Sample records for statistical multifragmentation regime

  1. WIX: statistical nuclear multifragmentation with collective expansion and Coulomb forces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randrup, J.∅rgen

    1993-10-01

    By suitable augmentation of the event generator FREESCO, a code WIX has been constructed with which it is possible to simulate the statistical multifragmentation of a specified nuclear source, which may be both hollow and deformed, in the presence of a collective expansion and with the interfragment Coulomb forces included.

  2. The statistical multifragmentation model: Origins and recent advances

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Donangelo, R., E-mail: donangel@fing.edu.uy; Instituto de Física, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, C.P. 68528, 21941-972 Rio de Janeiro - RJ; Souza, S. R., E-mail: srsouza@if.ufrj.br

    2016-07-07

    We review the Statistical Multifragmentation Model (SMM) which considers a generalization of the liquid-drop model for hot nuclei and allows one to calculate thermodynamic quantities characterizing the nuclear ensemble at the disassembly stage. We show how to determine probabilities of definite partitions of finite nuclei and how to determine, through Monte Carlo calculations, observables such as the caloric curve, multiplicity distributions, heat capacity, among others. Some experimental measurements of the caloric curve confirmed the SMM predictions of over 10 years before, leading to a surge in the interest in the model. However, the experimental determination of the fragmentation temperatures reliesmore » on the yields of different isotopic species, which were not correctly calculated in the schematic, liquid-drop picture, employed in the SMM. This led to a series of improvements in the SMM, in particular to the more careful choice of nuclear masses and energy densities, specially for the lighter nuclei. With these improvements the SMM is able to make quantitative determinations of isotope production. We show the application of SMM to the production of exotic nuclei through multifragmentation. These preliminary calculations demonstrate the need for a careful choice of the system size and excitation energy to attain maximum yields.« less

  3. The statistical multifragmentation model: Origins and recent advances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Donangelo, R.; Souza, S. R.

    2016-07-01

    We review the Statistical Multifragmentation Model (SMM) which considers a generalization of the liquid-drop model for hot nuclei and allows one to calculate thermodynamic quantities characterizing the nuclear ensemble at the disassembly stage. We show how to determine probabilities of definite partitions of finite nuclei and how to determine, through Monte Carlo calculations, observables such as the caloric curve, multiplicity distributions, heat capacity, among others. Some experimental measurements of the caloric curve confirmed the SMM predictions of over 10 years before, leading to a surge in the interest in the model. However, the experimental determination of the fragmentation temperatures relies on the yields of different isotopic species, which were not correctly calculated in the schematic, liquid-drop picture, employed in the SMM. This led to a series of improvements in the SMM, in particular to the more careful choice of nuclear masses and energy densities, specially for the lighter nuclei. With these improvements the SMM is able to make quantitative determinations of isotope production. We show the application of SMM to the production of exotic nuclei through multifragmentation. These preliminary calculations demonstrate the need for a careful choice of the system size and excitation energy to attain maximum yields.

  4. Statistical analysis of experimental multifragmentation events in 64Zn+112Sn at 40 MeV/nucleon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, W.; Zheng, H.; Ren, P.; Liu, X.; Huang, M.; Wada, R.; Chen, Z.; Wang, J.; Xiao, G. Q.; Qu, G.

    2018-04-01

    A statistical multifragmentation model (SMM) is applied to the experimentally observed multifragmentation events in an intermediate heavy-ion reaction. Using the temperature and symmetry energy extracted from the isobaric yield ratio (IYR) method based on the modified Fisher model (MFM), SMM is applied to the reaction 64Zn+112Sn at 40 MeV/nucleon. The experimental isotope distribution and mass distribution of the primary reconstructed fragments are compared without afterburner and they are well reproduced. The extracted temperature T and symmetry energy coefficient asym from SMM simulated events, using the IYR method, are also consistent with those from the experiment. These results strongly suggest that in the multifragmentation process there is a freezeout volume, in which the thermal and chemical equilibrium is established before or at the time of the intermediate-mass fragments emission.

  5. Analysis of multi-fragmentation reactions induced by relativistic heavy ions using the statistical multi-fragmentation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogawa, T.; Sato, T.; Hashimoto, S.; Niita, K.

    2013-09-01

    The fragmentation cross-sections of relativistic energy nucleus-nucleus collisions were analyzed using the statistical multi-fragmentation model (SMM) incorporated with the Monte-Carlo radiation transport simulation code particle and heavy ion transport code system (PHITS). Comparison with the literature data showed that PHITS-SMM reproduces fragmentation cross-sections of heavy nuclei at relativistic energies better than the original PHITS by up to two orders of magnitude. It was also found that SMM does not degrade the neutron production cross-sections in heavy ion collisions or the fragmentation cross-sections of light nuclei, for which SMM has not been benchmarked. Therefore, SMM is a robust model that can supplement conventional nucleus-nucleus reaction models, enabling more accurate prediction of fragmentation cross-sections.

  6. Sensitivity study of experimental measures for the nuclear liquid-gas phase transition in the statistical multifragmentation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, W.; Ren, P.; Zheng, H.; Liu, X.; Huang, M.; Wada, R.; Qu, G.

    2018-05-01

    The experimental measures of the multiplicity derivatives—the moment parameters, the bimodal parameter, the fluctuation of maximum fragment charge number (normalized variance of Zmax, or NVZ), the Fisher exponent (τ ), and the Zipf law parameter (ξ )—are examined to search for the liquid-gas phase transition in nuclear multifragmention processes within the framework of the statistical multifragmentation model (SMM). The sensitivities of these measures are studied. All these measures predict a critical signature at or near to the critical point both for the primary and secondary fragments. Among these measures, the total multiplicity derivative and the NVZ provide accurate measures for the critical point from the final cold fragments as well as the primary fragments. The present study will provide a guide for future experiments and analyses in the study of the nuclear liquid-gas phase transition.

  7. Incorporation of the statistical multi-fragmentation model in PHITS and its application for simulation of fragmentation by heavy ions and protons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogawa, Tatsuhiko; Sato, Tatsuhiko; Hashimoto, Shintaro; Niita, Koji

    2014-06-01

    The fragmentation reactions of relativistic-energy nucleus-nucleus and proton-nucleus collisions were simulated using the Statistical Multi-fragmentation Model (SMM) incorporated with the Particle and Heavy Ion Transport code System (PHITS). The comparisons of calculated cross-sections with literature data showed that PHITS-SMM predicts the fragmentation cross-sections of heavy nuclei up to two orders of magnitude more accurately than PHITS for heavy-ion-induced reactions. For proton-induced reactions, noticeable improvements are observed for interactions of the heavy target with protons at an energy greater than 1 GeV. Therefore, consideration for multi-fragmentation reactions is necessary for the accurate simulation of energetic fragmentation reactions of heavy nuclei.

  8. Delayed fission and multifragmentation in sub-keV C60 - Au(0 0 1) collisions via molecular dynamics simulations: Mass distributions and activated statistical decay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernstein, V.; Kolodney, E.

    2017-10-01

    We have recently observed, both experimentally and computationally, the phenomenon of postcollision multifragmentation in sub-keV surface collisions of a C60 projectile. Namely, delayed multiparticle breakup of a strongly impact deformed and vibrationally excited large cluster collider into several large fragments, after leaving the surface. Molecular dynamics simulations with extensive statistics revealed a nearly simultaneous event, within a sub-psec time window. Here we study, computationally, additional essential aspects of this new delayed collisional fragmentation which were not addressed before. Specifically, we study here the delayed (binary) fission channel for different impact energies both by calculating mass distributions over all fission events and by calculating and analyzing lifetime distributions of the scattered projectile. We observe an asymmetric fission resulting in a most probable fission channel and we find an activated exponential (statistical) decay. Finally, we also calculate and discuss the fragment mass distribution in (triple) multifragmentation over different time windows, in terms of most abundant fragments.

  9. Power law behavior of the isotope yield distributions in the multifragmentation regime of heavy ion reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, M.; Wada, R.; Chen, Z.; Keutgen, T.; Kowalski, S.; Hagel, K.; Barbui, M.; Bonasera, A.; Bottosso, C.; Materna, T.; Natowitz, J. B.; Qin, L.; Rodrigues, M. R. D.; Sahu, P. K.; Schmidt, K. J.; Wang, J.

    2010-11-01

    Isotope yield distributions in the multifragmentation regime were studied with high-quality isotope identification, focusing on the intermediate mass fragments (IMFs) produced in semiviolent collisions. The yields were analyzed within the framework of a modified Fisher model. Using the ratio of the mass-dependent symmetry energy coefficient relative to the temperature, asym/T, extracted in previous work and that of the pairing term, ap/T, extracted from this work, and assuming that both reflect secondary decay processes, the experimentally observed isotope yields were corrected for these effects. For a given I=N-Z value, the corrected yields of isotopes relative to the yield of C12 show a power law distribution Y(N,Z)/Y(12C)~A-τ in the mass range 1⩽A⩽30, and the distributions are almost identical for the different reactions studied. The observed power law distributions change systematically when I of the isotopes changes and the extracted τ value decreases from 3.9 to 1.0 as I increases from -1 to 3. These observations are well reproduced by a simple deexcitation model, with which the power law distribution of the primary isotopes is determined to be τprim=2.4±0.2, suggesting that the disassembling system at the time of the fragment formation is indeed at, or very near, the critical point.

  10. Angular distributions in multifragmentation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Stoenner, R.W.; Klobuchar, R.L.; Haustein, P.E.

    2006-04-15

    Angular distributions are reported for {sup 37}Ar and {sup 127}Xe from 381-GeV {sup 28}Si+Au interactions and for products between {sup 24}Na and {sup 149}Gd from 28-GeV {sup 1}H+Au. Sideward peaking and forward deficits for multifragmentation products are significantly enhanced for heavy ions compared with protons. Projectile kinetic energy does not appear to be a satisfactory scaling variable. The data are discussed in terms of a kinetic-focusing model in which sideward peaking is due to transverse motion of the excited product from the initial projectile-target interaction.

  11. Reaction mechanisms and multifragmentation processes in 64Zn+58Ni at 35A-79A MeV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wada, R.; Hagel, K.; Cibor, J.; Gonin, M.; Keutgen, Th.; Murray, M.; Natowitz, J. B.; Ono, A.; Steckmeyer, J. C.; Kerambrum, A.; Angélique, J. C.; Auger, A.; Bizard, G.; Brou, R.; Cabot, C.; Crema, E.; Cussol, D.; Durand, D.; El Masri, Y.; Eudes, P.; He, Z. Y.; Jeong, S. C.; Lebrun, C.; Patry, J. P.; Péghaire, A.; Peter, J.; Régimbart, R.; Rosato, E.; Saint-Laurent, F.; Tamain, B.; Vient, E.

    2000-09-01

    Reaction mechanisms and multifragmentation processes have been studied for 64Zn+58Ni collisions at intermediate energies with the help of antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD-V) model calculations. Experimental energy spectra, angular distributions, charge distributions, and isotope distributions, classified by their associated charged particle multiplicities, are compared with the results of the AMD-V calculations. In general the experimental results are reasonably well reproduced by the calculations. The multifragmentation observed experimentally at all incident energies is also reproduced by the AMD-V calculations. A detailed study of AMD-V events reveals that, in nucleon transport, the reaction shows some transparency, whereas in energy transport the reaction is much less transparent at all incident energies studied here. The transparency in the nucleon transport indicates that, even for central collisions, about 75% of the projectile nucleons appear in the forward direction. In energy transport about 80% of the initial kinetic energy of the projectile in the center- of-mass frame is dissipated. The detailed study of AMD-V events also elucidates the dynamics of the multifragmentation process. The study suggests that, at 35A MeV, the semitransparency and thermal expansion are the dominant mechanisms for the multifragmentation process, whereas at 49A MeV and higher incident energies a nuclear compression occurs at an early stage of the reaction and plays an important role in the multifragmentation process in addition to that of the thermal expansion and the semitransparency.

  12. Detector noise statistics in the non-linear regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shopbell, P. L.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.

    1992-01-01

    The statistical behavior of an idealized linear detector in the presence of threshold and saturation levels is examined. It is assumed that the noise is governed by the statistical fluctuations in the number of photons emitted by the source during an exposure. Since physical detectors cannot have infinite dynamic range, our model illustrates that all devices have non-linear regimes, particularly at high count rates. The primary effect is a decrease in the statistical variance about the mean signal due to a portion of the expected noise distribution being removed via clipping. Higher order statistical moments are also examined, in particular, skewness and kurtosis. In principle, the expected distortion in the detector noise characteristics can be calibrated using flatfield observations with count rates matched to the observations. For this purpose, some basic statistical methods that utilize Fourier analysis techniques are described.

  13. Dynamical and many-body correlation effects in the kinetic energy spectra of isotopes produced in nuclear multifragmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Souza, S. R.; Donangelo, R.; Lynch, W. G.; Tsang, M. B.

    2018-03-01

    The properties of the kinetic energy spectra of light isotopes produced in the breakup of a nuclear source and during the de-excitation of its products are examined. The initial stage, at which the hot fragments are created, is modeled by the statistical multifragmentation model, whereas the Weisskopf-Ewing evaporation treatment is adopted to describe the subsequent fragment de-excitation, as they follow their classical trajectories dictated by the Coulomb repulsion among them. The energy spectra obtained are compared to available experimental data. The influence of the fusion cross section entering into the evaporation treatment is investigated and its influence on the qualitative aspects of the energy spectra turns out to be small. Although these aspects can be fairly well described by the model, the underlying physics associated with the quantitative discrepancies remains to be understood.

  14. Effects of medium on nuclear properties in multifragmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De, J. N.; Samaddar, S. K.; Viñas, X.; Centelles, M.; Mishustin, I. N.; Greiner, W.

    2012-08-01

    In multifragmentation of hot nuclear matter, properties of fragments embedded in a soup of nucleonic gas and other fragments should be modified as compared with isolated nuclei. Such modifications are studied within a simple model where only nucleons and one kind of heavy nuclei are considered. The interaction between different species is described with a momentum-dependent two-body potential whose parameters are fitted to reproduce properties of cold isolated nuclei. The internal energy of heavy fragments is parametrized according to a liquid-drop model with density- and temperature-dependent parameters. Calculations are carried out for several subnuclear densities and moderate temperatures, for isospin-symmetric and asymmetric systems. We find that the fragments get stretched due to interactions with the medium and their binding energies decrease with increasing temperature and density of nuclear matter.

  15. Statistical properties of the radiation from SASE FEL operating in the linear regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldin, E. L.; Schneidmiller, E. A.; Yurkov, M. V.

    1998-02-01

    The paper presents comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of the radiation from self amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) free electron laser operating in linear mode. The investigation has been performed in a one-dimensional approximation, assuming the electron pulse length to be much larger than a coherence length of the radiation. The following statistical properties of the SASE FEL radiation have been studied: field correlations, distribution of the radiation energy after monochromator installed at the FEL amplifier exit and photoelectric counting statistics of SASE FEL radiation. It is shown that the radiation from SASE FEL operating in linear regime possesses all the features corresponding to completely chaotic polarized radiation.

  16. Ion-impact-induced multifragmentation of liquid droplets★

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Surdutovich, Eugene; Verkhovtsev, Alexey; Solov'yov, Andrey V.

    2017-11-01

    An instability of a liquid droplet traversed by an energetic ion is explored theoretically. This instability is brought about by the predicted shock wave induced by the ion. An observation of multifragmentation of small droplets traversed by ions with high linear energy transfer is suggested to demonstrate the existence of shock waves. A number of effects are analysed in effort to find the conditions for such an experiment to be signifying. The presence of shock waves crucially affects the scenario of radiation damage with ions since the shock waves significantly contribute to the thermomechanical damage of biomolecules as well as the transport of reactive species. While the scenario has been upheld by analyses of biological experiments, the shock waves have not yet been observed directly, regardless of a number of ideas of experiments to detect them were exchanged at conferences. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Dynamics of Systems at the Nanoscale", edited by Andrey Solov'yov and Andrei Korol.

  17. Use of observational and model-derived fields and regime model output statistics in mesoscale forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forbes, G. S.; Pielke, R. A.

    1985-01-01

    Various empirical and statistical weather-forecasting studies which utilize stratification by weather regime are described. Objective classification was used to determine weather regime in some studies. In other cases the weather pattern was determined on the basis of a parameter representing the physical and dynamical processes relevant to the anticipated mesoscale phenomena, such as low level moisture convergence and convective precipitation, or the Froude number and the occurrence of cold-air damming. For mesoscale phenomena already in existence, new forecasting techniques were developed. The use of cloud models in operational forecasting is discussed. Models to calculate the spatial scales of forcings and resultant response for mesoscale systems are presented. The use of these models to represent the climatologically most prevalent systems, and to perform case-by-case simulations is reviewed. Operational implementation of mesoscale data into weather forecasts, using both actual simulation output and method-output statistics is discussed.

  18. Ratio of shear viscosity to entropy density in multifragmentation of Au + Au

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, C. L.; Ma, Y. G.; Fang, D. Q.; Li, S. X.; Zhang, G. Q.

    2012-06-01

    The ratio of the shear viscosity (η) to entropy density (s) for the intermediate energy heavy-ion collisions has been calculated by using the Green-Kubo method in the framework of the quantum molecular dynamics model. The theoretical curve of η/s as a function of the incident energy for the head-on Au + Au collisions displays that a minimum region of η/s has been approached at higher incident energies, where the minimum η/s value is about 7 times Kovtun-Son-Starinets (KSS) bound (1/4π). We argue that the onset of minimum η/s region at higher incident energies corresponds to the nuclear liquid gas phase transition in nuclear multifragmentation.

  19. Identifying natural flow regimes using fish communities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Chen, Hung-kwai; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2011-10-01

    SummaryModern water resources management has adopted natural flow regimes as reasonable targets for river restoration and conservation. The characterization of a natural flow regime begins with the development of hydrologic statistics from flow records. However, little guidance exists for defining the period of record needed for regime determination. In Taiwan, the Taiwan Eco-hydrological Indicator System (TEIS), a group of hydrologic statistics selected for fisheries relevance, is being used to evaluate ecological flows. The TEIS consists of a group of hydrologic statistics selected to characterize the relationships between flow and the life history of indigenous species. Using the TEIS and biosurvey data for Taiwan, this paper identifies the length of hydrologic record sufficient for natural flow regime characterization. To define the ecological hydrology of fish communities, this study connected hydrologic statistics to fish communities by using methods to define antecedent conditions that influence existing community composition. A moving average method was applied to TEIS statistics to reflect the effects of antecedent flow condition and a point-biserial correlation method was used to relate fisheries collections with TEIS statistics. The resulting fish species-TEIS (FISH-TEIS) hydrologic statistics matrix takes full advantage of historical flows and fisheries data. The analysis indicates that, in the watersheds analyzed, averaging TEIS statistics for the present year and 3 years prior to the sampling date, termed MA(4), is sufficient to develop a natural flow regime. This result suggests that flow regimes based on hydrologic statistics for the period of record can be replaced by regimes developed for sampled fish communities.

  20. IDENTIFICATION OF REGIME SHIFTS IN TIME SERIES USING NEIGHBORHOOD STATISTICS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The identification of alternative dynamic regimes in ecological systems requires several lines of evidence. Previous work on time series analysis of dynamic regimes includes mainly model-fitting methods. We introduce two methods that do not use models. These approaches use state-...

  1. Statistical Mechanics of the Human Placenta: A Stationary State of a Near-Equilibrium System in a Linear Regime.

    PubMed

    Lecarpentier, Yves; Claes, Victor; Hébert, Jean-Louis; Krokidis, Xénophon; Blanc, François-Xavier; Michel, Francine; Timbely, Oumar

    2015-01-01

    All near-equilibrium systems under linear regime evolve to stationary states in which there is constant entropy production rate. In an open chemical system that exchanges matter and energy with the exterior, we can identify both the energy and entropy flows associated with the exchange of matter and energy. This can be achieved by applying statistical mechanics (SM), which links the microscopic properties of a system to its bulk properties. In the case of contractile tissues such as human placenta, Huxley's equations offer a phenomenological formalism for applying SM. SM was investigated in human placental stem villi (PSV) (n = 40). PSV were stimulated by means of KCl exposure (n = 20) and tetanic electrical stimulation (n = 20). This made it possible to determine statistical entropy (S), internal energy (E), affinity (A), thermodynamic force (A / T) (T: temperature), thermodynamic flow (v) and entropy production rate (A / T x v). We found that PSV operated near equilibrium, i.e., A ≺≺ 2500 J/mol and in a stationary linear regime, i.e., (A / T) varied linearly with v. As v was dramatically low, entropy production rate which quantified irreversibility of chemical processes appeared to be the lowest ever observed in any contractile system.

  2. Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2016-02-01

    The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

  3. Effect of scaled Gaussian width (SGW) on fragment flow and multifragmentation in heavy-ion collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajni; Kumar, Suneel

    2012-02-01

    We have analyzed the role of interaction range on multifragmentation within the isospin-dependent quantum molecular dynamic (IQMD) model. We find that the effect of width of Gaussian wave packet associated with a nucleon depends on the mass of the colliding system. For a given set of input parameters, we find that width has a sizable effect. At the same time, we know that a different set of parameters can influence the reaction dynamics drastically. Hence, in our opinion it may not be possible to pin down the width to a very narrow level. A systematic study of mass effect ( 197Au, 124La, 124Sn, 107Sn in the breakup of a projectile spectator at intermediate energies has been performed. We also studied the disapperance of flow which demonstrates the effect of the scaled Gaussian width (SGW). Our studies shows that SGW influences the reaction dynamics.

  4. Experimental observations of Lagrangian sand grain kinematics under bedload transport: statistical description of the step and rest regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guala, M.; Liu, M.

    2017-12-01

    The kinematics of sediment particles is investigated by non-intrusive imaging methods to provide a statistical description of bedload transport in conditions near the threshold of motion. In particular, we focus on the cyclic transition between motion and rest regimes to quantify the waiting time statistics inferred to be responsible for anomalous diffusion, and so far elusive. Despite obvious limitations in the spatio-temporal domain of the observations, we are able to identify the probability distributions of the particle step time and length, velocity, acceleration, waiting time, and thus distinguish which quantities exhibit well converged mean values, based on the thickness of their respective tails. The experimental results shown here for four different transport conditions highlight the importance of the waiting time distribution and represent a benchmark dataset for the stochastic modeling of bedload transport.

  5. I. Excluded volume effects in Ising cluster distributions and nuclear multifragmentation. II. Multiple-chance effects in alpha-particle evaporation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Breus, Dimitry Eugene

    In Part I, geometric clusters of the Ising model are studied as possible model clusters for nuclear multifragmentation. These clusters may not be considered as non-interacting (ideal gas) due to excluded volume effect which predominantly is the artifact of the cluster's finite size. Interaction significantly complicates the use of clusters in the analysis of thermodynamic systems. Stillinger's theory is used as a basis for the analysis, which within the RFL (Reiss, Frisch, Lebowitz) fluid-of-spheres approximation produces a prediction for cluster concentrations well obeyed by geometric clusters of the Ising model. If thermodynamic condition of phase coexistence is met, these concentrations can be incorporated into a differential equation procedure of moderate complexity to elucidate the liquid-vapor phase diagram of the system with cluster interaction included. The drawback of increased complexity is outweighted by the reward of greater accuracy of the phase diagram, as it is demonstrated by the Ising model. A novel nuclear-cluster analysis procedure is developed by modifying Fisher's model to contain cluster interaction and employing the differential equation procedure to obtain thermodynamic variables. With this procedure applied to geometric clusters, the guidelines are developed to look for excluded volume effect in nuclear multifragmentation. In Part II, an explanation is offered for the recently observed oscillations in the energy spectra of alpha-particles emitted from hot compound nuclei. Contrary to what was previously expected, the oscillations are assumed to be caused by the multiple-chance nature of alpha-evaporation. In a semi-empirical fashion this assumption is successfully confirmed by a technique of two-spectra decomposition which treats experimental alpha-spectra as having contributions from at least two independent emitters. Building upon the success of the multiple-chance explanation of the oscillations, Moretto's single-chance evaporation

  6. Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.

    2014-01-01

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.

  7. Statistics of vacuum breakdown in the high-gradient and low-rate regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuensch, Walter; Degiovanni, Alberto; Calatroni, Sergio; Korsbäck, Anders; Djurabekova, Flyura; Rajamäki, Robin; Giner-Navarro, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    In an increasing number of high-gradient linear accelerator applications, accelerating structures must operate with both high surface electric fields and low breakdown rates. Understanding the statistical properties of breakdown occurrence in such a regime is of practical importance for optimizing accelerator conditioning and operation algorithms, as well as of interest for efforts to understand the physical processes which underlie the breakdown phenomenon. Experimental data of breakdown has been collected in two distinct high-gradient experimental set-ups: A prototype linear accelerating structure operated in the Compact Linear Collider Xbox 12 GHz test stands, and a parallel plate electrode system operated with pulsed DC in the kV range. Collected data is presented, analyzed and compared. The two systems show similar, distinctive, two-part distributions of number of pulses between breakdowns, with each part corresponding to a specific, constant event rate. The correlation between distance and number of pulses between breakdown indicates that the two parts of the distribution, and their corresponding event rates, represent independent primary and induced follow-up breakdowns. The similarity of results from pulsed DC to 12 GHz rf indicates a similar vacuum arc triggering mechanism over the range of conditions covered by the experiments.

  8. Dynamics of hot rotating nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garcias, F.; de La Mota, V.; Remaud, B.; Royer, G.; Sébille, F.

    1991-02-01

    The deexcitation of hot rotating nuclei is studied within a microscopic semiclassical transport formalism. This framework allows the study of the competition between the fission and evaporation channels of deexcitation, including the mean-field and two-body interactions, without shape constraint for the fission channel. As a function of initial angular momenta and excitation energies, the transitions between three regimes is analyzed [particle evaporation, binary (ternary) fussion and multifragmentation], which correspond to well-defined symmetry breakings in the inertia tensor of the system. The competition between evaporation and binary fission is studied, showing the progressive disappearance of the fission process with increasing excitation energies, up to a critical point where nuclei pass directly from evaporation to multifragmentation channels.

  9. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift | Science ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia. This manuscript explores various methods of assessing the transition between alternative states in an ecological system described by a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset.

  10. Rheological equations in asymptotic regimes of granular flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chen, C.-L.; Ling, C.-H.

    1998-01-01

    This paper assesses the validity of the generalized viscoplastic fluid (GVF) model in light of the established constitutive relations in two asymptotic flow regimes, namely, the macroviscous and grain-inertia regimes. A comprehensive review of the literature on constitutive relations in both regimes reveals that except for some material constants, such as the coefficient of restitution, the normalized shear stress in both regimes varies only with the grain concentration, C. It is found that Krieger-Dougherty's relative viscosity, ??*(C), is sufficiently coherent among the monotonically nondecreasing functions of C used in describing the variation of the shear stress with C in both regimes. It not only accurately represents the C-dependent relative viscosity of a suspension in the macroviscous regime, but also plays a role of the radial distribution function that describes the statistics of particle collisions in the grain-inertia regime. Use of ??*(C) alone, however, cannot link the two regimes. Another parameter, the shear-rate number, N, is needed in modelling the rheology of neutrally buoyant granular flows in transition between the two asymptotic regimes. The GVF model proves compatible with most established relations in both regimes.

  11. Statistical analysis of electroconvection near an ion-selective membrane in the highly chaotic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Druzgalski, Clara; Mani, Ali

    2016-11-01

    We investigate electroconvection and its impact on ion transport in a model system comprised of an ion-selective membrane, an aqueous electrolyte, and an external electric field applied normal to the membrane. We develop a direct numerical simulation code to solve the governing Poisson-Nernst-Planck and Navier-Stokes equations in three dimensions using a specialized parallel numerical algorithm and sufficient resolution to capture the high frequency and high wavenumber physics. We show a comprehensive statistical analysis of the transport phenomena in the highly chaotic regime. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of two-dimensional (2D) and 3D simulations include prediction of the mean concentration fields as well as the spectra of concentration, charge density, and velocity signals. Our analyses reveal a significant quantitative difference between 2D and 3D electroconvection. Furthermore, we show that high-intensity yet short-lived current density hot spots appear randomly on the membrane surface, contributing significantly to the mean current density. By examining cross correlations between current density on the membrane and other field quantities we explore the physical mechanisms leading to current hot spots. We also present analysis of transport fluxes in the context of ensemble-averaged equations. Our analysis reveals that in the highly chaotic regime the mixing layer (ML), which spans the majority of the domain extent, is governed by advective fluctuations. Furthermore, we show that in the ML the mean electromigration fluxes cancel out for positive and negative ions, indicating that the mean transport of total salt content within the ML can be represented via the electroneutral approximation. Finally, we present an assessment of the importance of different length scales in enhancing transport by computing the cross covariance of concentration and velocity fluctuations in the wavenumber space. Our analysis indicates that in the majority of the domain

  12. Statistics of Natural Communication Signals Observed in the Wild Identify Important Yet Neglected Stimulus Regimes in Weakly Electric Fish.

    PubMed

    Henninger, Jörg; Krahe, Rüdiger; Kirschbaum, Frank; Grewe, Jan; Benda, Jan

    2018-06-13

    Sensory systems evolve in the ecological niches that each species is occupying. Accordingly, encoding of natural stimuli by sensory neurons is expected to be adapted to the statistics of these stimuli. For a direct quantification of sensory scenes, we tracked natural communication behavior of male and female weakly electric fish, Apteronotus rostratus , in their Neotropical rainforest habitat with high spatiotemporal resolution over several days. In the context of courtship, we observed large quantities of electrocommunication signals. Echo responses, acknowledgment signals, and their synchronizing role in spawning demonstrated the behavioral relevance of these signals. In both courtship and aggressive contexts, we observed robust behavioral responses in stimulus regimes that have so far been neglected in electrophysiological studies of this well characterized sensory system and that are well beyond the range of known best frequency and amplitude tuning of the electroreceptor afferents' firing rate modulation. Our results emphasize the importance of quantifying sensory scenes derived from freely behaving animals in their natural habitats for understanding the function and evolution of neural systems. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The processing mechanisms of sensory systems have evolved in the context of the natural lives of organisms. To understand the functioning of sensory systems therefore requires probing them in the stimulus regimes in which they evolved. We took advantage of the continuously generated electric fields of weakly electric fish to explore electrosensory stimulus statistics in their natural Neotropical habitat. Unexpectedly, many of the electrocommunication signals recorded during courtship, spawning, and aggression had much smaller amplitudes or higher frequencies than stimuli used so far in neurophysiological characterizations of the electrosensory system. Our results demonstrate that quantifying sensory scenes derived from freely behaving animals in

  13. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of th...

  14. Conditional heteroscedasticity as a leading indicator of ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Seekell, David A; Carpenter, Stephen R; Pace, Michael L

    2011-10-01

    Regime shifts are massive, often irreversible, rearrangements of nonlinear ecological processes that occur when systems pass critical transition points. Ecological regime shifts sometimes have severe consequences for human well-being, including eutrophication in lakes, desertification, and species extinctions. Theoretical and laboratory evidence suggests that statistical anomalies may be detectable leading indicators of regime shifts in ecological time series, making it possible to foresee and potentially avert incipient regime shifts. Conditional heteroscedasticity is persistent variance characteristic of time series with clustered volatility. Here, we analyze conditional heteroscedasticity as a potential leading indicator of regime shifts in ecological time series. We evaluate conditional heteroscedasticity by using ecological models with and without four types of critical transition. On approaching transition points, all time series contain significant conditional heteroscedasticity. This signal is detected hundreds of time steps in advance of the regime shift. Time series without regime shifts do not have significant conditional heteroscedasticity. Because probability values are easily associated with tests for conditional heteroscedasticity, detection of false positives in time series without regime shifts is minimized. This property reduces the need for a reference system to compare with the perturbed system.

  15. Vegetation management with fire modifies peatland soil thermal regime.

    PubMed

    Brown, Lee E; Palmer, Sheila M; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Holden, Joseph

    2015-05-01

    Vegetation removal with fire can alter the thermal regime of the land surface, leading to significant changes in biogeochemistry (e.g. carbon cycling) and soil hydrology. In the UK, large expanses of carbon-rich upland environments are managed to encourage increased abundance of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) by rotational burning of shrub vegetation. To date, though, there has not been any consideration of whether prescribed vegetation burning on peatlands modifies the thermal regime of the soil mass in the years after fire. In this study thermal regime was monitored across 12 burned peatland soil plots over an 18-month period, with the aim of (i) quantifying thermal dynamics between burned plots of different ages (from <2 to 15 + years post burning), and (ii) developing statistical models to determine the magnitude of thermal change caused by vegetation management. Compared to plots burned 15 + years previously, plots recently burned (<2-4 years) showed higher mean, maximum and range of soil temperatures, and lower minima. Statistical models (generalised least square regression) were developed to predict daily mean and maximum soil temperature in plots burned 15 + years prior to the study. These models were then applied to predict temperatures of plots burned 2, 4 and 7 years previously, with significant deviations from predicted temperatures illustrating the magnitude of burn management effects. Temperatures measured in soil plots burned <2 years previously showed significant statistical disturbances from model predictions, reaching +6.2 °C for daily mean temperatures and +19.6 °C for daily maxima. Soil temperatures in plots burnt 7 years previously were most similar to plots burned 15 + years ago indicating the potential for soil temperatures to recover as vegetation regrows. Our findings that prescribed peatland vegetation burning alters soil thermal regime should provide an impetus for further research to understand the consequences of thermal regime

  16. Cloud regimes as phase transitions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stechmann, Samuel; Hottovy, Scott

    2017-11-01

    Clouds are repeatedly identified as a leading source of uncertainty in future climate predictions. Of particular importance are stratocumulus clouds, which can appear as either (i) closed cells that reflect solar radiation back to space or (ii) open cells that allow solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. Here we show that these clouds regimes - open versus closed cells - fit the paradigm of a phase transition. In addition, this paradigm characterizes pockets of open cells (POCs) as the interface between the open- and closed-cell regimes, and it identifies shallow cumulus clouds as a regime of higher variability. This behavior can be understood using an idealized model for the dynamics of atmospheric water as a stochastic diffusion process. Similar viewpoints of deep convection and self-organized criticality will also be discussed. With these new conceptual viewpoints, ideas from statistical mechanics could potentially be used for understanding uncertainties related to clouds in the climate system and climate predictions. The research of S.N.S. is partially supported by a Sloan Research Fellowship, ONR Young Investigator Award N00014-12-1-0744, and ONR MURI Grant N00014-12-1-0912.

  17. Meteorological regimes for the classification of aerospace air quality predictions for NASA-Kennedy Space Center

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stephens, J. B.; Sloan, J. C.

    1976-01-01

    A method is described for developing a statistical air quality assessment for the launch of an aerospace vehicle from the Kennedy Space Center in terms of existing climatological data sets. The procedure can be refined as developing meteorological conditions are identified for use with the NASA-Marshall Space Flight Center Rocket Exhaust Effluent Diffusion (REED) description. Classical climatological regimes for the long range analysis can be narrowed as the synoptic and mesoscale structure is identified. Only broad synoptic regimes are identified at this stage of analysis. As the statistical data matrix is developed, synoptic regimes will be refined in terms of the resulting eigenvectors as applicable to aerospace air quality predictions.

  18. Water use regimes: Characterizing direct human interaction with hydrologic systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiskel, Peter K.; Vogel, Richard M.; Steeves, Peter A.; Zarriello, Philip J.; Desimone, Leslie A.; Ries, Kernell G.

    2007-01-01

    The sustainability of human water use practices is a rapidly growing concern in the United States and around the world. To better characterize direct human interaction with hydrologic systems (stream basins and aquifers), we introduce the concept of the water use regime. Unlike scalar indicators of anthropogenic hydrologic stress in the literature, the water use regime is a two‐dimensional, vector indicator that can be depicted on simple x‐y plots of normalized human withdrawals (hout) versus normalized human return flows (hin). Four end‐member regimes, natural‐flow‐dominated (undeveloped), human‐flow‐dominated (churned), withdrawal‐dominated (depleted), and return‐flow‐dominated (surcharged), are defined in relation to limiting values of hout and hin. For illustration, the water use regimes of 19 diverse hydrologic systems are plotted and interpreted. Several of these systems, including the Yellow River Basin, China, and the California Central Valley Aquifer, are shown to approach particular end‐member regimes. Spatial and temporal regime variations, both seasonal and long‐term, are depicted. Practical issues of data availability and regime uncertainty are addressed in relation to the statistical properties of the ratio estimators hout and hin. The water use regime is shown to be a useful tool for comparative water resources assessment and for describing both historic and alternative future pathways of water resource development at a range of scales.

  19. Effects of quantum coherence on work statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Bao-Ming; Zou, Jian; Guo, Li-Sha; Kong, Xiang-Mu

    2018-05-01

    In the conventional two-point measurement scheme of quantum thermodynamics, quantum coherence is destroyed by the first measurement. But as we know the coherence really plays an important role in the quantum thermodynamics process, and how to describe the work statistics for a quantum coherent process is still an open question. In this paper, we use the full counting statistics method to investigate the effects of quantum coherence on work statistics. First, we give a general discussion and show that for a quantum coherent process, work statistics is very different from that of the two-point measurement scheme, specifically the average work is increased or decreased and the work fluctuation can be decreased by quantum coherence, which strongly depends on the relative phase, the energy level structure, and the external protocol. Then, we concretely consider a quenched one-dimensional transverse Ising model and show that quantum coherence has a more significant influence on work statistics in the ferromagnetism regime compared with that in the paramagnetism regime, so that due to the presence of quantum coherence the work statistics can exhibit the critical phenomenon even at high temperature.

  20. Characterizing Wildfire Regimes and Risk in the USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malamud, B. D.; Millington, J. D.; Perry, G. L.

    2004-12-01

    Over the last decade, high profile wildfires have resulted in numerous fatalities and loss of infrastructure. Wildfires also have a significant impact on climate and ecosystems, with recent authors emphasizing the need for regional-level examinations of wildfire-regime dynamics and change, and the factors driving them. With implications for hazard management, climate studies, and ecosystem research, there is therefore significant interest in appropriate analysis of historical wildfire databases. Insightful studies using wildfire database statistics exist, but are often hampered by the low spatial and/or temporal resolution of their datasets. In this paper, we use a high-resolution dataset consisting of 88,855 USFS wildfires over the time period 1970--2000, and consider wildfire occurrence across the conterminous USA as a function of ecoregion (land units classified by climate, vegetation, and topography), ignition source (anthropogenic vs. lightning), and decade (1970--1979, 1980--1989, 1990--1999). We find that for the conterminous USA (a) wildfires exhibit robust frequency-area power-law behavior in 17 different ecoregions, (b) normalized power-law exponents may be used to compare the scaling of wildfire burned areas between regions, (c) power-law exponents change systematically from east to west, (d) wildfires in 75% of the conterminous USA (particularly the east) have higher power-law exponents for anthropogenic vs. lightning ignition sources, and (e) recurrence intervals for wildfires of a given burned area or larger for each ecoregion can be assessed, allowing for the classification of wildfire regimes for probabilistic hazard estimation in the same vein as is now used for earthquakes. By examining wildfire statistics in a spatially and temporally explicit manner, we are able to present resultant wildfire regime summary statistics and conclusions, along with a probabilistic hazard assessment of wildfire risk at the ecoregion division level across the

  1. Statistical-dynamical modeling of the cloud-to-ground lightning activity in Portugal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sousa, J. F.; Fragoso, M.; Mendes, S.; Corte-Real, J.; Santos, J. A.

    2013-10-01

    The present study employs a dataset of cloud-to-ground discharges over Portugal, collected by the Portuguese lightning detection network in the period of 2003-2009, to identify dynamically coherent lightning regimes in Portugal and to implement a statistical-dynamical modeling of the daily discharges over the country. For this purpose, the high-resolution MERRA reanalysis is used. Three lightning regimes are then identified for Portugal: WREG, WREM and SREG. WREG is a typical cold-core cut-off low. WREM is connected to strong frontal systems driven by remote low pressure systems at higher latitudes over the North Atlantic. SREG is a combination of an inverted trough and a mid-tropospheric cold-core nearby Portugal. The statistical-dynamical modeling is based on logistic regressions (statistical component) developed for each regime separately (dynamical component). It is shown that the strength of the lightning activity (either strong or weak) for each regime is consistently modeled by a set of suitable dynamical predictors (65-70% of efficiency). The difference of the equivalent potential temperature in the 700-500 hPa layer is the best predictor for the three regimes, while the best 4-layer lifted index is still important for all regimes, but with much weaker significance. Six other predictors are more suitable for a specific regime. For the purpose of validating the modeling approach, a regional-scale climate model simulation is carried out under a very intense lightning episode.

  2. Laser Frequency Noise in Coherent Optical Systems: Spectral Regimes and Impairments.

    PubMed

    Kakkar, Aditya; Rodrigo Navarro, Jaime; Schatz, Richard; Pang, Xiaodan; Ozolins, Oskars; Udalcovs, Aleksejs; Louchet, Hadrien; Popov, Sergei; Jacobsen, Gunnar

    2017-04-12

    Coherent communication networks are based on the ability to use multiple dimensions of the lightwave together with electrical domain compensation of transmission impairments. Electrical-domain dispersion compensation (EDC) provides many advantages such as network flexibility and enhanced fiber nonlinearity tolerance, but makes the system more susceptible to laser frequency noise (FN), e.g. to the local oscillator FN in systems with post-reception EDC. Although this problem has been extensively studied, statistically, for links assuming lasers with white-FN, many questions remain unanswered. Particularly, the influence of a realistic non-white FN-spectrum due to e.g., the presence of 1/f-flicker and carrier induced noise remains elusive and a statistical analysis becomes insufficient. Here we provide an experimentally validated theory for coherent optical links with lasers having general non-white FN-spectrum and EDC. The fundamental reason of the increased susceptibility is shown to be FN-induced symbol displacement that causes timing jitter and/or inter/intra symbol interference. We establish that different regimes of the laser FN-spectrum cause a different set of impairments. The influence of the impairments due to some regimes can be reduced by optimizing the corresponding mitigation algorithms, while other regimes cause irretrievable impairments. Theoretical boundaries of these regimes and corresponding criteria applicable to system/laser design are provided.

  3. Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago

    PubMed Central

    Jouffray, Jean-Baptiste; Nyström, Magnus; Norström, Albert V.; Williams, Ivor D.; Wedding, Lisa M.; Kittinger, John N.; Williams, Gareth J.

    2015-01-01

    Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts and, conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. This study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae. Results from boosted regression trees show nonlinear patterns among predictors that help to explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition to effluent, latitude and depth.

  4. Height Dependency of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction Regimes: Height Dependency of ACI Regime

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chen, Jingyi; Liu, Yangang; Zhang, Minghua

    This study investigates the height dependency of aerosol-cloud interaction regimes in terms of the joint dependence of the key cloud microphysical properties (e.g. cloud droplet number concentration, cloud droplet relative dispersion, etc.) on aerosol number concentration (N a) and vertical velocity (w). The three distinct regimes with different microphysical features are the aerosol-limited regime, the updraft-limited regime, and the transitional regime. The results reveal two new phenomena in updraft-limited regime: 1) The “condensational broadening” of cloud droplet size distribution in contrast to the well-known “condensational narrowing” in the aerosol-limited regime; 2) Above the level of maximum supersaturation, some cloud dropletsmore » are deactivated into interstitial aerosols in the updraft-limited regime whereas all droplets remain activated in the aerosol-limited regime. Further analysis shows that the particle equilibrium supersaturation plays important role in understanding these unique features. Also examined is the height of warm rain initiation and its dependence on N a and w. The rain initiation height is found to depend primarily on either N a or w or both in different N a-w regimes, thus suggesting a strong regime dependence of the second aerosol indirect effect.« less

  5. Height Dependency of Aerosol-Cloud Interaction Regimes: Height Dependency of ACI Regime

    DOE PAGES

    Chen, Jingyi; Liu, Yangang; Zhang, Minghua; ...

    2018-01-10

    This study investigates the height dependency of aerosol-cloud interaction regimes in terms of the joint dependence of the key cloud microphysical properties (e.g. cloud droplet number concentration, cloud droplet relative dispersion, etc.) on aerosol number concentration (N a) and vertical velocity (w). The three distinct regimes with different microphysical features are the aerosol-limited regime, the updraft-limited regime, and the transitional regime. The results reveal two new phenomena in updraft-limited regime: 1) The “condensational broadening” of cloud droplet size distribution in contrast to the well-known “condensational narrowing” in the aerosol-limited regime; 2) Above the level of maximum supersaturation, some cloud dropletsmore » are deactivated into interstitial aerosols in the updraft-limited regime whereas all droplets remain activated in the aerosol-limited regime. Further analysis shows that the particle equilibrium supersaturation plays important role in understanding these unique features. Also examined is the height of warm rain initiation and its dependence on N a and w. The rain initiation height is found to depend primarily on either N a or w or both in different N a-w regimes, thus suggesting a strong regime dependence of the second aerosol indirect effect.« less

  6. Transport processes in magnetically confined plasmas in the nonlinear regime.

    PubMed

    Sonnino, Giorgio

    2006-06-01

    A field theory approach to transport phenomena in magnetically confined plasmas is presented. The thermodynamic field theory (TFT), previously developed for treating the generic thermodynamic system out of equilibrium, is applied to plasmas physics. Transport phenomena are treated here as the effect of the field linking the thermodynamic forces with their conjugate flows combined with statistical mechanics. In particular, the Classical and the Pfirsch-Schluter regimes are analyzed by solving the thermodynamic field equations of the TFT in the weak-field approximation. We found that, the TFT does not correct the expressions of the ionic heat fluxes evaluated by the neoclassical theory in these two regimes. On the other hand, the fluxes of matter and electronic energy (heat flow) is further enhanced in the nonlinear Classical and Pfirsch-Schluter regimes. These results seem to be in line with the experimental observations. The complete set of the electronic and ionic transport equations in the nonlinear Banana regime, is also reported. A paper showing the comparison between our theoretic results and the experimental observations in the JET machine is currently in preparation.

  7. What can we learn from noise? - Mesoscopic nonequilibrium statistical physics.

    PubMed

    Kobayashi, Kensuke

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscopic systems - small electric circuits working in quantum regime - offer us a unique experimental stage to explorer quantum transport in a tunable and precise way. The purpose of this Review is to show how they can contribute to statistical physics. We introduce the significance of fluctuation, or equivalently noise, as noise measurement enables us to address the fundamental aspects of a physical system. The significance of the fluctuation theorem (FT) in statistical physics is noted. We explain what information can be deduced from the current noise measurement in mesoscopic systems. As an important application of the noise measurement to statistical physics, we describe our experimental work on the current and current noise in an electron interferometer, which is the first experimental test of FT in quantum regime. Our attempt will shed new light in the research field of mesoscopic quantum statistical physics.

  8. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T = 37.5°C, awaken regime) and Lévy statistics (T = 35.5°C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  9. A hierarchical fire frequency model to simulate temporal patterns of fire regimes in LANDIS

    Treesearch

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Eric J. Gustafson

    2004-01-01

    Fire disturbance has important ecological effects in many forest landscapes. Existing statistically based approaches can be used to examine the effects of a fire regime on forest landscape dynamics. Most examples of statistically based fire models divide a fire occurrence into two stages--fire ignition and fire initiation. However, the exponential and Weibull fire-...

  10. Retrospective analysis of 119 cases of pediatric acute promyelocytic leukemia: Comparisons of four treatment regimes

    PubMed Central

    LI, EN-QIN; XU, LING; ZHANG, ZHI-QUAN; XIAO, YAN; GUO, HAI-XIA; LUO, XUE-QUN; HU, QUN; LAI, DONG-BO; TU, LI-MING; JIN, RUN-MING

    2012-01-01

    Clinical trials have demonstrated that pediatric acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) is highly curable. Small-scale studies have reported on the treatment of APL using one or two treatment regimes. Here, we report a multiple center-based study of 119 cases of pediatric APL treated with four regimes based on all-trans-retinoic acid (ATRA). We retrospectively analyzed the clinical characteristics, laboratorial test results and treatment outcome of the pediatric APL patients. Regime 1 used an in-house developed protocol, regime 2 was modified from the PETHEMA LPA99 protocol, regime 3 was modified from the European-APL93 protocol, and regime 4 used a protocol suggested by the British Committee for Standards in Haematology. The overall complete remission rates for the four regimes were 88.9, 87.5, 97.1 and 87.5%, respectively, which exhibited no statistical difference. However, more favorable results were observed for regimes 2 and 3 than regimes 1 and 4, in terms of the estimated 3.5-year disease-free survivals, relapse rates, drug toxicity (including hepatotoxicity, cardiac arrhythmia, and differentiation syndrome) and sepsis. In conclusion, the overall outcomes were more favorable after treatment with regimes 2 and 3 than with regimes 1 and 4, and this may have been due to the specific compositions of regimes 2 and 3. PMID:23060929

  11. Deep Strong Coupling Regime of the Jaynes-Cummings Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casanova, J.; Romero, G.; Lizuain, I.; García-Ripoll, J. J.; Solano, E.

    2010-12-01

    We study the quantum dynamics of a two-level system interacting with a quantized harmonic oscillator in the deep strong coupling regime (DSC) of the Jaynes-Cummings model, that is, when the coupling strength g is comparable or larger than the oscillator frequency ω (g/ω≳1). In this case, the rotating-wave approximation cannot be applied or treated perturbatively in general. We propose an intuitive and predictive physical frame to describe the DSC regime where photon number wave packets bounce back and forth along parity chains of the Hilbert space, while producing collapse and revivals of the initial population. We exemplify our physical frame with numerical and analytical considerations in the qubit population, photon statistics, and Wigner phase space.

  12. Statistical precision of the intensities retrieved from constrained fitting of overlapping peaks in high-resolution mass spectra

    DOE PAGES

    Cubison, M. J.; Jimenez, J. L.

    2015-06-05

    Least-squares fitting of overlapping peaks is often needed to separately quantify ions in high-resolution mass spectrometer data. A statistical simulation approach is used to assess the statistical precision of the retrieved peak intensities. The sensitivity of the fitted peak intensities to statistical noise due to ion counting is probed for synthetic data systems consisting of two overlapping ion peaks whose positions are pre-defined and fixed in the fitting procedure. The fitted intensities are sensitive to imperfections in the m/Q calibration. These propagate as a limiting precision in the fitted intensities that may greatly exceed the precision arising from counting statistics.more » The precision on the fitted peak intensity falls into one of three regimes. In the "counting-limited regime" (regime I), above a peak separation χ ~ 2 to 3 half-widths at half-maximum (HWHM), the intensity precision is similar to that due to counting error for an isolated ion. For smaller χ and higher ion counts (~ 1000 and higher), the intensity precision rapidly degrades as the peak separation is reduced ("calibration-limited regime", regime II). Alternatively for χ < 1.6 but lower ion counts (e.g. 10–100) the intensity precision is dominated by the additional ion count noise from the overlapping ion and is not affected by the imprecision in the m/Q calibration ("overlapping-limited regime", regime III). The transition between the counting and m/Q calibration-limited regimes is shown to be weakly dependent on resolving power and data spacing and can thus be approximated by a simple parameterisation based only on peak intensity ratios and separation. A simple equation can be used to find potentially problematic ion pairs when evaluating results from fitted spectra containing many ions. Longer integration times can improve the precision in regimes I and III, but a given ion pair can only be moved out of regime II through increased spectrometer resolving power. As a result

  13. Globalization, marine regime shifts and the Soviet Union

    PubMed Central

    Österblom, Henrik; Folke, Carl

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts have been observed in marine ecosystems around the world, with climate and fishing suggested as major drivers of such shifts. The global and regional dynamics of the climate system have been studied in this context, and efforts to develop an analogous understanding of fishing activities are developing. Here, we investigate the timing of pelagic marine regime shifts in relation to the emergence of regional and global fishing activities of the Soviet Union. Our investigation of official catch statistics reflects that the Soviet Union was a major fishing actor in all large marine ecosystems where regime shifts have been documented, including in ecosystems where overfishing has been established as a key driver of these changes (in the Baltic and Black Seas and the Scotian Shelf). Globalization of Soviet Union fishing activities pushed exploitation to radically new levels and triggered regional and global governance responses for improved management. Since then, exploitation levels have remained and increased with new actors involved. Based on our exploratory work, we propose that a deeper understanding of the role of global fishing actors is central for improved management of marine ecosystems.

  14. Statistical significance test for transition matrices of atmospheric Markov chains

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vautard, Robert; Mo, Kingtse C.; Ghil, Michael

    1990-01-01

    Low-frequency variability of large-scale atmospheric dynamics can be represented schematically by a Markov chain of multiple flow regimes. This Markov chain contains useful information for the long-range forecaster, provided that the statistical significance of the associated transition matrix can be reliably tested. Monte Carlo simulation yields a very reliable significance test for the elements of this matrix. The results of this test agree with previously used empirical formulae when each cluster of maps identified as a distinct flow regime is sufficiently large and when they all contain a comparable number of maps. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable way to test the statistical significance of transitions to and from small clusters. It can determine the most likely transitions, as well as the most unlikely ones, with a prescribed level of statistical significance.

  15. Disorder-assisted quantum transport in suboptimal decoherence regimes

    PubMed Central

    Novo, Leonardo; Mohseni, Masoud; Omar, Yasser

    2016-01-01

    We investigate quantum transport in binary tree structures and in hypercubes for the disordered Frenkel-exciton Hamiltonian under pure dephasing noise. We compute the energy transport efficiency as a function of disorder and dephasing rates. We demonstrate that dephasing improves transport efficiency not only in the disordered case, but also in the ordered one. The maximal transport efficiency is obtained when the dephasing timescale matches the hopping timescale, which represent new examples of the Goldilocks principle at the quantum scale. Remarkably, we find that in weak dephasing regimes, away from optimal levels of environmental fluctuations, the average effect of increasing disorder is to improve the transport efficiency until an optimal value for disorder is reached. Our results suggest that rational design of the site energies statistical distributions could lead to better performances in transport systems at nanoscale when their natural environments are far from the optimal dephasing regime. PMID:26726133

  16. Thinning regimes and initial spacing for Eucalyptus plantations in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ferraz Filho, Antonio C; Mola-Yudego, Blas; González-Olabarria, José R; Scolforo, José Roberto S

    2018-01-01

    This study focuses on the effects of different thinning regimes on clonal Eucalyptus plantations growth. Four different trials, planted in 1999 and located in Bahia and Espírito Santo States, were used. Aside from thinning, initial planting density, and post thinning fertilization application were also evaluated. Before canopy closure, and therefore before excessive competition between trees took place, it was found that stands planted under low densities (667 trees per hectare) presented a lower mortality proportion when compared to stand planted under higher densities (1111 trees per hectare). However, diameter growth prior to thinning operations was not statistically different between these two densities, presenting an overall mean of 4.9 cm/year. After canopy closure and the application of the thinning treatments, it was found that thinning regimes beginning early in the life of the stand and leaving a low number of residual trees presented the highest diameter and height growth. Unthinned treatments and thinning regimes late in the life of the stand (after 5.5 years), leaving a large number of residual trees presented the highest values of basal area production. The choice of the best thinning regime for Eucalyptus clonal material will vary according to the plantation objective.

  17. Arctic circulation regimes

    PubMed Central

    Proshutinsky, Andrey; Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Timmermans, Mary-Louise; Krishfield, Richard; Bamber, Jonathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Between 1948 and 1996, mean annual environmental parameters in the Arctic experienced a well-pronounced decadal variability with two basic circulation patterns: cyclonic and anticyclonic alternating at 5 to 7 year intervals. During cyclonic regimes, low sea-level atmospheric pressure (SLP) dominated over the Arctic Ocean driving sea ice and the upper ocean counterclockwise; the Arctic atmosphere was relatively warm and humid, and freshwater flux from the Arctic Ocean towards the subarctic seas was intensified. By contrast, during anticylonic circulation regimes, high SLP dominated driving sea ice and the upper ocean clockwise. Meanwhile, the atmosphere was cold and dry and the freshwater flux from the Arctic to the subarctic seas was reduced. Since 1997, however, the Arctic system has been under the influence of an anticyclonic circulation regime (17 years) with a set of environmental parameters that are atypical for this regime. We discuss a hypothesis explaining the causes and mechanisms regulating the intensity and duration of Arctic circulation regimes, and speculate how changes in freshwater fluxes from the Arctic Ocean and Greenland impact environmental conditions and interrupt their decadal variability. PMID:26347536

  18. What can we learn from noise? — Mesoscopic nonequilibrium statistical physics —

    PubMed Central

    KOBAYASHI, Kensuke

    2016-01-01

    Mesoscopic systems — small electric circuits working in quantum regime — offer us a unique experimental stage to explorer quantum transport in a tunable and precise way. The purpose of this Review is to show how they can contribute to statistical physics. We introduce the significance of fluctuation, or equivalently noise, as noise measurement enables us to address the fundamental aspects of a physical system. The significance of the fluctuation theorem (FT) in statistical physics is noted. We explain what information can be deduced from the current noise measurement in mesoscopic systems. As an important application of the noise measurement to statistical physics, we describe our experimental work on the current and current noise in an electron interferometer, which is the first experimental test of FT in quantum regime. Our attempt will shed new light in the research field of mesoscopic quantum statistical physics. PMID:27477456

  19. Rigorous Statistical Bounds in Uncertainty Quantification for One-Layer Turbulent Geophysical Flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, Di; Majda, Andrew J.

    2018-04-01

    Statistical bounds controlling the total fluctuations in mean and variance about a basic steady-state solution are developed for the truncated barotropic flow over topography. Statistical ensemble prediction is an important topic in weather and climate research. Here, the evolution of an ensemble of trajectories is considered using statistical instability analysis and is compared and contrasted with the classical deterministic instability for the growth of perturbations in one pointwise trajectory. The maximum growth of the total statistics in fluctuations is derived relying on the statistical conservation principle of the pseudo-energy. The saturation bound of the statistical mean fluctuation and variance in the unstable regimes with non-positive-definite pseudo-energy is achieved by linking with a class of stable reference states and minimizing the stable statistical energy. Two cases with dependence on initial statistical uncertainty and on external forcing and dissipation are compared and unified under a consistent statistical stability framework. The flow structures and statistical stability bounds are illustrated and verified by numerical simulations among a wide range of dynamical regimes, where subtle transient statistical instability exists in general with positive short-time exponential growth in the covariance even when the pseudo-energy is positive-definite. Among the various scenarios in this paper, there exist strong forward and backward energy exchanges between different scales which are estimated by the rigorous statistical bounds.

  20. Analysis of the linkage between rain and flood regime and its application to regional flood frequency estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cunderlik, Juraj M.; Burn, Donald H.

    2002-04-01

    Improving techniques of flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites is one of the foremost goals of contemporary hydrology. River flood regime is a resultant reflection of a composite catchment hydrologic response to flood producing processes. In this sense the process of identifying homogeneous pooling groups can be plausibly based on catchment similarity in flood regime. Unfortunately the application of any pooling approach that is based on flood regime is restricted to gauged sites. Because flood regime can be markedly determined by rainfall regime, catchment similarity in rainfall regime can be an alternative option for identifying flood frequency pooling groups. An advantage of such a pooling approach is that rainfall data are usually spatially and temporary more abundant than flood data and the approach can also be applied at ungauged sites. Therefore in this study we have quantified the linkage between rainfall and flood regime and explored the appropriateness of substituting rainfall regime for flood regime in regional pooling schemes. Two different approaches to describing rainfall regime similarity using tools of directional statistics have been tested and used for evaluation of the potential of rainfall regime for identification of hydrologically homogeneous pooling groups. The outputs were compared to an existing pooling framework adopted in the Flood Estimation Handbook. The results demonstrate that regional pooling based on rainfall regime information leads to a high number of initially homogeneous groups and seems to be a sound pooling alternative for catchments with a close linkage between rain and flood regimes.

  1. Transitions between superstatistical regimes: Validity, breakdown and applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jizba, Petr; Korbel, Jan; Lavička, Hynek; Prokš, Martin; Svoboda, Václav; Beck, Christian

    2018-03-01

    Superstatistics is a widely employed tool of non-equilibrium statistical physics which plays an important rôle in analysis of hierarchical complex dynamical systems. Yet, its "canonical" formulation in terms of a single nuisance parameter is often too restrictive when applied to complex empirical data. Here we show that a multi-scale generalization of the superstatistics paradigm is more versatile, allowing to address such pertinent issues as transmutation of statistics or inter-scale stochastic behavior. To put some flesh on the bare bones, we provide a numerical evidence for a transition between two superstatistics regimes, by analyzing high-frequency (minute-tick) data for share-price returns of seven selected companies. Salient issues, such as breakdown of superstatistics in fractional diffusion processes or connection with Brownian subordination are also briefly discussed.

  2. Dynamic Financial Constraints: Distinguishing Mechanism Design from Exogenously Incomplete Regimes*

    PubMed Central

    Karaivanov, Alexander; Townsend, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    We formulate and solve a range of dynamic models of constrained credit/insurance that allow for moral hazard and limited commitment. We compare them to full insurance and exogenously incomplete financial regimes (autarky, saving only, borrowing and lending in a single asset). We develop computational methods based on mechanism design, linear programming, and maximum likelihood to estimate, compare, and statistically test these alternative dynamic models with financial/information constraints. Our methods can use both cross-sectional and panel data and allow for measurement error and unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate the models using data on Thai households running small businesses from two separate samples. We find that in the rural sample, the exogenously incomplete saving only and borrowing regimes provide the best fit using data on consumption, business assets, investment, and income. Family and other networks help consumption smoothing there, as in a moral hazard constrained regime. In contrast, in urban areas, we find mechanism design financial/information regimes that are decidedly less constrained, with the moral hazard model fitting best combined business and consumption data. We perform numerous robustness checks in both the Thai data and in Monte Carlo simulations and compare our maximum likelihood criterion with results from other metrics and data not used in the estimation. A prototypical counterfactual policy evaluation exercise using the estimation results is also featured. PMID:25246710

  3. Spontaneous quasi single helicity regimes in EXTRAP T2R reversed-field pinch

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frassinetti, L.; Brunsell, P. R.; Drake, J. R.; Menmuir, S.; Cecconello, M.

    2007-11-01

    In recent years, good progress toward a better understanding and control of the plasma performance in reversed-field pinch devices has been made. These improvements consist both of the discovery of spontaneous plasma regimes, termed the quasi single helicity (QSH) regime, in which part of the plasma core is no longer stochastic, and of the development of techniques for active control of plasma instabilities. In this paper, a systematic study of spontaneous QSH in the EXTRAP T2R device [P. R. Brunsell, H. Bergsaker, M. Cecconello et al., Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 43, 1457 (2001)] is presented. In this device, QSH states can occur spontaneously and it is associated with magnetic and thermal structures. A statistical analysis to determine the most favorable experimental conditions to have a transition to the QSH regime will be presented. The results described here are useful to understand the underlying properties of QSH regimes in view of future applications of the QSH active control in EXTRAP T2R; they are also important to have a comparison with the QSH studied in other devices.

  4. Statistical modeling of natural backgrounds in hyperspectral LWIR data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Truslow, Eric; Manolakis, Dimitris; Cooley, Thomas; Meola, Joseph

    2016-09-01

    Hyperspectral sensors operating in the long wave infrared (LWIR) have a wealth of applications including remote material identification and rare target detection. While statistical models for modeling surface reflectance in visible and near-infrared regimes have been well studied, models for the temperature and emissivity in the LWIR have not been rigorously investigated. In this paper, we investigate modeling hyperspectral LWIR data using a statistical mixture model for the emissivity and surface temperature. Statistical models for the surface parameters can be used to simulate surface radiances and at-sensor radiance which drives the variability of measured radiance and ultimately the performance of signal processing algorithms. Thus, having models that adequately capture data variation is extremely important for studying performance trades. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we study the validity of this model using real hyperspectral data, and compare the relative variability of hyperspectral data in the LWIR and visible and near-infrared (VNIR) regimes. Second, we illustrate how materials that are easily distinguished in the VNIR, may be difficult to separate when imaged in the LWIR.

  5. Changes in precipitation regime in the Baltic countries in 1966-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaagus, Jaak; Briede, Agrita; Rimkus, Egidijus; Sepp, Mait

    2018-01-01

    The aim of the study was to analyse trends and regime shifts in time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation in the eastern Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia) during 1966-2015. Data from 54 stations with nearly homogeneous series were used. The Mann-Kendall test was used for trend analysis and the Rodionov test for the analysis of regime shifts. Rather few statistically significant trends ( p < 0.05) and regime shifts were determined. The highest increase (by approximately 10 mm per decade) was observed in winter precipitation when a significant trend was found at the large majority of stations. For monthly precipitation, increasing trends were detected at many stations in January, February and June. Weak negative trends revealed at few stations in April and September. Annual precipitation has generally increased, but the trend is mostly insignificant. The analysis of regime shifts revealed some significant abrupt changes, the most important of which were upward shifts in winter, in January and February precipitation at many stations since 1990 or in some other years (1989, 1995). A return shift in the time series of February precipitation occurred since 2003. The most significant increase in precipitation was determined in Latvia and the weakest increase in Lithuania.

  6. Global impacts of the 1980s regime shift.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Hari, Renata E; Beaugrand, Grégory; Livingstone, David M; Marty, Christoph; Straile, Dietmar; Barichivich, Jonathan; Goberville, Eric; Adrian, Rita; Aono, Yasuyuki; Brown, Ross; Foster, James; Groisman, Pavel; Hélaouët, Pierre; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Kirby, Richard; Knight, Jeff; Kraberg, Alexandra; Li, Jianping; Lo, Tzu-Ting; Myneni, Ranga B; North, Ryan P; Pounds, J Alan; Sparks, Tim; Stübi, René; Tian, Yongjun; Wiltshire, Karen H; Xiao, Dong; Zhu, Zaichun

    2016-02-01

    Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur. © 2015 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The periodontal abscess (II). Short-term clinical and microbiological efficacy of 2 systemic antibiotic regimes.

    PubMed

    Herrera, D; Roldán, S; O'Connor, A; Sanz, M

    2000-06-01

    The aim of this short-term open parallel longitudinal clinical study was to compare the clinical and microbiological efficacy of 2 different antibiotic regimes in the treatment of acute periodontal abscesses. After patient selection, a clinical examination was carried out recording the following variables: pain, edema, redness, swelling, bleeding on probing, suppuration, tooth mobility, lymphadenopathy, and probing pocket depth. Microbiological samples were taken from the lesion and the patient was randomly assigned to one of two antibiotic regimes: azithromycin or amoxicillin/clavulanate. Clinical variables were recorded, and microbiological samples were taken, at 3-5 days, 10-12 days and 30 days. Additional mechanical treatment (debridement and scaling) was performed in the third visit (10-12 days). Blood and urine samples were collected at baseline and after 10-12 days. Microbiological samples were processed by anaerobic culturing, and isolated periodontal pathogens were tested for antibiotic susceptibility by means of the spiral gradient endpoint methodology. 15 patients took azithromycin, and 14 amoxicillin/clavulanate. Subjective clinical variables demonstrated statistically significant improvements with both antibiotic regimes, which lasted for at least 1 month (p<0.01). Objective clinical variables also showed clear improvements, being statistically significant after 30 days with probing pocket depth in the azithromycin group (p<0.01). Microbiologically, short-term reductions were detected with both antibiotics, however fast recolonization occurred after the third visit. No significant differences were found between both treatment regimes. Antibiotic susceptibilities demonstrated no resistances for amoxicillin/clavulanate, while 2-3 strains of each studied pathogen were resistant to azithromycin. However, both antibiotic regimes were effective in the short-term treatment of periodontal abscesses in periodontitis patients.

  8. Influence of nonlinear effects on statistical properties of the radiation from SASE FEL

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldin, E. L.; Schneidmiller, E. A.; Yurkov, M. V.

    1998-02-01

    The paper presents analysis of statistical properties of the radiation from self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) free-electron laser operating in nonlinear mode. The present approach allows one to calculate the following statistical properties of the SASE FEL radiation: time and spectral field correlation functions, distribution of the fluctuations of the instantaneous radiation power, distribution of the energy in the electron bunch, distribution of the radiation energy after monochromator installed at the FEL amplifier exit and the radiation spectrum. It has been observed that the statistics of the instantaneous radiation power from SASE FEL operating in the nonlinear regime changes significantly with respect to the linear regime. All numerical results presented in the paper have been calculated for the 70 nm SASE FEL at the TESLA Test Facility under construction at DESY.

  9. Raindrop Size Distribution in Different Climatic Regimes from Disdrometer and Dual-Polarized Radar Analysis.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bringi, V. N.; Chandrasekar, V.; Hubbert, J.; Gorgucci, E.; Randeu, W. L.; Schoenhuber, M.

    2003-01-01

    The application of polarimetric radar data to the retrieval of raindrop size distribution parameters and rain rate in samples of convective and stratiform rain types is presented. Data from the Colorado State University (CSU), CHILL, NCAR S-band polarimetric (S-Pol), and NASA Kwajalein radars are analyzed for the statistics and functional relation of these parameters with rain rate. Surface drop size distribution measurements using two different disdrometers (2D video and RD-69) from a number of climatic regimes are analyzed and compared with the radar retrievals in a statistical and functional approach. The composite statistics based on disdrometer and radar retrievals suggest that, on average, the two parameters (generalized intercept and median volume diameter) for stratiform rain distributions lie on a straight line with negative slope, which appears to be consistent with variations in the microphysics of stratiform precipitation (melting of larger, dry snow particles versus smaller, rimed ice particles). In convective rain, `maritime-like' and `continental-like' clusters could be identified in the same two-parameter space that are consistent with the different multiplicative coefficients in the Z = aR1.5 relations quoted in the literature for maritime and continental regimes.

  10. Statistical distributions of ultra-low dose CT sinograms and their fundamental limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Tzu-Cheng; Zhang, Ruoqiao; Alessio, Adam M.; Fu, Lin; De Man, Bruno; Kinahan, Paul E.

    2017-03-01

    Low dose CT imaging is typically constrained to be diagnostic. However, there are applications for even lowerdose CT imaging, including image registration across multi-frame CT images and attenuation correction for PET/CT imaging. We define this as the ultra-low-dose (ULD) CT regime where the exposure level is a factor of 10 lower than current low-dose CT technique levels. In the ULD regime it is possible to use statistically-principled image reconstruction methods that make full use of the raw data information. Since most statistical based iterative reconstruction methods are based on the assumption of that post-log noise distribution is close to Poisson or Gaussian, our goal is to understand the statistical distribution of ULD CT data with different non-positivity correction methods, and to understand when iterative reconstruction methods may be effective in producing images that are useful for image registration or attenuation correction in PET/CT imaging. We first used phantom measurement and calibrated simulation to reveal how the noise distribution deviate from normal assumption under the ULD CT flux environment. In summary, our results indicate that there are three general regimes: (1) Diagnostic CT, where post-log data are well modeled by normal distribution. (2) Lowdose CT, where normal distribution remains a reasonable approximation and statistically-principled (post-log) methods that assume a normal distribution have an advantage. (3) An ULD regime that is photon-starved and the quadratic approximation is no longer effective. For instance, a total integral density of 4.8 (ideal pi for 24 cm of water) for 120kVp, 0.5mAs of radiation source is the maximum pi value where a definitive maximum likelihood value could be found. This leads to fundamental limits in the estimation of ULD CT data when using a standard data processing stream

  11. Predicting regime shifts in flow of the Colorado River

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; McCabe, Gregory J.

    2010-01-01

    The effects of continued global warming on water resources are a concern for water managers and stake holders. In the western United States, where the combined climatic demand and consumptive use of water is equal to or greater than the natural supply of water for some locations, there is growing concern regarding the sustainability of future water supplies. In addition to the adverse effects of warming on water supply, another issue for water managers is accounting for, and managing, the effects of natural climatic variability, particularly persistently dry and wet periods. Analyses of paleo-reconstructions of Upper Colorado River basin (UCRB) flow demonstrate that severe sustained droughts, and persistent pluvial periods, are a recurring characteristic of hydroclimate in the Colorado River basin. Shifts between persistently dry and wet regimes (e.g., decadal to multi-decadal variability (D2M)) have important implications for water supply and water management. In this study paleo-reconstructions of UCRB flow are used to compute the risks of shifts between persistently wet and dry regimes given the length of time in a specific regime. Results indicate that low frequency variability of hydro-climatic conditions and the statistics that describe this low frequency variability can be useful to water managers by providing information about the risk of shifting from one hydrologic regime to another. To manage water resources in the future water managers will have to understand the joint hydrologic effects of natural climate variability and global warming. These joint effects may produce future hydrologic conditions that are unprecedented in both the instrumental and paleoclimatic records.

  12. Microgravity experiments on vibrated granular gases in a dilute regime: non-classical statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leconte, M.; Garrabos, Y.; Falcon, E.; Lecoutre-Chabot, C.; Palencia, F.; Évesque, P.; Beysens, D.

    2006-07-01

    We report on an experimental study of a dilute gas of steel spheres colliding inelastically and excited by a piston performing sinusoidal vibration, in low gravity. Using improved experimental apparatus, here we present some results concerning the collision statistics of particles on a wall of the container. We also propose a simple model where the non-classical statistics obtained from our data are attributed to the boundary condition playing the role of a 'velostat' instead of a thermostat. The significant differences from the kinetic theory of usual gas are related to the inelasticity of collisions.

  13. Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part I: main content.

    PubMed

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic treatment regimes are set rules for sequential decision making based on patient covariate history. Observational studies are well suited for the investigation of the effects of dynamic treatment regimes because of the variability in treatment decisions found in them. This variability exists because different physicians make different decisions in the face of similar patient histories. In this article we describe an approach to estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime among a set of enforceable regimes. This set is comprised by regimes defined by simple rules based on a subset of past information. The regimes in the set are indexed by a Euclidean vector. The optimal regime is the one that maximizes the expected counterfactual utility over all regimes in the set. We discuss assumptions under which it is possible to identify the optimal regime from observational longitudinal data. Murphy et al. (2001) developed efficient augmented inverse probability weighted estimators of the expected utility of one fixed regime. Our methods are based on an extension of the marginal structural mean model of Robins (1998, 1999) which incorporate the estimation ideas of Murphy et al. (2001). Our models, which we call dynamic regime marginal structural mean models, are specially suitable for estimating the optimal treatment regime in a moderately small class of enforceable regimes of interest. We consider both parametric and semiparametric dynamic regime marginal structural models. We discuss locally efficient, double-robust estimation of the model parameters and of the index of the optimal treatment regime in the set. In a companion paper in this issue of the journal we provide proofs of the main results.

  14. Chi-squared and C statistic minimization for low count per bin data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nousek, John A.; Shue, David R.

    1989-07-01

    Results are presented from a computer simulation comparing two statistical fitting techniques on data samples with large and small counts per bin; the results are then related specifically to X-ray astronomy. The Marquardt and Powell minimization techniques are compared by using both to minimize the chi-squared statistic. In addition, Cash's C statistic is applied, with Powell's method, and it is shown that the C statistic produces better fits in the low-count regime than chi-squared.

  15. Statistical behavior of time dynamics evolution of HIV infection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González, Ramón E. R.; Santos, Iury A. X.; Nunes, Marcos G. P.; de Oliveira, Viviane M.; Barbosa, Anderson L. R.

    2017-09-01

    We use the tools of the random matrix theory (RMT) to investigate the statistical behavior of the evolution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. By means of the nearest-neighbor spacing distribution we have identified four distinct regimes of the evolution of HIV infection. We verified that at the beginning of the so-called clinical latency phase the concentration of infected cells grows slowly and evolves in a correlated way. This regime is followed by another one in which the correlation is lost and that in turn leads the system to a regime in which the increase of infected cells is faster and correlated. In the final phase, the one in which acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is stablished, the system presents maximum correlation as demonstrated by GOE distribution.

  16. Sensitivity to spatial and temporal scale and fire regime inputs in deriving fire regime condition class

    Treesearch

    Linda Tedrow; Wendel J. Hann

    2015-01-01

    The Fire Regime Condition Class (FRCC) is a composite departure measure that compares current vegetation structure and fire regime to historical reference conditions. FRCC is computed as the average of: 1) Vegetation departure (VDEP) and 2) Regime (frequency and severity) departure (RDEP). In addition to the FRCC rating, the Vegetation Condition Class (VCC) and Regime...

  17. Experimental cosmic statistics - I. Variance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colombi, Stéphane; Szapudi, István; Jenkins, Adrian; Colberg, Jörg

    2000-04-01

    Counts-in-cells are measured in the τCDM Virgo Hubble Volume simulation. This large N-body experiment has 109 particles in a cubic box of size 2000h-1Mpc. The unprecedented combination of size and resolution allows, for the first time, a realistic numerical analysis of the cosmic errors and cosmic correlations of statistics related to counts-in-cells measurements, such as the probability distribution function PN itself, its factorial moments Fk and the related cumulants ψ and SNs. These statistics are extracted from the whole simulation cube, as well as from 4096 subcubes of size 125h-1Mpc, each representing a virtual random realization of the local universe. The measurements and their scatter over the subvolumes are compared to the theoretical predictions of Colombi, Bouchet & Schaeffer for P0, and of Szapudi & Colombi and Szapudi, Colombi & Bernardeau for the factorial moments and the cumulants. The general behaviour of experimental variance and cross-correlations as functions of scale and order is well described by theoretical predictions, with a few per cent accuracy in the weakly non-linear regime for the cosmic error on factorial moments. On highly non-linear scales, however, all variants of the hierarchical model used by SC and SCB to describe clustering appear to become increasingly approximate, which leads to a slight overestimation of the error, by about a factor of two in the worst case. Because of the needed supplementary perturbative approach, the theory is less accurate for non-linear estimators, such as cumulants, than for factorial moments. The cosmic bias is evaluated as well, and, in agreement with SCB, is found to be insignificant compared with the cosmic variance in all regimes investigated. While higher order statistics were previously evaluated in several simulations, this work presents textbook quality measurements of SNs, 3<=N<=10, in an unprecedented dynamic range of 0.05 <~ ψ <~ 50. In the weakly non-linear regime the results confirm

  18. Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2002-01-01

    The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes in order to provide cloud data sets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different case are presented: Jan 26,1999, an easterly regime case, and Feb 23,1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line and is initialized with a standard cold pool. The sensitivity to mid-level sounding moisture and wind shear will also be shown. The Feb 23 case is less-organized with only transient lines and is initialized with either warm bubbles or prescribed surface fluxes. Heating profiles, rainfall statistics and storm characteristics are compared and validated for the two cases against observations collected during the experiment.

  19. Using Clustering to Establish Climate Regimes from PCM Output

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oglesby, Robert; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor); Hoffman, Forrest; Hargrove, W. W.; Erickson, D.

    2002-01-01

    A multivariate statistical clustering technique--based on the k-means algorithm of Hartigan has been used to extract patterns of climatological significance from 200 years of general circulation model (GCM) output. Originally developed and implemented on a Beowulf-style parallel computer constructed by Hoffman and Hargrove from surplus commodity desktop PCs, the high performance parallel clustering algorithm was previously applied to the derivation of ecoregions from map stacks of 9 and 25 geophysical conditions or variables for the conterminous U.S. at a resolution of 1 sq km. Now applied both across space and through time, the clustering technique yields temporally-varying climate regimes predicted by transient runs of the Parallel Climate Model (PCM). Using a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and clustering four fields of significance to the global water cycle (surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and snow depth) from 1871 through 2098, the authors' analysis shows an increase in spatial area occupied by the cluster or climate regime which typifies desert regions (i.e., an increase in desertification) and a decrease in the spatial area occupied by the climate regime typifying winter-time high latitude perma-frost regions. The patterns of cluster changes have been analyzed to understand the predicted variability in the water cycle on global and continental scales. In addition, representative climate regimes were determined by taking three 10-year averages of the fields 100 years apart for northern hemisphere winter (December, January, and February) and summer (June, July, and August). The result is global maps of typical seasonal climate regimes for 100 years in the past, for the present, and for 100 years into the future. Using three-dimensional data or phase space representations of these climate regimes (i.e., the cluster centroids), the authors demonstrate the portion of this phase space occupied by the land surface at all points in space and time

  20. Defining the ecological hydrology of Taiwan Rivers using multivariate statistical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Fi-John; Wu, Tzu-Ching; Tsai, Wen-Ping; Herricks, Edwin E.

    2009-09-01

    SummaryThe identification and verification of ecohydrologic flow indicators has found new support as the importance of ecological flow regimes is recognized in modern water resources management, particularly in river restoration and reservoir management. An ecohydrologic indicator system reflecting the unique characteristics of Taiwan's water resources and hydrology has been developed, the Taiwan ecohydrological indicator system (TEIS). A major challenge for the water resources community is using the TEIS to provide environmental flow rules that improve existing water resources management. This paper examines data from the extensive network of flow monitoring stations in Taiwan using TEIS statistics to define and refine environmental flow options in Taiwan. Multivariate statistical methods were used to examine TEIS statistics for 102 stations representing the geographic and land use diversity of Taiwan. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed high multicollinearity between the TEIS statistics. Watersheds were separated into upper and lower-watershed locations. An analysis of variance indicated significant differences between upstream, more natural, and downstream, more developed, locations in the same basin with hydrologic indicator redundancy in flow change and magnitude statistics. Issues of multicollinearity were examined using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the first three components related to general flow and high/low flow statistics, frequency and time statistics, and quantity statistics. These principle components would explain about 85% of the total variation. A major conclusion is that managers must be aware of differences among basins, as well as differences within basins that will require careful selection of management procedures to achieve needed flow regimes.

  1. Improving short-term forecasting during ramp events by means of Regime-Switching Artificial Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallego, C.; Costa, A.; Cuerva, A.

    2010-09-01

    Since nowadays wind energy can't be neither scheduled nor large-scale storaged, wind power forecasting has been useful to minimize the impact of wind fluctuations. In particular, short-term forecasting (characterised by prediction horizons from minutes to a few days) is currently required by energy producers (in a daily electricity market context) and the TSO's (in order to keep the stability/balance of an electrical system). Within the short-term background, time-series based models (i.e., statistical models) have shown a better performance than NWP models for horizons up to few hours. These models try to learn and replicate the dynamic shown by the time series of a certain variable. When considering the power output of wind farms, ramp events are usually observed, being characterized by a large positive gradient in the time series (ramp-up) or negative (ramp-down) during relatively short time periods (few hours). Ramp events may be motivated by many different causes, involving generally several spatial scales, since the large scale (fronts, low pressure systems) up to the local scale (wind turbine shut-down due to high wind speed, yaw misalignment due to fast changes of wind direction). Hence, the output power may show unexpected dynamics during ramp events depending on the underlying processes; consequently, traditional statistical models considering only one dynamic for the hole power time series may be inappropriate. This work proposes a Regime Switching (RS) model based on Artificial Neural Nets (ANN). The RS-ANN model gathers as many ANN's as different dynamics considered (called regimes); a certain ANN is selected so as to predict the output power, depending on the current regime. The current regime is on-line updated based on a gradient criteria, regarding the past two values of the output power. 3 Regimes are established, concerning ramp events: ramp-up, ramp-down and no-ramp regime. In order to assess the skillness of the proposed RS-ANN model, a single

  2. Second harmonic generation from metallo-dielectric multilayered structures in the plasmonic regime.

    PubMed

    Mattiucci, Nadia; D'Aguanno, Giuseppe; Bloemer, Mark J

    2010-11-08

    We present a theoretical study on second harmonic generation from metallo-dielectric multilayered structures in the plasmonic regime. In particular we analyze the behavior of structures made of Ag (silver) and MgF2 (magnesium-fluoride) due to the straightforward procedure to grow these materials with standard sputtering or thermal evaporation techniques. A systematic study is performed which analyzes four different kinds of elementary cells--namely (Ag/MgF2)N, (MgF2/Ag)N, (Ag/MgF2/Ag)N and (MgF2/Ag/MgF2)N--as function of the number of periods (N) and the thickness of the layers. We predict the conversion efficiency to be up to three orders of magnitude greater than the conversion efficiency found in the non-plasmonic regime and we point out the best geometries to achieve these conversion efficiencies. We also underline the role played by the short-range/long-range plasmons and leaky waves in the generation process. We perform a statistical study to demonstrate the robustness of the SH process in the plasmonic regime against the inevitable variations in the thickness of the layers. Finally, we show that a proper choice of the output medium can further improve the conversion efficiency reaching an enhancement of almost five orders of magnitude with respect to the non plasmonic regime.

  3. Statistical Mechanics of Combinatorial Auctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galla, Tobias; Leone, Michele; Marsili, Matteo; Sellitto, Mauro; Weigt, Martin; Zecchina, Riccardo

    2006-09-01

    Combinatorial auctions are formulated as frustrated lattice gases on sparse random graphs, allowing the determination of the optimal revenue by methods of statistical physics. Transitions between computationally easy and hard regimes are found and interpreted in terms of the geometric structure of the space of solutions. We introduce an iterative algorithm to solve intermediate and large instances, and discuss competing states of optimal revenue and maximal number of satisfied bidders. The algorithm can be generalized to the hard phase and to more sophisticated auction protocols.

  4. Statistical Transmutation in Floquet Driven Optical Lattices.

    PubMed

    Sedrakyan, Tigran A; Galitski, Victor M; Kamenev, Alex

    2015-11-06

    We show that interacting bosons in a periodically driven two dimensional (2D) optical lattice may effectively exhibit fermionic statistics. The phenomenon is similar to the celebrated Tonks-Girardeau regime in 1D. The Floquet band of a driven lattice develops the moat shape, i.e., a minimum along a closed contour in the Brillouin zone. Such degeneracy of the kinetic energy favors fermionic quasiparticles. The statistical transmutation is achieved by the Chern-Simons flux attachment similar to the fractional quantum Hall case. We show that the velocity distribution of the released bosons is a sensitive probe of the fermionic nature of their stationary Floquet state.

  5. Antecedents of Teachers Fostering Effort within Two Different Management Regimes: An Assessment-Based Accountability Regime and Regime without External Pressure on Results

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christophersen, Knut-Andreas; Elstad, Eyvind; Turmo, Are

    2012-01-01

    This article focuses on the comparison of organizational antecedents of teachers' fostering of students' effort in two quite different accountability regimes: one management regime with an external-accountability system and one with no external accountability devices. The methodology involves cross-sectional surveys from two different management…

  6. Features of statistical dynamics in a finite system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, Shiwei; Sakata, Fumihiko; Zhuo, Yizhong

    2002-03-01

    We study features of statistical dynamics in a finite Hamilton system composed of a relevant one degree of freedom coupled to an irrelevant multidegree of freedom system through a weak interaction. Special attention is paid on how the statistical dynamics changes depending on the number of degrees of freedom in the irrelevant system. It is found that the macrolevel statistical aspects are strongly related to an appearance of the microlevel chaotic motion, and a dissipation of the relevant motion is realized passing through three distinct stages: dephasing, statistical relaxation, and equilibrium regimes. It is clarified that the dynamical description and the conventional transport approach provide us with almost the same macrolevel and microlevel mechanisms only for the system with a very large number of irrelevant degrees of freedom. It is also shown that the statistical relaxation in the finite system is an anomalous diffusion and the fluctuation effects have a finite correlation time.

  7. Features of statistical dynamics in a finite system.

    PubMed

    Yan, Shiwei; Sakata, Fumihiko; Zhuo, Yizhong

    2002-03-01

    We study features of statistical dynamics in a finite Hamilton system composed of a relevant one degree of freedom coupled to an irrelevant multidegree of freedom system through a weak interaction. Special attention is paid on how the statistical dynamics changes depending on the number of degrees of freedom in the irrelevant system. It is found that the macrolevel statistical aspects are strongly related to an appearance of the microlevel chaotic motion, and a dissipation of the relevant motion is realized passing through three distinct stages: dephasing, statistical relaxation, and equilibrium regimes. It is clarified that the dynamical description and the conventional transport approach provide us with almost the same macrolevel and microlevel mechanisms only for the system with a very large number of irrelevant degrees of freedom. It is also shown that the statistical relaxation in the finite system is an anomalous diffusion and the fluctuation effects have a finite correlation time.

  8. Abrupt climate-independent fire regime changes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pausas, Juli G.; Keeley, Jon E.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfires have played a determining role in distribution, composition and structure of many ecosystems worldwide and climatic changes are widely considered to be a major driver of future fire regime changes. However, forecasting future climatic change induced impacts on fire regimes will require a clearer understanding of other drivers of abrupt fire regime changes. Here, we focus on evidence from different environmental and temporal settings of fire regimes changes that are not directly attributed to climatic changes. We review key cases of these abrupt fire regime changes at different spatial and temporal scales, including those directly driven (i) by fauna, (ii) by invasive plant species, and (iii) by socio-economic and policy changes. All these drivers might generate non-linear effects of landscape changes in fuel structure; that is, they generate fuel changes that can cross thresholds of landscape continuity, and thus drastically change fire activity. Although climatic changes might contribute to some of these changes, there are also many instances that are not primarily linked to climatic shifts. Understanding the mechanism driving fire regime changes should contribute to our ability to better assess future fire regimes.

  9. Potential vorticity regimes over East Asia during winter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Wenyu; Chen, Ruyan; Wang, Bin; Wright, Jonathon S.; Yang, Zifan; Ma, Wenqian

    2017-02-01

    Nine potential vorticity (PV) regimes over East Asia are identified by applying a Self-Organizing Map and Hierarchical Ascendant Classification regime analysis to the daily PV reanalysis fields on the 300 K isentropic surface for December-March 1948-2014. According to the surface temperature anomalies over East Asia, these nine regimes are further classified into three classes, i.e., cold class (three regimes), warm class (four regimes), and neutral class (two regimes). The PV-based East Asian winter monsoon index (EAWMI) is used to study the relationship between PV distributions and the temperature anomalies. The magnitude of cold (warm) anomalies over the land areas of East Asia increases (decreases) quasi-linearly with the EAWMI. Regression analysis reveals that cold temperature anomalies preferentially occur when the EAWMI exceeds a threshold at ˜0.2 PVU (where 1 PVU ≡ 10-6 m2 K kg-1 s-1). PV inversion uncovers the mechanisms behind the relationships between the PV regimes and surface temperature anomalies and reveals that cold (warm) PV regimes are associated with significant warming (cooling) in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. On average, cold regimes have longer durations than warm regimes. Interclass transition probabilities are much higher for paths from warm/neutral regimes to cold regimes than for paths from cold regimes to warm/neutral regimes. Besides, intraclass transitions are rare within the warm or neutral regimes. The PV regime analysis provides insight into the causes of severe cold spells over East Asia, with blocking circulation patterns identified as the primary factor in initiating and maintaining these cold spells.

  10. Wildland Arson as Clandestine Resource Management: A Space-Time Permutation Analysis and Classification of Informal Fire Management Regimes in Georgia, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coughlan, Michael R.

    2016-05-01

    Forest managers are increasingly recognizing the value of disturbance-based land management techniques such as prescribed burning. Unauthorized, "arson" fires are common in the southeastern United States where a legacy of agrarian cultural heritage persists amidst an increasingly forest-dominated landscape. This paper reexamines unauthorized fire-setting in the state of Georgia, USA from a historical ecology perspective that aims to contribute to historically informed, disturbance-based land management. A space-time permutation analysis is employed to discriminate systematic, management-oriented unauthorized fires from more arbitrary or socially deviant fire-setting behaviors. This paper argues that statistically significant space-time clusters of unauthorized fire occurrence represent informal management regimes linked to the legacy of traditional land management practices. Recent scholarship has pointed out that traditional management has actively promoted sustainable resource use and, in some cases, enhanced biodiversity often through the use of fire. Despite broad-scale displacement of traditional management during the 20th century, informal management practices may locally circumvent more formal and regionally dominant management regimes. Space-time permutation analysis identified 29 statistically significant fire regimes for the state of Georgia. The identified regimes are classified by region and land cover type and their implications for historically informed disturbance-based resource management are discussed.

  11. Wildland Arson as Clandestine Resource Management: A Space-Time Permutation Analysis and Classification of Informal Fire Management Regimes in Georgia, USA.

    PubMed

    Coughlan, Michael R

    2016-05-01

    Forest managers are increasingly recognizing the value of disturbance-based land management techniques such as prescribed burning. Unauthorized, "arson" fires are common in the southeastern United States where a legacy of agrarian cultural heritage persists amidst an increasingly forest-dominated landscape. This paper reexamines unauthorized fire-setting in the state of Georgia, USA from a historical ecology perspective that aims to contribute to historically informed, disturbance-based land management. A space-time permutation analysis is employed to discriminate systematic, management-oriented unauthorized fires from more arbitrary or socially deviant fire-setting behaviors. This paper argues that statistically significant space-time clusters of unauthorized fire occurrence represent informal management regimes linked to the legacy of traditional land management practices. Recent scholarship has pointed out that traditional management has actively promoted sustainable resource use and, in some cases, enhanced biodiversity often through the use of fire. Despite broad-scale displacement of traditional management during the 20th century, informal management practices may locally circumvent more formal and regionally dominant management regimes. Space-time permutation analysis identified 29 statistically significant fire regimes for the state of Georgia. The identified regimes are classified by region and land cover type and their implications for historically informed disturbance-based resource management are discussed.

  12. Social mobility and health in European countries: Does welfare regime type matter?

    PubMed

    Campos-Matos, Inês; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2015-10-01

    Health inequalities pose an important public health challenge in European countries, for which increased social mobility has been suggested as a cause. We sought to describe how the relationship between health inequalities and social mobility varies among welfare regime types in the European region. Data from six rounds of the European Social Survey was analyzed using multilevel statistical techniques, stratified by welfare regime type, including 237,535 individuals from 136 countries. Social mobility among individuals was defined according to the discrepancy between parental and offspring educational attainment. For each welfare regime type, the association between social mobility and self-rated health was examined using odds ratios and risk differences, controlling for parental education. Upwardly mobile individuals had between 23 and 44% lower odds of reporting bad or very bad self-rated health when compared to those who remained stable. On an absolute scale, former USSR countries showed the biggest and only significant differences for upward movement, while Scandinavian countries showed the smallest. Downward social mobility tended to be associated with worse health, but the results were less consistent. Upward social mobility is associated with worse health in all European welfare regime types. However, in Scandinavian countries the association of upward mobility was smaller, suggesting that the Nordic model is more effective in mitigating the impact of social mobility on health and/or of health on mobility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Critical slowing down associated with regime shifts in the US housing market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, James Peng Lung; Cheong, Siew Siew Ann

    2014-02-01

    Complex systems are described by a large number of variables with strong and nonlinear interactions. Such systems frequently undergo regime shifts. Combining insights from bifurcation theory in nonlinear dynamics and the theory of critical transitions in statistical physics, we know that critical slowing down and critical fluctuations occur close to such regime shifts. In this paper, we show how universal precursors expected from such critical transitions can be used to forecast regime shifts in the US housing market. In the housing permit, volume of homes sold and percentage of homes sold for gain data, we detected strong early warning signals associated with a sequence of coupled regime shifts, starting from a Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and ending with the Subprime Crisis in 2007-2008. Weaker signals of critical slowing down were also detected in the US housing market data during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2000-2001 Technology Bubble Crisis. Backed by various macroeconomic data, we propose a scenario whereby hot money flowing back into the US during the Asian Financial Crisis fueled the Technology Bubble. When the Technology Bubble collapsed in 2000-2001, the hot money then flowed into the US housing market, triggering the Subprime Mortgage Loans transition in 2003-2004 and an ensuing sequence of transitions. We showed how this sequence of couple transitions unfolded in space and in time over the whole of US.

  14. On the Asymptotic Regimes and the Strongly Stratified Limit of Rotating Boussinesq Equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Babin, A.; Mahalov, A.; Nicolaenko, B.; Zhou, Y.

    1997-01-01

    Asymptotic regimes of geophysical dynamics are described for different Burger number limits. Rotating Boussinesq equations are analyzed in the asymptotic limit, of strong stratification in the Burger number of order one situation as well as in the asymptotic regime of strong stratification and weak rotation. It is shown that in both regimes horizontally averaged buoyancy variable is an adiabatic invariant for the full Boussinesq system. Spectral phase shift corrections to the buoyancy time scale associated with vertical shearing of this invariant are deduced. Statistical dephasing effects induced by turbulent processes on inertial-gravity waves are evidenced. The 'split' of the energy transfer of the vortical and the wave components is established in the Craya-Herring cyclic basis. As the Burger number increases from zero to infinity, we demonstrate gradual unfreezing of energy cascades for ageostrophic dynamics. The energy spectrum and the anisotropic spectral eddy viscosity are deduced with an explicit dependence on the anisotropic rotation/stratification time scale which depends on the vertical aspect ratio parameter. Intermediate asymptotic regime corresponding to strong stratification and weak rotation is analyzed where the effects of weak rotation are accounted for by an asymptotic expansion with full control (saturation) of vertical shearing. The regularizing effect of weak rotation differs from regularizations based on vertical viscosity. Two scalar prognostic equations for ageostrophic components (divergent velocity potential and geostrophic departure ) are obtained.

  15. Production of exotic nuclei in projectile fragmentation at relativistic and Fermi energies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogul, R.; Ergun, A.; Buyukcizmeci, N.

    2017-02-01

    Isotopic distributions of projectile fragmentation in peripheral heavy ion collisions of 86Kr on 112Sn are calculated within the statistical multifragmentation model. Obtained data are compared to the experimental cross section measurements. We show the enhancement in the production of neutron-rich isotopes close to the projectile, observed in the experiments. Our results show the universality of the limitation of the excitation energy induced in the projectile residues.

  16. The New English Quality Assurance Regime

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2011-01-01

    England is developing a new quality assurance regime that will come into effect in October 2011. A new funding regime will operate from the following year, together with new rules to ease the participation of private higher education providers. This article describes and analyses the new quality and funding regimes. It argues that the greater…

  17. Two competing species in super-diffusive dynamical regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Cognata, A.; Valenti, D.; Spagnolo, B.; Dubkov, A. A.

    2010-09-01

    The dynamics of two competing species within the framework of the generalized Lotka-Volterra equations, in the presence of multiplicative α-stable Lévy noise sources and a random time dependent interaction parameter, is studied. The species dynamics is characterized by two different dynamical regimes, exclusion of one species and coexistence of both, depending on the values of the interaction parameter, which obeys a Langevin equation with a periodically fluctuating bistable potential and an additive α-stable Lévy noise. The stochastic resonance phenomenon is analyzed for noise sources asymmetrically distributed. Finally, the effects of statistical dependence between multiplicative noise and additive noise on the dynamics of the two species are studied.

  18. Characterization of fire regime in Sardinia (Italy)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, V. M.; Salis, M.; Mastinu, S.; Masala, F.; Sirca, C.; Spano, D.

    2012-12-01

    In the last decades, a number of Authors highlighted the crucial role of forest fires within Mediterranean ecosystems, with impacts both negative and positive on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In Sardinia (Italy), the second largest island of the Mediterranean Basin, forest fires are perceived as one of the main environmental and social problems, and data are showing that the situation is worsening especially within the rural-urban peripheries and the increasing number of very large forest fires. The need for information concerning forest fire regime has been pointed out by several Authors (e.g. Rollins et al., 2002), who also emphasized the importance of understanding the factors (such as weather/climate, socio-economic, and land use) that determine spatial and temporal fire patterns. These would be used not only as a baseline to predict the climate change effect on forest fires, but also as a fire management and mitigation strategy. The main aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the last three decades (1980-2010). For the analyzed period, fire statistics were provided by the Sardinian Forest Service (CFVA - Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale), while weather data for eight weather stations were obtained from the web site www.tutiempo.it. For each station, daily series of precipitation, mean, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity and wind speed were available. The present study firstly analyzed fire statistics (burned area and number of fires) according to the main fire regime characteristics (seasonality, fire return interval, fire incidence, fire size distribution). Then, fire and weather daily values were averaged to obtain monthly, seasonal and annual values, and

  19. Regimes of Coriolis-Centrifugal Convection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, Susanne; Aurnou, Jonathan M.

    2018-05-01

    Centrifugal buoyancy affects all rotating turbulent convection phenomena, but is conventionally ignored in rotating convection studies. Here, we include centrifugal buoyancy to investigate what we call Coriolis-centrifugal convection (C3 ), characterizing two so far unexplored regimes, one where the flow is in quasicyclostrophic balance (QC regime) and another where the flow is in a triple balance between pressure gradient, Coriolis and centrifugal buoyancy forces (CC regime). The transition to centrifugally dominated dynamics occurs when the Froude number Fr equals the radius-to-height aspect ratio γ . Hence, turbulent convection experiments with small γ may encounter centrifugal effects at lower Fr than traditionally expected. Further, we show analytically that the direct effect of centrifugal buoyancy yields a reduction of the Nusselt number Nu. However, indirectly, it can cause a simultaneous increase of the viscous dissipation and thereby Nu through a change of the flow morphology. These direct and indirect effects yield a net Nu suppression in the CC regime and a net Nu enhancement in the QC regime. In addition, we demonstrate that C3 may provide a simplified, yet self-consistent, model system for tornadoes, hurricanes, and typhoons.

  20. Regimes of Coriolis-Centrifugal Convection.

    PubMed

    Horn, Susanne; Aurnou, Jonathan M

    2018-05-18

    Centrifugal buoyancy affects all rotating turbulent convection phenomena, but is conventionally ignored in rotating convection studies. Here, we include centrifugal buoyancy to investigate what we call Coriolis-centrifugal convection (C^{3}), characterizing two so far unexplored regimes, one where the flow is in quasicyclostrophic balance (QC regime) and another where the flow is in a triple balance between pressure gradient, Coriolis and centrifugal buoyancy forces (CC regime). The transition to centrifugally dominated dynamics occurs when the Froude number Fr equals the radius-to-height aspect ratio γ. Hence, turbulent convection experiments with small γ may encounter centrifugal effects at lower Fr than traditionally expected. Further, we show analytically that the direct effect of centrifugal buoyancy yields a reduction of the Nusselt number Nu. However, indirectly, it can cause a simultaneous increase of the viscous dissipation and thereby Nu through a change of the flow morphology. These direct and indirect effects yield a net Nu suppression in the CC regime and a net Nu enhancement in the QC regime. In addition, we demonstrate that C^{3} may provide a simplified, yet self-consistent, model system for tornadoes, hurricanes, and typhoons.

  1. How fire history, fire suppression practices and climate change affect wildfire regimes in Mediterranean landscapes.

    PubMed

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  2. How Fire History, Fire Suppression Practices and Climate Change Affect Wildfire Regimes in Mediterranean Landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Brotons, Lluís; Aquilué, Núria; de Cáceres, Miquel; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Fall, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Available data show that future changes in global change drivers may lead to an increasing impact of fires on terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Yet, fire regime changes in highly humanised fire-prone regions are difficult to predict because fire effects may be heavily mediated by human activities We investigated the role of fire suppression strategies in synergy with climate change on the resulting fire regimes in Catalonia (north-eastern Spain). We used a spatially-explicit fire-succession model at the landscape level to test whether the use of different firefighting opportunities related to observed reductions in fire spread rates and effective fire sizes, and hence changes in the fire regime. We calibrated this model with data from a period with weak firefighting and later assess the potential for suppression strategies to modify fire regimes expected under different levels of climate change. When comparing simulations with observed fire statistics from an eleven-year period with firefighting strategies in place, our results showed that, at least in two of the three sub-regions analysed, the observed fire regime could not be reproduced unless taking into account the effects of fire suppression. Fire regime descriptors were highly dependent on climate change scenarios, with a general trend, under baseline scenarios without fire suppression, to large-scale increases in area burnt. Fire suppression strategies had a strong capacity to compensate for climate change effects. However, strong active fire suppression was necessary to accomplish such compensation, while more opportunistic fire suppression strategies derived from recent fire history only had a variable, but generally weak, potential for compensation of enhanced fire impacts under climate change. The concept of fire regime in the Mediterranean is probably better interpreted as a highly dynamic process in which the main determinants of fire are rapidly modified by changes in landscape, climate and

  3. The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models.

    PubMed

    Lovejoy, S; de Lima, M I P

    2015-07-01

    Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30-100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate "macroweather" regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spite of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be "homogenized" by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.

  4. Statistical properties of radiation from VUV and X-ray free electron laser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saldin, E. L.; Schneidmiller, E. A.; Yurkov, M. V.

    1998-03-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the statistical properties of the radiation from a self-amplified spontaneous emission (SASE) free electron laser operating in linear and nonlinear mode. The investigation has been performed in a one-dimensional approximation assuming the electron pulse length to be much larger than a coherence length of the radiation. The following statistical properties of the SASE FEL radiation have been studied in detail: time and spectral field correlations, distribution of the fluctuations of the instantaneous radiation power, distribution of the energy in the electron bunch, distribution of the radiation energy after the monochromator installed at the FEL amplifier exit and radiation spectrum. The linear high gain limit is studied analytically. It is shown that the radiation from a SASE FEL operating in the linear regime possesses all the features corresponding to completely chaotic polarized radiation. A detailed study of statistical properties of the radiation from a SASE FEL operating in linear and nonlinear regime has been performed by means of time-dependent simulation codes. All numerical results presented in the paper have been calculated for the 70 nm SASE FEL at the TESLA Test Facility being under construction at DESY.

  5. A Regime Diagram for Subduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stegman, D. R.; Farrington, R.; Capitanio, F. A.; Schellart, W. P.

    2009-12-01

    Regime diagrams and associated scaling relations have profoundly influenced our understanding of planetary dynamics. Previous regime diagrams characterized the regimes of stagnant-lid, small viscosity contrast, transitional, and no-convection for temperature-dependent (Moresi and Solomatov, 1995), and non-linear power law rheologies (Solomatov and Moresi, 1997) as well as stagnant-lid, sluggish-lid, and mobile-lid regimes once the finite strength of rock was considered (Moresi and Solomatov, 1998). Scalings derived from such models have been the cornerstone for parameterized models of thermal evolution of rocky planets and icy moons for the past decade. While such a theory can predict the tectonic state of a planetary body, it is still rather incomplete in regards to predicting tectonics. For example, the mobile-lid regime is unspecific as to how continuous lithospheric recycling should occur on a terrestrial planet. Towards this goal, Gerya et al., (2008) advanced a new regime diagram aiming to characterize when subduction would manifest itself as a one-sided or two-sided downwelling and either symmetric or asymmetric. Here, we present a regime diagram for the case of a single-sided, asymmetric type of subduction (most Earth-like type). Using a 3-D numerical model of a free subduction, we describe a total of 5 different styles of subduction that can possibly occur. Each style is distinguished by its upper mantle slab morphology resulting from the sinking kinematics. We provide movies to illustrate the different styles and their progressive time-evolution. In each regime, subduction is accommodated by a combination of plate advance and slab rollback, with associated motions of forward plate velocity and trench retreat, respectively. We demonstrate that the preferred subduction mode depends upon two essential controlling factors: 1) buoyancy of the downgoing plate and 2) strength of plate in resisting bending at the hinge. We propose that a variety of subduction

  6. Full counting statistics of a charge pump in the Coulomb blockade regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreev, A. V.; Mishchenko, E. G.

    2001-12-01

    We study full charge counting statistics (FCCS) of a charge pump based on a nearly open single electron transistor. The problem is mapped onto an exactly soluble problem of a nonequilibrium g=1/2 Luttinger liquid with an impurity. We obtain an analytic expression for the generating function of the transmitted charge for an arbitrary pumping strength. Although this model contains fractionally charged excitations only integer transmitted charges can be observed. In the weak pumping limit FCCS correspond to a Poissonian transmission of particles with charge e*=e/2 from which all events with odd numbers of transferred particles are excluded.

  7. Examination Regimes and Student Achievement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cosentino de Cohen, Clemencia

    2010-01-01

    Examination regimes at the end of secondary school vary greatly intra- and cross-nationally, and in recent years have undergone important reforms often geared towards increasing student achievement. This research presents a comparative analysis of the relationship between examination regimes and student achievement in the OECD. Using a micro…

  8. The initial regime of drop coalescence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anthony, Christopher; Harris, Michael; Basaran, Osman

    2017-11-01

    Drop coalescence plays a key role in both industry and nature. Consequently, study of the phenomenon has been the focus of numerous experimental, computational and theoretical works to date. In coalescence, two drops come into contact and a liquid bridge forms between them. As time advances, this bridge grows from microscopic to macroscopic scales. Despite the large volume of work dedicated to this problem, currently experiment, theory, and computation are not in perfect agreement with respect to the earliest times following the initial contact of the drops. Experiments report an initial regime where the radius of the connecting bridge grows linearly in time before a transition to either a Stokes regime or an inertial regime where either viscous or inertial forces balance capillary force. In the initial linear regime, referred to as the inertially-limited viscous regime, all three forces are thought to be important. This is in contrast to theory which predicts that all coalescence events begin in the Stokes regime. We use high accuracy numerical simulation to show that the existing discrepancy in the literature can be resolved by paying careful attention to the initial conditions that set the shape and size of the bridge connecting the two drops.

  9. A statistical physics viewpoint on the dynamics of the bouncing ball

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chastaing, Jean-Yonnel; Géminard, Jean-Christophe; Bertin, Eric

    2016-06-01

    We compute, in a statistical physics perspective, the dynamics of a bouncing ball maintained in a chaotic regime thanks to collisions with a plate experiencing an aperiodic vibration. We analyze in details the energy exchanges between the bead and the vibrating plate, and show that the coupling between the bead and the plate can be modeled in terms of both a dissipative process and an injection mechanism by an energy reservoir. An analysis of the injection statistics in terms of fluctuation relation is also provided.

  10. Hydrological regime modifications induced by climate change in Mediterranean area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pumo, Dario; Caracciolo, Domenico; Viola, Francesco; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

    2015-04-01

    The knowledge of river flow regimes has a capital importance for a variety of practical applications, in water resource management, including optimal and sustainable use. Hydrological regime is highly dependent on climatic factors, among which the most important is surely the precipitation, in terms of frequency, seasonal distribution and intensity of rainfall events. The streamflow frequency regime of river basins are often summarized by flow duration curves (FDCs), that offer a simple and comprehensive graphical view of the overall historical variability associated with streamflow, and characterize the ability of the basin to provide flows of various magnitudes. Climate change is likely to lead shifts in the hydrological regime, and, consequently, in the FDCs. Staring from this premise, the primary objective of the present study is to explore the effects of potential climate changes on the hydrological regime of some small Mediterranean basins. To this aim it is here used a recent hydrological model, the ModABa model (MODel for Annual flow duration curves assessment in ephemeral small BAsins), for the probabilistic characterization of the daily streamflows in small catchments. The model has been calibrated and successively validated in a unique small catchment, where it has shown a satisfactory accuracy in reproducing the empirical FDC starting from easily derivable parameters arising from basic ecohydrological knowledge of the basin and commonly available climatic data such as daily precipitation and temperatures. Thus, this work also represents a first attempt to apply the ModABa to basins different from that used for its preliminary design in order to testing its generality. Different case studies are selected within the Sicily region; the model is first calibrated at the sites and then forced by future climatic scenarios, highlighting the principal differences emerging from the current scenario and future FDCs. The future climate scenarios are generated using

  11. Uncondensed atoms in the regime of velocity-selective coherent population trapping

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Il’ichov, L. V.; Tomilin, V. A., E-mail: 8342tomilin@mail.ru

    2016-01-15

    We consider the model of a Bose condensate in the regime of velocity-selective coherent population trapping. As a result of interaction between particles, some fraction of atoms is outside the condensate, remaining in the coherent trapping state. These atoms are involved in brief events of intense interaction with external resonant electromagnetic fields. Intense induced and spontaneous transitions are accompanied by the exchange of momenta between atoms and radiation, which is manifested as migration of atoms in the velocity space. The rate of such migration is calculated. A nonlinear kinetic equation for the many-particle statistical operator for uncondensed atoms is derivedmore » under the assumption that correlations of atoms with different momenta are insignificant. The structure of its steady-state solution leads to certain conclusions about the above-mentioned migration pattern taking the Bose statistics into consideration. With allowance for statistical effects, we derive nonlinear integral equations for frequencies controlling the migration. The results of numerical solution of these equations are represented in the weak interatomic interaction approximation.« less

  12. Stochastic Parametrisations and Regime Behaviour of Atmospheric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnold, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2013-04-01

    The presence of regimes is a characteristic of non-linear, chaotic systems (Lorenz, 2006). In the atmosphere, regimes emerge as familiar circulation patterns such as the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian Blocking events. In recent years there has been much interest in the problem of identifying and studying atmospheric regimes (Solomon et al, 2007). In particular, how do these regimes respond to an external forcing such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? The importance of regimes in observed trends over the past 50-100 years indicates that in order to predict anthropogenic climate change, our climate models must be able to represent accurately natural circulation regimes, their statistics and variability. It is well established that representing model uncertainty as well as initial condition uncertainty is important for reliable weather forecasts (Palmer, 2001). In particular, stochastic parametrisation schemes have been shown to improve the skill of weather forecast models (e.g. Berner et al., 2009; Frenkel et al., 2012; Palmer et al., 2009). It is possible that including stochastic physics as a representation of model uncertainty could also be beneficial in climate modelling, enabling the simulator to explore larger regions of the climate attractor including other flow regimes. An alternative representation of model uncertainty is a perturbed parameter scheme, whereby physical parameters in subgrid parametrisation schemes are perturbed about their optimal value. Perturbing parameters gives a greater control over the ensemble than multi-model or multiparametrisation ensembles, and has been used as a representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction (Stainforth et al., 2005; Rougier et al., 2009). We investigate the effect of including representations of model uncertainty on the regime behaviour of a simulator. A simple chaotic model of the atmosphere, the Lorenz '96 system, is used to study

  13. Chi-squared and C statistic minimization for low count per bin data. [sampling in X ray astronomy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nousek, John A.; Shue, David R.

    1989-01-01

    Results are presented from a computer simulation comparing two statistical fitting techniques on data samples with large and small counts per bin; the results are then related specifically to X-ray astronomy. The Marquardt and Powell minimization techniques are compared by using both to minimize the chi-squared statistic. In addition, Cash's C statistic is applied, with Powell's method, and it is shown that the C statistic produces better fits in the low-count regime than chi-squared.

  14. Rare-event statistics and modular invariance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nechaev, S. K.; Polovnikov, K.

    2018-01-01

    Simple geometric arguments based on constructing the Euclid orchard are presented, which explain the equivalence of various types of distributions that result from rare-event statistics. In particular, the spectral density of the exponentially weighted ensemble of linear polymer chains is examined for its number-theoretic properties. It can be shown that the eigenvalue statistics of the corresponding adjacency matrices in the sparse regime show a peculiar hierarchical structure and are described by the popcorn (Thomae) function discontinuous in the dense set of rational numbers. Moreover, the spectral edge density distribution exhibits Lifshitz tails, reminiscent of 1D Anderson localization. Finally, a continuous approximation for the popcorn function is suggested based on the Dedekind η-function, and the hierarchical ultrametric structure of the popcorn-like distributions is demonstrated to be related to hidden SL(2,Z) modular symmetry.

  15. Competitive agents in a market: Statistical physics of the minority game

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sherrington, David

    2007-10-01

    A brief review is presented of the minority game, a simple frustrated many-body system stimulated by considerations of a market of competitive speculative agents. Its cooperative behaviour exhibits phase transitions and both ergodic and non-ergodic regimes. It provides novel challenges to statistical physics, reminiscent of those of mean-field spin glasses.

  16. Statistical physics of the symmetric group.

    PubMed

    Williams, Mobolaji

    2017-04-01

    Ordered chains (such as chains of amino acids) are ubiquitous in biological cells, and these chains perform specific functions contingent on the sequence of their components. Using the existence and general properties of such sequences as a theoretical motivation, we study the statistical physics of systems whose state space is defined by the possible permutations of an ordered list, i.e., the symmetric group, and whose energy is a function of how certain permutations deviate from some chosen correct ordering. Such a nonfactorizable state space is quite different from the state spaces typically considered in statistical physics systems and consequently has novel behavior in systems with interacting and even noninteracting Hamiltonians. Various parameter choices of a mean-field model reveal the system to contain five different physical regimes defined by two transition temperatures, a triple point, and a quadruple point. Finally, we conclude by discussing how the general analysis can be extended to state spaces with more complex combinatorial properties and to other standard questions of statistical mechanics models.

  17. Statistical physics of the symmetric group

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Mobolaji

    2017-04-01

    Ordered chains (such as chains of amino acids) are ubiquitous in biological cells, and these chains perform specific functions contingent on the sequence of their components. Using the existence and general properties of such sequences as a theoretical motivation, we study the statistical physics of systems whose state space is defined by the possible permutations of an ordered list, i.e., the symmetric group, and whose energy is a function of how certain permutations deviate from some chosen correct ordering. Such a nonfactorizable state space is quite different from the state spaces typically considered in statistical physics systems and consequently has novel behavior in systems with interacting and even noninteracting Hamiltonians. Various parameter choices of a mean-field model reveal the system to contain five different physical regimes defined by two transition temperatures, a triple point, and a quadruple point. Finally, we conclude by discussing how the general analysis can be extended to state spaces with more complex combinatorial properties and to other standard questions of statistical mechanics models.

  18. A κ-generalized statistical mechanics approach to income analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2009-02-01

    This paper proposes a statistical mechanics approach to the analysis of income distribution and inequality. A new distribution function, having its roots in the framework of κ-generalized statistics, is derived that is particularly suitable for describing the whole spectrum of incomes, from the low-middle income region up to the high income Pareto power-law regime. Analytical expressions for the shape, moments and some other basic statistical properties are given. Furthermore, several well-known econometric tools for measuring inequality, which all exist in a closed form, are considered. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the data on personal income for the United States, and the analysis of inequality performed in terms of its parameters is revealed as very powerful.

  19. Changing world extreme temperature statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finkel, J. M.; Katz, J. I.

    2018-04-01

    We use the Global Historical Climatology Network--daily database to calculate a nonparametric statistic that describes the rate at which all-time daily high and low temperature records have been set in nine geographic regions (continents or major portions of continents) during periods mostly from the mid-20th Century to the present. This statistic was defined in our earlier work on temperature records in the 48 contiguous United States. In contrast to this earlier work, we find that in every region except North America all-time high records were set at a rate significantly (at least $3\\sigma$) higher than in the null hypothesis of a stationary climate. Except in Antarctica, all-time low records were set at a rate significantly lower than in the null hypothesis. In Europe, North Africa and North Asia the rate of setting new all-time highs increased suddenly in the 1990's, suggesting a change in regional climate regime; in most other regions there was a steadier increase.

  20. Spatial Statistical Network Models for Stream and River Temperature in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed, USA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional temperature models are needed for characterizing and mapping stream thermal regimes, establishing reference conditions, predicting future impacts and identifying critical thermal refugia. Spatial statistical models have been developed to improve regression modeling techn...

  1. Snowpack Regimes of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trujillo, E.; Molotch, N. P.

    2011-12-01

    Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant role in the water, energy, carbon and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments, and snow accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here, we characterize the snow water equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at over seven hundred snow pillow stations in the Western U.S., focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the cross relationships between the different metrics. The metrics include the initial snow accumulation and meltout dates, the peak accumulation and date of peak, the time from initial accumulation to peak, the time from peak to meltout, the accumulation and melt slopes, and the daily rates of accumulation and melt. Three distinct regimes emerge from these results: a maritime, an intermediate (intercontinental), and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days, while on the other hand; the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intercontinental regime lies in between. Several other differences are identified between the metrics of the SWE curve in these regimes. The regions that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intercontinental regime includes the Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Idaho Batholith, the Northern Rockies and the Blue Mountains. Lastly, the Continental regime includes the Middle and Southern

  2. Life history theory predicts fish assemblage response to hydrologic regimes.

    PubMed

    Mims, Meryl C; Olden, Julian D

    2012-01-01

    The hydrologic regime is regarded as the primary driver of freshwater ecosystems, structuring the physical habitat template, providing connectivity, framing biotic interactions, and ultimately selecting for specific life histories of aquatic organisms. In the present study, we tested ecological theory predicting directional relationships between major dimensions of the flow regime and life history composition of fish assemblages in perennial free-flowing rivers throughout the continental United States. Using long-term discharge records and fish trait and survey data for 109 stream locations, we found that 11 out of 18 relationships (61%) tested between the three life history strategies (opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium) and six hydrologic metrics (two each describing flow variability, predictability, and seasonality) were statistically significant (P < or = 0.05) according to quantile regression. Our results largely support a priori hypotheses of relationships between specific flow indices and relative prevalence of fish life history strategies, with 82% of all significant relationships observed supporting predictions from life history theory. Specifically, we found that (1) opportunistic strategists were positively related to measures of flow variability and negatively related to predictability and seasonality, (2) periodic strategists were positively related to high flow seasonality and negatively related to variability, and (3) the equilibrium strategists were negatively related to flow variability and positively related to predictability. Our study provides important empirical evidence illustrating the value of using life history theory to understand both the patterns and processes by which fish assemblage structure is shaped by adaptation to natural regimes of variability, predictability, and seasonality of critical flow events over broad biogeographic scales.

  3. Avalanche Statistics Identify Intrinsic Stellar Processes near Criticality in KIC 8462852

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheikh, Mohammed A.; Weaver, Richard L.; Dahmen, Karin A.

    2016-12-01

    The star KIC8462852 (Tabby's star) has shown anomalous drops in light flux. We perform a statistical analysis of the more numerous smaller dimming events by using methods found useful for avalanches in ferromagnetism and plastic flow. Scaling exponents for avalanche statistics and temporal profiles of the flux during the dimming events are close to mean field predictions. Scaling collapses suggest that this star may be near a nonequilibrium critical point. The large events are interpreted as avalanches marked by modified dynamics, limited by the system size, and not within the scaling regime.

  4. Snowpack regimes of the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trujillo, Ernesto; Molotch, Noah P.

    2014-07-01

    Snow accumulation and melt patterns play a significant role in the water, energy, carbon, and nutrient cycles in the montane environments of the Western United States. Recent studies have illustrated that changes in the snow/rainfall apportionments and snow accumulation and melt patterns may occur as a consequence of changes in climate in the region. In order to understand how these changes may affect the snow regimes of the region, the current characteristics of the snow accumulation and melt patterns must be identified. Here we characterize the snow water equivalent (SWE) curve formed by the daily SWE values at 766 snow pillow stations in the Western United States, focusing on several metrics of the yearly SWE curves and the relationships between the different metrics. The metrics are the initial snow accumulation and snow disappearance dates, the peak snow accumulation and date of peak, the length of the snow accumulation season, the length of the snowmelt season, and the snow accumulation and snowmelt slopes. Three snow regimes emerge from these results: a maritime, an intermountain, and a continental regime. The maritime regime is characterized by higher maximum snow accumulations reaching 300 cm and shorter accumulation periods of less than 220 days. Conversely, the continental regime is characterized by lower maximum accumulations below 200 cm and longer accumulation periods reaching over 260 days. The intermountain regime lies in between. The regions that show the characteristics of the maritime regime include the Cascade Mountains, the Klamath Mountains, and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. The intermountain regime includes the Eastern Cascades slopes and foothills, the Blue Mountains, Northern and Central basins and ranges, the Columbia Mountains/Northern Rockies, the Idaho Batholith, and the Canadian Rockies. Lastly, the continental regime includes the Middle and Southern Rockies, and the Wasatch and Uinta Mountains. The implications of snow regime

  5. Chapter 5. Borderlands fire regimes

    Treesearch

    Margot Wilkinson-Kaye; Thomas Swetnam; Christopher R. Baisan

    2006-01-01

    Fire is a keystone process in most natural, terrestrial ecosystems. The vital role that fire plays in controlling the structure of an ecosystem underscores the need for us to increase our knowledge of past and current fire regimes (Morgan and others 1994). Dendrochronological reconstructions of fire histories provide descriptions of past fire regimes across a range of...

  6. The joint space-time statistics of macroweather precipitation, space-time statistical factorization and macroweather models

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Lovejoy, S., E-mail: lovejoy@physics.mcgill.ca; Lima, M. I. P. de; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Coimbra, 3030-788 Coimbra

    2015-07-15

    Over the range of time scales from about 10 days to 30–100 years, in addition to the familiar weather and climate regimes, there is an intermediate “macroweather” regime characterized by negative temporal fluctuation exponents: implying that fluctuations tend to cancel each other out so that averages tend to converge. We show theoretically and numerically that macroweather precipitation can be modeled by a stochastic weather-climate model (the Climate Extended Fractionally Integrated Flux, model, CEFIF) first proposed for macroweather temperatures and we show numerically that a four parameter space-time CEFIF model can approximately reproduce eight or so empirical space-time exponents. In spitemore » of this success, CEFIF is theoretically and numerically difficult to manage. We therefore propose a simplified stochastic model in which the temporal behavior is modeled as a fractional Gaussian noise but the spatial behaviour as a multifractal (climate) cascade: a spatial extension of the recently introduced ScaLIng Macroweather Model, SLIMM. Both the CEFIF and this spatial SLIMM model have a property often implicitly assumed by climatologists that climate statistics can be “homogenized” by normalizing them with the standard deviation of the anomalies. Physically, it means that the spatial macroweather variability corresponds to different climate zones that multiplicatively modulate the local, temporal statistics. This simplified macroweather model provides a framework for macroweather forecasting that exploits the system's long range memory and spatial correlations; for it, the forecasting problem has been solved. We test this factorization property and the model with the help of three centennial, global scale precipitation products that we analyze jointly in space and in time.« less

  7. Unifying quantum heat transfer in a nonequilibrium spin-boson model with full counting statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Chen; Ren, Jie; Cao, Jianshu

    2017-02-01

    To study the full counting statistics of quantum heat transfer in a driven nonequilibrium spin-boson model, we develop a generalized nonequilibrium polaron-transformed Redfield equation with an auxiliary counting field. This enables us to study the impact of qubit-bath coupling ranging from weak to strong regimes. Without external modulations, we observe maximal values of both steady-state heat flux and noise power in moderate coupling regimes, below which we find that these two transport quantities are enhanced by the finite-qubit-energy bias. With external modulations, the geometric-phase-induced heat flux shows a monotonic decrease upon increasing the qubit-bath coupling at zero qubit energy bias (without bias). While under the finite-qubit-energy bias (with bias), the geometric-phase-induced heat flux exhibits an interesting reversal behavior in the strong coupling regime. Our results unify the seemingly contradictory results in weak and strong qubit-bath coupling regimes and provide detailed dissections for the quantum fluctuation of nonequilibrium heat transfer.

  8. Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balashov, Nikolay V.; Thompson, Anne M.; Young, George S.

    2017-01-01

    The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

  9. Identifying optimal dosage regimes under safety constraints: An application to long term opioid treatment of chronic pain.

    PubMed

    Laber, Eric B; Wu, Fan; Munera, Catherine; Lipkovich, Ilya; Colucci, Salvatore; Ripa, Steve

    2018-04-30

    There is growing interest and investment in precision medicine as a means to provide the best possible health care. A treatment regime formalizes precision medicine as a sequence of decision rules, one per clinical intervention period, that specify if, when and how current treatment should be adjusted in response to a patient's evolving health status. It is standard to define a regime as optimal if, when applied to a population of interest, it maximizes the mean of some desirable clinical outcome, such as efficacy. However, in many clinical settings, a high-quality treatment regime must balance multiple competing outcomes; eg, when a high dose is associated with substantial symptom reduction but a greater risk of an adverse event. We consider the problem of estimating the most efficacious treatment regime subject to constraints on the risk of adverse events. We combine nonparametric Q-learning with policy-search to estimate a high-quality yet parsimonious treatment regime. This estimator applies to both observational and randomized data, as well as settings with variable, outcome-dependent follow-up, mixed treatment types, and multiple time points. This work is motivated by and framed in the context of dosing for chronic pain; however, the proposed framework can be applied generally to estimate a treatment regime which maximizes the mean of one primary outcome subject to constraints on one or more secondary outcomes. We illustrate the proposed method using data pooled from 5 open-label flexible dosing clinical trials for chronic pain. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

    PubMed

    Hempson, Tessa N; Graham, Nicholas A J; MacNeil, M Aaron; Hoey, Andrew S; Wilson, Shaun K

    2018-01-01

    Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological

  11. Full counting statistics and shot noise of cotunneling in quantum dots and single-molecule transistors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaasbjerg, Kristen; Belzig, Wolfgang

    2015-06-01

    We develop a conceptually simple scheme based on a master-equation approach to evaluate the full-counting statistics (FCS) of elastic and inelastic off-resonant tunneling (cotunneling) in quantum dots (QDs) and molecules. We demonstrate the method by showing that it reproduces known results for the FCS and shot noise in the cotunneling regime. For a QD with an excited state, we obtain an analytic expression for the cumulant generating function (CGF) taking into account elastic and inelastic cotunneling. From the CGF we find that the shot noise above the inelastic threshold in the cotunneling regime is inherently super-Poissonian when external relaxation is weak. Furthermore, a complete picture of the shot noise across the different transport regimes is given. In the case where the excited state is a blocking state, strongly enhanced shot noise is predicted both in the resonant and cotunneling regimes.

  12. Bed load transport over a broad range of timescales: Determination of three regimes of fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Hongbo; Heyman, Joris; Fu, Xudong; Mettra, Francois; Ancey, Christophe; Parker, Gary

    2014-12-01

    This paper describes the relationship between the statistics of bed load transport flux and the timescale over which it is sampled. A stochastic formulation is developed for the probability distribution function of bed load transport flux, based on the Ancey et al. (2008) theory. An analytical solution for the variance of bed load transport flux over differing sampling timescales is presented. The solution demonstrates that the timescale dependence of the variance of bed load transport flux reduces to a three-regime relation demarcated by an intermittency timescale (tI) and a memory timescale (tc). As the sampling timescale increases, this variance passes through an intermittent stage (≪tI), an invariant stage (tI < t < tc), and a memoryless stage (≫ tc). We propose a dimensionless number (Ra) to represent the relative strength of fluctuation, which provides a common ground for comparison of fluctuation strength among different experiments, as well as different sampling timescales for each experiment. Our analysis indicates that correlated motion and the discrete nature of bed load particles are responsible for this three-regime behavior. We use the data from three experiments with high temporal resolution of bed load transport flux to validate the proposed three-regime behavior. The theoretical solution for the variance agrees well with all three sets of experimental data. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the observed fluctuations of bed load transport flux over monosize/multiple-size grain beds, to the characterization of an inherent connection between short-term measurements and long-term statistics, and to the design of appropriate sampling strategies for bed load transport flux.

  13. Physical Activity Associated with Prayer Regimes Improves Standing Dynamic Balance of Healthy People

    PubMed Central

    AlAbdulwahab, Sami Saleh; Kachanathu, Shaji John; Oluseye, Kamaldeen

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] Preparing for prayers, practicing religious meditation and performing prayers are believed to stimulate the visual, vestibular and somatosensory systems, which provide the sensory information that influences human balance. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of the Islamic prayer regime on balance. [Subjects and Methods] Sixty healthy male subjects with a mean age of 31 ± 5 years and a mean body mass index of 27 ± 2 kg/cm2 voluntarily participated in this study. The subjects were divided into two equal groups: one group of subjects who regularly practiced Islamic prayer, and another group of non-practicing subjects. The dynamic balance of individuals in both groups was measured using a Balance Master. [Results] Adult healthy subjects practicing Islamic prayer regimes exhibited statistically significantly better dynamic balance than the non-practicing healthy subjects. [Conclusions] The results of this study support the hypothesis that religious meditation and prayers benefit human physiological function, especially balance. PMID:24409021

  14. FISHER INFORMATION AND ECOSYSTEM REGIME CHANGES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Following Fisher’s work, we propose two different expressions for the Fisher Information along with Shannon Information as a means of detecting and assessing shifts between alternative ecosystem regimes. Regime shifts are a consequence of bifurcations in the dynamics of an ecosys...

  15. Statistical scaling of pore-scale Lagrangian velocities in natural porous media.

    PubMed

    Siena, M; Guadagnini, A; Riva, M; Bijeljic, B; Pereira Nunes, J P; Blunt, M J

    2014-08-01

    We investigate the scaling behavior of sample statistics of pore-scale Lagrangian velocities in two different rock samples, Bentheimer sandstone and Estaillades limestone. The samples are imaged using x-ray computer tomography with micron-scale resolution. The scaling analysis relies on the study of the way qth-order sample structure functions (statistical moments of order q of absolute increments) of Lagrangian velocities depend on separation distances, or lags, traveled along the mean flow direction. In the sandstone block, sample structure functions of all orders exhibit a power-law scaling within a clearly identifiable intermediate range of lags. Sample structure functions associated with the limestone block display two diverse power-law regimes, which we infer to be related to two overlapping spatially correlated structures. In both rocks and for all orders q, we observe linear relationships between logarithmic structure functions of successive orders at all lags (a phenomenon that is typically known as extended power scaling, or extended self-similarity). The scaling behavior of Lagrangian velocities is compared with the one exhibited by porosity and specific surface area, which constitute two key pore-scale geometric observables. The statistical scaling of the local velocity field reflects the behavior of these geometric observables, with the occurrence of power-law-scaling regimes within the same range of lags for sample structure functions of Lagrangian velocity, porosity, and specific surface area.

  16. Social inequalities in "sickness": does welfare state regime type make a difference? A multilevel analysis of men and women in 26 European countries.

    PubMed

    van der Wel, Kjetil A; Dahl, Espen; Thielen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    In comparative studies of health inequalities, public health researchers have usually studied only disease and illness. Recent studies have also examined the sickness dimension of health, that is, the extent to which ill health is accompanied by joblessness, and how this association varies by education within different welfare contexts. This research has used either a limited number of countries or quantitative welfare state measures in studies of many countries. In this study, the authors expand on this knowledge by investigating whether a regime approach to the welfare state produces consistent results. They analyze data from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC); health was measured by limiting longstanding illness (LLSI). Results show that for both men and women reporting LLSI in combination with low educational level, the probabilities of non-employment were particularly high in the Anglo-Saxon and Eastern welfare regimes, and lowest in the Scandinavian regime. For men, absolute and relative social inequalities in sickness were lowest in the Southern regime; for women, inequalities were lowest in the Scandinavian regime. The authors conclude that the Scandinavian welfare regime is more able than other regimes to protect against non-employment in the face of illness, especially for individuals with low educational level.

  17. How Good Are Statistical Models at Approximating Complex Fitness Landscapes?

    PubMed Central

    du Plessis, Louis; Leventhal, Gabriel E.; Bonhoeffer, Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Fitness landscapes determine the course of adaptation by constraining and shaping evolutionary trajectories. Knowledge of the structure of a fitness landscape can thus predict evolutionary outcomes. Empirical fitness landscapes, however, have so far only offered limited insight into real-world questions, as the high dimensionality of sequence spaces makes it impossible to exhaustively measure the fitness of all variants of biologically meaningful sequences. We must therefore revert to statistical descriptions of fitness landscapes that are based on a sparse sample of fitness measurements. It remains unclear, however, how much data are required for such statistical descriptions to be useful. Here, we assess the ability of regression models accounting for single and pairwise mutations to correctly approximate a complex quasi-empirical fitness landscape. We compare approximations based on various sampling regimes of an RNA landscape and find that the sampling regime strongly influences the quality of the regression. On the one hand it is generally impossible to generate sufficient samples to achieve a good approximation of the complete fitness landscape, and on the other hand systematic sampling schemes can only provide a good description of the immediate neighborhood of a sequence of interest. Nevertheless, we obtain a remarkably good and unbiased fit to the local landscape when using sequences from a population that has evolved under strong selection. Thus, current statistical methods can provide a good approximation to the landscape of naturally evolving populations. PMID:27189564

  18. Investigating Satellite Microwave observations of Precipitation in Different Climate Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, N.; Ferraro, R. R.

    2013-12-01

    Microwave satellite remote sensing of precipitation over land is a challenging problem due to the highly variable land surface emissivity, which, if not properly accounted for, can be much greater than the precipitation signal itself, especially in light rain/snow conditions. Additionally, surfaces such as arid land, deserts and snow cover have brightness temperature characteristics similar to precipitation Ongoing work by GPM microwave radiometer team is constructing databases through a variety of means, however, there is much uncertainty as to what is the optimal information needed for the wide array of sensors in the GPM constellation, including examination of regional conditions. The original data sets will focus on stratification by emissivity class, surface temperature and total perceptible water. We'll perform sensitivity studies to determine the potential role of ancillary data (e.g., land surface temperature, snow cover/water equivalent, etc.) to improve precipitation estimation over land in different climate regimes, including rain and snow. In other words, what information outside of the radiances can help describe the background and subsequent departures from it that are active precipitating regions? It is likely that this information will be a function of the various precipitation regimes. Statistical methods such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) will be utilized in this task. Databases from a variety of sources are being constructed. They include existing satellite microwave measurements of precipitating and non-precipitating conditions, ground radar precipitation rate estimates, surface emissivity climatology from satellites, surface temperature and TPW from NWP reanalysis. Results from the analysis of these databases with respect to the microwave precipitation sensitivity to the variety of environmental conditions in different climate regimes will be discussed.

  19. Deterministic-random separation in nonstationary regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abboud, D.; Antoni, J.; Sieg-Zieba, S.; Eltabach, M.

    2016-02-01

    In rotating machinery vibration analysis, the synchronous average is perhaps the most widely used technique for extracting periodic components. Periodic components are typically related to gear vibrations, misalignments, unbalances, blade rotations, reciprocating forces, etc. Their separation from other random components is essential in vibration-based diagnosis in order to discriminate useful information from masking noise. However, synchronous averaging theoretically requires the machine to operate under stationary regime (i.e. the related vibration signals are cyclostationary) and is otherwise jeopardized by the presence of amplitude and phase modulations. A first object of this paper is to investigate the nature of the nonstationarity induced by the response of a linear time-invariant system subjected to speed varying excitation. For this purpose, the concept of a cyclo-non-stationary signal is introduced, which extends the class of cyclostationary signals to speed-varying regimes. Next, a "generalized synchronous average'' is designed to extract the deterministic part of a cyclo-non-stationary vibration signal-i.e. the analog of the periodic part of a cyclostationary signal. Two estimators of the GSA have been proposed. The first one returns the synchronous average of the signal at predefined discrete operating speeds. A brief statistical study of it is performed, aiming to provide the user with confidence intervals that reflect the "quality" of the estimator according to the SNR and the estimated speed. The second estimator returns a smoothed version of the former by enforcing continuity over the speed axis. It helps to reconstruct the deterministic component by tracking a specific trajectory dictated by the speed profile (assumed to be known a priori).The proposed method is validated first on synthetic signals and then on actual industrial signals. The usefulness of the approach is demonstrated on envelope-based diagnosis of bearings in variable

  20. Covariance Between Arctic Sea Ice and Clouds Within Atmospheric State Regimes at the Satellite Footprint Level

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Patrick C.; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  1. Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level

    PubMed Central

    Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan‐Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice‐cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint‐level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A‐Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest‐magnitude cloud‐sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near‐surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations. PMID:27818851

  2. Covariance between Arctic sea ice and clouds within atmospheric state regimes at the satellite footprint level.

    PubMed

    Taylor, Patrick C; Kato, Seiji; Xu, Kuan-Man; Cai, Ming

    2015-12-27

    Understanding the cloud response to sea ice change is necessary for modeling Arctic climate. Previous work has primarily addressed this problem from the interannual variability perspective. This paper provides a refined perspective of sea ice-cloud relationship in the Arctic using a satellite footprint-level quantification of the covariance between sea ice and Arctic low cloud properties from NASA A-Train active remote sensing data. The covariances between Arctic low cloud properties and sea ice concentration are quantified by first partitioning each footprint into four atmospheric regimes defined using thresholds of lower tropospheric stability and midtropospheric vertical velocity. Significant regional variability in the cloud properties is found within the atmospheric regimes indicating that the regimes do not completely account for the influence of meteorology. Regional anomalies are used to account for the remaining meteorological influence on clouds. After accounting for meteorological regime and regional influences, a statistically significant but weak covariance between cloud properties and sea ice is found in each season for at least one atmospheric regime. Smaller average cloud fraction and liquid water are found within footprints with more sea ice. The largest-magnitude cloud-sea ice covariance occurs between 500 m and 1.2 km when the lower tropospheric stability is between 16 and 24 K. The covariance between low cloud properties and sea ice is found to be largest in fall and is accompanied by significant changes in boundary layer temperature structure where larger average near-surface static stability is found at larger sea ice concentrations.

  3. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) means the policy statement between the United States, the United Kingdom...

  4. Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

    2016-01-15

    We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Regime-dependence of Impacts of Radar Rainfall Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craig, G. C.; Keil, C.

    2009-04-01

    Experience from the first operational trials of assimilation of radar data in kilometre scale numerical weather prediction models (operating without cumulus parameterisation) shows that the positive impact of the radar data on convective precipitation forecasts typically decay within a few hours, although certain cases show much longer impacts. Here the impact time of radar data assimilation is related to characteristics of the meteorological environment. This QPF uncertainty is investigated using an ensemble of 10 forecasts at 2.8 km horizontal resolution based on different initial and boundary conditions from a global forecast ensemble. Control forecasts are compared with forecasts where radar reflectivity data is assimilated using latent heat nudging. Examination of different cases of convection in southern Germany suggests that the forecasts can be separated into two regimes using a convective timescale. Short impact times are associated with short convective timescales that are characteristic of equilibrium convection. In this regime the statistical properties of the convection are constrained by the large-scale forcing, and effects of the radar data are lost within a few hours as the convection rapidly returns to equilibrium. When the convective timescale is large (non-equilibrium conditions), the impact of the radar data is longer since convective systems are triggered by the latent heat nudging and are able to persist for many hours in the very unstable conditions present in these cases.

  6. Comparison of dynamic treatment regimes via inverse probability weighting.

    PubMed

    Hernán, Miguel A; Lanoy, Emilie; Costagliola, Dominique; Robins, James M

    2006-03-01

    Appropriate analysis of observational data is our best chance to obtain answers to many questions that involve dynamic treatment regimes. This paper describes a simple method to compare dynamic treatment regimes by artificially censoring subjects and then using inverse probability weighting (IPW) to adjust for any selection bias introduced by the artificial censoring. The basic strategy can be summarized in four steps: 1) define two regimes of interest, 2) artificially censor individuals when they stop following one of the regimes of interest, 3) estimate inverse probability weights to adjust for the potential selection bias introduced by censoring in the previous step, 4) compare the survival of the uncensored individuals under each regime of interest by fitting an inverse probability weighted Cox proportional hazards model with the dichotomous regime indicator and the baseline confounders as covariates. In the absence of model misspecification, the method is valid provided data are available on all time-varying and baseline joint predictors of survival and regime discontinuation. We present an application of the method to compare the AIDS-free survival under two dynamic treatment regimes in a large prospective study of HIV-infected patients. The paper concludes by discussing the relative advantages and disadvantages of censoring/IPW versus g-estimation of nested structural models to compare dynamic regimes.

  7. Regimes of mini black hole abandoned to accretion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paik, Biplab

    2018-01-01

    Being inspired by the Eddington’s idea, along with other auxiliary arguments, it is unveiled that there exist regimes of a black hole that would prohibit accretion of ordinary energy. In explicit words, there exists a lower bound to black hole mass below which matter accretion process does not run for black holes. Not merely the baryonic matter, but, in regimes, also the massless photons could get prohibited from rushing into a black hole. However, unlike the baryon accretion abandoned black hole regime, the mass-regime of a black hole prohibiting accretion of radiation could vary along with its ambient temperature. For example, we discuss that earlier to 10‑8 s after the big-bang, as the cosmological temperature of the Universe grew above ˜ 1014 K, the mass range of black hole designating the radiation accretion abandoned regime, had to be in varying state being connected with the instantaneous age of the evolving Universe by an “one half” power law. It happens to be a fact that a black hole holding regimes prohibiting accretion of energy is gigantic by its size in comparison to the Planck length-scale. Hence the emergence of these regimes demands mini black holes for not being viable as profound suckers of energy. Consideration of accretion abandoned regimes could be crucial for constraining or judging the evolution of primordial black holes over the age of the Universe.

  8. Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

    2017-09-01

    Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This

  9. Architecture of collapse: regime shift and recovery in an hierarchically structured marine ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Daskalov, Georgi M; Boicenco, Laura; Grishin, Alexandre N; Lazar, Luminita; Mihneva, Vesselina; Shlyakhov, Vladislav A; Zengin, Mustafa

    2017-04-01

    By the late 20th century, a series of events or 'natural experiments', for example the depletion of apex predators, extreme eutrophication and blooms of invasive species, had suggested that the Black Sea could be considered as a large ecosystem 'laboratory'. The events resulted in regime shifts cascading through all trophic levels, disturbing ecosystem functioning and damaging the water environment. Causal pathways by which the external (hydroclimate, overfishing) and internal (food web interactions) drivers provoke regime shifts are investigated. Statistical data analyses supported by an interpretative framework based on hierarchical ecosystem theory revealed mechanisms of hierarchical incorporation of environmental factors into the ecosystem. Evidence links Atlantic teleconnections to Black Sea hydroclimate, which together with fishing shapes variability in fish stocks. The hydroclimatic signal is conveyed through the food web via changes in productivity at all levels, to planktivorous fish. Fluctuating fish abundance is believed to induce a lagged change in competitor jelly plankton that cascades down to phytoplankton and influences water quality. Deprived of the stabilising role of apex predators, the Black Sea's hierarchical ecosystem organisation is susceptible to both environmental and anthropogenic stresses, and increased fishing makes fish stock collapses highly probable. When declining stocks are confronted with burgeoning fishing effort associated with the inability of fishery managers and decision-makers to adapt rapidly to changes in fish abundance, there is overfishing and stock collapse. Management procedures are ineffective at handling complex phenomena such as ecosystem regime shifts because of the shortage of suitable explanatory models. The proposed concepts and models reported here relate the hydroclimate, overfishing and invasive species to shifts in ecosystem functioning and water quality, unravelling issues such as the causality of ecosystem

  10. Chaos and wave propagation regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colosi, John

    2003-04-01

    Ray chaos theory and parabolic equation numerical modeling were two thrusts of Fred Tappert's research that were perpetually in tension. Fred was interested in the problem of identifying wave propagation regimes, most notably the strong focusing caustic regime and its evolution into the saturation regime. On the one hand, chaos theory held the seed of the complexity Fred believed existed in ocean acoustic wavefields; on the other hand ocean acoustic ray chaos theory (which Fred helped to pioneer) was a disdainful approximation to the full wave treatments offered by parabolic equation calculations. Fred was convinced that the saturation limit could not be obtained using ray theory and therefore he examined a new field of inquiry: a blend of chaotic ray insight and full wave dynamics called wave chaos. This talk will discuss some of Fred's insights on this topic and how they relate to observations from basin scale acoustic transmissions.

  11. A holistic view of marine regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Conversi, Alessandra; Dakos, Vasilis; Gårdmark, Anna; Ling, Scott; Folke, Carl; Mumby, Peter J.; Greene, Charles; Edwards, Martin; Blenckner, Thorsten; Casini, Michele; Pershing, Andrew; Möllmann, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

  12. Statistical simulation of the magnetorotational dynamo.

    PubMed

    Squire, J; Bhattacharjee, A

    2015-02-27

    Turbulence and dynamo induced by the magnetorotational instability (MRI) are analyzed using quasilinear statistical simulation methods. It is found that homogenous turbulence is unstable to a large-scale dynamo instability, which saturates to an inhomogenous equilibrium with a strong dependence on the magnetic Prandtl number (Pm). Despite its enormously reduced nonlinearity, the dependence of the angular momentum transport on Pm in the quasilinear model is qualitatively similar to that of nonlinear MRI turbulence. This demonstrates the importance of the large-scale dynamo and suggests how dramatically simplified models may be used to gain insight into the astrophysically relevant regimes of very low or high Pm.

  13. Cargo liability regimes

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2001-01-01

    There are at present at least three international regimes of maritime cargo liability in force in different countries of the world - the original Hague rules (1924), the updated version known as the Hague-Visby rules (1968, further amended 1979), and...

  14. Theoretical Study of the Statistical Properties of Single- and Double-Pass M-Mode Er3+-Ti:LiNbO3 Straight Waveguide Amplifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Puscas, Liliana A.; Galatus, Ramona V.; Puscas, Niculae N.

    In this article, we report a theoretical study concerning some statistical parameters which characterize the single- and double-pass Er3+-doped Ti:LiNbO3 M-mode straight waveguides. For the derivation and the evaluation of the Fano factor, the statistical fluctuation and the spontaneous emission factor we used a quasi two-level model in the small gain approximation and the unsaturated regime. The simulation results show the evolution of these parameters under various pump regimes and waveguide lengths. The obtained results can be used for the design of complex rare earth-doped integrated circuits.

  15. Institutional design and regime effectiveness in transboundary river management - the Elbe water quality regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowsky, I.

    2008-02-01

    The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing about cooperation. However, knowledge about how such institutions should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships that lead to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship between institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE). The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expediency of the institutional arrangements. The study shows overall that the countries were relatively successful in improving water quality in the Elbe basin. However, this outcome can only partly be attributed to the ICPE itself. Furthermore, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity: it was relatively significant where the main responsibility for action lay with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model, but was practically non-existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers). The commission contributed towards problem solving by serving as a forum for the joint identification of priorities for action from a basin-wide perspective. The resulting international obligations increased the power of national water administrations and their access to funds. At the same time

  16. Institutional design and regime effectiveness in transboundary river management - the Elbe water quality regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dombrowsky, I.

    2007-06-01

    The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing cooperation about. However, the knowledge on how they should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships leading to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship of institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE). The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expedience of the institutional arrangements. The study shows that overall due to external as well as internal institutional factors the ICPE proved relatively successful, and as such it also provides insights into how institutions matter: The commission served as platform for joint problem solving by identifying priorities for action. These international obligations increased the power of national administrations and their access to funds. At the same time, the Commission's reporting to the public served as an enforcement mechanism. However, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity. It was high where the main responsibility for action was with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model. It was practically non existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where the success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers). From a methodological point

  17. Planning for Post-Regime Change Environments: The Introduction of a Post-Regime Environment Planning Partnership (PREPP)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-05-26

    makers. The third case study, on Nigeria , will provide an analysis of a peaceful transition of power. Finally, the structure for a proposed Post...15. SUBJECT TERMS Regime Change, National Security Council, Kosovo, Libya, Nigeria , transition of power, post-regime change planning. 16. SECURITY...conflation that exists between the planning element and politically appointed decision makers. The third case study, on Nigeria , will provide an analysis of

  18. Challenges in the participatory assessment of sustainable management practices in dryland ecosystems under regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jucker Riva, Matteo; Schwilch, Gudrun; Liniger, Hanspeter

    2015-04-01

    Regime shifts, defined as a radical and persistent reconfiguration of an ecosystem following a disturbance, have been acknowledged by scientists as a very important aspect of the dynamic of ecosystems. However, their consideration in land management planning remains marginal and limited to specific processes and systems. Current research focuses on mathematical modeling and statistical analysis of spatio-temporal data for specific environmental variables. These methods do not fulfill the needs of land managers, who are confronted with a multitude of processes and pressure types and require clear and simple strategies to prevent regime shift or to increase the resilience of their environment. The EU-FP7 CASCADE project is looking at regime shifts of dryland ecosystems in southern Europe and specifically focuses on rangeland and forest systems which are prone to various land degradation threats. One of the aims of the project is to evaluate the impact of different management practices on the dynamic of the environment in a participatory manner, including a multi-stakeholder evaluation of the state of the environment and of the management potential. To achieve this objective we have organized several stakeholder meetings and we have compiled a review of management practices using the WOCAT methodology, which enables merging scientific and land users knowledge. We highlight here the main challenges we have encountered in applying the notion of regime shift to real world socio-ecological systems and in translating related concepts such as tipping points, stable states, hysteresis and resilience to land managers, using concrete examples from CASCADE study sites. Secondly, we explore the advantages of including land users' knowledge in the scientific understanding of regime shifts. Moreover, we discuss useful alternative concepts and lessons learnt that will allow us to build a participatory method for the assessment of resilient management practices in specific socio

  19. Transient dynamics of a quantum-dot: From Kondo regime to mixed valence and to empty orbital regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, YongXi; Li, ZhenHua; Wei, JianHua; Nie, YiHang; Yan, YiJing

    2018-04-01

    Based on the hierarchical equations of motion approach, we study the time-dependent transport properties of a strongly correlated quantum dot system in the Kondo regime (KR), mixed valence regime (MVR), and empty orbital regime (EOR). We find that the transient current in KR shows the strongest nonlinear response and the most distinct oscillation behaviors. Both behaviors become weaker in MVR and diminish in EOR. To understand the physical insight, we examine also the corresponding dot occupancies and the spectral functions, with their dependence on the Coulomb interaction, temperature, and applied step bias voltage. The above nonlinear and oscillation behaviors could be understood as the interplay between dynamical Kondo resonance and single electron resonant-tunneling.

  20. A New Global Policy Regime Founded on Invalid Statistics? Hanushek, Woessmann, PISA, and Economic Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Komatsu, Hikaru; Rappleye, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Several recent, highly influential comparative studies have made strong statistical claims that improvements on global learning assessments such as PISA will lead to higher GDP growth rates. These claims have provided the primary source of legitimation for policy reforms championed by leading international organisations, most notably the World…

  1. From inverse problems to learning: a Statistical Mechanics approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldassi, Carlo; Gerace, Federica; Saglietti, Luca; Zecchina, Riccardo

    2018-01-01

    We present a brief introduction to the statistical mechanics approaches for the study of inverse problems in data science. We then provide concrete new results on inferring couplings from sampled configurations in systems characterized by an extensive number of stable attractors in the low temperature regime. We also show how these result are connected to the problem of learning with realistic weak signals in computational neuroscience. Our techniques and algorithms rely on advanced mean-field methods developed in the context of disordered systems.

  2. Recurrence time statistics of landslide events simulated by a cellular automaton model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piegari, Ester; Di Maio, Rosa; Avella, Adolfo

    2014-05-01

    The recurrence time statistics of a cellular automaton modelling landslide events is analyzed by performing a numerical analysis in the parameter space and estimating Fano factor behaviors. The model is an extended version of the OFC model, which is a paradigm for SOC in non-conserved systems, but it works differently from the original OFC model as a finite value of the driving rate is applied. By driving the system to instability with different rates, the model exhibits a smooth transition from a correlated to an uncorrelated regime as the effect of a change in predominant mechanisms to propagate instability. If the rate at which instability is approached is small, chain processes dominate the landslide dynamics, and power laws govern probability distributions. However, the power-law regime typical of SOC-like systems is found in a range of return intervals that becomes shorter and shorter by increasing the values of the driving rates. Indeed, if the rates at which instability is approached are large, domino processes are no longer active in propagating instability, and large events simply occur because a large number of cells simultaneously reach instability. Such a gradual loss of the effectiveness of the chain propagation mechanism causes the system gradually enter to an uncorrelated regime where recurrence time distributions are characterized by Weibull behaviors. Simulation results are qualitatively compared with those from a recent analysis performed by Witt et al.(Earth Surf. Process. Landforms, 35, 1138, 2010) for the first complete databases of landslide occurrences over a period as large as fifty years. From the comparison with the extensive landslide data set, the numerical analysis suggests that statistics of such landslide data seem to be described by a crossover region between a correlated regime and an uncorrelated regime, where recurrence time distributions are characterized by power-law and Weibull behaviors for short and long return times

  3. Experimental measurements and modeling of convective heat transfer in the transitional rarefied regime

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Strongrich, Andrew D.; Alexeenko, Alina A.

    We present experimental measurements and numerical simulations of convective heat transfer performance in the transitional rarefied regime for an isolated rectangular beam geometry. Experiments were performed using single crystalline silicon beam elements having width-to-thickness aspect ratios of 8.5 and 17.4. Devices were enclosed in a vacuum chamber and heated resistively using a DC power supply. A range of pressures corresponding to Knudsen numbers between 0.096 and 43.2 in terms of device thickness were swept, adjusting applied power to maintain a constant temperature of 50 K above the ambient temperature. Both parasitic electrical resistance associated with the hardware and radiative exchangemore » with the environment were removed from measured data, allowing purely convective heat flux to be extracted. Numerical simulations were carried out deterministically through solution of the Ellipsoidal Statistical Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook collision model of the Boltzmann equation. Results agree with experimental data, revealing a strong coupling between dissipated heat flux and thermal stresses within the flowfield as well as a nonlinear transition between the free-molecule and continuum regimes.« less

  4. Predictive Model for the Design of Zwitterionic Polymer Brushes: A Statistical Design of Experiments Approach.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Ramya; Lahann, Joerg

    2016-07-06

    The performance of polymer interfaces in biology is governed by a wide spectrum of interfacial properties. With the ultimate goal of identifying design parameters for stem cell culture coatings, we developed a statistical model that describes the dependence of brush properties on surface-initiated polymerization (SIP) parameters. Employing a design of experiments (DOE) approach, we identified operating boundaries within which four gel architecture regimes can be realized, including a new regime of associated brushes in thin films. Our statistical model can accurately predict the brush thickness and the degree of intermolecular association of poly[{2-(methacryloyloxy) ethyl} dimethyl-(3-sulfopropyl) ammonium hydroxide] (PMEDSAH), a previously reported synthetic substrate for feeder-free and xeno-free culture of human embryonic stem cells. DOE-based multifunctional predictions offer a powerful quantitative framework for designing polymer interfaces. For example, model predictions can be used to decrease the critical thickness at which the wettability transition occurs by simply increasing the catalyst quantity from 1 to 3 mol %.

  5. Cointegration and causal linkages in fertilizer markets across different regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Cointegration and causal linkages among five different fertilizer markets are investigated during low and high market regimes. The database includes prices of rock phosphate (RP), triple super phosphate (TSP), diammonium phosphate (DAP), urea, and potassium chloride (PC). It is found that fertilizer markets are closely linked to each other during low and high regimes; and, particularly during high regime (after 2007 international financial crisis). In addition, there is no evidence of bidirectional linear relationship between markets during low and high regime time periods. Furthermore, all significant linkages are only unidirectional. Moreover, some causality effects have emerged during high regime. Finally, the effect of an impulse during high regime time period persists longer and is stronger than the effect of an impulse during low regime time period (before 2007 international financial crisis).

  6. Hydrologic regimes as potential drivers of morphologic divergence in fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bruckerhoff, Lindsey; Magoulick, Daniel D.

    2017-01-01

    Fishes often exhibit phenotypic divergence across gradients of abiotic and biotic selective pressures. In streams, many of the known selective pressures driving phenotypic differentiation are largely influenced by hydrologic regimes. Because flow regimes drive so many attributes of lotic systems, we hypothesized fish exhibit phenotypic divergence among streams with different flow regimes. We used a comparative field study to investigate the morphological divergence of Campostoma anomalom (central stonerollers) among streams characterized by highly variable, intermittent flow regimes and streams characterized by relatively stable, groundwater flow regimes. We also conducted a mesocosm experiment to compare the plastic effects of one component of flow regimes, water velocity, on morphology of fish from different flow regimes. We observed differences in shape between flow regimes likely driven by differences in allometric growth patterns. Although we observed differences in morphology across flow regimes in the field, C. anomalum did not exhibit morphologic plasticity in response to water velocity alone. This study contributes to the understanding of how complex environmental factors drive phenotypic divergence and may provide insight into the evolutionary consequences of disrupting natural hydrologic patterns, which are increasingly threatened by climate change and anthropogenic alterations.

  7. Transition between Two Regimes Describing Internal Fluctuation of DNA in a Nanochannel

    PubMed Central

    Su, Tianxiang; Das, Somes K.; Xiao, Ming; Purohit, Prashant K.

    2011-01-01

    We measure the thermal fluctuation of the internal segments of a piece of DNA confined in a nanochannel about 50100 nm wide. This local thermodynamic property is key to accurate measurement of distances in genomic analysis. For DNA in 100 nm channels, we observe a critical length scale 10 m for the mean extension of internal segments, below which the de Gennes' theory describes the fluctuations with no fitting parameters, and above which the fluctuation data falls into Odijk's deflection theory regime. By analyzing the probability distributions of the extensions of the internal segments, we infer that folded structures of length 150250 nm, separated by 10 m exist in the confined DNA during the transition between the two regimes. For 50 nm channels we find that the fluctuation is significantly reduced since the Odijk regime appears earlier. This is critical for genomic analysis. We further propose a more detailed theory based on small fluctuations and incorporating the effects of confinement to explicitly calculate the statistical properties of the internal fluctuations. Our theory is applicable to polymers with heterogeneous mechanical properties confined in non-uniform channels. We show that existing theories for the end-to-end extension/fluctuation of polymers can be used to study the internal fluctuations only when the contour length of the polymer is many times larger than its persistence length. Finally, our results suggest that introducing nicks in the DNA will not change its fluctuation behavior when the nick density is below 1 nick per kbp DNA. PMID:21423606

  8. Fragmentation patterns of multicharged C60r+ (r=3-5) studied with well-controlled internal excitation energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, S.; Chen, L.; Salmoun, A.; Li, B.; Bernard, J.; Brédy, R.

    2008-04-01

    We have studied the relaxation of triply charged C60 obtained in collisions F2++C60→F-+C603+∗ at low impact energy (E=6.8keV) . Depending on the excitation energy, these initial parent ions decay following a variety of channels, such as thermal electronic ionization, evaporation of C2 units, asymmetrical fission, and multifragmentation. Using a recently developed experimental method, named collision-induced dissociation under energy control, we were able to measure the energy deposited in C603+∗ for each collision event and to obtain an excitation energy profile of the parent ions associated with each decay channel. In our chosen observation time scale of the order of 1μs , evaporations and asymmetrical fissions of C603+,4+ occur when the internal energy is in the range from 40 to 100 eV. The multifragmentation becomes dominant for multicharged C604+,5+ parent ions from 100 to 210 eV. In the case of C604+ , the multifragmentation channel is opened at low energy (40 eV). Therefore, in the energy range 40-100 eV, the asymmetrical fission, evaporation, and multifragmentation channels are in competition.

  9. Toward a Physical Characterization of Raindrop Collision Outcome Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Testik, F. Y.; Barros, Ana P.; Bilven, Francis L.

    2011-01-01

    A comprehensive raindrop collision outcome regime diagram that delineates the physical conditions associated with the outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and different breakup types) of binary raindrop collisions is proposed. The proposed diagram builds on a theoretical regime diagram defined in the phase space of collision Weber numbers We and the drop diameter ratio p by including critical angle of impact considerations. In this study, the theoretical regime diagram is first evaluated against a comprehensive dataset for drop collision experiments representative of raindrop collisions in nature. Subsequently, the theoretical regime diagram is modified to explicitly describe the dominant regimes of raindrop interactions in (We, p) by delineating the physical conditions necessary for the occurrence of distinct types of collision-induced breakup (neck/filament, sheet, disk, and crown breakups) based on critical angle of impact consideration. Crown breakup is a subtype of disk breakup for lower collision kinetic energy that presents distinctive morphology. Finally, the experimental results are analyzed in the context of the comprehensive collision regime diagram, and conditional probabilities that can be used in the parameterization of breakup kernels in stochastic models of raindrop dynamics are provided.

  10. Chapter 3 – Phenomenology of Tsunamis: Statistical Properties from Generation to Runup

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.

    2015-01-01

    Observations related to tsunami generation, propagation, and runup are reviewed and described in a phenomenological framework. In the three coastal regimes considered (near-field broadside, near-field oblique, and far field), the observed maximum wave amplitude is associated with different parts of the tsunami wavefield. The maximum amplitude in the near-field broadside regime is most often associated with the direct arrival from the source, whereas in the near-field oblique regime, the maximum amplitude is most often associated with the propagation of edge waves. In the far field, the maximum amplitude is most often caused by the interaction of the tsunami coda that develops during basin-wide propagation and the nearshore response, including the excitation of edge waves, shelf modes, and resonance. Statistical distributions that describe tsunami observations are also reviewed, both in terms of spatial distributions, such as coseismic slip on the fault plane and near-field runup, and temporal distributions, such as wave amplitudes in the far field. In each case, fundamental theories of tsunami physics are heuristically used to explain the observations.

  11. The theoretical and experimental study of a material structure evolution in gigacyclic fatigue regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plekhov, Oleg; Naimark, Oleg; Narykova, Maria; Kadomtsev, Andrey; Betekhtin, Vladimir

    2015-10-01

    The work is devoted to the study of the metal structure evolution under gigacyclic fatigue (VHCF) regime. The study of the mechanical properties of the samples (Armco iron) with different state of life time existing was carried out on the base of the acoustic resonance method. The damage accumulation (porosity of the samples) was studied by the hydrostatic weighing method. A statistical model of damage accumulation was proposed in order to describe the damage accumulation process. The model describes the influence of the sample surface on the location of fatigue crack initiation.

  12. Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Terry P; Carpenter, Stephen; Rockström, Johan; Scheffer, Marten; Walker, Brian

    2013-07-01

    Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Film thickness for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication. [elliptical contacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.; Dowson, D.

    1983-01-01

    Mathematical formulas are presented which express the dimensionless minimum film thickness for the four lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts: isoviscous-rigid regime; piezoviscous-rigid regime; isoviscous-elastic regime; and piezoviscous-elastic regime. The relative importance of pressure on elastic distortion and lubricant viscosity is the factor that distinguishes these regimes for a given conjunction geometry. In addition, these equations were used to develop maps of the lubrication regimes by plotting film thickness contours on a log-log grid of the dimensionless viscosity and elasticity parameters for three values of the ellipticity parameter. These results present a complete theoretical film thickness parameter solution for elliptical constants in the four lubrication regimes. The results are particularly useful in initial investigations of many practical lubrication problems involving elliptical conjunctions.

  14. Multi-charge-state molecular dynamics and self-diffusion coefficient in the warm dense matter regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Yongsheng; Hou, Yong; Kang, Dongdong; Gao, Cheng; Jin, Fengtao; Yuan, Jianmin

    2018-01-01

    We present a multi-ion molecular dynamics (MIMD) simulation and apply it to calculating the self-diffusion coefficients of ions with different charge-states in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime. First, the method is used for the self-consistent calculation of electron structures of different charge-state ions in the ion sphere, with the ion-sphere radii being determined by the plasma density and the ion charges. The ionic fraction is then obtained by solving the Saha equation, taking account of interactions among different charge-state ions in the system, and ion-ion pair potentials are computed using the modified Gordon-Kim method in the framework of temperature-dependent density functional theory on the basis of the electron structures. Finally, MIMD is used to calculate ionic self-diffusion coefficients from the velocity correlation function according to the Green-Kubo relation. A comparison with the results of the average-atom model shows that different statistical processes will influence the ionic diffusion coefficient in the WDM regime.

  15. Timber harvest as the predominant disturbance regime in northeastern U.S. forests: Effects of harvest intensification

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Michelle L.; Canham, Charles D.; Murphy, Lora; Donovan, Therese M.

    2018-01-01

    Harvesting is the leading cause of adult tree mortality in forests of the northeastern United States. While current rates of timber harvest are generally sustainable, there is considerable pressure to increase the contribution of forest biomass to meet renewable energy goals. We estimated current harvest regimes for different forest types and regions across the U.S. states of New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine using data from the U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis Program. We implemented the harvest regimes in SORTIE‐ND, an individual‐based model of forest dynamics, and simulated the effects of current harvest regimes and five additional harvest scenarios that varied by harvest frequency and intensity over 150 yr. The best statistical model for the harvest regime described the annual probability of harvest as a function of forest type/region, total plot basal area, and distance to the nearest improved road. Forests were predicted to increase in adult aboveground biomass in all harvest scenarios in all forest type and region combinations. The magnitude of the increase, however, varied dramatically—increasing from 3% to 120% above current landscape averages as harvest frequency and intensity decreased. The variation can be largely explained by the disproportionately high harvest rates estimated for Maine as compared with the rest of the region. Despite steady biomass accumulation across the landscape, stands that exhibited old‐growth characteristics (defined as ≥300 metric tons of biomass/hectare) were rare (8% or less of stands). Intensified harvest regimes had little effect on species composition due to widespread partial harvesting in all scenarios, resulting in dominance by late‐successional species over time. Our analyses indicate that forest biomass can represent a sustainable, if small, component of renewable energy portfolios in the region, although there are tradeoffs between carbon sequestration in forest biomass and sustainable

  16. Non-Markovian full counting statistics in quantum dot molecules

    PubMed Central

    Xue, Hai-Bin; Jiao, Hu-Jun; Liang, Jiu-Qing; Liu, Wu-Ming

    2015-01-01

    Full counting statistics of electron transport is a powerful diagnostic tool for probing the nature of quantum transport beyond what is obtainable from the average current or conductance measurement alone. In particular, the non-Markovian dynamics of quantum dot molecule plays an important role in the nonequilibrium electron tunneling processes. It is thus necessary to understand the non-Markovian full counting statistics in a quantum dot molecule. Here we study the non-Markovian full counting statistics in two typical quantum dot molecules, namely, serially coupled and side-coupled double quantum dots with high quantum coherence in a certain parameter regime. We demonstrate that the non-Markovian effect manifests itself through the quantum coherence of the quantum dot molecule system, and has a significant impact on the full counting statistics in the high quantum-coherent quantum dot molecule system, which depends on the coupling of the quantum dot molecule system with the source and drain electrodes. The results indicated that the influence of the non-Markovian effect on the full counting statistics of electron transport, which should be considered in a high quantum-coherent quantum dot molecule system, can provide a better understanding of electron transport through quantum dot molecules. PMID:25752245

  17. Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

    PubMed Central

    Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

    2015-01-01

    A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

  18. Statistics of resonances for a class of billiards on the Poincaré half-plane

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howard, P. J.; Mota-Furtado, F.; O'Mahony, P. F.; Uski, V.

    2005-12-01

    The lower boundary of Artin's billiard on the Poincaré half-plane is continuously deformed to generate a class of billiards with classical dynamics varying from fully integrable to completely chaotic. The quantum scattering problem in these open billiards is described and the statistics of both real and imaginary parts of the resonant momenta are investigated. The evolution of the resonance positions is followed as the boundary is varied which leads to large changes in their distribution. The transition to arithmetic chaos in Artin's billiard, which is responsible for the Poissonian level-spacing statistics of the bound states in the continuum (cusp forms) at the same time as the formation of a set of resonances all with width \\frac{1}{4} and real parts determined by the zeros of Riemann's zeta function, is closely examined. Regimes are found which obey the universal predictions of random matrix theory (RMT) as well as exhibiting non-universal long-range correlations. The Brody parameter is used to describe the transitions between different regimes.

  19. Statistics of dislocation pinning at localized obstacles

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Dutta, A.; Bhattacharya, M., E-mail: mishreyee@vecc.gov.in; Barat, P.

    2014-10-14

    Pinning of dislocations at nanosized obstacles like precipitates, voids, and bubbles is a crucial mechanism in the context of phenomena like hardening and creep. The interaction between such an obstacle and a dislocation is often studied at fundamental level by means of analytical tools, atomistic simulations, and finite element methods. Nevertheless, the information extracted from such studies cannot be utilized to its maximum extent on account of insufficient information about the underlying statistics of this process comprising a large number of dislocations and obstacles in a system. Here, we propose a new statistical approach, where the statistics of pinning ofmore » dislocations by idealized spherical obstacles is explored by taking into account the generalized size-distribution of the obstacles along with the dislocation density within a three-dimensional framework. Starting with a minimal set of material parameters, the framework employs the method of geometrical statistics with a few simple assumptions compatible with the real physical scenario. The application of this approach, in combination with the knowledge of fundamental dislocation-obstacle interactions, has successfully been demonstrated for dislocation pinning at nanovoids in neutron irradiated type 316-stainless steel in regard to the non-conservative motion of dislocations. An interesting phenomenon of transition from rare pinning to multiple pinning regimes with increasing irradiation temperature is revealed.« less

  20. Modeling of LEO Orbital Debris Populations in Centimeter and Millimeter Size Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xu, Y.-L.; Hill, . M.; Horstman, M.; Krisko, P. H.; Liou, J.-C.; Matney, M.; Stansbery, E. G.

    2010-01-01

    The building of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model, whether ORDEM2000 or its recently updated version ORDEM2010, uses as its foundation a number of model debris populations, each truncated at a minimum object-size ranging from 10 micron to 1 m. This paper discusses the development of the ORDEM2010 model debris populations in LEO (low Earth orbit), focusing on centimeter (smaller than 10 cm) and millimeter size regimes. Primary data sets used in the statistical derivation of the cm- and mm-size model populations are from the Haystack radar operated in a staring mode. Unlike cataloged objects of sizes greater than approximately 10 cm, ground-based radars monitor smaller-size debris only in a statistical manner instead of tracking every piece. The mono-static Haystack radar can detect debris as small as approximately 5 mm at moderate LEO altitudes. Estimation of millimeter debris populations (for objects smaller than approximately 6 mm) rests largely on Goldstone radar measurements. The bi-static Goldstone radar can detect 2- to 3-mm objects. The modeling of the cm- and mm-debris populations follows the general approach to developing other ORDEM2010-required model populations for various components and types of debris. It relies on appropriate reference populations to provide necessary prior information on the orbital structures and other important characteristics of the debris objects. NASA's LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris (LEGEND) model is capable of furnishing such reference populations in the desired size range. A Bayesian statistical inference process, commonly adopted in ORDEM2010 model-population derivations, changes a priori distribution into a posteriori distribution and thus refines the reference populations in terms of data. This paper describes key elements and major steps in the statistical derivations of the cm- and mm-size debris populations and presents results. Due to lack of data for near 1-mm sizes, the model populations of 1- to 3.16-mm

  1. Characterizing Sub-Daily Flow Regimes: Implications of Hydrologic Resolution on Ecohydrology Studies

    DOE PAGES

    Bevelhimer, Mark S.; McManamay, Ryan A.; O'Connor, B.

    2014-05-26

    Natural variability in flow is a primary factor controlling geomorphic and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. Within the hydropower industry, there is growing pressure from environmental groups and natural resource managers to change reservoir releases from daily peaking to run-of-river operations on the basis of the assumption that downstream biological communities will improve under a more natural flow regime. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing sub-daily flows for understanding the physical and ecological dynamics within river systems. We present a variety of metrics for characterizing sub-daily flow variation and use these metrics to evaluate general trends amongmore » streams affected by peaking hydroelectric projects, run-of-river projects and streams that are largely unaffected by flow altering activities. Univariate and multivariate techniques were used to assess similarity among different stream types on the basis of these sub-daily metrics. For comparison, similar analyses were performed using analogous metrics calculated with mean daily flow values. Our results confirm that sub-daily flow metrics reveal variation among and within streams that are not captured by daily flow statistics. Using sub-daily flow statistics, we were able to quantify the degree of difference between unaltered and peaking streams and the amount of similarity between unaltered and run-of-river streams. The sub-daily statistics were largely uncorrelated with daily statistics of similar scope. Furthermore, on short temporal scales, sub-daily statistics reveal the relatively constant nature of unaltered streamreaches and the highly variable nature of hydropower-affected streams, whereas daily statistics show just the opposite over longer temporal scales.« less

  2. Interpreting MAD within multiple accretion regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mocz, Philip; Guo, Xinyi

    2015-02-01

    General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations of accreting black holes in the radiatively inefficient regime show that systems with sufficient magnetic poloidal flux become magnetically arrested disc (MAD) systems, with a well-defined relationship between the magnetic flux and the mass accretion rate. Recently, Zamaninasab et al. report that the jet magnetic flux and accretion disc luminosity are tightly correlated over 7 orders of magnitude for a sample of 76 radio-loud active galaxies, concluding that the data are explained by the MAD mode of accretion. Their analysis assumes radiatively efficient accretion, and their sample consists primarily of radiatively efficient sources, while GRMHD simulations of MAD thus far have been carried out in the radiatively inefficient regime. We propose a model to interpret MAD systems in the context of multiple accretion regimes, and apply it to the sample in Zamaninasab et al., along with additional radiatively inefficient sources from archival data. We show that most of the radiatively inefficient radio-loud galaxies are consistent with being MAD systems. Assuming the MAD relationship found in radiatively inefficient simulations holds at other accretion regimes, a significant fraction of our sample can be candidates for MAD systems. Future GRMHD simulations have yet to verify the validity of this assumption.

  3. Iranian Regime Reform: Opportunities and Consequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-12-01

    Others, such as Ahmad Jannati, the powerful Guardian Council secretary, stated, “post-election turmoil prevented us from criticizing Ahmadinejad’s...government, but it does not mean we are without criticism . . . How long must we keep silent?”95 Ahmadinejad appears to lack a solid power base...East Roundtable ed. 10 vol 8, (April 22, 2010). 35 are critical of the regime].”102 Those who have spoken out against the regime, such as

  4. Higher-order statistical moments and a procedure that detects potentially anomalous years as two alternative methods describing alterations in continuous environmental data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of central tendency and dispersion may not capture relevant or desired characteristics of the distribution of continuous phenomena and, thus, they may not adequately describe temporal patterns of change. Here, we present two methodological approaches that can help to identify temporal changes in environmental regimes. First, we use higher-order statistical moments (skewness and kurtosis) to examine potential changes of empirical distributions at decadal extents. Second, we adapt a statistical procedure combining a non-metric multidimensional scaling technique and higher density region plots to detect potentially anomalous years. We illustrate the use of these approaches by examining long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-influenced streams. In particular, we contrast predictions about thermal regime responses to changing climates and human-related water uses. Using these methods, we effectively diagnose years with unusual thermal variability and patterns in variability through time, as well as spatial variability linked to regional and local factors that influence stream temperature. Our findings highlight the complexity of responses of thermal regimes of streams and reveal their differential vulnerability to climate warming and human-related water uses. The two approaches presented here can be applied with a variety of other continuous phenomena to address historical changes, extreme events, and their associated ecological responses.

  5. O-regime dynamics and modeling in Tore Supra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turco, F.; Giruzzi, G.; Imbeaux, F.; Udintsev, V. S.; Artaud, J. F.; Barana, O.; Dumont, R.; Mazon, D.; Ségui, J.-L.

    2009-06-01

    The regime of nonlinear temperature oscillations (O-regime), characteristic of noninductive discharges on Tore Supra [Équipe Tore Supra, Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Plasma Physics and Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research, Nice, France, 1988 (International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1989), Vol. 1, p. 9], is investigated in its triggering and suppressing mechanism. This regime can be described by two nonlinearly coupled equations for the current density j(r ) and the electron temperature Te(r) where the equation coefficients are functions of j and Te themselves. Both the integrated modeling code CRONOS [V. Basiuk et al., Nucl. Fusion 43, 822 (2003)] and a two-patch predator-prey system with diffusion and noise have been used and results have been compared to the experimental observations of the O-regime. A database of discharges is analyzed which features monotonic, flat, and reversed safety factor (q) profiles in order to characterize the action of external actuators on the regime dynamics with the widest generality. Electron cyclotron current drive and neutral beam injections have been used in order to induce localized perturbations in the total current profile j(r ) as well as to change the plasma confinement conditions in the central region. Magnetic shear perturbations and modifications of the heat transport turn out to be the central parameters governing the dynamics of the O-regime.

  6. Predictive Models of the Hydrological Regime of Unregulated Streams in Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anning, David W.; Parker, John T.C.

    2009-01-01

    Three statistical models were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality to improve the predictability of flow occurrence in unregulated streams throughout Arizona. The models can be used to predict the probabilities of the hydrological regime being one of four categories developed by this investigation: perennial, which has streamflow year-round; nearly perennial, which has streamflow 90 to 99.9 percent of the year; weakly perennial, which has streamflow 80 to 90 percent of the year; or nonperennial, which has streamflow less than 80 percent of the year. The models were developed to assist the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality in selecting sites for participation in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program. One model was developed for each of the three hydrologic provinces in Arizona - the Plateau Uplands, the Central Highlands, and the Basin and Range Lowlands. The models for predicting the hydrological regime were calibrated using statistical methods and explanatory variables of discharge, drainage-area, altitude, and location data for selected U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations and a climate index derived from annual precipitation data. Models were calibrated on the basis of streamflow data from 46 stations for the Plateau Uplands province, 82 stations for the Central Highlands province, and 90 stations for the Basin and Range Lowlands province. The models were developed using classification trees that facilitated the analysis of mixed numeric and factor variables. In all three models, a threshold stream discharge was the initial variable to be considered within the classification tree and was the single most important explanatory variable. If a stream discharge value at a station was below the threshold, then the station record was determined as being nonperennial. If, however, the stream discharge was above the threshold

  7. Online recognition of the multiphase flow regime and study of slug flow in pipeline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liejin, Guo; Bofeng, Bai; Liang, Zhao; Xin, Wang; Hanyang, Gu

    2009-02-01

    Multiphase flow is the phenomenon existing widely in nature, daily life, as well as petroleum and chemical engineering industrial fields. The interface structure among multiphase and their movement are complicated, which distribute random and heterogeneously in the spatial and temporal scales and have multivalue of the flow structure and state[1]. Flow regime is defined as the macro feature about the multiphase interface structure and its distribution, which is an important feature to describe multiphase flow. The energy and mass transport mechanism differ much for each flow regimes. It is necessary to solve the flow regime recognition to get a clear understanding of the physical phenomena and their mechanism of multiphase flow. And the flow regime is one of the main factors affecting the online measurement accuracy of phase fraction, flow rate and other phase parameters. Therefore, it is of great scientific and technological importance to develop new principles and methods of multiphase flow regime online recognition, and of great industrial background. In this paper, the key reasons that the present method cannot be used to solve the industrial multiphase flow pattern recognition are clarified firstly. Then the prerequisite to realize the online recognition of multiphase flow regime is analyzed, and the recognition rules for partial flow pattern are obtained based on the massive experimental data. The standard templates for every flow regime feature are calculated with self-organization cluster algorithm. The multi-sensor data fusion method is proposed to realize the online recognition of multiphase flow regime with the pressure and differential pressure signals, which overcomes the severe influence of fluid flow velocity and the oil fraction on the recognition. The online recognition method is tested in the practice, which has less than 10 percent measurement error. The method takes advantages of high confidence, good fault tolerance and less requirement of

  8. Direct numerical simulations and spectral modeling of premixed turbulent combustion in the flamelet regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulitsky, Mark

    1997-11-01

    A model for premixed turbulent combustion in the so called 'flamelet regime' has been developed. This regime, often referred to as the fast chemistry or high Damkohler number regime, is characterized by turbulent length and time scales that are much larger and slower than the flame thickness and reaction time scales respectively. There is currently great interest in trying to better understand flamelet combustion, as many practical devices (i.e., spark ignition engines, gas turbines, etc.) have been found to operate in this regime. Before a model could be developed however, it was first necessary to ascertain which part of the turbulence (either the nearly Gaussian background turbulence or the tube-like coherent vortical structures) was responsible for the multi-scale wrinkling of the flame surface. This question motivated a DNS study of flames passing through both structure containing the structure free isotropic turbulence. After it was determined that the presence of the coherent structures was merely ancillary in terms of increasing the surface area of the flame, a spectral model based on the EDQNM (Eddy Damped Quasi Normal Markovian) theory of turbulence was developed. This theory implicitly assumes that joint distributions of the fluctuating velocity components are nearly Gaussian, and as only spectra are transported in this model, there is no direct information about any of the coherent structures which might be embedded within the flow field. One of the advantages of this model is that both the Reynolds number and the ratio of the rms fluctuating velocity to the laminar flame speed can be varied independently. To test the model's ability to capture the nonlinear dynamics of the governing field equation a DNS study was performed and both steady-state and transient single- and two-point statistics were compared. Finally, the model was compared to two-point experimental measurements taken from a lean premixed methane-air flame.

  9. Film thickness for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.

    1980-01-01

    Film thickness equations are provided for four fluid-film lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts. These regimes are isoviscous-rigid; viscous-rigid; elastohydrodynamic lubrication of low-elastic-modulus materials (soft EHL), or isoviscous-elastic; and elastohydrodynamic lubrication of high-elastic-modulus materials (hard EHL), or viscous-elastic. The influence or lack of influence of elastic and viscous effects is the factor that distinguishes these regimes. The results are presented as a map of the lubrication regimes, with film thickness contours on a log-log grid of the viscosity and elasticity for three values of the ellipticity parameter.

  10. Extended linear regime of cavity-QED enhanced optical circular birefringence induced by a charged quantum dot

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, C. Y.; Rarity, J. G.

    2015-02-01

    Giant optical Faraday rotation (GFR) and giant optical circular birefringence (GCB) induced by a single quantum-dot spin in an optical microcavity can be regarded as linear effects in the weak-excitation approximation if the input field lies in the low-power limit [Hu et al., Phys. Rev. B 78, 085307 (2008), 10.1103/PhysRevB.78.085307; Hu et al., Phys. Rev. B 80, 205326 (2009), 10.1103/PhysRevB.80.205326]. In this work, we investigate the transition from the weak-excitation approximation moving into the saturation regime comparing a semiclassical approximation with the numerical results from a quantum optics toolbox [Tan, J. Opt. B 1, 424 (1999), 10.1088/1464-4266/1/4/312]. We find that the GFR and GCB around the cavity resonance in the strong-coupling regime are input field independent at intermediate powers and can be well described by the semiclassical approximation. Those associated with the dressed state resonances in the strong-coupling regime or merging with the cavity resonance in the Purcell regime are sensitive to input field at intermediate powers, and cannot be well described by the semiclassical approximation due to the quantum-dot saturation. As the GFR and GCB around the cavity resonance are relatively immune to the saturation effects, the rapid readout of single-electron spins can be carried out with coherent state and other statistically fluctuating light fields. This also shows that high-speed quantum entangling gates, robust against input power variations, can be built exploiting these linear effects.

  11. Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes

    PubMed Central

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji

    2018-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations. PMID:29619289

  12. Radiative effects of global MODIS cloud regimes.

    PubMed

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji

    2016-03-16

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations.

  13. Radiative Effects of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oraiopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dong Min; Kato, Seiji

    2016-01-01

    We update previously published MODIS global cloud regimes (CRs) using the latest MODIS cloud retrievals in the Collection 6 dataset. We implement a slightly different derivation method, investigate the composition of the regimes, and then proceed to examine several aspects of CR radiative appearance with the aid of various radiative flux datasets. Our results clearly show the CRs are radiatively distinct in terms of shortwave, longwave and their combined (total) cloud radiative effect. We show that we can clearly distinguish regimes based on whether they radiatively cool or warm the atmosphere, and thanks to radiative heating profiles to discern the vertical distribution of cooling and warming. Terra and Aqua comparisons provide information about the degree to which morning and afternoon occurrences of regimes affect the symmetry of CR radiative contribution. We examine how the radiative discrepancies among multiple irradiance datasets suffering from imperfect spatiotemporal matching depend on CR, and whether they are therefore related to the complexity of cloud structure, its interpretation by different observational systems, and its subsequent representation in radiative transfer calculations.

  14. MOND as a regime of quantum gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolin, Lee

    2017-10-01

    We propose that there is a regime of quantum gravity phenomena, for the case that the cosmological constant is small and positive, which concerns physics at temperatures below the de Sitter temperature, or length scales larger than the horizon. We observe that the standard form of the equivalence principle does not apply in this regime; we consider instead that a weakened form of the equivalence principle might hold in which the ratio of gravitational to inertial mass is a function of environmental parameters. We consider possible principles to determine that function. These lead to behavior that, in the limit of ℏ→0 and c →∞ , reproduces the modifications of Newtonian dynamics first proposed by Milgrom. Thus modified newtonian dynamics is elucidated as coding the physics of a novel regime of quantum gravity phenomena. We propose also an effective description of this regime in terms of a bimetric theory, valid in the approximation where the metric is static. This predicts a new effect, which modifies gravity for radial motions.

  15. Dune growth under multidirectional wind regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadal, C.; Rozier, O.; Claudin, P.; Courrech Du Pont, S.; Narteau, C.

    2017-12-01

    Under unidirectional wind regimes, flat sand beds become unstable to produce periodic linear dunes, commonly called transverse dunes because their main ridges are oriented perpendicular to the air flow. In areas of low sediment availability, the same interactions between flow, transport and topography produce barchan dunes, isolated sand-pile migrating over long distances with a characteristic crescentic shape. For the last fifteen years, barchan dunes and the instability at the origin of transverse dunes have been the subject of numerous studies that have identified a set of characteristic length and time scales with respect to the physical properties of both grains and fluid. This is not the case for dunes developing under multidirectional wind regimes. Under these conditions, dune orientation is measured with respect to the direction of the resultant sand flux. Depending on the wind regime, dunes do not always line up perpendicularly to the resultant sand flux, but can also be at an oblique angle or even parallel to it. These oblique and longitudinal dunes are ubiquitous in all deserts on Earth and planetary bodies because of the seasonal variability of wind orientation. They are however poorly constrained by observations and there is still no complete theoretical framework providing a description of their orientation and initial wavelength. Here, we extend the linear stability analysis of a flat sand of bed done in two dimensions for a unidirectional flow to three dimensions and multidirectional flow regimes. We are able to recover transitions from transverse to oblique or longitudinal dune patterns according to changes in wind regimes. We besides give a prediction for the initial dune wavelength. Our results compare well to previous theory of dune orientation and to field, experimental and numerical data.

  16. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sundstrom, Shana M.; Eason, Tarsha; Nelson, R. John; Angeler, David G.; Barichievy, Chris; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Graham, Nicholas A.J.; Granholm, Dean; Gunderson, Lance; Knutson, Melinda; Nash, Kirsty L.; Spanbauer, Trisha; Stow, Craig A.; Allen, Craig R.

    2017-01-01

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory-based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (U.S. Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps and multivariate analyses such as nMDS and cluster analysis. We successfully detected spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change.

  17. New results in gravity dependent two-phase flow regime mapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurwitz, Cable; Best, Frederick

    2002-01-01

    Accurate prediction of thermal-hydraulic parameters, such as the spatial gas/liquid orientation or flow regime, is required for implementation of two-phase systems. Although many flow regime transition models exist, accurate determination of both annular and slug regime boundaries is not well defined especially at lower flow rates. Furthermore, models typically indicate the regime as a sharp transition where data may indicate a transition space. Texas A&M has flown in excess of 35 flights aboard the NASA KC-135 aircraft with a unique two-phase package. These flights have produced a significant database of gravity dependent two-phase data including visual observations for flow regime identification. Two-phase flow tests conducted during recent zero-g flights have added to the flow regime database and are shown in this paper with comparisons to selected transition models. .

  18. Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

    PubMed Central

    Westerling, Anthony L.; Turner, Monica G.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.; Romme, William H.; Ryan, Michael G.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests. PMID:21788495

  19. Tuning the photon statistics of a strongly coupled nanophotonic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dory, Constantin; Fischer, Kevin A.; Müller, Kai; Lagoudakis, Konstantinos G.; Sarmiento, Tomas; Rundquist, Armand; Zhang, Jingyuan L.; Kelaita, Yousif; Sapra, Neil V.; Vučković, Jelena

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the dynamics of single- and multiphoton emission from detuned strongly coupled systems based on the quantum-dot-photonic-crystal resonator platform. Transmitting light through such systems can generate a range of nonclassical states of light with tunable photon counting statistics due to the nonlinear ladder of hybridized light-matter states. By controlling the detuning between emitter and resonator, the transmission can be tuned to strongly enhance either single- or two-photon emission processes. Despite the strongly dissipative nature of these systems, we find that by utilizing a self-homodyne interference technique combined with frequency filtering we are able to find a strong two-photon component of the emission in the multiphoton regime. In order to explain our correlation measurements, we propose rate equation models that capture the dominant processes of emission in both the single- and multiphoton regimes. These models are then supported by quantum-optical simulations that fully capture the frequency filtering of emission from our solid-state system.

  20. Assessing the Institution of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Toomey, Christopher

    2010-05-14

    The nuclear nonproliferation regime is facing a crisis of effectiveness. During the Cold War, the regime was relatively effective in stemming the proliferation of nuclear weapons and building an institutional structure that could, under certain conditions, ensure continued success. However, in the evolving global context, the traditional approaches are becoming less appropriate. Globalization has introduced new sets of stresses on the nonproliferation regime, such as the rise of non-state actors, broadening extensity and intensity of supply chains, and the multipolarization of power. This evolving global context demands an analytical and political flexibility in order to meet future threats. Current institutionalmore » capabilities established during the Cold War are now insufficient to meet the nonproliferation regime’s current and future needs. The research was based on information gathered through interviews and reviews of the relevant literature, and two dominant themes emerged. First, that human security should be integrated into the regime to account for the rise of non-state actors and networked violence. Second, confidence in the regime’s overall effectiveness has eroded at a time where verification-based confidence is becoming more essential. The research postulates that a critical analysis of the regime that fully utilizes institutional theory, with its focus on rules, normative structures, and procedures will be essential to adapting the regime to the current global context, building mechanisms for generating trust, creating better enforcement, and providing flexibility for the future.« less

  1. Phase transition dynamics for hot nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borderie, B.; Le Neindre, N.; Rivet, M. F.; Désesquelles, P.; Bonnet, E.; Bougault, R.; Chbihi, A.; Dell'Aquila, D.; Fable, Q.; Frankland, J. D.; Galichet, E.; Gruyer, D.; Guinet, D.; La Commara, M.; Lombardo, I.; Lopez, O.; Manduci, L.; Napolitani, P.; Pârlog, M.; Rosato, E.; Roy, R.; St-Onge, P.; Verde, G.; Vient, E.; Vigilante, M.; Wieleczko, J. P.; Indra Collaboration

    2018-07-01

    An abnormal production of events with almost equal-sized fragments was theoretically proposed as a signature of spinodal instabilities responsible for nuclear multifragmentation in the Fermi energy domain. On the other hand finite size effects are predicted to strongly reduce this abnormal production. High statistics quasifusion hot nuclei produced in central collisions between Xe and Sn isotopes at 32 and 45 A MeV incident energies have been used to definitively establish, through the experimental measurement of charge correlations, the presence of spinodal instabilities. N/Z influence was also studied.

  2. Turbulence as a Problem in Non-equilibrium Statistical Mechanics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldenfeld, Nigel; Shih, Hong-Yan

    2017-05-01

    The transitional and well-developed regimes of turbulent shear flows exhibit a variety of remarkable scaling laws that are only now beginning to be systematically studied and understood. In the first part of this article, we summarize recent progress in understanding the friction factor of turbulent flows in rough pipes and quasi-two-dimensional soap films, showing how the data obey a two-parameter scaling law known as roughness-induced criticality, and exhibit power-law scaling of friction factor with Reynolds number that depends on the precise form of the nature of the turbulent cascade. These results hint at a non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation that applies to turbulent flows. The second part of this article concerns the lifetime statistics in smooth pipes around the transition, showing how the remarkable super-exponential scaling with Reynolds number reflects deep connections between large deviation theory, extreme value statistics, directed percolation and the onset of coexistence in predator-prey ecosystems. Both these phenomena reflect the way in which turbulence can be fruitfully approached as a problem in non-equilibrium statistical mechanics.

  3. VizieR Online Data Catalog: Supernova matter EOS (Buyukcizmeci+, 2014)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buyukcizmeci, N.; Botvina, A. S.; Mishustin, I. N.

    2017-03-01

    The Statistical Model for Supernova Matter (SMSM) was developed in Botvina & Mishustin (2004, PhLB, 584, 233 ; 2010, NuPhA, 843, 98) as a direct generalization of the Statistical Multifragmentation Model (SMM; Bondorf et al. 1995, PhR, 257, 133). We treat supernova matter as a mixture of nuclear species, electrons, and photons in statistical equilibrium. The SMSM EOS tables cover the following ranges of control parameters: 1. Temperature: T = 0.2-25 MeV; for 35 T values. 2. Electron fraction Ye: 0.02-0.56; linear mesh of Ye = 0.02, giving 28 Ye values. It is equal to the total proton fraction Xp, due to charge neutrality. 3. Baryon number density fraction {rho}/{rho}0 = (10-8-0.32), giving 31 {rho}/{rho}0 values. (2 data files).

  4. Evaluating rainfall errors in global climate models through cloud regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Jackson; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Jakob, Christian; Jin, Daeho

    2017-07-01

    Global climate models suffer from a persistent shortcoming in their simulation of rainfall by producing too much drizzle and too little intense rain. This erroneous distribution of rainfall is a result of deficiencies in the representation of underlying processes of rainfall formation. In the real world, clouds are precursors to rainfall and the distribution of clouds is intimately linked to the rainfall over the area. This study examines the model representation of tropical rainfall using the cloud regime concept. In observations, these cloud regimes are derived from cluster analysis of joint-histograms of cloud properties retrieved from passive satellite measurements. With the implementation of satellite simulators, comparable cloud regimes can be defined in models. This enables us to contrast the rainfall distributions of cloud regimes in 11 CMIP5 models to observations and decompose the rainfall errors by cloud regimes. Many models underestimate the rainfall from the organized convective cloud regime, which in observation provides half of the total rain in the tropics. Furthermore, these rainfall errors are relatively independent of the model's accuracy in representing this cloud regime. Error decomposition reveals that the biases are compensated in some models by a more frequent occurrence of the cloud regime and most models exhibit substantial cancellation of rainfall errors from different regimes and regions. Therefore, underlying relatively accurate total rainfall in models are significant cancellation of rainfall errors from different cloud types and regions. The fact that a good representation of clouds does not lead to appreciable improvement in rainfall suggests a certain disconnect in the cloud-precipitation processes of global climate models.

  5. Outcome regimes of binary raindrop collisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Testik, Firat Y.

    2009-11-01

    This study delineates the physical conditions that are responsible for the occurrence of main outcome regimes (i.e., bounce, coalescence, and breakup) for binary drop collisions with a precipitation microphysics perspective. Physical considerations based on the collision kinetic energy and the surface energies of the colliding drops lead to the development of a theoretical regime diagram for the drop/raindrop collision outcomes in the We- p plane ( We — Weber number, p — raindrop diameter ratio). This theoretical regime diagram is supported by laboratory experimental observations of drop collisions using high-speed imaging. Results of this fundamental study bring in new insights into the quantitative understanding of drop dynamics, applications of which extend beyond precipitation microphysics. In particular, results of this drop collision study are expected to give impetus to the physics-based dynamic modeling of the drop size distributions that is essential for various typical modern engineering applications, including numerical modeling of evolution of raindrop size distribution in rain shaft.

  6. The AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF)

    PubMed Central

    Audigé, Laurent; Slongo, Theddy; Lutz, Nicolas; Blumenthal, Andrea; Joeris, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Background and purpose The AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF) describes the localization and morphology of fractures, and considers severity in 2 categories: (1) simple, and (2) multifragmentary. We evaluated simple and multifragmentary fractures in a large consecutive cohort of children diagnosed with long bone fractures in Switzerland. Patients and methods Children and adolescents treated for fractures between 2009 and 2011 at 2 tertiary pediatric surgery hospitals were retrospectively included. Fractures were classified according to the AO PCCF. Severity classes were described according to fracture location, patient age and sex, BMI, and cause of trauma. Results Of all trauma events, 3% (84 of 2,730) were diagnosed with a multifragmentary fracture. This proportion was age-related: 2% of multifragmentary fractures occurred in school­children and 7% occurred in adolescents. In patients diagnosed with a single fracture only, the highest percentage of multifragmentation occurred in the femur (12%, 15 of 123). In fractured paired radius/ulna bones, multifragmentation occurred in 2% (11 of 687); in fractured paired tibia/fibula bones, it occurred in 21% (24 of 115), particularly in schoolchildren (5 of 18) and adolescents (16 of 40). In a multivariable regression model, age, cause of injury, and bone were found to be relevant prognostic factors of multifragmentation (odds ratio (OR) > 2). Interpretation Overall, multifragmentation in long bone fractures in children was rare and was mostly observed in adolescents. The femur was mostly affected in single fractures and the lower leg was mostly affected in paired-bone fractures. The clinical relevance of multifragmentation regarding growth and long-term functional recovery remains to be determined. PMID:27882814

  7. The AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF).

    PubMed

    Audigé, Laurent; Slongo, Theddy; Lutz, Nicolas; Blumenthal, Andrea; Joeris, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    Background and purpose - The AO Pediatric Comprehensive Classification of Long Bone Fractures (PCCF) describes the localization and morphology of fractures, and considers severity in 2 categories: (1) simple, and (2) multifragmentary. We evaluated simple and multifragmentary fractures in a large consecutive cohort of children diagnosed with long bone fractures in Switzerland. Patients and methods - Children and adolescents treated for fractures between 2009 and 2011 at 2 tertiary pediatric surgery hospitals were retrospectively included. Fractures were classified according to the AO PCCF. Severity classes were described according to fracture location, patient age and sex, BMI, and cause of trauma. Results - Of all trauma events, 3% (84 of 2,730) were diagnosed with a multifragmentary fracture. This proportion was age-related: 2% of multifragmentary fractures occurred in school-children and 7% occurred in adolescents. In patients diagnosed with a single fracture only, the highest percentage of multifragmentation occurred in the femur (12%, 15 of 123). In fractured paired radius/ulna bones, multifragmentation occurred in 2% (11 of 687); in fractured paired tibia/fibula bones, it occurred in 21% (24 of 115), particularly in schoolchildren (5 of 18) and adolescents (16 of 40). In a multivariable regression model, age, cause of injury, and bone were found to be relevant prognostic factors of multifragmentation (odds ratio (OR) > 2). Interpretation - Overall, multifragmentation in long bone fractures in children was rare and was mostly observed in adolescents. The femur was mostly affected in single fractures and the lower leg was mostly affected in paired-bone fractures. The clinical relevance of multifragmentation regarding growth and long-term functional recovery remains to be determined.

  8. Regime shifts driven by dynamic correlations in gene expression noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Yogita; Dutta, Partha Sharathi

    2017-08-01

    Gene expression is a noisy process that leads to regime shifts between alternative steady states among individual living cells, inducing phenotypic variability. The effects of white noise on the regime shift in bistable systems have been well characterized, however little is known about such effects of colored noise (noise with nonzero correlation time). Here, we show that noise correlation time, by considering a genetic circuit of autoactivation, can have a significant effect on the regime shift between distinct phenotypic states in gene expression. We demonstrate this theoretically, using stochastic potential, stationary probability density function, and first-passage time based on the Fokker-Planck description, where the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is used to model colored noise. We find that an increase in noise correlation time in the degradation rate can induce a regime shift from a low to a high protein concentration state and enhance the bistable regime, while an increase in noise correlation time in the basal rate retains the bimodal distribution. We then show how cross-correlated colored noises in basal and degradation rates can induce regime shifts from a low to a high protein concentration state, but reduce the bistable regime. We also validate these results through direct numerical simulations of the stochastic differential equation. In gene expression understanding the causes of regime shift to a harmful phenotype could improve early therapeutic intervention in complex human diseases.

  9. Observational limitations of Bose-Einstein photon statistics and radiation noise in thermal emission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Y.-J.; Talghader, J. J.

    2018-01-01

    For many decades, theory has predicted that Bose-Einstein statistics are a fundamental feature of thermal emission into one or a few optical modes; however, the resulting Bose-Einstein-like photon noise has never been experimentally observed. There are at least two reasons for this: (1) Relationships to describe the thermal radiation noise for an arbitrary mode structure have yet to be set forth, and (2) the mode and detector constraints necessary for the detection of such light is extremely hard to fulfill. Herein, photon statistics and radiation noise relationships are developed for systems with any number of modes and couplings to an observing space. The results are shown to reproduce existing special cases of thermal emission and are then applied to resonator systems to discuss physically realizable conditions under which Bose-Einstein-like thermal statistics might be observed. Examples include a single isolated cavity and an emitter cavity coupled to a small detector space. Low-mode-number noise theory shows major deviations from solely Bose-Einstein or Poisson treatments and has particular significance because of recent advances in perfect absorption and subwavelength structures both in the long-wave infrared and terahertz regimes. These microresonator devices tend to utilize a small volume with few modes, a regime where the current theory of thermal emission fluctuations and background noise, which was developed decades ago for free-space or single-mode cavities, has no derived solutions.

  10. An Examination of the Nature of Global MODIS Cloud Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin; Kato, Seiji; Huffman, George J.

    2014-01-01

    We introduce global cloud regimes (previously also referred to as "weather states") derived from cloud retrievals that use measurements by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. The regimes are obtained by applying clustering analysis on joint histograms of retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. By employing a compositing approach on data sets from satellites and other sources, we examine regime structural and thermodynamical characteristics. We establish that the MODIS cloud regimes tend to form in distinct dynamical and thermodynamical environments and have diverse profiles of cloud fraction and water content. When compositing radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instrument and surface precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, we find that regimes with a radiative warming effect on the atmosphere also produce the largest implied latent heat. Taken as a whole, the results of the study corroborate the usefulness of the cloud regime concept, reaffirm the fundamental nature of the regimes as appropriate building blocks for cloud system classification, clarify their association with standard cloud types, and underscore their distinct radiative and hydrological signatures.

  11. FISHER INFORMATION AS A METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE REGIMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The important question in sustainability is not whether the world is sustainable, but whether a humanly acceptable regime of the world is sustainable. We propose Fisher Information as a metric for the sustainability of dynamic regimes in complex systems. The quantity now known ...

  12. Regimes of turbulence without an energy cascade

    PubMed Central

    Barenghi, C. F.; Sergeev, Y. A.; Baggaley, A. W.

    2016-01-01

    Experiments and numerical simulations of turbulent 4He and 3He-B have established that, at hydrodynamic length scales larger than the average distance between quantum vortices, the energy spectrum obeys the same 5/3 Kolmogorov law which is observed in the homogeneous isotropic turbulence of ordinary fluids. The importance of the 5/3 law is that it points to the existence of a Richardson energy cascade from large eddies to small eddies. However, there is also evidence of quantum turbulent regimes without Kolmogorov scaling. This raises the important questions of why, in such regimes, the Kolmogorov spectrum fails to form, what is the physical nature of turbulence without energy cascade, and whether hydrodynamical models can account for the unusual behaviour of turbulent superfluid helium. In this work we describe simple physical mechanisms which prevent the formation of Kolmogorov scaling in the thermal counterflow, and analyze the conditions necessary for emergence of quasiclassical regime in quantum turbulence generated by injection of vortex rings at low temperatures. Our models justify the hydrodynamical description of quantum turbulence and shed light into an unexpected regime of vortex dynamics. PMID:27761005

  13. Transport Regimes Spanning Magnetization-Coupling Phase Space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baalrud, Scott D.; Tiwari, Sanat; Daligault, Jerome

    2017-10-01

    The manner in which transport properties vary over the entire parameter-space of coupling and magnetization strength is explored. Four regimes are identified based on the relative size of the gyroradius compared to other fundamental length scales: the collision mean free path, Debye length, distance of closest approach and interparticle spacing. Molecular dynamics simulations of self-diffusion and temperature anisotropy relaxation spanning the parameter space are found to agree well with the predicted boundaries. Comparison with existing theories reveals regimes where they succeed, where they fail, and where no theory has yet been developed. The results suggest that magnetic fields may be used to assist ultracold neutral plasma experiments to reach regimes of stronger electron coupling by reducing heating of electrons in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field.. By constraining electron motion along the direction of the magnetic field, the overall electron temperature is reduced nearly by a factor of three. A large temperature anisotropy develops as a result, which can be maintained for a long time in the regime of high electron magnetization. Work supported by LDRD project 20150520ER at LANL, AFOSR FA9550-16-1-0221 and US DOE Award DE-SC00161.

  14. Characteristics of level-spacing statistics in chaotic graphene billiards.

    PubMed

    Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

    2011-03-01

    A fundamental result in nonrelativistic quantum nonlinear dynamics is that the spectral statistics of quantum systems that possess no geometric symmetry, but whose classical dynamics are chaotic, are described by those of the Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE) or the Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), in the presence or absence of time-reversal symmetry, respectively. For massless spin-half particles such as neutrinos in relativistic quantum mechanics in a chaotic billiard, the seminal work of Berry and Mondragon established the GUE nature of the level-spacing statistics, due to the combination of the chirality of Dirac particles and the confinement, which breaks the time-reversal symmetry. A question is whether the GOE or the GUE statistics can be observed in experimentally accessible, relativistic quantum systems. We demonstrate, using graphene confinements in which the quasiparticle motions are governed by the Dirac equation in the low-energy regime, that the level-spacing statistics are persistently those of GOE random matrices. We present extensive numerical evidence obtained from the tight-binding approach and a physical explanation for the GOE statistics. We also find that the presence of a weak magnetic field switches the statistics to those of GUE. For a strong magnetic field, Landau levels become influential, causing the level-spacing distribution to deviate markedly from the random-matrix predictions. Issues addressed also include the effects of a number of realistic factors on level-spacing statistics such as next nearest-neighbor interactions, different lattice orientations, enhanced hopping energy for atoms on the boundary, and staggered potential due to graphene-substrate interactions.

  15. Wind regimes and their relation to synoptic variables using self-organizing maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berkovic, Sigalit

    2018-01-01

    This study exemplifies the ability of the self-organizing maps (SOM) method to directly define well known wind regimes over Israel during the entire year, except summer period, at 12:00 UTC. This procedure may be applied at other hours and is highly relevant to future automatic climatological analysis and applications. The investigation is performed by analysing surface wind measurements from 53 Israel Meteorological Service stations. The relation between the synoptic variables and the wind regimes is revealed from the averages of ECMWF ERA-INTERIM reanalysis variables for each SOM wind regime. The inspection of wind regimes and their average geopotential anomalies has shown that wind regimes relate to the gradient of the pressure anomalies, rather than to the specific isobars pattern. Two main wind regimes - strong western and the strong eastern or northern - are well known over this region. The frequencies of the regimes according to seasons is verified. Strong eastern regimes are dominant during winter, while strong western regimes are frequent in all seasons.

  16. Technical Note: Higher-order statistical moments and a procedure that detects potentially anomalous years as two alternative methods describing alterations in continuous environmental data

    Treesearch

    I. Arismendi; S. L. Johnson; J. B. Dunham

    2015-01-01

    Statistics of central tendency and dispersion may not capture relevant or desired characteristics of the distribution of continuous phenomena and, thus, they may not adequately describe temporal patterns of change. Here, we present two methodological approaches that can help to identify temporal changes in environmental regimes. First, we use higher-order statistical...

  17. Do family policy regimes matter for children's well-being?

    PubMed

    Engster, Daniel; Stensöta, Helena Olofsdotter

    2011-01-01

    Researchers have studied the impact of different welfare state regimes, and particularly family policy regimes, on gender equality. Very little research has been conducted, however, on the association between different family policy regimes and children's well-being. This article explores how the different family policy regimes of twenty OECD countries relate to children's well-being in the areas of child poverty, child mortality, and educational attainment and achievement. We focus specifically on three family policies: family cash and tax benefits, paid parenting leaves, and public child care support. Using panel data for the years 1995, 2000, and 2005, we test the association between these policies and child well-being while holding constant for a number of structural and policy variables. Our analysis shows that the dual-earner regimes, combining high levels of support for paid parenting leaves and public child care, are strongly associated with low levels of child poverty and child mortality. We find little long-term effect of family policies on educational achievement, but a significant positive correlation between high family policy support and higher educational attainment. We conclude that family policies have a significant impact on improving children's well-being, and that dual-earner regimes represent the best practice for promoting children's health and development.

  18. Statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Dong-Hua; Yu, Xiao-Wen; Suo, Yuan-Yuan

    2012-06-01

    We choice the yuan exchange rate index based on a basket of currencies as the effective exchange rate of the yuan and investigate the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index after China's exchange rate system reform on the 21st July 2005. After dividing the time series into two parts according to the change in the yuan exchange rate regime in July 2008, we compare the statistical properties of the yuan exchange rate index during these two periods. We find that the distribution of the two return series has the exponential form. We also perform the detrending moving average analysis (DMA) and the multifractal detrending moving average analysis (MFDMA). The two periods possess different degrees of long-range correlations, and the multifractal nature is also unveiled in these two time series. Significant difference is found in the scaling exponents τ(q) and singularity spectra f(α) of the two periods obtained from the MFDMA analysis. Besides, in order to detect the sources of multifractality, shuffling and phase randomization procedures are applied to destroy the long-range temporal correlation and fat-tailed distribution of the yuan exchange rate index respectively. We find that the fat-tailedness plays a critical role in the sources of multifractality in the first period, while the long memory is the major cause in the second period. The results suggest that the change in China's exchange rate regime in July 2008 gives rise to the different multifractal properties of the yuan exchange rate index in these two periods, and thus has an effect on the effective exchange rate of the yuan after the exchange rate reform on the 21st July 2005.

  19. Effective control of complex turbulent dynamical systems through statistical functionals.

    PubMed

    Majda, Andrew J; Qi, Di

    2017-05-30

    Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among complex systems in science and engineering, including climate, material, and neural science. Control of these complex systems is a grand challenge, for example, in mitigating the effects of climate change or safe design of technology with fully developed shear turbulence. Control of flows in the transition to turbulence, where there is a small dimension of instabilities about a basic mean state, is an important and successful discipline. In complex turbulent dynamical systems, it is impossible to track and control the large dimension of instabilities, which strongly interact and exchange energy, and new control strategies are needed. The goal of this paper is to propose an effective statistical control strategy for complex turbulent dynamical systems based on a recent statistical energy principle and statistical linear response theory. We illustrate the potential practical efficiency and verify this effective statistical control strategy on the 40D Lorenz 1996 model in forcing regimes with various types of fully turbulent dynamics with nearly one-half of the phase space unstable.

  20. Theoretical flow regime diagrams for the AGCE

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fowlis, W. W.; Miller, T. L.; Roberts, G. O.; Kopecky, K. J.

    1984-01-01

    The major criterion for the design of the Atmospheric General Circulation Experiment is that it be possible to realize strong baroclinic instability in the apparatus. A spherical annulus configuration which allows only steady basic state flows was chosen for the first set of stability analyses. Baroclinic instability was found for this configuration and few results suggest a regime diagram very different from the cylindrical annulus regime diagram.

  1. The Role of Competition in Structuring Primate Communities under Different Productivity Regimes in the Amazon

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, Juliana Monteiro de Almeida; Pinto, Míriam Plaza; Boubli, Jean Philippe; Grelle, Carlos Eduardo Viveiros

    2015-01-01

    The factors responsible for the formation of Amazonian primate communities are not well understood. Here we investigated the influence of interspecific competition in the assembly of these communities, specifically whether they follow an assembly rule known as "favored states". According to this rule, interspecific competition influences final species composition, resulting in functional groups that are equally represented in the community. We compiled presence-absence data for primate species at 39 Amazonian sites in Brazil, contrasting two regions with distinct productivity regimes: the eutrophic Juruá River basin and the oligotrophic Negro River basin. We tested two hypotheses: that interspecific competition is a mechanism that influences the structure of Amazonian primate communities, and that competition has had a greater influence on the structure of primate communities in regions with low productivity, where resources are more limited. We used null models to test the statistical significance of the results, and found a non-random pattern compatible with the favored states rule in the two regions. Our findings suggest that interspecific competition is an important force driving primate community assembly regardless of productivity regimes. PMID:26696089

  2. Effect of catchment properties and flood generation regime on copula selection for bivariate flood frequency analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Filipova, Valeriya; Lawrence, Deborah; Klempe, Harald

    2018-02-01

    Applying copula-based bivariate flood frequency analysis is advantageous because the results provide information on both the flood peak and volume. More data are, however, required for such an analysis, and it is often the case that only data series with a limited record length are available. To overcome this issue of limited record length, data regarding climatic and geomorphological properties can be used to complement statistical methods. In this paper, we present a study of 27 catchments located throughout Norway, in which we assess whether catchment properties, flood generation processes and flood regime have an effect on the correlation between flood peak and volume and, in turn, on the selection of copulas. To achieve this, the annual maximum flood events were first classified into events generated primarily by rainfall, snowmelt or a combination of these. The catchments were then classified into flood regime, depending on the predominant flood generation process producing the annual maximum flood events. A contingency table and Fisher's exact test were used to determine the factors that affect the selection of copulas in the study area. The results show that the two-parameter copulas BB1 and BB7 are more commonly selected in catchments with high steepness, high mean annual runoff and rainfall flood regime. These findings suggest that in these types of catchments, the dependence structure between flood peak and volume is more complex and cannot be modeled effectively using a one-parameter copula. The results illustrate that by relating copula types to flood regime and catchment properties, additional information can be supplied for selecting copulas in catchments with limited data.

  3. Regime shifts and resilience in China's coastal ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Ke

    2016-02-01

    Regime shift often results in large, abrupt, and persistent changes in the provision of ecosystem services and can therefore have significant impacts on human wellbeing. Understanding regime shifts has profound implications for ecosystem recovery and management. China's coastal ecosystems have experienced substantial deterioration within the past decades, at a scale and speed the world has never seen before. Yet, information about this coastal ecosystem change from a dynamics perspective is quite limited. In this review, I synthesize existing information on coastal ecosystem regime shifts in China and discuss their interactions and cascading effects. The accumulation of regime shifts in China's coastal ecosystems suggests that the desired system resilience has been profoundly eroded, increasing the potential of abrupt shifts to undesirable states at a larger scale, especially given multiple escalating pressures. Policy and management strategies need to incorporate resilience approaches in order to cope with future challenges and avoid major losses in China's coastal ecosystem services.

  4. [Heath and political regimes: presidential or parliamentary government for Colombia?].

    PubMed

    Idrovo, Alvaro J

    2007-01-01

    Changing the presidential regime for a parliamentarian one is currently be-ing discussed in Colombia. This preliminary study explores the potential effects on health of both presidential and parliamentary regimes by using world-wide data. An ecological study was undertaken using countries from which comparable information concerning life-expectancy at birth, political regime, economic development, inequality in income, social capital (as measured by general-ised trust or Corruption Perceptions Index), political rights, civil freedom and cultural diversity could be obtained. Life-expectancy at birth and macro-determinants were compared between both political regimes. The co-relationship between these macro-determinants was estimated and the relationship between political regimen and life-expectancy at birth was estimated using robust regression. Crude analysis revealed that parliamentary countries have greater life-expectancy at birth than countries having a presidential regime. Significant co-relationships between all macro-determinants were observed. No differential effects were observed between both political regimes regarding life-expectancy at birth in multiple robust regressions. There is no evidence that presidential or parliamentary regimes provide greater levels of health for the population. It is suggested that public health policies be focused on other macro-determinants having more known effects on health, such as income inequality.

  5. Scaling biodiversity responses to hydrological regimes.

    PubMed

    Rolls, Robert J; Heino, Jani; Ryder, Darren S; Chessman, Bruce C; Growns, Ivor O; Thompson, Ross M; Gido, Keith B

    2018-05-01

    Of all ecosystems, freshwaters support the most dynamic and highly concentrated biodiversity on Earth. These attributes of freshwater biodiversity along with increasing demand for water mean that these systems serve as significant models to understand drivers of global biodiversity change. Freshwater biodiversity changes are often attributed to hydrological alteration by water-resource development and climate change owing to the role of the hydrological regime of rivers, wetlands and floodplains affecting patterns of biodiversity. However, a major gap remains in conceptualising how the hydrological regime determines patterns in biodiversity's multiple spatial components and facets (taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic). We synthesised primary evidence of freshwater biodiversity responses to natural hydrological regimes to determine how distinct ecohydrological mechanisms affect freshwater biodiversity at local, landscape and regional spatial scales. Hydrological connectivity influences local and landscape biodiversity, yet responses vary depending on spatial scale. Biodiversity at local scales is generally positively associated with increasing connectivity whereas landscape-scale biodiversity is greater with increasing fragmentation among locations. The effects of hydrological disturbance on freshwater biodiversity are variable at separate spatial scales and depend on disturbance frequency and history and organism characteristics. The role of hydrology in determining habitat for freshwater biodiversity also depends on spatial scaling. At local scales, persistence, stability and size of habitat each contribute to patterns of freshwater biodiversity yet the responses are variable across the organism groups that constitute overall freshwater biodiversity. We present a conceptual model to unite the effects of different ecohydrological mechanisms on freshwater biodiversity across spatial scales, and develop four principles for applying a multi-scaled understanding of

  6. The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whitman, Ellen; Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Miller, Carol; Coop, Jonathan D.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Chong, Geneva W.; Haire, Sandra L.

    2015-01-01

    Aim. Studies of fire activity along environmental gradients have been undertaken, but the results of such studies have yet to be integrated with fire-regime analysis. We characterize fire-regime components along climate gradients and a gradient of human influence. Location. We focus on a climatically diverse region of north-western North America extending from northern British Columbia, Canada, to northern Utah and Colorado, USA.Methods. We used a multivariate framework to collapse 12 climatic variables into two major climate gradients and binned them into 73 discrete climate domains. We examined variation in fire-regime components (frequency, size, severity, seasonality and cause) across climate domains. Fire-regime attributes were compiled from existing databases and Landsat imagery for 1897 large fires. Relationships among the fire-regime components, climate gradients and human influence were examined through bivariate regressions. The unique contribution of human influence was also assessed.Results. A primary climate gradient of temperature and summer precipitation and a secondary gradient of continentality and winter precipitation in the study area were identified. Fire occupied a distinct central region of such climate space, within which fire-regime components varied considerably. We identified significant interrelations between fire-regime components of fire size, frequency, burn severity and cause. The influence of humans was apparent in patterns of burn severity and ignition cause.Main conclusions. Wildfire activity is highest where thermal and moisture gradients converge to promote fuel production, flammability and ignitions. Having linked fire-regime components to large-scale climate gradients, we show that fire regimes – like the climate that controls them – are a part of a continuum, expanding on models of varying constraints on fire activity. The observed relationships between fire-regime components, together with the distinct role of climatic

  7. Possible mechanisms for four regimes associated with cold events over East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Zifan; Huang, Wenyu; Wang, Bin; Chen, Ruyan; Wright, Jonathon S.; Ma, Wenqian

    2017-09-01

    Circulation patterns associated with cold events over East Asia during the winter months of 1948-2014 are classified into four regimes by applying a k-means clustering method based on the area-weighted pattern correlation. The earliest precursor signals for two regimes are anticyclonic anomalies, which evolve into Ural and central Siberian blocking-like circulation patterns. The earliest precursor signals for the other two regimes are cyclonic anomalies, both of which evolve to amplify the East Asian trough (EAT). Both the blocking-like circulation patterns and amplified EAT favor the initialization of cold events. On average, the blocking-related regimes tend to last longer. The lead time of the earliest precursor signal for the central Siberian blocking-related regime is only 4 days, while those for the other regimes range from 16 to 18 days. The North Atlantic Oscillation plays essential roles both in triggering the precursor for the Ural blocking-related regime and in amplifying the precursors for all regimes. All regimes preferentially occur during the positive phase of the Eurasian teleconnection pattern and the negative phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. For three regimes, surface cooling is primarily due to reduced downward infrared radiation and enhanced cold advection. For the remaining regime, which is associated with the southernmost cooling center, sensible and latent heat release and horizontal cold advection dominate the East Asian cooling.

  8. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto. (b) The term MTCR...

  9. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... restrict sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto; (b) The...

  10. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... restrict sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto; (b) The...

  11. 22 CFR 120.29 - Missile Technology Control Regime.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Missile Technology Control Regime. 120.29... DEFINITIONS § 120.29 Missile Technology Control Regime. (a) For purposes of this subchapter, Missile... restrict sensitive missile-relevant transfers based on the MTCR Annex, and any amendments thereto; (b) The...

  12. Dynamic regime marginal structural mean models for estimation of optimal dynamic treatment regimes, Part II: proofs of results.

    PubMed

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M

    2010-03-03

    In this companion article to "Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content" [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption.

  13. Electron transport fluxes in potato plateau regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaing, K. C.; Hazeltine, R. D.

    1997-12-01

    Electron transport fluxes in the potato plateau regime are calculated from the solutions of the drift kinetic equation and fluid equations. It is found that the bootstrap current density remains finite in the region close to the magnetic axis, although it decreases with increasing collision frequency. This finite amount of the bootstrap current in the relatively collisional regime is important in modeling tokamak startup with 100% bootstrap current.

  14. Regime Change and the Role of Airpower

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-08-01

    cut off aid to Batista, Samoza, Marcos , and the Shah. Each dictator sub- sequently fell.”11 Like the domestic winning coalition, foreign countries and...Vice Pres. Hubert Humphrey provides a robust example of a regime change in a democracy. The previous sections detailed 34 AMERICAN REGIME CHANGE how...the Democrats and draw support away from the incumbent candidate, Vice Pres. Hubert Humphrey. Even among Johnson’s advocates and personal advisors

  15. Transition probability, dynamic regimes, and the critical point of financial crisis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Yinan; Chen, Ping

    2015-07-01

    An empirical and theoretical analysis of financial crises is conducted based on statistical mechanics in non-equilibrium physics. The transition probability provides a new tool for diagnosing a changing market. Both calm and turbulent markets can be described by the birth-death process for price movements driven by identical agents. The transition probability in a time window can be estimated from stock market indexes. Positive and negative feedback trading behaviors can be revealed by the upper and lower curves in transition probability. Three dynamic regimes are discovered from two time periods including linear, quasi-linear, and nonlinear patterns. There is a clear link between liberalization policy and market nonlinearity. Numerical estimation of a market turning point is close to the historical event of the US 2008 financial crisis.

  16. Statistical evidence of strain induced breaking of metallic point contacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alwan, Monzer; Candoni, Nadine; Dumas, Philippe; Klein, Hubert R.

    2013-06-01

    A scanning tunneling microscopy in break junction regime and a mechanically controllable break junction are used to acquire thousands of conductance-elongation curves by stretching until breaking and re-connecting Au junctions. From a robust statistical analysis performed on large sets of experiments, parameters such as lifetime, elongation and occurrence probabilities are extracted. The analysis of results obtained for different stretching speeds of the electrodes indicates that the breaking mechanism of di- and mono-atomic junction is identical, and that the junctions undergo atomic rearrangement during their stretching and at the moment of breaking.

  17. A theoretical model of strong and moderate El Niño regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takahashi, Ken; Karamperidou, Christina; Dewitte, Boris

    2018-02-01

    The existence of two regimes for El Niño (EN) events, moderate and strong, has been previously shown in the GFDL CM2.1 climate model and also suggested in observations. The two regimes have been proposed to originate from the nonlinearity in the Bjerknes feedback, associated with a threshold in sea surface temperature (T_c ) that needs to be exceeded for deep atmospheric convection to occur in the eastern Pacific. However, although the recent 2015-16 EN event provides a new data point consistent with the sparse strong EN regime, it is not enough to statistically reject the null hypothesis of a unimodal distribution based on observations alone. Nevertheless, we consider the possibility suggestive enough to explore it with a simple theoretical model based on the nonlinear Bjerknes feedback. In this study, we implemented this nonlinear mechanism in the recharge-discharge (RD) ENSO model and show that it is sufficient to produce the two EN regimes, i.e. a bimodal distribution in peak surface temperature (T) during EN events. The only modification introduced to the original RD model is that the net damping is suppressed when T exceeds T_c , resulting in a weak nonlinearity in the system. Due to the damping, the model is globally stable and it requires stochastic forcing to maintain the variability. The sustained low-frequency component of the stochastic forcing plays a key role for the onset of strong EN events (i.e. for T>T_c ), at least as important as the precursor positive heat content anomaly (h). High-frequency forcing helps some EN events to exceed T_c , increasing the number of strong events, but the rectification effect is small and the overall number of EN events is little affected by this forcing. Using the Fokker-Planck equation, we show how the bimodal probability distribution of EN events arises from the nonlinear Bjerknes feedback and also propose that the increase in the net feedback with increasing T is a necessary condition for bimodality in the RD

  18. Statistics, Computation, and Modeling in Cosmology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewell, Jeff; Guiness, Joe; SAMSI 2016 Working Group in Cosmology

    2017-01-01

    Current and future ground and space based missions are designed to not only detect, but map out with increasing precision, details of the universe in its infancy to the present-day. As a result we are faced with the challenge of analyzing and interpreting observations from a wide variety of instruments to form a coherent view of the universe. Finding solutions to a broad range of challenging inference problems in cosmology is one of the goals of the “Statistics, Computation, and Modeling in Cosmology” workings groups, formed as part of the year long program on ‘Statistical, Mathematical, and Computational Methods for Astronomy’, hosted by the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute (SAMSI), a National Science Foundation funded institute. Two application areas have emerged for focused development in the cosmology working group involving advanced algorithmic implementations of exact Bayesian inference for the Cosmic Microwave Background, and statistical modeling of galaxy formation. The former includes study and development of advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed to confront challenging inference problems including inference for spatial Gaussian random fields in the presence of sources of galactic emission (an example of a source separation problem). Extending these methods to future redshift survey data probing the nonlinear regime of large scale structure formation is also included in the working group activities. In addition, the working group is also focused on the study of ‘Galacticus’, a galaxy formation model applied to dark matter-only cosmological N-body simulations operating on time-dependent halo merger trees. The working group is interested in calibrating the Galacticus model to match statistics of galaxy survey observations; specifically stellar mass functions, luminosity functions, and color-color diagrams. The group will use subsampling approaches and fractional factorial designs to statistically and

  19. Methodology Development of a Gas-Liquid Dynamic Flow Regime Transition Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doup, Benjamin Casey

    Current reactor safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5, TRACE, and CATHARE, use flow regime maps or flow regime transition criteria that were developed for static fully-developed two-phase flows to choose interfacial transfer models that are necessary to solve the two-fluid model. The flow regime is therefore difficult to identify near the flow regime transitions, in developing two-phase flows, and in transient two-phase flows. Interfacial area transport equations were developed to more accurately predict the dynamic nature of two-phase flows. However, other model coefficients are still flow regime dependent. Therefore, an accurate prediction of the flow regime is still important. In the current work, the methodology for the development of a dynamic flow regime transition model that uses the void fraction and interfacial area concentration obtained by solving three-field the two-fluid model and two-group interfacial area transport equation is investigated. To develop this model, detailed local experimental data are obtained, the two-group interfacial area transport equations are revised, and a dynamic flow regime transition model is evaluated using a computational fluid dynamics model. Local experimental data is acquired for 63 different flow conditions in bubbly, cap-bubbly, slug, and churn-turbulent flow regimes. The measured parameters are the group-1 and group-2 bubble number frequency, void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and interfacial bubble velocities. The measurements are benchmarked by comparing the prediction of the superficial gas velocities, determined using the local measurements with those determined from volumetric flow rate measurements and the agreement is generally within +/-20%. The repeatability four-sensor probe construction process is within +/-10%. The repeatability of the measurement process is within +/-7%. The symmetry of the test section is examined and the average agreement is within +/-5.3% at z/D = 10 and +/-3.4% at z/D = 32

  20. Ocean Modeling in an Eddying Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecht, Matthew W.; Hasumi, Hiroyasu

    This monograph is the first to survey progress in realistic simulation in a strongly eddying regime made possible by recent increases in computational capability. Its contributors comprise the leading researchers in this important and constantly evolving field. Divided into three parts, • Oceanographic Processes and Regimes: Fundamental Questions • Ocean Dynamics and State: From Regional to Global Scale, and • Modeling at the Mesoscale: State of the Art and Future Directions the volume details important advances in physical oceanography based on eddy resolving ocean modeling. It captures the state of the art and discusses issues that ocean modelers must consider in order to effectively contribute to advancing current knowledge, from subtleties of the underlying fluid dynamical equations to meaningful comparison with oceanographic observations and leading-edge model development. It summarizes many of the important results which have emerged from ocean modeling in an eddying regime, for those interested broadly in the physical science. More technical topics are intended to address the concerns of those actively working in the field.

  1. Modified unified kinetic scheme for all flow regimes.

    PubMed

    Liu, Sha; Zhong, Chengwen

    2012-06-01

    A modified unified kinetic scheme for the prediction of fluid flow behaviors in all flow regimes is described. The time evolution of macrovariables at the cell interface is calculated with the idea that both free transport and collision mechanisms should be considered. The time evolution of macrovariables is obtained through the conservation constraints. The time evolution of local Maxwellian distribution is obtained directly through the one-to-one mapping from the evolution of macrovariables. These improvements provide more physical realities in flow behaviors and more accurate numerical results in all flow regimes especially in the complex transition flow regime. In addition, the improvement steps introduce no extra computational complexity.

  2. Raman amplification in the coherent wave-breaking regime.

    PubMed

    Farmer, J P; Pukhov, A

    2015-12-01

    In regimes far beyond the wave-breaking threshold of Raman amplification, we show that significant amplification can occur after the onset of wave breaking, before phase mixing destroys the coherent coupling between pump, probe, and plasma wave. Amplification in this regime is therefore a transient effect, with the higher-efficiency "coherent wave-breaking" (CWB) regime accessed by using a short, intense probe. Parameter scans illustrate the marked difference in behavior between below wave breaking, in which the energy-transfer efficiency is high but total energy transfer is low, wave breaking, in which efficiency is low, and CWB, in which moderate efficiencies allow the highest total energy transfer.

  3. Analyzing the prices of the most expensive sheet iron all over the world: Modeling, prediction and regime change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Song, Fu-Tie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2010-09-01

    The private car license plates issued in Shanghai are bestowed the title of “the most expensive sheet iron all over the world”, more expensive than gold. A citizen has to bid in a monthly auction to obtain a license plate for his new private car. We perform statistical analysis to investigate the influence of the minimal price Pmin of the bidding winners, the quota N of private car license plates, the number N of bidders, as well as two external shocks including the legality debate of the auction in 2004 and the auction regime reform in January 2008 on the average price P of all bidding winners. It is found that the legality debate of the auction had marginal transient impact on the average price in a short time period. In contrast, the change of the auction rules has significant permanent influence on the average price, which reduces the price by about 3020 yuan Renminbi. It means that the average price exhibits nonlinear behaviors with a regime change. The evolution of the average price is independent of the number N of bidders in both regimes. In the early regime before January 2008, the average price P was influenced only by the minimal price Pmin in the preceding month with a positive correlation. In the current regime since January 2008, the average price is positively correlated with the minimal price and the quota in the preceding month and negatively correlated with the quota in the same month. We test the predictive power of the two models using 2-year and 3-year moving windows and find that the latter outperforms the former. It seems that the auction market becomes more efficient after the auction reform since the prediction error increases.

  4. AN INDEX TO DETECT EXTERNALLY-FORCED DYNAMIC REGIME SHIFTS IN ECOSYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The concept of dynamic regimes, and nonlinear shifts between regimes, has gained acceptance and importance in ecosystem research. Regimes in ecosystems are identified as states with characteristic species abundances and abiotic conditions. Ecosystems are maintained in particular ...

  5. Burning plasma regime for Fussion-Fission Research Facility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakharov, Leonid E.

    2010-11-01

    The basic aspects of burning plasma regimes of Fusion-Fission Research Facility (FFRF, R/a=4/1 m/m, Ipl=5 MA, Btor=4-6 T, P^DT=50-100 MW, P^fission=80-4000 MW, 1 m thick blanket), which is suggested as the next step device for Chinese fusion program, are presented. The mission of FFRF is to advance magnetic fusion to the level of a stationary neutron source and to create a technical, scientific, and technology basis for the utilization of high-energy fusion neutrons for the needs of nuclear energy and technology. FFRF will rely as much as possible on ITER design. Thus, the magnetic system, especially TFC, will take advantage of ITER experience. TFC will use the same superconductor as ITER. The plasma regimes will represent an extension of the stationary plasma regimes on HT-7 and EAST tokamaks at ASIPP. Both inductive discharges and stationary non-inductive Lower Hybrid Current Drive (LHCD) will be possible. FFRF strongly relies on new, Lithium Wall Fusion (LiWF) plasma regimes, the development of which will be done on NSTX, HT-7, EAST in parallel with the design work. This regime will eliminate a number of uncertainties, still remaining unresolved in the ITER project. Well controlled, hours long inductive current drive operation at P^DT=50-100 MW is predicted.

  6. Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part II: Proofs of Results*

    PubMed Central

    Orellana, Liliana; Rotnitzky, Andrea; Robins, James M.

    2010-01-01

    In this companion article to “Dynamic Regime Marginal Structural Mean Models for Estimation of Optimal Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Part I: Main Content” [Orellana, Rotnitzky and Robins (2010), IJB, Vol. 6, Iss. 2, Art. 7] we present (i) proofs of the claims in that paper, (ii) a proposal for the computation of a confidence set for the optimal index when this lies in a finite set, and (iii) an example to aid the interpretation of the positivity assumption. PMID:20405047

  7. Disciplinary Regimes of "Care" and Complementary Alternative Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomson, Pat; Pennacchia, Jodie

    2016-01-01

    In schools, the notion of "care" is often synonymous with welfare and disciplinary regimes. Drawing on Foucault, and a study of alternative education (AE) across the UK, and looking in depth at two cases of complementary AE, we identify three types of disciplinary regimes at work in schools: (1) dominant performative reward and…

  8. A neutral model of low-severity fire regimes

    Treesearch

    Don McKenzie; Amy E. Hessl

    2008-01-01

    Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire occurrence is a stochastic process, an understanding of baseline variability is necessary in order to identify constraints on surface fire regimes. With a suitable null, or neutral, model, characteristics of natural fire regimes estimated...

  9. Light focusing in the Anderson regime.

    PubMed

    Leonetti, Marco; Karbasi, Salman; Mafi, Arash; Conti, Claudio

    2014-07-29

    Anderson localization is a regime in which diffusion is inhibited and waves (also electromagnetic waves) get localized. Here we exploit adaptive optics to achieve focusing in disordered optical fibres in the Anderson regime. By wavefront shaping and optimization, we observe the generation of a propagation-invariant beam, where light is trapped transversally by disorder, and show that Anderson localizations can be also excited by extended speckled beams. We demonstrate that disordered fibres allow a more efficient focusing action with respect to standard fibres in a way independent of their length, because of the propagation-invariant features and cooperative action of transverse localizations.

  10. USING FISHER INFORMATION TO DETECT GRADUAL AND RAPID ECOSYSTEM REGIME SHIFTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or "flip" into the neighborhood of a regime with different characteristics. Although the possibility of such regime shifts...

  11. THE DYNAMIC REGIME CONCEPT FOR ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT AND RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Dynamic regimes of ecosystems are multidimensional basis of attraction, characterized by particular species communities and ecosystems processes. Ecosystem patterns and processes rarely respond linerarly to disturbances, and the nonlinear cynamic regime concept offers a more real...

  12. The Self-energy Of Growing Aggregates: "Strength Regime"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guimaraes, Ana H. F.; Spahn, F.; Seiss, M.; Brilliantov, N. V.

    2009-09-01

    The vivid appearance of the outer regions of Saturn's rings points to a balance of ongoing fragmentation and coagulation processes. This idea finds support especially in the F-ring, where collisional processes occur on an almost daily basis stirred by perturbations of the satellites Prometheus and Pandora, and in addition due the presence of putative moonlets. In order to quantify this balance in a kinetic theory we propose to calculate the resistivity of small agglomerates ("dynamic ephemeral bodies") against rupture due collisional processes and tidal pull. Earlies studies have shown that the resistivity of an aggregate is divided into two phases: "strength regime" and "gravitational regime". Early in their formation, small agglomerates are supported basically by their "glue" between the particles (adhesion) - "strength regime". For larger agglomerates the "gravitational regime" takes over provided their sizes to be bigger than a threshold in which the self-gravitational energy exceeds the adhesive binding energy, in this case the cluster's constituents are held together gravitationally. We calculated the self-energy caused by adhesion and gravity of ring's aggregates which has been considered as the threshold of impact energy or of tidal work to disrupt the agglomerate. Using a Ballistic Particle Cluster Aggregate Model (BPCA) we varied the densities of the aggregates and the size distribution of their constituents (1-10cm), calculated their self-energy and identified the transition between the "strength" to "gravitational regime". The transition between the regimes occurs at house-size aggregates (diameter of approximately 20m), a fact, that fits to the cut-off on the dense rings' main population (cm - 5m in size). Acknowledgments: A.H.F.G. thanks Dr. E. Vieira-Neto for the discussions, and also the DAAD and Uni-Potsdam for the financial support of this project.

  13. The prospects for magnetohydrodynamic stability in advanced tokamak regimes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Manickam, J.; Chance, M.S.; Jardin, S.C.

    1994-05-01

    Stability analysis of advanced regime tokamaks is presented. Here advanced regimes are defined to include configurations where the ratio of the bootstrap current, [ital I][sub BS], to the total plasma current, [ital I][sub [ital p

  14. Inertial flow regimes of the suspension of finite size particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lashgari, Iman; Picano, Francesco; Brandt, Luca

    2015-03-01

    We study inertial flow regimes of the suspensions of finite size neutrally buoyant particles. These suspensions experience three different regimes by varying the Reynolds number, Re , and particle volume fraction, Φ. At low values of Re and Φ, flow is laminar-like where viscous stress is the dominating term in the stress budget. At high Re and relatively small Φ, the flow is turbulent-like where Reynolds stress has the largest contribution to the total stress. At high Φ, the flow regime is as a form of inertial shear-thickening characterized by a significant enhancement in the wall shear stress not due to the increment of Reynolds stress but to the particle stress. We further analyze the local behavior of the suspension in the three different regimes by studying the particle dispersion and collisions. Turbulent cases shows higher level of particle dispersion and higher values of the collision kernel (the radial distribution function times the particle relative velocity as a function of the distance between the particles) than those of the inertial shear-thickening regimes providing additional evidence of two different transport mechanisms in the Bagnoldian regime. Support from the European Research Council (ERC) is acknowledged.

  15. Triggered dynamics in a model of different fault creep regimes

    PubMed Central

    Kostić, Srđan; Franović, Igor; Perc, Matjaž; Vasović, Nebojša; Todorović, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    The study is focused on the effect of transient external force induced by a passing seismic wave on fault motion in different creep regimes. Displacement along the fault is represented by the movement of a spring-block model, whereby the uniform and oscillatory motion correspond to the fault dynamics in post-seismic and inter-seismic creep regime, respectively. The effect of the external force is introduced as a change of block acceleration in the form of a sine wave scaled by an exponential pulse. Model dynamics is examined for variable parameters of the induced acceleration changes in reference to periodic oscillations of the unperturbed system above the supercritical Hopf bifurcation curve. The analysis indicates the occurrence of weak irregular oscillations if external force acts in the post-seismic creep regime. When fault motion is exposed to external force in the inter-seismic creep regime, one finds the transition to quasiperiodic- or chaos-like motion, which we attribute to the precursory creep regime and seismic motion, respectively. If the triggered acceleration changes are of longer duration, a reverse transition from inter-seismic to post-seismic creep regime is detected on a larger time scale. PMID:24954397

  16. Modeling Whistler Wave Generation Regimes In Magnetospheric Cyclotron Maser

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasmanik, D. L.; Demekhov, A. G.; Trakhtengerts, V. Y.; Parrot, M.

    Numerical analysis of the model for cyclotron instability development in the Earth magnetosphere is made.This model, based on the self-consistent set of equations of quasi-linear plasma theory, describes different regimes of wave generation and related energetic particle precipitation. As the source of free energy the injection of energetic electrons with transverse anisotropic distribution function to the interaction region is considered. Two different mechanisms of energetic electron loss from the interaction region are discussed. The first one is precipitation of energetic particles via the loss cone. The other mechanism is drift of particles away from the interaction region across the mag- netic field line. In the case of interaction in plasmasphere or rather large areas of cold plasma density enhancement the loss cone precipitation are dominant. For interaction in a subauroral duct losses due to drift are most effective. A parametric study of the model for both mechanisms of particle losses is made. The main attention is paid to the analysis of generation regimes for different characteristics of energetic electron source, such as the shape of pitch-angle distributions and elec- tron density. We show that in addition to the well-known stationary generation and periodic regime with successive spikes of similar shape, more complex forms of wave spectrum exist. In particular, we found a periodic regime, in which a single period in- cludes two separate spikes with different spectral shapes. In another regime, periodic generation of spikes at higher frequencies together with quasi-stationary generation at lower frequencies occurs. Quasi-periodic regime with spike overlapping, i.e. when generation of a new spike begins before the previous one is over is also found. Results obtained are compared with experimental data on quasi-periodic regimes of whistler wave generation.

  17. FISHER INFORMATION OF DYNAMIC REGIME TRANSITIONS IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystems often exhibit transitions between multiple dynamic regimes (or steady states). As ecosystems experience perturbations of varying regularity and intensity, they may either remain within the state space neighborhood of the current regime, or ?flip? into the neighborhood ...

  18. Precipitation Characteristics of ISCCP Cloud Regimes for Improving Model Hydrological Budgets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, D.; Oreopoulos, L.

    2011-01-01

    The key in unraveling relationships between precipitation and atmospheric circulations is their common linkage to clouds. Clouds can be described in a variety of ways and several approaches can be adopted to examine their connections to precipitation. We claim that when cloud regimes (aka weather states) from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to conditionally sample/sort and average precipitation data, useful insight and GCM-appropriate diagnostics on the origins and distribution of precipitation can be obtained. The ISCCP cloud regimes are mesoscale (2.5 ) cloud mixtures determined by cluster analysis on joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure inferred from geostationary and polar orbiter satellite passive retrievals. The ISCCP cloud regime data are combined with GPCP IDD merged surface precipitation data and/or higher temporal and spatial resolution TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) data. The analysis is performed separately for three geographical zones, tropics, and northern/southern midlatitudes (for GPCP; only the tropics can be examined with TMPA data). Our presentation aspires to provide answers to the following questions: (l) What is the mean and variability of surface precipitation produced by each cloud regime at the time of regime occurrence? (2) What is the relative contribution of each cloud regime to the total precipitation within its geographical zone? (3) What is the geographical distribution of precipitation corresponding to particular cloud regime? (4) To what extent are the cloud regimes distinct in terms of their precipitation characteristics and is the regime ordering in terms of convective strength consistent with the observed precipitation intensity?

  19. Planning for regime change and its aftermath

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2017-06-09

    countries’ governing regimes since 9/11–Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya–and U.S. policy at time of writing supports two more. Despite this experience...Iraq, and Libya–and U.S. policy at time of writing supports two more. Despite this experience, and the likely future need, the U.S. has no...time of writing , U.S. policy publicly supports regime change in Syria and North Korea. President Obama’s decision not to militarily intervene to

  20. Regime switching model for financial data: Empirical risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salhi, Khaled; Deaconu, Madalina; Lejay, Antoine; Champagnat, Nicolas; Navet, Nicolas

    2016-11-01

    This paper constructs a regime switching model for the univariate Value-at-Risk estimation. Extreme value theory (EVT) and hidden Markov models (HMM) are combined to estimate a hybrid model that takes volatility clustering into account. In the first stage, HMM is used to classify data in crisis and steady periods, while in the second stage, EVT is applied to the previously classified data to rub out the delay between regime switching and their detection. This new model is applied to prices of numerous stocks exchanged on NYSE Euronext Paris over the period 2001-2011. We focus on daily returns for which calibration has to be done on a small dataset. The relative performance of the regime switching model is benchmarked against other well-known modeling techniques, such as stable, power laws and GARCH models. The empirical results show that the regime switching model increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to the number of violations and tail-loss tests. This suggests that the regime switching model is a robust forecasting variant of power laws model while remaining practical to implement the VaR measurement.

  1. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability

    DOE PAGES

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-10-27

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model’s fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple ''weather regimes.'' To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, ''bred vectors'' and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemblemore » forecasts issued from clouds (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.« less

  2. Fixed points, stable manifolds, weather regimes, and their predictability.

    PubMed

    Deremble, Bruno; D'Andrea, Fabio; Ghil, Michael

    2009-12-01

    In a simple, one-layer atmospheric model, we study the links between low-frequency variability and the model's fixed points in phase space. The model dynamics is characterized by the coexistence of multiple "weather regimes." To investigate the transitions from one regime to another, we focus on the identification of stable manifolds associated with fixed points. We show that these manifolds act as separatrices between regimes. We track each manifold by making use of two local predictability measures arising from the meteorological applications of nonlinear dynamics, namely, "bred vectors" and singular vectors. These results are then verified in the framework of ensemble forecasts issued from "clouds" (ensembles) of initial states. The divergence of the trajectories allows us to establish the connections between zones of low predictability, the geometry of the stable manifolds, and transitions between regimes.

  3. Regimes of Two-Phase Flow in Short Rectangular Channel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinnov, Evgeny A.; Guzanov, Vladimir V.; Cheverda, Vyacheslav; Markovich, Dmitry M.; Kabov, Oleg A.

    2009-08-01

    Experimental study of two-phase flow in the short rectangular horizontal channel with height 440 μm has been performed. Characteristics of liquid motion inside the channel have been registered and measured by the Laser Induced Fluorescence technique. New information has allowed determining more precisely the characteristics of churn regime and boundaries between different regimes of two-phase flow. It was shown that formation of some two-phase flow regimes and transitions between them are determined by instability of the flow in the lateral parts of the channel.

  4. Natural flow regimes of the Ozark-Ouachita Interior Highlands region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Leasure, D. R.; Magoulick, Daniel D.; Longing, S. D.

    2016-01-01

    Natural flow regimes represent the hydrologic conditions to which native aquatic organisms are best adapted. We completed a regional river classification and quantitative descriptions of each natural flow regime for the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands region of Arkansas, Missouri and Oklahoma. On the basis of daily flow records from 64 reference streams, seven natural flow regimes were identified with mixture model cluster analysis: Groundwater Stable, Groundwater, Groundwater Flashy, Perennial Runoff, Runoff Flashy, Intermittent Runoff and Intermittent Flashy. Sets of flow metrics were selected that best quantified nine ecologically important components of these natural flow regimes. An uncertainty analysis was performed to avoid selecting metrics strongly affected by measurement uncertainty that can result from short periods of record. Measurement uncertainties (bias, precision and accuracy) were assessed for 170 commonly used flow metrics. The ranges of variability expected for select flow metrics under natural conditions were quantified for each flow regime to provide a reference for future assessments of hydrologic alteration. A random forest model was used to predict the natural flow regimes of all stream segments in the study area based on climate and catchment characteristics, and a map was produced. The geographic distribution of flow regimes suggested distinct ecohydrological regions that may be useful for conservation planning. This project provides a hydrologic foundation for future examination of flow–ecology relationships in the region. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  5. Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes.

    PubMed

    Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E R; Gómez-Dans, Jose L; Bradstock, Ross A

    2013-04-16

    Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes--size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent--and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict.

  6. Flow regimes and mechanistic modeling of critical heat flux under subcooled flow boiling conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Corre, Jean-Marie

    Thermal performance of heat flux controlled boiling heat exchangers are usually limited by the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) above which the heat transfer degrades quickly, possibly leading to heater overheating and destruction. In an effort to better understand the phenomena, a literature review of CHF experimental visualizations under subcooled flow boiling conditions was performed and systematically analyzed. Three major types of CHF flow regimes were identified (bubbly, vapor clot and slug flow regime) and a CHF flow regime map was developed, based on a dimensional analysis of the phenomena and available data. It was found that for similar geometric characteristics and pressure, a Weber number (We)/thermodynamic quality (x) map can be used to predict the CHF flow regime. Based on the experimental observations and the review of the available CHF mechanistic models under subcooled flow boiling conditions, hypothetical CHF mechanisms were selected for each CHF flow regime, all based on a concept of wall dry spot overheating, rewetting prevention and subsequent dry spot spreading. It is postulated that a high local wall superheat occurs locally in a dry area of the heated wall, due to a cyclical event inherent to the considered CHF two-phase flow regime, preventing rewetting (Leidenfrost effect). The selected modeling concept has the potential to span the CHF conditions from highly subcooled bubbly flow to early stage of annular flow. A numerical model using a two-dimensional transient thermal analysis of the heater undergoing nucleation was developed to mechanistically predict CHF in the case of a bubbly flow regime. In this type of CHF two-phase flow regime, the high local wall superheat occurs underneath a nucleating bubble at the time of bubble departure. The model simulates the spatial and temporal heater temperature variations during nucleation at the wall, accounting for the stochastic nature of the boiling phenomena. The model has also the potential to evaluate

  7. Process-informed extreme value statistics- Why and how?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schumann, Andreas; Fischer, Svenja

    2017-04-01

    In many parts of the world, annual maximum series (AMS) of runoff consist of flood peaks, which differ in their genesis. There are several aspects why these differences should be considered: Often multivariate flood characteristics (volumes, shapes) are of interest. These characteristics depend on the flood types. For regionalization, the main impacts on the flood regime has to be specified. If this regime depends on different flood types, type-specific hydro-meteorological and/or watershed characteristics are relevant. The ratios between event types often change over the range of observations. If a majority of events, which belongs to certain flood type, dominates the extrapolation of a probability distribution function (pdf), it is a problem if this more frequent type would not be typical for extraordinary large extremes, determining the right tail of the pdf. To consider differences in flood origin, several problems has to be solved. The events have to be separated into different groups according to their genesis. This can be a problem for long past events where e.g. precipitation data are not available. Another problem consists in the flood type-specific statistics. If block maxima are used, the sample of floods belong to a certain type is often incomplete as other events are overlaying smaller events. Some practical useable statistical tools to solve this and other problems are presented in a case study. Seasonal models were developed which differ between winter and summer floods but also between events with long and short timescales. The pdfs of the two groups of summer floods are combined via a new mixing model. The application to German watersheds demonstrates the advantages of the new model, giving specific influence to flood types.

  8. Flow Regime Study in a Circulating Fluidized Bed Riser with an Abrupt Exit: [1] High Density Suspension

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mei, J.S.; Lee, G.T.; Seachman, S.M.

    2008-05-13

    Flow regime study was conducted in a 0.3 m diameter, 15.5 m tall circulating fluidized bed (CFB) riser with an abrupt exit at the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U. S. Department of Energy. A statistical designed test series was conducted including four (4) operating set points and a duplicated center point (therefore a total of 6 operating set points). Glass beads of mean diameter 200 μm and particle density of 2,430 kg/m3 were used as bed material. The CFB riser was operated at various superficial gas velocities ranging from 5.6 to 7.6 m/s and solid mass flux frommore » a low of 86 to a high of 303 kg/m2-s. Results of the apparent solids fraction profile as well as the radial particle velocity profile were analyzed in order to identify the presence of Dense Suspension Upflow (DSU) conditions. DSU regime was found to exist at the bottom of the riser, while the middle section of the riser was still exhibiting core-annular flow structure. Due to the abrupt geometry of the exit, the DSU regime was also found at the top of the riser. In addition the effects of the azimuthal angle, riser gas velocity, and mass solids flux on the particle velocity were investigated and are discussed in this paper.« less

  9. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological ...

  10. FISHER INFORMATION AS A METRIC FOR SUSTAINABLE SYSTEM REGIMES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The important question in sustainability is not whether the world is sustainable, but whether a humanly acceptable regime of the world is sustainable. We propose Fisher Information as a metric for the sustainability of dynamic regimes in complex systems. The quantity now known ...

  11. A Tale of Two Regimes: Instrumentality and Commons Access

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Toly, Noah J.

    2005-01-01

    Technical developments have profound social and environmental impacts. Both are observed in the implications of regimes of instrumentality for commons access regimes. Establishing social, material, ecological, intellectual, and moral infrastructures, technologies are partly constitutive of commons access and may militate against governance…

  12. Cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime: comparing twice versus thrice vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Aljunid, Syed; Maimaiti, Namaitijiang; Nur, Amrizal M; Noor, Mohd Rushdan Md; Wan Puteh, Sharifa Ezat

    2016-01-23

    The HPV vaccine was introduced to Malaysian national immunization programme in 2010. The current implementation age of HPV vaccination in Malaysian is at the age of 13 years school girls, given according to a 3 doses protocol which may complicate implementation and compliance. Aim of the study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination regime comparing twice versus thrice HPV vaccinations dose regime among adolescent girls in Malaysia. A Markov cohort model reflecting the natural history of HPV infection accounting for oncogenic and low-risk HPV was adapted for 13 year old Malaysian girls cohort (n = 274,050). Transition probabilities, utilities values, epidemiological and cost data were sourced from published literature and local data. Vaccine effectiveness was based on overall efficacy reported from 3-doses clinical trials, with the assumption that the 2-doses is non-inferior to the 3-doses allowing overall efficacy to be inferred from the 3-doses immunogenicity data. Price parity and life-long protection were assumed. The payer perspective was adopted, with appropriate discounting for costs (3 %) and outcomes (3 %). One way sensitivity analysis was conducted. The sensitivity analysis on cost of vaccine, vaccine coverage and discount rate with a 2-doses protocol was performed. The 3-doses and 2-doses regimes showed same number of Cervical Cancers averted (361 cases); QALYs saved at 7,732,266. However, the lifetime protection under the 2-doses regime, showed a significant cost-savings of RM 36, 722,700 compared to the 3-doses scheme. The MOH Malaysia could vaccinate 137,025 more girls in this country using saving 2-doses regime vaccination programme. The model predicted that 2-doses HPV vaccination schemes can avoid additional 180 Cervical Cancers and 63 deaths compare to 3-doses. A 2-doses HPV vaccination scheme may enable Malaysian women to be protected at a lower cost than that achievable under a 3-doses scheme, while avoiding the same number of

  13. VEGETATION MEDIATED THE IMPACTS OF POSTGLACIAL CLIMATIC CHANGE ON FIRE REGIMES IN THE SOUTHCENTRAL BROOKS RANGE, ALASKA

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Higuera, P E; Brubaker, L B; Anderson, P M

    We examine direct and indirect impacts of millennial-scale climatic change on fire regimes in the southcentral Brooks Range, Alaska, using four lake-sediment records and existing paleoclimate interpretations. New techniques are introduced to identify charcoal peaks semi-objectively and detect statistical differences in fire regimes. Peaks in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) provide estimates of fire return intervals (FRIs) which are compared between vegetation zones described by fossil pollen and stomata. Climatic warming from ca 15-9 ka BP (calendar years before CE 1950) coincides with shifts in vegetation from herb tundra to shrub tundra to deciduous woodlands, all novel species assemblages relative tomore » modern vegetation. Two sites cover this period and show increased CHARs and decreased FRIs with the transition from herb to shrub tundra ca 13.3-14.3 ka BP. Short FRIs in the Betula-dominated shrub tundra (mean [m] FRI 144 yr; 95% CI 119-170) primarily reflect the effects of flammable, continuous fuels on the fire regime. FRIs increased significantly with the transition to Populus-dominated deciduous woodlands ca 10.5 ka BP (mFRI 251 yr [158-352]), despite evidence of warmer- and drier-than-present summers. We attribute reduced fire activity under these conditions to low flammability of deciduous fuels. Three sites record the mid to late Holocene, when cooler and moister conditions allowed Picea glauca forest-tundra and P. mariana boreal forests to establish ca 8 and 5.5 ka BP. Forest-tundra FRIs did not differ significantly from the previous period (mFRIs range from 131-238 yr), but FRIs decreased with the transition to boreal forest (mFRI 145 yr [129-163]). Overall, fire-regime shifts in the study area showed greater correspondence with vegetation characteristics than with inferred climate, and we conclude that vegetation mediated the impacts of millennial-scale climatic change on fire regimes by modifying landscape flammability. Our findings emphasize

  14. Statistical inference for noisy nonlinear ecological dynamic systems.

    PubMed

    Wood, Simon N

    2010-08-26

    Chaotic ecological dynamic systems defy conventional statistical analysis. Systems with near-chaotic dynamics are little better. Such systems are almost invariably driven by endogenous dynamic processes plus demographic and environmental process noise, and are only observable with error. Their sensitivity to history means that minute changes in the driving noise realization, or the system parameters, will cause drastic changes in the system trajectory. This sensitivity is inherited and amplified by the joint probability density of the observable data and the process noise, rendering it useless as the basis for obtaining measures of statistical fit. Because the joint density is the basis for the fit measures used by all conventional statistical methods, this is a major theoretical shortcoming. The inability to make well-founded statistical inferences about biological dynamic models in the chaotic and near-chaotic regimes, other than on an ad hoc basis, leaves dynamic theory without the methods of quantitative validation that are essential tools in the rest of biological science. Here I show that this impasse can be resolved in a simple and general manner, using a method that requires only the ability to simulate the observed data on a system from the dynamic model about which inferences are required. The raw data series are reduced to phase-insensitive summary statistics, quantifying local dynamic structure and the distribution of observations. Simulation is used to obtain the mean and the covariance matrix of the statistics, given model parameters, allowing the construction of a 'synthetic likelihood' that assesses model fit. This likelihood can be explored using a straightforward Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler, but one further post-processing step returns pure likelihood-based inference. I apply the method to establish the dynamic nature of the fluctuations in Nicholson's classic blowfly experiments.

  15. Studies of nuclei under the extreme conditions of density, temperature, isospin asymmetry and the phase diagram of hadronic matter

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Mekjian, Aram

    2016-10-18

    The main emphasis of the entire project is on issues having to do with medium energy and ultra-relativistic energy and heavy ion collisions. A major goal of both theory and experiment is to study properties of hot dense nuclear matter under various extreme conditions and to map out the phase diagram in density or chemical potential and temperature. My studies in medium energy nuclear collisions focused on the liquid-gas phase transition and cluster yields from such transitions. Here I developed both the statistical model of nuclear multi-fragmentation and also a mean field theory.

  16. Transient response of Salix cuttings to changing water level regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, L.; Signarbieux, C.; Turberg, P.; Buttler, A.; Perona, P.

    2015-03-01

    Sustainable water management requires an understanding of the effects of flow regulation on riparian ecomorphological processes. We investigated the transient response of Salix viminalis by examining the effect of water-level regimes on its above-ground and below-ground biomass. Four sets of Salix cuttings, three juveniles (in the first growing season) and one mature (1 year old), were planted and initially grown under the same water-level regime for 1 month. We imposed three different water-level regime treatments representing natural variability, a seasonal trend with no peaks, and minimal flow (characteristic of hydropower) consisting of a constant water level and natural flood peaks. We measured sap flux, stem water potential, photosynthesis, growth parameters, and final root architecture. The mature cuttings were not affected by water table dynamics, but the juveniles displayed causal relationships between the changing water regime, plant growth, and root distribution during a 2 month transient period. For example, a 50% drop in mean sap flux corresponded with a -1.5 Mpa decrease in leaf water potential during the first day after the water regime was changed. In agreement with published field observations, the cuttings concentrated their roots close to the mean water table of the corresponding treatment, allowing survival under altered conditions and resilience to successive stress events. Juvenile development was strongly impacted by the minimum flow regime, leading to more than 60% reduction of both above-ground and below-ground biomass, with respect to the other treatments. Hence, we suggest avoiding minimum flow regimes where Salix restoration is prioritized.

  17. Search for a new exchange-rate regime.

    PubMed

    Williamson, J

    1987-07-31

    The regime of unmanaged floating exchange rates was implicitly judged a failure when, with the Plaza Agreement, attempts at cooperative exchange-rate management were reintroduced primarily because of concern at the size of misalignments. Any satisfactory successor regime will need to limit misalignments while retaining the genuine social benefits of exchange-rate flexibility. It is argued that a system of target zones for exchange rates, ideally embedded in a more comprehensive set of guidelines for international economic policy coordination, could best reconcile these needs.

  18. What Do They Have in Common? Drivers of Streamflow Spatial Correlation and Prediction of Flow Regimes in Ungauged Locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betterle, A.; Radny, D.; Schirmer, M.; Botter, G.

    2017-12-01

    The spatial correlation of daily streamflows represents a statistical index encapsulating the similarity between hydrographs at two arbitrary catchment outlets. In this work, a process-based analytical framework is utilized to investigate the hydrological drivers of streamflow spatial correlation through an extensive application to 78 pairs of stream gauges belonging to 13 unregulated catchments in the eastern United States. The analysis provides insight on how the observed heterogeneity of the physical processes that control flow dynamics ultimately affect streamflow correlation and spatial patterns of flow regimes. Despite the variability of recession properties across the study catchments, the impact of heterogeneous drainage rates on the streamflow spatial correlation is overwhelmed by the spatial variability of frequency and intensity of effective rainfall events. Overall, model performances are satisfactory, with root mean square errors between modeled and observed streamflow spatial correlation below 10% in most cases. We also propose a method for estimating streamflow correlation in the absence of discharge data, which proves useful to predict streamflow regimes in ungauged areas. The method consists in setting a minimum threshold on the modeled flow correlation to individuate hydrologically similar sites. Catchment outlets that are most correlated (ρ>0.9) are found to be characterized by analogous streamflow distributions across a broad range of flow regimes.

  19. Alternative characterization of forest fire regimes: incorporating spatial patterns

    Treesearch

    Brandon M. Collins; Jens T. Stevens; Jay D. Miller; Scott L. Stephens; Peter M. Brown; Malcolm P. North

    2017-01-01

    ContextThe proportion of fire area that experienced stand-replacing fire effects is an important attribute of individual fires and fire regimes in forests, and this metric has been used to group forest types into characteristic fire regimes. However, relying on proportion alone ignores important spatial characteristics...

  20. Extractive Regimes: Toward a Better Understanding of Indonesian Development

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gellert, Paul K.

    2010-01-01

    This article proposes the concept of an extractive regime to understand Indonesia's developmental trajectory from 1966 to 1998. The concept contributes to world-systems, globalization, and commodity-based approaches to understanding peripheral development. An extractive regime is defined by its reliance on extraction of multiple natural resources…

  1. Space-Time Variability in River Flow Regimes of Northeast Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saris, F.; Hannah, D. M.; Eastwood, W. J.

    2011-12-01

    The northeast region of Turkey is characterised by relatively high annual precipitation totals and river flow. It is a mountainous region with high ecological status and also it is of prime interest to the energy sector. These characteristics make this region an important area for a hydroclimatology research in terms of future availability and management of water resources. However, there is not any previous research identifying hydroclimatological variability across the region. This study provides first comprehensive and detailed information on river flow regimes of northeast Turkey which is delimited by two major river basins namely East Black Sea (EBS) and Çoruh River (ÇRB) basins. A novel river flow classification is used that yields a large-scale perspective on hydroclimatology patterns of the region and allows interpretations regarding the controlling factors on river flow variability. River flow regimes are classified (with respect to timing and magnitude of flow) to examine spatial variability based on long-term average regimes, and also by grouping annual regimes for each station-year to identify temporal (between-year) variability. Results indicate that rivers in northeast Turkey are characterised by marked seasonal flow variation with an April-May-June maximum flow period. Spatial variability in flow regime seasonality is dependent largely on the topography of the study area. The EBS Basin, for which the North Anatolian Mountains cover the eastern part, is characterised by a May-June peak; whereas the ÇRB is defined by an April-May flow peak. The timing of river flows indicates that snowmelt is an important process and contributor of river flow maxima for both basins. The low flow season is January and February. Intermediate and low regime magnitude classes dominate in ÇRB and EBS basins, respectively, while high flow magnitude class is observed for one station only across the region. Result of regime stability analysis (year-to-year variation) shows

  2. Some Probabilistic and Statistical Properties of the Seismic Regime of Zemmouri (Algeria) Seismoactive Zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baddari, Kamel; Bellalem, Fouzi; Baddari, Ibtihel; Makdeche, Said

    2016-10-01

    Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter K sr, Hurst exponents H r and H t. The values of D, γ, K sr, H r, and H t diminished many months before the principal seismic shock ( M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.

  3. Effects of two long-term mowing regimes on vegetation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, M.C.; Deller, A.S.

    2000-01-01

    Wildlife managers have for many years been interested in the role of mowing as a management technique to benefit wildlife. Two long-term mowing regimes (60 years of similar management) were evaluated at Patuxent Research Refuge during the summer of 1997 to better understand the influence of mowing on vegetation communities. Mowing ceased in 1997 due to reduction in maintenance funds, which facilitated the identification of mature grasses. The previous mowing regimes included (1) lawn areas that had been mowed with rotary mowers approximately every 24 weeks and (2) meadow areas that had been mowed approximately once a year with a brushhog. Each regime had two replications. Vegetation was sampled in 20, 1 m2 plots per area (n=80) and percent cover visually estimated by species. The percent ground cover of the dominant vegetation on the lawn area was 40.0% red fescue (Festuca rubra), 26.5% white clover (Trifolium repens), and 18.0% Kentucky blue grass (Poa pratensis). The percent ground cover of the dominant vegetation in the meadow area was 33.2% meadow fescue (Festuca elatior), 9.9% sweet vernal grass (Anthoxanthum odoratum), 9.2% orchard grass (Dactylis glomerata), 6.3% Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica), and 5.2% red fescue. The sites were sampled again in 1999 with the major difference being the absence of white clover in the lawn areas, believed to be a result of the drought conditions in recent years. All percent ground covers for the dominant vegetation were significantly different (P<0.01) between the two mowing regimes. Species richness was higher in both years in the meadow regime (74, 62) versus the lawn regime (33, 23). Frequently mowed lawn areas may provide better grazing forage for herbivores, such as geese, rabbits, and deer, however, meadow areas may provide greater plant biomass (232 vs. 63 g/m2) and greater diversity of plant species. The meadow regime also appeared to have greater seed production and cover, which is favored by a wider

  4. A Global Classification of Contemporary Fire Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norman, S. P.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Hoffman, F. M.

    2014-12-01

    Fire regimes provide a sensitive indicator of changes in climate and human use as the concept includes fire extent, season, frequency, and intensity. Fires that occur outside the distribution of one or more aspects of a fire regime may affect ecosystem resilience. However, global scale data related to these varied aspects of fire regimes are highly inconsistent due to incomplete or inconsistent reporting. In this study, we derive a globally applicable approach to characterizing similar fire regimes using long geophysical time series, namely MODIS hotspots since 2000. K-means non-hierarchical clustering was used to generate empirically based groups that minimized within-cluster variability. Satellite-based fire detections are known to have shortcomings, including under-detection from obscuring smoke, clouds or dense canopy cover and rapid spread rates, as often occurs with flashy fuels or during extreme weather. Such regions are free from preconceptions, and the empirical, data-mining approach used on this relatively uniform data source allows the region structures to emerge from the data themselves. Comparing such an empirical classification to expectations from climate, phenology, land use or development-based models can help us interpret the similarities and differences among places and how they provide different indicators of changes of concern. Classifications can help identify where large infrequent mega-fires are likely to occur ahead of time such as in the boreal forest and portions of the Interior US West, and where fire reports are incomplete such as in less industrial countries.

  5. North Atlantic weather regimes: A synoptic study of phase space. M.S. Thesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orrhede, Anna Karin

    1990-01-01

    In the phase space of weather, low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere can be captured in a large scale subspace, where a trajectory connects consecutive large scale weather maps, thus revealing flow changes and recurrences. Using this approach, Vautard applied the trajectory speed minimization method (Vautard and Legras) to atmospheric data. From 37 winters of 700 mb geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and the adjacent land masses, four persistent and recurrent weather patterns, interpreted as weather regimes, were discernable: a blocking regime, a zonal regime, a Greenland anticyclone regime, and an Atlantic regime. These regimes are studied further in terms of maintenance and transitions. A regime survey unveils preferences regarding event durations and precursors for the onset or break of an event. The transition frequencies between regimes vary, and together with the transition times, suggest the existence of easier transition routes. These matters are more systematically studied using complete synoptic map sequences from a number of events.

  6. Hydrological and hydroclimatic regimes in the Ouergha watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Msatef, Karim; Benaabidate, Lahcen; Bouignane, Aziz

    2018-05-01

    This work consists in studying the hydrological and hydroclimatic regime of the Ouergha watershed and frequency analysis of extreme flows and extreme rainfall for peak estimation and return periods, in order to prevention and forecasting against risks (flood...). Hydrological regime analysis showed a regime of the rain type, characterized by rainfed abundance with very high winter flows, so strong floods. The annual module and the different coefficients show hydroclimatic fluctuations in relation to a semihumid climate. The water balance has highlighted the importance of the volumes of water conveyed upstream than downstream, thus confirming the morphometric parameters of watershed and the lithological nature. Frequency study of flows and extreme rainfall showed that these flows governed by dissymmetrical laws based on methods Gumbel, GEV, Gamma and Log Pearson III.

  7. Dominant takeover regimes for genetic algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noever, David; Baskaran, Subbiah

    1995-01-01

    The genetic algorithm (GA) is a machine-based optimization routine which connects evolutionary learning to natural genetic laws. The present work addresses the problem of obtaining the dominant takeover regimes in the GA dynamics. Estimated GA run times are computed for slow and fast convergence in the limits of high and low fitness ratios. Using Euler's device for obtaining partial sums in closed forms, the result relaxes the previously held requirements for long time limits. Analytical solution reveal that appropriately accelerated regimes can mark the ascendancy of the most fit solution. In virtually all cases, the weak (logarithmic) dependence of convergence time on problem size demonstrates the potential for the GA to solve large N-P complete problems.

  8. Impacts of Land Use Change on the Natural Flow Regime: A Case Study in the Meramec River Watershed in Eastern Missouri, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, C. L.; Knouft, J.; Chu, M.

    2017-12-01

    The natural flow regime within a watershed can be considered as the expected temporal patterns of streamflow variation in the absence of human impacts. While ecosystems have evolved to function under these conditions, the natural flow regime of most rivers has been significantly altered by human activities. Land use change, including the development of agriculture and urbanization, is a primary cause of the loss of natural flow regimes. These changes have altered discharge volume, timing, and variability, and consequently affected the structure and functioning of river ecosystems. The Meramec River watershed is located in east central Missouri and changes in land use have been the primary factor impacting flow regimes across the watershed. In this study, a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was developed to simulate a long-term time series of streamflow (1978-2014) within the watershed. Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics and graphical technique including R-squared, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, cumulative error, and 1:1-ratio comparison between observed and simulated variables. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to quantify the responses of the watershed when it was a forested natural landscape. An Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) approach was applied to characterize the flow regime under the current landcover conditions as well as the simulated natural flow regime under the no land use change scenario. Differences in intra- and inter-annual ecologically relevant flow metrics were then compared using SWAT model outputs in conjunction with the IHA approach based on model outputs from current and no land use change conditions. This study provides a watershed-scale understanding of effects of land use change on a river's flow variability and provides a framework for the development of restoration plans for heavily altered watersheds.

  9. MODIS Microphysical Regimes for Examining Apparent Aerosol Effects on Clouds and Precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oreopoulos, L.; Cho, N.; Lee, D.; Kato, S.; Lebsock, M. D.; Yuan, T.; Huffman, G. J.

    2014-12-01

    We use a 10-year record of MODIS Terra and Aqua Level-3 joint histograms of cloud optical thickness (COT) and cloud effective radius (CER) to derive so-called cloud microphysical regimes by means of clustering analysis. The regimes reveal the dominant modes of COT and CER co-variations around the globe for both liquid and ice phases. The clustering analysis is capable of separating regimes so that each is dominated by one of the two water phases and can be associated with previously derived "dynamical" regimes. The microphysical regimes serve as an appropriate basis to study possible effects of aerosols on cloud microphysical changes and precipitation. To this end, we employ MODIS aerosol loading measurements either in terms of aerosol index or aerosol optical depth and spatiotemporally matched precipitation (from either GPCP, TRMM or CloudSat) to examine intra-regime variability, regime transitions from morning (Terra) to afternoon (Aqua), and regime precipitation characteristics for locally low, average, and high aerosol loadings. Breakdowns by ocean/land and geographical zone (e.g., tropics vs. midlatitudes) are essential for physical interpretation of the results. The analysis conducted so far reveals notable differences in apparent characteristics of low- and high-cloud dominated microphysical regimes when in different aerosol environments. The presentation will attempt to examine whether the picture painted by our work is consistent with prevailing expectations, rooted to either modeling or prior observational studies, on how clouds and precipitation respond to distinct aerosol environments.

  10. Transport regimes spanning magnetization-coupling phase space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baalrud, Scott D.; Daligault, Jérôme

    2017-10-01

    The manner in which transport properties vary over the entire parameter-space of coupling and magnetization strength is explored. Four regimes are identified based on the relative size of the gyroradius compared to other fundamental length scales: the collision mean free path, Debye length, distance of closest approach, and interparticle spacing. Molecular dynamics simulations of self-diffusion and temperature anisotropy relaxation spanning the parameter space are found to agree well with the predicted boundaries. Comparison with existing theories reveals regimes where they succeed, where they fail, and where no theory has yet been developed.

  11. Quantum Regime of a Two-Dimensional Phonon Cavity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bolgar, Aleksey N.; Zotova, Julia I.; Kirichenko, Daniil D.; Besedin, Ilia S.; Semenov, Aleksander V.; Shaikhaidarov, Rais S.; Astafiev, Oleg V.

    2018-06-01

    We realize the quantum regime of a surface acoustic wave (SAW) resonator by demonstrating vacuum Rabi mode splitting due to interaction with a superconducting artificial atom. Reaching the quantum regime is physically difficult and technologically challenging since SAW devices consist of large arrays of narrow metal strips. This work paves the way for realizing analogues of quantum optical phenomena with phonons and can be useful in on-chip quantum electronics.

  12. System-focused environmental flow regime prescription, monitoring and adaptive management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hetherington, David; Lexartza Artza, Irantzu

    2016-04-01

    The definition of appropriate environmental flow regimes through hydropower schemes and water storage reservoirs is key part of mitigation. Insufficient (magnitude and variability) environmental flows can result in much environmental harm with negative impacts being encountered by morphological, ecological and societal systems. Conventionally, environmental flow regimes have been determined by using generic protocols and guidance such as the Tennant method of environmental flow estimation. It is generally accepted that such approaches to minimum environmental flow definition, although being a useful starting point, are not universally applicable across catchment typologies and climatic regions. Such approaches will not always produce conditions that would be associated with 'Good Ecological Status' under the Water framework Directive (or equivalent). Other similar approaches to minimum environmental flow estimation are used that are specific to geographies, yet still the associated guidance rarely thoroughly covers appropriate definition for healthy holistic systems across the flow regime. This paper draws on experience of system-focused environmental flow regime determination in the UK and the Georgian Caucasus Mountains, which allowed for a critical analysis of more conventional methods to be undertaken. The paper describes a recommended approach for determining appropriate environmental flow regimes based on analysis of the impacted geomorphological, ecological and societal systems in a way which is sensitive to the local holistic environment and associated complexities and interactions. The paper suggests that a strong understanding of the local geomorphology in key in predicting how flows will manifest habitat differently across the flow regime, and be spatially dynamic. Additionally, an understanding of the geomorphological system allows the flow of course and fine sediment to be factored into the initial suggested environmental flow regime. It is suggested

  13. Filter Tuning Using the Chi-Squared Statistic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lilly-Salkowski, Tyler

    2017-01-01

    measurements from the NASA space network (SN), which can be affected by the assumed accuracy of the TDRS satellite state at the time of the measurement.The force modelling in the EKF is also an important factor that affects the propagation accuracy and covariance sizing. The dominant force in the LEO orbit regime is the drag force caused by atmospheric drag. Accurate accounting of the drag force is especially important for the accuracy of the propagated state. The implementation of a box and wing model to improve drag estimation accuracy, and its overall effect on the covariance state is explored.The process of tuning the EKF for Aqua and Aura support is described, including examination of the measurement errors of available observation types (Doppler and range), and methods of dealing with potentially volatile atmospheric drag modeling. Predictive accuracy and the distribution of the Chi-square statistic, calculated based of the ODTK EKF solutions, are assessed versus accepted norms for the orbit regime.

  14. Extending the collisional fluid equations into the long mean-free-path regime in toroidal plasmas. IV. Banana regime

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Shaing, K. C.

    In Part I [Phys. Fluids B 2, 1190 (1990)] and Part II [Phys. Plasmas 12, 082508 (2005)], it was emphasized that the equilibrium plasma viscous forces when applied for the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes are only rigorously valid at the mode rational surface where m-nq=0. Here, m is the poloidal mode number, n is the toroidal mode number, and q is the safety factor. This important fact has been demonstrated explicitly by calculating the viscous forces in the plateau regime in Parts I and II. Here, the effective viscous forces in the banana regime are calculated for MHD modes by solvingmore » the linear drift kinetic equation that is driven by the plasma flows first derived in Part I. At the mode rational surface, the equilibrium plasma viscous forces are reproduced. However, it is found that away from the mode rational surface, the viscous forces for MHD modes decrease, a behavior similar to that observed in the viscous forces for the plateau regime. The proper form of the momentum equation that is appropriate for the modeling of the MHD modes is also discussed.« less

  15. Boolean logic analysis for flow regime recognition of gas-liquid horizontal flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramskill, Nicholas P.; Wang, Mi

    2011-10-01

    In order to develop a flowmeter for the accurate measurement of multiphase flows, it is of the utmost importance to correctly identify the flow regime present to enable the selection of the optimal method for metering. In this study, the horizontal flow of air and water in a pipeline was studied under a multitude of conditions using electrical resistance tomography but the flow regimes that are presented in this paper have been limited to plug and bubble air-water flows. This study proposes a novel method for recognition of the prevalent flow regime using only a fraction of the data, thus rendering the analysis more efficient. By considering the average conductivity of five zones along the central axis of the tomogram, key features can be identified, thus enabling the recognition of the prevalent flow regime. Boolean logic and frequency spectrum analysis has been applied for flow regime recognition. Visualization of the flow using the reconstructed images provides a qualitative comparison between different flow regimes. Application of the Boolean logic scheme enables a quantitative comparison of the flow patterns, thus reducing the subjectivity in the identification of the prevalent flow regime.

  16. The legacy of large regime shifts in shallow lakes.

    PubMed

    Ramstack Hobbs, Joy M; Hobbs, William O; Edlund, Mark B; Zimmer, Kyle D; Theissen, Kevin M; Hoidal, Natalie; Domine, Leah M; Hanson, Mark A; Herwig, Brian R; Cotner, James B

    2016-12-01

    Ecological shifts in shallow lakes from clear-water macrophyte-dominated to turbid-water phytoplankton-dominated are generally thought of as rapid short-term transitions. Diatom remains in sediment records from shallow lakes in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America provide new evidence that the long-term ecological stability of these lakes is defined by the legacy of large regime shifts. We examine the modern and historical stability of 11 shallow lakes. Currently, four of the lakes are in a clear-water state, three are consistently turbid-water, and four have been observed to change state from year to year (transitional). Lake sediment records spanning the past 150-200 yr suggest that (1) the diatom assemblage is characteristic of either clear or turbid lakes, (2) prior to significant landscape alteration, all of the lakes existed in a regime of a stable clear-water state, (3) lakes that are currently classified as turbid or transitional have experienced one strong regime shift over the past 150-200 yr and have since remained in a regime where turbid-water predominates, and (4) top-down impacts to the lake food-web from fish introductions appear to be the dominant driver of strong regime shifts and not increased nutrient availability. Based on our findings we demonstrate a method that could be used by lake managers to identify lakes that have an ecological history close to the clear-turbid regime threshold; such lakes might more easily be returned to a clear-water state through biomanipulation. The unfortunate reality is that many of these lakes are now part of a managed landscape and will likely require continued intervention. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  17. Early signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pal, Mainak; Pal, Amit Kumar; Ghosh, Sayantari; Bose, Indrani

    2013-06-01

    Recently, a large number of studies have been carried out on the early signatures of sudden regime shifts in systems as diverse as ecosystems, financial markets, population biology and complex diseases. The signatures of regime shifts in gene expression dynamics are less systematically investigated. In this paper, we consider sudden regime shifts in the gene expression dynamics described by a fold-bifurcation model involving bistability and hysteresis. We consider two alternative models, models 1 and 2, of competence development in the bacterial population B. subtilis and determine some early signatures of the regime shifts between competence and noncompetence. We use both deterministic and stochastic formalisms for the purpose of our study. The early signatures studied include the critical slowing down as a transition point is approached, rising variance and the lag-1 autocorrelation function, skewness and a ratio of two mean first passage times. Some of the signatures could provide the experimental basis for distinguishing between bistability and excitability as the correct mechanism for the development of competence.

  18. Early regimes of water capillary flow in slit silica nanochannels.

    PubMed

    Oyarzua, Elton; Walther, Jens H; Mejía, Andrés; Zambrano, Harvey A

    2015-06-14

    Molecular dynamics simulations are conducted to investigate the initial stages of spontaneous imbibition of water in slit silica nanochannels surrounded by air. An analysis is performed for the effects of nanoscopic confinement, initial conditions of liquid uptake and air pressurization on the dynamics of capillary filling. The results indicate that the nanoscale imbibition process is divided into three main flow regimes: an initial regime where the capillary force is balanced only by the inertial drag and characterized by a constant velocity and a plug flow profile. In this regime, the meniscus formation process plays a central role in the imbibition rate. Thereafter, a transitional regime takes place, in which, the force balance has significant contributions from both inertia and viscous friction. Subsequently, a regime wherein viscous forces dominate the capillary force balance is attained. Flow velocity profiles identify the passage from an inviscid flow to a developing Poiseuille flow. Gas density profiles ahead of the capillary front indicate a transient accumulation of air on the advancing meniscus. Furthermore, slower capillary filling rates computed for higher air pressures reveal a significant retarding effect of the gas displaced by the advancing meniscus.

  19. Control of Synchronization Regimes in Networks of Mobile Interacting Agents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Diaz, Fernando; Zillmer, Ruediger; Groß, Roderich

    2017-05-01

    We investigate synchronization in a population of mobile pulse-coupled agents with a view towards implementations in swarm-robotics systems and mobile sensor networks. Previous theoretical approaches dealt with range and nearest-neighbor interactions. In the latter case, a synchronization-hindering regime for intermediate agent mobility is found. We investigate the robustness of this intermediate regime under practical scenarios. We show that synchronization in the intermediate regime can be predicted by means of a suitable metric of the phase response curve. Furthermore, we study more-realistic K -nearest-neighbor and cone-of-vision interactions, showing that it is possible to control the extent of the synchronization-hindering region by appropriately tuning the size of the neighborhood. To assess the effect of noise, we analyze the propagation of perturbations over the network and draw an analogy between the response in the hindering regime and stable chaos. Our findings reveal the conditions for the control of clock or activity synchronization of agents with intermediate mobility. In addition, the emergence of the intermediate regime is validated experimentally using a swarm of physical robots interacting with cone-of-vision interactions.

  20. Ultimate evidence for the ultimate regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smits, Alexander J.

    2018-04-01

    The ultimate regime of turbulence has been observed, more than half a century after its first prediction. Inspiration for achieving this technical feat came from the imperfections of an everyday pipe.

  1. Linking sediment-charcoal records and ecological modeling to understand causes of fire-regime change in boreal forests.

    PubMed

    Brubaker, Linda B; Higuera, Philip E; Rupp, T Scott; Olson, Mark A; Anderson, Patricia M; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2009-07-01

    Interactions between vegetation and fire have the potential to overshadow direct effects of climate change on fire regimes in boreal forests of North America. We develop methods to compare sediment-charcoal records with fire regimes simulated by an ecologica model, ALFRESCO (Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code) and apply these methods to evaluate potential causes of a mid-Holocene fire-regime shift in boreal forests of the south-central Brooks Range, Alaska, U.S.A. Fire-return intervals (FRIs, number of years between fires) are estimated over the past 7000 calibrated 14C years (7-0 kyr BP [before present]) from short-term variations in charcoal accumulation rates (CHARs) at three lakes, and an index of area burned is inferred from long-term CHARs at these sites. ALFRESCO simulations of FRIs and annual area burned are based on prescribed vegetation and climate for 7-5 kyr BP and 5-0 kyr BP, inferred from pollen and stomata records and qualitative paleoclimate proxies. Two sets of experiments examine potential causes of increased burning between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP. (1) Static-vegetation scenarios: white spruce dominates with static mean temperature and total precipitation of the growing season for 7-0 kyr BP or with decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation for 5-0 kyr BP. (2) Changed-vegetation scenarios: black spruce dominates 5-0 kyr BP, with static temperature and precipitation or decreased temperature and/or increased precipitation. Median FRIs decreased between 7-5 and 5-0 kyr BP in empirical data and changed-vegetation scenarios but remained relatively constant in static-vegetation scenarios. Median empirical and simulated FRIs are not statistically different for 7-5 kyr BP and for two changed-vegetation scenarios (temperature decrease, precipitation increase) for 5-0 kyr BP. In these scenarios, cooler temperatures or increased precipitation dampened the effect of increased landscape flammability resulting from the increase in black spruce. CHAR

  2. Transport regimes spanning magnetization-coupling phase space

    DOE PAGES

    Baalrud, Scott D.; Daligault, Jérôme

    2017-10-06

    The manner in which transport properties vary over the entire parameter-space of coupling and magnetization strength is explored in this paper. Four regimes are identified based on the relative size of the gyroradius compared to other fundamental length scales: the collision mean free path, Debye length, distance of closest approach, and interparticle spacing. Molecular dynamics simulations of self-diffusion and temperature anisotropy relaxation spanning the parameter space are found to agree well with the predicted boundaries. Finally, comparison with existing theories reveals regimes where they succeed, where they fail, and where no theory has yet been developed.

  3. Transport regimes spanning magnetization-coupling phase space

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Baalrud, Scott D.; Daligault, Jérôme

    The manner in which transport properties vary over the entire parameter-space of coupling and magnetization strength is explored in this paper. Four regimes are identified based on the relative size of the gyroradius compared to other fundamental length scales: the collision mean free path, Debye length, distance of closest approach, and interparticle spacing. Molecular dynamics simulations of self-diffusion and temperature anisotropy relaxation spanning the parameter space are found to agree well with the predicted boundaries. Finally, comparison with existing theories reveals regimes where they succeed, where they fail, and where no theory has yet been developed.

  4. Crossing statistics of laser light scattered through a nanofluid.

    PubMed

    Arshadi Pirlar, M; Movahed, S M S; Razzaghi, D; Karimzadeh, R

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the crossing statistics of speckle patterns formed in the Fresnel diffraction region by a laser beam scattering through a nanofluid. We extend zero-crossing statistics to assess the dynamical properties of the nanofluid. According to the joint probability density function of laser beam fluctuation and its time derivative, the theoretical frameworks for Gaussian and non-Gaussian regimes are revisited. We count the number of crossings not only at zero level but also for all available thresholds to determine the average speed of moving particles. Using a probabilistic framework in determining crossing statistics, a priori Gaussianity is not essentially considered; therefore, even in the presence of deviation from Gaussian fluctuation, this modified approach is capable of computing relevant quantities, such as mean value of speed, more precisely. Generalized total crossing, which represents the weighted summation of crossings for all thresholds to quantify small deviation from Gaussian statistics, is introduced. This criterion can also manipulate the contribution of noises and trends to infer reliable physical quantities. The characteristic time scale for having successive crossings at a given threshold is defined. In our experimental setup, we find that increasing sample temperature leads to more consistency between Gaussian and perturbative non-Gaussian predictions. The maximum number of crossings does not necessarily occur at mean level, indicating that we should take into account other levels in addition to zero level to achieve more accurate assessments.

  5. Effect of different oral oxytetracycline treatment regimes on selection of antimicrobial resistant coliforms in nursery pigs.

    PubMed

    Herrero-Fresno, Ana; Zachariasen, Camilla; Nørholm, Nanna; Holm, Anders; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Olsen, John Elmerdahl

    2017-09-01

    A major concern derived from using antimicrobials in pig production is the development of resistance. This study aimed to assess the impact of selected combinations of oral dose and duration of treatment with oxytetracycline (OTC) on selection of tetracycline resistant (TET-R) coliforms recovered from swine feces. The work encompassed two studies: 1) OTC 5mg/kg and 20mg/kg were administered to nursery pigs for 3 and 10days, respectively, under controlled experimental conditions, and 2) 10mg/kg, 20mg/kg and 30mg/kg OTC were given to a higher number of pigs for 6, 3 and 2days, respectively, under field conditions. Statistical modeling was applied to analyze trends in the proportion of TET-R coliforms. In the experimental study, no statistical difference in proportion of TET-R coliforms was observed between treatments at the end of the trial (day 18) and compared to day 0. In the field study, treatment had a significant effect on the proportion of TET-R bacteria two days after the end of treatment (2dAT) with the regimes "low dose-six days" and "medium dose-three days" yielding the highest and lowest proportions of TET-R strains, respectively. No indication of co-selection for ampicillin- and sulphonamide -R bacteria was observed for any treatment at 2dAT. By the end of the nursery period, the proportion of TET-R bacteria was not significantly different between treatments and compared to day 0. Our results suggest that similar resistance levels might be obtained by using different treatment regimes regardless of the combinations of oral dose-duration of treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Fractional statistics and quantum scaling properties of the integrable Penson-Kolb-Hubbard chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vitoriano, Carlindo; Coutinho-Filho, M. D.

    2010-09-01

    We investigate the ground-state and low-temperature properties of the integrable version of the Penson-Kolb-Hubbard chain. The model obeys fractional statistical properties, which give rise to fractional elementary excitations and manifest differently in the four regions of the phase diagram U/t versus n , where U is the Coulomb coupling, t is the correlated hopping amplitude, and n is the particle density. In fact, we can find local pair formation, fractionalization of the average occupation number per orbital k , or U - and n -dependent average electric charge per orbital k . We also study the scaling behavior near the U -driven quantum phase transitions and characterize their universality classes. Finally, it is shown that in the regime of parameters where local pair formation is energetically more favorable, the ground state exhibits power-law superconductivity; we also stress that above half filling the pair-hopping term stabilizes local Cooper pairs in the repulsive- U regime for U

  7. Floquet prethermalization and regimes of heating in a periodically driven, interacting quantum system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weidinger, Simon A.; Knap, Michael

    2017-04-01

    We study the regimes of heating in the periodically driven O(N)-model, which is a well established model for interacting quantum many-body systems. By computing the absorbed energy with a non-equilibrium Keldysh Green’s function approach, we establish three dynamical regimes: at short times a single-particle dominated regime, at intermediate times a stable Floquet prethermal regime in which the system ceases to absorb, and at parametrically late times a thermalizing regime. Our simulations suggest that in the thermalizing regime the absorbed energy grows algebraically in time with an exponent that approaches the universal value of 1/2, and is thus significantly slower than linear Joule heating. Our results demonstrate the parametric stability of prethermal states in a many-body system driven at frequencies that are comparable to its microscopic scales. This paves the way for realizing exotic quantum phases, such as time crystals or interacting topological phases, in the prethermal regime of interacting Floquet systems.

  8. Predicting streamflow regime metrics for ungauged streamsin Colorado, Washington, and Oregon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanborn, Stephen C.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

    2006-06-01

    Streamflow prediction in ungauged basins provides essential information for water resources planning and management and ecohydrological studies yet remains a fundamental challenge to the hydrological sciences. A methodology is presented for stratifying streamflow regimes of gauged locations, classifying the regimes of ungauged streams, and developing models for predicting a suite of ecologically pertinent streamflow metrics for these streams. Eighty-four streamflow metrics characterizing various flow regime attributes were computed along with physical and climatic drainage basin characteristics for 150 streams with little or no streamflow modification in Colorado, Washington, and Oregon. The diverse hydroclimatology of the study area necessitates flow regime stratification and geographically independent clusters were identified and used to develop separate predictive models for each flow regime type. Multiple regression models for flow magnitude, timing, and rate of change metrics were quite accurate with many adjusted R2 values exceeding 0.80, while models describing streamflow variability did not perform as well. Separate stratification schemes for high, low, and average flows did not considerably improve models for metrics describing those particular aspects of the regime over a scheme based on the entire flow regime. Models for streams identified as 'snowmelt' type were improved if sites in Colorado and the Pacific Northwest were separated to better stratify the processes driving streamflow in these regions thus revealing limitations of geographically independent streamflow clusters. This study demonstrates that a broad suite of ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics can be accurately modeled across large heterogeneous regions using this framework. Applications of the resulting models include stratifying biomonitoring sites and quantifying linkages between specific aspects of flow regimes and aquatic community structure. In particular, the results

  9. Salix response to different flow regimes in controlled experiments: first results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorla, Lorenzo; Signarbieux, Constant; Buttler, Alexandre; Perona, Paolo

    2013-04-01

    Dams and water management for hydropower production, agriculture and other human activities alter the natural flow regime of rivers. The new river hydrograph components depend on the type of impoundment and the policy of regulation but such a different flow regime will likely affect the riparian environment. The main challenge in order to define sustainable flow releases is to quantify hydrological effects in terms of geomorphology and ecosystem response. A considerable lack of knowledge still affects the link hydrology-ecology and inadequate flow rules (e.g., minimal or residual flows) are consequently still widespread: further research in this direction is urgently required. We present an experiment, which aims to investigate the effects of different water stage regimes on riparian vegetation (salix Viminalis cuttings) development in a temperate region (Switzerland). This work describes the installation setup, together with the first results concerning the first of the two scheduled seasons of campaign. Sixty Salix cuttings were planted in non-cohesive sandy-gravel sediment within 1 meter tall plastic pots installed outside in the EPFL campus. After grouping them in three batteries, the water level within them has been varying following three river regimes simulated by adjusting the water level within the pots by means of an automatic hydraulic system. The three water level regimes reproduce a natural flow regime, a minimum residual flow policy, which only conserves peaks during flooding conditions, and an artificial regime conserving only low frequencies (e.g., seasonality) of the natural dynamic. The natural flow regime of the first battery has been applied for two months to the entire system; the three regimes above said started in June 2012. This triggered a plant response transitory regime, which we monitored by measuring plant growth, soil and atmospheric variables. Particularly, measures concern with branches development leaves photosynthesis and

  10. A statistical procedure for fire risk mapping in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2015-04-01

    The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. Given the availability of fire perimeters mapped over a period spanning from 5 to 10 years, depending by the region, a statistical procedure was defined in order to assess areas at risk based on objective criteria by observing past fire events. The availability of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allowed to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behavior. The seasonality of the fire regime was also considered, partitioning the analysis in two macro season (November-April and May- October). In addition, the total precipitation obtained from the interpolation of 30 years-long time series from 460 raingauges and the average air temperature obtained downscaling 30 years ERA-INTERIM data series were considered. The analysis consists on the subdivision of the territory in classes based on the named information layers

  11. Shifts in fisheries management: adapting to regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    King, Jacquelynne R.; McFarlane, Gordon A.; Punt, André E.

    2015-01-01

    For many years, fisheries management was based on optimizing yield and maintaining a target biomass, with little regard given to low-frequency environmental forcing. However, this policy was often unsuccessful. In the last two to three decades, fisheries science and management have undergone a shift towards balancing sustainable yield with conservation, with the goal of including ecosystem considerations in decision-making frameworks. Scientific understanding of low-frequency climate–ocean variability, which is manifested as ecosystem regime shifts and states, has led to attempts to incorporate these shifts and states into fisheries assessment and management. To date, operationalizing these attempts to provide tactical advice has met with limited success. We review efforts to incorporate regime shifts and states into the assessment and management of fisheries resources, propose directions for future investigation and outline a potential framework to include regime shifts and changes in ecosystem states into fisheries management.

  12. "International regime for advancing lunar development"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beldavs, VZ

    2017-09-01

    A specific concern regarding the Moon Treaty is the provision for sharing the wealth gained from space with developing countries that have not invested and taken risks in making possible space materials utilization. Article 11, par. 7 states "The main purposes of the international regime to be established shall include: (a) The orderly and safe development of the natural resources of the moon; (b) The rational management of those resources; (c) The expansion of opportunities in the use of those resources; (d) An equitable sharing by all States Parties in the benefits derived from those resources, whereby the interests and needs of the developing countries, as well as the efforts of those countries which have contributed either directly or indirectly to the exploration of the moon, shall be given special consideration." Whether the Moon Treaty in its present form or modified to be acceptable to more parties or the Moon Treaty is ignored, the language of Article 11, paragraph 7 can be used to construct an international regime for lunar development that can meet the requirements of commercial business as well as of states that provide support for lunar development as well as developing countries that may have played a modest role in making lunar development possible. This paper will consider options for constructing an international regime for lunar development.

  13. Numerically exact full counting statistics of the nonequilibrium Anderson impurity model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ridley, Michael; Singh, Viveka N.; Gull, Emanuel; Cohen, Guy

    2018-03-01

    The time-dependent full counting statistics of charge transport through an interacting quantum junction is evaluated from its generating function, controllably computed with the inchworm Monte Carlo method. Exact noninteracting results are reproduced; then, we continue to explore the effect of electron-electron interactions on the time-dependent charge cumulants, first-passage time distributions, and n -electron transfer distributions. We observe a crossover in the noise from Coulomb blockade to Kondo-dominated physics as the temperature is decreased. In addition, we uncover long-tailed spin distributions in the Kondo regime and analyze queuing behavior caused by correlations between single-electron transfer events.

  14. Numerically exact full counting statistics of the nonequilibrium Anderson impurity model

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ridley, Michael; Singh, Viveka N.; Gull, Emanuel

    The time-dependent full counting statistics of charge transport through an interacting quantum junction is evaluated from its generating function, controllably computed with the inchworm Monte Carlo method. Exact noninteracting results are reproduced; then, we continue to explore the effect of electron-electron interactions on the time-dependent charge cumulants, first-passage time distributions, and n-electron transfer distributions. We observe a crossover in the noise from Coulomb blockade to Kondo-dominated physics as the temperature is decreased. In addition, we uncover long-tailed spin distributions in the Kondo regime and analyze queuing behavior caused by correlations between single-electron transfer events

  15. Numerically exact full counting statistics of the nonequilibrium Anderson impurity model

    DOE PAGES

    Ridley, Michael; Singh, Viveka N.; Gull, Emanuel; ...

    2018-03-06

    The time-dependent full counting statistics of charge transport through an interacting quantum junction is evaluated from its generating function, controllably computed with the inchworm Monte Carlo method. Exact noninteracting results are reproduced; then, we continue to explore the effect of electron-electron interactions on the time-dependent charge cumulants, first-passage time distributions, and n-electron transfer distributions. We observe a crossover in the noise from Coulomb blockade to Kondo-dominated physics as the temperature is decreased. In addition, we uncover long-tailed spin distributions in the Kondo regime and analyze queuing behavior caused by correlations between single-electron transfer events

  16. Flow regimes during immiscible displacement

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Armstrong, Ryan T.; Mcclure, James; Berrill, Mark A.

    Fractional ow of immiscible phases occurs at the pore scale where grain surfaces and phases interfaces obstruct phase mobility. However, the larger scale behavior is described by a saturation-dependent phenomenological relationship called relative permeability. As a consequence, pore-scale parameters, such as phase topology and/ or geometry, and details of the flow regime cannot be directly related to Darcy-scale flow parameters. It is well understood that relative permeability is not a unique relationship of wetting-phase saturation and rather depends on the experimental conditions at which it is measured. Herein we use fast X-ray microcomputed tomography to image pore-scale phase arrangements duringmore » fractional flow and then forward simulate the flow regimes using the lattice-Boltzmann method to better understand the underlying pore-scale flow regimes and their influence on Darcy-scale parameters. We find that relative permeability is highly dependent on capillary number and that the Corey model fits the observed trends. At the pore scale, while phase topologies are continuously changing on the scale of individual pores, the Euler characteristic of the nonwetting phase (NWP) averaged over a sufficiently large field of view can describe the bulk topological characteristics; the Euler characteristic decreases with increasing capillary number resulting in an increase in relative permeability. Lastly, we quantify the fraction of NWP that flows through disconnected ganglion dynamics and demonstrate that this can be a significant fraction of the NWP flux for intermediate wetting-phase saturation. Furthermore, rate dependencies occur in our homogenous sample (without capillary end effect) and the underlying cause is attributed to ganglion flow that can significantly influence phase topology during the fractional flow of immiscible phases.« less

  17. Flow regimes during immiscible displacement

    DOE PAGES

    Armstrong, Ryan T.; Mcclure, James; Berrill, Mark A.; ...

    2017-02-01

    Fractional ow of immiscible phases occurs at the pore scale where grain surfaces and phases interfaces obstruct phase mobility. However, the larger scale behavior is described by a saturation-dependent phenomenological relationship called relative permeability. As a consequence, pore-scale parameters, such as phase topology and/ or geometry, and details of the flow regime cannot be directly related to Darcy-scale flow parameters. It is well understood that relative permeability is not a unique relationship of wetting-phase saturation and rather depends on the experimental conditions at which it is measured. Herein we use fast X-ray microcomputed tomography to image pore-scale phase arrangements duringmore » fractional flow and then forward simulate the flow regimes using the lattice-Boltzmann method to better understand the underlying pore-scale flow regimes and their influence on Darcy-scale parameters. We find that relative permeability is highly dependent on capillary number and that the Corey model fits the observed trends. At the pore scale, while phase topologies are continuously changing on the scale of individual pores, the Euler characteristic of the nonwetting phase (NWP) averaged over a sufficiently large field of view can describe the bulk topological characteristics; the Euler characteristic decreases with increasing capillary number resulting in an increase in relative permeability. Lastly, we quantify the fraction of NWP that flows through disconnected ganglion dynamics and demonstrate that this can be a significant fraction of the NWP flux for intermediate wetting-phase saturation. Furthermore, rate dependencies occur in our homogenous sample (without capillary end effect) and the underlying cause is attributed to ganglion flow that can significantly influence phase topology during the fractional flow of immiscible phases.« less

  18. Power-law statistics of neurophysiological processes analyzed using short signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlova, Olga N.; Runnova, Anastasiya E.; Pavlov, Alexey N.

    2018-04-01

    We discuss the problem of quantifying power-law statistics of complex processes from short signals. Based on the analysis of electroencephalograms (EEG) we compare three interrelated approaches which enable characterization of the power spectral density (PSD) and show that an application of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) or the wavelet-transform modulus maxima (WTMM) method represents a useful way of indirect characterization of the PSD features from short data sets. We conclude that despite DFA- and WTMM-based measures can be obtained from the estimated PSD, these tools outperform the standard spectral analysis when characterization of the analyzed regime should be provided based on a very limited amount of data.

  19. Detection and Assessment of Ecosystem Regime Shifts from Fisher Information

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecosystem regime shifts, which are long-term system reorganizations, have profound implications for sustainability. There is a great need for indicators of regime shifts, particularly methods that are applicable to data from real systems. We have developed a form of Fisher info...

  20. Minimum film thickness in elliptical contacts for different regimes of fluid-film lubrication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hamrock, B. J.; Dowson, D.

    1978-01-01

    The film-parameter equations are provided for four fluid-film lubrication regimes found in elliptical contacts. These regimes are isoviscous-rigid; viscous-rigid; elastohydrodynamic of low-elastic-modulus materials, or isoviscous-elastic; and elastohydrodynamic, or viscous-elastic. The influence or lack of influence of elastic and viscous effects is the factor that distinguishes these regimes. The film-parameter equations for the respective regimes come from earlier theoretical studies by the authors on elastohydrodynamic and hydrodynamic lubrication of elliptical conjunctions. These equations are restated and the results are presented as a map of the lubrication regimes, with film-thickness contours on a log-log grid of the viscosity and elasticity parameters for five values of the ellipticity parameter. The results present a complete theoretical film-parameter solution for elliptical contacts in the four lubrication regimes.

  1. Mixed-severity fire regimes: lessons and hypotheses from the Klamath-Siskiyou ecoregion

    Treesearch

    J.E. Halofsky; D.C. Donato; D.E. Hibbs; J.L. Campbell; M. Donaghy Cannon; J.B. Fontaine; J.R. Thompson; R.G. Anthony; B.T. Bormann; L.J. Kayes; B.E. Law; D.L. Peterson; T.A. Spies

    2011-01-01

    Although mixed-severity fires are among the most widespread disturbances influencing western North American forests, they remain the least understood. A major question is the degree to which mixed-severity fire regimes are simply an ecological intermediate between low- and high-severity fire regimes, versus a unique disturbance regime with distinct properties. The...

  2. Bringing fire back. The changing regimes of the Appalachian mixed-oak forest

    Treesearch

    Patrick Brose; Thomas Schuler; David Van Lear; John Berst

    2001-01-01

    Since vegetative associations stabilized about 4,000 years ago, the Appalachian mixed-oak forests have experienced three profoundly different fire regimes. Periodic, low-intensity surface fires lit by American Indians characterized the first regime, and this regime helped perpetuate oak as one of the dominant species groups. The Industrial Revolution led to high-...

  3. Earth Regime Network Evolution Study (ERNESt)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Menrad, Bob

    2016-01-01

    Speaker and Presenter at the Lincoln Laboratory Communications Workshop on April 5, 2016 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, MA. A visual presentation titled Earth Regimes Network Evolution Study (ERNESt).

  4. Land degradation and property regimes

    Treesearch

    Paul M. Beaumont; Robert T. Walker

    1996-01-01

    This paper addresses the relationship between property regimes and land degradation outcomes, in the context of peasant agriculture. We consider explicitly whether private property provides for superior soil resource conservation, as compared to common property and open access. To assess this we implement optimization algorithms on a supercomputer to address resource...

  5. Hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms in an inertial regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Gaojin; Ostace, Anca; Ardekani, Arezoo M.

    2016-11-01

    We numerically investigate the hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms at small to intermediate Reynolds number regimes, i.e., Re˜O (0.1 -100 ) , where inertial effects are important. The hydrodynamic interaction of swimming organisms in this regime is significantly different from the Stokes regime for microorganisms, as well as the high Reynolds number flows for fish and birds, which involves strong flow separation and detached vortex structures. Using an archetypal swimmer model, called a "squirmer," we find that the inertial effects change the contact time and dispersion dynamics of a pair of pusher swimmers, and trigger hydrodynamic attraction for two pullers. These results are potentially important in investigating predator-prey interactions, sexual reproduction, and the encounter rate of marine organisms such as copepods, ctenophora, and larvae.

  6. The kinetic regime of the Vicsek model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chepizhko, A. A.; Kulinskii, V. L.

    2009-12-01

    We consider the dynamics of the system of self-propelling particles modeled via the Vicsek algorithm in continuum time limit. It is shown that the alignment process for the velocities can be subdivided into two regimes: "fast" kinetic and "slow" hydrodynamic ones. In fast kinetic regime the alignment of the particle velocity to the local neighborhood takes place with characteristic relaxation time. So, that the bigger regions arise with the velocity alignment. These regions align their velocities thus giving rise to hydrodynamic regime of the dynamics. We propose the mean-field-like approach in which we take into account the correlations between density and velocity. The comparison of the theoretical predictions with the numerical simulations is given. The relation between Vicsek model in the zero velocity limit and the Kuramoto model is stated. The mean-field approach accounting for the dynamic change of the neighborhood is proposed. The nature of the discontinuity of the dependence of the order parameter in case of vectorial noise revealed in Gregorie and Chaite, Phys. Rev. Lett., 92, 025702 (2004) is discussed and the explanation of it is proposed.

  7. Comparative climatology of four marine stratocumulus regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hanson, Howard P.

    1990-01-01

    The climatology of marine stratocumulus (MSc) cloud regimes off the west coasts of California, Peru, Morocco, and Angola are examined. Long-term, annual averages are presented for several quantities of interest in the four MSc regimes. The climatologies were constructed using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS). A 40 year time series of observations was extracted for 32 x 32 deg analysis domains. The data were taken from the monthly-averaged, 2 deg product. The resolution of the analysis is therefore limited to scales of greater than 200 km with submonthly variability not resolved. The averages of total cloud cover, sea surface temperature, and surface pressure are presented.

  8. Oral health and welfare state regimes: a cross-national analysis of European countries

    PubMed Central

    Guarnizo-Herreño, Carol C; Tsakos, Georgios; Sheiham, Aubrey; Watt, Richard G

    2013-01-01

    Very little is known about the potential relationship between welfare state regimes and oral health. This study assessed the oral health of adults in a range of European countries clustered by welfare regimes according to Ferrera's typology and the complementary Eastern type. We analysed data from Eurobarometer wave 72.3, a cross-sectional survey of 31 European countries carried out in 2009. We evaluated three self-reported oral health outcomes: edentulousness, no functional dentition (<20 natural teeth), and oral impacts on daily living. Age-standardized prevalence rates were estimated for each country and for each welfare state regime. The Scandinavian regime showed lower prevalence rates for all outcomes. For edentulousness and no functional dentition, there were higher prevalence rates in the Eastern regime but no significant differences between Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian, and Southern regimes. The Southern regime presented a higher prevalence of oral impacts on daily living. Results by country indicated that Sweden had the lowest prevalences for edentulousness and no functional dentition, and Denmark had the lowest prevalence for oral impacts. The results suggest that Scandinavian welfare states, with more redistributive and universal welfare policies, had better population oral health. Future research should provide further insights about the potential mechanisms through which welfare-state regimes would influence oral health. PMID:23659239

  9. Quantifying and Generalizing Hydrologic Responses to Dam Regulation using a Statistical Modeling Approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    McManamay, Ryan A

    2014-01-01

    Despite the ubiquitous existence of dams within riverscapes, much of our knowledge about dams and their environmental effects remains context-specific. Hydrology, more than any other environmental variable, has been studied in great detail with regard to dam regulation. While much progress has been made in generalizing the hydrologic effects of regulation by large dams, many aspects of hydrology show site-specific fidelity to dam operations, small dams (including diversions), and regional hydrologic regimes. A statistical modeling framework is presented to quantify and generalize hydrologic responses to varying degrees of dam regulation. Specifically, the objectives were to 1) compare the effects ofmore » local versus cumulative dam regulation, 2) determine the importance of different regional hydrologic regimes in influencing hydrologic responses to dams, and 3) evaluate how different regulation contexts lead to error in predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Overall, model performance was poor in quantifying the magnitude of hydrologic responses, but performance was sufficient in classifying hydrologic responses as negative or positive. Responses of some hydrologic indices to dam regulation were highly dependent upon hydrologic class membership and the purpose of the dam. The opposing coefficients between local and cumulative-dam predictors suggested that hydrologic responses to cumulative dam regulation are complex, and predicting the hydrology downstream of individual dams, as opposed to multiple dams, may be more easy accomplished using statistical approaches. Results also suggested that particular contexts, including multipurpose dams, high cumulative regulation by multiple dams, diversions, close proximity to dams, and certain hydrologic classes are all sources of increased error when predicting hydrologic responses to dams. Statistical models, such as the ones presented herein, show promise in their ability to model the effects of dam regulation effects

  10. Inequalities in oral impacts and welfare regimes: analysis of 21 European countries.

    PubMed

    Guarnizo-Herreño, Carol C; Watt, Richard G; Pikhart, Hynek; Sheiham, Aubrey; Tsakos, Georgios

    2014-12-01

    Very few studies have analysed the relationship between political factors and oral health inequalities, and only one study has compared the magnitude of inequalities in oral health-related quality of life (OHRQoL) across welfare state regimes. This study aimed to compare socioeconomic inequalities in oral impacts on daily life among 21 European countries with different welfare state regimes (Scandinavian, Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian, Southern, and Eastern). We analysed data from the Eurobarometer 72.3, a survey carried out in 2009 among adults in European countries. Inequalities in oral impacts by education, occupational social class and subjective social status (SSS) were estimated by means of age-standardized prevalence rates, odds ratios (ORs), the relative index of inequality (RII) and the slope index of inequality (SII). Educational inequalities in the form of social gradients were observed in all welfare regimes. The Scandinavian and Southern welfare regimes also showed gradients for all SEP measures. There were not significant differences in the magnitude of relative inequalities (RII) across welfare state regimes. Absolute educational inequalities were largest in the Anglo-Saxon welfare regime (SII = 17.57; 95% CI: 7.80-27.33) and smallest in the Bismarckian (SII = 3.32; 95% CI: -2.18 to 8.83). A significant difference in the magnitude of inequalities across welfare regimes was found for absolute educational inequalities but not for relative inequalities. Welfare state regimes may influence the relationship between knowledge-related resources and oral impacts on daily life. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Development of an inflow controlled environmental flow regime for a Norwegian river

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfredsen, Knut; Harby, Atle; Linnansaari, Tommi; Ugedal, Ola

    2010-05-01

    For most regulated rivers in Norway the common environmental flow regime is static and shows very little variation over the year. Recent research indicate that flow regimes that follow the natural inflow variation can meet the ecological and social demands for water in a better way. The implementation of a variable environmental flow regime provides many challenges both related to defining flow for various species and user groups in the river, but also due to practical implementation, legislation and control. A inflow controlled flow regime is developed for a Norwegian river regulated for hydro power as a pilot study. The regime should meet ecological demands from Atlantic salmon and brown trout, recreational use of water and visual impression of the river. This should be achieved preferably without altering the energy production in the hydro power system. The flow regime is developed for wet, dry and normal discharge conditions based on unregulated inflow to the catchment. The development of the seasonal flow requirements for various targets identified is done using a modification of the Building Block Method. Several options are tested regarding the integration of the flow regime into the operational strategy of the hydropower plant, both using real time prognosis of inflow and combinations with historical data. An important topic in selecting the release strategy is how it meets current Norwegian legislation and how well future documentation and environmental control can be carried out. An evaluation protocol is also proposed for the flow regime to test if the ecological targets are met.

  12. Civic Capacity in Educational Reform Efforts: Emerging and Established Regimes in Rust Belt Cities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitra, Dana L.; Frick, William C.

    2011-01-01

    Using urban regime theory, the article examines two Rust Belt cities that tried to break the cycle of social reproduction in their communities by reforming their schools. The article contributes to the development of urban regime theory by comparing an "emerging" regime to an "established" regime. The comparison highlights the interdependent…

  13. Leverage effect, economic policy uncertainty and realized volatility with regime switching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Yinying; Chen, Wang; Zeng, Qing; Liu, Zhicao

    2018-03-01

    In this study, we first investigate the impacts of leverage effect and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on future volatility in the framework of regime switching. Out-of-sample results show that the HAR-RV including the leverage effect and economic policy uncertainty with regimes can achieve higher forecast accuracy than RV-type and GARCH-class models. Our robustness results further imply that these factors in the framework of regime switching can substantially improve the HAR-RV's forecast performance.

  14. Modified two-sources quantum statistical model and multiplicity fluctuation in the finite rapidity region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghosh, Dipak; Sarkar, Sharmila; Sen, Sanjib; Roy, Jaya

    1995-06-01

    In this paper the behavior of factorial moments with rapidity window size, which is usually explained in terms of ``intermittency,'' has been interpreted by simple quantum statistical properties of the emitting system using the concept of ``modified two-source model'' as recently proposed by Ghosh and Sarkar [Phys. Lett. B 278, 465 (1992)]. The analysis has been performed using our own data of 16Ag/Br and 24Ag/Br interactions at a few tens of GeV energy regime.

  15. Photon Statistics of Propagating Thermal Microwaves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deppe, F.; Goetz, J.; Eder, P.; Fischer, M.; Pogorzalek, S.; Xie, E.; Fedorov, K. G.; Marx, A.; Gross, R.

    In experiments with superconducting quantum circuits, characterizing the photon statistics of propagating microwave fields is a fundamental task. This task is in particular relevant for thermal fields, which are omnipresent noise sources in superconducting quantum circuits covering all relevant frequency regimes. We quantify the n2 + n photon number variance of thermal microwave photons emitted from a black-body radiator for mean photon numbers 0 . 05 <= n <= 1 . 5. In addition, we also use the fields as a sensitive probe for second-order decoherence effects of the qubit. Specifically, we investigate the influence of thermal fields on the low-frequency spectrum of the qubit parameter fluctuations. We find an enhacement of the white noise contribution of the noise power spectral density. Our data confirms a model of thermally activated two-level states interacting with the qubit. Supported by the German Research Foundation through FE 1564/1-1, the doctorate programs ExQM of the Elite Network of Bavaria, and the IMPRS Quantum Science and Technology.

  16. Adaptation in Collaborative Governance Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emerson, Kirk; Gerlak, Andrea K.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptation and the adaptive capacity of human and environmental systems have been of central concern to natural and social science scholars, many of whom characterize and promote the need for collaborative cross-boundary systems that are seen as flexible and adaptive by definition. Researchers who study collaborative governance systems in the public administration, planning and policy literature have paid less attention to adaptive capacity specifically and institutional adaptation in general. This paper bridges the two literatures and finds four common dimensions of capacity, including structural arrangements, leadership, knowledge and learning, and resources. In this paper, we focus on institutional adaptation in the context of collaborative governance regimes and try to clarify and distinguish collaborative capacity from adaptive capacity and their contributions to adaptive action. We posit further that collaborative capacities generate associated adaptive capacities thereby enabling institutional adaptation within collaborative governance regimes. We develop these distinctions and linkages between collaborative and adaptive capacities with the help of an illustrative case study in watershed management within the National Estuary Program.

  17. Mesoscale Dynamical Regimes in the Midlatitudes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Craig, G. C.; Selz, T.

    2018-01-01

    The atmospheric mesoscales are characterized by a complex variety of meteorological phenomena that defy simple classification. Here a full space-time spectral analysis is carried out, based on a 7 day convection-permitting simulation of springtime midlatitude weather on a large domain. The kinetic energy is largest at synoptic scales, and on the mesoscale it is largely confined to an "advective band" where space and time scales are related by a constant of proportionality which corresponds to a velocity scale of about 10 m s-1. Computing the relative magnitude of different terms in the governing equations allows the identification of five dynamical regimes. These are tentatively identified as quasi-geostrophic flow, propagating gravity waves, stationary gravity waves related to orography, acoustic modes, and a weak temperature gradient regime, where vertical motions are forced by diabatic heating.

  18. Bunch modulation in LWFA blowout regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyskočil, Jiří; Klimo, Ondřej; Vieira, Jorge; Korn, Georg

    2015-05-01

    Laser wakefield acceleration (LWFA) is able to produce high quality electron bunches interesting for many applications ranging from coherent light sources to high energy physics. The blow-out regime of LWFA provides excellent accelerating structure able to maintain small transverse emittance and energy spread of the accelerating electron beam if combined with localised injection. A modulation of the back of a self-injected electron bunch in the blowout regime of Laser Wakefield Acceleration appears 3D Particle-in-Cell simulations with the code OSIRIS. The shape of the modulation is connected to the polarization of the driving laser pulse, although the wavelength of the modulation is longer than that of the pulse. Nevertheless a circularly polarized laser pulse leads to a corkscrew-like modulation, while in the case of linear polarization, the modulation lies in the polarization plane.

  19. Defining pyromes and global syndromes of fire regimes

    PubMed Central

    Archibald, Sally; Lehmann, Caroline E. R.; Gómez-Dans, Jose L.; Bradstock, Ross A.

    2013-01-01

    Fire is a ubiquitous component of the Earth system that is poorly understood. To date, a global-scale understanding of fire is largely limited to the annual extent of burning as detected by satellites. This is problematic because fire is multidimensional, and focus on a single metric belies its complexity and importance within the Earth system. To address this, we identified five key characteristics of fire regimes—size, frequency, intensity, season, and extent—and combined new and existing global datasets to represent each. We assessed how these global fire regime characteristics are related to patterns of climate, vegetation (biomes), and human activity. Cross-correlations demonstrate that only certain combinations of fire characteristics are possible, reflecting fundamental constraints in the types of fire regimes that can exist. A Bayesian clustering algorithm identified five global syndromes of fire regimes, or pyromes. Four pyromes represent distinctions between crown, litter, and grass-fueled fires, and the relationship of these to biomes and climate are not deterministic. Pyromes were partially discriminated on the basis of available moisture and rainfall seasonality. Human impacts also affected pyromes and are globally apparent as the driver of a fifth and unique pyrome that represents human-engineered modifications to fire characteristics. Differing biomes and climates may be represented within the same pyrome, implying that pathways of change in future fire regimes in response to changes in climate and human activity may be difficult to predict. PMID:23559374

  20. Wake meandering of a model wind turbine operating in two different regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foti, Daniel; Yang, Xiaolei; Campagnolo, Filippo; Maniaci, David; Sotiropoulos, Fotis

    2018-05-01

    The flow behind a model wind turbine under two different turbine operating regimes (region 2 for turbine operating at optimal condition with the maximum power coefficient and 1.4-deg pitch angle and region 3 for turbine operating at suboptimal condition with a lower power coefficient and 7-deg pitch angle) is investigated using wind tunnel experiments and numerical experiments using large-eddy simulation (LES) with actuator surface models for turbine blades and nacelle. Measurements from the model wind turbine experiment reveal that the power coefficient and turbine wake are affected by the operating regime. Simulations with and without a nacelle model are carried out for each operating condition to study the influence of the operating regime and nacelle on the formation of the hub vortex and wake meandering. Statistics and energy spectra of the simulated wakes are in good agreement with the measurements. For simulations with a nacelle model, the mean flow field is composed of an outer wake, caused by energy extraction by turbine blades, and an inner wake directly behind the nacelle, while for the simulations without a nacelle model, the central region of the wake is occupied by a jet. The simulations with the nacelle model reveal an unstable helical hub vortex expanding outward toward the outer wake, while the simulations without a nacelle model show a stable and columnar hub vortex. Because of the different interactions of the inner region of the wake with the outer region of the wake, a region with higher turbulence intensity is observed in the tip shear layer for the simulation with a nacelle model. The hub vortex for the turbine operating in region 3 remains in a tight helical spiral and intercepts the outer wake a few diameters further downstream than for the turbine operating in region 2. Wake meandering, a low-frequency large-scale motion of the wake, commences in the region of high turbulence intensity for all simulations with and without a nacelle model

  1. Using experimental data to test an n -body dynamical model coupled with an energy-based clusterization algorithm at low incident energies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Rohit; Puri, Rajeev K.

    2018-03-01

    Employing the quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) approach for nucleus-nucleus collisions, we test the predictive power of the energy-based clusterization algorithm, i.e., the simulating annealing clusterization algorithm (SACA), to describe the experimental data of charge distribution and various event-by-event correlations among fragments. The calculations are constrained into the Fermi-energy domain and/or mildly excited nuclear matter. Our detailed study spans over different system masses, and system-mass asymmetries of colliding partners show the importance of the energy-based clusterization algorithm for understanding multifragmentation. The present calculations are also compared with the other available calculations, which use one-body models, statistical models, and/or hybrid models.

  2. Oral health and welfare state regimes: a cross-national analysis of European countries.

    PubMed

    Guarnizo-Herreño, Carol C; Tsakos, Georgios; Sheiham, Aubrey; Watt, Richard G

    2013-06-01

    Very little is known about the potential relationship between welfare state regimes and oral health. This study assessed the oral health of adults in a range of European countries clustered by welfare regimes according to Ferrera's typology and the complementary Eastern type. We analysed data from Eurobarometer wave 72.3, a cross-sectional survey of 31 European countries carried out in 2009. We evaluated three self-reported oral health outcomes: edentulousness, no functional dentition (<20 natural teeth), and oral impacts on daily living. Age-standardized prevalence rates were estimated for each country and for each welfare state regime. The Scandinavian regime showed lower prevalence rates for all outcomes. For edentulousness and no functional dentition, there were higher prevalence rates in the Eastern regime but no significant differences between Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian, and Southern regimes. The Southern regime presented a higher prevalence of oral impacts on daily living. Results by country indicated that Sweden had the lowest prevalences for edentulousness and no functional dentition, and Denmark had the lowest prevalence for oral impacts. The results suggest that Scandinavian welfare states, with more redistributive and universal welfare policies, had better population oral health. Future research should provide further insights about the potential mechanisms through which welfare-state regimes would influence oral health. © 2013 Eur J Oral Sci.

  3. The natural sediment regime in rivers: broadening the foundation for ecosystem management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wohl, Ellen E.; Bledsoe, Brian P.; Jacobson, Robert B.; Poff, N. LeRoy; Rathburn, Sara L.; Walters, David M.; Wilcox, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    Water and sediment inputs are fundamental drivers of river ecosystems, but river management tends to emphasize flow regime at the expense of sediment regime. In an effort to frame a more inclusive paradigm for river management, we discuss sediment inputs, transport, and storage within river systems; interactions among water, sediment, and valley context; and the need to broaden the natural flow regime concept. Explicitly incorporating sediment is challenging, because sediment is supplied, transported, and stored by nonlinear and episodic processes operating at different temporal and spatial scales than water and because sediment regimes have been highly altered by humans. Nevertheless, managing for a desired balance between sediment supply and transport capacity is not only tractable, given current geomorphic process knowledge, but also essential because of the importance of sediment regimes to aquatic and riparian ecosystems, the physical template of which depends on sediment-driven river structure and function.

  4. The political use of psychiatry: A comparison between totalitarian regimes.

    PubMed

    Buoli, Massimiliano; Giannuli, Aldo Sabino

    2017-03-01

    After the end of Second World War, the recent experience of the Nazi horrors stimulated a debate about the political use of psychiatry. Over the years, the focus shifted on major dictatorships of the time and especially on Soviet Union. This article aims to provide a critical review of the ways in which psychiatry was used by totalitarian regimes of the 20th century. We summarized relevant literature about political use of psychiatry in totalitarian regimes of the 20th century, with particular focus on Fascism, Nazism, Argentina dictatorship, Soviet Union and China. One of the features that are common to most of the dictatorships is that the use of psychiatry has become more prominent when the regimes have had the need to make more acceptable the imprisonment of enemies in the eyes of the world. This for example happened in the Nazi regime when sterilization and killing of psychiatric patients was explained as a kind of euthanasia, or in the Soviet Union after the formal closure of the corrective labor camps and the slow resumption of relations with the capitalistic world, or in China to justify persecution of religious minorities and preserve economic relations with Western countries. Psychiatry has been variously used by totalitarian regimes as a means of political persecution and especially when it was necessary to make acceptable to public opinion the imprisonment of political opponents.

  5. Oscillating Adriatic temperature and salinity regimes mapped using the Self-Organizing Maps method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matić, Frano; Kovač, Žarko; Vilibić, Ivica; Mihanović, Hrvoje; Morović, Mira; Grbec, Branka; Leder, Nenad; Džoić, Tomislav

    2017-01-01

    This paper aims to document salinity and temperature regimes in the middle and south Adriatic Sea by applying the Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) method to the available long-term temperature and salinity series. The data were collected on a seasonal basis between 1963 and 2011 in two dense water collecting depressions, Jabuka Pit and Southern Adriatic Pit, and over the Palagruža Sill. Seasonality was removed prior to the analyses. Salinity regimes have been found to oscillate rapidly between low-salinity and high-salinity SOM solutions, ascribed to the advection of Western and Eastern Mediterranean waters, respectively. Transient salinity regimes normally lasted less than a season, while temperature transient regimes lasted longer. Salinity regimes prolonged their duration after the major basin-wide event, the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, in the early 1990s. A qualitative relationship between high-salinity regimes and dense water formation and dynamics has been documented. The SOM-based analyses have a large capacity for classifying the oscillating ocean regimes in a basin, which, in the case of the Adriatic Sea, beside climate forcing, is an important driver of biogeochemical changes that impacts trophic relations, appearance and abundance of alien organisms, and fisheries, etc.

  6. Floquet prethermalization and regimes of heating in a periodically driven, interacting quantum system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weidinger, Simon; Knap, Michael

    We study the regimes of heating in the periodically driven O (N) -model, which represents a generic model for interacting quantum many-body systems. By computing the absorbed energy with a non-equilibrium Keldysh Green's function approach, we establish three dynamical regimes: at short times a single-particle dominated regime, at intermediate times a stable Floquet prethermal regime in which the system ceases to absorb, and at parametrically late times a thermalizing regime. Our simulations suggest that in the thermalizing regime the absorbed energy grows algebraically in time with an the exponent that approaches the universal value of 1 / 2 , and is thus significantly slower than linear Joule heating. Our results demonstrate the parametric stability of prethermal states in a generic many-body system driven at frequencies that are comparable to its microscopic scales. This paves the way for realizing exotic quantum phases, such as time crystals or interacting topological phases, in the prethermal regime of interacting Floquet systems. We acknowledge support from the Technical University of Munich - Institute for Advanced Study, funded by the German Excellence Initiative and the European Union FP7 under Grant agreement 291763, and from the DFG Grant No. KN 1254/1-1.

  7. Predicting transport regime and local electrostatic environment from Coulomb blockade diamond sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, Stine T.; Hansen, Thorsten; Mikkelsen, Kurt V.

    2017-03-01

    Electron transport through a molecule is often described in one of the two regimes: the coherent tunnelling regime or the Coulomb blockade regime. The twilight zone of the two regimes still possesses many unsolved questions. A theoretical analysis of the oligophenylenevinylene OPV3 experiments by Bjørnholm and co-workers is performed. The experiments showed how two OPV3 derivatives performed very differently despite the strong similarity of the molecular structure, hence the experimental data showed two different transport mechanisms. The different transport mechanisms of the two OPV3 derivatives are explained from quantum mechanical calculations of the molecular redox energies and from the experimentally accessible window size.

  8. Comparison of laser regimes for stamp cleaning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Radvan, Roxana N.; Dan, Suzana; Popovici, Nicoleta; Striber, J.; Savastru, Dan; Savastru, Roxana

    2001-10-01

    This paper presents a comparative study of the laser cleaning regimes applied to colored substrates with various chromatic characteristics, including colored paper and printed paper with different dpi (dots per inch) values. Tests are done under microscope with high precision techniques, using controlled Nd:YAG laser. The wavelength preponderantly used in the experiments is the Nd:YAG fundamental regime (1064 nm). Parallel experiments at 532 nm have been developed on difficult cases, or when the results were not satisfactory with 1064 nm. The main part of the work presents some results on stamp cleaning. Experimental results indicate that cleaning efficiency is correlated with the color of substrate, age of the ink on the stamp, color quality and paper quality.

  9. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth.

    PubMed

    Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; Defries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Mack, Michelle; Moritz, Max A; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Sodhi, Navjot S; Swetnam, Thomas W; Whittaker, Robert

    2011-12-01

    Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding

  10. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

    PubMed Central

    Bowman, David M J S; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J; Cochrane, Mark A; D'Antonio, Carla M; DeFries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H; Keeley, Jon E; Krawchuk, Meg A; Kull, Christian A; Mack, Michelle; Moritz, Max A; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I; Scott, Andrew C; Sodhi, Navjot S; Swetnam, Thomas W; Whittaker, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but ‘natural’ (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from ‘natural’ background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote

  11. The human dimension of fire regimes on Earth

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bowman, David M.J.S.; Balch, Jennifer; Artaxo, Paulo; Bond, William J.; Cochrane, Mark A.; D'Antonio, Carla M.; DeFries, Ruth; Johnston, Fay H.; Keeley, Jon E.; Krawchuk, Meg A.; Kull, Christian A.; Michelle, Mack; Moritz, Max A.; Pyne, Stephen; Roos, Christopher I.; Scott, Andrew C.; Sodhi, Navjot S.; Swetnam, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Humans and their ancestors are unique in being a fire-making species, but 'natural' (i.e. independent of humans) fires have an ancient, geological history on Earth. Natural fires have influenced biological evolution and global biogeochemical cycles, making fire integral to the functioning of some biomes. Globally, debate rages about the impact on ecosystems of prehistoric human-set fires, with views ranging from catastrophic to negligible. Understanding of the diversity of human fire regimes on Earth in the past, present and future remains rudimentary. It remains uncertain how humans have caused a departure from 'natural' background levels that vary with climate change. Available evidence shows that modern humans can increase or decrease background levels of natural fire activity by clearing forests, promoting grazing, dispersing plants, altering ignition patterns and actively suppressing fires, thereby causing substantial ecosystem changes and loss of biodiversity. Some of these contemporary fire regimes cause substantial economic disruptions owing to the destruction of infrastructure, degradation of ecosystem services, loss of life, and smoke-related health effects. These episodic disasters help frame negative public attitudes towards landscape fires, despite the need for burning to sustain some ecosystems. Greenhouse gas-induced warming and changes in the hydrological cycle may increase the occurrence of large, severe fires, with potentially significant feedbacks to the Earth system. Improved understanding of human fire regimes demands: (1) better data on past and current human influences on fire regimes to enable global comparative analyses, (2) a greater understanding of different cultural traditions of landscape burning and their positive and negative social, economic and ecological effects, and (3) more realistic representations of anthropogenic fire in global vegetation and climate change models. We provide an historical framework to promote understanding

  12. Maximizing vegetation response on management burns by identifying fire regimes

    Treesearch

    V. Thomas Parker

    1989-01-01

    Maintenance of vegetation is a central goal of watershed management. When prescribed burning of chaparral is included in management practice, then it is important for managers to understand and use the natural chaparral fire regime to maximize vegetation response. Variations from the natural fire regime in intensity, frequency, season, and environmental conditions at...

  13. Fire regime characterization in Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lanorte, A.; Lasaponara, R.

    2009-04-01

    This paper addresses the wildfire regime in Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy. Fire regimes refer to average fire conditions (including fire size, fire density, fire frequency, fire seasonality, fire intensity, fire severity, fire thresholds, etc.) occurring over a long period of time. Information on spatial pattern of forest fire locations is a key point in the study of the dynamics of fire disturbance, and allows us to improve the knowledge of past and current role of fire. Historical evidence clearly shows what did happen and this can fruitfully help to understand what is happening and what could happen in the next future. Mapping fire regimes is very challenging, because fire ocurrence features are the expression of the interactions between climate, fire, vegetation, topography, social factors. The main objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive characterization of the fire regime in Italy based on a recently updated national wildfire database. Fire data were obtained from the Italian National Forestry Service. This national database is comprised of information contained in individual fire reports completed for every fire that occurs on public lands in the Italian peninsula. Complete data were only available for 1996-2006 at the time we accessed the database, which determined the years we analysed. The primary fire history variables that we reported were number of fires, area burned, burning time and duration, and fire size (average size of individual fires) The wildfire records (wildfire area, location, time, vegetation) were analysed with other environmental (fuel availability and type), topographic features, and meteorological/climatological data. Results of our analysis could help better understand the different factors on the wildfire regime in Mediterranean ecosystems of Southern Italy.

  14. Detecting spatial regimes in ecosystems | Science Inventory ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Research on early warning indicators has generally focused on assessing temporal transitions with limited application of these methods to detecting spatial regimes. Traditional spatial boundary detection procedures that result in ecoregion maps are typically based on ecological potential (i.e. potential vegetation), and often fail to account for ongoing changes due to stressors such as land use change and climate change and their effects on plant and animal communities. We use Fisher information, an information theory based method, on both terrestrial and aquatic animal data (US Breeding Bird Survey and marine zooplankton) to identify ecological boundaries, and compare our results to traditional early warning indicators, conventional ecoregion maps, and multivariate analysis such as nMDS (non-metric Multidimensional Scaling) and cluster analysis. We successfully detect spatial regimes and transitions in both terrestrial and aquatic systems using Fisher information. Furthermore, Fisher information provided explicit spatial information about community change that is absent from other multivariate approaches. Our results suggest that defining spatial regimes based on animal communities may better reflect ecological reality than do traditional ecoregion maps, especially in our current era of rapid and unpredictable ecological change. Use an information theory based method to identify ecological boundaries and compare our results to traditional early warning

  15. SHEAR-DRIVEN DYNAMO WAVES IN THE FULLY NONLINEAR REGIME

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Pongkitiwanichakul, P.; Nigro, G.; Cattaneo, F.

    2016-07-01

    Large-scale dynamo action is well understood when the magnetic Reynolds number ( Rm ) is small, but becomes problematic in the astrophysically relevant large Rm limit since the fluctuations may control the operation of the dynamo, obscuring the large-scale behavior. Recent works by Tobias and Cattaneo demonstrated numerically the existence of large-scale dynamo action in the form of dynamo waves driven by strongly helical turbulence and shear. Their calculations were carried out in the kinematic regime in which the back-reaction of the Lorentz force on the flow is neglected. Here, we have undertaken a systematic extension of their work tomore » the fully nonlinear regime. Helical turbulence and large-scale shear are produced self-consistently by prescribing body forces that, in the kinematic regime, drive flows that resemble the original velocity used by Tobias and Cattaneo. We have found four different solution types in the nonlinear regime for various ratios of the fluctuating velocity to the shear and Reynolds numbers. Some of the solutions are in the form of propagating waves. Some solutions show large-scale helical magnetic structure. Both waves and structures are permanent only when the kinetic helicity is non-zero on average.« less

  16. Underwater Light Regimes in Rivers from Multiple Measurement Approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gardner, J.; Ensign, S.; Houser, J.; Doyle, M.

    2017-12-01

    Underwater light regimes are complex over space and time. Light in rivers is less understood compared to other aquatic systems, yet light is often the limiting resource and a fundamental control of many biological and physical processes in riverine systems. We combined multiple measurement approaches (fixed-site and flowpath) to understand underwater light regimes. We measured vertical light profiles over time (fixed-site) with stationary buoys and over space and time (flowpath) with Lagrangian neutrally buoyant sensors in two different large US rivers; the Upper Mississippi River in Wisconsin, USA and the Neuse River in North Carolina, USA. Fixed site data showed light extinction coefficients, and therefore the depth of the euphotic zone, varied up to three-fold within a day. Flowpath data revealed the stochastic nature of light regimes from the perspective of a neutrally buoyant particle as it moves throughout the water column. On average, particles were in the euphotic zone between 15-50% of the time. Combining flowpath and fixed-site data allowed spatial disaggregation of a river reach to determine if changes in the light regime were due to space or time as well as development of a conceptual model of the dynamic euphotic zone of rivers.

  17. Landscape-scale forest disturbance regimes in southern Peruvian Amazonia.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Doreen S; Hill, Ross A; Hopkinson, Chris; Baker, Timothy R

    2013-10-01

    Landscape-scale gap-size frequency distributions in tropical forests are a poorly studied but key ecological variable. Currently, a scale gap currently exists between local-scale field-based studies and those employing regional-scale medium-resolution satellite data. Data at landscape scales but of fine resolution would, however, facilitate investigation into a range of ecological questions relating to gap dynamics. These include whether canopy disturbances captured in permanent sample plots (PSPs) are representative of those in their surrounding landscape, and whether disturbance regimes vary with forest type. Here, therefore, we employ airborne LiDAR data captured over 142.5 km2 of mature, swamp, and regenerating forests in southeast Peru to assess the landscape-scale disturbance at a sampling resolution of up to 2 m. We find that this landscape is characterized by large numbers of small gaps; large disturbance events are insignificant and infrequent. Of the total number of gaps that are 2 m2 or larger in area, just 0.45% were larger than 100 m2, with a power-law exponent (alpha) value of the gap-size frequency distribution of 2.22. However, differences in disturbance regimes are seen among different forest types, with a significant difference in the alpha value of the gap-size frequency distribution observed for the swamp/regenerating forests compared with the mature forests at higher elevations. Although a relatively small area of the total forest of this region was investigated here, this study presents an unprecedented assessment of this landscape with respect to its gap dynamics. This is particularly pertinent given the range of forest types present in the landscape and the differences observed. The coupling of detailed insights into forest properties and growth provided by PSPs with the broader statistics of disturbance events using remote sensing is recommended as a strong basis for scaling-up estimates of landscape and regional-scale carbon balance.

  18. Regime-Dependent Differences in Surface Freshwater Exchange Estimates Over the Ocean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Sun; Behrangi, Ali

    2018-01-01

    Differences in gridded precipitation (P), surface evaporation (E), and the resultant surface freshwater exchange (P - E) among different products over the ocean are diagnosed as functions of moisture advection (Qadvt) and moisture tendency by dynamical convergence (Qcnvg). Compared to the GPCP product, the TRMM3B42 product captures higher frequency of precipitation with larger extreme precipitation rates in regimes of deep convection and more light rain detections in regimes of frequent occurrence of boundary layer clouds. Discrepancies in E depend on moisture flux divergence, with the OAFlux product having the largest E in regimes of divergence. Discrepancies in mean P - E in deep convective regimes are highly influenced by differences in precipitation, with the TRMM3B42 product yielding P - E histograms closer to those inferred from the reanalysis moisture flux convergence. In nonconvergent regimes, observation-based P - E histograms skew toward positive values while the inferred reanalysis histograms are symmetric about the means.

  19. Dynamic Modeling Strategy for Flow Regime Transition in Gas-Liquid Two-Phase Flows

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Xia Wang; Xiaodong Sun; Benjamin Doup

    In modeling gas-liquid two-phase flows, the concept of flow regimes has been widely used to characterize the global interfacial structure of the flows. Nearly all constitutive relations that provide closures to the interfacial transfers in two-phase flow models, such as the two-fluid model, are flow regime dependent. Current nuclear reactor safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5, classify flow regimes using flow regime maps or transition criteria that were developed for steady-state, fully-developed flows. As twophase flows are dynamic in nature, it is important to model the flow regime transitions dynamically to more accurately predict the two-phase flows. The present workmore » aims to develop a dynamic modeling strategy to determine flow regimes in gas-liquid two-phase flows through introduction of interfacial area transport equations (IATEs) within the framework of a two-fluid model. The IATE is a transport equation that models the interfacial area concentration by considering the creation of the interfacial area, fluid particle (bubble or liquid droplet) disintegration, boiling and evaporation, and the destruction of the interfacial area, fluid particle coalescence and condensation. For flow regimes beyond bubbly flows, a two-group IATE has been proposed, in which bubbles are divided into two groups based on their size and shapes, namely group-1 and group-2 bubbles. A preliminary approach to dynamically identify the flow regimes is discussed, in which discriminator s are based on the predicted information, such as the void fraction and interfacial area concentration. The flow regime predicted with this method shows good agreement with the experimental observations.« less

  20. The Harrison Diffusion Kinetics Regimes in Solute Grain Boundary Diffusion

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Belova, Irina; Fiedler, T; Kulkarni, Nagraj S

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of the limits of the principal Harrison kinetics regimes (Type-A, B and C) for grain boundary diffusion is very important for the correct analysis of the depth profiles in a tracer diffusion experiment. These regimes for self-diffusion have been extensively studied in the past by making use of the phenomenological Lattice Monte Carlo (LMC) method with the result that the limits are now well established. The relationship of those self-diffusion limits to the corresponding ones for solute diffusion in the presence of solute segregation to the grain boundaries remains unclear. In the present study, the influence of solute segregationmore » on the limits is investigated with the LMC method for the well-known parallel grain boundary slab model by showing the equivalence of two diffusion models. It is shown which diffusion parameters are useful for identifying the limits of the Harrison kinetics regimes for solute grain boundary diffusion. It is also shown how the measured segregation factor from the diffusion experiment in the Harrison Type-B kinetics regime may differ from the global segregation factor.« less

  1. Modified two-sources quantum statistical model and multiplicity fluctuation in the finite rapidity region

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ghosh, D.; Sarkar, S.; Sen, S.

    1995-06-01

    In this paper the behavior of factorial moments with rapidity window size, which is usually explained in terms of ``intermittency,`` has been interpreted by simple quantum statistical properties of the emitting system using the concept of ``modified two-source model`` as recently proposed by Ghosh and Sarkar [Phys. Lett. B 278, 465 (1992)]. The analysis has been performed using our own data of {sup 16}O-Ag/Br and {sup 24}Mg-Ag/Br interactions at a few tens of GeV energy regime.

  2. DNA surface hybridization regimes

    PubMed Central

    Gong, Ping; Levicky, Rastislav

    2008-01-01

    Surface hybridization reactions, in which sequence-specific recognition occurs between immobilized and solution nucleic acids, are routinely carried out to quantify and interpret genomic information. Although hybridization is fairly well understood in bulk solution, the greater complexity of an interfacial environment presents new challenges to a fundamental understanding, and hence application, of these assays. At a surface, molecular interactions are amplified by the two-dimensional nature of the immobilized layer, which focuses the nucleic acid charge and concentration to levels not encountered in solution, and which impacts the hybridization behavior in unique ways. This study finds that, at low ionic strengths, an electrostatic balance between the concentration of immobilized oligonucleotide charge and solution ionic strength governs the onset of hybridization. As ionic strength increases, the importance of electrostatics diminishes and the hybridization behavior becomes more complex. Suppression of hybridization affinity constants relative to solution values, and their weakened dependence on the concentration of DNA counterions, indicate that the immobilized strands form complexes that compete with hybridization to analyte strands. Moreover, an unusual regime is observed in which the surface coverage of immobilized oligonucleotides does not significantly influence the hybridization behavior, despite physical closeness and hence compulsory interactions between sites. These results are interpreted and summarized in a diagram of hybridization regimes that maps specific behaviors to experimental ranges of ionic strength and probe coverage. PMID:18381819

  3. Kolmogorov and scalar spectral regimes in numerical turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kerr, R. M.

    1985-01-01

    Velocity and passive-scalar spectra for turbulent fields generated by a forced three-dimensional simulation and Taylormicroscale Reynolds numbers up to 83 are shown to have distinct spectral regimes, including a Kolmogorov inertial subrange. Both one- and three-dimensional spectra are shown for comparison with experiment and theory, respectively. When normalized by the Kolmogorov dissipation scales velocity spectra collapse to a single curve and a high-wavenumber bulge is seen. The bulge leads to an artificially high Kolmogorov constant, but is consistent with recent measurements of the velocity spectrum in the dissipation regime and the velocity-derivative skewness. Scalar spectra, when normalized by the Oboukov-Corrsin scales, collapse to curves which depend only on Prandtl number and show a universal inertial-convective subrange, independent of Prandtl number. When normalized by the Batchelor scales, the scalar spectra show a universal dissipation regime which is independent of Prandtl numbers from 0.1 to 1.0. The time development of velocity spectra is illustrated by energy-transfer spectra in which distinct pulses propagate to high wavenumbers.

  4. Regular-to-Chaotic Tunneling Rates: From the Quantum to the Semiclassical Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Löck, Steffen; Bäcker, Arnd; Ketzmerick, Roland; Schlagheck, Peter

    2010-03-01

    We derive a prediction of dynamical tunneling rates from regular to chaotic phase-space regions combining the direct regular-to-chaotic tunneling mechanism in the quantum regime with an improved resonance-assisted tunneling theory in the semiclassical regime. We give a qualitative recipe for identifying the relevance of nonlinear resonances in a given ℏ regime. For systems with one or multiple dominant resonances we find excellent agreement to numerics.

  5. Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season and their Associated Large-Scale Circulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Z.

    2015-12-01

    In the cool season (November-March), extreme temperature events (ETEs) always hit the continental United States (US) and provide significant societal impacts. According to the anomalous amplitudes of the surface air temperature (SAT), there are two typical types of ETEs, e.g. cold waves (CWs) and warm waves (WWs). This study used cluster analysis to categorize both CWs and WWs into four distinct regimes respectively and investigated their associated large-scale circulations on intra-seasonal time scale. Most of the CW regimes have large areal impact over the continental US. However, the distribution of cold SAT anomalies varies apparently in four regimes. In the sea level, the four CW regimes are characterized by anomalous high pressure over North America (near and to west of cold anomaly) with different extension and orientation. As a result, anomalous northerlies along east flank of anomalous high pressure convey cold air into the continental US. To the middle troposphere, the leading two groups feature large-scale and zonally-elongated circulation anomaly pattern, while the other two regimes exhibit synoptic wavetrain pattern with meridionally elongated features. As for the WW regimes, there are some patterns symmetry and anti-symmetry with respect to CW regimes. The WW regimes are characterized by anomalous low pressure and southerlies wind over North America. The first and fourth groups are affected by remote forcing emanating from North Pacific, while the others appear mainly locally forced.

  6. Gas flow through rough microchannels in the transition flow regime.

    PubMed

    Deng, Zilong; Chen, Yongping; Shao, Chenxi

    2016-01-01

    A multiple-relaxation-time lattice Boltzmann model of Couette flow is developed to investigate the rarified gas flow through microchannels with roughness characterized by fractal geometry, especially to elucidate the coupled effects of roughness and rarefaction on microscale gas flow in the transition flow regime. The results indicate that the surface roughness effect on gas flow behavior becomes more significant in rarefied gas flow with the increase of Knudsen number. We find the gas flow behavior in the transition flow regime is more sensitive to roughness height than that in the slip flow regime. In particular, the influence of fractal dimension on rarefied gas flow behavior is less significant than roughness height.

  7. Exploring the WTI crude oil price bubble process using the Markov regime switching model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yue-Jun; Wang, Jing

    2015-03-01

    The sharp volatility of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price in the past decade triggers us to investigate the price bubbles and their evolving process. Empirical results indicate that the fundamental price of WTI crude oil appears relatively more stable than that of the market-trading price, which verifies the existence of oil price bubbles during the sample period. Besides, by allowing the WTI crude oil price bubble process to switch between two states (regimes) according to a first-order Markov chain, we are able to statistically discriminate upheaval from stable states in the crude oil price bubble process; and in most of time, the stable state dominates the WTI crude oil price bubbles while the upheaval state usually proves short-lived and accompanies unexpected market events.

  8. Managing for resilience: early detection of regime shifts in complex systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    The goal of sustainability is to maintain a condition or regime of the Earth, which supports human existence from generation to generation. Hence, the ability to detect, characterize, and manage regime shifts, particularly catastrophic ones, is critical to maintaining human sust...

  9. Tuning the Photon Statistics of a Strongly Coupled Nanophotonic System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dory, C.; Fischer, K. A.; Müller, K.; Lagoudakis, K. G.; Sarmiento, T.; Rundquist, A.; Zhang, J. L.; Kelaita, Y.; Sapra, N. V.; Vučković, J.

    Strongly coupled quantum-dot-photonic-crystal cavity systems provide a nonlinear ladder of hybridized light-matter states, which are a promising platform for non-classical light generation. The transmission of light through such systems enables light generation with tunable photon counting statistics. By detuning the frequencies of quantum emitter and cavity, we can tune the transmission of light to strongly enhance either single- or two-photon emission processes. However, these nanophotonic systems show a strongly dissipative nature and classical light obscures any quantum character of the emission. In this work, we utilize a self-homodyne interference technique combined with frequency-filtering to overcome this obstacle. This allows us to generate emission with a strong two-photon component in the multi-photon regime, where we measure a second-order coherence value of g (2) [ 0 ] = 1 . 490 +/- 0 . 034 . We propose rate equation models that capture the dominant processes of emission both in the single- and multi-photon regimes and support them by quantum-optical simulations that fully capture the frequency filtering of emission from our solid-state system. Finally, we simulate a third-order coherence value of g (3) [ 0 ] = 0 . 872 +/- 0 . 021 . Army Research Office (ARO) (W911NF1310309), National Science Foundation (1503759), Stanford Graduate Fellowship.

  10. Using Size-Frequency Distributions to Analyze Fire Regimes in Florida

    Treesearch

    Thomas P. Holmes; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John M. Pye; David T. Butry; D. Evan Mercer; Karen L. Abt

    2004-01-01

    Wildfire regimes in natural forest ecosystems have been characterized with power­law distributions. In this paper, we evaluated whether wildfire regimes in a human-dominated landscape were also consistent with power­law distributions. Our case study focused on wildfires in Florida, a state with rapid population growth and consequent rapid alteration of forest...

  11. Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think

    PubMed Central

    Westfall, Jacob; Yarkoni, Tal

    2016-01-01

    Social scientists often seek to demonstrate that a construct has incremental validity over and above other related constructs. However, these claims are typically supported by measurement-level models that fail to consider the effects of measurement (un)reliability. We use intuitive examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and a novel analytical framework to demonstrate that common strategies for establishing incremental construct validity using multiple regression analysis exhibit extremely high Type I error rates under parameter regimes common in many psychological domains. Counterintuitively, we find that error rates are highest—in some cases approaching 100%—when sample sizes are large and reliability is moderate. Our findings suggest that a potentially large proportion of incremental validity claims made in the literature are spurious. We present a web application (http://jakewestfall.org/ivy/) that readers can use to explore the statistical properties of these and other incremental validity arguments. We conclude by reviewing SEM-based statistical approaches that appropriately control the Type I error rate when attempting to establish incremental validity. PMID:27031707

  12. Optimization of multi-stage dynamic treatment regimes utilizing accumulated data.

    PubMed

    Huang, Xuelin; Choi, Sangbum; Wang, Lu; Thall, Peter F

    2015-11-20

    In medical therapies involving multiple stages, a physician's choice of a subject's treatment at each stage depends on the subject's history of previous treatments and outcomes. The sequence of decisions is known as a dynamic treatment regime or treatment policy. We consider dynamic treatment regimes in settings where each subject's final outcome can be defined as the sum of longitudinally observed values, each corresponding to a stage of the regime. Q-learning, which is a backward induction method, is used to first optimize the last stage treatment then sequentially optimize each previous stage treatment until the first stage treatment is optimized. During this process, model-based expectations of outcomes of late stages are used in the optimization of earlier stages. When the outcome models are misspecified, bias can accumulate from stage to stage and become severe, especially when the number of treatment stages is large. We demonstrate that a modification of standard Q-learning can help reduce the accumulated bias. We provide a computational algorithm, estimators, and closed-form variance formulas. Simulation studies show that the modified Q-learning method has a higher probability of identifying the optimal treatment regime even in settings with misspecified models for outcomes. It is applied to identify optimal treatment regimes in a study for advanced prostate cancer and to estimate and compare the final mean rewards of all the possible discrete two-stage treatment sequences. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Geo-Hydro Statistical Characterization of Preferential Flow and Transport Processes in Karst Groundwater Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anaya, A. A.; Padilla, I. Y.; Macchiavelli, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    Karst groundwater systems are highly productive and provide an important fresh water resource for human development and ecological integrity. Their high productivity is often associated with conduit flow and high matrix permeability. The same characteristics that make these aquifers productive also make them highly vulnerable to contamination and a likely for contaminant exposure. Of particular interest are chlorinated organic contaminants and phthalates derived from industrial solvents and plastic by-products. These chemicals have been identified as potential precursors of pre-term birth, a leading cause of neonatal complications with a significant health and societal cost. The general objectives of this work are to: (1) develop fundamental knowledge and determine the processes controlling the release, mobility, persistence, and possible pathways of contaminants in karst groundwater systems, and (2) characterize transport processes in conduit and diffusion-dominated flow under base flow and storm flow conditions. The work presented herein focuses on the development of geo-hydro statistical tools to characterize flow and transport processes under different flow regimes. Multidimensional, laboratory-scale Geo-Hydrobed models were developed and tested for this purpose. The models consist of stainless-steel tanks containing karstified limestone blocks collected from the karst aquifer formation of northern Puerto Rico. The models a network of sampling wells to monitor flow, pressure, and solute concentrations temporally and spatially. Experimental work entailed making a series of point injections in wells while monitoring the hydraulic response in other wells. Statistical mixed models were applied to spatial probabilities of hydraulic response and weighted injected volume data, and were used to determinate the best spatial correlation structure to represent paths of preferential flow in the limestone units under different groundwater flow regimes. Preliminary testing

  14. Challenges in Finding AGNs in the Low Luminosity Regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satyapal, Shobita; Abel, Nick; Secrest, Nathan; Singh, Amrit; Ellison, Sara

    2016-08-01

    Low luminosity AGNs are an important component of the AGN population. They are often found in the lowest mass galaxies or galaxies that lack classical bulges, a demographic that places important constraints to models of supermassive black hole seed formation and merger-free models of AGN fueling. The detection of AGNs in this low luminosity regime is challenging both because star formation in the host galaxy can dominate the optical spectrum and gas and dust can obscure the central engine at both optical and X-ray wavelengths. Thus while mid-infrared color selection and X-ray observations at energies <10 keV are often powerful tools in uncovering optically unidentified AGNs at higher luminosities, this is not the case in the low luminosity regime. In this talk, I will review the effectiveness of uncovering AGNs in the low luminosity regime using multiwavength investigations, with a focus on infrared spectroscopic signatures.

  15. Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as

  16. Quantifying the statistical complexity of low-frequency fluctuations in semiconductor lasers with optical feedback

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tiana-Alsina, J.; Torrent, M. C.; Masoller, C.

    Low-frequency fluctuations (LFFs) represent a dynamical instability that occurs in semiconductor lasers when they are operated near the lasing threshold and subject to moderate optical feedback. LFFs consist of sudden power dropouts followed by gradual, stepwise recoveries. We analyze experimental time series of intensity dropouts and quantify the complexity of the underlying dynamics employing two tools from information theory, namely, Shannon's entropy and the Martin, Plastino, and Rosso statistical complexity measure. These measures are computed using a method based on ordinal patterns, by which the relative length and ordering of consecutive interdropout intervals (i.e., the time intervals between consecutive intensitymore » dropouts) are analyzed, disregarding the precise timing of the dropouts and the absolute durations of the interdropout intervals. We show that this methodology is suitable for quantifying subtle characteristics of the LFFs, and in particular the transition to fully developed chaos that takes place when the laser's pump current is increased. Our method shows that the statistical complexity of the laser does not increase continuously with the pump current, but levels off before reaching the coherence collapse regime. This behavior coincides with that of the first- and second-order correlations of the interdropout intervals, suggesting that these correlations, and not the chaotic behavior, are what determine the level of complexity of the laser's dynamics. These results hold for two different dynamical regimes, namely, sustained LFFs and coexistence between LFFs and steady-state emission.« less

  17. Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it

    PubMed Central

    Biggs, Reinette; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Brock, William A.

    2009-01-01

    Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts. PMID:19124774

  18. Fire scars reveal variability and dynamics of eastern fire regimes

    Treesearch

    Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey; Michael C. Stambaugh; Rose-Marie Muzika

    2006-01-01

    Fire scar evidence in eastern North America is sparse and complex but shows promise in defining the dynamics of these fire regimes and their influence on ecosystems. We review fire scar data, methods, and limitations, and use this information to identify and examine the factors influencing fire regimes. Fire scar data from studies at more than 40 sites in Eastern North...

  19. Thermal Regime of the Downstream Shoulder of Rockfill Dams (Termicheskii Regim Nizovoy Prizm Kamennona’Rosnoy Plotin),

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-02-01

    conditi ons for machanical displacement . Hence a flow of air depending on the thermal regime of the dam itself is formed in the downstream should .w of a...The constant coefficients of basic finite—difference equations (33) , , — (34), (35), (38), and (40) were

  20. Conservation performance of different conservation governance regimes in the Peruvian Amazon.

    PubMed

    Schleicher, Judith; Peres, Carlos A; Amano, Tatsuya; Llactayo, William; Leader-Williams, Nigel

    2017-09-12

    State-controlled protected areas (PAs) have dominated conservation strategies globally, yet their performance relative to other governance regimes is rarely assessed comprehensively. Furthermore, performance indicators of forest PAs are typically restricted to deforestation, although the extent of forest degradation is greater. We address these shortfalls through an empirical impact evaluation of state PAs, Indigenous Territories (ITs), and civil society and private Conservation Concessions (CCs) on deforestation and degradation throughout the Peruvian Amazon. We integrated remote-sensing data with environmental and socio-economic datasets, and used propensity-score matching to assess: (i) how deforestation and degradation varied across governance regimes between 2006-2011; (ii) their proximate drivers; and (iii) whether state PAs, CCs and ITs avoided deforestation and degradation compared with logging and mining concessions, and the unprotected landscape. CCs, state PAs, and ITs all avoided deforestation and degradation compared to analogous areas in the unprotected landscape. CCs and ITs were on average more effective in this respect than state PAs, showing that local governance can be equally or more effective than centralized state regimes. However, there were no consistent differences between conservation governance regimes when matched to logging and mining concessions. Future impact assessments would therefore benefit from further disentangling governance regimes across unprotected land.

  1. Politics, welfare regimes, and population health: controversies and evidence.

    PubMed

    Muntaner, Carles; Borrell, Carme; Ng, Edwin; Chung, Haejoo; Espelt, Albert; Rodriguez-Sanz, Maica; Benach, Joan; O'Campo, Patricia

    2011-09-01

    In recent years, a research area has emerged within social determinants of health that examines the role of politics, expressed as political traditions/parties and welfare state characteristics, on population health. To better understand and synthesise this growing body of evidence, the present literature review, informed by a political economy of health and welfare regimes framework, located 73 empirical and comparative studies on politics and health, meeting our inclusion criteria in three databases: PubMed (1948-), Sociological Abstracts (1953-), and ISI Web of Science (1900-). We identified two major research programmes, welfare regimes and democracy, and two emerging programmes, political tradition and globalisation. Primary findings include: (1) left and egalitarian political traditions on population health are the most salutary, consistent, and substantial; (2) the health impacts of advanced and liberal democracies are also positive and large; (3) welfare regime studies, primarily conducted among wealthy countries, find that social democratic regimes tend to fare best with absolute health outcomes yet consistently in terms of relative health inequalities; and (4) globalisation defined as dependency indicators such as trade, foreign investment, and national debt is negatively associated with population health. We end by discussing epistemological, theoretical, and methodological issues for consideration for future research. © 2011 The Authors. Sociology of Health & Illness © 2011 Foundation for the Sociology of Health & Illness/Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Redefining the lower statistical limit in x-ray phase-contrast imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marschner, M.; Birnbacher, L.; Willner, M.; Chabior, M.; Fehringer, A.; Herzen, J.; Noël, P. B.; Pfeiffer, F.

    2015-03-01

    Phase-contrast x-ray computed tomography (PCCT) is currently investigated and developed as a potentially very interesting extension of conventional CT, because it promises to provide high soft-tissue contrast for weakly absorbing samples. For data acquisition several images at different grating positions are combined to obtain a phase-contrast projection. For short exposure times, which are necessary for lower radiation dose, the photon counts in a single stepping position are very low. In this case, the currently used phase-retrieval does not provide reliable results for some pixels. This uncertainty results in statistical phase wrapping, which leads to a higher standard deviation in the phase-contrast projections than theoretically expected. For even lower statistics, the phase retrieval breaks down completely and the phase information is lost. New measurement procedures rely on a linear approximation of the sinusoidal phase stepping curve around the zero crossings. In this case only two images are acquired to obtain the phase-contrast projection. The approximation is only valid for small phase values. However, typically nearly all pixels are within this regime due to the differential nature of the signal. We examine the statistical properties of a linear approximation method and illustrate by simulation and experiment that the lower statistical limit can be redefined using this method. That means that the phase signal can be retrieved even with very low photon counts and statistical phase wrapping can be avoided. This is an important step towards enhanced image quality in PCCT with very low photon counts.

  3. Evaluation of two minimal-preparation regimes for CT colonography: optimising image quality and patient acceptability

    PubMed Central

    Pollentine, A; Mortimer, A; Mccoubrie, P; Archer, L

    2012-01-01

    Objective To compare a 2 day bowel preparation regime of barium, iodine and a mild stimulant laxative with a 1 day iodine-only regime for CT colonography (CTC). Methods 100 consecutive patients underwent CTC. The first 50 patients (Regime 1) ingested 1 bisacodyl tablet twice a day 3 days before CTC and 1 dose each of 50 ml of barium and 20 ml of iodinated contrast per day starting 2 days before CTC. The second 50 patients (Regime 2) ingested 3 doses of iodinated contrast over 24 h prior to CTC. Volumes of residual stool and fluid, and the effectiveness of stool and fluid tagging, were graded according to methods established by Taylor et al (Taylor S, Slaker A, Burling D, Tam E, Greenhalgh R, Gartner L, et al. CT colonography: optimisation, diagnostic performance and patient acceptability of reduced-laxative regimens using barium-based faecal tagging. Eur Radiol 2008; 18: 32–42). A 3 day low-residue diet was taken by both cohorts. Questionnaires rating the side-effects and burden of the bowel preparation were compared to a control cohort of patients undergoing barium enema. Results The proportion of colons producing none/scattered stool (score 1) was 90.3% with Regime 1 and 65.0% with Regime 2 (p<0.005). Any residual stool was significantly better tagged with Regime 1 (score 5), with 91.7% of Regime 1 exhibiting optimum tagging vs 71.3% of Regime 2 (p<0.05). No significant differences in side-effects between the bowel preparation regimes for CTC were elicited. Bowel preparation for barium enema was tolerated significantly worse than both of the CTC bowel preparation regimes. Conclusion Regime 1, containing a 3 day preparation of a mild laxative, barium and iodine, produced a significantly better prepared colon, with no difference in patient acceptability. PMID:22422379

  4. Evaluation of two minimal-preparation regimes for CT colonography: optimising image quality and patient acceptability.

    PubMed

    Pollentine, A; Mortimer, A; McCoubrie, P; Archer, L

    2012-08-01

    To compare a 2 day bowel preparation regime of barium, iodine and a mild stimulant laxative with a 1 day iodine-only regime for CT colonography (CTC). 100 consecutive patients underwent CTC. The first 50 patients (Regime 1) ingested 1 bisacodyl tablet twice a day 3 days before CTC and 1 dose each of 50 ml of barium and 20 ml of iodinated contrast per day starting 2 days before CTC. The second 50 patients (Regime 2) ingested 3 doses of iodinated contrast over 24 h prior to CTC. Volumes of residual stool and fluid, and the effectiveness of stool and fluid tagging, were graded according to methods established by Taylor et al (Taylor S, Slaker A, Burling D, Tam E, Greenhalgh R, Gartner L, et al. CT colonography: optimisation, diagnostic performance and patient acceptability of reduced-laxative regimens using barium-based faecal tagging. Eur Radiol 2008; 18: 32-42). A 3 day low-residue diet was taken by both cohorts. Questionnaires rating the side-effects and burden of the bowel preparation were compared to a control cohort of patients undergoing barium enema. The proportion of colons producing none/scattered stool (score 1) was 90.3% with Regime 1 and 65.0% with Regime 2 (p<0.005). Any residual stool was significantly better tagged with Regime 1 (score 5), with 91.7% of Regime 1 exhibiting optimum tagging vs 71.3% of Regime 2 (p<0.05). No significant differences in side-effects between the bowel preparation regimes for CTC were elicited. Bowel preparation for barium enema was tolerated significantly worse than both of the CTC bowel preparation regimes. Regime 1, containing a 3 day preparation of a mild laxative, barium and iodine, produced a significantly better prepared colon, with no difference in patient acceptability.

  5. Turbulent transport regimes and the scrape-off layer heat flux width

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myra, J. R.; D'Ippolito, D. A.; Russell, D. A.

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the responsible mechanisms and resulting scaling of the scrape-off layer (SOL) heat flux width is important for predicting viable operating regimes in future tokamaks and for seeking possible mitigation schemes. In this paper, we present a qualitative and conceptual framework for understanding various regimes of edge/SOL turbulence and the role of turbulent transport as the mechanism for establishing the SOL heat flux width. Relevant considerations include the type and spectral characteristics of underlying instabilities, the location of the gradient drive relative to the SOL, the nonlinear saturation mechanism, and the parallel heat transport regime. We find a heat flux width scaling with major radius R that is generally positive, consistent with the previous findings [Connor et al., Nucl. Fusion 39, 169 (1999)]. The possible relationship of turbulence mechanisms to the neoclassical orbit width or heuristic drift mechanism in core energy confinement regimes known as low (L) mode and high (H) mode is considered, together with implications for the future experiments.

  6. Statistical analysis of vibration in tyres

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le Bot, Alain; Bazari, Zakia; Klein, Philippe; Lelong, Joël

    2017-03-01

    The vibration in tyres submitted to random forces in the contact zone is investigated with the model of prestressed orthotropic plate on visco-elastic foundation. It is shown that beyond a cut-on frequency a single wave propagates whose speed is directional-dependent. A systematic numerical exploration of the governing equation solutions shows that three regimes may exist in such plates. These are modal field, diffuse field and free field. For actual tyres which present a high level of damping, the passage from low to high frequencies generally explores the modal and free field regimes but not the diffuse field regime.

  7. Welfare state regimes and population health: integrating the East Asian welfare states.

    PubMed

    Abdul Karim, Syahirah; Eikemo, Terje A; Bambra, Clare

    2010-01-01

    Epidemiological studies have consistently shown that population health varies significantly by welfare state regime. However, these studies have focused exclusively on the welfare states of Europe, North America and Australasia. This focus ignores the existence of welfare states in other parts of the world, specifically in East Asia. This study therefore investigates whether the association between population health (Infant Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at birth) and welfare state regimes is still valid when the welfare states of East Asia are added into the analysis. It also examines whether population health is worse in the East Asian welfare states. Infant Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy at birth as well as GDP per capita and social and health expenditures as a percentage of GDP were examined in 30 welfare states, categorised into six different regimes (Scandinavian, Anglo-Saxon, Bismarckian, Southern, Eastern European and East Asian). ANOVA analysis showed significant differences by welfare state regime in the magnitude of IMR, LE, SE, HE and GDP per capita. However, when controlling for GDP per capita in the ANCOVA analyses, only Life Expectancy (R(2)=0.58, adjusted R(2)=0.47, p<0.05) and Social Expenditure (R(2)=0.70, adjusted R(2)=0.61, p<0.05) differed significantly by welfare state regime. 47% of the variation in Life Expectancy was explained by welfare state regime type. Further, the East Asian welfare states did not have the worst health outcomes. The study concludes by highlighting the need to expand comparative health analysis both in terms of the range of countries examined and also in terms of incorporating other societal and public health factors-towards a 'public health regime' analysis.

  8. Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

    2005-01-01

    We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability

  9. Electron beam induced current in the high injection regime.

    PubMed

    Haney, Paul M; Yoon, Heayoung P; Koirala, Prakash; Collins, Robert W; Zhitenev, Nikolai B

    2015-07-24

    Electron beam induced current (EBIC) is a powerful technique which measures the charge collection efficiency of photovoltaics with sub-micron spatial resolution. The exciting electron beam results in a high generation rate density of electron-hole pairs, which may drive the system into nonlinear regimes. An analytic model is presented which describes the EBIC response when the total electron-hole pair generation rate exceeds the rate at which carriers are extracted by the photovoltaic cell, and charge accumulation and screening occur. The model provides a simple estimate of the onset of the high injection regime in terms of the material resistivity and thickness, and provides a straightforward way to predict the EBIC lineshape in the high injection regime. The model is verified by comparing its predictions to numerical simulations in one- and two-dimensions. Features of the experimental data, such as the magnitude and position of maximum collection efficiency versus electron beam current, are consistent with the three-dimensional model.

  10. Finite Volume Method for Pricing European Call Option with Regime-switching Volatility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lista Tauryawati, Mey; Imron, Chairul; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, we present a finite volume method for pricing European call option using Black-Scholes equation with regime-switching volatility. In the first step, we formulate the Black-Scholes equations with regime-switching volatility. we use a finite volume method based on fitted finite volume with spatial discretization and an implicit time stepping technique for the case. We show that the regime-switching scheme can revert to the non-switching Black Scholes equation, both in theoretical evidence and numerical simulations.

  11. The Ranking Regime and the Production of Knowledge: Implications for Academia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzales, Leslie D.; Nunez, Anne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    In this integrated review of literature, we address a powerful movement among interrelated organizations that we call the "ranking regime." We argue that the ostensive purpose of this regime is to identify "world class" universities, and thus to organize post-secondary education into a competitive transnational market. Although…

  12. Critical behavior of two-dimensional vesicles in the deflated regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Banavar, Jayanth R.; Maritan, Amos; Stella, Attilio

    1991-01-01

    The critical behavior of two-dimensional vesicles in the deflated regime is studied analytically using a mapping onto a gauge model, scaling arguments, and exact inequalities. In agreement with the results of earlier studies the critical behavior is governed by a branched-polymer fixed point. The shape of the critical line in the gauge model is deduced in the weak and in the infinitely deflated regime.

  13. Analysis of weather condition influencing fire regime in Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciu, Valentina; Masala, Francesco; Salis, Michele; Sirca, Costantino; Spano, Donatella

    2014-05-01

    Fires have a crucial role within Mediterranean ecosystems, with both negative and positive impacts on all biosphere components and with reverberations on different scales. Fire determines the landscape structure and plant composition, but it is also the cause of enormous economic and ecological damages, beside the loss of human life. In addition, several authors are in agreement suggesting that, during the past decades, changes on fire patterns have occurred, especially in terms of fire-prone areas expansion and fire season lengthening. Climate and weather are two of the main controlling agents, directly and indirectly, of fire regime influencing vegetation productivity, causing water stress, igniting fires through lightning, or modulating fire behavior through wind. On the other hand, these relationships could be not warranted in areas where most ignitions are caused by people (Moreno et al. 2009). Specific analyses of the driving forces of fire regime across countries and scales are thus still required in order to better anticipate fire seasons and also to advance our knowledge of future fire regimes. The objective of this work was to improve our knowledge of the relative effects of several weather variables on forest fires in Italy for the period 1985-2008. Meteorological data were obtained through the MARS (Monitoring Agricultural Resources) database, interpolated at 25x25 km scale. Fire data were provided by the JRC (Join Research Center) and the CFVA (Corpo Forestale e di Vigilanza Ambientale, Sardinia). A hierarchical cluster analysis, based on fire and weather data, allowed the identification of six homogeneous areas in terms of fire occurrence and climate (pyro-climatic areas). Two statistical techniques (linear and non-parametric models) were applied in order to assess if inter-annual variability in weather pattern and fire events had a significant trend. Then, through correlation analysis and multi-linear regression modeling, we investigated the

  14. Method to characterize directional changes in Arctic sea ice drift and associated deformation due to synoptic atmospheric variations using Lagrangian dispersion statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lukovich, Jennifer V.; Geiger, Cathleen A.; Barber, David G.

    2017-07-01

    A framework is developed to assess the directional changes in sea ice drift paths and associated deformation processes in response to atmospheric forcing. The framework is based on Lagrangian statistical analyses leveraging particle dispersion theory which tells us whether ice drift is in a subdiffusive, diffusive, ballistic, or superdiffusive dynamical regime using single-particle (absolute) dispersion statistics. In terms of sea ice deformation, the framework uses two- and three-particle dispersion to characterize along- and across-shear transport as well as differential kinematic parameters. The approach is tested with GPS beacons deployed in triplets on sea ice in the southern Beaufort Sea at varying distances from the coastline in fall of 2009 with eight individual events characterized. One transition in particular follows the sea level pressure (SLP) high on 8 October in 2009 while the sea ice drift was in a superdiffusive dynamic regime. In this case, the dispersion scaling exponent (which is a slope between single-particle absolute dispersion of sea ice drift and elapsed time) changed from superdiffusive (α ˜ 3) to ballistic (α ˜ 2) as the SLP was rounding its maximum pressure value. Following this shift between regimes, there was a loss in synchronicity between sea ice drift and atmospheric motion patterns. While this is only one case study, the outcomes suggest similar studies be conducted on more buoy arrays to test momentum transfer linkages between storms and sea ice responses as a function of dispersion regime states using scaling exponents. The tools and framework developed in this study provide a unique characterization technique to evaluate these states with respect to sea ice processes in general. Application of these techniques can aid ice hazard assessments and weather forecasting in support of marine transportation and indigenous use of near-shore Arctic areas.

  15. Characterizing differences in precipitation regimes of extreme wet and dry years: implications for climate change experiments.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Alan K; Hoover, David L; Wilcox, Kevin R; Avolio, Meghan L; Koerner, Sally E; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Loik, Michael E; Luo, Yiqi; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D

    2015-02-03

    Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle and is expected to increase the frequency of extreme wet and dry years. Beyond precipitation amount, extreme wet and dry years may differ in other ways, such as the number of precipitation events, event size, and the time between events. We assessed 1614 long-term (100 year) precipitation records from around the world to identify key attributes of precipitation regimes, besides amount, that distinguish statistically extreme wet from extreme dry years. In general, in regions where mean annual precipitation (MAP) exceeded 1000 mm, precipitation amounts in extreme wet and dry years differed from average years by ~40% and 30%, respectively. The magnitude of these deviations increased to >60% for dry years and to >150% for wet years in arid regions (MAP<500 mm). Extreme wet years were primarily distinguished from average and extreme dry years by the presence of multiple extreme (large) daily precipitation events (events >99th percentile of all events); these occurred twice as often in extreme wet years compared to average years. In contrast, these large precipitation events were rare in extreme dry years. Less important for distinguishing extreme wet from dry years were mean event size and frequency, or the number of dry days between events. However, extreme dry years were distinguished from average years by an increase in the number of dry days between events. These precipitation regime attributes consistently differed between extreme wet and dry years across 12 major terrestrial ecoregions from around the world, from deserts to the tropics. Thus, we recommend that climate change experiments and model simulations incorporate these differences in key precipitation regime attributes, as well as amount into treatments. This will allow experiments to more realistically simulate extreme precipitation years and more accurately assess the ecological consequences. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The case for regime-based water quality standards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poole, Geoffrey C.; Dunham, J.B.; Keenan, D.M.; Sauter, S.T.; McCullough, D.A.; Mebane, Christopher; Lockwood, Jeffrey C.; Essig, Don A.; Hicks, Mark P.; Sturdevant, Debra J.; Materna, E.J.; Spalding, M.; Risley, John; Deppman, Marianne

    2004-01-01

    Conventional water quality standards have been successful in reducing the concentration of toxic substances in US waters. However, conventional standards are based on simple thresholds and are therefore poorly structured to address human-caused imbalances in dynamic, natural water quality parameters, such as nutrients, sediment, and temperature. A more applicable type of water quality standarda??a a??regime standarda??a??would describe desirable distributions of conditions over space and time within a stream network. By mandating the protection and restoration of the aquatic ecosystem dynamics that are required to support beneficial uses in streams, well-designed regime standards would facilitate more effective strategies for management of natural water quality parameters.

  17. Hydrological Responses to Changes in the Rainfall Regime are Less Pronounced in Forested Basins: an Analysis of Southern Brazil, 1975-2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chagas, V. B. P.; Chaffe, P. L. B.

    2017-12-01

    It is unknown to what extent the hydrological responses to changes in the rainfall regime vary across forested and non-forested landscapes. Southern Brazil is approximately 570000 km² and was naturally covered mostly by tropical and subtropical forests. In the last century, a large proportion of forests were replaced by agricultural activities. The rainfall regime has also changed substantially in the last decades. The annual rainfall, number and magnitude of extreme events, and number of non-rainy days have increased in most of the area. In this study, we investigated the changes in the regime of 142 streamflow gauges and 674 rainfall gauges in Southern Brazil, from 1975 to 2010. The changes in the regime were analyzed for forested basins (i.e., with more than 50% forest coverage) and non-forested basins (i.e., with less than 20% forest coverage). The area of the river basins ranged from 100 to 60000 km². We analyzed a total of six signatures that represent the regime, including annual averages, seasonality, floods, and droughts. The statistical trends of the signatures were calculated using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen's slope. The results showed that the majority of basins with opposing signal trends for mean annual streamflow and rainfall are non-forested basins (i.e., basins with higher anthropogenic impacts). Forested basins had a lower correlation between trends in the streamflow and rainfall trends for the seasonality and the average duration of drought events. There was a lower variability in the annual maximum 1-day streamflow trends in the forested basins. Additionally, despite a decrease in the 31-day rainfall minima and an increase in the seasonality, in forested basins the 7-day streamflow minima increases were substantially larger than in non-forested basins. In summary, the forested basins were less responsive to the changes in the precipitation 1-day maxima, seasonality, number of dry days, and 31-day minima.

  18. Regional Variation in Gravel Riverbed Mobility, Controlled by Hydrologic Regime and Sediment Supply

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pfeiffer, Allison M.; Finnegan, Noah J.

    2018-04-01

    The frequency and intensity of riverbed mobility are of paramount importance to the inhabitants of river ecosystems as well as to the evolution of bed surface structure. Because sediment supply varies by orders of magnitude across North America, the intensity of bedload transport varies by over an order of magnitude. Climate also varies widely across the continent, yielding a range of flood timing, duration, and intermittency. Together, the differences in sediment supply and hydroclimate result in diverse regimes of bed surface stability. To quantitatively characterize this regional variation, we calculate multidecadal time series of estimated bed surface mobility for 29 rivers using sediment transport equations. We use these data to compare predicted bed mobility between rivers and regions. There are statistically significant regional differences in the (a) exceedance probability of bed-mobilizing flows (W* > 0.002), (b) maximum bed mobility, and (c) number of discrete bed-mobilizing events in a year.

  19. Exploring the String Landscape: The Dynamics, Statistics, and Cosmology of Parallel Worlds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlqvist, Stein Pontus

    This dissertation explores various facets of the low-energy solutions in string theory known as the string landscape. Three separate questions are addressed - the tunneling dynamics between these vacua, the statistics of their location in moduli space, and the potential realization of slow-roll inflation in the flux potentials generated in string theory. We find that the tunneling transitions that occur between a certain class of supersymmetric vacua related to each other via monodromies around the conifold point are sensitive to the details of warping in the near-conifold regime. We also study the impact of warping on the distribution of vacua near the conifold and determine that while previous work has concluded that the conifold point acts as an accumulation point for vacua, warping highly dilutes the distribution in precisely this regime. Finally we investigate a novel form of inflation dubbed spiral inflation to see if it can be realized near the conifold point. We conclude that for our particular models, spiral inflation seems to rely on a de Sitter-like vacuum energy. As a result, whenever spiral inflation is realized, the inflation is actually driven by a vacuum energy.

  20. Understanding Statistics - Cancer Statistics

    Cancer.gov

    Annual reports of U.S. cancer statistics including new cases, deaths, trends, survival, prevalence, lifetime risk, and progress toward Healthy People targets, plus statistical summaries for a number of common cancer types.

  1. Artificial light alters natural regimes of night-time sky brightness

    PubMed Central

    Davies, Thomas W.; Bennie, Jonathan; Inger, Richard; Gaston, Kevin J.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial light is globally one of the most widely distributed forms of anthropogenic pollution. However, while both the nature and ecological effects of direct artificial lighting are increasingly well documented, those of artificial sky glow have received little attention. We investigated how city lights alter natural regimes of lunar sky brightness using a novel ten month time series of measurements recorded across a gradient of increasing light pollution. In the city, artificial lights increased sky brightness to levels six times above those recorded in rural locations, nine and twenty kilometers away. Artificial lighting masked natural monthly and seasonal regimes of lunar sky brightness in the city, and increased the number and annual regime of full moon equivalent hours available to organisms during the night. The changes have potentially profound ecological consequences.

  2. Cooling metals to the microkelvin regime, then and now

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pickett, G. R.

    2000-05-01

    Better understanding of the behaviour of materials and the techniques of nuclear cooling, gained in recent years, now allows us to cool metallic samples to the microkelvin regime, with hold times at the higher temperatures of tens of hours. In the early days of nuclear cooling when sources of heat leaks were hardly understood, such performance would have appeared an impossible dream. However, we are now at the point where solid state experiments can be realistically contemplated in the sub- 10 μK regime.

  3. Non-renewal statistics for electron transport in a molecular junction with electron-vibration interaction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kosov, Daniel S.

    2017-09-01

    Quantum transport of electrons through a molecule is a series of individual electron tunneling events separated by stochastic waiting time intervals. We study the emergence of temporal correlations between successive waiting times for the electron transport in a vibrating molecular junction. Using the master equation approach, we compute the joint probability distribution for waiting times of two successive tunneling events. We show that the probability distribution is completely reset after each tunneling event if molecular vibrations are thermally equilibrated. If we treat vibrational dynamics exactly without imposing the equilibration constraint, the statistics of electron tunneling events become non-renewal. Non-renewal statistics between two waiting times τ1 and τ2 means that the density matrix of the molecule is not fully renewed after time τ1 and the probability of observing waiting time τ2 for the second electron transfer depends on the previous electron waiting time τ1. The strong electron-vibration coupling is required for the emergence of the non-renewal statistics. We show that in the Franck-Condon blockade regime, extremely rare tunneling events become positively correlated.

  4. Modern fire regime resembles historical fire regime in a ponderosa pine forest on Native American land

    Treesearch

    Amanda B. Stan; Peter Z. Fule; Kathryn B. Ireland; Jamie S. Sanderlin

    2014-01-01

    Forests on tribal lands in the western United States have seen the return of low-intensity surface fires for several decades longer than forests on non-tribal lands. We examined the surface fire regime in a ponderosa pinedominated (Pinus ponderosa) forest on the Hualapai tribal lands in the south-western United States. Using fire-scarred trees, we inferred temporal (...

  5. Disturbance regimes and the historical range and variation in terrestrial ecosystems

    Treesearch

    Robert Keane

    2017-01-01

    Disturbances are major drivers of ecological dynamics and it is the cumulative effects of disturbances across space and time that define a disturbance regime and dictate biodiversity by influencing the ranges of vegetation structures, compositions, and processes on landscapes. This range and variation of landscape characteristics under historical disturbance regimes...

  6. DYNAMIC MODELING STRATEGY FOR FLOW REGIME TRANSITION IN GAS-LIQUID TWO-PHASE FLOWS

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    X. Wang; X. Sun; H. Zhao

    In modeling gas-liquid two-phase flows, the concept of flow regime has been used to characterize the global interfacial structure of the flows. Nearly all constitutive relations that provide closures to the interfacial transfers in two-phase flow models, such as the two-fluid model, are often flow regime dependent. Currently, the determination of the flow regimes is primarily based on flow regime maps or transition criteria, which are developed for steady-state, fully-developed flows and widely applied in nuclear reactor system safety analysis codes, such as RELAP5. As two-phase flows are observed to be dynamic in nature (fully-developed two-phase flows generally do notmore » exist in real applications), it is of importance to model the flow regime transition dynamically for more accurate predictions of two-phase flows. The present work aims to develop a dynamic modeling strategy for determining flow regimes in gas-liquid two-phase flows through the introduction of interfacial area transport equations (IATEs) within the framework of a two-fluid model. The IATE is a transport equation that models the interfacial area concentration by considering the creation and destruction of the interfacial area, such as the fluid particle (bubble or liquid droplet) disintegration, boiling and evaporation; and fluid particle coalescence and condensation, respectively. For the flow regimes beyond bubbly flows, a two-group IATE has been proposed, in which bubbles are divided into two groups based on their size and shape (which are correlated), namely small bubbles and large bubbles. A preliminary approach to dynamically identifying the flow regimes is provided, in which discriminators are based on the predicted information, such as the void fraction and interfacial area concentration of small bubble and large bubble groups. This method is expected to be applied to computer codes to improve their predictive capabilities of gas-liquid two-phase flows, in particular for the

  7. On the characteristics of aerosol indirect effect based on dynamic regimes in global climate models

    DOE PAGES

    Zhang, Shipeng; Wang, Minghuai; Ghan, Steven J.; ...

    2016-03-04

    Aerosol–cloud interactions continue to constitute a major source of uncertainty for the estimate of climate radiative forcing. The variation of aerosol indirect effects (AIE) in climate models is investigated across different dynamical regimes, determined by monthly mean 500 hPa vertical pressure velocity ( ω 500), lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) and large-scale surface precipitation rate derived from several global climate models (GCMs), with a focus on liquid water path (LWP) response to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations. The LWP sensitivity to aerosol perturbation within dynamic regimes is found to exhibit a large spread among these GCMs. It is in regimes of strongmore » large-scale ascent ( ω 500  <  −25 hPa day −1) and low clouds (stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus) where the models differ most. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing is also found to differ significantly among different regimes. Shortwave aerosol indirect forcing in ascending regimes is close to that in subsidence regimes, which indicates that regimes with strong large-scale ascent are as important as stratocumulus regimes in studying AIE. It is further shown that shortwave aerosol indirect forcing over regions with high monthly large-scale surface precipitation rate (> 0.1 mm day −1) contributes the most to the total aerosol indirect forcing (from 64 to nearly 100 %). Results show that the uncertainty in AIE is even larger within specific dynamical regimes compared to the uncertainty in its global mean values, pointing to the need to reduce the uncertainty in AIE in different dynamical regimes.« less

  8. Major Characteristics of Southern Ocean Cloud Regimes and Their Effects on the Energy Budget

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haynes, John M.; Jakob, Christian; Rossow, William B.; Tselioudis, George; Brown, Josephine

    2011-01-01

    Clouds over the Southern Ocean are often poorly represented by climate models, but they make a significant contribution to the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance, particularly in the shortwave portion of the energy spectrum. This study seeks to better quantify the organization and structure of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude clouds by combining measurements from active and passive satellite-based datasets. Geostationary and polar-orbiter satellite data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) are used to quantify large-scale, recurring modes of cloudiness, and active observations from CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) are used to examine vertical structure, radiative heating rates, and precipitation associated with these clouds. It is found that cloud systems are organized into eight distinct regimes and that ISCCP overestimates the midlevel cloudiness of these regimes. All regimes contain a relatively high occurrence of low cloud, with 79%of all cloud layers observed having tops below 3 km, but multiple-layered clouds systems are present in approximately 34% of observed cloud profiles. The spatial distribution of regimes varies according to season, with cloud systems being geometrically thicker, on average, during the austral winter. Those regimes found to be most closely associated with midlatitude cyclones produce precipitation the most frequently, although drizzle is extremely common in low-cloud regimes. The regimes associated with cyclones have the highest in-regime shortwave cloud radiative effect at the TOA, but the low-cloud regimes, by virtue of their high frequency of occurrence over the oceans, dominate both TOA and surface shortwave effects in this region as a whole.

  9. Precipitation Efficiency in the Tropical Deep Convective Regime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Li, Xiaofan; Sui, C.-H.; Lau, K.-M.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Precipitation efficiency in the tropical deep convective regime is analyzed based on a 2-D cloud resolving simulation. The cloud resolving model is forced by the large-scale vertical velocity and zonal wind and large-scale horizontal advections derived from TOGA COARE for a 20-day period. Precipitation efficiency may be defined as a ratio of surface rain rate to sum of surface evaporation and moisture convergence (LSPE) or a ratio of surface rain rate to sum of condensation and deposition rates of supersaturated vapor (CMPE). Moisture budget shows that the atmosphere is moistened (dryed) when the LSPE is less (more) than 100 %. The LSPE could be larger than 100 % for strong convection. This indicates that the drying processes should be included in cumulus parameterization to avoid moisture bias. Statistical analysis shows that the sum of the condensation and deposition rates is bout 80 % of the sum of the surface evaporation rate and moisture convergence, which ads to proportional relation between the two efficiencies when both efficiencies are less han 100 %. The CMPE increases with increasing mass-weighted mean temperature and creasing surface rain rate. This suggests that precipitation is more efficient for warm environment and strong convection. Approximate balance of rates among the condensation, deposition, rain, and the raindrop evaporation is used to derive an analytical solution of the CMPE.

  10. Weak- and strong-turbulence regimes of the Hasegawa-Mima equation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ottaviani, M.; Krommes, J.A.

    1992-02-01

    A Kolmogorov-type analysis of the energy- and enstrophy-cascading ranges of the forced Hasegawa-Mima equation allows one to derive a criterion for the threshold of the transition between the weak turbulence and the strong turbulence regimes. It is found that, due to the inverse energy cascade, the large-scale portion of the inertial range is in the strong turbulence regime in the limit of infinite Reynolds-like numbers.

  11. Economic feasibility of longer management regimes in the Douglas-fir region.

    Treesearch

    Richard Haynes

    2005-01-01

    The financial returns associated with extended management regimes have been the subject of recurring debate in the Pacific Northwest. Proponents argue that the amount and value of higher quality timber associated with older trees will offset the costs associated with longer management regimes. Land managers and owners express concerns about diminished financial returns...

  12. Optimal ranking regime analysis of U.S. climate variablility. Part II: Precipitation and streamflow

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    In a preceding companion paper the Optimal Ranking Regime (ORR) method was used to identify intra- to multi-decadal (IMD) regimes in U.S. climate division temperature data during 1896-2012. Here, the method is used to test for annual and seasonal precipitation regimes during that same period. In add...

  13. Political regimes, political ideology, and self-rated health in Europe: a multilevel analysis.

    PubMed

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M; Subramanian, S V

    2010-07-22

    Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime.

  14. Edge mixing dynamics in graphene p–n junctions in the quantum Hall regime

    PubMed Central

    Matsuo, Sadashige; Takeshita, Shunpei; Tanaka, Takahiro; Nakaharai, Shu; Tsukagoshi, Kazuhito; Moriyama, Takahiro; Ono, Teruo; Kobayashi, Kensuke

    2015-01-01

    Massless Dirac electron systems such as graphene exhibit a distinct half-integer quantum Hall effect, and in the bipolar transport regime co-propagating edge states along the p–n junction are realized. Additionally, these edge states are uniformly mixed at the junction, which makes it a unique structure to partition electrons in these edge states. Although many experimental works have addressed this issue, the microscopic dynamics of electron partition in this peculiar structure remains unclear. Here we performed shot-noise measurements on the junction in the quantum Hall regime as well as at zero magnetic field. We found that, in sharp contrast with the zero-field case, the shot noise in the quantum Hall regime is finite in the bipolar regime, but is strongly suppressed in the unipolar regime. Our observation is consistent with the theoretical prediction and gives microscopic evidence that the edge states are uniquely mixed along the p–n junction. PMID:26337445

  15. Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

    PubMed

    Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

    2017-08-01

    As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

  16. Cross-scale analysis of fire regimes

    Treesearch

    Donald A. Falk; Carol Miller; Donald McKenzie; Anne E. Black

    2007-01-01

    Cross-scale spatial and temporal perspectives are important for studying contagious landscape disturbances such as fire, which are controlled by myriad processes operating at different scales. We examine fire regimes in forests of western North America, focusing on how observed patterns of fire frequency change across spatial scales. To quantify changes in fire...

  17. An accurate computational method for the diffusion regime verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhokh, Alexey A.; Strizhak, Peter E.

    2018-04-01

    The diffusion regime (sub-diffusive, standard, or super-diffusive) is defined by the order of the derivative in the corresponding transport equation. We develop an accurate computational method for the direct estimation of the diffusion regime. The method is based on the derivative order estimation using the asymptotic analytic solutions of the diffusion equation with the integer order and the time-fractional derivatives. The robustness and the computational cheapness of the proposed method are verified using the experimental methane and methyl alcohol transport kinetics through the catalyst pellet.

  18. Quantifying the Energy Landscape Statistics in Proteins - a Relaxation Mode Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Zhikun; Zhang, Yang

    Energy landscape, the hypersurface in the configurational space, has been a useful concept in describing complex processes that occur over a very long time scale, such as the multistep slow relaxations of supercooled liquids and folding of polypeptide chains into structured proteins. Despite extensive simulation studies, its experimental characterization still remains a challenge. To address this challenge, we developed a relaxation mode analysis (RMA) for liquids under a framework analogous to the normal mode analysis for solids. Using RMA, important statistics of the activation barriers of the energy landscape becomes accessible from experimentally measurable two-point correlation functions, e.g. using quasi-elastic and inelastic scattering experiments. We observed a prominent coarsening effect of the energy landscape. The results were further confirmed by direct sampling of the energy landscape using a metadynamics-like adaptive autonomous basin climbing computation. We first demonstrate RMA in a supercooled liquid when dynamical cooperativity emerges in the landscape-influenced regime. Then we show this framework reveals encouraging energy landscape statistics when applied to proteins.

  19. Funding Diversity: Performance-Based Funding Regimes as Drivers of Differentiation in Higher Education Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sorlin, Sverker

    2007-01-01

    In most countries higher education institutions used to receive large portions of their funding by direct state allocation. For the past couple of decades this trust-based funding regime has been replaced by performance-based regimes. The article rests on the empirical observation that new funding regimes are increasingly becoming a policy…

  20. Cluster analysis of multiple planetary flow regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mo, Kingtse; Ghil, Michael

    1988-01-01

    A modified cluster analysis method developed for the classification of quasi-stationary events into a few planetary flow regimes and for the examination of transitions between these regimes is described. The method was applied first to a simple deterministic model and then to a 500-mbar data set for Northern Hemisphere (NH), for which cluster analysis was carried out in the subspace of the first seven empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). Stationary clusters were found in the low-frequency band of more than 10 days, while transient clusters were found in the band-pass frequency window between 2.5 and 6 days. In the low-frequency band, three pairs of clusters determined EOFs 1, 2, and 3, respectively; they exhibited well-known regional features, such as blocking, the Pacific/North American pattern, and wave trains. Both model and low-pass data exhibited strong bimodality.

  1. Photoelectron circular dichroism in different ionization regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wollenhaupt, Matthias

    2016-12-01

    Photoelectron circular dichroism (PECD) describes an asymmetry in the photoelectron angular distribution (PAD) from photoionization of randomly oriented enantiomers with circularly polarized light. Beaulieu et al present a comprehensive set of measured PADs from multiphoton ionization of limonene and fenchone in different ionization regimes (multiphoton and tunneling) and analyze the resulting PECD (Beaulieu et al 2016 New J. Phys. 18 102002). From their observations the authors conclude that the PECD is universal in the sense that the molecular chirality is encoded in the PAD independent of the ionization regime. The analysis is supplemented by a classical model based on electron scattering in a chiral potential. The paper presents beautiful data and is an important step towards a more complete physical picture of PECD. The results and their interpretation stimulate the ongoing vivid debate on the role of resonances in multiphoton PECD.

  2. Influence of SST from Pacific and Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric circulation in the precipitation regime of basin from Brazilian SIN

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Custodio, M. D.; Ramos, C. G.; Madeira, P.; de Macedo, A. L.

    2013-12-01

    The South American climate presents tropical, subtropical and extratropical features because of its territorial extension, being influenced by a variety of dynamical systems with different spatial and temporal scales which result in different climatic regimes in their subregions. Furthermore, the precipitation regime in South America is influenced by low-frequency phenomena as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic dipole and the Madden Julian Oscilation (MJO), in other words, is directly influenced by variations of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Due to the importance of the precipitation for many sectors including the planning of productive activities, such as agriculture, livestock and hydropower energy, many studies about climate variations in Brazil have tried to determine and explain the mechanisms that affect the precipitation regime. However, because of complexity of the climate system, and consequently of their impacts on the global precipitation regime, its interactions are not totally understood and therefore misrepresented in numerical models used to forecast climate. The precipitation pattern over hydrographic basin which form the Brasilian National Interconnected System (Sistema Interligado Nacional-SIN) are not yet known and therefore the climate forecast of these regions still presents considerable failure that need to be corrected due to its economic importance. In this context, the purpose here is to determine the precipitation patterns on the Brazilian SIN, based on SST and circulation observed data. In a second phase a forecast climate model for these regions will be produced. In this first moment 30 years (1983 to 2012) of SST over Pacific and Atlantic Ocean were analyzed, along with wind in 850 and 200 hPa and precipitation observed data. The precipitation patterns were analyzed through statistical analyses for interannual (ENSO) and intraseasonal (MJO) anomalies for these variables over the SIN basin. Subsequently, these

  3. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spanbauer, Trisha; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Eason, Tarsha; Fritz, Sherilyn C.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Nash, Kirsty L.; Stone, Jeffery R.; Stow, Craig A.; Sundstrom, Shana M.

    2016-01-01

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana, USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts.

  4. Adaptive management of ecosystem services across different land use regimes.

    PubMed

    Ruhl, J B

    2016-12-01

    Using adaptive management to manage desired flows of ecosystem services may seem on the surface to be a good fit, but many social, economic, environmental, legal, and political factors influence how good a fit. One strongly influential factor is the land use regime within which the profile of ecosystem services is being managed. Shaped largely by legal mandates, market forces, and social and cultural practices, different land use regimes present different opportunities for and constraints on goals for ecosystem services and pose different decision making environments. Even where all other conditions appear amenable to using adaptive management, therefore, it is essential to consider the constraining (or liberating) effects of different land use regimes when deciding whether to adopt adaptive management to achieve those goals and, if so, how to implement it. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Clustering impact regime with shocks in freely evolving granular gas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isobe, Masaharu

    2017-06-01

    A freely cooling granular gas without any external force evolves from the initial homogeneous state to the inhomogeneous clustering state, at which the energy decay deviates from the Haff's law. The asymptotic behavior of energy in the inelastic hard sphere model have been predicted by several theories, which are based on the mode coupling theory or extension of inelastic hard rods gas. In this study, we revisited the clustering regime of freely evolving granular gas via large-scale molecular dynamics simulation with up to 16.7 million inelastic hard disks. We found novel regime regarding on collisions between "clusters" spontaneously appearing after clustering regime, which can only be identified more than a few million particles system. The volumetric dilatation pattern of semicircular shape originated from density shock propagation are well characterized on the appearing of "cluster impact" during the aggregation process of clusters.

  6. The discrete regime of flame propagation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Francois-David; Goroshin, Samuel; Higgins, Andrew

    The propagation of laminar dust flames in iron dust clouds was studied in a low-gravity envi-ronment on-board a parabolic flight aircraft. The elimination of buoyancy-induced convection and particle settling permitted measurements of fundamental combustion parameters such as the burning velocity and the flame quenching distance over a wide range of particle sizes and in different gaseous mixtures. The discrete regime of flame propagation was observed by substitut-ing nitrogen present in air with xenon, an inert gas with a significantly lower heat conductivity. Flame propagation in the discrete regime is controlled by the heat transfer between neighbor-ing particles, rather than by the particle burning rate used by traditional continuum models of heterogeneous flames. The propagation mechanism of discrete flames depends on the spa-tial distribution of particles, and thus such flames are strongly influenced by local fluctuations in the fuel concentration. Constant pressure laminar dust flames were observed inside 70 cm long, 5 cm diameter Pyrex tubes. Equally-spaced plate assemblies forming rectangular chan-nels were placed inside each tube to determine the quenching distance defined as the minimum channel width through which a flame can successfully propagate. High-speed video cameras were used to measure the flame speed and a fiber optic spectrometer was used to measure the flame temperature. Experimental results were compared with predictions obtained from a numerical model of a three-dimensional flame developed to capture both the discrete nature and the random distribution of particles in the flame. Though good qualitative agreement was obtained between model predictions and experimental observations, residual g-jitters and the short reduced-gravity periods prevented further investigations of propagation limits in the dis-crete regime. The full exploration of the discrete flame phenomenon would require high-quality, long duration reduced gravity environment

  7. Exploring the Possible Use of Information Barriers for future Biological Weapons Verification Regimes

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Luke, S J

    2011-12-20

    This report describes a path forward for implementing information barriers in a future generic biological arms-control verification regime. Information barriers have become a staple of discussion in the area of arms control verification approaches for nuclear weapons and components. Information barriers when used with a measurement system allow for the determination that an item has sensitive characteristics without releasing any of the sensitive information. Over the last 15 years the United States (with the Russian Federation) has led on the development of information barriers in the area of the verification of nuclear weapons and nuclear components. The work of themore » US and the Russian Federation has prompted other states (e.g., UK and Norway) to consider the merits of information barriers for possible verification regimes. In the context of a biological weapons control verification regime, the dual-use nature of the biotechnology will require protection of sensitive information while allowing for the verification of treaty commitments. A major question that has arisen is whether - in a biological weapons verification regime - the presence or absence of a weapon pathogen can be determined without revealing any information about possible sensitive or proprietary information contained in the genetic materials being declared under a verification regime. This study indicates that a verification regime could be constructed using a small number of pathogens that spans the range of known biological weapons agents. Since the number of possible pathogens is small it is possible and prudent to treat these pathogens as analogies to attributes in a nuclear verification regime. This study has determined that there may be some information that needs to be protected in a biological weapons control verification regime. To protect this information, the study concludes that the Lawrence Livermore Microbial Detection Array may be a suitable technology for the detection of

  8. Seasonal variation of acute gastro-intestinal illness by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source: a retrospective population-based study.

    PubMed

    Galway, Lindsay P; Allen, Diana M; Parkes, Margot W; Takaro, Tim K

    2014-03-01

    Acute gastro-intestinal illness (AGI) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide and an important public health problem. Despite the fact that AGI is currently responsible for a huge burden of disease throughout the world, important knowledge gaps exist in terms of its epidemiology. Specifically, an understanding of seasonality and those factors driving seasonal variation remain elusive. This paper aims to assess variation in the incidence of AGI in British Columbia (BC), Canada over an 11-year study period. We assessed variation in AGI dynamics in general, and disaggregated by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source. We used several different visual and statistical techniques to describe and characterize seasonal and annual patterns in AGI incidence over time. Our results consistently illustrate marked seasonal patterns; seasonality remains when the dataset is disaggregated by hydroclimatic regime and drinking water source; however, differences in the magnitude and timing of the peaks and troughs are noted. We conclude that systematic descriptions of infectious illness dynamics over time is a valuable tool for informing disease prevention strategies and generating hypotheses to guide future research in an era of global environmental change.

  9. Human impacts on river ice regime in the Carpathian Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takács, Katalin; Nagy, Balázs; Kern, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    River ice is a very important component of the cryosphere, and is especially sensitive to climatic variability. Historical records of appearance or disappearance and timing of ice phenomena are useful indicators for past climatic variations (Williams, 1970). Long-term observations of river ice freeze-up and break-up dates are available for many rivers in the temperate or cold region to detect and analyze the effects of climate change on river ice regime. The ice regime of natural rivers is influenced by climatic, hydrological and morphological factors. Regular ice phenomena observation mostly dates back to the 19th century. During this long-term observation period, the human interventions affecting the hydrological and morphological factors have become more and more intensive (Beltaos and Prowse, 2009). The anthropogenic effects, such as river regulation, hydropower use or water pollution causes different changes in river ice regime (Ashton, 1986). To decrease the occurrence of floods and control the water discharge, nowadays most of the rivers are regulated. River regulation changes the morphological parameters of the river bed: the aim is to create solid and equable bed size and stream gradient to prevent river ice congestion. For the satisfaction of increasing water demands hydropower is also used. River damming results a condition like a lake upstream to the barrage; the flow velocity and the turbulence are low, so this might be favourable for river ice appearance and freeze-up (Starosolsky, 1990). Water pollution affects ice regime in two ways; certain water contaminants change the physical characteristics of the water, e.g. lessens the freezing point of the water. Moreover the thermal stress effect of industrial cooling water and communal wastewater is also important; in winter these water sources are usually warmer, than the water body of the river. These interventions result different changes in the characteristic features of river ice regime. Selected

  10. Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

    2013-04-01

    Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

  11. Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dippner, Joachim W.; Kröncke, Ingrid

    2015-10-01

    Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts. Our results indicate that the performance of multivariate predictors in biological forecasts is much better than that of single large-scale climate indices, especially in the presence of regime shifts. The approach used to develop the index is generally applicable to all geographical regions in the world and to all areas of marine biology, from the species level up to biodiversity. Such forecasts are of vital interest for practical aspects of the sustainable management of marine ecosystems and the conservation of ecosystem goods and services.

  12. Predicting Statistical Response and Extreme Events in Uncertainty Quantification through Reduced-Order Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qi, D.; Majda, A.

    2017-12-01

    A low-dimensional reduced-order statistical closure model is developed for quantifying the uncertainty in statistical sensitivity and intermittency in principal model directions with largest variability in high-dimensional turbulent system and turbulent transport models. Imperfect model sensitivity is improved through a recent mathematical strategy for calibrating model errors in a training phase, where information theory and linear statistical response theory are combined in a systematic fashion to achieve the optimal model performance. The idea in the reduced-order method is from a self-consistent mathematical framework for general systems with quadratic nonlinearity, where crucial high-order statistics are approximated by a systematic model calibration procedure. Model efficiency is improved through additional damping and noise corrections to replace the expensive energy-conserving nonlinear interactions. Model errors due to the imperfect nonlinear approximation are corrected by tuning the model parameters using linear response theory with an information metric in a training phase before prediction. A statistical energy principle is adopted to introduce a global scaling factor in characterizing the higher-order moments in a consistent way to improve model sensitivity. Stringent models of barotropic and baroclinic turbulence are used to display the feasibility of the reduced-order methods. Principal statistical responses in mean and variance can be captured by the reduced-order models with accuracy and efficiency. Besides, the reduced-order models are also used to capture crucial passive tracer field that is advected by the baroclinic turbulent flow. It is demonstrated that crucial principal statistical quantities like the tracer spectrum and fat-tails in the tracer probability density functions in the most important large scales can be captured efficiently with accuracy using the reduced-order tracer model in various dynamical regimes of the flow field with

  13. All-regime combined-cycle plant: Engineering solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berezinets, P. A.; Tumanovskii, G. G.; Tereshina, G. E.; Krylova, I. N.; Markina, V. N.; Migun, E. N.

    2016-12-01

    The development of distributed power generation systems as a supplement to the centralized unified power grid increases the operational stability and efficiency of the entire power generation industry and improves the power supply to consumers. An all-regime cogeneration combined-cycle plant with a power of 20-25 mW (PGU-20/25T) and an electrical efficiency above 50% has been developed at the All-Russia Thermal Engineering Institute (ATEI) as a distributed power generation object. The PGU-20/25T two-circuit cogeneration plant provides a wide electrical and thermal power adjustment range and the absence of the mutual effect of electrical and thermal power output regimes at controlled frequency and power in a unified or isolated grid. The PGU-20/25T combined-cycle plant incorporates a gas-turbine unit (GTU) with a power of 16 MW, a heat recovery boiler (HRB) with two burners (before the boiler and the last heating stage), and a cogeneration steam turbine with a power of 6/9 MW. The PGU-20/25T plant has a maximum electrical power of 22 MW and an efficiency of 50.8% in the heat recovery regime and a maximum thermal power output of 16.3 MW (14 Gcal/h) in the cogeneration regime. The use of burners can increase the electrical power to 25 MW in the steam condensation regime at an efficiency of 49% and the maximum thermal power output to 29.5 MW (25.4 Gcal/h). When the steam turbine is shut down, the thermal power output can grow to 32.6 MW (28 Gcal/h). The innovative equipment, which was specially developed for PGU-20/25T, improves the reliability of this plant and simplifies its operation. Among this equipment are microflame burners in the heat recovery boiler, a vacuum system based on liquid-ring pumps, and a vacuum deaerator. To enable the application of PGU-20/25T in water-stressed regions, an air condenser preventing the heat-transfer tubes from the risk of covering with ice during operation in frost air has been developed. The vacuum system eliminates the need for

  14. Quantum interference magnetoconductance of polycrystalline germanium films in the variable-range hopping regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Zhaoguo; Peng, Liping; Zhang, Jicheng; Li, Jia; Zeng, Yong; Zhan, Zhiqiang; Wu, Weidong

    2018-06-01

    Direct evidence of quantum interference magnetotransport in polycrystalline germanium films in the variable-range hopping (VRH) regime is reported. The temperature dependence of the conductivity of germanium films fulfilled the Mott VRH mechanism with the form of ? in the low-temperature regime (?). For the magnetotransport behaviour of our germanium films in the VRH regime, a crossover, from negative magnetoconductance at the low-field to positive magnetoconductance at the high-field, is observed while the zero-field conductivity is higher than the critical value (?). In the regime of ?, the magnetoconductance is positive and quadratic in the field for some germanium films. These features are in agreement with the VRH magnetotransport theory based on the quantum interference effect among random paths in the hopping process.

  15. Density and spin modes in imbalanced normal Fermi gases from collisionless to hydrodynamic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Narushima, Masato; Watabe, Shohei; Nikuni, Tetsuro

    2018-03-01

    We study the mass- and population-imbalance effect on density (in-phase) and spin (out-of-phase) collective modes in a two-component normal Fermi gas. By calculating the eigenmodes of the linearized Boltzmann equation as well as the density/spin dynamic structure factor, we show that mass- and population-imbalance effects offer a variety of collective mode crossover behaviors from collisionless to hydrodynamic regimes. The mass-imbalance effect shifts the crossover regime to the higher-temperature, and a significant peak of the spin dynamic structure factor emerges only in the collisionless regime. This is in contrast to the case of mass- and population-balanced normal Fermi gases, where the spin dynamic response is always absent. Although the population-imbalance effect does not shift the crossover regime, the spin dynamic structure factor survives both in the collisionless and hydrodynamic regimes.

  16. ANALYSING PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT IN PUBLIC SERVICES: HOW USEFUL IS THE CONCEPT OF A PERFORMANCE REGIME?

    PubMed

    Martin, Steve; Nutley, Sandra; Downe, James; Grace, Clive

    2016-03-01

    Approaches to performance assessment have been described as 'performance regimes', but there has been little analysis of what is meant by this concept and whether it has any real value. We draw on four perspectives on regimes - 'institutions and instruments', 'risk regulation regimes', 'internal logics and effects' and 'analytics of government' - to explore how the concept of a multi-dimensional regime can be applied to performance assessment in public services. We conclude that the concept is valuable. It helps to frame comparative and longitudinal analyses of approaches to performance assessment and draws attention to the ways in which public service performance regimes operate at different levels, how they change over time and what drives their development. Areas for future research include analysis of the impacts of performance regimes and interactions between their visible features (such as inspections, performance indicators and star ratings) and the veiled rationalities which underpin them.

  17. Environmental Flows: Evaluating Long-Term Baselines for Hydrological Regime Change in the Southern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deines, A. M.; Morrison, A. M.; Menzie, C.

    2016-12-01

    The wide variety of ecosystem services associated with running fresh waters are dependent on an assortment of flow conditions including timing and duration of seasonal floods as well as intermittent flows, such as storm peaks. Modern methods of assessing environmental flows consider hydrological regime change by comparing actual or simulated baseline flow conditions against putatively altered regime flows. These calculated flow changes are used as inputs to models of ecosystem responses such as for fish populations, inundated habitat area, or nutrient supplies. However, common and recommended tools and software used to make flow comparisons between putative regimes lack robust mechanisms for evaluating the significance of hydrological regime change in the context of long-term (multiple decades, centuries, or greater) trends, such as climatic conditions, or the facility to determine the existence and causes of regime changes when no obvious discontinuity exists, such as the construction of a dam. As such, environmental flow decisions based on short (recent) baseline records or baseline records assumed to represent stable hydrological conditions may lead to inefficient water use and ecosystem services distribution. Here we examine long-term patterns in discharge, the frequency and severity of regional droughts, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation to better understand the occurrence and causes of hydrological regime change in rivers in the Southern United States. For each river we ask: 1) Has hydrological regime change occurred? 2) To what degree is observed regime change associated with regional climatic drivers? 3) How might environmental flows suggested by current methods (e.g. the USGS Hydroecological Integrity Assessment or the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration software) compare with flows derived by additional consideration of long-term drivers of hydrological change? We discuss the different temporal scales through which climate can influence a

  18. Cloud Regimes as a Tool for Systematic Study of Various Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Cho, Nayeong; Lee, Dongmin

    2016-01-01

    Systematic changes of clouds and precipitation are notoriously difficult to ascribe to aerosols. This presentation will showcase yet one more attempt to at least credibly detect the signal of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. We surmise that the concept of cloud regimes (CRs) is appropriate to conduct such an investigation. Previous studies focused on what we call here dynamical CRs, and while we continue to adopt those too for our analysis, we have found that a different way of organizing cloud systems, namely via microphysical regimes is also promising. Our analysis relies on MODIS Collection 6 Level-3 data for clouds and aerosols, and TRMM-TMPA data for precipitation. The regimes are derived by applying clustering analysis on MODIS joint histograms, and once each grid cell is assigned a regime, aerosol and precipitation data can be spatiotemporally matched and composited by regime. The composites of various cloud and precipitation variables for high (upper quartile of distribution) and low (lower quartile) aerosol loadings can then be contrasted. We seek evidence of aerosol effects both in regimes with large fractions of deep ice-rich clouds, as well as regimes where low liquid phase clouds dominate. Signals can be seen, especially when the analysis is broken by land-ocean and when additional filters are applied, but there are of course caveats which will be discussed.

  19. Political Regimes, Political Ideology, and Self-Rated Health in Europe: A Multilevel Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Huijts, Tim; Perkins, Jessica M.; Subramanian, S. V.

    2010-01-01

    Background Studies on political ideology and health have found associations between individual ideology and health as well as between ecological measures of political ideology and health. Individual ideology and aggregate measures such as political regimes, however, were never examined simultaneously. Methodology/Principal Findings Using adjusted logistic multilevel models to analyze data on individuals from 29 European countries and Israel, we found that individual ideology and political regime are independently associated with self-rated health. Individuals with rightwing ideologies report better health than leftwing individuals. Respondents from Eastern Europe and former Soviet republics report poorer health than individuals from social democratic, liberal, Christian conservative, and former Mediterranean dictatorship countries. In contrast to individual ideology and political regimes, country level aggregations of individual ideology are not related to reporting poor health. Conclusions/Significance This study shows that although both individual political ideology and contextual political regime are independently associated with individuals' self-rated health, individual political ideology appears to be more strongly associated with self-rated health than political regime. PMID:20661433

  20. Regimes of an atmospheric pressure nanosecond repetitively pulsed discharge for methane partial oxidation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maqueo, P. D. G.; Maier, M.; Evans, M. D. G.; Coulombe, S.; Bergthorson, J. M.

    2018-04-01

    The operation of a nanosecond repetitively pulsed discharge for partial oxidation of CH4 is characterized at atmospheric pressure and room temperature. Two regimes are observed: diffuse and filamentary. The first is a low power regime, characterized by low rotational temperatures around 400 K. The second is much more energetic with rotational temperatures close to 600 K. Both have vibrational temperatures of at least 10 times their rotational temperatures. The average electron number density was determined to be 8.9×1015 and 4.0×1017 cm-3, respectively, showing an increase in the ionization fraction in the more powerful filamentary regime. Results of CH4 conversion to H2, CO, CO2 and C2H6 are presented for the filamentary regime, while the diffuse regime shows no measurable conversion ability. As expected, oxidative mixtures show higher conversion ability than pure CH4. A maximum conversion efficiency of 26.3% and a maximum energy efficiency of 19.7% were reached for the oxidative mixtures.

  1. Kinetic nanofriction: a mechanism transition from quasi-continuous to ballistic-like Brownian regime

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Surface diffusion of mobile adsorbates is not only the key to control the rate of dynamical processes on solid surfaces, e.g. epitaxial growth, but also of fundamental importance for recent technological applications, such as nanoscale electro-mechanical, tribological, and surface probing devices. Though several possible regimes of surface diffusion have been suggested, the nanoscale surface Brownian motion, especially in the technologically important low friction regimes, remains largely unexplored. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we show for the first time, that a C60 admolecule on a graphene substrate exhibits two distinct regimes of nanoscale Brownian motion: a quasi-continuous and a ballistic-like. A crossover between these two regimes is realized by changing the temperature of the system. We reveal that the underlying physical origin for this crossover is a mechanism transition of kinetic nanofriction arising from distinctive ways of interaction between the admolecule and the graphene substrate in these two regimes due to the temperature change. Our findings provide insight into surface mass transport and kinetic friction control at the nanoscale. PMID:22353343

  2. Mediterranean summer climate and the monsoon regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baldi, M.; Crisci, A.; Dalu, G. A.; Maracchi, G.; Meneguzzo, F.; Pasqui, M.

    2003-04-01

    The Authors examine the general features of climate of the Mediterranean Region, i.e. its variability and trends in the last 40 years, and the teleconnections between Mediterranean climate and the global climate, using zonal and global indices. In particular they focus the attention on the analysis of the summer Mediterranean climate, and its variability and connection with the summer monsoon regimes. Several subregions can be distinguished in the Mediterranean for each season, and the occurrence of Mediterranean Oscillation is evident between West and East sub-basins. Precipitation and SLP fields in the Eastern basin are shown to be correlated with Mediterranean Oscillation. A total decrease of precipitation has been detected in last few years, although there are some very intense. During winter a fundamental role is played by NAO index, which, influencing the storm tracks coming from the Atlantic and passing over the Mediterranean and North Europe, it has a major role in the precipitation patterns over the Region. Moreover, temperature analysis over the last 40 years in the Mediterranean shows a distinct warming, in agreement with the pattern over North Emisphere and NAO index fluctuations. During summer the Hadley cell extend further northwards, influencing the Mediterranean climate, and there is evidence of a possible teleconnection with the Asian Monsoon, and the Sahel precipitation (and related Hadley cell): the SLP field in the Eastern Mediterranean is inversely correlated with those two precipitation indices, while it is positively correlated with the pressure in the Western Mediterranean. Leading mechanisms of interaction between Mediterranean summer rainfall and SLP patterns and precipitation indices associated with monsoon regimes are stressed out and investigated, as well as the influence of the position and strength of the Hadley cell, by means of both statistical and dynamical analytical arguments. A modeling study has been carried out in order to

  3. Ocean Wave Energy Regimes of the Circumpolar Coastal Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Atkinson, D. E.

    2004-12-01

    Ocean wave activity is a major enviromental forcing agent of the ice-rich sediments that comprise large sections of the arctic coastal margins. While it is instructive to possess information about the wind regimes in these regions, direct application to geomorphological and engineering needs requires knowledge of the resultant wave-energy regimes. Wave energy information has been calculated at the regional scale using adjusted reanalysis model windfield data. Calculations at this scale are not designed to account for local-scale coastline/bathymetric irregularities and variability. Results will be presented for the circumpolar zones specified by the Arctic Coastal Dynamics Project.

  4. Steady and transient regimes in hydropower plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gajic, A.

    2013-12-01

    Hydropower plant that has been in operation for about 30 years has to be reconstructed. They have already installed 12 Kaplan turbines, the largest in the world at that time. The existing CAM relationship was determined based on hydraulic model tests and checked by efficiency on-site tests. It was also tested based on turbine bearing vibrations. In order to discover vibrations and long cracks on stay vanes detailed on-site measurements were performed. Influence of the modification of the trailing edges on the dynamic stresses of the stay vanes is also shown. In order to improve power output transient regimes were analyzed, both experimentally and numerically. Reversible hydropower plant, a pioneer in Europe since it was the first Pump storage power plant constructed with the highest head pump-turbines in the world. Analyses of transient regimes discover some problems with S-shaped characteristics coupled with non-symmetrical penstock.

  5. Cavity quantum electrodynamics in the nonperturbative regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Bernardis, Daniele; Jaako, Tuomas; Rabl, Peter

    2018-04-01

    We study a generic cavity-QED system where a set of (artificial) two-level dipoles is coupled to the electric field of a single-mode L C resonator. This setup is used to derive a minimal quantum mechanical model for cavity QED, which accounts for both dipole-field and direct dipole-dipole interactions. The model is applicable for arbitrary coupling strengths and allows us to extend the usual Dicke model into the nonperturbative regime of QED, where the dipole-field interaction can be associated with an effective fine-structure constant of order unity. In this regime, we identify three distinct classes of normal, superradiant, and subradiant vacuum states and discuss their characteristic properties and the transitions between them. Our findings reconcile many of the previous, often contradictory predictions in this field and establish a common theoretical framework to describe ultrastrong-coupling phenomena in a diverse range of cavity-QED platforms.

  6. Quantum no-scale regimes in string theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coudarchet, Thibaut; Fleming, Claude; Partouche, Hervé

    2018-05-01

    We show that in generic no-scale models in string theory, the flat, expanding cosmological evolutions found at the quantum level can be attracted to a "quantum no-scale regime", where the no-scale structure is restored asymptotically. In this regime, the quantum effective potential is dominated by the classical kinetic energies of the no-scale modulus and dilaton. We find that this natural preservation of the classical no-scale structure at the quantum level occurs when the initial conditions of the evolutions sit in a subcritical region of their space. On the contrary, supercritical initial conditions yield solutions that have no analogue at the classical level. The associated intrinsically quantum universes are sentenced to collapse and their histories last finite cosmic times. Our analysis is done at 1-loop, in perturbative heterotic string compactified on tori, with spontaneous supersymmetry breaking implemented by a stringy version of the Scherk-Schwarz mechanism.

  7. Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lautier, Delphine; Raynaud, Franck

    2011-06-01

    This article presents an empirical study of 13 derivative markets for commodities and financial assets. The study goes beyond statistical analysis by including the maturity as a variable for the daily returns of futures contracts from 1998 to 2010, and for delivery dates up to 120 months. We observe that the mean and variance of the commodities follow a scaling behavior in the maturity dimension with an exponent characteristic of the Samuelson effect. The comparison between the tails of the probability distribution according to the expiration dates shows that there is a segmentation in the fat tails exponent term structure above the Lévy stable region. Finally, we compute the average tail exponent for each maturity, and we observe two regimes of extreme events for derivative markets, reminiscent of a phase diagram with a sharp transition at the 18th delivery month.

  8. Mapping fire regimes from data you may already have: assessing LANDFIRE fire regime maps using local products

    Treesearch

    Melissa A. Thomas-Van Gundy

    2014-01-01

    LANDFIRE maps of fire regime groups are frequently used by land managers to help plan and execute prescribed burns for ecosystem restoration. Since LANDFIRE maps are generally applicable at coarse scales, questions often arise regarding their utility and accuracy. Here, the two recently published products from West Virginia, a rule-based and a witness tree-based model...

  9. Gender policy developments and policy regimes in 22 OECD countries, 1979-2008.

    PubMed

    Backhans, Mona C; Burström, Bo; Marklund, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates trends and clustering of gender policy in 22 OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries during 1979-2008. The starting point was Sainsbury's gender policy regime framework, and the study included indicators reflecting the male bread-winner, individual earner-carer, and separate gender roles regimes. The indicators were followed over seven time points for mean, range, and distribution. Cluster analyses were performed for the years 1979, 1989, 1999, and 2004. In accordance with previous studies, the authors found a Nordic cluster of earner-carer countries, while several Southern European countries and the United States were marked by their low generosity and high pension requirements. Though aspects of the separate gender roles regime have become more widespread, no country could be classified as fully belonging to this regime type. The two aspects of the model--compensatory measures in the pension system, and benefits for caring activities--were never present simultaneously.

  10. Distinct turbulence sources and confinement features in the spherical tokamak plasma regime

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, W. X.; Ethier, S.; Ren, Y.; ...

    2015-10-30

    New turbulence contributions to plasma transport and confinement in the spherical tokamak (ST) regime are identified through nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations. The drift wave Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) mode characterized by intrinsic mode asymmetry is shown to drive significant ion thermal transport in strongly rotating national spherical torus experiment (NSTX) L-modes. The long wavelength, quasi-coherent dissipative trapped electron mode (TEM) is destabilized in NSTX H-modes despite the presence of strong E x B shear, providing a robust turbulence source dominant over collisionless TEM. Dissipative trapped electron mode (DTEM)-driven transport in the NSTX parametric regime is shown to increase with electron collision frequency, offeringmore » one possible source for the confinement scaling observed in experiments. There exists a turbulence-free regime in the collision-induced collisionless trapped electron mode to DTEM transition for ST plasmas. In conclusion, this predicts a natural access to a minimum transport state in the low collisionality regime that future advanced STs may cover.« less

  11. Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we assessed whether body size patterns serve as an indicator of a threshold between alternative regimes. Over the past 7000 years, the biological communities of Foy Lake (Montana,USA) have undergone a major regime shift owing to climate change. We used a palaeoecological record of diatom communities to estimate diatom sizes, and then analysed the discontinuous distribution of organism sizes over time. We used Bayesian classification and regression tree models to determine that all time intervals exhibited aggregations of sizes separated by gaps in the distribution and found a significant change in diatom body size distributions approximately 150 years before the identified ecosystem regime shift. We suggest that discontinuity analysis is a useful addition to the suite of tools for the detection of early warning signals of regime shifts. Communities of organisms from mammals to microorganisms have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at discrete spatial and temporal scales within ecosystems. Here, a paleoecological record of diatom community change is use

  12. Classification of Arctic, midlatitude and tropical clouds in the mixed-phase temperature regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Anja; Meyer, Jessica; Afchine, Armin; Luebke, Anna; Günther, Gebhard; Dorsey, James R.; Gallagher, Martin W.; Ehrlich, Andre; Wendisch, Manfred; Baumgardner, Darrel; Wex, Heike; Krämer, Martina

    2017-10-01

    The degree of glaciation of mixed-phase clouds constitutes one of the largest uncertainties in climate prediction. In order to better understand cloud glaciation, cloud spectrometer observations are presented in this paper, which were made in the mixed-phase temperature regime between 0 and -38 °C (273 to 235 K), where cloud particles can either be frozen or liquid. The extensive data set covers four airborne field campaigns providing a total of 139 000 1 Hz data points (38.6 h within clouds) over Arctic, midlatitude and tropical regions. We develop algorithms, combining the information on number concentration, size and asphericity of the observed cloud particles to classify four cloud types: liquid clouds, clouds in which liquid droplets and ice crystals coexist, fully glaciated clouds after the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process and clouds where secondary ice formation occurred. We quantify the occurrence of these cloud groups depending on the geographical region and temperature and find that liquid clouds dominate our measurements during the Arctic spring, while clouds dominated by the Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen process are most common in midlatitude spring. The coexistence of liquid water and ice crystals is found over the whole mixed-phase temperature range in tropical convective towers in the dry season. Secondary ice is found at midlatitudes at -5 to -10 °C (268 to 263 K) and at higher altitudes, i.e. lower temperatures in the tropics. The distribution of the cloud types with decreasing temperature is shown to be consistent with the theory of evolution of mixed-phase clouds. With this study, we aim to contribute to a large statistical database on cloud types in the mixed-phase temperature regime.

  13. Simulated Radar Characteristics of LBA Convective Systems: Easterly and Westerly Regimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lang, Stephen E.; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Simpson, Joanne

    2003-01-01

    The 3D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model was used to simulate convection that occurred during the TRMM LBA field experiment in Brazil. Convection in this region can be categorized into two different regimes. Low-level easterly flow results in moderate to high CAPE and a drier environment. Convection is more intense like that seen over continents. Low-level westerly flow results in low CAPE and a moist environment. Convection is weaker and more widespread characteristic of oceanic or monsoon-like systems. The GCE model has been used to study both regimes n order to provide cloud datasets that are representative of both environments in support of TRMM rainfall and heating algorithm development. Two different cases are analyzed: Jan 26, 1999, an eastely regime case, and Feb 23, 1999, a westerly regime case. The Jan 26 case is an organized squall line, while the Feb 23 case is less organized with only transient lines. Radar signatures, including CFADs, from the two simulated cases are compared to each other and with observations. The microphysical processes simulated in the model are also compared between the two cases.

  14. Two regimes of vortex penetration into platelet-shaped type-II superconductors

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brandt, E. H.; Mikitik, G. P., E-mail: mikitik@ilt.kharkov.ua; Zeldov, E.

    Vortex penetration into a thin superconducting strip of a rectangular cross section is considered at an increasing applied magnetic field H{sub a}, taking an interplay between the Bean-Livingston and the geometric barriers in the sample into account. We calculate the magnetic field H{sub p} at which the penetration begins and show that two regimes of vortex penetration are possible. In the first regime, vortices appearing at the corners of the strip at H{sub a} = H{sub p} immediately move to its center, where a vortex dome starts to develop. In the second regime, the penetration occurs in two stages. Inmore » the first stage, at H{sub a} < H{sub p}, tilted vortices penetrate into the edge regions of the strip, where novel domes are shown to be formed at the top, bottom, and lateral surfaces. In the second stage, at H{sub a} = H{sub p}, the vortex propagation to the center becomes possible. The difference between the regimes manifests itself in slightly different dependences of the magnetic moment of the strip on H{sub a}.« less

  15. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes

    PubMed Central

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-01-01

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime. PMID:27074883

  16. Flow regimes in a T-mixer operating with a binary mixture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Camarri, Simone; Siconolfi, Lorenzo; Galletti, Chiara; Salvetti, Maria Vittoria

    2015-11-01

    Efficient mixing in small volumes is a key target in many processes. Among the most common micro-devices, passive T-shaped micro-mixers are widely used. For this reason, T-mixers have been studied in the literature and its working flow regimes have been identified. However, in most of the available theoretical studies it is assumed that only one working fluid is used, i.e. that the same fluid at the same thermodynamic conditions is entering the two inlet conduits of the mixer. Conversely, the practical use of micro-devices often involves the mixing of two different fluids or of the same fluid at different thermodynamic conditions. In this case flow regimes significantly different than those observed for a single working fluid may occur. The present work aims at investigating the flow regimes in a T-mixers when water at two different temperatures, i.e. having different viscosity and density, is entering the mixer. The effect of the temperature difference on the flow regimes in a 3D T-mixer is investigated by DNS and stability analysis and the results are compared to the case in which a single working fluid is employed.

  17. Planktonic events may cause polymictic-dimictic regime shifts in temperate lakes.

    PubMed

    Shatwell, Tom; Adrian, Rita; Kirillin, Georgiy

    2016-04-14

    Water transparency affects the thermal structure of lakes, and within certain lake depth ranges, it can determine whether a lake mixes regularly (polymictic regime) or stratifies continuously (dimictic regime) from spring through summer. Phytoplankton biomass can influence transparency but the effect of its seasonal pattern on stratification is unknown. Therefore we analysed long term field data from two lakes of similar depth, transparency and climate but one polymictic and one dimictic, and simulated a conceptual lake with a hydrodynamic model. Transparency in the study lakes was typically low during spring and summer blooms and high in between during the clear water phase (CWP), caused when zooplankton graze the spring bloom. The effect of variability of transparency on thermal structure was stronger at intermediate transparency and stronger during a critical window in spring when the rate of lake warming is highest. Whereas the spring bloom strengthened stratification in spring, the CWP weakened it in summer. The presence or absence of the CWP influenced stratification duration and under some conditions determined the mixing regime. Therefore seasonal plankton dynamics, including biotic interactions that suppress the CWP, can influence lake temperatures, stratification duration, and potentially also the mixing regime.

  18. Regime of validity of the pairing Hamiltonian in the study of Fermi gases

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chang, S. Y.; Pandharipande, V. R.

    2006-06-01

    The ground state energy and pairing gap of the interacting Fermi gases calculated by the ab initio stochastic method are compared with those estimated from the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer pairing Hamiltonian. We discuss the ingredients of this Hamiltonian in various regimes of interaction strength. In the weakly interacting (1/ak{sub F}<<0) regime the BCS Hamiltonian should describe Landau quasiparticle energies and interactions, on the other hand, in the strongly pairing regime, that is, 1/ak{sub F} > or approx. 0, it becomes part of the bare Hamiltonian. However, the bare BCS Hamiltonian is not adequate for describing atomic gases in the regime of weakmore » to moderate interaction strength -{infinity}<1/ak{sub F}<0 such as ak{sub F}{approx}-1.« less

  19. Effect of Critical Displacement Parameter on Slip Regime at Subduction Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muldashev, Iskander; Sobolev, Stephan

    2016-04-01

    It is widely accepted that for the simple fault models value of critical displacement parameter (Dc) in Ruina-Dietrich's rate-and-state friction law is responsible for the transition from stick-slip regime at low Dc to non-seismic creep regime at large Dc. However, neither the value of "transition" Dc parameter nor the character of the transition is known for the realistic subduction zone setting. Here we investigate effect of Dc on regime of slip at subduction faults for two setups, generic model similar to simple shear elastic slider under quasistatic loading and full subduction model with appropriate geometry, stress and temperature distribution similar to the setting at the site of the Great Chile Earthquake of 1960. In our modeling we use finite element numerical technique that employs non-linear elasto-visco-plastic rheology in the entire model domain with rate-and-state plasticity within the fault zone. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequence. Adaptive time-step integration procedure varies time step from 40 seconds at instability (earthquake), and gradually increases it to 5 years during postseismic relaxation. The technique allows observing the effect of Dc on period, magnitude of earthquakes through the cycles. We demonstrate that our modeling results for the generic model are consistent with the previous theoretical and numeric modeling results. For the full subduction model we obtain transition from non-seismic creep to stick-slip regime at Dc about 20 cm. We will demonstrate and discuss the features of the transition regimes in both generic and realistic subduction models.

  20. Mutual interference between statistical summary perception and statistical learning.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Jiaying; Ngo, Nhi; McKendrick, Ryan; Turk-Browne, Nicholas B

    2011-09-01

    The visual system is an efficient statistician, extracting statistical summaries over sets of objects (statistical summary perception) and statistical regularities among individual objects (statistical learning). Although these two kinds of statistical processing have been studied extensively in isolation, their relationship is not yet understood. We first examined how statistical summary perception influences statistical learning by manipulating the task that participants performed over sets of objects containing statistical regularities (Experiment 1). Participants who performed a summary task showed no statistical learning of the regularities, whereas those who performed control tasks showed robust learning. We then examined how statistical learning influences statistical summary perception by manipulating whether the sets being summarized contained regularities (Experiment 2) and whether such regularities had already been learned (Experiment 3). The accuracy of summary judgments improved when regularities were removed and when learning had occurred in advance. In sum, calculating summary statistics impeded statistical learning, and extracting statistical regularities impeded statistical summary perception. This mutual interference suggests that statistical summary perception and statistical learning are fundamentally related.

  1. Effects of roughness on density-weighted particle statistics in turbulent channel flows

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Milici, Barbara

    2015-12-31

    The distribution of inertial particles in turbulent flows is strongly influenced by the characteristics of the coherent turbulent structures which develop in the carrier flow field. In wall-bounded flows, these turbulent structures, which control the turbulent regeneration cycles, are strongly affected by the roughness of the wall, nevertheless its effects on the particle transport in two-phase turbulent flows has been still poorly investigated. The issue is discussed here by addressing DNS combined with LPT to obtain statistics of velocity and preferential accumulation of a dilute dispersion of heavy particles in a turbulent channel flow, bounded by irregular two-dimensional rough surfaces,more » in the one-way coupling regime.« less

  2. Iron fertilisation by Asian dust influences North Pacific sardine regime shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Yongsong

    2015-05-01

    Forcing factors and mechanisms underlying multidecadal variability in the production of the world's major fish stocks are one of the great mysteries of the oceans. The Japanese and California sardine are species that exhibit the regime shifts. It is shown in the present work that during two periods of frequent Asian dust events over the last 100 years, sardines on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean only flourished under a dust-active regime. The earlier such regime that peaked in the 1930s was strong, and it brought synchronous changes in the two species that were linked to the frequency of Asian dust events. However, there is an apparent mismatch in the rise and fall of abundance between the two species in the current dust-active regime. The massive increase in Japanese sardine stock in the 1970s was related to high levels of ocean precipitation and strong winter mixing, whereas the stock collapse since 1988 has been attributed to diminished winter mixing. High levels of ocean precipitation in the western North Pacific effectively cause wet deposition of Asian dust and enhance Japanese sardine stock, whereas it reduces dust flux that can be transported to the eastern North Pacific, delaying the increase of California sardine stock. Analysis further indicates that productivity of Japanese sardine stock is jointly controlled by wet deposition of Asian dust and winter mixing, which supplies macronutrients from depth. California sardine productivity is inversely related to precipitation in the western North Pacific and is positively affected by precipitation off western North America. This indicates that Asian dust influx dominates productivity of the species because of iron-limited ocean productivity in the California sardine ranges. The analysis suggests that dust regime shifts influence shifts in sardine productivity regimes and that iron input from Asian dust during trans-Pacific transport is directly responsible. It appears that in addition to enhancing

  3. Regime dependence of photo-darkening-induced modal degradation in high power fiber amplifier (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boullet, Johan; Vincont, Cyril; Jolly, Alain; Pierre, Christophe

    2017-03-01

    Thermally induced transverse modal instabilities (TMI) have attracted these five years an intense research efforts of the entire fiber laser development community, as it represents the current most limiting effect of further power scaling of high power fiber laser. Anyway, since 2014, a few publications point out a new limiting thermal effect: fiber modal degradation (FMD). It is characterized by a power rollover and simultaneous increase of the cladding light at an average power far from the TMI threshold together with a degraded beam which does not exhibit temporal fluctuations, which is one of the main characteristic of TMI. We report here on the first systemic experimental study of FMD in a high power photonic crystal fiber. We put a particular emphasis on the dependence of its average power threshold on the regime of operation. We experimentally demonstrate that this dependence is intrinsically linked to regime-dependent PD-saturated losses, which are nearly three times higher in CW regime than in short pulse picosecond regime. We make the hypothesis that the existence of these different PD equilibrium states between CW regime and picosecond QCW pulsed regime is due to a partial photo-bleaching of color centers in picosecond regime thanks to a higher probability of multi-photon process induced photobleaching (PB) at high peak power. This hypothesis is corroborated by the demonstration of the reversibility of the FMD induced in CW regime by simply switching the seed CW 1064 nm light by a short pulse, picosecond oscillator.

  4. Characterization of self-affinity in the global regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neimark, Alexander V.

    1994-11-01

    Methods for characterization of self-affine surfaces and measurements of their roughness exponents H are developed. It is shown that for smoothed surfaces, which underwent particular coarse graining or averaging of the small-scale fluctuations, the excess surface area Sex and the mean square root radius of curvature ac are related by two distinct asymptotic power laws if ac is well below or well above a certain crossover scale acr. In the local regime of self-affinity, when ac<regime of self-affinity, when ac>>acr, Sex~(ac/acr)-2(1-H)/(2-H). The former scaling relationship is consistent with the well known definition of local fractal dimensions dloc=dtop+1-H. The latter scaling relationship offers alternatives for characterization of self-affinity over large scales by means of excess dimensions defined as dex=dtop+2(1-H)/(2-H) and can be used for determination of roughness exponents from the measurements provided in the global regime. The thermodynamic method of fractal analysis, proposed earlier for self-similar surfaces (A.V. Neimark, Pis'ma Zh. Eksp. Teor. Fiz. 51, 535 (1990) [JETP Lett. 51, 607 (1990)]; Physica A 191, 258 (1992)), is extended for self-affine surfaces for determination of fractal dimensions and roughness exponents from adsorption and capillary experimental data.

  5. Cloud encounter statistics in the 28.5-43.5 KFT altitude region from four years of GASP observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jasperson, W. H.; Nastrom, G. D.; Davis, R. E.; Holdeman, J. D.

    1983-01-01

    The results of an analysis of cloud encounter measurements taken at aircraft flight altitudes as part of the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program are summarized. The results can be used in estimating the probability of cloud encounter and in assessing the economic feasibility of laminar flow control aircraft along particular routes. The data presented clearly show the tropical circulation and its seasonal migration; characteristics of the mid-latitude regime, such as the large-scale traveling cyclones in the winter and increased convective activity in the summer, can be isolated in the data. The cloud encounter statistics are shown to be consistent with the mid-latitude cyclone model. A model for TIC (time-in-clouds), a cloud encounter statistic, is presented for several common airline routes.

  6. Analysis of climate and topographic effect on wildfire regime in Liguria, Italy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko; Degli Esposti, Silvia

    2016-04-01

    available information layers: elevation, slope, aspect, rainfall height, temperature (the latter subdivided in winter and summer periods). The algorithm is designed in order to assure the equal representation of each class, in which the number of fires occurred in the period of analysis is considered, in order to have an estimation of the fire hazard with a constant statistical confidence. The analysis was carried out at a spatial resolution of 20 m on the Liguria region territory (5400 km2) by using a dataset of fires occurrences that spans from 1996 to 2013. The results show a very high correlation with the topographic aspects both in winter and summer. Rainfall is almost uncorrelated in both season. Air temperature is high correlated with the burned area but it is strictly related with elevation. Independently by the season and the vegetation cover, elevation and slope show a very high correlation with the burned area determining almost completely the wildfire regime in Liguria.

  7. Knowledge Regimes and Contradictions in Education Reforms

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aasen, Petter; Prøitz, Tine Sophie; Sandberg, Nina

    2014-01-01

    The article outlines a theoretical framework for understanding education policy and education reforms based on the concept of knowledge regimes. The concept refers to understandings and definitions of governance and procedural aspects, manners of governing and curriculum issues, thus it comprises contents, structures, and processes of education…

  8. Turbulent transport regimes and the SOL heat flux width

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Myra, J. R.; D'Ippolito, D. A.; Russell, D. A.

    2014-10-01

    Understanding the responsible mechanisms and resulting scaling of the scrape-off layer (SOL) heat flux width is important for predicting viable operating regimes in future tokamaks, and for seeking possible mitigation schemes. Simulation and theory results using reduced edge/SOL turbulence models have produced SOL widths and scalings in reasonable accord with experiments in many cases. In this work, we attempt to qualitatively and conceptually understand various regimes of edge/SOL turbulence and the role of turbulent transport in establishing the SOL heat flux width. Relevant considerations include the type and spectral characteristics of underlying instabilities, the location of the gradient drive relative to the SOL, the nonlinear saturation mechanism, and the parallel heat transport regime. Recent SOLT turbulence code results are employed to understand the roles of these considerations and to develop analytical scalings. We find a heat flux width scaling with major radius R that is generally positive, consistent with older results reviewed in. The possible relationship of turbulence mechanisms to the heuristic drift mechanism is considered, together with implications for future experiments. Work supported by US DOE grant DE-FG02-97ER54392.

  9. Linking meteorological drivers of spring-summer drought regimes to agricultural drought risk in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, L.; Wright, J. S.; Yu, C.; Huang, W. Y.

    2017-12-01

    As a drought prone country, China has experienced frequent severe droughts in recent decades. Drought frequency and severity are projected to increase in China under climate change. An understanding of the physical processes that contribute to extreme droughts is essential for seasonal forecasting, but the dominant physical mechanisms responsible for droughts in most parts of China are still unclear. Moreover, despite numerous studies on droughts in China, there are few clear connections between the meteorological and climatological drivers of extreme droughts and the associated agricultural consequences. This knowledge gap limits the capacity for decision-making support in drought management. The objectives of this study are (1) to identify robust spring-summer drought regimes over China, (2) to investigate the physical mechanisms associated with each regime, and (3) to better clarify connections between meteorological drought regimes and agricultural drought risk. First, we identify six drought regimes over China by applying an area-weighted k-means clustering technique to spatial patterns of spring-summer Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) obtained from the ten-member ERA-20CM ensemble for 1900-2010. Second, we project these drought regimes onto agricultural drought risk maps for the three major cereal crops (rice, maize, and wheat) in China. Taking into account historical harvest areas for these crops, we then evaluate the potential impact of each drought regime on agricultural production. Third, the physical mechanisms and meteorological context behind each drought regimes are investigated based on monthly outputs from ERA20CM. We analyze the preceding and concurrent atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with each regime, and propose mechanistic explanations for drought development. This work provides a new perspective on diagnosing the physical mechanisms behind seasonal droughts, and lays a foundation for improving seasonal drought prediction and

  10. Statistical relationship between the succeeding solar flares detected by the RHESSI satellite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balázs, L. G.; Gyenge, N.; Korsós, M. B.; Baranyi, T.; Forgács-Dajka, E.; Ballai, I.

    2014-06-01

    The Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager has observed more than 80 000 solar energetic events since its launch on 2002 February 12. Using this large sample of observed flares, we studied the spatiotemporal relationship between succeeding flares. Our results show that the statistical relationship between the temporal and spatial differences of succeeding flares can be described as a power law of the form R(t) ˜ tp with p = 0.327 ± 0.007. We discuss the possible interpretations of this result as a characteristic function of a supposed underlying physics. Different scenarios are considered to explain this relation, including the case where the connectivity between succeeding events is realized through a shock wave in the post Sedov-Taylor phase or where the spatial and temporal relationship between flares is supposed to be provided by an expanding flare area in the sub-diffusive regime. Furthermore, we cannot exclude the possibility that the physical process behind the statistical relationship is the reordering of the magnetic field by the flare or it is due to some unknown processes.

  11. Prediction of gas-liquid two-phase flow regime in microgravity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Jinho; Platt, Jonathan A.

    1993-01-01

    An attempt is made to predict gas-liquid two-phase flow regime in a pipe in a microgravity environment through scaling analysis based on dominant physical mechanisms. Simple inlet geometry is adopted in the analysis to see the effect of inlet configuration on flow regime transitions. Comparison of the prediction with the existing experimental data shows good agreement, though more work is required to better define some physical parameters. The analysis clarifies much of the physics involved in this problem and can be applied to other configurations.

  12. Champagne experiences various rhythmical bubbling regimes in a flute.

    PubMed

    Liger-Belair, Gérard; Tufaile, Alberto; Jeandet, Philippe; Sartorelli, José-Carlos

    2006-09-20

    Bubble trains are seen rising gracefully from a few points on the glass wall (called nucleation sites) whenever champagne is poured into a glass. As time passes during the gas-discharging process, the careful observation of some given bubble columns reveals that the interbubble distance may change suddenly, thus revealing different rhythmical bubbling regimes. Here, it is reported that the transitions between the different bubbling regimes of some nucleation sites during gas discharging is a process which may be ruled by a strong interaction between tiny gas pockets trapped inside the nucleation site and/or also by an interaction between the tiny bubbles just blown from the nucleation site.

  13. Examining the role of fluctuations in the early stages of homogenous polymer crystallization with simulation and statistical learning

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Welch, Jr., Paul Michael

    Here, we propose a relationship between the dynamics in the amorphous and crystalline domains during polymer crystallization: the fluctuations of ordering-rate about a material-specific value in the amorphous phase drive those fluctuations associated with the increase in percent crystallinity. This suggests a differential equation that satisfies the three experimentally observed time regimes for the rate of crystal growth. To test this postulated expression, we applied a suite of statistical learning tools to molecular dynamics simulations to extract the relevant phenomenology. This study shows that the proposed relationship holds in the early time regime. It illustrates the effectiveness of soft computingmore » tools in the analysis of coarse-grained simulations in which patterns exist, but may not easily yield to strict quantitative evaluation. This ability assists us in characterizing the critical early time molecular arrangement during the primary nucleation phase of polymer melt crystallization. In addition to supporting the validity of the proposed kinetics expression, the simulations show that (i) the classical nucleation and growth mechanism is active in the early stages of ordering; (ii) the number of nuclei and their masses grow linearly during this early time regime; and (iii) a fixed inter-nuclei distance is established.« less

  14. Examining the role of fluctuations in the early stages of homogenous polymer crystallization with simulation and statistical learning

    DOE PAGES

    Welch, Jr., Paul Michael

    2017-01-23

    Here, we propose a relationship between the dynamics in the amorphous and crystalline domains during polymer crystallization: the fluctuations of ordering-rate about a material-specific value in the amorphous phase drive those fluctuations associated with the increase in percent crystallinity. This suggests a differential equation that satisfies the three experimentally observed time regimes for the rate of crystal growth. To test this postulated expression, we applied a suite of statistical learning tools to molecular dynamics simulations to extract the relevant phenomenology. This study shows that the proposed relationship holds in the early time regime. It illustrates the effectiveness of soft computingmore » tools in the analysis of coarse-grained simulations in which patterns exist, but may not easily yield to strict quantitative evaluation. This ability assists us in characterizing the critical early time molecular arrangement during the primary nucleation phase of polymer melt crystallization. In addition to supporting the validity of the proposed kinetics expression, the simulations show that (i) the classical nucleation and growth mechanism is active in the early stages of ordering; (ii) the number of nuclei and their masses grow linearly during this early time regime; and (iii) a fixed inter-nuclei distance is established.« less

  15. Scalable quantum memory in the ultrastrong coupling regime.

    PubMed

    Kyaw, T H; Felicetti, S; Romero, G; Solano, E; Kwek, L-C

    2015-03-02

    Circuit quantum electrodynamics, consisting of superconducting artificial atoms coupled to on-chip resonators, represents a prime candidate to implement the scalable quantum computing architecture because of the presence of good tunability and controllability. Furthermore, recent advances have pushed the technology towards the ultrastrong coupling regime of light-matter interaction, where the qubit-resonator coupling strength reaches a considerable fraction of the resonator frequency. Here, we propose a qubit-resonator system operating in that regime, as a quantum memory device and study the storage and retrieval of quantum information in and from the Z2 parity-protected quantum memory, within experimentally feasible schemes. We are also convinced that our proposal might pave a way to realize a scalable quantum random-access memory due to its fast storage and readout performances.

  16. Scalable quantum memory in the ultrastrong coupling regime

    PubMed Central

    Kyaw, T. H.; Felicetti, S.; Romero, G.; Solano, E.; Kwek, L.-C.

    2015-01-01

    Circuit quantum electrodynamics, consisting of superconducting artificial atoms coupled to on-chip resonators, represents a prime candidate to implement the scalable quantum computing architecture because of the presence of good tunability and controllability. Furthermore, recent advances have pushed the technology towards the ultrastrong coupling regime of light-matter interaction, where the qubit-resonator coupling strength reaches a considerable fraction of the resonator frequency. Here, we propose a qubit-resonator system operating in that regime, as a quantum memory device and study the storage and retrieval of quantum information in and from the Z2 parity-protected quantum memory, within experimentally feasible schemes. We are also convinced that our proposal might pave a way to realize a scalable quantum random-access memory due to its fast storage and readout performances. PMID:25727251

  17. A Prospective Comparative Study of the Toxicity Profile of 5-Flurouracil, Adriamycin, Cyclophosphamide Regime VS Adriamycin, Paclitaxel Regime in Patients with Locally Advanced Breast Carcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Pillai, Pradeep Sadasivan; Jayakumar, Krishnan Nair Lalithamma

    2015-01-01

    Introduction A 5-flurouracil, Adriamycin, Cyclophosphamide (FAC) and Adriamycin, Paclitaxel (AT) are two popular chemotherapeutic regimens for treatment of breast carcinoma. The most time tested and popular regimen is FAC. It is extensively studied for efficacy and toxicity. But data regarding toxicity profile and efficacy of AT regimen is sparse. Aim To study the toxicity profile, severity of toxicities and clinical response rate of FAC and AT regimens in patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma. Materials and Methods A prospective observational study with 50 patients in each treatment arm. Study duration was 12 months from November 2012 to October 2013. Consecutive patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma receiving treatment with either FAC or AT regimen, satisfying inclusion criteria were enrolled into the study after getting informed written consent. Prior to initiation of treatment detailed medical history was taken from all patients. General clinical examination, examination of organ systems and local examination of breast lump were done. After each cycle of chemotherapy and after completion of treatment patients were interviewed and examined for clinical response and toxicities. Toxicities were graded with WHO toxicity grading criteria. All data were entered in a structured proforma. At least 50% reduction in tumour size was taken as adequate clinical response. Statistical Analysis Data was analysed using Chi-square test with help of Excel 2007 and SPSS-16 statistical software. Results Different pattern of toxicities were seen with FAC and AT regimens. Anaemia, thrombocytopenia, stomatitis, hyperpigmentation, photosensitivity and diarrhoea were more common with patients receiving FAC regimen. Leucopenia, peripheral neuropathy, myalgia, arthralgia, vomiting and injection site reactions were more common in AT regimen. Both FAC and AT regimens gave 100% clinical response. Conclusion FAC and AT regimens are equally efficacious but have different

  18. The importance of within-system spatial variation in drivers of marine ecosystem regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Fisher, J. A. D.; Casini, M.; Frank, K. T.; Möllmann, C.; Leggett, W. C.; Daskalov, G.

    2015-01-01

    Comparative analyses of the dynamics of exploited marine ecosystems have led to differing hypotheses regarding the primary causes of observed regime shifts, while many ecosystems have apparently not undergone regime shifts. These varied responses may be partly explained by the decade-old recognition that within-system spatial heterogeneity in key climate and anthropogenic drivers may be important, as recent theoretical examinations have concluded that spatial heterogeneity in environmental characteristics may diminish the tendency for regime shifts. Here, we synthesize recent, empirical within-system spatio-temporal analyses of some temperate and subarctic large marine ecosystems in which regime shifts have (and have not) occurred. Examples from the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bengula Current, North Sea, Barents Sea and Eastern Scotian Shelf reveal the largely neglected importance of considering spatial variability in key biotic and abiotic influences and species movements in the context of evaluating and predicting regime shifts. We highlight both the importance of understanding the scale-dependent spatial dynamics of climate influences and key predator–prey interactions to unravel the dynamics of regime shifts, and the utility of spatial downscaling of proposed mechanisms (as evident in the North Sea and Barents Sea) as a means of evaluating hypotheses originally derived from among-system comparisons.

  19. Identifying past fire regimes throughout the Holocene in Ireland using new and established methods of charcoal analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawthorne, Donna; Mitchell, Fraser J. G.

    2016-04-01

    Globally, in recent years there has been an increase in the scale, intensity and level of destruction caused by wildfires. This can be seen in Ireland where significant changes in vegetation, land use, agriculture and policy, have promoted an increase in fires in the Irish landscape. This study looks at wildfire throughout the Holocene and draws on lacustrine charcoal records from seven study sites spread across Ireland, to reconstruct the past fire regimes recorded at each site. This work utilises new and accepted methods of fire history reconstruction to provide a recommended analytical procedure for statistical charcoal analysis. Digital charcoal counting was used and fire regime reconstructions carried out via the CharAnalysis programme. To verify this record new techniques are employed; an Ensemble-Member strategy to remove the objectivity associated with parameter selection, a Signal to Noise Index to determine if the charcoal record is appropriate for peak detection, and a charcoal peak screening procedure to validate the identified fire events based on bootstrapped samples. This analysis represents the first study of its kind in Ireland, examining the past record of fire on a multi-site and paleoecological timescale, and will provide a baseline level of data which can be built on in the future when the frequency and intensity of fire is predicted to increase.

  20. The effect of neutrally buoyant finite-size particles on channel flows in the laminar-turbulent transition regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loisel, Vincent; Abbas, Micheline; Masbernat, Olivier; Climent, Eric

    2013-12-01

    The presence of finite-size particles in a channel flow close to the laminar-turbulent transition is simulated with the Force Coupling Method which allows two-way coupling with the flow dynamics. Spherical particles with channel height-to-particle diameter ratio of 16 are initially randomly seeded in a fluctuating flow above the critical Reynolds number corresponding to single phase flow relaminarization. When steady-state is reached, the particle volume fraction is homogeneously distributed in the channel cross-section (ϕ ≅ 5%) except in the near-wall region where it is larger due to inertia-driven migration. Turbulence statistics (intensity of velocity fluctuations, small-scale vortical structures, wall shear stress) calculated in the fully coupled two-phase flow simulations are compared to single-phase flow data in the transition regime. It is observed that particles increase the transverse r.m.s. flow velocity fluctuations and they break down the flow coherent structures into smaller, more numerous and sustained eddies, preventing the flow to relaminarize at the single-phase critical Reynolds number. When the Reynolds number is further decreased and the suspension flow becomes laminar, the wall friction coefficient recovers the evolution of the laminar single-phase law provided that the suspension viscosity is used in the Reynolds number definition. The residual velocity fluctuations in the suspension correspond to a regime of particulate shear-induced agitation.

  1. Ignitability of materials in transitional heating regimes

    Treesearch

    Mark A. Dietenberger

    2004-01-01

    Piloted ignition behavior of materials, particularly wood products, during transitions between heating regimes is measured and modeled in a cone calorimetry (ISO 5660) heating environment. These include (1) effect of material thickness, density, moisture content, and paint coating variations on thermal response characteristics, (2) effect of fire retardant treatment...

  2. Laminar, turbulent, and inertial shear-thickening regimes in channel flow of neutrally buoyant particle suspensions.

    PubMed

    Lashgari, Iman; Picano, Francesco; Breugem, Wim-Paul; Brandt, Luca

    2014-12-19

    The aim of this Letter is to characterize the flow regimes of suspensions of finite-size rigid particles in a viscous fluid at finite inertia. We explore the system behavior as a function of the particle volume fraction and the Reynolds number (the ratio of flow and particle inertia to viscous forces). Unlike single-phase flows, where a clear distinction exists between the laminar and the turbulent states, three different regimes can be identified in the presence of a particulate phase, with smooth transitions between them. At low volume fractions, the flow becomes turbulent when increasing the Reynolds number, transitioning from the laminar regime dominated by viscous forces to the turbulent regime characterized by enhanced momentum transport by turbulent eddies. At larger volume fractions, we identify a new regime characterized by an even larger increase of the wall friction. The wall friction increases with the Reynolds number (inertial effects) while the turbulent transport is weakly affected, as in a state of intense inertial shear thickening. This state may prevent the transition to a fully turbulent regime at arbitrary high speed of the flow.

  3. Stochastic or statistic? Comparing flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

    2015-09-01

    The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drives of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by a strong wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are strongly favored over statistical models.

  4. Statistical properties of radiation power levels from a high-gain free-electron laser at and beyond saturation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schroeder, C. B.; Fawley, W. M.; Esarey, E.

    2003-07-01

    We investigate the statistical properties (e.g., shot-to-shot power fluctuations) of the radiation from a high-gain free-electron laser (FEL) operating in the nonlinear regime. We consider the case of an FEL amplifier reaching saturation whose shot-to-shot fluctuations in input radiation power follow a gamma distribution. We analyze the corresponding output power fluctuations at and beyond saturation, including beam energy spread effects, and find that there are well-characterized values of undulator length for which the fluctuations reach a minimum.

  5. Proliferation Control Regimes: Background and Status

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-25

    States has signed such agreements with Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Belize, Croatia, Cyprus, Liberia, Malta, the Marshall Islands , Mongolia...Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), and the Australia Group. The informal Australia Group...biological agents or toxins “of types and in quantities that have no justification for peaceful purposes.” The missile nonproliferation regime is founded not

  6. Effects of national forest-management regimes on unprotected forests of the Himalaya.

    PubMed

    Brandt, Jodi S; Allendorf, Teri; Radeloff, Volker; Brooks, Jeremy

    2017-12-01

    Globally, deforestation continues, and although protected areas effectively protect forests, the majority of forests are not in protected areas. Thus, how effective are different management regimes to avoid deforestation in non-protected forests? We sought to assess the effectiveness of different national forest-management regimes to safeguard forests outside protected areas. We compared 2000-2014 deforestation rates across the temperate forests of 5 countries in the Himalaya (Bhutan, Nepal, China, India, and Myanmar) of which 13% are protected. We reviewed the literature to characterize forest management regimes in each country and conducted a quasi-experimental analysis to measure differences in deforestation of unprotected forests among countries and states in India. Countries varied in both overarching forest-management goals and specific tenure arrangements and policies for unprotected forests, from policies emphasizing economic development to those focused on forest conservation. Deforestation rates differed up to 1.4% between countries, even after accounting for local determinants of deforestation, such as human population density, market access, and topography. The highest deforestation rates were associated with forest policies aimed at maximizing profits and unstable tenure regimes. Deforestation in national forest-management regimes that emphasized conservation and community management were relatively low. In India results were consistent with the national-level results. We interpreted our results in the context of the broader literature on decentralized, community-based natural resource management, and our findings emphasize that the type and quality of community-based forestry programs and the degree to which they are oriented toward sustainable use rather than economic development are important for forest protection. Our cross-national results are consistent with results from site- and regional-scale studies that show forest-management regimes that

  7. Investigation of thermal effects on FinFETs in the quasi-ballistic regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Longxiang; Shen, Lei; Di, Shaoyan; Du, Gang; Liu, Xiaoyan

    2018-04-01

    In this work, the thermal effects of FinFETs in the quasi-ballistic regime are investigated using the Monte Carlo method. Bulk Si nFinFETs with the same fin structure and two different gate lengths L g = 20 and 80 nm are investigated and compared to evaluate the thermal effects on the performance of FinFETs in the quasi-ballistic regime. The on current of the 20 nm FinFET with V gs = 0.7 V does not decrease with increasing lattice temperature (T L) at a high V ds. The electrostatic properties in the 20 nm FinFET are more affected by T L than those in the 80 nm FinFET. However, the electron transport in the 20 nm FinFET is less affected by T L than that in the 80 nm FinFET. The electrostatic properties being more sensitive and the electron transport being less sensitive to thermal effects in the quasi-ballistic regime than in the diffusive regime should be considered for effective device modeling and design.

  8. Pyrodiversity is the coupling of biodiversity and fire regimes in food webs

    PubMed Central

    Higgins, Steve I.; Johnson, Chris N.; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D.

    2016-01-01

    Fire positively and negatively affects food webs across all trophic levels and guilds and influences a range of ecological processes that reinforce fire regimes, such as nutrient cycling and soil development, plant regeneration and growth, plant community assembly and dynamics, herbivory and predation. Thus we argue that rather than merely describing spatio-temporal patterns of fire regimes, pyrodiversity must be understood in terms of feedbacks between fire regimes, biodiversity and ecological processes. Humans shape pyrodiversity both directly, by manipulating the intensity, severity, frequency and extent of fires, and indirectly, by influencing the abundance and distribution of various trophic guilds through hunting and husbandry of animals, and introduction and cultivation of plant species. Conceptualizing landscape fire as deeply embedded in food webs suggests that the restoration of degraded ecosystems requires the simultaneous careful management of fire regimes and native and invasive plants and animals, and may include introducing new vertebrates to compensate for extinctions that occurred in the recent and more distant past. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216526

  9. Rule-based mapping of fire-adapted vegetation and fire regimes for the Monongahela National Forest

    Treesearch

    Melissa A. Thomas-Van Gundy; Gregory J. Nowacki; Thomas M. Schuler

    2007-01-01

    A rule-based approach was employed in GIS to map fire-adapted vegetation and fire regimes within the proclamation boundary of the Monongahela National Forest. Spatial analyses and maps were generated using ArcMap 9.1. The resulting fireadaptation scores were then categorized into standard fire regime groups. Fire regime group V (200+ yrs) was the most common, assigned...

  10. [Statistics for statistics?--Thoughts about psychological tools].

    PubMed

    Berger, Uwe; Stöbel-Richter, Yve

    2007-12-01

    Statistical methods take a prominent place among psychologists' educational programs. Being known as difficult to understand and heavy to learn, students fear of these contents. Those, who do not aspire after a research carrier at the university, will forget the drilled contents fast. Furthermore, because it does not apply for the work with patients and other target groups at a first glance, the methodological education as a whole was often questioned. For many psychological practitioners the statistical education makes only sense by enforcing respect against other professions, namely physicians. For the own business, statistics is rarely taken seriously as a professional tool. The reason seems to be clear: Statistics treats numbers, while psychotherapy treats subjects. So, does statistics ends in itself? With this article, we try to answer the question, if and how statistical methods were represented within the psychotherapeutical and psychological research. Therefore, we analyzed 46 Originals of a complete volume of the journal Psychotherapy, Psychosomatics, Psychological Medicine (PPmP). Within the volume, 28 different analyse methods were applied, from which 89 per cent were directly based upon statistics. To be able to write and critically read Originals as a backbone of research, presumes a high degree of statistical education. To ignore statistics means to ignore research and at least to reveal the own professional work to arbitrariness.

  11. Statistical Forecasting of Current and Future Circum-Arctic Ground Temperatures and Active Layer Thickness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aalto, J.; Karjalainen, O.; Hjort, J.; Luoto, M.

    2018-05-01

    Mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) and active layer thickness (ALT) are key to understanding the evolution of the ground thermal state across the Arctic under climate change. Here a statistical modeling approach is presented to forecast current and future circum-Arctic MAGT and ALT in relation to climatic and local environmental factors, at spatial scales unreachable with contemporary transient modeling. After deploying an ensemble of multiple statistical techniques, distance-blocked cross validation between observations and predictions suggested excellent and reasonable transferability of the MAGT and ALT models, respectively. The MAGT forecasts indicated currently suitable conditions for permafrost to prevail over an area of 15.1 ± 2.8 × 106 km2. This extent is likely to dramatically contract in the future, as the results showed consistent, but region-specific, changes in ground thermal regime due to climate change. The forecasts provide new opportunities to assess future Arctic changes in ground thermal state and biogeochemical feedback.

  12. Multi-metric calibration of hydrological model to capture overall flow regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhang, Shifeng; Zhai, Xiaoyan; She, Dunxian

    2016-08-01

    Flow regimes (e.g., magnitude, frequency, variation, duration, timing and rating of change) play a critical role in water supply and flood control, environmental processes, as well as biodiversity and life history patterns in the aquatic ecosystem. The traditional flow magnitude-oriented calibration of hydrological model was usually inadequate to well capture all the characteristics of observed flow regimes. In this study, we simulated multiple flow regime metrics simultaneously by coupling a distributed hydrological model with an equally weighted multi-objective optimization algorithm. Two headwater watersheds in the arid Hexi Corridor were selected for the case study. Sixteen metrics were selected as optimization objectives, which could represent the major characteristics of flow regimes. Model performance was compared with that of the single objective calibration. Results showed that most metrics were better simulated by the multi-objective approach than those of the single objective calibration, especially the low and high flow magnitudes, frequency and variation, duration, maximum flow timing and rating. However, the model performance of middle flow magnitude was not significantly improved because this metric was usually well captured by single objective calibration. The timing of minimum flow was poorly predicted by both the multi-metric and single calibrations due to the uncertainties in model structure and input data. The sensitive parameter values of the hydrological model changed remarkably and the simulated hydrological processes by the multi-metric calibration became more reliable, because more flow characteristics were considered. The study is expected to provide more detailed flow information by hydrological simulation for the integrated water resources management, and to improve the simulation performances of overall flow regimes.

  13. Synoptic regimes associated with the eastern Mediterranean wet season cyclone tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Awad, Adel M.

    2016-11-01

    The main synoptic patterns associated with the wet season (October-May) eastern Mediterranean cyclones have been analyzed and described using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the period 1958-2013. The cyclone tracks detected in the eastern Mediterranean are classified into two types based on their positions: the local tracks and the long tracks. The local tracks are either stationary or short tracks. The long tracks distinguished into eleven very closed and highly correlated clusters, which are presented into three regimes namely the northern, the southern and the eastern border Mediterranean regimes. Among the 940 (44.78% of a total of 2099) long tracks, the northern, southern, and eastern border regime contributes respectively about 53.62%, 41.81% and 5% of the long tracks. In addition, the distribution of the long tracks reveals that a larger proportion of the cyclones are generated at the northern coast during November and spring months, while few cyclones are developed over the eastern Mediterranean border in warm months (April and May). Further, their synoptic features show that the regimes are associated with the extension of Azores high, specifically for each regime, the cyclogenesis areas of its clusters are controlled by the intersection of low level (850 hPa) trough and the position of the upper level (250 hPa) maximum wind. Furthermore, the orientations of clusters are controlled by the extension of Siberian high and the shape of cyclonic trough at 850 hPa. In addition, the synoptic study shows that most of the southern cyclones generated externally by African and Red Sea troughs, while most of the northern and eastern border cyclones are generated internally.

  14. Numerical modeling of flow focusing: Quantitative characterization of the flow regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mamet, V.; Namy, P.; Dedulle, J.-M.

    2017-09-01

    Among droplet generation technologies, the flow focusing technique is a major process due to its control, stability, and reproducibility. In this process, one fluid (the continuous phase) interacts with another one (the dispersed phase) to create small droplets. Experimental assays in the literature on gas-liquid flow focusing have shown that different jet regimes can be obtained depending on the operating conditions. However, the underlying physical phenomena remain unclear, especially mechanical interactions between the fluids and the oscillation phenomenon of the liquid. In this paper, based on published studies, a numerical diphasic model has been developed to take into consideration the mechanical interaction between phases, using the Cahn-Hilliard method to monitor the interface. Depending on the liquid/gas inputs and the geometrical parameters, various regimes can be obtained, from a steady state regime to an unsteady one with liquid oscillation. In the dispersed phase, the model enables us to compute the evolution of fluid flow, both in space (size of the recirculation zone) and in time (period of oscillation). The transition between unsteady and stationary regimes is assessed in relation to liquid and gas dimensionless numbers, showing the existence of critical thresholds. This model successfully highlights, qualitatively and quantitatively, the influence of the geometry of the nozzle, in particular, its inner diameter.

  15. General slip regime permeability model for gas flow through porous media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Bo; Jiang, Peixue; Xu, Ruina; Ouyang, Xiaolong

    2016-07-01

    A theoretical effective gas permeability model was developed for rarefied gas flow in porous media, which holds over the entire slip regime with the permeability derived as a function of the Knudsen number. This general slip regime model (GSR model) is derived from the pore-scale Navier-Stokes equations subject to the first-order wall slip boundary condition using the volume-averaging method. The local closure problem for the volume-averaged equations is studied analytically and numerically using a periodic sphere array geometry. The GSR model includes a rational fraction function of the Knudsen number which leads to a limit effective permeability as the Knudsen number increases. The mechanism for this behavior is the viscous fluid inner friction caused by converging-diverging flow channels in porous media. A linearization of the GSR model leads to the Klinkenberg equation for slightly rarefied gas flows. Finite element simulations show that the Klinkenberg model overestimates the effective permeability by as much as 33% when a flow approaches the transition regime. The GSR model reduces to the unified permeability model [F. Civan, "Effective correlation of apparent gas permeability in tight porous media," Transp. Porous Media 82, 375 (2010)] for the flow in the slip regime and clarifies the physical significance of the empirical parameter b in the unified model.

  16. Impact of Climate Change and Human Intervention on River Flow Regimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Rajendra; Mittal, Neha; Mishra, Ashok

    2017-04-01

    Climate change and human interventions like dam construction bring freshwater ecosystem under stress by changing flow regime. It is important to analyse their impact at a regional scale along with changes in the extremes of temperature and precipitation which further modify the flow regime components such as magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate of change of flow. In this study, the Kangsabati river is chosen to analyse the hydrological alterations in its flow regime caused by dam, climate change and their combined impact using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program based on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA). Results show that flow variability is significantly reduced due to dam construction with high flows getting absorbed and pre-monsoon low flows being augmented by the reservoir. Climate change alone reduces the high peaks whereas a combination of dam and climate change significantly reduces variability by affecting both high and low flows, thereby further disrupting the functioning of riverine ecosystems. Analysis shows that in the Kangsabati basin, influence of dam is greater than that of the climate change, thereby emphasising the significance of direct human intervention. Keywords: Climate change, human impact, flow regime, Kangsabati river, SWAT, IHA, RVA.

  17. Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tagestad, Jerry; Brooks, Matthew L.; Cullinan, Valerie; Downs, Janelle; McKinley, Randy

    2016-01-01

    Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

  18. Dynamic regimes of local homogeneous population model with time lag

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Neverova, Galina; Frisman, Efim

    We investigated Moran - Ricker model with time lag 1. It is made analytical and numerical study of the model. It is shown there is co-existence of various dynamic regimes under the same values of parameters. The model simultaneously possesses several different limit regimes: stable state, periodic fluctuations, and chaotic attractor. The research results show if present population size substantially depends on population number of previous year then it is observed quasi-periodic oscillations. Fluctuations with period 2 occur when the growth of population size is regulated by density dependence in the current year.

  19. Push-out bond strength of three calcium silicate cements to root canal dentine after two different irrigation regimes.

    PubMed

    Çelik, Davut; Er, Kürşat; Serper, Ahmet; Taşdemir, Tamer; Ceyhanlı, Kadir Tolga

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the push-out bond strength of three calcium silicate cements to dentine after two different irrigation regimes. One hundred eighty 2-mm-thick root sections were prepared. The sections were divided into three main groups (n = 60). In group A, the sections were immersed in 1 % NaOCl for 3 min. In group B, the sections were immersed in 17 % EDTA for 3 min followed by 1 % NaOCl for the same period of time. In group C (control group), no irrigation was applied to the sections. The samples from each group were divided into four subgroups (n = 15). In subgroups A1, B1 and C1, DiaRoot BioAggregate; in subgroups A2, B2 and C2, MTA-Angelus and in subgroups A3, B3 and C3, MM-MTA were mixed with hand-mixing. In subgroups A4, B4 and C4, MM-MTA was mixed with auto-mixing. The mixed cements were then placed into cavities with a carrier. The samples were submitted to the push-out test and were loaded. All the data were analysed with one-way analysis of variance and the Tukey HSD multiple comparisons (p < 0.05). There were no statistically significant differences between the irrigation regimes regardless of the used materials. The resistance to displacement in subgroup B4 was significantly greater than that presented by subgroups A3, B3 and C3 (p < 0.05) while not different than all other groups. Irrigation regimes had not affected the push-out bond strength of the calcium silicate cements. Also, strength of auto-mixed MM-MTA was similar to the other cements. The novel calcium silicate cements would be a potentially useful material in endodontic procedures with favourable properties.

  20. Cell chip temperature measurements in different operation regimes of HCPV modules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rumyantsev, V. D.; Chekalin, A. V.; Davidyuk, N. Yu.; Malevskiy, D. A.; Pokrovskiy, P. V.; Sadchikov, N. A.; Pan'chak, A. N.

    2013-09-01

    A new method has been developed for accurate measurements of the solar cell temperature in maximum power point (MPP) operation regime in comparison with that in open circuit (OC) regime (TMPP and TOC). For this, an electronic circuit has been elaborated for fast variation of the cell load conditions and for voltage measurements, so that VOC values could serve as an indicator of TMPP at the first moment after the load disconnection. The method was verified in indoor investigations of the single-junction AlGaAs/GaAs cells under CW laser irradiation, where different modifications of the heat spreaders were involved. PV modules of the "SMALFOC" design (Small-size concentrators; Multijunction cells; "All-glass" structure; Lamination technology; Fresnel Optics for Concentration) with triple-junction InGaP/GaAs/Ge cells were examined outdoors to evaluate temperature regimes of their operation.