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Sample records for stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario

  1. Big-bang nucleosynthesis and the relic abundance of dark matter in a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Jittoh, Toshifumi; Koike, Masafumi; Sato, Joe; Yamanaka, Masato; Kohri, Kazunori; Shimomura, Takashi

    2008-09-01

    A scenario of the big-bang nucleosynthesis is analyzed within the minimal supersymmetric standard model, which is consistent with a stau-neutralino coannihilation scenario to explain the relic abundance of dark matter. We find that we can account for the possible discrepancy of the abundance of {sup 7}Li between the observation and the prediction of the big-bang nucleosynthesis by taking the mass of the neutralino as 300 GeV and the mass difference between the stau and the neutralino as (100-120) MeV. We can therefore simultaneously explain the abundance of the dark matter and that of {sup 7}Li by these values of parameters. The lifetime of staus in this scenario is predicted to be O(100-1000) sec.

  2. Determining the dark matter relic density in the minimal supergravity stau-neutralino coannihilation region at the Large Hadron Collider.

    PubMed

    Arnowitt, Richard; Dutta, Bhaskar; Gurrola, Alfredo; Kamon, Teruki; Krislock, Abram; Toback, David

    2008-06-13

    We examine the stau-neutralino coannihilation (CA) mechanism of the early Universe. We use the minimal supergravity (mSUGRA) model and show that from measurements at the CERN Large Hadron Collider one can predict the dark matter relic density with an uncertainty of 6% with 30 fb(-1) of data, which is comparable to the direct measurement by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe. This is done by measuring four mSUGRA parameters m(0), m(1/2), A(0), and tanbeta without requiring direct measurements of the top squark and bottom squark masses. We also provide precision measurements of the gaugino, squark, and lighter stau masses in this CA region without assuming gaugino universality.

  3. Probing the stau-neutralino coannihilation region at the LHC with a soft tau lepton and a jet from initial state radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flórez, Andrés; Bravo, Luis; Gurrola, Alfredo; Ávila, Carlos; Segura, Manuel; Sheldon, Paul; Johns, Will

    2016-10-01

    We present a feasibility study, to search for dark matter at the LHC, in events with one soft hadronically decaying tau lepton and missing transverse energy recoiling against a hard pT jet from initial state radiation. This methodology allows the search for supersymmetry in compressed mass spectra regions, where the mass difference between the lightest neutralino, χ˜10, and the stau (the tau superpartner), τ ˜, is small. Several theoretical models predict a direct connection between thermal bino dark matter and staus within this scenario. We show that compressed regions, not excluded by ATLAS nor CMS experiments, are opened up with the increase in experimental sensitivity reached with the proposed methodology. The requirement of a hard jet from initial state radiation combined with a soft tau lepton is effective in reducing Standard Model backgrounds, providing expected significances greater than 3 σ for χ˜1± masses up to 300 GeV and τ ˜-χ˜10 mass gaps below 25 GeV with only 30 fb-1 of 13 TeV data from the LHC.

  4. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A.

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  5. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    DOE PAGES

    Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

    2016-02-11

    In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses mX ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

  6. Neutralino pair production at the photon-photon collider for the τ̃-coannihilation scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Sonmez, Nasuf

    2016-03-25

    Supersymmetry (SUSY) is a theory which gives an explanation for the strong and electroweak interactions from the grand unification scale down to the weak scale. The search for supersymmetric particles still continues at full speed at the LHC without success. The main task at the ILC is complementing the LHC result and also search for new physics. In this study, the neutralino pair production via photon-photon collision is studied for the t̃-coannihilation scenario in the context of MSSM at the ILC. In the calculation, all the possible one loop diagrams are taken into account for the photon-photon interaction. We present the production cross section and distribution of various observables for the lightest and next-to-lightest neutralino pairs for benchmark models which are specifically presented in the light of LHC8 data analysis, employing these benchmark models for neutralino pair production could show the potential of the ILC concerning the dark matter searches in supersymmetry.

  7. The coannihilation codex

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, Michael J.; Brod, Joachim; El Hedri, Sonia; Kaminska, Anna; Kopp, Joachim; Liu, Jia; Thamm, Andrea; de Vries, Maikel; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Yu, Felix; Zurita, José

    2015-12-01

    We present a general classification of simplified models that lead to dark matter (DM) coannihilation processes of the form DM + X → SM1 + SM2, where X is a coannihilation partner for the DM particle and SM1, SM2 are Standard Model fields. Our classification also encompasses regular DM pair annihilation scenarios if DM and X are identical. Each coannhilation scenario motivates the introduction of a mediating particle M that can either belong to the Standard Model or be a new field, whereby the resulting interactions between the dark sector and the Standard Model are realized as tree-level and dimension-four couplings. We construct a basis of coannihilation models, classified by the SU(3) C × SU(2) L × U(1) Y quantum numbers of DM, X and M. Our main assumptions are that dark matter is an electrically neutral color singlet and that all new particles are either scalars, Dirac or Majorana fermions, or vectors. We illustrate how new scenarios arising from electroweak symmetry breaking effects can be connected to our electroweak symmetric simplified models. We offer a comprehensive discussion of the phenomenological features of our models, encompassing the physics of thermal freeze-out, direct and indirect detection constraints, and in particular searches at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Many novel signatures that are not covered in current LHC searches are emphasized, and new and improved LHC analyses tackling these signatures are proposed. We discuss how the coannihilation simplified models can be used to connect results from all classes of experiments in a straightforward and transparent way. This point is illustrated with a detailed discussion of the phenomenology of a particular simplified model featuring leptoquark-mediated dark matter coannihilation.

  8. Correlation between flavor-violating decay of long-lived slepton and tau in the coannihilation scenario with the seesaw mechanism

    SciTech Connect

    Kaneko, Satoru; Saito, Hiroki; Sato, Joe; Shimomura, Takashi; Vives, Oscar; Yamanaka, Masato

    2011-06-01

    We investigate flavor violating decays of the long-lived lightest slepton and the tau lepton in the coannihilation region of the minimal supersymmetric standard model with a seesaw mechanism to generate neutrino masses. We consider a situation where the mass difference between the lightest neutralino, as the lightest supersymmetric particle, and the lightest slepton, as the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle, is smaller than the mass of tau lepton. In this situation, the lifetime of the lightest slepton is very long and it is determined by lepton flavor violating (LFV) couplings because the slepton mainly consists of the lighter stau and the flavor conserving 2-body decay is kinematically forbidden. We show that the lifetime can change many orders of magnitude by varying the Yukawa couplings entering the seesaw mechanism. We also show that the branching ratios of LFV tau decays are strongly correlated with the lightest slepton lifetime. Therefore the branching ratios of LFV tau decays can be determined or constrained by measuring the slepton lifetime at the LHC experiment.

  9. Dark Matter Coannihilation with a Lighter Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berlin, Asher

    2017-09-01

    We propose a new thermal freeze-out mechanism for ultraheavy dark matter. Dark matter coannihilates with a lighter unstable species that is nearby in mass, leading to an annihilation rate that is exponentially enhanced relative to standard weakly interactive massive particles. This scenario destabilizes any potential dark matter candidate. In order to remain consistent with astrophysical observations, our proposal necessitates very long-lived states, motivating striking phenomenology associated with the late decays of ultraheavy dark matter, potentially as massive as the scale of grand unified theories, MGUT˜1016 GeV .

  10. Discovering bottom squark coannihilation at the ILC

    SciTech Connect

    Belyaev, Alexander; Lastovicka, Tomas; Nomerotski, Andrei; Lastovicka-Medin, Gordana

    2010-02-01

    We study the potential of the international linear collider (ILC) at {radical}(s)=500 GeV to probe new dark matter motivated scenario where the bottom squark (sbottom) is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle. For this scenario, which is virtually impossible for the LHC to test, the ILC has a potential to cover a large fraction of the parameter space. The challenge is due to a very low energy of jets, below 20-30 GeV, which pushes the jet clustering and flavor tagging algorithms to their limits. The process of sbottom pair production was studied within the SiD detector concept. We demonstrate that ILC offers a unique opportunity to test the supersymmetry parameter space motivated by the sbottom-neutralino coannihilation scenario in cases when the sbottom production is kinematically accessible. The study was done with the full SiD simulation and reconstruction chain including all standard model and beam backgrounds.

  11. Rapid thermal co-annihilation through bound states in QCD

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Seyong; Laine, M.

    2016-07-01

    The co-annihilation rate of heavy particles close to thermal equilibrium, which plays a role in many classic dark matter scenarios, can be "simulated" in QCD by considering the pair annihilation rate of a heavy quark and antiquark at a temperature of a few hundred MeV. We show that the so-called Sommerfeld factors, parameterizing the rate, can be defined and measured non-perturbatively within the NRQCD framework. Lattice measurements indicate a modest suppression in the octet channel, in reasonable agreement with perturbation theory, and a large enhancement in the singlet channel, much above the perturbative prediction. The additional enhancement is suggested to originate from bound state formation and subsequent decay. Making use of a Green's function based method to incorporate thermal corrections in perturbative co-annihilation rate computations, we show that qualitative agreement with lattice data can be found once thermally broadened bound states are accounted for. We suggest that our formalism may also be applicable to specific dark matter models which have complicated bound state structures.

  12. Testing light dark matter coannihilation with fixed-target experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izaguirre, Eder; Kahn, Yonatan; Krnjaic, Gordan; Moschella, Matthew

    2017-09-01

    We introduce a novel program of fixed-target searches for thermal-origin dark matter (DM), which couples inelastically to the Standard Model. Since the DM only interacts by transitioning to a heavier state, freeze-out proceeds via coannihilation and the unstable heavier state is depleted at later times. For sufficiently large mass splittings, direct detection is kinematically forbidden and indirect detection is impossible, so this scenario can only be tested with accelerators. Here we propose new searches at proton- and electron-beam fixed-target experiments to probe sub-GeV coannihilation, exploiting the distinctive signals of up- and downscattering as well as decay of the excited state inside the detector volume. We focus on a representative model in which DM is a pseudo-Dirac fermion coupled to a hidden gauge field (dark photon), which kinetically mixes with the visible photon. We define theoretical targets in this framework and determine the existing bounds by reanalyzing results from previous experiments. We find that LSND, E137, and BABAR data already place strong constraints on the parameter space consistent with a thermal freeze-out origin, and that future searches at Belle II and MiniBooNE, as well as recently proposed fixed-target experiments such as LDMX and BDX, can cover nearly all remaining gaps. We also briefly comment on the discovery potential for proposed beam dump and neutrino experiments which operate at much higher beam energies.

  13. Neutrino Coannihilation on Dark-Matter Relics?

    SciTech Connect

    Barenboim, Gabriela; Mena Requejo, Olga; Quigg, Chris; /Fermilab

    2006-04-01

    High-energy neutrinos may resonate with relic background neutralinos to form short-lived sneutrinos. In some circumstances, the decay chain that leads back to the lightest supersymmetric particle would yield few-GeV gamma rays or charged-particle signals. Although resonant coannihilation would occur at an appreciable rate in our galaxy, the signal in any foreseeable detector is unobservably small.

  14. Hunting for dark matter coannihilation by mixing dijet resonances and missing transverse energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buschmann, Malte; El Hedri, Sonia; Kaminska, Anna; Liu, Jia; de Vries, Maikel; Wang, Xiao-Ping; Yu, Felix; Zurita, José

    2016-09-01

    Simplified models of the dark matter (co)annihilation mechanism predict striking new collider signatures untested by current searches. These models, which were codified in the coannihilation codex, provide the basis for a dark matter (DM) discovery program at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) driven by the measured DM relic density. In this work, we study an exemplary model featuring s-channel DM coannihilation through a scalar diquark mediator as a representative case study of scenarios with strongly interacting coannihilation partners. We discuss the full phenomenology of the model, ranging from low energy flavor constraints, vacuum stability requirements, and precision Higgs effects to direct detection and indirect detection prospects. Moreover, motivated by the relic density calculation, we find significant portions of parameter space are compatible with current collider constraints and can be probed by future searches, including a proposed analysis for the novel signature of a dijet resonance accompanied by missing transverse energy (MET). Our results show that the 13 TeV LHC with 100 fb-1 luminosity should be sensitive to mediators as heavy as 1 TeV and dark matter in the 400-500 GeV range. The combination of searches for single and paired dijet peaks, non-resonant jets + MET excesses, and our novel resonant dijet + MET signature have strong coverage of the motivated relic density region, reflecting the tight connections between particles determining the dark matter abundance and their experimental signatures at the LHC.

  15. Reappraisal of dark matter co-annihilating with a top or bottom partner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keung, Wai-Yee; Low, Ian; Zhang, Yue

    2017-07-01

    We revisit the calculation of the relic density of dark matter particles co-annihilating with a top or bottom partner by properly including the QCD bound-states (onia) effects of the colored partners as well as the relevant electroweak processes, which become important in the low-mass region. We carefully set up the complete framework that incorporates the relevant contributions and investigate their effects on the cosmologically preferred mass spectrum, which turn out to be comparable in size to those coming from the Sommerfeld enhancement. We apply the calculation to three scenarios: bino-stop and bino-sbottom co-annihilations in supersymmetry and a vector dark matter co-annihilating with a fermionic top partner. In addition, we confront our analysis of the relic abundance with recent direct detection experiments and collider searches at the LHC, which have important implications in the bino-stop and bino-sbottom scenarios. In particular, in the bino-stop case, recent LHC limits have excluded regions of parameter space with a direct detection rate that is above the neutrino floor.

  16. The abundance of Kaluza-Klein dark matter with coannihilation

    SciTech Connect

    Burnell, Fiona; Kribs, Graham D.

    2006-01-01

    In universal extra dimension models, the lightest Kaluza-Klein (KK) particle is generically the first KK excitation of the photon and can be stable, serving as particle dark matter. We calculate the thermal relic abundance of the KK photon for a general mass spectrum of KK excitations including full coannihilation effects with all (level-one) KK excitations. We find that including coannihilation can significantly change the relic abundance when the coannihilating particles are within about 20% of the mass of the KK photon. Matching the relic abundance with cosmological data, we find the mass range of the KK photon is much wider than previously found, up to about 2 TeV if the masses of the strongly interacting level-one KK particles are within 5% of the mass of the KK photon. We also find cases where several coannihilation channels compete (constructively and destructively) with one another. The lower bound on the KK photon mass, about 540 GeV when just right-handed KK leptons coannihilate with the KK photon, relaxes upward by several hundred GeV when coannihilation with electroweak KK gauge bosons of the same mass is included.

  17. Coannihilation effects in supergravity and D-brane models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnowitt, R.; Dutta, B.; Santoso, Y.

    2001-07-01

    Coannihilation effects in neutralino relic density calculations are examined for a full range of supersymmetry parameters including large /tanβ and large A0 for stau, chargino, stop and sbottom coannihilation with the neutralino. Supergravity models possessing grand unification with universal soft breaking (mSUGRA), models with nonuniversal soft breaking in the Higgs and third generation sparticles, and D-brane models with nonuniversal gaugino masses were analysed. Unlike low /tanβ where m0 is generally small, stau coannihilation corridors with high /tanβ are highly sensitive to A0, and large A0 allows m0 to become as large as 1 TeV. Nonuniversal soft breaking models at high /tanβ also allow the opening of a new annihilation channel through the /s-channel /Z pole with acceptable relic density, allowing a new wide band in the m0-m1/2 plane with m1/2>~400 GeV and m0 rising to 1 TeV. The D-brane models considered possess stau coannihilations regions similar to mSUGRA, as well as small regions of chargino coannihilation. Neutralino-proton cross sections are analysed for all models and it is found that future detectors for halo wimps will be able to scan essentially the full parameter space with m1/2<1 TeV except for a region with /μ<0 where accidental cancellations occur when /5<~tanβ<~30. Analytic explanations of much of the above phenomena are given. The above analyses include current LEP bounds on the Higgs mass, large /tanβ NLO correction to the /b-->sγ decay, and large /tanβ SUSY corrections to the /b and /τ masses.

  18. Anatomy of coannihilation with a scalar top partner

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibarra, A.; Pierce, A.; Shah, N. R.; Vogl, S.

    2015-05-01

    We investigate a simplified model of dark matter where a Majorana fermion χ coannihilates with a colored scalar top partner t ˜. We explore the cosmological history, with particular emphasis on the most relevant low-energy parameters: the mass splitting between the dark matter and the coannihilator, and the Yukawa coupling yχ that connects these fields to the Standard Model top quarks. We also allow a free quartic coupling λh between a pair of Higgs bosons and t ˜ pairs. We pay special attention to the case where the values take on those expected where t ˜ corresponds to the superpartner of the right-handed top, and χ is a bino. Direct detection, indirect detection, and colliders are complementary probes of this simple model.

  19. Gluino coannihilation and observability of gluinos at LHC run II

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nath, Pran; Spisak, Andrew B.

    2016-05-01

    The observability of a gluino at LHC run II is analyzed for the case where the gluino lies in the gluino-neutralino coannihilation region and the mass gap between the gluino and the neutralino is small. The analysis is carried out under the Higgs boson mass constraint and the constraint of dark matter relic density consistent with WMAP and Planck experiments. It is shown that in this case a gluino with mass much smaller than the current lower limit of ˜1500 GeV as given by LHC run II at 3.2 fb-1 of integrated luminosity would have escaped detection. The analysis is done using the signal regions used by the ATLAS Collaboration where an optimization of signal regions was carried out to determine the best regions for gluino discovery in the gluino-neutralino coannihilation region. It is shown that under the Higgs boson mass constraint and the relic density constraint, a gluino mass of ˜700 GeV would require 14 fb-1 of integrated luminosity for discovery and a gluino of mass ˜1250 GeV would require 3400 fb-1 of integrated luminosity for discovery at LHC run II. An analysis of dark matter for this case is also given. It is found that for the range of gluino masses considered, the neutralino mass lies within less than 100 GeV of the gluino mass. Thus a measurement of the gluino mass in the gluino-neutralino coannihilation region will provide a determination of the neutralino mass. In this region the neutralino is dominantly a gaugino and the spin-independent proton-neutralino cross section is small but much larger than the neutrino floor lying in the range ˜(1 - 10 )×10-47 cm2 . Thus a significant part of the parameter space of the model will lie within the reach of the next generation LUX-ZEPLIN dark matter experiment.

  20. Stau coannihilation, compressed spectrum, and SUSY discovery potential at the LHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aboubrahim, Amin; Nath, Pran; Spisak, Andrew B.

    2017-06-01

    The lack of observation of supersymmetry thus far implies that the weak supersymmetry scale is larger than what was thought before the LHC era. This observation is strengthened by the Higgs boson mass measurement at ˜125 GeV , which within supersymmetric models implies a large loop correction and a weak supersymmetry scale lying in the several TeV region. In addition if neutralino is the dark matter, its relic density puts further constraints on models often requiring coannihilation to reduce the neutralino relic density to be consistent with experimental observation. The coannihilation in turn implies that the mass gap between the lightest supersymmetric particle and the next to lightest supersymmetric particle will be small, leading to softer final states and making the observation of supersymmetry challenging. In this work we investigate stau coannihilation models within supergravity grand unified models and the potential of discovery of such models at the LHC in the post-Higgs boson discovery era. We utilize a variety of signal regions to optimize the discovery of supersymmetry in the stau coannihilation region. In the analysis presented we impose the relic density constraint as well as the constraint of the Higgs boson mass. The range of sparticle masses discoverable up to the optimal integrated luminosity of the HL-LHC is investigated. It is found that the mass difference between the stau and the neutralino does not exceed ˜20 GeV over the entire mass range of the models explored. Thus the discovery of a supersymmetric signal arising from the stau coannihilation region will also provide a measurement of the neutralino mass. The direct detection of neutralino dark matter is analyzed within the class of stau coannihilation models investigated. The analysis is extended to include multiparticle coannihilation where stau along with chargino and the second neutralino enter into the coannihilation process.

  1. Scalar dark matter and fermion coannihilations in the radiative seesaw model

    SciTech Connect

    Klasen, Michael; Yaguna, Carlos E.; Ruiz-Álvarez, José D.; Restrepo, Diego; Zapata, Oscar E-mail: carlos.yaguna@uni-muenster.de E-mail: restrepo@udea.edu.co

    2013-04-01

    By extending the Standard Model with three right-handed neutrinos (N{sub i}) and a second Higgs doublet (H{sub 2}), odd under a Z{sub 2} symmetry, it is possible to explain non-zero neutrino masses and to account for the dark matter. We consider the case where the dark matter is a scalar and study its coannihilations with the right-handed neutrinos. These coannihilations tend to increase, rather than reduce, the dark matter density and they modify in a significant way the viable parameter space of the model. In particular, they allow to satisfy the relic density constraint for dark matter masses well below 500 GeV. The dependence of the relic density on the relevant parameters of the model, such as the dark matter mass, the mass splitting, and the number of coannihilating fermions, is analyzed in detail. We also investigate, via a scan over the parameter space, the new viable regions that are obtained when coannihilations are taken into account. Notably, they feature large indirect detection rates, with (σv) reaching values of order 10{sup −24}cm{sup 3}s{sup −1}. Finally, we emphasize that coannihilation effects analogous to those discussed here can be used to reconcile a thermal freeze-out with a large (σv) also in other models of dark matter.

  2. Analyzing the scalar top co-annihilation region at the ILC

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Finch, A.; Freitas, A.; Milstene, C.; Nowak, H.; Sopczak, A.; /Lancaster U.

    2005-08-01

    The Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model opens the possibility of electroweak baryogenesis provided that the light scalar top quark (stop) is lighter than the top quark. In addition, the lightest neutralino is an ideal candidate to explain the existence of dark matter. For a light stop with mass close to the lightest neutralino, the stop-neutralino co-annihilation mechanism becomes efficient, thus rendering the predicted dark matter density compatible with observations. Such a stop may however remain elusive at hadron colliders. Here it is shown that a future linear collider provides a unique opportunity to detect and study the light stop. The production of stops with small stop-neutralino mass differences is studied in a detailed experimental analysis with a realistic detector simulation including a CCD vertex detector for flavor tagging. Furthermore, the linear collider, by precision measurements of superpartner masses and mixing angles, also allows to determine the dark matter relic density with an accuracy comparable to recent astrophysical observations.

  3. Explaining PAMELA and WMAP data through coannihilations in extended SUGRA with collider implications

    SciTech Connect

    Feldman, Daniel; Nath, Pran; Nelson, Brent D.; Liu Zuowei

    2009-10-01

    The PAMELA positron excess is analyzed within the framework of nonuniversal supergravity (SUGRA) models with an extended U(1){sup n} gauge symmetry in the hidden sector leading to neutralino dark matter with either a mixed Higgsino-wino lightest R-parity odd supersymmetric particle (LSP) or an essentially pure wino-dominated LSP. The Higgsino-wino LSP can produce the observed PAMELA positron excess and satisfy relic density constraints in the extended class of models due to a near degeneracy of the mass spectrum of the extended neutralino sector with the LSP mass. The simultaneous satisfaction of the WMAP relic density data and the PAMELA data is accomplished through a coannihilation mechanism (B{sub Co}-mechanism), and leads to predictions of a neutralino and a chargino in the mass range (180-200) GeV as well as low-lying sparticles accessible at colliders. We show that the models are consistent with the antiproton constraints from PAMELA as well as the photon flux data from EGRET and FERMI-LAT. Predictions for the scalar neutralino-proton cross section relevant for the direct detection of dark matter are also discussed and signatures at the LHC for these PAMELA inspired models are analyzed. It is shown that the mixed Higgsino-wino LSP model will be discoverable with as little as 1 fb{sup -1} of data and is thus a prime candidate for discovery in the low luminosity runs at the LHC.

  4. Galactic-centre gamma rays in CMSSM dark matter scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, John; Olive, Keith A.; Spanos, Vassilis C. E-mail: olive@physics.umn.edu

    2011-10-01

    We study the production of γ rays via LSP annihilations in the core of the Galaxy as a possible experimental signature of the constrained minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (CMSSM), in which supersymmetry-breaking parameters are assumed to be universal at the GUT scale, assuming also that the LSP is the lightest neutralino χ. The part of the CMSSM parameter space that is compatible with the measured astrophysical density of cold dark matter is known to include a (τ-tilde {sub 1})−χ coannihilation strip, a focus-point strip where χ has an enhanced Higgsino component, and a funnel at large tan β where the annihilation rate is enhanced by the poles of nearby heavy MSSM Higgs bosons, A/H. We calculate the total annihilation rates, the fractions of annihilations into different Standard Model final states and the resulting fluxes of γ rays for CMSSM scenarios along these strips. We observe that typical annihilation rates are much smaller in the coannihilation strip for tan β = 10 than along the focus-point strip or for tan β = 55, and that the annihilation branching ratios differ greatly between the different dark matter strips. Whereas the current Fermi-LAT data are not sensitive to any of the CMSSM scenarios studied, and the calculated γ-ray fluxes are probably unobservably low along the coannihilation strip for tan β = 10, we find that substantial portions of the focus-point strips and rapid-annihilation funnel regions could be pressured by several more years of Fermi-LAT data, if understanding of the astrophysical background and/or systematic uncertainties can be improved in parallel.

  5. Stau detection at neutrino telescopes in scenarios with supersymmetric dark matter

    SciTech Connect

    Canadas, Beatriz; Cerdeno, David G.; Munoz, Carlos; Panda, Sukanta E-mail: cerdeno@delta.ft.uam.es E-mail: sukanta@iiserbhopal.ac.in

    2009-04-15

    We have studied the detection of long-lived staus at the IceCube neutrino telescope, after their production inside the Earth through the inelastic scattering of high energy neutrinos. The theoretical predictions for the stau flux are calculated in two scenarios in which the presence of long-lived staus is naturally associated to viable supersymmetric dark matter. Namely, we consider the cases with superWIMP (gravitino or axino) and neutralino dark matter (along the coannihilation region). In both scenarios the maximum value of the stau flux turns out to be about 1 event/yr in regions with a light stau. This is consistent with light gravitinos, with masses constrained by an upper limit which ranges from 0.2 to 15 GeV, depending on the stau mass. Likewise, it is compatible with axinos with a mass of about 1 GeV and a very low reheating temperature of order 100 GeV. In the case of the neutralino dark matter this favours regions with a low value of tan {beta}, for which the neutralino-stau coannihilation region occurs for smaller values of the stau mass. Finally, we study the case of a general supergravity theory and show how for specific choices of non-universal soft parameters the predicted stau flux can increase moderately.

  6. Arctic Planning Scenarios: Scenario #1: Defence Scenario

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-01

    ministre de la Défense nationale, 2011 Abstract With the change in northern climate over the past decade, current policy and media discussions have...scenarios, a scenario development methodology, and a Capability Inventory Tool (CIT) to identify and characterize legislation and policy on the Arctic, with...for Canada to be able to meet its strategy and policy objectives. Résumé Compte tenu des changements survenus dans le climat nordique au cours des

  7. Dark scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

    In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

  8. Scenario planning.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  9. Testing the CP-violating MSSM in stau decays at the LHC and ILC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dreiner, Herbi; Kittel, Olaf; Kulkarni, Suchita; Marold, Anja

    2011-05-01

    We study CP violation in the two-body decay of a scalar tau into a neutralino and a tau, which should be probed at the LHC and ILC. From the normal tau polarization, a CP asymmetry is defined which is sensitive to the CP phases of the trilinear scalar coupling parameter Aτ, the gaugino mass parameter M1, and the Higgsino mass parameter μ, in the stau-neutralino sector of the minimal supersymmetric standard model. Asymmetries of more than 70% are obtained in scenarios with strong stau mixing. As a result, detectable CP asymmetries in stau decays at the LHC are found, motivating further detailed experimental studies for probing the supersymmetry CP phases.

  10. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  11. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    PubMed

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  12. Mars base buildup scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

  13. GLOBAL ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    One way to examine possible future outcomes for environmental protection is through the development and analysis of alternative future scenarios. This type of assessment postulates two or more different paths that social and environmental development might take, using correspond...

  14. Emission scenarios: Explaining differences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2017-01-01

    Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimates to some of these assumptions.

  15. Attractive scenario writing.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Yuzo; Oku, Sachiko Alexandra

    2009-05-01

    This article describes the key steps of scenario writing to facilitate problem-based learning discussion to aid student learning of basic medical science in combination with clinical medicine. The scenario has to amplify and deepen the students' thinking so that they can correlate findings from the case and knowledge from textbooks. This can be achieved in three ways: (1) a comparison of cases; (2) demonstrating a scientific link between symptoms and basic medicine; and (3) introducing a personal and emotional aspect to the scenario. A comparison of two cases enables us to shed light on the pathological differences and think about the underlying biological mechanisms. These include: (a) a comparison of two cases with similar symptoms, but different diseases; (b) a comparison of two cases with different symptoms, but the same cause; and (c) a comparison of two cases, with an easy case, followed by a complicated case. The scenarios may be disclosed in a sequence to show a scientific link between symptoms of the patient and basic medicine, which may help to cultivate a physician with a scientific mind. Examples are given by the relationship between: (a) symptoms, pathology and morphology; and (b) symptoms, pathology and physiology. When the scenario is written in such a way that students are personally and/or emotionally involved in the case, they will be more motivated in learning as if involved in the case themselves. To facilitate this, the scenario can be written in the first-person perspective. Examples include "I had a very bad headache, and vomited several times...", and "I noticed that my father was screaming at night...". The description of the events may be in chronological order with actual time, which makes students feel as if they are really the primary responding person.

  16. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  17. Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  18. Characterization of maritime scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Low, Tom B.; Hudak, D. R.

    1992-09-01

    Meteorological modules were developed to describe characteristic maritime scenarios in various oceanic areas for DREV complimentarity studies of shipboard defense. The best means of depicting the maritime atmospheric environment was found to be on the basis of air mass analysis. A methodology was developed whereby, through a mixture of man-machine objective analysis of upper air radiosonde measurements at the 850, 700, and 500 mb levels, typical airmasses could be identified. Characteristic scenarios were then defined based on physical considerations of air mass theory. Utilizing an extensive 10-year set of worldwide radiosonde, ozondesonde, and surface observations collected from a combination of land-based stations, oceanographic buoys, and weather ships, frequency and correlation statistics of various global and derived meteorological and oceanographic parameters were established for the CANLANT, NORLANT, WESTLANT, EASTLANT, IBERLANT, MARPAC regions, the ARCTIC OCEAN to 85 degree(s)N, the BALTIC SEA, MEDITERRANEAN SEA, PERSIAN GULF, RED SEA, GULF OF OMAN, and the INDIAN OCEAN. These descriptions included atmospheric profiles of pressure, temperature, dewpoint and relative humidity, wind speeds and direction, refractivity index, and ozone concentration from the surface to approximately 20 km., as well as associated surface visibility, clouds and weather, sea state, and duct height conditions. Many of the derived parameters were found to be a strong function of the defining airmass scenarios. The spatial distribution of these scenarios was also determined.

  19. Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilkinson, Angela; Eidinow, Esther

    2008-10-01

    A new approach to scenarios focused on environmental concerns, changes and challenges, i.e. so-called 'environmental scenarios', is necessary if global environmental changes are to be more effectively appreciated and addressed through sustained and collaborative action. On the basis of a comparison of previous approaches to global environmental scenarios and a review of existing scenario typologies, we propose a new scenario typology to help guide scenario-based interventions. This typology makes explicit the types of and/or the approaches to knowledge ('the epistemologies') which underpin a scenario approach. Drawing on previous environmental scenario projects, we distinguish and describe two main types in this new typology: 'problem-focused' and 'actor-centric'. This leads in turn to our suggestion for a third type, which we call 'RIMA'—'reflexive interventionist or multi-agent based'. This approach to scenarios emphasizes the importance of the involvement of different epistemologies in a scenario-based process of action learning in the public interest. We suggest that, by combining the epistemologies apparent in the previous two types, this approach can create a more effective bridge between longer-term thinking and more immediate actions. Our description is aimed at scenario practitioners in general, as well as those who work with (environmental) scenarios that address global challenges.

  20. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  1. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    SciTech Connect

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  2. Repository preclosure accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yook, H.R.; Arbital, J.G.; Keeton, J.M.; Mosier, J.E.; Weaver, B.S.

    1984-09-01

    Waste-handling operations at a spent-fuel repository were investigated to identify operational accidents that could occur. The facility was subdivided, through systems engineering procedures, into individual operations that involve the waste and one specific component of the waste package, in one specific area of the handling facility. From this subdivision approximately 600 potential accidents involving waste package components were identified and then discussed. Supporting descriptive data included for each accident scenario are distance of drop, speed of collision, weight of package component, and weight of equipment involved. The energy of impact associated with each potential accident is calculated to provide a basis for comparison of the relative severities of all the accidents. The results and conclusions suggest approaches to accident consequence mitigation through waste package and facility design. 35 figures, 9 tables.

  3. Mission Scenario Development Workbench

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David; Mandutianu, Dan; Hooper, David

    2006-01-01

    The Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW) is a multidisciplinary performance analysis software tool for planning and optimizing space missions. It provides a number of new capabilities that are particularly useful for planning the surface activities on other planets. MSDW enables rapid planning of a space mission and supports flight system and scientific-instrumentation trades. It also provides an estimate of the ability of flight, ground, and science systems to meet high-level mission goals and provides means of evaluating expected mission performance at an early stage of planning in the project life cycle. In MSDW, activity plans and equipment-list spreadsheets are integrated with validated parameterized simulation models of spacecraft systems. In contrast to traditional approaches involving worst-case estimates with large margins, the approach embodied in MSDW affords more flexibility and more credible results early in the lifecycle through the use of validated, variable- fidelity models of spacecraft systems. MSDW is expected to help maximize the scientific return on investment for space missions by understanding early the performance required to have a successful mission while reducing the risk of costly design changes made at late stages in the project life cycle.

  4. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  5. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  6. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rieley, James

    Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By…

  7. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  8. Student Rights and Responsibilities Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peterson, Ludwig A.; And Others

    To stimulate interest in student's rights and responsibilities, this resource contains incomplete scenarios dealing with the consequences of knowing and not knowing the law, as it is applied to modern practical situations. The scenarios can be used in high school courses such as government, social problems, history, psychology, and business law.…

  9. Futures Scenario in Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

    2010-01-01

    In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

  10. Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

  11. Alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eldred, Charles H.; Roberts, Barney B.

    1992-01-01

    A collection of alternative scenarios that are enabled or substantially enhanced by the utilization of nonterrestrial resources is provided. We take a generalized approach to scenario building so that our report will have value in the context of whatever goals are eventually chosen. Some of the topics covered include the following: lunar materials processing; asteroid mining; lunar resources; construction of a large solar power station; solar dynamic power for the space station; reduced gravity; mission characteristics and options; and tourism.

  12. Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

  13. Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

    DOE Data Explorer

    Sullivan, John

    2014-03-14

    The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

  14. Haunted Quantum Entanglement: Two Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Douglas

    2010-04-01

    Two haunted quantum entanglement scenarios are proposed that are very close to the haunted measurement scenario in that: 1) the entity that is developing as a which-way marker is effectively restored to its state prior to its being fixed as a w-w marker, and 2) the entity for which the developing w-w marker provides information is restored to its state before it interacted with the entity which subsequent to the interaction begins developing as a w-w marker. In the hqe scenarios, the loss of developing w-w information through 1 relies on the loss of a developing entanglement. In scenario 1, the photon initially emitted in one of two micromaser cavities and developing into a w-w marker is effectively lost through the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities after the atom initially emits the photon into one of the micromaser cavities, exits the cavity system, and before this atom reaches the 2 slit screen. The atom is restored in both of the two new scenarios to its original state before it emitted a photon by an rf coil situated at the exit of the micromaser cavity system. In scenario 2, the cavity system and everything from the atom source forward to the cavity system is enclosed in an evacuated box. After the atom that emits the photon exits the cavity system and before it reaches the 2 slit screen, the cavity system opens (and the photon escapes in the evacuated box) and then the box is opened and the photon escapes into the environment.

  15. [Femicides: concepts, types and scenarios].

    PubMed

    Meneghel, Stela Nazareth; Portella, Ana Paula

    2017-09-01

    This text is a theoretical essay that discusses the concepts, types and scenarios of feminicides, and presents some proposals for the prevention of these premature, unjust and avoidable deaths. The text revisits the original concept of femicide proposed by Diana Russell and Jane Caputti and shows new and old scenarios where these crimes occur. It points to patriarchy, understood as being a hierarchical system of power between men and women, as one of the main determinants of these deaths. It ends by presenting actions and proposals to prevent and combat these gender crimes.

  16. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S.; Brandenberger, Robert; Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L.

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  17. Space resources. Volume 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mckay, Mary Fae (Editor); Mckay, David S. (Editor); Duke, Michael B. (Editor)

    1992-01-01

    A number of possible future paths for space exploration and development are presented. The topics covered include the following: (1) the baseline program; (2) alternative scenarios utilizing nonterrestrial resources; (3) impacts of sociopolitical conditions; (4) common technologies; and issues for further study.

  18. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kopnina, Helen

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are…

  19. Ultra-Perfect Sorting Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne; Swenson, Krister M.

    Perfection has been used as a criteria to select rearrangement scenarios since 2004. However, there is a fundamental bias towards extant species in the original definition: ancestral species are not bound to perfection. Here we develop a new theory of perfection that takes an egalitarian view of species, and apply it to the complex evolution of mammal chromosome X.

  20. Transportation scenarios for risk analysis.

    SciTech Connect

    Weiner, Ruth F.

    2010-09-01

    Transportation risk, like any risk, is defined by the risk triplet: what can happen (the scenario), how likely it is (the probability), and the resulting consequences. This paper evaluates the development of transportation scenarios, the associated probabilities, and the consequences. The most likely radioactive materials transportation scenario is routine, incident-free transportation, which has a probability indistinguishable from unity. Accident scenarios in radioactive materials transportation are of three different types: accidents in which there is no impact on the radioactive cargo, accidents in which some gamma shielding may be lost but there is no release of radioactive material, and accident in which radioactive material may potentially be released. Accident frequencies, obtainable from recorded data validated by the U.S. Department of Transportation, are considered equivalent to accident probabilities in this study. Probabilities of different types of accidents are conditional probabilities, conditional on an accident occurring, and are developed from event trees. Development of all of these probabilities and the associated highway and rail accident event trees are discussed in this paper.

  1. Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

    2015-01-01

    The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

  2. A Native American exposure scenario.

    PubMed

    Harris, S G; Harper, B L

    1997-12-01

    EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS) and later documents provide guidance for estimating exposures received from suburban and agricultural activity patterns and lifestyles. However, these methods are not suitable for typical tribal communities whose members pursue, at least in part, traditional lifestyles. These lifestyles are derived from a long association with all of the resources in a particular region. We interviewed 35 members of a Columbia River Basin tribe to develop a lifestyle-based subsistence exposure scenario that represents a midrange exposure that a traditional tribal member would receive. This scenario provides a way to partially satisfy Executive Order 12,898 on environmental justice, which requires a specific evaluation of impacts from federal actions to peoples with subsistence diets. Because a subsistence diet is only a portion of what is important to a traditional lifestyle, we also used information obtained from the interviews to identify parameters for evaluating impacts to environmental and sociocultural quality of life.

  3. [Eukaryotes origin: a new scenario].

    PubMed

    Gonchikov, G G

    2010-01-01

    A new scenario of eukaryotes origin is proposed that explains the cytoskeleton genesis, and the genesis of cell nucleus as a "cell within cell" structure. The scenario is based on the peculiarities of spore-forming firmicutes life cycle and structure, unique for prokaryotes. It is supposed that a euryarchaeon cell was engulfed by a "bare" sporangium of an ancient polyendosporogenic and endoskeletal clostridia, bearer of microtubular endospore appendages, in the process of "abortive" forespore engulfment. In the result, a new driving force for cell transitions was formed, associated with compartmentalization of prokaryotic chromosomes. Further recombination of chromosomes induced two transitions: transformation of euryarchaeon into true cell nucleus, and transformation of microtubular endospore appendages into nucleus mitotic apparatus. In-cell reproducing organelles, such as mitochondrion and plastids, appeared later. Forthcoming full-genome studies of endoskeletal firmicutes, bearers of microtubular endospore appendages, and some eukaryotes may help to reveal the mystery of the first true nuclear cell origin.

  4. Designing Asteroid Impact Scenario Trajectories

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chodas, Paul

    2016-05-01

    In order to study some of the technical and geopolitical issues of dealing with an asteroid on impact trajectory, a number of hypothetical impact scenarios have been presented over the last ten years or so. These have been used, for example, at several of the Planetary Defense Conferences (PDCs), as well as in tabletop exercises with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), along with other government agencies. The exercise at the 2015 PDC involved most of the attendees, consisted of seven distinct steps (“injects”), and with all the presentations and discussions, took up nearly 10 hours of conference time. The trajectory for the PDC15 scenario was entirely realistic, and was posted ahead of the meeting. It was made available in the NEO Program’s Horizons ephemeris service so that users could , for example, design their own deflection missions. The simulated asteroid and trajectory had to meet numerous very exacting requirements: becoming observable on the very first day of the conference, yet remaining very difficult to observe for the following 7 years, and far enough away from Earth that it was out of reach of radar until just before impact. It had to be undetectable in the past, and yet provide multiple perihelion opportunities for deflection in the future. It had to impact in a very specific region of the Earth, a specific number of years after discovery. When observations of the asteroid are simulated to generate an uncertainty region, that entire region must impact the Earth along an axis that cuts across specific regions of the Earth, the “risk corridor”. This is important because asteroid deflections generally move an asteroid impact point along this corridor. One scenario had a requirement that the asteroid pass through a keyhole several years before impact. The PDC15 scenario had an additional constraint that multiple simulated kinetic impactor missions altered the trajectory at a deflection point midway between discovery and impact

  5. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  6. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    SciTech Connect

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  7. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  8. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  9. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  10. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  11. The ShakeOut Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  12. Superclustering in the explosion scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinberg, David H.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Dekel, Avishai

    1989-01-01

    A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.

  13. Superclustering in the explosion scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weinberg, David H.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.; Dekel, Avishai

    1989-01-01

    A simple toy model is used to study the spatial distribution of rich clusters in a generic type of explosion scenario. The model, parameterized by the distribution of shell radii and the filling factor, places spherical shells at random and identifies each 'knot' as a cluster. The resulting cluster correlation function is close to a power law extending to the diameter of the largest spheres. Richer clusters form at the intersections of bigger shells and so have stronger correlations. Typical shell radii and filling factors are required to produce the observed number density of clusters. Models with a power-law radius distribution also reproduce the richness distribution of clusters in the Abell catalog. Supercluster multiplicity functions, void probabilities, number counts, topology statistics, and velocity correlations confirm the presence of strong superclustering and quantify the non-Gaussian nature of the model.

  14. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  15. Toward XML Representation of NSS Simulation Scenario for Mission Scenario Exchange Capability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-09-01

    Combat XXI Program...........................13 2. Transition NSS to a Java Environment ...........................................13 3. Shift to an...and Reconnaissance IV&V Independent Verification and Validation xvi JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff JDOM Java Document Object Model...Scenario .xml NSS Simulation Scenario .xsd NSS Simulation Scenario . java NSS Simulation Scenario Text ? XML .xslt NSS Simulation

  16. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  17. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  18. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    DOE PAGES

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

  19. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  20. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

    PubMed

    Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  1. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

    2015-08-29

    Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

  2. The narcissistic scenarios of parenthood.

    PubMed

    Manzano, J; Palacio Espasa, F; Zilkha, N

    1999-06-01

    The authors begin by pointing out that Freud always considered parent-child relations in terms of the child's psychic development and took little account of the parents' experience of the relationship and its psychic effects on them. They recall Freud's distinction between the anaclitic and narcissistic modes of relationship and show how these are unconsciously embodied and enacted in varying proportions in the cases observed in their own clinical practice of therapeutic consultations with parents and young children. After a review of the relevant psychoanalytic literature, the authors present their concept of the narcissistic scenarios of parenthood, which include parental projection on to the child, parental counter-identification, a specific aim and a relational dynamic that is acted out. Depending on the individual situation, the effects may help to structure the developing psyche or, if the narcissistic element is excessive, they may be pathological. The authors consider the literature on the application of psychoanalysis to therapeutic interventions with parents and children, stressing the technical importance of establishing a therapeutic focus. These ideas are illustrated by a detailed case history showing the interaction between a mother and a 4-year-old girl and how it was modified by a short therapy. The differences between interpretation in this situation and in the classical psychoanalytic setting are explained, and the paper ends with some comments on the transmission of psychic elements from generation to generation.

  3. Agricultural Baseline (BL0) scenario

    DOE Data Explorer

    Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinckel, Chad M [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154)

    2016-07-13

    Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the reference case for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios. The agricultural baseline runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used. Date the data set was last modified: 02/12/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: simulation was developed without offering a farmgate price to energy crops or residues (i.e., building on both the USDA 2015 baseline and the agricultural census data (USDA NASS 2014). Data generated are .txt output files by year, simulation identifier, county code (1-3109). Instruments used: POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B) supplied by the University of Tennessee APAC The quality assurance and quality control that have been applied: • Check for negative planted area, harvested area, production, yield and cost values. • Check if harvested area exceeds planted area for annuals. • Check FIPS codes.

  4. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  5. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  6. MIOSAT Mission Scenario and Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agostara, C.; Dionisio, C.; Sgroi, G.; di Salvo, A.

    2008-08-01

    MIOSAT ("Mssione Ottica su microSATellite") is a low-cost technological / scientific microsatellite mission for Earth Observation, funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI) and managed by a Group Agreement between Rheinmetall Italia - B.U. Spazio - Contraves as leader and Carlo Gavazzi Space as satellite manufacturer. Several others Italians Companies, SME and Universities are involved in the development team with crucial roles. MIOSAT is a microsatellite weighting around 120 kg and placed in a 525 km altitude sun-synchronuos circular LEO orbit. The microsatellite embarks three innovative optical payloads: Sagnac multi spectral radiometer (IFAC-CNR), Mach Zehender spectrometer (IMM-CNR), high resolution pancromatic camera (Selex Galileo). In addition three technological experiments will be tested in-flight. The first one is an heat pipe based on Marangoni effect with high efficiency. The second is a high accuracy Sun Sensor using COTS components and the last is a GNSS SW receiver that utilizes a Leon2 processor. Finally a new generation of 28% efficiency solar cells will be adopted for the power generation. The platform is highly agile and can tilt along and cross flight direction. The pointing accuracy is in the order of 0,1° for each axe. The pointing determination during images acquisition is <0,02° for the axis normal to the boresight and 0,04° for the boresight. This paper deals with MIOSAT mission scenario and definition, highlighting trade-offs for mission implementation. MIOSAT mission design has been constrained from challenging requirements in terms of satellite mass, mission lifetime, instrument performance, that have implied the utilization of satellite agility capability to improve instruments performance in terms of S/N and resolution. The instruments provide complementary measurements that can be combined in effective ways to exploit new applications in the fields of atmosphere composition analysis, Earth emissions, antropic phenomena, etc. The Mission

  7. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    PubMed

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  8. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  9. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  10. Scenarios and decisionmaking for complex environmental systems

    Treesearch

    Stephen R. Carpenter; Adena R. Rissman

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are used for expanding the scope of imaginable outcomes considered by assessments, planning exercises, or research projects on social-ecological systems. We discuss a global case study, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, and a regional project for an urbanizing agricultural watershed. Qualitative and quantitative aspects of scenarios are complementary....

  11. Multimedia Scenario in a Primary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nulden, Urban; Ward, Bodil

    2002-01-01

    Multimedia as an educational technology tool is used throughout the educational system. In this article we present a research project where multimedia scenario was used to initiate a discussion about Internet use among students and teachers at a primary school. Multimedia scenario is the use of large screen multimedia to initiate and facilitate…

  12. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  13. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  14. Eight Scenarios for Work in the Future.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morf, Martin

    1983-01-01

    Changes in society and technology could bring a broad variety of possible futures, as these eight scenarios of the world of work show. The scenarios depict what we can expect if technology continues to progress and reduce the number of jobs available. Future work may be challenging and profitable. (NW)

  15. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  16. Architectures for Developing Multiuser, Immersive Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nadolski, Rob J.; Hummel, Hans G. K.; Slootmaker, Aad; van der Vegt, Wim

    2012-01-01

    Multiuser immersive learning scenarios hold strong potential for lifelong learning as they can support the acquisition of higher order skills in an effective, efficient, and attractive way. Existing virtual worlds, game development platforms, and game engines only partly cater for the proliferation of such learning scenarios as they are often…

  17. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  18. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  19. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  20. Writing clinical scenarios for clinical science questions.

    PubMed

    Smith, Phil Em; Mucklow, John C

    2016-04-01

    Written knowledge assessments for physicians in training typically involve multiple-choice questions that use a clinical scenario in a single-best-answer format. The Royal College of Physicians Part 1 MRCP(UK) examination includes basic sciences themes that are challenging to assess through a clinical scenario. A realistic clinical setting based on everyday clinical practice and integral to the question is the clearest demonstration that the knowledge being assessed is clinically relevant. However, without special attention to detail, the scenario in a clinical science question can appear redundant or artificial. Reading unnecessary material frustrates candidates and threatens the reputation of the assessment. In this paper we discuss why a clinical scenario is important for basic science questions and offer advice on setting realistic and plausible clinical scenarios for such questions.

  1. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  2. Scripting Scenarios for the Human Patient Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bacal, Kira; Miller, Robert; Doerr, Harold

    2004-01-01

    The Human Patient Simulator (HPS) is particularly useful in providing scenario-based learning which can be tailored to fit specific scenarios and which can be modified in realtime to enhance the teaching environment. Scripting these scenarios so as to maximize learning requires certain skills, in order to ensure that a change in student performance, understanding, critical thinking, and/or communication skills results. Methods: A "good" scenario can be defined in terms of applicability, learning opportunities, student interest, and clearly associated metrics. Obstacles to such a scenario include a lack of understanding of the applicable environment by the scenario author(s), a desire (common among novices) to cover too many topics, failure to define learning objectives, mutually exclusive or confusing learning objectives, unskilled instructors, poor preparation , disorganized approach, or an inappropriate teaching philosophy (such as "trial by fire" or education through humiliation). Results: Descriptions of several successful teaching programs, used in the military, civilian, and NASA medical environments , will be provided, along with sample scenarios. Discussion: Simulator-based lessons have proven to be a time- and cost-efficient manner by which to educate medical personnel. Particularly when training for medical care in austere environments (pre-hospital, aeromedical transport, International Space Station, military operations), the HPS can enhance the learning experience.

  3. Common Criteria Based Security Scenario Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohnishi, Atsushi

    Software is required to comply with the laws and standards of software security. However, stakeholders with less concern regarding security can neither describe the behaviour of the system with regard to security nor validate the system’s behaviour when the security function conflicts with usability. Scenarios or use-case specifications are common in requirements elicitation and are useful to analyze the usability of the system from a behavioural point of view. In this paper, the authors propose both (1) a scenario language based on a simple case grammar and (2) a method to verify a scenario with rules based on security evaluation criteria.

  4. Vocational training: the case scenario workshop.

    PubMed

    Winter-Moore, P H

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the procedure for conducting a workshop for a vocational training group, using six clinical case scenarios harvested from the vocational training group's own experience. During the session, the main group (which includes trainers) breaks up into smaller groups to discuss the management of each case, then a spokesperson presents the management solutions back to the re-assembled larger group: further interaction and discussion then takes place. This article discusses six typical case scenarios from a recent workshop. The case scenario workshop is an exciting way to encourage discussion and interaction with all parties involved.

  5. Interactive specification acquisition via scenarios: A proposal

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hall, Robert J.

    1992-01-01

    Some reactive systems are most naturally specified by giving large collections of behavior scenarios. These collections not only specify the behavior of the system, but also provide good test suites for validating the implemented system. Due to the complexity of the systems and the number of scenarios, however, it appears that automated assistance is necessary to make this software development process workable. Interactive Specification Acquisition Tool (ISAT) is a proposed interactive system for supporting the acquisition and maintenance of a formal system specification from scenarios, as well as automatic synthesis of control code and automated test generation. This paper discusses the background, motivation, proposed functions, and implementation status of ISAT.

  6. Connecting measurement invasiveness to optimal metrological scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira, Saulo V.; Adesso, Gerardo; Correa, Luis A.; Coudreau, Thomas; Keller, Arne; Milman, Pérola

    2017-07-01

    The connection between the Leggett-Garg inequality and optimal scenarios from the point of view of quantum metrology is investigated for perfect and noisy general dichotomic measurements. In this context, we show that the Fisher information can be expressed in terms of quantum temporal correlations. This connection allows us to associate scenarios with relatively high Fisher information to scenarios in which the Leggett-Garg inequality is violated. We thus demonstrate a qualitative and, to some extent, quantitative link between measurement invasiveness and metrological performance. Finally, we illustrate our results by using a specific model for spin systems.

  7. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  8. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016965 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  9. Kondratyev and Skripochka during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016976 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonauts Dmitry Kondratyev (left) and Oleg Skripochka, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, look over a procedures manual during an emergency scenarios drill in the Harmony node of the International Space Station.

  10. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016970 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (right) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  11. Nespoli and Kaleri during emergency scenario drill

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2011-01-11

    ISS026-E-016963 (11 Jan. 2011) --- Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri (foreground) and European Space Agency astronaut Paolo Nespoli, both Expedition 26 flight engineers, participate in an emergency scenarios drill in the Kibo laboratory of the International Space Station.

  12. Scenarios for the Evolution of Asteroid Belts

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2012-11-01

    This illustration shows three possible scenarios for the evolution of asteroid belts. At the top, a Jupiter-size planet migrates through the asteroid belt, scattering material and inhibiting the formation of life on planets.

  13. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CHANGE IN WILDLIFE HABITAT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Studies in Pennsylvania, Iowa, California, and Oregon show varying losses of terrestrial wildlife habitat in scenarios based on different assumptions about future human land use patterns. Retrospective estimates of losses of habitat since Euro-American settlement in several stud...

  14. Development and Validation of Videotaped Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Noel, Nora E.; Maisto, Stephen A.; Johnson, James D.; Jackson, Lee A.; Goings, Christopher D.; Hagman, Brett T.

    2013-01-01

    Researchers using scenarios often neglect to validate perceived content and salience of embedded stimuli specifically with intended participants, even when such meaning is integral to the study. For example, sex and aggression stimuli are heavily influenced by culture, so participants may not perceive what researchers intended in sexual aggression scenarios. Using four studies, the authors describe the method of scenario validation to produce two videos assessing alcohol-related sexual aggression. Both videos are identical except for the presence in one video of antiforce cues that are extremely salient to the young heterosexual men. Focus groups and questionnaires validate these men's perceptions that (a) the woman was sexually interested, (b) the sexual cues were salient, (c) the antiforce cues were salient (antiaggression video only), and (e) these antiforce cues inhibited acceptance of forced sex. Results show the value of carefully selecting and validating content when assessing socially volatile variables and provide a useful template for developing culturally valid scenarios. PMID:18252938

  15. Combination of Face Regions in Forensic Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Tome, Pedro; Fierrez, Julian; Vera-Rodriguez, Ruben; Ortega-Garcia, Javier

    2015-07-01

    This article presents an experimental analysis of the combination of different regions of the human face on various forensic scenarios to generate scientific knowledge useful for the forensic experts. Three scenarios of interest at different distances are considered comparing mugshot and CCTV face images using MORPH and SC face databases. One of the main findings is that inner facial regions combine better in mugshot and close CCTV scenarios and outer facial regions combine better in far CCTV scenarios. This means, that depending of the acquisition distance, the discriminative power of the facial regions change, having in some cases better performance than the full face. This effect can be exploited by considering the fusion of facial regions which results in a very significant improvement of the discriminative performance compared to just using the full face. © 2015 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  16. Visualizing Risks: Icons for Information Attack Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2000-10-01

    Visualizing Risks : Icons for Information Attack Scenarios Hilary H. Hosmer Data Security, Inc. Bedford, MA 01730 Email: hosmer@datasecinc.com...and omissions, thus speeding up risk analysis, requirements gathering, safeguard selection, cryptographic protocol analysis, and INFOSEC training...

  17. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) assesses the performance with which models predict time series data. The tool was developed Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) and the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM)

  18. Workforce management strategies in a disaster scenario.

    SciTech Connect

    Kelic, Andjelka; Turk, Adam L.

    2008-08-01

    A model of the repair operations of the voice telecommunications network is used to study labor management strategies under a disaster scenario where the workforce is overwhelmed. The model incorporates overtime and fatigue functions and optimizes the deployment of the workforce based on the cost of the recovery and the time it takes to recover. The analysis shows that the current practices employed in workforce management in a disaster scenario are not optimal and more strategic deployment of that workforce is beneficial.

  19. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications

    PubMed Central

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2014-01-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments. PMID:25197207

  20. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    PubMed

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  1. Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    Using the prototype repository, the user can access and download each scenario through a hyperlink. The database administrator (DBA) has the option to...handle user security, upload and download of scenarios, message boards, blogs, wikis, or a scenario rating system; all of these features have been...file [AccessRuntime.EXE] from the CD or download it from the Microsoft Download Center. 7 There are no other system requirements, given the small

  2. Model sustainability in DSS design and scenario formulation: what are the right scenarios?

    PubMed

    Schreider SYu; Mostovaia, A D

    2001-09-01

    A concept of the integrated approach in designing multidisciplinary decision support systems (DSS) based on agricultural scenarios for sustainable catchment management is discussed. A principle of holism underlying the integrated approach to DSS design is formulated. For a model to be viable and sustainable, it should be based on scenarios that are plausible and highly typical from the point of view of those 'doing' agriculture. Problems concerning principles of scenario formulation within the integrated approach are considered. A notion of 'prototype' scenarios based on 'joint venture' of modellers and stakeholders is proposed.

  3. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  4. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  5. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  6. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-10-01

    This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  7. Scenario development in China's electricity sector

    SciTech Connect

    Steenhof, P.A.; Fulton, W.

    2007-07-15

    The continuing growth of China's electricity sector will affect global environmental and economic sustainability due to its impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and global resource depletion. In 2005, the generation of electricity in China resulted in the emissions of 2290 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (approximately 53% of the nation's total) and required 779 million metric tonnes of coal (approximately 50% of China's total coal consumption). These figures are expected to increase with China's economic growth. In order to gauge the range in which fuel consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions could grow a scenario-based conceptual model has been developed by the authors (published in this journal). The application and analysis of this shows that under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, electricity generation could contribute upwards of 56% of China's energy related greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. Meanwhile, consumption of coal will also increase, growing to nearly 60% of total national demand by 2020. However, variations in a number of key drivers could produce significant deviation from the BAU scenario. With accelerated economic output, even with greater technological advances and greater potential to bring natural gas on stream, carbon dioxide emissions would rise 10% above the BAU. Alternatively, in a scenario where China's economy grows at a tempered pace, less investment would be available for advanced technologies, developing natural gas infrastructure, or nuclear energy. In this scenario, reduced economic growth and electricity demand would thereby be countered by reduced efficiency and a higher contribution of coal.

  8. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  9. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  10. Nuclear Futures Analysis and Scenario Building

    SciTech Connect

    Arthur, E.D.; Beller, D.; Canavan, G.H.; Krakowski, R.A.; Peterson, P.; Wagner, R.L.

    1999-07-09

    This LDRD project created and used advanced analysis capabilities to postulate scenarios and identify issues, externalities, and technologies associated with future ''things nuclear''. ''Things nuclear'' include areas pertaining to nuclear weapons, nuclear materials, and nuclear energy, examined in the context of future domestic and international environments. Analysis tools development included adaptation and expansion of energy, environmental, and economics (E3) models to incorporate a robust description of the nuclear fuel cycle (both current and future technology pathways), creation of a beginning proliferation risk model (coupled to the (E3) model), and extension of traditional first strike stability models to conditions expected to exist in the future (smaller force sizes, multipolar engagement environments, inclusion of actual and latent nuclear weapons (capability)). Accomplishments include scenario development for regional and global nuclear energy, the creation of a beginning nuclear architecture designed to improve the proliferation resistance and environmental performance of the nuclear fuel cycle, and numerous results for future nuclear weapons scenarios.

  11. Creating a Scenario Suitable for Multiple Caregivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doerr, Harold; Bacal, Kira; Hurst, Victor

    2004-01-01

    The HPS can be utilized for the training of a wide variety of caregivers, ranging from physicians to laypeople. Methods: A single scenario was developed and adapted for a number of clinical scenarios and operational environments, ranging from in-flight to the immediate postflight timeline. In this way, different caregivers, from astronauts to search and rescue forces to specialty-boarded physicians, could make use of a single clinical situation. Five crew medical officer analogs and sixty anesthesia residents, serving as flight surgeon analogs, and, were briefed on space medicine and physiology, then were exposed to the scenario and asked to manage the patient as if they were part of the in-flight or recovery team. Results: Basic themes, such as crisis resource management, were standard across the student audiences. Discussion: A single clinical script can easily be adapted for multiple uses.

  12. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    PubMed

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  13. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  14. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  15. When things do not go as expected: scenario life savers.

    PubMed

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, Anne; Glavin, Ronnie; Rall, Marcus

    2010-08-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants.

  16. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  17. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  18. Using Scenarios and Simulations to Plan Colleges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McIntyre, Chuck

    2004-01-01

    Using a case study, this article describes a method by which higher education institutions construct and use multiple future scenarios and simulations to plan strategically: to create visions of their futures, chart broad directions (mission and goals), and select learning and delivery strategies so as to achieve those broad directions. The…

  19. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis L.; Prescott, Steven; Ryan, Emerald; Calhoun, Donna; Sampath, Ramprasad; Anderson, S. Danielle; Casteneda, Cody

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  20. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  1. Chemical Data Reporting Byproduct and Recycling Scenarios

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This document addresses a series of 18 industry scenarios and questions related to EPA’s Chemical Data Reporting (CDR) rule. The primary goal of this document is to help the regulated community comply with the requirements of the CDR rule.

  2. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-08

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  3. Probabilistic Simulation of Territorial Seismic Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baratta, Alessandro; Corbi, Ileana

    2008-07-01

    The paper is focused on a stochastic process for the prevision of seismic scenarios on the territory and developed by means of some basic assumptions in the procedure and by elaborating the fundamental parameters recorded during some ground motions occurred in a seismic area.

  4. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  5. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  6. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These "futures" are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of…

  7. Risk Appraisal in Scripted Acquaintance Rape Scenarios.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright, Doris J.

    Cognitive appraisals are believed to influence how women judge or appraise risk in acquaintance interactions which lead to sexual assault. Ways in which men and women judge the presence of risk factors in scripted acquaintance rape scenarios, and whether alcohol was a significant factor in assessing risk, are examined in this paper. Participants…

  8. Interactive, multiobjective Bayesian optimization of tokamak scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Urban, Jakub; Artaud, Jean-François

    2016-10-01

    Bayesian optimization is applied to tokamak scenario optimizations. The key advantages are 1) a reduced number of objective function evaluations, 2) no need for derivatives, and 3) the possibility to include a prior knowledge. This is of a great value for optimizing tokamak scenarios, where several (competing) objectives with often unknown magnitudes exist and the number of parameters is large (>10). The first two properties imply that Bayesian optimization is well suited for heavy, complex objective functions. Reusing previous iterations as priors for next optimization steps effectively enables interactive, multiobjective optimizations, regardless of whether a human decision maker is included or not. We show that these features make Bayesian optimization an outstanding tool for optimizing tokamak scenarios. Objective functions and constraints, targeting, e.g., fusion gain, flux consumption, coils currents limits or q-profile, can be assembled interactively. The optimized parameter vector may include actuators like plasma current or heating waveforms. We demonstrate the capabilities on optimizing ITER and DEMO-like scenarios, simulated by the METIS code.

  9. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-07-10

    valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 01 OCT 2003 2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Scenario Development for...country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is

  10. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  11. Biomass round bales infield aggregation logistic scenarios

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Biomass bales often need to be aggregated (collected into groups and transported) to a field-edge stack for temporary storage for feedlots or processing facilities. Aggregating the bales with the least total distance involved is a goal of producers and bale handlers. Several logistics scenarios for ...

  12. Ethics Scenarios: A Critical Theory Symposium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jane; And Others

    This symposium chaired by John C. Belland addressed the ethical position of educational communications and technology in society. Presenters created ethics scenarios and applied critical theory to provide insight. Intended to stimulate questions, the approach was philosophical, literary, and sociopolitical, and reflected Derrida, Foucault, and…

  13. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  14. Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoades, Daren

    2006-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

  15. Competency-Based Teacher Education: A Scenario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Wilford A.; Cooper, James M.

    This fictitious scenario embodies all the characteristics and dimensions for a fully developed competency-based teacher education program envisioned by the authors. A single program and its implications for students, faculty, and the institution are presented. Specific areas of the program covered 1) a fundamental description of the competency…

  16. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  17. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  18. Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edmonds, J.

    2013-12-01

    A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

  19. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    DOE PAGES

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem thatmore » is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.« less

  20. Generating moment matching scenarios using optimization techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Mehrotra, Sanjay; Papp, Dávid

    2013-05-16

    An optimization based method is proposed to generate moment matching scenarios for numerical integration and its use in stochastic programming. The main advantage of the method is its flexibility: it can generate scenarios matching any prescribed set of moments of the underlying distribution rather than matching all moments up to a certain order, and the distribution can be defined over an arbitrary set. This allows for a reduction in the number of scenarios and allows the scenarios to be better tailored to the problem at hand. The method is based on a semi-infinite linear programming formulation of the problem that is shown to be solvable with polynomial iteration complexity. A practical column generation method is implemented. The column generation subproblems are polynomial optimization problems; however, they need not be solved to optimality. It is found that the columns in the column generation approach can be efficiently generated by random sampling. The number of scenarios generated matches a lower bound of Tchakaloff's. The rate of convergence of the approximation error is established for continuous integrands, and an improved bound is given for smooth integrands. Extensive numerical experiments are presented in which variants of the proposed method are compared to Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods on both numerical integration problems and stochastic optimization problems. The benefits of being able to match any prescribed set of moments, rather than all moments up to a certain order, is also demonstrated using optimization problems with 100-dimensional random vectors. Here, empirical results show that the proposed approach outperforms Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo based approaches on the tested problems.

  1. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  2. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  3. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    DOE PAGES

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    SciTech Connect

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-28

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  5. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  6. Research on Digitized Scenario for Tactical Internet Simulative Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, Jian-Jun; Tian, Hua; Gan, Zhi-Chun

    The scenario of Tactical Internet simulative training can't be realized directly through the scenario systems and methods in existence. For solving this problem, firstly this paper introduced the new concept called digitized scenario, which can describe the meaning of scenario more exactly than the old simulation scenario. Secondly, this paper constructed the framework of digitized scenario, and it settled such issues as composition of digitized scenario system, scenario generating flow and data architecture. Thirdly, this paper built up the general data model for script situation, and it settled the problem of situation setting. Finally, this paper proposed the method of describing scenario files based on eXtensible Markup Language (XML), and it settled such problems as generation, verification and distribution of scenario files. The paper's work has been applied in the Tactical Internet simulative training system, and it also has good directive value to the developing of other communication network simulative training system.

  7. River multimodal scenario for rehabilitation robotics.

    PubMed

    Munih, Marko; Novak, Domen; Milavec, Maja; Ziherl, Jaka; Olenšek, Andrej; Mihelj, Matjaž

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the novel "River" multimodal rehabilitation robotics scenario that includes video, audio and haptic modalities. Elements contributing to intrinsic motivation are carefully joined in the three modalities to increase motivation of the user. The user first needs to perform a motor action, then receives a cognitive challenge that is solved with adequate motor activity. Audio includes environmental sounds, music and spoken instructions or encouraging statements. Sounds and music were classified according to the arousal-valence space. The haptic modality can provide catching, grasping, tunnel or adaptive assistance, all depending on the user's needs. The scenario was evaluated in 16 stroke users, who responded to it favourably according to the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory questionnaire. Additionally, the river multimodal environment seems to elicit higher motivation than a simpler apple pick-and-place multimodal task. © 2011 IEEE

  8. Thermodynamical interpretation of gravity in braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sheykhi, Ahmad

    2009-05-15

    We study the thermodynamical properties of the apparent horizon in the various braneworld scenarios. First, we show that the Friedmann equations can be written directly in the form of the first law of thermodynamics, dE = T{sub h}dS{sub h}+WdV, at apparent horizon on the brane, regardless of whether there is the intrinsic curvature term on the brane or a Gauss-Bonnet term in the bulk. This procedure leads to extract an entropy expression in terms of horizon geometry associated with the apparent horizon. Then, we examine the time evolution of the total entropy, including the derived entropy of the apparent horizon and the entropy of the matter fields inside the apparent horizon. We find that the derived entropy of the apparent horizon on the brane satisfies the generalized second law of thermodynamics in braneworld scenarios. These results further support the idea that gravitation on a macroscopic scale is a manifestation of thermodynamics.

  9. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    PubMed

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  10. Effective scenario of loop quantum cosmology.

    PubMed

    Ding, You; Ma, Yongge; Yang, Jinsong

    2009-02-06

    Semiclassical states in isotropic loop quantum cosmology are employed to show that the improved dynamics has the correct classical limit. The effective Hamiltonian for the quantum cosmological model with a massless scalar field is thus obtained, which incorporates also the next to leading order quantum corrections. The possibility that the higher order correction terms may lead to significant departure from the leading order effective scenario is revealed. If the semiclassicality of the model is maintained in the large scale limit, there are great possibilities for a k=0 Friedmann expanding universe to undergo a collapse in the future due to the quantum gravity effect. Thus the quantum bounce and collapse may contribute a cyclic universe in the new scenario.

  11. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector

    PubMed Central

    NAG, Anjali; VYAS, Heer; NAG, Pranab

    2016-01-01

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector. PMID:26903262

  12. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  13. NOAA Regional Sea Level Trends and Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sweet, W.; Zervas, C.; Leuliette, E. W.

    2016-12-01

    NOAA has a new website to help coastal communities recognize past changes in regional sea level to better plan for a range of possible rise scenarios this century. The site compares 11 regionalized and coherent tide-gauge and satellite-altimeter sea level series from around the U.S. to estimate multi-decadal changes that have occurred in response to regional sea surface height-related trends and variability. Local relative trends are obtainable even without data from a local tide gauge when combined with estimates of vertical land motion, which can be obtained from several years of record from a GPS-based continuously operating reference system (CORS). The regionalized series will be updated annually and displayed relative to the most recent sea level rise scenarios of the (i.e., 2014) National Climate Assessment to characterize the regional sea level change trajectory for future planning of associated impacts.

  14. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  15. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vuuren, Detlef; Kriegler, Elmar; O'Neill, Brian; Ebi, Kristie L.; Riahi, Keywan; Carter, Tim; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kram, Tom; Mathur, Ritu; Winkler, Harald

    2014-02-01

    In this paper, we present the scenario matrix architecture as part of the new scenario framework for climate change research. The matrix architecture focuses on a key question of current climate research, namely the identification of trade-offs and synergies (in terms of risks, costs and other consequences) of different adaptation and mitigation strategies. The framework has two main axes: 1) the level of forcing (as represented by the RCPs) and 2) different socio-economic reference pathways. The matrix can be used as a tool to guide new scenario development and analytical analysis. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic reference pathways and the shared policy assumptions, are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

  16. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  17. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  18. New procedure of generation of action scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Staniszewski, Michał; Wereszczyński, Kamil; Michalczuk, Agnieszka; Fernes, Daniel; Segen, Jakub; Kulbacki, Marek; Wojciechowski, Konrad

    2017-07-01

    Algorithms of tracking and action recognition are still under development and many problems still have to be solved. New methods are usually tested on available benchmarks with defined actions and human behavior however such approach has many limitations. For that reason the authors proposed new procedure of generating random action instances using on graph-based scenarios. Such idea can be applied in creation of different datasets as well as in simulations.

  19. Electroweak Gauge-Higgs Unification Scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Hosotani, Yutaka

    2008-11-23

    In the gauge-Higgs unification scenario 4D Higgs fields are unified with gauge fields in higher dimensions. The electroweak model is constructed in the Randall-Sundrum warped space. The electroweak symmetry is dynamically broken by the Hosotani mechanism due to the top quark contribution. The Higgs mass is predicted to be around 50 GeV with the vanishing ZZH and WWH couplings so that the LEP2 bound for the Higgs mass is evaded.

  20. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

    2010-04-01

    The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon - a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams). The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  1. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  2. Probabilistic Climate Scenario Information for Risk Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.; Takayabu, I.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information and services for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) Assessments are of great concern. In order to develop probabilistic regional climate information that represents the uncertainty in climate scenario experiments in Japan, we compared the physics ensemble experiments using the 60km global atmospheric model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM) with multi-model ensemble experiments with global atmospheric-ocean coupled models (CMIP3) of SRES A1b scenario experiments. The MRI-AGCM shows relatively good skills particularly in tropics for temperature and geopotential height. Variability in surface air temperature of physical ensemble experiments with MRI-AGCM was within the range of one standard deviation of the CMIP3 model in the Asia region. On the other hand, the variability of precipitation was relatively well represented compared with the variation of the CMIP3 models. Models which show the similar reproducibility in the present climate shows different future climate change. We couldn't find clear relationships between present climate and future climate change in temperature and precipitation. We develop a new method to produce probabilistic information of climate change scenarios by weighting model ensemble experiments based on a regression model (Krishnamurti et al., Science, 1999). The method can be easily applicable to other regions and other physical quantities, and also to downscale to finer-scale dependent on availability of observation dataset. The prototype of probabilistic information in Japan represents the quantified structural uncertainties of multi-model ensemble experiments of climate change scenarios. Acknowledgments: This study was supported by the SOUSEI Program, funded by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Government of Japan.

  3. A Visual Language for Composable Simulation Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-03-01

    engineering and simulation was conducted. An evaluation of the benefits and limitations of the behavior specification methods when applied to the...that have been applied to software engineering and simulations in the past. 32 2.8.1 Object-Oriented Software Behavior Specification Methods and...scenarios. There are several behavior specification techniques used in software engineering and modeling and simulation. These methods included process

  4. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-01

    www.3csoftware.com/blog/the-five-ws-and-one-h-of- designing -systems (2011). [Bass 2003] Bass, L.; Clements, P. C.; & Kazman, R. Software Architecture...Evaluate Architectural Design Approaches in a Major System Acquisition: A Case Study (CMU/SEI-2000-TN-010). Software Engineering Institute, Carnegie...Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios The WEA Project Team May 2012 SPECIAL REPORT CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 CERT® Division, Software

  5. A tilted cold dark matter cosmological scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Gnedin, Nickolay Y.; Kofman, Lev A.; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    A new cosmological scenario based on CDM but with a power spectrum index of about 0.7-0.8 is suggested. This model is predicted by various inflationary models with no fine tuning. This tilted CDM model, if normalized to COBE, alleviates many problems of the standard CDM model related to both small-scale and large-scale power. A physical bias of galaxies over dark matter of about two is required to fit spatial observations.

  6. Necrotizing Fasciitis: An Emergency Medicine Simulation Scenario

    PubMed Central

    Galust, Henrik; Oliverio, Matthew H; Giorgio, Daniel J; Espinal, Alexis M

    2016-01-01

    Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare and rapidly progressing life-threatening infectious process. By progressing through a simulation involving a patient with NF and participating in a post-scenario debriefing, learners will gain the necessary skills and knowledge to properly diagnose and manage patients with NF. Learners are taught to initiate appropriate and timely treatment and to advocate on behalf of their patient after inappropriate pushback from consultants to improve outcomes. PMID:27733963

  7. Moving beyond ice loss scenarios for Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Little, C. M.; Oppenheimer, M.; Urban, N.

    2010-12-01

    Scenario-based projections of individual components of sea level change are difficult to reconcile with probability distributions for sea level at the global and/or local scale. It is also difficult to assess the origin of key subjective decisions in the construction of these scenarios. An example is the historical distinction between the sensitivity of the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheets to climatic forcing. Observations show that this distinction may not have a well-defined physical basis at smaller scales. Recent “kinematic” approaches impose increases in ice discharge at the scale of individual outlet glaciers, yet the criteria for inclusion in these scenarios are unclear and differ between studies. Projections of the response of sub-regions of ice sheets to climate forcing should be informed by key physical characteristics, which may include ocean and/or atmospheric boundary conditions, bedrock and embayment morphology, and the stress regime of the grounded ice. Here, we assess: 1) the volume of Antarctic ice that is included in ice loss scenarios under different plausible sets of assumptions, and 2) the impact of these assumptions on the Antarctic contribution to sea level change. In the short term, this approach may raise or lower upper bounds proposed by earlier studies, depending on the criteria and rates employed. Perhaps more importantly, it is a step towards a fully probabilistic methodology, informing the requirements for models that may be used in probabilistic projections. Updating is possible: key sources of uncertainty may be revisited as more is learned about future climate forcing and rate-limiting processes in ice sheets.

  8. Quintom scenario with mixed kinetic terms

    SciTech Connect

    Saridakis, Emmanuel N.; Weller, Joel M.

    2010-06-15

    We examine an extension of the quintom scenario of dark energy, in which a canonical scalar field and a phantom field are coupled through a kinetic interaction. We perform a phase-space analysis and show that the kinetic coupling gives rise to novel cosmological behavior. In particular, we obtain both quintessence-like and phantomlike late-time solutions, as well as solutions that cross the phantom divide during the evolution of the Universe.

  9. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    PubMed

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  10. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  11. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; Pilaftsis, A.; Wagner, C. E. M.

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.

  12. CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

    DOE PAGES

    Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; ...

    2016-02-18

    We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales MS above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass MH+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenarios with amore » charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale MH± to the scale MS. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

  13. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    PubMed

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  14. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  15. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Dey, Thomas N; Bos, Rabdall J

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  16. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

    2014-10-01

    Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

  17. Riparian vegetation structure under desertification scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosário Fernandes, M.; Segurado, Pedro; Jauch, Eduardo; Ferreira, M. Teresa

    2015-04-01

    Riparian areas are responsible for many ecological and ecosystems services, including the filtering function, that are considered crucial to the preservation of water quality and social benefits. The main goal of this study is to quantify and understand the riparian variability under desertification scenario(s) and identify the optimal riparian indicators for water scarcity and droughts (WS&D), henceforth improving river basin management. This study was performed in the Iberian Tâmega basin, using riparian woody patches, mapped by visual interpretation on Google Earth imagery, along 130 Sampling Units of 250 m long river stretches. Eight riparian structural indicators, related with lateral dimension, weighted area and shape complexity of riparian patches were calculated using Patch Analyst extension for ArcGis 10. A set of 29 hydrological, climatic, and hydrogeomorphological variables were computed, by a water modelling system (MOHID), using monthly meteorological data between 2008 and 2014. Land-use classes were also calculated, in a 250m-buffer surrounding each sampling unit, using a classification based system on Corine Land Cover. Boosted Regression Trees identified Mean-width (MW) as the optimal riparian indicator for water scarcity and drought, followed by the Weighted Class Area (WCA) (classification accuracy =0.79 and 0.69 respectively). Average Flow and Strahler number were consistently selected, by all boosted models, as the most important explanatory variables. However, a combined effect of hidrogeomorphology and land-use can explain the high variability found in the riparian width mainly in Tâmega tributaries. Riparian patches are larger towards Tâmega river mouth although with lower shape complexity, probably related with more continuous and almost monospecific stands. Climatic, hydrological and land use scenarios, singly and combined, were used to quantify the riparian variability responding to these changes, and to assess the loss of riparian

  18. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    PubMed Central

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  19. R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

    2017-06-01

    To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ < 2 × 107 K (assuming a canonical NS with the accreted crust). Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

  20. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, S.S.

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  1. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    PubMed

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  2. Braneworld Scenarios from Deformed Defect Chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chinaglia, M.; Bernardini, A. E.; da Rocha, Roldão

    2016-10-01

    Novel braneworld scenarios supported by warp factors driven by a single extra dimension are obtained from deformed one-dimensional lump-like solutions known a priori. Through a novel ansatz, the internal energy structure, the braneworld warp factor, and the quantum mechanical analogue problem, as well as the associated zero mode solutions, are straightforwardly derived by means of an analytical procedure. The results allow one to identify thick brane solutions that support internal structures and that can hold the (3+1)-dimensional gravity.

  3. Automated Scenario Generation and Interaction Techniques

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    LEVEIt2 RADC-TR4. 1 - 1 1 Phwl Technical Report Jun. 1981 4 ": AUTOMATED SCENARIO GENERATION AND INTERACTION TECHNIQUES Martin Marietto Aerospace...SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (When Date Rnterod) TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 2.0 OBJECTIVES 2 3.0 APPROACH 2 4.0 INTERVIEW RESULTS 3 5.0...method 4> are: ( 1 ) the ability to analyze a player’s response to a given situation at the time that the situation arises; (2) to allow each player to

  4. Naturalness in testable type II seesaw scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dev, P. S. Bhupal; Vila, Clara Miralles; Rodejohann, Werner

    2017-08-01

    New physics coupling to the Higgs sector of the Standard Model can lead to dangerously large corrections to the Higgs mass. We investigate this problem in the type II seesaw model for neutrino mass, where a weak scalar triplet is introduced. The interplay of direct and indirect constraints on the type II seesaw model with its contribution to the Higgs mass is analyzed. The focus lies on testable triplet masses and (sub) eV-scale triplet vacuum expectation values. We identify scenarios that are testable in collider and/or lepton flavor violation experiments, while satisfying the Higgs naturalness criterion.

  5. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Patrick; Cole, Wesley; Blair, Nate; Lantz, Eric; Krishnan, Venkat; Mai, Trieu; Mulcahy, David; Porro, Gian

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  6. Haunted Quantum Entanglement: A New Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Douglas

    2010-10-01

    A haunted quantum entanglement scenario is proposed that is very close to Greenberger and YaSin's haunted measurement in that: 1) the entity that is developing as a which-way marker is effectively restored to its state prior to its developing as a which-way marker, and 2) the entity for which the developing which-way marker provides information enters the state it would have had if the development of the which-way marker had never begun. In the hqe scenario, the loss of developing which-way information through 1 relies on the loss of a developing entanglement. The photon initially emitted in one of two micromaser cavities and developing into a which-way marker is effectively lost through the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities: 1) after the atom initially emits the photon into one of the micromaser cavities and exits the cavity system, and 2) before this atom reaches the 2 slit screen. The atom enters the state it would have had if the atom had never emitted the photon into one of the micromaser cavities because of the injection of classical microwave radiation into both of the microwave cavities and the presence of an rf coil situated at the exit of the micromaser cavity system.

  7. Mars Sample Return mission: Two alternate scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Two scenarios for accomplishing a Mars Sample Return mission are presented herein. Mission A is a low cost, low mass scenario, while Mission B is a high technology, high science alternative. Mission A begins with the launch of one Titan IV rocket with a Centaur G' upper stage. The Centaur performs the trans-Mars injection burn and is then released. The payload consists of two lander packages and the Orbital Transfer Vehicle, which is responsible for supporting the landers during launch and interplanetary cruise. After descending to the surface, the landers deploy small, local rovers to collect samples. Mission B starts with 4 Titan IV launches, used to place the parts of the Planetary Transfer Vehicle (PTV) into orbit. The fourth launch payload is able to move to assemble the entire vehicle by simple docking routines. Once complete, the PTV begins a low thrust trajectory out from low Earth orbit, through interplanetary space, and into low Martian orbit. It deploys a communication satellite into a 1/2 sol orbit and then releases the lander package at 500 km altitude. The lander package contains the lander, the Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), two lighter than air rovers (called Aereons), and one conventional land rover. The entire package is contained with a biconic aeroshell. After release from the PTV, the lander package descends to the surface, where all three rovers are released to collect samples and map the terrain.

  8. Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Cumberbatch, Daniel; Ruiz de Austri, Roberto; Trotta, Roberto

    2012-01-01

    The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the ``Nightmare scenario'' of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb-1 of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as simeq 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.

  9. Dark Matter searches: the nightmare scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Bertone, Gianfranco; Cumberbatch, Daniel; Austri, Roberto Ruiz de

    2012-01-01

    The unfortunate case where the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) fails to discover physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) is sometimes referred to as the ''Nightmare scenario'' of particle physics. We study the consequences of this hypothetical scenario for Dark Matter (DM), in the framework of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM). We evaluate the surviving regions of the cMSSM parameter space after null searches at the LHC, using several different LHC configurations, and study the consequences for DM searches with ton-scale direct detectors and the IceCube neutrino telescope. We demonstrate that ton-scale direct detection experiments will be able to conclusively probe the cMSSM parameter space that would survive null searches at the LHC with 100 fb{sup −1} of integrated luminosity at 14 TeV. We also demonstrate that IceCube (80 strings plus DeepCore) will be able to probe as much as ≅ 17% of the currently favoured parameter space after 5 years of observation.

  10. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  11. Revised scenario for human missions to Mars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salotti, Jean Marc

    2012-12-01

    We present a revised version of our scenario for human missions to Mars. The idea is to take into consideration the difficulties and constraints for entry, descent and landing by splitting the heavy vehicle into two smaller ones. The standard capsule shape is thus possible for aerocapture and landing on Mars. It is suggested to use the largest possible diameter such that the ballistic coefficient is minimized and the lift to drag ratio is kept small. The maneuvers for the descent and landing are then simplified and the risks are minimized. The scenario has been modified to cope with the new constraints. Different options have been taken into account. It is possible to land a small Mars ascent vehicle or to reuse the habitat lander for Mars ascent. All options perform as well as the others for the criterion of the initial mass in low Earth orbit. However, reusing the habitat lander allows a significant reduction of the size of the Earth return vehicle, which otherwise requires a huge launching capability.

  12. Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ornetzeder, Michael; Rohracher, Harald; Wächter, Petra

    2012-10-01

    Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30-40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

  13. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  14. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  15. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H.; Darabi, F.; Sheykhi, A.

    2016-06-01

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation Δ V/Δ t = N_sur-N_bulk where N_bulk and N_sur are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper, we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as Δ V /Δ t=N_sur-N_bulk-N_extr where N_extr is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N_sur and N_bulk are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields.

  16. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  17. FORMAL SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scenario analysis is a process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more rigorous evaluation o...

  18. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  19. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    exercises that measured decision-making performance in a threat detection task. These exercises involved reading threat-relevant scenarios and then... reading threat-relevant scenarios and then reporting threat decisions. Each Soldier read two certain and two uncertain scenarios. After reading each...condone it; see “Checkpoint” and “Election” in Appendix A). After reading each scenario, Soldiers answered two questions (each with two sub

  20. Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zentner, Rene D.

    The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner…

  1. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  2. Integrating Future Information through Scenarios. AIR 1985 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zentner, Rene D.

    The way that higher education planners can take into account changes in the post-industrial society is discussed. The scenario method is proposed as a method of integrating futures information. The planner can be provided with several probable futures, each of which can be incorporated in a scenario. An effective scenario provides the planner…

  3. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  4. Climate change and growth scenarios for California wildfire

    Treesearch

    A.L. Westerling; B.P. Bryant; H.K. Preisler; T.P. Holmes; H.G. Hildalgo; T. Das; S.R. Shrestha

    2011-01-01

    Large wildfire occurrence and burned area are modeled using hydroclimate and landsurface characteristics under a range of future climate and development scenarios. The range of uncertainty for future wildfire regimes is analyzed over two emissions pathways (the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [SRES] A2 and B1 scenarios); three global climate models (Centre...

  5. Advanced tokamak scenario developments for the next step

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Joffrin, E.

    2007-12-01

    The objective of advanced tokamak scenario research is to provide a candidate plasma scenario for continuous operation in a fusion power plant. The optimization of the self-generated non-inductive current by the bootstrap mechanism up to a level of 50% and above using high plasma pressure and improved confinement are the necessary conditions to achieve this goal. The two main candidate scenarios for continuous operation, the steady state scenario and long duration (up to 3000 s) high neutron fluency scenario (the hybrid scenario), both face physics challenges in terms of confinement, stability, power exhaust and plasma control. Resistive wall modes and Alfvénic fast ion driven instabilities are the main limitations for operating the steady state scenario at high pressure and low magnetic shear. In addition, this scenario demands a high degree of control over the plasma current and pressure profile and the steady state heat load on in-vessel plasma facing components. Understanding the confinement properties of hybrid scenario is still an outstanding issue as well as its modelling for ITER in particular with regard to the H-mode pedestal parameters. This scenario will also require active current profile control, although, less demanding than for the steady state scenario. To operate advanced tokamak scenario, broad current and pressure profile control appears as a necessary requirement on ITER actuators, in addition to the tools required for instability control such as error field coils or electron cyclotron current drive.

  6. Special Operations Reconnaissance (SOR) Scenario: Intelligence Analysis and Mission Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-04-15

    experience in intelligence analysis and mission planning, the SOR scenario was developed to serve as this environment. The scenario is intended to be... intelligence analysis and mission planning scenario that requires a team of three participants to work together to solve various problems in an

  7. Various problems in lunar habitat construction scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Keiji; Ohtsubo, Koji; Oguchi, Mitsuo; Ohya, Haruhiko; Kanbe, Seiichiro; Ashida, Akira; Sano, Kenichi

    1991-10-01

    Many papers describing the lunar base construction have been published previously. Lunar base has been considered to be a useful facility to conduct future scientific programs and to get new nuclear energy resource, namely 3He, for defending the environmental collapse on Earth and also to develop lunar resources such as oxygen and nitrogen for extending human activities in space more economically. The scale of the lunar base and the construction methods adopted are determined by the scenario of a lunar utilization program but constrained by the availability of the established space transportation technologies. As indicated in the scenarios described in papers regarding lunar base construction, the first steps of lunar missions are the investigation of lunar itself for conducting scientific research and for surveying the lunar base construction sites, the second steps are the outpost construction for conducting man-tended missions, for more precise scientific research and studying the lunar base construction methods, and third steps are the construction of a permanent base and the expansion of this lunar base for exploiting lunar resources. The missions within the first and second steps are all possible using the ferry (OTV) similar to the service and command modules of Apollo Spacecraft because all necessary weights to be landed on the lunar surface for these missions seem to be under the equivalent weight of the Apollo Lunar Lander. On the other hand, the permanent facilities constructed on the lunar surface in the third step requires larger quantities of construction materials to be transported from Earth, and a new ferry (advanced OTV) having higher transportation ability, at least above 6 times, compared with Apollo Service and Command Modules, are to be developed. The largest problems in the permament lunar base construction are related to the food production facilities, 30-40 m 2 plant cultivation area per person are required for providing the nutrition

  8. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    PubMed

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  9. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    SciTech Connect

    Peterson, Steve

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  10. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  11. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  12. [Subjective causal scenarios for global environmental change].

    PubMed

    Böhm, G; Mader, S

    1998-01-01

    Two studies are presented that investigate the assumptions that risk evaluation is based on subjective causal scenarios, and that the cognitive representation of global environmental risks is structured according to five causal levels: human attitudes, human activities, emissions or pollutions, environmental changes, and negative consequences. In study 1, 30 subjects listed in free-response format causes, consequences, and remedial measures for 14 environmental risks. Differences between predictive and diagnostic inferences were found: whereas subjects tend to assign immediate rather than mediated causes, they predominantly assign negative consequences for humans, irrespective of the length of the causal chain that leads to these consequences. In study 2, 41 subjects judged the overall similarity between 25 environmental risks. A multidimensional scaling analysis of these similarity judgments replicates the theoretically assumed five causal levels. Results of both studies support the assumptions that risk evaluation is based on implicit causal hypotheses and that the proposed five-level structure adequately describes the cognitive representation of environmental risks.

  13. A COLLISIONLESS SCENARIO FOR URANUS TILTING

    SciTech Connect

    Boue, Gwenael; Laskar, Jacques

    2010-03-20

    The origin of the high inclination of Uranus' spin-axis (Uranus' obliquity) is one of the great unanswered questions about the solar system. Giant planets are believed to form with nearly zero obliquity, and it has been shown that the present behavior of Uranus' spin is essentially stable. Several attempts were made in order to solve this problem. Here we report numerical simulations showing that Uranus' axis can be tilted during the planetary migration, without the need of a giant impact, provided that the planet had an additional satellite and a temporary large inclination. This might have happened during the giant planet instability phase described in the Nice model. In our scenario, the satellite is ejected after the tilt by a close encounter at the end of the migration. This model can both explain Uranus' large obliquity and bring new constraints on the planet orbital evolution.

  14. The Asymptotic Safety Scenario in Quantum Gravity.

    PubMed

    Niedermaier, Max; Reuter, Martin

    2006-01-01

    The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity is reviewed, according to which a renormalizable quantum theory of the gravitational field is feasible which reconciles asymptotically safe couplings with unitarity. The evidence from symmetry truncations and from the truncated flow of the effective average action is presented in detail. A dimensional reduction phenomenon for the residual interactions in the extreme ultraviolet links both results. For practical reasons the background effective action is used as the central object in the quantum theory. In terms of it criteria for a continuum limit are formulated and the notion of a background geometry self-consistently determined by the quantum dynamics is presented. Self-contained appendices provide prerequisites on the background effective action, the effective average action, and their respective renormalization flows.

  15. Neutralino dark matter from string scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Cerdeno, D. G.

    2007-01-12

    The direct detection of neutralino dark matter is analysed within the context of orbifold scenarios from the heterotic superstring. In particular, the neutralino-proton cross section is computed and compared with the sensitivity of detectors, taking into account the most recent experimental and astrophysical constraints. In addition to the usual non-universalities of the soft terms in orbifold compactifications, due to their modular weight dependence, the contribution of a D-term, generated by the presence of an anomalous U(1) is also investigated. The D-term contribution provides more flexibility in the non-universalities, and is crucial iniding dangerous charge and colour-breaking minima. Thanks to it, large neutralino detection cross sections can be obtained in regions of the parameter space fulfilling all experimental and astrophysical constraints.

  16. Neutralino dark matter in orbifold scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Cerdeno, D. G.

    2006-11-28

    The direct detection of neutralino dark matter is analysed within the context of orbifold scenarios from the heterotic superstring. In particular, the theoretical predictions for the neutralino-proton cross section are evaluated and compared with the sensitivity of detectors, taking into account the most recent experimental and astrophysical constraints. In addition to the usual non-universalities of the soft terms in orbifold compactifications, due to their modular weight dependence, the contribution of a D-term, generated by the presence o anomalous U (1) is also investigated. The D-term contribution provides more flexibility in the non-universalities, and is crucial in avoiding dangerous charge and colour-breaking minima. Large neutralino detection cross sections can be obtained in regions of the parameter space fulfilling all experimental and astrophysical constraints thanks to the inclusion of the D-term contribution.

  17. Emergence in holographic scenarios for gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dieks, Dennis; van Dongen, Jeroen; de Haro, Sebastian

    2015-11-01

    'Holographic' relations between theories have become an important theme in quantum gravity research. These relations entail that a theory without gravity is equivalent to a gravitational theory with an extra spatial dimension. The idea of holography was first proposed in 1993 by Gerard 't Hooft on the basis of his studies of evaporating black holes. Soon afterwards the holographic 'AdS/CFT' duality was introduced, which since has been intensively studied in the string theory community and beyond. Recently, Erik Verlinde has proposed that even Newton's law of gravitation can be related holographically to the 'thermodynamics of information' on screens. We discuss these scenarios, with special attention to the status of the holographic relation in them and to the question of whether they make gravity and spacetime emergent. We conclude that only Verlinde's scheme straightforwardly instantiates emergence. However, assuming a non-standard interpretation of AdS/CFT may create room for the emergence of spacetime and gravity there as well.

  18. Lyman Alpha Emitters and Galaxy Formation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malhotra, S.; Kovac, K.; Somerville, R.; Moustakas, L.; Rhoads, J. E.

    2002-12-01

    The Large Area Lyman Alpha (LALA) survey has successfully identified the population of young Lyman-alpha emitting galaxies predicted about 35 years ago. High equivalent widths of the Lyman-alpha line in these sources suggest that they are a very young (age < 107 years), metal poor, population of stars at redshifts 4.5 and 5.7, making them very interesting objects to study in the context of galaxy formation scenarios. We have begun to do exactly this using the correlation function of LALA galaxies. While the strong correlation function indicates massive halos, the volume density of Lyman-alpha sources and the faint continuum levels indicate low-mass stellar systems. This discrepancy can be resolved by postulating multiple emitters in a single halo.

  19. Inhomogeneous reheating scenario with DBI fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Sheng

    2010-08-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed cs from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL is independent of cs. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  20. PLASMIX management: LCA of six possible scenarios.

    PubMed

    Cossu, R; Garbo, F; Girotto, F; Simion, F; Pivato, A

    2017-08-09

    Only a small percentage of the separately collected plastic is recycled. The mechanical selection process of source segregated plastic materials generates considerable amounts of residues that are commonly named as Plasmix. By means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, the environmental performances of the main Plasmix management options (thermal treatment, energy recovery, and landfilling) were compared. Six treatment scenarios, with different pre-treatment alternatives, were evaluated. Landfilling after waste washing and Plasmix substitution of coke in a blast furnace represent the most favorable options, since the performances of thermal treatment and energy recovery are worsened by specific emissions of a variety of toxic compounds and heavy metals within plastic materials as additives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. New mathematics for the nonadditive Tsallis’ scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferri, G. L.; Pennini, F.; Plastino, A.; Rocca, M. C.

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, we investigate quantum uncertainties in a Tsallis’ nonadditive scenario. To such an end we appeal to q-exponentials (qEs), that are the cornerstone of Tsallis’ theory. In this respect, it is found that some new mathematics is needed and we are led to construct a set of novel special states that are the qE equivalents of the ordinary coherent states (CS) of the harmonic oscillator (HO). We then characterize these new Tsallis’ special states by obtaining the associated (i) probability distributions (PDs) for a state of momentum k, (ii) mean values for some functions of space an momenta and (iii) concomitant quantum uncertainties. The latter are then compared to the usual ones.

  2. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  3. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    PubMed

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  4. Multipartite maximally entangled states in symmetric scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Guillén, Carlos E.

    2012-08-01

    We consider the class of (N+1)-partite states suitable for protocols where there is a powerful party, the authority, and the other N parties play the same role, namely, the state of their system lies in the symmetric Hilbert space. We show that, within this scenario, there is a “maximally entangled state” that can be transform by a local operations and classical communication protocol into any other state. In addition, we show how to use the protocol efficiently, including the construction of the state, and discuss security issues for possible applications to cryptographic protocols. As an immediate consequence we recover a sequential protocol that implements the 1-to-N symmetric cloning.

  5. Sarin exposure: a simulation case scenario.

    PubMed

    Eason, Martin P

    2013-01-01

    Given the current geopolitical tensions, the risk of a terrorist attack on the United States is constant and increasing. Chemical terrorism, specifically the use of nerve agents, has occurred in other nations. Because of the ease of manufacture, the ability to conceal them, and the lethality of these agents, they pose a potential threat as a weapon of terror. Nerve agent exposure requires prompt recognition, a series of actions to mitigate further exposure to others, and management of the physiological sequelae of exposure. Many civilian healthcare providers are unprepared to manage injuries from nerve exposure. Failure to recognize the signs of nerve agent exposure will increase mortality and morbidity in victims and place healthcare providers at risk. Simulation is an effective methodology to train healthcare personnel in disaster preparedness. This article presents a simulation scenario that reviews the presentation of nerve agent exposure, its management, and a recipe for performing this simulation in a training exercise.

  6. Detecting genuine multipartite entanglement in steering scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jebaratnam, C.

    2016-05-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) steering is a form of quantum nonlocality which is intermediate between entanglement and Bell nonlocality. EPR steering is a resource for quantum key distribution that is device independent on only one side in that it certifies bipartite entanglement when one party's device is not characterized while the other party's device is fully characterized. In this work, we introduce two types of genuine tripartite EPR steering, and derive two steering inequalities to detect them. In a semi-device-independent scenario where only the dimensions of two parties are assumed, the correlations which violate one of these inequalities also certify genuine tripartite entanglement. It is known that Alice can demonstrate bipartite EPR steering to Bob if and only if her measurement settings are incompatible. We demonstrate that quantum correlations can also detect tripartite EPR steering from Alice to Bob and Charlie, even if Charlie's measurement settings are compatible.

  7. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  8. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    PubMed

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo. c2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Rapid impactor sample return (RISR) mission scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, James D.; Freitas, Christopher J.; Tapley, Mark B.

    2004-01-01

    Due to the long lead time and great expense of traditional sample return mission plans to Mars or other astronomical bodies, there is a need for a new and innovative way to return materials, potentially at a lower cost. The Rapid Impactor Sample Return (RISR) mission is one such proposal. The general mission scenario involves a single pass of Mars, a Martian moon or an asteroid at high speeds (7 km/s), with the sample return vehicle skimming just 1 or 2 m above a high point (such as a top ridge on Olympus Mons on Mars) and releasing an impactor. The impactor strikes the ground, throwing up debris. The debris with roughly the same forward velocity will be captured by the sample return vehicle and returned to Earth. There is no delay or orbit in the vicinity of Mars or the asteroid: RISR is a one-pass mission. This paper discusses some of the details of the proposal. Calculations are presented that address the question of how much material can be recovered with this technique. There are concerns about the effect of Mars tenuous atmosphere. However, it will be noted that such issues do not occur for RISR style missions to Phobos, Deimos, or asteroids and Near Earth Objects (NEOs). Recent test results in the missile defense community (IFTs 6-8 in 2001, 2002) have scored direct hits at better than 1 m accuracy with closing velocities of 7.6 km/s, giving the belief that accuracy and sensing issues are developed to a point that the RISR mission scenario is feasible.

  10. Lyman Alpha Galaxies and Galaxy Formation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malhotra, Sangeeta; Rhoads, James; Dey, Arjun; Jannuzi, Buell

    2003-02-01

    The Large Area Lyman Alpha survey has successfully identified the population of young Lyα emitting galaxies predicted over 30 years ago. High equivalent widths of Lyα line in these sources suggest that they are a very young (age < 10^7 years), metal poor, population of stars at redshifts 4.5, 5.7 and 6.6, making them very interesting objects to study in the context of galaxy formation scenarios. We have begun to do exactly this using the correlation function of LALA galaxies, with fairly puzzling results. Before this leads to more complications in theoretical galaxy formation scenarios, we would like to put the observational results on a firm footing. In order to do that we ask for one night of Keck/Deimos time for spectroscopic confirmation of 50 secure LALA sources at z=4.5, and a similar number of fainter sources, in order to (1) characterize the completeness of this survey, and (2) weed out foreground emission line galaxies which affect the small scale correlation function. The excellent match between wide-field capabilities of DEIMOS and the LALA survey will allow the most complete confirmation and characterization of the high redshift Lyα population yet in terms of photometric sample reliability, while our planned spectra of foreground emission line galaxies will lead to a characterization of emission line selected star-forming galaxies at 0.25 < z < 1.5. We will use our spectroscopic sample to obtain a clean measurement of the small scale correlations among Lyα galaxies (which are clearly seen in our photometric sample). This will let us understand the halo mass, occupancy number, and duty cycle of these objects, and hence better how Lyα sources fit into the bigger picture of galaxy formation.

  11. Advances on modelling of ITER scenarios: physics and computational challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Garcia, J.; Artaud, J. F.; Basiuk, V.; Decker, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.

    2011-12-01

    Methods and tools for design and modelling of tokamak operation scenarios are discussed with particular application to ITER advanced scenarios. Simulations of hybrid and steady-state scenarios performed with the integrated tokamak modelling suite of codes CRONOS are presented. The advantages of a possible steady-state scenario based on cyclic operations, alternating phases of positive and negative loop voltage, with no magnetic flux consumption on average, are discussed. For regimes in which current alignment is an issue, a general method for scenario design is presented, based on the characteristics of the poloidal current density profile.

  12. Impact of explosive eruption scenarios at Vesuvius

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Cacace, F.; Spence, R. J. S.; Baxter, P. J.

    2008-12-01

    In the paper the first attempt at the definition of a model to assess the impact of a range of different volcanic hazards on the building structures is presented. This theoretical approach has been achieved within the activities of the EXPLORIS Project supported by the EU. A time history for Sub-Plinian I eruptive scenario of the Vesuvius is assumed by taking advantage of interpretation of historical reports of volcanic crises of the past [Carafa, G. 1632. In opusculum de novissima Vesuvij conflagratione, epistola isagogica, 2 a ed. Napoli, Naples; Mascolo, G.B., 1634. De incendio Vesuvii excitato xvij. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo primo sæculi Decimiseptimi libri X. Cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum; & Ephemeride ultimi. Napoli; Varrone, S., 1634. Vesuviani incendii historiae libri tres. Napoli], numerical simulations [Neri, A., Esposti Ongaro, T., Macedonio, G., Gidaspow, D., 2003. Multiparticle simulation of collapsing volcanic columns and pyroclastic flows. J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 108, 2202. doi:10.1029/2001 JB000508; Macedonio, G., Costa, A., Longo, A., 2005. HAZMAP: a computer model for volcanic ash fallout and assessment of subsequent hazard. Comput. Geosci. 31,837-845; Costa, A., Macedonio, G., Folch, A., 2006. A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 241,634-647] and experts' elicitations [Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions. In: Mader, H.M. Coles, S.G. Connor, C.B. Connor, L.J. (Eds), Statistics in Volcanology. Geological Society of London on behalf of IAVCEI, pp.15-30; Woo, G., 1999. The Mathematics of Natural Catastrophes. Imperial College Press, London] from which the impact on the building structures is derived. This is achieved by an original definition of vulnerability functions for multi-hazard input and a dynamic cumulative damage model. Factors affecting the variability of the final

  13. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  14. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  15. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  16. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sevilla, J.; Welch, J.; /SLAC

    2010-11-17

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about {+-}2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  17. Scenario Tools For Efficient Eutrophication Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arheimer, B.; Vastra SP3 Team

    Several possible measures are available to reduce diffuse (non-point source) nutri- ent load to surface water and thereby reduce eutrophication. Such measures include changed arable practices and constructions of wetlands and buffer zones in the land- scape, as well as managing lake ecosystems. In some cases, such as for wetlands, there is an intense debate regarding the efficiency of their nutrient reducing capability. In ad- dition, the combined effect of several measures in a catchment is not necessarily equal to their sum. It is therefore important to apply a holistic and integrated catchment approach when applying and evaluating different management strategies. To facili- tate such catchment analyses, the Swedish water management research programme (VASTRA) develop modelling tools addressing both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in catchments. During the last three years decision support tools for N man- agement in rivers and lakes have been developed (e.g., HBV-N, BIOLA) and applied in scenarios to demonstrate the effect of various reducing measures. At present, similar tools for P are under development. This presentation will demonstrate the VASTRA tool-box and its applications for efficient eutrophication management.

  18. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    PubMed

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  19. UAV team behaviors in operational scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilmore, John F.; Garbarino, Joseph E.

    2004-09-01

    The Behavior Enhanced Heterogeneous Autonomous Vehicle Environment (BEHAVE) is a distributed system for the command and control of multiple Unmanned Vehicle Systems (UVS) with various sensor payloads (EO, infrared and radar) and mission roles (combat, reconnaissance, penetrator, relay) working in cooperation to fulfill mission goals in light of encountered threats, vehicle damage, and mission redirects. In its current form, BEHAVE provides UVS dynamic route planning/replanning, autonomous vehicle control, platform self-awareness, autonomous threat response, and muti-vehicle cooperation. This paper focuses on BEHAVE's heterogeneous autonomous UVS team cooperation achieved through the transformation of UVS operational doctrine into UVS team behaviors. This level of tactics provides the initial high-level cooperative control guidance and plans for multiple UVSs operating to achieve specific mission goal. BEHAVE's heterogeneous UVS behaviors include inter-vehicle cueing capability on coupled missions based on new threats, targets, and foreshadowing changes in environments, optimizing individual UVS mission roles, enhanced reassignment of mission goals based upon resources consumed and threats encountered, and multi UVS team threat behavior. Threat behaviors include logic incorporated for team scenarios such as drawing out or confusing threats.

  20. Realities of leprosy control: updating scenarios.

    PubMed

    Gonçalves, Aguinaldo

    2013-09-01

    In the light of successive therapeutical difficulties for leprosy control, the application of drug therapy combination over the last decades has brought about an expectation of cure for leprosy patients and also for the elimination of this illness as a Public Health problem. However, there has been a progressive reduction in the prevalence of leprosy, but without any apparent impact on transmission, which has led to recognized need for solid assessment of respective epidemiological evidence as grounds for interventions to solve the problem. In this regard, here we present a retroanalytical qualitative and quantitative study, combined with a prospective diachronic approach, based on the association of documental review techniques and analysis of content, involving the following phases in succession: assembly of an operational scheme, execution of search strategy, application of criteria, selection of studies, data extraction and processing, implementation of analysis plan and preparation of final text. The appropriate execution of the procedures, as applied, allows us to obtain and discuss the identification of three main scenarios: the elimination of the illness as a public health problem (Neglected Illness); therapeutic aspects (Resistance; Relapse; Non-Adherence; Persistence) and complexity (complications and physical incapacities). The conclusions that have been reached indicate,mainly, that the reality of leprosy control with the use of combination drug therapy, still needs to be handled with care, even more so as this is just a fragment of the set of people once under medical attention, which also correspond to a parcel of the set of people affected by the ailment.

  1. Realistic Ground Motion Scenarios: Methodological Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Nunziata, C.; Peresan, A.; Romanelli, F.; Vaccari, F.; Zuccolo, E.; Panza, G. F.

    2008-07-08

    The definition of realistic seismic input can be obtained from the computation of a wide set of time histories, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios. The propagation of the waves in the bedrock from the source to the local laterally varying structure is computed with the modal summation technique, while in the laterally heterogeneous structure the finite difference method is used. The definition of shear wave velocities within the soil cover is obtained from the non-linear inversion of the dispersion curve of group velocities of Rayleigh waves, artificially or naturally generated. Information about the possible focal mechanisms of the sources can be obtained from historical seismicity, based on earthquake catalogues and inversion of isoseismal maps. In addition, morphostructural zonation and pattern recognition of seismogenic nodes is useful to identify areas prone to strong earthquakes, based on the combined analysis of topographic, tectonic, geological maps and satellite photos. We show that the quantitative knowledge of regional geological structures and the computation of realistic ground motion can be a powerful tool for a preventive definition of the seismic hazard in Italy. Then, the formulation of reliable building codes, based on the evaluation of the main potential earthquakes, will have a great impact on the effective reduction of the seismic vulnerability of Italian urban areas, validating or improving the national building code.

  2. Nonlocal correlations in a macroscopic measurement scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkri, Samir; Banik, Manik; Ghosh, Sibasish

    2017-02-01

    Nonlocality is one of the main characteristic features of quantum systems involving more than one spatially separated subsystem. It is manifested theoretically as well as experimentally through violation of some local realistic inequality. On the other hand, classical behavior of all physical phenomena in the macroscopic limit gives a general intuition that any physical theory for describing microscopic phenomena should resemble classical physics in the macroscopic regime, the so-called macrorealism. In the 2-2-2 scenario (two parties, with each performing two measurements and each measurement having two outcomes), contemplating all the no-signaling correlations, we characterize which of them would exhibit classical (local realistic) behavior in the macroscopic limit. Interestingly, we find correlations which at the single-copy level violate the Bell-Clauser-Horne-Shimony-Holt inequality by an amount less than the optimal quantum violation (i.e., Cirel'son bound 2 √{2 } ), but in the macroscopic limit gives rise to a value which is higher than 2 √{2 } . Such correlations are therefore not considered physical. Our study thus provides a sufficient criterion to identify some of unphysical correlations.

  3. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network. PMID:25471452

  4. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giacomelli, P.; Rossetti, A.; Brambilla, M.

    2008-04-01

    Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  5. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  6. Hyperspectral Anomaly Detection in Urban Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rejas Ayuga, J. G.; Martínez Marín, R.; Marchamalo Sacristán, M.; Bonatti, J.; Ojeda, J. C.

    2016-06-01

    We have studied the spectral features of reflectance and emissivity in the pattern recognition of urban materials in several single hyperspectral scenes through a comparative analysis of anomaly detection methods and their relationship with city surfaces with the aim to improve information extraction processes. Spectral ranges of the visible-near infrared (VNIR), shortwave infrared (SWIR) and thermal infrared (TIR) from hyperspectral data cubes of AHS sensor and HyMAP and MASTER of two cities, Alcalá de Henares (Spain) and San José (Costa Rica) respectively, have been used. In this research it is assumed no prior knowledge of the targets, thus, the pixels are automatically separated according to their spectral information, significantly differentiated with respect to a background, either globally for the full scene, or locally by image segmentation. Several experiments on urban scenarios and semi-urban have been designed, analyzing the behaviour of the standard RX anomaly detector and different methods based on subspace, image projection and segmentation-based anomaly detection methods. A new technique for anomaly detection in hyperspectral data called DATB (Detector of Anomalies from Thermal Background) based on dimensionality reduction by projecting targets with unknown spectral signatures to a background calculated from thermal spectrum wavelengths is presented. First results and their consequences in non-supervised classification and extraction information processes are discussed.

  7. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    PubMed

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network.

  8. Dynamical Scenarios for Chromosome Bi-orientation

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A.; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-01-01

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly. PMID:23790367

  9. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  10. Modeling and Composing Scenario-Based Requirements with Aspects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Araujo, Joao; Whittle, Jon; Ki, Dae-Kyoo

    2004-01-01

    There has been significant recent interest, within the Aspect-Oriented Software Development (AOSD) community, in representing crosscutting concerns at various stages of the software lifecycle. However, most of these efforts have concentrated on the design and implementation phases. We focus in this paper on representing aspects during use case modeling. In particular, we focus on scenario-based requirements and show how to compose aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios so that they can be simulated as a whole. Non-aspectual scenarios are modeled as UML sequence diagram. Aspectual scenarios are modeled as Interaction Pattern Specifications (IPS). In order to simulate them, the scenarios are transformed into a set of executable state machines using an existing state machine synthesis algorithm. Previous work composed aspectual and non-aspectual scenarios at the sequence diagram level. In this paper, the composition is done at the state machine level.

  11. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins.

    PubMed

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-03-07

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in 'easy' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty.

  12. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    PubMed

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  13. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

  14. Intelligent scenario generation for simulation-based training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Loftin, R. Bowen; Wang, Lui; Baffes, Paul

    1989-01-01

    A training scenario generator object database was developed to serve as a general-purpose mechanism for constructing the context needed to define a simulation scenario. It is found that the ability to automate the development of the input parameters required to produce a challenging simulation scenario targeted at a specific trainee can greatly enhance the efficiency of intelligent training systems. The approach described was used successfully in the payload-assist module deploy/intelligent computer-aided training system.

  15. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  16. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  17. Computational studies of origins of life scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathew, Damien Cherian

    Understanding the origins of life on Earth is one of the most intriguing problems facing science today. In the research presented here, we apply computational methods to explore origins of life scenarios. In particular, we focus on the origins of the genetic code and the intersection between geochemistry and a primordial "biochemistry" in which mononucleotides could form short oligoucleotide chains. We also apply quantum chemical methods to a modern biochemical reaction, the charging of tRNA by an aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase, in order to shed light on the possible chemistry one may want to consider in problems relating to the origins of life. The question of how codons came to be associated with specific amino acids in the present form of the genetic code is one fundamental part of gaining insight into the origins of life. Carl Woese and coworkers designed a series of experiments to test associations between amino acids and nucleobases that may have played a role in establishing the genetic code. Through these experiments it was found that a property of amino acids called the polar requirement (PR) is correlated to the organization of the codon table. No other property of amino acids has been found that correlates with the codon table as well as PR, indicating that PR is uniquely related to the modern genetic code. Using molecular dynamics simulations of amino acids in solutions of water and dimethylpyridine used to experimentally measure PR, we show that variations in the partitioning between the two phases as described by radial distribution functions correlate well with the measured PRs. Partition coefficients based on probability densities of the amino acids in each phase have the linear behavior with base concentration as suggested by the PR experiments. We also investigate the possible roles of inorganic mineral surfaces in catalysis and stabilization of reactions essential for early forms of replicating systems that could have evolved into biochemical

  18. Non-standard structure formation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knebe, Alexander; Little, Brett; Islam, Ranty; Devriendt, Julien; Mahmood, Asim; Silk, Joe

    2003-04-01

    Observations on galactic scales seem to be in contradiction with recent high resolution N-body simulations. This so-called cold dark matter (CDM) crisis has been addressed in several ways, ranging from a change in fundamental physics by introducing self-interacting cold dark matter particles to a tuning of complex astrophysical processes such as global and/or local feedback. All these efforts attempt to soften density profiles and reduce the abundance of satellites in simulated galaxy halos. In this contribution we are exploring the differences between a Warm Dark Matter model and a CDM model where the power on a certain scale is reduced by introducing a narrow negative feature (`dip'). This dip is placed in a way so as to mimic the loss of power in the WDM model: both models have the same integrated power out to the scale where the power of the Dip model rises to the level of the unperturbed CDM spectrum again. Using N-body simulations we show that that the new Dip model appears to be a viable alternative to WDM while being based on different physics: where WDM requires the introduction of a new particle species the Dip stems from anon-standard inflationary period. If we are looking for an alternative to the currently challenged standard ΛCDM structure formation scenario, neither the ΛWDM nor the new Dip model can be ruled out with respect to the analysis presented in this contribution. They both make very similar predictions and the degeneracy between them can only be broken with observations yet to come.

  19. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    SciTech Connect

    Gayle, Thomas R.; Summers, Kenneth Lee; Jungels, John; Oppel III, Fred J.

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  20. Effective Scenarios for Exploring Asteroid Surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Pamela E.; Clark, C.; Weisbin, C.

    2010-10-01

    In response to the proposal that asteroids be the next targets for exploration, we attempt to develop scenarios for exploring previously mapped asteroid 433 Eros, harnessing our recent experience gained planning such activity for return to the lunar surface. The challenges faced in planning Apollo led to the development of a baseline methodology for extraterrestrial field science. What `lessons learned’ can be applied for asteroids? Effective reconnaissance (advanced mapping at <0.5 m, photos with plotted routes as in-field reference maps), training/simulating/planning (highly interactive abundant field time for extended crew), and documentation (hands-free audio and visual systematic description) procedures are still valid. The use of Constant Scale Natural Boundary rather than standard projection maps eases the challenge of navigating and interpreting a highly irregular object. Lunar and asteroid surfaces are dominated by bombardment and space radiation/dust/charged particle/regolith interactions, with similar implications for sampling. Asteroid work stations are selected on the basis of impact-induced exposure of `outcrops’ from prominent ridges (e.g., Himeros, the noses) potentially representing underlying material, supplemented by sampling of areas of especially thin or deep regolith (ponds). Unlike the Moon, an asteroid lacks sufficient gravity and most likely the necessary stability to support `normal’ driving or walking. In fact, the crew delivery vehicle might not even be `tetherable’ and would most likely `station keep’ to maintain a position. The most convenient local mobility mechanism for astronauts/robots would be `hand over hand’ above the surface at a field station supplemented by a `tetherless’ (small rocket-pack) control system for changing station or return to vehicle. Thus, we assume similar mobility constraints (meters to hundreds of meters at a local station, kilometers between stations) as those used for Apollo. We also assume

  1. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  2. Radiation Protection for Lunar Mission Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Clowdsley, Martha S.; Nealy, John E.; Wilson, John W.; Anderson, Brooke M.; Anderson, Mark S.; Krizan, Shawn A.

    2005-01-01

    Preliminary analyses of shielding requirements to protect astronauts from the harmful effects of radiation on both short-term and long-term lunar missions have been performed. Shielding needs for both solar particle events (SPEs) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposure are discussed for transit vehicles and surface habitats. This work was performed under the aegis of two NASA initiatives. The first study was an architecture trade study led by Langley Research Center (LaRC) in which a broad range of vehicle types and mission scenarios were compared. The radiation analysis for this study primarily focused on the additional shielding mass required to protect astronauts from the rare occurrence of a large SPE. The second study, led by Johnson Space Center (JSC), involved the design of lunar habitats. Researchers at LaRC were asked to evaluate the changes to mission architecture that would be needed if the surface stay were lengthened from a shorter mission duration of 30 to 90 days to a longer stay of 500 days. Here, the primary radiation concern was GCR exposure. The methods used for these studies as well as the resulting shielding recommendations are discussed. Recommendations are also made for more detailed analyses to minimize shielding mass, once preliminary vehicle and habitat designs have been completed. Here, methodologies are mapped out and available radiation analysis tools are described. Since, as yet, no dosimetric limits have been adopted for missions beyond low earth orbit (LEO), radiation exposures are compared to LEO limits. Uncertainties associated with the LEO career effective dose limits and the effects of lowering these limits on shielding mass are also discussed.

  3. Heuristic scenario builder for power system operator training

    SciTech Connect

    Irisarri, G.; Rafian, M. ); Miller, B.N. ); Dobrowolski, E.J. )

    1992-05-01

    The Heuristic Scenario Builder (HSB), a knowledge-based training scenario builder for the EPRI Operator Training Simulator (OTS), is described in this paper. Expert systems and heuristic searches are used in the HSB to find training scenarios that closely fit trainee profiles and that address particular training requirements. Expert knowledge obtained from instructors and other operations personnel is used throughout the HSB to determine the scenarios. The HSB is an integral part of the OTS and is currently in operation at Philadelphia Electric's OTS installation.

  4. A future without health? Health dimension in global scenario studies.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud

    2003-01-01

    This paper reviews the health dimension and sociocultural, economic, and ecological determinants of health in existing global scenario studies. Not even half of the 31 scenarios reviewed gave a good description of future health developments and the different scenario studies did not handle health in a consistent way. Most of the global driving forces of health are addressed adequately in the selected scenarios, however, and it therefore would have been possible to describe the future developments in health as an outcome of these multiple driving forces. To provide examples on how future health can be incorporated in existing scenarios, we linked the sociocultural, economic, and environmental developments described in three sets of scenarios (special report on emission scenarios (SRES), global environmental outlook-3 (GEO3), and world water scenarios (WWS)) to three potential, but imaginary, health futures ("age of emerging infectious diseases", "age of medical technology", and "age of sustained health"). This paper provides useful insights into how to deal with future health in scenarios and shows that a comprehensive picture of future health evolves when all important driving forces and pressures are taken into account. PMID:14997242

  5. Traffic scenario generation technique for piloted simulation studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williams, David H.; Wells, Douglas C.

    1985-01-01

    Piloted simulation studies of cockpit traffic display concepts require the development of representative traffic scenarios. With the exception of specific aircraft interaction issues, most research questions can be addressed using traffic scenarios consisting of prerecorded aircraft movements merged together to form a desired traffic pattern. Prerecorded traffic scenarios have distinct research advantages, allowing control of traffic encounters with repeatability of scenarios between different test subjects. A technique is described for generation of prerecorded jet transport traffic scenarios suitable for use in piloted simulation studies. Individual flight profiles for the aircraft in the scenario are created interactively with a computer program designed specifically for this purpose. The profiles are then time-correlated and merged into a complete scenario. This technique was used to create traffic scenarios for the Denver, Colorado area with operations centered at Stapleton International Airport. Traffic scenarios for other areas may also be created using this technique, with appropriate modifications made to the navigation fix locations contained in the flight profile generation program.

  6. Effects of exemplar scenarios on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demski, Christina; Spence, Alexa; Pidgeon, Nick

    2017-03-01

    Understanding which energy future configurations provide publicly acceptable levels of energy security, affordability, and environmental protection is critical for institutional decision-making. However, little is known about how scenarios influence energy preferences. Here we present nationally representative UK data on public preferences for energy futures using the my2050 scenario-building tool that encourages engagement with the holistic complexities of system change. Engagement with the tool strengthened existing preferences for renewable energy and intentions to take personal action. Importantly, patterns of energy preferences were influenced by exemplar scenarios, which served as reference points that anchored choices. Carbon capture and storage, nuclear power, biofuels, and changes to heating and travel were particularly impacted by scenarios indicating uncertainty and ambivalence regarding these options. Scenarios (and scenario-building tools) are valuable for engaging citizens about future energy systems. However, care is required in their design and interpretation to reach robust conclusions about underlying preferences and acceptance.

  7. Future possible crop yield scenarios under multiple SSP and RCP scenarios.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakurai, G.; Yokozawa, M.; Nishimori, M.; Okada, M.

    2016-12-01

    Understanding the effect of future climate change on global crop yields is one of the most important tasks for global food security. Future crop yields would be influenced by climatic factors such as the changes of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. On the other hand, the effect of the changes of agricultural technologies such as crop varieties, pesticide and fertilizer input on crop yields have large uncertainty. However, not much is available on the contribution ratio of each factor under the future climate change scenario. We estimated the future global yields of four major crops (maize, soybean, rice and wheat) under three Shared Socio Economic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For this purpose, firstly, we estimated a parameter of a process based model (PRYSBI2) using a Bayesian method for each 1.125 degree spatial grid. The model parameter is relevant to the agricultural technology (we call "technological parameter" here after). Then, we analyzed the relationship between the values of technological parameter and GDP values. We found that the estimated values of the technological parameter were positively correlated with the GDP. Using the estimated relationship, we predicted future crop yield during 2020 and 2100 under SSP1, SSP2 and SSP3 scenarios and RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The estimated crop yields were different among SSP scenarios. However, we found that the yield difference attributable to SSPs were smaller than those attributable to CO2 fertilization effects and climate change. Particularly, the estimated effect of the change of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration on global yields was more than four times larger than that of GDP for C3 crops.

  8. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  9. Analysis of five simulated straw harvest scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Turhollow Jr, Anthony F; Stephen, Jamie; Stumborg, Mark; Fenton, James; Mani, Sudhagar

    2008-01-01

    Almost 36 million tonnes (t) of cereal grains are harvested annually on more than 16 million hectares (ha) in Canada. The net straw production varies year by year depending upon weather patterns, crop fertility, soil conservation measures, harvest method, and plant variety. The net yield of straw, after discounting for soil conservation, averages approximately 2.5 dry (d)t ha-1. Efficient equipment is needed to collect and package the material as a feedstock for industrial applications. This paper investigates the costs, energy input, and emissions from power equipment used for harvesting straw. Five scenarios were investigated: (1) large square bales, (2) round bales, (3) large compacted stacks (loafs), (4) dried chops, and (5) wet chops. The baled or loafed biomass is stacked next to the farm. Dry chop is collected in a large pile and wet chop is ensiled. The baling and stacking cost was $21.47 dt-1 (dry tonne), with little difference between round and large square baling. Loafing was the cheapest option at $17.08 dt-1. Dry chop and piling was $23.90 dt-1 and wet chop followed by ensiling was $59.75 dt-1. A significant portion of the wet chop cost was in ensiling. Energy input and emissions were proportional to the costs for each system, except for loafing, which required more energy input than the baling systems. As a fraction of the energy content of biomass (roughly 16 GJ dt-1), the energy input ranged from 1.2% for baling to 3.2% for ensiling. Emissions from the power equipment ranged from 20.3 kg CO2e dt-1 to more than 40 kg CO2e dt-1. A sensitivity analysis on the effect of yield on collection costs showed that a 33% increase in yield reduced the cost by 20%. Similarly a sensitivity analysis on weather conditions showed that a 10oC cooler climate extended the harvest period by 5-10 days whereas a 10oC warmer climate shortened the harvest period by 2-3 days.

  10. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  11. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  12. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  13. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE...

  14. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  15. The Future of Florida: Four Scenarios for the Sunshine State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bezold, Clement and Olson, Robert

    1983-01-01

    Looking at four different scenarios for Florida's future--continued growth, new federalism, depression/hurricane, and third wave--can help clarify goals for the future. Each scenario's effect on such key areas as energy use, transportation, water, and education is considered. (IS)

  16. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  17. Application Scenarios for Nonstandard Log-Linear Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mair, Patrick; von Eye, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the authors have 2 aims. First, hierarchical, nonhierarchical, and nonstandard log-linear models are defined. Second, application scenarios are presented for nonhierarchical and nonstandard models, with illustrations of where these scenarios can occur. Parameters can be interpreted in regard to their formal meaning and in regard…

  18. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE must...

  19. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE must...

  20. 10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE must...

  1. Alternative Needs Planning Methods and the Scenario Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-05-23

    that can be used as aids. Consideration will be given to a multidimensional technique for catagorization described by Ducot and Lubben*. In addition...number of such rudimentary scenarios. It is anticipated that five or six might be identified. * Ducot , C. and Lubben, G. J., "A Typology for Scenarios

  2. Online Scenarios for Teaching Internet Ethics to Teens.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Frances F.

    2001-01-01

    At University Laboratory High School, ethics lessons are integrated into the required eight-grade computer literacy course. Six messages are posted online, each containing an ethical scenario. Students add their opinions to each scenario's thread, read each other's postings, and respond to at least one student follow-up message within each topic.…

  3. Decision Driven Scenario Planning for Process-Level Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chemarck, Thomas J.; Payne, Tiffani D.

    2005-01-01

    This article builds on previous work that classified types of scenario planning as effective or relevant for particular situations, by adding consideration for levels within the organization. In addition, the argument is built for using a particular form of scenarios to anticipate or explore process level problems and outcomes. The problem of…

  4. Flying into the future: aviation emissions scenarios to 2050.

    PubMed

    Owen, Bethan; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling

    2010-04-01

    This study describes the methodology and results for calculating future global aviation emissions of carbon dioxide and oxides of nitrogen from air traffic under four of the IPCC/SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) marker scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. In addition, a mitigation scenario has been calculated for the B1 scenario, requiring rapid and significant technology development and transition. A global model of aircraft movements and emissions (FAST) was used to calculate fuel use and emissions to 2050 with a further outlook to 2100. The aviation emission scenarios presented are designed to interpret the SRES and have been developed to aid in the quantification of the climate change impacts of aviation. Demand projections are made for each scenario, determined by SRES economic growth factors and the SRES storylines. Technology trends are examined in detail and developed for each scenario providing plausible projections for fuel efficiency and emissions control technology appropriate to the individual SRES storylines. The technology trends that are applied are calculated from bottom-up inventory calculations and industry technology trends and targets. Future emissions of carbon dioxide are projected to grow between 2000 and 2050 by a factor in the range of 2.0 and 3.6 depending on the scenario. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen associated with aviation over the same period are projected to grow by between a factor of 1.2 and 2.7.

  5. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  6. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    Dog Day scenario .............................................................................................................. 9...Figure 1. Rankings of priority threats identified in the Dog Day scenario ............................... 9 Figure 2. Rankings of priority...potential threats (e.g., a statement indicating that bomb sniffing dogs kept returning to a specific location); this allowed for more certainty in

  7. Student Experience of a Scenario-Centred Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-01-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and…

  8. ImmunoScenarios: A Game for the Immune System.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Mark F.; Jackson, Sally W.

    1996-01-01

    Describes a board game, ImmunoScenarios, which was developed to reinforce the ideas about the immune system discussed in lecture classes. Emphasizes important characteristics of the body's specific defense system including specificity, cooperation among various cells, and memory. Includes directions for playing, student handouts, and scenarios.…

  9. Scenario Based E-Learning in Electrical Engineering Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tambunan, Hamonangan; Dalimunte, Amirhud; Silitonga, Marsangkap

    2017-01-01

    The scenario based e-learning in Electrical Engineering Education Learning (EEEL) was developed by covering the scope and characteristics of all subjects and the competence unit of graduates in the field of pedagogy, professional, social and personality, with url addresed http://jpte-ft-unimed.edu20.org. The scenario incorporates the concept of…

  10. Application Scenarios for Nonstandard Log-Linear Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mair, Patrick; von Eye, Alexander

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the authors have 2 aims. First, hierarchical, nonhierarchical, and nonstandard log-linear models are defined. Second, application scenarios are presented for nonhierarchical and nonstandard models, with illustrations of where these scenarios can occur. Parameters can be interpreted in regard to their formal meaning and in regard…

  11. A climate-change scenario for the Columbia River Basin.

    Treesearch

    Sue A. Ferguson

    1997-01-01

    This work describes the method used to generate a climate-change scenario for the Columbia River basin. The scenario considers climate patterns that may change if the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (C02), or its greenhouse gas equivalent, were to double over pre-Industrial Revolution values. Given the current rate of increase in...

  12. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  13. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    SciTech Connect

    Edeling, W.N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R.P.

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  14. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  15. Student Experience of a Scenario-Centred Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-01-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and…

  16. Summary of student scenarios: 2020 Vision project, fiscal year 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Gordon, K.W.; Munoz, A.; Scott, K.P.; Rinne, R.

    1997-11-01

    The Strategic Issues Thinking: 2020 Vision project introduces students and teaches to national security issues through the techniques of scenario building, and engages them in an interactive process of creating scenarios relevant to the Department of Energy, Defense Programs (DOE/DP). Starting with the world as it is today, teams of students develop a series of scenarios on international developments over the next 25 years under various circumstances. This report identifies recurrent themes in the student`s scenarios, lists creative ways the students presented their scenarios, compares and contrasts the program`s FY97 results with FY96 results, identifies the benefits of the program, and offers a glimpse of Sandia`s future plans for the 2020 Vision project.

  17. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-04-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology.

  18. Innovation Design of Persimmon Processing Equipment Driven by Future Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duan, Xiao-fei; Su, Xiu-juan; Guan, Lei; Zhang, Wei-she

    2017-07-01

    This article aims to discuss the methods of innovative by future scenarios design, to help the designers be more effective of the design of persimmon processing machinery. By analyzing the persimmon traditional processing process, conceiving persimmon processing future scenarios and using the UXD and Morphological matrix, it can get the comprehensive function schemes. It Select the most optimal schemes which match the future scenarios best by illustrating the schematic design of the rotary-light Dried-persimmon Processing Machinery. It is feasible and effective to carry out the scenario design research and construct the reasonable future scenario, and combine the function analysis method to carry on the product plan innovation and the development.

  19. European scenarios for exposure of soil organisms to pesticides.

    PubMed

    Tiktak, Aaldrik; Boesten, Jos J T I; Egsmose, Mark; Gardi, Ciro; Klein, Michael; Vanderborght, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Standardised exposure scenarios play an important role in European pesticide authorisation procedures (a scenario is a combination of climate, weather and crop data to be used in exposure models). The European Food Safety Authority developed such scenarios for the assessment of exposure of soil organisms to pesticides. Scenarios were needed for both the concentration in total soil and for the concentration in the liquid phase. The goal of the exposure assessment is the 90th percentile of the exposure concentration in the area of agricultural use of a pesticide in each of three regulatory European zones (North, Centre and South). A statistical approach was adopted to find scenarios that are consistent with this exposure goal. Scenario development began with the simulation of the concentration distribution in the entire area of use by means of a simple analytical model. In the subsequent two steps, procedures were applied to account for parameter uncertainty and scenario uncertainty (i.e. the likelihood that a scenario that is derived for one pesticide is not conservative enough for another pesticide). In the final step, the six scenarios were selected by defining their average air temperature, soil organic-matter content and their soil textural class. Organic matter of the selected scenarios decreased in the order North-Centre-South. Because organic matter has a different effect on the concentration in total soil than it has on the concentration in the liquid phase, the concentration in total soil decreased in the order North-Centre-South whereas the concentration in the liquid phase decreased in the opposite order. The concentration differences between the three regulatory zones appeared to be no more than a factor of two. These differences were comparatively small in view of the considerable differences in climate and soil properties between the three zones.

  20. SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Economic Impacts and Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

    2013-12-01

    Business interruption (BI) losses for the SAFRR tsunami scenario are derived from the forecasted physical damages of about 100 million at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach (LB), and 700 million in marina damages, and 2 billion in inundated property damages along the California coast. Economic impacts are measured by the reduction in California's gross domestic product (GDP). The analysis involves several steps. First, estimates are made of immediate business interruption losses due to physical damage to facilities or to disruption of production. Second, total economic impacts (consisting of both direct and indirect effects) are measured by a general equilibrium (quantity and price multiplier effects) of lost production in other sectors through ripple effects upstream and downstream along the supply chain. Third, many types of resilience are applied to demonstrate their potential reductions of the impacts. At the Ports of LA and LB, a two-day port shutdown, cargo losses, and additional terminal downtimes would expose 1.2 billion of trade (import and export) value associated with over 4 billion of BI losses. The sectors potentially most affected by trade disruptions are leather, metal, and motor vehicle manufacturing. Excess capacity, inventories, export conversion, and conservation could reduce the direct trade impacts by 85%. Production recapture alone (including clearing the backlog of waiting ships) could reduce BI losses by 85%. The Port of LA commercial fishing would be subject to damages to the fleet, perished fish that cannot be landed, and lost fishing days. Although BI losses are relatively small, the southern Californian fishing sector could incur a 4% drop in output. The impacts would depend on the speed at which boats are repaired and whether lost fishing days can be made up. Ship-building and repair could also be negatively affected, but these impacts would be offset somewhat by reconstruction. Effects on commercial fishing in other locations

  1. Analyses of Scenarios for Past and Possible Future Aircraft Emissions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Patten, Kenneth O.; Rahmes, Tim

    1997-01-01

    This project contains several components to work with the NASA AEAP program in better definition of scenarios for aircraft emissions and in determining the sensitivity of the atmosphere to such emissions. Under this project, Don Wuebbles continues as chair of the Operations and Emissions Scenarios Committee for AEAP. We are also coordinating with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) to ensure the highest quality possible in the emissions scenarios promoted by the Emissions Scenarios committee. We continue to help coordination of NASA AEAP with international activities. This includes work with ICAO towards international analysis of aircraft emissions inventories; performing analyses to compare and evaluate databases of aircraft emissions developed for NASA and by various international groups and from these analyses, develop guidelines for future emissions scenarios development. Special sensitivity analyses, using our two-dimensional chemical-transport model of the global troposphere and stratosphere, have been used to determine potential sensitivity of further enhancements that could be made to emissions scenarios development. The latter studies are to be used in prioritizing further emissions scenario development.

  2. Solid waste management scenarios for Cetinje in Montenegro.

    PubMed

    Yetis, Ulku; Jakobsen, Jens Bjørn; Dilek, Filiz B; Kıyık, Enver; Mugoša, Sanja; Novović, Jadranka; Kerestecioglu, Merih

    2015-05-01

    This study presents the options for source-segregation and selective collection of recyclable waste fractions for Cetinje, Montenegro, with the aim of meeting the European Union 50% waste recycling target in 2023, and extending collection and disposal system that builds on the existing strengths of the city. To this end, three options were considered: (1) source separation and separate collection of dry recyclable materials and central sorting of residual waste; (2) source separation and collection of co-mingled dry recyclable materials, and central sorting in a clean material recovery facility of comingled recyclables and central sorting of residual waste; (3) collection of mixed waste (current situation) and subsequent central sorting. Scenarios 1 and 2 were found to meet the European Union 50% recycling target in 2023, provided that a fast implementation of the new separate collection schemes to fine sort the co-mingled collected recyclable materials is available. Finally, a financial evaluation was made for the options and the investment and operational costs over a 20-year period were estimated. Unit costs for Scenario 3 were found to be lower than for Scenario 1 and 2. As Scenario 3 will not meet the future European Union recycling targets, Scenario 2 has been pointed as the most feasible scenario for Cetinje, with reference to the expected lower total costs compared with Scenario 1.

  3. Assessing global fossil fuel availability in a scenario framework

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Hilaire, Jérôme; Brecha, Robert J.; Edmonds, Jae; Jiang, Kejun; Kriegler, Elmar; Rogner, Hans-Holger; Sferra, Fabio

    2016-06-01

    This study assesses global, long-term economic availability of coal, oil and gas within the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenario framework considering alternative assumptions as to highly uncertain future developments of technology, policy and the economy. Diverse sets of trajectories are formulated varying the challenges to mitigation and adaptation of climate change. The potential CO2 emissions from fossil fuels make it a crucial element subject to deep uncertainties. The analysis is based on a well-established data set of cost-quantity combinations that assumes favorable techno-economic developments, but ignores additional constraints on the extraction sector. This study significantly extends that analysis to include alternative assumptions for the fossil fuel sector consistent with the SSP scenario families and applies these filters to the original data set, thus resulting in alternative cumulative fossil fuel availability curves. In a Middle-of-the-Road scenario, low cost fossil fuels embody carbon consistent with a RCP6.0 emission profile, if all the CO2 were emitted freely during the 21st century. In scenarios with high challenges to mitigation, the assumed embodied carbon in low-cost fossil fuels can trigger a RCP8.5 scenario; low mitigation challenges scenarios are still consistent with a RCP4.5 scenario.

  4. Scoping Future Policy Dynamics in Raw Materials Through Scenarios Testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Correia, Vitor; Keane, Christopher; Sturm, Flavius; Schimpf, Sven; Bodo, Balazs

    2017-04-01

    The International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW) project is working towards a sustainable future for the European Union in access to raw materials, from an availability, economical, and environmental framework. One of the major exercises for the INTRAW project is the evaluation of potential future scenarios for 2050 to frame economic, research, and environmental policy towards a sustainable raw materials supply. The INTRAW consortium developed three possible future scenarios that encompass defined regimes of political, economic, and technological norms. The first scenario, "Unlimited Trade," reflects a world in which free trade continues to dominate the global political and economic environment, with expectations of a growing demand for raw materials from widely distributed global growth. The "National Walls" scenario reflects a world where nationalism and economic protectionism begins to dominate, leading to stagnating economic growth and uneven dynamics in raw materials supply and demand. The final scenario, "Sustainability Alliance," examines the dynamics of a global political and economic climate that is focused on environmental and economic sustainability, leading towards increasingly towards a circular raw materials economy. These scenarios were reviewed, tested, and provided simulations of impacts with members of the Consortium and a panel of global experts on international raw materials issues which led to expected end conditions for 2050. Given the current uncertainty in global politics, these scenarios are informative to identifying likely opportunities and crises. The details of these simulations and expected responses to the research demand, technology investments, and economic components of raw materials system will be discussed.

  5. Impact of stress on resident performance in simulated trauma scenarios.

    PubMed

    Harvey, Adrian; Bandiera, Glen; Nathens, Avery B; LeBlanc, Vicki R

    2012-02-01

    Training and practice in medicine are inherently stressful. The effects of stress on performance in clinical situations are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to examine the stress responses and clinical performance of residents during low and high stress (HS) simulated trauma resuscitations. Thirteen emergency medicine and general surgery residents were evaluated in HS and low stress (LS) trauma resuscitation simulations. Subjective and physiologic (heart rate, salivary cortisol) responses were measured at baseline and in response to the scenarios. Performance was assessed with global rating and checklist scores of technical performance, time to record critical information, and the Anesthesia Non-Technical Skills tool. Post-scenario recall was assessed with the completion of a standardized trauma history form. Post-scenario subjective stress and cortisol levels were higher in the HS scenario compared with the LS scenario (p < 0.05). Checklist performance scores and post-scenario recall were significantly lower in the HS compared with the LS condition (p < 0.05). In trainees, some aspects of performance and immediate recall appear to be impaired in complex clinical scenarios in which they exhibit elevated subjective and physiologic stress responses. The findings of this study highlight a potential threat to patient safety and demand further investigation. Future studies should strive to further elucidate the effects of stress on specific components of performance and investigate ways to reduce its negative impact. Copyright © 2012 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

  6. Towards the new CH2018 climate scenarios for Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Schär, Christoph; Croci-Maspoli, Mischa; Knutti, Reto; Liniger, Mark; Strassmann, Kuno

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing demand for regional assessments of future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems to inform and facilitate appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are consistent and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). Since then, new climate model simulations have become available and the scientific understanding has improved. It is hence desirable to update these national scenarios. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS), a network consisting of several federal offices and academic partners. The CH2018 scenarios will build primarily upon the latest Euro-CORDEX regional climate model simulations assuming different pathways of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Compared to CH2011, more emphasis will be put on changes in extremes and in putting the projected changes in the context of observed variability. Results of a recently conducted survey on end-user needs in Switzerland will guide the development process toward the CH2018 scenarios. It ensures that the scenarios are presented and communicated in a user-oriented format and find a wide applicability across different sectors in Switzerland. In the presentation we will show the full methodological setup to generate the CH2018 scenarios and how consistency across the methods and products is maximized. First results on mean changes and selected indices will be presented. In terms of dissemination, the results of the user survey show the necessity to address all different user types of climate scenarios, especially the non-experts. Compared to CH2011, this implies a stronger focus on consulting, condensing complex information and providing tutorials. In the presentation, we will outline our plans on dissemination in order to adequately

  7. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Balducci, Patrick J.

    2008-04-03

    This report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The report presents and examines a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representative contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs are presented from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. Each scenario is examined and implications for PHEV development are explored.

  8. Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wein, A.

    2010-12-01

    The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

  9. Integrated Modelling of Iter Hybrid Scenarios with Eccd

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giruzzi, G.; Artaud, J. F.; Basiuk, V.; Garcia, J.; Imbeaux, F.; Schneider, M.

    2009-04-01

    ITER hybrid scenarios may require off-axis current drive in order to keep the safety factor above 1. In this type of applications, alignment of the current sources and self-consistency of current and temperature profiles are critical issues, which can only be addressed by integrated modelling. To this end, the CRONOS suite of codes has been applied to the simulation of these scenarios. Results of simulations of ITER hybrid scenarios assisted by ECCD, using the ITER equatorial launcher, for both co- and counter-ECCD, are presented.

  10. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    SciTech Connect

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  11. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  12. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  13. Model Performance Evaluation and Scenario Analysis (MPESA) Tutorial

    EPA Science Inventory

    This tool consists of two parts: model performance evaluation and scenario analysis (MPESA). The model performance evaluation consists of two components: model performance evaluation metrics and model diagnostics. These metrics provides modelers with statistical goodness-of-fit m...

  14. Developing a Scenario for widespread use: Best practices, lessons learned

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perry, S.; Jones, L.; Cox, D.

    2011-01-01

    The ShakeOut Scenario is probably the most widely known and used earthquake scenario created to date. Much of the credit for its widespread dissemination and application lies with scenario development criteria that focused on the needs and involvement of end users and with a suite of products that tailored communication of the results to varied end users, who ranged from emergency managers to the general public, from corporations to grassroots organizations. Products were most effective when they were highly visual, when they emphasized the findings of social scientists, and when they communicated the experience of living through the earthquake. This paper summarizes the development criteria and the products that made the ShakeOut Scenario so widely known and used, and it provides some suggestions for future improvements. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  15. Scenario evolution: Interaction between event tree construction and numerical analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Barr, G.E.; Barnard, R.W.; Dockery, H.A.; Dunn, E.; MacIntyre, A.T.

    1990-12-31

    Construction of well-posed scenarios for the range of conditions possible at any proposed repository site is a critical first step to assessing total system performance. Event tree construction is the method that is being used to develop potential failure scenarios for the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. An event tree begins with an initial event or condition. Subsequent events are listed in a sequence, leading eventually to release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. Ensuring the validity of the scenarios requires iteration between problems constructed using scenarios contained in the event tree sequence, experimental results, and numerical analyses. Details not adequately captured within the tree initially may become more apparent as a result of analyses. To illustrate this process, the authors discuss the iterations used to develop numerical analyses for PACE-90 (Performance Assessment Calculational Exercises) using basaltic igneous activity and human-intrusion event trees.

  16. 2nd Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Potential Commercial Development Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Creech, Stephen D.; Rogacki, John R. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The presentation will discuss potential commercial development scenarios for a Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle. The analysis of potential scenarios will include commercial rates of return, government return on investment, and market considerations. The presentation will include policy considerations in addition to analysis of Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle economics. The data discussed is being developed as a part of NASA's Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program, for consideration as potential scenarios for enabling a next generation system. Material will include potential scenarios not previously considered by NASA or presented at other conferences. Candidate paper has not been presented at a previous meeting, and conference attendance of the author has been approved by NASA.

  17. Student experience of a scenario-centred curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bell, Sarah; Galilea, Patricia; Tolouei, Reza

    2010-06-01

    In 2006 UCL implemented new scenario-centred degree programmes in Civil and Environmental Engineering. The new curriculum can be characterised as a hybrid of problem-based, project-based and traditional approaches to learning. Four times a year students work in teams for one week on a scenario which aims to integrate learning from lecture and laboratory classes and to develop generic skills including team working and communication. Student experience of the first two years the old and new curricula were evaluated using a modified Course Experience Questionnaire. The results showed that students on the new programme were motivated by the scenarios and perceived better generic skills development, but had a lower perception of teaching quality and the development of design skills. The results of the survey support the implementation new curriculum but highlight the importance of strong integration between conventional teaching and scenarios, and the challenges of adapting teaching styles to suit.

  18. Methods for Developing Emissions Scenarios for Integrated Assessment Models

    SciTech Connect

    Prinn, Ronald; Webster, Mort

    2007-08-20

    The overall objective of this research was to contribute data and methods to support the future development of new emissions scenarios for integrated assessment of climate change. Specifically, this research had two main objectives: 1. Use historical data on economic growth and energy efficiency changes, and develop probability density functions (PDFs) for the appropriate parameters for two or three commonly used integrated assessment models. 2. Using the parameter distributions developed through the first task and previous work, we will develop methods of designing multi-gas emission scenarios that usefully span the joint uncertainty space in a small number of scenarios. Results on the autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) parameter are summarized, an uncertainty analysis of elasticities of substitution is described, and the probabilistic emissions scenario approach is presented.

  19. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pendergrass, Angeline; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-04-01

    The rate of increase of global-mean precipitation per degree surface temperature increase differs for greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, and therefore depends on the change in composition of the emissions scenario used to drive climate model simulations for the remainder of the century. We investigate whether or not this is also the case for extreme precipitation simulated by a multi-model ensemble driven by four realistic emissions scenarios. In most models, the rate of increase of maximum annual daily rainfall per degree global warming in the multi-model ensemble is statistically indistinguishable across the four scenarios, whether this extreme precipitation is calculated globally, over all land, or over extra-tropical land. These results indicate that, in most models, extreme precipitation depends on the total amount of warming and does not depend on emissions scenario, in contrast to mean precipitation.

  20. Economic Analysis of Different Electric Vehicle Charging Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ying, Li; Haiming, Zhou; Xiufan, Ma; Hao, Wang

    2017-05-01

    Influence of electric vehicles (EV) to grid cannot be ignored. Research on the economy analysis of different charging scenarios is helpful to guide the user to charge or discharge orderly. EV charging models are built such as disordered charging, valley charging, intelligent charging, and V2G (Vehicle to Grid), by which changes of charging load in different scenarios can be seen to analyze the influence to initial load curve, and comparison can be done about user’s average cost. Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the electric vehicle charging behavior, cost in different charging scenarios are compared, social cost is introduced in V2G scene, and the relationship between user’s average cost and social cost is analyzed. By test, it is proved that user’s cost is the lowest in V2G scenario, and the larger the scale of vehicles is, the more the social cost can save.

  1. War 2010: The Emergence of the Wild Card Scenario.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    confronting military professionals presented with prophecy-based predictions and the adequacy of the threat-based analysis system to prepare the US armed forces for future conflict in a wild card scenario.

  2. Technical Feasibility Assessment of Lunar Base Mission Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magelssen, Trygve ``Spike''; Sadeh, Eligar

    2005-02-01

    Investigation of the literature pertaining to lunar base (LB) missions and the technologies required for LB development has revealed an information gap that hinders technical feasibility assessment. This information gap is the absence of technical readiness levels (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) and information pertaining to the criticality of the critical enabling technologies (CETs) that enable mission success. TRL is a means of identifying technical readiness stages of a technology. Criticality is defined as the level of influence the CET has on the mission scenario. The hypothesis of this research study is that technical feasibility is a function of technical readiness and technical readiness is a function of criticality. A newly developed research analysis method is used to identify the technical feasibility of LB mission scenarios. A Delphi is used to ascertain technical readiness levels and CET criticality-to-mission. The research analysis method is applied to the Delphi results to determine the technical feasibility of the LB mission scenarios that include: observatory, science research, lunar settlement, space exploration gateway, space resource utilization, and space tourism. The CETs identified encompasses four major system level technologies of: transportation, life support, structures, and power systems. Results of the technical feasibility assessment show the observatory and science research LB mission scenarios to be more technical ready out of all the scenarios, but all mission scenarios are in very close proximity to each other in regard to criticality and TRL and no one mission scenario stands out as being absolutely more technically ready than any of the other scenarios. What is significant and of value are the Delphi results concerning CET criticality-to-mission and the TRL values evidenced in the Tables that can be used by anyone assessing the technical feasibility of LB missions.

  3. Two scenarios for avalanche dynamics in inclined granular layers.

    PubMed

    Börzsönyi, Tamás; Halsey, Thomas C; Ecke, Robert E

    2005-05-27

    We report experimental measurements of avalanche behavior of thin granular layers on an inclined plane for low volume flow rate. The dynamical properties of avalanches were quantitatively and qualitatively different for smooth glass beads compared to irregular granular materials such as sand. Two scenarios for granular avalanches on an incline are identified, and a theoretical explanation for these different scenarios is developed based on a depth-averaged approach that takes into account the differing rheologies of the granular materials.

  4. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-04-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  5. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-05-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissions of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP ("Representative Concentration Pathway") emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18% and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due to lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a simpler downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario, which results in higher emissions from megacities. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities, with mixing ratios of background ozone projected to play an increasing role in megacity air quality throughout the 21st century. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results; future generations of emissions scenarios should include spatially explicit representations or urban development suitable for air quality studies using global chemical transport models.

  6. Megacity ozone air quality under four alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Butler, T. M.; Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Lawrence, M. G.

    2012-01-01

    The impact of the megacities of the world on global tropospheric ozone, and conversely, the extent to which megacities are influenced by emissios of ozone precursors from outside of the megacities is examined under the four alternative RCP (''Representative Concentration Pathway'') emissions scenarios. Despite accounting for about 6% of present-day anthropogenic emissions of ozone precursor species, the contribution of emissions from megacities to global tropospheric ozone is calculated to be 0.84%. By 2100 this contribution falls to between 0.18 and 0.62% depending on the scenario, with the lower value being for the most-polluting of the four future emissions scenarios due to stringent controls on ozone precursor emissions from highly populated areas combined with a stronger tropospheric background ozone field. The higher end of this range is from the least-polluting of the four emissions scenarios, due lower background tropospheric ozone combined with the use of a different downscaling methodology in the construction of the scenario. Although the absolute impact of megacities on global ozone is small, an important result of this study is that under all future scenarios, future air quality in megacities is expected to be less influenced by local emissions within the cities, but instead more influenced by emission sources outside of the cities. Air quality trends in the megacities of the developing world are projected to be similar to observed trends in developed world megacities over the last few decades. Assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids used in such modelling studies can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models.

  7. Developing Effective Case Scenarios for Interprofessional Electronic Health Record Research.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Kristie; Courtney, Karen L; Frisch, Noreen

    2017-01-01

    In the last decade, there have been numerous calls for research in interprofessional communication and documentation. Some of the limitations of research in this area have been proprietary user interfaces that may not be generalizable and impact varying adoption rates of electronic documentation among different health disciplines. In order to address these concerns, researchers need to create standardized case scenarios as research instruments. This paper outlines the process for developing a case scenario instrument for use in interprofessional electronic documentation research.

  8. Usability standards meet scenario-based design: challenges and opportunities.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Christopher J; Blandford, Ann

    2015-02-01

    The focus of this paper is on the challenges and opportunities presented by developing scenarios of use for interactive medical devices. Scenarios are integral to the international standard for usability engineering of medical devices (IEC 62366:2007), and are also applied to the development of health software (draft standard IEC 82304-1). The 62366 standard lays out a process for mitigating risk during normal use (i.e. use as per the instructions, or accepted medical practice). However, this begs the question of whether "real use" (that which occurs in practice) matches "normal use". In this paper, we present an overview of the product lifecycle and how it impacts on the type of scenario that can be practically applied. We report on the development and testing of a set of scenarios intended to inform the design of infusion pumps based on "real use". The scenarios were validated by researchers and practitioners experienced in clinical practice, and their utility was assessed by developers and practitioners representing different stages of the product lifecycle. These evaluations highlighted previously unreported challenges and opportunities for the use of scenarios in this context. Challenges include: integrating scenario-based design with usability engineering practice; covering the breadth of uses of infusion devices; and managing contradictory evidence. Opportunities included scenario use beyond design to guide marketing, to inform purchasing and as resources for training staff. This study exemplifies one empirically grounded approach to communicating and negotiating the realities of practice. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Scenario aggregation for supply chain quantity-flexibility contract

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Gitae; Wu, Chih-Hang

    2013-11-01

    In this research, we apply a scenario aggregation approach to solving the supply chain contract model formulated by two-stage stochastic programming problem. The supply chain contract can achieve the coordination between the buyer and the supplier. We formulate the stochastic programming model for a quantity-flexibility contract. The scenario aggregation method called the progressive hedging method is used to solve this problem. Experimental results show the convergence behaviour of the algorithm and the sensitivity of parameters.

  10. Assessing Threat Detection Scenarios through Hypothesis Generation and Testing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-12-01

    cues identified, at either the collapsed level, F(1, 57) = 0.31, p = .58, partial eta2 = .005, or treating each scenario independently, Greenhouse ...therefore, subsequent F statistics are reported using the Huynh-Feldt correction ( Greenhouse -Geisser Epsilon > .775). Experienced and inexperienced...scenario on confidence, Greenhouse -Geisser corrected F(2.79, 142.37) = 1.00, p = .39, partial eta2 = .019. Overall, both experienced and inexperienced

  11. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  12. Plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in Sweden in 2025.

    PubMed

    Björkman, B; Fridell, K; Tavakol Olofsson, P

    2017-11-01

    Radiography is a healthcare speciality with many technical challenges. Advances in engineering and information technology applications may continue to drive and be driven by radiographers. The world of diagnostic imaging is changing rapidly and radiographers must be proactive in order to survive. To ensure sustainable development, organisations have to identify future opportunities and threats in a timely manner and incorporate them into their strategic planning. Hence, the aim of this study was to analyse and describe plausible scenarios for the radiography profession in 2025. The study has a qualitative design with an inductive approach based on focus group interviews. The interviews were inspired by the Scenario-Planning method. Of the seven trends identified in a previous study, the radiographers considered two as the most uncertain scenarios that would have the greatest impact on the profession should they occur. These trends, labelled "Access to career advancement" and "A sufficient number of radiographers", were inserted into the scenario cross. The resulting four plausible future scenarios were: The happy radiographer, the specialist radiographer, the dying profession and the assembly line. It is suggested that "The dying profession" scenario could probably be turned in the opposite direction by facilitating career development opportunities for radiographers within the profession. Changing the direction would probably lead to a profession composed of "happy radiographers" who are specialists, proud of their profession and competent to carry out advanced tasks, in contrast to being solely occupied by "the assembly line". Copyright © 2017 The College of Radiographers. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modeling framework for exploring emission impacts of alternative future scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loughlin, D. H.; Benjey, W. G.; Nolte, C. G.

    2010-11-01

    This article presents an approach for creating anthropogenic emission scenarios that can be used to simulate future regional air quality. The approach focuses on energy production and use since these are principal sources of air pollution. We use the MARKAL model to characterize alternative realizations of the US energy system through 2050. Emission growth factors are calculated for major energy system categories using MARKAL, while growth factors from non-energy sectors are based on economic and population projections. The SMOKE model uses these factors to grow a base-year 2002 inventory to future years through 2050. The approach is demonstrated for two emission scenarios: Scenario 1 extends current air regulations through 2050, while Scenario 2 applies a hypothetical policy that limits carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy system. Although both scenarios show significant reductions in air pollutant emissions through time, these reductions are more pronounced in Scenario 2, where the CO2 policy results in the adoption of technologies with lower emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants. The methodology is expected to play an important role in investigations of linkages among emission drivers, climate and air quality by the U.S. EPA and others.

  14. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century.

    PubMed

    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Rolinski, Susanne; Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries.

  15. Global Food Demand Scenarios for the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Biewald, Anne; Weindl, Isabelle; Popp, Alexander; Lotze-Campen, Hermann

    2015-01-01

    Long-term food demand scenarios are an important tool for studying global food security and for analysing the environmental impacts of agriculture. We provide a simple and transparent method to create scenarios for future plant-based and animal-based calorie demand, using time-dependent regression models between calorie demand and income. The scenarios can be customized to a specific storyline by using different input data for gross domestic product (GDP) and population projections and by assuming different functional forms of the regressions. Our results confirm that total calorie demand increases with income, but we also found a non-income related positive time-trend. The share of animal-based calories is estimated to rise strongly with income for low-income groups. For high income groups, two ambiguous relations between income and the share of animal-based products are consistent with historical data: First, a positive relation with a strong negative time-trend and second a negative relation with a slight negative time-trend. The fits of our regressions are highly significant and our results compare well to other food demand estimates. The method is exemplarily used to construct four food demand scenarios until the year 2100 based on the storylines of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). We find in all scenarios a strong increase of global food demand until 2050 with an increasing share of animal-based products, especially in developing countries. PMID:26536124

  16. Scenario planning: a tool for academic health sciences libraries.

    PubMed

    Ludwig, Logan; Giesecke, Joan; Walton, Linda

    2010-03-01

    Review the International Campaign to Revitalise Academic Medicine (ICRAM) Future Scenarios as a potential starting point for developing scenarios to envisage plausible futures for health sciences libraries. At an educational workshop, 15 groups, each composed of four to seven Association of Academic Health Sciences Libraries (AAHSL) directors and AAHSL/NLM Fellows, created plausible stories using the five ICRAM scenarios. Participants created 15 plausible stories regarding roles played by health sciences librarians, how libraries are used and their physical properties in response to technology, scholarly communication, learning environments and health care economic changes. Libraries are affected by many forces, including economic pressures, curriculum and changes in technology, health care delivery and scholarly communications business models. The future is likely to contain ICRAM scenario elements, although not all, and each, if they come to pass, will impact health sciences libraries. The AAHSL groups identified common features in their scenarios to learn lessons for now. The hope is that other groups find the scenarios useful in thinking about academic health science library futures.

  17. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbook (EFH) on how to select data from the EFH to assess childhood exposures. The scenarios presented in this report promote the use of the standard set of age groups recommended by the U.S. EPA in the report entitled Guidance on Selecting Age Groups for Monitoring and Assessing Childhood Exposures to Environmental Contaminants (U.S. EPA 2005). The purpose of the Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples Report is to outline scenarios for various child-specific exposure pathways and to demonstrate how data from the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2011) may be applied for estimating exposures. The handbook provides data on drinking water consumption, soil ingestion, mouthing behavior, inhalation rates, dermal factors including skin area and soil adherence factors, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish, meats, dairy products, homegrown foods, human milk, activity patterns, body weight, and consumer products. The example scenarios presented here have been selected to best demonstrate the use of the various key data sets in the Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2008a), and represent commonly encountered exposure pathways. An exhausti

  18. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbook (EFH) on how to select data from the EFH to assess childhood exposures. The scenarios presented in this report promote the use of the standard set of age groups recommended by the U.S. EPA in the report entitled Guidance on Selecting Age Groups for Monitoring and Assessing Childhood Exposures to Environmental Contaminants (U.S. EPA 2005). The purpose of the Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples Report is to outline scenarios for various child-specific exposure pathways and to demonstrate how data from the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2011) may be applied for estimating exposures. The handbook provides data on drinking water consumption, soil ingestion, mouthing behavior, inhalation rates, dermal factors including skin area and soil adherence factors, consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish, meats, dairy products, homegrown foods, human milk, activity patterns, body weight, and consumer products. The example scenarios presented here have been selected to best demonstrate the use of the various key data sets in the Child-Specific Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA, 2008a), and represent commonly encountered exposure pathways. An exhausti

  19. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

  20. What roles for viruses in origin of life scenarios?

    PubMed

    Kostyrka, Gladys

    2016-10-01

    Important roles in origin of life (OL) scenarios have been and still are attributed to viruses. Yet the strict dependence of viruses on cells for their multiplication has been widely acknowledged since the first decades of the 20th century. How could viruses play critical roles in the OL if life relies on cellular organization and if viruses are defined as parasites of cells? In other words, how could viruses play a role in the emergence of cellular life if the existence of cells is a prerequisite for the existence of viruses? This paper investigates this issue and describes past and current OL scenarios conferring viruses with important roles, thereby completing the work of historian of science and physician Scott Podolsky who identified three major roles of viruses in past OL scenarios. Some objections raised by present OL scenarios conferring viruses with an important role are discussed. I argue that disagreements concerning the roles of viruses in OL scenarios stem from the different concepts of life and of virus scientists defend. Investigating the roles of viruses in OL scenarios not only helps identifying different ways to define life in the context of OL theorizing. It also offers the opportunity to better understand how viruses could be conceptualized. The relevance of the replication-first versus metabolism-first dichotomy in OL theorizing is briefly discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Scenario Development Process at the Vertical Motion Simulator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reardon, Scott E.; Beard, Steven D.; Lewis, Emily

    2017-01-01

    There has been a significant effort within the simulation community to standardize many aspects of flight simulation. More recently, an effort has begun to develop a formal scenario definition language for aviation. A working group within the AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has been created to develop a standard aviation scenario definition language, though much of the initial effort has been tailored to training simulators. Research and development (R&D) simulators, like the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), and training simulators have different missions and thus have different scenario requirements. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the unique tasks and scenario elements used at the VMS so they may be captured by scenario standardization efforts. The VMS most often performs handling qualities studies and transfer of training studies. Three representative handling qualities simulation studies and two transfer of training simulation studies are described in this paper. Unique scenario elements discussed in this paper included special out-the-window (OTW) targets and environmental conditions, motion system parameters, active inceptor parameters, and configurable vehicle math model parameters.

  2. Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

    2016-04-01

    There is a growing demand to assess and inform about future climate change and its impacts on society and ecosystems and to deduce appropriate adaptation strategies. The basis for such assessments are reliable and up-to-date climate change scenarios on the local to regional scale. In Switzerland, an important step has been accomplished by the release of the climate scenarios in 2011 ("CH2011"). New climate model simulations, an improved scientific understanding and new statistical downscaling tools make an update of these scenarios necessary. An important component toward the new national scenarios "CH2018" are the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user-tailored and hence find a wide applicability. The new CH2018 scenarios are developed in the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS). To get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need, a comprehensive market research was undertaken. The survey targeted the most climate-relevant sectors, and considered representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, as well as a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users. Additionally, two workshops were organized to gather the needs in dissemination of climate scenarios. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the user needs according to the level of usage: "intensive users" are mainly researchers who handle large climate scenario data for further use in subsequent impact studies; "extensive users" are usually from administrations or consulting companies and perform simple calculations for specific questions or use provided graphics and tables; "facilitators" are usually from media, NGOs or schools and process and disseminate scenario information for a specific target group. The less intensive the usage of climate

  3. Development and Use of the Stochastic Climate Change Scenario Generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Hayes, M.; Svoboda, M. D.; Zalud, Z.

    2009-12-01

    The volume of GCM simulations available for climate change impact studies continually increases. This allows for better representation of uncertainties (between GCMs, between emission scenarios, between parameterizations, etc.), but, simultaneously, the volume of available GCM output data has become so large such that it poses a strong requirement for more effective organization of climate change impact analyses. In implementing the multi-model information for a given impact analysis, only scenarios from a subset of all available GCMs are mostly employed. Less frequently, the impact analysis is based on scenarios processed from all of the GCMs. However, this is not applicable in cases where an ensemble of GCM simulations is too large (for example, when dealing with the perturbed-physics ensemble available from climateprediction.net project). In such cases, one may use scenario emulators/generators, which may produce a large set of climate change scenarios representing the whole multivariate probability distribution function of the scenarios. In the first part of the presentation, the underlying model of the scenario generator is introduced. The generator is based on a multivariate parametric model whose parameters are derived from a set of GCM based scenarios (no limit on the size of the set, the model may also be calibrated with a very large perturbed-physics ensemble). Once calibrated, the generator may produce an arbitrarily large set of climate change scenarios. These scenarios consist of changes in monthly means and variabilities, and are easily linked with the stochastic weather generator M&Rfi, which produces daily weather series to be used as an input to the impact models. In the second part, the weather series produced by the weather generator linked to the scenario generator are used to make a probabilistic assessment of the climate change impacts on four soil climate parameters: (i) the length of vegetation window (number of days with suitable soil

  4. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  5. User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

  6. Cascadia Earthquake and Tsunami Scenario for California's North Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dengler, L.

    2006-12-01

    In 1995 the California Division of Mines and Geology (now the California Geological Survey) released a planning scenario for an earthquake on the southern portion of the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ). This scenario was the 8th and last of the Earthquake Planning Scenarios published by CDMG. It was the largest magnitude CDMG scenario, an 8.4 earthquake rupturing the southern 200 km of the CSZ, and it was the only scenario to include tsunami impacts. This scenario event has not occurred in historic times and depicts impacts far more severe than any recent earthquake. The local tsunami hazard is new; there is no written record of significant local tsunami impact in the region. The north coast scenario received considerable attention in Humboldt and Del Norte Counties and contributed to a number of mitigation efforts. The Redwood Coast Tsunami Work Group (RCTWG), an organization of scientists, emergency managers, government agencies, and businesses from Humboldt, Mendocino, and Del Norte Counties, was formed in 1996 to assist local jurisdictions in understanding the implications of the scenario and to promote a coordinated, consistent mitigation program. The group has produced print and video materials and promoted response and evacuation planning. Since 1997 the RCTWG has sponsored an Earthquake Tsunami Education Room at county fairs featuring preparedness information, hands-on exhibits and regional tsunami hazard maps. Since the development of the TsunamiReady Program in 2001, the RCTWG facilitates community TsunamiReady certification. To assess the effectiveness of mitigation efforts, five telephone surveys between 1993 and 2001 were conducted by the Humboldt Earthquake Education Center. A sixth survey is planned for this fall. Each survey includes between 400 and 600 respondents. Over the nine year period covered by the surveys, the percent with houses secured to foundations has increased from 58 to 80 percent, respondents aware of a local tsunami hazard increased

  7. Dependency of precipitation scaling pattern on emission scenarios in RCPs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishizaki, Yasuhiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Nozawa, Toru; Ogura, Tomoo; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Nagashima, Tatsuya

    2013-04-01

    Pattern scaling is an efficient way to generate projections of regional climate change for a wide range of emission scenarios. This approach assumes that the spatial changes per 1 K increase in global mean surface air temperature (SAT) (scaling pattern) are common between emission scenarios. We validated the assumption of precipitation scaling pattern (SP) focusing on the scenario dependency (SD) of aerosols SP among representative concentration pathways. Overall, the SD of aerosols SPs induced an SD of surface shortwave radiation (SSR) SP. The SD of SSR SP over ocean tends to induce an SD of evaporation SP. The SD of evaporation SP led to an SD of precipitation SP over the site and the downstream regions. Contrariwise, when an SD of aerosols SPs occurred over land, the SD of SSR SP induced not only an SD of evaporation SP but also an SD of surface longwave radiation and sensible heat SPs. Consequently, the SD of evaporation SP was smaller over land than over ocean, and the SD of precipitation SP does not tend to be significant. In addition to the SD of aerosols scaling patterns, the SD of the southern annular mode and polar amplification caused some of the SD of precipitation SP. Projections of precipitation are important inputs to assessments of the impacts of climate change and related adaptation research. Scientists who study these topics need to pay attention to the scenario dependence of the scaling pattern of precipitation if the scenario dependences are important for their research. Because the differences of the global mean SAT changes between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 are smaller than those between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, the scenario dependences of the scaling patterns of anthropogenic aerosols and of Hadley circulation and SAM between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 were less than those between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. As a result, the scenario dependence of precipitation tended to be less between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 than between RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 overall. Thus, when pattern scaling is

  8. Evaluating Global Land-use Change Scenario: Carbon Emission in RCP Scenarios and its Effects on Climate Response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, E.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    In CMIP5 experiments, new emissions scenarios for GCMs and Earth System Models (ESMs) have been constructed as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) by a community effort of Integrated Assessment Modeling (IAM) groups. In RCP scenarios, regional land-use scenarios have been depicted based on the socio-economic assumption of IAMs, and also downscaled spatially explicit land-use maps from the regional scenarios are prepared. In the land-use harmonization project, integrated gridded land-use transition data for the past and future time period has been developed from the reconstruction based on HYDE 3 agricultural data and FAO wood harvest data, and the future land-use scenarios from IAMs. These gridded land-use dataset are used as a forcing of some ESMs participating to the CMIP5 experiments, to assess the biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects of land-use and land cover change in the climate change simulation. In this study, global net CO2 emissions from land-use change for RCP scenarios are evaluated with an offline terrestrial biogeochemical model, VISIT (Vegetation Integrative SImulation Tool). Also the emissions are evaluated with coupled ESM, MIROC-ESM following the LUCID-CMIP5 protocol to see the effect of land-use and land cover change on climate response. Using the model output, consistency of the land-use change CO2 emission scenarios provided by RCPs are evaluated in terms of effect of CO2 fertilization, climate change, and land-use transition itself including the effect of biomass crops production with CCS. We find that a land-use scenario with decreased agricultural land-use intensity such as RCP 6.0 shows possibility of further absorption of CO2 through the climate-carbon feedback, and cooling effect through both biogeochemical and biogeophysical effects.

  9. Safety evaluation of MHTGR licensing basis accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1989-04-01

    The safety potential of the Modular High-Temperature Gas Reactor (MHTGR) was evaluated, based on the Preliminary Safety Information Document (PSID), as submitted by the US Department of Energy to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. The relevant reactor safety codes were extended for this purpose and applied to this new reactor concept, searching primarily for potential accident scenarios that might lead to fuel failures due to excessive core temperatures and/or to vessel damage, due to excessive vessel temperatures. The design basis accident scenario leading to the highest vessel temperatures is the depressurized core heatup scenario without any forced cooling and with decay heat rejection to the passive Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). This scenario was evaluated, including numerous parametric variations of input parameters, like material properties and decay heat. It was found that significant safety margins exist, but that high confidence levels in the core effective thermal conductivity, the reactor vessel and RCCS thermal emissivities and the decay heat function are required to maintain this safety margin. Severe accident extensions of this depressurized core heatup scenario included the cases of complete RCCS failure, cases of massive air ingress, core heatup without scram and cases of degraded RCCS performance due to absorbing gases in the reactor cavity. Except for no-scram scenarios extending beyond 100 hr, the fuel never reached the limiting temperature of 1600/degree/C, below which measurable fuel failures are not expected. In some of the scenarios, excessive vessel and concrete temperatures could lead to investment losses but are not expected to lead to any source term beyond that from the circulating inventory. 19 refs., 56 figs., 11 tabs.

  10. Olive production systems on sloping land: prospects and scenarios.

    PubMed

    de Graaff, Jan; Duran Zuazo, Victor-Hugo; Jones, Nádia; Fleskens, Luuk

    2008-11-01

    The ultimate objective of the EU Olivero project was to improve the quality of life of the rural population and to assure the sustainable use of the natural resources of land and water in the sloping and mountainous olive production systems (SMOPS) areas in Southern Europe. One specific objective was to develop, with end-users, alternative future scenarios for olive orchards in the five Olivero target areas. This paper discusses the development of these scenarios, and their socio-economic and environmental effects. After presenting the different production systems (SMOPS) and their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, a general overview is given of the medium- and long-term prospects. These have been validated by experts from the olive sector and foresee changes towards abandonment, intensification and organic production. On balance, the changes could lead to lower production of some target areas in future. An analysis of major external factors affecting the future development of SMOPS indicates there will be labour shortages and increased wage rates, reduced subsidies and constant or rising olive oil prices. On the basis of these assumptions, four future scenarios are developed for the five target areas, with the help of a Linear Programming simulation model. The results are presented for two target areas. For the Trás-os-Montes target area in Portugal, three of the four tested scenarios point to a high level of abandonment, while in the most positive scenario the areas under semi-intensive low input and organic SMOPS increase. In the Granada and Jaen target area in Spain, all scenarios hint at intensification, and only the orchards on the steepest slopes are likely to be abandoned. The direction and extent of environmental effects (erosion, fire risk, pollution, water use and biodiversity) differ per scenario, as do the extent of cross-compliance and agri-environmental measures.

  11. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  12. Future Scenarios of Livestock and Land Use in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, M. H.; Abrahão, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Brazil currently has about 213 M cattle heads in 151 M ha of pastures. In the last 40 years, both the top 5% and the average stocking rate are increasing exponentially in Brazil, while the relative yield gap has been constant. Using these historical relationships, we estimate future scenarios of livestock and land use in Brazil. We assume a reference scenario for the top 5%, in which pasturelands are adequately fertilized, soil is not compacted and well drained, grasses are never burned, pastures are divided in 8 subdivisions of regular area, are cattle is rotated through the subdivisions. The reference scenario does not consider irrigation or feed supplementation. We calibrate a computer model and run it for the pasturelands throughout the entire country. We conclude that current pastures have about 20% efficiency to raise cattle compared to the reference scenario. Considering the reference scenario, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 100 years, with top 5% with about 9.3 heads per ha and the average 4.3 heads per ha, or 600 M heads of livestock. Considering a more pessimistic scenario, which considers an inflection of the curve in present times, we predict an equilibrium will be reached in about 60 years, with the top 5% stocking rate equal to 4.3 heads per ha and the average equal to 2.2 heads per ha, or 300 M heads of livestock. Both cases represent a considerable expansion of the livestock, maybe even higher than the growth of the global demands for beef. These scenarios indicate that not all existing pasturelands need to be used in the future - a significant part of them may be converted to croplands, which will also contribute to the reduction of deforestation.

  13. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  14. China Land-Use Change Simulation Under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DONG, N.; Lin, H.

    2016-12-01

    Future land-use change responses to human activities and plays a significant role in the whole earth system. Land use data in most climatic models are static which result in a decreased accuracy of evaluation of human activities and also largely lower the efficiency of policy makers. After the RCP scenarios came out, the land use change trends in China for the near future were rarely shown. This paper provides a method to simulate the future land use change in China based on climate mitigation scenarios. The MCD12Q1 product of MODIS and HYDE32 data are combined to make the base land use maps for China of 2005 and 2010. Totally four scenarios are made according to the Chinese national land use overall plan outlines and the statistic data from GCAM. Driving factors from social-economic, ecologic and spatial location aspects are considered including GDP, population density, temperature, precipitation, dominant soil type, elevation, slope, distance to roads, distance to rivers and distance to cities. Simulation is then carried out in 14 agricultural-zones desperately with Dyna-CLUE. Each scenario reflects seperate effects of human activities on land use change. Plan scenario represents the stage of a high speed of urban expansion. Under the condition that urban area would not largely change, the other three GCAM scenarios mainly discuss the situations focused on the change of vegetation cover. We find that: (1)The urban area expands largely in Plan scenario, and G2.6 gets the most forest and crop area which shows environment-friendly human activities to the ecologic balance (Figure 1a,1b). (2) Compare to the 2010 land use map, forest increases mainly happen in the northeast China and central plains region under the G2.6 scenario. However, urban expansion under the Plan scenario occurs not in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta economic region but in the second or third developed level cities such as Wuhan, Jinan, and Nanchang (Figure1c,1d). (3)The kappa value

  15. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and different development paths are still possible. We developed a multi-parameter framework to assess dynamic aspects of a technology -still in development-, by means of scenario drafting to determine the effects, costs and cost-effectiveness of possible future diffusion patterns. Secondly, we explored the value of this method on the case of the clinical implementation of the 70-gene signature for breast cancer, a gene expression profile for selecting patients who will benefit most from chemotherapy. Methods To incorporate process-uncertainty, ten possible scenarios regarding the introduction of the 70-gene signature were drafted with European experts. Out of 5 most likely scenarios, 3 drivers of diffusion (non-compliance, technical failure, and uptake) were quantitatively integrated in a decision-analytical model. For these scenarios, the cost-effectiveness of the 70-gene signature expressed in Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) was compared to clinical guidelines, calculated from the past (2005) until the future (2020). Results In 2005 the ICER was €1,9 million/quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY), meaning that the 70-gene signature was not yet cost-effective compared to the current clinical guideline. The ICER for the 70-gene signature improved over time with a range of €1,9 million to €26,145 in 2010 and €1,9 million to €11,123/QALY in 2020 depending on the separate scenario used. From 2010, the 70-gene signature should be cost-effective, based on the combined scenario. The uptake-scenario had strongest influence on the cost-effectiveness. Conclusions When optimal diffusion of a technology is sought, incorporating process-uncertainty by means of

  16. Adaptive scenarios: a training model for today's public health workforce.

    PubMed

    Uden-Holman, Tanya; Bedet, Jennifer; Walkner, Laurie; Abd-Hamid, Nor Hashidah

    2014-01-01

    With the current economic climate, money for training is scarce. In addition, time is a major barrier to participation in trainings. To meet the public health workforce's rising demand for training, while struggling with less time and fewer resources, the Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center has developed a model of online training that provides the public health workforce with individually customized, needs-based training experiences. Adaptive scenarios are rooted in case-based reasoning, a learning approach that focuses on the specific knowledge needed to solve a problem. Proponents of case-based reasoning argue that learners benefit from being able to remember previous similar situations and reusing information and knowledge from that situation. Adaptive scenarios based on true-to-life job performance provide an opportunity to assess skills by presenting the user with choices to make in a problem-solving context. A team approach was used to develop the adaptive scenarios. Storylines were developed that incorporated situations aligning with the knowledge, skills, and attitudes outlined in the Public Health Preparedness and Response Core Competency Model. This article examines 2 adaptive scenarios: "Ready or Not? A Family Preparedness Scenario" and "Responding to a Crisis: Managing Emotions and Stress Scenario." The scenarios are available on Upper Midwest Preparedness and Emergency Response Learning Center's Learning Management System, the Training Source (http://training-source.org). Evaluation data indicate that users' experiences have been positive. Integrating the assessment and training elements of the scenarios so that the training experience is uniquely adaptive to each user is one of the most efficient ways to provide training. The opportunity to provide individualized, needs-based training without having to administer separate assessments has the potential to save time and resources. These adaptive scenarios continue to be

  17. Creating pedestrian crash scenarios in a driving simulator environment.

    PubMed

    Chrysler, Susan T; Ahmad, Omar; Schwarz, Chris W

    2015-01-01

    In 2012 in the United States, pedestrian injuries accounted for 3.3% of all traffic injuries but, disproportionately, pedestrian fatalities accounted for roughly 14% of traffic-related deaths (NHTSA 2014 ). In many other countries, pedestrians make up more than 50% of those injured and killed in crashes. This research project examined driver response to crash-imminent situations involving pedestrians in a high-fidelity, full-motion driving simulator. This article presents a scenario development method and discusses experimental design and control issues in conducting pedestrian crash research in a simulation environment. Driving simulators offer a safe environment in which to test driver response and offer the advantage of having virtual pedestrian models that move realistically, unlike test track studies, which by nature must use pedestrian dummies on some moving track. An analysis of pedestrian crash trajectories, speeds, roadside features, and pedestrian behavior was used to create 18 unique crash scenarios representative of the most frequent and most costly crash types. For the study reported here, we only considered scenarios where the car is traveling straight because these represent the majority of fatalities. We manipulated driver expectation of a pedestrian both by presenting intersection and mid-block crossing as well as by using features in the scene to direct the driver's visual attention toward or away from the crossing pedestrian. Three visual environments for the scenarios were used to provide a variety of roadside environments and speed: a 20-30 mph residential area, a 55 mph rural undivided highway, and a 40 mph urban area. Many variables of crash situations were considered in selecting and developing the scenarios, including vehicle and pedestrian movements; roadway and roadside features; environmental conditions; and characteristics of the pedestrian, driver, and vehicle. The driving simulator scenarios were subjected to iterative testing to

  18. Integrated Analysis of Market Transformation Scenarios with HyTrans

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, David L; Leiby, Paul Newsome; Bowman, David Charles

    2007-06-01

    This report presents alternative visions of the transition of light-duty vehicle transportation in the United States from petroleum to hydrogen power. It is a supporting document to the U.S. Department of Energy's Summary Report, "Analysis of the Transition to a Hydrogen Economy and the Potential Hydrogen Infrastructure Requirements" (U.S. DOE, 2007). Three alternative early transition scenarios were analyzed using a market simulation model called HyTrans. The HyTrans model simultaneously represents the behavior of fuel suppliers, vehicle manufacturers and consumers, explicitly recognizing the importance of fuel availability and the diversity of vehicle choices to consumers, and dependence of fuel supply on the existence of market demand. Competitive market outcomes are simulated by means of non-linear optimization of social surplus through the year 2050. The three scenarios specify different rates and geographical distributions of market penetration for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles from 2012 through 2025. Scenario 1 leads to 2 million vehicles on U.S. roads by 2025, while Scenarios 2 and 3 result in 5 million and 10 million FCVs in use by 2025, respectively. The HyTrans model "costs out" the transition scenarios and alternative policies for achieving them. It then tests whether the scenarios, together with the achievement of the DOE's technology goals for fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen infrastructure technologies could lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen powered transportation. Given the achievement of DOE's ambitious technology goals, all three scenarios appear to lead to a sustainable transition to hydrogen. In the absence of early transition deployment effort, no transition is likely to begin before 2045. The cumulative costs of the transition scenarios to the government range from $8 billion to $45 billion, depending on the scenario, the policies adopted and the degree of cost-sharing with industry. In the absence of carbon constraining policies, the

  19. Visioning the Future: Scenarios Modeling of the Florida Coastal Everglades.

    PubMed

    Flower, Hilary; Rains, Mark; Fitz, Carl

    2017-08-04

    In this paper, we provide screening-level analysis of plausible Everglades ecosystem response by 2060 to sea level rise (0.50 m) interacting with macroclimate change (1.5 °C warming, 7% increase in evapotranspiration, and rainfall that either increases or decreases by 10%). We used these climate scenarios as input to the Ecological Landscape Model to simulate changes to seven interactive hydro-ecological metrics. Mangrove forest and other marine influences migrated up to 15 km inland in both scenarios, delineated by the saltwater front. Freshwater habitat area decreased by 25-30% under our two climate change scenarios and was largely replaced by mangroves and, in the increased rainfall scenario, open water as well. Significant mangroves drowned along northern Florida Bay in both climate change scenarios due to sea level rise. Increased rainfall of 10% provided significant benefits to the spatial and temporal salinity regime within the marine-influenced zone, providing a more gradual and natural adjustment for at-risk flora and fauna. However, increased rainfall also increased the risk of open water, due to water depths that inhibited mangrove establishment and reduced peat accumulation rates. We infer that ecological effects related to sea level rise may occur in the extreme front-edge of saltwater intrusion, that topography will control the incursion of this zone as sea level rises, and that differences in freshwater availability will have ecologically significant effects on ecosystem resilience through the temporal and spatial pattern of salinity changes.

  20. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and present a good, coherent, and design-oriented story without methodical support. The paper therefore contributes with guidelines that delineate a) what a design-oriented persona-scenario should consist of (product) and b) how to write it (procedure) in order to generate and validate as many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas as possible (purpose). The purpose of the guidelines is to facilitate the construction of persona-scenarios as good, coherent stories, which make sense to the storytellers and to the audience - and which therefore generate many, new, and shared understandings and design ideas.

  1. Bioretention function under climate change scenarios in North Carolina, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hathaway, J. M.; Brown, R. A.; Fu, J. S.; Hunt, W. F.

    2014-11-01

    The effect of climate change on stormwater controls is largely unknown. Evaluating such effects is important for understanding how well resiliency can be built into urban watersheds by implementing these systems. Bioretention areas with varied media depths, in situ soil types, drainage configurations, and surface infiltration capabilities have previously been monitored, modelled, and calibrated using the continuous simulation model, DRAINMOD. In this study, data from downscaled climate projections for 2055 through 2058 were utilized in these models to evaluate changes in system hydrologic function under two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). The results were compared to those generated using a “Base” scenario of observed data from 2001 to 2004. The results showed a modest change in the overall water balance of the system. In particular, the frequency and magnitude of overflow from the systems substantially increased under the climate change scenarios. As this represents an increase in the amount of uncontrolled, untreated runoff from the contributing watersheds, it is of particular concern. Further modelling showed that between 9.0 and 31.0 cm of additional storage would be required under the climate change scenarios to restrict annual overflow to that of the base scenario. Bioretention surface storage volume and infiltration rate appeared important in determining a system's ability to cope with increased yearly rainfall and higher rainfall magnitudes. As climate change effects vary based on location, similar studies should be performed in other locations to determine localized effects on stormwater controls.

  2. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    PubMed Central

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for. PMID:27067389

  3. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  4. Economically consistent long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; West, Jason; Kyle, G. Page

    2011-09-08

    Pollutant emissions such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors substantially influence climate. While future century-scale scenarios for these emissions have become more realistic through the inclusion of emission controls, they still potentially lack consistency between surface pollutant concentrations and regional levels of affluence. We demonstrate a methodology combining use of an integrated assessment model and a three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model, whereby a reference scenario is constructed by requiring consistent surface pollutant levels as a function of regional income over the 21st century. By adjusting air pollutant emission control parameters, we improve agreement between modeled PM2.5 and economic income among world regions through time; agreement for ozone is also improved but is more difficult to achieve because of the strong influence of upwind world regions. The scenario examined here was used as the basis for one of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. This analysis methodology could also be used to examine the consistency of other pollutant emission scenarios.

  5. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    PubMed

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  6. Acadia National Park Climate Change Scenario Planning Workshop summary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Star, Jonathan; Fisichelli, Nicholas; Bryan, Alexander; Babson, Amanda; Cole-Will, Rebecca; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2016-01-01

    This report summarizes outcomes from a two-day scenario planning workshop for Acadia National Park, Maine (ACAD). The primary objective of the workshop was to help ACAD senior leadership make management and planning decisions based on up-to-date climate science and assessments of future uncertainty. The workshop was also designed as a training program, helping build participants' capabilities to develop and use scenarios. The details of the workshop are given in later sections. The climate scenarios presented here are based on published global climate model output. The scenario implications for resources and management decisions are based on expert knowledge distilled through scientist-manager interaction during workgroup break-out sessions at the workshop. Thus, the descriptions below are from these small-group discussions in a workshop setting and should not be taken as vetted research statements of responses to the climate scenarios, but rather as insights and examinations of possible futures (Martin et al. 2011, McBride et al. 2012).

  7. Oil spill response scenarios for remote arctic environments. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Schulze, R.H.; Grosskopf, W.G.; Cox, J.C.; Schultz, L.A.

    1982-03-01

    Special problems occur during oil spill cleanup in remote inland areas in cold climates. In Alaska these problems result from the harsh climate, the unusual terrain features, and the special problems of spills along swift rivers. The analysis begins with a description of the environmental conditions that occur in Alaska that affect oil spill behavior and oil spill cleanup. The study then describes four spill scenarios in remote areas giving engineering details of the mechanics of the spill movement and the cleanup effort. One scenario covers a winter blowout of a well on the north slope tundra. The next involves a Trans-Alaska Pipeline spill. The fourth scenario involves a fuel tank truck spill into a sensitive sport fishing stream. The study describes the impact of these spills on the environment. Further, it provides a numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of the spill response effort and the cost effectiveness of three incremental levels of spill response for the cleanup effort.

  8. A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

    2017-02-16

    A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

  9. Security Implications of Typical Grid Computing Usage Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Humphrey, Marty; Thompson, Mary R.

    2001-06-05

    A Computational Grid is a collection of heterogeneous computers and resources spread across multiple administrative domains with the intent of providing users uniform access to these resources. There are many ways to access the resources of a Computational Grid, each with unique security requirements and implications for both the resource user and the resource provider. A comprehensive set of Grid usage scenarios are presented and analyzed with regard to security requirements such as authentication, authorization, integrity, and confidentiality. The main value of these scenarios and the associated security discussions are to provide a library of situations against which an application designer can match, thereby facilitating security-aware application use and development from the initial stages of the application design and invocation. A broader goal of these scenarios are to increase the awareness of security issues in Grid Computing.

  10. A Methodology For Flood Vulnerability Analysis In Complex Flood Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Figueiredo, R.; Martina, M. L. V.; Dottori, F.

    2015-12-01

    Nowadays, flood risk management is gaining importance in order to mitigate and prevent flood disasters, and consequently the analysis of flood vulnerability is becoming a key research topic. In this paper, we propose a methodology for large-scale analysis of flood vulnerability. The methodology is based on a GIS-based index, which considers local topography, terrain roughness and basic information about the flood scenario to reproduce the diffusive behaviour of floodplain flow. The methodology synthetizes the spatial distribution of index values into maps and curves, used to represent the vulnerability in the area of interest. Its application allows for considering different levels of complexity of flood scenarios, from localized flood defence failures to complex hazard scenarios involving river reaches. The components of the methodology are applied and tested in two floodplain areas in Northern Italy recently affected by floods. The results show that the methodology can provide an original and valuable insight of flood vulnerability variables and processes.

  11. Scenarios for optimizing potato productivity in a lunar CELSS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, R. M.; Morrow, R. C.; Tibbitts, T. W.; Bula, R. J.

    1992-01-01

    The use of controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) in the development and growth of large-scale bases on the Moon will reduce the expense of supplying life support materials from Earth. Such systems would use plants to produce food and oxygen, remove carbon dioxide, and recycle water and minerals. In a lunar CELSS, several factors are likely to be limiting to plant productivity, including the availability of growing area, electrical power, and lamp/ballast weight for lighting systems. Several management scenarios are outlined in this discussion for the production of potatoes based on their response to irradiance, photoperiod, and carbon dioxide concentration. Management scenarios that use 12-hr photoperiods, high carbon dioxide concentrations, and movable lamp banks to alternately irradiate halves of the growing area appear to be the most efficient in terms of growing area, electrical power, and lamp weights. However, the optimal scenario will be dependent upon the relative 'costs' of each factor.

  12. A temporary, moderate and responsive scenario for solar geoengineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keith, David W.; MacMartin, Douglas G.

    2015-03-01

    The risks and benefits of solar geoengineering, or solar radiation management (SRM), depend on assumptions about its implementation. Claims that SRM will reduce precipitation, increase ocean acidification or deplete stratospheric ozone, or that it must be continued forever once started, are not inherent features of SRM; rather, they are features of common scenarios for its implementation. Most analyses assume, for example, that SRM would be used to stop the increase in global temperature or restore temperature to pre-industrial values. We argue that these are poor scenario choices on which to base policy-relevant judgements about SRM. As a basis for further analysis, we provide a scenario that is temporary in that its end point is zero SRM, is moderate in that it offsets only half of the growth in anthropogenic climate forcing and is responsive in that it recognizes that the amount of SRM will be adjusted in light of new information.

  13. Simulation of Lunar Surface Communications Network Exploration Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Linsky, Thomas W.; Bhasin, Kul B.; White, Alex; Palangala, Srihari

    2006-01-01

    Simulations and modeling of surface-based communications networks provides a rapid and cost effective means of requirement analysis, protocol assessments, and tradeoff studies. Robust testing in especially important for exploration systems, where the cost of deployment is high and systems cannot be easily replaced or repaired. However, simulation of the envisioned exploration networks cannot be achieved using commercial off the shelf network simulation software. Models for the nonstandard, non-COTS protocols used aboard space systems are not readily available. This paper will address the simulation of realistic scenarios representative of the activities which will take place on the surface of the Moon, including selection of candidate network architectures, and the development of an integrated simulation tool using OPNET modeler capable of faithfully modeling those communications scenarios in the variable delay, dynamic surface environments. Scenarios for exploration missions, OPNET development, limitations, and simulations results will be provided and discussed.

  14. A Scenario Generation Method for Wind Power Ramp Events Forecasting

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Ming-Jian; Ke, De-Ping; Sun, Yuan-Zhang; Gan, Di; Zhang, Jie; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2015-07-03

    Wind power ramp events (WPREs) have received increasing attention in recent years due to their significant impact on the reliability of power grid operations. In this paper, a novel WPRE forecasting method is proposed which is able to estimate the probability distributions of three important properties of the WPREs. To do so, a neural network (NN) is first proposed to model the wind power generation (WPG) as a stochastic process so that a number of scenarios of the future WPG can be generated (or predicted). Each possible scenario of the future WPG generated in this manner contains the ramping information, and the distributions of the designated WPRE properties can be stochastically derived based on the possible scenarios. Actual data from a wind power plant in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) was selected for testing the proposed ramp forecasting method. Results showed that the proposed method effectively forecasted the probability of ramp events.

  15. Risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios using Bayesian networks.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Zhi; Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

    2015-02-01

    In this study, a methodology has been proposed for risk analysis of dust explosion scenarios based on Bayesian network. Our methodology also benefits from a bow-tie diagram to better represent the logical relationships existing among contributing factors and consequences of dust explosions. In this study, the risks of dust explosion scenarios are evaluated, taking into account common cause failures and dependencies among root events and possible consequences. Using a diagnostic analysis, dust particle properties, oxygen concentration, and safety training of staff are identified as the most critical root events leading to dust explosions. The probability adaptation concept is also used for sequential updating and thus learning from past dust explosion accidents, which is of great importance in dynamic risk assessment and management. We also apply the proposed methodology to a case study to model dust explosion scenarios, to estimate the envisaged risks, and to identify the vulnerable parts of the system that need additional safety measures.

  16. Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-Tolerant Diagnosis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    James, Mark

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator for Fault-tolerant Diagnostics (HSG) is an algorithm being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial- intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. By incorporating prognostic capabilities along with advanced diagnostic capabilities, these developments hold promise to increase the safety and affordability of the affected engineering systems by making it possible to obtain timely and accurate information on the statuses of the systems and predicting impending failures well in advance. The HSG is a specific instance of a hypothetical- scenario generator that implements an innovative approach for performing diagnostic reasoning when data are missing. The special purpose served by the HSG is to (1) look for all possible ways in which the present state of the engineering system can be mapped with respect to a given model and (2) generate a prioritized set of future possible states and the scenarios of which they are parts.

  17. Scenario analysis and strategic planning: practical applications for radiology practices.

    PubMed

    Lexa, Frank James; Chan, Stephen

    2010-05-01

    Modern business science has many tools that can be of great value to radiologists and their practices. One of the most important and underused is long-term planning. Part of the problem has been the pace of change. Making a 5-year plan makes sense only if your develop robust scenarios of possible future conditions you will face. Scenario analysis is one of many highly regarded tools that can improve your predictive capability. However, as with many tools, it pays to have some training and to get practical tips on how to improve their value. It also helps to learn from other people's mistakes rather than your own. The authors discuss both theoretical and practical issues in using scenario analysis to improve your planning process. They discuss actionable ways this set of tools can be applied in a group meeting or retreat. Copyright (c) 2010 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Patient management scenario: a framework for clinical decision and prognosis.

    PubMed

    Gospodarowicz, Mary; O'Sullivan, Brian

    2003-01-01

    The depiction of prognosis is one of the main activities and a mainstay in medical practice. In cancer, as in other diseases, the prognosis differs for a variety of situations and evolves with time and with medical interventions. Although most commonly described at diagnosis, prognosis may be defined at any time during the course of the disease and for any endpoint including response to therapy, failure of treatment, survival, or preservation of function, and so forth. To facilitate the accurate portrayal of the future, the prognosis should be defined within a specific setting, referred to as a 'management scenario'. In the concept of a management scenario, the prognosis is defined using systematically considered prognostic factors, interventions and the outcome of interest. A deliberate and careful determination of prognosis is essential to clinical decision making and patient care. We illustrate the use of the concept of management scenario in several clinical examples.

  19. Scenarios for sLHC and vLHC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scandale, W.; Zimmermann, F.

    2008-03-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles and evolution of the statistical error halving time call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the EU CARE-HHH network, two scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by a factor 10, to 10 cms ("sLHC"). Both scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges differ substantially. In either scenario luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. Longer-term R&D efforts are devoted to a higher-energy hadron collider ("vLHC"), which could be realized on a green field or as a later and more radical LHC upgrade.

  20. Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

    1978-01-01

    A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

  1. Health in the New Scenarios for Climate Change Research

    PubMed Central

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2013-01-01

    The climate change research community is developing a toolkit for creating new scenarios to explore and evaluate the extensive uncertainties associated with future climate change and development pathways. Components of the toolkit include pathways for greenhouse gas emissions over this century and their associated magnitude and pattern of climate change; descriptions of a range of possible socioeconomic development pathways, including qualitative narratives and quantitative elements; and climate change policies to achieve specific levels of radiative forcing and levels of adaptive capacity. These components are combined within a matrix architecture to create a scenario. Five reference socioeconomic development pathways have been described along axes describing increasing socioeconomic and environmental challenges to adaptation and to mitigation. This paper extends these global pathways to describe their possible consequences for public health and health care, and considers the additional elements that could be added to increase the relevance of the new scenarios to address a wider range of policy relevant questions than previously possible. PMID:24452253

  2. Surface Buildup Scenarios and Outpost Architectures for Lunar Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mazanek, Daniel D.; Troutman, Patrick A.; Culbert, Christopher J.; Leonard, Matthew J.; Spexarth, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    The Constellation Program Architecture Team and the Lunar Surface Systems Project Office have developed an initial set of lunar surface buildup scenarios and associated polar outpost architectures, along with preliminary supporting element and system designs in support of NASA's Exploration Strategy. The surface scenarios are structured in such a way that outpost assembly can be suspended at any time to accommodate delivery contingencies or changes in mission emphasis. The modular nature of the architectures mitigates the impact of the loss of any one element and enhances the ability of international and commercial partners to contribute elements and systems. Additionally, the core lunar surface system technologies and outpost operations concepts are applicable to future Mars exploration. These buildup scenarios provide a point of departure for future trades and assessments of alternative architectures and surface elements.

  3. Natural gas network resiliency to a "shakeout scenario" earthquake.

    SciTech Connect

    Ellison, James F.; Corbet, Thomas Frank,; Brooks, Robert E.

    2013-06-01

    A natural gas network model was used to assess the likely impact of a scenario San Andreas Fault earthquake on the natural gas network. Two disruption scenarios were examined. The more extensive damage scenario assumes the disruption of all three major corridors bringing gas into southern California. If withdrawals from the Aliso Canyon storage facility are limited to keep the amount of stored gas within historical levels, the disruption reduces Los Angeles Basin gas supplies by 50%. If Aliso Canyon withdrawals are only constrained by the physical capacity of the storage system to withdraw gas, the shortfall is reduced to 25%. This result suggests that it is important for stakeholders to put agreements in place facilitating the withdrawal of Aliso Canyon gas in the event of an emergency.

  4. Beyond Bell's Theorem II: Scenarios with Arbitrary Causal Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fritz, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    It has recently been found that Bell scenarios are only a small subclass of interesting setups for studying the non-classical features of quantum theory within spacetime. We find that it is possible to talk about classical correlations, quantum correlations and other kinds of correlations on any directed acyclic graph, and this captures various extensions of Bell scenarios that have been considered in the literature. From a conceptual point of view, the main feature of our approach is its high level of unification: while the notions of source, choice of setting and measurement all play seemingly different roles in a Bell scenario, our formalism shows that they are all instances of the same concept of "event". Our work can also be understood as a contribution to the subject of causal inference with latent variables. Among other things, we introduce hidden Bayesian networks as a generalization of hidden Markov models.

  5. [Scenarios of typical occupational injuries in lumber industry].

    PubMed

    de Souza, Vidal; Blank, Vera L G; Calvo, Maria Cristina Marino

    2002-12-01

    To describe the scenarios of typical occupational injuries in lumber industry. All occupational injuries reported to a INSS (National Institute of Social Security) center in Lages, SC, Brazil from January 1997 to January 1999 were identified. A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out and 254 injury report forms were analyzed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using Factorial Analysis of Correspondence (FAC), Hierarchical Ascendant Classification (HAC) and Partition to identify the scenarios of typical occupational injuries. There were identified five scenarios of occupational injuries: 1) workers' falls (40 reports); 2) overexertion in lifting or pushing objects (5 reports); 3) objects or machine parts falling or being ejected from running machines (76 reports); 4) crushing of soft tissue body parts (56 reports); and 5) body contact with running saw machines (77 reports). Multivariate analysis allowed describing the most typical injuries related to specific types of accidents, and provided a better understanding of the circumstances for their occurrence.

  6. Environmental assessment of spatial plan policies through land use scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Geneletti, Davide

    2012-01-15

    This paper presents a method based on scenario analysis to compare the environmental effects of different spatial plan policies in a range of possible futures. The study aimed at contributing to overcome two limitations encountered in Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) for spatial planning: poor exploration of how the future might unfold, and poor consideration of alternative plan policies. Scenarios were developed through what-if functions and spatial modeling in a Geographical Information System (GIS), and consisted in maps that represent future land uses under different assumptions on key driving forces. The use of land use scenarios provided a representation of how the different policies will look like on the ground. This allowed gaining a better understanding of the policies' implications on the environment, which could be measured through a set of indicators. The research undertook a case-study approach by developing and assessing land use scenarios for the future growth of Caia, a strategically-located and fast-developing town in rural Mozambique. The effects of alternative spatial plan policies were assessed against a set of environmental performance indicators, including deforestation, loss of agricultural land, encroachment of flood-prone areas and wetlands and access to water sources. In this way, critical environmental effects related to the implementation of each policy were identified and discussed, suggesting possible strategies to address them. - Graphical abstract: Display Omitted Research Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method contributes to two critical issues in SEA: exploration of the future and consideration of alternatives. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Future scenarios are used to test the environmental performance of different spatial plan policies in uncertainty conditions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Spatially-explicit land use scenarios provide a representation of how different policies will look like on the ground.

  7. Generic tsunami scenarios for disasters and early warning preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; Salaün, Tugdual

    2010-05-01

    The implementation of the tsunami early warning systems in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean regions will occur in countries with no preparedness and very little knowledge of potentially affected coastal zones by the various tsunami sources. The final link to coastal communities will be sirens to distribute in the concerned areas. The SCHEMA project aims at elaboration of a generic method to consider various parameters of a particular tsunami scenario. A scenario corresponds to a specific source with a given magnitude or intensity. Since we do not consider only the remote sources with possibilities of warning, local earthquake and submarine landslides are also translated in scenarios to allow the civil protections, municipalities and local stakeholders to assess cases with no real warning possibility, where life will be saved by self evacuation in nearby shelter areas or buildings. The specific temporal dimension of tsunami phenomenon is considered. Oceanic propagation time, expected duration of dangerous waves and wavelength are taken into account with their level of uncertainties. Scenarios are presented by maps and layouts with various information: inundation extension, submersion depth, receding sea limit, currents velocity or modulus of flow, modeled damage level to buildings, affected networks and lifelines. Variable dimensions such as residing or working population, by hour of the day and by season are also considered. Secondary vulnerability factors which may increase damage level to buildings are added (potentially floating objects which may turn into projectiles). The potential evacuation routes and obstacles are represented to support installation of warning networks and definition of shelters as well as evacuation routes. The scenarios are calculated using accurate digital bathymetric and topographic model with less than 10 m ground resolution allowing a very detailed mapping. This accuracy is especially important for scenarios with moderate waves for

  8. Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

    PubMed

    Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

    2015-08-01

    This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. On-orbit operational scenarios, tools and techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jennings, Jerry L.; Walker, James

    1991-01-01

    This paper concentrates on methods and techniques used to develop operational scenarios for orbital missions, including development of models to analyze alternatives, modification of tools and refinement of techniques for future missions. Many of these tools and techniques have been derived from previous tools, techniques and experience from the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) program. Results from use of these tools show the current Cargo Transfer Vehicle nominal mission scenario, with 95 discrete events defined for the CTV mission from the NLS Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) to Space Station Freedom (SSF).

  10. Time parallelization of advanced operation scenario simulations of ITER plasma

    SciTech Connect

    Samaddar, D.; Casper, T. A.; Kim, S. H.; Berry, Lee A; Elwasif, Wael R; Batchelor, Donald B; Houlberg, Wayne A

    2013-01-01

    This work demonstrates that simulations of advanced burning plasma operation scenarios can be successfully parallelized in time using the parareal algorithm. CORSICA - an advanced operation scenario code for tokamak plasmas is used as a test case. This is a unique application since the parareal algorithm has so far been applied to relatively much simpler systems except for the case of turbulence. In the present application, a computational gain of an order of magnitude has been achieved which is extremely promising. A successful implementation of the Parareal algorithm to codes like CORSICA ushers in the possibility of time efficient simulations of ITER plasmas.

  11. Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

    PubMed

    Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

    2000-09-01

    In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces.

  12. On-orbit operational scenarios, tools and techniques

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jennings, Jerry L.; Walker, James

    This paper concentrates on methods and techniques used to develop operational scenarios for orbital missions, including development of models to analyze alternatives, modification of tools and refinement of techniques for future missions. Many of these tools and techniques have been derived from previous tools, techniques and experience from the Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) program. Results from use of these tools show the current Cargo Transfer Vehicle nominal mission scenario, with 95 discrete events defined for the CTV mission from the NLS Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV) to Space Station Freedom (SSF).

  13. Logistics of a Lunar Based Solar Power Satellite Scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melissopoulos, Stefanos

    1995-01-01

    A logistics system comprised of two orbital stations for the support of a 500 GW space power satellite scenario in a geostationary orbit was investigated in this study. A subsystem mass model, a mass flow model and a life cycle cost model were developed. The results regarding logistics cost and burden rates show that the transportation cost contributed the most (96%) to the overall cost of the scenario. The orbital stations at a geostationary and at a lunar orbit contributed 4 % to that cost.

  14. Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

    2016-12-01

    This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

  15. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  16. Predicting, deciding, learning: can one evaluate the 'success' of national climate scenarios?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hulme, Mike; Dessai, Suraje

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios may be understood as products and/or processes. Viewing scenario exercises as productive tends to emphasize their tangibility: scenario products may acquire value unrelated to the processes of their creation. Viewing scenario exercises as procedural tends to emphasize their modes of formation: the process of constructing scenarios may have benefits irrespective of the value of ensuing products. These two framings yield different expectations about how one might evaluate the 'success' or otherwise of scenario exercises. We illustrate three approaches to evaluating the success or otherwise of scenarios using the example of the series of national UK climate scenarios published between 1991 and 2002. These are: predictive success (has the future turned out as envisaged?), decision success (have 'good' decisions subsequently been made?) and learning success (have scenarios proved engaging and enabled learning?). We reflect on the different ways the 'success' of national climate scenarios might be evaluated and on the relationship between the productive and procedural dimensions of scenario exercises.

  17. New Scenarios for Audience Response Systems in University Lectures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schön, Daniel; Kopf, Stephan; Klinger, Melanie; Guthier, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Mobile devices like smartphones and tablet PCs are widely used among university students and can be used for audience response systems (clicker systems) to improve teaching. Modern implementations of these systems are no longer limited to plain multiple-choice questions, but enable the lecturers to perform a variety of teaching scenarios. We…

  18. Fall scenarios In causing older women's hip fractures.

    PubMed

    Hägvide, Mona-Lisa; Larsson, Tore J; Borell, Lena

    2013-01-01

    Falls and fall-related injuries among older women constitute a major public health problem with huge costs for the society and personal suffering. The aim of this study was to describe and illustrate how a number of circumstances, conceptualized as a scenario, that were related to the individual, the environment, and the ongoing occupation contributed to a fall that led to a hip fracture among women. The sample included 48 women over 55 years old. Interviews were conducted during home visits and the analysis provided a descriptive picture of circumstances in the shape of a scenario related to the risk of falling. A number of scenarios were developed based on the data and named to provide an understanding of the interplay between the individual, the environment, and the ongoing occupation at the time of the fall. By applying the concept of a scenario, occupational therapists can increase the awareness of fall risks among older people, and are relevant also for interior designers, architects, and town planners to consider when designing the local environment as well as furniture and other objects.

  19. Improvisation of Real-Life Scenarios through Intercultural Competence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okten, Celile Eren; Griffin, Banu Ozer

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes tasks based on real-life scenarios, which triggered reflective thinking, verbalization, and writing, leading to the creation of natural dialogues rather than artificial, dull monologues. One of the main aims of this approach is to engage students in a dynamic process of both learning about multicultural participants and…

  20. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  1. Scenario dependency of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, Katherine; Williams, Ric; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), in relating surface temperature changes to cumulative carbon emissions, provides a means of estimating carbon budgets from global warming benchmarks. Current Earth System Model results indicate that the TCRE is linear and scenario-independent. We explore the sensitivity of the TCRE to scenario and model parameter uncertainties using 8 configurations of the UVic Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, forced by 2 twenty-first-century emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We find that the TCRE is higher under RCP 4.5 than 8.5 by 0.3-0.8 K/1000 Pg C and shows opposing nonlinear tendencies in these scenarios: an increase of 0.15-0.5 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 4.5 and a decrease of 0-0.7 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 8.5. These differences are robust across model configurations with perturbed land and ocean parametrizations and are the result of the decreased efficiency of heat transport into the deep ocean under decelerating emissions.

  2. Excision technique in constrained formulations of Einstein equations: collapse scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero-Carrión, I.; Vasset, N.; Novak, J.; Jaramillo, J. L.

    2015-04-01

    We present a new excision technique used in constrained formulations of Einstein equations to deal with black hole in numerical simulations. We show the applicability of this scheme in several scenarios. In particular, we present the dynamical evolution of the collapse of a neutron star to a black hole, using the CoCoNuT code and this excision technique.

  3. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  4. Didactic Scenarios and ICT: A Good Practice Guide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dagdilelis, Vassilios; Papadopoulos, Ioannis

    In this paper a 'good practice guide' is presented for creating Didactic Scenarios (D.S.) with the support of ICT. This guide is based on: a) empirical data collected during longitudinal training programs addressed to secondary education teachers, b) observation of the way ICT is used in both levels of education and c) modern didactical theories.

  5. Using Real-World Scenarios in Accounting Classes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bittner, Joseph

    2000-01-01

    High school accounting courses focus on terms and procedures without providing scenarios or examples where accounting skills are applied in business. Business educators should integrate real-world situations into classroom activities so students can better realize how accounting procedures are used and their importance. (JOW)

  6. Subsurface Scenarios: What are We Trying to Model?

    EPA Science Inventory

    In collaboration with the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (George Moridis and team),and after a thorough review of the scientific literature and data and interviews with a selection of experts on the topic, a finite number of plausible scenarios were selected for more quantitative...

  7. Collaborative Concept Mapping Activities in a Classroom Scenario

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elorriaga, J. A.; Arruarte, A.; Calvo, I.; Larrañaga, M.; Rueda, U.; Herrán, E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to test collaborative concept mapping activities using computers in a classroom scenario and to evaluate the possibilities that Elkar-CM offers for collaboratively learning non-technical topics. Elkar-CM is a multi-lingual and multi-media software program designed for drawing concept maps (CMs) collaboratively. Concept…

  8. Allowable Carbon Emission for RCP4.5 Concentration Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Kawamiya, M.

    2011-12-01

    Following the recommendation by CMIP5, some world climate centers are running experiments with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) concentration scenario, and will present allowable carbon emission in the future. As allowable carbon emission is determined by combination of climate response and feedback of ecosystem, there should be significant inter-model uncertainty, and the result is not necessarily perfectly agreed with RCP emission scenario. In this study, parametric uncertainty in allowable carbon emission for RCP4.5 concentration scenario was investigated by perturbing important physical and biogeochemical parameters and aerosol forcing in a loosely coupled earth system model after confirming that the parameter perturbation results in comparable dispersion in climate response and ecosystem's feedback properties to those of C4MIP models. The result showed that allowable carbon emission for our ensemble mean is smaller than the RCP4.5 emission scenario, but the magnitude of the difference is dependent on the data for constraint. The most influential parameter to the allowable emission was climate sensitivity, followed by the Gent-McWilliams thickness parameter. The physical parameters have more contribution than biogeochemical ones, although some of the latter also have statistically significant contribution.

  9. The Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Reports of Resilience

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Coons, Laura M.; O'barr, Gregory; Khatami, Shiva

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience. Design/methodology/approach: The research design is a quasi experimental pretest/posttest with treatment and control groups. Random selection or assignment was not achieved. Findings: Results show a significant difference in…

  10. Drivers and Outcomes of Scenario Planning: A Canonical Correlation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper's aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning. Design/methodology/approach: This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA) Findings Two sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were…

  11. Chlorofluorocarbon production scenarios: possible changes to stratospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Wuebbles, D.J.; Tarp, R.L.; Nold, A.; Wood, W.P.

    1981-01-01

    As one aspect of the regulatory process, the Environmental Protection Agency has derived a series of scenarios for future atmospheric emission rates of the chlorofluorocarbons CFCl/sub 3/ (also referred to as F-11), CF/sub 2/Cl/sub 2/ (F-12), CCl/sub 2/FCClF/sub 2/(F-113), CClF/sub 2/CClF/sub 2/(F-114), and CClF/sub 2/CF/sub 3/ (F-115). These scenarios are based on potential industrial production and commercial applications, and the eventual release of these chemicals into the atmosphere. In this study, the potential effect on stratospheric ozone resulting from future chlorofluorocarbon emissions as suggested by these scenarios is examined. Assessments are based upon model calculations using the one-dimensional coupled transport and chemical kinetics model of the troposphere and stratosphere developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The change in total ozone column calculated for the seven scenarios as a function of time is given. (JGB)

  12. Scenario-Testing: Decision Rules for Evaluating Conflicting Probabilistic Claims.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dudczak, Craig A.; Baker, David

    Evaluators of argument are frequently confronted by conflicting claims. While these claims are usually based on probabilities, they are often resolved with the accepted claim treated as though it were "true," while the rejected claim is treated as though it were "false." Scenario testing is the label applied to a set of…

  13. Significance and scenarios of lunar and planetary exploration missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iwata, Tsutomu; Oota, Kazuo

    1992-08-01

    Significance of moon and planet exploitation and their utilization are described. Topics discussed include: search for the truth concerning the universe; broadening the sphere of human activity; solving energy; resource; environmental problems; scenarios for lunar and Mars missions; and interrelationship between moon and planet exploitation technologies. This report is represented in viewgraphs only.

  14. Drivers and Outcomes of Scenario Planning: A Canonical Correlation Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Nimon, Kim

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The paper's aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning. Design/methodology/approach: This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA) Findings Two sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were…

  15. Expedition 41 six person crew emergency training scenarios

    NASA Image and Video Library

    2014-01-21

    PHOTO DATE: 21 January 2014 LOCATION: Bldg. 9NW, Space Vehicle Mockup Training Facility - ISS Mockups SUBJECT: Expedition 41 six person crew emergency training scenarios. Crewmembers: 39S/Suraev, Wiseman and Gerst along with 40S/Wilmore, Samokutyaev, and Serova. PHOTOGRAPHER: Mark Sowa

  16. Identifying regions vulnerable to habitat degradation under future irrigation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terrado, Marta; Sabater, Sergi; Acuña, Vicenç

    2016-11-01

    The loss and degradation of natural habitats is a primary cause of biodiversity decline. The increasing impacts of climate and land use change affect water availability, ultimately decreasing agricultural production. Areas devoted to irrigation have been increased to compensate this reduction, causing habitat and biodiversity losses, especially in regions undergoing severe water stress. These effects might intensify under global change, probably contributing to a decrease in habitat quality. We selected four European river basins across a gradient of water scarcity and irrigation agriculture. The habitat quality in the basins was assessed as a function of habitat suitability and threats under current and future global change scenarios of irrigation. Results revealed that the most threatened regions under future scenarios of global change were among those suffering of water scarcity and with bigger areas devoted to irrigation. Loss of habitat quality reached 10% in terrestrial and 25% in aquatic ecosystems under climate change scenarios involving drier conditions. The aquatic habitats were the most degraded in all scenarios, since they were affected by threats from both the terrestrial and the aquatic parts of the basin. By identifying in advance the regions most vulnerable to habitat and biodiversity loss, our approach can assist decision makers in deciding the conservation actions to be prioritized for mitigation and adaptation to the effects of climate change, particularly front the development of irrigation plans.

  17. Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

    2016-09-01

    Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

  18. Identification of objective representative scenarios for hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is typically based on one or a few representative eruptive scenarios, meant as specific combinations of a representative eruptive size, intensity, and vent position, selected with subjective criteria neglecting the full intrinsic natural variability characterizing volcanic processes. In common practice, the size and intensity of such scenarios are taken as representative of wider ranges, here termed "size classes". The approach implicitly or explicitly assumes that the inter-size class variability (among different eruptive size classes) is predominant with respect to the intra-size class variability (i.e., the variability inside each range represented by an eruptive size and intensity), the latter assumed as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been carried out to verify such an assumption. Here, we first adopt a novel statistical strategy, that accounts for the full natural variability, to quantify the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment for tephra fallout in the Campania area. Secondly, we compare the results of the new method with those based on few representative scenarios only. On one hand, such comparison allows for determining when the simplified approach is valid, and quantifying the bias introduced in hazard assessment when the full variability is not accounted for. On the other hand, this novel approach opens the way to an objective a posteriori identification of a limited number of representative scenarios, which are necessary when there is no possibility to explore the full variability, as for example for rapid hazard assessment during emergencies, or for short-term hazard assessment.

  19. Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

  20. Reliable freestanding position-based routing in highway scenarios.

    PubMed

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-10-24

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model.

  1. Phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy

    SciTech Connect

    Antusch, Stefan; Dutta, Koushik; Das, Subinoy E-mail: subinoy@nyu.edu

    2008-10-15

    We study the phenomenology of hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy, where in addition to a so-called mass-varying neutrino (MaVaN) sector a cosmological constant (from a false vacuum) is driving the accelerated expansion of the universe today. For general power law potentials we calculate the effective equation of state parameter w{sub eff}(z) in terms of the neutrino mass scale. Due to the interaction of the dark energy field ('acceleron') with the neutrino sector, w{sub eff}(z) is predicted to become smaller than -1 for z>0, which could be tested in future cosmological observations. For the scenarios considered, the neutrino mass scale additionally determines which fraction of the dark energy is dynamical, and which originates from the 'cosmological-constant-like' vacuum energy of the false vacuum. On the other hand, the field value of the 'acceleron' field today as well as the masses of the right-handed neutrinos, which appear in the seesaw-type mechanism for small neutrino masses, are not fixed. This, in principle, allows us to realize hybrid scenarios of neutrino dark energy with a 'high-scale' seesaw where the right-handed neutrino masses are close to the GUT scale. We also comment on how MaVaN hybrid scenarios with 'high-scale' seesaw might help to resolve stability problems of dark energy models with non-relativistic neutrinos.

  2. Commercial Aircraft Emission Scenario for 2020: Database Development and Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sutkus, Donald J., Jr.; Baughcum, Steven L.; DuBois, Douglas P.; Wey, Chowen C. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    This report describes the development of a three-dimensional database of aircraft fuel use and emissions (NO(x), CO, and hydrocarbons) for the commercial aircraft fleet projected to 2020. Global totals of emissions and fuel burn for 2020 are compared to global totals from previous aircraft emission scenario calculations.

  3. The Role of Perpetrator Motivation in Two Crime Scenarios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sizemore, O. J.

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate volunteers (n = 134) were randomly assigned in a 2 x 2 design that manipulated type of crime (rape vs. robbery) and perpetrator motivation (anger vs. desire). After reading one of the crime scenarios, participants responded to a series of attitude items regarding responsibility for the crime, assigned blame to agents mentioned in the…

  4. Informing Lake Erie agriculture nutrient management via scenario evaluation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Scavia, Donald; Kalcic, Margaret; Muenich, Rebecca Logsdon; Aloysius, Noel; Arnold, Jeffrey; Boles, Chelsie; Confesor, Remegio; DePinto, Joseph; Gildow, Marie; Martin, Jay; Read, Jennifer; Redder, Todd; Robertson, Dale; Sowa, Scott P.; Wang, Yu-Chen; White, Michael; Yen, Haw

    2016-01-01

    Therefore, the overall goal of this study was to identify potential options for agricultural management to reduce phosphorus loads and lessen future HABs in Lake Erie. We applied multiple watershed models to test the ability of a series of land management scenarios, developed in consultation with agricultural and environmental stakeholders, to reach the proposed targets. 

  5. Scenario-Based Training at the F.B.I.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Whitcomb, Chris

    1999-01-01

    The 16-week training program offered by the FBI Academy for all new agents is a scenario-based curriculum that includes a range of subjects from the rules of evidence to defensive tactics and provides agents with a clear understanding of how to conduct a full investigation from start to finish. (JOW)

  6. Scenario-Based Spoken Interaction with Virtual Agents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morton, Hazel; Jack, Mervyn A.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a CALL approach which integrates software for speaker independent continuous speech recognition with embodied virtual agents and virtual worlds to create an immersive environment in which learners can converse in the target language in contextualised scenarios. The result is a self-access learning package: SPELL (Spoken…

  7. Collaborative Concept Mapping Activities in a Classroom Scenario

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elorriaga, J. A.; Arruarte, A.; Calvo, I.; Larrañaga, M.; Rueda, U.; Herrán, E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to test collaborative concept mapping activities using computers in a classroom scenario and to evaluate the possibilities that Elkar-CM offers for collaboratively learning non-technical topics. Elkar-CM is a multi-lingual and multi-media software program designed for drawing concept maps (CMs) collaboratively. Concept…

  8. Globular cluster abundance anomalies and the massive binary polluter scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szécsi, Dorottya; González-Jímenez, Nicolas; Langer, Norbert

    2014-09-01

    Observations of globular cluster stars indicate that their material has been polluted with the nucleosynthetically processed matter of a previous generation of massive stars, but not with supernova products. The nature of the polluter is still being debated: either hot-bottom-burning AGB stars or rapidly rotating massive stars could be responsible, although both scenarios face major challenges to explain the observed abundance patterns and require fine-tuning of the most relevant parameters. An alternative scenario involves massive binary polluters: nucleosynthetically processed gas is expelled during highly non-conservative mass transfer in interacting massive binary systems. It has been shown that such systems could return enough material to form a chemically enriched second generation. However, for a detailed comparison of the chemical predictions of this scenario, binary models for a range of masses and orbital periods are needed. We have carried out detailed calculations of interacting massive binaries with various mass ratios and orbital periods. The evolution of these systems is presented. Constraints on the initial parameters are analyzed, observed abundances are compared to theoretical yields, and advantages and disadvantages of this scenario are discussed.

  9. Subsurface Scenarios: What are We Trying to Model?

    EPA Science Inventory

    In collaboration with the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (George Moridis and team),and after a thorough review of the scientific literature and data and interviews with a selection of experts on the topic, a finite number of plausible scenarios were selected for more quantitative...

  10. FTM-West Model Results for Selected Fuel Treatment Scenarios

    Treesearch

    Andrew D. Kramp; Peter J. Ince

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluated potential forest product market impacts in the U.S. West of increases in the supply of wood from thinnings to reduce fire hazard. Evaluations are done using the Fuel Treatment Market-West model for a set of hypothetical fuel treatment scenarios, which include stand-density-index (SDI) and thin-from-below (TFB) treatment regimes at alternative...

  11. Optimal Scheduling for Underwater Communications in Multiple-user Scenarios

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    scenarios Beatrice Tomasi and James C. Preisig Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA phone: (508) 289-3231 fax: (508...5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole,MA

  12. Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.

    2000-01-01

    Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

  13. Reliable Freestanding Position-Based Routing in Highway Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Galaviz-Mosqueda, Gabriel A.; Aquino-Santos, Raúl; Villarreal-Reyes, Salvador; Rivera-Rodríguez, Raúl; Villaseñor-González, Luis; Edwards, Arthur

    2012-01-01

    Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) are considered by car manufacturers and the research community as the enabling technology to radically improve the safety, efficiency and comfort of everyday driving. However, before VANET technology can fulfill all its expected potential, several difficulties must be addressed. One key issue arising when working with VANETs is the complexity of the networking protocols compared to those used by traditional infrastructure networks. Therefore, proper design of the routing strategy becomes a main issue for the effective deployment of VANETs. In this paper, a reliable freestanding position-based routing algorithm (FPBR) for highway scenarios is proposed. For this scenario, several important issues such as the high mobility of vehicles and the propagation conditions may affect the performance of the routing strategy. These constraints have only been partially addressed in previous proposals. In contrast, the design approach used for developing FPBR considered the constraints imposed by a highway scenario and implements mechanisms to overcome them. FPBR performance is compared to one of the leading protocols for highway scenarios. Performance metrics show that FPBR yields similar results when considering freespace propagation conditions, and outperforms the leading protocol when considering a realistic highway path loss model. PMID:23202159

  14. Comparative CFD simulations of a hydrogen fire scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobili, M.; Caruso, G.

    2017-01-01

    Hydrogen leakage and fire ignition and propagation are safety concerns in several industrial plants. In a nuclear fusion power plants the separation of hydrogen and tritium takes place in different steps, among which one or more electrolyzers are foreseen. A fire scenario could take place in case of leakage of hydrogen. In such cases, it is important to prevent the spreading of the fire to adjacent rooms and, at the same time, to withstand the pressure load on walls, to avoid radioactivity release in the surrounding environment. A preliminary study has been carried out with the aim of comparing CFD tools for fire scenario simulations involving hydrogen release. Results have been obtained comparing two codes: ANSYS Fluent© and FDS. The two codes have been compared both for hydrogen dispersion and hydrogen fire in a confined environment. The first scenario is aimed to obtaining of volume fraction 3D maps for the evaluation of the different diffusion/transport models. In the second scenario, characterized by a double-ended guillotine break, the fire is supposed to be ignited at the same time of the impact. Simulations have been carried out for the first 60 seconds. Hydrogen concentration, temperature and pressure fields are compared and discussed.

  15. Some Methods for Scenario Analysis in Defence Strategic Planning

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Scenarios are an important tool in the strategic planning process, and are increasingly used in both the Defence and business world. This paper...illustrated with small examples. We also demonstrate a single, flexible approach to combining these methods using a typical Defence strategic planning problem

  16. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  17. Selecting climate change scenarios using impact-relevant sensitivities

    Treesearch

    Julie A. Vano; John B. Kim; David E. Rupp; Philip W. Mote

    2015-01-01

    Climate impact studies often require the selection of a small number of climate scenarios. Ideally, a subset would have simulations that both (1) appropriately represent the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation and (2) come from global climate models (GCMs) that provide plausible results for future climate in the...

  18. [The body as the scenario for social vulnerability regarding health].

    PubMed

    Ortega-Bolaños, Jesús A; Bula-Escobar, Jorge I

    2012-10-01

    Theoretical reflection concerning the human body within a scenario of social healthcare practices recognizes its nature through ontological dimensions for defining our finiteness and facticity in a world where nobody experiences their own birth or death but rather experiences such events through others. Considering health as an overall process called existence, being conscious of one's own body in terms of dynamic states of health and disease, is related to scenarios where the body has played a central role in the existential experience of the culture which it has built and in which it has been living, as well as in the relationship of knowledge with how power is exercised. Relationships between knowledge, power, resistance and the action of bodies are scenarios concerning social vulnerability regarding health. We wish to raise awareness concerning the relationship between bodies and social vulnerability regarding health as an emergent scenario for promoting discussion dealing with claiming the right to health and the chances of it being positively affected by public health policy from a trans-sector response and a community-based response proposed by Colombian society and culture.

  19. Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

  20. Asia and the Pacific in 2020: Scenarios for Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Power, Colin

    2009-01-01

    By 2020 our world will have changed and with it the shape and role of education and of educational research. One cannot predict the future, but in this paper three possible scenarios are outlined reflecting alternative approaches of government to the economic, political, social and environmental challenges facing the Asia Pacific region. For each…

  1. A Blended Learning Scenario to Enhance Learners' Oral Production Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Hee-Kyung

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the effectiveness of a mobile assisted blended learning scenario for pronunciation in Korean language. In particular, we analyze how asynchronous oral communication between learners of Korean and native speakers via "kakaotalk" (an open source mobile phone application) may be beneficial to the learner in terms of…

  2. The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User's Guide for Research Libraries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Association of Research Libraries, 2010

    2010-01-01

    This user's guide was developed to advance local planning at ARL member libraries. It is written for library leaders writ large and for anyone leading or contributing to research library planning processes. Users do not need advanced facilitation skills to benefit from this guide, but facilitators charged with supporting scenario planning will…

  3. Natural Hazards Risk Reduction and the ARkStorm Scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cox, D. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, F. M.

    2016-12-01

    The ARkStorm Scenario project began in 2008, led by the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (now Science Application for Risk Reduction) in an effort to innovate the application of science to reduce natural-hazard risk associated with large atmospheric-river (AR) storms on the West Coast of the US. The effort involved contributions from many federal, state and academic organizations including NOAA's Environmental Systems Laboratory. The ARkStorm project used new understanding of atmospheric river physics, combined with downscaled meteorological data from two recent ARs (in 1969 and 1986), to describe and model a prolonged sequence of back-to-back storms similar to those that bankrupted California in 1862. With this scientifically plausible (but not worst-case) scenario, the ARkStorm team engaged flood and levee experts to identify plausible flooding extents and durations, created a coastal-storm inundation model (CoSMoS), and California's first landslide susceptibility map, to better understand secondary meteorological and geophysical hazards (flood, wind, landslide, coastal erosion and inundation) across California. Physical damages to homes, infrastructure, agriculture, and the environment were then estimated to calculate the likely social and economic impact to California and the nation. Across California, property damage from the ARkStorm scenario was estimated to exceed 300 billion, mostly from flooding. Including damage and losses, lifeline damages and business interruptions, the total cost of an ARkStorm-sized series of storms came to nearly 725 billion, nearly three times the losses estimated from another SAFRR scenario describing a M7.8 earthquake in southern California. Thus, atmospheric rivers have the potential to be California's other "Big One." Since its creation, the ARkStorm scenario has been used in preparedness exercises by NASA, the US Navy, the State of California, the County of Ventura, and cities and counties in the Tahoe Basin and

  4. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    The scientific community is developing new integrated global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes; the risks these could pose to human and natural systems, particularly how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce the risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; residual impacts under alternative pathways; and the relationship with sustainable development. Developing new scenarios for use in impacts, adaptation, and mitigation research requires more than emissions of greenhouse gases and resulting climate change. Scenarios also require assumptions about socioeconomic development, including a narrative, and qualitative and quantitative assumptions about development patterns. An insight recently gained is that the magnitude and extent of greenhouse gas emissions is relatively independent of demographic and socioeconomic development; that is, multiple demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can lead to any particular emission scenario. A relatively wealthy world with high population density could have low greenhouse gas emissions because of policies that encourage energy efficiency and sufficient low emission technology. The opposite also is plausible. Therefore, demographic and socioeconomic development pathways can be described separately from the Representative Concentration Pathways and then combined using a matrix architecture into a broader range of scenarios than was possible with the SRES. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale. To encompass a wide range of possible development pathways, five SSPs are defined along two axes describing worlds with increasing socioeconomic challenges to mitigation (y-axis) and adaptation (x

  5. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Na, Yong-Su; Kessel, C. E.; Park, J. M.; Yi, Sumin; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A. C. C.; Kim, J. Y.

    2009-11-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; βN above 3, H98(y, 2) up to 2.0, fBS up to 0.76 and fNI equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of qmin is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work. Finally

  6. Simulations of KSTAR high performance steady state operation scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Na, Y S; Kessel, C. E.; Park, Jin Myung; Yi, Sumin; Becoulet, A.; Sips, A C C; Kim, J Y

    2009-01-01

    We report the results of predictive modelling of high performance steady state operation scenarios in KSTAR. Firstly, the capabilities of steady state operation are investigated with time-dependent simulations using a free-boundary plasma equilibrium evolution code coupled with transport calculations. Secondly, the reproducibility of high performance steady state operation scenarios developed in the DIII-D tokamak, of similar size to that of KSTAR, is investigated using the experimental data taken from DIII-D. Finally, the capability of ITER-relevant steady state operation is investigated in KSTAR. It is found that KSTAR is able to establish high performance steady state operation scenarios; beta(N) above 3, H-98(y, 2) up to 2.0, f(BS) up to 0.76 and f(NI) equals 1.0. In this work, a realistic density profile is newly introduced for predictive simulations by employing the scaling law of a density peaking factor. The influence of the current ramp-up scenario and the transport model is discussed with respect to the fusion performance and non-inductive current drive fraction in the transport simulations. As observed in the experiments, both the heating and the plasma current waveforms in the current ramp-up phase produce a strong effect on the q-profile, the fusion performance and also on the non-inductive current drive fraction in the current flattop phase. A criterion in terms of q(min) is found to establish ITER-relevant steady state operation scenarios. This will provide a guideline for designing the current ramp-up phase in KSTAR. It is observed that the transport model also affects the predictive values of fusion performance as well as the non-inductive current drive fraction. The Weiland transport model predicts the highest fusion performance as well as non-inductive current drive fraction in KSTAR. In contrast, the GLF23 model exhibits the lowest ones. ITER-relevant advanced scenarios cannot be obtained with the GLF23 model in the conditions given in this work

  7. Sequestered de Sitter string scenarios: soft-terms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aparicio, Luis; Cicoli, Michele; Krippendorf, Sven; Maharana, Anshuman; Muia, Francesco; Quevedo, Fernando

    2014-11-01

    We analyse soft supersymmetry breaking in type IIB de Sitter string vacua after moduli stabilisation, focussing on models in which the Standard Model is sequestered from the supersymmetry breaking sources and the spectrum of soft-terms is hierarchically smaller than the gravitino mass m 3/2. Due to this feature, these models are compatible with gauge coupling unification and TeV scale supersymmetry with no cosmological moduli problem. We determine the influence on soft-terms of concrete realisations of de Sitter vacua constructed from supersymmetric effective actions. One of these scenarios provides the first study of soft-terms for consistent string models embedded in a compact Calabi-Yau manifold with all moduli stabilised. Depending on the moduli dependence of the Kähler metric for matter fields and on the mechanism responsible to obtain a de Sitter vacuum, we find two scenarios for phenomenology: (i) a split-supersymmetry scenario where gaugino masses are suppressed with respect to scalar masses: M 1/2 ˜ m 3/2 ɛ ≪ m 0 ˜ m 3/2 ≪ m 3/2 for ɛ ˜ m 3/2 /M P ≪ 1; (ii) a typical MSSM scenario where all soft-terms are of the same order: M 1/2 ˜ m 0 ˜ m 3/2 ɛ ≪ m 3/2. Background fluxes determine the numerical coefficients of the soft-terms allowing for small variations of parameters as is necessary to confront data and to interpolate between different scenarios. We comment on different stringy origins of the μ-term and potential sources of desequestering.

  8. Scenarios for Consuming Standardized Automated Demand Response Signals

    SciTech Connect

    Koch, Ed; Piette, Mary Ann

    2008-10-03

    Automated Demand Response (DR) programs require that Utility/ISO's deliver DR signals to participants via a machine to machine communications channel. Typically these DR signals constitute business logic information (e.g. prices and reliability/shed levels) as opposed to commands to control specific loads in the facility. At some point in the chain from the Utility/ISO to the loads in a facility, the business level information sent by the Utility/ISO must be processed and used to execute a DR strategy for the facility. This paper explores the various scenarios and types of participants that may utilize DR signals from the Utility/ISO. Specifically it explores scenarios ranging from single end user facility, to third party facility managers and DR Aggregators. In each of these scenarios it is pointed out where the DR signal sent from the Utility/ISO is processed and turned into the specific load control commands that are part of a DR strategy for a facility. The information in these signals is discussed. In some cases the DR strategy will be completely embedded in the facility while in others it may be centralized at a third party (e.g. Aggregator) and part of an aggregated set of facilities. This paper also discusses the pros and cons of the various scenarios and discusses how the Utility/ISO can use an open standardized method (e.g. Open Automated Demand Response Communication Standards) for delivering DR signals that will promote interoperability and insure that the widest range of end user facilities can participate in DR programs regardless of which scenario they belong to.

  9. Modeling the vulnerability of hydroelectricity generation under drought scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yan, E.; Tidwell, V. C.; Bizjack, M.; Espinoza, V.; Jared, A.

    2015-12-01

    Hydroelectricity generation highly relies on in-stream and reservoir water availability. The western US has recently experienced increasingly sever, frequent, and prolonged droughts resulting in significant water availability issues. A large number of hydropower plants in Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) are located in California River Basin and Pacific Northwest River Basin. In supporting the WECC's long-term transmission planning, a drought impact analysis was performed with a series of data and modeling tools. This presentation will demonstrate a case study for California River Basin, which has recently experienced one of the worst droughts in its history. The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential risk for hydroelectricity generation due to projected drought scenarios in the medium-term (through the year of 2030). On the basis of historical droughts and the projected drought year for 2020-2030, three drought scenarios were identified. The hydrologic model was constructed and calibrated to simulate evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, irrigation as well as reservoir storage and discharge based on various dam operation rules and targets under three drought scenarios. The model also incorporates the projected future water demand in 2030 (e.g. municipal, agricultural, electricity generation). The projected monthly reservoir discharges were used to predict the monthly hydropower generation for hydropower plants with a capacity greater than 50 MW in California River Basin for each drought scenario. The results from this study identify spatial distribution of vulnerable hydropower plants and watersheds as well as the level of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios and provide valuable insights into future mitigation strategies and long-term planning.

  10. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    In planning and coordinating emergency response, utilities, local government, and other organizations are best served by conducting training exercises based on realistic earthquake situations-ones that they are most likely to face. Scenario earthquakes can fill this role; they can be generated for any geologically plausible earthquake or for actual historic earthquakes. ShakeMap Web pages now display selected earthquake scenarios (www.trinet.org/shake/archive/scenario/html) and more events will be added as they are requested and produced. We will discuss the methodology and provide practical examples where these scenarios are used directly for risk reduction. Given a selected event, we have developed tools to make it relatively easy to generate a ShakeMap earthquake scenario using the following steps: 1) Assume a particular fault or fault segment will (or did) rupture over a certain length, 2) Determine the magnitude of the earthquake based on assumed rupture dimensions, 3) Estimate the ground shaking at all locations in the chosen area around the fault, and 4) Represent these motions visually by producing ShakeMaps and generating ground motion input for loss estimation modeling (e.g., FEMA's HAZUS). At present, ground motions are estimated using empirical attenuation relationships to estimate peak ground motions on rock conditions. We then correct the amplitude at that location based on the local site soil (NEHRP) conditions as we do in the general ShakeMap interpolation scheme. Finiteness is included explicitly, but directivity enters only through the empirical relations. Although current ShakeMap earthquake scenarios are empirically based, substantial improvements in numerical ground motion modeling have been made in recent years. However, loss estimation tools, HAZUS for example, typically require relatively high frequency (3 Hz) input for predicting losses, above the range of frequencies successfully modeled to date. Achieving full-synthetic ground motion

  11. Ground-motion modeling of Hayward fault scenario earthquakes, part I: Construction of the suite of scenarios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Aagaard, Brad T.; Graves, Robert W.; Schwartz, David P.; Ponce, David A.; Graymer, Russell W.

    2010-01-01

    We construct kinematic earthquake rupture models for a suite of 39 Mw 6.6-7.2 scenario earthquakes involving the Hayward, Calaveras, and Rodgers Creek faults. We use these rupture models in 3D ground-motion simulations as discussed in Part II (Aagaard et al., 2010) to provide detailed estimates of the shaking for each scenario. We employ both geophysical constraints and empirical relations to provide realistic variation in the rupture dimensions, slip heterogeneity, hypocenters, rupture speeds, and rise times. The five rupture lengths include portions of the Hayward fault as well as combined rupture of the Hayward and Rodgers Creek faults and the Hayward and Calaveras faults. We vary rupture directivity using multiple hypocenters, typically three per rupture length, yielding north-to-south rupture, bilateral rupture, and south-to-north rupture. For each rupture length and hypocenter, we consider multiple random distributions of slip. We use two approaches to account for how aseismic creep might reduce coseismic slip. For one subset of scenarios, we follow the slip-predictable approach and reduce the nominal slip in creeping regions according to the creep rate and time since the most recent earthquake, whereas for another subset of scenarios we apply a vertical gradient to the nominal slip in creeping regions. The rupture models include local variations in rupture speed and use a ray-tracing algorithm to propagate the rupture front. Although we are not attempting to simulate the 1868 Hayward fault earthquake in detail, a few of the scenarios are designed to have source parameters that might be similar to this historical event.

  12. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  13. Biomass Potentials in Different Maintenance Scenarios of Satoyama Woodlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Terada, T.

    2012-04-01

    Woodlands near human settlements often have long histories of providing people with fuelwood and other organic materials. In Japan, these woodlands are called satoyama. While satoyama woodlands were historically coppiced to provide an essential source of fuelwood, many have been developed into residential areas as a result of the introduction of fossil fuels beginning in the 1960's. Remaining satoyamas were simply abandoned due to the loss of economic value from fuelwood. This has resulted in a loss of other satoyama-related functions such as their ecological function. In response to the abandonment of satoyamas, thousands of volunteer groups have formed since the 1990's to restore satoyama woodlands. However, in spite of the importance of grassroots volunteers, their actual activities are limited in spatial extent due to shortages of manpower, time, and maintenance skill. This suggests that more substantial incentives are necessary, if maintenance of satoyama woodlands is to be extended. This study focused on an increased attention of biomass enegy utilization from satoyama trees as a promising incentive, and estimated biomass potentials in different maintenance scenarios of satoyama woodlands through a case study site in peri-urban Tokyo. This study set four maintenance scenarios; a) ground cover removal, b) light-thinning, c) intensive-thinning, and d) rotational coppicing. Based on the scenarios, the amount of biomass obtained, bioenergy generated, and carbon reduced were estimated respectively by the combination of conducting tree measurement and applying a long-term forest dynamics estimation model. Since there is tradeoff between CO2 reduction through woodenergy utilization and CO2 fixation by standing trees, these two variables were analyzed in tandem. The scenario that produces the most woody biomass was rotational coppicing, the maintenance scenario which also mimics historical management regimes. Despite the lowest potential of CO2 fixation by standing

  14. Potential release scenarios for carbon nanotubes used in composites.

    PubMed

    Nowack, Bernd; David, Raymond M; Fissan, Heinz; Morris, Howard; Shatkin, Jo Anne; Stintz, Michael; Zepp, Richard; Brouwer, Derk

    2013-09-01

    The expected widespread use of carbon nanotube (CNT)-composites in consumer products calls for an assessment of the possible release and exposure to workers, consumers and the environment. Release of CNTs may occur at all steps in the life cycle of products, but to date only limited information is available about release of CNTs from actual products and articles. As a starting point for exposure assessment, exploring sources and pathways of release helps to identify relevant applications and situations where the environment and especially humans may encounter releases of CNTs. It is the aim of this review to identify various potential release scenarios for CNTs used in polymers and identify the greatest likelihood of release at the various stages throughout the life-cycle of the product. The available information on release of CNTs from products and articles is reviewed in a first part. In a second part nine relevant release scenarios are described in detail: injection molding, manufacturing, sports equipment, electronics, windmill blades, fuel system components, tires, textiles, incineration, and landfills. Release from products can potentially occur by two pathways; (a) where free CNTs are released directly, or more frequently (b) where the initial release is a particle with CNTs embedded in the matrix, potentially followed by the subsequent release of CNTs from the matrix. The potential for release during manufacturing exists for all scenarios, however, this is also the situation when exposure can be best controlled. For most of the other life cycle stages and their corresponding release scenarios, potential release of CNTs can be considered to be low, but it cannot be excluded totally. Direct release to the environment is also considered to be very low for most scenarios except for the use of CNTs in tires where significant abrasion during use and release into the environment would occur. Also the possible future use of CNTs in textiles could result in consumer

  15. Sustainable development of food production: a case study on scenarios for pig production.

    PubMed

    Stern, Susanne; Sonesson, Ulf; Gunnarsson, Stefan; Oborn, Ingrid; Kumm, Karl-Ivar; Nybrant, Thomas

    2005-06-01

    To study future, sustainable production systems, a step-wise method was used to create three future scenarios for pig production based on different sustainability goals. The first scenario focused on animal welfare and the natural behavior of the animals. The second targeted low impacts on the environment and the efficient use of natural resources. The third scenario aimed at product quality and safety. Each scenario fulfilled different aspects of sustainability, but there were goal conflicts because no scenario fulfilled all sustainability goals. The scenarios were then parameterized. The environmental impact was calculated using the life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, and the economic cost was calculated from the same data set. The cost per kilo of pork was highest for the animal welfare scenario and similar for the other two scenarios. The environmental scenario had the lowest environmental impact, and the product-quality scenario the highest. The results are discussed based on different future priorities.

  16. Certifying the quantumness of a generalized coherent control scenario

    SciTech Connect

    Scholak, Torsten Brumer, Paul

    2014-11-28

    We consider the role of quantum mechanics in a specific coherent control scenario, designing a “coherent control interferometer” as the essential tool that links coherent control to quantum fundamentals. Building upon this allows us to rigorously display the genuinely quantum nature of a generalized weak-field coherent control scenario (utilizing 1 vs. 2 photon excitation) via a Bell-CHSH test. Specifically, we propose an implementation of “quantum delayed-choice” in a bichromatic alkali atom photoionization experiment. The experimenter can choose between two complementary situations, which are characterized by a random photoelectron spin polarization with particle-like behavior on the one hand, and by spin controllability and wave-like nature on the other. Because these two choices are conditioned coherently on states of the driving fields, it becomes physically unknowable, prior to measurement, whether there is control over the spin or not.

  17. On the origin of asteroids. [early solar system scenario

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cameron, A. G. W.

    1979-01-01

    A general scenario is described for the early history of the solar system. The primitive solar nebula is formed from the infall of gas from a collapsing interstellar cloud fragment. It becomes repeatedly unstable against collapse to form giant gaseous protoplanets. In the course of protoplanet evolution the center of the protoplanet enters a thermodynamic regime in which common rocky minerals become liquids; convection brings solids to the central region where a substantial fraction of them rain out to form a protoplanetary core. In the inner solar system protoplanetary envelopes are tidally stripped away, thus injecting into the solar nebula large equantities of chondrules and inclusions. Late in the development of the solar nebula, after most of the gas has disappeared, turbulence dies out and the small solids settle into a thin layer at midplane of the nebula. Gravitational instabilities in this layer form asteroidal and cometary bodies. Some further consequences of this scenario are discussed.

  18. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Lowery, Nathan; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter

    2007-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  19. Systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoette, Trisha Marie

    2012-03-01

    Throughout history, as new chemical threats arose, strategies for the defense against chemical attacks have also evolved. As a part of an Early Career Laboratory Directed Research and Development project, a systems analysis of past, present, and future chemical terrorism scenarios was performed to understand how the chemical threats and attack strategies change over time. For the analysis, the difficulty in executing chemical attack was evaluated within a framework of three major scenario elements. First, historical examples of chemical terrorism were examined to determine how the use of chemical threats, versus other weapons, contributed to the successful execution of the attack. Using the same framework, the future of chemical terrorism was assessed with respect to the impact of globalization and new technologies. Finally, the efficacy of the current defenses against contemporary chemical terrorism was considered briefly. The results of this analysis justify the need for continued diligence in chemical defense.

  20. A nonextensive critical phenomenon scenario for quantum entanglement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsallis, Constantino; Lamberti, Pedro W.; Prato, Domingo

    2001-06-01

    We discuss the paradigmatic bipartite spin- {1}/{2} system having the probabilities (1+3 x)/4 of being in the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen fully entangled state |Ψ ->≡1/ 2(|↑> A|↓> B-|↓> A|↑> B) and 3(1- x)/4 of being orthogonal. This system is known to be separable if and only if x⩽ {1}/{3} (Peres criterion). This critical value has been recently recovered by Abe and Rajagopal through the use of the nonextensive entropic form S q≡(1-Tr ρ q)/(q-1) (q∈ R; S 1=-Tr ρ ln ρ) which has enabled a current generalization of Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics. This result has been enrichened by Lloyd, Baranger and one of the present authors by proposing a critical-phenomenon-like scenario for quantum entanglement. Here, we further illustrate and discuss this scenario through the calculation of some relevant quantities.

  1. Climate scenarios for the Truckee-Carson River system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, Michael; Sterle, Kelley; Simpson, Karen; Singletary, Loretta; Fitzgerald, Kelsey; McCarthy, Maureen

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the scenarios ultimately take the form of gridded, daily (maximum and minimum) temperatures and precipitation totals spanning the entire Truckee-Carson River System, from which meteorological inputs to various hydrologic, water-balance and watermanagement models can be extracted by other parts of the Water for the Seasons project and by other studies and stakeholders. Climate scenarios are constructed using: 1) survey data from interviews with 66 Truckee-Carson River System water-management and water-interest organizations to identify plausible drought and high-flow events that could stress the system irreparably; 2) input from the Stakeholder Affiliate Group and other modelers on the Water for the Seasons team to gain additional key stakeholder input with regard to organizational survey results and to identify the most pressing water-management issues being faced in the system; and 3) historical climate datasets used to simulate possible future conditions.

  2. Impact of W on scenario simulations for ITER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogeweij, G. M. D.; Leonov, V.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A. C. C.; Angioni, C.; Calabrò, G.; Dux, R.; Kallenbach, A.; Lerche, E.; Maggi, C.; Pütterich, Th.; ITPA Integrated Operating Scenarios topical Group; ASDEX Upgrade Team; Contributors, JET

    2015-06-01

    In preparation of ITER operation, large machines have replaced their wall and divertor material to W (ASDEX Upgrade) or a combination of Be for the wall and W for the divertor (JET). Operation in these machines has shown that the influx of W can have a significant impact on the discharge evolution, which has made modelling of this impact for ITER an urgent task. This paper reports on such modelling efforts. Maximum tolerable W concentrations have been determined for various scenarios, both for the current ramp-up and flat-top phase. Results of two independent methods are presented, based on the codes ZIMPUR plus ASTRA and CRONOS, respectively. Both methods have been tested and benchmarked against ITER-like Ip RU experiments at JET. It is found that W significantly disturbs the discharge evolution when the W concentration approaches ˜10-4 this critical level varies somewhat between scenarios.

  3. Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to Aviation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hendricks, Robert C.; Daggett, David L.; Anast, Peter; Lowery, Nathan

    2011-01-01

    In recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.

  4. Estimating surface faulting impacts from the shakeout scenario earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Treiman, J.A.; Pontib, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacements that would occur to each lifeline impacted by the rupture. Different approaches were required to address variable slip distribution in response to a variety of fault patterns. Our results, involving judgment and experience, represent one plausible outcome and are not predictive because of the variable nature of surface rupture. ?? 2011, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  5. Melting scenarios for three-dimensional dusty plasma clusters.

    PubMed

    Schella, André; Miksch, Tobias; Melzer, André; Schablinski, Jan; Block, Dietmar; Piel, Alexander; Thomsen, Hauke; Ludwig, Patrick; Bonitz, Michael

    2011-11-01

    The melting transition of finite three-dimensional dust clouds (Yukawa balls) from a solid-like to a liquid-like state is systematically studied with high spatial and temporal resolution of the individual grains by means of stereoscopy. Two different melting scenarios are reported: Melting is induced first by an increase of plasma power, and second by laser-induced heating. The experiments confirm that melting starts with a loss of orientational correlation, followed by a loss of the radial order upon further heating. While the plasma-power melting is driven via the ion wakefield, laser heating provides a more equilibrium scenario. The internal loss of correlations is well captured by the triple correlation function (TCF) which is insensitive to particle exchanges and the rotation of the cluster as a whole. The critical Coulomb coupling parameter for N=35 is determined as Γ(crit)≈570. The experimental findings are in good agreement with thermodynamic Monte Carlo simulations.

  6. Medicine in 2035: Selected Insights From ACGME's Scenario Planning.

    PubMed

    Nasca, Thomas J; Thomas, Charles W

    2015-03-01

    The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) has the responsibility for overseeing the preparation of future physician specialists and subspecialists to serve the American public. To ensure ACGME's ability to adapt and sustain its accreditation activities in a future marked by significant uncertainty, its administration and board of directors embarked on a planning process that would frame its strategic actions in support of this responsibility. We describe the scenario planning process, and report key insights that resulted from it. We also discuss in greater depth a subset of those insights, which challenge certain conventional truths, call for new collaborative directions for the ACGME, and reaffirm the importance of professionalism in service of the public across all future scenarios evaluated.

  7. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  8. Space mission scenario development and performance analysis tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kordon, Mark; Baker, John; Gilbert, John; Hanks, David

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses a new and innovative approach for a rapid spacecraft multi-disciplinary performance analysis using a tool called the Mission Scenario Development Workbench (MSDW). To meet the needs of new classes of space missions, analysis tools with proven models were developed and integrated into a framework to enable rapid trades and analyses between spacecraft designs and operational scenarios during the formulation phase of a mission. Generally speaking, spacecraft resources are highly constrained on deep space missions and this approach makes it possible to maximize the use of existing resources to attain the best possible science return. This approach also has the potential benefit of reducing the risk of costly design changes made later in the design cycle necessary to meet the mission requirements by understanding system design sensitivities early and adding appropriate margins. This paper will describe the approach used by the Mars Science Laboratory Project to accomplish this result.

  9. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters.

    PubMed

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.

  10. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    PubMed Central

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-01-01

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria. PMID:27874006

  11. Solving and Learning Soft Temporal Constraints: Experimental Scenario and Examples

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rossi, F.; Venable, K. B.; Sperduti, A.; Khatib, L.; Morris, P.; Morris, R.; Koga, Dennis (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Soft temporal constraint problems allow to describe in a natural way scenarios where events happen over time and preferences are associated to event distances and durations. However, sometimes such local preferences are difficult to set, and it may be easier instead to associate preferences to some complete solutions of the problem. To model everything in a uniform way via local preferences only, and also to take advantage of the existing constraint solvers which exploit only local preference use machine learning techniques which learn the local preferences from the global ones. In this paper we describe the existing framework for both solving and learning preferences in temporal constraint problems, the implemented modules, the experimental scenario, and preliminary results on some examples.

  12. Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions.

    PubMed

    Diniz-Filho, J A F

    2004-08-01

    The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill). Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive) scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction) for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

  13. Using scenarios to capture work processes in shared home care.

    PubMed

    Hägglund, Maria; Scandurra, Isabella; Koch, Sabine

    2007-01-01

    Shared home care is increasingly common, and in order to develop ICT that support such complex cooperative work it is crucial obtain an understanding of the work routines, information demands, and other central preconditions at the clinical level before the development is initiated. Scenarios are proposed as a technique that can be useful for capturing work processes in shared home care and experiences from the Old@Home project are presented. The scenarios are useful not only in the initial phases of the development project but throughout the development process, improving the accessibility of end user requirements and usability issues for the design team, and as a basis for use cases and further design.

  14. Police lie detection accuracy: the effect of lie scenario.

    PubMed

    O'Sullivan, Maureen; Frank, Mark G; Hurley, Carolyn M; Tiwana, Jaspreet

    2009-12-01

    Although most people are not better than chance in detecting deception, some groups of police professionals have demonstrated significant lie detection accuracy. One reason for this difference may be that the types of lies police are asked to judge in scientific experiments often do not represent the types of lies they see in their profession. Across 23 studies, involving 31 different police groups in eight countries, police officers tested with lie detection scenarios using high stakes lies (i.e., the lie was personally involving and/or resulted in substantial rewards or punishments for the liar) were significantly more accurate than law enforcement officials tested with low stakes lies. Face validity and construct validity of various lie scenarios are differentiated.

  15. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    DOE PAGES

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-22

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethoramore » of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Lastly, our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.« less

  16. Biased Interpretation of Ambiguous Social Scenarios in Anorexia Nervosa.

    PubMed

    Cardi, Valentina; Turton, Robert; Schifano, Sylvia; Leppanen, Jenni; Hirsch, Colette R; Treasure, Janet

    2017-01-01

    Patients with anorexia nervosa experience increased sensitivity to the risk of social rejection. The aims of this study were to assess the interpretation of ambiguous social scenarios depicting the risk of rejection and to examine the relationship between interpretation biases and clinical symptoms. Thirty-five women with anorexia nervosa and 30 healthy eaters completed clinical questionnaires, alongside a sentence completion task. This task required participants to generate completions to ambiguous social scenarios and to endorse their best completion. Responses were rated as being negative, neutral or positive. Patients endorsed more negative interpretations and fewer neutral and positive interpretations compared with healthy eaters. The frequency of endorsed negative interpretations correlated with depression, anxiety and fear of weight gain and body disturbance. A negative interpretation bias towards social stimuli is present in women with anorexia nervosa and correlates with clinical symptoms. Interventions aimed at reducing this bias could improve illness prognosis. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  17. Short distance modifications to Newton's law in SUSY braneworld scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Palma, Gonzalo A.

    2007-11-20

    In braneworld models coming from string theory one generally encounters massless scalar degrees of freedom-moduli-parameterizing the volume of small compact extra-dimensions. Here we discuss the effects of such moduli on Newtont's law for a fairly general 5-D supersymmetric braneworld scenario with a bulk scalar field {phi}. We show that the Newtonian potential describing the gravitational interaction between two bodies localized on the visible brane picks up a non-trivial contribution at short distances that depends on the shape of the superpotential W({phi}) of the theory. In particular, we compute this contribution for dilatonic braneworld scenarios W({phi}){proportional_to}e{sup {alpha}}{sup {phi}} (where {alpha} is a constant) and discuss the particular case of 5-D Heterotic M-theory.

  18. On the extra force in brane world scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bejancu, Aurel; Farran, Hani Reda

    2014-09-01

    In the study of the dynamics in a 5D bulk from brane world scenario, an extra force with abnormal properties was detected (cf. [D. Youm, Extra force in brane worlds, Phys. Rev. D62 (2000) 084002; D. Youm, Null geodesics in brane world universe, Mod. Phys. Lett. A16 (2001) 2371; L. F. Zhang and Y. Z. Zhang, Null geodesics in brane world scenarios, Commun. Theor. Phys. (Beijing)41 (2004) 48]). In this paper, by using the Riemannian horizontal connection introduced in [A. Bejancu, A new point of view on general Kaluza-Klein theories, Progr. Theor. Phys.128 (2012) 541], we give a new definition for the extra force in a 5D bulk, and show that it does not contradict the 4D physics. In particular, we show that this force appears very rarely along geodesics in a warped 5D bulk.

  19. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  20. Fission and fusion scenarios for magnetic microswimmer clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzmán-Lastra, Francisca; Kaiser, Andreas; Löwen, Hartmut

    2016-11-01

    Fission and fusion processes of particle clusters occur in many areas of physics and chemistry from subnuclear to astronomic length scales. Here we study fission and fusion of magnetic microswimmer clusters as governed by their hydrodynamic and dipolar interactions. Rich scenarios are found that depend crucially on whether the swimmer is a pusher or a puller. In particular a linear magnetic chain of pullers is stable while a pusher chain shows a cascade of fission (or disassembly) processes as the self-propulsion velocity is increased. Contrarily, magnetic ring clusters show fission for any type of swimmer. Moreover, we find a plethora of possible fusion (or assembly) scenarios if a single swimmer collides with a ringlike cluster and two rings spontaneously collide. Our predictions are obtained by computer simulations and verifiable in experiments on active colloidal Janus particles and magnetotactic bacteria.