Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) over mountainous region of Cameron Highlands- Batang Padang Catchment of Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sidek, L. M.; Mohd Nor, M. D.; Rakhecha, P. R.; Basri, H.; Jayothisa, W.; Muda, R. S.; Ahmad, M. N.; Razad, A. Z. Abdul

2013-06-01

The Cameron Highland Batang Padang (CHBP) catchment situated on the main mountain range of Peninsular Malaysia is of large economical importance where currently a series of three dams (Sultan Abu Bakar, Jor and Mahang) exist in the development of water resources and hydropower. The prediction of the design storm rainfall values for different return periods including PMP values can be useful to review the adequacy of the current spillway capacities of these dams. In this paper estimates of the design storm rainfalls for various return periods and also the PMP values for rainfall stations in the CHBP catchment have been computed for the three different durations of 1, 3 & 5 days. The maximum values for 1 day, 3 days and 5 days PMP values are found to be 730.08mm, 966.17mm and 969.0mm respectively at Station number 4513033 Gunung Brinchang. The PMP values obtained were compared with previous study results undertaken by NAHRIM. However, the highest ratio of 1 day, 3 day and 5 day PMP to highest observed rainfall are found to be 2.30, 1.94 and 1.82 respectively. This shows that the ratio tend to decrease as the duration increase. Finally, the temporal pattern for 1 day, 3day and 5 days have been developed based on observed extreme rainfall at station 4513033 Gunung Brinchang for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) in dam break analysis.

An overview of urban stormwater-management practices in Miami-Dade County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chin, David A.

2004-01-01

Agencies with jurisdiction over stormwater-management systems in Miami-Dade County, Florida, include the Miami-Dade Department of Environmental Resources Management (DERM), South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), and Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT). These agencies are primarily concerned with minor drainage systems that handle runoff from storms with return periods of 10 years or less (DERM), major drainage systems that handle runoff from storms with return periods of 25 years or more (SFWMD), and runoff from major roadways (FDOT). All drainage regulations require retention of at least a specified water-quality volume (defined volume of surface runoff), typically the first inch of runoff. The DERM and FDOT intensity duration frequency (IDF) curves used as a basis for design are similar but different, with differences particularly apparent for short-duration storms. The SFWMD 25-year 3-day storm incorporates an IDF curve that is substantially different from both the IDF curves of DERM and FDOT. A DERM methodology for designing closed exfiltration systems is applicable to storms of 1-hour duration, but is not applicable to all storms with a given T-year return period. A trench design that is applicable to all storms with a given T-year return period is presented as an alternative approach.

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Stephen

2016-04-01

The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and observational errors are reduced by the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between storm data sets. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit (re-)insurance applications. The shortest storm data set of 42 years provides indications of stronger clustering with severity, particularly for regions off the main storm track in central Europe and France. However, clustering estimates have very large sampling and observational errors, exemplified by large changes in estimates in central Europe upon removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm data sets show increased clustering between more severe storms from return periods (RPs) of 0.5 years to the longest measured RPs of about 20 years. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are more uncertain as they are drawn from smaller data samples. These new ultra-long storm data sets provide new information on clustering to improve our management of this risk.

Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2011-12-01

Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; McCall, Robert T.; van Rooijen, Arnold; Norris, Benjamin

2015-01-01

This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

Impact of climate change on Gironde Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laborie, Vanessya; Hissel, François; Sergent, Philippe

2014-05-01

Within the THESEUS European project, a simplified mathematical model for storm surge levels in the Bay of Biscay was adjusted on 10 events at Le Verdon using wind and pressure fields from CLM/SGA, so that the water levels at Le Verdon have the same statistic quantiles as observed tide records for the period [1960-2000]. The analysis of future storm surge levels shows a decrease in their quantiles at Le Verdon, whereas there is an increase of the quantiles of total water levels. This increase is smaller than the sea level rise and gets even smaller as one enters farther upstream in the estuary. A numerical model of the Gironde Estuary was then used to evaluate future water levels at 6 locations of the estuary from Le Verdon to Bordeaux and to assess the changes in the quantiles of water levels during the XXIst century using ONERC's pessimistic scenario for sea level rise (60 cm). The model was fed by several data sources : wind fields at Royan and Mérignac interpolated from the grid of the European Climatolologic Model CLM/SGA, a tide signal at Le Verdon, the discharges of Garonne (at La Réole), the Dordogne (at Pessac) and Isle (at Libourne). A series of flood maps for different return periods between 2 and 100 years and for four time periods ([1960-1999], [2010-2039], [2040-2069] and [2070-2099]) have been built for the region of Bordeaux. Quantiles of water levels in the floodplain have also been calculated. The impact of climate change on the evolution of flooded areas in the Gironde Estuary and on quantiles of water levels in the floodplain mainly depends on the sea level rise. Areas which are not currently flooded for low return periods will be inundated in 2100. The influence of river discharges and dike breaching should also be taken into account for more accurate results.

Phosphorus loss from an agricultural watershed as a function of storm size.

PubMed

Sharpley, Andrew N; Kleinman, Peter J A; Heathwaite, A Louise; Gburek, William J; Folmar, Gordon J; Schmidt, John P

2008-01-01

Phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural watersheds is generally greater in storm rather than base flow. Although fundamental to P-based risk assessment tools, few studies have quantified the effect of storm size on P loss. Thus, the loss of P as a function of flow type (base and storm flow) and size was quantified for a mixed-land use watershed (FD-36; 39.5 ha) from 1997 to 2006. Storm size was ranked by return period (<1, 1-3, 3-5, 5-10, and >10 yr), where increasing return period represents storms with greater peak and total flow. From 1997 to 2006, storm flow accounted for 32% of watershed discharge yet contributed 65% of dissolved reactive P (DP) (107 g ha(-1) yr(-1)) and 80% of total P (TP) exported (515 g ha(-1) yr(-1)). Of 248 storm flows during this period, 93% had a return period of <1 yr, contributing most of the 10-yr flow (6507 m(3) ha(-1); 63%) and export of DP (574 g ha(-1); 54%) and TP (2423 g ha(-1); 47%). Two 10-yr storms contributed 23% of P exported between 1997 and 2006. A significant increase in storm flow DP concentration with storm size (0.09-0.16 mg L(-1)) suggests that P release from soil and/or area of the watershed producing runoff increase with storm size. Thus, implementation of P-based Best Management Practice needs to consider what level of risk management is acceptable.

IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariff, N. M.; Jemain, A. A.; Ibrahim, K.; Wan Zin, W. Z.

2012-11-01

SummaryIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in many hydrologic designs for the purpose of water managements and flood preventions. The IDF curves available in Malaysia are those obtained from univariate analysis approach which only considers the intensity of rainfalls at fixed time intervals. As several rainfall variables are correlated with each other such as intensity and duration, this paper aims to derive IDF points for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia by means of bivariate frequency analysis. This is achieved through utilizing the relationship between storm intensities and durations using the copula method. Four types of copulas; namely the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Frank, Gaussian and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copulas are considered because the correlation between storm intensity, I, and duration, D, are negative and these copulas are appropriate when the relationship between the variables are negative. The correlations are attained by means of Kendall's τ estimation. The analysis was performed on twenty rainfall stations with hourly data across Peninsular Malaysia. Using Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) for testing goodness-of-fit, both Frank and Gaussian copulas are found to be suitable to represent the relationship between I and D. The IDF points found by the copula method are compared to the IDF curves yielded based on the typical IDF empirical formula of the univariate approach. This study indicates that storm intensities obtained from both methods are in agreement with each other for any given storm duration and for various return periods.

A flood risk assessment and mapping for Riga city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bethers, U.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Timuhins, A.

2009-04-01

Riga (population ca. 800,000) is the capital of Latvia. The city is located at the southern coast of Gulf of Riga along the lower stretch of the River Daugava. The water bodies adjacent or within the territory of the city are the River Daugava itself, its connection (Bullupe) to another major river - Lielupe, several minor tributaries of the River Daugava, as well as an interconnected lake system of estuarine origin. The flow in the lower stretch of the River Daugava is regulated by Riga hydropower plant which is situated approx. 25 kilometers upstream the river mouth. The lowest 12 kilometers of the river channel is dredged to ensure the operation of the Riga Freeport. The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood risk situations, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarious of different return periods, (3) the building and calibration of the hydrodynamical mathematical model for the domain potentially vulnerable for flooding, (4) the calculation of flood events with different return period, and (5) the detailed (horizontal accuracy around 10 m) of the potentially flooded areas. The combination of storm surges in the southern part of Gulf of Riga with unfavorable regime of hydropower plant operation was found as the most dangerous flooding situation. The time series of water level at the mouth of the River Daugava was analysed for more than 130 year long time period. The significant trend was found in the annual peak water level. Five significant storm events were found in time period 2001-2007 which roughly correspond to storm surges with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The model storm events were created by scaling waterlevel and meteorological conditions during these selected events, and superposing them with hydropowerplant operation regime. The finite-element based shallow water model was built for the area, potentially vulnerable for flooding. Heterogeneous depth/terrain information from various sources was integrated in the model. The linear objects (watercourses, dams, etc.) of hydraulic importance were included in the model. The typical spatial resolution of approx. 50-100 m was reached with total number of finite elements around 250,000. The hydrodynamical model was calibrated on the basis of water level observations in 5 different locations during 5 selected real storm events. The hydrodynamics of the flood scenarious were calculated for the model storm situations. The importance of the dynamical modeling of flooded areas was shown for the domain with a complex channel system and typical length of storm event below 18 hours. The method for the mapping of the results of hydrodynamical calculations on the digital terrain map of much higher (10 m) spatial resolution was proposed and applied.

Effects of increased urbanization from 1970's to 1990's on storm-runoff characteristics in Perris Valley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guay, J.R.

1996-01-01

Urban areas in Perris Valley, California, have more than tripled during the last 20 years. To quantify the effects of increased urbanization on storm runoff volumes and peak discharges, rainfall-runoff models of the basin were developed to simulate runoff for 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. Hourly rainfall data for 1949-93 were used with the rainfall-runoff models to simulate a long-term record of storm runoff. The hydrologic effects of increased urbanization from 1970-75 to 1990-93 were analyzed by comparing the simulated annual peak discharges and volumes, and storm runoff peaks, frequency of annual peak discharges and runoff volumes, and duration of storm peak discharges for each study period. A Log-Pearson Type-III frequency analysis was calculated using the simulated annual peaks to estimate the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year recurrence intervals. The estimated 2-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was 646 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 conditions and 1,328 cubic feet per second for the 1990-93 conditions. The 100-year discharge at the outlet of the basin was about 14,000 cubic feet per second for the 1970-75 and 1990-93 conditions. The station duration analysis used 925 model-simulated storm peaks from each basin to estimate the percent chance a peak discharge is exceeded. At the outlet of the basin, the chances of exceeding 100 cubic feet per second were about 33 percent under 1970-75 conditions and about 59 percent under 1990-93 conditions. The chance of exceeding 2,500 cubic feet per second at the outlet of the basin was less than 1 percent higher under the 1990-93 conditions than under the 1970-75 conditions. The increase in urbanization from the early 1970's to the early 1990's more than doubled the peak discharges with a 2-year return period. However, peak discharges with return periods greater than 50 years were not significantly affected by the change in urbanization.

Index for Predicting Insurance Claims from Wind Storms with an Application in France.

PubMed

Mornet, Alexandre; Opitz, Thomas; Luzi, Michel; Loisel, Stéphane

2015-11-01

For insurance companies, wind storms represent a main source of volatility, leading to potentially huge aggregated claim amounts. In this article, we compare different constructions of a storm index allowing us to assess the economic impact of storms on an insurance portfolio by exploiting information from historical wind speed data. Contrary to historical insurance portfolio data, meteorological variables show fewer nonstationarities between years and are easily available with long observation records; hence, they represent a valuable source of additional information for insurers if the relation between observations of claims and wind speeds can be revealed. Since standard correlation measures between raw wind speeds and insurance claims are weak, a storm index focusing on high wind speeds can afford better information. A storm index approach has been applied to yearly aggregated claim amounts in Germany with promising results. Using historical meteorological and insurance data, we assess the consistency of the proposed index constructions with respect to various parameters and weights. Moreover, we are able to place the major insurance events since 1998 on a broader horizon beyond 40 years. Our approach provides a meteorological justification for calculating the return periods of extreme-storm-related insurance events whose magnitude has rarely been reached. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Major storm periods and climate forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Bony, Guénaëlle

2015-12-01

Big storm events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. In the Western Mediterranean, where human societies colonized and occupied the coastal areas since the Ancient times, the variability of storm activity for the past three millennia was investigated with a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical study from a lagoonal sequence. Mappings of the geochemistry and magnetic susceptibility of detrital sources in the watershed of the lagoon and from the coastal barriers were undertaken in order to track the terrestrial or coastal/marine origin of sediments deposited into the lagoon. The multi-proxy analysis shows that coarser material, low magnetic susceptibility, and high strontium content characterize the sedimentological signature of the paleostorm levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. A comparison with North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean paleoclimate proxies shows that the phases of high storm activity occurred during cold periods, suggesting a climatically-controlled mechanism for the occurrence of these storm periods. Besides, an in-phase storm activity pattern is found between the Western Mediterranean and Northern Europe. Spectral analyses performed on the Sr content revealed a new 270-year solar-driven pattern of storm cyclicity. For the last 3000 years, this 270-year cycle defines a succession of ten major storm periods (SP) with a mean duration of 96 ± 54 yr. Periods of higher storm activity are recorded from >680 to 560 cal yr BC (SP10, end of the Iron Age Cold Period), from 140 to 820 cal yr AD (SP7 to SP5) with a climax of storminess between 400 and 800 cal yr AD (Dark Ages Cold Period), and from 1230 to >1800 cal yr AD (SP3 to SP1, Little Ice Age). Periods of low storm activity occurred from 560 cal yr BC to 140 cal yr AD (SP9 and SP8, Roman Warm Period) and from 820 to 1230 cal yr AD (SP4, Medieval Warm Period).

Changes in the extreme wave heights over the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudryavtseva, Nadia; Soomere, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Storms over the Baltic Sea and northwestern Europe have a large impact on the population, offshore industry, and shipping. The understanding of extreme events in sea wave heights and their change due to the climate change and variability is critical for assessment of flooding risks and coastal protection. The BACCII Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin showed that the extreme events analysis of wind waves is currently not very well addressed, as well as satellite observations of the wave heights. Here we discuss the analysis of all existing satellite altimetry data over the Baltic Sea Basin regarding extremes in the wave heights. In this talk for the first time, we present an analysis of 100-yr return periods, fitted generalized Pareto and Weibull distributions, number, and frequency of extreme events in wave heights in the Baltic Sea measured by the multi-mission satellite altimetry. The data span more than 23 years and provide an excellent spatial coverage over the Baltic Sea, allowing to study in details spatial variations and changes in extreme wave heights. The analysis is based on an application of the Initial Distribution Method, Annual Maxima method and Peak-Over-Threshold approach to satellite altimetry data, all validated in comparison with in-situ wave height measurements. Here we show that the 100-yr return periods of wave heights show significant spatial changes over the Baltic Sea indicating a decrease in the southern part of the Baltic Sea and an increase in adjacent areas, which can significantly affect coast vulnerability. Here we compare the observed shift with storm track database data and discuss a spatial correlation and possible connection between the changes in the storm tracks over the Baltic Sea and the change in the extreme wave heights.

Partitioning the impacts of spatial and climatological rainfall variability in urban drainage modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Blumensaat, Frank; Molnar, Peter; Fatichi, Simone; Burlando, Paolo

2017-03-01

The performance of urban drainage systems is typically examined using hydrological and hydrodynamic models where rainfall input is uniformly distributed, i.e., derived from a single or very few rain gauges. When models are fed with a single uniformly distributed rainfall realization, the response of the urban drainage system to the rainfall variability remains unexplored. The goal of this study was to understand how climate variability and spatial rainfall variability, jointly or individually considered, affect the response of a calibrated hydrodynamic urban drainage model. A stochastic spatially distributed rainfall generator (STREAP - Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation) was used to simulate many realizations of rainfall for a 30-year period, accounting for both climate variability and spatial rainfall variability. The generated rainfall ensemble was used as input into a calibrated hydrodynamic model (EPA SWMM - the US EPA's Storm Water Management Model) to simulate surface runoff and channel flow in a small urban catchment in the city of Lucerne, Switzerland. The variability of peak flows in response to rainfall of different return periods was evaluated at three different locations in the urban drainage network and partitioned among its sources. The main contribution to the total flow variability was found to originate from the natural climate variability (on average over 74 %). In addition, the relative contribution of the spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with longer return periods. This suggests that while the use of spatially distributed rainfall data can supply valuable information for sewer network design (typically based on rainfall with return periods from 5 to 15 years), there is a more pronounced relevance when conducting flood risk assessments for larger return periods. The results show the importance of using multiple distributed rainfall realizations in urban hydrology studies to capture the total flow variability in the response of the urban drainage systems to heavy rainfall events.

Modeling Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Wind Induced Risk Along the Bay of Bengal Coastline Using a Statistical Copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bushra, N.; Trepanier, J. C.; Rohli, R. V.

2017-12-01

High winds, torrential rain, and storm surges from tropical cyclones (TCs) cause massive destruction to property and cost the lives of many people. The coastline of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) ranks as one of the most susceptible to TC storm surges in the world due to low-lying elevation and a high frequency of occurrence. Bangladesh suffers the most due to its geographical setting and population density. Various models have been developed to predict storm surge in this region but none of them quantify statistical risk with empirical data. This study describes the relationship and dependency between empirical TC storm surge and peak reported wind speed at the BoB using a bivariate statistical copula and data from 1885-2011. An Archimedean, Gumbel copula with margins defined by the empirical distributions is specified as the most appropriate choice for the BoB. The model provides return periods for pairs of TC storm surge and peak wind along the BoB coastline. The BoB can expect a TC with peak reported winds of at least 24 m s-1 and surge heights of at least 4.0 m, on average, once every 3.2 years, with a quartile pointwise confidence interval of 2.7-3.8 years. In addition, the BoB can expect peak reported winds of 62 m s-1 and surge heights of at least 8.0 m, on average, once every 115.4 years, with a quartile pointwise confidence interval of 55.8-381.1 years. The purpose of the analysis is to increase the understanding of these dangerous TC characteristics to reduce fatalities and monetary losses into the future. Application of the copula will mitigate future threats of storm surge impacts on coastal communities of the BoB.

Spatial Intensity Duration Frequency Relationships Using Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for Urban Areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rupa, Chandra; Mujumdar, Pradeep

2016-04-01

In urban areas, quantification of extreme precipitation is important in the design of storm water drains and other infrastructure. Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) relationships are generally used to obtain design return level for a given duration and return period. Due to lack of availability of extreme precipitation data for sufficiently large number of years, estimating the probability of extreme events is difficult. Typically, a single station data is used to obtain the design return levels for various durations and return periods, which are used in the design of urban infrastructure for the entire city. In an urban setting, the spatial variation of precipitation can be high; the precipitation amounts and patterns often vary within short distances of less than 5 km. Therefore it is crucial to study the uncertainties in the spatial variation of return levels for various durations. In this work, the extreme precipitation is modeled spatially using the Bayesian hierarchical analysis and the spatial variation of return levels is studied. The analysis is carried out with Block Maxima approach for defining the extreme precipitation, using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for Bangalore city, Karnataka state, India. Daily data for nineteen stations in and around Bangalore city is considered in the study. The analysis is carried out for summer maxima (March - May), monsoon maxima (June - September) and the annual maxima rainfall. In the hierarchical analysis, the statistical model is specified in three layers. The data layer models the block maxima, pooling the extreme precipitation from all the stations. In the process layer, the latent spatial process characterized by geographical and climatological covariates (lat-lon, elevation, mean temperature etc.) which drives the extreme precipitation is modeled and in the prior level, the prior distributions that govern the latent process are modeled. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Metropolis Hastings algorithm within a Gibbs sampler) is used to obtain the samples of parameters from the posterior distribution of parameters. The spatial maps of return levels for specified return periods, along with the associated uncertainties, are obtained for the summer, monsoon and annual maxima rainfall. Considering various covariates, the best fit model is selected using Deviance Information Criteria. It is observed that the geographical covariates outweigh the climatological covariates for the monsoon maxima rainfall (latitude and longitude). The best covariates for summer maxima and annual maxima rainfall are mean summer precipitation and mean monsoon precipitation respectively, including elevation for both the cases. The scale invariance theory, which states that statistical properties of a process observed at various scales are governed by the same relationship, is used to disaggregate the daily rainfall to hourly scales. The spatial maps of the scale are obtained for the study area. The spatial maps of IDF relationships thus generated are useful in storm water designs, adequacy analysis and identifying the vulnerable flooding areas.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

Flooding Mitigation of seawalls and river embankments to storm surges in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianwei; Wang, Xina

2017-04-01

The coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China are susceptible to the destructions of tropical cyclones and storm surges. The projected global warming, coastal subsidence and sea level rise together will bring about greater flooding risk to these areas. The seawall and river embankment have played a significant role in mitigating and preventing the coastal low-land areas from the impairment of storm surges flooding and wave runup. However, few risk assessment studies in this region consider the existence of seawall and river embankment and often overestimate the risk and potential economic loss and population affected due to storm surge flooding. This study utilizes a hydraulic model to simulate the overtop flooding and compare those without seawall and river embankment using several specific tropic storm events and extreme events of tropic storm surges in different return periods of 2, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years. Most seawalls are 4 or 5 meters plus another meter of wave levee above the local mean sea level. The river embankments are usually 4 or 5 meter higher than the local mean sea level as well and decrease from the outer estuary to the inner riverine. The modeling results considering seawall and river embankments and from real storm surges are in agreement with on-site survey and observations, while those without infusing seawall and river embankments overestimate the inundation condition and economic loss. Modeling results demonstrate that seawall and river embankment greatly reduce the flooding risk and prevent the low-land area from inundation for most tropic storm events, e.g., for extreme events less than 20 to 50 years, in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China. However, the seawall and river embankment may also cause catastrophic disasters once there is an engineering failure of seawalls and river embankment, especially once encountering with an extreme typhoon event, e.g., the 1969 super typhoon Viola in Shantou China and the 2005 hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, USA.

Tsallis non-extensive statistical mechanics in the ionospheric detrended total electron content during quiet and storm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunsua, B. O.; Laoye, J. A.

2018-05-01

In this paper, the Tsallis non-extensive q-statistics in ionospheric dynamics was investigated using the total electron content (TEC) obtained from two Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver stations. This investigation was carried out considering the geomagnetically quiet and storm periods. The micro density variation of the ionospheric total electron content was extracted from the TEC data by method of detrending. The detrended total electron content, which represent the variation in the internal dynamics of the system was further analyzed using for non-extensive statistical mechanics using the q-Gaussian methods. Our results reveals that for all the analyzed data sets the Tsallis Gaussian probability distribution (q-Gaussian) with value q > 1 were obtained. It was observed that there is no distinct difference in pattern between the values of qquiet and qstorm. However the values of q varies with geophysical conditions and possibly with local dynamics for the two stations. Also observed are the asymmetric pattern of the q-Gaussian and a highly significant level of correlation for the q-index values obtained for the storm periods compared to the quiet periods between the two GPS receiver stations where the TEC was measured. The factors responsible for this variation can be mostly attributed to the varying mechanisms resulting in the self-reorganization of the system dynamics during the storm periods. The result shows the existence of long range correlation for both quiet and storm periods for the two stations.

Characteristics of the most intense lightning storm ever recorded at the CN Tower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hussein, A. M.; Kazazi, S.; Anwar, M.; Yusouf, M.; Liatos, P.

2017-02-01

Lightning strikes to the CN Tower have been optically observed since 1978. In 1990, five independent systems started to operate to simultaneously record parameters of lightning strikes to the tower, including the time derivative of the current, the associated electric and magnetic fields, and the channel optical characteristics. On August 24, 2011, during an unusually severe lightning storm, video records showed that the CN Tower was struck with 52 lightning flashes within 84 min and 6.9 s. Thus, this storm produced, on average, a flash to the tower every 99 s. However, the CN Tower lightning current derivative measurement system only recorded 32 flashes, which were perfectly time-matched with 32 of the 52 video-recorded flashes. It is found that the current derivative measurement system recorded every video-recorded flash that contained at least one return stroke. Based on the analysis of video records, it is noted that each of the storm's 52 flashes contains an initial-stage current, proving that all flashes were upward initiated. This unique CN Tower storm - the most intense ever recorded at the tower - is here thoroughly analyzed, based on video and current records. The inter-flash time within the storm is found to vary between 10.6 s and 274 s, with an overall average of 98 s. It is also found that the inter-flash time between successive non-return-stroke flashes is on average 64% longer than that for successive flashes containing return strokes. Statistical analysis of video and current data clearly reveals that the time duration of flashes containing initial-stage currents and return strokes is on average 27% longer than that of flashes that only have initial-stage currents. Furthermore, it is important to note that the time duration of the initial-stage current in flashes containing no return strokes is on average 76% longer than that in flashes containing return strokes. Therefore, it is possible to conclude that if the time duration of the initial-stage current in a flash is long enough, resulting in large charge transfer, then there is less probability of having return strokes following it. The 32 current-recorded flashes contain a total of 156 return strokes, with an average multiplicity of 4.875. It is worth mentioning that during one decade, 1992-2001, the CN Tower current derivative measurement system only recorded 478 return strokes, demonstrating that the number of return strokes recorded at the tower within about 84 min is close to one third of those recorded at the tower during one decade. This finding clearly shows the great value and rarity of the presented extensive lightning current derivative data. Only one of the 32 current-recorded flashes is proved to be positive with a single return stroke. Based on current records, out of a total of 124 inter-stroke time intervals, 94% are found to be within 200 ms, with an overall inter-stroke time average of 68.1 ms. The maximum inter-stroke time recorded during this storm is 726.3 ms, the longest ever recorded at the CN Tower.

7 CFR 1924.108 - Grading and drainage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... exposed for long periods during construction. (d) Storm water systems. The design of storm water systems... basin level. Storm water systems should be compatible with the natural features of the site. In areas with inadequate drainage systems, permanent or temporary storm water storage shall be an integral part...

7 CFR 1924.108 - Grading and drainage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... exposed for long periods during construction. (d) Storm water systems. The design of storm water systems... basin level. Storm water systems should be compatible with the natural features of the site. In areas with inadequate drainage systems, permanent or temporary storm water storage shall be an integral part...

7 CFR 1924.108 - Grading and drainage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... exposed for long periods during construction. (d) Storm water systems. The design of storm water systems... basin level. Storm water systems should be compatible with the natural features of the site. In areas with inadequate drainage systems, permanent or temporary storm water storage shall be an integral part...

7 CFR 1924.108 - Grading and drainage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... exposed for long periods during construction. (d) Storm water systems. The design of storm water systems... basin level. Storm water systems should be compatible with the natural features of the site. In areas with inadequate drainage systems, permanent or temporary storm water storage shall be an integral part...

7 CFR 1924.108 - Grading and drainage.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... exposed for long periods during construction. (d) Storm water systems. The design of storm water systems... basin level. Storm water systems should be compatible with the natural features of the site. In areas with inadequate drainage systems, permanent or temporary storm water storage shall be an integral part...

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orton, P.; Conticello, F.; Cioffi, F.; Hall, T.; Georgas, N.; Lall, U.; Blumberg, A.

2015-01-01

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Improving runoff risk estimates: Formulating runoff as a bivariate process using the SCS curve number method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, Stephen B.; Walter, M. Todd

2009-03-01

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method is widely used to predict storm runoff for hydraulic design purposes, such as sizing culverts and detention basins. As traditionally used, the probability of calculated runoff is equated to the probability of the causative rainfall event, an assumption that fails to account for the influence of variations in soil moisture on runoff generation. We propose a modification to the SCS-CN method that explicitly incorporates rainfall return periods and the frequency of different soil moisture states to quantify storm runoff risks. Soil moisture status is assumed to be correlated to stream base flow. Fundamentally, this approach treats runoff as the outcome of a bivariate process instead of dictating a 1:1 relationship between causative rainfall and resulting runoff volumes. Using data from the Fall Creek watershed in western New York and the headwaters of the French Broad River in the mountains of North Carolina, we show that our modified SCS-CN method improves frequency discharge predictions in medium-sized watersheds in the eastern United States in comparison to the traditional application of the method.

Predicting Impacts of tropical cyclones and sea-Level rise on beach mouse habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Wang, Lixia; Tawes, Robert; Rollman, Drew

2014-01-01

Alabama beach mouse (ABM) (Peromyscus polionotus ammobates) is an important component of the coastal dune ecosystem along the Gulf of Mexico. Due to habitat loss and degradation, ABM is federally listed as an endangered species. In this study, we examined the impacts of storm surge and wind waves, which are induced by hurricanes and sea-level rise (SLR), on the ABM habitat on Fort Morgan Peninsula, Alabama, using advanced storm surge and wind wave models and spatial analysis tools in geographic information systems (GIS). Statistical analyses of the long-term historical data enabled us to predict the extreme values of winds, wind waves, and water levels in the study area at different return periods. We developed a series of nested domains for both wave and surge modeling and validated the models using field observations of surge hydrographs and high watermarks of Hurricane Ivan (2004). We then developed wave atlases and flood maps corresponding to the extreme wind, surge and waves without SLR and with a 0.5 m of SLR by coupling the wave and surge prediction models. The flood maps were then merged with a map of ABM habitat to determine the extent and location of habitat impacted by the 100-year storm with and without SLR. Simulation results indicate that more than 82% of ABM habitat would be inundated in such an extreme storm event, especially under SLR, making ABM populations more vulnerable to future storm damage. These results have aided biologists, community planners, and other stakeholders in the identification, restoration and protection of key beach mouse habitat in Alabama. Methods outlined in this paper could also be used to assist in the conservation and recovery of imperiled coastal species elsewhere.

Exploring the Recurrence of Contributing Area Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spence, C.; Mengistu, S. G.

2015-12-01

Recent years have witnessed a progression towards using models as a tool for predicting high frequency contributing area dynamics in catchments. High frequency contributing area modeling can become a viable alternative to the current approach for estimating contributing area in Canadian catchments, which assumes a static portion of the catchment's gross drainage area. The current approach does not consider the spatiotemporal variability of contributing area dynamics, and therefore, represents an important challenge for characterizing the recurrence that saturated areas in the catchment can actively connect and contribute to the main channel in response to runoff producing snowmelt or storm events. Such characterizations are useful to assess the relative importance of different areas within a catchment for runoff generation, and nutrient production and transport. In this study, the PDMROF configuration of Environment Canada's MESH model has been applied to simulate areas actively contributing to daily streamflow from four nested catchments of the Qu'Appelle River basin. The return periods of annual maximum contributing areas were computed using Weibull's equation. The research also evaluates if runoff magnitude is always associated with the same extent and recurrence of contributing area and investigates how contributing area and streamflow return periods relate. This work provides the foundation for evaluating the effect of environmental changes (mainly land use and climate associated changes) on contributing area recurrence by conducting similar investigations under various environmental change scenarios.

Relationships between blood mercury levels, reproduction, and return rate in a small seabird.

PubMed

Pollet, Ingrid L; Leonard, Marty L; O'Driscoll, Nelson J; Burgess, Neil M; Shutler, Dave

2017-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a ubiquitous heavy metal that occurs naturally in the environment, but its levels have been supplemented for decades by a variety of human activities. Mercury can have serious deleterious effects on a variety of organisms, with top predators being particularly susceptible because methylmercury bioaccumulates and biomagnifies in food webs. Among birds, seabirds can have especially high levels of Hg contamination and Leach's storm-petrels (Oceanodroma leucorhoa), in particular, have amongst the highest known levels. Several populations of Leach's storm-petrels have declined recently in the Northwest Atlantic. The causes of these declines remain uncertain, but the toxic effects of Hg could be a potential factor in this decline. Here, we tested for relationships between adult blood total Hg (THg) concentration and several offspring development parameters, and adult return rate of Leach's storm-petrels breeding on Bon Portage Island (43° 28' N, 65° 44' W), Nova Scotia, Canada, between 2011 and 2015 (blood samples n = 20, 36, 6, 15, and 13 for each year, respectively). Overall, THg levels were elevated (0.78 ± 0.43 μg/g wet wt.) compared to other species of seabirds in this region, and varied significantly among years. However, we found no associations between THg levels and reproductive parameters or adult return rate. Our results indicate that levels of mercury observed in Leach's storm-petrel blood, although elevated, appear not to adversely affect their offspring development or adult return rate on Bon Portage Island.

Impacts of Non-Stationarity in Climate on Flood Intensity-Duration-Frequency: Case Studies in Mountainous Areas with Snowmelt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hou, Z.; Ren, H.; Sun, N.; Leung, L. R.; Liu, Y.; Coleman, A. M.; Skaggs, R.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic engineering design usually involves intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) analysis for calculating runoff from a design storm of specified precipitation frequency and duration using event-based hydrologic rainfall-runoff models. Traditionally, the procedure assumes climate stationarity and neglects snowmelt-driven runoff contribution to floods. In this study, we used high resolution climate simulations to provide inputs to the physics-based Distributed Hydrology Soil and Vegetation Model (DHSVM) to determine the spatially distributed precipitation and snowmelt available for runoff. Climate model outputs were extracted around different mountainous field sites in Colorado and California. IDF curves were generated at each numerical grid of DHSVM based on the simulated precipitation, temperature, and available water for runoff. Quantitative evaluation of trending and stationarity tests were conducted to identify (quasi-)stationary time periods for reliable IDF analysis. The impact of stationarity was evaluated by comparing the derived IDF attributes with respect to time windows of different length and level of stationarity. Spatial mapping of event return-period was performed for various design storms, and spatial mapping of event intensity was performed for given duration and return periods. IDF characteristics were systematically compared (historical vs RCP4.5 vs RCP8.5) using annual maximum series vs partial duration series data with the goal of providing reliable IDF analyses to support hydrologic engineering design.

Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

2013-04-01

The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the use of historical information (to the Brest tide gauge located in the French Atlantic coast). In addition, the present work contributes to addressing the problem of the presence of outliers in data sets. Historical data are generally imprecise, and their inaccuracy should be properly accounted for in the analysis. However, as several authors believe, even with substantial uncertainty in the data, the use of historical information is a viable mean to improve estimates of rare events related to extreme environmental conditions. The preliminary results of this study suggest that the use of historical information increases the representativity of an outlier in the systematic data. It is also shown that the use of historical information, specifically the perception sea water level, can be considered as a reliable solution for the optimal planning and design of facilities to withstand extreme environmental conditions, which will occur during its lifetime, with an appropriate optimum of risk level. Findings are of practical relevance for applications in storm surge risk analysis and flood management.

The Avalanche Catastrophe of El Teniente-chile: August 8 of 1944.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, J.; Baros, M.

The avalanche of El Teniente-Chile (~34S) August 8 of 1944, was the most serious avalanche accident in Chile of the last 100 years. On the night of August 8, 1944, a major avalanche impacted a The Sewell, a worked village of the Copper Mine of El Teniente, there were 102 fatalities, 8 building, one school and one bridged de- stroyed. Due to a storm over the central part of Chile where intense precipitation fall over the Andes mountains during nine days. Historical precipitation records near to Sewell shows that total rainfall during the storms was 299mm (La Rufina) and 349mm (Bullileo), and the day before of avalanche the 24 hours rain intensity was 93mm. The Weilbull statistical analysis of monthly snowfall (water equivalent) record in Sewell from 1912-2001 show that the total August 1944 snowfall (621mm) was the larger of the all historical records and the return period is close one events in 180 years, and the annual snowfall during 1944 was 1140mm and return periods was 3.8 years. KEYWRODS: Chile, Avalanches, Andes Mountains, Avalanche Disaster, Historical Snow Records.

Use of inpatient psychiatric services on a U.S. Army combat support post during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm: the stress of non-deployment.

PubMed

Koshes, R J; Rothberg, J M

1994-06-01

We studied the utilization of inpatient psychiatric services during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm (the Persian Gulf War of 1990-1991) on a U.S. Army combat support post. Inpatient psychiatric admissions and dispositions for the post's catchment area were tallied before, during, and after Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. Subjects included active duty soldiers (deployed soldiers were not studied while they were away from the post), their families, and retirees. Overall, there was no increase in psychiatric hospitalizations for active duty soldiers, their family members, or retirees. However, coincident with the return of soldiers from Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm, the psychiatric proportion of all hospitalizations increased in the subpopulation of soldiers not deployed who had served less than 1 year. These soldiers in training may be more susceptible to increased stress levels associated with the return of soldiers from war because of their inadequate group bonding.

Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas.

PubMed

Groen, Jeffrey A; Polivka, Anne E

2010-11-01

This article examines the decision of Hurricane Katrina evacuees to return to their pre-Katrina areas and documents how the composition of the Katrina-affected region changed over time. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we show that an evacuee's age, family income, and the severity of damage in an evacuee's county of origin are important determinants of whether an evacuee returned during the first year after the storm. Blacks were less likely to return than whites, but this difference is primarily related to the geographical pattern of storm damage rather than to race per se. The difference between the composition of evacuees who returned and the composition of evacuees who did not return is the primary force behind changes in the composition of the affected areas in the first two years after the storm. Katrina is associated with substantial shifts in the racial composition of the affected areas (namely, a decrease in the percentage of residents who are black) and an increasing presence of Hispanics. Katrina is also associated with an increase in the percentage of older residents, a decrease in the percentage of residents with low income/education, and an increase in the percentage of residents with high income/education.

Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100.

PubMed

Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2016-10-25

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

A storm severity index based on return levels of wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Nissen, Katrin M.; Ulbrich, Uwe

2015-04-01

European windstorms related to extra-tropical cyclones cause considerable damages to infrastructure during the winter season. Leckebusch et al. (2008) introduced a storm severity index (SSI) based on the exceedances of the local 98th percentile of wind speeds. The SSI is based on the assumption that (insured) damage usually occurs within the upper 2%-quantile of the local wind speed distribution (i.e. if the 98th percentile is exceeded). However, critical infrastructure, for example related to the power network or the transportation system, is usually designed to withstand wind speeds reaching the local 50-year return level, which is much higher than the 98th percentile. The aim of this work is to use the 50-year return level to develop a modified SSI, which takes into account only extreme wind speeds relevant to critical infrastructure. As a first step we use the block maxima approach to estimate the spatial distribution of return levels by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the wind speeds retrieved from different reanalysis products. We show that the spatial distributions of the 50-year return levels derived from different reanalyses agree well within large parts of Europe. The differences between the reanalyses are largely within the range of the uncertainty intervals of the estimated return levels. As a second step the exceedances of the 50-year return level are evaluated and compared to the exceedances of the 98th percentiles for different extreme European windstorms. The areas where the wind speeds exceed the 50-year return level in the reanalysis data do largely agree with the areas where the largest damages were reported, e.g. France in the case of "Lothar" and "Martin" and Central Europe in the case of "Kyrill". Leckebusch, G. C., Renggli, D., & Ulbrich, U. (2008). Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17(5), 575-587.

Storm phase-partitioned rates and budgets of global Alfvénic energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatch, Spencer M.; LaBelle, James; Chaston, Christopher C.

2018-01-01

We review the role of Alfvén waves in magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling during geomagnetically active periods, and use three years of high-latitude FAST satellite observations of inertial Alfvén waves (IAWs) together with 55 years of tabulated measurements of the Dst index to answer the following questions: 1) How do global rates of IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow during storm main phase and storm recovery phase compare with global rates during geomagnetically quiet periods? 2) What fraction of net IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow is associated with storm main phase and storm recovery phase; that is, how are these budgets partitioned by storm phase? We find that during the period between October 1996 and November 1999, rates of IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow during geomagnetically quiet periods are increased by factors of 4-5 during storm phases. We also find that ∼62-68% of the net Alfvénic energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow in the auroral ionosphere occurred during storm main and recovery phases, despite storm phases comprising only 31% of this period. In particular storm main phase, which comprised less than 14% of the three-year period, was associated with roughly a third of the total Alfvénic energy input and ion outflow in the auroral ionosphere. Measures of geomagnetic activity during the IAW study period fall near corresponding 55-year median values, from which we conclude that each storm phase is associated with a fraction of total Alfvénic energy, precipitation, and outflow budgets in the auroral ionosphere that is, in the long term, probably as great or greater than the fraction associated with geomagnetic quiescence for all times except possibly those when geomagnetic activity is protractedly weak, such as solar minimum. These results suggest that the budgets of IAW-related energy deposition, electron precipitation, and ion outflow are roughly equally partitioned by geomagnetic storm phase.

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.

2017-01-01

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

Arecibo weathers the storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera-Valentín, Edgard G.; Schmelz, Joan T.

2018-04-01

Hurricane Maria was 2 mph short of category 5 when it made landfall on Puerto Rico on 20 September 2017. The 305 m radio telescope at the Arecibo Observatory withstood the storm, suffering only minor structural damage. Staff have worked diligently to return the site to full operations and provide vital services to the surrounding Puerto Rican community.

Sele coastal plain flood risk due to wave storm and river flow interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benassai, Guido; Aucelli, Pietro; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Della Morte, Renata; Cozzolino, Luca; Rizzo, Angela

2016-04-01

Wind waves, elevated water levels and river discharge can cause flooding in low-lying coastal areas, where the water level is the interaction between wave storm elevated water levels and river flow interaction. The factors driving the potential flood risk include weather conditions, river water stage and storm surge. These data are required to obtain inputs to run the hydrological model used to evaluate the water surface level during ordinary and extreme events regarding both the fluvial overflow and storm surge at the river mouth. In this paper we studied the interaction between the sea level variation and the river hydraulics in order to assess the location of the river floods in the Sele coastal plain. The wave data were acquired from the wave buoy of Ponza, while the water level data needed to assess the sea level variation were recorded by the tide gauge of Salerno. The water stages, river discharges and rating curves for Sele river were provided by Italian Hydrographic Service (Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale, SIMN).We used the dataset of Albanella station (40°29'34.30"N, 15°00'44.30"E), located around 7 km from the river mouth. The extreme river discharges were evaluated through the Weibull equation, which were associated with their return period (TR). The steady state river water levels were evaluated through HEC-RAS 4.0 model, developed by Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) of the United States Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center (USACE,2006). It is a well-known 1D model that computes water surface elevation (WSE) and velocity at discrete cross-sections by solving continuity, energy and flow resistance (e.g., Manning) equation. Data requirements for HEC-RAS include topographic information in the form of a series of cross-sections, friction parameter in the form of Manning's n values across each cross-section, and flow data including flow rates, flow change locations, and boundary conditions. For a steady state sub-critical simulation, the boundary condition is a known downstream WSE, in this case the elevated water level due to wave setup, wind setup and inverted barometer, while the upstream boundary condition consisted in WSE corresponding to river discharges associated to different return periods. The results of the simulations evidence, for the last 10 kilometers of the river, the burst of critical inundation scenarios even with moderate flow discharge, if associated with concurrent storm surge which increase the water level at the river mouth, obstructing normal flow discharge.

Modeling urban flood risk territories for Riga city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piliksere, A.; Sennikovs, J.; Virbulis, J.; Bethers, U.; Bethers, P.; Valainis, A.

2012-04-01

Riga, the capital of Latvia, is located on River Daugava at the Gulf of Riga. The main flooding risks of Riga city are: (1) storm caused water setup in South part of Gulf of Riga (storm event), (2) water level increase caused by Daugava River discharge maximums (spring snow melting event) and (3) strong rainfall or rapid snow melting in densely populated urban areas. The first two flooding factors were discussed previously (Piliksere et al, 2011). The aims of the study were (1) the identification of the flood risk situations in densely populated areas, (2) the quantification of the flooding scenarios caused by rain and snow melting events of different return periods nowadays, in the near future (2021-2050), far future (2071-2100) taking into account the projections of climate change, (3) estimation of groundwater level for Riga city, (4) the building and calibration of the hydrological mathematical model based on SWMM (EPA, 2004) for the domain potentially vulnerable for rain and snow melt flooding events, (5) the calculation of rain and snow melting flood events with different return periods, (6) mapping the potentially flooded areas on a fine grid. The time series of short term precipitation events during warm time period of year (id est. rain events) were analyzed for 35 year long time period. Annual maxima of precipitation intensity for events with different duration (5 min; 15 min; 1h; 3h; 6h; 12h; 1 day; 2 days; 4 days; 10 days) were calculated. The time series of long term simultaneous precipitation data and observations of the reduction of thickness of snow cover were analyzed for 27 year long time period. Snow thawing periods were detected and maximum of snow melting intensity for events with different intensity (1day; 2 days; 4 days; 7 days; 10 days) were calculated. According to the occurrence probability six scenarios for each event for nowadays, near and far future with return period once in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 years were constructed based on the Gumbell extreme value analysis. The hydrological modelling driven by the temperature and precipitation data series from regional climate models were used for evaluation of rain event maximums in the future periods. The usage of the climate model data in hydrological models causes systematic errors; therefore the bias correction method (Sennikovs, Bethers, 2009) was applied for determination of the future rainfall intensities. SWMM model was built for the urban area. Objects of hydraulic importance (manifold, penstock, ditch, pumping station, weir, well, catchment sub-basin etc.) were included in the model. There exist pure rain sewage system and mixed rain-water/household sewage system in Riga. Sewage system with wastewater load proportional to population density was taken account and calibrated. Model system was calibrated for a real rain event against the water flux time series into sewage treatment plant of Riga. High resolution (~1.5 points per square meter) digital terrain map was used as the base for finite element mesh for the geospatial mapping of results of hydraulic calculations. Main results of study are (1) detection of the hot spots of densely populated urban areas; (2) identification of the weak chains of the melioration and sewage systems; (3) mapping the elevation of ground water mainly caused by snow melting. A.Piliksere, A.Valainis, J.Seņņikovs, (2011), A flood risk assessment for Riga city taking account climate changes, EGU, Vienna, Austria. EPA, (2004), Storm water management model. User's manual version 5.0. US Environmental Protection Agency J.Sennikovs, U.Bethers, (2009), Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modelling. 18th World IMACS/MODSIM Congress, Cairns, Australia.

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. PMID:24806527

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

PubMed Central

Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. PMID:27790992

Climate change adaptation accounting for huge uncertainties in future projections - the case of urban drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2015-04-01

Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our case study), following the approach proposed by Ntegeka et al. (2014). When the consequences of given scenarios are high, they should be taken into account in the decision making process. For the Flanders' guidelines, it was agreed among the members of the regional Coordination Commission Integrated Water Management to consider (in addition to the traditional range of return periods up to 5 years) a 20-year design storm for scenario investigation. It was motivated by the outcome of this study that under the high climate scenario a 20-year storm would become - in order of magnitude - a 5-year storm. If after a design for a 5-year storm, the 20-year scenario investigation would conclude that specific zones along the sewer system would have severe additional impacts, it is recommended to apply changes to the system or to design flexible adaptation measures for the future (depending on which of the options would be most cost-efficient). Another adaptation action agreed was the installation of storm water infiltration devices at private houses and make these mandatory for new and renovated houses. Such installation was found to be cost-effective in any of the climate scenario's. This is one way of dealing with climate uncertainties, but lessons learned from other cases/applications are highly welcomed. References Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P. (2014), 'Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments', Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Willems, P. (2013). 'Revision of urban drainage design rules after assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation extremes at Uccle, Belgium', Journal of Hydrology, 496, 166-177 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118

Evaluation of coastal vulnerability: comparison of two different methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Perini, Luisa; Calabrese, Lorenzo; Ciavola, Paolo; Salerno, Giovanni

2014-05-01

In the last years a large number of catastrophic events have occurred along worldwide coastlines (e.g.: 2012 Super-storm Sandy, US East Coast). European countries have to face similar calamities such as those caused by the recent Xaver cyclone (December 2013). The Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, along the North Adriatic Sea, is affected by storms that cause extensive damages. The coast has low elevations, is highly urbanised and there is a massive presence of defence structures. The area is micro-tidal (neap/spring tide ranges = 0.4/0.8 m), low energetic (65% Hs<=1 m) but subjected to significant surge levels (1 year return period = 0.85 m). Therefore an evaluation of the vulnerability of the coastal area is an urgent matter. The Regional Geological Survey has completed an analysis of three scenarios of damage produced by the concurrent happening of a marine storm and high surge levels (1-in-1, 10, 100 year return period) and high spring tidal levels (+0.45 m MSL). Wave heights were used to calculate run-up values along the whole coastline (on 187 equally spaced profiles extracted from LIDAR datasets). The result is a list of ten typology of different levels of damage obtained through the comparison between the computed water levels, for each scenario and along each profile, and the topography/human occupation of the coast. The assessment reveals that 60% of the coastline is vulnerable to the 1-in-1 year return period scenario, thus even modal meteorological conditions can generate significant losses. A comparison was made between the produced typologies and the actual damage caused by a recent storm and the correspondence is almost identical, underlining that the method is reliable. Because the above-mentioned methodology is only punctual, the Geological Survey has started a different evaluation of the areal extension of inundations. The methodology considers the concurrent happening of the same return period storms but in terms of wave set-up only (not including run-up) plus surge levels (extracted from the literature) plus high spring tide level. To find the extension of inundated areas and the intrusion distance of marine water inland, the Cost-Distance tool of ArcGIS was used. The tool is able to evaluate the contribution of each "cell", in which the coast has been divided (from LIDAR data), to avoid or favour the water movement inland, considering its location with respect to the shoreline, its elevation above MSL and the elevation/location of nearby cells. It does not account for water infiltration and terrain roughness, therefore, to avoid getting unrealistic results, an attenuation artifice was introduced: the maximum water level surface, calculated for each return period, is projected inland following a sloping plane. The intrusion distance is determined by the intersection of the oblique water surface and the ground. This artifice, together with the Cost-Distance tool, produces consistent results if compared to observed inundations with similar return periods. A further implementation of coastal vulnerability assessment will be performed through numerical modelling and Bayesian approaches (RISC-KIT EU Project, www.risckit.eu, GA 603458).

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Nel, Jeanne L; Le Maitre, David C; Nel, Deon C; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W; Forsyth, Greg G; Theron, Andre K; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

Severe wind gust thresholds for Meteoalarm derived from uniform return periods in ECA&D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepek, A.; Wijnant, I. L.; van der Schrier, G.; van den Besselaar, E. J. M.; Klein Tank, A. M. G.

2012-06-01

In this study we present an alternative wind gust warning guideline for Meteoalarm, the severe weather warning website for Europe. There are unrealistically large differences in levels and issuing frequencies of all warning levels currently in use between neighbouring Meteoalarm countries. This study provides a guide for the Meteoalarm community to review their wind gust warning thresholds. A more uniform warning system is achieved by using one pan-European return period per warning level. The associated return values will be different throughout Europe because they depend on local climate conditions, but they will not change abruptly at country borders as is currently the case for the thresholds. As return values are a measure of the possible danger of an event and its impact on society, they form an ideal basis for a warning system. Validated wind gust measurements from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D, http://www.ecad.eu) were used to calculate return values of the annual maximum wind gust. The current thresholds are compared with return values for 3 different return periods: 10 times a year return periods for yellow warnings, 2 yr periods for orange and 5 yr periods for red warnings. So far 10 countries provide wind gust data to ECA&D. Due to the ECA&D completeness requirements and the fact that some countries provided too few stations to be representative for that country, medians of the return values of annual maximum wind gust could be calculated for 6 of the 10 countries. Alternative guideline thresholds are presented for Norway, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany, the Czech Republic and Spain and the need to distinguish between coastal, inland and mountainous regions is demonstrated. The new thresholds based on uniform return periods differ significantly from the current ones, particularly for coastal and mountainous areas. We are aware of other, sometimes binding factors (e.g. laws) that prevent participating counties from implementing this climatology based warning system.

Variations in return value estimate of ocean surface waves - a study based on measured buoy data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muhammed Naseef, T.; Sanil Kumar, V.

2017-10-01

An assessment of extreme wave characteristics during the design of marine facilities not only helps to ensure their safety but also assess the economic aspects. In this study, return levels of significant wave height (Hs) for different periods are estimated using the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) based on the Waverider buoy data spanning 8 years and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data spanning 38 years. The analysis is carried out for wind-sea, swell and total Hs separately for buoy data. Seasonality of the prevailing wave climate is also considered in the analysis to provide return levels for short-term activities in the location. The study shows that the initial distribution method (IDM) underestimates return levels compared to GPD. The maximum return levels estimated by the GPD corresponding to 100 years are 5.10 m for the monsoon season (JJAS), 2.66 m for the pre-monsoon season (FMAM) and 4.28 m for the post-monsoon season (ONDJ). The intercomparison of return levels by block maxima (annual, seasonal and monthly maxima) and the r-largest method for GEV theory shows that the maximum return level for 100 years is 7.20 m in the r-largest series followed by monthly maxima (6.02 m) and annual maxima (AM) (5.66 m) series. The analysis is also carried out to understand the sensitivity of the number of observations for the GEV annual maxima estimates. It indicates that the variations in the standard deviation of the series caused by changes in the number of observations are positively correlated with the return level estimates. The 100-year return level results of Hs using the GEV method are comparable for short-term (2008 to 2016) buoy data (4.18 m) and long-term (1979 to 2016) ERA-Interim shallow data (4.39 m). The 6 h interval data tend to miss high values of Hs, and hence there is a significant difference in the 100-year return level Hs obtained using 6 h interval data compared to data at 0.5 h interval. The study shows that a single storm can cause a large difference in the 100-year Hs value.

Spatial comparability of drought characteristics and related return periods in mainland China over 1961-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayantobo, Olusola O.; Li, Yi; Song, Songbai; Yao, Ning

2017-07-01

The proper understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics of multi-year droughts and return periods is important for drought risk assessment. This study evaluated and compared the spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics and return periods within mainland China between 1961 and 2013. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Composite Index (CI) were calculated at multiple timescales, the run theory was used for objective identification and characterization of drought events while Kendall's τ method was used to analyze their dependencies. Within the univariate framework, marginal distributions of duration, severity, and peak were derived by fitting Exponential, Weibull and GDP distributions respectively and the drought return periods was investigated and mapped. Comparison of drought indices showed that SPEI and CI performed better than SPI in delineating spatial patterns of drought characteristics. This might be attributed to the temperature effect on evapotranspiration and therefore on drought index. Considering the increasing trend in reference evapotranspiration in the 21st century, the importance of utilizing temperature-based drought index is imperative. Severe and extreme droughts occurred in the late 1990s in many places in China while persistent multi-year severe droughts occurred more frequently over North China, Northeast China, Northwest China and Southwest China. The spatial patterns showed that regions characterized by higher drought severity were associated with higher drought duration. The North China, Northwest China, and Southwest China had much longer drought durations during the 1990s and 2000s. As droughts normally cover large areas, regional drought return periods has been showed to be more effective in providing support for drought management than station based drought return periods. Studies on the spatial comparability of drought return periods across mainland China have therefore been undertaken for drought mitigation and effective utilization of water resources.

The National Shipbuilding Research Program. Strategies and Demonstrations for the Reduction of Government Regulations Related to Commercial Shipbuilding

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

inspecting storm water quality associated with storm water runoff or snowmelt: January through March; April through June: July through September and October...beyond those described in Part V.B. of this permit. 5. Monitoring and Reporting . Requirements Storm Water Quality . Facilities shall perform and document...event. (I) Examinations shall be conducted in each of the following periods for the purposes of visually inspecting storm water quality associated

A soil water budget model for precipitation-induced shallow landslides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Hsin-Fu; Lee, Cheng-Haw

2013-04-01

Precipitation infiltration influences both the quantity and quality of slope systems. Knowledge of the mechanisms leading to precipitation-induced slope failures is of great importance to the management of landslide hazard. In this study, a soil water balance model is developed to estimate soil water flux during the process of infiltration from rainfall data, with consideration of storm periods and non-storm periods. Two important assumptions in this study are given: (1) instantaneous uniform distribution of the degree of effective saturation and (2) a linear relationship between evapotranspiration and the related degree of saturation degree. For storm periods, the Brooks and Corey model estimates both the soil water retention curve (SWRC) and soil water parameters. The infiltration partition is employed by an infinite-series solution of Philip in conjunction with the time compression approximation (TCA). For none-storm periods, evapotranspiration can be derived for the moisture depletion of soil water. This study presents a procedure for calculating the safety factor for an unsaturated slope suffering from precipitation infiltration. The process of infiltration into a slope due to rainfall and its effect on soil slope behavior are examined using modified Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion in conjunction with a soil water balance model. The results indicate that the matric suction, which is closely related to slope stability, is affected by the effective degree of saturation controlled by rainfall events.

New Insights into the Estimation of Extreme Geomagnetic Storm Occurrences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffenach, Alexis; Winter, Hugo; Lavraud, Benoit; Bernardara, Pietro

2017-04-01

Space weather events such as intense geomagnetic storms are major disturbances of the near-Earth environment that may lead to serious impacts on our modern society. As such, it is of great importance to estimate their probability, and in particular that of extreme events. One approach largely used in statistical sciences for extreme events probability estimates is Extreme Value Analysis (EVA). Using this rigorous statistical framework, estimations of the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms are performed here based on the most relevant global parameters related to geomagnetic storms, such as ground parameters (e.g. geomagnetic Dst and aa indexes), and space parameters related to the characteristics of Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) (velocity, southward magnetic field component, electric field). Using our fitted model, we estimate the annual probability of a Carrington-type event (Dst = -850nT) to be on the order of 10-3, with a lower limit of the uncertainties on the return period of ˜500 years. Our estimate is significantly higher than that of most past studies, which typically had a return period of a few 100 years at maximum. Thus precautions are required when extrapolating intense values. Currently, the complexity of the processes and the length of available data inevitably leads to significant uncertainties in return period estimates for the occurrence of extreme geomagnetic storms. However, our application of extreme value models for extrapolating into the tail of the distribution provides a mathematically justified framework for the estimation of extreme return periods, thereby enabling the determination of more accurate estimates and reduced associated uncertainties.

A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

PubMed

Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M

2018-03-12

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Return of salmon-derived nutrients from the riparian zone to the stream during a storm in southeastern Alaska

Treesearch

Jason B. Fellman; Eran Hood; Rick T. Edwards; David V. D' Amore

2008-01-01

Spawning salmon deliver nutrients (salmon-derived nutrients, SDN) to natal watersheds that can be incorporated into terrestrial and aquatic food webs, potentially increasing ecosystem productivity. Peterson Creek, a coastal watershed in southeast Alaska that supports several species of anadromous fish, was sampled over the course of a storm during September 2006 to...

Idaho storm warning system operational test

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The Storm Warning Project was initiated in 1993 as a result of a large number of serious traffic crashes that occurred during periods of low visibility on I-84 in southeastern Idaho between 1988 and 1993. The purpose of the project was to determine i...

Explanation for Anomalous Readings during Monitoring of a Best Management Practice

EPA Science Inventory

The USEPA's Urban Watershed Management Branch (UWMB) has monitored storm-water drainage and best management practices (BMPs) as part of its overall research program. As part of this effort, continuous monitoring equipment was deployed to measure both storm events and periods bet...

Idaho storm warning system operational test : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-12-01

The Storm Warning Project was initiated in 1993 as a result of a large number of serious traffic crashes that occurred during periods of low visibility on I-84 in southeastern Idaho between 1988 and 1993. The purpose of the project was to determine i...

Mediterranean Environmental Acoustic Summary

DTIC Science & Technology

1974-07-01

by deep extratropical cyclones located in north Italian wate_±rs. 2.1.6.4(U) Storm Surges (U). During extended periods of strong winds, storm surges...Atlantic migratory storms . As exemplified by the region of the Ligurian Sea, most lows develop in the Mediterranean -z secondaries on trailing cold...between the Azores high and desert lows. Storm activity, hence gale occurrence, is at a yearly low during summer. 2.1.3(U) Air Terierature (U). The cli

How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P. J.; de Moel, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

2011-12-01

Flood management is more and more adopting a risk based approach, whereby flood risk is the product of the probability and consequences of flooding. One of the most common approaches in flood risk assessment is to estimate the damage that would occur for floods of several exceedance probabilities (or return periods), to plot these on an exceedance probability-loss curve (risk curve) and to estimate risk as the area under the curve. However, there is little insight into how the selection of the return-periods (which ones and how many) used to calculate risk actually affects the final risk calculation. To gain such insights, we developed and validated an inundation model capable of rapidly simulating inundation extent and depth, and dynamically coupled this to an existing damage model. The method was applied to a section of the River Meuse in the southeast of the Netherlands. Firstly, we estimated risk based on a risk curve using yearly return periods from 2 to 10 000 yr (€ 34 million p.a.). We found that the overall risk is greatly affected by the number of return periods used to construct the risk curve, with over-estimations of annual risk between 33% and 100% when only three return periods are used. In addition, binary assumptions on dike failure can have a large effect (a factor two difference) on risk estimates. Also, the minimum and maximum return period considered in the curve affects the risk estimate considerably. The results suggest that more research is needed to develop relatively simple inundation models that can be used to produce large numbers of inundation maps, complementary to more complex 2-D-3-D hydrodynamic models. It also suggests that research into flood risk could benefit by paying more attention to the damage caused by relatively high probability floods.

Thyroid storm

MedlinePlus

... return the body temperature to normal Monitoring any excess fluid in older people with heart or kidney disease Medicines to manage agitation Vitamins and glucose The final goal of treatment is ...

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haylock, M. R.

2011-10-01

Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mogollón, Beatriz; Frimpong, Emmanuel A.; Hoegh, Andrew B.; Angermeier, Paul

2016-01-01

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m3/s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m3/s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m3/s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m3/s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Does nonstationarity in rainfall require nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency curves?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganguli, Poulomi; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-12-01

In Canada, risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall has risen in recent decades; the most notable recent examples include the July 2013 storm in the Greater Toronto region and the May 2017 flood of the Toronto Islands. We investigate nonstationarity and trends in the short-duration precipitation extremes in selected urbanized locations in Southern Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the potential of nonstationary intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which form an input to civil infrastructural design. Despite apparent signals of nonstationarity in precipitation extremes in all locations, the stationary vs. nonstationary models do not exhibit any significant differences in the design storm intensity, especially for short recurrence intervals (up to 10 years). The signatures of nonstationarity in rainfall extremes do not necessarily imply the use of nonstationary IDFs for design considerations. When comparing the proposed IDFs with current design standards, for return periods (10 years or less) typical for urban drainage design, current design standards require an update of up to 7 %, whereas for longer recurrence intervals (50-100 years), ideal for critical civil infrastructural design, updates ranging between ˜ 2 and 44 % are suggested. We further emphasize that the above findings need re-evaluation in the light of climate change projections since the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation are expected to intensify due to global warming.

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed.

PubMed

Mogollón, Beatriz; Frimpong, Emmanuel A; Hoegh, Andrew B; Angermeier, Paul L

2016-02-01

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (≥20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods ≤10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m(3)/s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m(3)/s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m(3)/s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m(3)/s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis and Comparison on the Flood Simulation in Typical Hilly & Semi-mountainous Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luan, Qinghua; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Jiahong; Fu, Xiaoran; Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jun

2017-12-01

Water-logging and flood are both serious in hilly and semi-mountainous cities of China, but the related research is rare. Lincheng Economic Development Zone (EDZ) in Hebei Province as the typical city was selected and storm water management model (SWMM) was applied for flood simulation in this study. The regional model was constructed through calibrating and verifying the runoff coefficient of different flood processes. Different designed runoff processes in five-year, ten-year and twenty-year return periods in basic scenario and in the low impact development (LID) scenario, respectively, were simulated and compared. The result shows that: LID measures have effect on peak reduction in the study area, but the effectiveness is not significant; the effectiveness of lagging peak time is poor. These simulation results provide decision support for the rational construction of LID in the study area, and provide the references for regional rain flood management.

Applications of flood depth from rapid post-event footprint generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Naomi; Millinship, Ian

2015-04-01

Immediately following large flood events, an indication of the area flooded (i.e. the flood footprint) can be extremely useful for evaluating potential impacts on exposed property and infrastructure. Specifically, such information can help insurance companies estimate overall potential losses, deploy claims adjusters and ultimately assists the timely payment of due compensation to the public. Developing these datasets from remotely sensed products seems like an obvious choice. However, there are a number of important drawbacks which limit their utility in the context of flood risk studies. For example, external agencies have no control over the region that is surveyed, the time at which it is surveyed (which is important as the maximum extent would ideally be captured), and how freely accessible the outputs are. Moreover, the spatial resolution of these datasets can be low, and considerable uncertainties in the flood extents exist where dry surfaces give similar return signals to water. Most importantly of all, flood depths are required to estimate potential damages, but generally cannot be estimated from satellite imagery alone. In response to these problems, we have developed an alternative methodology for developing high-resolution footprints of maximum flood extent which do contain depth information. For a particular event, once reports of heavy rainfall are received, we begin monitoring real-time flow data and extracting peak values across affected areas. Next, using statistical extreme value analyses of historic flow records at the same measured locations, the return periods of the maximum event flow at each gauged location are estimated. These return periods are then interpolated along each river and matched to JBA's high-resolution hazard maps, which already exist for a series of design return periods. The extent and depth of flooding associated with the event flow is extracted from the hazard maps to create a flood footprint. Georeferenced ground, aerial and satellite images are used to establish defence integrity, highlight breach locations and validate our footprint. We have implemented this method to create seven flood footprints, including river flooding in central Europe and coastal flooding associated with Storm Xaver in the UK (both in 2013). The inclusion of depth information allows damages to be simulated and compared to actual damage and resultant loss which become available after the event. In this way, we can evaluate depth-damage functions used in catastrophe models and reduce their associated uncertainty. In further studies, the depth data could be used at an individual property level to calibrate property type specific depth-damage functions.

Hydroclimatic conditions preceding the March 2014 Oso landslide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Henn, Brian; Cao, Qian; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Magirl, Christopher S.; Mass, Clifford; Bower, J. Brent; St. Laurent, Michael; Mao, Yixin; Perica, Sanja

2015-01-01

The 22 March 2014 Oso landslide was one of the deadliest in U.S. history, resulting in 43 fatalities and the destruction of more than 40 structures. We examine synoptic conditions, precipitation records and soil moisture reconstructions in the days, months, and years preceding the landslide. Atmospheric reanalysis shows a period of enhanced moisture transport to the Pacific Northwest beginning on 11 February 2014. The 21- to 42-day periods prior to the landslide had anomalously high precipitation; we estimate that 300-400 mm of precipitation fell at Oso in the 21 days prior to the landslide. Relative only to historical periods ending on 22 March, the return periods of these precipitation accumulations are large (25-88 years). However, relative to the largest accumulations from any time of the year (annual maxima), return periods are more modest (2-6 years). In addition to the 21-42 days prior to the landslide, there is a secondary maximum in the precipitation return periods for the 4 years preceding the landslide. Reconstructed soil moisture was anomalously high prior to the landslide, with a return period that exceeded 40 years about a week before the event.

Surf Zone Properties and On/Offshore Sediment Transport.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-01

and Random Waves," Proceedings, 14th Coastal Engineering Conference, 1974, pp.558-574. Levi - Civita , T., "Determination Rigoreuse des Ondes...on Beach 2-6 Classification of Normal and Storm Beach 23 Profiles by Dean 2-7 Classification of Normal and Storm Beach 24 Profiles by Author 2-8 Two ...the surface and near bottom, return flow near mid-depth before wave breaking. There were considerable laboratory evidences supporting the two -dimen

Coastal flooding hazard assessment on potentially vulnerable coastal sectors at Varna regional coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Andreeva, Nataliya

2017-04-01

Storm induced flooding is one of the most significant threats that the coastal communities face. In the light of the climate change it is expected to gain even more importance. Therefore, the adequate assessment of this hazard could increase the capability of mitigation of environmental, social, and economic impacts. The study was accomplished in the frames of the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT Project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolkit). The hazard assessment was applied on three potentially vulnerable coastal sectors located at the regional coast of Varna, Bulgarian Black Sea coast. The potential "hotspot" candidates were selected during the initial phase of CRAF which evaluated the coastal risks at regional level. The area of interest comprises different coastal types - from natural beaches and rocky cliffs to man modified environments presented by coastal and port defense structures such as the Varna Port breakwater, groynes, jetties and beaches formed by the presence of coastal structures. The assessment of coastal flooding was done using combination of models -XBeach model and LISFLOOD inundation model applied consecutively. The XBeach model was employed to calculate the hazard intensities at the coast up to the berm crest, while LISFLOOD model was used to calculate the intensity and extent of flooding in the hinterland. At the first stage, 75 extreme storm events were simulated using XBeach model run in "non-hydrostatic" mode to obtain series of flood depth, depth-velocity and overtopping discharges at the predefined coastal cross-shore transects. Extreme value analysis was applied to the calculated hazard parameters series in order to determine their probability distribution functions. This is so called response approach, which is focused on the onshore impact rather than on the deep water boundary conditions. It allows calculation of the hazard extremes probability distribution induced by a variety of combinations of waves and surges. The considered return periods were 20, 50 and 100 years. Subsequently, the overtopping volumes corresponding to preferred return periods were fed into LISFLOOD model to calculate the intensity and extent of the hinterland flooding. For the beaches with fast-rising slopes backed by cliffs a combination of XBeach and LISFLOOD output was applied in order to properly map the flood depth and depth-velocity spatial distribution.

Convective rain rates and their evolution during storms in a semiarid climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doneaud, A. A.; Miller, J. R., Jr.; Ionescu-Niscov, S.

1984-01-01

The semiarid climate of the U.S. northern High Plains region has been studied with respect to rain rates and their evolution during summertime convective storms, using radar data from a total of 750 radar echo clusters. Analysis of this data suggests that the average rain rate R among storms is in a first approximation independent of the total rain volume, if the entire storm duration is considered in the averaging process. R primarily depends on the reflectivity threshold considered in calculating the area coverage integrated over the lifetime of the storm. R evolution during storms is analyzed by dividing each storm lifetime into 10 min, 1, 2, and 4 hours, as well as growing and decaying periods. The value of R remained independent of the total rain volume when the growing or decaying periods of storms were considered separately.

Effect of Sampling Period on Flood Frequency Distributions in the Susquehanna Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kargar, M.; Beighley, R. E.

2010-12-01

Flooding is a devastating natural hazard that claims many human lives and significantly impact regional economies each year. Given the magnitude of flooding impacts, significant resources are dedicated to the development of forecasting models for early warning and evacuation planning, construction of flood defenses (levees/dams) to limit flooding, and the design of civil infrastructure (bridges, culverts, storm sewers) to convey flood flows without failing. In all these cases, it is particularly important to understand the potential flooding risk in terms of both recurrence interval (i.e., return period) and magnitude. Flood frequency analysis (FFA) is a form of risk analysis used to extrapolate the return periods of floods beyond the gauged record. The technique involves using observed annual peak flow discharge data to calculate statistical information such as mean values, standard deviations, skewness, and recurrence intervals. Since discharge data for most catchments have been collected for periods of time less than 100 years, the estimation of the design discharge requires a degree of extrapolation. This study focuses on the assessment and modifications of flood frequency based discharges for sites with limited sampling periods. Here, limited sampling period is intended to capture two issues: (1) limited number of observations to adequately capture the flood frequency signal (i.e., minimum number of annual peaks needed) and (2) climate variability (i.e., sampling period contains primarily “wet” or “dry” periods only). Total of 34 gauges (more than 70 years of data) spread throughout the Susquehanna River basin (71,000 sq km) were used to investigate the impact of sampling period on flood frequency distributions. Data subsets ranging from 10 years to the total number of years available were created from the data for each gauging station. To estimate the flood frequency, the Log Pearson Type III distribution was fit to the logarithms of instantaneous annual peak flows following Bulletin 17B guidelines of the U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. The resulting flood frequencies from these subsets were compared to the results from the entire record at each gauge. Based on the analysis, the minimum number of years required to obtain a reasonable flood frequency distribution was determined for each gauge. In addition, a method to adjust flood frequency distribution at a given gauging station with limited data based on other locations with longer periods of records was developed.

Storm Damage Reduction Project Design for Wallops Island, Virginia, Version 1.01

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

69 4.5.2 Dune response...93 6.1.2 Characterization of berm and dune volumes ............................................................. 98 6.1.3 Characterization of...contour. .............................................................. 70 Figure 4-12. Return period for dune crest lowering

On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.

1993-01-01

One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The sensitivity analysis also indicated that the incorporation of basin and rainfall storm scale also greatly influences the distributional shape of the flood frequency curve.

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Classification and evaluation of the documentary-recorded storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty (1392-1910), Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoo, Chulsang; Park, Minkyu; Kim, Hyeon Jun; Choi, Juhee; Sin, Jiye; Jun, Changhyun

2015-01-01

In this study, the analysis of documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty, covering the entire period of 519 years from 1392 to 1910, was carried out. By applying various key words related to storm events, a total of 556 documentary records could be identified. The main objective of this study was to develop rules of classification for the documentary records on the storm events in the Annals of the Choson Dynasty. The results were also compared with the rainfall data of the traditional Korean rain gauge, named Chukwooki, which are available from 1777 to 1910 (about 130 years). The analysis is organized as follows. First, the frequency of the documents, their length, comments about the size of the inundated area, the number of casualties, the number of property losses, and the size of the countermeasures, etc. were considered to determine the magnitude of the events. To this end, rules of classification of the storm events are developed. Cases in which the word 'disaster' was used along with detailed information about the casualties and property damages, were classified as high-level storm events. The high-level storm events were additionally sub-categorized into catastrophic, extreme, and severe events. Second, by applying the developed rules of classification, a total of 326 events were identified as high-level storm events during the 519 years of the Choson Dynasty. Among these high-level storm events, only 19 events were then classified as the catastrophic ones, 106 events as the extreme ones, and 201 events as the severe ones. The mean return period of these storm events was found to be about 30 years for the catastrophic events, 5 years for the extreme events, and 2-3 years for the severe events. Third, the classification results were verified considering the records of the traditional Korean rain gauge; it was found that the catastrophic events are strongly distinguished from other events with a mean total rainfall and a storm duration equal to 439.8 mm and 49.3 h, respectively. The return period of these catastrophic events was also estimated to be in the range 100-500 years.

The role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection in Puerto Morelos (Mexico)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franklin, Gemma L.; Torres-Freyermuth, Alec; Medellin, Gabriela; Allende-Arandia, María Eugenia; Appendini, Christian M.

2018-04-01

Reefs and sand dunes are critical morphological features providing natural coastal protection. Reefs dissipate around 90 % of the incident wave energy through wave breaking, whereas sand dunes provide the final natural barrier against coastal flooding. The storm impact on coastal areas with these features depends on the relative elevation of the extreme water levels with respect to the sand dune morphology. However, despite the importance of barrier reefs and dunes in coastal protection, poor management practices have degraded these ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to coastal flooding. The present study aims to theoretically investigate the role of the reef-dune system in coastal protection under current climatic conditions at Puerto Morelos, located in the Mexican Caribbean Sea, using a widely validated nonlinear non-hydrostatic numerical model (SWASH). Wave hindcast information, tidal level, and a measured beach profile of the reef-dune system in Puerto Morelos are employed to estimate extreme runup and the storm impact scale for current and theoretical scenarios. The numerical results show the importance of including the storm surge when predicting extreme water levels and also show that ecosystem degradation has important implications for coastal protection against storms with return periods of less than 10 years. The latter highlights the importance of conservation of the system as a mitigation measure to decrease coastal vulnerability and infrastructure losses in coastal areas in the short to medium term. Furthermore, the results are used to evaluate the applicability of runup parameterisations for beaches to reef environments. Numerical analysis of runup dynamics suggests that runup parameterisations for reef environments can be improved by including the fore reef slope. Therefore, future research to develop runup parameterisations incorporating reef geometry features (e.g. reef crest elevation, reef lagoon width, fore reef slope) is warranted.

26 CFR 31.6302-0T - Table of contents (temporary).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

..., the entries for § 31.6302-1(e) through (f)(3). (4) De minimis rule. (i) De minimis deposit rules for quarterly and annual return periods beginning or after January 1, 2001. (ii) De minimis deposit rule for quarterly return periods beginning on or after January 1, 2010. (iii) De minimis deposit rule for employers...

Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

2007-12-01

SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

New dust opacity mapping from Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, Terry Z.; Richardson, Mark I.

1993-01-01

Global dust opacity mapping for Mars has been carried forward using the approach described by Martin (1986) for Viking IR Thermal Mapper data. New maps are presented for the period from the beginning of Viking observations, until Ls 210 deg in 1979 (1.36 Mars years). This range includes the second and more extensive planet-encircling dust storm observed by Viking, known as storm 1977b. Improvements in approach result in greater time resolution and smaller noise than in the earlier work. A strong local storm event filled the Hellas basin at Ls 170 deg, prior to the 1977a storm. Dust is retained in equatorial regions following the 1977b storm far longer than in mid-latitudes. Minor dust events appear to raise the opacity in northern high latitudes during northern spring. Additional mapping with high time resolution has been done for the periods of time near the major storm origins in order to search for clues to the mechanism of storm initiation. The first evidence of the start of the 1977b storm is pushed back to Ls 274.2 deg, preceding signs of the storm in images by about 15 hours.

Comparison between the Coastal Impacts of Cyclone Nargis and the Indian Ocean Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Blount, C.

2009-12-01

On 26 December 2004 a great earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.3 occurred off the North tip of Sumatra, Indonesia. The Indian Ocean tsunami claimed 230,000 lives making it the deadliest in recorded history. Less than 4 years later tropical cyclone Nargis (Cat. 4) made landfall in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady delta on 2 May 2008 causing the worst natural disaster in Myanmar’s recorded history. Official death toll estimates exceed 138,000 fatalities making it the 7th deadliest cyclone ever recorded worldwide. The Bay of Bengal counts seven tropical cyclones with death tolls in excess of 100,000 striking India and Bangladesh in the past 425 years, which highlights the difference in return periods between extreme cyclones and tsunamis. Damage estimates at over $10 billion made Nargis the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in the Indian Ocean. Although the two natural disasters are completely different in their generation mechanisms they both share massive coastal inundations as primary damage and death cause. While the damage patterns exhibit similarities the forcing differs. The primary tsunami impact is dominated by the runup of a few main waves washing rapidly ashore and inducing high lateral forces. On the contrary the tropical cyclone storm surge damage is the result of numerous storm waves continuously hitting the flooded structures on the elevated storm tide level. While coastal vegetation such as mangroves may be effective at reducing superimposed storm waves they are limited at reducing storm surge. Unfortunately, mangroves have been significantly cut for charcoal and land use as rice paddies in Myanmar due to rapid population growth and economic reasons, thereby increasing coastal vulnerability and land loss due to erosion (Figure 1). The period of a storm surge is typically an order of magnitude longer than the period of a tsunami resulting in significantly larger inundation distances along coastal plains and river deltas. The storm surge of cyclone Nargis penetrated more than 50 km inland along the Ayeyarwady delta while the maximum inundation of the Indian Ocean tsunami was 7 km at Banda Aceh. The extent of affected coast lines differs with 2 m storm surge thresholds of cyclone Nargis spanning 200 km of coastline, whereas East Africa was severely affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami at 5000 km from the epicenter. The available time window for dissemination of warnings and evacuations are significantly shorter for tsunamis than cyclones. Coastal protection in the Indian Ocean must be approached with community-based planning, education and awareness programs suited for a multi-hazard perspective. Ayeyarwady delta in Myanmar after cyclone Nargis: (a) Deforestation of mangroves for use as charcoal and land use as rice paddies; (b) Drinking water wells scoured in surf zone at Aya highlighting more than 100 m land loss due to coastal erosion.

Geomagnetic Storm Effects at F1 Layer Altitudes in Various Periods of Solar Activity (Irkutsk Station)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnarenko, G. P.; Yakovleva, O. E.; Kuznetsova, G. M.

2018-03-01

The influence of geomagnetic disturbances on electron density Ne at F1 layer altitudes in different conditions of solar activity during the autumnal and vernal seasons of 2003-2015, according to the data from the Irkutsk digital ionospheric station (52° N, 104° E) is examined. Variations of Ne at heights of 150-190 km during the periods of twenty medium-scale and strong geomagnetic storms have been analyzed. At these specified heights, a vernal-autumn asymmetry of geomagnetic storm effects is discovered in all periods of solar activity of 2003-2015: a considerable Ne decrease at a height of 190 km and a weaker effect at lower levels during the autumnal storms. During vernal storms, no significant Ne decrease as compared with quiet conditions was registered over the entire analyzed interval of 150-190 km.

Storm Surge Simulation and Ensemble Forecast for Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Irene, raking the U.S. East Coast during the period of 26-30 August 2011, caused widespread damage estimated at $15.8 billion and was responsible for 49 direct deaths (Avila and Cangialosi, 2011). Although the most severe impact in the northeastern U.S. was catastrophic inland flooding, with its unusually large size, Irene also generated high waves and storm surges and caused moderate to major coastal flooding. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina (NC). Significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay, and moderate and high surges were observed along the coast from New Jersey (NJ) northward. A storm surge of 0.9-1.8 m caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City (NYC) and Long Island, despite the fact that the storm made landfall to the west of NYC with peak winds of no more than tropical storm strength. Making three U.S. landfalls (in NC, NJ, and NY), Hurricane Irene provides a unique case for studying storm surge along the eastern U.S. coastline. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Luettich et al. 1992) to conduct surge simulations for Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay, and NYC, using best track data and parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal-gauge observations. Then we explore a new methodology for storm surge ensemble forecasting and apply it to Irene. This method applies a statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to generate large numbers of storm ensembles under the storm environment described by the 51 ECMWF ensemble members. The associated surge ensembles are then generated with the ADCIRC model. The numerical simulation is computationally efficient, making the method applicable to real-time storm surge ensemble forecasting. We report the results for NYC in this presentation. The ADCIRC simulation using the best track data generates a storm surge of 1.3 m and a storm tide of 2.1 m at the Battery, NYC, which agree well with the observed storm surge of 1.33 m and storm tide of 2.12 m, although the simulated surge arrives about 2 hours earlier than the observed. Based on the surge climatology estimated by Lin et al. (2012), Hurricane Irene's storm surge is approximately a 60-year event for NYC, but its storm tide, with the surge happening right at the high astronomical tide, is a 100-year event. Lin et al. (2012) also projected that such 100-year storm tide events might occur on average every 3-20 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise. The ensemble forecasting, starting from two and one days (each with 1000 ensembles) before Irene's first landfall in NC, shows that Irene's actual storm surge at the Battery had a chance of about 9% and 10% to be exceeded, respectively. The largest surges among the two ensemble sets are 2.28 m and 2.05 m, respectively. If happening at the high tide, as with Hurricane Irene, the worst-case storm tides would be about 3-3.2 m, similar to the highest historical water level at the Battery due to a hurricane in 1821. Lin et al. (2012) estimated that such a storm tide of about 3.1 m had a return period of about 500 years under current climate conditions, but the return period might become 25-240 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise.

A two-parameter design storm for Mediterranean convective rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García-Bartual, Rafael; Andrés-Doménech, Ignacio

2017-05-01

The following research explores the feasibility of building effective design storms for extreme hydrological regimes, such as the one which characterizes the rainfall regime of the east and south-east of the Iberian Peninsula, without employing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves as a starting point. Nowadays, after decades of functioning hydrological automatic networks, there is an abundance of high-resolution rainfall data with a reasonable statistic representation, which enable the direct research of temporal patterns and inner structures of rainfall events at a given geographic location, with the aim of establishing a statistical synthesis directly based on those observed patterns. The authors propose a temporal design storm defined in analytical terms, through a two-parameter gamma-type function. The two parameters are directly estimated from 73 independent storms identified from rainfall records of high temporal resolution in Valencia (Spain). All the relevant analytical properties derived from that function are developed in order to use this storm in real applications. In particular, in order to assign a probability to the design storm (return period), an auxiliary variable combining maximum intensity and total cumulated rainfall is introduced. As a result, for a given return period, a set of three storms with different duration, depth and peak intensity are defined. The consistency of the results is verified by means of comparison with the classic method of alternating blocks based on an IDF curve, for the above mentioned study case.

Ionospheric behaviour during storm recovery phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buresova, D.; Lastovicka, J.; Boska, J.; Sindelarova, T.; Chum, J.

2012-04-01

Intensive ionospheric research, numerous multi-instrumental observations and large-scale numerical simulations of ionospheric F region response to magnetic storm-induced disturbances during the last several decades were primarily focused on the storm main phase, in most cases covering only a few hours of the recovery phase following after storm culmination. Ionospheric behaviour during entire recovery phase still belongs to not sufficiently explored and hardly predictable features. In general, the recovery phase is characterized by an abatement of perturbations and a gradual return to the "ground state" of ionosphere. However, observations of stormy ionosphere show significant departures from the climatology also within this phase. This paper deals with the quantitative and qualitative analysis of the ionospheric behaviour during the entire recovery phase of strong-to-severe magnetic storms at middle latitudes for nowadays and future modelling and forecasting purposes.

Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) as a tool for the reconstruction of extreme wave event characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Bastian; Hoffmann, Gösta

2017-04-01

The shores of the Northern Indian Ocean were exposed to extreme wave inundation in the past. Two relevant hazards, storm surges triggered by tropical cyclones and tsunamis, are known to occur in the region but are rarely instrumentally recorded. Various sediment deposits along the coast are the only remnants of those past events. A profound understanding of return periods and magnitudes of past events is essential for developing land-use planning and risk mitigation measures in Oman and neighboring countries. A detailed investigation of these deposits, in this case primarily blocks and boulder trains but also fine grained sediments, provides insight on parameters such as wave height and inundation distance. These parameters can then be used for modeling inundation scenarios superimposed on modern infrastructure. We are investigating the spatial 3D-distribution of the extreme wave event sediments along the coastline through a high-precision survey of the event deposits using a Faro Focus 3D X330 TLS. A TLS is capable of recording high-detail and colored point clouds, which allows detailed measurements and has proved to be a powerful tool in geosciences. These multi-parameter point clouds in combination with dating results serve as a base for extreme wave event return period and magnitude estimations. Relevant parameters on large sediments are size, shape, volume, mass as well as relative arrangement, sorting and orientation. Furthermore, the TLS data is used to distinguish between the various boulder lithologies using a multi-scale supervised classification. Surface roughness as a result of weathering can serve as an indicator for exposure time of boulders and hint on various generations of extreme wave events. The distribution of the boulders relative to the site they were quarried from indicates on the flow direction of the waves and consequently might help to distinguish between storm and tsunami waves.

PROBABILISTIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE WIND, AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Werth, D.; NOEMAIL), A.; Shine, G.

Recent data sets for three meteorological phenomena with the potential to inflict damage on SRS facilities - tornadoes, straight winds, and heavy precipitation - are analyzed using appropriate statistical techniques to estimate occurrence probabilities for these events in the future. Summaries of the results for DOE-mandated return periods and comparisons to similar calculations performed in 1998 by Weber, et al., are given. Using tornado statistics for the states of Georgia and South Carolina, we calculated the probability per year of any location within a 2⁰ square area surrounding SRS being struck by a tornado (the ‘strike’ probability) and the probabilitymore » that any point will experience winds above set thresholds. The strike probability was calculated to be 1.15E-3 (1 chance in 870) per year and wind speeds for DOE mandated return periods of 50,000 years, 125,000 years, and 1E+7 years (USDOE, 2012) were estimated to be 136 mph, 151 mph and 221 mph, respectively. In 1998 the strike probability for SRS was estimated to be 3.53 E-4 and the return period wind speeds were 148 mph every 50,000 years and 180 mph every 125,000 years. A 1E+7 year tornado wind speed was not calculated in 1998; however a 3E+6 year wind speed was 260 mph. The lower wind speeds resulting from this most recent analysis are largely due to new data since 1998, and to a lesser degree differences in the models used. By contrast, default tornado wind speeds taken from ANSI/ANS-2.3-2011 are somewhat higher: 161 mph for return periods of 50,000 years, 173 mph every 125,000 years, and 230 mph every 1E+7 years (ANS, 2011). Although the ANS model and the SRS models are very similar, the region defined in ANS 2.3 that encompasses the SRS also includes areas of the Great Plains and lower Midwest, regions with much higher occurrence frequencies of strong tornadoes. The SRS straight wind values associated with various return periods were calculated by fitting existing wind data to a Gumbel distribution, and extrapolating the values for any return period from the tail of that function. For the DOE mandated return periods, we expect straight winds of 123 mph every 2500 years, and 132mph every 6250 years at any point within the SRS. These values are similar to those from the W98 report (which also used the Gumbel distribution for wind speeds) which gave wind speeds of 115mph and 122 mph for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years, respectively. For extreme precipitation accumulation periods, we compared the fits of three different theoretical extreme-value distributions, and in the end decided to maintain the use of the Gumbel distribution for each period. The DOE mandated 6-hr accumulated rainfall for return periods of 2500 years and 6250 years was estimated as 7.8 inches and 8.4 inches, respectively. For the 24- hr rainfall return periods of 10,000 years and 25,000 years, total rainfall estimates were 10.4 inches and 11.1 inches, respectively. These values are substantially lower than comparable values provided in the W98 report. This is largely a consequence of the W98 use of a different extreme value distribution with its corresponding higher extreme probabilities.« less

Examining Harry Thaw's "brain-storm" defense: APA and ANA presidents as expert witnesses in a 1907 trial.

PubMed

Pinta, Emil R

2008-06-01

In 1907, Harry K. Thaw, son of a railroad multi-millionaire, stood trial for shooting and killing architect Stanford White during the performance of a Broadway musical. The defense claimed that Thaw had experienced a "brain storm" causing temporary insanity. The brain-storm defense was ridiculed by professional groups, the public and the press. However, the defense experts were all respected leaders in their fields. They included five past or future presidents of the American Psychiatric Association and American Neurological Association. With no standard terminology in 1907, the much-maligned brain-storm diagnosis was in many respects an appropriate term for a sudden, drastic and temporary defect of reasoning having a physical cause. In spite of a strict test for mental nonresponsibility, the jury did not return a murder verdict.

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the issuing authority, these reports include wind speed and atmospheric pressure for a number of stations. However, there is also important ancillary information that includes satellite images, weather radar pictures, sea state recordings, tide gauge records, and coastal surveys. When collated together, the literature survey gives good view of events related to the autumn storm. The key information from media reports is backed up by quantitative numbers from the scientific literature. For energy meteorology in the offshore environment, there is an outline of extreme wave events that may be important to help define the ultimate limit state of engineering structures and the return periods of extreme waves. While this contribution focusses on events from an old storm in the autumn of 2006, more severe regional storms have occurred since then, and the scientific literature indicates that these may be linked with climate warming. Literature surveys may help to fully define extreme meteorological conditions offshore and benefit different branches of the energy industry in Europe.

Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

2012-06-01

A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

The strength and hemispheric asymmetry of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly during two geomagnetic storms in 2013 from Global Ionosphere Map and SAMI2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, Weihua; Zhu, Zhengping; Lan, Jiaping

2016-08-01

The variations of the strength and the hemispheric asymmetry of EIA were studied by Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) and SAMI2 during two geomagnetic storm periods in March and June 2013. Compared with the 30-days median TEC, the TEC at the two crests of EIA had small variations while the TEC at the trough had a more remarkable variation for the two storms after the SSC. The TEC difference between the two EIA peaks had an increase or decrease several hours after the SSC, the asymmetry between the two crests of EIA represented by the defined asymmetry index has no obvious variations except several hours after the SSC, and EIA strength represented by the Crest-to-Trough Ratio (CTR) had a remarkable increase one day after the SSC day for March storm and decrease several hours after the SSC for June storm. The variations last several hours, with more than 40% variations compared with the value during the quiet period. The EIA peaks were also found to move toward the equator after the SSC during the two storms. The simulation from SAMI2 and HWM07 also shows that EIA crests would move toward the equator during storm time and EIA strength would decrease, which suggests that the disturbed neutral wind and disturbed electric field may be important factors affecting the EIA during the storm periods.

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of an Ocean Model Response to Hurricane Ivan

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

the storm path in the control experiment is strongly influenced by the oceano graphic features. Over the northwest Caribbean and the LC (south of...1.5 li - sol -50M& L . mm Mm -0.5 0 0.5 1 Inerlial Periods 1.5 •0.5 0 0.5 1 Inerlial Periods 1.5 0.5 0 u

Reassessing Storm Surge Risk for New York City (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2013-12-01

New York City (NYC) is highly vulnerable to tropical cyclone (TC) storm surge flooding. In a previous study, we coupled a (reanalysis- or GCM-driven) hurricane model with hydrodynamic models to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events under observed and projected climates and assess surge threat for NYC. The storm surge return levels under the current and future climates (IPCC AR4 A1B scenario) were obtained. The results showed that the distribution of surge levels may shift to higher values in the future by a magnitude comparable to the projected sea-level rise. The study focused on typical TCs that have a storm size of the climatological mean for the Atlantic Basin and pass within a 200-km radius of the Battery, NYC. In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy, a barely Category-1 storm that made landfall about 200-km southwest from the Battery, caused the highest surge flooding of the instrumental record (~3.5 m above the mean sea level or ~2.8 m surge over the high tide) at the Battery. The extreme surge was due to the fact that the storm was a 'hybrid' event, undergoing extensive extratropical transition when making landfall almost perpendicularly to the NJ coast with an unusually large size. Sandy's case calls for a reassessment of storm surge risk for NYC that account for the special features of the storms in this region. In this reassessment, we account for the effect of extratropical transition on the wind fields through improving the surface background wind estimation, which was assumed to be uniform for typical TCs, by developing a representation of the interaction between the highly localized potential vorticity anomaly of the TC and its environmental baroclinic fields. We account for the storm size variation through incorporating the full probability distribution of the size for the region. Our preliminary results show that estimated wind and surge return levels are much higher with the effect of extratropical transition. The effect of the storm size variation is relatively large in the upper tail of the surge distribution. Also, we will update the prediction for future climates using the IPCC AR5 RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, and extend our focus area further south to capture storms that can induce high surges at the Battery, although making landfall relatively further away on the NJ coast. The results will be compared with those using the AR4 scenario in our previous study. The combined effects of storm climatology change and sea level rise on the risk of NYC surge flooding will be discussed.

Power spectra at radio frequency of lightning return stroke waveforms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lanzerotti, L. J.; Thomson, D. J.; Maclennan, C. G.; Rinnert, K.; Krider, E. P.

1989-01-01

The power spectra of the wideband (10 Hz to 100 kHz) magnetic field signals in a number of lightning return strokes (primarily first return strokes) measured during a lightning storm which occurred in Lindau, West Germany in August, 1984 have been calculated. The RF magnetic field data were obtained with the engineering unit of the Galileo Jupiter Probe lightning experiment. The spectra of the magnetic field data definitely show fine structure, with two or three distinct peaks appearing in the spectra of many of the waveforms. An enhancement of power at frequencies of about 60-70 kHz is often seen in the spectra of the waveform time segments preceding and following the rise-to-peak amplitude of the return stroke.

Evidence for multidecadal variability in US extreme sea level records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.

2015-03-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multidecadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Different data sampling and analysis techniques are applied to test the robustness of the results against the selected methodology. Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extratropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multidecadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-nonstationary extreme value analysis, we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (50-200 year return periods) ranging from ˜10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. The results raise questions as to the applicability of the "MSL offset method," assuming that ESL changes are primarily driven by changes in MSL without allowing for distinct long-term trends or low-frequency variations. Identifying the coherent multidecadal ESL variability is crucial in order to understand the physical driving factors. Ultimately, this information must be included into coastal design and adaptation processes.

Impact of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge and Inundation in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veeramony, J.

2016-12-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on surge and inundation due to tropical cyclones is important for coastal adaptation as well as mitigation efforts. Changes in global climate increase vulnerability of coastal environments to the threat posed by severe storms in a number of ways. Both the intensity of future storms as well as the return periods of more severe storms are expected to increase signficantly. Increasing mean sea levels lead to more areas being inundated due to storm surge and bring the threat of inundation further inland. Rainfall associated with severe storms are also expected to increase substantially, which will add to the intensity of inland flooding and coastal inundation. In this study, we will examine the effects of sea level rise and increasing rainfall intensity using Hurricane Ike as the baseline. The Delft3D modeling system will be set up in nested mode, with the outermost nest covering the Gulf of Mexico. The system will be run in a coupled mode, modeling both waves and the hydrodynamics. The baseline simulation will use the atmospheric forcing which consists of the NOAA H*Wind (Powell et all 1998) for the core hurricane characteristics blended with reanalyzed background winds to create a smooth wind field. The rainfall estimates are obtained from TRMM. From this baseline, a set of simulations will be performed to show the impact of sea level rise and increased rainfall activity on flooding and inundation along theTexas-Lousiana coast.

Survey of minor-to-moderate magnetic storm effects on ionosphere: American sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buresova, Dalia; Lastovicka, Jan; Chum, Jaroslav; Pezzopane, Michael; Staciarini Batista, Inez; Gularte, Erika; Novotna, Dagmar

2014-05-01

The paper is focused on ionospheric reaction to occasional minor-to-moderate magnetic storms above selected ionospheric stations located across the Northern and Southern America. Most of the storms analysed occurred under extremely low solar activity conditions of 2007-2009. We analysed variability of the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the F2 layer peak height hmF2 obtained for different latitudinal and longitudinal sectors of both hemispheres for the entire period of selected magnetic storms. Observations were compared with the effects of strong magnetic storms and with the IRI2000 outputs when STORM model option is activated. We analysed ionospheric reaction during each storm phase with main emphasis paid on the recovery phase. In general, storm recovery phase is characterized by an abatement of perturbations and a gradual return to the "ground state" of ionosphere. Magnetospheric substorms, typical for the main phase, as a rule cease during the storm recovery phase. However, observations of stormy ionosphere show significant departures from the climatology also within this phase, which are comparable with those usually observed during the storm main phase. Both positive and negative deviations of foF2 and hmF2 have been observed independent on season and location.

Stormwater Design Return Period Standards for U.S. Transportation Infrastructure: How Are States Approaching Resilience?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Lopez, T.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation in many regions, which is relevant for stormwater engineering designs and resilience in the transportation sector. Existing and future stormwater infrastructure is generally designed for historical and stationary hydrologic conditions. For example, the design return period is based on statistical analysis of past precipitation events, often over a 50-year historical timeline. The design return period translates into how much peak precipitation volume a system is designed for in a state, and provides information about the performance of a drainage structure. The higher the design period used by an engineer for a given stormwater system, the more peak stormwater volume the system can convey. Therefore, design return periods can be associated with a design's near-term and long-term resilience. However, there is a tradeoff between the choice of design return period, the total infrastructure capital cost, and the resilience of a system to heavy precipitation events. This study analyzes current stormwater infrastructure design guidelines for state departments of transportation in the contiguous United States, in order to understand how stormwater design return periods vary across states and provide insight into the resilience of current stormwater systems design. The study found that the design return period varies considerably across the United States by roadway functional class and drainage classification, as well as within climate regions. Understanding this variation will help states identify possible vulnerabilities, highlight deficiencies across states and infrastructure types, and help in updating design return periods to increase the climate resilience of stormwater infrastructure.

Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over China as Measured by 50-yr Return Values and Periods Based on a CMIP5 Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying; Gao, Xuejie; Giorgi, Filippo; Zhou, Botao; Shi, Ying; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Yongxiang

2018-04-01

Future changes in the 50-yr return level for temperature and precipitation extremes over mainland China are investigated based on a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The following indices are analyzed: TXx and TNn (the annual maximum and minimum of daily maximum and minimum surface temperature), RX5day (the annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation) and CDD (maximum annual number of consecutive dry days). After first validating the model performance, future changes in the 50-yr return values and return periods for these indices are investigated along with the inter-model spread. Multi-model median changes show an increase in the 50-yr return values of TXx and a decrease for TNn, more specifically, by the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, the present day 50-yr return period of warm events is reduced to 1.2 yr, while extreme cold events over the country are projected to essentially disappear. A general increase in RX5day 50-yr return values is found in the future. By the end of the 21st century under RCP8.5, events of the present RX5day 50-yr return period are projected to reduce to < 10 yr over most of China. Changes in CDD-50 show a dipole pattern over China, with a decrease in the values and longer return periods in the north, and vice versa in the south. Our study also highlights the need for further improvements in the representation of extreme events in climate models to assess the future risks and engineering design related to large-scale infrastructure in China.

Daylight time-resolved photographs of lightning.

PubMed

Qrville, R E; Lala, G G; Idone, V P

1978-07-07

Lightning dart leaders and return strokes have been recorded in daylight with both good spatial resolution and good time resolution as part of the Thunder-storm Research International Program. The resulting time-resolved photographs are apparently equivalent to the best data obtained earlier only at night. Average two-dimensional return stroke velocities in four subsequent strokes between the ground and a height of 1400 meters were approximately 1.3 x 10(8) meters per second. The estimated systematic error is 10 to 15 percent.

Statistical characterization of the Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunduri, B.; Baker, J. B.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Erickson, P. J.; Coster, A. J.; Oksavik, K.

2017-12-01

The Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) is a narrow region of westward directed plasma convection typically observed in the dusk-midnight sector equatorward of the main auroral oval. SAPS plays an important role in mid-latitude space weather dynamics and has a controlling influence on the evolution of large-scale plasma features, such as Storm Enhanced Density (SED) plumes. In this study, data from North American mid-latitude SuperDARN radars collected between January 2011 and December 2014 have been used to compile a database of SAPS events for statistical analysis. We examine the dependence of SAPS velocity magnitude and direction on geomagnetic activity and magnetic local time. The lowest speed limit and electric fields observed during SAPS are discussed and histograms of SAPS velocities for different Dst bins and MLAT-MLT locations are presented. We find significant differences in SAPS characteristics between periods of low and high geomagnetic activity, suggesting that SAPS are driven by different mechanisms during storm and non-storm conditions. To further explore this possibility, we have characterized the SAPS location and peak speed relative to the ionospheric trough specified by GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) data from the MIT Haystack Madrigal database. A particular emphasis is placed on identifying the extent to which the location, structure, and depth of the trough may play a controlling influence on SAPS speeds during storm and non-storm periods. The results are interpreted in terms of the current paradigm for active thermosphere-ionosphere feedback being an important component of SAPS physics.

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of relevant historical cyclones and on the simulation of the associated wave and cyclonic surge. The combined local sea elevations, called "set-up", are then fitted with a statistical distribution in order to obtain its time return characteristics. Several run-ups are then extracted, the inundation areas are calculated and the relative losses of the affected assets are deduced. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and the exposed elements location and seismic vulnerability result from past public risk assessment studies. The loss estimations are computed for several return time periods, measured in percentage of buildings being in a given EMS-98 damage state per grid block, which are then converted into loss ratio. In parallel, an asset estimation is conducted. It is mainly focused on private housing, but it considers some major public infrastructures as well. The final outcome of this work is a direct economic loss-frequency plot for earthquake and storm surge. The Probable Maximum Loss and the Average Annual Loss derivate from this risk curve. In addition, different sources of uncertainty are identified through the loss estimation process. The full propagation of these uncertainties can provide an interval of confidence, which can be assigned to the risk-curve and we show how such additional information can be useful for risk comparison.

Caracterización de los cinturones de radiación durante tormentas geomagnéticas de origen solar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanabere, V.; Dasso, S.

2016-08-01

A radiation belt in the space environment of a magnetized planet contains energetic particles, electrically charged, trapped by the magnetic field of the planet. In the terrestrial case, the inner van Allen belt extends from (1--3) Earth radii at the equator and the outer van Allen belt from (3--9) Earth radii at equator. The purpose of this work is to characterize different aspects of the population of electrons in the energy range (0.249--3) MeV, at 660 km altitude using measurements made by the detector ICARE-NG/CARMEN-1 on board the polar Argentinean satellite SAC-D. The variations of the electron flux in quiet periods and disturbed conditions for an event of magnetic storm in March 2012 are quantified. During the storm, an enhancement of the electron flux at high latitudes associated with the outer radiation belt, reaching respect the annual mean value is observed. The relaxation toward the typical values found during non-storm periods is slow, showing that even two weeks later, the difference reaches values of .

Diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads in precipitation and urban and agricultural storm runoff during January and February 2001 in the San Joaquin River basin, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zamora, Celia; Kratzer, Charles R.; Majewski, Michael S.; Knifong, Donna L.

2003-01-01

The application of diazinon and chlorpyrifos on dormant orchards in 2001 in the San Joaquin River Basin was 24 percent less and 3.2 times more than applications in 2000, respectively. A total of 16 sites were sampled during January and February 2001 storm events: 7 river sites, 8 precipitation sites, and 1 urban storm drain. The seven river sites were sampled weekly during nonstorm periods and more frequently during storm runoff from a total of four storms. The monitoring of storm runoff at a city storm drain in Modesto, California, occurred simultaneously with the collection of precipitation samples from eight sites during a January 2001 storm event. The highest concentrations of diazinon occurred during the storm periods for all 16 sites, and the highest concentrations of chlorpyrifos occurred during weekly nonstorm sampling for the river sites and during the January storm period for the urban storm drain and precipitation sites. A total of 60 samples (41 from river sites, 10 from precipitation sites, and 9 from the storm drain site) had diazinon concentrations greater than 0.08 ?g/L, the concentration being considered by the California Department of Fish and Game as its criterion maximum concentration for the protection of aquatic habitats. A total of 18 samples (2 from river sites, 9 from precipitation sites, and 7 from the storm drain site) exceeded the equivalent California Department of Fish and Game guideline of 0.02 ?g/L for chlorpyrifos. The total diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2001 was 23.8 pounds active ingredient; of this amount, 16.9 pounds active ingredient were transported by four storms, 1.06 pounds active ingredient were transported by nonstorm events, and 5.82 pounds active ingredient were considered to be baseline loads. The total chlorpyrifos load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2001 was 2.17 pounds active ingredient; of this amount, 0.702 pound active ingredient was transported during the four storms, and 1.47 pounds active ingredient were considered as baseline load. The total January and February diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis was 0.27 percent of dormant application; the total January and February chlorpyrifos load was 0.02 percent of dormant application. The precipitation samples collected during the January 2001 storm event were analyzed for pesticides to evaluate their potential contribution to pesticide loads in the study area. When the average concentrations of diazinon and chlorpyrifos in the precipitation samples were compared with concentrations in urban storm runoff samples, 68 percent of the diazinon concentration in the runoff could be accounted for in the precipitation. Chlorpyrifos, however, had average precipitation concentrations that were 2.5 times higher than what was detected in the runoff. Although no firm conclusions can be made from one storm event, preliminary results indicate that pesticides in precipitation can significantly contribute to pesticide loads in storm runoff.

Coastal flooding impact evaluation using an INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model for Varna region, Western Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andreeva, Nataliya; Eftimova, Petya; Valchev, Nikolay; Prodanov, Bogdan

2017-04-01

The study presents evaluation and comparative analysis of storm induced flooding impacts on different coastal receptors at a scale of Varna region using INtegrated DisRuption Assessment (INDRA) model. The model was developed within the FP7 RISC-KIT project, as a part of Coastal Risk Assessment Framework (CRAF) consisting of two phases. CRAF Phase 1 is a screening process that evaluates coastal risk at a regional scale by means of coastal indices approach, which helps to identify potentially vulnerable coastal sectors: hot spots (HS). CRAF Phase 2 has the objective to assess and rank identified hotspots by detailed risk analysis done by jointly performing a hazard assessment and an impact evaluation on different categories (population, businesses, ecosystems, transport and utilities) using INDRA model at a regional level. Basically, the model assess the shock of events by estimating the impact on directly exposed to flooding hazard receptors of different vulnerability, as well as the potential ripple effects during an event in order to assess the "indirect" impacts, which occur outside the hazard area and/or continue after the event for all considered categories. The potential impacts are expressed in terms of uniform "Impact Indicators", which independently score the indirect impacts of these categories assessing disruption and recovery of the receptors. The ultimate hotspot ranking is obtained through the use of a Multi Criteria analysis (MCA) incorporated in the model, considering preferences of stakeholders. The case study area - Varna regional coast - is located on the western Black Sea, Bulgaria. The coastline, with a length of about 70 km, stretches from cape Ekrene to cape St. Atanas and includes Varna Bay. After application of CRAF Phase 1 three hotspots were selected for further analysis: Kabakum beach (HS1), Varna Central beach plus Port wall (HS2) and Artificial Island (HS3). For first two hotspots beaches and associated infrastructure are the assets that attract holiday-makers and tourists in summer season. For HS3 the exposed area is occupied by storage premises for industrial goods and oil/fuel tanks. Flooding hazard was assessed through coupled use of XBeach 1D and LISFLOOD 2D inundation models at the selected hotspots. The "response" approach was adopted as 75 extreme storm events were simulated to obtain storm maxima series of overtopping discharges, flood depth, depth-velocity and berm retreat. The selected return periods within the extreme value analysis were 20, 50 and 100 years. For impact evaluation by INDRA model the categories "Population" and "Business" were considered. Impacts on Population were addressed by 3 impact indicators: "Risk to Life", "Household Displacement Time" and "Household Financial Recovery", while for Business category only by "Business Financial Recovery". Hotspots ranking was done using MCA by weighting of the evaluated indicators: focused on Risk to Life (F1) and on Business Financial Recovery (F2). MCA scoring focused on Household displacement/recovery was not evaluated because modelling results revealed quite a low number of flooded household receptors. Results show that for both F1 and F2 and for all considered return periods HS2 has the highest scores, which makes it a final hotspot.

Large-Scale Simulation of Multi-Asset Ising Financial Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takaishi, Tetsuya

2017-03-01

We perform a large-scale simulation of an Ising-based financial market model that includes 300 asset time series. The financial system simulated by the model shows a fat-tailed return distribution and volatility clustering and exhibits unstable periods indicated by the volatility index measured as the average of absolute-returns. Moreover, we determine that the cumulative risk fraction, which measures the system risk, changes at high volatility periods. We also calculate the inverse participation ratio (IPR) and its higher-power version, IPR6, from the absolute-return cross-correlation matrix. Finally, we show that the IPR and IPR6 also change at high volatility periods.

Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furl, Chad; Sharif, Hatim; ElHassan, Almoutaz; Mazari, Newfel; Burtch, Daniel; Mullendore, Gretchen

2015-04-01

Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred 7-8 September 2010 across central Texas resulting in several fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, TX and immediately north where twenty four hour accumulations reached a 500 year recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, TX where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s-1. The large flows were produced from a narrow band of intense storm cells training over the small watershed for approximately six hours. Meteorological analysis along with Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations indicate a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico were important features producing the locally heavy rainfall. The effect from the Balcones Escarpment was explicitly tested by conducting simulations with and without the escarpment terrain. High resolution, gauge adjusted radar collected as part of a flash flood warning system was used to describe spatiotemporal rainfall patterns and force the Gridded Surface/Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model. The radar dataset indicated the basin received nearly 300 mm of precipitation with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm hr-1. Roughly 60 percent of storm totals fell during two periods lasting a combined five hours. Stream flow showed a highly non-linear response to two periods of intense rainfall. GSSHA simulations indicate this can be partially explained by the spatial organization of rainfall coupled with landscape retention.

Non-stationarity of extreme weather events in a changing climate - an application to long-term droughts in the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grossmann, I.

2013-12-01

Return periods of many extreme weather events are not stationary over time, given increasing risks due to global warming and multidecadal variability resulting from large scale climate patterns. This is problematic as extreme weather events and long-term climate risks such as droughts are typically conceptualized via measures such as return periods that implicitly assume non-stationarity. I briefly review these problems and present an application to the non-stationarity of droughts in the US Southwest. The US Southwest relies on annual precipitation maxima during winter and the North American Monsoon (NAM), both of which vary with large-scale climate patterns, in particular ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The latter two exhibit variability on longer (multi-decadal) time scales in addition to short-term variations. The region is also part of the subtropical belt projected to become more arid in a warming climate. The possible multidecadal impacts of the PDO on precipitation in the study region are analyzed with a focus on Arizona and New Mexico, using GPCC and CRU data since 1900. The projected impacts of the PDO on annual precipitation during the next three decades with GPCC data are similar in scale to the impacts of global warming on precipitation according to the A1B scenario and the CMIP2 multi-model means, while the combined impact of the PDO and AMO is about 19% larger. The effects according to the CRU dataset are about half as large as the projected global warming impacts. Given the magnitude of the projected impacts from both multidecadal variability and global warming, water management needs to explicitly incorporate both of these trends into long-term planning. Multi-decadal variability could be incorporated into the concept of return periods by presenting return periods as time-varying or as conditional on the respective 'phase' of relevant multidecadal patterns and on global warming. Problems in detecting the PDO signal and potential solutions are also discussed. We find that the long-term effect of the PDO can be more clearly separated from short-term variability by considering return periods of multi-year drought measures rather than return periods of simple drought measures that are more affected by short-term variations.

Suspended-sediment loads in the lower Stillaguamish River, Snohomish County, Washington, 2014–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anderson, Scott A.; Curran, Christopher A.; Grossman, Eric E.

2017-08-03

Continuous records of discharge and turbidity at a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage in the lower Stillaguamish River were paired with discrete measurements of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) in order to estimate suspended-sediment loads over the water years 2014 and 2015. First, relations between turbidity and SSC were developed and used to translate the continuous turbidity record into a continuous estimate of SSC. Those concentrations were then used to predict suspended-sediment loads based on the current discharge record, reported at daily intervals. Alternative methods were used to in-fill a small number of days with either missing periods of turbidity or discharge records. Uncertainties in our predictions at daily and annual time scales were estimated based on the parameter uncertainties in our turbidity-SSC regressions. Daily loads ranged from as high as 121,000 tons during a large autumn storm to as low as –56 tons, when tidal return flow moved more sediment upstream than river discharge did downstream. Annual suspended-sediment loads for both water years were close to 1.4 ± 0.2 million tons.

Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

PubMed

Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

2017-01-01

This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

2017-01-01

This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

Frequency Analysis of Extreme Sub-Daily Precipitation under Stationary and Non-Stationary Conditions across Two Contrasting Hydroclimatic Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demaria, E. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Keefer, T.

2017-12-01

Observed sub-daily precipitation intensities from contrasting hydroclimatic environments in the USA are used to evaluate temporal trends and to develop Intensity-Duration Frequency (IDF) curves under stationary and nonstationary climatic conditions. Analyses are based on observations from two United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)-Agricultural Research Service (ARS) experimental watersheds located in a semi-arid and a temperate environment. We use an Annual Maximum Series (AMS) and a Partial Duration Series (PDS) approach to identify temporal trends in maximum intensities for durations ranging from 5- to 1440-minutes. A Bayesian approach with Monte Carlo techniques is used to incorporate the effect of non-stationary climatic assumptions in the IDF curves. The results show increasing trends in observed AMS sub-daily intensities in both watersheds whereas trends in the PDS observations are mostly positive in the semi-arid site and a mix of positive and negative in the temperate site. Stationary climate assumptions lead to much lower estimated sub-daily intensities than those under non-stationary assumptions with larger absolute differences found for shorter durations and smaller return periods. The risk of failure (R) of a hydraulic structure is increased for non-stationary effects over those of stationary effects, with absolute differences of 25% for a 100-year return period (T) and a project life (n) of 100 years. The study highlights the importance of considering non-stationarity, due to natural variability or to climate change, in storm design.

Quantifying thresholds for significant dune erosion along the Sefton Coast, Northwest England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esteves, Luciana S.; Brown, Jennifer M.; Williams, Jon J.; Lymbery, Graham

2012-03-01

Field and model hindcast data are used to establish a critical dune erosion threshold for the Sefton Coast (NW England). Events are classified as causing significant erosion if they result in: (a) a mean dune retreat along the entire study area of > 2 m; (b) a dune retreat of ≥ 5 m along a coastal segment ≥ 2 km in length; and (c) an eroded area ≥ 20,000 m2. For the period 1996 to 2008, individual storms were characterised using hindcast results from a POLCOMS-WAM model and measured data from the Liverpool Bay Coastal Observatory. Results show that combined extreme surge levels (> 1.5 m) and wave heights (> 4 m), or tidal water levels above 9.0 m Chart Datum (CD), do not always result in significant dune erosion. Evidence suggests that erosion is more likely to occur when wave heights are > 2.6 m, peak water level is > 10.2 m CD at Liverpool and when consecutive tidal cycles provide 10 h or more of water levels above 9.4 m CD. However, lower water levels and wave heights, and shorter events of sustained water levels, can cause significant erosion in the summer. While the return period for events giving rise to the most severe erosion in the winter is > 50 years, significant erosion in the summer can be caused by events with return periods < 1 year. It is suggested that this may be attributable to a known reduction in the mean dune toe elevation c. 30 cm. Although the study shows it might be possible to characterise objectively storm events based on oceanographic conditions, the resultant morphological change at the coast is demonstrated to depend on the time and duration of events, and on other variables which are not so easy to quantify. Further investigation is needed to understand the influence of alongshore and seasonal variability in beach/dune morphology in determining the response to the hydrodynamic and meteorological conditions causing significant erosion. Improved monitoring pre- and post-storm of changes in beach/dune morphology is required to develop reliable proxies that can be used to establish early warning systems to mitigate the impacts of erosion and flooding in the future.

Field Observation of Heterogeneous Formation of Dicarboxylic acids, Keto-carboxylic acids, α-Dicarbonyls and Nitrate in Xi'an, China during Asian dust storm periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Wang, J.; Ren, Y.; Li, J.

2015-12-01

To understand the formation mechanism of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) on dust surfaces, this study investigated the concentrations and compositions of dicarboxylic acids (C2-C11), keto-carboxylic acids (C3-C7), α-dicarbonyls and inorganic ions in size-segregated aerosols (9-stages) collected in Xi'an, China during the nondust storm and dust storm periods of 2009 and 2011. During the events the ambient particulate dicarboxylic acids were 932-2240 ng m-3, which are comparable and even higher than those in nondust periods. Molecular compositions of the above SOA are similar to those in nondust periods with oxalic acid being the leading species. In the presence of the dust storms, all the above mentioned SOA species in Xi'an were predominantly enriched on the coarse particles (>2.1μm), and oxalic acid well correlated with NO3- (R2=0.72, p<0.001) rather than SO42-.This phenomenon differs greatly from the SOA in any other nondust period that is characterized by an enrichment of oxalic acid in fine particles and a strong correlation of oxalic acid with SO42-. Our results further demonstrate that NO3- in the dust periods in Xi'an was mostly derived from secondary oxidation, whereas SO42- during the events was largely derived from surface soil of Gobi deserts. We propose a formation pathway to explain these observations, in which nitric acid and/or nitrogen oxides react with dust to produce Ca(NO3)2 and form a liquid phase on the surface of dust aerosols via water vapor-absorption of Ca(NO3)2, followed by a partitioning of the gas-phase water-soluble organic precursors (e.g.,glyoxal and methylglyoxal) into the aqueous-phase and a subsequent oxidation into oxalic acid. To the best of our knowledge, we found for the first time the enrichment of glyoxal and methylglyoxal on dust surface. Our data suggest an important role of nitrate in the heterogeneous formation process of SOA on the surface of Asian dust.

Dystonic storm: a practical clinical and video review.

PubMed

Termsarasab, Pichet; Frucht, Steven J

2017-01-01

Dystonic storm is a frightening hyperkinetic movement disorder emergency. Marked, rapid exacerbation of dystonia requires prompt intervention and admission to the intensive care unit. Clinical features of dystonic storm include fever, tachycardia, tachypnea, hypertension, sweating and autonomic instability, often progressing to bulbar dysfunction with dysarthria, dysphagia and respiratory failure. It is critical to recognize early and differentiate dystonic storm from other hyperkinetic movement disorder emergencies. Dystonic storm usually occurs in patients with known dystonia, such as DYT1 dystonia, Wilson's disease and dystonic cerebral palsy. Triggers such as infection or medication adjustment are present in about one-third of all events. Due to the significant morbidity and mortality of this disorder, we propose a management algorithm that divides decision making into two periods: the first 24 h, and the next 2-4 weeks. During the first 24 h, supportive therapy should be initiated, and appropriate patients should be identified early as candidates for pallidal deep brain stimulation or intrathecal baclofen. Management in the next 2-4 weeks aims at symptomatic dystonia control and supportive therapies.

Characterizing Interplanetary Structures of Long-Lasting Ionospheric Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandoi, C.; Dong, Y.; Ngwira, C. M.; Damas, M. C.

2015-12-01

Geomagnetic storms can result in periods of heightened TEC (Total Electron Content) in Earth's ionosphere. These periods of change in TEC (dTEC) can have adverse impacts on a technological society, such as scintillation of radio signals used by communication and navigation satellites. However, it is unknown which exact properties of a given storm cause dTEC. We are comparing different solar wind properties that result in a significant long-lasting dTEC to see if there are any patterns that remain constant in these storms. These properties, among others, include the interplanetary magnetic field By and Bz components, the proton density, and the flow speed. As a preliminary investigation, we have studied 15 solar storms. Preliminary results will be presented. In the future, we hope to increase our sample size and analyze over 80 different solar storms, which result in significant dTEC.

KSC-06pd1980

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-08-29

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - A serene scene surrounds Space Shuttle Atlantis as it begins rolling off Launch Pad 39B to return to the Vehicle Assembly Building. First motion off the pad was at 10:04 a.m. EDT. The crawler is 131 feet long, 113 feet wide and 20 feet high. It weights 5.5 million pounds unloaded. The combined weight of crawler, mobile launcher platform and a space shuttle is 12 million pounds. Unloaded, the crawler moves at 2 mph. Loaded, the snail's pace slows to 1 mph. The rollback is a safety precaution as the area waits for the arrival of Tropical Storm Ernesto. The storm is forecast to be bringing 58-mph to 70-mph winds in the next 24 hours. The shuttle will be moved into high bay 2, on the southwest side of the VAB, for protection from the storm. Photo credit: NASA/Ken Thornsley

Scenario-based projections of future urban inundation within a coupled hydrodynamic model framework: A case study in Dongguan City, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xushu; Wang, Zhaoli; Guo, Shenglian; Liao, Weilin; Zeng, Zhaoyang; Chen, Xiaohong

2017-04-01

One major threat to cities at present is the increased inundation hazards owing to changes in climate and accelerated human activity. Future evolution of urban inundation is still an unsolved issue, given large uncertainties in future environmental conditions within urbanized areas. Developing model techniques and urban inundation projections are essential for inundation management. In this paper, we proposed a 2D hydrodynamic inundation model by coupling SWMM and LISFLOOD-FP models, and revealed how future urban inundation would evolve for different storms, sea level rise and subsidence scenarios based on the developed model. The Shiqiao Creek District (SCD) in Dongguan City was used as the case study. The model ability was validated against the June 13th, 2008 inundation event, which occurred in SCD, and proved capable of simulating dynamic urban inundation. Scenario analyses revealed a high degree of consistency in the inundation patterns among different storms, with larger magnitudes corresponding to greater return periods. Inundations across SCD generally vary as a function of storm intensity, but for lowlands or regions without drainage facilities inundations tend to aggravate over time. In riverfronts, inundations would exacerbate with sea level rise or subsidence; however, the inland inundations are seemingly insensitive to both factors. For the combined scenario of 100-yr storm, 0.5 m subsidence and 0.7 m sea level rise, the riverside inundations would occur much in advance, whilst catastrophic inundations sweep across SCD. Furthermore, the optimal low-impact development found for this case study includes 0.2 km2 of permeable pavements, 0.1 km2 of rain barrels and 0.7 km2 of green roofs.

Dune recovery after storm erosion on a high-energy beach: Vougot Beach, Brittany (France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suanez, Serge; Cariolet, Jean-Marie; Cancouët, Romain; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Delacourt, Christophe

2012-02-01

On 10th March 2008, the high energy storm Johanna hit the French Atlantic coast, generating severe dune erosion on Vougot Beach (Brittany, France). In this paper, the recovery of the dune of Vougot Beach is analysed through a survey of morphological changes and hydrodynamic conditions. Data collection focused on the period immediately following storm Johanna until July 2010, i.e. over two and a half years. Results showed that the dune retreated by a maximum of almost 6 m where storm surge and wave attack were the most energetic. Dune retreat led to the creation of accommodation space for the storage of sediment by widening and elevating space between the pre- and post-storm dune toe, and reducing impacts of the storm surge. Dune recovery started in the month following the storm event and is still ongoing. It is characterised by the construction of "secondary" embryo dunes, which recovered at an average rate of 4-4.5 cm per month, although average monthly volume changes varied from - 1 to 2 m 3.m - 1 . These embryo dunes accreted due to a large aeolian sand supply from the upper tidal beach to the existing foredune. These dune-construction processes were facilitated by growth of vegetation on low-profile embryo dunes promoting backshore accretion. After more than two years of survey, the sediment budget of the beach/dune system showed that more than 10,000 m 3 has been lost by the upper tidal beach. We suggest that seaward return currents generated during the storm of 10th March 2008 are responsible for offshore sediment transport. Reconstitution of the equilibrium beach profile following the storm event may therefore have generated cross-shore sediment redistribution inducing net erosion in the tidal zone.

On the derivation of the areal reduction factor of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacchi, Baldassare; Ranzi, Roberto

A stochastic derivation of the areal reduction factor (ARF) of the storm intensity is presented: it is based on the analysis of the crossing properties of the rainfall process aggregated in space and time. As a working hypothesis, the number of crossings of high rainfall intensity levels is assumed to be Poisson-distributed and a hyperbolic tail of the probability of exceedances of rainfall intensity has been adopted. These hypotheses are supported by the analysis of radar maps during an intense storm event which occurred in Northern Italy. The reduction factor derived from this analysis shows a power-law decay with respect to the area of integration and the duration of the storm. The areal reduction results as a function of the storm duration and of its frequency. A weak, but significant decrease of the areal reduction factor with respect to the return period is shown by the functions derived, and this result is consistent with that of some recent studies on this topic. The results derived, although preliminary, may find useful applications for the definition of the design storm in urban catchments of a size greater than some square kilometres and with duration of some hours.

Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

2013-05-01

The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one, which aim to better manage the coastal area and reduce its vulnerability to hurricanes. References Bretschneider, C.L., 1990. Tropical Cyclones. Handbook of Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Gulf Publishing Co., Vol. 1, 249-370. Holland, G.L., 1980. An analytical model of wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108, 1212-1218. Posada, G., Silva, R. & de Brye, S. 2008. Three dimensional hydrodynamic model with multiquadtree meshes. American Journal of Environmental Sciences. 4(3): 209-222. Silva, R., Govaere, G., Salles, P., Bautista, G. & Díaz, G. 2002. Oceanographic vulnerability to hurricanes on the Mexican coast. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, pp. 39-51.

Seasonal variability in hydrologic-system response to intense rain events, Matanuska Glacier, Alaska, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denner, J.C.; Lawson, D.E.; Larson, G.J.; Evenson, E.B.; Alley, R.B.; Strasser, J.C.; Kopczynski, S.

1999-01-01

Two rain events at Matanuska Glacier illustrate how subglacial drainage system development and snowpack conditions affect hydrologic response at the terminus. On 21 and 22 September 1995, over 56 mm of rain fell in the basin during a period usually characterized by much drier conditions. This event caused an 8-fold increase in discharge and a 47-fold increase in suspended-sediment concentration. Peak suspended-sediment concentration exceeded 20 kg m-3, suggesting rapid evacuation of stored sediment. While water discharge returned to its pre-storm level nine days after the rain ceased, suspended-sediment concentrations took about 20 days to return to pre-storm levels. These observations suggest that the storm influx late in the melt season probably forced subglacial water into a more distributed system. In addition, subglacially transported sediments were supplemented to an unknown degree by the influx of storm-eroded sediments off hillslopes and from tributary drainage basins. A storm on 6 and 7 June 1997, dropped 28 mm of rain on the basin demonstrating the effects of meltwater retention in the snowpack and englacial and subglacial storage early in the melt season. Streamflow before the storm event was increasing gradually owing to warming temperatures; however, discharge during the storm and the following week increased only slightly. Suspended-sediment concentrations increased only a small amount, suggesting the drainage system was not yet well developed, and much of the runoff occurred across the relatively clean surface of the glacier or through englacial channels.

Development of wave and surge atlas for the design and protection of coastal bridges in south Louisiana - phase 2, tech summary.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-01

The first phase of this project, documented in LTRC Final Report 528, developed meteorological/ : oceanographic (met/ocean) data for the 100-year storm return period in south Louisiana and presented the : data in a GIS platform known as the Wave and ...

The storm-time assessment of GNSS-SBAS performance within low latitude African region using a testbed-like platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe, O. E.; Paparini, C.; Ngaya, R. H.; Otero Villamide, X.; Radicella, S. M.; Nava, B.

2017-09-01

A Satellite Based Augmentation System (SBAS) is designed to improve Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) in terms of integrity, accuracy, availability and continuity. The main limitation to SBAS performance optimization is the ionosphere, and this is more critical in low latitude. During geomagnetically disturbed periods the role of storm-time winds is important because they modify the atmospheric composition toward low latitudes. An index of ionospheric disturbance, the relative percentage of deviation of the vertical Total Electron Content (TEC) from the quiet level (DvTEC) at each station was evaluated to study positive and negative phases of the geomagnetic storms. The rate of change of TEC index (ROTI) over all the GNSS stations was estimated to evaluate equatorial ionospheric gradients and irregularities. From the study it is observed that the positive deviations are more frequent than negative ones. The availability map, which is the mean of the combine Vertical Protection Level (VPL) and Horizontal Protection Level (HPL) are used for the SBAS performance. The cases of moderate and minor storms studied during the months of July and October 2013 showed that the SBAS system performance during the disturbed periods depends on the local time in which the storm occurs, geographic longitude and other phenomena that need further study. During the storm-time conditions considered, three out of seven geomagnetic storms indicated good SBAS performance and exceed monthly average of the availability map, three geomagnetic storms reduced the system performance below monthly average while one does not have effect on SBAS system performance in respect to monthly average. The present study indicates ROTI as a better proxy than geomagnetic indices for the assessment of storm-time effects on GNSS-SBAS performance.

Joint Probability Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Storm Tide in a Coastal City under Changing Environment

PubMed Central

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt’s tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment. PMID:25310006

Joint probability analysis of extreme precipitation and storm tide in a coastal city under changing environment.

PubMed

Xu, Kui; Ma, Chao; Lian, Jijian; Bin, Lingling

2014-01-01

Catastrophic flooding resulting from extreme meteorological events has occurred more frequently and drawn great attention in recent years in China. In coastal areas, extreme precipitation and storm tide are both inducing factors of flooding and therefore their joint probability would be critical to determine the flooding risk. The impact of storm tide or changing environment on flooding is ignored or underestimated in the design of drainage systems of today in coastal areas in China. This paper investigates the joint probability of extreme precipitation and storm tide and its change using copula-based models in Fuzhou City. The change point at the year of 1984 detected by Mann-Kendall and Pettitt's tests divides the extreme precipitation series into two subsequences. For each subsequence the probability of the joint behavior of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated by the optimal copula. Results show that the joint probability has increased by more than 300% on average after 1984 (α = 0.05). The design joint return period (RP) of extreme precipitation and storm tide is estimated to propose a design standard for future flooding preparedness. For a combination of extreme precipitation and storm tide, the design joint RP has become smaller than before. It implies that flooding would happen more often after 1984, which corresponds with the observation. The study would facilitate understanding the change of flood risk and proposing the adaption measures for coastal areas under a changing environment.

Transport of sediment-bound organochlorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kratzer, C.R.

1999-01-01

Suspended sediment samples were collected in westside tributaries and the main stem of the San Joaquin River, California, in June 1994 during the irrigation season and in January 1995 during a winter storm. These samples were analyzed for 15 organochlorine pesticides to determine their occurrence and their concentrations on suspended sediment and to compare transport during the irrigation season (April to September) to transport during winter storm runoff (October to March). Ten organochlorine pesticides were detected during the winter storm runoff; seven during the irrigation season. The most frequently detected organochlorine pesticides during both sampling periods were p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDT, p,p'-DDD, dieldrin, toxaphene, and chlordane. Dissolved samples were analyzed for three organochlorine pesticides during the irrigation season and for 15 during the winter storm. Most calculated total concentrations of p,p'-DDT, chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. At eight sites in common between sampling periods, suspended sediment concentrations and streamflow were greater during the winter storm runoff median concentration of 3,590 mg/L versus 489 mg/and median streamflow of 162 ft3/s versus 11 ft3/s. Median concentrations of total DDT (sum of p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDE, and p,p'-DDT), chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene on suspended sediment were slightly greater during the irrigation season, but instantaneous loads of organochlorine pesticides at the time of sampling were substantially greater during the winter storm. Estimated loads for the entire irrigation season exceeded estimated loads for the January 1995 storm by about 2 to 4 times for suspended transport and about 3 to 11 times for total transport. However, because the mean annual winter runoff is about 2 to 4 times greater than the runoff during the January 1995 storm, mean winter transport may be similar to irrigation season transport. This conclusion is tentative primarily because of insufficient information on long-term seasonal variations in suspended sediment and organochlorine concentrations. Nevertheless, runoff from infrequent winter storms will continue to deliver a significant load of sediment-bound organochlorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River even if irrigation-induced sediment transport is reduced. As a result, concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in San Joaquin River biota will continue to be relatively high compared to other regions of the United States.

A probabilistic storm transposition approach for estimating exceedance probabilities of extreme precipitation depths

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

1989-05-01

A storm transposition approach is investigated as a possible tool of assessing the frequency of extreme precipitation depths, that is, depths of return period much greater than 100 years. This paper focuses on estimation of the annual exceedance probability of extreme average precipitation depths over a catchment. The probabilistic storm transposition methodology is presented, and the several conceptual and methodological difficulties arising in this approach are identified. The method is implemented and is partially evaluated by means of a semihypothetical example involving extreme midwestern storms and two hypothetical catchments (of 100 and 1000 mi2 (˜260 and 2600 km2)) located in central Iowa. The results point out the need for further research to fully explore the potential of this approach as a tool for assessing the probabilities of rare storms, and eventually floods, a necessary element of risk-based analysis and design of large hydraulic structures.

Physical criteria for distinguishing sandy tsunami and storm deposits using modern examples

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Gelfenbaum, Guy; Jaffe, Bruce E.

2007-01-01

Modern subaerial sand beds deposited by major tsunamis and hurricanes were compared at trench, transect, and sub-regional spatial scales to evaluate which attributes are most useful for distinguishing the two types of deposits. Physical criteria that may be diagnostic include: sediment composition, textures and grading, types and organization of stratification, thickness, geometry, and landscape conformity. Published reports of Pacific Ocean tsunami impacts and our field observations suggest that sandy tsunami deposits are generally 30 cm thick, generally extend The distinctions between tsunami and storm deposits are related to differences in the hydrodynamics and sediment-sorting processes during transport. Tsunami deposition results from a few high-velocity, long-period waves that entrain sediment from the shoreface, beach, and landward erosion zone. Tsunamis can have flow depths greater than 10 m, transport sediment primarily in suspension, and distribute the load over a broad region where sediment falls out of suspension when flow decelerates. In contrast, storm inundation generally is gradual and prolonged, consisting of many waves that erode beaches and dunes with no significant overland return flow until after the main flooding. Storm flow depths are commonly

Risk-Informed Mean Recurrence Intervals for Updated Wind Maps in ASCE 7-16.

PubMed

McAllister, Therese P; Wang, Naiyu; Ellingwood, Bruce R

2018-05-01

ASCE 7 is moving toward adopting load requirements that are consistent with risk-informed design goals characteristic of performance-based engineering (PBE). ASCE 7-10 provided wind maps that correspond to return periods of 300, 700, and 1,700 years for Risk Categories I, II, and combined III/IV, respectively. The risk targets for Risk Categories III and IV buildings and other structures (designated as essential facilities) are different in PBE. The reliability analyses reported in this paper were conducted using updated wind load data to (1) confirm that the return periods already in ASCE 7-10 were also appropriate for risk-informed PBE, and (2) to determine a new risk-based return period for Risk Category IV. The use of data for wind directionality factor, K d , which has become available from recent wind tunnel tests, revealed that reliabilities associated with wind load combinations for Risk Category II structures are, in fact, consistent with the reliabilities associated with the ASCE 7 gravity load combinations. This paper shows that the new wind maps in ASCE 7-16, which are based on return periods of 300, 700, 1,700, and 3,000 years for Risk Categories I, II, III, and IV, respectively), achieve the reliability targets in Section 1.3.1.3 of ASCE 7-16 for nonhurricane wind loads.

Orbit-spin coupling and the interannual variability of global-scale dust storm occurrence on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, James H.; Mischna, Michael A.

2017-05-01

A new physical hypothesis predicts that a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational motions of extended bodies may give rise to a modulation of circulatory flows within their atmospheres. Driven cycles of intensification and relaxation of large-scale circulatory flows are predicted, with the phasing of these changes linked directly to the rate of change of the orbital angular momentum, dL/dt, with respect to inertial frames. We test the hypothesis that global-scale dust storms (GDS) on Mars may occur when periods of circulatory intensification (associated with positive and negative extrema of the dL/dt waveform) coincide with the southern summer dust storm season on Mars. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis additionally predicts that the intervening 'transitional' periods, which are characterized by the disappearance and subsequent sign change of dL/dt, may be unfavorable for the occurrence of GDS, when they occur during the southern summer dust storm season. These hypotheses are strongly supported by comparisons between calculated dynamical time series of dL/dt and historic observations. All of the nine known global-scale dust storms on Mars took place during Mars years when circulatory intensification during the dust storm season is 'retrodicted' under the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis. None of the historic global-scale dust storms of our catalog occurred during transitional intervals. Orbit-spin coupling appears to play an important role in the excitation of the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of Mars.

Shallow water observations of the bottom boundary during an energetic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheremet, A.; Klammer, H.; Calantoni, J.

2016-12-01

We report high-resolution field observations collected at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility, Duck, NC from 26 January - 10 March 2015. The experiment deployed two instrument arrays near the 6-m and 8-m isobaths that included acoustic Doppler current profilers, acoustic Doppler velocimeters, pressure and CTD sensors to monitor waves, currents, turbulence, temperature, conductivity and suspended sediment concentration at high temporal and vertical resolution. Additionally, munitions, or "targets", were deployed that spanned a range of sizes and densities with munitions mobility and burial monitored continuously at the 8-m array with sector scanning sonars and at the 6-m array with a pencil beam sonar. The roughly 6-week long experiment observed a sequence of at least 10 winter storm events, six of which were characterized by significant wave heights exceeding 2 m at the 8-m instrument array, with peak periods typically around 10 s. During the strongest storm from 10 - 15 February 2015, waves at the 8-m array had peak periods around 14 s and significant wave heights exceeding 2 m for more than 3 days, with significant wave heights exceeding 5 m at the peak of activity. Despite the tremendous amount of hydrodynamic activity bathymetric surveys performed on 16 January 2015 (before) and 17 March 2015 (after) the experiment showed only 5 - 10 cm variation in bed elevation at the 8-m array, suggesting that the local gradients in sediment transport were nearly negligible. Additionally, time series of tilt and heading sensors indicated periods of "jacking" of the instrument frame that was initially moored using four pipes, about 3 m in length, jetted into the seafloor, while some targets were found buried up to 60 cm deep. We will present a detailed analysis of the near-bed hydrodynamics during the most energetic storm and present a simple model to explain the observed burial depths of targets.

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. Formore » non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.« less

Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.

Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2017-01-01

This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documented a wide range of barrier island responses to storms and long-term processes that are representative of barrier island behaviour at many other locations. These islands are low elevation, extremely vulnerable to storms and exhibit a diversity of storm responses. Additionally, this location experiences a moderately high rate of relative sea-level rise, increasing its vulnerability to the combined impacts of storms and long-term erosional processes. Understanding how natural processes, including storm impacts and intervening recovery periods interact with man-made restoration processes is also broadly relevant to understand the natural and human response to future storms.

Invetigation of Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances during the Memorial Day Weekend Geomagnetic Storm of 27 - 28 OF may, 2017 Over North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonah, O. F.; Coster, A. J.; Zhang, S.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Bhatt, A.; Kendall, E. A.

2017-12-01

Using the large GNSS network over North America (70 - 125oW and 25 - 50oN) with a spatial resolution of 0.1 x 0.1o in latitude and longitude and temporal resolution of 1min, we investigate the ionospheric perturbations associated with Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs) on 2017 Memorial Day weekend's geomagnetic storm that occurred on the 27 and 28 of May, 2017. Our results were compared with images from the Mid-latitude All-Sky-imager Network for GeoSpace Observation (MANGO) and radio occultation satellite data. The storm was intense, featuring a southward interplanetary field (Bz) below 20 nT for about 4 hr, with a strong increase in the AE from 200 to 1300 nT and the Dst and kp indies were below 120 nT, and above 7 units, respectively. Both medium and large scale TIDs were observed, and their velocity, wavelength, wavefront and period throughout the storm are analyzed. Results show the presence of both poleward and equator-ward propagation of the TIDs. The features of TIDs obtained from keograms and 2-D TEC maps from GNSS-TEC are compared with those obtained from the all-sky imaging system during storm period. Finally, we compared the behavior of TIDs during Memorial Day weekend geomagnetic storm with the TIDs during the May quiet periods.

Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

DOE PAGES

Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; ...

2017-05-19

Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. Formore » non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.« less

Run-up parameterization and beach vulnerability assessment on a barrier island: a downscaling approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medellín, G.; Brinkkemper, J. A.; Torres-Freyermuth, A.; Appendini, C. M.; Mendoza, E. T.; Salles, P.

2016-01-01

We present a downscaling approach for the study of wave-induced extreme water levels at a location on a barrier island in Yucatán (Mexico). Wave information from a 30-year wave hindcast is validated with in situ measurements at 8 m water depth. The maximum dissimilarity algorithm is employed for the selection of 600 representative cases, encompassing different combinations of wave characteristics and tidal level. The selected cases are propagated from 8 m water depth to the shore using the coupling of a third-generation wave model and a phase-resolving non-hydrostatic nonlinear shallow-water equation model. Extreme wave run-up, R2%, is estimated for the simulated cases and can be further employed to reconstruct the 30-year time series using an interpolation algorithm. Downscaling results show run-up saturation during more energetic wave conditions and modulation owing to tides. The latter suggests that the R2% can be parameterized using a hyperbolic-like formulation with dependency on both wave height and tidal level. The new parametric formulation is in agreement with the downscaling results (r2 = 0.78), allowing a fast calculation of wave-induced extreme water levels at this location. Finally, an assessment of beach vulnerability to wave-induced extreme water levels is conducted at the study area by employing the two approaches (reconstruction/parameterization) and a storm impact scale. The 30-year extreme water level hindcast allows the calculation of beach vulnerability as a function of return periods. It is shown that the downscaling-derived parameterization provides reasonable results as compared with the numerical approach. This methodology can be extended to other locations and can be further improved by incorporating the storm surge contributions to the extreme water level.

Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.

2017-04-01

In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

Multiobjective optimization of low impact development stormwater controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckart, Kyle; McPhee, Zach; Bolisetti, Tirupati

2018-07-01

Green infrastructure such as Low Impact Development (LID) controls are being employed to manage the urban stormwater and restore the predevelopment hydrological conditions besides improving the stormwater runoff water quality. Since runoff generation and infiltration processes are nonlinear, there is a need for identifying optimal combination of LID controls. A coupled optimization-simulation model was developed by linking the U.S. EPA Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) to the Borg Multiobjective Evolutionary Algorithm (Borg MOEA). The coupled model is capable of performing multiobjective optimization which uses SWMM simulations as a tool to evaluate potential solutions to the optimization problem. The optimization-simulation tool was used to evaluate low impact development (LID) stormwater controls. A SWMM model was developed, calibrated, and validated for a sewershed in Windsor, Ontario and LID stormwater controls were tested for three different return periods. LID implementation strategies were optimized using the optimization-simulation model for five different implementation scenarios for each of the three storm events with the objectives of minimizing peak flow in the stormsewers, reducing total runoff, and minimizing cost. For the sewershed in Windsor, Ontario, the peak run off and total volume of the runoff were found to reduce by 13% and 29%, respectively.

XBeach and CSHORE Numerical Model Assessment of the Beach and Foredune Morphodynamic Response of a Barrier Island during Hurricane Storm Surge Inundation - Folletts Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figlus, J.

2016-02-01

More than 400 barrier islands line the United States coasts providing a first line of defense against surge and wave attack during extreme storm events. While some pre- and post-storm topography and bathymetry data of barrier islands inundated during a storm exist, very little information is available to help understand the complex hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes during storm impact. These processes are crucial to understanding sediment budgets, potential threats to infrastructure and best coastal management practices for specific locations. Follett's Island (FI) is a low-lying sediment-starved barrier island located on the Upper Texas Coast, a stretch of coastline along the Gulf of Mexico experiencing on average four hurricanes and four tropical cyclones per decade. During Hurricane Ike, water levels and wave heights at FI exceeded the 100-year and 40-year return values, respectively. This caused the island to undergo a sequence of four distinct interaction regimes, including impact, overtopping, inundation, and storm surge ebb. Each regime caused unique morphology changes to the island. The physical processes governing the real-time morphodynamic response of the beach and dune system during 96 hours of hurricane impact were modeled using XBeach (2D) and CSHORE (1D). Hydrodynamic boundary conditions were obtained from ADCIRC/SWAN model runs validated with measured buoy and wave gauge data while LiDAR surveys provided pre- and post-storm measured topography. XBeach displayed a decent model skill and was very useful in qualitatively visualizing erosion and deposition patterns during each regime. CSHORE also displayed a decent model skill and was able to accurately predict the post-storm beach slope and shoreline, but was less effective at simulating the foredune morphology. Modeling results show that the complete morphodynamic response of FI to Hurricane Ike was far more complex than suggested by only before and after storm topography surveys.

Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E.; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-01-01

Storm surge is an important factor that contributes to coastal flooding and erosion. Storm surge magnitude along eastern North Pacific coasts results primarily from low sea level pressure (SLP). Thus, coastal regions where high surge occurs identify the dominant locations where intense storms make landfall, controlled by storm track across the North Pacific. Here storm surge variability along the Pacific coast of North America is characterized by positive nontide residuals at a network of tide gauge stations from southern California to Alaska. The magnitudes of mean and extreme storm surge generally increase from south to north, with typically high amplitude surge north of Cape Mendocino and lower surge to the south. Correlation of mode 1 nontide principal component (PC1) during winter months (December-February) with anomalous SLP over the northeast Pacific indicates that the dominant storm landfall region is along the Cascadia/British Columbia coast. Although empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns show substantial interannual variability, similar correlation patterns of nontide PC1 over the 1948-1975 and 1983-2014 epochs with anomalous SLP suggest that, when considering decadal-scale time periods, storm surge and associated tracks have generally not changed appreciably since 1948. Nontide PC1 is well correlated with PC1 of both anomalous SLP and modeled wave height near the tide gauge stations, reflecting the interrelationship between storms, surge, and waves. Weaker surge south of Cape Mendocino during the 2015-2016 El Niño compared with 1982-1983 may result from changes in Hadley circulation. Importantly from a coastal impacts perspective, extreme storm surge events are often accompanied by high waves.

Upper-level eddy angular momentum fluxes and tropical cyclone intensity change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Demaria, Mark; Baik, Jong-Jin; Kaplan, John

1993-01-01

The eddy flux convergence of relative angular momentum (EFC) at 200 mb was calculated for the named tropical cyclones during the 1989-1991 Atlantic hurricane seasons. A period of enhanced EFC within 1500 km of the storm center occurred about every five days due to the interaction with upper-level troughs in the midlatitude westerlies or upper-level, cold lows in low latitudes. Twenty-six of the 32 storms had at least one period of enhanced EFC. In about one-third of the cases, the storm intensified just after the period of enhanced EFC. In most of the cases in which the storm did not intensify the vertical shear increased, the storm moved over cold water, or the storm became extratropical just after the period of enhanced EFC. A statistically significant relationship was found between the EFC within 600 km of the storm center and the intensity change during the next 48 h. The EFC was also examined for the ten storms from the 1989-1991 sample that had the largest intensification rates. Six of the ten periods of rapid intensification were associated with enhanced EFC. In the remaining four cases the storms were intensifying rapidly in a low shear environment without any obvious interaction with upper-level troughs.

Use of a geomorphological transfer function to model design floods in small hillside catchments in semiarid Tunisia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasri, S.; Cudennec, C.; Albergel, J.; Berndtsson, R.

2004-02-01

In the beginning of the 1990s, the Tunisian Ministry of Agriculture launched an ambitious program for constructing small hillside reservoirs in the northern and central region of the country. At present, more than 720 reservoirs have been created. They consist of small compacted earth dams supplied with a horizontal overflow weir. Due to lack of hydrological data and the area's extreme floods, however, it is very difficult to design the overflow weirs. Also, catchments are very sensitive to erosion and the reservoirs are rapidly silted up. Consequently, prediction of flood volumes for important rainfall events becomes crucial. Few hydrological observations, however, exist for the catchment areas. For this purpose a geomorphological model methodology is presented to predict shape and volume of hydrographs for important floods. This model is built around a production function that defines the net storm rainfall (portion of rainfall during a storm which reaches a stream channel as direct runoff) from the total rainfall (observed rainfall in the catchment) and a transfer function based on the most complete possible definition of the surface drainage system. Observed rainfall during 5-min time steps was used in the model. The model runoff generation is based on surface drainage characteristics which can be easily extracted from maps. The model was applied to two representative experimental catchments in central Tunisia. The conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on surface topography and drainage network was seen to reproduce observed runoff satisfactory. The calibrated model was used to estimate runoff from 5, 10, 20, and 50 year rainfall return periods regarding runoff volume, maximum runoff, as well as the general shape of the runoff hydrograph. Practical conclusions to design hill reservoirs and to extrapolate results using this model methodology for ungauged small catchments in semiarid Tunisia are made.

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Storm surges and coastal impacts at Mar del Plata, Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiore, Mónica M. E.; D'Onofrio, Enrique E.; Pousa, Jorge L.; Schnack, Enrique J.; Bértola, Germán R.

2009-07-01

Positive storm surges (PSS) lasting for several days can raise the water level producing significant differences between the observed level and the astronomical tide. These storm events can be more severe if they coincide with a high tide or if they bracket several tidal cycles, particularly in the case of the highest astronomical tide. Besides, the abnormal sea-level elevation near the coast can cause the highest waves generated to attack the upper beach. This combination of factors can produce severe erosion, threatening sectors located along the coastline. These effects would be more serious if the storm surge height and duration increase as a result of a climatic change. The Mar del Plata (Argentina) coastline and adjacent areas are exposed to such effects. A statistical characterization of PSS based on their intensity, duration and frequency, including a surge event classification, was performed utilizing tide-gauge records over the period 1956-2005. A storm erosion potential index (SEPI) was calculated from observed levels based on hourly water level measurements. The index was related to beach profile responses to storm events. Also, a return period for extreme SEPI values was calculated. Results show an increase in the average number of positive storm surge events per decade. Considering all the events, the last decade (1996-2005) exhibits an average 7% increase compared to each one of the previous decades. A similar behavior was found for the decadal average of the heights of maximum annual positive storm surges. In this case the average height of the last two decades exceeds that of the previous decades by approximately 8 cm. The decadal average of maximum annual duration of these meteorological events shows an increase of 2 h in the last three decades. A possible explanation of the changes in frequency, height and duration of positive storm surges at Mar del Plata would seem to lie in the relative mean sea-level rise.

Observations of lightning in convective supercells within tropical storms and hurricanes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lyons, W.A.; Keen, C.S.

1994-08-01

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning observations from land-based lightning detection networks now allow monitoring this component of the electrical structure of tropical storms and hurricanes within a few hundred kilometers of the United States coastline. Several case studies confirm the long-held opinion that lightning is rather common within the outer rainbands. The general absence of CG lightning within the interior of mature tropical cyclones is also apparent. On the other hand, bursts of CG lightning near the circulation center of developing storms appear to precede periods of further deepening. The CG events are associated with convective supercells, whose anvil canopies can oftenmore » obscure much of the underlying storm. Near-eyewall CG bursts preceding periods of intensification were noted in Hurricanes Diana (1984) and Florence (1988). A detailed case study of the 1987 unnamed tropical storm that struck the Texas-Louisiana coastline reveals that lightning was associated with two large supercells. These supercells appeared to be the trigger for the development of a closed circulation that formed several hours after the apparent low pressure center made landfall. Further studies of lightning may provide additional insight into the role of convective supercells in tropical storm intensification. It may also provide a useful diagnostic of impending deepening.« less

A kinetic energy study of the meso beta-scale storm environment during AVE-SESAME 5 (20-21 May 1979)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Printy, M. F.; Fuelberg, H. E.

1984-01-01

Kinetic energy of the near storm environment was analyzed by meso beta scale data. It was found that horizontal winds in the 400 to 150 mb layer strengthen rapidly north of the developing convection. Peak values then decrease such that the maximum disappears 6 h later. Southeast of the storms, wind speeds above 300 mb decrease nearly 50% during the 3 h period of most intense thunderstorm activity. When the convection dissipates, wind patterns return to prestorm conditions. The mesoscale storm environment of AVE-SESAME 5 is characterized by large values of cross contour generation of kinetic energy, transfers of energy to nonresolvable scales of motion, and horizontal flux divergence. These processes are maximized within the upper troposphere and are greatest during times of strongest convection. It is shown that patterns agree with observed weather features. The southeast area of the network is examined to determine causes for vertical wind variations.

The case for a southeastern Australian Dust Bowl, 1895-1945

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cattle, Stephen R.

2016-06-01

Australia has an anecdotal history of severe wind erosion and dust storm activity, but there has been no lasting public perception of periods of extreme dust storm activity in this country, such as that developed in the USA following the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. Newspaper accounts of droughts and dust storms in southeastern (SE) Australia between 1895 and 1945 suggest that, at various times, the scale of these events was comparable to those experienced in the USA Dust Bowl. During this 50-year period, average annual rainfall values in this region were substantially below long-term averages, air temperatures were distinctly warmer, marginal lands were actively cropped and grazed, and rabbits were a burgeoning grazing pest. From the beginning of the Federation Drought of 1895-1902, dust storm activity increased markedly, with the downwind coastal cities of Sydney and Melbourne experiencing dust hazes, dust storms and falls of red rain relatively regularly. Between 1935 and 1945, Sydney and Melbourne received ten and nine long-distance dust events, respectively, with the years of 1938 and 1944/45 being the most intensely dusty. Entire topsoil horizons were blown away, sand drift was extreme, and crops and sheep flocks were destroyed. Although these periods of extreme dust storm activity were not as sustained as those experienced in the USA in the mid-1930s, there is a strong case to support the contention that SE Australia experienced its own extended, somewhat episodic version of a Dust Bowl, with a similar combination of causal factors and landscape effects.

Development of methods for improving levels 1 and 2 met/ocean parameter predictions

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

The prediction of storm surge and wave forces and moments on bridges requires knowledge of design (100-year) water levels and wave heights and periods (met/ocean conditions) as well as bridge dimensions, elevation, orientation, etc. The American Asso...

Contribution of recent hurricanes to wetland sedimentation in coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Kam-biu; Bianchette, Thomas; Zou, Lei; Qiang, Yi; Lam, Nina

2017-04-01

Hurricanes are important agents of sediment deposition in the wetlands of coastal Louisiana. Since Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005, coastal Louisiana has been impacted by Hurricanes Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), and Isaac (2012). By employing the principles and methods of paleotempestology we have identified the storm deposits attributed to the three most recent hurricanes in several coastal lakes and swamps in Louisiana. However, the spatial distribution and volume of these storm depositions cannot be easily inferred from stratigraphic data derived from a few locations. Here we report on results from a GIS study to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of storm deposition based on data extracted from the voluminous CRMS (Coastal Reference Monitoring System) database, which contains vertical accretion rate measurements obtained from 390 wetland sites over various time intervals during the past decade. Wetland accretion rates averaged about 2.89 cm/yr from stations sampled before Hurricane Isaac, 4.04 cm/yr during the 7-month period encompassing Isaac, and 2.38 cm/yr from sites established and sampled after Isaac. Generally, the wetland accretion rates attributable to the Isaac effects were 40% and 70% greater than before and after the event, respectively. Accretion rates associated with Isaac were highest at wetland sites along the Mississippi River and its tributaries instead of along the path of the hurricane, suggesting that freshwater flooding from fluvial channels, enhanced by the storm surge from the sea, is the main mechanism responsible for increased accretion in the wetlands. Our GIS work has recently been expanded to include other recent hurricanes. Preliminary results indicate that, for non-storm periods, the average wetland accretion rates between Katrina/Rita and Gustav/Ike was 2.58 cm/yr; that between Gustav/Ike and Isaac was 1.95 cm/yr; and that after Isaac was 2.37 cm/yr. In contrast, the accretion rates attributable to the effects of Gustav/Ike and Isaac were 4.41 cm/yr and 3.52 cm/yr, respectively. These results show that hurricane-related accretion rates in wetlands are 50 - 225% higher than the normal rates typical of non-storm periods.

Contributions of human activities to suspended sediment yield during storm events from a small, steep, tropical watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Messina, A. M.; Biggs, T. W.

2016-07-01

Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) and yields (SSY) were measured during storm and non-storm periods from undisturbed and human-disturbed portions of a small (1.8 km2), mountainous watershed that drains to a sediment-stressed coral reef. Event-wise SSY (SSYEV) was calculated for 142 storms from measurements of water discharge (Q), turbidity (T), and SSC measured downstream of three key sediment sources: undisturbed forest, an aggregate quarry, and a village. SSC and SSYEV were significantly higher downstream of the quarry during both storm- and non-storm periods. The human-disturbed subwatershed (10.1% disturbed) accounted for an average of 87% of SSYEV from the watershed. Observed sediment yield (mass) to the coast, including human disturbed subwatersheds, was 3.9× the natural background. Specific SSY (mass/area) from the disturbed quarry area was 49× higher than from natural forest compared with 8× higher from the village area. Similar to mountainous watersheds in semi-arid and temperate climates, SSYEV from both the undisturbed and disturbed watersheds correlated closely with maximum event discharge (Qmax), event total precipitation and event total Q, but not with the Erosivity Index. Best estimates of annual SSY varied by method, from 45 to 143 tons/km2/yr from the undisturbed subwatershed, 441-598 tons/km2/yr from the human-disturbed subwatershed, and 241-368 tons/km2/yr from the total watershed. Sediment yield was very sensitive to disturbance; the quarry covers 1.1% of the total watershed area, but contributed 36% of SSYEV. Given the limited access to gravel for infrastructure development, sediment disturbance from local aggregate mining may be a critical sediment source on remote islands in the Pacific and elsewhere. Identification of erosion hotspots like the quarry using rapid, event-wise measures of suspended sediment yield will help efforts to mitigate sediment stress and restore coral reefs.

27 CFR 40.163 - Semimonthly tax return periods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... section 40.164, the periods to be covered by semimonthly tax returns shall be from the 1st day of each month through the 15th day of that month and from the 16th day of each month through the last day of that month. [T.D. ATF-365, 60 FR 33675, June 28, 1995] ...

Financial fluctuations anchored to economic fundamentals: A mesoscopic network approach.

PubMed

Sharma, Kiran; Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal; Chakrabarti, Anindya S; Chakraborti, Anirban

2017-08-14

We demonstrate the existence of an empirical linkage between nominal financial networks and the underlying economic fundamentals, across countries. We construct the nominal return correlation networks from daily data to encapsulate sector-level dynamics and infer the relative importance of the sectors in the nominal network through measures of centrality and clustering algorithms. Eigenvector centrality robustly identifies the backbone of the minimum spanning tree defined on the return networks as well as the primary cluster in the multidimensional scaling map. We show that the sectors that are relatively large in size, defined with three metrics, viz., market capitalization, revenue and number of employees, constitute the core of the return networks, whereas the periphery is mostly populated by relatively smaller sectors. Therefore, sector-level nominal return dynamics are anchored to the real size effect, which ultimately shapes the optimal portfolios for risk management. Our results are reasonably robust across 27 countries of varying degrees of prosperity and across periods of market turbulence (2008-09) as well as periods of relative calmness (2012-13 and 2015-16).

Sensitivity Analysis of Expected Wind Extremes over the Northwestern Sahara and High Atlas Region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Bustamante, E.; González-Rouco, F. J.; Navarro, J.

2017-12-01

A robust statistical framework in the scientific literature allows for the estimation of probabilities of occurrence of severe wind speeds and wind gusts, but does not prevent however from large uncertainties associated with the particular numerical estimates. An analysis of such uncertainties is thus required. A large portion of this uncertainty arises from the fact that historical observations are inherently shorter that the timescales of interest for the analysis of return periods. Additional uncertainties stem from the different choices of probability distributions and other aspects related to methodological issues or physical processes involved. The present study is focused on historical observations over the Ouarzazate Valley (Morocco) and in a high-resolution regional simulation of the wind in the area of interest. The aim is to provide extreme wind speed and wind gust return values and confidence ranges based on a systematic sampling of the uncertainty space for return periods up to 120 years.

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Geomagnetic Storm Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Minow, Joseph I.; Parker, Neergaard

2013-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) space environments community utilizes near real time space weather data to support a variety of ISS engineering and science activities. The team has operated the Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) suite of plasma instruments (two Langmuir probes, a floating potential probe, and a plasma impedance probe) on ISS since 2006 to obtain in-situ measurements of plasma density and temperature along the ISS orbit and variations in ISS frame potential due to electrostatic current collection from the plasma environment (spacecraft charging) and inductive (vxB) effects from the vehicle motion across the Earth s magnetic field. An ongoing effort is to use FPMU for measuring the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms at ISS altitudes and investigate auroral charging of the vehicle as it passes through regions of precipitating auroral electrons. This work is challenged by restrictions on FPMU operations that limit observation time to less than about a third of a year. As a result, FPMU campaigns ranging in length from a few days to a few weeks are typically scheduled weeks in advance for ISS engineering and payload science activities. In order to capture geomagnetic storm data under these terms, we monitor near real time space weather data from NASA, NOAA, and ESA sources to determine solar wind disturbance arrival times at Earth likely to be geoeffective (including coronal mass ejections and high speed streams associated with coronal holes) and activate the FPMU ahead of the storm onset. Using this technique we have successfully captured FPMU data during a number of geomagnetic storm periods including periods with ISS auroral charging. This presentation will describe the strategies and challenges in capturing FPMU data during geomagnetic storms, the near real time space weather resources utilized for monitoring the space weather environment, and provide examples of auroral charging data obtained during storm operations.

Effects of best-management practices in Bower Creek in the East River priority watershed, Wisconsin, 1991-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corsi, Steven R.; Horwatich, Judy A.; Rutter, Troy D.; Bannerman, Roger T.

2013-01-01

Hydrologic and water-quality data were collected at Bower Creek during the periods before best-management practices (BMPs), and after BMPs were installed for evaluation of water-quality improvements. The monitoring was done between 1990 and 2009 with the pre-BMP period ending in July 1994 and the post-BMP period beginning in October 2006. BMPs installed in this basin included streambank protection and fencing, stream crossings, grade stabilization, buffer strips, various barnyard-runoff controls, nutrient management, and a low degree of upland BMPs. Water-quality evaluations included base-flow concentrations and storm loads for total suspended solids, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen. The only reductions detected between the base-flow samples of the pre- and post-BMP periods were in median concentrations of total phosphorus from base-flow samples, but not for total suspended solids or dissolved ammonia nitrogen. Differences in storm loads for the three water-quality constituents monitored were not observed during the study period.

Precipitation data considerations for evaluating subdaily changes in rainless periods due to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying magnitudes and frequencies of rainless times between storms (TBS), or storm occurrence, is required for generating continuous sequences of precipitation for modeling inputs to small watershed models for conservation studies. Two parameters characterize TBS, minimum TBS (MTBS) and averag...

Surge Driven Return Flow Results in Deposition of Coarse Grain Horizons Archiving a 4000 Year Record of Extreme Storm Events, Cape Cod, Massachusetts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maio, C. V.; Donnelly, J. P.; Sullivan, R.; Weidman, C. R.; Sheremet, V.

2014-12-01

The brevity of the instrumental record and lack of detailed historical accounts is a limiting factor in our understanding of the relationship between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme storm events. This study applied paleotempestologic and hydrographic methods to identify the mechanisms of storm-induced coarse grain deposition and reconstruct a late Holocene storm record within Waquoit Bay, Massachusetts. Three sediment cores (6.0 m, 8.4 m, and 8.2 m) were collected in 3 m of water using a vibracore system. Grain sizes were measured along core to identify coarse grain anomalies that serve as a proxy for past storm events. An historical age model (1620-2011 AD) was developed based on Pb pollution chronomarkers derived from X-Ray Florescence bulk Pb data, equating to a sedimentation rate of 8-8.3 mm/yr (R2 = 0.99). A long-term (4000 to 275 years before present) sedimentation rate of 1.1-1.4 mm/yr (R2 = 0.89) was calculated based on twenty-four continuous flow atomic mass spectrometry 14C ages of marine bivalves. To determine hydrographic conditions within the embayment during storm events current meters and tide gauges were deployed during Hurricane Irene (2011) which measured a storm surge of 88 cm above mean sea level. The buildup of storm water against the landward shoreline resulted in a measured 10 cm/s seaward moving bottom current capable of transporting coarse sand eroded from the adjacent shoreface into the coring site. Modeled surges for eleven modern and historic storm events ranged in height from 0.37 m (2011) to 3.72 m (1635) above mean high water. The WAQ1, WAQ2, and WAQ3 cores recorded a total of 89, 139, and 137 positive anomalies that exceeded the lower threshold and 15, 34, and 12 that exceeded the upper threshold respectively. Events recorded during the historic period coincide with documented storm events. The mean frequency within the three cores applying the lower threshold was 2.6 events per century, while applying the upper threshold was 0.44 events per century. The study has identified a previously understudied transport mechanism for the formation of storm-induced coarse grain horizons and highlighted some of the challenges to utilizing shallow water embayments as sites for storm reconstructions.

Detection and analysis of radio frequency lightning emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jalali, F.

1982-01-01

The feasibility study of detection of lightning discharges from a geosynchronous satellite requires adequate ground-based information regarding emission characteristics. In this investigation, a measurement system for collection of S-band emission data is set up and calibrated, and the operations procedures for rapid data collection during a storm activity developed. The system collects emission data in two modes; a digitized, high-resolution, short duration record stored in solid-state memory, and a continuous long-duration record on magnetic tape. Representative lightning flash data are shown. Preliminary results indicate appreciable RF emissions at 2 gHz from both the leader and return strokes portions of the cloud-to-ground discharge with strong peaks associated with the return strokes.

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE PAGES

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie; ...

2016-11-08

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards Outlooks.

Problems and Prospects of SWAT Model Application on an Arid/Semi-Arid Watershed in Arizona

EPA Science Inventory

In arid/semi-arid regions, precipitation mainly occurs during two periods: long-duration, low-intensity rainfall in winter; and short-duration, high-intensity rainfall in summer. Watersheds in arid/semi-arid regions often release water almost immediately after a storm due to spa...

Impact of varying storm intensity and consecutive dry days on grassland soil moisture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Intra-annual precipitation patterns are expected to shift toward more intense storms and longer dry periods due to changes in climate within the next decades. Using satellite-derived estimates of plant growth data from 2000-2012, this study quantified the relationship between intra-annual precipitat...

Projected changes to short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masud, M. B.; Khaliq, M. N.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-09-01

The effects of climate change on April-October short- and long-duration precipitation extremes over the Canadian Prairie Provinces were evaluated using a multi-Regional Climate Model (RCM) ensemble available through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Simulations considered include those performed with six RCMs driven by the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis II product for the 1981-2000 period and those driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) for the current 1971-2000 and future 2041-2070 periods (i.e. a total of 11 current-to-future period simulation pairs). A regional frequency analysis approach was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, and 50-year return values of precipitation extremes from NCEP and AOGCM-driven current and future period simulations that respectively were used to study the performance of RCMs and projected changes for selected return values at regional, grid-cell and local scales. Performance errors due to internal dynamics and physics of RCMs studied for the 1981-2000 period reveal considerable variation in the performance of the RCMs. However, the performance errors were found to be much smaller for RCM ensemble averages than for individual RCMs. Projected changes in future climate to selected regional return values of short-duration (e.g. 15- and 30-min) precipitation extremes and for longer return periods (e.g. 50-year) were found to be mostly larger than those to the longer duration (e.g. 24- and 48-h) extremes and short return periods (e.g. 2-year). Overall, projected changes in precipitation extremes were larger for southeastern regions followed by southern and northern regions and smaller for southwestern and western regions of the study area. The changes to return values were also found to be statistically significant for the majority of the RCM-AOGCM simulation pairs. These projections might be useful as a key input for the future planning of urban drainage infrastructure and development of strategic climate change adaptation measures.

Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura; Li, Chao; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Marotzke, Jochem

2018-06-01

We use the 100-member Grand Ensemble with the climate model MPI-ESM to evaluate the controllability of mean and extreme European summer temperatures with the global mean temperature targets in the Paris Agreement. We find that European summer temperatures at 2 °C of global warming are on average 1 °C higher than at 1.5 °C of global warming with respect to pre-industrial levels. In a 2 °C warmer world, one out of every two European summer months would be warmer than ever observed in our current climate. Daily maximum temperature anomalies for extreme events with return periods of up to 500 years reach return levels of 7 °C at 2 °C of global warming and 5.5 °C at 1.5 °C of global warming. The largest differences in return levels for shorter return periods of 20 years are over southern Europe, where we find the highest mean temperature increase. In contrast, for events with return periods of over 100 years these differences are largest over central Europe, where we find the largest changes in temperature variability. However, due to the large effect of internal variability, only four out of every ten summer months in a 2 °C warmer world present mean temperatures that could be distinguishable from those in a 1.5 °C world. The distinguishability between the two climates is largest over southern Europe, while decreasing to around 10% distinguishable months over eastern Europe. Furthermore, we find that 10% of the most extreme and severe summer maximum temperatures in a 2 °C world could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.

Are the Leonid Meteor Storms Coming?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeomans, D. K.; Yau, K.; Weissman, P. R.

1995-01-01

On Nov. 17, 1996 an extraordinary Leonid meteor storm (144,000 per hour) was witnessed by observers in central and western United States. With an orbital period of 33 years, the next return to perihelion will be Feb. 28, 1998. Because the distribution of the particles flying in formation with the parent comet is poorly known, no secure predictions can be made for Leonid meteor storms in the coming years.

Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Streby, Henry M.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Buehler, David A.; Andersen, David E.

2015-01-01

Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods. Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle). During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail, and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered. However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods. Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms, perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements, is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses, understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Sastry, Narayan; VanLandingham, Mark

2010-01-01

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period. PMID:20440381

Accuracy of EAARL lidar ground elevations using a bare-earth algorithm in marsh and beach grasses on the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Reynolds, Billy J.; Wright, C. Wayne

2010-01-01

The NASA Experimental Advanced Airborne Lidar (EAARL) is an airborne lidar (light detection and ranging) instrument designed to map coastal topography and bathymetry. The EAARL system has the capability to capture each laser-pulse return over a large signal range and can digitize the full waveform of the backscattered energy. Because of this ability to capture the full waveform, the EAARL system can map features such as coral reefs, beaches, coastal vegetation, and trees, where extreme variations in the laser backscatter are caused by different physical and optical characteristics. Post-processing of the EAARL data is accomplished using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS) (Nayegandhi and others, 2009). In ALPS, the waveform of the lidar is analyzed and split into first and last returns. The 'first returns' are indicative of vegetation-canopy height, or bare ground in the absence of vegetation, whereas 'last returns' typically represent 'bare-earth' elevations under vegetation. To test the accuracy of the first-return and bare-earth EAARL data, topographic and vegetation height surveys were conducted in the Chandeleur Islands, concurrent with an EAARL lidar survey and an aerial oblique-photographic survey from September 20 to 27, 2006. The Chandeleur Islands are a north-south-oriented chain of low-lying islands located approximately 100 kilometers east of the city of New Orleans, Louisiana. The islands are narrow north-south strips of land with marsh on the landward (west sides) and sandy beaches on their gulfward (east sides). Prior to Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall at Buras, Louisiana, as a Category 3 storm on August 29, 2005, prominent, 3- to 4-meter-high sand dunes were present in the northern Chandeleurs. The storm removed them, leaving post-storm island elevations of generally less than 2 meters above 0.0 NAVD88. This report is part of a study of the impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Chandeleur Islands using pre-storm and post-storm lidar surveys to detect morphological changes. The islands lost over 80 percent of their land area during Hurricane Katrina, and in the first 2 years following Katrina, many of the islands experienced continued shoreline retreat (Sallenger and others, 2007). In addition to land-area losses, the loss of dunes made the islands increasingly vulnerable to future storm impacts. The U.S. Geological Survey, along with partners in the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, continues to monitor changes in shoreline position, land area, and elevation in the Chandeleur Islands.

Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds.

PubMed

Streby, Henry M; Kramer, Gunnar R; Peterson, Sean M; Lehman, Justin A; Buehler, David A; Andersen, David E

2015-01-05

Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods. Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle). During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail, and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered. However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods. Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms, perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements, is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses, understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate, not conflict, explains extreme Middle East dust storm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Parolari, Anthony J.; Li, Dan; Bou-Zeid, Elie

The recent dust storm in the Middle East (Sepember 2015) was publicized in the media as a sign of an impending 'Dust Bowl.' Its severity, demonstrated by extreme aerosol optical depth in the atmosphere in the 99th percentile compared to historical data, was attributed to the ongoing regional conflict. However, surface meteorological and remote sensing data, as well as regional climate model simulations, support an alternative hypothesis: the historically unprecedented aridity played a more prominent role, as evidenced by unusual climatic and meteorological conditions prior to and during the storm. Remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index demonstrates that vegetation covermore » was high in 2015 relative to the prior drought and conflict periods, suggesting that agricultural activity was not diminished during that year, thus negating the media narrative. Instead, meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model show that the storm was associated with a cyclone and 'Shamal' winds, typical for dust storm generation in this region, that were immediately followed by an unusual wind reversal at low levels that spread dust west to the Mediterranean Coast. These unusual meteorological conditions were aided by a significant reduction in the critical shear stress due to extreme dry and hot conditions, thereby enhancing dust availability for erosion during this storm. Concluding, unusual aridity, combined with unique synoptic weather patterns, enhanced dust emission and westward long-range transport across the region, thus generating the extreme storm.« less

Ontogeny of Foraging Competence in Capuchin Monkeys (Cebus capucinus) for Easy versus Difficult to Acquire Fruits: A Test of the Needing to Learn Hypothesis.

PubMed

Eadie, Elizabeth Christine

2015-01-01

Which factors select for long juvenile periods in some species is not well understood. One potential reason to delay the onset of reproduction is slow food acquisition rates, either due to competition (part of the ecological risk avoidance hypothesis), or due to a decreased foraging efficiency (a version of the needing to learn hypothesis). Capuchins provide a useful genus to test the needing to learn hypothesis because they are known for having long juvenile periods and a difficult-to-acquire diet. Generalized, linear, mixed models with data from 609 fruit forage focal follows on 49, habituated, wild Cebus capucinus were used to test two predictions from the needing-to-learn hypothesis as it applies to fruit foraging skills: 1) capuchin monkeys do not achieve adult foraging return rates for difficult-to-acquire fruits before late in the juvenile period; and 2) variance in return rates for these fruits is at least partially associated with differences in foraging skill. In support of the first prediction, adults, compared with all younger age classes, had significantly higher foraging return rates when foraging for fruits that were ranked as difficult-to-acquire (return rates relative to adults: 0.30-0.41, p-value range 0.008-0.016), indicating that the individuals in the group who have the most foraging experience also achieve the highest return rates. In contrast, and in support of the second prediction, there were no significant differences between age classes for fruits that were ranked as easy to acquire (return rates relative to adults: 0.97-1.42, p-value range 0.086-0.896), indicating that strength and/or skill are likely to affect return rates. In addition, fruits that were difficult to acquire were foraged at nearly identical rates by adult males and significantly smaller (and presumably weaker) adult females (males relative to females: 1.01, p = 0.978), while subadult females had much lower foraging efficiency than the similarly-sized but more experienced adult females (subadults relative to adults: 0.34, p = 0.052), indicating that skill, specifically, is likely to have an effect on return rates. These results are consistent with the needing to learn hypothesis and indicate that long juvenile periods in capuchins may be the result of selection for more time to learn foraging skills for difficult-to-acquire fruits.

Beam-return current systems in solar flares

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spicer, D. S.; Sudan, R. N.

1984-01-01

It is demonstrated that the common assumption made in solar flare beam transport theory that the beam-accompanied return current is purely electrostatically driven is incorrect, and that the return current is both electrostatically and inductively driven, in accordance with Lenz's law, with the inductive effects dominating for times greater than a few plasma periods. In addition, it is shown that a beam can only exist in a solar plasma for a finite time which is much smaller than the inductive return current dissipation time. The importance of accounting for the role of the acceleration mechanism in forming the beam is discussed. In addition, the role of return current driven anomalous resistivity and its subsequent anomalous Joule heating during the flare process is elucidated.

Joint projections of sea level and storm surge using a flood index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Little, C. M.; Lin, N.; Horton, R. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

2016-02-01

Capturing the joint influence of sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclones (TCs) on future coastal flood risk poses significant challenges. To address these difficulties, Little et al. (2015) use a proxy of tropical cyclone activity and a probabilistic flood index that aggregates flood height and duration over a wide area (the US East and Gulf coasts). This technique illuminates the individual impacts of TCs and SLR and their correlation across different coupled climate models. By 2080-2099, changes in the flood index relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range of 35-350x higher for a high-end business-as-usual emissions scenario (see figure). This aggregated flood index: 1) is a means to consistently combine TC-driven storm surges and SLR; 2) provides a more robust description of historical surge-climate relationships than is available at any one location; and 3) allows the incorporation of a larger climate model ensemble - which is critical to uncertainty characterization. It does not provide a local view of the complete spectrum of flood severity (i.e. return curves). However, alternate techniques that provide localized return curves (e.g. Lin et al., 2012) are computationally intensive, limiting the set of large-scale climate models that can be incorporated, and require several linked statistical and dynamical models, each with structural uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. Here, we present the results of Little et al. (2015) along with: 1) alternate formulations of the flood index; 2) strategies to localize the flood index; and 3) a comparison of flood index projections to those provided by model-based return curves. We look to this interdisciplinary audience for feedback on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool for coastal planning and decision-making. Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature Clim. Change, 2(6), 462-467. Little, C. M., R. M. Horton, R. E. Kopp, M. Oppenheimer, G. A. Vecchi, and G. Villarini, 2015: Joint projections of us east coast sea level and storm surge. Nature Clim. Change, advance online publication.

26 CFR 1.6038-2 - Information returns required of United States persons with respect to annual accounting periods...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

...) beginning after December 31, 1962, of each foreign corporation which that person controls (as defined in... defined in section 1504(d) of the Code which makes a consolidated return for the taxable year. The return... determining control as defined in paragraph (b) of this section. (d) U.S. person—(1) In general. For purposes...

Variations in storm response along a microtidal transgressive barrier-island arc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, J. H.; Roberts, H. H.

1982-10-01

Storm response along the transgressive Chandeleur barrier-island arc southeast of the Mississippi delta plain is variable because of local differences in sediment supply, shoreline orientation and barrier morphology. A study of the morphological impact of Hurricane Frederic (1979) affirmed that tropical storms are the primary agents causing erosion and migration of this barrier arc. Frederic's greatest impact was in the duneless southern Chandeleurs, where sheet-flow overwash caused flattening of the barrier profile, destruction of a strip of marsh 50-100 m wide, and shoreline retreat of approximately 30 m. In contrast, overwash in the northern Chandeleurs was confined between dunes in channels established by previous storms. This channelized overwash breached the northern Chandeleur barriers in nineteen places. As Frederic passed, return flow through these channels transported overwashed sediment back to the nearshore zone. These ebb deposits were a source for longshore drift sediments, which quickly sealed storm channels, reestablishing a coherent northern Chandeleur barrier arc. These storm response patterns may help explain long-term changes in barrier morphology. During an 84-yr period (1885-1969) the southern Chandeleurs decreased 41 % in area, with an average retreat rate of 9.1 m yr -1, compared to a 15% increase in area and an average shoreline retreat rate of 7.2 m yr -1 for the northern Chandeleurs.

Seasonal fluxes of native grass bud banks in response to season and return interval of fire in the Northern Great Plains

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Axillary buds play a fundamental role in perennial population persistence through regeneration of bud banks. However, fire could affect bud bank dynamics by altering the size and cycles of dormant and active periods. We examined impacts of fire return interval (1.5, 3, or 6 yr) and season of fire ...

Return to Work among Employees with Long-Term Sickness Absence in Eldercare: A Prospective Analysis of Register-Based Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clausen, Thomas; Friis Andersen, Malenea; Bang Christensen, Karl; Lund, Thomas

2011-01-01

This study investigates whether psychosocial work characteristics and work-related psychological states predict return to work (RTW) after long-term sickness absence among eldercare staff. We followed 9947 employees in a national register on payment of sickness-absence compensation for 1 year and found that 598 employees had absence periods of 8…

A kinetic energy analysis of the meso beta-scale severe storm environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.; Printy, M. F.

1984-01-01

Analyses are performed of the meso beta-scale (20-200 km wavelengths and several hours to one-day periods) severe storm kinetic energy balance on the fifth day of the AVE SESAME campaign of May 1979. A 24-hr interval covering the antecedent, active and post-convective outbreak activity over Oklahoma are considered. Use is made of the kinetic energy budget equation (KEBE) for a finite volume in an isobaric coordinate system. Rawindsonde data with 75 km resolution were treated. The KEBE model covered changes in kinetic energy due to the cross contour flows, horizontal and vertical components of flux divergence, and volumic mass changes on synoptic and subsynoptic scales. The greatest variability was concentrated above 400 mb height and over the most intense storm activity. Energy was generated at the highest rates in divergence and decreased the most in convection. The meso beta-scale lacked sufficient resolution for analyzing mesoscale activity.

Some Aspects of Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms during Cool-Season Return-Flow Episodes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Steven J.

1992-08-01

Historically, the Gulf of Mexico has been considered a primary source of water vapor that influences the weather for much of the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Although severe thunderstorms and tornadoes occur most frequently during the spring and summer months, the periodic transport of Gulf moisture inland ahead of traveling baroclinic waves can result in significant severe-weather episodes during the cool season.To gain insight into the short-range skill in forecasting surface synoptic patterns associated with moisture return from the Gulf, operational numerical weather prediction models from the National Meteorological Center were examined. Sea level pressure fields from the Limited-Area Fine-Mesh Model (LFM), Nested Grid Model (NGM), and the aviation (AVN) run of the Global Spectral Model, valid 48 h after initial data time, were evaluated for three cool-season cases that preceded severe local storm outbreaks. The NGM and AVN provided useful guidance in forecasting the onset of return flow along the Gulf coast. There was a slight tendency for these models to be slightly slow in the development of return flow. In contrast the LFM typically overforecasts the occurrence of return flow and tends to `open the Gulf' from west to east too quickly.Although the low-level synoptic pattern may be forecast correctly, the overall prediction process is hampered by a data void over the Gulf. It is hypothesized that when the return-flow moisture is located over the Gulf, model forecasts of stability and the resultant operational severe local storm forecasts are less skillful compared to situations when the moisture has spread inland already. This hypothesis is tested by examining the performance of the initial second-day (day 2) severe thunderstorm outlook issued by the National Severe Storms Forecast Center during the Gulf of Mexico Experiment (GUFMEX) in early 1988.It has been found that characteristically different air masses were present along the Gulf coast prior to the issuance of outlooks that accurately predicted the occurrence of severe thunderstorms versus outlooks that did not verify well. Unstable air masses with ample low-level moisture were in place along the coast prior to the issuance of the `good' day 2 outlooks, whereas relatively dry, stable air masses were present before the issuance of `false-alarm' outlooks. In the latter cases, large errors in the NGM 48-h lifted-index predictions were located north of the Gulf coast.

27 CFR 41.113 - Return periods.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... provided by § 41.114, the periods to be covered in the semimonthly tax returns shall be from the 1st day through the 15th day of each month, and from the 16th day through the last day of each month. [T.D. ATF-365, 60 FR 33675, June 28, 1995. Redesignated and amended by T.D. TTB-16, 69 FR 52424, 52425, Aug. 26...

Problems in determining the return of a watershed to pretreatment conditions: techniques applied to a study at Caspar Creek, California

Treesearch

Robert B. Thomas

1990-01-01

Using a previously treated basin as a control in subsequent paired watershed studies requires the control to be stable. Basin stability can be assessed in many ways, some of which are investigated for the South Fork of Caspar Creek in northern California. This basin is recovering from logging and road building in the early 1970s. Three storm-based discharge...

Effects of best-management practices in Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks in the Waumandee Creek Priority Watershed, Wisconsin, 1990-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graczyk, David J.; Walker, John F.; Bannerman, Roger T.; Rutter, Troy D.

2012-01-01

In many watersheds, nonpoint-source contamination is a major contributor to water-quality problems. In response to the recognition of the importance of nonpoint sources, the Wisconsin Nonpoint Source Water Pollution Abatement Program (Nonpoint Program) was enacted in 1978. This report summarizes the results of a study to assess the effectiveness of watershed-management practices for controlling nonpoint-source contamination for the Eagle Creek and Joos Valley Creek Watersheds. Streamflow-gaging stations equipped for automated sample collection and continuous recording of stream stage were installed in July 1990 at Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks and were operated through September 2007. In October 1990, three rain gages were installed in each watershed and were operated through September 2007. Best-Management Practices (BMPs) were installed during 1993 to 2000 in Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks and were tracked throughout the study period. By the year 2000, a majority of the BMPs were implemented in the two watersheds and goals set by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources and the local Land Conservation Department had been achieved for the two study watersheds (Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, 1990). The distributions of the rainstorms that produced surface runoff and storm loads were similar in the pre-BMP (1990-93) and post-BMP implementation (2000-07) periods for both Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks. The highest annual streamflow occurred at both sites in water year 1993, which corresponded to the greatest above normal nonfrozen precipitation measured at two nearby NOAA weather stations. The minimum streamflow occurred in water year 2007 at both sites. Base-flow and stormwater samples were collected and analyzed for suspended solids, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen. For both Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks the median concentrations of suspended solids and total phosphorus in base flow were lower during the post-BMP period compared to the pre-BMP period and were statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level. The decrease in median concentrations of ammonia nitrogen at both sites was not statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level. Multiple linear regression analyses were used to remove the effects of climatologic conditions and seasonality from computed storm loads. For both Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks, the median storm loads for suspended solids, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen were lower during the post-BMP period compared to the pre-BMP period and were statistically significant at the 0.05 significance level. The decreases in storm-load regression residuals from the pre- to the post-BMP periods for both Eagle and Joos Valley Creeks were statistically significant for all three constituents at the 0.05 significance level and indicated an apparent improvement in water-quality in the post-BMP period. Because the rainfall characteristics for individual storms in the pre- and post-BMP periods are likely to be different, separate pre- and post-BMP regressions were used to estimate the theoretical pre- and post-BMP storm loads to allow estimates of precent reductions between the pre- and post-BMP periods. The estimated percent reductions in storm loads for suspended solids, total phosphorus, and ammonia nitrogen were 89, 77, and 66 respectively for Eagle Creek and 84, 67, and 60 respectively for Joos Valley Creek. The apparent improvement in water quality is attributed to the implemented BMPs and to a reduction in the number of cattle in the watersheds.

Equatorial Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere/Ionosphere (MLTI) Response to Severe Cyclonic Storm `Aila' and `Ward' observed over North Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

G J, B.

2016-12-01

The present work investigates the Equatorial Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere/Ionosphere (MLTI) response to severe cyclonic storm `Aila (23-26 May 2009)' and `Ward (10-16 December 2009)' which were observed over north Indian Ocean during the extended solar minimum of the year 2009. This report reveals the coupling between Tropical Cyclone and MLTI region. Tropical cyclone track and data can be obtained from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi. Mesospheric and Ionospheric variation can be examined with the help of ground based Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere (MLT) radar and Digisonde located at equatorial low latitude station, Tirunelveli (8.7oN, 77.8oE). The Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) data is used as a proxy for identifying the convective activity, which are retrieved from NOAA Climate Data Centre. It is observed that the tropical cyclone induced convection as the driving agent for the increased gravity wave activity in the lower atmosphere. These upward propagating gravity waves deposit their energy and momentum into the upper region of atmosphere as `Travelling Ionospheric Disturbances (TIDs). During the cyclonic storm periods, we found increased gravity wave amplitude with upward propagation in the MLT region. Ionospheric response to severe cyclonic storm is examined with the dynamical parameters, foF2, hmF2, h'F2 and Total Election Content (TEC). Significant increase of foF2 frequency is observed during `Ward' cyclonic storm. Drastic variation in foF2 and h'F2 is observed during Aila cyclonic storm than ward event. More statistical analysis has been done for finding the correlation between cyclonic storm and Ionospheric parameters. Detailed results will be presented in the meeting.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

Response of lightning energy and total electron content with sprites over Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suparta, W.; Yusop, N.

2017-05-01

This paper investigates the response of the lightning energy with the total electron content (TEC) derived from GPS over Antarctic Peninsula during St Patrick’s geomagnetic storm. During this event, sprite as one of the mesospheric transient luminous events (TLEs) associated with positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning discharges can be generated. In this work, GPS and lightning data for the period from 14 to 20 March 2015 is analyzed. Geomagnetic activity and electric field data are also processed to relate the geomagnetic storm and lightning. Results show that during St Patrick’s geomagnetic storm, the lighting energy was produced up to ∼257 kJ. The ionospheric TEC was obtained 60 TECU, 38 TECU and 78 TECU between 18:00 and 21:00 UT for OHI3, PALV and ROTH stations, respectively. The peak of lightning energy was observed 14 hours after peaked of TEC. Sprite possibly generated through the electrical coupling process between the top cloud, middle and upper atmosphere with the DC electric field found to be ∼10 mVm-1 which leading to the sprite generation after the return strokes on 18 March 2015.

Modeling Spatial Dependence of Rainfall Extremes Across Multiple Durations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le, Phuong Dong; Leonard, Michael; Westra, Seth

2018-03-01

Determining the probability of a flood event in a catchment given that another flood has occurred in a nearby catchment is useful in the design of infrastructure such as road networks that have multiple river crossings. These conditional flood probabilities can be estimated by calculating conditional probabilities of extreme rainfall and then transforming rainfall to runoff through a hydrologic model. Each catchment's hydrological response times are unlikely to be the same, so in order to estimate these conditional probabilities one must consider the dependence of extreme rainfall both across space and across critical storm durations. To represent these types of dependence, this study proposes a new approach for combining extreme rainfall across different durations within a spatial extreme value model using max-stable process theory. This is achieved in a stepwise manner. The first step defines a set of common parameters for the marginal distributions across multiple durations. The parameters are then spatially interpolated to develop a spatial field. Storm-level dependence is represented through the max-stable process for rainfall extremes across different durations. The dependence model shows a reasonable fit between the observed pairwise extremal coefficients and the theoretical pairwise extremal coefficient function across all durations. The study demonstrates how the approach can be applied to develop conditional maps of the return period and return level across different durations.

SLR-induced temporal and spatial changes in hotspots to storms along the Catalan coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Jose A.; Sanuy, Marc; Valdemoro, Herminia

2017-04-01

Coastal hotspots to storms can be simply defined as locations where the magnitude of the storm-induced risk is significantly higher than neighbouring areas for a given probability of occurrence. Their distribution along the coast depends on the magnitude of storm-induced hazards and on the coastal resilient capacity. Increasing damages observed in our coasts during the last decades have driven the need to include specific chapters on risk management in ICZM plans. In this context, the identification of hotspots is one of the first points to be considered. This permits to better allocate resources for risk management by concentrating efforts in specific locations. Within this context, we have identified hotspots along the Catalan coast (Spanish Mediterranean) to storm-induced erosion and inundation hazards. This has been done by using the methodology developed within the RISCKIT EU project where storm-induced hazards (erosion and inundation) are characterised in probabilistic terms by using simple inundation and erosion models as a function of water level and wave climates and local coastal morphology. The final result was a set of inundation and erosion hotspots along the coast under current conditions for selected probabilities of occurrences, P. For low return periods, Tr, few hotspots appear and they represent coastal locations frequently affected by the corresponding hazard. On the other, for high Tr, a larger number (and of larger extension) of hotspots appear, that although less frequently affected, they are subjected to a larger impact. Although this is valuable information for coastal managers, it is only valid for making decisions for a short time horizon or under steady conditions. However, since the proper time scale for coastal planning is in the order of several decades, it is not likely that conditions will remain steady. Thus, although most of existing predictions of climate-induce changes in storminess in the Mediterranean indicate the absence of any significant increasing trend, this does not imply that storm-induced coastal hazards will not change. Thus, SLR will induce a series of long-term changes in coastal areas that although not directly affecting storminess will modify the coastal resilient capacity and, thus, changing coastal storm risks. To provide long-term predictions of hotspot, we have assessed the long-term SLR influence on erosion and inundation risks. To do this, an equilibrium-based approach has been adopted in which background SLR-induced shoreline retreat and beach vertical response are assessed for different SLR scenarios. Obtained values are used to predict future coastal morphology and to compute the resilient capacity for each beach at any time horizon. With this information, future erosion and inundation risks and corresponding new spatial distributions of coastal hotspots are calculated for selected probabilities. Obtained results show a significant increase in hotspots along the coast, with most of the changes concentrated in areas with small accommodation space and dominated by mild slope shorefaces. The extension of the new hotspots seems to indicate than unless land planning is considered as a tool for risk reduction, massive protection need to be implemented in certain areas.

On the secondary eyewall formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014).

PubMed

Abarca, Sergio F; Montgomery, Michael T; Braun, Scott A; Dunion, Jason

2016-09-01

A first observationally-based estimation of departures from gradient wind balance during secondary eyewall formation is presented. The study is based on the Atlantic Hurricane Edouard (2014). This storm was observed during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment, a field campaign conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A total of 135 dropsondes are analyzed in two separate time periods: one named the secondary eyewall formation period and the other one referred to as the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. During the secondary eyewall formation period, a time when the storm was observed to have only one eyewall, the diagnosed agradient force has a secondary maxima that coincides with the radial location of the secondary eyewall observed in the second period of study. The maximum spin up tendency of the radial influx of absolute vertical vorticity is within the boundary layer in the region of the eyewall of the storm and the spin up tendency structure elongates radially outward into the secondary region of supergradient wind, where the secondary wind maxima is observed in the second period of study. An analysis of the boundary-layer averaged vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature reveals a conditionally unstable environment in the secondary eyewall formation region. These findings support the hypothesis that deep convective activity in this region contributed to spin up of the boundary layer tangential winds and the formation of a secondary eyewall that is observed during the decaying-double eyewalled storm period.

The Impact of Climate Change on New York City's Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Kopp, R. E.; Lin, N.; Alley, R. B.; Horton, B.; Deconto, R. M.; Donnelly, J. P.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the pre-industrial through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP 8.5 runs of three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections include the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet to assess future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared to pre-industrial or modern flood heights. We find that the 1-in-500-year flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 3.9 - 4.8 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100, and ranges from 2.8 - 13.0 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25 m flood has decreased from 500 years prior to 1800 to 25 years during 1970-2005, and further decreases to 5 years by 2030 - 2045 in 95% of our simulations.

Low-E Retrofit Demonstration and Educational Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Culp, Thomas D; Wiehagen, Joseph; Drumheller, S Craig

The objective of this project was to demonstrate the capability of low-emissivity (low-E) storm windows / panels and low-E retrofit glazing systems to significantly and cost effectively improve the energy efficiency of both existing residential and commercial buildings. The key outcomes are listed below: RESIDENTIAL CASE STUDIES: (a) A residential case study in two large multifamily apartment buildings in Philadelphia showed a substantial 18-22% reduction in heating energy use and a 9% reduction in cooling energy use by replacing old clear glass storm windows with modern low-E storm windows. Furthermore, the new low-E storm windows reduced the overall apartment airmore » leakage by an average of 10%. (b) Air leakage testing on interior low-E panels installed in a New York City multifamily building over windows with and without AC units showed that the effective leakage area of the windows was reduced by 77-95%. (c) To study the use of low-E storm windows in a warmer mixed climate with a balance of both heating and cooling, 10 older homes near Atlanta with single pane windows were tested with three types of exterior storm windows: clear glass, low-E glass with high solar heat gain, and low-E glass with lower solar heat gain. The storm windows significantly reduced the overall home air leakage by an average of 17%, or 3.7 ACH50. Considerably high variability in the data made it difficult to draw strong conclusions about the overall energy usage, but for heating periods, the low-E storm windows showed approximately 15% heating energy savings, whereas clear storm windows were neutral in performance. For cooling periods, the low-E storm windows showed a wide range of performance from 2% to over 30% cooling energy savings. Overall, the study showed the potential for significantly more energy savings from using low-E glass versus no storm window or clear glass storm windows in warmer mixed climates, but it is difficult to conclusively say whether one type of low-E performed better than the other. COMMERCIAL CASE STUDIES: (a) A 12-story office building in Philadelphia was retrofitted by adding a double-pane low-E insulating glass unit to the existing single pane windows, to create a triple glazed low-E system. A detailed side-by-side comparison in two pairs of perimeter offices facing north and east showed a 39-60% reduction in heating energy use, a 9-36% reduction in cooling energy use, and a 10% reduction in peak electrical cooling demand. An analysis of utility bills estimated the whole building heating and cooling energy use was reduced by over 25%. Additionally, the retrofit window temperatures were commonly 20 degrees warmer on winter days, and 10-20 degrees cooler on summer days, leading to increased occupant comfort. (b) Two large 4-story office buildings in New Jersey were retrofitted with a similar system, but using two low-E coatings in the retrofit system. The energy savings are being monitored by a separate GPIC project; this work quantified the changes in glass surface temperatures, thermal comfort, and potential glass thermal stress. The low-E retrofit panels greatly reduced daily variations in the interior window surface temperatures, lowering the maximum temperature and raising the minimum temperature by over 20F compared to the original single pane windows with window film. The number of hours of potential thermal discomfort, as measured by deviation between mean radiant temperature and ambient air temperature by more than 3F, were reduced by 93 percent on the south orientation and over two-thirds on the west orientation. Overall, the low-E retrofit led to substantially improved occupant comfort with less periods of both overheating and feeling cold. (c) No significant thermal stress was observed in the New Jersey office building test window when using the low-E retrofit system over a variety of weather conditions. The surface temperature difference only exceeded 10F (500 psi thermal stress) for less than 1.5% of the monitored time, and in all cases, the maximum surface temperature difference never exceeded 35F (1,750 psi thermal stress). LOW-E STORM WINDOW OUTREACH AND EDUCATION PROGRAM: (a) The project team assisted the State of Pennsylvania in adding low-E storm windows as a cost effective weatherization measure on its priority list for the state weatherization assistance program. (b) No technical barriers that could hinder widespread application were identified in the case studies. However, educational barriers have been identified, in that weatherization personnel commonly misunderstand how the application of low-E storm windows is very different than much more expensive full window replacement. (c) A package of educational materials was developed to help communicate the benefits of low-E storm windows and retrofits as a cost effective tool for weatherization personnel. (d) Using detailed thermal simulations, more accurate U-factor and solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) values were determined for low-E storm windows installed over different primary windows. IN SUMMARY, this work confirmed the potential for low-E storm windows, panels, and retrofit systems to provide significant energy savings, reductions in air leakage, and improvements in thermal comfort in both residential and commercial existing buildings.« less

Autism Prevalence Following Prenatal Exposure to Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in Louisiana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kinney, Dennis K.; Miller, Andrea M.; Crowley, David J.; Huang, Emerald; Gerber, Erika

2008-01-01

Hurricanes and tropical storms served as natural experiments for investigating whether autism is associated with exposure to stressful events during sensitive periods of gestation. Weather service data identified severe storms in Louisiana from 1980 to 1995 and parishes hit by storm centers during this period. Autism prevalences in different…

Overview of U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development’s planned research on Analysis and monitoring in fresh and coastal/estuarine environments

EPA Science Inventory

Several factors are contributing to the development of the “perfect” Harmful algal Bloom (HAB) storm. For example, climate change associated with elevated temperatures over prolonged time periods, changes in population demographics, agricultural land use linked to nit...

Field observation on secondary organic aerosols during Asian dust storm periods: Formation mechanism of oxalic acid and related compounds on dust surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Gehui; Cheng, Chunlei; Meng, Jingjing; Huang, Yao; Li, Jianjun; Ren, Yanqin

2015-07-01

Chemical evolution of East Asian dust during transpacific transport has been given much attention for inorganic species such as sulfate, nitrate and ammonium. However, the role of organic species during the transport has almost entirely been ignored. To understand the formation mechanism of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) on dust surfaces, this study investigated the concentrations and compositions of dicarboxylic acids, keto-carboxylic acids, α-dicarbonyls and inorganic ions in size-segregated aerosols (9-stages) collected in Xi'an, central China during the two dust storm episodes in the springs of 2009 and 2011 and compared with those in nondust storm periods. During the events the ambient particulate dicarboxylic acids were 932-2240 ng m-3, which are comparable and even higher than those in nondust periods. Molecular compositions of the above SOA are similar to those in nondust periods with oxalic acid being the leading species. In the presence of the dust storms, all the above mentioned SOA species in Xi'an were predominantly enriched on the coarse particles (>2.1 μm), and oxalic acid well correlated with NO3- (R2 = 0.72, p < 0.001) rather than SO42-. This phenomenon differs greatly from the SOA in any other nondust period that is usually characterized by an enrichment of oxalic acid in fine mode and a strong correlation of oxalic acid with SO42-. We propose a formation pathway to explain these observations, in which nitric acid and/or nitrogen oxides react with dust to produce Ca(NO3)2 and form a liquid phase on the surface of dust aerosols via water vapor-absorption of Ca(NO3)2, followed by a partitioning of the gas-phase water-soluble organic precursors (e.g.,glyoxal and methylglyoxal) into the aqueous-phase and a subsequent oxidation into oxalic acid. To the best of our knowledge, we found for the first time the enrichment of glyoxal and methylglyoxal on dust surface. Our data suggest an important role of nitrate in the heterogeneous formation process of SOA on the surface of dust.

Comparative Embryology of Eleven Species of Stony Corals (Scleractinia)

PubMed Central

Okubo, Nami; Mezaki, Takuma; Nozawa, Yoko; Nakano, Yoshikatsu; Lien, Yi-Ting; Fukami, Hironobu; Hayward, David C.; Ball, Eldon E.

2013-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of coral reproduction and development is needed because corals are threatened in many ways by human activity. Major threats include the loss of their photosynthetic symbionts (Symbiodinium) caused by rising temperatures (bleaching), reduced ability to calcify caused by ocean acidification, increased storm severity associated with global climate change and an increase in predators caused by runoff from human agricultural activity. In spite of these threats, detailed descriptions of embryonic development are not available for many coral species. The current consensus is that there are two major groups of stony corals, the "complex" and the "robust". In this paper we describe the embryonic development of four "complex" species, Pseudosiderastrea tayamai, Galaxea fascicularis, Montipora hispida, and Pavona Decussata, and seven "robust" species, Oulastrea crispata, Platygyra contorta, Favites abdita, Echinophyllia aspera, Goniastrea favulus, Dipsastraea speciosa (previously Favia speciosa), and Phymastrea valenciennesi (previously Montastrea valenciennesi). Data from both histologically sectioned embryos and whole mounts are presented. One apparent difference between these two major groups is that before gastrulation the cells of the complex corals thus far described (mainly Acropora species) spread and flatten to produce the so-called prawn chip, which lacks a blastocoel. Our present broad survey of robust and complex corals reveals that prawn chip formation is not a synapomorphy of complex corals, as Pavona Decussata does not form a prawn chip and has a well-developed blastocoel. Although prawn chip formation cannot be used to separate the two clades, none of the robust corals which we surveyed has such a stage. Many robust coral embryos pass through two periods of invagination, separated by a return to a spherical shape. However, only the second of these periods is associated with endoderm formation. We have therefore termed the first invagination a pseudo-blastopore. PMID:24367633

Analysis of prestorm situations in the Florida Straight and Golubaya Bay in the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grankov, A. G.; Marechek, S. V.; Milshin, A. A.; Novichikhin, E. P.; Shelobanova, N. K.

2014-01-01

We consider some peculiarities of the behavior of thermal and radio thermal (microwave radiation) characteristics of the atmosphere during prestorm situations in water areas monitored directly and remotely. The objects of research are (a) a region of the SMKF1 station (Sombrero Key) in the Florida Straight in August 2005 and (b) Golubaya Bay in the Black Sea (Gelendzhik, the territory of the Southern Branch of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences) in September 2010, several days before an intensive storm. Using meteorological and satellite microwave radiometric data, we have studied some common and specific features in the behavior of surface air temperature and humidity, surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat, total heat and water vapor content of the atmosphere, and microwave radiation characteristics of the "water surface-atmosphere" system during time periods preceding the approach of Hurricane Katrina to the region of SMKF1 and development of the sea storm near the Golubaya Bay. In both cases the effect of the accumulation of the latent heat of water vapor in the atmosphere was observed during the prestorm periods (of several days).

The index-flood and the GRADEX methods combination for flood frequency analysis.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuentes, Diana; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Quesada, Beatriz; Xu, Chong-Yu; Halldin, Sven; Beven, Keith

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis is used in many applications, including flood risk management, design of hydraulic structures, and urban planning. However, such analysis requires of long series of observed discharge data which are often not available in many basins around the world. In this study, we tested the usefulness of combining regional discharge and local precipitation data to estimate the event flood volume frequency curve for 63 catchments in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. This was achieved by combining two existing flood frequency analysis methods, the regionalization index-flood approach with the GRADEX method. For up to 10-years return period, similar shape of the scaled flood frequency curve for catchments with similar flood behaviour was assumed from the index-flood approach. For return periods larger than 10-years the probability distribution of rainfall and discharge volumes were assumed to be asymptotically and exponential-type functions with the same scale parameter from the GRADEX method. Results showed that if the mean annual flood (MAF), used as index-flood, is known, the index-flood approach performed well for up to 10 years return periods, resulting in 25% mean relative error in prediction. For larger return periods the prediction capability decreased but could be improved by the use of the GRADEX method. As the MAF is unknown at ungauged and short-period measured basins, we tested predicting the MAF using catchments climate-physical characteristics, and discharge statistics, the latter when observations were available for only 8 years. Only the use of discharge statistics resulted in acceptable predictions.

Integrated drought risk assessment of multi-hazard-affected bodies based on copulas in the Taoerhe Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Rui; Zhang, Jiquan; Guo, Enliang; Alu, Si; Li, Danjun; Ha, Si; Dong, Zhenhua

2018-02-01

Along with global warming, drought disasters are occurring more frequently and are seriously affecting normal life and food security in China. Drought risk assessments are necessary to provide support for local governments. This study aimed to establish an integrated drought risk model based on the relation curve of drought joint probabilities and drought losses of multi-hazard-affected bodies. First, drought characteristics, including duration and severity, were classified using the 1953-2010 precipitation anomaly in the Taoerhe Basin based on run theory, and their marginal distributions were identified by exponential and Gamma distributions, respectively. Then, drought duration and severity were related to construct a joint probability distribution based on the copula function. We used the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model to simulate maize yield and historical data to calculate the loss rates of agriculture, industry, and animal husbandry in the study area. Next, we constructed vulnerability curves. Finally, the spatial distributions of drought risk for 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods were expressed using inverse distance weighting. Our results indicate that the spatial distributions of the three return periods are consistent. The highest drought risk is in Ulanhot, and the duration and severity there were both highest. This means that higher drought risk corresponds to longer drought duration and larger drought severity, thus providing useful information for drought and water resource management. For 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods, the drought risk values ranged from 0.41 to 0.53, 0.45 to 0.59, and 0.50 to 0.67, respectively. Therefore, when the return period increases, the drought risk increases.

Comparative embryology of eleven species of stony corals (Scleractinia).

PubMed

Okubo, Nami; Mezaki, Takuma; Nozawa, Yoko; Nakano, Yoshikatsu; Lien, Yi-Ting; Fukami, Hironobu; Hayward, David C; Ball, Eldon E

2013-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of coral reproduction and development is needed because corals are threatened in many ways by human activity. Major threats include the loss of their photosynthetic symbionts (Symbiodinium) caused by rising temperatures (bleaching), reduced ability to calcify caused by ocean acidification, increased storm severity associated with global climate change and an increase in predators caused by runoff from human agricultural activity. In spite of these threats, detailed descriptions of embryonic development are not available for many coral species. The current consensus is that there are two major groups of stony corals, the "complex" and the "robust". In this paper we describe the embryonic development of four "complex" species, Pseudosiderastrea tayamai, Galaxea fascicularis, Montipora hispida, and Pavona Decussata, and seven "robust" species, Oulastrea crispata, Platygyra contorta, Favites abdita, Echinophyllia aspera, Goniastrea favulus, Dipsastraea speciosa (previously Favia speciosa), and Phymastrea valenciennesi (previously Montastrea valenciennesi). Data from both histologically sectioned embryos and whole mounts are presented. One apparent difference between these two major groups is that before gastrulation the cells of the complex corals thus far described (mainly Acropora species) spread and flatten to produce the so-called prawn chip, which lacks a blastocoel. Our present broad survey of robust and complex corals reveals that prawn chip formation is not a synapomorphy of complex corals, as Pavona Decussata does not form a prawn chip and has a well-developed blastocoel. Although prawn chip formation cannot be used to separate the two clades, none of the robust corals which we surveyed has such a stage. Many robust coral embryos pass through two periods of invagination, separated by a return to a spherical shape. However, only the second of these periods is associated with endoderm formation. We have therefore termed the first invagination a pseudo-blastopore.

RATIONAL DETERMINATION METHOD OF PROBABLE FREEZING INDEX FOR n-YEARS CONSIDERING THE REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawabata, Shinichiro; Hayashi, Keiji; Kameyama, Shuichi

This paper investigates a method for ob taining the probable freezing index for n -years from past frostaction damage and meteorological data. From investigati on of Japanese cold winter data from the areas of Hokkaido, Tohoku and south of Tohoku, it was found that the extent of cold winter had regularity by location south or north. Also, after obtaining return periods of cold winters by area, obvious regional characteristics were found. Mild winters are rare in Hokkaido. However, it was clarified that when Hokkaido had cold winters, its size increased. It wa s effective to determine the probable freezing indices as 20-, 15- and 10-year return periods for Hokkaido, Tohoku and south of Tohoku, respectively.

Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plondke, D. L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents about the urgency of climate change mitigation. Lacking in most of the island and coastal environments where major storms occur and are likely to occur more frequently in the future are educational opportunities and public dissemination of information about climate change forecasts, storm impact mitigation, and emergency preparedness.

Long-term variability of dust optical depths on Mars during MY24-MY32 and their impact on subtropical lower ionosphere: Climatology, modeling, and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheel, Varun; Haider, S. A.

2016-08-01

Dust optical depths (τ) for nine Martian years (MY24-MY32) in the subtropical region (25-35°S) have been used to classify distinct dust scenarios. These data are based on observations at 9.3 µm from the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey missions and encompass the regional dust storms which occur every year around solar longitude (Ls) ~ 220° and the two major dust storms of MY25 and MY28. Constrained by these observations and the Mars Climate Sounder observations of detached dust layers, we estimate altitude profiles of dust concentrations. We discuss the characteristics of dust aerosol particles of different size between 0.2 and 3.0 µm by assuming a modified gamma distribution. We then use a comprehensive ion-dust model to calculate ion densities and conductivities in the lower ionosphere of Mars in the absence of dust storm at τ = 0.1 and Ls = 150° and for three dust storm periods viz., (1) major dust storm at τ = 1.7 and Ls = 210°, (2) major dust storm at τ = 1.2 and Ls = 280°, and (3) regional dust storm at τ = 0.5 and Ls = 220°. The model with 12 neutral species considers galactic cosmic rays as a source of ionization. Results show that the density of the dominant hydrated cluster ions and the electrical conductivity are reduced by an order of magnitude near the surface for a few months until the dust storm settles down to its normal condition.

On the Secondary Eyewall Formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abarca, Sergio F.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Braun, Scott A.; Dunion, Jason

2016-01-01

A first observationally-based estimation of departures from gradient wind balance during secondary eyewall formation is presented. The study is based on the Atlantic Hurricane Edouard (2014). This storm was observed during the National Aeronautics and Space Administrations (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment, a field campaign conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A total of 135 dropsondes are analyzed in two separate time periods: one named the secondary eyewall formation period and the other one referred to as the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. During the secondary eyewall formation period, a time when the storm was observed to have only one eyewall, the diagnosed agradient force has a secondary maxima that coincides with the radial location of the secondary eyewall observed in the second period of study. The maximum spin up tendency of the radial influx of absolute vertical vorticity is within the boundary layer in the region of the eyewall of the storm and the spin up tendency structure elongates radially outward into the secondary region of supergradient wind, where the secondary wind maxima is observed in the second period of study. An analysis of the boundary layer averaged vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature reveals a conditionally unstable environment in the secondary eyewall formation region. These findings support the hypothesis that deep convective activity in this region contributed to spin up of the boundary layer tangential winds and the formation of a secondary eyewall that is observed during the decaying-double eyewalled storm period.

Assessment of future variability in extreme precipitation and the potential effects on the wadi flow regime.

PubMed

Gunawardhana, Luminda Niroshana; Al-Rawas, Ghazi A; Kazama, So; Al-Najar, Khalid A

2015-10-01

The objective of this study is to investigate how the magnitude and occurrence of extreme precipitation events are affected by climate change and to predict the subsequent impacts on the wadi flow regime in the Al-Khod catchment area, Muscat, Oman. The tank model, a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate the wadi flow. Precipitation extremes and their potential future changes were predicted using six-member ensembles of general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Yearly maxima of the daily precipitation and wadi flow for varying return periods were compared for observed and projected data by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution function. Flow duration curves (FDC) were developed and compared for the observed and projected wadi flows. The results indicate that extreme precipitation events consistently increase by the middle of the twenty-first century for all return periods (49-52%), but changes may become more profound by the end of the twenty-first century (81-101%). Consequently, the relative change in extreme wadi flow is greater than twofolds for all of the return periods in the late twenty-first century compared to the relative changes that occur in the mid-century period. Precipitation analysis further suggests that greater than 50% of the precipitation may be associated with extreme events in the future. The FDC analysis reveals that changes in low-to-moderate flows (Q60-Q90) may not be statistically significant, whereas increases in high flows (Q5) are statistically robust (20 and 25% for the mid- and late-century periods, respectively).

Erosion on very stony forest soil during phenomenal rain in Webster County, West Virginia

Treesearch

J. H. Patric; W. E., Jr. Kidd

1982-01-01

On July 15 and 16, 1979, at least 6 inches of rain fell in central West Virginia during 3 hours, a storm of return period longer than 1,000 years. More than 6 miles of logging roads were examined for evidences of soil erosion and sediment delivery to streams. Erosion was negligible on very stony soils where (a) logging roads were litter covered, (b) road grades were...

Floods of April 28, 1966 in the northern part of Dallas, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mills, Willard B.; Schroeder, Elmer E.

1969-01-01

The flood was caused by a 5-hour storm in the early hours of April 28. Antecedent rainfall had so saturated the area that the intense, but relatively low, total rainfall (less than a 50-year return period) caused historical floods to be exceeded at many points. A peak runoff rate of 3,160 cubic feet per second per square mile occurred on a 1.5 square-mile area within the watershed.

Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

2018-01-01

This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental effect for marsh boundaries even during calm weather. On the other hand, when a violent storm causes substantial erosion but sediments are redistributed across nearby areas, the long term impact might not be as severe as if sediments were permanently lost from the system, and the salt marsh could easily recover to the initial state.

NOAA Environmental Satellite Measurements of Extreme Space Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denig, W. F.; Wilkinson, D. C.; Redmon, R. J.

2015-12-01

For over 40 years the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has continuously monitored the near-earth space environment in support of space weather operations. Data from this period have covered a wide range of geophysical conditions including periods of extreme space weather such as the great geomagnetic March 1989, the 2003 Halloween storm and the more recent St Patrick's Day storm of 2015. While not specifically addressed here, these storms have stressed our technology infrastructure in unexpected and surprising ways. Space weather data from NOAA geostationary (GOES) and polar (POES) satellites along with supporting data from the Air Force are presented to compare and contrast the space environmental conditions measured during extreme events.

A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Kuo-Ting; Lih, Jiann-Shing; Ko, Jing-Yuan

2012-12-01

This study examines statistical regularities among three components of stocks and indices: daytime (trading hour) return, overnight (off-hour session) return, and total (close-to-close) return. Owing to the fact that the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has the longest non-trading periods among major markets, the TWSE is selected to explore the correlation among the three components and compare it with major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). Analysis results indicate a negative cross correlation between the sign of daytime return and the sign of overnight return; possibly explaining why most stocks feature a negative cross correlation between daytime return and overnight return [F. Wang, S.-J. Shieh, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return, Phys. Rev. E 79 (2009) 056109]. Additionally, the cross correlation between the magnitude of returns is analyzed. According to those results, a larger magnitude of overnight return implies a higher probability that the sign of the following daytime return is the opposite of the sign of overnight return. Namely, the predictability of daytime return might be improved when a stock undergoes a large magnitude of overnight return. Furthermore, the cross correlations of 29 indices of worldwide markets are discussed.

[Summary of Research on Relationship Between Core Convective Structure and Intensity Change in Tropical Cyclones

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

The downshear reformation of Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2001) was investigated using radar reflectivity and lightning data that were nearly continuous in time, as well as frequent aircraft reconnaissance flights. Initially the storm was a marginal tropical storm in an environment with strong 850-200 hPa vertical wind shear of 12-13 meters per second and an approaching upper tropospheric trough. Both the observed outflow and an adiabatic balance model calculation showed that the radial-vertical circulation increased with time as the trough approached. Convection was highly asymmetric, with almost all radar return located in one quadrant left of downshear in the storm. Reconnaissance data show that an intense mesovortex formed downshear of the original center. This vortex was located just south of, rather than within, a strong downshear left lightning outbreak, consistent with tilting of the horizontal vorticity associated with the vertical wind shear. The downshear mesovortex contained a 972 hPa minimum central pressure, 20 hPa lower than minimum pressure in the original vortex just three hours earlier. The mesovortex became the new center of the storm, but weakened somewhat prior to landfall. It is argued that dry air carried around the storm from the region of upshear subsidence, as well as the direct effects of the shear, prevented the reformed vortex from continuing to intensify. Despite the subsequent weakening of the reformed center, it reached land with greater intensity than the original center. It is argued that this intensification process was set into motion by the vertical wind shear in the presence of an environment with upward motion forced by the upper tropospheric trough. In addition, the new center formed much closer to the coast and made landfall much earlier than predicted. Such vertical shear-induced intensity and track fluctuations are important to understand, especially in storms approaching the coast. The structures of the highly sheared tropical storm Chantal During CAMEX-4 is also discussed.

Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

2009-04-01

Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic model yields better forecasts than the existing European storm surge models. The best performance of European storm surge models for non-storm and storm conditions was achieved by KNMI (with Kalman filter data assimilation) and BSH with errors of 8.95cm and 10.92cm, respectively. Whereas the chaotic model can provide 6 and 48 hours forecasts with errors of 3.10cm and 8.55cm for non-storm condition and 5.04cm and 15.21cm for storm condition, respectively. The chaotic model can provide better forecasts primarily due to the fact that the chaotic model forecasting are estimated by local models which model and identify the similar development of storm surges in the past. In practice, the chaotic model can serve as a reliable and accurate model to support decision-makers in operational ship navigation and flood forecasting.

Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil K.; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

2018-01-01

This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented.Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion.Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental effect for marsh boundaries even during calm weather. On the other hand, when a violent storm causes substantial erosion but sediments are redistributed across nearby areas, the long term impact might not be as severe as if sediments were permanently lost from the system, and the salt marsh could easily recover to the initial state.

A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss of a building portfolio based on hailfall intensity determined by radar measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aller, D.; Hohl, R.; Mair, F.; Schiesser, H.-H.

2003-04-01

Extreme hailfall can cause massive damage to building structures. For the insurance and reinsurance industry it is essential to estimate the probable maximum hail loss of their portfolio. The probable maximum loss (PML) is usually defined with a return period of 1 in 250 years. Statistical extrapolation has a number of critical points, as historical hail loss data are usually only available from some events while insurance portfolios change over the years. At the moment, footprints are derived from historical hail damage data. These footprints (mean damage patterns) are then moved over a portfolio of interest to create scenario losses. However, damage patterns of past events are based on the specific portfolio that was damaged during that event and can be considerably different from the current spread of risks. A new method for estimating the probable maximum hail loss to a building portfolio is presented. It is shown that footprints derived from historical damages are different to footprints of hail kinetic energy calculated from radar reflectivity measurements. Based on the relationship between radar-derived hail kinetic energy and hail damage to buildings, scenario losses can be calculated. A systematic motion of the hail kinetic energy footprints over the underlying portfolio creates a loss set. It is difficult to estimate the return period of losses calculated with footprints derived from historical damages being moved around. To determine the return periods of the hail kinetic energy footprints over Switzerland, 15 years of radar measurements and 53 years of agricultural hail losses are available. Based on these data, return periods of several types of hailstorms were derived for different regions in Switzerland. The loss set is combined with the return periods of the event set to obtain an exceeding frequency curve, which can be used to derive the PML.

Long-Term Interactions of Streamflow Generation and River Basin Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Niemann, J.

2005-12-01

It is well known that the spatial patterns and dynamics of streamflow generation processes depend on river basin topography, but the impact of streamflow generation processes on the long-term evolution of river basins has not drawn as much attention. Fluvial erosion processes are driven by streamflow, which can be produced by Horton runoff, Dunne runoff, and groundwater discharge. In this analysis, we hypothesize that the dominant streamflow generation process in a basin affects the spatial patterns of fluvial erosion and that the nature of these patterns changes for storm events with differing return periods. Furthermore, we hypothesize that differences in the erosion patterns modify the topography over the long term in a way that promotes and/or inhibits the other streamflow generation mechanisms. In order to test these hypotheses, a detailed hydrologic model is imbedded into an existing landscape evolution model. Precipitation events are simulated with a Poisson process and have random intensities and durations. The precipitation is partitioned between Horton runoff and infiltration to groundwater using a specified infiltration capacity. Groundwater flow is described by a two-dimensional Dupuit equation for a homogeneous, isotropic, unconfined aquifer with an irregular underlying impervious layer. Dunne runoff occurs when precipitation falls on locations where the water table reaches the land surface. The combined hydrologic/geomorphic model is applied to the WE-38 basin, an experimental watershed in Pennsylvania that has substantial available hydrologic data. First, the hydrologic model is calibrated to reproduce the observed streamflow for 1990 using the observed rainfall as the input. Then, the relative roles of Horton runoff, Dunne runoff, and groundwater discharge are controlled by varying the infiltration capacity of the soil. For each infiltration capacity, the hydrologic and geomorphic behavior of the current topography is analyzed and the long-term evolution of the basin is simulated. The results indicate that the topography can be divided into three types of locations (unsaturated, saturated, and intermittently saturated) which control the patterns of streamflow generation for events with different return periods. The results also indicate that the streamflow generation processes can produce different geomorphic effective events at upstream and downstream locations. The model also suggests that a topography dominated by groundwater discharge evolves over a long period of time to a shape that tends to inhibit the development of saturated areas and Dunne runoff.

Social Internal Rates of Return to College Education in the United States: 1969, 1974, 1978, and 1982. Working Paper in Economics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohn, Elchanan; Hughes, Woodrow W., Jr.

The issue of rates of return to educational investment over time is discussed, noting that the examination of this subject enjoyed its heyday in the middle and late 1970s. A longitudinal examination of internal rates of returns to college education for different time periods is included. Some of the reasons for reexamining the issue are: the…

Storm Water Retention on Three Green Roofs with Distinct Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breach, P. A.; Sims, A.; O'Carroll, D. M.; Robinson, C. E.; Smart, C. C.; Powers, B. S. C.

2014-12-01

As urbanization continues to increase the impact of cities on their surrounding environments, the feasibility of implementing low-impact development such as green roofs is of increasing interest. Green roofs retain and attenuate storm water thereby reducing the load on urban sewer systems. In addition, green roofs can provide insulation and lower roof surface temperature leading to a decrease in building energy load. Green roof technology in North American urban environments remains underused, in part due to a lack of climate appropriate green roof design guidelines. The capacity of a green roof to moderate runoff depends on the storage capacity of the growing medium at the start of a rainfall event. Storage capacity is finite, which makes rapid drainage and evapotranspiration loss critical for maximizing storage capacity between subsequent storms. Here the retention and attenuation of storm events are quantified for experimental green roof sites located in three representative Canadian climates corresponding to; semiarid conditions in Calgary, Alberta, moderate conditions in London, Ontario, and cool and humid conditions in Halifax, Nova Scotia. The storage recovery and storm water retention at each site is modelled using a modified water balance approach. Components of the water balance including evapotranspiration are predicted using climate data collected from 2012 to 2014 at each of the experimental sites. During the measurement period there were over 300 precipitation events ranging from small, frequent events (< 2 mm) to a storm with a 250 year return period. The modeling approach adopted provides a tool for planners to assess the feasibility of implementing green roofs in their respective climates.

Effects of acid deposition on dissolution of carbonate stone during summer storms in the Adirondack Mountains, New York, 1987-89

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Paul F.; Reddy, Michael M.; Sherwood, S.I.

1994-01-01

This study is part of a long-term research program designed to identify and quantify acid rain damage to carbonate stone. Acidic deposition accelerates the dissolution of carbonate-stone monuments and building materials. Sequential sampling of runoff from carbonate-stone (marble) and glass (reference) microcatchments in the Adirondack Mountains in New York State provided a detailed record of the episodic fluctuations in rain rate and runoff chemistry during individual summer storms. Rain rate and chemical concentrations from carbonate-stone and glass runoff fluctuated three to tenfold during storms. Net calcium-ion concentrations from the carbonatestone runoff, a measure of stone dissolution, typically fluctuated twofold during these storms. High net sulfate and net calcium concentrations in the first effective runoff at the start of a storm indicated that atmospheric pollutants deposited on the stone surface during dry periods formed calcium sulfate minerals, an important process in carbonate stone dissolution. Dissolution of the carbonate stone generally increased up to twofold during coincident episodes of low rain rate (less than 5 millimeters per hour) and decreased rainfall (glass runoff) pH (less than 4.0); episodes of high rain rate (cloudbursts) were coincident with a rapid increase in rainfall pH and also a rapid decrease in the dissolution of carbonate-stone. During a storm, it seems the most important factors causing increased dissolution of carbonate stone are coincident periods of low rain rate and decreased rainfall pH. Dissolution of the carbonate stone decreased slightly as the rain rate exceeded about 5 millimeters per hour, probably in response to rapidly increasing rainfall pH during episodes of high rain rate and shorter contact time between the runoff and the stone surface. High runoff rates resulting from cloudbursts remove calcium sulfate minerals formed during dry periods prior to storms and also remove dissolution products formed in large measure by chemical weathering as a result of episodes of low rain rate and decreased rainfall pH during a storm.

Positive cloud-to-ground lightning flashes in severe storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rust, W. D.; Macgorman, D. R.; Arnold, R. T.

1981-01-01

The occurrence of cloud-to-ground flashes that effectively lower positive charge to earth (+CG flash) over flat terrain has been documented in the mature stage of severe thunderstorms. Of the 31 documented +CG flashes, most had only one return stroke. Zero-to-peak rise times for the strokes averaged 7 microsec. The +CG flashes averaged 520 ms in duration, with 25 percent lasting more than 800 ms. Many of these had field changes suggestive of continuing current. Positive flashes have been observed to emanate from several regions of severe storms: high on the back of the main storm tower, through the wall cloud, and from the downshear anvil. Visually most of these positive flashes have emanated from high in the storm, and acoustic mapping of two shows thunder sources to a height of about 15 km.

Coastal monitoring solutions of the geomorphological response of beach-dune systems using multi-temporal LiDAR datasets (Vendée coast, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mauff, Baptiste; Juigner, Martin; Ba, Antoine; Robin, Marc; Launeau, Patrick; Fattal, Paul

2018-03-01

Three beach and dune systems located in the northeastern part of the Bay of Biscay in France were monitored over 5 years with a time series of three airborne LiDAR datasets. The three study sites illustrate a variety of morphological beach types found in this region. Reproducible monitoring solutions adapted to basic and complex beach and dune morphologies using LiDAR time series were investigated over two periods bounded by the three surveys. The first period (between May 2008 and August 2010) is characterized by a higher prevalence of storm events, and thus has a greater potential for eroding the coast, than the second period (between August 2010 and September 2013). During the first period, the central and northeastern part of the Bay of Biscay was notably impacted by Storm Xynthia, with water levels and wave heights exceeding the 10-year return period and 1-year return period, respectively. Despite differences in dune morphology between the sites, the dune crest (Dhigh) and the dune base (Dlow) are efficiently extracted from each DEM. Based on the extracted dune base, an original shoreline mobility indicator is built displaying a combination of the horizontal and vertical migrations of this geomorphic indicator between two LiDAR datasets. A 'Geomorphic Change Detection' is also completed by computing DEMs of Difference (DoD) resulting in segregated maps of erosion and deposition and sediment budgets. Accounting for the accuracy of LiDAR datasets, a probabilistic approach at a 95% confidence interval is used as a threshold for the Geomorphic Change Detection showing more reliable results. However, caution should be taken when interpreting thresholded maps of changes and sediment budgets because some beach processes may be masked, especially on wide tidal beaches, by only keeping the most significant changes. The results of the shoreline mobility and Geomorphic Change Detection show a high variability in the beach responses between and within the three study sites, explained mainly by beach orientation and local factors. Despite variable site-specific mechanisms, the recovery processes redistribute the available sand more on the upper parts of the beach, producing significant deposition generally in the form of embryo dunes. The monitoring of the beach and dune systems with airborne LiDAR datasets reveals that the three study sites show diverse behaviours during the first period likely associated with storms, while the analysis show more homogenous beach responses during the second period likely associated with a recovery phase.

On the secondary eyewall formation of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

PubMed Central

Abarca, Sergio F.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Braun, Scott A.; Dunion, Jason

2018-01-01

A first observationally-based estimation of departures from gradient wind balance during secondary eyewall formation is presented. The study is based on the Atlantic Hurricane Edouard (2014). This storm was observed during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) experiment, a field campaign conducted in collaboration with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A total of 135 dropsondes are analyzed in two separate time periods: one named the secondary eyewall formation period and the other one referred to as the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. During the secondary eyewall formation period, a time when the storm was observed to have only one eyewall, the diagnosed agradient force has a secondary maxima that coincides with the radial location of the secondary eyewall observed in the second period of study. The maximum spin up tendency of the radial influx of absolute vertical vorticity is within the boundary layer in the region of the eyewall of the storm and the spin up tendency structure elongates radially outward into the secondary region of supergradient wind, where the secondary wind maxima is observed in the second period of study. An analysis of the boundary-layer averaged vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature reveals a conditionally unstable environment in the secondary eyewall formation region. These findings support the hypothesis that deep convective activity in this region contributed to spin up of the boundary layer tangential winds and the formation of a secondary eyewall that is observed during the decaying-double eyewalled storm period. PMID:29651170

Impact of the Lower Atmosphere on the Ionosphere Response to a Geomagnetic Superstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.

2016-12-01

Numerical simulations in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) are performed to elucidate the impacts of lower atmosphere forcing on the ionosphere response to a geomagnetic superstorm. In particular, how the ionosphere variability due to the October 2003 Halloween storm would be different if it occurred in January coincident with a major sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) event is investigated. The TIE-GCM simulations reveal that the E x B vertical drift velocity and total electron content (TEC) respond differently to the geomagnetic disturbance when the lower atmosphere forcing is representative of SSW conditions compared to climatological lower atmosphere forcing conditions. Notably, the storm time variations in the E x B vertical drift velocity differ when the effects of the SSW are considered, and this is in part due to effects of the SSW on the equatorial ionosphere being potentially misinterpreted as being of geomagnetic origin. Differences in the TEC response to the geomagnetic storm can be up to 100% ( 30 TECU) of the storm induced TEC change, and the temporal variability of the TEC during the storm recovery phase is considerably different if SSW effects are considered. The results demonstrate that even during periods of extreme geomagnetic forcing it is important to consider the effects of lower atmosphere forcing on the ionosphere variability.

Return Migration as Failure or Success?: The Determinants of Return Migration Intentions Among Moroccan Migrants in Europe.

PubMed

de Haas, Hein; Fokkema, Tineke; Fihri, Mohamed Fassi

Different migration theories generate competing hypotheses with regard to determinants of return migration. While neoclassical migration theory associates migration to the failure to integrate at the destination, the new economics of labour migration sees return migration as the logical stage after migrants have earned sufficient assets and knowledge and to invest in their origin countries. The projected return is then likely to be postponed for sustained or indefinite periods if integration is unsuccessful. So, from an indication or result of integration failure return is rather seen as a measure of success. Drawing on recent survey data ( N  = 2,832), this article tests these hypotheses by examining the main determinants of return intention among Moroccan migrants across Europe. The results indicate that structural integration through labour market participation, education and the maintenance of economic and social ties with receiving countries do not significantly affect return intentions. At the same time, investments and social ties to Morocco are positively related, and socio-cultural integration in receiving countries is negatively related to return migration intentions. The mixed results corroborate the idea that there is no uniform process of (return) migration and that competing theories might therefore be partly complementary.

Seasonality, phytoplankton succession and the biogeochemical impacts of an autumn storm in the northeast Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Painter, Stuart C.; Finlay, Madelaine; Hemsley, Victoria S.; Martin, Adrian P.

2016-03-01

Phytoplankton chemotaxonomic distributions are examined in conjunction with taxon specific particulate biomass concentrations and phytoplankton abundances to investigate the biogeochemical consequences of the passage of an autumn storm in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. Chemotaxonomy indicated that the phytoplankton community was dominated by nanoplankton (2-20 μm), which on average represented 75 ± 8% of the community. Microplankton (20-200 μm) and picoplankton (<2 μm) represented 21 ± 7% and 4 ± 3% respectively with the microplankton group composed of almost equal proportions of diatoms (53 ± 17%) and dinoflagellates (47 ± 17%). Total chlorophyll-a (TCHLa = CHLa + Divinyl CHLa) concentrations ranged from 22 to 677 ng L-1, with DvCHLa making minor contributions of between <1% and 13% to TCHLa. Higher DvCHLa contributions were seen during the storm, which deepened the surface mixed layer, increased mixed layer nutrient concentrations and vertically mixed the phytoplankton community leading to a post-storm increase in surface chlorophyll concentrations. Picoplankton were rapid initial respondents to the changing conditions with pigment markers showing an abrupt 4-fold increase in proportion but this increase was not sustained post-storm. 19‧-HEX, a chemotaxonomic marker for prymnesiophytes, was the dominant accessory pigment pre- and post-storm with concentrations of 48-435 ng L-1, and represented 44% of total carotenoid concentrations. Accompanying scanning electron microscopy results support the pigment-based analysis but also provide detailed insight into the nano- and microplankton communities, which proved to be highly variable between pre-storm and post-storm sampling periods. Nanoplankton remained the dominant size class pre- and post-storm but the microplankton proportion peaked during the period of maximum nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations. Classic descriptions of autumn blooms resulting from storm driven eutrophication events promoting phytoplankton growth in surface waters should be tempered with greater understanding of the role of storm driven vertical reorganization of the water column and of resident phytoplankton communities. Crucially, in this case we observed no change in integrated chlorophyll, particulate organic carbon or biogenic silica concentrations despite also observing a ∼50% increase in surface chlorophyll concentrations which indicated that the surface enhancement in chlorophyll concentrations was most likely fed from below rather than resulting from in situ growth. Though not measured directly there was no evidence of enhanced export fluxes associated with this storm. These observations have implications for the growing practice of using chlorophyll fluorescence from remote platforms to determine ocean productivity late in the annual productivity period and in response to storm mixing.

Superstorms at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e)? Modeling paleo waves and the transport of giant boulders.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, Alessio; Harris, Daniel; Casella, Elisa; Lorscheid, Thomas; Stocchi, Paolo; Nandasena, Napayalage; Sandstrom, Michael; D'Andrea, William; Dyer, Blake; Raymo, Maureen

2017-04-01

We present the results of high-resolution field surveys and wave models along the cliffs of the northern part of the Island of Eleuthera, Bahamas. Previous studies have proposed that cliff top mega-boulders were emplaced at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128-116 ka) by giant swells caused by super-storms that find no counterpart in the Holocene (including historical times). Our results suggest that these boulders could have instead been transported from the cliff face to the top of the cliff by a storm analogous to the 1991 'Perfect Storm', if sea level during MIS 5e sea was more than 4 meters higher than today. We remark that the data-model approach used here is essential to interpreting the geologic evidence of extreme storms during past warm periods, which in turn, is an important tool for predicting the intensity of extreme storm events in future climates. Our results indicate that even without an increase in storm intensity, cliffs and hard coastal barriers might be subject to significant increases wave-generated stresses under conditions of sea levels modestly higher than present.

[Return to Work: A Workplace Focused Module to be Integrated in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy].

PubMed

Winter, Lotta; Kraft, Julia; Boss, Katharina; Kahl, Kai G

2015-08-01

Psychiatric disorders, in particular depression and anxiety disorders, are important causes of impaired job performance and increased sick leave. Longer periods of sickness leave lead regularly to difficulties concerning return to work. Furthermore, work is an important factor for psychological health. The central issue of the "return to work" (RTW) module by Lagerveldt and colleagues 5 is remission from psychiatric disorder, and structured support to return to work. The module is based on principles of cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), and can be integrated in standard CBT. Existing data from a randomized controlled trial suggest that treatment outcome concerning remission is similar between CBT supplemented with RTW (CBT-W) module and standard CBT. However, time to return to work is reduced in CBT-W. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Variability of tidal signals in the Brent Delta Front: New observations on the Rannoch Formation, northern North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Xiaojie; Steel, Ronald J.; Ravnås, Rodmar; Jiang, Zaixing; Olariu, Cornel; Li, Zhiyang

2016-04-01

Detailed observations on the Rannoch Formation in several deep Viking Graben wells indicate that the 'classical' wave-dominated Brent delta-front shows coupled storm-tide processes. The tidal signals are of three types: I): alternations of thick cross-laminated sandstone and thin mud-draped sandstone, whereby double mud drapes are prominent but discretely distributed, II): a few tidal bundles within bottomsets and foresets of up to 10 cm-thick sets cross-strata, and III): dm-thick heterolithic lamination showing multiple, well-organized sand-mud couplets. During progradation of the Brent Delta, the Rannoch shoreline system passed upward from 1) a succession dominated by clean-water, storm-event sets and cosets frequently and preferentially interbedded with type I tidal beds, and occasional types II and III tidal deposits, toward 2) very clean storm-event beds less frequently separated by types II and III tidal beds, and then into 3) a thin interval showing muddier storm-event beds mainly alternating with type II tidal beds. It is likely that those variations in preservation bias of storm and tidal beds in each facies succession result from combined effects of 1) the frequency and duration of storms; 2) river discharge; and 3) the absolute and relative strength of tides. Tidal deposits are interpreted as inter-storm, fair-weather deposits, occurred preferentially in longer intermittent fair-weather condition and periods of lower river discharge, and well-pronounced in the distal-reach of delta-front. The formation and preservation of tidal signals between storm beds, indicate that the studied Rannoch Formation was most likely a storm-dominated, tide-influenced delta front 1) near the mouth of a large Brent river, where a significant tidal prism and high tidal range might be expected, and 2) in a setting where there were relatively high sedimentation rates associated with high local subsidence rates, so that the storm waves did not completely rework the inter-storm deposits. The documentation of the unconventional Rannoch Formation contributes to our understanding of mixed-energy coastal systems.

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model which had been used for Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (Hall 2011) as well as North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis (Hall and Jewson 2007). The introduction of these tracks complements the shortage of the historical samples and allows for more reliable PDFs required for implementation of JPM-OS. Using the 33,731 tracks and JPM-OS, an optimal storm ensemble is determined. This approach results in different storms/winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, and produces different Base Flood Elevation maps for coastal regions. Coastal inundation maps produced by the two different methods will be discussed in detail in the poster paper.

Past storminess recorded in the internal architecture of coastal formations of Estonia in the NE Baltic Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tõnisson, Hannes; Vilumaa, Kadri; Kont, Are; Sugita, Shinya; Rosentau, Alar; Muru, Merle; Anderson, Agnes

2016-04-01

Over the past 50 years, storminess has increased in northern Europe because of the changes in cyclonic activity. The cyclone season in the Baltic Sea area has shifted from autumn to winter; this has led to intensification of shore processes (erosion, sediment transport and accumulation) and has increased pressure to the economy (land use, coastal protection measures) of the coastal regions in the Baltic states. Therefore, studing the effects of such changes on shore processes in the past is critical for prediction of the future changes along the Baltic coasts. Beach ridge plains are found worldwide, where cyclones and storm surges affect accumulation forms. These sandy shores are highly susceptible to erosion. Due to the isostatic uplift on the NE coast of the Baltic Sea, the signs of major past events are well-preserved in the internal architecture of old coastal formations (dune ridge-swale complexes). Wave-eroded scarps in beach deposits are visible in subsurface ground-penetrating radar (GPR) records, indicating the past high-energy events. Several study areas and transects were selected on the NW coast of Estonia, using high-resolution topographic maps (LiDAR). Shore-normal subsurface surveys have been conducted with a digital GSSI SIR-3000 georadar with a 270 MHz antenna at each transect. Interpretation of GPR facies was based on hand auger and window sampler coring, which provided accurate depths of key stratigraphic boundaries and bounding surfaces. Several samples for luminescence and 14C dating were collected to determine the approximate chronology of the coastal formations along the Estonian coast. We have found that changes in storminess, including the periods of high and low intensity of storms in late Holocene, are clearly reflected in the internal patterns of ancient coastal formations. The sections with small ridges with short seaward-dipped layers (interface between wave-built and aeolian deposits) in deeper horizons are probably formed during relatively calm periods. Such short seaward-dipped layers refer to low sea levels during their formation. More extensive layers reflect stronger storm events with higher water levels. Large amounts of sand in nearshore zone contribute to the formation of larger ridges. We have found at least three periods with high cyclonic activity and two relatively calm periods punctuated by few intense storms along the Estonian coast. In addition, a comparative study of the erosional palaeo-surfaces and recent storm monitoring data is currently underway for a better understanding, and thus a reliable reconstruction of the past storm parameters. Further studies are required for a better chronology of coastal events to clarify the periodicity of storminess in this part of the Baltic Sea region. The findings of the current study will contribute to the forecast of future scenarios in regional storm risk assessment of the coastal areas. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This work has been funded by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research and by the Estonian Science Foundation grants No. 7564, 8549, 9191, 9011, IUT18-9, PUT456, the BONUS project BaltCoast and Doctoral School of Earth Sciences and Ecology (EU Structural Support).

Coho salmon spawner mortality in western US urban watersheds: bioinfiltration prevents lethal storm water impacts.

PubMed

Spromberg, Julann A; Baldwin, David H; Damm, Steven E; McIntyre, Jenifer K; Huff, Michael; Sloan, Catherine A; Anulacion, Bernadita F; Davis, Jay W; Scholz, Nathaniel L

2016-04-01

Adult coho salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch return each autumn to freshwater spawning habitats throughout western North America. The migration coincides with increasing seasonal rainfall, which in turn increases storm water run-off, particularly in urban watersheds with extensive impervious land cover. Previous field assessments in urban stream networks have shown that adult coho are dying prematurely at high rates (>50%). Despite significant management concerns for the long-term conservation of threatened wild coho populations, a causal role for toxic run-off in the mortality syndrome has not been demonstrated.We exposed otherwise healthy coho spawners to: (i) artificial storm water containing mixtures of metals and petroleum hydrocarbons, at or above concentrations previously measured in urban run-off; (ii) undiluted storm water collected from a high traffic volume urban arterial road (i.e. highway run-off); and (iii) highway run-off that was first pre-treated via bioinfiltration through experimental soil columns to remove pollutants.We find that mixtures of metals and petroleum hydrocarbons - conventional toxic constituents in urban storm water - are not sufficient to cause the spawner mortality syndrome. By contrast, untreated highway run-off collected during nine distinct storm events was universally lethal to adult coho relative to unexposed controls. Lastly, the mortality syndrome was prevented when highway run-off was pretreated by soil infiltration, a conventional green storm water infrastructure technology.Our results are the first direct evidence that: (i) toxic run-off is killing adult coho in urban watersheds, and (ii) inexpensive mitigation measures can improve water quality and promote salmon survival. Synthesis and applications . Coho salmon, an iconic species with exceptional economic and cultural significance, are an ecological sentinel for the harmful effects of untreated urban run-off. Wild coho populations cannot withstand the high rates of mortality that are now regularly occurring in urban spawning habitats. Green storm water infrastructure or similar pollution prevention methods should be incorporated to the maximal extent practicable, at the watershed scale, for all future development and redevelopment projects, particularly those involving transportation infrastructure.

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era.

PubMed

Reed, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P; Kemp, Andrew C; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2015-10-13

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States' Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850-1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970-2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

PubMed Central

Reed, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Lin, Ning; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2015-01-01

In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (A.D. 1851 to present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sea level records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from A.D. 850 to A.D. 2005. We compare pre-anthropogenic era (A.D. 850–1800) and anthropogenic era (A.D.1970–2005) storm surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ∼1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ∼A.D. 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500-y return period for a ∼2.25-m flood height during the pre-anthropogenic era has decreased to ∼24.4 y in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies. PMID:26417111

Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) Events Under Non-storm Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazykin, S. Y.; Coster, A. J.; Huba, J.; Spiro, R. W.; Baker, J. B.; Kunduri, B.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Erickson, P. J.; Wolf, R.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream, or SAPS, structures, defined here as latitudinally narrow channels of enhanced westward plasma convection in the evening ionosphere equatorward of the auroral electron precipitation boundary, is most dramatic during geomagnetic storms. However, SAPS-like structures known as Polarization Jets or SAIDs (Sub-Auroral Ion Drift events) are also frequently observed during non-storm conditions, typically during periods of isolated substorm activity or during bursts of enhanced convection associated with southward IMF Bz component. This paper presents results from data analysis and numerical simulations of several SAPS/SAID events observed during non-storm conditions. We use convection velocity measurements from the mid-latitude chain of SuperDARN radars and cross-track drift meter data from DMSP spacecraft to identify SAPS/SAID and to characterize their structure and temporal evolution. DMSP topside ion density data and high-resolution ground-based GPS total electron content (TEC) maps are used to determine the ionospheric and plasmaspheric morphology of SAPS regions. DMSP electron precipitation data are used to determine auroral boundaries. We also present simulation results of the chosen event intervals obtained with the SAMI3-RCM ionosphere-magnetosphere coupled model. Observational results are analyzed to identify systematic differences between non-storm SAPS/SAID and the picture that has emerged based on previous storm time studies. Simulation results are used to provide physical interpretation of these differences.

Ionosonde observations of the effects of the major magnetic storm of September 22-26, 1999 at equatorial station in west Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coulibaly, I. S.; Adohi, B. J.-P.; Tanoh, K. S.

2018-05-01

A new approach to study the mechanisms of storm-time variations in the F-layer height and critical frequency at dip-equator is proposed. The latitudinal variations in the magnetic disturbance index DP were combined with h'F and foF2 data from an IPS 42-type ionosonde at Korkogo (9.2° N, 5° W; 2.4° S dip lat), Ivory Coast, to investigate the nighttime ionospheric effects of the geomagnetic storm of September 22-26, 1999 in the West-African sector. A clear equatorward penetration of magnetic disturbances from high latitudes regions was observed. At dip-equator, the DP magnetic disturbance pattern showed up to four distinct regimes of disturbance electric fields, each associated with a specific phase of the storm. A regime of westward transient electric fields followed by a regime of eastward transient electric fields occurred during the main phase of the storm. This was preceded by a period of quasi-absence of disturbance during the compression phase, the whole followed by a regime of westward persistent disturbance electric fields during the recovery phase. From the latitudinal variations and the shapes of these perturbations, we could associate the regime of westward (resp. eastward) disturbance electric fields with prompt penetration (resp. overshielding) occasioned by magnetospheric convections and the persistent one with a cumulative effect of storm-time winds and magnetospheric convections from high latitudes regions. The h'F variations were found to be strongly correlated with the DP ones, clearly providing evidence for the prevalence of these electric fields on the observed F-layer motions. Additionally, the foF2 variations showed two periods of depleted electron density, one in the evening during the compression phase of the storm and the other near midnight. We discussed the mechanisms of these ionospheric negative storms in the light of earlier investigations of storm-time ionospheric disturbances and validated our method by comparison of the above results with those based on criteria by other authors.

The deadliest storm of the 20th century striking Portugal: Flood impacts and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo M.; Ramos, Catarina; Pereira, Susana S.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Zêzere, José L.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2016-10-01

The deadliest storm affecting Portugal since, at least, the early 19th century, took place on the 25 and 26 November 1967 causing more than 500 fatalities. This work aims to assess the most relevant aspects of this episode. This includes describing the associated meteorological conditions and key hydrological characterisation such as the level of exceptionality of the observed precipitation at different temporal scales, or the estimation of peak discharge values in 20 small river catchments affected. Additionally, from a human impact perspective we provide a full account of all the main socio-economic impacts, particularly the numbers and location of victims (dead, injured, homeless and evacuated). Based on the sub-daily time series of a representative station, and its Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves, we have found that the exceptionality of this rainfall event is particularly linked to rainfall intensities ranging in duration from 4 to 9 h compatible with return periods of 100-years or more. This range of time scale which are similar to the estimated concentration time values of the hydrographic basins affected by the flash flood event. From a meteorological perspective, this episode was characterised by strong convection at the regional scale, fuelled by high availability of moisture over the Lisbon region associated with a low pressure system centered near Lisbon that favoured the convective instability. Most victims were sleeping or were caught by surprise at home in the small river catchments around the main Lisbon metropolitan area. The majority of people who died or who were severely affected by the flood lived in degraded housing conditions often raised in a clandestine way, occupying flood plains near the stream beds. This level of destruction observed at the time is in stark contrast to what was observed in subsequent episodes of similar amplitude. In particular, since 1967 the Lisbon area, was struck by two comparable intense precipitation events in 1983 and 2008 but generating considerably fewer deaths and evacuated people.

Space Weathering Perspectives on Europa Amidst the Tempest of the Jupiter Magnetospheric System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, J. F.; Hartle, R. E.; Lipatov, A. S.; Sittler, E. C.; Cassidy, T. A.; Ip. W.-H.

2010-01-01

Europa resides within a "perfect storm" tempest of extreme external field, plasma, and energetic particle interactions with the magnetospheric system of Jupiter. Missions to Europa must survive, functionally operate, make useful measurements, and return critical science data, while also providing full context on this ocean moon's response to the extreme environment. Related general perspectives on space weathering in the solar system are applied to mission and instrument science requirements for Europa.

Predictions and Observations of Munitions Burial Under Intense Storm Waves at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calantoni, J.; Klammer, H.; Sheremet, A.

2017-12-01

The fate of munitions or unexploded ordnance (UXO) resting on a submarine sediment bed is a critical safety concern. Munitions may remain in place or completely disappear for significant but unknown periods, after becoming buried in the sediment bed. Clearly, burial of munitions drastically complicates the detection and removal of potential threats. Here, we present field data of wave height and surrogate munitions burial depths near the 8-m isobath at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility, Duck, North Carolina, observed between January and March 2015. The experiment captured a remarkable sequence of storms that included at least 10 events, of which 6 were characterized by wave fields of significant heights exceeding 2 m and with peak periods of approximately 10 s. During the strongest storm, waves of 14 s period and heights exceeding 2 m were recorded for more than 3 days; significant wave height reached 5 m at the peak of activity. At the end of the experiment, divers measured munition burial depths of up to 60 cm below the seabed level. However, the local bathymetry showed less than 5 cm variation between the before and after-storm states, suggesting the local net sediment accumulation / loss was negligible. The lack of bathymetric variability strongly suggests that the munitions sank into the bed, which would suggest an extreme state of sand agitation during the storm. We explore existing analytical solutions for the dynamic interaction between waves and sediment to predict munitions burial depths. Measured time series of wave pressure near the sediment bed were converted into wave-induced changes in pore pressures and the effective stress states of the sediment. Different sediment failure criteria based on minimum normal and maximum shear stresses were then applied to evaluate the appropriateness of individual failure criteria to predict observed burial depths. Results are subjected to a sensitivity analysis with respect to uncertain sediment parameters and summarized by representing cumulative failure times as a function of depth.

The effect of chamber mixing velocity on bias in measurement of sediment oxygen demand rates in the Tualatin River basin, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, Micelis C.; Rounds, Stewart

2003-01-01

The same resuspension effect probably exists in the Tualatin River during storm-runoff events following prolonged periods of low flow, when increased stream velocity may result in the resuspension of bottom sediments. The resuspension causes increased turbidity and increased oxygen demand, resulting in lower instream dissolved oxygen concentrations.

Evidence Report: Risk of Spaceflight Associated Neuro-ocular Syndrome (SANS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stenger, Michael B.; Tarver, William J.; Brunstetter, Tyson; Gibson, Charles Robert; Laurie, Steven S.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Macias, Brandon R.; Mader, Thomas H.; Otto, Christian; Smith, Scott M.;

Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

2015-04-01

In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused disasters around the world. To prevent losses by floods, levees have often been constructed in inundation-prone areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao First Levee in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered: the slope sliding failure of the levee and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variability of the in situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the change of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee could fail with slope sliding for all values of the water level difference. The results of levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could aid engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

Episodic Eolian Sand Deposition in the Past 4000 Years in Cape COD National Seashore, Massachusetts, USA in Response to Possible Hurricane/storm and Anthropogenic Disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forman, Steven

2015-02-01

The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and <250 years ago. The two oldest events are documented at just one locality and thus, the pervasiveness of this eolian activity is unknown. However, the four younger events are identified in three or more sites and show evidence for dune migration and sand sheet accretion. The timing of eolian deposition, particularly the initiation age, corresponds to documented periods of increased storminess/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

Different erosion characteristics of sediment deposits in combined and storm sewers.

PubMed

Xu, Zuxin; Wu, Jun; Li, Huaizheng; Liu, Zhenghua; Chen, Keli; Chen, Hao; Xiong, Lijun

2017-04-01

To investigate the different erosion patterns of sediments in combined and storm sewers, sediments from three separate sewer systems and two combined sewer systems in urban Shanghai were collected for the flushing experiments. These experiments were conducted with different consolidation periods and shear velocities. As the consolidation period increases, dissolved oxygen exhibits a positive effect on the microbial transformations of organic substrates. Potential structural changes and separations of the surface and bottom layers of sediments are observed. The results also reveal that the organic matter, particle size and moisture have different effects on the erosion resistance of sediments. Furthermore, illicit connections behaved as an important factor affecting the viscosity and static friction force of particles, which directly alter the erosion resistance of sewer sediments.

Characteristics of the April 2007 Flood at 10 Streamflow-Gaging Stations in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Carlson, Carl S.

2009-01-01

A large 'nor'easter' storm on April 15-18, 2007, brought heavy rains to the southern New England region that, coupled with normal seasonal high flows and associated wet soil-moisture conditions, caused extensive flooding in many parts of Massachusetts and neighboring states. To characterize the magnitude of the April 2007 flood, a peak-flow frequency analysis was undertaken at 10 selected streamflow-gaging stations in Massachusetts to determine the magnitude of flood flows at 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year return intervals. The magnitude of flood flows at various return intervals were determined from the logarithms of the annual peaks fit to a Pearson Type III probability distribution. Analysis included augmenting the station record with longer-term records from one or more nearby stations to provide a common period of comparison that includes notable floods in 1936, 1938, and 1955. The April 2007 peak flow was among the highest recorded or estimated since 1936, often ranking between the 3d and 5th highest peak for that period. In general, the peak-flow frequency analysis indicates the April 2007 peak flow has an estimated return interval between 25 and 50 years; at stations in the northeastern and central areas of the state, the storm was less severe resulting in flows with return intervals of about 5 and 10 years, respectively. At Merrimack River at Lowell, the April 2007 peak flow approached a 100-year return interval that was computed from post-flood control records and the 1936 and 1938 peak flows adjusted for flood control. In general, the magnitude of flood flow for a given return interval computed from the streamflow-gaging station period-of-record was greater than those used to calculate flood profiles in various community flood-insurance studies. In addition, the magnitude of the updated flood flow and current (2008) stage-discharge relation at a given streamflow-gaging station often produced a flood stage that was considerably different than the flood stage indicated in the flood-insurance study flood profile at that station. Equations for estimating the flow magnitudes for 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year floods were developed from the relation of the magnitude of flood flows to drainage area calculated from the six streamflow-gaging stations with the longest unaltered record. These equations produced a more conservative estimate of flood flows (higher discharges) than the existing regional equations for estimating flood flows at ungaged rivers in Massachusetts. Large differences in the magnitude of flood flows for various return intervals determined in this study compared to results from existing regional equations and flood insurance studies indicate a need for updating regional analyses and equations for estimating the expected magnitude of flood flows in Massachusetts.

Forested Wetlands: Functions, Benefits and the Use of Best Management Practices

Treesearch

David J. Welsch; David L. Smart; James N. Boyer; Paul Minken; Howard C. Smith; Tamara L. McCandless

1995-01-01

Wetlands are complex and fascinating ecosystems that perform a variety of functions of vital importance to the environment and to the society whose very existence depends on the quality of the environment. Wetlands regulate water flow by detaining storm flows for short periods thus reducing Wetlands protect lake shore and coastal areas by buffering the erosive action...

Comparison of storm response of streams in small, unmined and valley-filled watersheds, 1999-2001, Ballard fork, West Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Messinger, Terence

2003-01-01

During storms when rainfall intensity exceeded about 1 inch per hour, peak unit runoff from the Unnamed Tributary (surface-mined and filled) Watershed exceeded peak unit runoff from the Spring Branch (unmined) Watershed in the Ballard Fork Watershed in southern West Virginia. During most storms, those with intensity less than about 1 inch per hour, peak unit (area-normalized) flows were greater from the Spring Branch Watershed than the Unnamed Tributary Watershed. One storm that produced less than an inch of rain before flow from the previous storm had receded caused peak unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed to exceed peak unit flow from the Spring Branch Watershed. Peak unit flow was usually similar in Spring Branch and Ballard Fork. Peak unit flows are expected to decrease with increasing watershed size in homogeneous watersheds; drainage area and proportion of the three watersheds covered by valley fills are 0.19 square mile (mi?) and 44 percent for the Unnamed Tributary Watershed, 0.53 mi? and 0 percent for the Spring Branch Watershed, and 2.12 mi? and 12 percent for the Ballard Fork Watershed. Following all storms with sufficient rainfall intensity, about 0.25 inches per hour, the storm hydrograph from the Unnamed Tributary Watershed showed a double peak, as a sharp initial rise was followed by a decrease in flow and then a delayed secondary peak of water that had apparently flowed through the valley fill. Hortonian (excess overland) flow may be important in the Unnamed Tributary Watershed during intense storms, and may cause the initial peak on the rising arm of storm hydrographs; the water composing the initial peaks may be conveyed by drainage structures on the mine. Ballard Fork and Spring Branch had hydrographs with single peaks, typical of elsewhere in West Virginia. During all storms with 1-hour rainfall greater than 0.75 inches or 24-hour rainfall greater than 1.75 inches during which all stream gages recorded a complete record, the Unnamed Tributary yielded the most total unit flow. In three selected major storms, total unit flow from the Unnamed Tributary during recessions exceeded storm flow, and its total unit flow was greatest among the streams during all three recessions. Runoff patterns from the mined watershed are influenced by the compaction of soils on the mine, the apparent low maximum rate of infiltration into the valley fill compared to that in the unmined, forested watershed, storage of water in the valley fill, and the absence of interception from trees and leaf litter. No storms during this study produced 1-hour or 24-hour rainfall in excess of the 5-year return period, and streamflow during this study never exceeded a magnitude equivalent to the 1.5-year return period; relative peak unit flow among the three streams in this study could be different in larger storms. Rainfall-runoff relations on altered landscapes are site-specific, and aspects of mining and reclamation practice that affect storm response may vary among mines.

Tropical cyclones cause CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater in a high-CO2 world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzello, Derek; Enochs, Ian; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Carlton, Renée.; Gledhill, Dwight

2013-10-01

Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2 system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current "business-as-usual" CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol % high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater will occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs.

Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Kopp, Robert E.; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B.; Horton, Benjamin P.; DeConto, Robert M.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Pollard, David

2017-11-01

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ˜500 y before 1800 to ˜25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ˜5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse.

Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

PubMed Central

Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Alley, Richard B.; Horton, Benjamin P.; DeConto, Robert M.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Pollard, David

2017-01-01

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse. PMID:29078274

Low latitude ionospheric TEC responses to dynamical complexity quantifiers during transient events over Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogunsua, Babalola

2018-04-01

In this study, the values of chaoticity and dynamical complexity parameters for some selected storm periods in the year 2011 and 2012 have been computed. This was done using detrended TEC data sets measured from Birnin-Kebbi, Torro and Enugu global positioning system (GPS) receiver stations in Nigeria. It was observed that the significance of difference (SD) values were mostly greater than 1.96 but surprisingly lower than 1.96 in September 29, 2011. The values of the computed SD were also found to be reduced in most cases just after the geomagnetic storm with immediate recovery a day after the main phase of the storm while the values of Lyapunov exponent and Tsallis entropy remains reduced due to the influence of geomagnetic storms. It was also observed that the value of Lyapunov exponent and Tsallis entropy reveals similar variation pattern during storm period in most cases. Also recorded surprisingly were lower values of these dynamical quantifiers during the solar flare event of August 8th and 9th of the year 2011. The possible mechanisms responsible for these observations were further discussed in this work. However, our observations show that the ionospheric effects of some other possible transient events other than geomagnetic storms can also be revealed by the variation of chaoticity and dynamical complexity.

Global ionospheric dynamics and electrodynamics during geomagnetic storms (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mannucci, A. J.; Tsurutani, B.; Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Komjathy, A.; Butala, M. D.

2013-12-01

Globally distributed total electron content (TEC) data has become an important tool for exploring the consequences of storm-time electrodynamics. Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling during the main phase is responsible for the largest ionospheric effects observed during geomagnetic storms, mediated by global scale electrodynamics. Recent research using case studies reveals a complex picture of M-I coupling and its relationship to interplanetary drivers such as the solar wind electric field. Periods of direct coupling exist where the solar wind electric field is strongly correlated with prompt penetration electric fields, observed as enhanced vertical plasma drifts or an enhanced electrojet in the daytime equatorial ionosphere. Periods of decoupling between low latitude electric fields and the solar wind electric field are also observed, but the factors distinguishing these two types of response have not been clearly identified. Recent studies during superstorms suggest a role for the transverse (y-component) of the interplanetary magnetic field, which affects magnetospheric current systems and therefore may affect M-I coupling, with significant ionospheric consequences. Observations of the global ionospheric response to a range of geomagnetic storm intensities are presented. Scientific understanding of the different factors that affect electrodynamic aspects of M-I coupling are discussed.

Contribution of storms to shoreline changes in mesotidal dissipative beaches: case study in the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puig, María; Del Río, Laura; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Benavente, Javier

2016-12-01

In this study an analysis of storminess and rates of shoreline change is performed and discussed jointly in four geomorphological units of the Gulf of Cádiz (SW Spain) for the period of 1956-2010. For this purpose, storm events are identified based on the following characteristics: wave height above 2.5 m, a minimum duration of 12 h and events with calm periods of less than 24 h were considered as a single event. Subsequently, energy parameters are determined in order to characterize storm-induced impacts. Conversely, geographic information system (GIS) tools are used to measure shoreline changes in aerial photographs and orthophotographs of each site, selecting the high water line as shoreline proxy. Each geomorphological unit is divided into different behavioural patterns according to recorded coastal changes, so that each one shows a particular behaviour.In general the variability of shoreline changes that is explained by storms and the relation between storm parameters and coastal changes present better results in exposed areas (Cádiz and Vistahermosa) than in sheltered areas (Valdelagrana spit barrier) because the former are more sensitive to storm impacts. On the contrary, in areas where there is no relation between coastal changes and storm parameters (Valdelagrana and Sancti Petri sand spit), it is suggested that anthropogenic factors are the main forcing agents determining shoreline behaviour. However, in these areas the storminess also modulates coastline recession by increasing erosion when the number of storms is high.

A storm-based CSLE incorporating the modified SCS-CN method for soil loss prediction on the Chinese Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Wenhai; Huang, Mingbin

2017-04-01

The Chinese Loess Plateau is one of the most erodible areas in the world. In order to reduce soil and water losses, suitable conservation practices need to be designed. For this purpose, there is an increasing demand for an appropriate model that can accurately predict storm-based surface runoff and soil losses on the Loess Plateau. The Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) has been widely used in this region to assess soil losses from different land use types. However, the CSLE was intended only to predict the mean annual gross soil loss. In this study, a CSLE was proposed that would be storm-based and that introduced a new rainfall-runoff erosivity factor. A dataset was compiled that comprised measurements of soil losses during individual storms from three runoff-erosion plots in each of three different watersheds in the gully region of the Plateau for 3-7 years in three different time periods (1956-1959; 1973-1980; 2010-13). The accuracy of the soil loss predictions made by the new storm-based CSLE was determined using the data for the six plots in two of the watersheds measured during 165 storm-runoff events. The performance of the storm-based CSLE was further compared with the performance of the storm-based Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) for the same six plots. During the calibration (83 storms) and validation (82 storms) of the storm-based CSLE, the model efficiency, E, was 87.7% and 88.9%, respectively, while the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.7 and 2.3 t ha-1 indicating a high degree of accuracy. Furthermore, the storm-based CSLE performed better than the storm-based RULSE (E: 75.8% and 70.3%; RMSE: 3.8 and 3.7 t ha-1, for the calibration and validation storms, respectively). The storm-based CSLE was then used to predict the soil losses from the three experimental plots in the third watershed. For these predictions, the model parameter values, previously determined by the calibration based on the data from the initial six plots, were used in the storm-based CSLE. In addition, the surface runoff used by the storm-based CSLE was either obtained from measurements or from the values predicted by the modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. When using the measured runoff, the storm-based CSLE had an E of 76.6%, whereas the use of the predicted runoff gave an E of 76.4%. The high E values indicated that the storm-based CSLE incorporating the modified SCS-CN method could accurately predict storm-event-based soil losses resulting from both sheet and rill erosion at the field scale on the Chinese Loess Plateau. This approach could be applicable to other areas of the world once the model parameters have been suitably calibrated.

Return period adjustment for runoff coefficients based on analysis in undeveloped Texas watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dhakal, Nirajan; Fang, Xing; Asquith, William H.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Thompson, David B.

2013-01-01

The rational method for peak discharge (Qp) estimation was introduced in the 1880s. The runoff coefficient (C) is a key parameter for the rational method that has an implicit meaning of rate proportionality, and the C has been declared a function of the annual return period by various researchers. Rate-based runoff coefficients as a function of the return period, C(T), were determined for 36 undeveloped watersheds in Texas using peak discharge frequency from previously published regional regression equations and rainfall intensity frequency for return periods T of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years. The C(T) values and return period adjustments C(T)/C(T=10  year) determined in this study are most applicable to undeveloped watersheds. The return period adjustments determined for the Texas watersheds in this study and those extracted from prior studies of non-Texas data exceed values from well-known literature such as design manuals and textbooks. Most importantly, the return period adjustments exceed values currently recognized in Texas Department of Transportation design guidance when T>10  years.

Tropical Cyclones Cause CaCO3 Undersaturation of Coral Reef Seawater in a High-CO2 World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzello, D.; Enochs, I.; Carlton, R.; Musielewicz, S.; Gledhill, D. K.

2013-12-01

Ocean acidification is the global decline in seawater pH and calcium carbonate (CaCO3) saturation state (Ω) due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the world's oceans. Acidification impairs CaCO3 shell and skeleton construction by marine organisms. Coral reefs are particularly vulnerable, as they are constructed by the CaCO3 skeletons of corals and other calcifiers. We understand relatively little about how coral reefs will respond to ocean acidification in combination with other disturbances, such as tropical cyclones. Seawater carbonate chemistry data collected from two reefs in the Florida Keys before, during, and after Tropical Storm Isaac provide the most thorough data to-date on how tropical cyclones affect the seawater CO2-system of coral reefs. Tropical Storm Isaac caused both an immediate and prolonged decline in seawater pH. Aragonite saturation state was depressed by 1.0 for a full week after the storm impact. Based on current 'business-as-usual' CO2 emissions scenarios, we show that tropical cyclones with high rainfall and runoff can cause periods of undersaturation (Ω < 1.0) for high-Mg calcite and aragonite mineral phases at acidification levels before the end of this century. Week-long periods of undersaturation occur for 18 mol% high-Mg calcite after storms by the end of the century. In a high-CO2 world, CaCO3 undersaturation of coral reef seawater can occur as a result of even modest tropical cyclones. The expected increase in the strength, frequency, and rainfall of the most severe tropical cyclones with climate change in combination with ocean acidification will negatively impact the structural persistence of coral reefs over this century.

Employment of the 307th Medical Battalion (Airborne) in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm: A Personal Experience Monograph

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-05-08

proficiency and significantly improving the Division return to duty rate. When someone said it could never be done I was even more determined to get one. I...the outgoing MSC usually displaced the executive officer, who displaced someone else, etc., creating a whole new chain of discontent. In other cases...discovered someone from the 44th Medical Brigade had gone out of their way to tell the ARCENT contracting office that the battalion didn’t need a

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

[Simulation of rainfall and snowmelt runoff reduction in a northern city based on combination of green ecological strategies.

PubMed

Han, Jin Feng; Liu, Shuo; Dai, Jun; Qiu, Hao

2018-02-01

With the aim to control and reduce rainfall and snowmelt runoff in northern cities in China, the summer runoff and spring snowmelt runoff in the studied area were simulated with the establishment of storm water management model (SWMM). According to the climate characteristics and the situation of the studied area, the low impact development (LID) green ecological strategies suitable for the studied area were established. There were three kinds of management strategies being used, including extended green roof, snow and rainwater harvesting devices, and grass-swales or trenches. We examined the impacts of those integrated green ecological measures on the summer rainfall and spring snowmelt runoff and their mitigation effects on the drainage network pressure. The results showed that the maximum flow rates of the measured rainfall in May 24th, June 10th and July 18th 2016 were 2.7, 6.2 and 7.4 m 3 ·s -1 respectively. The peak flow rates at different return periods of 1, 2, 5, 10 years were 2.39, 3.91, 6.24 and 7.85 m 3 ·s -1 , respectively. In the snowmelt period, the peak flow appeared at the beginning of March. The LID measures had positive effect on peak flow reduction, and thus delayed peak time and relieved drainage pressure. The flow reduction rate was as high as 70%. Moreover, the snow harvesting devices played a positive role in controlling snowmelt runoff in spring.

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Ethiopia and the neighboring region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, Atalay

2017-10-01

Seismic hazard calculation is carried out for the Horn of Africa region (0°-20° N and 30°-50°E) based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) method. The earthquakes catalogue data obtained from different sources were compiled, homogenized to Mw magnitude scale and declustered to remove the dependent events as required by Poisson earthquake source model. The seismotectonic map of the study area that avails from recent studies is used for area sources zonation. For assessing the seismic hazard, the study area was divided into small grids of size 0.5° × 0.5°, and the hazard parameters were calculated at the center of each of these grid cells by considering contributions from all seismic sources. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years were calculated for all the grid points using generic rock site with Vs = 760 m/s. Obtained values vary from 0.0 to 0.18 g and 0.0-0.35 g for 475 and 2475 return periods, respectively. The corresponding contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values for the two return periods are presented here. Uniform hazard response spectrum (UHRS) for 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and hazard curves for PGA and 0.2 s spectral acceleration (Sa) all at rock site are developed for the city of Addis Ababa. The hazard map of this study corresponding to the 475 return periods has already been used to update and produce the 3rd generation building code of Ethiopia.

Impact of hurricanes storm surges on the groundwater resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Biersel, T. P.; Carlson, D.A.; Milner, L.R.

2007-01-01

Ocean surges onto coastal lowlands caused by tropical and extra tropical storms, tsunamis, and sea level rise affect all coastal lowlands and present a threat to drinking water resources of many coastal residents. In 2005, two such storms, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita struck the Gulf Coast of the US. Since September 2005, water samples have been collected from water wells impacted by the hurricanes' storm surges along the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain in southeastern Louisiana. The private and public water wells tested were submerged by 0.6-4.5 m of surging saltwater for several hours. The wells' casing and/or the associated plumbing were severely damaged. Water samples were collected to determine if storm surge water inundated the well casing and, if so, its effect on water quality within the shallow aquifers of the Southern Hills Aquifer System. In addition, the samples were used to determine if the impact on water quality may have long-term implication for public health. Laboratory testing for several indicator parameters (Ca/Mg, Cl/Si, chloride, boron, specific conductance and bacteria) indicates that surge water entered water wells' casing and the screened aquifer. Analysis of the groundwater shows a decrease in the Ca/Mg ratio right after the storm and then a return toward pre-Katrina values. Chloride concentrations were elevated right after Katrina and Rita, and then decreased downward toward pre-Katrina values. From September 2005 to June 2006, the wells showed improvement in all the saltwater intrusion indicators. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

Impacts on Coralligenous Outcrop Biodiversity of a Dramatic Coastal Storm

PubMed Central

Teixidó, Núria; Casas, Edgar; Cebrián, Emma; Linares, Cristina; Garrabou, Joaquim

2013-01-01

Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006–2008) and after the impact (2009–2010) at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates) was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change. PMID:23326496

Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.

PubMed

Garner, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Kopp, Robert E; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B; Horton, Benjamin P; DeConto, Robert M; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Pollard, David

2017-11-07

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Clinic to Cockpit: Analysis of Aviator Grounding Periods Due to Psychiatric Disorders

DTIC Science & Technology

2018-06-01

The process to return U.S. Air Force aviators to flying status due to psychiatric conditions involves multiple parties and can be lengthy. We...examined grounding periods in a sample of aircrew to determine the causes of grounded time and to explore possible improvement in the waiver system. The...authors examined aeromedical records of 41 aviators treated with antidepressant medication to determine three metrics: total days grounded, days utilized

Peak discharge, flood frequency, and peak stage of floods on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado, and Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado, 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kohn, Michael S.; Stevens, Michael R.; Mommandi, Amanullah; Khan, Aziz R.

2017-12-14

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Colorado Department of Transportation, determined the peak discharge, annual exceedance probability (flood frequency), and peak stage of two floods that took place on Big Cottonwood Creek at U.S. Highway 50 near Coaldale, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Big Cottonwood Creek site”), on August 23, 2016, and on Fountain Creek below U.S. Highway 24 in Colorado Springs, Colorado (hereafter referred to as “Fountain Creek site”), on August 29, 2016. A one-dimensional hydraulic model was used to estimate the peak discharge. To define the flood frequency of each flood, peak-streamflow regional-regression equations or statistical analyses of USGS streamgage records were used to estimate annual exceedance probability of the peak discharge. A survey of the high-water mark profile was used to determine the peak stage, and the limitations and accuracy of each component also are presented in this report. Collection and computation of flood data, such as peak discharge, annual exceedance probability, and peak stage at structures critical to Colorado’s infrastructure are an important addition to the flood data collected annually by the USGS.The peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site was 917 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater). The peak discharge of the August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site was 5,970 ft3/s with a measurement quality of poor (uncertainty plus or minus 25 percent or greater).The August 23, 2016, flood at the Big Cottonwood Creek site had an annual exceedance probability of less than 0.01 (return period greater than the 100-year flood) and had an annual exceedance probability of greater than 0.005 (return period less than the 200-year flood). The August 23, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm), which is a statistically common (high probability) storm. The Big Cottonwood Creek site is downstream from the Hayden Pass Fire burn area, which dramatically altered the hydrology of the watershed and caused this statistically rare (low probability) flood from a statistically common (high probability) storm. The peak flood stage at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 50 culvert was 6,438.32 feet (ft) above the North American Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88).The August 29, 2016, flood at the Fountain Creek site had an estimated annual exceedance probability of 0.5505 (return period equal to the 1.8-year flood). The August 29, 2016, flood event was caused by a precipitation event having an annual exceedance probability of 1.0 (return period of 1 year, or the 1-year storm). The peak stage during this flood at the cross section closest to the U.S. Highway 24 bridge was 5,832.89 ft (NAVD 88).Slope-area indirect discharge measurements were carried out at the Big Cottonwood Creek and Fountain Creek sites to estimate peak discharge of the August 23, 2016, flood and August 29, 2016, flood, respectively. The USGS computer program Slope-Area Computation Graphical User Interface was used to compute the peak discharge by adding the surveyed cross sections with Manning roughness coefficient assignments to the high-water marks. The Manning roughness coefficients for each cross section were estimated in the field using the Cowan method.

The Significance of the Record Length in Flood Frequency Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senarath, S. U.

2013-12-01

Of all of the potential natural hazards, flood is the most costly in many regions of the world. For example, floods cause over a third of Europe's average annual catastrophe losses and affect about two thirds of the people impacted by natural catastrophes. Increased attention is being paid to determining flow estimates associated with pre-specified return periods so that flood-prone areas can be adequately protected against floods of particular magnitudes or return periods. Flood frequency analysis, which is conducted by using an appropriate probability density function that fits the observed annual maximum flow data, is frequently used for obtaining these flow estimates. Consequently, flood frequency analysis plays an integral role in determining the flood risk in flood prone watersheds. A long annual maximum flow record is vital for obtaining accurate estimates of discharges associated with high return period flows. However, in many areas of the world, flood frequency analysis is conducted with limited flow data or short annual maximum flow records. These inevitably lead to flow estimates that are subject to error. This is especially the case with high return period flow estimates. In this study, several statistical techniques are used to identify errors caused by short annual maximum flow records. The flow estimates used in the error analysis are obtained by fitting a log-Pearson III distribution to the flood time-series. These errors can then be used to better evaluate the return period flows in data limited streams. The study findings, therefore, have important implications for hydrologists, water resources engineers and floodplain managers.

Modeling the distribution of extreme share return in Malaysia using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Husna; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad; Kassim, Suraiya

2012-05-01

Extreme share return in Malaysia is studied. The monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum returns are fitted to the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests are performed to test for stationarity, while Mann-Kendall (MK) test is for the presence of monotonic trend. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate the parameter while L-moments estimate (LMOM) is used to initialize the MLE optimization routine for the stationary model. Likelihood ratio test is performed to determine the best model. Sherman's goodness of fit test is used to assess the quality of convergence of the GEV distribution by these monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum. Returns levels are then estimated for prediction and planning purposes. The results show all maximum returns for all selection periods are stationary. The Mann-Kendall test indicates the existence of trend. Thus, we ought to model for non-stationary model too. Model 2, where the location parameter is increasing with time is the best for all selection intervals. Sherman's goodness of fit test shows that monthly, quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum converge to the GEV distribution. From the results, it seems reasonable to conclude that yearly maximum is better for the convergence to the GEV distribution especially if longer records are available. Return level estimates, which is the return level (in this study return amount) that is expected to be exceeded, an average, once every t time periods starts to appear in the confidence interval of T = 50 for quarterly, half yearly and yearly maximum.

Up-to-date Probabilistic Earthquake Hazard Maps for Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaber, Hanan; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Badawy, Ahmed

2018-04-01

An up-to-date earthquake hazard analysis has been performed in Egypt using a probabilistic seismic hazard approach. Through the current study, we use a complete and homogenous earthquake catalog covering the time period between 2200 BC and 2015 AD. Three seismotectonic models representing the seismic activity in and around Egypt are used. A logic-tree framework is applied to allow for the epistemic uncertainty in the declustering parameters, minimum magnitude, seismotectonic setting and ground-motion prediction equations. The hazard analysis is performed for a grid of 0.5° × 0.5° in terms of types of rock site for the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration at 0.2-, 0.5-, 1.0- and 2.0-s periods. The hazard is estimated for three return periods (72, 475 and 2475 years) corresponding to 50, 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The uniform hazard spectra for the cities of Cairo, Alexandria, Aswan and Nuwbia are constructed. The hazard maps show that the highest ground acceleration values are expected in the northeastern part of Egypt around the Gulf of Aqaba (PGA up to 0.4 g for return period 475 years) and in south Egypt around the city of Aswan (PGA up to 0.2 g for return period 475 years). The Western Desert of Egypt is characterized by the lowest level of hazard (PGA lower than 0.1 g for return period 475 years).

Ice on waterfowl markers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenwood, R.J.; Bair, W.C.

1974-01-01

Wild and captive giant Canada geese (Branta canadensis maxima) and captive mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) accumulated ice on neck collars and/or nasal saddles during winter storm periods in 1971 and 1972. Weather conditions associated with icing were documented, and characteristics of icing are discussed. Severe marker icing occurred during subfreezing weather when the windchill reached approximately -37 deg.C. Birds appeared able to de-ice nasal saddles in most instances.

The Importance of Primary Martian Surface and Airfall Dust Sample Return for Toxicological Hazard Evaluations for Human Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrington, A. D.; McCubbin, F. M.

2018-01-01

Manned missions to the Moon highlight a major hazard for future human exploration of the Moon and beyond: surface dust. Not only did the dust cause mechanical and structural integrity issues with the suits, the dust 'storm' generated upon reentrance into the crew cabin caused "lunar hay fever" and "almost blindness" . It was further reported that the allergic response to the dust worsened with each exposure. Due to the prevalence of these high exposures, the Human Research Roadmap developed by NASA identifies the Risk of Adverse Health and Performance Effects of Celestial Dust Exposure as an area of concern. Extended human exploration will further increase the probability of inadvertent and repeated exposures to celestial dusts. Going forward, hazard assessments of celestial dusts will be determined through sample return efforts prior to astronaut deployment.

Computing return times or return periods with rare event algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lestang, Thibault; Ragone, Francesco; Bréhier, Charles-Edouard; Herbert, Corentin; Bouchet, Freddy

2018-04-01

The average time between two occurrences of the same event, referred to as its return time (or return period), is a useful statistical concept for practical applications. For instance insurances or public agencies may be interested by the return time of a 10 m flood of the Seine river in Paris. However, due to their scarcity, reliably estimating return times for rare events is very difficult using either observational data or direct numerical simulations. For rare events, an estimator for return times can be built from the extrema of the observable on trajectory blocks. Here, we show that this estimator can be improved to remain accurate for return times of the order of the block size. More importantly, we show that this approach can be generalised to estimate return times from numerical algorithms specifically designed to sample rare events. So far those algorithms often compute probabilities, rather than return times. The approach we propose provides a computationally extremely efficient way to estimate numerically the return times of rare events for a dynamical system, gaining several orders of magnitude of computational costs. We illustrate the method on two kinds of observables, instantaneous and time-averaged, using two different rare event algorithms, for a simple stochastic process, the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process. As an example of realistic applications to complex systems, we finally discuss extreme values of the drag on an object in a turbulent flow.

Making Culverts Great Again: Modeling Road Culvert Vulnerability to Assist Prioritization of Local Infrastructure Investment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gold, D.; Walter, M. T.; Watkins, L.; Kaufman, Z.; Meyer, A.; Mahaney, M.

2016-12-01

The concurrent threats posed by climate change and aging infrastructure have become of increasing concern in recent years. In the Northeastern US, storms such as Hurricane Irene and Super Storm Sandy have highlighted the vulnerability of infrastructure to extreme weather events, which are projected to become more frequent under future climate change scenarios. Road culverts are one type of infrastructure that is particularly vulnerable to such threats. Culverts allow roads to safely traverse small streams or drainage ditches, and their proper design is critical to ensuring a safe and reliable transportation network. Much of the responsibility for designing and maintaining road culverts lies at the local level, but many local governments lack the resources to quantify the vulnerability of their culverts to major storms. This study contributes a model designed to assist local governments in rapidly assessing the vulnerability of large numbers of culverts and identifies common characteristics of vulnerable culverts. Model inputs include culvert geometry and location data collected by trained local field teams. The model uses custom tools created in ArcGIS and Python to determine the maximum return period storm that each culvert can safely convey under current and projected future rainfall regimes. As a demonstration, over 1000 culverts in New York State were modeled. It was found that a significant percentage of modeled culverts failed to convey the current 5 year return period storm event (deemed a failure) and this percentage increased under projected future rainfall conditions. The model results were analyzed to determine correlations between culvert characteristics and failure. Characteristics investigated included watershed size, road type (state, county or local), affluence of the surrounding area and suitability for aquatic organism passage. Results from this study can be used by local governments to quantify and characterize the vulnerability of current infrastructure and prioritize future infrastructure investment.

Future projections of insured losses in the German private building sector following the A1B climatic change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Held, H.; Gerstengarbe, F.-W.; Hattermann, F.; Pinto, J. G.; Ulbrich, U.; Böhm, U.; Born, K.; Büchner, M.; Donat, M. G.; Kücken, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Nissen, K.; Nocke, T.; Österle, H.; Pardowitz, T.; Werner, P. C.; Burghoff, O.; Broecker, U.; Kubik, A.

2012-04-01

We present an overview of a complementary-approaches impact project dealing with the consequences of climate change for the natural hazard branch of the insurance industry in Germany. The project was conducted by four academic institutions together with the German Insurance Association (GDV) and finalized in autumn 2011. A causal chain is modeled that goes from global warming projections over regional meteorological impacts to regional economic losses for private buildings, hereby fully covering the area of Germany. This presentation will focus on wind storm related losses, although the method developed had also been applied in part to hail and flood impact losses. For the first time, the GDV supplied their collected set of insurance cases, dating back for decades, for such an impact study. These data were used to calibrate and validate event-based damage functions which in turn were driven by three different types of regional climate models to generate storm loss projections. The regional models were driven by a triplet of ECHAM5 experiments following the A1B scenario which were found representative in the recent ENSEMBLES intercomparison study. In our multi-modeling approach we used two types of regional climate models that conceptually differ at maximum: a dynamical model (CCLM) and a statistical model based on the idea of biased bootstrapping (STARS). As a third option we pursued a hybrid approach (statistical-dynamical downscaling). For the assessment of climate change impacts, the buildings' infrastructure and their economic value is kept at current values. For all three approaches, a significant increase of average storm losses and extreme event return levels in the German private building sector is found for future decades assuming an A1B-scenario. However, the three projections differ somewhat in terms of magnitude and regional differentiation. We have developed a formalism that allows us to express the combined effect of multi-source uncertainty on return levels within the framework of a generalized Pareto distribution.

Study of the mid-latitude ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms in the European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berényi, Kitti Alexandra; Barta, Veronika; Kis, Arpad

2016-07-01

Geomagnetic storms affect the ionospheric regions of the terrestrial upper atmosphere through different physical and atmospheric processes. The phenomena that can be regarded as a result of these processes, generally is named as "ionospheric storm". The processes depend on altitude, segment of the day, the geomagnetic latitude and longitude, strength of solar activity and the type of the geomagnetic storm. We examine the data of ground-based radio wave ionosphere sounding measurements of European ionospheric stations (mainly the data of Nagycenk Geophysical Observatory) in order to determine how and to what extent a geomagnetic disturbance of a certain strength affects the mid-latitude ionospheric regions in winter and in summer. For our analysis we used disturbed time periods between November 2012 and June 2015. Our results show significant changing of the ionospheric F2 layer parameters on strongly disturbed days compared to quiet ones. We show that the critical frequencies (foF2) increase compared to their quiet day value when the ionospheric storm was positive. On the other hand, the critical frequencies become lower, when the storm was negative. In our analysis we determined the magnitude of these changes on the chosen days. For a more complete analysis we compare also the evolution of the F2 layer parameters of the European ionosonde stations on a North-South geographic longitude during a full storm duration. The results present the evolution of an ionospheric storm over a geographic meridian. Furthermore, we compared the two type of geomagnetic storms, namely the CME caused geomagnetic storm - the so-called Sudden impulse (Si) storms- and the HSS (High Speed Solar Wind Streams) caused geomagnetic storms -the so-called Gradual storms (Gs)- impact on the ionospheric F2-layer (foF2 parameter). The results show a significant difference between the effect of Si and of the Gs storms on the ionospheric F2-layer.

Changes in US extreme sea levels and the role of large scale climate variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Chambers, D. P.

2015-12-01

We analyze a set of 20 tide gauge records covering the contiguous United States (US) coastline and the period from 1929 to 2013 to identify long-term trends and multi-decadal variations in extreme sea levels (ESLs) relative to changes in mean sea level (MSL). Significant but small long-term trends in ESLs above/below MSL are found at individual sites along most coastline stretches, but are mostly confined to the southeast coast and the winter season when storm surges are primarily driven by extra-tropical cyclones. We identify six regions with broadly coherent and considerable multi-decadal ESL variations unrelated to MSL changes. Using a quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis approach we show that the latter would have caused variations in design relevant return water levels (RWLs; 50 to 200 year return periods) ranging from ~10 cm to as much as 110 cm across the six regions. To explore the origin of these temporal changes and the role of large-scale climate variability we develop different sets of simple and multiple linear regression models with RWLs as dependent variables and climate indices, or tailored (toward the goal of predicting multi-decadal RWL changes) versions of them, and wind stress curl as independent predictors. The models, after being tested for spatial and temporal stability, explain up to 97% of the observed variability at individual sites and almost 80% on average. Using the model predictions as covariates for the quasi-non-stationary extreme value analysis also significantly reduces the range of change in the 100-year RWLs over time, turning a non-stationary process into a stationary one. This highlights that the models - when used with regional and global climate model output of the predictors - should also be capable of projecting future RWL changes to be used by decision makers for improved flood preparedness and long-term resiliency.

Kinetic energy budgets in areas of convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1979-01-01

Synoptic scale budgets of kinetic energy are computed using 3 and 6 h data from three of NASA's Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE's). Numerous areas of intense convection occurred during the three experiments. Large kinetic energy variability, with periods as short as 6 h, is observed in budgets computed over each entire experiment area and over limited volumes that barely enclose the convection and move with it. Kinetic energy generation and transport processes in the smaller volumes are often a maximum when the enclosed storms are near peak intensity, but the nature of the various energy processes differs between storm cases and seems closely related to the synoptic conditions. A commonly observed energy budget for peak storm intensity indicates that generation of kinetic energy by cross-contour flow is the major energy source while dissipation to subgrid scales is the major sink. Synoptic scale vertical motion transports kinetic energy from lower to upper levels of the atmosphere while low-level horizontal flux convergence and upper-level horizontal divergence also occur. Spatial fields of the energy budget terms show that the storm environment is a major center of energy activity for the entire area.

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Ruckert, Kelsey L; Oddo, Perry C; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies.

Climate Change Implications and Use of Early Warning Systems for Global Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harriman, L.

2014-12-01

Increased changes in land cover and global climate have led to increased frequency and/or intensity of dust storms in some regions of the world. Early detection and warning of dust storms, in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts, will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts to people and the environment. Since frequency and intensity of dust storms can vary from region to region, there is a demonstrated need for more research to be conducted over longer periods of time to analyze trends of dust storm events [1]. Dust storms impact their origin area, but also land, water and people a great distance away from where dust finally settles [2, 3]. These transboundary movements and accompanying impacts further warrant the need for global collaboration to help predict the onset, duration and path of a dust storm. Early warning systems can help communicate when a dust storm is occurring, the projected intensity of the dust storm and its anticipated physical impact over a particular geographic area. Development of regional dust storm models, such as CUACE/Dust for East Asia, and monitoring networks, like the Sand and Dust Storm Warning Network operated by the World Meteorological Organization, and the use of remote sensing and satellite imagery derived products [4], including MODIS, are currently being incorporated into early warning and monitoring initiatives. However, to increase future certainty of impacts of dust storms on vulnerable populations and ecosystems, more research is needed to analyze the influences of human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns on dust storm generation, movement and impact. Sources: [1] Goudie, A.S. (2009), Dust storms: recent developments, J Environ. Manage., 90. [2] Lee, H., and Liu, C. (2004), Coping with dust storm events: information, impacts, and policymaking in Taiwan, TAO, 15(5). [3] Marx, S.K., McGowan, H.A., and Balz, K.S. (2009), Long-range dust transport from eastern Australia: a proxy for Holocene aridity and ENSO-type climate variability, Earth Planet Sci. Lett., 282. [4] Kimura, R. (2012), Factors contributing to dust storms in source regions producing the yellow-sand phenomena observed in Japan from 1993 to 2002, J. Arid Environ. 80

The effect of Hurricane Katrina: births in the U.S. Gulf Coast region, before and after the storm.

PubMed

Hamilton, Brady E; Sutton, Paul D; Mathews, T J; Martin, Joyce A; Ventura, Stephanie J

2009-08-28

This report presents birth data for the region affected by Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall along the Gulf Coast of the United States on August 29, 2005, comparing the 12-month periods before and after the storm according to a wide variety of characteristics. Data are presented for maternal demographic characteristics including age, race, Hispanic origin, marital status, and educational attainment; medical care utilization by pregnant women (prenatal care and method of delivery); and infant characteristics or birth outcomes (period of gestation and birthweight). Descriptive tabulations of data reported on the birth certificates of residents of the 91 Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)-designated counties and parishes of Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi are presented for the 12-month periods before and after Hurricane Katrina struck, from August 29, 2004, through August 28, 2006. Detailed data are shown separately for 14 selected, FEMA-designated coastal counties and parishes within a 100-mile radius of the Hurricane Katrina storm path, the area hit very hard by the storm and subsequent flooding. These 14 selected coastal counties and parishes are a subset of the 91 FEMA-designated counties and parishes. The total number of births in the 14 selected FEMA-designated counties and parishes decreased 19 percent in the 12 months after Hurricane Katrina compared with the 12 months before, with births declining in the selected counties and parishes of Louisiana and Mississippi and rising in the counties of Alabama. The number of births to non-Hispanic black women in the selected parishes of Louisiana fell substantially after Hurricane Katrina; births declined for non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, and Asian or Pacific Islander women in these selected parishes as well. The percentage of births to women under age 20 years for the selected counties and parishes after the storm was essentially unchanged in Alabama and Mississippi, but decreased in Louisiana. The proportion of births to unmarried women decreased in the selected parishes of Louisiana, but increased in the selected counties elsewhere. Large decreases were observed in very preterm and very low birthweight rates for the selected parishes of Louisiana following Hurricane Katrina, whereas a large increase was observed in very preterm births for the selected counties of Alabama.

Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brook, Marx

1993-01-01

We have been focusing our study of electrification in winter storms on the lightning initiation process, making inferences about the magnitude of the electric fields from the initial pulses associated with breakdown, i.e., with the formation of the initial streamers. The essence of the most significant finding is as follows: (1) initial breakdown radiation pulses from stepped leaders prior to the first return stroke are very large, reaching values of 20-30 Volts/meter, comparable to return stroke radiation; and (2) the duration of the stepped leader, from the initial detectable radiation pulse to the return stroke onset, is very-short-ranging from a minimum 1.5 ms to a maximum of 4.5 ms. This past summer (June-August of 1991) we participated in the CAPE program at the Kennedy Space Center in order to acquire data on stepped leaders in summer storms with the same equipment used to get the winter storm data. We discovered that the vigorous leaders seen in winter so frequently were present in summer storms, although not as large in amplitude and certainly not as frequent.

Surface Wave Dynamics in the Coastal Zone

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

also collected from the Duck measurement site, operated by the USACE Field Research Facility at Duck , North Carolina. The collection and validation...similar analysis for 10 storm periods using wave data collected at Duck , North Carolina. The preparations consist of creating a dedicated unstructured...validated in the Southern North Sea and Duck validation studies. The shallow water source terms for wave breaking and triad interactions are being

Impacts of representing sea-level rise uncertainty on future flood risks: An example from San Francisco Bay

PubMed Central

Oddo, Perry C.; Keller, Klaus

2017-01-01

Rising sea levels increase the probability of future coastal flooding. Many decision-makers use risk analyses to inform the design of sea-level rise (SLR) adaptation strategies. These analyses are often silent on potentially relevant uncertainties. For example, some previous risk analyses use the expected, best, or large quantile (i.e., 90%) estimate of future SLR. Here, we use a case study to quantify and illustrate how neglecting SLR uncertainties can bias risk projections. Specifically, we focus on the future 100-yr (1% annual exceedance probability) coastal flood height (storm surge including SLR) in the year 2100 in the San Francisco Bay area. We find that accounting for uncertainty in future SLR increases the return level (the height associated with a probability of occurrence) by half a meter from roughly 2.2 to 2.7 m, compared to using the mean sea-level projection. Accounting for this uncertainty also changes the shape of the relationship between the return period (the inverse probability that an event of interest will occur) and the return level. For instance, incorporating uncertainties shortens the return period associated with the 2.2 m return level from a 100-yr to roughly a 7-yr return period (∼15% probability). Additionally, accounting for this uncertainty doubles the area at risk of flooding (the area to be flooded under a certain height; e.g., the 100-yr flood height) in San Francisco. These results indicate that the method of accounting for future SLR can have considerable impacts on the design of flood risk management strategies. PMID:28350884

Quantifying the role of climate variability on extreme total water level impacts: An application of a full simulation model to Ocean Beach, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.; Barnard, P.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

Many coastal communities worldwide are vulnerable to flooding and erosion driven by extreme total water levels (TWL), potentially dangerous events produced by the combination of large waves, high tides, and high non-tidal residuals. The West coast of the United States provides an especially challenging environment to model these processes due to its complex geological setting combined with uncertain forecasts for sea level rise (SLR), changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños. Our research therefore aims to develop an appropriate methodology to assess present-day and future storm-induced coastal hazards along the entire U.S. West coast, filling this information gap. We present the application of this framework in a pilot study at Ocean Beach, California, a National Park site within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area where existing event-scale coastal change data can be used for model calibration and verification. We use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (TWL-FSM; Serafin and Ruggiero, in press) that captures the seasonal and interannual climatic variability in extremes using functions of regional climate indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), to represent atmospheric patterns related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to characterize the effect of climate variability on TWL components, we refine the TWL-FSM by splitting non-tidal residuals into low (monthly mean sea level anomalies) and high frequency (storm surge) components. We also develop synthetic climate indices using Markov sequences to reproduce the autocorrelated nature of ENSO behavior. With the refined TWL-FSM, we simulate each TWL component, resulting in synthetic TWL records providing robust estimates of extreme return level events (e.g., the 100-yr event) and the ability to examine the relative contribution of each TWL component to these extreme events. Extreme return levels are then used to drive storm impact models to examine the probability of coastal change (Stockdon et al., 2013) and thus, the vulnerability to storm-induced coastal hazards that Ocean Beach faces. Future climate variability is easily incorporated into this framework, allowing us to quantify how an evolving climate will alter future extreme TWLs and their related coastal impacts.

Effect of geomagnetic storms on VHF scintillations observed at low latitude

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, S. B.; Patel, Kalpana; Singh, A. K.

2018-06-01

A geomagnetic storm affects the dynamics and composition of the ionosphere and also offers an excellent opportunity to study the plasma dynamics. In the present study, we have used the VHF scintillations data recorded at low latitude Indian station Varanasi (Geomag. latitude = 14^{°}55^' }N, long. = 154^{°}E) which is radiated at 250 MHz from geostationary satellite UFO-02 during the period 2011-2012 to investigate the effects of geomagnetic storms on VHF scintillation. Various geomagnetic and solar indices such as Dst index, Kp index, IMF Bz and solar wind velocity (Vx) are used to describe the geomagnetic field variation observed during geomagnetic storm periods. These indices are very helpful to find out the proper investigation and possible interrelation between geomagnetic storms and observed VHF scintillation. The pre-midnight scintillation is sometimes observed when the main phase of geomagnetic storm corresponds to the pre-midnight period. It is observed that for geomagnetic storms for which the recovery phase starts post-midnight, the probability of occurrence of irregularities is enhanced during this time and extends to early morning hours.

Sedimentology and hydrodynamic implications of a coarse-grained hurricane sequence in a carbonate reef setting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spiske, M.; Jaffe, B.E.

2009-01-01

Storms and associated surges are major coast-shaping processes. Nevertheless, no typical sequences for storm surge deposits in different coastal settings have been established. This study interprets a coarse-grained hurricane ridge deposit on the island of Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles. The sequence was deposited during Hurricane Lenny in November 1999. Insight is gained into the hydrodynamics of surge flow by interpreting textural trends, particle imbrication, and deposit geometry. Vertical textural variations, caused by time-dependent hydrodynamic changes, were used to subdivide the deposit into depositional units that correspond to different stages of the surge, such as setup, peak, and return flow. Particle size and imbrication trends and geometry of the units reflect landward bed-load transport of components during the setup, a nondirectional flow with sediment falling out of suspension during the peak, and a seaward bedload transport during the return flow. Formation of a ridge during setup affected the texture of the return flow unit. Changing angles of imbrication reflect alternating flow velocities during each phase. Normal grading during setup and inverse grading during return flow are caused by decelerating and accelerating flow, respectively. Hence, the interpreted deposit seems to represent the first described complete hurricane surge sequence from a carbonate environment. ?? 2009 Geological Society of America.

[Factors influencing users' destination upon discharge from a geriatric intermediate care facility in an urban area].

PubMed

Ishizaki, T; Kai, I; Hirayama, T

1995-02-01

Geriatric Intermediate Care Facilities (GICF) have been established to help the hospitalized elderly return home. Users of the GICF are elderly persons who do not need hospitalization, but are mentally or physically impaired. To determine what factors influence users' destinations upon discharge from GICF, we analyzed various characteristics such as age, sex, place of residence before admission, length of stay, intellectual impairment, ability to perform activities of daily living (ADL) among users (N = 389) in a GICF in Chiba City. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that, compared with the users who were hospitalized, users who were male, admitted for home, stayed for long periods, and had a high ability to perform ADL were more likely to return home. The analyses also revealed that, compared with the users who were institutionalized, users who came from home, stayed for short periods, and had a high ability to perform ADL were more likely to return home. Evaluating a user's physical, mental, and socioeconomical conditions at an early stage of admission to a GICF may allow us to predict whether the user can be successfully discharged to his or her home or will have to remain at the GICF for an extended period.

Levee reliability analyses for various flood return periods - a case study in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.-C.; Yu, H.-W.; Weng, M.-C.

2015-01-01

In recent years, heavy rainfall conditions have caused damages around the world. To prevent damages by floods, levees have often been constructed in prone-to-inundation areas. This study performed reliability analyses for the Chiuliao 1st Levee located in southern Taiwan. The failure-related parameters were the water level, the scouring depth, and the in-situ friction angle. Three major failure mechanisms were considered, including the slope sliding failure of the levee, and the sliding and overturning failures of the retaining wall. When the variabilities of the in-situ friction angle and the scouring depth are considered for various flood return periods, the variations of the factor of safety (FS) for the different failure mechanisms show that the retaining wall sliding and overturning failures are more sensitive to the variability of the friction angle. When the flood return period is greater than 2 years, the levee can undergo slope sliding failure for all values of the water level difference. The results for levee stability analysis considering the variability of different parameters could assist engineers in designing the levee cross sections, especially with potential failure mechanisms in mind.

Comparison of LFM-test particle simulations and radial diffusion models of radiation belt electron injection into the slot region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, F.; Hudson, M.; Kress, B.

2008-12-01

The physics-based Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) code simulates Earth's magnetospheric topology and dynamics by solving the equations of ideal MHD using input solar wind parameters at the upstream boundary. Comparison with electron phase space density evolution during storms using a radial diffusion code, as well as spacecraft measurements where available, will tell us when diffusion is insufficiently accurate for radiation belt simulation, for example, during CME-shock injection events like March 24, 1991, which occurred on MeV electron drift time scales of minutes (Li et al., 1993). The 2004 July and 2004 November storms, comparable in depth of penetration into the slot region to the Halloween 2003 storm, have been modeled with both approaches. The November 8, 2004 storm was preceded by a Storm Sudden Commencement produced by a CME-shock followed by minimum Dst = -373 nT, while the July 23 to July 28 storm interval had milder consecutive drops in Dst, corresponding to multiple CME shocks and southward IMF Bz turnings. We have run the November and July storms with LFM using ACE data as upstream input, running the July storm with lower temporal resolution over a longer time interval. The November storm was different because the SCC shock was unusually intense, therefore the possibility of drift time scale acceleration by the associated magnetosonic impulse produced by the shock exists, as in March 1991 and also Halloween 2003 events (Kress et al., 2007). It can then take a short time (minutes) for electrons to be transported to low L shell while conserving their first invariant, resulting in a peak in energy and phase space density in the slot region. Radial diffusion suffices for some storm periods like the July 2004 sequence of three storms, while the guiding center test particle simulation in MHD fields is necessary to describe prompt injections which occur faster than diffusive time scales, for which November 2004 is a likely candidate. Earlier examples have been studied, including the Kress et al., 2007 study of the Halloween 2003 storm and Li et al., 1993 study of the March 24, 1991 injection event with MHD simulation carried out by Elkington et al. (2002) for this event. Radial diffusion remains the best approach for extended relatively quiet periods like the two month interval following the March 1991 prompt injection. Strong shocks will inject particles into lower L shell within a few minutes violating the third adiabatic invariant, so the diffusion mechanism cannot be adopted for sudden commencements, when Dst increases then decreases drastically; however particle tracing in time-dependent MHD fields will give an accurate estimation, so radial diffusion and particle tracing in MHD fields complement each other in radiation belt studies. Elkington, S. R., M.K. Hudson, M.J. Wiltberger, J.G. Lyon (2002) JASTP, 64, p. 607-615; Kress B. T., M. K. Hudson, M. D. Looper, J. Albert, J. G. Lyon, C. C. Goodrich (2007), J. Geophys. Res., 112, A09215, doi:10.1029/2006JA012218; Li, X., I. Roth, M. Temerin, J. R. Wygant, M. K. Hudson, and J. B. Blake (1993), Geophys. Res. Lett., 20, p. 2423-2426.

Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool for the identification of hotspots along the Emilia-Romagna coastline (northern Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Duo, Enrico; Ciavola, Paolo

2017-04-01

The Emilia-Romagna coastline is located in northern Italy, facing the Adriatic sea. The area is especially exposed to the flooding hazard because of its low lying nature, high urbanisation and the large exploitation of beach resources for tourism. The identification of hotspots where marine flooding can cause significant damages is, therefore, a key issue. The methodology implemented to identify hotspots is based on the Coastal Risk Assessment Framework tool that was developed in the RISC-KIT project (www.risckit.eu). The tool combines the hazard component with different exposure indicators and is applied along predefined coastal sectors of almost 1 Km alongshore length. The coastline was divided into 106 sectors in which each component was analysed. The hazard part was evaluated through the computation of maximum water levels, obtained as the sum of wave set-up, storm surge and tide, calculated along representative beach profiles, one per sector, and for two return periods (10 and 100 years). The data for the computation of the maximum water level were extracted from the literature. The landward extension of flood-prone areas in each sector was the extension of the flood maps produced by the regional authorities for the EU Flood Directive and for the same return periods. The exposure indicators were evaluated taking into account the location and type of different assets in each sector and in flood-prone areas. Specifically, the assets that were taken into account are: the transport network, the utilities (water, gas and electricity) networks, the land use typologies, the social vulnerability status of the population and the business sector. Each component was then ranked from 1 to 5, considering a scale based on their computed value (hazard), importance and location (exposure indicators). A final coastal index (CI) was computed as the root mean square of the geometrical mean of the exposure indicators multiplied by the hazard indicator. Land use typologies were valued taking into account a classification produced by the regional authorities for the Flood Directive. The social vulnerability status of the population was derived from data produced by the National Statistic Institute. The regional managers provided the location of transport and utilities networks. The business indicator was built considering the tourist arrivals in each coastal municipality compared to the total number of arrivals. The results showed that the coast is very exposed to flooding and that the 100 year return period event leads to the identification of a large number of hotspots (65 over 106) defined as sectors with CI > 2.5. The main drivers for the hotspot identification were the hazard indicator and the land use typologies, because important transport/utilities network are not located in flood-prone areas. The most critical sectors are situated in the central-southern part of the coastline, where the most attractive tourist facilities are located and where the coastal corridor is occupied by a continuous urbanisation.

Relationships between convective storms and their environment in AVE IV determined from a three-dimensional subsynoptic-scale, trajectory model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.

1977-01-01

The paper describes interrelationships between synoptic-scale and convective-scale systems obtained by following individual air parcels as they traveled within the convective storm environment of AVE IV. (NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment, AVE IV, was a 36-hour study in April 1975 of the atmospheric variability and structure in regions of convective storms.) A three-dimensional trajectory model was used to calculate parcel paths, and manually digitized radar was employed to locate convective activity of various intensities and to determine those trajectories that traversed the storm environment. Spatial and temporal interrelationships are demonstrated by reference to selected time periods of AVE IV which contain the development and movement of the squall line in which the Neosho tornado was created.

Increases in flood magnitudes in California under warming climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Das, Tapash; Maurer, Edwin P.; Pierce, David W.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Cayah, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

Downscaled and hydrologically modeled projections from an ensemble of 16 Global Climate Models suggest that flooding may become more intense on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada mountains, the primary source for California’s managed water system. By the end of the 21st century, all 16 climate projections for the high greenhouse-gas emission SRES A2 scenario yield larger floods with return periods ranging 2–50 years for both the Northern Sierra Nevada and Southern Sierra Nevada, regardless of the direction of change in mean precipitation. By end of century, discharges from the Northern Sierra Nevada with 50-year return periods increase by 30–90% depending on climate model, compared to historical values. Corresponding flood flows from the Southern Sierra increase by 50–100%. The increases in simulated 50 year flood flows are larger (at 95% confidence level) than would be expected due to natural variability by as early as 2035 for the SRES A2 scenario.

A wavelet-based evaluation of time-varying long memory of equity markets: A paradigm in crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Pei P.; Chin, Cheong W.; Galagedera, Don U. A.

2014-09-01

This study, using wavelet-based method investigates the dynamics of long memory in the returns and volatility of equity markets. In the sample of five developed and five emerging markets we find that the daily return series from January 1988 to June 2013 may be considered as a mix of weak long memory and mean-reverting processes. In the case of volatility in the returns, there is evidence of long memory, which is stronger in emerging markets than in developed markets. We find that although the long memory parameter may vary during crisis periods (1997 Asian financial crisis, 2001 US recession and 2008 subprime crisis) the direction of change may not be consistent across all equity markets. The degree of return predictability is likely to diminish during crisis periods. Robustness of the results is checked with de-trended fluctuation analysis approach.

Characterization of Water Quality Changes During Storm Events: New Methods to Protect Drinking Water Supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturdevant-Rees, P. L.; Long, S. C.; Barten, P. K.

2002-05-01

A forty-month investigation to collect microbial and water-quality measurements during storm events under a variety of meteorological and land-use conditions is in its initial stages. Intense sampling during storm event periods will be used to optimize sampling and analysis strategies for accurate determination of constituent loads. Of particular interest is identification of meteorological and hydrologic conditions under which sampling and analysis of surface waters for traditional microbial organisms, emerging microbial organisms and non-bacterial pathogens are critical to ensure the integrity of surface-water drinking supplies. This work is particular to the Quabbin-Ware-Wachusett reservoir system in Massachusetts, which provides unfiltered drinking water to 2.5 million people in Boston and surrounding communities. Sampling and analysis strategies will be optimized in terms of number of samples over the hydrograph, timing of sample collection (including sample initiation), constituents measured, volumes analyzed, and monetary and personnel costs. Initial water-quality analyses include pH, temperature, turbidity, conductivity, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, total Kjeldahl-nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, and total and fecal coliforms. Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts will also be measured at all sample sites. Sorbitol-fermenting Bifidobacteria, Rhodococcus coprophilus, Clostridium perfringens spores, and Somatic and F-specific coliphages are measured at select sites as potential alternative source-specific indicator organisms. It is anticipated that the final database will consist of transport data for the above parameters during twenty-four distinct storm-events in addition to monthly baseline data. Results and analyses for the first monitored storm-event will be presented.

Diazinon and chlorpyrifos loads in the San Joaquin River basin, California, January and February 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kratzer, Charles R.; Zamora, Celia; Knifong, Donna L.

2002-01-01

The application of diazinon and chlorpyrifos on dormant orchards in 2000 in the San Joaquin River Basin was less than 21 percent of application in 1993 and 1994. A total of 13 sites were sampled weekly during nonstorm periods and more frequently during two storm periods. The sites included five major river and eight minor tributary sites. The highest concentrations of diazinon and chlorpyrifos occurred during the storm periods. Four samples from major river sites (Tuolumne River and two San Joaquin River sites) had diazinon concentrations greater than 0.08 microgram per liter, the concentration being considered by the state of California as its criterion maximum concentration for the protection of aquatic habitat. One sample from a major river site (San Joaquin River) exceeded the equivalent State guideline of 0.02 microgram per liter for chlorpyrifos. At the eight minor tributary sites, 24 samples exceeded the diazinon guideline and four samples exceeded the chlorpyrifos guideline. The total diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2000 was 19.6 pounds active ingredient; of this, 8.17 pounds active ingredient was transported during two storms. In 1994, 27.4 pounds active ingredient was transported during two storms. The total chlorpyrifos load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis during January and February 2000 was 5.68 pounds active ingredient; of this, 2.17 pounds active ingredient was transported during the two storms. During the frequently sampled February 2000 storm, the main sources of diazinon in the San Joaquin River Basin were the San Joaquin River near Stevinson Basin (25 percent), Tuolumne River Basin (14 percent), and the Stanislaus River Basin (10 percent). The main sources of chlorpyrifos in the San Joaquin River Basin were the San Joaquin River near Stevinson Basin (17 percent), Tuolumne River Basin (13 percent), and the Merced River Basin (11 percent). The total January and February diazinon load in the San Joaquin River near Vernalis was 0.17 percent of dormant application; total January and February chlorpyrifos load was 0.16 percent of dormant application.

Effects of the H-3 Highway Stormwater Runoff on the Water Quality of Halawa Stream, Oahu, Hawaii, November 1998 to August 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolff, Reuben H.; Wong, Michael F.

2008-01-01

Since November 1998, water-quality data have been collected from the H-3 Highway Storm Drain C, which collects runoff from a 4-mi-long viaduct, and from Halawa Stream on Oahu, Hawaii. From January 2001 to August 2004, data were collected from the storm drain and four stream sites in the Halawa Stream drainage basin as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Storm Water Monitoring Program. Data from the stormwater monitoring program have been published in annual reports. This report uses these water-quality data to explore how the highway storm-drain runoff affects Halawa Stream and the factors that might be controlling the water quality in the drainage basin. In general, concentrations of nutrients, total dissolved solids, and total suspended solids were lower in highway runoff from Storm Drain C than at stream sites upstream and downstream of Storm Drain C. The opposite trend was observed for most trace metals, which generally occurred in higher concentrations in the highway runoff from Storm Drain C than in the samples collected from Halawa Stream. The absolute contribution from Storm Drain C highway runoff, in terms of total storm loads, was much smaller than at stations upstream and downstream, whereas the constituent yields (the relative contribution per unit drainage basin area) at Storm Drain C were comparable to or higher than storm yields at stations upstream and downstream. Most constituent concentrations and loads in stormwater runoff increased in a downstream direction. The timing of the storm sampling is an important factor controlling constituent concentrations observed in stormwater runoff samples. Automated point samplers were used to collect grab samples during the period of increasing discharge of the storm throughout the stormflow peak and during the period of decreasing discharge of the storm, whereas manually collected grab samples were generally collected during the later stages near the end of the storm. Grab samples were analyzed to determine concentrations and loads at a particular point in time. Flow-weighted time composite samples from the automated point samplers were analyzed to determine mean constituent concentrations or loads during a storm. Chemical analysis of individual grab samples from the automated point sampler at Storm Drain C demonstrated the ?first flush? phenomenon?higher constituent concentrations at the beginning of runoff events?for the trace metals cadmium, lead, zinc, and copper, whose concentrations were initially high during the period of increasing discharge and gradually decreased over the duration of the storm. Water-quality data from Storm Drain C and four stream sites were compared to the State of Hawaii Department of Health (HDOH) water-quality standards to determine the effects of highway storm runoff on the water quality of Halawa Stream. The geometric-mean standards and the 10- and 2-percent-of-the-time concentration standards for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, total suspended solids, and turbidity were exceeded in many of the comparisons. However, these standards were not designed for stormwater sampling, in which constituent concentrations would be expected to increase for short periods of time. With the aim of enhancing the usefulness of the water-quality data, several modifications to the stormwater monitoring program are suggested. These suggestions include (1) the periodic analyzing of discrete samples from the automated point samplers over the course of a storm to get a clearer profile of the storm, from first flush to the end of the receding discharge; (2) adding an analysis of the dissolved fractions of metals to the sampling plan; (3) installation of an automatic sampler at Bridge 8 to enable sampling earlier in the storms; (4) a one-time sampling and analysis of soils upstream of Bridge 8 for base-line contaminant concentrations; (5) collection of samples from Halawa Stream during low-flow conditions

A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2008-07-01

The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.

Characteristic Paths of Extratropical Cyclones that Cause High Wind Events in the Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, J. F.; Rieder, H. E.; Lee, D.; Kushnir, Y.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the association between wintertime high wind events (HWEs) in the northeast United States US and extratropical cyclones. Sustained wind maxima in the Daily Summary Data from the National Climatic Data Center's Integrated Surface Database are analyzed for 1979-2012. For each station, a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is fit to the upper tail of the daily maximum wind speed data, and probabilistic return levels at intervals of 1, 3 and 5-years are derived from the GPD fit. At each interval, wind events meeting the return level criteria are termed HWEs. The HWEs occurring on the same day are grouped into multi-station events allowing the association with extratropical cyclones, which are tracked in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast ERA-Interim reanalysis. Using hierarchical clustering analysis, this study finds that the HWEs are most often associated with cyclones travelling from southwest to northeast, usually originating west of the Appalachian Mountains. The results show that a storm approaching from the southwest is four times more likely to cause strong surface winds than a Nor'easter. A series of sensitivity analyses confirms the robustness of this result. Next, the relationship between the strength of the wind events and the corresponding storm minimum sea level pressure is analyzed. No robust relationship between these quantities is found for strong wind events. Nevertheless, subsequent analysis shows that a relationship between deeper storms and stronger winds emerges if the analysis is extended to the entire set of wintertime storms.

Seismic Hazard and Ground Motion Characterization at the Itoiz Dam (Northern Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivas-Medina, A.; Santoyo, M. A.; Luzón, F.; Benito, B.; Gaspar-Escribano, J. M.; García-Jerez, A.

2012-08-01

This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty ( T = 0.1 s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity ( T = 0.22 s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975 years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975 years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA ( T) of T = 0.1 and 0.22 s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975 years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.

An assessment study of the wavelet-based index of magnetic storm activity (WISA) and its comparison to the Dst index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Zhu, L.; Sojka, J. J.; Kokoszka, P.; Jach, A.

2006-12-01

A wavelet-based index of storm activities (WISA) has been recently developed (Jach et al., 2006) to complement the traditional Dst index. The new index can be computed automatically using the wavelet-based statistical procedure without human intervention on the selection of quiet days and the removal of secular variations. In addition, the WISA is flexible on data stretch and has a higher temporal resolution (one minute), which can provide a better description of the dynamical variations of magnetic storms. In this work, we perform a systematic assessment study on the WISA index. First, we statistically compare the WISA to the Dst for various quiet and disturbing periods and analyze the differences of their spectrum features. Then we quantitatively assess the flexibility of the WISA on data stretch and study the effects of varying number of stations on the index. In addition, how well the WISA can handle the missing data is also quantitatively assessed. The assessment results show that the hourly-averaged WISA index can describe storm activities equally well as the Dst index, but its full automation, high flexibility on data stretch, easiness of using the data from varying number of stations, high temporal resolution, and high tolerance on missing data from individual station can be very valuable and essential for real-time monitoring of the dynamical variations of magnetic storm activities and space weather applications, thus significantly complementing the existing Dst index. Jach, A., P. Kokoszka, J. Sojka, and L. Zhu, Wavelet-based index of magnetic storm activity, J. Geophys. Res., in press, 2006.

An assessment study of the wavelet-based index of magnetic storm activity (WISA) and its comparison to the Dst index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhonghua; Zhu, Lie; Sojka, Jan; Kokoszka, Piotr; Jach, Agnieszka

2008-08-01

A wavelet-based index of storm activity (WISA) has been recently developed [Jach, A., Kokoszka, P., Sojka, L., Zhu, L., 2006. Wavelet-based index of magnetic storm activity. Journal of Geophysical Research 111, A09215, doi:10.1029/2006JA011635] to complement the traditional Dst index. The new index can be computed automatically by using the wavelet-based statistical procedure without human intervention on the selection of quiet days and the removal of secular variations. In addition, the WISA is flexible on data stretch and has a higher temporal resolution (1 min), which can provide a better description of the dynamical variations of magnetic storms. In this work, we perform a systematic assessment study on the WISA index. First, we statistically compare the WISA to the Dst for various quiet and disturbed periods and analyze the differences of their spectral features. Then we quantitatively assess the flexibility of the WISA on data stretch and study the effects of varying number of stations on the index. In addition, the ability of the WISA for handling the missing data is also quantitatively assessed. The assessment results show that the hourly averaged WISA index can describe storm activities equally well as the Dst index, but its full automation, high flexibility on data stretch, easiness of using the data from varying number of stations, high temporal resolution, and high tolerance to missing data from individual station can be very valuable and essential for real-time monitoring of the dynamical variations of magnetic storm activities and space weather applications, thus significantly complementing the existing Dst index.

Identifying long term empirical relationships between storm characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tashie, Arik; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Pavelsky, Tamlin

2016-01-01

Shallow aquifers are an important source of water resources and provide base flow to streams; yet actual rates of groundwater recharge are difficult to estimate. While climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, the resulting impact on groundwater recharge remains poorly understood. We quantify empirical relations between precipitation characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge for a wide variety of geographic and land use types across North Carolina. We extract storm duration, magnitude, average rate, and hourly weighted intensity from long-term precipitation records over periods of 12–35 years at 10 locations. Using time series of water table fluctuations from nearby monitoring wells, we estimate relative recharge to precipitation ratios (RPR) to identify statistical trends. Increased RPR correlates with increased storm duration, whereas RPR decreases with increasing magnitude, average rate, and intensity of precipitation. Agricultural and urban areas exhibit the greatest decrease in RPR due to increasing storm magnitude, average rate, and intensity, while naturally vegetated areas exhibit a larger increase in RPR with increased storm duration. Though RPR is generally higher during the winter than the summer, this seasonal effect is magnified in the Appalachian and Piedmont regions. These statistical trends provide valuable insights into the likely consequences of climate and land use change for water resources in subtropical climates. If, as predicted, growing seasons lengthen and the intensity of storms increases with a warming climate, decreased recharge in Appalachia, the Piedmont, and rapidly growing urban areas of the American Southeast could further limit groundwater availability.

Irma Tracked from Space on This Week @NASA – September 8, 2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-08

During the week of Sept. 5, spacecraft captured imagery of hurricane Irma as the storm reached category 5 status in the Atlantic Ocean. Irma was seen from the International Space Station, Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM, and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite. Imagery from space is used to help forecasters and officials track and characterize storms and other natural events. Also, Johnson Space Center Recovering from Harvey, Whitson and Fischer Return to Earth, 40 Years of Voyager, and Bridenstine Nominated for Administrator!

Electric Field Measurements During the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bateman, Monte G.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Mach, Douglas M.

2010-01-01

During the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field program, a system of 6 electric field mills was flown on one of NASA's Global Hawk aircraft. We placed several mills on the aircraft to enable us to measure the vector electric field. We created a distributed, ethernet-connected system so that each sensor has its own embedded Linux system, complete with web server. This makes our current generation system fully "sensor web enabled." The Global Hawk has several unique qualities, but relevant to quality storm electric field measurements are high altitude (20 km) and long duration (20-30 hours) flights. There are several aircraft participating in the GRIP program, and coordinated measurements are happening. Lightning and electric field measurements will be used to study the relationships between lightning and other storm characteristics. It has been long understood that lightning can be used as a marker for strong convective activity. Past research and field programs suggest that lightning flash rate may serve as an indicator and precursor for rapid intensification change in tropical cyclones and hurricanes. We have the opportunity to sample hurricanes for many hours at a time and observe intensification (or de-intensification) periods. The electrical properties of hurricanes during such periods are not well known. American

Performance evaluation of a smart buffer control at a wastewater treatment plant.

PubMed

van Daal-Rombouts, P; Benedetti, L; de Jonge, J; Weijers, S; Langeveld, J

2017-11-15

Real time control (RTC) is increasingly seen as a viable method to optimise the functioning of wastewater systems. Model exercises and case studies reported in literature claim a positive impact of RTC based on results without uncertainty analysis and flawed evaluation periods. This paper describes two integrated RTC strategies at the wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) Eindhoven, the Netherlands, that aim to improve the use of the available tanks at the WWTP and storage in the contributing catchments to reduce the impact on the receiving water. For the first time it is demonstrated that a significant improvement can be achieved through the application of RTC in practice. The Storm Tank Control is evaluated based on measurements and reduces the number of storm water settling tank discharges by 44% and the discharged volume by an estimated 33%, decreasing dissolved oxygen depletion in the river. The Primary Clarifier Control is evaluated based on model simulations. The maximum event NH4 concentration in the effluent reduced on average 19% for large events, while the load reduced 20%. For all 31 events the reductions are 11 and 4% respectively. Reductions are significant taking uncertainties into account, while using representative evaluation periods. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical and future drought in Bangladesh using copula-based bivariate regional frequency analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mortuza, Md Rubayet; Moges, Edom; Demissie, Yonas; Li, Hong-Yi

2018-02-01

The study aims at regional and probabilistic evaluation of bivariate drought characteristics to assess both the past and future drought duration and severity in Bangladesh. The procedures involve applying (1) standardized precipitation index to identify drought duration and severity, (2) regional frequency analysis to determine the appropriate marginal distributions for both duration and severity, (3) copula model to estimate the joint probability distribution of drought duration and severity, and (4) precipitation projections from multiple climate models to assess future drought trends. Since drought duration and severity in Bangladesh are often strongly correlated and do not follow same marginal distributions, the joint and conditional return periods of droughts are characterized using the copula-based joint distribution. The country is divided into three homogeneous regions using Fuzzy clustering and multivariate discordancy and homogeneity measures. For given severity and duration values, the joint return periods for a drought to exceed both values are on average 45% larger, while to exceed either value are 40% less than the return periods from the univariate frequency analysis, which treats drought duration and severity independently. These suggest that compared to the bivariate drought frequency analysis, the standard univariate frequency analysis under/overestimate the frequency and severity of droughts depending on how their duration and severity are related. Overall, more frequent and severe droughts are observed in the west side of the country. Future drought trend based on four climate models and two scenarios showed the possibility of less frequent drought in the future (2020-2100) than in the past (1961-2010).

Transport of Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Source-specific Indicator Organisms, and Standard Water Quality Constituents During Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sturdevant-Rees, P. L.; Bourdeau, D.; Baker, R.; Long, S. C.; Barten, P. K.

2004-05-01

Microbial and water-quality measurements are collected during storm events under a variety of meteorological and land-use conditions in order to 1) identify risk of Cryptosporidium oocysts, Giardia cysts and other constituents, including microbial indicator organisms, entering surface waters from various land uses during periods of surface runoff; 2) optimize storm sampling procedures for these parameters; and 3) optimize strategies for accurate determination of constituent loads. The investigation is focused on four isolated land uses: forested with free ranging wildlife, beaver influenced forested with free ranging wildlife, residential/commercial, and dairy farm grazing/pastureland using an upstream and downstream sampling strategy. Traditional water-quality analyses include pH, temperature, turbidity, conductivity, total suspended solids, total phosphorus, total Kjeldahl-nitrogen, and ammonia nitrogen, Giardia cysts and Cryptosporidium oocysts. Total coliforms and fecal coliforms are measured as industry standard microbial analyses. Sorbitol-fermenting Bifidobacteria, Rhodococcus coprophilus, Clostridium perfringens spores, and Somatic and F-specific coliphages are measured at select sites as potential alternative source-specific indicator organisms. Upon completion of the project, the final database will consist of wet weather transport data for a set of parameters during twenty-four distinct storm-events in addition to monthly baseline data. A subset of the results to date will be presented, with focus placed on demonstrating the impact of beaver on constituent loadings over a variety of hydrologic and meteorological conditions.

Plasmapause Dynamics Observed During the 17 March and 28 June 2013 Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bishop, R. L.; Coster, A. J.; Turner, D. L.; Nikoukar, R.; Lemon, C.; Roeder, J. L.; Shumko, M.; Bhatt, R.; Payne, C.; Bust, G. S.

2017-12-01

Earth's plasmasphere is a region of cold (T ≤ 1 eV), dense (n 101 to 104 cm-3) plasma located in the inner magnetosphere and coincident with a portion of the ionosphere that co-rotates with the planet in the geomagnetic field. Plasmaspheric plasma originates in the ionosphere and fills the magnetic flux tubes on which the corotation electric field dominates over the convection electric field. The corotation electric field results from Earth's spinning magnetic field while the convection electric field results from the solar wind driving of global plasma convection within the magnetosphere. The outer boundary of the plasmasphere is the plasmapause, and it corresponds to the transition region between corotation-driven vs. convection-driven plasmas. When the convection electric field is enhanced during active solar wind periods, such as magnetic storms, the plasmasphere can rapidly erode to L 2.5 or less. During subsequent quiet periods of low solar wind speed and weak interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), ionospheric outflow from lower altitudes refills the plasmasphere over the course of several days or more, with the plasmapause expanding to higher L-shells. The combination of convection, corotation, and ionospheric plasma outflow during and after a storm leads to characteristic features such as plasmaspheric shoulders, notches, and plumes. In this presentation, we focus on the dynamics of the plasmapause during two storms in 2013: March 17 and June 28. The minimum Dst for the two storms were -139 and -98 nT, respectively. We examine plasmapause dynamics utilizing data from an extensive global network of ground-based scientific GPS receivers ( 4000) and line-of-sight observations from the GPS receivers on the COSMIC and C/NOFS satellites, along with data from THEMIS and van Allen Probes, and Millstone Hill Incoherent Scatter Radar. Using the various datasets, we will compare the pre-storm and storm-time plasmasphere. We will also examine the location, evolution, and erosion time scales of the plasmapause during the active portion of the storm using a combination of the observational data, the assimilative PDA model, and the RCM-E model.

A Strategy for a Parametric Flood Insurance Using Proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraguchi, M.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Traditionally, the design of flood control infrastructure and flood plain zoning require the estimation of return periods, which have been calculated by river hydraulic models with rainfall-runoff models. However, this multi-step modeling process leads to significant uncertainty to assess inundation. In addition, land use change and changing climate alter the potential losses, as well as make the modeling results obsolete. For these reasons, there is a strong need to create parametric indexes for the financial risk transfer for large flood events, to enable rapid response and recovery. Hence, this study examines the possibility of developing a parametric flood index at the national or regional level in Asia, which can be quickly mobilized after catastrophic floods. Specifically, we compare a single trigger based on rainfall index with multiple triggers using rainfall and streamflow indices by conducting case studies in Bangladesh and Thailand. The proposed methodology is 1) selecting suitable indices of rainfall and streamflow (if available), 2) identifying trigger levels for specified return periods for losses using stepwise and logistic regressions, 3) measuring the performance of indices, and 4) deriving return periods of selected windows and trigger levels. Based on the methodology, actual trigger levels were identified for Bangladesh and Thailand. Models based on multiple triggers reduced basis risks, an inherent problem in an index insurance. The proposed parametric flood index can be applied to countries with similar geographic and meteorological characteristics, and serve as a promising method for ex-ante risk financing for developing countries. This work is intended to be a preliminary work supporting future work on pricing risk transfer mechanisms in ex-ante risk finance.

Ability to home in small site-attached coral reef fishes.

PubMed

Booth, D J

2016-08-01

The ability of two common, site-attached coral-reef fishes to return to their home corals after displacement was investigated in a series of field experiments at One Tree Island, southern Great Barrier Reef. The humbug Dascyllus aruanus was displaced up to 250 m, with 42% of individuals returning home, irrespective of body size, displacement, direction (up or across currents) and route complexity, while for the lemon damselfish Pomacentrus moluccensis 35% of individuals returned overall, with 33% from the greatest displacement, 100 m along a reef edge. Given that the home range of both species is <1 m(2) , over their 10+ year life span, the mechanisms and motivations for such homing ability are unclear but it may allow resilience if fishes are displaced by storm events, allowing rapid return to home corals. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Electric Field and Lightning Observations in the Core of Category 5 Hurricane Emily

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, Richard; Mach, Doug M.; Bateman, Monte G.; Bailey, Jeff C.

2007-01-01

Significant electric fields and lightning activity associated with Hurricane Emily were observed from a NASA high-altitude ER-2 aircraft on July 17, 2005 while this storm developed as a compact but intense category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean south of Cuba. The electrical measurements were acquired as part of the NASA sponsored Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment. In addition to the electrical measurements, the aircraft's remote sensing instrument complement also included active radars, passive microwave, visible and infrared radiometers, and a temperature sounder providing details on the dynamical, microphysical, and environmental structure, characteristics and development of this intense storm. Cloud-to-ground lightning location data from Vaisala's long range lightning detection network were also acquired and displayed in real-time along with electric fields measured at the aircraft. These data and associated display also supported aircraft guidance and vectoring during the mission. During the observing period, flash rates in excess of 3 to 5 flashes per minute, as well as large electric field and field change values were observed as the storm appeared to undergo periods of intensification, especially in the northwest quadrant in the core eyewall regions. This is in contrast to most hurricanes that tend to be characterized by weak electrification and little or no lightning activity except in the outer rain bands. It should be noted that this storm also had significant lightning associated with its rain bands.

High-speed plasma imaging: A lightning bolt

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wurden, G.A.; Whiteson, D.O.

Using a gated intensified digital Kodak Ektapro camera system, the authors captured a lightning bolt at 1,000 frames per second, with 100-{micro}s exposure time on each consecutive frame. As a thunder storm approaches while darkness descended (7:50 pm) on July 21, 1994, they photographed lightning bolts with an f22 105-mm lens and 100% gain on the intensified camera. This 15-frame sequence shows a cloud to ground stroke at a distance of about 1.5 km, which has a series of stepped leaders propagating downwards, following by the upward-propagating main return stroke.

KSC-06pd2006

NASA Image and Video Library

2006-08-29

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. - Space Shuttle Atlantis is hard down on the launch pad after rolling back to Launch Pad 39B. The Atlantic Ocean and lagoon water in the background reflect the glowing light of a setting sun. The shuttle had been moved off the launch pad due to concerns about the impact of Tropical Storm Ernesto, expected within 24 hours. The forecast of lesser winds expected from Ernesto and its projected direction convinced Launch Integration Manager LeRoy Cain and Shuttle Launch Director Mike Leinbach to return the shuttle to the launch pad. Photo credit: NASA/Kim Shiflett

A comparative analysis of simulated and observed landslide locations triggered by Hurricane Camille in Nelson County, Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrissey, M.M.; Wieczorek, G.F.; Morgan, B.A.

2008-01-01

In 1969, Nelson County, Virginia received up to 71 cm of rain within 12 h starting at 7 p.m. on August 19. The total rainfall from the storm exceeded the 1000-year return period in the region. Several thousands of landslides were induced by rainfall associated with Hurricane Camille causing fatalities and destroying infrastructure. We apply a distributed transient response model for regional slope stability analysis to shallow landslides. Initiation points of over 3000 debris flows and effects of flooding from this storm are applied to the model. Geotechnical data used in the calculations are published data from samples of colluvium. Results from these calculations are compared with field observations such as landslide trigger location and timing of debris flows to assess how well the model predicts the spatial and temporal distribution. of landslide initiation locations. The model predicts many of the initiation locations in areas where debris flows are observed. Copyright ?? 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[Return to work management of people with temporary disability].

PubMed

Okreglicka, Małgorzata

2011-01-01

There is a large and growing body of scientific evidence that return to work usually provides significant overall health benefit, and staying off work needlessly results in poorer overall health outcomes. Thus, employers, employees (patients), and insurers all benefit from individuals returning to work in usual time periods. Disability duration guidelines can be an important tool helping the injured workers to get back on the job. The return to work process needs to be accepted by all parties (physicians, employees, employers, insurers) as defensible, fair and evidence-based. "The medical disability advisor--Workplace guidelines for disability duration" by Presley Reed is the backbone of communication, understanding and measurement in case management programs, having great impact on many parties and steps during a case life cycle.

Fetch-Trapping in Hurricane Isabel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearse, A. J.; Hanson, J. L.

2005-12-01

Hurricane Isabel made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on September 18, 2003, and caused extensive monetary and coastal damage. Storm surge and battering waves were a primary cause of damage, as in most hurricanes. Data collected at the US Army Corps of Engineers Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC, the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC), and the Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) suggest that the waves generated by Hurricane Isabel were larger and had longer periods than would be suggested by a traditional semi-empirical wave growth model with similar fetch and wind speed values. It is likely that this enhanced growth was due to the trapping of storm waves within the moving fetch of the hurricane. The purpose of this study was to empirically confirm the enhancement and to identify the degree of fetch-trapping that occurred. Directional wave spectra from 577 individual wave records were collected from buoys in three locations: CDIP station 078 in King's Bay, GA, the FRF Waverider in NC, and NDBC Station 44025 off Long Island, NY. A wave partitioning approach was used to isolate the individual swell components from the evolving wave field at each station. A backward raytrace along great-circle routes was employed to identify the intersection of each swell system with the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) Isabel track. This allowed matching each observed swell component with a generation time, storm translation speed, and peak wind speed. Wave period, rather than amplitude, was used in this study because amplitude is significantly affected by the bottom topography whereas period is conserved. Using the identified wind speeds and an average fetch of 200 km (approximated using NOAA wind field charts), the actual waves showed wave period enhancements up to 60% over predictions using the standard wave growth model. A variety of resonance criteria are applied to evaluate fetch trapping in Hurricane Isabel. The most enhanced wave periods were found to occur when the wave group speeds most closely matched the storm translation speeds, strongly suggesting that fetch trapping was an important mechanism for wave growth in Isabel.

Millimeter wave radiative transfer studies for precipitation measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vivekanandan, J.; Evans, Frank

1989-01-01

Scattering calculations using the discrete dipole approximation and vector radiative transfer calculations were performed to model multiparameter radar return and passive microwave emission for a simple model of a winter storm. The issue of dendrite riming was addressed by computing scattering properties of thin ice disks with varying bulk density. It was shown that C-band multiparameter radar contains information about particle density and the number concentration of the ice particles. The radiative transfer modeling indicated that polarized multifrequency passive microwave emission may be used to infer some properties of ice hydrometers. Detailed radar modeling and vector radiative transfer modeling is in progress to enhance the understanding of simultaneous radar and radiometer measurements, as in the case of the proposed TRMM field program. A one-dimensional cloud model will be used to simulate the storm structure in detail and study the microphysics, such as size and density. Multifrequency polarized radiometer measurements from the SSMI satellite instrument will be analyzed in relation to dual-frequency and dual-polarization radar measurements.

Effects of urban development on direct runoff to East Meadow Brook, Nassau County, Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Seaburn, G.E.

1969-01-01

The study described in this report is concerned with the effects of intensive urban development on direct runoff to East Meadow Brook, a southward-flowing stream in central Nassau County, N.Y., during the period 1937-66. The specific objectives of the study were (a) to relate indices of urban development to increases in the volume of annual direct runoff to the stream; (b) to compare hydrograph features at different periods during the transition of the drainage basin from rural to urban conditions; and (c) to compare the rainfall-runoff relations for periods before and after urban development.Periods of housing and street construction in the drainage basin correspond to three distinct periods of increased direct runoff after the base period 1937-43-namely, 1944-51, 1952-59, and 1960-62. During each period, the average annual direct runoff increased because of an increase in the area served by storm sewers that discharged into East Meadow Brook. The amount of land served by sewers increased from about 570 acres in 1943 to about 3,600 acres in 1962, or about 530 percent. During this same period, the average annual direct runoff increased from about 920 acre-feet per year to about 3,400 acre-feet per year, or about 270 percent.The shape of direct-runoff unit hydrographs of East Meadow Brook also changed during the period of study. The average peak discharge of a 1-hour-duration unit hydrograph increased from 313 cubic feet per second, for storms in 1937-43, to 776 cubic feet per second, for storms in 1960-62, or about 2.5 times. In addition, the widths of the unit hydrographs for 1960-62 at values of 50 and 75 percent of the peak discharge were 38 and 28 percent, respectively, the comparable widths of the unit hydrographs for 1937-43.An analysis of the rainfall-runoff relations for both preurban and urban conditions indicates that the direct runoff for both periods increased with the magnitude of the storm. However, the direct runoff during a period of urbanized conditions (1964- 66) was from 1.1 to 4.6 times greater than the corresponding runoff during the preurban period 1937-43, depending on the size of the individual storm.The volume of direct runoff from the parts of the subarea equipped with storm sewers that discharged into East Meadow Brook is estimated to have been roughly 3,000 acre-feet per year in 1960-62, or about 20 percent of the precipitation on those parts of the area.The increase in direct runoff probably represents a loss of ground-water recharge. However, because data changes in evapo-transpiration are insufficient and because the effects of recharge basins are unknown, adequate quantitative estimates of groundwater recharge can not be made.On the basis of the present zoning regulations and on assumption that an additional 320 acres in the Hempstead subarea will be serviced by storm sewers that discharge into East Meadow Brook, direct runoff from the subarea is expected to increase in the future to an estimated 4,000-4,500 acre-feet per year.

The UAV: A unique platform for electrodynamic studies of upward lightning in the middle atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Desch, Michael D.; Farrell, William M.

1997-01-01

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), a platform for investigations in an environment hostile to manned spacecraft, is discussed. A program which includes the use of UAVs coupled with ground-based measurements to conduct scientific studies on the electrical state of the atmosphere during electrically active periods is proposed. The radiating power from alternate current and transient components of the storm electrification was investigated.

Climatology of North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

positions before they were used in the analyses and calculations. The interpolation was accomplished by the Akima method.* ( It should be noted that the...constant throughout its life with a heading between 2500 and 3600. A recurver is defined as a tropical cyclone that turned from its initial westward or... belongs to two periods, and in some cases three. The starting date was chosen for classification purposes because, in operational fact, a storm’s

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by the NWS at the Raleigh-Durham (RAH) forecast office for 10 winter storms. Analysis of these ASCII forecasts will be presented.

Changes of circulatory and nervous diseases mortality patterns during periods of exceptional solar events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podolska, Katerina

2017-04-01

The paper contains a statistical analysis of exceptional solar events and daily numbers of deaths from diseases from ICD-10 group VI. Diseases of the nervous system, group IX. Diseases of the circulatory system, and overall daily numbers of deaths in the Czech Republic. It is demonstrated that neurological diseases exhibit greater instability during the period of rising and falling solar activity. Specifically, we study the daily number of deaths separately for both sexes at the age groups under 39 and 40+ during the Solar Cycles No. 23 and No. 24. We focus mainly on exceptional solar events such as a "Bastille Day event" on July 14, 2000 (class X5), "Halloween solar storm" on October 28, 2003 (class X17), and events on January 7, 1997, April 2, 2000 (class X20), or September 7, 2005 (class X15). Special attention is given to "St. Patrick's Day storm" on March 17, 2015, the strongest geomagnetic storm of the Solar Cycle No. 24 that occurred following a coronal mass ejection (CME). We investigate changes in daily numbers of deaths during 1 month before and 1 month after these exceptional solar events. We take specific storm dynamics of geophysical parameters into consideration, and we also apply the results of risky characteristics of expositions by ionospheric and geomagnetic parameters. It is verified that, for diseases of the nervous system, women are generally more sensitive than men. On the contrary, this differences between men and women are not found for diseases of the circulatory system. Our findings suggest that the impact of hazardous space weather conditions on human health depends on the specific course and strength of individual solar storm.

A stochastical event-based continuous time step rainfall generator based on Poisson rectangular pulse and microcanonical random cascade models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohle, Ina; Niebisch, Michael; Zha, Tingting; Schümberg, Sabine; Müller, Hannes; Maurer, Thomas; Hinz, Christoph

2017-04-01

Rainfall variability within a storm is of major importance for fast hydrological processes, e.g. surface runoff, erosion and solute dissipation from surface soils. To investigate and simulate the impacts of within-storm variabilities on these processes, long time series of rainfall with high resolution are required. Yet, observed precipitation records of hourly or higher resolution are in most cases available only for a small number of stations and only for a few years. To obtain long time series of alternating rainfall events and interstorm periods while conserving the statistics of observed rainfall events, the Poisson model can be used. Multiplicative microcanonical random cascades have been widely applied to disaggregate rainfall time series from coarse to fine temporal resolution. We present a new coupling approach of the Poisson rectangular pulse model and the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model that preserves the characteristics of rainfall events as well as inter-storm periods. In the first step, a Poisson rectangular pulse model is applied to generate discrete rainfall events (duration and mean intensity) and inter-storm periods (duration). The rainfall events are subsequently disaggregated to high-resolution time series (user-specified, e.g. 10 min resolution) by a multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model. One of the challenges of coupling these models is to parameterize the cascade model for the event durations generated by the Poisson model. In fact, the cascade model is best suited to downscale rainfall data with constant time step such as daily precipitation data. Without starting from a fixed time step duration (e.g. daily), the disaggregation of events requires some modifications of the multiplicative microcanonical random cascade model proposed by Olsson (1998): Firstly, the parameterization of the cascade model for events of different durations requires continuous functions for the probabilities of the multiplicative weights, which we implemented through sigmoid functions. Secondly, the branching of the first and last box is constrained to preserve the rainfall event durations generated by the Poisson rectangular pulse model. The event-based continuous time step rainfall generator has been developed and tested using 10 min and hourly rainfall data of four stations in North-Eastern Germany. The model performs well in comparison to observed rainfall in terms of event durations and mean event intensities as well as wet spell and dry spell durations. It is currently being tested using data from other stations across Germany and in different climate zones. Furthermore, the rainfall event generator is being applied in modelling approaches aimed at understanding the impact of rainfall variability on hydrological processes. Reference Olsson, J.: Evaluation of a scaling cascade model for temporal rainfall disaggregation, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2, 19.30

Exploring Statistical Characterizations of Morphologic Change and Variability: Fire Island, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, E. E.; Hapke, C. J.

2012-12-01

A comprehensive understanding of coastal barrier behavior requires high-resolution observations that capture a wide range of morphological changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Fire Island National Seashore, located along the coast of Long Island, New York, is a well studied barrier island coast where understanding how morphological changes contribute to barrier island vulnerability have important implications for coastal land management. Previous work has shown that morphologic differences in eastern and western reaches are attributable to the underlying geology and variations sediment transport in the system. In this study, we further explore western and eastern differences and variability with lidar-derived topographic surfaces to provide a unique and comprehensive investigation of dune-beach change at Fire Island, New York. Continuous topographic surfaces generated from 12 lidar surveys collected between 1998 and 2011 are used to examine the three-dimensional variability over a range of time periods over the 50 km long island. Because surveys were collected over a range of seasons and in response to a number of storm events, we explore morphologic configurations reflecting the seasonality, post-storm configuration, and replenishment response to the system through the generation of a representative or average surface. These averaged surfaces provide the context for what would be an expected or typical coastal configuration under certain conditions, and through comparison with an individual event, can be used to derive an event-specific spatial-change signature. To investigate anthropogenic influences, differences in morphology between a survey collected after a substantial beach replenishment project and a typical fair-weather configuration averaged from six surveys are determined. Storm response variations are also explored by assessing differences between Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Nor'Ida (2009), and a typical post-storm configuration averaged from five post-storm surveys. In addition to averaged surfaces, surveys are combined to generate a new raster surface reflecting cell by cell standard deviations over a defined period. Standard deviation surfaces are generated to highlight 1) where areas of highest and lowest morphologic variation are located over the entire period, and 2) whether spatial similarities exist in variability between storm and non-storm morphologies. Results show there are distinct and variable responses in eastern and western reaches attributable to wave climate, profile gradient, and offshore bathymetry, as well as to a general along-coast increase in sediment availability.

Examining the effects of hurricanes Matthew and Irma on water quality in the intracoastal waterway, St. Augustine, FL.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, N. D.; Osborne, T.; Dye, T.; Julian, P.

2017-12-01

The last several years have been marked by a high incidence of Atlantic tropical cyclones making landfall as powerful hurricanes or tropical storms. For example, in 2016 Hurricane Matthew devastated parts of the Caribbean and the southeastern United States. In 2017, this region was further battered by hurricanes Irma and Maria. Here, we present water quality data collected in the intracoastal waterway near the Whitney Lab for Marine Bioscience during hurricanes Matthew and Irma, a region that experienced flooding during both storms. YSI Exo 2 sondes were deployed to measure pH, salinity, temperature, dissolved O2, fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), turbidity, and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) on a 15 minute interval. The Hurricane Matthew sonde deployment failed as soon as the storm hit, but revealed an interesting phenomenon leading up to the storm that was also observed during Irma. Salinity in the intracoastal waterway (off the Whitney Lab dock) typically varies from purely marine to 15-20 psu throughout the tidal cycle. However, several days before both storms approached the Florida coast (i.e. when they were near the Caribbean), the salinity signal became purely marine, overriding any tidal signal. Anecdotally, storm drains were already filled up to street level prior to the storm hitting, poising the region for immense flooding and storm surge. The opposite effect was observed after Irma moved past FL. Water became much fresher than normal for several days and it took almost a week to return to "normal" salinity tidal cycles. As both storms hit, turbidity increased by an order of magnitude for a several hour period. fDOM and O2 behaved similar to salinity during and after Irma, showing a mostly marine signal (e.g. higher O2, lower fDOM) in the lead up, and brief switch to more freshwater influence the week after the storm. Chl-a peaked several days after the storm, presumably due to mobilization of nutrient rich flood and waste waters and subsequent algae blooms. These results demonstrate the power of tropical cyclones in altering aquatic biogeochemical conditions days ahead of any noticeable impact and provide a preliminary look at how these events may influence factors such as carbon export and cycling.

Collapse and recovery of forage fish populations prior to commercial exploitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClatchie, S.; Hendy, I. L.; Thompson, A. R.; Watson, W.

2017-02-01

We use a new, well-calibrated 500 year paleorecord off southern California to determine collapse frequency, cross correlation, persistence, and return times of exploited forage fish populations. The paleorecord shows that "collapse" (defined as <10% of the mean peak biomass) is a normal state repeatedly experienced by northern anchovy, Pacific hake, and Pacific sardine which were collapsed 29-40% of the time, prior to commercial fishing exploitation. Mean (± SD) persistence of "fishable biomass" (defined as one third mean peak biomass from the paleorecord) was 19 ± 18, 15 ± 17, and 12 ± 7 years for anchovy, hake, and sardine. Mean return times to the same biomass was 8 years for anchovy but 22 years for sardine and hake. Further, we find that sardine and anchovy are positively correlated over 400 years, consistent with coherent declines of both species off California. Persistence and return times combined with positive sardine-anchovy correlation indicate that on average 1-2 decades of fishable biomass will be followed by 1-2 decades of low forage. Forage populations are resilient on the 500 year time scale, but their collapse and recovery cycle (based on the paleorecord) are suited to alternating periods of high fishing mortality and periods of little or no fishing.

Weather Typing-Based Flood Frequency Analysis Verified for Exceptional Historical Events of Past 500 Years Along the Meuse River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Niel, J.; Demarée, G.; Willems, P.

2017-10-01

Governments, policy makers, and water managers are pushed by recent socioeconomic developments such as population growth and increased urbanization inclusive of occupation of floodplains to impose very stringent regulations on the design of hydrological structures. These structures need to withstand storms with return periods typically ranging between 1,250 and 10,000 years. Such quantification involves extrapolations of systematically measured instrumental data, possibly complemented by quantitative and/or qualitative historical data and paleoflood data. The accuracy of the extrapolations is, however, highly unclear in practice. In order to evaluate extreme river peak flow extrapolation and accuracy, we studied historical and instrumental data of the past 500 years along the Meuse River. We moreover propose an alternative method for the estimation of the extreme value distribution of river peak flows, based on weather types derived by sea level pressure reconstructions. This approach results in a more accurate estimation of the tail of the distribution, where current methods are underestimating the design levels related to extreme high return periods. The design flood for a 1,250 year return period is estimated at 4,800 m3 s-1 for the proposed method, compared with 3,450 and 3,900 m3 s-1 for a traditional method and a previous study.

Understanding impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes on submerged bank reefs and coral communities in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lugo-Fernández, A.; Gravois, M.

2010-06-01

A 100-year climatology of tropical storms and hurricanes within a 200-km buffer was developed to study their impacts on coral reefs of the Flower Garden Banks (FGB) and neighboring banks of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The FGB are most commonly affected by tropical storms from May through November, peaking in August-September. Storms approach from all directions; however, the majority of them approach from the southeast and southwest, which suggests a correlation with storm origin in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. A storm activity cycle lasting 30-40 years was identified similar to that known in the Atlantic basin, and is similar to the recovery time for impacted reefs. On average there is 52% chance of a storm approaching within 200 km of the FGB every year, but only 17% chance of a direct hit every year. Storm-generated waves 5-25 m in height and periods of 11-15 s induce particle speeds of 1-4 m s -1 near these reefs. The wave-current flow is capable of transporting large (˜3 cm) sediment particles, uplifting the near-bottom nepheloid layer to the banks tops, but not enough to break coral skeletons. The resulting storm-driven turbulence induces cooling by heat extraction, mixing, and upwelling, which reduces coral bleaching potential and deepens the mixed layer by about 20 m. Tropical storms also aid larvae dispersal from and onto the FGB. Low storm activity in 1994-2004 contributed to an 18% coral cover increase, but Hurricane Rita in 2005 reduced it by 11% and brought coral cover to nearly pre-1994 levels. These results suggest that the FGB reefs and neighboring reef banks act as coral refugia because of their offshore location and deep position in the water column, which shields them from deleterious effects of all but the strongest hurricanes.

Development of Return Period Inundation Maps In A Changing Climate Using a Systems of Systems Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.; Passeri, D. L.; Irish, J. L.

2016-12-01

Worldwide, coastal land margins are experiencing increased vulnerability from natural and manmade disasters [Nicholls et al., 1999]. Specifically, coastal flooding is expected to increase due to the effects of climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular. A systems of systems (SoS) approach has been implemented to better understand the dynamic and nonlinear effects of SLR on tropical cyclone-induced coastal flooding along a low-gradient coastal landscape (northern Gulf of Mexico [NGOM]). The backbone of the SoS framework is a high-resolution, physics-based, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model [Bilskie et al., 2016a] that includes systems of SLR scenarios [Parris et al., 2012], shoreline morphology [Passeri et al., 2016; Plant et al., 2016], marsh evolution [Alizad et al., 2016], and population dynamics driven by carbon emission scenarios [Bilskie et al., 2016b]. Prior to considering future conditions, the storm surge model was comprehensively validated for present-day conditions [Bilskie et al., 2016a]. The present-day model was then modified to represent the potential future landscape based on four SLR scenarios prescribed by Parris et al. [2012] linked to carbon emissions scenarios for the year 2100. Numerical simulations forced by hundreds of synthetic tropical cyclones were performed and the results facilitate the development of return period inundation maps across the NGOM that reflect changes to the coastal landscape. The SoS approach allows new patterns and properties to emerge (i.e. nonlinear and dynamic effects of SLR) that would otherwise be unobserved using a static SLR model.

Reliability, return periods, and risk under nonstationarity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2015-08-01

Water resources design has widely used the average return period as a concept to inform management and communication of the risk of experiencing an exceedance event within a planning horizon. Even though nonstationarity is often apparent, in practice hydrologic design often mistakenly assumes that the probability of exceedance, p, is constant from year to year which leads to an average return period To equal to 1/p; this expression is far more complex under nonstationarity. Even for stationary processes, the common application of an average return period is problematic: it does not account for planning horizon, is an average value that may not be representative of the time to the next flood, and is generally not applied in other areas of water planning. We combine existing theoretical and empirical results from the literature to provide the first general, comprehensive description of the probabilistic behavior of the return period and reliability under nonstationarity. We show that under nonstationarity, the underlying distribution of the return period exhibits a more complex shape than the exponential distribution under stationary conditions. Using a nonstationary lognormal model, we document the increased complexity and challenges associated with planning for future flood events over a planning horizon. We compare application of the average return period with the more common concept of reliability and recommend replacing the average return period with reliability as a more practical way to communicate event likelihood in both stationary and nonstationary contexts.

Geologic effects of hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coch, Nicholas K.

1994-08-01

Hurricanes are intense low pressure systems of tropical origin. Hurricane damage results from storm surge, wind, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. Field observations and remote sensing of recent major hurricanes such as Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992) and Iniki (1992) are providing new insights into the mechanisms producing damage in these major storms. Velocities associated with hurricanes include the counterclockwise vortex winds flowing around the eye and the much slower regional winds that steer hurricane and move it forward. Vectorial addition of theseof these two winds on the higher effective wind speed than on the left side. Coast-parallel hurricane tracks keep the weaker left side of the storm against the coast, whereas coast-normal tracks produce a wide swath of destruction as the more powerful right side of the storm cuts a swath of destruction hundreds of kilometers inland. Storm surge is a function of the wind speed, central pressure, shelf slope, shoreline configuration, and anthropogenic alterations to the shoreline. Maximum surge heights are not under the eye of the hurricane, where the pressure is lowest, but on the right side of the eye at the radius of maximum winds, where the winds are strongest. Flood surge occurs as the hurricane approaches land and drives coastal waters, and superimposed waves, across the shore. Ebb surge occurs when impounded surface water flows seaward as the storm moves inland. Flood and ebb surge damage have been greatly increased in recent hurricanes as a result of anthropogenic changes along the shoreline. Hurricane wind damage occurs on three scales — megascale, mesoscale and microscale. Local wind damage is a function of wind speed, exposure and structural resistance to velocity pressure, wind drag and flying debris. Localized extreme damage is caused by gusts that can locally exceed sustained winds by a factor of two in areas where there is strong convective activity. Geologic changes occuring in hurricanes include beach erosion, dune erosion, inlet formation from flood and ebb surge, landscape changes through tree destruction by wind and nearshore channeling and sedimentation resulting from ebb surge. Multi-decadal wet and dry cycles in West Africa seem to be associated with increases (wet periods) and decreases (dry periods) in the frequency of Atlantic Coast landfalling hurricanes. Coastalzone population and development has increased markedly in a time of low hurricane frequency in the 24 year dry cycle from1970 to the present. However, no previous climatic cycle in this century has exceeded 26 years. We may entering a multi-decadal cycle of greater hurricane activity, placing these highly urbanized shorelines in considerable danger.

Statistical modeling of storm-level Kp occurrences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Remick, K.J.; Love, J.J.

2006-01-01

We consider the statistical modeling of the occurrence in time of large Kp magnetic storms as a Poisson process, testing whether or not relatively rare, large Kp events can be considered to arise from a stochastic, sequential, and memoryless process. For a Poisson process, the wait times between successive events occur statistically with an exponential density function. Fitting an exponential function to the durations between successive large Kp events forms the basis of our analysis. Defining these wait times by calculating the differences between times when Kp exceeds a certain value, such as Kp ??? 5, we find the wait-time distribution is not exponential. Because large storms often have several periods with large Kp values, their occurrence in time is not memoryless; short duration wait times are not independent of each other and are often clumped together in time. If we remove same-storm large Kp occurrences, the resulting wait times are very nearly exponentially distributed and the storm arrival process can be characterized as Poisson. Fittings are performed on wait time data for Kp ??? 5, 6, 7, and 8. The mean wait times between storms exceeding such Kp thresholds are 7.12, 16.55, 42.22, and 121.40 days respectively.

Short-Term TEC Perturbations Associated With Planetary Waves Occurrence in the Ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shagimuratov, I. I.; Karpov, I.; Krankowski, A.

2008-12-01

Analysis of TEC response to storm showed short-term perturbations which were observed after initial phase of geomagnetic storms. The perturbations demonstrated very well expressed latitudinal structure and were recognized on diurnal variations as surges of TEC enhancement of TEC. Ordinary such storm-time positive effect was associated with TAD. Duration of the perturbations was about 2-4 hours and their amplitude increased toward low latitudes. Such TEC perturbations have the longitudinal dependence. It is important that time location of surges have week dependence on latitude. The observed structure appeared to arrive from high latitudes, but at middle latitudes it was represented as a standing wave. It is assumed that such TEC perturbations can be produced due to superposition of the eastward and westward propagating planetary Poincare waves. The periods of these waves are usually several hours. Poincare waves can be excited at the atmosphere in storm time. At middle latitudes their superposition is as standing wave that forms observing TEC perturbations. In the report, the possibilities of application Poincare waves to the ionosphere dynamics studies are discussed and an explanation of the observed ionospheric effects is given.

Onset of frequent dust storms in northern China at ~AD 1100.

PubMed

He, Yuxin; Zhao, Cheng; Song, Mu; Liu, Weiguo; Chen, Fahu; Zhang, Dian; Liu, Zhonghui

2015-11-26

Dust storms in northern China strongly affect the living and health of people there and the dusts could travel a full circle of the globe in a short time. Historically, more frequent dust storms occurred during cool periods, particularly the Little Ice Age (LIA), generally attributed to the strengthened Siberian High. However, limited by chronological uncertainties in proxy records, this mechanism may not fully reveal the causes of dust storm frequency changes. Here we present a late Holocene dust record from the Qaidam Basin, where hydrological changes were previously reconstructed, and examine dust records from northern China, including the ones from historical documents. The records, being broadly consistent, indicate the onset of frequent dust storms at ~AD 1100. Further, peaked dust storm events occurred at episodes of high total solar irradiance or warm-dry conditions in source regions, superimposed on the high background of frequent dust storms within the cool LIA period. We thus suggest that besides strong wind activities, the centennial-scale dust storm events over the last 1000 years appear to be linked to the increased availability of dust source. With the anticipated global warming and deteriorating vegetation coverage, frequent occurrence of dust storms in northern China would be expected to persist.

Comparing the Hydrologic and Watershed Processes between a Full Scale Stochastic Model Versus a Scaled Physical Model of Bell Canyon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernandez, K. F.; Shah-Fairbank, S.

2016-12-01

The San Dimas Experimental Forest has been designated as a research area by the United States Forest Service for use as a hydrologic testing facility since 1933 to investigate watershed hydrology of the 27 square mile land. Incorporation of a computer model provides validity to the testing of the physical model. This study focuses on San Dimas Experimental Forest's Bell Canyon, one of the triad of watersheds contained within the Big Dalton watershed of the San Dimas Experimental Forest. A scaled physical model was constructed of Bell Canyon to highlight watershed characteristics and each's effect on runoff. The physical model offers a comprehensive visualization of a natural watershed and can vary the characteristics of rainfall intensity, slope, and roughness through interchangeable parts and adjustments to the system. The scaled physical model is validated and calibrated through a HEC-HMS model to assure similitude of the system. Preliminary results of the physical model suggest that a 50-year storm event can be represented by a peak discharge of 2.2 X 10-3 cfs. When comparing the results to HEC-HMS, this equates to a flow relationship of approximately 1:160,000, which can be used to model other return periods. The completion of the Bell Canyon physical model can be used for educational instruction in the classroom, outreach in the community, and further research using the model as an accurate representation of the watershed present in the San Dimas Experimental Forest.

Typhoon impacts on chemical weathering source provenance of a High Standing Island watershed, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Kevin J.; Carey, Anne E.; You, Chen-Feng

2017-10-01

Chemical weathering source provenance changes associated with Typhoon Mindulle (2004) were identified for the Choshui River Watershed in west-central Taiwan using radiogenic Sr isotope (87Sr/86Sr) and major ion chemistry analysis of water samples collected before, during, and following the storm event. Storm water sampling over 72 h was conducted in 3 h intervals, allowing for novel insight into weathering regime changes in response to intense rainfall events. Chemical weathering sources were determined to be bulk silicate and disseminated carbonate minerals at the surface and silicate contributions from deep thermal waters. Loss on ignition analysis of collected rock samples indicate disseminated carbonate can compose over 25% by weight of surface mineralogy, but typically makes up ∼2-3% of watershed rock. 87Sr/86Sr and major element molar ratios indicate that Typhoon Mindulle caused a weathering regime switch from normal flow incorporating a deep thermal signature to that of a system dominated by surface weathering. The data suggest release of silicate solute rich soil pore waters during storm events, creating a greater relative contribution of silicate weathering to the solute load during periods of increased precipitation and runoff. Partial depletion of this soil solute reservoir and possible erosion enhanced carbonate weathering lead to increased importance of carbonates to the weathering regime as the storm continues. Major ion data indicate that complex mica weathering (muscovite, biotite, illite, chlorite) may represent an important silicate weathering pathway in the watershed. Deep thermal waters represent an important contribution to river solutes during normal non-storm flow conditions. Sulfuric acid sourced from pyrite weathering is likely a major weathering agent in the Choshui River watershed.

Thresholds of flow-induced bed disturbances and their effects on stream metabolism in an agricultural river

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, Ben L.; Harvey, Judson W.; McPhillips, Lauren E.

2012-01-01

Storm-driven flow pulses in rivers destroy and restructure sediment habitats that affect stream metabolism. This study examined thresholds of bed disturbances that affected patch- and reach-scale sediment conditions and metabolism rates. A 4 year record of discharge and diel changes in dissolved oxygen concentrations (ΔDO) was analyzed for disturbances and recovery periods of the ΔDO signal. Disturbances to the ΔDO signal were associated with flow pulses, and the recovery times for the ΔDO signal were found to be in two categories: less than 5 days (30% of the disturbances) or greater than 15 days (70% of the disturbances). A field study was performed during the fall of 2007, which included a storm event that increased discharge from 3.1 to 6.9 m3/s over a 7 h period. During stable flow conditions before the storm, variability in patch-scale stream metabolism values were associated with sediment texture classes with values ranging from −16.4 to 2.3 g O22/d (negative sign indicates net respiration) that bounded the reach-averaged rate of −5.6 g O22/d. Hydraulic modeling of bed shear stresses demonstrated a storm-induced flow pulse mobilized approximately 25% of the bed and reach-scale metabolism rates shifted from −5 to −40 g O22/d. These results suggest that storm-induced bed disturbances led to threshold behavior with respect to stream metabolism. Small flow pulses resulted in partial-bed mobilization that disrupted stream metabolism by increased turbidity with short recovery times. Large flow pulses resulted in full-bed mobilization that disrupted stream metabolism by destroying periphyton habitats with long recovery times.

Coupling Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herdman, L.; Kim, J.; Cifelli, R.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Johnson, L. E.; Chandrasekar, V.

2016-12-01

San Francisco Bay is a highly urbanized estuary and the surrounding communities are susceptible to flooding along the bay shoreline and inland rivers and creeks that drain to the Bay. A forecast model that integrates fluvial and oceanic drivers is necessary for predicting flooding in this complex urban environment. This study introduces the state-of-the-art coupling of the USGS Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) with the NWS Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (RDHM) for San Francisco Bay. For this application, we utilize Delft3D-FM, a hydrodynamic model based on a flexible mesh grid, to calculate water levels that account for tidal forcing, seasonal water level anomalies, surge and in-Bay generated wind waves from the wind and pressure fields of a NWS forecast model. The tributary discharges from RDHM are dynamic, meteorologically driven allowing for operational use of CoSMoS which has previously relied on statistical estimates of river discharge. The flooding extent is determined by overlaying the resulting maximum water levels onto a recently updated 2-m digital elevation model of the study area which best resolves the extensive levee and tidal marsh systems in the region. The results we present here are focused on the interaction of the Bay and the Napa River watershed. This study demonstrates the interoperability of the CoSMoS and RDHM prediction models. We also use this pilot region to examine storm flooding impacts in a series of storm scenarios that simulate 5-100yr return period events in terms of either coastal or fluvial events. These scenarios demonstrate the wide range of possible flooding outcomes considering rainfall recurrence intervals, soil moisture conditions, storm surge, wind speed, and tides (spring and neap). With a simulated set of over 25 storm scenarios we show how the extent, level, and duration of flooding is dependent on these atmospheric and hydrologic parameters and we also determine a range of likely flood events.

Simulating the Fate of an Ionospheric Mass Ejection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, T. E.; Fok, M. H.; Delcourt, D. C.; Slinker, S. P.; Fedder, J. A.

2008-12-01

We report global ion kinetic (GIK) simulations of the 24-25 Sep 1998 storm, with all relevant ionospheric outflows including polar, auroral, and plasmaspheric winds. This storm included substantial periods of northward interplanetary magnetic field, but did develop a Dst of -200 nT at its peak. The solar disturbance resulted form a coronal mass ejection that reached a peak dynamic pressure at the magnetosphere of 6.2 nPa, and produced a substantial enhancement of auroral wind oxygen outflow from the dayside, which has been termed an "ionospheric mass ejection" in an earlier observational paper. We use the LFM global simulation model to produce electric and magnetic fields in the outer magnetosphere, the Strangeway-Zheng outflow scalings with Delcourt ion trajectories to include ionospheric outflows, and the Fok-Ober inner magnetospheric model for the plasmaspheric and ring current response to all particle populations. We assess the combined contributions of heliospheric and geospheric plasmas to the ring current for this event.

DOM in recharge waters of the Santa Ana River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Leenheer, J.A.; Aiken, G.R.; Woodside, G.; O'Connor-Patel, K.

2007-01-01

The urban Santa Ana River in California is the primary source of recharge water for Orange County's groundwater basin, which provides water to more than two million residents. This study was undertaken to determine the unidentified portion of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in various natural surface and reclaimed waters of the Santa Ana River Basin and to assess the potential health risk of this material. The most abundant organic contaminants were anionic detergent degradation products (constituting about 12% of the DOM), which have no known adverse health effects. In addition, high percentages of dissolved colloids from bacterial cell walls were found during storm flows; these colloids foul membranes used in water treatment. Although no significant health risks were ascribed to the newly characterized DOM, the authors note that even the small amounts of humic substances deposited during storm flow periods were responsible for significant increases in disinfection by_product formation potential in these waters.

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms

DOE PAGES

Anderson, B. R.; Millan, R. M.; Reeves, G. D.; ...

2015-12-02

We report that past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst >₋50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result inmore » flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.« less

Incident and recurrent back injuries among union carpenters.

PubMed

Lipscomb, H J; Cameron, W; Silverstein, B

2008-12-01

To describe incident and recurrent work-related back injuries among union carpenters, describe the hazard function for each and associated risk factors, and explore predictors of subsequent musculoskeletal back injury based on different definitions of the initial injury. This study identified a dynamic cohort of 18 768 carpenters who worked in the State of Washington 1989-2003, their hours worked each month, and their work-related back injuries and medical claims for treatment including ICD-9 codes. Using Poisson regression we calculated rates and rate ratios (RRs) of incident and recurrent injury adjusting for age, gender, union tenure and type of carpentry work. Predictors of subsequent musculoskeletal back injury were explored based on different definitions of the incident injury, as were time periods of greatest risk following return to work. Recurrent back injuries occurred at a rate 80% higher than initial injuries. Survival curves were significantly different for incident and recurrent injuries, but patterns of relative risk were similar. Individuals with greatest union tenure were at lowest risk, likely reflecting a healthy worker effect or lower physical exposures with seniority. Individuals with long periods of work disability with their first injury were at particularly high risk of subsequent musculoskeletal injury compared with those with no prior history (RR 2.3; 95% CI 2.0 to 2.7), as were individuals with degenerative diagnoses (RR 2.0; 95% CI 1.5 to 2.6). Risk for second injury peaked between 1000 and 1500 h after return to work and then gradually declined. Carpenters with long periods of work disability following back injury warrant accommodation and perhaps better rehabilitation efforts to avoid re-injury. Challenges to workplace accommodation and limited ability to clearly define readiness to return to work following injury demonstrate the need for primary prevention of back injuries through attention to engineering solutions among carpenters involved in strenuous work.

Delineating Fecal Contaminant Sources and Travel Times in a Karst Groundwater Basin, Inner Bluegrass Region, Kentucky

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, J. W.; Reed, T. M.; Fryar, A. E.; Brion, G. M.

2006-12-01

Because of preferential flowpaths via features such as sinkholes and conduits, karst aquifers are susceptible to non-point-source pollution from agricultural and urban drainage. With many karst aquifers being drinking- water sources, pathogens are contaminants of public health concern. Monitoring of microbial parameters (total coliforms [TC], atypical colonies [AC] and fecal coliform bacteria [FC]) transpired biweekly from December 2002 March 2004 and weekly from February October 2005 at Blue Hole Spring, which drains outlying farm lands and the town of Versailles in the Inner Bluegrass Region of Kentucky. Physicochemical parameters (discharge, temperature, specific conductance, and pH) were measured continuously during the entire period. The AC/TC ratio, which had been employed only in surface water-quality studies, was used with FC counts, precipitation and discharge data to determine sources of fecal loading to ground water as result of land-use practices. An AC/TC ratio < 10 demonstrates fresh input of fecal matter, while a larger ratio can represent a variety of occurrences, including aged fecal material input and/or lack of nutrient input into the system. AC/TC ratio data in the 2002 04 dataset behaved similarly to surface waters, with ratios > 10 during dry periods and < 10 during wet periods, while the 2005 data demonstrated a very irregular pattern. The difference in these two data sets indicated a compositional change within the groundwater basin between the two sampling periods, perhaps as a result of construction at a sewage treatment plant adjoining the spring. Solute (rhodamine WT fluorescent dye and bromide) and particle (1-μm diameter fluorescent latex microspheres) tracer tests were conducted during summer 2006 to examine contaminant mobility within the system under base-flow and storm-flow conditions. Rainfall was limited prior to the base-flow trace, totaling 0.025 cm within 2 weeks prior to the slug injection. Base-flow discharge averaged 400 m3/s and solute breakthrough began ~ 7.5 hours post injection and cleared the system after 77 hours. For the storm-flow trace, rainfall totaled 3.12 cm prior to injection, with another 9.35 cm of rainfall occurring over the two week monitoring period. Spring discharge during the storm-flow trace averaged 0.443 m3/s, with a maximum of 0.503 m3/s. Under storm-flow conditions solute breakthrough began ~ 2.33 hours post injection, with particle breakthrough beginning ~ 2.5 hours post injection. Bromide concentrations at the spring were < 0.1 ppm (the detection limit, or DL) 5.5 hours after injection, while rhodamine WT concentrations were < DL (0.1 ppb) 14 hours post injection. Microspheres were detected at the spring until 164 hours after injection. These traces demonstrate that storms in this karst basin can accelerate solute movement, and particles can remain mobile for as long as 1 week after introduction.

Dynamic Evolution of Cross-Correlations in the Chinese Stock Market

PubMed Central

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-01-01

The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management. PMID:24867071

Dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market.

PubMed

Ren, Fei; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2014-01-01

The analysis of cross-correlations is extensively applied for the understanding of interconnections in stock markets and the portfolio risk estimation. Current studies of correlations in Chinese market mainly focus on the static correlations between return series, and this calls for an urgent need to investigate their dynamic correlations. Our study aims to reveal the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chinese stock market, and offer an exact interpretation for the evolution behavior. The correlation matrices constructed from the return series of 367 A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange from January 4, 1999 to December 30, 2011 are calculated over a moving window with a size of 400 days. The evolutions of the statistical properties of the correlation coefficients, eigenvalues, and eigenvectors of the correlation matrices are carefully analyzed. We find that the stock correlations are significantly increased in the periods of two market crashes in 2001 and 2008, during which only five eigenvalues significantly deviate from the random correlation matrix, and the systemic risk is higher in these volatile periods than calm periods. By investigating the significant contributors of the deviating eigenvectors in different time periods, we observe a dynamic evolution behavior in business sectors such as IT, electronics, and real estate, which lead the rise (drop) before (after) the crashes. Our results provide new perspectives for the understanding of the dynamic evolution of cross-correlations in the Chines stock markets, and the result of risk estimation is valuable for the application of risk management.

Risk management considerations and the pregnancy handheld record. An audit of the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record.

PubMed

Toohill, Jocelyn; Soong, Barbara; Meldrum, Melissa

2006-12-01

Risk management is integral to the provision of contemporary health care. As maternity practices change and with a commitment on women being at the centre of care, one strategy has been for women to retain their records during the antenatal period. This paper explores the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record in a major tertiary facility and discusses the risk management implications when the record is not available upon presentation to the treating practitioner. Four audits were conducted over a 2 year period to determine the return rate of the pregnancy handheld record at time of admission for labour and birth. A total of 1096 records were returned out of a possible 1256 during the study. A 6.6% increase in the return rate was achieved over the 4 audit periods (82-88.5%) with an overall return rate of 85%. Our audit highlights the need for consumers, clinicians and heath care facilities to consider the advantages and disadvantages of the pregnancy handheld record, as well as the medico-legal responsibilities that ultimately fall back on the health facility.

Event Water Balance and Recharge at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, Georgia, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riley, J. W.; Aulenbach, B. T.

2016-12-01

Investigating catchment storage and runoff pathways allows a better mechanistic understanding of stream flow generation processes. This information can be used to elucidate processes such as those influencing baseflow that support human consumption and ecological needs. Here we describe storm runoff water budgets from 483 rain events to determine the conditions under which precipitation infiltrates to deeper storage that supports baseflow. Further, we examine the storage and recharge behavior of different storm characteristics and antecedent conditions. We use a simple water budget approach to achieve this in which Deep Recharge = (Precipitation) - (Storm Runoff) - (Event Change in Soil Storage). Hydrograph separation was used to determine the storm periods and split storm runoff into baseflow and quickflow. Quickflow was assumed to account for the event water lost to the stream. Data from volumetric water content sensors were used to calculate the soil profile water storage and the change in water storage over the course of an event. The remaining water after these two components was assumed to represent water available for deeper recharge. The median event quickflow:precipitation ratio was 11.8%. Event soil moisture recharge in the top one meter of soil accounted for a median of 65.3% of precipitation. Quickflow and shallow soil moisture recharge accounted for a median of 77.1% of the precipitation delivered to the watershed. Water budgets indicated that 43% of the events provided water for deeper recharge. Of these events, however, only 28% provided 50 mm or more of deep recharge. Because the focus was on events, when humidity was high and the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was low, we ignored the role of evapotranspiration. However, interception, which was not accounted for, would have resulted in less storm precipitation than was measured at the watershed rain gage. Furthermore, transpiration may have altered the post-storm water balance when VPD increased and before excess water was able to infiltrate to deeper storage. While uncertainty remains, this study provided insight into the partitioning of incoming precipitation and the conditions under which water was likely available for deeper recharge.

ALTUS Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Tony; Blakeslee, Richard; Russell, Larry W. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The ALTUS Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) is an uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV)-based project that will investigate thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Florida Everglades in August 2002. ACES is being conducted to both investigate storm electrical activity and its relationship to storm morphology, and validate Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite measurements. In addition, as part of NASA's UAV-based science demonstration program, this project will provide a scientifically useful demonstration of the utility and promise of UAV platforms for Earth science and applications observations. Part of the demonstration involves getting approvals from the Federal Aviation Administration and the NASA airworthiness flight safety review board. ACES will employ the ALTUS II aircraft, built by General Atomics - Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Key science objectives simultaneously addressed by ACES are to: (1) investigate lightning-storm relationships, (2) study storm electrical budgets, and (3) provide Lightning Imaging Sensor validation. The ACES payload, already developed and flown on ALTUS, includes electrical, magnetic, and optical sensors to remotely characterize the lightning activity and the electrical environment within and around thunderstorms. ACES will contribute important electrical and optical measurements not available from other sources. Also, the high altitude vantage point of the UAV observing platform (up to 55,000 feet) offers a useful 'cloud-top' perspective. By taking advantage of its slow flight speed (70 to 100 knots), long endurance, and high altitude flight, the ALTUS will be flown near, and when possible, above (but never into) thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be conducted over entire storm life cycles. In addition, concurrent ground-based observations will enable the UAV measurements to be more completely interpreted and evaluated in the context of the thunderstorm structure, evolution, and environment.

Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes over Yangtze River basin, China, considering the rainfall shift in the late 1970s

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Tao; Xie, Lian

2016-12-01

Precipitation extremes are the dominated causes for the formation of severe flood disasters at regional and local scales under the background of global climate change. In the present study, five annual extreme precipitation events, including 1, 7 and 30 day annual maximum rainfall and 95th and 97.5th percentile threshold levels, are analyzed relating to the reference period 1960-2011 from 140 meteorological stations over Yangtze River basin (YRB). A generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is applied to fit annual and percentile extreme precipitation events at each station with return periods up to 200 years. The entire time period is divided into preclimatic (preceding climatic) period 1960-1980 and aftclimatic (after climatic) period 1981-2011 by considering distinctly abrupt shift of precipitation regime in the late 1970s across YRB. And the Mann-Kendall trend test is adopted to conduct trend analysis during pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, for the purpose of exploring possible increasing/decreasing patterns in precipitation extremes. The results indicate that the increasing trends for return values during aftclimatic period change significantly in time and space in terms of different magnitudes of extreme precipitation, while the stations with significantly positive trends are mainly distributed in the vicinity of the mainstream and major tributaries as well as large lakes, this would result in more tremendous flood disasters in the mid-lower reaches of YRB, especially in southeast coastal regions. The increasing/decreasing linear trends based on annual maximum precipitation are also investigated in pre- and aftclimatic periods, respectively, whereas those changes are not significantly similar to the variations of return values during both subperiods. Moreover, spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation extremes become more uneven and unstable in the second half period over YRB.

Life-cycle economics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lunde, P.J.

1982-09-01

In a continuation of previous economic analyses, life-cycle economics of solar projects are discussed using the concept of net present value (NPV) or net worth. The discount rate is defined and illustrated and a life-cycle analysis is worked out based on no down payment and a 25-year loan. The advantages of rising NPV are discussed and illustrated using an energy conserving $100 storm window as an example. Real payback period is discussed and it is concluded that NPV is the only valid method for the evaluation of an investment. Return on investment is cited as a satisfactory alternative method. (MJJ)

Hydrologic data for urban studies in the Austin, Texas, metropolitan area, 1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slade, R.M.; Dorsey, M.E.; Gordon, J.D.; Mitchell, R.N.; Gaylord, J.L.

1981-01-01

This report contains rainfall and runoff data collected during the 1979 water year for the Austin, Texas, metropolitan area. In 1975, the program was expanded to include the collection of water-quality data. In 1978, the program was expanded to include a groundwater resources study of the south Austin metropolitan area in the Balcones fault zone. The information will be useful in determining the extent to which progressive urbanization will affect the yeild and mode of occurrence of storm runoff. The major streams in the study area are the Colorado River, Onion Creek, Barton Creek, Walnut Creek, Bull Creek, Boggy Creek, Shoal Creek, Williamson Creek, Slaughter Creek, Bear Creek, and Waller Creek. Detailed rainfall-runoff computations are presented for eight storm periods during the 1979 water year. Water-quality data for sites in the Austin metropolitan area are also given in this report. (USGS)

A subsynoptic-scale kinetic energy study of the Red River Valley tornado outbreak (AVE-SESAME 1)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, G. J.; Fuelberg, H. E.

1981-01-01

The subsynoptis-scale kinetic energy balance during the Red River Valley tornado outbreak is presented in order to diagnose storm environment interactions. Area-time averaged energetics indicate that horizontal flux convergence provides the major energy source to the region, while cross contour flow provides the greatest sink. Maximum energy variability is found in the upper levels in association with jet stream activity. Area averaged energetics at individual observation times show that the energy balance near times of maximum storm activity differs considerably from that of the remaining periods. The local kinetic energy balance over Oklahoma during the formation of a limited jet streak receives special attention. Cross contour production of energy is the dominant local source for jet development. Intense convection producing the Red River Valley tornadoes may have contributed to this local development by modifying the surrounding environment.

Influence of the St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm on the mid-latitude E and F regions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garnett Marques Brum, C.; Raizada, S.; Hajra, R.; Echer, E.

2016-12-01

We will discuss the impact of St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm that occurred between 17 -19 March 2015 on the E and F-region of the ionosphere. During the initial phase of this event the foF2 increases about 3 MHz in respect to the quiet period followed by a sharp decrease in foF2 values of about 10 MHz, reaching -6 MHz in the end of the main phase (Dst dropped to -225 nT on 17th March) as observed using Incoherent Scatter Radar and ionosonde located in Puerto Rico. However, during the rest of the disturbance, the F-region showed an increase in the electron concentration, in particular during the nighttime periods. Large fluctuations were observed in hmF2 with variations up to 150 km relative to quiet time period. This paper will also investigate the coupling between high and mid latitudes along with E and F region of the ionosphere over Arecibo.

20 CFR 702.285 - Report of earnings.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... earnings from employment or self-employment. This report may not be required any more frequently than semi... employment and self-employment and the periods for which the earnings apply. The employee must return the..., salaries, tips, sales commissions, fees for services provided, piecework and all revenue received from self...

Evolution of precipitation extremes in two large ensembles of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martel, Jean-Luc; Mailhot, Alain; Talbot, Guillaume; Brissette, François; Ludwig, Ralf; Frigon, Anne; Leduc, Martin; Turcotte, Richard

2017-04-01

Recent studies project significant changes in the future distribution of precipitation extremes due to global warming. It is likely that extreme precipitation intensity will increase in a future climate and that extreme events will be more frequent. In this work, annual maxima daily precipitation series from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) 50-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 2.8°x2.8°) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) 40-member large ensemble (spatial resolution of 1°x1°) are used to investigate extreme precipitation over the historical (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) periods. The use of these ensembles results in respectively 1 500 (30 years x 50 members) and 1200 (30 years x 40 members) simulated years over both the historical and future periods. These large datasets allow the computation of empirical daily extreme precipitation quantiles for large return periods. Using the CanESM2 and CESM1 large ensembles, extreme daily precipitation with return periods ranging from 2 to 100 years are computed in historical and future periods to assess the impact of climate change. Results indicate that daily precipitation extremes generally increase in the future over most land grid points and that these increases will also impact the 100-year extreme daily precipitation. Considering that many public infrastructures have lifespans exceeding 75 years, the increase in extremes has important implications on service levels of water infrastructures and public safety. Estimated increases in precipitation associated to very extreme precipitation events (e.g. 100 years) will drastically change the likelihood of flooding and their extent in future climate. These results, although interesting, need to be extended to sub-daily durations, relevant for urban flooding protection and urban infrastructure design (e.g. sewer networks, culverts). Models and simulations at finer spatial and temporal resolution are therefore needed.

Acceleration and loss of relativistic electrons during small geomagnetic storms.

PubMed

Anderson, B R; Millan, R M; Reeves, G D; Friedel, R H W

2015-12-16

Past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms ( D s t  > -50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result in flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.

Temporal and spatial distribution of landslides in the Redwood Creek Basin, Northern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madej, Mary Ann; Medley, C. Nicholas; Patterson, Glenn; Parker, Melanie J.

2011-01-01

Mass movement processes are a dominant means of supplying sediment to mountainous rivers of north coastal California, but the episodic nature of landslides represents a challenge to interpreting patterns of slope instability. This study compares two major landslide events occurring in 1964-1975 and in 1997 in the Redwood Creek basin in north coastal California. In 1997, a moderate-intensity, long-duration storm with high antecedent precipitation triggered 317 landslides with areas greater than 400 m2 in the 720-km2 Redwood Creek basin. The intensity-duration threshold for landslide initiation in 1997 was consistent with previously published values. Aerial photographs (1:6,000 scale) taken a few months after the 1997 storm facilitated the mapping of shallow debris slides, debris flows, and bank failures. The magnitude and location of the 1997 landslides were compared to the distributions of landslides generated by larger floods in 1964, 1972, and 1975. The volume of landslide material produced by the 1997 storm was an order of magnitude less than that generated in the earlier period. During both periods, inner gorge hillslopes produced many landslides, but the relative contribution of tributary basins to overall landslide production differed. Slope stability models can help identify areas susceptible to failure. The 22 percent of the watershed area classified as moderately to highly unstable by the SHALSTAB slope stability model included locations that generated almost 90 percent of the landslide volume during the 1997 storm.

The Ring Current Response to Solar and Interplanetary Storm Drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Bingham, S.; Kronberg, E. A.; Gkioulidou, M.; Huang, C. L.; Farrugia, C. J.

2014-12-01

The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CME's), corotating interaction regions (CIR's), high-speed streamers and other structures. The resulting changes in the ring current particle pressure, in turn, change the global magnetic field, controlling the transport of the radiation belts. To quantitatively determine the field changes during a storm throughout the magnetosphere, it is necessary to understand the transport, sources and losses of the particles that contribute to the ring current. Because the measured ring current energy spectra depend not only on local processes, but also on the history of the ions along their entire drift path, measurements of ring current energy spectra at two or more locations can be used to strongly constrain the time dependent magnetic and electric fields. In this study we use data predominantly from the Cluster and the Van Allen Probes, covering more than a full solar cycle (from 2001 to 2014). For the period 2001-2012, the Cluster CODIF and RAPID measurements of the inner magnetosphere are the primary data set used to monitor the storm time ring current variability. After 2012, the Cluster data set complements the data from the Van Allen Probes HOPE and RBSPICE instruments, providing additional measurements from different MLT and L shells. Selected storms from this periods, allow us to study the ring current dynamics and pressure changes, as a function of L shell, magnetic local time, and the type of interplanetary disturbances.

Energy and mass dependence of the contribution to storm-time plasma pressure observed by Arase/MEP-i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasahara, S.; Keika, K.; Yokota, S.; Hoshino, M.; Seki, K.; Nose, M.; Amano, T.; Yoshizumi, M.; Shinohara, I.

2017-12-01

The ring current is mainly controlled by the ion pressure and its spatial gradient. The ion pressure is dominated by ions with energies of a few to a few 100s keV. Oxygen ions of ionospheric origin can be energized in the plasma sheet and/or the inner magnetosphere up to a few tens to a few hundreds of keV. The ionospheric oxygen ions make a significant contribution to the ion pressure during geomagnetically active periods. This paper examines spatial variations and energy-spectral evolution of energetic ( 10 to 200 keV/q) ions during the main phase of a CIR-driven storm on 17 March 2017 (Storm 1) and a CME-driven storm on 27-28 May 2017 (Storm 2). We use ion data from the MEP-i instrument on board the Arase satellite. The instrument measured energetic ions with energies of 5-120 keV/q during Storm 1 and 9-180 keV/q during Storm 2; ion mass/charge was derived from energy and velocity measurements by an electrostatic analyzer and the time-of-flight system, respectively. Below is a brief summary of the MEP-i observations during the two storms. During Storm 1, MEP-i saw high fluxes of >10 keV/q protons and oxygen ions (and possibly other minor ions) at Lm 3.5 around midnight. MEP-i continued to observe high-flux ions until the end of the main phase. Both proton and oxygen ion pressures increased; the O-to-H ratio increased by about an order of magnitude, from 0.02 to 0.2-0.3. The high-flux >10 keV/q ions consisted of clearly different two populations: one dominated by 5-20 keV/q ions, likely originating from pre-existing cold plasma sheet population; and the other with structured dispersion signatures at 30-90 keV/q, likely due to the penetration of ions accelerated in the near-Earth plasma sheet. We found that both populations contributed to the total pressure almost equally. During Storm 2, MEP-i observed proton and oxygen high fluxes in a wide energy range (10-120 keV/q). The pressure increased for both protons and oxygen ions; the O-to-H ratio increased from 0.01 to 0.3 during the early main phase (SYM-H > -50 nT), and remained at a level of 0.2-1.0 until the storm minimum (SYM-H -140 nT). The pressure was contributed by protons and oxygen ions with energies fully covered by MEP-i. We found energy dependence of the O-to-H pressure ratio. It increased with increasing energies, and was higher than 1.0 for >100 keV/q.

Using Caffeine as a Water Quality Indicator in the Ambient Monitoring Program for Third Fork Creek Watershed, Durham, North Carolina

PubMed Central

Spence, Porché L

2015-01-01

Caffeine has been suggested as a chemical indicator for domestic wastewater in freshwater systems, although it is not included in water quality monitoring programs. The Third Fork Creek watershed in Durham, NC, is highly urbanized, with a history of receiving untreated wastewater from leaking and overflowing sanitary sewers. The poor water quality originating in the Third Fork Creek watershed threatens its intended uses and jeopardizes drinking water, aquatic life, and recreational activities provided by Jordan Lake. Organic waste contaminants have been detected in both Third Fork Creek watershed and Jordan Lake; however, the sampling periods were temporary, resulting in a few samples collected during nonstorm periods. It is recommended that (1) the concentration of caffeine and other organic waste contaminants are determined during storm and nonstorm periods and (2) caffeine is monitored regularly with traditional water quality indicators to evaluate the health of Third Fork Creek watershed. PMID:26157335

The Effect of Combat on Aircrew Subjective Readiness and LSO Grades during Operation Desert Shield/Storm.

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-05-01

These periods of SUSOPS often require many hours of mission planning and briefing by the same aircrew who later fly into combat. This ’front-loading’ of...CsCOLLATERIAL OUTr. GDUTIDIES a au LE.P Sa PlKF PoSTRIKE PLANNING EXEsERCISE DATE MUEAS 0aEMMF PsMEOCEATIONIMEST XETESTING!11 11 I1illilll ii I-. II...duration and infrequent occurrence, functional check flights (FCF) and post maintenance check flights ( PMCF ) were also included among the TRG flights

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, B. R.; Millan, R. M.; Reeves, G. D.

We report that past studies of radiation belt relativistic electrons have favored active storm time periods, while the effects of small geomagnetic storms (Dst >₋50 nT) have not been statistically characterized. In this timely study, given the current weak solar cycle, we identify 342 small storms from 1989 through 2000 and quantify the corresponding change in relativistic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit. Surprisingly, small storms can be equally as effective as large storms at enhancing and depleting fluxes. Slight differences exist, as small storms are 10% less likely to result in flux enhancement and 10% more likely to result inmore » flux depletion than large storms. Nevertheless, it is clear that neither acceleration nor loss mechanisms scale with storm drivers as would be expected. Small geomagnetic storms play a significant role in radiation belt relativistic electron dynamics and provide opportunities to gain new insights into the complex balance of acceleration and loss processes.« less

Time-Scales of Storm Flow Response in the Stream and Hyporheic Zone of a Small, Steep Forested Catchment - Contrasting the Potential Contributions from the Hillslope, Riparian-Hyporheic Zones, and the Stream Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wondzell, S. M.; Corson-rikert, H.; Haggerty, R.

2016-12-01

Storm-flow responses of small catchments are widely studied to identify water sources and mechanisms routing water through catchments. These studies typically observe rapid responses to rainfall with peak concentrations of many chemical constituents occurring on rising leg of the hydrograph. To explain this, some conceptual models suggest that stream water early in storm periods is dominated by riparian water sources with hillslope water sources dominating later in the storm. We examined changes in both stream and hyporheic water chemistry during a small, autumn storm in a forested mountain catchment to test this conceptual model. Our study site was located in WS01 at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, in Oregon, USA. The watershed has a narrow valley floor, always less than 15 m wide and occasionally interrupted by narrow, constrained bedrock sections. The valley floor has a longitudinal gradient of approximately 14%. Hyporheic water tends to flow parallel the valley axis and flow paths change little with changes in stream discharge, even during storm events. A well network is located in a 30-m reach near the bottom of the watershed. We sampled the stream, 9 hyporheic wells, and a hillslope well for DOC, DIC, Cl-, and NO3- during the storm. As expected, concentrations of DOC and NO3- increased rapidly on the rising leg of the hydrograph in both the stream and the hyporheic wells. However, the stream always had higher concentrations of DOC, and lower concentrations of NO3-, than did either the hillslope well or the hyporheic wells. These data suggest that the riparian/hyporheic zone is not a likely source of water influencing stream water chemistry on the rising leg of the hydrograph. These data agree with median travel time estimates of water flowing along hyporheic flow paths - it takes many 10s of hours for water to move from the riparian/hyporheic zone to the stream - a time scale that is far too slow to explain the rapid changes observed on the rising leg of the hydrograph. These data suggest that much of the early storm responses in stream chemistry may be generated by in-channel processes, or processes occurring in the shallow streambed with very short hyporheic residence times; the influence of the riparian zone, most of the hyporheic zone, or hillslopes must occur much later in the storm event.

LADOTD 24-Hour rainfall frequency maps and I-D-F curves : summary report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1991-08-01

Maximum annual 24-hour maps and Intensity-Duration-Frequency (I-D-F) curves for return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years were developed using hourly precipitation data. Data from 92 rain gauges for the period of 1948 to 1987 were compiled and...

Estimating the Risk of Tropical Cyclone Characteristics Along the United States Gulf of Mexico Coastline Using Different Statistical Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trepanier, J. C.; Ellis, K.; Jagger, T.; Needham, H.; Yuan, J.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclones, with their high wind speeds, high rainfall totals and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting off shore economic activities. Events, such as Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Isaac in 2012, can be physically different but still provide detrimental effects due to their locations of influence. There are a wide variety of ways to estimate the risk of occurrence of extreme tropical cyclones. Here, the combined risk of tropical cyclone storm surge and nearshore wind speed using a statistical copula is provided for 22 Gulf of Mexico coastal cities. Of the cities considered, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 m s-1 nearshore wind speed and a three meter surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). Additionally, a multivariate regression model is provided estimating the compound effects of tropical cyclone tracks, landfall central pressure, the amount of accumulated precipitation, and storm surge for five locations around Lake Pontchartrain in Louisiana. It is shown the most intense tropical cyclones typically approach from the south and a small change in the amount of rainfall or landfall central pressure leads to a large change in the final storm surge depth. Data are used from the National Hurricane Center, U-Surge, SURGEDAT, and Cooperative Observer Program. The differences in the two statistical approaches are discussed, along with the advantages and limitations to each. The goal of combining the results of the two studies is to gain a better understanding of the most appropriate risk estimation technique for a given area.

The United States Army Aviation Center and Fort Rucker during Operations DESERT SHIELD and DESERT STORM. Addendum to the 1991 Annual Command History

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

local communities. One night we [arranged for] Pizza Hut to deliver about 30 pizzas for ...the kids that were loading the trains."" Running that many... Pizza Hut 230 Planchon, John T., LTC 148, 150-155, 186, 216 Pans and Operations Division 106 251 [ ,"_,_ PM Trade 85 Pope Air Force Base 39 Presidio of...relaxed social morals of the West. They also wanted to return to a political and governmental system modeled on the Koran. The Moslem Brotherhood was but

The Complex Relationship Between Heavy Storms and Floods: Implication on Stormwater Drainage design and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y.; Mortuza, M. R.; Moges, E.; Yan, E.; Li, H. Y.

2017-12-01

Due to the lack of historical and future streamflow data for flood frequency analysis at or near most drainage sites, it is a common practice to directly estimate the design flood (maximum discharge or volume of stream for a given return period) based on storm frequency analysis and the resulted Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves. Such analysis assumes a direct relationship between storms and floods with, for example, the 10-year rainfall expected to produce the 10-year flood. However, in reality, a storm is just one factor among the many other hydrological and metrological factors that can affect the peak flow and hydrograph. Consequently, a heavy storm does not necessarily always lead to flooding or a flood events with the same frequency. This is evident by the observed difference in the seasonality of heavy storms and floods in most regions. In order to understand site specific causal-effect relationship between heavy storms and floods and improve the flood analysis for stormwater drainage design and management, we have examined the contributions of various factors that affect floods using statistical and information theory methods. Based on the identified dominant causal-effect relationships, hydrologic and probability analyses were conducted to develop the runoff IDF curves taking into consideration the snowmelt and rain-on-snow effect, the difference in the storm and flood seasonality, soil moisture conditions, and catchment potential for flash and riverine flooding. The approach was demonstrated using data from military installations located in different parts of the United States. The accuracy of the flood frequency analysis and the resulted runoff IDF curves were evaluated based on the runoff IDF curves developed from streamflow measurements.

Ionospheric acoustic and gravity waves associated with midlatitude thunderstorms

DOE PAGES

Lay, Erin H.; Shao, Xuan -Min; Kendrick, Alexander K.; ...

2015-07-30

Acoustic waves with periods of 2 - 4 minutes and gravity waves with periods of 6 - 16 minutes have been detected at ionospheric heights (250-350 km) using GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements. The area disturbed by these waves and the wave amplitudes have been associated with underlying thunderstorm activity. A statistical study comparing NEXRAD radar thunderstorm measurements with ionospheric acoustic and gravity waves in the mid-latitude U.S. Great Plains region was performed for the time period of May - July 2005. An increase of ionospheric acoustic wave disturbed area and amplitude is primarily associated with large thunderstorms (mesoscalemore » convective systems). Ionospheric gravity wave disturbed area and amplitude scale with thunderstorm activity, with even small storms (i.e. individual storm cells) producing an increase of gravity waves.« less

27 CFR 53.158 - Payment of tax by electronic fund transfer.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Payment of tax by... TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) FIREARMS MANUFACTURERS EXCISE TAXES... Taxes § 53.158 Payment of tax by electronic fund transfer. (a) In general. For return periods after...

Peruvian Higher Education: Expansions Amid Economic Crisis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Post, David

1991-01-01

Development of the Peruvian university system is described, focusing on periods of rapid expansion. Enrollment declines in 1974-78 are analyzed in the context of the educational reform program of the military government. The 1983 new university law, following return to civilian government, and future prospects for higher education are discussed.…

Monitoring and modeling conditions for regional shallow landslide initiation in the San Francisco Bay area, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Godt, J. W.

2012-12-01

Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California often trigger widespread landsliding, including debris flows that originate as shallow (<3 m) landslides. The strongest storms result in the loss of lives and millions of dollars in damage. Whereas precipitation-based rainfall intensity-duration landslide initiation thresholds are available for the SFBA, antecedent soil moisture conditions also play a major role in determining the likelihood for landslide generation from a given storm. Previous research has demonstrated that antecedent triggering conditions can be obtained using pre-storm precipitation thresholds (e.g., 250-400 mm of seasonal pre-storm rainfall). However, these types of thresholds do not account for the often cyclic pattern of wetting and drying that can occur early in the winter storm season (i.e. October - December), and which may skew the applicability of precipitation-only based thresholds. To account for these cyclic and constantly evolving soil moisture conditions, we have pursued methods to measure soil moisture directly and integrate these measurements into predictive analyses. During the past three years, the USGS installed a series of four subsurface hydrology monitoring stations in shallow landslide-prone locations of the SFBA to establish a soil-moisture-based antecedent threshold. In addition to soil moisture sensors, the monitoring stations are each equipped with piezometers to record positive pore water pressure that is likely required for shallow landslide initiation and a rain gauge to compare storm intensities with existing precipitation-based thresholds. Each monitoring station is located on a natural, grassy hillslope typically composed of silty sands, underlain by sandstone, sloping at approximately 30°, and with a depth to bedrock of approximately 1 meter - conditions typical of debris flow generation in the SFBA. Our observations reveal that various locations respond differently to seasonal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., Marin County) remaining at higher levels of saturation for longer periods of time during the winter compared to other areas (e.g., the East Bay Hills). In general, this coincides directly with relative precipitation totals in each region (i.e., Marin county typically receives more rainfall over a longer period of time than the East Bay). In those areas that are saturated for longer periods, the shallow landslide hazard is prolonged because these conditions are first needed for storm-related precipitation to subsequently generate positive pore pressure on the failure plane. Both piezometric field measurements and limit equilibrium slope stability analyses indicate that positive pore pressure is required for most shallow landslide failures to occur in the study regions. Based on measurements from two of the sites, our analyses further indicate that at least 2 kPa of pressure is required to trigger shallow landsliding. We measured this pressure at one of our sites in 2011, where more than 30 landslides, including several that mobilized into debris flows, occurred. Additional monitoring at these sites will be used to further constrain and refine antecedent moisture-based thresholds for shallow landslide initiation.

Characteristics of nighttime E-region over Arecibo: Dependence on solar flux and geomagnetic variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raizada, Shikha; Brum, Christiano G. M.; Mathews, John D.; Gonzalez, Cristina; Franco, Efmi

2018-04-01

Electron concentration (Ne) inferred from Incoherent Scatter Radar (ISR) measurements has been used to determine the influence of solar flux and geomagnetic activity in the ionospheric E-region over Arecibo Observatory (AO). The approach is based on the determination of column integrated Ne, referred to as E-region total electron content (ErTEC) between 80 and 150 km altitude regions. The results discussed in this work are for the AO nighttime period. The study reveals higher ErTEC values during the low solar flux periods for all the seasons except for summer period. It is found that the E-region column abundance is higher in equinox periods than in the winter for low solar activity conditions. The column integrated Ne during the post-sunset/pre-sunrise periods always exceeds the midnight minima, independent of season or solar activity. This behavior has been attributed to the variations in the coupling processes from the F-region. The response of ErTEC to the geomagnetic variability is also examined for different solar flux conditions and seasons. During high solar flux periods, changes in Kp cause an ErTEC increase in summer and equinox, while producing a negative storm-like effect during the winter. Variations in ErTEC due to geomagnetic activity during low solar flux periods produce maximum variability in the E-region during equinox periods, while resulting in an increase/decrease in ErTEC before local midnight during the winter/summer periods, respectively.

National Program for Inspection of Non-Federal Dams. Williams Pond Dam (CT 00551), Thames River Basin, Lebanon, Connecticut. Phase I Inspection Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-10-01

GRA&I UnTucea B WILLIAMS POND DAM ~~1Z~ CT 00551 _ Distribution/ Availabilit Y Codes Avail and/or Dis~tj pecialS RIVER BASIN ~lIILEBANON, COXNNECTICUT...Inspection Report. Alternatives to these recommendations r 1 would include reducing the Williams Pond water levels during expected periods of intense storm...Materials Branch Engi’neering Division FRED J. VNS. Jr., Member Chief, De ’ggn Branch Engineering Division SAUL COOPER, -r Chief, Water Control Branch

A catchment scale water balance model for FIFE

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, E. F.; Sivapalan, M.; Thongs, D. J.

1992-01-01

A catchment scale water balance model is presented and used to predict evaporation from the King's Creek catchment at the First ISLSCP Field Experiment site on the Konza Prairie, Kansas. The model incorporates spatial variability in topography, soils, and precipitation to compute the land surface hydrologic fluxes. A network of 20 rain gages was employed to measure rainfall across the catchment in the summer of 1987. These data were spatially interpolated and used to drive the model during storm periods. During interstorm periods the model was driven by the estimated potential evaporation, which was calculated using net radiation data collected at site 2. Model-computed evaporation is compared to that observed, both at site 2 (grid location 1916-BRS) and the catchment scale, for the simulation period from June 1 to October 9, 1987.

Comparison of storm-time changes of geomagnetic field at ground and at MAGSAT altitudes, part 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dejesusparada, N. (Principal Investigator); Kane, R. P.; Trivedi, N. B.

1982-01-01

The latitudinal distributions of delta H, delta X, delta Y, and delta Z were studied for quiet and disturbed periods. For quiet periods, the average patterns showed some variations common to dusk and dawn, thus indicating probable ground anomaly. However, there were significant differences too between dusk and dawn, indicating considerable diurnal variation effects. Particularly in delta Y, these effects were large and were symmetric about the dip equator. For disturbed day passes, the quiet day patterns were considered as base levels and the latter were subtracted from the former. The resulting residual latitudinal patterns were, on the average, symmetric about the geographical equator. However, individual passes showed considerable north-south asymmetries, probably indicating meanderings of the central plane of the magnetospheric ring current.

The Leonids: The Lion King of Meteor Showers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, J.

1995-08-01

The night of November 12-13, 1833, sparked awareness of the Leonids meteor shower as well as the birth of meteor astronomy: from much of North America that night, a rain of shooting stars, a shower of flashing light, spread over the entire sky. More than one superstitious person on that spectacular night was certain that the end of the world had come. People kept repeating that the meteors were falling "like snowflakes". In the aftermath of the display, it was realized that meteors could be produced by an extraterrestrial source: streams or swarms of particle that travel around the Sun in more or less well-defined orbits, grazing, at least at one point, the orbit of our Earth. In 1866, G. Schiaparelli established the orbit of the stream of particles that produce the Leonids, and soon others independently noted a striking resemblance of the Leonids with the orbit of periodic comet Tempel-Tuttle. The comet and meteor stream were subsequently found to be following nearly identical orbits with periods of roughly 33 years. A few years earlier (in 1863) it was discovered similarly spectacular Leonid meteor displays had occured prior to 1833, with accounts of the Leonids traceable as far back as A.D. 902. Based solely on the 33-year cycle, a prediction for a meteor storm in the year 1866 verified. In 1899 a re-enactment of the 1833 storm was confidently expected, despite calculations that demonstrated that the orbit of P/Tempel-Tuttle (and probably the associated Leonid particles) were likely perturbed by the planets Jupiter and Saturn. The failure of a storm to materialize seriously damaged the credibility of astronomers in the eyes of the general public. Since 1899, the Leonids have been following a rather erratic and unpredictable schedule: meteor storms unexpectedly occurred in 1900 and 1901; no storm was noted in 1931 and 1932, leading many to believe that Leonid activity had significantly declined. But during the 1960s, they again revived, capped by a short-lived display in 1966 that possibly rivaled even the 1833 display. Radar observations of this 1966 display showed the densest part of the Leonid stream to be just 35000 km wide; the Earth swept through this filament of debris in just one hour. With the impending return of P/Tempel-Tuttle due in February 1998, prospect for another Leonid storm have begun to increase again. D.K. Yeomans' definitive study (1981) concerning the orbit of P/Tempel-Tuttle and its implications on future Leonid activity is examined. Yeomans takes into account the distribution of dust surrounding P/Tempel-Tuttle, determining that the majority of dust ejected from the comet evolves to a position lagging behind the comet and outside of its orbit. This is likely an artifact of solar radiation pressure and planetary perturbations on the Leonid particles. In 1994, Yeomans re-calculated the orbit of P/Tempel-Tuttle and re-computed future Leonid shower maxima. Yeomans notes that the conditions in 1998-1999 are optimum for a significant Leonid shower, but cautions that such an event is not certain because the dust particle distribution near the comet is far from uniform. The author concurs with Yeomans on this final point and concludes, based on the previous six Leonid epochs, that there is a possibility of a storm in any year from 1997 through 2000. He also believes that no reliable prediction as to the time of Leonid maximum for any given year can be made because we would be trying to anticipate interception not just a single stream along the orbit of P/Tempel-Tuttle, but possibly one of several: each stream having evolved from the solid debris spewed by the comet at previous perihelion passages. To get a storm, Earth must somehow interact with another dense, yet narrow filament of meteoric material which, unfortunately, cannot be anticipated or seen until it impacts with Earth's atmosphere. Still, the upcoming years hold the potential of some truly exciting observing with the prospects of much-better than normal Leonid activity. All night observing sessions worldwide, which would offer the best hope of catching sight of any unexpectedly strong meteor activity, is strongly urged in the coming years on the night of November 17-18.

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection. PMID:27732674

Modeling Coastal Vulnerability through Space and Time.

PubMed

Hopper, Thomas; Meixler, Marcia S

2016-01-01

Coastal ecosystems experience a wide range of stressors including wave forces, storm surge, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic modification and are thus vulnerable to erosion. Urban coastal ecosystems are especially important due to the large populations these limited ecosystems serve. However, few studies have addressed the issue of urban coastal vulnerability at the landscape scale with spatial data that are finely resolved. The purpose of this study was to model and map coastal vulnerability and the role of natural habitats in reducing vulnerability in Jamaica Bay, New York, in terms of nine coastal vulnerability metrics (relief, wave exposure, geomorphology, natural habitats, exposure, exposure with no habitat, habitat role, erodible shoreline, and surge) under past (1609), current (2015), and future (2080) scenarios using InVEST 3.2.0. We analyzed vulnerability results both spatially and across all time periods, by stakeholder (ownership) and by distance to damage from Hurricane Sandy. We found significant differences in vulnerability metrics between past, current and future scenarios for all nine metrics except relief and wave exposure. The marsh islands in the center of the bay are currently vulnerable. In the future, these islands will likely be inundated, placing additional areas of the shoreline increasingly at risk. Significant differences in vulnerability exist between stakeholders; the Breezy Point Cooperative and Gateway National Recreation Area had the largest erodible shoreline segments. Significant correlations exist for all vulnerability (exposure/surge) and storm damage combinations except for exposure and distance to artificial debris. Coastal protective features, ranging from storm surge barriers and levees to natural features (e.g. wetlands), have been promoted to decrease future flood risk to communities in coastal areas around the world. Our methods of combining coastal vulnerability results with additional data and across multiple time periods have considerable potential to provide valuable predictions that resource managers can effectively use to identify areas for restoration and protection.

Note on a modified return period scale for upper-truncated unbounded flood distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bardsley, Earl

2017-01-01

Probability distributions unbounded to the right often give good fits to annual discharge maxima. However, all hydrological processes are in reality constrained by physical upper limits, though not necessarily well defined. A result of this contradiction is that for sufficiently small exceedance probabilities the unbounded distributions anticipate flood magnitudes which are impossibly large. This raises the question of whether displayed return period scales should, as is current practice, have some given number of years, such as 500 years, as the terminating rightmost tick-point. This carries the implication that the scale might be extended indefinitely to the right with a corresponding indefinite increase in flood magnitude. An alternative, suggested here, is to introduce a sufficiently high upper truncation point to the flood distribution and modify the return period scale accordingly. The rightmost tick-mark then becomes infinity, corresponding to the upper truncation point discharge. The truncation point is likely to be set as being above any physical upper bound and the return period scale will change only slightly over all practical return periods of operational interest. The rightmost infinity tick point is therefore proposed, not as an operational measure, but rather to signal in flood plots that the return period scale does not extend indefinitely to the right.

Modeling ionospheric foF 2 response during geomagnetic storms using neural network and linear regression techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tshisaphungo, Mpho; Habarulema, John Bosco; McKinnell, Lee-Anne

2018-06-01

In this paper, the modeling of the ionospheric foF 2 changes during geomagnetic storms by means of neural network (NN) and linear regression (LR) techniques is presented. The results will lead to a valuable tool to model the complex ionospheric changes during disturbed days in an operational space weather monitoring and forecasting environment. The storm-time foF 2 data during 1996-2014 from Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), South Africa ionosonde station was used in modeling. In this paper, six storms were reserved to validate the models and hence not used in the modeling process. We found that the performance of both NN and LR models is comparable during selected storms which fell within the data period (1996-2014) used in modeling. However, when validated on storm periods beyond 1996-2014, the NN model gives a better performance (R = 0.62) compared to LR model (R = 0.56) for a storm that reached a minimum Dst index of -155 nT during 19-23 December 2015. We also found that both NN and LR models are capable of capturing the ionospheric foF 2 responses during two great geomagnetic storms (28 October-1 November 2003 and 6-12 November 2004) which have been demonstrated to be difficult storms to model in previous studies.

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guit, Bill

2017-01-01

This presentation will describe recent EOS Aqua and Aura operational collision avoidance experience during periods of solar and geomagnetic storm activity. It will highlight challenges faced by the operations team during short-notice, high-risk predicted close approaches. The presentation will highlight the evolution of the operational collision avoidance process for the EOS Aqua and Aura missions. The presentation will highlight operational challenges that have occurred, process improvements that have been implemented and identify potential future challenges.

Shoreline Evolution and Coastal Resiliency at Two Military Installations: Investigating the Potential for and Impacts of Loss of Protecting Barriers

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

control barrier morphology and migration (and potentially drowning). We have developed a numerical model of barrier evolution over the centennial ...required to maintain barrier geometries over centennial timescales. Long-term storm histories for each region show a consistent picture of...landward of the flood tidal delta is an area of over 40km2 that is over 9m deep, with some depressions as deep as 12m. During periods of rising sea-level

IPPP GPS for tracking loading deformations induced by the storm Xynthia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferenc, Marcell; Nicolas, Joëlle; Durand, Frédéric; Li, Zhao; Boy, Jean-Paul; Perosanz, Félix; van Dam, Tonie

2015-04-01

Xynthia was a violent windstorm that progressed over Western Europe between the 27th of February and the 1st of March 2010. The huge low-pressure system (pressure drop of 40 mbar and storm surge of 1.5 m at La Rochelle tide gauge) crossed France from the southwest to the northeast over the course of about 20 hours. In this study, we first investigate the detailed spatial and temporal characteristics of the Xynthia storm. Then we analyse the effect of this storm on sub-daily 3D GPS (Global Positioning System) position time series computed with the iPPP (integer fixed ambiguity Precise Point Positioning) GINS-PC software method using the REPRO 2 products for about 100 stations of the French GNSS permanent network (RGP). We compare the GPS observations with the predicted time series derived from different geodynamical models for non-tidal atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological loading effects. These predicted time series are computed using different environmental data sets. For atmospheric pressure we used the ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) or MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) pressure fields. Concerning the ocean's response we use different hypotheses such as inverse barometer (IB), non-IB or a dynamic ocean's response to winds and pressure forcing applying 2 Dimensions Gravity Waves model (MOG2D). We perform a spatial analysis to study the different behaviour of the coastal and inland sites. This study allows us to identify the ocean's dynamics on the continental shelf during the passage of this fast moving low pressure system. For comparison, these analyses are also performed for calm periods.

Development of sustainable stormwater management using simulation-optimization approach under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Yu-ru; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Climate change had altered the hydrological processes globally with result that the extreme events have an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency. In particular, the high intensity rainfall cause the severe flooding had significantly impacted on human life and property in recently year. The traditional facility to handle runoff is the drainage system which is designed in accordance with the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. However, the flooding occurs once the drainage capacity is overwhelmed by excess stormwater. Thus the general solution are that expanding and upgrading the existing drainage system or increasing the design return period for new development areas to reduce flooding. Besides, another technique which is low impact development(LID) is regarded as more sustainable solution for stormwater management. The concept of LID is to control stormwater at the source by decentralized practices and mimic the predevelopment hydrologic conditions including storage, retention and high rate of infiltration. In contrast to conventional drainage system aims to move runoff away as quickly as possible, the LID approach attempts to keep runoff on site to reduce peak and volume of flow. The purpose of this research is to identify the most cost-effective measures for stormwater management after the analysis of the strategies combining drainage system and LID on various land use planning. The case study is a rural community in Hsinchu in Taiwan, and having residential areas, farms and pond. It is assumed that two land use layout are planned and drainage system are designed for 2-,and 5-year return period events. On the other hand, three LID technologies, namely green roof, porous pavement and rain barrel, are selected to place in the scenario of the drainage system for 2-year return period event, and the minimal peak flow is target to optimize LID placement by simulated annealing algorithm. Moreover, the design storm under climate change are derived from the revised IDF curve. After that the storm water management model (SWMM) is used to simulate these strategies for a spectrum of design storms, the cost and the benefit can be analyzed to provide government an advice in developing stormwater management under uncertain conditions of climate change.

Impact of the winter 2013-2014 series of severe Western Europe storms on a double-barred sandy coast: Beach and dune erosion and megacusp embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Marieu, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Splinter, Kristen D.; Robinet, Arhur; Sénéchal, Nadia; Ferreira, Sophie

2015-06-01

The winter of 2013/2014 was characterized by a striking pattern of temporal and spatial extreme storm wave clustering in Western Europe. The 110-km long Gironde coast, SW France, was exposed to the most energetic wave conditions over the last 18 years. The period was outstanding in terms of the available energy to move sediment and cause large-scale erosion with the 2-month average significant wave height (Hs) exceeding 3.6 m, just below the 0.95 quantile, and 4 distinct 10-year return period storms with Hs > 9 m. These storm waves caused unprecedented beach and dune erosion along the Gironde coast, including severely damaged sea defences at the coastal towns. At the end of the winter, dune erosion scarp height was highly variable alongshore and often exceeded 10 m. Megacusp embayments were observed along the Gironde coast with an average alongshore spacing of 1000 m in the south progressively decreasing to 500 m in the north, with an average cross-shore amplitude of 20 m. While beach megacusps were previously observed to systematically couple to the inner bar along the Gironde coast during low- to moderate-energy wave conditions, severe storm-driven megacusp embayments cutting the dune were found to be enforced and coupled to the outer crescentic bar. A detailed inspection of the 1500 m-long bimonthly topographic surveys of Truc Vert beach shows that in early January 2014 the outstanding shore-normal incident storm swell 'Hercules', with Hs and peak wave period Tp peaking at 9.6 m and 22 s, respectively, triggered the formation of a localized megacusp embayment with the erosion scarp height exceeding 6 m in its centre where the dune retreat reached 30 m. The subsequent storms progressively smoothed the megacusp by the end of the winter, mostly through severe erosion of the megacusp horns. Because of the very long period (16 s < Tp < 23 s) storm waves with persistent shore-normal incidence, the well-developed outer crescentic bar observed prior to the winter did not straighten. Instead, the outer-bar three-dimensionality developed further, particularly during 'Hercules'. Our observations indicate that both the antecedent outer sandbar morphology and storm wave characteristics, including period and angle of incidence, govern patterns of beach and dune erosion along open multiple-barred sandy coasts during severe storms.

Oceanic Influences on North Pacific Storm Track Activity and Southwest United States Precipitation and Streamflow from 1915-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bateman, R.

2016-12-01

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) exert influence over the position and strength of storm tracks through ocean interactions with the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comprehensive set of satellite and in situ data from 1915-2011 to show how the IPO and AMO may have influenced and are related to historical cool season storm track activity (STA) over the north Pacific and southwest US (SWUS) precipitation and streamflow. SWUS river basin water supply for people, agriculture and energy production throughout the year is predominantly dependent on snowpack depth and by changes in ocean conditions across multiple time scales. Positive STA, precipitation, and streamflow anomalies are most strongly related to positive (warm) IPO phases across datasets and time periods while negative (cool) IPO phases are more robustly linked to negative precipitation anomalies, especially during the mid-20th century. Sub-basin precipitation is differentially dependent on STA over specific north Pacific regions. Additionally, results show evidence for a small eastward shift in north Pacific STA and a lack in mean poleward movement in historical data. Moreover, the interannual to interdecadal variability discussed in this study will continue to be important to water resource managers throughout the region, regardless of future changes to the mean regional state of the climate.

Neuronal Substrates of Relapse to Cocaine-Seeking Behavior: Role of Prefrontal Cortex

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rebec, George V.; Sun, WenLin

2005-01-01

The return to drug seeking, even after prolonged periods of abstinence, is a defining feature of cocaine addiction. The neural circuitry underlying relapse has been identified in neuropharmacological studies of experimental animals, typically rats, and supported in brain imaging studies of human addicts. Although the nucleus accumbens (NAcc),…

Phase shifts of the human circadian system and performance deficit during the periods of transition : III, North-South flight.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1965-12-01

At periodic intervals throughout the biological day, biomedical assessments were made for a week prior to jet flight to Santiago, Chile, for 12 days at Santiago, and for a week following return to Washington, D.C. Although previous East-West and West...

Return to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis: the role of serial ultrasonography.

PubMed

O'Connor, Tony E; Skinner, Liam J; Kiely, Patrick; Fenton, John E

2011-08-01

Splenic rupture is a rare but potentially fatal complication of infectious mononucleosis. Athletes returning to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis are at potential risk of splenic rupture secondary to abdominal trauma. No clear consensus exists as to when it is safe to allow these athletes to return to contact sports. Suggested periods of abstinence have ranged from 2 weeks to 6 months. We outline our experiences with the use of abdominal ultrasonography at 1 month after the diagnosis of infectious mononucleosis as a means of determining when athletes can safely return to contact sports. Our study group was made up of 19 such patients (mean age: 16.7 yr). We found that 16 of these patients (84%) had normal splenic dimensions on ultrasonography 1 month after diagnosis, and they were therefore allowed to return to contact sports. While the remaining 3 patients had an enlarged spleen at 1 month, their splenic dimensions had all returned to normal when ultrasonographic examination was repeated at 2 months postdiagnosis. We conclude that serial abdominal ultrasonography allows for informed decision making in determining when athletes can safely return to contact sports following infectious mononucleosis.

Phase shifts of the human circadian system and performance deficit during the periods of transition : I, East-West flight.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1965-12-01

At periodic intervals throughout the biological day, biomedical assessments were made for a week prior to jet flight to Santiago, Chile, for 12 days at Santiago, and for a week following return to Washington, D.C. Although previous East-West and West...

Phase shifts of the human circadian system and performance deficit during the periods of transition : II, West-East flight.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1965-12-01

At periodic intervals throughout the biological day, biomedical assessments were made for a week prior to jet flight to Rome, for 12 days at Rome, and for a week following return to Oklahoma City. A primary shift of circadian periodicity was manifest...

Simulating extreme low-discharge events for the Rhine using a stochastic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Mens, Marjolein; Schasfoort, Femke; Diermanse, Ferdinand; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2017-04-01

The specific features of hydrological droughts make them more difficult to be analysed than other water-related phenomena: longer time scales (months to several years) so less historical events are available, and the drought severity and associate damage depends on a combination of variables with no clear prevalence (e.g., total water deficit, maximum deficit and duration). As part of drought risk analysis, which aims to provide insight into the variability of hydrological conditions and associated socio-economic impacts, long synthetic time series should therefore be developed. In this contribution, we increase the length of the available inflow time series using stochastic autoregressive modelling. This enhancement could improve the characterization of the extreme range and can define extreme droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns that can lead to distinctly different damages. The methodology consists of: 1) fitting an autoregressive model (AR, ARMA…) to the available records; 2) generating extended time series (thousands of years); 3) performing a frequency analysis with different characteristic variables (total, deficit, maximum deficit and so on); and 4) selecting extreme drought events associated with different characteristic variables and return periods. The methodology was applied to the Rhine river discharge at location Lobith, where the Rhine enters The Netherlands. A monthly ARMA(1,1) autoregressive model with seasonally varying parameters was fitted and successfully validated to the historical records available since year 1901. The maximum monthly deficit with respect to a threshold value of 1800 m3/s and the average discharge for a given time span in m3/s were chosen as indicators to identify drought periods. A synthetic series of 10,000 years of discharges was generated using the validated ARMA model. Two time spans were considered in the analysis: the whole calendar year and the half-year period between April and September (the summer half year, where water demands are highest). Frequency analysis was performed for both indicators and time spans for the generated time series and the historical records. The comparison between observed and generated series showed that the ARMA model provides a good reproduction of the maximum deficits and total discharges, especially for the summer half-year period. The resulting synthetic series are therefore considered credible. These synthetic series, with its wealth of information, can then be used as inputs for the damage assessment models, together with information on precipitation deficits, in order to estimate the risk that lower inflows can have on the urban, the agricultural, the shipping sector and so on. This will help in associating economic losses and periods of return, as well as for estimating how droughts with similar periods of return but different patterns can lead to different damages. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This study has been supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the IMPREX project (grant agreement no: 641.811), and by the Climate-KIC Pioneers into Practice Program supported by the European Union's EIT.

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

Regional earthquake loss estimation in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Winter, Benjamin

2013-04-01

Beside storm events geophysical events cause a majority of natural hazard losses on a global scale. However, in alpine regions with a moderate earthquake risk potential like in the study area and thereupon connected consequences on the collective memory this source of risk is often neglected in contrast to gravitational and hydrological hazards processes. In this context, the comparative analysis of potential disasters and emergencies on a national level in Switzerland (Katarisk study) has shown that earthquakes are the most serious source of risk in general. In order to estimate the potential losses of earthquake events for different return periods and loss dimensions of extreme events the following study was conducted in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano - South Tyrol (Italy). The applied methodology follows the generally accepted risk concept based on the risk components hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability, whereby risk is not defined holistically (direct, indirect, tangible and intangible) but with the risk category losses on buildings and inventory as a general risk proxy. The hazard analysis is based on a regional macroseismic scenario approach. Thereby, the settlement centre of each community (116 communities) is defined as potential epicentre. For each epicentre four different epicentral scenarios (return periods of 98, 475, 975 and 2475 years) are calculated based on the simple but approved and generally accepted attenuation law according to Sponheuer (1960). The relevant input parameters to calculate the epicentral scenarios are (i) the macroseismic intensity and (ii) the focal depth. The considered macroseismic intensities are based on a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) of the Italian earthquake catalogue on a community level (Dipartimento della Protezione Civile). The relevant focal depth are considered as a mean within a defined buffer of the focal depths of the harmonized earthquake catalogues of Italy and Switzerland as well as earthquake data of the US Geological Survey (USGS). The asset database to identify the elements at risk is developed under consideration of an address dataset, the land-use plan, official building footprints, building heights based on a normalized digital surface model, official construction costs for different building types (buildings cross cubatures), official statistical data concerning households on community level and insurance data based mean inventory values. To analyse the structural vulnerability and consequently the potential structural losses, community specific mean damage ratios based on the EMS-98 approach and the historic development of the building stock within the individual communities are estimated. Inventory losses are assumed with 30 percent of the structural losses. Thus, for each epicentre a loss-frequency-relationship can be calculated and the most severe epicentral scenarios can be identified.

Evaluation of the precipitation-runoff modeling system, Beaver Creek basin, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bower, D.E.

1985-01-01

The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was evaluated with data from Cane branch and Helton Branch in the Beaver Creek basin of Kentucky. Because of previous studies, 10.6 years of record were available to establish a data base for the basin including 60 storms for Cane Branch and 50 storms for Helton Branch. The model was calibrated initially using data from the 1956-58 water years. Runoff predicted by the model was 94.7% of the observed runoff at Cane Branch (mined area) and 96.9% at Helton Branch (unmined area). After the model and data base were modified, the model was refitted to the 1956-58 data for Helton Branch. It then predicted 98.6% of the runoff for the 10.6-year period. The model parameters from Helton Branch were then used to simulate the Cane Branch runoff and discharge. The model predicted 102.6% of the observed runoff at Cane Branch for the 10.6 years. The simulations produced reasonable storm volumes and peak discharges. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters indicated the parameters associated with soil moisture are the most sensitive. The model was used to predict sediment concentration and daily sediment load for selected storm periods. The sediment computations indicated the model can be used to predict sediment concentrations during storm events. (USGS)

Probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis for Cairo, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badawy, Ahmed; Korrat, Ibrahim; El-Hadidy, Mahmoud; Gaber, Hanan

2016-04-01

Cairo is the capital of Egypt and the largest city in the Arab world and Africa, and the sixteenth largest metropolitan area in the world. It was founded in the tenth century (969 ad) and is 1046 years old. It has long been a center of the region's political and cultural life. Therefore, the earthquake risk assessment for Cairo has a great importance. The present work aims to analysis the earthquake hazard of Cairo as a key input's element for the risk assessment. The regional seismotectonics setting shows that Cairo could be affected by both far- and near-field seismic sources. The seismic hazard of Cairo has been estimated using the probabilistic seismic hazard approach. The logic tree frame work was used during the calculations. Epistemic uncertainties were considered into account by using alternative seismotectonics models and alternative ground motion prediction equations. Seismic hazard values have been estimated within a grid of 0.1° × 0.1 ° spacing for all of Cairo's districts at different spectral periods and four return periods (224, 615, 1230, and 4745 years). Moreover, the uniform hazard spectra have been calculated at the same return periods. The pattern of the contour maps show that the highest values of the peak ground acceleration is concentrated in the eastern zone's districts (e.g., El Nozha) and the lowest values at the northern and western zone's districts (e.g., El Sharabiya and El Khalifa).

Petroleum and hazardous material releases from industrial facilities associated with Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Sengul, Hatice

2010-04-01

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

Ensemble-based evaluation of extreme water levels for the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eelsalu, Maris; Soomere, Tarmo

2016-04-01

The risks and damages associated with coastal flooding that are naturally associated with an increase in the magnitude of extreme storm surges are one of the largest concerns of countries with extensive low-lying nearshore areas. The relevant risks are even more contrast for semi-enclosed water bodies such as the Baltic Sea where subtidal (weekly-scale) variations in the water volume of the sea substantially contribute to the water level and lead to large spreading of projections of future extreme water levels. We explore the options for using large ensembles of projections to more reliably evaluate return periods of extreme water levels. Single projections of the ensemble are constructed by means of fitting several sets of block maxima with various extreme value distributions. The ensemble is based on two simulated data sets produced in the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. A hindcast by the Rossby Centre Ocean model is sampled with a resolution of 6 h and a similar hindcast by the circulation model NEMO with a resolution of 1 h. As the annual maxima of water levels in the Baltic Sea are not always uncorrelated, we employ maxima for calendar years and for stormy seasons. As the shape parameter of the Generalised Extreme Value distribution changes its sign and substantially varies in magnitude along the eastern coast of the Baltic Sea, the use of a single distribution for the entire coast is inappropriate. The ensemble involves projections based on the Generalised Extreme Value, Gumbel and Weibull distributions. The parameters of these distributions are evaluated using three different ways: maximum likelihood method and method of moments based on both biased and unbiased estimates. The total number of projections in the ensemble is 40. As some of the resulting estimates contain limited additional information, the members of pairs of projections that are highly correlated are assigned weights 0.6. A comparison of the ensemble-based projection of extreme water levels and their return periods with similar estimates derived from local observations reveals an interesting pattern of match and mismatch. The match is almost perfect in measurement sites where local effects (e.g., wave-induced set-up or local surge in very shallow areas that are not resolved by circulation models) do not contribute to the observed values of water level. There is, however, substantial mismatch between projected and observed extreme values for most of the Estonian coast. The mismatch is largest for sections that are open to high waves and for several bays that are deeply cut into mainland but open for predominant strong wind directions. Detailed quantification of this mismatch eventually makes it possible to develop substantially improved estimates of extreme water levels in sections where local effects considerably contribute into the total water level.

Coupling of ionosphere and troposphere during the occurrence of isolated tornadoes on November 20, 1973

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Phan, T.; Smith, R. E.

1979-01-01

The paper examines the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere during time periods with isolated tornadoes on the stormy day of November 20, 1973. Observations are made with a high-frequency CW Doppler array system, in which radio receivers located at a central site monitored signals transmitted from three independent remote sites on three sets of frequencies (4.0125, 4.759, 5.734 MHz) and reflected off the ionosphere approximately halfway between the transmitter and receiver sites. It is shown that the sources of the gravity waves associated with tornadoes are always on the squall lines and near the tornado touchdown locations, and that analyses of ionospheric Doppler sounder observations of medium-scale gravity waves can contribute to the understanding of the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere during periods of severe storm activity.

Quantification of increased flood risk due to global climate change for urban river management planning.

PubMed

Morita, M

2011-01-01

Global climate change is expected to affect future rainfall patterns. These changes should be taken into account when assessing future flooding risks. This study presents a method for quantifying the increase in flood risk caused by global climate change for use in urban flood risk management. Flood risk in this context is defined as the product of flood damage potential and the probability of its occurrence. The study uses a geographic information system-based flood damage prediction model to calculate the flood damage caused by design storms with different return periods. Estimation of the monetary damages these storms produce and their return periods are precursors to flood risk calculations. The design storms are developed from modified intensity-duration-frequency relationships generated by simulations of global climate change scenarios (e.g. CGCM2A2). The risk assessment method is applied to the Kanda River basin in Tokyo, Japan. The assessment provides insights not only into the flood risk cost increase due to global warming, and the impact that increase may have on flood control infrastructure planning.

Adverse respiratory symptoms and environmental exposures among children and adolescents following Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Rath, Barbara; Young, Elizabeth A; Harris, Amy; Perrin, Keith; Bronfin, Daniel R; Ratard, Raoult; Vandyke, Russell; Goldshore, Matthew; Magnus, Manya

2011-01-01

Children and adolescents are especially vulnerable to environmental exposures and their respiratory effects. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, residents experienced multiple adverse environmental exposures. We characterized the association between upper respiratory symptoms (URS) and lower respiratory symptoms (LRS) and environmental exposures among children and adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina. We conducted a cross-sectional study following the return of the population to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina (October 2005 and February 2006) among a convenience sample of children and adolescents attending New Orleans health facilities. We used uni-, bi-, and multivariable analyses to describe participants, exposures, and associations with URS/LRS. Of 1,243 participants, 47% were Caucasian, 50% were male, and 72% were younger than 11 years of age. Multiple environmental exposures were identified during and after the storm and at current residences: roof/glass/storm damage (50%), outside mold (22%), dust (18%), and flood damage (15%). Self-reported URS and LRS (76% and 36%, respectively) were higher after the hurricane than before the hurricane (22% and 9%, respectively, p<0.0001). Roof/glass/storm damage at home was associated with URS (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15, 2.21) and LRS (AOR=1.35, 95% CI 1.01, 1.80), while mold growth at home was associated with LRS (AOR=1.47, 95% CI 1.02, 2.12). Children and adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina experienced environmental exposures associated with increased prevalence of reported URS and LRS. Additional research is needed to investigate the long-term health impacts of Hurricane Katrina.

Extreme Statistics of Storm Surges in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kulikov, E. A.; Medvedev, I. P.

2017-11-01

Statistical analysis of the extreme values of the Baltic Sea level has been performed for a series of observations for 15-125 years at 13 tide gauge stations. It is shown that the empirical relation between value of extreme sea level rises or ebbs (caused by storm events) and its return period in the Baltic Sea can be well approximated by the Gumbel probability distribution. The maximum values of extreme floods/ebbs of the 100-year recurrence were observed in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Riga. The two longest data series, observed in Stockholm and Vyborg over 125 years, have shown a significant deviation from the Gumbel distribution for the rarest events. Statistical analysis of the hourly sea level data series reveals some asymmetry in the variability of the Baltic Sea level. The probability of rises proved higher than that of ebbs. As for the magnitude of the 100-year recurrence surge, it considerably exceeded the magnitude of ebbs almost everywhere. This asymmetry effect can be attributed to the influence of low atmospheric pressure during storms. A statistical study of extreme values has also been applied to sea level series for Narva over the period of 1994-2000, which were simulated by the ROMS numerical model. Comparisons of the "simulated" and "observed" extreme sea level distributions show that the model reproduces quite satisfactorily extreme floods of "moderate" magnitude; however, it underestimates sea level changes for the most powerful storm surges.

Global Electric Circuit Diurnal Variation Derived from Storm Overflight and Satellite Optical Lightning Datasets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bateman, M. J.; Bailey, J. C.

2011-01-01

We have combined analyses of over 1000 high altitude aircraft observations of electrified clouds with diurnal lightning statistics from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) to produce an estimate of the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit. Using basic assumptions about the mean storm currents as a function of flash rate and location, and the global electric circuit, our estimate of the current in the global electric circuit matches the Carnegie curve diurnal variation to within 4% for all but two short periods of time. The agreement with the Carnegie curve was obtained without any tuning or adjustment of the satellite or aircraft data. Mean contributions to the global electric circuit from land and ocean thunderstorms are 1.1 kA (land) and 0.7 kA (ocean). Contributions to the global electric circuit from ESCs are 0.22 kA for ocean storms and 0.04 kA for land storms. Using our analysis, the mean total conduction current for the global electric circuit is 2.0 kA.

KSC-05PD-1529

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, FLA. Mike Rein (right), division chief of Media Services at the NASA News Center, walks the area near the countdown clock (far right) at sunrise. The scene is the calm before the storm of journalists, photographers and television media who have descended upon KSC to capture the Return to Flight mission STS-114 to the International Space Station. This is the first Space Shuttle flight since the loss of Columbia, STS-107, on Feb. 1, 2003. Launch is scheduled for 3:51 p.m. EDT from Launch Pad 39B. The 12-day mission is expected to end with touchdown at NASA Kennedy Space Centers Shuttle Landing Facility at 11:06 a.m. July 25.

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES): A UAV-Based Science Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, R. J.; Croskey, C. L.; Desch, M. D.; Farrell, W. M.; Goldberg, R. A.; Houser, J. G.; Kim, H. S.; Mach, D. M.; Mitchell, J. D.; Stoneburner, J. C.

2003-01-01

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)- based project that investigated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Florida Everglades in August 2002. ACES was conducted to investigate storm electrical activity and its relationship to storm morphology, and to validate satellite-based lightning measurements. In addition, as part of the NASA sponsored UAV-based science demonstration program, this project provided a scientifically useful demonstration of the utility and promise of UAV platforms for Earth science and applications observations. ACES employed the Altus II aircraft, built by General Atomics - Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Key science objectives simultaneously addressed by ACES are to: (1) investigate lightning-storm relationships, (2) study storm electrical budgets, and provide Lightning Imaging Sensor validation. The ACES payload included electrical, magnetic, and optical sensors to remotely characterize the lightning activity and the electrical environment within and around thunderstorms. ACES contributed important electrical and optical measurements not available from other sources. Also, the high altitude vantage point of the UAV observing platform (up to 55,000 feet) provided cloud-top perspective. By taking advantage of its slow flight speed (70 to 100 knots), long endurance, and high altitude flight, the Altus was flown near, and when possible, over (but never into) thunderstorms for long periods of time that allowed investigations to be conducted over entire storm life cycles. An innovative real time weather system was used to identify and vector the aircraft to selected thunderstorms and safely fly around these storms, while, at the same time monitor the weather near our base of operations. In addition, concurrent ground-based observations that included radar (Miami and Key West WSRBD, NASA NPOL), satellite imagery, and lightning (NALDN and Los Alamos EDOT) enable the UAV measurements to be more completely interpreted and evaluated in the context of the thunderstorm structure, evolution, and environment.

Large charge moment change lightning on 31 May to 1 June 2013, including the El Reno tornadic storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, Timothy J.; Cummer, Steven A.; Petersen, Danyal; Flores-Rivera, Lizxandra; Lyons, Walter A.; MacGorman, Donald; Beasley, William

2015-04-01

On 31 May 2013, a line of severe tornadic thunderstorms (the El Reno event) developed during the local afternoon in central Oklahoma, USA. Within range of the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, the evolution of the event can be separated into three distinct periods: an Early period (before 02:00 UTC on 1 June) when the storm consisted of discrete supercells, a Middle period (02:00-05:00 UTC) when the convection began merging into a linear feature and stratiform precipitation developed, and a Late period (after 05:00 UTC) featuring a mature mesoscale convective system (MCS). Each of these periods demonstrated distinct patterns in the large (>100 C km) charge moment change (CMC) lightning that was produced. During the Early period, large-CMC positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) lightning was produced in the convective cores of supercells. These flashes were small in area (typically <500 km2) and were commonly associated with a sloping midlevel positive charge region in the echo overhang on the storm's forward flank. The Middle period featured a population of larger +CMCs (>500 km2, >300 C km) in the developing stratiform, similar to typical sprite-parent lightning in MCSs. During the Late period, convective large CMC +CGs ceased and instead large-CMC negative CGs were produced in and near the MCS convection. These flashes neutralized charge both in convection as well as in adjacent stratiform and anvil precipitation. The results suggest that the CMC metric has potential applications for studying tropospheric weather.

Comparison of the UAF Ionosphere Model with Incoherent-Scatter Radar Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAllister, J.; Maurits, S.; Kulchitsky, A.; Watkins, B.

2004-12-01

The UAF Eulerian Parallel Polar Ionosphere Model (UAF EPPIM) is a first-principles three-dimensional time-dependent representation of the northern polar ionosphere (>50 degrees north latitude). The model routinely generates short-term (~2 hours) ionospheric forecasts in real-time. It may also be run in post-processing/batch mode for specific time periods, including long-term (multi-year) simulations. The model code has been extensively validated (~100k comparisons/model year) against ionosonde foF2 data during quiet and moderate solar activity in 2002-2004 with reasonable fidelity (typical relative RMS 10-20% for summer daytime, 30-50% winter nighttime). However, ionosonde data is frequently not available during geomagnetic disturbances. The objective of the work reported here is to compare model outputs with available incoherent-scatter radar data during the storm period of October-November 2003. Model accuracy is examined for this period and compared to model performance during geomagnetically quiet and moderate circumstances. Possible improvements are suggested which are likely to boost model fidelity during storm conditions.

Periplatform carbonate flux in the northern Bahamas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilskaln, Cynthia H.; Neumann, A. Conrad; Bane, John M.

1989-09-01

In a preliminary effort to quantify the off-bank transport and vertical flux of shallow-water carbonates, a sediment trap was moored at 500 m in Northwest Providence Channel, northern, Bahamas. Two months of particulate flux data collected during a fair-weather, storm-free period revealed that the flux components differed significantly from that of the underlying sediments. Planktonic foraminifera tests, pteropod shells, fragments and coccoliths contributed 61% to the total flux of carbonate material, whereas bank-derived carbonates constituted 39%. Coccolith calcite represented half of the carbonate mass flux in the fine size fraction (< 63 μm) of the trap material. In contrast, the underlying periplatform ooze sediments consist of 80% bank-derived and 20% planktonic carbonate components. The results suggest that the flux and deposition of bank-derived carbonates in the periplatform environment are variable on a temporal scale, where a relatively minor proportion of bank-derived components is deposited during calm, storm-free periods, with the balance delivered during the passage of frequent, low-amplitude seasonal storms and occasional hurricanes.

26 CFR 1.6655(e)-1 - Time and manner for making election under the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Additions to... to Use Different Annualization Periods for Corporate Estimated Tax, must be filed by the 15th day of... Internal Revenue Service Center where the corporation files its income tax return. (c) Revocability of...

Development of lidar sensor for cloud-based measurements during convective conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vishnu, R.; Bhavani Kumar, Y.; Rao, T. Narayana; Nair, Anish Kumar M.; Jayaraman, A.

2016-05-01

Atmospheric convection is a natural phenomena associated with heat transport. Convection is strong during daylight periods and rigorous in summer months. Severe ground heating associated with strong winds experienced during these periods. Tropics are considered as the source regions for strong convection. Formation of thunder storm clouds is common during this period. Location of cloud base and its associated dynamics is important to understand the influence of convection on the atmosphere. Lidars are sensitive to Mie scattering and are the suitable instruments for locating clouds in the atmosphere than instruments utilizing the radio frequency spectrum. Thunder storm clouds are composed of hydrometers and strongly scatter the laser light. Recently, a lidar technique was developed at National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), a Department of Space (DOS) unit, located at Gadanki near Tirupati. The lidar technique employs slant path operation and provides high resolution measurements on cloud base location in real-time. The laser based remote sensing technique allows measurement of atmosphere for every second at 7.5 m range resolution. The high resolution data permits assessment of updrafts at the cloud base. The lidar also provides real-time convective boundary layer height using aerosols as the tracers of atmospheric dynamics. The developed lidar sensor is planned for up-gradation with scanning facility to understand the cloud dynamics in the spatial direction. In this presentation, we present the lidar sensor technology and utilization of its technology for high resolution cloud base measurements during convective conditions over lidar site, Gadanki.

Variability of sediment transport in beach and coastal dune environments, Brittany, France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Regnauld, Hervé; Louboutin, Roland

2002-06-01

On the coasts of Brittany (English Channel and Bay of Biscay), barrier systems were surveyed between 1995 and 2000. The beach profiles have a very high variability, which cannot be statistically explained by linear correlation with the wind, the waves, or the tides. The behaviour of the profile is represented on a phase diagram (speed of profile change: Y-axis, thickness of the profile: X-axis). The points in the center of the profile "rotate" around an average equilibrium which is seldom measured in the field. The seaward edge of the beaches oscillates between loss and gain, but with a net positive budget. The landward top of the beach displays a range of oscillations. The dunes always have a positive budget. The whole behaviour of the system is explained if the precise succession of anticyclonic and cyclonic winds is taken into account. Long periods of easterly winds (offshorewards) tend to produce a calm sea and to increase tidal sediment settling on the seafloor. If an onshore westerly storm occurs just after such a period, it hits a sediment-rich environment and produces a net accumulation on both the beach and the dunes. Periods of westerly calm to moderate winds do not help accumulation: a full going storm will hit a depleted environment and produce erosion. The speed of dune accretion and the budget of the beaches seem to partly depend on the ratio of cyclonic to anticyclonic conditions.

Chemical concentrations and instantaneous loads, Green River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway near Seattle, Washington, 2013–15

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conn, Kathleen E.; Black, Robert W.; Vanderpool-Kimura, Ann M.; Foreman, James R.; Peterson, Norman T.; Senter, Craig A.; Sissel, Stephen K.

2015-12-23

Median chemical concentrations in suspended-sediment samples were greater than median chemical concentrations in fine bed sediment (less than 62.5 µm) samples, which were greater than median chemical concentrations in paired bulk bed sediment (less than 2 mm) samples. Suspended-sediment concentration, sediment particle-size distribution, and general water-quality parameters were measured concurrent with the chemistry sampling. From this discrete data, combined with the continuous streamflow record, estimates of instantaneous sediment and chemical loads from the Green River to the Lower Duwamish Waterway were calculated. For most compounds, loads were higher during storms than during baseline conditions because of high streamflow and high chemical concentrations. The highest loads occurred during dam releases (periods when stored runoff from a prior storm is released from the Howard Hanson Dam into the upper Green River) because of the high river streamflow and high suspended-sediment concentration, even when chemical concentrations were lower than concentrations measured during storm events. 

North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, J.C.

The primary mode of North Atlantic track variability is identified using rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) on monthly fields of root-mean-squares of daily high-pass filtered (2-8-day periods) sea level pressures (SLP) for winters (December-February) 1900-92. It is examined in terms of its association with (1) monthly mean SLP fields, (2) regional low-frequency teleconnections, and (3) the seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. 32 refs., 9 figs.

Multi-Decadal analysis of Global Trends in Microseism Intensity: A Proxy for Changes in Extremal Storm Activity and Oceanic Wave State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anthony, R. E.; Aster, R. C.; Rowe, C. A.

2016-12-01

The Earth's seismic noise spectrum features two globally ubiquitous peaks near 8 and 16 s periods (secondary and primary bands) that arise when storm-generated ocean gravity waves are converted to seismic energy, predominantly into Rayleigh waves. Because of its regionally integrative nature, microseism intensity and other seismographic data from long running sites can provide useful proxies for wave state. Expanding an earlier study of global microseism trends (Aster et al., 2010), we analyze digitally-archived, up-to-date (through late 2016) multi-decadal seismic data from stations of global seismographic networks to characterize the spatiotemporal evolution of wave climate over the past >20 years. The IRIS Noise Tool Kit (Bahavair et al., 2013) is used to produce ground motion power spectral density (PSD) estimates in 3-hour overlapping time series segments. The result of this effort is a longer duration and more broadly geographically distributed PSD database than attained in previous studies, particularly for the primary microseism band. Integrating power within the primary and secondary microseism bands enables regional characterization of spatially-integrated trends in wave states and storm event statistics of varying thresholds. The results of these analyses are then interpreted within the context of recognized modes of atmospheric variability, including the particularly strong 2015-2016 El Niño. We note a number of statistically significant increasing trends in both raw microseism power and storm activity occurring at multiple stations in the Northwest Atlantic and Southeast Pacific consistent with generally increased wave heights and storminess in these regions. Such trends in wave activity have the potential to significantly influence coastal environments particularly under rising global sea levels.

Marine data and its potential for coastal and offshore applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Elke; Weisse, Ralf

2013-04-01

The coastDat data set is a compilation of coastal analyses and scenarios for the future from various sources. It contains no direct measurements but results from numerical models that have been driven either by observed data in order to achieve the best possible representation of observed past conditions or by climate change scenarios for the near future. One of the key objectives for developing coastDat was to derive a consistent and mostly homogeneous database for assessing marine weather statistics and long-term changes. Here, homogeneity refers to a data set which is free from effects caused by changes in instrumentation or measurement techniques. Contrary to direct measurements which are often rare and incomplete, coastDat offers a unique combination of consistent atmospheric, oceanic, sea state and other parameters at high spatial and temporal detail, even for places and variables for which no measurements have been made. The backbones of coastDat are regional wind, wave and storm surge hindcast and scenarios mainly for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore hindcast simulations are available for temperature, salinity, water level, u- and v-components for the North Sea for last 60 years. We will discuss the methodology to derive these data, their quality and limitations in comparison with observations. Long-term changes in the temperature, wind, wave and storm surge climate will be discussed and potential future changes will be assessed. We will conclude with a number of coastal and offshore applications (e.g. ship design, coastal protection, oil risk modelling and marine energy use) of coastDat demonstrating some of the potentials of the data set in hazard assessment. For example data from coastDat have been used extensively for designing, planning and installation of offshore wind farms. Return periods of extreme wind speed, surge and wave heights are used by a variety of users involved in the design and construction of offshore wind parks. Moreover, planning of installation and maintenance requires the estimation of probabilities of weather windows; that is, for example the probability of an extended period with wave heights below a given threshold to enable installation and/or maintenance. Data from coastDat were frequently used in such cases as observational data are too often too short to derive reliable statistics. www.coastdat.de

How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

2015-12-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

Trading Space for Time in Design Storm Estimation Using Radar Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haberlandt, U.; Berndt, C.

2017-12-01

Intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are frequently used for the derivation of design storms. These curves are usually estimated from rain gauges and are valid for extreme rainfall at local observed points. Two common problems are involved. Regionalization of rainfall statistics for unobserved locations and the use of areal reduction factors (ARF) for the adjustment to larger catchments are required. Weather radar data are available with large spatial coverage and high resolution in space and could be used for a direct derivation of areal design storms for any location and catchment size. However, one problem with radar data is the relatively short observation period for the estimation of extreme events. This study deals with the estimation of area-intensity-duration-frequency (AIDF) curves and areal-reduction-factors (ARF) directly from weather radar data. The main objective is to answer the question if it is possible to trade space for time in the estimation of both characteristics to compensate for the short radar observation periods. In addition, a stratification of the temporal sample according to annual temperature indices is tried to distinguish "colder" and "warmer" climate years. This might eventually show a way for predicting future changes in AIDF curves and ARFs. First, radar data are adjusted with rainfall observations from the daily station network. Thereafter, AIDF curves and ARFs are calculated for different spatial and temporal sample sizes. The AIDF and ARFs are compared regarding their temporal and spatial variability considering also the temperature conditions. In order to reduce spatial variability a grouping of locations according to their climatological and physiographical characteristics is carried out. The data used for this study cover about 20 years of observations from the radar device located near Hanover in Northern Germany and 500 non-recording rain gauges as well as a set of 8 recording rain gauges for validation. AIDF curves and ARFS are analyzed for rainfall durations from 5 minutes to 24 hours and return periods from 1 year to 30 years. It is hypothesized, that the spatial variability of AIDF and ARF characteristics decreases with increasing sample size, grouping and normalization and is finally comparable to temporal variability.

Storminess and geo-hydrological events affecting small coastal basins in a terraced Mediterranean environment.

PubMed

Cevasco, Andrea; Diodato, Nazzareno; Revellino, Paola; Fiorillo, Francesco; Grelle, Gerardo; Guadagno, Francesco M

2015-11-01

This study was prompted by the occurrence of an extreme Damaging geo-Hydrological Event (DHE) which occurred on October 25th 2011 and which affected a wide area of the northern Mediterranean region. After analysing the storm by means of the precipitation time series, the study attempts to relate the October 25th 2011 DHE with a series of other DHEs that occurred in the period 1954-2012, assessed via the use of historical data and classified according to severity, with a Storm Erosivity Indicator (Ra). The annual mean of the Ra value (2582 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) y(-1)) confirmed that the study area is one of the European regions with the highest rainfall erosivity level. A shift in storminess during 1991-2012 with respect to 1954-1990 was observed. A return period of 1000 years was calculated for the single storm erosivity of October 25th, which contributed to 84% of the total annual storm erosivity of 2011 A quite good agreement was found comparing DHE distribution and severity with Ra anomalies over time. As a matter of fact, most of the low severity DHEs (62.5%) occurred in years in which the Ra was below the average value. Moreover, almost all DHEs (93%) ranging from medium- to very high-severity occurred in years for which the Ra exceeded the average value. With regard to the occurrence of the most severe DHE classes, a threshold of the Ra and a recurrence time of approximately 3300 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) y(-1) and 12 years, respectively, were identified. Finally, some evidences suggest that an increasing frequency of DHEs is expected in the forthcoming years. It is argued that understanding these issues is a major priority for future research in order to improve land and urban planning strategies for preserving people and the environment, leading ultimately to an effective risk reduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling of sediment transport pattern in the mouth of the Rhone delta: Role of storm and flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudet, L.; Sabatier, F.; Radakovitch, O.

2017-11-01

The delta of the Rhone River is one of the most important in the Mediterranean Sea. Beach erosion problems along its coasts have developed in recent decades, raising the need for a better understanding of the sediment transport processes at the Rhone mouth and the adjacent beaches. Because field data are very difficult to obtain in such an energetic environment, a high-resolution numerical model (Delft3D) is applied to this area. This model is calibrated by taking into account hydrodynamical and morphological observations. Special attention is given to storm and flood events, which are the major morphological drivers. Therefore, scenarios with different wave and flow conditions are run to estimate the influence of these events on the sediment transport. The analysis of historical hydrological data shows that storms from the southeast represent 70% of the events between 1979 to 2010 and that 20% of them were followed by a flood within a few days. Consequently, specific simulations for such conditions are performed using Delft3D. The model simulates trends in the bedload sediment transport that are consistent with the bedforms observed in the bathymetry data. The total sediment transport at the outlet is only influenced by the river flow, but sediment transport at the mouth-bar depends on an equilibrium between the influence of floods and storms and the succession of these events. A period of 2 or 3 days separating the storm and flood peaks is sufficient to differentiate wave and river flow-induced sediment transport. The waves constrain the total transport on the mouth-bar and shallow mouth-lobe and induce a longshore transfer towards the adjacent beaches. The riverine sediments can be exported seaward only if a flood is energetic enough compared to the storm intensity. Regardless, when a flood is greater than the decadal return period (7800 m3 s-1), the sediment is transported from the outlet across the mouth-bar and is directed offshore.

The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joly, Alain; Jorgensen, Dave; Shapiro, Melvyn A.; Thorpe, Alan; Bessemoulin, Pierre; Browning, Keith A.; Cammas, Jean-Pierre; Chalon, Jean-Pierre; Clough, Sidney A.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Eymard, Laurence; Gall, Robert; Hildebrand, Peter H.; Langland, Rolf H.; Lemaître, Yvon; Lynch, Peter; Moore, James A.; Persson, P. Ola G.; Snyder, Chris; Wakimoto, Roger M.

1997-09-01

The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX) will address the life cycle of cyclones evolving over the North Atlantic Ocean in January and February 1997. The objectives of FASTEX are to improve the forecasts of end-of-storm-track cyclogenesis (primarily in the eastern Atlantic but with applicability to the Pacific) in the range 24 to 72 h, to enable the testing of theoretical ideas on cyclone formation and development, and to document the vertical and the mesoscale structure of cloud systems in mature cyclones and their relation to the dynamics. The observing system includes ships that will remain in the vicinity of the main baroclinic zone in the central Atlantic Ocean, jet aircraft that will fly and drop sondes off the east coast of North America or over the central Atlantic Ocean, turboprop aircraft that will survey mature cyclones off Ireland with dropsondes, and airborne Doppler radars, including ASTRAIA/ELDORA. Radiosounding frequency around the North Atlantic basin will be increased, as well as the number of drifting buoys. These facilities will be activated during multiple-day intensive observing periods in order to observe the same meteorological systems at several stages of their life cycle. A central archive will be developed in quasi-real time in Toulouse, France, thus allowing data to be made widely available to the scientific community.

Marsh Vertical Accretion in a Southern California Estuary, U.S.A.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahoon, Donald R.; Lynch, James C.; Powell, Abby N.

1996-07-01

Vertical accretion was measured between October 1992 and March 1994 in low and high saltmarsh zones in the north arm of Tijuana estuary from feldspar market horizons and soil corings. Accretion in the Spartina foliosalow marsh (2-8·5 cm) was related almost entirely to episodic storm-induced river flows between January and March 1993, with daily tidal flooding contributing little or no sediment during the subsequent 12-month period of no river flow. Accretion in the Salicornia subterminalishigh marsh was low (≈1-2 mm) throughout the 17-month measuring period. High water levels in the salt marsh associated with the storm flows were enhanced in early January 1993 by the monthly extreme high sea level, when the low and high marshes were flooded about 0·5 m above normal high tide levels. Storm flows in January-March 1993 mobilized about 5 million tonnes of sediment, of which the low salt marsh trapped an estimated 31 941 tonnes, including 971 tonnes of carbon and 77 tonnes of nitrogen. Sediment trapping by the salt marsh during episodic winter floods plays an important role in the long-term maintenance of productivity of Tijuana estuary through nutrient retention and maintenance of marsh surface elevation. The potential exists, however, for predicted accelerated rates of sea-level rise to out-pace marsh surface elevation gain during extended periods of drought (i.e. low sediment inputs) which are not uncommon for this arid region.

Plasmapause Variations During the 17 March 2013 Identified by Ground-based and Space-based GPS Signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bishop, R. L.; Coster, A. J.; Turner, D. L.; Nikoukar, R.; Lemon, C.; Bust, G. S.; Roeder, J. L.

2016-12-01

Earth's plasmasphere is a region of cold (T ≤ 1 eV), dense (n 101 to 104 cm-3) plasma located in the inner magnetosphere and coincident with a portion of the ionosphere that co-rotates with the planet in the geomagnetic field. Plasmaspheric plasma originates in the ionosphere and fills the magnetic flux tubes on which the corotation electric field dominates over the convection electric field. The corotation electric field results from Earth's spinning magnetic field while the convection electric field results from the solar wind driving of global plasma convection within the magnetosphere. The outer boundary of the plasmasphere is the plasmapause, and it corresponds to the transition region between corotation-driven vs. convection-driven plasmas. During quiet periods of low solar wind speed and weak interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), ionospheric outflow from lower altitudes can fill the plasmasphere over the course of several days with the plasmapause expanding to higher L-shells. However, when the convection electric field is enhanced during active solar wind periods, such as magnetic storms, the plasmasphere can be rapidly eroded to L 2.5 or less leading to many interesting magnetospheric and ionospheric features such as plasmapause erosion, plasmaspheric plumes and ionospheric plasma outflows. In this presentation, we focus on the dynamics of the plasmapause as observed by ground-based and space-borne GPS receivers. We will focus on the period 15 March to 19 March 2013, which includes the on-set and recovery periods of a strong geomagnetic storm. We will examine the location and erosion time scales of the plasmapause during the active portion of the storm. An extensive global network of ground-based scientific receivers ( 4000) will be utilized in the study. Space-based observations will be obtained from data from the CORISS GPS radio occultation (RO) sensor on the C/NOFS satellite as well as the COSMIC GPS RO sensors.

The coastDat data set and its potential for coastal and offshore applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, E.; Weisse, R.

2012-12-01

The coastDat data set is a compilation of coastal analyses and scenarios for the future from various sources. It contains no direct measurements but results from numerical models that have been driven either by observed data in order to achieve the best possible representation of observed past conditions or by climate change scenarios for the near future. One of the key objectives for developing coastDat was to derive a consistent and mostly homogeneous database for assessing marine weather statistics and long-term changes. Here, homogeneity refers to a data set which is free from effects caused by changes in instrumentation or measurement techniques. Contrary to direct measurements which are often rare and incomplete, coastDat offers a unique combination of consistent atmospheric, oceanic, sea state and other parameters at high spatial and temporal detail, even for places and variables for which no measurements have been made. The backbones of coastDat are regional wind, wave and storm surge hindcast and scenarios mainly for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Furthermore hindcast simulations are available for temperature, salinity, water level, u- and v-components for the North Sea for last 60 years. We will discuss the methodology to derive these data, their quality and limitations in comparison with observations. Long-term changes in the temperature, wind, wave and storm surge climate will be discussed and potential future changes will be assessed. We will conclude with a number of coastal and offshore applications (e.g. ship design, coastal protection, oil risk modelling and marine energy use) of coastDat demonstrating some of the potentials of the data set in hazard assessment. For example data from coastDat have been used extensively for designing, planning and installation of offshore wind farms. Return periods of extreme wind speed, surge and wave heights are used by a variety of users involved in the design and construction of offshore wind parks. Moreover, planning of installation and maintenance requires the estimation of probabilities of weather windows; that is, for example the probability of an extended period with wave heights below a given threshold to enable installation and/or maintenance. Data from coastDat were frequently used in such cases as observational data are too often too short to derive reliable statistics.

Ring Current He Ion Control by Bounce Resonant ULF Waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hyomin; Gerrard, Andrew J.; Lanzerotti, Louis J.; Soto-Chavez, Rualdo; Cohen, Ross J.; Manweiler, Jerry W.

2017-12-01

Ring current energy He ion (˜65 keV to ˜520 keV) differential flux data from the Radiation Belt Storm Probe Ion Composition Experiment (RBSPICE) instrument aboard the Van Allan Probes spacecraft show considerable variability during quiet solar wind and geomagnetic time periods. Such variability is apparent from orbit to orbit (˜9 h) of the spacecraft and is observed to be ˜50-100% of the nominal flux. Using data from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrument, also aboard the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, we identify that a dominant source of this variability is from ULF waveforms with periods of tens of seconds. These periods correspond to the bounce resonant timescales of the ring current He ions being measured by RBSPICE. A statistical survey using the particle and field data for one full spacecraft precession period (approximately 2 years) shows that the wave and He ion flux variations are generally anticorrelated, suggesting the bounce resonant pitch angle scattering process as a major component in the scattering of He ions.

Modeling the behavior of ionosphere above Millstone Hill during the September 21-27, 1998 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lei, Jiuhou; Liu, Libo; Wan, Weixing; Zhang, Shun-Rong

2004-08-01

A theoretical ionospheric model is employed to investigate the ionospheric behavior as observed by the incoherent-scatter radar (ISR) at Millstone Hill during the September 21-27, 1998 storm. The observed NmF2 presented a significant negative phase on September 25, and a G condition (hmF2<200km) was also observed. The model results based on the standard input parameters (climatological model values) are in good agreement with the observed electron densities under quiet conditions, but there are large discrepancies during disturbed periods. The exospheric temperature Tex, neutral winds, atomic oxygen density [O] and molecular nitrogen density [N2], and solar flux are inferred from the ISR ion temperature profiles and from the electron density profiles. Our calculated results show that the maximum Tex is higher than 1700K, and an averaged decrease in [O] is a factor of 2.2 and an increase in [N2] at 300km is about 1.8 times for the disturbed day, September 25, relative to the quiet day level. Therefore, the large change of [N2]/[O] ratio gives a good explanation for the negative phase at Millstone Hill during this storm. Furthermore, at the disturbed nighttime the observations show a strong NmF2 decrease, accompanied by a significant hmF2 increase after the sudden storm commencement (SSC). Simulations are carried out based on the inferred Tex. It is found that the uplift of F2 layer during the period from sunset to post-midnight is mainly associated with the large equatorward winds, and a second rise in hmF2 after midnight results from the depleted Ne in the bottom-side of F2 layer due to the increased recombination, while the ``midnight collapse'' of hmF2 is attributed to the large-scale traveling atmospheric disturbances.

How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

Trace fossils from storm-influenced, oxygen-deficient outer shelf: lower Mississippian Price Formation of southern West Virginia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bjerstedt, T.W.

The Price Formation in southern West Virginia was deposited dominantly in an oxygen-deficient, outer shelf environment along a siliciclastic profile from the basin plain to the alluvial plain. An overturned section at Bluefield, West Virginia, exposes the following lithofacies and environments in ascending order: laminated black silt-shales from the basin plain; a sand-rich submarine fan; outer shelf tempestites of hummocky, cross-stratified fine sandstone and completely bioturbated grayish-black, silt-shales; and shoreline sands in transition to thin, dirty coals of the coastal plain and Maccrady red beds of the alluvial plain. Trace fossils are abundant and are best preserved on the solesmore » of hummocky, cross-stratified sandstones. The Zoophycos ichnofacies occurs throughout 80 m of outer shelf deposits, which accumulated above storm wave base. The Zoophycos ichnofacies grades into the nearshore Skolithus ichnofacies with no apparent intervening Cruziana ichnofacies. Most ichnotaxa identified from the outer shelf are fodinichnia or pascichnia. Planar and helical Zoophycos, Helminthopsis, Helminthoida, Sclarituba (neonereites form), and Chondrites are characteristics. In most schemes, the Zoophycos ichnofacies occurs below storm wave base. At Bluefield, it has displaced the Cruziana ichnofacies above storm wave base due to the maintenance of a dysaerobic environment. The abundant organic matter preserved in a density-stratified water column was continually replenished during periods of upwelling. Conditions were extremely favorable for deposit feeders, but inhibiting to suspension feeders that were less tolerant of oxygen stress. The absence of distributary channel sands in the vertical sequence also indicates that offshore environments received no influx of oxygenated waters from the Price delta.« less

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2016-04-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic way while accounting for non-stationarity due to climate variability and change can help decision makers and planners to implement improved monitoring and adaptation strategies for long-term sustainability of the coastline and barrier islands.

The responses of artificial embayed beaches to storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojeda, E.; Guillén, J.; Ribas, F.

2009-09-01

The plan-view and the profile shape of sandy beaches largely depend on the incoming wave-energy (Wright and Short, 1984). In this sense, storm events are responsible for major changes in the configuration of sandy beaches and the cumulative effect of storms and fair-weather conditions determines the morphodynamic state of a certain beach. With increasing wave energy, the beach will change from the Reflective state to the Low Tide Terrace, Transverse Bar and Rip, Rhythmic Bar and Beach, Longshore Bar and Trough and finally to the Dissipative beach state. These morphodynamic states are also observed at artificial embayed beaches, although artificial groins limit alongshore sediment transport and protect sections of the beach from waves approaching from a range of directions (Short and Masselink, 1999). This contribution focuses on the morphological changes of the shoreline and the submerged sandbars of artificial embayed (sandy) beaches due to the effect of high-wave conditions associated to storms. We characterize the morphological response of the emerged and submerged beach profile of two of the artificial embayed beaches of the Barcelona city coast (NW Mediterranean). The two embayed beaches under study are single-barred beaches subject to the same climatic conditions but with different morphological characteristics. The study comprises more than 4 years of data, from November 2001 to March 2006, obtained through an Argus video system (Holman and Stanley, 2007). The extraction of the shoreline and barline locations is accomplished using 10-minute time-exposure video images. Shorelines were extracted directly from oblique images (see Ojeda and Guillén, [2008] for a complete description) and rectified afterwards. Sandbars were inferred from the rectified time-exposure video images based on the preferential wave breaking over shallow areas, so they required a minimum significant wave height (Hs) which allowed the occurrence of a clear wave-breaking pattern. The barline extraction was accomplished through an automated alongshore tracking of the intensity maxima across each beach section (Van Enckevort and Ruessink, 2001). The mean Hs during the study period was 0.71 m and the averaged peak period was 5.7 s. The wave height time series shows a cyclic behaviour, with storm periods (October-April) separated by periods of low storm activity (May-October). The two most energetic periods affecting the beaches were from October 2001 to May 2002 and from October 2003 to April 2004 (wave data were obtained from a WANA node [virtual buoy] and direct measurements of the Barcelona-Coastal buoy). Approximately 25 storm events have been identified during the study period (following Ojeda and Guillén [2008], significant storms were defined as those with Hs higher than 2.5 m during the peak of the storm and a minimum duration of 12 h with Hs greater than 1.5 m). The morphological responses of the beach to the storm action determine the morphodynamic state. These responses were grouped into five categories: shoreline advance or retreat, beach rotation, sandbar migration, formation of megacusps, and changes in the sandbar configuration (linear or crescentic shape). The intensity and frequency of these modifications were different in both beaches. Regarding the changes in the morphodynamic state of the beaches, the bar at Bogatell switched more frequently among the four intermediate morphodynamic states during the study period than the bar at La Barceloneta. The bar at La Barceloneta only underwent the complete "reset" of the nearshore morphology (i.e., abrupt change of the plan-view shape of the beach towards a Longshore Bar and Trough state) once, associated with the high-energy wave event occurring on November 2001. At this beach, the strongest storm events produced the offshore migration of the bar and a certain decrease in the bar sinuosity, but did not generate an alongshore parallel bar. Similar storms caused different effects on the two adjacent beaches and, furthermore, the effect of storms of similar characteristics at the same beach, were also different. In the final paper, we will focus on these differential behaviours in an attempt to attain a certain predictability of the beach behaviour after a storm depending on the wave characteristics and the morphodynamic configuration of the beach prior to the storm. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This work was funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology within the project SEDMET (CTM2006-06919). The work of E. Ojeda and F. Ribas was partially supported by the Spanish government through the FPU and Juan de la Cierva programs, correspondingly. The authors would like to thank Dr. Gerben Ruessink for providing the BLIM software and Puertos del Estado for the wave data. REFERENCES Holman, R.A., Stanley, J., 2007. The history and technical capabilities of Argus. Coast. Eng. 54, 447-491. Ojeda, E., Guillén, J., 2008. Shoreline dynamics and beach rotation of artificial embayed beaches. Mar. Geol. 253, 51-62. Short, A.D., Masselink, G., 1999 Embayed and structurally controlled beaches, in: Short, A.D. (Ed.), Handbook of beach and shoreface morphodynamics. John Wiley & Son, Chichester, pp. 230-250. Van Enckevort, I.M.J., Ruessink, B.G., 2001. Effect of hydrodynamics and bathymetry on video estimates of nearshore sandbar position. J. Geophys. Res. 106, 16969-16979. Wright, L.D., Short, A.D., 1984. Morphodynamic variability of surf zones and beaches: a synthesis. Mar. Geol. 56, 93-118.

Non-Tidal Ocean Loading Correction for the Argentinean-German Geodetic Observatory Using an Empirical Model of Storm Surge for the Río de la Plata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreiro, F. A.; Wziontek, H.; Fiore, M. M. E.; D'Onofrio, E. E.; Brunini, C.

2018-05-01

The Argentinean-German Geodetic Observatory is located 13 km from the Río de la Plata, in an area that is frequently affected by storm surges that can vary the level of the river over ±3 m. Water-level information from seven tide gauge stations located in the Río de la Plata are used to calculate every hour an empirical model of water heights (tidal + non-tidal component) and an empirical model of storm surge (non-tidal component) for the period 01/2016-12/2016. Using the SPOTL software, the gravimetric response of the models and the tidal response are calculated, obtaining that for the observatory location, the range of the tidal component (3.6 nm/s2) is only 12% of the range of the non-tidal component (29.4 nm/s2). The gravimetric response of the storm surge model is subtracted from the superconducting gravimeter observations, after applying the traditional corrections, and a reduction of 7% of the RMS is obtained. The wavelet transform is applied to the same series, before and after the non-tidal correction, and a clear decrease in the spectral energy in the periods between 2 and 12 days is identify between the series. Using the same software East, North and Up displacements are calculated, and a range of 3, 2, and 11 mm is obtained, respectively. The residuals obtained after applying the non-tidal correction allow to clearly identify the influence of rain events in the superconducting gravimeter observations, indicating the need of the analysis of this, and others, hydrological and geophysical effects.

Modeling waves and circulation in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Signell, Richard P.; List, Jeffrey H.

1997-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is conducting a study of storm-driven sediment resuspension and transport in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana. Two critical processes related to sediment transport in the lake are (1) the resuspension of sediments due to wind-generated storm waves and (2) the movement of resuspended material by lake currents during storm wind events. The potential for sediment resuspension is being studied with the wave prediction model which simulates local generation of waves by wind and shallow-water effects on waves (refraction, shoaling, bottom friction, and breaking). Long-term wind measurements are then used to determine the regional "climate" of bottom orbital velocity (showing the spatial and temporal variability of wave-induced currents at the bottom). The circulation of the lake is being studied with a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. Results of the modeling effort indicate that remote forcing due to water levels in Mississippi Sound dominate the circulation near the passes in the eastern end of the lake, while local wind forcing dominates water movement in the western end. During typical storms with winds from the north-northeast or the south-southeast, currents along the south coast near New Orleans generally transport material westward, while material in the central region moves against the wind. When periods of sustained winds are followed by a drop in coastal sea level, a large amount of suspended sediment can be flushed from the lake.

Project Lifespan-based Nonstationary Hydrologic Design Methods for Changing Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, L.

2017-12-01

Under changing environment, we must associate design floods with the design life period of projects to ensure the hydrologic design is really relevant to the operation of the hydrologic projects, because the design value for a given exceedance probability over the project life period would be significantly different from that over other time periods of the same length due to the nonstationarity of probability distributions. Several hydrologic design methods that take the design life period of projects into account have been proposed in recent years, i.e. the expected number of exceedances (ENE), design life level (DLL), equivalent reliability (ER), and average design life level (ADLL). Among the four methods to be compared, both the ENE and ER methods are return period-based methods, while DLL and ADLL are risk/reliability- based methods which estimate design values for given probability values of risk or reliability. However, the four methods can be unified together under a general framework through a relationship transforming the so-called representative reliability (RRE) into the return period, i.e. m=1/1(1-RRE), in which we compute the return period m using the representative reliability RRE.The results of nonstationary design quantiles and associated confidence intervals calculated by ENE, ER and ADLL were very similar, since ENE or ER was a special case or had a similar expression form with respect to ADLL. In particular, the design quantiles calculated by ENE and ADLL were the same when return period was equal to the length of the design life. In addition, DLL can yield similar design values if the relationship between DLL and ER/ADLL return periods is considered. Furthermore, ENE, ER and ADLL had good adaptability to either an increasing or decreasing situation, yielding not too large or too small design quantiles. This is important for applications of nonstationary hydrologic design methods in actual practice because of the concern of choosing the emerging nonstationary methods versus the traditional stationary methods. There is still a long way to go for the conceptual transition from stationarity to nonstationarity in hydrologic design.

Event-based design tool for construction site erosion and sediment controls

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenouth, William R.; Gharabaghi, Bahram

2015-09-01

This paper provides additional discussion surrounding the novel event-based soil loss models developed by Trenouth and Gharabaghi (2015) for the design of erosion and sediment controls (ESCs) for various phases of construction - from pre-development to post-development conditions. The datasets for the study were obtained from three Ontario sites - Greensborough, Cookstown, and Alcona - in addition to datasets mined from the literature for three additional sites - Treynor, Iowa, Coshocton, Ohio and Cordoba, Spain. Model performances were evaluated for each of the study sites, and quantified using commonly-reported statistics. This work is nested within a broader conceptual framework, which includes the estimation of ambient receiving water quality, the prediction of event mean runoff quality for a given design storm, and the calculation of the required level of protection using adequate ESCs to meet receiving water quality guidelines. These models allow design engineers and regulatory agencies to assess the potential risk of ecological damage to receiving waters due to inadequate soil erosion and sediment control practices using dynamic scenario forecasting when considering rapidly changing land use conditions during various phases of construction, typically for a 2- or 5-year design storm return period.

Return to Play After Forearm and Hand Injuries in the National Basketball Association

PubMed Central

Morse, Kyle W.; Hearns, Krystle A.; Carlson, Michelle Gerwin

2017-01-01

Background: Hand injuries can result in significant time away from competition for professional basketball players. Time to return to play after hand injuries in elite athletes has not been well described. Purpose: To report the return to play from metacarpal fractures, phalangeal fractures, and thumb ligament tears in National Basketball Association (NBA) players over a 5-year period. Study Design: Descriptive epidemiology study. Methods: The NBA transaction report was analyzed from January 2009 to May 2014. Players were identified if they were added to the inactive list (IL), missed games due to their injury, or underwent surgery as a result of hand injury. Number of games missed due to injury, days spent on the IL, and age at injury were calculated by injury type and location. Results: One hundred thirty-seven injuries were identified: 39 injuries to the hand and 98 injuries to the finger. Three major injury patterns were identified and analyzed: metacarpal fractures (n = 26), phalangeal fractures (n = 33), and thumb ligament tears (n = 9). The type of injury sustained affected return to play (P < .05). All thumb ligament tears required surgery and had the longest return to play of 67.5 ± 17.7 days (P < .05). The return to play for surgically treated metacarpal fractures (56.7 ± 26.3 days) was significantly greater than nonsurgically treated metacarpal fractures (26.3 ± 12.1 days; P < .01). Return to play for surgically repaired phalangeal fractures (46.2 ± 10.8 days) trended greater but was not significantly different than phalangeal fractures treated nonsurgically (33.3 ± 28.5 days; P = .21). Conclusion: Hand injuries in professional basketball players can lead to prolonged periods of time away from competition, especially after surgery. This study provides guidelines on expected return to play in the NBA after these common hand injuries. PMID:28251168

Return to Play After Forearm and Hand Injuries in the National Basketball Association.

PubMed

Morse, Kyle W; Hearns, Krystle A; Carlson, Michelle Gerwin

2017-02-01

Hand injuries can result in significant time away from competition for professional basketball players. Time to return to play after hand injuries in elite athletes has not been well described. To report the return to play from metacarpal fractures, phalangeal fractures, and thumb ligament tears in National Basketball Association (NBA) players over a 5-year period. Descriptive epidemiology study. The NBA transaction report was analyzed from January 2009 to May 2014. Players were identified if they were added to the inactive list (IL), missed games due to their injury, or underwent surgery as a result of hand injury. Number of games missed due to injury, days spent on the IL, and age at injury were calculated by injury type and location. One hundred thirty-seven injuries were identified: 39 injuries to the hand and 98 injuries to the finger. Three major injury patterns were identified and analyzed: metacarpal fractures (n = 26), phalangeal fractures (n = 33), and thumb ligament tears (n = 9). The type of injury sustained affected return to play ( P < .05). All thumb ligament tears required surgery and had the longest return to play of 67.5 ± 17.7 days ( P < .05). The return to play for surgically treated metacarpal fractures (56.7 ± 26.3 days) was significantly greater than nonsurgically treated metacarpal fractures (26.3 ± 12.1 days; P < .01). Return to play for surgically repaired phalangeal fractures (46.2 ± 10.8 days) trended greater but was not significantly different than phalangeal fractures treated nonsurgically (33.3 ± 28.5 days; P = .21). Hand injuries in professional basketball players can lead to prolonged periods of time away from competition, especially after surgery. This study provides guidelines on expected return to play in the NBA after these common hand injuries.

Marsh vertical accretion in a Southern California Estuary, U.S.A

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cahoon, D.R.; Lynch, J.C.; Powell, A.N.

1996-01-01

Vertical accretion was measured between October 1992 and March 1994 in low and high saltmarsh zones in the north arm of Tijuana estuary from feldspar market horizons and soil corings. Accretion in the Spartina foliosa low marsh (2-8.5 cm) was related almost entirely to episodic storm-induced river flows between January and March 1993, with daily tidal flooding contributing little or no sediment during the subsequent 12 month period of no river flow. Accretion in the Salicornia subterminalis high marsh was low (~1-2 mm) throughout the 17-month measuring period. High water levels in the salt marsh associated with the storm flows were enhanced in early January 1993 by the monthly extreme high sea level, when the low and high marshes were flooded about 0.5 m above normal high tide levels. Storm flows in January-March 1993 mobilized about 5 million tons of sediment, of which the low salt marsh trapped an estimated 31,941 tonnes, including 971 tonnes of carbon and 77 tonnes of nitrogen. Sediment trapping by the salt marsh during episodic winter floods plays an important role in the long-term maintenance of productivity of Tijuana estuary through nutrient retention and maintenance of marsh surface elevation. The potential exists, however, for predicted accelerated rates of sea-level rise to out-pace marsh surface elevation gain during extended periods of drought (i.e. low sediment inputs) which are not uncommon for this arid region.

Wildlife and habitat damage assessment from Hurricane Charley: recommendations for recovery of the J. N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge Complex. [Final report to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyers, J.M.; Langtimm, C.A.; Smith, T. J.; Pednault-Willett, K.

2005-01-01

On 13 August 2004, the first of four hurricanes to strike Florida in 50% and sometimes 90% of their vegetation severely damaged (dead, broken tree stems, and tipped trees). Shell Mound Trail of JNDDNWR sustained catastrophic damage to its old growth mangrove forests. Direct storm mortality and injury to manatees in the area was probably slight. Because seagrass beads and manatee habitat extend beyond refuge boundaries, we recommended a regional approach with partner agencies to more thoroughly assess storm impacts and monitor recovery of seagrass and manatees. Besides intensive monitoring of waterbirds and their nesting habitat (pre- and post-storm), we recommend that the Mangrove Cuckoo be used as an indicator species for recovery of mangrove forests and also for monitoring songbirds at risk. Black-whiskered Vireo may be another potential indicator species to monitor in mangrove forests. Damaged vegetation should be monitored for recovery (permanent or long-term plots), especially where previous study plots have been established and with additional plots in mangrove forests of waterbird nesting islands and freshwater wetlands. Potential loss of wetlands may be prevented by water level monitoring, locating the positions (GPS-GIS) and maintaining existing water control structures, creating a GIS map of refuge with accurate vertical data, and monitoring and eradicating invasive plants. Invasive species, including Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius) and air potato (Dioscorea bulbifora), were common in a very limited survey. As an important monitoring goal, we recommend that species presence-absence data analysis (with probability of detection) be used to determine changes in animal communities. This could be accomplished possibly with comparison to other storm-damaged and undamaged refuges in the Region. This information may be helpful to refuge managers when storms return in the future.

Regional climate change over South Korea projected by the HadGEM2-AO and WRF model chain under RCP emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, Joong-Bae; Im, Eun-Soon; Jo, Sera

2017-04-01

This study assesses the regional climate projection newly projected within the framework of the national downscaling project in South Korea. The fine-scale climate information (12.5 km) is produced by dynamical downscaling of the HadGEM2-AO global projections forced by the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenarios using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. Changes in temperature and precipitation in terms of long-term trends, daily characteristics and extremes are presented by comparing two 30 yr periods (2041-2070 vs. 2071-2100). The temperature increase presents a relevant trend, but the degree of warming varies in different periods and emission scenarios. While the temperature distribution from the RCP8.5 projection is continuously shifted toward warmer conditions by the end of the 21st century, the RCP4.5 projection appears to stabilize warming in accordance with emission forcing. This shift in distribution directly affects the magnitude of extremes, which enhances extreme hot days but reduces extreme cold days. Precipitation changes, however, do not respond monotonically to emission forcing, as they exhibit less sensitivity to different emission scenarios. An enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation are discernible, implying an intensified hydrologic cycle. Changes in return levels of annual maximum precipitation suggest an increased probability of extreme precipitation with 20 yr and 50 yr return periods. Acknowledgement : This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under grant KMIPA 2015-2081

[Circular migration in Indonesia].

PubMed

Mantra, I B

1979-12-01

The author examines circular migration in Indonesia, with primary focus on the 1970s. It is found that circular, or repeated return migration, generally occurs over short distances and for short periods and is more frequent than lifetime migration. The relationships between improvements in the national transport system, access to labor force opportunities in both the formal and informal sectors of the economy, and circular migration are discussed.

Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzini, E.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Kornblueh, L.

2018-05-01

The response of the northern winter atmospheric circulation for two consecutive global warming periods of 2 K is examined in a grand ensemble (68 members) of idealized CO2 increase experiments performed with the same climate model. The comparison of the atmospheric responses for the two periods shows remarkable differences, indicating the nonlinearity of the response. The nonlinear signature of the atmospheric and surface responses is reminiscent of the positive phase of the annular mode of variability. The stratospheric vortex response shifts from an easterly wind change for the first 2 K to a westerly wind change for the second 2 K. The North Atlantic storm track shifts poleward only in the second period. A weaker November Arctic amplification during the second period suggests that differences in Arctic sea ice changes can act to trigger the atmospheric nonlinear response. Stratosphere-troposphere coupling thereafter can provide for the persistence of this nonlinearity throughout the winter.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years.

PubMed

Glur, Lukas; Wirth, Stefanie B; Büntgen, Ulf; Gilli, Adrian; Haug, Gerald H; Schär, Christoph; Beer, Jürg; Anselmetti, Flavio S

2013-09-26

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

A Process-Based Insight into the Severity of 'Super' Storm Desmond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Tom; Murphy, Conor; Gerard, McCarthy; Rob, Wilby

2017-04-01

Climate warming is projected to increase winter rainfall and societally-impactful flood frequency across the British-Irish Isles (BI). The dynamical explanation for this change is linked to the North Atlantic (NA) storm track, with projections indicating both an enhanced frequency of wintertime extratropical cyclones ('cyclones'), and an increase in their average precipitation. The latter is, in part, a result of more intense moisture transport in cyclones' warm sectors by 'Atmospheric Rivers' (ARs), thermodynamically-driven by enhanced absolute humidity consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. It is against this backdrop that we scrutinise the physical drivers of the record-breaking rain and flood event associated with 'Storm Desmond' in December, 2015. We find that more than 3,500 km2 experienced rainfall in excess of the mean annual maximum during the storm's passage. The exceptional rain amounts were due to an AR more intense than any other in our observational record (1979-2015). However, we find that its unparalleled strength was as much a consequence of strong wind speeds as high humidity, so its severity cannot be attributed so simply to climate warming. This position is made clearer through a Lagrangian air mass tracking procedure, where we show that most (67%) of the moisture that precipitated out over BI during Desmond's passage evaporated from sea surfaces that were cooler than their 1951-1980 average. We therefore conclude that 1) the process-based observational approach applied here can provide valuable insight into climate change attribution assessments; and 2) Storm Desmond - despite being the most severe on record - was perhaps moderated by the anomalously cool NA sea-surface temperatures, which may have suppressed evaporation and vapour transport. The capacity for an even more impactful AR should SSTs in the sub-polar NA return to even their 20th Century averages, given otherwise identical synoptic circulation, should therefore be appreciated by planners and policy makers alike.

Model Simulations of Waves in Hurricane Juan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, W.; Toulany, B.; Padilla-Hernandez, R.; Hu, Y.; Smith, P.; Zhang, W.; Zou, Q.; Ren, X.

2004-05-01

Hurricane Juan made landfall at 0300 UTC near Halifax Nova Scotia. This was a category 2 hurricane with winds of 44 m/s, the largest storm to pass over these coastal areas in several decades. Associated high ocean waves were experienced in coastal waters, from Peggy's Cove to Sheet Harbour, growing to epic proportions on the Scotian Shelf, and exceeding the 100-year return wave based on the present climatology. As part of the GoMOOS program (Gulf of Maine Ocean Observing System, www.gomoos.org), winds from the USA Navy COAMPS (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model Prediction System) were used to evaluate and compare three widely-used third generation numerical wave models, SWAN, WAM and WaveWatch-III (hereafter WW3) for accuracy, with in situ measurements. Model comparisons consist of a set of composite model systems, respectively nesting WAM, WW3 and SWAN in WAM and WW3. We report results from the intermediate-resolution grid for Hurricane Juan. Wave measurements were made using four operational deep-water buoys (C44258, C44142, C44137, 44005), by a conventional directional wave rider (DWR) moored offshore from Lunenburg Bay, and also by two acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) located (1) near an oil rig on Sable Island Bank, in relatively shallow water, and (2) near the outer boundary of Lunenburg Bay. We discuss the reliability of DWR wave data compared to ADCP wave data. We show that all models provide reliable hindcasts for significant wave height (Hs) and for peak period (Tp) for Juan, although a clear under-estimation of Hs at the peak of the storm is evident, compared to observations. A feature in the COAMPS storm simulation is that the storm track appears to be slightly to the east of that of Quikscat scatterometer data. Comparisons between models and 2-dimensional wave spectra are presented. Preliminary results suggest that the recently released upgrade to the WW3 model shows slightly enhanced skill compared to the other models.

A discussion of the links between solar variability and high-storm-surge events in Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriopedro, David; GarcíA-Herrera, Ricardo; Lionello, Piero; Pino, Cosimo

2010-07-01

This study explores the long-term frequency variability of high-surge events (HSEs) in the North Adriatic, the so-called acqua alta, which, particularly during autumn, cause flooding of the historical city center of Venice. The period 1948-2008, when hourly observations of sea level are available, is considered. The frequency of HSEs is correlated with the 11 year solar cycle, solar maxima being associated with a significant increase in the October-November-December HSE frequency. The seasonal geopotential height pattern at 1000 hPa (storm surge pattern; SSP) associated with the increased frequency of HSEs is identified for the whole time period and found to be similar to the positive phase of the main variability mode of the regional atmospheric circulation (empirical orthogonal function 1; EOF1). However, further analysis indicates that solar activity modulates the spatial patterns of the atmospheric circulation (EOF) and the favorable conditions for HSE occurrence (SSP). Under solar maxima, the occurrence of HSEs is enhanced by the main mode of regional atmospheric variability, namely, a large-scale wave train pattern that is symptomatic of storm track paths over northern Europe. Solar minima reveal a substantially different and less robust SSP, consisting of a meridionally oriented dipole with a preferred southward path of storm track activity, which is not associated with any dominant mode of atmospheric variability during low-solar periods. It is concluded that solar activity plays an indirect role in the frequency of HSEs by modulating the spatial patterns of the main modes of atmospheric regional variability, the favorable patterns for HSE occurrence, and their mutual relationships, so that constructive interaction between them is enhanced during solar maxima and inhibited in solar minima.

How to introduce climate change into extreme precipitation predetermination? First attempts to tamper with the MEWP method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gérardin, Maxime; Brigode, Pierre; Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy; Paquet, Emmanuel; Ribstein, Pierre

2013-04-01

The MEWP (Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern, Garavaglia et al. 2010) distribution is part of the operational method in use at EDF (Electricité de France) for computing dam spillways design floods, i.e. the magnitude of the flood that occurs at a given return period. The return periods of interest lie in the 100 - 10,000 years range. Relying on a purposely-designed classification of atmospheric circulations into weather patterns, and assigning a catchment-specific asymptotical coefficient to each of these patterns, the MEWP distribution provides the daily areal rainfall as a function of the return period. In its current state, the method relies on the implicit assumption of climate stationnarity. In this work we seek to introduce climate change into the MEWP framework. Since the MEWP distribution basically contains two sorts of parameters, namely frequencies of the weather patterns, and magnitudes of the events occurring within each of these patterns, we examine the plausible evolution of these two sets of parameters under climate change, and the sensitivity of the final result to these two sorts of changes. On the one hand, the future frequencies are assessed thanks to GCM outputs from CMIP5, and significant, albeit not greater than the internal variability, changes are observed. On the other hand, the future magnitudes can be suspected to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (e.g. Pall et al., 2007, and Lenderink et van Meijgaard, 2008). We assess the validity of this hypothesis on the observed daily areal precipitation series for more than a hundred catchments in France. The sensitivity analysis shows that, for the return periods at stake, the impact of frequency changes is small relative to that of magnitude changes, while this would not be true for smaller return periods. Therefore, we propose to incorporate climate change into the MEWP distribution in a simple but realistic way, by taking account of the magnitude change only. We conclude with some insights into the next steps that will allow a more sophisticated representation of climate change in the MEWP distribution. References: Garavaglia, F., J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. 2010. "Introducing a Rainfall Compound Distribution Model Based on Weather Patterns Sub-sampling." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14 (6): 951-964. doi:10.5194/hess-14-951-2010. Lenderink, Geert, and Erik van Meijgaard. 2008. "Increase in Hourly Precipitation Extremes Beyond Expectations from Temperature Changes." Nature Geoscience 1 (8) (July 20): 511-514. doi:10.1038/ngeo262. Pall, P., MR Allen, and DA Stone. 2007. "Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron Constraint on Changes in Extreme Precipitation Under CO 2 Warming." Climate Dynamics 28 (4): 351-363.

Dual-polarization characteristics of the radar ocean return in the presence of rain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meneghini, R.; Kumagai, H.; Kozu, T.

1992-01-01

Experimental data are presented on the polarimetric and dual-wavelength characteristics of the ocean surface in the presence of rain. To explain a portion of the variability observed in scatter plots under rain conditions, a storm model is used that incorporates measured drop size distributions. The fairly large variability indicates that effects of drop size distribution and the presence of partially melted particles can introduce a significant error in the estimate of attenuation. This effect is especially significant in the case of a 10-GHz radar under high rain rates. A surface reference method at this frequency will tend to overestimate the rain attenuation unless melting layer attenuation is properly taken into account. Observations of the cross-polarization return in stratiform rain over an ocean surface show three distinct components. Two of these correspond to aspherical, nonaligned particles in the melting layer seen in the direct and mirror-image returns. The remaining part depends both on the off-nadir depolarization by the surface and on the rain medium. A possible mechanism for this latter effect is the bistatic scattering from the rain to the surface.

Introducing stochastics into the simulation of convective precipitation events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pistotnik, Georg

2010-05-01

In a joint project, the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) and the Vienna University of Technology aimed to characterize strong precipitation events and their impact in the Bucklige Welt region in Eastern Austria. Both the region's hydrological and meteorological characteristics, namely its composition of virtually countless small catchments with short response times and a high frequency of summertime convective storms, cause the occurrence of flooding to be strictly tied to convective rainfall events, which is why this study has been focused on this type of precipitation. The meteorological database consists of the ZAMG's high-resolution analysis and nowcasting system INCA ("Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis"), which provides a set of precipitation analyses generated by a statistically optimized combination of rain gauge measurements and radar data with a temporal resolution of 15 minutes and a spatial resolution of 1 kilometre. An intensity threshold of 3.8mm/15min has been used to classify any observed precipitation as a convective one, thus extracting 245 convection days with a total number of almost 1600 individual storm events over the project region out of the 5-year data set from 2003 to 2007. Consecutive analyses were used to compute the motion of these storms, a complex process that could not be completely automatized; due to the repeated occurrence of storm splits or coalescences, a manual control of the automatically provided "suggestion" of movement had to be performed in order to merge two or more precipitation maxima to a single storm if necessary, thus yielding the smoothest and most plausible storm tracks and ensuring a high quality of the database. In the first part of the project, distributions for all characteristic parameters have been derived, including the number of storms per day, their place and time of initiation, their motion, lifetime, maximum intensity and maximum "cell volume" (i.e. overall precipitation per time step). Both components of the mean motion as well as of its deviations could be approximated by normal distributions, whereas the number of storms per day, their lifetime, maximum intensity and maximum cell volume roughly followed exponential distributions. The shapes of the convective cells were approximated by Gaussian bells with the peak intensity and the cell volume as boundary conditions. The temporal courses of the peak intensities and cell volumes were assumed to follow parabolas which are symmetric with respect to the half of the lifetime. In the second part of the project, these distributions were used to drive a random generator that allows simulating an arbitrary number of convection days in order to obtain pseudo time series of convective precipitation for each grid point. An algorithm to create correlated samples of random numbers enabled to also account for the observed correlation between some of the parameters, i.e. lifetime and maximum intensity or maximum cell volume. The spatial structures of the return periods of simulated convective precipitation events may provide valuable additional information when being assimilated to the time series measured by the (unfortunately rather sparse) rain gauges in this region. Thus, further studies have to investigate to what extent the "convection simulator" is able to reproduce these time series. Some iterative fine-tuning of the parameters' distributions as well as an extension of the database to a longer time span may further improve the results and enable to simulate realistic spatio-temporal convection scenarios ("design storms") that have the potential to feed hydrological models and, together with vegetation and soil characteristics, hopefully enable to better assess and regionalize the torrent hazard over the project region.

Site fidelity of the declining amphibian Rana sierrae (Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog)

Treesearch

Kathleen Matthews; Haiganoush Preisler

2010-01-01

From 1997 to 2006, we used mark–recapture models to estimate the site fidelity of 1250 Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frogs (Rana sierrae) in Kings Canyon National Park, California, USA, during their three main activity periods of overwintering, breeding, and feeding. To quantify site fidelity, the tendency to return to and reuse previously occupied...

Drought, flood and rainfall analysis under climate change in Crete, Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapoglou, Evdokia; Vozinaki, Anthi-Eirini; Tsanis, Ioannis; Nerantzaki, Sofia; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

In this study an analysis on the drought frequency and magnitude under climate change in Crete, Greece is performed. The analysis was performed for the time period from 1983-2100, divided into three sub-periods (1983-1999, 2000-2049 and 2050-2099) for inter-comparison. Two climate models were studied MPI-ESM-LR-r1-CSC-REMO and EC-EARTH-r12-SMHI-RCA4, following three possible representative concentration pathways (+2.6, +4.5 and +8.5 W/m2). In order to perform the analysis the results of a SWAT simulation which covered the entity of Crete using 352 subbasins, was used. Drought events are recognized by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to identify the meteorological drought events and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for hydrological droughts. SPI and SRI drought indices, were used in order to identify the number of drought events for each climate model and scenario. In all cases, an increase in both severity and number of drought events was calculated for the future periods, compared to the baseline period 1983-1999. This increase was smaller for the +2.6 W/m2 scenario and largest for the +8.5 W/m2. The magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated for the subbasins of Crete and the most vulnerable were identified, both in terms of severity and the change throughout the years in index magnitude. Next a flood frequency analysis was performed for the entity of Crete Island in order to calculate the magnitude of events with 10 and 100 years return period. In order to perform the flood frequency analysis, the results of the SWAT simulation in terms of runoff in each subbasin are used. By calculating the magnitude of flood events with 10 and 100 years return period and the change in the magnitude throughout the time periods the most vulnerable subbasins are identified. The same frequency analysis was performed for the precipitation at each subbasin, and the magnitude of extreme precipitation events with 10 and 100 years return period was calculated. In this case the most significant changes appeared in Chania prefecture, having a 25-50% increase in extreme precipitation magnitude for the 10 years and the 100 years return period until the end of the third study period. Drought and flood frequency analysis can be proved a valuable tool in water management and infrastructure projects planning providing an integrated analysis for extreme event magnitude anticipation in Crete. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the Project "Innovative solutions to climate change adaptation and governance in the water management of the Region of Crete - AQUAMAN" funded within the framework of the EEA Financial Mechanism 2009-2014.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Leveraging Twitter to gauge evacuation compliance: Spatiotemporal analysis of Hurricane Matthew.

PubMed

Martín, Yago; Li, Zhenlong; Cutter, Susan L

2017-01-01

Hurricane Matthew was the deadliest Atlantic storm since Katrina in 2005 and prompted one of the largest recent hurricane evacuations along the Southeastern coast of the United States. The storm and its projected landfall triggered a massive social media reaction. Using Twitter data, this paper examines the spatiotemporal variability in social media response and develops a novel approach to leverage geotagged tweets to assess the evacuation responses of residents. The approach involves the retrieval of tweets from the Twitter Stream, the creation and filtering of different datasets, and the statistical and spatial processing and treatment to extract, plot and map the results. As expected, peak Twitter response was reached during the pre-impact and preparedness phase, and decreased abruptly after the passage of the storm. A comparison between two time periods-pre-evacuation (October 2th-4th) and post-evacuation (October 7th-9th)-indicates that 54% of Twitter users moved away from the coast to a safer location, with observed differences by state on the timing of the evacuation. A specific sub-state analysis of South Carolina illustrated overall compliance with evacuation orders and detailed information on the timing of departure from the coast as well as the destination location. These findings advance the use of big data and citizen-as-sensor approaches for public safety issues, providing an effective and near real-time alternative for measuring compliance with evacuation orders.

[Effect of antecedent dry period on water quality of urban storm runoff pollution].

PubMed

Bian, Bo

2009-12-01

Identified the main factor influencing urban rainfall-runoff pollution provides a scientific basis for urban rainfall-runoff pollution control and management. Therefore, starting in May 2006, a study was conducted to characterize water quality from representative land uses types in Zhenjiang to analyse the effect of antecedent dry period on stormwater runoff quality. The results show that the beginning of rainfall, with the increase of antecedent dry periods, the percentages of less than 40 microm is increased, the correlation of the water quality parameters (TN, TP, Zn, Pb, Cu, TSS and COD) and antecedent dry period shows a significant positive correlation, dissolved pollutants in the initial period surface runoff is increased. These findings show that facilitating the recognition of antecedent dry periods is the main factor influencing the change in concentration and partitioning of pollutants to provide the scientific basis for non-point source pollution control and management.

Sanitary quality of the Jordan River in Salt Lake County, Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, K.R.

1984-01-01

This investigation of the sanitary quality of the Jordan River was conducted from July 1980 to October 1982 using indicator bacteria rather than specific pathogens. A serious sanitary problem was identified. Concentrations of total coliform bacteria often exceeded 5,000 colonies per 100 milliliters and concentrations of fecal coliform bacteria often exceeded 2,000 colonies per 100 milliliters in the lower reaches of the river. At times these levels were greatly exceeded. The most conspicuous aspect of the bacteriological data is its extreme variability. Seven waste-water treatment plants, seven major tributaries, numerous storm conduits, irrigation-return flow, and other sources all contribute to the dynamic system that determines the sanitary quality of the river. Because of this variability the sanitary quality of the river cannot be predicted at any one time. In general, concentrations of all three indicator bacteria increased in a downstream direction. Storm runoff from urban areas contributed large concentrations of indicator bacteria to the river. Regression analysis of 9 years of data collected at 1700 South Street showed a significant positive correlation between both fecal coliform and fecal streptococcal concentrations versus time. Concentrations of fecal coliform and fecal streptococci have both been increasing since 1974 at 1700 South Street. (USGS)

Hydrologic controls on the export dynamics of dissolved and particulate phosphorus in a lowland, headwater agricultural catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dupas, Rémi; Grimaldi, Catherine; Gruau, Gérard; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal

2014-05-01

Phosphorus (P) availability controls eutrophication in freshwater ecosystems, since P is generally the limiting nutrient to algal development. The contribution of diffuse P emission to surface waters is significant in intensively livestock farmed catchments as a result of high application rates of P-rich animal waste and subsequent enrichment of soils. This study investigates the transport dynamics of particulate phosphorus (PP), suspended sediments (SS), and dissolved phosphorus (DP) with the aim of elucidating the relationship between PP and DP transport mechanisms and water dynamics in lowland, headwater catchments. The selected catchment (Kervidy-Naizin catchment, France) is particularly suitable for this purpose as it benefits of a 5 years, high-frequency monitoring of PP and DP concentrations at its outlet, including data recovered both during base flow and storm periods, with the monitoring of more than 50 storm flow events. The data analysis includes interpretation of concentration-discharge relationships at the annual time scale and on an event basis, seasonal analysis of flood characteristics and empirical modeling. Annual DP and PP concentration-discharge relationships of interflood samples display a hysteretic pattern, with higher concentrations during the autumn and spring periods, and progressive decrease during winter. No hysteretic pattern is visible for interflood SS concentration, which follows a classical C=a*Qb relationship. During floods, the dynamic of PP export is similar to that of SS during most of the events: the concentration peak occurs during the rising limb of the hydrogram (clockwise hysteresis), suggesting a source close to or within the stream. The amplitude and the hysteresis' loop size for SS and PP are a function of maximum discharge and rate of change in discharge. On the contrary, there is a strong decoupling between DP and SS (and thus PP) during most of the floods (no significant correlation), with DP concentration peaks occurring several hours after discharge (anticlockwise hysteresis). The dynamic of DP export appears in phase with the water table fluctuations measured at the bottom of the slope domains of the catchment. However, maximum DP concentrations during flood tend to be low during extended periods of soil water saturation, even though these periods corresponded to periods of high flow in the streams. These results show that the hydraulic energy of the stream controls SS and PP dynamics during floods, whilst DP dynamic is influenced by water table fluctuation. Empirical SS/PP/DP models were built considering these findings. Further investigation is currently being made to test how water table fluctuation and redox conditions could affect P availability in soils.

Mesoscale Coastal Behavior of a Deltaic Barrier Island: Storm-Driven Evolution and Morphodynamic Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespremeanu-Stroe, Alfred; Zăinescu, Florin; Tătui, Florin; Preoteasa, Luminişa

2017-04-01

Barrier islands and spits are among the most dynamic and vulnerable coastal features. Sacalin formed at the southernmost Danube mouth (Sfântu Gheorghe arm), representing the youngest downdrift island/spit of the Sfântu Gheorghe deltaic lobe, which previously formed several similar downdrift barrier islands during its cyclic pattern of long-term development (1400 BP - present). In this study, we document a 120 yr record of coastal changes that occurred since the emergence of Sacalin Island (1897), following a major flood, occasioned by its development through constant elongation (towards south) and backwards migration. The barrier island/spit is frequently breached in the central part (narrow inlets) and it experiences episodes of large elongation and retreat rates (up to 300 m/year and 60 m/year). Using successive georeferenced maps, satellite images and field measurements, we derived several morphodynamic indices which were analysed in correspondence with the storm climate. The coastal storms temporal variability shows four active intervals (1962-1972, 1975-1977, 1995-1998, 2002-2004) with highly intensive erosional and accretional processes, and three calm periods (1989-1994, 1999-2001, 2005-2015), with a decrease of 40-70 % of the shoreline migration rates. On the other hand, the successive barrier configurations show a distinct evolutionary pattern of its central sector, controlled by the (subaerial) barrier widths. Thus, following an extraordinary high storm (or storm season), the narrower barrier sectors will benefit from a new generation of breach deposition and washover fans. They will further contribute to the reconfiguration of the barrier on a backward position, where it attains significantly larger widths (250-500 m for the subaerial part) which for a while will inhibit the new large overwash formation able to expand the barrier into the lagoon. After such a "widening episode", the time intervals of barrier backline stability (i.e. unaffected by overwash) are of 10-30 years, depending on the storm climate. Therefore, the multi-decadal transformations of the central Sacalin depend on the interplay between storm regime and barrier widths, which points to a major influence of the morphodynamic feedbacks in modulating the storm morphological impact and imposing a rhythmic evolution of the barrier, with the narrow sectors becoming wide and vice-versa. Nevertheless, large oscillations in storm regime may induce unusual barrier morphodynamics. It was the case of the last calm interval (2005-2015), in fact an exceptional negative anomaly, when the storm frequency decreased to half of the multi-decadal average. As a consequence, the formation of washover fans was inhibited and restricted to only a few small-size fans, contributing to the unprecedented central barrier narrowing. In these conditions, during 2012-2013 winter, an atypical southern storm (December 2012), very short but intense, produced a high storm surge which caused massive overtopping in the central part of the spit, favoured by the small width of the island in this sector, creating an exceptional large breach (of ca. 2 km). In the next two months, even low storms enlarged the breach, transforming it into the biggest breaching (3.5 km wide) ever recorded in more than 100 yr of Sacalin evolution. This case documents how a prolonged low storminess interval may trigger barrier island destabilisation or even destruction.

Development of a Seasonal Extratropical Cyclone Activity Outlook for the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaskan Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shippee, N. J.; Atkinson, D. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Partain, J.; Gottschalck, J.; Marra, J. J.

2013-12-01

Storm activity (i.e. 'storminess') and associated forecasting skill in the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska is relatively well understood on a daily to weekly scale, however, two important elements are missing from current capacity. First, there is no way to predict storm activity at the monthly to seasonal time frame. Second, storm activity is characterized in terms that best serve weather specialists, and which are often not very informative for different sectors of the public. Increasing the utility of forecasts for end users requires consultation with these groups, and can include expressing storm activity in terms of, for example, strong-wind return intervals or ship hull strength. These types of forecasts can provide valuable information for use in community planning, resource allocation, or potential risk assessment. A preliminary study of seasonal storminess predictability in the North Pacific and Alaska regions has shown that a key factor related to the annual variation of seasonal storminess is the strength of the Aleutian Low as measured using indices such as the North Pacific Index (NPI) or Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI). Use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify patterns in storminess variability indicates that the primary mode of annual variation is found to be best explained by the variation in the strength of the Aleutian Low. NPI and the first component of storm activity for the entire region are found to be are highly correlated (R = 0.83). This result is supported by the works of others such as Rodionov et al. (2007), who note the impact of the strength of the Aleutian Low on storm track and speed. Additionally, the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along with NPI, have been shown to be highly correlated with annual variance in the seasonal storminess for the North Pacific and Alaska. Additional skill has been identified when the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is explicitly considered along with that of the NPI. For example, where the December through March NPI anomaly is negative, indicating a strong Aleutian Low, and PDO anomaly is positive, storminess is increased in the Aleutians and the Bering Sea and storms more rapidly exit the Gulf of Alaska. In similar fashion, when the phases of the NPI and PDO anomaly are switched, the storminess increases into the Gulf of Alaska with slower moving storms and longer residence time in the Gulf of Alaska. Methods used to develop the seasonal outlooks and the overall results of the will be overviewed in this presentation.

Adverse Respiratory Symptoms and Environmental Exposures Among Children and Adolescents Following Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Rath, Barbara; Young, Elizabeth A.; Harris, Amy; Perrin, Keith; Bronfin, Daniel R.; Ratard, Raoult; VanDyke, Russell; Goldshore, Matthew; Magnus, Manya

2011-01-01

Objectives Children and adolescents are especially vulnerable to environmental exposures and their respiratory effects. Following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, residents experienced multiple adverse environmental exposures. We characterized the association between upper respiratory symptoms (URS) and lower respiratory symptoms (LRS) and environmental exposures among children and adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional study following the return of the population to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina (October 2005 and February 2006) among a convenience sample of children and adolescents attending New Orleans health facilities. We used uni-, bi-, and multivariable analyses to describe participants, exposures, and associations with URS/LRS. Results Of 1,243 participants, 47% were Caucasian, 50% were male, and 72% were younger than 11 years of age. Multiple environmental exposures were identified during and after the storm and at current residences: roof/glass/storm damage (50%), outside mold (22%), dust (18%), and flood damage (15%). Self-reported URS and LRS (76% and 36%, respectively) were higher after the hurricane than before the hurricane (22% and 9%, respectively, p<0.0001). Roof/glass/storm damage at home was associated with URS (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.15, 2.21) and LRS (AOR=1.35, 95% CI 1.01, 1.80), while mold growth at home was associated with LRS (AOR=1.47, 95% CI 1.02, 2.12). Conclusions Children and adolescents affected by Hurricane Katrina experienced environmental exposures associated with increased prevalence of reported URS and LRS. Additional research is needed to investigate the long-term health impacts of Hurricane Katrina. PMID:22043101

Application of short-data methods on extreme surge levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.

2014-12-01

Tropical cyclone-induced storm surges are among the most destructive natural hazards that impact the United States. Unfortunately for academic research, the available time series for extreme surge analysis are very short. The limited data introduces uncertainty and affects the accuracy of statistical analyses of extreme surge levels. This study deals with techniques applicable to data sets less than 20 years, including simulation modelling and methods based on the parameters of the parent distribution. The verified water levels from water gauges spread along the Southwest and Southeast Florida Coast, as well as the Florida Keys, are used in this study. Methods to calculate extreme storm surges are described and reviewed, including 'classical' methods based on the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), and approaches designed specifically to deal with short data sets. Incorporating global-warming influence, the statistical analysis reveals enhanced extreme surge magnitudes and frequencies during warm years, while reduced levels of extreme surge activity are observed in the same study domain during cold years. Furthermore, a non-stationary GEV distribution is applied to predict the extreme surge levels with warming sea surface temperatures. The non-stationary GEV distribution indicates that with 1 Celsius degree warming in sea surface temperature from the baseline climate, the 100-year return surge level in Southwest and Southeast Florida will increase by up to 40 centimeters. The considered statistical approaches for extreme surge estimation based on short data sets will be valuable to coastal stakeholders, including urban planners, emergency managers, and the hurricane and storm surge forecasting and warning system.

The effect of alternative seismotectonic models on PSHA results - a sensitivity study for two sites in Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Avital, Matan; Kamai, Ronnie; Davis, Michael; Dor, Ory

2018-02-01

We present a full probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) sensitivity analysis for two sites in southern Israel - one in the near field of a major fault system and one farther away. The PSHA analysis is conducted for alternative source representations, using alternative model parameters for the main seismic sources, such as slip rate and Mmax, among others. The analysis also considers the effect of the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) on the hazard results. In this way, the two types of epistemic uncertainty - modelling uncertainty and parametric uncertainty - are treated and addressed. We quantify the uncertainty propagation by testing its influence on the final calculated hazard, such that the controlling knowledge gaps are identified and can be treated in future studies. We find that current practice in Israel, as represented by the current version of the building code, grossly underestimates the hazard, by approximately 40 % in short return periods (e.g. 10 % in 50 years) and by as much as 150 % in long return periods (e.g. 10E-5). The analysis shows that this underestimation is most probably due to a combination of factors, including source definitions as well as the GMPE used for analysis.

Spatial variability of extreme rainfall at radar subpixel scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peleg, Nadav; Marra, Francesco; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2018-01-01

Extreme rainfall is quantified in engineering practice using Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves (IDF) that are traditionally derived from rain-gauges and more recently also from remote sensing instruments, such as weather radars. These instruments measure rainfall at different spatial scales: rain-gauge samples rainfall at the point scale while weather radar averages precipitation on a relatively large area, generally around 1 km2. As such, a radar derived IDF curve is representative of the mean areal rainfall over a given radar pixel and neglects the within-pixel rainfall variability. In this study, we quantify subpixel variability of extreme rainfall by using a novel space-time rainfall generator (STREAP model) that downscales in space the rainfall within a given radar pixel. The study was conducted using a unique radar data record (23 years) and a very dense rain-gauge network in the Eastern Mediterranean area (northern Israel). Radar-IDF curves, together with an ensemble of point-based IDF curves representing the radar subpixel extreme rainfall variability, were developed fitting Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions to annual rainfall maxima. It was found that the mean areal extreme rainfall derived from the radar underestimate most of the extreme values computed for point locations within the radar pixel (on average, ∼70%). The subpixel variability of rainfall extreme was found to increase with longer return periods and shorter durations (e.g. from a maximum variability of 10% for a return period of 2 years and a duration of 4 h to 30% for 50 years return period and 20 min duration). For the longer return periods, a considerable enhancement of extreme rainfall variability was found when stochastic (natural) climate variability was taken into account. Bounding the range of the subpixel extreme rainfall derived from radar-IDF can be of major importance for different applications that require very local estimates of rainfall extremes.

Prediction and observation of munitions burial in energetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klammler, Harald; Sheremet, Alexandru; Calantoni, Joseph

2017-04-01

The fate of munitions or unexploded ordnance (UXO) resting on a submarine sediment bed is a critical safety concern. Munitions may be transported in uncontrolled ways to create potentially dangerous situations at places like beaches or ports. Alternatively, they may remain in place or completely disappear for significant but unknown periods, after becoming buried in the sediment bed. Clearly, burial of munitions drastically complicates the detection and removal of potential threats. Here, we present field data of wave height and (surrogate) munitions burial depths near the 8-m isobath at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility, Duck, North Carolina, observed between January and March 2015. The experiment captured a remarkable sequence of storms that included at least 10 events, of which 6 were characterized by wave fields of significant heights exceeding 2 m and with peak periods of approximately 10 s. During the strongest storm, waves of 14 s period and heights exceeding 2 m were recorded for more than 3 days; significant wave height reached 5 m at the peak of activity. At the end of the experiment, divers measured munition burial depths of up to 60 cm below the seabed level. However, the local bathymetry showed less than 5 cm variation between the before and after-storm states, suggesting the local net sediment accumulation / loss was negligible. The lack of bathymetric variability excludes the possibility of burial by a migrating bed form or by sediment deposition, and strongly indicates that the munitions sank into the bed. The depth of burial also suggest an extreme state of sand agitation during the storm. For predicting munitions burial depths, we explore existing analytical solutions for the dynamic interaction between waves and sediment. Measured time series of wave pressure near the sediment bed were converted into wave-induced changes in pore pressures and the effective stress states of the sediment. Different sediment failure criteria based on minimum normal and maximum shear stresses are then applied to evaluate the appropriateness of individual failure criteria to predict observed burial depths. Results are subjected to a sensitivity analysis with respect to uncertain sediment parameters and summarized by representing cumulative failure times as a function of depth.

Large-Scale Structure and Dynamics of the Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, J. B. H.; Nishitani, N.; Kunduri, B.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Sazykin, S. Y.

2017-12-01

The Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) is a narrow channel of high-speed westward ionospheric convection which appears equatorward of the duskside auroral oval during geomagnetically active periods. SAPS is generally thought to occur when the partial ring current intensifies and enhanced region-2 field-aligned currents (FACs) are forced to close across the low conductance region of the mid-latitude ionospheric trough. However, recent studies have suggested SAPS can also occur during non-storm periods, perhaps associated with substorm activity. In this study, we used measurements from mid-latitude SuperDARN radars to examine the large-scale structure and dynamics of SAPS during several geomagnetically active days. Linear correlation analysis applied across all events suggests intensifications of the partial ring current (ASYM-H index) and auroral activity (AL index) are both important driving influences for controlling the SAPS speed. Specifically, SAPS flows increase, on average, by 20-40 m/s per 10 nT of ASYM-H and 10-30 m/s per 100 nT of AL. These dependencies tend to be stronger during the storm recovery phase. There is also a strong local time dependence such that the strength of SAPS flows decrease by 70-80 m/s for each hour of local time moving from dusk to midnight. By contrast, the evidence for direct solar wind control of SAPS speed is much less consistent, with some storms showing strong correlations with the interplanetary electric field components and/or solar wind dynamic pressure, while others do not. These results are discussed in the context of recent simulation results from the Rice Convection Model (RCM).

Impact of a Single Unusually Large Rainfall Event on the Level of Risk Used for Infrastructure Design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhakal, N.; Jain, S.

2013-12-01

Rare and unusually large events (such as hurricanes and floods) can create unusual and interesting trends in statistics. Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is usually used to statistically describe extreme rainfall events. A number of the recent studies have shown that the frequency of extreme rainfall events has increased over the last century and as a result, there has been change in parameters of GEV distribution with the time (non-stationary). But what impact does a single unusually large rainfall event (e.g., hurricane Irene) have on the GEV parameters and consequently on the level of risks or the return periods used in designing the civil infrastructures? In other words, if such a large event occurs today, how will it influence the level of risks (estimated based on past rainfall records) for the civil infrastructures? To answer these questions, we performed sensitivity analysis of the distribution parameters of GEV as well as the return periods to unusually large outlier events. The long-term precipitation records over the period of 1981-2010 from 12 USHCN stations across the state of Maine were used for analysis. For most of the stations, addition of each outlier event caused an increase in the shape parameter with a huge decrease on the corresponding return period. This is a key consideration for time-varying engineering design. These isolated extreme weather events should simultaneously be considered with traditional statistical methodology related to extreme events while designing civil infrastructures (such as dams, bridges, and culverts). Such analysis is also useful in understanding the statistical uncertainty of projecting extreme events into future.

High resolution tree-ring based spatial reconstructions of snow avalanche activity in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pederson, Gregory T.; Reardon, Blase; Caruso, C.J.; Fagre, Daniel B.

2006-01-01

Effective design of avalanche hazard mitigation measures requires long-term records of natural avalanche frequency and extent. Such records are also vital for determining whether natural avalanche frequency and extent vary over time due to climatic or biophysical changes. Where historic records are lacking, an accepted substitute is a chronology developed from tree-ring responses to avalanche-induced damage. This study evaluates a method for using tree-ring chronologies to provide spatially explicit differentiations of avalanche frequency and temporally explicit records of avalanche extent that are often lacking. The study area - part of John F. Stevens Canyon on the southern border of Glacier National Park – is within a heavily used railroad and highway corridor with two dozen active avalanche paths. Using a spatially geo-referenced network of avalanche-damaged trees (n=109) from a single path, we reconstructed a 96-year tree-ring based chronology of avalanche extent and frequency. Comparison of the chronology with historic records revealed that trees recorded all known events as well as the same number of previously unidentified events. Kriging methods provided spatially explicit estimates of avalanche return periods. Estimated return periods for the entire avalanche path averaged 3.2 years. Within this path, return intervals ranged from ~2.3 yrs in the lower track, to ~9-11 yrs and ~12 to >25 yrs in the runout zone, where the railroad and highway are located. For avalanche professionals, engineers, and transportation managers this technique proves a powerful tool in landscape risk assessment and decision making.

Maps Showing Seismic Landslide Hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Michael, John A.

2009-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =~300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazard zones were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Maps showing seismic landslide hazards in Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.

2014-01-01

The devastating landslides that accompanied the great 1964 Alaska earthquake showed that seismically triggered landslides are one of the greatest geologic hazards in Anchorage. Maps quantifying seismic landslide hazards are therefore important for planning, zoning, and emergency-response preparation. The accompanying maps portray seismic landslide hazards for the following conditions: (1) deep, translational landslides, which occur only during great subduction-zone earthquakes that have return periods of =300-900 yr; (2) shallow landslides for a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.69 g, which has a return period of 2,475 yr, or a 2 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr; and (3) shallow landslides for a PGA of 0.43 g, which has a return period of 475 yr, or a 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 yr. Deep, translational landslide hazards were delineated based on previous studies of such landslides, with some modifications based on field observations of locations of deep landslides. Shallow-landslide hazards were delineated using a Newmark-type displacement analysis for the two probabilistic ground motions modeled.

Optimal regionalization of extreme value distributions for flood estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asadi, Peiman; Engelke, Sebastian; Davison, Anthony C.

2018-01-01

Regionalization methods have long been used to estimate high return levels of river discharges at ungauged locations on a river network. In these methods, discharge measurements from a homogeneous group of similar, gauged, stations are used to estimate high quantiles at a target location that has no observations. The similarity of this group to the ungauged location is measured in terms of a hydrological distance measuring differences in physical and meteorological catchment attributes. We develop a statistical method for estimation of high return levels based on regionalizing the parameters of a generalized extreme value distribution. The group of stations is chosen by optimizing over the attribute weights of the hydrological distance, ensuring similarity and in-group homogeneity. Our method is applied to discharge data from the Rhine basin in Switzerland, and its performance at ungauged locations is compared to that of other regionalization methods. For gauged locations we show how our approach improves the estimation uncertainty for long return periods by combining local measurements with those from the chosen group.

The Future of Drought in the Southeastern U.S.: Projections from downscaled CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keellings, D.; Engstrom, J.

2017-12-01

The Southeastern U.S. has been repeatedly impacted by severe droughts that have affected the environment and economy of the region. In this study the ability of 32 downscaled CMIP5 models, bias corrected using localized constructed analogs (LOCA), to simulate historical observations of dry spells from 1950-2005 are assessed using Perkins skill scores and significance tests. The models generally simulate the distribution of dry days well but there are significant differences between the ability of the best and worst performing models, particularly when it comes to the upper tail of the distribution. The best and worst performing models are then projected through 2099, using RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and estimates of 20 year return periods are compared. Only the higher skill models provide a good estimate of extreme dry spell lengths with simulations of 20 year return values within ± 5 days of observed values across the region. Projected return values differ by model grouping, but all models exhibit significant increases.

High-throughput sequencing analysis of the bacteria in the dust storm which passed over Canberra, Australia on 22-23 September 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munday, Chris; De Deckker, Patrick; Tapper, Nigel; Allison, Gwen

2014-05-01

Following a prolonged drought in Australia in the first decade of the 21st century, several dust storms affected the heavily populated East coast of Australia. The largest such storm occurred on 22-23 September 2009 and had a front of an estimated 3000km. A 24hr average PM10 concentration of over 2,000μg/m3 was recorded in several locations and an hourly peak of over 15,000μg/m3 was recorded (Leys et al. 2011). Over two time periods duplicate aerosol samples were collected on 47mm diameter cellulose nitrate membranes at a location removed from anthropogenic influences. One set of samples was collected in the afternoon the dust event started and another was collected overnight. Additionally, overnight rainfall was collected in a sterile bottle.DNA was directly extracted one membrane from each time point for molecular cloning and high throughput sequencing, while the other was cultivated on Tryptic Soy Agar (TSA). High throughput sequencing was performed using the 454 Titanium platform. From the three samples, 19,945 curated sequences were obtained representing 942 OTUS, with the three samples approximately equal in number. Unclassified Rhizobiales and Stenotrophomonas were the most abundant groups which could be attributed names. A total of 942 OTUs were identified (cutoff = 0.03), and despite the temporal relation of the samples, only eleven were found in all three samples, indicating that the dust storm evolved in composition as it passed over the region. Approximately 800 and 500 CFU/m3 were found in the two cultivated samples, tenfold more than was collected from previous dust events (Lim et al, 2011). Identification of cultivars revealed a dominance of the gram positive Firmicutes phylum, while the clone library showed a more even distribution of taxa, with Actinobacteria the most common and Firmicutes comprising less than 10% of sequences. Collectively, the analyses indicate that the concentration of cultivable organisms during the dust storm dramatically relative to calm conditions. A diverse and variable population of microorganisms were present reflecting the vast source and dynamic nature of the storm.

Brief Communication: Understanding disasters and early-warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaños, H.; Lomnitz, C.

2014-12-01

This paper discusses some methodological questions on understanding disasters. Destructive earthquakes continue to claim thousands of lives. Tsunamis may be caused by recoil of the upper plate. Darwin's twin-epicenter hypothesis is applied to a theory of tsunamis. The ergodicity hypothesis may help to estimate the return periods of extremely rare events. A social science outline on the causation of the Tôhoku nuclear disaster is provided.

Changing conditions on wilderness campsites: Seven case studies of trends over 13 to 32 years

Treesearch

David N. Cole

2013-01-01

This report brings together seven case studies of trends in the number and condition of wilderness campsites over periods ranging from 13 to 32 years. Case examples come from five mountainous wilderness areas in the western United States: Sequoia-Kings Canyon Wilderness in California, the Eagle Cap Wilderness in Oregon, the Frank Church-River of No Return Wilderness in...

Investigating future climate change impacts on drougt patterns over the Euro-Mediterranean area based on a probabilistic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonaccorso, Brunella; Peres, David Johnny; Cancelliere, Antonino

2017-04-01

As extensively documented by the IPCC assessment reports, impacts from recent climate-related extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones and wildfires, reveal significant vulnerability of many environmental and anthropic systems to climate change. Compared to other extreme weather events, droughts evolve slowly in time. Based on this feature, effective drought preparedness and mitigation strategies could be implemented by decision makers, if appropriate tools, able to anticipate drought evolution in time and space, were available. Climate models' projections combined with probabilistic tools for drought characterization could help in understanding the time evolution of drought hazard in the future. Within the delineated context, the aim of the present study is to investigate potential scenarios of space-time variability of drought occurrences over Europe, by comparing the return periods of design drought events for different future time intervals. More specifically, annual precipitation data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the Med-CORDEX initiative, covering the Euro-Mediterranean area (Northern Africa and Southern and Central Europe) at a grid resolution of about 50 km, are used to assess drought characteristics for three future periods (i.e. 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100), and compared to those in the baseline period (1971-2000). Specifically, three precipitation RCM datasets - produced by the CMMC (Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, IT), the LMD (Laboratorie del Météorologie Dynamique, FR) and the GUF (Goethe University Frankfurt, DE) - for two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 (intermediate) and RCP8.5 (high emissions), are considered for multi-year drought identification and characterization. First, the goodness of fit of several probability distributions to the considered precipitation gridded dataset is examined cell by cell by the Lilliefors test, and the best distribution is chosen for each cell based on the lowest value of the test statistic. Then, the marginal and multivariate probability distributions of drought characteristics (duration and accumulated deficit) are derived as functions of the parameters of the probability distribution of precipitation and the threshold level selected to identify droughts as negative runs. Finally, the return periods of design drought events are computed as the expected value of the interarrival time between consecutive critical droughts, and the possible spatial patterns are investigated. In general, results confirm an increasing occurrence of severe drought episodes in several regions of the investigated area in the future, although some discordances arise with respect to the different projections over the considered future periods. Apparently, Central Eastern regions of the Mediterranean are likely to become more drought prone, as low values of return periods are obtained.

Peculiarities of the ionospheric disturbances in the East-Asian region during geoactive periods on November 2004

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voeikov, S. V.; Zherebtsov, G. A.; Polekh, N. M.; Pirog, O. M.; Tatarinov, P. V.

In this study we present the results of investigations of variations of ionospheric parameters in the sector 20--80 r N 60--180 r E during intensive geomagnetic storm on November 7-11 2004 The data obtained at ionosonds and receivers of the global GPS network and receiver located on board of low-orbital satellite CHAMP are used for the analysis During this storm with two main phases the periods of total absorption and the blanketing Es layers typical for high- intensity geomagnetic storms are observed at high latitudes The prolonged negative disturbances are observed at the mid latitudes The large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance of the frontal type is registered after during postmeridian LT hours on November 8 An analysis of disturbance front form shows that it presents the fragment of circular disturbance propagated from the region of Chukotka This disturbance exists during several hours and reaches Ural in the west direction and the south region of China in the south direction The velocity of its moving decreases with propagation sim from 300 m c to 200m s The characteristic spatial size is about 2000 km A comparison of relative amplitudes of this large-scale disturbance according to the TEC Delta TEC TEC approx 70 and foF2 Delta N N approx 80 data suggests it to be extensive in altitude The similar disturbance of smaller intensity was observed on November 10 This work was supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research grant N grant 04-05-39008

Brief Communication: Understanding disasters and early-warning systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castaños, H.; Lomnitz, C.

2014-08-01

This paper discusses some methodological questions on understanding disasters. Destructive earthquakes continue to claim thousands of lives. Tsunamis may be caused by recoil of the upper plate. Darwin's twin-epicenter hypothesis is applied to a theory of tsunamis. The ergodicity hypothesis may help estimating the return periods of extremely rare events. A social science outline on the causation of the Tôhoku nuclear disaster is provided.

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

An Ionospheric Index Model based on Linear Regression and Neural Network Approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tshisaphungo, Mpho; McKinnell, Lee-Anne; Bosco Habarulema, John

2017-04-01

The ionosphere is well known to reflect radio wave signals in the high frequency (HF) band due to the present of electron and ions within the region. To optimise the use of long distance HF communications, it is important to understand the drivers of ionospheric storms and accurately predict the propagation conditions especially during disturbed days. This paper presents the development of an ionospheric storm-time index over the South African region for the application of HF communication users. The model will result into a valuable tool to measure the complex ionospheric behaviour in an operational space weather monitoring and forecasting environment. The development of an ionospheric storm-time index is based on a single ionosonde station data over Grahamstown (33.3°S,26.5°E), South Africa. Critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) measurements for a period 1996-2014 were considered for this study. The model was developed based on linear regression and neural network approaches. In this talk validation results for low, medium and high solar activity periods will be discussed to demonstrate model's performance.

A Multi-spacecraft Study of the Magnetospheric Influence on Ionospheric Chemistry - a Detailed Examination of Recent Geomagnetically Active Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrinec, S. M.; Chenette, D. L.; Imhof, W. L.; Baker, D. N.; Barth, C. A.; Mankoff, K. D.; Luhmann, J. G.; Mason, G. M.; Mazur, J. E.; Evans, D. S.

2001-12-01

A detailed analysis of the particle precipitation into the auroral regions during specific storm intervals is performed. The global energetic particle input to the ionosphere and lower thermosphere is provided by several monitors; namely the Polar Ionospheric X-ray Experiment (PIXIE) on board the NASA/GGS Polar satellite (for inferred electron energies greater than about 3 keV); the TED sensor system on board the NOAA/Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellite (POES) (particle energies between about 50 eV and 20 keV), and the sensor system (LICA) on board the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX) spacecraft (for electron energies greater then 25 keV). Changes in nitric oxide (NO) densities at altitudes between 97 and 150 km during these storm intervals are studied using observations from the Student Nitric Oxide Explorer (SNOE). Solar wind observations are also used to provide important information regarding the external drivers for the magnetospheric input to the upper atmosphere. Specific intervals of examination include the recent large geomagnetic event of March 31-April 1, 2001, and other events from the most recent solar maximum.

Development of statistical linear regression model for metals from transportation land uses.

PubMed

Maniquiz, Marla C; Lee, Soyoung; Lee, Eunju; Kim, Lee-Hyung

2009-01-01

The transportation landuses possessing impervious surfaces such as highways, parking lots, roads, and bridges were recognized as the highly polluted non-point sources (NPSs) in the urban areas. Lots of pollutants from urban transportation are accumulating on the paved surfaces during dry periods and are washed-off during a storm. In Korea, the identification and monitoring of NPSs still represent a great challenge. Since 2004, the Ministry of Environment (MOE) has been engaged in several researches and monitoring to develop stormwater management policies and treatment systems for future implementation. The data over 131 storm events during May 2004 to September 2008 at eleven sites were analyzed to identify correlation relationships between particulates and metals, and to develop simple linear regression (SLR) model to estimate event mean concentration (EMC). Results indicate that there was no significant relationship between metals and TSS EMC. However, the SLR estimation models although not providing useful results are valuable indicators of high uncertainties that NPS pollution possess. Therefore, long term monitoring employing proper methods and precise statistical analysis of the data should be undertaken to eliminate these uncertainties.

Longer Nature-Based Rehabilitation May Contribute to a Faster Return to Work in Patients with Reactions to Severe Stress and/or Depression

PubMed Central

Grahn, Patrik; Pálsdóttir, Anna María; Ottosson, Johan; Jonsdottir, Ingibjörg H.

2017-01-01

The global burden of depression and stress-related mental disorders is substantial, and constitutes a major need for effective rehabilitation. Can nature-based rehabilitation help people return to work? Objective: To study if the length of a nature-based rehabilitation program affects the outcome with regard to return to work one year after the onset of the program, in a group of patients with long-term reactions to severe stress and/or depression. Methods: A prospective, quasi-experimental study comparing results from 8-, 12-, and 24-week periods of rehabilitation. The rehabilitation of 106 participants was carried out by a multimodal rehabilitation team in a specially designed rehabilitation garden. Return to work data were collected before the intervention and one year after the start of rehabilitation. In addition, data were collected regarding self-assessed occupational competence, personal control, and sense of coherence. As many as 68% of the participants returned to work or participated in job training or work-oriented measures, full- or part-time, after one year. Participants with a longer period of rehabilitation reported better results on occupational competence, and were more likely to participate in paid work, full-time or part-time, one year after rehabilitation. Study outcomes indicate that a longer rehabilitation period in a rehabilitation garden increases the possibility of a return to paid work. PMID:29076997