Mars Atmospheric Chemistry in Electrified Dust Devils and Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; Delory, G. T.; Atreya, S. K.; Wong, A.-S.; Renno, N. O.; Sentmann, D. D.; Marshall, J. G.; Cummer, S. A.; Rafkin, S.; Catling, D.

2005-01-01

Laboratory studies, simulations and desert field tests all indicate that aeolian mixing dust can generate electricity via contact electrification or "triboelectricity". In convective structures like dust devils or storms, grain stratification (or charge separation) occurs giving rise to an overall electric dipole moment to the aeolian feature, similar in nature to the dipolar electric field generated in terrestrial thunderstorms. Previous simulation studies [1] indicate that this storm electric field on Mars can approach atmospheric breakdown field strength of 20 kV/m. In terrestrial dust devils, coherent dipolar electric fields exceeding 20 kV/m have been measured directly via electric field instrumentation. Given the expected electrostatic fields in Martian dust devils and storms, electrons in the low pressure CO2 gas can be energized via the electric field to values exceeding the electron dissociative attachment energy of both CO2 and H2O, resulting in the formation of new chemical products CO and O- and OH and H- within the storm. Using a collisional plasma physics model we present a calculation of the CO/O- and OH/H- reaction and production rates. We demonstrate that these rates vary geometrically with ambient electric field, with substantial production of dissociative products when fields approach breakdown levels of 20-30 kV/m.

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES): A UAV-Based Science Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, R. J.; Croskey, C. L.; Desch, M. D.; Farrell, W. M.; Goldberg, R. A.; Houser, J. G.; Kim, H. S.; Mach, D. M.; Mitchell, J. D.; Stoneburner, J. C.

2003-01-01

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)- based project that investigated thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Florida Everglades in August 2002. ACES was conducted to investigate storm electrical activity and its relationship to storm morphology, and to validate satellite-based lightning measurements. In addition, as part of the NASA sponsored UAV-based science demonstration program, this project provided a scientifically useful demonstration of the utility and promise of UAV platforms for Earth science and applications observations. ACES employed the Altus II aircraft, built by General Atomics - Aeronautical Systems, Inc. Key science objectives simultaneously addressed by ACES are to: (1) investigate lightning-storm relationships, (2) study storm electrical budgets, and provide Lightning Imaging Sensor validation. The ACES payload included electrical, magnetic, and optical sensors to remotely characterize the lightning activity and the electrical environment within and around thunderstorms. ACES contributed important electrical and optical measurements not available from other sources. Also, the high altitude vantage point of the UAV observing platform (up to 55,000 feet) provided cloud-top perspective. By taking advantage of its slow flight speed (70 to 100 knots), long endurance, and high altitude flight, the Altus was flown near, and when possible, over (but never into) thunderstorms for long periods of time that allowed investigations to be conducted over entire storm life cycles. An innovative real time weather system was used to identify and vector the aircraft to selected thunderstorms and safely fly around these storms, while, at the same time monitor the weather near our base of operations. In addition, concurrent ground-based observations that included radar (Miami and Key West WSRBD, NASA NPOL), satellite imagery, and lightning (NALDN and Los Alamos EDOT) enable the UAV measurements to be more completely interpreted and evaluated in the context of the thunderstorm structure, evolution, and environment.

Lightning Mapping Observations During DC3 in Northern Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krehbiel, P. R.; Rison, W.; Thomas, R. J.

2012-12-01

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Experiment (DC3) was conducted in three regions covered by Lightning Mapping Arrays (LMAs): Oklahoma and west Texas, northern Alabama, and northern Colorado. In this and a companion presentation, we discuss results obtained from the newly-deployed North Colorado LMA. The CO LMA revealed a surprising variety of lightning-inferred electrical structures, ranging from classic tripolar, normal polarity storms to several variations of anomalously electrified systems. Storms were often characterized by a pronounced lack or deficit of cloud-to-ground discharges (negative or positive), both in relative and absolute terms compared to the large amount of intracloud activity revealed by the LMA. Anomalous electrification was observed in small, localized storms as well as in large, deeply convective and severe storms. Another surprising observation was the frequent occurrence of embedded convection in the downwind anvil/outflow region of large storm systems. Observations of discharges in low flash rate situations over or near the network are sufficiently detailed to enable branching algorithms to estimate total channel lengths for modeling NOx production. However, this will not be possible in large or distant storm systems where the lightning was essentially continuous and structurally complex, or spatially noisy. Rather, a simple empirical metric for characterizing the lightning activity can be developed based on the number of located VHF radiation sources, weighted for example by the peak source power, source altitude, and temporal duration.

Electromagnetic phenomena in granular flows in the laboratory and dusty plasmas in geophysics and astrophysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lathrop, Daniel; Eiskowitz, Skylar; Rojas, Ruben

2017-11-01

In clouds of suspended particles, collisions electrify particles and the clouds produce electric potential differences over large scales. This is seen in the atmosphere as lightning in thunderstorms, thundersnow, dust storms, and volcanic ash plumes, but it is a general phenomena in granular systems. The electrification process is not well understood. To investigate the relative importance of particle material properties and collective phenomena in granular and atmospheric electrification, we used several tabletop experiments that excite particle-laden flows. Various electromagnetic phenomena ensue. Measured electric fields result from capacitive and direct charge transfer to electrodes. These results suggest that while particle properties do matter (as previous investigations have shown), macroscopic electrification of granular flows is somewhat material independent and large-scale collective phenomena play a major role. As well, our results on charge separation and Hall effects suggest a very different view of the dynamics of clouds, planetary rings, and cold accretion disks in proto-planetary systems. We gratefully acknowledge past funding from the Julian Schwinger Foundation as well as the Ph.D. work of Freja Nordsiek.

Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-derived Storm Structure During Hurricane Karl (2010)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reinhart, Brad; Fuelberg, Henry; Blakeslee, Richard; Mach, Douglas; Heymsfield, Andrew; Bansemer, Aaron; Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone; Heymsfield, Gerald; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn

2013-01-01

This study explores relationships between lightning, cloud microphysics, and tropical cyclone (TC) storm structure in Hurricane Karl (16 September 2010) using data collected by the NASA DC-8 and Global Hawk (GH) aircraft during NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. The research capitalizes on the unique opportunity provided by GRIP to synthesize multiple datasets from two aircraft and analyze the microphysical and kinematic properties of an electrified TC. Five coordinated flight legs through Karl by the DC-8 and GH are investigated, focusing on the inner-core region (within 50km of the storm center) where the lightning was concentrated and the aircraft were well coordinated. GRIP datasets are used to compare properties of electrified and nonelectrified inner-core regions that are related to the noninductive charging mechanism, which is widely accepted to explain the observed electric fields within thunderstorms. Three common characteristics of Karl's electrified regions are identified: 1) strong updrafts of 10-20ms21, 2) deep mixed-phase layers indicated by reflectivities.30 dBZ extending several kilometers above the freezing level, and 3) microphysical environments consisting of graupel, very small ice particles, and the inferred presence of supercooled water. These characteristics describe an environment favorable for in situ noninductive charging and, hence, TC electrification. The electrified regions in Karl's inner core are attributable to a microphysical environment that was conducive to electrification because of occasional, strong convective updrafts in the eyewall.

Multi-Criteria Optimization of the Deployment of a Grid for Rural Electrification Based on a Heuristic Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortiz-Matos, L.; Aguila-Tellez, A.; Hincapié-Reyes, R. C.; González-Sanchez, J. W.

2017-07-01

In order to design electrification systems, recent mathematical models solve the problem of location, type of electrification components, and the design of possible distribution microgrids. However, due to the amount of points to be electrified increases, the solution to these models require high computational times, thereby becoming unviable practice models. This study posed a new heuristic method for the electrification of rural areas in order to solve the problem. This heuristic algorithm presents the deployment of rural electrification microgrids in the world, by finding routes for optimal placement lines and transformers in transmission and distribution microgrids. The challenge is to obtain a display with equity in losses, considering the capacity constraints of the devices and topology of the land at minimal economic cost. An optimal scenario ensures the electrification of all neighbourhoods to a minimum investment cost in terms of the distance between electric conductors and the amount of transformation devices.

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES): A UAV-based Investigation of Thunderstorms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, Richard; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) is a NASA-sponsored and -led science investigation that utilizes an uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) to investigate thunderstorms in the vicinity of the NASA Kennedy Space Center, Florida. As part of NASA's UAV-based science demonstration program, ACES will provide a scientifically useful demonstration of the utility and promise of UAV platforms for Earth science and applications observations. ACES will employ the Altus 11 aircraft, built by General Atomics-Aeronautical Systems, Inc. By taking advantage of its slow flight speed (70 to 100 knots), long endurance, and high-altitude flight (up to 55,000 feet), the Altus will be flown near, and when possible, above (but never into) thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be conducted over entire storm life cycles. Key science objectives simultaneously addressed by ACES are to: (1) investigate lightning-storm relationships, (2) study storm electrical budgets, and (3) provide Lightning Imaging Sensor validation. The ACES payload, already developed and flown on Altus, includes electrical, magnetic, and optical sensors to remotely characterize the lightning activity and the electrical environment within and around thunderstorms. The ACES field campaign will be conducted during July 2002 with a goal of performing 8 to 10 UAV flights. Each flight will require about 4 to 5 hours on station at altitudes from 40,000 ft to 55,000 ft. The ACES team is comprised of scientists from the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and NASA Goddard Space Flight Centers partnered with General Atomics and IDEA, LLC.

Oxidant enhancement in martian dust devils and storms: storm electric fields and electron dissociative attachment.

PubMed

Delory, Gregory T; Farrell, William M; Atreya, Sushil K; Renno, Nilton O; Wong, Ah-San; Cummer, Steven A; Sentman, Davis D; Marshall, John R; Rafkin, Scot C R; Catling, David C

2006-06-01

Laboratory studies, numerical simulations, and desert field tests indicate that aeolian dust transport can generate atmospheric electricity via contact electrification or "triboelectricity." In convective structures such as dust devils and dust storms, grain stratification leads to macroscopic charge separations and gives rise to an overall electric dipole moment in the aeolian feature, similar in nature to the dipolar electric field generated in terrestrial thunderstorms. Previous numerical simulations indicate that these storm electric fields on Mars can approach the ambient breakdown field strength of approximately 25 kV/m. In terrestrial dust phenomena, potentials ranging from approximately 20 to 160 kV/m have been directly measured. The large electrostatic fields predicted in martian dust devils and storms can energize electrons in the low pressure martian atmosphere to values exceeding the electron dissociative attachment energy of both CO2 and H2O, which results in the formation of the new chemical products CO/O- and OH/H-, respectively. Using a collisional plasma physics model, we present calculations of the CO/O- and OH/H- reaction and production rates. We demonstrate that these rates vary geometrically with the ambient electric field, with substantial production of dissociative products when fields approach the breakdown value of approximately 25 kV/m. The dissociation of H2O into OH/H- provides a key ingredient for the generation of oxidants; thus electrically charged dust may significantly impact the habitability of Mars.

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2014-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2014-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

A global time-dependent model of thunderstorm electricity. I - Mathematical properties of the physical and numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Browning, G. L.; Tzur, I.; Roble, R. G.

1987-01-01

A time-dependent model is introduced that can be used to simulate the interaction of a thunderstorm with its global electrical environment. The model solves the continuity equation of the Maxwell current, which is assumed to be composed of the conduction, displacement, and source currents. Boundary conditions which can be used in conjunction with the continuity equation to form a well-posed initial-boundary value problem are determined. Properties of various components of solutions of the initial-boundary value problem are analytically determined. The results indicate that the problem has two time scales, one determined by the background electrical conductivity and the other by the time variation of the source function. A numerical method for obtaining quantitative results is introduced, and its properties are studied. Some simulation results on the evolution of the displacement and conduction currents during the electrification of a storm are presented.

The UAV: A unique platform for electrodynamic studies of upward lightning in the middle atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goldberg, Richard A.; Desch, Michael D.; Farrell, William M.

1997-01-01

The use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), a platform for investigations in an environment hostile to manned spacecraft, is discussed. A program which includes the use of UAVs coupled with ground-based measurements to conduct scientific studies on the electrical state of the atmosphere during electrically active periods is proposed. The radiating power from alternate current and transient components of the storm electrification was investigated.

Severe storm electricity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, R. T.; Rust, W. D.

1984-01-01

Successful ground truth support of U-2 overflights was been accomplished. Data have been reduced for 4 June 1984 and some of the results have been integrated into some of MSFC's efforts. Staccato lightning (multiply branched, single stroke flash with no continuing current) is prevalent within the rainfree region around the main storm updraft and this is believed to be important, i.e., staccato flashes might be an important indicator of severe storm electrification. Results from data analysis from two stations appear to indicate that charge center heights can be estimated from a combination of intercept data with data from the fixed laboratory at NSSL. An excellent data base has been provided for determining the sight errors and efficiency of NSSL's LLP system. Cloud structures, observable in a low radar reflectivity region and on a scale smaller than is currently resolved by radar, which appear to be related to electrical activity are studied.

The vertical profile of radar reflectivity of convective cells: A strong indicator of storm intensity and lightning probability?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zipser, Edward J.; Lutz, Kurt R.

1994-01-01

Reflectivity data from Doppler radars are used to construct vertical profiles of radar reflectivity (VPRR) of convective cells in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in three different environmental regimes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CP-3 and CP-4 radars are used to calculate median VPRR for MCSs in the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central in 1985. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere radar in Darwin, Australia, is used to calculate VPRR for MCSs observed both in oceanic, monsoon regimes and in continental, break period regimes during the wet seasons of 1987/88 and 1988/89. The midlatitude and tropical continental VPRRs both exhibit maximum reflectivity somewhat above the surface and have a gradual decrease in reflectivity with height above the freezing level. In sharp contrast, the tropical oceanic profile has a maximum reflectivity at the lowest level and a very rapid decrease in reflectivity with height beginning just above the freezing level. The tropical oceanic profile in the Darwin area is almost the same shape as that for two other tropical oceanic regimes, leading to the conclustion that it is characteristic. The absolute values of reflectivity in the 0 to 20 C range are compared with values in the literature thought to represent a threshold for rapid storm electrification leading to lightning, about 40 dBZ at -10 C. The large negative vertical gradient of reflectivity in this temperature range for oceanic storms is hypothesized to be a direct result of the characteristically weaker vertical velocities observed in MCSs over tropical oceans. It is proposed, as a necessary condition for rapid electrification, that a convective cell must have its updraft speed exceed some threshold value. Based upon field program data, a tentative estimate for the magnitude of this threshold is 6-7 m/s for mean speed and 10-12 m/s for peak speed.

Thundercloud electrification models in atmospheric electricity and meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parker, L. W.

1980-01-01

A survey is presented of presently-available theoretical models. The models are classified into three main groups: (1) convection models, (2) precipitation models, and (3) general models. The strengths and weaknesses of the models, their dimensionalities and degrees of sophistication, the nature of their inputs and outputs, and the various specific charging mechanisms treated by them, are considered. In results obtained to date, the convection models predict no significant electrification enhancement based on conductivity gradients and convection alone, with the assumed air circulation patterns. Results of the precipitation models show that the initial electrification can occur rapidly and stably through noninductive collision mechanisms involving ice, and breakdown-strength electric fields can relatively easily be achieved subsequently through the collisional-inductive mechanism. A critical difficulty of the collision mechanisms is imprecise knowledge of relaxation times versus contact times, which can easily lead to overestimates of electrification. The general model results tend to support those of the precipitation models in emphasizing the high potential effectiveness of the collisional-inductive mechanism.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2014-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Lightning NOx Production and Transport in the 29 May 2012 DC3 case: A Modeling Study Using Radar Data Assimilation and a Branched Lightning Simulation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, B. J.; Mansell, E. R.; Betten, D.

2014-12-01

Open questions exist regarding chemical transport by convection and the sensitivity of Lightning Nitrogen Oxide (LNOx) production to flash type (IC vs. CG), channel height, and channel length. To help answer these and other questions, the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field project was conducted during the spring of 2012. On 29 May 2012, observations of an Oklahoma supercell were collected by two mobile SMART-R radars, the mobile NOXP radar, multiple NEXRAD radars, the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA), and the NSF/NCAR HIAPER and NASA DC-8 aircraft. In this study, data from the mobile and NEXRAD radars are assimilated into the NSSL COMMAS model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter, beginning shortly after initiation of convection and ending when the aircraft made their final measurements of the storm's outflow. The model analyses produce a realistic representation of the kinematic character of the storm throughout this time period. COMMAS includes the NSSL multimoment microphysics, explicit cloud electrification, and a branched lightning discharge scheme, which is used to produce LNOx within the model via a method dependent upon air pressure and lightning channel length. Model results will be presented and compared to radar, lightning, and aircraft observations. Of particular importance, the vertical distribution of lightning, channel length of lightning, and LNOx production and transport in the model will be analyzed and compared to LMA observations and anvil-level outflow observations from the aircraft. In addition, to examine entrainment and detrainment of air by the storm and to provide a check on LNOx production and transport, trajectory analyses will be presented and the transport of inert trace gases such as carbon monoxide in the model will be analyzed and compared to aircraft measurements.

A Model of the Turbulent Electric Dynamo in Multi-Phase Media

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dementyeva, Svetlana; Mareev, Evgeny

2016-04-01

Many terrestrial and astrophysical phenomena witness the conversion of kinetic energy into electric energy (the energy of the quasi-stationary electric field) in conducting media, which is natural to treat as manifestations of electric dynamo by analogy with well-known theory of magnetic dynamo. Such phenomena include thunderstorms and lightning in the Earth's atmosphere and atmospheres of other planets, electric activity caused by dust storms in terrestrial and Martian atmospheres, snow storms, electrical discharges occurring in technological setups, connected with intense mixing of aerosol particles like in the milling industry. We have developed a model of the large-scale turbulent electric dynamo in a weakly conducting medium, containing two heavy-particle components. We have distinguished two main classes of charging mechanisms (inductive and non-inductive) in accordance with the dependence or independence of the electric charge, transferred during a particle collision, on the electric field intensity and considered the simplified models which demonstrate the possibility of dynamo realization and its specific peculiarities for these mechanisms. Dynamo (the large-scale electric field growth) appears due to the charge separation between the colliding and rebounding particles. This process is may be greatly intensified by the turbulent mixing of particles with different masses and, consequently, different inertia. The particle charge fluctuations themselves (small-scale dynamo), however, do not automatically mean growth of the large-scale electric field without a large-scale asymmetry. Such an asymmetry arises due to the dependence of the transferred charge magnitude on the electric field intensity in the case of the inductive mechanism of charge separation, or due to the gravity and convection for non-inductive mechanisms. We have found that in the case of the inductive mechanism the large-scale dynamo occurs if the medium conductivity is small enough while the electrification process determined by the turbulence intensity and particles sizes is strong enough. The electric field strength grows exponentially. For the non-inductive mechanism we have found the conditions when the electric field strength grows but linearly in time. Our results show that turbulent electric dynamo could play a substantial role in the electrification processes for different mechanisms of charge generation and separation. Thunderstorms and lightning are the most frequent and spectacular manifestations of electric dynamo in the atmosphere, but turbulent electric dynamo may also be the reason of electric discharges occurring in dust and snow storms or even in technological setups with intense mixing of small particles.

Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brook, Marx

1991-01-01

The emergence of 24 hr operational lightning detection networks has led to the finding that positive lightning strokes, although still much fewer in number than the normal negative strokes, are present in summer and winter storms. Recent papers address the importance of understanding the meteorological conditions which lead to a dominance of one polarity of stroke over another; the appearance of positive strokes at the end of a storm appeared to presage the end-of-storm downdraft and subsidence leading to downburst activity. It is beginning to appear that positive strokes may be important meteorological indicators. Significant research accomplishments on the following topics are addressed: (1) a study to verify that the black boxes used in the lightning networks to detect both negative and positive strokes to ground were accurate; (2) the use of slow tails to determine the polarity of distant lightning; (3) lightning initiation in winter vs. summer storms; (4) the upgrade of sensors for the measurement of electric field signals associated with lightning; (5) the analysis of lightning flash records from storms between 40 and 125 km from the sensor; and (6) an interesting aspect of the initiation process which involves the physical processes driving the stepped leader. The focus of current research and future research plans are presented.

Lightning mapping and dual-polarization radar observations of electrified storms at Langmuir Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krehbiel, P. R.; Hyland, P. T.; Edens, H. E.; Rison, W.

2013-12-01

Observations being made at Langmuir Laboratory with the NM Tech Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and the University of Oklahoma ARRC PX-1000 dual polarization X-band radar strongly confirm and expand upon the normal polarity tripolar electrical structure of central New Mexico storms. This is in sharp contrast with the anomalously electrified storm structures observed in northern Colorado during and subsequent to the 2012 DC3 field campaign, as seen with North Colorado LMA and CSU CHILL dual-polarization radar observations. In this presentation we focus on the New Mexico observations, and several modes in which the tripolar structure appears initially to develop and evolve with time. Central New Mexico storms are often prolific producers of negative cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes, but rarely produce positive CGs. By contrast, many or most north Colorado storms are CG-deficient, with the relatively few CG discharges being of predominantly positive polarity. In addition, NM storms commonly produce bolt-from-the-blue (BFB) negative CGs, whereas anomalously electrified Colorado storms produce none. The occurrence of BFBs is indicative of a relatively weak lower positive charge region, while the occurrence of normal downward -CGs is indicative of a somewhat stronger lower positive charge. The lack of -CGs in Colorado storms results from lower positive charge being a dominant storm charge that is elevated in altitude. These and other basic features of the electrically activity of storms, coupled with dual polarization and Doppler radar observations of hydrometeor types and motions, are leading to a better understanding of the storm electrification processes.

NASA Studies Lightning Storms Using High-Flying, Uninhabited Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely-piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. Using special equipment aboard the Altus II, scientists in ACES will gather electric, magnetic, and optical measurements of the thunderstorms, gauging elements such as lightning activity and the electrical environment in and around the storms. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Lightning Optical Pulse Statistics from Storm Overflights During the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, D. M.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bailey, J. C.; Farrell, W. M.; Goldberg, R. A.; Desch, M. D.; Houser, J. G.

2004-01-01

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) was conducted during the month of August, 2002 in an area near Key West, Florida. One of the goals of this uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) study was to collect time resolved optical pulse data from thunderstorms. During the month long campaign, we acquired 5294 lightning generated optical pulses. Most of these observations were made while close to the top of the storms. We divided our data into two amplitude groups based on prior NASA U2 aircraft optical data and our pulse characteristics. The group of large pulses with radiance greater than 2.1 mW /sq m sr had mean and median 10 - 10% optical pulse widths of 765 and 735 microns respectively, the 50-50% pulse widths of 396 and 355 microns respectively, and 10-90% rise times of 290 and 260 microns. These values are very similar to the previous U2 based optical results The other group of pulses consisting of slightly more than a quarter of the total pulses observed had radiances less than the minimum values detected in the U2 study. The small pulses were narrower than the large pulses with 5040% mean and median values of 198 and 160 ps respectively. Only 12 % of the flashes contained only small pulses, minimizing the impact of this data on the estimates of detection efficiencies of the orbital instruments, the Lightning Imaging Sensor and Optical Transient Detector.

Dual-Polarization Radar Observations of Upward Lightning-Producing Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lueck, R.; Helsdon, J. H.; Warner, T.

2013-12-01

The Upward Lightning Triggering Study (UPLIGHTS) seeks to determine how upward lightning, which originates from the tips of tall objects, is triggered by nearby flash activity. As a component of this study we analyze standard and dual-polarization weather radar data. The Correlation Coefficient (CC) in particular can be used to identify and quantify the melting layer associated with storms that produce upward lightning. It has been proposed that positive charge generation due to aggregate shedding at the melting layer results in a positive charge region just above the cloud base. This positive charge region may serve as a positive potential well favorable for negative leader propagation, which initiate upward positive leaders from tall objects. We characterize the horizontal coverage, thickness and height of the melting layer in addition to cloud base heights when upward lightning occurs to determine trends and possible threshold criteria relating to upward lightning production. Furthermore, we characterize storm type and morphology using relevant schemes as well as precipitation type using the Hydrometer Classification Algorithm (HCA) for upward lightning-producing storms. Ice-phase hydrometeors have been shown to be a significant factor in thunderstorm electrification. Only a small fraction of storms produce upward lightning, so null cases will be examined and compared as well.

Balloon Measurements of Electric Fields in Thunderstorms: A Modern Version of Benjamin Franklin's Kite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, T. C.; Stolzenburg, M.

2006-12-01

One of Benjamin Franklin's most famous experiments was the kite experiment, which showed that thunderstorms are electrically charged. It is not as commonly noted that the kite experiment was also one of the the first attempts to make an in situ measurement of any storm parameter. Franklin realized the importance of making measurements close to and within storms, and this realization has been shared by later atomspheric scientists. In this presentation we focus on a modern version of Franklin's kite--instrumented balloons--used for in situ measurements of electric field and other storm parameters. In particular, most of our knowledge of the charge structure inside thunderstorms is based on balloon soundings of electric field. Balloon measurements of storm electricity began with the work of Simpson and colleagues in the 1930's and 1940's. The next major instrumentation advances were made by Winn and colleagues in the 1970's and 1980's. Today's instruments are digital versions of the Winn design. We review the main instrument techniques that have allowed balloons to be the worthy successors to kites. We also discuss some of the key advances in our understanding of thunderstorm electrification made with in situ balloon-borne instruments.

Coordinated field study for CaPE: Analysis of energy and water budgets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Duchon, Claude; Kanemasu, Edward T.; Smith, Eric A.; Crosson, William; Laymon, Chip; Luvall, Jeff

1993-01-01

The objectives of this hydrologic cycle study are to understand and model (1) surface energy and land-atmosphere water transfer processes, and (2) interactions between convective storms and surface energy fluxes. A surface energy budget measurement campaign was carried out by an interdisciplinary science team during the period July 8 - August 19, 1991 as part of the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in the vicinity of Cape Canaveral, FL. Among the research themes associated with CaPE is the remote estimation of rainfall. Thus, in addition to surface radiation and energy budget measurements, surface mesonet, special radiosonde, precipitation, high-resolution satellite (SPOT) data, geosynchronous (GOES) and polar orbiting (DMSP SSM/I, OLS; NOAA AVHRR) satellite data, and high altitude airplane data (AMPR, MAMS, HIS) were collected. Initial quality control of the seven surface flux station data sets has begun. Ancillary data sets are being collected and assembled for analysis. Browsing of GOES and radar data has begun to classify days as disturbed/undisturbed to identify the larger scale forcing of the pre-convective environment, convection storms and precipitation. The science analysis plan has been finalized and tasks assigned to various investigators.

Earth Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-08-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely-piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. Using special equipment aboard the Altus II, scientists in ACES will gather electric, magnetic, and optical measurements of the thunderstorms, gauging elements such as lightning activity and the electrical environment in and around the storms. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Anticipated Electrical Environment at Phobos: Nominal and Solar Storm Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farrell, W. M.; Halekas, J. S.; Fatemi, S.; Poppe, A. R.; Hartzell, C.; Marshall, J. R.; Stubbs, T. J.; Zimmerman, M. I.; Zheng, Y.

2017-01-01

A passing coronal mass ejection (CME) will manifest a different response at an airless body compared to a magnetized planet. Specifically,because the regolith-rich surfaces of airless bodies are directly exposed to the variations in the plasma flow, the surfaces are found to undergo anomalous surface charging during the passing of CME fast plasma events. In this study, we model the surface charging expected at Phobos for nominal solar wind conditions and also those associated with disturbed solar wind conditions during the passage of a CME similar to that observed by MAVEN at Mars in early March 2015. We use an ambipolar diffusion model to examine the development of the trailing wake void in the plasma flow behind Phobos and the formation of mini-wakes within obstruction regions like Stickney Crater. We also consider the roving of an astronaut in Stickney Crater for Phobos positioned near 10 hours Local Time relative to Mars. We examine the plasma dissipation of the collected astronaut charge from contact electrification with the regolith.

Observing and Predicting Vog Dispersion from Hawai'i's K¯i lauea Volcano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Businger, Steven; Pattantyus, Andre; Horton, Keith; Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

2014-05-01

In 2014, the Kīlauea volcano on the Island of Hawai'i enters its 32st year of nearly continuous eruption. Since 1983, east rift SO2 emissions have ranged from <50 tonnes, during the periods of eruptive pause, to over 30,000 tonnes per day, during periods of enhanced activity. Emissions from Kīlauea volcano pose significant environmental and health risks to the Hawai'i community. The Vog Measurement and Prediction (VMAP) project was conceived to help mitigate the negative impacts of Kīlauea's emissions. To date, VMAP has achieved the following milestones: (i) created a custom application of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HY-SPLIT) model (Vog Model, hereafter) to produce real-time statewide forecasts of the concentration and dispersion of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and sulfate aerosol from Kīlauea volcano; (ii) developed an ultraviolet (UV) spectrometer array to provide near real-time volcanic gas emission rate measurements for use as input to the dispersion model; (iii) developed and deployed a stationary array of ambient SO2 and meteorological sensors to record the spatial characteristics of Kīlauea's gas plume in high temporal and spatial resolution for model verification; and (iv) developed web-based dissemination of observations and forecasts that provide guidance for safety officials to protect the public and raise public awareness of the potential hazards of volcanic emissions to respiratory health, agriculture, and general aviation (http://weather.hawaii.edu/vmap/). Wind fields and thermodynamic data from the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model provide input to the vog model, with a statewide resolution of 3 km and a resolution of 1 km covering Hawai'i Island. Validation of the vog model predictions is accomplished with reference to data from Hawai'i State Department of Health ground-based Air Quality monitors. VMAP results show that this approach can provide useful guidance for the people of Hawai'i. An ensemble version of the Vog Model has been developed and a description of the ensemble implementation and ensemble products will be presented. On 29 July 2013, Tropical Storm Flossie passed the Hawaiian Islands, marking the first volcano/tropical cyclone interaction captured by the Vog Model since operational simulations began in 2010. This complex interaction prompted questions about the effects of volcanic aerosols on convective precipitation and electrification, associated with tropical cyclones. Results from the Vog Model are compared qualitatively with satellite observations, lightning data from Vaisala's GLD-360, and National Weather Service WSR-88 Dual-Polarmetric radar to document the interaction of volcanic emissions and the storm circulation and electrification.

Lightning and Precipitation: Observational Analysis of LIS and PR

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adamo, C.; Solomon, R.; Goodman, S.; Dietrich, S.; Mugnai, A.

2003-01-01

Lightning flash rate can identify areas of convective rainfall when the storms are dominated by ice-phase precipitation. Modeling and observational studies indicate that cloud electrification and microphysics are very closely related and it is of great interest to understand the relationship between lightning and cloud microphysical quantities. Analyzing data from the Lightning Image Sensor (LIS) and the Precipitation Radar (PR), we show a quantitative relationship between microphysical characteristics of thunderclouds and lightning flash rate. We have performed a complete analysis of all data available over the Mediterranean during the TRMM mission and show a range of reflective profiles as a function of lightning activity for both convective and stratiform regimes as well as seasonal variations. Due to the increasing global coverage of lightning detection networks, this kind of study can used to extend the knowledge about thunderstorms and discriminate between different regimes in regions where radar measurements are readilly available.

NASA Studies Lightning Storms Using High-Flying, Uninhabited Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Radio news media can talk with Dr. Richard Blakeslee, the project's principal investigator, and Tony Kim, project manager at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), about their results and how their work will help improve future weather forecasting ability. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely- piloted aircraft to study a thunderstorm in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West, two storms at the western edge of the Everglades, and a large storm over the northwestern corner of the Everglades. This photograph shows Tony Kim And Dr. Richard Blakeslee of MSFC testing aircraft sensors that would be used to measure the electric fields produced by thunderstorm as part of NASA's ACES. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the MSFC, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

NASA Studies Lightning Storms Using High-Flying, Uninhabited Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely-piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. Data obtained through sensors mounted to the aircraft will allow researchers in ACES to gauge elements such as lightning activity and the electrical environment in and around storms. By learning more about individual storms, scientists hope to better understand the global water and energy cycle, as well as climate variability. Contained in one portion of the aircraft is a three-axis magnetic search coil, which measures the AC magnetic field; a three-axis electric field change sensor; an accelerometer; and a three-axis magnetometer, which measures the DC magnetic field. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Gatlin, Patrick N.

2013-01-01

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Airport emissions quantification: Impacts of electrification. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Geba, V.

1998-07-01

Four airports were assessed to demonstrate that electrification of economically viable air- and land-side vehicles and equipment can significantly reduce total airport emissions. Assessments were made using the FAA`s Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System and EPRI Airport Electrification Project data. Development and implementation of cost-effective airport emissions reduction strategies can be complex, requiring successful collaboration of local, state, and federal regulatory agencies with airport authorities. The methodology developed in this study helps to simplify this task. The objectives of this study were: to develop a methodology to quantify annual emissions at US airports from all sources--aircraft, vehicles, and infrastructure; andmore » to demonstrate that electrification of economically viable air- and land-side vehicles and equipment can significantly reduce total airport emissions on-site, even when allowing for emissions from the generation of electricity.« less

Earth Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-01-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Radio news media can talk with Dr. Richard Blakeslee, the project's principal investigator, and Tony Kim, project manager at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), about their results and how their work will help improve future weather forecasting ability. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely- piloted aircraft to study a thunderstorm in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West, two storms at the western edge of the Everglades, and a large storm over the northwestern corner of the Everglades. This photograph shows Tony Kim And Dr. Richard Blakeslee of MSFC testing aircraft sensors that would be used to measure the electric fields produced by thunderstorm as part of NASA's ACES. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the MSFC, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Electric Field and Lightning Observations in the Core of Category 5 Hurricane Emily

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blakeslee, Richard; Mach, Doug M.; Bateman, Monte G.; Bailey, Jeff C.

2007-01-01

Significant electric fields and lightning activity associated with Hurricane Emily were observed from a NASA high-altitude ER-2 aircraft on July 17, 2005 while this storm developed as a compact but intense category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean south of Cuba. The electrical measurements were acquired as part of the NASA sponsored Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) experiment. In addition to the electrical measurements, the aircraft's remote sensing instrument complement also included active radars, passive microwave, visible and infrared radiometers, and a temperature sounder providing details on the dynamical, microphysical, and environmental structure, characteristics and development of this intense storm. Cloud-to-ground lightning location data from Vaisala's long range lightning detection network were also acquired and displayed in real-time along with electric fields measured at the aircraft. These data and associated display also supported aircraft guidance and vectoring during the mission. During the observing period, flash rates in excess of 3 to 5 flashes per minute, as well as large electric field and field change values were observed as the storm appeared to undergo periods of intensification, especially in the northwest quadrant in the core eyewall regions. This is in contrast to most hurricanes that tend to be characterized by weak electrification and little or no lightning activity except in the outer rain bands. It should be noted that this storm also had significant lightning associated with its rain bands.

A study of the Merritt Island, Florida sea breeze flow regimes and their effect on surface heat and moisture fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubes, M. T.; Cooper, H. J.; Smith, E. A.

1993-01-01

Data collected during the Convective and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment were analyzed as part of an investigation of the sea breeze in the vicinity of Merritt Island, Florida. Analysis of near-surface divergence fields shows that the classical 24-hour oscillation in divergence over the island due to the direct sea breeze circulation is frequently disrupted and exhibits two distinct modes: the classical sea breeze pattern and deviations from that pattern. A comparison of clear day surface energy fluxes with fluxes on other days indicates that changes in magnitudes were dominated by the presence or absence of clouds. Non-classical sea breeze days tended to lose more available energy in the morning than classical sea breeze days due to earlier development of small cumulus over the island. A composite storm of surface winds, surface energy fluxes, rainfall, and satellite visible data was constructed. A spectral transmittance over the visible wavelengths for the cloud cover resulting from the composite storm was calculated. It is shown that pre-storm transmittances of 0.8 fall to values near 0.1 as the downdraft moves directly over the site. It is also found that under post-composite storm conditions of continuous clear sky days, 3.5 days are required to evaporate back into the atmosphere the latent heat energy lost to the surface by rainfall.

Breakdown Characteristics and Streaming Electrification Characteristics of Flame Retardant Silicone Oil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arazoe, Satoshi; Yasuda, Koji; Okabe, Shigemitsu; Ueta, Genyo; Yanabu, Satoru

We have investigated the performance of the silicone oil as alternative oil to the mineral oil that is used as an insulation medium of the oil immersed transformer. There are various methods of evaluating the performance, we especially investigated the breakdown characteristics and the streaming electrification characteristics. In the breakdown characteristics, the insulation performance under the influence of changing the temperature, and the electrode shape was investigated. Moreover, the insulation performance in the composite insulation system that was composed of the insulation oil and the oil immersed insulator was investigated. From these results, we found that in the oil gap model, the breakdown voltage of silicone oil was lower than that of mineral oil by 15%. In contrast, in the composite insulation system, breakdown voltage of combination with silicone oil is higher than that of combination with mineral oil. In the streaming electrification characteristics, the difference of the amount of electrification under the influence of changing the kinds of solid insulators and the temperature was investigated. As a result, we found that silicone oil has the maximum of the amount of electrification at a high temperature compared with mineral oil.

A Modeling Study of the Spatial Structure of Electric Fields Generated by Electrified Clouds with Screening Layers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biagi, C. J.; Cummins, K. L.

2015-12-01

The growing possibility of inexpensive airborne observations of electric fields using one or more small UAVs increases the importance of understanding what can be determined about cloud electrification and associated electric fields outside cloud boundaries. If important information can be inferred from carefully selected flight paths outside of a cloud, then the aircraft and its instrumentation will be much cheaper to develop and much safer to operate. These facts have led us to revisit this long-standing topic using quasi-static, finite-element modeling inside and outside arbitrarily shaped clouds with a variety of internal charge distributions. In particular, we examine the effect of screening layers on electric fields outside of electrified clouds by comparing modeling results for charged clouds having electrical conductivities that are both equal to and lower than the surrounding clear air. The comparisons indicate that the spatial structure of the electric field is approximately the same regardless of the difference in the conductivities between the cloud and clear air and the formation of a screening layer, even for altitude-dependent electrical conductivities. This result is consistent with the numerical modeling results reported by Driscoll et al [1992]. The similarity of the spatial structure of the electric field outside of clouds with and without a screening layer suggests that "bulk" properties related to cloud electrification might be determined using measurements of the electric field at multiple locations in space outside the cloud, particularly at altitude. Finally, for this somewhat simplified model, the reduction in electric field magnitude outside the cloud due to the presence of a screening layer exhibits a simple dependence on the difference in conductivity between the cloud and clear air. These results are particularly relevant for studying clouds that are not producing lightning, such as developing thunderstorms and decaying anvils associated with mature storm systems.Driscoll K.T., R.J. Blakeslee, M.E. Baginski, 1992, A modeling study of the time-averaged electric currents in the vicinity of isolated thunderstorms, J. Geophys. Res., 97, D11, pp 11535-11551.

Statistical patterns in the location of natural lightning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoghzoghy, F. G.; Cohen, M. B.; Said, R. K.; Inan, U. S.

2013-01-01

Lightning discharges are nature's way of neutralizing the electrical buildup in thunderclouds. Thus, if an individual discharge destroys a substantial fraction of the cloud charge, the probability of a subsequent flash is reduced until the cloud charge separation rebuilds. The temporal pattern of lightning activity in a localized region may thus inherently be a proxy measure of the corresponding timescales for charge separation and electric field buildup processes. We present a statistical technique to bring out this effect (as well as the subsequent recovery) using lightning geo-location data, in this case with data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and from the GLD360 Network. We use this statistical method to show that a lightning flash can remove an appreciable fraction of the built up charge, affecting the neighboring lightning activity for tens of seconds within a ˜ 10 km radius. We find that our results correlate with timescales of electric field buildup in storms and suggest that the proposed statistical tool could be used to study the electrification of storms on a global scale. We find that this flash suppression effect is a strong function of flash type, flash polarity, cloud-to-ground flash multiplicity, the geographic location of lightning, and is proportional to NLDN model-derived peak stroke current. We characterize the spatial and temporal extent of the suppression effect as a function of these parameters and discuss various applications of our findings.

An 11-Year Climatology of Storms in Which Most Cloud-to-Ground Flashes Lower Positive Charge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGorman, D. R.; Eddy, A.; Williams, E. R.; Calhoun, K. M.

2017-12-01

Previous studies have shown that storms which produce frequent cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning dominated by flashes lowering positive charge to ground (+CG flashes) tend to have a so called "inverted" vertical distribution of charge. Such storms have implications for our understanding of electrification processes. We have analyzed eleven years of National Lightning Detection Network data to count +CG and -CG flashes having peak currents ≥15 kA in grid cells with dimensions of 15 km x 15 km x 15 min, with overlapping grid boxes every 5 km along both x and y over the contiguous United States and grids every 5 min in time. These dimensions were chosen because 15 km corresponds roughly to the horizontal size of typical storm cells and 15 min is roughly half the typical duration of a cell. To focus on storms dominated by +CG flashes, we identified all grid cells satisfying one of four sets of thresholds: cells in which +CG flashes for 15 min constitute ≥80%, 90%, or 100% of ≥10 CG flashes or 100% of ≥20 CG flashes. These percentages are larger than those used in most previous studies of +CG flashes. Our primary goal is to investigate the environmental and storm characteristics conducive to +CG flashes and "inverted-polarity" charge distributions, but here we concentrate on the interannual and seasonal distributions of storms satisfying the above thresholds and examine also their relationship to severe weather. As in previous climatological studies of geographic variations in the +CG fraction of total CG flashes, most storms satisfying our thresholds were in a swath stretching from far eastern Colorado and western Kansas roughly northward through Nebraska, the Dakotas, and Minnesota. This region overlaps much of the region in which radar inferred that hail larger than 2.9 cm in diameter most often occurs, but is shifted westward and northward from maxima of observer reports of large-hail occurrence. Although the relationship with radar-inferred large-hail frequency suggests a common dependence on some storm characteristics, storms satisfying our thresholds for +CG flashes also occurred, although less frequently, in regions in which few storms were inferred to have produced large hail, such as east of mountain ranges in northwestern states, so relationships with severe weather will need to be examined on a storm-by-storm basis.

Earth Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-08-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely-piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. Data obtained through sensors mounted to the aircraft will allow researchers in ACES to gauge elements such as lightning activity and the electrical environment in and around storms. By learning more about individual storms, scientists hope to better understand the global water and energy cycle, as well as climate variability. Contained in one portion of the aircraft is a three-axis magnetic search coil, which measures the AC magnetic field; a three-axis electric field change sensor; an accelerometer; and a three-axis magnetometer, which measures the DC magnetic field. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Linking the open source, spatial electrification tool (ONSSET) and the open source energy modelling system (OSeMOSYS), with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Arderne, Christopher; Siyal, Shahid; Zepeda, Eduardo; Taliotis, Constantinos; Bazilian, Morgan; de Roo, Ad; Tanvez, Yann; Oudalov, Alexandre; Scholtz, Ernst

2017-04-01

In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. "Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030" is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank's 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of world population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach coupled with open access data and linked to the Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA), a model that represents each continental African country's electricity supply system. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.

Air Quality Impacts of Electrifying Vehicles and Equipment Across the United States.

PubMed

Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Grant, John; Knipping, Eladio; Alexander, Mark; Schurhoff, Rob; Young, David; Jung, Jaegun; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg

2017-03-07

U.S.-wide air quality impacts of electrifying vehicles and off-road equipment are estimated for 2030 using 3-D photochemical air quality model and detailed emissions inventories. Electrification reduces tailpipe emissions and emissions from petroleum refining, transport, and storage, but increases electricity demand. The Electrification Case assumes approximately 17% of light duty and 8% of heavy duty vehicle miles traveled and from 17% to 79% of various off-road equipment types considered good candidates for electrification is powered by electricity. The Electrification Case raises electricity demand by 5% over the 2030 Base Case but nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions decrease by 209 thousand tons (3%) overall. Emissions of other criteria pollutants also decrease. Air quality benefits of electrification are modest, mostly less than 1 ppb for ozone and 0.5 μg m -3 for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), but widespread. The largest reductions for ozone and PM occur in urban areas due to lower mobile source emissions. Electrifying off-road equipment yields more benefits than electrifying on-road vehicles. Reduced crude oil imports and associated marine vessel emissions cause additional benefits in port cities. Changes in other gas and PM emissions, as well as impacts on acid and nutrient deposition, are discussed.

A Brief 30-Year Review: Research Highlights from Lightning Mapping Systems 1970-2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacGorman, D. R.

2016-12-01

Modern lightning mapping began in the 1970s, the decade in which VHF mapping systems, acoustic mapping systems, and ground strike locating systems were introduced. Adding GPS synchronization of VHF systems in the late 1990s enabled real-time VHF mapping systems to be deployed more extensively. Data these systems provided by 2000 revolutionized our understanding of how storms produce lightning. Among key results: Electrostatics, not electrodynamics, governs where lightning is initiated and where it propagates, contrary to early expectations. Lightning is initiated in a region of large electric field magnitude, typically between a positive charge region and a negative charge region. The geometry of a storm's charge regions governs the spatial extent of each end of the flash. The flash initially propagates bidirectionally toward the two charge regions that initiated it, and once it reaches the charge regions and maximizes the ambient potential difference spanned by the flash structure, it extends through each charge region's ambient electric potential well until the total electric field magnitude at the ends of the flash drops below the threshold for continued propagation. The typical charge distribution producing a cloud-to-ground flash is a region of charge of the polarity being lowered to ground, above a lesser amount of charge of the opposite polarity; the lower region has too little charge to capture the downward propagating channel. Contrary to previous understanding, naturally occurring cloud-to-ground lightning often lowers positive charge to ground, instead of the usual negative charge, in several situations, including winter storms, stratiform precipitation regions, some severe storms, and storms on the High Plains of the United States. The reason cloud-to-ground activity in some storms is dominated by flashes that lower positive charge to ground is that the polarity of the main charge regions in those storms is inverted from the usual polarity, with the main mid-level charge being positive and the main upper-level charge being negative. This strongly implies that the dominant non-inductive electrification mechanism is inverted in those storms, probably because the liquid water content in the mixed phase region is larger than in most storms.

Preliminary Optical And Electric Field Pulse Statistics From Storm Overflights During The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mach, D. A.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bailey, J. C.; Farrell, W. M.; Goldberg, R. A.; Desch, M. D.; Houser, J. G.

2003-01-01

The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) was conducted during the month of August, 2002 in an area near Key West, Florida. One of the goals of this uninhabited aerial vehicle (UAV) study was to collect high resolution optical pulse and electric field data from thunderstorms. During the month long campaign, we acquired 5294 lightning generated optical pulses with associated electric field changes. Most of these observations were made while close to the top of the storms. We found filtered mean and median 10-10% optical pulse widths of 875 and 830 microns respectively while the 50-50% mean and median optical pulse widths are 422 and 365 microns respectively. These values are similar to previous results as are the 10-90% mean and median rise times of 327 and 265 microns. The peak electrical to optical pulse delay mean and median were 209 and 145 microns which is longer than one would expect from theoretical results. The results of the pulse analysis will contribute to further validation of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) satellites. Pre-launch estimates of the flash detection efficiency were based on a small sample of optical pulse measurements associated with less than 350 lightning discharges collected by NASA U-2 aircraft in the early 1980s. Preliminary analyses of the ACES measurements show that we have greatly increased the number of optical pulses available for validation of the LIS and other orbital lightning optical sensors. Since the Altus was often close to the cloud tops, many of the optical pulses are from low-energy pulses. From these low-energy pulses, we can determine the fraction of optical lightning pulses below the thresholds of LIS, OTD, and any future satellite-based optical sensors such as the geostationary Lightning Mapping Sensor.

Electricity and Empire in 1920s Palestine under British Rule.

PubMed

Shamir, Ronen

2016-12-01

This article examines some techno-political aspects of the early years of electrification in British-ruled 1920s Palestine. It emphasizes the importance of local technical, topographical and hydrological forms of knowledge for understanding the dynamics of electrification. Situating the analysis in a general colonial context of electrification, the study shows that British colonial rulers lagged behind both German firms and local entrepreneurs in understanding the specific conditions pertaining to electrification in Palestine. Subsequently, the study shows that the British had limited control of the actual electrification process and its declared/professed developmental purposes, thereby complicating assumptions about electrification as a tool of the Empire/tool of empire. Finding some similarities between the cases of electrifying Palestine and India, the article's findings may shed further light on the importance of micro-politics of knowledge for understanding the trajectory of electrification in the colonies.

The electrification of stratiform anvils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccippio, Dennis J.

1997-10-01

Stratiform precipitation regions accompany convective activity on many spatial scales. The electrification of these regions is anomalous in a number of ways. Surface and above-cloud fields are often 'inverted' from normal thunderstorm conditions. Unusually large, bright, horizontal 'spider' lightning and high current and charge transfer positive cloud-to-ground (CC) lightning dominates in these regions. Mesospheric 'red sprite' emissions have to date been observed exclusively over stratiform cloud shields. We postulate that a dominant 'inverted dipole' charge structure may account for this anomalous electrification. This is based upon laboratory observations of charge separation which show that in low liquid water content (LWC) environments, or dry but ice- supersaturated environments, precipitation ice tends to charge positively (instead of negatively) upon collision with smaller crystals. Under typical stratiform cloud conditions, liquid water should be depleted and this charging regime favored. An inverted dipole would be the natural consequence of large-scale charge separation (net flux divergence of charged ice), given typical hydrometeor profiles. The inverted dipole hypothesis is tested using radar and electrical observations of four weakly organized, late- stage systems in Orlando, Albuquerque and the Western Pacific. Time-evolving, area-average vertical velocity profiles are inferred from single Doppler radar data. These profiles provide the forcing for a 1-D steady state micro-physical retrieval, which yields vertical hydrometeor profiles and ice/water saturation conditions. The retrieved microphysical parameters are then combined with laboratory charge transfer measurements to infer the instantaneous charging behavior of the systems. Despite limitations in the analysis technique, the retrievals yield useful results. Total charge transfer drops only modestly as the storm enters the late (stratiform) stage, suggesting a continued active generator is plausible. Generator currents show an enhanced lowermost inverted dipole charging structure, which we may infer will result in a comparable inverted dipole charge structure, consistent with surface, in-situ and remote observations. Fine-scale vertical variations in ice and liquid water content may yield multipolar generator current profiles, despite unipolar charge transfer regimes. This suggests that multipoles observed in balloon soundings may not necessarily conflict with the simple ice-ice collisional charge separation mechanism. Overall, the results are consistent with, but not proof of, the inverted dipole model. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253- 1690.)

Ahmad Pesaran Honored with DOE Assistant Secretary's 2017 EERE Outstanding

Science.gov Websites

lithium-ion battery performance for electric vehicles. No stranger to inspiring colleagues, providing Michelbacher (INL, VTO Battery and Electrification), Steven Boyd (DOE, VTO Battery and Electrification), Brian Cunningham (DOE, VTO Battery and Electrification), Samuel Gillard (DOE, VTO Battery and Electrification

Electrification of organic particles explains apparent absence of small-scale bedforms on Titan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pähtz, T.; Duran Vinent, O.

2017-12-01

Harper et al. (Nat. Geosci., 2017) recently reported measurements that contact electrification tends to charge Titan sand, which is mainly composed of low-density organic particles, much more readily than Earth sand. We here show that this finding has major implications for the formation of bedforms on Titan by incorporating it into a recent unified theory of sediment transport cessation across environments (https://arxiv.org/abs/1602.07079): The modified theory predicts that the cessation threshold and thus the saturation length of sediment transport on Titan increase strongly as a result of contact electrification. We then use the predicted saturation length as an input in a recent unified bedform model by Duran and co-workers to explain the apparent absence of small-scale bedforms on Titan suggested by observations.

The electrification of spacecraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Akishin, A. I.; Novikov, L. S.

1985-01-01

Physical and applied aspects of the electrification of space vehicles and natural celestial objects are discussed, the factors resulting in electrification of spacecraft are analyzed, and methods of investigating various phenomena associated with this electrification and ways of protecting spacecraft against the influence of static electricity are described. The booklet is intended for the general reader interested in present day questions of space technology.

Global lightning and severe storm monitoring from GPS orbit

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Suszcynsky, D. M.; Jacobson, A. R.; Linford, J

Over the last few decades, there has been a growing interest to develop and deploy an automated and continuously operating satellite-based global lightning mapper [e.g. Christian et al., 1989; Weber et al., 1998; Suszcynsky et al., 2000]. Lightning is a direct consequence of the electrification and breakdown processes that take place during the convective stages of thunderstorm development. Satellite-based lightning mappers are designed to exploit this relationship by using lightning detection as a proxy for remotely identifying, locating and characterizing strong convective activity on a global basis. Global lightning and convection mapping promises to provide users with (1) an enhancedmore » global severe weather monitoring and early warning capability [e.g. Weber et al., 1998] (2) improved ability to optimize aviation flight paths around convective cells, particularly over oceanic and remote regions that are not sufficiently serviced by existing weather radar [e.g. Weber et al., 1998], and (3) access to regional and global proxy data sets that can be used for scientific studies and as input into meteorological forecast and global climatology models. The physical foundation for satellite-based remote sensing of convection by way of lightning detection is provided by the basic interplay between the electrical and convective states of a thundercloud. It is widely believed that convection is a driving mechanism behind the hydrometeor charging and transport that produces charge separation and lightning discharges within thunderclouds [e.g. see chapter 3 in MacGorman and Rust, 1998]. Although cloud electrification and discharge processes are a complex function of the convective dynamics and microphysics of the cloud, the fundamental relationship between convection and electrification is easy to observe. For example, studies have shown that the strength of the convective process within a thundercell can be loosely parameterized (with large variance) by the intensity of the electrical activity within that cell as measured by the lightning flash rate. Williams [2001] has provided a review of experimental work that shows correlations between the total lightning flash rate and the fifth power of the radar cloud-top height (i.e. convective strength) of individual thunder cells. More recently, Ushio et al., [2001] used a large statistical sampling of optical data from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) in conjunction with data provided by the Precipitation Radar (PR) aboard the Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) satellite to conclude that the total lightning flash rate increases exponentially with storm height. Lightning activity levels have also been correlated to cloud ice content, a basic product of the convective process. For example, Blyth et al. [2001] used the Thermal Microwave Imager (TMI) aboard the TRMM satellite to observe a decrease in the 37 and 85 GHz brightness temperatures of upwelling terrestrial radiation during increased lightning activity. This reduction in brightness temperature is believed to be the result of increased ice scattering in the mixed phase region of the cloud. Toracinta and Zipser [2001] have found similar relationships using the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instrument and the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) aboard the DMSP satellites.« less

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J.; Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin A.

This report provides projected cost and performance assumptions for electric technologies considered in the Electrification Futures Study, a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the effects of widespread electrification of end-use service demands in all major economic sectors - transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industry - for the contiguous United States through 2050. Using extensive literature searches and expert assessment, the authors identify slow, moderate, and rapid technology advancement sensitivities on technology cost and performance, and they offer a comparative analysis of levelized cost metrics as a reference indicator of total costs. The identification and characterization of these end-use servicemore » demand technologies is fundamental to the Electrification Futures Study. This report, the larger Electrification Futures Study, and the associated data and methodologies may be useful to planners and analysts in evaluating the potential role of electrification in an uncertain future. The report could be broadly applicable for other analysts and researchers who wish to assess electrification and electric technologies.« less

NASA Studies Lightning Storms Using High-Flying, Uninhabited Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely-piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. The ACES lightning study used the Altus II twin turbo uninhabited aerial vehicle, built by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. of San Diego. The Altus II was chosen for its slow flight speed of 75 to 100 knots (80 to 115 mph), long endurance, and high-altitude flight (up to 65,000 feet). These qualities gave the Altus II the ability to fly near and around thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be to be conducted over the entire life cycle of storms. The vehicle has a wing span of 55 feet and a payload capacity of over 300 lbs. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA,s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

NASA Studies Lightning Storms Using High-Flying, Uninhabited Vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. The ACES lightning study used the Altus II twin turbo uninhabited aerial vehicle, built by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. of San Diego. The Altus II was chosen for its slow flight speed of 75 to 100 knots (80 to 115 mph), long endurance, and high-altitude flight (up to 65,000 feet). These qualities gave the Altus II the ability to fly near and around thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be conducted over the entire life cycle of storms. The vehicle has a wing span of 55 feet and a payload capacity of over 300 lbs. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Energy solutions in rural Africa: mapping electrification costs of distributed solar and diesel generation versus grid extension

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szabó, S.; Bódis, K.; Huld, T.; Moner-Girona, M.

2011-07-01

Three rural electrification options are analysed showing the cost optimal conditions for a sustainable energy development applying renewable energy sources in Africa. A spatial electricity cost model has been designed to point out whether diesel generators, photovoltaic systems or extension of the grid are the least-cost option in off-grid areas. The resulting mapping application offers support to decide in which regions the communities could be electrified either within the grid or in an isolated mini-grid. Donor programs and National Rural Electrification Agencies (or equivalent governmental departments) could use this type of delineation for their program boundaries and then could use the local optimization tools adapted to the prevailing parameters. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent European Commission and UNEP policy.

Efficient System Design and Sustainable Finance for China's Village Electrification Program: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, S.; Yin, H.; Kline, D. M.

2006-08-01

This paper describes a joint effort of the Institute for Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IEE), and the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to support China's rural electrification program. This project developed a design tool that provides guidelines both for off-grid renewable energy system designs and for cost-based tariff and finance schemes to support them. This tool was developed to capitalize on lessons learned from the Township Electrification Program that preceded the Village Electrification Program. We describe the methods used to develop the analysis, some indicative results, and the planned use of the tool in themore » Village Electrification Program.« less

An Evaluation System for the Contact Electrification of a Single Microparticle Using Microelectromechanical-Based Actuated Tweezers.

PubMed

Yamaguchi, Daichi

2018-06-05

The image quality of laser and multi-function printers that make use of electrophotography depends on the amount of surface charge generated by contact electrification on the toner particles. However, because it has been impossible to experimentally evaluate such amounts under controlled contact conditions using macroscopic measurements, theoretical elucidation of the contact electrification mechanism has not progressed sufficiently. In the present study, we have developed a system to experimentally evaluate the contact electrification of a single particle using atomic force microscopy (AFM) and nanotweezers (microelectromechanical systems (MEMS)-based actuated tweezers). This system performs, in succession, (i) a contact test that makes use of the nanotweezers and three piezoelectric stages, and (ii) an image force measurement using the AFM cantilever. Using this system, contact electrification was evaluated under controlled conditions, such as the contact number and the indentation depth. In addition, differences in contact electrification due to the amount of external surface additives were investigated. The results reveal that a coating with external additives leads to a decrease in the amount of contact electrification due to a reduction in the contact area with the substrate.

The potential impacts of electric vehicles on air quality in the urban areas of Barcelona and Madrid (Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soret, A.; Guevara, M.; Baldasano, J. M.

2014-12-01

This work analyses the potential air quality improvements resulting from three fleet electrification scenarios (∼13, 26 and 40%) by replacing conventional vehicles with Electric Battery Vehicles (EBVs), Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs). This study has been performed for the cities of Barcelona and Madrid (Spain), where road transport is the primary emission source. In these urban areas, several air quality problems are present, mainly related to NO2 and particulate matter. The WRF-ARW/HERMESv2/CMAQ model system has been applied at high spatial (1 × 1 km2) and temporal (1 h) resolution. The results show that fleet electrification offers a potential for emission abatement, especially related to NOx and CO. Regarding the more ambitious scenario (∼40% fleet electrification), reductions of 11% and 17% of the total NOx emissions are observed in Barcelona and Madrid respectively. These emissions reductions involve air quality improvements in NO2 maximum hourly values up to 16%: reductions up to 30 and 35 μg m-3 in Barcelona and Madrid, respectively. Furthermore, an additional scenario has been defined considering electric generation emissions associated with EBVs and PHEVs charging from a combined-cycle power plant. These charging emissions would produce slight NO2 increases in the downwind areas of <3 μg m-3. Thus, fleet electrification would improve urban air quality even when considering emissions associated with charging electric vehicles. However, two further points should be considered. First, fleet electrification cannot be considered a unique solution, and other management strategies may be defined. This is especially important with respect to particulate matter emissions, which are not significantly reduced by fleet electrification (<5%) due to the high weight of non-exhaust emissions. Second, a significant introduction of electric vehicles (26-40%) involving all vehicle categories is required to improve urban air quality.

Cost Effectiveness of Research and Development Related to Railroad Electrification in the United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-12-01

The object of this report is to determine the impact of research and development on railroad electrification in the United States. It is presumed that electrification is economically viable and that a prior commitment has been made to electrifying th...

Analysis of alternative pathways for reducing nitrogen oxide emissions.

PubMed

Loughlin, Daniel H; Kaufman, Katherine R; Lenox, Carol S; Hubbell, Bryan J

2015-09-01

Strategies for reducing tropospheric ozone (O3) typically include modifying combustion processes to reduce the formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and applying control devices that remove NOx from the exhaust gases of power plants, industrial sources and vehicles. For portions of the U.S., these traditional controls may not be sufficient to achieve the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone. We apply the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model in a sensitivity analysis to explore whether additional NOx reductions can be achieved through extensive electrification of passenger vehicles, adoption of energy efficiency and conservation measures within buildings, and deployment of wind and solar power in the electric sector. Nationally and for each region of the country, we estimate the NOx implications of these measures. Energy efficiency and renewable electricity are shown to reduce NOx beyond traditional controls. Wide-spread light duty vehicle electrification produces varied results, with NOx increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. However, combining vehicle electrification with renewable electricity reduces NOx in all regions. State governments are charged with developing plans that demonstrate how air quality standards will be met and maintained. The results presented here provide an indication of the national and regional NOx reductions available beyond traditional controls via extensive adoption of energy efficiency, renewable electricity, and vehicle electrification.

Electrification Futures Study Technology Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin; Steinberg, Daniel

This data supplements the "Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050" report. The data included here consist of the cost and performance estimates for electric end-use technologies developed for the three sensitivity cases in the Electrification Futures Study: Slow Advancement, Moderate Advancement, and Rapid Advancement.

Electrification: Connecting the Pieces in the Broader View

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gearhart, Chris C

Presented at the SELECT Annual Meeting on September 26, 2017, this PowerPoint presentation gives an overview of connectivity and automation and how these new technologies will impact society in both known and unknown ways. Electrification challenges and opportunities are also outlined as without electrification, connectivity and automation will just magnify the negative health, climate and economic problems of the current transportation systems. Electrification can provide benefits while mitigating the negative consequences. And with careful connection of all of the pieces from materials up through controls, a sustainable transportation eco-system is attainable.

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Truck Stop Electrification Site Data

Science.gov Websites

Collection Methods Tools Printable Version Share this resource Send a link to Alternative Fuels Data Center: Truck Stop Electrification Site Data Collection Methods to someone by E-mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: Truck Stop Electrification Site Data Collection Methods on Facebook Tweet about

Electrification Futures Study: A Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an

Science.gov Websites

Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an Electrified U.S. Energy System Electrification Futures Study: A Technical Evaluation of the Impacts of an Electrified U.S. Energy System Illustration showing various impacts of widespread electrification in the United States. In addition to NREL, the research team

Alternative Fuels Data Center: New Mexico Utility Sparks Change with Fleet

Science.gov Websites

Electrification New Mexico Utility Sparks Change with Fleet Electrification to someone by E -mail Share Alternative Fuels Data Center: New Mexico Utility Sparks Change with Fleet Electrification on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: New Mexico Utility Sparks Change with Fleet

Electrified atmospheric dust during disturbed weather conditions in the Negev desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Katz, Shai; Yair, Yoav; Price, Colin; Yaniv, Roy

2017-04-01

Dust storms over the Negev Desert in southern Israel are common and become frequent during the spring and autumn, depending on synoptic conditions and local effects. These storms are often accompanied by significant dust electrification, most likely due to saltation and triboelectric processes. We present new atmospheric electrical measurements conducted at the Wise Observatory (WO) in Mizpe-Ramon (30035'N, 34045'E) Israel, during two strong dust storms that occurred over the Negev desert on October 27-28th and December 1st, 2016. The first event generated a local gust front due to strong downdrafts from an active Cumulonimbus cloud (known as Haboob). In the second event, a Cyprus Low with strong synoptic-scale winds lifted the local sand particles at the Negev and lowered the visibility. During the passage of the dust storms above our instruments, very large fluctuations in the electric field (Ez) and current density (Jz) were measured. In the October Haboob event, the Ez data showed a superposition of signatures generated by lightning and by the dust aloft. The Ez values fluctuated between +123 to +2144 and -15336 to +19788 V m-1 for several hour-long episodes. The respective values of the vertical current density [Jz] were between -18 and +18 pA m-2. During the December dust storm we measured Ez values up to +4000 V m-1 lasting for 3.5 hours and another episode with values up to +668 V m-1 lasting for approximately 1.5 hours. These values were accompanied by changes in the Jz values between -16.5 and +17 pA m-2. The electric field and current density variability and amplitude are significantly different from the average fair-weather values measured at the Wise Observatory (Yaniv et al., 2016), which are 180 V m-1 and 2 pA m-1. We will show that these differences in the electrical behavior between these two dust storms may be related to the speed and direction of the wind near the surface.

Electrification of buildings and industry in the United States: Drivers, barriers, prospects, and policy approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Deason, Jeff; Wei, Max; Leventis, Greg

The report offers several use cases and case studies of electrification in buildings and industry: air source heat pumps for space heating, zero net energy buildings, electric water heaters and demand response, electric arc furnaces, and electric boilers. Finally, the report suggests several areas for further research to better understand and advance beneficial electrification.

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, Lawrence; Koshak, William; Petersen, Harold; Schultz, Elise; Schultz, Chris; Matthee, Retha; Bain, Lamont

2012-01-01

The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007 (non-severe multi-cell) over Northern Alabama. The LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby Doppler radar network, including the UA Huntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band, polarimetric). The LNOM estimated SAD and lightning NOx production profiles are placed in the context of radar derived profiles of vertical motion, precipitation types and amounts. Finally, these analyses are used to determine if storm integrated flash channel extent is as well correlated to volumetric updraft and precipitation ice characteristics in the mixed phase region as flash rate for these individual convective cells.

Effect of School Electrification on Learning Outcomes: A Subnational Level Analysis of Students' Pass Rate in English and Mathematics in Ghana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adamba, Clement

2018-01-01

The paper used district level students' pass rate in a nationally conducted basic education certification examination to assess the effect of school electrification on learning outcomes. The results show that school electrification in addition to the traditional school-level inputs, such as class size, pupil-teacher ratio, ratio of core textbook…

Connective power: Solar electrification and social change in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, Arne Edward

Household solar photovoltaic systems have emerged as a key alternative to grid-based rural electrification in many developing countries. This may seem a victory for appropriate technology advocates, but my research indicates that the social significance of solar electrification in Kenya, which is among the largest developing country solar markets per capita, is far removed from the classic "small is beautiful" neo-populist vision of building small-scale alternatives to global capitalism. Instead, solar electrification is more closely connected to neo-liberal goals of market-based service provision and economic integration. In this study I combine quantitative and qualitative methods, including surveys, intra-household energy allocation studies, and historical analysis, to analyze the social significance of solar electrification in Kenya. I find that "connective" applications, including television, radio, and cellphones, are centrally important. Television is especially notable; the expansion of TV broadcasting to rural areas was a key condition for solar market development. Solar electricity is also used for lighting. In Kenya, income and work related uses of solar lighting are modest, while education uses are more significant. However, in many households, especially those with small systems, intra-household dynamics constrain key social uses (e.g. children's studying), as the energy is allocated to other uses. Social use patterns combine with access dynamics in Kenya's unsubsidized market to shape the social significance of solar electrification. Solar ownership is dominated by the rural upper and middle classes. Thus, productivity and education uses make small contributions to differentiation and middle class formation. Additionally, solar electrification's role in supporting rural television and radio use improves business advertisers' ability to expand consumer goods markets. These findings link solar electrification to important processes of rural development and social change. Mainstream policy makers have sought to expand the market through credit-based sales. However, my analysis indicates that, without subsidies, credit-based sales are unlikely to deepen access beyond levels established in the existing cash market. Thus, while solar electrification may potentially contribute to sustainable development, concerns about equity and other social issues indicate a need for careful attention to the implications of policy choices and processes that influence the social use possibilities of the technology.

A new method of power load prediction in electrification railway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dun, Xiaohong

2018-04-01

Aiming at the character of electrification railway, the paper mainly studies the problem of load prediction in electrification railway. After the preprocessing of data, and the similar days are separated on the basis of its statistical characteristics. Meanwhile the accuracy of different methods is analyzed. The paper provides a new thought of prediction and a new method of accuracy of judgment for the load prediction of power system.

Charging of multiple interacting particles by contact electrification.

PubMed

Soh, Siowling; Liu, Helena; Cademartiri, Rebecca; Yoon, Hyo Jae; Whitesides, George M

2014-09-24

Many processes involve the movement of a disordered collection of small particles (e.g., powders, grain, dust, and granular foods). These particles move chaotically, interact randomly among themselves, and gain electrical charge by contact electrification. Understanding the mechanisms of contact electrification of multiple interacting particles has been challenging, in part due to the complex movement and interactions of the particles. To examine the processes contributing to contact electrification at the level of single particles, a system was constructed in which an array of millimeter-sized polymeric beads of different materials were agitated on a dish. The dish was filled almost completely with beads, such that beads did not exchange positions. At the same time, during agitation, there was sufficient space for collisions with neighboring beads. The charge of the beads was measured individually after agitation. Results of systematic variations in the organization and composition of the interacting beads showed that three mechanisms determined the steady-state charge of the beads: (i) contact electrification (charging of beads of different materials), (ii) contact de-electrification (discharging of beads of the same charge polarity to the atmosphere), and (iii) a long-range influence across beads not in contact with one another (occurring, plausibly, by diffusion of charge from a bead with a higher charge to a bead with a lower charge of the same polarity).

Structure of the disturbed region of the atmosphere after the nuclear explosion in Hiroshima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shcherbin, M. D.; Pavlyukov, K. V.; Salo, A. A.; Pertsev, S. F.; Rikunov, A. V.

2013-09-01

An attempt is undertaken to describe the development of the disturbed region of the atmosphere caused by the nuclear explosion over Hiroshima on August 6, 1945. Numerical simulation of the phenomenon is performed using the dynamic equations for a nonconducting inviscid gas taking into account the combustion of urban buildings, phase changes of water, electrification of ice particles, and removal of soot particles. The results of the numerical calculation of the development of the disturbed region indicate heavy rainfall, the formation of a storm cloud with lightning discharges, removal of soot particles, and the formation of vertical vortices. The temporal sequence of these meteorological phenomena is consistent with the data of observations. Because of the assumptions and approximations used in solving the problem, the results are of qualitative nature. Refinement of the results can be obtained by a more detailed study of the approximate initial and boundary conditions of the problem.

Lightning Enhancement Over Major Shipping Lanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thornton, J. A.; Holzworth, R. H., II; Virts, K.; Mitchell, T. P.

2017-12-01

Using twelve years of high resolution global lightning stroke data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN), we show that lightning density is enhanced by up to a factor of two directly over shipping lanes in the northeastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea as compared to adjacent areas with similar climatological characteristics. The lightning enhancement is most prominent during the convectively active season, November-April for the Indian Ocean and April - December in the South China Sea, and has been detectable from at least 2005 to the present. We hypothesize that emissions of aerosol particles and precursors by maritime vessel traffic leads to a microphysical enhancement of convection and storm electrification in the region of the shipping lanes. These persistent localized anthropogenic perturbations to otherwise clean regions are a unique opportunity to more thoroughly understand the sensitivity of maritime deep convection and lightning to aerosol particles.

A multi-scalar investigation of development and health in Ethiopia: household electrification in a agriculturally dependent and climate sensitive country

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grace, K.; Brown, M. E.; Bakhtsiyarava, M.

2017-12-01

In poor countries, household electricity status is often used as a measure of household resources. Often, the primary use of the variable is to sort the poorest households - those without electricity - from the better-off households - those with electricity. Expanding electrification is also part of a suite of goals developed by health and development and reflected in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and now the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. Therefore, this measure is also used in a macro-level description of a country to describe a country's process of urbanization or development. As countries, electrify and expand access to electrification to the poorest households and communities, understanding the role and impact of electrification on the health and development of these communities is necessary. In other words, moving beyond the binomial categorization of a household as electrified or not electrified and instead investigating the ways that electrification impacts communities, households and individuals is a necessary component of understanding contemporary patterns of health and development in the world's poorest countries. The goal of this research is to examine the linkages between health and development using multi-scalar, remotely-sensed measures of electrification in Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world. For this study we use spatially referenced Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data for Ethiopia from 2000 and 2005. In addition to measures of electrification gathered from the DHS, we also use time-varying satellite based measure of electrification collected by the US Department of Defense. Also, because many rural Ethiopians are dependent on small-scale, rainfed agriculture and therefore highly vulnerable to climate shocks and food insecurity, any investigation of health and development must also consider the local food production context. To support the analysis and provide information on broader measures of food insecurity and wellbeing, we also use livelihood zone data from the Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS NET), as well as remotely sensed based estimates of rainfall and temperature.

Electrification Futures Study: End-Use Electric Technology Cost and Performance Projections through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jadun, Paige; McMillan, Colin; Steinberg, Daniel

This report is the first in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multiyear research project to explore widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. More specifically, the EFS is designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of widespread electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multiyear duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be publishedmore » as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe.« less

Universal access to electricity in Burkina Faso: scaling-up renewable energy technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moner-Girona, M.; Bódis, K.; Huld, T.; Kougias, I.; Szabó, S.

2016-08-01

This paper describes the status quo of the power sector in Burkina Faso, its limitations, and develops a new methodology that through spatial analysis processes with the aim to provide a possible pathway for universal electricity access. Following the SE4All initiative approach, it recommends the more extensive use of distributed renewable energy systems to increase access to electricity on an accelerated timeline. Less than 5% of the rural population in Burkina Faso have currently access to electricity and supply is lacking at many social structures such as schools and hospitals. Energy access achievements in Burkina Faso are still very modest. According to the latest SE4All Global Tracking Framework (2015), the access to electricity annual growth rate in Burkina Faso from 2010 to 2012 is 0%. The rural electrification strategy for Burkina Faso is scattered in several electricity sector development policies: there is a need of defining a concrete action plan. Planning and coordination between grid extension and the off-grid electrification programme is essential to reach a long-term sustainable energy model and prevent high avoidable infrastructure investments. This paper goes into details on the methodology and findings of the developed Geographic Information Systems tool. The aim of the dynamic planning tool is to provide support to the national government and development partners to define an alternative electrification plan. Burkina Faso proves to be paradigm case for the methodology as its national policy for electrification is still dominated by grid extension and the government subsidising fossil fuel electricity production. However, the results of our analysis suggest that the current grid extension is becoming inefficient and unsustainable in order to reach the national energy access targets. The results also suggest that Burkina Faso’s rural electrification strategy should be driven local renewable resources to power distributed mini-grids. We find that this approach would connect more people to power more quickly, and would reduce fossil fuel use that would otherwise be necessary for grid extension options.

Les cooperatives et l'electrification rurale du Quebec, 1945--1964

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorion, Marie-Josee

Cette these est consacree a l'histoire de l'electrification rurale du Quebec, et, plus particulierement, a l'histoire des cooperatives d'electricite. Fondees par vagues successives a partir de 1945, les cooperatives rurales d'electricite ont ete actives dans plusieurs regions du Quebec et elles ont electrifie une partie significative des zones rurales. Afin de comprendre le contexte de la creation des cooperatives d'electricite, notre these debute (premiere partie) par une analyse du climat sociopolitique des annees precedant la naissance du systeme cooperatif d'electrification rurale. Nous y voyons de quelle facon l'electrification rurale devient progressivement, a partir de la fin des annees 1920, une question d'actualite a laquelle les divers gouvernements qui se succedent tentent de trouver une solution, sans engager---ou si peu---les fonds de l'Etat. En ce sens, la premiere etatisation et la mise sur pied d'Hydro-Quebec, en 1944, marquent une rupture quant au mode d'action privilegie jusque-la. La nouvelle societe d'Etat se voit cependant retirer son mandat d'electrifier le monde rural un an apres sa fondation, car le gouvernement Duplessis, de retour au pouvoir, prefere mettre en place son propre modele d'electrification rurale. Ce systeme repose sur des cooperatives d'electricite, soutenues par un organisme public, l'Office de l'electrification rurale (OER). L'OER suscite de grandes attentes de la part des ruraux et c'est par centaines qu'ils se manifestent. Cet engouement pour les cooperatives complique la tache de l'OER, qui doit superviser de nouvelles societes tout en assurant sa propre organisation. Malgre des hesitations et quelques delais introduits par un manque de connaissances techniques et de personnel qualifie, les commissaires de l'OER se revelent perspicaces et parviennent a mettre sur pied un systeme cooperatif d'electrification rurale qui produit des resultats rapides. Il leur faudra cependant compter sur l'aide des autres acteurs engages dans l'electrification, les organismes publics et les compagnies privees d'electricite. Cette periode de demarrage et d'organisation, traitee dans la deuxieme partie de la these, se termine en 1947-48, au moment ou l'OER et les cooperatives raffermissent leur maitrise du systeme cooperatif d'electrification rurale. Les annees 1948 a 1955 (troisieme partie de these) correspondent a une periode de croissance pour le mouvement cooperatif. Cette partie scrute ainsi le developpement des cooperatives, les vastes chantiers de construction et l'injection de millions de dollars dans l'electrification rurale. Cette troisieme partie prend egalement acte des premiers signes que quelque chose ne va pas si bien dans le monde cooperatif. Nous y verrons egalement les ruraux a l'oeuvre: comme membres, d'abord, mais aussi en tant que benevoles, puis a l'emploi des cooperatives. La quatrieme et derniere partie, les annees 1956 a 1964, aborde les changements majeurs qui ont cours dans l'univers cooperatif; il s'agit d'une ere nouvelle et difficile pour le mouvement cooperatif, dont les reseaux paraissent inadaptes aux changements de profil de la consommation d'electricite des usagers. L'OER sent alors le besoin de raffermir son controle des cooperatives, car il pressent les problemes et les defis auxquels elles auront a faire face. Notre etude se termine par l'acquisition des cooperatives par Hydro-Quebec, en 1963-64. Fondee sur des sources riches et variees, notre demarche propose un eclairage inedit sur une dimension importante de l'histoire de l'electricite au Quebec. Elle permet, ce faisant, de saisir les rouages et l'action de l'Etat sous un angle particulier, avant sa profonde transformation amorcee au cours des annees 1960. De meme, elle apporte quelques cles nouvelles pour une meilleure comprehension de la dynamique des milieux ruraux de cette periode.

Correlating the electrification of volcanic plumes with ashfall textures at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Cassandra M.; Van Eaton, Alexa R.; Charbonnier, Sylvain; McNutt, Stephen R.; Behnke, Sonja A.; Thomas, Ronald J.; Edens, Harald E.; Thompson, Glenn

2018-06-01

Volcanic lightning detection has become a useful resource for monitoring remote, under-instrumented volcanoes. Previous studies have shown that the behavior of volcanic plume electrification responds to changes in the eruptive processes and products. However, there has not yet been a study to quantify the links between ash textures and plume electrification during an actively monitored eruption. In this study, we examine a sequence of vulcanian eruptions from Sakurajima Volcano in Japan to compare ash textural properties (grain size, shape, componentry, and groundmass crystallinity) to plume electrification using a lightning mapping array and other monitoring data. We show that the presence of the continual radio frequency (CRF) signal is more likely to occur during eruptions that produce large seismic amplitudes (>7 μm) and glass-rich volcanic ash with more equant particle shapes. We show that CRF is generated during energetic, impulsive eruptions, where charge buildup is enhanced by secondary fragmentation (milling) as particles travel out of the conduit and into the gas-thrust region of the plume. We show that the CRF signal is influenced by a different electrification process than later volcanic lightning. By using volcanic CRF and lightning to better understand the eruptive event and its products these key observations will help the monitoring community better utilize volcanic electrification as a method for monitoring and understanding ongoing explosive eruptions.

Navajo Electrification Demonstraiton Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larry Ahasteen, Project Manager

2006-07-17

This is a final technical report required by DOE for the Navajo Electrification Demonstration Program, This report covers the electric line extension project for Navajo families that currently without electric power.

FY2017 Electrification Annual Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

During fiscal year 2017 (FY 2017), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) funded early stage research & development (R&D) projects that address Batteries and Electrification of the U.S. transportation sector. The VTO Electrification Sub-Program is composed of Electric Drive Technologies, and Grid Integration activities. The Electric Drive Technologies group conducts R&D projects that advance Electric Motors and Power Electronics technologies. The Grid and Charging Infrastructure group conducts R&D projects that advance Grid Modernization and Electric Vehicle Charging technologies. This document presents a brief overview of the Electrification Sub-Program and progress reports for its R&D projects. Eachmore » of the progress reports provide a project overview and highlights of the technical results that were accomplished in FY 2017.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Steinberg, Daniel; Bielen, Dave; Eichman, Josh

Electrification of end-use services in the transportation, buildings, and industrial sectors coupled with decarbonization of electricity generation has been identified as one of the key pathways to achieving a low-carbon future in the United States. By lowering the carbon intensity of the electricity generation and substituting electricity for higher-emissions fossil fuels in end-use sectors, significant reductions in carbon dioxide emissions can be achieved. This report describes a preliminary analysis that examines the potential impacts of widespread electrification on the U.S. energy sector. We develop a set of exploratory scenarios under which electrification is aggressively pursued across all end-use sectors andmore » examine the impacts of achieving these electrification levels on electricity load patterns, total fossil energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and the evolution of the U.S. power system.« less

Incubating Innovation for Rural Electrification. Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

In June, the team held a workshop on ''Low Carbon Sustainable Rural Electrification'' in Salima, Malawi. Co-organized with the Government of Malawi's Department of Energy, this event gathered participants from the energy, telecom, non-profit, banking sectors as well as from governmental and international agencies to discuss the potential development of private led off-grid electrification in Malawi where only 9% of the population has currently access to electricity. A very active participation provided us with insightful feedback and valuable recommendations.

Assessing the Future Vehicle Fleet Electrification: The Impacts on Regional and Urban Air Quality.

PubMed

Ke, Wenwei; Zhang, Shaojun; Wu, Ye; Zhao, Bin; Wang, Shuxiao; Hao, Jiming

2017-01-17

There have been significant advancements in electric vehicles (EVs) in recent years. However, the different changing patterns in emissions at upstream and on-road stages and complex atmospheric chemistry of pollutants lead to uncertainty in the air quality benefits from fleet electrification. This study considers the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in China to investigate whether EVs can improve future air quality. The Community Multiscale Air Quality model enhanced by the two-dimensional volatility basis set module is applied to simulate the temporally, spatially, and chemically resolved changes in PM 2.5 concentrations and the changes of other pollutants from fleet electrification. A probable scenario (Scenario EV1) with 20% of private light-duty passenger vehicles and 80% of commercial passenger vehicles (e.g., taxis and buses) electrified can reduce average PM 2.5 concentrations by 0.4 to 1.1 μg m -3 during four representative months for all urban areas of YRD in 2030. The seasonal distinctions of the air quality impacts with respect to concentration reductions in key aerosol components are also identified. For example, the PM 2.5 reduction in January is mainly attributed to the nitrate reduction, whereas the secondary organic aerosol reduction is another essential contributor in August. EVs can also effectively assist in mitigating NO 2 concentrations, which would gain greater reductions for traffic-dense urban areas (e.g., Shanghai). This paper reveals that the fleet electrification in the YRD region could generally play a positive role in improving regional and urban air quality.

Earth Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-08-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. The ACES lightning study used the Altus II twin turbo uninhabited aerial vehicle, built by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. of San Diego. The Altus II was chosen for its slow flight speed of 75 to 100 knots (80 to 115 mph), long endurance, and high-altitude flight (up to 65,000 feet). These qualities gave the Altus II the ability to fly near and around thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be conducted over the entire life cycle of storms. The vehicle has a wing span of 55 feet and a payload capacity of over 300 lbs. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Earth Science

NASA Image and Video Library

2002-08-01

A NASA team studying the causes of electrical storms and their effects on our home planet achieved a milestone on August 21, 2002, completing the study's longest-duration research flight and monitoring four thunderstorms in succession. Based at the Naval Air Station Key West, Florida, researchers with the Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES) used the Altus II remotely-piloted aircraft to study thunderstorms in the Atlantic Ocean off Key West and the west of the Everglades. The ACES lightning study used the Altus II twin turbo uninhabited aerial vehicle, built by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. of San Diego. The Altus II was chosen for its slow flight speed of 75 to 100 knots (80 to 115 mph), long endurance, and high-altitude flight (up to 65,000 feet). These qualities gave the Altus II the ability to fly near and around thunderstorms for long periods of time, allowing investigations to be to be conducted over the entire life cycle of storms. The vehicle has a wing span of 55 feet and a payload capacity of over 300 lbs. With dual goals of gathering weather data safely and testing the adaptability of the uninhabited aircraft, the ACES study is a collaboration among the Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, NASA,s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, Pernsylvania State University in University Park, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc.

Lunar Surface Charging during Solar Energetic Particle Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halekas, Jasper S.; Delory, G. T.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Lin, R. P.; Fillingim, M. O.; Brain, D. A.; Lee, C. O.; Stubbs, T. J.; Farrell, W. M.; Hudson, M. K.

2006-09-01

The surface of the Moon, not protected by any substantial atmosphere, is directly exposed to the impact of both solar UV and solar wind plasma and energetic particles. This creates a complex lunar electrostatic environment, with the surface typically charging slightly positive in sunlight, and negative in shadow. Observations from the Apollo era and theoretical considerations strongly suggest that surface charging leads to dust electrification and transport, posing a potentially significant hazard for exploration. The most significant charging effects should occur when the Moon is exposed to high-temperature plasmas like those encountered in the terrestrial plasmasheet or in solar storms. We now present evidence for kilovolt-scale negative charging of the shadowed lunar surface during solar energetic particle (SEP) events, utilizing data from the Lunar Prospector Electron Reflectometer (LP ER). We find that SEP events are associated with the most extreme lunar surface charging observed during the LP mission - rivaled only by previously reported charging during traversals of the terrestrial plasmasheet. The largest charging event observed by LP is a 4 kV negative surface potential (as compared to typical values of V) during a SEP event in May 1998. We characterize lunar surface charging during several SEP events, and compare to energetic particle measurements from ACE, Wind, and SOHO in order to determine the relationship between SEP events and extreme lunar surface charging. Space weather events are already considered by NASA to be a significant hazard to lunar exploration, due to high-energy ionizing radiation. Our observations demonstrate that plasma interactions with the lunar surface during SEP events, causing extreme surface charging and potentially significant dust electrification and transport, represent an additional hazard associated with space weather.

Laboratory studies of aerosol electrification and experimental evidence for electrical breakdown at different scales.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alois, Stefano; Merrison, Jonathan; Iversen, Jens Jacob; Sesterhenn, Joern

2017-04-01

Contact electrification between different particles size/material can lead to electric field generation high enough to produce electrical breakdown. Experimental studies of solid aerosol contact electrification (Alois et al., 2016) has shown various electrical breakdown phenomena; these range from field emission at the contact site (nm-scale) limiting particle surface charge concentration, to visible electrical discharges (cm-scale) observed both with the use of an electrometer and high-speed camera. In these experiments micron-size particles are injected into a low-pressure chamber, where they are deviated by an applied electric field. A laser Doppler velocimeter allows the simultaneous determination of particle size and charge of single grains. Results have shown an almost constant surface charge concentration, which is likely to be due to charge limitation by field emission at the contact site between particle and injector. In a second measurement technique, the electrically isolated injector tube (i.e. a Faraday cage) is connected to an oscilloscope and synchronised to a high speed camera filming the injection. Here the electrification of a large cloud of particles can be quantified and discharging effects studied. This study advances our understanding on the physical processes leading to electrification and electrical breakdown mechanisms.

Electrification pathways for Kenya-linking spatial electrification analysis and medium to long term energy planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moksnes, Nandi; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark

2017-09-01

In September 2015 UN announced 17 Sustainable Development goals (SDG) from which goal number 7 envisions universal access to modern energy services for all by 2030. In Kenya only about 46% of the population currently has access to electricity. This paper analyses hypothetical scenarios, and selected implications, investigating pathways that would allow the country to reach its electrification targets by 2030. Two modelling tools were used for the purposes of this study, namely OnSSET and OSeMOSYS. The tools were soft-linked in order to capture both the spatial and temporal dynamics of their nature. Two electricity demand scenarios were developed representing low and high end user consumption goals respectively. Indicatively, results show that geothermal, coal, hydro and natural gas would consist the optimal energy mix for the centralized national grid. However, in the case of the low demand scenario a high penetration of stand-alone systems is evident in the country, reaching out to approximately 47% of the electrified population. Increasing end user consumption leads to a shift in the optimal technology mix, with higher penetration of mini-grid technologies and grid extension.

Indonesia solar home systems project for rural electrification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sanghvi, A.P.

1997-12-01

This paper presents, from a financing aspect the broad issues involved in a plan to provide solar home systems (SHS) to provide rural electrification in several areas of rural Indonesia. The paper discusses the approaches being used to provide funding, develop awareness of the technology, and assure the success of the project. The plan involves the use of grant money to help with some of the initial costs of such systems, and thereby to encourage local financing on a terms rather than cash basis. There are needs for market development, and development of a business structure in the country tomore » support this type of technology. Provided this plan can succeed, it may serve as a model for further efforts.« less

Greenhouse gas implications of fleet electrification based on big data-informed individual travel patterns.

PubMed

Cai, Hua; Xu, Ming

2013-08-20

Environmental implications of fleet electrification highly depend on the adoption and utilization of electric vehicles at the individual level. Past research has been constrained by using aggregated data to assume all vehicles with the same travel pattern as the aggregated average. This neglects the inherent heterogeneity of individual travel behaviors and may lead to unrealistic estimation of environmental impacts of fleet electrification. Using "big data" mining techniques, this research examines real-time vehicle trajectory data for 10,375 taxis in Beijing in one week to characterize the travel patterns of individual taxis. We then evaluate the impact of adopting plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in the taxi fleet on life cycle greenhouse gas emissions based on the characterized individual travel patterns. The results indicate that 1) the largest gasoline displacement (1.1 million gallons per year) can be achieved by adopting PHEVs with modest electric range (approximately 80 miles) with current battery cost, limited public charging infrastructure, and no government subsidy; 2) reducing battery cost has the largest impact on increasing the electrification rate of vehicle mileage traveled (VMT), thus increasing gasoline displacement, followed by diversified charging opportunities; 3) government subsidies can be more effective to increase the VMT electrification rate and gasoline displacement if targeted to PHEVs with modest electric ranges (80 to 120 miles); and 4) while taxi fleet electrification can increase greenhouse gas emissions by up to 115 kiloton CO2-eq per year with the current grid in Beijing, emission reduction of up to 36.5 kiloton CO2-eq per year can be achieved if the fuel cycle emission factor of electricity can be reduced to 168.7 g/km. Although the results are based on a specific public fleet, this study demonstrates the benefit of using large-scale individual-based trajectory data (big data) to better understand environmental implications of fleet electrification and inform better decision making.

Electrification Opportunities in the Transportation Sector and Impact of Residential Charging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Muratori, Matteo

This presentation provides an overview of electrification opportunities in the transportation sector and present results of a study assessing the impact of residential charging on residential power demand and electric power distribution infrastructure.

EMF Monitoring on Amtrak's Northeast Corridor : Post-Electrification Measurement and Analysis

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-10-01

This survey of electromagnetic fields (EMF) and radiation (EMR) due to the electrification infrastructure and operations of Amtrak Acela trains on the Northeast Corridor from New Haven, CT, to Boston, MA, was performed by Electric Research & Manageme...

Global rural electrification - A different race initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, Raymond S.

1991-10-01

The paper considers global rural electrification based on electric power from power stations, built in geosynchronous orbit out of lunar materials. These materials are distributed to individual villages and rural electric cooperatives via microwaves for a cost of about 6-45 cents per kilowatt-hour. Power would be available in modular increments of 25-100 kilowatts with an average capital cost as low as $5000 per kilowatt. The global rural electrification program is aimed at providing electric power from space at competitive costs, relative to current costs, to rural and agricultural areas and diverting resources from weapons development to infrastructure development.

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Draft Environmental Impact Statement. Volume 1.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-09-01

The impacts of extending electrification on the National Railroad Passenger Corporation's (Amtrak) Northeast Corridor (NEC) from New Haven, Connecticut to Boston, Massachusetts are of direct concern to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). To im...

Railroad Electrification Activity in North America--A Status Report : 1976-1978

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1980-01-01

In view of the increased activity and interest in railroad electrification in North America, it is appropriate to provide a continuing overview of activities of interest to the railroad industry and the U.S. Government. Major activities completed or ...

40 CFR 280.95 - Financial test of self-insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Energy Information Administration, or the Rural Electrification Administration; or (ii) Report annually.... Securities and Exchange Commission, the Energy Information Administration or the Rural Electrification... public accountant stating that: (i) He has compared the data that the letter form the chief financial...

40 CFR 280.95 - Financial test of self-insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Energy Information Administration, or the Rural Electrification Administration; or (ii) Report annually.... Securities and Exchange Commission, the Energy Information Administration or the Rural Electrification... public accountant stating that: (i) He has compared the data that the letter form the chief financial...

40 CFR 280.95 - Financial test of self-insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Energy Information Administration, or the Rural Electrification Administration; or (ii) Report annually.... Securities and Exchange Commission, the Energy Information Administration or the Rural Electrification... public accountant stating that: (i) He has compared the data that the letter form the chief financial...

40 CFR 280.95 - Financial test of self-insurance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Energy Information Administration, or the Rural Electrification Administration; or (ii) Report annually.... Securities and Exchange Commission, the Energy Information Administration or the Rural Electrification... public accountant stating that: (i) He has compared the data that the letter form the chief financial...

The power of light: socio-economic and environmental implications of a rural electrification program in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges da Silveira Bezerra, Paula; Ludovique Callegari, Camila; Ribas, Aline; Lucena, André F. P.; Portugal-Pereira, Joana; Koberle, Alexandre; Szklo, Alexandre; Schaeffer, Roberto

2017-09-01

Universal access to electricity is deemed critical for improving living standards and indispensable for eradicating poverty and achieving sustainable development. In 2003, the ‘Luz para Todos’ (LpT—Light for All) program was launched aiming to universalize access to electricity in Brazil. The program focused on rural and isolated areas, also targeting to bring development to those regions along with electrification. This paper evaluates the results of the LpT program in improving socio-economic development in the poorest regions of Brazil. After an initial qualitative analysis, an empirical quantitative assessment of the influence of increased electrification rates on the components of the Human Development Index (HDI) is performed. The empirical results of this study showed that electrification had a positive influence on all dimensions of the HDI, with the education component having the strongest effect. Although complementary policies were needed to achieve this, results show that electricity access is a major requirement to improve quality of life.

Integration of net zero energy building with smart grid to improve regional electrification ratio towards sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latief, Yusuf; Berawi, Mohammed Ali; Supriadi, Leni; Bintang Koesalamwardi, Ario; Petroceany, Jade; Herzanita, Ayu

2017-12-01

Indonesia is currently encouraging its physical, social and economy development. Physical development for economic development have to be supported by energy availability. For Indonesia, 90% of electrification ratio is still become an important task that has to be completed by the Government. However, the effort to increase electrification can become an environmental problem if it’s done with BAU scenario. The by-product of electric generation is the GHG, which increasing every year since 2006 from various sectors i.e. industry, housing, commercial, transportation, and energy. Net Zero Energy Building (NZEB) is an energy efficient building which can produce energy independently from clean and renewable sources. The energy that is generated by NZEB can be used for the building itself, and can be exported to the central grid. The integration of NZEB and Smart Grid can solve today’s issue on electrification ratio. Literature study will find benchmarks which can be applied in Indonesia along with possible obstacles in applying this technology.

Power games: The political use of solar technology in northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, Donna Lisa

This dissertation politicises and historically situates the transfer of an environmental technology to a less developed country, a transfer that has occurred under the rubric of sustainable development. The case study explores the social and political context of two solar battery charging station programmes selected to provide electrification in rural Northern Thailand beginning in the 1980s. It places these rural electrification programmes in the context of previous rural electrification policies in northern Thailand in the 1960s and 1970s which were driven by an explicitly state-serving agenda: an agenda that aimed to expand the centralised state's ability to pacify and control remote areas of the country. However, it is clear that the technology and implementation strategies selected for the new electrification programmes could not fulfil their community-serving objectives; furthermore, these systems could not meet the actual energy needs of the programmes' intended beneficiaries. I argue that we need to consider whether the objectives that motivated previous rural electrification programmes may be continuing to play a role in the promotion of these new rural electrification programmes, a motivation that would contradict the philosophy behind the choice of the solar battery charging stations. Specifically, I show how the new rural electrification strategy has been de-politicised through its framing within the sustainable development discourses. This thesis highlights how the rush to promote environmental technologies through the rubric of sustainable development may limit a proper consideration of the social and political dynamics that motivated these decisions, resulting in the uncritical justification of technology selection. Scholars have critiqued the social ramifications of, and the political motivations behind, earlier technocentric rural development strategies, showing how they can exacerbate social inequalities. I argue that in this situation, the alleged environmental benefits of using an environmental technology in a sustainable development programme may have served to shelter it from similar critique. The assessment reveals and emphasises the need to query the validity of the objectives motivating other technocentric rural development programmes that transfer environmental technologies as part of the practice of sustainable development.

Assessing the Impacts of Rural Electrification in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Case of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aragaw, Mekonnen Lulie

This study links rural electrification and the transition to modern energy services with poverty reduction and rural development in Ethiopia. Benefits of rural electrification in reducing poverty and accelerating rural development in low-income developing countries have been insufficiently researched. This study analyses available empirical evidence at a local level and examines how electricity access translates into productive use beyond powering radios and lighting. A survey of 336 households was conducted in Northern Ethiopia on impacts of electrification on four rural towns with varying number of years of access to electricity. Evidence at household and community levels shows that access to electricity was followed by an increase in household connectivity rate, and slow transition to modern energy services based on level of household income and number of years of a household's connection to electricity services. The pace of transition to modern energy services was slow, and household energy poverty and dependence on biomass fuels continued in most rural towns, having little impact on improved environmental management practices. Improvement in rural livelihood, poverty reduction, and delivery of public services was highest for those with more years of access to electricity, and higher income households. The fact that impacts of RE depend on number of years of a household's electricity connection implies gradual improvements rather than immediate benefits after connection. In the short-term, households improved their quality of life through better lighting and reduced indoor-air pollution. In the medium and longer-term, households and communities diversified their income and received improved public services such as education, health, and potable water. Further benefits were wider off-farm and non-farm employment, increased rural markets, and improved environment for rural development. Very poor households benefited least, while those better-off utilized opportunities created through rural electrification. Though necessary for development, rural electrification alone is insufficient, and requires strong government commitment and political will to invest in public services and infrastructure, and encourage private sector participation. Keywords: rural electrification, modern energy services, Sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia, energy transition, Poverty Reduction, Rural Development.

Brightness Rural Electrification Program: Renewable Energy in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

2004-04-01

Fact sheet describes China's New Brightness Rural Electrification Program to provide electricity for 23 million people in remote areas of China using renewable energy such as wind energy and solar power (photovoltaics). Targets, results, and progress are described. Regions targeted are Inner Mongolia, Tibet, and Gansu.

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Draft Environmental Impact Statement/Report. Volume 3.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-10-01

This document is the final environmental impact statement and final environmental impact report (FEIS/R) on the proposal by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to complete the electrification of the Northeast Corridor main line by ex...

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Final Environmental Impact Report : Supplement

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-02-01

This document is a supplement to the final environmental impact report (FEIR) published in October 1994 on the proposal by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to complete the electrification of the Northeast Corridor main line by ext...

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Draft Environmental Impact Statement/Report. Volume II: Land use and Regulated Areas

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-09-01

The impacts of extending electrification on the National Railroad Passenger Corporation's (Amtrak) Northeast Corridor (NEC) from New Haven, Connecticut to Boston, Massachusetts are of direct concern to the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). To im...

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Final Environmental Statement/Report : v. 2. Technical Studies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-31

This document is the final environmental impact statement and final environmental impact report (FEIS/R) on the proposal by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to complete the electrification of the Northeast Corridor main line by ex...

Hybrid Environmental Control System Integrated Modeling Trade Study Analysis for Commercial Aviation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parrilla, Javier

Current industry trends demonstrate aircraft electrification will be part of future platforms in order to achieve higher levels of efficiency in various vehicle level sub-systems. However electrification requires a substantial change in aircraft design that is not suitable for re-winged or re-engined applications as some aircraft manufacturers are opting for today. Thermal limits arise as engine cores progressively get smaller and hotter to improve overall engine efficiency, while legacy systems still demand a substantial amount of pneumatic, hydraulic and electric power extraction. The environmental control system (ECS) provides pressurization, ventilation and air conditioning in commercial aircraft, making it the main heat sink for all aircraft loads with exception of the engine. To mitigate the architecture thermal limits in an efficient manner, the form in which the ECS interacts with the engine will have to be enhanced as to reduce the overall energy consumed and achieve an energy optimized solution. This study examines a tradeoff analysis of an electric ECS by use of a fully integrated Numerical Propulsion Simulation System (NPSS) model that is capable of studying the interaction between the ECS and the engine cycle deck. It was found that a peak solution lays in a hybrid ECS where it utilizes the correct balance between a traditional pneumatic and a fully electric system. This intermediate architecture offers a substantial improvement in aircraft fuel consumptions due to a reduced amount of waste heat and customer bleed in exchange for partial electrification of the air-conditions pack which is a viable option for re-winged applications.

Analysis of In-Route Wireless Charging for the Shuttle System at Zion National Park

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Prohaska, Robert; Konan, Arnaud

System right-sizing is critical to implementation of wireless power transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles (EVs). This study will analyze potential WPT scenarios for the electrification of shuttle buses at Zion National Park utilizing a modelling tool developed by NREL called WPTSim. This tool uses second-by-second speed, location, and road grade data from the conventional shuttles in operation to simulate the incorporation of WPT at fine granularity. Vehicle power and state of charge are simulated over the drive cycle to evaluate potential system designs. The required battery capacity is determined based on the rated power at a variable number of chargingmore » locations. The outcome of this work is an analysis of the design tradeoffs for the electrification of the shuttle fleet with wireless charging versus conventional overnight charging.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cowlin, S.; Heimiller, D.; Bilello, D.

Approximately 1.6 billion people worldwide do not have access to electricity, and roughly 2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass fuels to meet their heating and cooking needs. Lack of access to and use of energy - or energy poverty - has been recognized as a barrier to reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and other targeted efforts to improve health and quality of life. Reducing reliance on traditional biomass can substantially reduce indoor air pollution-related morbidity and mortality; increasing access to lighting and refrigeration can improve educational and economic opportunities. Though targeted electrification efforts have had success within Latinmore » America and East Asia (reaching electrification rates above 85%), sub-Saharan Africa has maintained electrification rates below 25% (IEA 2004).« less

Assessment of the Electrification of the Road Transport Sector on Net System Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, James

As worldwide environmental consciousness grows, electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming more common and despite the incredible potential for emissions reduction, the net emissions of the power system supply side plus the transportation system are dependent on the generation matrix. Current EV charging patterns tend to correspond directly with the peak consumption hours and have the potential to increase demand sharply allowing for only a small penetration of Electric Vehicles. Using the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) data a model is created for vehicle travel patterns using trip chaining. Charging schemes are modeled to include uncontrolled residential, uncontrolled residential/industrial charging, optimized charging and optimized charging with vehicle to grid discharging. A charging profile is then determined based upon the assumption that electric vehicles would directly replace a percentage of standard petroleum-fueled vehicles in a known system. Using the generation profile for the specified region, a unit commitment model is created to establish not only the generation dispatch, but also the net CO2 profile for variable EV penetrations and charging profiles. This model is then used to assess the impact of the electrification of the road transport sector on the system net emissions.

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Final Environmental Impact and Statement/Report and 4(f) Statement v. 1

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-31

This document is the final environmental impact statement and final environmental impact report (FEIS/R) on the proposal by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to complete the electrification of the Northeast Corridor main line by ex...

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Final Environmental Impact Statement/Report : v. 4. Comment Letters and Public Hearing Transcripts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-31

This document is the final environmental impact statement and final environmental impact report (FEIS/R) on the proposal by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to complete the electrification of the Northeast Corridor main line exten...

Design and Implementation of Improved Electronic Load Controller for Self-Excited Induction Generator for Rural Electrification

PubMed Central

Kathirvel, C.; Porkumaran, K.; Jaganathan, S.

2015-01-01

This paper offers an alternative technique, namely, Improved Electronic Load Controller (IELC), which is proposal to improve power quality, maintaining voltage at frequency desired level for rural electrification. The design and development of IELC are considered as microhydroenergy system. The proposed work aims to concentrate on the new schemes for rural electrification with the help of different kinds of hybrid energy systems. The objective of the proposed scheme is to maintain the speed of generation against fluctuating rural demand. The Electronic Load Controller (ELC) is used to connect and disconnect the dump load during the operation of the system, and which absorbs the load when consumer are not in active will enhance the lifestyle of the rural population and improve the living standards. Hydroelectricity is a promising option for electrification of remote villages in India. The conventional methods are not suitable to act as standalone system. Hence, the designing of a proper ELC is essential. The improved electronic load control performance tested with simulation at validated through hardware setup. PMID:26783553

Design and Implementation of Improved Electronic Load Controller for Self-Excited Induction Generator for Rural Electrification.

PubMed

Kathirvel, C; Porkumaran, K; Jaganathan, S

2015-01-01

This paper offers an alternative technique, namely, Improved Electronic Load Controller (IELC), which is proposal to improve power quality, maintaining voltage at frequency desired level for rural electrification. The design and development of IELC are considered as microhydroenergy system. The proposed work aims to concentrate on the new schemes for rural electrification with the help of different kinds of hybrid energy systems. The objective of the proposed scheme is to maintain the speed of generation against fluctuating rural demand. The Electronic Load Controller (ELC) is used to connect and disconnect the dump load during the operation of the system, and which absorbs the load when consumer are not in active will enhance the lifestyle of the rural population and improve the living standards. Hydroelectricity is a promising option for electrification of remote villages in India. The conventional methods are not suitable to act as standalone system. Hence, the designing of a proper ELC is essential. The improved electronic load control performance tested with simulation at validated through hardware setup.

Lighting up the World The first global application of the open source, spatial electrification toolkit (ONSSET)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Siyal, Shahid; Broad, Oliver; Zepeda, Eduardo; Bazilian, Morgan

2016-04-01

In September 2015, the international community has adopted a new set of targets, following and expanding on the millennium development goals (MDGs), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all is one of the 17 set goals that each country should work towards realizing. According to the latest Global Tracking Framework, 15% of the global population live without access to electricity. The majority of those (87%) reside in rural areas. Countries can reach universal access through various electrification options, depending on different levels of energy intensity and local characteristics of the studied areas, such as renewable resources availability, spatially differentiated costs of diesel-fuelled electricity generation, distance from power network and major cities, population density and others, data which are usually inadequate in national databases. This general paucity of reliable energy-related information in developing countries calls for the utilization of geospatial data. This paper presents a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based electrification analysis for all countries that have not yet reached full access to electricity (Sub-Saharan Africa, Developing Asia, Latin America and Middle East). The cost optimal mix of electrification options ranges from grid extensions to mini-grid and stand-alone applications and is identified for all relevant countries. It is illustrated how this mix is influenced by scrolling through various electrification levels and different oil prices. Such an analysis helps direct donors and investors and inform multinational actions with regards to investments related to energy access.

Photovoltaic battery charging experience in the Philippines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Navarro, S.T. Jr.

1997-12-01

With the turn of the century, people in remote areas still live without electricity. Conventional electrification will hardly reach the remaining 50% of the population of the Philippines in remote areas. With photovoltaic technology, the delivery of electricity to remote areas can be sustainable. Malalison island was chosen as a project site for electrification using photovoltaic technology. With the fragile balance of ecology and seasonal income in this island, the PV electrification proved to be a better option than conventional fossil based electrification. The Solar Battery Charging Station (SBCS) was used to suit the economic and geographical condition of themore » island. Results showed that the system can charge as many as three batteries in a day for an average fee of $0.54 per battery. Charging is measured by an ampere-hour counter to determine the exact amount of charge the battery received. The system was highly accepted by the local residents and the demand easily outgrew the system within four months. A technical, economic and social evaluation was done. A recovery period of seven years and five months is expected when competed with the conventional battery charging in the mainland. The technical, economic, institutional and social risks faced by the project were analyzed. Statistics showed that there is a potential of 920,000 households that can benefit from PV electrification in the Philippines. The data and experiences gained in this study are valuable in designing SBCS for remote unelectrified communities in the Philippines and other developing countries.« less

On the Electrification of Pyrocumulus Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lang, Timothy J.; Rutledge, Steven A.; Dolan, Brenda; Krehbiel, Paul; Rison, William; Lindsey, Daniel T.

2013-01-01

The electrification (or lack thereof) of pyrocumulus clouds is examined for several different wildfires that occurred during 2012-2013. For example, pyrocumulus clouds above three Colorado wildfires (Hewlett Gulch, High Park, and Waldo Canyon; all occurred during summer 2012) electrified and produced small intracloud discharges whenever the smoke plumes grew to high altitudes (over 10 km above mean sea level, or MSL). This occurred during periods of rapid wildfire growth, as indicated by the shortwave infrared channel on a geostationary satellite, as well as by incident reports. In the Hewlett Gulch case, the fire growth led to increased updrafts within the plume, as inferred by multiple-Doppler radar syntheses, which led to the vertical development and subsequent electrification - a life cycle as short as 30 minutes. The lightning, detected by a three-dimensional lightning mapping network, was favored in high-altitude regions (10 km MSL) containing modest reflectivities (25 dBZ and lower), 0 dB differential reflectivity, and reduced correlation coefficient (0.6-0.7). This indicated the likely presence of ice particles (crystals and aggregates, possibly rimed) mixed with ash. Though neither multiple-Doppler nor polarimetric observations were available during the electrification of the High Park and Waldo Canyon plumes, their NEXRAD observations showed reflectivity structures consistent with Hewlett Gulch. In addition, polarimetric and multiple-Doppler scanning of unelectrified High Park plumes indicated only irregularly shaped ash, and not ice, was present (i.e., reflectivities < 25 dBZ, differential reflectivity > 5 dB, correlation < 0.4), and there was no broaching of the 10 km altitude. Based on these results, the electrification likely was caused by ice-based processes that did not involve significant amounts of graupel. Results for pyrocumulus clouds above notable 2013 wildfires that also experienced rapid growth (e.g., Black Forest, Yarnell Hill, West Fork, Tres Lagunas, etc.) will be compared against the 2012 cases, with special emphasis on polarimetric NEXRAD and available lightning measurements, in order to better understand the physical processes responsible for pyrocumulus electrification.

A statistical model of extreme storm rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1990-02-01

A model of storm rainfall is developed for the central Appalachian region of the United States. The model represents the temporal occurrence of major storms and, for a given storm, the spatial distribution of storm rainfall. Spatial inhomogeneities of storm rainfall and temporal inhomogeneities of the storm occurrence process are explicitly represented. The model is used for estimating recurrence intervals of extreme storms. The parameter estimation procedure developed for the model is based on the substitution principle (method of moments) and requires data from a network of rain gages. The model is applied to a 5000 mi2 (12,950 km2) region in the Valley and Ridge Province of Virginia and West Virginia.

17 CFR 250.47 - Exemption of public utility subsidiaries as to certain securities issued to the Rural...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Electrification Administration. (a) Exemption. Any public utility company which is a subsidiary company of a... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Exemption of public utility subsidiaries as to certain securities issued to the Rural Electrification Administration. 250.47 Section 250.47...

Selecting Electricity Generation Sources in Remote Locations

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

A.N., & Chubb, T.J. (2005). Optimization of a PV with Diesel- Battery System for Remote Villages. International Solar Energy Journal , 6, 107- 118...List of Figures Page Figure 1. Electrification Rates by Region, 1970-2003 ( International , 2002) .................. 25 Figure 2. World Bank...xii List of Tables Page Table 1. Countries in 2000 with Low Electrification Rates ( International , 2002) .......... 13

Northeast Corridor Improvement Project Electrification - New Haven, CT to Boston, MA : Final Environmental Impact Statement/Report - v. 3. Response to Comments on Draft Environmental Impact Statement/Report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-10-31

This document is the final environmental impact statement and final environmental impact report (FEIS/R) on the proposal by the National Railroad Passenger Corporation (Amtrak) to complete the electrification of the Northeast Corridor main line by ex...

Contact Electrification of Regolith Particles and Chloride Electrolysis: Synthesis of Perchlorates on Mars.

PubMed

Tennakone, K

2016-10-01

Contact electrification of chloride-impregnated martian regolith particles due to eolian agitation and moisture condensation on coalesced oppositely charged grains may lead to spontaneous electrolysis that generates hypochlorite, chlorite, chlorate, and perchlorate with a concomitant reduction of water to hydrogen. This process is not curtailed even if moisture condenses as ice because chloride ionizes on the surface of ice. Limitations dictated by potentials needed for electrolysis and breakdown electric fields enable estimation of the required regolith grain size. The estimated dimension turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as the expected median size of martian regolith, and a simple calculation yields the optimum rate of perchlorate production. Key Words: Mars oxidants-Perchlorate-Dust electrification-Electrolysis. Astrobiology 16, 811-816.

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Modeling storms improves estimates of long-term shoreline change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frazer, L. Neil; Anderson, Tiffany R.; Fletcher, Charles H.

2009-10-01

Large storms make it difficult to extract the long-term trend of erosion or accretion from shoreline position data. Here we make storms part of the shoreline change model by means of a storm function. The data determine storm amplitudes and the rate at which the shoreline recovers from storms. Historical shoreline data are temporally sparse, and inclusion of all storms in one model over-fits the data, but a probability-weighted average model shows effects from all storms, illustrating how model averaging incorporates information from good models that might otherwise have been discarded as un-parsimonious. Data from Cotton Patch Hill, DE, yield a long-term shoreline loss rate of 0.49 ± 0.01 m/yr, about 16% less than published estimates. A minimum loss rate of 0.34 ± 0.01 m/yr is given by a model containing the 1929, 1962 and 1992 storms.

Analysis of In-Route Wireless Charging for the Shuttle System at Zion National Park

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Meintz, Andrew; Prohaska, Robert; Konan, Arnaud

System right-sizing is critical to implementation of wireless power transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles. This study will analyze potential WPT scenarios for the electrification of shuttle buses at Zion National Park utilizing a modelling tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory called WPTSim. This tool uses second-by-second speed, location, and road grade data from the conventional shuttles in operation to simulate the incorporation of WPT at fine granularity. Vehicle power and state of charge are simulated over the drive cycle to evaluate potential system designs. The required battery capacity is determined based on the rated power at a variablemore » number of charging locations. The outcome of this work is an analysis of the design tradeoffs for the electrification of the shuttle fleet with wireless charging versus conventional overnight charging.« less

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Truck Stop Electrification for Heavy-Duty

Science.gov Websites

-board equipment so trucks can plug into electrical outlets at the truck stop. To use dual-system electrification, trucks must be equipped with AC equipment or an inverter to convert 120-volt power, electrical equipment, and hardware to plug in to the electrical outlet. Necessary electrical equipment might include an

Looking ever so much like an alien spacecraft, the Altus II remotely piloted aircraft shows off some

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Looking ever so much like an alien spacecraft, the Altus II remotely piloted aircraft shows off some of the instruments and camera lenses mounted in its nose for a lightning study over Florida flown during the summer of 2002. The Altus Cumulus Electrification Study (ACES), led by Dr. Richard Blakeslee of NASA Marshall Space Flight center, focused on the collection of electrical, magnetic and optical measurements of thunderstorms. Data collected will help scientists understand the development and life cycles of thunderstorms, which in turn may allow meteorologists to more accurately predict when destructive storms may hit. The Altus II, built by General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc., is one of several remotely operated aircraft developed and matured under NASA's Environmental Research Aircraft and Sensor Technology (ERAST) program. The program focused on developing airframe, propulsion, control system and communications technologies to allow unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to operate at very high altitudes for long durations while carrying a variety of sensors, cameras or other instruments for science experiments, surveillance or telecommunications relay missions.

Synthetic calibration of a Rainfall-Runoff Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, David B.; Westphal, Jerome A.; ,

1990-01-01

A method for synthetically calibrating storm-mode parameters for the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is described. Synthetic calibration is accomplished by adjusting storm-mode parameters to minimize deviations between the pseudo-probability disributions represented by regional regression equations and actual frequency distributions fitted to model-generated peak discharge and runoff volume. Results of modeling storm hydrographs using synthetic and analytic storm-mode parameters are presented. Comparisons are made between model results from both parameter sets and between model results and observed hydrographs. Although mean storm runoff is reproducible to within about 26 percent of the observed mean storm runoff for five or six parameter sets, runoff from individual storms is subject to large disparities. Predicted storm runoff volume ranged from 2 percent to 217 percent of commensurate observed values. Furthermore, simulation of peak discharges was poor. Predicted peak discharges from individual storm events ranged from 2 percent to 229 percent of commensurate observed values. The model was incapable of satisfactorily executing storm-mode simulations for the study watersheds. This result is not considered a particular fault of the model, but instead is indicative of deficiencies in similar conceptual models.

Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A.

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of 2 m. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Nearshore hydrodynamic modeling, waves, synthetic tropical storms , extratropical storms , Hurricane Isabel, land...an increase in SLR and coastal storms , including hurricanes (tropical storms ) and winter storms ( extratropical storms ), will increase the risk of... storms ) corresponding to 50-year and 100-year return periods and a most probable winter storm ( extratropical ) that occurred in October 1982 (Burks-Copes

Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

2009-04-01

Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic model yields better forecasts than the existing European storm surge models. The best performance of European storm surge models for non-storm and storm conditions was achieved by KNMI (with Kalman filter data assimilation) and BSH with errors of 8.95cm and 10.92cm, respectively. Whereas the chaotic model can provide 6 and 48 hours forecasts with errors of 3.10cm and 8.55cm for non-storm condition and 5.04cm and 15.21cm for storm condition, respectively. The chaotic model can provide better forecasts primarily due to the fact that the chaotic model forecasting are estimated by local models which model and identify the similar development of storm surges in the past. In practice, the chaotic model can serve as a reliable and accurate model to support decision-makers in operational ship navigation and flood forecasting.

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere E-Region Electron Densities Using TIMED/SABER Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, C. J.; Xu, X.; Fernandez, J. R.; Bilitza, D.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2009-01-01

Auroral infrared emission observed from the TIMED/SABER broadband 4.3 micron channel is used to develop an empirical geomagnetic storm correction to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region electron densities. The observation-based proxy used to develop the storm model is SABER-derived NO+(v) 4.3 micron volume emission rates (VER). A correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-time NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER to a quiet-time climatological averaged NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER, which is linearly fit to available geomagnetic activity indices. The initial version of the E-region storm model, called STORM-E, is most applicable within the auroral oval region. The STORM-E predictions of E-region electron densities are compared to incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements during the Halloween 2003 storm events. Future STORM-E updates will extend the model outside the auroral oval.

Assessments of Wind-Energy Potential in Selected Sites from Three Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria: Implications for Renewable/Sustainable Rural Electrification

PubMed Central

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

2015-01-01

Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested. PMID:25879063

Assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three geopolitical zones in Nigeria: implications for renewable/sustainable rural electrification.

PubMed

Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

2015-01-01

Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested.

Comparison of estimated and observed stormwater runoff for fifteen watersheds in west-central Florida, using five common design techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trommer, J.T.; Loper, J.E.; Hammett, K.M.; Bowman, Georgia

1996-01-01

Hydrologists use several traditional techniques for estimating peak discharges and runoff volumes from ungaged watersheds. However, applying these techniques to watersheds in west-central Florida requires that empirical relationships be extrapolated beyond tested ranges. As a result there is some uncertainty as to their accuracy. Sixty-six storms in 15 west-central Florida watersheds were modeled using (1) the rational method, (2) the U.S. Geological Survey regional regression equations, (3) the Natural Resources Conservation Service (formerly the Soil Conservation Service) TR-20 model, (4) the Army Corps of Engineers HEC-1 model, and (5) the Environmental Protection Agency SWMM model. The watersheds ranged between fully developed urban and undeveloped natural watersheds. Peak discharges and runoff volumes were estimated using standard or recommended methods for determining input parameters. All model runs were uncalibrated and the selection of input parameters was not influenced by observed data. The rational method, only used to calculate peak discharges, overestimated 45 storms, underestimated 20 storms and estimated the same discharge for 1 storm. The mean estimation error for all storms indicates the method overestimates the peak discharges. Estimation errors were generally smaller in the urban watersheds and larger in the natural watersheds. The U.S. Geological Survey regression equations provide peak discharges for storms of specific recurrence intervals. Therefore, direct comparison with observed data was limited to sixteen observed storms that had precipitation equivalent to specific recurrence intervals. The mean estimation error for all storms indicates the method overestimates both peak discharges and runoff volumes. Estimation errors were smallest for the larger natural watersheds in Sarasota County, and largest for the small watersheds located in the eastern part of the study area. The Natural Resources Conservation Service TR-20 model, overestimated peak discharges for 45 storms and underestimated 21 storms, and overestimated runoff volumes for 44 storms and underestimated 22 storms. The mean estimation error for all storms modeled indicates that the model overestimates peak discharges and runoff volumes. The smaller estimation errors in both peak discharges and runoff volumes were for storms occurring in the urban watersheds, and the larger errors were for storms occurring in the natural watersheds. The HEC-1 model overestimated peak discharge rates for 55 storms and underestimated 11 storms. Runoff volumes were overestimated for 44 storms and underestimated for 22 storms using the Army Corps of Engineers HEC-1 model. The mean estimation error for all the storms modeled indicates that the model overestimates peak discharge rates and runoff volumes. Generally, the smaller estimation errors in peak discharges were for storms occurring in the urban watersheds, and the larger errors were for storms occurring in the natural watersheds. Estimation errors in runoff volumes; however, were smallest for the 3 natural watersheds located in the southernmost part of Sarasota County. The Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management model produced similar peak discharges and runoff volumes when using both the Green-Ampt and Horton infiltration methods. Estimated peak discharge and runoff volume data calculated with the Horton method was only slightly higher than those calculated with the Green-Ampt method. The mean estimation error for all the storms modeled indicates the model using the Green-Ampt infiltration method overestimates peak discharges and slightly underestimates runoff volumes. Using the Horton infiltration method, the model overestimates both peak discharges and runoff volumes. The smaller estimation errors in both peak discharges and runoff volumes were for storms occurring in the five natural watersheds in Sarasota County with the least amount of impervious cover and the lowest slopes. The largest er

Final Report - Navajo Electrification Demonstration Project - FY2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenneth L. Craig, Interim General Manager

2007-03-31

The Navajo Electrification Demonstration Project (NEDP) is a multi-year projects which addresses the needs of unserved Navajo Nation residents without basic electricity services. The Navajo Nation is the United States' largest tribe, in terms of population and land. An estimated 18,000 Navajo Nation homes do not have basic grid-tied electricity--and this third year of funding, known as NEDP-3, provided 351 power line extensions to Navajo families.

Wind driven erosion and the effects of particulate electrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merrison, J. P.; Bak, E.; Finster, K.; Gunnlaugsson, H. P.; Holstein-Rathlou, C.; Knak Jensen, S.; Nørnberg, P.; Rasmussen, K. R.

2012-09-01

Several related aspects of Aeolian activity are presently being studied in the laboratory, the most recent advances in this field will be presented. These include simulating wind driven erosion in the laboratory, quantifying erosion rates and the study of mineral change due to mechanical activation. Also advances in our understanding of the electrification of sand/dust particles is being made and how this phenomenon affects their behavior.

Lighting the World: the first application of an open source, spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) on Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mentis, Dimitrios; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Korkovelos, Alexandros; Arderne, Christopher; Zepeda, Eduardo; Siyal, Shahid; Taliotis, Costantinos; Bazilian, Morgan; de Roo, Ad; Tanvez, Yann; Oudalov, Alexandre; Scholtz, Ernst

2017-08-01

In September 2015, the United Nations General Assembly adopted Agenda 2030, which comprises a set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) defined by 169 targets. ‘Ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030’ is the seventh goal (SDG7). While access to energy refers to more than electricity, the latter is the central focus of this work. According to the World Bank’s 2015 Global Tracking Framework, roughly 15% of the world’s population (or 1.1 billion people) lack access to electricity, and many more rely on poor quality electricity services. The majority of those without access (87%) reside in rural areas. This paper presents results of a geographic information systems approach coupled with open access data. We present least-cost electrification strategies on a country-by-country basis for Sub-Saharan Africa. The electrification options include grid extension, mini-grid and stand-alone systems for rural, peri-urban, and urban contexts across the economy. At low levels of electricity demand there is a strong penetration of standalone technologies. However, higher electricity demand levels move the favourable electrification option from stand-alone systems to mini grid and to grid extensions.

Modeling ionospheric foF 2 response during geomagnetic storms using neural network and linear regression techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tshisaphungo, Mpho; Habarulema, John Bosco; McKinnell, Lee-Anne

2018-06-01

In this paper, the modeling of the ionospheric foF 2 changes during geomagnetic storms by means of neural network (NN) and linear regression (LR) techniques is presented. The results will lead to a valuable tool to model the complex ionospheric changes during disturbed days in an operational space weather monitoring and forecasting environment. The storm-time foF 2 data during 1996-2014 from Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E), South Africa ionosonde station was used in modeling. In this paper, six storms were reserved to validate the models and hence not used in the modeling process. We found that the performance of both NN and LR models is comparable during selected storms which fell within the data period (1996-2014) used in modeling. However, when validated on storm periods beyond 1996-2014, the NN model gives a better performance (R = 0.62) compared to LR model (R = 0.56) for a storm that reached a minimum Dst index of -155 nT during 19-23 December 2015. We also found that both NN and LR models are capable of capturing the ionospheric foF 2 responses during two great geomagnetic storms (28 October-1 November 2003 and 6-12 November 2004) which have been demonstrated to be difficult storms to model in previous studies.

Modeling Earth's Ring Current Using The CIMI Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craven, J. D., II; Perez, J. D.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. C. H.

2015-12-01

Earth's ring current is a result of the injection of charged particles trapped in the magnetosphere from solar storms. The enhancement of the ring current particles produces magnetic depressions and disturbances to the Earth's magnetic field known as geomagnetic storms, which have been modeled using the comprehensive inner magnetosphere-ionosphere (CIMI) model. The purpose of this model is to identify and understand the physical processes that control the dynamics of the geomagnetic storms. The basic procedure was to use the CIMI model for the simulation of 15 storms since 2009. Some of the storms were run multiple times, but with varying parameters relating to the dynamics of the Earth's magnetic field, particle fluxes, and boundary conditions of the inner-magnetosphere. Results and images were placed in the TWINS online catalog page for further analysis and discussion. Particular areas of interest were extreme storm events. A majority of storms simulated had average DST values of -100 nT; these extreme storms exceeded DST values of -200 nT. The continued use of the CIMI model will increase knowledge of the interactions and processes of the inner-magnetosphere as well as lead to a better understanding of extreme solar storm events for the future advancement of space weather physics.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

PubMed

Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-03-27

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

PubMed Central

Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-01-01

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

Corona from Ice, Thunderstorm Electrification and Lightning Suppression.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-11-01

rates of droplets highly charged by interaction with corona streamers. Laboratory and theoretical studies have been performed in an effort to explore in...CORONA FROM ICE, THUNDERSTORM ELECTRIFICATION Final AND LIGHTNING SUPPRESSION 1 Sep 77 to 31 Aug 80 6. Performing Org. Report Number 7. Author(s) 8...Contract or Grant Number J. Latham AFOSR-77-3429 O"o 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Program Element, Project, Task Physics Department

Non-Economic Determinants of Energy Use in Rural Areas of South Africa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annecke, W.

1999-03-29

This project will begin to determine the forces and dimensions in rural energy-use patterns and begin to address policy and implementation needs for the future. This entails: Forecasting the social and economic benefits that electrification is assumed to deliver regarding education and women's lives; Assessing negative perceptions of users, which have been established through the slow uptake of electricity; Making recommendations as to how these perceptions could be addressed in policy development and in the continuing electrification program; Making recommendations to policy makers on how to support and make optimal use of current energy-use practices where these are socio-economically sound;more » Identifying misinformation and wasteful practices; and Other recommendations, which will significantly improve the success of the rural electrification program in a socio-economically sound manner, as identified in the course of the work.« less

Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.

2017-12-01

High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.

Potential for widespread electrification of personal vehicle travel in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Needell, Zachary A.; McNerney, James; Chang, Michael T.; Trancik, Jessika E.

2016-09-01

Electric vehicles can contribute to climate change mitigation if coupled with decarbonized electricity, but only if vehicle range matches travellers’ needs. Evaluating electric vehicle range against a population’s needs is challenging because detailed driving behaviour must be taken into account. Here we develop a model to combine information from coarse-grained but expansive travel surveys with high-resolution GPS data to estimate the energy requirements of personal vehicle trips across the US. We find that the energy requirements of 87% of vehicle-days could be met by an existing, affordable electric vehicle. This percentage is markedly similar across diverse cities, even when per capita gasoline consumption differs significantly. We also find that for the highest-energy days, other vehicle technologies are likely to be needed even as batteries improve and charging infrastructure expands. Car sharing or other means to serve this small number of high-energy days could play an important role in the electrification and decarbonization of transportation.

Toward the Characterization of Mixed-Phase Clouds Using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andronache, C.

2015-12-01

Mixed-phase clouds consist of a mixture of ice particles and liquid droplets at temperatures below 0 deg C. They are present in all seasons in many regions of the world, account for about 30% of the global cloud coverage, and are linked to cloud electrification and aircraft icing. The mix of ice particles, liquid droplets, and water vapor is unstable, and such clouds are thought to have a short lifetime. A characteristic parameter is the phase composition of mixed-phase clouds. It affects the cloud life cycle and the rate of precipitation. This parameter is important for cloud parameters retrievals by radar, lidar, and satellite and is relevant for climate modeling. The phase transformation includes the remarkable Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen (WBF) process. The direction and the rate of the phase transformations depend on the local thermodynamic and microphysical properties. Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN) particles determine to a large extent cloud microstructure and the dynamic response of clouds to aerosols. The complexity of dynamics and microphysics involved in mixed-phase clouds requires a set of observational and modeling tools that continue to be refined. Among these techniques, the remote sensing methods provide an increasing number of parameters, covering large regions of the world. Thus, a series of studies were dedicated to stratiform mixed-phase clouds revealing longer lifetime than previously thought. Satellite data and aircraft in situ measurements in deep convective clouds suggest that highly supercooled water often occurs in vigorous continental convective storms. In this study, we use cases of convective clouds to discuss the feasibility of mixed-phase clouds characterization and potential advantages of remote sensing.

Statistical characteristics of storm interevent time, depth, and duration for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Asquith, William H.; Roussel, Meghan C.; Cleveland, Theodore G.; Fang, Xing; Thompson, David B.

2006-01-01

The design of small runoff-control structures, from simple floodwater-detention basins to sophisticated best-management practices, requires the statistical characterization of rainfall as a basis for cost-effective, risk-mitigated, hydrologic engineering design. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, has developed a framework to estimate storm statistics including storm interevent times, distributions of storm depths, and distributions of storm durations for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The analysis is based on hourly rainfall recorded by the National Weather Service. The database contains more than 155 million hourly values from 774 stations in the study area. Seven sets of maps depicting ranges of mean storm interevent time, mean storm depth, and mean storm duration, by county, as well as tables listing each of those statistics, by county, were developed. The mean storm interevent time is used in probabilistic models to assess the frequency distribution of storms. The Poisson distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm occurrence, and the exponential distribution is suggested to model the distribution of storm interevent times. The four-parameter kappa distribution is judged as an appropriate distribution for modeling the distribution of both storm depth and storm duration. Preference for the kappa distribution is based on interpretation of L-moment diagrams. Parameter estimates for the kappa distributions are provided. Separate dimensionless frequency curves for storm depth and duration are defined for eastern New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Dimension is restored by multiplying curve ordinates by the mean storm depth or mean storm duration to produce quantile functions of storm depth and duration. Minimum interevent time and location have slight influence on the scale and shape of the dimensionless frequency curves. Ten example problems and solutions to possible applications are provided.

Modeling of storm runoff and pollutant wash off processes during storm event in rapidly urbanizing catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, H. P.; Yu, X. Y.; Khu, S. T.

2009-04-01

Many urban catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast economic growth, population expansion and land use/cover change. Due to the mixture of agricultural/industrial/residential land use or different urbanization level as well as lack of historical monitoring data in the developing area, storm-water runoff pollution modeling is faced with challenges of considerable spatial variations and data insufficiency. Shiyan Reservoir catchment is located in the rapidly urbanizing coastal region of Southeast China. It has six sub-catchments with largely different land use patterns and urbanization levels. A simple semi-distributed model was used to simulate the storm-water runoff pollution process during storm event in the catchment. The model adopted modified IHACRES model and exponential wash-off functions to describe storm-runoff and pollutant wash-off processes, respectively, in each of six sub-catchments. Temporary hydrological and water quality monitoring sites were set at the downstream section of each sub-catchment in Feb-May 2007, spanning non-rain and rain seasons. And the model was calibrated for storm-runoff and water quality data during two typical storm events with rainfall amount of 10mm/4hr and 73mm/5hr, respectively. The results indicated that the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients are greater than 0.65 and 0.55 respectively for storm-runoff model calibration and validation. However although NS coefficients can reach 0.7~0.9 for pollutant wash-off model calibration based on measured data in each storm event, the simulation data can not fit well with the measured data in model validation. According to field survey observation, many litters and residuals were found to distribute in disorder in some sub-catchments or their drainage systems and to instantaneously wash off into the surface water when the rainfall amount and intensity are large enough. In order to improve storm-water runoff pollution simulation in the catchment, the variations of pollutant source and wash off processes in different storm intensity should be consider in future monitoring and model development. Keywords: storm runoff; wash off; urbanization; catchment modeling; litter; residual

IRI STORM validation over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

2014-05-01

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

The DREAMS experiment flown on the ExoMars 2016 mission for the study of Martian environment during the dust storm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettanini, C.; Esposito, R.; Debei, S.; Molfese, C.; Colombatti, G.; Aboudan, A.; Brucato, J. R.; Cortecchia, F.; Di Achille, G.; Guizzo, G. P.; Friso, E.; Ferri, F.; Marty, L.; Mennella, V.; Molinaro, R.; Schipani, P.; Silvestro, S.; Mugnuolo, R.; Pirrotta, S.; Marchetti, E.; Harri, A.-M.; Montmessin, F.; Wilson, C.; Arruego Rodriguez, I.; Abbaki, S.; Apestigue, V.; Bellucci, G.; Berthelier, J. J.; Calcutt, S. B.; Forget, F.; Genzer, M.; Gilbert, P.; Haukka, H.; Jimenez, J. J.; Jimenez, S.; Josset, J. L.; Karatekin, O.; Landis, G.; Lorenz, R.; Martinez, J.; Möhlmann, D.; Moirin, D.; Palomba, E.; Pateli, M.; Pommereau, J.-P.; Popa, C. I.; Rafkin, S.; Rannou, P.; Renno, N. O.; Schmidt, W.; Simoes, F.; Spiga, A.; Valero, F.; Vazquez, L.; Vivat, F.; Witasse, O.

2017-08-01

The DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk assessment and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface) experiment on Schiaparelli lander of ExoMars 2016 mission was an autonomous meteorological station designed to completely characterize the Martian atmosphere on surface, acquiring data not only on temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, but also on solar irradiance, dust opacity and atmospheric electrification, to measure for the first time key parameters linked to hazard conditions for future manned explorations. Although with very limited mass and energy resources, DREAMS would be able to operate autonomously for at least two Martian days (sols) after landing in a very harsh environment as it was supposed to land on Mars during the dust storm season (October 2016 in Meridiani Planum) relying on its own power supply. ExoMars mission was successfully launched on 14th March 2016 and Schiaparelli entered the Mars atmosphere on October 20th beginning its 'six minutes of terror' journey to the surface. Unfortunately, some unexpected behavior during the parachuted descent caused an unrecoverable critical condition in navigation system of the lander driving to a destructive crash on the surface. The adverse sequence of events at 4 km altitude triggered the transition of the lander in surface operative mode, commanding switch on the DREAMS instrument, which was therefore able to correctly power on and send back housekeeping data. This proved the nominal performance of all DREAMS hardware before touchdown demonstrating the highest TRL of the unit for future missions. This paper describes this experiment in terms of scientific goals, design, performances, testing and operational capabilities with an overview of in flight performances and available mission data.

Quantitative Evaluation of Ionosphere Models for Reproducing Regional TEC During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Huba, J.; Mitchell, C. N.; Ridley, A. J.; Fedrizzi, M.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

2015-12-01

TEC (Total Electron Content) is one of the key parameters in description of the ionospheric variability that has influence on the accuracy of navigation and communication systems. To assess current TEC modeling capability of ionospheric models during geomagnetic storms and to establish a baseline against which future improvement can be compared, we quantified the ionospheric models' performance by comparing modeled vertical TEC values with ground-based GPS TEC measurements and Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System (MIDAS) TEC. The comparison focused on North America and Europe sectors during selected two storm events: 2006 AGU storm (14-15 Dec. 2006) and 2013 March storm (17-19 Mar. 2013). The ionospheric models used for this study range from empirical to physics-based, and physics-based data assimilation models. We investigated spatial and temporal variations of TEC during the storms. In addition, we considered several parameters to quantify storm impacts on TEC: TEC changes compared to quiet time, rate of TEC change, and maximum increase/decrease during the storms. In this presentation, we focus on preliminary results of the comparison of the models performance in reproducing the storm-time TEC variations using the parameters and skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

Assessment of Modeling Capability for Reproducing Storm Impacts on TEC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Kuznetsova, M. M.; Rastaetter, L.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Foerster, M.; Foster, B.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Huba, J. D.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

2014-12-01

During geomagnetic storm, the energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere-ionosphere system adversely affects the communication and navigation systems. Quantifying storm impacts on TEC (Total Electron Content) and assessment of modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC are of importance to specifying and forecasting space weather. In order to quantify storm impacts on TEC, we considered several parameters: TEC changes compared to quiet time (the day before storm), TEC difference between 24-hour intervals, and maximum increase/decrease during the storm. We investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the parameters during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 Dec. 2006) using ground-based GPS TEC measurements in the selected 5 degree eight longitude sectors. The latitudinal variations were also studied in two longitude sectors among the eight sectors where data coverage is relatively better. We obtained modeled TEC from various ionosphere/thermosphere (IT) models. The parameters from the models were compared with each other and with the observed values. We quantified performance of the models in reproducing the TEC variations during the storm using skill scores. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haylock, M. R.

2011-10-01

Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

DOE PAGES

Wehner, Michael F.; Bala, G.; Duffy, Phillip; ...

2010-01-01

We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST) is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. Whilemore » this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.« less

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

Modeling of electron time variations in the radiation belts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chan, K. W.; Teague, M. J.; Schofield, N. J.; Vette, J. I.

1979-01-01

A review of the temporal variation in the trapped electron population of the inner and outer radiation zones is presented. Techniques presently used for modeling these zones are discussed and their deficiencies identified. An intermediate region is indicated between the zones in which the present modeling techniques are inadequate due to the magnitude and frequency of magnetic storms. Future trends are examined, and it is suggested that modeling of individual magnetic storms may be required in certain L bands. An analysis of seven magnetic storms is presented, establishing the independence of the depletion time of the storm flux and the storm magnitude. Provisional correlation between the storm magnitude and the Dst index is demonstrated.

Water quality of storm runoff and comparison of procedures for estimating storm-runoff loads, volume, event-mean concentrations, and the mean load for a storm for selected properties and constituents for Colorado Springs, southeastern Colorado, 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Von Guerard, Paul; Weiss, W.B.

1995-01-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that municipalities that have a population of 100,000 or greater obtain National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permits to characterize the quality of their storm runoff. In 1992, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Colorado Springs City Engineering Division, began a study to characterize the water quality of storm runoff and to evaluate procedures for the estimation of storm-runoff loads, volume and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents. Precipitation, streamflow, and water-quality data were collected during 1992 at five sites in Colorado Springs. Thirty-five samples were collected, seven at each of the five sites. At each site, three samples were collected for permitting purposes; two of the samples were collected during rainfall runoff, and one sample was collected during snowmelt runoff. Four additional samples were collected at each site to obtain a large enough sample size to estimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations for selected properties and constituents using linear-regression procedures developed using data from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program (NURP). Storm-water samples were analyzed for as many as 186 properties and constituents. The constituents measured include total-recoverable metals, vola-tile-organic compounds, acid-base/neutral organic compounds, and pesticides. Storm runoff sampled had large concentrations of chemical oxygen demand and 5-day biochemical oxygen demand. Chemical oxygen demand ranged from 100 to 830 milligrams per liter, and 5.-day biochemical oxygen demand ranged from 14 to 260 milligrams per liter. Total-organic carbon concentrations ranged from 18 to 240 milligrams per liter. The total-recoverable metals lead and zinc had the largest concentrations of the total-recoverable metals analyzed. Concentrations of lead ranged from 23 to 350 micrograms per liter, and concentrations of zinc ranged from 110 to 1,400 micrograms per liter. The data for 30 storms representing rainfall runoff from 5 drainage basins were used to develop single-storm local-regression models. The response variables, storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations were modeled using explanatory variables for climatic, physical, and land-use characteristics. The r2 for models that use ordinary least-squares regression ranged from 0.57 to 0.86 for storm-runoff loads and volume and from 0.25 to 0.63 for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Except for cadmium, standard errors of estimate ranged from 43 to 115 percent for storm- runoff loads and volume and from 35 to 66 percent for storm-runoff event-mean concentrations. Eleven of the 30 concentrations collected during rainfall runoff for total-recoverable cadmium were censored (less than) concentrations. Ordinary least-squares regression should not be used with censored data; however, censored data can be included with uncensored data using tobit regression. Standard errors of estimate for storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration for total-recoverable cadmium, computed using tobit regression, are 247 and 171 percent. Estimates from single-storm regional-regression models, developed from the Nationwide Urban Runoff Program data base, were compared with observed storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean concentrations determined from samples collected in the study area. Single-storm regional-regression models tended to overestimate storm-runoff loads, volume, and event-mean con-centrations. Therefore, single-storm local- and regional-regression models were combined using model-adjustment procedures to take advantage of the strengths of both models while minimizing the deficiencies of each model. Procedures were used to develop single-stormregression equations that were adjusted using local data and estimates from single-storm regional-regression equations. Single-storm regression models developed using model- adjustment proce

A Point Rainfall Generator With Internal Storm Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marien, J. L.; Vandewiele, G. L.

1986-04-01

A point rainfall generator is a probabilistic model for the time series of rainfall as observed in one geographical point. The main purpose of such a model is to generate long synthetic sequences of rainfall for simulation studies. The present generator is a continuous time model based on 13.5 years of 10-min point rainfalls observed in Belgium and digitized with a resolution of 0.1 mm. The present generator attempts to model all features of the rainfall time series which are important for flood studies as accurately as possible. The original aspects of the model are on the one hand the way in which storms are defined and on the other hand the theoretical model for the internal storm characteristics. The storm definition has the advantage that the important characteristics of successive storms are fully independent and very precisely modelled, even on time bases as small as 10 min. The model of the internal storm characteristics has a strong theoretical structure. This fact justifies better the extrapolation of this model to severe storms for which the data are very sparse. This can be important when using the model to simulate severe flood events.

Observations and global numerical modelling of the St. Patrick's Day 2015 geomagnetic storm event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, M.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Doornbos, E.; Astafieva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.

2017-12-01

With a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at 04:45 UT on St. Patrick's day 2015 started the most severe geomagnetic storm in solar cycle 24. It appeared as a two-stage geomagnetic storm with a minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT. In the response to the storm commencement in the first activation, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second phase commencing around 12:30 UT lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe with hemispherical different ionospheric storm reactions in different longitudinal ranges. Swarm-C observations of the neutral mass density variation along the orbital path as well as Langmuir probe plasma and magnetometer measurements of all three Swarm satellites and global TEC records are used for physical interpretations and modelling of the positive/negative storm scenario. These observations pose a challenge for the global numerical modelling of thermosphere-ionosphere storm processes as the storm, which occurred around spring equinox, obviously signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. Numerical simulation trials using the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P) are presented to explain these peculiar M-I-T storm processes.

Development of Operational Wave-Tide-Storm surges Coupling Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S. H.; Park, S. W.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, K. L.

2009-04-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surges, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module. In Korea, especially, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (STORM : Storm Surges/Tide Operational Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The STORM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and STORM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. These two operational models are coupled to simulate wave heights for typhoon case. The sea level and current simulated by storm surge model are used for the input of wave model with 3 hour interval. The coupling simulation between wave and storm surge model carried out for Typhoon Nabi (0514), Shanshan(0613) and Nari (0711) which were effected on Korea directly. We simulated significant wave height simulated by wave model and coupling model and compared difference between uncoupling and coupling cases for each typhoon. When the typhoon Nabi hit at southern coast of Kyushu, predicted significant wave height reached over 10 m. The difference of significant wave height between wave and wave-tide-storm surges model represents large variation at the southwestern coast of Korea with about 0.5 m. Other typhoon cases also show similar results with typhoon Nabi case. For typhoon Shanshan case the difference of significant wave height reached up to 0.3 m. When the typhoon Nari was affected in the southern coast of Korea, predicted significant wave height was about 5m. The typhoon Nari case also shows the difference of significant wave height similar with other typhoon cases. Using the observation from ocean buoy operated by KMA, we compared wave information simulated by wave and wave-storm surges coupling model. The significant wave height simulated by wave-tide-storm surges model shows the tidal modulation features in the western and southern coast of Korea. And the difference of significant wave height between two models reached up to 0.5 m. The coupling effect also can be identified in the wave direction, wave period and wave length. In addition, wave spectrum is also changeable due to coupling effect of wave-tide-storm surges model. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Simulation of hybrid wind/solar systems for typical areas of Brazil and Cuba

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Villar Ale, J.A.; Garcia, F.H.

Brazil and Cuba share a common history of serious problems related to the electrification of their isolated communities. Both countries have renewable resources of energy that allow, for instance, the use of photovoltaic and wind systems. These systems can be used in an integrated way, known as hybrid systems, achieving better reliability and economy. This work presents a simplified methodology for the design of such systems to be applied to the electrification of rural areas in both countries.

Arctic storms simulated in atmospheric general circulation models under uniform high, uniform low, and variable resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesler, E. L.; Bosler, P. A.; Taylor, M.

2016-12-01

The impact of strong extratropical storms on coastal communities is large, and the extent to which storms will change with a warming Arctic is unknown. Understanding storms in reanalysis and in climate models is important for future predictions. We know that the number of detected Arctic storms in reanalysis is sensitive to grid resolution. To understand Arctic storm sensitivity to resolution in climate models, we describe simulations designed to identify and compare Arctic storms at uniform low resolution (1 degree), at uniform high resolution (1/8 degree), and at variable resolution (1 degree to 1/8 degree). High-resolution simulations resolve more fine-scale structure and extremes, such as storms, in the atmosphere than a uniform low-resolution simulation. However, the computational cost of running a globally uniform high-resolution simulation is often prohibitive. The variable resolution tool in atmospheric general circulation models permits regional high-resolution solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The storms are identified using the open-source search algorithm, Stride Search. The uniform high-resolution simulation has over 50% more storms than the uniform low-resolution and over 25% more storms than the variable resolution simulations. Storm statistics from each of the simulations is presented and compared with reanalysis. We propose variable resolution as a cost-effective means of investigating physics/dynamics coupling in the Arctic environment. Future work will include comparisons with observed storms to investigate tuning parameters for high resolution models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2016-7402 A

Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.

2012-12-01

Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.

Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

2007-01-01

Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.; Goodman, Steven J.; LaCasse, Katherine M.; Cecil, Daniel J.

2008-01-01

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available.

The Role of Ionospheric Outflow Preconditioning in Determining Storm Geoeffectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, D. T.; Liemohn, M. W.; Ridley, A. J.

2012-12-01

It is now well accepted that ionospheric outflow plays an important role in the development of the plasma sheet and ring current during geomagnetic storms. Furthermore, even during quiet times, ionospheric plasma populates the magnetospheric lobes, producing a reservoir of hydrogen and oxygen ions. When the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) turns southward, this reservoir is connected to the plasma sheet and ring current through magnetospheric convection. Hence, the conditions of the ionosphere and magnetospheric lobes leading up to magnetospheric storm onset have important implications for storm development. Despite this, there has been little research on this preconditioning; most global simulations begin just before storm onset, neglecting preconditioning altogether. This work explores the role of preconditioning in determining the geoeffectiveness of storms using a coupled global model system. A model of ionospheric outflow (the Polar Wind Outflow Model, PWOM) is two-way coupled to a global magnetohydrodynamic model (the Block-Adaptive Tree Solar wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme, BATS-R-US), which in turn drives a ring current model (the Ring current Atmosphere interactions Model, RAM). This unique setup is used to simulate an idealized storm. The model is started at many different times, from 1 hour before storm onset to 12 hours before. The effects of storm preconditioning are examined by investigating the total ionospheric plasma content in the lobes just before onset, the total ionospheric contribution in the ring current just after onset, and the effects on Dst, magnetic elevation angle at geosynchronous, and total ring current energy density. This experiment is repeated for different solar activity levels as set by F10.7 flux. Finally, a synthetic double-dip storm is constructed to see how two closely spaced storms affect each other by changing the preconditioning environment. It is found that preconditioning of the magnetospheric lobes via ionospheric outflow greatly influences the geoeffectiveness of magnetospheric storms.

CTIPe model capabilities during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gomez, I.; Fedrizzi, M.; Codrescu, M.; Borries, C.

2017-12-01

The Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmaphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model is a global physics based model that will be used to explore the ionosphere - thermosphere system response to the onset of 2015 St. Patrick's day storm. This storm, which was one of the strongest geomagnetic storms of the solar cycle 24, was generated by a magnetic cloud followed by a coronal mass ejection (CME) impact. The ionospheric disturbances are identified to be caused by superposition of many effects, like prompt penetration electric fields, neutral winds, thermal expansion and composition changes. Over Europe, measurements like ionosonde observations and Total Electron Content (TEC) maps derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) indicate four storm phases (compression, start of main phase, partial recovery and second substorm) during 17th March 2015. CTIPe reproduces well the positive ionospheric storm phases, the compression of the ionosphere to a thin shell and the surges excited in the Auroral region. Furthermore, it reproduces well the changes in the neutral mass density measured by the SWARM satellites. Finally, CTIPe exhibits a coherent storm response for the thermospheric winds, temperature, composition and electron densities during the storm. These model results will be used to support the interpretation of the storms driving mechanisms.

Tropical storm interannual and interdecadal variability in an ensemble of GCM integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitart, Frederic Pol.

1999-11-01

A T42L18 Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed SSTs has been integrated for 10 years with 9 different initial conditions. An objective procedure for tracking model-generated tropical storms has been applied to this ensemble. Statistical tools have been applied to the ensemble frequency, intensity and location of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific and the western North Atlantic. An EOF analysis of local SSts and a combined EOF analysis of vertical wind shear, 200 mb and 850 mb vorticity indicate that the simulated tropical storm interannual variability is mostly constrained by the large scale circulation as in observations. The model simulates a realistic interannual variability of tropical storms over the western North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and Australian basin where the model simulates a realistic large scale circulation. Several experiments with the atmospheric GCM forced by imposed SSTs demonstrate that the GCM simulates a realistic impact of ENSO on the simulated Atlantic tropical storms. In addition the GCM simulates fewer tropical storms over the western North Atlantic with SSTs of the 1950s than with SSTs of the 1970s in agreement with observations. Tropical storms simulated with RAS and with MCA have been compared to evaluate their sensitivity to a change in cumulus parameterization. Composites of tropical storm structure indicate stronger tropical storms with higher warm cores with MCA. An experiment using the GFDL hurricane model and several theoretical calculations indicate that the mean state may be responsible for the difference in intensity and in the height of the warm core. With the RAS scheme, increasing the threshold which determines when convection can occur increases the tropical storm frequency almost linearly. The increase of tropical storm frequency seems to be linked to an increase of CAPE. Tropical storms predicted by a coupled model produce a strong cooling of SSTs and their intensity is lower than in the simulations. An ensemble of coupled GCM integrations displays some skill in forecasting the tropical storm frequency when starting on July 1st.

The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

2016-01-01

The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-07-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-04-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/14 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross-section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pachauri, Shonali; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Brew-Hammond, Abeeku; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

2013-06-01

A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves by 2030. Our analysis indicates that these targets can be achieved with additional investment of US200565-86 billion per year until 2030 combined with dedicated policies. Only a combination of policies that lowers costs for modern cooking fuels and stoves, along with more rapid electrification, can enable the realization of these goals. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of accounting for varying demands and affordability across heterogeneous household groups in both analysis and policy setting. While the investments required are significant, improved access to modern cooking fuels alone can avert between 0.6 and 1.8 million premature deaths annually in 2030 and enhance wellbeing substantially.

Electrification of the transportation sector offers limited country-wide greenhouse gas reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinrenken, Christoph J.; Lackner, Klaus S.

2014-03-01

Compared with conventional propulsion, plugin and hybrid vehicles may offer reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, regional air/noise pollution, petroleum dependence, and ownership cost. Comparing only plugins and hybrids amongst themselves, and focusing on GHG, relative merits of different options have been shown to be more nuanced, depending on grid-carbon-intensity, range and thus battery manufacturing and weight, and trip patterns. We present a life-cycle framework to compare GHG emissions for three drivetrains (plugin-electricity-only, gasoline-only-hybrid, and plugin-hybrid) across driving ranges and grid-carbon-intensities, for passenger cars, vans, buses, or trucks (well-to-wheel plus storage manufacturing). Parameter and model uncertainties are quantified via sensitivity analyses. We find that owing to the interplay of range, GHG/km, and portions of country-wide kms accessible to electrification, GHG reductions achievable from plugins (whether electricity-only or hybrids) are limited even when assuming low-carbon future grids. Furthermore, for policy makers considering GHG from electricity and transportation sectors combined, plugin technology may in fact increase GHG compared to gasoline-only-hybrids, regardless of grid-carbon-intensity.

Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

2013-01-01

Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

A microcomputer model for simulating pressurized flow in a storm sewer system : interim report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-01-01

A study is being conducted on the development of a microcomputer model for simulating storm sewer flow under surcharged or pressurized conditions. Several existing models, including the EPA Storm Water Management Hodel (SYMM) and the Illinois Urban D...

The effect of wave current interactions on the storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Lian; Liu, Huiqing; Peng, Machuan

The effects of wave-current interactions on the storm surge and inundation induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal regions are examined by using a three-dimensional (3-D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3-D storm surge and inundation modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton ocean model (POM), whereas the wave modeling component is based on the third-generation wave model, simulating waves nearshore (SWAN). The results indicate that the effects of wave-induced surface, bottom, and radiation stresses can separately or in combination produce significant changes in storm surge and inundation. The effects of waves vary spatially. In some areas, the contribution of waves to peak storm surge during Hurricane Hugo reached as high as 0.76 m which led to substantial changes in the inundation and drying areas simulated by the storm surge model.

Effect of hurricane paths on storm surge response at Tianjin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou

2012-06-01

A hurricane induced storm surge simulation system was developed for Tianjin coast, which consists of a hurricane model and a storm surge model. The peak storm surge result of the simulation agreed well with that of the observation. Three observed paths (Rita, Mimie and WINNIE) and a hypothetical path (Rita2) were chosen as the selective hurricane paths according to their positions relative to Tianjin. The sensitivity of Tianjin storm surge to the four paths was investigated using the validated storm surge simulation system. Three groups of experiments were done. In group one, the models were forced by the wind field and air pressure; in group two and three the models were forced by the wind only and the air pressure only respectively. In the experiments, the hurricane moved with a fixed speed and an intensity of 50 year return period. The simulation results show that path of the type Rita2 is the easiest to cause storm surge disaster in Tianjin, and the effect of air pressure forcing is most evident for path of the type Rita in Tianjin storm surge process. The above conclusions were analyzed through the evolution of the wind fields and the air pressure distributions. Comparing the experiment results of Group one, two and three, it can be seen that the storm surge is mainly induced by the wind forcing and the nonlinear interaction between the effect of wind forcing and air pressure forcing on the storm surge tends to weaken the storm surge.

A numerical study of wave-current interaction through surface and bottom stresses: Coastal ocean response to Hurricane Fran of 1996

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Wu, K.

2003-02-01

A three-dimensional wave-current coupled modeling system is used to examine the influence of waves on coastal currents and sea level. This coupled modeling system consists of the wave model-WAM (Cycle 4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The results from this study show that it is important to incorporate surface wave effects into coastal storm surge and circulation models. Specifically, we find that (1) storm surge models without coupled surface waves generally under estimate not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment, (2) introducing wave-induced surface stress effect into storm surge models can significantly improve storm surge prediction, (3) incorporating wave-induced bottom stress into the coupled wave-current model further improves storm surge prediction, and (4) calibration of the wave module according to minimum error in significant wave height does not necessarily result in an optimum wave module in a wave-current coupled system for current and storm surge prediction.

NAVAJO ELECTRIFICATION DEMONSTRATION PROJECT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Terry W. Battiest

2008-06-11

The Navajo Electrification Demonstration Project (NEDP) is a multi-year project which addresses the electricity needs of the unserved and underserved Navajo Nation, the largest American Indian tribe in the United States. The program serves to cumulatively provide off-grid electricty for families living away from the electricty infrastructure, line extensions for unserved families living nearby (less than 1/2 mile away from) the electricity, and, under the current project called NEDP-4, the construction of a substation to increase the capacity and improve the quality of service into the central core region of the Navajo Nation.

Enabling fast charging - Introduction and overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michelbacher, Christopher; Ahmed, Shabbir; Bloom, Ira; Burnham, Andrew; Carlson, Barney; Dias, Fernando; Dufek, Eric J.; Jansen, Andrew N.; Keyser, Matthew; Markel, Anthony; Meintz, Andrew; Mohanpurkar, Manish; Pesaran, Ahmad; Scoffield, Don; Shirk, Matthew; Stephens, Thomas; Tanim, Tanvir; Vijayagopal, Ram; Zhang, Jiucai

2017-11-01

The pursuit of U.S. energy security and independence has taken many different forms throughout the many production and consumption sectors. For consumer transportation, a greater reliance on power train electrification has gained traction due to the inherent efficiencies of these platforms, particularly through the use of electric motors and batteries. Vehicle electrification can be generalized into three primary categories-hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs); the latter two, PHEVs and BEVs, are often referred to as plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs).

A numerical study on hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

2006-08-01

A storm surge and inundation model is configured in Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal region to study the harbor's response to hurricanes. The hydrodynamic component of the modeling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model, and a scheme with multiple inundation speed options is imbedded in the model for the inundation calculation. Historic observations (Hurricane Hugo and its related storm surge and inundation) in the Charleston Harbor region indicate that among three possible inundation speeds in the model, taking Ct (gd)1/2 (Ct is a terrain-related parameter) as the inundation speed is the best choice. Choosing a different inundation speed in the model has effects not only on inundation area but also on storm surge height. A nesting technique is necessary for the model system to capture the mesoscale feature of a hurricane and meanwhile to maintain a higher horizontal resolution in the harbor region, where details of the storm surge and inundation are required. Hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation are very sensitive to storm tracks. Twelve hurricanes with different tracks are simulated to investigate how Charleston Harbor might respond to tracks that are parallel or perpendicular to the coastline or landfall at Charleston at different angles. Experiments show that large differences of storm surge and inundation may have occurred if Hurricane Hugo had approached Charleston Harbor with a slightly different angle. A hurricane's central pressure, radius of maximum wind, and translation speed have their own complicated effects on surge and inundation when the hurricane approaches the coast on different tracks. Systematic experiments are performed in order to illustrate how each of such factors, or a combination of them, may affect the storm surge height and inundation area in the Charleston Harbor region. Finally, suggestions are given on how this numerical model system may be used for hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation forecasting.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Fuyu; Collins, William D.; Wehner, Michael F.

High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the tropical storm simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, andmore » mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariant.« less

Quantifications of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on TEC and NmF2 during 2013 Mar. event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Tsagouri, I.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

2016-12-01

We investigate the ionospheric response to 2013 Mar. geomagnetic storm event using GPS TEC, ISR and ionosonde observations in North American sector. In order to quantify variations of TEC and NmF2 (or foF2) due to the storm, we remove the background quiet-time values (e.g., TEC of one day prior to the storm, NmF2 median and average of five quietest days for 30 days prior to the storm). In addition, in order to assess modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on TEC and NmF2, we compare the observations with various model simulations, which are obtained from empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. Further, we investigate how uncertainty in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) impacts on TEC and NmF2 during the geomagnetic storm event. For this uncertainty study, we use a physics-based coupled ionosphere-thermosphere model, CTIPe, and solar wind parameters obtained from ensemble of WSA-ENLIL+Cone model simulations. This study has been supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) at the Goddard Space Flight Center. Model outputs and observational data used for the study will be permanently posted at the CCMC website (http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the space science communities to use.

Rural electrification in multiethnic Arizona: A study of power, urbanization and change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glaser, Leah Suzanne

2002-01-01

From as early as the 1880s until as late as the 1970s, electrical power served as a critical tool for bringing America's diverse western communities into an urban industrial era. This study examines the process of electrification in three demographically diverse rural regions of Eastern Arizona. These three regions include the valleys of the Southeast, the White Mountains, and the Navajo Reservation to the north. While federal programs aided rural residents, local and regional factors determined the timing and nature of electrification and its impact. Access to electricity depended upon economics and technological advances, as well as a combination of local community and regional characteristics such as location, landscape, demographics, politics, and culture. At the turn of the century, electricity, with its elaborate and extensive infrastructure of wires, towers, and poles, emerged across America's cultural landscapes as the industrial era's most prominent symbol of progress, power, and a modern, urban lifestyle. Technological innovations and mechanization flourished, but primarily in the urban areas of the Northeast. People living outside concentrated settlements, of all ethnic backgrounds, had few hopes for delivery due to the cost of building power lines to a limited market. Arizona's rural population has historically been ethnically diverse, and its landscape varies from desert valleys to mountains of alpine forest. The federal government owns much of the land. Aided by federal guidance and funding sources like the New Deal's Rural Electrification Administration (REA), the existing rural communities took the initiative and constructed electrical systems specific to their local and regional needs. While products of the communities that built them, these systems symbolized and defined newly urbanized regions within the context of old rural landscapes, lifestyles, and traditions. In some ways the rural electrification process urbanized rural Arizona. The transmission and distribution lines that eventually crossed rural farms, mountains, valleys, and ranges, connected isolated communities, towns, and settlements, stimulated household modernization, and promoted economic change. Although this process may have occurred at different times for different populations, the resulting electrical systems were locally initiated, controlled, and customized to the needs and characteristics of the region and its component communities.

XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

2014-05-01

Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be used to help optimise design criteria for gravel barriers to reduce their vulnerability and enhance their coastal protection ability.

Factors associated with ureteral burn injury from an electrified guidewire.

PubMed

Capello, Seth A; Gordetsky, Jennifer; Erturk, Erdal; Yao, Jorge; Joseph, Jean V

2008-06-01

During ureteroscopic procedures, electrocautery is often utilized in the presence of an intra-ureteral guidewire. Inadvertent electrification of the guidewire may occur if the active electrode comes into contact with the guidewire, potentially resulting in a ureteral burn injury. This study investigates under what conditions electrification of a ureteral guidewire would result in ureteral burn injury. Porcine kidney/ureter units were tested in a saline bath using a guidewire within the ureter. The collecting system was filled with either saline or water and the guidewire was electrified with varying power and mode settings. The contact area between the wire and ureter was adjusted to 1/2 or 1/4 of the total ureteral length. The ureters were then inspected for evidence of burn injury microscopically by a pathologist in a blinded fashion. Ten kidney/ureter units were tested. Four units were filled with saline and none of these demonstrated any burn injury. Six kidney/ureter units were filled with water prior to electrification of the wire. Small amounts of burned tissue were noted in those with the full length of the ureter exposed. Moderate to severe burning was present in those with 1/2 of the ureter exposed. Ureters exposed to 120-W cutting current had more injury than those exposed to 80-W coagulation current. Inadvertent electrification of a ureteral guidewire does not necessarily result in ureteral burn injury. The presence and extent of ureteral injury depends primarily on the irrigating fluid used, as well as the amount of ureter exposed to the electrified guidewire.

Multiscale assessment of progress of electrification in Indonesia based on brightness level derived from nighttime satellite imagery.

PubMed

Ramdani, Fatwa; Setiani, Putri

2017-06-01

Availability of electricity can be used as an indicator to proximate parameters related to human well-being. Overall, the electrification process in Indonesia has been accelerating in the past two decades. Unfortunately, monitoring the country's progress on its effort to provide wider access to electricity poses challenges due to inconsistency of data provided by each national bureau, and limited availability of information. This study attempts to provide a reliable measure by employing nighttime satellite imagery to observe and to map the progress of electrification within a duration of 20 years, from 1993 to 2013. Brightness of 67,021 settlement-size points in 1993, 2003, and 2013 was assessed using data from DMSP/OLS instruments to study the electrification progress in the three service regions (Sumatera, Java-Bali, and East Indonesia) of the country's public electricity company, PLN. Observation of all service areas shows that the increase in brightness, which correspond with higher electricity development and consumption, has positive correlation with both population density (R 2  = 0.70) and urban change (R 2  = 0.79). Moreover, urban change has a stronger correlation with brightness, which is probably due to the high energy consumption in urban area per capita. This study also found that the brightness in Java-Bali region is very dominant, while the brightness in other areas has been lagging during the period of analysis. The slow development of electricity infrastructure, particularly in major parts of East Indonesia region, affects the low economic growth in some areas and formed vicious cycle.

An empirical probability density distribution of planetary ionosphere storms with geomagnetic precursors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, Tamara; Stanislawska, Iwona; Arikan, Feza; Arikan, Orhan

The probability of occurrence of the positive and negative planetary ionosphere storms is evaluated using the W index maps produced from Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, provided by Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and transformed from geographic coordinates to magnetic coordinates frame. The auroral electrojet AE index and the equatorial disturbance storm time Dst index are investigated as precursors of the global ionosphere storm. The superposed epoch analysis is performed for 77 intense storms (Dst≤-100 nT) and 227 moderate storms (-100

Forecasting Dust Storms Using the CARMA-Dust Model and MM5 Weather Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnum, B. H.; Winstead, N. S.; Wesely, J.; Hakola, A.; Colarco, P.; Toon, O. B.; Ginoux, P.; Brooks, G.; Hasselbarth, L. M.; Toth, B.; Sterner, R.

2002-12-01

An operational model for the forecast of dust storms in Northern Africa, the Middle East and Southwest Asia has been developed for the United States Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). The dust forecast model uses the 5th generation Penn State Mesoscale Meteorology Model (MM5), and a modified version of the Colorado Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA). AFWA conducted a 60 day evaluation of the dust model to look at the model's ability to forecast dust storms for short, medium and long range (72 hour) forecast periods. The study used satellite and ground observations of dust storms to verify the model's effectiveness. Each of the main mesoscale forecast theaters was broken down into smaller sub-regions for detailed analysis. The study found the forecast model was able to forecast dust storms in Saharan Africa and the Sahel region with an average Probability of Detection (POD)exceeding 68%, with a 16% False Alarm Rate (FAR). The Southwest Asian theater had average POD's of 61% with FAR's averaging 10%.

Development and operation of a mobile test facility for education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Christopher T.

The automotive industry saw a large shift towards vehicle electrification after the turn of the century. It became necessary to ensure that new and existing engineers were qualified to design and calibrate these new systems. To ensure this training, Michigan Tech received a grant to develop a curriculum based around vehicle electrification. As part of this agenda, the Michigan Tech Mobile Laboratory was developed to provide hands-on training for professional engineers and technicians in hybrid electric vehicles and vehicle electrification. The Mobile Lab has since then increased the scope of the delivered curriculum to include other automotive areas and even customizable course content to meet specific needs. This thesis outlines the development of the Mobile Laboratory and its powertrain test facilities. The focus of this thesis is to discuss the different hardware and software systems within the lab and test cells. Detailed instructions on the operation and maintenance of each of the systems are discussed. In addition, this thesis outlines the setup and operation of the necessary equipment for several of the experiments for the on and off campus courses and seminars.

Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Numerical Simulation of the 9-10 June 1972 Black Hills Storm Using CSU RAMS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nair, U. S.; Hjelmfelt, Mark R.; Pielke, Roger A., Sr.

1997-01-01

Strong easterly flow of low-level moist air over the eastern slopes of the Black Hills on 9-10 June 1972 generated a storm system that produced a flash flood, devastating the area. Based on observations from this storm event, and also from the similar Big Thompson 1976 storm event, conceptual models have been developed to explain the unusually high precipitation efficiency. In this study, the Black Hills storm is simulated using the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. Simulations with homogeneous and inhomogeneous initializations and different grid structures are presented. The conceptual models of storm structure proposed by previous studies are examined in light of the present simulations. Both homogeneous and inhomogeneous initialization results capture the intense nature of the storm, but the inhomogeneous simulation produced a precipitation pattern closer to the observed pattern. The simulations point to stationary tilted updrafts, with precipitation falling out to the rear as the preferred storm structure. Experiments with different grid structures point to the importance of removing the lateral boundaries far from the region of activity. Overall, simulation performance in capturing the observed behavior of the storm system was enhanced by use of inhomogeneous initialization.

Modeling the refraction of microbaroms by the winds of a large maritime storm.

PubMed

Blom, Philip; Waxler, Roger

2017-12-01

Continuous infrasonic signals produced by the ocean surface interacting with the atmosphere, termed microbaroms, are known to be generated by a number of phenomena including large maritime storms. Storm generated microbaroms exhibit axial asymmetry when observed at locations far from the storm due to the source location being offset from the storm center. Because of this offset, a portion of the microbarom energy will radiate towards the storm center and interact with the winds in the region. Detailed here are predictions for the propagation of microbaroms through an axisymmetric, three-dimensional model storm. Geometric propagation methods have been utilized and the predicted horizontal refraction is found to produce signals that appear to emanate from a virtual source near the storm center when observed far from the storm. This virtual source near the storm center is expected to be observed only from a limited arc around the storm system with increased extent associated with more intense wind fields. This result implies that identifying the extent of the arc observing signal from the virtual source could provide a means to estimate the wind structure using infrasonic observations far from the storm system.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

2017-12-01

Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

An estimation of the condensation rates in three severe storm systems from satellite observations of the convective mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mack, R. A.; Wylie, D. P.

1982-01-01

A technique was developed for estimating the condensation rates of convective storms using satellite measurements of cirrus anvil expansion rates and radiosonde measurements of environmental water vapor. Three cases of severe convection in Oklahoma were studied and a diagnostic model was developed for integrating radiosonde data with satellite data. Two methods were used to measure the anvil expansion rates - the expansion of isotherm contours on infrared images, and the divergent motions of small brightness anomalies tracked on the visible images. The differences between the two methods were large as the storms developed, but these differences became small in the latter stage of all three storms. A comparison between the three storms indicated that the available moisture in the lowest levels greatly affected the rain rates of the storms. This was evident from both the measured rain rates of the storms and the condensation rates estimated by the model. The possibility of using this diagnostic model for estimating the intensities of convective storms also is discussed.

The eSurge-Venice project: how satellite data can improve the storm surge forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; Vignudelli, Stefano; Donlon, Craig; De Biasio, Francesco; Della Valle, Antonio; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco

The Data User Element (DUE) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) is funding two projects (eSurge and eSurge-Venice) aimed to demonstrate the improvement of the storm surge forecasting through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data. eSurge-Venice (http://www.esurge-venice.eu/), is specifically focused on the Gulf of Venice, northern Adriatic Sea. The project objectives are: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon since 1999; b) Provide the available satellite EO data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts; c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service (eSurge-Venice live) of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services; d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data. Present storm surge models use atmospheric model wind fields as forcing. These are know to underestimate the wind in small basins like the Adriatic Sea (~1000 km by 300 km), where the orography plays an important role in shaping the winds. Therefore there is the need to verify and tune the atmospheric model wind fields used in the storm surge modeling, an activity which can easily done using satellite scatterometer winds. The project is now in the middle of his life, and promising preliminary results have been achieved using satellite scatterometer wind data to forge the atmospheric model wind fields forcing the storm surge model. This contribution will present the methodology adopted to tune the model wind fields according to the bias with scatterometer winds and the improvements induced in the storm surge model hindcast.

Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models.

PubMed

Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2013-01-01

Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

Ionospheric storms—A challenge for empirical forecast of the total electron content

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borries, C.; Berdermann, J.; Jakowski, N.; Wilken, V.

2015-04-01

Since the last decades, the functioning of society depends more and more on well-functioning communication and navigation systems. As the availability and reliability of most of these satellite-based systems can be severely impacted by ionospheric storms, the accurate forecast of these events becomes a required task for mitigating social and economic risks. Here we aim to make initial steps toward an empirical model for ionospheric perturbations related to space weather events that are observable in the total electron content (TEC). The perturbation TEC forecast model will be a fast and robust approach, improving TEC forecasts based on climatological models during storm conditions. The derivation of such a model is a challenging task, because although a general dependence of the storm features (enhancement or depletion of electron density) on the storm onset time, local time, season and geomagnetic latitude is well known, there is a large deviation from the mean behavior. For a better understanding of storm conditions, this paper presents analyses of ionospheric storms observed in the TEC, broken down into diverse classes of storms. It provides a detailed characterization of the typical ionospheric storm behavior over Europe from high to midlatitudes, beyond case studies. Generally, the typical clear strong TEC enhancement starting in high latitudes and propagating equatorward is found to be strongest for storms starting in the morning hours independent of the season. In midlatitudes, it is strongest during noon. In addition, a clear difference between summer and winter storms is reported. While only winter storms develop high-latitude TEC enhancements, only summer storms typically exhibit TEC depletions during the storm recovery phase. During winter storms TEC enhancements can also occur the day following the storm onset, in contrast to summer storms. Strong correlation of TEC perturbation amplitudes to the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field and to a proxy of the polar cap potential are shown especially for summer midlatitude TEC enhancements during storms with and onset in the morning hours (6 to 12 UT over Europe) and for winter high-latitude TEC enhancements (around 60∘N). The results indicate the potential to derive improved predictions of maximum TEC deviations during space weather events, based on solar wind measurements.

An automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection based on ogc web processing services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, F.; Shea, G. Y. K.; Wong, M. S.; Campbell, J.

2014-11-01

Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on public health. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the major uncertainties in global climatic modelling as it is known to have a significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. The complexity of building scientific dust storm models is coupled with the scientific computation advancement, ongoing computing platform development, and the development of heterogeneous Earth Observation (EO) networks. It is a challenging task to develop an integrated and automated scheme for dust storm detection that combines Geo-Processing frameworks, scientific models and EO data together to enable the dust storm detection and tracking processes in a dynamic and timely manner. This study develops an automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection and tracking based on the Web Processing Services (WPS) initiated by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The presented WPS framework consists of EO data retrieval components, dust storm detecting and tracking component, and service chain orchestration engine. The EO data processing component is implemented based on OPeNDAP standard. The dust storm detecting and tracking component combines three earth scientific models, which are SBDART model (for computing aerosol optical depth (AOT) of dust particles), WRF model (for simulating meteorological parameters) and HYSPLIT model (for simulating the dust storm transport processes). The service chain orchestration engine is implemented based on Business Process Execution Language for Web Service (BPEL4WS) using open-source software. The output results, including horizontal and vertical AOT distribution of dust particles as well as their transport paths, were represented using KML/XML and displayed in Google Earth. A serious dust storm, which occurred over East Asia from 26 to 28 Apr 2012, is used to test the applicability of the proposed WPS framework. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex EO data and scientific model integration problem by using a framework and scientific workflow approach together. The experimental result shows that this newly automated and integrated framework can be used to give advance near real-time warning of dust storms, for both environmental authorities and public. The methods presented in this paper might be also generalized to other types of Earth system models, leading to improved ease of use and flexibility.

Influence of Electrification of Droplet on Hydrophobicity Reduction of Polymer Material during a Dynamic Drop Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haji, Kenichi; Shiibara, Daiki; Arata, Yoshihiro; Sakoda, Tatsuya; Otsubo, Masahisa

The dynamic drop test was proposed as a method to evaluate hydrophobicity reduction of polymer materials. In this test, the formation change of a water channel was confirmed, and thereafter, the remained droplets and the dropped droplets on the sampled surface were repulsed each other. The distributions of electrification on the droplet and the sample surface were measured. The influence of the electrified droplet on the hydrophobicity reduction was examined. The results showed that the polarity on the sample surface changed by the dropped droplet, leading to the hydrophobicity loss.

Does Electrification Spur the Fertility Transition? Evidence From Indonesia.

PubMed

Grimm, Michael; Sparrow, Robert; Tasciotti, Luca

2015-10-01

We analyze various pathways through which access to electricity affects fertility in Indonesia, using a district difference-in-difference approach. The electrification rate increased by 65 % over the study period, and our results suggest that the subsequent effects on fertility account for about 18 % to 24 % of the overall decline in fertility. A key channel is increased exposure to television. Using in addition several waves of Demographic and Health Surveys, we find suggestive evidence that increased exposure to TV affects, in particular, fertility preferences and increases the effective use of contraception. Reduced child mortality seems to be another important pathway.

Wind energy applications guide

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

anon.

2001-01-01

The brochure is an introduction to various wind power applications for locations with underdeveloped transmission systems, from remote water pumping to village electrification. It includes an introductory section on wind energy, including wind power basics and system components and then provides examples of applications, including water pumping, stand-alone systems for home and business, systems for community centers, schools, and health clinics, and examples in the industrial area. There is also a page of contacts, plus two specific example applications for a wind-diesel system for a remote station in Antarctica and one on wind-diesel village electrification in Russia.

Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Fiorino, Steven; Mugnai, Alberto; Panegrossi, Giulia; Tripoli, Gregory; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical properties of the storms. These results have bearing on precipitation remote sensing from space, and the role of modeling in designing precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Solar radio continuum storms and a breathing magnetic field model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

Radio noise continuum emissions observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies are, in general, associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. These continuum emission sources, often called type I storm sources, are often associated with type III burst storm activity from metric to hectometric wave frequencies. This storm activity is, therefore, closely connected with the development of these continuum emission sources. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally precedes, by several days, the emission of these noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. In order for these storms to develop, the growth of sunspot groups into complex types is very important in addition to the increase of the average magnetic field intensity and area of these groups. After giving a review on the theory of these noise continuum storm emissions, a model is briefly considered to explain the relation of the emissions to the storms.

Simulation of the fine structure of the 12 July 1996 Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols and Ozone (STERAO-A) storm accounting for effects of terrain and interaction with mesoscale flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Pickering, Kenneth; Decaria, Alex; Tao, W.-K.; Scala, John; Ott, Lesley; Bartels, Diana; Matejka, Thomas

2005-07-01

Vertical mixing of chemical tracers and optically active constituents by deep convection affects regional and global chemical balances in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. This important process is not explicitly resolved in global and regional models and has to be parameterized. However, mixing depends strongly on the spatial structure, strength, and temporal evolution of the particular storm, complicating parameterization of this important effect in the large-scale models. To better quantify dynamic fields and associated mixing processes, we simulate a thunderstorm observed on 12 July 1996 during the STERAO-A (Stratosphere-Troposphere Experiment: Radiation, Aerosols, and Ozone) Deep Convection field project using the Goddard Cloud Ensemble (GCE) model. The 12 July STERAO-A storm had very complex temporal and spatial structure. The meteorological environment and evolution of the storm were significantly different than those of the 10 July STERAO-A storm extensively discussed in previous studies. Our 2-D and 3-D GCE model runs with uniform one-sounding initialization were unable to reproduce the full life cycle of the 12 July storm observed by the CHILL radar system. To describe the storm evolution, we modified the 3-D GCE model to include the effects of terrain and the capability of using nonuniform initial fields. We conducted a series of numerical experiments and reproduced the observed life cycle and fine spatial structure of the storm. The main characteristics of the 3-D simulation of the 12 July storm were compared with observations, with 2-D simulations of the same storm, and with the evolution of the 10 July storm. The simulated 3-D convection appears to be stronger and more realistic than in our 2-D simulations. Having developed in a less unstable environment than the 10 July 1996 STERAO-A storm, our simulation of the 12 July storm produced weaker but sustainable convection that was significantly fed by wind shear instability in the lower troposphere. The time evolution, direction, and speed of propagation of the storm were determined by interaction with the nonuniform background mesoscale flow. For example, storm intensity decreased drastically when the storm left the region with large convective available potential energy. The model appears to be successful in reproducing the rectangular four-cell structure of the convection. The distributions of convergence, vertical vorticity, and position of the inflow level in the later single-cell regime compare favorably with the airborne Doppler radar observations. This analysis allowed us to better understand the role of terrain and mesoscale circulation in the development of a midlatitude deep convective system and associated convective mixing. Wind, temperature, hydrometeor, and turbulent diffusion coefficient data from the cloud model simulations were provided for off-line 3-D cloud-scale chemical transport simulations discussed in the companion paper by DeCaria et al. (2005).

Mathematical modeling of the moderate storm on 28 February 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eroglu, Emre

2018-04-01

The sun is an active star with plasma-filled prominences. The sudden ejection of the solar plasma creates storms in the form of bursting or spraying. A magnetospheric storm is a typical phenomenon that lasts 1-3 days and involves all magnetosphere from the earth's ionosphere to the magnetotail. The storms are known by different categorical names such as weak, moderate, strong, intense. One of these is the moderate geomagnetic storm on February 28, 2008, which occurred in the 24th solar cycle. The reason for discussing this storm is that it is the first moderate storm in the 24th solar cycle. In this study, we investigate the storm and entered the 24th solar cycle. The correlation among the parametres has been investigated via statistics. The solar wind parameters and the zonal geomagnetic indices have been analyzed separately and then the interaction with each other has been exhibited. The author has concluded the work with two new nonlinear mathematical models. These explain the storm with 79.1% and 87.5% accuracy.

Stability and bistability in a one-dimensional model of coastal foredune height

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldstein, Evan B.; Moore, Laura J.

2016-05-01

On sandy coastlines, foredunes provide protection from coastal storms, potentially sheltering low areas—including human habitat—from elevated water level and wave erosion. In this contribution we develop and explore a one-dimensional model for coastal dune height based on an impulsive differential equation. In the model, coastal foredunes continuously grow in a logistic manner as the result of a biophysical feedback and they are destroyed by recurrent storm events that are discrete in time. Modeled dunes can be in one of two states: a high "resistant-dune" state or a low "overwash-flat" state. The number of stable states (equilibrium dune heights) depends on the value of two parameters, the nondimensional storm frequency (the ratio of storm frequency to the intrinsic growth rate of dunes) and nondimensional storm magnitude (the ratio of total water level during storms to the maximum theoretical dune height). Three regions of phase space exist (1) when nondimensional storm frequency is small, a single high resistant-dune attracting state exists; (2) when both the nondimensional storm frequency and magnitude are large, there is a single overwash-flat attracting state; (3) within a defined region of phase space model dunes exhibit bistable behavior—both the resistant-dune and the low overwash-flat states are stable. Comparisons to observational studies suggest that there is evidence for each state to exist independently, the coexistence of both states (i.e., segments of barrier islands consisting of overwash-flats and segments of islands having large dunes that resist erosion by storms), as well as transitions between states.

Rainfall Data Simulation

Treesearch

T.L. Rogerson

1980-01-01

A simple simulation model to predict rainfall for individual storms in central Arkansas is described. Output includes frequency distribution tables for days between storms and for storm size classes; a storm summary by day number (January 1 = 1 and December 31 = 365) and rainfall amount; and an annual storm summary that includes monthly values for rainfall and number...

Validation of foF2 and TEC Modeling During Geomagnetic Disturbed Times: Preliminary Outcomes of International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Tsagouri, I.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

2017-12-01

To address challenges of assessment of space weather modeling capabilities, the CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) is leading the newly established "International Forum for Space Weather Modeling Capabilities Assessment." This presentation will focus on preliminary outcomes of the International Forum on validation of modeled foF2 and TEC during geomagnetic storms. We investigate the ionospheric response to 2013 Mar. geomagnetic storm event using ionosonde and GPS TEC observations in North American and European sectors. To quantify storm impacts on foF2 and TEC, we first quantify quiet-time variations of foF2 and TEC (e.g., the median and the average of the five quietest days for the 30 days during quiet conditions). It appears that the quiet time variation of foF2 and TEC are about 10% and 20-30%, respectively. Therefore, to quantify storm impact, we focus on foF2 and TEC changes during the storm main phase larger than 20% and 50%, respectively, compared to 30-day median. We find that in European sector, both foF2 and TEC response to the storm are mainly positive phase with foF2 increase of up to 100% and TEC increase of 150%. In North America sector, however, foF2 shows negative effects (up to about 50% decrease), while TEC shows positive response (the largest increase is about 200%). To assess modeling capability of reproducing the changes of foF2 and TEC due to the storm, we use various model simulations, which are obtained from empirical, physics-based, and data assimilation models. The performance of each model depends on the selected metrics, therefore, only one metrics is not enough to evaluate the models' predictive capabilities in capturing the storm impact. The performance of the model also varies with latitude and longitude.

Gross regional domestic product estimation: Application of two-way unbalanced panel data models to economic growth in East Nusa Tenggara province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wibowo, Wahyu; Sinu, Elisabeth B.; Setiawan

2017-03-01

The condition of East Nusa Tenggara Province which recently developed new districts can affect the number of information or data collected become unbalanced. One of the consequences of ignoring the data incompleteness is the estimator become not valid. Therefore, the analysis of unbalanced panel data is very crucial.The aim of this paper is to find the estimation of Gross Regional Domestic Product in East Nusa Tenggara Province using unbalanced panel data regression model for two-way error component which assume random effect model (REM). In this research, we employ Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) as regression coefficients estimation method. Since variance of the model is unknown, ANOVA method is considered to obtain the variance components in order to construct the variance-covariance matrix. The data used in this research is secondary data taken from Central Bureau of Statistics of East Nusa Tenggara Province in 21 districts period 2004-2013. The predictors are the number of labor over 15 years old (X1), electrification ratios (X2), and local revenues (X3) while Gross Regional Domestic Product based on constant price 2000 is the response (Y). The FGLS estimation result shows that the value of R2 is 80,539% and all the predictors chosen are significantly affect (α = 5%) the Gross Regional Domestic Product in all district of East Nusa Tenggara Province. Those variables are the number of labor over 15 years old (X1), electrification ratios (X2), and local revenues (X3) with 0,22986, 0,090476, and 0,14749 of elasticities, respectively.

A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

Impacts of land cover changes on hurricane storm surge in the lower Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denton, M.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2013-12-01

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States with more than 150 rivers draining into the bay's tidal wetlands. Coastal wetlands and vegetation play an important role in shaping the hydrodynamics of storm surge events by retaining water and slowing the propagation of storm surge. In this way coastal wetlands act as a natural barrier to inland flooding, particularly against less intense storms. Threats to wetlands come from both land development (residential or commercial/industrial) and sea level rise. The lower region of the Chesapeake Bay near its outlet is especially vulnerable to flooding from Atlantic storm surge brought in by hurricanes, tropical storms and nor'easters (e.g., hurricanes Isabel [2003] and Sandy [2012]). This region is also intensely developed with nearly 1.7 million residents within the greater Hampton Roads metropolitan area. Anthropogenic changes to land cover in the lower bay can directly impact basin drainage and storm surge propagation with impacts reaching beyond the immediate coastal zone to affect flooding in inland areas. While construction of seawall barriers around population centers may provide storm surge protection to a specifically defined area, these barriers deflect storm surge rather than attenuate it, underscoring the importance of wetlands. To analyze these impacts a framework was developed combining numerical simulations with a detailed hydrodynamic characterization of flow through coastal wetland areas. Storm surges were calculated using a hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) coupled to a wave model (SWAN) forced by an asymmetric hurricane vortex model using the FEMA region 3 unstructured mesh (2.3 million nodes) under a High Performance Computing (HPC) environment. Multiple model simulations were performed using historical hurricanes data and hypothetical storms to compare the predicted storm surge inundation with various levels of wetland reduction and/or beach hardening. These data were combined and overlaid with a geospatial inventory of critical infrastructure assets to evaluate the potential for storm damage associated with each level of wetland reduction. This poster will present quantitative analyses of the benefits and losses regarding storm surge inundation and damage from land cover changes in the study region.

Modeling North Atlantic Nor'easters With Modern Wave Forecast Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, Will; Toulany, Bechara; Roland, Aron; Dutour-Sikiric, Mathieu; Chen, Changsheng; Beardsley, Robert C.; Qi, Jianhua; Hu, Yongcun; Casey, Michael P.; Shen, Hui

2018-01-01

Three state-of-the-art operational wave forecast model systems are implemented on fine-resolution grids for the Northwest Atlantic. These models are: (1) a composite model system consisting of SWAN implemented within WAVEWATCHIII® (the latter is hereafter, WW3) on a nested system of traditional structured grids, (2) an unstructured grid finite-volume wave model denoted "SWAVE," using SWAN physics, and (3) an unstructured grid finite element wind wave model denoted as "WWM" (for "wind wave model") which uses WW3 physics. Models are implemented on grid systems that include relatively large domains to capture the wave energy generated by the storms, as well as including fine-resolution nearshore regions of the southern Gulf of Maine with resolution on the scale of 25 m to simulate areas where inundation and coastal damage have occurred, due to the storms. Storm cases include three intense midlatitude cases: a spring Nor'easter storm in May 2005, the Patriot's Day storm in 2007, and the Boxing Day storm in 2010. Although these wave model systems have comparable overall properties in terms of their performance and skill, it is found that there are differences. Models that use more advanced physics, as presented in recent versions of WW3, tuned to regional characteristics, as in the Gulf of Maine and the Northwest Atlantic, can give enhanced results.

A regional ocean model for the Southwest Pacific Ocean region to assess the risk of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natoo, N.; Paul, A.; Hadfield, M.; Jendersie, S.; Bornman, J.; de Lange, W.; Ye, W.; Schulz, M.

2012-04-01

New Zealand's coasts are not only affected by mid-latitude storms, but infrequently also by storms that originate from the tropics. Projections for the southern hemisphere's southwest Pacific island countries for the 21st century show a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks, which consequently might result in changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns. Furthermore, an increase in frequency of intense storms is expected for the New Zealand region, which will very likely increase the risk of storm surges and flooding of coastal and low-lying regions. We employ the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to assess the changes in the storm climate of the New Zealand region. The model set-up uses a resolution of ~50 km for the Southwest Pacific Ocean "parent domain" and ~10 km for the New Zealand "child domain", to well represent the major eddies that influence the climate of North Island. With the aim to later utilize this nested ocean model set-up as part of a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling system for the Southwest Pacific Ocean region, results for the 20th century will be presented. The simulated circulation is shown to be largely consistent with the observed regional oceanography.

Red Storm usage model :Version 1.12.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jefferson, Karen L.; Sturtevant, Judith E.

Red Storm is an Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) funded massively parallel supercomputer located at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The Red Storm Usage Model (RSUM) documents the capabilities and the environment provided for the FY05 Tri-Lab Level II Limited Availability Red Storm User Environment Milestone and the FY05 SNL Level II Limited Availability Red Storm Platform Milestone. This document describes specific capabilities, tools, and procedures to support both local and remote users. The model is focused on the needs of the ASC user working in the secure computing environments at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL),more » and SNL. Additionally, the Red Storm Usage Model maps the provided capabilities to the Tri-Lab ASC Computing Environment (ACE) requirements. The ACE requirements reflect the high performance computing requirements for the ASC community and have been updated in FY05 to reflect the community's needs. For each section of the RSUM, Appendix I maps the ACE requirements to the Limited Availability User Environment capabilities and includes a description of ACE requirements met and those requirements that are not met in that particular section. The Red Storm Usage Model, along with the ACE mappings, has been issued and vetted throughout the Tri-Lab community.« less

Hurdles to Overcome to Model Carrington Class Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engel, M.; Henderson, M. G.; Jordanova, V. K.; Morley, S.

2017-12-01

Large geomagnetic storms pose a threat to both space and ground based infrastructure. In order to help mitigate that threat a better understanding of the specifics of these storms is required. Various computer models are being used around the world to analyze the magnetospheric environment, however they are largely inadequate for analyzing the large and extreme storm time environments. Here we report on the first steps towards expanding and robustifying the RAM-SCB inner magnetospheric model, used in conjunction with BATS-R-US and the Space Weather Modeling Framework, in order to simulate storms with Dst > -400. These results will then be used to help expand our modelling capabilities towards including Carrington-class events.

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL QUALITY ASSURANCE REPORT: DYNAMIC WAVE FLOW ROUTING

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a computer-based tool for simulating storm water runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. In 2002 the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Water Supply and Water Resources Division partnered with the consulting firm CDM ...

Synoptic analysis and hindcast of an intense bow echo in Western Europe: The 09 June 2014 storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathias, Luca; Ermert, Volker; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Ludwig, Patrick; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2017-04-01

On Pentecost Monday of 09 June 2014, a severe mesoscale convective system (MCS) hit Belgium and Western Germany. This storm was one of the most severe thunderstorms in Germany for decades. The synoptic-scale and mesoscale characteristics of this storm are analyzed based on remote sensing data and in-situ measurements. Moreover, the forecast potential of the storm is evaluated using sensitivity experiments with a regional climate model. The key ingredients for the development of the Pentecost storm were the concurrent presence of low-level moisture, atmospheric conditional instability and wind shear. The synoptic and mesoscale analysis shows that the outflow of a decaying MCS above northern France triggered the storm, which exhibited the typical features of a bow echo like a mesovortex and rear inflow jet. This resulted in hurricane-force wind gusts (reaching 40 m/s) along a narrow swath in the Rhine-Ruhr region leading to substantial damage. Operational numerical weather predictions models mostly failed to forecast the storm, but high-resolution regional model hindcasts enable a realistic simulation of the storm. The model experiments reveal that the development of the bow echo is particularly sensitive to the initial wind field and the lower tropospheric moisture content. Correct initial and boundary conditions are therefore necessary for realistic numerical forecasts of such a bow echo event. We conclude that the Pentecost storm exhibited a comparable structure and a similar intensity to the observed bow echo systems in the United States.

Risk Assessment of Hurricane Storm Surge for Tampa Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2011-12-01

Hurricane storm surge presents a major hazard for the United States and many other coastal areas around the world. Risk assessment of current and future hurricane storm surge provides the basis for risk mitigation and related decision making. This study investigates the hurricane surge risk for Tampa Bay, located on the central west coast of Florida. Although fewer storms have made landfall in the central west Florida than in regions farther west in the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of U.S., Tampa Bay is highly vulnerable to storm surge due to its geophysical features. It is surrounded by low-lying lands, much of which may be inundated by a storm tide of 6 m. Also, edge waves trapped on the west Florida shelf can propagate along the coastline and affect the sea level outside the area of a forced storm surge; Tampa Bay may be affected by storms traversing some distance outside the Bay. Moreover, when the propagation speed of the edge wave is close to that of a storm moving parallel to the coast, resonance may occur and the water elevation in the Bay may be greatly enhanced. Therefore, Tampa Bay is vulnerable to storms with a broad spectrum of characteristics. We apply a model-based risk assessment method to carry out the investigation. To estimate the current surge risk, we apply a statistical/deterministic hurricane model to generate a set of 1500 storms for the Tampa area, under the observed current climate (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) estimated from the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis. To study the effect of climate change, we use four climate models, CNRM-CM3, ECHAM, GFDL-CM2.0, and MIROC3.2, respectively, to drive the hurricane model to generate four sets of 1500 Tampa storms under current climate conditions (represented by 1981-2000 statistics) and another four under future climate conditions of the IPCC-AR4 A1B emission scenario (represented by 2081-2100 statistics). Then, we apply two hydrodynamic models, the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model and the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model with grids of various resolutions to simulate the surges induced by the synthetic storms. The surge risk under each of the climate scenarios is depicted by a surge return level curve (exceedance probability curve). For the city of Tampa, the heights of the 100-year, 500-year, and 1000-year surges under the current climate are estimated to be 3.85, 5.66, and 6.31 m, respectively. Two of the four climate models predict that surge return periods will be significantly shortened in the future climates due to the change of storm climatology; the current 100-year surge may happen every 50 years or less, the 500-year surge every 200 years or less, and the 1000-year surge every 300 years or less. The other two climate models predict that the surge return periods will become moderately shorter or remain almost unchanged in the future climates. Extreme surges up to 12 m at Tampa appear in our simulations. Although occurring with very small probabilities, these extreme surges would have a devastating impact on the Tampa Bay area. By examining the generated synthetic surge database, we study the characteristics of the extreme storms at Tampa Bay, especially for the storms that may interact with edge waves along the Florida west coast.

Nanoscale charge transfer and diffusion at the MoS2/SiO2 interface by atomic force microscopy: contact injection versus triboelectrification.

PubMed

Xu, Rui; Ye, Shili; Xu, Kunqi; Lei, Le; Hussain, Sabir; Zheng, Zhiyue; Pang, Fei; Xing, Shuya; Liu, Xinmeng; Ji, Wei; Cheng, Zhihai

2018-08-31

Understanding the process of charge generation, transfer, and diffusion between two-dimensional (2D) materials and their supporting substrates is very important for potential applications of 2D materials. Compared with the systematic studies of triboelectric charging in a bulk sample, a fundamental understanding of the triboelectrification of the 2D material/insulator system is rather limited. Here, the charge transfer and diffusion of both the SiO 2 surface and MoS 2 /SiO 2 interface through contact electrification and frictional electrification are investigated systematically in situ by scanning Kelvin probe microscopy and dual-harmonic electrostatic force microscopy. Different from the simple static charge transfer between SiO 2 and the PtSi alloy atomic force microscope (AFM) tip, the charge transfer between the tip and the MoS 2 /SiO 2 system is complicated. Triboelectric charges, generated by contact or frictional electrification with the AFM tip, are trapped at the MoS 2 /SiO 2 interface and act as floating gates. The local charge discharge processes can be obtained by monitoring the surface potential. The charge decay time (τ) of the MoS 2 /SiO 2 interface is one (or two) orders of magnitude larger than the decay time τ of the SiO 2 surface. This work facilitates an understanding of the triboelectric and de-electrification of the interface between 2D materials and substrates. In addition to the charge transfer and diffusion, we demonstrate the nanopatterns of surface and interfacial charges, which have great potential for the application of self-assembly of charged nanostructures.

Discontinuous Galerkin methods for modeling Hurricane storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, Clint; Kubatko, Ethan J.; Westerink, Joannes J.; Trahan, Corey; Mirabito, Christopher; Michoski, Craig; Panda, Nishant

2011-09-01

Storm surge due to hurricanes and tropical storms can result in significant loss of life, property damage, and long-term damage to coastal ecosystems and landscapes. Computer modeling of storm surge can be used for two primary purposes: forecasting of surge as storms approach land for emergency planning and evacuation of coastal populations, and hindcasting of storms for determining risk, development of mitigation strategies, coastal restoration and sustainability. Storm surge is modeled using the shallow water equations, coupled with wind forcing and in some events, models of wave energy. In this paper, we will describe a depth-averaged (2D) model of circulation in spherical coordinates. Tides, riverine forcing, atmospheric pressure, bottom friction, the Coriolis effect and wind stress are all important for characterizing the inundation due to surge. The problem is inherently multi-scale, both in space and time. To model these problems accurately requires significant investments in acquiring high-fidelity input (bathymetry, bottom friction characteristics, land cover data, river flow rates, levees, raised roads and railways, etc.), accurate discretization of the computational domain using unstructured finite element meshes, and numerical methods capable of capturing highly advective flows, wetting and drying, and multi-scale features of the solution. The discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method appears to allow for many of the features necessary to accurately capture storm surge physics. The DG method was developed for modeling shocks and advection-dominated flows on unstructured finite element meshes. It easily allows for adaptivity in both mesh ( h) and polynomial order ( p) for capturing multi-scale spatial events. Mass conservative wetting and drying algorithms can be formulated within the DG method. In this paper, we will describe the application of the DG method to hurricane storm surge. We discuss the general formulation, and new features which have been added to the model to better capture surge in complex coastal environments. These features include modifications to the method to handle spherical coordinates and maintain still flows, improvements in the stability post-processing (i.e. slope-limiting), and the modeling of internal barriers for capturing overtopping of levees and other structures. We will focus on applications of the model to recent events in the Gulf of Mexico, including Hurricane Ike.

The DREAMS experiment flown on the ExoMars 2016 mission for the study of Martian environment during the dust storm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettanini, C.; Esposito, F.; Debei, S.; Molfese, C.; Colombatti, G.; Aboudan, A.; Brucato, J. R.; Cortecchia, F.; di Achille, G.; Guizzo, G. P.; Friso, E.; Ferri, F.; Marty, L.; Mennella, V.; Molinaro, R.; Schipani, P.; Silvestro, S.; Mugnuolo, R.; Pirrotta, S.; Marchetti, E.; International Dreams Team

2018-07-01

The DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk assessment and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface) instrument on Schiaparelli lander of ExoMars 2016 mission was an autonomous meteorological station designed to completely characterize the Martian atmosphere on surface, acquiring data not only on temperature, pressure, humidity, wind speed and its direction, but also on solar irradiance, dust opacity and atmospheric electrification; this comprehensive set of parameters would assist the quantification of risks and hazards for future manned exploration missions mainly related to the presence of airborne dust. Schiaparelli landing on Mars was in fact scheduled during the foreseen dust storm season (October 2016 in Meridiani Planum) allowing DREAMS to directly measure the characteristics of such extremely harsh environment. DREAMS instrument’s architecture was based on a modular design developing custom boards for analog and digital channel conditioning, power distribution, on board data handling and communication with the lander. The boards, connected through a common backbone, were hosted in a central electronic unit assembly and connected to the external sensors with dedicated harness. Designed with very limited mass and an optimized energy consumption, DREAMS was successfully tested to operate autonomously, relying on its own power supply, for at least two Martian days (sols) after landing on the planet. A total of three flight models were fully qualified before launch through an extensive test campaign comprising electrical and functional testing, EMC verification and mechanical and thermal vacuum cycling; furthermore following the requirements for planetary protection, contamination control activities and assay sampling were conducted before model delivery for final integration on spacecraft. During the six months cruise to Mars following the successful launch of ExoMars on 14th March 2016, periodic check outs were conducted to verify instrument health check and update mission timelines for operation. Elaboration of housekeeping data showed that the behaviour of the whole instrument was nominal during the whole cruise. Unfortunately DREAMS was not able to operate on the surface of Mars, due to the known guidance anomaly during the descent that caused Schiaparelli to crash at landing. The adverse sequence of events at 4 km altitude anyway triggered the transition of the lander in surface operative mode, commanding switch on the DREAMS instrument, which was therefore able to correctly power on and send back housekeeping data. This proved the nominal performance of all DREAMS hardware before touchdown demonstrating the highest TRL of the unit for future missions. The spare models of DREAMS are currently in use at university premises for the development of autonomous units to be used in cubesat mission and in probes for stratospheric balloons launches in collaboration with Italian Space Agency.

Modeling Storm-Induced Inundation on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta for Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravens, T. M.; Allen, J.

2012-12-01

The Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta is a large delta on the west coast of Alaska and one of the few remaining deltas that is largely free of anthropogenic impacts. The delta hosts a wide-range of nesting birds including the endangered Spectacled Eider. The delta plain, with an elevation of about 2 m (m.s.l.) - and an average tidal range of 2.7 m - is subject to frequent inundation by storm surges originating from the adjacent Bering Sea. Here, we report on our efforts to validate a storm-surge modeling system consisting of a course-grid ADCIRC model covering the Bering and Chukchi Seas and a Delft3D fine-grid model of the southern YK Delta. The storm surge models are validated based on measured water levels from 2007-2010 and using satellite observations of inundation due to large storms in 2005 and 2006. About 10 storms over the past 30 years are modeled. Based on model output, we computed a spatially distributed inundation index which is a time-integral of water level throughout the fine-grid model domain from individual storms and from the 30 year period. In order to examine the change in inundation in future climates, the models of the 30 year period were re-run assuming a 1 and 2 meter sea level rise. The impact of climate change on inundation frequency and intensity - using the inundation index - is reported. Future work will relate the present and projected inundation index to ecological parameters such as bird-nest concentration and vegetation type.

The threshold between storm overwash and inundation and the implication to paleo-storm records and climate signatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G.; Long, J.; Osterman, L. E.; Plant, N. G.; Marot, M. E.; Bernier, J.; Flocks, J. G.; Adams, C. S.

2014-12-01

In modern coastal systems, the sensitivity of a coastal site to erosion or deposition during storm conditions depends largely on the geomorphic configuration (e.g. dune or beach height and width) and the storm-induced oceanographic processes (surge and waves). Depending on the magnitude of these variables, coastal systems may be eroded, overwashed, breached, and/or inundated during the storm. To date, there has been no attempt to evaluate how these observable modern differences in storm-impact regimes might be utilized to interpret paleo-storm intensities and frequencies. Time-series of sediment texture, radioisotopic, and foraminiferal data from back-barrier environments along the Chandeleur Islands (Louisiana, USA) document the emplacement of a storm event deposit from Hurricane Isaac and we use this event to test paleo-storm intensity reconstruction methods. Water level reconstructed for the event layer using an advection (grain-size) settling model are 2 - 3 times greater than measured during the storm. The over-estimation is linked to the reconstruction model's assumptions concerning sediment transport during storms (i.e., overwash only), while actual processes included inundation as well. These contrasts may result in misidentification (i.e., presence/absence) and/or misclassification (i.e., intensity) of storms in the geologic record (e.g., low geomorphic conditions and high water levels) that would in turn affect the ability to link storm frequency or intensity to climatic drivers.

Storm surge modeling and applications in coastal areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dube, Shisir K.; Murty, Tad S.; Feyen, Jesse C.; Cabrera, Reggina; Harper, Bruce A.; Bales, Jerad D.; Amer, Saud A.

2010-01-01

This chapter introduces the reader to a wide spectrum of storm surge modeling systems used to assess the impact of tropical cyclones, covering a range of numerical methods, model domains, forcing and boundary conditions, and purposes. New technologies to obtain data such as deployment of temporary sensors and remote sensing practices to support modeling are also presented. Extensive storm surge modeling applications have been made with existing modeling systems and some of them are described in this chapter.The authors recognize the importance of evaluating river-ocean interactions in coastal environments during tropical cyclones. Therefore, the coupling of hydraulic (riverine) and storm surge models is discussed. In addition, results from studies performed in the coast of India are shown which generated maps to help emergency managers and reduce risk due to coastal inundation.

Urban nonpoint source pollution buildup and washoff models for simulating storm runoff quality in the Los Angeles County.

PubMed

Wang, Long; Wei, Jiahua; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian; Maqsood, Imran

2011-07-01

Many urban nonpoint source pollution models utilize pollutant buildup and washoff functions to simulate storm runoff quality of urban catchments. In this paper, two urban pollutant washoff load models are derived using pollutant buildup and washoff functions. The first model assumes that there is no residual pollutant after a storm event while the second one assumes that there is always residual pollutant after each storm event. The developed models are calibrated and verified with observed data from an urban catchment in the Los Angeles County. The application results show that the developed model with consideration of residual pollutant is more capable of simulating nonpoint source pollution from urban storm runoff than that without consideration of residual pollutant. For the study area, residual pollutant should be considered in pollutant buildup and washoff functions for simulating urban nonpoint source pollution when the total runoff volume is less than 30 mm. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

EPA Science Inventory

Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a ...

Comparison of Ionospheric TEC Derived from GPS and IRI 2012 Model during Geomagnetic Storms at Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlia, Dessi; Wu, Falin

2016-07-01

This paper investigates the variations of vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) at Manado, Indonesia (geographic coordinates : lat 1.34 ° S and long 124.82 ° E) for period 2013. The GPS measured TEC is compared with the TEC derived from the IRI (International Reference Ionosphere) 2012 model. Vertical TEC measurements obtained from dual frequency GPS receiver that is GISTM (GPS Ionospheric Scintillations and TEC monitor). Variation of TEC validate to IRI 2012 model at Manado station has been compared with the model for three different topside of electron density namely NeQuick, IRI-01-Corr and IRI2001.There is a need to investigation on diurnal, seasonal variations, solar activity dependence of TEC and including effects of space weather related events to TEC and modeling of TEC. In this paper, diurnal and seasonal variations of VTEC and the effect of VTEC due to space weather events like Geomagnetic storms are analyzed. The result show that the TEC prediction using IRI-2001 model overestimated the GPS TEC measurements, while IRI-NeQuick and IRI-01-corr show a tendency to underestimates the observed TEC during the day time particularly in low latitude region in the maximum solar activity period (2013). The variations of VTEC during 17th March, 2013, 29th June, 2013 storms are analyzed. During 17th March,2013 storm enhancement in VTEC with Kp value 6 and Disturbance storm index (DST) -132 nT. During 29th June, 2013 storm VTEC depletion with value 7 and DST -98 nT. Significant deviations in VTEC during the main phase of the storms are observed. It is found that the response of ionospheric TEC consist of effects of both enhancement and depletions in ionospheric structures (positive and negative storm). Keywords: TEC ionosphere, GPS, GISTM, IRI 2012 model, solar activity, geomagnetic storm

Organic double layer element driven by triboelectric nanogenerator: Study of carrier behavior by non-contact optical method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiangyu; Taguchi, Dai; Manaka, Takaaki; Iwamoto, Mitsumasa

2016-02-01

By using optical electric-field-induced second-harmonic generation (EFISHG) technique, we studied carrier behavior caused by contact electrification (CE) in an organic double-layer element. This double-layer sample was half suspended in the open air, where one electrode (anode or cathode) was connected with a Cu foil for electrification while the other electrode was floated. Results showed two distinct carrier behaviors, depending on the (anode or cathode) connections to the Cu foil, and these carrier behaviors were analyzed based on the Maxwell-Wagner model. The double-layer sample works as a simple solar cell device. The photovoltaic effect and CE process have been proved to be two paralleled effects without strong interaction with each other, while photoconductivity changing in the sample can enhance the relaxation of CE induced charges. By probing the carrier behavior in this half-suspended device, the EFISHG technique has been demonstrated to be an effective non-contact method for clarifying the CE effect on related energy harvesting devices and electronics devices. Meanwhile, the related physical analysis in this letter is also useful for elucidating the fundamental characteristic of hybrid energy system based on solar cell and triboelectric nanogenerator.

Interactions Between Convective Storms and Their Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maddox, R. A.; Hoxit, L. R.; Chappell, C. F.

1979-01-01

The ways in which intense convective storms interact with their environment are considered for a number of specific severe storm situations. A physical model of subcloud wind fields and vertical wind profiles was developed to explain the often observed intensification of convective storms that move along or across thermal boundaries. A number of special, unusually dense, data sets were used to substantiate features of the model. GOES imagery was used in conjunction with objectively analyzed surface wind data to develop a nowcast technique that might be used to identify specific storm cells likely to become tornadic. It was shown that circulations associated with organized meso-alpha and meso-beta scale storm complexes may, on occasion, strongly modify tropospheric thermodynamic patterns and flow fields.

Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; McCall, Robert T.; van Rooijen, Arnold; Norris, Benjamin

2015-01-01

This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

2018-06-01

This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

Changing Characteristics of convective storms: Results from a continental-scale convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Bullock, R.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Convective storms are causing extremes such as flooding, landslides, and wind gusts and are related to the development of tornadoes and hail. Convective storms are also the dominant source of summer precipitation in most regions of the Contiguous United States. So far little is known about how convective storms might change due to global warming. This is mainly because of the coarse grid spacing of state-of-the-art climate models that are not able to resolve deep convection explicitly. Instead, coarse resolution models rely on convective parameterization schemes that are a major source of errors and uncertainties in climate change projections. Convection-permitting climate simulations, with grid-spacings smaller than 4 km, show significant improvements in the simulation of convective storms by representing deep convection explicitly. Here we use a pair of 13-year long current and future convection-permitting climate simulations that cover large parts of North America. We use the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension (MODE-TD) to analyze the model performance in reproducing storm features in the current climate and to investigate their potential future changes. We show that the model is able to accurately reproduce the main characteristics of convective storms in the present climate. The comparison with the future climate simulation shows that convective storms significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and size. Furthermore, they are projected to move slower which could result in a substantial increase in convective storm-related hazards such as flash floods, debris flows, and landslides. Some regions, such as the North Atlantic, might experience a regime shift that leads to significantly stronger storms that are unrepresented in the current climate.

Impact of Hurricanes and Nor'easters on a Migrating Inlet System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Elgar, S.; Raubenheimer, B.

2016-12-01

After breaching in 2007, Katama Inlet, connecting Katama Bay to the Atlantic Ocean on the south shore of Martha's Vineyard, MA, migrated 2 km until it closed in 2015. Bathymetric surveys before and after Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Sandy (2012) indicate the strong waves and currents associated with these storms caused 2 m of erosion and deposition around the inlet mouth. The waves, currents, and bathymetric change observed during the hurricanes were used to validate the hydrodynamic and morphodynamic components of a Delft3D numerical model of the Martha's Vineyard coastline for storm (> 3 m wave heights) conditions. When driven with observed bathymetry and offshore waves, as well as simulated (WaveWatch3) winds and barometric pressures, the model reproduces the pattern and range of bathymetric change observed around the inlet. Model simulations of realistic (i.e., Irene and Sandy) and idealized storm conditions with a range of durations and wave conditions are used to test the relative importance of short-duration, high-intensity storms (hurricanes) and longer-duration, lower-intensity storms (nor'easters) on inlet migration. The simulations suggest that longer-duration, lower-intensity storms cause a higher range and variance in bathymetric change around the inlet than shorter-duration, higher-intensity storms. However, the simulations also suggest that the storm-induced migration of the inlet depends more on the wave direction at the peak of the storm than on the duration of the storm peak. The effect of storms on inlet migration over yearly time scales will be discussed. Funded by NSF, NOAA, ONR, and ASD(R&E).

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

2016-01-01

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, R. Justin; Msadek, Rym; Kwon, Young-Oh; Booth, James F.; Zarzycki, Colin

2018-05-01

It has been hypothesized that the ocean mesoscale (particularly ocean fronts) can affect the strength and location of the overlying extratropical atmospheric storm track. In this paper, we examine whether resolving ocean fronts in global climate models indeed leads to significant improvement in the simulated storm track, defined using low level meridional wind. Two main sets of experiments are used: (i) global climate model Community Earth System Model version 1 with non-eddy-resolving standard resolution or with ocean eddy-resolving resolution, and (ii) the same but with the GFDL Climate Model version 2. In case (i), it is found that higher ocean resolution leads to a reduction of a very warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the east coasts of the U.S. and Japan seen in standard resolution models. This in turn leads to a reduction of storm track strength near the coastlines, by up to 20%, and a better location of the storm track maxima, over the western boundary currents as observed. In case (ii), the change in absolute SST bias in these regions is less notable, and there are modest (10% or less) increases in surface storm track, and smaller changes in the free troposphere. In contrast, in the southern Indian Ocean, case (ii) shows most sensitivity to ocean resolution, and this coincides with a larger change in mean SST as ocean resolution is changed. Where the ocean resolution does make a difference, it consistently brings the storm track closer in appearance to that seen in ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. Overall, for the range of ocean model resolutions used here (1° versus 0.1°) we find that the differences in SST gradient have a small effect on the storm track strength whilst changes in absolute SST between experiments can have a larger effect. The latter affects the land-sea contrast, air-sea stability, surface latent heat flux, and the boundary layer baroclinicity in such a way as to reduce storm track activity adjacent to the western boundary in the N. Hemisphere storm tracks, but strengthens the storm track over the southern Indian Ocean. A note of caution is that the results are sensitive to the choice of storm track metric. The results are contrasted with those from a high resolution coupled simulation where the SST is smoothed for the purposes of computing air-sea fluxes, an alternative method of testing sensitivity to SST gradients.

Ocean modelling and Early-Warning System for the Gulf of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima Rego, Joao; Yan, Kun; Sisomphon, Piyamarn; Thanathanphon, Watin; Twigt, Daniel; Irazoqui Apecechea, Maialen

2017-04-01

Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are among the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters to coastal areas. The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) has been periodically affected by typhoon induced storm surges in the past (e.g. storm Harriet in 1962, storm Gay in 1989 and storm Linda in 1997). Due to increased touristic / economic development and increased population density in the coastal zone, the combined effect and risk of high water level and increased rainfall / river discharge has dramatically increased and are expected to increase in future due to climate change effects. This presentation describes the development and implementation of the first real-time operational storm surge, wave and wave setup forecasting system in the GoT, a joint applied research initiative by Deltares in The Netherlands and the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) in Thailand. The modelling part includes a new hydrodynamic model to simulate tides and storm surges and two wave models (regional and local). The hydrodynamic model is based on Delft3D Flexible Mesh, capable of simulating water levels and detailed flows. The regional and the recently-developed local wave model are based on the SWAN model, a third-generation wave model. The operational platform is based on Delft-FEWS software, which coordinates all the data inputs, the modelling tasks and the automatic forecast exports including overland inundation in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The main objective of the Gulf of Thailand EWS is to provide daily accurate storm surge, wave and wave setup estimates automatically with various data exports possibilities to support this task. It adds a coastal component to HAII's existing practice of providing daily reports on fluvial flood forecasts, used for decision-support in issuing flood warnings for inland water systems in Thailand. Every day, three-day coastal forecasts are now produced based on the latest regional meteorological predictions. Examples are given to illustrate the system's development and main features, with a focus on decision-support products.

Can Regional Climate Modeling Capture the Observed Changes in Spatial Organization of Extreme Storms at Higher Temperatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, J.; Wasko, C.; Johnson, F.; Evans, J. P.; Sharma, A.

2018-05-01

The spatial extent and organization of extreme storm events has important practical implications for flood forecasting. Recently, conflicting evidence has been found on the observed changes of storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures. To further investigate this question, a regional climate model assessment is presented for the Greater Sydney region, in Australia. Two regional climate models were considered: the first a convection-resolving simulation at 2-km resolution, the second a resolution of 10 km with three different convection parameterizations. Both the 2- and the 10-km resolutions that used the Betts-Miller-Janjic convective scheme simulate decreasing storm spatial extent with increasing temperatures for 1-hr duration precipitation events, consistent with the observation-based study in Australia. However, other observed relationships of extreme rainfall with increasing temperature were not well represented by the models. Improved methods for considering storm organization are required to better understand potential future changes.

Rhythm Pattern of Sole through Electrification of the Human Body When Walking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takiguchi, Kiyoaki; Wada, Takayuki; Tohyama, Shigeki

The rhythm of automatic cyclic movements such as walking is known to be generated by a rhythm generator called CPG in the spinal cord. The measurement of rhythm characteristics in walking is considered to be important for analyzing human bipedal walking and adaptive walking on irregular terrain. In particular, the soles that contact the terrain surface perform flexible movements similar to the movement of the fins of a lungfish, which is considered to be the predecessor of land animals. The sole movements are believed to be a basic movement acquired during prehistoric times. The detailed rhythm pattern of sole motion is considered to be important. We developed a method for measuring electrification without installing device on a subject's body and footwear for stabilizing the electrification of the human body. We measured the rhythm pattern of 20 subjects including 4 infants when walking by using this system and the corresponding equipment. Therefore, we confirmed the commonality of the correlative rhythm patterns of 20 subjects. Further, with regard to an individual subject, the reproducibility of a rhythm pattern with strong correlation coefficient > 0.93 ± 0.5 (mean ± SD) concerning rhythms of trials that are differently conducted on adult subjects could be confirmed.

OTEC Potential of East Nusa Tenggara Province in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Widyartono, M.; Rahmadian, R.

2018-04-01

Indonesia is the largest archipelago country in the world, located between Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. Indonesia has more than 17000 islands with 70 per cent of the region is ocean. The Growth of the economic and population in Indonesia increasing the demand of the electricity annually, in 2015 alone electricity consumption in Indonesia reaching 200 TWh and will continue increasing every year. However, East Nusa Tenggara Province electrification ratio only around 58.64%, this is the second lowest ratio in Indonesia. This electrification ratio describes the level of availability of electrical energy for the community. Power Plant with renewable source placement in East Nusa Tenggara Province or smaller district need to be prioritise to cope with the low electrification ratio. Renewable sources for power plant have a good potential to work with, in example wind power, solar power, geothermal, or biomass. In addition, another renewable source that not yet known is from the ocean itself. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) is one of the renewable source method from ocean. This paper will uncover the potential of OTEC in East Nusa Tenggara province so it will bring possibility to build an OTEC power plant in the future.

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Study of pre-storm environment by using rawinsonde and satellite observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hung, R. J.; Tsao, Y. D.

1987-01-01

Rawinsonde and satellite remote sensing data were utilized to examine the prestorm environment and mechanisms for the initiation of four groups of severe storms. The storms in Altus, Oklahoma, Pampas, Texas, Bennett, Colorado, and Red River Valley, Oklahoma are described. The geographical distributions of the areas of high moisture concentration and variations of tropopause heights for the storm groups are analyzed. It is detected that in the area of a low-level high concentration of moisture, the local tropopause height is lowest at the time of the storm cloud formation and development, and the potential energy storage per unit areas for the overshootiong clouds penetrating above the tropopause is related to the intensity of the storms produced. Numerical cloud modeling was performed for the storms. The model data are compared with the satellite and rawinsonde observations, and it is noted that the data correlate well.

A numerical investigation of the President's Day storm of February 18-19, 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nappi, A. J.; Warner, T. T.

1983-01-01

The reported investigation is based on the use of a three-dimensional, primitive equation model. The President's Day storm, formed in the Gulf of Mexico as a massive anticyclone, affected the northern states with record-breaking cold temperatures. Attention is given to the physical processes relevant to storm formation, the forecast model, a description of experiments and model forecasts, and model results. An attempt is made to determine the important dynamic processes at work during the evolution of the storm. The jet streak interactions which occurred in the cyclogenetic environment, the effects of cold air damming, and the formation of a strong mesoscale coastal front are found to be of particular interest.

Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

PubMed

Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

2012-12-30

Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition

PubMed Central

Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted. PMID:26213515

Two-step forecast of geomagnetic storm using coronal mass ejection and solar wind condition.

PubMed

Kim, R-S; Moon, Y-J; Gopalswamy, N; Park, Y-D; Kim, Y-H

2014-04-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study ( B z  ≤ -5 nT or E y  ≥ 3 mV/m for t ≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL model). Using 55 CME- Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90%) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87%). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88%), while the former correctly forecasts only 71% of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80%) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81%) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

A storm-based CSLE incorporating the modified SCS-CN method for soil loss prediction on the Chinese Loess Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Wenhai; Huang, Mingbin

2017-04-01

The Chinese Loess Plateau is one of the most erodible areas in the world. In order to reduce soil and water losses, suitable conservation practices need to be designed. For this purpose, there is an increasing demand for an appropriate model that can accurately predict storm-based surface runoff and soil losses on the Loess Plateau. The Chinese Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) has been widely used in this region to assess soil losses from different land use types. However, the CSLE was intended only to predict the mean annual gross soil loss. In this study, a CSLE was proposed that would be storm-based and that introduced a new rainfall-runoff erosivity factor. A dataset was compiled that comprised measurements of soil losses during individual storms from three runoff-erosion plots in each of three different watersheds in the gully region of the Plateau for 3-7 years in three different time periods (1956-1959; 1973-1980; 2010-13). The accuracy of the soil loss predictions made by the new storm-based CSLE was determined using the data for the six plots in two of the watersheds measured during 165 storm-runoff events. The performance of the storm-based CSLE was further compared with the performance of the storm-based Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) for the same six plots. During the calibration (83 storms) and validation (82 storms) of the storm-based CSLE, the model efficiency, E, was 87.7% and 88.9%, respectively, while the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.7 and 2.3 t ha-1 indicating a high degree of accuracy. Furthermore, the storm-based CSLE performed better than the storm-based RULSE (E: 75.8% and 70.3%; RMSE: 3.8 and 3.7 t ha-1, for the calibration and validation storms, respectively). The storm-based CSLE was then used to predict the soil losses from the three experimental plots in the third watershed. For these predictions, the model parameter values, previously determined by the calibration based on the data from the initial six plots, were used in the storm-based CSLE. In addition, the surface runoff used by the storm-based CSLE was either obtained from measurements or from the values predicted by the modified Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method. When using the measured runoff, the storm-based CSLE had an E of 76.6%, whereas the use of the predicted runoff gave an E of 76.4%. The high E values indicated that the storm-based CSLE incorporating the modified SCS-CN method could accurately predict storm-event-based soil losses resulting from both sheet and rill erosion at the field scale on the Chinese Loess Plateau. This approach could be applicable to other areas of the world once the model parameters have been suitably calibrated.

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model which had been used for Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (Hall 2011) as well as North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis (Hall and Jewson 2007). The introduction of these tracks complements the shortage of the historical samples and allows for more reliable PDFs required for implementation of JPM-OS. Using the 33,731 tracks and JPM-OS, an optimal storm ensemble is determined. This approach results in different storms/winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, and produces different Base Flood Elevation maps for coastal regions. Coastal inundation maps produced by the two different methods will be discussed in detail in the poster paper.

Investigating compound flooding in an estuary using hydrodynamic modelling: a case study from the Shoalhaven River, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumbier, Kristian; Carvalho, Rafael C.; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Woodroffe, Colin D.

2018-02-01

Many previous modelling studies have considered storm-tide and riverine flooding independently, even though joint-probability analysis highlighted significant dependence between extreme rainfall and extreme storm surges in estuarine environments. This study investigates compound flooding by quantifying horizontal and vertical differences in coastal flood risk estimates resulting from a separation of storm-tide and riverine flooding processes. We used an open-source version of the Delft3D model to simulate flood extent and inundation depth due to a storm event that occurred in June 2016 in the Shoalhaven Estuary, south-eastern Australia. Time series of observed water levels and discharge measurements are used to force model boundaries, whereas observational data such as satellite imagery, aerial photographs, tidal gauges and water level logger measurements are used to validate modelling results. The comparison of simulation results including and excluding riverine discharge demonstrated large differences in modelled flood extents and inundation depths. A flood risk assessment accounting only for storm-tide flooding would have underestimated the flood extent of the June 2016 storm event by 30 % (20.5 km2). Furthermore, inundation depths would have been underestimated on average by 0.34 m and by up to 1.5 m locally. We recommend considering storm-tide and riverine flooding processes jointly in estuaries with large catchment areas, which are known to have a quick response time to extreme rainfall. In addition, comparison of different boundary set-ups at the intermittent entrance in Shoalhaven Heads indicated that a permanent opening, in order to reduce exposure to riverine flooding, would increase tidal range and exposure to both storm-tide flooding and wave action.

XBeach and CSHORE Numerical Model Assessment of the Beach and Foredune Morphodynamic Response of a Barrier Island during Hurricane Storm Surge Inundation - Folletts Island Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figlus, J.

2016-02-01

More than 400 barrier islands line the United States coasts providing a first line of defense against surge and wave attack during extreme storm events. While some pre- and post-storm topography and bathymetry data of barrier islands inundated during a storm exist, very little information is available to help understand the complex hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes during storm impact. These processes are crucial to understanding sediment budgets, potential threats to infrastructure and best coastal management practices for specific locations. Follett's Island (FI) is a low-lying sediment-starved barrier island located on the Upper Texas Coast, a stretch of coastline along the Gulf of Mexico experiencing on average four hurricanes and four tropical cyclones per decade. During Hurricane Ike, water levels and wave heights at FI exceeded the 100-year and 40-year return values, respectively. This caused the island to undergo a sequence of four distinct interaction regimes, including impact, overtopping, inundation, and storm surge ebb. Each regime caused unique morphology changes to the island. The physical processes governing the real-time morphodynamic response of the beach and dune system during 96 hours of hurricane impact were modeled using XBeach (2D) and CSHORE (1D). Hydrodynamic boundary conditions were obtained from ADCIRC/SWAN model runs validated with measured buoy and wave gauge data while LiDAR surveys provided pre- and post-storm measured topography. XBeach displayed a decent model skill and was very useful in qualitatively visualizing erosion and deposition patterns during each regime. CSHORE also displayed a decent model skill and was able to accurately predict the post-storm beach slope and shoreline, but was less effective at simulating the foredune morphology. Modeling results show that the complete morphodynamic response of FI to Hurricane Ike was far more complex than suggested by only before and after storm topography surveys.

Preliminary Study on Coupling Wave-Tide-Storm Surges Prediction System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, S.; Park, S.; Seo, J.; Kim, K.

2008-12-01

The Korean Peninsula is surrounded by the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and East Sea. This complex oceanographic system includes large tides in the Yellow Sea and seasonally varying monsoon and typhoon events. For Korea's coastal regions, floods caused by wave and storm surges are among the most serious threats. To predict more accurate wave and storm surge, the development of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system is essential. For the time being, wave and storm surges predictions are still made separately in KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and most operational institute. However, many researchers have emphasized the effects of tides and storm surges on wind waves and recommended further investigations into the effects of wave-tide-storm surges interactions and coupling module on wave heights. However, tidal height and current give a great effect on the wave prediction in the Yellow sea where is very high tide and related research is not enough. At present, KMA has operated the wave (RWAM : Regional Wave Model) and storm surges/tide prediction system (RTSM : Regional Tide/Storm Surges Model) for ocean forecasting. The RWAM is WAVEWATCH III which is a third generation wave model developed by Tolman (1989). The RTSM is based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model, Blumberg and Mellor, 1987). The RWAM and RTSM cover the northwestern Pacific Ocean from 115°E to 150°E and from 20°N to 52°N. The horizontal grid intervals are 1/12° in both latitudinal and longitudinal directions. The development, testing and application of a coupling module in which wave-tide-storm surges are incorporated within the frame of KMA Ocean prediction system, has been considered as a step forward in respect of ocean forecasting. In addition, advanced wave prediction model will be applicable to the effect of ocean in the weather forecasting system. The main purpose of this study is to show how the coupling module developed and to report on a series of experiments dealing with the sensitivities and real case prediction of coupling wave-tide-storm surges prediction system.

Nearshore Circulation and Storm Surge Along the Mackenzie Delta Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perrie, W.; Mulligan, R. P.; Solomon, S. M.; Hoque, A.; Zhang, L.

2008-12-01

The Mackenzie Delta is a 150 km long section of coastline characterized by muddy sediments where the Mackenzie River outflow, dispersed over 20 distributary channels, discharges into the southern Beaufort Sea. The marine environment in this region is an important and integral part of the lives of Canadian Northerners. The area is also undergoing hydrocarbon exploration with potential development within the next decade. Changes to Arctic climate, such as increasing ice-free western Arctic Ocean and intensifying storm activity, may endanger the coastal settlements and marine environment in the Mackenzie Delta region. The low gradient of the delta and the adjacent inner shelf makes it very susceptible to flooding during storms. Field observations in the nearshore zone collected in August of 2007 and 2008 indicate strong gradients in temperature and salinity in shallow water of 2-6 m. The fluctuations are associated with the movements of warm and fresh river plumes and wind-driven upwelling of cold and saline water below the thermocline. The observations are in agreement with 3D model simulations of the nearshore delta region using Delft3D, which includes wind, tidal, storm surge, buoyancy and river forcing. The results validate the model and indicate that it can be used to hindcast the nearshore oceanographic conditions during severe Arctic storms. As a case study we present preliminary model results for an Arctic storm from late 1999 that caused extensive vegetation die-off in the outer delta. This cyclone was a mesoscale Arctic storm that developed over the NE Pacific and western Bering Sea, intensified explosively in the Gulf of Alaska and developed into a meteorological bomb. The storm made landfall at Cape Newenham, Alaska, crossed the Rocky Mountains to the Yukon and Northwest Territories and re-intensified over a zone of high sea surface temperature gradients in the southern Beaufort Sea. Using the Canadian Mesoscale Compressible Community (MC2) atmospheric model, simulations of the storm pattern, track and intensity are in very good agreement with the NCEP re-analysis. This is model coupled to the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and Hibler Ice Model, which are used to provide basin-scale driver fields and define the boundary conditions of the nearshore Delft3D model for the Mackenzie Delta region. Coastal damage was predominately caused by storm surge, and the high salinity flood waters that flowed over the surface of the outer delta.

A framework for modeling scenario-based barrier island storm impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley; Long, Joseph W.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.

2018-01-01

Methods for investigating the vulnerability of existing or proposed coastal features to storm impacts often rely on simplified parametric models or one-dimensional process-based modeling studies that focus on changes to a profile across a dune or barrier island. These simple studies tend to neglect the impacts to curvilinear or alongshore varying island planforms, influence of non-uniform nearshore hydrodynamics and sediment transport, irregular morphology of the offshore bathymetry, and impacts from low magnitude wave events (e.g. cold fronts). Presented here is a framework for simulating regionally specific, low and high magnitude scenario-based storm impacts to assess the alongshore variable vulnerabilities of a coastal feature. Storm scenarios based on historic hydrodynamic conditions were derived and simulated using the process-based morphologic evolution model XBeach. Model results show that the scenarios predicted similar patterns of erosion and overwash when compared to observed qualitative morphologic changes from recent storm events that were not included in the dataset used to build the scenarios. The framework model simulations were capable of predicting specific areas of vulnerability in the existing feature and the results illustrate how this storm vulnerability simulation framework could be used as a tool to help inform the decision-making process for scientists, engineers, and stakeholders involved in coastal zone management or restoration projects.

78 FR 73456 - List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks: HI-STORM 100 Cask System; Amendment No. 9

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-12-06

...-2012-0052] RIN 3150-AJ12 List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks: HI-STORM 100 Cask System; Amendment... International HI-STORM 100 Cask System listing within the ``List of Approved Spent Fuel Storage Casks'' to... requirements for the HI-STORM 100U part of the HI-STORM 100 Cask System and updates the thermal model and...

The probability of occurrence of high-loss windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massey, Neil

2016-04-01

Windstorms are one of the largest meteorological risks to life and property in Europe. High - loss windstorms, in terms of insured losses, are a result of not only the windspeed of the storm but also the position and track of the storm. The two highest loss storms on record, Daria (1990) and Lothar (1999) caused so much damage because they tracked across highly populated areas of Europe. Although the frequency and intensity of high - loss wind storms in the observed record is known, there are not enough samples, due to the short observed record, to truly know the distribution of the frequency and intensity of windstorms over Europe and, by extension, the distribution of losses which could occur if the atmosphere had been in a different state due to the internal variability of the atmosphere. Risk and loss modelling exercises carried out by and for the reinsurance industry have typically stochastically perturbed the historical record of high - loss windstorms to produce distributions of potential windstorms with greater sample sizes than the observations. This poster presents a new method of generating many samples of potential windstorms and analyses the frequency of occurrence, intensity and potential losses of these windstorms. The large ensemble regional climate modelling project weather@home is used to generate many regional climate model representations (800 per year) of the weather over Europe between 1985 and 2010. The regional climate model is driven at the boundaries by a free running global climate model and so each ensemble member represents a potential state of the atmosphere, rather than an observed state. The winter storm season of October to March is analysed by applying an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm to each ensemble member. From the resulting tracks, the windspeed within a 1000km radius of the cyclone centre is extracted and the maximum windspeed over a 72 hour period is derived as the storm windspeed footprint. This footprint is fed into a population based loss model to estimate the losses for the storm. Additionally the same analysis is performed on data from the same regional climate model, driven at the boundaries by ERA - Interim. This allows the tracks and losses of the storms in the observed record to be recovered using the same tracking method and loss model. A storm track matching function is applied to the storm tracks in the large ensemble and so analogues of the observed storms can be recovered. The frequency of occurrence of the high - loss storms in the large ensemble can then be determined, and used as a proxy for the frequency of occurrence in the observations.

The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

2016-02-01

An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

Characterization of within-day beginning times of storms for stochastic simulation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The beginning times of storms within a day are often required for stochastic modeling purposes and for studies on plant growth. This study investigated the variation in frequency distributions of storm-initiation time (SI time) within a day due to elevation changes and month. Actual storms without 2...

Evaluation of Deep Learning Representations of Spatial Storm Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagne, D. J., II; Haupt, S. E.; Nychka, D. W.

2017-12-01

The spatial structure of a severe thunderstorm and its surrounding environment provide useful information about the potential for severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, hail, and high winds. Statistics computed over the area of a storm or from the pre-storm environment can provide descriptive information but fail to capture structural information. Because the storm environment is a complex, high-dimensional space, identifying methods to encode important spatial storm information in a low-dimensional form should aid analysis and prediction of storms by statistical and machine learning models. Principal component analysis (PCA), a more traditional approach, transforms high-dimensional data into a set of linearly uncorrelated, orthogonal components ordered by the amount of variance explained by each component. The burgeoning field of deep learning offers two potential approaches to this problem. Convolutional Neural Networks are a supervised learning method for transforming spatial data into a hierarchical set of feature maps that correspond with relevant combinations of spatial structures in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are an unsupervised deep learning model that uses two neural networks trained against each other to produce encoded representations of spatial data. These different spatial encoding methods were evaluated on the prediction of severe hail for a large set of storm patches extracted from the NCAR convection-allowing ensemble. Each storm patch contains information about storm structure and the near-storm environment. Logistic regression and random forest models were trained using the PCA and GAN encodings of the storm data and were compared against the predictions from a convolutional neural network. All methods showed skill over climatology at predicting the probability of severe hail. However, the verification scores among the methods were very similar and the predictions were highly correlated. Further evaluations are being performed to determine how the choice of input variables affects the results.

Effect of Asian dust storms on daily mortality in seven metropolitan cities of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Hyewon; Kim, Ho; Honda, Yasushi; Lim, Youn-Hee; Yi, Seungmuk

2013-11-01

The adverse effects of dust storms on health have been a major issue in several countries. A substantial number of studies have found significant associations between dust storms and morbidity such as emergency visits and hospitalizations. However, the results of the studies on the association between dust storms and mortality are inconsistent. In Korea, no study has found statistically significant effect of Asian dust storms on daily mortality. Thus, this study aims to explore the effect of Asian dust storms on daily mortality in Korea during 2001-2009. All analyses were confined to non-accidental mortality. We used generalized additive model with Quasi-Poisson regressions. We considered the lag effect of dust storms up to 7 days and performed subgroup analyses by disease, sex and age. Current day's temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, day of the week, season and time trends were controlled for in a basic model. SO2, NO2 and PM10 levels were also added in the further analyses. Meta-analysis was applied for seven metropolitan cities in Korea to estimate the pooled effects of Asian dust storms. We reported results as excessive mortality by percentage due to Asian dust storms. We found significant positive associations between Asian dust storms and mortality at lag 0 (cardiovascular: 2.91%; 95% CI: 0.13, 5.77, male: 2.74%; 95% CI: 0.74, 4.77 and <65 years: 2.52%; 95% CI: 0.06, 5.04), at lag 2 (male 2.4%; 95% CI: 0.43, 4.4 and <65 years: 2.49%; 95% CI: 0.07, 4.97), at lag 3 (total non-accidental: 1.57%; 95% CI: 0.11, 3.06, male: 2.24%; 95% CI: 0.28, 4.25 and <65 years: 2.43%; 95% CI: 0.01, 4.91) and at lag 5 (cardiovascular: 3.7%; 95% CI: 0.93, 6.54 and male: 2.04%, 95 CI: 0.08, 4.04) in the model which adjusted for NO2 additionally. Other models showed similar significant results except the PM10-adjusted model. This is the first study to show the significant relationship between Asian dust storms and mortality in Korea and to present a pooled effect estimate by meta-analysis of multiple cities in a country. Asian dust storms could significantly affect daily mortality in Korea.

Investigating and Modeling Ecosystem Response to an Experimental and a Natural Ice Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhraei, H.; Driscoll, C. T.; Rustad, L.; Campbell, J. L.; Groffman, P.; Fahey, T.; Likens, G.; Swaminathan, R.

2017-12-01

Our understanding of ecosystem response to the extreme events is generally limited to rare observations from the natural historical events. However, investigating extreme events under controlled conditions can improve our understanding of these natural phenomena. A novel field experiment was conducted in a northern hardwood forest at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire in the northeastern United States to quantify the influence of ice storms on the ecological processes. During subfreezing conditions in the winters of 2016 and 2017, water from a nearby stream was pumped and sprayed on the canopy of eight experimental plots to accrete ice to a targeted thickness on the canopy. The experiment was conducted at three levels of icing thickness (0.25, 0.5, 0.75 in.) in 2016 comparable to the naturally occurring 1998 ice storm and a second 0.5 in. treatment 2017 which were compared with reference plots. The most notable response of the icing treatments was a marked increase in fine and course litter fall which increased exponentially with increases in the icing thickness. Post-treatment openings in the canopy caused short-term increases in soil temperature in the ice-treatment plots compared to the reference plots. No response from the ice storm treatments were detected for soil moisture, net N mineralization, net nitrification, or denitrification after both natural and experimental ice storm. In contrast to the marked increase in the stream water nitrate after the natural occurring 1998 ice storm, we have not observed any significant change in soil solution N concentrations in the experimental ice storm treatments. Inconsistency in the response between the natural and experimental ice storm is likely due to differences in geophysical characteristics of the study sites including slope and lateral uptake of nutrient by the trees outside the experimental plots. In order to evaluate the long-term impacts of ice storms on northern hardwood forests, we used the biogeochemical model, PnET-BGC. The model was calibrated to the study watersheds using observations from the natural and experimental ice storms. Future projections for ice storm events were estimated from an advanced climate model and applied to the calibrated PnET-BGC model to simulate future impacts of ice storms on the northern hardwood forests.

Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

2012-12-01

In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

Analysis of the 20th November 2003 Extreme Geomagnetic Storm using CTIPe Model and GNSS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gomez, I.; Borries, C.; Codrescu, M.

2016-12-01

The ionospheric instabilities produced by solar activity generate disturbances in ionospheric density (ionospheric storms) with important terrestrial consequences such as disrupting communications and positioning. During the 20th November 2003 extreme geomagnetic storm, significant perturbations were produced in the ionosphere - thermosphere system. In this work, we replicate how this system responded to the onset of this particular storm, using the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics physics based model. CTIPe simulates the changes in the neutral winds, temperature, composition and electron densities. Although modelling the ionosphere under this conditions is a challenging task due to energy flow uncertainties, the model reproduces some of the storm features necessary to interpret the physical mechanisms behind the Total Electron Content (TEC) increase and the dramatic changes in composition during this event.Corresponding effects are observed in the TEC simulations from other physics based models and from observations derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and ground-based measurements.The study illustrates the necessity of using both, measurements and models, to have a complete understanding of the processes that are most likely responsible for the observed effects.

Ionosphere-thermosphere energy budgets for the ICME storms of March 2013 and 2015 estimated with GITM and observational proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Meng, X.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Lu, G.

2017-09-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) energy partitioning for the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) storms of 16-19 March 2013 and 2015 is estimated with the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM), empirical models and proxies derived from in situ measurements. We focus on auroral heating, Joule heating, and thermospheric cooling. Solar wind data, F10.7, OVATION Prime model and the Weimer 2005 model are used to drive GITM from above. Thermospheric nitric oxide and carbon dioxide cooling emission powers and fluxes are estimated from TIMED/SABER measurements. Assimilative mapping of ionospheric electrodynamics (AMIE) estimations of hemispheric power and Joule heating are presented, based on data from global magnetometers, the AMPERE magnetic field data, SSUSI auroral images, and the SuperDARN radar network. Modeled Joule heating and auroral heating of the IT system are mostly controlled by external driving in the March 2013 and 2015 storms, while NO cooling persists into the storm recovery phase. The total heating in the model is about 1000 GW to 3000 GW. Additionally, we intercompare contributions in selected energy channels for five coronal mass ejection-type storms modeled with GITM. Modeled auroral heating shows reasonable agreement with AMIE hemispheric power and is higher than other observational proxies. Joule heating and infrared cooling are likely underestimated in GITM. We discuss challenges and discrepancies in estimating and global modeling of the IT energy partitioning, especially Joule heating, during geomagnetic storms.

A new short-term forecasting model for the total electron content storm time disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsagouri, Ioanna; Koutroumbas, Konstantinos; Elias, Panagiotis

2018-06-01

This paper aims to introduce a new model for the short-term forecast of the vertical Total Electron Content (vTEC). The basic idea of the proposed model lies on the concept of the Solar Wind driven autoregressive model for Ionospheric short-term Forecast (SWIF). In its original version, the model is operationally implemented in the DIAS system (http://dias.space.noa.gr) and provides alerts and warnings for upcoming ionospheric disturbances, as well as single site and regional forecasts of the foF2 critical frequency over Europe up to 24 h in advance. The forecasts are driven by the real time assessment of the solar wind conditions at ACE location. The comparative analysis of the variations in foF2 and vTEC during eleven geomagnetic storm events that occurred in the present solar cycle 24 reveals similarities but also differences in the storm-time response of the two characteristics with respect to the local time and the latitude of the observation point. Since the aforementioned dependences drive the storm-time forecasts of the SWIF model, the results obtained here support the upgrade of the SWIF's modeling technique in forecasting the storm-time vTEC variation from its onset to full development and recovery. According to the proposed approach, the vTEC storm-time response can be forecasted from 1 to 12-13 h before its onset, depending on the local time of the observation point at storm onset at L1. Preliminary results on the assessment of the performance of the proposed model and further considerations on its potential implementation in operational mode are also discussed.

Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yi-Ying; Gardiner, Barry; Pasztor, Ferenc; Blennow, Kristina; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Naudts, Kim; Otto, Juliane; McGrath, Matthew J.; Planque, Carole; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2018-03-01

Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind-throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of ForestGALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km2 pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 × 106 m3 of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 × 106 m3, which is about 100 % of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 × 106 m3, which is between 10 and 50 % of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance on both regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.

Dynamic fuzzy modeling of storm water infiltration in urban fractured aquifers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hong, Y.-S.; Rosen, Michael R.; Reeves, R.R.

2002-01-01

In an urban fractured-rock aquifer in the Mt. Eden area of Auckland, New Zealand, disposal of storm water is via "soakholes" drilled directly into the top of the fractured basalt rock. The dynamic response of the groundwater level due to the storm water infiltration shows characteristics of a strongly time-varying system. A dynamic fuzzy modeling approach, which is based on multiple local models that are weighted using fuzzy membership functions, has been developed to identify and predict groundwater level fluctuations caused by storm water infiltration. The dynamic fuzzy model is initialized by the fuzzy clustering algorithm and optimized by the gradient-descent algorithm in order to effectively derive the multiple local models-each of which is associated with a locally valid model that represents the groundwater level state as a response to different intensities of rainfall events. The results have shown that even if the number of fuzzy local models derived is small, the fuzzy modeling approach developed provides good prediction results despite the highly time-varying nature of this urban fractured-rock aquifer system. Further, it allows interpretable representations of the dynamic behavior of the groundwater system due to storm water infiltration.

Designsafe-Ci a Cyberinfrastructure for Natural Hazard Simulation and Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dawson, C.; Rathje, E.; Stanzione, D.; Padgett, J.; Pinelli, J. P.

2017-12-01

DesignSafe is the web-based research platform of the Natural Hazards Engineering Research Infrastructure (NHERI) network that provides the computational tools needed to manage and analyze critical data for natural hazards research, with wind and storm surge related hazards being a primary focus. One of the simulation tools under DesignSafe is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model, a coastal ocean model used in storm surge analysis. ADCIRC is an unstructured, finite element model with high resolution capabilities for studying storm surge impacts, and has long been used in storm surge hind-casting and forecasting. In this talk, we will demonstrate the use of ADCIRC within the DesignSafe platform and its use for forecasting Hurricane Harvey. We will also demonstrate how to analyze, visualize and archive critical storm surge related data within DesignSafe.

Evaluation of the precipitation-runoff modeling system, Beaver Creek basin, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bower, D.E.

1985-01-01

The Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was evaluated with data from Cane branch and Helton Branch in the Beaver Creek basin of Kentucky. Because of previous studies, 10.6 years of record were available to establish a data base for the basin including 60 storms for Cane Branch and 50 storms for Helton Branch. The model was calibrated initially using data from the 1956-58 water years. Runoff predicted by the model was 94.7% of the observed runoff at Cane Branch (mined area) and 96.9% at Helton Branch (unmined area). After the model and data base were modified, the model was refitted to the 1956-58 data for Helton Branch. It then predicted 98.6% of the runoff for the 10.6-year period. The model parameters from Helton Branch were then used to simulate the Cane Branch runoff and discharge. The model predicted 102.6% of the observed runoff at Cane Branch for the 10.6 years. The simulations produced reasonable storm volumes and peak discharges. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters indicated the parameters associated with soil moisture are the most sensitive. The model was used to predict sediment concentration and daily sediment load for selected storm periods. The sediment computations indicated the model can be used to predict sediment concentrations during storm events. (USGS)

Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

devastating impact on coastlines throughout the United States. In order to accurately understand the impacts of storm surges there needs to be an effective ...model. One of the governing systems of equations used to model storm surges’ effects is the Shallow Water Equations (SWE). In this thesis, we solve the...closer to the shoreline. In our simulation, we also learned of the effects spurious waves can have on the results. Due to boundary conditions, a

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

Automatic Detection of Storm Damages Using High-Altitude Photogrammetric Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Litkey, P.; Nurminen, K.; Honkavaara, E.

2013-05-01

The risks of storms that cause damage in forests are increasing due to climate change. Quickly detecting fallen trees, assessing the amount of fallen trees and efficiently collecting them are of great importance for economic and environmental reasons. Visually detecting and delineating storm damage is a laborious and error-prone process; thus, it is important to develop cost-efficient and highly automated methods. Objective of our research project is to investigate and develop a reliable and efficient method for automatic storm damage detection, which is based on airborne imagery that is collected after a storm. The requirements for the method are the before-storm and after-storm surface models. A difference surface is calculated using two DSMs and the locations where significant changes have appeared are automatically detected. In our previous research we used four-year old airborne laser scanning surface model as the before-storm surface. The after-storm DSM was provided from the photogrammetric images using the Next Generation Automatic Terrain Extraction (NGATE) algorithm of Socet Set software. We obtained 100% accuracy in detection of major storm damages. In this investigation we will further evaluate the sensitivity of the storm-damage detection process. We will investigate the potential of national airborne photography, that is collected at no-leaf season, to automatically produce a before-storm DSM using image matching. We will also compare impact of the terrain extraction algorithm to the results. Our results will also promote the potential of national open source data sets in the management of natural disasters.

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2006-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Quantification of the precipitation loss of radiation belt electrons observed by SAMPEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, Weichao; Selesnick, Richard; Li, Xinlin; Looper, Mark

2010-07-01

Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth's radiation belt were quantified using a drift diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The drift diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different magnitudes were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ˜0.5-3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storms and at L shells ranging from L = 3.5 to L = 6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). The storms represent a small storm, a moderate storm from the current solar minimum, and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of relativistic electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX-covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron loss for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates, such as the local time and energy dependence that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.

Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

2017-12-01

HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively, the interaction and partnering have aided and advanced diverse interests, enabled direct and in-kind support towards mutual goals and enabled considerable leverage of resources focused on science and supporting applications.

Pulsing Inertial Oscillation, Supercell Storms, and Surface Mesonetwork Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costen, R. C.; Miller, L. J.

1998-01-01

The pulsing inertial oscillation (PIO) model is a nonlinear, time-dependent, translating vortex solution of the inviscid, compressible fluid dynamic equations in the middle troposphere. The translation of this vortex during a pulse is strikingly similar to that of a supercell storm -- a rotating thunderstorm that can generate tornadoes and hail. Two studies were performed to test the hypothesis that some supercell storms are manifestations of a PIO pulse. The first study applied the model to an intense interior draft whose buoyancy was bounded by a temperature excess of +/- 12 K. The peak updraft speed achieved was 41.5 m/ s and the peak Rossby number was 92.9. The study also pointed to an advanced concept for attaining higher values. The second study applied the PIO model to a supercell storm as a whole and succeeded in replicating its bulk properties, such as mesocyclonic circulation, net mass and moisture influxes, and time track. This study also identified a critical feature of the PIO model that could be tested against storm data: The average vertical draft is downward before the turn in the storm track and upward afterwards. In the conventional theory, the average vertical draft is upward from storm inception until dissipation. These differing draft predictions were compared with the best available data, which are surface mesonetwork data. These data were found to support the PIO model. However, surface data alone are not conclusive, and further measurements are warranted.

Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Coupling from Regional to Global Earth System Models for High-Impact Extreme Weather Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, S. S.; Curcic, M.

2017-12-01

The need for acurrate and integrated impact forecasts of extreme wind, rain, waves, and storm surge is growing as coastal population and built environment expand worldwide. A key limiting factor in forecasting impacts of extreme weather events associated with tropical cycle and winter storms is fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model interface with explicit momentum and energy exchange. It is not only critical for accurate prediction of storm intensity, but also provides coherent wind, rian, ocean waves and currents forecasts for forcing for storm surge. The Unified Wave INterface (UWIN) has been developed for coupling of the atmosphere-wave-ocean models. UWIN couples the atmosphere, wave, and ocean models using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). It is a physically based and computationally efficient coupling sytem that is flexible to use in a multi-model system and portable for transition to the next generation global Earth system prediction mdoels. This standardized coupling framework allows researchers to develop and test air-sea coupling parameterizations and coupled data assimilation, and to better facilitate research-to-operation activities. It has been used and extensively tested and verified in regional coupled model forecasts of tropical cycles and winter storms (Chen and Curcic 2016, Curcic et al. 2016, and Judt et al. 2016). We will present 1) an overview of UWIN and its applications in fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model predictions of hurricanes and coastal winter storms, and 2) implenmentation of UWIN in the NASA GMAO GEOS-5.

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks can be potentially exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise in the northern Gulf coast. An unstructured-grid Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the Gulf of Mexico.more » Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase of semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a parameter “change of inundation depth” through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.« less

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale and below.

The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with the critical information they need to respond quickly and efficiently and to increase public safety and mitigate damage associated with powerful coastal storms. For instance, high resolution local models will predict detailed wave heights, breaking patterns, and current strengths for use in warning systems for harbor-mouth navigation and densely populated coastal regions where beach safety is threatened. The offline applications are intended to equip coastal managers with the information needed to manage and allocate their resources effectively to protect sections of coast that may be most vulnerable to future severe storms.

Radar Differential Phase Signatures of Ice Orientation for the Prediction of Lightning Initiation and Cessation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carey, L.D.; Petersen, W.A.; Deierling, W.

2009-01-01

The majority of lightning-related casualties typically occur during thunderstorm initiation (e.g., first flash) or dissipation (e.g., last flash). The physics of electrification and lightning production during thunderstorm initiation is fairly well understood. As such, the literature includes a number of studies presenting various radar techniques (using reflectivity and, if available, other dual-polarimetric parameters) for the anticipation of initial electrification and first lightning flash. These radar techniques have shown considerable skill at forecasting first flash. On the other hand, electrical processes and lightning production during thunderstorm dissipation are not nearly as well understood and few, if any, successful techniques have been developed to anticipate the last flash and subsequent cessation of lightning. One promising approach involves the use of dual-polarimetric radar variables to infer the presence of oriented ice crystals in lightning producing storms. In the absence of strong vertical electric fields, ice crystals fall with their largest (semi-major) axis in the horizontal associated with gravitational and aerodynamic forces. In thunderstorms, strong vertical electric fields (100-200 kV m(sup -1)) have been shown to orient small (less than 2 mm) ice crystals such that their semi-major axis is vertical (or nearly vertical). After a lightning flash, the electric field is typically relaxed and prior radar research suggests that ice crystals rapidly resume their preferred horizontal orientation. In active thunderstorms, the vertical electric field quickly recovers and the ice crystals repeat this cycle of orientation for each nearby flash. This change in ice crystal orientation from primarily horizontal to vertical during the development of strong vertical electric fields prior to a lightning flash forms the physical basis for anticipating lightning initiation and, potentially, cessation. Research has shown that radar reflectivity (Z) and other co-polar back-scattering radar measurements like differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) typically measured by operational dual-polarimetric radars are not sensitive to these changes in ice crystal orientation. However, prior research has demonstrated that oriented ice crystals cause significant propagation effects that can be routinely measured by most dual-polarimetric radars from X-band (3 cm) to S-band (10 cm) wavelengths using the differential propagation phase shift (often just called differential phase, phi(sub dp)) or its range derivative, the specific differential phase (K(sub dp)). Advantages of the differential phase include independence from absolute or relative power calibration, attenuation, differential attenuation and relative insensitivity to ground clutter and partial beam occultation effects (as long as the signal remains above noise). In research mode, these sorts of techniques have been used to anticipate initial cloud electrification, lightning initiation, and cessation. In this study, we develop a simplified model of ice crystal size, shape, orientation, dielectric, and associated radar scattering and propagation effects in order to simulate various idealized scenarios of ice crystals responding to a hypothetical electric field and their dual-polarimetric radar signatures leading up to lightning initiation and particularly cessation. The sensitivity of the K(sub dp) ice orientation signature to various ice properties and radar wavelength will be explored. Since K(sub dp) is proportional to frequency in the Rayleigh- Gans scattering regime, the ice orientation signatures should be more obvious at higher (lower) frequencies (wavelengths). As a result, simulations at radar wavelengths from 10 cm down to 1 cm (Ka-band) will be conducted. Resonance effects will be considered using the T-matrix method. Since most K(sub dp) Vbased observations have been shown at S-band, we will present ice orientation signatures from C-band (UAH/NASA ARMOR) and X-bd (UAH MAX) dual-polarimetric radars located in Northern Alabama. Issues related to optimal radar scanning for the detection of oriented ice will be discussed. Preliminary suggestions on how these differential phase signatures of oriented ice could contribute to lightning initiation and cessation algorithms will be presented.

High resolution modelling of wind fields for optimization of empirical storm flood predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecht, B.; Frank, H.

2014-05-01

High resolution wind fields are necessary to predict the occurrence of storm flood events and their magnitude. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) created a catalogue of detailed wind fields of 39 historical storms at the German North Sea coast from the years 1962 to 2011. The catalogue is used by the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Wasser-, Küsten- und Naturschutz (NLWKN) coastal research center to improve their flood alert service. The computation of wind fields and other meteorological parameters is based on the model chain of the DWD going from the global model GME via the limited-area model COSMO with 7 km mesh size down to a COSMO model with 2.2 km. To obtain an improved analysis COSMO runs are nudged against observations for the historical storms. The global model GME is initialised from the ERA reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As expected, we got better congruency with observations of the model for the nudging runs than the normal forecast runs for most storms. We also found during the verification process that different land use data sets could influence the results considerably.

Integrated modeling of storm drain and natural channel networks for real-time flash flood forecasting in large urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habibi, H.; Norouzi, A.; Habib, A.; Seo, D. J.

2016-12-01

To produce accurate predictions of flooding in urban areas, it is necessary to model both natural channel and storm drain networks. While there exist many urban hydraulic models of varying sophistication, most of them are not practical for real-time application for large urban areas. On the other hand, most distributed hydrologic models developed for real-time applications lack the ability to explicitly simulate storm drains. In this work, we develop a storm drain model that can be coupled with distributed hydrologic models such as the National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory's Distributed Hydrologic Model, for real-time flash flood prediction in large urban areas to improve prediction and to advance the understanding of integrated response of natural channels and storm drains to rainfall events of varying magnitude and spatiotemporal extent in urban catchments of varying sizes. The initial study area is the Johnson Creek Catchment (40.1 km2) in the City of Arlington, TX. For observed rainfall, the high-resolution (500 m, 1 min) precipitation data from the Dallas-Fort Worth Demonstration Network of the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere radars is used.

Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

2017-10-01

Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.

Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

2016-08-01

Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-08-01

Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

Mechanical, Thermal, and Electrical Energy Storage in a Single Working Body: Electrification and Thermal Effects upon Pressure-Induced Water Intrusion-Extrusion in Nanoporous Solids.

PubMed

Grosu, Yaroslav; Mierzwa, Michał; Eroshenko, Valentine A; Pawlus, Sebastian; Chorażewski, Mirosław; Nedelec, Jean-Marie; Grolier, Jean-Pierre E

2017-03-01

This paper presents the first experimental evidence of pronounced electrification effects upon reversible cycle of forced water intrusion-extrusion in nanoporous hydrophobic materials. Recorded generation of electricity combined with high-pressure calorimetric measurements improves the energy balance of {nanoporous solid + nonwetting liquid} systems by compensating mechanical and thermal energy hysteresis in the cycle. Revealed phenomena provide a novel way of "mechanical to electrical" and/or "thermal to electrical" energy transformation with unprecedented efficiency and additionally open a perspective to increase the efficiency of numerous energy applications based on such systems taking advantage of electricity generation during operational cycle.

Chile rural electrification cooperation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Flowers, L.

1997-12-01

The author describes a joint program to use renewables for rural electrification projects in Chile. The initial focus was in a limited part of the country, involving wind mapping, pilot project planning, training, and development of methodologies for comparative evaluations of resources. To this point three wind hybrid systems have been installed in one region, as a part of the regional private utility, and three additional projects are being designed. Additional resource assessment and training is ongoing. The author points out the difficulties in working with utilities, the importance of signed documentation, and the need to look at these programsmore » as long term because of the time involved in introducing such new technologies.« less

Realities of sustainable development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Annan, R.H.

1997-12-01

The author gives a brief overview of rural electrification projects which have been developed worldwide based on different forms of renewable energy sources. Rural electrification provides hope to the 1.3 billion people who are still unserved by the power grid, and as a consequence are severely disadvantaged in todays economy in most facits of daily life and health. He recommends a more concerted effort to consolidate the experiences gained from present programs in order to present a more organized program by the time of the 2002 UNCED conference. His recommendation is that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory serve as amore » secretariat, to gather and formalize the information which has been learned to this point in time.« less

Run-Curve Design for Energy Saving Operation in a Modern DC-Electrification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koseki, Takafumi; Noda, Takashi

Mechanical brakes are often used by electric trains. These brakes have a few problems like response speed, coefficient of friction, maintenance cost and so on. As a result, methods for actively using regenerative brakes are required. In this paper, we propose the useful pure electric braking, which would involve ordinary brakes by only regenerative brakes without any mechanical brakes at high speed. Benefits of our proposal include a DC-electrification system with regenerative substations that can return powers to the commercial power system and a train that can use the full regenerative braking force. We furthermore evaluate the effects on running time and energies saved by regenerative substations in the proposed method.

The Green Ocean Over the Amazon: Implications for Cloud Electrification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, E.; Blakeslee, R.; Boccippio, D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A convective regime with distinct maritime characteristics (weak updraft, low CCN, prevalent coalescence and rainout, weak mixed phase reflectivity, low glaciation temperature, and little if any lightning) is documented over the Amazon basin of the South American continent, and dubbed the "green ocean". Radar, lightning, thermodynamic and AVHRR satellite observations are examined to shed light on the roles of updraft and aerosol in providing departures from the green ocean regime toward continental behavior. Extreme case studies are identified in which the updraft control is dominant and in which the aerosol control is dominant. The tentative conclusion gives importance to both updrafts and aerosol in shaping the electrification of tropical convection.

Development of Inundation Map for Bantayan Island, Cebu Using Delft3D-Flow Storm Surge Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadra, Camille; Suarez, John Kenneth; Biton, Nophi Ian; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Lapidez, John Phillip; Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

On average, 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility annually, making it vulnerable to different storm hazards. Apart from the frequency of tropical cyclones, the archipelagic nature of the country makes it particularly prone to storm surges. On 08 November 2013, Haiyan, a Category 5 Typhoon with maximum one-minute sustained wind speed of 315 kph, hit the central region of the Philippines. In its path, the howler devastated Bantayan Island, a popular tourist destination. The island is located north of Cebu City, the second largest metropolis of the Philippines in terms of populace. Having been directly hit by Typhoon Haiyan, Bantayan Island was severely damaged by strong winds and storm surges, with more than 11,000 houses totally destroyed while 5,000 more suffered minor damage. The adverse impacts of possible future storm surge events in the island can only be mitigated if hazard maps that depict inundation of the coastal areas of Bantayan are generated. To create such maps, Delft3D-Flow, a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate storm surges. These simulations were made over a 10-m per pixel resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) bathymetry. The results of the coastal inundation model for Typhoon Haiyan's storm surges were validated using data collected from field work and local government reports. The hydrodynamic model of Bantayan was then calibrated using the field data and further simulations were made with varying typhoon tracks. This was done to generate scenarios on the farthest possible inland incursion of storm surges. The output of the study is a detailed storm surge inundation map that depicts safe zones for development of infrastructure near coastal areas and for construction of coastal protection structures. The storm surge inundation map can also be used as basis for disaster preparedness plans of coastal communities threatened by approaching typhoons.

The Storm Time Ring Current Dynamics and Response to CMEs and CIRs Using Van Allen Probes Observations and CIMI Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bingham, S.; Mouikis, C.; Kistler, L. M.; Fok, M. C. H.; Glocer, A.; Farrugia, C. J.; Gkioulidou, M.; Spence, H. E.

2016-12-01

The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CMEs), and co-rotating interaction regions (CIRs). Delineating the differences in the ring current development between these two drivers will aid our understanding of the ring current dynamics. Using Van Allen Probes observations, we develop an empirical ring current model of the ring current pressure, the pressure anisotropy and the current density development during the storm phases for both types of storm drivers and for all MLTs inside L 6. In addition, we identify the populations (energy and species) responsible. We find that during the storm main phase and the early recovery phase the plasma sheet particles (10-80 keV) convecting from the nightside contribute the most on the ring current pressure and current density. However, during these phases, the main difference between CMEs and CIRs is in the O+ contribution. This empirical model is compared to the results of CIMI simulations of CMEs and CIRs where the model input is comprised of the superposed epoch solar wind conditions of the storms that comprise the empirical model, while different inner magnetosphere boundary conditions will be tested in order to match the empirical model results. Comparing the model and simulation results will fill our understanding of the ring current dynamics as part of the highly coupled inner magnetosphere system.

Multivariate Statistical Models for Predicting Sediment Yields from Southern California Watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gartner, Joseph E.; Cannon, Susan H.; Helsel, Dennis R.; Bandurraga, Mark

2009-01-01

Debris-retention basins in Southern California are frequently used to protect communities and infrastructure from the hazards of flooding and debris flow. Empirical models that predict sediment yields are used to determine the size of the basins. Such models have been developed using analyses of records of the amount of material removed from debris retention basins, associated rainfall amounts, measures of watershed characteristics, and wildfire extent and history. In this study we used multiple linear regression methods to develop two updated empirical models to predict sediment yields for watersheds located in Southern California. The models are based on both new and existing measures of volume of sediment removed from debris retention basins, measures of watershed morphology, and characterization of burn severity distributions for watersheds located in Ventura, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino Counties. The first model presented reflects conditions in watersheds located throughout the Transverse Ranges of Southern California and is based on volumes of sediment measured following single storm events with known rainfall conditions. The second model presented is specific to conditions in Ventura County watersheds and was developed using volumes of sediment measured following multiple storm events. To relate sediment volumes to triggering storm rainfall, a rainfall threshold was developed to identify storms likely to have caused sediment deposition. A measured volume of sediment deposited by numerous storms was parsed among the threshold-exceeding storms based on relative storm rainfall totals. The predictive strength of the two models developed here, and of previously-published models, was evaluated using a test dataset consisting of 65 volumes of sediment yields measured in Southern California. The evaluation indicated that the model developed using information from single storm events in the Transverse Ranges best predicted sediment yields for watersheds in San Bernardino, Los Angeles, and Ventura Counties. This model predicts sediment yield as a function of the peak 1-hour rainfall, the watershed area burned by the most recent fire (at all severities), the time since the most recent fire, watershed area, average gradient, and relief ratio. The model that reflects conditions specific to Ventura County watersheds consistently under-predicted sediment yields and is not recommended for application. Some previously-published models performed reasonably well, while others either under-predicted sediment yields or had a larger range of errors in the predicted sediment yields.

Quantifying Power Grid Risk from Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homeier, N.; Wei, L. H.; Gannon, J. L.

2012-12-01

We are creating a statistical model of the geophysical environment that can be used to quantify the geomagnetic storm hazard to power grid infrastructure. Our model is developed using a database of surface electric fields for the continental United States during a set of historical geomagnetic storms. These electric fields are derived from the SUPERMAG compilation of worldwide magnetometer data and surface impedances from the United States Geological Survey. This electric field data can be combined with a power grid model to determine GICs per node and reactive MVARs at each minute during a storm. Using publicly available substation locations, we derive relative risk maps by location by combining magnetic latitude and ground conductivity. We also estimate the surface electric fields during the August 1972 geomagnetic storm that caused a telephone cable outage across the middle of the United States. This event produced the largest surface electric fields in the continental U.S. in at least the past 40 years.

Empirical Storm-Time Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere Model E-Region Electron and Ion Density Parameterizations Using Observations from TIMED/SABER

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christoper J.; Winick, Jeremy R.; Russell, James M., III; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Evans, David S.; Bilitza, Dieter; Xu, Xiaojing

2007-01-01

The response of the ionospheric E-region to solar-geomagnetic storms can be characterized using observations of infrared 4.3 micrometers emission. In particular, we utilize nighttime TIMED/SABER measurements of broadband 4.3 micrometers limb emission and derive a new data product, the NO+(v) volume emission rate, which is our primary observation-based quantity for developing an empirical storm-time correction the IRI E-region electron density. In this paper we describe our E-region proxy and outline our strategy for developing the empirical storm model. In our initial studies, we analyzed a six day storm period during the Halloween 2003 event. The results of this analysis are promising and suggest that the ap-index is a viable candidate to use as a magnetic driver for our model.

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Valenti, Elizabeth; Fitzpatrick, Patrick

2005-01-01

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

A novel ice storm manipulation experiment in a northern hardwood forest

Treesearch

Lindsey E. Rustad; John L. Campbell

2012-01-01

Ice storms are an important natural disturbance within forest ecosystems of the northeastern United States. Current models suggest that the frequency and severity of ice storms may increase in the coming decades in response to changes in climate. Because of the stochastic nature of ice storms and difficulties in predicting their occurrence, most past investigations of...

Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used throughout the world for planning, analysis and design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban areas.

Impacts of Storm Surge Mitigation Strategies on Aboveground Storage Tank Chemical Spill Transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Do, C.; Bass, B. J.; Bernier, C.; Samii, A.; Dawson, C.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

The Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located in the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston region of the upper Texas Coast, is one of the busiest waterways in the United States and is home to one of the largest petrochemical complexes in the world. Due to the proximity of the HSC to Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, chemical spills resulting from storm surge damage to aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) pose serious threats to the environment, residential communities, and national/international markets whose activities in the HSC generate billions of dollars annually. In an effort to develop a comprehensive storm surge mitigation strategy for Galveston Bay and its constituents, Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center proposed two structural storm surge mitigation concepts, the Mid Bay Structure (MBS) and the Lower Bay Structure (LBS) as components of the Houston-Galveston Area Protection System (H-GAPS) project. The MBS consists of levees along the HSC and a navigational gate across the channel, and the LBS consists of a navigation gate and environmental gates across Bolivar Road. The impacts of these two barrier systems on the fate of AST chemical spills in the HSC have previously been unknown. This study applies the coupled 2D SWAN+ADCIRC model to simulate hurricane storm surge circulation within the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay due to a synthetic storm which results in approximately 250-year surge levels in Galveston Bay. The SWAN+ADCIRC model is run using high-resolution computational meshes that incorporate the MBS and LBS scenarios, separately. The resulting wind and water velocities are then fed into a Lagrangian particle transport model to simulate the spill trajectories of the ASTs most likely to fail during the 250-year proxy storm. Results from this study illustrate how each storm surge mitigation strategy impacts the transport of chemical spills (modeled as Lagrangian particles) during storm surge as compared to the base case with only currently existing mitigation features in place. This study is part of a larger effort to evaluate the costs and benefits of several storm surge mitigation configurations proposed by the H-GAPS project.

Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, R.-S.; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Park, Y.-D.; Kim, Y.-H.

2014-01-01

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz = -5 nT or Ey = 3 mV/m for t = 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than -50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (n, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (?, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

The SZ-5 Spaceship Orbit Changes During The 2003 "Halloween Storm"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, C.; Liu, D.; Guo, J.

2017-12-01

We analyse the daily major semi-axis variations of SZ-5 (ShenZhou V) spaceship during Oct. 20 to Dec. 30 in 2003, which includes the period of the 2003 "Halloween Storm". The significant orbital decay has been observed in late October due to the great solar flares and the severe geomagnetic storms. According to the equation of the air-drag-force on a spacecraft and the SZ-5 orbital decay information, we derive the thermospheric density relative changes during the 2003 "Halloween Storm" and compare the results with the Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter Radar Extended Model (NRLMSISE-00). The analyses show that the thermosperic density (at the altitude of SZ-5, about 350 km) in storm time enchances to approximately three times as much as that in the quiet time but the empirical model may underestimate the thermospheric density changes during this severe storm.

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf.

PubMed

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-07-28

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.

Ionospheric E-Region Response to Solar-Geomagnetic Storms Observed by TIMED/SABER and Application to IRI Storm-Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Mast, Jeffrey C.; Winick, Jeremy R.; Russell, James M., III; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Evans, David S.

2007-01-01

The large thermospheric infrared radiance enhancements observed from the TIMED/SABER experiment during recent solar storms provide an exciting opportunity to study the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances on the upper atmosphere and ionosphere. In particular, nighttime enhancements of 4.3 um emission, due to vibrational excitation and radiative emission by NO+, provide an excellent proxy to study and analyze the response of the ionospheric E-region to auroral electron dosing and storm-time enhancements to the E-region electron density. In this paper we give a status report of on-going work on model and data analysis methodologies of deriving NO+ 4.3 um volume emission rates, a proxy for the storm-time E-region response, and the approach for deriving an empirical storm-time correction to International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region NO+ and electron densities.

Contact electrification induced interfacial reactions and direct electrochemical nanoimprint lithography in n-type gallium arsenate wafer.

PubMed

Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Lin; Wang, Wei; Han, Lianhuan; Jia, Jing-Chun; Tian, Zhao-Wu; Tian, Zhong-Qun; Zhan, Dongping

2017-03-01

Although metal assisted chemical etching (MacEtch) has emerged as a versatile micro-nanofabrication method for semiconductors, the chemical mechanism remains ambiguous in terms of both thermodynamics and kinetics. Here we demonstrate an innovative phenomenon, i.e. , the contact electrification between platinum (Pt) and an n-type gallium arsenide (100) wafer (n-GaAs) can induce interfacial redox reactions. Because of their different work functions, when the Pt electrode comes into contact with n-GaAs, electrons will move from n-GaAs to Pt and form a contact electric field at the Pt/n-GaAs junction until their electron Fermi levels ( E F ) become equal. In the presence of an electrolyte, the potential of the Pt/electrolyte interface will shift due to the contact electricity and induce the spontaneous reduction of MnO 4 - anions on the Pt surface. Because the equilibrium of contact electrification is disturbed, electrons will transfer from n-GaAs to Pt through the tunneling effect. Thus, the accumulated positive holes at the n-GaAs/electrolyte interface make n-GaAs dissolve anodically along the Pt/n-GaAs/electrolyte 3-phase interface. Based on this principle, we developed a direct electrochemical nanoimprint lithography method applicable to crystalline semiconductors.

Sino/American cooperation for rural electrification in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, William L.; Tsuo, Y. Simon

1997-02-01

Rapid growth in economic development, coupled with the absence of an electric grid in large areas of the rural countryside, have created a need for new energy sources both in urban centers and rural areas in China. There is a very large need for new sources of energy for rural electrification in China as represented by 120 million people in remote regions who do not have access to an electric grid and by over 300 coastal islands in China that are unelectrified. In heavily populated regions in China where there is an electric grid, there are still severe shortages of electric power and limited access to the grid by village populations. In order to meet energy demands in rural China, renewable energy in the form of solar, wind, and biomass resources are being utilized as a cost effective alternative to grid extension and use of diesel and gasoline generators. An Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Protocol Agreement was signed by the U.S. Department of Energy with the Chinese State Science and Technology Commission in Beijing in February, 1995. Under this agreement, projects using photovoltaics for rural electrification are being conducted in Gansu Province in western China and Inner Mongolia in northern China, providing the basis for much wider deployment and use of photovoltaics for meeting the growing rural energy demands of China.

A Simple Approach to Characterize Gas-Aqueous Liquid Two-phase Flow Configuration Based on Discrete Solid-Liquid Contact Electrification

PubMed Central

Choi, Dongwhi; Lee, Donghyeon; Sung Kim, Dong

2015-01-01

In this study, we first suggest a simple approach to characterize configuration of gas-aqueous liquid two–phase flow based on discrete solid-liquid contact electrification, which is a newly defined concept as a sequential process of solid-liquid contact and successive detachment of the contact liquid from the solid surface. This approach exhibits several advantages such as simple operation, precise measurement, and cost-effectiveness. By using electric potential that is spontaneously generated by discrete solid–liquid contact electrification, the configurations of the gas-aqueous liquid two-phase flow such as size of a gas slug and flow rate are precisely characterized. According to the experimental and numerical analyses on parameters that affect electric potential, gas slugs have been verified to behave similarly to point electric charges when the measuring point of the electric potential is far enough from the gas slug. In addition, the configuration of the gas-aqueous liquid two-phase microfluidic system with multiple gas slugs is also characterized by using the presented approach. For a proof-of-concept demonstration of using the proposed approach in a self-triggered sensor, a gas slug detector with a counter system is developed to show its practicality and applicability. PMID:26462437

A Simple Approach to Characterize Gas-Aqueous Liquid Two-phase Flow Configuration Based on Discrete Solid-Liquid Contact Electrification.

PubMed

Choi, Dongwhi; Lee, Donghyeon; Kim, Dong Sung

2015-10-14

In this study, we first suggest a simple approach to characterize configuration of gas-aqueous liquid two-phase flow based on discrete solid-liquid contact electrification, which is a newly defined concept as a sequential process of solid-liquid contact and successive detachment of the contact liquid from the solid surface. This approach exhibits several advantages such as simple operation, precise measurement, and cost-effectiveness. By using electric potential that is spontaneously generated by discrete solid-liquid contact electrification, the configurations of the gas-aqueous liquid two-phase flow such as size of a gas slug and flow rate are precisely characterized. According to the experimental and numerical analyses on parameters that affect electric potential, gas slugs have been verified to behave similarly to point electric charges when the measuring point of the electric potential is far enough from the gas slug. In addition, the configuration of the gas-aqueous liquid two-phase microfluidic system with multiple gas slugs is also characterized by using the presented approach. For a proof-of-concept demonstration of using the proposed approach in a self-triggered sensor, a gas slug detector with a counter system is developed to show its practicality and applicability.

Hindcast experiments of the derecho in Estonia on 08 August, 2010: Modelling derecho with NWP model HARMONIE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Männik, Aarne; Luhamaa, Andres; Rõõm, Rein

2015-05-01

On August 8, 2010, a derecho swept over Northern Europe, causing widespread wind damage and more than 2 million Euros in economic loss in Estonia during its most destructive stage. This paper presents a modelling study of the derecho-producing storm utilising the Hirlam Aladin Research for Mesoscale Operational Numerical Weather Prediction in Europe (HARMONIE) model. The model setup is chosen to mimic near-future, nearly kilometre-scale, operational environments in European national weather services. The model simulations are compared to remote sensing and in situ observations. The HARMONIE model is capable of reproducing the wind gust severity and precipitation intensity. Moreover, 2.5-km grid spacing is shown to be sufficient for producing a reliable signal of the severe convective storm. Storm dynamics are well simulated, including the rear inflow jet. Although the model performance is promising, a strong dependence on the initial data, a weak trailing stratiform precipitation region and an incorrect timing of the storm are identified.

Hurricane Isaac: A Longitudinal Analysis of Storm Characteristics and Power Outage Risk.

PubMed

Tonn, Gina L; Guikema, Seth D; Ferreira, Celso M; Quiring, Steven M

2016-10-01

In August 2012, Hurricane Isaac, a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, caused extensive power outages in Louisiana. The storm brought high winds, storm surge, and flooding to Louisiana, and power outages were widespread and prolonged. Hourly power outage data for the state of Louisiana were collected during the storm and analyzed. This analysis included correlation of hourly power outage figures by zip code with storm conditions including wind, rainfall, and storm surge using a nonparametric ensemble data mining approach. Results were analyzed to understand how correlation of power outages with storm conditions differed geographically within the state. This analysis provided insight on how rainfall and storm surge, along with wind, contribute to power outages in hurricanes. By conducting a longitudinal study of outages at the zip code level, we were able to gain insight into the causal drivers of power outages during hurricanes. Our analysis showed that the statistical importance of storm characteristic covariates to power outages varies geographically. For Hurricane Isaac, wind speed, precipitation, and previous outages generally had high importance, whereas storm surge had lower importance, even in zip codes that experienced significant surge. The results of this analysis can inform the development of power outage forecasting models, which often focus strictly on wind-related covariates. Our study of Hurricane Isaac indicates that inclusion of other covariates, particularly precipitation, may improve model accuracy and robustness across a range of storm conditions and geography. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Aircraft Observation of Gravity Wave Breaking at the Storm Top and Comparison with High Resolution Cloud Model Simulations and Satellite Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, P. K.; Cheng, K. Y.; Lindsey, D. T.

2017-12-01

Deep convective clouds play an important role in the transport of momentum, energy, and chemical species from the surface to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS), but exactly how these processes occur and how important they are as compared to other processes are still up to debate. The main hurdle to the complete understanding of these transport processes is the difficulty in observing storm systems directly. Remote sensing data such as those obtained by radars and satellites are very valuable but they need correct interpretation before we can use them profitably. We have performed numerical simulations of thunderstorms using a physics-based cloud resolving model and compared model results with satellite observations. Many major features of observed satellite storm top images, such as cold-V, close in warm area, above anvil cirrus plumes, are successfully simulated and can be interpreted by the model physics. However, due to the limitation of resolution and other ambiguities, we have been unable to determine the real cause of some features such as the conversion of jumping cirrus to long trail plumes and whether or no small scale ( < 1 km) wave breaking occur. We are fortunate to have encountered a line of sea breeze storms along the coast of China during a flight from Beijing to Taipei in July 2106. The flight was at an altitude such that storm tops could be clearly observed. Nearly all of the mature storm cells that can be identified had very vigorous storm top activities, indicating very strong stratosphere/troposphere exchange (STE). There is no doubt that the signatures of wave breaking, i.e., jumping cirrus, occurs from very small scale (< 1 km) to tens of km. this matches our previous model results very well. Furthermore, one storm cell shows very clearly the process whereby a jumping cirrus is being transformed into a long trail cirrus plume which was often observed in satellite images. We have also obtained the corresponding Himawari-8 satellite images for this line of storms. Aircraft observation, satellite images and model results will be compared and the implications to STE discussed.

Surrogate modeling of joint flood risk across coastal watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bass, Benjamin; Bedient, Philip

2018-03-01

This study discusses the development and performance of a rapid prediction system capable of representing the joint rainfall-runoff and storm surge flood response of tropical cyclones (TCs) for probabilistic risk analysis. Due to the computational demand required for accurately representing storm surge with the high-fidelity ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model and its coupling with additional numerical models to represent rainfall-runoff, a surrogate or statistical model was trained to represent the relationship between hurricane wind- and pressure-field characteristics and their peak joint flood response typically determined from physics based numerical models. This builds upon past studies that have only evaluated surrogate models for predicting peak surge, and provides the first system capable of probabilistically representing joint flood levels from TCs. The utility of this joint flood prediction system is then demonstrated by improving upon probabilistic TC flood risk products, which currently account for storm surge but do not take into account TC associated rainfall-runoff. Results demonstrate the source apportionment of rainfall-runoff versus storm surge and highlight that slight increases in flood risk levels may occur due to the interaction between rainfall-runoff and storm surge as compared to the Federal Emergency Management Association's (FEMAs) current practices.

Comparison of Dst Forecast Models for Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ji, Eun-Young; Moon, Y.-J.; Gopalswamy, N.; Lee, D.-H.

2012-01-01

We have compared six disturbance storm time (Dst) forecast models using 63 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst <=100 nT) that occurred from 1998 to 2006. For comparison, we estimated linear correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Dst data and the predicted Dst during the geomagnetic storm period as well as the difference of the value of minimum Dst (Delta Dst(sub min)) and the difference in the absolute value of Dst minimum time (Delta t(sub Dst)) between the observed and the predicted. As a result, we found that the model by Temerin and Li gives the best prediction for all parameters when all 63 events are considered. The model gives the average values: the linear correlation coefficient of 0.94, the RMS error of 14.8 nT, the Delta Dst(sub min) of 7.7 nT, and the absolute value of Delta t(sub Dst) of 1.5 hour. For further comparison, we classified the storm events into two groups according to the magnitude of Dst. We found that the model of Temerin and Lee is better than the other models for the events having 100 <= Dst < 200 nT, and three recent models (the model of Wang et al., the model of Temerin and Li, and the model of Boynton et al.) are better than the other three models for the events having Dst <= 200 nT.

Impacts of storms on coastal circulation in Long Bay, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H.; Warner, J. C.; Voulgaris, G.; Work, P.

2006-12-01

We investigate the effects of coastal storms on the regional circulation in Long Bay, South Carolina, using a coupled ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System)- SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model. Meteorological observations during the South Carolina Coastal Erosion Study (October 2003 April 2004) reveal three dominant types of storms in the region warm fronts, cold fronts, and tropical storms. Each storm has a characteristic progression of wind patterns: (1) Warm fronts start with southwestward winds and change to northeastward after the front passes; (2) Cold fronts begin with northeastward winds and shift to southeastward when the front moves out; and (3) Tropical storms change wind directions from the southwest to the southeast during the storm. It is observed the coastal circulation distinctly responds to such atmospheric disturbances in either a upwelling-favorable condition to the northeastward winds or a downwelling-favorable condition to the southwestward winds. The study domain encompasses 300-km of gently arcing shoreline between Cape Romain to Cape Fear, and approximately 100-km offshore to the shelf edge. The model domain is resolved by a 300×130 mesh at 1-km intervals in the horizontal and twenty terrain-following layers in the vertical. The ROMS model is driven by tides and wind stress, and it includes wave-current interactions via dynamic coupling to the surface wave model SWAN. Salinity and temperature along the open boundaries are included by nudging to climatological values. A time period of six months is simulated from October 2003 to April 2004, concurrent with the observation study. Model results are compared to an extensive set of measurements collected at eight sites in the inner part of Long Bay, and are used to identify varying circulation response to each storm type. In addition, we investigate the significance of the Capes on the development of the alongshore pressure gradients, and examine the importance of wave-current interactions in the study region.

SWMM-CAT User’s Guide

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model Climate Adjustment Tool (SWMM-CAT) is a simple to use software utility that allows future climate change projections to be incorporated into the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM).

Improving high impact weather and climate prediction for societal resilience in Subtropical South America: Proyecto RELAMPAGO-CACTI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nesbitt, S. W.; Salio, P. V.; Varble, A.; Trapp, R. J.; Roberts, R. R.; Dominguez, F.; Machado, L.; Saulo, C.

2017-12-01

Subtropical South America is host to many types of weather and climate hazards. The convective systems that initiate near and apart from the complex terrain of the Andes and Sierras de Córdoba are by many measures the most intense in the world, producing hazards such as damaging winds, hail, tornadoes, extreme and unusual lightning behavior, and flash and riverine flooding. These systems are modulated by interannual, intraseasonal, and synoptic drivers, however multi-scale models suffer from extreme biases in low level temperature and humidity due to their poor representation of organized convection and representation of convection near complex terrain, which hampers predictive skill of relevant processes across all timescales. To address these cross-cutting issues, we have proposed a large, multi-agency international field campaign called RELAMPAGO-CACTI, which will address key gaps in physical process understanding in the production of convective storms in this region. RELAMPAGO (Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations), funded by NSF/NOAA/NASA/MinCyT/FAPESP, will be a 24-month hydrological-meteorological field campaign, with an intensive observing period 1 Nov - 15 Dec 2018 in the near the Sierras de Córdoba (SDC), the Andes foothills near Mendoza, and the region near São Borja, Brazil. A complementary funded 7-month DOE field campaign called Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI), which will focus on detailed observations of cloud and aerosol lifecycle near the SDC while an intensive observing period featuring aircraft observations will match RELAMPAGO's. While collecting the observations will enhance knowledge of the processes acting to modulate extremes in the region, a coordinated modeling effort will aim to evaluate coupled weather, climate, and hydrologic models using RELAMPAGO-CACTI observations. In addition, partnerships with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of Argentina and Brazil's Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), as well as related international and local societal impacts projects such as the World Meteorological Organization's High-Impact Weather project will enable improved end-to-end impacts predictions in this vulnerable region.

Deep carbon reductions in California require electrification and integration across economic sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Max; Nelson, James H.; Greenblatt, Jeffery B.; Mileva, Ana; Johnston, Josiah; Ting, Michael; Yang, Christopher; Jones, Chris; McMahon, James E.; Kammen, Daniel M.

2013-03-01

Meeting a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels in the year 2050 requires detailed long-term planning due to complexity, inertia, and path dependency in the energy system. A detailed investigation of supply and demand alternatives is conducted to assess requirements for future California energy systems that can meet the 2050 GHG target. Two components are developed here that build novel analytic capacity and extend previous studies: (1) detailed bottom-up projections of energy demand across the building, industry and transportation sectors; and (2) a high-resolution variable renewable resource capacity planning model (SWITCH) that minimizes the cost of electricity while meeting GHG policy goals in the 2050 timeframe. Multiple pathways exist to a low-GHG future, all involving increased efficiency, electrification, and a dramatic shift from fossil fuels to low-GHG energy. The electricity system is found to have a diverse, cost-effective set of options that meet aggressive GHG reduction targets. This conclusion holds even with increased demand from transportation and heating, but the optimal levels of wind and solar deployment depend on the temporal characteristics of the resulting load profile. Long-term policy support is found to be a key missing element for the successful attainment of the 2050 GHG target in California.

A multi-scale hybrid neural network retrieval model for dust storm detection, a study in Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Man Sing; Xiao, Fei; Nichol, Janet; Fung, Jimmy; Kim, Jhoon; Campbell, James; Chan, P. W.

2015-05-01

Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on human health and significant impact on weather, air quality, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the large uncertainties in global climate modeling, due to its significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. Observations of dust storms in humid tropical south China (e.g. Hong Kong), are challenging due to high industrial pollution from the nearby Pearl River Delta region. This study develops a method for dust storm detection by combining ground station observations (PM10 concentration, AERONET data), geostationary satellite images (MTSAT), and numerical weather and climatic forecasting products (WRF/Chem). The method is based on a hybrid neural network (NN) retrieval model for two scales: (i) a NN model for near real-time detection of dust storms at broader regional scale; (ii) a NN model for detailed dust storm mapping for Hong Kong and Taiwan. A feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) NN, trained using back propagation (BP) algorithm, was developed and validated by the k-fold cross validation approach. The accuracy of the near real-time detection MLP-BP network is 96.6%, and the accuracies for the detailed MLP-BP neural network for Hong Kong and Taiwan is 74.8%. This newly automated multi-scale hybrid method can be used to give advance near real-time mapping of dust storms for environmental authorities and the public. It is also beneficial for identifying spatial locations of adverse air quality conditions, and estimates of low visibility associated with dust events for port and airport authorities.

Storm surges formation in the White and Barents Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkhipkin, Victor; Dobrolyubov, Sergey; Korablina, Anastasia; Myslenkov, Stanislav

2016-04-01

Investigation of storm surges in the Arctic seas are of high priority in Russia due to the active development of offshore oil and gas, construction of facilities in the coastal zone, as well as for the safety of navigation. It is important to study the variability of surges, to predict this phenomena and subsequent economic losses, thus including such information into the Russian Arctic Development Program 2020. Surges in the White and Barents Seas are caused mainly by deep cyclones of two types: "diving" from the north (88% of all cyclones) and western. The average height of the storm surges in the White Sea is 0.6-0.9 m. An average duration of storm surges is about 80 hours. Mathematical modeling is used to analyze the characteristics of storm surges formation in the Dvina Bay of the White Sea, and in the Varandey village on the Barents Sea coast. Calculating storm surge heights in the White and Barents seas is performed using the ADCIRC model on an unstructured grid with a step from 20 km in the Barents Sea to 100 m in the White Sea. Unstructured grids allowed keeping small features of the coastline of the White and Barents seas, small islands and shallow banks, and assessing their impact on the development and transformation of wind-generated waves. The ADCIRC model used data of wind field reanalysis CFSv2. The storm surges were simulated for the time period from 1979 to 2010 and included scenarios with / without direct atmospheric pressure forcing, waves and tides. Numerical experiments have revealed distribution of storm surges in channels of the Northern Dvina River delta. The storm surges spreads in the model from the north-north-west of the Dvina Bay. As storm surge moves from the wellhead to the seaside estuary of the Northern Dvina (district Solombala), its height increases from 0.5 to 2 m. We also found a non-linear interaction of the surge and tide during the phase of surge destruction. This phenomenon is the highest in the period of low water, and the smallest in the period full of water. Analysis of storm surges in the Varandey village (the southern part of the Barents Sea) showed that the maximum height of storm surge reached 2.9 m in this region in July, 2010. The work performed was supported by the RSCF (grant № 14-37-00038)

THE STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL (SWMM) AND RELATED WATERSHED TOOLS DEVELOPMENT

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. It is the only publicly available model capable of performing a comprehensiv...

Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.

2014-02-01

Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario. In this study, we advance this paradigm by adjusting the model framework so that it reflects not only a change in sea state but also variations to the landscape (morphologic changes and urbanization of coastal cities). We utilize a numerical model of the Mississippi and Alabama coast to simulate the response of hurricane storm surge to changes in sea level, land use/land cover, and land surface elevation for past (1960), present (2005), and future (2050) conditions. The results show that the storm surge response to SLR is dynamic and sensitive to changes in the landscape. We introduce a new modeling framework that includes modification of the landscape when producing storm surge models for future conditions.

A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

PubMed Central

Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

2015-01-01

Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models. PMID:26499262

A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea.

PubMed

Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

2015-10-26

Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

2015-10-01

Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-01-01

Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Cyclone Xaver seen by SARAL/AltiKa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharroo, Remko; Fenoglio, Luciana; Annunziato, Alessandro

2014-05-01

During the first week of December 2013, Cyclone Xaver pounded the coasts and the North Sea. On 6 December, all along the Wadden Sea, the barrier islands along the north of the Netherlands and the northwest of Germany experienced record storm surges. We show a comparison of the storm surge measured by the radar altimeter AltiKa on-board the SARAL satellite and various types of in-situ data and models. Two tide gauges along the German North Sea coast, one in the southern harbour of the island of Helgoland and one on an offshore lighthouse Alte Weser, confirmed that the storm drove sea level to about three meters above the normal tide level. Loading effects during the storm are also detected by the GPS measurements at several tide gauge stations. The altimeter in the mean time shows that the storm surge was noticeable as far as 400 km from the coast. The altimeter measured wind speeds of 20 m/s nearly monotonically throughout the North Sea. An offshore anemometer near the island of Borkum corroborated this value. A buoy near the FINO1 offshore platform measured wave heights of 8 m, matching quite well the measurements from the altimeter, ranging from 6 m near the German coast to 12 m further out into the North Sea. Furthermore we compare the altimeter-derived and in-situ sea level, wave height and wind speed products with outputs from the Operation Circulation and Forecast model of the Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH) and with a global storm surge forecast and inundation model of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. The Operational circulation model of BSH (BSHcmod) and its component, the surge model (BSHsmod), perform daily predictions for the next 72 hours based on the meteorological model of the Deutsche Wetterdienst (DWD). The JRC Storm Surge Calculation System is a new development that has been established at the JRC in the framework of the Global Disasters Alerts and Coordination System (GDACS). The system uses meteorological forecasts produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to estimate (with a 2-day lead time) potential storm surges due to cyclone or general storm events. Departure between model and altimeter-derived values, in particularly wind, are investigated and discussed. The qualitative agreement is satisfactory; the maximum storm surge peak is correctly estimated by BSH but underestimated by JRC due to insufficient wind forcing. The wind speed of SARAL/AltiKa agrees well with the ECMWF model wind speed but is lower than the DWD model estimate. The authors acknowledge the kind support from the BSH, the Bundesumweltministerium (BMU), Projectträger Jülich (PTJ), and the Wasser- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV).

Patronage power: Rural electrification, river development, and Lyndon Johnson (1937--1939)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dusek, Paul-Michael Mays

Few historians document Lyndon Johnson's efforts to construct a state-wide political machine at the local level early in his congressional career. The literature glorifies Johnson for hydroelectric river development and rural electrification. This thesis acknowledges the transformative nature of rural electrification in Central Texas through the efforts of Johnson but, more importantly, reveals how extensively Johnson sought to capitalize on the tail-end of the New Deal to utilize government-funded relief projects to establish a state-wide political machine. An analysis of the correspondence between Johnson, his local political operators, members of his state-wide network, and rural constituents reveals another layer to the complexity of Johnson and further exposes his ambitious, calculating nature. Johnson used rural electrification to first create a community of supporters in his congressional district then used rural electrification and multipurpose river development programs to cultivate political contacts across the state of Texas. This thesis explores the first time that Lyndon Johnson used patronage to develop a political community as a publicly elected official. Johnson pushed for constant expansion of operations to ensure a steady supply of new jobs while displaying a cavalier attitude about specific regulations regarding the allocation of funds. His machine manipulated and massaged congressional appropriations restrictions and utilized multiple congressional revenue streams to stretch finances further and lower overhead costs to increase the scope of operations thus further improving the lives of his constituents. Johnson also used this movement to efficiently and effectively construct a foundation for his political machine. This thesis also clarifies an early moment in Johnson's beliefs about civil rights. Instead of standing on principle, Johnson relied on extortion and threats to fight racism at this early juncture in his political career because of his own personal ambition. Burning ambition—his own personal sense of political self-preservation—trumped Johnson's early beliefs about civil rights. Therefore because of his personal ambition he kept his opinions about civil rights silent while his operators utilized "out of sight, out of mind" policies towards race relations when necessary. While building this political community Johnson pledged electricity for votes. He had two goals: (1) create a market for LCRA-generated power to prevent private utilities from acquiring the power, and (2) create a political machine. Initially growth occurred slowly but Johnson used modern forms of communications and propaganda to construct a community; including radio, newsprint, theater, and public events and affairs. Johnson also laid the foundations for this community through the creation of shared community space and the promotion of a shared community-mindset. Johnson prioritized the creation of these community spaces over the construction of transmission lines and engaged in deceit when necessary—Arthur Stehling committed forgery—while pursuing Johnson's plans for the formation of this political machine through the conception of a new, common community. Johnson pushed for optimal growth and utilized every opportunity for publicity. These new structures signified the changes occurring across the landscape and for the first time the people of Central Texas began to feel the relief of the New Deal—five years after President Roosevelt initiated relief efforts. Subsequently, the people of Central Texas supported Johnson in his political endeavors. Secondly, this thesis explores the geographical expansion of multipurpose river development and rural electrification operations in Central Texas. Expansion was priority number one because this increased Johnson's political clout in Central Texas. Johnson expanded his control by infiltrating or manipulating newly forming rural electric cooperatives. His operators side-stepped or rewrote local laws when necessary to aid development. Finally, Johnson heavily influenced decisions pertaining to personnel during his expansion of territory and consolidation of control. Ambition and opportunism created numerous occasions for patronage, publicity, and unbridled expansion. Within the LCRA, Johnson shifted focus from dam construction to development of rural electric cooperatives. Johnson's promotional efforts made the congressman the target of various groups seeking support for river development within their respective communities. At times, Johnson used heavy-handed tactics to achieve desired results. Finally, Johnson and his operators continued to marginalize members of the Karnes cooperative until personally ordered to stop by the National Director of the Rural Electrification Administration. Johnson's involvement in determining the location of a cooperative headquarters in Karnes County to cultivate the support of local political players demonstrates how ambition, expansion of name-recognition, and the cultivation of political power at the local level to build a state-wide machine define Johnson's early involvement in rural electrification and multipurpose river development in late 1930s Central Texas. Therefore, this thesis builds upon traditional interpretations of Johnson's participation in rural electrification and properly places his involvement into a more complete context. This thesis also breaks up the neat compartmentalization that previously occurred to create a more comprehensive outlook. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study Phase I: Statistical Analysis of Historical Extreme Water Levels with Sea Level Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-01

14-7 ii Abstract The U.S. North Atlantic coast is subject to coastal flooding as a result of both severe extratropical storms (e.g., Nor’easters...Products and Services, excluding any kind of high-resolution hydrodynamic modeling. Tropical and extratropical storms were treated as a single...joint probability analysis and high-fidelity modeling of tropical and extratropical storms

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.

2009-12-01

The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future West Coast storms. A task of ARkStorm is to elevate the visibility of the very real threats to human life, property, and ecosystems posed by extreme storms on the U.S. West Coast. This enhanced visibility will help increase the preparedness of the emergency management community and the public to such storms. ARkStorm is scheduled to be completed by September 2010 and will be the basis of a state-wide emergency response drill, Golden Guardian, led by the California Emergency Management Agency in 2011.

On using scatterometer and altimeter data to improve storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg; De Biasio, Francesco; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-04-01

Satellite data are seldom used in storm surge forecasting. Among the most important issues related to the storm surge forecasting are the quality of the model wind forcing and the initial condition of the sea surface elevation. In this work, focused on storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea, satellite scatterometer wind data are used to correct the wind speed and direction biases of the ECMWF global atmospheric model by tuning the spatial fields, as an alternative to data assimilation. The capability of such an unbiased wind is tested against that of a high resolution wind, produced by a regional non-hydrostatic model. On the other hand, altimeter Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) data, which provide the sea level elevation, are used to improve the accuracy of the initial state of the model simulations. This is done by assimilating into a storm surge model the TWLE obtained by the altimeter observations along ground tracks, after subtraction of the tidal components. In order to test the methodology, eleven storm surge events recorded in Venice, from 2008 to 2012, have been simulated using different configurations of forcing wind and altimeter data assimilation. Results show that the relative error on the estimation of the maximum surge peak, averaged over the cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7% using both the unbiased wind and the altimeter data assimilation, while forcing the hydrodynamic model with the high resolution wind (no tuning), the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%.

Storm Water Management Model (SWMM): Performance Review and Gap Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a widely used tool for urban drainage design and planning. Hundreds of peer-reviewed articles and conference proceedings have been written describing applications of SWMM. This review focused on collecting information on model performanc...

Storm Water Management Model Applications Manual

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model that computes runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. This manual is a practical application guide for new SWMM users who have already had some previous training in hydrolog...

The influence of bed friction variability due to land cover on storm-driven barrier island morphodynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Passeri, Davina L.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, Scott C.

2018-01-01

Variations in bed friction due to land cover type have the potential to influence morphologic change during storm events; the importance of these variations can be studied through numerical simulation and experimentation at locations with sufficient observational data to initialize realistic scenarios, evaluate model accuracy and guide interpretations. Two-dimensional in the horizontal plane (2DH) morphodynamic (XBeach) simulations were conducted to assess morphodynamic sensitivity to spatially varying bed friction at Dauphin Island, AL using hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005) as experimental test cases. For each storm, three bed friction scenarios were simulated: (1) a constant Chezy coefficient across land and water, (2) a constant Chezy coefficient across land and depth-dependent Chezy coefficients across water, and (3) spatially varying Chezy coefficients across land based on land use/land cover (LULC) data and depth-dependent Chezy coefficients across water. Modeled post-storm bed elevations were compared qualitatively and quantitatively with post-storm lidar data. Results showed that implementing spatially varying bed friction influenced the ability of XBeach to accurately simulate morphologic change during both storms. Accounting for frictional effects due to large-scale variations in vegetation and development reduced cross-barrier sediment transport and captured overwash and breaching more accurately. Model output from the spatially varying friction scenarios was used to examine the need for an existing sediment transport limiter, the influence of pre-storm topography and the effects of water level gradients on storm-driven morphodynamics.

Forecast of geomagnetic storms using CME parameters and the WSA-ENLIL model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, Y.; Lee, J.; Jang, S.; Na, H.; Lee, J.

2013-12-01

Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun and their forecast is quite important in protecting space- and ground-based technological systems. The onset and strength of geomagnetic storms depend on the kinematic and magnetic properties of CMEs. Current forecast techniques mostly use solar wind in-situ measurements that provide only a short lead time. On the other hand, techniques using CME observations near the Sun have the potential to provide 1-3 days of lead time before the storm occurs. Therefore, one of the challenging issues is to forecast interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) southward components and hence geomagnetic storm strength with a lead-time on the order of 1-3 days. We are going to answer the following three questions: (1) when does a CME arrive at the Earth? (2) what is the probability that a CME can induce a geomagnetic storm? and (3) how strong is the storm? To address the first question, we forecast the arrival time and other physical parameters of CMEs at the Earth using the WSA-ENLIL model with three CME cone types. The second question is answered by examining the geoeffective and non-geoeffective CMEs depending on CME observations (speed, source location, earthward direction, magnetic field orientation, and cone-model output). The third question is addressed by examining the relationship between CME parameters and geomagnetic indices (or IMF southward component). The forecast method will be developed with a three-stage approach, which will make a prediction within four hours after the solar coronagraph data become available. We expect that this study will enable us to forecast the onset and strength of a geomagnetic storm a few days in advance using only CME parameters and the physics-based models.

A high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014)—Part I: Model verification and surface energetics analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xinghai; Duan, Yihong; Wang, Yuqing; Wei, Na; Hu, Hao

2017-06-01

A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate ( ɛ g), defined as the difference between the energy production ( P D) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation ( D S) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ɛ g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the ɛ g decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the DS increases more rapidly than the P D near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the D S is about 20% larger than the P D near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the P D and D S can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local P D under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the D S, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.

Wet scavenging of soluble gases in DC3 deep convective storms using WRF-Chem simulations and aircraft observations: DEEP CONVECTIVE WET SCAVENGING OF GASES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bela, Megan M.; Barth, Mary C.; Toon, Owen B.

We examine wet scavenging of soluble trace gases in storms observed during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign. We conduct high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) of a severe storm in Oklahoma. The model represents well the storm location, size, and structure as compared with Next Generation Weather Radar reflectivity, and simulated CO transport is consistent with aircraft observations. Scavenging efficiencies (SEs) between inflow and outflow of soluble species are calculated from aircraft measurements and model simulations. Using a simple wet scavenging scheme, we simulate the SE of each soluble speciesmore » within the error bars of the observations. The simulated SEs of all species except nitric acid (HNO3) are highly sensitive to the values specified for the fractions retained in ice when cloud water freezes. To reproduce the observations, we must assume zero ice retention for formaldehyde (CH2O) and hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and complete retention for methyl hydrogen peroxide (CH3OOH) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), likely to compensate for the lack of aqueous chemistry in the model. We then compare scavenging efficiencies among storms that formed in Alabama and northeast Colorado and the Oklahoma storm. Significant differences in SEs are seen among storms and species. More scavenging of HNO3 and less removal of CH3OOH are seen in storms with higher maximum flash rates, an indication of more graupel mass. Graupel is associated with mixed-phase scavenging and lightning production of nitrogen oxides (NOx ), processes that may explain the observed differences in HNO3 and CH3OOH scavenging.« less

Subtropical Dust Storms and Downslope Wind Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

2017-10-01

We performed detailed mesoscale observational analyses and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to study the terrain-induced downslope winds that generated dust-emitting winds at the beginning of three strong subtropical dust storms in three distinctly different regions of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. We revisit the Harmattan dust storm of 2 March 2004, the Saudi dust storm of 9 March 2009, and the Bodélé Depression dust storm of 8 December 2011 and use high-resolution WRF modeling to assess the dynamical processes during the onset of the storms in more depth. Our results highlight the generation of terrain-induced downslope winds in response to the transition of the atmospheric flow from a subcritical to supercritical state in all three cases. These events precede the unbalanced adjustment processes in the lee of the mountain ranges that produced larger-scale dust aerosol mobilization and transport. We see that only the higher-resolution data sets can resolve the mesoscale processes, which are mainly responsible for creating strong low-level terrain-induced downslope winds leading to the initial dust storms.

Motorcycles, Cell Phones, and Electricity Can Dramatically Change the Epidemiology of Infectious Disease in Africa.

PubMed

Lagier, Jean-Christophe; Sokhna, Cheikh; Raoult, Didier

2017-05-01

AbstractSome observations and recent publications demonstrated, particularly in Africa, the potential influence that low-cost motorcycles, cell phones, and even widespread electrification could have on the evolution of infectious diseases, particularly zoonoses. Our reflections support the conclusion that we should focus on the real-time surveillance systems including alerting systems leading to a rapid and flexible response rather than the strongly limited modeling of infectious diseases because of the continuous evolution of microorganisms, as well as changes in the environment and human habits that are unpredictable.

Development of the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide (FAST) Model for hurricane induced storm surges and associated inundation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teng, Y. C.; Kelly, D.; Li, Y.; Zhang, K.

2016-02-01

A new state-of-the-art model (the Fully Adaptive Storm Tide model, FAST) for the prediction of storm surges over complex landscapes is presented. The FAST model is based on the conservation form of the full non-linear depth-averaged long wave equations. The equations are solved via an explicit finite volume scheme with interfacial fluxes being computed via Osher's approximate Riemann solver. Geometric source terms are treated in a high order manner that is well-balanced. The numerical solution technique has been chosen to enable the accurate simulation of wetting and drying over complex topography. Another important feature of the FAST model is the use of a simple underlying Cartesian mesh with tree-based static and dynamic adaptive mesh refinement (AMR). This permits the simulation of unsteady flows over varying landscapes (including localized features such as canals) by locally increasing (or relaxing) grid resolution in a dynamic fashion. The use of (dynamic) AMR lowers the computational cost of the storm surge model whilst retaining high resolution (and thus accuracy) where and when it is required. In additional, the FAST model has been designed to execute in a parallel computational environment with localized time-stepping. The FAST model has already been carefully verified against a series of benchmark type problems (Kelly et al. 2015). Here we present two simulations of the storm tide due to Hurricane Ike(2008) and Hurricane Sandy (2012). The model incorporates high resolution LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City. Results compare favorably with water elevations measured by NOAA tidal gauges, by mobile sensors deployed and high water marks collected by the USGS.

Hurricane Harvey rapid response: observations of infragravity wave dynamics and morphological change during inundation of a barrier island cut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anarde, K.; Figlus, J.; Dellapenna, T. M.; Bedient, P. B.

2017-12-01

Prior to landfall of Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017, instrumentation was deployed on the seaward and landward sides of a barrier island on the central Texas Gulf Coast to collect in-situ hydrodynamic measurements during storm impact. High-resolution devices capable of withstanding extreme conditions included inexpensive pressure transducers and tilt current meters mounted within and atop (respectively) shallow monitoring wells. In order to link measurements of storm hydrodynamics with the morphological evolution of the barrier, pre- and post-storm digital elevation models were generated using a combination of unmanned aerial imagery, LiDAR, and real-time kinematic GPS. Push-cores were collected and analyzed for grain size and sedimentary structure to relate hydrodynamic observations with the local character of storm-generated deposits. Observations show that at Hog Island, located approximately 160 miles northeast of Harvey's landfall location, storm surge inundated an inactive storm channel. Infragravity waves (0.003 - 0.05 Hz) dominated the water motion onshore of the berm crest over a 24-hour period proximate to storm landfall. Over this time, approximately 50 cm of sediment accreted vertically atop the instrument located in the backshore. Storm deposits at this location contained sub-parallel alternating laminae of quartz and heavy mineral-enriched sand. While onshore progression of infragravity waves into the back-barrier was observed over several hours prior to storm landfall, storm deposits in the back-barrier lack the characteristic laminae preserved in the backshore. These field measurements will ultimately be used to constrain and validate numerical modeling schemes that explore morphodynamic conditions of barriers in response to extreme storms (e.g., XBeach, CSHORE). This study provides a unique data set linking extreme storm hydrodynamics with geomorphic changes during a relatively low surge, but highly dissipative wave event.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

Effects of Wildfire Pollution on the Microphysical and Electrical Properties of Pyrocumulus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duff, R.; Grant, L. D.; van den Heever, S. C.

2014-12-01

Pyrocumulus clouds form over wildfires when hot, smoke-filled air rises, cools and condenses. These clouds have higher cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, which affect their microphysical and electrical properties. It is important to better understand pyrocumulus cloud microphysical characteristics and lightning formation, which have implications for the prediction of wildfire growth as well as the radiative and chemical characteristics of the upper troposphere. A recent observational study documented an electrified pyrocumulus over the May 2012 Hewlett Gulch fire located to the west of Fort Collins, Colorado. This cloud produced approximately 20 intracloud lightning flashes, and its electrical activity differed from surrounding convection that was not directly impacted by the fire and associated smoke. The goal of this research is to investigate aerosol-induced cloud-scale microphysical differences between clean clouds and polluted pyrocumulus to better characterize the mechanisms that cause pyrocumulus electrification. In order to address this goal, idealized cloud-resolving model simulations were performed using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The model environment was initialized with an average of the 12Z 16 May and 00Z 17 May 2012 observed Denver soundings to represent the conditions when the Hewlett Gulch pyrocumulus occurred. Five simulations were performed using surface aerosol concentrations from 100 to 5000 #/mg. The results demonstrate that in moderately polluted pyrocumulus, rain processes are suppressed while graupel production increases. Extremely polluted pyrocumulus, however, experience a complete shut-down of graupel production, which favors the production of large amounts of liquid water and smaller ice species such as ice crystals and snowflakes. The processes responsible for these microphysical changes, as well as inferred pyrocumulus electrification mechanisms, will be compared with those discussed in previous observational studies of this case.

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL USER'S MANUAL VERSION 5.0

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrade...

Linking Plasma Conditions in the Magnetosphere with Ionospheric Signatures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rastaetter, Lutz; Kozyra, Janet; Kuznetsova, Maria M.; Berrios, David H.

2012-01-01

Modeling of the full magnetosphere, ring current and ionosphere system has become an indispensable tool in analyzing the series of events that occur during geomagnetic storms. The CCMC has a full model suite available for the magnetosphere, together with visualization tools that allow a user to perform a large variety of analyses. The January, 21, 2005 storm was a moderate-size storm that has been found to feature a large penetration electric field and unusually large polar caps (low-latitude precipitation patterns) that are otherwise found in super storms. Based on simulations runs at CCMC we can outline the likely causes of this behavior. Using visualization tools available to the online user we compare results from different magnetosphere models and present connections found between features in the magnetosphere and the ionosphere that are connected magnetically. The range of magnetic mappings found with different models can be compared with statistical models (Tsyganenko) and the model's fidelity can be verified with observations from low earth orbiting satellites such as DMSP and TIMED.

Model study of greenline dayglow emission under geomagnetic storm conditions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, V.; Bag, T.; Sunil Krishna, M. V.

2016-12-01

A comprehensive model is developed to study the influences of geomagnetic storms on greenline (557.7 nm) dayglow emission during the solar active and solar quiet conditions in thermosphere. This study is based on a photochemical model which is developed using the latest reaction rate coefficients, quantum yields and collisional cross-sections obtained from the experimental observations and empirical models. This study is for a low latitude station Tirunelveli (8.7N,77.8E), India. The volume emission rate (VER) has been calculated using the densities and temperature from NRLMSISE-00 and IRI-2012 models. The modeled VER shows a positive correlation with the Dst index, and a negative correlation with the number densities of O, O2, and N2. The VER calculated at the peak emission altitude shows depletion during the main phase of the storm. The peak emission altitude doesn't show any appreciable variation during storm period. On the other hand, the peak emission altitude shows an upward movement with the increase in F10.7 solar index.

Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115 forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains.

PubMed

Csilléry, Katalin; Kunstler, Georges; Courbaud, Benoît; Allard, Denis; Lassègues, Pierre; Haslinger, Klaus; Gardiner, Barry

2017-12-01

Damage due to wind-storms and droughts is increasing in many temperate forests, yet little is known about the long-term roles of these key climatic factors in forest dynamics and in the carbon budget. The objective of this study was to estimate individual and coupled effects of droughts and wind-storms on adult tree mortality across a 31-year period in 115 managed, mixed coniferous forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains. For each stand, yearly mortality was inferred from management records, yearly drought from interpolated fields of monthly temperature, precipitation and soil water holding capacity, and wind-storms from interpolated fields of daily maximum wind speed. We performed a thorough model selection based on a leave-one-out cross-validation of the time series. We compared different critical wind speeds (CWSs) for damage, wind-storm, and stand variables and statistical models. We found that a model including stand characteristics, drought, and storm strength using a CWS of 25 ms -1 performed the best across most stands. Using this best model, we found that drought increased damage risk only in the most southerly forests, and its effect is generally maintained for up to 2 years. Storm strength increased damage risk in all forests in a relatively uniform way. In some stands, we found positive interaction between drought and storm strength most likely because drought weakens trees, and they became more prone to stem breakage under wind-loading. In other stands, we found negative interaction between drought and storm strength, where excessive rain likely leads to soil water saturation making trees more susceptible to overturning in a wind-storm. Our results stress that temporal data are essential to make valid inferences about ecological impacts of disturbance events, and that making inferences about disturbance agents separately can be of limited validity. Under projected future climatic conditions, the direction and strength of these ecological interactions could also change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Superstorms at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e)? Modeling paleo waves and the transport of giant boulders.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rovere, Alessio; Harris, Daniel; Casella, Elisa; Lorscheid, Thomas; Stocchi, Paolo; Nandasena, Napayalage; Sandstrom, Michael; D'Andrea, William; Dyer, Blake; Raymo, Maureen

2017-04-01

We present the results of high-resolution field surveys and wave models along the cliffs of the northern part of the Island of Eleuthera, Bahamas. Previous studies have proposed that cliff top mega-boulders were emplaced at the end of the Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128-116 ka) by giant swells caused by super-storms that find no counterpart in the Holocene (including historical times). Our results suggest that these boulders could have instead been transported from the cliff face to the top of the cliff by a storm analogous to the 1991 'Perfect Storm', if sea level during MIS 5e sea was more than 4 meters higher than today. We remark that the data-model approach used here is essential to interpreting the geologic evidence of extreme storms during past warm periods, which in turn, is an important tool for predicting the intensity of extreme storm events in future climates. Our results indicate that even without an increase in storm intensity, cliffs and hard coastal barriers might be subject to significant increases wave-generated stresses under conditions of sea levels modestly higher than present.

Observing storm surges from space: Hurricane Igor off Newfoundland

PubMed Central

Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Dake; deYoung, Brad; Chen, Nancy

2012-01-01

Coastal communities are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to storm surges under a changing climate. Tide gauges can be used to monitor alongshore variations of a storm surge, but not cross-shelf features. In this study we combine Jason-2 satellite measurements with tide-gauge data to study the storm surge caused by Hurricane Igor off Newfoundland. Satellite observations reveal a storm surge of 1 m in the early morning of September 22, 2010 (UTC) after the passage of the storm, consistent with the tide-gauge measurements. The post-storm sea level variations at St. John's and Argentia are associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with a phase speed of ~10 m/s and a cross-shelf decaying scale of ~100 km). The study clearly shows the utility of satellite altimetry in observing and understanding storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models. PMID:23259048

Quantification of the Precipitation Loss of Radiation Belt Electrons Observed by SAMPEX

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tu, W.; Selesnick, R. S.; Li, X.; Looper, M. D.

2009-12-01

Based on SAMPEX/PET observations, the rates and the spatial and temporal variations of electron loss to the atmosphere in the Earth’s radiation belt were quantified using a Drift-Diffusion model that includes the effects of azimuthal drifts and pitch angle diffusion. The measured electrons detected by SAMPEX can be distinguished as trapped, quasi-trapped (in the drift loss cone), and precipitating (in the bounce loss cone). The Drift-Diffusion model simulates the low-altitude electron distribution from SAMPEX. After fitting the model results to the data, the magnitudes and variations of the electron lifetime can be quantitatively determined based on the optimum model parameter values. Three magnetic storms of different types of magnitude were selected to estimate the various loss rates of ~0.5 to 3 MeV electrons during different phases of the storm and at L shells ranging from L=3.5 to L=6.5 (L represents the radial distance in the equatorial plane under a dipole field approximation). They are a small storm and a moderate storm in the current solar minimum and an intense storm right after the previous solar maximum. Model results for the three individual events showed that fast precipitation losses of energetic radiation belt electrons, as short as hours, persistently occurred in the storm main phases and with more efficient loss at higher energies, over wide range of L regions and over all the SAMPEX covered local times. In addition to this newly discovered common feature of the main phase electron lifetimes for all the storm events and at all L locations, some other properties of the electron loss rates that vary with time or locations, were also estimated and discussed. This method combining model with the low-altitude observations provides direct quantification of the electron loss rate, a prerequisite for any comprehensive modeling of the radiation belt electron dynamics.

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick; Maarten van Ormondt,; Erikson, Li H.; Jodi Eshleman,; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Peter Ruggiero,; Peter Adams,; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2014-01-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf

PubMed Central

Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

2014-01-01

Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5–6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast. PMID:25821268

Strong convective storm nowcasting using a hybrid approach of convolutional neural network and hidden Markov model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Jiang, Ling; Han, Lei

2018-04-01

Convective storm nowcasting refers to the prediction of the convective weather initiation, development, and decay in a very short term (typically 0 2 h) .Despite marked progress over the past years, severe convective storm nowcasting still remains a challenge. With the boom of machine learning, it has been well applied in various fields, especially convolutional neural network (CNN). In this paper, we build a servere convective weather nowcasting system based on CNN and hidden Markov model (HMM) using reanalysis meteorological data. The goal of convective storm nowcasting is to predict if there is a convective storm in 30min. In this paper, we compress the VDRAS reanalysis data to low-dimensional data by CNN as the observation vector of HMM, then obtain the development trend of strong convective weather in the form of time series. It shows that, our method can extract robust features without any artificial selection of features, and can capture the development trend of strong convective storm.

USEPA’s Future Role for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a heavily used model to simulate stormwater and wastewater infrastructure performance as an enhanced decision making tool. SWMM I was released in 1971 by the Metcalf and Eddy, Water Resources Engineers, and the University of Florida...

USEPA’s Future Role for the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

EPA Science Inventory

USEPA’s Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a heavily used model to simulate stormwater and wastewater infrastructure performance as an enhanced decision making tool. SWMM I was released in 1971 by the Metcalf and Eddy, Water Resources Engineers, and the University of F...

Nocturnal Propagating Thunderstorms May Favor Urban "Hot-Spots": A Model-Based Study over Minneapolis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganeshan, Manisha; Murtugudde, Raghu

2015-01-01

High-resolution WRF model sensitivity experiments are carried out (with and without urban land cover) to study urban impacts on nocturnal propagating thunderstorms over the city of Minneapolis. It is found that the storm spatial characteristics, especially the position of the storm cell, are appreciably altered by the presence of urban land cover. The most robust urban instability during stormy conditions is the enhanced surface convergence due to increased frictional drag. No urban impact is visible on the rainfall intensity simulated by the model. The frictional convergence, aided by the nocturnal Urban Heat Island (UHI), appears to be responsible for attracting propagating storms towards the urban center. Advanced modeling experiments are needed to quantify the mechanical and thermal influence along with similar studies in other cities to further investigate the urban impact on the frequency and trajectory of nocturnal propagating storms.

Using wind setdown and storm surge on Lake Erie to calibrate the air-sea drag coefficient.

PubMed

Drews, Carl

2013-01-01

The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1.

Skill assessment of a real-time forecast system utilizing a coupled hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic model during Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dresback, Kendra M.; Fleming, Jason G.; Blanton, Brian O.; Kaiser, Carola; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Tromble, Evan M.; Luettich, Richard A.; Kolar, Randall L.; Hong, Yang; Van Cooten, Suzanne; Vergara, Humberto J.; Flamig, Zac L.; Lander, Howard M.; Kelleher, Kevin E.; Nemunaitis-Monroe, Kodi L.

2013-12-01

Due to the devastating effects of recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico (e.g., Katrina, Rita, Ike and Gustav), the development of a high-resolution, real-time, total water level prototype system has been accelerated. The fully coupled model system that includes hydrology is an extension of the ADCIRC Surge Guidance System (ASGS), and will henceforth be referred to as ASGS-STORM (Scalable, Terrestrial, Ocean, River, Meteorological) to emphasize the major processes that are represented by the system.The ASGS-STORM system incorporates tides, waves, winds, rivers and surge to produce a total water level, which provides a holistic representation of coastal flooding. ASGS-STORM was rigorously tested during Hurricane Irene, which made landfall in late August 2011 in North Carolina. All results from ASGS-STORM for the advisories were produced in real-time, forced by forecast wind and pressure fields computed using a parametric tropical cyclone model, and made available via the web. Herein, a skill assessment, analyzing wind speed and direction, significant wave heights, and total water levels, is used to evaluate ASGS-STORM's performance during Irene for three advisories and the best track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). ASGS-STORM showed slight over-prediction for two advisories (Advisory 23 and 25) due to the over-estimation of the storm intensity. However, ASGS-STORM shows notable skill in capturing total water levels, wind speed and direction, and significant wave heights in North Carolina when utilizing Advisory 28, which had a slight shift in the track but provided a more accurate estimation of the storm intensity, along with the best track from the NHC. Results from ASGS-STORM have shown that as the forecast of the advisories improves, so does the accuracy of the models used in the study; therefore, accurate input from the weather forecast is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to ensure the accuracy of the guidance provided by the system. While Irene provided a real-time test of the viability of a total water level system, the relatively insignificant freshwater discharges precludes definitive conclusions about the role of freshwater discharges on total water levels in estuarine zones. Now that the system has been developed, on-going work will examine storms (e.g., Floyd) for which the freshwater discharge played a more meaningful role.

GenCade Version 1 Model Theory and User’s Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

summer, severe waves associated with extratropical storms frequent during winter and spring, and severe waves associated with tropical storms during...that the majority of waves are from the southeast and the more severe waves associated with extratropical storms are from the east- southeast. This...decades to centuries. However, these tools should also resolve processes that occur at the scale of individual storms and tidal cycles to calculate

Guidelines for Calibration and Application of Storm.

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-12-01

combination method uses the SCS method on pervious areas and the coefficient method on impervious areas of the watershed. Storm water quality is computed...stations, it should be accomplished according to procedures outlined In Reference 7. Adequate storm water quality data are the most difficult and costly...mass discharge of pollutants is negligible. The state-of-the-art in urban storm water quality modeling precludes highly accurate simulation of

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

DMSP observations of high latitude Poynting flux during magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Cheryl Y.; Huang, Yanshi; Su, Yi-Jiun; Hairston, Marc R.; Sotirelis, Thomas

2017-11-01

Previous studies have demonstrated that energy can enter the high-latitude regions of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere (IT) system on open field lines. To assess the extent of high-latitude energy input, we have carried out a study of Poynting flux measured by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites during magnetic storms. We report sporadic intense Poynting fluxes measured by four DMSP satellites at polar latitudes during two moderate magnetic storms which occurred in August and September 2011. Comparisons with a widely used empirical model for energy input to the IT system show that the model does not adequately capture electromagnetic (EM) energy at very high latitudes during storms. We have extended this study to include more than 30 storm events and find that intense EM energy is frequently detected poleward of 75° magnetic latitude.

Animal model of respiratory syncytial virus: CD8+ T cells cause a cytokine storm that is chemically tractable by sphingosine-1-phosphate 1 receptor agonist therapy.

PubMed

Walsh, Kevin B; Teijaro, John R; Brock, Linda G; Fremgen, Daniel M; Collins, Peter L; Rosen, Hugh; Oldstone, Michael B A

2014-06-01

The cytokine storm is an intensified, dysregulated, tissue-injurious inflammatory response driven by cytokine and immune cell components. The cytokine storm during influenza virus infection, whereby the amplified innate immune response is primarily responsible for pulmonary damage, has been well characterized. Now we describe a novel event where virus-specific T cells induce a cytokine storm. The paramyxovirus pneumonia virus of mice (PVM) is a model of human respiratory syncytial virus (hRSV). Unexpectedly, when C57BL/6 mice were infected with PVM, the innate inflammatory response was undetectable until day 5 postinfection, at which time CD8(+) T cells infiltrated into the lung, initiating a cytokine storm by their production of gamma interferon (IFN-γ) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α). Administration of an immunomodulatory sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) receptor 1 (S1P1R) agonist significantly inhibited PVM-elicited cytokine storm by blunting the PVM-specific CD8(+) T cell response, resulting in diminished pulmonary disease and enhanced survival. A dysregulated overly exuberant immune response, termed a "cytokine storm," accompanies virus-induced acute respiratory diseases (VARV), is primarily responsible for the accompanying high morbidity and mortality, and can be controlled therapeutically in influenza virus infection of mice and ferrets by administration of sphingosine-1-phosphate 1 receptor (S1P1R) agonists. Here, two novel findings are recorded. First, in contrast to influenza infection, where the cytokine storm is initiated early by the innate immune system, for pneumonia virus of mice (PVM), a model of RSV, the cytokine storm is initiated late in infection by the adaptive immune response: specifically, by virus-specific CD8 T cells via their release of IFN-γ and TNF-α. Blockading these cytokines with neutralizing antibodies blunts the cytokine storm and protects the host. Second, PVM infection is controlled by administration of an S1P1R agonist.

Meteorological aspects associated with dust storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Rashki, A.; Houssos, E. E.; Mofidi, A.; Goto, D.; Bartzokas, A.; Francois, P.; Legrand, M.

2015-07-01

Dust storms are considered natural hazards that seriously affect atmospheric conditions, ecosystems and human health. A key requirement for investigating the dust life cycle is the analysis of the meteorological (synoptic and dynamic) processes that control dust emission, uplift and transport. The present work focuses on examining the synoptic and dynamic meteorological conditions associated with dust-storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran during the summer season (June-September) of the years 2001-2012. The dust-storm days (total number of 356) are related to visibility records below 1 km at Zabol meteorological station, located near to the dust source. RegCM4 model simulations indicate that the intense northern Levar wind, the high surface heating and the valley-like characteristics of the region strongly affect the meteorological dynamics and the formation of a low-level jet that are strongly linked with dust exposures. The intra-annual evolution of the dust storms does not seem to be significantly associated with El-Nino Southern Oscillation, despite the fact that most of the dust-storms are related to positive values of Oceanic Nino Index. National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis suggests that the dust storms are associated with low sea-level pressure conditions over the whole south Asia, while at 700 hPa level a trough of low geopotential heights over India along with a ridge over Arabia and central Iran is the common scenario. A significant finding is that the dust storms over Sistan are found to be associated with a pronounced increase of the anticyclone over the Caspian Sea, enhancing the west-to-east pressure gradient and, therefore, the blowing of Levar. Infrared Difference Dust Index values highlight the intensity of the Sistan dust storms, while the SPRINTARS model simulates the dust loading and concentration reasonably well, since the dust storms are usually associated with peaks in model simulations.

Storm Surge Simulation and Ensemble Forecast for Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Irene, raking the U.S. East Coast during the period of 26-30 August 2011, caused widespread damage estimated at $15.8 billion and was responsible for 49 direct deaths (Avila and Cangialosi, 2011). Although the most severe impact in the northeastern U.S. was catastrophic inland flooding, with its unusually large size, Irene also generated high waves and storm surges and caused moderate to major coastal flooding. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina (NC). Significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay, and moderate and high surges were observed along the coast from New Jersey (NJ) northward. A storm surge of 0.9-1.8 m caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City (NYC) and Long Island, despite the fact that the storm made landfall to the west of NYC with peak winds of no more than tropical storm strength. Making three U.S. landfalls (in NC, NJ, and NY), Hurricane Irene provides a unique case for studying storm surge along the eastern U.S. coastline. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Luettich et al. 1992) to conduct surge simulations for Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay, and NYC, using best track data and parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal-gauge observations. Then we explore a new methodology for storm surge ensemble forecasting and apply it to Irene. This method applies a statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to generate large numbers of storm ensembles under the storm environment described by the 51 ECMWF ensemble members. The associated surge ensembles are then generated with the ADCIRC model. The numerical simulation is computationally efficient, making the method applicable to real-time storm surge ensemble forecasting. We report the results for NYC in this presentation. The ADCIRC simulation using the best track data generates a storm surge of 1.3 m and a storm tide of 2.1 m at the Battery, NYC, which agree well with the observed storm surge of 1.33 m and storm tide of 2.12 m, although the simulated surge arrives about 2 hours earlier than the observed. Based on the surge climatology estimated by Lin et al. (2012), Hurricane Irene's storm surge is approximately a 60-year event for NYC, but its storm tide, with the surge happening right at the high astronomical tide, is a 100-year event. Lin et al. (2012) also projected that such 100-year storm tide events might occur on average every 3-20 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise. The ensemble forecasting, starting from two and one days (each with 1000 ensembles) before Irene's first landfall in NC, shows that Irene's actual storm surge at the Battery had a chance of about 9% and 10% to be exceeded, respectively. The largest surges among the two ensemble sets are 2.28 m and 2.05 m, respectively. If happening at the high tide, as with Hurricane Irene, the worst-case storm tides would be about 3-3.2 m, similar to the highest historical water level at the Battery due to a hurricane in 1821. Lin et al. (2012) estimated that such a storm tide of about 3.1 m had a return period of about 500 years under current climate conditions, but the return period might become 25-240 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise.

Voltage-dependent cluster expansion for electrified solid-liquid interfaces: Application to the electrochemical deposition of transition metals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weitzner, Stephen E.; Dabo, Ismaila

2017-11-01

The detailed atomistic modeling of electrochemically deposited metal monolayers is challenging due to the complex structure of the metal-solution interface and the critical effects of surface electrification during electrode polarization. Accurate models of interfacial electrochemical equilibria are further challenged by the need to include entropic effects to obtain accurate surface chemical potentials. We present an embedded quantum-continuum model of the interfacial environment that addresses each of these challenges and study the underpotential deposition of silver on the gold (100) surface. We leverage these results to parametrize a cluster expansion of the electrified interface and show through grand canonical Monte Carlo calculations the crucial need to account for variations in the interfacial dipole when modeling electrodeposited metals under finite-temperature electrochemical conditions.

Storm Identification and Tracking for Hydrologic Modeling Using Hourly Accumulated NEXRAD Precipitation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olivera, F.; Choi, J.; Socolofsky, S.

2006-12-01

Watershed responses to storm events are strongly affected by the spatial and temporal patterns of rainfall; that is, the spatial distribution of the precipitation intensity and its evolution over time. Although real storms are moving entities with non-uniform intensities in both space and time, hydrological applications often synthesize these attributes by assuming storms that are uniformly distributed and have variable intensity according to a pre-defined hyetograph shape. As one considers watersheds of greater size, the non-uniformity of rainfall becomes more important, because a storm may not cover the watershed's entire area and may not stay in the watershed for its full duration. In order to incorporate parameters such as storm area, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution in the definition of synthetic storms, it is necessary to determine these storm characteristics from spatially distributed precipitation data. To date, most algorithms for identifying and tracking storms have been applied to short time-step radar reflectivity data (i.e., 15 minutes or less), where storm features are captured in an effectively synoptic manner. For the entire United States, however, the most reliable distributed precipitation data are the one-hour accumulated 4 km × 4 km gridded NEXRAD data of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) (NWS 2005. The one-hour aggregation level of the data, though, makes it more difficult to identify and track storms than when using sequences of synoptic radar reflectivity data, because storms can traverse over a number of NEXRAD cells and change size and shape appreciably between consecutive data maps. In this paper, we present a methodology to overcome the identification and tracking difficulties and to extract the characteristics of moving storms (e.g. size, propagation velocity and direction, and intensity distribution) from one-hour accumulated distributed rainfall data. The algorithm uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) for storm identification and image processing for storm tracking. The method has been successfully applied to Brazos County in Texas using the 2003 Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) NEXRAD rainfall data.

Probabilistic Design Storm Method for Improved Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berk, Mario; Å pačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-12-01

The design storm approach with event-based rainfall-runoff models is a standard method for design flood estimation in ungauged catchments. The approach is conceptually simple and computationally inexpensive, but the underlying assumptions can lead to flawed design flood estimations. In particular, the implied average recurrence interval (ARI) neutrality between rainfall and runoff neglects uncertainty in other important parameters, leading to an underestimation of design floods. The selection of a single representative critical rainfall duration in the analysis leads to an additional underestimation of design floods. One way to overcome these nonconservative approximations is the use of a continuous rainfall-runoff model, which is associated with significant computational cost and requires rainfall input data that are often not readily available. As an alternative, we propose a novel Probabilistic Design Storm method that combines event-based flood modeling with basic probabilistic models and concepts from reliability analysis, in particular the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM). The proposed methodology overcomes the limitations of the standard design storm approach, while utilizing the same input information and models without excessive computational effort. Additionally, the Probabilistic Design Storm method allows deriving so-called design charts, which summarize representative design storm events (combinations of rainfall intensity and other relevant parameters) for floods with different return periods. These can be used to study the relationship between rainfall and runoff return periods. We demonstrate, investigate, and validate the method by means of an example catchment located in the Bavarian Pre-Alps, in combination with a simple hydrological model commonly used in practice.

Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

2011-01-01

Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

Long-term variability of dust optical depths on Mars during MY24-MY32 and their impact on subtropical lower ionosphere: Climatology, modeling, and observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheel, Varun; Haider, S. A.

2016-08-01

Dust optical depths (τ) for nine Martian years (MY24-MY32) in the subtropical region (25-35°S) have been used to classify distinct dust scenarios. These data are based on observations at 9.3 µm from the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey missions and encompass the regional dust storms which occur every year around solar longitude (Ls) ~ 220° and the two major dust storms of MY25 and MY28. Constrained by these observations and the Mars Climate Sounder observations of detached dust layers, we estimate altitude profiles of dust concentrations. We discuss the characteristics of dust aerosol particles of different size between 0.2 and 3.0 µm by assuming a modified gamma distribution. We then use a comprehensive ion-dust model to calculate ion densities and conductivities in the lower ionosphere of Mars in the absence of dust storm at τ = 0.1 and Ls = 150° and for three dust storm periods viz., (1) major dust storm at τ = 1.7 and Ls = 210°, (2) major dust storm at τ = 1.2 and Ls = 280°, and (3) regional dust storm at τ = 0.5 and Ls = 220°. The model with 12 neutral species considers galactic cosmic rays as a source of ionization. Results show that the density of the dominant hydrated cluster ions and the electrical conductivity are reduced by an order of magnitude near the surface for a few months until the dust storm settles down to its normal condition.

Simplified methods for real-time prediction of storm surge uncertainty: The city of Venice case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, Riccardo; Viero, Daniele Pietro; Carniello, Luca; Defina, Andrea; D'Alpaos, Luigi

2014-09-01

Providing reliable and accurate storm surge forecasts is important for a wide range of problems related to coastal environments. In order to adequately support decision-making processes, it also become increasingly important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with the storm surge forecast. The procedure commonly adopted to do this uses the results of a hydrodynamic model forced by a set of different meteorological forecasts; however, this approach requires a considerable, if not prohibitive, computational cost for real-time application. In the present paper we present two simplified methods for estimating the uncertainty affecting storm surge prediction with moderate computational effort. In the first approach we use a computationally fast, statistical tidal model instead of a hydrodynamic numerical model to estimate storm surge uncertainty. The second approach is based on the observation that the uncertainty in the sea level forecast mainly stems from the uncertainty affecting the meteorological fields; this has led to the idea to estimate forecast uncertainty via a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances, directly extracted from the meteorological fields. The proposed methods were applied to estimate the uncertainty in the storm surge forecast in the Venice Lagoon. The results clearly show that the uncertainty estimated through a linear combination of suitable meteorological variances nicely matches the one obtained using the deterministic approach and overcomes some intrinsic limitations in the use of a statistical tidal model.

Sustainability Challenge of Micro Hydro Power Development in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Didik, H.; Bambang, P. N.; Asep, S.; Purwanto, Y. A.

2018-05-01

Rural electrification using renewable energy is the best choice for many locations that far away from national grid. Many renewable energy project have been built for rural electrification such as micro hydro power plant (MHPP) and solar photovoltaic (SPV). Sustainability still the main challenge of off-grid renewable energy development for off-grid rural electrification in Indonesia. The objective of this paper is to review sustainability of micro hydro power development in Indonesia. The research method was done by field observation, interview with MHPP management, and reviewing some research about MHPP in Indonesia. Sustainability issues include various aspects that can be classified into 5 dimensions: technical, economic, socio-cultural, institutional, and environmental. In technical factors that lead to sustainability problem are: improper MHPP design and construction, improper operation and maintenance, availability of spare parts and expertise. In the economic dimension are generally related to: low electricity tariff and utilization of MHPP for productive use. In the social dimension are: the growth of consumer’s load exceeding the capacity, reduced number of consumers, lack of external institutional support. In the institutional side, it is generally related to the ability of human resources in managing, operating and maintaining of MHPP. Environmental factors that lead the sustainability problems of MHPP are: scarcity of water discharge, conflict of water resources, land conversion over the watershed, and natural disasters.

All Electric Passenger Vehicle Sales in India by 2030: Value proposition to Electric Utilities, Government, and Vehicle Owners

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abhyankar, Nikit; Gopal, Anand R.; Sheppard, Colin

In India, there is growing interest among policymakers, planners, and regulators for aggressive electrification of passenger vehicles. For example, Piyush Goyal, the Minister of State for India’s Ministry of Coal, Power, New and Renewable Energy, announced an aspirational goal of converting all vehicle sales in India to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 (Economic Times, 2016). In 2012, India has already announced the National Mission on Electric Mobility (NMEM) sets a countrywide goal of deploying 6 to 7 million hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) by 2020 (DHI, 2012). A major policy motivation for transport electrification is to reduce India’s oilmore » import dependency. The objective of this paper is to assess the effect of full electrification of vehicle sales in India by 2030 on the key stakeholders such as BEV owners, electric utilities, and the government. Specifically, we attempt to answer the following questions: (a) How does the total vehicle ownership cost of BEVs compare with the conventional vehicles? (b) What is the additional load due BEV charging? (c) What is the impact on the power sector investments, costs, and utility revenue? (d) How can smart BEV charging help renewable energy grid integration? (e) What is the impact on the crude oil imports? (f) What is the impact on the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions?« less

Techniques for estimating the quantity and quality of storm runoff from urban watersheds of Jefferson County, Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evaldi, R.D.; Moore, B.L.

1994-01-01

Linear regression models are presented for estimating storm-runoff volumes, and mean con- centrations and loads of selected constituents in storm runoff from urban watersheds of Jefferson County, Kentucky. Constituents modeled include dissolved oxygen, biochemical and chemical oxygen demand, total and suspended solids, volatile residue, nitrogen, phosphorus and phosphate, calcium, magnesium, barium, copper, iron, lead, and zinc. Model estimations are a function of drainage area, percentage of impervious area, climatological data, and land uses. Estimation models are based on runoff volumes, and concen- trations and loads of constituents in runoff measured at 6 stormwater outfalls and 25 streams in Jefferson County.

Inferring Polar Ion Outflows from Topside Ionograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, J. J.; Rice, D. D.; Eccles, V.; Schunk, R. W.; David, M.; Benson, R. F.; James, H. G.

2017-12-01

The high-latitude topside ionosphere is dominated by O+ ions from the F-region peak around 300 km to over 1000 km altitude. The O+ profile shape provides information on the thermal structure, field aligned plasma dynamics, and outflows into the magnetosphere. Topside electron density profiles (EDP) are either obtained from topside sounders or Incoherent Scatter Radars. There is a large archive of topside sounder ionograms and hand scaled EDPs from the Alouette and ISIS satellites between 1962 and 1990. Recent NASA data enhancement efforts have augmented these EDP archives by producing digital topside ionograms both from the 7-track analog telemetry tapes and from 35 mm topside film ionograms. Rice et al [2017] in their 35 mm ionogram recovery emphasized high latitude ionograms taken during disturbed conditions. The figure below contrasts ISIS-II EDPs extracted from 35 mm films before and during a major storm (Dst -200nT) on 9 April 1972 (left panel: quiet period before the storm; right panel: during the peak of the storm). Both satellite passes used for these EDPs were centered on the Resolute Bay location that in 1972 was close to the magnetic pole. They begin at auroral latitudes around 2100 MLT and end on the dayside around 0900MLT. We will present results of how ionospheric models replicate both the quiet and disturbed conditions shown in the figure. Three types of models will be contrasted: an empirical ionosphere (IRI), a physics based ionospheric model (TDIM), and a fluid-based polar-wind model (PW). During the storm pass, when it is expected that substantial heating is present, the ISIS-II topside EDPs provide severe constraints on the usage of these models. These constraints enable estimates of the outflow fluxes as well as the heating that has occurred. The comparisons with the empirical model establish how well the pre-storm topside is modeled and identifies the challenges as the storm magnitude increases. The physics-based TDIM does have storm drivers but is limited in how the 800 km topside boundary is set. In contrast, the polar wind model extends out to many Earth radii and, hence, physically handles ionospheric heating and ion outflows during storms. These topside EDP data will provide a means to establish the sensitivity of various ionospheric heating mechanisms that drive the ion outflow.

Modelling derecho dynamics and the direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke upon it with NWP model HARMONIE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toll, Velle; Männik, Aarne

2014-05-01

Convection permitting numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE was used to simulate the dynamics of the derecho that swept over Eastern Europe on August 8, 2010. The storm moved over Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland and the strongest wind gusts (up to 36.5 m/s) were measured in Estonia. The storm path is recorded on the radar images where characteristic bow echo was observed. The model setup was similar to near-future operational, nearly kilometre-scale environments in European national weather services. Hindcast experiments show the ability of the HARMONIE model to predict the severe convective storm and forecast concurrent strong wind gusts. Wind gusts with very similar intensity to observed ones were simulated by the HARMONIE model and 2.5-km horizontal resolution appears sufficient for reliable forecast of the derecho event. The timing of the modelled storm was in good agreement with the observations. The simulated average storm propagation speed was 25 m/s, similar to the radar observations. Hindcast experiments suggest that more precise warning for the storm could have been issued if the HARMONIE model would have been utilised. The derecho event was accompanied by the remarkable smoke aerosol concentrations (maximum total aerosol optical depth more than 4 at 550 nm) originating from the wildfires from Russia. Smoke plume travelled clockwise around Moscow from August 5 to 9. On August 8, 2010, smoke plume was situated on the Eastern border of Estonia. The derecho occurred on the western side of the smoke plume path. HARMONIE experiments were performed to study the direct radiative effect of wildfire smoke on a severe convective storm. The impact of smoke aerosol on the derecho dynamics was investigated. Reduction in the shortwave radiation flux at the surface resulting from aerosol influence simulated by the HARMONIE model is up to 200 W/m2 in the area with the highest aerosol concentrations. This causes near surface cooling of up to 3 ºC. The direct radiative effect of aerosol increases the stability of the atmospheric boundary layer and this had influence on the simulated derecho dynamics.

Using IRI and GSM TIP model results as environment for HF radio wave propagation model during the geomagnetic storm occurred on September 26-29, 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotova, D. S.; Klimenko, M. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Zakharov, V. E.; Ratovsky, K. G.; Nosikov, I. A.; Zhao, B.

2015-11-01

This paper analyses the geomagnetic storm on September 26-29, 2011. We compare the calculation results obtained using the Global Self-consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) and IRI-2012 (Bilitza et al., 2014) model with ground-based ionosonde data of stations at different latitudes and longitudes. We examined physical mechanisms responsible for the formation of ionospheric effects during the main phase of geomagnetic storm that occurred at the rising phase of the 24th solar cycle. We used numerical results obtained from IRI-2012 and GSM TIP models as propagation environment for HF signals from an equatorial transmitter during quiet and disturbed conditions. We used the model of HF radio wave propagation developed in I. Kant Baltic Federal University (BFU) that is based on the geometrical optics approximation. We compared the obtained radio paths in quiet conditions and during the main and recovery storm phases and evaluated radio wave attenuation in different media models.

Modeling of the Radiation Belt Dynamics During the Two Largest Geomagnetic Storms of Solar Cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Y.; Rastaetter, L.; Kuznetsova, M. M.

2016-12-01

In this paper, radiation belt response to the two largest geomagnetic storms of Solar Cycle 24 (17 March 2015 and the 22 June 2015) is investigated in detail. Even though both storms are primarily CME driven, each has its own complexities [Liu et al., 2015, Kataoka et al., 2015]. Using the CCMC's run-on-request system, modeling results using the RBE (Radiation Belt Environment) model within the SWMF (Space Weather Modeling Framework) and the RBE model coupled with the SWMF and RCM (Rice Convection Model, which takes the ring current's contribution into consideration) will be examined. Comparative and comprehensive analyses of the same event from two different models and of two events from the same model/model suite will be provided. Focus will be specially given to impacts of different solar wind drivers on radiation belt dynamics and to the coupling and interactions of different plasma populations/physical processes within the region. Liu, Ying D., H. Hu, R. Wang, Z. Yang, B., Zhu, Y. A., Liu, J. G. Luhmann, J. D. Richardson (2015), Plasma and Magnetic Field Characteristics of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections in Relation to Geomagnetic Storm Intensity and Variability, The Astrophysical Journal Letters, Volume 809, Issue 2, article id. L34, 6 pp. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/809/2/L34. Kataoka, R., D. Shiota, E. Kilpua, and K. Keika (2015), Pileup accident hypothesis of magnetic storm on 17 March 2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 5155-5161, doi:10.1002/2015GL064816.

CEDAR-GEM Challenge for Systematic Assessment of Ionosphere/Thermosphere Models in Predicting TEC During the 2006 December Storm Event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shim, J. S.; Rastätter, L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Bilitza, D.; Codrescu, M.; Coster, A. J.; Emery, B. A.; Fedrizzi, M.; Förster, M.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.; Gardner, L. C.; Goncharenko, L.; Huba, J.; McDonald, S. E.; Mannucci, A. J.; Namgaladze, A. A.; Pi, X.; Prokhorov, B. E.; Ridley, A. J.; Scherliess, L.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

2017-10-01

In order to assess current modeling capability of reproducing storm impacts on total electron content (TEC), we considered quantities such as TEC, TEC changes compared to quiet time values, and the maximum value of the TEC and TEC changes during a storm. We compared the quantities obtained from ionospheric models against ground-based GPS TEC measurements during the 2006 AGU storm event (14-15 December 2006) in the selected eight longitude sectors. We used 15 simulations obtained from eight ionospheric models, including empirical, physics-based, coupled ionosphere-thermosphere, and data assimilation models. To quantitatively evaluate performance of the models in TEC prediction during the storm, we calculated skill scores such as RMS error, Normalized RMS error (NRMSE), ratio of the modeled to observed maximum increase (Yield), and the difference between the modeled peak time and observed peak time. Furthermore, to investigate latitudinal dependence of the performance of the models, the skill scores were calculated for five latitude regions. Our study shows that RMSE of TEC and TEC changes of the model simulations range from about 3 TECU (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2) (in high latitudes) to about 13 TECU (in low latitudes), which is larger than latitudinal average GPS TEC error of about 2 TECU. Most model simulations predict TEC better than TEC changes in terms of NRMSE and the difference in peak time, while the opposite holds true in terms of Yield. Model performance strongly depends on the quantities considered, the type of metrics used, and the latitude considered.

Numerical Study of Solar Storms from the Sun to Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xueshang; Jiang, Chaowei; Zhou, Yufen

2017-04-01

As solar storms are sweeping the Earth, adverse changes occur in geospace environment. How human can mitigate and avoid destructive damages caused by solar storms becomes an important frontier issue that we must face in the high-tech times. It is of both scientific significance to understand the dynamic process during solar storm's propagation in interplanetary space and realistic value to conduct physics-based numerical researches on the three-dimensional process of solar storms in interplanetary space with the aid of powerful computing capacity to predict the arrival times, intensities, and probable geoeffectiveness of solar storms at the Earth. So far, numerical studies based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have gone through the transition from the initial qualitative principle researches to systematic quantitative studies on concrete events and numerical predictions. Numerical modeling community has a common goal to develop an end-to-end physics-based modeling system for forecasting the Sun-Earth relationship. It is hoped that the transition of these models to operational use depends on the availability of computational resources at reasonable cost and that the models' prediction capabilities may be improved by incorporating the observational findings and constraints into physics-based models, combining the observations, empirical models and MHD simulations in organic ways. In this talk, we briefly focus on our recent progress in using solar observations to produce realistic magnetic configurations of CMEs as they leave the Sun, and coupling data-driven simulations of CMEs to heliospheric simulations that then propagate the CME configuration to 1AU, and outlook the important numerical issues and their possible solutions in numerical space weather modeling from the Sun to Earth for future research.

Coastal Lake Record of Holocene Paleo-Storms from Northwest Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donoghue, J. F.; Coor, J. L.; Wang, Y.; Das, O.; Kish, S.; Elsner, J.; Hu, X. B.; Niedoroda, A. W.; Ye, M.

2009-12-01

The northwest Florida coast of the Gulf of Mexico has an unusually active storm history. Climate records for a study area in the mid-region of the Florida panhandle coast show that 29 hurricanes have made landfall within a 100-km radius during historic time. These events included 9 major storms (category 3 or higher). A longer-term geologic record of major storm impacts is essential for better understanding storm climatology and refining morphodynamic models. The Florida panhandle region contains a series of unique coastal lakes which are long-lived and whose bottom sediments hold a long-term record of coastal storm occurrence. The lakes are normally isolated from the open Gulf, protected behind a near-continuous dune barrier. Lake water is normally fresh to brackish. Lake bottom sediments consist of organic-rich muds. During major storms the dunes are breached and the lakes are temporarily open to marine water and the possibility of sandy overwash. Both a sedimentologic and geochemical signature is imparted to the lake sediments by storm events. Bottom sediment cores have been collected from the lakes. The cores have been subsampled and subjected to sedimentologic, stable isotopic and geochronologic analyses. The result is a sediment history of the lakes, and a record of storm occurrence during the past few millennia. The outcome is a better understanding of the long-term risk of major storms. The findings are being incorporated into a larger model designed to make reliable predictions of the effects of near-future climate change on natural coastal systems and on coastal infrastructure, and to enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Ionospheric response to 17 March 2013 geomagnetic storm identified by data assimilation result

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Xinan; Zhao, Biqiang; Hu, Lianhuan; She, Chengli

2017-04-01

Based on slant total electron content (TEC) observations made by 10 satellites and 450 ground IGS GNSS stations, we constructed a 4-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis during the March 17, 2013 geomagnetic storm. Four main large-scale ionospheric disturbances are identified from reanalysis: (1) The positive storm during the initial phase; (2) The SED (storm enhanced density) structure in both northern and southern hemisphere; (3) The large positive storm in main phase; (4) The significant negative storm in middle and low latitude during recovery phase. We then run the NCAR-TIEGCM model with Heelis electric potential empirical model as polar input. The TIEGCM can reproduce 3 of 4 large-scale structures (except SED) very well. We then further analyzed the altitudinal variations of these large-scale disturbances and found several interesting things, such as the altitude variation of SED, the rotation of positive/negative storm phase with local time. Those structures could not be identified clearly by traditional used data sources, which either has no global coverage or no vertical resolution. The drivers such as neutral wind/density and electric field from TIEGCM simulations are also analyzed to self-consistently explain the identified disturbance features.

Large Scale Ionospheric Response During March 17, 2013 Geomagnetic Storm: Reanalysis Based on Multiple Satellites Observations and TIEGCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, X.; Wang, W.; Schreiner, W. S.; Kuo, Y. H.; Lei, J.; Liu, J.; Burns, A. G.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, S.

2015-12-01

Based on slant total electron content (TEC) observations made by ~10 satellites and ~450 ground IGS GNSS stations, we constructed a 4-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis during the March 17, 2013 geomagnetic storm. Four main large-scale ionospheric disturbances are identified from reanalysis: (1) The positive storm during the initial phase; (2) The SED (storm enhanced density) structure in both northern and southern hemisphere; (3) The large positive storm in main phase; (4) The significant negative storm in middle and low latitude during recovery phase. We then run the NCAR-TIEGCM model with Heelis electric potential empirical model as polar input. The TIEGCM can reproduce 3 of 4 large-scale structures (except SED) very well. We then further analyzed the altitudinal variations of these large-scale disturbances and found several interesting things, such as the altitude variation of SED, the rotation of positive/negative storm phase with local time. Those structures could not be identified clearly by traditional used data sources, which either has no gloval coverage or no vertical resolution. The drivers such as neutral wind/density and electric field from TIEGCM simulations are also analyzed to self-consistantly explain the identified disturbance features.

Floodplain rehabilitation as a hedge against hydroclimatic uncertainty in a migration corridor of threatened steelhead.

PubMed

Boughton, David A; Pike, Andrew S

2013-12-01

A strategy for recovering endangered species during climate change is to restore ecosystem processes that moderate effects of climate shifts. In mid-latitudes, storm patterns may shift their intensity, duration, and frequency. These shifts threaten flooding in human communities and reduce migration windows (conditions suitable for migration after a storm) for fish. Rehabilitation of historic floodplains can in principle reduce these threats via transient storage of storm water, but no one has quantified the benefit of floodplain rehabilitation for migrating fish, a widespread biota with conservation and economic value. We used simple models to quantify migration opportunity for a threatened migratory fish, steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), in an episodic rain-fed river system, the Pajaro River in central California. We combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. Generally, migration opportunities were insensitive to warming, weakly sensitive to duration or intensity of storms, and proportionately sensitive to frequency of storms. The rehabilitation strategy expanded migration windows by 16-28% regardless of climate outcomes. Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. Rehabilitación de Planicies Inundables como Cerco contra la Incertidumbre Hidroclimática en un Corredor Migratorio de Oncorhynchus mykiss, Especie Amenazada. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

The electrification of Nova Scotia, 1884--1973: Technological modernization as a response to regional disparity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Lionel Bradley

This dissertation investigates local attempts to use technology as a force for regional rehabilitation in the economically-depressed Maritime region of Canada. At the time of Confederation in 1867, the Maritime province of Nova Scotia was prosperous, progressive, and cultured. By the end of the 1910s, the province had entered a long period of economic and social decline. Recent historiography has shown that, far from passively accepting their fate, Nova Scotians and other Maritimers, actively resisted marginalization with political, cultural, or social action. The thesis expands upon that literature by exploring technology-based strategies of provincial rehabilitation using Thomas P. Hughes's systems perspective and David E. Nye's semiotic approach. In doing so, it applies methods from the social constructivist school of the history of technology to the larger concerns of Maritime Canadian historiography. In large part, the North American culture of technology determined the ways in which Nova Scotians applied technological solutions to provincial concerns. Technology has long been central to the Western idea of progress. As the "high technology" of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, electricity reinforced that view: its ephemeral nature and silent efficiency led people to endow it with transformative, even mystical, powers. As a result, Nova Scotians, adopted a program of electrical modernization in the late 1910s as a remedy for regional disparity. The Nova Scotia government's first step was the creation of an Ontario-style hydroelectric commission designed to bring order to the province's fragmented and inefficient electrical network. Over the next few decades, the Nova Scotia Power Commission implemented rural electrification, home modernization, and regional system-building models that had already proven successful in Ontario and the United States. The system-building philosophies behind these programs were adapted to local conditions and disseminated throughout the province by politicians, engineers, businesspeople, and social reformers. Although electrical modernization failed to address the structural reasons for the province's decline, Nova Scotians continued to include it in their provincial rehabilitation plans until the 1960s. In sum, the electrification of Nova Scotia was not merely a technical event, but was shaped by the province's aspiration to regain its prior position in Confederation.

Application of spatial Poisson process models to air mass thunderstorm rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eagleson, P. S.; Fennessy, N. M.; Wang, Qinliang; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

1987-01-01

Eight years of summer storm rainfall observations from 93 stations in and around the 154 sq km Walnut Gulch catchment of the Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, in Arizona are processed to yield the total station depths of 428 storms. Statistical analysis of these random fields yields the first two moments, the spatial correlation and variance functions, and the spatial distribution of total rainfall for each storm. The absolute and relative worth of three Poisson models are evaluated by comparing their prediction of the spatial distribution of storm rainfall with observations from the second half of the sample. The effect of interstorm parameter variation is examined.

Dynamic simulation of storm-driven barrier island morphology under future sea level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passeri, D. L.; Long, J.; Plant, N. G.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.

2016-12-01

The impacts of short-term processes such as tropical and extratropical storms have the potential to alter barrier island morphology. On the event scale, the effects of storm-driven morphology may result in damage or loss of property, infrastructure and habitat. On the decadal scale, the combination of storms and sea level rise (SLR) will evolve barrier islands. The effects of SLR on hydrodynamics and coastal morphology are dynamic and inter-related; nonlinearities in SLR can cause larger peak surges, lengthier inundation times and additional inundated land, which may result in increased erosion, overwash or breaching along barrier islands. This study uses a two-dimensional morphodynamic model (XBeach) to examine the response of Dauphin Island, AL to storm surge under future SLR. The model is forced with water levels and waves provided by a large-domain hydrodynamic model. A historic validation of hurricanes Ivan and Katrina indicates the model is capable of predicting morphologic response with high skill (0.5). The validated model is used to simulate storm surge driven by Ivan and Katrina under four future SLR scenarios, ranging from 20 cm to 2 m. Each SLR scenario is implemented using a static or "bathtub" approach (in which water levels are increased linearly by the amount of SLR) versus a dynamic approach (in which SLR is applied at the open ocean boundary of the hydrodynamic model and allowed to propagate through the domain as guided by the governing equations). Results illustrate that higher amounts of SLR result in additional shoreline change, dune erosion, overwash and breaching. Compared to the dynamic approach, the static approach over-predicts inundation, dune erosion, overwash and breaching of the island. Overall, results provide a better understanding of the effects of SLR on storm-driven barrier island morphology and support a paradigm shift away from the "bathtub" approach, towards considering the integrated, dynamic effects of SLR.

Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

2014-12-01

The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula were found to be more prone to experiencing wind and flood related hurricane hazards. Novel methodologies developed from this analysis can be adapted for further hurricane risk assessment on archeological sites.

Modeling Wave Overtopping on the Chandeleur Islands during Hurricane Katrina using XBeach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindemer, C. A.; Plant, N.; Puleo, J.; Thompson, D.

2008-12-01

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines of along the Gulf Coast. Much of the Gulf Coast is ringed with barrier islands that provide inland marshes and the mainland some protection from storm events. The Chandeleur Islands, are located 161 km east of New Orleans, Louisiana and are oriented from north to south, and act to dissipate some of this energy. After a series of major storm events between 2001 and 2005, Hurricane Katrina's devastation in the fall of 2005 was particularly violent, destroying two-thirds of the area associated with the island chain. We would like to evaluate the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion. We test the ability of a time-dependent hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model, XBeach, to predict the impact of Hurricane Katrina on portions of Chandeleur Islands. Pre-storm LIDAR-derived bathymetry/topography and surge and wave data were used to drive a number of XBeach simulations. Model-predicted morphology was compared to post-storm LIDAR data. The accuracy of these predictions, including model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions, are presented.

Interplanetary radio storms. II - Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougeret, J.-L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

1984-01-01

Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetary medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the sun. Using a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL (SWMM) MODERNIZATION

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Water Supply and Water Resources Division in partnership with the consulting firm of CDM to redevelop and modernize the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). In the initial phase of this project EPA rewrote SWMM's computational engine usi...

Evaluation and development of satellite inferences of convective storm intensity using combined case study and thunderstorm model simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cotton, W. R.; Tripoli, G. J.

1982-01-01

Observational requirements for predicting convective storm development and intensity as suggested by recent numerical experiments are examined. Recent 3D numerical experiments are interpreted with regard to the relationship between overshooting tops and surface wind gusts. The development of software for emulating satellite inferred cloud properties using 3D cloud model predicted data and the simulation of Heymsfield (1981) Northern Illinois storm are described as well as the development of a conceptual/semi-quantitative model of eastward propagating, mesoscale convective complexes forming to the lee of the Rocky Mountains.

A methodology for modeling barrier island storm-impact scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mickey, Rangley C.; Long, Joseph W.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thompson, David M.; Dalyander, P. Soupy

2017-02-16

A methodology for developing a representative set of storm scenarios based on historical wave buoy and tide gauge data for a region at the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, was developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. The total water level was calculated for a 10-year period and analyzed against existing topographic data to identify when storm-induced wave action would affect island morphology. These events were categorized on the basis of the threshold of total water level and duration to create a set of storm scenarios that were simulated, using a high-fidelity, process-based, morphologic evolution model, on an idealized digital elevation model of the Chandeleur Islands. The simulated morphological changes resulting from these scenarios provide a range of impacts that can help coastal managers determine resiliency of proposed or existing coastal structures and identify vulnerable areas within those structures.

Energy content of stormtime ring current from phase space mapping simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Margaret W.; Schulz, Michael; Lyons, Larry R.

1993-01-01

We perform a phase space mapping study to estimate the enhancement in energy content that results from stormtime particle transport in the equatorial magnetosphere. Our pre-storm phase space distribution is based on a steady-state transport model. Using results from guiding-center simulations of ion transport during model storms having main phases of 3 hr, 6 hr, and 12 hr, we map phase space distributions of ring current protons from the pre-storm distribution in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find that transport can account for the entire ten to twenty-fold increase in magnetospheric particle energy content typical of a major storm if a realistic stormtime enhancement of the phase space density f is imposed at the nightside tail plasma sheet (represented by an enhancement of f at the neutral line in our model).

Modelling the effect of severe storms in coastal pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grau, A.; Bolea, Y.; Guerra, E.

2009-09-01

Modelling and simulation of real events can be very useful to prevent environmental disasters, but these disasters can affect the health and life of human beings; then such tools become definitively necessary for governmental authorities to avoid population risk. In this wok we present a mathematical model that combines the effect of Mediterranean storms together with the effect of wastewater emissary dissolutions at the sea. The emissary model corresponds to a Catalan wastewater plant, the Besos plant in Barcelona. This plant throws the wastewater to the Mediterranean Sea with a 3-km pipe emissary, after a bacteriologically polluted secondary treatment. This polluted water is dissoluted in the salty water, provoking the death of all bacteria agents before they reach the coast. But in difficult conditions under violent storms, with strong East winds, the bacteriological polluted dissolution reaches the shore before the bacteria die and, therefore, a severe coastal pollution is produced. Its consequence can incur in a public health problem and the different governmental agencies activate great alarms to avoid population hazard. Storms modelling permits to evaluate the risk of coastal pollution predicting the wastewater dissolution path and velocity. Several simulations are presented under different storm conditions, making this tool very useful for the environmental protection agencies in the Catalan government.

From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

2014-05-01

The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

7 CFR 1703.101 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... this subpart, RUS will not favor or mandate the use of one particular technology over another. (d... electric loan under the Rural Electrification Act of 1936. Telecommunications and Electric borrowers are...

7 CFR 1703.101 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... this subpart, RUS will not favor or mandate the use of one particular technology over another. (d... electric loan under the Rural Electrification Act of 1936. Telecommunications and Electric borrowers are...

7 CFR 1703.101 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... this subpart, RUS will not favor or mandate the use of one particular technology over another. (d... electric loan under the Rural Electrification Act of 1936. Telecommunications and Electric borrowers are...

7 CFR 1703.101 - Policy.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... this subpart, RUS will not favor or mandate the use of one particular technology over another. (d... electric loan under the Rural Electrification Act of 1936. Telecommunications and Electric borrowers are...

Influences of Electrification and Salt on Hydrophobicity of Sample Surface in Dynamic Drop Test

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shiibara, Daiki; Arata, Yoshihiro; Haji, Kenichi; Miyake, Takuma; Sakoda, Tatsuya; Otsubo, Masahisa

Studies on the development of deterioration/ performance evaluation method for outdoor electric insulation of polymer materials are pushed forward now in the International Council on Large Electric Systems (CIGRE). The small scale test method (Dynamic drop test; DDT) which could evaluate disappearance characteristics of hydrophobicity easily was suggested. This test is to evaluate resistance of a sample to loss of hydrophobicity due to moisture and simultaneous electric stress. As factors for deterioration of hydrophobicity on a sample in DDT, various factors such as electrical influence, physical influence by water droplets and so on were considered. In this study, we investigated two kinds of factors (electrification and salt) affecting deterioration of hydrophobicity on the surface of a silicone rubber until ignition of continuous electrical discharge in DDT.

Adjustment of regional regression models of urban-runoff quality using data for Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, Tennessee

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoos, Anne B.; Patel, Anant R.

1996-01-01

Model-adjustment procedures were applied to the combined data bases of storm-runoff quality for Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Nashville, Tennessee, to improve predictive accuracy for storm-runoff quality for urban watersheds in these three cities and throughout Middle and East Tennessee. Data for 45 storms at 15 different sites (five sites in each city) constitute the data base. Comparison of observed values of storm-runoff load and event-mean concentration to the predicted values from the regional regression models for 10 constituents shows prediction errors, as large as 806,000 percent. Model-adjustment procedures, which combine the regional model predictions with local data, are applied to improve predictive accuracy. Standard error of estimate after model adjustment ranges from 67 to 322 percent. Calibration results may be biased due to sampling error in the Tennessee data base. The relatively large values of standard error of estimate for some of the constituent models, although representing significant reduction (at least 50 percent) in prediction error compared to estimation with unadjusted regional models, may be unacceptable for some applications. The user may wish to collect additional local data for these constituents and repeat the analysis, or calibrate an independent local regression model.

Interplanetary radio storms. 2: Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougeret, J. L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

1982-01-01

Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetry medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the Sun. Usng a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the central meridian passage of the storm. The comparison with average in situ density measurements compiled from the HELIOS 1-2 observations favors type III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

Seepage and Piping through Levees and Dikes using 2D and 3D Modeling Codes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

by the Hydrologic Systems Branch of the Flood and Storm Protection Division (CEERD-HF), U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal ...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 6- 6 Flood & Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Program Seepage and Piping through Levees and Dikes Using 2D and 3D...Flood & Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Program ERDC/CHL TR-16-6 June 2016 Seepage and Piping through Levees and Dikes Using 2D and 3D Modeling Codes

Ring Current Dynamics in Moderate and Strong Storms: Comparative Analysis of TWINS and IMAGE/HENA Data with the Comprehensive Ring Current Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M.-C.; Goldstein, J.; Valek, P.; McComas, D. J.; Brandt, P. C.

2010-01-01

We present a comparative study of ring current dynamics during strong and moderate storms. The ring current during the strong storm is studied with IMAGE/HENA data near the solar cycle maximum in 2000. The ring current during the moderate storm is studied using energetic neutral atom (ENA) data from the Two Wide-Angle Imaging Neutral- Atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission during the solar minimum in 2008. For both storms, the local time distributions of ENA emissions show signatures of postmidnight enhancement (PME) during the main phases. To model the ring current and ENA emissions, we use the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM). CRCM results show that the main-phase ring current pressure peaks in the premidnight-dusk sector, while the most intense CRCM-simulated ENA emissions show PME signatures. We analyze two factors to explain this difference: the dependence of charge-exchange cross section on energy and pitch angle distributions of ring current. We find that the IMF By effect (twisting of the convection pattern due to By) is not needed to form the PME. Additionally, the PME is more pronounced for the strong storm, although relative shielding and hence electric field skewing is well developed for both events.

Detection and Prediction of Hail Storms in Satellite Imagery using Deep Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullman, M.; Gurung, I.; Ramachandran, R.; Maskey, M.

2017-12-01

Natural hazards, such as damaging hail storms, dramatically disrupt both industry and agriculture, having significant socio-economic impacts in the United States. In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest 2016 weather phenomenon in the United States. The destructive nature and high cost of hail storms has driven research into the development of more accurate hail-prediction algorithms in an effort to mitigate societal impacts. Recently, weather forecasting efforts have turned to deep learning neural networks because neural networks can more effectively model complex, nonlinear, dynamical phenomenon that exist in large datasets through multiple stages of transformation and representation. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages satellite imagery to detect and predict the occurrence of hail storms. The technique is applied to satellite imagery from 2006 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and incorporates hail reports obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database for training and validation purposes. In this presentation, we describe a novel approach to predicting hail via a neural network model that creates a large labeled dataset of hail storms, the accuracy and results of the model, and its applications for improving hail forecasting.

Establishing a Numerical Modeling Framework for Hydrologic Engineering Analyses of Extreme Storm Events

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Leung, L. Ruby

In this study a numerical modeling framework for simulating extreme storm events was established using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Such a framework is necessary for the derivation of engineering parameters such as probable maximum precipitation that are the cornerstone of large water management infrastructure design. Here this framework was built based on a heavy storm that occurred in Nashville (USA) in 2010, and verified using two other extreme storms. To achieve the optimal setup, several combinations of model resolutions, initial/boundary conditions (IC/BC), cloud microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes were evaluated using multiple metrics of precipitation characteristics. Themore » evaluation suggests that WRF is most sensitive to IC/BC option. Simulation generally benefits from finer resolutions up to 5 km. At the 15km level, NCEP2 IC/BC produces better results, while NAM IC/BC performs best at the 5km level. Recommended model configuration from this study is: NAM or NCEP2 IC/BC (depending on data availability), 15km or 15km-5km nested grids, Morrison microphysics and Kain-Fritsch cumulus schemes. Validation of the optimal framework suggests that these options are good starting choices for modeling extreme events similar to the test cases. This optimal framework is proposed in response to emerging engineering demands of extreme storm events forecasting and analyses for design, operations and risk assessment of large water infrastructures.« less

Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

2010-01-01

Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

The Poleward Shift of Storm Tracks Under Climate Change: Tracking Cyclones in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspi, Y.; Tamarin, T.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate the distribution of precipitation and wind in the midlatitudes, and therefore their frequency, intensity, and paths have a significant effect on weather and climate. Comprehensive climate models forced by enhanced greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under a climate change scenario, the latitudinal band of storm tracks would shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what is the dominant dynamical mechanism. Here we use a Lagrangian approach to study the poleward shift, by employing a storm-tracking algorithm on an ensemble of CMIP5 models forced by increased CO2 emissions. We demonstrate that in addition to a poleward shift in the latitude of storm genesis, associated with the expansion of the Hadley cell, the averaged cyclonic storm also propagates more poleward until it reaches its maximum intensity. A mechanism for enhanced poleward motion of cyclones in a warmer climate is proposed, supported by idealized global warming experiments, and relates the shift to changes in upper level jet and atmospheric water vapour content. Our results imply that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the averaged latitude of peak cyclone intensity shifts poleward by about 1.2○ (1.0○) in the Atlantic (Pacific) storm track in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and by about 1.6○ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm track. These changes in cyclone tracks can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping

This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model wasmore » able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.« less

Introduction on the operational storm surge forecasting system in Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwon, Jae-Il; Park, Kwang-Soon; Choi, Jung-Woon; Lee, Jong-Chan; Heo, Ki-Young; Kim, Sang-Ik

2017-04-01

During last more than 50 years, 258 typhoons passed and affected the Korean peninsula in terms of high winds, storm surges and extreme waves. In this study we explored the performance of the operational storm surge forecasting system in the Korea Operational Oceanographic System (KOOS) with 8 typhoons from 2010 to 2016. The operation storm surge forecasting system for the typhoon in KOOS is based on 2D depth averaged model with tides and CE (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers) wind model. Two key parameters of CE wind model, the locations of typhoon center and its central atmospheric pressure are based from Korea Meteorological administrative (KMA)'s typhoon information provided from 1 day to 3 hour intervals with the approach of typhoon through the KMA's web-site. For 8 typhoons cases, the overall errors, other performances and analysis such as peak time and surge duration are presented in each case. The most important factor in the storm surge errors in the operational forecasting system is the accuracy of typhoon passage prediction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Pierce, Julia; Mahat, Vinod

This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with amore » heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.« less

Environmental and Water Quality Operational Studies: Proceedings of the DeGray Lake Symposium Held in Arkadelphia, Arkansas.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

statistics for storm water quality variables and fractions of phosphorus, solids, and carbon are presented in Tables 7 and 8, respectively. The correlation...matrix and factor analysis (same method as used for baseflow) of storm water quality variables suggested three groups: Group I - TMG, TCA, TNA, TSI...models to predict storm water quality . The 11 static and 3 dynamic storm variables were used as potential dependent variables. All independent and

Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

2017-12-01

The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010 eras. Results will provide insight into how storm surge has evolved in coastal Louisiana from 1930 to 2010 and assist to inform policy makers of regions with temporally accelerating storm surge.

Simulation of Tornado over Brahmanbaria on 22 March 2013 using Doppler Weather Radar and WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, M. K.; Chowdhury, M.; Das, S.

2013-12-01

A tornado accompanied with thunderstorm, rainfall and hailstorm affected Brahmanbaria of Bangladesh in the afternoon of 22 March 2013. The tornadic storms are studied based on field survey, ground and radar observations. Low level moisture influx by southerly flow from the Bay of Bengal coupled with upper level westerly jet stream causing intense instability and shear in the wind fields triggered a series of storms for the day. The exact time and locations of the storms are investigated by using the Agartala and Cox's Bazar Doppler Weather Radar (DWR). Subsequently, the storms are simulated by using the WRF-ARW model at 1 km horizontal resolution based on 6 hourly analyses and boundary conditions of NCEP-FNL. Among the typical characteristics of the storms, the CAPE, surface wind speed, flow patterns, T-Φ gram, rainfall, sea level pressure, vorticity and vertical velocity are studied. Results show that while there are differences of 2-3 hours between the observed and simulated time of the storms, the distances between observed and simulated locations of the storms are several tens of kilometers. The maximum CAPE was generally above 2400 J kg-1 in the case. The maximum intensity of surface wind speed simulated by the model was only 38 m sec-1. This seems to be underestimated. The highest vertical velocity (updraft) simulated by the model was 250 m sec-1 around 800-950 hPa. The updraft reached up to 150 hPa. It seems that the funnel vortex reached the ground, and might have passed some places a few meters above the surface. According to the Fujita Pearson scale, this tornado can be classified as F-2 with estimated wind speed of 50-70 ms-1. Keywords: Tornado, DWR, NCEP-FNL, T-Φ gram, CAPE.

Session on techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Droegemeier, Kelvin

1993-01-01

The session on techniques and resources for storm-scale numerical weather prediction are reviewed. The recommendations of this group are broken down into three area: modeling and prediction, data requirements in support of modeling and prediction, and data management. The current status, modeling and technological recommendations, data requirements in support of modeling and prediction, and data management are addressed.

Multi-Scale Ionospheric Responses to the St. Patrick's Day Storm (2015) Studied Using a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System and GPS Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pi, X.; Butala, M.; Vergados, P.; Mannucci, A. J.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.; Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.

2015-12-01

Under the U.S. NASA and NSF collaborative space weather modeling initiative, a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) for ionosphere-thermosphere-electrodynamics is being developed. The system includes several Global Assimilative Ionospheric Models (GAIMs) developed by the investigators from Utah State University, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and University of Southern California. In this study, four GAIMs are applied to a study of ionospheric response to the 17 March 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm. It is the most severe geomagnetic storm in the current solar cycle so far. The daily planetary magnetic Ap index and magnetic Kp, Dst, as well as AE indices reached their very high values, i.e., 108, 8, -202 nT, and 2269 nT, respectively. In the assimilative modeling, GPS data from hundreds of globally-distributed ground stations and a number of COSMIC satellites are assimilated into GAIMs to reproduce ionospheric 3-D volume densities and 2-D total electron content (TEC) during the severe storm. Evolution of strong, latitudinally-dependent, and hemispherically asymmetric ionospheric disturbances is revealed through the assimilative modeling. Using the same GPS data, Global Maps of Ionospheric Irregularities and Scintillation (GMIIS) have also been produced. Comparisons of the modeled large-scale ionospheric disturbances and measured small-scale ionospheric irregularities offer additional insight into the M-I-T coupling processes in different regions during varying storm phases. This presentation will provide a picture of distinguished multi-scale ionospheric response to the coronal mass ejection (CME) event during the major geomagnetic storm.

The role of ice particles in the microphysics and dynamics of deep convective storms in various latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Y. C.; Wang, P. K.

2017-12-01

The role of ice particles in the microphysics and dynamics of deep convective storms in various latitudes Yi-Chih Huang and Pao K. Wang Ice particles contribute to the microphysics and dynamics of severe storms in various regions of the world to a degree that is not commonly recognized. This study is motivated by the need to understand the role of ice particles plays in the development of severe storms so that their impact on various aspects of the storm behavior can be properly assessed. In this study, we perform numerical simulations of thunderstorms using a cloud resolving model WISCDYMM that includes parameterized microphysical processes to understand the role played by ice processes. We simulate thunderstorms occurred over various regions of the world including tropics, substropics and midlatitudes. We then perform statistical analysis of the simulated results to show the formation of various categories of hydrometeors to reveal the importance of ice processes. We will show that ice hydrometeors (cloud ice, snow, graupel/hail) account for 80% of the total hydrometeor mass for the High Plains storms but 50% for the subtropical storms. In addition, the melting of large ice particles (graupel and hail) is the major production process of rain in tropical storms although the ratio of ice-phase mass is responsible for only 40% of the total hydrometeor mass. Furthermore, hydrometeors have their own special microphysical processes in development and depletion over various latitudes. Microphysical structures depend on atmospheric dynamical and thermodynamical conditions which determine the partitioning of hydrometeors. This knowledge would benefit the microphysics parameterization in cloud models and cumulus parameterization in global circulation models.

Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere Response to a Geomagnetic Storm Using Physics-based Magnetospheric Energy Input: OpenGGCM-CTIM Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connor, Hyunju K.; Zesta, Eftyhia; Fedrizzi, Mariangel; Shi, Yong; Raeder, Joachim; Codrescu, Mihail V.; Fuller-Rowell, Tim J.

2016-01-01

The magnetosphere is a major source of energy for the Earth's ionosphere and thermosphere (IT) system. Current IT models drive the upper atmosphere using empirically calculated magnetospheric energy input. Thus, they do not sufficiently capture the storm-time dynamics, particularly at high latitudes. To improve the prediction capability of IT models, a physics-based magnetospheric input is necessary. Here, we use the Open Global General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM) coupled with the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Model (CTIM). OpenGGCM calculates a three-dimensional global magnetosphere and a two-dimensional high-latitude ionosphere by solving resistive magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations with solar wind input. CTIM calculates a global thermosphere and a high-latitude ionosphere in three dimensions using realistic magnetospheric inputs from the OpenGGCM. We investigate whether the coupled model improves the storm-time IT responses by simulating a geomagnetic storm that is preceded by a strong solar wind pressure front on August 24, 2005. We compare the OpenGGCM-CTIM results with low-earth-orbit satellite observations and with the model results of Coupled Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe). CTIPe is an up-to-date version of CTIM that incorporates more IT dynamics such as a low-latitude ionosphere and a plasmasphere, but uses empirical magnetospheric input. OpenGGCMCTIM reproduces localized neutral density peaks at approx. 400 km altitude in the high-latitude dayside regions in agreement with in situ observations during the pressure shock and the early phase of the storm. Although CTIPe is in some sense a much superior model than CTIM, it misses these localized enhancements. Unlike the CTIPe empirical input models, OpenGGCM-CTIM more faithfully produces localized increases of both auroral precipitation and ionospheric electric fields near the high-latitude dayside region after the pressure shock and after the storm onset, which in turn effectively heats the thermosphere and causes the neutral density increase at 400 km altitude.

Storm-driven delivery of sediment to the continental slope: Numerical modeling for the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, C. K.; Kniskern, T. A.; Arango, H.

2016-02-01

The supply of sediment from the continental shelf to deeper waters is of critical importance for building continental margin repositories of sediment, and may also factor into episodic events on the continental slope such as turbidity currents and slope failures. While numerical sediment transport models have been developed for coastal and continental shelf areas, they have not often been used to infer sediment delivery to deeper waters. A three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic - suspended sediment transport model for the northern Gulf of Mexico has been developed and run to evaluate the types of conditions that are associated with delivery of suspended sediment to the continental slope. Accounting for sediment delivery by riverine plumes and for sediment resuspension by energetic waves and currents, the sediment transport calculations were implemented within the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The model domain represents the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf and slope including the Mississippi birdfoot delta and the Mississippi and DeSoto Canyons. To investigate the role of storms in driving down-slope sediment fluxes, model runs that encompassed fall, 2007 through late summer, 2008 the summer and fall of 2008 were analyzed. This time period included several winter storms, and the passage of two hurricanes (Ike and Gustav) over the study area. Preliminary results indicated that sediment delivery to the continental slope was triggered by the passage of these storm events, and focused at certain locations, such as submarine canyons. Additionally, a climatological analysis indicates that storm track influences both the wind-driven currents and wave energy on the shelf, and as such plays an important role in determining which storms trigger delivery of suspended continental shelf sediment to the adjacent slope.

The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

2017-10-01

Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

Toward a new paradigm for boulder dislodgement during storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Robert; Sheremet, Alex

2017-07-01

Boulders are an important coastal hazard event deposit because they can only be moved by tsunamis and energetic storms effects of storms. Storms and tsunami are competing processes for coastal change along many shorelines. Therefore, distinguishing the boulders that were moved during a storm from those moved by a tsunami is important. In this contribution, we present the results of a parameter study based on the TRIADS model for wave shoaling on mildly sloping beaches, coupled with a boulder-dislodgement model that is based on Newton's Second Law of Motion. The results show how smaller slopes expose the waves longer to the nonlinear processes, thus increasing the energy in the infragravity wave band. More energy in the infragravity wave band means that there are more energy wave lengths that can dislodge larger boulders. At the same time, a steeper slope lowers the threshold for boulder dislodgement (critical angle of dislodgement), making it more likely for larger boulders to be dislodged on a steeper slope. The competition between these two processes govern boulder dislodgement during storms and is investigated inhere.

The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-04-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Mobility of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures: Impact of waves, currents and storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Siddhi; Duffy, Garret Patrick; Brown, Colin

2017-04-01

Maerl beds are free-living, non-geniculate coralline algae habitats which form biogenic reefs with high micro-scale complexity supporting a diversity and abundance of rare epifauna and epiflora. These habitats are highly mobile in shallow marine environments where substantial maerl beds co-exist with siliciclastic sediment, exemplified by our study site of Galway Bay. Coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport models have been used to explore the transport patterns of maerl-siliciclastic sediment during calm summer conditions and severe winter storms. The sediment distribution is strongly influenced by storm waves even in water depths greater than 100 m. Maerl is present at the periphery of wave-induced residual current gyres during storm conditions. A combined wave-current Sediment Mobility Index during storm conditions shows correlation with multibeam backscatter and surficial sediment distribution. A combined wave-current Mobilization Frequency Index during storm conditions acts as a physical surrogate for the presence of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures in Galway Bay. Both indices can provide useful integrated oceanographic and sediment information to complement coupled numerical hydrodynamic, sediment transport and erosion-deposition models.

Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan

2017-04-01

The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (www.prbo.org/ocof), where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture the societal aspect of the hazard, projections are combined with socioeconomic exposure to produce clear, actionable information (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/hera/); this integrated approach to hazard displays provides an example of how to effectively translate complex climate impacts projections into simple, societally-relevant information.

Storm-time changes of geomagnetic field at MAGSAT altitudes (325-550 Km) and their comparison with changes at ground locations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parada, N. D. J. (Principal Investigator); Kane, R. P.; Trivedi, N. B.

1983-01-01

The values of H, X, Y, Z at MAGSAT altitudes were first expressed as residuals delta H, delta X, delta Y, delta Z after subtracting the model HMD, XMD, YMD, ZMC. The storm-time variations of H showed that delta H (Dusk) was larger (negative) than delta H (Dawn) and occurred earlier, indicating a sort of hysteresis effect. Effects at MAGSAT altitudes were roughly the same (10% accuracy) as at ground, indicating that these effects were mostly of magnetospheric origin. The delta Y component also showed large storm-time changes. The latitudinal distribution of storm-time delta H showed north-south asymmetries varying in nature as the storm progressed. It seems that the central plane of the storm-time magnetospheric ring current undergoes latitudinal meanderings during the course of the storm.

Development of a severe local storm prediction system: A 60-day test of a mesoscale primitive equation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paine, D. A.; Zack, J. W.; Kaplan, M. L.

1979-01-01

The progress and problems associated with the dynamical forecast system which was developed to predict severe storms are examined. The meteorological problem of severe convective storm forecasting is reviewed. The cascade hypothesis which forms the theoretical core of the nested grid dynamical numerical modelling system is described. The dynamical and numerical structure of the model used during the 1978 test period is presented and a preliminary description of a proposed multigrid system for future experiments and tests is provided. Six cases from the spring of 1978 are discussed to illustrate the model's performance and its problems. Potential solutions to the problems are examined.

Simulating the meteorology and PM10 concentrations in Arizona dust storms using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (Wrf-Chem).

PubMed

Hyde, Peter; Mahalov, Alex; Li, Jialun

2018-03-01

Nine dust storms in south-central Arizona were simulated with the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry model (WRF-Chem) at 2 km resolution. The windblown dust emission algorithm was the Air Force Weather Agency model. In comparison with ground-based PM 10 observations, the model unevenly reproduces the dust-storm events. The model adequately estimates the location and timing of the events, but it is unable to precisely replicate the magnitude and timing of the elevated hourly concentrations of particles 10 µm and smaller ([PM 10 ]).Furthermore, the model underestimated [PM 10 ] in highly agricultural Pinal County because it underestimated surface wind speeds and because the model's erodible fractions of the land surface data were too coarse to effectively resolve the active and abandoned agricultural lands. In contrast, the model overestimated [PM 10 ] in western Arizona along the Colorado River because it generated daytime sea breezes (from the nearby Gulf of California) for which the surface-layer speeds were too strong. In Phoenix, AZ, the model's performance depended on the event, with both under- and overestimations partly due to incorrect representation of urban features. Sensitivity tests indicate that [PM 10 ] highly relies on meteorological forcing. Increasing the fraction of erodible surfaces in the Pinal County agricultural areas improved the simulation of [PM 10 ] in that region. Both 24-hr and 1-hr measured [PM 10 ] were, for the most part, and especially in Pinal County, extremely elevated, with the former exceeding the health standard by as much as 10-fold and the latter exceeding health-based guidelines by as much as 70-fold. Monsoonal thunderstorms not only produce elevated [PM 10 ], but also cause urban flash floods and disrupt water resource deliveries. Given the severity and frequency of these dust storms, and conceding that the modeling system applied in this work did not produce the desired agreement between simulations and observations, additional research in both the windblown dust emissions model and the weather research/physicochemical model is called for. While many dust storms can be considered to be natural, in semi-arid climates such storms often have an anthropogenic component in their sources of dust. Applying the natural, exceptional events policy to these storms with strong signatures of anthropogenic sources would appear not only to be misguided but also to stifle genuine regulatory efforts at remediation. Those dust storms that have resulted, in part, from passage over abandoned farm land should no longer be considered "natural"; policymakers and lawmakers need to compel the owners of such land to reduce its potential for windblown dust.

The cascade from local to global dust storms on Mars: Temporal and spatial thresholds on thermal and dynamical feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Richardson, Mark I.; Wang, Huiqun; Guzewich, Scott D.; Newman, Claire E.

2018-03-01

We use the MarsWRF general circulation model to examine the temporal and spatial response of the atmosphere to idealized local and regional dust storm radiative heating. The ability of storms to modify the atmosphere away from the location of dust heating is a likely prerequisite for dynamical feedbacks that aid the growth of storms beyond the local scale, while the ability of storms to modify the atmosphere after the cessation of dust radiative heating is potentially important in preconditioning the atmosphere prior to large scale storms. Experiments were conducted over a range of static, prescribed storm sizes, durations, optical depth strengths, locations, and vertical extents of dust heating. Our results show that for typical sizes (order 105 km2) and durations (1-10 sols) of local dust storms, modification of the atmosphere is less than the typical variability of the unperturbed (storm-free) state. Even if imposed on regional storm length scales (order 106 km2), a 1-sol duration storm similarly does not significantly modify the background atmosphere. Only when imposed for 10 sols does a regional dust storm create a significant impact on the background atmosphere, allowing for the possibility of self-induced dynamical storm growth. These results suggest a prototype for how the subjective observational categorization of storms may be related to objective dynamical growth feedbacks that only become available to storms after they achieve a threshold size and duration, or if they grow into an atmosphere preconditioned by a prior large and sustained storm.

Identification of Critical Vulnerable Areas During a Typhoon Haiyan Event in the Metro Manila Area Using Storm Surge Hazard Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briones, J. B. L. T.; Puno, J. V.; Lapidez, J. P. B.; Muldong, T. M. M.; Ramos, M. M.; Caro, C. V.; Ladiero, C.; Bahala, M. A.; Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.

2014-12-01

Sudden rises in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to an approaching storm are known as storm surges. The development of an early warning system for storm surges is imperative, due to the high threat level of these events; Typhoon Haiyan in 08 November 2013 generated storm surges that caused casualties of over 6,000. Under the Department of Science and Technology, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (DOST - Project NOAH) was tasked to generate storm surge hazard maps for all the coastal areas in the Philippines. The objective of this paper is to create guidelines on how to utilize the storm surge hazard map as a tool for planning and disaster mitigation. This study uses the case of the hypothetical situation in which a tropical storm with an intensity similar to Typhoon Haiyan hits Metro Manila. This site was chosen for various reasons, among them the economic, political, and cultural importance of Metro Manila as the location of the capital of the Philippines and the coastal bay length of the area. The concentration of residential areas and other establishments were also taken into account. Using the Japan Meteorology Association (JMA) Storm Surge Model, FLO-2D flood modelling software and the application of other GIS technology, the impact of Haiyan-strength typhoon passing through Manila was analysed. We were able to identify the population affected, number of affected critical facilities under each storm surge hazard level, and possible evacuation sites. The results of the study can be used as the basis of policies involving disaster response and mitigation by city authorities. The methods used by the study can be used as a replicable framework for the analysis of other sites in the Philippines.

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, C. W.; Walsh, E. J.; Krabill, W. B.; Shaffer, W. A.; Baig, S. R.; Peng, M.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Garcia, A. W.; Marks, F. D., Jr.; Black, P. G.;

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jakob, Christian

This report summarises an investigation into the relationship of tropical thunderstorms to the atmospheric conditions they are embedded in. The study is based on the use of radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in Darwin run under the auspices of the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research program. Linking the larger scales of the atmosphere with the smaller scales of thunderstorms is crucial for the development of the representation of thunderstorms in weather and climate models, which is carried out by a process termed parametrisation. Through the analysis of radar and wind profiler observations the project made several fundamental discoveriesmore » about tropical storms and quantified the relationship of the occurrence and intensity of these storms to the large-scale atmosphere. We were able to show that the rainfall averaged over an area the size of a typical climate model grid-box is largely controlled by the number of storms in the area, and less so by the storm intensity. This allows us to completely rethink the way we represent such storms in climate models. We also found that storms occur in three distinct categories based on their depth and that the transition between these categories is strongly related to the larger scale dynamical features of the atmosphere more so than its thermodynamic state. Finally, we used our observational findings to test and refine a new approach to cumulus parametrisation which relies on the stochastic modelling of the area covered by different convective cloud types.« less

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

Self-Consistent Model of Magnetospheric Ring Current and Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron Waves: The 2-7 May 1998 Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khazanov, G. V.; Gamayunov, K. V.; Jordanova, V. K.

2003-01-01

A complete description of a self-consistent model of magnetospheric ring current interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves is presented. The model is based on the system of two kinetic equations; one equation describes the ring current ion dynamics, and another equation describes the wave evolution. The effects on ring current ions interacting with electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves and back on waves are considered self-consistently by solving both equations on a global magnetospheric scale under nonsteady state conditions. The developed model is employed to simulate the entire 2-7 May 1998 storm period. First, the trapped number fluxes of the ring current protons are calculated and presented along with comparison with the data measured by the three- dimensional hot plasma instrument Polar/HYDRA. Incorporating in the model the wave-particle interaction leads to much better agreement between the experimental data and the model results. Second, examining of the wave (MLT, L shell) distributions produced by the model during the storm progress reveals an essential intensification of the wave emission about 2 days after the main phase of the storm. This result is well consistent with the earlier ground-based observations. Finally, the theoretical shapes and the occurrence rates of the wave power spectral densities are studied. It is found that about 2 days after the storm s main phase on 4 May, mainly non-Gaussian shapes of power spectral densities are produced.

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-01-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force, the sea-state-dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water-level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state-dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water-level and current predictions.

An Investigation of Dust Storms Observed with the Mars Color Imager

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Wang, Huiqun

2017-01-01

Daily global imaging by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) continues the record of the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and has allowed creation of a long-duration record of Martian dust storms. We observe dust storms over the first two Mars years of the MARCI record, including tracking individual storms over multiple sols, as well as tracking the growth and recession of the seasonal polar caps. Using the combined 6 Mars year record of textured dust storms (storms with visible textures on the observed dust cloud tops), we study the relationship between textured dust storm activity and meteorology (as simulated by the MarsWRF general circulation model) and surface properties. We find that textured dust storms preferentially occur in places and seasons with above average surface wind stress. Textured dust storm occurrence also has a modest linear anti-correlation with surface albedo (0.43) and topography (0.40). Lastly, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the distribution of occurrence of textured dust storms and find that over 50 of the variance in textured dust storm activity can be explained by two EOF modes. We associate the first EOF mode with cap-edge storms just before Ls = 180deg and the second EOF mode with flushing dust storms that occur from Ls = 180-210deg and again near Ls = 320deg.

The Climatology of Extreme Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.

2016-12-01

Extreme coastal storms devastate heavily populated areas around the world by producing powerful winds that can create a large storm surge. Both tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) occur over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and the risks associated with ETCs can be just as severe as those associated with tropical storms (e.g. high winds, storm surge). At The Battery in New York City, 17 of the 20 largest storm surge events were a consequence of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which are more prevalent than tropical cyclones in the northeast region of the United States. Therefore, we analyze the climatology of ETCs that are capable of producing a large storm surge along the northeastern coast of the United States. For a historical analysis, water level data was collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges at three separate locations (Sewell's Pt., VA, The Battery, NY, and Boston, MA). We perform a k-means cluster analysis of sea level pressure from the ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis dataset (ERA-20c) to explore the natural sets of observed storms with similar characteristics. We then composite cluster results with features of atmospheric circulation to observe the influence of interannual and multidecadal variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Since observational records contain a small number of well-documented ETCs, the capability of a high-resolution coupled climate model to realistically simulate such extreme coastal storms will also be assessed. Global climate models provide a means of simulating a much larger sample of extreme events, allowing for better resolution of the tail of the distribution. We employ a tracking algorithm to identify ETCs in a multi-century simulation under present-day conditions. Quantitative comparisons of cyclolysis, cyclogenesis, and cyclone densities of simulated ETCs and storms from recent history (using reanalysis products) are conducted.

Using Wind Setdown and Storm Surge on Lake Erie to Calibrate the Air-Sea Drag Coefficient

PubMed Central

Drews, Carl

2013-01-01

The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1. PMID:23977309

The Dependence of Tropical Cyclone Count and Size on Rotation Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavas, D. R.; Reed, K. A.

2017-12-01

Both theory and idealized equilibrium modeling studies indicate that tropical cyclone size decreases with background rotation rate. In contrast, in real-world observations size tends to increase with latitude. Here we seek to resolve this apparent contradiction via a set of reduced-complexity global aquaplanet simulations with varying planetary rotation rates using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model 5. The latitudinal distribution of both storm count and size are found to vary markedly with rotation rate, yielding insight into the dynamical constraints on tropical cyclone activity on a rotating planet. Moreover, storm size is found to vary non-monotonically with latitude, indicating that non-equilibrium effects are crucial to the life-cycle evolution of size in nature. Results are then compared to experiments in idealized, time-dependent limited-area modeling simulations using CM1 in axisymmetric and three-dimensional geometry. Taken together, this hierarchy of models is used to quantify the role of equilibrium versus transient controls on storm size and the relevance of each to real storms in nature.

An analysis of simulated and observed storm characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, R. E.

2010-09-01

A calculus-based cyclone identification (CCI) method has been applied to the most recent re-analysis (ERAINT) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and results from regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The storm frequency for events with central pressure below a threshold value of 960-990hPa were examined, and the gradient wind from the simulated storm systems were compared with corresponding estimates from the re-analysis. The analysis also yielded estimates for the spatial extent of the storm systems, which was also included in the regional climate model cyclone evaluation. A comparison is presented between a number of RCMs and the ERAINT re-analysis in terms of their description of the gradient winds, number of cyclones, and spatial extent. Furthermore, a comparison between geostrophic wind estimated though triangules of interpolated or station measurements of SLP is presented. Wind still represents one of the more challenging variables to model realistically.

Ion radial diffusion in an electrostatic impulse model for stormtime ring current formation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Margaret W.; Schulz, Michael; Lyons, Larry R.; Gorney, David J.

1992-01-01

Two refinements to the quasi-linear theory of ion radial diffusion are proposed and examined analytically with simulations of particle trajectories. The resonance-broadening correction by Dungey (1965) is applied to the quasi-linear diffusion theory by Faelthammar (1965) for an individual model storm. Quasi-linear theory is then applied to the mean diffusion coefficients resulting from simulations of particle trajectories in 20 model storms. The correction for drift-resonance broadening results in quasi-linear diffusion coefficients with discrepancies from the corresponding simulated values that are reduced by a factor of about 3. Further reductions in the discrepancies are noted following the averaging of the quasi-linear diffusion coefficients, the simulated coefficients, and the resonance-broadened coefficients for the 20 storms. Quasi-linear theory provides good descriptions of particle transport for a single storm but performs even better in conjunction with the present ensemble-averaging.

The storm time ring current dynamics and response to CMEs and CIRs using Van Allen Probes observations and CIMI simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mouikis, Christopher; Bingham, Samuel; Kistler, Lynn; Spence, Harlan; Gkioulidou, Matina

2017-04-01

The ring current responds differently to the different solar and interplanetary storm drivers such as coronal mass injections, (CME's), and co-rotating interaction regions (CIR's). Using Van Allen Probes observations, we develop an empirical ring current model of the ring current pressure, the pressure anisotropy and the current density development during the storm phases for both types of storm drivers and for all MLTs inside L 6. Delineating the differences in the ring current development between these two drivers will aid our understanding of the ring current dynamics. We find that during the storm main phase most of the ring current pressure in the pre-midnight inner magnetosphere is contributed by particles on open drift paths that cause the development of a strong partial ring current that causes most of the main phase Dst drop. These particles can reach as deep as L 2 and their pressure compares to the local magnetic field pressure as deep as L 3. During the recovery phase, if these particles are not lost at the magnetopause, will become trapped and will contribute to the symmetric ring current. However, the largest difference between the CME and CIR ring current responses during the storm main and early recovery phases is caused by how the 15 - 60 keV O+ responds to these drivers. This empirical model is compared to the results of CIMI simulations of a CMEs and a CIRs where the model input is comprised of the superposed epoch solar wind conditions of the storms that comprise the empirical model. Different inner magnetosphere boundary conditions are tested in order to match the empirical model results. Comparing the model and simulation results improves our understanding of the ring current dynamics as part of the highly coupled inner magnetosphere system. In addition, within the framework of this empirical model, the prediction of the EMIC wave generation linear theory is tested using the observed plasma parameters and comparing with the observations of EMIC waves.

A Storm Surge and Inundation Model of the Back River Watershed at NASA Langley Research Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftis, Jon Derek; Wang, Harry V.; DeYoung, Russell J.

2013-01-01

This report on a Virginia Institute for Marine Science project demonstrates that the sub-grid modeling technology (now as part of Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System, CIPS) can incorporate high-resolution Lidar measurements provided by NASA Langley Research Center into the sub-grid model framework to resolve detailed topographic features for use as a hydrological transport model for run-off simulations within NASA Langley and Langley Air Force Base. The rainfall over land accumulates in the ditches/channels resolved via the model sub-grid was tested to simulate the run-off induced by heavy precipitation. Possessing both the capabilities for storm surge and run-off simulations, the CIPS model was then applied to simulate real storm events starting with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will be shown that the model can generate highly accurate on-land inundation maps as demonstrated by excellent comparison of the Langley tidal gauge time series data (CAPABLE.larc.nasa.gov) and spatial patterns of real storm wrack line measurements with the model results simulated during Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and a 2009 Nor'easter. With confidence built upon the model's performance, sea level rise scenarios from the ICCP (International Climate Change Partnership) were also included in the model scenario runs to simulate future inundation cases.

Nick Laws | NREL

Science.gov Websites

, including cost savings, pollution reductions, and renewable energy portfolios. As a member of the REopt team as the electrification of the energy economy. At the distribution edge, Nick is interested in control

Measuring and building resilience after big storms: Lessons learned from Super-Storm Sandy for the Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdoch, P. S.; Penn, K. M.; Taylor, S. M.; Subramanian, B.; Bennett, R.

2017-12-01

As we recover from recent large storms, we need information to support increased environmental and socio-economic resilience of the Nation's coasts. Defining baseline conditions, tracking effects of mitigation actions, and measuring the uncertainty of resilience to future disturbance are essential so that the best management practices can be determined. The US Dept. of the Interior invested over $787 million dollars in 2013 to understand and mitigate coastal storm vulnerabilities and enhance resilience of the Northeast coast following Super-Storm Sandy. Several lessons-learned from that investment have direct application to mitigation and restoration needs following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. New models of inundation, overwash, and erosion, developed during the Sandy projects have already been applied to coastlines before and after these recent storms. Results from wetland, beach, back-bay, estuary, and built-environment projects improved models of inundation and erosion from surge and waves. Tests of nature-based infrastructure for mitigating coastal disturbance yielded new concepts for best-practices. Ecological and socio-economic measurements established for detecting disturbance and tracking recovery provide baseline data critical to early detection of vulnerabilities. The Sandy lessons and preliminary applications on the recent storms could help define best-resilience practices before more costly mitigation or restoration efforts are required.

Temporal evolution of ion spectral structures during a geomagnetic storm: Observations and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferradas, C.; Zhang, J.; Spence, H. E.; Kistler, L. M.; Larsen, B.; Reeves, G. D.; Skoug, R. M.; Funsten, H. O.

2016-12-01

During the last decades several missions have recorded the presence of dynamic spectral features of energetic ions in the inner magnetosphere. We present a case study of the temporal evolution of H+, He+, and O+ spectral structures throughout the geomagnetic storm of 2 October 2013. We use data from the Helium, Oxygen, Proton, and Electron (HOPE) mass spectrometer onboard Van Allen Probe A to analyze the spectral structures in the energy range of 1- 50 keV. We find that the characteristics of the ion structures follow a cyclic pattern, the observed features changing dramatically as the storm starts and then returning to its initial pre-storm state. Quiet, pre-storm times are characterized by multiple and often complex flux structures at narrow energy bands. During the storm main phase, the observed features become simple, with no nose structures or only one nose structure present in the energy-time spectrograms. As the inner magnetosphere recovers from the storm, more complex structures appear once again. Additionally, the heavy ion spectral features are generally more complex than the H+ features, with multiple noses being observed more often in the heavy ion spectra. We use a model of ion drift and losses due to charge exchange to understand the formation of the spectral features and their species dependence.

Numerical Study of the Port of Miami (Importance of Dodge Island) in Storm Surge and Flooding Forecasting in North Biscayne Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, H.; Zhang, K.; Li, Y.

2011-12-01

The importance of Port of Miami (Dodge Island) in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay was investigated by using the numerical model Coastal and Estuarine Storm Tide (CEST). Firstly, CEST was applied to Hurricane Andrew of 1992 in the Biscayne Bay basin and validated by in situ measurements, which indicated the model results had good agreement with measured data. Secondly, two sets of experiments using Hurricane Miami of 1926 were conducted to study the role of Dodge Island in storm surge and flooding forecasting in North Biscayne Bay: one set of experiments were run in today's Biscayne Bay basin and another set of experiments were run in Biscayne Bay basin of 1926 in which Dodge Island was not created yet. Results indicated that storm surge and flooding areas were reduced a little bit in Miami River areas when Dodge Island was not there. Meanwhile, storm surge and flooding areas in North Miami and Miami Beach regions were largely increased. Results further indicated that as long as the hurricane made landfall in south of Dodge Island, it can provide a good protection for Miami Beach area to reduce storm surge and flooding impacts.

Response of the Mississippi Bight and Sound to the Passage of Tropical Storm Cindy Through the Northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hode, L. E.; Howden, S. D.; Diercks, A. R.; Cambazoglu, M. K.; Jones, E. B.; Martin, K. M.

2017-12-01

Damage inflicted by tropical storms and hurricanes on coastal communities and industries has become a growing concern in recent decades. Consequently, utilizing products from existing ocean observing platforms, ocean modeling forecasts and satellite data helps to identify the effects of individual storms on the northern Gulf of Mexico. Using data from the jointly-operated United States Geological Survey and Mississippi Department of Marine Resources (USGS-MDMR) hydrological stations, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gages, and the Central Gulf of Mexico Ocean Observing System (CenGOOS) high frequency radar (HFR) network, we tracked temperature, salinity, water level and surface current changes in the Mississippi Sound and Bight during June 2017. We performed time series analyses and compared conditions during the buildup and passage of tropical storm Cindy to climatological values as well as to satellite observations and results from a regional application of the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Elevated salinities proceeded Cindy's landfall on June 22, 2017, while anomalously fresh water marked all Mississippi Sound stations afterwards. Onshore surface currents dominated the Mississippi Bight, and current speeds exceeded more than four times the climatological average in the southeastern Bight. Indeed, regions of enhanced current speeds were observed throughout the month of June 2017. Tidal ranges in the Mississippi Sound were on average half a meter higher than predicted, and Shell Beach (Louisiana) and the Bay Waveland Yacht Club (Mississippi) saw extended periods where tides exceeded one meter above predicted values. These results help to quantify the tidal inundation caused by Cindy but also illustrate the massive riverine discharge driven by the storm's precipitation. Model results provide information on areas of the study region not covered by measurements; additionally, comparing observations to model products helps estimate model effectiveness for storm events. Though Cindy never became a hurricane, the storm caused extensive and widespread coastal flooding, strong surface currents and salinity fluctuations in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

The probability forecast evaluation of hazard and storm wind over the territories of Russia and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, E. V.

2012-04-01

The results of the probability forecast methods of summer storm and hazard wind over territories of Russia and Europe are submitted at this paper. These methods use the hydrodynamic-statistical model of these phenomena. The statistical model was developed for the recognition of the situation involving these phenomena. For this perhaps the samples of the values of atmospheric parameters (n=40) for the presence and for the absence of these phenomena of storm and hazard wind were accumulated. The compressing of the predictors space without the information losses was obtained by special algorithm (k=7<19m/s, the values of 65%24m/s, the values of 75%29m/s or the area of the tornado and strong squalls. The evaluation of this probability forecast was provided by criterion of Brayer. The estimation was successful and was equal for the European part of Russia B=0,37. The application of the probability forecast of storm and hazard winds allows to mitigate the economic losses when the errors of the first and second kinds of storm wind categorical forecast are not so small. A lot of examples of the storm wind probability forecast are submitted at this report.

Microgrid Utilities for Rural Electrification in East Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Nathaniel J.

Expanding access to electricity is central to development in East Africa but massive increases in investment are required to achieve universal access. Private sector participation in electrification is essential to meeting electricity access targets. Policy makers have acknowledged that grid extension in many remote rural areas is not as cost effective as decentralized alternatives such as microgrids. Microgrid companies have been unable to scale beyond pilot projects due in part to challenges in raising capital for a business model that is perceived to be risky. This thesis aims to identify and quantify the primary sources of investment risk in microgrid utilities and study ways to mitigate these risks to make these businesses more viable. Two modeling tools have been developed to this end. The Stochastic Techno-Economic Microgrid Model (STEMM) models the technical and financial performance of microgrid utilities using uncertain and dynamic inputs to permit explicit modeling of financial risk. This model is applied in an investment risk assessment and case study in Rwanda. Key findings suggest that the most important drivers of risk are fuel prices, foreign exchange rates, demand for electricity, and price elasticity of demand for electricity. The relative importance of these factors is technology dependent with demand uncertainty figuring stronger for solar and high solar penetration hybrid systems and fuel prices driving risk in diesel power and low solar penetration hybrid systems. Considering uncertainty in system sizing presents a tradeoff whereby a decrease in expected equity return decreases downside risk. High solar penetration systems are also found to be more attractive to lenders. The second modeling tool leverages electricity consumption and demographic data from four microgrids in Tanzania to forecast demand for electricity in newly electrified communities. Using statistical learning techniques, improvements in prediction performance was achieved over the historical mean baseline. I have also identified important predictors in estimating electricity consumption of newly connected customers. These include tariff structures and prices, pre- connection sources of electricity and lighting, levels of spending on electricity services and airtime, and pre-connection appliance ownership. Prior exposure to electricity, disposable income, and price are dominant factors in estimating demand.

Morphodynamic Modeling Using The SToRM Computational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simoes, F.

2016-12-01

The framework of the work presented here is the open source SToRM (System for Transport and River Modeling) eco-hydraulics modeling system, which is one of the models released with the iRIC hydraulic modeling graphical software package (http://i-ric.org/). SToRM has been applied to the simulation of various complex environmental problems, including natural waterways, steep channels with regime transition, and rapidly varying flood flows with wetting and drying fronts. In its previous version, however, channel bed was treated as static and the ability of simulating sediment transport rates or bed deformation was not included. The work presented here reports SToRM's newly developed extensions to expand the system's capability to calculate morphological changes in alluvial river systems. The sediment transport module of SToRM has been developed based on the general recognition that meaningful advances depend on physically solid formulations and robust and accurate numerical solution methods. The basic concepts of mass and momentum conservation are used, where the feedback mechanisms between the flow of water, the sediment in transport, and the bed changes are directly incorporated in the governing equations used in the mathematical model. This is accomplished via a non-capacity transport formulation based on the work of Cao et al. [Z. Cao et al., "Non-capacity or capacity model for fluvial sediment transport," Water Management, 165(WM4):193-211, 2012], where the governing equations are augmented with source/sink terms due to water-sediment interaction. The same unsteady, shock-capturing numerical schemes originally used in SToRM were adapted to the new physics, using a control volume formulation over unstructured computational grids. The presentation will include a brief overview of these methodologies, and the result of applications of the model to a number of relevant physical test cases with movable bed, where computational results are compared to experimental data.

Emergent Behavior of Coupled Barrier Island - Resort Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNamara, D. E.; Werner, B. T.

2004-12-01

Barrier islands are attractive sites for resorts. Natural barrier islands experience beach erosion and island overwash during storms, beach accretion and dune building during inter-storm periods, and migration up the continental shelf as sea level rises. Beach replenishment, artificial dune building, seawalls, jetties and groins have been somewhat effective in protecting resorts against erosion and overwash during storms, but it is unknown how the coupled system will respond to long-term sea level rise. We investigate coupled barrier island - resort systems using an agent-based model with three components: natural barrier islands divided into a series of alongshore cells; resorts controlled by markets for tourism and hotel purchases; and coupling via storm damage to resorts and resort protection by government agents. Modeled barrier islands change by beach erosion, island overwash and inlet cutting during storms, and beach accretion, tidal delta growth and dune and vegetation growth between storms. In the resort hotel market, developer agents build hotels and hotel owning agents purchase them using predictions of future revenue and property appreciation, with the goal of maximizing discounted utility. In the tourism market, hotel owning agents set room rental prices to maximize profit and tourist agents choose vacation destinations maximizing a utility based on beach width, price and word-of-mouth. Government agents build seawalls, groins and jetties, and widen the beach and build up dunes by adding sand to protect resorts from storms, enhance beach quality, and maximize resort revenue. Results indicate that barrier islands and resorts evolve in a coupled manner to resort size saturation, with resorts protected against small-to-intermediate-scale storms under fairly stable sea level. Under extended, rapidly rising sea level, protection measures enhance the effect of large storms, leading to emergent behavior in the form of limit cycles or barrier submergence, depending on the relative rates of resort recovery from storms and sea level rise. The model is applied to Ocean City, Maryland and neighboring undeveloped Assateague Island National Seashore. Supported by the National Science Foundation, Geology and Paleontology Program, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

Precipitation data considerations for evaluating subdaily changes in rainless periods due to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Quantifying magnitudes and frequencies of rainless times between storms (TBS), or storm occurrence, is required for generating continuous sequences of precipitation for modeling inputs to small watershed models for conservation studies. Two parameters characterize TBS, minimum TBS (MTBS) and averag...

Development of the hard and soft constraints based optimisation model for unit sizing of the hybrid renewable energy system designed for microgrid applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sundaramoorthy, Kumaravel

2017-02-01

The hybrid energy systems (HESs) based electricity generation system has become a more attractive solution for rural electrification nowadays. Economically feasible and technically reliable HESs are solidly based on an optimisation stage. This article discusses about the optimal unit sizing model with the objective function to minimise the total cost of the HES. Three typical rural sites from southern part of India have been selected for the application of the developed optimisation methodology. Feasibility studies and sensitivity analysis on the optimal HES are discussed elaborately in this article. A comparison has been carried out with the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewable optimisation model for three sites. The optimal HES is found with less total net present rate and rate of energy compared with the existing method

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

Treesearch

Jennifer A Holm; Skip J Van Bloem; Guy R Larocque; Herman H Shugart

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical...

Ionospheric Behavior During the First Few Hours of Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mannucci, Anthony J.; Crowley, Geoff; Tsurutani, Bruce; Fuller-Rowell, Tim

2006-01-01

The behavior of the ionosphere during the first few hours of intense geomagnetic storms is presented. The topics include: 1) TEC Modification; 2) JASON TEC (1336 km altitude); 3) Multiple Storms; 4) CHAMP (greater than 400 km) November 20, 2003; 5) November 20, 1PM LT, Ground; 6) Role of Modeling; and 7) Composition-related increase.

Gauging Through the Crowd: A Crowd-Sourcing Approach to Urban Rainfall Measurement and Storm Water Modeling Implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling

2017-11-01

Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.

Modelling and in-situ measurements of intense currents during a winter storm in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW Mediterranean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaud, Héloïse; Leredde, Yann; Estournel, Claude; Berthebaud, Éric; Marsaleix, Patrick

2013-09-01

While oceanic circulation in the Gulf of Lion (GoL) has often been studied in calm weather or with northerly winds (Tramontane or Mistral) through observations and numerical circulation models, few studies have focused on southeasterly storm events. Yet, correct representation of the circulation during storms is crucial if the suspension of sediments is to be correctly modelled throughout the Gulf. The purpose of this paper is to describe the hydrodynamics in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW of the GoL) during the storm of 18 February 2007 by using a set of data from an ADCP station placed at a depth of 65 m on the sea bed off the coast at Sète, supplemented by the ocean circulation model SYMPHONIE. This storm was characterized by a moderate south-easterly wind (15 m . s-1) and waves of up to 5 m of significant height at its apex. At the ADCP, strong currents of up to 0.8 m . s-1 near the surface and 0.5 m . s-1 near the bottom were recorded, parallel to the coast, flowing towards the south-west. The simulated currents were widely underestimated, even taking the effect of waves into account in the model. It was suspected that the representation of the wind in the atmospheric model was an underestimation. A new simulation was therefore run with an arbitrarily chosen stronger wind and its results were in much better agreement with the measurements. A simplified theoretical analysis successfully isolated the wind-induced processes, responsible for the strong currents measured during the apex and the strong vertical shear that occurred at the beginning of the storm. These processes were: 1/ the barotropic geostrophic current induced by a wind parallel to the coast and 2/ the Ekman spiral. The duration of the storm (about 36 h at the apex) explains the continuous increase of the current as predicted by the theory. The frictionally induced Ekman transport explains the current shear in the surface layer in the rising stage of the storm, and the addition of high waves and strong wind at the apex is more in favour of strong vertical mixing in the surface layer.

Effects of wave-induced forcing on a circulation model of the North Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staneva, Joanna; Alari, Victor; Breivik, Øyvind; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Mogensen, Kristian

2017-04-01

The effect of wind waves on water level and currents during two storms in the North Sea is investigated using a high-resolution NEMO model forced with fluxes and fields from a high-resolution wave model. The additional terms accounting for wave-current interaction that are considered in this study are the Stokes-Coriolis force and the sea-state dependent energy and momentum fluxes. The individual and collective role of these processes is quantified and the results are compared with a control run without wave effects as well as against current and water level measurements from coastal stations. We find a better agreement with observations when the circulation model is forced by sea-state dependent fluxes, especially in extreme events. The two extreme events, the storm Christian (25-27 October 2013), and about a month later, the storm Xaver (5-7 December 2013), induce different wave and surge conditions over the North Sea. Including the wave effects in the circulation model for the storm Xaver raises the modelled surge by more than 40 cm compared with the control run in the German Bight area. For the storm Christian, a difference of 20-30 cm in the surge level between the wave-forced and the stand-alone ocean model is found over the whole southern part of the North Sea. Moreover, the modelled vertical velocity profile fits the observations very well when the wave forcing is accounted for. The contribution of wave-induced forcing has been quantified indicating that this represents an important mechanism for improving water level and current predictions.

Impact of Langmuir Turbulence on Upper Ocean Response to Hurricane Edouard: Model and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blair, A.; Ginis, I.; Hara, T.; Ulhorn, E.

2017-12-01

Tropical cyclone intensity is strongly affected by the air-sea heat flux beneath the storm. When strong storm winds enhance upper ocean turbulent mixing and entrainment of colder water from below the thermocline, the resulting sea surface temperature cooling may reduce the heat flux to the storm and weaken the storm. Recent studies suggest that this upper ocean turbulence is strongly affected by different sea states (Langmuir turbulence), which are highly complex and variable in tropical cyclone conditions. In this study, the upper ocean response under Hurricane Edouard (2014) is investigated using a coupled ocean-wave model with and without an explicit sea state dependent Langmuir turbulence parameterization. The results are compared with in situ observations of sea surface temperature and mixed layer depth from AXBTs, as well as satellite sea surface temperature observations. Overall, the model results of mixed layer deepening and sea surface temperature cooling under and behind the storm are consistent with observations. The model results show that the effects of sea state dependent Langmuir turbulence can be significant, particularly on the mixed layer depth evolution. Although available observations are not sufficient to confirm such effects, some observed trends suggest that the sea state dependent parameterization might be more accurate than the traditional (sea state independent) parameterization.

East China Sea Storm Surge Modeling and Visualization System: the Typhoon Soulik case.

PubMed

Deng, Zengan; Zhang, Feng; Kang, Linchong; Jiang, Xiaoyi; Jin, Jiye; Wang, Wei

2014-01-01

East China Sea (ECS) Storm Surge Modeling System (ESSMS) is developed based on Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Case simulation is performed on the Typhoon Soulik, which landed on the coastal region of Fujian Province, China, at 6 pm of July 13, 2013. Modeling results show that the maximum tide level happened at 6 pm, which was also the landing time of Soulik. This accordance may lead to significant storm surge and water level rise in the coastal region. The water level variation induced by high winds of Soulik ranges from -0.1 to 0.15 m. Water level generally increases near the landing place, in particular on the left hand side of the typhoon track. It is calculated that 0.15 m water level rise in this region can cause a submerge increase of ~0.2 km(2), which could be catastrophic to the coastal environment and the living. Additionally, a Globe Visualization System (GVS) is realized on the basis of World Wind to better provide users with the typhoon/storm surge information. The main functions of GVS include data indexing, browsing, analyzing, and visualization. GVS is capable of facilitating the precaution and mitigation of typhoon/storm surge in ESC in combination with ESSMS.

Forecast for the Remainder of the Leonid Storm Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jenniskens, Peter; DeVincenzi, Donald L. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The dust trails of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle lead to Leonid storms on Earth, threatening satellites in orbit. We present a new model that accounts in detail for the observed properties of dust tails evolved by the comet at previous oppositions. The prediction model shows the 1767-dust trail closer to Earth's orbit in 2001 than originally thought; increasing expected peak rates for North America observers. Predictions for the 2002 storms are less affected. We demonstrate that the observed shower profiles can be understood as a projection of the comet lightcurve.

Wind Energy: A Maturing Power Supply Possibility.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petersen, Erik Lundtang; And Others

1987-01-01

Suggests that wind energy for electrification will prove to be an appropriate technology with very positive socioeconomic benefits, especially in developing countries. Provides examples of projects conducted by a Danish wind research laboratory. (TW)

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Houston Energizes Deployment of Plug-In

Science.gov Websites

and other pollutant emissions: buildings and structures, mobile sources, and waste (also read more recent reports). Vehicle electrification became a key focus of mobile source emissions-reduction

Segmentally structured disk triboelectric nanogenerator

DOEpatents

Wang, Zhong Lin; Zhu, Guang; Lin, Long; Wang, Sihong; Chen, Jun

2016-11-01

A generator includes a disc shaped first unit, a disc shaped second unit and an axle. The first unit includes a substrate layer, a double complementary electrode layer and an electrification material layer. The electrode layer includes a first electrode member and a second electrode member. The first electrode member includes evenly spaced apart first electrode legs extending inwardly. The second electrode member is complementary in shape to the first electrode member. The legs of the first electrode member and the second electrode member are interleaved with each other and define a continuous gap therebetween. The electrification material includes a first material that is in a first position on the triboelectric series. The second unit defines elongated openings and corresponding elongated leg portions, and includes a second material that is at a second position on a triboelectric series, different than the first position.

“Capacitive Sensor” to Measure Flow Electrification and Prevent Electrostatic Hazards

PubMed Central

Paillat, Thierry; Touchard, Gerard; Bertrand, Yves

2012-01-01

At a solid/liquid interface, physico-chemical phenomena occur that lead to the separation of electrical charges, establishing a zone called electrical double layer. The convection of one part of these charges by the liquid flow is the cause of the flow electrification phenomenon which is suspected of being responsible of incidents in the industry. The P' Institute of Poitiers University and CNRS has developed an original sensor called “capacitive sensor” that allows the characterization of the mechanisms involved in the generation, accumulation and transfer of charges. As an example, this sensor included in the design of high power transformers, could easily show the evolution of electrostatic charge generation developed during the operating time of the transformer and, therefore, point out the operations leading to electrostatic hazards and, then, monitor the transformer to prevent such risks. PMID:23202162