Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 1. Use of hydrogeologic information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

A new method is developed to efficiently compute exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output (or other function of parameters) g(β) derived from a groundwater flow model. The method is general in that parameter uncertainty can be specified by any statistical distribution having a log probability density function (log pdf) that can be expanded in a Taylor series. However, for this study parameter uncertainty is specified by a statistical multivariate beta distribution that incorporates hydrogeologic information in the form of the investigator's best estimates of parameters and a grouping of random variables representing possible parameter values so that each group is defined by maximum and minimum bounds and an ordering according to increasing value. The new method forms the confidence intervals from maximum and minimum limits of g(β) on a contour of a linear combination of (1) the quadratic form for the parameters used by Cooley and Vecchia (1987) and (2) the log pdf for the multivariate beta distribution. Three example problems are used to compare characteristics of the confidence intervals for hydraulic head obtained using different weights for the linear combination. Different weights generally produced similar confidence intervals, whereas the method of Cooley and Vecchia (1987) often produced much larger confidence intervals.

The thresholds for statistical and clinical significance – a five-step procedure for evaluation of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Thresholds for statistical significance are insufficiently demonstrated by 95% confidence intervals or P-values when assessing results from randomised clinical trials. First, a P-value only shows the probability of getting a result assuming that the null hypothesis is true and does not reflect the probability of getting a result assuming an alternative hypothesis to the null hypothesis is true. Second, a confidence interval or a P-value showing significance may be caused by multiplicity. Third, statistical significance does not necessarily result in clinical significance. Therefore, assessment of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials deserves more rigour in order to become more valid. Methods Several methodologies for assessing the statistical and clinical significance of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials were considered. Balancing simplicity and comprehensiveness, a simple five-step procedure was developed. Results For a more valid assessment of results from a randomised clinical trial we propose the following five-steps: (1) report the confidence intervals and the exact P-values; (2) report Bayes factor for the primary outcome, being the ratio of the probability that a given trial result is compatible with a ‘null’ effect (corresponding to the P-value) divided by the probability that the trial result is compatible with the intervention effect hypothesised in the sample size calculation; (3) adjust the confidence intervals and the statistical significance threshold if the trial is stopped early or if interim analyses have been conducted; (4) adjust the confidence intervals and the P-values for multiplicity due to number of outcome comparisons; and (5) assess clinical significance of the trial results. Conclusions If the proposed five-step procedure is followed, this may increase the validity of assessments of intervention effects in randomised clinical trials. PMID:24588900

Knowledge level of effect size statistics, confidence intervals and meta-analysis in Spanish academic psychologists.

PubMed

Badenes-Ribera, Laura; Frias-Navarro, Dolores; Pascual-Soler, Marcos; Monterde-I-Bort, Héctor

2016-11-01

The statistical reform movement and the American Psychological Association (APA) defend the use of estimators of the effect size and its confidence intervals, as well as the interpretation of the clinical significance of the findings. A survey was conducted in which academic psychologists were asked about their behavior in designing and carrying out their studies. The sample was composed of 472 participants (45.8% men). The mean number of years as a university professor was 13.56 years (SD= 9.27). The use of effect-size estimators is becoming generalized, as well as the consideration of meta-analytic studies. However, several inadequate practices still persist. A traditional model of methodological behavior based on statistical significance tests is maintained, based on the predominance of Cohen’s d and the unadjusted R2/η2, which are not immune to outliers or departure from normality and the violations of statistical assumptions, and the under-reporting of confidence intervals of effect-size statistics. The paper concludes with recommendations for improving statistical practice.

Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salamat, Mona; Zare, Mehdi; Holschneider, Matthias; Zöller, Gert

2017-03-01

The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m_max has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m_max is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event,the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4):1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m_max is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating m_max from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible.

More accurate, calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals for correlating two autocorrelated climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olafsdottir, Kristin B.; Mudelsee, Manfred

2013-04-01

Estimation of the Pearson's correlation coefficient between two time series to evaluate the influences of one time depended variable on another is one of the most often used statistical method in climate sciences. Various methods are used to estimate confidence interval to support the correlation point estimate. Many of them make strong mathematical assumptions regarding distributional shape and serial correlation, which are rarely met. More robust statistical methods are needed to increase the accuracy of the confidence intervals. Bootstrap confidence intervals are estimated in the Fortran 90 program PearsonT (Mudelsee, 2003), where the main intention was to get an accurate confidence interval for correlation coefficient between two time series by taking the serial dependence of the process that generated the data into account. However, Monte Carlo experiments show that the coverage accuracy for smaller data sizes can be improved. Here we adapt the PearsonT program into a new version called PearsonT3, by calibrating the confidence interval to increase the coverage accuracy. Calibration is a bootstrap resampling technique, which basically performs a second bootstrap loop or resamples from the bootstrap resamples. It offers, like the non-calibrated bootstrap confidence intervals, robustness against the data distribution. Pairwise moving block bootstrap is used to preserve the serial correlation of both time series. The calibration is applied to standard error based bootstrap Student's t confidence intervals. The performances of the calibrated confidence intervals are examined with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared with the performances of confidence intervals without calibration, that is, PearsonT. The coverage accuracy is evidently better for the calibrated confidence intervals where the coverage error is acceptably small (i.e., within a few percentage points) already for data sizes as small as 20. One form of climate time series is output from numerical models which simulate the climate system. The method is applied to model data from the high resolution ocean model, INALT01 where the relationship between the Agulhas Leakage and the North Brazil Current is evaluated. Preliminary results show significant correlation between the two variables when there is 10 year lag between them, which is more or less the time that takes the Agulhas Leakage water to reach the North Brazil Current. Mudelsee, M., 2003. Estimating Pearson's correlation coefficient with bootstrap confidence interval from serially dependent time series. Mathematical Geology 35, 651-665.

Confidence intervals for distinguishing ordinal and disordinal interactions in multiple regression.

PubMed

Lee, Sunbok; Lei, Man-Kit; Brody, Gene H

2015-06-01

Distinguishing between ordinal and disordinal interaction in multiple regression is useful in testing many interesting theoretical hypotheses. Because the distinction is made based on the location of a crossover point of 2 simple regression lines, confidence intervals of the crossover point can be used to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interactions. This study examined 2 factors that need to be considered in constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point: (a) the assumption about the sampling distribution of the crossover point, and (b) the possibility of abnormally wide confidence intervals for the crossover point. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to compare 6 different methods for constructing confidence intervals of the crossover point in terms of the coverage rate, the proportion of true values that fall to the left or right of the confidence intervals, and the average width of the confidence intervals. The methods include the reparameterization, delta, Fieller, basic bootstrap, percentile bootstrap, and bias-corrected accelerated bootstrap methods. The results of our Monte Carlo simulation study suggest that statistical inference using confidence intervals to distinguish ordinal and disordinal interaction requires sample sizes more than 500 to be able to provide sufficiently narrow confidence intervals to identify the location of the crossover point. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Confidence interval or p-value?: part 4 of a series on evaluation of scientific publications.

PubMed

du Prel, Jean-Baptist; Hommel, Gerhard; Röhrig, Bernd; Blettner, Maria

2009-05-01

An understanding of p-values and confidence intervals is necessary for the evaluation of scientific articles. This article will inform the reader of the meaning and interpretation of these two statistical concepts. The uses of these two statistical concepts and the differences between them are discussed on the basis of a selective literature search concerning the methods employed in scientific articles. P-values in scientific studies are used to determine whether a null hypothesis formulated before the performance of the study is to be accepted or rejected. In exploratory studies, p-values enable the recognition of any statistically noteworthy findings. Confidence intervals provide information about a range in which the true value lies with a certain degree of probability, as well as about the direction and strength of the demonstrated effect. This enables conclusions to be drawn about the statistical plausibility and clinical relevance of the study findings. It is often useful for both statistical measures to be reported in scientific articles, because they provide complementary types of information.

Methods for calculating confidence and credible intervals for the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Meta-regression is becoming increasingly used to model study level covariate effects. However this type of statistical analysis presents many difficulties and challenges. Here two methods for calculating confidence intervals for the magnitude of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regression models are developed. A further suggestion for calculating credible intervals using informative prior distributions for the residual between-study variance is presented. Methods Two recently proposed and, under the assumptions of the random effects model, exact methods for constructing confidence intervals for the between-study variance in random effects meta-analyses are extended to the meta-regression setting. The use of Generalised Cochran heterogeneity statistics is extended to the meta-regression setting and a Newton-Raphson procedure is developed to implement the Q profile method for meta-analysis and meta-regression. WinBUGS is used to implement informative priors for the residual between-study variance in the context of Bayesian meta-regressions. Results Results are obtained for two contrasting examples, where the first example involves a binary covariate and the second involves a continuous covariate. Intervals for the residual between-study variance are wide for both examples. Conclusions Statistical methods, and R computer software, are available to compute exact confidence intervals for the residual between-study variance under the random effects model for meta-regression. These frequentist methods are almost as easily implemented as their established counterparts for meta-analysis. Bayesian meta-regressions are also easily performed by analysts who are comfortable using WinBUGS. Estimates of the residual between-study variance in random effects meta-regressions should be routinely reported and accompanied by some measure of their uncertainty. Confidence and/or credible intervals are well-suited to this purpose. PMID:25196829

Confidence Intervals from Realizations of Simulated Nuclear Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Younes, W.; Ratkiewicz, A.; Ressler, J. J.

2017-09-28

Various statistical techniques are discussed that can be used to assign a level of confidence in the prediction of models that depend on input data with known uncertainties and correlations. The particular techniques reviewed in this paper are: 1) random realizations of the input data using Monte-Carlo methods, 2) the construction of confidence intervals to assess the reliability of model predictions, and 3) resampling techniques to impose statistical constraints on the input data based on additional information. These techniques are illustrated with a calculation of the keff value, based on the 235U(n, f) and 239Pu (n, f) cross sections.

Common pitfalls in statistical analysis: “P” values, statistical significance and confidence intervals

PubMed Central

Ranganathan, Priya; Pramesh, C. S.; Buyse, Marc

2015-01-01

In the second part of a series on pitfalls in statistical analysis, we look at various ways in which a statistically significant study result can be expressed. We debunk some of the myths regarding the ‘P’ value, explain the importance of ‘confidence intervals’ and clarify the importance of including both values in a paper PMID:25878958

Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grabaskas, David; Bucknor, Matthew; Brunett, Acacia

2015-04-26

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it ismore » difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.« less

Estimating Standardized Linear Contrasts of Means with Desired Precision

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.

2009-01-01

L. Wilkinson and the Task Force on Statistical Inference (1999) recommended reporting confidence intervals for measures of effect sizes. If the sample size is too small, the confidence interval may be too wide to provide meaningful information. Recently, K. Kelley and J. R. Rausch (2006) used an iterative approach to computer-generate tables of…

Accuracy assessment of percent canopy cover, cover type, and size class

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; S. Bain; R. C. Czaplewski

2003-01-01

Truth for vegetation cover percent and type is obtained from very large-scale photography (VLSP), stand structure as measured by size classes, and vegetation types from a combination of VLSP and ground sampling. We recommend using the Kappa statistic with bootstrap confidence intervals for overall accuracy, and similarly bootstrap confidence intervals for percent...

Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Compliance and Clinical Significance in the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgaard, Eric C.; Fowler, Robert L.

2010-01-01

Objective: In 2005, the "Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology" ("JCCP") became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest…

SIMREL: Software for Coefficient Alpha and Its Confidence Intervals with Monte Carlo Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yurdugul, Halil

2009-01-01

This article describes SIMREL, a software program designed for the simulation of alpha coefficients and the estimation of its confidence intervals. SIMREL runs on two alternatives. In the first one, if SIMREL is run for a single data file, it performs descriptive statistics, principal components analysis, and variance analysis of the item scores…

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2017-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful…

A comparison of statistical methods for evaluating matching performance of a biometric identification device: a preliminary report

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuckers, Michael E.; Hawley, Anne; Livingstone, Katie; Mramba, Nona

2004-08-01

Confidence intervals are an important way to assess and estimate a parameter. In the case of biometric identification devices, several approaches to confidence intervals for an error rate have been proposed. Here we evaluate six of these methods. To complete this evaluation, we simulate data from a wide variety of parameter values. This data are simulated via a correlated binary distribution. We then determine how well these methods do at what they say they do: capturing the parameter inside the confidence interval. In addition, the average widths of the various confidence intervals are recorded for each set of parameters. The complete results of this simulation are presented graphically for easy comparison. We conclude by making a recommendation regarding which method performs best.

Test Statistics and Confidence Intervals to Establish Noninferiority between Treatments with Ordinal Categorical Data.

PubMed

Zhang, Fanghong; Miyaoka, Etsuo; Huang, Fuping; Tanaka, Yutaka

2015-01-01

The problem for establishing noninferiority is discussed between a new treatment and a standard (control) treatment with ordinal categorical data. A measure of treatment effect is used and a method of specifying noninferiority margin for the measure is provided. Two Z-type test statistics are proposed where the estimation of variance is constructed under the shifted null hypothesis using U-statistics. Furthermore, the confidence interval and the sample size formula are given based on the proposed test statistics. The proposed procedure is applied to a dataset from a clinical trial. A simulation study is conducted to compare the performance of the proposed test statistics with that of the existing ones, and the results show that the proposed test statistics are better in terms of the deviation from nominal level and the power.

Heritability of and mortality prediction with a longevity phenotype: the healthy aging index.

PubMed

Sanders, Jason L; Minster, Ryan L; Barmada, M Michael; Matteini, Amy M; Boudreau, Robert M; Christensen, Kaare; Mayeux, Richard; Borecki, Ingrid B; Zhang, Qunyuan; Perls, Thomas; Newman, Anne B

2014-04-01

Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI's association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component-based family analysis using a polygenic model. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7-10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0-2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans.

Heritability of and Mortality Prediction With a Longevity Phenotype: The Healthy Aging Index

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background. Longevity-associated genes may modulate risk for age-related diseases and survival. The Healthy Aging Index (HAI) may be a subphenotype of longevity, which can be constructed in many studies for genetic analysis. We investigated the HAI’s association with survival in the Cardiovascular Health Study and heritability in the Long Life Family Study. Methods. The HAI includes systolic blood pressure, pulmonary vital capacity, creatinine, fasting glucose, and Modified Mini-Mental Status Examination score, each scored 0, 1, or 2 using approximate tertiles and summed from 0 (healthy) to 10 (unhealthy). In Cardiovascular Health Study, the association with mortality and accuracy predicting death were determined with Cox proportional hazards analysis and c-statistics, respectively. In Long Life Family Study, heritability was determined with a variance component–based family analysis using a polygenic model. Results. Cardiovascular Health Study participants with unhealthier index scores (7–10) had 2.62-fold (95% confidence interval: 2.22, 3.10) greater mortality than participants with healthier scores (0–2). The HAI alone predicted death moderately well (c-statistic = 0.643, 95% confidence interval: 0.626, 0.661, p < .0001) and slightly worse than age alone (c-statistic = 0.700, 95% confidence interval: 0.684, 0.717, p < .0001; p < .0001 for comparison of c-statistics). Prediction increased significantly with adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, and clinical comorbidities (c-statistic = 0.780, 95% confidence interval: 0.765, 0.794, p < .0001). In Long Life Family Study, the heritability of the HAI was 0.295 (p < .0001) overall, 0.387 (p < .0001) in probands, and 0.238 (p = .0004) in offspring. Conclusion. The HAI should be investigated further as a candidate phenotype for uncovering longevity-associated genes in humans. PMID:23913930

Four applications of permutation methods to testing a single-mediator model.

PubMed

Taylor, Aaron B; MacKinnon, David P

2012-09-01

Four applications of permutation tests to the single-mediator model are described and evaluated in this study. Permutation tests work by rearranging data in many possible ways in order to estimate the sampling distribution for the test statistic. The four applications to mediation evaluated here are the permutation test of ab, the permutation joint significance test, and the noniterative and iterative permutation confidence intervals for ab. A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to compare these four tests with the four best available tests for mediation found in previous research: the joint significance test, the distribution of the product test, and the percentile and bias-corrected bootstrap tests. We compared the different methods on Type I error, power, and confidence interval coverage. The noniterative permutation confidence interval for ab was the best performer among the new methods. It successfully controlled Type I error, had power nearly as good as the most powerful existing methods, and had better coverage than any existing method. The iterative permutation confidence interval for ab had lower power than do some existing methods, but it performed better than any other method in terms of coverage. The permutation confidence interval methods are recommended when estimating a confidence interval is a primary concern. SPSS and SAS macros that estimate these confidence intervals are provided.

Statistics Refresher for Molecular Imaging Technologists, Part 2: Accuracy of Interpretation, Significance, and Variance.

PubMed

Farrell, Mary Beth

2018-06-01

This article is the second part of a continuing education series reviewing basic statistics that nuclear medicine and molecular imaging technologists should understand. In this article, the statistics for evaluating interpretation accuracy, significance, and variance are discussed. Throughout the article, actual statistics are pulled from the published literature. We begin by explaining 2 methods for quantifying interpretive accuracy: interreader and intrareader reliability. Agreement among readers can be expressed simply as a percentage. However, the Cohen κ-statistic is a more robust measure of agreement that accounts for chance. The higher the κ-statistic is, the higher is the agreement between readers. When 3 or more readers are being compared, the Fleiss κ-statistic is used. Significance testing determines whether the difference between 2 conditions or interventions is meaningful. Statistical significance is usually expressed using a number called a probability ( P ) value. Calculation of P value is beyond the scope of this review. However, knowing how to interpret P values is important for understanding the scientific literature. Generally, a P value of less than 0.05 is considered significant and indicates that the results of the experiment are due to more than just chance. Variance, standard deviation (SD), confidence interval, and standard error (SE) explain the dispersion of data around a mean of a sample drawn from a population. SD is commonly reported in the literature. A small SD indicates that there is not much variation in the sample data. Many biologic measurements fall into what is referred to as a normal distribution taking the shape of a bell curve. In a normal distribution, 68% of the data will fall within 1 SD, 95% will fall within 2 SDs, and 99.7% will fall within 3 SDs. Confidence interval defines the range of possible values within which the population parameter is likely to lie and gives an idea of the precision of the statistic being measured. A wide confidence interval indicates that if the experiment were repeated multiple times on other samples, the measured statistic would lie within a wide range of possibilities. The confidence interval relies on the SE. © 2018 by the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging.

Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cohn, Timothy A.; Lane, William L.; Stedinger, Jery R.

2001-01-01

Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient “weighting” procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed‐form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA‐based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood‐quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25‐ to 100‐year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tully, Phillip J; Cosh, Suzanne M

2013-12-01

Generalized anxiety disorder prevalence and comorbidity with depression in coronary heart disease patients remain unquantified. Systematic searching of Medline, Embase, SCOPUS and PsycINFO databases revealed 1025 unique citations. Aggregate generalized anxiety disorder prevalence (12 studies, N = 3485) was 10.94 per cent (95% confidence interval: 7.8-13.99) and 13.52 per cent (95% confidence interval: 8.39-18.66) employing Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition criteria (random effects). Lifetime generalized anxiety disorder prevalence was 25.80 per cent (95% confidence interval: 20.84-30.77). In seven studies, modest correlation was evident between generalized anxiety disorder and depression, Fisher's Z = .30 (95% confidence interval: .19-.42), suggesting that each psychiatric disorder is best conceptualized as contributing unique variance to coronary heart disease prognosis.

Descriptive Statistics: Reporting the Answers to the 5 Basic Questions of Who, What, Why, When, Where, and a Sixth, So What?

PubMed

Vetter, Thomas R

2017-11-01

Descriptive statistics are specific methods basically used to calculate, describe, and summarize collected research data in a logical, meaningful, and efficient way. Descriptive statistics are reported numerically in the manuscript text and/or in its tables, or graphically in its figures. This basic statistical tutorial discusses a series of fundamental concepts about descriptive statistics and their reporting. The mean, median, and mode are 3 measures of the center or central tendency of a set of data. In addition to a measure of its central tendency (mean, median, or mode), another important characteristic of a research data set is its variability or dispersion (ie, spread). In simplest terms, variability is how much the individual recorded scores or observed values differ from one another. The range, standard deviation, and interquartile range are 3 measures of variability or dispersion. The standard deviation is typically reported for a mean, and the interquartile range for a median. Testing for statistical significance, along with calculating the observed treatment effect (or the strength of the association between an exposure and an outcome), and generating a corresponding confidence interval are 3 tools commonly used by researchers (and their collaborating biostatistician or epidemiologist) to validly make inferences and more generalized conclusions from their collected data and descriptive statistics. A number of journals, including Anesthesia & Analgesia, strongly encourage or require the reporting of pertinent confidence intervals. A confidence interval can be calculated for virtually any variable or outcome measure in an experimental, quasi-experimental, or observational research study design. Generally speaking, in a clinical trial, the confidence interval is the range of values within which the true treatment effect in the population likely resides. In an observational study, the confidence interval is the range of values within which the true strength of the association between the exposure and the outcome (eg, the risk ratio or odds ratio) in the population likely resides. There are many possible ways to graphically display or illustrate different types of data. While there is often latitude as to the choice of format, ultimately, the simplest and most comprehensible format is preferred. Common examples include a histogram, bar chart, line chart or line graph, pie chart, scatterplot, and box-and-whisker plot. Valid and reliable descriptive statistics can answer basic yet important questions about a research data set, namely: "Who, What, Why, When, Where, How, How Much?"

On the log-normality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: implications for extreme-event probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Riley, Pete

2015-01-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to −Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, −Dst≥850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42,2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a −Dst≥880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490,1187] nT.

Risk factors for low birth weight according to the multiple logistic regression model. A retrospective cohort study in José María Morelos municipality, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

PubMed

Franco Monsreal, José; Tun Cobos, Miriam Del Ruby; Hernández Gómez, José Ricardo; Serralta Peraza, Lidia Esther Del Socorro

2018-01-17

Low birth weight has been an enigma for science over time. There have been many researches on its causes and its effects. Low birth weight is an indicator that predicts the probability of a child surviving. In fact, there is an exponential relationship between weight deficit, gestational age, and perinatal mortality. Multiple logistic regression is one of the most expressive and versatile statistical instruments available for the analysis of data in both clinical and epidemiology settings, as well as in public health. To assess in a multivariate fashion the importance of 17 independent variables in low birth weight (dependent variable) of children born in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Analytical observational epidemiological cohort study with retrospective temporality. Births that met the inclusion criteria occurred in the "Hospital Integral Jose Maria Morelos" of the Ministry of Health corresponding to the Maya municipality of Jose Maria Morelos during the period from August 1, 2014 to July 31, 2015. The total number of newborns recorded was 1,147; 84 of which (7.32%) had low birth weight. To estimate the independent association between the explanatory variables (potential risk factors) and the response variable, a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using the IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software. In ascending numerical order values of odds ratio > 1 indicated the positive contribution of explanatory variables or possible risk factors: "unmarried" marital status (1.076, 95% confidence interval: 0.550 to 2.104); age at menarche ≤ 12 years (1.08, 95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 1.84); history of abortion(s) (1.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.44 to 2.93); maternal weight < 50 kg (1.51, 95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 2.76); number of prenatal consultations ≤ 5 (1.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.94 to 3.66); maternal age ≥ 36 years (3.5, 95% confidence interval: 0.40 to 30.47); maternal age ≤ 19 years (3.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.43 to 29.87); number of deliveries = 1 (3.86, 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 44.85); personal pathological history (4.78, 95% confidence interval: 2.16 to 10.59); pathological obstetric history (5.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.66 to 15.18); maternal height < 150 cm (5.16, 95% confidence interval: 3.08 to 8.65); number of births ≥ 5 (5.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.51 to 69.99); and smoking (15.63, 95% confidence interval: 1.07 to 227.97). Four of the independent variables (personal pathological history, obstetric pathological history, maternal stature <150 centimeters and smoking) showed a significant positive contribution, thus they can be considered as clear risk factors for low birth weight. The use of the logistic regression model in the Mayan municipality of José María Morelos, will allow estimating the probability of low birth weight for each pregnant woman in the future, which will be useful for the health authorities of the region.

Crash Lethality Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-06

Statistical Data ........................................................................................... 45 31 Parametric Model for Rotor Wing Debris...Area .............................................................. 46 32 Skid Distance Statistical Data...results. The curve that related the BC value to the probability of skull fracture resulted in a tight confidence interval and a two tailed statistical p

Estimating statistical uncertainty of Monte Carlo efficiency-gain in the context of a correlated sampling Monte Carlo code for brachytherapy treatment planning with non-normal dose distribution.

PubMed

Mukhopadhyay, Nitai D; Sampson, Andrew J; Deniz, Daniel; Alm Carlsson, Gudrun; Williamson, Jeffrey; Malusek, Alexandr

2012-01-01

Correlated sampling Monte Carlo methods can shorten computing times in brachytherapy treatment planning. Monte Carlo efficiency is typically estimated via efficiency gain, defined as the reduction in computing time by correlated sampling relative to conventional Monte Carlo methods when equal statistical uncertainties have been achieved. The determination of the efficiency gain uncertainty arising from random effects, however, is not a straightforward task specially when the error distribution is non-normal. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the F distribution and standardized uncertainty propagation methods (widely used in metrology to estimate uncertainty of physical measurements) for predicting confidence intervals about efficiency gain estimates derived from single Monte Carlo runs using fixed-collision correlated sampling in a simplified brachytherapy geometry. A bootstrap based algorithm was used to simulate the probability distribution of the efficiency gain estimates and the shortest 95% confidence interval was estimated from this distribution. It was found that the corresponding relative uncertainty was as large as 37% for this particular problem. The uncertainty propagation framework predicted confidence intervals reasonably well; however its main disadvantage was that uncertainties of input quantities had to be calculated in a separate run via a Monte Carlo method. The F distribution noticeably underestimated the confidence interval. These discrepancies were influenced by several photons with large statistical weights which made extremely large contributions to the scored absorbed dose difference. The mechanism of acquiring high statistical weights in the fixed-collision correlated sampling method was explained and a mitigation strategy was proposed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the appropriateness of applying chi-square distribution based confidence intervals to spectral estimates of helicopter flyover data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rutledge, Charles K.

1988-01-01

The validity of applying chi-square based confidence intervals to far-field acoustic flyover spectral estimates was investigated. Simulated data, using a Kendall series and experimental acoustic data from the NASA/McDonnell Douglas 500E acoustics test, were analyzed. Statistical significance tests to determine the equality of distributions of the simulated and experimental data relative to theoretical chi-square distributions were performed. Bias and uncertainty errors associated with the spectral estimates were easily identified from the data sets. A model relating the uncertainty and bias errors to the estimates resulted, which aided in determining the appropriateness of the chi-square distribution based confidence intervals. Such confidence intervals were appropriate for nontonally associated frequencies of the experimental data but were inappropriate for tonally associated estimate distributions. The appropriateness at the tonally associated frequencies was indicated by the presence of bias error and noncomformity of the distributions to the theoretical chi-square distribution. A technique for determining appropriate confidence intervals at the tonally associated frequencies was suggested.

Towards the estimation of effect measures in studies using respondent-driven sampling.

PubMed

Rotondi, Michael A

2014-06-01

Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) is an increasingly common sampling technique to recruit hidden populations. Statistical methods for RDS are not straightforward due to the correlation between individual outcomes and subject weighting; thus, analyses are typically limited to estimation of population proportions. This manuscript applies the method of variance estimates recovery (MOVER) to construct confidence intervals for effect measures such as risk difference (difference of proportions) or relative risk in studies using RDS. To illustrate the approach, MOVER is used to construct confidence intervals for differences in the prevalence of demographic characteristics between an RDS study and convenience study of injection drug users. MOVER is then applied to obtain a confidence interval for the relative risk between education levels and HIV seropositivity and current infection with syphilis, respectively. This approach provides a simple method to construct confidence intervals for effect measures in RDS studies. Since it only relies on a proportion and appropriate confidence limits, it can also be applied to previously published manuscripts.

Exploring students’ perceived and actual ability in solving statistical problems based on Rasch measurement tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azila Che Musa, Nor; Mahmud, Zamalia; Baharun, Norhayati

2017-09-01

One of the important skills that is required from any student who are learning statistics is knowing how to solve statistical problems correctly using appropriate statistical methods. This will enable them to arrive at a conclusion and make a significant contribution and decision for the society. In this study, a group of 22 students majoring in statistics at UiTM Shah Alam were given problems relating to topics on testing of hypothesis which require them to solve the problems using confidence interval, traditional and p-value approach. Hypothesis testing is one of the techniques used in solving real problems and it is listed as one of the difficult concepts for students to grasp. The objectives of this study is to explore students’ perceived and actual ability in solving statistical problems and to determine which item in statistical problem solving that students find difficult to grasp. Students’ perceived and actual ability were measured based on the instruments developed from the respective topics. Rasch measurement tools such as Wright map and item measures for fit statistics were used to accomplish the objectives. Data were collected and analysed using Winsteps 3.90 software which is developed based on the Rasch measurement model. The results showed that students’ perceived themselves as moderately competent in solving the statistical problems using confidence interval and p-value approach even though their actual performance showed otherwise. Item measures for fit statistics also showed that the maximum estimated measures were found on two problems. These measures indicate that none of the students have attempted these problems correctly due to reasons which include their lack of understanding in confidence interval and probability values.

How Statistics "Excel" Online.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chao, Faith; Davis, James

2000-01-01

Discusses the use of Microsoft Excel software and provides examples of its use in an online statistics course at Golden Gate University in the areas of randomness and probability, sampling distributions, confidence intervals, and regression analysis. (LRW)

Power, effects, confidence, and significance: an investigation of statistical practices in nursing research.

PubMed

Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2014-05-01

To (a) assess the statistical power of nursing research to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes; (b) estimate the experiment-wise Type I error rate in these studies; and (c) assess the extent to which (i) a priori power analyses, (ii) effect sizes (and interpretations thereof), and (iii) confidence intervals were reported. Statistical review. Papers published in the 2011 volumes of the 10 highest ranked nursing journals, based on their 5-year impact factors. Papers were assessed for statistical power, control of experiment-wise Type I error, reporting of a priori power analyses, reporting and interpretation of effect sizes, and reporting of confidence intervals. The analyses were based on 333 papers, from which 10,337 inferential statistics were identified. The median power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes was .40 (interquartile range [IQR]=.24-.71), .98 (IQR=.85-1.00), and 1.00 (IQR=1.00-1.00), respectively. The median experiment-wise Type I error rate was .54 (IQR=.26-.80). A priori power analyses were reported in 28% of papers. Effect sizes were routinely reported for Spearman's rank correlations (100% of papers in which this test was used), Poisson regressions (100%), odds ratios (100%), Kendall's tau correlations (100%), Pearson's correlations (99%), logistic regressions (98%), structural equation modelling/confirmatory factor analyses/path analyses (97%), and linear regressions (83%), but were reported less often for two-proportion z tests (50%), analyses of variance/analyses of covariance/multivariate analyses of variance (18%), t tests (8%), Wilcoxon's tests (8%), Chi-squared tests (8%), and Fisher's exact tests (7%), and not reported for sign tests, Friedman's tests, McNemar's tests, multi-level models, and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Confidence intervals were reported in 28% of papers. The use, reporting, and interpretation of inferential statistics in nursing research need substantial improvement. Most importantly, researchers should abandon the misleading practice of interpreting the results from inferential tests based solely on whether they are statistically significant (or not) and, instead, focus on reporting and interpreting effect sizes, confidence intervals, and significance levels. Nursing researchers also need to conduct and report a priori power analyses, and to address the issue of Type I experiment-wise error inflation in their studies. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing.

PubMed

Oono, Ryoko

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions 'how and why are communities different?' This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences.

A confidence interval analysis of sampling effort, sequencing depth, and taxonomic resolution of fungal community ecology in the era of high-throughput sequencing

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

High-throughput sequencing technology has helped microbial community ecologists explore ecological and evolutionary patterns at unprecedented scales. The benefits of a large sample size still typically outweigh that of greater sequencing depths per sample for accurate estimations of ecological inferences. However, excluding or not sequencing rare taxa may mislead the answers to the questions ‘how and why are communities different?’ This study evaluates the confidence intervals of ecological inferences from high-throughput sequencing data of foliar fungal endophytes as case studies through a range of sampling efforts, sequencing depths, and taxonomic resolutions to understand how technical and analytical practices may affect our interpretations. Increasing sampling size reliably decreased confidence intervals across multiple community comparisons. However, the effects of sequencing depths on confidence intervals depended on how rare taxa influenced the dissimilarity estimates among communities and did not significantly decrease confidence intervals for all community comparisons. A comparison of simulated communities under random drift suggests that sequencing depths are important in estimating dissimilarities between microbial communities under neutral selective processes. Confidence interval analyses reveal important biases as well as biological trends in microbial community studies that otherwise may be ignored when communities are only compared for statistically significant differences. PMID:29253889

Permutation-based inference for the AUC: A unified approach for continuous and discontinuous data.

PubMed

Pauly, Markus; Asendorf, Thomas; Konietschke, Frank

2016-11-01

We investigate rank-based studentized permutation methods for the nonparametric Behrens-Fisher problem, that is, inference methods for the area under the ROC curve. We hereby prove that the studentized permutation distribution of the Brunner-Munzel rank statistic is asymptotically standard normal, even under the alternative. Thus, incidentally providing the hitherto missing theoretical foundation for the Neubert and Brunner studentized permutation test. In particular, we do not only show its consistency, but also that confidence intervals for the underlying treatment effects can be computed by inverting this permutation test. In addition, we derive permutation-based range-preserving confidence intervals. Extensive simulation studies show that the permutation-based confidence intervals appear to maintain the preassigned coverage probability quite accurately (even for rather small sample sizes). For a convenient application of the proposed methods, a freely available software package for the statistical software R has been developed. A real data example illustrates the application. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Investigating Mathematics Teachers' Thoughts of Statistical Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Kai-Lin

2012-01-01

Research on statistical cognition and application suggests that statistical inference concepts are commonly misunderstood by students and even misinterpreted by researchers. Although some research has been done on students' misunderstanding or misconceptions of confidence intervals (CIs), few studies explore either students' or mathematics…

Practical Advice on Calculating Confidence Intervals for Radioprotection Effects and Reducing Animal Numbers in Radiation Countermeasure Experiments

PubMed Central

Landes, Reid D.; Lensing, Shelly Y.; Kodell, Ralph L.; Hauer-Jensen, Martin

2014-01-01

The dose of a substance that causes death in P% of a population is called an LDP, where LD stands for lethal dose. In radiation research, a common LDP of interest is the radiation dose that kills 50% of the population by a specified time, i.e., lethal dose 50 or LD50. When comparing LD50 between two populations, relative potency is the parameter of interest. In radiation research, this is commonly known as the dose reduction factor (DRF). Unfortunately, statistical inference on dose reduction factor is seldom reported. We illustrate how to calculate confidence intervals for dose reduction factor, which may then be used for statistical inference. Further, most dose reduction factor experiments use hundreds, rather than tens of animals. Through better dosing strategies and the use of a recently available sample size formula, we also show how animal numbers may be reduced while maintaining high statistical power. The illustrations center on realistic examples comparing LD50 values between a radiation countermeasure group and a radiation-only control. We also provide easy-to-use spreadsheets for sample size calculations and confidence interval calculations, as well as SAS® and R code for the latter. PMID:24164553

Adjusted Wald Confidence Interval for a Difference of Binomial Proportions Based on Paired Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bonett, Douglas G.; Price, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Adjusted Wald intervals for binomial proportions in one-sample and two-sample designs have been shown to perform about as well as the best available methods. The adjusted Wald intervals are easy to compute and have been incorporated into introductory statistics courses. An adjusted Wald interval for paired binomial proportions is proposed here and…

Statistics Using Just One Formula

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenthal, Jeffrey S.

2018-01-01

This article advocates that introductory statistics be taught by basing all calculations on a single simple margin-of-error formula and deriving all of the standard introductory statistical concepts (confidence intervals, significance tests, comparisons of means and proportions, etc) from that one formula. It is argued that this approach will…

Maternal and neonatal outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Rukuni, Ruramayi; Bhattacharya, Sohinee; Murphy, Michael F; Roberts, David; Stanworth, Simon J; Knight, Marian

2016-05-01

Antenatal anemia is a major public health problem in the UK, yet there is limited high quality evidence for associated poor clinical outcomes. The objectives of this study were to estimate the incidence and clinical outcomes of antenatal anemia in a Scottish population. A retrospective cohort study of 80 422 singleton pregnancies was conducted using data from the Aberdeen Maternal and Neonatal Databank between 1995 and 2012. Antenatal anemia was defined as haemoglobin ≤ 10 g/dl during pregnancy. Incidence was calculated with 95% confidence intervals and compared over time using a chi-squared test for trend. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for confounding variables. Results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence interval. The overall incidence of antenatal anemia was 9.3 cases/100 singleton pregnancies (95% confidence interval 9.1-9.5), decreasing from 16.9/100 to 4.1/100 singleton pregnancies between 1995 and 2012 (p < 0.001). Maternal anemia was associated with antepartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.17-1.36), postpartum infection (adjusted odds ratio 1.89, 95% confidence interval 1.39-2.57), transfusion (adjusted odds ratio 1.87, 95% confidence interval 1.65-2.13) and stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.94), reduced odds of postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86-0.98) and low birthweight (adjusted odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.86). No other outcomes were statistically significant. This study shows the incidence of antenatal anemia is decreasing steadily within this Scottish population. However, given that anemia is a readily correctable risk factor for major causes of morbidity and mortality in the UK, further work is required to investigate appropriate preventive measures. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Statistical inference for the within-device precision of quantitative measurements in assay validation.

PubMed

Liu, Jen-Pei; Lu, Li-Tien; Liao, C T

2009-09-01

Intermediate precision is one of the most important characteristics for evaluation of precision in assay validation. The current methods for evaluation of within-device precision recommended by the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline EP5-A2 are based on the point estimator. On the other hand, in addition to point estimators, confidence intervals can provide a range for the within-device precision with a probability statement. Therefore, we suggest a confidence interval approach for assessment of the within-device precision. Furthermore, under the two-stage nested random-effects model recommended by the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2, in addition to the current Satterthwaite's approximation and the modified large sample (MLS) methods, we apply the technique of generalized pivotal quantities (GPQ) to derive the confidence interval for the within-device precision. The data from the approved CLSI guideline EP5-A2 illustrate the applications of the confidence interval approach and comparison of results between the three methods. Results of a simulation study on the coverage probability and expected length of the three methods are reported. The proposed method of the GPQ-based confidence intervals is also extended to consider the between-laboratories variation for precision assessment.

Multi-reader ROC studies with split-plot designs: a comparison of statistical methods.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Gallas, Brandon D; Hillis, Stephen L

2012-12-01

Multireader imaging trials often use a factorial design, in which study patients undergo testing with all imaging modalities and readers interpret the results of all tests for all patients. A drawback of this design is the large number of interpretations required of each reader. Split-plot designs have been proposed as an alternative, in which one or a subset of readers interprets all images of a sample of patients, while other readers interpret the images of other samples of patients. In this paper, the authors compare three methods of analysis for the split-plot design. Three statistical methods are presented: the Obuchowski-Rockette method modified for the split-plot design, a newly proposed marginal-mean analysis-of-variance approach, and an extension of the three-sample U-statistic method. A simulation study using the Roe-Metz model was performed to compare the type I error rate, power, and confidence interval coverage of the three test statistics. The type I error rates for all three methods are close to the nominal level but tend to be slightly conservative. The statistical power is nearly identical for the three methods. The coverage of 95% confidence intervals falls close to the nominal coverage for small and large sample sizes. The split-plot multireader, multicase study design can be statistically efficient compared to the factorial design, reducing the number of interpretations required per reader. Three methods of analysis, shown to have nominal type I error rates, similar power, and nominal confidence interval coverage, are available for this study design. Copyright © 2012 AUR. All rights reserved.

A randomized clinical trial with two doses of an enteral diabetes-specific suplements in elderly patients with diabetes mellitus type 2.

PubMed

de Luis, D A; Izaola, O; de la Fuente, B; Terroba, M C; Cuellar, L; Cabezas, G

2013-06-01

The aim of our study was to investigate whether two different daily doses of a high monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) specific diabetes enteral formula could improve nutritional variables as well as metabolic parameters. We conducted a randomized, open-label, multicenter, parallel group study. 27 patients with diabetes mellitus type 2 with recent weight loss were randomized to one of two study groups: group 1 (two cans per day) and group 2 (three cans per day) for a ten week period. A significative decrease of HbA1c was detected in both groups. The decrease 0.98% (confidence interval 95% 0.19-1.88) was higher in group 2 than group 1 0.60% (confidence interval 95% 0.14-1.04). A significant increase of weight, body mass index, fat mass, albumin, prealbumin and transferrin was observed in both groups without statistical differences in this improvement between both groups. The increase of weight 4.59kg (confidence interval 95% 1.71-9.49) was higher in group 2 than group 1 1.46% (confidence interval 95% 0.39-2.54). Gastrointestinal tolerance (diarrhea episodes) with both formulas was good, without statistical differences (7.60% vs 7.14%: ns). A high monounsaturated fatty acid diabetes-specific supplement improved HbA1c and nutritional status. These improvements were higher with three supplements than with two per day.

Health significance and statistical uncertainty. The value of P-value.

PubMed

Consonni, Dario; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto

2017-10-27

The P-value is widely used as a summary statistics of scientific results. Unfortunately, there is a widespread tendency to dichotomize its value in "P<0.05" (defined as "statistically significant") and "P>0.05" ("statistically not significant"), with the former implying a "positive" result and the latter a "negative" one. To show the unsuitability of such an approach when evaluating the effects of environmental and occupational risk factors. We provide examples of distorted use of P-value and of the negative consequences for science and public health of such a black-and-white vision. The rigid interpretation of P-value as a dichotomy favors the confusion between health relevance and statistical significance, discourages thoughtful thinking, and distorts attention from what really matters, the health significance. A much better way to express and communicate scientific results involves reporting effect estimates (e.g., risks, risks ratios or risk differences) and their confidence intervals (CI), which summarize and convey both health significance and statistical uncertainty. Unfortunately, many researchers do not usually consider the whole interval of CI but only examine if it includes the null-value, therefore degrading this procedure to the same P-value dichotomy (statistical significance or not). In reporting statistical results of scientific research present effects estimates with their confidence intervals and do not qualify the P-value as "significant" or "not significant".

Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krantz, Timothy L.

2005-01-01

A Fortran computer program has been written for performing statistical analyses of fatigue-test data that are assumed to be adequately represented by a two-parameter Weibull distribution. This program calculates the following: (1) Maximum-likelihood estimates of the Weibull distribution; (2) Data for contour plots of relative likelihood for two parameters; (3) Data for contour plots of joint confidence regions; (4) Data for the profile likelihood of the Weibull-distribution parameters; (5) Data for the profile likelihood of any percentile of the distribution; and (6) Likelihood-based confidence intervals for parameters and/or percentiles of the distribution. The program can account for tests that are suspended without failure (the statistical term for such suspension of tests is "censoring"). The analytical approach followed in this program for the software is valid for type-I censoring, which is the removal of unfailed units at pre-specified times. Confidence regions and intervals are calculated by use of the likelihood-ratio method.

Temporal Variability in the Deglutition Literature

PubMed Central

Molfenter, Sonja M.; Steele, Catriona M.

2013-01-01

A literature review was conducted on temporal measures of swallowing in healthy individuals with the purpose of determining the degree of variability present in such measures within the literature. A total of 46 studies that met inclusion criteria were reviewed. The definitions and descriptive statistics for all reported temporal parameters were compiled for meta-analysis. In total, 119 different temporal parameters were found in the literature. The three most-frequently occurring durational measures were: UES opening, laryngeal closure and hyoid movement. The three most-frequently occurring interval measures were: stage transition duration, pharyngeal transit time and duration from laryngeal closure to UES opening. Subtle variations in operational definitions across studies were noted, making the comparison of data challenging. Analysis of forest plots compiling descriptive statistical data (means and 95% confidence intervals) across studies revealed differing degrees of variability across durations and intervals. Two parameters (UES opening duration and the laryngeal-closure-to-UES-opening interval) demonstrated the least variability, reflected by small ranges for mean values and tight confidence intervals. Trends emerged for factors of bolus size and participant age for some variables. Other potential sources of variability are discussed. PMID:22366761

Using Context Variety and Students' Discussions in Recognizing Statistical Situations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silva, José Luis Ángel Rodríguez; Aguilar, Mario Sánchez

2016-01-01

We present a proposal for helping students to cope with statistical word problems related to the classification of different cases of confidence intervals. The proposal promotes an environment where students can explicitly discuss the reasons underlying their classification of cases.

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Can 3-dimensional power Doppler indices improve the prenatal diagnosis of a potentially morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa?

PubMed

Haidar, Ziad A; Papanna, Ramesha; Sibai, Baha M; Tatevian, Nina; Viteri, Oscar A; Vowels, Patricia C; Blackwell, Sean C; Moise, Kenneth J

2017-08-01

Traditionally, 2-dimensional ultrasound parameters have been used for the diagnosis of a suspected morbidly adherent placenta previa. More objective techniques have not been well studied yet. The objective of the study was to determine the ability of prenatal 3-dimensional power Doppler analysis of flow and vascular indices to predict the morbidly adherent placenta objectively. A prospective cohort study was performed in women between 28 and 32 gestational weeks with known placenta previa. Patients underwent a two-dimensional gray-scale ultrasound that determined management decisions. 3-Dimensional power Doppler volumes were obtained during the same examination and vascular, flow, and vascular flow indices were calculated after manual tracing of the viewed placenta in the sweep; data were blinded to obstetricians. Morbidly adherent placenta was confirmed by histology. Severe morbidly adherent placenta was defined as increta/percreta on histology, blood loss >2000 mL, and >2 units of PRBC transfused. Sensitivities, specificities, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. Student t and χ 2 tests, logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and intra- and interrater agreements using Kappa statistics were performed. The following results were found: (1) 50 women were studied: 23 had morbidly adherent placenta, of which 12 (52.2%) were severe morbidly adherent placenta; (2) 2-dimensional parameters diagnosed morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity of 82.6% (95% confidence interval, 60.4-94.2), a specificity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 69.7-97.1), a positive predictive value of 86.3% (95% confidence interval, 64.0-96.4), a negative predictive value of 85.7% (95% confidence interval, 66.4-95.3), a positive likelihood ratio of 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-21.9), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.2 (95% confidence interval, 0.08-0.48); (3) mean values of the vascular index (32.8 ± 7.4) and the vascular flow index (14.2 ± 3.8) were higher in morbidly adherent placenta (P < .001); (4) area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the vascular and vascular flow indices were 0.99 and 0.97, respectively; (5) the vascular index ≥21 predicted morbidly adherent placenta with a sensitivity and a specificity of 95% (95% confidence interval, 88.2-96.9) and 91%, respectively (95% confidence interval, 87.5-92.4), 92% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 85.5-94.3), 90% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 79.9-95.3), positive likelihood ratio of 10.55 (95% confidence interval, 7.06-12.75), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.03-0.13); and (6) for the severe morbidly adherent placenta, 2-dimensional ultrasound had a sensitivity of 33.3% (95% confidence interval, 11.3-64.6), a specificity of 81.8% (95% confidence interval, 47.8-96.8), a positive predictive value of 66.7% (95% confidence interval, 24.1-94.1), a negative predictive value of 52.9% (95% confidence interval, 28.5-76.1), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.41-8.11), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-1.26). A vascular index ≥31 predicted the diagnosis of a severe morbidly adherent placenta with a 100% sensitivity (95% confidence interval, 72-100), a 90% specificity (95% confidence interval, 81.7-93.8), an 88% positive predictive value (95% confidence interval, 55.0-91.3), a 100% negative predictive value (95% confidence interval, 90.9-100), a positive likelihood ratio of 10.0 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-16.13), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0 (95% confidence interval, 0-0.34). Intrarater and interrater agreements were 94% (P < .001) and 93% (P < .001), respectively. The vascular index accurately predicts the morbidly adherent placenta in patients with placenta previa. In addition, 3-dimensional power Doppler vascular and vascular flow indices were more predictive of severe cases of morbidly adherent placenta compared with 2-dimensional ultrasound. This objective technique may limit the variations in diagnosing morbidly adherent placenta because of the subjectivity of 2-dimensional ultrasound interpretations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Active management of the third stage of labor with and without controlled cord traction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Du, Yongming; Ye, Man; Zheng, Feiyun

2014-07-01

To determine the specific effect of controlled cord traction in the third stage of labor in the prevention of postpartum hemorrhage. We searched PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science (inception to 30 October 2013). Randomized controlled trials comparing controlled cord traction with hands-off management in the third stage of labor were included. Five randomized controlled trials involving a total of 30 532 participants were eligible. No significant difference was found between controlled cord traction and hands-off management groups with respect to the incidence of severe postpartum hemorrhage (relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.77-1.08), need for blood transfusion (relative risk 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.69-1.33) or therapeutic uterotonics (relative risk 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.01). However, controlled cord traction reduced the incidence of postpartum hemorrhage in general (relative risk 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.87-0.99; number-needed-to-treat 111, 95% confidence interval 61-666), as well manual removal of the placenta (relative risk 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.84) and duration of the third stage of labor (mean difference -3.20, 95% confidence interval -3.21 to -3.19). Controlled cord traction appears to reduce the risk of any postpartum hemorrhage in a general sense, as well as manual removal of the placenta and the duration of the third stage of labor. However, the reduction in the occurrence of severe postpartum hemorrhage, need for additional uterotonics and blood transfusion is not statistically significant. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Nested Structural Equation Models: Noncentrality and Power of Restriction Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raykov, Tenko; Penev, Spiridon

1998-01-01

Discusses the difference in noncentrality parameters of nested structural equation models and their utility in evaluating statistical power associated with the pertinent restriction test. Asymptotic confidence intervals for that difference are presented. These intervals represent a useful adjunct to goodness-of-fit indexes in assessing constraints…

Evaluation of the statistical evidence for Characteristic Earthquakes in the frequency-magnitude distributions of Sumatra and other subduction zone regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naylor, M.; Main, I. G.; Greenhough, J.; Bell, A. F.; McCloskey, J.

2009-04-01

The Sumatran Boxing Day earthquake and subsequent large events provide an opportunity to re-evaluate the statistical evidence for characteristic earthquake events in frequency-magnitude distributions. Our aims are to (i) improve intuition regarding the properties of samples drawn from power laws, (ii) illustrate using random samples how appropriate Poisson confidence intervals can both aid the eye and provide an appropriate statistical evaluation of data drawn from power-law distributions, and (iii) apply these confidence intervals to test for evidence of characteristic earthquakes in subduction-zone frequency-magnitude distributions. We find no need for a characteristic model to describe frequency magnitude distributions in any of the investigated subduction zones, including Sumatra, due to an emergent skew in residuals of power law count data at high magnitudes combined with a sample bias for examining large earthquakes as candidate characteristic events.

Elaborating Selected Statistical Concepts with Common Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weaver, Kenneth A.

1992-01-01

Presents ways of elaborating statistical concepts so as to make course material more meaningful for students. Describes examples using exclamations, circus and cartoon characters, and falling leaves to illustrate variability, null hypothesis testing, and confidence interval. Concludes that the exercises increase student comprehension of the text…

Standard Errors and Confidence Intervals of Norm Statistics for Educational and Psychological Tests.

PubMed

Oosterhuis, Hannah E M; van der Ark, L Andries; Sijtsma, Klaas

2016-11-14

Norm statistics allow for the interpretation of scores on psychological and educational tests, by relating the test score of an individual test taker to the test scores of individuals belonging to the same gender, age, or education groups, et cetera. Given the uncertainty due to sampling error, one would expect researchers to report standard errors for norm statistics. In practice, standard errors are seldom reported; they are either unavailable or derived under strong distributional assumptions that may not be realistic for test scores. We derived standard errors for four norm statistics (standard deviation, percentile ranks, stanine boundaries and Z-scores) under the mild assumption that the test scores are multinomially distributed. A simulation study showed that the standard errors were unbiased and that corresponding Wald-based confidence intervals had good coverage. Finally, we discuss the possibilities for applying the standard errors in practical test use in education and psychology. The procedure is provided via the R function check.norms, which is available in the mokken package.

New Approaches to Robust Confidence Intervals for Location: A Simulation Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1984-06-01

obtain a denominator for the test statistic. Those statistics based on location estimates derived from Hampel’s redescending influence function or v...defined an influence function for a test in terms of the behavior of its P-values when the data are sampled from a model distribution modified by point...proposal could be used for interval estimation as well as hypothesis testing, the extension is immediate. Once an influence function has been defined

An Inferential Confidence Interval Method of Establishing Statistical Equivalence that Corrects Tryon's (2001) Reduction Factor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

2008-01-01

Evidence of group matching frequently takes the form of a nonsignificant test of statistical difference. Theoretical hypotheses of no difference are also tested in this way. These practices are flawed in that null hypothesis statistical testing provides evidence against the null hypothesis and failing to reject H[subscript 0] is not evidence…

QQ-plots for assessing distributions of biomarker measurements and generating defensible summary statistics

EPA Science Inventory

One of the main uses of biomarker measurements is to compare different populations to each other and to assess risk in comparison to established parameters. This is most often done using summary statistics such as central tendency, variance components, confidence intervals, excee...

The statistical significance of error probability as determined from decoding simulations for long codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massey, J. L.

1976-01-01

The very low error probability obtained with long error-correcting codes results in a very small number of observed errors in simulation studies of practical size and renders the usual confidence interval techniques inapplicable to the observed error probability. A natural extension of the notion of a 'confidence interval' is made and applied to such determinations of error probability by simulation. An example is included to show the surprisingly great significance of as few as two decoding errors in a very large number of decoding trials.

’Exact’ Two-Sided Confidence Intervals on Nonnegative Linear Combinations of Variances.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-07-01

Colorado State University ( 042_402) II. CONTrOLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS It. REPORT OAT Office of Naval Rsearch -// 1 Jul MjW80 Statistics and...MONNEGATIVE LINEAR COMBINATIONS OF VARIANCES by Franklin A. Graybill Colorado State University and Chih-Ming Wang SPSS Inc. 1. Introduction In a paper to soon...1 + a2’ called the Nodf Led Lace Sample (HLS) confidence interval, is in 2. Aoce-3Ion For DDC TAO u*.- *- -. n c edI Ju.-’I if iction_, i !~BV . . I

TSP Symposium 2012 Proceedings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-11-01

and Statistical Model 78 7.3 Analysis and Results 79 7.4 Threats to Validity and Limitations 85 7.5 Conclusions 86 7.6 Acknowledgments 87 7.7...Table 12: Overall Statistics of the Experiment 32 Table 13: Results of Pairwise ANOVA Analysis, Highlighting Statistically Significant Differences...we calculated the percentage of defects injected. The distribution statistics are shown in Table 2. Table 2: Mean Lower, Upper Confidence Interval

Interpreting “statistical hypothesis testing” results in clinical research

PubMed Central

Sarmukaddam, Sanjeev B.

2012-01-01

Difference between “Clinical Significance and Statistical Significance” should be kept in mind while interpreting “statistical hypothesis testing” results in clinical research. This fact is already known to many but again pointed out here as philosophy of “statistical hypothesis testing” is sometimes unnecessarily criticized mainly due to failure in considering such distinction. Randomized controlled trials are also wrongly criticized similarly. Some scientific method may not be applicable in some peculiar/particular situation does not mean that the method is useless. Also remember that “statistical hypothesis testing” is not for decision making and the field of “decision analysis” is very much an integral part of science of statistics. It is not correct to say that “confidence intervals have nothing to do with confidence” unless one understands meaning of the word “confidence” as used in context of confidence interval. Interpretation of the results of every study should always consider all possible alternative explanations like chance, bias, and confounding. Statistical tests in inferential statistics are, in general, designed to answer the question “How likely is the difference found in random sample(s) is due to chance” and therefore limitation of relying only on statistical significance in making clinical decisions should be avoided. PMID:22707861

Statistical Significance vs. Practical Significance: An Exploration through Health Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Brittany L.; DeMaria, Andrea L.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the differences between statistical and practical significance, including strengths and criticisms of both methods, as well as provide information surrounding the application of various effect sizes and confidence intervals within health education research. Provided are recommendations, explanations and…

Estimating equivalence with quantile regression

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.

2011-01-01

Equivalence testing and corresponding confidence interval estimates are used to provide more enlightened statistical statements about parameter estimates by relating them to intervals of effect sizes deemed to be of scientific or practical importance rather than just to an effect size of zero. Equivalence tests and confidence interval estimates are based on a null hypothesis that a parameter estimate is either outside (inequivalence hypothesis) or inside (equivalence hypothesis) an equivalence region, depending on the question of interest and assignment of risk. The former approach, often referred to as bioequivalence testing, is often used in regulatory settings because it reverses the burden of proof compared to a standard test of significance, following a precautionary principle for environmental protection. Unfortunately, many applications of equivalence testing focus on establishing average equivalence by estimating differences in means of distributions that do not have homogeneous variances. I discuss how to compare equivalence across quantiles of distributions using confidence intervals on quantile regression estimates that detect differences in heterogeneous distributions missed by focusing on means. I used one-tailed confidence intervals based on inequivalence hypotheses in a two-group treatment-control design for estimating bioequivalence of arsenic concentrations in soils at an old ammunition testing site and bioequivalence of vegetation biomass at a reclaimed mining site. Two-tailed confidence intervals based both on inequivalence and equivalence hypotheses were used to examine quantile equivalence for negligible trends over time for a continuous exponential model of amphibian abundance. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

Stapled versus handsewn methods for colorectal anastomosis surgery.

PubMed

Lustosa, S A; Matos, D; Atallah, A N; Castro, A A

2001-01-01

Randomized controlled trials comparing stapled with handsewn colorectal anastomosis have not shown either technique to be superior, perhaps because individual studies lacked statistical power. A systematic review, with pooled analysis of results, might provide a more definitive answer. To compare the safety and effectiveness of stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. The following primary hypothesis was tested: the stapled technique is more effective because it decreases the level of complications. The RCT register of the Cochrane Review Group was searched for any trial or reference to a relevant trial (published, in-press, or in progress). All publications were sought through computerised searches of EMBASE, LILACS, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Controlled Clinical Trials Database, and through letters to industrial companies and authors. There were no limits upon language, date, or other criteria. All randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in which stapled and handsewn colorectal anastomosis were compared. Adult patients submitted electively to colorectal anastomosis. Endoluminal circular stapler and handsewn colorectal anastomosis. a) Mortality b) Overall Anastomotic Dehiscence c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence e) Stricture f) Anastomotic Haemorrhage g) Reoperation h) Wound Infection i) Anastomosis Duration j) Hospital Stay. Data were independently extracted by the two reviewers (SASL, DM) and cross-checked. The methodological quality of each trial was assessed by the same two reviewers. Details of the randomization (generation and concealment), blinding, whether an intention-to-treat analysis was done, and the number of patients lost to follow-up were recorded. The results of each RCT were summarised on an intention-to-treat basis in 2 x 2 tables for each outcome. External validity was defined by characteristics of the participants, the interventions and the outcomes. The RCTs were stratified according to the level of colorectal anastomosis. The Risk Difference method (random effects model) and NNT for dichotomous outcomes measures and weighted mean difference for continuous outcomes measures, with the corresponding 95% confidence interval, were presented in this review. Statistical heterogeneity was evaluated by using funnel plot and chi-square testing. Of the 1233 patients enrolled ( in 9 trials), 622 were treated with stapled, and 611 with manual, suture. The following main results were obtained: a) Mortality: result based on 901 patients; Risk Difference - 0.6% Confidence Interval -2.8% to +1.6%. b) Overall Dehiscence: result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference 0.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.0% to +5.3%. c) Clinical Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 1233 patients; Risk Difference -1.4%, 95% Confidence Interval -5.2 to +2.3%. d) Radiological Anastomotic Dehiscence : result based on 825 patients; Risk Difference 1.2%, 95% Confidence Interval -4.8% to +7.3%. e) Stricture: result based on 1042 patients; Risk Difference 4.6%, 95% Confidence Interval 1.2% to 8.1%. Number needed to treat 17, 95% confidence interval 12 to 31. f) Anastomotic Hemorrhage: result based on 662 patients; Risk Difference 2.7%, 95% Confidence Interval - 0.1% to +5.5%. g) Reoperation: result based on 544 patients; Risk Difference 3.9%, 95% Confidence Interval 0.3% to 7.4%. h) Wound Infection: result based on 567 patients; Risk Difference 1.0%, 95% Confidence Interval -2.2% to +4.3%. i) Anastomosis duration: result based on one study (159 patients); Weighted Mean Difference -7.6 minutes, 95% Confidence Interval -12.9 to -2.2 minutes. j) Hospital Stay: result based on one study (159 patients), Weighted Mean Difference 2.0 days, 95% Confidence Interval -3.27 to +7.2 days. The evidence found was insufficient to demonstrate any superiority of stapled over handsewn techniques in colorectal anastomosis, regardless of the level of anastomosis.

Predictor sort sampling and one-sided confidence bounds on quantiles

Treesearch

Steve Verrill; Victoria L. Herian; David W. Green

2002-01-01

Predictor sort experiments attempt to make use of the correlation between a predictor that can be measured prior to the start of an experiment and the response variable that we are investigating. Properly designed and analyzed, they can reduce necessary sample sizes, increase statistical power, and reduce the lengths of confidence intervals. However, if the non- random...

Acute toxicity of diazinon is similar for eight stocks of bobwhite

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, E.F.; Camardese, M.B.; Heinz, G.H.; Spann, J.W.; DeBevec, A.B.

1984-01-01

Nine-week-old bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) from eight different game farms were tested for their sensitivity to an acute oral exposure of technical-grade diazinon (phosphorothioic acid O, O-diethyl-O-[6-methyl- 2-(1 -methylethy 1)-4-pyrimidinyl]ester). Extraneous variables associated with interlaboratory differences in husbandry were eliminated by incubating eggs and rearing chicks to test age for all stocks simultaneously in the same facilities at the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center. Under this single set of conditions, the responses of the eight stocks of bobwhite to diazinon were statistically inseparable, with LD50 values varying from 13 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 8-21 mg/kg) to 17 mg/kg (95% confidence interval, 11-25 mg/kg). The pooled LD50 for the eight stocks was 14.7 mg/kg (95% confidence interval,13.1-16.5 mg/kg).

Numeric pathologic lymph node classification shows prognostic superiority to topographic pN classification in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Sugawara, Kotaro; Yamashita, Hiroharu; Uemura, Yukari; Mitsui, Takashi; Yagi, Koichi; Nishida, Masato; Aikou, Susumu; Mori, Kazuhiko; Nomura, Sachiyo; Seto, Yasuyuki

2017-10-01

The current eighth tumor node metastasis lymph node category pathologic lymph node staging system for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma is based solely on the number of metastatic nodes and does not consider anatomic distribution. We aimed to assess the prognostic capability of the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system (numeric-based) compared with the 11th Japan Esophageal Society (topography-based) pathologic lymph node staging system in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of 289 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who underwent esophagectomy with extended lymph node dissection during the period from January 2006 through June 2016. We compared discrimination abilities for overall survival, recurrence-free survival, and cancer-specific survival between these 2 staging systems using C-statistics. The median number of dissected and metastatic nodes was 61 (25% to 75% quartile range, 45 to 79) and 1 (25% to 75% quartile range, 0 to 3), respectively. The eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node staging system had a greater ability to accurately determine overall survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.69, 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.76; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.65, 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.71; P = .014) and cancer-specific survival (C-statistics: tumor node metastasis classification, 0.78, 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.87; Japan Esophageal Society classification; 0.72, 95% confidence interval, 0.64-0.80; P = .018). Rates of total recurrence rose as the eighth tumor node metastasis pathologic lymph node stage increased, while stratification of patients according to the topography-based node classification system was not feasible. Numeric nodal staging is an essential tool for stratifying the oncologic outcomes of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma even in the cohort in which adequate numbers of lymph nodes were harvested. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk score for predicting coronary artery disease in women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test finding.

PubMed

Lo, Monica Y; Bonthala, Nirupama; Holper, Elizabeth M; Banks, Kamakki; Murphy, Sabina A; McGuire, Darren K; de Lemos, James A; Khera, Amit

2013-03-15

Women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings commonly have no epicardial coronary artery disease (CAD) at catheterization. The aim of the present study was to develop a risk score to predict obstructive CAD in such patients. Data were analyzed from 337 consecutive women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings who underwent cardiac catheterization at our center from 2003 to 2007. Forward selection multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the independent predictors of CAD, defined by ≥50% diameter stenosis in ≥1 epicardial coronary artery. The independent predictors included age ≥55 years (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 4.0), body mass index <30 kg/m(2) (odds ratio 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 3.1), smoking (odds ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.8), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), family history of premature CAD (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.7), lateral abnormality on stress imaging (odds ratio 2.8, 95% confidence interval 1.5 to 5.5), and exercise capacity <5 metabolic equivalents (odds ratio 2.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 5.6). Assigning each variable 1 point summed to constitute a risk score, a graded association between the score and prevalent CAD (ptrend <0.001). The risk score demonstrated good discrimination with a cross-validated c-statistic of 0.745 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.79), and an optimized cutpoint of a score of ≤2 included 62% of the subjects and had a negative predictive value of 80%. In conclusion, a simple clinical risk score of 7 characteristics can help differentiate those more or less likely to have CAD among women with angina pectoris and abnormal stress test findings. This tool, if validated, could help to guide testing strategies in women with angina pectoris. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Trial Sequential Analysis in systematic reviews with meta-analysis.

PubMed

Wetterslev, Jørn; Jakobsen, Janus Christian; Gluud, Christian

2017-03-06

Most meta-analyses in systematic reviews, including Cochrane ones, do not have sufficient statistical power to detect or refute even large intervention effects. This is why a meta-analysis ought to be regarded as an interim analysis on its way towards a required information size. The results of the meta-analyses should relate the total number of randomised participants to the estimated required meta-analytic information size accounting for statistical diversity. When the number of participants and the corresponding number of trials in a meta-analysis are insufficient, the use of the traditional 95% confidence interval or the 5% statistical significance threshold will lead to too many false positive conclusions (type I errors) and too many false negative conclusions (type II errors). We developed a methodology for interpreting meta-analysis results, using generally accepted, valid evidence on how to adjust thresholds for significance in randomised clinical trials when the required sample size has not been reached. The Lan-DeMets trial sequential monitoring boundaries in Trial Sequential Analysis offer adjusted confidence intervals and restricted thresholds for statistical significance when the diversity-adjusted required information size and the corresponding number of required trials for the meta-analysis have not been reached. Trial Sequential Analysis provides a frequentistic approach to control both type I and type II errors. We define the required information size and the corresponding number of required trials in a meta-analysis and the diversity (D 2 ) measure of heterogeneity. We explain the reasons for using Trial Sequential Analysis of meta-analysis when the actual information size fails to reach the required information size. We present examples drawn from traditional meta-analyses using unadjusted naïve 95% confidence intervals and 5% thresholds for statistical significance. Spurious conclusions in systematic reviews with traditional meta-analyses can be reduced using Trial Sequential Analysis. Several empirical studies have demonstrated that the Trial Sequential Analysis provides better control of type I errors and of type II errors than the traditional naïve meta-analysis. Trial Sequential Analysis represents analysis of meta-analytic data, with transparent assumptions, and better control of type I and type II errors than the traditional meta-analysis using naïve unadjusted confidence intervals.

Variance estimates and confidence intervals for the Kappa measure of classification accuracy

Treesearch

M. A. Kalkhan; R. M. Reich; R. L. Czaplewski

1997-01-01

The Kappa statistic is frequently used to characterize the results of an accuracy assessment used to evaluate land use and land cover classifications obtained by remotely sensed data. This statistic allows comparisons of alternative sampling designs, classification algorithms, photo-interpreters, and so forth. In order to make these comparisons, it is...

Monte Carlo simulation of parameter confidence intervals for non-linear regression analysis of biological data using Microsoft Excel.

PubMed

Lambert, Ronald J W; Mytilinaios, Ioannis; Maitland, Luke; Brown, Angus M

2012-08-01

This study describes a method to obtain parameter confidence intervals from the fitting of non-linear functions to experimental data, using the SOLVER and Analysis ToolPaK Add-In of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. Previously we have shown that Excel can fit complex multiple functions to biological data, obtaining values equivalent to those returned by more specialized statistical or mathematical software. However, a disadvantage of using the Excel method was the inability to return confidence intervals for the computed parameters or the correlations between them. Using a simple Monte-Carlo procedure within the Excel spreadsheet (without recourse to programming), SOLVER can provide parameter estimates (up to 200 at a time) for multiple 'virtual' data sets, from which the required confidence intervals and correlation coefficients can be obtained. The general utility of the method is exemplified by applying it to the analysis of the growth of Listeria monocytogenes, the growth inhibition of Pseudomonas aeruginosa by chlorhexidine and the further analysis of the electrophysiological data from the compound action potential of the rodent optic nerve. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-traumatic stress disorder in adolescents after a hurricane.

PubMed

Garrison, C Z; Weinrich, M W; Hardin, S B; Weinrich, S; Wang, L

1993-10-01

A school-based study conducted in 1990, 1 year after Hurricane Hugo, investigated the frequency and correlates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in 1,264 adolescents aged 11-17 years residing in selected South Carolina communities. Data were collected via a 174-item self-administered questionnaire that included a PTSD symptom scale. A computer algorithm that applied decision rules of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised to the symptoms reported was used to assign a diagnosis of PTSD and to designate the number of individuals who met the reexperiencing (20%), avoidance (9%), and arousal (18%) criteria. Rates of PTSD were lowest in black males (1.5%) and higher, but similar, in the remaining groups (3.8-6.2%). Results from a multivariable logistic model indicated that exposure to the hurricane (odds ratio (OR) = 1.26, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.41), experiencing other violent traumatic events (OR = 2.46, 95% confidence interval 1.75-3.44), being white (OR = 2.03, 95% confidence interval 1.12-3.69) and being female (OR = 2.17, 95% confidence interval 1.15-4.10) were significant correlates of PTSD.

Bendectin and human congenital malformations.

PubMed

Shiono, P H; Klebanoff, M A

1989-08-01

The relationship between Bendectin exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy and the occurrence of congenital malformations was prospectively studied in 31,564 newborns registered in the Northern California Kaiser Permanente Birth Defects Study. The odds ratio for any major malformation and Bendectin use was 1.0 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.4). There were 58 categories of congenital malformations; three of them were statistically associated with Bendectin exposure (microcephaly--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.8-15.6; congenital cataract--odds ratio = 5.3, 95% confidence interval = 1.2-24.3; lung malformations (ICD-8 codes 484.4-484.8)--odds ratio = 4.6, 95% confidence interval = 1.9-10.9). This is exactly the number of associations that would be expected by chance. An independent study (the Collaborative Perinatal Project) was used to determine whether vomiting during pregnancy in the absence of Bendectin use was associated with these three malformations. Two of the three (microcephaly and cataract) had strong positive associations with vomiting in the absence of Bendectin use. We conclude that there is no increase in the overall rate of major malformations after exposure to Bendectin and that the three associations found between Bendectin and individual malformations are unlikely to be causal.

Uncertainty Quantification and Statistical Convergence Guidelines for PIV Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stegmeir, Matthew; Kassen, Dan

2016-11-01

As Particle Image Velocimetry has continued to mature, it has developed into a robust and flexible technique for velocimetry used by expert and non-expert users. While historical estimates of PIV accuracy have typically relied heavily on "rules of thumb" and analysis of idealized synthetic images, recently increased emphasis has been placed on better quantifying real-world PIV measurement uncertainty. Multiple techniques have been developed to provide per-vector instantaneous uncertainty estimates for PIV measurements. Often real-world experimental conditions introduce complications in collecting "optimal" data, and the effect of these conditions is important to consider when planning an experimental campaign. The current work utilizes the results of PIV Uncertainty Quantification techniques to develop a framework for PIV users to utilize estimated PIV confidence intervals to compute reliable data convergence criteria for optimal sampling of flow statistics. Results are compared using experimental and synthetic data, and recommended guidelines and procedures leveraging estimated PIV confidence intervals for efficient sampling for converged statistics are provided.

Stability of INFIT and OUTFIT Compared to Simulated Estimates in Applied Setting.

PubMed

Hodge, Kari J; Morgan, Grant B

Residual-based fit statistics are commonly used as an indication of the extent to which the item response data fit the Rash model. Fit statistic estimates are influenced by sample size and rules-of thumb estimates may result in incorrect conclusions about the extent to which the model fits the data. Estimates obtained in this analysis were compared to 250 simulated data sets to examine the stability of the estimates. All INFIT estimates were within the rule-of-thumb range of 0.7 to 1.3. However, only 82% of the INFIT estimates fell within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the simulated item's INFIT distributions using this 95% confidence-like interval. This is a 18 percentage point difference in items that were classified as acceptable. Fourty-eight percent of OUTFIT estimates fell within the 0.7 to 1.3 rule- of-thumb range. Whereas 34% of OUTFIT estimates fell within the 2.5th and 97.5th percentile of the simulated item's OUTFIT distributions. This is a 13 percentage point difference in items that were classified as acceptable. When using the rule-of- thumb ranges for fit estimates the magnitude of misfit was smaller than with the 95% confidence interval of the simulated distribution. The findings indicate that the use of confidence intervals as critical values for fit statistics leads to different model data fit conclusions than traditional rule of thumb critical values.

Statistical inferences with jointly type-II censored samples from two Pareto distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abu-Zinadah, Hanaa H.

2017-08-01

In the several fields of industries the product comes from more than one production line, which is required to work the comparative life tests. This problem requires sampling of the different production lines, then the joint censoring scheme is appeared. In this article we consider the life time Pareto distribution with jointly type-II censoring scheme. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) and the corresponding approximate confidence intervals as well as the bootstrap confidence intervals of the model parameters are obtained. Also Bayesian point and credible intervals of the model parameters are presented. The life time data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes. Monte Carlo results from simulation studies are presented to assess the performance of our proposed method.

Nonparametric spirometry reference values for Hispanic Americans.

PubMed

Glenn, Nancy L; Brown, Vanessa M

2011-02-01

Recent literature sites ethnic origin as a major factor in developing pulmonary function reference values. Extensive studies established reference values for European and African Americans, but not for Hispanic Americans. The Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey defines Hispanic as individuals of Spanish speaking cultures. While no group was excluded from the target population, sample size requirements only allowed inclusion of individuals who identified themselves as Mexican Americans. This research constructs nonparametric reference value confidence intervals for Hispanic American pulmonary function. The method is applicable to all ethnicities. We use empirical likelihood confidence intervals to establish normal ranges for reference values. Its major advantage: it is model free, but shares asymptotic properties of model based methods. Statistical comparisons indicate that empirical likelihood interval lengths are comparable to normal theory intervals. Power and efficiency studies agree with previously published theoretical results.

Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

2009-06-01

When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

Is what Filipino children eat between meals associated with body mass index?

PubMed

Gonzalez-Suarez, Consuelo B; Lee-Pineda, Karen; Caralipio, Nenita D; Grimmer-Somers, Karen; Sibug, Eleanor O; Velasco, Zenaida F

2015-03-01

The study aimed to assess the association between childhood obesity and snacking. A total of 396 students in grades 4 to 6 enrolled in an elementary school in the Philippines were the participants in this study. Demographic profile; anthropometric measures of height, weight, body mass index; and information about snacking were gathered. Obese group had statistically more servings of sweetened drinks and low-quality snacks. Female obese subjects have statistically more servings at nighttime and greater total snack servings. For the whole cohort, the odds ratio of being overweight with high total snack servings was 2.12 (95% confidence interval = 1.25-3.62) whereas the odds ratio of being obese with calories obtained from snacking was 2.08 (95% confidence interval = 1.01-4.26). Nighttime snacks and bad-quality foods should be minimized. Moreover, reducing food portions at any snack time will protect children from being overweight. © 2013 APJPH.

Blood pressure and heart rate response to posteriorly directed pressure applied to the cervical spine in young, pain-free individuals: a randomized, repeated-measures, double-blind, placebo-controlled study.

PubMed

Yung, Emmanuel; Wong, Michael; Williams, Haddie; Mache, Kyle

2014-08-01

Randomized clinical trial. Objectives To compare the blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) response of healthy volunteers to posteriorly directed (anterior-to-posterior [AP]) pressure applied to the cervical spine versus placebo. Manual therapists employ cervical spine AP mobilizations for various cervical-shoulder pain conditions. However, there is a paucity of literature describing the procedure, cardiovascular response, and safety profile. Thirty-nine (25 female) healthy participants (mean ± SD age, 24.7 ± 1.9 years) were randomly assigned to 1 of 2 groups. Group 1 received a placebo, consisting of light touch applied to the right C6 costal process. Group 2 received AP pressure at the same location. Blood pressure and HR were measured prior to, during, and after the application of AP pressure. One-way analysis of variance and paired-difference statistics were used for data analysis. There was no statistically significant difference between groups for mean systolic BP, mean diastolic BP, and mean HR (P >.05) for all time points. Within-group comparisons indicated statistically significant differences between baseline and post-AP pressure HR (-2.8 bpm; 95% confidence interval: -4.6, -1.1) and between baseline and post-AP pressure systolic BP (-2.4 mmHg; 95% confidence interval: -3.7, -1.0) in the AP group, and between baseline and postplacebo systolic BP (-2.6 mmHg; 95% confidence interval: -4.2, -1.0) in the placebo group. No participants reported any adverse reactions or side effects within 24 hours of testing. AP pressure caused a statistically significant physiologic response that resulted in a minor drop in HR (without causing asystole or vasodepression) after the procedure, whereas this cardiovascular change did not occur for those in the placebo group. Within both groups, there was a small but statistically significant reduction in systolic BP following the procedure.

Confidence Intervals for the Between-Study Variance in Random Effects Meta-Analysis Using Generalised Cochran Heterogeneity Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jackson, Dan

2013-01-01

Statistical inference is problematic in the common situation in meta-analysis where the random effects model is fitted to just a handful of studies. In particular, the asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood provides a poor approximation, and Bayesian methods are sensitive to the prior specification. Hence, less efficient, but easily computed and…

A General Framework for Power Analysis to Detect the Moderator Effects in Two- and Three-Level Cluster Randomized Trials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dong, Nianbo; Spybrook, Jessaca; Kelcey, Ben

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to propose a general framework for power analyses to detect the moderator effects in two- and three-level cluster randomized trials (CRTs). The study specifically aims to: (1) develop the statistical formulations for calculating statistical power, minimum detectable effect size (MDES) and its confidence interval to…

High Impact = High Statistical Standards? Not Necessarily So

PubMed Central

Tressoldi, Patrizio E.; Giofré, David; Sella, Francesco; Cumming, Geoff

2013-01-01

What are the statistical practices of articles published in journals with a high impact factor? Are there differences compared with articles published in journals with a somewhat lower impact factor that have adopted editorial policies to reduce the impact of limitations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing? To investigate these questions, the current study analyzed all articles related to psychological, neuropsychological and medical issues, published in 2011 in four journals with high impact factors: Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, and three journals with relatively lower impact factors: Neuropsychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology-Applied and the American Journal of Public Health. Results show that Null Hypothesis Significance Testing without any use of confidence intervals, effect size, prospective power and model estimation, is the prevalent statistical practice used in articles published in Nature, 89%, followed by articles published in Science, 42%. By contrast, in all other journals, both with high and lower impact factors, most articles report confidence intervals and/or effect size measures. We interpreted these differences as consequences of the editorial policies adopted by the journal editors, which are probably the most effective means to improve the statistical practices in journals with high or low impact factors. PMID:23418533

High impact  =  high statistical standards? Not necessarily so.

PubMed

Tressoldi, Patrizio E; Giofré, David; Sella, Francesco; Cumming, Geoff

2013-01-01

What are the statistical practices of articles published in journals with a high impact factor? Are there differences compared with articles published in journals with a somewhat lower impact factor that have adopted editorial policies to reduce the impact of limitations of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing? To investigate these questions, the current study analyzed all articles related to psychological, neuropsychological and medical issues, published in 2011 in four journals with high impact factors: Science, Nature, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, and three journals with relatively lower impact factors: Neuropsychology, Journal of Experimental Psychology-Applied and the American Journal of Public Health. Results show that Null Hypothesis Significance Testing without any use of confidence intervals, effect size, prospective power and model estimation, is the prevalent statistical practice used in articles published in Nature, 89%, followed by articles published in Science, 42%. By contrast, in all other journals, both with high and lower impact factors, most articles report confidence intervals and/or effect size measures. We interpreted these differences as consequences of the editorial policies adopted by the journal editors, which are probably the most effective means to improve the statistical practices in journals with high or low impact factors.

A Statistical Method for Synthesizing Mediation Analyses Using the Product of Coefficient Approach Across Multiple Trials

PubMed Central

Huang, Shi; MacKinnon, David P.; Perrino, Tatiana; Gallo, Carlos; Cruden, Gracelyn; Brown, C Hendricks

2016-01-01

Mediation analysis often requires larger sample sizes than main effect analysis to achieve the same statistical power. Combining results across similar trials may be the only practical option for increasing statistical power for mediation analysis in some situations. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate: 1) marginal means for mediation path a, the relation of the independent variable to the mediator; 2) marginal means for path b, the relation of the mediator to the outcome, across multiple trials; and 3) the between-trial level variance-covariance matrix based on a bivariate normal distribution. We present the statistical theory and an R computer program to combine regression coefficients from multiple trials to estimate a combined mediated effect and confidence interval under a random effects model. Values of coefficients a and b, along with their standard errors from each trial are the input for the method. This marginal likelihood based approach with Monte Carlo confidence intervals provides more accurate inference than the standard meta-analytic approach. We discuss computational issues, apply the method to two real-data examples and make recommendations for the use of the method in different settings. PMID:28239330

What Teachers Should Know About the Bootstrap: Resampling in the Undergraduate Statistics Curriculum

PubMed Central

Hesterberg, Tim C.

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping has enormous potential in statistics education and practice, but there are subtle issues and ways to go wrong. For example, the common combination of nonparametric bootstrapping and bootstrap percentile confidence intervals is less accurate than using t-intervals for small samples, though more accurate for larger samples. My goals in this article are to provide a deeper understanding of bootstrap methods—how they work, when they work or not, and which methods work better—and to highlight pedagogical issues. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [Received December 2014. Revised August 2015] PMID:27019512

Long-term Results of an Obesity Program in an Ethnically Diverse Pediatric Population

PubMed Central

Nowicka, Paulina; Shaw, Melissa; Yu, Sunkyung; Dziura, James; Chavent, Georgia; O'Malley, Grace; Serrecchia, John B.; Tamborlane, William V.; Caprio, Sonia

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine if beneficial effects of a weight-management program could be sustained for up to 24 months in a randomized trial in an ethnically diverse obese population. PATIENTS AND METHODS: There were 209 obese children (BMI > 95th percentile), ages 8 to 16 of mixed ethnic backgrounds randomly assigned to the intensive lifestyle intervention or clinic control group. The control group received counseling every 6 months, and the intervention group received a family-based program, which included exercise, nutrition, and behavior modification. Lifestyle intervention sessions occurred twice weekly for the first 6 months, then twice monthly for the second 6 months; for the last 12 months there was no active intervention. There were 174 children who completed the 12 months of the randomized trial. Follow-up data were available for 76 of these children at 24 months. There were no statistical differences in dropout rates among ethnic groups or in any other aspects. RESULTS: Treatment effect was sustained at 24 months in the intervention versus control group for BMI z score (−0.16 [95% confidence interval: −0.23 to −0.09]), BMI (−2.8 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval: −4.0–1.6 kg/m2]), percent body fat (−4.2% [95% confidence interval: −6.4% to −2.0%]), total body fat mass (−5.8 kg [95% confidence interval: −9.1 kg to −2.6 kg]), total cholesterol (−13.0 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −21.7 mg/dL to −4.2 mg/dL]), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (−10.4 mg/dL [95% confidence interval: −18.3 mg/dL to −2.4 mg/dL]), and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (−2.05 [95% confidence interval: −2.48 to −1.75]). CONCLUSIONS: This study, unprecedented because of the high degree of obesity and ethnically diverse backgrounds of children, reveals that benefits of an intensive lifestyle program can be sustained 12 months after completing the active intervention phase. PMID:21300674

An empirical Bayes method for updating inferences in analysis of quantitative trait loci using information from related genome scans.

PubMed

Zhang, Kui; Wiener, Howard; Beasley, Mark; George, Varghese; Amos, Christopher I; Allison, David B

2006-08-01

Individual genome scans for quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping often suffer from low statistical power and imprecise estimates of QTL location and effect. This lack of precision yields large confidence intervals for QTL location, which are problematic for subsequent fine mapping and positional cloning. In prioritizing areas for follow-up after an initial genome scan and in evaluating the credibility of apparent linkage signals, investigators typically examine the results of other genome scans of the same phenotype and informally update their beliefs about which linkage signals in their scan most merit confidence and follow-up via a subjective-intuitive integration approach. A method that acknowledges the wisdom of this general paradigm but formally borrows information from other scans to increase confidence in objectivity would be a benefit. We developed an empirical Bayes analytic method to integrate information from multiple genome scans. The linkage statistic obtained from a single genome scan study is updated by incorporating statistics from other genome scans as prior information. This technique does not require that all studies have an identical marker map or a common estimated QTL effect. The updated linkage statistic can then be used for the estimation of QTL location and effect. We evaluate the performance of our method by using extensive simulations based on actual marker spacing and allele frequencies from available data. Results indicate that the empirical Bayes method can account for between-study heterogeneity, estimate the QTL location and effect more precisely, and provide narrower confidence intervals than results from any single individual study. We also compared the empirical Bayes method with a method originally developed for meta-analysis (a closely related but distinct purpose). In the face of marked heterogeneity among studies, the empirical Bayes method outperforms the comparator.

Prevalence of orofacial clefts and risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in newborns at a university hospital from West Mexico.

PubMed

Corona-Rivera, Jorge Román; Bobadilla-Morales, Lucina; Corona-Rivera, Alfredo; Peña-Padilla, Christian; Olvera-Molina, Sandra; Orozco-Martín, Miriam A; García-Cruz, Diana; Ríos-Flores, Izabel M; Gómez-Rodríguez, Brian Gabriel; Rivas-Soto, Gemma; Pérez-Molina, J Jesús

2018-02-19

We determined the overall prevalence of typical orofacial clefts and the potential risks for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a university hospital from West México. For the prevalence, 227 liveborn infants with typical orofacial clefts were included from a total of 81,193 births occurred during the period 2009-2016 at the "Dr. Juan I. Menchaca" Civil Hospital of Guadalajara (Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico). To evaluate potential risks, a case-control study was conducted among 420 newborns, including only those 105 patients with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (cases), and 315 infants without birth defects (controls). Data were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression analysis expressed as adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals . The overall prevalence for typical orofacial clefts was 28 per 10,000 (95% confidence interval: 24.3-31.6), or 1 per 358 live births. The mean values for the prepregnancy weight, antepartum weight, and pre-pregnancy body mass index were statistically higher among the mothers of cases. Infants with nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate had a significantly higher risk for previous history of any type of congenital anomaly (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7; 95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.1), history of a relative with cleft lip with or without cleft palate (adjusted odds ratio: 19.6; 95% confidence interval: 8.2-47.1), and first-trimester exposures to progestogens (adjusted odds ratio: 6.8; 95% CI 1.8-25.3), hyperthermia (adjusted odds ratio: 3.4; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-10.6), and common cold (adjusted odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.1-11.9). These risks could have contributed to explain the high prevalence of orofacial clefts in our region of Mexico, emphasizing that except for history of relatives with cleft lip with or without cleft palate, most are susceptible of modification. © 2018 Japanese Teratology Society.

The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) as screening instruments for depression in patients with cancer.

PubMed

Hartung, Tim J; Friedrich, Michael; Johansen, Christoffer; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Faller, Herman; Koch, Uwe; Brähler, Elmar; Härter, Martin; Keller, Monika; Schulz, Holger; Wegscheider, Karl; Weis, Joachim; Mehnert, Anja

2017-11-01

Depression screening in patients with cancer is recommended by major clinical guidelines, although the evidence on individual screening tools is limited for this population. Here, the authors assess and compare the diagnostic accuracy of 2 established screening instruments: the depression modules of the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D), in a representative sample of patients with cancer. This multicenter study was conducted with a proportional, stratified, random sample of 2141 patients with cancer across all major tumor sites and treatment settings. The PHQ-9 and HADS-D were assessed and compared in terms of diagnostic accuracy and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition diagnosis of major depressive disorder using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Oncology as the criterion standard. The diagnostic accuracy of the PHQ-9 and HADS-D was fair for diagnosing major depressive disorder, with areas under the ROC curves of 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.79) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval, 0.74-0.77), respectively. The 2 questionnaires did not differ significantly in their areas under the ROC curves (P = .15). The PHQ-9 with a cutoff score ≥7 had the best screening performance, with a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 78%-89%) and a specificity of 61% (95% confidence interval, 59%-63%). The American Society of Clinical Oncology guideline screening algorithm had a sensitivity of 44% (95% confidence interval, 36%-51%) and a specificity of 84% (95% confidence interval, 83%-85%). In patients with cancer, the screening performance of both the PHQ-9 and the HADS-D was limited compared with a standardized diagnostic interview. Costs and benefits of routinely screening all patients with cancer should be weighed carefully. Cancer 2017;123:4236-4243. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

The prevalence of diagnosed tourette syndrome in Canada: A national population-based study.

PubMed

Yang, Jaeun; Hirsch, Lauren; Martino, Davide; Jette, Nathalie; Roberts, Jodie; Pringsheim, Tamara

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to examine: (1) the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome in Canada by sex in youth (aged 12-17) and adults and (2) socioeconomic factors in this population. The majority of epidemiological studies of tics have focused on children and youth, with few studies describing the prevalence of tics in adult populations. Canadian data on Tourette syndrome prevalence were derived from the Canadian Community Health Survey 2010 and 2011 cycles, a Statistics Canada population-based cross-sectional survey that collects information related to health status. We determined the prevalence of diagnosed Tourette syndrome and examined sociodemographic factors, including age, sex, education, income, employment, and birthplace. Overall, 122,884 Canadians participated in the surveys, with 122 participants diagnosed with Tourette syndrome. The prevalence of Tourette syndrome was higher in males in youth: 6.03 per 1000 (95% confidence interval: 3.24-8.81) in males versus 0.48 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.05-0.91) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 5.31 (95% confidence interval: 2.38-11.81). In adults, the prevalence of Tourette syndrome was 0.89 per 1,000 (95% confidence interval: 0.48-1.29) in males versus 0.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.16.0-0.71) in females, with a prevalence risk ratio of 1.93 (95% confidence interval: 1.21-3.08). After adjusting for age and sex, adults with Tourette syndrome had lower odds of receiving postsecondary education or being employed and higher odds of having income lower than the median and receiving governmental support. Data on the prevalence of Tourette syndrome in adults are scarce because most studies focus on children. Our data demonstrate a decreasing prevalence risk ratio for sex in adults compared to children. A diagnosis of Tourette syndrome is associated with lower education, income, and employment in adulthood. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Integrating palliative care across settings: A retrospective cohort study of a hospice home care programme for cancer patients.

PubMed

Tan, Woan Shin; Lee, Angel; Yang, Sze Yee; Chan, Susan; Wu, Huei Yaw; Ng, Charis Wei Ling; Heng, Bee Hoon

2016-07-01

Terminally ill patients at the end-of-life do transit between care settings due to their complex care needs. Problems of care fragmentation could result in poor quality of care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of an integrated hospice home care programme on acute care service usage and on the share of home deaths. The retrospective study cohort comprised patients who were diagnosed with cancer, had an expected prognosis of 1 year or less, and were referred to a home hospice. The intervention group comprised deceased patients enrolled in the integrated hospice home care programme between September 2012 and June 2014. The historical comparison group comprised deceased patients who were referred to other home hospices between January 2007 and January 2011. There were 321 cases and 593 comparator subjects. Relative to the comparator group, the share of hospital deaths was significantly lower for programme participants (12.1% versus 42.7%). After adjusting for differences at baseline, the intervention group had statistically significantly lower emergency department visits at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.38; 95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.47), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.61; 95% confidence interval: 0.54-0.69) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.77) prior to death. Similar results held for the number of hospitalisations at 30 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.48; 95% confidence interval: 0.40-0.58), 60 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.71; 95% confidence interval: 0.62-0.82) and 90 days (incidence rate ratio: 0.77; 95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.88) prior to death. Our results demonstrated that by integrating services between acute care and home hospice care, a reduction in acute care service usage could occur. © The Author(s) 2016.

Harnessing Multivariate Statistics for Ellipsoidal Data in Structural Geology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roberts, N.; Davis, J. R.; Titus, S.; Tikoff, B.

2015-12-01

Most structural geology articles do not state significance levels, report confidence intervals, or perform regressions to find trends. This is, in part, because structural data tend to include directions, orientations, ellipsoids, and tensors, which are not treatable by elementary statistics. We describe a full procedural methodology for the statistical treatment of ellipsoidal data. We use a reconstructed dataset of deformed ooids in Maryland from Cloos (1947) to illustrate the process. Normalized ellipsoids have five degrees of freedom and can be represented by a second order tensor. This tensor can be permuted into a five dimensional vector that belongs to a vector space and can be treated with standard multivariate statistics. Cloos made several claims about the distribution of deformation in the South Mountain fold, Maryland, and we reexamine two particular claims using hypothesis testing: 1) octahedral shear strain increases towards the axial plane of the fold; 2) finite strain orientation varies systematically along the trend of the axial trace as it bends with the Appalachian orogen. We then test the null hypothesis that the southern segment of South Mountain is the same as the northern segment. This test illustrates the application of ellipsoidal statistics, which combine both orientation and shape. We report confidence intervals for each test, and graphically display our results with novel plots. This poster illustrates the importance of statistics in structural geology, especially when working with noisy or small datasets.

Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

2017-01-01

Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

Emergency department patient satisfaction survey in Imam Reza Hospital, Tabriz, Iran

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Introduction Patient satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care and service delivery in the emergency department (ED). The objective of this study was to evaluate patient satisfaction with the Emergency Department of Imam Reza Hospital in Tabriz, Iran. Methods This study was carried out for 1 week during all shifts. Trained researchers used the standard Press Ganey questionnaire. Patients were asked to complete the questionnaire prior to discharge. The study questionnaire included 30 questions based on a Likert scale. Descriptive and analytical statistics were used throughout data analysis in a number of ways using SPSS version 13. Results Five hundred patients who attended our ED were included in this study. The highest satisfaction rates were observed in the terms of physicians' communication with patients (82.5%), security guards' courtesy (78.3%) and nurses' communication with patients (78%). The average waiting time for the first visit to a physician was 24 min 15 s. The overall satisfaction rate was dependent on the mean waiting time. The mean waiting time for a low rate of satisfaction was 47 min 11 s with a confidence interval of (19.31, 74.51), and for very good level of satisfaction it was 14 min 57 s with a (10.58, 18.57) confidence interval. Approximately 63% of the patients rated their general satisfaction with the emergency setting as good or very good. On the whole, the patient satisfaction rate at the lowest level was 7.7 with a confidence interval of (5.1, 10.4), and at the low level it was 5.8% with a confidence interval of (3.7, 7.9). The rate of satisfaction for the mediocre level was 23.3 with a confidence interval of (19.1, 27.5); for the high level of satisfaction it was 28.3 with a confidence interval of (22.9, 32.8), and for the very high level of satisfaction, this rate was 32.9% with a confidence interval of (28.4, 37.4). Conclusion The study findings indicated the need for evidence-based interventions in emergency care services in areas such as medical care, nursing care, courtesy of staff, physical comfort and waiting time. Efforts should focus on shortening waiting intervals and improving patients' perceptions about waiting in the ED, and also improving the overall cleanliness of the emergency room. PMID:21407998

Significance testing - are we ready yet to abandon its use?

PubMed

The, Bertram

2011-11-01

Understanding of the damaging effects of significance testing has steadily grown. Reporting p values without dichotomizing the result to be significant or not, is not the solution. Confidence intervals are better, but are troubled by a non-intuitive interpretation, and are often misused just to see whether the null value lies within the interval. Bayesian statistics provide an alternative which solves most of these problems. Although criticized for relying on subjective models, the interpretation of a Bayesian posterior probability is more intuitive than the interpretation of a p value, and seems to be closest to intuitive patterns of human decision making. Another alternative could be using confidence interval functions (or p value functions) to display a continuum of intervals at different levels of confidence around a point estimate. Thus, better alternatives to significance testing exist. The reluctance to abandon this practice might be both preference of clinging to old habits as well as the unfamiliarity with better methods. Authors might question if using less commonly exercised, though superior, techniques will be well received by the editors, reviewers and the readership. A joint effort will be needed to abandon significance testing in clinical research in the future.

A critique of the usefulness of inferential statistics in applied behavior analysis

PubMed Central

Hopkins, B. L.; Cole, Brian L.; Mason, Tina L.

1998-01-01

Researchers continue to recommend that applied behavior analysts use inferential statistics in making decisions about effects of independent variables on dependent variables. In many other approaches to behavioral science, inferential statistics are the primary means for deciding the importance of effects. Several possible uses of inferential statistics are considered. Rather than being an objective means for making decisions about effects, as is often claimed, inferential statistics are shown to be subjective. It is argued that the use of inferential statistics adds nothing to the complex and admittedly subjective nonstatistical methods that are often employed in applied behavior analysis. Attacks on inferential statistics that are being made, perhaps with increasing frequency, by those who are not behavior analysts, are discussed. These attackers are calling for banning the use of inferential statistics in research publications and commonly recommend that behavioral scientists should switch to using statistics aimed at interval estimation or the method of confidence intervals. Interval estimation is shown to be contrary to the fundamental assumption of behavior analysis that only individuals behave. It is recommended that authors who wish to publish the results of inferential statistics be asked to justify them as a means for helping us to identify any ways in which they may be useful. PMID:22478304

Dynamic association rules for gene expression data analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Shu-Chuan; Tsai, Tsung-Hsien; Chung, Cheng-Han; Li, Wen-Hsiung

2015-10-14

The purpose of gene expression analysis is to look for the association between regulation of gene expression levels and phenotypic variations. This association based on gene expression profile has been used to determine whether the induction/repression of genes correspond to phenotypic variations including cell regulations, clinical diagnoses and drug development. Statistical analyses on microarray data have been developed to resolve gene selection issue. However, these methods do not inform us of causality between genes and phenotypes. In this paper, we propose the dynamic association rule algorithm (DAR algorithm) which helps ones to efficiently select a subset of significant genes for subsequent analysis. The DAR algorithm is based on association rules from market basket analysis in marketing. We first propose a statistical way, based on constructing a one-sided confidence interval and hypothesis testing, to determine if an association rule is meaningful. Based on the proposed statistical method, we then developed the DAR algorithm for gene expression data analysis. The method was applied to analyze four microarray datasets and one Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) dataset: the Mice Apo A1 dataset, the whole genome expression dataset of mouse embryonic stem cells, expression profiling of the bone marrow of Leukemia patients, Microarray Quality Control (MAQC) data set and the RNA-seq dataset of a mouse genomic imprinting study. A comparison of the proposed method with the t-test on the expression profiling of the bone marrow of Leukemia patients was conducted. We developed a statistical way, based on the concept of confidence interval, to determine the minimum support and minimum confidence for mining association relationships among items. With the minimum support and minimum confidence, one can find significant rules in one single step. The DAR algorithm was then developed for gene expression data analysis. Four gene expression datasets showed that the proposed DAR algorithm not only was able to identify a set of differentially expressed genes that largely agreed with that of other methods, but also provided an efficient and accurate way to find influential genes of a disease. In the paper, the well-established association rule mining technique from marketing has been successfully modified to determine the minimum support and minimum confidence based on the concept of confidence interval and hypothesis testing. It can be applied to gene expression data to mine significant association rules between gene regulation and phenotype. The proposed DAR algorithm provides an efficient way to find influential genes that underlie the phenotypic variance.

Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agricultural systems models such as RZWQM2 are complex and have numerous parameters that are unknown and difficult to estimate. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals...

LONG TERM MONITORING FOR NATURAL ATTENUATION

EPA Science Inventory

We have good statistical methods to: (1) determine whether concentrations of a contaminant are attenuating over time, (2) determine the rate of attenuation and confidence interval on the rate, and (3) determine whether concentrations have met a particular clean up goal. We do no...

Is it possible to identify a risk factor condition of hypocalcemia in patients candidates to thyroidectomy for benign disease?

PubMed

Del Rio, Paolo; Iapichino, Gioacchino; De Simone, Belinda; Bezer, Lamia; Arcuri, MariaFrancesca; Sianesi, Mario

2010-01-01

Hypocalcaemia is the most frequent complication after total thyroidectomy. The incidence of postoperative hypocalcaemia is reported with different percentages in literature. We report 227 patients undergoing surgery for benign thyroid disease. After obtaining patient's informed consent, we collected and analyzed prospectively the following data: calcium serum levels pre and postoperative in the first 24 hours after surgery according to sex, age, duration of surgery, number of parathyroids identified by the surgeon, surgical technique (open and minimally invasive video-assisted thyroidectomy, i.e., MIVAT). We have considered cases treated consecutively from the same two experienced endocrine surgeons. Hypocalcaemia is assumed when the value of serum calcium is below 7.5 mg/dL. Pre-and post-operative mean serum calcium, with confidence intervals at 99% divided by sex, revealed a statistically significant difference in the ANOVA test (p < 0.01) in terms of incidence. Female sex has higher incidence of hypocalcemia. The evaluation of the mean serum calcium in pre-and post-operative period, with confidence intervals at 95%, depending on the number of identified parathyroid glands by surgeon, showed that the result is not correlated with values of postoperative serum calcium. Age and pre-and postoperative serum calcium values with confidence intervals at 99% based on sex of patients, didn't show statistically significant differences. We haven't highlighted a significant difference in postoperative hypocalcemia in patients treated with conventional thyroidectomy versus MIVAT. A difference in pre- and postoperative mean serum calcium occurs in all patients surgically treated. The only statistical meaningful risk factor for hypocalcemia has been the female sex.

Probabilistic properties of the Curve Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutkowska, Agnieszka; Banasik, Kazimierz; Kohnova, Silvia; Karabova, Beata

2013-04-01

The determination of the Curve Number (CN) is fundamental for the hydrological rainfall-runoff SCS-CN method which assesses the runoff volume in small catchments. The CN depends on geomorphologic and physiographic properties of the catchment and traditionally it is assumed to be constant for each catchment. Many practitioners and researchers observe, however, that the parameter is characterized by a variability. This sometimes causes inconsistency in the river discharge prediction using the SCS-CN model. Hence probabilistic and statistical methods are advisable to investigate the CN as a random variable and to complement and improve the deterministic model. The results that will be presented contain determination of the probabilistic properties of the CNs for various Slovakian and Polish catchments using statistical methods. The detailed study concerns the description of empirical distributions (characteristics, QQ-plots and coefficients of goodness of fit, histograms), testing of the statistical hypotheses about some theoretical distributions (Kolmogorov-Smirnow, Anderson-Darling, Cramer-von Mises, χ2, Shapiro-Wilk), construction of confidence intervals and comparisons among catchments. The relationship between confidence intervals and the ARC soil classification will also be performed. The comparison between the border values of the confidence intervals and the ARC I and ARC III conditions is crucial for further modeling. The study of the response of the catchment to the stormy rainfall depth when the variability of the CN arises is also of special interest. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the contribution has been initiated by first Author research visit to Technical University of Bratislava in 2012 within a STSM of the COST Action ES0901. Data used here have been provided by research project no. N N305 396238 founded by PL-Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The support provided by the organizations is gratefully acknowledged.

Prevalence of tics in schoolchildren in central Spain: a population-based study.

PubMed

Cubo, Esther; Gabriel y Galán, José María Trejo; Villaverde, Vanesa Ausín; Velasco, Sara Sáez; Benito, Vanesa Delgado; Macarrón, Jesús Vicente; Guevara, José Cordero; Louis, Elan D; Benito-León, Julián

2011-08-01

Tic disorders constitute a neurodevelopmental disorder of childhood. This study sought to determine the prevalence of tic disorders in a school-based sample. A randomized sample of 1158 schoolchildren, based on clusters (classrooms) in the province of Burgos (Spain), was identified on a stratified sampling frame combining types of educational center and setting (mainstream schools and special education), using a two-phase approach (screening and diagnosis ascertainment by a neurologist). Tics with/without impairment criterion were diagnosed according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders criteria. In mainstream schools, tics were observed in 125/741 students (16.86%; 95% confidence interval, 14.10-19.63), and were more frequent in boys (87/448, 19.42%; 95% confidence interval, 15.64-23.19) compared with girls (38/293, 12.96%; 95% confidence interval, 8.95-16.98; P = 0.03). In special education centers, tics disorders were observed in 11/54 of children (20.37%; 95% confidence interval, 8.70-32.03). Overall, tics with impairment criteria were less frequent than tics without impairment criteria (4.65% vs 11.85%, P < 0.0001). The most frequent diagnoses involved chronic motor tics (6.07%) and Tourette syndrome (5.26%). Tic disorders are common in childhood, and the use or nonuse of impairment criteria exerts a significant impact on tic prevalence estimates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations of High-Grade Glioma With Glioma Risk Alleles and Histories of Allergy and Smoking

PubMed Central

Lachance, Daniel H.; Yang, Ping; Johnson, Derek R.; Decker, Paul A.; Kollmeyer, Thomas M.; McCoy, Lucie S.; Rice, Terri; Xiao, Yuanyuan; Ali-Osman, Francis; Wang, Frances; Stoddard, Shawn M.; Sprau, Debra J.; Kosel, Matthew L.; Wiencke, John K.; Wiemels, Joseph L.; Patoka, Joseph S.; Davis, Faith; McCarthy, Bridget; Rynearson, Amanda L.; Worra, Joel B.; Fridley, Brooke L.; O’Neill, Brian Patrick; Buckner, Jan C.; Il’yasova, Dora; Jenkins, Robert B.; Wrensch, Margaret R.

2011-01-01

Glioma risk has consistently been inversely associated with allergy history but not with smoking history despite putative biologic plausibility. Data from 855 high-grade glioma cases and 1,160 controls from 4 geographic regions of the United States during 1997–2008 were analyzed for interactions between allergy and smoking histories and inherited variants in 5 established glioma risk regions: 5p15.3 (TERT), 8q24.21 (CCDC26/MLZE), 9p21.3 (CDKN2B), 11q23.3 (PHLDB1/DDX6), and 20q13.3 (RTEL1). The inverse relation between allergy and glioma was stronger among those who did not (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.28, 0.58) versus those who did (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.76, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.97; Pinteraction = 0.02) carry the 9p21.3 risk allele. However, the inverse association with allergy was stronger among those who carried (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.44, 95% confidence interval: 0.29, 0.68) versus those who did not carry (odds ratioallergy-glioma = 0.68, 95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.86) the 20q13.3 glioma risk allele, but this interaction was not statistically significant (P = 0.14). No relation was observed between glioma risk and smoking (odds ratio = 0.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.77, 1.10; P = 0.37), and there were no interactions for glioma risk of smoking history with any of the risk alleles. The authors’ observations are consistent with a recent report that the inherited glioma risk variants in chromosome regions 9p21.3 and 20q13.3 may modify the inverse association of allergy and glioma. PMID:21742680

Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

2011-04-15

The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

Impact of Time to Treatment Initiation in Patients with Human Papillomavirus-positive and -negative Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Grønhøj, C; Jensen, D; Dehlendorff, C; Nørregaard, C; Andersen, E; Specht, L; Charabi, B; von Buchwald, C

2018-06-01

The distinct difference in disease phenotype of human papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) and -negative (HPV-) oropharyngeal squamous cell cancer (OPSCC) patients might also be apparent when assessing the effect of time to treatment initiation (TTI). We assessed the overall survival and progression-free survival (PFS) effect from increasing TTI for HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC patients. We examined patients who received curative-intended therapy for OPSCC in eastern Denmark between 2000 and 2014. TTI was the number of days from diagnosis to the initiation of curative treatment. Overall survival and PFS were measured from the start of treatment and estimated with the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated with Cox proportional hazard regression. At a median follow-up of 3.6 years (interquartile range 1.86-6.07 years), 1177 patients were included (59% HPV+). In the adjusted analysis for the HPV+ and HPV- patient population, TTI influenced overall survival and PFS, most evident in the HPV- group, where TTI >60 days statistically significantly influenced overall survival but not PFS (overall survival: hazard ratio 1.60; 95% confidence interval 1.04-2.45; PFS: hazard ratio 1.46; 95% confidence interval 0.96-2.22). For patients with a TTI >60 days in the HPV+ group, TTI affected overall survival and PFS similarly, with slightly lower hazard ratio estimates of 1.44 (95% confidence interval 0.83-2.51) and 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.70-1.88), respectively. For patients treated for a HPV+ or HPV- OPSCC, TTI affects outcome, with the strongest effect for overall survival among HPV- patients. Reducing TTI is an important tool to improve the prognosis. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Persistent opioid use following Cesarean delivery: patterns and predictors among opioid naïve women

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T.; Franklin, Jessica M.; Bykov, Katsiaryna; Avorn, Jerry; Shrank, William H.; Brennan, Troyen A.; Landon, Joan E.; Rathmell, James P.; Huybrechts, Krista F.; Fischer, Michael A.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.

2016-01-01

Background The incidence of opioid-related death in women has increased five-fold over the past decade. For many women, their initial opioid exposure will occur in the setting of routine medical care. Approximately 1 in 3 deliveries in the U.S. is by Cesarean and opioids are commonly prescribed for post-surgical pain management. Objective The objective of this study was to determine the risk that opioid naïve women prescribed opioids after Cesarean delivery will subsequently become consistent prescription opioid users in the year following delivery, and to identify predictors for this behavior. Study Design We identified women in a database of commercial insurance beneficiaries who underwent Cesarean delivery and who were opioid-naïve in the year prior to delivery. To identify persistent users of opioids, we used trajectory models, which group together patients with similar patterns of medication filling during follow-up, based on patterns of opioid dispensing in the year following Cesarean delivery. We then constructed a multivariable logistic regression model to identify independent risk factors for membership in the persistent user group. Results 285 of 80,127 (0.36%, 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 0.40), opioid-naïve women became persistent opioid users (identified using trajectory models based on monthly patterns of opioid dispensing) following Cesarean delivery. Demographics and baseline comorbidity predicted such use with moderate discrimination (c statistic = 0.73). Significant predictors included a history of cocaine abuse (risk 7.41%; adjusted odds ratio 6.11, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 36.31) and other illicit substance abuse (2.36%; adjusted odds ratio 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 6.91), tobacco use (1.45%; adjusted odds ratio 3.04, 95% confidence interval 2.03 to 4.55), back pain (0.69%; adjusted odds ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.33 to 2.29), migraines (0.91%; adjusted odds ratio 2.14, 95% confidence interval 1.58 to 2.90), antidepressant use (1.34%; adjusted odds ratio 3.19, 95% confidence interval 2.41 to 4.23) and benzodiazepine use (1.99%; adjusted odds ratio 3.72, 95% confidence interval 2.64 to 5.26) in the year prior to Cesarean delivery. Conclusions A very small proportion of opioid-naïve women (approximately 1 in 300) become persistent prescription opioid users following Cesarean delivery. Pre-existing psychiatric comorbidity, certain pain conditions, and substance use/abuse conditions identifiable at the time of initial opioid prescribing were predictors of persistent use. PMID:26996986

Using and Evaluating Resampling Simulations in SPSS and Excel.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Brad

2003-01-01

Describes and evaluates three computer-assisted simulations used with Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) and Microsoft Excel. Designed the simulations to reinforce and enhance student understanding of sampling distributions, confidence intervals, and significance tests. Reports evaluations revealed improved student comprehension of…

Efficient bootstrap estimates for tail statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, Øyvind; Aarnes, Ole Johan

2017-03-01

Bootstrap resamples can be used to investigate the tail of empirical distributions as well as return value estimates from the extremal behaviour of the sample. Specifically, the confidence intervals on return value estimates or bounds on in-sample tail statistics can be obtained using bootstrap techniques. However, non-parametric bootstrapping from the entire sample is expensive. It is shown here that it suffices to bootstrap from a small subset consisting of the highest entries in the sequence to make estimates that are essentially identical to bootstraps from the entire sample. Similarly, bootstrap estimates of confidence intervals of threshold return estimates are found to be well approximated by using a subset consisting of the highest entries. This has practical consequences in fields such as meteorology, oceanography and hydrology where return values are calculated from very large gridded model integrations spanning decades at high temporal resolution or from large ensembles of independent and identically distributed model fields. In such cases the computational savings are substantial.

Prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels on long-term mortality: insight from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III).

PubMed

Doran, Bethany; Guo, Yu; Xu, Jinfeng; Weintraub, Howard; Mora, Samia; Maron, David J; Bangalore, Sripal

2014-08-12

National and international guidelines recommend fasting lipid panel measurement for risk stratification of patients for prevention of cardiovascular events. However, the prognostic value of fasting versus nonfasting low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is uncertain. Patients enrolled in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES-III), a nationally representative cross-sectional survey performed from 1988 to 1994, were stratified on the basis of fasting status (≥8 or <8 hours) and followed for a mean of 14.0 (±0.22) years. Propensity score matching was used to assemble fasting and nonfasting cohorts with similar baseline characteristics. The risk of outcomes as a function of LDL-C and fasting status was assessed with the use of receiver operating characteristic curves and bootstrapping methods. The interaction between fasting status and LDL-C was assessed with Cox proportional hazards modeling. Primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. One-to-one matching based on propensity score yielded 4299 pairs of fasting and nonfasting individuals. For the primary outcome, fasting LDL-C yielded prognostic value similar to that for nonfasting LDL-C (C statistic=0.59 [95% confidence interval, 0.57-0.61] versus 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.60]; P=0.73), and LDL-C by fasting status interaction term in the Cox proportional hazards model was not significant (Pinteraction=0.11). Similar results were seen for the secondary outcome (fasting versus nonfasting C statistic=0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66] versus 0.62 [95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.66]; P=0.96; Pinteraction=0.34). Nonfasting LDL-C has prognostic value similar to that of fasting LDL-C. National and international agencies should consider reevaluating the recommendation that patients fast before obtaining a lipid panel. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Clinical evaluation of an inspiratory impedance threshold device during standard cardiopulmonary resuscitation in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Aufderheide, Tom P; Pirrallo, Ronald G; Provo, Terry A; Lurie, Keith G

2005-04-01

To determine whether an impedance threshold device, designed to enhance circulation, would increase acute resuscitation rates for patients in cardiac arrest receiving conventional manual cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Prospective, randomized, double-blind, intention-to-treat. Out-of-hospital trial conducted in the Milwaukee, WI, emergency medical services system. Adults in cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac etiology. On arrival of advanced life support, patients were treated with standard cardiopulmonary resuscitation combined with either an active or a sham impedance threshold device. We measured safety and efficacy of the impedance threshold device; the primary end point was intensive care unit admission. Statistical analyses performed included the chi-square test and multivariate regression analysis. One hundred sixteen patients were treated with a sham impedance threshold device, and 114 patients were treated with an active impedance threshold device. Overall intensive care unit admission rates were 17% with the sham device vs. 25% in the active impedance threshold device (p = .13; odds ratio, 1.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.87, 3.10). Patients in the subgroup presenting with pulseless electrical activity had intensive care unit admission and 24-hr survival rates of 20% and 12% in sham (n = 25) vs. 52% and 30% in active impedance threshold device groups (n = 27) (p = .018, odds ratio, 4.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.28, 14.5, and p = .12, odds ratio, 3.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.74, 13.0, respectively). A post hoc analysis of patients with pulseless electrical activity at any time during the cardiac arrest revealed that intensive care unit and 24-hr survival rates were 20% and 11% in the sham (n = 56) vs. 41% and 27% in the active impedance threshold device groups (n = 49) (p = .018, odds ratio, 2.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.19, 6.67, and p = .037, odds ratio, 3.01; 95% confidence interval, 1.07, 8.96, respectively). There were no statistically significant differences in outcomes for patients presenting in ventricular fibrillation and asystole. Adverse event and complication rates were also similar. During this first clinical trial of the impedance threshold device during standard cardiopulmonary resuscitation, use of the new device more than doubled short-term survival rates in patients presenting with pulseless electrical activity. A larger clinical trial is underway to determine the potential longer term benefits of the impedance threshold device in cardiac arrest.

Toxoplasma gondii exposure and epilepsy: A matched case-control study in a public hospital in northern Mexico.

PubMed

Alvarado-Esquivel, Cosme; Rico-Almochantaf, Yazmin Del Rosario; Hernández-Tinoco, Jesús; Quiñones-Canales, Gerardo; Sánchez-Anguiano, Luis Francisco; Torres-González, Jorge; Ramírez-Valles, Eda Guadalupe; Minjarez-Veloz, Andrea

2018-01-01

This study aimed to determine the association between infection with Toxoplasma gondii and epilepsy in patients attended to in a public hospital in the northern Mexican city of Durango. We performed an age- and gender-matched case-control study of 99 patients suffering from epilepsy and 99 without epilepsy. Sera of participants were analyzed for anti- T. gondii IgG and IgM antibodies using commercially available enzyme-linked immunoassays. Seropositive samples to T. gondii were further analyzed for detection of T. gondii DNA by polymerase chain reaction. Anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 10 (10.1%) of the 99 cases and in 6 (6.1%) of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.74; 95% confidence interval: 0.60-4.99; p = 0.43). High (> 150 IU/mL) levels of anti- T. gondii IgG antibodies were found in 6 of the 99 cases and in 4 of the 99 controls (odds ratio = 1.53; 95% confidence interval: 0.41-5.60; p = 0.74). Anti- T. gondii IgM antibodies were found in 2 of the 10 IgG seropositive cases, and in 2 of the 6 IgG seropositive controls (odds ratio = 0.50; 95% confidence interval: 0.05-4.97; p = 0.60). T. gondii DNA was not found in any of the 10 anti- T. gondii IgG positive patients. Bivariate analysis of IgG seropositivity to T. gondii and International Statistical Classification of Diseases and related Health Problems, 10th Edition codes of epilepsy showed an association between seropositivity and G40.1 code (odds ratio = 22.0; 95% confidence interval: 2.59-186.5; p = 0.008). Logistic regression analysis showed an association between T. gondii infection and consumption of goat meat (odds ratio = 6.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.22-34.64; p = 0.02), unwashed raw vegetables (odds ratio = 26.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.61-265.23; p = 0.006), and tobacco use (odds ratio = 6.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.06-36.66; p = 0.04). Results suggest that T. gondii infection does not increase the risk of epilepsy in our setting; however, infection might be linked to specific types of epilepsy. Factors associated with T. gondii infection found in this study may aid in the design of preventive measures against toxoplasmosis.

"Magnitude-based inference": a statistical review.

PubMed

Welsh, Alan H; Knight, Emma J

2015-04-01

We consider "magnitude-based inference" and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how "magnitude-based inference" is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. We show that "magnitude-based inference" is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with "magnitude-based inference" and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using "magnitude-based inference," a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis.

SPSS macros to compare any two fitted values from a regression model.

PubMed

Weaver, Bruce; Dubois, Sacha

2012-12-01

In regression models with first-order terms only, the coefficient for a given variable is typically interpreted as the change in the fitted value of Y for a one-unit increase in that variable, with all other variables held constant. Therefore, each regression coefficient represents the difference between two fitted values of Y. But the coefficients represent only a fraction of the possible fitted value comparisons that might be of interest to researchers. For many fitted value comparisons that are not captured by any of the regression coefficients, common statistical software packages do not provide the standard errors needed to compute confidence intervals or carry out statistical tests-particularly in more complex models that include interactions, polynomial terms, or regression splines. We describe two SPSS macros that implement a matrix algebra method for comparing any two fitted values from a regression model. The !OLScomp and !MLEcomp macros are for use with models fitted via ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood estimation, respectively. The output from the macros includes the standard error of the difference between the two fitted values, a 95% confidence interval for the difference, and a corresponding statistical test with its p-value.

Point and interval estimation of pollinator importance: a study using pollination data of Silene caroliniana.

PubMed

Reynolds, Richard J; Fenster, Charles B

2008-05-01

Pollinator importance, the product of visitation rate and pollinator effectiveness, is a descriptive parameter of the ecology and evolution of plant-pollinator interactions. Naturally, sources of its variation should be investigated, but the SE of pollinator importance has never been properly reported. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation study and a result from mathematical statistics on the variance of the product of two random variables are used to estimate the mean and confidence limits of pollinator importance for three visitor species of the wildflower, Silene caroliniana. Both methods provided similar estimates of mean pollinator importance and its interval if the sample size of the visitation and effectiveness datasets were comparatively large. These approaches allowed us to determine that bumblebee importance was significantly greater than clearwing hawkmoth, which was significantly greater than beefly. The methods could be used to statistically quantify temporal and spatial variation in pollinator importance of particular visitor species. The approaches may be extended for estimating the variance of more than two random variables. However, unless the distribution function of the resulting statistic is known, the simulation approach is preferable for calculating the parameter's confidence limits.

Principles of Statistics: What the Sports Medicine Professional Needs to Know.

PubMed

Riemann, Bryan L; Lininger, Monica R

2018-07-01

Understanding the results and statistics reported in original research remains a large challenge for many sports medicine practitioners and, in turn, may be among one of the biggest barriers to integrating research into sports medicine practice. The purpose of this article is to provide minimal essentials a sports medicine practitioner needs to know about interpreting statistics and research results to facilitate the incorporation of the latest evidence into practice. Topics covered include the difference between statistical significance and clinical meaningfulness; effect sizes and confidence intervals; reliability statistics, including the minimal detectable difference and minimal important difference; and statistical power. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Equivalent statistics and data interpretation.

PubMed

Francis, Gregory

2017-08-01

Recent reform efforts in psychological science have led to a plethora of choices for scientists to analyze their data. A scientist making an inference about their data must now decide whether to report a p value, summarize the data with a standardized effect size and its confidence interval, report a Bayes Factor, or use other model comparison methods. To make good choices among these options, it is necessary for researchers to understand the characteristics of the various statistics used by the different analysis frameworks. Toward that end, this paper makes two contributions. First, it shows that for the case of a two-sample t test with known sample sizes, many different summary statistics are mathematically equivalent in the sense that they are based on the very same information in the data set. When the sample sizes are known, the p value provides as much information about a data set as the confidence interval of Cohen's d or a JZS Bayes factor. Second, this equivalence means that different analysis methods differ only in their interpretation of the empirical data. At first glance, it might seem that mathematical equivalence of the statistics suggests that it does not matter much which statistic is reported, but the opposite is true because the appropriateness of a reported statistic is relative to the inference it promotes. Accordingly, scientists should choose an analysis method appropriate for their scientific investigation. A direct comparison of the different inferential frameworks provides some guidance for scientists to make good choices and improve scientific practice.

A Call for Statistical Reform in EAQ

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrd, Jimmy K.

2007-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to review research published by Educational Administration Quarterly (EAQ) during the past 10 years to determine if confidence intervals and effect sizes were being reported as recommended by the American Psychological Association (APA) Publication Manual. Research Design: The author examined 49 volumes of…

Effect-Size Measures and Meta-Analytic Thinking in Counseling Psychology Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Henson, Robin K.

2006-01-01

Effect sizes are critical to result interpretation and synthesis across studies. Although statistical significance testing has historically dominated the determination of result importance, modern views emphasize the role of effect sizes and confidence intervals. This article accessibly discusses how to calculate and interpret the effect sizes…

ON THE SUBJECT OF HYPOTHESIS TESTING

PubMed Central

Ugoni, Antony

1993-01-01

In this paper, the definition of a statistical hypothesis is discussed, and the considerations which need to be addressed when testing a hypothesis. In particular, the p-value, significance level, and power of a test are reviewed. Finally, the often quoted confidence interval is given a brief introduction. PMID:17989768

Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Du, Yunfei

This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

2007-01-01

A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

Reflexion on linear regression trip production modelling method for ensuring good model quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suprayitno, Hitapriya; Ratnasari, Vita

2017-11-01

Transport Modelling is important. For certain cases, the conventional model still has to be used, in which having a good trip production model is capital. A good model can only be obtained from a good sample. Two of the basic principles of a good sampling is having a sample capable to represent the population characteristics and capable to produce an acceptable error at a certain confidence level. It seems that this principle is not yet quite understood and used in trip production modeling. Therefore, investigating the Trip Production Modelling practice in Indonesia and try to formulate a better modeling method for ensuring the Model Quality is necessary. This research result is presented as follows. Statistics knows a method to calculate span of prediction value at a certain confidence level for linear regression, which is called Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. The common modeling practice uses R2 as the principal quality measure, the sampling practice varies and not always conform to the sampling principles. An experiment indicates that small sample is already capable to give excellent R2 value and sample composition can significantly change the model. Hence, good R2 value, in fact, does not always mean good model quality. These lead to three basic ideas for ensuring good model quality, i.e. reformulating quality measure, calculation procedure, and sampling method. A quality measure is defined as having a good R2 value and a good Confidence Interval of Predicted Value. Calculation procedure must incorporate statistical calculation method and appropriate statistical tests needed. A good sampling method must incorporate random well distributed stratified sampling with a certain minimum number of samples. These three ideas need to be more developed and tested.

Statistical variability and confidence intervals for planar dose QA pass rates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bailey, Daniel W.; Nelms, Benjamin E.; Attwood, Kristopher

Purpose: The most common metric for comparing measured to calculated dose, such as for pretreatment quality assurance of intensity-modulated photon fields, is a pass rate (%) generated using percent difference (%Diff), distance-to-agreement (DTA), or some combination of the two (e.g., gamma evaluation). For many dosimeters, the grid of analyzed points corresponds to an array with a low areal density of point detectors. In these cases, the pass rates for any given comparison criteria are not absolute but exhibit statistical variability that is a function, in part, on the detector sampling geometry. In this work, the authors analyze the statistics ofmore » various methods commonly used to calculate pass rates and propose methods for establishing confidence intervals for pass rates obtained with low-density arrays. Methods: Dose planes were acquired for 25 prostate and 79 head and neck intensity-modulated fields via diode array and electronic portal imaging device (EPID), and matching calculated dose planes were created via a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates for each dose plane pair (both centered to the beam central axis) were calculated with several common comparison methods: %Diff/DTA composite analysis and gamma evaluation, using absolute dose comparison with both local and global normalization. Specialized software was designed to selectively sample the measured EPID response (very high data density) down to discrete points to simulate low-density measurements. The software was used to realign the simulated detector grid at many simulated positions with respect to the beam central axis, thereby altering the low-density sampled grid. Simulations were repeated with 100 positional iterations using a 1 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, a 2 detector/cm{sup 2} uniform grid, and similar random detector grids. For each simulation, %/DTA composite pass rates were calculated with various %Diff/DTA criteria and for both local and global %Diff normalization techniques. Results: For the prostate and head/neck cases studied, the pass rates obtained with gamma analysis of high density dose planes were 2%-5% higher than respective %/DTA composite analysis on average (ranging as high as 11%), depending on tolerances and normalization. Meanwhile, the pass rates obtained via local normalization were 2%-12% lower than with global maximum normalization on average (ranging as high as 27%), depending on tolerances and calculation method. Repositioning of simulated low-density sampled grids leads to a distribution of possible pass rates for each measured/calculated dose plane pair. These distributions can be predicted using a binomial distribution in order to establish confidence intervals that depend largely on the sampling density and the observed pass rate (i.e., the degree of difference between measured and calculated dose). These results can be extended to apply to 3D arrays of detectors, as well. Conclusions: Dose plane QA analysis can be greatly affected by choice of calculation metric and user-defined parameters, and so all pass rates should be reported with a complete description of calculation method. Pass rates for low-density arrays are subject to statistical uncertainty (vs. the high-density pass rate), but these sampling errors can be modeled using statistical confidence intervals derived from the sampled pass rate and detector density. Thus, pass rates for low-density array measurements should be accompanied by a confidence interval indicating the uncertainty of each pass rate.« less

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery.

PubMed

Garimella, Pranav S; Jaber, Bertrand L; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M; Sarnak, Mark J

2017-01-06

AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on-pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Association of Preoperative Urinary Uromodulin with AKI after Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Garimella, Pranav S.; Jaber, Bertrand L.; Tighiouart, Hocine; Liangos, Orfeas; Bennett, Michael R.; Devarajan, Prasad; El-Achkar, Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Background and objectives AKI is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Although high urinary concentrations of the tubular protein uromodulin, a marker of tubular health, are associated with less AKI in animal models, its relationship in humans is unknown. Design, setting, participants, & measurements A post hoc analysis of a prospective cohort study of 218 adults undergoing on–pump cardiac surgery between 2004 and 2011 was conducted. Multivariable logistic and linear regression analyses were used to evaluate the associations of preoperative urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio with postoperative AKI (defined as a rise in serum creatinine of >0.3 mg/dl or >1.5 times baseline); severe AKI (doubling of creatinine or need for dialysis) and peak postoperative serum creatinine over the first 72 hours. Results Mean age was 68 years, 27% were women, 95% were white, and the median uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was 10.0 μg/g. AKI developed in 64 (29%) patients. Lower urinary uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with higher odds for AKI (odds ratio, 1.49 per 1-SD lower uromodulin; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 2.13), which was marginally attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.99 to 2.07). The lowest uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio quartile was also associated with higher odds for AKI relative to the highest quartile (odds ratio, 2.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.19 to 7.26), which was slightly attenuated after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 2.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 6.48). A uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio below the median was associated with higher adjusted odds for severe AKI, although this did not reach statistical significance (odds ratio, 4.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.87 to 18.70). Each 1-SD lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio was associated with a higher adjusted mean peak serum creatinine (0.07 mg/dl per SD; 95% confidence interval, 0.02 to 0.13). Conclusions Lower uromodulin-to-creatinine ratio is associated with higher odds of AKI and higher peak serum creatinine after cardiac surgery. Additional studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results. PMID:27797887

Microvascular anastomosis simulation using a chicken thigh model: Interval versus massed training.

PubMed

Schoeff, Stephen; Hernandez, Brian; Robinson, Derek J; Jameson, Mark J; Shonka, David C

2017-11-01

To compare the effectiveness of massed versus interval training when teaching otolaryngology residents microvascular suturing on a validated microsurgical model. Otolaryngology residents were placed into interval (n = 7) or massed (n = 7) training groups. The interval group performed three separate 30-minute practice sessions separated by at least 1 week, and the massed group performed a single 90-minute practice session. Both groups viewed a video demonstration and recorded a pretest prior to the first training session. A post-test was administered following the last practice session. At an academic medical center, 14 otolaryngology residents were assigned using stratified randomization to interval or massed training. Blinded evaluators graded performance using a validated microvascular Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skill tool. The tool is comprised of two major components: task-specific score (TSS) and global rating scale (GRS). Participants also received pre- and poststudy surveys to compare subjective confidence in multiple aspects of microvascular skill acquisition. Overall, all residents showed increased TSS and GRS on post- versus pretest. After completion of training, the interval group had a statistically significant increase in both TSS and GRS, whereas the massed group's increase was not significant. Residents in both groups reported significantly increased levels of confidence after completion of the study. Self-directed learning using a chicken thigh artery model may benefit microsurgical skills, competence, and confidence for resident surgeons. Interval training results in significant improvement in early development of microvascular anastomosis skills, whereas massed training does not. NA. Laryngoscope, 127:2490-2494, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

Are Household Firearms Stored Less Safely in Homes With Adolescents?

PubMed Central

Johnson, Renee M.; Miller, Matthew; Vriniotis, Mary; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David

2011-01-01

Objective To examine whether firearms are more frequently stored loaded, unlocked, or both in households with adolescents only (aged 13-17 years) compared with households with younger children only (aged 0-12 years). Design Random-digit-dial survey on firearms (n=2770). We computed bivariate associations between the presence of adolescents and firearm storage practices. Statistical significance was assessed using prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Setting United States. Participants Survey respondents with children (aged <18 years) who reported the presence of a household firearm. Main Outcome Measures Prevalence of firearms in the home stored loaded and/or unlocked. Results Of the 392 respondents, 22% had a loaded firearm, 32% had an unlocked firearm, and 8% had a firearm stored loaded and unlocked. Compared with households with younger children, households with adolescents only were somewhat more likely to store a firearm unlocked (42% vs 29%; prevalence ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-2.02), loaded (26% vs 20%; prevalence ratio, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.91), or both (10% vs 8%; prevalence ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-3.19). Conclusions Parents of adolescents appear to be more likely to keep household firearms stored unsafely, especially with regard to keeping firearms unlocked. This is of concern because most youth firearm injuries happen to adolescents. Firearm injury prevention programs should directly target parents of adolescents to promote safe firearm storage. PMID:16894076

LONG-TERM INTRAOCULAR PRESSURE AFTER UNCOMPLICATED PARS PLANA VITRECTOMY FOR IDIOPATHIC EPIRETINAL MEMBRANE.

PubMed

Tognetto, Daniele; Pastore, Marco R; Cirigliano, Gabriella; DʼAloisio, Rossella; Borelli, Massimo; De Giacinto, Chiara

2017-11-16

To investigate long-term intraocular pressure trends after uncomplicated pars plana vitrectomy for idiopathic epiretinal membrane. Three hundred and sixty-eight eyes of 368 consecutive patients were enrolled. Changes in intraocular pressure 1, 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery and during the final follow-up visit were evaluated in vitrectomized eyes and nonvitrectomized fellow eyes. The median follow-up period was 36 months (range 12-92 months). Longitudinal data analysis evidenced a 2.5-mmHg (2.2 mmHg; 2.7 mmHg, 95% confidence interval) statistically significant difference in intraocular pressure 30 days after surgery between treated and fellow untreated eyes, gradually recovering to a not significant 0.2-mmHg (-0.1 mmHg; 0.4 mmHg, 95% confidence interval) difference within 26 months. The incidence of late-onset ocular hypertension was 5.7% (21 over 347, 2%; 12%, 95% confidence interval) without difference between the treated eyes and the group control. No significant difference in the incidence of late-onset ocular hypertension and sex, lens status, or gauge of vitrectomy instruments was detected. Only patient's age was significantly higher (mean difference 4.2 years; 0.1-8.0 years, Monte Carlo, 95% confidence interval) in those who developed late-onset ocular hypertension in the vitrectomized eye. Uncomplicated pars plana vitrectomy for idiopathic epiretinal membrane seems not to increase the risk of late-onset ocular hypertension or open-angle glaucoma development.

Statistical inference based on the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under double-truncation.

PubMed

Emura, Takeshi; Konno, Yoshihiko; Michimae, Hirofumi

2015-07-01

Doubly truncated data consist of samples whose observed values fall between the right- and left- truncation limits. With such samples, the distribution function of interest is estimated using the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) that is obtained through a self-consistency algorithm. Owing to the complicated asymptotic distribution of the NPMLE, the bootstrap method has been suggested for statistical inference. This paper proposes a closed-form estimator for the asymptotic covariance function of the NPMLE, which is computationally attractive alternative to bootstrapping. Furthermore, we develop various statistical inference procedures, such as confidence interval, goodness-of-fit tests, and confidence bands to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed covariance estimator. Simulations are performed to compare the proposed method with both the bootstrap and jackknife methods. The methods are illustrated using the childhood cancer dataset.

A Test by Any Other Name: P Values, Bayes Factors, and Statistical Inference.

PubMed

Stern, Hal S

2016-01-01

Procedures used for statistical inference are receiving increased scrutiny as the scientific community studies the factors associated with insuring reproducible research. This note addresses recent negative attention directed at p values, the relationship of confidence intervals and tests, and the role of Bayesian inference and Bayes factors, with an eye toward better understanding these different strategies for statistical inference. We argue that researchers and data analysts too often resort to binary decisions (e.g., whether to reject or accept the null hypothesis) in settings where this may not be required.

Statistical inference for tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio.

PubMed

Wu, Jianrong

2010-09-01

The tumor growth inhibition T/C ratio is commonly used to quantify treatment effects in drug screening tumor xenograft experiments. The T/C ratio is converted to an antitumor activity rating using an arbitrary cutoff point and often without any formal statistical inference. Here, we applied a nonparametric bootstrap method and a small sample likelihood ratio statistic to make a statistical inference of the T/C ratio, including both hypothesis testing and a confidence interval estimate. Furthermore, sample size and power are also discussed for statistical design of tumor xenograft experiments. Tumor xenograft data from an actual experiment were analyzed to illustrate the application.

Statistical considerations in the development of injury risk functions.

PubMed

McMurry, Timothy L; Poplin, Gerald S

2015-01-01

We address 4 frequently misunderstood and important statistical ideas in the construction of injury risk functions. These include the similarities of survival analysis and logistic regression, the correct scale on which to construct pointwise confidence intervals for injury risk, the ability to discern which form of injury risk function is optimal, and the handling of repeated tests on the same subject. The statistical models are explored through simulation and examination of the underlying mathematics. We provide recommendations for the statistically valid construction and correct interpretation of single-predictor injury risk functions. This article aims to provide useful and understandable statistical guidance to improve the practice in constructing injury risk functions.

After p Values: The New Statistics for Undergraduate Neuroscience Education.

PubMed

Calin-Jageman, Robert J

2017-01-01

Statistical inference is a methodological cornerstone for neuroscience education. For many years this has meant inculcating neuroscience majors into null hypothesis significance testing with p values. There is increasing concern, however, about the pervasive misuse of p values. It is time to start planning statistics curricula for neuroscience majors that replaces or de-emphasizes p values. One promising alternative approach is what Cumming has dubbed the "New Statistics", an approach that emphasizes effect sizes, confidence intervals, meta-analysis, and open science. I give an example of the New Statistics in action and describe some of the key benefits of adopting this approach in neuroscience education.

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. Methods The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. Results The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. Conclusions If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used. PMID:24552686

A modified Wald interval for the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in diagnostic case-control studies.

PubMed

Kottas, Martina; Kuss, Oliver; Zapf, Antonia

2014-02-19

The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, referred to as the AUC, is an appropriate measure for describing the overall accuracy of a diagnostic test or a biomarker in early phase trials without having to choose a threshold. There are many approaches for estimating the confidence interval for the AUC. However, all are relatively complicated to implement. Furthermore, many approaches perform poorly for large AUC values or small sample sizes. The AUC is actually a probability. So we propose a modified Wald interval for a single proportion, which can be calculated on a pocket calculator. We performed a simulation study to compare this modified Wald interval (without and with continuity correction) with other intervals regarding coverage probability and statistical power. The main result is that the proposed modified Wald intervals maintain and exploit the type I error much better than the intervals of Agresti-Coull, Wilson, and Clopper-Pearson. The interval suggested by Bamber, the Mann-Whitney interval without transformation and also the interval of the binormal AUC are very liberal. For small sample sizes the Wald interval with continuity has a comparable coverage probability as the LT interval and higher power. For large sample sizes the results of the LT interval and of the Wald interval without continuity correction are comparable. If individual patient data is not available, but only the estimated AUC and the total sample size, the modified Wald intervals can be recommended as confidence intervals for the AUC. For small sample sizes the continuity correction should be used.

Tobacco smoking and oral clefts: a meta-analysis.

PubMed Central

Little, Julian; Cardy, Amanda; Munger, Ronald G.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between maternal smoking and non-syndromic orofacial clefts in infants. METHODS: A meta-analysis of the association between maternal smoking during pregnancy was carried out using data from 24 case-control and cohort studies. FINDINGS: Consistent, moderate and statistically significant associations were found between maternal smoking and cleft lip, with or without cleft palate (relative risk 1.34, 95% confidence interval 1.25-1.44) and between maternal smoking and cleft palate (relative risk 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.35). There was evidence of a modest dose-response effect for cleft lip with or without cleft palate. CONCLUSION: The evidence of an association between maternal tobacco smoking and orofacial clefts is strong enough to justify its use in anti-smoking campaigns. PMID:15112010

A spreadsheet template compatible with Microsoft Excel and iWork Numbers that returns the simultaneous confidence intervals for all pairwise differences between multiple sample means.

PubMed

Brown, Angus M

2010-04-01

The objective of the method described in this paper is to develop a spreadsheet template for the purpose of comparing multiple sample means. An initial analysis of variance (ANOVA) test on the data returns F--the test statistic. If F is larger than the critical F value drawn from the F distribution at the appropriate degrees of freedom, convention dictates rejection of the null hypothesis and allows subsequent multiple comparison testing to determine where the inequalities between the sample means lie. A variety of multiple comparison methods are described that return the 95% confidence intervals for differences between means using an inclusive pairwise comparison of the sample means. 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase polymorphisms and risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Serbian children.

PubMed

Damnjanovic, Tatjana; Milicevic, Radomir; Novkovic, Tanja; Jovicic, Olivera; Bunjevacki, Vera; Jekic, Biljana; Lukovic, Ljiljana; Novakovic, Ivana; Redzic, Danka; Milasin, Jelena

2010-05-01

Methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) regulates the metabolism of folate and methionine, essential components of DNA synthesis and methylation. Polymorphisms in the MTHFR gene have been associated with susceptibility to some types of cancer. We investigated a possible association of MTHFR polymorphisms (677C>T and 1298A>C) and increased risk for acute lymphoblastic leukemia in 78 affected children. The frequencies of both MTHFR 677 genotypes and alleles were significantly different between patients and controls. A significant association between CT/TT individuals and reduced risk of acute lymphoblastic leukemia was found. The odds ratios were 0.53 (95% confidence interval, 032-0.89) and 0.30 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.81). Polymorphism 1298 did not show statistical difference between patients and controls.

Dietary Inflammatory Potential Score and Risk of Breast Cancer: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zahedi, Hoda; Djalalinia, Shirin; Sadeghi, Omid; Asayesh, Hamid; Noroozi, Mehdi; Gorabi, Armita Mahdavi; Mohammadi, Rasool; Qorbani, Mostafa

2018-02-07

Several studies have been conducted on the relationship between dietary inflammatory potential (DIP) and breast cancer. However, the findings are conflicting. This systematic review and meta-analysis summarizes the findings on the association between DIP and the risk of breast cancer. We used relevant keywords and searched online international electronic databases, including PubMed and NLM Gateway (for Medline), Institute for Scientific Information (ISI), and Scopus for articles published through February 2017. All cross-sectional, case-control, and cohort studies were included in this meta-analysis. Meta-analysis was performed using the random effects meta-analysis method to address heterogeneity among studies. Findings were analyzed statistically. Nine studies were included in the present systematic review and meta-analysis. The total sample size of these studies was 296,102, and the number of participants varied from 1453 to 122,788. The random effects meta-analysis showed a positive and significant association between DIP and the risk of breast cancer (pooled odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.27). The pooled effect size was not statistically significant because of the type of studies, including cohort (pooled relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-1.10) and case-control (pooled odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 0.89-2.37) studies. We found a significant and positive association between higher DIP score and risk of breast cancer. Modifying inflammatory characteristics of diet can substantially reduce the risk of breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Credible occurrence probabilities for extreme geophysical events: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, magnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2012-01-01

Statistical analysis is made of rare, extreme geophysical events recorded in historical data -- counting the number of events $k$ with sizes that exceed chosen thresholds during specific durations of time $\\tau$. Under transformations that stabilize data and model-parameter variances, the most likely Poisson-event occurrence rate, $k/\\tau$, applies for frequentist inference and, also, for Bayesian inference with a Jeffreys prior that ensures posterior invariance under changes of variables. Frequentist confidence intervals and Bayesian (Jeffreys) credibility intervals are approximately the same and easy to calculate: $(1/\\tau)[(\\sqrt{k} - z/2)^{2},(\\sqrt{k} + z/2)^{2}]$, where $z$ is a parameter that specifies the width, $z=1$ ($z=2$) corresponding to $1\\sigma$, $68.3\\%$ ($2\\sigma$, $95.4\\%$). If only a few events have been observed, as is usually the case for extreme events, then these "error-bar" intervals might be considered to be relatively wide. From historical records, we estimate most likely long-term occurrence rates, 10-yr occurrence probabilities, and intervals of frequentist confidence and Bayesian credibility for large earthquakes, explosive volcanic eruptions, and magnetic storms.

Exact intervals and tests for median when one sample value possibly an outliner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, G. J.; Walsh, J. E.

1973-01-01

Available are independent observations (continuous data) that are believed to be a random sample. Desired are distribution-free confidence intervals and significance tests for the population median. However, there is the possibility that either the smallest or the largest observation is an outlier. Then, use of a procedure for rejection of an outlying observation might seem appropriate. Such a procedure would consider that two alternative situations are possible and would select one of them. Either (1) the n observations are truly a random sample, or (2) an outlier exists and its removal leaves a random sample of size n-1. For either situation, confidence intervals and tests are desired for the median of the population yielding the random sample. Unfortunately, satisfactory rejection procedures of a distribution-free nature do not seem to be available. Moreover, all rejection procedures impose undesirable conditional effects on the observations, and also, can select the wrong one of the two above situations. It is found that two-sided intervals and tests based on two symmetrically located order statistics (not the largest and smallest) of the n observations have this property.

Statistical Applications in Two Leading Educational Administration Journals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Byrd, Jimmy; Eddy, Colleen

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to review research published by "Journal of Educational Administration (JEA)" and the "Educational Administration Quarterly (EAQ)" over the past ten years to examine the type of research reported and to determine if confidence intervals and effect sizes were being reported as recommended by the American…

The Role of Simulation Approaches in Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Michael

2005-01-01

This article explores the uses of a simulation model (the two bucket story)--implemented by a stand-alone computer program, or an Excel workbook (both on the web)--that can be used for deriving bootstrap confidence intervals, and simulating various probability distributions. The strengths of the model are its generality, the fact that it provides…

Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2014-10-01

Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

Peaks Over Threshold (POT): A methodology for automatic threshold estimation using goodness of fit p-value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solari, Sebastián.; Egüen, Marta; Polo, María. José; Losada, Miguel A.

2017-04-01

Threshold estimation in the Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method and the impact of the estimation method on the calculation of high return period quantiles and their uncertainty (or confidence intervals) are issues that are still unresolved. In the past, methods based on goodness of fit tests and EDF-statistics have yielded satisfactory results, but their use has not yet been systematized. This paper proposes a methodology for automatic threshold estimation, based on the Anderson-Darling EDF-statistic and goodness of fit test. When combined with bootstrapping techniques, this methodology can be used to quantify both the uncertainty of threshold estimation and its impact on the uncertainty of high return period quantiles. This methodology was applied to several simulated series and to four precipitation/river flow data series. The results obtained confirmed its robustness. For the measured series, the estimated thresholds corresponded to those obtained by nonautomatic methods. Moreover, even though the uncertainty of the threshold estimation was high, this did not have a significant effect on the width of the confidence intervals of high return period quantiles.

Performing Contrast Analysis in Factorial Designs: From NHST to Confidence Intervals and Beyond

PubMed Central

Wiens, Stefan; Nilsson, Mats E.

2016-01-01

Because of the continuing debates about statistics, many researchers may feel confused about how to analyze and interpret data. Current guidelines in psychology advocate the use of effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs). However, researchers may be unsure about how to extract effect sizes from factorial designs. Contrast analysis is helpful because it can be used to test specific questions of central interest in studies with factorial designs. It weighs several means and combines them into one or two sets that can be tested with t tests. The effect size produced by a contrast analysis is simply the difference between means. The CI of the effect size informs directly about direction, hypothesis exclusion, and the relevance of the effects of interest. However, any interpretation in terms of precision or likelihood requires the use of likelihood intervals or credible intervals (Bayesian). These various intervals and even a Bayesian t test can be obtained easily with free software. This tutorial reviews these methods to guide researchers in answering the following questions: When I analyze mean differences in factorial designs, where can I find the effects of central interest, and what can I learn about their effect sizes? PMID:29805179

Risk analysis in cohort studies with heterogeneous strata. A global chi2-test for dose-response relationship, generalizing the Mantel-Haenszel procedure.

PubMed

Ahlborn, W; Tuz, H J; Uberla, K

1990-03-01

In cohort studies the Mantel-Haenszel estimator ORMH is computed from sample data and is used as a point estimator of relative risk. Test-based confidence intervals are estimated with the help of the asymptotic chi-squared distributed MH-statistic chi 2MHS. The Mantel-extension-chi-squared is used as a test statistic for a dose-response relationship. Both test statistics--the Mantel-Haenszel-chi as well as the Mantel-extension-chi--assume homogeneity of risk across strata, which is rarely present. Also an extended nonparametric statistic, proposed by Terpstra, which is based on the Mann-Whitney-statistics assumes homogeneity of risk across strata. We have earlier defined four risk measures RRkj (k = 1,2,...,4) in the population and considered their estimates and the corresponding asymptotic distributions. In order to overcome the homogeneity assumption we use the delta-method to get "test-based" confidence intervals. Because the four risk measures RRkj are presented as functions of four weights gik we give, consequently, the asymptotic variances of these risk estimators also as functions of the weights gik in a closed form. Approximations to these variances are given. For testing a dose-response relationship we propose a new class of chi 2(1)-distributed global measures Gk and the corresponding global chi 2-test. In contrast to the Mantel-extension-chi homogeneity of risk across strata must not be assumed. These global test statistics are of the Wald type for composite hypotheses.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

“Magnitude-based Inference”: A Statistical Review

PubMed Central

Welsh, Alan H.; Knight, Emma J.

2015-01-01

ABSTRACT Purpose We consider “magnitude-based inference” and its interpretation by examining in detail its use in the problem of comparing two means. Methods We extract from the spreadsheets, which are provided to users of the analysis (http://www.sportsci.org/), a precise description of how “magnitude-based inference” is implemented. We compare the implemented version of the method with general descriptions of it and interpret the method in familiar statistical terms. Results and Conclusions We show that “magnitude-based inference” is not a progressive improvement on modern statistics. The additional probabilities introduced are not directly related to the confidence interval but, rather, are interpretable either as P values for two different nonstandard tests (for different null hypotheses) or as approximate Bayesian calculations, which also lead to a type of test. We also discuss sample size calculations associated with “magnitude-based inference” and show that the substantial reduction in sample sizes claimed for the method (30% of the sample size obtained from standard frequentist calculations) is not justifiable so the sample size calculations should not be used. Rather than using “magnitude-based inference,” a better solution is to be realistic about the limitations of the data and use either confidence intervals or a fully Bayesian analysis. PMID:25051387

Using structural equation modeling for network meta-analysis.

PubMed

Tu, Yu-Kang; Wu, Yun-Chun

2017-07-14

Network meta-analysis overcomes the limitations of traditional pair-wise meta-analysis by incorporating all available evidence into a general statistical framework for simultaneous comparisons of several treatments. Currently, network meta-analyses are undertaken either within the Bayesian hierarchical linear models or frequentist generalized linear mixed models. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is a statistical method originally developed for modeling causal relations among observed and latent variables. As random effect is explicitly modeled as a latent variable in SEM, it is very flexible for analysts to specify complex random effect structure and to make linear and nonlinear constraints on parameters. The aim of this article is to show how to undertake a network meta-analysis within the statistical framework of SEM. We used an example dataset to demonstrate the standard fixed and random effect network meta-analysis models can be easily implemented in SEM. It contains results of 26 studies that directly compared three treatment groups A, B and C for prevention of first bleeding in patients with liver cirrhosis. We also showed that a new approach to network meta-analysis based on the technique of unrestricted weighted least squares (UWLS) method can also be undertaken using SEM. For both the fixed and random effect network meta-analysis, SEM yielded similar coefficients and confidence intervals to those reported in the previous literature. The point estimates of two UWLS models were identical to those in the fixed effect model but the confidence intervals were greater. This is consistent with results from the traditional pairwise meta-analyses. Comparing to UWLS model with common variance adjusted factor, UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor has greater confidence intervals when the heterogeneity was larger in the pairwise comparison. The UWLS model with unique variance adjusted factor reflects the difference in heterogeneity within each comparison. SEM provides a very flexible framework for univariate and multivariate meta-analysis, and its potential as a powerful tool for advanced meta-analysis is still to be explored.

Gender differences in learning physical science concepts: Does computer animation help equalize them?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacek, Laura Lee

This dissertation details an experiment designed to identify gender differences in learning using three experimental treatments: animation, static graphics, and verbal instruction alone. Three learning presentations were used in testing of 332 university students. Statistical analysis was performed using ANOVA, binomial tests for differences of proportion, and descriptive statistics. Results showed that animation significantly improved women's long-term learning over static graphics (p = 0.067), but didn't significantly improve men's long-term learning over static graphics. In all cases, women's scores improved with animation over both other forms of instruction for long-term testing, indicating that future research should not abandon the study of animation as a tool that may promote gender equity in science. Short-term test differences were smaller, and not statistically significant. Variation present in short-term scores was related more to presentation topic than treatment. This research also details characteristics of each of the three presentations, to identify variables (e.g. level of abstraction in presentation) affecting score differences within treatments. Differences between men's and women's scores were non-standard between presentations, but these differences were not statistically significant (long-term p = 0.2961, short-term p = 0.2893). In future research, experiments might be better designed to test these presentational variables in isolation, possibly yielding more distinctive differences between presentational scores. Differences in confidence interval overlaps between presentations suggested that treatment superiority may be somewhat dependent on the design or topic of the learning presentation. Confidence intervals greatly overlap in all situations. This undercut, to some degree, the surety of conclusions indicating superiority of one treatment type over the others. However, confidence intervals for animation were smaller, overlapped nearly completely for men and women (there was less overlap between the genders for the other two treatments), and centered around slightly higher means, lending further support to the conclusion that animation helped equalize men's and women's learning. The most important conclusion identified in this research is that gender is an important variable experimental populations testing animation as a learning device. Averages indicated that both men and women prefer to work with animation over either static graphics or verbal instruction alone.

Reducing the width of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means by inverting adaptive tests.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Thomas W

2018-05-01

In the last decade, it has been shown that an adaptive testing method could be used, along with the Robbins-Monro search procedure, to obtain confidence intervals that are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals. However, these confidence interval limits require a great deal of computation and some familiarity with stochastic search methods. We propose a method for estimating the limits of confidence intervals that uses only a few tests of significance. We compare these limits to those obtained by a lengthy Robbins-Monro stochastic search and find that the proposed method is nearly as accurate as the Robbins-Monro search. Adaptive confidence intervals that are produced by the proposed method are often narrower than traditional confidence intervals when the distributions are long-tailed, skewed, or bimodal. Moreover, the proposed method of estimating confidence interval limits is easy to understand, because it is based solely on the p-values from a few tests of significance.

Empirical likelihood-based confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data.

PubMed

Jeyarajah, Jenny; Qin, Gengsheng

2017-11-10

In this paper, we propose empirical likelihood methods based on influence function and jackknife techniques for constructing confidence intervals for mean medical cost with censored data. We conduct a simulation study to compare the coverage probabilities and interval lengths of our proposed confidence intervals with that of the existing normal approximation-based confidence intervals and bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed methods have better finite-sample performances than existing methods. Finally, we illustrate our proposed methods with a relevant example. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Manifestations of Influence of Solar Activity and Cosmic Ray Intensity on the Wheat Price in the Medieval England (1259-1703 Years)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pustil'Nik, Lev A.; Dorman, L. I.; Yom Din, G.

2003-07-01

The database of Professor Rogers, with wheat prices in England in the Middle Ages (1249-1703) was used to search for possible manifestations of solar activity and cosmic ray variations. The main object of the statistical analysis is investigation of bursts of prices. We present a conceptual model of possible modes for sensitivity of wheat prices to weather conditions, caused by solar cycle variations in cosmic rays, and compare the expected price fluctuations with wheat price variations recorded in the Medieval England. We compared statistical properties of the intervals between price bursts with statistical properties of the intervals between extremes (minimums) of solar cycles during the years 1700-2000. Statistical properties of these two samples are similar both in averaged/median values of intervals and in standard deviation of this values. We show that histogram of intervals distribution for price bursts and solar minimums are coincidence with high confidence level. We analyzed direct links between wheat prices and solar activity in the th 17 Century, for which wheat prices and solar activity data as well as cosmic ray intensity (from 10 Be isotop e) are available. We show that for all seven solar activity minimums the observed prices were higher than prices for the nine intervals of maximal solar activity proceed preceding to the minimums. This result, combined with the conclusion on similarity of statistical properties of the price bursts and solar activity extremes we consider as direct evidence of a causal connection between wheat prices bursts and solar activity.

Data Analysis Techniques for Physical Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pruneau, Claude A.

2017-10-01

Preface; How to read this book; 1. The scientific method; Part I. Foundation in Probability and Statistics: 2. Probability; 3. Probability models; 4. Classical inference I: estimators; 5. Classical inference II: optimization; 6. Classical inference III: confidence intervals and statistical tests; 7. Bayesian inference; Part II. Measurement Techniques: 8. Basic measurements; 9. Event reconstruction; 10. Correlation functions; 11. The multiple facets of correlation functions; 12. Data correction methods; Part III. Simulation Techniques: 13. Monte Carlo methods; 14. Collision and detector modeling; List of references; Index.

Confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes, with applications to survey sampling.

PubMed

Rosenblum, Michael A; Laan, Mark J van der

2009-01-07

The validity of standard confidence intervals constructed in survey sampling is based on the central limit theorem. For small sample sizes, the central limit theorem may give a poor approximation, resulting in confidence intervals that are misleading. We discuss this issue and propose methods for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean tailored to small sample sizes. We present a simple approach for constructing confidence intervals for the population mean based on tail bounds for the sample mean that are correct for all sample sizes. Bernstein's inequality provides one such tail bound. The resulting confidence intervals have guaranteed coverage probability under much weaker assumptions than are required for standard methods. A drawback of this approach, as we show, is that these confidence intervals are often quite wide. In response to this, we present a method for constructing much narrower confidence intervals, which are better suited for practical applications, and that are still more robust than confidence intervals based on standard methods, when dealing with small sample sizes. We show how to extend our approaches to much more general estimation problems than estimating the sample mean. We describe how these methods can be used to obtain more reliable confidence intervals in survey sampling. As a concrete example, we construct confidence intervals using our methods for the number of violent deaths between March 2003 and July 2006 in Iraq, based on data from the study "Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross sectional cluster sample survey," by Burnham et al. (2006).

An alternative approach to confidence interval estimation for the win ratio statistic.

PubMed

Luo, Xiaodong; Tian, Hong; Mohanty, Surya; Tsai, Wei Yann

2015-03-01

Pocock et al. (2012, European Heart Journal 33, 176-182) proposed a win ratio approach to analyzing composite endpoints comprised of outcomes with different clinical priorities. In this article, we establish a statistical framework for this approach. We derive the null hypothesis and propose a closed-form variance estimator for the win ratio statistic in all pairwise matching situation. Our simulation study shows that the proposed variance estimator performs well regardless of the magnitude of treatment effect size and the type of the joint distribution of the outcomes. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Peer-driven contraceptive choices and preferences for contraceptive methods among students of tertiary educational institutions in Enugu, Nigeria.

PubMed

Iyoke, Ca; Ezugwu, Fo; Lawani, Ol; Ugwu, Go; Ajah, Lo; Mba, Sg

2014-01-01

To describe the methods preferred for contraception, evaluate preferences and adherence to modern contraceptive methods, and determine the factors associated with contraceptive choices among tertiary students in South East Nigeria. A questionnaire-based cross-sectional study of sexual habits, knowledge of contraceptive methods, and patterns of contraceptive choices among a pooled sample of unmarried students from the three largest tertiary educational institutions in Enugu city, Nigeria was done. Statistical analysis involved descriptive and inferential statistics at the 95% level of confidence. A total of 313 unmarried students were studied (194 males; 119 females). Their mean age was 22.5±5.1 years. Over 98% of males and 85% of females made their contraceptive choices based on information from peers. Preferences for contraceptive methods among female students were 49.2% for traditional methods of contraception, 28% for modern methods, 10% for nonpharmacological agents, and 8% for off-label drugs. Adherence to modern contraceptives among female students was 35%. Among male students, the preference for the male condom was 45.2% and the adherence to condom use was 21.7%. Multivariate analysis showed that receiving information from health personnel/media/workshops (odds ratio 9.54, 95% confidence interval 3.5-26.3), health science-related course of study (odds ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval 1.3-9.6), and previous sexual exposure prior to university admission (odds ratio 3.48, 95% confidence interval 1.5-8.0) all increased the likelihood of adherence to modern contraceptive methods. An overwhelming reliance on peers for contraceptive information in the context of poor knowledge of modern methods of contraception among young people could have contributed to the low preferences and adherence to modern contraceptive methods among students in tertiary educational institutions. Programs to reduce risky sexual behavior among these students may need to focus on increasing the content and adequacy of contraceptive information held by people through regular health worker-led, on-campus workshops.

Statistical Significance, Effect Size Reporting, and Confidence Intervals: Best Reporting Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Capraro, Robert M.

2004-01-01

With great interest the author read the May 2002 editorial in the "Journal for Research in Mathematics Education (JRME)" (King, 2002) regarding changes to the 5th edition of the "Publication Manual of the American Psychological Association" (APA, 2001). Of special note to him, and of great import to the field of mathematics education research, are…

Reporting and Interpreting Quantitative Research Findings: What Gets Reported and Recommendations for the Field

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larson-Hall, Jenifer; Plonsky, Luke

2015-01-01

This paper presents a set of guidelines for reporting on five types of quantitative data issues: (1) Descriptive statistics, (2) Effect sizes and confidence intervals, (3) Instrument reliability, (4) Visual displays of data, and (5) Raw data. Our recommendations are derived mainly from various professional sources related to L2 research but…

Hypothesis Testing, "p" Values, Confidence Intervals, Measures of Effect Size, and Bayesian Methods in Light of Modern Robust Techniques

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Rand R.; Serang, Sarfaraz

2017-01-01

The article provides perspectives on p values, null hypothesis testing, and alternative techniques in light of modern robust statistical methods. Null hypothesis testing and "p" values can provide useful information provided they are interpreted in a sound manner, which includes taking into account insights and advances that have…

Effects of aerodynamic heating and TPS thermal performance uncertainties on the Shuttle Orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodrich, W. D.; Derry, S. M.; Maraia, R. J.

1980-01-01

A procedure for estimating uncertainties in the aerodynamic-heating and thermal protection system (TPS) thermal-performance methodologies developed for the Shuttle Orbiter is presented. This procedure is used in predicting uncertainty bands around expected or nominal TPS thermal responses for the Orbiter during entry. Individual flowfield and TPS parameters that make major contributions to these uncertainty bands are identified and, by statistical considerations, combined in a manner suitable for making engineering estimates of the TPS thermal confidence intervals and temperature margins relative to design limits. Thus, for a fixed TPS design, entry trajectories for future Orbiter missions can be shaped subject to both the thermal-margin and confidence-interval requirements. This procedure is illustrated by assessing the thermal margins offered by selected areas of the existing Orbiter TPS design for an entry trajectory typifying early flight test missions.

A Prospective, Randomized Trial of Routine Duplex Ultrasound Surveillance on Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation.

PubMed

Han, Ahram; Min, Seung-Kee; Kim, Mi-Sook; Joo, Kwon Wook; Kim, Jungsun; Ha, Jongwon; Lee, Joongyub; Min, Sang-Il

2016-10-07

Use of arteriovenous fistulas, the most preferred type of access for hemodialysis, is limited by their high maturation failure rate. The aim of this study was to assess whether aggressive surveillance with routine duplex ultrasound and intervention can decrease the maturation failure rate of arteriovenous fistulas. We conducted a single-center, parallel-group, randomized, controlled trial of patients undergoing autogenous arteriovenous fistula. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the routine duplex or selective duplex group. In the routine duplex group, duplex ultrasound and physical examination were performed 2, 4, and 8 weeks postoperatively. In the selective duplex group, duplex examination was performed only when physical examination detected an abnormality. The primary end point was the maturation failure rate 8 weeks after fistula creation. Maturation failure was defined as the inability to achieve clinical maturation ( i.e. , a successful first use) and failure to achieve sonographic maturation (fistula flow >500 ml/min and diameter >6 mm) within 8 weeks. Between June 14, 2012, and June 25, 2014, 150 patients were enrolled (75 patients in each group), and 118 of those were included in the final analysis. The maturation failure rate was lower in the routine duplex group (8 of 59; 13.6%) than in the selective duplex group (15 of 59; 25.4%), but the difference was not statistically significant (odds ratio, 0.46; 95% confidence interval, 0.18 to 1.19; P =0.10). Factors associated with maturation failure were women (odds ratio, 3.84; 95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 14.06; P =0.04), coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 6.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.62 to 24.95; P <0.01), diabetes (odds ratio, 6.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.76 to 21.19; P <0.01), and the preoperative cephalic vein diameter (odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 0.71; P <0.01). Postoperative routine duplex surveillance failed to prove superiority compared with selective duplex after physical examination for reducing arteriovenous fistula maturation failure. However, the wide 95% confidence interval for the effect of intervention precludes a firm conclusion that routine duplex surveillance was not beneficial. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Quantitative Myocardial Perfusion Imaging Versus Visual Analysis in Diagnosing Myocardial Ischemia: A CE-MARC Substudy.

PubMed

Biglands, John D; Ibraheem, Montasir; Magee, Derek R; Radjenovic, Aleksandra; Plein, Sven; Greenwood, John P

2018-05-01

This study sought to compare the diagnostic accuracy of visual and quantitative analyses of myocardial perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance against a reference standard of quantitative coronary angiography. Visual analysis of perfusion cardiovascular magnetic resonance studies for assessing myocardial perfusion has been shown to have high diagnostic accuracy for coronary artery disease. However, only a few small studies have assessed the diagnostic accuracy of quantitative myocardial perfusion. This retrospective study included 128 patients randomly selected from the CE-MARC (Clinical Evaluation of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Coronary Heart Disease) study population such that the distribution of risk factors and disease status was proportionate to the full population. Visual analysis results of cardiovascular magnetic resonance perfusion images, by consensus of 2 expert readers, were taken from the original study reports. Quantitative myocardial blood flow estimates were obtained using Fermi-constrained deconvolution. The reference standard for myocardial ischemia was a quantitative coronary x-ray angiogram stenosis severity of ≥70% diameter in any coronary artery of >2 mm diameter, or ≥50% in the left main stem. Diagnostic performance was calculated using receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. The area under the curve for visual analysis was 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.81 to 0.95) with a sensitivity of 81.0% (95% confidence interval: 69.1% to 92.8%) and specificity of 86.0% (95% confidence interval: 78.7% to 93.4%). For quantitative stress myocardial blood flow the area under the curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.83 to 0.96) with a sensitivity of 87.5% (95% confidence interval: 77.3% to 97.7%) and specificity of 84.5% (95% confidence interval: 76.8% to 92.3%). There was no statistically significant difference between the diagnostic performance of quantitative and visual analyses (p = 0.72). Incorporating rest myocardial blood flow values to generate a myocardial perfusion reserve did not significantly increase the quantitative analysis area under the curve (p = 0.79). Quantitative perfusion has a high diagnostic accuracy for detecting coronary artery disease but is not superior to visual analysis. The incorporation of rest perfusion imaging does not improve diagnostic accuracy in quantitative perfusion analysis. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiology of 1.6 million pediatric soccer-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003.

PubMed

Leininger, Robert E; Knox, Christy L; Comstock, R Dawn

2007-02-01

As soccer participation in the United States increases, so does the number of children at risk for injury. To examine pediatric soccer-related injuries presenting to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003. Descriptive epidemiology study. A descriptive analysis of nationally representative, pediatric, soccer-related injury data from the US Consumer Product Safety Commission's National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. Among those 2 to 18 years of age, a nationally estimated 1597528 soccer-related injuries presented to US emergency departments from 1990 to 2003. Mean age was 13.2 years (range, 2-18 years); 58.6% were male. From 1990 to 2003, there was an increase in the absolute number of injuries among girls (P < .0001). The wrist/finger/hand (20.3%), ankle (18.2%), and knee (11.4%) were the most commonly injured body parts. The most common diagnoses were sprain/strain (35.9%), contusion/abrasion (24.1%), and fracture (23.2%). Boys were more likely to have face and head/neck injuries (17.7%; relative risk, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.32-1.49; P < .01) and lacerations/punctures (7.5%; relative risk, 3.31; 95% confidence interval, 2.93-3.74; P < .01) than were girls (12.7% and 2.3%, respectively). Girls were more likely to have ankle injuries (21.8%; relative risk, 1.38; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-1.45; P < .01) and knee injuries (12.9%; relative risk, 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-1.35; P < .01) than were boys (15.7% and 10.4%, respectively). Girls were more likely to have sprains or strains (42.4%) than were boys (31.3%; relative risk, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-1.40; P < .01). Children 2 to 4 years old sustained a higher proportion of face and head/neck injuries (41.0%) than did older children (15.5%; relative risk, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 2.09-3.36; P < .01). When comparing these data to available national statistics that estimate participation in youth soccer, true injury rates may actually be decreasing for boys and girls. Young children should be closely supervised because of risk of head injuries and rate of hospitalization. The establishment of a national database of soccer participation and injury data is needed to better identify injury risks.

Effects of weight loss interventions for adults who are obese on mortality, cardiovascular disease, and cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Chenhan; Avenell, Alison; Bolland, Mark; Hudson, Jemma; Stewart, Fiona; Robertson, Clare; Sharma, Pawana; Fraser, Cynthia; MacLennan, Graeme

2017-11-14

Objective  To assess whether weight loss interventions for adults with obesity affect all cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and body weight. Design  Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) using random effects, estimating risk ratios, and mean differences. Heterogeneity investigated using Cochran's Q and I 2 statistics. Quality of evidence assessed by GRADE criteria. Data sources  Medline, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and full texts in our trials' registry for data not evident in databases. Authors were contacted for unpublished data. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies  RCTs of dietary interventions targeting weight loss, with or without exercise advice or programmes, for adults with obesity and follow-up ≥1 year. Results  54 RCTs with 30 206 participants were identified. All but one trial evaluated low fat, weight reducing diets. For the primary outcome, high quality evidence showed that weight loss interventions decrease all cause mortality (34 trials, 685 events; risk ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.95), with six fewer deaths per 1000 participants (95% confidence interval two to 10). For other primary outcomes moderate quality evidence showed an effect on cardiovascular mortality (eight trials, 134 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.31), and very low quality evidence showed an effect on cancer mortality (eight trials, 34 events; risk ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 1.11). Twenty four trials (15 176 participants) reported high quality evidence on participants developing new cardiovascular events (1043 events; risk ratio 0.93, 95% confidence interval 0.83 to 1.04). Nineteen trials (6330 participants) provided very low quality evidence on participants developing new cancers (103 events; risk ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.36). Conclusions  Weight reducing diets, usually low in fat and saturated fat, with or without exercise advice or programmes, may reduce premature all cause mortality in adults with obesity. Systematic review registration  PROSPERO CRD42016033217. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Statistical evaluation of time-dependent metabolite concentrations: estimation of post-mortem intervals based on in situ 1H-MRS of the brain.

PubMed

Scheurer, Eva; Ith, Michael; Dietrich, Daniel; Kreis, Roland; Hüsler, Jürg; Dirnhofer, Richard; Boesch, Chris

2005-05-01

Knowledge of the time interval from death (post-mortem interval, PMI) has an enormous legal, criminological and psychological impact. Aiming to find an objective method for the determination of PMIs in forensic medicine, 1H-MR spectroscopy (1H-MRS) was used in a sheep head model to follow changes in brain metabolite concentrations after death. Following the characterization of newly observed metabolites (Ith et al., Magn. Reson. Med. 2002; 5: 915-920), the full set of acquired spectra was analyzed statistically to provide a quantitative estimation of PMIs with their respective confidence limits. In a first step, analytical mathematical functions are proposed to describe the time courses of 10 metabolites in the decomposing brain up to 3 weeks post-mortem. Subsequently, the inverted functions are used to predict PMIs based on the measured metabolite concentrations. Individual PMIs calculated from five different metabolites are then pooled, being weighted by their inverse variances. The predicted PMIs from all individual examinations in the sheep model are compared with known true times. In addition, four human cases with forensically estimated PMIs are compared with predictions based on single in situ MRS measurements. Interpretation of the individual sheep examinations gave a good correlation up to 250 h post-mortem, demonstrating that the predicted PMIs are consistent with the data used to generate the model. Comparison of the estimated PMIs with the forensically determined PMIs in the four human cases shows an adequate correlation. Current PMI estimations based on forensic methods typically suffer from uncertainties in the order of days to weeks without mathematically defined confidence information. In turn, a single 1H-MRS measurement of brain tissue in situ results in PMIs with defined and favorable confidence intervals in the range of hours, thus offering a quantitative and objective method for the determination of PMIs. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Work-related stress, education and work ability among hospital nurses.

PubMed

Golubic, Rajna; Milosevic, Milan; Knezevic, Bojana; Mustajbegovic, Jadranka

2009-10-01

This paper is a report of a study conducted to determine which occupational stressors are present in nurses' working environment; to describe and compare occupational stress between two educational groups of nurses; to estimate which stressors and to what extent predict nurses' work ability; and to determine if educational level predicts nurses' work ability. Nurses' occupational stress adversely affects their health and nursing quality. Higher educational level has been shown to have positive effects on the preservation of good work ability. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2006-2007. Questionnaires were distributed to a convenience sample of 1392 (59%) nurses employed at four university hospitals in Croatia (n = 2364). The response rate was 78% (n = 1086). Data were collected using the Occupational Stress Assessment Questionnaire and Work Ability Index Questionnaire. We identified six major groups of occupational stressors: 'Organization of work and financial issues', 'public criticism', 'hazards at workplace', 'interpersonal conflicts at workplace', 'shift work' and 'professional and intellectual demands'. Nurses with secondary school qualifications perceived Hazards at workplace and Shift work as statistically significantly more stressful than nurses a with college degree. Predictors statistically significantly related with low work ability were: Organization of work and financial issues (odds ratio = 1.69, 95% confidence interval 122-236), lower educational level (odds ratio = 1.69, 95% confidence interval 122-236) and older age (odds ratio = 1.07, 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.09). Hospital managers should develop strategies to address and improve the quality of working conditions for nurses in Croatian hospitals. Providing educational and career prospects can contribute to decreasing nurses' occupational stress levels, thus maintaining their work ability.

Audit of lymphadenectomy in lung cancer resections using a specimen collection kit and checklist.

PubMed

Osarogiagbon, Raymond U; Sareen, Srishti; Eke, Ransome; Yu, Xinhua; McHugh, Laura M; Kernstine, Kemp H; Putnam, Joe B; Robbins, Edward T

2015-02-01

Audits of operative summaries and pathology reports reveal wide discordance in identifying the extent of lymphadenectomy performed (the communication gap). We tested the ability of a prelabeled lymph node specimen collection kit and checklist to narrow the communication gap between operating surgeons, pathologists, and auditors of surgeons' operation notes. We conducted a prospective single cohort study of lung cancer resections performed with a lymph node collection kit from November 2010 to January 2013. We used the kappa statistic to compare surgeon claims on a checklist of lymph node stations harvested intraoperatively with pathology reports and an independent audit of surgeons' operative summaries. Lymph node collection procedures were classified into four groups based on the anatomic origin of resected lymph nodes: mediastinal lymph node dissection, systematic sampling, random sampling, and no sampling. From the pathology reports, 73% of 160 resections had a mediastinal lymph node dissection or systematic sampling procedure, 27% had random sampling. The concordance with surgeon claims was 80% (kappa statistic 0.69, 95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.79). Concordance between independent audits of the operation notes and either the pathology report (kappa 0.14, 95% confidence interval: 0.04 to 0.23) or surgeon claims (kappa 0.09, 95% confidence interval: 0.03 to 0.22) was poor. A prelabeled specimen collection kit and checklist significantly narrowed the communication gap between surgeons and pathologists in identifying the extent of lymphadenectomy. Audit of surgeons' operation notes did not accurately reflect the procedure performed, bringing its value for quality improvement work into question. Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Immortal time bias in observational studies of drug effects in pregnancy.

PubMed

Matok, Ilan; Azoulay, Laurent; Yin, Hui; Suissa, Samy

2014-09-01

The use of decongestants during the second or third trimesters of pregnancy has been associated with a decreased risk of preterm delivery in two observational studies. This effect may have been subject to immortal time bias, a bias arising from the improper classification of exposure during follow-up. We illustrate this bias by repeating the studies using a different data source. The United Kingdom Hospital Episodes Statistics and the Clinical Practice Research Datalink databases were linked to identify all live singleton pregnancies among women aged 15 to 45 years between 1997 and 2012. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals of preterm delivery (before 37 weeks of gestation) by considering the use of decongestants during the third trimester as a time-fixed (biased analysis which misclassifies unexposed person-time as exposed person-time) and time-varying exposure (unbiased analysis with proper classification of unexposed person-time). All models were adjusted for maternal age, smoking status, maternal diabetes, maternal hypertension, preeclampsia, and parity. Of the 195,582 singleton deliveries, 10,248 (5.2%) were born preterm. In the time-fixed analysis, the HR of preterm delivery for the use of decongestants was below the null and suggestive of a 46% decreased risk (adjusted HR = 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.20). In contrast, the HR was closer to null (adjusted HR = 0.93 95% confidence interval, 0.42-2.06) when the use of decongestants was treated as a time-varying variable. Studies of drug safety in pregnancy should use the appropriate statistical techniques to avoid immortal time bias, particularly when the exposure occurs at later stages of pregnancy. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Task shifting to clinical officer-led echocardiography screening for detecting rheumatic heart disease in Malawi, Africa.

PubMed

Sims Sanyahumbi, Amy; Sable, Craig A; Karlsten, Melissa; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Kazembe, Peter N; Minard, Charles G; Penny, Daniel J

2017-08-01

Echocardiographic screening for rheumatic heart disease in asymptomatic children may result in early diagnosis and prevent progression. Physician-led screening is not feasible in Malawi. Task shifting to mid-level providers such as clinical officers may enable more widespread screening. Hypothesis With short-course training, clinical officers can accurately screen for rheumatic heart disease using focussed echocardiography. A total of eight clinical officers completed three half-days of didactics and 2 days of hands-on echocardiography training. Clinical officers were evaluated by performing screening echocardiograms on 20 children with known rheumatic heart disease status. They indicated whether children should be referred for follow-up. Referral was indicated if mitral regurgitation measured more than 1.5 cm or there was any measurable aortic regurgitation. The κ statistic was calculated to measure referral agreement with a paediatric cardiologist. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated using a generalised linear mixed model, and were calculated on the basis of World Heart Federation diagnostic criteria. The mean κ statistic comparing clinical officer referrals with the paediatric cardiologist was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.82). The κ value ranged from a minimum of 0.57 to a maximum of 0.90. For rheumatic heart disease diagnosis, sensitivity was 0.91 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 0.95) and specificity was 0.65 (95% confidence interval: 0.57, 0.72). There was substantial agreement between clinical officers and paediatric cardiologists on whether to refer. Clinical officers had a high sensitivity in detecting rheumatic heart disease. With short-course training, clinical officer-led echo screening for rheumatic heart disease is a viable alternative to physician-led screening in resource-limited settings.

Confidence intervals for effect sizes: compliance and clinical significance in the Journal of Consulting and clinical Psychology.

PubMed

Odgaard, Eric C; Fowler, Robert L

2010-06-01

In 2005, the Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (JCCP) became the first American Psychological Association (APA) journal to require statistical measures of clinical significance, plus effect sizes (ESs) and associated confidence intervals (CIs), for primary outcomes (La Greca, 2005). As this represents the single largest editorial effort to improve statistical reporting practices in any APA journal in at least a decade, in this article we investigate the efficacy of that change. All intervention studies published in JCCP in 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 were reviewed. Each article was coded for method of clinical significance, type of ES, and type of associated CI, broken down by statistical test (F, t, chi-square, r/R(2), and multivariate modeling). By 2008, clinical significance compliance was 75% (up from 31%), with 94% of studies reporting some measure of ES (reporting improved for individual statistical tests ranging from eta(2) = .05 to .17, with reasonable CIs). Reporting of CIs for ESs also improved, although only to 40%. Also, the vast majority of reported CIs used approximations, which become progressively less accurate for smaller sample sizes and larger ESs (cf. Algina & Kessleman, 2003). Changes are near asymptote for ESs and clinical significance, but CIs lag behind. As CIs for ESs are required for primary outcomes, we show how to compute CIs for the vast majority of ESs reported in JCCP, with an example of how to use CIs for ESs as a method to assess clinical significance.

Antiviral treatment of Bell's palsy based on baseline severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Turgeon, Ricky D; Wilby, Kyle J; Ensom, Mary H H

2015-06-01

We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis to evaluate the efficacy of antiviral agents on complete recovery of Bell's palsy. We searched CENTRAL, Embase, MEDLINE, International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, and sources of unpublished literature to November 1, 2014. Primary and secondary outcomes were complete and satisfactory recovery, respectively. To evaluate statistical heterogeneity, we performed subgroup analysis of baseline severity of Bell's palsy and between-study sensitivity analyses based on risk of allocation and detection bias. The 10 included randomized controlled trials (2419 patients; 807 with severe Bell's palsy at onset) had variable risk of bias, with 9 trials having a high risk of bias in at least 1 domain. Complete recovery was not statistically significantly greater with antiviral use versus no antiviral use in the random-effects meta-analysis of 6 trials (relative risk, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.97-1.16; I(2) = 65%). Conversely, random-effects meta-analysis of 9 trials showed a statistically significant difference in satisfactory recovery (relative risk, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.18; I(2) = 63%). Response to antiviral agents did not differ visually or statistically between patients with severe symptoms at baseline and those with milder disease (test for interaction, P = .11). Sensitivity analyses did not show a clear effect of bias on outcomes. Antiviral agents are not efficacious in increasing the proportion of patients with Bell's palsy who achieved complete recovery, regardless of baseline symptom severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimation of aquifer scale proportion using equal area grids: assessment of regional scale groundwater quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Belitz, Kenneth; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Landon, Matthew K.; Fram, Miranda S.; Johnson, Tyler D.

2010-01-01

The proportion of an aquifer with constituent concentrations above a specified threshold (high concentrations) is taken as a nondimensional measure of regional scale water quality. If computed on the basis of area, it can be referred to as the aquifer scale proportion. A spatially unbiased estimate of aquifer scale proportion and a confidence interval for that estimate are obtained through the use of equal area grids and the binomial distribution. Traditionally, the confidence interval for a binomial proportion is computed using either the standard interval or the exact interval. Research from the statistics literature has shown that the standard interval should not be used and that the exact interval is overly conservative. On the basis of coverage probability and interval width, the Jeffreys interval is preferred. If more than one sample per cell is available, cell declustering is used to estimate the aquifer scale proportion, and Kish's design effect may be useful for estimating an effective number of samples. The binomial distribution is also used to quantify the adequacy of a grid with a given number of cells for identifying a small target, defined as a constituent that is present at high concentrations in a small proportion of the aquifer. Case studies illustrate a consistency between approaches that use one well per grid cell and many wells per cell. The methods presented in this paper provide a quantitative basis for designing a sampling program and for utilizing existing data.

Evaluation of confidence intervals for a steady-state leaky aquifer model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Christensen, S.; Cooley, R.L.

1999-01-01

The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley [Vecchia, A.V. and Cooley, R.L., Water Resources Research, 1987, 23(7), 1237-1250] was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.The fact that dependent variables of groundwater models are generally nonlinear functions of model parameters is shown to be a potentially significant factor in calculating accurate confidence intervals for both model parameters and functions of the parameters, such as the values of dependent variables calculated by the model. The Lagrangian method of Vecchia and Cooley was used to calculate nonlinear Scheffe-type confidence intervals for the parameters and the simulated heads of a steady-state groundwater flow model covering 450 km2 of a leaky aquifer. The nonlinear confidence intervals are compared to corresponding linear intervals. As suggested by the significant nonlinearity of the regression model, linear confidence intervals are often not accurate. The commonly made assumption that widths of linear confidence intervals always underestimate the actual (nonlinear) widths was not correct. Results show that nonlinear effects can cause the nonlinear intervals to be asymmetric and either larger or smaller than the linear approximations. Prior information on transmissivities helps reduce the size of the confidence intervals, with the most notable effects occurring for the parameters on which there is prior information and for head values in parameter zones for which there is prior information on the parameters.

Outcomes After Direct Thrombectomy or Combined Intravenous and Endovascular Treatment Are Not Different.

PubMed

Abilleira, Sònia; Ribera, Aida; Cardona, Pedro; Rubiera, Marta; López-Cancio, Elena; Amaro, Sergi; Rodríguez-Campello, Ana; Camps-Renom, Pol; Cánovas, David; de Miquel, Maria Angels; Tomasello, Alejandro; Remollo, Sebastian; López-Rueda, Antonio; Vivas, Elio; Perendreu, Joan; Gallofré, Miquel

2017-02-01

Whether intravenous thrombolysis adds a further benefit when given before endovascular thrombectomy (EVT) is unknown. Furthermore, intravenous thrombolysis delays time to groin puncture, mainly among drip and ship patients. Using region-wide registry data, we selected cases that received direct EVT or combined intravenous thrombolysis+EVT for anterior circulation strokes between January 2011 and October 2015. Treatment effect was estimated by stratification on a propensity score. The average odds ratios for the association of treatment with good outcome and death at 3 months and symptomatic bleedings at 24 hours were calculated with the Mantel-Haenszel test statistic. We included 599 direct EVT patients and 567 patients with combined treatment. Stratification through propensity score achieved balance of baseline characteristics across treatment groups. There was no association between treatment modality and good outcome (odds ratio, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.27), death (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.54), or symptomatic bleedings (odds ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-1.27). This observational study suggests that outcomes after direct EVT or combined intravenous thrombolysis+EVT are not different. If confirmed by a randomized controlled trial, it may have a significant impact on organization of stroke systems of care. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A method for meta-analysis of epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Einarson, T R; Leeder, J S; Koren, G

1988-10-01

This article presents a stepwise approach for conducting a meta-analysis of epidemiological studies based on proposed guidelines. This systematic method is recommended for practitioners evaluating epidemiological studies in the literature to arrive at an overall quantitative estimate of the impact of a treatment. Bendectin is used as an illustrative example. Meta-analysts should establish a priori the purpose of the analysis and a complete protocol. This protocol should be adhered to, and all steps performed should be recorded in detail. To aid in developing such a protocol, we present methods the researcher can use to perform each of 22 steps in six major areas. The illustrative meta-analysis confirmed previous traditional narrative literature reviews that Bendectin is not related to teratogenic outcomes in humans. The overall summary odds ratio was 1.01 (chi 2 = 0.05, p = 0.815) with a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.66-1.55. When the studies were separated according to study type, the summary odds ratio for cohort studies was 0.95 with a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.62-1.45. For case-control studies, the summary odds ratio was 1.27 with a 95 percent confidence interval of 0.83-1.94. The corresponding chi-square values were not statistically significant at the p = 0.05 level.

Age-dependent biochemical quantities: an approach for calculating reference intervals.

PubMed

Bjerner, J

2007-01-01

A parametric method is often preferred when calculating reference intervals for biochemical quantities, as non-parametric methods are less efficient and require more observations/study subjects. Parametric methods are complicated, however, because of three commonly encountered features. First, biochemical quantities seldom display a Gaussian distribution, and there must either be a transformation procedure to obtain such a distribution or a more complex distribution has to be used. Second, biochemical quantities are often dependent on a continuous covariate, exemplified by rising serum concentrations of MUC1 (episialin, CA15.3) with increasing age. Third, outliers often exert substantial influence on parametric estimations and therefore need to be excluded before calculations are made. The International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) currently recommends that confidence intervals be calculated for the reference centiles obtained. However, common statistical packages allowing for the adjustment of a continuous covariate do not make this calculation. In the method described in the current study, Tukey's fence is used to eliminate outliers and two-stage transformations (modulus-exponential-normal) in order to render Gaussian distributions. Fractional polynomials are employed to model functions for mean and standard deviations dependent on a covariate, and the model is selected by maximum likelihood. Confidence intervals are calculated for the fitted centiles by combining parameter estimation and sampling uncertainties. Finally, the elimination of outliers was made dependent on covariates by reiteration. Though a good knowledge of statistical theory is needed when performing the analysis, the current method is rewarding because the results are of practical use in patient care.

Sex-specific reference intervals of hematologic and biochemical analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats using the nonparametric rank percentile method.

PubMed

He, Qili; Su, Guoming; Liu, Keliang; Zhang, Fangcheng; Jiang, Yong; Gao, Jun; Liu, Lida; Jiang, Zhongren; Jin, Minwu; Xie, Huiping

2017-01-01

Hematologic and biochemical analytes of Sprague-Dawley rats are commonly used to determine effects that were induced by treatment and to evaluate organ dysfunction in toxicological safety assessments, but reference intervals have not been well established for these analytes. Reference intervals as presently defined for these analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats have not used internationally recommended statistical method nor stratified by sex. Thus, we aimed to establish sex-specific reference intervals for hematologic and biochemical parameters in Sprague-Dawley rats according to Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute C28-A3 and American Society for Veterinary Clinical Pathology guideline. Hematology and biochemistry blood samples were collected from 500 healthy Sprague-Dawley rats (250 males and 250 females) in the control groups. We measured 24 hematologic analytes with the Sysmex XT-2100i analyzer, 9 biochemical analytes with the Olympus AU400 analyzer. We then determined statistically relevant sex partitions and calculated reference intervals, including corresponding 90% confidence intervals, using nonparametric rank percentile method. We observed that most hematologic and biochemical analytes of Sprague-Dawley rats were significantly influenced by sex. Males had higher hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, red cell distribution width, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, white blood cell count, neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of monocytes, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and triglycerides compared to females. Females had higher mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, plateletcrit, platelet count, eosinophils, percentage of lymphocytes, percentage of eosinophils, creatinine, glucose, total cholesterol and urea compared to males. Sex partition was required for most hematologic and biochemical analytes in Sprague-Dawley rats. We established sex-specific reference intervals, including corresponding 90% confidence intervals, for Sprague-Dawley rats. Understanding the significant discrepancies in hematologic and biochemical analytes between male and female Sprague-Dawley rats provides important insight into physiological effects in test rats. Establishment of locally sex-specific reference intervals allows a more precise evaluation of animal quality and experimental results of Sprague-Dawley rats in our toxicology safety assessment.

Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

2012-11-01

Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Statistics for Radiology Research.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Subhas, Naveen; Polster, Joshua

2017-02-01

Biostatistics is an essential component in most original research studies in imaging. In this article we discuss five key statistical concepts for study design and analyses in modern imaging research: statistical hypothesis testing, particularly focusing on noninferiority studies; imaging outcomes especially when there is no reference standard; dealing with the multiplicity problem without spending all your study power; relevance of confidence intervals in reporting and interpreting study results; and finally tools for assessing quantitative imaging biomarkers. These concepts are presented first as examples of conversations between investigator and biostatistician, and then more detailed discussions of the statistical concepts follow. Three skeletal radiology examples are used to illustrate the concepts. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Examination of two methods for statistical analysis of data with magnitude and direction emphasizing vestibular research applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Calkins, D. S.

1998-01-01

When the dependent (or response) variable response variable in an experiment has direction and magnitude, one approach that has been used for statistical analysis involves splitting magnitude and direction and applying univariate statistical techniques to the components. However, such treatment of quantities with direction and magnitude is not justifiable mathematically and can lead to incorrect conclusions about relationships among variables and, as a result, to flawed interpretations. This note discusses a problem with that practice and recommends mathematically correct procedures to be used with dependent variables that have direction and magnitude for 1) computation of mean values, 2) statistical contrasts of and confidence intervals for means, and 3) correlation methods.

Plasma Klotho and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults: Findings From the InCHIANTI Study

PubMed Central

Semba, Richard D.; Rosano, Caterina; Kalyani, Rita R.; Bandinelli, Stefania; Chia, Chee W.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2016-01-01

Background. The hormone klotho, encoded by the gene klotho, is primarily expressed in the kidney and choroid plexus of the brain. Higher klotho concentrations and certain genetic variants of klotho have been linked to better cognition; however, it is unknown whether klotho relates prospectively to slower cognitive decline in older adults. Methods: Plasma klotho was measured in 833 participants aged 55 or older without dementia enrolled in InCHIANTI, a prospective cohort study comprising Italian adults. Cognition was measured by Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Trail-Making Tests A and B (Trails A and Trails B) at enrollment and at 3 and 6 years after enrollment. We assessed whether klotho concentrations measured at the 3-year visit related to cognition and cognitive decline. Results: Each additional natural logarithm of klotho (pg/mL) was associated with 35% lower risk of meaningful decline in MMSE, defined as decline exceeding three points (relative risk = 0.65; 95% confidence interval 0.45, 0.95; p value = .02), and 0.75-point smaller average 3-year decline (baseline to 3-year visit) in MMSE (95% confidence interval 0.02, 1.48; p value = .04). No statistically significant associations were found between klotho and declining Trails A (relative risk = 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.75, 1.32; p value = .97) and B (relative risk = 1.02; 95% confidence interval 0.84, 1.24; p value = .82). Conclusions: Higher plasma klotho concentrations were associated with lower risk of meaningful decline and smaller average decline in MMSE. We did not observe such findings with Trails A and B, perhaps because they test executive function and motor skills, whereas MMSE measures global cognition. Future studies should investigate mechanisms through which klotho may affect domain-specific cognitive changes. PMID:26297657

The effect of growth hormone replacement in patients with hypopituitarism on pituitary tumor recurrence, secondary cancer, and stroke.

PubMed

Jasim, Sina; Alahdab, Fares; Ahmed, Ahmed T; Tamhane, Shrikant U; Sharma, Anu; Donegan, Diane; Nippoldt, Todd B; Murad, M Hassan

2017-05-01

Growth hormone replacement therapy has benefits for patients with hypopituitarism. The safety profile in regard to tumor recurrence or progression, development of secondary malignancies, or cerebrovascular stroke is still an area of debate. A comprehensive search of multiple databases-MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Scopus was conducted through August 2015. Eligible studies that evaluated long-term adverse events in adult patients with hypopituitarism treated with growth hormone replacement therapy and reported development of pituitary tumor recurrence or progression, secondary malignancies, or cerebrovascular stroke were selected following a predefined protocol. Reviewers, independently and in duplicate, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. Random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool relative risks and 95 % confidence intervals. We included 15 studies (published 1995-2015) that reported on 46,148 patients. Compared to non-replacement, growth hormone replacement therapy in adults with hypopituitarism was not associated with statistically significant change in pituitary tumor progression or recurrence (relative risk, 0.77; 95 % confidence interval, 0.53-1.13) or development of secondary malignancy (relative risk, 0.99; 95 % confidence interval, 0.70-1.39). In two retrospective studies, there was higher risk of stroke in patients who did not receive replacement (relative risk, 2.07; 95 % confidence interval, 1.51-2.83). The quality of evidence is low due to study limitations and imprecision. This systematic review and meta-analysis supports the overall safety of growth hormone therapeutic use in adults with hypopituitarism with no clear evidence of increased risk of pituitary tumor recurrence, malignancy, or stroke.

Education level and inequalities in stroke reperfusion therapy: observations in the Swedish stroke register.

PubMed

Stecksén, Anna; Glader, Eva-Lotta; Asplund, Kjell; Norrving, Bo; Eriksson, Marie

2014-09-01

Previous studies have revealed inequalities in stroke treatment based on demographics, hospital type, and region. We used the Swedish Stroke Register (Riksstroke) to test whether patient education level is associated with reperfusion (either or both of thrombolysis and thrombectomy) treatment. We included 85 885 patients with ischemic stroke aged 18 to 80 years registered in Riksstroke between 2003 and 2009. Education level was retrieved from Statistics Sweden, and thrombolysis, thrombectomy, patient, and hospital data were obtained from Riksstroke. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyze the association between reperfusion therapy and patient education. A total of 3649 (4.2%) of the patients received reperfusion therapy. University-educated patients were more likely to be treated (5.5%) than patients with secondary (4.6%) or primary education (3.6%; P<0.001). The inequality associated with education was still present after adjustment for patient characteristics; university education odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.26 and secondary education odds ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.17 compared with primary education. Higher hospital specialization level was also associated with higher reperfusion levels (P<0.001). In stratified multivariable analyses by hospital type, significant treatment differences by education level existed only among large nonuniversity hospitals (university education odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.40; secondary education odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.29). We demonstrated a social stratification in reperfusion, partly explained by patient characteristics and the local hospital specialization level. Further studies should address treatment delays, stroke knowledge, and means to improve reperfusion implementation in less specialized hospitals. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Retrograde pyelography predicts retrograde ureteral stenting failure and reduces unnecessary stenting trials in patients with advanced non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction

PubMed Central

Kim, Sung Han; Park, Boram; Joo, Jungnam; Joung, Jae Young; Seo, Ho Kyung; Chung, Jinsoo; Lee, Kang Hyun

2017-01-01

Objective To evaluate predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure in patients with non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction. Materials and methods Between 2005 and 2014, medical records of 284 malignant ureteral obstruction patients with 712 retrograde ureteral stent trials including 63 (22.2%) having bilateral malignant ureteral obstruction were retrospectively reviewed. Retrograde ureteral stent failure was defined as the inability to place ureteral stents by cystoscopy, recurrent stent obstruction within one month, or non-relief of azotemia within one week from the prior retrograde ureteral stent. The clinicopathological parameters and first retrograde pyelographic findings were analyzed to investigate the predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure and conversion to percutaneous nephrostomy in multivariate analysis with a statistical significance of p < 0.05. Results Retrograde ureteral stent failure was detected in 14.1% of patients. The mean number of retrograde ureteral stent placements and indwelling duration of the ureteral stents were 2.5 ± 2.6 times and 8.6 ± 4.0 months, respectively. Multivariate analyses identified several specific RGP findings as significant predictive factors for retrograde ureteral stent failure (p < 0.05). The significant retrograde pyelographic findings included grade 4 hydronephrosis (hazard ratio 4.10, 95% confidence interval 1.39–12.09), irreversible ureteral kinking (hazard ratio 2.72, confidence interval 1.03–7.18), presence of bladder invasion (hazard ratio 4.78, confidence interval 1.81–12.63), and multiple lesions of ureteral stricture (hazard ratio 3.46, confidence interval 1.35–8.83) (p < 0.05). Conclusion Retrograde pyelography might prevent unnecessary and ineffective retrograde ureteral stent trials in patients with advanced non-urological malignant ureteral obstruction. PMID:28931043

Comparison of Risk Factor Control in the Year After Discharge for Ischemic Stroke Versus Acute Myocardial Infarction.

PubMed

Bravata, Dawn M; Daggy, Joanne; Brosch, Jared; Sico, Jason J; Baye, Fitsum; Myers, Laura J; Roumie, Christianne L; Cheng, Eric; Coffing, Jessica; Arling, Greg

2018-02-01

The Veterans Health Administration has engaged in quality improvement to improve vascular risk factor control. We sought to examine blood pressure (<140/90 mm Hg), lipid (LDL [low-density lipoprotein] cholesterol <100 mg/dL), and glycemic control (hemoglobin A1c <9%), in the year post-hospitalization for acute ischemic stroke or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We identified patients who were hospitalized (fiscal year 2011) with ischemic stroke, AMI, congestive heart failure, transient ischemic attack, or pneumonia/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The primary analysis compared risk factor control after incident ischemic stroke versus AMI. Facilities were included if they cared for ≥25 ischemic stroke and ≥25 AMI patients. A generalized linear mixed model including patient- and facility-level covariates compared risk factor control across diagnoses. Forty thousand two hundred thirty patients were hospitalized (n=75 facilities): 2127 with incident ischemic stroke and 4169 with incident AMI. Fewer stroke patients achieved blood pressure control than AMI patients (64%; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.67 versus 77%; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.78; P <0.0001). After adjusting for patient and facility covariates, the odds of blood pressure control were still higher for AMI than ischemic stroke patients (odds ratio, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.51). There were no statistical differences for AMI versus stroke patients in hyperlipidemia ( P =0.534). Among patients with diabetes mellitus, the odds of glycemic control were lower for AMI than ischemic stroke patients (odds ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.96). Given that hypertension control is a cornerstone of stroke prevention, interventions to improve poststroke hypertension management are needed. © 2017 The Authors.

Associations between age-related nuclear cataract and lutein and zeaxanthin in the diet and serum in the Carotenoids in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study, an Ancillary Study of the Women's Health Initiative.

PubMed

Moeller, Suzen M; Voland, Rick; Tinker, Lesley; Blodi, Barbara A; Klein, Michael L; Gehrs, Karen M; Johnson, Elizabeth J; Snodderly, D Max; Wallace, Robert B; Chappell, Richard J; Parekh, Niyati; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Mares, Julie A

2008-03-01

To evaluate associations between nuclear cataract (determined from slitlamp photographs between May 2001 and January 2004) and lutein and zeaxanthin in the diet and serum in patients between 1994 and 1998 and macula between 2001 and 2004. A total of 1802 women aged 50 to 79 years in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon with intakes of lutein and zeaxanthin above the 78th (high) and below the 28th (low) percentiles in the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (1994-1998) were recruited 4 to 7 years later (2001-2004) into the Carotenoids in Age-Related Eye Disease Study. Women in the group with high dietary levels of lutein and zeaxanthin had a 23% lower prevalence of nuclear cataract (age-adjusted odds ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.96) compared with those with low levels. Multivariable adjustment slightly attenuated the association (odds ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.01). Women in the highest quintile category of diet or serum levels of lutein and zeaxanthin as compared with those in the lowest quintile category were 32% less likely to have nuclear cataract (multivariable-adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.97; P for trend = .04; and multivariable-adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.47-0.98; P for trend = .01, respectively). Cross-sectional associations with macular pigment density were inverse but not statistically significant. Diets rich in lutein and zeaxanthin are moderately associated with decreased prevalence of nuclear cataract in older women. However, other protective aspects of such diets may in part explain these relationships.

Effects of Low-Carbohydrate Diets Versus Low-Fat Diets on Metabolic Risk Factors: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Clinical Trials

PubMed Central

Hu, Tian; Mills, Katherine T.; Yao, Lu; Demanelis, Kathryn; Eloustaz, Mohamed; Yancy, William S.; Kelly, Tanika N.; He, Jiang; Bazzano, Lydia A.

2012-01-01

The effects of low-carbohydrate diets (≤45% of energy from carbohydrates) versus low-fat diets (≤30% of energy from fat) on metabolic risk factors were compared in a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials. Twenty-three trials from multiple countries with a total of 2,788 participants met the predetermined eligibility criteria (from January 1, 1966 to June 20, 2011) and were included in the analyses. Data abstraction was conducted in duplicate by independent investigators. Both low-carbohydrate and low-fat diets lowered weight and improved metabolic risk factors. Compared with participants on low-fat diets, persons on low-carbohydrate diets experienced a slightly but statistically significantly lower reduction in total cholesterol (2.7 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: 0.8, 4.6), and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.7 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: 1.0, 6.4), but a greater increase in high density lipoprotein cholesterol (3.3 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: 1.9, 4.7) and a greater decrease in triglycerides (−14.0 mg/dL; 95% confidence interval: −19.4, −8.7). Reductions in body weight, waist circumference and other metabolic risk factors were not significantly different between the 2 diets. These findings suggest that low-carbohydrate diets are at least as effective as low-fat diets at reducing weight and improving metabolic risk factors. Low-carbohydrate diets could be recommended to obese persons with abnormal metabolic risk factors for the purpose of weight loss. Studies demonstrating long-term effects of low-carbohydrate diets on cardiovascular events were warranted. PMID:23035144

Improving Adherence to Secondary Stroke Prevention Strategies Through Motivational Interviewing: Randomized Controlled Trial.

PubMed

Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Krishnamurthi, Rita; Witt, Emma; Feigin, Valery; Jones, Amy; McPherson, Kathryn; Starkey, Nicola; Parag, Varsha; Jiang, Yannan; Barber, P Alan; Rush, Elaine; Bennett, Derrick; Aroll, Bruce

2015-12-01

Stroke recurrence rates are high (20%-25%) and have not declined over past 3 decades. This study tested effectiveness of motivational interviewing (MI) for reducing stroke recurrence, measured by improving adherence to recommended medication and lifestyle changes compared with usual care. Single-blind, prospective phase III randomized controlled trial of 386 people with stroke assigned to either MI treatment (4 sessions at 28 days, 3, 6, and 9 months post stroke) or usual care; with outcomes assessed at 28 days, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months post stroke. Primary outcomes were change in systolic blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels as indicators of adherence at 12 months. Secondary outcomes included self-reported adherence, new stroke, or coronary heart disease events (both fatal and nonfatal); quality of life (Short Form-36); and mood (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale). MI did not significantly change measures of blood pressure (mean difference in change, -0.2.35 [95% confidence interval, -6.16 to 1.47]) or cholesterol (mean difference in change, -0.0.12 [95% confidence interval, -0.30 to 0.06]). However, it had positive effects on self-reported medication adherence at 6 months (1.979; 95% confidence interval, 0.98-3.98; P=0.0557) and 9 months (4.295; 95% confidence interval, 1.56-11.84; P=0.0049) post stroke. Improvement across other measures was also observed, but the differences between MI and usual care groups were not statistically significant. MI improved self-reported medication adherence. All other effects were nonsignificant, though in the direction of a treatment effect. Further study is required to determine whether MI leads to improvement in other important areas of functioning (eg, caregiver burden). URL: http://www.anzctr.org.au. Unique identifier: ACTRN-12610000715077. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

The association of low socioeconomic status and the risk of having a child with Down syndrome: a report from the National Down Syndrome Project.

PubMed

Hunter, Jessica Ezzell; Allen, Emily Graves; Shin, Mikyong; Bean, Lora J H; Correa, Adolfo; Druschel, Charlotte; Hobbs, Charlotte A; O'Leary, Leslie A; Romitti, Paul A; Royle, Marjorie H; Torfs, Claudine P; Freeman, Sallie B; Sherman, Stephanie L

2013-09-01

Advanced maternal age and altered recombination are known risk factors for Down syndrome cases due to maternal nondisjunction of chromosome 21, whereas the impact of other environmental and genetic factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate an association between low maternal socioeconomic status and chromosome 21 nondisjunction. Data from 714 case and 977 control families were used to assess chromosome 21 meiosis I and meiosis II nondisjunction errors in the presence of three low socioeconomic status factors: (i) both parents had not completed high school, (ii) both maternal grandparents had not completed high school, and (iii) an annual household income of <$25,000. We applied logistic regression models and adjusted for covariates, including maternal age and race/ethnicity. As compared with mothers of controls (n = 977), mothers with meiosis II chromosome 21 nondisjunction (n = 182) were more likely to have a history of one low socioeconomic status factor (odds ratio = 1.81; 95% confidence interval = 1.07-3.05) and ≥2 low socioeconomic status factors (odds ratio = 2.17; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-4.63). This association was driven primarily by having a low household income (odds ratio = 1.79; 95% confidence interval = 1.14-2.73). The same statistically significant association was not detected among maternal meiosis I errors (odds ratio = 1.31; 95% confidence interval = 0.81-2.10), in spite of having a larger sample size (n = 532). We detected a significant association between low maternal socioeconomic status and meiosis II chromosome 21 nondisjunction. Further studies are warranted to explore which aspects of low maternal socioeconomic status, such as environmental exposures or poor nutrition, may account for these results.

Blood Loss and Transfusion After Topical Tranexamic Acid Administration in Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty.

PubMed

Wang, Hao; Shen, Bin; Zeng, Yi

2015-11-01

There has been much debate and controversy about the safety and efficacy of the topical use of tranexamic acid in primary total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The purpose of this study was to perform a meta-analysis to evaluate whether there is less blood loss and lower rates of transfusion after topical tranexamic acid administration in primary TKA. A systematic review of the electronic databases PubMed, CENTRAL, Web of Science, and Embase was undertaken. All randomized, controlled trials and prospective cohort studies evaluating the effectiveness of topical tranexamic acid during primary TKA were included. The focus of the analysis was on the outcomes of blood loss results, transfusion rate, and thromboembolic complications. Subgroup analysis was performed when possible. Of 387 studies identified, 16 comprising 1421 patients (1481 knees) were eligible for data extraction and meta-analysis. This study indicated that when compared with the control group, topical application of tranexamic acid significantly reduced total drain output (mean difference, -227.20; 95% confidence interval, -347.11 to -107.30; P<.00001), total blood loss (mean difference, -311.28; 95% confidence interval, -404.94 to -217.62; P<.00001), maximum postoperative hemoglobin decrease (mean difference, -0.73; 95% confidence interval, -0.96 to -0.50; P<.00001), and blood transfusion requirements (risk ratios, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.43; P=.14). The authors found a statistically significant reduction in blood loss and transfusion rates when using topical tranexamic acid in primary TKA. Furthermore, the currently available evidence does not support an increased risk of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism due to tranexamic acid administration. Topical tranexamic acid was effective for reducing postoperative blood loss and transfusion requirements without increasing the prevalence of thromboembolic complications. Copyright 2015, SLACK Incorporated.

Coffee Consumption and Coronary Artery Calcium Score: Cross-Sectional Results of ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health).

PubMed

Miranda, Andreia M; Steluti, Josiane; Goulart, Alessandra C; Benseñor, Isabela M; Lotufo, Paulo A; Marchioni, Dirce M

2018-03-24

Available evidence for the relationship between coffee intake and subclinical atherosclerosis is limited and inconsistent. This study aimed to evaluate the association between coffee consumption and coronary artery calcium (CAC) in ELSA-Brasil (Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health). This cross-sectional study is based on baseline data from participants of the ELSA-Brasil cohort. Only participants living in São Paulo, Brazil, who underwent a CAC measurement (n=4426) were included. Coffee consumption was collected using a food frequency questionnaire. CAC was detected with computed tomography and expressed as Agatston units. CAC was further categorized as an Agatson score ≥100 (CAC ≥100). In multiple logistic regression analysis considering intake of coffee and smoking status interaction, significant inverse associations were observed between coffee consumption (>3 cups/d) and CAC≥100 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.58-1.24] for ≤1 cup/d; OR: 0.73 [95% confidence interval, 0.51-1.05] for 1-3 cups/d; OR: 0.33 [95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.65] for >3 cups/d). Moreover, there was a statistically significant interaction effect for coffee consumption and smoking status ( P =0.028 for interaction). After stratification by smoking status, the analysis revealed a lower OR of coronary calcification in never smokers drinking >3 cups/d (OR: 0.37 [95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.91]), whereas among current and former smokers, the intake of coffee was not significantly associated with coronary calcification. Habitual consumption of >3 cups/d of coffee decreased odds of subclinical atherosclerosis among never smokers. The consumption of coffee could exert a potential beneficial effect against coronary calcification, particularly in nonsmokers. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Cardiac rehabilitation after percutaneous coronary intervention: Results from a nationwide survey.

PubMed

Olsen, Siv Js; Schirmer, Henrik; Bønaa, Kaare H; Hanssen, Tove A

2018-03-01

The purpose of this study was to estimate the proportion of Norwegian coronary heart disease patients participating in cardiac rehabilitation programmes after percutaneous coronary intervention, and to determine predictors of cardiac rehabilitation participation. Participants were patients enrolled in the Norwegian Coronary Stent Trial. We assessed cardiac rehabilitation participation in 9013 of these patients who had undergone their first percutaneous coronary intervention during 2008-2011. Of these, 7068 patients (82%) completed a self-administered questionnaire on cardiac rehabilitation participation within three years after their percutaneous coronary intervention. Twenty-eight per cent of the participants reported engaging in cardiac rehabilitation. Participation rate differed among the four regional health authorities in Norway, varying from 20%-31%. Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention for an acute coronary syndrome were more likely to participate in cardiac rehabilitation than patients with stable angina (odds ratio 3.2; 95% confidence interval 2.74-3.76). A multivariate statistical model revealed that men had a 28% lower probability ( p<0.001) of participating in cardiac rehabilitation, and the odds of attending cardiac rehabilitation decreased with increasing age ( p<0.001). Contributors to higher odds of cardiac rehabilitation participation were educational level >12 years (odds ratio 1.50; 95% confidence interval 1.32-1.71) and body mass index>25 (odds ratio 1.19; 95% confidence interval 1.05-1.36). Prior coronary artery bypass graft was associated with lower odds of cardiac rehabilitation participation (odds ratio 0.47; 95% confidence interval 0.32-0.70) Conclusion: The estimated cardiac rehabilitation participation rate among patients undergoing first-time percutaneous coronary intervention is low in Norway. The typical participant is young, overweight, well-educated, and had an acute coronary event. These results varied by geographical region.

Association between divorce and risks for acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Dupre, Matthew E; George, Linda K; Liu, Guangya; Peterson, Eric D

2015-05-01

Divorce is a major life stressor that can have economic, emotional, and physical health consequences. However, the cumulative association between divorce and risks for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown. This study investigated the association between lifetime exposure to divorce and the incidence of AMI in US adults. We used nationally representative data from a prospective cohort of ever-married adults aged 45 to 80 years (n=15,827) who were followed biennially from 1992 to 2010. Approximately 14% of men and 19% of women were divorced at baseline and more than one third of the cohort had ≥1 divorce in their lifetime. In 200,524 person-years of follow-up, 8% (n=1211) of the cohort had an AMI and age-specific rates of AMI were consistently higher in those who were divorced compared with those who were continuously married (P<0.05). Results from competing-risk hazard models showed that AMI risks were significantly higher in women who had 1 divorce (hazard ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.55), ≥2 divorces (hazard ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.41), and among the remarried (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.70) compared with continuously married women after adjusting for multiple risk factors. Multivariable-adjusted risks were elevated only in men with a history of ≥2 divorces (hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.66) compared with continuously married men. Men who remarried had no significant risk for AMI. Interaction terms for sex were not statistically significant. Divorce is a significant risk factor for AMI. The risks associated with multiple divorces are especially high in women and are not reduced with remarriage. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

PubMed

Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

2011-05-01

Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner.

CAN'T MISS--conquer any number task by making important statistics simple. Part 2. Probability, populations, samples, and normal distributions.

PubMed

Hansen, John P

2003-01-01

Healthcare quality improvement professionals need to understand and use inferential statistics to interpret sample data from their organizations. In quality improvement and healthcare research studies all the data from a population often are not available, so investigators take samples and make inferences about the population by using inferential statistics. This three-part series will give readers an understanding of the concepts of inferential statistics as well as the specific tools for calculating confidence intervals for samples of data. This article, Part 2, describes probability, populations, and samples. The uses of descriptive and inferential statistics are outlined. The article also discusses the properties and probability of normal distributions, including the standard normal distribution.

Exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals for output from groundwater flow models: 2. Combined use of hydrogeologic information and calibration data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.

1993-01-01

Calibration data (observed values corresponding to model-computed values of dependent variables) are incorporated into a general method of computing exact Scheffé-type confidence intervals analogous to the confidence intervals developed in part 1 (Cooley, this issue) for a function of parameters derived from a groundwater flow model. Parameter uncertainty is specified by a distribution of parameters conditioned on the calibration data. This distribution was obtained as a posterior distribution by applying Bayes' theorem to the hydrogeologically derived prior distribution of parameters from part 1 and a distribution of differences between the calibration data and corresponding model-computed dependent variables. Tests show that the new confidence intervals can be much smaller than the intervals of part 1 because the prior parameter variance-covariance structure is altered so that combinations of parameters that give poor model fit to the data are unlikely. The confidence intervals of part 1 and the new confidence intervals can be effectively employed in a sequential method of model construction whereby new information is used to reduce confidence interval widths at each stage.

Is the P-Value Really Dead? Assessing Inference Learning Outcomes for Social Science Students in an Introductory Statistics Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lane-Getaz, Sharon

2017-01-01

In reaction to misuses and misinterpretations of p-values and confidence intervals, a social science journal editor banned p-values from its pages. This study aimed to show that education could address misuse and abuse. This study examines inference-related learning outcomes for social science students in an introductory course supplemented with…

Correct Effect Size Estimates for Strength of Association Statistics: Comment on Odgaard and Fowler (2010)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lerner, Matthew D.; Mikami, Amori Yee

2013-01-01

Odgaard and Fowler (2010) articulated the importance of reporting confidence intervals (CIs) on effect size estimates, and they provided useful formulas for doing so. However, one of their reported formulas, pertaining to the calculation of CIs on strength of association effect sizes (e.g., R[squared] or [eta][squared]), is erroneous. This comment…

Regression Analyses on the Butterfly Ballot Effect: A Statistical Perspective of the US 2000 Election

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Dane W.

2002-01-01

The year 2000 US presidential election between Al Gore and George Bush has been the most intriguing and controversial one in American history. The state of Florida was the trigger for the controversy, mainly, due to the use of the misleading "butterfly ballot". Using prediction (or confidence) intervals for least squares regression lines…

A Comparison of Single Sample and Bootstrap Methods to Assess Mediation in Cluster Randomized Trials

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pituch, Keenan A.; Stapleton, Laura M.; Kang, Joo Youn

2006-01-01

A Monte Carlo study examined the statistical performance of single sample and bootstrap methods that can be used to test and form confidence interval estimates of indirect effects in two cluster randomized experimental designs. The designs were similar in that they featured random assignment of clusters to one of two treatment conditions and…

Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B

2007-02-01

Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China.

PubMed

Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

2016-01-01

A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson's correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008). The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke.

Evaluating the efficiency of environmental monitoring programs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, Carrie R.; Yanai, Ruth D.; Lampman, Gregory G.; Burns, Douglas A.; Driscoll, Charles T.; Lawrence, Gregory B.; Lynch, Jason; Schoch, Nina

2014-01-01

Statistical uncertainty analyses can be used to improve the efficiency of environmental monitoring, allowing sampling designs to maximize information gained relative to resources required for data collection and analysis. In this paper, we illustrate four methods of data analysis appropriate to four types of environmental monitoring designs. To analyze a long-term record from a single site, we applied a general linear model to weekly stream chemistry data at Biscuit Brook, NY, to simulate the effects of reducing sampling effort and to evaluate statistical confidence in the detection of change over time. To illustrate a detectable difference analysis, we analyzed a one-time survey of mercury concentrations in loon tissues in lakes in the Adirondack Park, NY, demonstrating the effects of sampling intensity on statistical power and the selection of a resampling interval. To illustrate a bootstrapping method, we analyzed the plot-level sampling intensity of forest inventory at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, NH, to quantify the sampling regime needed to achieve a desired confidence interval. Finally, to analyze time-series data from multiple sites, we assessed the number of lakes and the number of samples per year needed to monitor change over time in Adirondack lake chemistry using a repeated-measures mixed-effects model. Evaluations of time series and synoptic long-term monitoring data can help determine whether sampling should be re-allocated in space or time to optimize the use of financial and human resources.

Abdominal pain endpoints currently recommended by the FDA and EMA for adult patients with irritable bowel syndrome may not be reliable in children.

PubMed

Saps, M; Lavigne, J V

2015-06-01

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended ≥30% decrease on patient-reported outcomes for pain be considered clinically significant in clinical trials for adults with irritable bowel syndrome. This percent change approach may not be appropriate for children. We compared three alternate approaches to determining clinically significant reductions in pain among children. 80 children with functional abdominal pain participated in a study of the efficacy of amitriptyline. Endpoints included patient-reported estimates of feeling better, and pain Visual Analog Scale (VAS). The minimum clinically important difference in pain report was calculated as (i) mean change in VAS score for children reporting being 'better'; (ii) percent changes in pain (≥30% and ≥50%) on the VAS; and (iii) statistically reliable changes on the VAS for 68% and 95% confidence intervals. There was poor agreement between the three approaches. 43.6% of the children who met the FDA ≥30% criterion for clinically significant change did not achieve a reliable level of improvement (95% confidence interval). Children's self-reported ratings of being better may not be statistically reliable. A combined approach in which children must report improvement as better and achieve a statistically significant change may be more appropriate for outcomes in clinical trials. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Methods for the behavioral, educational, and social sciences: an R package.

PubMed

Kelley, Ken

2007-11-01

Methods for the Behavioral, Educational, and Social Sciences (MBESS; Kelley, 2007b) is an open source package for R (R Development Core Team, 2007b), an open source statistical programming language and environment. MBESS implements methods that are not widely available elsewhere, yet are especially helpful for the idiosyncratic techniques used within the behavioral, educational, and social sciences. The major categories of functions are those that relate to confidence interval formation for noncentral t, F, and chi2 parameters, confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes (which require noncentral distributions), and sample size planning issues from the power analytic and accuracy in parameter estimation perspectives. In addition, MBESS contains collections of other functions that should be helpful to substantive researchers and methodologists. MBESS is a long-term project that will continue to be updated and expanded so that important methods can continue to be made available to researchers in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences.

The effect of covariate mean differences on the standard error and confidence interval for the comparison of treatment means.

PubMed

Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

2011-05-01

The use of covariates is commonly believed to reduce the unexplained error variance and the standard error for the comparison of treatment means, but the reduction in the standard error is neither guaranteed nor uniform over different sample sizes. The covariate mean differences between the treatment conditions can inflate the standard error of the covariate-adjusted mean difference and can actually produce a larger standard error for the adjusted mean difference than that for the unadjusted mean difference. When the covariate observations are conceived of as randomly varying from one study to another, the covariate mean differences can be related to a Hotelling's T(2) . Using this Hotelling's T(2) statistic, one can always find a minimum sample size to achieve a high probability of reducing the standard error and confidence interval width for the adjusted mean difference. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

The Desire to Acquire: Forecasting the Evolution of Household Energy Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, Steven

People are constantly inventing and adopting new energy-using devices to make their lives more comfortable, convenient, connected, and entertaining. This study aggregates 134 energy-using household devices, not including major appliances, into categories based on the energy service they provide. By 2006, there were 43 energy-using devices in the average U.S. household that used over 4,700 kWh of electricity, natural gas, and gasoline. A fixed effects panel model was used to examine the relationship of demand for energy-using devices to energy price, household income, and the cost of these devices. This analysis finds that the elasticity of demand for these devices with respect to energy price is -0.52 with a 90% confidence interval of -1.04 to -0.01. The elasticity of demand to income is 0.52 (a 90% confidence interval of [-0.42, 1.46]. The cost of these devices was also statistically significant.

Data free inference with processed data products

DOE PAGES

Chowdhary, K.; Najm, H. N.

2014-07-12

Here, we consider the context of probabilistic inference of model parameters given error bars or confidence intervals on model output values, when the data is unavailable. We introduce a class of algorithms in a Bayesian framework, relying on maximum entropy arguments and approximate Bayesian computation methods, to generate consistent data with the given summary statistics. Once we obtain consistent data sets, we pool the respective posteriors, to arrive at a single, averaged density on the parameters. This approach allows us to perform accurate forward uncertainty propagation consistent with the reported statistics.

A computational statistics approach for estimating the spatial range of morphogen gradients

PubMed Central

Kanodia, Jitendra S.; Kim, Yoosik; Tomer, Raju; Khan, Zia; Chung, Kwanghun; Storey, John D.; Lu, Hang; Keller, Philipp J.; Shvartsman, Stanislav Y.

2011-01-01

A crucial issue in studies of morphogen gradients relates to their range: the distance over which they can act as direct regulators of cell signaling, gene expression and cell differentiation. To address this, we present a straightforward statistical framework that can be used in multiple developmental systems. We illustrate the developed approach by providing a point estimate and confidence interval for the spatial range of the graded distribution of nuclear Dorsal, a transcription factor that controls the dorsoventral pattern of the Drosophila embryo. PMID:22007136

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging using sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction for detection of coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Ma, Heng; Yang, Jun; Liu, Jing; Ge, Lan; An, Jing; Tang, Qing; Li, Han; Zhang, Yu; Chen, David; Wang, Yong; Liu, Jiabin; Liang, Zhigang; Lin, Kai; Jin, Lixin; Bi, Xiaoming; Li, Kuncheng; Li, Debiao

2012-04-15

Myocardial perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with sliding-window conjugate-gradient highly constrained back-projection reconstruction (SW-CG-HYPR) allows whole left ventricular coverage, improved temporal and spatial resolution and signal/noise ratio, and reduced cardiac motion-related image artifacts. The accuracy of this technique for detecting coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been determined in a large number of patients. We prospectively evaluated the diagnostic performance of myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR in patients with suspected CAD. A total of 50 consecutive patients who were scheduled for coronary angiography with suspected CAD underwent myocardial perfusion MRI with SW-CG-HYPR at 3.0 T. The perfusion defects were interpreted qualitatively by 2 blinded observers and were correlated with x-ray angiographic stenoses ≥50%. The prevalence of CAD was 56%. In the per-patient analysis, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of SW-CG-HYPR was 96% (95% confidence interval 82% to 100%), 82% (95% confidence interval 60% to 95%), 87% (95% confidence interval 70% to 96%), 95% (95% confidence interval 74% to100%), and 90% (95% confidence interval 82% to 98%), respectively. In the per-vessel analysis, the corresponding values were 98% (95% confidence interval 91% to 100%), 89% (95% confidence interval 80% to 94%), 86% (95% confidence interval 76% to 93%), 99% (95% confidence interval 93% to 100%), and 93% (95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), respectively. In conclusion, myocardial perfusion MRI using SW-CG-HYPR allows whole left ventricular coverage and high resolution and has high diagnostic accuracy in patients with suspected CAD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II: a meta-analysis of 22 studies involving 145,592 cardiac surgery procedures.

PubMed

Guida, Pietro; Mastro, Florinda; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Whitlock, Richard; Paparella, Domenico

2014-12-01

A systematic review of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (euroSCORE) II performance for prediction of operative mortality after cardiac surgery has not been performed. We conducted a meta-analysis of studies based on the predictive accuracy of the euroSCORE II. We searched the Embase and PubMed databases for all English-only articles reporting performance characteristics of the euroSCORE II. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, the observed/expected mortality ratio, and observed-expected mortality difference with their 95% confidence intervals were analyzed. Twenty-two articles were selected, including 145,592 procedures. Operative mortality occurred in 4293 (2.95%), whereas the expected events according to euroSCORE II were 4802 (3.30%). Meta-analysis of these studies provided an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.792 (95% confidence interval, 0.773-0.811), an estimated observed/expected ratio of 1.019 (95% confidence interval, 0.899-1.139), and observed-expected difference of 0.125 (95% confidence interval, -0.269 to 0.519). Statistical heterogeneity was detected among retrospective studies including less recent procedures. Subgroups analysis confirmed the robustness of combined estimates for isolated valve procedures and those combined with revascularization surgery. A significant overestimation of the euroSCORE II with an observed/expected ratio of 0.829 (95% confidence interval, 0.677-0.982) was observed in isolated coronary artery bypass grafting and a slight underestimation of predictions in high-risk patients (observed/expected ratio 1.253 and observed-expected difference 1.859). Despite the heterogeneity, the results from this meta-analysis show a good overall performance of the euroSCORE II in terms of discrimination and accuracy of model predictions for operative mortality. Validation of the euroSCORE II in prospective populations needs to be further studied for a continuous improvement of patients' risk stratification before cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2014 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computed tomography for occult fractures of the proximal femur, pelvis, and sacrum in clinical practice: single institution, dual-site experience.

PubMed

Mandell, Jacob C; Weaver, Michael J; Khurana, Bharti

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of CT for assessment of occult fractures of the proximal femur, pelvis, and sacrum. A retrospective review was performed on patients who received a CT of the hip or pelvis for suspected occult fracture after negative or equivocal radiographs performed within 24 h. The official radiology report was utilized for the determination of CT findings and calculation of sensitivity and specificity. Surgical reports, MRI reports, and clinical follow-up were used as the standard of reference. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Seventy-four patients received CT of the hip or pelvis for clinical concern for occult fracture after negative or equivocal radiographs. By the reference standard, a total of 40 fractures were present in 25/74 (33.8%) patients, including 35 conservatively treated fractures of the greater trochanter, pelvis, and sacrum, and 5 operatively treated proximal femoral fractures. A total of 14/74 (18.9%) of patients had an MRI within 1 day of CT. MRI identified an operatively treated femoral neck fracture not seen on CT and an operatively treated intertrochanteric fracture, which CT described as a greater trochanteric fracture. There were two false negative conservatively treated pelvic fractures not seen on CT but diagnosed on MRI. On a per-patient basis, CT had an overall sensitivity of 88% (22/25; 95% confidence intervals 69-97%), specificity of 98% (48/49; 95% confidence intervals 89-100%), and negative predictive value of 94%. For the five operative proximal femoral fractures, the sensitivity of CT was 60% (3/5; 95% confidence intervals 15-95%), specificity was 99% (68/69; 95% confidence intervals 92-100%), and negative predictive value was 97%. In the clinical setting of suspected occult fracture, the sensitivity of clinical CT reports for detection of any type of fracture of the proximal femur, pelvis, or sacrum was 88%. For the small number of operatively treated proximal femoral fractures seen in the study, sensitivity of CT was 60% (3/5) and negative predictive value was 97%, although the relatively few patients needing fixation precludes statistical analysis.

Prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy after cesarean is associated with reduced risk of surgical site infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yu, Lulu; Kronen, Ryan J; Simon, Laura E; Stoll, Carolyn R T; Colditz, Graham A; Tuuli, Methodius G

2018-02-01

The objective of the study was to assess the effect of prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy on surgical site infections and other wound complications in women after cesarean delivery. We searched Ovid Medline, Embase, SCOPUS, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and ClinicalTrials.gov. We included randomized controlled trials and observational studies comparing prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy with standard wound dressing for cesarean delivery. The primary outcome was surgical site infection after cesarean delivery. Secondary outcomes were composite wound complications, wound dehiscence, wound seroma, endometritis, and hospital readmission. Heterogeneity was assessed using Higgin's I 2 . Relative risks with 95% confidence intervals were calculated using random-effects models. Six randomized controlled trials and 3 cohort studies in high-risk mostly obese women met inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. Six were full-text articles, 2 published abstracts, and 1 report of trial results in ClinicalTrials.gov. Studies were also heterogeneous in the patients included and type of negative-pressure wound therapy device. The risk of surgical site infection was significantly lower with the use of prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy compared with standard wound dressing (7 studies: pooled risk ratio, 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.31-0.66; adjusted risk ratio, -6.0%, 95% confidence interval, -10.0% to -3.0%; number needed to treat, 17, 95% confidence interval, 10-34). There was no evidence of significant statistical heterogeneity (I 2  = 9.9%) or publication bias (Egger P = .532). Of the secondary outcomes, only composite wound complications were significantly reduced in patients receiving prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy compared with standard dressing (9 studies: pooled risk ratio, 0.68, 95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.94). Studies on the effectiveness of prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy at cesarean delivery are heterogeneous but suggest a reduction in surgical site infection and overall wound complications. Larger definitive trials are needed to clarify the clinical utility of prophylactic negative-pressure wound therapy after cesarean delivery. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of atomoxetine on the QT interval in healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizers

PubMed Central

Loghin, Corina; Haber, Harry; Beasley, Charles M; Kothare, Prajakti A; Kauffman, Lynnette; April, John; Jin, Ling; Allen, Albert J; Mitchell, Malcolm I

2013-01-01

Aim The effects of atomoxetine (20 and 60 mg twice daily), 400 mg moxifloxacin and placebo on QTc in 131 healthy CYP2D6 poor metabolizer males were compared. Methods Atomoxetine doses were selected to result in plasma concentrations that approximated expected plasma concentrations at both the maximum recommended dose and at a supratherapeutic dose in CYP2D6 extensive metabolizers. Ten second electrocardiograms were obtained for time-matched baseline on days −2 and −1, three time points after dosing on day 1 for moxifloxacin and five time points on day 7 for atomoxetine and placebo. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline model-corrected QT (QTcM) on day 7 was the primary endpoint. Results QTcM differences for atomoxetine 20 and 60 mg twice daily were 0.5 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 2.2 ms) and 4.2 ms (upper bound of the one-sided 95% confidence interval 6.0 ms), respectively. As plasma concentration of atomoxetine increased, a statistically significant increase in QTc was observed. The moxifloxacin difference from placebo met the a priori definition of non-inferiority. Maximum mean placebo-subtracted change from baseline QTcM for moxifloxacin was 4.8 ms and this difference was statistically significant. Moxifloxacin plasma concentrations were below the concentrations expected from the literature. However, the slope of the plasma concentration−QTc change observed was consistent with the literature. Conclusion Atomoxetine was not associated with a clinically significant change in QTc. However, a statistically significant increase in QTc was associated with increasing plasma concentrations. PMID:22803597

Statistical analyses of the relative risk.

PubMed Central

Gart, J J

1979-01-01

Let P1 be the probability of a disease in one population and P2 be the probability of a disease in a second population. The ratio of these quantities, R = P1/P2, is termed the relative risk. We consider first the analyses of the relative risk from retrospective studies. The relation between the relative risk and the odds ratio (or cross-product ratio) is developed. The odds ratio can be considered a parameter of an exponential model possessing sufficient statistics. This permits the development of exact significance tests and confidence intervals in the conditional space. Unconditional tests and intervals are also considered briefly. The consequences of misclassification errors and ignoring matching or stratifying are also considered. The various methods are extended to combination of results over the strata. Examples of case-control studies testing the association between HL-A frequencies and cancer illustrate the techniques. The parallel analyses of prospective studies are given. If P1 and P2 are small with large samples sizes the appropriate model is a Poisson distribution. This yields a exponential model with sufficient statistics. Exact conditional tests and confidence intervals can then be developed. Here we consider the case where two populations are compared adjusting for sex differences as well as for the strata (or covariate) differences such as age. The methods are applied to two examples: (1) testing in the two sexes the ratio of relative risks of skin cancer in people living in different latitudes, and (2) testing over time the ratio of the relative risks of cancer in two cities, one of which fluoridated its drinking water and one which did not. PMID:540589

Rank score and permutation testing alternatives for regression quantile estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, B.S.; Richards, J.D.; Mielke, P.W.

2006-01-01

Performance of quantile rank score tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1) were evaluated by simulation for models with p = 2 and 6 predictors, moderate collinearity among predictors, homogeneous and hetero-geneous errors, small to moderate samples (n = 20–300), and central to upper quantiles (0.50–0.99). Test statistics evaluated were the conventional quantile rank score T statistic distributed as χ2 random variable with q degrees of freedom (where q parameters are constrained by H 0:) and an F statistic with its sampling distribution approximated by permutation. The permutation F-test maintained better Type I errors than the T-test for homogeneous error models with smaller n and more extreme quantiles τ. An F distributional approximation of the F statistic provided some improvements in Type I errors over the T-test for models with > 2 parameters, smaller n, and more extreme quantiles but not as much improvement as the permutation approximation. Both rank score tests required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when heterogeneity under the alternative model increased to 5 standard deviations across the domain of X. A double permutation procedure was developed to provide valid Type I errors for the permutation F-test when null models were forced through the origin. Power was similar for conditions where both T- and F-tests maintained correct Type I errors but the F-test provided some power at smaller n and extreme quantiles when the T-test had no power because of excessively conservative Type I errors. When the double permutation scheme was required for the permutation F-test to maintain valid Type I errors, power was less than for the T-test with decreasing sample size and increasing quantiles. Confidence intervals on parameters and tolerance intervals for future predictions were constructed based on test inversion for an example application relating trout densities to stream channel width:depth.

Using an R Shiny to Enhance the Learning Experience of Confidence Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Immanuel James; Williams, Kelley Kim

2018-01-01

Many students find understanding confidence intervals difficult, especially because of the amalgamation of concepts such as confidence levels, standard error, point estimates and sample sizes. An R Shiny application was created to assist the learning process of confidence intervals using graphics and data from the US National Basketball…

Reporting of various methodological and statistical parameters in negative studies published in prominent Indian Medical Journals: a systematic review.

PubMed

Charan, J; Saxena, D

2014-01-01

Biased negative studies not only reflect poor research effort but also have an impact on 'patient care' as they prevent further research with similar objectives, leading to potential research areas remaining unexplored. Hence, published 'negative studies' should be methodologically strong. All parameters that may help a reader to judge validity of results and conclusions should be reported in published negative studies. There is a paucity of data on reporting of statistical and methodological parameters in negative studies published in Indian Medical Journals. The present systematic review was designed with an aim to critically evaluate negative studies published in prominent Indian Medical Journals for reporting of statistical and methodological parameters. Systematic review. All negative studies published in 15 Science Citation Indexed (SCI) medical journals published from India were included in present study. Investigators involved in the study evaluated all negative studies for the reporting of various parameters. Primary endpoints were reporting of "power" and "confidence interval." Power was reported in 11.8% studies. Confidence interval was reported in 15.7% studies. Majority of parameters like sample size calculation (13.2%), type of sampling method (50.8%), name of statistical tests (49.1%), adjustment of multiple endpoints (1%), post hoc power calculation (2.1%) were reported poorly. Frequency of reporting was more in clinical trials as compared to other study designs and in journals having impact factor more than 1 as compared to journals having impact factor less than 1. Negative studies published in prominent Indian medical journals do not report statistical and methodological parameters adequately and this may create problems in the critical appraisal of findings reported in these journals by its readers.

A statistical analysis of the impact of advertising signs on road safety.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Papantoniou, Panagiotis; Voulgari, Chrisoula

2013-01-01

This research aims to investigate the impact of advertising signs on road safety. An exhaustive review of international literature was carried out on the effect of advertising signs on driver behaviour and safety. Moreover, a before-and-after statistical analysis with control groups was applied on several road sites with different characteristics in the Athens metropolitan area, in Greece, in order to investigate the correlation between the placement or removal of advertising signs and the related occurrence of road accidents. Road accident data for the 'before' and 'after' periods on the test sites and the control sites were extracted from the database of the Hellenic Statistical Authority, and the selected 'before' and 'after' periods vary from 2.5 to 6 years. The statistical analysis shows no statistical correlation between road accidents and advertising signs in none of the nine sites examined, as the confidence intervals of the estimated safety effects are non-significant at 95% confidence level. This can be explained by the fact that, in the examined road sites, drivers are overloaded with information (traffic signs, directions signs, labels of shops, pedestrians and other vehicles, etc.) so that the additional information load from advertising signs may not further distract them.

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

PubMed Central

Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

PubMed

Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

2016-01-01

Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

Modified Confidence Intervals for the Mean of an Autoregressive Process.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-08-01

Validity of the method 45 3.6 Theorem 47 4 Derivation of corrections 48 Introduction 48 The zero order pivot 50 4.1 Algorithm 50 CONTENTS The first...of standard confidence intervals. There are several standard methods of setting confidence intervals in simulations, including the regener- ative... method , batch means, and time series methods . We-will focus-s on improved confidence intervals for the mean of an autoregressive process, and as such our

Temporal Comparisons of Internet Topology

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-06-01

Number CAIDA Cooperative Association of Internet Data Analysis CDN Content Delivery Network CI Confidence Interval DoS denial of service GMT Greenwich...the CAIDA data. Our methods include analysis of graph theoretical measures as well as complex network and statistical measures that will quantify the...tool that probes the Internet for topology analysis and performance [26]. Scamper uses network diagnostic tools, such as traceroute and ping, to probe

Trends and racial and ethnic disparities in the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes in Northern California: 1996-2014.

PubMed

Peng, Tiffany Y; Ehrlich, Samantha F; Crites, Yvonne; Kitzmiller, John L; Kuzniewicz, Michael W; Hedderson, Monique M; Ferrara, Assiamira

2017-02-01

Despite concern for adverse perinatal outcomes in women with diabetes mellitus before pregnancy, recent data on the prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus in the United States are lacking. The purpose of this study was to estimate changes in the prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus (all types) and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus and to estimate whether changes varied by race-ethnicity from 1996-2014. We conducted a cohort study among 655,428 pregnancies at a Northern California integrated health delivery system from 1996-2014. Logistic regression analyses provided estimates of prevalence and trends. The age-adjusted prevalence (per 100 deliveries) of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 (from 0.58 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.63] to 1.06 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.12]; P trend <.0001). Significant increases occurred in all racial-ethnic groups; the largest relative increase was among Hispanic women (121.8% [95% confidence interval, 84.4-166.7]); the smallest relative increase was among non-Hispanic white women (49.6% [95% confidence interval, 27.5-75.4]). The age-adjusted prevalence of pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 0.14 (95% confidence interval, 0.12-0.16) to 0.23 (95% confidence interval, 0.21-0.27; P trend <.0001) and from 0.42 (95% confidence interval, 0.38-0.46) to 0.78 (95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.83; P trend <.0001), respectively. The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus was in non-Hispanic white women (118.4% [95% confidence interval, 70.0-180.5]), who had the lowest increases in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (13.6% [95% confidence interval, -8.0 to 40.1]). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus was in Hispanic women (125.2% [95% confidence interval, 84.8-174.4]), followed by African American women (102.0% [95% confidence interval, 38.3-194.3]) and Asian women (93.3% [95% confidence interval, 48.9-150.9]). The prevalence of overall pregestational diabetes mellitus and pregestational type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus increased from 1996-1999 to 2012-2014 and racial-ethnic disparities were observed, possibly because of differing prevalence of maternal obesity. Targeted prevention efforts, preconception care, and disease management strategies are needed to reduce the burden of diabetes mellitus and its sequelae. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical power and effect sizes of depression research in Japan.

PubMed

Okumura, Yasuyuki; Sakamoto, Shinji

2011-06-01

Few studies have been conducted on the rationales for using interpretive guidelines for effect size, and most of the previous statistical power surveys have covered broad research domains. The present study aimed to estimate the statistical power and to obtain realistic target effect sizes of depression research in Japan. We systematically reviewed 18 leading journals of psychiatry and psychology in Japan and identified 974 depression studies that were mentioned in 935 articles published between 1990 and 2006. In 392 studies, logistic regression analyses revealed that using clinical populations was independently associated with being a statistical power of <0.80 (odds ratio 5.9, 95% confidence interval 2.9-12.0) and of <0.50 (odds ratio 4.9, 95% confidence interval 2.3-10.5). Of the studies using clinical populations, 80% did not achieve a power of 0.80 or more, and 44% did not achieve a power of 0.50 or more to detect the medium population effect sizes. A predictive model for the proportion of variance explained was developed using a linear mixed-effects model. The model was then used to obtain realistic target effect sizes in defined study characteristics. In the face of a real difference or correlation in population, many depression researchers are less likely to give a valid result than simply tossing a coin. It is important to educate depression researchers in order to enable them to conduct an a priori power analysis. © 2011 The Authors. Psychiatry and Clinical Neurosciences © 2011 Japanese Society of Psychiatry and Neurology.

The P Value Problem in Otolaryngology: Shifting to Effect Sizes and Confidence Intervals.

PubMed

Vila, Peter M; Townsend, Melanie Elizabeth; Bhatt, Neel K; Kao, W Katherine; Sinha, Parul; Neely, J Gail

2017-06-01

There is a lack of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals in the current biomedical literature. The objective of this article is to present a discussion of the recent paradigm shift encouraging the use of reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals. Although P values help to inform us about whether an effect exists due to chance, effect sizes inform us about the magnitude of the effect (clinical significance), and confidence intervals inform us about the range of plausible estimates for the general population mean (precision). Reporting effect sizes and confidence intervals is a necessary addition to the biomedical literature, and these concepts are reviewed in this article.

Primer of statistics in dental research: part I.

PubMed

Shintani, Ayumi

2014-01-01

Statistics play essential roles in evidence-based dentistry (EBD) practice and research. It ranges widely from formulating scientific questions, designing studies, collecting and analyzing data to interpreting, reporting, and presenting study findings. Mastering statistical concepts appears to be an unreachable goal among many dental researchers in part due to statistical authorities' limitations of explaining statistical principles to health researchers without elaborating complex mathematical concepts. This series of 2 articles aim to introduce dental researchers to 9 essential topics in statistics to conduct EBD with intuitive examples. The part I of the series includes the first 5 topics (1) statistical graph, (2) how to deal with outliers, (3) p-value and confidence interval, (4) testing equivalence, and (5) multiplicity adjustment. Part II will follow to cover the remaining topics including (6) selecting the proper statistical tests, (7) repeated measures analysis, (8) epidemiological consideration for causal association, and (9) analysis of agreement. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Replication of long-bone length QTL in the F9-F10 LG,SM advanced intercross.

PubMed

Norgard, Elizabeth A; Jarvis, Joseph P; Roseman, Charles C; Maxwell, Taylor J; Kenney-Hunt, Jane P; Samocha, Kaitlin E; Pletscher, L Susan; Wang, Bing; Fawcett, Gloria L; Leatherwood, Christopher J; Wolf, Jason B; Cheverud, James M

2009-04-01

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping techniques are frequently used to identify genomic regions associated with variation in phenotypes of interest. However, the F(2) intercross and congenic strain populations usually employed have limited genetic resolution resulting in relatively large confidence intervals that greatly inhibit functional confirmation of statistical results. Here we use the increased resolution of the combined F(9) and F(10) generations (n = 1455) of the LG,SM advanced intercross to fine-map previously identified QTL associated with the lengths of the humerus, ulna, femur, and tibia. We detected 81 QTL affecting long-bone lengths. Of these, 49 were previously identified in the combined F(2)-F(3) population of this intercross, while 32 represent novel contributors to trait variance. Pleiotropy analysis suggests that most QTL affect three to four long bones or serially homologous limb segments. We also identified 72 epistatic interactions involving 38 QTL and 88 novel regions. This analysis shows that using later generations of an advanced intercross greatly facilitates fine-mapping of confidence intervals, resolving three F(2)-F(3) QTL into multiple linked loci and narrowing confidence intervals of other loci, as well as allowing identification of additional QTL. Further characterization of the biological bases of these QTL will help provide a better understanding of the genetics of small variations in long-bone length.

Gamma Knife Treatment of Growing Vestibular Schwannoma in Norway: A Prospective Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Varughese, Jobin Kotakkathu, E-mail: jobinv@gmail.com; Wentzel-Larsen, Tore; Centre for Child and Adolescent Mental Health, Eastern and Southern Norway, Oslo

2012-10-01

Purpose: Gamma Knife radiosurgery (GKRS) has been increasingly used in the treatment of vestibular schwannoma (VS). Very few studies relate tumor control and post-treatment growth rates to pretreatment growth rates. Methods and Materials: We prospectively included 45 consecutive VS patients who were initially treated conservatively and then received GKRS between 2000 and 2007 because of demonstrated tumor growth. Pretreatment and post-treatment tumor volumes were estimated. Patients underwent audiograms, reported their symptoms, and responded to the Short Form General Health Survey (SF-36) questionnaire on each visit. Results: Volume doubling times before and after treatment were 1.36 years (95% confidence intervals, 1.14-1.68)more » and -13.1 years (95% confidence intervals, -111.0 to -6.94), respectively. Tumor control, defined as a post-GKRS growth rate {<=}0, was achieved in 71.1% of patients, with highest odds for tumor control among older patients and those with larger tumors. The 5-year retreatment-free survival rate was 93.9% (95% confidence intervals, 76.5-98.5). None of the clinical endpoints investigated showed statistically significant changes after GKRS, but improvement was seen in a few SF-36 parameters. Conclusions: GKRS alters the natural course of the tumor by reducing growth. Mathematic models yield poorer tumor control rates than those found by clinical assessment. Symptoms were unaffected by treatment, but quality of life was improved.« less

Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamkins, J.

2015-05-01

We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

The Cross-Correlation and Reshuffling Tests in Discerning Induced Seismicity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Ryan; Telesca, Luciano

2018-05-01

In recent years, cases of newly emergent induced clusters have increased seismic hazard and risk in locations with social, environmental, and economic consequence. Thus, the need for a quantitative and robust means to discern induced seismicity has become a critical concern. This paper reviews a Matlab-based algorithm designed to quantify the statistical confidence between two time-series datasets. Similar to prior approaches, our method utilizes the cross-correlation to delineate the strength and lag of correlated signals. In addition, use of surrogate reshuffling tests allows for the dynamic testing against statistical confidence intervals of anticipated spurious correlations. We demonstrate the robust nature of our algorithm in a suite of synthetic tests to determine the limits of accurate signal detection in the presence of noise and sub-sampling. Overall, this routine has considerable merit in terms of delineating the strength of correlated signals, one of which includes the discernment of induced seismicity from natural.

Associations Between Maternal Pregravid Obesity and Gestational Diabetes and the Timing of Pubarche in Daughters

PubMed Central

Kubo, Ai; Ferrara, Assiamira; Laurent, Cecile A.; Windham, Gayle C.; Greenspan, Louise C.; Deardorff, Julianna; Hiatt, Robert A.; Quesenberry, Charles P.; Kushi, Lawrence H.

2016-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether in utero exposure to maternal pregravid obesity and/or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) was associated with early puberty in girls. We used data from a longitudinal study of 421 mother-daughter pairs enrolled in an integrated health services organization, Kaiser Permanente Northern California (2005–2012). Girls aged 6–8 years were followed annually through ages 12–14 years. Onset of puberty was assessed using study clinic-based Tanner staging. We examined associations of self-reported pregravid obesity and maternal GDM with timing of the daughter's transition to pubertal maturation stage 2 or above for development of breasts and pubic hair, using accelerated failure time regression models with interval censoring to estimate time ratios and hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. Maternal obesity (pregravid body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) ≥30) was associated with a daughter's earlier transition to breast and pubic hair stage 2+ in comparison with girls whose mothers had pregravid BMI <25. These associations were attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for covariates. Girls whose mothers had both pregravid BMI ≥25 and GDM were at higher risk of an earlier transition to pubic hair stage 2+ than those whose mothers had neither condition (adjusted time ratio = 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.83, 0.96; hazard ratio = 2.97, 95% confidence interval: 1.52, 5.83). These findings suggest that exposure to maternal obesity and hyperglycemia places girls at higher risk of earlier pubarche. PMID:27268032

Hazard ratio estimation and inference in clinical trials with many tied event times.

PubMed

Mehrotra, Devan V; Zhang, Yiwei

2018-06-13

The medical literature contains numerous examples of randomized clinical trials with time-to-event endpoints in which large numbers of events accrued over relatively short follow-up periods, resulting in many tied event times. A generally common feature across such examples was that the logrank test was used for hypothesis testing and the Cox proportional hazards model was used for hazard ratio estimation. We caution that this common practice is particularly risky in the setting of many tied event times for two reasons. First, the estimator of the hazard ratio can be severely biased if the Breslow tie-handling approximation for the Cox model (the default in SAS and Stata software) is used. Second, the 95% confidence interval for the hazard ratio can include one even when the corresponding logrank test p-value is less than 0.05. To help establish a better practice, with applicability for both superiority and noninferiority trials, we use theory and simulations to contrast Wald and score tests based on well-known tie-handling approximations for the Cox model. Our recommendation is to report the Wald test p-value and corresponding confidence interval based on the Efron approximation. The recommended test is essentially as powerful as the logrank test, the accompanying point and interval estimates of the hazard ratio have excellent statistical properties even in settings with many tied event times, inferential alignment between the p-value and confidence interval is guaranteed, and implementation is straightforward using commonly used software. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical procedures for determination and verification of minimum reporting levels for drinking water methods.

PubMed

Winslow, Stephen D; Pepich, Barry V; Martin, John J; Hallberg, George R; Munch, David J; Frebis, Christopher P; Hedrick, Elizabeth J; Krop, Richard A

2006-01-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Ground Water and Drinking Water has developed a single-laboratory quantitation procedure: the lowest concentration minimum reporting level (LCMRL). The LCMRL is the lowest true concentration for which future recovery is predicted to fall, with high confidence (99%), between 50% and 150%. The procedure takes into account precision and accuracy. Multiple concentration replicates are processed through the entire analytical method and the data are plotted as measured sample concentration (y-axis) versus true concentration (x-axis). If the data support an assumption of constant variance over the concentration range, an ordinary least-squares regression line is drawn; otherwise, a variance-weighted least-squares regression is used. Prediction interval lines of 99% confidence are drawn about the regression. At the points where the prediction interval lines intersect with data quality objective lines of 50% and 150% recovery, lines are dropped to the x-axis. The higher of the two values is the LCMRL. The LCMRL procedure is flexible because the data quality objectives (50-150%) and the prediction interval confidence (99%) can be varied to suit program needs. The LCMRL determination is performed during method development only. A simpler procedure for verification of data quality objectives at a given minimum reporting level (MRL) is also presented. The verification procedure requires a single set of seven samples taken through the entire method procedure. If the calculated prediction interval is contained within data quality recovery limits (50-150%), the laboratory performance at the MRL is verified.

Quantile regression models of animal habitat relationships

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cade, Brian S.

2003-01-01

Typically, all factors that limit an organism are not measured and included in statistical models used to investigate relationships with their environment. If important unmeasured variables interact multiplicatively with the measured variables, the statistical models often will have heterogeneous response distributions with unequal variances. Quantile regression is an approach for estimating the conditional quantiles of a response variable distribution in the linear model, providing a more complete view of possible causal relationships between variables in ecological processes. Chapter 1 introduces quantile regression and discusses the ordering characteristics, interval nature, sampling variation, weighting, and interpretation of estimates for homogeneous and heterogeneous regression models. Chapter 2 evaluates performance of quantile rankscore tests used for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). A permutation F test maintained better Type I errors than the Chi-square T test for models with smaller n, greater number of parameters p, and more extreme quantiles τ. Both versions of the test required weighting to maintain correct Type I errors when there was heterogeneity under the alternative model. An example application related trout densities to stream channel width:depth. Chapter 3 evaluates a drop in dispersion, F-ratio like permutation test for hypothesis testing and constructing confidence intervals for linear quantile regression estimates (0 ≤ τ ≤ 1). Chapter 4 simulates from a large (N = 10,000) finite population representing grid areas on a landscape to demonstrate various forms of hidden bias that might occur when the effect of a measured habitat variable on some animal was confounded with the effect of another unmeasured variable (spatially and not spatially structured). Depending on whether interactions of the measured habitat and unmeasured variable were negative (interference interactions) or positive (facilitation interactions), either upper (τ > 0.5) or lower (τ < 0.5) quantile regression parameters were less biased than mean rate parameters. Sampling (n = 20 - 300) simulations demonstrated that confidence intervals constructed by inverting rankscore tests provided valid coverage of these biased parameters. Quantile regression was used to estimate effects of physical habitat resources on a bivalve mussel (Macomona liliana) in a New Zealand harbor by modeling the spatial trend surface as a cubic polynomial of location coordinates.

A comparison of Probability Of Detection (POD) data determined using different statistical methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fahr, A.; Forsyth, D.; Bullock, M.

1993-12-01

Different statistical methods have been suggested for determining probability of detection (POD) data for nondestructive inspection (NDI) techniques. A comparative assessment of various methods of determining POD was conducted using results of three NDI methods obtained by inspecting actual aircraft engine compressor disks which contained service induced cracks. The study found that the POD and 95 percent confidence curves as a function of crack size as well as the 90/95 percent crack length vary depending on the statistical method used and the type of data. The distribution function as well as the parameter estimation procedure used for determining POD and the confidence bound must be included when referencing information such as the 90/95 percent crack length. The POD curves and confidence bounds determined using the range interval method are very dependent on information that is not from the inspection data. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) method does not require such information and the POD results are more reasonable. The log-logistic function appears to model POD of hit/miss data relatively well and is easy to implement. The log-normal distribution using MLE provides more realistic POD results and is the preferred method. Although it is more complicated and slower to calculate, it can be implemented on a common spreadsheet program.

Asymptotic formulae for likelihood-based tests of new physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Glen; Cranmer, Kyle; Gross, Eilam; Vitells, Ofer

2011-02-01

We describe likelihood-based statistical tests for use in high energy physics for the discovery of new phenomena and for construction of confidence intervals on model parameters. We focus on the properties of the test procedures that allow one to account for systematic uncertainties. Explicit formulae for the asymptotic distributions of test statistics are derived using results of Wilks and Wald. We motivate and justify the use of a representative data set, called the "Asimov data set", which provides a simple method to obtain the median experimental sensitivity of a search or measurement as well as fluctuations about this expectation.

Statistical inference for extended or shortened phase II studies based on Simon's two-stage designs.

PubMed

Zhao, Junjun; Yu, Menggang; Feng, Xi-Ping

2015-06-07

Simon's two-stage designs are popular choices for conducting phase II clinical trials, especially in the oncology trials to reduce the number of patients placed on ineffective experimental therapies. Recently Koyama and Chen (2008) discussed how to conduct proper inference for such studies because they found that inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan used. In particular, they proposed an inference method for studies when the actual second stage sample sizes differ from planned ones. We consider an alternative inference method based on likelihood ratio. In particular, we order permissible sample paths under Simon's two-stage designs using their corresponding conditional likelihood. In this way, we can calculate p-values using the common definition: the probability of obtaining a test statistic value at least as extreme as that observed under the null hypothesis. In addition to providing inference for a couple of scenarios where Koyama and Chen's method can be difficult to apply, the resulting estimate based on our method appears to have certain advantage in terms of inference properties in many numerical simulations. It generally led to smaller biases and narrower confidence intervals while maintaining similar coverages. We also illustrated the two methods in a real data setting. Inference procedures used with Simon's designs almost always ignore the actual sampling plan. Reported P-values, point estimates and confidence intervals for the response rate are not usually adjusted for the design's adaptiveness. Proper statistical inference procedures should be used.

External Validation of a Case-Mix Adjustment Model for the Standardized Reporting of 30-Day Stroke Mortality Rates in China

PubMed Central

Yu, Ping; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Yongjun; Wang, Xianwei; Liu, Liping; Ji, Ruijun; Meng, Xia; Jing, Jing; Tong, Xu; Guo, Li; Wang, Yilong

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose A case-mix adjustment model has been developed and externally validated, demonstrating promise. However, the model has not been thoroughly tested among populations in China. In our study, we evaluated the performance of the model in Chinese patients with acute stroke. Methods The case-mix adjustment model A includes items on age, presence of atrial fibrillation on admission, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity Scale (NIHSS) score on admission, and stroke type. Model B is similar to Model A but includes only the consciousness component of the NIHSS score. Both model A and B were evaluated to predict 30-day mortality rates in 13,948 patients with acute stroke from the China National Stroke Registry. The discrimination of the models was quantified by c-statistic. Calibration was assessed using Pearson’s correlation coefficient. Results The c-statistic of model A in our external validation cohort was 0.80 (95% confidence interval, 0.79–0.82), and the c-statistic of model B was 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.81–0.84). Excellent calibration was reported in the two models with Pearson’s correlation coefficient (0.892 for model A, p<0.001; 0.927 for model B, p = 0.008). Conclusions The case-mix adjustment model could be used to effectively predict 30-day mortality rates in Chinese patients with acute stroke. PMID:27846282

Rapid COJEC Induction Therapy for High-risk Neuroblastoma Patients - Cochrane Review.

PubMed

Peinemann, F; van Dalen, E C; Berthold, F

2016-04-01

Neuroblastoma is a rare malignant disease and patients with high-risk neuroblastoma have a poor prognosis. Rapid COJEC induction chemotherapy means (almost) the same total doses given within a shorter time period. In theory, rapid COJEC could reduce the risk of drug resistance and it has been considered as a potential candidate for improving the outcome. The objective was to evaluate effects of rapid COJEC compared to standard induction chemotherapy in patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. We searched the databases CENTRAL, MEDLINE, and EMBASE from inception to 11 November 2014 and included randomized controlled trials. We identified one relevant randomized controlled trial with 130 participants receiving rapid COJEC and 132 participants receiving standard OPEC/COJEC induction chemotherapy. There was no statistically significant difference between the treatment groups in complete response (risk ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 1.38, P=0.94) and treatment-related mortality (risk ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 0.33 to 4.39, P=0.77). A statistically significant difference in favor of the standard treatment arm was identified for the following early toxicities: febrile neutropenia, septicemia, and renal toxicity. The differences in complete response and treatment-related mortality between treatment alternatives were not statistically significantly different. Based on the currently available evidence, we are uncertain about the effects of rapid COJEC induction chemotherapy in patients with high-risk neuroblastoma. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

[Pharmacokinetic interaction of pioglitazone hydrochloride and atorvastatin calcium in Beagle dogs].

PubMed

Chen, He-Li; Zhang, Wen-Ping; Yang, Fu-Ying; Wang, Xin-Yu; Yang, Wen-Cheng; Dang, Hong-Wan

2013-05-01

The object of this study is to investigate the pharmacokinetic interaction of pioglitazone hydrochloride and atorvastatin calcium in healthy adult Beagle dogs following single and multiple oral dose administration. A randomized, cross-over study was conducted with nine healthy adult Beagle dogs assigned to three groups. Each group was arranged to take atorvastatin calcium (A), pioglitazone hydrochloride (B), atorvastatin calcium and pioglitazone hydrochloride (C) orally in the first period, to take B, C, A in the second period, and to take C, A, B in the third period for 6 days respectively. The blood samples were collected at the first and the sixth day after the administration, plasma drug concentrations were determined by LC-MS/MS, a one-week wash-out period was needed between each period. The pharmacokinetic parameters of drug combination group and the drug alone group were calculated by statistical moment method, calculation of C(max) and AUC(0-t) was done by using 90% confidence interval method of the bioequivalence and bioavailability degree module DAS 3.2.1 software statistics. Compared with the separate administration, the main pharmacokinetic parameters (C(max) and AUC(0-t)) of joint use of pioglitazone hydrochloride and atorvastatin calcium within 90% confidence intervals for bioequivalence statistics were unqualified, the mean t(max) with standard deviation used paired Wilcoxon test resulted P > 0.05. There was no significant difference within t1/2, CL(int), MRT, V/F. Pioglitazone hydrochloride and atorvastatin calcium had pharmacokinetic interaction in healthy adult Beagle dogs.

A pre-admission program for underrepresented minority and disadvantaged students: application, acceptance, graduation rates and timeliness of graduating from medical school.

PubMed

Strayhorn, G

2000-04-01

To determine whether students' performances in a pre-admission program predicted whether participants would (1) apply to medical school, (2) get accepted, and (3) graduate. Using prospectively collected data from participants in the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill's Medical Education Development Program (MEDP) and data from the Association of American Colleges Student and Applicant Information Management System, the author identified 371 underrepresented minority (URM) students who were full-time participants and completed the program between 1984 and 1989, prior to their acceptance into medical school. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine whether MEDP performance significantly predicted (after statistically controlling for traditional predictors of these outcomes) the proportions of URM participants who applied to medical school and were accepted, the timeliness of graduating, and the proportion graduating. Odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated to determine the associations between the independent and outcome variables. In separate logistic regression models, MEDP performance predicted the study's outcomes after statistically controlling for traditional predictors with 95% confidence intervals. Pre-admission programs with similar outcomes can improve the diversity of the physician workforce and the access to health care for underrepresented minority and economically disadvantaged populations.

Postmyelography headache rates with Whitacre versus Quincke 22-gauge spinal needles.

PubMed

Peterman, S B

1996-09-01

To compare the postdural puncture headache (PDPH) rates after myelography with use of 22-gauge Whitacre (blunt tip) versus standard 22-gauge Quincke (bevel-tip) spinal needles. At myelography, 340 patients were randomly assigned to one of two groups in which either the Whitacre (167 patients) or the Quincke (173 patients) needle was used. Follow-up was at 48 hours and at 4 days after the procedure. Crude and adjusted Whitacre/PDPH odds ratios and risk ratios were calculated. The crude Whitacre needle PDPH risk was 9.6%, and the crude Quincke needle PDPH risk was 15.6%. The absolute risk difference was 6.0% with a 95% confidence interval of -0.98% and 13.04%. The adjusted Whitacre/PDPH odds ratio was 0.492 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.241 and 1.003. The Whitacre needle group had a statistically significantly lower PDPH severity grade (P = .0151), similar PDPH duration, and more technical difficulty with the needle. The Whitacre needle is associated with an equal or lower PDPH risk; the lack of statistical significance is most likely related to sample size. Further study is necessary to determine whether the decreased PDPH rate justifies the added difficulty associated with use of the Whitacre needle.

Generation and Validation of Spatial Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed Time-Series using Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veronesi, F.; Grassi, S.

2016-09-01

Wind resource assessment is a key aspect of wind farm planning since it allows to estimate the long term electricity production. Moreover, wind speed time-series at high resolution are helpful to estimate the temporal changes of the electricity generation and indispensable to design stand-alone systems, which are affected by the mismatch of supply and demand. In this work, we present a new generalized statistical methodology to generate the spatial distribution of wind speed time-series, using Switzerland as a case study. This research is based upon a machine learning model and demonstrates that statistical wind resource assessment can successfully be used for estimating wind speed time-series. In fact, this method is able to obtain reliable wind speed estimates and propagate all the sources of uncertainty (from the measurements to the mapping process) in an efficient way, i.e. minimizing computational time and load. This allows not only an accurate estimation, but the creation of precise confidence intervals to map the stochasticity of the wind resource for a particular site. The validation shows that machine learning can minimize the bias of the wind speed hourly estimates. Moreover, for each mapped location this method delivers not only the mean wind speed, but also its confidence interval, which are crucial data for planners.

Confidence intervals for single-case effect size measures based on randomization test inversion.

PubMed

Michiels, Bart; Heyvaert, Mieke; Meulders, Ann; Onghena, Patrick

2017-02-01

In the current paper, we present a method to construct nonparametric confidence intervals (CIs) for single-case effect size measures in the context of various single-case designs. We use the relationship between a two-sided statistical hypothesis test at significance level α and a 100 (1 - α) % two-sided CI to construct CIs for any effect size measure θ that contain all point null hypothesis θ values that cannot be rejected by the hypothesis test at significance level α. This method of hypothesis test inversion (HTI) can be employed using a randomization test as the statistical hypothesis test in order to construct a nonparametric CI for θ. We will refer to this procedure as randomization test inversion (RTI). We illustrate RTI in a situation in which θ is the unstandardized and the standardized difference in means between two treatments in a completely randomized single-case design. Additionally, we demonstrate how RTI can be extended to other types of single-case designs. Finally, we discuss a few challenges for RTI as well as possibilities when using the method with other effect size measures, such as rank-based nonoverlap indices. Supplementary to this paper, we provide easy-to-use R code, which allows the user to construct nonparametric CIs according to the proposed method.

The size of a pilot study for a clinical trial should be calculated in relation to considerations of precision and efficiency.

PubMed

Sim, Julius; Lewis, Martyn

2012-03-01

To investigate methods to determine the size of a pilot study to inform a power calculation for a randomized controlled trial (RCT) using an interval/ratio outcome measure. Calculations based on confidence intervals (CIs) for the sample standard deviation (SD). Based on CIs for the sample SD, methods are demonstrated whereby (1) the observed SD can be adjusted to secure the desired level of statistical power in the main study with a specified level of confidence; (2) the sample for the main study, if calculated using the observed SD, can be adjusted, again to obtain the desired level of statistical power in the main study; (3) the power of the main study can be calculated for the situation in which the SD in the pilot study proves to be an underestimate of the true SD; and (4) an "efficient" pilot size can be determined to minimize the combined size of the pilot and main RCT. Trialists should calculate the appropriate size of a pilot study, just as they should the size of the main RCT, taking into account the twin needs to demonstrate efficiency in terms of recruitment and to produce precise estimates of treatment effect. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing for clustering at many ranges inflates family-wise error rate (FWE).

PubMed

Loop, Matthew Shane; McClure, Leslie A

2015-01-15

Testing for clustering at multiple ranges within a single dataset is a common practice in spatial epidemiology. It is not documented whether this approach has an impact on the type 1 error rate. We estimated the family-wise error rate (FWE) for the difference in Ripley's K functions test, when testing at an increasing number of ranges at an alpha-level of 0.05. Case and control locations were generated from a Cox process on a square area the size of the continental US (≈3,000,000 mi2). Two thousand Monte Carlo replicates were used to estimate the FWE with 95% confidence intervals when testing for clustering at one range, as well as 10, 50, and 100 equidistant ranges. The estimated FWE and 95% confidence intervals when testing 10, 50, and 100 ranges were 0.22 (0.20 - 0.24), 0.34 (0.31 - 0.36), and 0.36 (0.34 - 0.38), respectively. Testing for clustering at multiple ranges within a single dataset inflated the FWE above the nominal level of 0.05. Investigators should construct simultaneous critical envelopes (available in spatstat package in R), or use a test statistic that integrates the test statistics from each range, as suggested by the creators of the difference in Ripley's K functions test.

Finding Mass Constraints Through Third Neutrino Mass Eigenstate Decay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangolli, Nakul; de Gouvêa, André; Kelly, Kevin

2018-01-01

In this paper we aim to constrain the decay parameter for the third neutrino mass utilizing already accepted constraints on the other mixing parameters from the Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata matrix (PMNS). The main purpose of this project is to determine the parameters that will allow the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) to observe a decay parameter with some statistical significance. Another goal is to determine the parameters that JUNO could detect in the case that the third neutrino mass is lighter than the first two neutrino species. We also replicate the results that were found in the JUNO Conceptual Design Report (CDR). By utilizing Χ2-squared analysis constraints have been put on the mixing angles, mass squared differences, and the third neutrino decay parameter. These statistical tests take into account background noise and normalization corrections and thus the finalized bounds are a good approximation for the true bounds that JUNO can detect. If the decay parameter is not included in our models, the 99% confidence interval lies within The bounds 0s to 2.80x10-12s. However, if we account for a decay parameter of 3x10-5 ev2, then 99% confidence interval lies within 8.73x10-12s to 8.73x10-11s.

Increasing the reliability of the fluid/crystallized difference score from the Kaufman Adolescent and Adult Intelligence Test with reliable component analysis.

PubMed

Caruso, J C

2001-06-01

The unreliability of difference scores is a well documented phenomenon in the social sciences and has led researchers and practitioners to interpret differences cautiously, if at all. In the case of the Kaufman Adult and Adolescent Intelligence Test (KAIT), the unreliability of the difference between the Fluid IQ and the Crystallized IQ is due to the high correlation between the two scales. The consequences of the lack of precision with which differences are identified are wide confidence intervals and unpowerful significance tests (i.e., large differences are required to be declared statistically significant). Reliable component analysis (RCA) was performed on the subtests of the KAIT in order to address these problems. RCA is a new data reduction technique that results in uncorrelated component scores with maximum proportions of reliable variance. Results indicate that the scores defined by RCA have discriminant and convergent validity (with respect to the equally weighted scores) and that differences between the scores, derived from a single testing session, were more reliable than differences derived from equal weighting for each age group (11-14 years, 15-34 years, 35-85+ years). This reliability advantage results in narrower confidence intervals around difference scores and smaller differences required for statistical significance.

Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stark, Philip B.

1992-01-01

The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

Association between gestational weight gain and perinatal outcomes in women with chronic hypertension.

PubMed

Yee, Lynn M; Caughey, Aaron B; Cheng, Yvonne W

2017-09-01

Gestational weight gain above or below the 2009 National Academy of Medicine guidelines has been associated with adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Although it has been well established that excess gestational weight gain is associated with the development of gestational hypertension and preeclampsia, the relationship between gestational weight gain and adverse perinatal outcomes among women with pregestational (chronic) hypertension is less clear. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between gestational weight gain above and below National Academy of Medicine guidelines and perinatal outcomes in a large, population-based cohort of women with chronic hypertension. This is a population-based retrospective cohort study of women with chronic hypertension who had term, singleton, vertex births in the United States from 2012 through 2014. Prepregnancy body mass index was calculated using self-reported prepregnancy weight and height. Women were categorized into 4 groups based on gestational weight gain and prepregnancy body mass index: (1) weight gain less than, (2) weight gain within, (3) weight gain 1-19 lb in excess of, and (4) weight gain ≥20 lb in excess of the National Academy of Medicine guidelines. The χ 2 tests and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used for statistical comparisons. Stratified analyses by body mass index category were additionally performed. In this large birth cohort, 101,259 women met criteria for inclusion. Compared to hypertensive women who had gestational weight gain within guidelines, hypertensive women with weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines were more likely to have eclampsia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.54-2.42) and cesarean delivery (adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.50-1.70). Excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines was also associated with increased odds of 5-minute Apgar <7 (adjusted odds ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.47), neonatal intensive care unit admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.23; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.33), and large-for-gestational-age neonates (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 2.27-2.56) as well as decreased odds of small-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.52; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.58). Weight gain 1-19 lb over guidelines was associated with similar fetal growth outcomes although with a smaller effect size. In contrast, weight gain less than National Academy of Medicine guidelines was not associated with adverse maternal outcomes but was associated with increased odds of small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.52) and decreased odds of large-for-gestational-age status (adjusted odds ratio, 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.81-0.92). Analysis of maternal and neonatal outcomes stratified by body mass index demonstrated similar findings. Women with chronic hypertension who gain less weight than National Academy of Medicine guidelines experience increased odds of small-for-gestational-age neonates, whereas excess weight gain ≥20 lb over National Academy of Medicine guidelines is associated with cesarean delivery, eclampsia, 5-minute Apgar <7, neonatal intensive care unit admission, and large-for-gestational-age neonates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cousins, R. D.

The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

CALCULATION OF NONLINEAR CONFIDENCE AND PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR GROUND-WATER FLOW MODELS.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cooley, Richard L.; Vecchia, Aldo V.

1987-01-01

A method is derived to efficiently compute nonlinear confidence and prediction intervals on any function of parameters derived as output from a mathematical model of a physical system. The method is applied to the problem of obtaining confidence and prediction intervals for manually-calibrated ground-water flow models. To obtain confidence and prediction intervals resulting from uncertainties in parameters, the calibrated model and information on extreme ranges and ordering of the model parameters within one or more independent groups are required. If random errors in the dependent variable are present in addition to uncertainties in parameters, then calculation of prediction intervals also requires information on the extreme range of error expected. A simple Monte Carlo method is used to compute the quantiles necessary to establish probability levels for the confidence and prediction intervals. Application of the method to a hypothetical example showed that inclusion of random errors in the dependent variable in addition to uncertainties in parameters can considerably widen the prediction intervals.

Comparing the Use of 3D Photogrammetry and Computed Tomography in Assessing the Severity of Single-Suture Nonsyndromic Craniosynostosis

PubMed Central

Ho, Olivia A.; Saber, Nikoo; Stephens, Derek; Clausen, April; Drake, James; Forrest, Christopher

2017-01-01

Purpose: Single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis is diagnosed using clinical assessment and computed tomography (CT). With increasing awareness of the associated risks of radiation exposure, the use of CT is particularly concerning in patients with craniosynostosis since they are exposed at a younger age and more frequently than the average child. Three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry is advantageous—it involves no radiation, is conveniently obtainable within clinic, and does not require general anaesthesia. This study aims to assess how 3D photogrammetry compares to CT in the assessment of craniosynostosis severity, to quantify surgical outcomes, and analyze the validity of 3D photogrammetry in craniosynostosis. Methods: Computed tomography images and 3D photographs of patients who underwent craniosynostosis surgery were assessed and aligned to best fit. The intervening area between the CT and 3D photogrammetry curves at the supraorbital bar (bandeau) level in axial view was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t test. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were determined and equivalence margins were applied. Results: In total, 41 pairs of CTs and 3D photographs were analyzed. The 95% confidence interval was 198.16 to 264.18 mm2 and the mean was 231.17 mm2. When comparisons were made in the same bandeau region omitting the temporalis muscle, the 95% confidence interval was 108.94 to 147.38 mm2, and the mean was 128.16 mm2. Although statistically significant difference between the modalities was found, they can be attributable to the dampening effect of soft tissue. Conclusion: Within certain error margins, 3D photogrammetry is comparable to CT in assessing the severity of single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis. However, a dampening effect can be attributable to the soft tissue. Three-dimensional photogrammetry may be more applicable for severe cases of craniosynostosis but not milder deformity. It may also be beneficial for assessing the overall appearance and aesthetics but not for determining underlying bony severity. PMID:29026817

Is motivation influenced by geomagnetic activity?

PubMed

Starbuck, S; Cornélissen, G; Halberg, F

2002-01-01

To eventually build a scientific bridge to religion by examining whether non-photic, non-thermic solar effects may influence (religious) motivation, invaluable yearly world wide data on activities from 1950 to 1999 by Jehovah's Witnesses on behalf of their church were analyzed chronobiologically. The time structure (chronome) of these archives, insofar as it is able to be evaluated in yearly means for up to half a century, was assessed. Least squares spectra in a frequency range from one cycle in 42 to one in 2.1 years of data on the average number of hours per month spent in work for the church, available from 103 different geographic locations, as well as grand totals also including other sites, revealed a large peak at one cycle in about 21 years. The non-linear least squares fit of a model consisting of a linear trend and a cosine curve with a trial period of 21.0 years, numerically approximating that of the Hale cycle, validated the about 21.0-year component in about 70% of the data series, with the non-overlap of zero by the 95% confidence interval of the amplitude estimate. Estimates of MESOR (midline-estimating statistic of rhythm, a rhythm (or chronome) adjusted mean), amplitude and period were further regressed with geomagnetic latitude. The period estimate did not depend on geomagnetic latitude. The about 21.0-year amplitude tends to be larger at low and middle than at higher latitudes and the resolution of the about 21.0-year cycle, gauged by the width of 95% confidence intervals for the period and amplitude, is higher (the 95% confidence intervals are statistically significantly smaller) at higher than at lower latitudes. Near-matches of periods in solar activity and human motivation hint that the former may influence the latter, while the dependence on latitude constitutes evidence that geomagnetic activity may affect certain brain areas involved in motivation, just as it was earlier found that it is associated with effects on the electrocardiogram and anthropometry.

Comparing the Use of 3D Photogrammetry and Computed Tomography in Assessing the Severity of Single-Suture Nonsyndromic Craniosynostosis.

PubMed

Ho, Olivia A; Saber, Nikoo; Stephens, Derek; Clausen, April; Drake, James; Forrest, Christopher; Phillips, John

2017-05-01

Single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis is diagnosed using clinical assessment and computed tomography (CT). With increasing awareness of the associated risks of radiation exposure, the use of CT is particularly concerning in patients with craniosynostosis since they are exposed at a younger age and more frequently than the average child. Three-dimensional (3D) photogrammetry is advantageous-it involves no radiation, is conveniently obtainable within clinic, and does not require general anaesthesia. This study aims to assess how 3D photogrammetry compares to CT in the assessment of craniosynostosis severity, to quantify surgical outcomes, and analyze the validity of 3D photogrammetry in craniosynostosis. Computed tomography images and 3D photographs of patients who underwent craniosynostosis surgery were assessed and aligned to best fit. The intervening area between the CT and 3D photogrammetry curves at the supraorbital bar (bandeau) level in axial view was calculated. Statistical analysis was performed using Student t test. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals were determined and equivalence margins were applied. In total, 41 pairs of CTs and 3D photographs were analyzed. The 95% confidence interval was 198.16 to 264.18 mm 2 and the mean was 231.17 mm 2 . When comparisons were made in the same bandeau region omitting the temporalis muscle, the 95% confidence interval was 108.94 to 147.38 mm 2 , and the mean was 128.16 mm 2 . Although statistically significant difference between the modalities was found, they can be attributable to the dampening effect of soft tissue. Within certain error margins, 3D photogrammetry is comparable to CT in assessing the severity of single-suture nonsyndromic craniosynostosis. However, a dampening effect can be attributable to the soft tissue. Three-dimensional photogrammetry may be more applicable for severe cases of craniosynostosis but not milder deformity. It may also be beneficial for assessing the overall appearance and aesthetics but not for determining underlying bony severity.

Morning and Evening Home Blood Pressure and Risks of Incident Stroke and Coronary Artery Disease in the Japanese General Practice Population: The Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure Study.

PubMed

Hoshide, Satoshi; Yano, Yuichiro; Haimoto, Hajime; Yamagiwa, Kayo; Uchiba, Kiyoshi; Nagasaka, Shoichiro; Matsui, Yoshio; Nakamura, Akira; Fukutomi, Motoki; Eguchi, Kazuo; Ishikawa, Joji; Kario, Kazuomi

2016-07-01

Our aim is to determine the optimal time schedule for home blood pressure (BP) monitoring that best predicts stroke and coronary artery disease in general practice. The Japan Morning Surge-Home Blood Pressure (J-HOP) study is a nationwide practice-based study that included 4310 Japanese with a history of or risk factors for cardiovascular disease, or both (mean age, 65 years; 79% used antihypertensive medication). Home BP measures were taken twice daily (morning and evening) over 14 days at baseline. During a mean follow-up of 4 years (16 929 person-years), 74 stroke and 77 coronary artery disease events occurred. Morning systolic BP (SBP) improved the discrimination of incident stroke (C statistics, 0.802; 95% confidence interval, 0.692-0.911) beyond traditional risk factors including office SBP (0.756; 0.646-0.866), whereas the changes were smaller with evening SBP (0.764; 0.653-0.874). The addition of evening SBP to the model (including traditional risk factors plus morning SBP) significantly reduced the discrimination of incident stroke (C statistics difference, -0.008; 95% confidence interval: -0.015 to -0.008; P=0.03). The category-free net reclassification improvement (0.3606; 95% confidence interval, 0.1317-0.5896), absolute integrated discrimination improvement (0.015; SE, 0.005), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (58.3%; all P<0.01) with the addition of morning SBP to the model (including traditional risk factors) were greater than those with evening SBP and with combined morning and evening SBP. Neither morning nor evening SBP improved coronary artery disease risk prediction. Morning home SBP itself should be evaluated to ensure best stroke prediction in clinical practice, at least in Japan. This should be confirmed in the different ethnic groups. URL: http://www.umin.ac.jp/ctr/. Unique identifier: UMIN000000894. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

King, Jason E.

A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

Comparison of untreated adolescent idiopathic scoliosis with normal controls: a review and statistical analysis of the literature.

PubMed

Rushton, Paul R P; Grevitt, Michael P

2013-04-20

Review and statistical analysis of studies evaluating health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in adolescents with untreated adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS) using Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) outcomes. To apply normative values and minimum clinical important differences for the SRS-22r to the literature. Identify whether the HRQOL of adolescents with untreated AIS differs from unaffected peers and whether any differences are clinically relevant. The effect of untreated AIS on adolescent HRQOL is uncertain. The lack of published normative values and minimum clinical important difference for the SRS-22r has so far hindered our interpretation of previous studies. The publication of this background data allows these studies to be re-examined. Using suitable inclusion criteria, a literature search identified studies examining HRQOL in untreated adolescents with AIS. Each cohort was analyzed individually. Statistically significant differences were identified by using 95% confidence intervals for the difference in SRS-22r domain mean scores between the cohorts with AIS and the published data for unaffected adolescents. If the lower bound of the confidence interval was greater than the minimum clinical important difference, the difference was considered clinically significant. Of the 21 included patient cohorts, 81% reported statistically worse pain than those unaffected. Yet in only 5% of cohorts was this difference clinically important. Of the 11 cohorts included examining patient self-image, 91% reported statistically worse scores than those unaffected. In 73% of cohorts this difference was clinically significant. Affected cohorts tended to score well in function/activity and mental health domains and differences from those unaffected rarely reached clinically significant values. Pain and self-image tend to be statistically lower among cohorts with AIS than those unaffected. The literature to date suggests that it is only self-image which consistently differs clinically. This should be considered when assessing the possible benefits of surgery.

Mining a clinical data warehouse to discover disease-finding associations using co-occurrence statistics.

PubMed

Cao, Hui; Markatou, Marianthi; Melton, Genevieve B; Chiang, Michael F; Hripcsak, George

2005-01-01

This paper applies co-occurrence statistics to discover disease-finding associations in a clinical data warehouse. We used two methods, chi2 statistics and the proportion confidence interval (PCI) method, to measure the dependence of pairs of diseases and findings, and then used heuristic cutoff values for association selection. An intrinsic evaluation showed that 94 percent of disease-finding associations obtained by chi2 statistics and 76.8 percent obtained by the PCI method were true associations. The selected associations were used to construct knowledge bases of disease-finding relations (KB-chi2, KB-PCI). An extrinsic evaluation showed that both KB-chi2 and KB-PCI could assist in eliminating clinically non-informative and redundant findings from problem lists generated by our automated problem list summarization system.

Pharmacokinetics and bioequivalence study of two brands of loxoprofen tablets in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Jhee, Ok Hwa; Lee, Min Ho; Shaw, Leslie M; Lee, Seo Eun; Park, Jin Hee; Kang, Ju Seop

2007-01-01

The aims of this study were to assess the pharmacokinetics and bioequivalence of two brands of loxoprofen (CAS 80832-23-6) 60 mg tablets in healthy male volunteers. The several pharmacokinetic parameters were evaluated after an oral administration after an overnight fast according to a single dose, two-sequence, and cross-over randomized design with a 1-week washout interval. Serial blood samples were collected throughout 10 h after administration of the reference and test drug. Plasma was analyzed by validated HPLC with UV detection. Several pharmacokinetic parameters, including AUC(infnity), AUC(t), C(max), T(max), T1/2, and Ke were determined from blood concentrations of both formulations. AUC(t), AUC(infinity) and C(max) were evaluated for bioequivalence after log-transformation of data using ANOVA with 90% confidence interval level. The parametric 90% confidence intervals of AUC(t), AUC(infinity), and C(max) were 90.13-106.34%, 91.43-106.94%, and 91.17-108.53%, respectively. All of the tested parameters were within the acceptable range of 80-125%. Based on these statistical considerations, it was concluded that the test drug was bioequivalent to the reference drug.

Race, Ethnicity, Language, Social Class, and Health Communication Inequalities: A Nationally-Representative Cross-Sectional Study

PubMed Central

Viswanath, Kasisomayajula; Ackerson, Leland K.

2011-01-01

Background While mass media communications can be an important source of health information, there are substantial social disparities in health knowledge that may be related to media use. The purpose of this study is to investigate how the use of cancer-related health communications is patterned by race, ethnicity, language, and social class. Methodology/Principal Findings In a nationally-representative cross-sectional telephone survey, 5,187 U.S. adults provided information about demographic characteristics, cancer information seeking, and attention to and trust in health information from television, radio, newspaper, magazines, and the Internet. Cancer information seeking was lowest among Spanish-speaking Hispanics (odds ratio: 0.42; 95% confidence interval: 0.28–0.63) compared to non-Hispanic whites. Spanish-speaking Hispanics were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 3.10; 95% confidence interval: 2.07–4.66) and trust (odds ratio: 2.61; 95% confidence interval: 1.53–4.47) health messages from the radio. Non-Hispanic blacks were more likely than non-Hispanic whites to pay attention to (odds ratio: 2.39; 95% confidence interval: 1.88–3.04) and trust (odds ratio: 2.16; 95% confidence interval: 1.61–2.90) health messages on television. Those who were college graduates tended to pay more attention to health information from newspapers (odds ratio: 1.98; 95% confidence interval: 1.42–2.75), magazines (odds ratio: 1.86; 95% confidence interval: 1.32–2.60), and the Internet (odds ratio: 4.74; 95% confidence interval: 2.70–8.31) and had less trust in cancer-related health information from television (odds ratio: 0.44; 95% confidence interval: 0.32–0.62) and radio (odds ratio: 0.54; 95% confidence interval: 0.34–0.86) compared to those who were not high school graduates. Conclusions/Significance Health media use is patterned by race, ethnicity, language and social class. Providing greater access to and enhancing the quality of health media by taking into account factors associated with social determinants may contribute to addressing social disparities in health. PMID:21267450

On correct evaluation techniques of brightness enhancement effect measurement data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kukačka, Leoš; Dupuis, Pascal; Motomura, Hideki; Rozkovec, Jiří; Kolář, Milan; Zissis, Georges; Jinno, Masafumi

2017-11-01

This paper aims to establish confidence intervals of the quantification of brightness enhancement effects resulting from the use of pulsing bright light. It is found that the methods used so far may yield significant bias in the published results, overestimating or underestimating the enhancement effect. The authors propose to use a linear algebra method called the total least squares. Upon an example dataset, it is shown that this method does not yield biased results. The statistical significance of the results is also computed. It is concluded over an observation set that the currently used linear algebra methods present many patterns of noise sensitivity. Changing algorithm details leads to inconsistent results. It is thus recommended to use the method with the lowest noise sensitivity. Moreover, it is shown that this method also permits one to obtain an estimate of the confidence interval. This paper neither aims to publish results about a particular experiment nor to draw any particular conclusion about existence or nonexistence of the brightness enhancement effect.

Estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests with random lot-to-lot variation: a simulation study.

PubMed

Magari, Robert T

2002-03-01

The effect of different lot-to-lot variability levels on the prediction of stability are studied based on two statistical models for estimating degradation in real time and accelerated stability tests. Lot-to-lot variability is considered as random in both models, and is attributed to two sources-variability at time zero, and variability of degradation rate. Real-time stability tests are modeled as a function of time while accelerated stability tests as a function of time and temperatures. Several data sets were simulated, and a maximum likelihood approach was used for estimation. The 95% confidence intervals for the degradation rate depend on the amount of lot-to-lot variability. When lot-to-lot degradation rate variability is relatively large (CV > or = 8%) the estimated confidence intervals do not represent the trend for individual lots. In such cases it is recommended to analyze each lot individually. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 91: 893-899, 2002

Preconceptional and prenatal supplementary folic acid and multivitamin intake and autism spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Virk, Jasveer; Liew, Zeyan; Olsen, Jørn; Nohr, Ellen A; Catov, Janet M; Ritz, Beate

2016-08-01

To evaluate whether early folic acid supplementation during pregnancy prevents diagnosis of autism spectrum disorders in offspring. Information on autism spectrum disorder diagnosis was obtained from the National Hospital Register and the Central Psychiatric Register. We estimated risk ratios for autism spectrum disorders for children whose mothers took folate or multivitamin supplements from 4 weeks prior from the last menstrual period through to 8 weeks after the last menstrual period (-4 to 8 weeks) by three 4-week periods. We did not find an association between early folate or multivitamin intake for autism spectrum disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.06, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.36; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.00, 95% confidence interval: 0.82-1.22), autistic disorder (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.18, 95% confidence interval: 0.76-1.84; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 1.22, 95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.69), Asperger's syndrome (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.46-1.53; multivitamin-adjusted risk ratio: 0.95, 95% confidence interval: 0.62-1.46), or pervasive developmental disorder-not otherwise specified (folic acid-adjusted risk ratio: 1.07, 95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.54; multivitamin: adjusted risk ratio: 0.87, 95% confidence interval: 0.65-1.17) compared with women reporting no supplement use in the same period. We did not find any evidence to corroborate previous reports of a reduced risk for autism spectrum disorders in offspring of women using folic acid supplements in early pregnancy. © The Author(s) 2015.

Postnatal depression in a community-based study of women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

PubMed

March, Wendy A; Whitrow, Melissa J; Davies, Michael J; Fernandez, Renae C; Moore, Vivienne M

2018-07-01

Women with polycystic ovary syndrome are susceptible to depression and anxiety and so may also be at risk for postnatal depression. This study investigates whether women with polycystic ovary syndrome have an elevated risk of postnatal depression. Cross-sectional data for parous women (n = 566) were available from a birth cohort. Polycystic ovary syndrome was diagnosed using the Rotterdam criteria. Details of reproductive history, pregnancy, birth, and postnatal depression were obtained through structured interview. Comparisons were made between women with and without polycystic ovary syndrome using logistic regression analysis, including the investigation of interactions. A positive but statistically non-significant association was found between polycystic ovary syndrome and postnatal depression (odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.9-2.9). Compared with their counterparts, women with polycystic ovary syndrome were substantially more likely: to have difficulty conceiving (odds ratio 5.2, 95% confidence interval 2.9-9.4), to have conceived with medical assistance (odds ratio 11.6, 95% confidence interval 5.5-24.4), and to have pregnancy complications (gestational diabetes, pregnancy-induced hypertension, or preeclampsia; odds ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval 1.1-3.5). Where women with polycystic ovary syndrome had a history of miscarriage or conceived with medical assistance, the combination interacted (p = 0.06 and p < 0.05, respectively), with over half of such women having postnatal depression. Although women with polycystic ovary syndrome may not have an excess risk of postnatal depression overall, those who had suffered a miscarriage or required medical assistance to conceive were at substantially elevated risk. Findings point to vulnerability inherent in polycystic ovary syndrome being amplified, either by stressful experiences on the pathway to pregnancy/childbirth or by specific fertility treatment regimens. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Management of Patients With Cardiac Arrest Complicating Myocardial Infarction in New York Before and After Public Reporting Policy Changes.

PubMed

Strom, Jordan B; McCabe, James M; Waldo, Stephen W; Pinto, Duane S; Kennedy, Kevin F; Feldman, Dmitriy N; Yeh, Robert W

2017-05-01

In 2010, New York State began excluding selected patients with cardiac arrest and coma from publicly reported mortality statistics after percutaneous coronary intervention. We evaluated the effects of this exclusion on rates of coronary angiography, revascularization, and mortality among patients with acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest. Using statewide hospitalization files, we identified discharges for acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest January 2003 to December 2013 in New York and several comparator states. A difference-in-differences approach was used to evaluate the likelihood of coronary angiography, revascularization, and in-hospital mortality before and after 2010. A total of 26 379 patients with acute myocardial infarction and cardiac arrest (5619 in New York) were included. Of these, 17 141 (65%) underwent coronary angiography, 12 183 (46.2%) underwent percutaneous coronary intervention, and 2832 (10.7%) underwent coronary artery bypass grafting. Before 2010, patients with cardiac arrest in New York were less likely to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention compared with referent states (adjusted relative risk, 0.79; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-0.85; P <0.001). This relationship was unchanged after the policy change (adjusted relative risk, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.89; interaction P =0.359). Adjusted risks of in-hospital mortality between New York and comparator states after 2010 were also similar (adjusted relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.02; P =0.152 for post- versus pre-2010 in New York; adjusted relative risk, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.92; P <0.001 for comparator states; interaction P =0.103). Exclusion of selected cardiac arrest cases from public reporting was not associated with changes in rates of percutaneous coronary intervention or in-hospital mortality in New York. Rates of revascularization in New York for cardiac arrest patients were lower throughout. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Age- and gender-specific time trend in risk of death of patients admitted with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Nieuwkamp, Dennis J; Vaartjes, Ilonca; Algra, Ale; Bots, Michiel L; Rinkel, Gabriël J E

2013-10-01

In a meta-analysis of population-based studies, case-fatality rates of subarachnoid hemorrhage have decreased worldwide by 17% between 1973 and 2002. However, age- and gender-specific decreases could not be determined. Because >10% of patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage die before reaching the hospital, this suggests that the prognosis for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients has improved even more. We assessed age- and gender-specific time trends of the risk of death for hospitalized subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. From the Dutch hospital discharge register (nationwide coverage), we identified 9403 patients admitted with subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2006. Changes in risk of death within this time frame and influence of age and gender were quantified with Poisson regression. The overall 30-day risk of death was 34.0% (95% confidence interval 33.1 ↔ 35.0%). After adjustment for age and gender, the annual decrease was 1.6% (95% confidence interval 0.5 ↔ 2.6%), which confers to a decrease of 13.4% (95% confidence interval 4.8 ↔ 21.2%) in the study period. The one-year risk of death decreased 2.0% per year (95% confidence interval 1.1 ↔ 2.9%). The decrease in risk of death was mainly found in the period 2003-2005, was not found for patients ≥ 65 years and was statistically significant for men, but not for women. The decrease in risk of death for patients admitted in the Netherlands with subarachnoid hemorrhage is overall considerable, but unevenly distributed over age and gender. Further research should focus on reasons for improved survival (improved diagnostics, improved treatment) and reasons why improvement has not occurred for women and for patients in older age categories. © 2013 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2013 World Stroke Organization.

Effect-site concentration of propofol target-controlled infusion at loss of consciousness in intractable epilepsy patients receiving long-term antiepileptic drug therapy.

PubMed

Choi, Eun Mi; Choi, Seung Ho; Lee, Min Huiy; Ha, Sang Hee; Min, Kyeong Tae

2011-07-01

Propofol dose requirement for loss of consciousness (LOC) in epilepsy patients would be probably affected by increasing factors [development of tolerance, up-regulated γ-aminobutyric acid (GABAA) receptors, or antiepileptic activity of propofol] and reducing factors [synergistic interaction between propofol and antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) or reduced neuronal mass in cortex] in complex and counteracting ways. Therefore, we determined the effect-site concentration (Ce) of propofol for LOC in intractable epilepsy patients receiving chronic AEDs in comparison with non-epilepsy patients. Nineteen epilepsy patients receiving long-term AEDs therapy and 20 non-epilepsy patients, with the age of 20 to 65 years, were enrolled. The epilepsy patients took their prescribed AEDs until the morning of the operation. Ce of propofol for LOC was determined with isotonic regression method with bootstrapping approach following Dixon's up-and-down allocation. The study was carried out before surgical stimulation. Isotonic regression showed that estimated Ce50 and Ce95 of propofol for LOC were lower in epilepsy group [2.88 μg/mL (83% confidence interval, 2.82-3.13 μg/mL) and [3.43 μg/mL (95% confidence interval, 3.28-3.47 μg/mL)] than in non-epilepsy group [3.38 μg/mL (83% confidence interval, 3.17-3.63 μg/mL) and 3.92 μg/mL (95% confidence interval, 3.80-3.97 μg/mL)] with bootstrapping approach. Mean Ce50 of propofol of epilepsy group was also lower than that of non-epilepsy group without statistical significance (2.8240.19 μg/mL vs 3.16±0.38 μg/mL, P=0.056). For anesthetic induction of epilepsy patients with propofol target-controlled infusion, Ce may need to be reduced by 10% to 15% compared with non-epilepsy patients.

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-bodymore » simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s, N r) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b. We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3-particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

Sample variance in weak lensing: How many simulations are required?

DOE PAGES

Petri, Andrea; May, Morgan; Haiman, Zoltan

2016-03-24

Constraining cosmology using weak gravitational lensing consists of comparing a measured feature vector of dimension N b with its simulated counterpart. An accurate estimate of the N b × N b feature covariance matrix C is essential to obtain accurate parameter confidence intervals. When C is measured from a set of simulations, an important question is how large this set should be. To answer this question, we construct different ensembles of N r realizations of the shear field, using a common randomization procedure that recycles the outputs from a smaller number N s ≤ N r of independent ray-tracing N-bodymore » simulations. We study parameter confidence intervals as a function of (N s, N r) in the range 1 ≤ N s ≤ 200 and 1 ≤ N r ≲ 105. Previous work [S. Dodelson and M. D. Schneider, Phys. Rev. D 88, 063537 (2013)] has shown that Gaussian noise in the feature vectors (from which the covariance is estimated) lead, at quadratic order, to an O(1/N r) degradation of the parameter confidence intervals. Using a variety of lensing features measured in our simulations, including shear-shear power spectra and peak counts, we show that cubic and quartic covariance fluctuations lead to additional O(1/N 2 r) error degradation that is not negligible when N r is only a factor of few larger than N b. We study the large N r limit, and find that a single, 240 Mpc/h sized 512 3-particle N-body simulation (N s = 1) can be repeatedly recycled to produce as many as N r = few × 10 4 shear maps whose power spectra and high-significance peak counts can be treated as statistically independent. Lastly, a small number of simulations (N s = 1 or 2) is sufficient to forecast parameter confidence intervals at percent accuracy.« less

Implementation of a pilot accountable care organization payment model and the use of discretionary and nondiscretionary cardiovascular care.

PubMed

Colla, Carrie H; Goodney, Philip P; Lewis, Valerie A; Nallamothu, Brahmajee K; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Meara, Ellen

2014-11-25

Accountable care organizations (ACOs) seek to reduce growth in healthcare spending while ensuring high-quality care. We hypothesized that accountable care organization implementation would selectively limit the use of discretionary cardiovascular care (defined as care occurring in the absence of indications such as myocardial infarction or stroke), while maintaining high-quality care, such as nondiscretionary cardiovascular imaging and procedures. The intervention group was composed of fee-for-service Medicare patients (n=819 779) from 10 groups participating in a Medicare pilot accountable care organization, the Physician Group Practice Demonstration (PGPD). Matched controls were patients (n=934 621) from nonparticipating groups in the same regions. We compared use of cardiovascular care before (2002-2004) and after (2005-2009) PGPD implementation, studying both discretionary and nondiscretionary carotid and coronary imaging and procedures. Our main outcome measure was the difference in the proportion of patients treated with imaging and procedures among patients of PGPD practices compared with patients in control practices, before and after PGPD implementation (difference-in-difference). For discretionary imaging, the difference-in-difference between PGPD practices and controls was not statistically significant for discretionary carotid imaging (0.17%; 95% confidence interval, -0.51% to 0.85%; P=0.595) or discretionary coronary imaging (-0.19%; 95% confidence interval, -0.73% to 0.35%; P=0.468). Similarly, the difference-in-difference was also minimal for discretionary carotid revascularization (0.003%; 95% confidence interval, -0.008% to 0.002%; P=0.705) and coronary revascularization (-0.02%; 95% confidence interval, -0.11% to 0.07%; P=0.06). The difference-in-difference associated with PGPD implementation was also essentially 0 for nondiscretionary cardiovascular imaging or procedures. Implementation of a pilot accountable care organization did not limit the use of discretionary or nondiscretionary cardiovascular care in 10 large health systems. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Predictors of In-Hospital Death After Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Analysis of a Nationwide Database (Swiss SOS [Swiss Study on Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage]).

PubMed

Stienen, Martin Nikolaus; Germans, Menno; Burkhardt, Jan-Karl; Neidert, Marian C; Fung, Christian; Bervini, David; Zumofen, Daniel; Röthlisberger, Michel; Marbacher, Serge; Maduri, Rodolfo; Robert, Thomas; Seule, Martin A; Bijlenga, Philippe; Schaller, Karl; Fandino, Javier; Smoll, Nicolas R; Maldaner, Nicolai; Finkenstädt, Sina; Esposito, Giuseppe; Schatlo, Bawarjan; Keller, Emanuela; Bozinov, Oliver; Regli, Luca

2018-02-01

To identify predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage and to estimate their impact. Retrospective analysis of prospective data from a nationwide multicenter registry on all aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage cases admitted to a tertiary neurosurgical department in Switzerland (Swiss SOS [Swiss Study on Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage]; 2009-2015). Both clinical and radiological independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified, and their effect size was determined by calculating adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using multivariate logistic regression. Survival was displayed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Data of n=1866 aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage patients in the Swiss SOS database were available. In-hospital mortality was 20% (n=373). In n=197 patients (10.6%), active treatment was discontinued after hospital admission (no aneurysm occlusion attempted), and this cohort was excluded from analysis of the main statistical model. In the remaining n=1669 patients, the rate of in-hospital mortality was 13.9% (n=232). Strong independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were rebleeding (aOR, 7.69; 95% confidence interval, 3.00-19.71; P <0.001), cerebral infarction attributable to delayed cerebral ischemia (aOR, 3.66; 95% confidence interval, 1.94-6.89; P <0.001), intraventricular hemorrhage (aOR, 2.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.38-5.09; P =0.003), and new infarction post-treatment (aOR, 2.57; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-4.62; P =0.002). Several-and among them modifiable-factors seem to be associated with in-hospital mortality after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Our data suggest that strategies aiming to reduce the risk of rebleeding are most promising in patients where active treatment is initially pursued. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT03245866. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Validity of self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection.

PubMed

Frisse, Ann C; Marrazzo, Jeanne M; Tutlam, Nhial T; Schreiber, Courtney A; Teal, Stephanie B; Turok, David K; Peipert, Jeffrey F

2017-04-01

Chlamydia trachomatis infection is common and largely asymptomatic in women. If untreated, it can lead to sequelae such as pelvic inflammatory disease and infertility. It is unknown whether a patient's self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection is a valid marker of past infection. Our objective was to evaluate the validity of women's self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection compared with Chlamydia trachomatis serology, a marker for previous infection. We analyzed data from the Fertility After Contraception Termination study. We compared participants' survey responses with the question, "Have you ever been told by a health care provider that you had Chlamydia?" to serological test results indicating the presence or absence of antibodies to Chlamydia trachomatis as assessed by a microimmunofluorescence assay. Prevalence of past infection, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios were calculated. The Cohen's kappa statistic was computed to assess agreement between self-report and serology. Among 409 participants, 108 (26%) reported having a history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection, whereas 146 (36%) had positive serological test results. Relative to positive microimmunofluorescence assay, the sensitivity and specificity of self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection were 52.1% (95% confidence interval, 43.6-60.4%) and 87.8% (95% confidence interval, 83.3-91.5%), respectively. The positive predictive value of the self-report was 70.4% (95% confidence interval, 60.8-78.8%), and the negative predictive value was 76.7% (95% confidence interval, 71.6-81.4%). The likelihood ratio was found to be 4.28. Agreement between self-report and serology was found to be moderate (kappa = 0.42, P < .001). Self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis infection commonly yields false-negative and false-positive results. When definitive status of past Chlamydia trachomatis infection is needed, serology should be obtained. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Acute Kidney Injury and Mortality After Intensive Blood Pressure Control in Patients With Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Burgess, L Goodwin; Goyal, Nitin; Jones, G Morgan; Khorchid, Yasser; Kerro, Ali; Chapple, Kristina; Tsivgoulis, Georgios; Alexandrov, Andrei V; Chang, Jason J

2018-04-13

We sought to assess the risk of acute kidney injury (AKI) and mortality associated with intensive systolic blood pressure reduction in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. Patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage had spontaneous cause and symptom onset within 24 hours. We excluded patients with structural causes, coagulopathy, thrombocytopenia, and preexisting end-stage renal disease. We defined AKI using the Acute Kidney Injury Network criteria. Chronic kidney disease status was included in risk stratification and was defined by Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative staging. Maximum systolic blood pressure reduction was defined over a 12-hour period and dichotomized using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Descriptive statistics were done using independent sample t tests, χ 2 tests, and Mann-Whitney U tests, whereas multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate for predictors for AKI and mortality. A total of 448 patients with intracerebral hemorrhage met inclusion criteria. Maximum systolic blood pressure reduction was dichotomized to 90 mm Hg and found to increase the risk of AKI in patients with normal renal function (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-3.62; P =0.010) and chronic kidney disease (odds ratio, 3.91; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-12.15; P =0.019). The risk of AKI was not significantly different in normal renal function versus chronic kidney disease groups when adjusted for demographics, presentation characteristics, and medications associated with AKI. AKI positively predicted mortality for patients with normal renal function (odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-5.22; P =0.026) but not for patients with chronic kidney disease (odds ratio, 3.13; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-15.01; P =0.154). These results indicate that intensive systolic blood pressure reduction with a threshold >90 mm Hg in patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage may be an independent predictor for AKI. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Analysis of data collected from right and left limbs: Accounting for dependence and improving statistical efficiency in musculoskeletal research.

PubMed

Stewart, Sarah; Pearson, Janet; Rome, Keith; Dalbeth, Nicola; Vandal, Alain C

2018-01-01

Statistical techniques currently used in musculoskeletal research often inefficiently account for paired-limb measurements or the relationship between measurements taken from multiple regions within limbs. This study compared three commonly used analysis methods with a mixed-models approach that appropriately accounted for the association between limbs, regions, and trials and that utilised all information available from repeated trials. Four analysis were applied to an existing data set containing plantar pressure data, which was collected for seven masked regions on right and left feet, over three trials, across three participant groups. Methods 1-3 averaged data over trials and analysed right foot data (Method 1), data from a randomly selected foot (Method 2), and averaged right and left foot data (Method 3). Method 4 used all available data in a mixed-effects regression that accounted for repeated measures taken for each foot, foot region and trial. Confidence interval widths for the mean differences between groups for each foot region were used as a criterion for comparison of statistical efficiency. Mean differences in pressure between groups were similar across methods for each foot region, while the confidence interval widths were consistently smaller for Method 4. Method 4 also revealed significant between-group differences that were not detected by Methods 1-3. A mixed effects linear model approach generates improved efficiency and power by producing more precise estimates compared to alternative approaches that discard information in the process of accounting for paired-limb measurements. This approach is recommended in generating more clinically sound and statistically efficient research outputs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of aspirin in pregnant women is dependent on increase in bleeding time.

PubMed

Dumont, A; Flahault, A; Beaufils, M; Verdy, E; Uzan, S

1999-01-01

Randomized trials with low-dose aspirin to prevent preeclampsia and intrauterine growth restriction have yielded conflicting results. In particular, 3 recent large trials were not conclusive. Study designs, however, varied greatly regarding selection of patients, dose of aspirin, and timing of treatment, all of which can be determinants of the results. Retrospectively analyzing the conditions associated with failure or success of aspirin may therefore help to draw up new hypotheses and prepare for more specific randomized trials. We studied a historical cohort of 187 pregnant women who were considered at high risk for preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, or both and were therefore treated with low-dose aspirin between 1989 and 1994. Various epidemiologic, clinical, and laboratory data were extracted from the files. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to search for independent parameters associated with the outcome of pregnancy. Age, parity, weight, height, and race had no influence on the outcome. The success rate was higher when treatment was given because of previous poor pregnancy outcomes than when it was given for other indications, and the patients with successful therapy had started aspirin earlier than had those with therapy failure (17.7 vs 20.0 weeks' gestation, P =.04). After multivariate analysis an increase in Ivy bleeding time after 10 days of treatment by >2 minutes was an independent predictor of a better outcome (odds ratio 0.22, 95% confidence interval 0.09-0.51). Borderline statistical significance was observed for aspirin initiation before 17 weeks' gestation (odds ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.18-1. 08). Abnormal uterine artery Doppler velocimetric scan at 20-24 weeks' gestation (odds ratio 3.31, 95% confidence interval 1.41-7.7), abnormal umbilical artery Doppler velocimetric scan after 26 weeks' gestation (odds ratio 37.6, 95% confidence interval 3.96-357), and use of antihypertensive therapy (odds ratio 6.06, 95% confidence interval 2.45-15) were independent predictors of poor outcome. Efficacy of aspirin seems optimal when bleeding time increases >/=2 minutes with treatment, indicating a more powerful antiplatelet effect. This suggests that the dose of aspirin should be adjusted according to a biologic marker of the antiplatelet effect. A prospective trial is warranted to test this hypothesis.

Agreement and accuracy using the FIGO, ACOG and NICE cardiotocography interpretation guidelines.

PubMed

Santo, Susana; Ayres-de-Campos, Diogo; Costa-Santos, Cristina; Schnettler, William; Ugwumadu, Austin; Da Graça, Luís M

2017-02-01

One of the limitations reported with cardiotocography is the modest interobserver agreement observed in tracing interpretation. This study compared agreement, reliability and accuracy of cardiotocography interpretation using the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics, American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines. A total of 151 tracings were evaluated by 27 clinicians from three centers where International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics, American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines were routinely used. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using the proportions of agreement and reliability with the κ statistic. The accuracy of tracings classified as "pathological/category III" was assessed for prediction of newborn acidemia. For all measures, 95% confidence interval were calculated. Cardiotocography classifications were more distributed with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (9, 52, 39%) and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (30, 33, 37%) than with American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (13, 81, 6%). The category with the highest agreement was American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology category II (proportions of agreement = 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.70-76), and the ones with the lowest agreement were American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology categories I and III. Reliability was significantly higher with International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (κ = 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.31-0.43), and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (κ = 0.33, 95% confidence interval 0.28-0.39) than with American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (κ = 0.15, 95% confidence interval 0.10-0.21); however, all represent only slight/fair reliability. International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence showed a trend towards higher sensitivities in prediction of newborn acidemia (89 and 97%, respectively) than American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology (32%), but the latter achieved a significantly higher specificity (95%). With American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology guidelines there is high agreement in category II, low reliability, low sensitivity and high specificity in prediction of acidemia. With International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics and National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines there is higher reliability, a trend towards higher sensitivity, and lower specificity in prediction of acidemia. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) Therapy in Parkinson Disease: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Wagle Shukla, Aparna; Shuster, Jonathan J; Chung, Jae Woo; Vaillancourt, David E; Patten, Carolynn; Ostrem, Jill; Okun, Michael S

2016-04-01

Several studies have reported repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) therapy as an effective treatment for the control of motor symptoms in Parkinson disease. The objective of the study is to quantify the overall efficacy of this treatment. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We reviewed the literature on clinical rTMS trials in Parkinson disease since the technique was introduced in 1980. We used the following databases: MEDLINE, Web of Science, Cochrane, and CINAHL. Patients with Parkinson disease who were participating in prospective clinical trials that included an active arm and a control arm and change in motor scores on Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale as the primary outcome. We pooled data from 21 studies that met these criteria. We then analyzed separately the effects of low- and high-frequency rTMS on clinical motor improvements. The overall pooled mean difference between treatment and control groups in the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale motor score was significant (4.0 points, 95% confidence interval, 1.5, 6.7; P = .005). rTMS therapy was effective when low-frequency stimulation (≤ 1 Hz) was used with a pooled mean difference of 3.3 points (95% confidence interval 1.6, 5.0; P = .005). There was a trend for significance when high-frequency stimulation (≥ 5 Hz) studies were evaluated with a pooled mean difference of 3.9 points (95% confidence interval, -0.7, 8.5; P = .08). rTMS therapy demonstrated benefits at short-term follow-up (immediately after a treatment protocol) with a pooled mean difference of 3.4 points (95% confidence interval, 0.3, 6.6; P = .03) as well as at long-term follow-up (average follow-up 6 weeks) with mean difference of 4.1 points (95% confidence interval, -0.15, 8.4; P = .05). There were insufficient data to statistically analyze the effects of rTMS when we specifically examined bradykinesia, gait, and levodopa-induced dyskinesia using quantitative methods. rTMS therapy in patients with Parkinson disease results in mild-to-moderate motor improvements and has the potential to be used as an adjunct therapy for the treatment of Parkinson disease. Future large, sample studies should be designed to isolate the specific clinical features of Parkinson disease that respond well to rTMS therapy. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

2012-01-01

Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ordinary Least Squares Factor Loadings and Correlations in Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Luo, Shanhong

2010-01-01

This article is concerned with using the bootstrap to assign confidence intervals for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in ordinary least squares exploratory factor analysis. Coverage performances of "SE"-based intervals, percentile intervals, bias-corrected percentile intervals, bias-corrected accelerated percentile…

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable.

PubMed

Ellner, Stephen P; Holmes, Elizabeth E

2008-08-01

We reconcile the findings of Holmes et al. (Ecology Letters, 10, 2007, 1182) that 95% confidence intervals for quasi-extinction risk were narrow for many vertebrates of conservation concern, with previous theory predicting wide confidence intervals. We extend previous theory, concerning the precision of quasi-extinction estimates as a function of population dynamic parameters, prediction intervals and quasi-extinction thresholds, and provide an approximation that specifies the prediction interval and threshold combinations where quasi-extinction estimates are precise (vs. imprecise). This allows PVA practitioners to define the prediction interval and threshold regions of safety (low risk with high confidence), danger (high risk with high confidence), and uncertainty.

Opioid analgesia in mechanically ventilated children: results from the multicenter Measuring Opioid Tolerance Induced by Fentanyl study.

PubMed

Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Clark, Amy E; Willson, Douglas F; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Zimmerman, Jerry J; Harrison, Rick; Carcillo, Joseph A; Newth, Christopher J L; Bisping, Stephanie; Holubkov, Richard; Dean, J Michael; Nicholson, Carol E

2013-01-01

To examine the clinical factors associated with increased opioid dose among mechanically ventilated children in the pediatric intensive care unit. Prospective, observational study with 100% accrual of eligible patients. Seven pediatric intensive care units from tertiary-care children's hospitals in the Collaborative Pediatric Critical Care Research Network. Four hundred nineteen children treated with morphine or fentanyl infusions. None. Data on opioid use, concomitant therapy, demographic and explanatory variables were collected. Significant variability occurred in clinical practices, with up to 100-fold differences in baseline opioid doses, average daily or total doses, or peak infusion rates. Opioid exposure for 7 or 14 days required doubling of the daily opioid dose in 16% patients (95% confidence interval 12%-19%) and 20% patients (95% confidence interval 16%-24%), respectively. Among patients receiving opioids for longer than 3 days (n = 225), this occurred in 28% (95% confidence interval 22%-33%) and 35% (95% confidence interval 29%-41%) by 7 or 14 days, respectively. Doubling of the opioid dose was more likely to occur following opioid infusions for 7 days or longer (odds ratio 7.9, 95% confidence interval 4.3-14.3; p < 0.001) or co-therapy with midazolam (odds ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 2.4-12.9; p < 0.001), and it was less likely to occur if morphine was used as the primary opioid (vs. fentanyl) (odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.25-0.92; p = 0.03), for patients receiving higher initial doses (odds ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95-0.98; p < 0.001), or if patients had prior pediatric intensive care unit admissions (odds ratio 0.37, 95% confidence interval 0.15-0.89; p = 0.03). Mechanically ventilated children require increasing opioid doses, often associated with prolonged opioid exposure or the need for additional sedation. Efforts to reduce prolonged opioid exposure and clinical practice variation may prevent the complications of opioid therapy.

Quantitative Analysis of Repertoire Scale Immunoglobulin properties in Vaccine Induced B cell Responses

DTIC Science & Technology

Immunosequencing now readily generates 103105 sequences per sample ; however, statistical analysis of these repertoires is challenging because of the high genetic...diversity of BCRs and the elaborate clonal relationships among them. To date, most immunosequencing analyses have focused on reporting qualitative ...repertoire differences, (2) identifying how two repertoires differ, and (3) determining appropriate confidence intervals for assessing the size of the differences and their potential biological relevance.

Glaucoma correlates with increased risk of Parkinson's disease in the elderly: a national-based cohort study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Lai, Shih-Wei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liao, Kuan-Fu

2017-08-01

Very little is known about the association between glaucoma and Parkinson's disease in the elderly. The objective of this study was to determine whether glaucoma is associated with Parkinson's disease in older people in Taiwan. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program database from 2000 to 2010. We included 4330 subjects aged 65 years or older with newly diagnosed glaucoma as the glaucoma group, and 17,000 randomly selected subjects without a glaucoma diagnosis as the non-glaucoma group. Both groups were matched for sex, age, other comorbidities, and index year of glaucoma diagnosis. The incidence of Parkinson's disease at the end of 2011 was measured. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to measure the hazard ratio and 95% confidence intervals for Parkinson's disease associated with glaucoma. The overall incidence of Parkinson's disease was 1.28-fold higher in the glaucoma group than that in the non-glaucoma group (7.73 vs. 6.02 per 1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval 1.18, 1.40). After controlling for potential confounding factors, the adjusted hazard ratio of Parkinson's disease was 1.23 for the glaucoma group (95% confidence interval 1.05, 1.46), compared with the non-glaucoma group. Older people with glaucoma correlate with a small but statistically significant increase in the risk for Parkinson's disease. Whether glaucoma may be a non-motor feature of Parkinson's disease in older people requires further research to confirm.

Parents' labour market participation as a predictor of children's health and wellbeing: a comparative study in five Nordic countries.

PubMed

Reinhardt Pedersen, C; Madsen, M

2002-11-01

To study the association between parents' labour market participation and children's health and wellbeing. Parent reported data on health and wellbeing among their children from the survey Health and welfare among children and adolescents in the Nordic countries, 1996. A cross sectional study of random samples of children and their families in five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden). A total of 10 317 children aged 2-17 years. Children in families with no parents employed in the past six months had higher prevalence of recurrent psychosomatic symptoms (odds ratio 1.67, 95% confidence intervals 1.16 to 2.40), chronic illness (odds ratio 1.35, 95% confidence intervals 1.00 to 1.84), and low wellbeing (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence intervals 1.12 to 1.94). Social class, family type, parents' immigrant status, gender and age of the child, respondent, and country were included as confounders. When social class, family type and the parents' immigrant status (one or more born in the Nordic country versus both born elsewhere) were introduced into the model, the odds ratios were reduced but were still statistically significant. Health outcomes and parents' labour market participation were associated in all five countries. Children in families with no parents employed in the past six months had higher prevalence of ill health and low wellbeing in the five Nordic countries despite differences in employment rates and social benefits.

Tablet potency of Tianeptine in coated tablets by near infrared spectroscopy: model optimisation, calibration transfer and confidence intervals.

PubMed

Boiret, Mathieu; Meunier, Loïc; Ginot, Yves-Michel

2011-02-20

A near infrared (NIR) method was developed for determination of tablet potency of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) in a complex coated tablet matrix. The calibration set contained samples from laboratory and production scale batches. The reference values were obtained by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and partial least squares (PLS) regression was used to establish a model. The model was challenged by calculating tablet potency of two external test sets. Root mean square errors of prediction were respectively equal to 2.0% and 2.7%. To use this model with a second spectrometer from the production field, a calibration transfer method called piecewise direct standardisation (PDS) was used. After the transfer, the root mean square error of prediction of the first test set was 2.4% compared to 4.0% without transferring the spectra. A statistical technique using bootstrap of PLS residuals was used to estimate confidence intervals of tablet potency calculations. This method requires an optimised PLS model, selection of the bootstrap number and determination of the risk. In the case of a chemical analysis, the tablet potency value will be included within the confidence interval calculated by the bootstrap method. An easy to use graphical interface was developed to easily determine if the predictions, surrounded by minimum and maximum values, are within the specifications defined by the regulatory organisation. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Using Stochastic Approximation Techniques to Efficiently Construct Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

PubMed

Schweiger, Regev; Fisher, Eyal; Rahmani, Elior; Shenhav, Liat; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

2018-06-22

Estimation of heritability is an important task in genetics. The use of linear mixed models (LMMs) to determine narrow-sense single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-heritability and related quantities has received much recent attention, due of its ability to account for variants with small effect sizes. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. The common way to report the uncertainty in REML estimation uses standard errors (SEs), which rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals (CIs). In addition, for larger data sets (e.g., tens of thousands of individuals), the construction of SEs itself may require considerable time, as it requires expensive matrix inversions and multiplications. Here, we present FIESTA (Fast confidence IntErvals using STochastic Approximation), a method for constructing accurate CIs. FIESTA is based on parametric bootstrap sampling, and, therefore, avoids unjustified assumptions on the distribution of the heritability estimator. FIESTA uses stochastic approximation techniques, which accelerate the construction of CIs by several orders of magnitude, compared with previous approaches as well as to the analytical approximation used by SEs. FIESTA builds accurate CIs rapidly, for example, requiring only several seconds for data sets of tens of thousands of individuals, making FIESTA a very fast solution to the problem of building accurate CIs for heritability for all data set sizes.

School neighborhood disadvantage as a predictor of long-term sick leave among teachers: prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Virtanen, Marianna; Kivimäki, Mika; Pentti, Jaana; Oksanen, Tuula; Ahola, Kirsi; Linna, Anne; Kouvonen, Anne; Salo, Paula; Vahtera, Jussi

2010-04-01

This ongoing prospective study examined characteristics of school neighborhood and neighborhood of residence as predictors of sick leave among school teachers. School neighborhood income data for 226 lower-level comprehensive schools in 10 towns in Finland were derived from Statistics Finland and were linked to register-based data on 3,063 teachers with no long-term sick leave at study entry. Outcome was medically certified (>9 days) sick leave spells during a mean follow-up of 4.3 years from data collection in 2000-2001. A multilevel, cross-classified Poisson regression model, adjusted for age, type of teaching job, length and type of job contract, school size, baseline health status, and income level of the teacher's residential area, showed a rate ratio of 1.30 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.63) for sick leave among female teachers working in schools located in low-income neighborhoods compared with those working in high-income neighborhoods. A low income level of the teacher's residential area was also independently associated with sick leave among female teachers (rate ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.18, 1.91). Exposure to both low-income school neighborhoods and low-income residential neighborhoods was associated with the greatest risk of sick leave (rate ratio = 1.71, 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.30). This study indicates that working and living in a socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhood is associated with increased risk of sick leave among female teachers.

A new framework of statistical inferences based on the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in an incomplete contingency table.

PubMed

Tian, Guo-Liang; Li, Hui-Qiong

2017-08-01

Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies.

Estimating the duration of geologic intervals from a small number of age determinations: A challenge common to petrology and paleobiology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glazner, Allen F.; Sadler, Peter M.

2016-12-01

The duration of a geologic interval, such as the time over which a given volume of magma accumulated to form a pluton, or the lifespan of a large igneous province, is commonly determined from a relatively small number of geochronologic determinations (e.g., 4-10) within that interval. Such sample sets can underestimate the true length of the interval by a significant amount. For example, the average interval determined from a sample of size n = 5, drawn from a uniform random distribution, will underestimate the true interval by 50%. Even for n = 10, the average sample only captures ˜80% of the interval. If the underlying distribution is known then a correction factor can be determined from theory or Monte Carlo analysis; for a uniform random distribution, this factor is n+1n-1. Systematic undersampling of interval lengths can have a large effect on calculated magma fluxes in plutonic systems. The problem is analogous to determining the duration of an extinct species from its fossil occurrences. Confidence interval statistics developed for species origination and extinction times are applicable to the onset and cessation of magmatic events.

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

PubMed

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Statistical analysis of field data for aircraft warranties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lakey, Mary J.

Air Force and Navy maintenance data collection systems were researched to determine their scientific applicability to the warranty process. New and unique algorithms were developed to extract failure distributions which were then used to characterize how selected families of equipment typically fails. Families of similar equipment were identified in terms of function, technology and failure patterns. Statistical analyses and applications such as goodness-of-fit test, maximum likelihood estimation and derivation of confidence intervals for the probability density function parameters were applied to characterize the distributions and their failure patterns. Statistical and reliability theory, with relevance to equipment design and operational failures were also determining factors in characterizing the failure patterns of the equipment families. Inferences about the families with relevance to warranty needs were then made.

Assessing Mediational Models: Testing and Interval Estimation for Indirect Effects.

PubMed

Biesanz, Jeremy C; Falk, Carl F; Savalei, Victoria

2010-08-06

Theoretical models specifying indirect or mediated effects are common in the social sciences. An indirect effect exists when an independent variable's influence on the dependent variable is mediated through an intervening variable. Classic approaches to assessing such mediational hypotheses ( Baron & Kenny, 1986 ; Sobel, 1982 ) have in recent years been supplemented by computationally intensive methods such as bootstrapping, the distribution of the product methods, and hierarchical Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. These different approaches for assessing mediation are illustrated using data from Dunn, Biesanz, Human, and Finn (2007). However, little is known about how these methods perform relative to each other, particularly in more challenging situations, such as with data that are incomplete and/or nonnormal. This article presents an extensive Monte Carlo simulation evaluating a host of approaches for assessing mediation. We examine Type I error rates, power, and coverage. We study normal and nonnormal data as well as complete and incomplete data. In addition, we adapt a method, recently proposed in statistical literature, that does not rely on confidence intervals (CIs) to test the null hypothesis of no indirect effect. The results suggest that the new inferential method-the partial posterior p value-slightly outperforms existing ones in terms of maintaining Type I error rates while maximizing power, especially with incomplete data. Among confidence interval approaches, the bias-corrected accelerated (BC a ) bootstrapping approach often has inflated Type I error rates and inconsistent coverage and is not recommended; In contrast, the bootstrapped percentile confidence interval and the hierarchical Bayesian MCMC method perform best overall, maintaining Type I error rates, exhibiting reasonable power, and producing stable and accurate coverage rates.

Confidence Intervals for the Mean: To Bootstrap or Not to Bootstrap

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Calzada, Maria E.; Gardner, Holly

2011-01-01

The results of a simulation conducted by a research team involving undergraduate and high school students indicate that when data is symmetric the student's "t" confidence interval for a mean is superior to the studied non-parametric bootstrap confidence intervals. When data is skewed and for sample sizes n greater than or equal to 10,…

ScoreRel CI: An Excel Program for Computing Confidence Intervals for Commonly Used Score Reliability Coefficients

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnette, J. Jackson

2005-01-01

An Excel program developed to assist researchers in the determination and presentation of confidence intervals around commonly used score reliability coefficients is described. The software includes programs to determine confidence intervals for Cronbachs alpha, Pearson r-based coefficients such as those used in test-retest and alternate forms…

Confidence intervals from single observations in forest research

Treesearch

Harry T. Valentine; George M. Furnival; Timothy G. Gregoire

1991-01-01

A procedure for constructing confidence intervals and testing hypothese from a single trial or observation is reviewed. The procedure requires a prior, fixed estimate or guess of the outcome of an experiment or sampling. Two examples of applications are described: a confidence interval is constructed for the expected outcome of a systematic sampling of a forested tract...

Depressive symptoms in nonresident african american fathers and involvement with their sons.

PubMed

Davis, R Neal; Caldwell, Cleopatra Howard; Clark, Sarah J; Davis, Matthew M

2009-12-01

Our objective was to determine whether paternal depressive symptoms were associated with less father involvement among African American fathers not living with their children (ie, nonresident fathers). We analyzed survey data for 345 fathers enrolled in a program for nonresident African American fathers and their preteen sons. Father involvement included measures of contact, closeness, monitoring, communication, and conflict. We used bivariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine associations between father involvement and depressive symptoms. Thirty-six percent of fathers reported moderate depressive symptoms, and 11% reported severe depressive symptoms. In bivariate analyses, depressive symptoms were associated with less contact, less closeness, low monitoring, and increased conflict. In multivariate analyses controlling for basic demographic features, fathers with moderate depressive symptoms were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 1.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-2.8]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.3-3.5]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.7 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-5.2]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-3.6]). Fathers with severe depressive symptoms also were more likely to have less contact (adjusted odds ratio: 3.1 [95% confidence interval: 1.4-7.2]), less closeness (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.7]), low monitoring (adjusted odds ratio: 2.8 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-7.1]), and high conflict (adjusted odds ratio: 2.6 [95% confidence interval: 1.1-5.9]). Paternal depressive symptoms may be an important, but modifiable, barrier for nonresident African American fathers willing to be more involved with their children.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Simpson, Colin R; Steiner, Markus Fc; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-10-01

There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. A retrospective, cohort study. Scotland. 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population's risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73-86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56-84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136-169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56-82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120-175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39-74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18-53) was better than the reference population. Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Risk factors of childhood asthma in children attending Lyari General Hospital.

PubMed

Kamran, Amber; Hanif, Shahina; Murtaza, Ghulam

2015-06-01

To determine the factors associated with asthma in children. The case-control study was conducted in the paediatrics clinic of Lyari General Hospital, Karachi, from May to October 2010. Children 1-15 years of age attending the clinic represented the cases, while the control group had children who were closely related (sibling or cousin) to the cases but did not have the symptoms of disease at the time. Data was collected through a proforma and analysed using SPSS 10. Of the total 346 subjects, 173(50%) each comprised the two groups. According to univariable analysis the risk factors were presence of at least one smoker (odds ratio: 3.6; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-5.8), resident of kacha house (odds ratio: 16.2; 95% confidence interval: 3.8-69.5),living in room without windows (odds ratio: 9.3; 95% confidence interval: 2.1-40.9) and living in houses without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 1.6; 95% confidence interval: 1.2-2.4).Using multivariable modelling, family history of asthma (odds ratio: 5.9; 95% confidence interval: 3.1-11.6), presence of at least one smoker at home (odds ratio: 4.1; 95% confidence interval: 2.3-7.2), people living in a room without a window (odds ratio: 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.15-26.3) and people living in an area without adequate sunlight (odds ratio: 2.2; 95% confidence interval: 1.13-4.31) were found to be independent risk factors of asthma in children adjusting for age, gender and history of weaning. Family history of asthma, children living with at least one smoker at home, room without windows and people living in an area without sunlight were major risk factors of childhood asthma.

Standardized likelihood ratio test for comparing several log-normal means and confidence interval for the common mean.

PubMed

Krishnamoorthy, K; Oral, Evrim

2017-12-01

Standardized likelihood ratio test (SLRT) for testing the equality of means of several log-normal distributions is proposed. The properties of the SLRT and an available modified likelihood ratio test (MLRT) and a generalized variable (GV) test are evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation and compared. Evaluation studies indicate that the SLRT is accurate even for small samples, whereas the MLRT could be quite liberal for some parameter values, and the GV test is in general conservative and less powerful than the SLRT. Furthermore, a closed-form approximate confidence interval for the common mean of several log-normal distributions is developed using the method of variance estimate recovery, and compared with the generalized confidence interval with respect to coverage probabilities and precision. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed confidence interval is accurate and better than the generalized confidence interval in terms of coverage probabilities. The methods are illustrated using two examples.

Modeling longitudinal data, I: principles of multivariate analysis.

PubMed

Ravani, Pietro; Barrett, Brendan; Parfrey, Patrick

2009-01-01

Statistical models are used to study the relationship between exposure and disease while accounting for the potential role of other factors' impact on outcomes. This adjustment is useful to obtain unbiased estimates of true effects or to predict future outcomes. Statistical models include a systematic component and an error component. The systematic component explains the variability of the response variable as a function of the predictors and is summarized in the effect estimates (model coefficients). The error element of the model represents the variability in the data unexplained by the model and is used to build measures of precision around the point estimates (confidence intervals).

Grid Resolution Study over Operability Space for a Mach 1.7 Low Boom External Compression Inlet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Anderson, Bernhard H.

2014-01-01

This paper presents a statistical methodology whereby the probability limits associated with CFD grid resolution of inlet flow analysis can be determined which provide quantitative information on the distribution of that error over the specified operability range. The objectives of this investigation is to quantify the effects of both random (accuracy) and systemic (biasing) errors associated with grid resolution in the analysis of the Lockheed Martin Company (LMCO) N+2 Low Boom external compression supersonic inlet. The study covers the entire operability space as defined previously by the High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) High Speed Research (HSR) program goals. The probability limits in terms of a 95.0% confidence interval on the analysis data were evaluated for four ARP1420 inlet metrics, namely (1) total pressure recovery (PFAIP), (2) radial hub distortion (DPH/P), (3) ) radial tip distortion (DPT/P), and (4) ) circumferential distortion (DPC/P). In general, the resulting +/-0.95 delta Y interval was unacceptably large in comparison to the stated goals of the HSCT program. Therefore, the conclusion was reached that the "standard grid" size was insufficient for this type of analysis. However, in examining the statistical data, it was determined that the CFD analysis results at the outer fringes of the operability space were the determining factor in the measure of statistical uncertainty. Adequate grids are grids that are free of biasing (systemic) errors and exhibit low random (precision) errors in comparison to their operability goals. In order to be 100% certain that the operability goals have indeed been achieved for each of the inlet metrics, the Y+/-0.95 delta Y limit must fall inside the stated operability goals. For example, if the operability goal for DPC/P circumferential distortion is =0.06, then the forecast Y for DPC/P plus the 95% confidence interval on DPC/P, i.e. +/-0.95 delta Y, must all be less than or equal to 0.06.

Lactobacillus for preventing recurrent urinary tract infections in women: meta-analysis.

PubMed

Grin, Peter M; Kowalewska, Paulina M; Alhazzan, Waleed; Fox-Robichaud, Alison E

2013-02-01

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are the most common infections affecting women, and often recur. Lactobacillus probiotics could potentially replace low dose, long term antibiotics as a safer prophylactic for recurrent UTI (rUTI). This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to compile the results of existing randomized clinical trials (RCTs) to determine the efficacy of probiotic Lactobacillus species in preventing rUTI. MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from inception to July 2012 for RCTs using a Lactobacillus prophylactic against rUTI in premenopausal adult women. A random-effects model meta-analysis was performed using a pooled risk ratio, comparing incidence of rUTI in patients receiving Lactobacillus to control. Data from 294 patients across five studies were included. There was no statistically significant difference in the risk for rUTI in patients receiving Lactobacillus versus controls, as indicated by the pooled risk ratio of 0.85 (95% confidence interval of 0.58-1.25, p = 0.41). A sensitivity analysis was performed, excluding studies using ineffective strains and studies testing for safety. Data from 127 patients in two studies were included. A statistically significant decrease in rUTI was found in patients given Lactobacillus, denoted by the pooled risk ratio of 0.51 (95% confidence interval 0.26-0.99, p = 0.05) with no statistical heterogeneity (I2 = 0%). Probiotic strains of Lactobacillus are safe and effective in preventing rUTI in adult women. However, more RCTs are required before a definitive recommendation can be made since the patient population contributing data to this meta-analysis was small.

Evaluation of the 3M™ Molecular Detection Assay (MDA) 2 - Salmonella for the Detection of Salmonella spp. in Select Foods and Environmental Surfaces: Collaborative Study, First Action 2016.01.

PubMed

Bird, Patrick; Flannery, Jonathan; Crowley, Erin; Agin, James R; Goins, David; Monteroso, Lisa

2016-07-01

The 3M™ Molecular Detection Assay (MDA) 2 - Salmonella uses real-time isothermal technology for the rapid and accurate detection of Salmonella spp. from enriched select food, feed, and food-process environmental samples. The 3M MDA 2 - Salmonella was evaluated in a multilaboratory collaborative study using an unpaired study design. The 3M MDA 2 - Salmonella was compared to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Bacteriological Analytical Manual Chapter 5 reference method for the detection of Salmonella in creamy peanut butter, and to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service Microbiology Laboratory Guidebook Chapter 4.08 reference method "Isolation and Identification of Salmonella from Meat, Poultry, Pasteurized Egg and Catfish Products and Carcass and Environmental Samples" for the detection of Salmonella in raw ground beef (73% lean). Technicians from 16 laboratories located within the continental United States participated. Each matrix was evaluated at three levels of contamination: an uninoculated control level (0 CFU/test portion), a low inoculum level (0.2-2 CFU/test portion), and a high inoculum level (2-5 CFU/test portion). Statistical analysis was conducted according to the probability of detection (POD) statistical model. Results obtained for the low inoculum level test portions produced difference in collaborator POD values of 0.03 (95% confidence interval, -0.10 to 0.16) for raw ground beef and 0.06 (95% confidence interval, -0.06 to 0.18) for creamy peanut butter, indicating no statistically significant difference between the candidate and reference methods.

Do cultural factors predict mammography behaviour among Korean immigrants in the USA?

PubMed

Lee, Hanju; Kim, Jiyun; Han, Hae-Ra

2009-12-01

This paper is a report of a study of the correlates of mammogram use among Korean American women. Despite the increasing incidence of and mortality from breast cancer, Asian women in the United States of America report consistently low rates of mammography screening. A number of health beliefs and sociodemographic characteristics have been associated with mammogram participation among these women. However, studies systematically investigating cultural factors in relation to mammogram experience have been scarce. We measured screening-related health beliefs, modesty and use of Eastern medicine in 100 Korean American women in 2006. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to examine the unique contribution of the study variables, after accounting for sociodemographic characteristics. Only 51% reported past mammogram use. Korean American women who had previously had mammograms were statistically significantly older and had higher perceived benefit scores than those who had not. Perceived benefits (odds ratio = 6.3, 95% confidence interval = 2.12, 18.76) and breast cancer susceptibility (odds ratio = 3.18, 95% confidence interval = 1.06, 9.59) were statistically significant correlates of mammography experience, whereas cultural factors did not correlate. Post hoc analysis showed that for women with some or good English skills, cultural factors statistically significantly correlated with health beliefs and breast cancer knowledge (P < 0.05). Nurses should consider the inclusion in culturally tailored interventions of more targeted outreach and healthcare system navigation assistance for promoting mammography screening in Korean American women. Further research is needed to unravel the interplay between acculturation, cultural factors and health beliefs related to cancer screening behaviours of Korean American women.

Metaprop: a Stata command to perform meta-analysis of binomial data.

PubMed

Nyaga, Victoria N; Arbyn, Marc; Aerts, Marc

2014-01-01

Meta-analyses have become an essential tool in synthesizing evidence on clinical and epidemiological questions derived from a multitude of similar studies assessing the particular issue. Appropriate and accessible statistical software is needed to produce the summary statistic of interest. Metaprop is a statistical program implemented to perform meta-analyses of proportions in Stata. It builds further on the existing Stata procedure metan which is typically used to pool effects (risk ratios, odds ratios, differences of risks or means) but which is also used to pool proportions. Metaprop implements procedures which are specific to binomial data and allows computation of exact binomial and score test-based confidence intervals. It provides appropriate methods for dealing with proportions close to or at the margins where the normal approximation procedures often break down, by use of the binomial distribution to model the within-study variability or by allowing Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilize the variances. Metaprop was applied on two published meta-analyses: 1) prevalence of HPV-infection in women with a Pap smear showing ASC-US; 2) cure rate after treatment for cervical precancer using cold coagulation. The first meta-analysis showed a pooled HPV-prevalence of 43% (95% CI: 38%-48%). In the second meta-analysis, the pooled percentage of cured women was 94% (95% CI: 86%-97%). By using metaprop, no studies with 0% or 100% proportions were excluded from the meta-analysis. Furthermore, study specific and pooled confidence intervals always were within admissible values, contrary to the original publication, where metan was used.

The use of a physiologically-based extraction test to assess relationships between bioaccessible metals in urban soil and neurodevelopmental conditions in children.

PubMed

Hong, Jie; Wang, Yinding; McDermott, Suzanne; Cai, Bo; Aelion, C Marjorie; Lead, Jamie

2016-05-01

Intellectual disability (ID) and cerebral palsy (CP) are serious neurodevelopment conditions and low birth weight (LBW) is correlated with both ID and CP. The actual causes and mechanisms for each of these child outcomes are not well understood. In this study, the relationship between bioaccessible metal concentrations in urban soil and these child conditions were investigated. A physiologically based extraction test (PBET) mimicking gastric and intestinal processes was applied to measure the bio-accessibility of four metals (cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb)) in urban soil, and a Bayesian Kriging method was used to estimate metal concentrations in geocoded maternal residential sites. The results showed that bioaccessible metal concentrations of Cd, Ni, and Pb in the intestinal phase were statistically significantly associated with the child outcomes. Lead and nickel were associated with ID, lead and cadmium was associated with LBW, and cadmium was associated with CP. The total concentrations and stomach concentrations were not correlated to significant effects in any of the analyses. For lead, an estimated threshold value was found that was statistically significant in predicting low birth weight. The change point test was statistically significant (p value = 0.045) at an intestine threshold level of 9.2 mg/kg (95% confidence interval 8.9-9.4, p value = 0.0016), which corresponds to 130.6 mg/kg of total Pb concentration in the soil. This is a narrow confidence interval for an important relationship. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Handheld echocardiography during hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Cullen, Michael W; Geske, Jeffrey B; Anavekar, Nandan S; Askew, J Wells; Lewis, Bradley R; Oh, Jae K

2017-11-01

Handheld echocardiography (HHE) is concordant with standard transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) in a variety of settings but has not been thoroughly compared to traditional TTE in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Completed by experienced operators, HHE provides accurate diagnostic capabilities compared with standard TTE in AMI patients. This study prospectively enrolled patients admitted to the coronary care unit with AMI. Experienced sonographers performed HHE with a V-scan. All patients underwent clinical TTE. Each HHE was interpreted by 2 experts blinded to standard TTE. Agreement was assessed with κ statistics and concordance correlation coefficients. Analysis included 82 patients (mean age, 66 years; 74% male). On standard TTE, mean left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction was 46%. Correlation coefficients between HHE and TTE were 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.66 to 0.82) for LV ejection fraction and 0.69 (95% confidence interval: 0.58 to 0.77) for wall motion score index. The κ statistics ranged from 0.47 to 0.56 for LV enlargement, 0.55 to 0.79 for mitral regurgitation, and 0.44 to 0.57 for inferior vena cava dilatation. The κ statistics were highest for the anterior (0.81) and septal (0.71) apex and lowest for the mid inferolateral (0.36) and basal inferoseptal (0.36) walls. In patients with AMI, HHE and standard TTE demonstrate good correlation for LV function and wall motion. Agreement was less robust for structural abnormalities and specific wall segments. In experienced hands, HHE can provide a focused assessment of LV function in patients hospitalized with AMI; however, HHE should not substitute for comprehensive TTE. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Reliability of confidence intervals calculated by bootstrap and classical methods using the FIA 1-ha plot design

Treesearch

H. T. Schreuder; M. S. Williams

2000-01-01

In simulation sampling from forest populations using sample sizes of 20, 40, and 60 plots respectively, confidence intervals based on the bootstrap (accelerated, percentile, and t-distribution based) were calculated and compared with those based on the classical t confidence intervals for mapped populations and subdomains within those populations. A 68.1 ha mapped...

Confidence Intervals for Proportion Estimates in Complex Samples. Research Report. ETS RR-06-21

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oranje, Andreas

2006-01-01

Confidence intervals are an important tool to indicate uncertainty of estimates and to give an idea of probable values of an estimate if a different sample from the population was drawn or a different sample of measures was used. Standard symmetric confidence intervals for proportion estimates based on a normal approximation can yield bounds…

A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

2012-01-01

Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

Patient, surgeon, and hospital disparities associated with benign hysterectomy approach and perioperative complications.

PubMed

Mehta, Ambar; Xu, Tim; Hutfless, Susan; Makary, Martin A; Sinno, Abdulrahman K; Tanner, Edward J; Stone, Rebecca L; Wang, Karen; Fader, Amanda N

2017-05-01

Hysterectomy is among the most common major surgical procedures performed in women. Approximately 450,000 hysterectomy procedures are performed each year in the United States for benign indications. However, little is known regarding contemporary US hysterectomy trends for women with benign disease with respect to operative technique and perioperative complications, and the association between these 2 factors with patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics. We sought to describe contemporary hysterectomy trends and explore associations between patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics with surgical approach and perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by general gynecologists from July 2012 through September 2014 were analyzed in the all-payer Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission database. We excluded hysterectomies performed by gynecologic oncologists, reproductive endocrinologists, and female pelvic medicine and reconstructive surgeons. We included both open hysterectomies and those performed by minimally invasive surgery, which included vaginal hysterectomies. Perioperative complications were defined using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality patient safety indicators. Surgeon hysterectomy volume during the 2-year study period was analyzed (0-5 cases annually = very low, 6-10 = low, 11-20 = medium, and ≥21 = high). We utilized logistic regression and negative binomial regression to identify patient, surgeon, and hospital characteristics associated with minimally invasive surgery utilization and perioperative complications, respectively. A total of 5660 hospitalizations were identified during the study period. Most patients (61.5%) had an open hysterectomy; 38.5% underwent a minimally invasive surgery procedure (25.1% robotic, 46.6% laparoscopic, 28.3% vaginal). Most surgeons (68.2%) were very low- or low-volume surgeons. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of undergoing minimally invasive surgery included older patient age (reference 45-64 years; 20-44 years: adjusted odds ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-1.28), black race (reference white; adjusted odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.78), Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio, 0.62; 95% confidence interval, 0.48-0.80), smaller hospital (reference large; small: adjusted odds ratio, 0.26; 95% confidence interval, 0.15-0.45; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-0.96), medium hospital hysterectomy volume (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 100-200: adjusted odds ratio, 0.78; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.87), and medium vs high surgeon volume (reference high; medium: adjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.97). Complications occurred in 25.8% of open and 8.2% of minimally invasive hysterectomies (P < .0001). Minimally invasive hysterectomy (adjusted odds ratio, 0.22; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.27) and large hysterectomy volume hospitals (reference ≥200 hysterectomies; 1-100: adjusted odds ratio, 2.26; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-3.20; 101-200: adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.23-2.16) were associated with fewer complications, while patient payer, including Medicare (reference private; adjusted odds ratio, 1.86; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-2.61), Medicaid (adjusted odds ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.04), and self-pay status (adjusted odds ratio, 2.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-4.12), and very-low and low surgeon hysterectomy volume (reference ≥21 cases; 1-5 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.47; 6-10 cases: adjusted odds ratio, 1.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.23) were associated with perioperative complications. Use of minimally invasive hysterectomy for benign indications remains variable, with most patients undergoing open, more morbid procedures. Older and black patients and smaller hospitals are associated with open hysterectomy. Patient race and payer status, hysterectomy approach, and surgeon volume were associated with perioperative complications. Hysterectomies performed for benign indications by high-volume surgeons or by minimally invasive techniques may represent an opportunity to reduce preventable harm. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mining a clinical data warehouse to discover disease-finding associations using co-occurrence statistics

PubMed Central

Cao, Hui; Markatou, Marianthi; Melton, Genevieve B.; Chiang, Michael F.; Hripcsak, George

2005-01-01

This paper applies co-occurrence statistics to discover disease-finding associations in a clinical data warehouse. We used two methods, χ2 statistics and the proportion confidence interval (PCI) method, to measure the dependence of pairs of diseases and findings, and then used heuristic cutoff values for association selection. An intrinsic evaluation showed that 94 percent of disease-finding associations obtained by χ2 statistics and 76.8 percent obtained by the PCI method were true associations. The selected associations were used to construct knowledge bases of disease-finding relations (KB-χ2, KB-PCI). An extrinsic evaluation showed that both KB-χ2 and KB-PCI could assist in eliminating clinically non-informative and redundant findings from problem lists generated by our automated problem list summarization system. PMID:16779011

Evaluating the utility of hexapod species for calculating a confidence interval about a succession based postmortem interval estimate.

PubMed

Perez, Anne E; Haskell, Neal H; Wells, Jeffrey D

2014-08-01

Carrion insect succession patterns have long been used to estimate the postmortem interval (PMI) during a death investigation. However, no published carrion succession study included sufficient replication to calculate a confidence interval about a PMI estimate based on occurrence data. We exposed 53 pig carcasses (16±2.5 kg), near the likely minimum needed for such statistical analysis, at a site in north-central Indiana, USA, over three consecutive summer seasons. Insects and Collembola were sampled daily from each carcass for a total of 14 days, by this time each was skeletonized. The criteria for judging a life stage of a given species to be potentially useful for succession-based PMI estimation were (1) nonreoccurrence (observed during a single period of presence on a corpse), and (2) found in a sufficiently large proportion of carcasses to support a PMI confidence interval. For this data set that proportion threshold is 45/53. Of the 266 species collected and identified, none was nonreoccuring in that each showed at least a gap of one day on a single carcass. If the definition of nonreoccurrence is relaxed to include such a single one-day gap the larval forms of Necrophilaamericana, Fanniascalaris, Cochliomyia macellaria, Phormiaregina, and Luciliaillustris satisfied these two criteria. Adults of Creophilus maxillosus, Necrobiaruficollis, and Necrodessurinamensis were common and showed only a few, single-day gaps in occurrence. C.maxillosus, P.regina, and L.illustris displayed exceptional forensic utility in that they were observed on every carcass. Although these observations were made at a single site during one season of the year, the species we found to be useful have large geographic ranges. We suggest that future carrion insect succession research focus only on a limited set of species with high potential forensic utility so as to reduce sample effort per carcass and thereby enable increased experimental replication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do race-specific definitions of short long bones improve the detection of down syndrome on second-trimester genetic sonograms?

PubMed

Harper, Lorie M; Gray, Diana; Dicke, Jeffrey; Stamilio, David M; Macones, George A; Odibo, Anthony O

2010-02-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of race-specific definitions of short femur and humerus lengths improves Down syndrome detection. This was a retrospective cohort study over 16 years. For each self-reported maternal race (white, African American, Hispanic, and Asian), we evaluated the efficiency of Down syndrome detection using published race-specific formulas compared with a standard formula for short femur and humerus lengths (observed versus expected lengths < or =0.91 and < or =0.89, respectively). The sensitivity, specificity, and 95% confidence intervals for each parameter were compared. Screening performance was compared by areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Of 58,710 women, 209 (0.3%) had a diagnosis of a fetus with Down syndrome. Although the race-based formula increased sensitivity in each population, the increase was statistically significant only in the white population, whereas a decrease in specificity was statistically significant in all 4 populations, as denoted by nonoverlapping confidence intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the model using the race-specific definition of short femur length was 0.67 versus 0.65 compared with the standard definition, and for humerus length it was 0.70 versus 0.71. The use of race-based formulas for the determination of short femur and humerus lengths did not significantly improve the detection rates for Down syndrome.

Choline and betaine intake and the risk of colorectal cancer in men.

PubMed

Lee, Jung Eun; Giovannucci, Edward; Fuchs, Charles S; Willett, Walter C; Zeisel, Steven H; Cho, Eunyoung

2010-03-01

Dietary choline and betaine have been hypothesized to decrease the risk of cancer because of their role as methyl donors in the one-carbon metabolism. However, it remains unknown whether dietary intake of choline and betaine is associated with colorectal cancer risk. We prospectively examined the associations between dietary choline and betaine intake and risk of colorectal cancer in men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. We followed 47,302 men and identified a total of 987 incident colorectal cancer cases from 1986 to 2004. We assessed dietary and supplemental choline and betaine intake every 4 years using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate multivariate relative risks and 95% confidence intervals. All statistical tests were two-sided. We did not find any statistically significant associations between choline intake or betaine intake and risk of colorectal cancer. Comparing the top quintile with bottom quintile, multivariate relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.97 (0.79-1.20; P(trend) = 0.87) for choline intake and 0.94 (0.77-1.16; P(trend) = 0.79) for betaine intake. Similarly, we observed no associations between colorectal cancer risk and choline from free choline, glycerophosphocholine, phosphocholine, phosphatidylcholine, or sphingomyelin. Our data do not support the hypothesis that choline and betaine intake is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk.

The prognostic value of circulating tumor cells in patients with melanoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mocellin, Simone; Hoon, Dave; Ambrosi, Alessandro; Nitti, Donato; Rossi, Carlo Riccardo

2006-08-01

The detection of circulating tumor cells (CTC) in patients with melanoma represents an appealing prognostic tool, but no consensus exists on this topic. We aimed to comprehensively and quantitatively summarize the evidence for the use of CTC to predict patients' clinical outcome. Fifty-three studies enrolling 5,433 patients were reviewed. Correlation of CTC status with tumor-node-metastasis disease stage and patients' overall (OS) and progression-free (PFS) survival was assessed by means of association statistics and meta-analysis, respectively. CTC status correlated with both tumor-node-metastasis stage (stage I, 32%; stage II, 41.7%; stage III, 41.1%; stage IV, 47.4%; P(trend) < 0.0001) and survival (OS: hazard ratio, 2.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-3.45, P < 0.0001; PFS: hazard ratio, 2.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-3.38; P < 0.0001). However, statistical heterogeneity was significant for both OS and PFS, likely underscoring the wide variability in study design. Furthermore, CTC positivity rates in early stages were higher and in the metastatic setting were lower than expected, which indicates an unsatisfactory accuracy of currently available CTC detection assays. Our findings suggest that CTC might have a clinically valuable prognostic power in patients with melanoma. However, the heterogeneity of the studies thus far published warrants caution not to overestimate the favorable results of pooled data.

Influence of educational status and other variables on human immunodeficiency virus risk perception among military personnel: a large cohort finding.

PubMed

Essien, E James; Ogungbade, Gbadebo O; Ward, Doriel; Ekong, Ernest; Ross, Michael W; Meshack, Angela; Holmes, Laurens

2007-11-01

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk perception remains an effective determinant of HIV transmission. Although higher educational attainment has been associated with increased HIV risk perception, this predictor remains to be assessed among Nigerian military personnel (NMP). In a prospective cohort of 2,213 NMP, the effects of education and other factors on HIV risk perception were assessed at baseline by using the X2 statistic and unconditional logistic regression. There was an inverse correlation between higher educational attainment and HIV risk perception in the univariate model (prevalence odds ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.79). This association persisted after adjustment for relevant covariates in the multivariate model (prevalence odds ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.88). Similarly, there was a direct correlation between use of alcohol and marijuana and HIV risk perception (p < 0.05). In contrast, casual sex and gender were not statistically significantly associated with HIV risk perception (p > 0.05). This study indicates an inverse correlation between educational attainment and HIV risk perception, as well as a direct correlation between alcohol and marijuana use and HIV risk perception, among NMP. Therefore, HIV prevention interventions targeted at NMP need to include multiple factors that may affect risk perception regardless of the educational status of the participants.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shantaram, S. Pai; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parametes of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by using the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Validation of an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision Coding Algorithm for Hospital Encounters with Hypoglycemia.

PubMed

Hodge, Meryl C; Dixon, Stephanie; Garg, Amit X; Clemens, Kristin K

2017-06-01

To determine the positive predictive value and sensitivity of an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, 10th Revision, coding algorithm for hospital encounters concerning hypoglycemia. We carried out 2 retrospective studies in Ontario, Canada. We examined medical records from 2002 through 2014, in which older adults (mean age, 76) were assigned at least 1 code for hypoglycemia (E15, E160, E161, E162, E1063, E1163, E1363, E1463). The positive predictive value of the algorithm was calculated using a gold-standard definition (blood glucose value <4 mmol/L or physician diagnosis of hypoglycemia). To determine the algorithm's sensitivity, we used linked healthcare databases to identify older adults (mean age, 77) with laboratory plasma glucose values <4 mmol/L during a hospital encounter that took place between 2003 and 2011. We assessed how frequently a code for hypoglycemia was present. We also examined the algorithm's performance in differing clinical settings (e.g. inpatient vs. emergency department, by hypoglycemia severity). The positive predictive value of the algorithm was 94.0% (95% confidence interval 89.3% to 97.0%), and its sensitivity was 12.7% (95% confidence interval 11.9% to 13.5%). It performed better in the emergency department and in cases of more severe hypoglycemia (plasma glucose values <3.5 mmol/L compared with ≥3.5 mmol/L). Our hypoglycemia algorithm has a high positive predictive value but is limited in sensitivity. Although we can be confident that older adults who are assigned 1 of these codes truly had a hypoglycemia event, many episodes will not be captured by studies using administrative databases. Copyright © 2017 Diabetes Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Opioid Analgesics and Adverse Outcomes among Hemodialysis Patients.

PubMed

Ishida, Julie H; McCulloch, Charles E; Steinman, Michael A; Grimes, Barbara A; Johansen, Kirsten L

2018-05-07

Patients on hemodialysis frequently experience pain and may be particularly vulnerable to opioid-related complications. However, data evaluating the risks of opioid use in patients on hemodialysis are limited. Using the US Renal Data System, we conducted a cohort study evaluating the association between opioid use (modeled as a time-varying exposure and expressed in standardized oral morphine equivalents) and time to first emergency room visit or hospitalization for altered mental status, fall, and fracture among 140,899 Medicare-covered adults receiving hemodialysis in 2011. We evaluated risk according to average daily total opioid dose (>60 mg, ≤60 mg, and per 60-mg dose increment) and specific agents (per 60-mg dose increment). The median age was 61 years old, 52% were men, and 50% were white. Sixty-four percent received opioids, and 17% had an episode of altered mental status (15,658 events), fall (7646 events), or fracture (4151 events) in 2011. Opioid use was associated with risk for all outcomes in a dose-dependent manner: altered mental status (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.23 to 1.34; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.56 to 1.78; hazard ratio, 1.29 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.26 to 1.33), fall (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.21 to 1.36; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 1.61; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.05), and fracture (lower dose: hazard ratio, 1.44; 95% confidence interval, 1.33 to 1.56; higher dose: hazard ratio, 1.65; 95% confidence interval, 1.44 to 1.89; hazard ratio, 1.04 per 60 mg; 95% confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.05). All agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of altered mental status, and several agents were associated with a significantly higher hazard of fall and fracture. Opioids were associated with adverse outcomes in patients on hemodialysis, and this risk was present even at lower dosing and for agents that guidelines have recommended for use. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Pregnancy outcome in joint hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos syndrome.

PubMed

Sundelin, Heléne E K; Stephansson, Olof; Johansson, Kari; Ludvigsson, Jonas F

2017-01-01

An increased risk of preterm birth in women with joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome is suspected. In this nationwide cohort study from 1997 through 2011, women with either joint hypermobility syndrome or Ehlers-Danlos syndrome or both disorders were identified through the Swedish Patient Register, and linked to the Medical Birth Register. Thereby, 314 singleton births to women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome before delivery were identified. These births were compared with 1 247 864 singleton births to women without a diagnosis of joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome. We used logistic regression, adjusted for maternal age, smoking, parity, and year of birth, to calculate adjusted odds ratios for adverse pregnancy outcomes. Maternal joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome was not associated with any of our outcomes: preterm birth (adjusted odds ratio = 0.6, 95% confidence interval 0.3-1.2), preterm premature rupture of membranes (adjusted odds ratio = 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.3-2.2), cesarean section (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.2), stillbirth (adjusted odds ratio = 1.1, 95% confidence interval 0.2-7.9), low Apgar score (adjusted odds ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval 0.7-3.6), small for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.4-1.8) or large for gestational age (adjusted odds ratio = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 0.6-2.1). Examining only women with Ehlers-Danlos syndrome (n = 62), we found a higher risk of induction of labor (adjusted odds ratio = 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.4-4.6) and amniotomy (adjusted odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval 2.0-7.1). No excess risks for adverse pregnancy outcome were seen in joint hypermobility syndrome. Women with joint hypermobility syndrome/Ehlers-Danlos syndrome do not seem to be at increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. © 2016 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Comprehension of confidence intervals - development and piloting of patient information materials for people with multiple sclerosis: qualitative study and pilot randomised controlled trial.

PubMed

Rahn, Anne C; Backhus, Imke; Fuest, Franz; Riemann-Lorenz, Karin; Köpke, Sascha; van de Roemer, Adrianus; Mühlhauser, Ingrid; Heesen, Christoph

2016-09-20

Presentation of confidence intervals alongside information about treatment effects can support informed treatment choices in people with multiple sclerosis. We aimed to develop and pilot-test different written patient information materials explaining confidence intervals in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Further, a questionnaire on comprehension of confidence intervals was developed and piloted. We developed different patient information versions aiming to explain confidence intervals. We used an illustrative example to test three different approaches: (1) short version, (2) "average weight" version and (3) "worm prophylaxis" version. Interviews were conducted using think-aloud and teach-back approaches to test feasibility and analysed using qualitative content analysis. To assess comprehension of confidence intervals, a six-item multiple choice questionnaire was developed and tested in a pilot randomised controlled trial using the online survey software UNIPARK. Here, the average weight version (intervention group) was tested against a standard patient information version on confidence intervals (control group). People with multiple sclerosis were invited to take part using existing mailing-lists of people with multiple sclerosis in Germany and were randomised using the UNIPARK algorithm. Participants were blinded towards group allocation. Primary endpoint was comprehension of confidence intervals, assessed with the six-item multiple choice questionnaire with six points representing perfect knowledge. Feasibility of the patient information versions was tested with 16 people with multiple sclerosis. For the pilot randomised controlled trial, 64 people with multiple sclerosis were randomised (intervention group: n = 36; control group: n = 28). More questions were answered correctly in the intervention group compared to the control group (mean 4.8 vs 3.8, mean difference 1.1 (95 % CI 0.42-1.69), p = 0.002). The questionnaire's internal consistency was moderate (Cronbach's alpha = 0.56). The pilot-phase shows promising results concerning acceptability and feasibility. Pilot randomised controlled trial results indicate that the patient information is well understood and that knowledge gain on confidence intervals can be assessed with a set of six questions. German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00008561 . Registered 8th of June 2015.

Ethnic Differences in Incidence and Outcomes of Childhood Nephrotic Syndrome.

PubMed

Banh, Tonny H M; Hussain-Shamsy, Neesha; Patel, Viral; Vasilevska-Ristovska, Jovanka; Borges, Karlota; Sibbald, Cathryn; Lipszyc, Deborah; Brooke, Josefina; Geary, Denis; Langlois, Valerie; Reddon, Michele; Pearl, Rachel; Levin, Leo; Piekut, Monica; Licht, Christoph P B; Radhakrishnan, Seetha; Aitken-Menezes, Kimberly; Harvey, Elizabeth; Hebert, Diane; Piscione, Tino D; Parekh, Rulan S

2016-10-07

Ethnic differences in outcomes among children with nephrotic syndrome are unknown. We conducted a longitudinal study at a single regional pediatric center comparing ethnic differences in incidence from 2001 to 2011 census data and longitudinal outcomes, including relapse rates, time to first relapse, frequently relapsing disease, and use of cyclophosphamide. Among 711 children, 24% were European, 33% were South Asian, 10% were East/Southeast Asian, and 33% were of other origins. Over 10 years, the overall incidence increased from 1.99/100,000 to 4.71/100,000 among children ages 1-18 years old. In 2011, South Asians had a higher incidence rate ratio of 6.61 (95% confidence interval, 3.16 to 15.1) compared with Europeans. East/Southeast Asians had a similar incidence rate ratio (0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.13 to 2.94) to Europeans. We determined outcomes in 455 children from the three largest ethnic groups with steroid-sensitive disease over a median of 4 years. South Asian and East/Southeast Asian children had significantly lower odds of frequently relapsing disease at 12 months (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.39 to 0.77; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.42; 95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.51), fewer subsequent relapses (South Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.81; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted odds ratio; 0.47; 95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 0.91), lower risk of a first relapse (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.83; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.68), and lower use of cyclophosphamide (South Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 1.28; East/Southeast Asian: adjusted hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.41 to 0.71) compared with European children. Despite the higher incidence among South Asians, South and East/Southeast Asian children have significantly less complicated clinical outcomes compared with Europeans. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Confidence intervals for correlations when data are not normal.

PubMed

Bishara, Anthony J; Hittner, James B

2017-02-01

With nonnormal data, the typical confidence interval of the correlation (Fisher z') may be inaccurate. The literature has been unclear as to which of several alternative methods should be used instead, and how extreme a violation of normality is needed to justify an alternative. Through Monte Carlo simulation, 11 confidence interval methods were compared, including Fisher z', two Spearman rank-order methods, the Box-Cox transformation, rank-based inverse normal (RIN) transformation, and various bootstrap methods. Nonnormality often distorted the Fisher z' confidence interval-for example, leading to a 95 % confidence interval that had actual coverage as low as 68 %. Increasing the sample size sometimes worsened this problem. Inaccurate Fisher z' intervals could be predicted by a sample kurtosis of at least 2, an absolute sample skewness of at least 1, or significant violations of normality hypothesis tests. Only the Spearman rank-order and RIN transformation methods were universally robust to nonnormality. Among the bootstrap methods, an observed imposed bootstrap came closest to accurate coverage, though it often resulted in an overly long interval. The results suggest that sample nonnormality can justify avoidance of the Fisher z' interval in favor of a more robust alternative. R code for the relevant methods is provided in supplementary materials.

Confidence intervals and sample size calculations for the standardized mean difference effect size between two normal populations under heteroscedasticity.

PubMed

Shieh, G

2013-12-01

The use of effect sizes and associated confidence intervals in all empirical research has been strongly emphasized by journal publication guidelines. To help advance theory and practice in the social sciences, this article describes an improved procedure for constructing confidence intervals of the standardized mean difference effect size between two independent normal populations with unknown and possibly unequal variances. The presented approach has advantages over the existing formula in both theoretical justification and computational simplicity. In addition, simulation results show that the suggested one- and two-sided confidence intervals are more accurate in achieving the nominal coverage probability. The proposed estimation method provides a feasible alternative to the most commonly used measure of Cohen's d and the corresponding interval procedure when the assumption of homogeneous variances is not tenable. To further improve the potential applicability of the suggested methodology, the sample size procedures for precise interval estimation of the standardized mean difference are also delineated. The desired precision of a confidence interval is assessed with respect to the control of expected width and to the assurance probability of interval width within a designated value. Supplementary computer programs are developed to aid in the usefulness and implementation of the introduced techniques.

Estimation of parameters of dose volume models and their confidence limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Luijk, P.; Delvigne, T. C.; Schilstra, C.; Schippers, J. M.

2003-07-01

Predictions of the normal-tissue complication probability (NTCP) for the ranking of treatment plans are based on fits of dose-volume models to clinical and/or experimental data. In the literature several different fit methods are used. In this work frequently used methods and techniques to fit NTCP models to dose response data for establishing dose-volume effects, are discussed. The techniques are tested for their usability with dose-volume data and NTCP models. Different methods to estimate the confidence intervals of the model parameters are part of this study. From a critical-volume (CV) model with biologically realistic parameters a primary dataset was generated, serving as the reference for this study and describable by the NTCP model. The CV model was fitted to this dataset. From the resulting parameters and the CV model, 1000 secondary datasets were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. All secondary datasets were fitted to obtain 1000 parameter sets of the CV model. Thus the 'real' spread in fit results due to statistical spreading in the data is obtained and has been compared with estimates of the confidence intervals obtained by different methods applied to the primary dataset. The confidence limits of the parameters of one dataset were estimated using the methods, employing the covariance matrix, the jackknife method and directly from the likelihood landscape. These results were compared with the spread of the parameters, obtained from the secondary parameter sets. For the estimation of confidence intervals on NTCP predictions, three methods were tested. Firstly, propagation of errors using the covariance matrix was used. Secondly, the meaning of the width of a bundle of curves that resulted from parameters that were within the one standard deviation region in the likelihood space was investigated. Thirdly, many parameter sets and their likelihood were used to create a likelihood-weighted probability distribution of the NTCP. It is concluded that for the type of dose response data used here, only a full likelihood analysis will produce reliable results. The often-used approximations, such as the usage of the covariance matrix, produce inconsistent confidence limits on both the parameter sets and the resulting NTCP values.

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2003-2010 Passenger Cars and LTVs”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom

NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, bymore » 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the NHTSA data in slightly different ways to get a deeper understanding of the relationship between vehicle weight, footprint, and safety. The results of the NHTSA baseline results, and these alternative analyses, are summarized in Table ES.1; statistically significant estimates, based on the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, are shown in red in the tables. We found that NHTSA’s reasonable assumption that all vehicles will have ESC installed by 2017 in its baseline regression model slightly increases the estimated increase in risk from mass reduction in cars, but substantially decreases the estimated increase in risk from footprint reduction in all three vehicle types (Alternative 1 in Table ES.1; explained in more detail in Section 2.1 of this report). This is because NHTSA projects ESC to substantially reduce the number of fatalities in rollovers and crashes with stationary objects, and mass reduction appears to reduce risk, while footprint reduction appears to increase risk, in these types of crashes, particularly in cars and CUVs/minivans. A single regression model including all crash types results in slightly different estimates of the relationship between decreasing mass and risk, as shown in Alternative 2 in Table ES.1.« less

A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in community-based cluster randomization trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Braschel, Melissa C; Svec, Ivana; Darlington, Gerarda A; Donner, Allan

2016-04-01

Many investigators rely on previously published point estimates of the intraclass correlation coefficient rather than on their associated confidence intervals to determine the required size of a newly planned cluster randomized trial. Although confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient that can be applied to community-based trials have been developed for a continuous outcome variable, fewer methods exist for a binary outcome variable. The aim of this study is to evaluate confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient applied to binary outcomes in community intervention trials enrolling a small number of large clusters. Existing methods for confidence interval construction are examined and compared to a new ad hoc approach based on dividing clusters into a large number of smaller sub-clusters and subsequently applying existing methods to the resulting data. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the width and coverage of confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient based on Smith's large sample approximation of the standard error of the one-way analysis of variance estimator, an inverted modified Wald test for the Fleiss-Cuzick estimator, and intervals constructed using a bootstrap-t applied to a variance-stabilizing transformation of the intraclass correlation coefficient estimate. In addition, a new approach is applied in which clusters are randomly divided into a large number of smaller sub-clusters with the same methods applied to these data (with the exception of the bootstrap-t interval, which assumes large cluster sizes). These methods are also applied to a cluster randomized trial on adolescent tobacco use for illustration. When applied to a binary outcome variable in a small number of large clusters, existing confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient provide poor coverage. However, confidence intervals constructed using the new approach combined with Smith's method provide nominal or close to nominal coverage when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05), as is the case in most community intervention trials. This study concludes that when a binary outcome variable is measured in a small number of large clusters, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient may be constructed by dividing existing clusters into sub-clusters (e.g. groups of 5) and using Smith's method. The resulting confidence intervals provide nominal or close to nominal coverage across a wide range of parameters when the intraclass correlation coefficient is small (<0.05). Application of this method should provide investigators with a better understanding of the uncertainty associated with a point estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient used for determining the sample size needed for a newly designed community-based trial. © The Author(s) 2015.

Facebook and Twitter vaccine sentiment in response to measles outbreaks.

PubMed

Deiner, Michael S; Fathy, Cherie; Kim, Jessica; Niemeyer, Katherine; Ramirez, David; Ackley, Sarah F; Liu, Fengchen; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

2017-11-01

Social media posts regarding measles vaccination were classified as pro-vaccination, expressing vaccine hesitancy, uncertain, or irrelevant. Spearman correlations with Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-reported measles cases and differenced smoothed cumulative case counts over this period were reported (using time series bootstrap confidence intervals). A total of 58,078 Facebook posts and 82,993 tweets were identified from 4 January 2009 to 27 August 2016. Pro-vaccination posts were correlated with the US weekly reported cases (Facebook: Spearman correlation 0.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.09 to 0.34), Twitter: 0.21 (95% confidence interval: 0.06 to 0.34)). Vaccine-hesitant posts, however, were uncorrelated with measles cases in the United States (Facebook: 0.01 (95% confidence interval: -0.13 to 0.14), Twitter: 0.0011 (95% confidence interval: -0.12 to 0.12)). These findings may result from more consistent social media engagement by individuals expressing vaccine hesitancy, contrasted with media- or event-driven episodic interest on the part of individuals favoring current policy.

The Applicability of Confidence Intervals of Quantiles for the Generalized Logistic Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, H.; Heo, J.; Kim, T.; Jung, Y.

2007-12-01

The generalized logistic (GL) distribution has been widely used for frequency analysis. However, there is a little study related to the confidence intervals that indicate the prediction accuracy of distribution for the GL distribution. In this paper, the estimation of the confidence intervals of quantiles for the GL distribution is presented based on the method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (ML), and probability weighted moments (PWM) and the asymptotic variances of each quantile estimator are derived as functions of the sample sizes, return periods, and parameters. Monte Carlo simulation experiments are also performed to verify the applicability of the derived confidence intervals of quantile. As the results, the relative bias (RBIAS) and relative root mean square error (RRMSE) of the confidence intervals generally increase as return period increases and reverse as sample size increases. And PWM for estimating the confidence intervals performs better than the other methods in terms of RRMSE when the data is almost symmetric while ML shows the smallest RBIAS and RRMSE when the data is more skewed and sample size is moderately large. The GL model was applied to fit the distribution of annual maximum rainfall data. The results show that there are little differences in the estimated quantiles between ML and PWM while distinct differences in MOM.

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries: a systematic review.

PubMed

Singer, Marc A; Nelson, Richard L

2002-12-01

Primary repair of penetrating colon injuries is an appealing management option; however, uncertainty about its safety persists. This study was conducted to compare the morbidity and mortality of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries by use of a meta-analysis of randomized, prospective trials. We searched for prospective, randomized trials in MEDLINE (1966 to November 2001), the Cochrane Library, and EMBase using the terms colon, penetrating, injury, colostomy, prospective, and randomized. Studies were included if they were randomized, controlled trials that compared the outcomes of primary repair with fecal diversion in the management of penetrating colon injuries. Five studies were included. Reviewers performed data extraction independently. Outcomes evaluated from each trial included mortality, total complications, infectious complications, intra-abdominal infections, wound complications, penetrating abdominal trauma index, and length of stay. Peto odds ratios for combined effect were calculated with a 95 percent confidence interval for each outcome. Heterogeneity was also assessed for each outcome. The penetrating abdominal trauma index of included subjects did not differ significantly between studies. Mortality was not significantly different between groups (odds ratio, 1.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.51-5.66). However, total complications (odds ratio, 0.28; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.18-0.42), total infectious complications (odds ratio, 0.41; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.27-0.63), abdominal infections including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.38-0.94), abdominal infections excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.52; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.31-0.86), wound complications including dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.55; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.34-0.89), and wound complications excluding dehiscence (odds ratio, 0.43; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.25-0.76) all significantly favored primary repair. Meta-analysis of currently published randomized, controlled trials favors primary repair over fecal diversion for penetrating colon injuries.

Bullying and mental health and suicidal behaviour among 14- to 15-year-olds in a representative sample of Australian children.

PubMed

Ford, Rebecca; King, Tania; Priest, Naomi; Kavanagh, Anne

2017-09-01

To provide the first Australian population-based estimates of the association between bullying and adverse mental health outcomes and suicidality among Australian adolescents. Analysis of data from 3537 adolescents, aged 14-15 years from Wave 6 of the K-cohort of Longitudinal Study of Australian Children was conducted. We used Poisson and linear regression to estimate associations between bullying type (none, relational-verbal, physical, both types) and role (no role, victim, bully, victim and bully), and mental health (measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, symptoms of anxiety and depression) and suicidality. Adolescents involved in bullying had significantly increased Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire, depression and anxiety scores in all bullying roles and types. In terms of self-harm and suicidality, bully-victims had the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval [3.26, 6.83]), suicidal ideation (prevalence rate ratio 4.3, 95% confidence interval [2.83, 6.49]), suicidal plan (prevalence rate ratio 4.1, 95% confidence interval [2.54, 6.58]) and attempts (prevalence rate ratio 2.7, 95% confidence interval [1.39, 5.13]), followed by victims then bullies. The experience of both relational-verbal and physical bullying was associated with the highest risk of self-harm (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.15, 6.60]), suicidal ideation or plans (prevalence rate ratio 4.6, 95% confidence interval [3.05, 6.95]; and 4.8, 95% confidence interval [3.01, 7.64], respectively) or suicide attempts (prevalence rate ratio 3.5, 95% confidence interval [1.90, 6.30]). This study presents the first national, population-based estimates of the associations between bullying by peers and mental health outcomes in Australian adolescents. The markedly increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, self-harm and suicidal ideation and behaviours among adolescents who experienced bullying highlights the importance of addressing bullying in school settings.

Ethnic variations in morbidity and mortality from lower respiratory tract infections: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Steiner, Markus FC; Cezard, Genevieve; Bansal, Narinder; Fischbacher, Colin; Douglas, Anne; Bhopal, Raj; Sheikh, Aziz

2015-01-01

Objective There is evidence of substantial ethnic variations in asthma morbidity and the risk of hospitalisation, but the picture in relation to lower respiratory tract infections is unclear. We carried out an observational study to identify ethnic group differences for lower respiratory tract infections. Design A retrospective, cohort study. Setting Scotland. Participants 4.65 million people on whom information was available from the 2001 census, followed from May 2001 to April 2010. Main outcome measures Hospitalisations and deaths (any time following first hospitalisation) from lower respiratory tract infections, adjusted risk ratios and hazard ratios by ethnicity and sex were calculated. We multiplied ratios and confidence intervals by 100, so the reference Scottish White population’s risk ratio and hazard ratio was 100. Results Among men, adjusted risk ratios for lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation were lower in Other White British (80, 95% confidence interval 73–86) and Chinese (69, 95% confidence interval 56–84) populations and higher in Pakistani groups (152, 95% confidence interval 136–169). In women, results were mostly similar to those in men (e.g. Chinese 68, 95% confidence interval 56–82), although higher adjusted risk ratios were found among women of the Other South Asians group (145, 95% confidence interval 120–175). Survival (adjusted hazard ratio) following lower respiratory tract infection for Pakistani men (54, 95% confidence interval 39–74) and women (31, 95% confidence interval 18–53) was better than the reference population. Conclusions Substantial differences in the rates of lower respiratory tract infections amongst different ethnic groups in Scotland were found. Pakistani men and women had particularly high rates of lower respiratory tract infection hospitalisation. The reasons behind the high rates of lower respiratory tract infection in the Pakistani community are now required. PMID:26152675

Diagnostic accuracy of the Amsler grid and the preferential hyperacuity perimetry in the screening of patients with age-related macular degeneration: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Faes, L; Bodmer, N S; Bachmann, L M; Thiel, M A; Schmid, M K

2014-07-01

To clarify the screening potential of the Amsler grid and preferential hyperacuity perimetry (PHP) in detecting or ruling out wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Medline, Scopus and Web of Science (by citation of reference) were searched. Checking of reference lists of review articles and of included articles complemented electronic searches. Papers were selected, assessed, and extracted in duplicate. Systematic review and meta-analysis. Twelve included studies enrolled 903 patients and allowed constructing 27 two-by-two tables. Twelve tables reported on the Amsler grid and its modifications, twelve tables reported on the PHP, one table assessed the MCPT and two tables assessed the M-charts. All but two studies had a case-control design. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the Amsler grid was 0.78 (95% confidence intervals; 0.64-0.87), and the pooled specificity was 0.97 (95% confidence intervals; 0.91-0.99). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 23.1 (95% confidence intervals; 8.4-64.0) and 0.23 (95% confidence intervals; 0.14-0.39), respectively. The pooled sensitivity of studies assessing the PHP was 0.85 (95% confidence intervals; 0.80-0.89), and specificity was 0.87 (95% confidence intervals; 0.82-0.91). The corresponding positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.7 (95% confidence intervals; 4.6-9.8) and 0.17 (95% confidence intervals; 0.13-0.23). No pooling was possible for MCPT and M-charts. Results from small preliminary studies show promising test performance characteristics both for the Amsler grid and PHP to rule out wet AMD in the screening setting. To what extent these findings can be transferred to a real clinic practice still needs to be established.

Evaluation of an Automatic Registration-Based Algorithm for Direct Measurement of Volume Change in Tumors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sarkar, Saradwata; Johnson, Timothy D.; Ma, Bing

2012-07-01

Purpose: Assuming that early tumor volume change is a biomarker for response to therapy, accurate quantification of early volume changes could aid in adapting an individual patient's therapy and lead to shorter clinical trials. We investigated an image registration-based approach for tumor volume change quantification that may more reliably detect smaller changes that occur in shorter intervals than can be detected by existing algorithms. Methods and Materials: Variance and bias of the registration-based approach were evaluated using retrospective, in vivo, very-short-interval diffusion magnetic resonance imaging scans where true zero tumor volume change is unequivocally known and synthetic data, respectively. Themore » interval scans were nonlinearly registered using two similarity measures: mutual information (MI) and normalized cross-correlation (NCC). Results: The 95% confidence interval of the percentage volume change error was (-8.93% to 10.49%) for MI-based and (-7.69%, 8.83%) for NCC-based registrations. Linear mixed-effects models demonstrated that error in measuring volume change increased with increase in tumor volume and decreased with the increase in the tumor's normalized mutual information, even when NCC was the similarity measure being optimized during registration. The 95% confidence interval of the relative volume change error for the synthetic examinations with known changes over {+-}80% of reference tumor volume was (-3.02% to 3.86%). Statistically significant bias was not demonstrated. Conclusion: A low-noise, low-bias tumor volume change measurement algorithm using nonlinear registration is described. Errors in change measurement were a function of tumor volume and the normalized mutual information content of the tumor.« less

A mathematical framework to quantify the masking effect associated with the confidence intervals of measures of disproportionality

PubMed Central

Maignen, François; Hauben, Manfred; Dogné, Jean-Michel

2017-01-01

Background: The lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of measures of disproportionality (Lower95CI) is widely used in signal detection. Masking is a statistical issue by which true signals of disproportionate reporting are hidden by the presence of other medicines. The primary objective of our study is to develop and validate a mathematical framework for assessing the masking effect of Lower95CI. Methods: We have developed our new algorithm based on the masking ratio (MR) developed for the measures of disproportionality. A MR for the Lower95CI (MRCI) is proposed. A simulation study to validate this algorithm was also conducted. Results: We have established the existence of a very close mathematical relation between MR and MRCI. For a given drug–event pair, the same product will be responsible for the highest masking effect with the measure of disproportionality and its Lower95CI. The extent of masking is likely to be very similar across the two methods. An important proportion of identical drug–event associations affected by the presence of an important masking effect is revealed by the unmasking exercise, whether the proportional reporting ratio (PRR) or its confidence interval are used. Conclusion: The detection of the masking effect of Lower95CI can be automated. The real benefits of this unmasking in terms of new true-positive signals (rate of true-positive/false-positive) or time gained by the revealing of signals using this method have not been fully assessed. These benefits should be demonstrated in the context of prospective studies. PMID:28845231

Critical analysis of consecutive unilateral cleft lip repairs: determining ideal sample size.

PubMed

Power, Stephanie M; Matic, Damir B

2013-03-01

Objective : Cleft surgeons often show 10 consecutive lip repairs to reduce presentation bias, however the validity remains unknown. The purpose of this study is to determine the number of consecutive cases that represent average outcomes. Secondary objectives are to determine if outcomes correlate with cleft severity and to calculate interrater reliability. Design : Consecutive preoperative and 2-year postoperative photographs of the unilateral cleft lip-nose complex were randomized and evaluated by cleft surgeons. Parametric analysis was performed according to chronologic, consecutive order. The mean standard deviation over all raters enabled calculation of expected 95% confidence intervals around a mean tested for various sample sizes. Setting : Meeting of the American Cleft Palate-Craniofacial Association in 2009. Patients, Participants : Ten senior cleft surgeons evaluated 39 consecutive lip repairs. Main Outcome Measures : Preoperative severity and postoperative outcomes were evaluated using descriptive and quantitative scales. Results : Intraclass correlation coefficients for cleft severity and postoperative evaluations were 0.65 and 0.21, respectively. Outcomes did not correlate with cleft severity (P  =  .28). Calculations for 10 consecutive cases demonstrated wide 95% confidence intervals, spanning two points on both postoperative grading scales. Ninety-five percent confidence intervals narrowed within one qualitative grade (±0.30) and one point (±0.50) on the 10-point scale for 27 consecutive cases. Conclusions : Larger numbers of consecutive cases (n > 27) are increasingly representative of average results, but less practical in presentation format. Ten consecutive cases lack statistical support. Cleft surgeons showed low interrater reliability for postoperative assessments, which may reflect personal bias when evaluating another surgeon's results.

Influence of reminder therapy for controlling bacterial plaque in patients undergoing orthodontic treatment: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lima, Igor Felipe Pereira; de Andrade Vieira, Walbert; de Macedo Bernardino, Ítalo; Costa, Pedro Augusto; Lima, Anderson Paulo Barbosa; Pithon, Matheus Melo; Paranhos, Luiz Renato

2018-04-17

To assess the scientific evidence regarding the influence of reminder therapy on plaque index, gingival index, and white spots in patients subjected to orthodontic treatment. Randomized clinical trials were searched in the electronic databases LILACS, PubMed, SciELO, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, LIVIVO, and Cochrane Library. The databases OpenThesis and OpenGrey were used to capture the "gray literature," preventing selection and publication biases. The risk of bias was assessed by the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal Checklist for Randomized Controlled Trials tool. The software Review Manager was used for the meta-analysis. The heterogeneity among studies was assessed through the I 2 statistic. A summary of the overall strength of evidence available was assessed using the Grades of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation tool. A total of 332 records were found, from which only 7 articles met the inclusion criteria and were subjected to analysis. Reminder therapy showed improved scores for the plaque index (standardized mean difference = -1.22; 95% confidence interval = -2.03 to -0.42; P = .003) and the gingival index (standardized mean difference = 1.49; 95% confidence interval = -2.61 to 0.37; P = .009). Moreover, there was lower occurrence of white spots (relative risk = 0.53; 95% confidence interval = 0.38 to 0.74; P < .001) when reminder therapy was implemented. According to the existing high-quality evidence, reminder therapy is a valuable strategy and may contribute to the reduction of plaque and gingival indices as well as to the lower occurrence of white spots in patients subjected to orthodontic treatment.

The effect of aromatherapy massage on the psychological symptoms of postmenopausal Iranian women.

PubMed

Taavoni, S; Darsareh, F; Joolaee, S; Haghani, H

2013-06-01

Menopausal symptoms experienced by women vary widely, and while many women transition through menopause with manageable symptoms, others experience severe symptoms, which may impair their quality of life. A randomized clinical trial was conducted to determine the effect of aromatherapy massage on psychological symptoms during menopause. The study population comprised 90 women. Each subject in the aromatherapy massage group received 30 min aromatherapy sessions with aroma oil, twice a week, for four weeks; each subject in the massage therapy group received the same treatment with odorless oil, while no treatment was provided to subjects in the control group. The outcome measures were psychological symptoms, as obtained through the psychological subscale of the Menopause Rating Scale. A total of 87 women were evaluated. A statistically significant difference was found between the participants' pre- and post-application psychological score in intervention groups, whereas the score in the control group did not differ significantly. Aromatherapy massage decreased the psychological score MD: -3.49 (95% Confidence Interval of Difference: -4.52 to -2.47). Massage therapy also decreased the psychological score MD: -1.20 (95% Confidence Interval of Difference: -2.19 to -0.08). To distinguish the effect of aromatherapy from massage separately, we compared the reduction in the psychological score. Aromatherapy massage decreased the psychological score more than massage therapy MD: -2.29 (95% Confidence Interval of Difference: -3.01 to -0.47). Both aromatherapy massage and massage were effective in reducing psychological symptoms, but, the effect of aromatherapy massage was higher than massage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Implementation of standardized follow-up care significantly reduces peritonitis in children on chronic peritoneal dialysis.

PubMed

Neu, Alicia M; Richardson, Troy; Lawlor, John; Stuart, Jayne; Newland, Jason; McAfee, Nancy; Warady, Bradley A

2016-06-01

The Standardizing Care to improve Outcomes in Pediatric End stage renal disease (SCOPE) Collaborative aims to reduce peritonitis rates in pediatric chronic peritoneal dialysis patients by increasing implementation of standardized care practices. To assess this, monthly care bundle compliance and annualized monthly peritonitis rates were evaluated from 24 SCOPE centers that were participating at collaborative launch and that provided peritonitis rates for the 13 months prior to launch. Changes in bundle compliance were assessed using either a logistic regression model or a generalized linear mixed model. Changes in average annualized peritonitis rates over time were illustrated using the latter model. In the first 36 months of the collaborative, 644 patients with 7977 follow-up encounters were included. The likelihood of compliance with follow-up care practices increased significantly (odds ratio 1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.10, 1.19). Mean monthly peritonitis rates significantly decreased from 0.63 episodes per patient year (95% confidence interval 0.43, 0.92) prelaunch to 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.31, 0.57) at 36 months postlaunch. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that as mean follow-up compliance increased, peritonitis rates decreased, reaching statistical significance at 80% at which point the prelaunch rate was 42% higher than the rate in the months following achievement of 80% compliance. In its first 3 years, the SCOPE Collaborative has increased the implementation of standardized follow-up care and demonstrated a significant reduction in average monthly peritonitis rates. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resistance to penicillin of Staphylococcus aureus isolates from cows with high somatic cell counts in organic and conventional dairy herds in Denmark

PubMed Central

Bennedsgaard, Torben W; Thamsborg, Stig M; Aarestrup, Frank M; Enevoldsen, Carsten; Vaarst, Mette; Christoffersen, Anna B

2006-01-01

Background Quarter milk samples from cows with high risk of intramammary infection were examined to determine the prevalence of Staphylococcus aureus (SA) and penicillin resistant SA (SAr) in conventional and organic dairy herds and herds converting to organic farming in a combined longitudinal and cross-sectional study. Methods 20 conventional herds, 18 organic herds that converted before 1995, and 19 herds converting to organic farming in 1999 or 2000 were included in the study. Herds converting to organic farming were sampled three times one year apart; the other herds were sampled once. Risk of infection was estimated based on somatic cell count, milk production, breed, age and lactation stage. Results The high-risk cows represented about 49 % of the cows in the herds. The overall prevalence of SA and SAr among these cows was 29% (95% confidence interval: 24%–34%) and 4% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) respectively. The prevalence of penicillin resistance among SA infected cows was 12% (95% confidence interval: 6%–19%) when calculated from the first herd visits. No statistically significant differences were observed in the prevalence of SAr or the proportion of isolates resistant to penicillin between herd groups. Conclusion The proportion of isolates resistant to penicillin was low compared to studies in other countries except Norway and Sweden. Based on the low prevalence of penicillin resistance of SA, penicillin should still be the first choice of antimicrobial agent for treatment of bovine intramammary infection in Denmark. PMID:17125515

The effect of intensive glucose control on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke in persons with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Marso, Steven P; Kennedy, Kevin F; House, John A; McGuire, Darren K

2010-04-01

We performed a meta-analysis of studies evaluating the effect of intensive glucose control on major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes from 1990 to 2009. A search of the published literature and the Cochran Central Register for Controlled Trials was performed using pre-specified inclusion criteria consisting of randomised controlled trials evaluating intensive glycaemic control and reporting the individual endpoints of all-cause mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and non-fatal stroke. Incident rate ratios for these endpoints were calculated using standard meta-analytic techniques of pooled data from eligible trials. Six reports from four randomised trials including 27,544 patients met the pre-specified inclusion criteria. Mean follow-up was 5.4 years; haemoglobin A(1C) at study end was 6.6% vs. 7.4% in patients randomised to intensive compared with conventional glucose control. Intensive glucose control did not affect the incident rate ratio for all-cause mortality (1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.86-1.18, p=0.54) or stroke (1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.20, p=0.62). However, there was a statistically significant 14% reduction in non-fatal myocardial infarction in patients randomised to intensive glucose control (0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.77-0.97, p=0.015). Although intensification of glucose control did not affect mortality or non-fatal stroke, the risk for non-fatal myocardial infarction was significantly reduced in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Continuous Aspirin Use Does Not Increase Bleeding Risk of Split-Thickness Skin Transplantation Repair to Chronic Wounds.

PubMed

Sun, Yanwei; Wang, Yibing; Li, Liang; Zhang, Zheng; Wang, Ning; Wu, Dan

Discontinuation of aspirin therapy before cutaneous surgery may cause serious complications. The aim of this prospective study was to evaluate the bleeding risk of split-thickness skin transplantation repair to chronic wounds in patients on aspirin therapy. A total of 97 patients who underwent split-thickness skin transplantation surgery of chronic wounds during a 2-year period were enrolled. They were categorized on the basis of aspirin therapies. The primary outcome was postoperative bleeding and bleeding complications. Univariate analysis was performed to examine the association between aspirin and bleeding complications. Among the 26 patients taking aspirin continuously in group A, there were 5 bleeding complications (19.23%). Among the 55 nonusers in group B, there were 10 bleeding complications (18.18%). Among the 16 discontinuous patients in group C, there were 3 bleeding complications (18.75%). No statistical differences were found among the groups ( P = .956). Univariate analysis showed that continuous aspirin use was not significantly associated with bleeding complications (odds ratio, 0.933; 95% confidence interval, 0.283-3.074; P = .910 in the aspirin and control groups) and that discontinuous aspirin use was not significantly associated with bleeding complications (odds ratio, 0.963; 95% confidence interval, 0.230-4.025; P = .959 in the aspirin and control groups; odds ratio, 0.969; 95% confidence interval, 0.198-4.752; P = .969 in the aspirin and discontinuous groups). Continuous aspirin use does not produce an additional bleeding risk in patients who undergo split-thickness skin transplantation repair of chronic wounds.

C-reactive protein and serum creatinine, but not haemoglobin A1c, are independent predictors of coronary heart disease risk in non-diabetic Chinese.

PubMed

Salim, Agus; Tai, E Shyong; Tan, Vincent Y; Welsh, Alan H; Liew, Reginald; Naidoo, Nasheen; Wu, Yi; Yuan, Jian-Min; Koh, Woon P; van Dam, Rob M

2016-08-01

In western populations, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and to a lesser degree serum creatinine and haemoglobin A1c, predict risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, data on Asian populations that are increasingly affected by CHD are sparse and it is not clear whether these biomarkers can be used to improve CHD risk classification. We conducted a nested case-control study within the Singapore Chinese Health Study cohort, with incident 'hard' CHD (myocardial infarction or CHD death) as an outcome. We used data from 965 men (298 cases, 667 controls) and 528 women (143 cases, 385 controls) to examine the utility of hsCRP, serum creatinine and haemoglobin A1c in improving the prediction of CHD risk over and above traditional risk factors for CHD included in the ATP III model. For each sex, the performance of models with only traditional risk factors used in the ATP III model was compared with models with the biomarkers added using weighted Cox proportional hazards analysis. The impact of adding these biomarkers was assessed using the net reclassification improvement index. For men, loge hsCRP (hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.05; 1.49) and loge serum creatinine (hazard ratio 4.82, 95% confidence interval: 2.10; 11.04) showed statistically significantly associations with CHD risk when added to the ATP III model. We did not observe a significant association between loge haemoglobin A1c and CHD risk (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 0.21; 16.06). Adding hsCRP and serum creatinine to the ATP III model improved risk classification in men with a net gain of 6.3% of cases (p-value = 0.001) being reclassified to a higher risk category, while it did not significantly reduce the accuracy of classification for non-cases. For women, squared hsCRP was borderline significantly (hazard ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval: 1.00; 1.03) and squared serum creatinine was significantly (hazard ratio 1.81, 95% confidence interval: 1.49; 2.21) associated with CHD risk. However, the association between squared haemoglobin A1c and CHD risk was not significant (hazard ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval: 0.99; 1.12). The addition of hsCRP and serum creatinine to the ATP III model resulted in 3.7% of future cases being reclassified to a higher risk category (p-value = 0.025), while it did not significantly reduce the accuracy of classification for non-cases. Adding hsCRP and serum creatinine, but not haemoglobin A1c, to traditional risk factors improved CHD risk prediction among non-diabetic Singaporean Chinese. The improved risk estimates will allow better identification of individuals at high risk of CHD than existing risk calculators such as the ATP III model. © The European Society of Cardiology 2016.

Small sample mediation testing: misplaced confidence in bootstrapped confidence intervals.

PubMed

Koopman, Joel; Howe, Michael; Hollenbeck, John R; Sin, Hock-Peng

2015-01-01

Bootstrapping is an analytical tool commonly used in psychology to test the statistical significance of the indirect effect in mediation models. Bootstrapping proponents have particularly advocated for its use for samples of 20-80 cases. This advocacy has been heeded, especially in the Journal of Applied Psychology, as researchers are increasingly utilizing bootstrapping to test mediation with samples in this range. We discuss reasons to be concerned with this escalation, and in a simulation study focused specifically on this range of sample sizes, we demonstrate not only that bootstrapping has insufficient statistical power to provide a rigorous hypothesis test in most conditions but also that bootstrapping has a tendency to exhibit an inflated Type I error rate. We then extend our simulations to investigate an alternative empirical resampling method as well as a Bayesian approach and demonstrate that they exhibit comparable statistical power to bootstrapping in small samples without the associated inflated Type I error. Implications for researchers testing mediation hypotheses in small samples are presented. For researchers wishing to use these methods in their own research, we have provided R syntax in the online supplemental materials. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Inverse modeling with RZWQM2 to predict water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nolan, Bernard T.; Malone, Robert W.; Ma, Liwang; Green, Christopher T.; Fienen, Michael N.; Jaynes, Dan B.

2011-01-01

This chapter presents guidelines for autocalibration of the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) by inverse modeling using PEST parameter estimation software (Doherty, 2010). Two sites with diverse climate and management were considered for simulation of N losses by leaching and in drain flow: an almond [Prunus dulcis (Mill.) D.A. Webb] orchard in the San Joaquin Valley, California and the Walnut Creek watershed in central Iowa, which is predominantly in corn (Zea mays L.)–soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] rotation. Inverse modeling provides an objective statistical basis for calibration that involves simultaneous adjustment of model parameters and yields parameter confidence intervals and sensitivities. We describe operation of PEST in both parameter estimation and predictive analysis modes. The goal of parameter estimation is to identify a unique set of parameters that minimize a weighted least squares objective function, and the goal of predictive analysis is to construct a nonlinear confidence interval for a prediction of interest by finding a set of parameters that maximizes or minimizes the prediction while maintaining the model in a calibrated state. We also describe PEST utilities (PAR2PAR, TSPROC) for maintaining ordered relations among model parameters (e.g., soil root growth factor) and for post-processing of RZWQM2 outputs representing different cropping practices at the Iowa site. Inverse modeling provided reasonable fits to observed water and N fluxes and directly benefitted the modeling through: (i) simultaneous adjustment of multiple parameters versus one-at-a-time adjustment in manual approaches; (ii) clear indication by convergence criteria of when calibration is complete; (iii) straightforward detection of nonunique and insensitive parameters, which can affect the stability of PEST and RZWQM2; and (iv) generation of confidence intervals for uncertainty analysis of parameters and model predictions. Composite scaled sensitivities, which reflect the total information provided by the observations for a parameter, indicated that most of the RZWQM2 parameters at the California study site (CA) and Iowa study site (IA) could be reliably estimated by regression. Correlations obtained in the CA case indicated that all model parameters could be uniquely estimated by inverse modeling. Although water content at field capacity was highly correlated with bulk density (−0.94), the correlation is less than the threshold for nonuniqueness (0.95, absolute value basis). Additionally, we used truncated singular value decomposition (SVD) at CA to mitigate potential problems with highly correlated and insensitive parameters. Singular value decomposition estimates linear combinations (eigenvectors) of the original process-model parameters. Parameter confidence intervals (CIs) at CA indicated that parameters were reliably estimated with the possible exception of an organic pool transfer coefficient (R45), which had a comparatively wide CI. However, the 95% confidence interval for R45 (0.03–0.35) is mostly within the range of values reported for this parameter. Predictive analysis at CA generated confidence intervals that were compared with independently measured annual water flux (groundwater recharge) and median nitrate concentration in a collocated monitoring well as part of model evaluation. Both the observed recharge (42.3 cm yr−1) and nitrate concentration (24.3 mg L−1) were within their respective 90% confidence intervals, indicating that overall model error was within acceptable limits.

Confidence interval estimation of the difference between two sensitivities to the early disease stage.

PubMed

Dong, Tuochuan; Kang, Le; Hutson, Alan; Xiong, Chengjie; Tian, Lili

2014-03-01

Although most of the statistical methods for diagnostic studies focus on disease processes with binary disease status, many diseases can be naturally classified into three ordinal diagnostic categories, that is normal, early stage, and fully diseased. For such diseases, the volume under the ROC surface (VUS) is the most commonly used index of diagnostic accuracy. Because the early disease stage is most likely the optimal time window for therapeutic intervention, the sensitivity to the early diseased stage has been suggested as another diagnostic measure. For the purpose of comparing the diagnostic abilities on early disease detection between two markers, it is of interest to estimate the confidence interval of the difference between sensitivities to the early diseased stage. In this paper, we present both parametric and non-parametric methods for this purpose. An extensive simulation study is carried out for a variety of settings for the purpose of evaluating and comparing the performance of the proposed methods. A real example of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is analyzed using the proposed approaches. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Use of aromatherapy products and increased risk of hand dermatitis in massage therapists.

PubMed

Crawford, Glen H; Katz, Kenneth A; Ellis, Elliot; James, William D

2004-08-01

To determine the 12-month prevalence of hand dermatitis among massage therapists, to investigate a potential association between hand dermatitis and the use of aromatherapy products, and to study potential associations with other known risk factors for hand dermatitis. Mailed survey. Philadelphia, Pa. Members of a national massage therapy organization who live in the greater Philadelphia region. Self-reported and symptom-based prevalences of hand dermatitis. The number of respondents was 350 (57%). The 12-month prevalence of hand dermatitis in subjects was 15% by self-reported criteria and 23% by a symptom-based method. In multivariate analysis, statistically significant independent risk factors for self-reported hand dermatitis included use of aromatherapy products in massage oils, lotions, or creams (odds ratio, 3.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-7.02; P =.002) and history of atopic dermatitis (odds ratio, 8.06; 95% confidence interval, 3.39-19.17; P<.001). The prevalence of hand dermatitis in massage therapists is high. Significant independent risk factors include use of aromatherapy products in massage oils, creams, or lotions and history of atopic dermatitis.

Online physician review websites poorly correlate to a validated metric of patient satisfaction.

PubMed

Chen, Jennwood; Presson, Angela; Zhang, Chong; Ray, David; Finlayson, Samuel; Glasgow, Robert

2018-07-01

Physician review websites such as Vitals and Healthgrades are becoming an increasingly popular tool for patients to choose providers. We hypothesized that the scores of these surveys poorly represent the true value of patient satisfaction when compared to a validated survey instrument. Answers from Vitals and Healthgrades online surveys were compared to the Press Ganey Medical Practice Survey (PGMPS) for 200 faculty members at a university hospital for FY15. Weighted Pearson's correlation was used to compare Healthgrades and Vitals to PGMPS. While statistically significant, both Vitals and Healthgrades had very low correlations with the PGMPS with weighted coefficients of 0.18 (95% confidence interval: 0.02-0.34, P = 0.025) and 0.27 (95% confidence interval: 0.12-0.42, P < 0.001), respectively. Online physician rating websites such as Vitals and Healthgrades poorly correlate with the PGMPS, a validated measure of patient satisfaction. Patients should be aware of these limitations and, consequently, should have access to the most accurate measure of patient satisfaction. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in all-cause and cardiac mortality and morbidity in a population of Danish citizens.

PubMed

Elming, H; Holm, E; Jun, L; Torp-Pedersen, C; Køber, L; Kircshoff, M; Malik, M; Camm, J

1998-09-01

To evaluate the prognostic value of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion in total and in cardiovascular mortality, as well as in cardiac morbidity, in a general population. The QT interval was measured in all leads from a standard 12-lead ECG in a random sample of 1658 women and 1797 men aged 30-60 years. QT interval dispersion was calculated from the maximal difference between QT intervals in any two leads. All cause mortality over 13 years, and cardiovascular mortality as well as cardiac morbidity over 11 years, were the main outcome parameters. Subjects with a prolonged QT interval (430 ms or more) or prolonged QT interval dispersion (80 ms or more) were at higher risk of cardiovascular death and cardiac morbidity than subjects whose QT interval was less than 360 ms, or whose QT interval dispersion was less than 30 ms. Cardiovascular death relative risk ratios, adjusted for age, gender, myocardial infarct, angina pectoris, diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, smoking habits, serum cholesterol level, and heart rate were 2.9 for the QT interval (95% confidence interval 1.1-7.8) and 4.4 for QT interval dispersion (95% confidence interval 1.0-19-1). Fatal and non-fatal cardiac morbidity relative risk ratios were similar, at 2.7 (95% confidence interval 1.4-5.5) for the QT interval and 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1-4.0) for QT interval dispersion. Prolongation of the QT interval and QT interval dispersion independently affected the prognosis of cardiovascular mortality and cardiac fatal and non-fatal morbidity in a general population over 11 years.

The other half of the story: effect size analysis in quantitative research.

PubMed

Maher, Jessica Middlemis; Markey, Jonathan C; Ebert-May, Diane

2013-01-01

Statistical significance testing is the cornerstone of quantitative research, but studies that fail to report measures of effect size are potentially missing a robust part of the analysis. We provide a rationale for why effect size measures should be included in quantitative discipline-based education research. Examples from both biological and educational research demonstrate the utility of effect size for evaluating practical significance. We also provide details about some effect size indices that are paired with common statistical significance tests used in educational research and offer general suggestions for interpreting effect size measures. Finally, we discuss some inherent limitations of effect size measures and provide further recommendations about reporting confidence intervals.

Solar activity prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Slutz, R. J.; Gray, T. B.; West, M. L.; Stewart, F. G.; Leftin, M.

1971-01-01

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Assessment of Acridine Orange and SYTO 16 for in vivo imaging of the peritoneal tissues in mice

PubMed Central

Udovich, Joshua Anthony; Besselsen, David G.; Gmitro, Arthur F.

2009-01-01

The effect of peritoneal injection of Acridine Orange (AO) and SYTO 16 in mice was investigated. Images of peritoneal tissues stained with these dyes and obtained through a confocal microendoscope are presented. Seventy-five Balb/c mice were split into five groups and given peritoneal injections of dye or saline. The proportions of negative outcomes in each group were compared using confidence intervals and the Fisher's exact statistical test. A statistically significant increase in adverse events due to dye injection was not observed.These data provide an initial investigation into the safety of AO and SYTO 16 for in vivo imaging. PMID:19397741

Validating Coherence Measurements Using Aligned and Unaligned Coherence Functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miles, Jeffrey Hilton

2006-01-01

This paper describes a novel approach based on the use of coherence functions and statistical theory for sensor validation in a harsh environment. By the use of aligned and unaligned coherence functions and statistical theory one can test for sensor degradation, total sensor failure or changes in the signal. This advanced diagnostic approach and the novel data processing methodology discussed provides a single number that conveys this information. This number as calculated with standard statistical procedures for comparing the means of two distributions is compared with results obtained using Yuen's robust statistical method to create confidence intervals. Examination of experimental data from Kulite pressure transducers mounted in a Pratt & Whitney PW4098 combustor using spectrum analysis methods on aligned and unaligned time histories has verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. All the procedures produce good results which demonstrates how robust the technique is.

Multiple Versus Single Set Validation of Multivariate Models to Avoid Mistakes.

PubMed

Harrington, Peter de Boves

2018-01-02

Validation of multivariate models is of current importance for a wide range of chemical applications. Although important, it is neglected. The common practice is to use a single external validation set for evaluation. This approach is deficient and may mislead investigators with results that are specific to the single validation set of data. In addition, no statistics are available regarding the precision of a derived figure of merit (FOM). A statistical approach using bootstrapped Latin partitions is advocated. This validation method makes an efficient use of the data because each object is used once for validation. It was reviewed a decade earlier but primarily for the optimization of chemometric models this review presents the reasons it should be used for generalized statistical validation. Average FOMs with confidence intervals are reported and powerful, matched-sample statistics may be applied for comparing models and methods. Examples demonstrate the problems with single validation sets.

Enzyme replacement therapy for Anderson-Fabry disease.

PubMed

El Dib, Regina; Gomaa, Huda; Carvalho, Raíssa Pierri; Camargo, Samira E; Bazan, Rodrigo; Barretti, Pasqual; Barreto, Fellype C

2016-07-25

Anderson-Fabry disease is an X-linked defect of glycosphingolipid metabolism. Progressive renal insufficiency is a major source of morbidity, additional complications result from cardio- and cerebro-vascular involvement. Survival is reduced among affected males and symptomatic female carriers.This is an update of a Cochrane review first published in 2010, and previously updated in 2013. To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of enzyme replacement therapy compared to other interventions, placebo or no interventions, for treating Anderson-Fabry disease. We searched the Cystic Fibrosis and Genetic Disorders Group's Inborn Errors of Metabolism Trials Register (date of the most recent search: 08 July 2016). We also searched 'Clinical Trials' on The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, Embase and LILACS (date of the most recent search: 24 September 2015). Randomized controlled trials of agalsidase alfa or beta in participants diagnosed with Anderson-Fabry disease. Two authors selected relevant trials, assessed methodological quality and extracted data. Nine trials comparing either agalsidase alfa or beta in 351 participants fulfilled the selection criteria.Both trials comparing agalsidase alfa to placebo reported on globotriaosylceramide concentration in plasma and tissue; aggregate results were non-significant. One trial reported pain scores measured by the Brief Pain Inventory severity, there was a statistically significant improvement for participants receiving treatment at up to three months, mean difference -2.10 (95% confidence interval -3.79 to -0.41; at up to five months, mean difference -1.90 (95% confidence interval -3.65 to -0.15); and at up to six months, mean difference -2.00 (95% confidence interval -3.66 to -0.34). There was a significant difference in the Brief Pain Inventory pain-related quality of life at over five months and up to six months, mean difference -2.10 (95% confidence interval -3.92 to -0.28) but not at other time points. Death was not an outcome in either of the trials.One of the three trials comparing agalsidase beta to placebo reported on globotriaosylceramide concentration in plasma and tissue and showed significant improvement: kidney, mean difference -1.70 (95% confidence interval -2.09 to -1.31); heart, mean difference -0.90 (95% confidence interval -1.18 to -0.62); and composite results (renal, cardiac, and cerebrovascular complications and death), mean difference -4.80 (95% confidence interval -5.45 to -4.15). There was no significant difference between groups for death; no trials reported on pain.Only two trials compared agalsidase alfa to agalsidase beta. One of them showed no significant difference between the groups regarding adverse events, risk ratio 0.36 (95% confidence interval 0.08 to 1.59), or any serious adverse events; risk ratio 0.30; (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 2.57).Two trials compared different dosing schedules of agalsidase alfa. One of them involved three different doses (0.2 mg/kg every two weeks; 0.1 mg/kg weekly and; 0.2 mg/kg weekly), the other trial evaluated two further doses to the dosage schedules: 0.4 mg/kg every week and every other week. Both trials failed to show significant differences with various dosing schedules on globotriaosylceramide levels. No significant differences were found among the schedules for the primary efficacy outcome of self-assessed health state, or for pain scores.One trial comparing agalsidase alfa to agalsidase beta showed no significant difference for any adverse events such as dyspnoea and hypertension.The methodological quality of the included trials was generally unclear for the random sequence generation and allocation concealment. Trials comparing enzyme replacement therapy to placebo show significant improvement with enzyme replacement therapy in regard to microvascular endothelial deposits of globotriaosylceramide and in pain-related quality of life. There is, however, no evidence identifying if the alfa or beta form is superior or the optimal dose or frequency of enzyme replacement therapy. With regards to safety, adverse events (i.e., rigors, fever) were more significant in the agalsidase beta as compared to placebo. The long-term influence of enzyme replacement therapy on risk of morbidity and mortality related to Anderson-Fabry disease remains to be established. This review highlights the need for continued research into the use of enzyme replacement therapy for Anderson-Fabry disease.

Compliance with removable orthodontic appliances.

PubMed

Shah, Nirmal

2017-12-22

Data sourcesMedline via OVID, PubMed, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science Core Collection, LILACS and BBO databases. Unpublished clinical trials accessed using ClinicalTrials.gov, National Research Register, ProQuest Dissertation and Thesis database.Study selectionTwo authors searched studies from inception until May 2016 without language restrictions. Quantitative and qualitative studies incorporating objective data on compliance with removable appliances, barriers to appliance wear compliance, and interventions to improve compliance were included.Data extraction and synthesisQuality of research was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool, the risk of bias in non-randomised studies of interventions (ROBINS-I), and the mixed methods appraisal tool. Statistical heterogeneity was investigated by examining a graphic display of the estimated compliance levels in conjunction with 95% confidence intervals and quantified using the I-squared statistic. A weighted estimate of objective compliance levels for different appliances in relation to stipulated wear and self-reported levels was also calculated. Risk of publication bias was assessed using funnel plots. Meta-regression was undertaken to assess the relative effects of appliance type on compliance levels.ResultsTwenty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 11 were included in the quantitative synthesis. The mean duration of objectively measured wear was considerably lower than stipulated wear time amongst all appliances. Headgear had the greatest discrepancy (5.81 hours, 95% confidence interval, 4.98, 6.64). Self-reported wear time was consistently higher than objectively measured wear time amongst all appliances. Headgear had the greatest discrepancy (5.02 hours, 95% confidence interval, 3.64, 6.40). Two studies found an increase in compliance with headgear and Hawley retainers when patients were aware of monitoring. Five studies found younger age groups to be more compliant than older groups. Three studies also found compliance to be better in the early stages of treatment. Integration between quantitative and qualitative studies was not possible.ConclusionsCompliance with removable orthodontic appliances is suboptimal. Patients wear appliances for considerably less time than stipulated and self-reported. Compliance may be increased when patients are aware of monitoring; however, further research is required to identify effective interventions and possible barriers in order to improve removable orthodontic appliance compliance.

Assessing exercise cardiac reserve using real-time cardiovascular magnetic resonance.

PubMed

Le, Thu-Thao; Bryant, Jennifer Ann; Ting, Alicia Er; Ho, Pei Yi; Su, Boyang; Teo, Raymond Choon Chye; Gan, Julian Siong-Jin; Chung, Yiu-Cho; O'Regan, Declan P; Cook, Stuart A; Chin, Calvin Woon-Loong

2017-01-23

Exercise cardiovascular magnetic resonance (ExCMR) has great potential for clinical use but its development has been limited by a lack of compatible equipment and robust real-time imaging techniques. We developed an exCMR protocol using an in-scanner cycle ergometer and assessed its performance in differentiating athletes from non-athletes. Free-breathing real-time CMR (1.5T Aera, Siemens) was performed in 11 athletes (5 males; median age 29 [IQR: 28-39] years) and 16 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers (7 males; median age 26 [interquartile range (IQR): 25-33] years). All participants underwent an in-scanner exercise protocol on a CMR compatible cycle ergometer (Lode BV, the Netherlands), with an initial workload of 25W followed by 25W-increment every minute. In 20 individuals, exercise capacity was also evaluated by cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET). Scan-rescan reproducibility was assessed in 10 individuals, at least 7 days apart. The exCMR protocol demonstrated excellent scan-rescan (cardiac index (CI): 0.2 ± 0.5L/min/m 2 ) and inter-observer (ventricular volumes: 1.2 ± 5.3mL) reproducibility. CI derived from exCMR and CPET had excellent correlation (r = 0.83, p < 0.001) and agreement (1.7 ± 1.8L/min/m 2 ). Despite similar values at rest (P = 0.87), athletes had increased exercise CI compared to healthy individuals (at peak exercise: 12.2 [IQR: 10.2-13.5] L/min/m 2 versus 8.9 [IQR: 7.5-10.1] L/min/m 2 , respectively; P < 0.001). Peak exercise CI, where image acquisition lasted 13-17 s, outperformed that at rest (c-statistics = 0.95 [95% confidence interval: 0.87-1.00] versus 0.48 [95% confidence interval: 0.23-0.72], respectively; P < 0.0001 for comparison) in differentiating athletes from healthy volunteers; and had similar performance as VO 2max (c-statistics = 0.84 [95% confidence interval = 0.62-1.00]; P = 0.29 for comparison). We have developed a novel in-scanner exCMR protocol using real-time CMR that is highly reproducible. It may now be developed for clinical use for physiological studies of the heart and circulation.

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium and the risk of stroke among men.

PubMed

Adebamowo, Sally N; Spiegelman, Donna; Flint, Alan J; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M

2015-10-01

Intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium have been inversely associated with the incidence of hypertension, a known risk factor for stroke. However, only a few studies have examined intakes of these cations in relation to risk of stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate whether high intake of magnesium, potassium, and calcium is associated with reduced stroke risk among men. We prospectively examined the associations between intakes of magnesium, potassium, and calcium from diet and supplements, and the risk of incident stroke among 42 669 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, aged 40 to 75 years and free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer at baseline in 1986. We calculated the hazard ratio of total, ischemic, and haemorrhagic strokes by quintiles of each cation intake, and of a combined dietary score of all three cations, using multivariate Cox proportional hazard models. During 24 years of follow-up, 1547 total stroke events were documented. In multivariate analyses, the relative risks and 95% confidence intervals of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile were 0·87 (95% confidence interval, 0·74-1·02; P, trend = 0·04) for dietary magnesium, 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·76-1·05; P, trend = 0·10) for dietary potassium, and 0·89 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-1·04; P, trend = 0·25) for dietary calcium intake. The relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·74 (95% confidence interval, 0·59-0·93; P, trend = 0·003) for supplemental magnesium, 0·66 (95% confidence interval, 0·50-0·86; P, trend = 0·002) for supplemental potassium, and 1·01 (95% confidence interval, 0·84-1·20; P, trend = 0·83) for supplemental calcium intake. For total intake (dietary and supplemental), the relative risk of total stroke for men in the highest vs. lowest quintile was 0·83 (95% confidence interval, 0·70-0·99; P, trend = 0·04) for magnesium, 0·88 (95% confidence interval, 0·75-4; P, trend = 6) for potassium, and 3 (95% confidence interval, 79-09; P, trend = 84) for calcium. Men in the highest quintile for a combined dietary score of all three cations had a multivariate relative risk of 0·79 (95% confidence interval, 0·67-0·92; P, trend = 0·008) for total stroke, compared with those in the lowest. A diet rich in magnesium, potassium, and calcium may contribute to reduced risk of stroke among men. Because of significant collinearity, the independent contribution of each cation is difficult to define. © 2015 World Stroke Organization.

Neuraxial analgesia to increase the success rate of external cephalic version: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Magro-Malosso, Elena Rita; Saccone, Gabriele; Di Tommaso, Mariarosaria; Mele, Michele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2016-09-01

External cephalic version is a medical procedure in which the fetus is externally manipulated to assume the cephalic presentation. The use of neuraxial analgesia for facilitating the version has been evaluated in several randomized clinical trials, but its potential effects are still controversial. The objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of neuraxial analgesia as an intervention to increase the success rate of external cephalic version. Searches were performed in electronic databases with the use of a combination of text words related to external cephalic version and neuraxial analgesia from the inception of each database to January 2016. We included all randomized clinical trials of women, with a gestational age ≥36 weeks and breech or transverse fetal presentation, undergoing external cephalic version who were randomized to neuraxial analgesia, including spinal, epidural, or combined spinal-epidural techniques (ie, intervention group) or to a control group (either intravenous analgesia or no treatment). The primary outcome was the successful external cephalic version. The summary measures were reported as relative risk or as mean differences with a 95% confidence interval. Nine randomized clinical trials (934 women) were included in this review. Women who received neuraxial analgesia had a significantly higher incidence of successful external cephalic version (58.4% vs 43.1%; relative risk, 1.44, 95% confidence interval, 1.27-1.64), cephalic presentation in labor (55.1% vs 40.2%; relative risk, 1.37, 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.73), and vaginal delivery (54.0% vs 44.6%; relative risk, 1.21, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.41) compared with those who did not. Women who were randomized to the intervention group also had a significantly lower incidence of cesarean delivery (46.0% vs 55.3%; relative risk, 0.83, 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.97), maternal discomfort (1.2% vs 9.3%; relative risk, 0.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.99), and lower pain, assessed by the visual analog scale pain score (mean difference, -4.52 points, 95% confidence interval, -5.35 to 3.69) compared with the control group. The incidences of emergency cesarean delivery (1.6% vs 2.5%; relative risk, 0.63, 95% confidence interval, 0.24-1.70), transient bradycardia (11.8% vs 8.3%; relative risk, 1.42, 95% confidence interval, 0.72-2.80), nonreassuring fetal testing, excluding transient bradycardia, after external cephalic version (6.9% vs 7.4%; relative risk, 0.93, 95% confidence interval, 0.53-1.64), and abruption placentae (0.4% vs 0.4%; relative risk, 1.01, 95% confidence interval, 0.06-16.1) were similar. Administration of neuraxial analgesia significantly increases the success rate of external cephalic version among women with malpresentation at term or late preterm, which then significantly increases the incidence of vaginal delivery. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of General Anesthesia on Safety and Outcomes in the Endovascular Arm of Interventional Management of Stroke (IMS) III Trial.

PubMed

Abou-Chebl, Alex; Yeatts, Sharon D; Yan, Bernard; Cockroft, Kevin; Goyal, Mayank; Jovin, Tudor; Khatri, Pooja; Meyers, Phillip; Spilker, Judith; Sugg, Rebecca; Wartenberg, Katja E; Tomsick, Tom; Broderick, Joe; Hill, Michael D

2015-08-01

General anesthesia (GA) for endovascular therapy (EVT) of acute ischemic stroke may be associated with worse outcomes. The Interventional Management of Stroke III trial randomized patients within 3 hours of acute ischemic stroke onset to intravenous tissue-type plasminogen activator±EVT. GA use within 7 hours of stroke onset was recorded per protocol. Good outcome was defined as 90-day modified Rankin Scale ≤2. A multivariable analysis adjusting for dichotomized National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS; 8-19 versus ≥20), age, and time from onset to groin puncture was performed. Four hundred thirty-four patients were randomized to EVT, 269 (62%) were treated under local anesthesia and 147 (33.9%) under GA; 18 (4%) were undetermined. The 2 groups were comparable except for median baseline NIHSS (16 local anesthesia versus 18 GA; P<0.0001). The GA group was less likely to achieve a good outcome (adjusted relative risk, 0.68; confidence interval, 0.52-0.90; P=0.0056) and had increased in-hospital mortality (adjusted relative risk, 2.84; confidence interval, 1.65-4.91; P=0.0002). Those with medically indicated GA had worse outcomes (adjusted relative risk, 0.49; confidence interval, 0.30-0.81; P=0.005) and increased mortality (relative risk, 3.93; confidence interval, 2.18-7.10; P<0.0001) with a trend for higher mortality with routine GA. There was no significant difference in the adjusted risks of subarachnoid hemorrhage (P=0.32) or symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (P=0.37). GA was associated with worse neurological outcomes and increased mortality in the EVT arm; this was primarily true among patients with medical indications for GA. Relative risk estimates, though not statistically significant, suggest reduced risk for subarachnoid hemorrhage and symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage under local anesthesia. Although the reasons for these associations are not clear, these data support the use of local anesthesia when possible during EVT. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00359424. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation.

PubMed

Atchison, Christie M; Amankwah, Ernest; Wilhelm, Jean; Arlikar, Shilpa; Branchford, Brian R; Stock, Arabela; Streiff, Michael; Takemoto, Clifford; Ayala, Irmel; Everett, Allen; Stapleton, Gary; Jacobs, Marshall L; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Goldenberg, Neil A

2018-02-01

Paediatric hospital-associated venous thromboembolism is a leading quality and safety concern at children's hospitals. The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. We conducted a retrospective, case-control study of children admitted to the cardiovascular intensive care unit at Johns Hopkins All Children's Hospital (St. Petersburg, Florida, United States of America) from 2006 to 2013. Hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases were identified based on ICD-9 discharge codes and validated using radiological record review. We randomly selected two contemporaneous cardiovascular intensive care unit controls without hospital-associated venous thromboembolism for each hospital-associated venous thromboembolism case, and limited the study population to patients who had undergone cardiothoracic surgery or therapeutic cardiac catheterisation. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between putative risk factors and hospital-associated venous thromboembolism were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Among 2718 admissions to the cardiovascular intensive care unit during the study period, 65 met the criteria for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (occurrence rate, 2%). Restriction to cases and controls having undergone the procedures of interest yielded a final study population of 57 hospital-associated venous thromboembolism cases and 76 controls. In a multiple logistic regression model, major infection (odds ratio=5.77, 95% confidence interval=1.06-31.4), age ⩽1 year (odds ratio=6.75, 95% confidence interval=1.13-160), and central venous catheterisation (odds ratio=7.36, 95% confidence interval=1.13-47.8) were found to be statistically significant independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in these children. Patients with all three factors had a markedly increased post-test probability of having hospital-associated venous thromboembolism. Major infection, infancy, and central venous catheterisation are independent risk factors for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism in critically ill children following cardiothoracic surgery or cardiac catheter-based intervention, which, in combination, define a high-risk group for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism.

Longitudinal Associations of Smoke-Free Policies and Incident Cardiovascular Disease: CARDIA Study.

PubMed

Mayne, Stephanie L; Widome, Rachel; Carroll, Allison J; Schreiner, Pamela J; Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Jacobs, David R; Kershaw, Kiarri N

2018-05-07

Background -Smoke-free legislation has been associated with lower rates of cardiovascular disease hospital admissions in ecological studies. However, prior studies lacked detailed information on individual-level factors (eg, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics) that could potentially confound associations. Our objective was to estimate associations of smoke-free policies with incident cardiovascular disease in a longitudinal cohort after controlling for sociodemographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, and policy covariates. Methods -Longitudinal data from 3783 black and white adults in the CARDIA study (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults; 1995-2015) were linked to state, county, and local 100% smoke-free policies in bars, restaurants, and nonhospitality workplaces by Census tract. Extended Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of incident cardiovascular disease associated with time-dependent smoke-free policy exposures. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, state cigarette tax, participant-reported presence of a smoking ban at their workplace, field center, and metropolitan statistical area poverty. Results -During a median follow-up of 20 years (68 332 total personyears), 172 participants had an incident cardiovascular disease event (2.5 per 1000 person-years). Over the follow-up period, 80% of participants lived in areas with smoke-free policies in restaurants, 67% in bars, and 65% in nonhospitality workplaces. In fully adjusted models, participants living in an area with a restaurant, bar, or workplace smoke-free policy had a lower risk of incident cardiovascular disease compared with those in areas without smoke-free policies (HR, 0.75, 95% confidence interval, 0.49-1.15; HR, 0.76, 95% confidence interval, 0.47-1.24; HR, 0.54, 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.86, respectively; HR, 0.58, 95% confidence interval, 0.33-1.00 for living in an area with all 3 types of policies compared with none). The estimated preventive fraction was 25% for restaurant policies, 24% for bar policies, and 46% for workplace policies. Conclusions -Consistent with prior ecological studies, these individual-based data add to the evidence that 100% smoke-free policies are associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease among middle-aged adults.

Circulating Biomarkers of Dairy Fat and Risk of Incident Diabetes Mellitus Among Men and Women in the United States in Two Large Prospective Cohorts.

PubMed

Yakoob, Mohammad Y; Shi, Peilin; Willett, Walter C; Rexrode, Kathryn M; Campos, Hannia; Orav, E John; Hu, Frank B; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2016-04-26

In prospective studies, the relationship of self-reported consumption of dairy foods with risk of diabetes mellitus is inconsistent. Few studies have assessed dairy fat, using circulating biomarkers, and incident diabetes mellitus. We tested the hypothesis that circulating fatty acid biomarkers of dairy fat, 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, are associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Among 3333 adults aged 30 to 75 years and free of prevalent diabetes mellitus at baseline, total plasma and erythrocyte fatty acids were measured in blood collected in 1989 to 1990 (Nurses' Health Study) and 1993 to 1994 (Health Professionals Follow-Up Study). Incident diabetes mellitus through 2010 was confirmed by a validated supplementary questionnaire based on symptoms, diagnostic tests, and medications. Risk was assessed by using Cox proportional hazards, with cohort findings combined by meta-analysis. During mean±standard deviation follow-up of 15.2±5.6 years, 277 new cases of diabetes mellitus were diagnosed. In pooled multivariate analyses adjusting for demographics, metabolic risk factors, lifestyle, diet, and other circulating fatty acids, individuals with higher plasma 15:0 had a 44% lower risk of diabetes mellitus (quartiles 4 versus 1, hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.37-0.86; P-trend=0.01); higher plasma 17:0, 43% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.57; 95% confidence interval, 0.39-0.83; P-trend=0.01); and higher t-16:1n-7, 52% lower risk (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.70; P-trend <0.001). Findings were similar for erythrocyte 15:0, 17:0, and t-16:1n-7, although with broader confidence intervals that only achieved statistical significance for 17:0. In 2 prospective cohorts, higher plasma dairy fatty acid concentrations were associated with lower incident diabetes mellitus. Results were similar for erythrocyte 17:0. Our findings highlight the need to better understand the potential health effects of dairy fat, and the dietary and metabolic determinants of these fatty acids. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Long-term prevalence and predictors of urinary incontinence among women in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study.

PubMed

Phelan, Suzanne; Kanaya, Alka M; Ma, Yong; Vittinghoff, Eric; Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth; Wing, Rena; Kusek, John W; Orchard, Trevor J; Crandall, Jill P; Montez, Maria G; Brown, Jeanette S

2015-02-01

To examine the long-term prevalence and predictors of weekly urinary incontinence in the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study, a follow-up study of the Diabetes Prevention Program randomized clinical trial of overweight adults with impaired glucose tolerance. This analysis included 1778 female participants of the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study who had been randomly assigned during the Diabetes Prevention Program to intensive lifestyle intervention (n = 582), metformin (n = 589) or placebo (n = 607). The study participants completed semi-annual assessments after the final Diabetes Prevention Program visit and for 6 years until October 2008. At the study entry, the prevalence of weekly urinary incontinence was lower in the intensive lifestyle intervention group compared with the metformin and placebo groups (44.2% vs 51.8%, 48.0% urinary incontinence/week, P = 0.04); during the 6-year follow-up period, these lower rates in intensive lifestyle intervention were maintained (46.7%, 53.1%, 49.9% urinary incontinence/week; P = 0.03). Statistically adjusting for urinary incontinence prevalence at the end of the Diabetes Prevention Program, the treatment arm no longer had a significant impact on urinary incontinence during the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study. Independent predictors of lower urinary incontinence during the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study included lower body mass index (odds ratio 0.988, 95% confidence interval 0.982-0.994) and greater physical activity (odds ratio 0.999, 95% confidence interval 0.998-1.000) at the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study entry, and greater reductions in body mass index (odds ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.60-0.94) and waist circumference (odds ratio 0.998, 95% confidence interval 0.996-1.0) during the Diabetes Prevention Program Outcomes Study. Diabetes was not significantly related to urinary incontinence. Intensive lifestyle intervention has a modest positive and enduring impact on urinary incontinence, and should be considered for the long-term prevention and treatment of urinary incontinence in overweight/obese women with glucose intolerance. © 2014 The Japanese Urological Association.

Evaluation of methods to estimate lake herring spawner abundance in Lake Superior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Cholwek, G.A.; Evrard, L.M.; Schram, S.; Seider, M.; Symbal, M.

2006-01-01

Historically, commercial fishers harvested Lake Superior lake herring Coregonus artedi for their flesh, but recently operators have targeted lake herring for roe. Because no surveys have estimated spawning female abundance, direct estimates of fishing mortality are lacking. The primary objective of this study was to determine the feasibility of using acoustic techniques in combination with midwater trawling to estimate spawning female lake herring densities in a Lake Superior statistical grid (i.e., a 10′ latitude × 10′ longitude area over which annual commercial harvest statistics are compiled). Midwater trawling showed that mature female lake herring were largely pelagic during the night in late November, accounting for 94.5% of all fish caught exceeding 250 mm total length. When calculating acoustic estimates of mature female lake herring, we excluded backscattering from smaller pelagic fishes like immature lake herring and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax by applying an empirically derived threshold of −35.6 dB. We estimated the average density of mature females in statistical grid 1409 at 13.3 fish/ha and the total number of spawning females at 227,600 (95% confidence interval = 172,500–282,700). Using information on mature female densities, size structure, and fecundity, we estimate that females deposited 3.027 billion (109) eggs in grid 1409 (95% confidence interval = 2.356–3.778 billion). The relative estimation error of the mature female density estimate derived using a geostatistical model—based approach was low (12.3%), suggesting that the employed method was robust. Fishing mortality rates of all mature females and their eggs were estimated at 2.3% and 3.8%, respectively. The techniques described for enumerating spawning female lake herring could be used to develop a more accurate stock–recruitment model for Lake Superior lake herring.

Technological innovation and its effect on public health in the United States

PubMed Central

Gill, Preetinder Singh

2013-01-01

Background Good public health ensures an efficient work force. Organizations can ensure a prominent position on the global stage by staying on the leading edge of technological development. Public health and technological innovation are vital elements of prosperous economies. It is important to understand how these elements affect each other. This research study explored and described the relationship between these two critical elements/constructs. Methods Indicators representing technological innovation and public health were identified. Indicator data from 2000 to 2009 were collected from various US federal government sources, for the four US Census regions. The four US Census regions were then compared in terms of these indicators. Canonical correlation equations were formulated to identify combinations of the indicators that are strongly related to each other. Additionally, the cause–effect relationship between public health and technological innovation was described using the structural equation modeling technique. Results The four US Census regions ranked differently in terms of both type of indicators in a statistically significant manner. The canonical correlation analysis showed that the first set of canonical variables had a fairly strong relationship, with a magnitude > 0.65 at the 95% confidence interval, for all census regions. Structural equation modeling analysis provided β < −0.69 and Student’s t statistic > 12.98, for all census regions. The threshold Student’s t statistic was 1.98. Hence, it was found that the β values were significant at the 95% confidence interval, for all census regions. Discussion The results of the study showed that better technological innovation indicator scores were associated with better public health indicator scores. Furthermore, the study provided preliminary evidence that technological innovation shares causal relation with public health. PMID:23378771

Effect of stage of initial labor dystocia on vaginal birth after cesarean success

PubMed Central

Lewkowitz, Adam Korrick; Nakagawa, Sanae; Thiet, Mari-Paule; Rosenstein, Melissa Greer

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to examine whether the stage of labor dystocia causing a primary cesarean delivery (CD) affects a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) success. STUDY DESIGN This was a retrospective cohort study of women who had primary CD of singleton pregnancies for first- or second-stage labor dystocia and attempted TOLAC at a single hospital between 2002 and 2014. We compared TOLAC success rates between women whose primary CD was for first- vs second-stage labor dystocia and investigated whether the effect of prior dystocia stage on TOLAC success was modified by previous vaginal delivery (VD). RESULTS A total of 238 women were included; nearly half (49%) achieved vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Women with a history of second-stage labor dystocia were more likely to have VBAC compared with those with first-stage dystocia, although this trend was not statistically significant among the general population (55% vs 45%, adjusted odds ratio, 1.4, 95% confidence interval, 0.8–2.5]). However, among women without a prior VD, those with a history of second-stage dystocia did have statistically higher odds of achieving VBAC than those with prior first-stage dystocia (54% vs 38%, adjusted odds ratio, 1.8 [95% confidence interval, 1.0–3.3], P for interaction = .043). CONCLUSION Nearly half of women with a history of primary CD for labor dystocia will achieve VBAC. Women with a history of second-stage labor dystocia have a slightly higher VBAC rate, seen to a statistically significant degree in those without a history of prior VD. TOLAC should be offered to all eligible women and should not be discouraged in women with a prior second-stage arrest. PMID:26348381

Effect of stage of initial labor dystocia on vaginal birth after cesarean success.

PubMed

Lewkowitz, Adam Korrick; Nakagawa, Sanae; Thiet, Mari-Paule; Rosenstein, Melissa Greer

2015-12-01

The objective of the study was to examine whether the stage of labor dystocia causing a primary cesarean delivery (CD) affects a trial of labor after cesarean (TOLAC) success. This was a retrospective cohort study of women who had primary CD of singleton pregnancies for first- or second-stage labor dystocia and attempted TOLAC at a single hospital between 2002 and 2014. We compared TOLAC success rates between women whose primary CD was for first- vs second-stage labor dystocia and investigated whether the effect of prior dystocia stage on TOLAC success was modified by previous vaginal delivery (VD). A total of 238 women were included; nearly half (49%) achieved vaginal birth after cesarean (VBAC). Women with a history of second-stage labor dystocia were more likely to have VBAC compared with those with first-stage dystocia, although this trend was not statistically significant among the general population (55% vs 45%, adjusted odds ratio, 1.4, 95% confidence interval, 0.8-2.5]). However, among women without a prior VD, those with a history of second-stage dystocia did have statistically higher odds of achieving VBAC than those with prior first-stage dystocia (54% vs 38%, adjusted odds ratio, 1.8 [95% confidence interval, 1.0-3.3], P for interaction = .043). Nearly half of women with a history of primary CD for labor dystocia will achieve VBAC. Women with a history of second-stage labor dystocia have a slightly higher VBAC rate, seen to a statistically significant degree in those without a history of prior VD. TOLAC should be offered to all eligible women and should not be discouraged in women with a prior second-stage arrest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cardiovascular outcomes associated with concomitant use of clopidogrel and proton pump inhibitors in patients with acute coronary syndrome in Taiwan

PubMed Central

Lin, Chen-Fang; Shen, Li-Jiuan; Wu, Fe-Lin Lin; Bai, Chyi-Huey; Gau, Churn-Shiouh

2012-01-01

AIMS Our study aimed to examine the impact of concomitant use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) with clopidogrel on the cardiovascular outcomes of patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Furthermore, we sought to quantify the effects of five individual PPIs when used concomitantly with clopidogrel. METHODS We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients who were newly hospitalized for ACS between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2007 retrieved from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) and who were prescribed clopidogrel (n= 37 099) during the follow-up period. A propensity score technique was used to establish a matched cohort in 1:1 ratio (n= 5173 for each group). The primary clinical outcome was rehospitalization for ACS, while secondary outcomes were rehospitalization for percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) with stent, PTCA without stent and revascularization (PTCA or coronary artery bypass graft surgery) after the discharge date for the index ACS event. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratio of rehospitalization for ACS was 1.052 (95% confidence interval, 0.971–1.139; P= 0.214) in the propensity score matched cohort. Among all PPIs, only omeprazole was found to be statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of rehospitalization for ACS (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.226; 95% confidence interval, 1.066–1.410; P= 0.004). Concomitant use of esomeprazole, pantoprazole, rabeprazole and lansoprazole did not increase the risk. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicated no statistically significant increase in the risk of rehospitalization for ACS due to concurrent use of clopidogrel and PPIs overall. Among individual PPIs, only omeprazole was found to be statistically significantly associated with increased risk of rehospitalization for ACS. PMID:22364155

Trends in Mortality After Primary Cytoreductive Surgery for Ovarian Cancer: A Systematic Review and Metaregression of Randomized Clinical Trials and Observational Studies.

PubMed

Di Donato, Violante; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Aletti, Giovanni; Casorelli, Assunta; Piacenti, Ilaria; Bogani, Giorgio; Lecce, Francesca; Benedetti Panici, Pierluigi

2017-06-01

Primary cytoreductive surgery (PDS) followed by platinum-based chemotherapy is the cornerstone of treatment and the absence of residual tumor after PDS is universally considered the most important prognostic factor. The aim of the present analysis was to evaluate trend and predictors of 30-day mortality in patients undergoing primary cytoreduction for ovarian cancer. Literature was searched for records reporting 30-day mortality after PDS. All cohorts were rated for quality. Simple and multiple Poisson regression models were used to quantify the association between 30-day mortality and the following: overall or severe complications, proportion of patients with stage IV disease, median age, year of publication, and weighted surgical complexity index. Using the multiple regression model, we calculated the risk of perioperative mortality at different levels for statistically significant covariates of interest. Simple regression identified median age and proportion of patients with stage IV disease as statistically significant predictors of 30-day mortality. When included in the multiple Poisson regression model, both remained statistically significant, with an incidence rate ratio of 1.087 for median age and 1.017 for stage IV disease. Disease stage was a strong predictor, with the risk estimated to increase from 2.8% (95% confidence interval 2.02-3.66) for stage III to 16.1% (95% confidence interval 6.18-25.93) for stage IV, for a cohort with a median age of 65 years. Metaregression demonstrated that increased age and advanced clinical stage were independently associated with an increased risk of mortality, and the combined effects of both factors greatly increased the risk.

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

PubMed

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Add-On Antihypertensive Medications to Angiotensin-Aldosterone System Blockers in Diabetes: A Comparative Effectiveness Study.

PubMed

Schroeder, Emily B; Chonchol, Michel; Shetterly, Susan M; Powers, J David; Adams, John L; Schmittdiel, Julie A; Nichols, Gregory A; O'Connor, Patrick J; Steiner, John F

2018-05-07

In individuals with diabetes, the comparative effectiveness of add-on antihypertensive medications added to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin II receptor blocker on the risk of significant kidney events is unknown. We used an observational, multicenter cohort of 21,897 individuals with diabetes to compare individuals who added β -blockers, dihydropyridine calcium channel blockers, loop diuretics, or thiazide diuretics to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers. We examined the hazard of significant kidney events, cardiovascular events, and death using Cox proportional hazard models with propensity score weighting. The composite significant kidney event end point was defined as the first occurrence of a ≥30% decline in eGFR to an eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 , initiation of dialysis, or kidney transplant. The composite cardiovascular event end point was defined as the first occurrence of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome, stroke, or congestive heart failure; coronary artery bypass grafting; or percutaneous coronary intervention, and it was only examined in those free of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Over a maximum of 5 years, there were 4707 significant kidney events, 1498 deaths, and 818 cardiovascular events. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios for significant kidney events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 0.81 (95% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.89), 0.67 (95% confidence interval, 0.58 to 0.78), and 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 1.00 to 1.41), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of mortality for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics were 1.19 (95% confidence interval, 0.97 to 1.44), 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.03), and 1.67 (95% confidence interval, 1.31 to 2.13), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, hazard ratios of cardiovascular events for β -blockers, calcium channel blockers, and loop diuretics compared with thiazide diuretics were 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 1.39 to 1.96), 1.05 (95% confidence interval, 0.80 to 1.39), and 1.55 (95% confidence interval, 1.05 to 2.27), respectively. Compared with thiazide diuretics, calcium channel blockers were associated with a lower risk of significant kidney events and a similar risk of cardiovascular events. Copyright © 2018 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Maternal steroid therapy for fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Ciardulli, Andrea; D'Antonio, Francesco; Magro-Malosso, Elena R; Manzoli, Lamberto; Anisman, Paul; Saccone, Gabriele; Berghella, Vincenzo

2018-03-07

To explore the effect of maternal fluorinated steroid therapy on fetuses affected by second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. Studies reporting the outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block diagnosed on prenatal ultrasound and treated with fluorinated steroids compared with those not treated were included. The primary outcome was the overall progression of congenital atrioventricular block to either continuous or intermittent third-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth. Meta-analyses of proportions using random effect model and meta-analyses using individual data random-effect logistic regression were used. Five studies (71 fetuses) were included. The progression rate to congenital atrioventricular block at birth in fetuses treated with steroids was 52% (95% confidence interval 23-79) and in fetuses not receiving steroid therapy 73% (95% confidence interval 39-94). The overall rate of regression to either first-degree, intermittent first-/second-degree or sinus rhythm in fetuses treated with steroids was 25% (95% confidence interval 12-41) compared with 23% (95% confidence interval 8-44) in those not treated. Stable (constant) second-degree congenital atrioventricular block at birth was present in 11% (95% confidence interval 2-27) of cases in the treated group and in none of the newborns in the untreated group, whereas complete regression to sinus rhythm occurred in 21% (95% confidence interval 6-42) of fetuses receiving steroids vs. 9% (95% confidence interval 0-41) of those untreated. There is still limited evidence as to the benefit of administered fluorinated steroids in terms of affecting outcome of fetuses with second-degree immune-mediated congenital atrioventricular block. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors is associated with cancer-related death after resection.

PubMed

Roland, Christina L; Starker, Lee F; Kang, Y; Chatterjee, Deyali; Estrella, Jeannelyn; Rashid, Asif; Katz, Matthew H; Aloia, Thomas A; Lee, Jeffrey E; Dasari, Arvind; Yao, James C; Fleming, Jason B

2017-03-01

Gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors have frequent loss of DPC4/SMAD4 expression, a known tumor suppressor. The impact of SMAD4 loss on gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors aggressiveness or cancer-related patient outcomes is not defined. We examined the expression of SMAD4 in resected gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors and its impact on oncologic outcomes. Patients who underwent complete curative operative resection of gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were identified retrospectively (n = 38). Immunohistochemical staining for SMAD4 expression was scored by a blinded pathologist and correlated with clinicopathologic features and oncologic outcomes. Twenty-nine percent of the gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors were SMAD4-negative and 71% SMAD4-positive. Median overall survival was 155 months (95% confidence interval, 102-208 months). Loss of SMAD4 was associated with both decreased median disease-free survival (28 months; 95% confidence interval, 16-40) months compared with 223 months (95% confidence interval, 3-443 months) for SMAD4-positive patients (P = .03) and decreased median disease-specific survival (SMAD4: 137 [95% confidence interval, 81-194] months versus SMAD4-positive: 204 [95% confidence interval, 143-264] months; P = .04). This translated into a decrease in median overall survival (SMAD4-negative: 125 (95% confidence interval, 51-214) months versus SMAD4-positive: 185 (95% confidence interval, 138-232) months; P = .02). Consistent with the known biology of the DPC4/SMAD4 gene, an absence of its protein expression in primary gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors was negatively associated with outcomes after curative operative resection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Calculation of the confidence intervals for transformation parameters in the registration of medical images

PubMed Central

Bansal, Ravi; Staib, Lawrence H.; Laine, Andrew F.; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Jun; Posecion, Lainie F.; Peterson, Bradley S.

2010-01-01

Images from different individuals typically cannot be registered precisely because anatomical features within the images differ across the people imaged and because the current methods for image registration have inherent technological limitations that interfere with perfect registration. Quantifying the inevitable error in image registration is therefore of crucial importance in assessing the effects that image misregistration may have on subsequent analyses in an imaging study. We have developed a mathematical framework for quantifying errors in registration by computing the confidence intervals of the estimated parameters (3 translations, 3 rotations, and 1 global scale) for the similarity transformation. The presence of noise in images and the variability in anatomy across individuals ensures that estimated registration parameters are always random variables. We assume a functional relation among intensities across voxels in the images, and we use the theory of nonlinear, least-squares estimation to show that the parameters are multivariate Gaussian distributed. We then use the covariance matrix of this distribution to compute the confidence intervals of the transformation parameters. These confidence intervals provide a quantitative assessment of the registration error across the images. Because transformation parameters are nonlinearly related to the coordinates of landmark points in the brain, we subsequently show that the coordinates of those landmark points are also multivariate Gaussian distributed. Using these distributions, we then compute the confidence intervals of the coordinates for landmark points in the image. Each of these confidence intervals in turn provides a quantitative assessment of the registration error at a particular landmark point. Because our method is computationally intensive, however, its current implementation is limited to assessing the error of the parameters in the similarity transformation across images. We assessed the performance of our method in computing the error in estimated similarity parameters by applying that method to real world dataset. Our results showed that the size of the confidence intervals computed using our method decreased – i.e. our confidence in the registration of images from different individuals increased – for increasing amounts of blur in the images. Moreover, the size of the confidence intervals increased for increasing amounts of noise, misregistration, and differing anatomy. Thus, our method precisely quantified confidence in the registration of images that contain varying amounts of misregistration and varying anatomy across individuals. PMID:19138877

Reliability of the identification of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children.

PubMed

Juskewitch, Justin E; Prasad, Swati; Salas, Carlos F Santillan; Huskins, W Charles

2012-01-01

To assess interobserver reliability of the identification of episodes of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill hospitalized infants and children. Retrospective, cross-sectional study of the application of the 2005 consensus definition of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in infants and children by two independent, trained reviewers using information in the electronic medical record. Eighteen-bed pediatric multidisciplinary medical/surgical pediatric intensive care unit. A randomly selected sample of children admitted consecutively to the pediatric intensive care unit between May 1 and September 30, 2009. None. Sixty infants and children were selected from a total of 343 admitted patients. Their median age was 3.9 yrs (interquartile range, 1.5-12.7), 57% were female, and 68% were Caucasian. Nineteen (32%) children were identified by both reviewers as having an episode of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (88% agreement, 95% confidence interval 78-94; κ = 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.59-0.92). Among these 19 children, agreement between the reviewers for individual systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria was: temperature (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); white blood cell count (89%, 95% confidence interval 67-99); respiratory rate (84%, 95% confidence interval 60-97); and heart rate (68%, 95% confidence interval 33-87). Episodes of systemic inflammatory response syndrome in critically ill infants and children can be identified reproducibly using the consensus definition.

What was different about exposures reported by male Australian Gulf War veterans for the 1991 Persian Gulf War, compared with exposures reported for other deployments?

PubMed

Glass, Deborah C; Sim, Malcolm R; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jill F; McKenzie, Dean; Forbes, Andrew; Ittak, Peter

2006-07-01

This study identified chemical and environmental exposures specifically associated with the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Exposures were self-reported in a postal questionnaire, in the period of 2000-2002, by 1,424 Australian male Persian Gulf War veterans in relation to their 1991 Persian Gulf War deployment and by 625 Persian Gulf War veterans and 514 members of a military comparison group in relation to other active deployments. Six of 28 investigated exposures were experienced more frequently during the Persian Gulf War than during other deployments; these were exposure to smoke (odds ratio [OR], 4.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.0-6.6), exposure to dust (OR, 3.7; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-5.3), exposure to chemical warfare agents (OR, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-7.9), use of respiratory protective equipment (OR, 13.6; 95% confidence interval, 7.6-26.8), use of nuclear, chemical, and biological protective suits (OR, 8.9; 95% confidence interval, 5.4-15.4), and entering/inspecting enemy equipment (OR, 3.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-4.8). Other chemical and environmental exposures were not specific to the Persian Gulf War deployment but were also reported in relation to other deployments. The number of exposures reported was related to service type and number of deployments but not to age or rank.

Statin therapy in lower limb peripheral arterial disease: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Antoniou, George A; Fisher, Robert K; Georgiadis, George S; Antoniou, Stavros A; Torella, Francesco

2014-11-01

To investigate and analyse the existing evidence supporting statin therapy in patients with lower limb atherosclerotic arterial disease. A systematic search of electronic information sources was undertaken to identify studies comparing cardiovascular outcomes in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease treated with a statin and those not receiving a statin. Estimates were combined applying fixed- or random-effects models. Twelve observational cohort studies and two randomised trials reporting 19,368 patients were selected. Statin therapy was associated with reduced all-cause mortality (odds ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.46-0.78) and incidence of stroke (odds ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.89). A trend towards improved cardiovascular mortality (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.35-1.11), myocardial infarction (odds ratio 0.62, 95% confidence interval 0.38-1.01), and the composite of death/myocardial infarction/stroke (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.81-1.03), was identified. Meta-analyses of studies performing adjustments showed decreased all-cause mortality in statin users (hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.68-0.86). Evidence supporting statins' protective role in patients with lower limb peripheral arterial disease is insufficient. Statin therapy seems to be effective in reducing all-cause mortality and the incidence cerebrovascular events in patients diagnosed with peripheral arterial disease. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

What is the effect of surgery on the quality of life of the adolescent with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis? A review and statistical analysis of the literature.

PubMed

Rushton, Paul R P; Grevitt, Michael P

2013-04-20

Review and statistical analysis of studies evaluating the effect of surgery on the health-related quality of life of adolescents with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis, using Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) outcomes. Apply published minimum clinical important differences (MCID) values for the SRS22r questionnaire to the literature to identify what areas of health-related quality of life are consistently affected by surgery and whether changes are clinically meaningful. The interpretation of published studies using the SRS outcomes has been limited by the lack of MCID values for the questionnaire domains. The recent publication of these data allows the clinical importance of any changes in these studies to be examined for the first time. A literature search was undertaken to locate suitable studies that were then analyzed. Statistically significant differences from baseline to 2 years postoperatively were ascertained by narratively reporting the analyses within included studies. When possible, clinically significant changes were assessed using 95% confidence intervals for the change in mean domain score. If the lower bound of the confidence intervals for the change exceeded the MCID for that domain, the change was considered clinically significant. The numbers of cohorts available for the different analyses varied (5-16). Eighty-one percent and 94% of included cohorts experienced statistically significant improvements in pain and self-image domains. In terms of clinical significance, it was only self-image that regularly improved by more than MCID, doing so in 4 of 5 included cohorts (80%) compared with 1 of 12 cohorts (8%) for pain. No clinically relevant changes occurred in mental health or activity domains. Evidence suggests that surgery can lead to clinically important improvement in patient self-image. Surgeons and patients should be aware of the limited evidence for improvements in domains other than self-image after surgery. Surgical decision-making will also be influenced by the natural history of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Measurement Error. Potential Effect on Clinical Study Results

PubMed Central

Cooke, Colin R.; Iwashyna, Theodore J.; Hofer, Timothy P.

2016-01-01

Rationale: Identifying patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a recognized challenge. Experts often have only moderate agreement when applying the clinical definition of ARDS to patients. However, no study has fully examined the implications of low reliability measurement of ARDS on clinical studies. Objectives: To investigate how the degree of variability in ARDS measurement commonly reported in clinical studies affects study power, the accuracy of treatment effect estimates, and the measured strength of risk factor associations. Methods: We examined the effect of ARDS measurement error in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of ARDS-specific treatments and cohort studies using simulations. We varied the reliability of ARDS diagnosis, quantified as the interobserver reliability (κ-statistic) between two reviewers. In RCT simulations, patients identified as having ARDS were enrolled, and when measurement error was present, patients without ARDS could be enrolled. In cohort studies, risk factors as potential predictors were analyzed using reviewer-identified ARDS as the outcome variable. Measurements and Main Results: Lower reliability measurement of ARDS during patient enrollment in RCTs seriously degraded study power. Holding effect size constant, the sample size necessary to attain adequate statistical power increased by more than 50% as reliability declined, although the result was sensitive to ARDS prevalence. In a 1,400-patient clinical trial, the sample size necessary to maintain similar statistical power increased to over 1,900 when reliability declined from perfect to substantial (κ = 0.72). Lower reliability measurement diminished the apparent effectiveness of an ARDS-specific treatment from a 15.2% (95% confidence interval, 9.4–20.9%) absolute risk reduction in mortality to 10.9% (95% confidence interval, 4.7–16.2%) when reliability declined to moderate (κ = 0.51). In cohort studies, the effect on risk factor associations was similar. Conclusions: ARDS measurement error can seriously degrade statistical power and effect size estimates of clinical studies. The reliability of ARDS measurement warrants careful attention in future ARDS clinical studies. PMID:27159648

Digital PCR on a SlipChip.

PubMed

Shen, Feng; Du, Wenbin; Kreutz, Jason E; Fok, Alice; Ismagilov, Rustem F

2010-10-21

This paper describes a SlipChip to perform digital PCR in a very simple and inexpensive format. The fluidic path for introducing the sample combined with the PCR mixture was formed using elongated wells in the two plates of the SlipChip designed to overlap during sample loading. This fluidic path was broken up by simple slipping of the two plates that removed the overlap among wells and brought each well in contact with a reservoir preloaded with oil to generate 1280 reaction compartments (2.6 nL each) simultaneously. After thermal cycling, end-point fluorescence intensity was used to detect the presence of nucleic acid. Digital PCR on the SlipChip was tested quantitatively by using Staphylococcus aureus genomic DNA. As the concentration of the template DNA in the reaction mixture was diluted, the fraction of positive wells decreased as expected from the statistical analysis. No cross-contamination was observed during the experiments. At the extremes of the dynamic range of digital PCR the standard confidence interval determined using a normal approximation of the binomial distribution is not satisfactory. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the score method was used to establish these confidence intervals. The SlipChip provides a simple strategy to count nucleic acids by using PCR. It may find applications in research applications such as single cell analysis, prenatal diagnostics, and point-of-care diagnostics. SlipChip would become valuable for diagnostics, including applications in resource-limited areas after integration with isothermal nucleic acid amplification technologies and visual readout.

Allergies and risk of pancreatic cancer: a pooled analysis from the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium.

PubMed

Olson, Sara H; Hsu, Meier; Satagopan, Jaya M; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Silverman, Debra T; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Anderson, Kristin E; Borgida, Ayelet; Bracci, Paige M; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Cotterchio, Michelle; Dai, Qi; Duell, Eric J; Fontham, Elizabeth H; Gallinger, Steven; Holly, Elizabeth A; Ji, Bu-Tian; Kurtz, Robert C; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lowenfels, Albert B; Luckett, Brian; Ludwig, Emmy; Petersen, Gloria M; Polesel, Jerry; Seminara, Daniela; Strayer, Lori; Talamini, Renato

2013-09-01

In order to quantify the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with history of any allergy and specific allergies, to investigate differences in the association with risk according to age, gender, smoking status, or body mass index, and to study the influence of age at onset, we pooled data from 10 case-control studies. In total, there were 3,567 cases and 9,145 controls. Study-specific odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, smoking status, and body mass index. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed by using the Cochran Q statistic. Study-specific odds ratios were pooled by using a random-effects model. The odds ratio for any allergy was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 1.00) with heterogeneity among studies (P < 0.001). Heterogeneity was attributable to one study; with that study excluded, the pooled odds ratio was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.84) (Pheterogeneity = 0.23). Hay fever (odds ratio = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.96) and allergy to animals (odds ratio = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.94) were related to lower risk, while there was no statistically significant association with other allergies or asthma. There were no major differences among subgroups defined by age, gender, smoking status, or body mass index. Older age at onset of allergies was slightly more protective than earlier age.

Allergies and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer: A Pooled Analysis From the Pancreatic Cancer Case-Control Consortium

PubMed Central

Olson, Sara H.; Hsu, Meier; Satagopan, Jaya M.; Maisonneuve, Patrick; Silverman, Debra T.; Lucenteforte, Ersilia; Anderson, Kristin E.; Borgida, Ayelet; Bracci, Paige M.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H. Bas; Cotterchio, Michelle; Dai, Qi; Duell, Eric J.; Fontham, Elizabeth H.; Gallinger, Steven; Holly, Elizabeth A.; Ji, Bu-Tian; Kurtz, Robert C.; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lowenfels, Albert B.; Luckett, Brian; Ludwig, Emmy; Petersen, Gloria M.; Polesel, Jerry; Seminara, Daniela; Strayer, Lori; Talamini, Renato

2013-01-01

In order to quantify the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with history of any allergy and specific allergies, to investigate differences in the association with risk according to age, gender, smoking status, or body mass index, and to study the influence of age at onset, we pooled data from 10 case-control studies. In total, there were 3,567 cases and 9,145 controls. Study-specific odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, smoking status, and body mass index. Between-study heterogeneity was assessed by using the Cochran Q statistic. Study-specific odds ratios were pooled by using a random-effects model. The odds ratio for any allergy was 0.79 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.62, 1.00) with heterogeneity among studies (P < 0.001). Heterogeneity was attributable to one study; with that study excluded, the pooled odds ratio was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.84) (Pheterogeneity = 0.23). Hay fever (odds ratio = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.96) and allergy to animals (odds ratio = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.41, 0.94) were related to lower risk, while there was no statistically significant association with other allergies or asthma. There were no major differences among subgroups defined by age, gender, smoking status, or body mass index. Older age at onset of allergies was slightly more protective than earlier age. PMID:23820785

Cancer mortality in Minamata disease patients exposed to methylmercury through fish diet.

PubMed

Kinjo, Y; Akiba, S; Yamaguchi, N; Mizuno, S; Watanabe, S; Wakamiya, J; Futatsuka, M; Kato, H

1996-09-01

We report here a historical cohort study on cancer mortality among Minamata disease (MD) patients (n = 1,351) in Kagoshima and Kumamoto Prefectures of Japan. Taking into account their living area, sex, age and fish eating habits, the residents (n = 5,667; 40 years of age or over at 1966) living in coastal areas of Kagoshima, who consumed fish daily, were selected as a reference group from the six-prefecture cohort study conducted by Hirayama et al. The observation periods of the MD patients and of the reference group were from 1973 to 1984 and from 1970 to 1981, respectively. Survival analysis using the Poisson regression model was applied for comparison of mortality between the MD patients and the reference group. No excess of relative risk (RR) adjusted for attained age, sex and follow-up period was observed for mortality from all causes, all cancers, and non-cancers combined. Analysis of site-specific cancers showed a statistically significant decrease in mortality from stomach cancer among MD patients (RR, 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.26-0.94). In addition, a statistically significant eight-fold excess risk, based on 5 observed deaths, was noted for mortality from leukemia (RR, 8.35; 95 % confidence interval 1.61-43.3). It is, however, unlikely for these observed risks to be derived from methylmercury exposure only. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms involved in the observed risks among MD patients.

Hearing Outcomes After Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Unilateral Intracanalicular Vestibular Schwannomas: Implication of Transient Volume Expansion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Young-Hoon; Department of Neurosurgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul; Kim, Dong Gyu, E-mail: gknife@plaza.snu.ac.kr

2013-01-01

Purpose: We evaluated the prognostic factors for hearing outcomes after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) for unilateral sporadic intracanalicular vestibular schwannomas (IC-VSs) as a clinical homogeneous group of VSs. Methods and Materials: Sixty consecutive patients with unilateral sporadic IC-VSs, defined as tumors in the internal acoustic canal, and serviceable hearing (Gardner-Roberson grade 1 or 2) were treated with SRS as an initial treatment. The mean tumor volume was 0.34 {+-} 0.03 cm{sup 3} (range, 0.03-1.00 cm{sup 3}), and the mean marginal dose was 12.2 {+-} 0.1 Gy (range, 11.5-13.0 Gy). The median follow-up duration was 62 months (range, 36-141 months). Results: Themore » actuarial rates of serviceable hearing preservation were 70%, 63%, and 55% at 1, 2, and 5 years after SRS, respectively. In multivariate analysis, transient volume expansion of {>=}20% from initial tumor size was a statistically significant risk factor for loss of serviceable hearing and hearing deterioration (increase of pure tone average {>=}20 dB) (odds ratio = 7.638; 95% confidence interval, 2.317-25.181; P=.001 and odds ratio = 3.507; 95% confidence interval, 1.228-10.018; P=.019, respectively). The cochlear radiation dose did not reach statistical significance. Conclusions: Transient volume expansion after SRS for VSs seems to be correlated with hearing deterioration when defined properly in a clinically homogeneous group of patients.« less

Multiple imputation methods for bivariate outcomes in cluster randomised trials.

PubMed

DiazOrdaz, K; Kenward, M G; Gomes, M; Grieve, R

2016-09-10

Missing observations are common in cluster randomised trials. The problem is exacerbated when modelling bivariate outcomes jointly, as the proportion of complete cases is often considerably smaller than the proportion having either of the outcomes fully observed. Approaches taken to handling such missing data include the following: complete case analysis, single-level multiple imputation that ignores the clustering, multiple imputation with a fixed effect for each cluster and multilevel multiple imputation. We contrasted the alternative approaches to handling missing data in a cost-effectiveness analysis that uses data from a cluster randomised trial to evaluate an exercise intervention for care home residents. We then conducted a simulation study to assess the performance of these approaches on bivariate continuous outcomes, in terms of confidence interval coverage and empirical bias in the estimated treatment effects. Missing-at-random clustered data scenarios were simulated following a full-factorial design. Across all the missing data mechanisms considered, the multiple imputation methods provided estimators with negligible bias, while complete case analysis resulted in biased treatment effect estimates in scenarios where the randomised treatment arm was associated with missingness. Confidence interval coverage was generally in excess of nominal levels (up to 99.8%) following fixed-effects multiple imputation and too low following single-level multiple imputation. Multilevel multiple imputation led to coverage levels of approximately 95% throughout. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Novel forecasting approaches using combination of machine learning and statistical models for flood susceptibility mapping.

PubMed

Shafizadeh-Moghadam, Hossein; Valavi, Roozbeh; Shahabi, Himan; Chapi, Kamran; Shirzadi, Ataollah

2018-07-01

In this research, eight individual machine learning and statistical models are implemented and compared, and based on their results, seven ensemble models for flood susceptibility assessment are introduced. The individual models included artificial neural networks, classification and regression trees, flexible discriminant analysis, generalized linear model, generalized additive model, boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy, and the ensemble models were Ensemble Model committee averaging (EMca), Ensemble Model confidence interval Inferior (EMciInf), Ensemble Model confidence interval Superior (EMciSup), Ensemble Model to estimate the coefficient of variation (EMcv), Ensemble Model to estimate the mean (EMmean), Ensemble Model to estimate the median (EMmedian), and Ensemble Model based on weighted mean (EMwmean). The data set covered 201 flood events in the Haraz watershed (Mazandaran province in Iran) and 10,000 randomly selected non-occurrence points. Among the individual models, the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (AUROC), which showed the highest value, belonged to boosted regression trees (0.975) and the lowest value was recorded for generalized linear model (0.642). On the other hand, the proposed EMmedian resulted in the highest accuracy (0.976) among all models. In spite of the outstanding performance of some models, nevertheless, variability among the prediction of individual models was considerable. Therefore, to reduce uncertainty, creating more generalizable, more stable, and less sensitive models, ensemble forecasting approaches and in particular the EMmedian is recommended for flood susceptibility assessment. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Are congenital malformations more frequent in fetuses with intrahepatic persistent right umbilical vein? A comparative study.

PubMed

Adiego-Calvo, Ignacio; Saviron-Cornudella, Ricardo; Martinez-Payo, Cristina; Rubio-Aranda, Encarna; Sancho-Sauco, Javier; Cisneros-Gimeno, Ana Isabel; Perez-Perez, Pilar; Lerma-Puertas, Diego; Whyte-Orozco, Jaime

2016-12-01

Persistent right umbilical vein (PRUV) is a vascular anomaly where the right umbilical vein remains as the only conduit that returns oxygenated blood to the fetus. It has classically been described as associated with numerous defects. We distinguish the intrahepatic variant (better prognosis) and the extrahepatic variant (associated with worse prognosis). The objective of this study was to compare rates of congenital malformations in fetuses with intrahepatic PRUV (I-PRUV) versus singleton pregnancies without risk factors. A multicenter, crossover design, comparative study was performed between 2003 and 2013 on fetuses diagnosed with I-PRUV (n=56), and singleton pregnancies without congenital malformation risk factors (n=4050). Fifty-six cases of I-PRUV were diagnosed (incidence 1:770). A statistically significant association between I-PRUV and the presence of congenital malformations (odds ratio 4.321; 95% confidence interval 2.15-8.69) was found. This positive association was only observed with genitourinary malformations (odds ratio 3.038; 95% confidence interval 1.08-8.56). Our rate of malformations associated with I-PRUV (17.9%) is similar to previously published rates. I-PRUV has shown a significant increase in the rate of associated malformations, although this association has only been found to be statistically significant in the genitourinary system. Noteworthy is the fact that this comparative study has not pointed to a significant increase in the congenital heart malformation rate. Diagnosis of isolated I-PRUV does not carry a worse prognosis. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Experimental design, power and sample size for animal reproduction experiments.

PubMed

Chapman, Phillip L; Seidel, George E

2008-01-01

The present paper concerns statistical issues in the design of animal reproduction experiments, with emphasis on the problems of sample size determination and power calculations. We include examples and non-technical discussions aimed at helping researchers avoid serious errors that may invalidate or seriously impair the validity of conclusions from experiments. Screen shots from interactive power calculation programs and basic SAS power calculation programs are presented to aid in understanding statistical power and computing power in some common experimental situations. Practical issues that are common to most statistical design problems are briefly discussed. These include one-sided hypothesis tests, power level criteria, equality of within-group variances, transformations of response variables to achieve variance equality, optimal specification of treatment group sizes, 'post hoc' power analysis and arguments for the increased use of confidence intervals in place of hypothesis tests.

Expression of Proteins Involved in Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition as Predictors of Metastasis and Survival in Breast Cancer Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Ptrend 0.78 0.62 0.75 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of node...Ptrend 0.71 0.67 Unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for risk of high-grade tumors... logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each of the seven SNPs and

Laharz_py: GIS tools for automated mapping of lahar inundation hazard zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schilling, Steve P.

2014-01-01

Laharz_py is written in the Python programming language as a suite of tools for use in ArcMap Geographic Information System (GIS). Primarily, Laharz_py is a computational model that uses statistical descriptions of areas inundated by past mass-flow events to forecast areas likely to be inundated by hypothetical future events. The forecasts use physically motivated and statistically calibrated power-law equations that each has a form A = cV2/3, relating mass-flow volume (V) to planimetric or cross-sectional areas (A) inundated by an average flow as it descends a given drainage. Calibration of the equations utilizes logarithmic transformation and linear regression to determine the best-fit values of c. The software uses values of V, an algorithm for idenitifying mass-flow source locations, and digital elevation models of topography to portray forecast hazard zones for lahars, debris flows, or rock avalanches on maps. Laharz_py offers two methods to construct areas of potential inundation for lahars: (1) Selection of a range of plausible V values results in a set of nested hazard zones showing areas likely to be inundated by a range of hypothetical flows; and (2) The user selects a single volume and a confidence interval for the prediction. In either case, Laharz_py calculates the mean expected A and B value from each user-selected value of V. However, for the second case, a single value of V yields two additional results representing the upper and lower values of the confidence interval of prediction. Calculation of these two bounding predictions require the statistically calibrated prediction equations, a user-specified level of confidence, and t-distribution statistics to calculate the standard error of regression, standard error of the mean, and standard error of prediction. The portrayal of results from these two methods on maps compares the range of inundation areas due to prediction uncertainties with uncertainties in selection of V values. The Open-File Report document contains an explanation of how to install and use the software. The Laharz_py software includes an example data set for Mount Rainier, Washington. The second part of the documentation describes how to use all of the Laharz_py tools in an example dataset at Mount Rainier, Washington.

Advances in Statistical Methods for Substance Abuse Prevention Research

PubMed Central

MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.

2010-01-01

The paper describes advances in statistical methods for prevention research with a particular focus on substance abuse prevention. Standard analysis methods are extended to the typical research designs and characteristics of the data collected in prevention research. Prevention research often includes longitudinal measurement, clustering of data in units such as schools or clinics, missing data, and categorical as well as continuous outcome variables. Statistical methods to handle these features of prevention data are outlined. Developments in mediation, moderation, and implementation analysis allow for the extraction of more detailed information from a prevention study. Advancements in the interpretation of prevention research results include more widespread calculation of effect size and statistical power, the use of confidence intervals as well as hypothesis testing, detailed causal analysis of research findings, and meta-analysis. The increased availability of statistical software has contributed greatly to the use of new methods in prevention research. It is likely that the Internet will continue to stimulate the development and application of new methods. PMID:12940467

Closed-form confidence intervals for functions of the normal mean and standard deviation.

PubMed

Donner, Allan; Zou, G Y

2012-08-01

Confidence interval methods for a normal mean and standard deviation are well known and simple to apply. However, the same cannot be said for important functions of these parameters. These functions include the normal distribution percentiles, the Bland-Altman limits of agreement, the coefficient of variation and Cohen's effect size. We present a simple approach to this problem by using variance estimates recovered from confidence limits computed for the mean and standard deviation separately. All resulting confidence intervals have closed forms. Simulation results demonstrate that this approach performs very well for limits of agreement, coefficients of variation and their differences.

Assessing equity of healthcare utilization in rural China: results from nationally representative surveys from 1993 to 2008

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The phenomenon of inequitable healthcare utilization in rural China interests policymakers and researchers; however, the inequity has not been actually measured to present the magnitude and trend using nationally representative data. Methods Based on the National Health Service Survey (NHSS) in 1993, 1998, 2003, and 2008, the Probit model with the probability of outpatient visit and the probability of inpatient visit as the dependent variables is applied to estimate need-predicted healthcare utilization. Furthermore, need-standardized healthcare utilization is assessed through indirect standardization method. Concentration index is measured to reflect income-related inequity of healthcare utilization. Results The concentration index of need-standardized outpatient utilization is 0.0486[95% confidence interval (0.0399, 0.0574)], 0.0310[95% confidence interval (0.0229, 0.0390)], 0.0167[95% confidence interval (0.0069, 0.0264)] and −0.0108[95% confidence interval (−0.0213, -0.0004)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. For inpatient service, the concentration index is 0.0529[95% confidence interval (0.0349, 0.0709)], 0.1543[95% confidence interval (0.1356, 0.1730)], 0.2325[95% confidence interval (0.2132, 0.2518)] and 0.1313[95% confidence interval (0.1174, 0.1451)] in 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008, respectively. Conclusions Utilization of both outpatient and inpatient services was pro-rich in rural China with the exception of outpatient service in 2008. With the same needs for healthcare, rich rural residents utilized more healthcare service than poor rural residents. Compared to utilization of outpatient service, utilization of inpatient service was more inequitable. Inequity of utilization of outpatient service reduced gradually from 1993 to 2008; meanwhile, inequity of inpatient service utilization increased dramatically from 1993 to 2003 and decreased significantly from 2003 to 2008. Recent attempts in China to increase coverage of insurance and primary healthcare could be a contributing factor to counteract the inequity of outpatient utilization, but better benefit packages and delivery strategies still need to be tested and scaled up to reduce future inequity in inpatient utilization in rural China. PMID:23688260

Exposure to power frequency electric fields and the risk of childhood cancer in the UK

PubMed Central

Skinner, J; Mee, T J; Blackwell, R P; Maslanyj, M P; Simpson, J; Allen, S G; Day, N E

2002-01-01

The United Kingdom Childhood Cancer Study, a population-based case–control study covering the whole of Great Britain, incorporated a pilot study measuring electric fields. Measurements were made in the homes of 473 children who were diagnosed with a malignant neoplasm between 1992 and 1996 and who were aged 0–14 at diagnosis, together with 453 controls matched on age, sex and geographical location. Exposure assessments comprised resultant spot measurements in the child's bedroom and the family living-room. Temporal stability of bedroom fields was investigated through continuous logging of the 48-h vertical component at the child's bedside supported by repeat spot measurements. The principal exposure metric used was the mean of the pillow and bed centre measurements. For the 273 cases and 276 controls with fully validated measures, comparing those with a measured electric field exposure ⩾20 V m−1 to those in a reference category of exposure <10 V m−1, odds ratios of 1.31 (95% confidence interval 0.68–2.54) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.73–2.39) for total leukaemia, 2.12 (95% confidence interval 0.78–5.78) for central nervous system cancers and 1.26 (95% confidence interval 0.77–2.07) for all malignancies were obtained. When considering the 426 cases and 419 controls with no invalid measures, the corresponding odds ratios were 0.86 (95% confidence interval 0.49–1.51) for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.56–1.54) for total leukaemia, 1.43 (95% confidence interval 0.68–3.02) for central nervous system cancers and 0.90 (95% confidence interval 0.59–1.35) for all malignancies. With exposure modelled as a continuous variable, odds ratios for an increase in the principal metric of 10 V m−1 were close to unity for all disease categories, never differing significantly from one. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 87, 1257–1266. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6600602 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK PMID:12439715

An experiment on the impact of a neonicotinoid pesticide on honeybees: the value of a formal analysis of the data.

PubMed

Schick, Robert S; Greenwood, Jeremy J D; Buckland, Stephen T

2017-01-01

We assess the analysis of the data resulting from a field experiment conducted by Pilling et al. (PLoS ONE. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077193, 5) on the potential effects of thiamethoxam on honeybees. The experiment had low levels of replication, so Pilling et al. concluded that formal statistical analysis would be misleading. This would be true if such an analysis merely comprised tests of statistical significance and if the investigators concluded that lack of significance meant little or no effect. However, an analysis that includes estimation of the size of any effects-with confidence limits-allows one to reach conclusions that are not misleading and that produce useful insights. For the data of Pilling et al., we use straightforward statistical analysis to show that the confidence limits are generally so wide that any effects of thiamethoxam could have been large without being statistically significant. Instead of formal analysis, Pilling et al. simply inspected the data and concluded that they provided no evidence of detrimental effects and from this that thiamethoxam poses a "low risk" to bees. Conclusions derived from the inspection of the data were not just misleading in this case but also are unacceptable in principle, for if data are inadequate for a formal analysis (or only good enough to provide estimates with wide confidence intervals), then they are bound to be inadequate as a basis for reaching any sound conclusions. Given that the data in this case are largely uninformative with respect to the treatment effect, any conclusions reached from such informal approaches can do little more than reflect the prior beliefs of those involved.

Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing.

PubMed

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be of utility in highlighting different aspects of the problem, merely reapplying different tests to the same issue in the hope of finding a P < 0.05 is a wrong use of statistics. Finally, it is becoming the norm that an estimate of the size of any effect, expressed with its 95% confidence interval, is required for meaningful interpretation of results. A large study is likely to have a small (and therefore "statistically significant") P value, but a "real" estimate of the effect would be provided by the 95% confidence interval. If the intervals overlap between two interventions, then the difference between them is not so clear-cut even if P < 0.05. The two approaches are now considered complementary to one another.

Biostatistics Series Module 2: Overview of Hypothesis Testing

PubMed Central

Hazra, Avijit; Gogtay, Nithya

2016-01-01

Hypothesis testing (or statistical inference) is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis. Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis. The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is < 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed. The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables (e.g., numerical vs. categorical; parametric vs. nonparametric) and the number of groups or data sets being compared (e.g., two or more than two) at a time. The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. While this may be of utility in highlighting different aspects of the problem, merely reapplying different tests to the same issue in the hope of finding a P < 0.05 is a wrong use of statistics. Finally, it is becoming the norm that an estimate of the size of any effect, expressed with its 95% confidence interval, is required for meaningful interpretation of results. A large study is likely to have a small (and therefore “statistically significant”) P value, but a “real” estimate of the effect would be provided by the 95% confidence interval. If the intervals overlap between two interventions, then the difference between them is not so clear-cut even if P < 0.05. The two approaches are now considered complementary to one another. PMID:27057011

Occurrence of Phlebitis: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Wen P; Peng, Yu X

Peripheral venous catheters (PVCs) are commonly used in clinical practice. However, varying degrees of phlebitis often occur in patients receiving intravenous injections. The relevant literature suggests that phlebitis occurrence is highly associated with the catheter gauge, insertion site, and catheterization duration. Nevertheless, no meta-analysis has been performed on the influence of these three factors on the occurrence of phlebitis. The objective of this study was to determine whether any significant differences exist in the occurrence of phlebitis between catheters of 20 gauge or smaller and those larger than 20 gauge, between catheters inserted in the antecubital fossa and those inserted in other locations on the upper limbs, or between catheters inserted for more than 96 hours and those inserted for 96 hours or less. Using a systematic approach, we searched for literature published between 2006 and 2017 in the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), PubMed, ProQuest, and Cochrane Library databases. We used Comprehensive Meta-analysis Version 2 to perform our meta-analysis. After the screening and review processes, we identified 17 studies that met our selection conditions. Among these studies, 14 contained complete data for meta-analysis. These studies involved 4,343 patients and 5,846 PVCs. Regarding the overall effect size in the meta-analysis, the results of the forest plot comparing catheters of 20 gauge or smaller and those larger than 20 gauge presented a risk ratio (RR) of 0.88 (95% confidence interval [0.67, 1.17], p = .380), indicating no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of phlebitis between catheters of the aforementioned gauges. The results of the forest plot comparing catheters inserted in the antecubital fossa and those inserted in other locations on the upper limbs presented an RR of 1.05 (95% confidence interval [0.82, 1.34], p = .696), indicating no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of phlebitis between catheters inserted in the aforementioned locations. The results of the forest plot comparing catheters inserted for more than 96 hours and those inserted for 96 hours or less presented an RR of 1.13 (95% confidence interval [0.49, 2.61], p = .779), indicating no statistically significant difference in the occurrence of phlebitis between catheters inserted for the aforementioned durations. The empirical results of this meta-analysis can serve as a reference for hospital management for selecting the PVC gauge, insertion site, and catheterization duration. In addition to the three factors that we analyzed, whether any other factors influence the occurrence of phlebitis in patients with catheter implantation is worth investigating in future research.

How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

2016-12-01

Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

Confidence Intervals for True Scores Using the Skew-Normal Distribution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Perez, Miguel A.

2010-01-01

A recent comparative analysis of alternative interval estimation approaches and procedures has shown that confidence intervals (CIs) for true raw scores determined with the Score method--which uses the normal approximation to the binomial distribution--have actual coverage probabilities that are closest to their nominal level. It has also recently…

The Role of Short-Term Memory Capacity and Task Experience for Overconfidence in Judgment under Uncertainty

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansson, Patrik; Juslin, Peter; Winman, Anders

2008-01-01

Research with general knowledge items demonstrates extreme overconfidence when people estimate confidence intervals for unknown quantities, but close to zero overconfidence when the same intervals are assessed by probability judgment. In 3 experiments, the authors investigated if the overconfidence specific to confidence intervals derives from…

Confidence Intervals for Weighted Composite Scores under the Compound Binomial Error Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Kyung Yong; Lee, Won-Chan

2018-01-01

Reporting confidence intervals with test scores helps test users make important decisions about examinees by providing information about the precision of test scores. Although a variety of estimation procedures based on the binomial error model are available for computing intervals for test scores, these procedures assume that items are randomly…

[Establishment of the mathematic model of total quantum statistical moment standard similarity for application to medical theoretical research].

PubMed

He, Fu-yuan; Deng, Kai-wen; Huang, Sheng; Liu, Wen-long; Shi, Ji-lian

2013-09-01

The paper aims to elucidate and establish a new mathematic model: the total quantum statistical moment standard similarity (TQSMSS) on the base of the original total quantum statistical moment model and to illustrate the application of the model to medical theoretical research. The model was established combined with the statistical moment principle and the normal distribution probability density function properties, then validated and illustrated by the pharmacokinetics of three ingredients in Buyanghuanwu decoction and of three data analytical method for them, and by analysis of chromatographic fingerprint for various extracts with different solubility parameter solvents dissolving the Buyanghanwu-decoction extract. The established model consists of four mainly parameters: (1) total quantum statistical moment similarity as ST, an overlapped area by two normal distribution probability density curves in conversion of the two TQSM parameters; (2) total variability as DT, a confidence limit of standard normal accumulation probability which is equal to the absolute difference value between the two normal accumulation probabilities within integration of their curve nodical; (3) total variable probability as 1-Ss, standard normal distribution probability within interval of D(T); (4) total variable probability (1-beta)alpha and (5) stable confident probability beta(1-alpha): the correct probability to make positive and negative conclusions under confident coefficient alpha. With the model, we had analyzed the TQSMS similarities of pharmacokinetics of three ingredients in Buyanghuanwu decoction and of three data analytical methods for them were at range of 0.3852-0.9875 that illuminated different pharmacokinetic behaviors of each other; and the TQSMS similarities (ST) of chromatographic fingerprint for various extracts with different solubility parameter solvents dissolving Buyanghuanwu-decoction-extract were at range of 0.6842-0.999 2 that showed different constituents with various solvent extracts. The TQSMSS can characterize the sample similarity, by which we can quantitate the correct probability with the test of power under to make positive and negative conclusions no matter the samples come from same population under confident coefficient a or not, by which we can realize an analysis at both macroscopic and microcosmic levels, as an important similar analytical method for medical theoretical research.

Interlaboratory Reproducibility and Proficiency Testing within the Human Papillomavirus Cervical Cancer Screening Program in Catalonia, Spain

PubMed Central

Ibáñez, R.; Félez-Sánchez, M.; Godínez, J. M.; Guardià, C.; Caballero, E.; Juve, R.; Combalia, N.; Bellosillo, B.; Cuevas, D.; Moreno-Crespi, J.; Pons, L.; Autonell, J.; Gutierrez, C.; Ordi, J.; de Sanjosé, S.

2014-01-01

In Catalonia, a screening protocol for cervical cancer, including human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing using the Digene Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) assay, was implemented in 2006. In order to monitor interlaboratory reproducibility, a proficiency testing (PT) survey of the HPV samples was launched in 2008. The aim of this study was to explore the repeatability of the HC2 assay's performance. Participating laboratories provided 20 samples annually, 5 randomly chosen samples from each of the following relative light unit (RLU) intervals: <0.5, 0.5 to 0.99, 1 to 9.99, and ≥10. Kappa statistics were used to determine the agreement levels between the original and the PT readings. The nature and origin of the discrepant results were calculated by bootstrapping. A total of 946 specimens were retested. The kappa values were 0.91 for positive/negative categorical classification and 0.79 for the four RLU intervals studied. Sample retesting yielded systematically lower RLU values than the original test (P < 0.005), independently of the time elapsed between the two determinations (median, 53 days), possibly due to freeze-thaw cycles. The probability for a sample to show clinically discrepant results upon retesting was a function of the RLU value; samples with RLU values in the 0.5 to 5 interval showed 10.80% probability to yield discrepant results (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.86 to 14.33) compared to 0.85% probability for samples outside this interval (95% CI, 0.17 to 1.69). Globally, the HC2 assay shows high interlaboratory concordance. We have identified differential confidence thresholds and suggested the guidelines for interlaboratory PT in the future, as analytical quality assessment of HPV DNA detection remains a central component of the screening program for cervical cancer prevention. PMID:24574284

The effect of BCG vaccine at birth on the development of atopy or allergic disease in young children.

PubMed

Townley, R G; Barlan, I B; Patino, C; Vichyanond, P; Minervini, M C; Simasathien, T; Nettagul, R; Bahceciler, N N; Basdemir, D; Akkoc, T; Pongprueksa, S; Hopp, R J

2004-03-01

Exposure to infectious diseases may reduce the development of asthma or allergy. In particular, the role of the BCG vaccine in modulating asthma or allergy has been a source of speculation. To study newborns from 3 international sites to evaluate the prospective effect of BCG vaccine on allergic diseases or atopic development. Infants were enrolled from newborn and well-infant clinics in Thailand, Argentina, and Turkey. The standard BCG vaccine for each country was given at birth. Parents who consented to have their infant included in the protocol completed an allergy family questionnaire. Infants underwent a standard purified protein derivative (PPD) test at 9 to 12 months of age, and the reaction size was measured. At the age of 2 years, the children returned to be studied. Allergy skin tests to common allergens appropriate to location and age were performed, and the parents completed the International Study of Allergy and Asthma in Childhood questionnaire. The PPD reaction size was compared with the presence of atopy and allergy questionnaire responses. A total of 1,704 infants were studied. Statistical significance was found between a negative PPD response vs any positive PPD response and the risk of having an allergic history at the age of 2 years in Turkey (relative risk, 2.11; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-3.55; P = .005) and Thailand (relative risk, 2.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-3.94; P = .02) but not Argentina (relative risk, 1.09; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-1.68; P = .70). This study further supports the role of infectious agents in modulating asthma and allergy development.

Diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography for glaucoma.

PubMed

Wu, Huijuan; de Boer, Johannes F; Chen, Teresa C

2012-05-01

To determine the diagnostic capability of spectral-domain optical coherence tomography in glaucoma patients with visual field defects. Prospective, cross-sectional study. Participants were recruited from a university hospital clinic. One eye of 85 normal subjects and 61 glaucoma patients with average visual field mean deviation of -9.61 ± 8.76 dB was selected randomly for the study. A subgroup of the glaucoma patients with early visual field defects was calculated separately. Spectralis optical coherence tomography (Heidelberg Engineering, Inc) circular scans were performed to obtain peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thicknesses. The RNFL diagnostic parameters based on the normative database were used alone or in combination for identifying glaucomatous RNFL thinning. To evaluate diagnostic performance, calculations included areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Overall RNFL thickness had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values: 0.952 for all patients and 0.895 for the early glaucoma subgroup. For all patients, the highest sensitivity (98.4%; 95% confidence interval, 96.3% to 100%) was achieved by using 2 criteria: ≥ 1 RNFL sectors being abnormal at the < 5% level and overall classification of borderline or outside normal limits, with specificities of 88.9% (95% confidence interval, 84.0% to 94.0%) and 87.1% (95% confidence interval, 81.6% to 92.5%), respectively, for these 2 criteria. Statistical parameters for evaluating the diagnostic performance of the Spectralis spectral-domain optical coherence tomography were good for early perimetric glaucoma and were excellent for moderately advanced perimetric glaucoma. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Association between Serum β2-Microglobulin Level and Infectious Mortality in Hemodialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Cheung, Alfred K.; Greene, Tom; Leypoldt, John K.; Yan, Guofen; Allon, Michael; Delmez, James; Levey, Andrew S.; Levin, Nathan W.; Rocco, Michael V.; Schulman, Gerald; Eknoyan, Garabed

2008-01-01

Background and objectives: Secondary analysis of the Hemodialysis Study showed that serum β2-microglobulin levels predicted all-cause mortality and that high-flux dialysis was associated with decreased cardiac deaths in hemodialysis patients. This study examined the association of serum β2-microglobulin levels and dialyzer β2-microglobulin kinetics with the two most common causes of deaths: Cardiac and infectious diseases. Cox regression analyses were performed to relate cardiac or infectious deaths to cumulative mean follow-up predialysis serum β2-microglobulin levels while controlling for baseline demographics, comorbidity, residual kidney function, and dialysis-related variables. Results: The cohort of 1813 patients experienced 180 infectious deaths and 315 cardiac deaths. The adjusted hazard ratio for infectious death was 1.21 (95% confidence interval 1.07 to 1.37) per 10-mg/L increase in β2-microglobulin. This association was independent of the prestudy years on dialysis. In contrast, the association between serum β2-microglobulin level and cardiac death was not statistically significant. In similar regression models, higher cumulative mean Kt/V of β2-microglobulin was not significantly associated with either infectious or cardiac mortality in the full cohort but exhibited trends suggesting an association with lower infectious mortality (relative risk 0.93; 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 1.01, for each 0.1-U increase in β2-microglobulin Kt/V) and lower cardiac mortality (relative risk 0.93; 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.00) in the subgroup with >3.7 prestudy years of dialysis. Conclusions: These results generally support the notion that middle molecules are associated with systemic toxicity and that their accumulation predisposes dialysis patients to infectious deaths, independent of the duration of maintenance dialysis. PMID:18057309

Comparison of pediatric cardiac surgical mortality rates from national administrative data to contemporary clinical standards.

PubMed

Welke, Karl F; Diggs, Brian S; Karamlou, Tara; Ungerleider, Ross M

2009-01-01

Despite the superior coding and risk adjustment of clinical data, the ready availability, national scope, and perceived unbiased nature of administrative data make it the choice of governmental agencies and insurance companies for evaluating quality and outcomes. We calculated pediatric cardiac surgery mortality rates from administrative data and compared them with widely quoted standards from clinical databases. Pediatric cardiac surgical operations were retrospectively identified by ICD-9-CM diagnosis and procedure codes from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS) 1988-2005 and the Kids' Inpatient Database (KID) 2003. Cases were grouped into Risk Adjustment for Congenital Heart Surgery, version 1 (RACHS-1) categories. In-hospital mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. A total of 55,164 operations from the NIS and 10,945 operations from the KID were placed into RACHS-1 categories. During the 18-year period, the overall NIS mortality rate for pediatric cardiac surgery decreased from 8.7% (95% confidence interval, 8.0% to 9.3%) to 4.6% (95% confidence interval, 4.3% to 5.0%). Mortality rates by RACHS-1 category decreased significantly as well. The KID and NIS mortality rates from comparable years were similar. Overall mortality rates derived from administrative data were higher than those from contemporary national clinical data, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database, or published data from pediatric cardiac specialty centers. Although category-specific mortality rates were higher in administrative data than in clinical data, a minority of the relationships reached statistical significance. Despite substantial improvement, mortality rates from administrative data remain higher than those from clinical data. The discrepancy may be attributable to several factors: differences in database design and composition, differences in data collection and reporting structures, and variation in data quality.

Maternal use of folic acid supplements and infant risk of neural tube defects in Norway 1999-2013.

PubMed

Gildestad, Trude; Øyen, Nina; Klungsøyr, Kari; Nilsen, Roy Miodini; Daltveit, Anne Kjersti; Vollset, Stein Emil

2016-08-01

Like most European countries, Norway has refrained from mandatory food fortification with folic acid to reduce the number of neural tube defects. We explored the role of folic acid and multivitamin supplements in the prevention of neural tube defects among newborn infants. We used data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway, 1999-2013. A total of 528,220 women had 880,568 pregnancies resulting in 896,674 live- and stillborn infants, of whom 270 had neural tube defects. Relative risks were estimated with log-binomial regression. From 1999 to 2013, intake of folic acid supplements increased from 4.8% to 27.4%. Vitamin supplement use was more frequent in older, married or cohabiting women and those with lower parity, as well as women who did not smoke during pregnancy. The overall adjusted relative risk of infant neural tube defects associated with maternal vitamin intake before pregnancy relative to no intake was 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.53-1.10). When we divided our study period in two (1999-2005 and 2006-2013), we found a significantly reduced risk of neural tube defects overall by vitamin use in the second time period, but not in the first: adjusted relative risk 0.54 (95% confidence interval: 0.31-0.91) and 1.02 (95% confidence interval: 0.63-1.65), respectively. OVER THE FULL STUDY PERIOD, WE FOUND NO STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT ASSOCIATION BETWEEN VITAMIN USE AND NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS OVERALL HOWEVER, VITAMIN USE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RISK OF NEURAL TUBE DEFECTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE STUDY PERIOD, 2006-2013. © 2016 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

A Cohort Study of Thiazolidinediones and Fractures in Older Adults with Diabetes

PubMed Central

Solomon, Daniel H.; Cadarette, Suzanne M.; Choudhry, Niteesh K.; Canning, Claire; Levin, Raisa; Stürmer, Til

2009-01-01

Context: Thiazolidenediones (TZDs) are selective ligands of peroxisome-proliferator-activated receptor-γ and have been shown to reduce bone mineral density. Recent results from several randomized controlled trials find an increased risk of fracture with TZDs compared with other oral antidiabetic agents. Objective: The aim of the study was to determine the association between TZD use and fracture risk among older adults with diabetes. Design: We conducted a cohort study. Participants: Medicare beneficiaries with at least one diagnosis of diabetes initiating monotherapy for an oral hypoglycemic agent participated in the study. Main Outcome: We measured the incidence of fracture within the cohort. Results: Among the 20,964 patients with diabetes eligible for this study, 686 (3.3%) experienced a fracture during the median follow-up of approximately 10 months. Although not statistically significant, patients using only a TZD were more likely to experience a fracture than those using metformin (adjusted relative risk, 1.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.98–1.77; P = 0.071) or a sulfonylurea (adjusted relative risk, 1.21; 95% confidence interval, 0.94–1.55; P = 0.12). Each individual TZD was associated with an increased risk, with confidence intervals overlapping unity, compared with both metformin and sulfonylureas. The adjusted risk of any fracture associated with TZD use compared with metformin was elevated for non-insulin-using patients, women and men. If TZD use is associated with fractures, the number needed for one excess fracture when comparing TZD users to sulfonylurea users was 200, and the number was 111 when comparing TZDs with metformin. Conclusions: As has been found with other analyses, our data suggest that TZDs may be associated with an increased risk of fractures compared with oral sulfonylureas and metformin. PMID:19470635

Determinants of preterm birth rates in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994.

PubMed

Joseph, K S; Kramer, M S; Marcoux, S; Ohlsson, A; Wen, S W; Allen, A; Platt, R

1998-11-12

The rates of preterm birth have increased in many countries, including Canada, over the past 20 years. However, the factors underlying the increase are poorly understood. We used data from the Statistics Canada live-birth and stillbirth data bases to determine the effects of changes in the frequency of multiple births, registration of births occurring very early in gestation, patterns of obstetrical intervention, and use of ultrasonographic dating of gestational age on the rates of preterm birth in Canada from 1981 through 1983 and from 1992 through 1994. All births in 9 of the 12 provinces and territories of Canada were included. Logistic-regression analysis and Poisson regression analysis were used to estimate changes between the two three-year periods, after adjustment for the above-mentioned determinants of the likelihood of preterm births. Preterm births increased from 6.3 percent of live births in 1981 through 1983 to 6.8 percent in 1992 through 1994, a relative increase of 9 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 7 to 10 percent). Among singleton births, preterm births increased by 5 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 3 to 6 percent). Multiple births increased from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent of all live births; the rates of preterm birth among live births resulting from multiple gestations increased by 25 percent (95 percent confidence interval, 21 to 28 percent). Adjustment for the determinants of the likelihood of preterm birth reduced the increase in the rate of preterm birth to 3 percent among all live births and 1 percent among singleton births. The recent increase in preterm births in Canada is largely attributable to changes in the frequency of multiple births, obstetrical intervention, and the use of ultrasound-based estimates of gestational age.

Prognostic utility of novel biomarkers of cardiovascular stress: the Framingham Heart Study.

PubMed

Wang, Thomas J; Wollert, Kai C; Larson, Martin G; Coglianese, Erin; McCabe, Elizabeth L; Cheng, Susan; Ho, Jennifer E; Fradley, Michael G; Ghorbani, Anahita; Xanthakis, Vanessa; Kempf, Tibor; Benjamin, Emelia J; Levy, Daniel; Vasan, Ramachandran S; Januzzi, James L

2012-09-25

Biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular events in community-based populations have not consistently added information to standard risk factors. A limitation of many previously studied biomarkers is their lack of cardiovascular specificity. To determine the prognostic value of 3 novel biomarkers induced by cardiovascular stress, we measured soluble ST2, growth differentiation factor-15, and high-sensitivity troponin I in 3428 participants (mean age, 59 years; 53% women) in the Framingham Heart Study. We performed multivariable-adjusted proportional hazards models to assess the individual and combined ability of the biomarkers to predict adverse outcomes. We also constructed a "multimarker" score composed of the 3 biomarkers in addition to B-type natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein. During a mean follow-up of 11.3 years, there were 488 deaths, 336 major cardiovascular events, 162 heart failure events, and 142 coronary events. In multivariable-adjusted models, the 3 new biomarkers were associated with each end point (P<0.001) except coronary events. Individuals with multimarker scores in the highest quartile had a 3-fold risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-4.7; P<0.001), 6-fold risk of heart failure (6.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.6-14.8; P<0.001), and 2-fold risk of cardiovascular events (1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.7; P=0.001). Addition of the multimarker score to clinical variables led to significant increases in the c statistic (P=0.005 or lower) and net reclassification improvement (P=0.001 or lower). Multiple biomarkers of cardiovascular stress are detectable in ambulatory individuals and add prognostic value to standard risk factors for predicting death, overall cardiovascular events, and heart failure.

Diagnosing delirium in critically ill children: Validity and reliability of the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit*

PubMed Central

Smith, Heidi A. B.; Boyd, Jenny; Fuchs, D. Catherine; Melvin, Kelly; Berry, Pamela; Shintani, Ayumi; Eden, Svetlana K.; Terrell, Michelle K.; Boswell, Tonya; Wolfram, Karen; Sopfe, Jenna; Barr, Frederick E.; Pandharipande, Pratik P.; Ely, E. Wesley

2013-01-01

Objective To validate a diagnostic instrument for pediatric delirium in critically ill children, both ventilated and nonventilated, that uses standardized, developmentally appropriate measurements. Design and Setting A prospective observational cohort study investigating the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit (pCAM-ICU) patients in the pediatric medical, surgical, and cardiac intensive care unit of a university-based medical center. Patients A total of 68 pediatric critically ill patients, at least 5 years of age, were enrolled from July 1, 2008, to March 30, 2009. Interventions None. Measurements Criterion validity including sensitivity and specificity and interrater reliability were determined using daily delirium assessments with the pCAM-ICU by two critical care clinicians compared with delirium diagnosis by pediatric psychiatrists using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th Edition, Text Revision criteria. Results A total of 146 paired assessments were completed among 68 enrolled patients with a mean age of 12.2 yrs. Compared with the reference standard for diagnosing delirium, the pCAM-ICU demonstrated a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 66–93%), a specificity of 99% (95% confidence interval, 95–100%), and a high interrater reliability (κ = 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.74–1.0). Conclusions The pCAM-ICU is a highly valid reliable instrument for the diagnosis of pediatric delirium in critically ill children chronologically and developmentally at least 5 yrs of age. Use of the pCAM-ICU may expedite diagnosis and consultation with neuropsychiatry specialists for treatment of pediatric delirium. In addition, the pCAM-ICU may provide a means for delirium monitoring in future epidemiologic and interventional studies in critically ill children. (Crit Care Med 2011; 39:150–157) PMID:20959783

Substitution of Linoleic Acid for Other Macronutrients and the Risk of Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Venø, Stine K; Schmidt, Erik B; Jakobsen, Marianne U; Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Bach, Flemming W; Overvad, Kim

2017-12-01

Ischemic stroke is a major health problem worldwide, but the influence of dietary factors on stroke risk is not well known. This study aimed to investigate the risk of ischemic stroke and its subtypes with a higher intake from linoleic acid and a concomitant lower intake from saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, or glycemic carbohydrates. In the Danish prospective Diet, Cancer, and Health Study of 57 053 participants aged 50 to 64 years at baseline, information on diet was collected using a validated semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Information on ischemic stroke was obtained from the Danish National Patient Register, and cases were all validated and subclassified according to the TOAST (Trial of ORG 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment) classification. Substitution of linoleic acid for saturated fatty acid, monounsaturated fatty acid, or glycemic carbohydrates was investigated in relation to the risk of ischemic stroke and subtypes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the associations with ischemic stroke adjusting for appropriate confounders. During 13.5 years of follow-up 1879 participants developed ischemic stroke. A slightly lower risk of ischemic stroke was found with a 5% higher intake of linoleic acid and a concomitant lower intake of saturated fatty acid (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.83-1.16), monounsaturated fatty acid (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.63-1.02), and glycemic carbohydrates (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.78-1.09), although not statistically significant. Similar patterns of association were found for large-artery atherosclerosis and small-vessel occlusions. This study suggests that replacing saturated fatty acid, glycemic carbohydrate, or monounsaturated fatty acid with linoleic acid may be associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Importance of Abnormal Chloride Homeostasis in Stable Chronic Heart Failure.

PubMed

Grodin, Justin L; Verbrugge, Frederik H; Ellis, Stephen G; Mullens, Wilfried; Testani, Jeffrey M; Tang, W H Wilson

2016-01-01

The aim of this analysis was to determine the long-term prognostic value of lower serum chloride in patients with stable chronic heart failure. Electrolyte abnormalities are prevalent in patients with chronic heart failure. Little is known regarding the prognostic implications of lower serum chloride. Serum chloride was measured in 1673 consecutively consented stable patients with a history of heart failure undergoing elective diagnostic coronary angiography. All patients were followed for 5-year all-cause mortality, and survival models were adjusted for variables that confounded the chloride-risk relationship. The average chloride level was 102 ± 4 mEq/L. Over 6772 person-years of follow-up, there were 547 deaths. Lower chloride (per standard deviation decrease) was associated with a higher adjusted risk of mortality (hazard ratio 1.29, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.49; P < 0.001). Chloride levels net-reclassified risk in 10.4% (P = 0.03) when added to a multivariable model (with a resultant C-statistic of 0.70), in which sodium levels were not prognostic (P = 0.30). In comparison to those with above first quartile chloride (≥ 101 mEq/L) and sodium (≥ 138 meq/L), subjects with first quartile chloride had a higher adjusted mortality risk, whether they had first quartile sodium (hazard ratio 1.35, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.69; P = 0.008) or higher (hazard ratio 1.43, 95% confidence interval 1.12-1.85; P = 0.005). However, subjects with first quartile sodium but above first quartile chloride had no association with mortality (P = 0.67). Lower serum chloride levels are independently and incrementally associated with increased mortality risk in patients with chronic heart failure. A better understanding of the biological role of serum chloride is warranted. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

The Cost Implications of Less Tight Versus Tight Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy (CHIPS Trial).

PubMed

Ahmed, Rashid J; Gafni, Amiram; Hutton, Eileen K; Hu, Zheng Jing; Pullenayegum, Eleanor; von Dadelszen, Peter; Rey, Evelyne; Ross, Susan; Asztalos, Elizabeth; Murphy, Kellie E; Menzies, Jennifer; Sanchez, J Johanna; Ganzevoort, Wessel; Helewa, Michael; Lee, Shoo K; Lee, Terry; Logan, Alexander G; Moutquin, Jean-Marie; Singer, Joel; Thornton, Jim G; Welch, Ross; Magee, Laura A

2016-10-01

The CHIPS randomized controlled trial (Control of Hypertension in Pregnancy Study) found no difference in the primary perinatal or secondary maternal outcomes between planned "less tight" (target diastolic 100 mm Hg) and "tight" (target diastolic 85 mm Hg) blood pressure management strategies among women with chronic or gestational hypertension. This study examined which of these management strategies is more or less costly from a third-party payer perspective. A total of 981 women with singleton pregnancies and nonsevere, nonproteinuric chronic or gestational hypertension were randomized at 14 to 33 weeks to less tight or tight control. Resources used were collected from 94 centers in 15 countries and costed as if the trial took place in each of 3 Canadian provinces as a cost-sensitivity analysis. Eleven hospital ward and 24 health service costs were obtained from a similar trial and provincial government health insurance schedules of medical benefits. The mean total cost per woman-infant dyad was higher in less tight versus tight control, but the difference in mean total cost (DM) was not statistically significant in any province: Ontario ($30 191.62 versus $24 469.06; DM $5723, 95% confidence interval, -$296 to $12 272; P=0.0725); British Columbia ($30 593.69 versus $24 776.51; DM $5817; 95% confidence interval, -$385 to $12 349; P=0.0725); or Alberta ($31 510.72 versus $25 510.49; DM $6000.23; 95% confidence interval, -$154 to $12 781; P=0.0637). Tight control may benefit women without increasing risk to neonates (as shown in the main CHIPS trial), without additional (and possibly lower) cost to the healthcare system. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01192412. © 2016 The Authors.

Economic Analysis of Anatomic Plating Versus Tubular Plating for the Treatment of Fibula Fractures.

PubMed

Chang, Gerard; Bhat, Suneel B; Raikin, Steven M; Kane, Justin M; Kay, Andrew; Ahmad, Jamal; Pedowitz, David I; Krieg, James

2018-03-01

Ankle fractures are among the most common injuries requiring operative management. Implant choices include one-third tubular plates and anatomically precontoured plates. Although cadaveric studies have not revealed biomechanical differences between various plate constructs, there are substantial cost differences. This study sought to characterize the economic implications of implant choice. A retrospective review was undertaken of 201 consecutive patients with operatively treated OTA type 44B and 44C ankles. A Nationwide Inpatient Sample query was performed to estimate the incidence of ankle fractures requiring fibular plating, and a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted with the estimated at-risk US population for associated plate-specific costs. The authors estimated an annual incidence of operatively treated ankle fractures in the United States of 59,029. The average cost was $90.86 (95% confidence interval, $90.84-$90.87) for a one-third tubular plate vs $746.97 (95% confidence interval, $746.55-$747.39) for an anatomic plate. Across the United States, use of only one-third tubular plating over anatomic plating would result in statistically significant savings of $38,729,517 (95% confidence interval, $38,704,773-$38,754,261; P<.0001). General use of one-third tubular plating instead of anatomic plating whenever possible for fibula fractures could result in cost savings of up to nearly $40 million annually in the United States. Unless clinically justifiable on a per-case basis, or until the advent of studies showing substantial clinical benefit, there currently is no reason for the increased expense from widespread use of anatomic plating for fractures amenable to one-third tubular plating. [Orthopedics. 2018; 41(2):e252-e256.]. Copyright 2018, SLACK Incorporated.

Benefits of off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting in high-risk patients.

PubMed

Marui, Akira; Okabayashi, Hitoshi; Komiya, Tatsuhiko; Tanaka, Shiro; Furukawa, Yutaka; Kita, Toru; Kimura, Takeshi; Sakata, Ryuzo

2012-09-11

The benefits of off-pump coronary artery bypass graft (OPCAB) compared with conventional on-pump coronary artery bypass graft (CCAB) remain controversial. Thus, it is important to investigate which patient subgroups may benefit the most from OPCAB rather than CCAB. Among the patients undergoing first coronary revascularization enrolled in the CREDO-Kyoto Registry (a registry of first-time percutaneous coronary intervention and coronary artery bypass graft patients in Japan), 2468 patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft were entered into the study (mean age, 67 ± 9 years). Predicted risk of operative mortality (PROM) of each patient was calculated by logistic EuroSCORE. Patients were divided into tertile based on their PROM. Mortality rates and the incidences of cardiovascular events were compared between CCAB and OPCAB within each PROM tertile using propensity score analysis. A total of 1377 patients received CCAB whereas 1091 received OPCAB. Adjusted 30-day mortality was not significantly different between CCAB and OPCAB patients regardless of their PROM range. However, the odds ratio of 30-day stroke in CCAB compared with OPCAB in the high-risk tertile was 8.30 (95% confidence interval, 2.25-30.7; P<0.01). Regarding long-term outcomes, hazard ratio of stroke in CCAB compared with OPCAB in the high-risk tertile was 1.80 (95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.02; P=0.03). Nevertheless, hazard ratio of overall mortality in the high-risk tertile was 1.44 (95% confidence interval, 0.98-2.11; P=0.06), indicating no statistically significant difference between the 2 procedures. OPCAB as opposed to CCAB is associated with short-term and long-term benefits in stroke prevention in patients at higher risk as estimated by EuroSCORE. No survival benefit of OPCAB was shown regardless of preoperative risk level.

Hemoglobin Concentration and Risk of Incident Stroke in Community-Living Adults.

PubMed

Panwar, Bhupesh; Judd, Suzanne E; Warnock, David G; McClellan, William M; Booth, John N; Muntner, Paul; Gutiérrez, Orlando M

2016-08-01

In previous observational studies, hemoglobin concentrations have been associated with an increased risk of stroke. However, these studies were limited by a relatively low number of stroke events, making it difficult to determine whether the association of hemoglobin and stroke differed by demographic or clinical factors. Using Cox proportional hazards analysis and Kaplan-Meier plots, we examined the association of baseline hemoglobin concentrations with incident stroke in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, a cohort of black and white adults aged ≥45 years. A total of 518 participants developed stroke over a mean 7±2 years of follow-up. There was a statistically significant interaction between hemoglobin and sex (P=0.05) on the risk of incident stroke. In Cox regression models adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, there was no association of baseline hemoglobin concentration with incident stroke in men, whereas in women, the lowest (<12.4 g/dL) and highest (>14.0 g/dL) quartiles of hemoglobin were associated with higher risk of stroke when compared with the second quartile (12.4-13.2 g/dL; quartile 1: hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-2.31; quartile 2: referent; quartile 3: hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% confidence interval, 0.59-1.38; quartile 4: hazard ratio, 1.59; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.35). Similar results were observed in models stratified by hemoglobin and sex and when hemoglobin was modeled as a continuous variable using restricted quadratic spline regression. Lower and higher hemoglobin concentrations were associated with a higher risk of incident stroke in women. No such associations were found in men. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Longitudinal Assessment of Vascular Function With Sunitinib in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Catino, Anna B; Hubbard, Rebecca A; Chirinos, Julio A; Townsend, Ray; Keefe, Stephen; Haas, Naomi B; Puzanov, Igor; Fang, James C; Agarwal, Neeraj; Hyman, David; Smith, Amanda M; Gordon, Mary; Plappert, Theodore; Englefield, Virginia; Narayan, Vivek; Ewer, Steven; ElAmm, Chantal; Lenihan, Daniel; Ky, Bonnie

2018-03-01

Sunitinib, used widely in metastatic renal cell carcinoma, can result in hypertension, left ventricular dysfunction, and heart failure. However, the relationships between vascular function and cardiac dysfunction with sunitinib are poorly understood. In a multicenter prospective study of 84 metastatic renal cell carcinoma patients, echocardiography, arterial tonometry, and BNP (B-type natriuretic peptide) measures were performed at baseline and at 3.5, 15, and 33 weeks after sunitinib initiation, correlating with sunitinib cycles 1, 3, and 6. Mean change in vascular function parameters and 95% confidence intervals were calculated. Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between vascular function and left ventricular ejection fraction, longitudinal strain, diastolic function (E/e'), and BNP. After 3.5 weeks of sunitinib, mean systolic blood pressure increased by 9.5 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 2.0-17.1; P =0.02) and diastolic blood pressure by 7.2 mm Hg (95% confidence interval, 4.3-10.0; P <0.001) across all participants. Sunitinib resulted in increases in large artery stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity) and resistive load (total peripheral resistance and arterial elastance; all P <0.05) and changes in pulsatile load (total arterial compliance and wave reflection). There were no statistically significant associations between vascular function and systolic dysfunction (left ventricular ejection fraction and longitudinal strain). However, baseline total peripheral resistance, arterial elastance, and aortic impedance were associated with worsening diastolic function and filling pressures over time. In patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma, sunitinib resulted in early, significant increases in blood pressure, arterial stiffness, and resistive and pulsatile load within 3.5 weeks of treatment. Baseline vascular function parameters were associated with worsening diastolic but not systolic function. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Diagnosing delirium in critically ill children: Validity and reliability of the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for the Intensive Care Unit.

PubMed

Smith, Heidi A B; Boyd, Jenny; Fuchs, D Catherine; Melvin, Kelly; Berry, Pamela; Shintani, Ayumi; Eden, Svetlana K; Terrell, Michelle K; Boswell, Tonya; Wolfram, Karen; Sopfe, Jenna; Barr, Frederick E; Pandharipande, Pratik P; Ely, E Wesley

2011-01-01

To validate a diagnostic instrument for pediatric delirium in critically ill children, both ventilated and nonventilated, that uses standardized, developmentally appropriate measurements. A prospective observational cohort study investigating the Pediatric Confusion Assessment Method for Intensive Care Unit (pCAM-ICU) patients in the pediatric medical, surgical, and cardiac intensive care unit of a university-based medical center. A total of 68 pediatric critically ill patients, at least 5 years of age, were enrolled from July 1, 2008, to March 30, 2009. None. Criterion validity including sensitivity and specificity and interrater reliability were determined using daily delirium assessments with the pCAM-ICU by two critical care clinicians compared with delirium diagnosis by pediatric psychiatrists using Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, 4th Edition, Text Revision criteria. A total of 146 paired assessments were completed among 68 enrolled patients with a mean age of 12.2 yrs. Compared with the reference standard for diagnosing delirium, the pCAM-ICU demonstrated a sensitivity of 83% (95% confidence interval, 66-93%), a specificity of 99% (95% confidence interval, 95-100%), and a high interrater reliability (κ = 0.96; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.0). The pCAM-ICU is a highly valid reliable instrument for the diagnosis of pediatric delirium in critically ill children chronologically and developmentally at least 5 yrs of age. Use of the pCAM-ICU may expedite diagnosis and consultation with neuropsychiatry specialists for treatment of pediatric delirium. In addition, the pCAM-ICU may provide a means for delirium monitoring in future epidemiologic and interventional studies in critically ill children.

A Randomized Controlled Trial of Low-Dose Tranexamic Acid versus Placebo to Reduce Red Blood Cell Transfusion During Complex Multilevel Spine Fusion Surgery.

PubMed

Carabini, Louanne M; Moreland, Natalie C; Vealey, Ryan J; Bebawy, John F; Koski, Tyler R; Koht, Antoun; Gupta, Dhanesh K; Avram, Michael J

2018-02-01

Multilevel spine fusion surgery for adult deformity correction is associated with significant blood loss and coagulopathy. Tranexamic acid reduces blood loss in high-risk surgery, but the efficacy of a low-dose regimen is unknown. Sixty-one patients undergoing multilevel complex spinal fusion with and without osteotomies were randomly assigned to receive low-dose tranexamic acid (10 mg/kg loading dose, then 1 mg·kg -1 ·hr -1 throughout surgery) or placebo. The primary outcome was the total volume of red blood cells transfused intraoperatively. Thirty-one patients received tranexamic acid, and 30 patients received placebo. Patient demographics, risk of major transfusion, preoperative hemoglobin, and surgical risk of the 2 groups were similar. There was a significant decrease in total volume of red blood cells transfused (placebo group median 1460 mL vs. tranexamic acid group 1140 mL; median difference 463 mL, 95% confidence interval 15 to 914 mL, P = 0.034), with a decrease in cell saver transfusion (placebo group median 490 mL vs. tranexamic acid group 256 mL; median difference 166 mL, 95% confidence interval 0 to 368 mL, P = 0.042). The decrease in packed red blood cell transfusion did not reach statistical significance (placebo group median 1050 mL vs. tranexamic acid group 600 mL; median difference 300 mL, 95% confidence interval 0 to 600 mL, P = 0.097). Our results support the use of low-dose tranexamic acid during complex multilevel spine fusion surgery to decrease total red blood cell transfusion. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spectral and cross-spectral analysis of uneven time series with the smoothed Lomb-Scargle periodogram and Monte Carlo evaluation of statistical significance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Rodríguez-Tovar, Francisco J.

2012-12-01

Many spectral analysis techniques have been designed assuming sequences taken with a constant sampling interval. However, there are empirical time series in the geosciences (sediment cores, fossil abundance data, isotope analysis, …) that do not follow regular sampling because of missing data, gapped data, random sampling or incomplete sequences, among other reasons. In general, interpolating an uneven series in order to obtain a succession with a constant sampling interval alters the spectral content of the series. In such cases it is preferable to follow an approach that works with the uneven data directly, avoiding the need for an explicit interpolation step. The Lomb-Scargle periodogram is a popular choice in such circumstances, as there are programs available in the public domain for its computation. One new computer program for spectral analysis improves the standard Lomb-Scargle periodogram approach in two ways: (1) It explicitly adjusts the statistical significance to any bias introduced by variance reduction smoothing, and (2) it uses a permutation test to evaluate confidence levels, which is better suited than parametric methods when neighbouring frequencies are highly correlated. Another novel program for cross-spectral analysis offers the advantage of estimating the Lomb-Scargle cross-periodogram of two uneven time series defined on the same interval, and it evaluates the confidence levels of the estimated cross-spectra by a non-parametric computer intensive permutation test. Thus, the cross-spectrum, the squared coherence spectrum, the phase spectrum, and the Monte Carlo statistical significance of the cross-spectrum and the squared-coherence spectrum can be obtained. Both of the programs are written in ANSI Fortran 77, in view of its simplicity and compatibility. The program code is of public domain, provided on the website of the journal (http://www.iamg.org/index.php/publisher/articleview/frmArticleID/112/). Different examples (with simulated and real data) are described in this paper to corroborate the methodology and the implementation of these two new programs.

Calculation of Weibull strength parameters and Batdorf flow-density constants for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pai, Shantaram S.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1988-01-01

The calculation of shape and scale parameters of the two-parameter Weibull distribution is described using the least-squares analysis and maximum likelihood methods for volume- and surface-flaw-induced fracture in ceramics with complete and censored samples. Detailed procedures are given for evaluating 90 percent confidence intervals for maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, the unbiased estimates of the shape parameters, and the Weibull mean values and corresponding standard deviations. Furthermore, the necessary steps are described for detecting outliers and for calculating the Kolmogorov-Smirnov and the Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and 90 percent confidence bands about the Weibull distribution. It also shows how to calculate the Batdorf flaw-density constants by uing the Weibull distribution statistical parameters. The techniques described were verified with several example problems, from the open literature, and were coded. The techniques described were verified with several example problems from the open literature, and were coded in the Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) design program.

Confidence intervals for a difference between lognormal means in cluster randomization trials.

PubMed

Poirier, Julia; Zou, G Y; Koval, John

2017-04-01

Cluster randomization trials, in which intact social units are randomized to different interventions, have become popular in the last 25 years. Outcomes from these trials in many cases are positively skewed, following approximately lognormal distributions. When inference is focused on the difference between treatment arm arithmetic means, existent confidence interval procedures either make restricting assumptions or are complex to implement. We approach this problem by assuming log-transformed outcomes from each treatment arm follow a one-way random effects model. The treatment arm means are functions of multiple parameters for which separate confidence intervals are readily available, suggesting that the method of variance estimates recovery may be applied to obtain closed-form confidence intervals. A simulation study showed that this simple approach performs well in small sample sizes in terms of empirical coverage, relatively balanced tail errors, and interval widths as compared to existing methods. The methods are illustrated using data arising from a cluster randomization trial investigating a critical pathway for the treatment of community acquired pneumonia.

Probability as certainty: dichotomous thinking and the misuse of p values.

PubMed

Hoekstra, Rink; Finch, Sue; Kiers, Henk A L; Johnson, Addie

2006-12-01

Significance testing is widely used and often criticized. The Task Force on Statistical Inference of the American Psychological Association (TFSI, APA; Wilkinson & TFSI, 1999) addressed the use of significance testing and made recommendations that were incorporated in the fifth edition of the APA Publication Manual (APA, 2001). They emphasized the interpretation of significance testing and the importance of reporting confidence intervals and effect sizes. We examined whether 286 Psychonomic Bulletin & Review articles submitted before and after the publication of the TFSI recommendations by APA complied with these recommendations. Interpretation errors when using significance testing were still made frequently, and the new prescriptions were not yet followed on a large scale. Changing the practice of reporting statistics seems doomed to be a slow process.

Design, analysis, and interpretation of field quality-control data for water-sampling projects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mueller, David K.; Schertz, Terry L.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Sandstrom, Mark W.

2015-01-01

The report provides extensive information about statistical methods used to analyze quality-control data in order to estimate potential bias and variability in environmental data. These methods include construction of confidence intervals on various statistical measures, such as the mean, percentiles and percentages, and standard deviation. The methods are used to compare quality-control results with the larger set of environmental data in order to determine whether the effects of bias and variability might interfere with interpretation of these data. Examples from published reports are presented to illustrate how the methods are applied, how bias and variability are reported, and how the interpretation of environmental data can be qualified based on the quality-control analysis.

Frequentist Model Averaging in Structural Equation Modelling.

PubMed

Jin, Shaobo; Ankargren, Sebastian

2018-06-04

Model selection from a set of candidate models plays an important role in many structural equation modelling applications. However, traditional model selection methods introduce extra randomness that is not accounted for by post-model selection inference. In the current study, we propose a model averaging technique within the frequentist statistical framework. Instead of selecting an optimal model, the contributions of all candidate models are acknowledged. Valid confidence intervals and a [Formula: see text] test statistic are proposed. A simulation study shows that the proposed method is able to produce a robust mean-squared error, a better coverage probability, and a better goodness-of-fit test compared to model selection. It is an interesting compromise between model selection and the full model.

Cormack Research Project: Glasgow University

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skinner, Susan; Ryan, James M.

1998-01-01

The aim of this project was to investigate and improve upon existing methods of analysing data from COMITEL on the Gamma Ray Observatory for neutrons emitted during solar flares. In particular, a strategy for placing confidence intervals on neutron energy distributions, due to uncertainties on the response matrix has been developed. We have also been able to demonstrate the superior performance of one of a range of possible statistical regularization strategies. A method of generating likely models of neutron energy distributions has also been developed as a tool to this end. The project involved solving an inverse problem with noise being added to the data in various ways. To achieve this pre-existing C code was used to run Fortran subroutines which performed statistical regularization on the data.

Estimation and confidence intervals for empirical mixing distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1995-01-01

Questions regarding collections of parameter estimates can frequently be expressed in terms of an empirical mixing distribution (EMD). This report discusses empirical Bayes estimation of an EMD, with emphasis on the construction of interval estimates. Estimation of the EMD is accomplished by substitution of estimates of prior parameters in the posterior mean of the EMD. This procedure is examined in a parametric model (the normal-normal mixture) and in a semi-parametric model. In both cases, the empirical Bayes bootstrap of Laird and Louis (1987, Journal of the American Statistical Association 82, 739-757) is used to assess the variability of the estimated EMD arising from the estimation of prior parameters. The proposed methods are applied to a meta-analysis of population trend estimates for groups of birds.

The Distribution of the Product Explains Normal Theory Mediation Confidence Interval Estimation.

PubMed

Kisbu-Sakarya, Yasemin; MacKinnon, David P; Miočević, Milica

2014-05-01

The distribution of the product has several useful applications. One of these applications is its use to form confidence intervals for the indirect effect as the product of 2 regression coefficients. The purpose of this article is to investigate how the moments of the distribution of the product explain normal theory mediation confidence interval coverage and imbalance. Values of the critical ratio for each random variable are used to demonstrate how the moments of the distribution of the product change across values of the critical ratio observed in research studies. Results of the simulation study showed that as skewness in absolute value increases, coverage decreases. And as skewness in absolute value and kurtosis increases, imbalance increases. The difference between testing the significance of the indirect effect using the normal theory versus the asymmetric distribution of the product is further illustrated with a real data example. This article is the first study to show the direct link between the distribution of the product and indirect effect confidence intervals and clarifies the results of previous simulation studies by showing why normal theory confidence intervals for indirect effects are often less accurate than those obtained from the asymmetric distribution of the product or from resampling methods.

Prolonged corrected QT interval is predictive of future stroke events even in subjects without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy.

PubMed

Ishikawa, Joji; Ishikawa, Shizukiyo; Kario, Kazuomi

2015-03-01

We attempted to evaluate whether subjects who exhibit prolonged corrected QT (QTc) interval (≥440 ms in men and ≥460 ms in women) on ECG, with and without ECG-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy (ECG-LVH; Cornell product, ≥244 mV×ms), are at increased risk of stroke. Among the 10 643 subjects, there were a total of 375 stroke events during the follow-up period (128.7±28.1 months; 114 142 person-years). The subjects with prolonged QTc interval (hazard ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-3.73) had an increased risk of stroke even after adjustment for ECG-LVH (hazard ratio, 1.71; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-2.40). When we stratified the subjects into those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH, those with a prolonged QTc interval but without ECG-LVH, and those with ECG-LVH, multivariate-adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis demonstrated that the subjects with prolonged QTc intervals but not ECG-LVH (1.2% of all subjects; incidence, 10.7%; hazard ratio, 2.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.48-4.94) and those with ECG-LVH (incidence, 7.9%; hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.31-2.57) had an increased risk of stroke events, compared with those with neither a prolonged QTc interval nor ECG-LVH. In conclusion, prolonged QTc interval was associated with stroke risk even among patients without ECG-LVH in the general population. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Quality of reporting statistics in two Indian pharmacology journals.

PubMed

Jaykaran; Yadav, Preeti

2011-04-01

To evaluate the reporting of the statistical methods in articles published in two Indian pharmacology journals. All original articles published since 2002 were downloaded from the journals' (Indian Journal of Pharmacology (IJP) and Indian Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology (IJPP)) website. These articles were evaluated on the basis of appropriateness of descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Descriptive statistics was evaluated on the basis of reporting of method of description and central tendencies. Inferential statistics was evaluated on the basis of fulfilling of assumption of statistical methods and appropriateness of statistical tests. Values are described as frequencies, percentage, and 95% confidence interval (CI) around the percentages. Inappropriate descriptive statistics was observed in 150 (78.1%, 95% CI 71.7-83.3%) articles. Most common reason for this inappropriate descriptive statistics was use of mean ± SEM at the place of "mean (SD)" or "mean ± SD." Most common statistical method used was one-way ANOVA (58.4%). Information regarding checking of assumption of statistical test was mentioned in only two articles. Inappropriate statistical test was observed in 61 (31.7%, 95% CI 25.6-38.6%) articles. Most common reason for inappropriate statistical test was the use of two group test for three or more groups. Articles published in two Indian pharmacology journals are not devoid of statistical errors.

Calculating Confidence Intervals for Regional Economic Impacts of Recreastion by Bootstrapping Visitor Expenditures

Treesearch

Donald B.K. English

2000-01-01

In this paper I use bootstrap procedures to develop confidence intervals for estimates of total industrial output generated per thousand tourist visits. Mean expenditures from replicated visitor expenditure data included weights to correct for response bias. Impacts were estimated with IMPLAN. Ninety percent interval endpoints were 6 to 16 percent above or below the...

NESB patients.

PubMed

Charles, Janice; Britt, Helena; Fahridin, Salma

2010-04-01

General practitioner consultations with patients of non-English speaking background (NESB) account for one in 10 encounters recorded in the BEACH (Bettering the Evaluation and Care of Health) program (NESB is defined as patients who reported that their primary language spoken at home is not English). We present a descriptive comparison of consultations with NESB and English speaking patients recorded between April 2007 and March 2009. Indigenous persons were excluded from the analysis to give a clearer picture of NESB patients of non- Australian origin. Only statistically significant differences with nonoverlapping 95% confidence intervals are reported.

Arbitrage opportunities and their implications to derivative hedging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panayides, Stephanos

2006-02-01

We explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in hedging financial derivatives. We extend the asymptotic pricing theory presented by Fedotov and Panayides [Stochastic arbitrage return and its implication for option pricing, Physica A 345 (2005) 207-217] for the case of hedging a derivative when arbitrage opportunities are present in the market. We restrict ourselves to finding hedging confidence intervals that can be adapted to the amount of arbitrage risk an investor will permit to be exposed to. The resulting hedging bands are independent of the detailed statistical characteristics of the arbitrage opportunities.

A short note on jackknifing the concordance correlation coefficient.

PubMed

Feng, Dai; Baumgartner, Richard; Svetnik, Vladimir

2014-02-10

Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is a very popular scaled index of agreement used in applied statistics. To obtain a confidence interval (CI) for the estimate of CCC, jackknifing was proposed and shown to perform well in simulation as well as in applications. However, a theoretical proof of the validity of the jackknife CI for the CCC has not been presented yet. In this note, we establish a sufficient condition for using the jackknife method to construct the CI for the CCC. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An empirical Bayes approach to analyzing recurring animal surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, D.H.

1989-01-01

Recurring estimates of the size of animal populations are often required by biologists or wildlife managers. Because of cost or other constraints, estimates frequently lack the accuracy desired but cannot readily be improved by additional sampling. This report proposes a statistical method employing empirical Bayes (EB) estimators as alternatives to those customarily used to estimate population size, and evaluates them by a subsampling experiment on waterfowl surveys. EB estimates, especially a simple limited-translation version, were more accurate and provided shorter confidence intervals with greater coverage probabilities than customary estimates.

Does blood transfusion affect intermediate survival after coronary artery bypass surgery?

PubMed

Mikkola, R; Heikkinen, J; Lahtinen, J; Paone, R; Juvonen, T; Biancari, F

2013-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of transfusion of blood products on intermediate outcome after coronary artery bypass surgery. Complete data on perioperative blood transfusion in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery were available from 2001 patients who were operated at our institution. Transfusion of any blood product (relative risk = 1.678, 95% confidence interval = 1.087-2.590) was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The additive effect of each blood product on all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.401, 95% confidence interval = 1.203-1.630) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 1.553, 95% confidence interval = 1.273-1.895) was evident when the sum of each blood product was included in the regression models. However, when single blood products were included in the regression model, transfusion of fresh frozen plasma/Octaplas® was the only blood product associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.692, 95% confidence interval = 1.222-2.344) and cardiac mortality (relative risk = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 1.414-3.194). The effect of blood product transfusion was particularly evident during the first three postoperative months. Since follow-up was truncated at 3 months, transfusion of any blood product was a significant predictor of all-cause mortality (relative risk = 2.998, 95% confidence interval = 1.053-0.537). Analysis of patients who survived or had at least 3 months of potential follow-up showed that transfusion of any blood product was not associated with a significantly increased risk of intermediate all-cause mortality (relative risk = 1.430, 95% confidence interval = 0.880-2.323). Transfusion of any blood product is associated with a significant risk of all-cause and cardiac mortality after coronary artery bypass surgery. Such a risk seems to be limited to the early postoperative period and diminishes later on. Among blood products, perioperative use of fresh frozen plasma or Octaplas seems to be the main determinant of mortality.

Rapid Contour-based Segmentation for 18F-FDG PET Imaging of Lung Tumors by Using ITK-SNAP: Comparison to Expert-based Segmentation.

PubMed

Besson, Florent L; Henry, Théophraste; Meyer, Céline; Chevance, Virgile; Roblot, Victoire; Blanchet, Elise; Arnould, Victor; Grimon, Gilles; Chekroun, Malika; Mabille, Laurence; Parent, Florence; Seferian, Andrei; Bulifon, Sophie; Montani, David; Humbert, Marc; Chaumet-Riffaud, Philippe; Lebon, Vincent; Durand, Emmanuel

2018-04-03

Purpose To assess the performance of the ITK-SNAP software for fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET) segmentation of complex-shaped lung tumors compared with an optimized, expert-based manual reference standard. Materials and Methods Seventy-six FDG PET images of thoracic lesions were retrospectively segmented by using ITK-SNAP software. Each tumor was manually segmented by six raters to generate an optimized reference standard by using the simultaneous truth and performance level estimate algorithm. Four raters segmented 76 FDG PET images of lung tumors twice by using ITK-SNAP active contour algorithm. Accuracy of ITK-SNAP procedure was assessed by using Dice coefficient and Hausdorff metric. Interrater and intrarater reliability were estimated by using intraclass correlation coefficients of output volumes. Finally, the ITK-SNAP procedure was compared with currently recommended PET tumor delineation methods on the basis of thresholding at 41% volume of interest (VOI; VOI 41 ) and 50% VOI (VOI 50 ) of the tumor's maximal metabolism intensity. Results Accuracy estimates for the ITK-SNAP procedure indicated a Dice coefficient of 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.77, 0.89) and a Hausdorff distance of 12.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 9.82, 15.32). Interrater reliability was an intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.94 (95% confidence interval: 0.91, 0.96). The intrarater reliabilities were intraclass correlation coefficients above 0.97. Finally, VOI 41 and VOI 50 accuracy metrics were as follows: Dice coefficient, 0.48 (95% confidence interval: 0.44, 0.51) and 0.34 (95% confidence interval: 0.30, 0.38), respectively, and Hausdorff distance, 25.6 mm (95% confidence interval: 21.7, 31.4) and 31.3 mm (95% confidence interval: 26.8, 38.4), respectively. Conclusion ITK-SNAP is accurate and reliable for active-contour-based segmentation of heterogeneous thoracic PET tumors. ITK-SNAP surpassed the recommended PET methods compared with ground truth manual segmentation. © RSNA, 2018.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2000-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Ten studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0. 90); and a trend to reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.00). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0. 12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor in labour.

PubMed

Hofmeyr, G J

2002-01-01

Amnioinfusion aims to prevent or relieve umbilical cord compression during labour by infusing a solution into the uterine cavity. It is also thought to dilute meconium when present in the amniotic fluid and so reduce the risk of meconium aspiration. However, it may be that the mechanism of effect is that it corrects oligohydramnios (reduced amniotic fluid), for which thick meconium staining is a marker. The objective of this review was to assess the effects of amnioinfusion for meconium-stained liquor on perinatal outcome. The Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register (October 2001) and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Issue 3, 2001) were searched. Randomised trials comparing amnioinfusion with no amnioinfusion for women in labour with moderate or thick meconium-staining of the amniotic fluid. Eligibility and trial quality were assessed by one reviewer. Twelve studies, most involving small numbers of participants, were included. Under standard perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: heavy meconium staining of the liquor (relative risk 0.03, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.15); variable fetal heart rate deceleration (relative risk 0.65, 95% confidence interval 0.49 to 0.88); and reduced caesarean section overall (relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 1.97). No perinatal deaths were reported. Under limited perinatal surveillance, amnioinfusion was associated with a reduction in the following: meconium aspiration syndrome (relative risk 0.24, 95% confidence interval 0.12 to 0.48); neonatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy (relative risk 0.07, 95% confidence interval 0.01 to 0.56) and neonatal ventilation or intensive care unit admission (relative risk 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.79); there was a trend towards reduced perinatal mortality (relative risk 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.11 to 1.06). Amnioinfusion is associated with improvements in perinatal outcome, particularly in settings where facilities for perinatal surveillance are limited. The trials reviewed are too small to address the possibility of rare but serious maternal adverse effects of amnioinfusion.

Quantitative imaging biomarkers: Effect of sample size and bias on confidence interval coverage.

PubMed

Obuchowski, Nancy A; Bullen, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Introduction Quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIBs) are being increasingly used in medical practice and clinical trials. An essential first step in the adoption of a quantitative imaging biomarker is the characterization of its technical performance, i.e. precision and bias, through one or more performance studies. Then, given the technical performance, a confidence interval for a new patient's true biomarker value can be constructed. Estimating bias and precision can be problematic because rarely are both estimated in the same study, precision studies are usually quite small, and bias cannot be measured when there is no reference standard. Methods A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to assess factors affecting nominal coverage of confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement and for change in the quantitative imaging biomarker over time. Factors considered include sample size for estimating bias and precision, effect of fixed and non-proportional bias, clustered data, and absence of a reference standard. Results Technical performance studies of a quantitative imaging biomarker should include at least 35 test-retest subjects to estimate precision and 65 cases to estimate bias. Confidence intervals for a new patient's quantitative imaging biomarker measurement constructed under the no-bias assumption provide nominal coverage as long as the fixed bias is <12%. For confidence intervals of the true change over time, linearity must hold and the slope of the regression of the measurements vs. true values should be between 0.95 and 1.05. The regression slope can be assessed adequately as long as fixed multiples of the measurand can be generated. Even small non-proportional bias greatly reduces confidence interval coverage. Multiple lesions in the same subject can be treated as independent when estimating precision. Conclusion Technical performance studies of quantitative imaging biomarkers require moderate sample sizes in order to provide robust estimates of bias and precision for constructing confidence intervals for new patients. Assumptions of linearity and non-proportional bias should be assessed thoroughly.

Association between GFR Estimated by Multiple Methods at Dialysis Commencement and Patient Survival

PubMed Central

Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Cooper, Bruce A.; Branley, Pauline; Collins, John F.; Craig, Jonathan C.; Kesselhut, Joan; Luxton, Grant; Pilmore, Andrew; Harris, David C.

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives The Initiating Dialysis Early and Late study showed that planned early or late initiation of dialysis, based on the Cockcroft and Gault estimation of GFR, was associated with identical clinical outcomes. This study examined the association of all-cause mortality with estimated GFR at dialysis commencement, which was determined using multiple formulas. Design, setting, participants, & measurements Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants were stratified into tertiles according to the estimated GFR measured by Cockcroft and Gault, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, or Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration formula at dialysis commencement. Patient survival was determined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards model regression. Results Only Initiating Dialysis Early and Late trial participants who commenced on dialysis were included in this study (n=768). A total of 275 patients died during the study. After adjustment for age, sex, racial origin, body mass index, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease, no significant differences in survival were observed between estimated GFR tertiles determined by Cockcroft and Gault (lowest tertile adjusted hazard ratio, 1.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.49; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.74; highest tertile reference), Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.63 to 1.24; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 1.61; highest tertile reference), and Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration equations (lowest tertile hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 1.27; middle tertile hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.86 to 1.54; highest tertile reference). Conclusion Estimated GFR at dialysis commencement was not significantly associated with patient survival, regardless of the formula used. However, a clinically important association cannot be excluded, because observed confidence intervals were wide. PMID:24178976

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Fermi/GBM GRB time-resolved spectral catalog (Yu+, 2016)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, H.-F.; Preece, R. D.; Greiner, J.; Bhat, P. N.; Bissaldi, E.; Briggs, M. S.; Cleveland, W. H.; Connaughton, V.; Goldstein, A.; von Kienlin; A.; Kouveliotou, C.; Mailyan, B.; Meegan, C. A.; Paciesas, W. S.; Rau, A.; Roberts, O. J.; Veres, P.; Wilson-Hodge, C.; Zhang, B.-B.; van Eerten, H. J.

2016-01-01

Time-resolved spectral analysis results of BEST models: for each spectrum GRB name using the Fermi GBM trigger designation, spectrum number within individual burst, start time Tstart and end time Tstop for the time bin, BEST model, best-fit parameters of the BEST model, value of CSTAT per degrees of freedom, 10keV-1MeV photon and energy flux are given. Ep evolutionary trends: for each burst GRB name, number of spectra with Ep, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep_ and photon flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficients between Ep and energy flux and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient between Ep and time and 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by computer for 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals, trends as determined by human eyes are given. (2 data files).

Reporting Practices and Use of Quantitative Methods in Canadian Journal Articles in Psychology.

PubMed

Counsell, Alyssa; Harlow, Lisa L

2017-05-01

With recent focus on the state of research in psychology, it is essential to assess the nature of the statistical methods and analyses used and reported by psychological researchers. To that end, we investigated the prevalence of different statistical procedures and the nature of statistical reporting practices in recent articles from the four major Canadian psychology journals. The majority of authors evaluated their research hypotheses through the use of analysis of variance (ANOVA), t -tests, and multiple regression. Multivariate approaches were less common. Null hypothesis significance testing remains a popular strategy, but the majority of authors reported a standardized or unstandardized effect size measure alongside their significance test results. Confidence intervals on effect sizes were infrequently employed. Many authors provided minimal details about their statistical analyses and less than a third of the articles presented on data complications such as missing data and violations of statistical assumptions. Strengths of and areas needing improvement for reporting quantitative results are highlighted. The paper concludes with recommendations for how researchers and reviewers can improve comprehension and transparency in statistical reporting.

An evaluation of the quality of statistical design and analysis of published medical research: results from a systematic survey of general orthopaedic journals.

PubMed

Parsons, Nick R; Price, Charlotte L; Hiskens, Richard; Achten, Juul; Costa, Matthew L

2012-04-25

The application of statistics in reported research in trauma and orthopaedic surgery has become ever more important and complex. Despite the extensive use of statistical analysis, it is still a subject which is often not conceptually well understood, resulting in clear methodological flaws and inadequate reporting in many papers. A detailed statistical survey sampled 100 representative orthopaedic papers using a validated questionnaire that assessed the quality of the trial design and statistical analysis methods. The survey found evidence of failings in study design, statistical methodology and presentation of the results. Overall, in 17% (95% confidence interval; 10-26%) of the studies investigated the conclusions were not clearly justified by the results, in 39% (30-49%) of studies a different analysis should have been undertaken and in 17% (10-26%) a different analysis could have made a difference to the overall conclusions. It is only by an improved dialogue between statistician, clinician, reviewer and journal editor that the failings in design methodology and analysis highlighted by this survey can be addressed.

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

On the analysis of studies of choice

PubMed Central

Mullins, Eamonn; Agunwamba, Christian C.; Donohoe, Anthony J.

1982-01-01

In a review of 103 sets of data from 23 different studies of choice, Baum (1979) concluded that whereas undermatching was most commonly observed for responses, the time measure generally conformed to the matching relation. A reexamination of the evidence presented by Baum concludes that undermatching is the most commonly observed finding for both measures. Use of the coefficient of determination by both Baum (1979) and de Villiers (1977) for assessing when matching occurs is criticized on statistical grounds. An alternative to the loss-in-predictability criterion used by Baum (1979) is proposed. This alternative statistic has a simple operational meaning and is related to the usual F-ratio test. It can therefore be used as a formal test of the hypothesis that matching occurs. Baum (1979) also suggests that slope values of between .90 and 1.11 can be considered good approximations to matching. It is argued that the establishment of a fixed interval as a criterion for determining when matching occurs, is inappropriate. A confidence interval based on the data from any given experiment is suggested as a more useful method of assessment. PMID:16812271

Comparison of Dissolution Similarity Assessment Methods for Products with Large Variations: f2 Statistics and Model-Independent Multivariate Confidence Region Procedure for Dissolution Profiles of Multiple Oral Products.

PubMed

Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Shibata, Hiroko; Izutsu, Ken-Ichi; Goda, Yukihiro

2017-01-01

The current Japanese Ministry of Health Labour and Welfare (MHLW)'s Guideline for Bioequivalence Studies of Generic Products uses averaged dissolution rates for the assessment of dissolution similarity between test and reference formulations. This study clarifies how the application of model-independent multivariate confidence region procedure (Method B), described in the European Medical Agency and U.S. Food and Drug Administration guidelines, affects similarity outcomes obtained empirically from dissolution profiles with large variations in individual dissolution rates. Sixty-one datasets of dissolution profiles for immediate release, oral generic, and corresponding innovator products that showed large variation in individual dissolution rates in generic products were assessed on their similarity by using the f 2 statistics defined in the MHLW guidelines (MHLW f 2 method) and two different Method B procedures, including a bootstrap method applied with f 2 statistics (BS method) and a multivariate analysis method using the Mahalanobis distance (MV method). The MHLW f 2 and BS methods provided similar dissolution similarities between reference and generic products. Although a small difference in the similarity assessment may be due to the decrease in the lower confidence interval for expected f 2 values derived from the large variation in individual dissolution rates, the MV method provided results different from those obtained through MHLW f 2 and BS methods. Analysis of actual dissolution data for products with large individual variations would provide valuable information towards an enhanced understanding of these methods and their possible incorporation in the MHLW guidelines.

An inferential study of the phenotype for the chromosome 15q24 microdeletion syndrome: a bootstrap analysis

PubMed Central

Ramírez-Prado, Dolores; Cortés, Ernesto; Aguilar-Segura, María Soledad; Gil-Guillén, Vicente Francisco

2016-01-01

In January 2012, a review of the cases of chromosome 15q24 microdeletion syndrome was published. However, this study did not include inferential statistics. The aims of the present study were to update the literature search and calculate confidence intervals for the prevalence of each phenotype using bootstrap methodology. Published case reports of patients with the syndrome that included detailed information about breakpoints and phenotype were sought and 36 were included. Deletions in megabase (Mb) pairs were determined to calculate the size of the interstitial deletion of the phenotypes studied in 2012. To determine confidence intervals for the prevalence of the phenotype and the interstitial loss, we used bootstrap methodology. Using the bootstrap percentiles method, we found wide variability in the prevalence of the different phenotypes (3–100%). The mean interstitial deletion size was 2.72 Mb (95% CI [2.35–3.10 Mb]). In comparison with our work, which expanded the literature search by 45 months, there were differences in the prevalence of 17% of the phenotypes, indicating that more studies are needed to analyze this rare disease. PMID:26925314

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflectometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, R.; Labovitz, M. L.

1982-07-01

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

Methodical aspects of rearing decapod larvae, Pagurus bernhardus (Paguridae) and Carcinus maenas (Portunidae)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawirs, R. R.

1982-12-01

Improved methods for experimental rearing of Pagurus bernhardus and Carcinus maenas larvae are presented. Isolated maintenance was found essential for reliable statistical evaluation of results obtained from stages older than zoea-1. Only by isolated rearing is it possible to calculate mean values ±95% confidence intervals of stage duration. Mean values (without confidence intervals) can only be given for group-reared larvae if mortality is zero. Compared to group rearing, isolated rearing led to better survival, shorter periods of development and stimulated growth. Due to different swimming behavior P. bernhardus zoeae needed larger water volumes than Carcinus maenas larvae. P. bernhardus zoeae were reared with best results when isolated in Petri dishes (ca. 50 ml). They fed on newly hatched brine shrimp nauplii ( Artemia spp.). P. bernhardus megalopa did not require any gastropod shell or substratum; it developed best in glass vials without any food. C. maenas larvae could be reared most sucessfully in glass vials (ca 20 ml) under a simulated day-night regime (LD 16:8); constant darkness had a detrimental effect on development, leading to prolonged stage-duration times. C. maenas larvae were fed a mixture of newly hatched brine shrimp naupli and rotifers ( Brachionus plicatilis).

Performance analysis of complex repairable industrial systems using PSO and fuzzy confidence interval based methodology.

PubMed

Garg, Harish

2013-03-01

The main objective of the present paper is to propose a methodology for analyzing the behavior of the complex repairable industrial systems. In real-life situations, it is difficult to find the most optimal design policies for MTBF (mean time between failures), MTTR (mean time to repair) and related costs by utilizing available resources and uncertain data. For this, the availability-cost optimization model has been constructed for determining the optimal design parameters for improving the system design efficiency. The uncertainties in the data related to each component of the system are estimated with the help of fuzzy and statistical methodology in the form of the triangular fuzzy numbers. Using these data, the various reliability parameters, which affects the system performance, are obtained in the form of the fuzzy membership function by the proposed confidence interval based fuzzy Lambda-Tau (CIBFLT) methodology. The computed results by CIBFLT are compared with the existing fuzzy Lambda-Tau methodology. Sensitivity analysis on the system MTBF has also been addressed. The methodology has been illustrated through a case study of washing unit, the main part of the paper industry. Copyright © 2012 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Open Tibia Shaft Fractures and Soft-Tissue Coverage: The Effects of Management by an Orthopaedic Microsurgical Team.

PubMed

VandenBerg, James; Osei, Daniel; Boyer, Martin I; Gardner, Michael J; Ricci, William M; Spraggs-Hughes, Amanda; McAndrew, Christopher M

2017-06-01

To compare the timing of soft-tissue (flap) coverage and occurrence of complications before and after the establishment of an integrated orthopaedic trauma/microsurgical team. Retrospective cohort study. A single level 1 trauma center. Twenty-eight subjects (13 pre- and 15 post-integration) with open tibia shaft fractures (OTA/AO 42A, 42B, and 42C) treated with flap coverage between January 2009 and March 2015. Flap coverage for open tibia shaft fractures treated before ("preintegration") and after ("postintegration") implementation of an integrated orthopaedic trauma/microsurgical team. Time from index injury to flap coverage. The unadjusted median time to coverage was 7 days (95% confidence interval, 5.9-8.1) preintegration, and 6 days (95% confidence interval, 4.6-7.4) postintegration (P = 0.48). For preintegration, 9 (69%) of the patients experienced complications, compared with 7 (47%) postintegration (P = 0.23). After formation of an integrated orthopaedic trauma/microsurgery team, we observed a 1-day decrease in median days to coverage from index injury. Complications overall were lowered in the postintegration group, although statistically insignificant. Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Stapler vs suture closure of pancreatic remnant after distal pancreatectomy: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Wei; Lv, Ran; Wang, Xianfa; Mou, Yiping; Cai, Xiujun; Herr, Ingrid

2010-10-01

Suture closure and stapler closure of the pancreatic remnant after distal pancreatectomy are the techniques used most often. The ideal choice remains a matter of debate. Five bibliographic databases covering 1970 to July 2009 were searched. Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria. Stapler closure was performed in 671 patients, while suture closure was conducted in 1,615 patients. The pancreatic fistula rate ranged from 0% to 40.0% for stapler closure of the pancreatic stump and from 9.3% to 45.7% for the suture closure technique. There were no significant difference between the stapler and suture closure groups with respect to the pancreatic fistula formation rate (22.1% vs 31.2%; odds ratio, .85; 95% confidence interval, .66-1.08), although there was a trend toward favoring stapler closure. In 4 studies including 437 patients, stapler closure was associated with a trend (not statistically significant) toward a reduction in intra-abdominal abscess (odds ratio, .53; 95% confidence interval, .24-1.15). No significant differences occur between suture and stapler closure with respect to the pancreatic fistula or intra-abdominal abscess after distal pancreatectomy, though there is a trend favoring stapler closure. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Between-Batch Pharmacokinetic Variability Inflates Type I Error Rate in Conventional Bioequivalence Trials: A Randomized Advair Diskus Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Burmeister Getz, E; Carroll, K J; Mielke, J; Benet, L Z; Jones, B

2017-03-01

We previously demonstrated pharmacokinetic differences among manufacturing batches of a US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved dry powder inhalation product (Advair Diskus 100/50) large enough to establish between-batch bio-inequivalence. Here, we provide independent confirmation of pharmacokinetic bio-inequivalence among Advair Diskus 100/50 batches, and quantify residual and between-batch variance component magnitudes. These variance estimates are used to consider the type I error rate of the FDA's current two-way crossover design recommendation. When between-batch pharmacokinetic variability is substantial, the conventional two-way crossover design cannot accomplish the objectives of FDA's statistical bioequivalence test (i.e., cannot accurately estimate the test/reference ratio and associated confidence interval). The two-way crossover, which ignores between-batch pharmacokinetic variability, yields an artificially narrow confidence interval on the product comparison. The unavoidable consequence is type I error rate inflation, to ∼25%, when between-batch pharmacokinetic variability is nonzero. This risk of a false bioequivalence conclusion is substantially higher than asserted by regulators as acceptable consumer risk (5%). © 2016 The Authors Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Associations between a voluntary restaurant menu designation initiative and patron purchasing behavior.

PubMed

Sosa, Erica T; Biediger-Friedman, Lesli; Banda, Martha

2014-03-01

Restaurant initiatives provide an efficient opportunity to impact large numbers of patrons. The purpose of this study is to measure patron purchasing behaviors during the ¡Por Vida! menu designation initiative. This study used a cross-sectional design and survey data to assess 23 restaurants throughout Bexar County and 152 restaurant patrons. The Patron Awareness Questionnaire assessed if patrons noticed the logo; believed nutrition, cost, and taste were important in making purchasing decisions; and purchased a ¡Por Vida! item. Descriptive statistics, Spearman correlations, and logistic regression were used to analyze the data. Most (93.4%) patrons considered taste very important when deciding what to eat. Cost was very important to 63.8% and nutrition was very important to 55.9% of the sample. The strongest predictors of purchasing a ¡Por Vida! item were the patrons' ages being between 18 and 35 years (odds ratio = 1.474; confidence interval = 0.017, 0.812; p < .05) and if patrons saw the logo (odds ratio = 4.327; confidence interval = 1.696-11.036; p < .01). Menu logo designation initiatives can potentially influence patron purchasing behaviors among a segment of the population when the logo is visible.

An evaluation of the NASA/GSFC Barnes field spectral reflecometer model 14-758, using signal/noise as a measure of utility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, R.; Labovitz, M. L.

1982-01-01

A Barnes field spectral reflectometer which collected information in 373 channels covering the region from 0.4 to 2.5 micrometers was assessed for signal utility. A band was judged unsatisfactory if the probability was 0.1 or greater than its signal to noise ratio was less than eight to one. For each of the bands the probability of a noisy observation was estimated under a binomial assumption from a set of field crop spectra covering an entire growing season. A 95% confidence interval was calculated about each estimate and bands whose lower confidence limits were greater than 0.1 were judged unacceptable. As a result, 283 channels were deemed statistically satisfactory. Excluded channels correspond to portions of the electromagnetic spectrum (EMS) where high atmospheric absorption and filter wheel overlap occur. In addition, the analyses uncovered intervals of unsatisfactory detection capability within the blue, red and far infrared regions of vegetation spectra. From the results of the analysis it was recommended that 90 channels monitored by the instrument under consideration be eliminated from future studies. These channels are tabulated and discussed.

Vitamin D Status at Birth and Future Risk of Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD).

PubMed

Gustafsson, Peik; Rylander, Lars; Lindh, Christian H; Jönsson, Bo A G; Ode, Amanda; Olofsson, Per; Ivarsson, Sten A; Rignell-Hydbom, Anna; Haglund, Nils; Källén, Karin

2015-01-01

To investigate whether children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder have lower levels of Vitamin D3 at birth than matched controls. Umbilical cord blood samples collected at birth from 202 children later diagnosed with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder were analysed for vitamin D content and compared with 202 matched controls. 25-OH vitamin D3 was analysed by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. No differences in cord blood vitamin D concentration were found between children with Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (median 13.0 ng/ml) and controls (median 13.5 ng/ml) (p = 0.43). In a logistic regression analysis, Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder showed a significant association with maternal age (odds ratio: 0.96, 95% confidence interval: 0.92-0.99) but not with vitamin D levels (odds ratio: 0.99, 95% confidence interval: 0.97-1.02). We found no difference in intrauterine vitamin D levels between children later developing Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder and matched control children. However, the statistical power of the study was too weak to detect an eventual small to medium size association between vitamin D levels and Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder.

TARGETED SEQUENTIAL DESIGN FOR TARGETED LEARNING INFERENCE OF THE OPTIMAL TREATMENT RULE AND ITS MEAN REWARD.

PubMed

Chambaz, Antoine; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J

2017-01-01

This article studies the targeted sequential inference of an optimal treatment rule (TR) and its mean reward in the non-exceptional case, i.e. , assuming that there is no stratum of the baseline covariates where treatment is neither beneficial nor harmful, and under a companion margin assumption. Our pivotal estimator, whose definition hinges on the targeted minimum loss estimation (TMLE) principle, actually infers the mean reward under the current estimate of the optimal TR. This data-adaptive statistical parameter is worthy of interest on its own. Our main result is a central limit theorem which enables the construction of confidence intervals on both mean rewards under the current estimate of the optimal TR and under the optimal TR itself. The asymptotic variance of the estimator takes the form of the variance of an efficient influence curve at a limiting distribution, allowing to discuss the efficiency of inference. As a by product, we also derive confidence intervals on two cumulated pseudo-regrets, a key notion in the study of bandits problems. A simulation study illustrates the procedure. One of the corner-stones of the theoretical study is a new maximal inequality for martingales with respect to the uniform entropy integral.

Serum uric acid and cancer mortality and incidence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dovell, Frances; Boffetta, Paolo

2018-07-01

Elevated serum uric acid (SUA) is a marker of chronic inflammation and has been suggested to be associated with increased risk of cancer, but its antioxidant capacity would justify an anticancer effect. Previous meta-analyses did not include all available results. We conducted a systematic review of prospective studies on SUA level and risk of all cancers and specific cancers, a conducted a meta-analysis based on random-effects models for high versus low SUA level as well as for an increase in 1 mg/dl SUA. The relative risk of all cancers for high versus low SUA level was 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 0.94-1.27; 11 risk estimates); that for a mg/dl increase in SUA level was 1.03 (95% confidence interval: 0.99-1.07). Similar results were obtained for lung cancer (six risk estimates) and colon cancer (four risk estimates). Results for other cancers were sparse. Elevated SUA levels appear to be associated with a modest increase in overall cancer risk, although the combined risk estimate did not reach the formal level of statistical significance. Results for specific cancers were limited and mainly negative.

Pregnancy and birth outcomes in couples with infertility with and without assisted reproductive technology: with an emphasis on US population-based studies.

PubMed

Luke, Barbara

2017-09-01

Infertility, defined as the inability to conceive within 1 year of unprotected intercourse, affects an estimated 80 million individuals worldwide, or 10-15% of couples of reproductive age. Assisted reproductive technology includes all infertility treatments to achieve conception; in vitro fertilization is the process by which an oocyte is fertilized by semen outside the body; non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology treatments include ovulation induction, artificial insemination, and intrauterine insemination. Use of assisted reproductive technology has risen steadily in the United States during the past 2 decades due to several reasons, including childbearing at older maternal ages and increasing insurance coverage. The number of in vitro fertilization cycles in the United States has nearly doubled from 2000 through 2013 and currently 1.7% of all live births in the United States are the result of this technology. Since the birth of the first child from in vitro fertilization >35 years ago, >5 million babies have been born from in vitro fertilization, half within the past 6 years. It is estimated that 1% of singletons, 19% of twins, and 25% of triplet or higher multiples are due to in vitro fertilization, and 4%, 21%, and 52%, respectively, are due to non-in vitro fertilization assisted reproductive technology. Higher plurality at birth results in a >10-fold increase in the risks for prematurity and low birthweight in twins vs singletons (adjusted odds ratio, 11.84; 95% confidence interval, 10.56-13.27 and adjusted odds ratio, 10.68; 95% confidence interval, 9.45-12.08, respectively). The use of donor oocytes is associated with increased risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.78) and prematurity (adjusted odds ratio, 1.43; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.83). The use of thawed embryos is associated with higher risks for pregnancy-induced hypertension (adjusted odds ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.57) and large-for-gestation birthweight (adjusted odds ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.45-2.08). Among singletons, in vitro fertilization is associated with increased risk of severe maternal morbidity compared with fertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 2.27; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.88; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.67; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-1.98, respectively) and subfertile deliveries (vaginal: adjusted odds ratio, 1.97; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-3.00; cesarean: adjusted odds ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.35, respectively). Among twins, cesarean in vitro fertilization deliveries have significantly greater severe maternal morbidity compared to cesarean fertile deliveries (adjusted odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.14-1.93). Subfertility, with or without in vitro fertilization or non-in vitro fertilization infertility treatments to achieve a pregnancy, is associated with increased risks of adverse maternal and perinatal outcomes. The major risk from in vitro fertilization treatments of multiple births (and the associated excess of perinatal morbidity) has been reduced over time, with fewer and better-quality embryos being transferred. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Family environment, hobbies and habits as psychosocial predictors of survival for surgically treated patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Tominaga, K; Andow, J; Koyama, Y; Numao, S; Kurokawa, E; Ojima, M; Nagai, M

1998-01-01

Many psychosocial factors have been reported to influence the duration of survival of breast cancer patients. We have studied how family members, hobbies and habits of the patients may alter their psychosocial status. Female patients with surgically treated breast cancer diagnosed between 1986 and 1995 at the Tochigi Cancer Center Hospital, who provided information on the above-mentioned factors, were used. Their subsequent physical status was followed up in the outpatients clinic. The Cox regression model was used to evaluate the relationship between the results of the factors examined and the duration of the patients' survival, adjusting for the patients' age, stage of disease at diagnosis and curability, as judged by the physician in charge after the treatment. The following factors were revealed to be significant with regard to the survival of surgically treated breast cancer patients: being a widow (hazard ratio 3.29; 95% confidence interval 1.32-8.20), having a hobby (hazard ratio 0.43; 95% confidence interval 0.23-0.82), number of hobbies (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.41-1.00), number of female children (hazard ratio 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.42-0.98), smoker (hazard ratio 2.08; 95% confidence interval 1.02-4.26) and alcohol consumption (hazard ratio 0.10; 95% confidence interval 0.01-0.72). These results suggest that psychosocial factors, including the family environment, where patients receive emotional support from their spouse and children, hobbies and the patients' habits, may influence the duration of survival in surgically treated breast cancer patients.

PSYCHOLOGY. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science.

PubMed

2015-08-28

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Review and statistical analysis of the use of ultrasonic velocity for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, D. J.; Swickard, S. M.; Stang, D. B.; Deguire, M. R.

1991-01-01

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semiempirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produces predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis of fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roth, D. J.; Swickard, S. M.; Stang, D. B.; Deguire, M. R.

1990-01-01

A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semi-empirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produced predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis for fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.

Taichi exercise for self-rated sleep quality in older people: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Du, Shizheng; Dong, Jianshu; Zhang, Heng; Jin, Shengji; Xu, Guihua; Liu, Zengxia; Chen, Lixia; Yin, Haiyan; Sun, Zhiling

2015-01-01

Self-reported sleep disorders are common in older adults, resulting in serious consequences. Non-pharmacological measures are important complementary interventions, among which Taichi exercise is a popular alternative. Some experiments have been performed; however, the effect of Taichi exercise in improving sleep quality in older people has yet to be validated by systematic review. Using systematic review and meta-analysis, this study aimed to examine the efficacy of Taichi exercise in promoting self-reported sleep quality in older adults. Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies. 4 English databases: Pubmed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and CINAHL, and 4 Chinese databases: CBMdisc, CNKI, VIP, and Wanfang database were searched through December 2013. Two reviewers independently selected eligible trials, conducted critical appraisal of the methodological quality by using the quality appraisal criteria for randomized controlled studies recommended by Cochrane Handbook. A standardized data form was used to extract information. Meta-analysis was performed. Five randomized controlled studies met inclusion criteria. All suffered from some methodological flaws. The results of this study showed that Taichi has large beneficial effect on sleep quality in older people, as indicated by decreases in the global Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index score [standardized mean difference=-0.87, 95% confidence intervals (95% confidence interval) (-1.25, -0.49)], as well as its sub-domains of subjective sleep quality [standardized mean difference=-0.83, 95% confidence interval (-1.08, -0.57)], sleep latency [standardized mean difference=-0.75, 95% confidence interval (-1.42, -0.07)], sleep duration [standardized mean difference=-0.55, 95% confidence interval (-0.90, -0.21)], habitual sleep efficiency [standardized mean difference=-0.49, 95% confidence interval (-0.74, -0.23)], sleep disturbance [standardized mean difference=-0.44, 95% confidence interval (-0.69, -0.19)], and daytime dysfunction [standardized mean difference=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (-0.59, -0.09)]. Daytime sleepiness improvement was also observed. Weak evidence shows that Taichi exercise has a beneficial effect in improving self-rated sleep quality for older adults, suggesting that Taichi could be an effective alternative and complementary approach to existing therapies for older people with sleep problems. More rigorous experimental studies are required. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Previous treatment, sputum-smear nonconversion, and suburban living: The risk factors of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysians.

PubMed

Mohd Shariff, Noorsuzana; Shah, Shamsul Azhar; Kamaludin, Fadzilah

2016-03-01

The number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients is increasing each year in many countries all around the globe. Malaysia has no exception in facing this burdensome health problem. We aimed to investigate the factors that contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among Malaysian tuberculosis patients. An unmatched case-control study was conducted among tuberculosis patients who received antituberculosis treatments from April 2013 until April 2014. Cases are those diagnosed as pulmonary tuberculosis patients clinically, radiologically, and/or bacteriologically, and who were confirmed to be resistant to both isoniazid and rifampicin through drug-sensitivity testing. On the other hand, pulmonary tuberculosis patients who were sensitive to all first-line antituberculosis drugs and were treated during the same time period served as controls. A total of 150 tuberculosis patients were studied, of which the susceptible cases were 120. Factors found to be significantly associated with the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis are being Indian or Chinese (odds ratio 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.04-9.68; and odds ratio 6.23, 95% confidence interval 2.24-17.35, respectively), unmarried (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.09-6.09), living in suburban areas (odds ratio 2.58, 95% confidence interval 1.08-6.19), are noncompliant (odds ratio 4.50, 95% confidence interval 1.71-11.82), were treated previously (odds ratio 8.91, 95% confidence interval 3.66-21.67), and showed positive sputum smears at the 2nd (odds ratio 7.00, 95% confidence interval 2.46-19.89) and 6th months of treatment (odds ratio 17.96, 95% confidence interval 3.51-91.99). Living in suburban areas, positive sputum smears in the 2nd month of treatment, and was treated previously are factors that independently contribute to the occurrence of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Those with positive smears in the second month of treatment, have a history of previous treatment, and live in suburban areas are found to have a higher probability of becoming multidrug resistant. The results presented here may facilitate improvements in the screening and detection process of drug-resistant patients in Malaysia in the future. Copyright © 2015 Asian-African Society for Mycobacteriology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Limitations of diagnostic precision and predictive utility in the individual case: a challenge for forensic practice.

PubMed

Cooke, David J; Michie, Christine

2010-08-01

Knowledge of group tendencies may not assist accurate predictions in the individual case. This has importance for forensic decision making and for the assessment tools routinely applied in forensic evaluations. In this article, we applied Monte Carlo methods to examine diagnostic agreement with different levels of inter-rater agreement given the distributional characteristics of PCL-R scores. Diagnostic agreement and score agreement were substantially less than expected. In addition, we examined the confidence intervals associated with individual predictions of violent recidivism. On the basis of empirical findings, statistical theory, and logic, we conclude that predictions of future offending cannot be achieved in the individual case with any degree of confidence. We discuss the problems identified in relation to the PCL-R in terms of the broader relevance to all instruments used in forensic decision making.

The new statistics: why and how.

PubMed

Cumming, Geoff

2014-01-01

We need to make substantial changes to how we conduct research. First, in response to heightened concern that our published research literature is incomplete and untrustworthy, we need new requirements to ensure research integrity. These include prespecification of studies whenever possible, avoidance of selection and other inappropriate data-analytic practices, complete reporting, and encouragement of replication. Second, in response to renewed recognition of the severe flaws of null-hypothesis significance testing (NHST), we need to shift from reliance on NHST to estimation and other preferred techniques. The new statistics refers to recommended practices, including estimation based on effect sizes, confidence intervals, and meta-analysis. The techniques are not new, but adopting them widely would be new for many researchers, as well as highly beneficial. This article explains why the new statistics are important and offers guidance for their use. It describes an eight-step new-statistics strategy for research with integrity, which starts with formulation of research questions in estimation terms, has no place for NHST, and is aimed at building a cumulative quantitative discipline.