Standard deviation and standard error of the mean.

PubMed

Lee, Dong Kyu; In, Junyong; Lee, Sangseok

2015-06-01

In most clinical and experimental studies, the standard deviation (SD) and the estimated standard error of the mean (SEM) are used to present the characteristics of sample data and to explain statistical analysis results. However, some authors occasionally muddle the distinctive usage between the SD and SEM in medical literature. Because the process of calculating the SD and SEM includes different statistical inferences, each of them has its own meaning. SD is the dispersion of data in a normal distribution. In other words, SD indicates how accurately the mean represents sample data. However the meaning of SEM includes statistical inference based on the sampling distribution. SEM is the SD of the theoretical distribution of the sample means (the sampling distribution). While either SD or SEM can be applied to describe data and statistical results, one should be aware of reasonable methods with which to use SD and SEM. We aim to elucidate the distinctions between SD and SEM and to provide proper usage guidelines for both, which summarize data and describe statistical results.

Standard deviation and standard error of the mean

PubMed Central

In, Junyong; Lee, Sangseok

2015-01-01

In most clinical and experimental studies, the standard deviation (SD) and the estimated standard error of the mean (SEM) are used to present the characteristics of sample data and to explain statistical analysis results. However, some authors occasionally muddle the distinctive usage between the SD and SEM in medical literature. Because the process of calculating the SD and SEM includes different statistical inferences, each of them has its own meaning. SD is the dispersion of data in a normal distribution. In other words, SD indicates how accurately the mean represents sample data. However the meaning of SEM includes statistical inference based on the sampling distribution. SEM is the SD of the theoretical distribution of the sample means (the sampling distribution). While either SD or SEM can be applied to describe data and statistical results, one should be aware of reasonable methods with which to use SD and SEM. We aim to elucidate the distinctions between SD and SEM and to provide proper usage guidelines for both, which summarize data and describe statistical results. PMID:26045923

Distribution of the two-sample t-test statistic following blinded sample size re-estimation.

PubMed

Lu, Kaifeng

2016-05-01

We consider the blinded sample size re-estimation based on the simple one-sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two-sample t-test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re-estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non-inferiority margin for non-inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical learning from nonrecurrent experience with discrete input variables and recursive-error-minimization equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, Jeffrey R.; Simon, Wayne E.

1990-08-01

Neural networks are trained using Recursive Error Minimization (REM) equations to perform statistical classification. Using REM equations with continuous input variables reduces the required number of training experiences by factors of one to two orders of magnitude over standard back propagation. Replacing the continuous input variables with discrete binary representations reduces the number of connections by a factor proportional to the number of variables reducing the required number of experiences by another order of magnitude. Undesirable effects of using recurrent experience to train neural networks for statistical classification problems are demonstrated and nonrecurrent experience used to avoid these undesirable effects. 1. THE 1-41 PROBLEM The statistical classification problem which we address is is that of assigning points in ddimensional space to one of two classes. The first class has a covariance matrix of I (the identity matrix) the covariance matrix of the second class is 41. For this reason the problem is known as the 1-41 problem. Both classes have equal probability of occurrence and samples from both classes may appear anywhere throughout the ddimensional space. Most samples near the origin of the coordinate system will be from the first class while most samples away from the origin will be from the second class. Since the two classes completely overlap it is impossible to have a classifier with zero error. The minimum possible error is known as the Bayes error and

Scaled test statistics and robust standard errors for non-normal data in covariance structure analysis: a Monte Carlo study.

PubMed

Chou, C P; Bentler, P M; Satorra, A

1991-11-01

Research studying robustness of maximum likelihood (ML) statistics in covariance structure analysis has concluded that test statistics and standard errors are biased under severe non-normality. An estimation procedure known as asymptotic distribution free (ADF), making no distributional assumption, has been suggested to avoid these biases. Corrections to the normal theory statistics to yield more adequate performance have also been proposed. This study compares the performance of a scaled test statistic and robust standard errors for two models under several non-normal conditions and also compares these with the results from ML and ADF methods. Both ML and ADF test statistics performed rather well in one model and considerably worse in the other. In general, the scaled test statistic seemed to behave better than the ML test statistic and the ADF statistic performed the worst. The robust and ADF standard errors yielded more appropriate estimates of sampling variability than the ML standard errors, which were usually downward biased, in both models under most of the non-normal conditions. ML test statistics and standard errors were found to be quite robust to the violation of the normality assumption when data had either symmetric and platykurtic distributions, or non-symmetric and zero kurtotic distributions.

Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2014-01-01

This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.

STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER AND THE ERROR ASSOCIATED WITH SAMPLING FREQUENCY. (R828678C010)

EPA Science Inventory

The distribution of particulate matter (PM) concentrations has an impact on human health effects and the setting of PM regulations. Since PM is commonly sampled on less than daily schedules, the magnitude of sampling errors needs to be determined. Daily PM data from Spokane, W...

On-line estimation of error covariance parameters for atmospheric data assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dee, Dick P.

1995-01-01

A simple scheme is presented for on-line estimation of covariance parameters in statistical data assimilation systems. The scheme is based on a maximum-likelihood approach in which estimates are produced on the basis of a single batch of simultaneous observations. Simple-sample covariance estimation is reasonable as long as the number of available observations exceeds the number of tunable parameters by two or three orders of magnitude. Not much is known at present about model error associated with actual forecast systems. Our scheme can be used to estimate some important statistical model error parameters such as regionally averaged variances or characteristic correlation length scales. The advantage of the single-sample approach is that it does not rely on any assumptions about the temporal behavior of the covariance parameters: time-dependent parameter estimates can be continuously adjusted on the basis of current observations. This is of practical importance since it is likely to be the case that both model error and observation error strongly depend on the actual state of the atmosphere. The single-sample estimation scheme can be incorporated into any four-dimensional statistical data assimilation system that involves explicit calculation of forecast error covariances, including optimal interpolation (OI) and the simplified Kalman filter (SKF). The computational cost of the scheme is high but not prohibitive; on-line estimation of one or two covariance parameters in each analysis box of an operational bozed-OI system is currently feasible. A number of numerical experiments performed with an adaptive SKF and an adaptive version of OI, using a linear two-dimensional shallow-water model and artificially generated model error are described. The performance of the nonadaptive versions of these methods turns out to depend rather strongly on correct specification of model error parameters. These parameters are estimated under a variety of conditions, including uniformly distributed model error and time-dependent model error statistics.

Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals of Norm Statistics for Educational and Psychological Tests.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Hannah E M; van der Ark, L Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

2016-11-14

Norm statistics allow for the interpretation of scores on psychological and educational tests, by relating the test score of an individual test taker to the test scores of individuals belonging to the same gender, age, or education groups, et cetera. Given the uncertainty due to sampling error, one would expect researchers to report standard errors for norm statistics. In practice, standard errors are seldom reported; they are either unavailable or derived under strong distributional assumptions that may not be realistic for test scores. We derived standard errors for four norm statistics (standard deviation, percentile ranks, stanine boundaries and Z-scores) under the mild assumption that the test scores are multinomially distributed. A simulation study showed that the standard errors were unbiased and that corresponding Wald-based confidence intervals had good coverage. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for applying the standard errors in practical test use in education and psychology. The procedure is provided via the R function check.norms, which is available in the mokken package.

Ensemble codes involving hippocampal neurons are at risk during delayed performance tests.

PubMed

Hampson, R E; Deadwyler, S A

1996-11-26

Multielectrode recording techniques were used to record ensemble activity from 10 to 16 simultaneously active CA1 and CA3 neurons in the rat hippocampus during performance of a spatial delayed-nonmatch-to-sample task. Extracted sources of variance were used to assess the nature of two different types of errors that accounted for 30% of total trials. The two types of errors included ensemble "miscodes" of sample phase information and errors associated with delay-dependent corruption or disappearance of sample information at the time of the nonmatch response. Statistical assessment of trial sequences and associated "strength" of hippocampal ensemble codes revealed that miscoded error trials always followed delay-dependent error trials in which encoding was "weak," indicating that the two types of errors were "linked." It was determined that the occurrence of weakly encoded, delay-dependent error trials initiated an ensemble encoding "strategy" that increased the chances of being correct on the next trial and avoided the occurrence of further delay-dependent errors. Unexpectedly, the strategy involved "strongly" encoding response position information from the prior (delay-dependent) error trial and carrying it forward to the sample phase of the next trial. This produced a miscode type error on trials in which the "carried over" information obliterated encoding of the sample phase response on the next trial. Application of this strategy, irrespective of outcome, was sufficient to reorient the animal to the proper between trial sequence of response contingencies (nonmatch-to-sample) and boost performance to 73% correct on subsequent trials. The capacity for ensemble analyses of strength of information encoding combined with statistical assessment of trial sequences therefore provided unique insight into the "dynamic" nature of the role hippocampus plays in delay type memory tasks.

Errors in radial velocity variance from Doppler wind lidar

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Doubrawa, P.

A high-fidelity lidar turbulence measurement technique relies on accurate estimates of radial velocity variance that are subject to both systematic and random errors determined by the autocorrelation function of radial velocity, the sampling rate, and the sampling duration. Our paper quantifies the effect of the volumetric averaging in lidar radial velocity measurements on the autocorrelation function and the dependence of the systematic and random errors on the sampling duration, using both statistically simulated and observed data. For current-generation scanning lidars and sampling durations of about 30 min and longer, during which the stationarity assumption is valid for atmospheric flows, themore » systematic error is negligible but the random error exceeds about 10%.« less

Errors in radial velocity variance from Doppler wind lidar

DOE PAGES

Wang, H.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Doubrawa, P.; ...

2016-08-29

A high-fidelity lidar turbulence measurement technique relies on accurate estimates of radial velocity variance that are subject to both systematic and random errors determined by the autocorrelation function of radial velocity, the sampling rate, and the sampling duration. Our paper quantifies the effect of the volumetric averaging in lidar radial velocity measurements on the autocorrelation function and the dependence of the systematic and random errors on the sampling duration, using both statistically simulated and observed data. For current-generation scanning lidars and sampling durations of about 30 min and longer, during which the stationarity assumption is valid for atmospheric flows, themore » systematic error is negligible but the random error exceeds about 10%.« less

How Large Should a Statistical Sample Be?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Menil, Violeta C.; Ye, Ruili

2012-01-01

This study serves as a teaching aid for teachers of introductory statistics. The aim of this study was limited to determining various sample sizes when estimating population proportion. Tables on sample sizes were generated using a C[superscript ++] program, which depends on population size, degree of precision or error level, and confidence…

Laser Velocimeter Measurements and Analysis in Turbulent Flows with Combustion. Part 2.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-01

sampling error for 63 this sample size. Mean velocities and turbulence intensi- ties were found to be statistically accurate to ± 1 % and 13%, respectively...Although the statist - ical error was found to be rather small (± 1 % for mean velo- cities and 13% for turbulence intensities), there can be additional...34Computational and Experimental Study of a Captive Annular Eddy," Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol. 28, pt. 1 , pp. 43-63, 12 April, 1967. 152 REFERENCES (con’d

Errors in causal inference: an organizational schema for systematic error and random error.

PubMed

Suzuki, Etsuji; Tsuda, Toshihide; Mitsuhashi, Toshiharu; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Yamamoto, Eiji

2016-11-01

To provide an organizational schema for systematic error and random error in estimating causal measures, aimed at clarifying the concept of errors from the perspective of causal inference. We propose to divide systematic error into structural error and analytic error. With regard to random error, our schema shows its four major sources: nondeterministic counterfactuals, sampling variability, a mechanism that generates exposure events and measurement variability. Structural error is defined from the perspective of counterfactual reasoning and divided into nonexchangeability bias (which comprises confounding bias and selection bias) and measurement bias. Directed acyclic graphs are useful to illustrate this kind of error. Nonexchangeability bias implies a lack of "exchangeability" between the selected exposed and unexposed groups. A lack of exchangeability is not a primary concern of measurement bias, justifying its separation from confounding bias and selection bias. Many forms of analytic errors result from the small-sample properties of the estimator used and vanish asymptotically. Analytic error also results from wrong (misspecified) statistical models and inappropriate statistical methods. Our organizational schema is helpful for understanding the relationship between systematic error and random error from a previously less investigated aspect, enabling us to better understand the relationship between accuracy, validity, and precision. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Practical aspects regarding sample size in clinical research].

PubMed

Vega Ramos, B; Peraza Yanes, O; Herrera Correa, G; Saldívar Toraya, S

1996-01-01

The knowledge of the right sample size let us to be sure if the published results in medical papers had a suitable design and a proper conclusion according to the statistics analysis. To estimate the sample size we must consider the type I error, type II error, variance, the size of the effect, significance and power of the test. To decide what kind of mathematics formula will be used, we must define what kind of study we have, it means if its a prevalence study, a means values one or a comparative one. In this paper we explain some basic topics of statistics and we describe four simple samples of estimation of sample size.

On two-sample McNemar test.

PubMed

Xiang, Jim X

2016-01-01

Measuring a change in the existence of disease symptoms before and after a treatment is examined for statistical significance by means of the McNemar test. When comparing two treatments, Feuer and Kessler (1989) proposed a two-sample McNemar test. In this article, we show that this test usually inflates the type I error in the hypothesis testing, and propose a new two-sample McNemar test that is superior in terms of preserving type I error. We also make the connection between the two-sample McNemar test and the test statistic for the equal residual effects in a 2 × 2 crossover design. The limitations of the two-sample McNemar test are also discussed.

Rank score and permutation testing alternatives for regression quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Richards, J.D.; Mielke, P.W.

2006-01-01

Performance of quantile rank score tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) were evaluated by simulation for models with p = 2 and 6 predictors, moderate collinearity among predictors, homogeneous and hetero-geneous errors, small to moderate samples (n = 20–300), and central to upper quantiles (0.50–0.99). Test statistics evaluated were the conventional quantile rank score T statistic distributed as χ2 random variable with q degrees of freedom (where q parameters are constrained by H 0:) and an F statistic with its sampling distribution approximated by permutation. The permutation F-test maintained better Type I errors than the T-test for homogeneous error models with smaller n and more extreme quantiles τ. An F distributional approximation of the F statistic provided some improvements in Type I errors over the T-test for models with > 2 parameters, smaller n, and more extreme quantiles but not as much improvement as the permutation approximation. Both rank score tests required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when heterogeneity under the alternative model increased to 5 standard deviations across the domain of X. A double permutation procedure was developed to provide valid Type I errors for the permutation F-test when null models were forced through the origin. Power was similar for conditions where both T- and F-tests maintained correct Type I errors but the F-test provided some power at smaller n and extreme quantiles when the T-test had no power because of excessively conservative Type I errors. When the double permutation scheme was required for the permutation F-test to maintain valid Type I errors, power was less than for the T-test with decreasing sample size and increasing quantiles. Confidence intervals on parameters and tolerance intervals for future predictions were constructed based on test inversion for an example application relating trout densities to stream channel width:depth.

Outlier Removal and the Relation with Reporting Errors and Quality of Psychological Research

PubMed Central

Bakker, Marjan; Wicherts, Jelte M.

2014-01-01

Background The removal of outliers to acquire a significant result is a questionable research practice that appears to be commonly used in psychology. In this study, we investigated whether the removal of outliers in psychology papers is related to weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect), a higher prevalence of reporting errors, and smaller sample sizes in these papers compared to papers in the same journals that did not report the exclusion of outliers from the analyses. Methods and Findings We retrieved a total of 2667 statistical results of null hypothesis significance tests from 153 articles in main psychology journals, and compared results from articles in which outliers were removed (N = 92) with results from articles that reported no exclusion of outliers (N = 61). We preregistered our hypotheses and methods and analyzed the data at the level of articles. Results show no significant difference between the two types of articles in median p value, sample sizes, or prevalence of all reporting errors, large reporting errors, and reporting errors that concerned the statistical significance. However, we did find a discrepancy between the reported degrees of freedom of t tests and the reported sample size in 41% of articles that did not report removal of any data values. This suggests common failure to report data exclusions (or missingness) in psychological articles. Conclusions We failed to find that the removal of outliers from the analysis in psychological articles was related to weaker evidence (against the null hypothesis of no effect), sample size, or the prevalence of errors. However, our control sample might be contaminated due to nondisclosure of excluded values in articles that did not report exclusion of outliers. Results therefore highlight the importance of more transparent reporting of statistical analyses. PMID:25072606

Increasing point-count duration increases standard error

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, W.P.; Twedt, D.J.; Hamel, P.B.; Ford, R.P.; Wiedenfeld, D.A.; Cooper, R.J.

1998-01-01

We examined data from point counts of varying duration in bottomland forests of west Tennessee and the Mississippi Alluvial Valley to determine if counting interval influenced sampling efficiency. Estimates of standard error increased as point count duration increased both for cumulative number of individuals and species in both locations. Although point counts appear to yield data with standard errors proportional to means, a square root transformation of the data may stabilize the variance. Using long (>10 min) point counts may reduce sample size and increase sampling error, both of which diminish statistical power and thereby the ability to detect meaningful changes in avian populations.

Evaluating concentration estimation errors in ELISA microarray experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, Don S.; White, Amanda M.; Varnum, Susan M.

Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) is a standard immunoassay to predict a protein concentration in a sample. Deploying ELISA in a microarray format permits simultaneous prediction of the concentrations of numerous proteins in a small sample. These predictions, however, are uncertain due to processing error and biological variability. Evaluating prediction error is critical to interpreting biological significance and improving the ELISA microarray process. Evaluating prediction error must be automated to realize a reliable high-throughput ELISA microarray system. Methods: In this paper, we present a statistical method based on propagation of error to evaluate prediction errors in the ELISA microarray process. Althoughmore » propagation of error is central to this method, it is effective only when comparable data are available. Therefore, we briefly discuss the roles of experimental design, data screening, normalization and statistical diagnostics when evaluating ELISA microarray prediction errors. We use an ELISA microarray investigation of breast cancer biomarkers to illustrate the evaluation of prediction errors. The illustration begins with a description of the design and resulting data, followed by a brief discussion of data screening and normalization. In our illustration, we fit a standard curve to the screened and normalized data, review the modeling diagnostics, and apply propagation of error.« less

Sequential Tests of Multiple Hypotheses Controlling Type I and II Familywise Error Rates

PubMed Central

Bartroff, Jay; Song, Jinlin

2014-01-01

This paper addresses the following general scenario: A scientist wishes to perform a battery of experiments, each generating a sequential stream of data, to investigate some phenomenon. The scientist would like to control the overall error rate in order to draw statistically-valid conclusions from each experiment, while being as efficient as possible. The between-stream data may differ in distribution and dimension but also may be highly correlated, even duplicated exactly in some cases. Treating each experiment as a hypothesis test and adopting the familywise error rate (FWER) metric, we give a procedure that sequentially tests each hypothesis while controlling both the type I and II FWERs regardless of the between-stream correlation, and only requires arbitrary sequential test statistics that control the error rates for a given stream in isolation. The proposed procedure, which we call the sequential Holm procedure because of its inspiration from Holm’s (1979) seminal fixed-sample procedure, shows simultaneous savings in expected sample size and less conservative error control relative to fixed sample, sequential Bonferroni, and other recently proposed sequential procedures in a simulation study. PMID:25092948

Statistical approaches to account for false-positive errors in environmental DNA samples.

PubMed

Lahoz-Monfort, José J; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Tingley, Reid

2016-05-01

Environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling is prone to both false-positive and false-negative errors. We review statistical methods to account for such errors in the analysis of eDNA data and use simulations to compare the performance of different modelling approaches. Our simulations illustrate that even low false-positive rates can produce biased estimates of occupancy and detectability. We further show that removing or classifying single PCR detections in an ad hoc manner under the suspicion that such records represent false positives, as sometimes advocated in the eDNA literature, also results in biased estimation of occupancy, detectability and false-positive rates. We advocate alternative approaches to account for false-positive errors that rely on prior information, or the collection of ancillary detection data at a subset of sites using a sampling method that is not prone to false-positive errors. We illustrate the advantages of these approaches over ad hoc classifications of detections and provide practical advice and code for fitting these models in maximum likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Given the severe bias induced by false-negative and false-positive errors, the methods presented here should be more routinely adopted in eDNA studies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The intercrater plains of Mercury and the Moon: Their nature, origin and role in terrestrial planet evolution. Measurement and errors of crater statistics. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leake, M. A.

1982-01-01

Planetary imagery techniques, errors in measurement or degradation assignment, and statistical formulas are presented with respect to cratering data. Base map photograph preparation, measurement of crater diameters and sampled area, and instruments used are discussed. Possible uncertainties, such as Sun angle, scale factors, degradation classification, and biases in crater recognition are discussed. The mathematical formulas used in crater statistics are presented.

A technique for evaluating the influence of spatial sampling on the determination of global mean total columnar ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tolson, R. H.

1981-01-01

A technique is described for providing a means of evaluating the influence of spatial sampling on the determination of global mean total columnar ozone. A finite number of coefficients in the expansion are determined, and the truncated part of the expansion is shown to contribute an error to the estimate, which depends strongly on the spatial sampling and is relatively insensitive to data noise. First and second order statistics are derived for each term in a spherical harmonic expansion which represents the ozone field, and the statistics are used to estimate systematic and random errors in the estimates of total ozone.

Analyzing thematic maps and mapping for accuracy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosenfield, G.H.

1982-01-01

Two problems which exist while attempting to test the accuracy of thematic maps and mapping are: (1) evaluating the accuracy of thematic content, and (2) evaluating the effects of the variables on thematic mapping. Statistical analysis techniques are applicable to both these problems and include techniques for sampling the data and determining their accuracy. In addition, techniques for hypothesis testing, or inferential statistics, are used when comparing the effects of variables. A comprehensive and valid accuracy test of a classification project, such as thematic mapping from remotely sensed data, includes the following components of statistical analysis: (1) sample design, including the sample distribution, sample size, size of the sample unit, and sampling procedure; and (2) accuracy estimation, including estimation of the variance and confidence limits. Careful consideration must be given to the minimum sample size necessary to validate the accuracy of a given. classification category. The results of an accuracy test are presented in a contingency table sometimes called a classification error matrix. Usually the rows represent the interpretation, and the columns represent the verification. The diagonal elements represent the correct classifications. The remaining elements of the rows represent errors by commission, and the remaining elements of the columns represent the errors of omission. For tests of hypothesis that compare variables, the general practice has been to use only the diagonal elements from several related classification error matrices. These data are arranged in the form of another contingency table. The columns of the table represent the different variables being compared, such as different scales of mapping. The rows represent the blocking characteristics, such as the various categories of classification. The values in the cells of the tables might be the counts of correct classification or the binomial proportions of these counts divided by either the row totals or the column totals from the original classification error matrices. In hypothesis testing, when the results of tests of multiple sample cases prove to be significant, some form of statistical test must be used to separate any results that differ significantly from the others. In the past, many analyses of the data in this error matrix were made by comparing the relative magnitudes of the percentage of correct classifications, for either individual categories, the entire map or both. More rigorous analyses have used data transformations and (or) two-way classification analysis of variance. A more sophisticated step of data analysis techniques would be to use the entire classification error matrices using the methods of discrete multivariate analysis or of multiviariate analysis of variance.

A fully redundant double difference algorithm for obtaining minimum variance estimates from GPS observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Melbourne, William G.

1986-01-01

In double differencing a regression system obtained from concurrent Global Positioning System (GPS) observation sequences, one either undersamples the system to avoid introducing colored measurement statistics, or one fully samples the system incurring the resulting non-diagonal covariance matrix for the differenced measurement errors. A suboptimal estimation result will be obtained in the undersampling case and will also be obtained in the fully sampled case unless the color noise statistics are taken into account. The latter approach requires a least squares weighting matrix derived from inversion of a non-diagonal covariance matrix for the differenced measurement errors instead of inversion of the customary diagonal one associated with white noise processes. Presented is the so-called fully redundant double differencing algorithm for generating a weighted double differenced regression system that yields equivalent estimation results, but features for certain cases a diagonal weighting matrix even though the differenced measurement error statistics are highly colored.

Type I error probabilities based on design-stage strategies with applications to noninferiority trials.

PubMed

Rothmann, Mark

2005-01-01

When testing the equality of means from two different populations, a t-test or large sample normal test tend to be performed. For these tests, when the sample size or design for the second sample is dependent on the results of the first sample, the type I error probability is altered for each specific possibility in the null hypothesis. We will examine the impact on the type I error probabilities for two confidence interval procedures and procedures using test statistics when the design for the second sample or experiment is dependent on the results from the first sample or experiment (or series of experiments). Ways for controlling a desired maximum type I error probability or a desired type I error rate will be discussed. Results are applied to the setting of noninferiority comparisons in active controlled trials where the use of a placebo is unethical.

Statistical properties of measures of association and the Kappa statistic for assessing the accuracy of remotely sensed data using double sampling

Treesearch

Mohammed A. Kalkhan; Robin M. Reich; Raymond L. Czaplewski

1996-01-01

A Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the statistical properties of measures of association and the Kappa statistic under double sampling with replacement. Three error matrices representing three levels of classification accuracy of Landsat TM Data consisting of four forest cover types in North Carolina. The overall accuracy of the five indices ranged from 0.35...

Adventures in Uncertainty: An Empirical Investigation of the Use of a Taylor's Series Approximation for the Assessment of Sampling Errors in Educational Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Mark

This study investigates the accuracy of the Woodruff-Causey technique for estimating sampling errors for complex statistics. The technique may be applied when data are collected by using multistage clustered samples. The technique was chosen for study because of its relevance to the correct use of multivariate analyses in educational survey…

Sampling for mercury at subnanogram per litre concentrations for load estimation in rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Colman, J.A.; Breault, R.F.

2000-01-01

Estimation of constituent loads in streams requires collection of stream samples that are representative of constituent concentrations, that is, composites of isokinetic multiple verticals collected along a stream transect. An all-Teflon isokinetic sampler (DH-81) cleaned in 75??C, 4 N HCl was tested using blank, split, and replicate samples to assess systematic and random sample contamination by mercury species. Mean mercury concentrations in field-equipment blanks were low: 0.135 ng??L-1 for total mercury (??Hg) and 0.0086 ng??L-1 for monomethyl mercury (MeHg). Mean square errors (MSE) for ??Hg and MeHg duplicate samples collected at eight sampling stations were not statistically different from MSE of samples split in the laboratory, which represent the analytical and splitting error. Low fieldblank concentrations and statistically equal duplicate- and split-sample MSE values indicate that no measurable contamination was occurring during sampling. Standard deviations associated with example mercury load estimations were four to five times larger, on a relative basis, than standard deviations calculated from duplicate samples, indicating that error of the load determination was primarily a function of the loading model used, not of sampling or analytical methods.

Multi-Reader ROC studies with Split-Plot Designs: A Comparison of Statistical Methods

PubMed Central

Obuchowski, Nancy A.; Gallas, Brandon D.; Hillis, Stephen L.

2012-01-01

Rationale and Objectives Multi-reader imaging trials often use a factorial design, where study patients undergo testing with all imaging modalities and readers interpret the results of all tests for all patients. A drawback of the design is the large number of interpretations required of each reader. Split-plot designs have been proposed as an alternative, in which one or a subset of readers interprets all images of a sample of patients, while other readers interpret the images of other samples of patients. In this paper we compare three methods of analysis for the split-plot design. Materials and Methods Three statistical methods are presented: Obuchowski-Rockette method modified for the split-plot design, a newly proposed marginal-mean ANOVA approach, and an extension of the three-sample U-statistic method. A simulation study using the Roe-Metz model was performed to compare the type I error rate, power and confidence interval coverage of the three test statistics. Results The type I error rates for all three methods are close to the nominal level but tend to be slightly conservative. The statistical power is nearly identical for the three methods. The coverage of 95% CIs fall close to the nominal coverage for small and large sample sizes. Conclusions The split-plot MRMC study design can be statistically efficient compared with the factorial design, reducing the number of interpretations required per reader. Three methods of analysis, shown to have nominal type I error rate, similar power, and nominal CI coverage, are available for this study design. PMID:23122570

Multi-reader ROC studies with split-plot designs: a comparison of statistical methods.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Gallas, Brandon D; Hillis, Stephen L

2012-12-01

Multireader imaging trials often use a factorial design, in which study patients undergo testing with all imaging modalities and readers interpret the results of all tests for all patients. A drawback of this design is the large number of interpretations required of each reader. Split-plot designs have been proposed as an alternative, in which one or a subset of readers interprets all images of a sample of patients, while other readers interpret the images of other samples of patients. In this paper, the authors compare three methods of analysis for the split-plot design. Three statistical methods are presented: the Obuchowski-Rockette method modified for the split-plot design, a newly proposed marginal-mean analysis-of-variance approach, and an extension of the three-sample U-statistic method. A simulation study using the Roe-Metz model was performed to compare the type I error rate, power, and confidence interval coverage of the three test statistics. The type I error rates for all three methods are close to the nominal level but tend to be slightly conservative. The statistical power is nearly identical for the three methods. The coverage of 95% confidence intervals falls close to the nominal coverage for small and large sample sizes. The split-plot multireader, multicase study design can be statistically efficient compared to the factorial design, reducing the number of interpretations required per reader. Three methods of analysis, shown to have nominal type I error rates, similar power, and nominal confidence interval coverage, are available for this study design. Copyright © 2012 AUR. All rights reserved.

How Big of a Problem is Analytic Error in Secondary Analyses of Survey Data?

PubMed

West, Brady T; Sakshaug, Joseph W; Aurelien, Guy Alain S

2016-01-01

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data.

How Big of a Problem is Analytic Error in Secondary Analyses of Survey Data?

PubMed Central

West, Brady T.; Sakshaug, Joseph W.; Aurelien, Guy Alain S.

2016-01-01

Secondary analyses of survey data collected from large probability samples of persons or establishments further scientific progress in many fields. The complex design features of these samples improve data collection efficiency, but also require analysts to account for these features when conducting analysis. Unfortunately, many secondary analysts from fields outside of statistics, biostatistics, and survey methodology do not have adequate training in this area, and as a result may apply incorrect statistical methods when analyzing these survey data sets. This in turn could lead to the publication of incorrect inferences based on the survey data that effectively negate the resources dedicated to these surveys. In this article, we build on the results of a preliminary meta-analysis of 100 peer-reviewed journal articles presenting analyses of data from a variety of national health surveys, which suggested that analytic errors may be extremely prevalent in these types of investigations. We first perform a meta-analysis of a stratified random sample of 145 additional research products analyzing survey data from the Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System (SESTAT), which describes features of the U.S. Science and Engineering workforce, and examine trends in the prevalence of analytic error across the decades used to stratify the sample. We once again find that analytic errors appear to be quite prevalent in these studies. Next, we present several example analyses of real SESTAT data, and demonstrate that a failure to perform these analyses correctly can result in substantially biased estimates with standard errors that do not adequately reflect complex sample design features. Collectively, the results of this investigation suggest that reviewers of this type of research need to pay much closer attention to the analytic methods employed by researchers attempting to publish or present secondary analyses of survey data. PMID:27355817

A rational approach to legacy data validation when transitioning between electronic health record systems.

PubMed

Pageler, Natalie M; Grazier G'Sell, Max Jacob; Chandler, Warren; Mailes, Emily; Yang, Christine; Longhurst, Christopher A

2016-09-01

The objective of this project was to use statistical techniques to determine the completeness and accuracy of data migrated during electronic health record conversion. Data validation during migration consists of mapped record testing and validation of a sample of the data for completeness and accuracy. We statistically determined a randomized sample size for each data type based on the desired confidence level and error limits. The only error identified in the post go-live period was a failure to migrate some clinical notes, which was unrelated to the validation process. No errors in the migrated data were found during the 12- month post-implementation period. Compared to the typical industry approach, we have demonstrated that a statistical approach to sampling size for data validation can ensure consistent confidence levels while maximizing efficiency of the validation process during a major electronic health record conversion. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Non-linear matter power spectrum covariance matrix errors and cosmological parameter uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blot, L.; Corasaniti, P. S.; Amendola, L.; Kitching, T. D.

2016-06-01

The covariance of the matter power spectrum is a key element of the analysis of galaxy clustering data. Independent realizations of observational measurements can be used to sample the covariance, nevertheless statistical sampling errors will propagate into the cosmological parameter inference potentially limiting the capabilities of the upcoming generation of galaxy surveys. The impact of these errors as function of the number of realizations has been previously evaluated for Gaussian distributed data. However, non-linearities in the late-time clustering of matter cause departures from Gaussian statistics. Here, we address the impact of non-Gaussian errors on the sample covariance and precision matrix errors using a large ensemble of N-body simulations. In the range of modes where finite volume effects are negligible (0.1 ≲ k [h Mpc-1] ≲ 1.2), we find deviations of the variance of the sample covariance with respect to Gaussian predictions above ˜10 per cent at k > 0.3 h Mpc-1. Over the entire range these reduce to about ˜5 per cent for the precision matrix. Finally, we perform a Fisher analysis to estimate the effect of covariance errors on the cosmological parameter constraints. In particular, assuming Euclid-like survey characteristics we find that a number of independent realizations larger than 5000 is necessary to reduce the contribution of sampling errors to the cosmological parameter uncertainties at subpercent level. We also show that restricting the analysis to large scales k ≲ 0.2 h Mpc-1 results in a considerable loss in constraining power, while using the linear covariance to include smaller scales leads to an underestimation of the errors on the cosmological parameters.

Examining Impulse-Variability Theory and the Speed-Accuracy Trade-Off in Children's Overarm Throwing Performance.

PubMed

Molina, Sergio L; Stodden, David F

2018-04-01

This study examined variability in throwing speed and spatial error to test the prediction of an inverted-U function (i.e., impulse-variability [IV] theory) and the speed-accuracy trade-off. Forty-five 9- to 11-year-old children were instructed to throw at a specified percentage of maximum speed (45%, 65%, 85%, and 100%) and hit the wall target. Results indicated no statistically significant differences in variable error across the target conditions (p = .72), failing to support the inverted-U hypothesis. Spatial accuracy results indicated no statistically significant differences with mean radial error (p = .18), centroid radial error (p = .13), and bivariate variable error (p = .08) also failing to support the speed-accuracy trade-off in overarm throwing. As neither throwing performance variability nor accuracy changed across percentages of maximum speed in this sample of children as well as in a previous adult sample, current policy and practices of practitioners may need to be reevaluated.

Applied statistics in ecology: common pitfalls and simple solutions

Treesearch

E. Ashley Steel; Maureen C. Kennedy; Patrick G. Cunningham; John S. Stanovick

2013-01-01

The most common statistical pitfalls in ecological research are those associated with data exploration, the logic of sampling and design, and the interpretation of statistical results. Although one can find published errors in calculations, the majority of statistical pitfalls result from incorrect logic or interpretation despite correct numerical calculations. There...

The Relation Between Inflation in Type-I and Type-II Error Rate and Population Divergence in Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Multi-Ethnic Populations.

PubMed

Derks, E M; Zwinderman, A H; Gamazon, E R

2017-05-01

Population divergence impacts the degree of population stratification in Genome Wide Association Studies. We aim to: (i) investigate type-I error rate as a function of population divergence (F ST ) in multi-ethnic (admixed) populations; (ii) evaluate the statistical power and effect size estimates; and (iii) investigate the impact of population stratification on the results of gene-based analyses. Quantitative phenotypes were simulated. Type-I error rate was investigated for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with varying levels of F ST between the ancestral European and African populations. Type-II error rate was investigated for a SNP characterized by a high value of F ST . In all tests, genomic MDS components were included to correct for population stratification. Type-I and type-II error rate was adequately controlled in a population that included two distinct ethnic populations but not in admixed samples. Statistical power was reduced in the admixed samples. Gene-based tests showed no residual inflation in type-I error rate.

A heteroskedastic error covariance matrix estimator using a first-order conditional autoregressive Markov simulation for deriving asympotical efficient estimates from ecological sampled Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitat covariates

PubMed Central

Jacob, Benjamin G; Griffith, Daniel A; Muturi, Ephantus J; Caamano, Erick X; Githure, John I; Novak, Robert J

2009-01-01

Background Autoregressive regression coefficients for Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitat models are usually assessed using global error techniques and are reported as error covariance matrices. A global statistic, however, will summarize error estimates from multiple habitat locations. This makes it difficult to identify where there are clusters of An. arabiensis aquatic habitats of acceptable prediction. It is therefore useful to conduct some form of spatial error analysis to detect clusters of An. arabiensis aquatic habitats based on uncertainty residuals from individual sampled habitats. In this research, a method of error estimation for spatial simulation models was demonstrated using autocorrelation indices and eigenfunction spatial filters to distinguish among the effects of parameter uncertainty on a stochastic simulation of ecological sampled Anopheles aquatic habitat covariates. A test for diagnostic checking error residuals in an An. arabiensis aquatic habitat model may enable intervention efforts targeting productive habitats clusters, based on larval/pupal productivity, by using the asymptotic distribution of parameter estimates from a residual autocovariance matrix. The models considered in this research extends a normal regression analysis previously considered in the literature. Methods Field and remote-sampled data were collected during July 2006 to December 2007 in Karima rice-village complex in Mwea, Kenya. SAS 9.1.4® was used to explore univariate statistics, correlations, distributions, and to generate global autocorrelation statistics from the ecological sampled datasets. A local autocorrelation index was also generated using spatial covariance parameters (i.e., Moran's Indices) in a SAS/GIS® database. The Moran's statistic was decomposed into orthogonal and uncorrelated synthetic map pattern components using a Poisson model with a gamma-distributed mean (i.e. negative binomial regression). The eigenfunction values from the spatial configuration matrices were then used to define expectations for prior distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. A set of posterior means were defined in WinBUGS 1.4.3®. After the model had converged, samples from the conditional distributions were used to summarize the posterior distribution of the parameters. Thereafter, a spatial residual trend analyses was used to evaluate variance uncertainty propagation in the model using an autocovariance error matrix. Results By specifying coefficient estimates in a Bayesian framework, the covariate number of tillers was found to be a significant predictor, positively associated with An. arabiensis aquatic habitats. The spatial filter models accounted for approximately 19% redundant locational information in the ecological sampled An. arabiensis aquatic habitat data. In the residual error estimation model there was significant positive autocorrelation (i.e., clustering of habitats in geographic space) based on log-transformed larval/pupal data and the sampled covariate depth of habitat. Conclusion An autocorrelation error covariance matrix and a spatial filter analyses can prioritize mosquito control strategies by providing a computationally attractive and feasible description of variance uncertainty estimates for correctly identifying clusters of prolific An. arabiensis aquatic habitats based on larval/pupal productivity. PMID:19772590

Phase error statistics of a phase-locked loop synchronized direct detection optical PPM communication system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Natarajan, Suresh; Gardner, C. S.

1987-01-01

Receiver timing synchronization of an optical Pulse-Position Modulation (PPM) communication system can be achieved using a phased-locked loop (PLL), provided the photodetector output is suitably processed. The magnitude of the PLL phase error is a good indicator of the timing error at the receiver decoder. The statistics of the phase error are investigated while varying several key system parameters such as PPM order, signal and background strengths, and PPL bandwidth. A practical optical communication system utilizing a laser diode transmitter and an avalanche photodiode in the receiver is described, and the sampled phase error data are presented. A linear regression analysis is applied to the data to obtain estimates of the relational constants involving the phase error variance and incident signal power.

A Hands-On Exercise Improves Understanding of the Standard Error of the Mean

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Robert S.

2006-01-01

One of the most difficult concepts for statistics students is the standard error of the mean. To improve understanding of this concept, 1 group of students used a hands-on procedure to sample from small populations representing either a true or false null hypothesis. The distribution of 120 sample means (n = 3) from each population had standard…

Statistical Reporting Errors and Collaboration on Statistical Analyses in Psychological Science.

PubMed

Veldkamp, Coosje L S; Nuijten, Michèle B; Dominguez-Alvarez, Linda; van Assen, Marcel A L M; Wicherts, Jelte M

2014-01-01

Statistical analysis is error prone. A best practice for researchers using statistics would therefore be to share data among co-authors, allowing double-checking of executed tasks just as co-pilots do in aviation. To document the extent to which this 'co-piloting' currently occurs in psychology, we surveyed the authors of 697 articles published in six top psychology journals and asked them whether they had collaborated on four aspects of analyzing data and reporting results, and whether the described data had been shared between the authors. We acquired responses for 49.6% of the articles and found that co-piloting on statistical analysis and reporting results is quite uncommon among psychologists, while data sharing among co-authors seems reasonably but not completely standard. We then used an automated procedure to study the prevalence of statistical reporting errors in the articles in our sample and examined the relationship between reporting errors and co-piloting. Overall, 63% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent with the reported test statistic and the accompanying degrees of freedom, and 20% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent to such a degree that it may have affected decisions about statistical significance. Overall, the probability that a given p-value was inconsistent was over 10%. Co-piloting was not found to be associated with reporting errors.

Statistical Reporting Errors and Collaboration on Statistical Analyses in Psychological Science

PubMed Central

Veldkamp, Coosje L. S.; Nuijten, Michèle B.; Dominguez-Alvarez, Linda; van Assen, Marcel A. L. M.; Wicherts, Jelte M.

2014-01-01

Statistical analysis is error prone. A best practice for researchers using statistics would therefore be to share data among co-authors, allowing double-checking of executed tasks just as co-pilots do in aviation. To document the extent to which this ‘co-piloting’ currently occurs in psychology, we surveyed the authors of 697 articles published in six top psychology journals and asked them whether they had collaborated on four aspects of analyzing data and reporting results, and whether the described data had been shared between the authors. We acquired responses for 49.6% of the articles and found that co-piloting on statistical analysis and reporting results is quite uncommon among psychologists, while data sharing among co-authors seems reasonably but not completely standard. We then used an automated procedure to study the prevalence of statistical reporting errors in the articles in our sample and examined the relationship between reporting errors and co-piloting. Overall, 63% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent with the reported test statistic and the accompanying degrees of freedom, and 20% of the articles contained at least one p-value that was inconsistent to such a degree that it may have affected decisions about statistical significance. Overall, the probability that a given p-value was inconsistent was over 10%. Co-piloting was not found to be associated with reporting errors. PMID:25493918

The Statistical Power of Planned Comparisons.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benton, Roberta L.

Basic principles underlying statistical power are examined; and issues pertaining to effect size, sample size, error variance, and significance level are highlighted via the use of specific hypothetical examples. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) and related methods remain popular, although other procedures sometimes have more statistical power against…

Statistical methods and errors in family medicine articles between 2010 and 2014-Suez Canal University, Egypt: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah

2016-01-01

With limited statistical knowledge of most physicians it is not uncommon to find statistical errors in research articles. To determine the statistical methods and to assess the statistical errors in family medicine (FM) research articles that were published between 2010 and 2014. This was a cross-sectional study. All 66 FM research articles that were published over 5 years by FM authors with affiliation to Suez Canal University were screened by the researcher between May and August 2015. Types and frequencies of statistical methods were reviewed in all 66 FM articles. All 60 articles with identified inferential statistics were examined for statistical errors and deficiencies. A comprehensive 58-item checklist based on statistical guidelines was used to evaluate the statistical quality of FM articles. Inferential methods were recorded in 62/66 (93.9%) of FM articles. Advanced analyses were used in 29/66 (43.9%). Contingency tables 38/66 (57.6%), regression (logistic, linear) 26/66 (39.4%), and t-test 17/66 (25.8%) were the most commonly used inferential tests. Within 60 FM articles with identified inferential statistics, no prior sample size 19/60 (31.7%), application of wrong statistical tests 17/60 (28.3%), incomplete documentation of statistics 59/60 (98.3%), reporting P value without test statistics 32/60 (53.3%), no reporting confidence interval with effect size measures 12/60 (20.0%), use of mean (standard deviation) to describe ordinal/nonnormal data 8/60 (13.3%), and errors related to interpretation were mainly for conclusions without support by the study data 5/60 (8.3%). Inferential statistics were used in the majority of FM articles. Data analysis and reporting statistics are areas for improvement in FM research articles.

Statistical methods and errors in family medicine articles between 2010 and 2014-Suez Canal University, Egypt: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Nour-Eldein, Hebatallah

2016-01-01

Background: With limited statistical knowledge of most physicians it is not uncommon to find statistical errors in research articles. Objectives: To determine the statistical methods and to assess the statistical errors in family medicine (FM) research articles that were published between 2010 and 2014. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study. All 66 FM research articles that were published over 5 years by FM authors with affiliation to Suez Canal University were screened by the researcher between May and August 2015. Types and frequencies of statistical methods were reviewed in all 66 FM articles. All 60 articles with identified inferential statistics were examined for statistical errors and deficiencies. A comprehensive 58-item checklist based on statistical guidelines was used to evaluate the statistical quality of FM articles. Results: Inferential methods were recorded in 62/66 (93.9%) of FM articles. Advanced analyses were used in 29/66 (43.9%). Contingency tables 38/66 (57.6%), regression (logistic, linear) 26/66 (39.4%), and t-test 17/66 (25.8%) were the most commonly used inferential tests. Within 60 FM articles with identified inferential statistics, no prior sample size 19/60 (31.7%), application of wrong statistical tests 17/60 (28.3%), incomplete documentation of statistics 59/60 (98.3%), reporting P value without test statistics 32/60 (53.3%), no reporting confidence interval with effect size measures 12/60 (20.0%), use of mean (standard deviation) to describe ordinal/nonnormal data 8/60 (13.3%), and errors related to interpretation were mainly for conclusions without support by the study data 5/60 (8.3%). Conclusion: Inferential statistics were used in the majority of FM articles. Data analysis and reporting statistics are areas for improvement in FM research articles. PMID:27453839

Micro-organism distribution sampling for bioassays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nelson, B. A.

1975-01-01

Purpose of sampling distribution is to characterize sample-to-sample variation so statistical tests may be applied, to estimate error due to sampling (confidence limits) and to evaluate observed differences between samples. Distribution could be used for bioassays taken in hospitals, breweries, food-processing plants, and pharmaceutical plants.

Automated Hypothesis Tests and Standard Errors for Nonstandard Problems with Description of Computer Package: A Draft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lord, Frederic M.; Stocking, Martha

A general Computer program is described that will compute asymptotic standard errors and carry out significance tests for an endless variety of (standard and) nonstandard large-sample statistical problems, without requiring the statistician to derive asymptotic standard error formulas. The program assumes that the observations have a multinormal…

Accounting for measurement error: a critical but often overlooked process.

PubMed

Harris, Edward F; Smith, Richard N

2009-12-01

Due to instrument imprecision and human inconsistencies, measurements are not free of error. Technical error of measurement (TEM) is the variability encountered between dimensions when the same specimens are measured at multiple sessions. A goal of a data collection regimen is to minimise TEM. The few studies that actually quantify TEM, regardless of discipline, report that it is substantial and can affect results and inferences. This paper reviews some statistical approaches for identifying and controlling TEM. Statistically, TEM is part of the residual ('unexplained') variance in a statistical test, so accounting for TEM, which requires repeated measurements, enhances the chances of finding a statistically significant difference if one exists. The aim of this paper was to review and discuss common statistical designs relating to types of error and statistical approaches to error accountability. This paper addresses issues of landmark location, validity, technical and systematic error, analysis of variance, scaled measures and correlation coefficients in order to guide the reader towards correct identification of true experimental differences. Researchers commonly infer characteristics about populations from comparatively restricted study samples. Most inferences are statistical and, aside from concerns about adequate accounting for known sources of variation with the research design, an important source of variability is measurement error. Variability in locating landmarks that define variables is obvious in odontometrics, cephalometrics and anthropometry, but the same concerns about measurement accuracy and precision extend to all disciplines. With increasing accessibility to computer-assisted methods of data collection, the ease of incorporating repeated measures into statistical designs has improved. Accounting for this technical source of variation increases the chance of finding biologically true differences when they exist.

Uncertainty Analysis of Seebeck Coefficient and Electrical Resistivity Characterization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

2014-01-01

In order to provide a complete description of a materials thermoelectric power factor, in addition to the measured nominal value, an uncertainty interval is required. The uncertainty may contain sources of measurement error including systematic bias error and precision error of a statistical nature. The work focuses specifically on the popular ZEM-3 (Ulvac Technologies) measurement system, but the methods apply to any measurement system. The analysis accounts for sources of systematic error including sample preparation tolerance, measurement probe placement, thermocouple cold-finger effect, and measurement parameters; in addition to including uncertainty of a statistical nature. Complete uncertainty analysis of a measurement system allows for more reliable comparison of measurement data between laboratories.

Performance of Bootstrapping Approaches To Model Test Statistics and Parameter Standard Error Estimation in Structural Equation Modeling.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nevitt, Jonathan; Hancock, Gregory R.

2001-01-01

Evaluated the bootstrap method under varying conditions of nonnormality, sample size, model specification, and number of bootstrap samples drawn from the resampling space. Results for the bootstrap suggest the resampling-based method may be conservative in its control over model rejections, thus having an impact on the statistical power associated…

Consistent Tolerance Bounds for Statistical Distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mezzacappa, M. A.

1983-01-01

Assumption that sample comes from population with particular distribution is made with confidence C if data lie between certain bounds. These "confidence bounds" depend on C and assumption about distribution of sampling errors around regression line. Graphical test criteria using tolerance bounds are applied in industry where statistical analysis influences product development and use. Applied to evaluate equipment life.

The Asymmetry Parameter and Branching Ratio of Sigma Plus Radiative Decay

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foucher, Maurice Emile

1992-05-01

We have measured the asymmetry parameter and branching ratio of themore » $$\\Sigma^+$$ radiative decay. This high statistics experiment (FNAL 761) was performed in the Proton Center charged hyperon beam at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory in Batavia, Illinois. We find for the asymmetry parameter -0.720 $$\\pm$$ 0.086 $$\\pm$$ 0.045 where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. This result is based on a sample of 34754 $$\\pm$$ 212 events. We find a preliminary value for the branching ratio $$Br ( \\Sigma^+ \\to p\\gamma )$$ $$/ Br ( \\Sigma^+ \\to p \\pi^0 )$$ = (2.14 $$\\pm$$ 0.07 $$\\pm$$ 0.11) x $$10^{-3}$$ where the first error is statistical and the second is systematic. This result is based on a sample of 31040 $$\\pm$$ 650 events. Both results are in agreement with previous low statistics measurements.« less

Image correlation and sampling study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Popp, D. J.; Mccormack, D. S.; Sedwick, J. L.

1972-01-01

The development of analytical approaches for solving image correlation and image sampling of multispectral data is discussed. Relevant multispectral image statistics which are applicable to image correlation and sampling are identified. The general image statistics include intensity mean, variance, amplitude histogram, power spectral density function, and autocorrelation function. The translation problem associated with digital image registration and the analytical means for comparing commonly used correlation techniques are considered. General expressions for determining the reconstruction error for specific image sampling strategies are developed.

Maximum type I error rate inflation from sample size reassessment when investigators are blind to treatment labels.

PubMed

Żebrowska, Magdalena; Posch, Martin; Magirr, Dominic

2016-05-30

Consider a parallel group trial for the comparison of an experimental treatment to a control, where the second-stage sample size may depend on the blinded primary endpoint data as well as on additional blinded data from a secondary endpoint. For the setting of normally distributed endpoints, we demonstrate that this may lead to an inflation of the type I error rate if the null hypothesis holds for the primary but not the secondary endpoint. We derive upper bounds for the inflation of the type I error rate, both for trials that employ random allocation and for those that use block randomization. We illustrate the worst-case sample size reassessment rule in a case study. For both randomization strategies, the maximum type I error rate increases with the effect size in the secondary endpoint and the correlation between endpoints. The maximum inflation increases with smaller block sizes if information on the block size is used in the reassessment rule. Based on our findings, we do not question the well-established use of blinded sample size reassessment methods with nuisance parameter estimates computed from the blinded interim data of the primary endpoint. However, we demonstrate that the type I error rate control of these methods relies on the application of specific, binding, pre-planned and fully algorithmic sample size reassessment rules and does not extend to general or unplanned sample size adjustments based on blinded data. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sample sizes needed for specified margins of relative error in the estimates of the repeatability and reproducibility standard deviations.

PubMed

McClure, Foster D; Lee, Jung K

2005-01-01

Sample size formulas are developed to estimate the repeatability and reproducibility standard deviations (Sr and S(R)) such that the actual error in (Sr and S(R)) relative to their respective true values, sigmar and sigmaR, are at predefined levels. The statistical consequences associated with AOAC INTERNATIONAL required sample size to validate an analytical method are discussed. In addition, formulas to estimate the uncertainties of (Sr and S(R)) were derived and are provided as supporting documentation. Formula for the Number of Replicates Required for a Specified Margin of Relative Error in the Estimate of the Repeatability Standard Deviation.

Accounting for response misclassification and covariate measurement error improves power and reduces bias in epidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Cheng, Dunlei; Branscum, Adam J; Stamey, James D

2010-07-01

To quantify the impact of ignoring misclassification of a response variable and measurement error in a covariate on statistical power, and to develop software for sample size and power analysis that accounts for these flaws in epidemiologic data. A Monte Carlo simulation-based procedure is developed to illustrate the differences in design requirements and inferences between analytic methods that properly account for misclassification and measurement error to those that do not in regression models for cross-sectional and cohort data. We found that failure to account for these flaws in epidemiologic data can lead to a substantial reduction in statistical power, over 25% in some cases. The proposed method substantially reduced bias by up to a ten-fold margin compared to naive estimates obtained by ignoring misclassification and mismeasurement. We recommend as routine practice that researchers account for errors in measurement of both response and covariate data when determining sample size, performing power calculations, or analyzing data from epidemiological studies. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Static Scene Statistical Non-Uniformity Correction

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-01

Error NUC Non-Uniformity Correction RMSE Root Mean Squared Error RSD Relative Standard Deviation S3NUC Static Scene Statistical Non-Uniformity...Deviation ( RSD ) which normalizes the standard deviation, σ, to the mean estimated value, µ using the equation RS D = σ µ × 100. The RSD plot of the gain...estimates is shown in Figure 4.1(b). The RSD plot shows that after a sample size of approximately 10, the different photocount values and the inclusion

Statistical Analyses of Scatterplots to Identify Important Factors in Large-Scale Simulations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Helton, J.C.

1999-04-01

The robustness of procedures for identifying patterns in scatterplots generated in Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses is investigated. These procedures are based on attempts to detect increasingly complex patterns in the scatterplots under consideration and involve the identification of (1) linear relationships with correlation coefficients, (2) monotonic relationships with rank correlation coefficients, (3) trends in central tendency as defined by means, medians and the Kruskal-Wallis statistic, (4) trends in variability as defined by variances and interquartile ranges, and (5) deviations from randomness as defined by the chi-square statistic. The following two topics related to the robustness of these procedures are consideredmore » for a sequence of example analyses with a large model for two-phase fluid flow: the presence of Type I and Type II errors, and the stability of results obtained with independent Latin hypercube samples. Observations from analysis include: (1) Type I errors are unavoidable, (2) Type II errors can occur when inappropriate analysis procedures are used, (3) physical explanations should always be sought for why statistical procedures identify variables as being important, and (4) the identification of important variables tends to be stable for independent Latin hypercube samples.« less

Inspection error and its adverse effects - A model with implications for practitioners

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Collins, R. D., Jr.; Case, K. E.; Bennett, G. K.

1978-01-01

Inspection error has clearly been shown to have adverse effects upon the results desired from a quality assurance sampling plan. These effects upon performance measures have been well documented from a statistical point of view. However, little work has been presented to convince the QC manager of the unfavorable cost consequences resulting from inspection error. This paper develops a very general, yet easily used, mathematical cost model. The basic format of the well-known Guthrie-Johns model is used. However, it is modified as required to assess the effects of attributes sampling errors of the first and second kind. The economic results, under different yet realistic conditions, will no doubt be of interest to QC practitioners who face similar problems daily. Sampling inspection plans are optimized to minimize economic losses due to inspection error. Unfortunately, any error at all results in some economic loss which cannot be compensated for by sampling plan design; however, improvements over plans which neglect the presence of inspection error are possible. Implications for human performance betterment programs are apparent, as are trade-offs between sampling plan modification and inspection and training improvements economics.

The Effect of Cluster Sampling Design in Survey Research on the Standard Error Statistic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wang, Lin; Fan, Xitao

Standard statistical methods are used to analyze data that is assumed to be collected using a simple random sampling scheme. These methods, however, tend to underestimate variance when the data is collected with a cluster design, which is often found in educational survey research. The purposes of this paper are to demonstrate how a cluster design…

Physical Validation of TRMM TMI and PR Monthly Rain Products Over Oklahoma

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, Brad L.

2004-01-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provides monthly rainfall estimates using data collected by the TRMM satellite. These estimates cover a substantial fraction of the earth's surface. The physical validation of TRMM estimates involves corroborating the accuracy of spaceborne estimates of areal rainfall by inferring errors and biases from ground-based rain estimates. The TRMM error budget consists of two major sources of error: retrieval and sampling. Sampling errors are intrinsic to the process of estimating monthly rainfall and occur because the satellite extrapolates monthly rainfall from a small subset of measurements collected only during satellite overpasses. Retrieval errors, on the other hand, are related to the process of collecting measurements while the satellite is overhead. One of the big challenges confronting the TRMM validation effort is how to best estimate these two main components of the TRMM error budget, which are not easily decoupled. This four-year study computed bulk sampling and retrieval errors for the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and the precipitation radar (PR) by applying a technique that sub-samples gauge data at TRMM overpass times. Gridded monthly rain estimates are then computed from the monthly bulk statistics of the collected samples, providing a sensor-dependent gauge rain estimate that is assumed to include a TRMM equivalent sampling error. The sub-sampled gauge rain estimates are then used in conjunction with the monthly satellite and gauge (without sub- sampling) estimates to decouple retrieval and sampling errors. The computed mean sampling errors for the TMI and PR were 5.9% and 7.796, respectively, in good agreement with theoretical predictions. The PR year-to-year retrieval biases exceeded corresponding TMI biases, but it was found that these differences were partially due to negative TMI biases during cold months and positive TMI biases during warm months.

Progressive statistics for studies in sports medicine and exercise science.

PubMed

Hopkins, William G; Marshall, Stephen W; Batterham, Alan M; Hanin, Juri

2009-01-01

Statistical guidelines and expert statements are now available to assist in the analysis and reporting of studies in some biomedical disciplines. We present here a more progressive resource for sample-based studies, meta-analyses, and case studies in sports medicine and exercise science. We offer forthright advice on the following controversial or novel issues: using precision of estimation for inferences about population effects in preference to null-hypothesis testing, which is inadequate for assessing clinical or practical importance; justifying sample size via acceptable precision or confidence for clinical decisions rather than via adequate power for statistical significance; showing SD rather than SEM, to better communicate the magnitude of differences in means and nonuniformity of error; avoiding purely nonparametric analyses, which cannot provide inferences about magnitude and are unnecessary; using regression statistics in validity studies, in preference to the impractical and biased limits of agreement; making greater use of qualitative methods to enrich sample-based quantitative projects; and seeking ethics approval for public access to the depersonalized raw data of a study, to address the need for more scrutiny of research and better meta-analyses. Advice on less contentious issues includes the following: using covariates in linear models to adjust for confounders, to account for individual differences, and to identify potential mechanisms of an effect; using log transformation to deal with nonuniformity of effects and error; identifying and deleting outliers; presenting descriptive, effect, and inferential statistics in appropriate formats; and contending with bias arising from problems with sampling, assignment, blinding, measurement error, and researchers' prejudices. This article should advance the field by stimulating debate, promoting innovative approaches, and serving as a useful checklist for authors, reviewers, and editors.

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Multiple category-lot quality assurance sampling: a new classification system with application to schistosomiasis control.

PubMed

Olives, Casey; Valadez, Joseph J; Brooker, Simon J; Pagano, Marcello

2012-01-01

Originally a binary classifier, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) has proven to be a useful tool for classification of the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni into multiple categories (≤10%, >10 and <50%, ≥50%), and semi-curtailed sampling has been shown to effectively reduce the number of observations needed to reach a decision. To date the statistical underpinnings for Multiple Category-LQAS (MC-LQAS) have not received full treatment. We explore the analytical properties of MC-LQAS, and validate its use for the classification of S. mansoni prevalence in multiple settings in East Africa. We outline MC-LQAS design principles and formulae for operating characteristic curves. In addition, we derive the average sample number for MC-LQAS when utilizing semi-curtailed sampling and introduce curtailed sampling in this setting. We also assess the performance of MC-LQAS designs with maximum sample sizes of n=15 and n=25 via a weighted kappa-statistic using S. mansoni data collected in 388 schools from four studies in East Africa. Overall performance of MC-LQAS classification was high (kappa-statistic of 0.87). In three of the studies, the kappa-statistic for a design with n=15 was greater than 0.75. In the fourth study, where these designs performed poorly (kappa-statistic less than 0.50), the majority of observations fell in regions where potential error is known to be high. Employment of semi-curtailed and curtailed sampling further reduced the sample size by as many as 0.5 and 3.5 observations per school, respectively, without increasing classification error. This work provides the needed analytics to understand the properties of MC-LQAS for assessing the prevalance of S. mansoni and shows that in most settings a sample size of 15 children provides a reliable classification of schools.

The effects of sampling frequency on the climate statistics of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Thomas J.; Gates, W. Lawrence; Arpe, Klaus

1992-12-01

The effects of sampling frequency on the first- and second-moment statistics of selected European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model variables are investigated in a simulation of "perpetual July" with a diurnal cycle included and with surface and atmospheric fields saved at hourly intervals. The shortest characteristic time scales (as determined by the e-folding time of lagged autocorrelation functions) are those of ground heat fluxes and temperatures, precipitation and runoff, convective processes, cloud properties, and atmospheric vertical motion, while the longest time scales are exhibited by soil temperature and moisture, surface pressure, and atmospheric specific humidity, temperature, and wind. The time scales of surface heat and momentum fluxes and of convective processes are substantially shorter over land than over oceans. An appropriate sampling frequency for each model variable is obtained by comparing the estimates of first- and second-moment statistics determined at intervals ranging from 2 to 24 hours with the "best" estimates obtained from hourly sampling. Relatively accurate estimation of first- and second-moment climate statistics (10% errors in means, 20% errors in variances) can be achieved by sampling a model variable at intervals that usually are longer than the bandwidth of its time series but that often are shorter than its characteristic time scale. For the surface variables, sampling at intervals that are nonintegral divisors of a 24-hour day yields relatively more accurate time-mean statistics because of a reduction in errors associated with aliasing of the diurnal cycle and higher-frequency harmonics. The superior estimates of first-moment statistics are accompanied by inferior estimates of the variance of the daily means due to the presence of systematic biases, but these probably can be avoided by defining a different measure of low-frequency variability. Estimates of the intradiurnal variance of accumulated precipitation and surface runoff also are strongly impacted by the length of the storage interval. In light of these results, several alternative strategies for storage of the EMWF model variables are recommended.

Enumerating Sparse Organisms in Ships’ Ballast Water: Why Counting to 10 Is Not So Easy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

To reduce ballast water-borne aquatic invasions worldwide, the International Maritime Organization and United States Coast Guard have each proposed discharge standards specifying maximum concentrations of living biota that may be released in ships’ ballast water (BW), but these regulations still lack guidance for standardized type approval and compliance testing of treatment systems. Verifying whether BW meets a discharge standard poses significant challenges. Properly treated BW will contain extremely sparse numbers of live organisms, and robust estimates of rare events require extensive sampling efforts. A balance of analytical rigor and practicality is essential to determine the volume of BW that can be reasonably sampled and processed, yet yield accurate live counts. We applied statistical modeling to a range of sample volumes, plankton concentrations, and regulatory scenarios (i.e., levels of type I and type II errors), and calculated the statistical power of each combination to detect noncompliant discharge concentrations. The model expressly addresses the roles of sampling error, BW volume, and burden of proof on the detection of noncompliant discharges in order to establish a rigorous lower limit of sampling volume. The potential effects of recovery errors (i.e., incomplete recovery and detection of live biota) in relation to sample volume are also discussed. PMID:21434685

Enumerating sparse organisms in ships' ballast water: why counting to 10 is not so easy.

PubMed

Miller, A Whitman; Frazier, Melanie; Smith, George E; Perry, Elgin S; Ruiz, Gregory M; Tamburri, Mario N

2011-04-15

To reduce ballast water-borne aquatic invasions worldwide, the International Maritime Organization and United States Coast Guard have each proposed discharge standards specifying maximum concentrations of living biota that may be released in ships' ballast water (BW), but these regulations still lack guidance for standardized type approval and compliance testing of treatment systems. Verifying whether BW meets a discharge standard poses significant challenges. Properly treated BW will contain extremely sparse numbers of live organisms, and robust estimates of rare events require extensive sampling efforts. A balance of analytical rigor and practicality is essential to determine the volume of BW that can be reasonably sampled and processed, yet yield accurate live counts. We applied statistical modeling to a range of sample volumes, plankton concentrations, and regulatory scenarios (i.e., levels of type I and type II errors), and calculated the statistical power of each combination to detect noncompliant discharge concentrations. The model expressly addresses the roles of sampling error, BW volume, and burden of proof on the detection of noncompliant discharges in order to establish a rigorous lower limit of sampling volume. The potential effects of recovery errors (i.e., incomplete recovery and detection of live biota) in relation to sample volume are also discussed.

The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

2011-05-01

The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Comparing a single case to a control group - Applying linear mixed effects models to repeated measures data.

PubMed

Huber, Stefan; Klein, Elise; Moeller, Korbinian; Willmes, Klaus

2015-10-01

In neuropsychological research, single-cases are often compared with a small control sample. Crawford and colleagues developed inferential methods (i.e., the modified t-test) for such a research design. In the present article, we suggest an extension of the methods of Crawford and colleagues employing linear mixed models (LMM). We first show that a t-test for the significance of a dummy coded predictor variable in a linear regression is equivalent to the modified t-test of Crawford and colleagues. As an extension to this idea, we then generalized the modified t-test to repeated measures data by using LMMs to compare the performance difference in two conditions observed in a single participant to that of a small control group. The performance of LMMs regarding Type I error rates and statistical power were tested based on Monte-Carlo simulations. We found that starting with about 15-20 participants in the control sample Type I error rates were close to the nominal Type I error rate using the Satterthwaite approximation for the degrees of freedom. Moreover, statistical power was acceptable. Therefore, we conclude that LMMs can be applied successfully to statistically evaluate performance differences between a single-case and a control sample. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of errors in quantitative determination of asbestos in rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baietto, Oliviero; Marini, Paola; Vitaliti, Martina

2016-04-01

The quantitative determination of the content of asbestos in rock matrices is a complex operation which is susceptible to important errors. The principal methodologies for the analysis are Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Phase Contrast Optical Microscopy (PCOM). Despite the PCOM resolution is inferior to that of SEM, PCOM analysis has several advantages, including more representativity of the analyzed sample, more effective recognition of chrysotile and a lower cost. The DIATI LAA internal methodology for the analysis in PCOM is based on a mild grinding of a rock sample, its subdivision in 5-6 grain size classes smaller than 2 mm and a subsequent microscopic analysis of a portion of each class. The PCOM is based on the optical properties of asbestos and of the liquids with note refractive index in which the particles in analysis are immersed. The error evaluation in the analysis of rock samples, contrary to the analysis of airborne filters, cannot be based on a statistical distribution. In fact for airborne filters a binomial distribution (Poisson), which theoretically defines the variation in the count of fibers resulting from the observation of analysis fields, chosen randomly on the filter, can be applied. The analysis in rock matrices instead cannot lean on any statistical distribution because the most important object of the analysis is the size of the of asbestiform fibers and bundles of fibers observed and the resulting relationship between the weights of the fibrous component compared to the one granular. The error evaluation generally provided by public and private institutions varies between 50 and 150 percent, but there are not, however, specific studies that discuss the origin of the error or that link it to the asbestos content. Our work aims to provide a reliable estimation of the error in relation to the applied methodologies and to the total content of asbestos, especially for the values close to the legal limits. The error assessments must be made through the repetition of the same analysis on the same sample to try to estimate the error on the representativeness of the sample and the error related to the sensitivity of the operator, in order to provide a sufficiently reliable uncertainty of the method. We used about 30 natural rock samples with different asbestos content, performing 3 analysis on each sample to obtain a trend sufficiently representative of the percentage. Furthermore we made on one chosen sample 10 repetition of the analysis to try to define more specifically the error of the methodology.

Assessing the statistical significance of the achieved classification error of classifiers constructed using serum peptide profiles, and a prescription for random sampling repeated studies for massive high-throughput genomic and proteomic studies.

PubMed

Lyons-Weiler, James; Pelikan, Richard; Zeh, Herbert J; Whitcomb, David C; Malehorn, David E; Bigbee, William L; Hauskrecht, Milos

2005-01-01

Peptide profiles generated using SELDI/MALDI time of flight mass spectrometry provide a promising source of patient-specific information with high potential impact on the early detection and classification of cancer and other diseases. The new profiling technology comes, however, with numerous challenges and concerns. Particularly important are concerns of reproducibility of classification results and their significance. In this work we describe a computational validation framework, called PACE (Permutation-Achieved Classification Error), that lets us assess, for a given classification model, the significance of the Achieved Classification Error (ACE) on the profile data. The framework compares the performance statistic of the classifier on true data samples and checks if these are consistent with the behavior of the classifier on the same data with randomly reassigned class labels. A statistically significant ACE increases our belief that a discriminative signal was found in the data. The advantage of PACE analysis is that it can be easily combined with any classification model and is relatively easy to interpret. PACE analysis does not protect researchers against confounding in the experimental design, or other sources of systematic or random error. We use PACE analysis to assess significance of classification results we have achieved on a number of published data sets. The results show that many of these datasets indeed possess a signal that leads to a statistically significant ACE.

Investigation of Error Patterns in Geographical Databases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dryer, David; Jacobs, Derya A.; Karayaz, Gamze; Gronbech, Chris; Jones, Denise R. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The objective of the research conducted in this project is to develop a methodology to investigate the accuracy of Airport Safety Modeling Data (ASMD) using statistical, visualization, and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques. Such a methodology can contribute to answering the following research questions: Over a representative sampling of ASMD databases, can statistical error analysis techniques be accurately learned and replicated by ANN modeling techniques? This representative ASMD sample should include numerous airports and a variety of terrain characterizations. Is it possible to identify and automate the recognition of patterns of error related to geographical features? Do such patterns of error relate to specific geographical features, such as elevation or terrain slope? Is it possible to combine the errors in small regions into an error prediction for a larger region? What are the data density reduction implications of this work? ASMD may be used as the source of terrain data for a synthetic visual system to be used in the cockpit of aircraft when visual reference to ground features is not possible during conditions of marginal weather or reduced visibility. In this research, United States Geologic Survey (USGS) digital elevation model (DEM) data has been selected as the benchmark. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNS) have been used and tested as alternate methods in place of the statistical methods in similar problems. They often perform better in pattern recognition, prediction and classification and categorization problems. Many studies show that when the data is complex and noisy, the accuracy of ANN models is generally higher than those of comparable traditional methods.

How Sample Size Affects a Sampling Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mulekar, Madhuri S.; Siegel, Murray H.

2009-01-01

If students are to understand inferential statistics successfully, they must have a profound understanding of the nature of the sampling distribution. Specifically, they must comprehend the determination of the expected value and standard error of a sampling distribution as well as the meaning of the central limit theorem. Many students in a high…

Judging Statistical Models of Individual Decision Making under Risk Using In- and Out-of-Sample Criteria

PubMed Central

Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Lusk, Jayson L.

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample. PMID:25029467

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

PubMed

Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

Sample size re-assessment leading to a raised sample size does not inflate type I error rate under mild conditions.

PubMed

Broberg, Per

2013-07-19

One major concern with adaptive designs, such as the sample size adjustable designs, has been the fear of inflating the type I error rate. In (Stat Med 23:1023-1038, 2004) it is however proven that when observations follow a normal distribution and the interim result show promise, meaning that the conditional power exceeds 50%, type I error rate is protected. This bound and the distributional assumptions may seem to impose undesirable restrictions on the use of these designs. In (Stat Med 30:3267-3284, 2011) the possibility of going below 50% is explored and a region that permits an increased sample size without inflation is defined in terms of the conditional power at the interim. A criterion which is implicit in (Stat Med 30:3267-3284, 2011) is derived by elementary methods and expressed in terms of the test statistic at the interim to simplify practical use. Mathematical and computational details concerning this criterion are exhibited. Under very general conditions the type I error rate is preserved under sample size adjustable schemes that permit a raise. The main result states that for normally distributed observations raising the sample size when the result looks promising, where the definition of promising depends on the amount of knowledge gathered so far, guarantees the protection of the type I error rate. Also, in the many situations where the test statistic approximately follows a normal law, the deviation from the main result remains negligible. This article provides details regarding the Weibull and binomial distributions and indicates how one may approach these distributions within the current setting. There is thus reason to consider such designs more often, since they offer a means of adjusting an important design feature at little or no cost in terms of error rate.

Heterogenic Solid Biofuel Sampling Methodology and Uncertainty Associated with Prompt Analysis

PubMed Central

Pazó, Jose A.; Granada, Enrique; Saavedra, Ángeles; Patiño, David; Collazo, Joaquín

2010-01-01

Accurate determination of the properties of biomass is of particular interest in studies on biomass combustion or cofiring. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodology for prompt analysis of heterogeneous solid fuels with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Special care must be taken with the sampling procedure to achieve an acceptable degree of error and low statistical uncertainty. A sampling and error determination methodology for prompt analysis is presented and validated. Two approaches for the propagation of errors are also given and some comparisons are made in order to determine which may be better in this context. Results show in general low, acceptable levels of uncertainty, demonstrating that the samples obtained in the process are representative of the overall fuel composition. PMID:20559506

Fine-scale landscape genetics of the American badger (Taxidea taxus): disentangling landscape effects and sampling artifacts in a poorly understood species

PubMed Central

Kierepka, E M; Latch, E K

2016-01-01

Landscape genetics is a powerful tool for conservation because it identifies landscape features that are important for maintaining genetic connectivity between populations within heterogeneous landscapes. However, using landscape genetics in poorly understood species presents a number of challenges, namely, limited life history information for the focal population and spatially biased sampling. Both obstacles can reduce power in statistics, particularly in individual-based studies. In this study, we genotyped 233 American badgers in Wisconsin at 12 microsatellite loci to identify alternative statistical approaches that can be applied to poorly understood species in an individual-based framework. Badgers are protected in Wisconsin owing to an overall lack in life history information, so our study utilized partial redundancy analysis (RDA) and spatially lagged regressions to quantify how three landscape factors (Wisconsin River, Ecoregions and land cover) impacted gene flow. We also performed simulations to quantify errors created by spatially biased sampling. Statistical analyses first found that geographic distance was an important influence on gene flow, mainly driven by fine-scale positive spatial autocorrelations. After controlling for geographic distance, both RDA and regressions found that Wisconsin River and Agriculture were correlated with genetic differentiation. However, only Agriculture had an acceptable type I error rate (3–5%) to be considered biologically relevant. Collectively, this study highlights the benefits of combining robust statistics and error assessment via simulations and provides a method for hypothesis testing in individual-based landscape genetics. PMID:26243136

Methods for flexible sample-size design in clinical trials: Likelihood, weighted, dual test, and promising zone approaches.

PubMed

Shih, Weichung Joe; Li, Gang; Wang, Yining

2016-03-01

Sample size plays a crucial role in clinical trials. Flexible sample-size designs, as part of the more general category of adaptive designs that utilize interim data, have been a popular topic in recent years. In this paper, we give a comparative review of four related methods for such a design. The likelihood method uses the likelihood ratio test with an adjusted critical value. The weighted method adjusts the test statistic with given weights rather than the critical value. The dual test method requires both the likelihood ratio statistic and the weighted statistic to be greater than the unadjusted critical value. The promising zone approach uses the likelihood ratio statistic with the unadjusted value and other constraints. All four methods preserve the type-I error rate. In this paper we explore their properties and compare their relationships and merits. We show that the sample size rules for the dual test are in conflict with the rules of the promising zone approach. We delineate what is necessary to specify in the study protocol to ensure the validity of the statistical procedure and what can be kept implicit in the protocol so that more flexibility can be attained for confirmatory phase III trials in meeting regulatory requirements. We also prove that under mild conditions, the likelihood ratio test still preserves the type-I error rate when the actual sample size is larger than the re-calculated one. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Outliers: A Potential Data Problem.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Douzenis, Cordelia; Rakow, Ernest A.

Outliers, extreme data values relative to others in a sample, may distort statistics that assume internal levels of measurement and normal distribution. The outlier may be a valid value or an error. Several procedures are available for identifying outliers, and each may be applied to errors of prediction from the regression lines for utility in a…

Trans-dimensional matched-field geoacoustic inversion with hierarchical error models and interacting Markov chains.

PubMed

Dettmer, Jan; Dosso, Stan E

2012-10-01

This paper develops a trans-dimensional approach to matched-field geoacoustic inversion, including interacting Markov chains to improve efficiency and an autoregressive model to account for correlated errors. The trans-dimensional approach and hierarchical seabed model allows inversion without assuming any particular parametrization by relaxing model specification to a range of plausible seabed models (e.g., in this case, the number of sediment layers is an unknown parameter). Data errors are addressed by sampling statistical error-distribution parameters, including correlated errors (covariance), by applying a hierarchical autoregressive error model. The well-known difficulty of low acceptance rates for trans-dimensional jumps is addressed with interacting Markov chains, resulting in a substantial increase in efficiency. The trans-dimensional seabed model and the hierarchical error model relax the degree of prior assumptions required in the inversion, resulting in substantially improved (more realistic) uncertainty estimates and a more automated algorithm. In particular, the approach gives seabed parameter uncertainty estimates that account for uncertainty due to prior model choice (layering and data error statistics). The approach is applied to data measured on a vertical array in the Mediterranean Sea.

[Statistical Process Control (SPC) can help prevent treatment errors without increasing costs in radiotherapy].

PubMed

Govindarajan, R; Llueguera, E; Melero, A; Molero, J; Soler, N; Rueda, C; Paradinas, C

2010-01-01

Statistical Process Control (SPC) was applied to monitor patient set-up in radiotherapy and, when the measured set-up error values indicated a loss of process stability, its root cause was identified and eliminated to prevent set-up errors. Set up errors were measured for medial-lateral (ml), cranial-caudal (cc) and anterior-posterior (ap) dimensions and then the upper control limits were calculated. Once the control limits were known and the range variability was acceptable, treatment set-up errors were monitored using sub-groups of 3 patients, three times each shift. These values were plotted on a control chart in real time. Control limit values showed that the existing variation was acceptable. Set-up errors, measured and plotted on a X chart, helped monitor the set-up process stability and, if and when the stability was lost, treatment was interrupted, the particular cause responsible for the non-random pattern was identified and corrective action was taken before proceeding with the treatment. SPC protocol focuses on controlling the variability due to assignable cause instead of focusing on patient-to-patient variability which normally does not exist. Compared to weekly sampling of set-up error in each and every patient, which may only ensure that just those sampled sessions were set-up correctly, the SPC method enables set-up error prevention in all treatment sessions for all patients and, at the same time, reduces the control costs. Copyright © 2009 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Ensemble Data Assimilation Without Ensembles: Methodology and Application to Ocean Data Assimilation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Kovach, Robin M.; Vernieres, Guillaume

2013-01-01

Two methods to estimate background error covariances for data assimilation are introduced. While both share properties with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), they differ from it in that they do not require the integration of multiple model trajectories. Instead, all the necessary covariance information is obtained from a single model integration. The first method is referred-to as SAFE (Space Adaptive Forecast error Estimation) because it estimates error covariances from the spatial distribution of model variables within a single state vector. It can thus be thought of as sampling an ensemble in space. The second method, named FAST (Flow Adaptive error Statistics from a Time series), constructs an ensemble sampled from a moving window along a model trajectory. The underlying assumption in these methods is that forecast errors in data assimilation are primarily phase errors in space and/or time.

Sample Errors Call Into Question Conclusions Regarding Same-Sex Married Parents: A Comment on "Family Structure and Child Health: Does the Sex Composition of Parents Matter?"

PubMed

Paul Sullins, D

2017-12-01

Because of classification errors reported by the National Center for Health Statistics, an estimated 42 % of the same-sex married partners in the sample for this study are misclassified different-sex married partners, thus calling into question findings regarding same-sex married parents. Including biological parentage as a control variable suppresses same-sex/different-sex differences, thus obscuring the data error. Parentage is not appropriate as a control because it correlates nearly perfectly (+.97, gamma) with the same-sex/different-sex distinction and is invariant for the category of joint biological parents.

Sensor Analytics: Radioactive gas Concentration Estimation and Error Propagation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, Dale N.; Fagan, Deborah K.; Suarez, Reynold

2007-04-15

This paper develops the mathematical statistics of a radioactive gas quantity measurement and associated error propagation. The probabilistic development is a different approach to deriving attenuation equations and offers easy extensions to more complex gas analysis components through simulation. The mathematical development assumes a sequential process of three components; I) the collection of an environmental sample, II) component gas extraction from the sample through the application of gas separation chemistry, and III) the estimation of radioactivity of component gases.

Estimating true human and animal host source contribution in quantitative microbial source tracking using the Monte Carlo method.

PubMed

Wang, Dan; Silkie, Sarah S; Nelson, Kara L; Wuertz, Stefan

2010-09-01

Cultivation- and library-independent, quantitative PCR-based methods have become the method of choice in microbial source tracking. However, these qPCR assays are not 100% specific and sensitive for the target sequence in their respective hosts' genome. The factors that can lead to false positive and false negative information in qPCR results are well defined. It is highly desirable to have a way of removing such false information to estimate the true concentration of host-specific genetic markers and help guide the interpretation of environmental monitoring studies. Here we propose a statistical model based on the Law of Total Probability to predict the true concentration of these markers. The distributions of the probabilities of obtaining false information are estimated from representative fecal samples of known origin. Measurement error is derived from the sample precision error of replicated qPCR reactions. Then, the Monte Carlo method is applied to sample from these distributions of probabilities and measurement error. The set of equations given by the Law of Total Probability allows one to calculate the distribution of true concentrations, from which their expected value, confidence interval and other statistical characteristics can be easily evaluated. The output distributions of predicted true concentrations can then be used as input to watershed-wide total maximum daily load determinations, quantitative microbial risk assessment and other environmental models. This model was validated by both statistical simulations and real world samples. It was able to correct the intrinsic false information associated with qPCR assays and output the distribution of true concentrations of Bacteroidales for each animal host group. Model performance was strongly affected by the precision error. It could perform reliably and precisely when the standard deviation of the precision error was small (≤ 0.1). Further improvement on the precision of sample processing and qPCR reaction would greatly improve the performance of the model. This methodology, built upon Bacteroidales assays, is readily transferable to any other microbial source indicator where a universal assay for fecal sources of that indicator exists. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in the cluster-cluster correlation function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, E. N.; Frenk, C. S.; Barrow, J. D.

1986-12-01

The bootstrap resampling technique is applied to estimate sampling errors and significance levels of the two-point correlation functions determined for a subset of the CfA redshift survey of galaxies and a redshift sample of 104 Abell clusters. The angular correlation function for a sample of 1664 Abell clusters is also calculated. The standard errors in xi(r) for the Abell data are found to be considerably larger than quoted 'Poisson errors'. The best estimate for the ratio of the correlation length of Abell clusters (richness class R greater than or equal to 1, distance class D less than or equal to 4) to that of CfA galaxies is 4.2 + 1.4 or - 1.0 (68 percentile error). The enhancement of cluster clustering over galaxy clustering is statistically significant in the presence of resampling errors. The uncertainties found do not include the effects of possible systematic biases in the galaxy and cluster catalogs and could be regarded as lower bounds on the true uncertainty range.

Statistical inference of seabed sound-speed structure in the Gulf of Oman Basin.

PubMed

Sagers, Jason D; Knobles, David P

2014-06-01

Addressed is the statistical inference of the sound-speed depth profile of a thick soft seabed from broadband sound propagation data recorded in the Gulf of Oman Basin in 1977. The acoustic data are in the form of time series signals recorded on a sparse vertical line array and generated by explosive sources deployed along a 280 km track. The acoustic data offer a unique opportunity to study a deep-water bottom-limited thickly sedimented environment because of the large number of time series measurements, very low seabed attenuation, and auxiliary measurements. A maximum entropy method is employed to obtain a conditional posterior probability distribution (PPD) for the sound-speed ratio and the near-surface sound-speed gradient. The multiple data samples allow for a determination of the average error constraint value required to uniquely specify the PPD for each data sample. Two complicating features of the statistical inference study are addressed: (1) the need to develop an error function that can both utilize the measured multipath arrival structure and mitigate the effects of data errors and (2) the effect of small bathymetric slopes on the structure of the bottom interacting arrivals.

Sample Size Determination for Rasch Model Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Draxler, Clemens

2010-01-01

This paper is concerned with supplementing statistical tests for the Rasch model so that additionally to the probability of the error of the first kind (Type I probability) the probability of the error of the second kind (Type II probability) can be controlled at a predetermined level by basing the test on the appropriate number of observations.…

Calculating the free energy of transfer of small solutes into a model lipid membrane: Comparison between metadynamics and umbrella sampling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bochicchio, Davide; Panizon, Emanuele; Ferrando, Riccardo

2015-10-14

We compare the performance of two well-established computational algorithms for the calculation of free-energy landscapes of biomolecular systems, umbrella sampling and metadynamics. We look at benchmark systems composed of polyethylene and polypropylene oligomers interacting with lipid (phosphatidylcholine) membranes, aiming at the calculation of the oligomer water-membrane free energy of transfer. We model our test systems at two different levels of description, united-atom and coarse-grained. We provide optimized parameters for the two methods at both resolutions. We devote special attention to the analysis of statistical errors in the two different methods and propose a general procedure for the error estimation inmore » metadynamics simulations. Metadynamics and umbrella sampling yield the same estimates for the water-membrane free energy profile, but metadynamics can be more efficient, providing lower statistical uncertainties within the same simulation time.« less

Errors in patient specimen collection: application of statistical process control.

PubMed

Dzik, Walter Sunny; Beckman, Neil; Selleng, Kathleen; Heddle, Nancy; Szczepiorkowski, Zbigniew; Wendel, Silvano; Murphy, Michael

2008-10-01

Errors in the collection and labeling of blood samples for pretransfusion testing increase the risk of transfusion-associated patient morbidity and mortality. Statistical process control (SPC) is a recognized method to monitor the performance of a critical process. An easy-to-use SPC method was tested to determine its feasibility as a tool for monitoring quality in transfusion medicine. SPC control charts were adapted to a spreadsheet presentation. Data tabulating the frequency of mislabeled and miscollected blood samples from 10 hospitals in five countries from 2004 to 2006 were used to demonstrate the method. Control charts were produced to monitor process stability. The participating hospitals found the SPC spreadsheet very suitable to monitor the performance of the sample labeling and collection and applied SPC charts to suit their specific needs. One hospital monitored subcategories of sample error in detail. A large hospital monitored the number of wrong-blood-in-tube (WBIT) events. Four smaller-sized facilities, each following the same policy for sample collection, combined their data on WBIT samples into a single control chart. One hospital used the control chart to monitor the effect of an educational intervention. A simple SPC method is described that can monitor the process of sample collection and labeling in any hospital. SPC could be applied to other critical steps in the transfusion processes as a tool for biovigilance and could be used to develop regional or national performance standards for pretransfusion sample collection. A link is provided to download the spreadsheet for free.

Performance of digital RGB reflectance color extraction for plaque lesion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, Hadzli; Taib, Mohd Nasir; Jailani, Rozita; Sulaiman, Saadiah; Baba, Roshidah

2005-01-01

Several clinical psoriasis lesion groups are been studied for digital RGB color features extraction. Previous works have used samples size that included all the outliers lying beyond the standard deviation factors from the peak histograms. This paper described the statistical performances of the RGB model with and without removing these outliers. Plaque lesion is experimented with other types of psoriasis. The statistical tests are compared with respect to three samples size; the original 90 samples, the first size reduction by removing outliers from 2 standard deviation distances (2SD) and the second size reduction by removing outliers from 1 standard deviation distance (1SD). Quantification of data images through the normal/direct and differential of the conventional reflectance method is considered. Results performances are concluded by observing the error plots with 95% confidence interval and findings of the inference T-tests applied. The statistical tests outcomes have shown that B component for conventional differential method can be used to distinctively classify plaque from the other psoriasis groups in consistent with the error plots finding with an improvement in p-value greater than 0.5.

Optimization of the Hartmann-Shack microlens array

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Oliveira, Otávio Gomes; de Lima Monteiro, Davies William

2011-04-01

In this work we propose to optimize the microlens-array geometry for a Hartmann-Shack wavefront sensor. The optimization makes possible that regular microlens arrays with a larger number of microlenses are replaced by arrays with fewer microlenses located at optimal sampling positions, with no increase in the reconstruction error. The goal is to propose a straightforward and widely accessible numerical method to calculate an optimized microlens array for a known aberration statistics. The optimization comprises the minimization of the wavefront reconstruction error and/or the number of necessary microlenses in the array. We numerically generate, sample and reconstruct the wavefront, and use a genetic algorithm to discover the optimal array geometry. Within an ophthalmological context, as a case study, we demonstrate that an array with only 10 suitably located microlenses can be used to produce reconstruction errors as small as those of a 36-microlens regular array. The same optimization procedure can be employed for any application where the wavefront statistics is known.

Does raising type 1 error rate improve power to detect interactions in linear regression models? A simulation study.

PubMed

Durand, Casey P

2013-01-01

Statistical interactions are a common component of data analysis across a broad range of scientific disciplines. However, the statistical power to detect interactions is often undesirably low. One solution is to elevate the Type 1 error rate so that important interactions are not missed in a low power situation. To date, no study has quantified the effects of this practice on power in a linear regression model. A Monte Carlo simulation study was performed. A continuous dependent variable was specified, along with three types of interactions: continuous variable by continuous variable; continuous by dichotomous; and dichotomous by dichotomous. For each of the three scenarios, the interaction effect sizes, sample sizes, and Type 1 error rate were varied, resulting in a total of 240 unique simulations. In general, power to detect the interaction effect was either so low or so high at α = 0.05 that raising the Type 1 error rate only served to increase the probability of including a spurious interaction in the model. A small number of scenarios were identified in which an elevated Type 1 error rate may be justified. Routinely elevating Type 1 error rate when testing interaction effects is not an advisable practice. Researchers are best served by positing interaction effects a priori and accounting for them when conducting sample size calculations.

Introducing 3D U-statistic method for separating anomaly from background in exploration geochemical data with associated software development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghannadpour, Seyyed Saeed; Hezarkhani, Ardeshir

2016-03-01

The U-statistic method is one of the most important structural methods to separate the anomaly from the background. It considers the location of samples and carries out the statistical analysis of the data without judging from a geochemical point of view and tries to separate subpopulations and determine anomalous areas. In the present study, to use U-statistic method in three-dimensional (3D) condition, U-statistic is applied on the grade of two ideal test examples, by considering sample Z values (elevation). So far, this is the first time that this method has been applied on a 3D condition. To evaluate the performance of 3D U-statistic method and in order to compare U-statistic with one non-structural method, the method of threshold assessment based on median and standard deviation (MSD method) is applied on the two example tests. Results show that the samples indicated by U-statistic method as anomalous are more regular and involve less dispersion than those indicated by the MSD method. So that, according to the location of anomalous samples, denser areas of them can be determined as promising zones. Moreover, results show that at a threshold of U = 0, the total error of misclassification for U-statistic method is much smaller than the total error of criteria of bar {x}+n× s. Finally, 3D model of two test examples for separating anomaly from background using 3D U-statistic method is provided. The source code for a software program, which was developed in the MATLAB programming language in order to perform the calculations of the 3D U-spatial statistic method, is additionally provided. This software is compatible with all the geochemical varieties and can be used in similar exploration projects.

What to use to express the variability of data: Standard deviation or standard error of mean?

PubMed

Barde, Mohini P; Barde, Prajakt J

2012-07-01

Statistics plays a vital role in biomedical research. It helps present data precisely and draws the meaningful conclusions. While presenting data, one should be aware of using adequate statistical measures. In biomedical journals, Standard Error of Mean (SEM) and Standard Deviation (SD) are used interchangeably to express the variability; though they measure different parameters. SEM quantifies uncertainty in estimate of the mean whereas SD indicates dispersion of the data from mean. As readers are generally interested in knowing the variability within sample, descriptive data should be precisely summarized with SD. Use of SEM should be limited to compute CI which measures the precision of population estimate. Journals can avoid such errors by requiring authors to adhere to their guidelines.

Accelerating Convergence in Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Solutes in Lipid Membranes by Conducting a Random Walk along the Bilayer Normal.

PubMed

Neale, Chris; Madill, Chris; Rauscher, Sarah; Pomès, Régis

2013-08-13

All molecular dynamics simulations are susceptible to sampling errors, which degrade the accuracy and precision of observed values. The statistical convergence of simulations containing atomistic lipid bilayers is limited by the slow relaxation of the lipid phase, which can exceed hundreds of nanoseconds. These long conformational autocorrelation times are exacerbated in the presence of charged solutes, which can induce significant distortions of the bilayer structure. Such long relaxation times represent hidden barriers that induce systematic sampling errors in simulations of solute insertion. To identify optimal methods for enhancing sampling efficiency, we quantitatively evaluate convergence rates using generalized ensemble sampling algorithms in calculations of the potential of mean force for the insertion of the ionic side chain analog of arginine in a lipid bilayer. Umbrella sampling (US) is used to restrain solute insertion depth along the bilayer normal, the order parameter commonly used in simulations of molecular solutes in lipid bilayers. When US simulations are modified to conduct random walks along the bilayer normal using a Hamiltonian exchange algorithm, systematic sampling errors are eliminated more rapidly and the rate of statistical convergence of the standard free energy of binding of the solute to the lipid bilayer is increased 3-fold. We compute the ratio of the replica flux transmitted across a defined region of the order parameter to the replica flux that entered that region in Hamiltonian exchange simulations. We show that this quantity, the transmission factor, identifies sampling barriers in degrees of freedom orthogonal to the order parameter. The transmission factor is used to estimate the depth-dependent conformational autocorrelation times of the simulation system, some of which exceed the simulation time, and thereby identify solute insertion depths that are prone to systematic sampling errors and estimate the lower bound of the amount of sampling that is required to resolve these sampling errors. Finally, we extend our simulations and verify that the conformational autocorrelation times estimated by the transmission factor accurately predict correlation times that exceed the simulation time scale-something that, to our knowledge, has never before been achieved.

Selected Oral Health Indicators in the United States, 2005-2008

MedlinePlus

... errors of the percentages were estimated using Taylor series linearization, to take into account the complex sampling design. The statistical significance of differences between estimates were ...

Multiple Category-Lot Quality Assurance Sampling: A New Classification System with Application to Schistosomiasis Control

PubMed Central

Olives, Casey; Valadez, Joseph J.; Brooker, Simon J.; Pagano, Marcello

2012-01-01

Background Originally a binary classifier, Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) has proven to be a useful tool for classification of the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni into multiple categories (≤10%, >10 and <50%, ≥50%), and semi-curtailed sampling has been shown to effectively reduce the number of observations needed to reach a decision. To date the statistical underpinnings for Multiple Category-LQAS (MC-LQAS) have not received full treatment. We explore the analytical properties of MC-LQAS, and validate its use for the classification of S. mansoni prevalence in multiple settings in East Africa. Methodology We outline MC-LQAS design principles and formulae for operating characteristic curves. In addition, we derive the average sample number for MC-LQAS when utilizing semi-curtailed sampling and introduce curtailed sampling in this setting. We also assess the performance of MC-LQAS designs with maximum sample sizes of n = 15 and n = 25 via a weighted kappa-statistic using S. mansoni data collected in 388 schools from four studies in East Africa. Principle Findings Overall performance of MC-LQAS classification was high (kappa-statistic of 0.87). In three of the studies, the kappa-statistic for a design with n = 15 was greater than 0.75. In the fourth study, where these designs performed poorly (kappa-statistic less than 0.50), the majority of observations fell in regions where potential error is known to be high. Employment of semi-curtailed and curtailed sampling further reduced the sample size by as many as 0.5 and 3.5 observations per school, respectively, without increasing classification error. Conclusion/Significance This work provides the needed analytics to understand the properties of MC-LQAS for assessing the prevalance of S. mansoni and shows that in most settings a sample size of 15 children provides a reliable classification of schools. PMID:22970333

77 FR 15376 - State Median Income Estimates for a Four-Person Household: Notice of the Federal Fiscal Year (FFY...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-03-15

... contact the Census Bureau's Social, Economic and Housing Statistics Division at (301) 763- 3243. Under the... the use of probability sampling to create the sample. For additional information about the accuracy of... consists of the error that arises from the use of probability sampling to create the sample. \\2\\ These...

A closer look at the effect of preliminary goodness-of-fit testing for normality for the one-sample t-test.

PubMed

Rochon, Justine; Kieser, Meinhard

2011-11-01

Student's one-sample t-test is a commonly used method when inference about the population mean is made. As advocated in textbooks and articles, the assumption of normality is often checked by a preliminary goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. In a paper recently published by Schucany and Ng it was shown that, for the uniform distribution, screening of samples by a pretest for normality leads to a more conservative conditional Type I error rate than application of the one-sample t-test without preliminary GOF test. In contrast, for the exponential distribution, the conditional level is even more elevated than the Type I error rate of the t-test without pretest. We examine the reasons behind these characteristics. In a simulation study, samples drawn from the exponential, lognormal, uniform, Student's t-distribution with 2 degrees of freedom (t(2) ) and the standard normal distribution that had passed normality screening, as well as the ingredients of the test statistics calculated from these samples, are investigated. For non-normal distributions, we found that preliminary testing for normality may change the distribution of means and standard deviations of the selected samples as well as the correlation between them (if the underlying distribution is non-symmetric), thus leading to altered distributions of the resulting test statistics. It is shown that for skewed distributions the excess in Type I error rate may be even more pronounced when testing one-sided hypotheses. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

Resampling-based Methods in Single and Multiple Testing for Equality of Covariance/Correlation Matrices

PubMed Central

Yang, Yang; DeGruttola, Victor

2016-01-01

Traditional resampling-based tests for homogeneity in covariance matrices across multiple groups resample residuals, that is, data centered by group means. These residuals do not share the same second moments when the null hypothesis is false, which makes them difficult to use in the setting of multiple testing. An alternative approach is to resample standardized residuals, data centered by group sample means and standardized by group sample covariance matrices. This approach, however, has been observed to inflate type I error when sample size is small or data are generated from heavy-tailed distributions. We propose to improve this approach by using robust estimation for the first and second moments. We discuss two statistics: the Bartlett statistic and a statistic based on eigen-decomposition of sample covariance matrices. Both statistics can be expressed in terms of standardized errors under the null hypothesis. These methods are extended to test homogeneity in correlation matrices. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that the robust resampling approach provides comparable or superior performance, relative to traditional approaches, for single testing and reasonable performance for multiple testing. The proposed methods are applied to data collected in an HIV vaccine trial to investigate possible determinants, including vaccine status, vaccine-induced immune response level and viral genotype, of unusual correlation pattern between HIV viral load and CD4 count in newly infected patients. PMID:22740584

Resampling-based methods in single and multiple testing for equality of covariance/correlation matrices.

PubMed

Yang, Yang; DeGruttola, Victor

2012-06-22

Traditional resampling-based tests for homogeneity in covariance matrices across multiple groups resample residuals, that is, data centered by group means. These residuals do not share the same second moments when the null hypothesis is false, which makes them difficult to use in the setting of multiple testing. An alternative approach is to resample standardized residuals, data centered by group sample means and standardized by group sample covariance matrices. This approach, however, has been observed to inflate type I error when sample size is small or data are generated from heavy-tailed distributions. We propose to improve this approach by using robust estimation for the first and second moments. We discuss two statistics: the Bartlett statistic and a statistic based on eigen-decomposition of sample covariance matrices. Both statistics can be expressed in terms of standardized errors under the null hypothesis. These methods are extended to test homogeneity in correlation matrices. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that the robust resampling approach provides comparable or superior performance, relative to traditional approaches, for single testing and reasonable performance for multiple testing. The proposed methods are applied to data collected in an HIV vaccine trial to investigate possible determinants, including vaccine status, vaccine-induced immune response level and viral genotype, of unusual correlation pattern between HIV viral load and CD4 count in newly infected patients.

Comparison of Efficiency of Jackknife and Variance Component Estimators of Standard Errors. Program Statistics Research. Technical Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Longford, Nicholas T.

Large scale surveys usually employ a complex sampling design and as a consequence, no standard methods for estimation of the standard errors associated with the estimates of population means are available. Resampling methods, such as jackknife or bootstrap, are often used, with reference to their properties of robustness and reduction of bias. A…

SU-E-T-769: T-Test Based Prior Error Estimate and Stopping Criterion for Monte Carlo Dose Calculation in Proton Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong, X; Gao, H; Schuemann, J

2015-06-15

Purpose: The Monte Carlo (MC) method is a gold standard for dose calculation in radiotherapy. However, it is not a priori clear how many particles need to be simulated to achieve a given dose accuracy. Prior error estimate and stopping criterion are not well established for MC. This work aims to fill this gap. Methods: Due to the statistical nature of MC, our approach is based on one-sample t-test. We design the prior error estimate method based on the t-test, and then use this t-test based error estimate for developing a simulation stopping criterion. The three major components are asmore » follows.First, the source particles are randomized in energy, space and angle, so that the dose deposition from a particle to the voxel is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.).Second, a sample under consideration in the t-test is the mean value of dose deposition to the voxel by sufficiently large number of source particles. Then according to central limit theorem, the sample as the mean value of i.i.d. variables is normally distributed with the expectation equal to the true deposited dose.Third, the t-test is performed with the null hypothesis that the difference between sample expectation (the same as true deposited dose) and on-the-fly calculated mean sample dose from MC is larger than a given error threshold, in addition to which users have the freedom to specify confidence probability and region of interest in the t-test based stopping criterion. Results: The method is validated for proton dose calculation. The difference between the MC Result based on the t-test prior error estimate and the statistical Result by repeating numerous MC simulations is within 1%. Conclusion: The t-test based prior error estimate and stopping criterion are developed for MC and validated for proton dose calculation. Xiang Hong and Hao Gao were partially supported by the NSFC (#11405105), the 973 Program (#2015CB856000) and the Shanghai Pujiang Talent Program (#14PJ1404500)« less

Analytic score distributions for a spatially continuous tridirectional Monte Carol transport problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Booth, T.E.

1996-01-01

The interpretation of the statistical error estimates produced by Monte Carlo transport codes is still somewhat of an art. Empirically, there are variance reduction techniques whose error estimates are almost always reliable, and there are variance reduction techniques whose error estimates are often unreliable. Unreliable error estimates usually result from inadequate large-score sampling from the score distribution`s tail. Statisticians believe that more accurate confidence interval statements are possible if the general nature of the score distribution can be characterized. Here, the analytic score distribution for the exponential transform applied to a simple, spatially continuous Monte Carlo transport problem is provided.more » Anisotropic scattering and implicit capture are included in the theory. In large part, the analytic score distributions that are derived provide the basis for the ten new statistical quality checks in MCNP.« less

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model. [Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koch, S. E.; Skillman, W. C.; Kocin, P. J.; Wetzel, P. J.; Brill, K. F.

1985-01-01

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Designing image segmentation studies: Statistical power, sample size and reference standard quality.

PubMed

Gibson, Eli; Hu, Yipeng; Huisman, Henkjan J; Barratt, Dean C

2017-12-01

Segmentation algorithms are typically evaluated by comparison to an accepted reference standard. The cost of generating accurate reference standards for medical image segmentation can be substantial. Since the study cost and the likelihood of detecting a clinically meaningful difference in accuracy both depend on the size and on the quality of the study reference standard, balancing these trade-offs supports the efficient use of research resources. In this work, we derive a statistical power calculation that enables researchers to estimate the appropriate sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in segmentation accuracy (i.e. the proportion of voxels matching the reference standard) between two algorithms. Furthermore, we derive a formula to relate reference standard errors to their effect on the sample sizes of studies using lower-quality (but potentially more affordable and practically available) reference standards. The accuracy of the derived sample size formula was estimated through Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating, with 95% confidence, a predicted statistical power within 4% of simulated values across a range of model parameters. This corresponds to sample size errors of less than 4 subjects and errors in the detectable accuracy difference less than 0.6%. The applicability of the formula to real-world data was assessed using bootstrap resampling simulations for pairs of algorithms from the PROMISE12 prostate MR segmentation challenge data set. The model predicted the simulated power for the majority of algorithm pairs within 4% for simulated experiments using a high-quality reference standard and within 6% for simulated experiments using a low-quality reference standard. A case study, also based on the PROMISE12 data, illustrates using the formulae to evaluate whether to use a lower-quality reference standard in a prostate segmentation study. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inventory and mapping of flood inundation using interactive digital image analysis techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rohde, Wayne G.; Nelson, Charles A.; Taranik, J.V.

1979-01-01

LANDSAT digital data and color infra-red photographs were used in a multiphase sampling scheme to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by a flood. The LANDSAT data were classified with a maximum likelihood algorithm. Stratification of the LANDSAT data, prior to classification, greatly reduced misclassification errors. The classification results were used to prepare a map overlay showing the areal extent of flooding. These data also provided statistics required to estimate sample size in a two phase sampling scheme, and provided quick, accurate estimates of areas flooded for the first phase. The measurements made in the second phase, based on ground data and photo-interpretation, were used with two phase sampling statistics to estimate the area of agricultural land affected by flooding These results show that LANDSAT digital data can be used to prepare map overlays showing the extent of flooding on agricultural land and, with two phase sampling procedures, can provide acreage estimates with sampling errors of about 5 percent. This procedure provides a technique for rapidly assessing the areal extent of flood conditions on agricultural land and would provide a basis for designing a sampling framework to estimate the impact of flooding on crop production.

Prevalence of refractive errors in the Slovak population calculated using the Gullstrand schematic eye model.

PubMed

Popov, I; Valašková, J; Štefaničková, J; Krásnik, V

2017-01-01

A substantial part of the population suffers from some kind of refractive errors. It is envisaged that their prevalence may change with the development of society. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence of refractive errors using calculations based on the Gullstrand schematic eye model. We used the Gullstrand schematic eye model to calculate refraction retrospectively. Refraction was presented as the need for glasses correction at a vertex distance of 12 mm. The necessary data was obtained using the optical biometer Lenstar LS900. Data which could not be obtained due to the limitations of the device was substituted by theoretical data from the Gullstrand schematic eye model. Only analyses from the right eyes were presented. The data was interpreted using descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation and t-test. The statistical tests were conducted at a level of significance of 5%. Our sample included 1663 patients (665 male, 998 female) within the age range of 19 to 96 years. Average age was 70.8 ± 9.53 years. Average refraction of the eye was 2.73 ± 2.13D (males 2.49 ± 2.34, females 2.90 ± 2.76). The mean absolute error from emmetropia was 3.01 ± 1.58 (males 2.83 ± 2.95, females 3.25 ± 3.35). 89.06% of the sample was hyperopic, 6.61% was myopic and 4.33% emmetropic. We did not find any correlation between refraction and age. Females were more hyperopic than males. We did not find any statistically significant hypermetopic shift of refraction with age. According to our estimation, the calculations of refractive errors using the Gullstrand schematic eye model showed a significant hypermetropic shift of more than +2D. Our results could be used in future for comparing the prevalence of refractive errors using same methods we used.Key words: refractive errors, refraction, Gullstrand schematic eye model, population, emmetropia.

Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. [for climatology studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

North, G. R.; Bell, T. L.; Cahalan, R. F.; Moeng, F. J.

1982-01-01

Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF's), eigenvectors of the spatial cross-covariance matrix of a meteorological field, are reviewed with special attention given to the necessary weighting factors for gridded data and the sampling errors incurred when too small a sample is available. The geographical shape of an EOF shows large intersample variability when its associated eigenvalue is 'close' to a neighboring one. A rule of thumb indicating when an EOF is likely to be subject to large sampling fluctuations is presented. An explicit example, based on the statistics of the 500 mb geopotential height field, displays large intersample variability in the EOF's for sample sizes of a few hundred independent realizations, a size seldom exceeded by meteorological data sets.

Error Distribution Evaluation of the Third Vanishing Point Based on Random Statistical Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.

2012-07-01

POS, integrated by GPS / INS (Inertial Navigation Systems), has allowed rapid and accurate determination of position and attitude of remote sensing equipment for MMS (Mobile Mapping Systems). However, not only does INS have system error, but also it is very expensive. Therefore, in this paper error distributions of vanishing points are studied and tested in order to substitute INS for MMS in some special land-based scene, such as ground façade where usually only two vanishing points can be detected. Thus, the traditional calibration approach based on three orthogonal vanishing points is being challenged. In this article, firstly, the line clusters, which parallel to each others in object space and correspond to the vanishing points, are detected based on RANSAC (Random Sample Consensus) and parallelism geometric constraint. Secondly, condition adjustment with parameters is utilized to estimate nonlinear error equations of two vanishing points (VX, VY). How to set initial weights for the adjustment solution of single image vanishing points is presented. Solving vanishing points and estimating their error distributions base on iteration method with variable weights, co-factor matrix and error ellipse theory. Thirdly, under the condition of known error ellipses of two vanishing points (VX, VY) and on the basis of the triangle geometric relationship of three vanishing points, the error distribution of the third vanishing point (VZ) is calculated and evaluated by random statistical simulation with ignoring camera distortion. Moreover, Monte Carlo methods utilized for random statistical estimation are presented. Finally, experimental results of vanishing points coordinate and their error distributions are shown and analyzed.

Local indicators of geocoding accuracy (LIGA): theory and application

PubMed Central

Jacquez, Geoffrey M; Rommel, Robert

2009-01-01

Background Although sources of positional error in geographic locations (e.g. geocoding error) used for describing and modeling spatial patterns are widely acknowledged, research on how such error impacts the statistical results has been limited. In this paper we explore techniques for quantifying the perturbability of spatial weights to different specifications of positional error. Results We find that a family of curves describes the relationship between perturbability and positional error, and use these curves to evaluate sensitivity of alternative spatial weight specifications to positional error both globally (when all locations are considered simultaneously) and locally (to identify those locations that would benefit most from increased geocoding accuracy). We evaluate the approach in simulation studies, and demonstrate it using a case-control study of bladder cancer in south-eastern Michigan. Conclusion Three results are significant. First, the shape of the probability distributions of positional error (e.g. circular, elliptical, cross) has little impact on the perturbability of spatial weights, which instead depends on the mean positional error. Second, our methodology allows researchers to evaluate the sensitivity of spatial statistics to positional accuracy for specific geographies. This has substantial practical implications since it makes possible routine sensitivity analysis of spatial statistics to positional error arising in geocoded street addresses, global positioning systems, LIDAR and other geographic data. Third, those locations with high perturbability (most sensitive to positional error) and high leverage (that contribute the most to the spatial weight being considered) will benefit the most from increased positional accuracy. These are rapidly identified using a new visualization tool we call the LIGA scatterplot. Herein lies a paradox for spatial analysis: For a given level of positional error increasing sample density to more accurately follow the underlying population distribution increases perturbability and introduces error into the spatial weights matrix. In some studies positional error may not impact the statistical results, and in others it might invalidate the results. We therefore must understand the relationships between positional accuracy and the perturbability of the spatial weights in order to have confidence in a study's results. PMID:19863795

Assessment of Mars Atmospheric Temperature Retrievals from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer Radiances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Matthew J.; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Weisenstein, Deborah; Uymin, Gennady; Moncet, Jean-Luc

2012-01-01

Motivated by the needs of Mars data assimilation. particularly quantification of measurement errors and generation of averaging kernels. we have evaluated atmospheric temperature retrievals from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) radiances. Multiple sets of retrievals have been considered in this study; (1) retrievals available from the Planetary Data System (PDS), (2) retrievals based on variants of the retrieval algorithm used to generate the PDS retrievals, and (3) retrievals produced using the Mars 1-Dimensional Retrieval (M1R) algorithm based on the Optimal Spectral Sampling (OSS ) forward model. The retrieved temperature profiles are compared to the MGS Radio Science (RS) temperature profiles. For the samples tested, the M1R temperature profiles can be made to agree within 2 K with the RS temperature profiles, but only after tuning the prior and error statistics. Use of a global prior that does not take into account the seasonal dependence leads errors of up 6 K. In polar samples. errors relative to the RS temperature profiles are even larger. In these samples, the PDS temperature profiles also exhibit a poor fit with RS temperatures. This fit is worse than reported in previous studies, indicating that the lack of fit is due to a bias correction to TES radiances implemented after 2004. To explain the differences between the PDS and Ml R temperatures, the algorithms are compared directly, with the OSS forward model inserted into the PDS algorithm. Factors such as the filtering parameter, the use of linear versus nonlinear constrained inversion, and the choice of the forward model, are found to contribute heavily to the differences in the temperature profiles retrieved in the polar regions, resulting in uncertainties of up to 6 K. Even outside the poles, changes in the a priori statistics result in different profile shapes which all fit the radiances within the specified error. The importance of the a priori statistics prevents reliable global retrievals based a single a priori and strongly implies that a robust science analysis must instead rely on retrievals employing localized a priori information, for example from an ensemble based data assimilation system such as the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF).

Iterative random vs. Kennard-Stone sampling for IR spectrum-based classification task using PLS2-DA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Loong Chuen; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2018-04-01

External testing (ET) is preferred over auto-prediction (AP) or k-fold-cross-validation in estimating more realistic predictive ability of a statistical model. With IR spectra, Kennard-stone (KS) sampling algorithm is often used to split the data into training and test sets, i.e. respectively for model construction and for model testing. On the other hand, iterative random sampling (IRS) has not been the favored choice though it is theoretically more likely to produce reliable estimation. The aim of this preliminary work is to compare performances of KS and IRS in sampling a representative training set from an attenuated total reflectance - Fourier transform infrared spectral dataset (of four varieties of blue gel pen inks) for PLS2-DA modeling. The `best' performance achievable from the dataset is estimated with AP on the full dataset (APF, error). Both IRS (n = 200) and KS were used to split the dataset in the ratio of 7:3. The classic decision rule (i.e. maximum value-based) is employed for new sample prediction via partial least squares - discriminant analysis (PLS2-DA). Error rate of each model was estimated repeatedly via: (a) AP on full data (APF, error); (b) AP on training set (APS, error); and (c) ET on the respective test set (ETS, error). A good PLS2-DA model is expected to produce APS, error and EVS, error that is similar to the APF, error. Bearing that in mind, the similarities between (a) APS, error vs. APF, error; (b) ETS, error vs. APF, error and; (c) APS, error vs. ETS, error were evaluated using correlation tests (i.e. Pearson and Spearman's rank test), using series of PLS2-DA models computed from KS-set and IRS-set, respectively. Overall, models constructed from IRS-set exhibits more similarities between the internal and external error rates than the respective KS-set, i.e. less risk of overfitting. In conclusion, IRS is more reliable than KS in sampling representative training set.

The statistical evaluation of duct tape end match as physical evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Ka Lok

Duct tapes are often submitted to crime laboratories as evidence associated with abductions, homicides, or construction of explosive devices. As a result, trace evidence examiners are often asked to analyze and compare commercial duct tapes so that they can establish possible evidentiary links. Duct tape end matches are believed to be the strongest association between exemplar and question samples because they are considered as evidence with unique individual characteristics. While end match analysis and comparison have long been undertaken by trace evidence examiners, there is a significant lack of scientific research for associating two or more segments of duct tapes. This study is designed to obtain statistical inferences on the uniqueness of duct tape tears. Three experiments were devised to compile the basis for a statistical assessment of the probability of duct tape end matches along with a proposed error rate. In one experiment, we conducted the equivalent of 10,000 end match examinations with an error rate of 0%. In the second experiment, we performed 2,704 end match examinations having 0% error rate. In the third experiment, using duct tape by an Elmendorf Tear tester, we conducted 576 end match examinations with an error rate of 0% and having all samples correctly associated. The results of this study indicate that end matches are distinguishable among a single roll of duct tape and between two different rolls of duct tape having very similar surface features and weave pattern.

New features added to EVALIDator: ratio estimation and county choropleth maps

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles; Mark H. Hansen

2012-01-01

The EVALIDator Web application, developed in 2007, provides estimates and sampling errors for many user selected forest statistics from the Forest Inventory and Analysis Database (FIADB). Among the statistics estimated are forest area, number of trees, biomass, volume, growth, removals, and mortality. A new release of EVALIDator, developed in 2012, has an option to...

Batch reporting of forest inventory statistics using the EVALIDator

Treesearch

Patrick D. Miles

2015-01-01

The EVALIDator Web application, developed in 2007, provides estimates and sampling errors of forest statistics (e.g., forest area, number of trees, tree biomass) from data stored in the Forest Inventory and Analysis database. In response to user demand, new features have been added to the EVALIDator. The most recent additions are 1) the ability to generate multiple...

Explanation of Two Anomalous Results in Statistical Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Fritz, Matthew S; Taylor, Aaron B; Mackinnon, David P

2012-01-01

Previous studies of different methods of testing mediation models have consistently found two anomalous results. The first result is elevated Type I error rates for the bias-corrected and accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap tests not found in nonresampling tests or in resampling tests that did not include a bias correction. This is of special concern as the bias-corrected bootstrap is often recommended and used due to its higher statistical power compared with other tests. The second result is statistical power reaching an asymptote far below 1.0 and in some conditions even declining slightly as the size of the relationship between X and M , a , increased. Two computer simulations were conducted to examine these findings in greater detail. Results from the first simulation found that the increased Type I error rates for the bias-corrected and accelerated bias-corrected bootstrap are a function of an interaction between the size of the individual paths making up the mediated effect and the sample size, such that elevated Type I error rates occur when the sample size is small and the effect size of the nonzero path is medium or larger. Results from the second simulation found that stagnation and decreases in statistical power as a function of the effect size of the a path occurred primarily when the path between M and Y , b , was small. Two empirical mediation examples are provided using data from a steroid prevention and health promotion program aimed at high school football players (Athletes Training and Learning to Avoid Steroids; Goldberg et al., 1996), one to illustrate a possible Type I error for the bias-corrected bootstrap test and a second to illustrate a loss in power related to the size of a . Implications of these findings are discussed.

Powerful Inference with the D-Statistic on Low-Coverage Whole-Genome Data

PubMed Central

Soraggi, Samuele; Wiuf, Carsten; Albrechtsen, Anders

2017-01-01

The detection of ancient gene flow between human populations is an important issue in population genetics. A common tool for detecting ancient admixture events is the D-statistic. The D-statistic is based on the hypothesis of a genetic relationship that involves four populations, whose correctness is assessed by evaluating specific coincidences of alleles between the groups. When working with high-throughput sequencing data, calling genotypes accurately is not always possible; therefore, the D-statistic currently samples a single base from the reads of one individual per population. This implies ignoring much of the information in the data, an issue especially striking in the case of ancient genomes. We provide a significant improvement to overcome the problems of the D-statistic by considering all reads from multiple individuals in each population. We also apply type-specific error correction to combat the problems of sequencing errors, and show a way to correct for introgression from an external population that is not part of the supposed genetic relationship, and how this leads to an estimate of the admixture rate. We prove that the D-statistic is approximated by a standard normal distribution. Furthermore, we show that our method outperforms the traditional D-statistic in detecting admixtures. The power gain is most pronounced for low and medium sequencing depth (1–10×), and performances are as good as with perfectly called genotypes at a sequencing depth of 2×. We show the reliability of error correction in scenarios with simulated errors and ancient data, and correct for introgression in known scenarios to estimate the admixture rates. PMID:29196497

Estimating and comparing microbial diversity in the presence of sequencing errors

PubMed Central

Chiu, Chun-Huo

2016-01-01

Estimating and comparing microbial diversity are statistically challenging due to limited sampling and possible sequencing errors for low-frequency counts, producing spurious singletons. The inflated singleton count seriously affects statistical analysis and inferences about microbial diversity. Previous statistical approaches to tackle the sequencing errors generally require different parametric assumptions about the sampling model or about the functional form of frequency counts. Different parametric assumptions may lead to drastically different diversity estimates. We focus on nonparametric methods which are universally valid for all parametric assumptions and can be used to compare diversity across communities. We develop here a nonparametric estimator of the true singleton count to replace the spurious singleton count in all methods/approaches. Our estimator of the true singleton count is in terms of the frequency counts of doubletons, tripletons and quadrupletons, provided these three frequency counts are reliable. To quantify microbial alpha diversity for an individual community, we adopt the measure of Hill numbers (effective number of taxa) under a nonparametric framework. Hill numbers, parameterized by an order q that determines the measures’ emphasis on rare or common species, include taxa richness (q = 0), Shannon diversity (q = 1, the exponential of Shannon entropy), and Simpson diversity (q = 2, the inverse of Simpson index). A diversity profile which depicts the Hill number as a function of order q conveys all information contained in a taxa abundance distribution. Based on the estimated singleton count and the original non-singleton frequency counts, two statistical approaches (non-asymptotic and asymptotic) are developed to compare microbial diversity for multiple communities. (1) A non-asymptotic approach refers to the comparison of estimated diversities of standardized samples with a common finite sample size or sample completeness. This approach aims to compare diversity estimates for equally-large or equally-complete samples; it is based on the seamless rarefaction and extrapolation sampling curves of Hill numbers, specifically for q = 0, 1 and 2. (2) An asymptotic approach refers to the comparison of the estimated asymptotic diversity profiles. That is, this approach compares the estimated profiles for complete samples or samples whose size tends to be sufficiently large. It is based on statistical estimation of the true Hill number of any order q ≥ 0. In the two approaches, replacing the spurious singleton count by our estimated count, we can greatly remove the positive biases associated with diversity estimates due to spurious singletons and also make fair comparisons across microbial communities, as illustrated in our simulation results and in applying our method to analyze sequencing data from viral metagenomes. PMID:26855872

[Errors in laboratory daily practice].

PubMed

Larrose, C; Le Carrer, D

2007-01-01

Legislation set by GBEA (Guide de bonne exécution des analyses) requires that, before performing analysis, the laboratory directors have to check both the nature of the samples and the patients identity. The data processing of requisition forms, which identifies key errors, was established in 2000 and in 2002 by the specialized biochemistry laboratory, also with the contribution of the reception centre for biological samples. The laboratories follow a strict criteria of defining acceptability as a starting point for the reception to then check requisition forms and biological samples. All errors are logged into the laboratory database and analysis report are sent to the care unit specifying the problems and the consequences they have on the analysis. The data is then assessed by the laboratory directors to produce monthly or annual statistical reports. This indicates the number of errors, which are then indexed to patient files to reveal the specific problem areas, therefore allowing the laboratory directors to teach the nurses and enable corrective action.

Tests of Independence in Contingency Tables with Small Samples: A Comparison of Statistical Power.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parshall, Cynthia G.; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.

1996-01-01

Power and Type I error rates were estimated for contingency tables with small sample sizes for the following four types of tests: (1) Pearson's chi-square; (2) chi-square with Yates's continuity correction; (3) the likelihood ratio test; and (4) Fisher's Exact Test. Various marginal distributions, sample sizes, and effect sizes were examined. (SLD)

Development of uncertainty-based work injury model using Bayesian structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Chatterjee, Snehamoy

2014-01-01

This paper proposed a Bayesian method-based structural equation model (SEM) of miners' work injury for an underground coal mine in India. The environmental and behavioural variables for work injury were identified and causal relationships were developed. For Bayesian modelling, prior distributions of SEM parameters are necessary to develop the model. In this paper, two approaches were adopted to obtain prior distribution for factor loading parameters and structural parameters of SEM. In the first approach, the prior distributions were considered as a fixed distribution function with specific parameter values, whereas, in the second approach, prior distributions of the parameters were generated from experts' opinions. The posterior distributions of these parameters were obtained by applying Bayesian rule. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling in the form Gibbs sampling was applied for sampling from the posterior distribution. The results revealed that all coefficients of structural and measurement model parameters are statistically significant in experts' opinion-based priors, whereas, two coefficients are not statistically significant when fixed prior-based distributions are applied. The error statistics reveals that Bayesian structural model provides reasonably good fit of work injury with high coefficient of determination (0.91) and less mean squared error as compared to traditional SEM.

Improving qPCR telomere length assays: Controlling for well position effects increases statistical power.

PubMed

Eisenberg, Dan T A; Kuzawa, Christopher W; Hayes, M Geoffrey

2015-01-01

Telomere length (TL) is commonly measured using quantitative PCR (qPCR). Although, easier than the southern blot of terminal restriction fragments (TRF) TL measurement method, one drawback of qPCR is that it introduces greater measurement error and thus reduces the statistical power of analyses. To address a potential source of measurement error, we consider the effect of well position on qPCR TL measurements. qPCR TL data from 3,638 people run on a Bio-Rad iCycler iQ are reanalyzed here. To evaluate measurement validity, correspondence with TRF, age, and between mother and offspring are examined. First, we present evidence for systematic variation in qPCR TL measurements in relation to thermocycler well position. Controlling for these well-position effects consistently improves measurement validity and yields estimated improvements in statistical power equivalent to increasing sample sizes by 16%. We additionally evaluated the linearity of the relationships between telomere and single copy gene control amplicons and between qPCR and TRF measures. We find that, unlike some previous reports, our data exhibit linear relationships. We introduce the standard error in percent, a superior method for quantifying measurement error as compared to the commonly used coefficient of variation. Using this measure, we find that excluding samples with high measurement error does not improve measurement validity in our study. Future studies using block-based thermocyclers should consider well position effects. Since additional information can be gleaned from well position corrections, rerunning analyses of previous results with well position correction could serve as an independent test of the validity of these results. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think

PubMed Central

Westfall, Jacob; Yarkoni, Tal

2016-01-01

Social scientists often seek to demonstrate that a construct has incremental validity over and above other related constructs. However, these claims are typically supported by measurement-level models that fail to consider the effects of measurement (un)reliability. We use intuitive examples, Monte Carlo simulations, and a novel analytical framework to demonstrate that common strategies for establishing incremental construct validity using multiple regression analysis exhibit extremely high Type I error rates under parameter regimes common in many psychological domains. Counterintuitively, we find that error rates are highest—in some cases approaching 100%—when sample sizes are large and reliability is moderate. Our findings suggest that a potentially large proportion of incremental validity claims made in the literature are spurious. We present a web application (http://jakewestfall.org/ivy/) that readers can use to explore the statistical properties of these and other incremental validity arguments. We conclude by reviewing SEM-based statistical approaches that appropriately control the Type I error rate when attempting to establish incremental validity. PMID:27031707

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

A basic introduction to statistics for the orthopaedic surgeon.

PubMed

Bertrand, Catherine; Van Riet, Roger; Verstreken, Frederik; Michielsen, Jef

2012-02-01

Orthopaedic surgeons should review the orthopaedic literature in order to keep pace with the latest insights and practices. A good understanding of basic statistical principles is of crucial importance to the ability to read articles critically, to interpret results and to arrive at correct conclusions. This paper explains some of the key concepts in statistics, including hypothesis testing, Type I and Type II errors, testing of normality, sample size and p values.

Testing the non-unity of rate ratio under inverse sampling.

PubMed

Tang, Man-Lai; Liao, Yi Jie; Ng, Hong Keung Tony; Chan, Ping Shing

2007-08-01

Inverse sampling is considered to be a more appropriate sampling scheme than the usual binomial sampling scheme when subjects arrive sequentially, when the underlying response of interest is acute, and when maximum likelihood estimators of some epidemiologic indices are undefined. In this article, we study various statistics for testing non-unity rate ratios in case-control studies under inverse sampling. These include the Wald, unconditional score, likelihood ratio and conditional score statistics. Three methods (the asymptotic, conditional exact, and Mid-P methods) are adopted for P-value calculation. We evaluate the performance of different combinations of test statistics and P-value calculation methods in terms of their empirical sizes and powers via Monte Carlo simulation. In general, asymptotic score and conditional score tests are preferable for their actual type I error rates are well controlled around the pre-chosen nominal level, and their powers are comparatively the largest. The exact version of Wald test is recommended if one wants to control the actual type I error rate at or below the pre-chosen nominal level. If larger power is expected and fluctuation of sizes around the pre-chosen nominal level are allowed, then the Mid-P version of Wald test is a desirable alternative. We illustrate the methodologies with a real example from a heart disease study. (c) 2007 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim

Power analysis to detect treatment effect in longitudinal studies with heterogeneous errors and incomplete data.

PubMed

Vallejo, Guillermo; Ato, Manuel; Fernández García, Paula; Livacic Rojas, Pablo E; Tuero Herrero, Ellián

2016-08-01

 S. Usami (2014) describes a method to realistically determine sample size in longitudinal research using a multilevel model. The present research extends the aforementioned work to situations where it is likely that the assumption of homogeneity of the errors across groups is not met and the error term does not follow a scaled identity covariance structure.   For this purpose, we followed a procedure based on transforming the variance components of the linear growth model and the parameter related to the treatment effect into specific and easily understandable indices. At the same time, we provide the appropriate statistical machinery for researchers to use when data loss is unavoidable, and changes in the expected value of the observed responses are not linear.   The empirical powers based on unknown variance components were virtually the same as the theoretical powers derived from the use of statistically processed indexes.   The main conclusion of the study is the accuracy of the proposed method to calculate sample size in the described situations with the stipulated power criteria.

Verification of Satellite Rainfall Estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission over Ground Validation Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, B. L.; Wolff, D. B.; Silberstein, D. S.; Marks, D. M.; Pippitt, J. L.

2007-12-01

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's (TRMM) Ground Validation (GV) Program was originally established with the principal long-term goal of determining the random errors and systematic biases stemming from the application of the TRMM rainfall algorithms. The GV Program has been structured around two validation strategies: 1) determining the quantitative accuracy of the integrated monthly rainfall products at GV regional sites over large areas of about 500 km2 using integrated ground measurements and 2) evaluating the instantaneous satellite and GV rain rate statistics at spatio-temporal scales compatible with the satellite sensor resolution (Simpson et al. 1988, Thiele 1988). The GV Program has continued to evolve since the launch of the TRMM satellite on November 27, 1997. This presentation will discuss current GV methods of validating TRMM operational rain products in conjunction with ongoing research. The challenge facing TRMM GV has been how to best utilize rain information from the GV system to infer the random and systematic error characteristics of the satellite rain estimates. A fundamental problem of validating space-borne rain estimates is that the true mean areal rainfall is an ideal, scale-dependent parameter that cannot be directly measured. Empirical validation uses ground-based rain estimates to determine the error characteristics of the satellite-inferred rain estimates, but ground estimates also incur measurement errors and contribute to the error covariance. Furthermore, sampling errors, associated with the discrete, discontinuous temporal sampling by the rain sensors aboard the TRMM satellite, become statistically entangled in the monthly estimates. Sampling errors complicate the task of linking biases in the rain retrievals to the physics of the satellite algorithms. The TRMM Satellite Validation Office (TSVO) has made key progress towards effective satellite validation. For disentangling the sampling and retrieval errors, TSVO has developed and applied a methodology that statistically separates the two error sources. Using TRMM monthly estimates and high-resolution radar and gauge data, this method has been used to estimate sampling and retrieval error budgets over GV sites. More recently, a multi- year data set of instantaneous rain rates from the TRMM microwave imager (TMI), the precipitation radar (PR), and the combined algorithm was spatio-temporally matched and inter-compared to GV radar rain rates collected during satellite overpasses of select GV sites at the scale of the TMI footprint. The analysis provided a more direct probe of the satellite rain algorithms using ground data as an empirical reference. TSVO has also made significant advances in radar quality control through the development of the Relative Calibration Adjustment (RCA) technique. The RCA is currently being used to provide a long-term record of radar calibration for the radar at Kwajalein, a strategically important GV site in the tropical Pacific. The RCA technique has revealed previously undetected alterations in the radar sensitivity due to engineering changes (e.g., system modifications, antenna offsets, alterations of the receiver, or the data processor), making possible the correction of the radar rainfall measurements and ensuring the integrity of nearly a decade of TRMM GV observations and resources.

Accounting for Sampling Error in Genetic Eigenvalues Using Random Matrix Theory.

PubMed

Sztepanacz, Jacqueline L; Blows, Mark W

2017-07-01

The distribution of genetic variance in multivariate phenotypes is characterized by the empirical spectral distribution of the eigenvalues of the genetic covariance matrix. Empirical estimates of genetic eigenvalues from random effects linear models are known to be overdispersed by sampling error, where large eigenvalues are biased upward, and small eigenvalues are biased downward. The overdispersion of the leading eigenvalues of sample covariance matrices have been demonstrated to conform to the Tracy-Widom (TW) distribution. Here we show that genetic eigenvalues estimated using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) in a multivariate random effects model with an unconstrained genetic covariance structure will also conform to the TW distribution after empirical scaling and centering. However, where estimation procedures using either REML or MCMC impose boundary constraints, the resulting genetic eigenvalues tend not be TW distributed. We show how using confidence intervals from sampling distributions of genetic eigenvalues without reference to the TW distribution is insufficient protection against mistaking sampling error as genetic variance, particularly when eigenvalues are small. By scaling such sampling distributions to the appropriate TW distribution, the critical value of the TW statistic can be used to determine if the magnitude of a genetic eigenvalue exceeds the sampling error for each eigenvalue in the spectral distribution of a given genetic covariance matrix. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Maximum type 1 error rate inflation in multiarmed clinical trials with adaptive interim sample size modifications.

PubMed

Graf, Alexandra C; Bauer, Peter; Glimm, Ekkehard; Koenig, Franz

2014-07-01

Sample size modifications in the interim analyses of an adaptive design can inflate the type 1 error rate, if test statistics and critical boundaries are used in the final analysis as if no modification had been made. While this is already true for designs with an overall change of the sample size in a balanced treatment-control comparison, the inflation can be much larger if in addition a modification of allocation ratios is allowed as well. In this paper, we investigate adaptive designs with several treatment arms compared to a single common control group. Regarding modifications, we consider treatment arm selection as well as modifications of overall sample size and allocation ratios. The inflation is quantified for two approaches: a naive procedure that ignores not only all modifications, but also the multiplicity issue arising from the many-to-one comparison, and a Dunnett procedure that ignores modifications, but adjusts for the initially started multiple treatments. The maximum inflation of the type 1 error rate for such types of design can be calculated by searching for the "worst case" scenarios, that are sample size adaptation rules in the interim analysis that lead to the largest conditional type 1 error rate in any point of the sample space. To show the most extreme inflation, we initially assume unconstrained second stage sample size modifications leading to a large inflation of the type 1 error rate. Furthermore, we investigate the inflation when putting constraints on the second stage sample sizes. It turns out that, for example fixing the sample size of the control group, leads to designs controlling the type 1 error rate. © 2014 The Author. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Impact of Design Effects in Large-Scale District and State Assessments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Gary W.

2015-01-01

This article proposes that sampling design effects have potentially huge unrecognized impacts on the results reported by large-scale district and state assessments in the United States. When design effects are unrecognized and unaccounted for they lead to underestimating the sampling error in item and test statistics. Underestimating the sampling…

A General Linear Method for Equating with Small Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Albano, Anthony D.

2015-01-01

Research on equating with small samples has shown that methods with stronger assumptions and fewer statistical estimates can lead to decreased error in the estimated equating function. This article introduces a new approach to linear observed-score equating, one which provides flexible control over how form difficulty is assumed versus estimated…

An Investigation of Sample Size Splitting on ATFIND and DIMTEST

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Socha, Alan; DeMars, Christine E.

2013-01-01

Modeling multidimensional test data with a unidimensional model can result in serious statistical errors, such as bias in item parameter estimates. Many methods exist for assessing the dimensionality of a test. The current study focused on DIMTEST. Using simulated data, the effects of sample size splitting for use with the ATFIND procedure for…

Probabilistic performance estimators for computational chemistry methods: The empirical cumulative distribution function of absolute errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pernot, Pascal; Savin, Andreas

2018-06-01

Benchmarking studies in computational chemistry use reference datasets to assess the accuracy of a method through error statistics. The commonly used error statistics, such as the mean signed and mean unsigned errors, do not inform end-users on the expected amplitude of prediction errors attached to these methods. We show that, the distributions of model errors being neither normal nor zero-centered, these error statistics cannot be used to infer prediction error probabilities. To overcome this limitation, we advocate for the use of more informative statistics, based on the empirical cumulative distribution function of unsigned errors, namely, (1) the probability for a new calculation to have an absolute error below a chosen threshold and (2) the maximal amplitude of errors one can expect with a chosen high confidence level. Those statistics are also shown to be well suited for benchmarking and ranking studies. Moreover, the standard error on all benchmarking statistics depends on the size of the reference dataset. Systematic publication of these standard errors would be very helpful to assess the statistical reliability of benchmarking conclusions.

National Incidence of Medication Error in Surgical Patients Before and After Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Duty-Hour Reform.

PubMed

Vadera, Sumeet; Griffith, Sandra D; Rosenbaum, Benjamin P; Chan, Alvin Y; Thompson, Nicolas R; Kshettry, Varun R; Kelly, Michael L; Weil, Robert J; Bingaman, William; Jehi, Lara

2015-01-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) established duty-hour regulations for accredited residency programs on July 1, 2003. It is unclear what changes occurred in the national incidence of medication errors in surgical patients before and after ACGME regulations. Patient and hospital characteristics for pre- and post-duty-hour reform were evaluated, comparing teaching and nonteaching hospitals. A difference-in-differences study design was used to assess the association between duty-hour reform and medication errors in teaching hospitals. We used the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database, which consists of approximately annual 20% stratified sample of all the United States nonfederal hospital inpatient admissions. A query of the database, including 4 years before (2000-2003) and 8 years after (2003-2011) the ACGME duty-hour reform of July 2003, was performed to extract surgical inpatient hospitalizations (N = 13,933,326). The years 2003 and 2004 were discarded in the analysis to allow for a wash-out period during duty-hour reform (though we still provide medication error rates). The Nationwide Inpatient Sample estimated the total national surgical inpatients (N = 135,092,013) in nonfederal hospitals during these time periods with 68,736,863 patients in teaching hospitals and 66,355,150 in nonteaching hospitals. Shortly after duty-hour reform (2004 and 2006), teaching hospitals had a statistically significant increase in rate of medication error (p = 0.019 and 0.006, respectively) when compared with nonteaching hospitals even after accounting for trends across all hospitals during this period. After 2007, no further statistically significant difference was noted. After ACGME duty-hour reform, medication error rates increased in teaching hospitals, which diminished over time. This decrease in errors may be related to changes in training program structure to accommodate duty-hour reform. Copyright © 2015 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Correcting for Optimistic Prediction in Small Data Sets

PubMed Central

Smith, Gordon C. S.; Seaman, Shaun R.; Wood, Angela M.; Royston, Patrick; White, Ian R.

2014-01-01

The C statistic is a commonly reported measure of screening test performance. Optimistic estimation of the C statistic is a frequent problem because of overfitting of statistical models in small data sets, and methods exist to correct for this issue. However, many studies do not use such methods, and those that do correct for optimism use diverse methods, some of which are known to be biased. We used clinical data sets (United Kingdom Down syndrome screening data from Glasgow (1991–2003), Edinburgh (1999–2003), and Cambridge (1990–2006), as well as Scottish national pregnancy discharge data (2004–2007)) to evaluate different approaches to adjustment for optimism. We found that sample splitting, cross-validation without replication, and leave-1-out cross-validation produced optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic that were biased and/or associated with greater absolute error than other available methods. Cross-validation with replication, bootstrapping, and a new method (leave-pair-out cross-validation) all generated unbiased optimism-adjusted estimates of the C statistic and had similar absolute errors in the clinical data set. Larger simulation studies confirmed that all 3 methods performed similarly with 10 or more events per variable, or when the C statistic was 0.9 or greater. However, with lower events per variable or lower C statistics, bootstrapping tended to be optimistic but with lower absolute and mean squared errors than both methods of cross-validation. PMID:24966219

Irregular analytical errors in diagnostic testing - a novel concept.

PubMed

Vogeser, Michael; Seger, Christoph

2018-02-23

In laboratory medicine, routine periodic analyses for internal and external quality control measurements interpreted by statistical methods are mandatory for batch clearance. Data analysis of these process-oriented measurements allows for insight into random analytical variation and systematic calibration bias over time. However, in such a setting, any individual sample is not under individual quality control. The quality control measurements act only at the batch level. Quantitative or qualitative data derived for many effects and interferences associated with an individual diagnostic sample can compromise any analyte. It is obvious that a process for a quality-control-sample-based approach of quality assurance is not sensitive to such errors. To address the potential causes and nature of such analytical interference in individual samples more systematically, we suggest the introduction of a new term called the irregular (individual) analytical error. Practically, this term can be applied in any analytical assay that is traceable to a reference measurement system. For an individual sample an irregular analytical error is defined as an inaccuracy (which is the deviation from a reference measurement procedure result) of a test result that is so high it cannot be explained by measurement uncertainty of the utilized routine assay operating within the accepted limitations of the associated process quality control measurements. The deviation can be defined as the linear combination of the process measurement uncertainty and the method bias for the reference measurement system. Such errors should be coined irregular analytical errors of the individual sample. The measurement result is compromised either by an irregular effect associated with the individual composition (matrix) of the sample or an individual single sample associated processing error in the analytical process. Currently, the availability of reference measurement procedures is still highly limited, but LC-isotope-dilution mass spectrometry methods are increasingly used for pre-market validation of routine diagnostic assays (these tests also involve substantial sets of clinical validation samples). Based on this definition/terminology, we list recognized causes of irregular analytical error as a risk catalog for clinical chemistry in this article. These issues include reproducible individual analytical errors (e.g. caused by anti-reagent antibodies) and non-reproducible, sporadic errors (e.g. errors due to incorrect pipetting volume due to air bubbles in a sample), which can both lead to inaccurate results and risks for patients.

Survey methods for assessing land cover map accuracy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nusser, S.M.; Klaas, E.E.

2003-01-01

The increasing availability of digital photographic materials has fueled efforts by agencies and organizations to generate land cover maps for states, regions, and the United States as a whole. Regardless of the information sources and classification methods used, land cover maps are subject to numerous sources of error. In order to understand the quality of the information contained in these maps, it is desirable to generate statistically valid estimates of accuracy rates describing misclassification errors. We explored a full sample survey framework for creating accuracy assessment study designs that balance statistical and operational considerations in relation to study objectives for a regional assessment of GAP land cover maps. We focused not only on appropriate sample designs and estimation approaches, but on aspects of the data collection process, such as gaining cooperation of land owners and using pixel clusters as an observation unit. The approach was tested in a pilot study to assess the accuracy of Iowa GAP land cover maps. A stratified two-stage cluster sampling design addressed sample size requirements for land covers and the need for geographic spread while minimizing operational effort. Recruitment methods used for private land owners yielded high response rates, minimizing a source of nonresponse error. Collecting data for a 9-pixel cluster centered on the sampled pixel was simple to implement, and provided better information on rarer vegetation classes as well as substantial gains in precision relative to observing data at a single-pixel.

Improving the analysis of composite endpoints in rare disease trials.

PubMed

McMenamin, Martina; Berglind, Anna; Wason, James M S

2018-05-22

Composite endpoints are recommended in rare diseases to increase power and/or to sufficiently capture complexity. Often, they are in the form of responder indices which contain a mixture of continuous and binary components. Analyses of these outcomes typically treat them as binary, thus only using the dichotomisations of continuous components. The augmented binary method offers a more efficient alternative and is therefore especially useful for rare diseases. Previous work has indicated the method may have poorer statistical properties when the sample size is small. Here we investigate small sample properties and implement small sample corrections. We re-sample from a previous trial with sample sizes varying from 30 to 80. We apply the standard binary and augmented binary methods and determine the power, type I error rate, coverage and average confidence interval width for each of the estimators. We implement Firth's adjustment for the binary component models and a small sample variance correction for the generalized estimating equations, applying the small sample adjusted methods to each sub-sample as before for comparison. For the log-odds treatment effect the power of the augmented binary method is 20-55% compared to 12-20% for the standard binary method. Both methods have approximately nominal type I error rates. The difference in response probabilities exhibit similar power but both unadjusted methods demonstrate type I error rates of 6-8%. The small sample corrected methods have approximately nominal type I error rates. On both scales, the reduction in average confidence interval width when using the adjusted augmented binary method is 17-18%. This is equivalent to requiring a 32% smaller sample size to achieve the same statistical power. The augmented binary method with small sample corrections provides a substantial improvement for rare disease trials using composite endpoints. We recommend the use of the method for the primary analysis in relevant rare disease trials. We emphasise that the method should be used alongside other efforts in improving the quality of evidence generated from rare disease trials rather than replace them.

Analyzing self-controlled case series data when case confirmation rates are estimated from an internal validation sample.

PubMed

Xu, Stanley; Clarke, Christina L; Newcomer, Sophia R; Daley, Matthew F; Glanz, Jason M

2018-05-16

Vaccine safety studies are often electronic health record (EHR)-based observational studies. These studies often face significant methodological challenges, including confounding and misclassification of adverse event. Vaccine safety researchers use self-controlled case series (SCCS) study design to handle confounding effect and employ medical chart review to ascertain cases that are identified using EHR data. However, for common adverse events, limited resources often make it impossible to adjudicate all adverse events observed in electronic data. In this paper, we considered four approaches for analyzing SCCS data with confirmation rates estimated from an internal validation sample: (1) observed cases, (2) confirmed cases only, (3) known confirmation rate, and (4) multiple imputation (MI). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate these four approaches using type I error rates, percent bias, and empirical power. Our simulation results suggest that when misclassification of adverse events is present, approaches such as observed cases, confirmed case only, and known confirmation rate may inflate the type I error, yield biased point estimates, and affect statistical power. The multiple imputation approach considers the uncertainty of estimated confirmation rates from an internal validation sample, yields a proper type I error rate, largely unbiased point estimate, proper variance estimate, and statistical power. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Rate, causes and reporting of medication errors in Jordan: nurses' perspectives.

PubMed

Mrayyan, Majd T; Shishani, Kawkab; Al-Faouri, Ibrahim

2007-09-01

The aim of the study was to describe Jordanian nurses' perceptions about various issues related to medication errors. This is the first nursing study about medication errors in Jordan. This was a descriptive study. A convenient sample of 799 nurses from 24 hospitals was obtained. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for data analysis. Over the course of their nursing career, the average number of recalled committed medication errors per nurse was 2.2. Using incident reports, the rate of medication errors reported to nurse managers was 42.1%. Medication errors occurred mainly when medication labels/packaging were of poor quality or damaged. Nurses failed to report medication errors because they were afraid that they might be subjected to disciplinary actions or even lose their jobs. In the stepwise regression model, gender was the only predictor of medication errors in Jordan. Strategies to reduce or eliminate medication errors are required.

Perception of Community Pharmacists towards Dispensing Errors in Community Pharmacy Setting in Gondar Town, Northwest Ethiopia

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Dispensing errors are inevitable occurrences in community pharmacies across the world. Objective This study aimed to identify the community pharmacists' perception towards dispensing errors in the community pharmacies in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted among 47 community pharmacists selected through convenience sampling. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Descriptive statistics, Mann–Whitney U test, and Pearson's Chi-square test of independence were conducted with P ≤ 0.05 considered statistically significant. Result The majority of respondents were in the 23–28-year age group (N = 26, 55.3%) and with at least B.Pharm degree (N = 25, 53.2%). Poor prescription handwriting and similar/confusing names were perceived to be the main contributing factors while all the strategies and types of dispensing errors were highly acknowledged by the respondents. Group differences (P < 0.05) in opinions were largely due to educational level and age. Conclusion Dispensing errors were associated with prescribing quality and design of dispensary as well as dispensing procedures. Opinion differences relate to age and educational status of the respondents. PMID:28612023

Perception of Community Pharmacists towards Dispensing Errors in Community Pharmacy Setting in Gondar Town, Northwest Ethiopia.

PubMed

Asmelashe Gelayee, Dessalegn; Binega Mekonnen, Gashaw

2017-01-01

Dispensing errors are inevitable occurrences in community pharmacies across the world. This study aimed to identify the community pharmacists' perception towards dispensing errors in the community pharmacies in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 47 community pharmacists selected through convenience sampling. Data were analyzed using SPSS version 20. Descriptive statistics, Mann-Whitney U test, and Pearson's Chi-square test of independence were conducted with P ≤ 0.05 considered statistically significant. The majority of respondents were in the 23-28-year age group ( N = 26, 55.3%) and with at least B.Pharm degree ( N = 25, 53.2%). Poor prescription handwriting and similar/confusing names were perceived to be the main contributing factors while all the strategies and types of dispensing errors were highly acknowledged by the respondents. Group differences ( P < 0.05) in opinions were largely due to educational level and age. Dispensing errors were associated with prescribing quality and design of dispensary as well as dispensing procedures. Opinion differences relate to age and educational status of the respondents.

Prediction and standard error estimation for a finite universe total when a stratum is not sampled

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wright, T.

1994-01-01

In the context of a universe of trucks operating in the United States in 1990, this paper presents statistical methodology for estimating a finite universe total on a second occasion when a part of the universe is sampled and the remainder of the universe is not sampled. Prediction is used to compensate for the lack of data from the unsampled portion of the universe. The sample is assumed to be a subsample of an earlier sample where stratification is used on both occasions before sample selection. Accounting for births and deaths in the universe between the two points in time,more » the detailed sampling plan, estimator, standard error, and optimal sample allocation, are presented with a focus on the second occasion. If prior auxiliary information is available, the methodology is also applicable to a first occasion.« less

A Monte Carlo Study of Levene's Test of Homogeneity of Variance: Empirical Frequencies of Type I Error in Normal Distributions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Neel, John H.; Stallings, William M.

An influential statistics test recommends a Levene text for homogeneity of variance. A recent note suggests that Levene's test is upwardly biased for small samples. Another report shows inflated Alpha estimates and low power. Neither study utilized more than two sample sizes. This Monte Carlo study involved sampling from a normal population for…

Experimental toxicology: Issues of statistics, experimental design, and replication.

PubMed

Briner, Wayne; Kirwan, Jeral

2017-01-01

The difficulty of replicating experiments has drawn considerable attention. Issues with replication occur for a variety of reasons ranging from experimental design to laboratory errors to inappropriate statistical analysis. Here we review a variety of guidelines for statistical analysis, design, and execution of experiments in toxicology. In general, replication can be improved by using hypothesis driven experiments with adequate sample sizes, randomization, and blind data collection techniques. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Performance of a PN Spread Spectrum Receiver Preceded by an Adaptive Interference Suppression Filter.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-12-01

Sequence dj Estimate of the Desired Signal DEL Sampling Time Interval DS Direct Sequence c Sufficient Statistic E/T Signal Power Erfc Complimentary Error...Namely, a white Gaussian noise (WGN) generator was added. Also, a statistical subroutine was added in order to assess performance improvement at the...reference code and then passed through a correlation detector whose output is the sufficient 1 statistic , e . Using a threshold device and the sufficient

Statistical inference involving binomial and negative binomial parameters.

PubMed

García-Pérez, Miguel A; Núñez-Antón, Vicente

2009-05-01

Statistical inference about two binomial parameters implies that they are both estimated by binomial sampling. There are occasions in which one aims at testing the equality of two binomial parameters before and after the occurrence of the first success along a sequence of Bernoulli trials. In these cases, the binomial parameter before the first success is estimated by negative binomial sampling whereas that after the first success is estimated by binomial sampling, and both estimates are related. This paper derives statistical tools to test two hypotheses, namely, that both binomial parameters equal some specified value and that both parameters are equal though unknown. Simulation studies are used to show that in small samples both tests are accurate in keeping the nominal Type-I error rates, and also to determine sample size requirements to detect large, medium, and small effects with adequate power. Additional simulations also show that the tests are sufficiently robust to certain violations of their assumptions.

Sampling errors for a nadir viewing instrument on the International Space Station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berger, H. I.; Pincus, R.; Evans, F.; Santek, D.; Ackerman, S.; Ackerman, S.

2001-12-01

In an effort to improve the observational charactarization of ice clouds in the earth's atmosphere, we are developing a sub-millimeter wavelength radiometer which we propose to fly on the International Space Station for two years. Our goal is to accurately measure the ice water path and mass-weighted particle size at the finest possible temporal and spatial resolution. The ISS orbit precesses, sampling through the dirunal cycle every 16 days, but technological constraints limit our instrument to a single pixel viewed near nadir. We discuss sampling errors associated with this instrument/platform configuration. We use as "truth" the ISCCP dataset of pixel-level cloud optical retrievals, which acts as a proxy for ice water path; this dataset is sampled according to the orbital characteristics of the space station, and the statistics computed from the sub-sampled population are compared with those from the full dataset. We explore the tradeoffs in average sampling error as a function of the averaging time and spatial scale, and explore the possibility of resolving the dirunal cycle.

Unbiased estimation of oceanic mean rainfall from satellite borne radiometer measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mittal, M. C.

1981-01-01

The statistical properties of the radar derived rainfall obtained during the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) are used to derive quantitative estimates of the spatial and temporal sampling errors associated with estimating rainfall from brightness temperature measurements such as would be obtained from a satelliteborne microwave radiometer employing a practical size antenna aperture. A basis for a method of correcting the so called beam filling problem, i.e., for the effect of nonuniformity of rainfall over the radiometer beamwidth is provided. The method presented employs the statistical properties of the observations themselves without need for physical assumptions beyond those associated with the radiative transfer model. The simulation results presented offer a validation of the estimated accuracy that can be achieved and the graphs included permit evaluation of the effect of the antenna resolution on both the temporal and spatial sampling errors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, R; Bai, W

Purpose: Because of statistical noise in Monte Carlo dose calculations, effective point doses may not be accurate. Volume spheres are useful for evaluating dose in Monte Carlo plans, which have an inherent statistical uncertainty.We use a user-defined sphere volume instead of a point, take sphere sampling around effective point make the dose statistics to decrease the stochastic errors. Methods: Direct dose measurements were made using a 0.125cc Semiflex ion chamber (IC) 31010 isocentrically placed in the center of a homogeneous Cylindric sliced RW3 phantom (PTW, Germany).In the scanned CT phantom series the sensitive volume length of the IC (6.5mm) weremore » delineated and defined the isocenter as the simulation effective points. All beams were simulated in Monaco in accordance to the measured model. In our simulation using 2mm voxels calculation grid spacing and choose calculate dose to medium and request the relative standard deviation ≤0.5%. Taking three different assigned IC over densities (air electron density(ED) as 0.01g/cm3 default CT scanned ED and Esophageal lumen ED 0.21g/cm3) were tested at different sampling sphere radius (2.5, 2, 1.5 and 1 mm) statistics dose were compared with the measured does. Results: The results show that in the Monaco TPS for the IC using Esophageal lumen ED 0.21g/cm3 and sampling sphere radius 1.5mm the statistical value is the best accordance with the measured value, the absolute average percentage deviation is 0.49%. And when the IC using air electron density(ED) as 0.01g/cm3 and default CT scanned EDthe recommented statistical sampling sphere radius is 2.5mm, the percentage deviation are 0.61% and 0.70%, respectivly. Conclusion: In Monaco treatment planning system for the ionization chamber 31010 recommend air cavity using ED 0.21g/cm3 and sampling 1.5mm sphere volume instead of a point dose to decrease the stochastic errors. Funding Support No.C201505006.« less

The endothelial sample size analysis in corneal specular microscopy clinical examinations.

PubMed

Abib, Fernando C; Holzchuh, Ricardo; Schaefer, Artur; Schaefer, Tania; Godois, Ronialci

2012-05-01

To evaluate endothelial cell sample size and statistical error in corneal specular microscopy (CSM) examinations. One hundred twenty examinations were conducted with 4 types of corneal specular microscopes: 30 with each BioOptics, CSO, Konan, and Topcon corneal specular microscopes. All endothelial image data were analyzed by respective instrument software and also by the Cells Analyzer software with a method developed in our lab. A reliability degree (RD) of 95% and a relative error (RE) of 0.05 were used as cut-off values to analyze images of the counted endothelial cells called samples. The sample size mean was the number of cells evaluated on the images obtained with each device. Only examinations with RE < 0.05 were considered statistically correct and suitable for comparisons with future examinations. The Cells Analyzer software was used to calculate the RE and customized sample size for all examinations. Bio-Optics: sample size, 97 ± 22 cells; RE, 6.52 ± 0.86; only 10% of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE < 0.05); customized sample size, 162 ± 34 cells. CSO: sample size, 110 ± 20 cells; RE, 5.98 ± 0.98; only 16.6% of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE < 0.05); customized sample size, 157 ± 45 cells. Konan: sample size, 80 ± 27 cells; RE, 10.6 ± 3.67; none of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE > 0.05); customized sample size, 336 ± 131 cells. Topcon: sample size, 87 ± 17 cells; RE, 10.1 ± 2.52; none of the examinations had sufficient endothelial cell quantity (RE > 0.05); customized sample size, 382 ± 159 cells. A very high number of CSM examinations had sample errors based on Cells Analyzer software. The endothelial sample size (examinations) needs to include more cells to be reliable and reproducible. The Cells Analyzer tutorial routine will be useful for CSM examination reliability and reproducibility.

Powerful Inference with the D-Statistic on Low-Coverage Whole-Genome Data.

PubMed

Soraggi, Samuele; Wiuf, Carsten; Albrechtsen, Anders

2018-02-02

The detection of ancient gene flow between human populations is an important issue in population genetics. A common tool for detecting ancient admixture events is the D-statistic. The D-statistic is based on the hypothesis of a genetic relationship that involves four populations, whose correctness is assessed by evaluating specific coincidences of alleles between the groups. When working with high-throughput sequencing data, calling genotypes accurately is not always possible; therefore, the D-statistic currently samples a single base from the reads of one individual per population. This implies ignoring much of the information in the data, an issue especially striking in the case of ancient genomes. We provide a significant improvement to overcome the problems of the D-statistic by considering all reads from multiple individuals in each population. We also apply type-specific error correction to combat the problems of sequencing errors, and show a way to correct for introgression from an external population that is not part of the supposed genetic relationship, and how this leads to an estimate of the admixture rate. We prove that the D-statistic is approximated by a standard normal distribution. Furthermore, we show that our method outperforms the traditional D-statistic in detecting admixtures. The power gain is most pronounced for low and medium sequencing depth (1-10×), and performances are as good as with perfectly called genotypes at a sequencing depth of 2×. We show the reliability of error correction in scenarios with simulated errors and ancient data, and correct for introgression in known scenarios to estimate the admixture rates. Copyright © 2018 Soraggi et al.

Biostatistics Series Module 5: Determining Sample Size

PubMed Central

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Determining the appropriate sample size for a study, whatever be its type, is a fundamental aspect of biomedical research. An adequate sample ensures that the study will yield reliable information, regardless of whether the data ultimately suggests a clinically important difference between the interventions or elements being studied. The probability of Type 1 and Type 2 errors, the expected variance in the sample and the effect size are the essential determinants of sample size in interventional studies. Any method for deriving a conclusion from experimental data carries with it some risk of drawing a false conclusion. Two types of false conclusion may occur, called Type 1 and Type 2 errors, whose probabilities are denoted by the symbols σ and β. A Type 1 error occurs when one concludes that a difference exists between the groups being compared when, in reality, it does not. This is akin to a false positive result. A Type 2 error occurs when one concludes that difference does not exist when, in reality, a difference does exist, and it is equal to or larger than the effect size defined by the alternative to the null hypothesis. This may be viewed as a false negative result. When considering the risk of Type 2 error, it is more intuitive to think in terms of power of the study or (1 − β). Power denotes the probability of detecting a difference when a difference does exist between the groups being compared. Smaller α or larger power will increase sample size. Conventional acceptable values for power and α are 80% or above and 5% or below, respectively, when calculating sample size. Increasing variance in the sample tends to increase the sample size required to achieve a given power level. The effect size is the smallest clinically important difference that is sought to be detected and, rather than statistical convention, is a matter of past experience and clinical judgment. Larger samples are required if smaller differences are to be detected. Although the principles are long known, historically, sample size determination has been difficult, because of relatively complex mathematical considerations and numerous different formulas. However, of late, there has been remarkable improvement in the availability, capability, and user-friendliness of power and sample size determination software. Many can execute routines for determination of sample size and power for a wide variety of research designs and statistical tests. With the drudgery of mathematical calculation gone, researchers must now concentrate on determining appropriate sample size and achieving these targets, so that study conclusions can be accepted as meaningful. PMID:27688437

Evaluating the effect of disturbed ensemble distributions on SCFG based statistical sampling of RNA secondary structures.

PubMed

Scheid, Anika; Nebel, Markus E

2012-07-09

Over the past years, statistical and Bayesian approaches have become increasingly appreciated to address the long-standing problem of computational RNA structure prediction. Recently, a novel probabilistic method for the prediction of RNA secondary structures from a single sequence has been studied which is based on generating statistically representative and reproducible samples of the entire ensemble of feasible structures for a particular input sequence. This method samples the possible foldings from a distribution implied by a sophisticated (traditional or length-dependent) stochastic context-free grammar (SCFG) that mirrors the standard thermodynamic model applied in modern physics-based prediction algorithms. Specifically, that grammar represents an exact probabilistic counterpart to the energy model underlying the Sfold software, which employs a sampling extension of the partition function (PF) approach to produce statistically representative subsets of the Boltzmann-weighted ensemble. Although both sampling approaches have the same worst-case time and space complexities, it has been indicated that they differ in performance (both with respect to prediction accuracy and quality of generated samples), where neither of these two competing approaches generally outperforms the other. In this work, we will consider the SCFG based approach in order to perform an analysis on how the quality of generated sample sets and the corresponding prediction accuracy changes when different degrees of disturbances are incorporated into the needed sampling probabilities. This is motivated by the fact that if the results prove to be resistant to large errors on the distinct sampling probabilities (compared to the exact ones), then it will be an indication that these probabilities do not need to be computed exactly, but it may be sufficient and more efficient to approximate them. Thus, it might then be possible to decrease the worst-case time requirements of such an SCFG based sampling method without significant accuracy losses. If, on the other hand, the quality of sampled structures can be observed to strongly react to slight disturbances, there is little hope for improving the complexity by heuristic procedures. We hence provide a reliable test for the hypothesis that a heuristic method could be implemented to improve the time scaling of RNA secondary structure prediction in the worst-case - without sacrificing much of the accuracy of the results. Our experiments indicate that absolute errors generally lead to the generation of useless sample sets, whereas relative errors seem to have only small negative impact on both the predictive accuracy and the overall quality of resulting structure samples. Based on these observations, we present some useful ideas for developing a time-reduced sampling method guaranteeing an acceptable predictive accuracy. We also discuss some inherent drawbacks that arise in the context of approximation. The key results of this paper are crucial for the design of an efficient and competitive heuristic prediction method based on the increasingly accepted and attractive statistical sampling approach. This has indeed been indicated by the construction of prototype algorithms.

Evaluating the effect of disturbed ensemble distributions on SCFG based statistical sampling of RNA secondary structures

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Over the past years, statistical and Bayesian approaches have become increasingly appreciated to address the long-standing problem of computational RNA structure prediction. Recently, a novel probabilistic method for the prediction of RNA secondary structures from a single sequence has been studied which is based on generating statistically representative and reproducible samples of the entire ensemble of feasible structures for a particular input sequence. This method samples the possible foldings from a distribution implied by a sophisticated (traditional or length-dependent) stochastic context-free grammar (SCFG) that mirrors the standard thermodynamic model applied in modern physics-based prediction algorithms. Specifically, that grammar represents an exact probabilistic counterpart to the energy model underlying the Sfold software, which employs a sampling extension of the partition function (PF) approach to produce statistically representative subsets of the Boltzmann-weighted ensemble. Although both sampling approaches have the same worst-case time and space complexities, it has been indicated that they differ in performance (both with respect to prediction accuracy and quality of generated samples), where neither of these two competing approaches generally outperforms the other. Results In this work, we will consider the SCFG based approach in order to perform an analysis on how the quality of generated sample sets and the corresponding prediction accuracy changes when different degrees of disturbances are incorporated into the needed sampling probabilities. This is motivated by the fact that if the results prove to be resistant to large errors on the distinct sampling probabilities (compared to the exact ones), then it will be an indication that these probabilities do not need to be computed exactly, but it may be sufficient and more efficient to approximate them. Thus, it might then be possible to decrease the worst-case time requirements of such an SCFG based sampling method without significant accuracy losses. If, on the other hand, the quality of sampled structures can be observed to strongly react to slight disturbances, there is little hope for improving the complexity by heuristic procedures. We hence provide a reliable test for the hypothesis that a heuristic method could be implemented to improve the time scaling of RNA secondary structure prediction in the worst-case – without sacrificing much of the accuracy of the results. Conclusions Our experiments indicate that absolute errors generally lead to the generation of useless sample sets, whereas relative errors seem to have only small negative impact on both the predictive accuracy and the overall quality of resulting structure samples. Based on these observations, we present some useful ideas for developing a time-reduced sampling method guaranteeing an acceptable predictive accuracy. We also discuss some inherent drawbacks that arise in the context of approximation. The key results of this paper are crucial for the design of an efficient and competitive heuristic prediction method based on the increasingly accepted and attractive statistical sampling approach. This has indeed been indicated by the construction of prototype algorithms. PMID:22776037

Frozen section analysis of margins for head and neck tumor resections: reduction of sampling errors with a third histologic level.

PubMed

Olson, Stephen M; Hussaini, Mohammad; Lewis, James S

2011-05-01

Frozen section analysis is an essential tool for assessing margins intra-operatively to assure complete resection. Many institutions evaluate surgical defect edge tissue provided by the surgeon after the main lesion has been removed. With the increasing use of transoral laser microsurgery, this method is becoming even more prevalent. We sought to evaluate error rates at our large academic institution and to see if sampling errors could be reduced by the simple method change of taking an additional third section on these specimens. All head and neck tumor resection cases from January 2005 through August 2008 with margins evaluated by frozen section were identified by database search. These cases were analyzed by cutting two levels during frozen section and a third permanent section later. All resection cases from August 2008 through July 2009 were identified as well. These were analyzed by cutting three levels during frozen section (the third a 'much deeper' level) and a fourth permanent section later. Error rates for both of these periods were determined. Errors were separated into sampling and interpretation types. There were 4976 total frozen section specimens from 848 patients. The overall error rate was 2.4% for all frozen sections where just two levels were evaluated and was 2.5% when three levels were evaluated (P=0.67). The sampling error rate was 1.6% for two-level sectioning and 1.2% for three-level sectioning (P=0.42). However, when considering only the frozen section cases where tumor was ultimately identified (either at the time of frozen section or on permanent sections) the sampling error rate for two-level sectioning was 15.3 versus 7.4% for three-level sectioning. This difference was statistically significant (P=0.006). Cutting a single additional 'deeper' level at the time of frozen section identifies more tumor-bearing specimens and may reduce the number of sampling errors.

Quasi-Likelihood Techniques in a Logistic Regression Equation for Identifying Simulium damnosum s.l. Larval Habitats Intra-cluster Covariates in Togo.

PubMed

Jacob, Benjamin G; Novak, Robert J; Toe, Laurent; Sanfo, Moussa S; Afriyie, Abena N; Ibrahim, Mohammed A; Griffith, Daniel A; Unnasch, Thomas R

2012-01-01

The standard methods for regression analyses of clustered riverine larval habitat data of Simulium damnosum s.l. a major black-fly vector of Onchoceriasis, postulate models relating observational ecological-sampled parameter estimators to prolific habitats without accounting for residual intra-cluster error correlation effects. Generally, this correlation comes from two sources: (1) the design of the random effects and their assumed covariance from the multiple levels within the regression model; and, (2) the correlation structure of the residuals. Unfortunately, inconspicuous errors in residual intra-cluster correlation estimates can overstate precision in forecasted S.damnosum s.l. riverine larval habitat explanatory attributes regardless how they are treated (e.g., independent, autoregressive, Toeplitz, etc). In this research, the geographical locations for multiple riverine-based S. damnosum s.l. larval ecosystem habitats sampled from 2 pre-established epidemiological sites in Togo were identified and recorded from July 2009 to June 2010. Initially the data was aggregated into proc genmod. An agglomerative hierarchical residual cluster-based analysis was then performed. The sampled clustered study site data was then analyzed for statistical correlations using Monthly Biting Rates (MBR). Euclidean distance measurements and terrain-related geomorphological statistics were then generated in ArcGIS. A digital overlay was then performed also in ArcGIS using the georeferenced ground coordinates of high and low density clusters stratified by Annual Biting Rates (ABR). This data was overlain onto multitemporal sub-meter pixel resolution satellite data (i.e., QuickBird 0.61m wavbands ). Orthogonal spatial filter eigenvectors were then generated in SAS/GIS. Univariate and non-linear regression-based models (i.e., Logistic, Poisson and Negative Binomial) were also employed to determine probability distributions and to identify statistically significant parameter estimators from the sampled data. Thereafter, Durbin-Watson test statistics were used to test the null hypothesis that the regression residuals were not autocorrelated against the alternative that the residuals followed an autoregressive process in AUTOREG. Bayesian uncertainty matrices were also constructed employing normal priors for each of the sampled estimators in PROC MCMC. The residuals revealed both spatially structured and unstructured error effects in the high and low ABR-stratified clusters. The analyses also revealed that the estimators, levels of turbidity and presence of rocks were statistically significant for the high-ABR-stratified clusters, while the estimators distance between habitats and floating vegetation were important for the low-ABR-stratified cluster. Varying and constant coefficient regression models, ABR- stratified GIS-generated clusters, sub-meter resolution satellite imagery, a robust residual intra-cluster diagnostic test, MBR-based histograms, eigendecomposition spatial filter algorithms and Bayesian matrices can enable accurate autoregressive estimation of latent uncertainity affects and other residual error probabilities (i.e., heteroskedasticity) for testing correlations between georeferenced S. damnosum s.l. riverine larval habitat estimators. The asymptotic distribution of the resulting residual adjusted intra-cluster predictor error autocovariate coefficients can thereafter be established while estimates of the asymptotic variance can lead to the construction of approximate confidence intervals for accurately targeting productive S. damnosum s.l habitats based on spatiotemporal field-sampled count data.

A model and variance reduction method for computing statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vidal-Codina, F., E-mail: fvidal@mit.edu; Nguyen, N.C., E-mail: cuongng@mit.edu; Giles, M.B., E-mail: mike.giles@maths.ox.ac.uk

We present a model and variance reduction method for the fast and reliable computation of statistical outputs of stochastic elliptic partial differential equations. Our method consists of three main ingredients: (1) the hybridizable discontinuous Galerkin (HDG) discretization of elliptic partial differential equations (PDEs), which allows us to obtain high-order accurate solutions of the governing PDE; (2) the reduced basis method for a new HDG discretization of the underlying PDE to enable real-time solution of the parameterized PDE in the presence of stochastic parameters; and (3) a multilevel variance reduction method that exploits the statistical correlation among the different reduced basismore » approximations and the high-fidelity HDG discretization to accelerate the convergence of the Monte Carlo simulations. The multilevel variance reduction method provides efficient computation of the statistical outputs by shifting most of the computational burden from the high-fidelity HDG approximation to the reduced basis approximations. Furthermore, we develop a posteriori error estimates for our approximations of the statistical outputs. Based on these error estimates, we propose an algorithm for optimally choosing both the dimensions of the reduced basis approximations and the sizes of Monte Carlo samples to achieve a given error tolerance. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method.« less

Risk management: correct patient and specimen identification in a surgical pathology laboratory. The experience of Infermi Hospital, Rimini, Italy.

PubMed

Fabbretti, G

2010-06-01

Because of its complex nature, surgical pathology practice is prone to error. In this report, we describe our methods for reducing error as much as possible during the pre-analytical and analytical phases. This was achieved by revising procedures, and by using computer technology and automation. Most mistakes are the result of human error in the identification and matching of patient and samples. To avoid faulty data interpretation, we employed a new comprehensive computer system that acquires all patient ID information directly from the hospital's database with a remote order entry; it also provides label and request forms via-Web where clinical information is required before sending the sample. Both patient and sample are identified directly and immediately at the site where the surgical procedures are performed. Barcode technology is used to input information at every step and automation is used for sample blocks and slides to avoid errors that occur when information is recorded or transferred by hand. Quality control checks occur at every step of the process to ensure that none of the steps are left to chance and that no phase is dependent on a single operator. The system also provides statistical analysis of errors so that new strategies can be implemented to avoid repetition. In addition, the staff receives frequent training on avoiding errors and new developments. The results have been shown promising results with a very low error rate (0.27%). None of these compromised patient health and all errors were detected before the release of the diagnosis report.

Dealing with AFLP genotyping errors to reveal genetic structure in Plukenetia volubilis (Euphorbiaceae) in the Peruvian Amazon

PubMed Central

Vašek, Jakub; Viehmannová, Iva; Ocelák, Martin; Cachique Huansi, Danter; Vejl, Pavel

2017-01-01

An analysis of the population structure and genetic diversity for any organism often depends on one or more molecular marker techniques. Nonetheless, these techniques are not absolutely reliable because of various sources of errors arising during the genotyping process. Thus, a complex analysis of genotyping error was carried out with the AFLP method in 169 samples of the oil seed plant Plukenetia volubilis L. from small isolated subpopulations in the Peruvian Amazon. Samples were collected in nine localities from the region of San Martin. Analysis was done in eight datasets with a genotyping error from 0 to 5%. Using eleven primer combinations, 102 to 275 markers were obtained according to the dataset. It was found that it is only possible to obtain the most reliable and robust results through a multiple-level filtering process. Genotyping error and software set up influence both the estimation of population structure and genetic diversity, where in our case population number (K) varied between 2–9 depending on the dataset and statistical method used. Surprisingly, discrepancies in K number were caused more by statistical approaches than by genotyping errors themselves. However, for estimation of genetic diversity, the degree of genotyping error was critical because descriptive parameters (He, FST, PLP 5%) varied substantially (by at least 25%). Due to low gene flow, P. volubilis mostly consists of small isolated subpopulations (ΦPT = 0.252–0.323) with some degree of admixture given by socio-economic connectivity among the sites; a direct link between the genetic and geographic distances was not confirmed. The study illustrates the successful application of AFLP to infer genetic structure in non-model plants. PMID:28910307

Estimating population genetic parameters and comparing model goodness-of-fit using DNA sequences with error

PubMed Central

Liu, Xiaoming; Fu, Yun-Xin; Maxwell, Taylor J.; Boerwinkle, Eric

2010-01-01

It is known that sequencing error can bias estimation of evolutionary or population genetic parameters. This problem is more prominent in deep resequencing studies because of their large sample size n, and a higher probability of error at each nucleotide site. We propose a new method based on the composite likelihood of the observed SNP configurations to infer population mutation rate θ = 4Neμ, population exponential growth rate R, and error rate ɛ, simultaneously. Using simulation, we show the combined effects of the parameters, θ, n, ɛ, and R on the accuracy of parameter estimation. We compared our maximum composite likelihood estimator (MCLE) of θ with other θ estimators that take into account the error. The results show the MCLE performs well when the sample size is large or the error rate is high. Using parametric bootstrap, composite likelihood can also be used as a statistic for testing the model goodness-of-fit of the observed DNA sequences. The MCLE method is applied to sequence data on the ANGPTL4 gene in 1832 African American and 1045 European American individuals. PMID:19952140

A Practical Methodology for Quantifying Random and Systematic Components of Unexplained Variance in a Wind Tunnel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deloach, Richard; Obara, Clifford J.; Goodman, Wesley L.

2012-01-01

This paper documents a check standard wind tunnel test conducted in the Langley 0.3-Meter Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel (0.3M TCT) that was designed and analyzed using the Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE). The test designed to partition the unexplained variance of typical wind tunnel data samples into two constituent components, one attributable to ordinary random error, and one attributable to systematic error induced by covariate effects. Covariate effects in wind tunnel testing are discussed, with examples. The impact of systematic (non-random) unexplained variance on the statistical independence of sequential measurements is reviewed. The corresponding correlation among experimental errors is discussed, as is the impact of such correlation on experimental results generally. The specific experiment documented herein was organized as a formal test for the presence of unexplained variance in representative samples of wind tunnel data, in order to quantify the frequency with which such systematic error was detected, and its magnitude relative to ordinary random error. Levels of systematic and random error reported here are representative of those quantified in other facilities, as cited in the references.

Precision, Reliability, and Effect Size of Slope Variance in Latent Growth Curve Models: Implications for Statistical Power Analysis

PubMed Central

Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lindenberger, Ulman; Hertzog, Christopher

2018-01-01

Latent Growth Curve Models (LGCM) have become a standard technique to model change over time. Prediction and explanation of inter-individual differences in change are major goals in lifespan research. The major determinants of statistical power to detect individual differences in change are the magnitude of true inter-individual differences in linear change (LGCM slope variance), design precision, alpha level, and sample size. Here, we show that design precision can be expressed as the inverse of effective error. Effective error is determined by instrument reliability and the temporal arrangement of measurement occasions. However, it also depends on another central LGCM component, the variance of the latent intercept and its covariance with the latent slope. We derive a new reliability index for LGCM slope variance—effective curve reliability (ECR)—by scaling slope variance against effective error. ECR is interpretable as a standardized effect size index. We demonstrate how effective error, ECR, and statistical power for a likelihood ratio test of zero slope variance formally relate to each other and how they function as indices of statistical power. We also provide a computational approach to derive ECR for arbitrary intercept-slope covariance. With practical use cases, we argue for the complementary utility of the proposed indices of a study's sensitivity to detect slope variance when making a priori longitudinal design decisions or communicating study designs. PMID:29755377

Incorporating GIS and remote sensing for census population disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuo-Sheng'derek'

Census data are the primary source of demographic data for a variety of researches and applications. For confidentiality issues and administrative purposes, census data are usually released to the public by aggregated areal units. In the United States, the smallest census unit is census blocks. Due to data aggregation, users of census data may have problems in visualizing population distribution within census blocks and estimating population counts for areas not coinciding with census block boundaries. The main purpose of this study is to develop methodology for estimating sub-block areal populations and assessing the estimation errors. The City of Austin, Texas was used as a case study area. Based on tax parcel boundaries and parcel attributes derived from ancillary GIS and remote sensing data, detailed urban land use classes were first classified using a per-field approach. After that, statistical models by land use classes were built to infer population density from other predictor variables, including four census demographic statistics (the Hispanic percentage, the married percentage, the unemployment rate, and per capita income) and three physical variables derived from remote sensing images and building footprints vector data (a landscape heterogeneity statistics, a building pattern statistics, and a building volume statistics). In addition to statistical models, deterministic models were proposed to directly infer populations from building volumes and three housing statistics, including the average space per housing unit, the housing unit occupancy rate, and the average household size. After population models were derived or proposed, how well the models predict populations for another set of sample blocks was assessed. The results show that deterministic models were more accurate than statistical models. Further, by simulating the base unit for modeling from aggregating blocks, I assessed how well the deterministic models estimate sub-unit-level populations. I also assessed the aggregation effects and the resealing effects on sub-unit estimates. Lastly, from another set of mixed-land-use sample blocks, a mixed-land-use model was derived and compared with a residential-land-use model. The results of per-field land use classification are satisfactory with a Kappa accuracy statistics of 0.747. Model Assessments by land use show that population estimates for multi-family land use areas have higher errors than those for single-family land use areas, and population estimates for mixed land use areas have higher errors than those for residential land use areas. The assessments of sub-unit estimates using a simulation approach indicate that smaller areas show higher estimation errors, estimation errors do not relate to the base unit size, and resealing improves all levels of sub-unit estimates.

The Impact of Subsampling on MODIS Level-3 Statistics of Cloud Optical Thickness and Effective Radius

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, Lazaros

2004-01-01

The MODIS Level-3 optical thickness and effective radius cloud product is a gridded l deg. x 1 deg. dataset that is derived from aggregation and subsampling at 5 km of 1 km, resolution Level-2 orbital swath data (Level-2 granules). This study examines the impact of the 5 km subsampling on the mean, standard deviation and inhomogeneity parameter statistics of optical thickness and effective radius. The methodology is simple and consists of estimating mean errors for a large collection of Terra and Aqua Level-2 granules by taking the difference of the statistics at the original and subsampled resolutions. It is shown that the Level-3 sampling does not affect the various quantities investigated to the same degree, with second order moments suffering greater subsampling errors, as expected. Mean errors drop dramatically when averages over a sufficient number of regions (e.g., monthly and/or latitudinal averages) are taken, pointing to a dominance of errors that are of random nature. When histograms built from subsampled data with the same binning rules as in the Level-3 dataset are used to reconstruct the quantities of interest, the mean errors do not deteriorate significantly. The results in this paper provide guidance to users of MODIS Level-3 optical thickness and effective radius cloud products on the range of errors due to subsampling they should expect and perhaps account for, in scientific work with this dataset. In general, subsampling errors should not be a serious concern when moderate temporal and/or spatial averaging is performed.

Measurement uncertainty associated with chromatic confocal profilometry for 3D surface texture characterization of natural human enamel.

PubMed

Mullan, F; Bartlett, D; Austin, R S

2017-06-01

To investigate the measurement performance of a chromatic confocal profilometer for quantification of surface texture of natural human enamel in vitro. Contributions to the measurement uncertainty from all potential sources of measurement error using a chromatic confocal profilometer and surface metrology software were quantified using a series of surface metrology calibration artifacts and pre-worn enamel samples. The 3D surface texture analysis protocol was optimized across 0.04mm 2 of natural and unpolished enamel undergoing dietary acid erosion (pH 3.2, titratable acidity 41.3mmolOH/L). Flatness deviations due to the x, y stage mechanical movement were the major contribution to the measurement uncertainty; with maximum Sz flatness errors of 0.49μm. Whereas measurement noise; non-linearity's in x, y, z and enamel sample dimensional instability contributed minimal errors. The measurement errors were propagated into an uncertainty budget following a Type B uncertainty evaluation in order to calculate the Standard Combined Uncertainty (u c ), which was ±0.28μm. Statistically significant increases in the median (IQR) roughness (Sa) of the polished samples occurred after 15 (+0.17 (0.13)μm), 30 (+0.12 (0.09)μm) and 45 (+0.18 (0.15)μm) min of erosion (P<0.001 vs. baseline). In contrast, natural unpolished enamel samples revealed a statistically significant decrease in Sa roughness of -0.14 (0.34) μm only after 45min erosion (P<0.05s vs. baseline). The main contribution to measurement uncertainty using chromatic confocal profilometry was from flatness deviations however by optimizing measurement protocols the profilometer successfully characterized surface texture changes in enamel from erosive wear in vitro. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. All rights reserved.

On the assessment of the added value of new predictive biomarkers.

PubMed

Chen, Weijie; Samuelson, Frank W; Gallas, Brandon D; Kang, Le; Sahiner, Berkman; Petrick, Nicholas

2013-07-29

The surge in biomarker development calls for research on statistical evaluation methodology to rigorously assess emerging biomarkers and classification models. Recently, several authors reported the puzzling observation that, in assessing the added value of new biomarkers to existing ones in a logistic regression model, statistical significance of new predictor variables does not necessarily translate into a statistically significant increase in the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Vickers et al. concluded that this inconsistency is because AUC "has vastly inferior statistical properties," i.e., it is extremely conservative. This statement is based on simulations that misuse the DeLong et al. method. Our purpose is to provide a fair comparison of the likelihood ratio (LR) test and the Wald test versus diagnostic accuracy (AUC) tests. We present a test to compare ideal AUCs of nested linear discriminant functions via an F test. We compare it with the LR test and the Wald test for the logistic regression model. The null hypotheses of these three tests are equivalent; however, the F test is an exact test whereas the LR test and the Wald test are asymptotic tests. Our simulation shows that the F test has the nominal type I error even with a small sample size. Our results also indicate that the LR test and the Wald test have inflated type I errors when the sample size is small, while the type I error converges to the nominal value asymptotically with increasing sample size as expected. We further show that the DeLong et al. method tests a different hypothesis and has the nominal type I error when it is used within its designed scope. Finally, we summarize the pros and cons of all four methods we consider in this paper. We show that there is nothing inherently less powerful or disagreeable about ROC analysis for showing the usefulness of new biomarkers or characterizing the performance of classification models. Each statistical method for assessing biomarkers and classification models has its own strengths and weaknesses. Investigators need to choose methods based on the assessment purpose, the biomarker development phase at which the assessment is being performed, the available patient data, and the validity of assumptions behind the methodologies.

Estimations of ABL fluxes and other turbulence parameters from Doppler lidar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gal-Chen, Tzvi; Xu, Mei; Eberhard, Wynn

1989-01-01

Techniques for extraction boundary layer parameters from measurements of a short-pulse CO2 Doppler lidar are described. The measurements are those collected during the First International Satellites Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE). By continuously operating the lidar for about an hour, stable statistics of the radial velocities can be extracted. Assuming that the turbulence is horizontally homogeneous, the mean wind, its standard deviations, and the momentum fluxes were estimated. Spectral analysis of the radial velocities is also performed from which, by examining the amplitude of the power spectrum at the inertial range, the kinetic energy dissipation was deduced. Finally, using the statistical form of the Navier-Stokes equations, the surface heat flux is derived as the residual balance between the vertical gradient of the third moment of the vertical velocity and the kinetic energy dissipation. Combining many measurements would normally reduce the error provided that, it is unbiased and uncorrelated. The nature of some of the algorithms however, is such that, biased and correlated errors may be generated even though the raw measurements are not. Data processing procedures were developed that eliminate bias and minimize error correlation. Once bias and error correlations are accounted for, the large sample size is shown to reduce the errors substantially. The principal features of the derived turbulence statistics for two case studied are presented.

Performance prediction of a synchronization link for distributed aerospace wireless systems.

PubMed

Wang, Wen-Qin; Shao, Huaizong

2013-01-01

For reasons of stealth and other operational advantages, distributed aerospace wireless systems have received much attention in recent years. In a distributed aerospace wireless system, since the transmitter and receiver placed on separated platforms which use independent master oscillators, there is no cancellation of low-frequency phase noise as in the monostatic cases. Thus, high accurate time and frequency synchronization techniques are required for distributed wireless systems. The use of a dedicated synchronization link to quantify and compensate oscillator frequency instability is investigated in this paper. With the mathematical statistical models of phase noise, closed-form analytic expressions for the synchronization link performance are derived. The possible error contributions including oscillator, phase-locked loop, and receiver noise are quantified. The link synchronization performance is predicted by utilizing the knowledge of the statistical models, system error contributions, and sampling considerations. Simulation results show that effective synchronization error compensation can be achieved by using this dedicated synchronization link.

Valid statistical inference methods for a case-control study with missing data.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Zhang, Chi; Jiang, Xuejun

2018-04-01

The main objective of this paper is to derive the valid sampling distribution of the observed counts in a case-control study with missing data under the assumption of missing at random by employing the conditional sampling method and the mechanism augmentation method. The proposed sampling distribution, called the case-control sampling distribution, can be used to calculate the standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates of parameters via the Fisher information matrix and to generate independent samples for constructing small-sample bootstrap confidence intervals. Theoretical comparisons of the new case-control sampling distribution with two existing sampling distributions exhibit a large difference. Simulations are conducted to investigate the influence of the three different sampling distributions on statistical inferences. One finding is that the conclusion by the Wald test for testing independency under the two existing sampling distributions could be completely different (even contradictory) from the Wald test for testing the equality of the success probabilities in control/case groups under the proposed distribution. A real cervical cancer data set is used to illustrate the proposed statistical methods.

Catastrophic photometric redshift errors: Weak-lensing survey requirements

DOE PAGES

Bernstein, Gary; Huterer, Dragan

2010-01-11

We study the sensitivity of weak lensing surveys to the effects of catastrophic redshift errors - cases where the true redshift is misestimated by a significant amount. To compute the biases in cosmological parameters, we adopt an efficient linearized analysis where the redshift errors are directly related to shifts in the weak lensing convergence power spectra. We estimate the number N spec of unbiased spectroscopic redshifts needed to determine the catastrophic error rate well enough that biases in cosmological parameters are below statistical errors of weak lensing tomography. While the straightforward estimate of N spec is ~10 6 we findmore » that using only the photometric redshifts with z ≤ 2.5 leads to a drastic reduction in N spec to ~ 30,000 while negligibly increasing statistical errors in dark energy parameters. Therefore, the size of spectroscopic survey needed to control catastrophic errors is similar to that previously deemed necessary to constrain the core of the z s – z p distribution. We also study the efficacy of the recent proposal to measure redshift errors by cross-correlation between the photo-z and spectroscopic samples. We find that this method requires ~ 10% a priori knowledge of the bias and stochasticity of the outlier population, and is also easily confounded by lensing magnification bias. In conclusion, the cross-correlation method is therefore unlikely to supplant the need for a complete spectroscopic redshift survey of the source population.« less

Learning from Past Classification Errors: Exploring Methods for Improving the Performance of a Deep Learning-based Building Extraction Model through Quantitative Analysis of Commission Errors for Optimal Sample Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swan, B.; Laverdiere, M.; Yang, L.

2017-12-01

In the past five years, deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) have been increasingly favored for computer vision applications due to their high accuracy and ability to generalize well in very complex problems; however, details of how they function and in turn how they may be optimized are still imperfectly understood. In particular, their complex and highly nonlinear network architecture, including many hidden layers and self-learned parameters, as well as their mathematical implications, presents open questions about how to effectively select training data. Without knowledge of the exact ways the model processes and transforms its inputs, intuition alone may fail as a guide to selecting highly relevant training samples. Working in the context of improving a CNN-based building extraction model used for the LandScan USA gridded population dataset, we have approached this problem by developing a semi-supervised, highly-scalable approach to select training samples from a dataset of identified commission errors. Due to the large scope this project, tens of thousands of potential samples could be derived from identified commission errors. To efficiently trim those samples down to a manageable and effective set for creating additional training sample, we statistically summarized the spectral characteristics of areas with rates of commission errors at the image tile level and grouped these tiles using affinity propagation. Highly representative members of each commission error cluster were then used to select sites for training sample creation. The model will be incrementally re-trained with the new training data to allow for an assessment of how the addition of different types of samples affects the model performance, such as precision and recall rates. By using quantitative analysis and data clustering techniques to select highly relevant training samples, we hope to improve model performance in a manner that is resource efficient, both in terms of training process and in sample creation.

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models

PubMed Central

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research. PMID:26579002

Comparing interval estimates for small sample ordinal CFA models.

PubMed

Natesan, Prathiba

2015-01-01

Robust maximum likelihood (RML) and asymptotically generalized least squares (AGLS) methods have been recommended for fitting ordinal structural equation models. Studies show that some of these methods underestimate standard errors. However, these studies have not investigated the coverage and bias of interval estimates. An estimate with a reasonable standard error could still be severely biased. This can only be known by systematically investigating the interval estimates. The present study compares Bayesian, RML, and AGLS interval estimates of factor correlations in ordinal confirmatory factor analysis models (CFA) for small sample data. Six sample sizes, 3 factor correlations, and 2 factor score distributions (multivariate normal and multivariate mildly skewed) were studied. Two Bayesian prior specifications, informative and relatively less informative were studied. Undercoverage of confidence intervals and underestimation of standard errors was common in non-Bayesian methods. Underestimated standard errors may lead to inflated Type-I error rates. Non-Bayesian intervals were more positive biased than negatively biased, that is, most intervals that did not contain the true value were greater than the true value. Some non-Bayesian methods had non-converging and inadmissible solutions for small samples and non-normal data. Bayesian empirical standard error estimates for informative and relatively less informative priors were closer to the average standard errors of the estimates. The coverage of Bayesian credibility intervals was closer to what was expected with overcoverage in a few cases. Although some Bayesian credibility intervals were wider, they reflected the nature of statistical uncertainty that comes with the data (e.g., small sample). Bayesian point estimates were also more accurate than non-Bayesian estimates. The results illustrate the importance of analyzing coverage and bias of interval estimates, and how ignoring interval estimates can be misleading. Therefore, editors and policymakers should continue to emphasize the inclusion of interval estimates in research.

Sample size determination in combinatorial chemistry.

PubMed Central

Zhao, P L; Zambias, R; Bolognese, J A; Boulton, D; Chapman, K

1995-01-01

Combinatorial chemistry is gaining wide appeal as a technique for generating molecular diversity. Among the many combinatorial protocols, the split/recombine method is quite popular and particularly efficient at generating large libraries of compounds. In this process, polymer beads are equally divided into a series of pools and each pool is treated with a unique fragment; then the beads are recombined, mixed to uniformity, and redivided equally into a new series of pools for the subsequent couplings. The deviation from the ideal equimolar distribution of the final products is assessed by a special overall relative error, which is shown to be related to the Pearson statistic. Although the split/recombine sampling scheme is quite different from those used in analysis of categorical data, the Pearson statistic is shown to still follow a chi2 distribution. This result allows us to derive the required number of beads such that, with 99% confidence, the overall relative error is controlled to be less than a pregiven tolerable limit L1. In this paper, we also discuss another criterion, which determines the required number of beads so that, with 99% confidence, all individual relative errors are controlled to be less than a pregiven tolerable limit L2 (0 < L2 < 1). PMID:11607586

Fission cross section of 239Th and 232Th relative to 235U

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meadows, J. W.

1979-01-01

The fission cross sections of /sup 230/Th and /sup 232/Th were measured relative to /sup 235/U from near threshold to near 10 MeV. The weights of the thorium samples were determined by isotopic dilution. The weight of the uranium deposit was based on specific activity measurements of a /sup 234/U-/sup 235/U mixture and low geometry alpha counting. Corrections were made for thermal background, loss of fragments in the deposits, neutron scattering in the detector assembly, sample geometry, sample composition and the spectrum of the neutron source. Generally the systematic errors were approx. 1%. The combined systematic and statistical errors weremore » typically 1.5%. 17 references.« less

Potential, velocity, and density fields from sparse and noisy redshift-distance samples - Method

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dekel, Avishai; Bertschinger, Edmund; Faber, Sandra M.

1990-01-01

A method for recovering the three-dimensional potential, velocity, and density fields from large-scale redshift-distance samples is described. Galaxies are taken as tracers of the velocity field, not of the mass. The density field and the initial conditions are calculated using an iterative procedure that applies the no-vorticity assumption at an initial time and uses the Zel'dovich approximation to relate initial and final positions of particles on a grid. The method is tested using a cosmological N-body simulation 'observed' at the positions of real galaxies in a redshift-distance sample, taking into account their distance measurement errors. Malmquist bias and other systematic and statistical errors are extensively explored using both analytical techniques and Monte Carlo simulations.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Measurement Error. Potential Effect on Clinical Study Results

PubMed Central

Cooke, Colin R.; Iwashyna, Theodore J.; Hofer, Timothy P.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Identifying patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a recognized challenge. Experts often have only moderate agreement when applying the clinical definition of ARDS to patients. However, no study has fully examined the implications of low reliability measurement of ARDS on clinical studies. Objectives: To investigate how the degree of variability in ARDS measurement commonly reported in clinical studies affects study power, the accuracy of treatment effect estimates, and the measured strength of risk factor associations. Methods: We examined the effect of ARDS measurement error in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of ARDS-specific treatments and cohort studies using simulations. We varied the reliability of ARDS diagnosis, quantified as the interobserver reliability (κ-statistic) between two reviewers. In RCT simulations, patients identified as having ARDS were enrolled, and when measurement error was present, patients without ARDS could be enrolled. In cohort studies, risk factors as potential predictors were analyzed using reviewer-identified ARDS as the outcome variable. Measurements and Main Results: Lower reliability measurement of ARDS during patient enrollment in RCTs seriously degraded study power. Holding effect size constant, the sample size necessary to attain adequate statistical power increased by more than 50% as reliability declined, although the result was sensitive to ARDS prevalence. In a 1,400-patient clinical trial, the sample size necessary to maintain similar statistical power increased to over 1,900 when reliability declined from perfect to substantial (κ = 0.72). Lower reliability measurement diminished the apparent effectiveness of an ARDS-specific treatment from a 15.2% (95% confidence interval, 9.4–20.9%) absolute risk reduction in mortality to 10.9% (95% confidence interval, 4.7–16.2%) when reliability declined to moderate (κ = 0.51). In cohort studies, the effect on risk factor associations was similar. Conclusions: ARDS measurement error can seriously degrade statistical power and effect size estimates of clinical studies. The reliability of ARDS measurement warrants careful attention in future ARDS clinical studies. PMID:27159648

TECHNICAL ADVANCES: Effects of genotyping protocols on success and errors in identifying individual river otters (Lontra canadensis) from their faeces.

PubMed

Hansen, Heidi; Ben-David, Merav; McDonald, David B

2008-03-01

In noninvasive genetic sampling, when genotyping error rates are high and recapture rates are low, misidentification of individuals can lead to overestimation of population size. Thus, estimating genotyping errors is imperative. Nonetheless, conducting multiple polymerase chain reactions (PCRs) at multiple loci is time-consuming and costly. To address the controversy regarding the minimum number of PCRs required for obtaining a consensus genotype, we compared consumer-style the performance of two genotyping protocols (multiple-tubes and 'comparative method') in respect to genotyping success and error rates. Our results from 48 faecal samples of river otters (Lontra canadensis) collected in Wyoming in 2003, and from blood samples of five captive river otters amplified with four different primers, suggest that use of the comparative genotyping protocol can minimize the number of PCRs per locus. For all but five samples at one locus, the same consensus genotypes were reached with fewer PCRs and with reduced error rates with this protocol compared to the multiple-tubes method. This finding is reassuring because genotyping errors can occur at relatively high rates even in tissues such as blood and hair. In addition, we found that loci that amplify readily and yield consensus genotypes, may still exhibit high error rates (7-32%) and that amplification with different primers resulted in different types and rates of error. Thus, assigning a genotype based on a single PCR for several loci could result in misidentification of individuals. We recommend that programs designed to statistically assign consensus genotypes should be modified to allow the different treatment of heterozygotes and homozygotes intrinsic to the comparative method. © 2007 The Authors.

Statistical Hypothesis Testing in Intraspecific Phylogeography: NCPA versus ABC

PubMed Central

Templeton, Alan R.

2009-01-01

Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been used to test phylogeographic hypotheses. Multilocus NCPA tests null hypotheses, whereas ABC discriminates among a finite set of alternatives. The interpretive criteria of NCPA are explicit and allow complex models to be built from simple components. The interpretive criteria of ABC are ad hoc and require the specification of a complete phylogeographic model. The conclusions from ABC are often influenced by implicit assumptions arising from the many parameters needed to specify a complex model. These complex models confound many assumptions so that biological interpretations are difficult. Sampling error is accounted for in NCPA, but ABC ignores important sources of sampling error that creates pseudo-statistical power. NCPA generates the full sampling distribution of its statistics, but ABC only yields local probabilities, which in turn make it impossible to distinguish between a good fitting model, a non-informative model, and an over-determined model. Both NCPA and ABC use approximations, but convergences of the approximations used in NCPA are well defined whereas those in ABC are not. NCPA can analyze a large number of locations, but ABC cannot. Finally, the dimensionality of tested hypothesis is known in NCPA, but not for ABC. As a consequence, the “probabilities” generated by ABC are not true probabilities and are statistically non-interpretable. Accordingly, ABC should not be used for hypothesis testing, but simulation approaches are valuable when used in conjunction with NCPA or other methods that do not rely on highly parameterized models. PMID:19192182

A video multitracking system for quantification of individual behavior in a large fish shoal: advantages and limits.

PubMed

Delcourt, Johann; Becco, Christophe; Vandewalle, Nicolas; Poncin, Pascal

2009-02-01

The capability of a new multitracking system to track a large number of unmarked fish (up to 100) is evaluated. This system extrapolates a trajectory from each individual and analyzes recorded sequences that are several minutes long. This system is very efficient in statistical individual tracking, where the individual's identity is important for a short period of time in comparison with the duration of the track. Individual identification is typically greater than 99%. Identification is largely efficient (more than 99%) when the fish images do not cross the image of a neighbor fish. When the images of two fish merge (occlusion), we consider that the spot on the screen has a double identity. Consequently, there are no identification errors during occlusions, even though the measurement of the positions of each individual is imprecise. When the images of these two merged fish separate (separation), individual identification errors are more frequent, but their effect is very low in statistical individual tracking. On the other hand, in complete individual tracking, where individual fish identity is important for the entire trajectory, each identification error invalidates the results. In such cases, the experimenter must observe whether the program assigns the correct identification, and, when an error is made, must edit the results. This work is not too costly in time because it is limited to the separation events, accounting for fewer than 0.1% of individual identifications. Consequently, in both statistical and rigorous individual tracking, this system allows the experimenter to gain time by measuring the individual position automatically. It can also analyze the structural and dynamic properties of an animal group with a very large sample, with precision and sampling that are impossible to obtain with manual measures.

Sampling Analysis of Aerosol Retrievals by Single-track Spaceborne Instrument for Climate Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geogdzhayev, I. V.; Cairns, B.; Alexandrov, M. D.; Mishchenko, M. I.

2012-12-01

We examine to what extent the reduced sampling of along-track instruments such as Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarisation (CALIOP) and Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) affects the statistical accuracy of a satellite climatology of retrieved aerosol optical thickness (AOT) by sub-sampling the retrievals from a wide-swath imaging instrument (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Owing to its global coverage, longevity, and extensive characterization versus ground based data, the MODIS level-2 aerosol product is an instructive testbed for assessing sampling effects on climatic means derived from along-track instrument data. The advantage of using daily pixel-level aerosol retrievals from MODIS is that limitations caused by the presence of clouds are implicit in the sample, so that their seasonal and regional variations are captured coherently. However, imager data can exhibit cross-track variability of monthly global mean AOTs caused by a scattering-angle dependence. We found that single along-track values can deviate from the imager mean by 15% over land and by more than 20% over ocean. This makes it difficult to separate natural variability from viewing-geometry artifacts complicating direct comparisons of an along-track sub-sample with the full imager data. To work around this problem, we introduce "flipped-track" sampling which, by design, is statistically equivalent to along-track sampling and while closely approximating the imager in terms of angular artifacts. We show that the flipped-track variability of global monthly mean AOT is much smaller than the cross-track one for the 7-year period considered. Over the ocean flipped-track standard error is 85% less than the cross-track one (absolute values 0.0012 versus 0.0079), and over land it is about one third of the cross-track value (0.0054 versus 0.0188) on average. This allows us to attribute the difference between the two errors to the viewing-geometry artifacts and obtain an upper limit on AOT errors caused by along-track sampling. Our results show that using along-track subsets of MODIS aerosol data directly to analyze the sampling adequacy of single-track instruments can lead to false conclusions owing to the apparent enhancement of natural aerosol variability by the track-to-track artifacts. The analysis based on the statistics of the flipped-track means yields better estimates because it allows for better separation of the viewing-geometry artifacts and true natural variability. Published assessments estimate that a global AOT change of 0.01 would yield a climatically important flux change of 0.25 W/m2. Since the standard error estimates that we have obtained are comfortably below 0.01, we conclude that along-track instruments flown on a sun-synchronous orbiting platform have sufficient spatial sampling for estimating aerosol effects on climate. Since AOT is believed to be the most variable characteristic of tropospheric aerosols, our results imply that pixel-wide along-track coverage also provides adequate statistical representation of the global distribution of aerosol microphysical parameters.

The theory precision analyse of RFM localization of satellite remote sensing imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Jianqing; Xv, Biao

2009-11-01

The tradition method of detecting precision of Rational Function Model(RFM) is to make use of a great deal check points, and it calculates mean square error through comparing calculational coordinate with known coordinate. This method is from theory of probability, through a large number of samples to statistic estimate value of mean square error, we can think its estimate value approaches in its true when samples are well enough. This paper is from angle of survey adjustment, take law of propagation of error as the theory basis, and it calculates theory precision of RFM localization. Then take the SPOT5 three array imagery as experiment data, and the result of traditional method and narrated method in the paper are compared, while has confirmed tradition method feasible, and answered its theory precision question from the angle of survey adjustment.

Statistical theory and methodology for remote sensing data analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Odell, P. L.

1974-01-01

A model is developed for the evaluation of acreages (proportions) of different crop-types over a geographical area using a classification approach and methods for estimating the crop acreages are given. In estimating the acreages of a specific croptype such as wheat, it is suggested to treat the problem as a two-crop problem: wheat vs. nonwheat, since this simplifies the estimation problem considerably. The error analysis and the sample size problem is investigated for the two-crop approach. Certain numerical results for sample sizes are given for a JSC-ERTS-1 data example on wheat identification performance in Hill County, Montana and Burke County, North Dakota. Lastly, for a large area crop acreages inventory a sampling scheme is suggested for acquiring sample data and the problem of crop acreage estimation and the error analysis is discussed.

Variance of discharge estimates sampled using acoustic Doppler current profilers from moving boats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Garcia, Carlos M.; Tarrab, Leticia; Oberg, Kevin; Szupiany, Ricardo; Cantero, Mariano I.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a model for quantifying the random errors (i.e., variance) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving boats for different sampling times. The model focuses on the random processes in the sampled flow field and has been developed using statistical methods currently available for uncertainty analysis of velocity time series. Analysis of field data collected using ADCP from moving boats from three natural rivers of varying sizes and flow conditions shows that, even though the estimate of the integral time scale of the actual turbulent flow field is larger than the sampling interval, the integral time scale of the sampled flow field is on the order of the sampling interval. Thus, an equation for computing the variance error in discharge measurements associated with different sampling times, assuming uncorrelated flow fields is appropriate. The approach is used to help define optimal sampling strategies by choosing the exposure time required for ADCPs to accurately measure flow discharge.

Analysis of Statistical Methods and Errors in the Articles Published in the Korean Journal of Pain

PubMed Central

Yim, Kyoung Hoon; Han, Kyoung Ah; Park, Soo Young

2010-01-01

Background Statistical analysis is essential in regard to obtaining objective reliability for medical research. However, medical researchers do not have enough statistical knowledge to properly analyze their study data. To help understand and potentially alleviate this problem, we have analyzed the statistical methods and errors of articles published in the Korean Journal of Pain (KJP), with the intention to improve the statistical quality of the journal. Methods All the articles, except case reports and editorials, published from 2004 to 2008 in the KJP were reviewed. The types of applied statistical methods and errors in the articles were evaluated. Results One hundred and thirty-nine original articles were reviewed. Inferential statistics and descriptive statistics were used in 119 papers and 20 papers, respectively. Only 20.9% of the papers were free from statistical errors. The most commonly adopted statistical method was the t-test (21.0%) followed by the chi-square test (15.9%). Errors of omission were encountered 101 times in 70 papers. Among the errors of omission, "no statistics used even though statistical methods were required" was the most common (40.6%). The errors of commission were encountered 165 times in 86 papers, among which "parametric inference for nonparametric data" was the most common (33.9%). Conclusions We found various types of statistical errors in the articles published in the KJP. This suggests that meticulous attention should be given not only in the applying statistical procedures but also in the reviewing process to improve the value of the article. PMID:20552071

Error correction and diversity analysis of population mixtures determined by NGS

PubMed Central

Burroughs, Nigel J.; Evans, David J.; Ryabov, Eugene V.

2014-01-01

The impetus for this work was the need to analyse nucleotide diversity in a viral mix taken from honeybees. The paper has two findings. First, a method for correction of next generation sequencing error in the distribution of nucleotides at a site is developed. Second, a package of methods for assessment of nucleotide diversity is assembled. The error correction method is statistically based and works at the level of the nucleotide distribution rather than the level of individual nucleotides. The method relies on an error model and a sample of known viral genotypes that is used for model calibration. A compendium of existing and new diversity analysis tools is also presented, allowing hypotheses about diversity and mean diversity to be tested and associated confidence intervals to be calculated. The methods are illustrated using honeybee viral samples. Software in both Excel and Matlab and a guide are available at http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/systemsbiology/research/software/, the Warwick University Systems Biology Centre software download site. PMID:25405074

Effects of Simplifying Choice Tasks on Estimates of Taste Heterogeneity in Stated-Choice Surveys

PubMed Central

Johnson, F. Reed; Ozdemir, Semra; Phillips, Kathryn A

2011-01-01

Researchers usually employ orthogonal arrays or D-optimal designs with little or no attribute overlap in stated-choice surveys. The challenge is to balance statistical efficiency and respondent burden to minimize the overall error in the survey responses. This study examined whether simplifying the choice task, by using a design with more overlap, provides advantages over standard minimum-overlap methods. We administered two designs for eliciting HIV test preferences to split samples. Surveys were undertaken at four HIV testing locations in San Francisco, California. Personal characteristics had different effects on willingness to pay for the two treatments, and gains in statistical efficiency in the minimal-overlap version more than compensated for possible imprecision from increased measurement error. PMID:19880234

Biostatistical analysis of quantitative immunofluorescence microscopy images.

PubMed

Giles, C; Albrecht, M A; Lam, V; Takechi, R; Mamo, J C

2016-12-01

Semiquantitative immunofluorescence microscopy has become a key methodology in biomedical research. Typical statistical workflows are considered in the context of avoiding pseudo-replication and marginalising experimental error. However, immunofluorescence microscopy naturally generates hierarchically structured data that can be leveraged to improve statistical power and enrich biological interpretation. Herein, we describe a robust distribution fitting procedure and compare several statistical tests, outlining their potential advantages/disadvantages in the context of biological interpretation. Further, we describe tractable procedures for power analysis that incorporates the underlying distribution, sample size and number of images captured per sample. The procedures outlined have significant potential for increasing understanding of biological processes and decreasing both ethical and financial burden through experimental optimization. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2016 Royal Microscopical Society.

Weighting by Inverse Variance or by Sample Size in Random-Effects Meta-Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marin-Martinez, Fulgencio; Sanchez-Meca, Julio

2010-01-01

Most of the statistical procedures in meta-analysis are based on the estimation of average effect sizes from a set of primary studies. The optimal weight for averaging a set of independent effect sizes is the inverse variance of each effect size, but in practice these weights have to be estimated, being affected by sampling error. When assuming a…

A Non-Intrusive Algorithm for Sensitivity Analysis of Chaotic Flow Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blonigan, Patrick J.; Wang, Qiqi; Nielsen, Eric J.; Diskin, Boris

2017-01-01

We demonstrate a novel algorithm for computing the sensitivity of statistics in chaotic flow simulations to parameter perturbations. The algorithm is non-intrusive but requires exposing an interface. Based on the principle of shadowing in dynamical systems, this algorithm is designed to reduce the effect of the sampling error in computing sensitivity of statistics in chaotic simulations. We compare the effectiveness of this method to that of the conventional finite difference method.

Practical continuous-variable quantum key distribution without finite sampling bandwidth effects.

PubMed

Li, Huasheng; Wang, Chao; Huang, Peng; Huang, Duan; Wang, Tao; Zeng, Guihua

2016-09-05

In a practical continuous-variable quantum key distribution system, finite sampling bandwidth of the employed analog-to-digital converter at the receiver's side may lead to inaccurate results of pulse peak sampling. Then, errors in the parameters estimation resulted. Subsequently, the system performance decreases and security loopholes are exposed to eavesdroppers. In this paper, we propose a novel data acquisition scheme which consists of two parts, i.e., a dynamic delay adjusting module and a statistical power feedback-control algorithm. The proposed scheme may improve dramatically the data acquisition precision of pulse peak sampling and remove the finite sampling bandwidth effects. Moreover, the optimal peak sampling position of a pulse signal can be dynamically calibrated through monitoring the change of the statistical power of the sampled data in the proposed scheme. This helps to resist against some practical attacks, such as the well-known local oscillator calibration attack.

Medication errors versus time of admission in a subpopulation of stroke patients undergoing inpatient rehabilitation complications and considerations.

PubMed

Pitts, Eric P

2011-01-01

This study looked at the medication ordering error frequency and the length of inpatient hospital stay in a subpopulation of stroke patients (n-60) as a function of time of patient admission to an inpatient rehabilitation hospital service. A total of 60 inpatient rehabilitation patients, 30 arriving before 4 pm, and 30 arriving after 4 pm, with as admitting diagnosis of stroke were randomly selected from a larger sample (N=426). There was a statistically significant increase in medication ordering errors and the number of inpatient rehabilitation hospital days in the group of patients who arrived after 4 pm.

A simple, objective analysis scheme for scatterometer data. [Seasat A satellite observation of wind over ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, G.; Brown, R. A.

1986-01-01

A simple economical objective analysis scheme is devised and tested on real scatterometer data. It is designed to treat dense data such as those of the Seasat A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) for individual or multiple passes, and preserves subsynoptic scale features. Errors are evaluated with the aid of sampling ('bootstrap') statistical methods. In addition, sensitivity tests have been performed which establish qualitative confidence in calculated fields of divergence and vorticity. The SASS wind algorithm could be improved; however, the data at this point are limited by instrument errors rather than analysis errors. The analysis error is typically negligible in comparison with the instrument error, but amounts to 30 percent of the instrument error in areas of strong wind shear. The scheme is very economical, and thus suitable for large volumes of dense data such as SASS data.

On the Calculation of Uncertainty Statistics with Error Bounds for CFD Calculations Containing Random Parameters and Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barth, Timothy J.

2016-01-01

This chapter discusses the ongoing development of combined uncertainty and error bound estimates for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations subject to imposed random parameters and random fields. An objective of this work is the construction of computable error bound formulas for output uncertainty statistics that guide CFD practitioners in systematically determining how accurately CFD realizations should be approximated and how accurately uncertainty statistics should be approximated for output quantities of interest. Formal error bounds formulas for moment statistics that properly account for the presence of numerical errors in CFD calculations and numerical quadrature errors in the calculation of moment statistics have been previously presented in [8]. In this past work, hierarchical node-nested dense and sparse tensor product quadratures are used to calculate moment statistics integrals. In the present work, a framework has been developed that exploits the hierarchical structure of these quadratures in order to simplify the calculation of an estimate of the quadrature error needed in error bound formulas. When signed estimates of realization error are available, this signed error may also be used to estimate output quantity of interest probability densities as a means to assess the impact of realization error on these density estimates. Numerical results are presented for CFD problems with uncertainty to demonstrate the capabilities of this framework.

Previous Estimates of Mitochondrial DNA Mutation Level Variance Did Not Account for Sampling Error: Comparing the mtDNA Genetic Bottleneck in Mice and Humans

PubMed Central

Wonnapinij, Passorn; Chinnery, Patrick F.; Samuels, David C.

2010-01-01

In cases of inherited pathogenic mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations, a mother and her offspring generally have large and seemingly random differences in the amount of mutated mtDNA that they carry. Comparisons of measured mtDNA mutation level variance values have become an important issue in determining the mechanisms that cause these large random shifts in mutation level. These variance measurements have been made with samples of quite modest size, which should be a source of concern because higher-order statistics, such as variance, are poorly estimated from small sample sizes. We have developed an analysis of the standard error of variance from a sample of size n, and we have defined error bars for variance measurements based on this standard error. We calculate variance error bars for several published sets of measurements of mtDNA mutation level variance and show how the addition of the error bars alters the interpretation of these experimental results. We compare variance measurements from human clinical data and from mouse models and show that the mutation level variance is clearly higher in the human data than it is in the mouse models at both the primary oocyte and offspring stages of inheritance. We discuss how the standard error of variance can be used in the design of experiments measuring mtDNA mutation level variance. Our results show that variance measurements based on fewer than 20 measurements are generally unreliable and ideally more than 50 measurements are required to reliably compare variances with less than a 2-fold difference. PMID:20362273

Uncertainty in sample estimates and the implicit loss function for soil information.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lark, Murray

2015-04-01

One significant challenge in the communication of uncertain information is how to enable the sponsors of sampling exercises to make a rational choice of sample size. One way to do this is to compute the value of additional information given the loss function for errors. The loss function expresses the costs that result from decisions made using erroneous information. In certain circumstances, such as remediation of contaminated land prior to development, loss functions can be computed and used to guide rational decision making on the amount of resource to spend on sampling to collect soil information. In many circumstances the loss function cannot be obtained prior to decision making. This may be the case when multiple decisions may be based on the soil information and the costs of errors are hard to predict. The implicit loss function is proposed as a tool to aid decision making in these circumstances. Conditional on a logistical model which expresses costs of soil sampling as a function of effort, and statistical information from which the error of estimates can be modelled as a function of effort, the implicit loss function is the loss function which makes a particular decision on effort rational. In this presentation the loss function is defined and computed for a number of arbitrary decisions on sampling effort for a hypothetical soil monitoring problem. This is based on a logistical model of sampling cost parameterized from a recent geochemical survey of soil in Donegal, Ireland and on statistical parameters estimated with the aid of a process model for change in soil organic carbon. It is shown how the implicit loss function might provide a basis for reflection on a particular choice of sample size by comparing it with the values attributed to soil properties and functions. Scope for further research to develop and apply the implicit loss function to help decision making by policy makers and regulators is then discussed.

Uses and biases of volunteer water quality data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loperfido, J.V.; Beyer, P.; Just, C.L.; Schnoor, J.L.

2010-01-01

State water quality monitoring has been augmented by volunteer monitoring programs throughout the United States. Although a significant effort has been put forth by volunteers, questions remain as to whether volunteer data are accurate and can be used by regulators. In this study, typical volunteer water quality measurements from laboratory and environmental samples in Iowa were analyzed for error and bias. Volunteer measurements of nitrate+nitrite were significantly lower (about 2-fold) than concentrations determined via standard methods in both laboratory-prepared and environmental samples. Total reactive phosphorus concentrations analyzed by volunteers were similar to measurements determined via standard methods in laboratory-prepared samples and environmental samples, but were statistically lower than the actual concentration in four of the five laboratory-prepared samples. Volunteer water quality measurements were successful in identifying and classifying most of the waters which violate United States Environmental Protection Agency recommended water quality criteria for total nitrogen (66%) and for total phosphorus (52%) with the accuracy improving when accounting for error and biases in the volunteer data. An understanding of the error and bias in volunteer water quality measurements can allow regulators to incorporate volunteer water quality data into total maximum daily load planning or state water quality reporting. ?? 2010 American Chemical Society.

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The program EPHEMS computes the orbital parameters for up to two vehicles orbiting the earth for up to 549 days. The data represents a continuous swath about the earth, producing tables which can be used to determine when and if certain land segments will be covered. The program GRID processes NASA's climatology tape to obtain the weather indices along with associated latitudes and longitudes. The program LUMP takes substrata historical data and sample segment ID, crop window, crop window error and statistical data, checks for valid input parameters and generates the segment ID file, crop window file and the substrata historical file. Finally, the System Error Executive (SEE) Program checks YES error and truth data, CAMS error data, and signature extension data for validity and missing elements. A message is printed for each error found.

Errors in statistical decision making Chapter 2 in Applied Statistics in Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Sciences

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agronomic and Environmental research experiments result in data that are analyzed using statistical methods. These data are unavoidably accompanied by uncertainty. Decisions about hypotheses, based on statistical analyses of these data are therefore subject to error. This error is of three types,...

Traditional Nurse Triage vs. Physician Tele-Presence in a Pediatric Emergency Department

PubMed Central

Marconi, Greg P.; Chang, Todd; Pham, Phung K.; Grajower, Daniel N.; Nager, Alan L.

2014-01-01

Objectives To compare traditional nurse triage (TNT) in a Pediatric Emergency Department (PED) to physician tele-presence (PTP). Methods Prospective, 2×2 crossover study with random assignment using a sample of walk-in patients seeking care in a PED at a large, tertiary care children’s hospital, from May 2012 to January 2013. Outcomes of triage times, documentation errors, triage scores, and survey responses were compared between TNT and PTP. Comparison between PTP to actual treating PED physicians regarding the accuracy of ordering blood and urine tests, throat cultures, and radiologic imaging was also studied. Results Paired samples t-tests showed a statistically significant difference in triage time between TNT and PTP (p=0.03), but no significant difference in documentation errors (p=0.10). Triage scores of TNT were 71% accurate, compared to PTP, which were 95% accurate. Both parents and children had favorable scores regarding PTP and the majority indicated they would prefer PTP again at their next PED visit. PTP diagnostic ordering was comparable to the actual PED physician ordering, showing no statistical differences. Conclusions Utilizing physician tele-presence technology to remotely perform triage is a feasible alternative to traditional nurse triage, with no clinically significant differences in time, triage scores, errors and patient and parent satisfaction. PMID:24445223

Robust functional statistics applied to Probability Density Function shape screening of sEMG data.

PubMed

Boudaoud, S; Rix, H; Al Harrach, M; Marin, F

2014-01-01

Recent studies pointed out possible shape modifications of the Probability Density Function (PDF) of surface electromyographical (sEMG) data according to several contexts like fatigue and muscle force increase. Following this idea, criteria have been proposed to monitor these shape modifications mainly using High Order Statistics (HOS) parameters like skewness and kurtosis. In experimental conditions, these parameters are confronted with small sample size in the estimation process. This small sample size induces errors in the estimated HOS parameters restraining real-time and precise sEMG PDF shape monitoring. Recently, a functional formalism, the Core Shape Model (CSM), has been used to analyse shape modifications of PDF curves. In this work, taking inspiration from CSM method, robust functional statistics are proposed to emulate both skewness and kurtosis behaviors. These functional statistics combine both kernel density estimation and PDF shape distances to evaluate shape modifications even in presence of small sample size. Then, the proposed statistics are tested, using Monte Carlo simulations, on both normal and Log-normal PDFs that mimic observed sEMG PDF shape behavior during muscle contraction. According to the obtained results, the functional statistics seem to be more robust than HOS parameters to small sample size effect and more accurate in sEMG PDF shape screening applications.

Testing for independence in J×K contingency tables with complex sample survey data.

PubMed

Lipsitz, Stuart R; Fitzmaurice, Garrett M; Sinha, Debajyoti; Hevelone, Nathanael; Giovannucci, Edward; Hu, Jim C

2015-09-01

The test of independence of row and column variables in a (J×K) contingency table is a widely used statistical test in many areas of application. For complex survey samples, use of the standard Pearson chi-squared test is inappropriate due to correlation among units within the same cluster. Rao and Scott (1981, Journal of the American Statistical Association 76, 221-230) proposed an approach in which the standard Pearson chi-squared statistic is multiplied by a design effect to adjust for the complex survey design. Unfortunately, this test fails to exist when one of the observed cell counts equals zero. Even with the large samples typical of many complex surveys, zero cell counts can occur for rare events, small domains, or contingency tables with a large number of cells. Here, we propose Wald and score test statistics for independence based on weighted least squares estimating equations. In contrast to the Rao-Scott test statistic, the proposed Wald and score test statistics always exist. In simulations, the score test is found to perform best with respect to type I error. The proposed method is motivated by, and applied to, post surgical complications data from the United States' Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) complex survey of hospitals in 2008. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Detailed Uncertainty Analysis of the ZEM-3 Measurement System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

2014-01-01

The measurement of Seebeck coefficient and electrical resistivity are critical to the investigation of all thermoelectric systems. Therefore, it stands that the measurement uncertainty must be well understood to report ZT values which are accurate and trustworthy. A detailed uncertainty analysis of the ZEM-3 measurement system has been performed. The uncertainty analysis calculates error in the electrical resistivity measurement as a result of sample geometry tolerance, probe geometry tolerance, statistical error, and multi-meter uncertainty. The uncertainty on Seebeck coefficient includes probe wire correction factors, statistical error, multi-meter uncertainty, and most importantly the cold-finger effect. The cold-finger effect plagues all potentiometric (four-probe) Seebeck measurement systems, as heat parasitically transfers through thermocouple probes. The effect leads to an asymmetric over-estimation of the Seebeck coefficient. A thermal finite element analysis allows for quantification of the phenomenon, and provides an estimate on the uncertainty of the Seebeck coefficient. The thermoelectric power factor has been found to have an uncertainty of +9-14 at high temperature and 9 near room temperature.

Performance Prediction of a Synchronization Link for Distributed Aerospace Wireless Systems

PubMed Central

Shao, Huaizong

2013-01-01

For reasons of stealth and other operational advantages, distributed aerospace wireless systems have received much attention in recent years. In a distributed aerospace wireless system, since the transmitter and receiver placed on separated platforms which use independent master oscillators, there is no cancellation of low-frequency phase noise as in the monostatic cases. Thus, high accurate time and frequency synchronization techniques are required for distributed wireless systems. The use of a dedicated synchronization link to quantify and compensate oscillator frequency instability is investigated in this paper. With the mathematical statistical models of phase noise, closed-form analytic expressions for the synchronization link performance are derived. The possible error contributions including oscillator, phase-locked loop, and receiver noise are quantified. The link synchronization performance is predicted by utilizing the knowledge of the statistical models, system error contributions, and sampling considerations. Simulation results show that effective synchronization error compensation can be achieved by using this dedicated synchronization link. PMID:23970828

Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

2012-09-01

This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

Performance metrics for the assessment of satellite data products: an ocean color case study

PubMed Central

Seegers, Bridget N.; Stumpf, Richard P.; Schaeffer, Blake A.; Loftin, Keith A.; Werdell, P. Jeremy

2018-01-01

Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r2), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multi-metric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities. PMID:29609296

The vocabulary profile of Slovak children with primary language impairment compared to typically developing Slovak children measured by LITMUS-CLT.

PubMed

Kapalková, Svetlana; Slančová, Daniela

2017-01-01

This study compared a sample of children with primary language impairment (PLI) and typically developing age-matched children using the crosslinguistic lexical tasks (CLT-SK). We also compared the PLI children with typically developing language-matched younger children who were matched on the basis of receptive vocabulary. Overall, statistical testing showed that the vocabulary of the PLI children was significantly different from the vocabulary of the age-matched children, but not statistically different from the younger children who were matched on the basis of their receptive vocabulary size. Qualitative analysis of the correct answers revealed that the PLI children showed higher rigidity compared to the younger language-matched children who are able to use more synonyms or derivations across word class in naming tasks. Similarly, an examination of the children's naming errors indicated that the language-matched children exhibited more semantic errors, whereas PLI children showed more associative errors.

Descriptive Statistical Attributes of Special Education Data Sets

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Felder, Valerie

2013-01-01

Micceri (1989) examined the distributional characteristics of 440 large-sample achievement and psychometric measures. All the distributions were found to be nonnormal at alpha = 0.01. Micceri indicated three factors that might contribute to a non-Gaussian error distribution in the population. The first factor is subpopulations within a target…

Mental Representation of Circuit Diagrams: Individual Differences in Procedural Knowledge.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-12-01

operation. One may know, for example, that a transformer serves to change the voltage of an AC supply, that a particular combination of transitors acts as a...and error measures with respect to overall performance. Even if a large 3-1-- sample could provide statistically significant differences between skill

A Comparison of Normal and Elliptical Estimation Methods in Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacker, Randall E.; Cheevatanarak, Suchittra

Monte Carlo simulation compared chi-square statistics, parameter estimates, and root mean square error of approximation values using normal and elliptical estimation methods. Three research conditions were imposed on the simulated data: sample size, population contamination percent, and kurtosis. A Bentler-Weeks structural model established the…

EvolQG - An R package for evolutionary quantitative genetics

PubMed Central

Melo, Diogo; Garcia, Guilherme; Hubbe, Alex; Assis, Ana Paula; Marroig, Gabriel

2016-01-01

We present an open source package for performing evolutionary quantitative genetics analyses in the R environment for statistical computing. Evolutionary theory shows that evolution depends critically on the available variation in a given population. When dealing with many quantitative traits this variation is expressed in the form of a covariance matrix, particularly the additive genetic covariance matrix or sometimes the phenotypic matrix, when the genetic matrix is unavailable and there is evidence the phenotypic matrix is sufficiently similar to the genetic matrix. Given this mathematical representation of available variation, the \\textbf{EvolQG} package provides functions for calculation of relevant evolutionary statistics; estimation of sampling error; corrections for this error; matrix comparison via correlations, distances and matrix decomposition; analysis of modularity patterns; and functions for testing evolutionary hypotheses on taxa diversification. PMID:27785352

Surprise responses in the human brain demonstrate statistical learning under high concurrent cognitive demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garrido, Marta Isabel; Teng, Chee Leong James; Taylor, Jeremy Alexander; Rowe, Elise Genevieve; Mattingley, Jason Brett

2016-06-01

The ability to learn about regularities in the environment and to make predictions about future events is fundamental for adaptive behaviour. We have previously shown that people can implicitly encode statistical regularities and detect violations therein, as reflected in neuronal responses to unpredictable events that carry a unique prediction error signature. In the real world, however, learning about regularities will often occur in the context of competing cognitive demands. Here we asked whether learning of statistical regularities is modulated by concurrent cognitive load. We compared electroencephalographic metrics associated with responses to pure-tone sounds with frequencies sampled from narrow or wide Gaussian distributions. We showed that outliers evoked a larger response than those in the centre of the stimulus distribution (i.e., an effect of surprise) and that this difference was greater for physically identical outliers in the narrow than in the broad distribution. These results demonstrate an early neurophysiological marker of the brain's ability to implicitly encode complex statistical structure in the environment. Moreover, we manipulated concurrent cognitive load by having participants perform a visual working memory task while listening to these streams of sounds. We again observed greater prediction error responses in the narrower distribution under both low and high cognitive load. Furthermore, there was no reliable reduction in prediction error magnitude under high-relative to low-cognitive load. Our findings suggest that statistical learning is not a capacity limited process, and that it proceeds automatically even when cognitive resources are taxed by concurrent demands.

The issue of multiple univariate comparisons in the context of neuroelectric brain mapping: an application in a neuromarketing experiment.

PubMed

Vecchiato, G; De Vico Fallani, F; Astolfi, L; Toppi, J; Cincotti, F; Mattia, D; Salinari, S; Babiloni, F

2010-08-30

This paper presents some considerations about the use of adequate statistical techniques in the framework of the neuroelectromagnetic brain mapping. With the use of advanced EEG/MEG recording setup involving hundred of sensors, the issue of the protection against the type I errors that could occur during the execution of hundred of univariate statistical tests, has gained interest. In the present experiment, we investigated the EEG signals from a mannequin acting as an experimental subject. Data have been collected while performing a neuromarketing experiment and analyzed with state of the art computational tools adopted in specialized literature. Results showed that electric data from the mannequin's head presents statistical significant differences in power spectra during the visualization of a commercial advertising when compared to the power spectra gathered during a documentary, when no adjustments were made on the alpha level of the multiple univariate tests performed. The use of the Bonferroni or Bonferroni-Holm adjustments returned correctly no differences between the signals gathered from the mannequin in the two experimental conditions. An partial sample of recently published literature on different neuroscience journals suggested that at least the 30% of the papers do not use statistical protection for the type I errors. While the occurrence of type I errors could be easily managed with appropriate statistical techniques, the use of such techniques is still not so largely adopted in the literature. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical considerations in evaluating pharmacogenomics-based clinical effect for confirmatory trials.

PubMed

Wang, Sue-Jane; O'Neill, Robert T; Hung, Hm James

2010-10-01

The current practice for seeking genomically favorable patients in randomized controlled clinical trials using genomic convenience samples. To discuss the extent of imbalance, confounding, bias, design efficiency loss, type I error, and type II error that can occur in the evaluation of the convenience samples, particularly when they are small samples. To articulate statistical considerations for a reasonable sample size to minimize the chance of imbalance, and, to highlight the importance of replicating the subgroup finding in independent studies. Four case examples reflecting recent regulatory experiences are used to underscore the problems with convenience samples. Probability of imbalance for a pre-specified subgroup is provided to elucidate sample size needed to minimize the chance of imbalance. We use an example drug development to highlight the level of scientific rigor needed, with evidence replicated for a pre-specified subgroup claim. The convenience samples evaluated ranged from 18% to 38% of the intent-to-treat samples with sample size ranging from 100 to 5000 patients per arm. The baseline imbalance can occur with probability higher than 25%. Mild to moderate multiple confounders yielding the same directional bias in favor of the treated group can make treatment group incomparable at baseline and result in a false positive conclusion that there is a treatment difference. Conversely, if the same directional bias favors the placebo group or there is loss in design efficiency, the type II error can increase substantially. Pre-specification of a genomic subgroup hypothesis is useful only for some degree of type I error control. Complete ascertainment of genomic samples in a randomized controlled trial should be the first step to explore if a favorable genomic patient subgroup suggests a treatment effect when there is no clear prior knowledge and understanding about how the mechanism of a drug target affects the clinical outcome of interest. When stratified randomization based on genomic biomarker status cannot be implemented in designing a pharmacogenomics confirmatory clinical trial, if there is one genomic biomarker prognostic for clinical response, as a general rule of thumb, a sample size of at least 100 patients may be needed to be considered for the lower prevalence genomic subgroup to minimize the chance of an imbalance of 20% or more difference in the prevalence of the genomic marker. The sample size may need to be at least 150, 350, and 1350, respectively, if an imbalance of 15%, 10% and 5% difference is of concern.

Atmospheric Tracer Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasibhatla, P.

2004-12-01

In recent years, there has been an increasing emphasis on the use of Bayesian statistical estimation techniques to characterize the temporal and spatial variability of atmospheric trace gas sources and sinks. The applications have been varied in terms of the particular species of interest, as well as in terms of the spatial and temporal resolution of the estimated fluxes. However, one common characteristic has been the use of relatively simple statistical models for describing the measurement and chemical transport model error statistics and prior source statistics. For example, multivariate normal probability distribution functions (pdfs) are commonly used to model these quantities and inverse source estimates are derived for fixed values of pdf paramaters. While the advantage of this approach is that closed form analytical solutions for the a posteriori pdfs of interest are available, it is worth exploring Bayesian analysis approaches which allow for a more general treatment of error and prior source statistics. Here, we present an application of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to an atmospheric tracer inversion problem to demonstrate how more gereral statistical models for errors can be incorporated into the analysis in a relatively straightforward manner. The MCMC approach to Bayesian analysis, which has found wide application in a variety of fields, is a statistical simulation approach that involves computing moments of interest of the a posteriori pdf by efficiently sampling this pdf. The specific inverse problem that we focus on is the annual mean CO2 source/sink estimation problem considered by the TransCom3 project. TransCom3 was a collaborative effort involving various modeling groups and followed a common modeling and analysis protocoal. As such, this problem provides a convenient case study to demonstrate the applicability of the MCMC methodology to atmospheric tracer source/sink estimation problems.

Directional variance adjustment: bias reduction in covariance matrices based on factor analysis with an application to portfolio optimization.

PubMed

Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

2013-01-01

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation.

Directional Variance Adjustment: Bias Reduction in Covariance Matrices Based on Factor Analysis with an Application to Portfolio Optimization

PubMed Central

Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W.; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

2013-01-01

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation. PMID:23844016

Moments of inclination error distribution computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myler, T. R.

1981-01-01

A FORTRAN coded computer program is described which calculates orbital inclination error statistics using a closed-form solution. This solution uses a data base of trajectory errors from actual flights to predict the orbital inclination error statistics. The Scott flight history data base consists of orbit insertion errors in the trajectory parameters - altitude, velocity, flight path angle, flight azimuth, latitude and longitude. The methods used to generate the error statistics are of general interest since they have other applications. Program theory, user instructions, output definitions, subroutine descriptions and detailed FORTRAN coding information are included.

Error of the slanted edge method for measuring the modulation transfer function of imaging systems.

PubMed

Xie, Xufen; Fan, Hongda; Wang, Hongyuan; Wang, Zebin; Zou, Nianyu

2018-03-01

The slanted edge method is a basic approach for measuring the modulation transfer function (MTF) of imaging systems; however, its measurement accuracy is limited in practice. Theoretical analysis of the slanted edge MTF measurement method performed in this paper reveals that inappropriate edge angles and random noise reduce this accuracy. The error caused by edge angles is analyzed using sampling and reconstruction theory. Furthermore, an error model combining noise and edge angles is proposed. We verify the analyses and model with respect to (i) the edge angle, (ii) a statistical analysis of the measurement error, (iii) the full width at half-maximum of a point spread function, and (iv) the error model. The experimental results verify the theoretical findings. This research can be referential for applications of the slanted edge MTF measurement method.

Certification of ICI 1012 optical data storage tape

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howell, J. M.

1993-01-01

ICI has developed a unique and novel method of certifying a Terabyte optical tape. The tape quality is guaranteed as a statistical upper limit on the probability of uncorrectable errors. This is called the Corrected Byte Error Rate or CBER. We developed this probabilistic method because of two reasons why error rate cannot be measured directly. Firstly, written data is indelible, so one cannot employ write/read tests such as used for magnetic tape. Secondly, the anticipated error rates need impractically large samples to measure accurately. For example, a rate of 1E-12 implies only one byte in error per tape. The archivability of ICI 1012 Data Storage Tape in general is well characterized and understood. Nevertheless, customers expect performance guarantees to be supported by test results on individual tapes. In particular, they need assurance that data is retrievable after decades in archive. This paper describes the mathematical basis, measurement apparatus and applicability of the certification method.

Multiclass Bayes error estimation by a feature space sampling technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mobasseri, B. G.; Mcgillem, C. D.

1979-01-01

A general Gaussian M-class N-feature classification problem is defined. An algorithm is developed that requires the class statistics as its only input and computes the minimum probability of error through use of a combined analytical and numerical integration over a sequence simplifying transformations of the feature space. The results are compared with those obtained by conventional techniques applied to a 2-class 4-feature discrimination problem with results previously reported and 4-class 4-feature multispectral scanner Landsat data classified by training and testing of the available data.

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Mechanical properties of silicate glasses exposed to a low-Earth orbit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wiedlocher, David E.; Tucker, Dennis S.; Nichols, Ron; Kinser, Donald L.

1992-01-01

The effects of a 5.8 year exposure to low earth orbit environment upon the mechanical properties of commercial optical fused silica, low iron soda-lime-silica, Pyrex 7740, Vycor 7913, BK-7, and the glass ceramic Zerodur were examined. Mechanical testing employed the ASTM-F-394 piston on 3-ball method in a liquid nitrogen environment. Samples were exposed on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) in two locations. Impacts were observed on all specimens except Vycor. Weibull analysis as well as a standard statistical evaluation were conducted. The Weibull analysis revealed no differences between control samples and the two exposed samples. We thus concluded that radiation components of the Earth orbital environment did not degrade the mechanical strength of the samples examined within the limits of experimental error. The upper bound of strength degradation for meteorite impacted samples based upon statistical analysis and observation was 50 percent.

An introduction to medical statistics for health care professionals: Hypothesis tests and estimation.

PubMed

Thomas, Elaine

2005-01-01

This article is the second in a series of three that will give health care professionals (HCPs) a sound introduction to medical statistics (Thomas, 2004). The objective of research is to find out about the population at large. However, it is generally not possible to study the whole of the population and research questions are addressed in an appropriate study sample. The next crucial step is then to use the information from the sample of individuals to make statements about the wider population of like individuals. This procedure of drawing conclusions about the population, based on study data, is known as inferential statistics. The findings from the study give us the best estimate of what is true for the relevant population, given the sample is representative of the population. It is important to consider how accurate this best estimate is, based on a single sample, when compared to the unknown population figure. Any difference between the observed sample result and the population characteristic is termed the sampling error. This article will cover the two main forms of statistical inference (hypothesis tests and estimation) along with issues that need to be addressed when considering the implications of the study results. Copyright (c) 2005 Whurr Publishers Ltd.

A robust clustering algorithm for identifying problematic samples in genome-wide association studies.

PubMed

Bellenguez, Céline; Strange, Amy; Freeman, Colin; Donnelly, Peter; Spencer, Chris C A

2012-01-01

High-throughput genotyping arrays provide an efficient way to survey single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the genome in large numbers of individuals. Downstream analysis of the data, for example in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), often involves statistical models of genotype frequencies across individuals. The complexities of the sample collection process and the potential for errors in the experimental assay can lead to biases and artefacts in an individual's inferred genotypes. Rather than attempting to model these complications, it has become a standard practice to remove individuals whose genome-wide data differ from the sample at large. Here we describe a simple, but robust, statistical algorithm to identify samples with atypical summaries of genome-wide variation. Its use as a semi-automated quality control tool is demonstrated using several summary statistics, selected to identify different potential problems, and it is applied to two different genotyping platforms and sample collections. The algorithm is written in R and is freely available at www.well.ox.ac.uk/chris-spencer chris.spencer@well.ox.ac.uk Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.

2011-01-01

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).

Quantitative determination of amorphous cyclosporine in crystalline cyclosporine samples by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy.

PubMed

Bertacche, Vittorio; Pini, Elena; Stradi, Riccardo; Stratta, Fabio

2006-01-01

The purpose of this study is the development of a quantification method to detect the amount of amorphous cyclosporine using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The mixing of different percentages of crystalline cyclosporine with amorphous cyclosporine was used to obtain a set of standards, composed of cyclosporine samples characterized by different percentages of amorphous cyclosporine. Using a wavelength range of 450-4,000 cm(-1), FTIR spectra were obtained from samples in potassium bromide pellets and then a partial least squares (PLS) model was exploited to correlate the features of the FTIR spectra with the percentage of amorphous cyclosporine in the samples. This model gave a standard error of estimate (SEE) of 0.3562, with an r value of 0.9971 and a standard error of prediction (SEP) of 0.4168, which derives from the cross validation function used to check the precision of the model. Statistical values reveal the applicability of the method to the quantitative determination of amorphous cyclosporine in crystalline cyclosporine samples.

A new statistic to express the uncertainty of kriging predictions for purposes of survey planning.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lark, R. M.; Lapworth, D. J.

2014-05-01

It is well-known that one advantage of kriging for spatial prediction is that, given the random effects model, the prediction error variance can be computed a priori for alternative sampling designs. This allows one to compare sampling schemes, in particular sampling at different densities, and so to decide on one which meets requirements in terms of the uncertainty of the resulting predictions. However, the planning of sampling schemes must account not only for statistical considerations, but also logistics and cost. This requires effective communication between statisticians, soil scientists and data users/sponsors such as managers, regulators or civil servants. In our experience the latter parties are not necessarily able to interpret the prediction error variance as a measure of uncertainty for decision making. In some contexts (particularly the solution of very specific problems at large cartographic scales, e.g. site remediation and precision farming) it is possible to translate uncertainty of predictions into a loss function directly comparable with the cost incurred in increasing precision. Often, however, sampling must be planned for more generic purposes (e.g. baseline or exploratory geochemical surveys). In this latter context the prediction error variance may be of limited value to a non-statistician who has to make a decision on sample intensity and associated cost. We propose an alternative criterion for these circumstances to aid communication between statisticians and data users about the uncertainty of geostatistical surveys based on different sampling intensities. The criterion is the consistency of estimates made from two non-coincident instantiations of a proposed sample design. We consider square sample grids, one instantiation is offset from the second by half the grid spacing along the rows and along the columns. If a sample grid is coarse relative to the important scales of variation in the target property then the consistency of predictions from two instantiations is expected to be small, and can be increased by reducing the grid spacing. The measure of consistency is the correlation between estimates from the two instantiations of the sample grid, averaged over a grid cell. We call this the offset correlation, it can be calculated from the variogram. We propose that this measure is easier to grasp intuitively than the prediction error variance, and has the advantage of having an upper bound (1.0) which will aid its interpretation. This quality measure is illustrated for some hypothetical examples, considering both ordinary kriging and factorial kriging of the variable of interest. It is also illustrated using data on metal concentrations in the soil of north-east England.

Model Error Estimation for the CPTEC Eta Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; daSilva, Arlindo

1999-01-01

Statistical data assimilation systems require the specification of forecast and observation error statistics. Forecast error is due to model imperfections and differences between the initial condition and the actual state of the atmosphere. Practical four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) methods try to fit the forecast state to the observations and assume that the model error is negligible. Here with a number of simplifying assumption, a framework is developed for isolating the model error given the forecast error at two lead-times. Two definitions are proposed for the Talagrand ratio tau, the fraction of the forecast error due to model error rather than initial condition error. Data from the CPTEC Eta Model running operationally over South America are used to calculate forecast error statistics and lower bounds for tau.

Improved Statistics for Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis

PubMed Central

Ueki, Masao; Cordell, Heather J.

2012-01-01

Recently, Wu and colleagues [1] proposed two novel statistics for genome-wide interaction analysis using case/control or case-only data. In computer simulations, their proposed case/control statistic outperformed competing approaches, including the fast-epistasis option in PLINK and logistic regression analysis under the correct model; however, reasons for its superior performance were not fully explored. Here we investigate the theoretical properties and performance of Wu et al.'s proposed statistics and explain why, in some circumstances, they outperform competing approaches. Unfortunately, we find minor errors in the formulae for their statistics, resulting in tests that have higher than nominal type 1 error. We also find minor errors in PLINK's fast-epistasis and case-only statistics, although theory and simulations suggest that these errors have only negligible effect on type 1 error. We propose adjusted versions of all four statistics that, both theoretically and in computer simulations, maintain correct type 1 error rates under the null hypothesis. We also investigate statistics based on correlation coefficients that maintain similar control of type 1 error. Although designed to test specifically for interaction, we show that some of these previously-proposed statistics can, in fact, be sensitive to main effects at one or both loci, particularly in the presence of linkage disequilibrium. We propose two new “joint effects” statistics that, provided the disease is rare, are sensitive only to genuine interaction effects. In computer simulations we find, in most situations considered, that highest power is achieved by analysis under the correct genetic model. Such an analysis is unachievable in practice, as we do not know this model. However, generally high power over a wide range of scenarios is exhibited by our joint effects and adjusted Wu statistics. We recommend use of these alternative or adjusted statistics and urge caution when using Wu et al.'s originally-proposed statistics, on account of the inflated error rate that can result. PMID:22496670

Radon-222 concentrations in ground water and soil gas on Indian reservations in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

DeWild, John F.; Krohelski, James T.

1995-01-01

For sites with wells finished in the sand and gravel aquifer, the coefficient of determination (R2) of the regression of concentration of radon-222 in ground water as a function of well depth is 0.003 and the significance level is 0.32, which indicates that there is not a statistically significant relation between radon-222 concentrations in ground water and well depth. The coefficient of determination of the regression of radon-222 in ground water and soil gas is 0.19 and the root mean square error of the regression line is 271 picocuries per liter. Even though the significance level (0.036) indicates a statistical relation, the root mean square error of the regression is so large that the regression equation would not give reliable predictions. Because of an inadequate number of samples, similar statistical analyses could not be performed for sites with wells finished in the crystalline and sedimentary bedrock aquifers.

Trans-dimensional inversion of microtremor array dispersion data with hierarchical autoregressive error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettmer, Jan; Molnar, Sheri; Steininger, Gavin; Dosso, Stan E.; Cassidy, John F.

2012-02-01

This paper applies a general trans-dimensional Bayesian inference methodology and hierarchical autoregressive data-error models to the inversion of microtremor array dispersion data for shear wave velocity (vs) structure. This approach accounts for the limited knowledge of the optimal earth model parametrization (e.g. the number of layers in the vs profile) and of the data-error statistics in the resulting vs parameter uncertainty estimates. The assumed earth model parametrization influences estimates of parameter values and uncertainties due to different parametrizations leading to different ranges of data predictions. The support of the data for a particular model is often non-unique and several parametrizations may be supported. A trans-dimensional formulation accounts for this non-uniqueness by including a model-indexing parameter as an unknown so that groups of models (identified by the indexing parameter) are considered in the results. The earth model is parametrized in terms of a partition model with interfaces given over a depth-range of interest. In this work, the number of interfaces (layers) in the partition model represents the trans-dimensional model indexing. In addition, serial data-error correlations are addressed by augmenting the geophysical forward model with a hierarchical autoregressive error model that can account for a wide range of error processes with a small number of parameters. Hence, the limited knowledge about the true statistical distribution of data errors is also accounted for in the earth model parameter estimates, resulting in more realistic uncertainties and parameter values. Hierarchical autoregressive error models do not rely on point estimates of the model vector to estimate data-error statistics, and have no requirement for computing the inverse or determinant of a data-error covariance matrix. This approach is particularly useful for trans-dimensional inverse problems, as point estimates may not be representative of the state space that spans multiple subspaces of different dimensionalities. The order of the autoregressive process required to fit the data is determined here by posterior residual-sample examination and statistical tests. Inference for earth model parameters is carried out on the trans-dimensional posterior probability distribution by considering ensembles of parameter vectors. In particular, vs uncertainty estimates are obtained by marginalizing the trans-dimensional posterior distribution in terms of vs-profile marginal distributions. The methodology is applied to microtremor array dispersion data collected at two sites with significantly different geology in British Columbia, Canada. At both sites, results show excellent agreement with estimates from invasive measurements.

Voluntary Medication Error Reporting by ED Nurses: Examining the Association With Work Environment and Social Capital.

PubMed

Farag, Amany; Blegen, Mary; Gedney-Lose, Amalia; Lose, Daniel; Perkhounkova, Yelena

2017-05-01

Medication errors are one of the most frequently occurring errors in health care settings. The complexity of the ED work environment places patients at risk for medication errors. Most hospitals rely on nurses' voluntary medication error reporting, but these errors are under-reported. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship among work environment (nurse manager leadership style and safety climate), social capital (warmth and belonging relationships and organizational trust), and nurses' willingness to report medication errors. A cross-sectional descriptive design using a questionnaire with a convenience sample of emergency nurses was used. Data were analyzed using descriptive, correlation, Mann-Whitney U, and Kruskal-Wallis statistics. A total of 71 emergency nurses were included in the study. Emergency nurses' willingness to report errors decreased as the nurses' years of experience increased (r = -0.25, P = .03). Their willingness to report errors increased when they received more feedback about errors (r = 0.25, P = .03) and when their managers used a transactional leadership style (r = 0.28, P = .01). ED nurse managers can modify their leadership style to encourage error reporting. Timely feedback after an error report is particularly important. Engaging experienced nurses to understand error root causes could increase voluntary error reporting. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge.

PubMed

Bannan, Caitlin C; Burley, Kalistyn H; Chiu, Michael; Shirts, Michael R; Gilson, Michael K; Mobley, David L

2016-11-01

In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty-how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided.

Blind prediction of cyclohexane-water distribution coefficients from the SAMPL5 challenge

PubMed Central

Bannan, Caitlin C.; Burley, Kalistyn H.; Chiu, Michael; Shirts, Michael R.; Gilson, Michael K.; Mobley, David L.

2016-01-01

In the recent SAMPL5 challenge, participants submitted predictions for cyclohexane/water distribution coefficients for a set of 53 small molecules. Distribution coefficients (log D) replace the hydration free energies that were a central part of the past five SAMPL challenges. A wide variety of computational methods were represented by the 76 submissions from 18 participating groups. Here, we analyze submissions by a variety of error metrics and provide details for a number of reference calculations we performed. As in the SAMPL4 challenge, we assessed the ability of participants to evaluate not just their statistical uncertainty, but their model uncertainty – how well they can predict the magnitude of their model or force field error for specific predictions. Unfortunately, this remains an area where prediction and analysis need improvement. In SAMPL4 the top performing submissions achieved a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) around 1.5 kcal/mol. If we anticipate accuracy in log D predictions to be similar to the hydration free energy predictions in SAMPL4, the expected error here would be around 1.54 log units. Only a few submissions had an RMSE below 2.5 log units in their predicted log D values. However, distribution coefficients introduced complexities not present in past SAMPL challenges, including tautomer enumeration, that are likely to be important in predicting biomolecular properties of interest to drug discovery, therefore some decrease in accuracy would be expected. Overall, the SAMPL5 distribution coefficient challenge provided great insight into the importance of modeling a variety of physical effects. We believe these types of measurements will be a promising source of data for future blind challenges, especially in view of the relatively straightforward nature of the experiments and the level of insight provided. PMID:27677750

On the Power of Multivariate Latent Growth Curve Models to Detect Correlated Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hertzog, Christopher; Lindenberger, Ulman; Ghisletta, Paolo; Oertzen, Timo von

2006-01-01

We evaluated the statistical power of single-indicator latent growth curve models (LGCMs) to detect correlated change between two variables (covariance of slopes) as a function of sample size, number of longitudinal measurement occasions, and reliability (measurement error variance). Power approximations following the method of Satorra and Saris…

Forest resources of Alabama

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis; James F. Rosson; John F. Kelly

1984-01-01

The 1982 survey of Alabama's timberland presented in this report covers many items related to the forest resources of the State. The appendix contains standard statistical tables definitions, and estimates of sampling errors upon which the survey is based. Trend data and other information are presented throughout the text. Listed below are a few of the more...

Quantum state discrimination bounds for finite sample size

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Audenaert, Koenraad M. R.; Mosonyi, Milan; Mathematical Institute, Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Egry Jozsef u 1., Budapest 1111

2012-12-15

In the problem of quantum state discrimination, one has to determine by measurements the state of a quantum system, based on the a priori side information that the true state is one of the two given and completely known states, {rho} or {sigma}. In general, it is not possible to decide the identity of the true state with certainty, and the optimal measurement strategy depends on whether the two possible errors (mistaking {rho} for {sigma}, or the other way around) are treated as of equal importance or not. Results on the quantum Chernoff and Hoeffding bounds and the quantum Stein'smore » lemma show that, if several copies of the system are available then the optimal error probabilities decay exponentially in the number of copies, and the decay rate is given by a certain statistical distance between {rho} and {sigma} (the Chernoff distance, the Hoeffding distances, and the relative entropy, respectively). While these results provide a complete solution to the asymptotic problem, they are not completely satisfying from a practical point of view. Indeed, in realistic scenarios one has access only to finitely many copies of a system, and therefore it is desirable to have bounds on the error probabilities for finite sample size. In this paper we provide finite-size bounds on the so-called Stein errors, the Chernoff errors, the Hoeffding errors, and the mixed error probabilities related to the Chernoff and the Hoeffding errors.« less

Putative Panmixia in Restricted Populations of Trypanosoma cruzi Isolated from Wild Triatoma infestans in Bolivia

PubMed Central

Barnabe, Christian; Buitrago, Rosio; Bremond, Philippe; Aliaga, Claudia; Salas, Renata; Vidaurre, Pablo; Herrera, Claudia; Cerqueira, Frédérique; Bosseno, Marie-France; Waleckx, Etienne; Breniere, Simone Frédérique

2013-01-01

Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, is subdivided into six discrete typing units (DTUs; TcI–TcVI) of which TcI is ubiquitous and genetically highly variable. While clonality is the dominant mode of propagation, recombinant events play a significant evolutive role. Recently, foci of wild Triatoma infestans have been described in Bolivia, mainly infected by TcI. Hence, for the first time, we evaluated the level of genetic exchange within TcI natural potentially panmictic populations (single DTU, host, area and sampling time). Seventy-nine TcI stocks from wild T. infestans, belonging to six populations were characterized at eight microsatellite loci. For each population, Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE), linkage disequilibrium (LD), and presence of repeated multilocus genotypes (MLG) were analyzed by using a total of seven statistics, to test the null hypothesis of panmixia (H0). For three populations, none of the seven statistics allowed to rejecting H0; for another one the low size did not allow us to conclude, and for the two others the tests have given contradictory results. Interestingly, apparent panmixia was only observed in very restricted areas, and was not observed when grouping populations distant of only two kilometers or more. Nevertheless it is worth stressing that for the statistic tests of "HWE", in order to minimize the type I error (i. e. incorrect rejection of a true H0), we used the Bonferroni correction (BC) known to considerably increase the type II error ( i. e. failure to reject a false H0). For the other tests (LD and MLG), we did not use BC and the risk of type II error in these cases was acceptable. Thus, these results should be considered as a good indicator of the existence of panmixia in wild environment but this must be confirmed on larger samples to reduce the risk of type II error. PMID:24312410

Statistical methods for astronomical data with upper limits. I - Univariate distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.

1985-01-01

The statistical treatment of univariate censored data is discussed. A heuristic derivation of the Kaplan-Meier maximum-likelihood estimator from first principles is presented which results in an expression amenable to analytic error analysis. Methods for comparing two or more censored samples are given along with simple computational examples, stressing the fact that most astronomical problems involve upper limits while the standard mathematical methods require lower limits. The application of univariate survival analysis to six data sets in the recent astrophysical literature is described, and various aspects of the use of survival analysis in astronomy, such as the limitations of various two-sample tests and the role of parametric modelling, are discussed.

An experimental verification of laser-velocimeter sampling bias and its correction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. A.; Modarress, D.; Owen, F. K.

1982-01-01

The existence of 'sampling bias' in individual-realization laser velocimeter measurements is experimentally verified and shown to be independent of sample rate. The experiments were performed in a simple two-stream mixing shear flow with the standard for comparison being laser-velocimeter results obtained under continuous-wave conditions. It is also demonstrated that the errors resulting from sampling bias can be removed by a proper interpretation of the sampling statistics. In addition, data obtained in a shock-induced separated flow and in the near-wake of airfoils are presented, both bias-corrected and uncorrected, to illustrate the effects of sampling bias in the extreme.

RCT: Module 2.03, Counting Errors and Statistics, Course 8768

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hillmer, Kurt T.

2017-04-01

Radiological sample analysis involves the observation of a random process that may or may not occur and an estimation of the amount of radioactive material present based on that observation. Across the country, radiological control personnel are using the activity measurements to make decisions that may affect the health and safety of workers at those facilities and their surrounding environments. This course will present an overview of measurement processes, a statistical evaluation of both measurements and equipment performance, and some actions to take to minimize the sources of error in count room operations. This course will prepare the student withmore » the skills necessary for radiological control technician (RCT) qualification by passing quizzes, tests, and the RCT Comprehensive Phase 1, Unit 2 Examination (TEST 27566) and by providing in the field skills.« less

Some challenges with statistical inference in adaptive designs.

PubMed

Hung, H M James; Wang, Sue-Jane; Yang, Peiling

2014-01-01

Adaptive designs have generated a great deal of attention to clinical trial communities. The literature contains many statistical methods to deal with added statistical uncertainties concerning the adaptations. Increasingly encountered in regulatory applications are adaptive statistical information designs that allow modification of sample size or related statistical information and adaptive selection designs that allow selection of doses or patient populations during the course of a clinical trial. For adaptive statistical information designs, a few statistical testing methods are mathematically equivalent, as a number of articles have stipulated, but arguably there are large differences in their practical ramifications. We pinpoint some undesirable features of these methods in this work. For adaptive selection designs, the selection based on biomarker data for testing the correlated clinical endpoints may increase statistical uncertainty in terms of type I error probability, and most importantly the increased statistical uncertainty may be impossible to assess.

Correcting evaluation bias of relational classifiers with network cross validation

DOE PAGES

Neville, Jennifer; Gallagher, Brian; Eliassi-Rad, Tina; ...

2011-01-04

Recently, a number of modeling techniques have been developed for data mining and machine learning in relational and network domains where the instances are not independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). These methods specifically exploit the statistical dependencies among instances in order to improve classification accuracy. However, there has been little focus on how these same dependencies affect our ability to draw accurate conclusions about the performance of the models. More specifically, the complex link structure and attribute dependencies in relational data violate the assumptions of many conventional statistical tests and make it difficult to use these tests to assess themore » models in an unbiased manner. In this work, we examine the task of within-network classification and the question of whether two algorithms will learn models that will result in significantly different levels of performance. We show that the commonly used form of evaluation (paired t-test on overlapping network samples) can result in an unacceptable level of Type I error. Furthermore, we show that Type I error increases as (1) the correlation among instances increases and (2) the size of the evaluation set increases (i.e., the proportion of labeled nodes in the network decreases). Lastly, we propose a method for network cross-validation that combined with paired t-tests produces more acceptable levels of Type I error while still providing reasonable levels of statistical power (i.e., 1–Type II error).« less

Experimental design, power and sample size for animal reproduction experiments.

PubMed

Chapman, Phillip L; Seidel, George E

2008-01-01

The present paper concerns statistical issues in the design of animal reproduction experiments, with emphasis on the problems of sample size determination and power calculations. We include examples and non-technical discussions aimed at helping researchers avoid serious errors that may invalidate or seriously impair the validity of conclusions from experiments. Screen shots from interactive power calculation programs and basic SAS power calculation programs are presented to aid in understanding statistical power and computing power in some common experimental situations. Practical issues that are common to most statistical design problems are briefly discussed. These include one-sided hypothesis tests, power level criteria, equality of within-group variances, transformations of response variables to achieve variance equality, optimal specification of treatment group sizes, 'post hoc' power analysis and arguments for the increased use of confidence intervals in place of hypothesis tests.

A Bayesian Measurment Error Model for Misaligned Radiographic Data

DOE PAGES

Lennox, Kristin P.; Glascoe, Lee G.

2013-09-06

An understanding of the inherent variability in micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) data is essential to tasks such as statistical process control and the validation of radiographic simulation tools. The data present unique challenges to variability analysis due to the relatively low resolution of radiographs, and also due to minor variations from run to run which can result in misalignment or magnification changes between repeated measurements of a sample. Positioning changes artificially inflate the variability of the data in ways that mask true physical phenomena. We present a novel Bayesian nonparametric regression model that incorporates both additive and multiplicative measurement error inmore » addition to heteroscedasticity to address this problem. We also use this model to assess the effects of sample thickness and sample position on measurement variability for an aluminum specimen. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.« less

Sampling errors in the measurement of rain and hail parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gertzman, H. S.; Atlas, D.

1977-01-01

Attention is given to a general derivation of the fractional standard deviation (FSD) of any integrated property X such that X(D) = cD to the n. This work extends that of Joss and Waldvogel (1969). The equation is applicable to measuring integrated properties of cloud, rain or hail populations (such as water content, precipitation rate, kinetic energy, or radar reflectivity) which are subject to statistical sampling errors due to the Poisson distributed fluctuations of particles sampled in each particle size interval and the weighted sum of the associated variances in proportion to their contribution to the integral parameter to be measured. Universal curves are presented which are applicable to the exponential size distribution permitting FSD estimation of any parameters from n = 0 to n = 6. The equations and curves also permit corrections for finite upper limits in the size spectrum and a realistic fall speed law.

Efficient statistical tests to compare Youden index: accounting for contingency correlation.

PubMed

Chen, Fangyao; Xue, Yuqiang; Tan, Ming T; Chen, Pingyan

2015-04-30

Youden index is widely utilized in studies evaluating accuracy of diagnostic tests and performance of predictive, prognostic, or risk models. However, both one and two independent sample tests on Youden index have been derived ignoring the dependence (association) between sensitivity and specificity, resulting in potentially misleading findings. Besides, paired sample test on Youden index is currently unavailable. This article develops efficient statistical inference procedures for one sample, independent, and paired sample tests on Youden index by accounting for contingency correlation, namely associations between sensitivity and specificity and paired samples typically represented in contingency tables. For one and two independent sample tests, the variances are estimated by Delta method, and the statistical inference is based on the central limit theory, which are then verified by bootstrap estimates. For paired samples test, we show that the estimated covariance of the two sensitivities and specificities can be represented as a function of kappa statistic so the test can be readily carried out. We then show the remarkable accuracy of the estimated variance using a constrained optimization approach. Simulation is performed to evaluate the statistical properties of the derived tests. The proposed approaches yield more stable type I errors at the nominal level and substantially higher power (efficiency) than does the original Youden's approach. Therefore, the simple explicit large sample solution performs very well. Because we can readily implement the asymptotic and exact bootstrap computation with common software like R, the method is broadly applicable to the evaluation of diagnostic tests and model performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cancer diagnosis by infrared spectroscopy: methodological aspects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Michael; Kim, Keith; Tetteh, John; Mansfield, James R.; Dolenko, Brion; Somorjai, Raymond L.; Orr, F. W.; Watson, Peter H.; Mantsch, Henry H.

1998-04-01

IR spectroscopy is proving to be a powerful tool for the study and diagnosis of cancer. The application of IR spectroscopy to the analysis of cultured tumor cells and grading of breast cancer sections is outlined. Potential sources of error in spectral interpretation due to variations in sample histology and artifacts associated with sample storage and preparation are discussed. The application of statistical techniques to assess differences between spectra and to non-subjectively classify spectra is demonstrated.

Solutions to decrease a systematic error related to AAPH addition in the fluorescence-based ORAC assay.

PubMed

Mellado-Ortega, Elena; Zabalgogeazcoa, Iñigo; Vázquez de Aldana, Beatriz R; Arellano, Juan B

2017-02-15

Oxygen radical absorbance capacity (ORAC) assay in 96-well multi-detection plate readers is a rapid method to determine total antioxidant capacity (TAC) in biological samples. A disadvantage of this method is that the antioxidant inhibition reaction does not start in all of the 96 wells at the same time due to technical limitations when dispensing the free radical-generating azo initiator 2,2'-azobis (2-methyl-propanimidamide) dihydrochloride (AAPH). The time delay between wells yields a systematic error that causes statistically significant differences in TAC determination of antioxidant solutions depending on their plate position. We propose two alternative solutions to avoid this AAPH-dependent error in ORAC assays. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Corrigendum to ‘Evidence for shock heating and constraints on Martian surface temperatures revealed by 40Ar/ 39Ar thermochronometry of Martian meteorites’ [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta (2010) 6900–6920

DOE PAGES

Cassata, William S.; Shuster, David L.; Renne, Paul R.; ...

2014-10-23

Here, the authors regret they have discovered errors in Eq. (3) and in a spreadsheet used to calculate cosmogenic exposure ages shown in Table 1. Eq. (3) is missing a term. The spreadsheet errors concerned an incorrect cell reference and application of Eq. (3). Correction of these errors results in ~15–20% changes to the exposure ages of all samples, minor (generally <0.2%) changes to the radioisotopic ages of some samples (those that entailed a correction for chlorine-derived 38Ar calculated based on the exposure age; see Section 3.3), and statistically insignificant changes to the inferred trapped components identified through isochron analyses.more » These modifications have no impact on the modeling, discussions, or conclusions in the paper, nor do the changes to radioisotopic ages exceed the 1 sigma uncertainties.« less

Type I error probability spending for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance with binomial data.

PubMed

Silva, Ivair R

2018-01-15

Type I error probability spending functions are commonly used for designing sequential analysis of binomial data in clinical trials, but it is also quickly emerging for near-continuous sequential analysis of post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. It is well known that, for clinical trials, when the null hypothesis is not rejected, it is still important to minimize the sample size. Unlike in post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance, that is not important. In post-market safety surveillance, specially when the surveillance involves identification of potential signals, the meaningful statistical performance measure to be minimized is the expected sample size when the null hypothesis is rejected. The present paper shows that, instead of the convex Type I error spending shape conventionally used in clinical trials, a concave shape is more indicated for post-market drug and vaccine safety surveillance. This is shown for both, continuous and group sequential analysis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wetterslev, Jørn; Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian

2017-03-06

Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors) and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors). We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D 2 ) measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in systematic reviews with traditional meta-analyses can be reduced using Trial Sequential Analysis. Several empirical studies have demonstrated that the Trial Sequential Analysis provides better control of type I errors and of type II errors than the traditional naïve meta-analysis. Trial Sequential Analysis represents analysis of meta-analytic data, with transparent assumptions, and better control of type I and type II errors than the traditional meta-analysis using naïve unadjusted confidence intervals.

New Insights into Handling Missing Values in Environmental Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Roda, Célina; Nicolis, Ioannis; Momas, Isabelle; Guihenneuc, Chantal

2014-01-01

Missing data are unavoidable in environmental epidemiologic surveys. The aim of this study was to compare methods for handling large amounts of missing values: omission of missing values, single and multiple imputations (through linear regression or partial least squares regression), and a fully Bayesian approach. These methods were applied to the PARIS birth cohort, where indoor domestic pollutant measurements were performed in a random sample of babies' dwellings. A simulation study was conducted to assess performances of different approaches with a high proportion of missing values (from 50% to 95%). Different simulation scenarios were carried out, controlling the true value of the association (odds ratio of 1.0, 1.2, and 1.4), and varying the health outcome prevalence. When a large amount of data is missing, omitting these missing data reduced statistical power and inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the association. Single imputation underestimated the variability, and considerably increased risk of type I error. All approaches were conservative, except the Bayesian joint model. In the case of a common health outcome, the fully Bayesian approach is the most efficient approach (low root mean square error, reasonable type I error, and high statistical power). Nevertheless for a less prevalent event, the type I error is increased and the statistical power is reduced. The estimated posterior distribution of the OR is useful to refine the conclusion. Among the methods handling missing values, no approach is absolutely the best but when usual approaches (e.g. single imputation) are not sufficient, joint modelling approach of missing process and health association is more efficient when large amounts of data are missing. PMID:25226278

A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests.

PubMed

Kosinski, Andrzej S

2013-03-15

Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations that are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we presented, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic that incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe that the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the WGS test statistic in a general GEE setting. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A weighted generalized score statistic for comparison of predictive values of diagnostic tests

PubMed Central

Kosinski, Andrzej S.

2013-01-01

Positive and negative predictive values are important measures of a medical diagnostic test performance. We consider testing equality of two positive or two negative predictive values within a paired design in which all patients receive two diagnostic tests. The existing statistical tests for testing equality of predictive values are either Wald tests based on the multinomial distribution or the empirical Wald and generalized score tests within the generalized estimating equations (GEE) framework. As presented in the literature, these test statistics have considerably complex formulas without clear intuitive insight. We propose their re-formulations which are mathematically equivalent but algebraically simple and intuitive. As is clearly seen with a new re-formulation we present, the generalized score statistic does not always reduce to the commonly used score statistic in the independent samples case. To alleviate this, we introduce a weighted generalized score (WGS) test statistic which incorporates empirical covariance matrix with newly proposed weights. This statistic is simple to compute, it always reduces to the score statistic in the independent samples situation, and it preserves type I error better than the other statistics as demonstrated by simulations. Thus, we believe the proposed WGS statistic is the preferred statistic for testing equality of two predictive values and for corresponding sample size computations. The new formulas of the Wald statistics may be useful for easy computation of confidence intervals for difference of predictive values. The introduced concepts have potential to lead to development of the weighted generalized score test statistic in a general GEE setting. PMID:22912343

Comparative forensic soil analysis of New Jersey state parks using a combination of simple techniques with multivariate statistics.

PubMed

Bonetti, Jennifer; Quarino, Lawrence

2014-05-01

This study has shown that the combination of simple techniques with the use of multivariate statistics offers the potential for the comparative analysis of soil samples. Five samples were obtained from each of twelve state parks across New Jersey in both the summer and fall seasons. Each sample was examined using particle-size distribution, pH analysis in both water and 1 M CaCl2 , and a loss on ignition technique. Data from each of the techniques were combined, and principal component analysis (PCA) and canonical discriminant analysis (CDA) were used for multivariate data transformation. Samples from different locations could be visually differentiated from one another using these multivariate plots. Hold-one-out cross-validation analysis showed error rates as low as 3.33%. Ten blind study samples were analyzed resulting in no misclassifications using Mahalanobis distance calculations and visual examinations of multivariate plots. Seasonal variation was minimal between corresponding samples, suggesting potential success in forensic applications. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Measurement uncertainty and feasibility study of a flush airdata system for a hypersonic flight experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitmore, Stephen A.; Moes, Timothy R.

1994-01-01

Presented is a feasibility and error analysis for a hypersonic flush airdata system on a hypersonic flight experiment (HYFLITE). HYFLITE heating loads make intrusive airdata measurement impractical. Although this analysis is specifically for the HYFLITE vehicle and trajectory, the problems analyzed are generally applicable to hypersonic vehicles. A layout of the flush-port matrix is shown. Surface pressures are related airdata parameters using a simple aerodynamic model. The model is linearized using small perturbations and inverted using nonlinear least-squares. Effects of various error sources on the overall uncertainty are evaluated using an error simulation. Error sources modeled include boundarylayer/viscous interactions, pneumatic lag, thermal transpiration in the sensor pressure tubing, misalignment in the matrix layout, thermal warping of the vehicle nose, sampling resolution, and transducer error. Using simulated pressure data for input to the estimation algorithm, effects caused by various error sources are analyzed by comparing estimator outputs with the original trajectory. To obtain ensemble averages the simulation is run repeatedly and output statistics are compiled. Output errors resulting from the various error sources are presented as a function of Mach number. Final uncertainties with all modeled error sources included are presented as a function of Mach number.

Pilot study on the feasibility of a computerized speech recognition charting system.

PubMed

Feldman, C A; Stevens, D

1990-08-01

The objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of developing and using a voice recognition computerized charting system to record dental clinical examination data. More specifically, the study was designed to analyze the time and error differential between the traditional examiner/recorder method (ASSISTANT) and computerized voice recognition method (VOICE). DMFS examinations were performed twice on 20 patients using the traditional ASSISTANT and the VOICE charting system. A statistically significant difference was found when comparing the mean ASSISTANT time of 2.69 min to the VOICE time of 3.72 min (P less than 0.001). No statistically significant difference was found when comparing the mean ASSISTANT recording errors of 0.1 to VOICE recording errors of 0.6 (P = 0.059). 90% of the patients indicated they felt comfortable with the dentist talking to a computer and only 5% of the sample indicated they opposed VOICE. Results from this pilot study indicate that a charting system utilizing voice recognition technology could be considered a viable alternative to traditional examiner/recorder methods of clinical charting.

Multiple regression and Artificial Neural Network for long-term rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mekanik, F.; Imteaz, M. A.; Gato-Trinidad, S.; Elmahdi, A.

2013-10-01

In this study, the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Multiple regression analysis (MR) to forecast long-term seasonal spring rainfall in Victoria, Australia was investigated using lagged El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as potential predictors. The use of dual (combined lagged ENSO-IOD) input sets for calibrating and validating ANN and MR Models is proposed to investigate the simultaneous effect of past values of these two major climate modes on long-term spring rainfall prediction. The MR models that did not violate the limits of statistical significance and multicollinearity were selected for future spring rainfall forecast. The ANN was developed in the form of multilayer perceptron using Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Both MR and ANN modelling were assessed statistically using mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson correlation (r) and Willmott index of agreement (d). The developed MR and ANN models were tested on out-of-sample test sets; the MR models showed very poor generalisation ability for east Victoria with correlation coefficients of -0.99 to -0.90 compared to ANN with correlation coefficients of 0.42-0.93; ANN models also showed better generalisation ability for central and west Victoria with correlation coefficients of 0.68-0.85 and 0.58-0.97 respectively. The ability of multiple regression models to forecast out-of-sample sets is compatible with ANN for Daylesford in central Victoria and Kaniva in west Victoria (r = 0.92 and 0.67 respectively). The errors of the testing sets for ANN models are generally lower compared to multiple regression models. The statistical analysis suggest the potential of ANN over MR models for rainfall forecasting using large scale climate modes.

Testing non-inferiority of a new treatment in three-arm clinical trials with binary endpoints.

PubMed

Tang, Nian-Sheng; Yu, Bin; Tang, Man-Lai

2014-12-18

A two-arm non-inferiority trial without a placebo is usually adopted to demonstrate that an experimental treatment is not worse than a reference treatment by a small pre-specified non-inferiority margin due to ethical concerns. Selection of the non-inferiority margin and establishment of assay sensitivity are two major issues in the design, analysis and interpretation for two-arm non-inferiority trials. Alternatively, a three-arm non-inferiority clinical trial including a placebo is usually conducted to assess the assay sensitivity and internal validity of a trial. Recently, some large-sample approaches have been developed to assess the non-inferiority of a new treatment based on the three-arm trial design. However, these methods behave badly with small sample sizes in the three arms. This manuscript aims to develop some reliable small-sample methods to test three-arm non-inferiority. Saddlepoint approximation, exact and approximate unconditional, and bootstrap-resampling methods are developed to calculate p-values of the Wald-type, score and likelihood ratio tests. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate their performance in terms of type I error rate and power. Our empirical results show that the saddlepoint approximation method generally behaves better than the asymptotic method based on the Wald-type test statistic. For small sample sizes, approximate unconditional and bootstrap-resampling methods based on the score test statistic perform better in the sense that their corresponding type I error rates are generally closer to the prespecified nominal level than those of other test procedures. Both approximate unconditional and bootstrap-resampling test procedures based on the score test statistic are generally recommended for three-arm non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes.

Epidemiology of dental professional liability.

PubMed

Montagna, F; Cortesini, C; Manca, R; Montagna, L; Piras, A; Manfredini, D

2011-04-01

The aim of this article is to collect data relating to dental professional liability in Italy and provide a common platform for discussions among clinicians, legal medicine practitioners, and experts in law. On the basis of two different dental-legal statistical samples (1,670 reports of legal dental experts and 320 civil court decisions) we analyzed the dental professional liability lawsuit in the areas of distribution of lawsuits among the different dental specialties, recurrence and type of errors, outcome of civil suits, parameters of compensation. Some ideas are also proposed for possible strategies in the management of clinical risk (prevention of errors) and court proceedings.

Limits on the Accuracy of Linking. Research Report. ETS RR-10-22

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haberman, Shelby J.

2010-01-01

Sampling errors limit the accuracy with which forms can be linked. Limitations on accuracy are especially important in testing programs in which a very large number of forms are employed. Standard inequalities in mathematical statistics may be used to establish lower bounds on the achievable inking accuracy. To illustrate results, a variety of…

Comparison of Oral Language Usage among English Language Learners Diagnosed with a Learning Disability and Those in General Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pray, Lisa

2009-01-01

The investigator compared the linguistic characteristics of Spanish and English language samples taken from English language learners (ELLs) diagnosed with an academic learning disability (LD) and ELLs in general education to determine if the errors and characteristics of their language use differ. There was a statistically significant difference…

NHEXAS PHASE I MARYLAND STUDY--STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE FOR EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS AND SUMMARY STATISTICS (D05)

EPA Science Inventory

This SOP describes the methods and procedures for two types of QA procedures: spot checks of hand entered data, and QA procedures for co-located and split samples. The spot checks were used to determine whether the error rate goal for the input of hand entered data was being att...

Q-mode versus R-mode principal component analysis for linear discriminant analysis (LDA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Loong Chuen; Liong, Choong-Yeun; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

2017-05-01

Many literature apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) as either preliminary visualization or variable con-struction methods or both. Focus of PCA can be on the samples (R-mode PCA) or variables (Q-mode PCA). Traditionally, R-mode PCA has been the usual approach to reduce high-dimensionality data before the application of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), to solve classification problems. Output from PCA composed of two new matrices known as loadings and scores matrices. Each matrix can then be used to produce a plot, i.e. loadings plot aids identification of important variables whereas scores plot presents spatial distribution of samples on new axes that are also known as Principal Components (PCs). Fundamentally, the scores matrix always be the input variables for building classification model. A recent paper uses Q-mode PCA but the focus of analysis was not on the variables but instead on the samples. As a result, the authors have exchanged the use of both loadings and scores plots in which clustering of samples was studied using loadings plot whereas scores plot has been used to identify important manifest variables. Therefore, the aim of this study is to statistically validate the proposed practice. Evaluation is based on performance of external error obtained from LDA models according to number of PCs. On top of that, bootstrapping was also conducted to evaluate the external error of each of the LDA models. Results show that LDA models produced by PCs from R-mode PCA give logical performance and the matched external error are also unbiased whereas the ones produced with Q-mode PCA show the opposites. With that, we concluded that PCs produced from Q-mode is not statistically stable and thus should not be applied to problems of classifying samples, but variables. We hope this paper will provide some insights on the disputable issues.

Consistency errors in p-values reported in Spanish psychology journals.

PubMed

Caperos, José Manuel; Pardo, Antonio

2013-01-01

Recent reviews have drawn attention to frequent consistency errors when reporting statistical results. We have reviewed the statistical results reported in 186 articles published in four Spanish psychology journals. Of these articles, 102 contained at least one of the statistics selected for our study: Fisher-F , Student-t and Pearson-c 2 . Out of the 1,212 complete statistics reviewed, 12.2% presented a consistency error, meaning that the reported p-value did not correspond to the reported value of the statistic and its degrees of freedom. In 2.3% of the cases, the correct calculation would have led to a different conclusion than the reported one. In terms of articles, 48% included at least one consistency error, and 17.6% would have to change at least one conclusion. In meta-analytical terms, with a focus on effect size, consistency errors can be considered substantial in 9.5% of the cases. These results imply a need to improve the quality and precision with which statistical results are reported in Spanish psychology journals.

Quality assessment of gasoline using comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography combined with unfolded partial least squares: A reliable approach for the detection of gasoline adulteration.

PubMed

Parastar, Hadi; Mostafapour, Sara; Azimi, Gholamhasan

2016-01-01

Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography and flame ionization detection combined with unfolded-partial least squares is proposed as a simple, fast and reliable method to assess the quality of gasoline and to detect its potential adulterants. The data for the calibration set are first baseline corrected using a two-dimensional asymmetric least squares algorithm. The number of significant partial least squares components to build the model is determined using the minimum value of root-mean square error of leave-one out cross validation, which was 4. In this regard, blends of gasoline with kerosene, white spirit and paint thinner as frequently used adulterants are used to make calibration samples. Appropriate statistical parameters of regression coefficient of 0.996-0.998, root-mean square error of prediction of 0.005-0.010 and relative error of prediction of 1.54-3.82% for the calibration set show the reliability of the developed method. In addition, the developed method is externally validated with three samples in validation set (with a relative error of prediction below 10.0%). Finally, to test the applicability of the proposed strategy for the analysis of real samples, five real gasoline samples collected from gas stations are used for this purpose and the gasoline proportions were in range of 70-85%. Also, the relative standard deviations were below 8.5% for different samples in the prediction set. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Pathology-related cases in the Norwegian System of Patient Injury Compensation in the period 2010-2015.

PubMed

Alfsen, G Cecilie; Chen, Ying; Kähler, Hanne; Bukholm, Ida Rashida Khan

2016-12-01

The Norwegian System of Patient Injury Compensation (NPE) processes compensation claims from patients who complain about malpractice in the health services. A wrong diagnosis in pathology may cause serious injury to the patient, but the incidence of compensation claims is unknown, because pathology is not specified as a separate category in NPE’s statistics. Knowledge about errors is required to assess quality-enhancing measures. We have therefore searched through the NPE records to identify cases whose background stems from errors committed in pathology departments and laboratories. We have searched through the NPE records for cases related to pathology for the years 2010 – 2015. During this period the NPE processed a total of 26 600 cases, of which 93 were related to pathology. The compensation claim was upheld in 66 cases, resulting in total compensation payments amounting to NOK 63 million. False-negative results in the form of undetected diagnoses were the most frequent grounds for compensation claims (63 cases), with an undetected malignant melanoma (n = 23) or atypia in cell samples from the cervix uteri (n = 16) as the major groups. Sixteen cases involved non-diagnostic issues such as mix-up of samples (n = 8), contamination of samples (n = 4) or delayed responses (n = 4). The number of compensation claims caused by errors in pathology diagnostics is low in relative terms. The errors may, however, be of a serious nature, especially if malignant conditions are overlooked or samples mixed up.

Analysis of Statistical Methods Currently used in Toxicology Journals

PubMed Central

Na, Jihye; Yang, Hyeri

2014-01-01

Statistical methods are frequently used in toxicology, yet it is not clear whether the methods employed by the studies are used consistently and conducted based on sound statistical grounds. The purpose of this paper is to describe statistical methods used in top toxicology journals. More specifically, we sampled 30 papers published in 2014 from Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology, Archives of Toxicology, and Toxicological Science and described methodologies used to provide descriptive and inferential statistics. One hundred thirteen endpoints were observed in those 30 papers, and most studies had sample size less than 10, with the median and the mode being 6 and 3 & 6, respectively. Mean (105/113, 93%) was dominantly used to measure central tendency, and standard error of the mean (64/113, 57%) and standard deviation (39/113, 34%) were used to measure dispersion, while few studies provide justifications regarding why the methods being selected. Inferential statistics were frequently conducted (93/113, 82%), with one-way ANOVA being most popular (52/93, 56%), yet few studies conducted either normality or equal variance test. These results suggest that more consistent and appropriate use of statistical method is necessary which may enhance the role of toxicology in public health. PMID:25343012

Analysis of Statistical Methods Currently used in Toxicology Journals.

PubMed

Na, Jihye; Yang, Hyeri; Bae, SeungJin; Lim, Kyung-Min

2014-09-01

Statistical methods are frequently used in toxicology, yet it is not clear whether the methods employed by the studies are used consistently and conducted based on sound statistical grounds. The purpose of this paper is to describe statistical methods used in top toxicology journals. More specifically, we sampled 30 papers published in 2014 from Toxicology and Applied Pharmacology, Archives of Toxicology, and Toxicological Science and described methodologies used to provide descriptive and inferential statistics. One hundred thirteen endpoints were observed in those 30 papers, and most studies had sample size less than 10, with the median and the mode being 6 and 3 & 6, respectively. Mean (105/113, 93%) was dominantly used to measure central tendency, and standard error of the mean (64/113, 57%) and standard deviation (39/113, 34%) were used to measure dispersion, while few studies provide justifications regarding why the methods being selected. Inferential statistics were frequently conducted (93/113, 82%), with one-way ANOVA being most popular (52/93, 56%), yet few studies conducted either normality or equal variance test. These results suggest that more consistent and appropriate use of statistical method is necessary which may enhance the role of toxicology in public health.

Statistical analysis of modeling error in structural dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, J. D.

1990-01-01

The paper presents a generic statistical model of the (total) modeling error for conventional space structures in their launch configuration. Modeling error is defined as the difference between analytical prediction and experimental measurement. It is represented by the differences between predicted and measured real eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Comparisons are made between pre-test and post-test models. Total modeling error is then subdivided into measurement error, experimental error and 'pure' modeling error, and comparisons made between measurement error and total modeling error. The generic statistical model presented in this paper is based on the first four global (primary structure) modes of four different structures belonging to the generic category of Conventional Space Structures (specifically excluding large truss-type space structures). As such, it may be used to evaluate the uncertainty of predicted mode shapes and frequencies, sinusoidal response, or the transient response of other structures belonging to the same generic category.

The Applicability of Standard Error of Measurement and Minimal Detectable Change to Motor Learning Research-A Behavioral Study.

PubMed

Furlan, Leonardo; Sterr, Annette

2018-01-01

Motor learning studies face the challenge of differentiating between real changes in performance and random measurement error. While the traditional p -value-based analyses of difference (e.g., t -tests, ANOVAs) provide information on the statistical significance of a reported change in performance scores, they do not inform as to the likely cause or origin of that change, that is, the contribution of both real modifications in performance and random measurement error to the reported change. One way of differentiating between real change and random measurement error is through the utilization of the statistics of standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change (MDC). SEM is estimated from the standard deviation of a sample of scores at baseline and a test-retest reliability index of the measurement instrument or test employed. MDC, in turn, is estimated from SEM and a degree of confidence, usually 95%. The MDC value might be regarded as the minimum amount of change that needs to be observed for it to be considered a real change, or a change to which the contribution of real modifications in performance is likely to be greater than that of random measurement error. A computer-based motor task was designed to illustrate the applicability of SEM and MDC to motor learning research. Two studies were conducted with healthy participants. Study 1 assessed the test-retest reliability of the task and Study 2 consisted in a typical motor learning study, where participants practiced the task for five consecutive days. In Study 2, the data were analyzed with a traditional p -value-based analysis of difference (ANOVA) and also with SEM and MDC. The findings showed good test-retest reliability for the task and that the p -value-based analysis alone identified statistically significant improvements in performance over time even when the observed changes could in fact have been smaller than the MDC and thereby caused mostly by random measurement error, as opposed to by learning. We suggest therefore that motor learning studies could complement their p -value-based analyses of difference with statistics such as SEM and MDC in order to inform as to the likely cause or origin of any reported changes in performance.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

PubMed Central

Boitard, Simon; Rodríguez, Willy; Jay, Flora; Mona, Stefano; Austerlitz, Frédéric

2016-01-01

Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles. PMID:26943927

Statistical error in simulations of Poisson processes: Example of diffusion in solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nilsson, Johan O.; Leetmaa, Mikael; Vekilova, Olga Yu.; Simak, Sergei I.; Skorodumova, Natalia V.

2016-08-01

Simulations of diffusion in solids often produce poor statistics of diffusion events. We present an analytical expression for the statistical error in ion conductivity obtained in such simulations. The error expression is not restricted to any computational method in particular, but valid in the context of simulation of Poisson processes in general. This analytical error expression is verified numerically for the case of Gd-doped ceria by running a large number of kinetic Monte Carlo calculations.

Robust Covariate-Adjusted Log-Rank Statistics and Corresponding Sample Size Formula for Recurrent Events Data

PubMed Central

Song, Rui; Kosorok, Michael R.; Cai, Jianwen

2009-01-01

Summary Recurrent events data are frequently encountered in clinical trials. This article develops robust covariate-adjusted log-rank statistics applied to recurrent events data with arbitrary numbers of events under independent censoring and the corresponding sample size formula. The proposed log-rank tests are robust with respect to different data-generating processes and are adjusted for predictive covariates. It reduces to the Kong and Slud (1997, Biometrika 84, 847–862) setting in the case of a single event. The sample size formula is derived based on the asymptotic normality of the covariate-adjusted log-rank statistics under certain local alternatives and a working model for baseline covariates in the recurrent event data context. When the effect size is small and the baseline covariates do not contain significant information about event times, it reduces to the same form as that of Schoenfeld (1983, Biometrics 39, 499–503) for cases of a single event or independent event times within a subject. We carry out simulations to study the control of type I error and the comparison of powers between several methods in finite samples. The proposed sample size formula is illustrated using data from an rhDNase study. PMID:18162107

Error reduction in three-dimensional metrology combining optical and touch probe data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerde, Janice R.; Christens-Barry, William A.

2010-08-01

Analysis of footwear under the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) is partly based on identifying the boundary ("parting line") between the "external surface area upper" (ESAU) and the sample's sole. Often, that boundary is obscured. We establish the parting line as the curved intersection between the sample outer surface and its insole surface. The outer surface is determined by discrete point cloud coordinates obtained using a laser scanner. The insole surface is defined by point cloud data, obtained using a touch probe device-a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). Because these point cloud data sets do not overlap spatially, a polynomial surface is fitted to the insole data and extended to intersect a mesh fitted to the outer surface point cloud. This line of intersection defines the ESAU boundary, permitting further fractional area calculations to proceed. The defined parting line location is sensitive to the polynomial used to fit experimental data. Extrapolation to the intersection with the ESAU can heighten this sensitivity. We discuss a methodology for transforming these data into a common reference frame. Three scenarios are considered: measurement error in point cloud coordinates, from fitting a polynomial surface to a point cloud then extrapolating beyond the data set, and error from reference frame transformation. These error sources can influence calculated surface areas. We describe experiments to assess error magnitude, the sensitivity of calculated results on these errors, and minimizing error impact on calculated quantities. Ultimately, we must ensure that statistical error from these procedures is minimized and within acceptance criteria.

Automated grain mapping using wide angle convergent beam electron diffraction in transmission electron microscope for nanomaterials.

PubMed

Kumar, Vineet

2011-12-01

The grain size statistics, commonly derived from the grain map of a material sample, are important microstructure characteristics that greatly influence its properties. The grain map for nanomaterials is usually obtained manually by visual inspection of the transmission electron microscope (TEM) micrographs because automated methods do not perform satisfactorily. While the visual inspection method provides reliable results, it is a labor intensive process and is often prone to human errors. In this article, an automated grain mapping method is developed using TEM diffraction patterns. The presented method uses wide angle convergent beam diffraction in the TEM. The automated technique was applied on a platinum thin film sample to obtain the grain map and subsequently derive grain size statistics from it. The grain size statistics obtained with the automated method were found in good agreement with the visual inspection method.

Implications of clinical trial design on sample size requirements.

PubMed

Leon, Andrew C

2008-07-01

The primary goal in designing a randomized controlled clinical trial (RCT) is to minimize bias in the estimate of treatment effect. Randomized group assignment, double-blinded assessments, and control or comparison groups reduce the risk of bias. The design must also provide sufficient statistical power to detect a clinically meaningful treatment effect and maintain a nominal level of type I error. An attempt to integrate neurocognitive science into an RCT poses additional challenges. Two particularly relevant aspects of such a design often receive insufficient attention in an RCT. Multiple outcomes inflate type I error, and an unreliable assessment process introduces bias and reduces statistical power. Here we describe how both unreliability and multiple outcomes can increase the study costs and duration and reduce the feasibility of the study. The objective of this article is to consider strategies that overcome the problems of unreliability and multiplicity.

Variable criteria sequential stopping rule: Validity and power with repeated measures ANOVA, multiple correlation, MANOVA and relation to Chi-square distribution.

PubMed

Fitts, Douglas A

2017-09-21

The variable criteria sequential stopping rule (vcSSR) is an efficient way to add sample size to planned ANOVA tests while holding the observed rate of Type I errors, α o , constant. The only difference from regular null hypothesis testing is that criteria for stopping the experiment are obtained from a table based on the desired power, rate of Type I errors, and beginning sample size. The vcSSR was developed using between-subjects ANOVAs, but it should work with p values from any type of F test. In the present study, the α o remained constant at the nominal level when using the previously published table of criteria with repeated measures designs with various numbers of treatments per subject, Type I error rates, values of ρ, and four different sample size models. New power curves allow researchers to select the optimal sample size model for a repeated measures experiment. The criteria held α o constant either when used with a multiple correlation that varied the sample size model and the number of predictor variables, or when used with MANOVA with multiple groups and two levels of a within-subject variable at various levels of ρ. Although not recommended for use with χ 2 tests such as the Friedman rank ANOVA test, the vcSSR produces predictable results based on the relation between F and χ 2 . Together, the data confirm the view that the vcSSR can be used to control Type I errors during sequential sampling with any t- or F-statistic rather than being restricted to certain ANOVA designs.

Statistics 101 for Radiologists.

PubMed

Anvari, Arash; Halpern, Elkan F; Samir, Anthony E

2015-10-01

Diagnostic tests have wide clinical applications, including screening, diagnosis, measuring treatment effect, and determining prognosis. Interpreting diagnostic test results requires an understanding of key statistical concepts used to evaluate test efficacy. This review explains descriptive statistics and discusses probability, including mutually exclusive and independent events and conditional probability. In the inferential statistics section, a statistical perspective on study design is provided, together with an explanation of how to select appropriate statistical tests. Key concepts in recruiting study samples are discussed, including representativeness and random sampling. Variable types are defined, including predictor, outcome, and covariate variables, and the relationship of these variables to one another. In the hypothesis testing section, we explain how to determine if observed differences between groups are likely to be due to chance. We explain type I and II errors, statistical significance, and study power, followed by an explanation of effect sizes and how confidence intervals can be used to generalize observed effect sizes to the larger population. Statistical tests are explained in four categories: t tests and analysis of variance, proportion analysis tests, nonparametric tests, and regression techniques. We discuss sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, receiver operating characteristic analysis, and likelihood ratios. Measures of reliability and agreement, including κ statistics, intraclass correlation coefficients, and Bland-Altman graphs and analysis, are introduced. © RSNA, 2015.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Instantaneous Orbital Data Products of TRMM over Indian Subcontinent

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayaluxmi, I.; Nagesh, D.

2013-12-01

In the last 20 years, microwave radiometers have taken satellite images of earth's weather proving to be a valuable tool for quantitative estimation of precipitation from space. However, along with the widespread acceptance of microwave based precipitation products, it has also been recognized that they contain large uncertainties. While most of the uncertainty evaluation studies focus on the accuracy of rainfall accumulated over time (e.g., season/year), evaluation of instantaneous rainfall intensities from satellite orbital data products are relatively rare. These instantaneous products are known to potentially cause large uncertainties during real time flood forecasting studies at the watershed scale. Especially over land regions, where the highly varying land surface emissivity offer a myriad of complications hindering accurate rainfall estimation. The error components of orbital data products also tend to interact nonlinearly with hydrologic modeling uncertainty. Keeping these in mind, the present study fosters the development of uncertainty analysis using instantaneous satellite orbital data products (version 7 of 1B11, 2A25, 2A23) derived from the passive and active sensors onboard Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, namely TRMM microwave imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR). The study utilizes 11 years of orbital data from 2002 to 2012 over the Indian subcontinent and examines the influence of various error sources on the convective and stratiform precipitation types. Analysis conducted over the land regions of India investigates three sources of uncertainty in detail. These include 1) Errors due to improper delineation of rainfall signature within microwave footprint (rain/no rain classification), 2) Uncertainty offered by the transfer function linking rainfall with TMI low frequency channels and 3) Sampling errors owing to the narrow swath and infrequent visits of TRMM sensors. Case study results obtained during the Indian summer monsoon months of June-September are presented using contingency table statistics, performance diagram, scatter plots and probability density functions. Our study demonstrates that theory of copula can be efficiently used to represent the highly non linear dependency structure of rainfall with respect to TMI low frequency channels of 19, 21, 37 GHz. This questions the exclusive usage of high frequency 85 GHz channel for TMI overland rainfall retrieval algorithms. Further, the PR sampling errors revealed using a statistical bootstrap technique was found to incur relative sampling errors <30% (for 2 degree grids) over India whose magnitudes were biased towards stratiform rainfall type and sampling technique employed. These findings clearly document that proper characterization of error structure offered by TMI and PR has wider implications for decision making prior to incorporating the resulting orbital products for basin scale hydrologic modeling.

Optimum sample size allocation to minimize cost or maximize power for the two-sample trimmed mean test.

PubMed

Guo, Jiin-Huarng; Luh, Wei-Ming

2009-05-01

When planning a study, sample size determination is one of the most important tasks facing the researcher. The size will depend on the purpose of the study, the cost limitations, and the nature of the data. By specifying the standard deviation ratio and/or the sample size ratio, the present study considers the problem of heterogeneous variances and non-normality for Yuen's two-group test and develops sample size formulas to minimize the total cost or maximize the power of the test. For a given power, the sample size allocation ratio can be manipulated so that the proposed formulas can minimize the total cost, the total sample size, or the sum of total sample size and total cost. On the other hand, for a given total cost, the optimum sample size allocation ratio can maximize the statistical power of the test. After the sample size is determined, the present simulation applies Yuen's test to the sample generated, and then the procedure is validated in terms of Type I errors and power. Simulation results show that the proposed formulas can control Type I errors and achieve the desired power under the various conditions specified. Finally, the implications for determining sample sizes in experimental studies and future research are discussed.

Type Ia Supernova Light Curve Inference: Hierarchical Models for Nearby SN Ia in the Optical and Near Infrared

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandel, Kaisey; Kirshner, R. P.; Narayan, G.; Wood-Vasey, W. M.; Friedman, A. S.; Hicken, M.

2010-01-01

I have constructed a comprehensive statistical model for Type Ia supernova light curves spanning optical through near infrared data simultaneously. The near infrared light curves are found to be excellent standard candles (sigma(MH) = 0.11 +/- 0.03 mag) that are less vulnerable to systematic error from dust extinction, a major confounding factor for cosmological studies. A hierarchical statistical framework incorporates coherently multiple sources of randomness and uncertainty, including photometric error, intrinsic supernova light curve variations and correlations, dust extinction and reddening, peculiar velocity dispersion and distances, for probabilistic inference with Type Ia SN light curves. Inferences are drawn from the full probability density over individual supernovae and the SN Ia and dust populations, conditioned on a dataset of SN Ia light curves and redshifts. To compute probabilistic inferences with hierarchical models, I have developed BayeSN, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm based on Gibbs sampling. This code explores and samples the global probability density of parameters describing individual supernovae and the population. I have applied this hierarchical model to optical and near infrared data of over 100 nearby Type Ia SN from PAIRITEL, the CfA3 sample, and the literature. Using this statistical model, I find that SN with optical and NIR data have a smaller residual scatter in the Hubble diagram than SN with only optical data. The continued study of Type Ia SN in the near infrared will be important for improving their utility as precise and accurate cosmological distance indicators.

Mathematical modeling of wastewater-derived biodegradable dissolved organic nitrogen.

PubMed

Simsek, Halis

2016-11-01

Wastewater-derived dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) typically constitutes the majority of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) discharged to surface waters from advanced wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). When considering the stringent regulations on nitrogen discharge limits in sensitive receiving waters, DON becomes problematic and needs to be reduced. Biodegradable DON (BDON) is a portion of DON that is biologically degradable by bacteria when the optimum environmental conditions are met. BDON in a two-stage trickling filter WWTP was estimated using artificial intelligence techniques, such as adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems, multilayer perceptron, radial basis neural networks (RBNN), and generalized regression neural networks. Nitrite, nitrate, ammonium, TDN, and DON data were used as input neurons. Wastewater samples were collected from four different locations in the plant. Model performances were evaluated using root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean bias error, and coefficient of determination statistics. Modeling results showed that the R(2) values were higher than 0.85 in all four models for all wastewater samples, except only R(2) in the final effluent sample for RBNN modeling was low (0.52). Overall, it was found that all four computing techniques could be employed successfully to predict BDON.

Effect of the image resolution on the statistical descriptors of heterogeneous media.

PubMed

Ledesma-Alonso, René; Barbosa, Romeli; Ortegón, Jaime

2018-02-01

The characterization and reconstruction of heterogeneous materials, such as porous media and electrode materials, involve the application of image processing methods to data acquired by scanning electron microscopy or other microscopy techniques. Among them, binarization and decimation are critical in order to compute the correlation functions that characterize the microstructure of the above-mentioned materials. In this study, we present a theoretical analysis of the effects of the image-size reduction, due to the progressive and sequential decimation of the original image. Three different decimation procedures (random, bilinear, and bicubic) were implemented and their consequences on the discrete correlation functions (two-point, line-path, and pore-size distribution) and the coarseness (derived from the local volume fraction) are reported and analyzed. The chosen statistical descriptors (correlation functions and coarseness) are typically employed to characterize and reconstruct heterogeneous materials. A normalization for each of the correlation functions has been performed. When the loss of statistical information has not been significant for a decimated image, its normalized correlation function is forecast by the trend of the original image (reference function). In contrast, when the decimated image does not hold statistical evidence of the original one, the normalized correlation function diverts from the reference function. Moreover, the equally weighted sum of the average of the squared difference, between the discrete correlation functions of the decimated images and the reference functions, leads to a definition of an overall error. During the first stages of the gradual decimation, the error remains relatively small and independent of the decimation procedure. Above a threshold defined by the correlation length of the reference function, the error becomes a function of the number of decimation steps. At this stage, some statistical information is lost and the error becomes dependent on the decimation procedure. These results may help us to restrict the amount of information that one can afford to lose during a decimation process, in order to reduce the computational and memory cost, when one aims to diminish the time consumed by a characterization or reconstruction technique, yet maintaining the statistical quality of the digitized sample.

Effect of the image resolution on the statistical descriptors of heterogeneous media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledesma-Alonso, René; Barbosa, Romeli; Ortegón, Jaime

2018-02-01

The characterization and reconstruction of heterogeneous materials, such as porous media and electrode materials, involve the application of image processing methods to data acquired by scanning electron microscopy or other microscopy techniques. Among them, binarization and decimation are critical in order to compute the correlation functions that characterize the microstructure of the above-mentioned materials. In this study, we present a theoretical analysis of the effects of the image-size reduction, due to the progressive and sequential decimation of the original image. Three different decimation procedures (random, bilinear, and bicubic) were implemented and their consequences on the discrete correlation functions (two-point, line-path, and pore-size distribution) and the coarseness (derived from the local volume fraction) are reported and analyzed. The chosen statistical descriptors (correlation functions and coarseness) are typically employed to characterize and reconstruct heterogeneous materials. A normalization for each of the correlation functions has been performed. When the loss of statistical information has not been significant for a decimated image, its normalized correlation function is forecast by the trend of the original image (reference function). In contrast, when the decimated image does not hold statistical evidence of the original one, the normalized correlation function diverts from the reference function. Moreover, the equally weighted sum of the average of the squared difference, between the discrete correlation functions of the decimated images and the reference functions, leads to a definition of an overall error. During the first stages of the gradual decimation, the error remains relatively small and independent of the decimation procedure. Above a threshold defined by the correlation length of the reference function, the error becomes a function of the number of decimation steps. At this stage, some statistical information is lost and the error becomes dependent on the decimation procedure. These results may help us to restrict the amount of information that one can afford to lose during a decimation process, in order to reduce the computational and memory cost, when one aims to diminish the time consumed by a characterization or reconstruction technique, yet maintaining the statistical quality of the digitized sample.

Balancing the books - a statistical theory of prospective budgets in Earth System science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Kane, J. Philip

An honest declaration of the error in a mass, momentum or energy balance, ɛ, simply raises the question of its acceptability: "At what value of ɛ is the attempted balance to be rejected?" Answering this question requires a reference quantity against which to compare ɛ. This quantity must be a mathematical function of all the data used in making the balance. To deliver this function, a theory grounded in a workable definition of acceptability is essential. A distinction must be drawn between a retrospective balance and a prospective budget in relation to any natural space-filling body. Balances look to the past; budgets look to the future. The theory is built on the application of classical sampling theory to the measurement and closure of a prospective budget. It satisfies R.A. Fisher's "vital requirement that the actual and physical conduct of experiments should govern the statistical procedure of their interpretation". It provides a test, which rejects, or fails to reject, the hypothesis that the closing error on the budget, when realised, was due to sampling error only. By increasing the number of measurements, the discrimination of the test can be improved, controlling both the precision and accuracy of the budget and its components. The cost-effective design of such measurement campaigns is discussed briefly. This analysis may also show when campaigns to close a budget on a particular space-filling body are not worth the effort for either scientific or economic reasons. Other approaches, such as those based on stochastic processes, lack this finality, because they fail to distinguish between different types of error in the mismatch between a set of realisations of the process and the measured data.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-10-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. Here, we are applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantify the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining data sets from several analysers and using simulations, we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time lag eliminates these effects (provided the time lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Eddy-covariance data with low signal-to-noise ratio: time-lag determination, uncertainties and limit of detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langford, B.; Acton, W.; Ammann, C.; Valach, A.; Nemitz, E.

2015-03-01

All eddy-covariance flux measurements are associated with random uncertainties which are a combination of sampling error due to natural variability in turbulence and sensor noise. The former is the principal error for systems where the signal-to-noise ratio of the analyser is high, as is usually the case when measuring fluxes of heat, CO2 or H2O. Where signal is limited, which is often the case for measurements of other trace gases and aerosols, instrument uncertainties dominate. We are here applying a consistent approach based on auto- and cross-covariance functions to quantifying the total random flux error and the random error due to instrument noise separately. As with previous approaches, the random error quantification assumes that the time-lag between wind and concentration measurement is known. However, if combined with commonly used automated methods that identify the individual time-lag by looking for the maximum in the cross-covariance function of the two entities, analyser noise additionally leads to a systematic bias in the fluxes. Combining datasets from several analysers and using simulations we show that the method of time-lag determination becomes increasingly important as the magnitude of the instrument error approaches that of the sampling error. The flux bias can be particularly significant for disjunct data, whereas using a prescribed time-lag eliminates these effects (provided the time-lag does not fluctuate unduly over time). We also demonstrate that when sampling at higher elevations, where low frequency turbulence dominates and covariance peaks are broader, both the probability and magnitude of bias are magnified. We show that the statistical significance of noisy flux data can be increased (limit of detection can be decreased) by appropriate averaging of individual fluxes, but only if systematic biases are avoided by using a prescribed time-lag. Finally, we make recommendations for the analysis and reporting of data with low signal-to-noise and their associated errors.

Dealing with dietary measurement error in nutritional cohort studies.

PubMed

Freedman, Laurence S; Schatzkin, Arthur; Midthune, Douglas; Kipnis, Victor

2011-07-20

Dietary measurement error creates serious challenges to reliably discovering new diet-disease associations in nutritional cohort studies. Such error causes substantial underestimation of relative risks and reduction of statistical power for detecting associations. On the basis of data from the Observing Protein and Energy Nutrition Study, we recommend the following approaches to deal with these problems. Regarding data analysis of cohort studies using food-frequency questionnaires, we recommend 1) using energy adjustment for relative risk estimation; 2) reporting estimates adjusted for measurement error along with the usual relative risk estimates, whenever possible (this requires data from a relevant, preferably internal, validation study in which participants report intakes using both the main instrument and a more detailed reference instrument such as a 24-hour recall or multiple-day food record); 3) performing statistical adjustment of relative risks, based on such validation data, if they exist, using univariate (only for energy-adjusted intakes such as densities or residuals) or multivariate regression calibration. We note that whereas unadjusted relative risk estimates are biased toward the null value, statistical significance tests of unadjusted relative risk estimates are approximately valid. Regarding study design, we recommend increasing the sample size to remedy loss of power; however, it is important to understand that this will often be an incomplete solution because the attenuated signal may be too small to distinguish from unmeasured confounding in the model relating disease to reported intake. Future work should be devoted to alleviating the problem of signal attenuation, possibly through the use of improved self-report instruments or by combining dietary biomarkers with self-report instruments.

Statistical generation of training sets for measuring NO3(-), NH4(+) and major ions in natural waters using an ion selective electrode array.

PubMed

Mueller, Amy V; Hemond, Harold F

2016-05-18

Knowledge of ionic concentrations in natural waters is essential to understand watershed processes. Inorganic nitrogen, in the form of nitrate and ammonium ions, is a key nutrient as well as a participant in redox, acid-base, and photochemical processes of natural waters, leading to spatiotemporal patterns of ion concentrations at scales as small as meters or hours. Current options for measurement in situ are costly, relying primarily on instruments adapted from laboratory methods (e.g., colorimetric, UV absorption); free-standing and inexpensive ISE sensors for NO3(-) and NH4(+) could be attractive alternatives if interferences from other constituents were overcome. Multi-sensor arrays, coupled with appropriate non-linear signal processing, offer promise in this capacity but have not yet successfully achieved signal separation for NO3(-) and NH4(+)in situ at naturally occurring levels in unprocessed water samples. A novel signal processor, underpinned by an appropriate sensor array, is proposed that overcomes previous limitations by explicitly integrating basic chemical constraints (e.g., charge balance). This work further presents a rationalized process for the development of such in situ instrumentation for NO3(-) and NH4(+), including a statistical-modeling strategy for instrument design, training/calibration, and validation. Statistical analysis reveals that historical concentrations of major ionic constituents in natural waters across New England strongly covary and are multi-modal. This informs the design of a statistically appropriate training set, suggesting that the strong covariance of constituents across environmental samples can be exploited through appropriate signal processing mechanisms to further improve estimates of minor constituents. Two artificial neural network architectures, one expanded to incorporate knowledge of basic chemical constraints, were tested to process outputs of a multi-sensor array, trained using datasets of varying degrees of statistical representativeness to natural water samples. The accuracy of ANN results improves monotonically with the statistical representativeness of the training set (error decreases by ∼5×), while the expanded neural network architecture contributes a further factor of 2-3.5 decrease in error when trained with the most representative sample set. Results using the most statistically accurate set of training samples (which retain environmentally relevant ion concentrations but avoid the potential interference of humic acids) demonstrated accurate, unbiased quantification of nitrate and ammonium at natural environmental levels (±20% down to <10 μM), as well as the major ions Na(+), K(+), Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Cl(-), and SO4(2-), in unprocessed samples. These results show promise for the development of new in situ instrumentation for the support of scientific field work.

Teaching Statistics Online Using "Excel"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jerome, Lawrence

2011-01-01

As anyone who has taught or taken a statistics course knows, statistical calculations can be tedious and error-prone, with the details of a calculation sometimes distracting students from understanding the larger concepts. Traditional statistics courses typically use scientific calculators, which can relieve some of the tedium and errors but…

Accuracy assessment in the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Houston, A. G.; Pitts, D. E.; Feiveson, A. H.; Badhwar, G.; Ferguson, M.; Hsu, E.; Potter, J.; Chhikara, R.; Rader, M.; Ahlers, C.

1979-01-01

The Accuracy Assessment System (AAS) of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) was responsible for determining the accuracy and reliability of LACIE estimates of wheat production, area, and yield, made at regular intervals throughout the crop season, and for investigating the various LACIE error sources, quantifying these errors, and relating them to their causes. Some results of using the AAS during the three years of LACIE are reviewed. As the program culminated, AAS was able not only to meet the goal of obtaining accurate statistical estimates of sampling and classification accuracy, but also the goal of evaluating component labeling errors. Furthermore, the ground-truth data processing matured from collecting data for one crop (small grains) to collecting, quality-checking, and archiving data for all crops in a LACIE small segment.

Objectified quantification of uncertainties in Bayesian atmospheric inversions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berchet, A.; Pison, I.; Chevallier, F.; Bousquet, P.; Bonne, J.-L.; Paris, J.-D.

2015-05-01

Classical Bayesian atmospheric inversions process atmospheric observations and prior emissions, the two being connected by an observation operator picturing mainly the atmospheric transport. These inversions rely on prescribed errors in the observations, the prior emissions and the observation operator. When data pieces are sparse, inversion results are very sensitive to the prescribed error distributions, which are not accurately known. The classical Bayesian framework experiences difficulties in quantifying the impact of mis-specified error distributions on the optimized fluxes. In order to cope with this issue, we rely on recent research results to enhance the classical Bayesian inversion framework through a marginalization on a large set of plausible errors that can be prescribed in the system. The marginalization consists in computing inversions for all possible error distributions weighted by the probability of occurrence of the error distributions. The posterior distribution of the fluxes calculated by the marginalization is not explicitly describable. As a consequence, we carry out a Monte Carlo sampling based on an approximation of the probability of occurrence of the error distributions. This approximation is deduced from the well-tested method of the maximum likelihood estimation. Thus, the marginalized inversion relies on an automatic objectified diagnosis of the error statistics, without any prior knowledge about the matrices. It robustly accounts for the uncertainties on the error distributions, contrary to what is classically done with frozen expert-knowledge error statistics. Some expert knowledge is still used in the method for the choice of an emission aggregation pattern and of a sampling protocol in order to reduce the computation cost. The relevance and the robustness of the method is tested on a case study: the inversion of methane surface fluxes at the mesoscale with virtual observations on a realistic network in Eurasia. Observing system simulation experiments are carried out with different transport patterns, flux distributions and total prior amounts of emitted methane. The method proves to consistently reproduce the known "truth" in most cases, with satisfactory tolerance intervals. Additionally, the method explicitly provides influence scores and posterior correlation matrices. An in-depth interpretation of the inversion results is then possible. The more objective quantification of the influence of the observations on the fluxes proposed here allows us to evaluate the impact of the observation network on the characterization of the surface fluxes. The explicit correlations between emission aggregates reveal the mis-separated regions, hence the typical temporal and spatial scales the inversion can analyse. These scales are consistent with the chosen aggregation patterns.

Statistical power as a function of Cronbach alpha of instrument questionnaire items.

PubMed

Heo, Moonseong; Kim, Namhee; Faith, Myles S

2015-10-14

In countless number of clinical trials, measurements of outcomes rely on instrument questionnaire items which however often suffer measurement error problems which in turn affect statistical power of study designs. The Cronbach alpha or coefficient alpha, here denoted by C(α), can be used as a measure of internal consistency of parallel instrument items that are developed to measure a target unidimensional outcome construct. Scale score for the target construct is often represented by the sum of the item scores. However, power functions based on C(α) have been lacking for various study designs. We formulate a statistical model for parallel items to derive power functions as a function of C(α) under several study designs. To this end, we assume fixed true score variance assumption as opposed to usual fixed total variance assumption. That assumption is critical and practically relevant to show that smaller measurement errors are inversely associated with higher inter-item correlations, and thus that greater C(α) is associated with greater statistical power. We compare the derived theoretical statistical power with empirical power obtained through Monte Carlo simulations for the following comparisons: one-sample comparison of pre- and post-treatment mean differences, two-sample comparison of pre-post mean differences between groups, and two-sample comparison of mean differences between groups. It is shown that C(α) is the same as a test-retest correlation of the scale scores of parallel items, which enables testing significance of C(α). Closed-form power functions and samples size determination formulas are derived in terms of C(α), for all of the aforementioned comparisons. Power functions are shown to be an increasing function of C(α), regardless of comparison of interest. The derived power functions are well validated by simulation studies that show that the magnitudes of theoretical power are virtually identical to those of the empirical power. Regardless of research designs or settings, in order to increase statistical power, development and use of instruments with greater C(α), or equivalently with greater inter-item correlations, is crucial for trials that intend to use questionnaire items for measuring research outcomes. Further development of the power functions for binary or ordinal item scores and under more general item correlation strutures reflecting more real world situations would be a valuable future study.

Across-cohort QC analyses of GWAS summary statistics from complex traits.

PubMed

Chen, Guo-Bo; Lee, Sang Hong; Robinson, Matthew R; Trzaskowski, Maciej; Zhu, Zhi-Xiang; Winkler, Thomas W; Day, Felix R; Croteau-Chonka, Damien C; Wood, Andrew R; Locke, Adam E; Kutalik, Zoltán; Loos, Ruth J F; Frayling, Timothy M; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Yang, Jian; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M

2016-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been successful in discovering SNP trait associations for many quantitative traits and common diseases. Typically, the effect sizes of SNP alleles are very small and this requires large genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMAs) to maximize statistical power. A trend towards ever-larger GWAMA is likely to continue, yet dealing with summary statistics from hundreds of cohorts increases logistical and quality control problems, including unknown sample overlap, and these can lead to both false positive and false negative findings. In this study, we propose four metrics and visualization tools for GWAMA, using summary statistics from cohort-level GWASs. We propose methods to examine the concordance between demographic information, and summary statistics and methods to investigate sample overlap. (I) We use the population genetics F st statistic to verify the genetic origin of each cohort and their geographic location, and demonstrate using GWAMA data from the GIANT Consortium that geographic locations of cohorts can be recovered and outlier cohorts can be detected. (II) We conduct principal component analysis based on reported allele frequencies, and are able to recover the ancestral information for each cohort. (III) We propose a new statistic that uses the reported allelic effect sizes and their standard errors to identify significant sample overlap or heterogeneity between pairs of cohorts. (IV) To quantify unknown sample overlap across all pairs of cohorts, we propose a method that uses randomly generated genetic predictors that does not require the sharing of individual-level genotype data and does not breach individual privacy.

Across-cohort QC analyses of GWAS summary statistics from complex traits

PubMed Central

Chen, Guo-Bo; Lee, Sang Hong; Robinson, Matthew R; Trzaskowski, Maciej; Zhu, Zhi-Xiang; Winkler, Thomas W; Day, Felix R; Croteau-Chonka, Damien C; Wood, Andrew R; Locke, Adam E; Kutalik, Zoltán; Loos, Ruth J F; Frayling, Timothy M; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Yang, Jian; Wray, Naomi R; Visscher, Peter M

2017-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been successful in discovering SNP trait associations for many quantitative traits and common diseases. Typically, the effect sizes of SNP alleles are very small and this requires large genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMAs) to maximize statistical power. A trend towards ever-larger GWAMA is likely to continue, yet dealing with summary statistics from hundreds of cohorts increases logistical and quality control problems, including unknown sample overlap, and these can lead to both false positive and false negative findings. In this study, we propose four metrics and visualization tools for GWAMA, using summary statistics from cohort-level GWASs. We propose methods to examine the concordance between demographic information, and summary statistics and methods to investigate sample overlap. (I) We use the population genetics Fst statistic to verify the genetic origin of each cohort and their geographic location, and demonstrate using GWAMA data from the GIANT Consortium that geographic locations of cohorts can be recovered and outlier cohorts can be detected. (II) We conduct principal component analysis based on reported allele frequencies, and are able to recover the ancestral information for each cohort. (III) We propose a new statistic that uses the reported allelic effect sizes and their standard errors to identify significant sample overlap or heterogeneity between pairs of cohorts. (IV) To quantify unknown sample overlap across all pairs of cohorts, we propose a method that uses randomly generated genetic predictors that does not require the sharing of individual-level genotype data and does not breach individual privacy. PMID:27552965

(Sample) Size Matters: Best Practices for Defining Error in Planktic Foraminiferal Proxy Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowery, C.; Fraass, A. J.

2016-02-01

Paleoceanographic research is a vital tool to extend modern observational datasets and to study the impact of climate events for which there is no modern analog. Foraminifera are one of the most widely used tools for this type of work, both as paleoecological indicators and as carriers for geochemical proxies. However, the use of microfossils as proxies for paleoceanographic conditions brings about a unique set of problems. This is primarily due to the fact that groups of individual foraminifera, which usually live about a month, are used to infer average conditions for time periods ranging from hundreds to tens of thousands of years. Because of this, adequate sample size is very important for generating statistically robust datasets, particularly for stable isotopes. In the early days of stable isotope geochemistry, instrumental limitations required hundreds of individual foraminiferal tests to return a value. This had the fortunate side-effect of smoothing any seasonal to decadal changes within the planktic foram population. With the advent of more sensitive mass spectrometers, smaller sample sizes have now become standard. While this has many advantages, the use of smaller numbers of individuals to generate a data point has lessened the amount of time averaging in the isotopic analysis and decreased precision in paleoceanographic datasets. With fewer individuals per sample, the differences between individual specimens will result in larger variation, and therefore error, and less precise values for each sample. Unfortunately, most (the authors included) do not make a habit of reporting the error associated with their sample size. We have created an open-source model in R to quantify the effect of sample sizes under various realistic and highly modifiable parameters (calcification depth, diagenesis in a subset of the population, improper identification, vital effects, mass, etc.). For example, a sample in which only 1 in 10 specimens is diagenetically altered can be off by >0.3‰ δ18O VPDB, or 1°C. Here, we demonstrate the use of this tool to quantify error in micropaleontological datasets, and suggest best practices for minimizing error when generating stable isotope data with foraminifera.

Impact of Sample Size and Variability on the Power and Type I Error Rates of Equivalence Tests: A Simulation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rusticus, Shayna A.; Lovato, Chris Y.

2014-01-01

The question of equivalence between two or more groups is frequently of interest to many applied researchers. Equivalence testing is a statistical method designed to provide evidence that groups are comparable by demonstrating that the mean differences found between groups are small enough that they are considered practically unimportant. Few…

Methods for estimating aboveground biomass and its components for Douglas-fir and lodgepole pine trees

Treesearch

K.P. Poudel; H. Temesgen

2016-01-01

Estimating aboveground biomass and its components requires sound statistical formulation and evaluation. Using data collected from 55 destructively sampled trees in different parts of Oregon, we evaluated the performance of three groups of methods to estimate total aboveground biomass and (or) its components based on the bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) that...

Rocks: A Concrete Activity That Introduces Normal Distribution, Sampling Error, Central Limit Theorem and True Score Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Duzer, Eric

2011-01-01

This report introduces a short, hands-on activity that addresses a key challenge in teaching quantitative methods to students who lack confidence or experience with statistical analysis. Used near the beginning of the course, this activity helps students develop an intuitive insight regarding a number of abstract concepts which are key to…

Tips and Tricks for Successful Application of Statistical Methods to Biological Data.

PubMed

Schlenker, Evelyn

2016-01-01

This chapter discusses experimental design and use of statistics to describe characteristics of data (descriptive statistics) and inferential statistics that test the hypothesis posed by the investigator. Inferential statistics, based on probability distributions, depend upon the type and distribution of the data. For data that are continuous, randomly and independently selected, as well as normally distributed more powerful parametric tests such as Student's t test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) can be used. For non-normally distributed or skewed data, transformation of the data (using logarithms) may normalize the data allowing use of parametric tests. Alternatively, with skewed data nonparametric tests can be utilized, some of which rely on data that are ranked prior to statistical analysis. Experimental designs and analyses need to balance between committing type 1 errors (false positives) and type 2 errors (false negatives). For a variety of clinical studies that determine risk or benefit, relative risk ratios (random clinical trials and cohort studies) or odds ratios (case-control studies) are utilized. Although both use 2 × 2 tables, their premise and calculations differ. Finally, special statistical methods are applied to microarray and proteomics data, since the large number of genes or proteins evaluated increase the likelihood of false discoveries. Additional studies in separate samples are used to verify microarray and proteomic data. Examples in this chapter and references are available to help continued investigation of experimental designs and appropriate data analysis.

Statistical methodology for estimating the mean difference in a meta-analysis without study-specific variance information.

PubMed

Sangnawakij, Patarawan; Böhning, Dankmar; Adams, Stephen; Stanton, Michael; Holling, Heinz

2017-04-30

Statistical inference for analyzing the results from several independent studies on the same quantity of interest has been investigated frequently in recent decades. Typically, any meta-analytic inference requires that the quantity of interest is available from each study together with an estimate of its variability. The current work is motivated by a meta-analysis on comparing two treatments (thoracoscopic and open) of congenital lung malformations in young children. Quantities of interest include continuous end-points such as length of operation or number of chest tube days. As studies only report mean values (and no standard errors or confidence intervals), the question arises how meta-analytic inference can be developed. We suggest two methods to estimate study-specific variances in such a meta-analysis, where only sample means and sample sizes are available in the treatment arms. A general likelihood ratio test is derived for testing equality of variances in two groups. By means of simulation studies, the bias and estimated standard error of the overall mean difference from both methodologies are evaluated and compared with two existing approaches: complete study analysis only and partial variance information. The performance of the test is evaluated in terms of type I error. Additionally, we illustrate these methods in the meta-analysis on comparing thoracoscopic and open surgery for congenital lung malformations and in a meta-analysis on the change in renal function after kidney donation. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Data-quality measures for stakeholder-implemented watershed-monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greve, Adrienne I.

2002-01-01

Community-based watershed groups, many of which collect environmental data, have steadily increased in number over the last decade. The data generated by these programs are often underutilized due to uncertainty in the quality of data produced. The incorporation of data-quality measures into stakeholder monitoring programs lends statistical validity to data. Data-quality measures are divided into three steps: quality assurance, quality control, and quality assessment. The quality-assurance step attempts to control sources of error that cannot be directly quantified. This step is part of the design phase of a monitoring program and includes clearly defined, quantifiable objectives, sampling sites that meet the objectives, standardized protocols for sample collection, and standardized laboratory methods. Quality control (QC) is the collection of samples to assess the magnitude of error in a data set due to sampling, processing, transport, and analysis. In order to design a QC sampling program, a series of issues needs to be considered: (1) potential sources of error, (2) the type of QC samples, (3) inference space, (4) the number of QC samples, and (5) the distribution of the QC samples. Quality assessment is the process of evaluating quality-assurance measures and analyzing the QC data in order to interpret the environmental data. Quality assessment has two parts: one that is conducted on an ongoing basis as the monitoring program is running, and one that is conducted during the analysis of environmental data. The discussion of the data-quality measures is followed by an example of their application to a monitoring program in the Big Thompson River watershed of northern Colorado.

Transport Coefficients from Large Deviation Functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Chloe; Limmer, David

2017-10-01

We describe a method for computing transport coefficients from the direct evaluation of large deviation function. This method is general, relying on only equilibrium fluctuations, and is statistically efficient, employing trajectory based importance sampling. Equilibrium fluctuations of molecular currents are characterized by their large deviation functions, which is a scaled cumulant generating function analogous to the free energy. A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is used to evaluate the large deviation functions, from which arbitrary transport coefficients are derivable. We find significant statistical improvement over traditional Green-Kubo based calculations. The systematic and statistical errors of this method are analyzed in the context of specific transport coefficient calculations, including the shear viscosity, interfacial friction coefficient, and thermal conductivity.

The Bootstrap, the Jackknife, and the Randomization Test: A Sampling Taxonomy.

PubMed

Rodgers, J L

1999-10-01

A simple sampling taxonomy is defined that shows the differences between and relationships among the bootstrap, the jackknife, and the randomization test. Each method has as its goal the creation of an empirical sampling distribution that can be used to test statistical hypotheses, estimate standard errors, and/or create confidence intervals. Distinctions between the methods can be made based on the sampling approach (with replacement versus without replacement) and the sample size (replacing the whole original sample versus replacing a subset of the original sample). The taxonomy is useful for teaching the goals and purposes of resampling schemes. An extension of the taxonomy implies other possible resampling approaches that have not previously been considered. Univariate and multivariate examples are presented.

A new statistical distance scale for planetary nebulae

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Alaa; Ismail, H. A.; Alsolami, Z.

2015-05-01

In the first part of the present article we discuss the consistency among different individual distance methods of Galactic planetary nebulae, while in the second part we develop a new statistical distance scale based on a calibrating sample of well determined distances. A set composed of 315 planetary nebulae with individual distances are extracted from the literature. Inspecting the data set indicates that the accuracy of distances is varying among different individual methods and also among different sources where the same individual method was applied. Therefore, we derive a reliable weighted mean distance for each object by considering the influence of the distance error and the weight of each individual method. The results reveal that the discussed individual methods are consistent with each other, except the gravity method that produces higher distances compared to other individual methods. From the initial data set, we construct a standard calibrating sample consists of 82 objects. This sample is restricted only to the objects with distances determined from at least two different individual methods, except few objects with trusted distances determined from the trigonometric, spectroscopic, and cluster membership methods. In addition to the well determined distances for this sample, it shows a lot of advantages over that used in the prior distance scales. This sample is used to recalibrate the mass-radius and radio surface brightness temperature-radius relationships. An average error of ˜30 % is estimated for the new distance scale. The newly distance scale is compared with the most widely used statistical scales in literature, where the results show that it is roughly similar to the majority of them within ˜±20 % difference. Furthermore, the new scale yields a weighted mean distance to the Galactic center of 7.6±1.35 kpc, which in good agreement with the very recent measure of Malkin 2013.

Bio-Optical Data Assimilation With Observational Error Covariance Derived From an Ensemble of Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulman, Igor; Gould, Richard W.; Frolov, Sergey; McCarthy, Sean; Penta, Brad; Anderson, Stephanie; Sakalaukus, Peter

2018-03-01

An ensemble-based approach to specify observational error covariance in the data assimilation of satellite bio-optical properties is proposed. The observational error covariance is derived from statistical properties of the generated ensemble of satellite MODIS-Aqua chlorophyll (Chl) images. The proposed observational error covariance is used in the Optimal Interpolation scheme for the assimilation of MODIS-Aqua Chl observations. The forecast error covariance is specified in the subspace of the multivariate (bio-optical, physical) empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) estimated from a month-long model run. The assimilation of surface MODIS-Aqua Chl improved surface and subsurface model Chl predictions. Comparisons with surface and subsurface water samples demonstrate that data assimilation run with the proposed observational error covariance has higher RMSE than the data assimilation run with "optimistic" assumption about observational errors (10% of the ensemble mean), but has smaller or comparable RMSE than data assimilation run with an assumption that observational errors equal to 35% of the ensemble mean (the target error for satellite data product for chlorophyll). Also, with the assimilation of the MODIS-Aqua Chl data, the RMSE between observed and model-predicted fractions of diatoms to the total phytoplankton is reduced by a factor of two in comparison to the nonassimilative run.

Analysis of uncertainties and convergence of the statistical quantities in turbulent wall-bounded flows by means of a physically based criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrade, João Rodrigo; Martins, Ramon Silva; Thompson, Roney Leon; Mompean, Gilmar; da Silveira Neto, Aristeu

2018-04-01

The present paper provides an analysis of the statistical uncertainties associated with direct numerical simulation (DNS) results and experimental data for turbulent channel and pipe flows, showing a new physically based quantification of these errors, to improve the determination of the statistical deviations between DNSs and experiments. The analysis is carried out using a recently proposed criterion by Thompson et al. ["A methodology to evaluate statistical errors in DNS data of plane channel flows," Comput. Fluids 130, 1-7 (2016)] for fully turbulent plane channel flows, where the mean velocity error is estimated by considering the Reynolds stress tensor, and using the balance of the mean force equation. It also presents how the residual error evolves in time for a DNS of a plane channel flow, and the influence of the Reynolds number on its convergence rate. The root mean square of the residual error is shown in order to capture a single quantitative value of the error associated with the dimensionless averaging time. The evolution in time of the error norm is compared with the final error provided by DNS data of similar Reynolds numbers available in the literature. A direct consequence of this approach is that it was possible to compare different numerical results and experimental data, providing an improved understanding of the convergence of the statistical quantities in turbulent wall-bounded flows.

Accounting for sampling variability, injury under-reporting, and sensor error in concussion injury risk curves.

PubMed

Elliott, Michael R; Margulies, Susan S; Maltese, Matthew R; Arbogast, Kristy B

2015-09-18

There has been recent dramatic increase in the use of sensors affixed to the heads or helmets of athletes to measure the biomechanics of head impacts that lead to concussion. The relationship between injury and linear or rotational head acceleration measured by such sensors can be quantified with an injury risk curve. The utility of the injury risk curve relies on the accuracy of both the clinical diagnosis and the biomechanical measure. The focus of our analysis was to demonstrate the influence of three sources of error on the shape and interpretation of concussion injury risk curves: sampling variability associated with a rare event, concussion under-reporting, and sensor measurement error. We utilized Bayesian statistical methods to generate synthetic data from previously published concussion injury risk curves developed using data from helmet-based sensors on collegiate football players and assessed the effect of the three sources of error on the risk relationship. Accounting for sampling variability adds uncertainty or width to the injury risk curve. Assuming a variety of rates of unreported concussions in the non-concussed group, we found that accounting for under-reporting lowers the rotational acceleration required for a given concussion risk. Lastly, after accounting for sensor error, we find strengthened relationships between rotational acceleration and injury risk, further lowering the magnitude of rotational acceleration needed for a given risk of concussion. As more accurate sensors are designed and more sensitive and specific clinical diagnostic tools are introduced, our analysis provides guidance for the future development of comprehensive concussion risk curves. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network problem threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gejji, Raghvendra, R.

1992-01-01

Network transmission errors such as collisions, CRC errors, misalignment, etc. are statistical in nature. Although errors can vary randomly, a high level of errors does indicate specific network problems, e.g. equipment failure. In this project, we have studied the random nature of collisions theoretically as well as by gathering statistics, and established a numerical threshold above which a network problem is indicated with high probability.

LoCuSS: THE MASS DENSITY PROFILE OF MASSIVE GALAXY CLUSTERS AT z = 0.2 {sup ,}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Okabe, Nobuhiro; Umetsu, Keiichi; Smith, Graham P.

We present a stacked weak-lensing analysis of an approximately mass-selected sample of 50 galaxy clusters at 0.15 < z < 0.3, based on observations with Suprime-Cam on the Subaru Telescope. We develop a new method for selecting lensed background galaxies from which we estimate that our sample of red background galaxies suffers just 1% contamination. We detect the stacked tangential shear signal from the full sample of 50 clusters, based on this red sample of background galaxies, at a total signal-to-noise ratio of 32.7. The Navarro-Frenk-White model is an excellent fit to the data, yielding sub-10% statistical precision on massmore » and concentration: M{sub vir}=7.19{sup +0.53}{sub -0.50} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 14} h{sup -1} M{sub sun}, c{sub vir}=5.41{sup +0.49}{sub -0.45} (c{sub 200}=4.22{sup +0.40}{sub -0.36}). Tests of a range of possible systematic errors, including shear calibration and stacking-related issues, indicate that they are subdominant to the statistical errors. The concentration parameter obtained from stacking our approximately mass-selected cluster sample is broadly in line with theoretical predictions. Moreover, the uncertainty on our measurement is comparable with the differences between the different predictions in the literature. Overall, our results highlight the potential for stacked weak-lensing methods to probe the mean mass density profile of cluster-scale dark matter halos with upcoming surveys, including Hyper-Suprime-Cam, Dark Energy Survey, and KIDS.« less

Delta13C and delta18O isotopic composition of CaCO3 measured by continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry: statistical evaluation and verification by application to Devils Hole core DH-11 calcite.

PubMed

Révész, Kinga M; Landwehr, Jurate M

2002-01-01

A new method was developed to analyze the stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of small samples (400 +/- 20 micro g) of calcium carbonate. This new method streamlines the classical phosphoric acid/calcium carbonate (H(3)PO(4)/CaCO(3)) reaction method by making use of a recently available Thermoquest-Finnigan GasBench II preparation device and a Delta Plus XL continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer. Conditions for which the H(3)PO(4)/CaCO(3) reaction produced reproducible and accurate results with minimal error had to be determined. When the acid/carbonate reaction temperature was kept at 26 degrees C and the reaction time was between 24 and 54 h, the precision of the carbon and oxygen isotope ratios for pooled samples from three reference standard materials was

Single-variant and multi-variant trend tests for genetic association with next-generation sequencing that are robust to sequencing error.

PubMed

Kim, Wonkuk; Londono, Douglas; Zhou, Lisheng; Xing, Jinchuan; Nato, Alejandro Q; Musolf, Anthony; Matise, Tara C; Finch, Stephen J; Gordon, Derek

2012-01-01

As with any new technology, next-generation sequencing (NGS) has potential advantages and potential challenges. One advantage is the identification of multiple causal variants for disease that might otherwise be missed by SNP-chip technology. One potential challenge is misclassification error (as with any emerging technology) and the issue of power loss due to multiple testing. Here, we develop an extension of the linear trend test for association that incorporates differential misclassification error and may be applied to any number of SNPs. We call the statistic the linear trend test allowing for error, applied to NGS, or LTTae,NGS. This statistic allows for differential misclassification. The observed data are phenotypes for unrelated cases and controls, coverage, and the number of putative causal variants for every individual at all SNPs. We simulate data considering multiple factors (disease mode of inheritance, genotype relative risk, causal variant frequency, sequence error rate in cases, sequence error rate in controls, number of loci, and others) and evaluate type I error rate and power for each vector of factor settings. We compare our results with two recently published NGS statistics. Also, we create a fictitious disease model based on downloaded 1000 Genomes data for 5 SNPs and 388 individuals, and apply our statistic to those data. We find that the LTTae,NGS maintains the correct type I error rate in all simulations (differential and non-differential error), while the other statistics show large inflation in type I error for lower coverage. Power for all three methods is approximately the same for all three statistics in the presence of non-differential error. Application of our statistic to the 1000 Genomes data suggests that, for the data downloaded, there is a 1.5% sequence misclassification rate over all SNPs. Finally, application of the multi-variant form of LTTae,NGS shows high power for a number of simulation settings, although it can have lower power than the corresponding single-variant simulation results, most probably due to our specification of multi-variant SNP correlation values. In conclusion, our LTTae,NGS addresses two key challenges with NGS disease studies; first, it allows for differential misclassification when computing the statistic; and second, it addresses the multiple-testing issue in that there is a multi-variant form of the statistic that has only one degree of freedom, and provides a single p value, no matter how many loci. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Single variant and multi-variant trend tests for genetic association with next generation sequencing that are robust to sequencing error

PubMed Central

Kim, Wonkuk; Londono, Douglas; Zhou, Lisheng; Xing, Jinchuan; Nato, Andrew; Musolf, Anthony; Matise, Tara C.; Finch, Stephen J.; Gordon, Derek

2013-01-01

As with any new technology, next generation sequencing (NGS) has potential advantages and potential challenges. One advantage is the identification of multiple causal variants for disease that might otherwise be missed by SNP-chip technology. One potential challenge is misclassification error (as with any emerging technology) and the issue of power loss due to multiple testing. Here, we develop an extension of the linear trend test for association that incorporates differential misclassification error and may be applied to any number of SNPs. We call the statistic the linear trend test allowing for error, applied to NGS, or LTTae,NGS. This statistic allows for differential misclassification. The observed data are phenotypes for unrelated cases and controls, coverage, and the number of putative causal variants for every individual at all SNPs. We simulate data considering multiple factors (disease mode of inheritance, genotype relative risk, causal variant frequency, sequence error rate in cases, sequence error rate in controls, number of loci, and others) and evaluate type I error rate and power for each vector of factor settings. We compare our results with two recently published NGS statistics. Also, we create a fictitious disease model, based on downloaded 1000 Genomes data for 5 SNPs and 388 individuals, and apply our statistic to that data. We find that the LTTae,NGS maintains the correct type I error rate in all simulations (differential and non-differential error), while the other statistics show large inflation in type I error for lower coverage. Power for all three methods is approximately the same for all three statistics in the presence of non-differential error. Application of our statistic to the 1000 Genomes data suggests that, for the data downloaded, there is a 1.5% sequence misclassification rate over all SNPs. Finally, application of the multi-variant form of LTTae,NGS shows high power for a number of simulation settings, although it can have lower power than the corresponding single variant simulation results, most probably due to our specification of multi-variant SNP correlation values. In conclusion, our LTTae,NGS addresses two key challenges with NGS disease studies; first, it allows for differential misclassification when computing the statistic; and second, it addresses the multiple-testing issue in that there is a multi-variant form of the statistic that has only one degree of freedom, and provides a single p-value, no matter how many loci. PMID:23594495

A feasibility study in adapting Shamos Bickel and Hodges Lehman estimator into T-Method for normalization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harudin, N.; Jamaludin, K. R.; Muhtazaruddin, M. Nabil; Ramlie, F.; Muhamad, Wan Zuki Azman Wan

2018-03-01

T-Method is one of the techniques governed under Mahalanobis Taguchi System that developed specifically for multivariate data predictions. Prediction using T-Method is always possible even with very limited sample size. The user of T-Method required to clearly understanding the population data trend since this method is not considering the effect of outliers within it. Outliers may cause apparent non-normality and the entire classical methods breakdown. There exist robust parameter estimate that provide satisfactory results when the data contain outliers, as well as when the data are free of them. The robust parameter estimates of location and scale measure called Shamos Bickel (SB) and Hodges Lehman (HL) which are used as a comparable method to calculate the mean and standard deviation of classical statistic is part of it. Embedding these into T-Method normalize stage feasibly help in enhancing the accuracy of the T-Method as well as analysing the robustness of T-method itself. However, the result of higher sample size case study shows that T-method is having lowest average error percentages (3.09%) on data with extreme outliers. HL and SB is having lowest error percentages (4.67%) for data without extreme outliers with minimum error differences compared to T-Method. The error percentages prediction trend is vice versa for lower sample size case study. The result shows that with minimum sample size, which outliers always be at low risk, T-Method is much better on that, while higher sample size with extreme outliers, T-Method as well show better prediction compared to others. For the case studies conducted in this research, it shows that normalization of T-Method is showing satisfactory results and it is not feasible to adapt HL and SB or normal mean and standard deviation into it since it’s only provide minimum effect of percentages errors. Normalization using T-method is still considered having lower risk towards outlier’s effect.

Error and its meaning in forensic science.

PubMed

Christensen, Angi M; Crowder, Christian M; Ousley, Stephen D; Houck, Max M

2014-01-01

The discussion of "error" has gained momentum in forensic science in the wake of the Daubert guidelines and has intensified with the National Academy of Sciences' Report. Error has many different meanings, and too often, forensic practitioners themselves as well as the courts misunderstand scientific error and statistical error rates, often confusing them with practitioner error (or mistakes). Here, we present an overview of these concepts as they pertain to forensic science applications, discussing the difference between practitioner error (including mistakes), instrument error, statistical error, and method error. We urge forensic practitioners to ensure that potential sources of error and method limitations are understood and clearly communicated and advocate that the legal community be informed regarding the differences between interobserver errors, uncertainty, variation, and mistakes. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Death Certification Errors and the Effect on Mortality Statistics.

PubMed

McGivern, Lauri; Shulman, Leanne; Carney, Jan K; Shapiro, Steven; Bundock, Elizabeth

Errors in cause and manner of death on death certificates are common and affect families, mortality statistics, and public health research. The primary objective of this study was to characterize errors in the cause and manner of death on death certificates completed by non-Medical Examiners. A secondary objective was to determine the effects of errors on national mortality statistics. We retrospectively compared 601 death certificates completed between July 1, 2015, and January 31, 2016, from the Vermont Electronic Death Registration System with clinical summaries from medical records. Medical Examiners, blinded to original certificates, reviewed summaries, generated mock certificates, and compared mock certificates with original certificates. They then graded errors using a scale from 1 to 4 (higher numbers indicated increased impact on interpretation of the cause) to determine the prevalence of minor and major errors. They also compared International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) codes on original certificates with those on mock certificates. Of 601 original death certificates, 319 (53%) had errors; 305 (51%) had major errors; and 59 (10%) had minor errors. We found no significant differences by certifier type (physician vs nonphysician). We did find significant differences in major errors in place of death ( P < .001). Certificates for deaths occurring in hospitals were more likely to have major errors than certificates for deaths occurring at a private residence (59% vs 39%, P < .001). A total of 580 (93%) death certificates had a change in ICD-10 codes between the original and mock certificates, of which 348 (60%) had a change in the underlying cause-of-death code. Error rates on death certificates in Vermont are high and extend to ICD-10 coding, thereby affecting national mortality statistics. Surveillance and certifier education must expand beyond local and state efforts. Simplifying and standardizing underlying literal text for cause of death may improve accuracy, decrease coding errors, and improve national mortality statistics.

Can a combination of average of normals and "real time" External Quality Assurance replace Internal Quality Control?

PubMed

Badrick, Tony; Graham, Peter

2018-03-28

Internal Quality Control and External Quality Assurance are separate but related processes that have developed independently in laboratory medicine over many years. They have different sample frequencies, statistical interpretations and immediacy. Both processes have evolved absorbing new understandings of the concept of laboratory error, sample material matrix and assay capability. However, we do not believe at the coalface that either process has led to much improvement in patient outcomes recently. It is the increasing reliability and automation of analytical platforms along with improved stability of reagents that has reduced systematic and random error, which in turn has minimised the risk of running less frequent IQC. We suggest that it is time to rethink the role of both these processes and unite them into a single approach using an Average of Normals model supported by more frequent External Quality Assurance samples. This new paradigm may lead to less confusion for laboratory staff and quicker responses to and identification of out of control situations.

A comparison of exact tests for trend with binary endpoints using Bartholomew's statistic.

PubMed

Consiglio, J D; Shan, G; Wilding, G E

2014-01-01

Tests for trend are important in a number of scientific fields when trends associated with binary variables are of interest. Implementing the standard Cochran-Armitage trend test requires an arbitrary choice of scores assigned to represent the grouping variable. Bartholomew proposed a test for qualitatively ordered samples using asymptotic critical values, but type I error control can be problematic in finite samples. To our knowledge, use of the exact probability distribution has not been explored, and we study its use in the present paper. Specifically we consider an approach based on conditioning on both sets of marginal totals and three unconditional approaches where only the marginal totals corresponding to the group sample sizes are treated as fixed. While slightly conservative, all four tests are guaranteed to have actual type I error rates below the nominal level. The unconditional tests are found to exhibit far less conservatism than the conditional test and thereby gain a power advantage.

Location tests for biomarker studies: a comparison using simulations for the two-sample case.

PubMed

Scheinhardt, M O; Ziegler, A

2013-01-01

Gene, protein, or metabolite expression levels are often non-normally distributed, heavy tailed and contain outliers. Standard statistical approaches may fail as location tests in this situation. In three Monte-Carlo simulation studies, we aimed at comparing the type I error levels and empirical power of standard location tests and three adaptive tests [O'Gorman, Can J Stat 1997; 25: 269 -279; Keselman et al., Brit J Math Stat Psychol 2007; 60: 267- 293; Szymczak et al., Stat Med 2013; 32: 524 - 537] for a wide range of distributions. We simulated two-sample scenarios using the g-and-k-distribution family to systematically vary tail length and skewness with identical and varying variability between groups. All tests kept the type I error level when groups did not vary in their variability. The standard non-parametric U-test performed well in all simulated scenarios. It was outperformed by the two non-parametric adaptive methods in case of heavy tails or large skewness. Most tests did not keep the type I error level for skewed data in the case of heterogeneous variances. The standard U-test was a powerful and robust location test for most of the simulated scenarios except for very heavy tailed or heavy skewed data, and it is thus to be recommended except for these cases. The non-parametric adaptive tests were powerful for both normal and non-normal distributions under sample variance homogeneity. But when sample variances differed, they did not keep the type I error level. The parametric adaptive test lacks power for skewed and heavy tailed distributions.

Performance of statistical models to predict mental health and substance abuse cost.

PubMed

Montez-Rath, Maria; Christiansen, Cindy L; Ettner, Susan L; Loveland, Susan; Rosen, Amy K

2006-10-26

Providers use risk-adjustment systems to help manage healthcare costs. Typically, ordinary least squares (OLS) models on either untransformed or log-transformed cost are used. We examine the predictive ability of several statistical models, demonstrate how model choice depends on the goal for the predictive model, and examine whether building models on samples of the data affects model choice. Our sample consisted of 525,620 Veterans Health Administration patients with mental health (MH) or substance abuse (SA) diagnoses who incurred costs during fiscal year 1999. We tested two models on a transformation of cost: a Log Normal model and a Square-root Normal model, and three generalized linear models on untransformed cost, defined by distributional assumption and link function: Normal with identity link (OLS); Gamma with log link; and Gamma with square-root link. Risk-adjusters included age, sex, and 12 MH/SA categories. To determine the best model among the entire dataset, predictive ability was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), and predictive ratios of predicted to observed cost (PR) among deciles of predicted cost, by comparing point estimates and 95% bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals. To study the effect of analyzing a random sample of the population on model choice, we re-computed these statistics using random samples beginning with 5,000 patients and ending with the entire sample. The Square-root Normal model had the lowest estimates of the RMSE and MAPE, with bootstrap confidence intervals that were always lower than those for the other models. The Gamma with square-root link was best as measured by the PRs. The choice of best model could vary if smaller samples were used and the Gamma with square-root link model had convergence problems with small samples. Models with square-root transformation or link fit the data best. This function (whether used as transformation or as a link) seems to help deal with the high comorbidity of this population by introducing a form of interaction. The Gamma distribution helps with the long tail of the distribution. However, the Normal distribution is suitable if the correct transformation of the outcome is used.

Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model. Part 1; Objective Verification at Three Selected Stations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nutter, Paul A.; Manobianco, John; Merceret, Francis J. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

This paper describes an objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 29-km eta model from May 1996 through January 1998. The evaluation was designed to assess the model's surface and upper-air point forecast accuracy at three selected locations during separate warm (May - August) and cool (October - January) season periods. In order to enhance sample sizes available for statistical calculations, the objective verification includes two consecutive warm and cool season periods. Systematic model deficiencies comprise the larger portion of the total error in most of the surface forecast variables that were evaluated. The error characteristics for both surface and upper-air forecasts vary widely by parameter, season, and station location. At upper levels, a few characteristic biases are identified. Overall however, the upper-level errors are more nonsystematic in nature and could be explained partly by observational measurement uncertainty. With a few exceptions, the upper-air results also indicate that 24-h model error growth is not statistically significant. In February and August 1997, NCEP implemented upgrades to the eta model's physical parameterizations that were designed to change some of the model's error characteristics near the surface. The results shown in this paper indicate that these upgrades led to identifiable and statistically significant changes in forecast accuracy for selected surface parameters. While some of the changes were expected, others were not consistent with the intent of the model updates and further emphasize the need for ongoing sensitivity studies and localized statistical verification efforts. Objective verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, is not enough to quantify the overall value that model guidance may add to the forecast process. Therefore, results from a subjective verification of the meso-eta model over the Florida peninsula are discussed in the companion paper by Manobianco and Nutter. Overall verification results presented here and in part two should establish a reasonable benchmark from which model users and developers may pursue the ongoing eta model verification strategies in the future.

Robustness of S1 statistic with Hodges-Lehmann for skewed distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahad, Nor Aishah; Yahaya, Sharipah Soaad Syed; Yin, Lee Ping

2016-10-01

Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a common use parametric method to test the differences in means for more than two groups when the populations are normally distributed. ANOVA is highly inefficient under the influence of non- normal and heteroscedastic settings. When the assumptions are violated, researchers are looking for alternative such as Kruskal-Wallis under nonparametric or robust method. This study focused on flexible method, S1 statistic for comparing groups using median as the location estimator. S1 statistic was modified by substituting the median with Hodges-Lehmann and the default scale estimator with the variance of Hodges-Lehmann and MADn to produce two different test statistics for comparing groups. Bootstrap method was used for testing the hypotheses since the sampling distributions of these modified S1 statistics are unknown. The performance of the proposed statistic in terms of Type I error was measured and compared against the original S1 statistic, ANOVA and Kruskal-Wallis. The propose procedures show improvement compared to the original statistic especially under extremely skewed distribution.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holanda, R. F. L.; Lima, J. A. S.; Ribeiro, M. B., E-mail: limajas@astro.iag.usp.b

In this Letter, we propose a new and model-independent cosmological test for the distance-duality (DD) relation, {eta} = D{sub L} (z)(1 + z){sup -2}/D{sub A} (z) = 1, where D{sub L} and D{sub A} are, respectively, the luminosity and angular diameter distances. For D{sub L} we consider two sub-samples of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) taken from Constitution data whereas D{sub A} distances are provided by two samples of galaxy clusters compiled by De Filippis et al. and Bonamente et al. by combining Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect and X-ray surface brightness. The SNe Ia redshifts of each sub-sample were carefully chosen tomore » coincide with the ones of the associated galaxy cluster sample ({Delta}z < 0.005), thereby allowing a direct test of the DD relation. Since for very low redshifts, D{sub A} (z) ape D{sub L} (z), we have tested the DD relation by assuming that {eta} is a function of the redshift parameterized by two different expressions: {eta}(z) = 1 + {eta}{sub 0} z and {eta}(z) = 1 + {eta}{sub 0} z/(1 + z), where {eta}{sub 0} is a constant parameter quantifying a possible departure from the strict validity of the reciprocity relation ({eta}{sub 0} = 0). In the best scenario (linear parameterization), we obtain {eta}{sub 0} = -0.28{sup +0.44} {sub -0.44} (2{sigma}, statistical + systematic errors) for the De Filippis et al. sample (elliptical geometry), a result only marginally compatible with the DD relation. However, for the Bonamente et al. sample (spherical geometry) the constraint is {eta}{sub 0} = -0.42{sup +0.34} {sub -0.34} (3{sigma}, statistical + systematic errors), which is clearly incompatible with the duality-distance relation.« less

Toward polarizable AMOEBA thermodynamics at fixed charge efficiency using a dual force field approach: application to organic crystals.

PubMed

Nessler, Ian J; Litman, Jacob M; Schnieders, Michael J

2016-11-09

First principles prediction of the structure, thermodynamics and solubility of organic molecular crystals, which play a central role in chemical, material, pharmaceutical and engineering sciences, challenges both potential energy functions and sampling methodologies. Here we calculate absolute crystal deposition thermodynamics using a novel dual force field approach whose goal is to maintain the accuracy of advanced multipole force fields (e.g. the polarizable AMOEBA model) while performing more than 95% of the sampling in an inexpensive fixed charge (FC) force field (e.g. OPLS-AA). Absolute crystal sublimation/deposition phase transition free energies were determined using an alchemical path that grows the crystalline state from a vapor reference state based on sampling with the OPLS-AA force field, followed by dual force field thermodynamic corrections to change between FC and AMOEBA resolutions at both end states (we denote the three step path as AMOEBA/FC). Importantly, whereas the phase transition requires on the order of 200 ns of sampling per compound, only 5 ns of sampling was needed for the dual force field thermodynamic corrections to reach a mean statistical uncertainty of 0.05 kcal mol -1 . For five organic compounds, the mean unsigned error between direct use of AMOEBA and the AMOEBA/FC dual force field path was only 0.2 kcal mol -1 and not statistically significant. Compared to experimental deposition thermodynamics, the mean unsigned error for AMOEBA/FC (1.4 kcal mol -1 ) was more than a factor of two smaller than uncorrected OPLS-AA (3.2 kcal mol -1 ). Overall, the dual force field thermodynamic corrections reduced condensed phase sampling in the expensive force field by a factor of 40, and may prove useful for protein stability or binding thermodynamics in the future.

3DXRD at the Advanced Photon Source: Orientation Mapping and Deformation Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-01

statistics in the same sample (Hefferan et al. (2010)). This low orientation uncertainty or error bar might be surprising at first since we do measurements...may be a combination of noise and real gradients. Some of the intra‐ granular  disorder  in  (b)  should  be  interpreted  as  statistical   and  only...cooling (AC), but are not present after ice water quenching (IWQ). The presence of SRO domains is known to lead to planar slip bands during tensile

Statistics and bioinformatics in nutritional sciences: analysis of complex data in the era of systems biology⋆

PubMed Central

Fu, Wenjiang J.; Stromberg, Arnold J.; Viele, Kert; Carroll, Raymond J.; Wu, Guoyao

2009-01-01

Over the past two decades, there have been revolutionary developments in life science technologies characterized by high throughput, high efficiency, and rapid computation. Nutritionists now have the advanced methodologies for the analysis of DNA, RNA, protein, low-molecular-weight metabolites, as well as access to bioinformatics databases. Statistics, which can be defined as the process of making scientific inferences from data that contain variability, has historically played an integral role in advancing nutritional sciences. Currently, in the era of systems biology, statistics has become an increasingly important tool to quantitatively analyze information about biological macromolecules. This article describes general terms used in statistical analysis of large, complex experimental data. These terms include experimental design, power analysis, sample size calculation, and experimental errors (type I and II errors) for nutritional studies at population, tissue, cellular, and molecular levels. In addition, we highlighted various sources of experimental variations in studies involving microarray gene expression, real-time polymerase chain reaction, proteomics, and other bioinformatics technologies. Moreover, we provided guidelines for nutritionists and other biomedical scientists to plan and conduct studies and to analyze the complex data. Appropriate statistical analyses are expected to make an important contribution to solving major nutrition-associated problems in humans and animals (including obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, ageing, and intrauterine fetal retardation). PMID:20233650

[Confirmatory factor analysis of the short French version of the Center for Epidemiological Studies of Depression Scale (CES-D10) in adolescents].

PubMed

Cartierre, N; Coulon, N; Demerval, R

2011-09-01

Screening depressivity among adolescents is a key public health priority. In order to measure the severity of depressive symptomatology, a four-dimensional 20 items scale called "Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale" (CES-D) was developed. A shorter 10-item version was developed and validated (Andresen et al.). For this brief version, several authors supported a two-factor structure - Negative and Positive affect - but the relationship between the two reversed-worded items of the Positive affect factor could be better accounted for by correlated errors. The aim of this study is triple: firstly to test a French version of the CES-D10 among adolescents; secondly to test the relevance of a one-dimensional structure by considering error correlation for Positive affect items; finally to examine the extent to which this structural model is invariant across gender. The sample was composed of 269 French middle school adolescents (139 girls and 130 boys, mean age: 13.8, SD=0.65). Confirmatory Factorial Analyses (CFA) using the LISREL 8.52 were conducted in order to assess the adjustment to the data of three factor models: a one-factor model, a two-factor model (Positive and Negative affect) and a one-factor model with specification of correlated errors between the two reverse-worded items. Then, multigroup analysis was conducted to test the scale invariance for girls and boys. Internal consistency of the CES-D10 was satisfying for the adolescent sample (α=0.75). The best fitting model is the one-factor model with correlated errors between the two items of the previous Positive affect factor (χ(2)/dl=2.50; GFI=0.939; CFI=0.894; RMSEA=0.076). This model presented a better statistical fit to the data than the one-factor model without error correlation: χ(2)(diff) (1)=22.14, p<0.001. Then, the one-factor model with correlated errors was analyzed across separate samples of girls and boys. The model explains the data somewhat better for boys than for girls. The model's overall χ(2)(68) without equality constraints from the multigroup analysis was 107.98. The χ(2)(89) statistic for the model with equality-constrained factor loadings was 121.31. The change in the overall Chi(2) is not statistically significant. This result implies that the model is, therefore, invariant across gender. The mean scores were higher for girls than boys: 9.69 versus 7.19; t(267)=4.13, p<0.001. To conclude, and waiting for further research using the French version of the CES-D10 for adolescents, it appears that this short scale is generally acceptable and can be a useful tool for both research and practice. The scale invariance across gender has been demonstrated but the invariance across age must be tested too. Copyright © 2011 L’Encéphale, Paris. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Linear models for airborne-laser-scanning-based operational forest inventory with small field sample size and highly correlated LiDAR data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Junttila, Virpi; Kauranne, Tuomo; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Modern operational forest inventory often uses remotely sensed data that cover the whole inventory area to produce spatially explicit estimates of forest properties through statistical models. The data obtained by airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) correlate well with many forest inventory variables, such as the tree height, the timber volume, and the biomass. To construct an accurate model over thousands of hectares, LiDAR data must be supplemented with several hundred field sample measurements of forest inventory variables. This can be costly and time consuming. Different LiDAR-data-based and spatial-data-based sampling designs can reduce the number of field sample plots needed. However, problems arising from the features of the LiDAR data, such as a large number of predictors compared with the sample size (overfitting) or a strong correlation among predictors (multicollinearity), may decrease the accuracy and precision of the estimates and predictions. To overcome these problems, a Bayesian linear model with the singular value decomposition of predictors, combined with regularization, is proposed. The model performance in predicting different forest inventory variables is verified in ten inventory areas from two continents, where the number of field sample plots is reduced using different sampling designs. The results show that, with an appropriate field plot selection strategy and the proposed linear model, the total relative error of the predicted forest inventory variables is only 5%–15% larger using 50 field sample plots than the error of a linear model estimated with several hundred field sample plots when we sum up the error due to both the model noise variance and the model’s lack of fit.

Probabilistic global maps of the CO2 column at daily and monthly scales from sparse satellite measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevallier, Frédéric; Broquet, Grégoire; Pierangelo, Clémence; Crisp, David

2017-07-01

The column-average dry air-mole fraction of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (XCO2) is measured by scattered satellite measurements like those from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2). We show that global continuous maps of XCO2 (corresponding to level 3 of the satellite data) at daily or coarser temporal resolution can be inferred from these data with a Kalman filter built on a model of persistence. Our application of this approach on 2 years of OCO-2 retrievals indicates that the filter provides better information than a climatology of XCO2 at both daily and monthly scales. Provided that the assigned observation uncertainty statistics are tuned in each grid cell of the XCO2 maps from an objective method (based on consistency diagnostics), the errors predicted by the filter at daily and monthly scales represent the true error statistics reasonably well, except for a bias in the high latitudes of the winter hemisphere and a lack of resolution (i.e., a too small discrimination skill) of the predicted error standard deviations. Due to the sparse satellite sampling, the broad-scale patterns of XCO2 described by the filter seem to lag behind the real signals by a few weeks. Finally, the filter offers interesting insights into the quality of the retrievals, both in terms of random and systematic errors.

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.

1999-01-01

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Analyzing Kernel Matrices for the Identification of Differentially Expressed Genes

PubMed Central

Xia, Xiao-Lei; Xing, Huanlai; Liu, Xueqin

2013-01-01

One of the most important applications of microarray data is the class prediction of biological samples. For this purpose, statistical tests have often been applied to identify the differentially expressed genes (DEGs), followed by the employment of the state-of-the-art learning machines including the Support Vector Machines (SVM) in particular. The SVM is a typical sample-based classifier whose performance comes down to how discriminant samples are. However, DEGs identified by statistical tests are not guaranteed to result in a training dataset composed of discriminant samples. To tackle this problem, a novel gene ranking method namely the Kernel Matrix Gene Selection (KMGS) is proposed. The rationale of the method, which roots in the fundamental ideas of the SVM algorithm, is described. The notion of ''the separability of a sample'' which is estimated by performing -like statistics on each column of the kernel matrix, is first introduced. The separability of a classification problem is then measured, from which the significance of a specific gene is deduced. Also described is a method of Kernel Matrix Sequential Forward Selection (KMSFS) which shares the KMGS method's essential ideas but proceeds in a greedy manner. On three public microarray datasets, our proposed algorithms achieved noticeably competitive performance in terms of the B.632+ error rate. PMID:24349110

A contribution to the calculation of measurement uncertainty and optimization of measuring strategies in coordinate measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Waeldele, F.

1983-01-01

The influence of sample shape deviations on the measurement uncertainties and the optimization of computer aided coordinate measurement were investigated for a circle and a cylinder. Using the complete error propagation law in matrix form the parameter uncertainties are calculated, taking the correlation between the measurement points into account. Theoretical investigations show that the measuring points have to be equidistantly distributed and that for a cylindrical body a measuring point distribution along a cross section is better than along a helical line. The theoretically obtained expressions to calculate the uncertainties prove to be a good estimation basis. The simple error theory is not satisfactory for estimation. The complete statistical data analysis theory helps to avoid aggravating measurement errors and to adjust the number of measuring points to the required measuring uncertainty.

Identifying presence of correlated errors in GRACE monthly harmonic coefficients using machine learning algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piretzidis, Dimitrios; Sra, Gurveer; Karantaidis, George; Sideris, Michael G.

2017-04-01

A new method for identifying correlated errors in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly harmonic coefficients has been developed and tested. Correlated errors are present in the differences between monthly GRACE solutions, and can be suppressed using a de-correlation filter. In principle, the de-correlation filter should be implemented only on coefficient series with correlated errors to avoid losing useful geophysical information. In previous studies, two main methods of implementing the de-correlation filter have been utilized. In the first one, the de-correlation filter is implemented starting from a specific minimum order until the maximum order of the monthly solution examined. In the second one, the de-correlation filter is implemented only on specific coefficient series, the selection of which is based on statistical testing. The method proposed in the present study exploits the capabilities of supervised machine learning algorithms such as neural networks and support vector machines (SVMs). The pattern of correlated errors can be described by several numerical and geometric features of the harmonic coefficient series. The features of extreme cases of both correlated and uncorrelated coefficients are extracted and used for the training of the machine learning algorithms. The trained machine learning algorithms are later used to identify correlated errors and provide the probability of a coefficient series to be correlated. Regarding SVMs algorithms, an extensive study is performed with various kernel functions in order to find the optimal training model for prediction. The selection of the optimal training model is based on the classification accuracy of the trained SVM algorithm on the same samples used for training. Results show excellent performance of all algorithms with a classification accuracy of 97% - 100% on a pre-selected set of training samples, both in the validation stage of the training procedure and in the subsequent use of the trained algorithms to classify independent coefficients. This accuracy is also confirmed by the external validation of the trained algorithms using the hydrology model GLDAS NOAH. The proposed method meet the requirement of identifying and de-correlating only coefficients with correlated errors. Also, there is no need of applying statistical testing or other techniques that require prior de-correlation of the harmonic coefficients.

Accuracy assessment, using stratified plurality sampling, of portions of a LANDSAT classification of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Card, Don H.; Strong, Laurence L.

1989-01-01

An application of a classification accuracy assessment procedure is described for a vegetation and land cover map prepared by digital image processing of LANDSAT multispectral scanner data. A statistical sampling procedure called Stratified Plurality Sampling was used to assess the accuracy of portions of a map of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge coastal plain. Results are tabulated as percent correct classification overall as well as per category with associated confidence intervals. Although values of percent correct were disappointingly low for most categories, the study was useful in highlighting sources of classification error and demonstrating shortcomings of the plurality sampling method.

Evaluating the Effective Factors for Reporting Medical Errors among Midwives Working at Teaching Hospitals Affiliated to Isfahan University of Medical Sciences.

PubMed

Khorasani, Fahimeh; Beigi, Marjan

2017-01-01

Recently, evaluation and accreditation system of hospitals has had a special emphasis on reporting malpractices and sharing errors or lessons learnt from errors, but still due to lack of promotion of systematic approach for solving problems from the same system, this issue has remained unattended. This study was conducted to determine the effective factors for reporting medical errors among midwives. This project was a descriptive cross-sectional observational study. Data gathering tools were a standard checklist and two researcher-made questionnaires. Sampling for this study was conducted from all the midwives who worked at teaching hospitals affiliated to Isfahan University of Medical Sciences through census method (convenient) and lasted for 3 months. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics through SPSS 16. Results showed that 79.1% of the staff reported errors and the highest rate of errors was in the process of patients' tests. In this study, the mean score of midwives' knowledge about the errors was 79.1 and the mean score of their attitude toward reporting errors was 70.4. There was a direct relation between the score of errors' knowledge and attitude in the midwifery staff and reporting errors. Based on the results of this study about the appropriate knowledge and attitude of midwifery staff regarding errors and action toward reporting them, it is recommended to strengthen the system when it comes to errors and hospitals risks.

Qualitative fusion technique based on information poor system and its application to factor analysis for vibration of rolling bearings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Xintao; Wang, Zhongyu

2008-10-01

For some methods of stability analysis of a system using statistics, it is difficult to resolve the problems of unknown probability distribution and small sample. Therefore, a novel method is proposed in this paper to resolve these problems. This method is independent of probability distribution, and is useful for small sample systems. After rearrangement of the original data series, the order difference and two polynomial membership functions are introduced to estimate the true value, the lower bound and the supper bound of the system using fuzzy-set theory. Then empirical distribution function is investigated to ensure confidence level above 95%, and the degree of similarity is presented to evaluate stability of the system. Cases of computer simulation investigate stable systems with various probability distribution, unstable systems with linear systematic errors and periodic systematic errors and some mixed systems. The method of analysis for systematic stability is approved.

Testing the significance of a correlation with nonnormal data: comparison of Pearson, Spearman, transformation, and resampling approaches.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2012-09-01

It is well known that when data are nonnormally distributed, a test of the significance of Pearson's r may inflate Type I error rates and reduce power. Statistics textbooks and the simulation literature provide several alternatives to Pearson's correlation. However, the relative performance of these alternatives has been unclear. Two simulation studies were conducted to compare 12 methods, including Pearson, Spearman's rank-order, transformation, and resampling approaches. With most sample sizes (n ≥ 20), Type I and Type II error rates were minimized by transforming the data to a normal shape prior to assessing the Pearson correlation. Among transformation approaches, a general purpose rank-based inverse normal transformation (i.e., transformation to rankit scores) was most beneficial. However, when samples were both small (n ≤ 10) and extremely nonnormal, the permutation test often outperformed other alternatives, including various bootstrap tests.

An optical/NIR survey of globular clusters in early-type galaxies. III. On the colour bimodality of globular cluster systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chies-Santos, A. L.; Larsen, S. S.; Cantiello, M.; Strader, J.; Kuntschner, H.; Wehner, E. M.; Brodie, J. P.

2012-03-01

Context. The interpretation that bimodal colour distributions of globular clusters (GCs) reflect bimodal metallicity distributions has been challenged. Non-linearities in the colour to metallicity conversions caused for example by the horizontal branch (HB) stars may be responsible for transforming a unimodal metallicity distribution into a bimodal (optical) colour distribution. Aims: We study optical/near-infrared (NIR) colour distributions of the GC systems in 14 E/S0 galaxies. Methods: We test whether the bimodal feature, generally present in optical colour distributions, remains in the optical/NIR ones. The latter colour combination is a better metallicity proxy than the former. We use KMM and GMM tests to quantify the probability that different colour distributions are better described by a bimodal, as opposed to a unimodal distribution. Results: We find that double-peaked colour distributions are more commonly seen in optical than in optical/NIR colours. For some of the galaxies where the optical (g - z) distribution is clearly bimodal, a bimodal distribution is not preferred over a unimodal one at a statistically significant level for the (g - K) and (z - K) distributions. The two most cluster-rich galaxies in our sample, NGC 4486 and NGC 4649, show some interesting differences. The (g - K) distribution of NGC 4649 is better described by a bimodal distribution, while this is true for the (g - K) distribution of NGC 4486 GCs only if restricted to a brighter sub-sample with small K-band errors (<0.05 mag). Formally, the K-band photometric errors cannot be responsible for blurring bimodal metallicity distributions to unimodal (g - K) colour distributions. However, simulations including the extra scatter in the colour-colour diagrams (not fully accounted for in the photometric errors) show that such scatter may contribute to the disappearance of bimodality in (g - K) for the full NGC 4486 sample. For the less cluster-rich galaxies results are inconclusive due to poorer statistics. Conclusions: A bimodal optical colour distribution is not necessarily an indication of an underlying bimodal metallicity distribution. Horizontal branch morphology may play an important role in shaping some of the optical GC colour distributions. However, we find tentative evidence that the (g - K) colour distributions remain bimodal in the two cluster-rich galaxies in our sample (NGC 4486 and NGC 4649) when restricted to clusters with small K-band photometric errors. This bimodality becomes less pronounced when including objects with larger errors, or for the (z - K) colour distributions. Deeper observations of large numbers of GCs will be required to reach more secure conclusions.

Unifying error structures in commonly used biotracer mixing models.

PubMed

Stock, Brian C; Semmens, Brice X

2016-10-01

Mixing models are statistical tools that use biotracers to probabilistically estimate the contribution of multiple sources to a mixture. These biotracers may include contaminants, fatty acids, or stable isotopes, the latter of which are widely used in trophic ecology to estimate the mixed diet of consumers. Bayesian implementations of mixing models using stable isotopes (e.g., MixSIR, SIAR) are regularly used by ecologists for this purpose, but basic questions remain about when each is most appropriate. In this study, we describe the structural differences between common mixing model error formulations in terms of their assumptions about the predation process. We then introduce a new parameterization that unifies these mixing model error structures, as well as implicitly estimates the rate at which consumers sample from source populations (i.e., consumption rate). Using simulations and previously published mixing model datasets, we demonstrate that the new error parameterization outperforms existing models and provides an estimate of consumption. Our results suggest that the error structure introduced here will improve future mixing model estimates of animal diet. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Quantum error-correction failure distributions: Comparison of coherent and stochastic error models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Jeff P.; Trout, Colin J.; Lucarelli, Dennis; Clader, B. D.

2017-06-01

We compare failure distributions of quantum error correction circuits for stochastic errors and coherent errors. We utilize a fully coherent simulation of a fault-tolerant quantum error correcting circuit for a d =3 Steane and surface code. We find that the output distributions are markedly different for the two error models, showing that no simple mapping between the two error models exists. Coherent errors create very broad and heavy-tailed failure distributions. This suggests that they are susceptible to outlier events and that mean statistics, such as pseudothreshold estimates, may not provide the key figure of merit. This provides further statistical insight into why coherent errors can be so harmful for quantum error correction. These output probability distributions may also provide a useful metric that can be utilized when optimizing quantum error correcting codes and decoding procedures for purely coherent errors.

Using the Bootstrap Method to Evaluate the Critical Range of Misfit for Polytomous Rasch Fit Statistics.

PubMed

Seol, Hyunsoo

2016-06-01

The purpose of this study was to apply the bootstrap procedure to evaluate how the bootstrapped confidence intervals (CIs) for polytomous Rasch fit statistics might differ according to sample sizes and test lengths in comparison with the rule-of-thumb critical value of misfit. A total of 25 simulated data sets were generated to fit the Rasch measurement and then a total of 1,000 replications were conducted to compute the bootstrapped CIs under each of 25 testing conditions. The results showed that rule-of-thumb critical values for assessing the magnitude of misfit were not applicable because the infit and outfit mean square error statistics showed different magnitudes of variability over testing conditions and the standardized fit statistics did not exactly follow the standard normal distribution. Further, they also do not share the same critical range for the item and person misfit. Based on the results of the study, the bootstrapped CIs can be used to identify misfitting items or persons as they offer a reasonable alternative solution, especially when the distributions of the infit and outfit statistics are not well known and depend on sample size. © The Author(s) 2016.

[Character of refractive errors in population study performed by the Area Military Medical Commission in Lodz].

PubMed

Nowak, Michał S; Goś, Roman; Smigielski, Janusz

2008-01-01

To determine the prevalence of refractive errors in population. A retrospective review of medical examinations for entry to the military service from The Area Military Medical Commission in Lodz. Ophthalmic examinations were performed. We used statistic analysis to review the results. Statistic analysis revealed that refractive errors occurred in 21.68% of the population. The most commen refractive error was myopia. 1) The most commen ocular diseases are refractive errors, especially myopia (21.68% in total). 2) Refractive surgery and contact lenses should be allowed as the possible correction of refractive errors for military service.

Use of Whatman-41 filters in air quality sampling networks (with applications to elemental analysis)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neustadter, H. E.; Sidik, S. M.; King, R. B.; Fordyce, J. S.; Burr, J. C.

1974-01-01

The operation of a 16-site parallel high volume air sampling network with glass fiber filters on one unit and Whatman-41 filters on the other is reported. The network data and data from several other experiments indicate that (1) Sampler-to-sampler and filter-to-filter variabilities are small; (2) hygroscopic affinity of Whatman-41 filters need not introduce errors; and (3) suspended particulate samples from glass fiber filters averaged slightly, but not statistically significantly, higher than from Whatman-41-filters. The results obtained demonstrate the practicability of Whatman-41 filters for air quality monitoring and elemental analysis.

Cost–Effective Prediction of Gender-Labeling Errors and Estimation of Gender-Labeling Error Rates in Candidate-Gene Association Studies

PubMed Central

Qu, Conghui; Schuetz, Johanna M.; Min, Jeong Eun; Leach, Stephen; Daley, Denise; Spinelli, John J.; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Graham, Jinko

2011-01-01

We describe a statistical approach to predict gender-labeling errors in candidate-gene association studies, when Y-chromosome markers have not been included in the genotyping set. The approach adds value to methods that consider only the heterozygosity of X-chromosome SNPs, by incorporating available information about the intensity of X-chromosome SNPs in candidate genes relative to autosomal SNPs from the same individual. To our knowledge, no published methods formalize a framework in which heterozygosity and relative intensity are simultaneously taken into account. Our method offers the advantage that, in the genotyping set, no additional space is required beyond that already assigned to X-chromosome SNPs in the candidate genes. We also show how the predictions can be used in a two-phase sampling design to estimate the gender-labeling error rates for an entire study, at a fraction of the cost of a conventional design. PMID:22303327

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

Systematic evaluation of NASA precipitation radar estimates using NOAA/NSSL National Mosaic QPE products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirstetter, P.; Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Chen, S.; Flamig, Z.; Zhang, J.; Howard, K.; Petersen, W. A.

2011-12-01

Proper characterization of the error structure of TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is needed for their use in TRMM combined products, water budget studies and hydrological modeling applications. Due to the variety of sources of error in spaceborne radar QPE (attenuation of the radar signal, influence of land surface, impact of off-nadir viewing angle, etc.) and the impact of correction algorithms, the problem is addressed by comparison of PR QPEs with reference values derived from ground-based measurements (GV) using NOAA/NSSL's National Mosaic QPE (NMQ) system. An investigation of this subject has been carried out at the PR estimation scale (instantaneous and 5 km) on the basis of a 3-month-long data sample. A significant effort has been carried out to derive a bias-corrected, robust reference rainfall source from NMQ. The GV processing details will be presented along with preliminary results of PR's error characteristics using contingency table statistics, probability distribution comparisons, scatter plots, semi-variograms, and systematic biases and random errors.

Hybrid Gibbs Sampling and MCMC for CMB Analysis at Small Angular Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jewell, Jeffrey B.; Eriksen, H. K.; Wandelt, B. D.; Gorski, K. M.; Huey, G.; O'Dwyer, I. J.; Dickinson, C.; Banday, A. J.; Lawrence, C. R.

2008-01-01

A) Gibbs Sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for "low-L" (as demonstrated on WMAP temperature polarization data). B) We are extending Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters for the entire range of angular scales relevant for Planck. C) Made possible by inclusion of foreground model parameters in Gibbs sampling and hybrid MCMC and Gibbs sampling for the low signal to noise (high-L) regime. D) Future items to be included in the Bayesian framework include: 1) Integration with Hybrid Likelihood (or posterior) code for cosmological parameters; 2) Include other uncertainties in instrumental systematics? (I.e. beam uncertainties, noise estimation, calibration errors, other).

Normality Tests for Statistical Analysis: A Guide for Non-Statisticians

PubMed Central

Ghasemi, Asghar; Zahediasl, Saleh

2012-01-01

Statistical errors are common in scientific literature and about 50% of the published articles have at least one error. The assumption of normality needs to be checked for many statistical procedures, namely parametric tests, because their validity depends on it. The aim of this commentary is to overview checking for normality in statistical analysis using SPSS. PMID:23843808

Power of tests for comparing trend curves with application to national immunization survey (NIS).

PubMed

Zhao, Zhen

2011-02-28

To develop statistical tests for comparing trend curves of study outcomes between two socio-demographic strata across consecutive time points, and compare statistical power of the proposed tests under different trend curves data, three statistical tests were proposed. For large sample size with independent normal assumption among strata and across consecutive time points, the Z and Chi-square test statistics were developed, which are functions of outcome estimates and the standard errors at each of the study time points for the two strata. For small sample size with independent normal assumption, the F-test statistic was generated, which is a function of sample size of the two strata and estimated parameters across study period. If two trend curves are approximately parallel, the power of Z-test is consistently higher than that of both Chi-square and F-test. If two trend curves cross at low interaction, the power of Z-test is higher than or equal to the power of both Chi-square and F-test; however, at high interaction, the powers of Chi-square and F-test are higher than that of Z-test. The measurement of interaction of two trend curves was defined. These tests were applied to the comparison of trend curves of vaccination coverage estimates of standard vaccine series with National Immunization Survey (NIS) 2000-2007 data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting protein concentrations with ELISA microarray assays, monotonic splines and Monte Carlo simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daly, Don S.; Anderson, Kevin K.; White, Amanda M.

Background: A microarray of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays, or ELISA microarray, predicts simultaneously the concentrations of numerous proteins in a small sample. These predictions, however, are uncertain due to processing error and biological variability. Making sound biological inferences as well as improving the ELISA microarray process require require both concentration predictions and creditable estimates of their errors. Methods: We present a statistical method based on monotonic spline statistical models, penalized constrained least squares fitting (PCLS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MC) to predict concentrations and estimate prediction errors in ELISA microarray. PCLS restrains the flexible spline to a fit of assay intensitymore » that is a monotone function of protein concentration. With MC, both modeling and measurement errors are combined to estimate prediction error. The spline/PCLS/MC method is compared to a common method using simulated and real ELISA microarray data sets. Results: In contrast to the rigid logistic model, the flexible spline model gave credible fits in almost all test cases including troublesome cases with left and/or right censoring, or other asymmetries. For the real data sets, 61% of the spline predictions were more accurate than their comparable logistic predictions; especially the spline predictions at the extremes of the prediction curve. The relative errors of 50% of comparable spline and logistic predictions differed by less than 20%. Monte Carlo simulation rendered acceptable asymmetric prediction intervals for both spline and logistic models while propagation of error produced symmetric intervals that diverged unrealistically as the standard curves approached horizontal asymptotes. Conclusions: The spline/PCLS/MC method is a flexible, robust alternative to a logistic/NLS/propagation-of-error method to reliably predict protein concentrations and estimate their errors. The spline method simplifies model selection and fitting, and reliably estimates believable prediction errors. For the 50% of the real data sets fit well by both methods, spline and logistic predictions are practically indistinguishable, varying in accuracy by less than 15%. The spline method may be useful when automated prediction across simultaneous assays of numerous proteins must be applied routinely with minimal user intervention.« less

Defining And Characterizing Sample Representativeness For DWPF Melter Feed Samples

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shine, E. P.; Poirier, M. R.

2013-10-29

Representative sampling is important throughout the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) process, and the demonstrated success of the DWPF process to achieve glass product quality over the past two decades is a direct result of the quality of information obtained from the process. The objective of this report was to present sampling methods that the Savannah River Site (SRS) used to qualify waste being dispositioned at the DWPF. The goal was to emphasize the methodology, not a list of outcomes from those studies. This methodology includes proven methods for taking representative samples, the use of controlled analytical methods, and datamore » interpretation and reporting that considers the uncertainty of all error sources. Numerous sampling studies were conducted during the development of the DWPF process and still continue to be performed in order to evaluate options for process improvement. Study designs were based on use of statistical tools applicable to the determination of uncertainties associated with the data needs. Successful designs are apt to be repeated, so this report chose only to include prototypic case studies that typify the characteristics of frequently used designs. Case studies have been presented for studying in-tank homogeneity, evaluating the suitability of sampler systems, determining factors that affect mixing and sampling, comparing the final waste glass product chemical composition and durability to that of the glass pour stream sample and other samples from process vessels, and assessing the uniformity of the chemical composition in the waste glass product. Many of these studies efficiently addressed more than one of these areas of concern associated with demonstrating sample representativeness and provide examples of statistical tools in use for DWPF. The time when many of these designs were implemented was in an age when the sampling ideas of Pierre Gy were not as widespread as they are today. Nonetheless, the engineers and statisticians used carefully thought out designs that systematically and economically provided plans for data collection from the DWPF process. Key shared features of the sampling designs used at DWPF and the Gy sampling methodology were the specification of a standard for sample representativeness, an investigation that produced data from the process to study the sampling function, and a decision framework used to assess whether the specification was met based on the data. Without going into detail with regard to the seven errors identified by Pierre Gy, as excellent summaries are readily available such as Pitard [1989] and Smith [2001], SRS engineers understood, for example, that samplers can be biased (Gy's extraction error), and developed plans to mitigate those biases. Experiments that compared installed samplers with more representative samples obtained directly from the tank may not have resulted in systematically partitioning sampling errors into the now well-known error categories of Gy, but did provide overall information on the suitability of sampling systems. Most of the designs in this report are related to the DWPF vessels, not the large SRS Tank Farm tanks. Samples from the DWPF Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME), which contains the feed to the DWPF melter, are characterized using standardized analytical methods with known uncertainty. The analytical error is combined with the established error from sampling and processing in DWPF to determine the melter feed composition. This composition is used with the known uncertainty of the models in the Product Composition Control System (PCCS) to ensure that the wasteform that is produced is comfortably within the acceptable processing and product performance region. Having the advantage of many years of processing that meets the waste glass product acceptance criteria, the DWPF process has provided a considerable amount of data about itself in addition to the data from many special studies. Demonstrating representative sampling directly from the large Tank Farm tanks is a difficult, if not unsolvable enterprise due to limited accessibility. However, the consistency and the adequacy of sampling and mixing at SRS could at least be studied under the controlled process conditions based on samples discussed by Ray and others [2012a] in Waste Form Qualification Report (WQR) Volume 2 and the transfers from Tanks 40H and 51H to the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) within DWPF. It is important to realize that the need for sample representativeness becomes more stringent as the material gets closer to the melter, and the tanks within DWPF have been studied extensively to meet those needs.« less

A Blueprint for Demonstrating Quantum Supremacy with Superconducting Qubits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kechedzhi, Kostyantyn

2018-01-01

Long coherence times and high fidelity control recently achieved in scalable superconducting circuits paved the way for the growing number of experimental studies of many-qubit quantum coherent phenomena in these devices. Albeit full implementation of quantum error correction and fault tolerant quantum computation remains a challenge the near term pre-error correction devices could allow new fundamental experiments despite inevitable accumulation of errors. One such open question foundational for quantum computing is achieving the so called quantum supremacy, an experimental demonstration of a computational task that takes polynomial time on the quantum computer whereas the best classical algorithm would require exponential time and/or resources. It is possible to formulate such a task for a quantum computer consisting of less than a 100 qubits. The computational task we consider is to provide approximate samples from a non-trivial quantum distribution. This is a generalization for the case of superconducting circuits of ideas behind boson sampling protocol for quantum optics introduced by Arkhipov and Aaronson. In this presentation we discuss a proof-of-principle demonstration of such a sampling task on a 9-qubit chain of superconducting gmon qubits developed by Google. We discuss theoretical analysis of the driven evolution of the device resulting in output approximating samples from a uniform distribution in the Hilbert space, a quantum chaotic state. We analyze quantum chaotic characteristics of the output of the circuit and the time required to generate a sufficiently complex quantum distribution. We demonstrate that the classical simulation of the sampling output requires exponential resources by connecting the task of calculating the output amplitudes to the sign problem of the Quantum Monte Carlo method. We also discuss the detailed theoretical modeling required to achieve high fidelity control and calibration of the multi-qubit unitary evolution in the device. We use a novel cross-entropy statistical metric as a figure of merit to verify the output and calibrate the device controls. Finally, we demonstrate the statistics of the wave function amplitudes generated on the 9-gmon chain and verify the quantum chaotic nature of the generated quantum distribution. This verifies the implementation of the quantum supremacy protocol.

Statistical separability and classification of land use classes using image-100. [Brazil

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Kumar, R.; Niero, M.

1977-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. The statistical separability of land use classes in the subsets of one to four spectral channels was investigated. Using ground observations and aerial photography, the MSS data of LANDSAT were analyzed with the Image-100. In the subsets of one to three spectral channels, channel 4, channel 4 & 7, and channels 4, 5, & 7 were found to be the best choices (ch.4 - 0.5 to 0.6 microns, ch. 5 - 0.6 to 0.7 microns, ch. 6 - 0.7 to 0.8 microns, and ch. 7 - 0.8 to 1.1 microns). For the single cell option of the Image-100, the errors of omission varied from 5% for the industrial class to 46% for the institutional class. The errors of commission varied from 11% for the commercial class to 39% for the industrial class. On the whole, the sample classifier gave considerably more accurate results compared to the single cell or multicell option.

Reduction in chemotherapy order errors with computerized physician order entry.

PubMed

Meisenberg, Barry R; Wright, Robert R; Brady-Copertino, Catherine J

2014-01-01

To measure the number and type of errors associated with chemotherapy order composition associated with three sequential methods of ordering: handwritten orders, preprinted orders, and computerized physician order entry (CPOE) embedded in the electronic health record. From 2008 to 2012, a sample of completed chemotherapy orders were reviewed by a pharmacist for the number and type of errors as part of routine performance improvement monitoring. Error frequencies for each of the three distinct methods of composing chemotherapy orders were compared using statistical methods. The rate of problematic order sets-those requiring significant rework for clarification-was reduced from 30.6% with handwritten orders to 12.6% with preprinted orders (preprinted v handwritten, P < .001) to 2.2% with CPOE (preprinted v CPOE, P < .001). The incidence of errors capable of causing harm was reduced from 4.2% with handwritten orders to 1.5% with preprinted orders (preprinted v handwritten, P < .001) to 0.1% with CPOE (CPOE v preprinted, P < .001). The number of problem- and error-containing chemotherapy orders was reduced sequentially by preprinted order sets and then by CPOE. CPOE is associated with low error rates, but it did not eliminate all errors, and the technology can introduce novel types of errors not seen with traditional handwritten or preprinted orders. Vigilance even with CPOE is still required to avoid patient harm.

Bias correction for selecting the minimal-error classifier from many machine learning models.

PubMed

Ding, Ying; Tang, Shaowu; Liao, Serena G; Jia, Jia; Oesterreich, Steffi; Lin, Yan; Tseng, George C

2014-11-15

Supervised machine learning is commonly applied in genomic research to construct a classifier from the training data that is generalizable to predict independent testing data. When test datasets are not available, cross-validation is commonly used to estimate the error rate. Many machine learning methods are available, and it is well known that no universally best method exists in general. It has been a common practice to apply many machine learning methods and report the method that produces the smallest cross-validation error rate. Theoretically, such a procedure produces a selection bias. Consequently, many clinical studies with moderate sample sizes (e.g. n = 30-60) risk reporting a falsely small cross-validation error rate that could not be validated later in independent cohorts. In this article, we illustrated the probabilistic framework of the problem and explored the statistical and asymptotic properties. We proposed a new bias correction method based on learning curve fitting by inverse power law (IPL) and compared it with three existing methods: nested cross-validation, weighted mean correction and Tibshirani-Tibshirani procedure. All methods were compared in simulation datasets, five moderate size real datasets and two large breast cancer datasets. The result showed that IPL outperforms the other methods in bias correction with smaller variance, and it has an additional advantage to extrapolate error estimates for larger sample sizes, a practical feature to recommend whether more samples should be recruited to improve the classifier and accuracy. An R package 'MLbias' and all source files are publicly available. tsenglab.biostat.pitt.edu/software.htm. ctseng@pitt.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Distributional assumptions in food and feed commodities- development of fit-for-purpose sampling protocols.

PubMed

Paoletti, Claudia; Esbensen, Kim H

2015-01-01

Material heterogeneity influences the effectiveness of sampling procedures. Most sampling guidelines used for assessment of food and/or feed commodities are based on classical statistical distribution requirements, the normal, binomial, and Poisson distributions-and almost universally rely on the assumption of randomness. However, this is unrealistic. The scientific food and feed community recognizes a strong preponderance of non random distribution within commodity lots, which should be a more realistic prerequisite for definition of effective sampling protocols. Nevertheless, these heterogeneity issues are overlooked as the prime focus is often placed only on financial, time, equipment, and personnel constraints instead of mandating acquisition of documented representative samples under realistic heterogeneity conditions. This study shows how the principles promulgated in the Theory of Sampling (TOS) and practically tested over 60 years provide an effective framework for dealing with the complete set of adverse aspects of both compositional and distributional heterogeneity (material sampling errors), as well as with the errors incurred by the sampling process itself. The results of an empirical European Union study on genetically modified soybean heterogeneity, Kernel Lot Distribution Assessment are summarized, as they have a strong bearing on the issue of proper sampling protocol development. TOS principles apply universally in the food and feed realm and must therefore be considered the only basis for development of valid sampling protocols free from distributional constraints.

Observation of e+e-→ηJ/ψ at center-of-mass energy s=4.009GeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ablikim, M.; Achasov, M. N.; Ambrose, D. J.; An, F. F.; An, Q.; An, Z. H.; Bai, J. Z.; Ban, Y.; Becker, J.; Bennett, J. V.; Bertani, M.; Bian, J. M.; Boger, E.; Bondarenko, O.; Boyko, I.; Briere, R. A.; Bytev, V.; Cai, X.; Cakir, O.; Calcaterra, A.; Cao, G. F.; Cetin, S. A.; Chang, J. F.; Chelkov, G.; Chen, G.; Chen, H. S.; Chen, J. C.; Chen, M. L.; Chen, S. J.; Chen, Y. B.; Cheng, H. P.; Chu, Y. P.; Cronin-Hennessy, D.; Dai, H. L.; Dai, J. P.; Dedovich, D.; Deng, Z. Y.; Denig, A.; Denysenko, I.; Destefanis, M.; Ding, W. M.; Ding, Y.; Dong, L. Y.; Dong, M. Y.; Du, S. X.; Fang, J.; Fang, S. S.; Fava, L.; Feldbauer, F.; Feng, C. Q.; Ferroli, R. B.; Fu, C. D.; Fu, J. L.; Gao, Y.; Geng, C.; Goetzen, K.; Gong, W. X.; Gradl, W.; Greco, M.; Gu, M. H.; Gu, Y. T.; Guan, Y. H.; Guo, A. Q.; Guo, L. B.; Guo, Y. P.; Han, Y. L.; Harris, F. A.; He, K. L.; He, M.; He, Z. Y.; Held, T.; Heng, Y. K.; Hou, Z. L.; Hu, H. M.; Hu, J. F.; Hu, T.; Huang, G. M.; Huang, J. S.; Huang, X. T.; Huang, Y. P.; Hussain, T.; Ji, C. S.; Ji, Q.; Ji, X. B.; Ji, X. L.; Jiang, L. L.; Jiang, X. S.; Jiao, J. B.; Jiao, Z.; Jin, D. P.; Jin, S.; Jing, F. F.; Kalantar-Nayestanaki, N.; Kavatsyuk, M.; Kuehn, W.; Lai, W.; Lange, J. S.; Li, C. H.; Li, Cheng; Li, Cui; Li, D. M.; Li, F.; Li, G.; Li, H. B.; Li, J. C.; Li, K.; Li, Lei; Li, Q. J.; Li, S. L.; Li, W. D.; Li, W. G.; Li, X. L.; Li, X. N.; Li, X. Q.; Li, X. R.; Li, Z. B.; Liang, H.; Liang, Y. F.; Liang, Y. T.; Liao, G. R.; Liao, X. T.; Liu, B. J.; Liu, C. L.; Liu, C. X.; Liu, C. Y.; Liu, F. H.; Liu, Fang; Liu, Feng; Liu, H.; Liu, H. B.; Liu, H. H.; Liu, H. M.; Liu, H. W.; Liu, J. P.; Liu, K. Y.; Liu, Kai; Liu, P. L.; Liu, Q.; Liu, S. B.; Liu, X.; Liu, X. H.; Liu, Y. B.; Liu, Z. A.; Liu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Zhiqing; Loehner, H.; Lu, G. R.; Lu, H. J.; Lu, J. G.; Lu, Q. W.; Lu, X. R.; Lu, Y. P.; Luo, C. L.; Luo, M. X.; Luo, T.; Luo, X. L.; Lv, M.; Ma, C. L.; Ma, F. C.; Ma, H. L.; Ma, Q. M.; Ma, S.; Ma, T.; Ma, X. Y.; Ma, Y.; Maas, F. E.; Maggiora, M.; Malik, Q. A.; Mao, Y. J.; Mao, Z. P.; Messchendorp, J. G.; Min, J.; Min, T. J.; Mitchell, R. E.; Mo, X. H.; Morales, C. Morales; Motzko, C.; Muchnoi, N. Yu.; Muramatsu, H.; Nefedov, Y.; Nicholson, C.; Nikolaev, I. B.; Ning, Z.; Olsen, S. L.; Ouyang, Q.; Pacetti, S.; Park, J. W.; Pelizaeus, M.; Peng, H. P.; Peters, K.; Ping, J. L.; Ping, R. G.; Poling, R.; Prencipe, E.; Qi, M.; Qian, S.; Qiao, C. F.; Qin, X. S.; Qin, Y.; Qin, Z. H.; Qiu, J. F.; Rashid, K. H.; Rong, G.; Ruan, X. D.; Sarantsev, A.; Schaefer, B. D.; Schulze, J.; Shao, M.; Shen, C. P.; Shen, X. Y.; Sheng, H. Y.; Shepherd, M. R.; Song, W. M.; Song, X. Y.; Spataro, S.; Spruck, B.; Sun, D. H.; Sun, G. X.; Sun, J. F.; Sun, S. S.; Sun, Y. J.; Sun, Y. Z.; Sun, Z. J.; Sun, Z. T.; Tang, C. J.; Tang, X.; Tapan, I.; Thorndike, E. H.; Toth, D.; Ullrich, M.; Varner, G. S.; Wang, B.; Wang, B. Q.; Wang, K.; Wang, L. L.; Wang, L. S.; Wang, M.; Wang, P.; Wang, P. L.; Wang, Q.; Wang, Q. J.; Wang, S. G.; Wang, X. L.; Wang, Y. D.; Wang, Y. F.; Wang, Y. Q.; Wang, Z.; Wang, Z. G.; Wang, Z. Y.; Wei, D. H.; Weidenkaff, P.; Wen, Q. G.; Wen, S. P.; Werner, M.; Wiedner, U.; Wu, L. H.; Wu, N.; Wu, S. X.; Wu, W.; Wu, Z.; Xia, L. G.; Xiao, Z. J.; Xie, Y. G.; Xiu, Q. L.; Xu, G. F.; Xu, G. M.; Xu, H.; Xu, Q. J.; Xu, X. P.; Xu, Z. R.; Xue, F.; Xue, Z.; Yan, L.; Yan, W. B.; Yan, Y. H.; Yang, H. X.; Yang, Y.; Yang, Y. X.; Ye, H.; Ye, M.; Ye, M. H.; Yu, B. X.; Yu, C. X.; Yu, J. S.; Yu, S. P.; Yuan, C. Z.; Yuan, Y.; Zafar, A. A.; Zallo, A.; Zeng, Y.; Zhang, B. X.; Zhang, B. Y.; Zhang, C. C.; Zhang, D. H.; Zhang, H. H.; Zhang, H. Y.; Zhang, J. Q.; Zhang, J. W.; Zhang, J. Y.; Zhang, J. Z.; Zhang, S. H.; Zhang, X. J.; Zhang, X. Y.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y. H.; Zhang, Y. S.; Zhang, Z. P.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhao, G.; Zhao, H. S.; Zhao, J. W.; Zhao, K. X.; Zhao, Lei; Zhao, Ling; Zhao, M. G.; Zhao, Q.; Zhao, S. J.; Zhao, T. C.; Zhao, X. H.; Zhao, Y. B.; Zhao, Z. G.; Zhemchugov, A.; Zheng, B.; Zheng, J. P.; Zheng, Y. H.; Zhong, B.; Zhong, J.; Zhou, L.; Zhou, X. K.; Zhou, X. R.; Zhu, C.; Zhu, K.; Zhu, K. J.; Zhu, S. H.; Zhu, X. L.; Zhu, X. W.; Zhu, Y. C.; Zhu, Y. M.; Zhu, Y. S.; Zhu, Z. A.; Zhuang, J.; Zou, B. S.; Zou, J. H.

2012-10-01

Using a 478pb-1 data sample collected with the BESIII detector operating at the Beijing Electron Positron Collider storage ring at a center-of-mass energy of s=4.009GeV, the production of e+e-→ηJ/ψ is observed for the first time with a statistical significance of greater than 10σ. The Born cross section is measured to be (32.1±2.8±1.3)pb, where the first error is statistical and the second systematic. Assuming the ηJ/ψ signal is from a hadronic transition of the ψ(4040), the fractional transition rate is determined to be B(ψ(4040)→ηJ/ψ)=(5.2±0.5±0.2±0.5)×10-3, where the first, second, and third errors are statistical, systematic, and the uncertainty from the ψ(4040) resonant parameters, respectively. The production of e+e-→π0J/ψ is searched for, but no significant signal is observed, and B(ψ(4040)→π0J/ψ)<2.8×10-4 is obtained at the 90% confidence level.

Sharpening method of satellite thermal image based on the geographical statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Pengcheng; Hu, Shixiong; Zhang, Haijun; Guo, Guangmeng

2016-04-01

To improve the effectiveness of thermal sharpening in mountainous regions, paying more attention to the laws of land surface energy balance, a thermal sharpening method based on the geographical statistical model (GSM) is proposed. Explanatory variables were selected from the processes of land surface energy budget and thermal infrared electromagnetic radiation transmission, then high spatial resolution (57 m) raster layers were generated for these variables through spatially simulating or using other raster data as proxies. Based on this, the local adaptation statistical relationship between brightness temperature (BT) and the explanatory variables, i.e., the GSM, was built at 1026-m resolution using the method of multivariate adaptive regression splines. Finally, the GSM was applied to the high-resolution (57-m) explanatory variables; thus, the high-resolution (57-m) BT image was obtained. This method produced a sharpening result with low error and good visual effect. The method can avoid the blind choice of explanatory variables and remove the dependence on synchronous imagery at visible and near-infrared bands. The influences of the explanatory variable combination, sampling method, and the residual error correction on sharpening results were analyzed deliberately, and their influence mechanisms are reported herein.

Robust multivariate nonparametric tests for detection of two-sample location shift in clinical trials

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xuejun; Guo, Xu; Zhang, Ning; Wang, Bo

2018-01-01

This article presents and investigates performance of a series of robust multivariate nonparametric tests for detection of location shift between two multivariate samples in randomized controlled trials. The tests are built upon robust estimators of distribution locations (medians, Hodges-Lehmann estimators, and an extended U statistic) with both unscaled and scaled versions. The nonparametric tests are robust to outliers and do not assume that the two samples are drawn from multivariate normal distributions. Bootstrap and permutation approaches are introduced for determining the p-values of the proposed test statistics. Simulation studies are conducted and numerical results are reported to examine performance of the proposed statistical tests. The numerical results demonstrate that the robust multivariate nonparametric tests constructed from the Hodges-Lehmann estimators are more efficient than those based on medians and the extended U statistic. The permutation approach can provide a more stringent control of Type I error and is generally more powerful than the bootstrap procedure. The proposed robust nonparametric tests are applied to detect multivariate distributional difference between the intervention and control groups in the Thai Healthy Choices study and examine the intervention effect of a four-session motivational interviewing-based intervention developed in the study to reduce risk behaviors among youth living with HIV. PMID:29672555

Quantifying the sources of variability in equine faecal egg counts: implications for improving the utility of the method.

PubMed

Denwood, M J; Love, S; Innocent, G T; Matthews, L; McKendrick, I J; Hillary, N; Smith, A; Reid, S W J

2012-08-13

The faecal egg count (FEC) is the most widely used means of quantifying the nematode burden of horses, and is frequently used in clinical practice to inform treatment and prevention. The statistical process underlying the FEC is complex, comprising a Poisson counting error process for each sample, compounded with an underlying continuous distribution of means between samples. Being able to quantify the sources of variability contributing to this distribution of means is a necessary step towards providing estimates of statistical power for future FEC and FECRT studies, and may help to improve the usefulness of the FEC technique by identifying and minimising unwanted sources of variability. Obtaining such estimates require a hierarchical statistical model coupled with repeated FEC observations from a single animal over a short period of time. Here, we use this approach to provide the first comparative estimate of multiple sources of within-horse FEC variability. The results demonstrate that a substantial proportion of the observed variation in FEC between horses occurs as a result of variation in FEC within an animal, with the major sources being aggregation of eggs within faeces and variation in egg concentration between faecal piles. The McMaster procedure itself is associated with a comparatively small coefficient of variation, and is therefore highly repeatable when a sufficiently large number of eggs are observed to reduce the error associated with the counting process. We conclude that the variation between samples taken from the same animal is substantial, but can be reduced through the use of larger homogenised faecal samples. Estimates are provided for the coefficient of variation (cv) associated with each within animal source of variability in observed FEC, allowing the usefulness of individual FEC to be quantified, and providing a basis for future FEC and FECRT studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Error Analysis of Deep Sequencing of Phage Libraries: Peptides Censored in Sequencing

PubMed Central

Matochko, Wadim L.; Derda, Ratmir

2013-01-01

Next-generation sequencing techniques empower selection of ligands from phage-display libraries because they can detect low abundant clones and quantify changes in the copy numbers of clones without excessive selection rounds. Identification of errors in deep sequencing data is the most critical step in this process because these techniques have error rates >1%. Mechanisms that yield errors in Illumina and other techniques have been proposed, but no reports to date describe error analysis in phage libraries. Our paper focuses on error analysis of 7-mer peptide libraries sequenced by Illumina method. Low theoretical complexity of this phage library, as compared to complexity of long genetic reads and genomes, allowed us to describe this library using convenient linear vector and operator framework. We describe a phage library as N × 1 frequency vector n = ||ni||, where ni is the copy number of the ith sequence and N is the theoretical diversity, that is, the total number of all possible sequences. Any manipulation to the library is an operator acting on n. Selection, amplification, or sequencing could be described as a product of a N × N matrix and a stochastic sampling operator (S a). The latter is a random diagonal matrix that describes sampling of a library. In this paper, we focus on the properties of S a and use them to define the sequencing operator (S e q). Sequencing without any bias and errors is S e q = S a IN, where IN is a N × N unity matrix. Any bias in sequencing changes IN to a nonunity matrix. We identified a diagonal censorship matrix (C E N), which describes elimination or statistically significant downsampling, of specific reads during the sequencing process. PMID:24416071

Simultaneous Control of Error Rates in fMRI Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Kang, Hakmook; Blume, Jeffrey; Ombao, Hernando; Badre, David

2015-01-01

The key idea of statistical hypothesis testing is to fix, and thereby control, the Type I error (false positive) rate across samples of any size. Multiple comparisons inflate the global (family-wise) Type I error rate and the traditional solution to maintaining control of the error rate is to increase the local (comparison-wise) Type II error (false negative) rates. However, in the analysis of human brain imaging data, the number of comparisons is so large that this solution breaks down: the local Type II error rate ends up being so large that scientifically meaningful analysis is precluded. Here we propose a novel solution to this problem: allow the Type I error rate to converge to zero along with the Type II error rate. It works because when the Type I error rate per comparison is very small, the accumulation (or global) Type I error rate is also small. This solution is achieved by employing the Likelihood paradigm, which uses likelihood ratios to measure the strength of evidence on a voxel-by-voxel basis. In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical justification for a likelihood approach to the analysis of human brain imaging data. In addition, we present extensive simulations that show the likelihood approach is viable, leading to ‘cleaner’ looking brain maps and operationally superiority (lower average error rate). Finally, we include a case study on cognitive control related activation in the prefrontal cortex of the human brain. PMID:26272730

The stability of hydrogen ion and specific conductance in filtered wet-deposition samples stored at ambient temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gordon, J.D.; Schroder, L.J.; Morden-Moore, A. L.; Bowersox, V.C.

1995-01-01

Separate experiments by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Illinois State Water Survey Central Analytical Laboratory (CAL) independently assessed the stability of hydrogen ion and specific conductance in filtered wet-deposition samples stored at ambient temperatures. The USGS experiment represented a test of sample stability under a diverse range of conditions, whereas the CAL experiment was a controlled test of sample stability. In the experiment by the USGS, a statistically significant (?? = 0.05) relation between [H+] and time was found for the composited filtered, natural, wet-deposition solution when all reported values are included in the analysis. However, if two outlying pH values most likely representing measurement error are excluded from the analysis, the change in [H+] over time was not statistically significant. In the experiment by the CAL, randomly selected samples were reanalyzed between July 1984 and February 1991. The original analysis and reanalysis pairs revealed that [H+] differences, although very small, were statistically different from zero, whereas specific-conductance differences were not. Nevertheless, the results of the CAL reanalysis project indicate there appears to be no consistent, chemically significant degradation in sample integrity with regard to [H+] and specific conductance while samples are stored at room temperature at the CAL. Based on the results of the CAL and USGS studies, short-term (45-60 day) stability of [H+] and specific conductance in natural filtered wet-deposition samples that are shipped and stored unchilled at ambient temperatures was satisfactory.

Fall 2014 SEI Research Review Probabilistic Analysis of Time Sensitive Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-10-28

Osmosis SMC Tool Osmosis is a tool for Statistical Model Checking (SMC) with Semantic Importance Sampling. • Input model is written in subset of C...ASSERT() statements in model indicate conditions that must hold. • Input probability distributions defined by the user. • Osmosis returns the...on: – Target relative error, or – Set number of simulations Osmosis Main Algorithm 1 http://dreal.cs.cmu.edu/ (?⃑?): Indicator

Testing biological liquid samples using modified m-line spectroscopy method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Augusciuk, Elzbieta; Rybiński, Grzegorz

2005-09-01

Non-chemical method of detection of sugar concentration in biological (animal and plant source) liquids has been investigated. Simplified set was build to show the easy way of carrying out the survey and to make easy to gather multiple measurements for error detecting and statistics. Method is suggested as easy and cheap alternative for chemical methods of measuring sugar concentration, but needing a lot effort to be made precise.

Measuring the statistical validity of summary meta-analysis and meta-regression results for use in clinical practice.

PubMed

Willis, Brian H; Riley, Richard D

2017-09-20

An important question for clinicians appraising a meta-analysis is: are the findings likely to be valid in their own practice-does the reported effect accurately represent the effect that would occur in their own clinical population? To this end we advance the concept of statistical validity-where the parameter being estimated equals the corresponding parameter for a new independent study. Using a simple ('leave-one-out') cross-validation technique, we demonstrate how we may test meta-analysis estimates for statistical validity using a new validation statistic, Vn, and derive its distribution. We compare this with the usual approach of investigating heterogeneity in meta-analyses and demonstrate the link between statistical validity and homogeneity. Using a simulation study, the properties of Vn and the Q statistic are compared for univariate random effects meta-analysis and a tailored meta-regression model, where information from the setting (included as model covariates) is used to calibrate the summary estimate to the setting of application. Their properties are found to be similar when there are 50 studies or more, but for fewer studies Vn has greater power but a higher type 1 error rate than Q. The power and type 1 error rate of Vn are also shown to depend on the within-study variance, between-study variance, study sample size, and the number of studies in the meta-analysis. Finally, we apply Vn to two published meta-analyses and conclude that it usefully augments standard methods when deciding upon the likely validity of summary meta-analysis estimates in clinical practice. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Impact of Soil Sampling Errors on Variable Rate Fertilization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

R. L. Hoskinson; R C. Rope; L G. Blackwood

2004-07-01

Variable rate fertilization of an agricultural field is done taking into account spatial variability in the soil’s characteristics. Most often, spatial variability in the soil’s fertility is the primary characteristic used to determine the differences in fertilizers applied from one point to the next. For several years the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) has been developing a Decision Support System for Agriculture (DSS4Ag) to determine the economically optimum recipe of various fertilizers to apply at each site in a field, based on existing soil fertility at the site, predicted yield of the crop that would result (and amore » predicted harvest-time market price), and the current costs and compositions of the fertilizers to be applied. Typically, soil is sampled at selected points within a field, the soil samples are analyzed in a lab, and the lab-measured soil fertility of the point samples is used for spatial interpolation, in some statistical manner, to determine the soil fertility at all other points in the field. Then a decision tool determines the fertilizers to apply at each point. Our research was conducted to measure the impact on the variable rate fertilization recipe caused by variability in the measurement of the soil’s fertility at the sampling points. The variability could be laboratory analytical errors or errors from variation in the sample collection method. The results show that for many of the fertility parameters, laboratory measurement error variance exceeds the estimated variability of the fertility measure across grid locations. These errors resulted in DSS4Ag fertilizer recipe recommended application rates that differed by up to 138 pounds of urea per acre, with half the field differing by more than 57 pounds of urea per acre. For potash the difference in application rate was up to 895 pounds per acre and over half the field differed by more than 242 pounds of potash per acre. Urea and potash differences accounted for almost 87% of the cost difference. The sum of these differences could result in a $34 per acre cost difference for the fertilization. Because of these differences, better analysis or better sampling methods may need to be done, or more samples collected, to ensure that the soil measurements are truly representative of the field’s spatial variability.« less

Common Scientific and Statistical Errors in Obesity Research

PubMed Central

George, Brandon J.; Beasley, T. Mark; Brown, Andrew W.; Dawson, John; Dimova, Rositsa; Divers, Jasmin; Goldsby, TaShauna U.; Heo, Moonseong; Kaiser, Kathryn A.; Keith, Scott; Kim, Mimi Y.; Li, Peng; Mehta, Tapan; Oakes, J. Michael; Skinner, Asheley; Stuart, Elizabeth; Allison, David B.

2015-01-01

We identify 10 common errors and problems in the statistical analysis, design, interpretation, and reporting of obesity research and discuss how they can be avoided. The 10 topics are: 1) misinterpretation of statistical significance, 2) inappropriate testing against baseline values, 3) excessive and undisclosed multiple testing and “p-value hacking,” 4) mishandling of clustering in cluster randomized trials, 5) misconceptions about nonparametric tests, 6) mishandling of missing data, 7) miscalculation of effect sizes, 8) ignoring regression to the mean, 9) ignoring confirmation bias, and 10) insufficient statistical reporting. We hope that discussion of these errors can improve the quality of obesity research by helping researchers to implement proper statistical practice and to know when to seek the help of a statistician. PMID:27028280

High dimensional linear regression models under long memory dependence and measurement error

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaul, Abhishek

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The first chapter introduces the models under consideration and motivates problems of interest. A brief literature review is also provided in this chapter. The second chapter investigates the properties of Lasso under long range dependent model errors. Lasso is a computationally efficient approach to model selection and estimation, and its properties are well studied when the regression errors are independent and identically distributed. We study the case, where the regression errors form a long memory moving average process. We establish a finite sample oracle inequality for the Lasso solution. We then show the asymptotic sign consistency in this setup. These results are established in the high dimensional setup (p> n) where p can be increasing exponentially with n. Finally, we show the consistency, n½ --d-consistency of Lasso, along with the oracle property of adaptive Lasso, in the case where p is fixed. Here d is the memory parameter of the stationary error sequence. The performance of Lasso is also analysed in the present setup with a simulation study. The third chapter proposes and investigates the properties of a penalized quantile based estimator for measurement error models. Standard formulations of prediction problems in high dimension regression models assume the availability of fully observed covariates and sub-Gaussian and homogeneous model errors. This makes these methods inapplicable to measurement errors models where covariates are unobservable and observations are possibly non sub-Gaussian and heterogeneous. We propose weighted penalized corrected quantile estimators for the regression parameter vector in linear regression models with additive measurement errors, where unobservable covariates are nonrandom. The proposed estimators forgo the need for the above mentioned model assumptions. We study these estimators in both the fixed dimension and high dimensional sparse setups, in the latter setup, the dimensionality can grow exponentially with the sample size. In the fixed dimensional setting we provide the oracle properties associated with the proposed estimators. In the high dimensional setting, we provide bounds for the statistical error associated with the estimation, that hold with asymptotic probability 1, thereby providing the ℓ1-consistency of the proposed estimator. We also establish the model selection consistency in terms of the correctly estimated zero components of the parameter vector. A simulation study that investigates the finite sample accuracy of the proposed estimator is also included in this chapter.

A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

2009-01-01

The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications, since these age models are better suited to the statistical properties of typical single-grain and multi-grain single-aliquot De datasets. However, the unique error properties of modern-age samples, combined with the problems of calculating natural logarithms of negative or zero-Gy De values, mean that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models currently offer the most suitable means of deriving accurate burial dose estimates for very young and modern-age samples. ?? 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Textural Analysis and Substrate Classification in the Nearshore Region of Lake Superior Using High-Resolution Multibeam Bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dennison, Andrew G.

Classification of the seafloor substrate can be done with a variety of methods. These methods include Visual (dives, drop cameras); mechanical (cores, grab samples); acoustic (statistical analysis of echosounder returns). Acoustic methods offer a more powerful and efficient means of collecting useful information about the bottom type. Due to the nature of an acoustic survey, larger areas can be sampled, and by combining the collected data with visual and mechanical survey methods provide greater confidence in the classification of a mapped region. During a multibeam sonar survey, both bathymetric and backscatter data is collected. It is well documented that the statistical characteristic of a sonar backscatter mosaic is dependent on bottom type. While classifying the bottom-type on the basis on backscatter alone can accurately predict and map bottom-type, i.e a muddy area from a rocky area, it lacks the ability to resolve and capture fine textural details, an important factor in many habitat mapping studies. Statistical processing of high-resolution multibeam data can capture the pertinent details about the bottom-type that are rich in textural information. Further multivariate statistical processing can then isolate characteristic features, and provide the basis for an accurate classification scheme. The development of a new classification method is described here. It is based upon the analysis of textural features in conjunction with ground truth sampling. The processing and classification result of two geologically distinct areas in nearshore regions of Lake Superior; off the Lester River,MN and Amnicon River, WI are presented here, using the Minnesota Supercomputer Institute's Mesabi computing cluster for initial processing. Processed data is then calibrated using ground truth samples to conduct an accuracy assessment of the surveyed areas. From analysis of high-resolution bathymetry data collected at both survey sites is was possible to successfully calculate a series of measures that describe textural information about the lake floor. Further processing suggests that the features calculated capture a significant amount of statistical information about the lake floor terrain as well. Two sources of error, an anomalous heave and refraction error significantly deteriorated the quality of the processed data and resulting validate results. Ground truth samples used to validate the classification methods utilized for both survey sites, however, resulted in accuracy values ranging from 5 -30 percent at the Amnicon River, and between 60-70 percent for the Lester River. The final results suggest that this new processing methodology does adequately capture textural information about the lake floor and does provide an acceptable classification in the absence of significant data quality issues.

Local Linear Regression for Data with AR Errors.

PubMed

Li, Runze; Li, Yan

2009-07-01

In many statistical applications, data are collected over time, and they are likely correlated. In this paper, we investigate how to incorporate the correlation information into the local linear regression. Under the assumption that the error process is an auto-regressive process, a new estimation procedure is proposed for the nonparametric regression by using local linear regression method and the profile least squares techniques. We further propose the SCAD penalized profile least squares method to determine the order of auto-regressive process. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed procedure, and to compare the performance of the proposed procedures with the existing one. From our empirical studies, the newly proposed procedures can dramatically improve the accuracy of naive local linear regression with working-independent error structure. We illustrate the proposed methodology by an analysis of real data set.

A Possible Tool for Checking Errors in the INAA Results, Based on Neutron Data and Method Validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cincu, Em.; Grigore, Ioana Manea; Barbos, D.; Cazan, I. L.; Manu, V.

2008-08-01

This work presents preliminary results of a new type of possible application in the INAA experiments of elemental analysis, useful to check errors occurred during investigation of unknown samples; it relies on the INAA method validation experiments and accuracy of the neutron data from the literature. The paper comprises 2 sections, the first one presents—in short—the steps of the experimental tests carried out for INAA method validation and for establishing the `ACTIVA-N' laboratory performance, which is-at the same time-an illustration of the laboratory evolution on the way to get performance. Section 2 presents our recent INAA results on CRMs, of which interpretation opens discussions about the usefulness of using a tool for checking possible errors, different from the usual statistical procedures. The questionable aspects and the requirements to develop a practical checking tool are discussed.

On P values and effect modification.

PubMed

Mayer, Martin

2017-12-01

A crucial element of evidence-based healthcare is the sound understanding and use of statistics. As part of instilling sound statistical knowledge and practice, it seems useful to highlight instances of unsound statistical reasoning or practice, not merely in captious or vitriolic spirit, but rather, to use such error as a springboard for edification by giving tangibility to the concepts at hand and highlighting the importance of avoiding such error. This article aims to provide an instructive overview of two key statistical concepts: effect modification and P values. A recent article published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology on side effects related to statin therapy offers a notable example of errors in understanding effect modification and P values, and although not so critical as to entirely invalidate the article, the errors still demand considerable scrutiny and correction. In doing so, this article serves as an instructive overview of the statistical concepts of effect modification and P values. Judicious handling of statistics is imperative to avoid muddying their utility. This article contributes to the body of literature aiming to improve the use of statistics, which in turn will help facilitate evidence appraisal, synthesis, translation, and application.

Optical diagnosis of malaria infection in human plasma using Raman spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilal, Muhammad; Saleem, Muhammad; Amanat, Samina Tufail; Shakoor, Huma Abdul; Rashid, Rashad; Mahmood, Arshad; Ahmed, Mushtaq

2015-01-01

We present the prediction of malaria infection in human plasma using Raman spectroscopy. Raman spectra of malaria-infected samples are compared with those of healthy and dengue virus infected ones for disease recognition. Raman spectra were acquired using a laser at 532 nm as an excitation source and 10 distinct spectral signatures that statistically differentiated malaria from healthy and dengue-infected cases were found. A multivariate regression model has been developed that utilized Raman spectra of 20 malaria-infected, 10 non-malarial with fever, 10 healthy, and 6 dengue-infected samples to optically predict the malaria infection. The model yields the correlation coefficient r2 value of 0.981 between the predicted values and clinically known results of trainee samples, and the root mean square error in cross validation was found to be 0.09; both these parameters validated the model. The model was further blindly tested for 30 unknown suspected samples and found to be 86% accurate compared with the clinical results, with the inaccuracy due to three samples which were predicted in the gray region. Standard deviation and root mean square error in prediction for unknown samples were found to be 0.150 and 0.149, which are accepted for the clinical validation of the model.

An Unbiased Estimator of Gene Diversity with Improved Variance for Samples Containing Related and Inbred Individuals of any Ploidy

PubMed Central

Harris, Alexandre M.; DeGiorgio, Michael

2016-01-01

Gene diversity, or expected heterozygosity (H), is a common statistic for assessing genetic variation within populations. Estimation of this statistic decreases in accuracy and precision when individuals are related or inbred, due to increased dependence among allele copies in the sample. The original unbiased estimator of expected heterozygosity underestimates true population diversity in samples containing relatives, as it only accounts for sample size. More recently, a general unbiased estimator of expected heterozygosity was developed that explicitly accounts for related and inbred individuals in samples. Though unbiased, this estimator’s variance is greater than that of the original estimator. To address this issue, we introduce a general unbiased estimator of gene diversity for samples containing related or inbred individuals, which employs the best linear unbiased estimator of allele frequencies, rather than the commonly used sample proportion. We examine the properties of this estimator, H∼BLUE, relative to alternative estimators using simulations and theoretical predictions, and show that it predominantly has the smallest mean squared error relative to others. Further, we empirically assess the performance of H∼BLUE on a global human microsatellite dataset of 5795 individuals, from 267 populations, genotyped at 645 loci. Additionally, we show that the improved variance of H∼BLUE leads to improved estimates of the population differentiation statistic, FST, which employs measures of gene diversity within its calculation. Finally, we provide an R script, BestHet, to compute this estimator from genomic and pedigree data. PMID:28040781

Impact of Satellite Viewing-Swath Width on Global and Regional Aerosol Optical Thickness Statistics and Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colarco, P. R.; Kahn, R. A.; Remer, L. A.; Levy, R. C.

2014-01-01

We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite aerosol optical thickness (AOT) product to assess the impact of reduced swath width on global and regional AOT statistics and trends. Alongtrack and across-track sampling strategies are employed, in which the full MODIS data set is sub-sampled with various narrow-swath (approximately 400-800 km) and single pixel width (approximately 10 km) configurations. Although view-angle artifacts in the MODIS AOT retrieval confound direct comparisons between averages derived from different sub-samples, careful analysis shows that with many portions of the Earth essentially unobserved, spatial sampling introduces uncertainty in the derived seasonal-regional mean AOT. These AOT spatial sampling artifacts comprise up to 60%of the full-swath AOT value under moderate aerosol loading, and can be as large as 0.1 in some regions under high aerosol loading. Compared to full-swath observations, narrower swath and single pixel width sampling exhibits a reduced ability to detect AOT trends with statistical significance. On the other hand, estimates of the global, annual mean AOT do not vary significantly from the full-swath values as spatial sampling is reduced. Aggregation of the MODIS data at coarse grid scales (10 deg) shows consistency in the aerosol trends across sampling strategies, with increased statistical confidence, but quantitative errors in the derived trends are found even for the full-swath data when compared to high spatial resolution (0.5 deg) aggregations. Using results of a model-derived aerosol reanalysis, we find consistency in our conclusions about a seasonal-regional spatial sampling artifact in AOT Furthermore, the model shows that reduced spatial sampling can amount to uncertainty in computed shortwave top-ofatmosphere aerosol radiative forcing of 2-3 W m(sup-2). These artifacts are lower bounds, as possibly other unconsidered sampling strategies would perform less well. These results suggest that future aerosol satellite missions having significantly less than full-swath viewing are unlikely to sample the true AOT distribution well enough to obtain the statistics needed to reduce uncertainty in aerosol direct forcing of climate.

Generalized SAMPLE SIZE Determination Formulas for Investigating Contextual Effects by a Three-Level Random Intercept Model.

PubMed

Usami, Satoshi

2017-03-01

Behavioral and psychological researchers have shown strong interests in investigating contextual effects (i.e., the influences of combinations of individual- and group-level predictors on individual-level outcomes). The present research provides generalized formulas for determining the sample size needed in investigating contextual effects according to the desired level of statistical power as well as width of confidence interval. These formulas are derived within a three-level random intercept model that includes one predictor/contextual variable at each level to simultaneously cover various kinds of contextual effects that researchers can show interest. The relative influences of indices included in the formulas on the standard errors of contextual effects estimates are investigated with the aim of further simplifying sample size determination procedures. In addition, simulation studies are performed to investigate finite sample behavior of calculated statistical power, showing that estimated sample sizes based on derived formulas can be both positively and negatively biased due to complex effects of unreliability of contextual variables, multicollinearity, and violation of assumption regarding the known variances. Thus, it is advisable to compare estimated sample sizes under various specifications of indices and to evaluate its potential bias, as illustrated in the example.

Uncertainty Analysis and Order-by-Order Optimization of Chiral Nuclear Interactions

DOE PAGES

Carlsson, Boris; Forssen, Christian; Fahlin Strömberg, D.; ...

2016-02-24

Chiral effective field theory ( ΧEFT) provides a systematic approach to describe low-energy nuclear forces. Moreover, EFT is able to provide well-founded estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties | although this unique advantage has not yet been fully exploited. We ll this gap by performing an optimization and statistical analysis of all the low-energy constants (LECs) up to next-to-next-to-leading order. Our optimization protocol corresponds to a simultaneous t to scattering and bound-state observables in the pion-nucleon, nucleon-nucleon, and few-nucleon sectors, thereby utilizing the full model capabilities of EFT. Finally, we study the effect on other observables by demonstrating forward-error-propagation methodsmore » that can easily be adopted by future works. We employ mathematical optimization and implement automatic differentiation to attain e cient and machine-precise first- and second-order derivatives of the objective function with respect to the LECs. This is also vital for the regression analysis. We use power-counting arguments to estimate the systematic uncertainty that is inherent to EFT and we construct chiral interactions at different orders with quantified uncertainties. Statistical error propagation is compared with Monte Carlo sampling showing that statistical errors are in general small compared to systematic ones. In conclusion, we find that a simultaneous t to different sets of data is critical to (i) identify the optimal set of LECs, (ii) capture all relevant correlations, (iii) reduce the statistical uncertainty, and (iv) attain order-by-order convergence in EFT. Furthermore, certain systematic uncertainties in the few-nucleon sector are shown to get substantially magnified in the many-body sector; in particlar when varying the cutoff in the chiral potentials. The methodology and results presented in this Paper open a new frontier for uncertainty quantification in ab initio nuclear theory.« less

Proper Image Subtraction—Optimal Transient Detection, Photometry, and Hypothesis Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zackay, Barak; Ofek, Eran O.; Gal-Yam, Avishay

2016-10-01

Transient detection and flux measurement via image subtraction stand at the base of time domain astronomy. Due to the varying seeing conditions, the image subtraction process is non-trivial, and existing solutions suffer from a variety of problems. Starting from basic statistical principles, we develop the optimal statistic for transient detection, flux measurement, and any image-difference hypothesis testing. We derive a closed-form statistic that: (1) is mathematically proven to be the optimal transient detection statistic in the limit of background-dominated noise, (2) is numerically stable, (3) for accurately registered, adequately sampled images, does not leave subtraction or deconvolution artifacts, (4) allows automatic transient detection to the theoretical sensitivity limit by providing credible detection significance, (5) has uncorrelated white noise, (6) is a sufficient statistic for any further statistical test on the difference image, and, in particular, allows us to distinguish particle hits and other image artifacts from real transients, (7) is symmetric to the exchange of the new and reference images, (8) is at least an order of magnitude faster to compute than some popular methods, and (9) is straightforward to implement. Furthermore, we present extensions of this method that make it resilient to registration errors, color-refraction errors, and any noise source that can be modeled. In addition, we show that the optimal way to prepare a reference image is the proper image coaddition presented in Zackay & Ofek. We demonstrate this method on simulated data and real observations from the PTF data release 2. We provide an implementation of this algorithm in MATLAB and Python.

Cluster mislocation in kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect extraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calafut, Victoria Rose; Bean, Rachel; Yu, Byeonghee

2018-01-01

We investigate the impact of a variety of analysis assumptions that influence cluster identification and location on the kSZ pairwise momentum signal and covariance estimation. Photometric and spectroscopic galaxy tracers from SDSS, WISE, and DECaLs, spanning redshifts 0.05

Maximum entropy approach to statistical inference for an ocean acoustic waveguide.

PubMed

Knobles, D P; Sagers, J D; Koch, R A

2012-02-01

A conditional probability distribution suitable for estimating the statistical properties of ocean seabed parameter values inferred from acoustic measurements is derived from a maximum entropy principle. The specification of the expectation value for an error function constrains the maximization of an entropy functional. This constraint determines the sensitivity factor (β) to the error function of the resulting probability distribution, which is a canonical form that provides a conservative estimate of the uncertainty of the parameter values. From the conditional distribution, marginal distributions for individual parameters can be determined from integration over the other parameters. The approach is an alternative to obtaining the posterior probability distribution without an intermediary determination of the likelihood function followed by an application of Bayes' rule. In this paper the expectation value that specifies the constraint is determined from the values of the error function for the model solutions obtained from a sparse number of data samples. The method is applied to ocean acoustic measurements taken on the New Jersey continental shelf. The marginal probability distribution for the values of the sound speed ratio at the surface of the seabed and the source levels of a towed source are examined for different geoacoustic model representations. © 2012 Acoustical Society of America

Characterizing Protease Specificity: How Many Substrates Do We Need?

PubMed Central

Schauperl, Michael; Fuchs, Julian E.; Waldner, Birgit J.; Huber, Roland G.; Kramer, Christian; Liedl, Klaus R.

2015-01-01

Calculation of cleavage entropies allows to quantify, map and compare protease substrate specificity by an information entropy based approach. The metric intrinsically depends on the number of experimentally determined substrates (data points). Thus a statistical analysis of its numerical stability is crucial to estimate the systematic error made by estimating specificity based on a limited number of substrates. In this contribution, we show the mathematical basis for estimating the uncertainty in cleavage entropies. Sets of cleavage entropies are calculated using experimental cleavage data and modeled extreme cases. By analyzing the underlying mathematics and applying statistical tools, a linear dependence of the metric in respect to 1/n was found. This allows us to extrapolate the values to an infinite number of samples and to estimate the errors. Analyzing the errors, a minimum number of 30 substrates was found to be necessary to characterize substrate specificity, in terms of amino acid variability, for a protease (S4-S4’) with an uncertainty of 5 percent. Therefore, we encourage experimental researchers in the protease field to record specificity profiles of novel proteases aiming to identify at least 30 peptide substrates of maximum sequence diversity. We expect a full characterization of protease specificity helpful to rationalize biological functions of proteases and to assist rational drug design. PMID:26559682

A minimalist approach to bias estimation for passive sensor measurements with targets of opportunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belfadel, Djedjiga; Osborne, Richard W.; Bar-Shalom, Yaakov

2013-09-01

In order to carry out data fusion, registration error correction is crucial in multisensor systems. This requires estimation of the sensor measurement biases. It is important to correct for these bias errors so that the multiple sensor measurements and/or tracks can be referenced as accurately as possible to a common tracking coordinate system. This paper provides a solution for bias estimation for the minimum number of passive sensors (two), when only targets of opportunity are available. The sensor measurements are assumed time-coincident (synchronous) and perfectly associated. Since these sensors provide only line of sight (LOS) measurements, the formation of a single composite Cartesian measurement obtained from fusing the LOS measurements from different sensors is needed to avoid the need for nonlinear filtering. We evaluate the Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) on the covariance of the bias estimate, i.e., the quantification of the available information about the biases. Statistical tests on the results of simulations show that this method is statistically efficient, even for small sample sizes (as few as two sensors and six points on the trajectory of a single target of opportunity). We also show that the RMS position error is significantly improved with bias estimation compared with the target position estimation using the original biased measurements.

Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Daily, Jonathan P.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David; Snyder, Craig D.

2012-01-01

Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (τ) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.

Spatiotemporal Path-Matching for Comparisons Between Ground- Based and Satellite Lidar Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Berkoff, Timothy A.; Valencia, Sandra; Welton, Ellsworth J.; Spinhirne, James D.

2005-01-01

The spatiotemporal sampling differences between ground-based and satellite lidar data can contribute to significant errors for direct measurement comparisons. Improvement in sample correspondence is examined by the use of radiosonde wind velocity to vary the time average in ground-based lidar data to spatially match coincident satellite lidar measurements. Results are shown for the 26 February 2004 GLAS/ICESat overflight of a ground-based lidar stationed at NASA GSFC. Statistical analysis indicates that improvement in signal correlation is expected under certain conditions, even when a ground-based observation is mismatched in directional orientation to the satellite track.

Driven-dissipative quantum Monte Carlo method for open quantum systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagy, Alexandra; Savona, Vincenzo

2018-05-01

We develop a real-time full configuration-interaction quantum Monte Carlo approach to model driven-dissipative open quantum systems with Markovian system-bath coupling. The method enables stochastic sampling of the Liouville-von Neumann time evolution of the density matrix thanks to a massively parallel algorithm, thus providing estimates of observables on the nonequilibrium steady state. We present the underlying theory and introduce an initiator technique and importance sampling to reduce the statistical error. Finally, we demonstrate the efficiency of our approach by applying it to the driven-dissipative two-dimensional X Y Z spin-1/2 model on a lattice.

An evaluation of inferential procedures for adaptive clinical trial designs with pre-specified rules for modifying the sample size.

PubMed

Levin, Gregory P; Emerson, Sarah C; Emerson, Scott S

2014-09-01

Many papers have introduced adaptive clinical trial methods that allow modifications to the sample size based on interim estimates of treatment effect. There has been extensive commentary on type I error control and efficiency considerations, but little research on estimation after an adaptive hypothesis test. We evaluate the reliability and precision of different inferential procedures in the presence of an adaptive design with pre-specified rules for modifying the sampling plan. We extend group sequential orderings of the outcome space based on the stage at stopping, likelihood ratio statistic, and sample mean to the adaptive setting in order to compute median-unbiased point estimates, exact confidence intervals, and P-values uniformly distributed under the null hypothesis. The likelihood ratio ordering is found to average shorter confidence intervals and produce higher probabilities of P-values below important thresholds than alternative approaches. The bias adjusted mean demonstrates the lowest mean squared error among candidate point estimates. A conditional error-based approach in the literature has the benefit of being the only method that accommodates unplanned adaptations. We compare the performance of this and other methods in order to quantify the cost of failing to plan ahead in settings where adaptations could realistically be pre-specified at the design stage. We find the cost to be meaningful for all designs and treatment effects considered, and to be substantial for designs frequently proposed in the literature. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Uncertainty Quantification for Polynomial Systems via Bernstein Expansions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a unifying framework to uncertainty quantification for systems having polynomial response metrics that depend on both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The approach proposed, which is based on the Bernstein expansions of polynomials, enables bounding the range of moments and failure probabilities of response metrics as well as finding supersets of the extreme epistemic realizations where the limits of such ranges occur. These bounds and supersets, whose analytical structure renders them free of approximation error, can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort. Furthermore, this framework enables determining the importance of particular uncertain parameters according to the extent to which they affect the first two moments of response metrics and failure probabilities. This analysis enables determining the parameters that should be considered uncertain as well as those that can be assumed to be constants without incurring significant error. The analytical nature of the approach eliminates the numerical error that characterizes the sampling-based techniques commonly used to propagate aleatory uncertainties as well as the possibility of under predicting the range of the statistic of interest that may result from searching for the best- and worstcase epistemic values via nonlinear optimization or sampling.

Cluster-sample surveys and lot quality assurance sampling to evaluate yellow fever immunisation coverage following a national campaign, Bolivia, 2007.

PubMed

Pezzoli, Lorenzo; Pineda, Silvia; Halkyer, Percy; Crespo, Gladys; Andrews, Nick; Ronveaux, Olivier

2009-03-01

To estimate the yellow fever (YF) vaccine coverage for the endemic and non-endemic areas of Bolivia and to determine whether selected districts had acceptable levels of coverage (>70%). We conducted two surveys of 600 individuals (25 x 12 clusters) to estimate coverage in the endemic and non-endemic areas. We assessed 11 districts using lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS). The lot (district) sample was 35 individuals with six as decision value (alpha error 6% if true coverage 70%; beta error 6% if true coverage 90%). To increase feasibility, we divided the lots into five clusters of seven individuals; to investigate the effect of clustering, we calculated alpha and beta by conducting simulations where each cluster's true coverage was sampled from a normal distribution with a mean of 70% or 90% and standard deviations of 5% or 10%. Estimated coverage was 84.3% (95% CI: 78.9-89.7) in endemic areas, 86.8% (82.5-91.0) in non-endemic and 86.0% (82.8-89.1) nationally. LQAS showed that four lots had unacceptable coverage levels. In six lots, results were inconsistent with the estimated administrative coverage. The simulations suggested that the effect of clustering the lots is unlikely to have significantly increased the risk of making incorrect accept/reject decisions. Estimated YF coverage was high. Discrepancies between administrative coverage and LQAS results may be due to incorrect population data. Even allowing for clustering in LQAS, the statistical errors would remain low. Catch-up campaigns are recommended in districts with unacceptable coverage.

The influence of seine capture efficiency on fish abundance estimates in the upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland Bartels, L. E.; Dewey, M.R.

1997-01-01

The effects of season, presence of vegetation, and time of day on seine capture efficiency for fish were evaluated using test enclosures in the upper Mississippi River. Overall capture efficiency of the seine haul was 49% (53% during the day and 43% at night). During daytime tests, the efficiency ranged from 39% to 74% but did not differ statistically between sites or among dates. At night, the efficiency was higher at the vegetated than at the nonvegetated site (55% vs 32%) and declined through time from 56% in May to 28% in October. Although susceptibility to capture differed among taxa, we could not predict either total catch efficiency or efficiency within a given taxon for a given sample. Adjustment of catch data with various estimates of efficiency reduced the mean absolute error for all sampling dates from 51% to 24%, but the error of the adjusted data still ranged from -58% to +54% on any given sampling date. These results indicate that it is difficult to make accurate adjustment of catch data to compensate for gear bias in studies of seasonal habitat use.

Detection of outliers in the response and explanatory variables of the simple circular regression model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmood, Ehab A.; Rana, Sohel; Hussin, Abdul Ghapor; Midi, Habshah

2016-06-01

The circular regression model may contain one or more data points which appear to be peculiar or inconsistent with the main part of the model. This may be occur due to recording errors, sudden short events, sampling under abnormal conditions etc. The existence of these data points "outliers" in the data set cause lot of problems in the research results and the conclusions. Therefore, we should identify them before applying statistical analysis. In this article, we aim to propose a statistic to identify outliers in the both of the response and explanatory variables of the simple circular regression model. Our proposed statistic is robust circular distance RCDxy and it is justified by the three robust measurements such as proportion of detection outliers, masking and swamping rates.

A Robust Bayesian Random Effects Model for Nonlinear Calibration Problems

PubMed Central

Fong, Y.; Wakefield, J.; De Rosa, S.; Frahm, N.

2013-01-01

Summary In the context of a bioassay or an immunoassay, calibration means fitting a curve, usually nonlinear, through the observations collected on a set of samples containing known concentrations of a target substance, and then using the fitted curve and observations collected on samples of interest to predict the concentrations of the target substance in these samples. Recent technological advances have greatly improved our ability to quantify minute amounts of substance from a tiny volume of biological sample. This has in turn led to a need to improve statistical methods for calibration. In this paper, we focus on developing calibration methods robust to dependent outliers. We introduce a novel normal mixture model with dependent error terms to model the experimental noise. In addition, we propose a re-parameterization of the five parameter logistic nonlinear regression model that allows us to better incorporate prior information. We examine the performance of our methods with simulation studies and show that they lead to a substantial increase in performance measured in terms of mean squared error of estimation and a measure of the average prediction accuracy. A real data example from the HIV Vaccine Trials Network Laboratory is used to illustrate the methods. PMID:22551415

A Complementary Note to 'A Lag-1 Smoother Approach to System-Error Estimation': The Intrinsic Limitations of Residual Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Todling, Ricardo

2015-01-01

Recently, this author studied an approach to the estimation of system error based on combining observation residuals derived from a sequential filter and fixed lag-1 smoother. While extending the methodology to a variational formulation, experimenting with simple models and making sure consistency was found between the sequential and variational formulations, the limitations of the residual-based approach came clearly to the surface. This note uses the sequential assimilation application to simple nonlinear dynamics to highlight the issue. Only when some of the underlying error statistics are assumed known is it possible to estimate the unknown component. In general, when considerable uncertainties exist in the underlying statistics as a whole, attempts to obtain separate estimates of the various error covariances are bound to lead to misrepresentation of errors. The conclusions are particularly relevant to present-day attempts to estimate observation-error correlations from observation residual statistics. A brief illustration of the issue is also provided by comparing estimates of error correlations derived from a quasi-operational assimilation system and a corresponding Observing System Simulation Experiments framework.

Estimating current and future streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites, central and eastern Montana, with application to evaluating effects of climate change on fish populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sando, Roy; Chase, Katherine J.

2017-03-23

A common statistical procedure for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged locations is to develop a relational model between streamflow and drainage basin characteristics at gaged locations using least squares regression analysis; however, least squares regression methods are parametric and make constraining assumptions about the data distribution. The random forest regression method provides an alternative nonparametric method for estimating streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites and requires that the data meet fewer statistical conditions than least squares regression methods.Random forest regression analysis was used to develop predictive models for 89 streamflow characteristics using Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated streamflow data and drainage basin characteristics at 179 sites in central and eastern Montana. The predictive models were developed from streamflow data simulated for current (baseline, water years 1982–99) conditions and three future periods (water years 2021–38, 2046–63, and 2071–88) under three different climate-change scenarios. These predictive models were then used to predict streamflow characteristics for baseline conditions and three future periods at 1,707 fish sampling sites in central and eastern Montana. The average root mean square error for all predictive models was about 50 percent. When streamflow predictions at 23 fish sampling sites were compared to nearby locations with simulated data, the mean relative percent difference was about 43 percent. When predictions were compared to streamflow data recorded at 21 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations outside of the calibration basins, the average mean absolute percent error was about 73 percent.

δ13C and δ18O isotopic composition of CaCO3 measured by continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometry: statistical evaluation and verification by application to Devils Hole core DH-11 calcite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Revesz, Kinga M.; Landwehr, Jurate M.

2002-01-01

A new method was developed to analyze the stable carbon and oxygen isotope ratios of small samples (400 ± 20 µg) of calcium carbonate. This new method streamlines the classical phosphoric acid/calcium carbonate (H3PO4/CaCO3) reaction method by making use of a recently available Thermoquest-Finnigan GasBench II preparation device and a Delta Plus XL continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer. Conditions for which the H3PO4/CaCO3 reaction produced reproducible and accurate results with minimal error had to be determined. When the acid/carbonate reaction temperature was kept at 26 °C and the reaction time was between 24 and 54 h, the precision of the carbon and oxygen isotope ratios for pooled samples from three reference standard materials was ≤0.1 and ≤0.2 per mill or ‰, respectively, although later analysis showed that materials from one specific standard required reaction time between 34 and 54 h for δ18O to achieve this level of precision. Aliquot screening methods were shown to further minimize the total error. The accuracy and precision of the new method were analyzed and confirmed by statistical analysis. The utility of the method was verified by analyzing calcite from Devils Hole, Nevada, for which isotope-ratio values had previously been obtained by the classical method. Devils Hole core DH-11 recently had been re-cut and re-sampled, and isotope-ratio values were obtained using the new method. The results were comparable with those obtained by the classical method with correlation = +0.96 for both isotope ratios. The consistency of the isotopic results is such that an alignment offset could be identified in the re-sampled core material, and two cutting errors that occurred during re-sampling then were confirmed independently. This result indicates that the new method is a viable alternative to the classical reaction method. In particular, the new method requires less sample material permitting finer resolution and allows automation of some processes resulting in considerable time savings. 

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prediction in Model-based Prognostics Using the Unscented Transform

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

bodies becomes greater as surface as- perities wear down (Hutchings, 1992). We characterize friction damage by a change in the friction coefficient...points are such a set, and satisfy an additional constraint in which the skew ( third moment) is minimized, which reduces the average error for a...On sequential Monte Carlo sampling methods for Bayesian filtering. Statistics and Computing, 10, 197–208. Hutchings, I. M. (1992). Tribology : friction

Overlay improvement methods with diffraction based overlay and integrated metrology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nam, Young-Sun; Kim, Sunny; Shin, Ju Hee; Choi, Young Sin; Yun, Sang Ho; Kim, Young Hoon; Shin, Si Woo; Kong, Jeong Heung; Kang, Young Seog; Ha, Hun Hwan

2015-03-01

To accord with new requirement of securing more overlay margin, not only the optical overlay measurement is faced with the technical limitations to represent cell pattern's behavior, but also the larger measurement samples are inevitable for minimizing statistical errors and better estimation of circumstance in a lot. From these reasons, diffraction based overlay (DBO) and integrated metrology (IM) were mainly proposed as new approaches for overlay enhancement in this paper.

Measuring the statistical validity of summary meta‐analysis and meta‐regression results for use in clinical practice

PubMed Central

Riley, Richard D.

2017-01-01

An important question for clinicians appraising a meta‐analysis is: are the findings likely to be valid in their own practice—does the reported effect accurately represent the effect that would occur in their own clinical population? To this end we advance the concept of statistical validity—where the parameter being estimated equals the corresponding parameter for a new independent study. Using a simple (‘leave‐one‐out’) cross‐validation technique, we demonstrate how we may test meta‐analysis estimates for statistical validity using a new validation statistic, Vn, and derive its distribution. We compare this with the usual approach of investigating heterogeneity in meta‐analyses and demonstrate the link between statistical validity and homogeneity. Using a simulation study, the properties of Vn and the Q statistic are compared for univariate random effects meta‐analysis and a tailored meta‐regression model, where information from the setting (included as model covariates) is used to calibrate the summary estimate to the setting of application. Their properties are found to be similar when there are 50 studies or more, but for fewer studies Vn has greater power but a higher type 1 error rate than Q. The power and type 1 error rate of Vn are also shown to depend on the within‐study variance, between‐study variance, study sample size, and the number of studies in the meta‐analysis. Finally, we apply Vn to two published meta‐analyses and conclude that it usefully augments standard methods when deciding upon the likely validity of summary meta‐analysis estimates in clinical practice. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28620945

Sampling procedures for throughfall monitoring: A simulation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Beate; Zimmermann, Alexander; Lark, Richard Murray; Elsenbeer, Helmut

2010-01-01

What is the most appropriate sampling scheme to estimate event-based average throughfall? A satisfactory answer to this seemingly simple question has yet to be found, a failure which we attribute to previous efforts' dependence on empirical studies. Here we try to answer this question by simulating stochastic throughfall fields based on parameters for statistical models of large monitoring data sets. We subsequently sampled these fields with different sampling designs and variable sample supports. We evaluated the performance of a particular sampling scheme with respect to the uncertainty of possible estimated means of throughfall volumes. Even for a relative error limit of 20%, an impractically large number of small, funnel-type collectors would be required to estimate mean throughfall, particularly for small events. While stratification of the target area is not superior to simple random sampling, cluster random sampling involves the risk of being less efficient. A larger sample support, e.g., the use of trough-type collectors, considerably reduces the necessary sample sizes and eliminates the sensitivity of the mean to outliers. Since the gain in time associated with the manual handling of troughs versus funnels depends on the local precipitation regime, the employment of automatically recording clusters of long troughs emerges as the most promising sampling scheme. Even so, a relative error of less than 5% appears out of reach for throughfall under heterogeneous canopies. We therefore suspect a considerable uncertainty of input parameters for interception models derived from measured throughfall, in particular, for those requiring data of small throughfall events.

Empirical performance of interpolation techniques in risk-neutral density (RND) estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bahaludin, H.; Abdullah, M. H.

2017-03-01

The objective of this study is to evaluate the empirical performance of interpolation techniques in risk-neutral density (RND) estimation. Firstly, the empirical performance is evaluated by using statistical analysis based on the implied mean and the implied variance of RND. Secondly, the interpolation performance is measured based on pricing error. We propose using the leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) pricing error for interpolation selection purposes. The statistical analyses indicate that there are statistical differences between the interpolation techniques:second-order polynomial, fourth-order polynomial and smoothing spline. The results of LOOCV pricing error shows that interpolation by using fourth-order polynomial provides the best fitting to option prices in which it has the lowest value error.

Automatic detection of MLC relative position errors for VMAT using the EPID-based picket fence test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christophides, Damianos; Davies, Alex; Fleckney, Mark

2016-12-01

Multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) ensure the accurate delivery of treatments requiring complex beam fluences like intensity modulated radiotherapy and volumetric modulated arc therapy. The purpose of this work is to automate the detection of MLC relative position errors  ⩾0.5 mm using electronic portal imaging device-based picket fence tests and compare the results to the qualitative assessment currently in use. Picket fence tests with and without intentional MLC errors were measured weekly on three Varian linacs. The picket fence images analysed covered a time period ranging between 14-20 months depending on the linac. An algorithm was developed that calculated the MLC error for each leaf-pair present in the picket fence images. The baseline error distributions of each linac were characterised for an initial period of 6 months and compared with the intentional MLC errors using statistical metrics. The distributions of median and one-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test p-value exhibited no overlap between baseline and intentional errors and were used retrospectively to automatically detect MLC errors in routine clinical practice. Agreement was found between the MLC errors detected by the automatic method and the fault reports during clinical use, as well as interventions for MLC repair and calibration. In conclusion the method presented provides for full automation of MLC quality assurance, based on individual linac performance characteristics. The use of the automatic method has been shown to provide early warning for MLC errors that resulted in clinical downtime.

Estimating maize production in Kenya using NDVI: Some statistical considerations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, J.E.; Rowland, James; Nadeau , A.

1998-01-01

A regression model approach using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the potential for estimating crop production in East Africa. However, before production estimation can become a reality, the underlying model assumptions and statistical nature of the sample data (NDVI and crop production) must be examined rigorously. Annual maize production statistics from 1982-90 for 36 agricultural districts within Kenya were used as the dependent variable; median area NDVI (independent variable) values from each agricultural district and year were extracted from the annual maximum NDVI data set. The input data and the statistical association of NDVI with maize production for Kenya were tested systematically for the following items: (1) homogeneity of the data when pooling the sample, (2) gross data errors and influence points, (3) serial (time) correlation, (4) spatial autocorrelation and (5) stability of the regression coefficients. The results of using a simple regression model with NDVI as the only independent variable are encouraging (r 0.75, p 0.05) and illustrate that NDVI can be a responsive indicator of maize production, especially in areas of high NDVI spatial variability, which coincide with areas of production variability in Kenya.

SU-E-T-503: IMRT Optimization Using Monte Carlo Dose Engine: The Effect of Statistical Uncertainty.

PubMed

Tian, Z; Jia, X; Graves, Y; Uribe-Sanchez, A; Jiang, S

2012-06-01

With the development of ultra-fast GPU-based Monte Carlo (MC) dose engine, it becomes clinically realistic to compute the dose-deposition coefficients (DDC) for IMRT optimization using MC simulation. However, it is still time-consuming if we want to compute DDC with small statistical uncertainty. This work studies the effects of the statistical error in DDC matrix on IMRT optimization. The MC-computed DDC matrices are simulated here by adding statistical uncertainties at a desired level to the ones generated with a finite-size pencil beam algorithm. A statistical uncertainty model for MC dose calculation is employed. We adopt a penalty-based quadratic optimization model and gradient descent method to optimize fluence map and then recalculate the corresponding actual dose distribution using the noise-free DDC matrix. The impacts of DDC noise are assessed in terms of the deviation of the resulted dose distributions. We have also used a stochastic perturbation theory to theoretically estimate the statistical errors of dose distributions on a simplified optimization model. A head-and-neck case is used to investigate the perturbation to IMRT plan due to MC's statistical uncertainty. The relative errors of the final dose distributions of the optimized IMRT are found to be much smaller than those in the DDC matrix, which is consistent with our theoretical estimation. When history number is decreased from 108 to 106, the dose-volume-histograms are still very similar to the error-free DVHs while the error in DDC is about 3.8%. The results illustrate that the statistical errors in the DDC matrix have a relatively small effect on IMRT optimization in dose domain. This indicates we can use relatively small number of histories to obtain the DDC matrix with MC simulation within a reasonable amount of time, without considerably compromising the accuracy of the optimized treatment plan. This work is supported by Varian Medical Systems through a Master Research Agreement. © 2012 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

On the predictivity of pore-scale simulations: Estimating uncertainties with multilevel Monte Carlo

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Icardi, Matteo; Boccardo, Gianluca; Tempone, Raúl

2016-09-01

A fast method with tunable accuracy is proposed to estimate errors and uncertainties in pore-scale and Digital Rock Physics (DRP) problems. The overall predictivity of these studies can be, in fact, hindered by many factors including sample heterogeneity, computational and imaging limitations, model inadequacy and not perfectly known physical parameters. The typical objective of pore-scale studies is the estimation of macroscopic effective parameters such as permeability, effective diffusivity and hydrodynamic dispersion. However, these are often non-deterministic quantities (i.e., results obtained for specific pore-scale sample and setup are not totally reproducible by another ;equivalent; sample and setup). The stochastic nature can arise due to the multi-scale heterogeneity, the computational and experimental limitations in considering large samples, and the complexity of the physical models. These approximations, in fact, introduce an error that, being dependent on a large number of complex factors, can be modeled as random. We propose a general simulation tool, based on multilevel Monte Carlo, that can reduce drastically the computational cost needed for computing accurate statistics of effective parameters and other quantities of interest, under any of these random errors. This is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to include Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in pore-scale physics and simulation. The method can also provide estimates of the discretization error and it is tested on three-dimensional transport problems in heterogeneous materials, where the sampling procedure is done by generation algorithms able to reproduce realistic consolidated and unconsolidated random sphere and ellipsoid packings and arrangements. A totally automatic workflow is developed in an open-source code [1], that include rigid body physics and random packing algorithms, unstructured mesh discretization, finite volume solvers, extrapolation and post-processing techniques. The proposed method can be efficiently used in many porous media applications for problems such as stochastic homogenization/upscaling, propagation of uncertainty from microscopic fluid and rock properties to macro-scale parameters, robust estimation of Representative Elementary Volume size for arbitrary physics.

Mapping from disease-specific measures to health-state utility values in individuals with migraine.

PubMed

Gillard, Patrick J; Devine, Beth; Varon, Sepideh F; Liu, Lei; Sullivan, Sean D

2012-05-01

The objective of this study was to develop empirical algorithms that estimate health-state utility values from disease-specific quality-of-life scores in individuals with migraine. Data from a cross-sectional, multicountry study were used. Individuals with episodic and chronic migraine were randomly assigned to training or validation samples. Spearman's correlation coefficients between paired EuroQol five-dimensional (EQ-5D) questionnaire utility values and both Headache Impact Test (HIT-6) scores and Migraine-Specific Quality-of-Life Questionnaire version 2.1 (MSQ) domain scores (role restrictive, role preventive, and emotional function) were examined. Regression models were constructed to estimate EQ-5D questionnaire utility values from the HIT-6 score or the MSQ domain scores. Preferred algorithms were confirmed in the validation samples. In episodic migraine, the preferred HIT-6 and MSQ algorithms explained 22% and 25% of the variance (R(2)) in the training samples, respectively, and had similar prediction errors (root mean square errors of 0.30). In chronic migraine, the preferred HIT-6 and MSQ algorithms explained 36% and 45% of the variance in the training samples, respectively, and had similar prediction errors (root mean square errors 0.31 and 0.29). In episodic and chronic migraine, no statistically significant differences were observed between the mean observed and the mean estimated EQ-5D questionnaire utility values for the preferred HIT-6 and MSQ algorithms in the validation samples. The relationship between the EQ-5D questionnaire and the HIT-6 or the MSQ is adequate to use regression equations to estimate EQ-5D questionnaire utility values. The preferred HIT-6 and MSQ algorithms will be useful in estimating health-state utilities in migraine trials in which no preference-based measure is present. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

MultiGeMS: detection of SNVs from multiple samples using model selection on high-throughput sequencing data.

PubMed

Murillo, Gabriel H; You, Na; Su, Xiaoquan; Cui, Wei; Reilly, Muredach P; Li, Mingyao; Ning, Kang; Cui, Xinping

2016-05-15

Single nucleotide variant (SNV) detection procedures are being utilized as never before to analyze the recent abundance of high-throughput DNA sequencing data, both on single and multiple sample datasets. Building on previously published work with the single sample SNV caller genotype model selection (GeMS), a multiple sample version of GeMS (MultiGeMS) is introduced. Unlike other popular multiple sample SNV callers, the MultiGeMS statistical model accounts for enzymatic substitution sequencing errors. It also addresses the multiple testing problem endemic to multiple sample SNV calling and utilizes high performance computing (HPC) techniques. A simulation study demonstrates that MultiGeMS ranks highest in precision among a selection of popular multiple sample SNV callers, while showing exceptional recall in calling common SNVs. Further, both simulation studies and real data analyses indicate that MultiGeMS is robust to low-quality data. We also demonstrate that accounting for enzymatic substitution sequencing errors not only improves SNV call precision at low mapping quality regions, but also improves recall at reference allele-dominated sites with high mapping quality. The MultiGeMS package can be downloaded from https://github.com/cui-lab/multigems xinping.cui@ucr.edu Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reflexion on linear regression trip production modelling method for ensuring good model quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suprayitno, Hitapriya; Ratnasari, Vita

2017-11-01

Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

Statistics of the radiated field of a space-to-earth microwave power transfer system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stevens, G. H.; Leininger, G.

1976-01-01

Statistics such as average power density pattern, variance of the power density pattern and variance of the beam pointing error are related to hardware parameters such as transmitter rms phase error and rms amplitude error. Also a limitation on spectral width of the phase reference for phase control was established. A 1 km diameter transmitter appears feasible provided the total rms insertion phase errors of the phase control modules does not exceed 10 deg, amplitude errors do not exceed 10% rms, and the phase reference spectral width does not exceed approximately 3 kHz. With these conditions the expected radiation pattern is virtually the same as the error free pattern, and the rms beam pointing error would be insignificant (approximately 10 meters).

Predictors of Errors of Novice Java Programmers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bringula, Rex P.; Manabat, Geecee Maybelline A.; Tolentino, Miguel Angelo A.; Torres, Edmon L.

2012-01-01

This descriptive study determined which of the sources of errors would predict the errors committed by novice Java programmers. Descriptive statistics revealed that the respondents perceived that they committed the identified eighteen errors infrequently. Thought error was perceived to be the main source of error during the laboratory programming…

On the X-ray spectrum of the volume emissivity arising from Abell clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stottlemyer, A. R.; Boldt, E. A.

1984-01-01

HEAO 1 A-2 X-ray spectra (2-15 keV) for an optically selected sample of Abell clusters of galaxies with z less than 0.1 have been analyzed to determine the energy dependence of the cosmological X-ray volume emissivity arising from such clusters. This spectrum is well fitted by an isothermal-bremsstrahlung model with kT = 7.4 + or - 1.5 KeV. This result is a test of the isothermal-volume-emissivity spectrum to be inferred from the conjecture that all contributing clusters may be characterized by kT = 7 keV, as assumed by McKee et al. (1980) in estimating the underlying luminosity function for the same sample. Although satisfied at the statistical level indicated, the analysis of a low-luminosity subsample suggests that this assumption of identical isothermal spectra would lead to a systematic error for a more statistically precise determination of the luminosity function's form.

An Extended Objective Evaluation of the 29-km Eta Model for Weather Support to the United States Space Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nutter, Paul; Manobianco, John

1998-01-01

This report describes the Applied Meteorology Unit's objective verification of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 29-km eta model during separate warm and cool season periods from May 1996 through January 1998. The verification of surface and upper-air point forecasts was performed at three selected stations important for 45th Weather Squadron, Spaceflight Meteorology Group, and National Weather Service, Melbourne operational weather concerns. The statistical evaluation identified model biases that may result from inadequate parameterization of physical processes. Since model biases are relatively small compared to the random error component, most of the total model error results from day-to-day variability in the forecasts and/or observations. To some extent, these nonsystematic errors reflect the variability in point observations that sample spatial and temporal scales of atmospheric phenomena that cannot be resolved by the model. On average, Meso-Eta point forecasts provide useful guidance for predicting the evolution of the larger scale environment. A more substantial challenge facing model users in real time is the discrimination of nonsystematic errors that tend to inflate the total forecast error. It is important that model users maintain awareness of ongoing model changes. Such changes are likely to modify the basic error characteristics, particularly near the surface.

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, Ujjaini; Lasue, Jeremie, E-mail: ujjaini.alam@gmail.com, E-mail: jeremie.lasue@irap.omp.eu

We examine three SNe Type Ia datasets: Union2.1, JLA and Panstarrs to check their consistency using cosmology blind statistical analyses as well as cosmological parameter fitting. We find that the Panstarrs dataset is the most stable of the three to changes in the data, although it does not, at the moment, go to high enough redshifts to tightly constrain the equation of state of dark energy, w . The Union2.1, drawn from several different sources, appears to be somewhat susceptible to changes within the dataset. The JLA reconstructs well for a smaller number of cosmological parameters. At higher degrees ofmore » freedom, the dependence of its errors on redshift can lead to varying results between subsets. Panstarrs is inconsistent with the other two datasets at about 2σ confidence level, and JLA and Union2.1 are about 1σ away from each other. For the Ω{sub 0} {sub m} − w cosmological reconstruction, with no additional data, the 1σ range of values in w for selected subsets of each dataset is two times larger for JLA and Union2.1 as compared to Panstarrs. The range in Ω{sub 0} {sub m} for the same subsets remains approximately similar for all three datasets. We find that although there are differences in the fitting and correction techniques used in the different samples, the most important criterion is the selection of the SNe, a slightly different SNe selection can lead to noticeably different results both in the purely statistical analysis and in cosmological reconstruction. We note that a single, high quality low redshift sample could help decrease the uncertainties in the result. We also note that lack of homogeneity in the magnitude errors may bias the results and should either be modeled, or its effect neutralized by using other, complementary datasets. A supernova sample with high quality data at both high and low redshifts, constructed from a few surveys to avoid heterogeneity in the sample, and with homogeneous errors, would result in a more robust cosmological reconstruction.« less

An Artificial Intelligence Approach to Analyzing Student Errors in Statistics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sebrechts, Marc M.; Schooler, Lael J.

1987-01-01

Describes the development of an artificial intelligence system called GIDE that analyzes student errors in statistics problems by inferring the students' intentions. Learning strategies involved in problem solving are discussed and the inclusion of goal structures is explained. (LRW)

Statistical error model for a solar electric propulsion thrust subsystem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bantell, M. H.

1973-01-01

The solar electric propulsion thrust subsystem statistical error model was developed as a tool for investigating the effects of thrust subsystem parameter uncertainties on navigation accuracy. The model is currently being used to evaluate the impact of electric engine parameter uncertainties on navigation system performance for a baseline mission to Encke's Comet in the 1980s. The data given represent the next generation in statistical error modeling for low-thrust applications. Principal improvements include the representation of thrust uncertainties and random process modeling in terms of random parametric variations in the thrust vector process for a multi-engine configuration.

Empirical investigation into depth-resolution of Magnetotelluric data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piana Agostinetti, N.; Ogaya, X.

2017-12-01

We investigate the depth-resolution of MT data comparing reconstructed 1D resistivity profiles with measured resistivity and lithostratigraphy from borehole data. Inversion of MT data has been widely used to reconstruct the 1D fine-layered resistivity structure beneath an isolated Magnetotelluric (MT) station. Uncorrelated noise is generally assumed to be associated to MT data. However, wrong assumptions on error statistics have been proved to strongly bias the results obtained in geophysical inversions. In particular the number of resolved layers at depth strongly depends on error statistics. In this study, we applied a trans-dimensional McMC algorithm for reconstructing the 1D resistivity profile near-by the location of a 1500 m-deep borehole, using MT data. We resolve the MT inverse problem imposing different models for the error statistics associated to the MT data. Following a Hierachical Bayes' approach, we also inverted for the hyper-parameters associated to each error statistics model. Preliminary results indicate that assuming un-correlated noise leads to a number of resolved layers larger than expected from the retrieved lithostratigraphy. Moreover, comparing the inversion of synthetic resistivity data obtained from the "true" resistivity stratification measured along the borehole shows that a consistent number of resistivity layers can be obtained using a Gaussian model for the error statistics, with substantial correlation length.

Linearised and non-linearised isotherm models optimization analysis by error functions and statistical means

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

In adsorption study, to describe sorption process and evaluation of best-fitting isotherm model is a key analysis to investigate the theoretical hypothesis. Hence, numerous statistically analysis have been extensively used to estimate validity of the experimental equilibrium adsorption values with the predicted equilibrium values. Several statistical error analysis were carried out. In the present study, the following statistical analysis were carried out to evaluate the adsorption isotherm model fitness, like the Pearson correlation, the coefficient of determination and the Chi-square test, have been used. The ANOVA test was carried out for evaluating significance of various error functions and also coefficient of dispersion were evaluated for linearised and non-linearised models. The adsorption of phenol onto natural soil (Local name Kalathur soil) was carried out, in batch mode at 30 ± 20 C. For estimating the isotherm parameters, to get a holistic view of the analysis the models were compared between linear and non-linear isotherm models. The result reveled that, among above mentioned error functions and statistical functions were designed to determine the best fitting isotherm. PMID:25018878

On the application of the Principal Component Analysis for an efficient climate downscaling of surface wind fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, Roberto; Lozano, Sergio; Correia, Pedro; Sanz-Rodrigo, Javier; Probst, Oliver

2013-04-01

With the purpose of efficiently and reliably generating long-term wind resource maps for the wind energy industry, the application and verification of a statistical methodology for the climate downscaling of wind fields at surface level is presented in this work. This procedure is based on the combination of the Monte Carlo and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) statistical methods. Firstly the Monte Carlo method is used to create a huge number of daily-based annual time series, so called climate representative years, by the stratified sampling of a 33-year-long time series corresponding to the available period of the NCAR/NCEP global reanalysis data set (R-2). Secondly the representative years are evaluated such that the best set is chosen according to its capability to recreate the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) temporal and spatial fields from the R-2 data set. The measure of this correspondence is based on the Euclidean distance between the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) spaces generated by the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) decomposition of the SLP fields from both the long-term and the representative year data sets. The methodology was verified by comparing the selected 365-days period against a 9-year period of wind fields generated by dynamical downscaling the Global Forecast System data with the mesoscale model SKIRON for the Iberian Peninsula. These results showed that, compared to the traditional method of dynamical downscaling any random 365-days period, the error in the average wind velocity by the PCA's representative year was reduced by almost 30%. Moreover the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) in the monthly and daily wind profiles were also reduced by almost 25% along all SKIRON grid points. These results showed also that the methodology presented maximum error values in the wind speed mean of 0.8 m/s and maximum MAE in the monthly curves of 0.7 m/s. Besides the bulk numbers, this work shows the spatial distribution of the errors across the Iberian domain and additional wind statistics such as the velocity and directional frequency. Additional repetitions were performed to prove the reliability and robustness of this kind-of statistical-dynamical downscaling method.

Challenges of Big Data Analysis.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Han, Fang; Liu, Han

2014-06-01

Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big Data introduce unique computational and statistical challenges, including scalability and storage bottleneck, noise accumulation, spurious correlation, incidental endogeneity, and measurement errors. These challenges are distinguished and require new computational and statistical paradigm. This article gives overviews on the salient features of Big Data and how these features impact on paradigm change on statistical and computational methods as well as computing architectures. We also provide various new perspectives on the Big Data analysis and computation. In particular, we emphasize on the viability of the sparsest solution in high-confidence set and point out that exogeneous assumptions in most statistical methods for Big Data can not be validated due to incidental endogeneity. They can lead to wrong statistical inferences and consequently wrong scientific conclusions.

Challenges of Big Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Han, Fang; Liu, Han

2014-01-01

Big Data bring new opportunities to modern society and challenges to data scientists. On one hand, Big Data hold great promises for discovering subtle population patterns and heterogeneities that are not possible with small-scale data. On the other hand, the massive sample size and high dimensionality of Big Data introduce unique computational and statistical challenges, including scalability and storage bottleneck, noise accumulation, spurious correlation, incidental endogeneity, and measurement errors. These challenges are distinguished and require new computational and statistical paradigm. This article gives overviews on the salient features of Big Data and how these features impact on paradigm change on statistical and computational methods as well as computing architectures. We also provide various new perspectives on the Big Data analysis and computation. In particular, we emphasize on the viability of the sparsest solution in high-confidence set and point out that exogeneous assumptions in most statistical methods for Big Data can not be validated due to incidental endogeneity. They can lead to wrong statistical inferences and consequently wrong scientific conclusions. PMID:25419469

Determination of Type I Error Rates and Power of Answer Copying Indices under Various Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yormaz, Seha; Sünbül, Önder

2017-01-01

This study aims to determine the Type I error rates and power of S[subscript 1] , S[subscript 2] indices and kappa statistic at detecting copying on multiple-choice tests under various conditions. It also aims to determine how copying groups are created in order to calculate how kappa statistics affect Type I error rates and power. In this study,…

Profiles of second- to third-order moments of turbulent temperature fluctuations in the convective boundary layer: first measurements with Rotational Raman Lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behrendt, A.; Wulfmeyer, V.; Hammann, E.; Muppa, S. K.; Pal, S.

2014-11-01

The rotational Raman lidar of the University of Hohenheim (UHOH) measures atmospheric temperature profiles during daytime with high resolution (10 s, 109 m). The data contain low noise errors even in daytime due to the use of strong UV laser light (355 nm, 10 W, 50 Hz) and a very efficient interference-filter-based polychromator. In this paper, we present the first profiling of the second- to forth-order moments of turbulent temperature fluctuations as well as of skewness and kurtosis in the convective boundary layer (CBL) including the interfacial layer (IL). The results demonstrate that the UHOH RRL resolves the vertical structure of these moments. The data set which is used for this case study was collected in western Germany (50°53'50.56'' N, 6°27'50.39'' E, 110 m a.s.l.) within one hour around local noon on 24 April 2013 during the Intensive Observations Period (IOP) 6 of the HD(CP)2 Observational Prototype Experiment (HOPE), which is embedded in the German project HD(CP)2 (High-Definition Clouds and Precipitation for advancing Climate Prediction). First, we investigated profiles of the noise variance and compared it with estimates of the statistical temperature measurement uncertainty Δ T based on Poisson statistics. The agreement confirms that photon count numbers obtained from extrapolated analog signal intensities provide a lower estimate of the statistical errors. The total statistical uncertainty of a 20 min temperature measurement is lower than 0.1 K up to 1050 m a.g.l. at noontime; even for single 10 s temperature profiles, it is smaller than 1 K up to 1000 m a.g.l.. Then we confirmed by autocovariance and spectral analyses of the atmospheric temperature fluctuations that a temporal resolution of 10 s was sufficient to resolve the turbulence down to the inertial subrange. This is also indicated by the profile of the integral scale of the temperature fluctuations, which was in the range of 40 to 120 s in the CBL. Analyzing then profiles of the second-, third-, and forth-order moments, we found the largest values of all moments in the IL around the mean top of the CBL which was located at 1230 m a.g.l. The maximum of the variance profile in the IL was 0.40 K2 with 0.06 and 0.08 K2 for the sampling error and noise error, respectively. The third-order moment was not significantly different from zero inside the CBL but showed a negative peak in the IL with a minimum of -0.72 K3 and values of 0.06 and 0.14 K3 for the sampling and noise errors, respectively. The forth-order moment and kurtosis values throughout the CBL were quasi-normal.

An analytic technique for statistically modeling random atomic clock errors in estimation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fell, P. J.

1981-01-01

Minimum variance estimation requires that the statistics of random observation errors be modeled properly. If measurements are derived through the use of atomic frequency standards, then one source of error affecting the observable is random fluctuation in frequency. This is the case, for example, with range and integrated Doppler measurements from satellites of the Global Positioning and baseline determination for geodynamic applications. An analytic method is presented which approximates the statistics of this random process. The procedure starts with a model of the Allan variance for a particular oscillator and develops the statistics of range and integrated Doppler measurements. A series of five first order Markov processes is used to approximate the power spectral density obtained from the Allan variance.

Evaluation of assumptions in soil moisture triple collocation analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Triple collocation analysis (TCA) enables estimation of error variances for three or more products that retrieve or estimate the same geophysical variable using mutually-independent methods. Several statistical assumptions regarding the statistical nature of errors (e.g., mutual independence and ort...

Issues with data and analyses: Errors, underlying themes, and potential solutions

PubMed Central

Allison, David B.

2018-01-01

Some aspects of science, taken at the broadest level, are universal in empirical research. These include collecting, analyzing, and reporting data. In each of these aspects, errors can and do occur. In this work, we first discuss the importance of focusing on statistical and data errors to continually improve the practice of science. We then describe underlying themes of the types of errors and postulate contributing factors. To do so, we describe a case series of relatively severe data and statistical errors coupled with surveys of some types of errors to better characterize the magnitude, frequency, and trends. Having examined these errors, we then discuss the consequences of specific errors or classes of errors. Finally, given the extracted themes, we discuss methodological, cultural, and system-level approaches to reducing the frequency of commonly observed errors. These approaches will plausibly contribute to the self-critical, self-correcting, ever-evolving practice of science, and ultimately to furthering knowledge. PMID:29531079

OB Stars and Cepheids From the Gaia TGAS Catalogue: Test of their Distances and Proper Motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobylev, Vadim V.; Bajkova, Anisa T.

2017-12-01

We consider young distant stars from the Gaia TGAS catalog. These are 250 classical Cepheids and 244 OB stars located at distances up to 4 kpc from the Sun. These stars are used to determine the Galactic rotation parameters using both trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions of the TGAS stars. In this case the considered stars have relative parallax errors less than 200%. Following the well-known statistical approach, we assume that the kinematic parameters found from the line-of-sight velocities Vr are less dependent on errors of distances than the found from the velocity components Vl. From values of the first derivative of the Galactic rotation angular velocity '0, found from the analysis of velocities Vr and Vl separately, the scale factor of distances is determined.We found that from the sample of Cepheids the scale of distances of the TGAS should be reduced by 3%, and from the sample of OB stars, on the contrary, the scale should be increased by 9%.

Statistical variation in progressive scrambling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Robert D.; Fox, Peter C.

2004-07-01

The two methods most often used to evaluate the robustness and predictivity of partial least squares (PLS) models are cross-validation and response randomization. Both methods may be overly optimistic for data sets that contain redundant observations, however. The kinds of perturbation analysis widely used for evaluating model stability in the context of ordinary least squares regression are only applicable when the descriptors are independent of each other and errors are independent and normally distributed; neither assumption holds for QSAR in general and for PLS in particular. Progressive scrambling is a novel, non-parametric approach to perturbing models in the response space in a way that does not disturb the underlying covariance structure of the data. Here, we introduce adjustments for two of the characteristic values produced by a progressive scrambling analysis - the deprecated predictivity (Q_s^{ast^2}) and standard error of prediction (SDEP s * ) - that correct for the effect of introduced perturbation. We also explore the statistical behavior of the adjusted values (Q_0^{ast^2} and SDEP 0 * ) and the sensitivity to perturbation (d q 2/d r yy ' 2). It is shown that the three statistics are all robust for stable PLS models, in terms of the stochastic component of their determination and of their variation due to sampling effects involved in training set selection.

Exact test-based approach for equivalence test with parameter margin.

PubMed

Cassie Dong, Xiaoyu; Bian, Yuanyuan; Tsong, Yi; Wang, Tianhua

2017-01-01

The equivalence test has a wide range of applications in pharmaceutical statistics which we need to test for the similarity between two groups. In recent years, the equivalence test has been used in assessing the analytical similarity between a proposed biosimilar product and a reference product. More specifically, the mean values of the two products for a given quality attribute are compared against an equivalence margin in the form of ±f × σ R , where ± f × σ R is a function of the reference variability. In practice, this margin is unknown and is estimated from the sample as ±f × S R . If we use this estimated margin with the classic t-test statistic on the equivalence test for the means, both Type I and Type II error rates may inflate. To resolve this issue, we develop an exact-based test method and compare this method with other proposed methods, such as the Wald test, the constrained Wald test, and the Generalized Pivotal Quantity (GPQ) in terms of Type I error rate and power. Application of those methods on data analysis is also provided in this paper. This work focuses on the development and discussion of the general statistical methodology and is not limited to the application of analytical similarity.

Microscopic saw mark analysis: an empirical approach.

PubMed

Love, Jennifer C; Derrick, Sharon M; Wiersema, Jason M; Peters, Charles

2015-01-01

Microscopic saw mark analysis is a well published and generally accepted qualitative analytical method. However, little research has focused on identifying and mitigating potential sources of error associated with the method. The presented study proposes the use of classification trees and random forest classifiers as an optimal, statistically sound approach to mitigate the potential for error of variability and outcome error in microscopic saw mark analysis. The statistical model was applied to 58 experimental saw marks created with four types of saws. The saw marks were made in fresh human femurs obtained through anatomical gift and were analyzed using a Keyence digital microscope. The statistical approach weighed the variables based on discriminatory value and produced decision trees with an associated outcome error rate of 8.62-17.82%. © 2014 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Statistical design and analysis for plant cover studies with multiple sources of observation errors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wright, Wilson; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Warren, Jeffrey M .; Barnett, Jenny K.

2017-01-01

Effective wildlife habitat management and conservation requires understanding the factors influencing distribution and abundance of plant species. Field studies, however, have documented observation errors in visually estimated plant cover including measurements which differ from the true value (measurement error) and not observing a species that is present within a plot (detection error). Unlike the rapid expansion of occupancy and N-mixture models for analysing wildlife surveys, development of statistical models accounting for observation error in plants has not progressed quickly. Our work informs development of a monitoring protocol for managed wetlands within the National Wildlife Refuge System.Zero-augmented beta (ZAB) regression is the most suitable method for analysing areal plant cover recorded as a continuous proportion but assumes no observation errors. We present a model extension that explicitly includes the observation process thereby accounting for both measurement and detection errors. Using simulations, we compare our approach to a ZAB regression that ignores observation errors (naïve model) and an “ad hoc” approach using a composite of multiple observations per plot within the naïve model. We explore how sample size and within-season revisit design affect the ability to detect a change in mean plant cover between 2 years using our model.Explicitly modelling the observation process within our framework produced unbiased estimates and nominal coverage of model parameters. The naïve and “ad hoc” approaches resulted in underestimation of occurrence and overestimation of mean cover. The degree of bias was primarily driven by imperfect detection and its relationship with cover within a plot. Conversely, measurement error had minimal impacts on inferences. We found >30 plots with at least three within-season revisits achieved reasonable posterior probabilities for assessing change in mean plant cover.For rapid adoption and application, code for Bayesian estimation of our single-species ZAB with errors model is included. Practitioners utilizing our R-based simulation code can explore trade-offs among different survey efforts and parameter values, as we did, but tuned to their own investigation. Less abundant plant species of high ecological interest may warrant the additional cost of gathering multiple independent observations in order to guard against erroneous conclusions.

The Effect of Random Error on Diagnostic Accuracy Illustrated with the Anthropometric Diagnosis of Malnutrition

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background It is often thought that random measurement error has a minor effect upon the results of an epidemiological survey. Theoretically, errors of measurement should always increase the spread of a distribution. Defining an illness by having a measurement outside an established healthy range will lead to an inflated prevalence of that condition if there are measurement errors. Methods and results A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted of anthropometric assessment of children with malnutrition. Random errors of increasing magnitude were imposed upon the populations and showed that there was an increase in the standard deviation with each of the errors that became exponentially greater with the magnitude of the error. The potential magnitude of the resulting error of reported prevalence of malnutrition were compared with published international data and found to be of sufficient magnitude to make a number of surveys and the numerous reports and analyses that used these data unreliable. Conclusions The effect of random error in public health surveys and the data upon which diagnostic cut-off points are derived to define “health” has been underestimated. Even quite modest random errors can more than double the reported prevalence of conditions such as malnutrition. Increasing sample size does not address this problem, and may even result in less accurate estimates. More attention needs to be paid to the selection, calibration and maintenance of instruments, measurer selection, training & supervision, routine estimation of the likely magnitude of errors using standardization tests, use of statistical likelihood of error to exclude data from analysis and full reporting of these procedures in order to judge the reliability of survey reports. PMID:28030627

Investigating the role of background and observation error correlations in improving a model forecast of forest carbon balance using four dimensional variational data assimilation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinnington, Ewan; Casella, Eric; Dance, Sarah; Lawless, Amos; Morison, James; Nichols, Nancy; Wilkinson, Matthew; Quaife, Tristan

2016-04-01

Forest ecosystems play an important role in sequestering human emitted carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere and therefore greatly reduce the effect of anthropogenic induced climate change. For that reason understanding their response to climate change is of great importance. Efforts to implement variational data assimilation routines with functional ecology models and land surface models have been limited, with sequential and Markov chain Monte Carlo data assimilation methods being prevalent. When data assimilation has been used with models of carbon balance, background "prior" errors and observation errors have largely been treated as independent and uncorrelated. Correlations between background errors have long been known to be a key aspect of data assimilation in numerical weather prediction. More recently, it has been shown that accounting for correlated observation errors in the assimilation algorithm can considerably improve data assimilation results and forecasts. In this paper we implement a 4D-Var scheme with a simple model of forest carbon balance, for joint parameter and state estimation and assimilate daily observations of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange (NEE) taken at the Alice Holt forest CO2 flux site in Hampshire, UK. We then investigate the effect of specifying correlations between parameter and state variables in background error statistics and the effect of specifying correlations in time between observation error statistics. The idea of including these correlations in time is new and has not been previously explored in carbon balance model data assimilation. In data assimilation, background and observation error statistics are often described by the background error covariance matrix and the observation error covariance matrix. We outline novel methods for creating correlated versions of these matrices, using a set of previously postulated dynamical constraints to include correlations in the background error statistics and a Gaussian correlation function to include time correlations in the observation error statistics. The methods used in this paper will allow the inclusion of time correlations between many different observation types in the assimilation algorithm, meaning that previously neglected information can be accounted for. In our experiments we compared the results using our new correlated background and observation error covariance matrices and those using diagonal covariance matrices. We found that using the new correlated matrices reduced the root mean square error in the 14 year forecast of daily NEE by 44 % decreasing from 4.22 g C m-2 day-1 to 2.38 g C m-2 day-1.

Assessing Statistically Significant Heavy-Metal Concentrations in Abandoned Mine Areas via Hot Spot Analysis of Portable XRF Data

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung-Min; Choi, Yosoon

2017-01-01

To develop appropriate measures to prevent soil contamination in abandoned mining areas, an understanding of the spatial variation of the potentially toxic trace elements (PTEs) in the soil is necessary. For the purpose of effective soil sampling, this study uses hot spot analysis, which calculates a z-score based on the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify a statistically significant hot spot sample. To constitute a statistically significant hot spot, a feature with a high value should also be surrounded by other features with high values. Using relatively cost- and time-effective portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) analysis, sufficient input data are acquired from the Busan abandoned mine and used for hot spot analysis. To calibrate the PXRF data, which have a relatively low accuracy, the PXRF analysis data are transformed using the inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) data. The transformed PXRF data of the Busan abandoned mine are classified into four groups according to their normalized content and z-scores: high content with a high z-score (HH), high content with a low z-score (HL), low content with a high z-score (LH), and low content with a low z-score (LL). The HL and LH cases may be due to measurement errors. Additional or complementary surveys are required for the areas surrounding these suspect samples or for significant hot spot areas. The soil sampling is conducted according to a four-phase procedure in which the hot spot analysis and proposed group classification method are employed to support the development of a sampling plan for the following phase. Overall, 30, 50, 80, and 100 samples are investigated and analyzed in phases 1–4, respectively. The method implemented in this case study may be utilized in the field for the assessment of statistically significant soil contamination and the identification of areas for which an additional survey is required. PMID:28629168

Assessing Statistically Significant Heavy-Metal Concentrations in Abandoned Mine Areas via Hot Spot Analysis of Portable XRF Data.

PubMed

Kim, Sung-Min; Choi, Yosoon

2017-06-18

To develop appropriate measures to prevent soil contamination in abandoned mining areas, an understanding of the spatial variation of the potentially toxic trace elements (PTEs) in the soil is necessary. For the purpose of effective soil sampling, this study uses hot spot analysis, which calculates a z -score based on the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic to identify a statistically significant hot spot sample. To constitute a statistically significant hot spot, a feature with a high value should also be surrounded by other features with high values. Using relatively cost- and time-effective portable X-ray fluorescence (PXRF) analysis, sufficient input data are acquired from the Busan abandoned mine and used for hot spot analysis. To calibrate the PXRF data, which have a relatively low accuracy, the PXRF analysis data are transformed using the inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) data. The transformed PXRF data of the Busan abandoned mine are classified into four groups according to their normalized content and z -scores: high content with a high z -score (HH), high content with a low z -score (HL), low content with a high z -score (LH), and low content with a low z -score (LL). The HL and LH cases may be due to measurement errors. Additional or complementary surveys are required for the areas surrounding these suspect samples or for significant hot spot areas. The soil sampling is conducted according to a four-phase procedure in which the hot spot analysis and proposed group classification method are employed to support the development of a sampling plan for the following phase. Overall, 30, 50, 80, and 100 samples are investigated and analyzed in phases 1-4, respectively. The method implemented in this case study may be utilized in the field for the assessment of statistically significant soil contamination and the identification of areas for which an additional survey is required.

Use of error grid analysis to evaluate acceptability of a point of care prothrombin time meter.

PubMed

Petersen, John R; Vonmarensdorf, Hans M; Weiss, Heidi L; Elghetany, M Tarek

2010-02-01

Statistical methods (linear regression, correlation analysis, etc.) are frequently employed in comparing methods in the central laboratory (CL). Assessing acceptability of point of care testing (POCT) equipment, however, is more difficult because statistically significant biases may not have an impact on clinical care. We showed how error grid (EG) analysis can be used to evaluate POCT PT INR with the CL. We compared results from 103 patients seen in an anti-coagulation clinic that were on Coumadin maintenance therapy using fingerstick samples for POCT (Roche CoaguChek XS and S) and citrated venous blood samples for CL (Stago STAR). To compare clinical acceptability of results we developed an EG with zones A, B, C and D. Using 2nd order polynomial equation analysis, POCT results highly correlate with the CL for CoaguChek XS (R(2)=0. 955) and CoaguChek S (R(2)=0. 93), respectively but does not indicate if POCT results are clinically interchangeable with the CL. Using EG it is readily apparent which levels can be considered clinically identical to the CL despite analytical bias. We have demonstrated the usefulness of EG in determining acceptability of POCT PT INR testing and how it can be used to determine cut-offs where differences in POCT results may impact clinical care. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias

2010-01-01

A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.

Evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater recharged by cyclones and groundwater age estimations using the 14C statistical approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meredith, K. T.; Han, L. F.; Cendón, D. I.; Crawford, J.; Hankin, S.; Peterson, M.; Hollins, S. E.

2018-01-01

The Canning Basin is the largest sedimentary basin in Western Australia and is located in one of the most cyclone prone regions of Australia. Despite its importance as a future resource, limited groundwater data is available for the Basin. The main aims of this paper are to provide a detailed understanding of the source of groundwater recharge, the chemical evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and provide groundwater age estimations using radiocarbon (14CDIC). To do this we combine hydrochemical and isotopic techniques to investigate the type of precipitation that recharge the aquifer and identify the carbon processes influencing 14CDIC, δ13CDIC, and [DIC]. This enables us to select an appropriate model for calculating radiocarbon ages in groundwater. The aquifer was found to be recharged by precipitation originating from tropical cyclones imparting lower average δ2H and δ18O values in groundwater (-56.9‰ and -7.87‰, respectively). Water recharges the soil zone rapidly after these events and the groundwater undergoes silicate mineral weathering and clay mineral transformation processes. It was also found that partial carbonate dissolution processes occur within the saturated zone under closed system conditions. Additionally, the processes could be lumped into a pseudo-first-order process and the age could be estimated using the 14C statistical approach. In the single-sample-based 14C models, 14C0 is the initial 14CDIC value used in the decay equation that considers only 14C decay rate. A major advantage of using the statistical approach is that both 14C decay and geochemical processes that cause the decrease in 14CDIC are accounted for in the calculation. The 14CDIC values of groundwater were found to increase from 89 pmc in the south east to around 16 pmc along the groundwater flow path towards the coast indicating ages ranging from modern to 5.3 ka. A test of the sensitivity of this method showed that a ∼15% error could be found for the oldest water. This error was low when compared to single-sample-based models. This study not only provides the first groundwater age estimations for the Canning Basin but is the first groundwater dating study to test the sensitivity of the statistical approach and provide meaningful error calculations for groundwater dating.

SU-G-JeP1-12: Head-To-Head Performance Characterization of Two Multileaf Collimator Tracking Algorithms for Radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caillet, V; Colvill, E; Royal North Shore Hospital, St Leonards, Sydney

2016-06-15

Purpose: Multi-leaf collimator (MLC) tracking is being clinically pioneered to continuously compensate for thoracic and abdominal motion during radiotherapy. The purpose of this work is to characterize the performance of two MLC tracking algorithms for cancer radiotherapy, based on a direct optimization and a piecewise leaf fitting approach respectively. Methods: To test the algorithms, both physical and in silico experiments were performed. Previously published high and low modulation VMAT plans for lung and prostate cancer cases were used along with eight patient-measured organ-specific trajectories. For both MLC tracking algorithm, the plans were run with their corresponding patient trajectories. The physicalmore » experiments were performed on a Trilogy Varian linac and a programmable phantom (HexaMotion platform). For each MLC tracking algorithm, plan and patient trajectory, the tracking accuracy was quantified as the difference in aperture area between ideal and fitted MLC. To compare algorithms, the average cumulative tracking error area for each experiment was calculated. The two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test was used to evaluate the cumulative tracking errors between algorithms. Results: Comparison of tracking errors for the physical and in silico experiments showed minor differences between the two algorithms. The KS D-statistics for the physical experiments were below 0.05 denoting no significant differences between the two distributions pattern and the average error area (direct optimization/piecewise leaf-fitting) were comparable (66.64 cm2/65.65 cm2). For the in silico experiments, the KS D-statistics were below 0.05 and the average errors area were also equivalent (49.38 cm2/48.98 cm2). Conclusion: The comparison between the two leaf fittings algorithms demonstrated no significant differences in tracking errors, neither in a clinically realistic environment nor in silico. The similarities in the two independent algorithms give confidence in the use of either algorithm for clinical implementation.« less

Comparison of Accuracy in Intraocular Lens Power Calculation by Measuring Axial Length with Immersion Ultrasound Biometry and Partial Coherence Interferometry.

PubMed

Ruangsetakit, Varee

2015-11-01

To re-examine relative accuracy of intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation of immersion ultrasound biometry (IUB) and partial coherence interferometry (PCI) based on a new approach that limits its interest on the cases in which the IUB's IOL and PCI's IOL assignments disagree. Prospective observational study of 108 eyes that underwent cataract surgeries at Taksin Hospital. Two halves ofthe randomly chosen sample eyes were implanted with the IUB- and PCI-assigned lens. Postoperative refractive errors were measured in the fifth week. More accurate calculation was based on significantly smaller mean absolute errors (MAEs) and root mean squared errors (RMSEs) away from emmetropia. The distributions of the errors were examined to ensure that the higher accuracy was significant clinically as well. The (MAEs, RMSEs) were smaller for PCI of (0.5106 diopter (D), 0.6037D) than for IUB of (0.7000D, 0.8062D). The higher accuracy was principally contributedfrom negative errors, i.e., myopia. The MAEs and RMSEs for (IUB, PCI)'s negative errors were (0.7955D, 0.5185D) and (0.8562D, 0.5853D). Their differences were significant. The 72.34% of PCI errors fell within a clinically accepted range of ± 0.50D, whereas 50% of IUB errors did. PCI's higher accuracy was significant statistically and clinically, meaning that lens implantation based on PCI's assignments could improve postoperative outcomes over those based on IUB's assignments.

Measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution with source state errors and statistical fluctuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Cong; Yu, Zong-Wen; Wang, Xiang-Bin

2017-03-01

We show how to calculate the secure final key rate in the four-intensity decoy-state measurement-device-independent quantum key distribution protocol with both source errors and statistical fluctuations with a certain failure probability. Our results rely only on the range of only a few parameters in the source state. All imperfections in this protocol have been taken into consideration without assuming any specific error patterns of the source.

Error Analysis for RADAR Neighbor Matching Localization in Linear Logarithmic Strength Varying Wi-Fi Environment

PubMed Central

Tian, Zengshan; Xu, Kunjie; Yu, Xiang

2014-01-01

This paper studies the statistical errors for the fingerprint-based RADAR neighbor matching localization with the linearly calibrated reference points (RPs) in logarithmic received signal strength (RSS) varying Wi-Fi environment. To the best of our knowledge, little comprehensive analysis work has appeared on the error performance of neighbor matching localization with respect to the deployment of RPs. However, in order to achieve the efficient and reliable location-based services (LBSs) as well as the ubiquitous context-awareness in Wi-Fi environment, much attention has to be paid to the highly accurate and cost-efficient localization systems. To this end, the statistical errors by the widely used neighbor matching localization are significantly discussed in this paper to examine the inherent mathematical relations between the localization errors and the locations of RPs by using a basic linear logarithmic strength varying model. Furthermore, based on the mathematical demonstrations and some testing results, the closed-form solutions to the statistical errors by RADAR neighbor matching localization can be an effective tool to explore alternative deployment of fingerprint-based neighbor matching localization systems in the future. PMID:24683349

Error analysis for RADAR neighbor matching localization in linear logarithmic strength varying Wi-Fi environment.

PubMed

Zhou, Mu; Tian, Zengshan; Xu, Kunjie; Yu, Xiang; Wu, Haibo

2014-01-01

This paper studies the statistical errors for the fingerprint-based RADAR neighbor matching localization with the linearly calibrated reference points (RPs) in logarithmic received signal strength (RSS) varying Wi-Fi environment. To the best of our knowledge, little comprehensive analysis work has appeared on the error performance of neighbor matching localization with respect to the deployment of RPs. However, in order to achieve the efficient and reliable location-based services (LBSs) as well as the ubiquitous context-awareness in Wi-Fi environment, much attention has to be paid to the highly accurate and cost-efficient localization systems. To this end, the statistical errors by the widely used neighbor matching localization are significantly discussed in this paper to examine the inherent mathematical relations between the localization errors and the locations of RPs by using a basic linear logarithmic strength varying model. Furthermore, based on the mathematical demonstrations and some testing results, the closed-form solutions to the statistical errors by RADAR neighbor matching localization can be an effective tool to explore alternative deployment of fingerprint-based neighbor matching localization systems in the future.

Autonomous spatially adaptive sampling in experiments based on curvature, statistical error and sample spacing with applications in LDA measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theunissen, Raf; Kadosh, Jesse S.; Allen, Christian B.

2015-06-01

Spatially varying signals are typically sampled by collecting uniformly spaced samples irrespective of the signal content. For signals with inhomogeneous information content, this leads to unnecessarily dense sampling in regions of low interest or insufficient sample density at important features, or both. A new adaptive sampling technique is presented directing sample collection in proportion to local information content, capturing adequately the short-period features while sparsely sampling less dynamic regions. The proposed method incorporates a data-adapted sampling strategy on the basis of signal curvature, sample space-filling, variable experimental uncertainty and iterative improvement. Numerical assessment has indicated a reduction in the number of samples required to achieve a predefined uncertainty level overall while improving local accuracy for important features. The potential of the proposed method has been further demonstrated on the basis of Laser Doppler Anemometry experiments examining the wake behind a NACA0012 airfoil and the boundary layer characterisation of a flat plate.

Scout trajectory error propagation computer program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myler, T. R.

1982-01-01

Since 1969, flight experience has been used as the basis for predicting Scout orbital accuracy. The data used for calculating the accuracy consists of errors in the trajectory parameters (altitude, velocity, etc.) at stage burnout as observed on Scout flights. Approximately 50 sets of errors are used in Monte Carlo analysis to generate error statistics in the trajectory parameters. A covariance matrix is formed which may be propagated in time. The mechanization of this process resulted in computer program Scout Trajectory Error Propagation (STEP) and is described herein. Computer program STEP may be used in conjunction with the Statistical Orbital Analysis Routine to generate accuracy in the orbit parameters (apogee, perigee, inclination, etc.) based upon flight experience.

How to Create Automatically Graded Spreadsheets for Statistics Courses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

LoSchiavo, Frank M.

2016-01-01

Instructors often use spreadsheet software (e.g., Microsoft Excel) in their statistics courses so that students can gain experience conducting computerized analyses. Unfortunately, students tend to make several predictable errors when programming spreadsheets. Without immediate feedback, programming errors are likely to go undetected, and as a…

Evaluation of logistic regression models and effect of covariates for case-control study in RNA-Seq analysis.

PubMed

Choi, Seung Hoan; Labadorf, Adam T; Myers, Richard H; Lunetta, Kathryn L; Dupuis, Josée; DeStefano, Anita L

2017-02-06

Next generation sequencing provides a count of RNA molecules in the form of short reads, yielding discrete, often highly non-normally distributed gene expression measurements. Although Negative Binomial (NB) regression has been generally accepted in the analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq) data, its appropriateness has not been exhaustively evaluated. We explore logistic regression as an alternative method for RNA-Seq studies designed to compare cases and controls, where disease status is modeled as a function of RNA-Seq reads using simulated and Huntington disease data. We evaluate the effect of adjusting for covariates that have an unknown relationship with gene expression. Finally, we incorporate the data adaptive method in order to compare false positive rates. When the sample size is small or the expression levels of a gene are highly dispersed, the NB regression shows inflated Type-I error rates but the Classical logistic and Bayes logistic (BL) regressions are conservative. Firth's logistic (FL) regression performs well or is slightly conservative. Large sample size and low dispersion generally make Type-I error rates of all methods close to nominal alpha levels of 0.05 and 0.01. However, Type-I error rates are controlled after applying the data adaptive method. The NB, BL, and FL regressions gain increased power with large sample size, large log2 fold-change, and low dispersion. The FL regression has comparable power to NB regression. We conclude that implementing the data adaptive method appropriately controls Type-I error rates in RNA-Seq analysis. Firth's logistic regression provides a concise statistical inference process and reduces spurious associations from inaccurately estimated dispersion parameters in the negative binomial framework.

Efficient Robust Regression via Two-Stage Generalized Empirical Likelihood

PubMed Central

Bondell, Howard D.; Stefanski, Leonard A.

2013-01-01

Large- and finite-sample efficiency and resistance to outliers are the key goals of robust statistics. Although often not simultaneously attainable, we develop and study a linear regression estimator that comes close. Efficiency obtains from the estimator’s close connection to generalized empirical likelihood, and its favorable robustness properties are obtained by constraining the associated sum of (weighted) squared residuals. We prove maximum attainable finite-sample replacement breakdown point, and full asymptotic efficiency for normal errors. Simulation evidence shows that compared to existing robust regression estimators, the new estimator has relatively high efficiency for small sample sizes, and comparable outlier resistance. The estimator is further illustrated and compared to existing methods via application to a real data set with purported outliers. PMID:23976805

Meta-analysis inside and outside particle physics: two traditions that should converge?

PubMed

Baker, Rose D; Jackson, Dan

2013-06-01

The use of meta-analysis in medicine and epidemiology really took off in the 1970s. However, in high-energy physics, the Particle Data Group has been carrying out meta-analyses of measurements of particle masses and other properties since 1957. Curiously, there has been virtually no interaction between those working inside and outside particle physics. In this paper, we use statistical models to study two major differences in practice. The first is the usefulness of systematic errors, which physicists are now beginning to quote in addition to statistical errors. The second is whether it is better to treat heterogeneity by scaling up errors as do the Particle Data Group or by adding a random effect as does the rest of the community. Besides fitting models, we derive and use an exact test of the error-scaling hypothesis. We also discuss the other methodological differences between the two streams of meta-analysis. Our conclusion is that systematic errors are not currently very useful and that the conventional random effects model, as routinely used in meta-analysis, has a useful role to play in particle physics. The moral we draw for statisticians is that we should be more willing to explore 'grassroots' areas of statistical application, so that good statistical practice can flow both from and back to the statistical mainstream. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modular reweighting software for statistical mechanical analysis of biased equilibrium data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sindhikara, Daniel J.

2012-07-01

Here a simple, useful, modular approach and software suite designed for statistical reweighting and analysis of equilibrium ensembles is presented. Statistical reweighting is useful and sometimes necessary for analysis of equilibrium enhanced sampling methods, such as umbrella sampling or replica exchange, and also in experimental cases where biasing factors are explicitly known. Essentially, statistical reweighting allows extrapolation of data from one or more equilibrium ensembles to another. Here, the fundamental separable steps of statistical reweighting are broken up into modules - allowing for application to the general case and avoiding the black-box nature of some “all-inclusive” reweighting programs. Additionally, the programs included are, by-design, written with little dependencies. The compilers required are either pre-installed on most systems, or freely available for download with minimal trouble. Examples of the use of this suite applied to umbrella sampling and replica exchange molecular dynamics simulations will be shown along with advice on how to apply it in the general case. New version program summaryProgram title: Modular reweighting version 2 Catalogue identifier: AEJH_v2_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJH_v2_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: GNU General Public License, version 3 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 179 118 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 8 518 178 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++, Python 2.6+, Perl 5+ Computer: Any Operating system: Any RAM: 50-500 MB Supplementary material: An updated version of the original manuscript (Comput. Phys. Commun. 182 (2011) 2227) is available Classification: 4.13 Catalogue identifier of previous version: AEJH_v1_0 Journal reference of previous version: Comput. Phys. Commun. 182 (2011) 2227 Does the new version supersede the previous version?: Yes Nature of problem: While equilibrium reweighting is ubiquitous, there are no public programs available to perform the reweighting in the general case. Further, specific programs often suffer from many library dependencies and numerical instability. Solution method: This package is written in a modular format that allows for easy applicability of reweighting in the general case. Modules are small, numerically stable, and require minimal libraries. Reasons for new version: Some minor bugs, some upgrades needed, error analysis added. analyzeweight.py/analyzeweight.py2 has been replaced by “multihist.py”. This new program performs all the functions of its predecessor while being versatile enough to handle other types of histograms and probability analysis. “bootstrap.py” was added. This script performs basic bootstrap resampling allowing for error analysis of data. “avg_dev_distribution.py” was added. This program computes the averages and standard deviations of multiple distributions, making error analysis (e.g. from bootstrap resampling) easier to visualize. WRE.cpp was slightly modified purely for cosmetic reasons. The manual was updated for clarity and to reflect version updates. Examples were removed from the manual in favor of online tutorials (packaged examples remain). Examples were updated to reflect the new format. An additional example is included to demonstrate error analysis. Running time: Preprocessing scripts 1-5 minutes, WHAM engine <1 minute, postprocess script ∼1-5 minutes.

Obligation towards medical errors disclosure at a tertiary care hospital in Dubai, UAE

PubMed Central

Zaghloul, Ashraf Ahmad; Rahman, Syed Azizur; Abou El-Enein, Nagwa Younes

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The study aimed to identify healthcare providers’ obligation towards medical errors disclosure as well as to study the association between the severity of the medical error and the intention to disclose the error to the patients and their families. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study design was followed to identify the magnitude of disclosure among healthcare providers in different departments at a randomly selected tertiary care hospital in Dubai. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: The total sample size accounted for 106 respondents. Data were collected using a questionnaire composed of two sections namely; demographic variables of the respondents and a section which included variables relevant to medical error disclosure. RESULTS: Statistical analysis yielded significant association between the obligation to disclose medical errors with male healthcare providers (X2 = 5.1), and being a physician (X2 = 19.3). Obligation towards medical errors disclosure was significantly associated with those healthcare providers who had not committed any medical errors during the past year (X2 = 9.8), and any type of medical error regardless the cause, extent of harm (X2 = 8.7). Variables included in the binary logistic regression model were; status (Exp β (Physician) = 0.39, 95% CI 0.16–0.97), gender (Exp β (Male) = 4.81, 95% CI 1.84–12.54), and medical errors during the last year (Exp β (None) = 2.11, 95% CI 0.6–2.3). CONCLUSION: Education and training of physicians about disclosure conversations needs to start as early as medical school. Like the training in other competencies required of physicians, education in communicating about medical errors could help reduce physicians’ apprehension and make them more comfortable with disclosure conversations. PMID:27567766

Assessing colour-dependent occupation statistics inferred from galaxy group catalogues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Duncan; van den Bosch, Frank C.; Hearin, Andrew; Padmanabhan, Nikhil; Berlind, Andreas; Mo, H. J.; Tinker, Jeremy; Yang, Xiaohu

2015-09-01

We investigate the ability of current implementations of galaxy group finders to recover colour-dependent halo occupation statistics. To test the fidelity of group catalogue inferred statistics, we run three different group finders used in the literature over a mock that includes galaxy colours in a realistic manner. Overall, the resulting mock group catalogues are remarkably similar, and most colour-dependent statistics are recovered with reasonable accuracy. However, it is also clear that certain systematic errors arise as a consequence of correlated errors in group membership determination, central/satellite designation, and halo mass assignment. We introduce a new statistic, the halo transition probability (HTP), which captures the combined impact of all these errors. As a rule of thumb, errors tend to equalize the properties of distinct galaxy populations (i.e. red versus blue galaxies or centrals versus satellites), and to result in inferred occupation statistics that are more accurate for red galaxies than for blue galaxies. A statistic that is particularly poorly recovered from the group catalogues is the red fraction of central galaxies as a function of halo mass. Group finders do a good job in recovering galactic conformity, but also have a tendency to introduce weak conformity when none is present. We conclude that proper inference of colour-dependent statistics from group catalogues is best achieved using forward modelling (i.e. running group finders over mock data) or by implementing a correction scheme based on the HTP, as long as the latter is not too strongly model dependent.

A Measurement of Gravitational Lensing of the Cosmic Microwave Background by Galaxy Clusters Using Data from the South Pole Telescope

DOE PAGES

Baxter, E. J.; Keisler, R.; Dodelson, S.; ...

2015-06-22

Clusters of galaxies are expected to gravitationally lens the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and thereby generate a distinct signal in the CMB on arcminute scales. Measurements of this effect can be used to constrain the masses of galaxy clusters with CMB data alone. Here we present a measurement of lensing of the CMB by galaxy clusters using data from the South Pole Telescope (SPT). We also develop a maximum likelihood approach to extract the CMB cluster lensing signal and validate the method on mock data. We quantify the effects on our analysis of several potential sources of systematic error andmore » find that they generally act to reduce the best-fit cluster mass. It is estimated that this bias to lower cluster mass is roughly 0.85σ in units of the statistical error bar, although this estimate should be viewed as an upper limit. Furthermore, we apply our maximum likelihood technique to 513 clusters selected via their Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) signatures in SPT data, and rule out the null hypothesis of no lensing at 3.1σ. The lensing-derived mass estimate for the full cluster sample is consistent with that inferred from the SZ flux: M 200,lens = 0.83 +0.38 -0.37 M 200,SZ (68% C.L., statistical error only).« less

Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

2012-01-01

Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of Rating Scale Categories on Reliability and Fit Statistics of the Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale using Rasch Analysis.

PubMed

Daher, Aqil Mohammad; Ahmad, Syed Hassan; Winn, Than; Selamat, Mohd Ikhsan

2015-01-01

Few studies have employed the item response theory in examining reliability. We conducted this study to examine the effect of Rating Scale Categories (RSCs) on the reliability and fit statistics of the Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale, employing the Rasch model. The Malay Spiritual Well-Being Scale (SWBS) with the original six; three and four newly structured RSCs was distributed randomly among three different samples of 50 participants each. The mean age of respondents in the three samples ranged between 36 and 39 years old. The majority was female in all samples, and Islam was the most prevalent religion among the respondents. The predominating race was Malay, followed by Chinese and Indian. The original six RSCs indicated better targeting of 0.99 and smallest model error of 0.24. The Infit Mnsq (mean square) and Zstd (Z standard) of the six RSCs were "1.1"and "-0.1"respectively. The six RSCs achieved the highest person and item reliabilities of 0.86 and 0.85 respectively. These reliabilities yielded the highest person (2.46) and item (2.38) separation indices compared to other the RSCs. The person and item reliability and, to a lesser extent, the fit statistics, were better with the six RSCs compared to the four and three RSCs.

Proper assessment of the JFK assassination bullet lead evidence from metallurgical and statistical perspectives.

PubMed

Randich, Erik; Grant, Patrick M

2006-07-01

The bullet evidence in the JFK assassination investigation was reexamined from metallurgical and statistical standpoints. The questioned specimens are comprised of soft lead, possibly from full-metal-jacketed Mannlicher-Carcano (MC), 6.5-mm ammunition. During lead refining, contaminant elements are removed to specified levels for a desired alloy or composition. Microsegregation of trace and minor elements during lead casting and processing can account for the experimental variabilities measured in various evidentiary and comparison samples by laboratory analysts. Thus, elevated concentrations of antimony and copper at crystallographic grain boundaries, the widely varying sizes of grains in MC bullet lead, and the 5-60 mg bullet samples analyzed for assassination intelligence effectively resulted in operational sampling error for the analyses. This deficiency was not considered in the original data interpretation and resulted in an invalid conclusion in favor of the single-bullet theory of the assassination. Alternate statistical calculations, based on the historic analytical data, incorporating weighted averaging and propagation of experimental uncertainties also considerably weaken support for the single-bullet theory. In effect, this assessment of the material composition of the lead specimens from the assassination concludes that the extant evidence is consistent with any number between two and five rounds fired in Dealey Plaza during the shooting.

Proper Assessment of the JFK Assassination Bullet Lead Evidence from Metallurgical and Statistical Perspectives

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randich, E; Grant, P M

2006-08-29

The bullet evidence in the JFK assassination investigation was reexamined from metallurgical and statistical standpoints. The questioned specimens are comprised of soft lead, possibly from full-metal-jacketed Mannlicher-Carcano, 6.5-mm ammunition. During lead refining, contaminant elements are removed to specified levels for a desired alloy or composition. Microsegregation of trace and minor elements during lead casting and processing can account for the experimental variabilities measured in various evidentiary and comparison samples by laboratory analysts. Thus, elevated concentrations of antimony and copper at crystallographic grain boundaries, the widely varying sizes of grains in Mannlicher-Carcano bullet lead, and the 5-60 mg bullet samples analyzedmore » for assassination intelligence effectively resulted in operational sampling error for the analyses. This deficiency was not considered in the original data interpretation and resulted in an invalid conclusion in favor of the single-bullet theory of the assassination. Alternate statistical calculations, based on the historic analytical data, incorporating weighted averaging and propagation of experimental uncertainties also considerably weaken support for the single-bullet theory. In effect, this assessment of the material composition of the lead specimens from the assassination concludes that the extant evidence is consistent with any number between two and five rounds fired in Dealey Plaza during the shooting.« less

[Evaluation of the quality of Anales Españoles de Pediatría versus Medicina Clínica].

PubMed

Bonillo Perales, A

2002-08-01

To compare the scientific methodology and quality of articles published in Anales Españoles de Pediatría and Medicina Clínica. A stratified and randomized selection of 40 original articles published in 2001 in Anales Españoles de Pediatría and Medicina Clínica was made. Methodological errors in the critical analysis of original articles (21 items), epidemiological design, sample size, statistical complexity and levels of scientific evidence in both journals were compared using the chi-squared and/or Student's t-test. No differences were found between Anales Españoles de Pediatría and Medicina Clínica in the critical evaluation of original articles (p > 0.2). In original articles published in Anales Españoles de Pediatría, the designs were of lower scientific evidence (a lower proportion of clinical trials, cohort and case-control studies) (17.5 vs 42.5 %, p 0.05), sample sizes were smaller (p 0.003) and there was less statistical complexity in the results section (p 0.03). To improve the scientific quality of Anales Españoles de Pediatría, improved study designs, larger sample sizes and greater statistical complexity are required in its articles.

Improving the power of clinical trials of rheumatoid arthritis by using data on continuous scales when analysing response rates: an application of the augmented binary method

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Martin

2016-01-01

Objective. In clinical trials of RA, it is common to assess effectiveness using end points based upon dichotomized continuous measures of disease activity, which classify patients as responders or non-responders. Although dichotomization generally loses statistical power, there are good clinical reasons to use these end points; for example, to allow for patients receiving rescue therapy to be assigned as non-responders. We adopt a statistical technique called the augmented binary method to make better use of the information provided by these continuous measures and account for how close patients were to being responders. Methods. We adapted the augmented binary method for use in RA clinical trials. We used a previously published randomized controlled trial (Oral SyK Inhibition in Rheumatoid Arthritis-1) to assess its performance in comparison to a standard method treating patients purely as responders or non-responders. The power and error rate were investigated by sampling from this study. Results. The augmented binary method reached similar conclusions to standard analysis methods but was able to estimate the difference in response rates to a higher degree of precision. Results suggested that CI widths for ACR responder end points could be reduced by at least 15%, which could equate to reducing the sample size of a study by 29% to achieve the same statistical power. For other end points, the gain was even higher. Type I error rates were not inflated. Conclusion. The augmented binary method shows considerable promise for RA trials, making more efficient use of patient data whilst still reporting outcomes in terms of recognized response end points. PMID:27338084

Inappropriate use of standard error of the mean when reporting variability of study samples: a critical evaluation of four selected journals of obstetrics and gynecology.

PubMed

Ko, Wen-Ru; Hung, Wei-Te; Chang, Hui-Chin; Lin, Long-Yau

2014-03-01

The study was designed to investigate the frequency of misusing standard error of the mean (SEM) in place of standard deviation (SD) to describe study samples in four selected journals published in 2011. Citation counts of articles and the relationship between the misuse rate and impact factor, immediacy index, or cited half-life were also evaluated. All original articles in the four selected journals published in 2011 were searched for descriptive statistics reporting with either mean ± SD or mean ± SEM. The impact factor, immediacy index, and cited half-life of the journals were gathered from Journal Citation Reports Science edition 2011. Scopus was used to search for citations of individual articles. The difference in citation counts between the SD group and SEM group was tested by the Mann-Whitney U test. The relationship between the misuse rate and impact factor, immediacy index, or cited half-life was also evaluated. The frequency of inappropriate reporting of SEM was 13.60% for all four journals. For individual journals, the misuse rate was from 2.9% in Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica to 22.68% in American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology. Articles using SEM were cited more frequently than those using SD (p = 0.025). An approximate positive correlation between the misuse rate and cited half-life was observed. Inappropriate reporting of SEM is common in medical journals. Authors of biomedical papers should be responsible for maintaining an integrated statistical presentation because valuable articles are in danger of being wasted through the misuse of statistics. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Real-Time Identification of Wheel Terrain Interaction Models for Enhanced Autonomous Vehicle Mobility

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-04-24

tim at io n Er ro r ( cm ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 Color Statistics Angelova...Color_Statistics_Error) / Average_Slip_Error Position Estimation Error: Global Pose Po si tio n Es tim at io n Er ro r ( cm ) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Color...get some kind of clearance for releasing pose and odometry data) collected at the following sites – Taylor, Gascola, Somerset, Fort Bliss and

Linear and Order Statistics Combiners for Pattern Classification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tumer, Kagan; Ghosh, Joydeep; Lau, Sonie (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Several researchers have experimentally shown that substantial improvements can be obtained in difficult pattern recognition problems by combining or integrating the outputs of multiple classifiers. This chapter provides an analytical framework to quantify the improvements in classification results due to combining. The results apply to both linear combiners and order statistics combiners. We first show that to a first order approximation, the error rate obtained over and above the Bayes error rate, is directly proportional to the variance of the actual decision boundaries around the Bayes optimum boundary. Combining classifiers in output space reduces this variance, and hence reduces the 'added' error. If N unbiased classifiers are combined by simple averaging. the added error rate can be reduced by a factor of N if the individual errors in approximating the decision boundaries are uncorrelated. Expressions are then derived for linear combiners which are biased or correlated, and the effect of output correlations on ensemble performance is quantified. For order statistics based non-linear combiners, we derive expressions that indicate how much the median, the maximum and in general the i-th order statistic can improve classifier performance. The analysis presented here facilitates the understanding of the relationships among error rates, classifier boundary distributions, and combining in output space. Experimental results on several public domain data sets are provided to illustrate the benefits of combining and to support the analytical results.

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Specification of Error Statistics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stajner, Ivanka; Riishojgaard, Lars Peter; Rood, Richard B.

2000-01-01

A global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or (SBUV/2) partial ozone profile observations are assimilated. The assimilation, into an off-line ozone transport model, is done using the global Physical-space Statistical Analysis Scheme (PSAS). This system became operational in December 1999. A detailed description of the statistical analysis scheme, and in particular, the forecast and observation error covariance models is given. A new global anisotropic horizontal forecast error correlation model accounts for a varying distribution of observations with latitude. Correlations are largest in the zonal direction in the tropics where data is sparse. Forecast error variance model is proportional to the ozone field. The forecast error covariance parameters were determined by maximum likelihood estimation. The error covariance models are validated using x squared statistics. The analyzed ozone fields in the winter 1992 are validated against independent observations from ozone sondes and HALOE. There is better than 10% agreement between mean Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and analysis fields between 70 and 0.2 hPa. The global root-mean-square (RMS) difference between TOMS observed and forecast values is less than 4%. The global RMS difference between SBUV observed and analyzed ozone between 50 and 3 hPa is less than 15%.

Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) scores generated from the MMPI-2 and MMPI-2-RF test booklets: internal structure comparability in a sample of criminal defendants.

PubMed

Tarescavage, Anthony M; Alosco, Michael L; Ben-Porath, Yossef S; Wood, Arcangela; Luna-Jones, Lynn

2015-04-01

We investigated the internal structure comparability of Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) scores derived from the MMPI-2 and MMPI-2-RF booklets in a sample of 320 criminal defendants (229 males and 54 females). After exclusion of invalid protocols, the final sample consisted of 96 defendants who were administered the MMPI-2-RF booklet and 83 who completed the MMPI-2. No statistically significant differences in MMPI-2-RF invalidity rates were observed between the two forms. Individuals in the final sample who completed the MMPI-2-RF did not statistically differ on demographics or referral question from those who were administered the MMPI-2 booklet. Independent t tests showed no statistically significant differences between MMPI-2-RF scores generated with the MMPI-2 and MMPI-2-RF booklets on the test's substantive scales. Statistically significant small differences were observed on the revised Variable Response Inconsistency (VRIN-r) and True Response Inconsistency (TRIN-r) scales. Cronbach's alpha and standard errors of measurement were approximately equal between the booklets for all MMPI-2-RF scales. Finally, MMPI-2-RF intercorrelations produced from the two forms yielded mostly small and a few medium differences, indicating that discriminant validity and test structure are maintained. Overall, our findings reflect the internal structure comparability of MMPI-2-RF scale scores generated from MMPI-2 and MMPI-2-RF booklets. Implications of these results and limitations of these findings are discussed. © The Author(s) 2014.

Systematic review of statistical approaches to quantify, or correct for, measurement error in a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology.

PubMed

Bennett, Derrick A; Landry, Denise; Little, Julian; Minelli, Cosetta

2017-09-19

Several statistical approaches have been proposed to assess and correct for exposure measurement error. We aimed to provide a critical overview of the most common approaches used in nutritional epidemiology. MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS and CINAHL were searched for reports published in English up to May 2016 in order to ascertain studies that described methods aimed to quantify and/or correct for measurement error for a continuous exposure in nutritional epidemiology using a calibration study. We identified 126 studies, 43 of which described statistical methods and 83 that applied any of these methods to a real dataset. The statistical approaches in the eligible studies were grouped into: a) approaches to quantify the relationship between different dietary assessment instruments and "true intake", which were mostly based on correlation analysis and the method of triads; b) approaches to adjust point and interval estimates of diet-disease associations for measurement error, mostly based on regression calibration analysis and its extensions. Two approaches (multiple imputation and moment reconstruction) were identified that can deal with differential measurement error. For regression calibration, the most common approach to correct for measurement error used in nutritional epidemiology, it is crucial to ensure that its assumptions and requirements are fully met. Analyses that investigate the impact of departures from the classical measurement error model on regression calibration estimates can be helpful to researchers in interpreting their findings. With regard to the possible use of alternative methods when regression calibration is not appropriate, the choice of method should depend on the measurement error model assumed, the availability of suitable calibration study data and the potential for bias due to violation of the classical measurement error model assumptions. On the basis of this review, we provide some practical advice for the use of methods to assess and adjust for measurement error in nutritional epidemiology.

Error tolerance analysis of wave diagnostic based on coherent modulation imaging in high power laser system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, Xingchen; Liu, Cheng; Zhu, Jianqiang

2018-02-01

Coherent modulation imaging providing fast convergence speed and high resolution with single diffraction pattern is a promising technique to satisfy the urgent demands for on-line multiple parameter diagnostics with single setup in high power laser facilities (HPLF). However, the influence of noise on the final calculated parameters concerned has not been investigated yet. According to a series of simulations with twenty different sampling beams generated based on the practical parameters and performance of HPLF, the quantitative analysis based on statistical results was first investigated after considering five different error sources. We found the background noise of detector and high quantization error will seriously affect the final accuracy and different parameters have different sensitivity to different noise sources. The simulation results and the corresponding analysis provide the potential directions to further improve the final accuracy of parameter diagnostics which is critically important to its formal applications in the daily routines of HPLF.

Applications and Comparisons of Four Time Series Models in Epidemiological Surveillance Data

PubMed Central

Young, Alistair A.; Li, Xiaosong

2014-01-01

Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases. PMID:24505382

WASP (Write a Scientific Paper) using Excel - 6: Standard error and confidence interval.

PubMed

Grech, Victor

2018-03-01

The calculation of descriptive statistics includes the calculation of standard error and confidence interval, an inevitable component of data analysis in inferential statistics. This paper provides pointers as to how to do this in Microsoft Excel™. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Statistical Analysis Experiment for Freshman Chemistry Lab.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salzsieder, John C.

1995-01-01

Describes a laboratory experiment dissolving zinc from galvanized nails in which data can be gathered very quickly for statistical analysis. The data have sufficient significant figures and the experiment yields a nice distribution of random errors. Freshman students can gain an appreciation of the relationships between random error, number of…