number RaE4/3 and Prandtl number σ (K. Julien, A. Rubio, I. Grooms, and E. Knobloch, "Statistical and physical balances in low Rossby number Rayleigh-Bénard convection," Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 106, 392-428 (2012)). In each regime the flow organizes, with varying intensity, into coherent vertical structures. The identified morphologies, in order of increasing RaE4/3, consist of the cellular regime, the convective Taylor column regime, the plume regime, and a regime characterized by geostrophic turbulence. Presently, physical limitations on laboratory experiments and spatio-temporal resolution challenges on direct numerical simulations of the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations inhibit an exhaustive analysis of the flow morphology in the rapid rotating limit. In this paper the flow morphologies obtained from simulations of the reduced equations are investigated from a statistical perspective. We utilize auto- and cross-correlations of temporal and spatial signals that synthesize experimental data obtained from thermistor measurements or particle image velocimetry. We show how these statistics can be employed in laboratory experiments to (i) identify transitions in the flow morphology, (ii) capture the radial profiles of coherent structures, and (iii) extract transport properties of these structures. These results provide a foundation for comparison and a measure for understanding the extent to which rotationally constrained regime has been accessed by laboratory experiments and direct numerical simulations.

  12. Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results.

    PubMed

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

    2010-03-03

    In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

  13. Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part II: Proofs of Results*

    PubMed Central

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M.

    2010-01-01

    In this companion article to “Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content” [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption. PMID:20405047

  14. North Sea wind climate in changing weather regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, Ivonne; Rockel, Burkhardt

    2015-04-01

    Results from regional climate models (RCMs) are getting more and more important in future wind climate assessment. From RCMs often only the daily wind speed is available, but no information on prevailing wind direction of each day. Weather regime classification can close this gap and models ability of simulating surface wind speed can be analysed in detail. Several objective regime classifications have been investigated to be a sufficient diagnostic tool to evaluate the present wind climate at the German and Dutch coastal area of the North Sea. The classification by Jenkinson and Collison (1977) uses values for mean sea level pressure at 16 locations centered over the North Sea. Beside the predefined 8 prevailed wind directions and the two possibilities on cyclonic or anticyclonic turbulence, 2x8 hybrid weather types can be defined. In this way 27 different regimes can be distinguished including a class of non-classifiable cases. The 27 regimes could be reduced to a number of 11 by allotting the hybrid types to the directional or the centered types. As the classification is carried out for the North Sea based on ERA40 mean sea level pressure the different regimes clearly reflect the mean wind characteristics at the stations. Comparing the wind roses for the individual observations leads to the assumption that the regime classification described before fits the requirements to carry out the regime dependent evaluation of the RCMs with a focus on the German and Dutch coast. Trends in the occurrence of the regimes in the winter period of 1961 to 2000 show an increase of the regimes with Western and Southwestern wind directions and a decrease of wind events from Eastern directions in the North Sea. The trend is dominated by the strong positive phase of the NAO especially in the months January to March starting in the beginning of the 1980s. Due to the applied method ERA40 and the RCMs do not necessarily show the same regime at each day. The agreement among the RCM

  15. Breast cancer statistics, 2011.

    PubMed

    DeSantis, Carol; Siegel, Rebecca; Bandi, Priti; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2011-01-01

    In this article, the American Cancer Society provides an overview of female breast cancer statistics in the United States, including trends in incidence, mortality, survival, and screening. Approximately 230,480 new cases of invasive breast cancer and 39,520 breast cancer deaths are expected to occur among US women in 2011. Breast cancer incidence rates were stable among all racial/ethnic groups from 2004 to 2008. Breast cancer death rates have been declining since the early 1990s for all women except American Indians/Alaska Natives, among whom rates have remained stable. Disparities in breast cancer death rates are evident by state, socioeconomic status, and race/ethnicity. While significant declines in mortality rates were observed for 36 states and the District of Columbia over the past 10 years, rates for 14 states remained level. Analyses by county-level poverty rates showed that the decrease in mortality rates began later and was slower among women residing in poor areas. As a result, the highest breast cancer death rates shifted from the affluent areas to the poor areas in the early 1990s. Screening rates continue to be lower in poor women compared with non-poor women, despite much progress in increasing mammography utilization. In 2008, 51.4% of poor women had undergone a screening mammogram in the past 2 years compared with 72.8% of non-poor women. Encouraging patients aged 40 years and older to have annual mammography and a clinical breast examination is the single most important step that clinicians can take to reduce suffering and death from breast cancer. Clinicians should also ensure that patients at high risk of breast cancer are identified and offered appropriate screening and follow-up. Continued progress in the control of breast cancer will require sustained and increased efforts to provide high-quality screening, diagnosis, and treatment to all segments of the population.

  16. Ideal statistically quasi Cauchy sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savas, Ekrem; Cakalli, Huseyin

    2016-08-01

    An ideal I is a family of subsets of N, the set of positive integers which is closed under taking finite unions and subsets of its elements. A sequence (xk) of real numbers is said to be S(I)-statistically convergent to a real number L, if for each ɛ > 0 and for each δ > 0 the set { n ∈N :1/n | { k ≤n :| xk-L | ≥ɛ } | ≥δ } belongs to I. We introduce S(I)-statistically ward compactness of a subset of R, the set of real numbers, and S(I)-statistically ward continuity of a real function in the senses that a subset E of R is S(I)-statistically ward compact if any sequence of points in E has an S(I)-statistically quasi-Cauchy subsequence, and a real function is S(I)-statistically ward continuous if it preserves S(I)-statistically quasi-Cauchy sequences where a sequence (xk) is called to be S(I)-statistically quasi-Cauchy when (Δxk) is S(I)-statistically convergent to 0. We obtain results related to S(I)-statistically ward continuity, S(I)-statistically ward compactness, Nθ-ward continuity, and slowly oscillating continuity.

  17. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales.

  18. Basic statistics in cell biology.

    PubMed

    Vaux, David L

    2014-01-01

    The physicist Ernest Rutherford said, "If your experiment needs statistics, you ought to have done a better experiment." Although this aphorism remains true for much of today's research in cell biology, a basic understanding of statistics can be useful to cell biologists to help in monitoring the conduct of their experiments, in interpreting the results, in presenting them in publications, and when critically evaluating research by others. However, training in statistics is often focused on the sophisticated needs of clinical researchers, psychologists, and epidemiologists, whose conclusions depend wholly on statistics, rather than the practical needs of cell biologists, whose experiments often provide evidence that is not statistical in nature. This review describes some of the basic statistical principles that may be of use to experimental biologists, but it does not cover the sophisticated statistics needed for papers that contain evidence of no other kind.

  19. AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

  20. USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

  1. How Good Are Statistical Models at Approximating Complex Fitness Landscapes?

    PubMed

    du Plessis, Louis; Leventhal, Gabriel E; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2016-09-01

    Fitness landscapes determine the course of adaptation by constraining and shaping evolutionary trajectories. Knowledge of the structure of a fitness landscape can thus predict evolutionary outcomes. Empirical fitness landscapes, however, have so far only offered limited insight into real-world questions, as the high dimensionality of sequence spaces makes it impossible to exhaustively measure the fitness of all variants of biologically meaningful sequences. We must therefore revert to statistical descriptions of fitness landscapes that are based on a sparse sample of fitness measurements. It remains unclear, however, how much data are required for such statistical descriptions to be useful. Here, we assess the ability of regression models accounting for single and pairwise mutations to correctly approximate a complex quasi-empirical fitness landscape. We compare approximations based on various sampling regimes of an RNA landscape and find that the sampling regime strongly influences the quality of the regression. On the one hand it is generally impossible to generate sufficient samples to achieve a good approximation of the complete fitness landscape, and on the other hand systematic sampling schemes can only provide a good description of the immediate neighborhood of a sequence of interest. Nevertheless, we obtain a remarkably good and unbiased fit to the local landscape when using sequences from a population that has evolved under strong selection. Thus, current statistical methods can provide a good approximation to the landscape of naturally evolving populations.

  2. Statistical modeling of natural backgrounds in hyperspectral LWIR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truslow, Eric; Manolakis, Dimitris; Cooley, Thomas; Meola, Joseph

    2016-09-01

    Hyperspectral sensors operating in the long wave infrared (LWIR) have a wealth of applications including remote material identification and rare target detection. While statistical models for modeling surface reflectance in visible and near-infrared regimes have been well studied, models for the temperature and emissivity in the LWIR have not been rigorously investigated. In this paper, we investigate modeling hyperspectral LWIR data using a statistical mixture model for the emissivity and surface temperature. Statistical models for the surface parameters can be used to simulate surface radiances and at-sensor radiance which drives the variability of measured radiance and ultimately the performance of signal processing algorithms. Thus, having models that adequately capture data variation is extremely important for studying performance trades. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we study the validity of this model using real hyperspectral data, and compare the relative variability of hyperspectral data in the LWIR and visible and near-infrared (VNIR) regimes. Second, we illustrate how materials that are easily distinguished in the VNIR, may be difficult to separate when imaged in the LWIR.

  3. Characterizing Sub-Daily Flow Regimes: Implications of Hydrologic Resolution on Ecohydrology Studies

    DOE PAGES

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; McManamay, Ryan A.; O'Connor, B.

    2014-05-26

    Natural variability in flow is a primary factor controlling geomorphic and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. Within the hydropower industry, there is growing pressure from environmental groups and natural resource managers to change reservoir releases from daily peaking to run-of-river operations on the basis of the assumption that downstream biological communities will improve under a more natural flow regime. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing sub-daily flows for understanding the physical and ecological dynamics within river systems. We present a variety of metrics for characterizing sub-daily flow variation and use these metrics to evaluate general trends amongmore » streams affected by peaking hydroelectric projects, run-of-river projects and streams that are largely unaffected by flow altering activities. Univariate and multivariate techniques were used to assess similarity among different stream types on the basis of these sub-daily metrics. For comparison, similar analyses were performed using analogous metrics calculated with mean daily flow values. Our results confirm that sub-daily flow metrics reveal variation among and within streams that are not captured by daily flow statistics. Using sub-daily flow statistics, we were able to quantify the degree of difference between unaltered and peaking streams and the amount of similarity between unaltered and run-of-river streams. The sub-daily statistics were largely uncorrelated with daily statistics of similar scope. Furthermore, on short temporal scales, sub-daily statistics reveal the relatively constant nature of unaltered streamreaches and the highly variable nature of hydropower-affected streams, whereas daily statistics show just the opposite over longer temporal scales.« less

  4. Characterizing Sub-Daily Flow Regimes: Implications of Hydrologic Resolution on Ecohydrology Studies

    SciTech Connect

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; McManamay, Ryan A.; O'Connor, B.

    2014-05-26

    Natural variability in flow is a primary factor controlling geomorphic and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. Within the hydropower industry, there is growing pressure from environmental groups and natural resource managers to change reservoir releases from daily peaking to run-of-river operations on the basis of the assumption that downstream biological communities will improve under a more natural flow regime. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing sub-daily flows for understanding the physical and ecological dynamics within river systems. We present a variety of metrics for characterizing sub-daily flow variation and use these metrics to evaluate general trends among streams affected by peaking hydroelectric projects, run-of-river projects and streams that are largely unaffected by flow altering activities. Univariate and multivariate techniques were used to assess similarity among different stream types on the basis of these sub-daily metrics. For comparison, similar analyses were performed using analogous metrics calculated with mean daily flow values. Our results confirm that sub-daily flow metrics reveal variation among and within streams that are not captured by daily flow statistics. Using sub-daily flow statistics, we were able to quantify the degree of difference between unaltered and peaking streams and the amount of similarity between unaltered and run-of-river streams. The sub-daily statistics were largely uncorrelated with daily statistics of similar scope. Furthermore, on short temporal scales, sub-daily statistics reveal the relatively constant nature of unaltered streamreaches and the highly variable nature of hydropower-affected streams, whereas daily statistics show just the opposite over longer temporal scales.

  5. Regime shifts in North Sea and Baltic Sea: A comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Möller, Caroline; Hänninen, Jari

    2012-12-01

    The ICES subdivisions in the North Sea (SD IIIa, SD IVa, and SD IVb) and the subdivisions in the Baltic Sea (SD 29, SD 27/28-2, and SD 25/26) are selected to compare the response in long term monitoring data (1970-2000) with respect to climate regime shifts. A modified AMOEBA model is applied to the data sets to identify the status and development of the North Sea and Baltic Sea system during two recent regime shifts. Biological regime shifts can be identified 1989/1990 in SD IIIa in the North Sea and in SD 25/26 in the Baltic Sea. A synchronous appearance of regime shifts could only be identified in the central and southern Baltic Sea for both regime shifts 1975/76 and 1989/90 where the AMOEBA model indicated a high similarity in ecosystem response. A clear difference was identified in the response of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability as well as regime shifts are driven in the Baltic Sea by direct atmospheric forcing only. In contrast, the changes in the North Sea are influenced by both the direct atmospheric forcing and the indirect forcing from the changes in North Atlantic. The fact that regime shifts as well as their synchronous appearance can be identified with the AMOEBA model might be of major interest for the management of sustainable use of ecosystem goods and services, the development of ecosystem approach to management and the implementation of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) of the European Union (EU).

  6. Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

    2015-03-01

    Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

  7. Time-scale and branching ratios in sequential multifragmentation

    SciTech Connect

    Moretto, L.G.; Phair, L.; Tso, K.; Jing, K.; Wozniak, G.J.

    1994-04-01

    Experimental intermediate-mass-fragment multiplicity distributions are shown to be binomial at all excitation energies. From these distributions a single binary event probability can be extracted that has the thermal dependence p= exp[{minus}B/T]. Thus, it is inferred that multi fragmentation is a sequence of thermal binary events. The increase of p with excitation energy implies a corresponding contraction of the time-scale and explains recently observed fragment-fragment and fragment-spectator Coulomb correlations.

  8. Flow regimes and mechanistic modeling of critical heat flux under subcooled flow boiling conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Corre, Jean-Marie

    Thermal performance of heat flux controlled boiling heat exchangers are usually limited by the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) above which the heat transfer degrades quickly, possibly leading to heater overheating and destruction. In an effort to better understand the phenomena, a literature review of CHF experimental visualizations under subcooled flow boiling conditions was performed and systematically analyzed. Three major types of CHF flow regimes were identified (bubbly, vapor clot and slug flow regime) and a CHF flow regime map was developed, based on a dimensional analysis of the phenomena and available data. It was found that for similar geometric characteristics and pressure, a Weber number (We)/thermodynamic quality (x) map can be used to predict the CHF flow regime. Based on the experimental observations and the review of the available CHF mechanistic models under subcooled flow boiling conditions, hypothetical CHF mechanisms were selected for each CHF flow regime, all based on a concept of wall dry spot overheating, rewetting prevention and subsequent dry spot spreading. It is postulated that a high local wall superheat occurs locally in a dry area of the heated wall, due to a cyclical event inherent to the considered CHF two-phase flow regime, preventing rewetting (Leidenfrost effect). The selected modeling concept has the potential to span the CHF conditions from highly subcooled bubbly flow to early stage of annular flow. A numerical model using a two-dimensional transient thermal analysis of the heater undergoing nucleation was developed to mechanistically predict CHF in the case of a bubbly flow regime. In this type of CHF two-phase flow regime, the high local wall superheat occurs underneath a nucleating bubble at the time of bubble departure. The model simulates the spatial and temporal heater temperature variations during nucleation at the wall, accounting for the stochastic nature of the boiling phenomena. The model has also the potential to evaluate

  9. Online recognition of the multiphase flow regime and study of slug flow in pipeline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liejin, Guo; Bofeng, Bai; Liang, Zhao; Xin, Wang; Hanyang, Gu

    2009-02-01

    Multiphase flow is the phenomenon existing widely in nature, daily life, as well as petroleum and chemical engineering industrial fields. The interface structure among multiphase and their movement are complicated, which distribute random and heterogeneously in the spatial and temporal scales and have multivalue of the flow structure and state[1]. Flow regime is defined as the macro feature about the multiphase interface structure and its distribution, which is an important feature to describe multiphase flow. The energy and mass transport mechanism differ much for each flow regimes. It is necessary to solve the flow regime recognition to get a clear understanding of the physical phenomena and their mechanism of multiphase flow. And the flow regime is one of the main factors affecting the online measurement accuracy of phase fraction, flow rate and other phase parameters. Therefore, it is of great scientific and technological importance to develop new principles and methods of multiphase flow regime online recognition, and of great industrial background. In this paper, the key reasons that the present method cannot be used to solve the industrial multiphase flow pattern recognition are clarified firstly. Then the prerequisite to realize the online recognition of multiphase flow regime is analyzed, and the recognition rules for partial flow pattern are obtained based on the massive experimental data. The standard templates for every flow regime feature are calculated with self-organization cluster algorithm. The multi-sensor data fusion method is proposed to realize the online recognition of multiphase flow regime with the pressure and differential pressure signals, which overcomes the severe influence of fluid flow velocity and the oil fraction on the recognition. The online recognition method is tested in the practice, which has less than 10 percent measurement error. The method takes advantages of high confidence, good fault tolerance and less requirement of

  10. Cancer Statistics, 2017.

    PubMed

    Siegel, Rebecca L; Miller, Kimberly D; Jemal, Ahmedin

    2017-01-01

    Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the numbers of new cancer cases and deaths that will occur in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival. Incidence data were collected by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program; the National Program of Cancer Registries; and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries. Mortality data were collected by the National Center for Health Statistics. In 2017, 1,688,780 new cancer cases and 600,920 cancer deaths are projected to occur in the United States. For all sites combined, the cancer incidence rate is 20% higher in men than in women, while the cancer death rate is 40% higher. However, sex disparities vary by cancer type. For example, thyroid cancer incidence rates are 3-fold higher in women than in men (21 vs 7 per 100,000 population), despite equivalent death rates (0.5 per 100,000 population), largely reflecting sex differences in the "epidemic of diagnosis." Over the past decade of available data, the overall cancer incidence rate (2004-2013) was stable in women and declined by approximately 2% annually in men, while the cancer death rate (2005-2014) declined by about 1.5% annually in both men and women. From 1991 to 2014, the overall cancer death rate dropped 25%, translating to approximately 2,143,200 fewer cancer deaths than would have been expected if death rates had remained at their peak. Although the cancer death rate was 15% higher in blacks than in whites in 2014, increasing access to care as a result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act may expedite the narrowing racial gap; from 2010 to 2015, the proportion of blacks who were uninsured halved, from 21% to 11%, as it did for Hispanics (31% to 16%). Gains in coverage for traditionally underserved Americans will facilitate the broader application of existing cancer control knowledge across every segment of the population. CA Cancer J Clin

  11. Chemists, Access, Statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holmes, Jon L.

    2000-06-01

    IP-number access. Current subscriptions can be upgraded to IP-number access at little additional cost. We are pleased to be able to offer to institutions and libraries this convenient mode of access to subscriber only resources at JCE Online. JCE Online Usage Statistics We are continually amazed by the activity at JCE Online. So far, the year 2000 has shown a marked increase. Given the phenomenal overall growth of the Internet, perhaps our surprise is not warranted. However, during the months of January and February 2000, over 38,000 visitors requested over 275,000 pages. This is a monthly increase of over 33% from the October-December 1999 levels. It is good to know that people are visiting, but we would very much like to know what you would most like to see at JCE Online. Please send your suggestions to JCEOnline@chem.wisc.edu. For those who are interested, JCE Online year-to-date statistics are available. Biographical Snapshots of Famous Chemists: Mission Statement Feature Editor: Barbara Burke Chemistry Department, California State Polytechnic University-Pomona, Pomona, CA 91768 phone: 909/869-3664 fax: 909/869-4616 email: baburke@csupomona.edu The primary goal of this JCE Internet column is to provide information about chemists who have made important contributions to chemistry. For each chemist, there is a short biographical "snapshot" that provides basic information about the person's chemical work, gender, ethnicity, and cultural background. Each snapshot includes links to related websites and to a biobibliographic database. The database provides references for the individual and can be searched through key words listed at the end of each snapshot. All students, not just science majors, need to understand science as it really is: an exciting, challenging, human, and creative way of learning about our natural world. Investigating the life experiences of chemists can provide a means for students to gain a more realistic view of chemistry. In addition students

  12. Liquid drop spreading on surfaces: Initial regimes revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitra, Surjyasish; Mitra, Sushanta

    2016-11-01

    Liquid drop spreading on a given surface is fundamental towards technological processes like coating and paints, inkjet printing, surface characterization, etc. Though, the underlying dynamics is well understood, we have revisited this problem through experiments conducted on surfaces kept in air as well as immersed in water. It was found that the two key parameters that dictated the spreading process were drop-surrounding medium viscosity ratio and the characteristic viscous length scale. It was observed that irrespective of the drop liquid and surrounding liquid medium (air and water in this case), spreading always began in a regime dominated by drop viscosity, where the spreading radius scales as r t . However, the prefactor of the scaling observed was different for air (of the order of unity) and under-water (much less than unity). Following this initial regime, a second intermediate regime dominated by drop inertia (typically found for water drops spreading in air) was observed only when the characteristic viscous length scale favored such a transition. In this regime as well, a non-universal prefactor was noted for the scaling law, i.e., r t1/2. In all cases considered, the spreading process terminated in the Tanner's regime where the spreading radius scaled as r t1/10.

  13. Differentially Rotating White Dwarfs I: Regimes of Internal Rotation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Pranab; Wheeler, J. Craig

    2017-01-01

    Most viable models of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) require the thermonuclear explosion of a carbon/oxygen white dwarf that has evolved in a binary system. Rotation could be an important aspect of any model for SNe Ia, whether single or double degenerate, with the white dwarf mass at, below, or above the Chandrasekhar limit. Differential rotation is specifically invoked in attempts to account for the apparent excess mass in the super-Chandrasekhar events. Some earlier work has suggested that only uniform rotation is consistent with the expected mechanisms of angular momentum transport in white dwarfs, while others have found pronounced differential rotation. We show that if the baroclinic instability is active in degenerate matter and the effects of magnetic fields are neglected, both nearly uniform rotation and strongly differential rotation are possible. We classify rotation regimes in terms of the Richardson number, Ri. At small values of Ri ≤slant 0.1, we find both the low-viscosity Zahn regime with a nonmonotonic angular velocity profile and a new differential rotation regime for which the viscosity is high and scales linearly with the shear, σ. Employment of Kelvin–Helmholtz viscosity alone yields differential rotation. Large values of Ri ≫ 1 produce a regime of nearly uniform rotation for which the baroclinic viscosity is of intermediate value and scales as {σ }3. We discuss the gap in understanding of the behavior at intermediate values of Ri and how observations may constrain the rotation regimes attained by nature.

  14. Regimes of Internal Rotation in Differentially Rotating White Dwarfs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, J. Craig; Ghosh, Pranab

    2017-01-01

    Most viable models of Type Ia supernovae (SN Ia) require the thermonuclear explosion of a carbon/oxygen white dwarf that has evolved in a binary system. Rotation could be an important aspect of any model for SN Ia, whether single or double degenerate, with the white dwarf mass at, below, or above the Chandrasekhar limit. Differential rotation is specifically invoked in attempts to account for the apparent excess mass in the super--Chandrasekhar events. Some earlier work has suggested that only uniform rotation is consistent with the expected mechanisms of angular momentum transport in white dwarfs, while others have found pronounced differential rotation. We show that if the baroclinic instability is active in degenerate matter and the effects of magnetic fields are neglected, both nearly-uniform and strongly-differential rotation are possible. We classify rotation regimes in terms of the Richardson number, Ri. At small values of Ri < 0.1, we find both the low-viscosity Zahn regime with a non-monotonic angular velocity profile and a new differential rotation regime for which the viscosity is high and scales linearly with the shear, σ. Employment of Kelvin-Helmholtz viscosity alone yields differential rotation. Large values of Ri >> 1 produce a regime of nearly-uniform rotation for which the baroclinic viscosity is of intermediate value and scales as σ3. We discuss the gap in understanding of the behavior at intermediate values of Ri and how observations may constrain the rotation regimes attained by nature.

  15. THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR SAFETY REGIME IN BRAZIL

    SciTech Connect

    Almeida, C.

    2004-10-06

    A turning point of the world nuclear industry with respect to safety occurred due to the accident at Chernobyl, in 1986. A side from the tragic personal losses and the enormous financial damage, the Chernobyl accident has literally demonstrated that ''a nuclear accident anywhere is an accident everywhere''. The impact was felt immediately by the nuclear industry, with plant cancellations (e.g. Austria), elimination of national programs (e.g. Italy) and general construction delays. However, the reaction of the nuclear industry was equally immediate, which led to the proposal and establishment of a Global Nuclear Safety Regime. This regime is composed of biding international safety conventions, globally accepted safety standard, and a voluntary peer review system. In a previous work, the author has presented in detail the components of this Regime, and briefly discussed its impact in the Brazilian nuclear power organizations, including the Regulatory Body. This work, on the opposite, briefly reviews the Global Nuclear Safety Regime, and concentrates in detail in the discussion of its impact in Brazil, showing how it has produced some changes, and where the peer pressure regime has failed to produce real results.

  16. Early regimes of water capillary flow in slit silica nanochannels.

    PubMed

    Oyarzua, Elton; Walther, Jens H; Mejía, Andrés; Zambrano, Harvey A

    2015-06-14

    Molecular dynamics simulations are conducted to investigate the initial stages of spontaneous imbibition of water in slit silica nanochannels surrounded by air. An analysis is performed for the effects of nanoscopic confinement, initial conditions of liquid uptake and air pressurization on the dynamics of capillary filling. The results indicate that the nanoscale imbibition process is divided into three main flow regimes: an initial regime where the capillary force is balanced only by the inertial drag and characterized by a constant velocity and a plug flow profile. In this regime, the meniscus formation process plays a central role in the imbibition rate. Thereafter, a transitional regime takes place, in which, the force balance has significant contributions from both inertia and viscous friction. Subsequently, a regime wherein viscous forces dominate the capillary force balance is attained. Flow velocity profiles identify the passage from an inviscid flow to a developing Poiseuille flow. Gas density profiles ahead of the capillary front indicate a transient accumulation of air on the advancing meniscus. Furthermore, slower capillary filling rates computed for higher air pressures reveal a significant retarding effect of the gas displaced by the advancing meniscus.

  17. Similarity in Neuronal Firing Regimes across Mammalian Species

    PubMed Central

    Mochizuki, Yasuhiro; Onaga, Tomokatsu; Shimazaki, Hideaki; Shimokawa, Takeaki; Tsubo, Yasuhiro; Kimura, Rie; Saiki, Akiko; Sakai, Yutaka; Isomura, Yoshikazu; Fujisawa, Shigeyoshi; Shibata, Ken-ichi; Hirai, Daichi; Furuta, Takahiro; Kaneko, Takeshi; Takahashi, Susumu; Nakazono, Tomoaki; Ishino, Seiya; Sakurai, Yoshio; Kitsukawa, Takashi; Lee, Jong Won; Lee, Hyunjung; Jung, Min Whan; Babul, Cecilia; Maldonado, Pedro E.; Takahashi, Kazutaka; Arce-McShane, Fritzie I.; Ross, Callum F.; Sessle, Barry J.; Hatsopoulos, Nicholas G.; Brochier, Thomas; Riehle, Alexa; Chorley, Paul; Grün, Sonja; Nishijo, Hisao; Ichihara-Takeda, Satoe; Funahashi, Shintaro; Shima, Keisetsu; Mushiake, Hajime; Yamane, Yukako; Tamura, Hiroshi; Fujita, Ichiro; Inaba, Naoko; Kawano, Kenji; Kurkin, Sergei; Fukushima, Kikuro; Kurata, Kiyoshi; Taira, Masato; Tsutsui, Ken-Ichiro; Ogawa, Tadashi; Komatsu, Hidehiko; Koida, Kowa; Toyama, Keisuke; Richmond, Barry J.

    2016-01-01

    The architectonic subdivisions of the brain are believed to be functional modules, each processing parts of global functions. Previously, we showed that neurons in different regions operate in different firing regimes in monkeys. It is possible that firing regimes reflect differences in underlying information processing, and consequently the firing regimes in homologous regions across animal species might be similar. We analyzed neuronal spike trains recorded from behaving mice, rats, cats, and monkeys. The firing regularity differed systematically, with differences across regions in one species being greater than the differences in similar areas across species. Neuronal firing was consistently most regular in motor areas, nearly random in visual and prefrontal/medial prefrontal cortical areas, and bursting in the hippocampus in all animals examined. This suggests that firing regularity (or irregularity) plays a key role in neural computation in each functional subdivision, depending on the types of information being carried. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT By analyzing neuronal spike trains recorded from mice, rats, cats, and monkeys, we found that different brain regions have intrinsically different firing regimes that are more similar in homologous areas across species than across areas in one species. Because different regions in the brain are specialized for different functions, the present finding suggests that the different activity regimes of neurons are important for supporting different functions, so that appropriate neuronal codes can be used for different modalities. PMID:27225764

  18. Weather Regimes: The Challenge in Extended-Range Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reinhold, Brian

    1987-01-01

    A hypothesis to explain the low-frequency (10- to 90-day) variance of the mid-latitude atmosphere is presented. In this hypothesis it is proposed that the planetary-scale waves forced by topography or other zonal inhomogeneities and the day-to-day weather disturbances (synoptic scales) influence each other to generate weather regimes. These quasi-stable flow configurations are responsible for short-range climate anomalies such as droughts, heat waves, deep freezes, and excessive precipitation, as the weather-producing disturbances are organized into storm tracks. Onset and disruption of the weather regimes may be induced by the anomalous development of perhaps a single cyclonic disturbance, which can throw the quasi equilibrium out of balance. Thus, rapid changes in flow regimes can occur almost at random. The development and transition of weather regimes may then be purely internal (that is, depending only upon the properties of the fluid motions themselves) to the atmospheric dynamics. This internal quality suggests that the chaotic, abrupt short-range climatic behavior of the mid-latitudes is a natural behavior of the system that requires no assistance from the outside. The weather regime concept presents a different view of the extended-range atmospheric behavior than the stimulus-response model, such as the atmospheric response to the El Nino.

  19. Regime switching model for financial data: Empirical risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salhi, Khaled; Deaconu, Madalina; Lejay, Antoine; Champagnat, Nicolas; Navet, Nicolas

    2016-11-01

    This paper constructs a regime switching model for the univariate Value-at-Risk estimation. Extreme value theory (EVT) and hidden Markov models (HMM) are combined to estimate a hybrid model that takes volatility clustering into account. In the first stage, HMM is used to classify data in crisis and steady periods, while in the second stage, EVT is applied to the previously classified data to rub out the delay between regime switching and their detection. This new model is applied to prices of numerous stocks exchanged on NYSE Euronext Paris over the period 2001-2011. We focus on daily returns for which calibration has to be done on a small dataset. The relative performance of the regime switching model is benchmarked against other well-known modeling techniques, such as stable, power laws and GARCH models. The empirical results show that the regime switching model increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to the number of violations and tail-loss tests. This suggests that the regime switching model is a robust forecasting variant of power laws model while remaining practical to implement the VaR measurement.

  20. Nonlinear regime-switching state-space (RSSS) models.

    PubMed

    Chow, Sy-Miin; Zhang, Guangjian

    2013-10-01

    Nonlinear dynamic factor analysis models extend standard linear dynamic factor analysis models by allowing time series processes to be nonlinear at the latent level (e.g., involving interaction between two latent processes). In practice, it is often of interest to identify the phases--namely, latent "regimes" or classes--during which a system is characterized by distinctly different dynamics. We propose a new class of models, termed nonlinear regime-switching state-space (RSSS) models, which subsumes regime-switching nonlinear dynamic factor analysis models as a special case. In nonlinear RSSS models, the change processes within regimes, represented using a state-space model, are allowed to be nonlinear. An estimation procedure obtained by combining the extended Kalman filter and the Kim filter is proposed as a way to estimate nonlinear RSSS models. We illustrate the utility of nonlinear RSSS models by fitting a nonlinear dynamic factor analysis model with regime-specific cross-regression parameters to a set of experience sampling affect data. The parallels between nonlinear RSSS models and other well-known discrete change models in the literature are discussed briefly.

  1. "Just Another Statistic"

    PubMed

    Machtay; Glatstein

    1998-01-01

    On returning from a medical meeting, we learned that sadly a patient, "Mr. B.," had passed away. His death was a completely unexpected surprise. He had been doing well nine months after a course of intensive radiotherapy for a locally advanced head and neck cancer; in his most recent follow-up notes, he was described as a "complete remission." Nonetheless, he apparently died peacefully in his sleep from a cardiac arrest one night and was found the next day by a concerned neighbor. In our absence, after Mr. B. expired, his death certificate was filled out by a physician who didn't know him in detail, but did know why he recently was treated in our department. The cause of death was listed as head and neck cancer. It wasn't long after his death before we began to receive those notorious "requests for additional information," letters from the statistical office of a well-known cooperative group. Mr. B., as it turns out, was on a clinical trial, and it was "vital" to know further details of the circumstances of his passing. Perhaps this very large cancer had been controlled and Mr. B. succumbed to old age (helped along by the tobacco industry). On the other hand, maybe the residual "fibrosis" in his neck was actually packed with active tumor and his left carotid artery was finally 100% pinched off, or maybe he suffered a massive pulmonary embolism from cancer-related hypercoagulability. The forms and requests were completed with a succinct "cause of death uncertain," adding, "please have the Study Chairs call to discuss this difficult case." Often clinical reports of outcomes utilize and emphasize the endpoint "disease specific survival" (DSS). Like overall survival (OS), the DSS can be calculated by actuarial methods, with patients who have incomplete follow-up "censored" at the time of last follow-up pending further information. In the DSS, however, deaths unrelated to the index cancer of interest are censored at the time of death; thus, a death from intercurrent

  2. Statistical mechanics of 'negative temperature' states. [for plasma

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Montgomery, D.; Joyce, G.

    1974-01-01

    Consideration of the dynamics of a two-dimensional guiding center plasma, recently shown by Taylor and McNamara (1971) to be identical to the dynamics of the discrete vortex model of Onsager (1949). A semirigorous application of the methods of equilibrium statistical mechanics to the guiding center plasma (or equivalently, the line vortex system) is presented. An adaptation of the apparatus of the theory of probability is attempted, in the form given by Khinchin (1949) to obtain ensemble-average predictions for the states of the guiding center plasma. Interest focuses primarily on the regime in which the interaction energy is high enough to be above the Onsager 'negative temperature' threshold.

  3. Soil magnetic susceptibility reflects soil moisture regimes and the adaptability of tree species to these regimes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wang, J.-S.; Grimley, D.A.; Xu, C.; Dawson, J.O.

    2008-01-01

    Flooded, saturated or poorly drained soils are frequently anaerobic, leading to dissolution of the strongly magnetic minerals, magnetite and maghemite, and a corresponding decrease in soil magnetic susceptibility (MS). In this study of five temperate deciduous forests in east-central Illinois, USA, mean surface soil MS was significantly higher adjacent to upland tree species (31 ?? 10-5 SI) than adjacent to floodplain or lowland tree species (17 ?? 10-5 SI), when comparing regional soils with similar parent material of loessal silt. Although the sites differ in average soil MS for each tree species, the relative order of soil MS means for associated tree species at different locations is similar. Lowland tree species, Celtis occidentalis L., Ulmus americana L., Acer saccharinum L., Carya laciniosa (Michx. f.) Loud., and Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh. were associated with the lowest measured soil MS mean values overall and at each site. Tree species' flood tolerance rankings increased significantly, as soil MS values declined, the published rankings having significant correlations with soil MS values for the same species groups. The three published classifications of tree species' flood tolerance were significantly correlated with associated soil MS values at all sites, but most strongly at Allerton Park, the site with the widest range of soil drainage classes and MS values. Using soil MS measurements in forests with soil parent material containing similar initial levels of strongly magnetic minerals can provide a simple, rapid and quantitative method to classify soils according to hydric regimes, including dry conditions, and associated plant composition. Soil MS values thus have the capacity to quantify the continuum of hydric tolerances of tree species and guide tree species selection for reforestation. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

    2015-01-01

    For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

  5. The history of research into improved confinement regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, F.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing the pressure by additional heating of magnetically confined plasmas had the consequence that turbulent processes became more violent and plasma confinement degraded. Since this experience from the early 1980ies, fusion research was dominated by the search for confinement regimes with improved properties. It was a gratifying experience that toroidally confined plasmas are able to self-organise in such a way that turbulence diminishes, resulting in a confinement with good prospects to reach the objectives of fusion R&D. The understanding of improved confinement regimes revolutionized the understanding of turbulent transport in high-temperature plasmas. In this paper the story of research into improved confinement regimes will be narrated starting with 1980.

  6. Suspended-sediment concentration regimes in Tennessee biological reference streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Diehl, Timothy H.; Wolfe, William J.

    2010-01-01

    Suspended-sediment-concentration (SSC) regimes of five biological reference streams in Tennessee were characterized from 15-minute SSC records spanning 1 to 4 water years (October 1 through September 30) between 2004 and 2008. These streams represent least disturbed conditions for their respective ecoregions and have exceptional biodiversity in terms of fish or aquatic invertebrates. SSC regimes in streams, when plotted in terms of duration above a given SSC at a given annual frequency such as the annual maximum or the annual tenth longest duration, can be compared directly to published biological impairment thresholds derived from experimental trials. Based on such comparison, the SSC regimes of all five reference streams reached published impairment thresholds at least 10 times per water year for all years of record. The results suggest that the published impairment thresholds are not directly applicable to streams in Tennessee and, by extension, the southeastern United States.

  7. Two-phase flow regime map predictions under microgravity

    SciTech Connect

    Karri, S.B.R.; Mathur, V.K.

    1988-01-01

    In this paper, the widely used models of Taitel-Dukler and Weisman et al. are extrapolated to microgravity levels to compare predicted flow pattern boundaries for horizontal and vertical flows. Efforts have been made to analyze how the two-phase flow models available in the literature predict flow regime transitions in microgravity. The models of Taitel-Dukler and Weisman et al. have been found to be more suitable for extrapolation to a wide range of system parameters than the other two-phase flow regime maps available in the literature. The original criteria for all cases are used to predict the transition lines, except for the transition to dispersed flow regime in case of the Weisman model for horizontal flow. The constant 0.97 on the righthand side of this correlation should be two times that value, i.e., 1.94, in order to match this transition line in their original paper.

  8. Adaptive management of ecosystem services across different land use regimes.

    PubMed

    Ruhl, J B

    2016-12-01

    Using adaptive management to manage desired flows of ecosystem services may seem on the surface to be a good fit, but many social, economic, environmental, legal, and political factors influence how good a fit. One strongly influential factor is the land use regime within which the profile of ecosystem services is being managed. Shaped largely by legal mandates, market forces, and social and cultural practices, different land use regimes present different opportunities for and constraints on goals for ecosystem services and pose different decision making environments. Even where all other conditions appear amenable to using adaptive management, therefore, it is essential to consider the constraining (or liberating) effects of different land use regimes when deciding whether to adopt adaptive management to achieve those goals and, if so, how to implement it.

  9. Hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms in an inertial regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Gaojin; Ostace, Anca; Ardekani, Arezoo M.

    2016-11-01

    We numerically investigate the hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms at small to intermediate Reynolds number regimes, i.e., Re˜O (0.1 -100 ) , where inertial effects are important. The hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms in this regime is significantly different from the Stokes regime for microorganisms, as well as the high Reynolds number flows for fish and birds, which involves strong flow separation and detached vortex structures. Using an archetypal swimmer model, called a "squirmer," we find that the inertial effects change the contact time and dispersion dynamics of a pair of pusher swimmers, and trigger hydrodynamic attraction for two pullers. These results are potentially important in investigating predator-prey interactions, sexual reproduction, and the encounter rate of marine organisms such as copepods, ctenophora, and larvae.

  10. Supercurrent in the quantum Hall regime, part II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Amet, Francois; Ke, Chung Ting; Borzenets, Ivan; Wang, Jiyingmei; Watanabe, Kenji; Taniguchi, Takashi; Deacon, Russel; Yamamoto, Michihisa; Bomze, Yuriy; Tarucha, Seigo; Finkelstein, Gleb

    A novel promising route for creating topological states and excitations is to combine superconductivity and the quantum Hall effect. Despite this potential, signatures of superconductivity in the quantum Hall regime remain scarce, and a superconducting current through a Landau-quantized two-dimensional electron gas has so far eluded experimental observation. High-mobility graphene/BN heterostructures exhibit the quantum Hall effect at relatively low field and are therefore particularly suitable to study the fate of the Josephson effect in that regime. Here, we report the observation of a superconducting current through graphene at fields as high as 2 Tesla. In that regime, the normal-state resistance is quantized but pockets of superconductivity still persist at small current bias. We will describe their bias and temperature dependence. Magnetic field interference patterns in the supercurrent inform on possible mechanisms mediating this supercurrent.

  11. Theoretical study of the crossover into hydrodynamic regime in graphene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Derek; Yudhistira, Indra; Hu, Ben Yu-Kuang; Adam, Shaffique

    Experiments on graphene have recently succeeded in entering the hydrodynamic regime, as demonstrated by successful observations of strong violation of Wiedemann-Franz law, the Gurzhi effect and electronic Poiseuille flow. It is known that electronic systems enter the hydrodynamic regime when electron-electron scattering dominates over electron-impurity and electron-phonon scattering. However, a quantitative study of this transition from the Fermi liquid to hydrodynamic regime is still lacking. In view of this, we quantitatively analyze the electron-electron, electron-impurity and electron-phonon scattering rates as a function of temperature, charge doping and disorder (charge puddle) strength. This yields a quantitative understanding of the onset of hydrodynamic electronic behavior in graphene samples. This work is supported by the National Research Foundation of Singapore under its Fellowship program (NRF-NRFF2012-01) and by the Singapore Ministry of Education and Yale-NUS College through Grant No. R-607-265-01312.

  12. Living dangerously on borrowed time during slow, unrecognized regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Linares, Cristina; Dakos, Vasilis; van de Leemput, Ingrid A; van Nes, Egbert H

    2013-03-01

    Regime shifts from one ecological state to another are often portrayed as sudden, dramatic, and difficult to reverse. Yet many regime shifts unfold slowly and imperceptibly after a tipping point has been exceeded, especially at regional and global scales. These long, smooth transitions between equilibrium states are easy to miss, ignore, or deny, confounding management and governance. However, slow responses by ecosystems after transgressing a dangerous threshold also affords borrowed time - a window of opportunity to return to safer conditions before the new state eventually locks in and equilibrates. In this context, the most important challenge is a social one: convincing enough people to confront business-as-usual before time runs out to reverse unwanted regime shifts even after they have already begun.

  13. Hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms in an inertial regime.

    PubMed

    Li, Gaojin; Ostace, Anca; Ardekani, Arezoo M

    2016-11-01

    We numerically investigate the hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms at small to intermediate Reynolds number regimes, i.e., Re∼O(0.1-100), where inertial effects are important. The hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms in this regime is significantly different from the Stokes regime for microorganisms, as well as the high Reynolds number flows for fish and birds, which involves strong flow separation and detached vortex structures. Using an archetypal swimmer model, called a "squirmer," we find that the inertial effects change the contact time and dispersion dynamics of a pair of pusher swimmers, and trigger hydrodynamic attraction for two pullers. These results are potentially important in investigating predator-prey interactions, sexual reproduction, and the encounter rate of marine organisms such as copepods, ctenophora, and larvae.

  14. Statistics without Tears: Complex Statistics with Simple Arithmetic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Brian

    2011-01-01

    One of the often overlooked aspects of modern statistics is the analysis of time series data. Modern introductory statistics courses tend to rush to probabilistic applications involving risk and confidence. Rarely does the first level course linger on such useful and fascinating topics as time series decomposition, with its practical applications…

  15. SOCR: Statistics Online Computational Resource

    PubMed Central

    Dinov, Ivo D.

    2011-01-01

    The need for hands-on computer laboratory experience in undergraduate and graduate statistics education has been firmly established in the past decade. As a result a number of attempts have been undertaken to develop novel approaches for problem-driven statistical thinking, data analysis and result interpretation. In this paper we describe an integrated educational web-based framework for: interactive distribution modeling, virtual online probability experimentation, statistical data analysis, visualization and integration. Following years of experience in statistical teaching at all college levels using established licensed statistical software packages, like STATA, S-PLUS, R, SPSS, SAS, Systat, etc., we have attempted to engineer a new statistics education environment, the Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR). This resource performs many of the standard types of statistical analysis, much like other classical tools. In addition, it is designed in a plug-in object-oriented architecture and is completely platform independent, web-based, interactive, extensible and secure. Over the past 4 years we have tested, fine-tuned and reanalyzed the SOCR framework in many of our undergraduate and graduate probability and statistics courses and have evidence that SOCR resources build student’s intuition and enhance their learning. PMID:21451741

  16. Defining the ecological hydrology of Taiwan Rivers using multivariate statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2009-09-01

    SummaryThe identification and verification of ecohydrologic flow indicators has found new support as the importance of ecological flow regimes is recognized in modern water resources management, particularly in river restoration and reservoir management. An ecohydrologic indicator system reflecting the unique characteristics of Taiwan's water resources and hydrology has been developed, the Taiwan ecohydrological indicator system (TEIS). A major challenge for the water resources community is using the TEIS to provide environmental flow rules that improve existing water resources management. This paper examines data from the extensive network of flow monitoring stations in Taiwan using TEIS statistics to define and refine environmental flow options in Taiwan. Multivariate statistical methods were used to examine TEIS statistics for 102 stations representing the geographic and land use diversity of Taiwan. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed high multicollinearity between the TEIS statistics. Watersheds were separated into upper and lower-watershed locations. An analysis of variance indicated significant differences between upstream, more natural, and downstream, more developed, locations in the same basin with hydrologic indicator redundancy in flow change and magnitude statistics. Issues of multicollinearity were examined using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the first three components related to general flow and high/low flow statistics, frequency and time statistics, and quantity statistics. These principle components would explain about 85% of the total variation. A major conclusion is that managers must be aware of differences among basins, as well as differences within basins that will require careful selection of management procedures to achieve needed flow regimes.

  17. The Self-energy Of Growing Aggregates: "Strength Regime"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimaraes, Ana H. F.; Spahn, F.; Seiss, M.; Brilliantov, N. V.

    2009-09-01

    The vivid appearance of the outer regions of Saturn's rings points to a balance of ongoing fragmentation and coagulation processes. This idea finds support especially in the F-ring, where collisional processes occur on an almost daily basis stirred by perturbations of the satellites Prometheus and Pandora, and in addition due the presence of putative moonlets. In order to quantify this balance in a kinetic theory we propose to calculate the resistivity of small agglomerates ("dynamic ephemeral bodies") against rupture due collisional processes and tidal pull. Earlies studies have shown that the resistivity of an aggregate is divided into two phases: "strength regime" and "gravitational regime". Early in their formation, small agglomerates are supported basically by their "glue" between the particles (adhesion) - "strength regime". For larger agglomerates the "gravitational regime" takes over provided their sizes to be bigger than a threshold in which the self-gravitational energy exceeds the adhesive binding energy, in this case the cluster's constituents are held together gravitationally. We calculated the self-energy caused by adhesion and gravity of ring's aggregates which has been considered as the threshold of impact energy or of tidal work to disrupt the agglomerate. Using a Ballistic Particle Cluster Aggregate Model (BPCA) we varied the densities of the aggregates and the size distribution of their constituents (1-10cm), calculated their self-energy and identified the transition between the "strength" to "gravitational regime". The transition between the regimes occurs at house-size aggregates (diameter of approximately 20m), a fact, that fits to the cut-off on the dense rings' main population (cm - 5m in size). Acknowledgments: A.H.F.G. thanks Dr. E. Vieira-Neto for the discussions, and also the DAAD and Uni-Potsdam for the financial support of this project.

  18. The Isolated Bubble Regime in Pool Nucleate Boiling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buyevich, Y. A.; Webbon, Bruce W.; Callaway, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    We consider an isolated bubble boiling regime in which vapour bubbles are intermittently produced at a prearranged set of nucleation site on an upward facing overheated wall plane. In this boiling regime, the bubbles depart from the wall and move as separate entities. Except in the matter of rise velocity, the bubbles do not interfere and are independent of one another. However, the rise velocity is dependent on bubble volume concentration in the bulk. Heat transfer properties specific to this regime cannot be described without bubble detachment size, and we apply our previously developed dynamic theory of vapour bubble growth and detachment to determine this size. Bubble growth is presumed to be thermally controlled. Two limiting cases of bubble evolution are considered: the one in which buoyancy prevails in promoting bubble detachment and the one in which surface tension prevails. We prove termination of the isolated regime of pool nucleate boiling to result from one of the four possible causes, depending on relevant parameters values. The first cause consists in the fact that the upward flow of rising bubbles hampers the downward liquid flow, and under certain conditions, prevents the liquid from coming to the wall in an amount that would be sufficient to compensate for vapour removal from the wall. The second cause is due to the lateral coalescence of growing bubbles that are attached to their corresponding nucleation sites, with ensuing generation of larger bubbles and extended vapour patches near the wall. The other two causes involve longitudinal coalescence either 1) immediately in the wall vicinity, accompanied by the establishment of the multiple bubble boiling regime, or 2) in the bulk, with the formation of vapour columns. The longitudinal coalescence in the bulk is shown to be the most important cause. The critical wall temperature and the heat flux density associated with isolated bubble regime termination are found to be functions of the physical and

  19. The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

    2016-12-01

    Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention.

  20. Terahertz Quantum Plasmonics of Nanoslot Antennas in Nonlinear Regime.

    PubMed

    Kim, Joon-Yeon; Kang, Bong Joo; Park, Joohyun; Bahk, Young-Mi; Kim, Won Tae; Rhie, Jiyeah; Jeon, Hyeongtag; Rotermund, Fabian; Kim, Dai-Sik

    2015-10-14

    Quantum tunneling in plasmonic nanostructures has presented an interesting aspect of incorporating quantum mechanics into classical optics. However, the study has been limited to the subnanometer gap regime. Here, we newly extend quantum plasmonics to gap widths well over 1 nm by taking advantage of the low-frequency terahertz regime. Enhanced electric fields of up to 5 V/nm induce tunneling of electrons in different arrays of ring-shaped nanoslot antennas of gap widths from 1.5 to 10 nm, which lead to a significant nonlinear transmission decrease. These observations are consistent with theoretical calculations considering terahertz-funneling-induced electron tunneling across the gap.

  1. Thermal regime of ventilation shafts and its regulation

    SciTech Connect

    Petrov, N.N.; Timoshenko, N.I.

    1986-03-01

    This paper evaluates the regime of air flow through a ventilation shaft and the nondimensional heat-exchange criteria. It is shown that the air temperature in the shaft is affected more by the walls than by the reinforcement structure metal and that the heat released by internal combustion engines could be an alternative source for heating the air. High bypass aircraft turbojet engines decommissioned after their maximum surface life on planes could be used for this purpose. The study of the thermal regime in the shaft in the case of a sudden change of air temperature such as occurs during ventilation reversals has established the requirements for air heating equipment.

  2. Geothermal regimes at Clearlake California: A preliminary review

    SciTech Connect

    Burns, K.L.; Potter, R.M.; Zyvoloski, G.

    1992-08-01

    Three distinct geothermal regimes are inferred in the vicinity of the city of Clearlake, California. The first is a conductive heat flow regime, the second is a fault-controlled hot spring flow of ``magmatic`` fluids, and the third is a resurgent flow of meteoric warm water. The conductive heat flow results in flat, horizontal isotherms. The hot spring generates a localized spike in the isotherms. The advective disturbance carries heat laterally to a fault-line resurgence, lowering the apparent heat flow at the surface.

  3. Champagne experiences various rhythmical bubbling regimes in a flute.

    PubMed

    Liger-Belair, Gérard; Tufaile, Alberto; Jeandet, Philippe; Sartorelli, José-Carlos

    2006-09-20

    Bubble trains are seen rising gracefully from a few points on the glass wall (called nucleation sites) whenever champagne is poured into a glass. As time passes during the gas-discharging process, the careful observation of some given bubble columns reveals that the interbubble distance may change suddenly, thus revealing different rhythmical bubbling regimes. Here, it is reported that the transitions between the different bubbling regimes of some nucleation sites during gas discharging is a process which may be ruled by a strong interaction between tiny gas pockets trapped inside the nucleation site and/or also by an interaction between the tiny bubbles just blown from the nucleation site.

  4. Strong and moderate nonlinear El Niño regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Ken; Dewitte, Boris

    2016-03-01

    It has been previously proposed that two El Niño (EN) regimes, strong and moderate, exist but the historical observational record is too short to establish this conclusively. Here, 1200 years of simulations with the GFDL CM2.1 model allowed us to demonstrate their existence in this model and, by showing that the relevant dynamics are also evident in observations, we present a stronger case for their existence in nature. In CM2.1, the robust bimodal probability distribution of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) indices during EN peaks provides evidence for the existence of the regimes, which is also supported by a cluster analysis of these same indices. The observations agree with this distribution, with the EN of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 corresponding to the strong EN regime and all the other observed EN to the moderate regime. The temporal evolution of various indices during the observed strong EN agrees very well with the events in CM2.1, providing further validation of this model as a proxy for nature. The two regimes differ strongly in the magnitude of the eastern Pacific warming but not much in the central Pacific. Observations and model agree in the existence of a finite positive threshold in the SST anomaly above which the zonal wind response to warming is strongly enhanced. Such nonlinearity in the Bjerknes feedback, which increases the growth rate of EN events if they reach sufficiently large amplitude, is very likely the essential mechanism that gives rise to the existence of the two EN regimes. Oceanic nonlinear advection does not appear essential for the onset of strong EN. The threshold nonlinearity could make the EN regimes very sensitive to stochastic forcing. Observations and model agree that the westerly wind stress anomaly in the central equatorial Pacific in late boreal summer has a substantial role determining the EN regime in the following winter and it is suggested that a stochastic component at this time was key for the

  5. Ocean Wave Energy Regimes of the Circumpolar Coastal Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkinson, D. E.

    2004-12-01

    Ocean wave activity is a major enviromental forcing agent of the ice-rich sediments that comprise large sections of the arctic coastal margins. While it is instructive to possess information about the wind regimes in these regions, direct application to geomorphological and engineering needs requires knowledge of the resultant wave-energy regimes. Wave energy information has been calculated at the regional scale using adjusted reanalysis model windfield data. Calculations at this scale are not designed to account for local-scale coastline/bathymetric irregularities and variability. Results will be presented for the circumpolar zones specified by the Arctic Coastal Dynamics Project.

  6. Orbital magnetoconductance in the variable-range-hopping regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sivan, U.; Entin-Wohlman, O.; Imry, Y.

    1988-01-01

    The orbital magnetoconductance (MC) in the variable-range-hopping (VRH) regime is evaluated by use of a model which approximately takes into account the interference among random paths in the hopping process. Instead of logarithmic averaging the MC is obtained by the critical percolating resistor method. The small-field MC is quadratic in H; it is positive deep in the VRH regime and changes sign when the zero-field conductivity is high enough. This behavior (except for the sign change) and the relevant magnetic field scale are in agreement with recent experiments. The calculated MC is always positive for strong fields and is predicted to saturate at sufficiently large fields.

  7. Investigating Decadal Trends in Precipitation and Evapotranspiration in Two Contrasting Hydrological Regimes in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alemu, H.; Senay, G. B.; Velpuri, N.; Angerer, J.

    2012-12-01

    Investigating persistent trends in rainfall and evapotranspiration (ET) is important in understanding the dynamics of hydrological regimes. However, information on such trends in key components of the hydrologic cycle is not well understood largely due to unavailability of in-situ data. Capturing persistent trends using different statistical methods from spatially-explicit time-series data is now possible using globally available satellite- and model-assimilated gridded climate data. In this study, time-series monthly satellite based rainfall estimates (RFE) produced by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and ET data modeled using the operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) algorithm are used for two geographically and hydrologically contrasting regions in Africa - Mali in west Africa, and the Nile Basin in northeast Africa for the period between 2001-2010. The seasonal Mann-Kendall statistical trend test is used to identify statistically significant (p<0.01) changes in the two hydrological components. The analysis resulted in a spatially explicit: (a) 0.1-degree spatial resolution decadal trend map with statistically significant increase/ decrease in rainfall and, (b) 1-km spatial resolution decadal trend with statistically significant increases/ decreases in ET. Visual inspection of the trend maps reveals the spatial variability of the trends in both variables. Additionally, we modeled the water levels of selected waterholes for the same period. We present the relationship between the trends in hydrological parameters and the waterhole levels on the ground by examining the spatial variability of ET and rainfall in the trend maps with the decadal dynamics of water levels in the small waterholes.

  8. Non-Markovian full counting statistics in quantum dot molecules

    PubMed Central

    Xue, Hai-Bin; Jiao, Hu-Jun; Liang, Jiu-Qing; Liu, Wu-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Full counting statistics of electron transport is a powerful diagnostic tool for probing the nature of quantum transport beyond what is obtainable from the average current or conductance measurement alone. In particular, the non-Markovian dynamics of quantum dot molecule plays an important role in the nonequilibrium electron tunneling processes. It is thus necessary to understand the non-Markovian full counting statistics in a quantum dot molecule. Here we study the non-Markovian full counting statistics in two typical quantum dot molecules, namely, serially coupled and side-coupled double quantum dots with high quantum coherence in a certain parameter regime. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian effect manifests itself through the quantum coherence of the quantum dot molecule system, and has a significant impact on the full counting statistics in the high quantum-coherent quantum dot molecule system, which depends on the coupling of the quantum dot molecule system with the source and drain electrodes. The results indicated that the influence of the non-Markovian effect on the full counting statistics of electron transport, which should be considered in a high quantum-coherent quantum dot molecule system, can provide a better understanding of electron transport through quantum dot molecules. PMID:25752245

  9. On statistical equilibrium in helical fluid flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurgansky, M. V.

    2006-06-01

    The statistical mechanics of 3-D helical flows is re-examined for a continuum truncated at a top wavenumber. Based on the principle of equipartition of the flow enstrophy between helical modes, the emerging (i) energy spectrum law "-2" and (ii) formal mathematical analogy between the helicity and the thermodynamic entropy are discussed. It is noted that the "-2" scaling law is consistent with both spectral equilibrium and spectral cascade paradigms. In an attempt to apply the obtained results to a turbulent flow regime within the Earth's outer liquid core, where the net helicity of a turbulent flow component is presumably explained by Earth's rotation, it has been noticed that it is the energy spectral law "-1", but not "-2", which is likely realized there and within the logarithmic accuracy corresponds to the case of the velocity structure function [u(l)]2 independency on the spatial scale l, the latter is consistent with observations. It is argued that the "-1" scaling law can also be interpreted in terms of the spectral equilibrium and it is emphasized that the causes of the likely dominance of the spectral law "-1" over the spectral law "-2" in this geophysical application deserve further investigation and clarification.

  10. Magnetic Field Statistics in Saturn's Magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guio, P.; Achilleos, N.; Santolik, O.; Masters, A.; Arridge, C.

    2012-04-01

    We present a statistical study of the fluctuations of the magnetic field for different regions of Saturn's magnetosphere as measured by the magnetometer instrument (MAG) on board the Cassini spacecraft. The magnetometer data, for a set of illustrative orbits during the prime mission, are used to construct probability distribution functions (PDFs) of magnetic fluctuations, in both the field-aligned and perpendicular directions. This technique is often used to look for intermittent plasma turbulence and non-self-similar properties in the fluctuations. Here we investigate the possibility to successfully characterise a region and/or regime of the magnetosphere in the signature of these PDFs. We construct PDFs from first principles, and we also consolidate our analysis by using an on-line data analysis tool ``Demonstrator for Multi-dimensional Spectral Analysis of Electromagnetic Fields'' developed under the Europlanet Joint Research Activity 3. We determine polarisation and propagation properties of the observed fluctuations as a function of frequency. We also comment on the applicability of these methods to identifying different characteristic frequencies and directions of boundary waves, such as Kelvin-Helmholtz disturbances.

  11. Magnetic Field Statistics in Saturn's Magnetosphere

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guio, P.; Achilleos, N. A.; Santolik, O.; Masters, A.; Arridge, C. S.

    2011-12-01

    We present a statistical study of the fluctuations of the magnetic field for different regions of Saturn's magnetosphere as measured by the magnetometer instrument (MAG) on board the Cassini spacecraft. The magnetometer data, for a set of illustrative orbits during the prime mission, are used to construct probability distribution functions (PDFs) of magnetic fluctuations, in both the field-aligned and perpendicular directions. This technique is often used to look for intermittent plasma turbulence and non-self-similar properties in the fluctuations. Here we investigate the possibility to successfully characterise a region and/or regime of the magnetosphere in the signature of these PDFs. We construct PDFs from first principles, and we also consolidate our analysis by using an on line data analysis tool "Demonstrator for Multi-dimensional Spectral Analysis of Electromagnetic Fields" developed under the Europlanet Joint Research Activity 3. We determine polarisation and propagation properties of the observed fluctuations as a function of frequency. We also comment on the applicability of these methods to identifying different characteristic frequencies and directions of boundary waves, such as Kelvin-Helmholtz disturbances.

  12. Climatic and land cover influences on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Holocene boreal fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Barrett, Carolyn M; Kelly, Ryan; Higuera, Philip E; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2013-02-01

    Although recent climatic warming has markedly increased fire activity in many biomes, this trend is spatially heterogeneous. Understanding the patterns and controls of this heterogeneity is important for anticipating future fire regime shifts at regional scales and for developing land management policies. To assess climatic and land cover controls on boreal forest fire regimes, we conducted macroscopic-charcoal analysis of sediment cores and GIS analysis of landscape variation in south-central Alaska, USA. Results reveal that fire occurrence was highly variable both spatially and temporally over the past seven millennia. At two of four sites, the lack of distinct charcoal peaks throughout much of this period suggests the absence of large local fires, attributed to abundant water bodies in the surrounding landscape that have likely functioned as firebreaks to limit fire spread. In contrast, distinct charcoal peaks suggest numerous local fires at the other two sites where water bodies are less abundant. In periods of the records where robust charcoal peaks allow identification of local-fire events over the past 7000 years, mean fire return intervals varied widely with a range of 138-453 years. Furthermore, the temporal trajectories of local-fire frequency differed greatly among sites and were statistically independent. Inferred biomass burning and mean summer temperature in the region were not significantly correlated prior to 3000 years ago but became positively related subsequently with varying correlation strengths. Climatic variability associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, along with the expansion of flammable Picea mariana forests, probably have heightened the sensitivity of forest burning to summer temperature variations over the past three millennia. These results elucidate the patterns and controls of boreal fire regime dynamics over a broad range of spatiotemporal scales, and they imply that anthropogenic climatic warming and

  13. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  14. Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Alan K; Hoover, David L; Wilcox, Kevin R; Avolio, Meghan L; Koerner, Sally E; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Loik, Michael E; Luo, Yiqi; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D

    2015-02-03

    Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences.

  15. Recent Trends in the Regime of Extreme Rainfall in the West African Sahel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lebel, T.; Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Quantin, G.

    2015-12-01

    West Africa is known for having experienced an extreme drought starting at the end of the 1960s that is recognized to be the greatest climatic signal at regional scale since the beginning of meteorological measurements. Despite a moderate recovery of the annual precipitations since the 1990s in the Central and Eastern Sahel, rainfall over the last two decades remains lower by 15% than during the period 1950-1970. Paradoxically these persisting dry conditions have been accompanied by a dramatic increase of flood fatalities especially over the recent 10 years. Using a homogeneous dataset of 41 daily rainfall series covering the period 1950-2010, an integrated regional approach based on the statistical extreme value theory was then used to reduce the local sampling effects and to provide robust estimates of intense rainfall distributions to be analyzed in conjunction with the annual rainfall series. This led to identify some key rainfall regime characteristics related to the decadal scale rainfall variability over the region. The main factor of the rainfall deficit during the great 1970-2000 drought was a lower occurrence of rainy days, extreme rainy days being the most affected. Over the last ten years, the Sahelian rainfall regime is characterized by a lasting deficit of the number of rainy days, while at the same time the extreme rainfall occurrence is on the rise. As a consequence the proportion of annual rainfall associated with extreme rainfall has increased from 17% in the 1970-1990 years to 19% in the 1991-2000 years and to 22% in the 2001-2010 years. This tends to support the idea that a more extreme climate has been observed over the last 10 years, with a persisting deficit of the occurrence of rainfall associated with an increase of the occurrence of extreme daily rainfall. Our results also suggest that the intensification of the precipitation regime has likely contributed to the aggravation of the hydrological risks in the Sahel.

  16. Uncondensed atoms in the regime of velocity-selective coherent population trapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Il'ichov, L. V.; Tomilin, V. A.

    2016-01-01

    We consider the model of a Bose condensate in the regime of velocity-selective coherent population trapping. As a result of interaction between particles, some fraction of atoms is outside the condensate, remaining in the coherent trapping state. These atoms are involved in brief events of intense interaction with external resonant electromagnetic fields. Intense induced and spontaneous transitions are accompanied by the exchange of momenta between atoms and radiation, which is manifested as migration of atoms in the velocity space. The rate of such migration is calculated. A nonlinear kinetic equation for the many-particle statistical operator for uncondensed atoms is derived under the assumption that correlations of atoms with different momenta are insignificant. The structure of its steady-state solution leads to certain conclusions about the above-mentioned migration pattern taking the Bose statistics into consideration. With allowance for statistical effects, we derive nonlinear integral equations for frequencies controlling the migration. The results of numerical solution of these equations are represented in the weak interatomic interaction approximation.

  17. Circular Bessel statistics: derivation and application to wave propagation in random media.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yulu; Newman, Jason A; Webb, Kevin J

    2014-12-01

    We present a family of circular Bessel probability density functions that are capable of describing the intensity, amplitude, and field statistics of waves in any random medium, with only the assumption of circularity. The well-known zero-mean circular Gaussian statistics break down in the Anderson localization and the weakly scattering regimes, where the field can no longer be regarded as the sum of a multitude of independent random phasors. We find that in such scenarios circular Bessel statistics apply because the field can be modeled as a random phasor sum with a random number of contributing phasors. The validity of our density functions is verified through numerical simulations of electromagnetic waves propagating in 2D random media. Having a set of density functions that work in all scattering regimes provides a framework for modeling wave propagation in random media, facilitating random media characterization, imaging in and through scatter, and random laser design.

  18. Education Statistics Quarterly, Fall 2000.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dillow, Sally, Ed.

    2000-01-01

    The "Education Statistics Quarterly" gives a comprehensive overview of work done across all parts of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Each issue contains short publications, summaries, and descriptions that cover all NCES publications and data products released during a 3-month period. Each message also contains a…

  19. Zemstvo Statistics on Public Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramov, V. F.

    1997-01-01

    Surveys the general organizational principles and forms of keeping the zemstvo (regional) statistics on Russian public education. Conveys that they were subdivided into three types: (1) the current statistics that continuously monitored schools; (2) basic surveys that provided a comprehensive characterization of a given territory's public…

  20. Representational Versatility in Learning Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Graham, Alan T.; Thomas, Michael O. J.

    2005-01-01

    Statistical data can be represented in a number of qualitatively different ways, the choice depending on the following three conditions: the concepts to be investigated; the nature of the data; and the purpose for which they were collected. This paper begins by setting out frameworks that describe the nature of statistical thinking in schools, and…