44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

44 CFR 65.11 - Evaluation of sand dunes in mapping coastal flood hazard areas.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... storm-induced dune erosion potential in its determination of coastal flood hazards and risk mapping... base flood storm surges and associated wave action where the cross-sectional area of the primary... storm surges and associated wave action. [53 FR 16279, May 6, 1988] ...

The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with the critical information they need to respond quickly and efficiently and to increase public safety and mitigate damage associated with powerful coastal storms. For instance, high resolution local models will predict detailed wave heights, breaking patterns, and current strengths for use in warning systems for harbor-mouth navigation and densely populated coastal regions where beach safety is threatened. The offline applications are intended to equip coastal managers with the information needed to manage and allocate their resources effectively to protect sections of coast that may be most vulnerable to future severe storms.

Down to Earth with an electric hazard from space

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Bedrosian, Paul A.; Schultz, Adam

2017-01-01

In reaching across traditional disciplinary boundaries, solid-Earth geophysicists and space physicists are forging new collaborations to map magnetic-storm hazards for electric-power grids. Future progress in evaluation storm time geoelectric hazards will come primarily through monitoring, surveys, and modeling of related data.

UCAR group urges STORM program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richman, Barbara T.

A blue-ribbon panel of scientists has proposed a decade-long, $1 billion program to improve forecasting operations and research of regional and local hazardous weather. The panel, appointed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), believes that the program could reduce the $20-billion annual cost of damage from severe weather by $1 billion per year.The primary aim of the program is to ‘enable weather services, public and private, to observe and predict stormscale weather phenomena— such as squall lines, thunderstorms, flash floods, local heavy snows, or tornadoes—with the accuracy and reliability to protect the public, serve the national economy, and meet defense requirements,’ as explained in the report, The National STORM (Stormscale Operational and Research Meteorology) Program: A Call to Action. Stormscale phenomena also include nonviolent weather: freezing rain, dense ground fog, low-lying clouds that disrupt ground or air traffic, persistent temperature inversions, and strong nocturnal cooling that may produce killing frost.

National Dam Safety Program. Potake Lake Dam (Inventory Number N.Y. 970), Passaic River Basin, Lower Hudson River Area, Rockland County, New York. Phase I Inspection Report,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-08-14

facilitate thedischarge of storm flows. 2. The animal burrows, depressions , and tire ruts onthe crest of the dam should be filled, compacted and seeded. 3...storm flows. 2. The animal burrows, depressions , and tire ruts on the crest of the dam should be filled, compacted, and seeded...defined by the Recommended Guidelines for Safety Inspection of Dams (Reference 13, Appendix D). d. Hazard Classifications - Cranberry Lake Dam is one mile

Mapping Coastal Flood Zones for the National Flood Insurance Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlton, D.; Cook, C. L.; Weber, J.

2004-12-01

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created by Congress in 1968, and significantly amended in 1973 to reduce loss of life and property caused by flooding, reduce disaster relief costs caused by flooding and make Federally backed flood insurance available to property owners. These goals were to be achieved by requiring building to be built to resist flood damages, guide construction away from flood hazards, and transferring the cost of flood losses from taxpayers to policyholders. Areas subject to flood hazards were defined as those areas that have a probability greater than 1 percent of being inundated in any given year. Currently over 19,000 communities participate in the NFIP, many of them coastal communities subject to flooding from tides, storm surge, waves, or tsunamis. The mapping of coastal hazard areas began in the early 1970's and has been evolving ever since. At first only high tides and storm surge were considered in determining the hazardous areas. Then, after significant wave caused storm damage to structures outside of the mapped hazard areas wave hazards were also considered. For many years FEMA has had Guidelines and Specifications for mapping coastal hazards for the East Coast and the Gulf Coast. In September of 2003 a study was begun to develop similar Guidelines and Specifications for the Pacific Coast. Draft Guidelines and Specifications will be delivered to FEMA by September 30, 2004. During the study tsunamis were identified as a potential source of a 1 percent flood event on the West Coast. To better understand the analytical results, and develop adequate techniques to estimate the magnitude of a tsunami with a 1 percent probability of being equaled or exceeded in any year, a pilot study has begun at Seaside Oregon. Both the onshore velocity and the resulting wave runup are critical functions for FEMA to understand and potentially map. The pilot study is a cooperative venture between NOAA and USGS that is partially funded by both agencies and by FEMA. The results of the pilot study will help FEMA determine when tsunamis should be considered in mapping coastal hazards, how to predict their impact, how they should be mapped and possibly the construction standards for zones mapped as having a 1 percent or greater chance of suffering a tsunami.

76 FR 47221 - Ohio; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-04

... determined that the damage in certain areas of the State of Ohio resulting from severe storms and flooding... apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. (The following Catalog of Federal... of a major disaster for the State of Ohio (FEMA-4002-DR), dated July 13, 2011, and related...

Disseminating Landslide Hazard Information for California Local Government

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.

2010-12-01

Since 1969, the California Geological Survey has produced numerous maps showing landslide features and delineating potential slope-stability problem areas. These maps have been provided to local governments to encourage consideration of landslide hazards in planning and development decisions. Maps produced from 1986 through 1995 under the Landslide Hazard Mapping Act were advisory only, and their use by local government was never consistent. By contrast, maps of Zones of Required Investigation for seismically induced landslides produced under the Seismic Hazard Zoning Act since 1997 come with detailed guidelines and legal requirements. A legislative act that required landslide hazards be mapped and hazard maps disseminated to local government proved ineffective in landslide hazard mitigation. A later act with requirements that the hazard zone maps be used by local government proved more effective. Planning scenarios have proven to be an effective way of transmitting scientific information about natural hazards to emergency response professionals. Numerous earthquake planning scenarios have been prepared and used as the basis for emergency response exercises. An advantage of scenarios that include loss estimates is that the effects can be put in units of measure that everyone understands, principally deaths and dollars. HAZUS software available from FEMA allows calculation of losses for earthquake scenarios, but similar methods for landslides have not been developed. As part of the USGS Multi-Hazard Demonstration Project, we have estimated the landslide losses for a major west-coast winter storm scenario by developing a system based loosely on HAZUS. Data on landslide damage in past storms has been sparse and inconsistent, but a few data sets are available. The most detailed and complete available data on landslide damage was gathered by the City of Los Angeles following the 1978 storms. We extrapolate from that data to the entire state by first generalizing a landslide susceptibility map to give a single value of susceptibility for each census tract. We then calculated the loss ratio, the cost of landslide damage from the 1978 storms divided by the value of light wood frame structures in the census tract. The comparison suggests three general categories of damage: tracts with low landslide susceptibility have no landslide damage: tracts with moderate susceptibility have loss ratios of about 0.016%: and tracts with high susceptibility have loss ratios of 0.096%. Using these values, the susceptibility map becomes a landslide loss ratio map for the average storm intensity and landslide vulnerability of Los Angeles in 1978. Generalization to other storm intensities uses differences in storm intensity and landslide damage data from the 1982 storm in the Bay Area. In Santa Cruz County, that storm had a recurrence interval of over 100 years, and over 3 times the damage as our projection from the 1978 data. In Sonoma County, that storm had a recurrence interval of only 10 years and damage that was only 2% of our projection. If a relationship between storm intensity and the projections from the 1978 Los Angeles data can be developed, we may be able to estimate landslide losses for any projected storm intensity.

Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, J. T.

2015-12-01

Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

Lightning attachment patterns and flight conditions for storm hazards, 1980

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.; Keyser, G. L., Jr.; Deal, P. L.

1982-01-01

As part of the NASA Langley Research Center Storm Hazards Program, 69 thunderstorm pentrations were made in 1980 with an F-106B airplane in order to record direct strike lightning data and the associated flight conditions. Ground based weather radar measurements in conjunction with these penetrations were made by NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory in Oklahoma and by NASA Wallops Flight Center in Virginia. In 1980, the airplane received 10 direct lightning strikes; in addition, lightning transient data were recorded from 6 nearby flashes. Following each flight, the airplane was thoroughly inspected for evidence of lightning attachment, and the individual lightning attachment points were plotted on isometric projections of the airplane to identify swept flash patterns. This report presents pilot descriptions of the direct strikes to the airplane, shows the strike attachment patterns that were found, and discusses the implications of the patterns with respect to aircraft protection design. The flight conditions are also included. Finally, the lightning strike scenarios for three U.S. Air Force F-106A airplanes which were struck during routine operations are given in the appendix to this paper.

South Texas coastal classification maps - Mansfield Channel to the Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Peterson, Russell L.

2006-01-01

The Nation's rapidly growing coastal population requires reliable information regarding the vulnerability of coastal regions to storm impacts. This has created a need for classifying coastal lands and evaluating storm-hazard vulnerability. Government officials and resource managers responsible for dealing with natural hazards also need accurate assessments of potential storm impacts in order to make informed decisions before, during, and after major storm events. Both economic development and coastal-damage mitigation require integrated models of storm parameters, hazard vulnerability, and expected coastal responses. Thus, storm-hazard vulnerability assessments constitute one of the fundamental components of forecasting storm impacts. Each year as many as 10 to 12 hurricanes and tropical storms will be the focus of national attention. Of particular interest are intense hurricanes (Categories 3 to 5 of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that have the potential to cause substantial economic and environmental damage to the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United States. These coastal regions include some of the largest metropolitan areas in the country and they continue to experience rapid population growth. Based on media reports, there is a general lack of public knowledge regarding how different coastal segments will respond to the same storm or how the same coastal segment will respond differently depending on storm conditions. A primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk. A secondary purpose is to develop a broad coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States.

77 FR 37915 - Kansas; Major Disaster Declaration and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-06-25

... to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. The following Catalog of Federal... Presidential declaration of a major disaster for the State of Kansas (FEMA-4063-DR), dated May 24, 2012, and... have determined that the damage in certain areas of the State of Kansas resulting from severe storms...

Geoelectric hazard assessment: the differences of geoelectric responses during magnetic storms within common physiographic zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuttler, Stephen W.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Swidinsky, Andrei

2018-03-01

Geomagnetic field data obtained through the INTERMAGNET program are convolved with with magnetotelluric surface impedance from four EarthScope USArray sites to estimate the geoelectric variations throughout the duration of a magnetic storm. A duration of time from June 22, 2016, to June 25, 2016, is considered which encompasses a magnetic storm of moderate size recorded at the Brandon, Manitoba and Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetic observatories over 3 days. Two impedance sites were chosen in each case which represent different responses while being within close geographic proximity and within the same physiographic zone. This study produces estimated time series of the geoelectric field throughout the duration of a magnetic storm, providing an understanding of how the geoelectric field differs across small geographic distances within the same physiographic zone. This study shows that the geoelectric response of two sites within 200 km of one another can differ by up to two orders of magnitude (4484 mV/km at one site and 41 mV/km at another site 125 km away). This study demonstrates that the application of uniform 1-dimensional conductivity models of the subsurface to wide geographic regions is insufficient to predict the geoelectric hazard at a given site. This necessitates that an evaluation of the 3-dimensional conductivity distribution at a given location is necessary to produce a reliable estimation of how the geoelectric field evolves over the course of a magnetic storm.

Geoelectric hazard assessment: the differences of geoelectric responses during magnetic storms within common physiographic zones

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cuttler, Stephen W.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Swidinsky, Andrei

2018-01-01

Geomagnetic field data obtained through the INTERMAGNET program are convolved with with magnetotelluric surface impedance from four EarthScope USArray sites to estimate the geoelectric variations throughout the duration of a magnetic storm. A duration of time from June 22, 2016, to June 25, 2016, is considered which encompasses a magnetic storm of moderate size recorded at the Brandon, Manitoba and Fredericksburg, Virginia magnetic observatories over 3 days. Two impedance sites were chosen in each case which represent different responses while being within close geographic proximity and within the same physiographic zone. This study produces estimated time series of the geoelectric field throughout the duration of a magnetic storm, providing an understanding of how the geoelectric field differs across small geographic distances within the same physiographic zone. This study shows that the geoelectric response of two sites within 200 km of one another can differ by up to two orders of magnitude (4484 mV/km at one site and 41 mV/km at another site 125 km away). This study demonstrates that the application of uniform 1-dimensional conductivity models of the subsurface to wide geographic regions is insufficient to predict the geoelectric hazard at a given site. This necessitates that an evaluation of the 3-dimensional conductivity distribution at a given location is necessary to produce a reliable estimation of how the geoelectric field evolves over the course of a magnetic storm.

Direct-strike lightning photographs, swept-flash attachment patterns, and flight conditions for storm hazards 1982

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zaepfel, K. P.; Fisher, B. D.; Ott, M. S.

1985-01-01

As part of the NASA Langley Research Center Storm Hazards Program, 241 thunderstorm penetrations were made in 1982 with an F-106B airplane in order to record direct-strike lightning data and the associated flight conditions. During these penetrations, the airplane received 156 direct lightning strikes; in addition, lightning transient data were recorded from 26 nearby lightning flashes. The tests were conducted within 150 nautical miles of Hampton, Virginia, assisted by ground-based weather-radar guidance from the NASA Wallops Flight Facility. The photographs of the lightning attachments taken from two onboard 16-mm color movie cameras and the associated strike attachment patterns are presented. A table of the flight conditions recorded at the time of each lightning event, and a table in which the data are cross-referenced with the previously published lightning electromagnetic waveform data are included.

Hazards of geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herzog, D.C.

1992-01-01

Geomagnetic storms are large and sometimes rapid fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field that are related to disturbances on the Sun's surface. Although it is not widely recognized, these transient magnetic disturbances can be a significant hazard to people and property. Many of us know that the intensity of the auroral lights increases during magnetic storms, but few people realize that these storms can also cause massive power outages, interrupt radio communications and satellite operations, increase corrosion in oil and gas pipelines, and lead to spuriously high rejection rates in the manufacture of sensitive electronic equipment. 

Comparison of wind velocity in thunderstorms determined from measurements by a ground-based Doppler radar and an F-106B airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usry, J. W.; Dunham, R. E., Jr.; Lee, J. T.

1985-01-01

As a part of the NASA Storm Hazards Program, the wind velocity in several thunderstorms was measured by an F-106B instrumented airplane and a ground-based Doppler radar. The results of five airplane penetrations of two storms in 1980 and six penetrations of one storm in 1981 are given. Comparisons were made between the radial wind velocity components measured by the radar and the airplane. The correlation coefficients for the 1980 data and part of the 1981 data were 0.88 and 0.78, respectively. It is suggested that larger values for these coefficients may be obtained by improving the experimental technique and in particular by slaving the radar to track the airplane during such tests.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, Eugene; Pierce, Julia; Mahat, Vinod

This project is a part of the Regional Resiliency Assessment Program, led by the Department of Homeland Security, to address flooding hazards of regional significance for Portland, Maine. The pilot study was performed by Argonne National Laboratory to identify differences in spatial rainfall distributions between the radar-derived and rain-gauge rainfall datasets and to evaluate their impacts on urban flooding. The flooding impact analysis utilized a high-resolution 2-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic model (15 ft by 15 ft) incorporating the buildings, streets, stream channels, hydraulic structures, an existing city storm drain system, and assuming a storm surge along the coast coincident with amore » heavy rainfall event. Two historical storm events from April 16, 2007, and September 29, 2015, were selected for evaluation. The radar-derived rainfall data at a 200-m resolution provide spatially-varied rainfall patterns with a wide range of intensities for each event. The resultant maximum flood depth using data from a single rain gauge within the study area could be off (either under- or over-estimated) by more than 10% in the 2007 storm and more than 60% in the 2015 storm compared to the radar-derived rainfall data. The model results also suggest that the inundation area with a flow depth at or greater than 0.5 ft could reach 11% (2007 storm) and 17% (2015 storm) of the total study area, respectively. The lowland areas within the neighborhoods of North Deering, East Deering, East and West Baysides and northeastern Parkside, appear to be more vulnerable to the flood hazard in both storm events. The high-resolution 2-D hydrodynamic model with high-resolution radar-derived rainfall data provides an excellent tool for detailed urban flood analysis and vulnerability assessment. The model developed in this study could be potentially used to evaluate any proposed mitigation measures and optimize their effects in the future for Portland, ME.« less

1983 lightning, turbulence, wind shear, and Doppler radar studies at the National Severe Storms Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, J. T.

1984-01-01

As part of continuing research on aviation related weather hazards, numerous experiments were incorporated into the 1983 Spring Observation Program. This year's program was an abbreviated one because of commitments made to the development of the Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) project. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) P-3 Orion and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) RB-57B and U-2 were the main aircraft involved in the studies of lightning, wind shear, turbulence, and storm structure. A total of 14 flights were made by these aircraft during the period of May 16 through June 5, 1983. Aircraft instrumentation experiments are described, and resultant data sets available for research are detailed. Aircraft instrumentation and Doppler radar characteristics are detailed.

Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

2014-12-01

The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula were found to be more prone to experiencing wind and flood related hurricane hazards. Novel methodologies developed from this analysis can be adapted for further hurricane risk assessment on archeological sites.

Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

2018-06-01

Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

Stakeholder perspectives on land-use strategies for adapting to climate-change-enhanced coastal hazards: Sarasota, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent

2010-01-01

Sustainable land-use planning requires decision makers to balance community growth with resilience to natural hazards. This balance is especially difficult in many coastal communities where planners must grapple with significant growth projections, the persistent threat of extreme events (e.g., hurricanes), and climate-change-driven sea level rise that not only presents a chronic hazard but also alters the spatial extent of sudden-onset hazards such as hurricanes. We examine these stressors on coastal, long-term land-use planning by reporting the results of a one-day community workshop held in Sarasota County, Florida that included focus groups and participatory mapping exercises. Workshop participants reflected various political agendas and socioeconomic interests of five local knowledge domains: business, environment, emergency management and infrastructure, government, and planning. Through a series of alternating domain-specific focus groups and interactive plenary sessions, participants compared the county 2050 comprehensive land-use plan to maps of contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazard zones and projected storm-surge hazard zones enlarged by sea level rise scenarios. This interactive, collaborative approach provided each group of domain experts the opportunity to combine geographically-specific, scientific knowledge on natural hazards and climate change with local viewpoints and concerns. Despite different agendas, interests, and proposed adaptation strategies, there was common agreement among participants for the need to increase community resilience to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to explore adaptation strategies to combat the projected, enlarged storm-surge hazard zones.

Flood Losses Associated with Winter Storms in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ting, M.; Shimkus, C.

2015-12-01

Winter storms pose a number of hazards to coastal communities in the U.S. Northeast including heavy rain, snow, strong wind, cold temperatures, and flooding. These hazards can cause millions in property damages from one storm alone. This study addresses the impacts of winter storms from 2001 - 2012 on coastal counties in the U.S. Northeast and underscores the significant economic consequences extreme winter storms have on property. The analysis on the types of hazards (floods, strong wind, snow, etc.) and associated damage from the National Climatic Data Center Storm Events Database indicates that floods were responsible for the highest damages. This finding suggests that winter storm vulnerability could grow in the future as precipitation intensity increases and sea level rise exacerbate flood losses. Flood loss maps are constructed based on damage amount, which can be compared to the flood exposure maps constructed by the NOAA Office of Coastal Management. Interesting agreements and discrepancies exist between the two methods, which warrant further examination. Furthermore, flood losses often came from storms characterized as heavy precipitation storms and strong surge storms, and sometimes both, illustrating the compounding effect of flood risks in the region. While New Jersey counties experienced the most damage per unit area, there is no discernable connection between population density and damage amount, which suggests that societal impacts may rely less on population characteristics and more on infrastructure types and property values, which vary throughout the region.

A Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System: Development and Application in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Long, Di; Ma, Meihong; Hong, Yang

2016-04-01

Flash floods and landslides, triggered by storms, often interact and cause cascading effects on human lives and property. Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of these natural hazards. As one of the regions continuously affected by severe flash floods and landslides, Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, has a complex mountainous hydrometeorology and suffers from frequent heavy rainfalls from May through to late September. Taking Yunnan as a test-bed, this study proposed a Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System to progressively analysis and evaluate the risk of the multi-hazards based on multisource satellite remote sensing data. First, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 1h and maximum 6h amount) from the products of Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) were used as rainfall indicators to derive the StorM Hazard Index (SMHI). In this process, an integrated approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Information-Entropy theory was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Then, land cover and vegetation cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, soil type from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil map, and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were add as semi-static geo-topographical indicators to derive the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI). Furthermore, three more relevant landslide-controlling indicators, including elevation, slope angle and soil text were involved to derive the LandSlide Hazard Index (LSHI). Further inclusion of GDP, population and prevention measures as vulnerability indicators enabled to consecutively predict the risk of storm to flash flood and landslide, respectively. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the hazard indices show that the southeast of Yunnan has more possibility to encounter with storms than other parts, while the northeast of Yunnan are most susceptible to floods and landslides, which agrees with the distribution of observed flood and landslide events. Moreover, risks for the multi-hazards were classified into four categories. Results show a strong correlation between the distributions of flash flood prone and landslide-prone regions and also highlight the counties with high risk of storms (e.g., Funing and Malipo), flash floods (e.g., Gongshan and Yanjing) and landslides (e.g., Zhaotong and Luxi). Compared to other approaches, the Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System uses a straightforward yet useful indicator-based weighted linear combination method and could be a useful prototype in mapping characteristics of storm-triggered hazards for users at different administrative levels (e.g., catchment, town, county, province and even nation) in China.

Hazard analysis of landslides triggered by Typhoon Chata'an on July 2, 2002, in Chuuk State, Federated States of Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, Edwin L.; Reid, Mark E.; Michael, John A.

2004-01-01

More than 250 landslides were triggered across the eastern volcanic islands of Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia by torrential rainfall from tropical storm Chata?an on July 2, 2002. Landslides triggered during nearly 20 inches of rainfall in less than 24 hours caused 43 fatalities and the destruction or damage of 231 structures, including homes, schools, community centers, and medical dispensaries. Landslides also buried roads, crops, and water supplies. The landslides ranged in volume from a few cubic meters to more than 1 million cubic meters. Most of the failures began as slumps and transformed into debris flows, some of which traveled several hundred meters across coastal flatlands into populated areas. A landslide-inventory map produced after the storm shows that the island of Tonoas had the largest area affected by landslides, although the islands of Weno, Fefan, Etten, Uman, Siis, Udot, Eot, and Fanapanges also had significant landslides. Based on observations since the storm, we estimate the continuing hazard from landslides triggered by Chata?an to be relatively low. However, tropical storms and typhoons similar to Chata?an frequently develop in Micronesia and are likely to affect the islands of Chuuk in the future. To assess the landslide hazard from future tropical storms, we produced a hazard map that identifies landslide-source areas of high, moderate, and low hazard. This map can be used to identify relatively safe areas for relocating structures or establishing areas where people could gather for shelter in relative safety during future typhoons or tropical storms similar to Chata?an.

Natural Hazards Risk Reduction and the ARkStorm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Dettinger, M. D.; Ralph, F. M.

2016-12-01

The ARkStorm Scenario project began in 2008, led by the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (now Science Application for Risk Reduction) in an effort to innovate the application of science to reduce natural-hazard risk associated with large atmospheric-river (AR) storms on the West Coast of the US. The effort involved contributions from many federal, state and academic organizations including NOAA's Environmental Systems Laboratory. The ARkStorm project used new understanding of atmospheric river physics, combined with downscaled meteorological data from two recent ARs (in 1969 and 1986), to describe and model a prolonged sequence of back-to-back storms similar to those that bankrupted California in 1862. With this scientifically plausible (but not worst-case) scenario, the ARkStorm team engaged flood and levee experts to identify plausible flooding extents and durations, created a coastal-storm inundation model (CoSMoS), and California's first landslide susceptibility map, to better understand secondary meteorological and geophysical hazards (flood, wind, landslide, coastal erosion and inundation) across California. Physical damages to homes, infrastructure, agriculture, and the environment were then estimated to calculate the likely social and economic impact to California and the nation. Across California, property damage from the ARkStorm scenario was estimated to exceed 300 billion, mostly from flooding. Including damage and losses, lifeline damages and business interruptions, the total cost of an ARkStorm-sized series of storms came to nearly 725 billion, nearly three times the losses estimated from another SAFRR scenario describing a M7.8 earthquake in southern California. Thus, atmospheric rivers have the potential to be California's other "Big One." Since its creation, the ARkStorm scenario has been used in preparedness exercises by NASA, the US Navy, the State of California, the County of Ventura, and cities and counties in the Tahoe Basin and downstream into Nevada. These efforts have examined how large AR events could plausibly impact many aspects of society and environment, and how to avoid the worst of the disaster outcomes. The ARkStorm scenario will next be used in a climate extremes scenario for the U.S. Southwest.

Magnetic storms and induction hazards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Balch, Christopher

2014-01-01

Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earth's electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Québec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [Bolduc, 2002].

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e.g., price adjustments to redistribute scarce resources). A sensitivity analysis of the ARkStorm economic impact model explores the effects of 1) the magnitude of the shocks (e.g., flood damages to buildings and infrastructure, agricultural productivity, and lifeline service disruptions), 2) the sustainability of the economic resilience strategies, and 3) the amount, timing, and source of reconstruction funds. The inclusion of an economic analysis in ShakeOut and ARkStorm broadens the range of interest in the scenario results. For example, the relative contribution of ShakeOut economic shocks to business interruption losses emphasized the need to reduce the impacts of fire following earthquake and water service disruption. Based on the magnitude and duration of the economic impacts for the ARkStorm scenario, policy experts surmised that business interruption policy time elements would be exceeded and business interruptions would be largely unfunded calling attention to the need for innovative funding solutions. Finally, economic impact analyses inform the question of paying now to mitigate or paying more later to recover.

THE HAZARD OF CORPUSCULAR SOLAR RADIATION TO MANNED SPACEFLIGHT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Waddington, C.J.

BS>The presently available data on the storms'' of solar particles are used to compute the radiation dose that would be received by astronauts shielded by different thicknesses of material. It is shown that at least some of these storms represent a severe hazard to successful manned spaceflights. (auth)

Implementing Extreme Value Analysis in a Geospatial Workflow for Storm Surge Hazard Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catelli, J.; Nong, S.

2014-12-01

Gridded data of 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) storm surge flood elevations for the United States, Gulf of Mexico, and East Coast are critical to understanding this natural hazard. Storm surge heights were calculated across the study area utilizing SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model data for thousands of synthetic US landfalling hurricanes. Based on the results derived from SLOSH, a series of interpolations were performed using spatial analysis in a geographic information system (GIS) at both the SLOSH basin and the synthetic event levels. The result was a single grid of maximum flood elevations for each synthetic event. This project addresses the need to utilize extreme value theory in a geospatial environment to analyze coincident cells across multiple synthetic events. The results are 100-yr (1%) and 500-yr (0.2%) values for each grid cell in the study area. This talk details a geospatial approach to move raster data to SciPy's NumPy Array structure using the Python programming language. The data are then connected through a Python library to an outside statistical package like R to fit cell values to extreme value theory distributions and return values for specified recurrence intervals. While this is not a new process, the value behind this work is the ability to keep this process in a single geospatial environment and be able to easily replicate this process for other natural hazard applications and extreme event modeling.

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. These maps can also determine the best areas to build critical structures, or at least determine the level of protection of these structures should they be built in hazard areas. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate countermeasures for a given PSWS.

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards--Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2012-01-01

Sandy beaches provide a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During a hurricane, these changes can be large and sometimes catastrophic. High waves and storm surge act together to erode beaches and inundate low-lying lands, putting inland communities at risk. A decade of USGS research on storm-driven coastal change hazards has provided the data and modeling capabilities to identify areas of our coastline that are likely to experience extreme and potentially hazardous erosion during a hurricane. This report defines hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards for sandy beaches along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coastline. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that uses observations of beach morphology combined with sophisticated hydrodynamic models to predict how the coast will respond to the direct landfall of category 1-5 hurricanes. Hurricane-induced water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change: collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. As new beach morphology observations and storm predictions become available, this analysis will be updated to describe how coastal vulnerability to storms will vary in the future.

Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

2006-06-01

Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

The probability forecast evaluation of hazard and storm wind over the territories of Russia and Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perekhodtseva, E. V.

2012-04-01

The results of the probability forecast methods of summer storm and hazard wind over territories of Russia and Europe are submitted at this paper. These methods use the hydrodynamic-statistical model of these phenomena. The statistical model was developed for the recognition of the situation involving these phenomena. For this perhaps the samples of the values of atmospheric parameters (n=40) for the presence and for the absence of these phenomena of storm and hazard wind were accumulated. The compressing of the predictors space without the information losses was obtained by special algorithm (k=7<19m/s, the values of 65%24m/s, the values of 75%29m/s or the area of the tornado and strong squalls. The evaluation of this probability forecast was provided by criterion of Brayer. The estimation was successful and was equal for the European part of Russia B=0,37. The application of the probability forecast of storm and hazard winds allows to mitigate the economic losses when the errors of the first and second kinds of storm wind categorical forecast are not so small. A lot of examples of the storm wind probability forecast are submitted at this report.

StormReady in a Box: Enhancing NOAA's Presence in Schools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grondin, N. S.; Franks, C.

2015-12-01

The National Weather Service StormReady Supporter program exists to give schools, companies, TV stations, and other facilities the opportunity to earn recognition for their weather preparedness and awareness. Requirements to earn StormReady Supporter status include having a facility warning point, use of NOAA Weather Radios, and weather hazard Emergency Operation Plans. Despite the increasing importance of weather preparedness in schools, only 1.2% of Minnesota schools are deemed StormReady by the National Weather Service. It was determined that the major impedance for schools becoming StormReady Supporters is the lack of time for administrators to engage in anything "extra" beyond their listed duties. As part of a 2015 Hollings Scholar project, the StormReady in a Box concept was developed to remedy this, by empowering teachers and students to take charge and complete the StormReady Supporter application for their school. StormReady in a Box is a project developed for Junior High School students to learn about weather preparedness and to help their school acquire StormReady status. The project was designed to be relevant to the Minnesota State Education Standards in Science, be simple for teachers to do with their students, and most importantly, to be enjoyable for Junior High School age students to do. The project was also designed to enhance critical thinking skills and logical reasoning abilities, as they relate to the StormReady Supporter application. This presentation will present the overall rationale for the undertaking of this project, the creation of, and the logical next steps for the StormReady in a Box project.

Post-fire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek Fire near Hailey, central Idaho

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skinner, Kenneth D.

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed for debris-flow hazards in the 465 square-kilometer (115,000 acres) area burned by the 2013 Beaver Creek fire near Hailey in central Idaho. The burn area covers all or part of six watersheds and selected basins draining to the Big Wood River and is at risk of substantial post-fire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the Intermountain Region in Western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within the burn area and to estimate the same for analyzed drainage basins within the burn area. Input data for the empirical models included topographic parameters, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm (13 mm); (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm (19 mm); and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm (22 mm). Estimated debris-flow probabilities for drainage basins upstream of 130 selected basin outlets ranged from less than 1 to 78 percent with the probabilities increasing with each increase in storm magnitude. Probabilities were high in three of the six watersheds. For the 25-year storm, probabilities were greater than 60 percent for 11 basin outlets and ranged from 50 to 60 percent for an additional 12 basin outlets. Probability estimates for stream segments within the drainage network can vary within a basin. For the 25-year storm, probabilities for stream segments within 33 basins were higher than the basin outlet, emphasizing the importance of evaluating the drainage network as well as basin outlets. Estimated debris-flow volumes for the three modeled storms range from a minimal debris flow volume of 10 cubic meters [m3]) to greater than 100,000 m3. Estimated debris-flow volumes increased with basin size and distance downstream. For the 25-year storm, estimated debris-flow volumes were greater than 100,000 m3 for 4 basins and between 50,000 and 100,000 m3 for 10 basins. The debris-flow hazard rankings did not result in the highest hazard ranking of 5, indicating that none of the basins had a high probability of debris-flow occurrence and a high debris-flow volume estimate. The hazard ranking was 4 for one basin using the 10-year-recurrence storm model and for three basins using the 25-year-recurrence storm model. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where post-wildfire remediation efforts should take place within the 2- to 3-year period of increased erosional vulnerability.

A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

2010-12-01

Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community assets are located within ~230 m of a narrow beach behind a rip rap revetment. Clearly, any significant losses sustained during an extreme storm could be devastating to the community, and these impacts will likely be amplified in the future. This information is being used to inform land-use planners as well as coastal community residents and visitors about potential coastal change hazards in order to make communities more resistant to future extreme storm events as they are influenced by a changing climate.

NASA/MSFC FY-82 atmospheric processes research review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E. (Compiler)

1982-01-01

The NASA/MSFC FY-82 Atmospheric Processes Research Program was reviewed. The review covered research tasks in the areas of upper atmosphere, global weather, and severe storms and local weather. Also included was research on aviation safety environmental hazards. The research project summaries, in narrative outline form, supplied by the individual investigators together with the agenda and other information about the review are presented.

The 1981 current research on aviation weather (bibliography)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daniel, J.; Frost, W.

1982-01-01

Current and ongoing research programs related to various areas of aviation meteorology are presented. Literature searches of major abstract publications, were conducted. Research project managers of various government agencies involved in aviation meteorology research provided a list of current research project titles and managers, supporting organizations, performing organizations, the principal investigators, and the objectives. These are tabulated under the headings of advanced meteorological instruments, forecasting, icing, lightning and atmospheric electricity; fog, visibility, and ceilings; low level wind shear, storm hazards/severe storms, turbulence, winds, and ozone and other meteorological parameters. This information was reviewed and assembled into a bibliography providing a current readily useable source of information in the area of aviation meteorology.

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www.surgesymposium.org, organized by the WMO-IOC Joint technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, JCOMM) and following activities, that have been supported by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO through JCOMM. The paper also reviews the capabilities of storm surge models, and current status in using Earth Observation (EO) information for advancing storm surge application tools, and further, for improving operational forecasts and warning capability for coastal inundation. In this context, the plans and expected results of the ESA Storm Surge Project (2010-2011) will be introduced.

Programmatic Environmental Assessment (EA) for Minor Construction Projects at F. E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

water quality or increase storm water runoff. Adherence to all applicable local , state and federal laws regarding storm water mitigates any direct...during construction will mitigate any hazard. 7 .1.4 Water Resources: 7.1.4.1 Storm Water: New construction has the potential to degrade storm

Programmatic Environmental Assessment (EA) for Minor Construction Projects at F. E. Warren Air Force Base, Wyoming

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-08-07

water quality or increase storm water runoff. Adherence to all applicable local , state and federal laws regarding storm water mitigates any direct...during construction will mitigate any hazard. 7 .1.4 Water Resources: 7.1.4.1 Storm Water: New construction has the potential to degrade storm

NOAA Weather Radio - Alarms

Science.gov Websites

affected (usually by county), and the expiration time of the message. The Maximum message expiration time county), and the valid time period of the hazard. Other details, such as storm movement, storm spotter time in SAME vs. valid time period in voice message: For short-fuse hazards, such as a tornado warning

Waste-water characterization and hazardous-waste technical assistance survey, Mather AFB California. Final report, 28 November-9 December 1988

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Scott, S.P.; Hedgecock, N.S.

1989-10-01

Personnel from the AFOEHL conducted a waste-water characterization and hazardous-waste technical assistance survey at MAFB from 28 Nov to 9 Dec 1988. The scope of this survey was to characterize the waste-water, address hazardous-waste-management practices, and explore opportunities for hazardous waste minimization. The waste water survey team analyzed the base's industrial effluent, effluent from oil/water separators, and storm water. The team performed a shop-by-shop evaluation of chemical-waste-management practices. Survey results showed that MAFB needs to improve its hazardous-waste-management program. Recommendations for improvement include: (1) Collecting two additional grab samples on separate days from the hospital discharge. Analyze for EPA Methodmore » 601 to determine if the grab sample from the survey gives a true indication of what is being discharged. (2) Locate the source and prevent mercury from the hospital from discharging into the sanitary sewer. (3) Dilute the soaps used for cleaning at the Fuels Lab, Building 7060. (4) Investigate the source of chromium from the Photo Lab. (5) Clean out the sewer system manhole directly downgradient from the Photo Lab. (6) Locate the source of contamination in the West Ditch Outfall. (7) Reconnect the two oil/water separators that discharge into the storm sewerage system. (8) Investigate the source of methylene chloride coming on the base. (9) Investigate the source of mercury at Fuel Cell Repair, building 7005.« less

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the Cities of Oakland and Piedmont, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the cities of Oakland and Piedmont, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change.

Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska | Alaska Division of Geological &

Science.gov Websites

content Guide to Geologic Hazards in Alaska Glossary Coastal and river hazards image Coastal and river Storm surge Tsunami Earthquake related hazards image Earthquake related hazards Earthquake Earthquake Subsidence Surface fault rupture Tsunami Uplift Glacier hazards image Glacier hazards Avalanche Debris flow

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-12-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

HERA: A dynamic web application for visualizing community exposure to flood hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Jeanne M.; Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Ng, Peter; Jamieson, Matthew

2017-01-01

The Hazard Exposure Reporting and Analytics (HERA) dynamic web application was created to provide a platform that makes research on community exposure to coastal-flooding hazards influenced by sea level rise accessible to planners, decision makers, and the public in a manner that is both easy to use and easily accessible. HERA allows users to (a) choose flood-hazard scenarios based on sea level rise and storm assumptions, (b) appreciate the modeling uncertainty behind a chosen hazard zone, (c) select one or several communities to examine exposure, (d) select the category of population or societal asset, and (e) choose how to look at results. The application is designed to highlight comparisons between (a) varying levels of sea level rise and coastal storms, (b) communities, (c) societal asset categories, and (d) spatial scales. Through a combination of spatial and graphical visualizations, HERA aims to help individuals and organizations to craft more informed mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate-driven coastal hazards. This paper summarizes the technologies used to maximize the user experience, in terms of interface design, visualization approaches, and data processing.

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of simulated losses for this specific storm is very similar to historic loss reports. A comparison of wind gust speeds with simulated storm losses for all highly damaging winter storms in Switzerland since the late 19th century considered in this study shows that storm losses have been related primarily to population density (and distribution of values at risk, respectively) rather than hazardous wind speed.

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for assessing climate change-driven coastal hazards and socio-economic impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; O'Neill, Andrea; Wood, Nathan J.; Jones, Jeanne M.; Finzi Hart, Juliette; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick; Hayden, Maya; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Lovering, Jessica; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2018-01-01

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 ± 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

Flood Vulnerability Assessment Map

EIA Publications

Maps of energy infrastructure with real-time storm and emergency information by fuel type and by state. Flood hazard information from FEMA has been combined with EIA's energy infrastructure layers as a tool to help state, county, city, and private sector planners assess which key energy infrastructure assets are vulnerable to rising sea levels, storm surges, and flash flooding. Note that flood hazard layers must be zoomed-in to street level before they become visible.

Storms in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, John W.

2012-11-01

Introduction; The cast of characters; Vignettes of the storm; 1. Two kinds of weather; 2. The saga of the storm; 3. Weather stations in space; 4. Lights in the night: the signature of the storm; 5. A walking tour of the magnetosphere; 6. The sun: where it all begins; 7. Nowcasting and forecasting storms in space; 8. Technology and the risks from storms in space; 9. A conversation with Joe Allen; 10. Manned exploration and space weather hazards; 11. The present and future of space weather forecasting; Mathematical appendix. A closer look; Glossary; Figure captions.

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex, southwestern Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, Kristine L.; Dupree, Jean A.; Stevens, Michael R.

2013-01-01

This report presents a preliminary emergency assessment of the debris-flow hazards from drainage basins burned by the 2013 West Fork Fire Complex near South Fork in southwestern Colorado. Empirical models derived from statistical evaluation of data collected from recently burned basins throughout the intermountain western United States were used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence, potential volume of debris flows, and the combined debris-flow hazard ranking along the drainage network within and just downstream from the burned area, and to estimate the same for 54 drainage basins of interest within the perimeter of the burned area. Input data for the debris-flow models included topographic variables, soil characteristics, burn severity, and rainfall totals and intensities for a (1) 2-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 2-year storm; (2) 10-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 10-year storm; and (3) 25-year-recurrence, 1-hour-duration rainfall, referred to as a 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow probabilities at the pour points of the 54 drainage basins of interest ranged from less than 1 to 65 percent in response to the 2-year storm; from 1 to 77 percent in response to the 10-year storm; and from 1 to 83 percent in response to the 25-year storm. Twelve of the 54 drainage basins of interest have a 30-percent probability or greater of producing a debris flow in response to the 25-year storm. Estimated debris-flow volumes for all rainfalls modeled range from a low of 2,400 cubic meters to a high of greater than 100,000 cubic meters. Estimated debris-flow volumes increase with basin size and distance along the drainage network, but some smaller drainages also were predicted to produce substantial debris flows. One of the 54 drainage basins of interest had the highest combined hazard ranking, while 9 other basins had the second highest combined hazard ranking. Of these 10 basins with the 2 highest combined hazard rankings, 7 basins had predicted debris-flow volumes exceeding 100,000 cubic meters, while 3 had predicted probabilities of debris flows exceeding 60 percent. The 10 basins with high combined hazard ranking include 3 tributaries in the headwaters of Trout Creek, four tributaries to the West Fork San Juan River, Hope Creek draining toward a county road on the eastern edge of the burn, Lake Fork draining to U.S. Highway 160, and Leopard Creek on the northern edge of the burn. The probabilities and volumes for the modeled storms indicate a potential for debris-flow impacts on structures, reservoirs, roads, bridges, and culverts located within and immediately downstream from the burned area. U.S. Highway 160, on the eastern edge of the burn area, also is susceptible to impacts from debris flows.

On the watch for geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Arthur W.; Brown, William M.

1997-01-01

Geomagnetic storms, induced by solar activity, pose significant hazards to satellites, electrical power distribution systems, radio communications, navigation, and geophysical surveys. Strong storms can expose astronauts and crews of high-flying aircraft to dangerous levels of radiation. Economic losses from recent geomagnetic storms have run into hundreds of millions of dollars. With the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as the lead agency, an international network of geomagnetic observatories monitors the onset of solar-induced storms and gives warnings that help diminish losses to military and commercial operations and facilities.

Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Ning

Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is developed based on the theory of Poisson random measure, substantiated by a large amount of empirical data. An advanced vulnerability assessment methodology is then developed, by integrating this debris risk model and a component-based pressure damage model, to predict storm-specific or annual damage to coastal residential neighborhoods. The uniqueness of this vulnerability model lies in its detailed description of the interaction between wind pressure and windborne debris effects over periods of strong winds, which is a major mechanism leading to structural failures during hurricanes.

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hummel, Michelle; Wood, Nathan J.; Schweikert, Amy; Stacey, Mark T.; Jones, Jeanne; Barnard, Patrick L.; Erikson, Li H.

2018-01-01

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

Storm hazards '79: F-106B operations summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.; Keyser, G. L., Jr.; Deal, P. L.; Thomas, M. E.; Pitts, F. L.

1980-01-01

Preliminary flight tests with a F-106B aircraft were made on the periphery of isolated thunder cells using weather radar support. In addition to storm hazards correlation research, a direct-strike lightning measurement experiment and an atmospheric chemistry experiment were conducted. Two flights were made to close proximity to lightning generating cumulonimbus clouds; however, no direct lightning strikes were experienced. Although no discernible lightning transients were recorded, many operational techniques were identified and established.

Hurricane Sandy's flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100.

PubMed

Lin, Ning; Kopp, Robert E; Horton, Benjamin P; Donnelly, Jeffrey P

2016-10-25

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City's flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy's flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy's return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100.

Hurricane Sandy’s flood frequency increasing from year 1800 to 2100

PubMed Central

Horton, Benjamin P.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.

2016-01-01

Coastal flood hazard varies in response to changes in storm surge climatology and the sea level. Here we combine probabilistic projections of the sea level and storm surge climatology to estimate the temporal evolution of flood hazard. We find that New York City’s flood hazard has increased significantly over the past two centuries and is very likely to increase more sharply over the 21st century. Due to the effect of sea level rise, the return period of Hurricane Sandy’s flood height decreased by a factor of ∼3× from year 1800 to 2000 and is estimated to decrease by a further ∼4.4× from 2000 to 2100 under a moderate-emissions pathway. When potential storm climatology change over the 21st century is also accounted for, Sandy’s return period is estimated to decrease by ∼3× to 17× from 2000 to 2100. PMID:27790992

Coastal hazards in a changing world: projecting and communicating future coastal flood risk at the local-scale using the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Foxgrover, Amy; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Fitzgibbon, Michael; Wood, Nathan

2017-04-01

The risk of coastal flooding will increase for many low-lying coastal regions as predominant contributions to flooding, including sea level, storm surge, wave setup, and storm-related fluvial discharge, are altered with climate change. Community leaders and local governments therefore look to science to provide insight into how climate change may affect their areas. Many studies of future coastal flooding vulnerability consider sea level and tides, but ignore other important factors that elevate flood levels during storm events, such as waves, surge, and discharge. Here we present a modelling approach that considers a broad range of relevant processes contributing to elevated storm water levels for open coast and embayment settings along the U.S. West Coast. Additionally, we present online tools for communicating community-relevant projected vulnerabilities. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling system developed to predict coastal flooding due to both sea-level rise (SLR) and plausible 21st century storms for active-margin settings like the U.S. West Coast. CoSMoS applies a predominantly deterministic framework of multi-scale models encompassing large geographic scales (100s to 1000s of kilometers) to small-scale features (10s to 1000s of meters), resulting in flood extents that can be projected at a local resolution (2 meters). In the latest iteration of CoSMoS applied to Southern California, U.S., efforts were made to incorporate water level fluctuations in response to regional storm impacts, locally wind-generated waves, coastal river discharge, and decadal-scale shoreline and cliff changes. Coastal hazard projections are available in a user-friendly web-based tool (www.prbo.org/ocof), where users can view variations in flood extent, maximum flood depth, current speeds, and wave heights in response to a range of potential SLR and storm combinations, providing direct support to adaptation and management decisions. In order to capture the societal aspect of the hazard, projections are combined with socioeconomic exposure to produce clear, actionable information (https://www.usgs.gov/apps/hera/); this integrated approach to hazard displays provides an example of how to effectively translate complex climate impacts projections into simple, societally-relevant information.

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

Enhanced Tools and Techniques to Support Debris Management in Disaster Response Missions (Flood and Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Research and Development Program)

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

debris removal without restoration is deployed.  Conduct a controlled field study of restoration activity, for example, along the Wabash ...hazardous metals including chromium, cadmium , lead and mercury (MDEQ 2008; Thibodeau 2002). 3. Batteries in electronics and computers may contain lead...mercury, nickel and cadmium . Appliances Appliances are a problem mainly due to their large size, creating issues with loading, hauling, and

The USGS geomagnetism program and its role in space weather monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Finn, Carol A.

2011-01-01

Magnetic storms result from the dynamic interaction of the solar wind with the coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric system. Large storms represent a potential hazard for the activities and infrastructure of a modern, technologically based society [Baker et al., 2008]; they can cause the loss of radio communications, reduce the accuracy of global positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and affect satellite operations, increase pipeline corrosion, and induce voltage surges in electric power grids, causing blackouts. So while space weather starts with the Sun and is driven by the solar wind, it is on, or just above, the surface of the Earth that the practical effects of space weather are realized. Therefore, ground-based sensor networks, including magnetic observatories [Love, 2008], play an important role in space weather monitoring.

The USGS Geomagnetism Program and its role in Space-Weather Monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Finn, Carol A.

2011-01-01

Magnetic storms result from the dynamic interaction of the solar wind with the coupled magnetospheric-ionospheric system. Large storms represent a potential hazard for the activities and infrastructure of a modern, technologically based society [Baker et al., 2008]; they can cause the loss of radio communications, reduce the accuracy of global positioning systems, damage satellite electronics and affect satellite operations, increase pipeline corrosion, and induce voltage surges in electric power grids, causing blackouts. So while space weather starts with the Sun and is driven by the solar wind, it is on, or just above, the surface of the Earth that the practical effects of space weather are realized. Therefore, ground-based sensor networks, including magnetic observatories [Love, 2008], play an important role in space weather monitoring.

Coordinated management of coastal hazard awareness and preparedness in the USVI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watlington, R. A.; Lewis, E.; Drost, D.

2014-04-01

As far back as history has been written in the islands today known as the US Virgin Islands (USVI), residents have had to endure and survive costly and deadly onslaughts from tropical storms such as the 1867 San Narciso Hurricane, Hurricane Hugo and Hurricane Marilyn. Keenly alerted by recent tragic events in the Indian Ocean in 2004, in Haiti in 2010 and in Japan in 2011, the USVI was reminded that it had suffered its greatest tsunami impact in a well-documented event that had followed the 1867 hurricane by fewer than three weeks. To address their community's continual vulnerability to coastal hazards, USVI emergency managers, scientists and educators, assisted by national and regional disaster management agencies and warning programs, have engaged programs for understanding, anticipating and mitigating these hazards. This paper focuses on how three public-serving institutions, the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency (VITEMA), the University of the Virgin Islands and the Caribbean Ocean Observing System have responded to the community's need for improved preparedness through programs of physical preparation, planning, research, observations, education and outreach. This report reviews some of the approaches and activities employed in the USVI in the hope of sharing their benefits with similarly vulnerable coastal communities.

Meteorology, Macrophysics, Microphysics, Microwaves, and Mesoscale Modeling of Mediterranean Mountain Storms: The M8 Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starr, David O. (Technical Monitor); Smith, Eric A.

2002-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms can be accomplished by a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, from synoptic scale down through the mesoscale, the cloud macrophysical scale, and ultimately the cloud microphysical scale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. This involves intense convective development, stratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that affect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted in this study by three mountain storms producing damaging floods in northern Italy between 1992 and 2000, developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within a storm domain. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size disi:ributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within hazardous storm environments.

Down to Earth with a hazard from space: Mapping geoelectric amplitudes for extreme levels of magnetic-storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.

2016-12-01

Magnetic-storm induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's electrically conducting crust, lithosphere, mantle, and ocean can interfere with the operations of electric-power grid systems. The future occurrence of an extremely intense magnetic storm might even result in continental-scale failure of electric-power distribution. Such an event would entail significant deleterious consequence for the economy and international security. Building on a project established by the President's National Science and Technology Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy for assessing space-weather induction hazards, we develop a series of geoelectric hazard maps. These are constructed using an empirical parameterization of induction: local estimates of Earth-surface impedance, obtained from EarthScope and USGS magnetotelluric survey data, are convolved with latitude-dependent statistical maps of extreme-value geomagnetic activity, obtained from decades magnetic observatory data. Geoelectric hazard maps are constructed for both north-south and east-west geomagnetic variation, and for both 240-s and 1200-s sinusoidal variation -- periods of interest to the power-grid industry. The maps cover about half of the continental United States. They depict the threshold level that geoelectric amplitude can be expected to exceed, on average, once per century at discrete geographic sites in response to extreme-intensity geomagnetic activity. Of the regions where magnetotelluric data are available, the greatest induction hazards are found in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa - this being the result of both high-latitude geomagntic activity and complex subsurface conductivity structure. At some sites in the continental United States, once-per-century geoelectric amplitudes can exceed the 1.7 V/km realized in Quebec during the March 1989 storm. This work highlights the importance of geophysical surveys and ground-level monitoring data for assessing space-weather induction hazards.

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Northeast Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birchler, Justin J.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.

2014-01-01

Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes are substantially eroded, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. On barrier islands, absent or low dunes allow water to flow inland across the island, potentially increasing storm surge in the back bay, on the sound-side of the barrier, and on the mainland.

Assessing hazards along our Nation's coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Brenner, Owen; Henderson, Rachel E.; Reynolds, B.J.

2013-01-01

Coastal areas are essential to the economic, cultural, and environmental health of the Nation, yet by nature coastal areas are constantly changing due to a variety of events and processes. Extreme storms can cause dramatic changes to our shorelines in a matter of hours, while sea-level rise can profoundly alter coastal environments over decades. These changes can have a devastating impact on coastal communities, such as the loss of homes built on retreating sea cliffs or protective dunes eroded by storm waves. Sometimes, however, the changes can be positive, such as new habitat created by storm deposits. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is meeting the need for scientific understanding of how our coasts respond to different hazards with continued assessments of current and future changes along U.S. coastlines. Through the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH), the USGS carries out the unique task of quantifying coastal change hazards along open-ocean coasts in the United States and its territories. Residents of coastal communities, emergency managers, and other stakeholders can use science-based data, tools, models, and other products to improve planning and enhance resilience.

Hydrometeorological Hazards: Monitoring, Forecasting, Risk Assessment, and Socioeconomic Responses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong; Kirschbaum, Dalia B.; Ward, Philip

2017-01-01

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes,tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards and societies vulnerability to them differ between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods, and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. For example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths, and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, andincrease propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.

Self-organization and forcing templates in coastal barrier response to storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, E.

2015-12-01

When a storm event pushes water up and over a coastal barrier, cross-shore flow transports sediment from the barrier face to the back-barrier environment. This natural physical process is called "overwash", and "washover" is the sedimentary deposit it forms. Overwash and washover support critical coastal habitats, and enable barriers to maintain their height and width relative to rising sea level. On developed barrier coasts, overwash constitutes a natural hazard, which sea-level rise will exacerbate. Overwash is also a prerequisite for barrier breaching and coastal flooding. Predicting occurrence and characteristics of overwash and washover has significant societal value. Hazard models typically assume that pre-storm barrier morphology determines how the barrier changes during a storm. However, classic work has documented the absence of a relationship between pre/post-storm topography in some cases, and has also identified rhythmic patterns in washover alongshore. Previous explanations for these spatial patterns have looked to forcing templates, forms that get imprinted in the barrier shape. An alternative explanation is that washover patterns self-organize, emerging from feedbacks between water flow and sediment transport. Self-organization and forcing templates are often framed as mutually exclusive, but patterns likely form across a continuum of conditions. Here, I use data from a new physical experiment to suggest that spatial patterns in washover can self-organize within the limit of a forcing template of some critical "strength", beyond which pre/post-storm morphologies are highly correlated. Quantifying spatial patterns in washover deposits opens exciting questions regarding coastal morphodynamic response to storms. Measurement of relative template strength over extended spatial (and temporal) scales has the potential to improve hazard assessment and prediction, particularly where template strength is low and self-organization dominates barrier change.

Recent Extreme Marine Events at Southern Coast of Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ozyurt Tarakcioglu, Gulizar; Cevdet Yalciner, Ahmet; Kirezci, Cagil; Baykal, Cuneyt; Gokhan Guler, Hasan; Erol, Onur; Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey

2015-04-01

The utilization at the coastal areas of Black Sea basin has increased in the recent years with the projects such as large commercial ports, international transportation hubs, gas and petrol pipelines, touristic and recreational infrastructures both along surrounding shoreline. Although Black Sea is a closed basin, extreme storms and storm surges have also been observed with an increasing frequency in the recent years. Among those events, February 1999, March 2013 and September 2014 storms impacted Southern coast of Black sea have clearly shown that the increasing economic value at the coastal areas caused the increasing cost of damages and loss of property by natural hazards. The storm occurred on February 19-20, 1999 is one of the most destructive storm in the last decades. The 1999 event (1999 Southern Black sea storm) caused destruction at all harbors and coastal protection structures along the Black Sea coast of Turkey. The complete damage of the breakwater of Giresun Harbor and damage on the harbor structures and cargo handling equipment were the major impacts of the 1999 Southern Black sea storm. Similar coastal impact have also been observed during the September 24, 2014 storm at 500m East of Giresun harbor. Although there are considerable number of destructive storms observed at southern coast of Black sea recently, data on these events are limited and vastly scattered. In this study the list of recent extreme marine events at South coast of the Black sea compiled and related data such as wind speed, wave height, period, and type of damages are cataloged. Particular attention is focused on the 1999 and 2014 storm events. The meteorological and morphological characteristics which may be considered as the reasons of the generation and coastal amplification of these storms are discussed. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: This study is partly supported by Turkish Russian Joint Research Grant Program by TUBITAK (Turkey) and RFBR (Russia), and TUBITAK 213M534 Research Project.

Desert dust hazards: A global review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, N. J.

2017-02-01

Dust storms originate in many of the world's drylands and frequently present hazards to human society, both within the drylands themselves but also outside drylands due to long-range transport of aeolian sediments. Major sources of desert dust include the Sahara, the Middle East, central and eastern Asia, and parts of Australia, but dust-raising occurs all across the global drylands and, on occasion, beyond. Dust storms occur throughout the year and they vary in frequency and intensity over a number of timescales. Long-range transport of desert dust typically takes place along seasonal transport paths. Desert dust hazards are here reviewed according to the three phases of the wind erosion system: where dust is entrained, during the transport phase, and on deposition. This paper presents a synthesis of these hazards. It draws on empirical examples in physical geography, medical geology and geomorphology to discuss case studies from all over the world and in various fields. These include accelerated soil erosion in agricultural zones - where dust storms represent a severe form of accelerated soil erosion - the health effects of air pollution caused by desert aerosols via their physical, chemical and biological properties, transport accidents caused by poor visibility during desert dust events, and impacts on electricity generation and distribution. Given the importance of desert dust as a hazard to human societies, it is surprising to note that there have been relatively few attempts to assess their impact in economic terms. Existing studies in this regard are also reviewed, but the wide range of impacts discussed in this paper indicates that desert dust storms deserve more attention in this respect.

Engaging Storm Spotters and Community College Students in Regional Responses to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.; Buhr, S. M.

2012-12-01

Resiliency to natural hazards includes climate literacy. With a record number of billion dollar weather disasters in 2011, each one enhanced by a warmer atmosphere, our nation needs new strategies to respond, mitigate, communicate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. We know that actions we take today matter, but finding ways to mobilize our citizenry remains largely elusive. One way to galvanize a meaningful response to climate change could involve National Weather Service (NWS) storm spotters and Community College students. Dedicated storm spotters represent decades of NOAA NWS efforts to engage and enlist public participation in community safety. Why not leverage this wealth of human capital to cultivate a similar mitigation and stewardship response? The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted a pilot project with NWS storm spotters in the spring of 2011 via a web seminar on climate change, climate mitigation and emerging applications to access weather and climate data with mobile devices. Nineteen storm spotters participated and eleven provided feedback via a follow-up survey. A third of the respondents indicated that they had taken actions to minimize their carbon footprint; a majority (90%) indicated their likelihood to take action in the near future and more than two-thirds said they wanted to learn more about climate mitigation and sustainability. One attendee commented "Thank-you for putting together this web seminar. As a weather spotter, I found the information helpful, even humbling, to know climate change is already happening." CIMSS is also collaborating with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) and Madison Area Technical College (MATC) on a climate education project where community college students take an on-line climate change course followed by the opportunity to apply for a summer internship. Through this program, two students worked at renewable energy internships during the summer of 2012. We propose that these pilot projects be implemented on regional and national scales. The relative cost and carbon footprint to organize this effort could be kept to a minimum by leveraging established storm spotter programs at NOAA's 122 Weather Service Offices and existing outreach programs at NOAA's 18 Cooperative Institutes.

Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

2017-09-01

In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

Quantifying riverine and storm-surge flood risk by single-family residence: application to Texas.

PubMed

Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Kunreuther, Howard; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

2013-12-01

The development of catastrophe models in recent years allows for assessment of the flood hazard much more effectively than when the federally run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created in 1968. We propose and then demonstrate a methodological approach to determine pure premiums based on the entire distribution of possible flood events. We apply hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses to a sample of 300,000 single-family residences in two counties in Texas (Travis and Galveston) using state-of-the-art flood catastrophe models. Even in zones of similar flood risk classification by FEMA there is substantial variation in exposure between coastal and inland flood risk. For instance, homes in the designated moderate-risk X500/B zones in Galveston are exposed to a flood risk on average 2.5 times greater than residences in X500/B zones in Travis. The results also show very similar average annual loss (corrected for exposure) for a number of residences despite their being in different FEMA flood zones. We also find significant storm-surge exposure outside of the FEMA designated storm-surge risk zones. Taken together these findings highlight the importance of a microanalysis of flood exposure. The process of aggregating risk at a flood zone level-as currently undertaken by FEMA-provides a false sense of uniformity. As our analysis indicates, the technology to delineate the flood risks exists today. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

National assessment of nor’easter-induced coastal erosion hazards: mid- and northeast Atlantic coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birchler, Justin J.; Dalyander, P. Soupy; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.

2015-09-21

Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes or nor’easters may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes are substantially eroded, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. On barrier islands, absent or low dunes allow water to flow inland across the island.

New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsk Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX): A research program towards mitigating multiple hazards and risks in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, K. M.; Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.; Modaressi, H.; Matrix Consortium

2011-12-01

Scientists, engineers, civil protection and disaster managers typically treat natural hazards and risks individually. This leads to the situation where the frequent causal relationships between the different hazards and risks, e.g., earthquakes and volcanos, or floods and landslides, are ignored. Such an oversight may potentially lead to inefficient mitigation planning. As part of their efforts to confront this issue, the European Union, under its FP7 program, is supporting the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project. The focus of MATRIX is on natural hazards, in particular earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding. MATRIX will endeavour to develop methods and tools to tackle multi-type natural hazards and risks within a common framework, focusing on methodologies that are suited to the European context. The work will involve an assessment of current single-type hazard and risk assessment methodologies, including a comparison and quantification of uncertainties and harmonization of single-type methods, examining the consequence of cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and a series of test cases. Three test sites are being used to assess the methods developed within the project (Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies), as well as a "virtual city" based on a comprehensive IT platform that will allow scenarios not represented by the test cases to be examined. In addition, a comprehensive dissemination program that will involve national platforms for disaster management, as well as various outreach activities, will be undertaken. The MATRIX consortium consists of ten research institutions (nine European and one Canadian), an end-user (i.e., one of the European national platforms for disaster reduction) and a partner from industry.

Is It Going to Rain Today? Understanding the Weather Forecast.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Allsopp, Jim; And Others

1996-01-01

Presents a resource for science teachers to develop a better understanding of weather forecasts, including outlooks, watches, warnings, advisories, severe local storms, winter storms, floods, hurricanes, nonprecipitation hazards, precipitation probabilities, sky condition, and UV index. (MKR)

Vulnerability of fuel distribution systems to hazards in coastal communities : final research report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-04-30

Coastal communities are vulnerable to disruptions in their fuel distribution networks due to : tropical storms, hurricanes and associated flooding. These disruptions impact communities by : limiting fueling in the days following the storm potentially...

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

76 FR 38618 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; StormReadyTM

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-01

... Collection; Comment Request; StormReady\\TM\\, TsunamiReady\\TM\\ and StormReady/TsunamiReady\\TM\\ Application... information collection. The StormReady Program, like the TsunamiReady and StormReady/TsunamiReady programs... certain guidelines that qualify them for StormReady recognition. The full StormReady recognition is not...

Communicating Coastal Risk Analysis in an Age of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

extratropical storm systems); the geometry and geomorphology of the area (regional and local bathymetry and topography, including rivers, marshes, and...at risk from coastal hazards including storm surge inundation, precipitation driven flooding, waves, and coastal erosion. This population segment...will likely be exposed to increased risk as impacts of a changing climate are felt through elevated sea levels and potentially increased storm

The joint return period analysis of natural disasters based on monitoring and statistical modeling of multidimensional hazard factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Yuan, Shuai; Xu, Ning; Shi, Wenqin; Chen, Weibin

2015-12-15

As a random event, a natural disaster has the complex occurrence mechanism. The comprehensive analysis of multiple hazard factors is important in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the accuracy of risk analysis and forecasting, the formation mechanism of a disaster should be considered in the analysis and calculation of multi-factors. Based on the consideration of the importance and deficiencies of multivariate analysis of dust storm disasters, 91 severe dust storm disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1990 to 2013 were selected as study cases in the paper. Main hazard factors from 500-hPa atmospheric circulation system, near-surface meteorological system, and underlying surface conditions were selected to simulate and calculate the multidimensional joint return periods. After comparing the simulation results with actual dust storm events in 54years, we found that the two-dimensional Frank Copula function showed the better fitting results at the lower tail of hazard factors and that three-dimensional Frank Copula function displayed the better fitting results at the middle and upper tails of hazard factors. However, for dust storm disasters with the short return period, three-dimensional joint return period simulation shows no obvious advantage. If the return period is longer than 10years, it shows significant advantages in extreme value fitting. Therefore, we suggest the multivariate analysis method may be adopted in forecasting and risk analysis of serious disasters with the longer return period, such as earthquake and tsunami. Furthermore, the exploration of this method laid the foundation for the prediction and warning of other nature disasters. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of new geomagnetic storm ground response scaling factors for utilization in hazard assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bernabeu, E.; Weigel, R. S.; Kelbert, A.; Rigler, E. J.; Bedrosian, P.; Love, J. J.

2017-12-01

Development of realistic storm scenarios that can be played through the exposed systems is one of the key requirements for carrying out quantitative space weather hazards assessments. In the geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) and power grids context, these scenarios have to quantify the spatiotemporal evolution of the geoelectric field that drives the potentially hazardous currents in the system. In response to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) order 779, a team of scientists and engineers that worked under the auspices of North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), has developed extreme geomagnetic storm and geoelectric field benchmark(s) that use various scaling factors that account for geomagnetic latitude and ground structure of the locations of interest. These benchmarks, together with the information generated in the National Space Weather Action Plan, are the foundation for the hazards assessments that the industry will be carrying out in response to the FERC order and under the auspices of the National Science and Technology Council. While the scaling factors developed in the past work were based on the best available information, there is now significant new information available for parts of the U.S. pertaining to the ground response to external geomagnetic field excitation. The significant new information includes the results magnetotelluric surveys that have been conducted over the past few years across the contiguous US and results from previous surveys that have been made available in a combined online database. In this paper, we distill this new information in the framework of the NERC benchmark and in terms of updated ground response scaling factors thereby allowing straightforward utilization in the hazard assessments. We also outline the path forward for improving the overall extreme event benchmark scenario(s) including generalization of the storm waveforms and geoelectric field spatial patterns.

40 CFR 122.31 - As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... NPDES storm water program? 122.31 Section 122.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... role under the NPDES storm water program? As a Tribe you may: (a) Be authorized to operate the NPDES program including the storm water program, after EPA determines that you are eligible for treatment in the...

40 CFR 122.31 - As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... NPDES storm water program? 122.31 Section 122.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... role under the NPDES storm water program? As a Tribe you may: (a) Be authorized to operate the NPDES program including the storm water program, after EPA determines that you are eligible for treatment in the...

40 CFR 122.31 - As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... NPDES storm water program? 122.31 Section 122.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION... role under the NPDES storm water program? As a Tribe you may: (a) Be authorized to operate the NPDES program including the storm water program, after EPA determines that you are eligible for treatment in the...

Convective weather hazards in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area, MN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenfeld, Kenneth A.

This dissertation investigates the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms, and their associated hazards, in the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area (TCMA), Minnesota. Using public severe weather reports databases and high spatial density rain gauge data, annual frequencies and return-periods are calculated for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flood-inducing rainfall. The hypothesis that severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are less likely in the central TCMA than in surrounding areas also is examined, and techniques for estimating 100-year rainfall amounts are developed and discussed. This research finds that: (i) storms capable of significant damage somewhere within the TCMA recur annually (sometimes multiple times per year), while storms virtually certain to cause such damage recur every 2-3 years; (ii) though severe weather reports data are not amenable to classical comparative statistical testing, careful treatment of them suggests all types and intensity categories of severe convective weather have been and should continue to be approximately as common in the central TCMA as in surrounding areas; and (iii) applications of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics and areal analyses of rainfall data lead to significantly larger (25-50%) estimates of 100-year rainfall amounts in the TCMA and parts of Minnesota than those currently published and used for precipitation design. The growth of the TCMA, the popular sentiment that downtown areas somehow deter severe storms and tornadoes, and the prior underestimation of extreme rainfall thresholds for precipitation design, all act to enhance local susceptibility to hazards from severe convective storms.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Huan; Huang, Maoyi; Tang, Qiuhong

Hydrometeorological hazards are caused by extreme meteorological and climate events, such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, or landslides. They account for a dominant fraction of natural hazards and occur in all regions of the world, although the frequency and intensity of certain hazards, and society’s vulnerability to them, differs between regions. Severe storms, strong winds, floods and droughts develop at different spatial and temporal scales, but all can become disasters that cause significant infrastructure damage and claim hundreds of thousands of lives annually worldwide. Oftentimes, multiple hazards can occur simultaneously or trigger cascading impacts from one extreme weather event. Formore » example, in addition to causing injuries, deaths and material damage, a tropical storm can also result in flooding and mudslides, which can disrupt water purification and sewage disposal systems, cause overflow of toxic wastes, and increase propagation of mosquito-borne diseases.« less

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

PubMed

Nel, Jeanne L; Le Maitre, David C; Nel, Deon C; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W; Forsyth, Greg G; Theron, Andre K; O'Farrell, Patrick J; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.

Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

2013-12-01

The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

Physically-based extreme flood frequency with stochastic storm transposition and paleoflood data on large watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

England, John F.; Julien, Pierre Y.; Velleux, Mark L.

2014-03-01

Traditionally, deterministic flood procedures such as the Probable Maximum Flood have been used for critical infrastructure design. Some Federal agencies now use hydrologic risk analysis to assess potential impacts of extreme events on existing structures such as large dams. Extreme flood hazard estimates and distributions are needed for these efforts, with very low annual exceedance probabilities (⩽10-4) (return periods >10,000 years). An integrated data-modeling hydrologic hazard framework for physically-based extreme flood hazard estimation is presented. Key elements include: (1) a physically-based runoff model (TREX) coupled with a stochastic storm transposition technique; (2) hydrometeorological information from radar and an extreme storm catalog; and (3) streamflow and paleoflood data for independently testing and refining runoff model predictions at internal locations. This new approach requires full integration of collaborative work in hydrometeorology, flood hydrology and paleoflood hydrology. An application on the 12,000 km2 Arkansas River watershed in Colorado demonstrates that the size and location of extreme storms are critical factors in the analysis of basin-average rainfall frequency and flood peak distributions. Runoff model results are substantially improved by the availability and use of paleoflood nonexceedance data spanning the past 1000 years at critical watershed locations.

Historical reconstruction of storms in the West of France in the early Little Ice Age.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athimon, Emmanuelle; Maanan, Mohamed

2016-04-01

This research offers to : 1) identify, as accurately as possible, the storms and the coastal flooding in the early Little Ice Age, 2) expose their impacts on the environment and populations, 3) query the « resilience » and adaptation of medieval and modern coastal societies in the West of France by presenting their perceptions and reactions. The space-time frame of the study is located in France, from Brittany to Gascony, between the xivth and the xvith century. Sensitive and brittle, this area is regularly battered by violent winds. It also undergoes episodic sea flooding that can cause ruptures of balance. Hence, the historical reconstruction and analysis of storms and coastal flooding in a long period appear fundamental. A thorough knowledge of past meteo-marine hazards allows to recreate a link with the territory, particularly through the (re)construction of an effective memory of these phenomena. This process is essential however difficult because of many documentary gaps. They are due to historical contingencies such as wars, French Revolution, or archival disasters like the fire of the Chamber of Accounts in Paris in 1737. Many limits must also be taken into account and discussed as inaccurate dates, exaggerated or undervalued descriptions, strict spatial demarcation almost impossible to achieve for the xivth-xvith centuries. Furthermore, during this period, no death toll, material and economic balance was done after a climate disaster. Yet, many historical records - especially narrative sources, books of accounts or cities repairs - expose the impacts of storms and marine submersion on agriculture, environment, infrastructures, etc. For instance, a violent storm hit the coast on June 24th 1452. It washed away part of the roof of a castle on Noirmoutier island and knocked down the bell towers of two churches in Angers. Storms and sea flooding have affected activities, constructions and populations' lives. They have therefore forced societies to adapt. These ones integrated risks into their lifestyle and developed their territories accordingly. The past coastal societies had a significant risk awareness related to mental perceptions and several cultural practices. In 1451, a memorandum, sent to the board of King Charles VII, set forth the feeling of coastal communities facing the sea and its dangers. Moreover, these extreme climatic hazards have led the various authorities of the realm to make decisions accordingly. On June 23th 1511, after a violent storm occurred a year and a half before in the Bay of Bourgneuf, the Duchess Anne of Brittany tax exempted populations for five years. This kind of event brings to light the seniority of the concerns and the active research of answers to deal with climate hazards. Thus, this research offers a reflection on the reactions and adaptation of populations, political and judicial fields. Their goal was to provide a "post-disaster" support and prevent future risks. Key words : Little Ice Age, coastline, storm, societies' reactions, adaptation. This work was supported by grants from the Fondation de France through the research program « Quels littoraux pour demain? ».

Ensemble tropical-extratropical cyclone coastal flood hazard assessment with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orton, P. M.; Lin, N.; Colle, B.

2016-12-01

A challenge with quantifying future changes in coastal flooding for the U.S. East Coast is that climate change has varying effects on different types of storms, in addition to raising mean sea levels. Moreover, future flood hazard uncertainties are large and come from many sources. Here, a new coastal flood hazard assessment approach is demonstrated that separately evaluates and then combines probabilities of storm tide generated from tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical cyclones (ETCs). The separation enables us to incorporate climate change impacts on both types of storms. The assessment accounts for epistemic storm tide uncertainty using an ensemble of different prior studies and methods of assessment, merged with uncertainty in climate change effects on storm tides and sea levels. The assessment is applied for New York Harbor, under the auspices of the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). In the New York Bight region and much of the U.S. East Coast, differing flood exceedance curve slopes for TCs and ETCs arise due to their differing physics. It is demonstrated how errors can arise for this region from mixing together storm types in an extreme value statistical analysis, a common practice when using observations. The effects of climate change on TC and ETC flooding have recently been assessed for this region, for TCs using a Global Climate Model (GCM) driven hurricane model with hydrodynamic modeling, and for ETCs using a GCM-driven multilinear regression-based storm surge model. The results of these prior studies are applied to our central estimates of the flood exceedance curve probabilities, transforming them for climate change effects. The results are useful for decision-makers because they highlight the large uncertainty in present-day and future flood risk, and also for scientists because they identify the areas where further research is most needed.

On the Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise Projections for Infrastructure Risk Analysis and Adaptation

EPA Science Inventory

Storm surge can cause coastal hydrology changes, flooding, water quality changes, and even inundation of low-lying terrain. Strong wave actions and disruptive winds can damage water infrastructure and other environmental assets (hazardous and solid waste management facilities, w...

Natural Hazards in Your Community

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martinez,Cindy

2004-01-01

The Earth is a powerful, active, and ever-changing planet. Earthquakes and volcanoes reshape the Earth's crust with sudden bursts of movement or with eruptions that last decades. Powerful storms develop in the swirling atmosphere, creating cumulonimbus thunderclouds, lightning storms, and even tornadoes or hurricanes. Geological features and moist…

Site Specific Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimates and Professional Judgement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, B. D.; Kao, S. C.; Kanney, J. F.; Quinlan, K. R.; DeNeale, S. T.

2015-12-01

State and federal regulatory authorities currently rely upon the US National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports (HMRs) to determine probable maximum precipitation (PMP) estimates (i.e., rainfall depths and durations) for estimating flooding hazards for relatively broad regions in the US. PMP estimates for the contributing watersheds upstream of vulnerable facilities are used to estimate riverine flooding hazards while site-specific estimates for small water sheds are appropriate for individual facilities such as nuclear power plants. The HMRs are often criticized due to their limitations on basin size, questionable applicability in regions affected by orographic effects, their lack of consist methods, and generally by their age. HMR-51 for generalized PMP estimates for the United States east of the 105th meridian, was published in 1978 and is sometimes perceived as overly conservative. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), is currently reviewing several flood hazard evaluation reports that rely on site specific PMP estimates that have been commercially developed. As such, NRC has recently investigated key areas of expert judgement via a generic audit and one in-depth site specific review as they relate to identifying and quantifying actual and potential storm moisture sources, determining storm transposition limits, and adjusting available moisture during storm transposition. Though much of the approach reviewed was considered a logical extension of HMRs, two key points of expert judgement stood out for further in-depth review. The first relates primarily to small storms and the use of a heuristic for storm representative dew point adjustment developed for the Electric Power Research Institute by North American Weather Consultants in 1993 in order to harmonize historic storms for which only 12 hour dew point data was available with more recent storms in a single database. The second issue relates to the use of climatological averages for spatially interpolating 100-year dew point values rather than a more gauge-based approach. Site specific reviews demonstrated that both issues had potential for lowering the PMP estimate significantly by affecting the in-place and transposed moisture maximization value and, in turn, the final controlling storm for a given basin size and PMP estimate.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

PubMed Central

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions. PMID:29657544

From tsunami hazard assessment to risk management in Guadeloupe (F.W.I.)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zahibo, Narcisse; Dudon, Bernard; Krien, Yann; Arnaud, Gaël; Mercado, Aurelio; Roger, Jean

2017-04-01

The Caribbean region is prone to numerous natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, storm surges, tsunamis, coastal erosion or hurricanes. All these threats may cause great human and economic losses and are thus of prime interest for applied research. One of the main challenges for the scientific community is to conduct state-of-the-art research to assess hazards and share the results with coastal planners and decision makers so that they can regulate land use and develop mitigation strategies. We present here the results of a scientific collaborative project between Guadeloupe and Porto Rico which aimed at bringing a decision-making support to the authorities regarding tsunami hazards. This project led us to build a database of potential extreme events, and to study their impacts on Guadeloupe to investigate storm surge and tsunami hazards. The results were used by local authorities to develop safeguarding and mitigation measures in coastal areas. This project is thus a good example to demonstrate the benefit of inter Caribbean scientific collaboration for natural risks management.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards.

PubMed

Wright, Daniel B; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D

2017-04-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, RainyDay can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, RainyDay can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. RainyDay can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

A Remote Sensing-Based Tool for Assessing Rainfall-Driven Hazards

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, Daniel B.; Mantilla, Ricardo; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

RainyDay is a Python-based platform that couples rainfall remote sensing data with Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) for modeling rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides. SST effectively lengthens the extreme rainfall record through temporal resampling and spatial transposition of observed storms from the surrounding region to create many extreme rainfall scenarios. Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are often used for hazard modeling but require long records to describe the distribution of rainfall depth and duration and do not provide information regarding rainfall space-time structure, limiting their usefulness to small scales. In contrast, Rainy Day can be used for many hazard applications with 1-2 decades of data, and output rainfall scenarios incorporate detailed space-time structure from remote sensing. Thanks to global satellite coverage, Rainy Day can be used in inaccessible areas and developing countries lacking ground measurements, though results are impacted by remote sensing errors. Rainy Day can be useful for hazard modeling under nonstationary conditions.

Reconnaissance Study: Rouge River Watershed, Michigan Flood Hazard Reduction, Riverine Ecosystem Restoration, and Recreational Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-09-12

wetlands for preliminary treatment of sediment, oil, and grease prior to discharging into the Rouge River. While mitigating storm water quality and...land uses. While Alternative 2 and 3 have similar habitat enhancement features, Alternative 2 has much more measurable storm water quality benefits...sediment, oil, and grease prior to discharging into the Rouge River. While mitigating storm water quality and quantity impacts, this alternative

Application of IRTAM to Support ISS Program Safety

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartman, William A.; Schmidl, William D.; Mikatarian, Ronald; Koontz, Steven; Galkin, Ivan

2017-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) orbits near the F-peak of the ionosphere (approximately 400 km altitude). Generally, satellites orbiting at this altitude would have a floating potential (FP) of approximately -1 V due to the electron temperature (Te). However, the ISS has 8 large negatively grounded 160 V solar array wings (SAW) that collect a significant electron current from the ionosphere. This current drives the ISS FP much more negative during insolation and is highly dependent on the electron density (Ne). Also, due to the size of the ISS, magnetic inductance caused by the geomagnetic field produces a delta potential up to 40 V across the truss, possibly producing positive potentials. During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) the negative FP can lead to an arcing hazard when it exceeds -45.5 V, and the positive FP can produce a DC current high enough to stimulate the astronaut's muscles and also cause a hazard. Data collected from the Floating Potential Monitoring Unit (FPMU) have shown that the probability of either of these hazards occurring during times with quiet to moderately disturbed geomagnetic activity is low enough to no longer be considered a risk. However, a study of the ionosphere Ne during severe geomagnetic storm activity has shown that the Ne can be enhanced by a factor of 6 in the ISS orbit. As a result, the ISS Safety Review Panel (SRP) requires that ionospheric conditions be monitored using the FPMU in conjunction with the ISS Plasma Interaction Model (PIM) to determine if a severe geomagnetic storm could result in a plasma environment that could produce a hazard. A 'Real-Time' plasma hazard assessment process was developed to support ISS Program real-time decision making providing constraint relief information for EVAs planning and operations. This process incorporates 'real time' ionospheric conditions, ISS solar arrays' orientation, ISS flight attitude, and where the EVA will be performed on the ISS. This assessment requires real time data that is presently provided by the FPMU including ISS floating potential, along with ionospheric Ne and Te, in order to determine the present environment. Once the present environment conditions are known to be either above, below, or near the current IRI values, the IRI is used to forecast what the environment could become in the event of a severe geomagnetic storm. If the FPMU should fail, the Space Environments team needs another source of data which is utilized to support a short-term forecast for EVAs. The IRI Real-Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) model is an ionospheric model that uses real time measurements from approximately 70 digisondes to produce foF2 and hmF2 global maps in 15 minute cadence. The Boeing Space Environments team has used the IRI coefficients produced in IRTAM to calculate the Ne along the ISS orbital track. The results of the IRTAM model have been compared to FPMU measurements and show excellent agreement (figure 1). IRTAM has been identified as a potential FPMU back-up system will be used as a backup for the FPMU to support the ISS Program following completion of an FPMU/IRTAM validation campaign.

Lightning Protection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1991-01-01

Lightning Technologies, Inc., Pittsfield, MA, - a spinoff company founded by president J. Anderson Plumer, a former NASA contractor employee who developed his expertise with General Electric Company's High Voltage Laboratory - was a key player in Langley Research Center's Storm Hazards Research Program. Lightning Technologies used its NASA acquired experience to develop protective measures for electronic systems and composite structures on aircraft, both of which are particularly susceptible to lightning damage. The company also provides protection design and verification testing services for complete aircraft systems or individual components. Most aircraft component manufacturers are among Lightning Technologies' clients.

Holocene evolution of Apalachicola Bay, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osterman, Lisa E.; Twichell, David C.

2011-01-01

A program of geophysical mapping and vibracoring was conducted in 2007 to better understand the geologic evolution of Apalachicola Bay and its response to sea-level rise. A detailed geologic history could help better understand how this bay may respond to both short-term (for example, storm surge) and long-term sea-level rise. The results of this study were published (Osterman and others, 2009) as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project.

Nationwide high-resolution mapping of hazards in the Philippines (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar Francisco A.

2015-04-01

The Philippines being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Situated in a region where severe weather and geophysical unrest is common, the Philippines will inevitably suffer from calamities similar to those experienced recently. With continued development and population growth in hazard prone areas, it is expected that damage to infrastructure and human losses would persist and even rise unless appropriate measures are immediately implemented by government. Recently, the Philippines put in place a responsive program called the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) for disaster prevention and mitigation. The efforts of Project NOAH are an offshoot of lessons learned from previous disasters that have inflicted massive loss of lives and costly damage to property. Several components of the NOAH program focus on mapping of landslide, riverine flood and storm surge inundation hazards. By simulating hazards phenomena over IFSAR- and LiDAR-derived digital terrain models (DTMs) using high-performance computers, multi-hazards maps of 1:10,000 scale, have been produced and disseminated to local government units through a variety of platforms. These detailed village-level (barangay-level) maps are useful to identify safe evacuation sites, planning emergency access routes and prepositioning of search and rescue and relief supplies during times of crises. They are also essential for long-term development planning of communities. In the past two years, NOAH was instrumental in providing timely, site-specific, and understandable hazards information to the public, considered as best practice in disaster risk reduction management (DRR). The use of advanced science and technology in the country's disaster prevention efforts is imperative to successfully mitigate the adverse impacts of natural hazards and should be a continuous quest - to find the best products, put forth in the forefront of battle against disasters.

Quaternary geophysical framework of the northeastern North Carolina coastal system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thieler, E.R.; Foster, D.S.; Mallinson, D.M.; Himmelstoss, E.A.; McNinch, J.E.; List, J.H.; Hammar-Klose, E.S.

2013-01-01

The northeastern North Carolina coastal system, from False Cape, Virginia, to Cape Lookout, North Carolina, has been studied by a cooperative research program that mapped the Quaternary geologic framework of the estuaries, barrier islands, and inner continental shelf. This information provides a basis to understand the linkage between geologic framework, physical processes, and coastal evolution at time scales from storm events to millennia. The study area attracts significant tourism to its parks and beaches, contains a number of coastal communities, and supports a local fishing industry, all of which are impacted by coastal change. Knowledge derived from this research program can be used to mitigate hazards and facilitate effective management of this dynamic coastal system.

Real Time Flood Alert System (RTFAS) for Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lopez-Trujillo, Dianne

2010-01-01

The Real Time Flood Alert System is a web-based computer program, developed as a data integration tool, and designed to increase the ability of emergency managers to rapidly and accurately predict flooding conditions of streams in Puerto Rico. The system includes software and a relational database to determine the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, water levels in streams and reservoirs, and associated storms to determine hazardous and potential flood conditions. The computer program was developed as part of a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey Caribbean Water Science Center and the Puerto Rico Emergency Management Agency, and integrates information collected and processed by these two agencies and the National Weather Service.

Assessing societal vulnerability of U.S. Pacific Northwest communities to storm-induced coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Heather M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ruggerio, Peter; Allan, Jonathan; Corcoran, Patrick

2010-01-01

Progressive increases in storm intensities and extreme wave heights have been documented along the U.S. West Coast. Paired with global sea level rise and the potential for an increase in El Niño occurrences, these trends have substantial implications for the vulnerability of coastal communities to natural coastal hazards. Community vulnerability to hazards is characterized by the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of human-environmental systems that influence potential impacts. To demonstrate how societal vulnerability to coastal hazards varies with both physical and social factors, we compared community exposure and sensitivity to storm-induced coastal change scenarios in Tillamook (Oregon) and Pacific (Washington) Counties. While both are backed by low-lying coastal dunes, communities in these two counties have experienced different shoreline change histories and have chosen to use the adjacent land in different ways. Therefore, community vulnerability varies significantly between the two counties. Identifying the reasons for this variability can help land-use managers make decisions to increase community resilience and reduce vulnerability in spite of a changing climate.

Atmospheric Electrical Modeling in Support of the NASA F-106 Storm Hazards Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helsdon, John H., Jr.

1988-01-01

A recently developed storm electrification model (SEM) is used to investigate the operating environment of the F-106 airplane during the NASA Storm Hazards Project. The model is 2-D, time dependent and uses a bulkwater microphysical parameterization scheme. Electric charges and fields are included, and the model is fully coupled dynamically, microphysically and electrically. One flight showed that a high electric field was developed at the aircraft's operating altitude (28 kft) and that a strong electric field would also be found below 20 kft; however, this low-altitude, high-field region was associated with the presence of small hail, posing a hazard to the aircraft. An operational procedure to increase the frequency of low-altitude lightning strikes was suggested. To further the understanding of lightning within the cloud environment, a parameterization of the lightning process was included in the SEM. It accounted for the initiation, propagation, termination, and charge redistribution associated with an intracloud discharge. Finally, a randomized lightning propagation scheme was developed, and the effects of cloud particles on the initiation of lightning investigated.

Role of beach morphology in wave overtopping hazard assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phillips, Benjamin; Brown, Jennifer; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond; Plater, Andrew

2017-04-01

Understanding the role of beach morphology in controlling wave overtopping volume will further minimise uncertainties in flood risk assessments at coastal locations defended by engineered structures worldwide. XBeach is used to model wave overtopping volume for a 1:200 yr joint probability distribution of waves and water levels with measured, pre- and post-storm beach profiles. The simulation with measured bathymetry is repeated with and without morphological evolution enabled during the modelled storm event. This research assesses the role of morphology in controlling wave overtopping volumes for hazardous events that meet the typical design level of coastal defence structures. Results show disabling storm-driven morphology under-represents modelled wave overtopping volumes by up to 39% under high Hs conditions, and has a greater impact on the wave overtopping rate than the variability applied within the boundary conditions due to the range of wave-water level combinations that meet the 1:200 yr joint probability criterion. Accounting for morphology in flood modelling is therefore critical for accurately predicting wave overtopping volumes and the resulting flood hazard and to assess economic losses.

Losses Assessment of Crops due to Typhoon Disaster in China Coastal Areas —— A Case Study of Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, W.; Fang, W.

2015-12-01

Vulnerability which quantifies the loss ratio under different hazard intensity is an important feature of the natural disaster system and has important significance to natural disaster risk assessment. Agriculture is an outdoor industry with high risk of meteorological disasters. The strong winds, heavy rain and storm surge are main typhoon hazard factors to crops. To provide a quantitative research method for the loss evaluation of crops due to typhoon disaster we first revised two vulnerability curves for crops under comprehensive intensity of typhoon based on the simulated hazard data and loss data related to historical typhoon events landing on China from 1949 to 2014；and then established a storm surge vulnerability matrix of crops regarding Zhanjiang City of Guangdong Province as the study area ; finally, we put forward three storm surge fragility curves for crops representing different states of loss. The results can effectively describe the typhoon vulnerability for crops in China coastal areas so as to provide the input to post-disaster loss assessments and catastrophe modeling applications.

Study of Extreme Weather Hazards Using GRACE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Shum, C. K.; Shang, K.; Guo, J.; Schwartz, F. W.; Akyılmaz, O.; Feng, W.; Forootan, E.; LIU, G.; Zhong, M.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather events significantly affect humans and economics in the region. Synoptic and timely observations of these abrupt meteoro-hydrological hazards would benefit disaster management and improve storm forecasting. Contemporary processing of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin-satellite data at monthly sampling would miss or under-sample abrupt events such as large ice storms with durations much shorter than a month. Here, we employ the energy balance approach processing GRACE Level 1 data, which is flexible to allow sub-monthly solutions at daily sampling covering the genesis and evolution of large winter storms. We studied the 2008 Southeast China snow and ice storm, which lasted from mid-January to mid-February, and affected 21 out of China's 34 provinces with heavy snows, ice and freezing rains, caused extensive damage and transportation disruption, displaced nearly 1.7 million people, and claimed 129 lives. We also investigated the devastating North America blizzard which occurred during late January through mid-February 2010. The massive accumulations of snow and ice in both storms slightly changed the gravity field of the Earth, and were sensitive to the GRACE satellite measurements, manifested as transient terrestrial water storage (TWS) change. We compared our solutions with other available high temporal frequency GRACE solutions. The GRACE observed total storage change for both storms are in good agreement with in situ precipitation measurements, and with GRACE observations clearly show the complex genesis, decline, strengthening and melting phases depicting the detailed evolution of these example large snow storms.

Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

2015-12-01

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

PubMed Central

Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie

2014-01-01

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events. PMID:24806527

Hurricane hazards: a national threat

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Hurricanes bring destructive winds, storm surge, torrential rain, flooding, and tornadoes. A single storm can wreak havoc on coastal and inland communities and on natural areas over thousands of square miles. In 2005, Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma demonstrated the devastation that hurricanes can inflict and the importance of hurricane hazards research and preparedness. More than half of the U.S. population lives within 50 miles of a coast, and this number is increasing. Many of these areas, especially the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, will be in the direct path of future hurricanes. Hawaii is also vulnerable to hurricanes.

40 CFR 122.37 - Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Will the small MS4 storm water program... Special NPDES Program Requirements § 122.37 Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122... evaluation of the NPDES MS4 storm water program. EPA will re-evaluate the regulations based on data from the...

40 CFR 122.37 - Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Will the small MS4 storm water program... Special NPDES Program Requirements § 122.37 Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122... evaluation of the NPDES MS4 storm water program. EPA will re-evaluate the regulations based on data from the...

40 CFR 122.37 - Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true Will the small MS4 storm water program... Special NPDES Program Requirements § 122.37 Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122... evaluation of the NPDES MS4 storm water program. EPA will re-evaluate the regulations based on data from the...

Investigating extreme event loading on coastal bridges using wireless sensor technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gelineau, Douglas A.; Davis, Justin R.; Rice, Jennifer A.

2017-04-01

Coastal infrastructure, such as bridges, are susceptible to many forms of coastal hazards: particularly hurricane surge and wave loading. These two forms of loading can cause catastrophic damage to aging highway infrastructure. It is estimated that storm damage costs the United States about $50 Billion per year. In light of this, it is crucial that we understand the damaging forces placed on infrastructure during storm events so that we can develop safer and more resilient coastal structures. This paper presents the ongoing research to enable the efficient collection of extreme event loads acting on both the substructure and superstructure of low clearance, simple span, reinforced concrete bridges. Bridges of this type were commonly constructed during the 1950's and 60's and are particularly susceptible to deck unseating caused by hurricane surge and wave loading. The sensing technology used to capture this data must be ruggedized to survive in an extremely challenging environment, be designed to allow for redundancy in the event of sensors or other network components being lost in the storm, and be relatively low cost to allow for more bridges to be instrumented per storm event. The prototype system described in this paper includes wireless technology, rapid data transmission, and, for the sensors, self-contained power. While this specific application focuses on hurricane hazards, the framework can be extended to include other natural hazards.

Observations of Building Performance under Combined Wind and Surge Loading from Hurricane Harvey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lombardo, F.; Roueche, D. B.; Krupar, R. J.; Smith, D. J.; Soto, M. G.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coastline on August 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane to reach the US in twelve years. Wind gusts over 130 mph and storm surge as high as 12.5 ft caused widespread damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in coastal communities including Rockport, Fulton, Port Aransas and Aransas Pass. This study presents the methodology and preliminary observations of a coordinated response effort to document residential building performance under wind and storm surge loading. Over a twelve day survey period the study team assessed the performance of more than 1,000 individual, geo-located residential buildings. Assessments were logged via a smartphone application to facilitate rapid collection and collation of geotagged photographs, building attributes and structural details, and structural damage observations. Detailed assessments were also made of hazard intensity, specifically storm surge heights and both wind speed and direction indicators. Preliminary observations and findings will be presented, showing strong gradients in damage between inland and coastal regions of the affected areas that may be due in part to enhanced individual loading effects of wind and storm surge and potentially joint-hazard loading effects. Contributing factors to the many cases of disproportionate damage observed in close proximity will also be discussed. Ongoing efforts to relate building damage to near-surface hazard measurements (e.g., radar, anemometry) in close proximity will also be described.

Petroleum and hazardous material releases from industrial facilities associated with Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Sengul, Hatice

2010-04-01

Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

2010-12-01

Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as part of a NOAA IOOS national storm surge/inundation model test bed program.

Multi-factor evaluation indicator method for the risk assessment of atmospheric and oceanic hazard group due to the attack of tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Peng; Du, Mei

2018-06-01

China's southeast coastal areas frequently suffer from storm surge due to the attack of tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Hazards induced by TCs are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. The atmospheric and oceanic hazards cause serious disasters and substantial economic losses. This paper, from the perspective of hazard group, sets up a multi-factor evaluation method for the risk assessment of TC hazards using historical extreme data of concerned atmospheric and oceanic elements. Based on the natural hazard dynamic process, the multi-factor indicator system is composed of nine natural hazard factors representing intensity and frequency, respectively. Contributing to the indicator system, in order of importance, are maximum wind speed by TCs, attack frequency of TCs, maximum surge height, maximum wave height, frequency of gusts ≥ Scale 8, rainstorm intensity, maximum tidal range, rainstorm frequency, then sea-level rising rate. The first four factors are the most important, whose weights exceed 10% in the indicator system. With normalization processing, all the single-hazard factors are superposed by multiplying their weights to generate a superposed TC hazard. The multi-factor evaluation indicator method was applied to the risk assessment of typhoon-induced atmospheric and oceanic hazard group in typhoon-prone southeast coastal cities of China.

78 FR 57645 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-19

... (12-06- Julian Castro, Public Works, www.msc.fema.gov/ 3120P). Mayor, City of Storm Water lomc. San... Antonio (13-06- Julian Castro, Public Works, www.msc.fema.gov/ 0091P). Mayor, City of Storm Water lomc...- November 12, 2013......... 481105 Village (13-06- Patrick Davis, Highland Village team.com/lomrs.htm. 1723P...

Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment Along the Coast of Visakhapatnam, North-East Coast of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vivek, G.; Grinivasa Kumar, T.

2016-08-01

The current study area is coastal zone of Visakhapatnam, district of Andhra Pradesh along the coast of India. This area is mostly vulnerable to many disasters such as storms, cyclone, flood, tsunami and erosion. This area is considered as cyclone prone area because of frequently occurrence of the cyclones in this area. Recently the two tropical cyclones that formed in the Bay of Bengal are Hudhud (October 13, 2014) and Phylin (October 11, 2013), has caused devastating impacts on the eastern coast and shows that the country has lack of preparedness to cyclone, storm surge and related natural hazards. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared here are a blended and combined overlay of multiple hazards those affecting the coastal zone. The present study aims to develop a methodology for coastal multi-hazard vulnerability assessment. This study carried out using parameters like probability of coastal slope, tsunami arrival height, future sea level rise, coastal erosion and tidal range. The multi-hazard vulnerability maps prepared by overlaying of multi hazards those affecting the coastal zone. Multi-hazard vulnerability maps further reproduced as risk maps with the land use information. The decision making tools presented here can provide a useful information during the disaster for the evacuation process and to evolve a management strategy.

Integrating Hydrologic and Water Quality Models as a Decision Support Tool for Implementation of Low Impact Development in a Coastal Urban Watershed under Climate Variability and Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, N. B.

2016-12-01

Many countries concern about development and redevelopment efforts in urban regions to reduce the flood risk by considering hazards such as high-tide events, storm surge, flash floods, stormwater runoff, and impacts of sea level rise. Combining these present and future hazards with vulnerable characteristics found throughout coastal communities such as majority low-lying areas and increasing urban development, create scenarios for increasing exposure of flood hazard. As such, the most vulnerable areas require adaptation strategies and mitigation actions for flood hazard management. In addition, in the U.S., Numeric Nutrient Criteria (NNC) are a critical tool for protecting and restoring the designated uses of a waterbody with regard to nitrogen and phosphorus pollution. Strategies such as low impact development (LID) have been promoted in recent years as an alternative to traditional stormwater management and drainage to control both flooding and water quality impact. LID utilizes decentralized multifunctional site designs and incorporates on-site storm water management practices rather than conventional storm water management approaches that divert flow toward centralized facilities. How to integrate hydrologic and water quality models to achieve the decision support becomes a challenge. The Cross Bayou Watershed of Pinellas County in Tampa Bay, a highly urbanized coastal watershed, is utilized as a case study due to its sensitivity to flood hazards and water quality management within the watershed. This study will aid the County, as a decision maker, to implement its stormwater management policy and honor recent NNC state policy via demonstration of an integrated hydrologic and water quality model, including the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing Model v.4 (ICPR4) and the BMPTRAIN model as a decision support tool. The ICPR4 can be further coupled with the ADCIRC/SWAN model to reflect the storm surge and seal level rise in coastal regions.

KSC-2012-2669

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians remove the protective shroud from around NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B. Its twin, Radiation Belt Storm Probe A, in the background, has already been uncovered. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Development of Inundation Map for Bantayan Island, Cebu Using Delft3D-Flow Storm Surge Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadra, Camille; Suarez, John Kenneth; Biton, Nophi Ian; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Lapidez, John Phillip; Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

On average, 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility annually, making it vulnerable to different storm hazards. Apart from the frequency of tropical cyclones, the archipelagic nature of the country makes it particularly prone to storm surges. On 08 November 2013, Haiyan, a Category 5 Typhoon with maximum one-minute sustained wind speed of 315 kph, hit the central region of the Philippines. In its path, the howler devastated Bantayan Island, a popular tourist destination. The island is located north of Cebu City, the second largest metropolis of the Philippines in terms of populace. Having been directly hit by Typhoon Haiyan, Bantayan Island was severely damaged by strong winds and storm surges, with more than 11,000 houses totally destroyed while 5,000 more suffered minor damage. The adverse impacts of possible future storm surge events in the island can only be mitigated if hazard maps that depict inundation of the coastal areas of Bantayan are generated. To create such maps, Delft3D-Flow, a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate storm surges. These simulations were made over a 10-m per pixel resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) bathymetry. The results of the coastal inundation model for Typhoon Haiyan's storm surges were validated using data collected from field work and local government reports. The hydrodynamic model of Bantayan was then calibrated using the field data and further simulations were made with varying typhoon tracks. This was done to generate scenarios on the farthest possible inland incursion of storm surges. The output of the study is a detailed storm surge inundation map that depicts safe zones for development of infrastructure near coastal areas and for construction of coastal protection structures. The storm surge inundation map can also be used as basis for disaster preparedness plans of coastal communities threatened by approaching typhoons.

Identification of debris-flow hazards in warm deserts through analyzing past occurrences: Case study in South Mountain, Sonoran Desert, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorn, Ronald I.

2016-11-01

After recognition that debris flows co-occur with human activities, the next step in a hazards analysis involves estimating debris-flow probability. Prior research published in this journal in 2010 used varnish microlamination (VML) dating to determine a minimum occurrence of 5 flows per century over the last 8100 years in a small mountain range of South Mountain adjacent to neighborhoods of Phoenix, Arizona. This analysis led to the conclusion that debris flows originating in small mountain ranges in arid regions like the Sonoran Desert could pose a hazard. Two major precipitation events in the summer of 2014 generated 35 debris flows in the same study area of South Mountain-providing support for the importance of probability analysis as a key step in a hazards analysis in warm desert settings. Two distinct mechanisms generated the 2014 debris flows: intense precipitation on steep slopes in the first storm; and a firehose effect whereby runoff from the second storm was funneled rapidly by cleaned-out debris-flow chutes to remobilize Pleistocene debris-flow deposits. When compared to a global database on debris flows, the 2014 storms were among the most intense to generate desert debris flows - indicating that storms of lesser intensity are capable of generating debris flows in warm desert settings. The 87Sr/86Sr analyses of fines and clasts in South Mountain debris flows of different ages reveal that desert dust supplies the fines. Thus, wetter climatic periods of intense rock decay are not needed to resupply desert slopes with fines; instead, a combination of dust deposition supplying fines and dirt cracking generating coarse clasts can re-arm chutes in a warm desert setting with abundant dust.

The trauma signature of 2016 Hurricane Matthew and the psychosocial impact on Haiti

PubMed Central

Shultz, James M.; Cela, Toni; Marcelin, Louis Herns; Espinola, Maria; Heitmann, Ilva; Sanchez, Claudia; Jean Pierre, Arielle; Foo, Cheryl YunnShee; Thompson, Kip; Klotzbach, Philip; Espinel, Zelde; Rechkemmer, Andreas

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background. Hurricane Matthew was the most powerful tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic Basin season, bringing severe impacts to multiple nations including direct landfalls in Cuba, Haiti, Bahamas, and the United States. However, Haiti experienced the greatest loss of life and population disruption. Methods. An established trauma signature (TSIG) methodology was used to examine the psychological consequences of Hurricane Matthew in relation to the distinguishing features of this event. TSIG analyses described the exposures of Haitian citizens to the unique constellation of hazards associated with this tropical cyclone. A hazard profile, a matrix of psychological stressors, and a “trauma signature” summary for the affected population of Haiti - in terms of exposures to hazard, loss, and change - were created specifically for this natural ecological disaster. Results. Hazard characteristics of this event included: deluging rains that triggered mudslides along steep, deforested terrain; battering hurricane winds (Category 4 winds in the “eye-wall” at landfall) that dismantled the built environment and launched projectile debris; flooding “storm surge” that moved ashore and submerged villages on the Tiburon peninsula; and pummeling wave action that destroyed infrastructure along the coastline. Many coastal residents were left defenseless to face the ravages of the storm. Hurricane Matthew's slow forward progress as it remained over super-heated ocean waters added to the duration and degree of the devastation. Added to the havoc of the storm itself, the risks for infectious disease spread, particularly in relation to ongoing epidemics of cholera and Zika, were exacerbated. Conclusions. Hurricane Matthew was a ferocious tropical cyclone whose meteorological characteristics amplified the system's destructive force during the storm's encounter with Haiti, leading to significant mortality, injury, and psychological trauma. PMID:28321360

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Ike.

Using Adaptive Mesh Refinment to Simulate Storm Surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandli, K. T.; Dawson, C.

2012-12-01

Coastal hazards related to strong storms such as hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most frequently recurring and wide spread hazards to coastal communities. Storm surges are among the most devastating effects of these storms, and their prediction and mitigation through numerical simulations is of great interest to coastal communities that need to plan for the subsequent rise in sea level during these storms. Unfortunately these simulations require a large amount of resolution in regions of interest to capture relevant effects resulting in a computational cost that may be intractable. This problem is exacerbated in situations where a large number of similar runs is needed such as in design of infrastructure or forecasting with ensembles of probable storms. One solution to address the problem of computational cost is to employ adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) algorithms. AMR functions by decomposing the computational domain into regions which may vary in resolution as time proceeds. Decomposing the domain as the flow evolves makes this class of methods effective at ensuring that computational effort is spent only where it is needed. AMR also allows for placement of computational resolution independent of user interaction and expectation of the dynamics of the flow as well as particular regions of interest such as harbors. The simulation of many different applications have only been made possible by using AMR-type algorithms, which have allowed otherwise impractical simulations to be performed for much less computational expense. Our work involves studying how storm surge simulations can be improved with AMR algorithms. We have implemented relevant storm surge physics in the GeoClaw package and tested how Hurricane Ike's surge into Galveston Bay and up the Houston Ship Channel compares to available tide gauge data. We will also discuss issues dealing with refinement criteria, optimal resolution and refinement ratios, and inundation.

Large Eddy Simulations of Severe Convection Induced Turbulence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmad, Nash'at; Proctor, Fred

2011-01-01

Convective storms can pose a serious risk to aviation operations since they are often accompanied by turbulence, heavy rain, hail, icing, lightning, strong winds, and poor visibility. They can cause major delays in air traffic due to the re-routing of flights, and by disrupting operations at the airports in the vicinity of the storm system. In this study, the Terminal Area Simulation System is used to simulate five different convective events ranging from a mesoscale convective complex to isolated storms. The occurrence of convection induced turbulence is analyzed from these simulations. The validation of model results with the radar data and other observations is reported and an aircraft-centric turbulence hazard metric calculated for each case is discussed. The turbulence analysis showed that large pockets of significant turbulence hazard can be found in regions of low radar reflectivity. Moderate and severe turbulence was often found in building cumulus turrets and overshooting tops.

Storm-based Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Probabilities and Warnings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, K. M.; Meyer, T.; Kingfield, D.

2017-12-01

A new cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning probability algorithm has been developed using machine-learning methods. With storm-based inputs of Earth Networks' in-cloud lightning, Vaisala's CG lightning, multi-radar/multi-sensor (MRMS) radar derived products including the Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) and Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL), and near storm environmental data including lapse rate and CAPE, a random forest algorithm was trained to produce probabilities of CG lightning up to one-hour in advance. As part of the Prototype Probabilistic Hazard Information experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed in 2016 and 2017, National Weather Service forecasters were asked to use this CG lightning probability guidance to create rapidly updating probability grids and warnings for the threat of CG lightning for 0-60 minutes. The output from forecasters was shared with end-users, including emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists, as part of an integrated warning team.

Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

2012-04-01

In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of relevant historical cyclones and on the simulation of the associated wave and cyclonic surge. The combined local sea elevations, called "set-up", are then fitted with a statistical distribution in order to obtain its time return characteristics. Several run-ups are then extracted, the inundation areas are calculated and the relative losses of the affected assets are deduced. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment and the exposed elements location and seismic vulnerability result from past public risk assessment studies. The loss estimations are computed for several return time periods, measured in percentage of buildings being in a given EMS-98 damage state per grid block, which are then converted into loss ratio. In parallel, an asset estimation is conducted. It is mainly focused on private housing, but it considers some major public infrastructures as well. The final outcome of this work is a direct economic loss-frequency plot for earthquake and storm surge. The Probable Maximum Loss and the Average Annual Loss derivate from this risk curve. In addition, different sources of uncertainty are identified through the loss estimation process. The full propagation of these uncertainties can provide an interval of confidence, which can be assigned to the risk-curve and we show how such additional information can be useful for risk comparison.

Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

PubMed Central

Price, Colin

2008-01-01

Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, often resulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods, forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence, etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging storms can be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF] sensors), to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sensors), and even global scales (using extremely low frequency [ELF] sensors). Using sensors that detect the radio waves emitted by each lightning discharge, it is now possible to observe and track continuously distant thunderstorms using ground networks of sensors. In addition to the number of lightning discharges, these sensors can also provide information on lightning characteristics such as the ratio between intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, the polarity of the lightning discharge, peak currents, charge removal, etc. It has been shown that changes in some of these lightning characteristics during thunderstorms are often related to changes in the severity of the storms. In this paper different lightning observing systems are described, and a few examples are provided showing how lightning may be used to monitor storm hazards around the globe, while also providing the possibility of supplying short term forecasts, called nowcasting. PMID:27879700

Aircraft measurements and analysis of severe storms: 1975 field experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sinclair, P. C.

1976-01-01

Three aircraft and instrumentation systems were acquired in support of the severe storm surveillance program. The data results indicate that the original concept of a highly mobile research aircraft capability for obtaining detailed measurements of wind, temperature, dew point, etc., near and within specifically designated severe storms is entirely feasible and has been demonstrated for the first time by this program. This program is unique in that it is designed to be highly mobile in order to move to and/or with the developing storm systems to obtain the necessary measurements. Previous programs have all been fixed to a particular location and therefore have had to wait for the storms to come within their network. The present research is designed around a highly mobile aircraft measurements group in order to maximize the storm cases during the field measurements program.

Fifty-Year Flood-Inundation Maps for Santa Rosa de Aguan, Honduras

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mastin, Mark C.; Olsen, T.D.

2002-01-01

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the coastal municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan that are prone to oceanic storm-surge flooding and wave action. The 50-year flood on the Rio Aguan (4,270 cubic meters per second), would inundate most of the area surveyed for this municipality and beyond. Therefore a detailed numerical hydraulic model was not developed for this municipality as it was for the others. The 50-year storm surge would likely produce higher water levels than the 50-year flood on the river during normal astronomical tides. The elevation of the 50-year storm surge was estimated to be 4.35 meters above normal sea level, based on hurricane probabilities and published storm-surge elevations associated with various hurricane categories. Flood-inundation maps, including areas of wave-action hazard and a color-shaded elevation map, were created from the available data and the estimated 50-year storm tide. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the hazard areas are available on a computer in the municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Data Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the maps in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report.

Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Inundation and Velocity Hazard Mapping of the State of Andhra Pradesh (India) using ADCIRC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brackins, J. T.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

2017-12-01

The Northern Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal region, including parts of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, is the largest bay in the world and is structured in such a manner as to produce the world's largest tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges (SS), with approximately five surge events greater than 5 meters in magnitude each decade. (Needham et al. 2015). Although some studies have been performed to attempt to capture the magnitude and location of historical surges (Shaji et al. 2014) and to model surges in the immediate sense, there is a notable lack of application to the effects on coastal infrastructure in these areas. Given that these areas are some of the most densely populated and least economically able to prepare and recover, it is important to consider the potential effects of storm surge to discover areas where improvements can be made with the limited resources available to these areas. To this end, an ADvanced-CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model (Luettich and Westerink 2004) was created for the Bay of Bengal, using the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO 2014) as bathymetric and topographic data, and a combination of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) records for storm tracks. For the state of Andhra Pradesh, several major TC events ranging from 1977 to 2014 were selected to be modeled with the goal of creating hazard maps of storm surge inundation and velocity for the state. These hazard maps would be used to identify high-vulnerability areas with the goal of implementing land-use planning and coastal development practices that will aid in ameliorating both the loss of life and economic damages sustained as a result of these TCs.

Assessing the Potential Impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on the California Rim Fire Burn Scar Through Debris Flow Hazard Mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Larcom, S.; Grigsby, S.; Ustin, S.

2015-12-01

Wildfires are a perennial issue for California, and the current record-breaking drought is exacerbating the potential problems for the state. Fires leave behind burn scars characterized by diminished vegetative cover and abundant bare soil, and these areas are especially susceptible to storm events that pose an elevated risk of debris flows and sediment-rich sheet wash. This study focused on the 2013 Rim Fire that devastated significant portions of Stanislaus National Forest and Yosemite National Park, and utilized readily available NASA JPL SRTM elevation data and AVIRIS spectral imaging data to construct a debris flow hazard map that assesses mass wasting risk for the Rim Fire burn scar. This study consisted entirely of remotely sensed data, which was processed in software programs such as ENVI, GRASS GIS, ArcMap, and Google Earth. Parameters that were taken into consideration when constructing this map include hill slope (greater than 30 percent rise), burn severity (assessed by calculating NDVI), and erodibility of the soil (by comparing spectral reflectance of AVIRIS images with the reference spectra of illite). By calculating percent of total burn area, 6% was classified as low risk, 55% as medium risk, and 39% as high risk. In addition, this study assessed the importance of the 2015-2016 El Niño, which is projected to be one of the strongest on record, by studying historic rainfall records and storm events of past El Niño's. Hydrological and infrastructural problems that could be caused by short-term convective or long-term synoptic storms and subsequent debris flows were explored as well.

40 CFR 122.32 - As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... regulated under the NPDES storm water program? 122.32 Section 122.32 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program? (a) Unless you qualify for a... a petition to the NPDES permitting authority to require an NPDES permit for your discharge of storm...

40 CFR 122.32 - As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... regulated under the NPDES storm water program? 122.32 Section 122.32 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program? (a) Unless you qualify for a... a petition to the NPDES permitting authority to require an NPDES permit for your discharge of storm...

40 CFR 122.32 - As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... regulated under the NPDES storm water program? 122.32 Section 122.32 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL... operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program? (a) Unless you qualify for a... a petition to the NPDES permitting authority to require an NPDES permit for your discharge of storm...

ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.

2009-12-01

The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future West Coast storms. A task of ARkStorm is to elevate the visibility of the very real threats to human life, property, and ecosystems posed by extreme storms on the U.S. West Coast. This enhanced visibility will help increase the preparedness of the emergency management community and the public to such storms. ARkStorm is scheduled to be completed by September 2010 and will be the basis of a state-wide emergency response drill, Golden Guardian, led by the California Emergency Management Agency in 2011.

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge stations located in the North Adriatic coastal areas from 1989 to 2011. These data, together with the sea-level rise scenarios for the considered future timeframe, represent the input for the application of the Joint Probability method (Pugh and Vassie, 1979), which allows the evaluation of the maximum height of extreme storm surge events with different return period and the number of extreme events per year. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems to manage, process, analyse, and visualize data and employs Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis to integrate stakeholders preferences and experts judgments into the analysis in order to obtain a total risk index in the considered region. The final outputs are represented by GIS-based risk maps which allow the communication of the potential consequences of extreme storm surge to decision makers and stakeholders. Moreover, they can support the establishment of relative priorities for intervention through the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Finally the produced output can represent a basis for definition of storm surge hazard and storm surge risk management plans according to the Floods Directive. The preliminary results of the RRA application in the CLIMDAT project will be here presented and discussed.

SLR-induced temporal and spatial changes in hotspots to storms along the Catalan coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiménez, Jose A.; Sanuy, Marc; Valdemoro, Herminia

2017-04-01

Coastal hotspots to storms can be simply defined as locations where the magnitude of the storm-induced risk is significantly higher than neighbouring areas for a given probability of occurrence. Their distribution along the coast depends on the magnitude of storm-induced hazards and on the coastal resilient capacity. Increasing damages observed in our coasts during the last decades have driven the need to include specific chapters on risk management in ICZM plans. In this context, the identification of hotspots is one of the first points to be considered. This permits to better allocate resources for risk management by concentrating efforts in specific locations. Within this context, we have identified hotspots along the Catalan coast (Spanish Mediterranean) to storm-induced erosion and inundation hazards. This has been done by using the methodology developed within the RISCKIT EU project where storm-induced hazards (erosion and inundation) are characterised in probabilistic terms by using simple inundation and erosion models as a function of water level and wave climates and local coastal morphology. The final result was a set of inundation and erosion hotspots along the coast under current conditions for selected probabilities of occurrences, P. For low return periods, Tr, few hotspots appear and they represent coastal locations frequently affected by the corresponding hazard. On the other, for high Tr, a larger number (and of larger extension) of hotspots appear, that although less frequently affected, they are subjected to a larger impact. Although this is valuable information for coastal managers, it is only valid for making decisions for a short time horizon or under steady conditions. However, since the proper time scale for coastal planning is in the order of several decades, it is not likely that conditions will remain steady. Thus, although most of existing predictions of climate-induce changes in storminess in the Mediterranean indicate the absence of any significant increasing trend, this does not imply that storm-induced coastal hazards will not change. Thus, SLR will induce a series of long-term changes in coastal areas that although not directly affecting storminess will modify the coastal resilient capacity and, thus, changing coastal storm risks. To provide long-term predictions of hotspot, we have assessed the long-term SLR influence on erosion and inundation risks. To do this, an equilibrium-based approach has been adopted in which background SLR-induced shoreline retreat and beach vertical response are assessed for different SLR scenarios. Obtained values are used to predict future coastal morphology and to compute the resilient capacity for each beach at any time horizon. With this information, future erosion and inundation risks and corresponding new spatial distributions of coastal hotspots are calculated for selected probabilities. Obtained results show a significant increase in hotspots along the coast, with most of the changes concentrated in areas with small accommodation space and dominated by mild slope shorefaces. The extension of the new hotspots seems to indicate than unless land planning is considered as a tool for risk reduction, massive protection need to be implemented in certain areas.

Nontraditional Settlement Patterns and Typhoon Hazard on Contemporary Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands

PubMed

Spennemann

1996-05-01

Low-lying islands and atolls are particularly prone to storm surges created by tropical depressions and typhoons. This paper presents a case study of traditional and contemporary settlement patterns of Majuro, the capital of the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and discusses its vulnerability to such storm surges. The paper shows that the application of traditional knowledge extends to the realm of urban planning and that, in fact, ignoring this traditional knowledge as expressed in pre-World War II settlement patterns, exposes urban development to increased flood hazards, a risk which may exact a price too high in life and property.

USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

2008-12-01

The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a detailed examination on climatic change forces that could exacerbate the problems. Similar to the ShakeOut Scenario, the Winter Storm Scenario is designing a large but scientifically plausible physical event followed by an expert analysis of the secondary hazards, and the physical, social, and economic consequences. Unlike the earthquake scenario, the winter storm event may occur over days, weeks, and possibly months, and the stakeholder community is broadening to include resource managers as well as local governments and the emergency and lifeline management communities. Developing plans for this Scenario will be presented at this session, and feedback will be welcomed.

76 FR 66891 - Submission for OMB Review; Comment Request

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-10-28

... Respondents: 265. Average Hours per Response: StormReady, Tsunami-Ready and StormReady/TsunamiReady... request is for revision of a current information collection. The StormReady, TsunamiReady and and StormReady/TsunamiReady Programs are voluntary programs offered to provide guidance and incentive to...

USGS St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

2011-01-01

Extreme storms, sea-level rise, and the health of marine communities are some of the major societal and environmental issues impacting our Nation's marine and coastal realm. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in St. Petersburg, Fla., investigates processes related to these ecosystems and the societal implications of natural hazards and resource sustainability. As one of three centers nationwide conducting research within the USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program, the center is integral towards developing an understanding of physical processes that will contribute to rational decisions regarding the use and stewardship of national coastal and marine environments.

Open Circuit Resonant Sensors for Composite Damage Detection and Diagnosis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mielnik, John J., Jr.

2011-01-01

Under the Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) program work was begun to investigate the feasibility of sensor systems for detecting and diagnosing damage to aircraft composite structures and materials. Specific interest for this study was in damage initiated by environmental storm hazards and the direct effect of lightning strikes on the material structures of a composite aircraft in flight. A series of open circuit resonant sensors was designed, fabricated, characterized, and determined to be a potentially viable means for damage detection and diagnosis of composite materials. The results of this research and development effort are documented in this report.

Leaching of additives from construction materials to urban storm water runoff.

PubMed

Burkhardt, M; Zuleeg, S; Vonbank, R; Schmid, P; Hean, S; Lamani, X; Bester, K; Boller, M

2011-01-01

Urban water management requires further clarification about pollutants in storm water. Little is known about the release of organic additives used in construction materials and the impact of these compounds to storm water runoff. We investigated sources and pathways of additives used in construction materials, i.e., biocides in facades' render as well as root protection products in bitumen membranes for rooftops. Under wet-weather conditions, the concentrations of diuron, terbutryn, carbendazim, irgarol 1051 (all from facades) and mecoprop in storm water and receiving water exceeded the predicted no-effect concentrations values and the Swiss water quality standard of 0.1 microg/L. Under laboratory conditions maximum concentrations of additives were in the range of a few milligrams and a few hundred micrograms per litre in runoff of facades and bitumen membranes. Runoff from aged materials shows approximately one to two orders of magnitude lower concentrations. Concentrations decreased also during individual runoff events. In storm water and receiving water the occurrence of additives did not follow the typical first flush model. This can be explained by the release lasting over the time of rainfall and the complexity of the drainage network. Beside the amounts used, the impact of construction materials containing hazardous additives on water quality is related clearly to the age of the buildings and the separated sewer network. The development of improved products regarding release of hazardous additives is the most efficient way of reducing the pollutant load from construction materials in storm water runoff.

Seismic Landslide Hazard for the City of Berkeley, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miles, Scott B.; Keefer, David K.

2001-01-01

This map describes the possible hazard from earthquake-induced landslides for the city of Berkeley, CA. The hazard depicted by this map was modeled for a scenario corresponding to an M=7.1 earthquake on the Hayward, CA fault. This scenario magnitude is associated with complete rupture of the northern and southern segments of the Hayward fault, an event that has an estimated return period of about 500 years. The modeled hazard also corresponds to completely saturated ground-water conditions resulting from an extreme storm event or series of storm events. This combination of earthquake and ground-water scenarios represents a particularly severe state of hazard for earthquake-induced landslides. For dry ground-water conditions, overall hazard will be less, while relative patterns of hazard are likely to change. Purpose: The map is intended as a tool for regional planning. Any site-specific planning or analysis should be undertaken with the assistance of a qualified geotechnical engineer. This hazard map should not be used as a substitute to the State of California Seismic Hazard Zones map for the same area. (See California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology, 1999). As previously noted for maps of this type by Wieczorek and others (1985), this map should not be used as a basis to determine the absolute risk from seismically triggered landslides at any locality, as the sole justification for zoning or rezoning any parcel, for detailed design of any lifeline, for site-specific hazard-reduction planning, or for setting or modifying insurance rates.

Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelbert, Anna; Balch, Christopher; Pulkkinen, Antti; Egbert, Gary D; Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Fujii, Ikuko

2017-01-01

Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

Methodology for time-domain estimation of storm time geoelectric fields using the 3-D magnetotelluric response tensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelbert, Anna; Balch, Christopher C.; Pulkkinen, Antti; Egbert, Gary D.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Fujii, Ikuko

2017-07-01

Geoelectric fields at the Earth's surface caused by magnetic storms constitute a hazard to the operation of electric power grids and related infrastructure. The ability to estimate these geoelectric fields in close to real time and provide local predictions would better equip the industry to mitigate negative impacts on their operations. Here we report progress toward this goal: development of robust algorithms that convolve a magnetic storm time series with a frequency domain impedance for a realistic three-dimensional (3-D) Earth, to estimate the local, storm time geoelectric field. Both frequency domain and time domain approaches are presented and validated against storm time geoelectric field data measured in Japan. The methods are then compared in the context of a real-time application.

A probabilistic storm surge risk model for the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabbert, Jan-Henrik; Reiner, Andreas; Deepen, Jan; Rodda, Harvey; Mai, Stephan; Pfeifer, Dietmar

2010-05-01

The German North Sea coast is highly exposed to storm surges. Due to its concave bay-like shape mainly orientated to the North-West, cyclones from Western, North-Western and Northern directions together with astronomical tide cause storm surges accumulating the water in the German bight. Due to the existence of widespread low-lying areas (below 5m above mean sea level) behind the defenses, large areas including large economic values are exposed to coastal flooding including cities like Hamburg or Bremen. The occurrence of extreme storm surges in the past like e.g. in 1962 taking about 300 lives and causing widespread flooding and 1976 raised the awareness and led to a redesign of the coastal defenses which provide a good level of protection for today's conditions. Never the less the risk of flooding exists. Moreover an amplification of storm surge risk can be expected under the influence of climate change. The Baltic Sea coast is also exposed to storm surges, which are caused by other meteorological patterns. The influence of the astronomical tide is quite low instead high water levels are induced by strong winds only. Since the exceptional extreme event in 1872 storm surge hazard has been more or less forgotten. Although such an event is very unlikely to happen, it is not impossible. Storm surge risk is currently (almost) non-insurable in Germany. The potential risk is difficult to quantify as there are almost no historical losses available. Also premiums are difficult to assess. Therefore a new storm surge risk model is being developed to provide a basis for a probabilistic quantification of potential losses from coastal inundation. The model is funded by the GDV (German Insurance Association) and is planned to be used within the German insurance sector. Results might be used for a discussion of insurance cover for storm surge. The model consists of a probabilistic event driven hazard and a vulnerability module, furthermore an exposure interface and a financial module to account for specific (re-) insurance conditions. This contribution will mainly concentrate on the hazard module. The hazard is covered by an event simulation engine enabling Monte Carlo simulations. The event generation is done on-the-fly. A classification of historical storm surges is used based on observed sea water levels at gauging stations and extended literature research. To characterize the origin of storm events and storm surges caused by those, also meteorological parameters like wind speed and wind direction are being used. If high water levels along the coast are mainly caused by strong wind from particular directions as observed at the North Sea, there is a clear empirical relationship between wind and surge (where surge is defined as the wind-driven component of the sea water level) which can be described by the ATWS (Average Transformed Wind speed). The parameters forming the load at the coastal defense elements are water level and wave parameters like significant wave height, wave period and wave direction. To assess the wave characteristics at the coast the numerical model SWAN (Simulating Waves Near Shore) from TU Delft has been used. To account for different probabilities of failure and inundation the coast is split into segments with similar defense characteristics like type of defense, height, width, orientation and others. The chosen approach covers the most relevant failure mechanisms for coastal dikes induced by wave overtopping and overflow. Dune failure is also considered in the model. Inundation of the hinterland after defense failure is modeled using a simple dynamical 2d-approach resulting in distributed water depths and flood outlines for each segment. Losses can be estimated depending on the input exposure data either coordinate based for single buildings or aggregated on postal code level using a set of depths-damage functions.

Status of Storm Water Pollution in the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-09-01

71 Appendix C: Air Force Bases That Applied for the Group Permit ......................... 72 Appendix D: E-Mail Message...34......................................... 25 8. Pollutant Bench Mark Values ....................... 26 9. Air Force Bases Impacted by the Proposed "NPDES General Permit For Storm Water...Metals, Cyanide, Phenols .......................... 70 24. Toxic Pollutants and Hazardous Substances ......... 71 25. Air Force Bases That Applied For

Alabama-Mississippi Coastal Classification Maps - Perdido Pass to Cat Island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Peterson, Russell L.

2005-01-01

The primary purpose of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Project is to provide accurate representations of pre-storm ground conditions for areas that are designated high-priority because they have dense populations or valuable resources that are at risk from storm waves. Another purpose of the project is to develop a geomorphic (land feature) coastal classification that, with only minor modification, can be applied to most coastal regions in the United States. A Coastal Classification Map describing local geomorphic features is the first step toward determining the hazard vulnerability of an area. The Coastal Classification Maps of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Project present ground conditions such as beach width, dune elevations, overwash potential, and density of development. In order to complete a hazard vulnerability assessment, that information must be integrated with other information, such as prior storm impacts and beach stability. The Coastal Classification Maps provide much of the basic information for such an assessment and represent a critical component of a storm-impact forecasting capability. The map above shows the areas covered by this web site. Click on any of the location names or outlines to view the Coastal Classification Map for that area.

Using Geomorphologic Data and Numerical Hydrodynamic Models To Delineate Flood Hazards On Alluvial Fans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, D.; Shaller, P.; Cattarossi, A.

The 100-year flood hazard was reappraised for a parcel of land in the central Coachella Valley of southern California, USA, by use of geologic mapping, geomorphic analy- sis, analysis of historical aerial photos, and computer-aided hydrologic modeling. An- nual precipitation is only about 6 inches, but the area is subject to rare but extreme rainfall events resulting from thunderstorms and hurricanes. The principal flooding hazard at the parcel is from nearby Thousand Palms Wash, which transmits drainage directly from the Little San Bernardino Mountains into the central Coachella Valley. A perceived secondary flood hazard originates from several drainage basins in the Little San Bernardino Mountains northwest of the Indio Hills. This source was the subject of this investigation. The San Andreas fault, which consists of two major active strands in the upper Coachella Valley area, dominates the geology, landforms, groundwater conditions and surface hydrology in the study area. Gouge associated with the faults impedes groundwater flow, resulting in shallow groundwater levels, lush vegetation, and the stabilization of large masses of sand dunes along the fault traces. Sand forms dominate the surface of the Coachella Valley and pose two barriers to storm water flow: a physical barrier created by their height, and a hydrologic barrier caused by their high infiltration rate. Probable routes of future storm water flows in the study area were evaluated using historical aerial photos of flood events that struck the area between 1974 and 1991. The Willow Hole gap is the most direct route for storm waters from the Little San Bernardino Mountains to the central Coachella Valley. Historical air photo data indicate that storm water from the Little San Bernardino Mountains does not normally flow through the gap, but rather is shunted around a large shutter ridge associated with the San Andreas fault. Two FLO-2D hydrologic models were developed to evaluate the 100-year flooding potential at the subject property from sources in the Little San Bernardino Mountains. The upstream model, which was run assuming no infiltration, was used as input to the downstream model, which was run using three different values for infiltration. Where infiltration was considered at all (even at a level much lower than the minimum predicted from soils mapping of the area), no storm water from the Little San Bernardino Mountains was able reach the 1 subject property whatsoever. The subject property therefore does not appear to be at risk from secondary flooding sources in the Little San Bernardino Mountains in the 100-year storm. This case study was performed in accordance with new guidelines for flood hazards on alluvial fans issued by the Federal Emergency Management Agency who is the lead agency in the USA that identifies flood prone areas. 2

STEREO as a "Planetary Hazards" Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guhathakurta, M.; Thompson, B. J.

2014-01-01

NASA's twin STEREO probes, launched in 2006, have advanced the art and science of space weather forecasting more than any other spacecraft or solar observatory. By surrounding the Sun, they provide previously-impossible early warnings of threats approaching Earth as they develop on the solar far side. They have also revealed the 3D shape and inner structure of CMEs-massive solar storms that can trigger geomagnetic storms when they collide with Earth. This improves the ability of forecasters to anticipate the timing and severity of such events. Moreover, the unique capability of STEREO to track CMEs in three dimensions allows forecasters to make predictions for other planets, giving rise to the possibility of interplanetary space weather forecasting too. STEREO is one of those rare missions for which "planetary hazards" refers to more than one world. The STEREO probes also hold promise for the study of comets and potentially hazardous asteroids.

Thunderstorm hazards flight research: Storm hazards 1980 overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deal, P. L.; Keyser, G. L.; Fisher, B. D.; Crabill, N. L.

1981-01-01

A highly instrumented NASA F-106B aircraft, modified for the storm hazards mission and protected against direct lightning strikes, was used in conjunction with various ground based radar and lightning measurement systems to collect data during thunderstorm penetration flights. During 69 thunderstorm penetrations, there were 10 direct lightning strikes to the aircraft. No problems were encountered with any of the aircraft's systems as a result of the strikes and the research instrumentation performed as designed. Electromagnetic characteristics of nine strikes were recorded, and the results of other experiments confirm the theory that X-ray radiation and nitrous oxide gas are being produced by processes associated directly with thunderstorm electric fields and lightning discharges. A better understanding of aircraft lightning attachment mechanisms and strike zones is being accomplished by careful inspection, identification, and documentation of lightning attachment points and swept stroke paths following each strike to the aircraft.

Geomagnetic Observatory Data for Real-Time Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Finn, C. A.; Rigler, E. J.; Kelbert, A.; Bedrosian, P.

2015-12-01

The global network of magnetic observatories represents a unique collective asset for the scientific community. Historically, magnetic observatories have supported global magnetic-field mapping projects and fundamental research of the Earth's interior and surrounding space environment. More recently, real-time data streams from magnetic observatories have become an important contributor to multi-sensor, operational monitoring of evolving space weather conditions, especially during magnetic storms. In this context, the U.S. Geological Survey (1) provides real-time observatory data to allied space weather monitoring projects, including those of NOAA, the U.S. Air Force, NASA, several international agencies, and private industry, (2) collaborates with Schlumberger to provide real-time geomagnetic data needed for directional drilling for oil and gas in Alaska, (3) develops products for real-time evaluation of hazards for the electric-power grid industry that are associated with the storm-time induction of geoelectric fields in the Earth's conducting lithosphere. In order to implement strategic priorities established by the USGS Natural Hazards Mission Area and the National Science and Technology Council, and with a focus on developing new real-time products, the USGS is (1) leveraging data management protocols already developed by the USGS Earthquake Program, (2) developing algorithms for mapping geomagnetic activity, a collaboration with NASA and NOAA, (3) supporting magnetotelluric surveys and developing Earth conductivity models, a collaboration with Oregon State University and the NSF's EarthScope Program, (4) studying the use of geomagnetic activity maps and Earth conductivity models for real-time estimation of geoelectric fields, (5) initiating geoelectric monitoring at several observatories, (6) validating real-time estimation algorithms against historical geomagnetic and geoelectric data. The success of these long-term projects is subject to funding constraints and will require coordination with partners in government, academia, and private industry.

Thyroid storm. A review of cases at University of California, San Francisco.

PubMed

Roizen, M; Becker, C E

1971-10-01

Retrospective study of the diagnosis and management of the 8 cases of thyroid storm in a series of 400 hyperthyroid patients led to conclusion that thyroid storm is a clinical diagnosis based on a life-endangering illness in a hyperthyroid patient whose hyperthyroidism has been severely exacerbated by a serious precipitating illness, and that storm is manifest by the symptoms of hyperpyrexia, tachycardia and striking alterations in consciousness. No laboratory tests were diagnostic of storm, and the underlying precipitating cause of thyroid storm was the major determinant of survival. Vigorous therapy must include blocking synthesis of thyroid hormones with antithyroid drugs, blocking release of preformed hormone with iodine, meticulous attention to hydration and supportive therapy, as well as correction of precipitating cause of storm. The blocking of the sympathetic nervous system with reserpine or guanethidine or with alpha and beta blocking drugs may be exceedingly hazardous and requires skillful management and constant monitoring in a critically ill patient.

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980–2012

PubMed Central

FUSSELL, ELIZABETH; CURRAN, SARA R.; DUNBAR, MATTHEW D.; BABB, MICHAEL A.; THOMPSON, LUANNE; MEIJER-IRONS, JACQUELINE

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies. PMID:29326480

Weather-Related Hazards and Population Change: A Study of Hurricanes and Tropical Storms in the United States, 1980-2012.

PubMed

Fussell, Elizabeth; Curran, Sara R; Dunbar, Matthew D; Babb, Michael A; Thompson, Luanne; Meijer-Irons, Jacqueline

2017-01-01

Environmental determinists predict that people move away from places experiencing frequent weather hazards, yet some of these areas have rapidly growing populations. This analysis examines the relationship between weather events and population change in all U.S. counties that experienced hurricanes and tropical storms between 1980 and 2012. Our database allows for more generalizable conclusions by accounting for heterogeneity in current and past hurricane events and losses and past population trends. We find that hurricanes and tropical storms affect future population growth only in counties with growing, high-density populations, which are only 2 percent of all counties. In those counties, current year hurricane events and related losses suppress future population growth, although cumulative hurricane-related losses actually elevate population growth. Low-density counties and counties with stable or declining populations experience no effect of these weather events. Our analysis provides a methodologically informed explanation for contradictory findings in prior studies.

Spatially explicit shallow landslide susceptibility mapping over large areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bellugi, Dino; Dietrich, William E.; Stock, Jonathan D.; McKean, Jim; Kazian, Brian; Hargrove, Paul

2011-01-01

Recent advances in downscaling climate model precipitation predictions now yield spatially explicit patterns of rainfall that could be used to estimate shallow landslide susceptibility over large areas. In California, the United States Geological Survey is exploring community emergency response to the possible effects of a very large simulated storm event and to do so it has generated downscaled precipitation maps for the storm. To predict the corresponding pattern of shallow landslide susceptibility across the state, we have used the model Shalstab (a coupled steady state runoff and infinite slope stability model) which susceptibility spatially explicit estimates of relative potential instability. Such slope stability models that include the effects of subsurface runoff on potentially destabilizing pore pressure evolution require water routing and hence the definition of upslope drainage area to each potential cell. To calculate drainage area efficiently over a large area we developed a parallel framework to scale-up Shalstab and specifically introduce a new efficient parallel drainage area algorithm which produces seamless results. The single seamless shallow landslide susceptibility map for all of California was accomplished in a short run time, and indicates that much larger areas can be efficiently modelled. As landslide maps generally over predict the extent of instability for any given storm. Local empirical data on the fraction of predicted unstable cells that failed for observed rainfall intensity can be used to specify the likely extent of hazard for a given storm. This suggests that campaigns to collect local precipitation data and detailed shallow landslide location maps after major storms could be used to calibrate models and improve their use in hazard assessment for individual storms.

The Impact of Climate Change on New York City's Coastal Flood Hazard: Increasing Flood Heights from the Pre-Industrial to 2300 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, A. J.; Mann, M. E.; Emanuel, K.; Kopp, R. E.; Lin, N.; Alley, R. B.; Horton, B.; Deconto, R. M.; Donnelly, J. P.; Pollard, D.

2017-12-01

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the pre-industrial through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP 8.5 runs of three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections include the collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet to assess future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared to pre-industrial or modern flood heights. We find that the 1-in-500-year flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 3.9 - 4.8 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100, and ranges from 2.8 - 13.0 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25 m flood has decreased from 500 years prior to 1800 to 25 years during 1970-2005, and further decreases to 5 years by 2030 - 2045 in 95% of our simulations.

Attenuation of Storm Surge Flooding By Wetlands in the Chesapeake Bay: An Integrated Geospatial Framework Evaluating Impacts to Critical Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalid, A.; Haddad, J.; Lawler, S.; Ferreira, C.

2014-12-01

Areas along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries are extremely vulnerable to hurricane flooding, as evidenced by the costly effects and severe impacts of recent storms along the Virginia coast, such as Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Coastal wetlands, in addition to their ecological importance, are expected to mitigate the impact of storm surge by acting as a natural protection against hurricane flooding. Quantifying such interactions helps to provide a sound scientific basis to support planning and decision making. Using storm surge flooding from various historical hurricanes, simulated using a coupled hydrodynamic wave model (ADCIRC-SWAN), we propose an integrated framework yielding a geospatial identification of the capacity of Chesapeake Bay wetlands to protect critical infrastructure. Spatial identification of Chesapeake Bay wetlands is derived from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), National Land Cover Database (NLCD), and the Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP). Inventories of population and critical infrastructure are extracted from US Census block data and FEMA's HAZUS-Multi Hazard geodatabase. Geospatial and statistical analyses are carried out to develop a relationship between wetland land cover, hurricane flooding, population and infrastructure vulnerability. These analyses result in the identification and quantification of populations and infrastructure in flooded areas that lie within a reasonable buffer surrounding the identified wetlands. Our analysis thus produces a spatial perspective on the potential for wetlands to attenuate hurricane flood impacts in critical areas. Statistical analysis will support hypothesis testing to evaluate the benefits of wetlands from a flooding and storm-surge attenuation perspective. Results from geospatial analysis are used to identify where interactions with critical infrastructure are relevant in the Chesapeake Bay.

A framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure in mitigating urban flood hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schubert, Jochen E.; Burns, Matthew J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Sanders, Brett F.

2017-10-01

This research outlines a framework for the case-specific assessment of Green Infrastructure (GI) performance in mitigating flood hazard in small urban catchments. The urban hydrologic modeling tool (MUSIC) is coupled with a fine resolution 2D hydrodynamic model (BreZo) to test to what extent retrofitting an urban watershed with GI, rainwater tanks and infiltration trenches in particular, can propagate flood management benefits downstream and support intuitive flood hazard maps useful for communicating and planning with communities. The hydrologic and hydraulic models are calibrated based on current catchment conditions, then modified to represent alternative GI scenarios including a complete lack of GI versus a full implementation of GI. Flow in the hydrologic/hydraulic models is forced using a range of synthetic rainfall events with annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) between 1-63% and durations from 10 min to 24 h. Flood hazard benefits mapped by the framework include maximum flood depths and extents, flow intensity (m2/s), flood duration, and critical storm duration leading to maximum flood conditions. Application of the system to the Little Stringybark Creek (LSC) catchment shows that across the range of AEPs tested and for storm durations equal or less than 3 h, presently implemented GI reduces downstream flooded area on average by 29%, while a full implementation of GI would reduce downstream flooded area on average by 91%. A full implementation of GI could also lower maximum flow intensities by 83% on average, reducing the drowning hazard posed by urban streams and improving the potential for access by emergency responders. For storm durations longer than 3 h, a full implementation of GI lacks the capacity to retain the resulting rainfall depths and only reduces flooded area by 8% and flow intensity by 5.5%.

The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach

PubMed Central

Dall'Osso, F.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Moore, C.; Summerhayes, S.; Withycombe, G.

2014-01-01

Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney. PMID:25492514

The exposure of Sydney (Australia) to earthquake-generated tsunamis, storms and sea level rise: a probabilistic multi-hazard approach.

PubMed

Dall'Osso, F; Dominey-Howes, D; Moore, C; Summerhayes, S; Withycombe, G

2014-12-10

Approximately 85% of Australia's population live along the coastal fringe, an area with high exposure to extreme inundations such as tsunamis. However, to date, no Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessments (PTHA) that include inundation have been published for Australia. This limits the development of appropriate risk reduction measures by decision and policy makers. We describe our PTHA undertaken for the Sydney metropolitan area. Using the NOAA NCTR model MOST (Method for Splitting Tsunamis), we simulate 36 earthquake-generated tsunamis with annual probabilities of 1:100, 1:1,000 and 1:10,000, occurring under present and future predicted sea level conditions. For each tsunami scenario we generate a high-resolution inundation map of the maximum water level and flow velocity, and we calculate the exposure of buildings and critical infrastructure. Results indicate that exposure to earthquake-generated tsunamis is relatively low for present events, but increases significantly with higher sea level conditions. The probabilistic approach allowed us to undertake a comparison with an existing storm surge hazard assessment. Interestingly, the exposure to all the simulated tsunamis is significantly lower than that for the 1:100 storm surge scenarios, under the same initial sea level conditions. The results have significant implications for multi-risk and emergency management in Sydney.

Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Gustav.

Regionalization and Evaluation of Impacts of Climate Change on Mexican Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nava-Sanchez, E. H.; Murillo-Jimenez, J. M.; Godinez-Orta, L.; Morales-Perez, R. A.

2009-04-01

Mexican coasts exhibit a high variety of geoforms and processes, and consequently, are exposed to a variability of types and impact levels of geological hazards. Tropical cyclones are the most devastating hazards for the Mexican coast, although, impact levels are higher on the southern coast of both Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The second dangerous geo-hazards are earthquakes and tsunamis, which affect all Pacific coast, causing more damage the earthquakes generated in the Cocos Trench. For seismic hazards, there is a regionalization of the Mexican territory, however, even though the high levels of damages caused by other natural hazards, there is a lack of initiatives for performing atlas of natural hazards or coastal management plans. Exceptions are the local scale atlas of natural hazards by the Mexican Geological Survey or some other local scale atlas made with several errors by non experience private consultant companies. Our work shows results of analyses of coastal geological hazards associated to global warming such as the sea level rise, and the increase in strength of some coastal processes. Initially, due to the high diversity in coastal environments for the Mexican coast, it was considered that, a regional characterization of the coastal zone, and the gathering of environmental data for determining levels of impact of the various coastal hazards, as an evaluation of coastal vulnerability. Thus, the basic criteria for defining Coastal Regions, in order of importance, were the following: geomorphology, climate, geology, tectonics, and oceanography. Also, some anthropogenic factors were taken in account for the coastal regionalization, such as civil construction along the coastline, land used and modification of the fluvial system. The analysis of such criteria, allows us to classify the Mexican coasts in 10 Coastal Regions. On the Pacific coast regions are: (I) Pacific Coast of Baja California, (II) Gulf Coast of Baja California, (III) Coastal Plain of the Gulf de California, (IV) Pacific Southwest Coast, and (V) Chiapaneca Coastal Plain. On the Atlantic coast, regions are: (VI) Tamulipeca Coastal Plain, (VII) Veracruzana Volcanic Coast, (VIII) Tabasqueña Coastal Plain, (IX) Yucatan Platform, and (X) Caribean Coast. Secondly, the coastal hazards associated to a rising sea level and increasing strength of coastal processes due to climate change, were analyzed, and allowed us to determine, in order of importance, the following hazards: (a) marine flooding, by sea level rise per se and effect of storm surges; (b) beach erosion by waves, causing lose of beach width or the retreat of the whole beach system, and overwash of sand barriers; (c) fluvial flooding of coastal plains and deltaic areas; (d) salinization of estuaries and aquifers by saltwater intrusion. Finally, after overlying the characteristics of each Coastal Region and its exposition to the identified coastal hazards, we concluded that, Coastal Regions highly vulnerable to sea level rise are number V and VIII, since they show wide lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), and have high populated areas affected by heavy rain, tropical cyclones and storm surges; regions with moderate vulnerability are number VI, IX and X, which contain lowlands (up to 7 m above MSL), populated areas, exhibit watershed with low sediment production, and are located on the tropical cyclone tracks; regions with moderately low vulnerability are number III and VII, which contain relatively narrow lowlands, important lagoon and deltaic systems, several rivers are affected by anthropogenic activities, and are moderately affected by storms and tropical cyclones; regions with low vulnerability and short coastlines exposed to sea level rise hazards are regions number I and IV, which contain narrow lagoon and deltaic systems; and finally, region II is of a very low vulnerability, with narrow and scarce areas exposed to sea level rise hazards. This project was part of a Research Program on Climate Change Impacts, supported by the Mexican Institute for Water Technology and was carried out as a collaborative subprogram between that institute and the Interdisciplinary Center for Marine Sciences.

RiskScape: a new tool for comparing risk from natural hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stirling, M. W.; King, A.

2010-12-01

The Regional RiskScape is New Zealand’s joint venture between GNS Science & NIWA, and represents a comprehensive and easy-to-use tool for multi-hazard-based risk and impact analysis. It has basic GIS functionality, in that it has Import/Export functions to use with GIS software. Five natural hazards have been implemented in Riskscape to date: Flood (river), earthquake, volcano (ash), tsunami and wind storm. The software converts hazard exposure information into the likely impacts for a region, for example, damage and replacement costs, casualties, economic losses, disruption, and number of people affected. It therefore can be used to assist with risk management, land use planning, building codes and design, risk identification, prioritization of risk-reduction/mitigation, determination of “best use” risk-reduction investment, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness raising, public information, realistic scenarios for exercises, and hazard event response. Three geographically disparate pilot regions have been used to develop and triall Riskscape in New Zealand, and each region is exposed to a different mix of natural hazards. Future (phase II) development of Riskscape will include the following hazards: Landslides (both rainfall and earthquake triggered), storm surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars, and climate change effects. While Riskscape developments have thus far focussed on scenario-based risk, future developments will advance the software into providing probabilistic-based solutions.

Coastal hazards and groundwater salinization on low coral islands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, James P.; Chui, T. F. May

2016-04-01

Remote oceanic communities living on low-lying coral islands (atolls) without surface water rely for their survival on the continuing viability of fragile groundwater resources. These exist in the form of fresh groundwater lenses (FGLs) that develop naturally within the porous coral sand and gravel substrate. Coastal hazards such as inundation by high-energy waves driven by storms and continuing sea-level rise (SLR) are among many possible threats to viable FGL size and quality on atolls. Yet, not much is known about the combined effects of wave washover during powerful storms and SLR on different sizes of coral island, nor conversely how island size influences lens resilience against damage. This study investigates FGL damage by salinization (and resilience) caused by such coastal hazards using a modelling approach. Numerical modelling is carried out to generate steady-state FGL configurations at three chosen island sizes (400, 600 and 800 m widths). Steady-state solutions reveal how FGL dimensions are related in a non-linear manner to coral island size, such that smaller islands develop much more restricted lenses than larger islands. A 40 cm SLR scenario is then imposed. This is followed by transient simulations to examine storm-induced wave washover and subsequent FGL responses to saline damage over a 1 year period. Smaller FGLs display greater potential for disturbance by SLR, while larger and more robust FGLs tend to show more resilience. Further results produce a somewhat counterintuitive finding: in the post-SLR condition, FGL vulnerability to washover salinization may actually be reduced, owing to the thinner layer of unsaturated substrate lying above the water table into which saline water can infiltrate during a storm event. Nonetheless, combined washover and SLR impacts imply overall that advancing groundwater salinization may lead to some coral islands becoming uninhabitable long before they are completely submerged by sea-level rise, thereby calling into question the sustainability of atoll communities that face recurrent coastal hazards.

Early Adolescents' Perceptions of Relative Risk from 10 Societal and Environmental Hazards.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Riechard, Donald E.; McGarrity, Jean

1994-01-01

In this exploratory study, perceptions of relative risk held by 120 early adolescents (11-14 years) were examined for 10 hazards: wild animals, fire, nuclear energy, pollution, storms, war, car accidents, people, no food, and drugs. Dissonance was found between perceptions of risk and computed risk associated with factual data. (LZ)

Validating national landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for Caribbean island countries: the case of Dominica and tropical storm Erika.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Westen, Cees; Jetten, Victor; Alkema, Dinand

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to generate national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps for four Caribbean islands, as part of the World Bank project CHARIM (Caribbean Handbook on Disaster Geoinformation Management, www.charim.net). This paper focuses on the results for the island country of Dominica, located in the Eastern part of the Caribbean, in-between Guadalupe and Martinique. The available data turned out to be insufficient to generate reliable results. We therefore generated a new database of disaster events for Dominica using all available data, making use of many different sources. We compiled landslide inventories for five recent rainfall events from the maintenance records of the Ministry of Public Works, and generated a completely new landslide inventory using multi-temporal visual image interpretation, and generated an extensive landslide database for Dominica. We analyzed the triggering conditions for landslides as far as was possible given the available data, and generated rainfall magnitude-frequency relations. We applied a method for landslide susceptibility assessment which combined bi-variate statistical analysis, that provided indications on the importance of the possible contributing factors, with an expert-based iterative weighing approach using Spatial Multi-Criteria Evaluation. The method is transparent, as the stakeholders (e.g. the engineers and planners from the four countries) and other consultants can consult the criteria trees and evaluate the standardization and weights, and make adjustments. The landslide susceptibility map was converted into a landslide hazard map using landslide density and frequencies for so called major, moderate and minor triggering events. The landslide hazard map was produced in May 2015. A major rainfall event occurred on Dominica following the passage of tropical storm Erika on 26 to 28 August 2015. An event-based landslide inventory for this event was produced by UNOSAT using very high resolution optical images, and an additional field-based inventory was obtained from BRGM. These were used to analyze the predictive capabilities of the national-scale landslide susceptibility and hazard maps. Although the spatial patterns of the landslide susceptibility map was fairly accurate in predicting the locations of the landslides triggered by the recent tropical storm, the landslide densities and related frequencies used for the hazard assessment turned out to deviate considerably taking into account the spatial landslide pattern and estimated frequency of rainfall for tropical storm Erika. This study demonstrates the importance of reconstructing landslide inventories for a variety of triggering events, and the requirement of including landslide inventory data of a major event in the hazard assessment.

Using Bayesian Network as a tool for coastal storm flood impact prediction at Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya; Prodanov, Bogdan

2017-04-01

Coastal zone is among the fastest evolving areas worldwide. Ever increasing population inhabiting coastal settlements develops often conflicting economic and societal activities. The existing imbalance between the expansion of these activities, on one hand, and the potential to accommodate them in a sustainable manner, on the other, becomes a critical problem. Concurrently, coasts are affected by various hydro-meteorological phenomena such as storm surges, heavy seas, strong winds and flash floods, which intensities and occurrence frequency is likely to increase due to the climate change. This implies elaboration of tools capable of quick prediction of impact of those phenomena on the coast and providing solutions in terms of disaster risk reduction measures. One such tool is Bayesian network. Proposed paper describes the set-up of such network for Varna Bay (Bulgaria, Western Black Sea). It relates near-shore storm conditions to their onshore flood potential and ultimately to relevant impact as relative damage on coastal and manmade environment. Methodology for set-up and training of the Bayesian network was developed within RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). Proposed BN reflects the interaction between boundary conditions, receptors, hazard, and consequences. Storm boundary conditions - maximum significant wave height and peak surge level, were determined on the basis of their historical and projected occurrence. The only hazard considered in this study is flooding characterized by maximum inundation depth. BN was trained with synthetic events created by combining estimated boundary conditions. Flood impact was modeled with the process-based morphodynamical model XBeach. Restaurants, sport and leisure facilities, administrative buildings, and car parks were introduced in the network as receptors. Consequences (impact) are estimated in terms of relative damage caused by given inundation depth. National depth-damage (susceptibility) curves were used to define the percentage of damage ranked as low, moderate, high and very high. Besides previously described components, BN includes also two hazard influencing disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures: re-enforced embankment of Varna Port wall and beach nourishment. As a result of training process the network is able to evaluate spatially varying hazards and damages for specific storm conditions. Moreover, it is able to predict where on the site the highest impact would occur and to quantify the mitigation capacity of proposed DRR measures. For example, it is estimated that storm impact would be considerably reduced in present conditions but vulnerability would be still high in climate change perspective.

Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

2013-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Isaac. The report is divided into the following sections: Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Storm Overview, presents a synopsis of the storm, including meteorological evolution, wind speed impact area, wind-wave generation, and storm-surge extent and magnitudes. Section 3: Coastal-Change Observations, describes data-collection missions, including acquisition of oblique aerial photography and airborne lidar topographic surveys, in response to Hurricane Isaac. Section 4: Coastal-Change Analysis, describes data-analysis methods and observations of coastal change.

Mapping geoelectric fields during magnetic storms: Synthetic analysis of empirical United States impedances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedrosian, Paul A.; Love, Jeffrey J.

2015-12-01

Empirical impedance tensors obtained from EarthScope magnetotelluric data at sites distributed across the midwestern United States are used to examine the feasibility of mapping magnetic storm induction of geoelectric fields. With these tensors, in order to isolate the effects of Earth conductivity structure, we perform a synthetic analysis—calculating geoelectric field variations induced by a geomagnetic field that is geographically uniform but varying sinusoidally with a chosen set of oscillation frequencies that are characteristic of magnetic storm variations. For north-south oriented geomagnetic oscillations at a period of T0=100 s, induced geoelectric field vectors show substantial geographically distributed differences in amplitude (approximately a factor of 100), direction (up to 130∘), and phase (over a quarter wavelength). These differences are the result of three-dimensional Earth conductivity structure, and they highlight a shortcoming of one-dimensional conductivity models (and other synthetic models not derived from direct geophysical measurement) that are used in the evaluation of storm time geoelectric hazards for the electric power grid industry. A hypothetical extremely intense magnetic storm having 500 nT amplitude at T0=100 s would induce geoelectric fields with an average amplitude across the midwestern United States of about 2.71 V/km, but with a representative site-to-site range of 0.15 V/km to 16.77 V/km. Significant improvement in the evaluation of such hazards will require detailed knowledge of the Earth's interior three-dimensional conductivity structure.

Implications of Sea Level Rise on Coastal Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roeber, V.; Li, N.; Cheung, K.; Lane, P.; Evans, R. L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Ashton, A. D.

2012-12-01

Recent global and local projections suggest the sea level will be on the order of 1 m or higher than the current level by the end of the century. Coastal communities and ecosystems in low-lying areas are vulnerable to impacts resulting from hurricane or large swell events in combination with sea-level rise. This study presents the implementation and results of an integrated numerical modeling package to delineate coastal inundation due to storm landfalls at future sea levels. The modeling package utilizes a suite of numerical models to capture both large-scale phenomena in the open ocean and small-scale processes in coastal areas. It contains four components to simulate (1) meteorological conditions, (2) astronomical tides and surge, (3) wave generation, propagation, and nearshore transformation, and (4) surf-zone processes and inundation onto dry land associated with a storm event. Important aspects of this package are the two-way coupling of a spectral wave model and a storm surge model as well as a detailed representation of surf and swash zone dynamics by a higher-order Boussinesq-type wave model. The package was validated with field data from Hurricane Ivan of 2005 on the US Gulf coast and applied to tropical and extratropical storm scenarios respectively at Eglin, Florida and Camp Lejeune, North Carolina. The results show a nonlinear increase of storm surge level and nearshore wave energy with a rising sea level. The exacerbated flood hazard can have major consequences for coastal communities with respect to erosion and damage to infrastructure.

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-01-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100 and 1000 year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows to obtain storm surge level maps that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

2015-08-01

Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

Disaster declarations associated with bushfires, floods and storms in New South Wales, Australia between 2004 and 2014

PubMed Central

Sewell, T.; Stephens, R. E.; Dominey-Howes, D.; Bruce, E.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.

2016-01-01

Australia regularly experiences disasters triggered by natural hazards and New South Wales (NSW) the most populous State is no exception. To date, no publically available spatial and temporal analyses of disaster declarations triggered by hazards (specifically, bushfires, floods and storms) in NSW have been undertaken and no studies have explored the relationship between disaster occurrence and socio-economic disadvantage. We source, collate and analyse data about bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations between 2004 and 2014. Floods resulted in the most frequent type of disaster declaration. The greatest number of disaster declarations occurred in 2012–2013. Whilst no significant Spearman’s correlation exists between bushfire, flood and storm disaster declarations and the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, we observe that bushfire disaster declarations were much more common during El Niño, and flood disaster declarations were five times more common during La Niña phases. We identify a spatial cluster or ‘hot spot’ of disaster declarations in the northeast of the State that is also spatially coincident with 43% of the most socio-economically disadvantaged Local Government Areas in NSW. The results have implications for disaster risk management in the State. PMID:27819298

Assessment of the Pseudo Geostationary Lightning Mapper Products at the Spring Program and Summer Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Calhoun, Kristin K.; Terborg, Amanda M.

2014-01-01

Since 2010, the de facto Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) demonstration product has been the Pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) product suite. Originally prepared for the Hazardous Weather Testbed's Spring Program (specifically the Experimental Warning Program) when only four ground-based lightning mapping arrays were available, the effort now spans collaborations with several institutions and eight collaborative networks. For 2013, NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory have worked to collaborate with each network to obtain data in real-time. This has gone into producing the SPoRT variant of the PGLM that was demonstrated in AWIPS II for the 2013 Spring Program. Alongside the PGLM products, the SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool also was evaluated to assess not just another visualization of future GLM data but how to best extract more information while in the operational environment. Specifically, this tool addressed the leading request by forecasters during evaluations; provide a time series trend of total lightning in real-time. In addition to the Spring Program, SPoRT is providing the PGLM "mosaic" to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Storm Prediction Center. This is the same as what is used at the Hazardous Weather Testbed, but combines all available networks into one display for use at the national centers. This year, the mosaic was evaluated during the AWC's Summer Experiment. An important distinction between this and the Spring Program is that the Summer Experiment focuses on the national center perspective and not at the local forecast office level. Specifically, the Summer Experiment focuses on aviation needs and concerns and brings together operational forecaster, developers, and FAA representatives. This presentation will focus on the evaluation of SPoRT's pseudo-GLM products in these separate test beds. The emphasis will be on how future GLM observations can support operations at both the local and national scale and how the PGLM was used in combination with other lightning data sets. Evaluations for the PGLM were quite favorable with forecasters appreciating the high temporal resolution, the ability to look for rapid increases in lightning activity ahead of severe weather, as well as situational awareness for where convection is firing and for flight routing.

Quantifying Power Grid Risk from Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Homeier, N.; Wei, L. H.; Gannon, J. L.

2012-12-01

We are creating a statistical model of the geophysical environment that can be used to quantify the geomagnetic storm hazard to power grid infrastructure. Our model is developed using a database of surface electric fields for the continental United States during a set of historical geomagnetic storms. These electric fields are derived from the SUPERMAG compilation of worldwide magnetometer data and surface impedances from the United States Geological Survey. This electric field data can be combined with a power grid model to determine GICs per node and reactive MVARs at each minute during a storm. Using publicly available substation locations, we derive relative risk maps by location by combining magnetic latitude and ground conductivity. We also estimate the surface electric fields during the August 1972 geomagnetic storm that caused a telephone cable outage across the middle of the United States. This event produced the largest surface electric fields in the continental U.S. in at least the past 40 years.

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.

PubMed

Garner, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Kopp, Robert E; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B; Horton, Benjamin P; DeConto, Robert M; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Pollard, David

2017-11-07

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick; Maarten van Ormondt,; Erikson, Li H.; Jodi Eshleman,; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Peter Ruggiero,; Peter Adams,; Foxgrover, Amy C.

2014-01-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

PubMed Central

Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Alley, Richard B.; Horton, Benjamin P.; DeConto, Robert M.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Pollard, David

2017-01-01

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse. PMID:29078274

Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Andra J.; Mann, Michael E.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Kopp, Robert E.; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B.; Horton, Benjamin P.; DeConto, Robert M.; Donnelly, Jeffrey P.; Pollard, David

2017-11-01

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ˜500 y before 1800 to ˜25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ˜5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse.

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

Coping with volcanic hazards; a global perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tilling, R.I.

1990-01-01

Compared to some other natural hazards-such as floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides- volcanic hazards strike infrequently. However, in populated areas , even very small eruptions can wreak havoc and cause widespread devastation. For example, the 13 November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia ejected only about 3 percent of the volume of ash produced during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Yet, the mudflows triggered by this tiny eruption killed more than 25,000 people.

Study Of The Risks Arising From Natural Disasters And Hazards On Urban And Intercity Motorways By Using Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA) Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DELİCE, Yavuz

2015-04-01

Highways, Located in the city and intercity locations are generally prone to many kind of natural disaster risks. Natural hazards and disasters that may occur firstly from highway project making to construction and operation stages and later during the implementation of highway maintenance and repair stages have to be taken into consideration. And assessment of risks that may occur against adverse situations is very important in terms of project design, construction, operation maintenance and repair costs. Making hazard and natural disaster risk analysis is largely depending on the definition of the likelihood of the probable hazards on the highways. However, assets at risk , and the impacts of the events must be examined and to be rated in their own. With the realization of these activities, intended improvements against natural hazards and disasters will be made with the utilization of Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA) method and their effects will be analyzed with further works. FMEA, is a useful method to identify the failure mode and effects depending on the type of failure rate effects priorities and finding the most optimum economic and effective solution. Although relevant measures being taken for the identified risks by this analysis method , it may also provide some information for some public institutions about the nature of these risks when required. Thus, the necessary measures will have been taken in advance in the city and intercity highways. Many hazards and natural disasters are taken into account in risk assessments. The most important of these dangers can be listed as follows; • Natural disasters 1. Meteorological based natural disasters (floods, severe storms, tropical storms, winter storms, avalanches, etc.). 2. Geological based natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, subsidence, sinkholes, etc) • Human originated disasters 1. Transport accidents (traffic accidents), originating from the road surface defects (icing, signaling caused malfunctions and risks), fire or explosion etc.- In this study, with FMEA method, risk analysis of the urban and intercity motorways against natural disasters and hazards have been performed and found solutions were brought against these risks. Keywords: Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA), Pareto Analyses (PA), Highways, Risk Management.

Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

2014-01-01

A screening of the 104 nuclear powerplants in the United States licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (at 64 sites) indicates several sites for which paleoflood studies likely would provide additional flood-frequency information. Two sites—Duane Arnold, Iowa, on the Cedar River; and David-Besse, Ohio, on the Toussaint River—have geologic conditions suitable for creating and preserving stratigraphic records of flooding and few upstream dams that may complicate flood-frequency analysis. One site—Crystal River, Florida1, on the Withlacoochee River and only 4 kilometers from the coast—has high potential as a candidate for assessing riverine and marine inundation hazards. Several sites on the Mississippi River have high geologic potential, but upstream dams almost certainly now regulate peak flows. Nevertheless, studies on the Mississippi River to evaluate long-term flood frequency may provide results applicable to a wide spectrum of regional hazard issues. Several sites in the southeastern United States have high geologic potential, and studies at these sites also may be helpful in evaluating hazards from outburst floods from landslide dams (river blockages formed by mass movements), which may be a regional hazard. For all these sites, closer investigation and field reconnaissance would be needed to confirm suitable deposits and settings for a complete paleoflood analysis. Similar screenings may help identify high-potential sites for geologic investigations of tsunami and storm-surge hazards.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

Windstorms can cause significant financial damage and they rank among the most hazardous meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Risk associated with windstorms involves the combination of hazardous weather conditions, such as high wind gust speeds, and socio-economic factors, such as the distribution of assets as well as their susceptibilities to damage. A sophisticated risk assessment is important in a wide range of areas and has benefits for e.g. the insurance industry. However, a sophisticated risk assessment needs a large sample of storm events for which high-resolution, quantitative meteorological and/or loss data are available. Latter is typically an aggravating factor. For present-day windstorms in Switzerland, the data basis is generally sufficient to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated impacts. In contrast, historic windstorms are usually described by graphical depictions of the event and/or by weather and loss reports. The information on historic weather events is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. It has primarily been the field of activity of environmental historians to study historic weather extremes and their impacts. Furthermore, the scarce availability of atmospheric datasets reaching back sufficiently in time has so far limited the analysis of historic weather events. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) ensemble dataset, a global atmospheric reanalysis currently spanning 1871 to 2012, offers potentially a very valuable resource for the analysis of historic weather events. However, the 2°×2° latitude-longitude grid of the 20CR is too coarse to realistically represent the complex orography of Switzerland, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of smaller-scale features of the surface wind field influenced by the local orography. Using the 20CR as a starting point, this study illustrates a method to simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR) System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kronfeld, Kevin M. (Technical Monitor)

2003-01-01

An airborne weather radar system, the Enhanced Weather Radar (EWxR), with enhanced on-board weather radar data processing was developed and tested. The system features additional weather data that is uplinked from ground-based sources, specialized data processing, and limited automatic radar control to search for hazardous weather. National Weather Service (NWS) ground-based Next Generation Radar (NEXRAD) information is used by the EWxR system to augment the on-board weather radar information. The system will simultaneously display NEXRAD and on-board weather radar information in a split-view format. The on-board weather radar includes an automated or hands-free storm-finding feature that optimizes the radar returns by automatically adjusting the tilt and range settings for the current altitude above the terrain and searches for storm cells near the atmospheric 0-degree isotherm. A rule-based decision aid was developed to automatically characterize cells as hazardous, possibly-hazardous, or non-hazardous based upon attributes of that cell. Cell attributes are determined based on data from the on-board radar and from ground-based radars. A flight path impact prediction algorithm was developed to help pilots to avoid hazardous weather along their flight plan and their mission. During development the system was tested on the NASA B757 aircraft and final tests were conducted on the Rockwell Collins Sabreliner.

Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards and success stories in disaster prevention and mitigation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo

2016-04-01

The Philippines, being a locus of typhoons, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, is a hotbed of disasters. Natural hazards inflict loss of lives and costly damage to property in the country. In 2011, after tropical storm Washi devastated cities in southern Philippines, the Department of Science and Technology put in place a responsive program to warn and give communities hours-in-advance lead-time to prepare for imminent hazards and use advanced science and technology to enhance geohazard maps for more effective disaster prevention and mitigation. Since its launch, there have been many success stories on the use of Project NOAH, which after Typhoon Haiyan was integrated into the Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) system of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), the government agency tasked to prepare for, and respond to, natural calamities. Learning from past disasters, NDRRMC now issues warnings, through scientific advise from DOST-Project NOAH and PAGASA (Philippine Weather Bureau) that are hazards-specific, area-focused and time-bound. Severe weather events in 2015 generated dangerous hazard phenomena such as widespread floods and massive debris flows, which if not for timely, accessible and understandable warnings, could have turned into disasters. We call these events as "disasters that did not happen". The innovative warning system of the Philippine government has so far proven effective in addressing the impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and can be employed elsewhere in the world.

The 3D Elevation Program—Landslide recognition, hazard assessment, and mitigation support

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lukas, Vicki; Carswell, Jr., William J.

2017-01-27

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Landslide Hazards Program conducts landslide hazard assessments, pursues landslide investigations and forecasts, provides technical assistance to respond to landslide emergencies, and engages in outreach. All of these activities benefit from the availability of high-resolution, three-dimensional (3D) elevation information in the form of light detection and ranging (lidar) data and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (IfSAR) data. Research on landslide processes addresses critical questions of where and when landslides are likely to occur as well as their size, speed, and effects. This understanding informs the development of methods and tools for hazard assessment and situational awareness used to guide efforts to avoid or mitigate landslide impacts. Such research is essential for the USGS to provide improved information on landslide potential associated with severe storms, earthquakes, volcanic activity, coastal wave erosion, and wildfire burn areas.Decisionmakers in government and the private sector increasingly depend on information the USGS provides before, during, and following disasters so that communities can live, work, travel, and build safely. The USGS 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) provides the programmatic infrastructure to generate and supply lidar-derived superior terrain data to address landslide applications and a wide range of other urgent needs nationwide. By providing data to users, 3DEP reduces users’ costs and risks and allows them to concentrate on their mission objectives. 3DEP includes (1) data acquisition partnerships that leverage funding, (2) contracts with experienced private mapping firms, (3) technical expertise, lidar data standards, and specifications, and (4) most important, public access to high-quality 3D elevation data.

Radar research on thunderstorms and lightning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rust, W. D.; Doviak, R. J.

1982-01-01

Applications of Doppler radar to detection of storm hazards are reviewed. Normal radar sweeps reveal data on reflectivity fields of rain drops, ionized lightning paths, and irregularities in humidity and temperature. Doppler radar permits identification of the targets' speed toward or away from the transmitter through interpretation of the shifts in the microwave frequency. Wind velocity fields can be characterized in three dimensions by the use of two radar units, with a Nyquist limit on the highest wind speeds that may be recorded. Comparisons with models numerically derived from Doppler radar data show substantial agreement in storm formation predictions based on information gathered before the storm. Examples are provided of tornado observations with expanded Nyquist limits, gust fronts, turbulence, lightning and storm structures. Obtaining vertical velocities from reflectivity spectra is discussed.

Damage to offshore infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico by hurricanes Katrina and Rita

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz, A. M.; Krausmann, E.

2009-04-01

The damage inflicted by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to the Gulf-of-Mexico's (GoM) oil and gas production, both onshore and offshore, has shown the proneness of industry to Natech accidents (natural hazard-triggered hazardous-materials releases). In order to contribute towards a better understanding of Natech events, we assessed the damage to and hazardous-materials releases from offshore oil and natural-gas platforms and pipelines induced by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Data was obtained through a review of published literature and interviews with government officials and industry representatives from the affected region. We also reviewed over 60,000 records of reported hazardous-materials releases from the National Response Center's (NRC) database to identify and analyze the hazardous-materials releases directly attributed to offshore oil and gas platforms and pipelines affected by the two hurricanes. Our results show that hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed at least 113 platforms, and severely damaged at least 53 others. Sixty percent of the facilities destroyed were built 30 years ago or more prior to the adoption of the more stringent design standards that went into effect after 1977. The storms also destroyed 5 drilling rigs and severely damaged 19 mobile offshore drilling units (MODUs). Some 19 MODUs lost their moorings and became adrift during the storms which not only posed a danger to existing facilities but the dragging anchors also damaged pipelines and other infrastructure. Structural damage to platforms included toppling of sections, and tilting or leaning of platforms. Possible causes for failure of structural and non-structural components of platforms included loading caused by wave inundation of the deck. Failure of rigs attached to platforms was also observed resulting in significant damage to the platform or adjacent infrastructure, as well as damage to equipment, living quarters and helipads. The failures are attributable to tie-down components and occurred on both fixed and floating platforms. The total number of pipelines damaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita as of May 1, 2006, was 457. Pipeline damage was mostly caused by damage or failure of the host platform or its development and production piping, the impact of dragging and displaced objects, and pipeline interaction at a crossing. Damage to pipelines was a major contributing factor in delaying start up of offshore oil and gas production. During our analysis of the NRC database we identified 611 reported hazardous-materials releases directly attributed to offshore platforms and pipelines affected by the two hurricanes. There were twice as many releases during Hurricane Katrina than during Rita; 80% or more of the releases reported in the NRC database occurred from platforms. Our analysis suggests that the majority of releases were petroleum products, such as crude oil and condensate, followed by natural gas. In both Katrina and Rita, releases were more likely in the front, right quadrant of the storm. Storm-surge values were highest closer to the coastline. This may help explain the higher number of releases in shallow waters. The higher number of hazardous-materials releases from platforms during Katrina may partly be attributed to the higher wind speeds for this storm as it approached land.

Current research on aviation weather (bibliography), 1979

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turkel, B. S.; Frost, W.

1980-01-01

The titles, managers, supporting organizations, performing organizations, investigators and objectives of 127 current research projects in advanced meteorological instruments, forecasting, icing, lightning, visibility, low level wind shear, storm hazards/severe storms, and turbulence are tabulated and cross-referenced. A list of pertinent reference material produced through the above tabulated research activities is given. The acquired information is assembled in bibliography form to provide a readily available source of information in the area of aviation meteorology.

Projected 21st century coastal flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the third generation CoSMoS model

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Neill, Andrea; Erikson, Li; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Warrick, Jonathan; Foxgrover, Amy C.; Lovering, Jessica

2018-01-01

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented.

New NASA Satellite Zooms in on Tornado Swath

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

A number of severe thunder storms swept through the mid-Atlantic states on April 28, bringing high winds, hailstones, and heavy rains to many areas. The intense storms spawned at least two tornadoes, one of which was classified as an F4 twister. The powerful tornado touched down in southern Maryland and ripped through the town of La Plata, destroying most of the historic downtown. The twister-the strongest ever recorded to hit the state and perhaps the strongest ever recorded in the eastern U.S.-flattened everything in its path along a 24-mile (39 km) swath running west to east through the state. The tornado's path can be seen clearly in this band-sharpened color image acquired on May 1 by the Advanced Land Imager (ALI), flying aboard NASA's EO-1 satellite. La Plata is situated toward the lefthand side of this scene and the twister's swath is the bright stripe passing through the town and running eastward 6 miles (10 km) toward the Patuxent River beyond the righthand side of the image. This stripe is the result of the vegetation flattened by the storm. The flattened vegetation reflects more light than untouched vegetation. EO-1 is the first Earth observing satellite launched as part of NASA's New Millennium Program. This program is designed to spearhead development and testing of a new generation of satellite remote sensing technologies for future Earth and space science missions. The ALI is designed to improve upon and extend the measurement heritage begun by the Landsat series of satellites well into the 21st Century. For more images of the tornado's path, including Landsat, visit Tornado Hits La Plata, Maryland in the Natural Hazards section of the Earth Observatory. Image courtesy Lawrence Ong, EO-1 Mission Science Office, NASA GSFC

Natural disasters online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Wildfires, severe storms, floods, volcanic eruptions, and major air pollution events are types of major natural hazards that NASA will track on a new Web site unveiled on 16 January. The site, part of the agency's Earth Observatory, will track these hazards in near-real time with imagery acquired from NASA's Earth Science Enterprise and Earth Observing System satellite missions, along with related descriptive information.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system simulations will help to develop a seamless integration with the boundary systems in the service-gap area with new insights into our scientific understanding of such complex systems. A visualization system is being developed to allow stake holders and the community to have access to the flood forecasting for their region with sufficient lead time.

Lightning Tracking Tool for Assessment of Total Cloud Lightning within AWIPS II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burks, Jason E.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Sperow, Ken

2014-01-01

Total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) has been widely researched and shown to be a valuable tool to aid real-time warning forecasters in the assessment of severe weather potential of convective storms. The trend of total lightning has been related to the strength of a storm's updraft. Therefore a rapid increase in total lightning signifies the strengthening of the parent thunderstorm. The assessment of severe weather potential occurs in a time limited environment and therefore constrains the use of total lightning. A tool has been developed at NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center to assist in quickly analyzing the total lightning signature of multiple storms. The development of this tool comes as a direct result of forecaster feedback from numerous assessments requesting a real-time display of the time series of total lightning. This tool also takes advantage of the new architecture available within the AWIPS II environment. SPoRT's lightning tracking tool has been tested in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Program and significant changes have been made based on the feedback. In addition to the updates in response to the HWT assessment, the lightning tracking tool may also be extended to incorporate other requested displays, such as the intra-cloud to cloud-to-ground ratio as well as incorporate the lightning jump algorithm.

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self-motivated individuals who took on leadership roles in their communities or industrial sectors), customized and localized analyses, and workshops enhanced the use of hazard science. Examples from the two scenarios will be used to illustrate these points. We experienced several significant challenges in using science to enhance emergency management exercises and community decision making. Some of these challenges include 1) adapting scientific results to exercise format; 2) the special needs of recovery exercises, which can mimic response exercises only with limited success, because recovery is tactical while response is strategic; 3) staff turnover; and 4) limited resources. An important future direction will be to leverage our in-depth knowledge of scenarios, multi-disciplinary network, and stakeholder relations to integrate knowledge about multiple hazards to better inform risk-based decision making for all hazards.

Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, M. D.

2017-12-01

With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive operational solution to collect wind and water level measurements, and to conduct observation based modeling of wind and water impacts. My presentation will discuss some of the challenges to wind and water hazard monitoring and modeling.

Remote-sensing-based analysis of landscape change in the desiccated seabed of the Aral Sea--a potential tool for assessing the hazard degree of dust and salt storms.

PubMed

Löw, F; Navratil, P; Kotte, K; Schöler, H F; Bubenzer, O

2013-10-01

With the recession of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, once the world's fourth largest lake, a huge new saline desert emerged which is nowadays called the Aralkum. Saline soils in the Aralkum are a major source for dust and salt storms in the region. The aim of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal land cover change dynamics in the Aralkum and discuss potential implications for the recent and future dust and salt storm activity in the region. MODIS satellite time series were classified from 2000-2008 and change of land cover was quantified. The Aral Sea desiccation accelerated between 2004 and 2008. The area of sandy surfaces and salt soils, which bear the greatest dust and salt storm generation potential increased by more than 36 %. In parts of the Aralkum desalinization of soils was found to take place within 4-8 years. The implication of the ongoing regression of the Aral Sea is that the expansion of saline surfaces will continue. Knowing the spatio-temporal dynamics of both the location and the surface characteristics of the source areas for dust and salt storms allows drawing conclusions about the potential hazard degree of the dust load. The remote-sensing-based land cover assessment presented in this study could be coupled with existing knowledge on the location of source areas for an early estimation of trends in shifting dust composition. Opportunities, limits, and requirements of satellite-based land cover classification and change detection in the Aralkum are discussed.

Safeguarding Cultural Heritage against Climate Change and Natural Hazards through Stakeholder Involvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Wit, Rosmarie; Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Hollosi, Brigitta; Anders, Ivonne; Höfler, Angelika; Boi, Silvia; Resta, Vanni; Patrikakis, Charalampos

2017-04-01

Europe's cultural heritage is among the richest in the world, and draws millions of visitors to archeological sites, museums, monuments, castles, and other sites each year. The protection and conservation of European heritage is of utmost importance for our society, not only in order to preserve the European cultural identity, but also because cultural heritage is a wealth creator bringing tourism-related business opportunities on which many communities depend. However, Europe's heritage assets are extremely exposed to climate change and natural hazards, which threatens their integrity and may compromise their value. The goal of the STORM (Safeguarding Cultural Heritage through Technical and Organisational Management) project is to provide critical decision-making tools to European cultural heritage stakeholders affected by climate change and natural hazards. Here, the STORM project will be presented with a focus on climate change and natural hazard risk communication to the involved stakeholders. However, climate change communication is not a one-way process, and discussions with stakeholders are necessary to identify their specific needs. Hence, the STORM concept is tested through pilot site studies in five different countries: the Diocletian Baths in Rome, Italy; the Mellor Heritage site, Manchester, UK; the Roman Ruins of Tróia, Portugal; the Historical Centre of Rethymno on Crete, Greece and Ephesus, Izmir, Turkey. Furthermore, the past and future climatic conditions at the project's pilot sites are analysed in terms of mean state and extreme events (for example temperature and precipitation changes evident from observations and climate scenarios), which will be discussed with regard to their relevance for the local cultural heritage protection based on discussions with the stakeholders.

STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM): Determining the aggregated risk of multiple contaminant hazards in groundwater well catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Enzenhoefer, R.; Binning, P. J.; Nowak, W.

2015-09-01

Risk is often defined as the product of probability, vulnerability and value. Drinking water supply from groundwater abstraction is often at risk due to multiple hazardous land use activities in the well catchment. Each hazard might or might not introduce contaminants into the subsurface at any point in time, which then affects the pumped quality upon transport through the aquifer. In such situations, estimating the overall risk is not trivial, and three key questions emerge: (1) How to aggregate the impacts from different contaminants and spill locations to an overall, cumulative impact on the value at risk? (2) How to properly account for the stochastic nature of spill events when converting the aggregated impact to a risk estimate? (3) How will the overall risk and subsequent decision making depend on stakeholder objectives, where stakeholder objectives refer to the values at risk, risk attitudes and risk metrics that can vary between stakeholders. In this study, we provide a STakeholder-Objective Risk Model (STORM) for assessing the total aggregated risk. Or concept is a quantitative, probabilistic and modular framework for simulation-based risk estimation. It rests on the source-pathway-receptor concept, mass-discharge-based aggregation of stochastically occuring spill events, accounts for uncertainties in the involved flow and transport models through Monte Carlo simulation, and can address different stakeholder objectives. We illustrate the application of STORM in a numerical test case inspired by a German drinking water catchment. As one may expect, the results depend strongly on the chosen stakeholder objectives, but they are equally sensitive to different approaches for risk aggregation across different hazards, contaminant types, and over time.

Geoelectric Hazard Maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 Year Extreme Values and the 1989 Magnetic Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid-Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983-2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid-Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid-Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site-to-site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a "100 year" event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Strategy to evaluate persistent contaminant hazards resulting from sea-level rise and storm-derived disturbances—Study design and methodology for station prioritization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reilly, Timothy J.; Jones, Daniel K.; Focazio, Michael J.; Aquino, Kimberly C.; Carbo, Chelsea L.; Kaufhold, Erika E.; Zinecker, Elizabeth K.; Benzel, William M.; Fisher, Shawn C.; Griffin, Dale W.; Iwanowicz, Luke R.; Loftin, Keith A.; Schill, William B.

2015-10-26

Coastal communities are uniquely vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR) and severe storms such as hurricanes. These events enhance the dispersion and concentration of natural and anthropogenic chemicals and pathogenic microorganisms that could adversely affect the health and resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems in coming years. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a strategy to define baseline and post-event sediment-bound environmental health (EH) stressors (hereafter referred to as the Sediment-Bound Contaminant Resiliency and Response [SCoRR] strategy). A tiered, multimetric approach will be used to (1) identify and map contaminant sources and potential exposure pathways for human and ecological receptors, (2) define the baseline mixtures of EH stressors present in sediments and correlations of relevance, (3) document post-event changes in EH stressors present in sediments, and (4) establish and apply metrics to quantify changes in coastal resilience associated with sediment-bound contaminants. Integration of this information provides a means to improve assessment of the baseline status of a complex system and the significance of changes in contaminant hazards due to storm-induced (episodic) and SLR (incremental) disturbances. This report describes the purpose and design of the SCoRR strategy and the methods used to construct a decision support tool to identify candidate sampling stations vulnerable to contaminants that may be mobilized by coastal storms.

Geoelectric hazard maps for the Mid-Atlantic United States: 100 year extreme values and the 1989 magnetic storm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Lucas, Greg M.; Kelbert, Anna; Bedrosian, Paul A.

2018-01-01

Maps of extreme value geoelectric field amplitude are constructed for the Mid‐Atlantic United States, a region with high population density and critically important power grid infrastructure. Geoelectric field time series for the years 1983–2014 are estimated by convolving Earth surface impedances obtained from 61 magnetotelluric survey sites across the Mid‐Atlantic with historical 1 min (2 min Nyquist) measurements of geomagnetic variation obtained from a nearby observatory. Statistical models are fitted to the maximum geoelectric amplitudes occurring during magnetic storms, and extrapolations made to estimate threshold amplitudes only exceeded, on average, once per century. For the Mid‐Atlantic region, 100 year geoelectric exceedance amplitudes have a range of almost 3 orders of magnitude (from 0.04 V/km at a site in southern Pennsylvania to 24.29 V/km at a site in central Virginia), and they have significant geographic granularity, all of which is due to site‐to‐site differences in magnetotelluric impedance. Maps of these 100 year exceedance amplitudes resemble those of the estimated geoelectric amplitudes attained during the March 1989 magnetic storm, and, in that sense, the March 1989 storm resembles what might be loosely called a “100 year” event. The geoelectric hazard maps reported here stand in stark contrast with the 100 year geoelectric benchmarks developed for the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

Validating high-resolution California coastal flood modeling with Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, A.

2015-12-01

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) is a numerical modeling scheme used to predict coastal flooding due to sea level rise and storms influenced by climate change, currently in use in central California and in development for Southern California (Pt. Conception to the Mexican border). Using a framework of circulation, wave, analytical, and Bayesian models at different geographic scales, high-resolution results are translated as relevant hazards projections at the local scale that include flooding, wave heights, coastal erosion, shoreline change, and cliff failures. Ready access to accurate, high-resolution coastal flooding data is critical for further validation and refinement of CoSMoS and improved coastal hazard projections. High-resolution Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) provides an exceptional data source as appropriately-timed flights during extreme tides or storms provide a geographically-extensive method for determining areas of inundation and flooding extent along expanses of complex and varying coastline. Landward flood extents are numerically identified via edge-detection in imagery from single flights, and can also be ascertained via change detection using additional flights and imagery collected during average wave/tide conditions. The extracted flooding positions are compared against CoSMoS results for similar tide, water level, and storm-intensity conditions, allowing for robust testing and validation of CoSMoS and providing essential feedback for supporting regional and local model improvement.

Weather and environmental hazards at mass gatherings.

PubMed

Soomaroo, Lee; Murray, Virginia

2012-07-31

Introduction Reviews of mass gathering events have traditionally concentrated on crowd variables that affect the level and type of medical care needed. Weather and environmental hazards at mass gathering events have not been fully researched. This review examines these events and aims to provide future suggestions for event organisers, medical resource planners, and emergency services, including local hospital emergency departments. Methods A review was conducted using computerised data bases: MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, HMIC and EMBASE, with Google used to widen the search beyond peer-reviewed publications, to identify grey literature. All peer-review literature articles found containing information pertaining to lessons identified from mass gathering disasters due to weather or environmental hazards leading to participant death, injury or illness were analysed and reviewed. Disasters occurring due to crowd variables were not included. These articles were read, analysed, abstracted and summarised. Results 20 articles from literature search were found detailing mass gathering disasters relating directly to weather or environmental hazards from 1988 - 2011, with only 17 cases found within peer-review literature. Two events grey literature from 2011 are due to undergo further inquiry while one article reviews an event originally occurring in 1922. Analysis of cases were categorised in to heat and cold-related events, lightning and storms and disease outbreak. Conclusions Mass gathering events have an enormous potential to place a severe strain on the local health care system, Prior health resource and environmental planning for heat & cold-related illness, lightning & storms, and disease outbreak can advance emergency preparedness and response to potential disasters. Soomaroo L, Murray V. Weather and Environmental Hazards at Mass Gatherings. PLoS Currents Disasters. 2012 Jul 31 KEYWORDS: Mass Gatherings, Disasters, Sporting Events, Festivals, Concerts, Storm, Lightning, Cyclone, Hot-weather illness, Cold-weather illness, Disease, Public Health, Syndromic Surveillance Abbreviations: ALS - Advance Life support; BLS - Basic Life support; ED - Emergency Department; EMS - Emergency Medical Services; PPR - Patient Presentation Rate.

Weather and Environmental Hazards at Mass Gatherings

PubMed Central

Soomaroo, Lee; Murray, Virginia

2012-01-01

Introduction Reviews of mass gathering events have traditionally concentrated on crowd variables that affect the level and type of medical care needed. Weather and environmental hazards at mass gathering events have not been fully researched. This review examines these events and aims to provide future suggestions for event organisers, medical resource planners, and emergency services, including local hospital emergency departments. Methods A review was conducted using computerised data bases: MEDLINE, The Cochrane Library, HMIC and EMBASE, with Google used to widen the search beyond peer-reviewed publications, to identify grey literature. All peer-review literature articles found containing information pertaining to lessons identified from mass gathering disasters due to weather or environmental hazards leading to participant death, injury or illness were analysed and reviewed. Disasters occurring due to crowd variables were not included. These articles were read, analysed, abstracted and summarised. Results 20 articles from literature search were found detailing mass gathering disasters relating directly to weather or environmental hazards from 1988 – 2011, with only 17 cases found within peer-review literature. Two events grey literature from 2011 are due to undergo further inquiry while one article reviews an event originally occurring in 1922. Analysis of cases were categorised in to heat and cold-related events, lightning and storms and disease outbreak. Conclusions Mass gathering events have an enormous potential to place a severe strain on the local health care system, Prior health resource and environmental planning for heat & cold-related illness, lightning & storms, and disease outbreak can advance emergency preparedness and response to potential disasters. Citation: Soomaroo L, Murray V. Weather and Environmental Hazards at Mass Gatherings. PLoS Currents Disasters. 2012 Jul 31 Keywords: Mass Gatherings, Disasters, Sporting Events, Festivals, Concerts, Storm, Lightning, Cyclone, Hot-weather illness, Cold-weather illness, Disease, Public Health, Syndromic Surveillance Abbreviations: ALS – Advance Life support; BLS – Basic Life support; ED – Emergency Department; EMS – Emergency Medical Services; PPR – Patient Presentation Rate PMID:22953242

Toward a new paradigm for boulder dislodgement during storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weiss, Robert; Sheremet, Alex

2017-07-01

Boulders are an important coastal hazard event deposit because they can only be moved by tsunamis and energetic storms effects of storms. Storms and tsunami are competing processes for coastal change along many shorelines. Therefore, distinguishing the boulders that were moved during a storm from those moved by a tsunami is important. In this contribution, we present the results of a parameter study based on the TRIADS model for wave shoaling on mildly sloping beaches, coupled with a boulder-dislodgement model that is based on Newton's Second Law of Motion. The results show how smaller slopes expose the waves longer to the nonlinear processes, thus increasing the energy in the infragravity wave band. More energy in the infragravity wave band means that there are more energy wave lengths that can dislodge larger boulders. At the same time, a steeper slope lowers the threshold for boulder dislodgement (critical angle of dislodgement), making it more likely for larger boulders to be dislodged on a steeper slope. The competition between these two processes govern boulder dislodgement during storms and is investigated inhere.

Directional analysis and filtering for dust storm detection in NOAA-AVHRR imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janugani, S.; Jayaram, V.; Cabrera, S. D.; Rosiles, J. G.; Gill, T. E.; Rivera Rivera, N.

2009-05-01

In this paper, we propose spatio-spectral processing techniques for the detection of dust storms and automatically finding its transport direction in 5-band NOAA-AVHRR imagery. Previous methods that use simple band math analysis have produced promising results but have drawbacks in producing consistent results when low signal to noise ratio (SNR) images are used. Moreover, in seeking to automate the dust storm detection, the presence of clouds in the vicinity of the dust storm creates a challenge in being able to distinguish these two types of image texture. This paper not only addresses the detection of the dust storm in the imagery, it also attempts to find the transport direction and the location of the sources of the dust storm. We propose a spatio-spectral processing approach with two components: visualization and automation. Both approaches are based on digital image processing techniques including directional analysis and filtering. The visualization technique is intended to enhance the image in order to locate the dust sources. The automation technique is proposed to detect the transport direction of the dust storm. These techniques can be used in a system to provide timely warnings of dust storms or hazard assessments for transportation, aviation, environmental safety, and public health.

Coastal-storm Inundation and Sea-level Rise in New Zealand Scott A. Stephens and Rob Bell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, S. A.; Bell, R.

2016-12-01

Coastal-storm inundation is a growing problem in New Zealand. It happens occasionally, when the combined forces of weather and sea line up, causing inundation of low-elevation land, coastal erosion, and rivers and stormwater systems to back up causing inland flooding. This becomes a risk where we have placed buildings and infrastructure too close to the coast. Coastal-storm inundation is not a new problem, it has happened historically, but it is becoming more frequent as the sea level continues to rise. From analyses of historic extreme sea-level events, we show how the different sea-level components, such as tide and storm surge, contribute to extreme sea-level and how these components vary around New Zealand. Recent sea-level analyses reveal some large storm surges, bigger than previously reported, and we show the type of weather patterns that drive them, and how this leads to differences in storm surge potential between the east and west coasts. Although large and damaging storm-tides have occurred historically, we show that there is potential for considerably larger elevations to be reached in the "perfect storm", and we estimate the likelihood of such extreme events occurring. Sea-level rise (SLR) will greatly increase the frequency, depth and consequences of coastal-storm inundation in the future. We show an application of a new method to determine the increasing frequency of extreme sea-levels with SLR, one which integrates the extreme tail with regularly-occurring high tides. We present spatial maps of several extreme sea-level threshold exceedance statistics for a case study at Mission Bay, Auckland, New Zealand. The maps show how the local community is likely to face decision points at various SLR thresholds, and we conclude that coastal hazard assessments should ideally use several SLR scenarios and time windows within the next 100 years or more to support the decision-making process for future coastal adaptation and when response options will be needed. In tandem, coastal hazard assessments should also provide information on SLR values linked to expected inundation frequency or depth. This can be linked to plausible timeframes for SLR thresholds to determine when critical decision points for adaptation might be reached, and we show how this might be achieved.

Risks to offshore installations in Europe due to natural hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Necci, Amos; Krausmann, Elisabeth

2017-04-01

Natural hazards, such as storms, earthquakes, or lightning are a major threat to industry. In particular, chemical plants, storage facilities, pipelines, and offshore oil and gas facilities are vulnerable to natural events which can cause hazardous materials releases and thereby endanger workers, the population and the environment. These technological accidents are commonly referred to as Natech accidents. Recent events have increased concerns about safety in the offshore oil and gas sector, and the need for improving knowledge on the matter has become evident. With those premises, we analyzed accidents, near misses and accident precursors at offshore facilities in Europe caused by natural events using both a statistical and a qualitative approach. For this purpose, we screened the World Offshore Accident Database (WOAD) to identify all incidents that featured natural events as causes or aggravating factors. A dataset of 1,085 global Natech events was built for the statistical analysis. Among those, a subset composed of 303 European records was selected. The results of the analysis showed that offshore Natech events in Europe are frequent; they resulted, however, in low consequences. The main threat to offshore facilities resulted from bad weather, such as strong winds and heavy seas. Storms can put intense loads on the structural parts of offshore installations, eventually exceeding design resistance specifications. Several incidents triggered by lightning strikes and earthquakes were also recorded. Substantial differences in terms of vulnerability, damage modality and consequences emerged between fixed and floating offshore structures. The main damage mode for floating structures was the failure of station keeping systems due to the rupture of mooring or anchors, mainly caused by adverse meteorological conditions. Most of the incidents at fixed offshore structures in Europe involved falling loads for both metal jacket and concrete base platforms due to storms. In contrast, in other parts of the world, and in particular in the Gulf of Mexico, tropical storms are likely to trigger severe direct damage to structures, resulting in platform capsizing, sinking or grounding. The in-depth analysis of the incident records also showed that the natural event was often just the triggering cause of the accident, which was frequently accompanied by contributing factors (e.g. corrosion, fatigue, wrong procedures, etc.). Under these circumstances, not only extreme storms, but also storms with moderate intensity can trigger incidents. Due to the high density of offshore structures and the unique environmental conditions promoting fatigue and corrosion, the North Sea is the area with the highest number of incidents recorded in Europe, as well as the area with the highest number of incidents at semi-submersible units in the world. About 4% of all reported global Natech events at offshore infrastructures involved casualties, and 2.6% for the European incident subset. Hazardous materials releases were documented for 21 events in Europe, resulting in fires and hydrocarbon spills polluting the sea. Furthermore, a surprisingly high number of severe events occurred during towing which highlights the impact of natural hazards on the safety of offshore transfer operations.

Current & future vulnerability of sarasota county Florida to hurricane storm surge & sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.

2008-01-01

Coastal communities in portions of the United States are vulnerable to storm-surge inundation from hurricanes and this vulnerability will likely increase, given predicted rises in sea level from climate change and growing coastal development. In this paper, we provide an overview of research to determine current and future societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge inundation and to help public officials and planners integrate these scenarios into their long-range land use plans. Our case study is Sarasota County, Florida, where planners face the challenge of balancing increasing population growth and development with the desire to lower vulnerability to storm surge. Initial results indicate that a large proportion of Sarasota County's residential and employee populations are in areas prone to storm-surge inundation from a Category 5 hurricane. This hazard zone increases when accounting for potential sea-level-rise scenarios, thereby putting additional populations at risk. Subsequent project phases involve the development of future land use and vulnerability scenarios in collaboration with local officials. Copyright ASCE 2008.

40 CFR 123.35 - As the NPDES Permitting Authority for regulated small MS4s, what is my role?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... MS4 storm water program.) (b) You must develop a process, as well as criteria, to designate small MS4s... under the NPDES storm water discharge control program. This process must include the authority to... storm water discharge results in or has the potential to result in exceedances of water quality...

40 CFR 123.35 - As the NPDES Permitting Authority for regulated small MS4s, what is my role?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... MS4 storm water program.) (b) You must develop a process, as well as criteria, to designate small MS4s... under the NPDES storm water discharge control program. This process must include the authority to... storm water discharge results in or has the potential to result in exceedances of water quality...

40 CFR 123.35 - As the NPDES Permitting Authority for regulated small MS4s, what is my role?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... MS4 storm water program.) (b) You must develop a process, as well as criteria, to designate small MS4s... under the NPDES storm water discharge control program. This process must include the authority to... storm water discharge results in or has the potential to result in exceedances of water quality...

Sustaining Military Operations in the Arctic -- The U.S. Cannot do it Alone

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-04

for cruise ship captains to allow their passengers better views of polar bears and icebergs , for shipping companies to move their cargo on ever...as_arctic_sea_ice_retreats_storms_take_toll_on_the_land/2412/. 8 region which regularly sees icebergs and ice flows, this can be an acute hazard. 23 Amplifying the challenge to...we discussed, high winds caused by storms can blow icebergs and thick flows of sea ice into these zones. Even in the summer months, drifting ice

The New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe (MATRIX) Project - An overview of its major findings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Kevin; Zschau, Jochen; Gasparini, Paolo

2014-05-01

Recent major natural disasters, such as the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake, tsunami and subsequent Fukushima nuclear accident, have raised awareness of the frequent and potentially far-reaching interconnections between natural hazards. Such interactions occur at the hazard level, where an initial hazard may trigger other events (e.g., an earthquake triggering a tsunami) or several events may occur concurrently (or nearly so), e.g., severe weather around the same time as an earthquake. Interactions also occur at the vulnerability level, where the initial event may make the affected community more susceptible to the negative consequences of another event (e.g., an earthquake weakens buildings, which are then damaged further by windstorms). There is also a temporal element involved, where changes in exposure may alter the total risk to a given area. In short, there is the likelihood that the total risk estimated when considering multiple hazard and risks and their interactions is greater than the sum of their individual parts. It is with these issues in mind that the European Commission, under their FP7 program, supported the New Multi-HAzard and MulTi-RIsK Assessment MethodS for Europe or MATRIX project (10.2010 to 12.2013). MATRIX set out to tackle multiple natural hazards (i.e., those of concern to Europe, namely earthquakes, landslides, volcanos, tsunamis, wild fires, storms and fluvial and coastal flooding) and risks within a common theoretical framework. The MATRIX work plan proceeded from an assessment of single-type risk methodologies (including how uncertainties should be treated), cascade effects within a multi-hazard environment, time-dependent vulnerability, decision making and support for multi-hazard mitigation and adaption, and an assessment of how the multi-hazard and risk viewpoint may be integrated into current decision making and risk mitigation programs, considering the existing single-hazard and risk focus. Three test sites were considered during the project: Naples, Cologne, and the French West Indies. In addition, a software platform, the MATRIX-Common IT sYstem (MATRIX-CITY), was developed to allow the evaluation of characteristic multi-hazard and risk scenarios in comparison to single-type analyses. This presentation therefore outlines the more significant outcomes of the project, in particular those dealing with the harmonization of single-type hazards, cascade event analysis, time-dependent vulnerability changes and the response of the disaster management community to the MATRIX point of view.

Modeling of Natural Coastal Hazards in Puerto Rico in Support of Emergency Management and Coastal Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercado, A., Jr.

2015-12-01

The island of Puerto Rico is not only located in the so-called Caribbean hurricane alley, but is also located in a tsunami prone region. And both phenomena have affected the island. For the past few years we have undergone the task of upgrading the available coastal flood maps due to storm surges and tsunamis. This has been done taking advantage of new Lidar-derived, high resolution, topography and bathymetry and state-of-the-art models (MOST for tsunamis and ADCIRC/SWAN for storm surges). The tsunami inundation maps have been converted to evacuation maps. In tsunamis we are also working in preparing hazard maps due to tsunami currents inside ports, bays, and marinas. The storm surge maps include two scenarios of sea level rise: 0.5 and 1.0 m above Mean High Water. All maps have been adopted by the Puerto Rico State Emergency Management Agency, and are publicly available through the Internet. It is the purpose of this presentation to summarize how it has been done, the spin-off applications they have generated, and how we plan to improve coastal flooding predictions.

Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup,swash, and runup. Coastal engineering, 53(7), 573-588.

A Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment of Coastal Landmarks along Cape Hatteras National Seashore

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flynn, M. J.

2015-12-01

Cape Hatteras National Seashore is located along the Outer Banks, a narrow string of barrier islands in eastern North Carolina. The seashore was established to preserve cultural and natural resources of national significance, yet these islands have shoreline rates of change that are predominately erosional, frequently experience storm surge inundation driven by tropical and extra-tropical storm events, and are highly vulnerable to sea level rise. The National Park Service staff are concerned about the vulnerability of historic structures located within the park, and recognized the utility of a coastal hazard risk assessment to assist park managers with long-term planning. They formed a cooperative agreement with researchers at East Carolina University to conduct the assessment, which primarily used GIS to evaluate the susceptibility of 27 historical structures to coastal erosion, storm surge, and sea-level rise. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System was used to calculate a linear regression rate of shoreline movement based on historical shorelines. Those rates were used to simulate the future position of the shoreline along transects. The SLOSH model output was down scaled to a DEM generated from the 2014 NC QL2 LiDAR collection to determine the extent and depth of inundation that would occur from storm events. Sea level rise was modeled for various scenarios referenced to existing MHHW, and also added to each SLOSH model output to determine the effect of a storm event under those sea level rise scenarios. Risk maps were developed to include not only areal coverage for existing structures and districts, but also identify potential areas of relocation or retreat in the long-term. In addition to evaluating vulnerability, timelines for potential impacts provided scenarios for National Park Service staff to research adaption and mitigation strategies.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Vickery, P., D. Wadhera, A. Cox, V. Cardone , J. Hanson, and B. Blanton. 2012. Coastal storm surge analysis: Storm forcing (Intermediate Submission No...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey L. Hanson, Michael F. Forte, Brian Blanton

Teleplaneta: a 7 year-long effort to spread natural hazard's knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvo, David; Álvarez, Domingo; Marrero, Nieves; Pérez, Nemesio M.

2016-04-01

One of the main and toughest goals for a geoscientist is to have a properly communication with the society when the time comes for showing results, scientific advances or whatever kind of remarkable event. The complexity of the scientific terminology, and the existence of a few communication channels, often prevents lay people to know about how the advance of science is occurring or how new discoveries are helping us to have a better understanding about the Planet Earth. In that respect, mass media provide the most powerful tool to enhance this communication, both radio and TV broadcasting, since the wealth of Earth-sciences' related information available on issues like global climate, water, energy and natural hazards remain largely unknown to the public and often untapped by policy and decision makers. Almost 75% of the Earth population lives in areas that had been hit, at least once in the last 20 years, by earthquakes, severe storms, flooding or droughts. TELEPLANETA is a joint effort of the Spanish National Public Television in the Canary Islands (RTVE-Canarias) and the Instituto Volcanológico de Canarias (INVOLCAN) for raising public awareness of the impact of these natural hazards in the society, with an understandable language away from too much technical terms but basically avoiding the gruesome side of this kind of events. TELEPLANETA tries to give a scientific explanation of why these hazards occur, focusing on the visual communication with the viewers. This weekly TV program is broadcasted through the worldwide coverage news channel - 24 Hours Channel - of the Spanish National Public TV (TVE). Actually immersed on our 7th season, TELEPLANETA has gone through a challenging improvement, from a barely 4 minute outsider program to a 20 minutes long, full enhanced TV show. We actually provide accurate information about natural hazards, but also a weekly review of twitteŕs best pictures and comments regarding nature, as well as scientific report at the most impressive natural scenarios and technology and research institutions. TELEPLANETA has collected several awards and public acknowledgments along these seven years. The TV program is available at its own website in the RTVE matrix web (http://www.rtve.es/alacarta/videos/teleplaneta/).

STORM AND COMBINED SEWER OVERFLOW: AN OVERVIEW OF EPA'S RESEARCH PROGRAM (EPA/600/8-89/054)

EPA Science Inventory

This report represents an overview of the EPA's Storm & Combined Sewer Pollution Control Research Program performed over a 20-year period beginning with the mid-1960s. It covers program involvements in the development of a diverse technology including pollution-problem assessment...

Emergency Assessment of Postfire Debris-Flow Hazards for the 2009 Station Fire, San Gabriel Mountains, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.; Staley, Dennis M.; Worstell, Bruce B.

2009-01-01

This report presents an emergency assessment of potential debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2009 Station fire in Los Angeles County, southern California. Statistical-empirical models developed for postfire debris flows are used to estimate the probability and volume of debris-flow production from 678 drainage basins within the burned area and to generate maps of areas that may be inundated along the San Gabriel mountain front by the estimated volume of material. Debris-flow probabilities and volumes are estimated as combined functions of different measures of basin burned extent, gradient, and material properties in response to both a 3-hour-duration, 1-year-recurrence thunderstorm and to a 12-hour-duration, 2-year recurrence storm. Debris-flow inundation areas are mapped for scenarios where all sediment-retention basins are empty and where the basins are all completely full. This assessment provides critical information for issuing warnings, locating and designing mitigation measures, and planning evacuation timing and routes within the first two winters following the fire. Tributary basins that drain into Pacoima Canyon, Big Tujunga Canyon, Arroyo Seco, West Fork of the San Gabriel River, and Devils Canyon were identified as having probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 80 percent, the potential to produce debris flows with volumes greater than 100,000 m3, and the highest Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Ranking in response to both storms. The predicted high probability and large magnitude of the response to such short-recurrence storms indicates the potential for significant debris-flow impacts to any buildings, roads, bridges, culverts, and reservoirs located both within these drainages and downstream from the burned area. These areas will require appropriate debris-flow mitigation and warning efforts. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence greater than 80 percent, debris-flow volumes between 10,000 and 100,000 m3, and high Combined Relative Debris-Flow Hazard Rankings were estimated in response to both short recurrence-interval (1- and 2-year) storms for all but the smallest basins along the San Gabriel mountain front between Big Tujunga Canyon and Arroyo Seco. The combination of high probabilities and large magnitudes determined for these basins indicates significant debris-flow hazards for neighborhoods along the mountain front. When the capacity of sediment-retention basins is exceeded, debris flows may be deposited in neighborhoods and streets and impact infrastructure between the mountain front and Foothill Boulevard. In addition, debris flows may be deposited in neighborhoods immediately below unprotected basins. Hazards to neighborhoods and structures at risk from these events will require appropriate debris-flow mitigation and warning efforts.

Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

Severe Storms Branch research report (April 1984 April 1985)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubach, L. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Research Program is a program of integrated studies which are to achieve an improved understanding of the basic behavior of the atmosphere through the use of remotely sensed data and space technology. The program consist of four elements: (1) special observations and analysis of mesoscale systems; (20 the development of quanitative algorithms to use remotely sensed observations; (3) the development of new observing systems; and (4) numerical modeling. The Severe Storms Branch objectives are the improvement of the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of a wide range of atmospheric storms, which includes severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and winter snowstorms. The research often shed light upon various aspects of local weather, such as fog, sea breezes, air pollution, showers, and other products of nonsevere cumulus cloud clusters. The part of the program devoted to boundary layer processes, gust front interactions, and soil moisture detection from satellites gives insights into storm growth and behavior.

Policy tenure under the U.S. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

PubMed

Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Lemoyne de Forges, Sabine; Kunreuther, Howard

2012-04-01

In the United States, insurance against flood hazard (inland flooding or storm surge from hurricanes) has been provided mainly through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) since 1968. The NFIP covers $1.23 trillion of assets today. This article provides the first analysis of flood insurance tenure ever undertaken: that is, the number of years that people keep their flood insurance policy before letting it lapse. Our analysis of the entire portfolio of the NFIP over the period 2001-2009 reveals that the median tenure of new policies during that time is between two and four years; it is also relatively stable over time and levels of flood hazard. Prior flood experience can affect tenure: people who have experienced small flood claims tend to hold onto their insurance longer; people who have experienced large flood claims tend to let their insurance lapse sooner. To overcome the policy and governance challenges posed by homeowners' inadequate insurance coverage, we discuss policy recommendations that include for banks and government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) strengthening their requirements and the introduction of multiyear flood insurance contracts attached to the property, both of which are likely to provide more coverage stability and encourage investments in risk-reduction measures. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

The Mauna Kea Weather Center: Custom Atmospheric Forecasting Support for Mauna Kea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Businger, Steven

2011-03-01

The success of operations at Mauna Kea Observatories is strongly influenced by weather conditions. The Mauna Kea Weather Center, an interdisciplinary research program, was established in 1999 to develop and provide custom weather support for Mauna Kea Observatories. The operational forecasting goals of the program are to facilitate the best possible use of favorable atmospheric conditions for scientific benefit and to ensure operational safety. During persistent clear periods, astronomical observing quality varies substantially due to changes in the vertical profiles of temperature, wind, moisture, and turbulence. Cloud and storm systems occasionally cause adverse or even hazardous conditions. A dedicated, daily, real-time mesoscale numerical modeling effort provides crucial forecast guidance in both cases. Several key atmospheric variables are forecast with sufficient skill to be of operational and scientific benefit to the telescopes on Mauna Kea. Summit temperature forecasts allow mirrors to be set to the ambient temperature to reduce image distortion. Precipitable water forecasts allow infrared observations to be prioritized according to atmospheric opacity. Forecasts of adverse and hazardous conditions protect the safety of personnel and allow for scheduling of maintenance when observing is impaired by cloud. The research component of the project continues to improve the accuracy and content of the forecasts. In particular, case studies have resulted in operational forecasts of astronomical observing quality, or seeing.

Creating a Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) for science and conservation applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Poppenga, Sandra K.; Gesch, Dean B.; Palaseanu-Lovejoy, Monica; Barras, John; Evans, Gayla A.; Gibbs, Ann

2016-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey is creating the Coastal National Elevation Database, an expanding set of topobathymetric elevation models that extend seamlessly across coastal regions of high societal or ecological significance in the United States that are undergoing rapid change or are threatened by inundation hazards. Topobathymetric elevation models are raster datasets useful for inundation prediction and other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment-transport and storm surge models. These topobathymetric elevation models are being constructed by the broad regional assimilation of numerous topographic and bathymetric datasets, and are intended to fulfill the pressing needs of decision makers establishing policies for hazard mitigation and emergency preparedness, coastal managers tasked with coastal planning compatible with predictions of inundation due to sea-level rise, and scientists investigating processes of coastal geomorphic change. A key priority of this coastal elevation mapping effort is to foster collaborative lidar acquisitions that meet the standards of the USGS National Geospatial Program's 3D Elevation Program, a nationwide initiative to systematically collect high-quality elevation data. The focus regions are located in highly dynamic environments, for example in areas subject to shoreline change, rapid wetland loss, hurricane impacts such as overwash and wave scouring, and/or human-induced changes to coastal topography.

Mapping of hazard from rainfall-triggered landslides in developing countries: Examples from Honduras and Micronesia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harp, E.L.; Reid, M.E.; McKenna, J.P.; Michael, J.A.

2009-01-01

Loss of life and property caused by landslides triggered by extreme rainfall events demonstrates the need for landslide-hazard assessment in developing countries where recovery from such events often exceeds the country's resources. Mapping landslide hazards in developing countries where the need for landslide-hazard mitigation is great but the resources are few is a challenging, but not intractable problem. The minimum requirements for constructing a physically based landslide-hazard map from a landslide-triggering storm, using the simple methods we discuss, are: (1) an accurate mapped landslide inventory, (2) a slope map derived from a digital elevation model (DEM) or topographic map, and (3) material strength properties of the slopes involved. Provided that the landslide distribution from a triggering event can be documented and mapped, it is often possible to glean enough topographic and geologic information from existing databases to produce a reliable map that depicts landslide hazards from an extreme event. Most areas of the world have enough topographic information to provide digital elevation models from which to construct slope maps. In the likely event that engineering properties of slope materials are not available, reasonable estimates can be made with detailed field examination by engineering geologists or geotechnical engineers. Resulting landslide hazard maps can be used as tools to guide relocation and redevelopment, or, more likely, temporary relocation efforts during severe storm events such as hurricanes/typhoons to minimize loss of life and property. We illustrate these methods in two case studies of lethal landslides in developing countries: Tegucigalpa, Honduras (during Hurricane Mitch in 1998) and the Chuuk Islands, Micronesia (during Typhoon Chata'an in 2002).

Cooperation on Climate Services in the Binational Rio Grande/Bravo Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.; Shafer, M. A.; Brown, D. P.

2013-12-01

The Rio Grande/Bravo River Basin (RGB) of the United States and México is exposed to tornadoes, severe storms, hurricanes, winter storms, wildfire, and drought. The combination of these weather and climate-related hazards has resulted in impacts, such as wildfire, crop loss, water supply reduction, and flooding, with exceedingly high economic costs ($13 billion in 2011). In order to contribute to increased binational information flow and knowledge exchange in the region, we have developed a prototype quarterly bilingual RGB Climate Outlook, in PDF, supplemented by Twitter messages and Facebook posts. The goal of the project is to improve coordination between institutions in the U.S. and Mexico, increase awareness about climate variations, their impacts and costs to society, and build capacity for enhanced hazard preparedness. The RGB Outlook features a synthesis of climate products, impact data and analysis, is expressed in user-friendly language, and relies substantially on visual communication in contrast to text. The RGB Outlook is co-produced with colleagues in the U.S. and Mexico, in conjunction with the North American Climate Services Partnership (NACSP) and NOAA's regional climate services program. NACSP is a tri-national initiative to develop and deliver drought-based climate services in order to assist water resource managers, agricultural interests, and other constituents as they prepare for future drought events and build capacity to respond to other climate extremes. The RGB Climate Outlook builds on lessons learned from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Southwest Climate Outlook (PDF, html), La Niña Drought Tracker (PDF, html), the Southern Climate Impacts Policy Program (SCIPP) Managing Drought in the Southern Plains webinar series, the Border Climate Summary (PDF), and Transborder Climate newsletter (PDF) and webinar series. The latter two have been the only regularly occurring bilingual climate information products in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Prior research shows that these products: contribute to increased understanding of climate phenomena, information, and forecasts, are shared with partners in social networks, and inform decisions. The project team has initiated a pre-dissemination product survey, in order to probe the primary audience of resource managers, hazard planners, and agricultural water users about their needs for information, format, and communication preferences. We will report on the survey results, as well as challenges in binational communication and cooperation.

Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.

1992-02-01

A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2017 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

ScienceCast 121: The Effects of Space Weather on Aviation

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-10-25

Ordinary air travelers can be exposed to significant doses of radiation during solar storms. A new computer model developed by NASA aims to help protect the public by predicting space weather hazards to aviation.

Summary of Natural Hazard Statistics for 2015 in the United States

MedlinePlus

... Damage Costs Weather Event Convection Lightning Tornado Thunderstorm Wind Hail Extreme Temperatures Cold Heat Flood Flash Flood ... Drought Dust Storm Dust Devil Rain Fog High Wind Waterspout Fire Weather Mud Slide Volcanic Ash Miscellaneous ...

40 CFR 122.31 - As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program? 122.31 Section 122.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM Permit Application and Specia...

40 CFR 122.31 - As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false As a Tribe, what is my role under the NPDES storm water program? 122.31 Section 122.31 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM Permit Application and Specia...

KSC-2012-2666

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians lower NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B, wrapped in a protective shroud, onto a test stand. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2668

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians remove the protective shroud from around NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2650

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-02

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians lift the shipping container from around NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe A, wrapped in a protective shroud. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2664

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians lift NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B, wrapped in a protective shroud, from the bottom of its shipping container. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2663

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians prepare to lift NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B, wrapped in a protective shroud, from the bottom of its shipping container. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2652

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-02

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians lift NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe A, wrapped in a protective shroud, onto a test stand. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2662

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians prepare NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B, wrapped in a protective shroud, to be lifted from the bottom of its shipping container. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2653

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-02

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians secure NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe A, wrapped in a protective shroud, on a test stand. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2667

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-03

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians position NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe B, wrapped in a protective shroud, on a test stand. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

KSC-2012-2651

NASA Image and Video Library

2012-05-02

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. – In the clean room high bay at the Astrotech payload processing facility near NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, Applied Physics Laboratory technicians prepare to lift NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe A, wrapped in a protective shroud, from the bottom of its shipping container. Prelaunch preparations and spacecraft testing will follow. The Radiation Belt Storm Probes, or RBSP, mission will help us understand the sun’s influence on Earth and near-Earth space by studying the Earth’s radiation belts on various scales of space and time. RBSP instruments will provide the measurements needed to characterize and quantify the plasma processes that produce very energetic ions and relativistic electrons. The mission is part of NASA’s broader Living With a Star Program that was conceived to explore fundamental processes that operate throughout the solar system, particularly those that generate hazardous space weather effects in the vicinity of Earth and phenomena that could impact solar system exploration. RBSP will begin its mission of exploration of Earth's Van Allen radiation belts and the extremes of space weather after launch. Launch aboard a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket is scheduled for August 23. For more information, visit http://www.nasa.gov/rbsp. Photo credit: NASA/Jim Grossmann

Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-- A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buxton, Herbert T.; Andersen, Matthew E.; Focazio, Michael J.; Haines, John W.; Hainly, Robert A.; Hippe, Daniel J.; Sugarbaker, Larry J.

2013-01-01

n late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection And Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term network and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors reported on river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. This science plan was developed immediately following Hurricane Sandy to coordinate continuing USGS activities with other agencies and to guide continued data collection and analysis to ensure support for recovery and restoration efforts. The data, information, and tools that are produced by implementing this plan will: (1) further characterize impacts and changes, (2) guide mitigation and restoration of impacted communities and ecosystems, (3) inform a redevelopment strategy aimed at developing resilient coastal communities and ecosystems, (4) improve preparedness and responsiveness to the next hurricane or similar coastal disaster, and (5) enable improved hazard assessment, response, and recovery for future storms along the hurricane prone shoreline of the United States. The activities outlined in this plan are organized in five themes based on impact types and information needs. These USGS science themes are: Theme 1: Coastal topography and bathymetry. Theme 2: Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers. Theme 3: Impacts of storm surge and estuarine and bay hydrology. Theme 4: Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures. Theme 5: Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. A major emphasis in the implementation of this plan will be on interacting with stakeholders to better understand their specific data and information needs, to define the best way to make information available, and to support applications of USGS science and expertise to decisionmaking.

Microphysics, Meteorology, Microwave and Modeling of Mediterranean Storms: The M(sup 5) Problem

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Fiorino, Steven; Mugnai, Alberto; Panegrossi, Giulia; Tripoli, Gregory; Starr, David (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Comprehensive understanding of the microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ meteorological data analysis and radar-passive microwave data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales, particularly from synoptic scale down to mesoscale. The microphysical properties of and their controls on severe storms are intrinsically related to meteorological processes under which storms have evolved, processes which eventually select and control the dominant microphysical properties themselves. Insofar as hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the September 25-28/1992 Genova flood event, the October 5-7/1998 Friuli flood event, and the October 13-15/2000 Piemonte flood event (all taking place in northern Italy), developing a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution and the heterogeneous nature of precipitation fields within the storm domains. This involves convective development, stratiform transition and decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting proc esses. This also involves vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that determine details of the liquid/ice water contents, size distributions, and fall rates of the various modes of hydrometeors found within the storm environments. This paper presents detailed 4-dimensional analyses of the microphysical elements of the three severe Mediterranean storms identified above, investigated with the aid of SSM/I and TRMM satellite measurements (and other remote sensing measurements). The analyses are guided by nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulations at high resolution of the intense rain producing portions of the storm environments. The results emphasize how meteorological controls taking place at the large scale, coupled with localized terrain controls, ultimately determine the most salient features of the bulk microphysical properties of the storms. These results have bearing on precipitation remote sensing from space, and the role of modeling in designing precipitation retrieval algorithms.

Evaluation of Deep Learning Representations of Spatial Storm Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagne, D. J., II; Haupt, S. E.; Nychka, D. W.

2017-12-01

The spatial structure of a severe thunderstorm and its surrounding environment provide useful information about the potential for severe weather hazards, including tornadoes, hail, and high winds. Statistics computed over the area of a storm or from the pre-storm environment can provide descriptive information but fail to capture structural information. Because the storm environment is a complex, high-dimensional space, identifying methods to encode important spatial storm information in a low-dimensional form should aid analysis and prediction of storms by statistical and machine learning models. Principal component analysis (PCA), a more traditional approach, transforms high-dimensional data into a set of linearly uncorrelated, orthogonal components ordered by the amount of variance explained by each component. The burgeoning field of deep learning offers two potential approaches to this problem. Convolutional Neural Networks are a supervised learning method for transforming spatial data into a hierarchical set of feature maps that correspond with relevant combinations of spatial structures in the data. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) are an unsupervised deep learning model that uses two neural networks trained against each other to produce encoded representations of spatial data. These different spatial encoding methods were evaluated on the prediction of severe hail for a large set of storm patches extracted from the NCAR convection-allowing ensemble. Each storm patch contains information about storm structure and the near-storm environment. Logistic regression and random forest models were trained using the PCA and GAN encodings of the storm data and were compared against the predictions from a convolutional neural network. All methods showed skill over climatology at predicting the probability of severe hail. However, the verification scores among the methods were very similar and the predictions were highly correlated. Further evaluations are being performed to determine how the choice of input variables affects the results.

Significant impact of electrical storm on mortality in patients with structural heart disease and an implantable cardiac defibrillator.

PubMed

Noda, Takashi; Kurita, Takashi; Nitta, Takashi; Chiba, Yasutaka; Furushima, Hiroshi; Matsumoto, Naoki; Toyoshima, Takeshi; Shimizu, Akihiko; Mitamura, Hideo; Okumura, Ken; Ohe, Tohru; Aizawa, Yoshifusa

2018-03-15

Electrical storm (E-Storm), defined as multiple episodes of ventricular arrhythmias within a short period of time, is an important clinical problem in patients with an implantable cardiac defibrillator (ICD) including cardiac resynchronization therapy devices capable of defibrillation. The detailed clinical aspects of E-Storm in large populations especially for non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), however, remain unclear. This study was performed to elucidate the detailed clinical aspects of E-Storm, such as its predictors and prevalence among patients with structural heart disease including DCM. We analyzed the data of the Nippon Storm Study, which was a prospective observational study involving 1570 patients enrolled from 48 ICD centers. For the purpose of this study, we evaluated 1274 patients with structural heart disease, including 482 (38%) patients with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and 342 (27%) patients with DCM. During a median follow-up of 28months (interquartile range: 23 to 33months), E-Storm occurred in 84 (6.6%) patients. The incidence of E-Storm was not significantly different between patients with IHD and patients with DCM (log-rank p=0.52). Proportional hazard regression analyses showed that ICD implantation for secondary prevention of sudden cardiac death (p=0.0001) and QRS width (p=0.015) were the independent risk factors for E-storm. In a comparison between patients with and without E-Storm, survival curves after adjustment for clinical characteristics showed a significant difference in mortality. E-Storm was associated with subsequent mortality in patients with structural heart disease including DCM. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

PubMed

Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C; Cisternas, Pamela C; Repetto, Paula B

2017-01-01

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and communities at risk.

Hazard proximity and risk perception of tsunamis in coastal cities: Are people able to identify their risk?

PubMed Central

Arias, Juan Pablo; Bronfman, Nicolás C.; Cisternas, Pamela C.; Repetto, Paula B.

2017-01-01

Researchers have previously reported that hazard proximity can influence risk perception among individuals exposed to potential hazards. Understanding this relationship among coastline communities at risk of flood events caused by storms and/or tsunamis, is important because hazard proximity, should be recognized when planning and implementing preparation and mitigation actions against these events. Yet, we are not aware of studies that have examined this relationship among coastline inhabitants facing the risk of a tsunami. Consequently, the aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hazard proximity and perceived risk from tsunamis among coastline inhabitants. Participants were 487 residents of the coastal city of Iquique, Chile. They completed a survey during the spring of 2013 that assessed their perceived risk from several natural and non-natural hazards. We found that hazard proximity maintains a negative relationship with the perception of tsunami risk among coastline inhabitants. While this result confirms the general trend obtained in previous studies, this one is conclusive and significant. In contradiction with previous findings, we found that participants from the highest socioeconomic status reported the highest levels of risk perception. This finding can be explained by the fact that most participants from the highest socioeconomic status live closer to the coastline areas, so their risk perception reflects the place where they live, that is in a tsunami inundation zone. Once again, hazard proximity proved to be a determinant factor of risk perception. Our findings have important implications for the development of plans and programs for tsunami preparedness and mitigation. These indicate that individuals do use environmental cues to evaluate their own risk and can potentially make correct choices when having or not to evacuate. Also suggest that preparedness should incorporate how hazard proximity is recognized by individuals and communities at risk. PMID:29088230

Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-07-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

Dynamical complexity detection in geomagnetic activity indices using wavelet transforms and Tsallis entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balasis, G.; Daglis, I. A.; Papadimitriou, C.; Kalimeri, M.; Anastasiadis, A.; Eftaxias, K.

2008-12-01

Dynamical complexity detection for output time series of complex systems is one of the foremost problems in physics, biology, engineering, and economic sciences. Especially in magnetospheric physics, accurate detection of the dissimilarity between normal and abnormal states (e.g. pre-storm activity and magnetic storms) can vastly improve space weather diagnosis and, consequently, the mitigation of space weather hazards. Herein, we examine the fractal spectral properties of the Dst data using a wavelet analysis technique. We show that distinct changes in associated scaling parameters occur (i.e., transition from anti- persistent to persistent behavior) as an intense magnetic storm approaches. We then analyze Dst time series by introducing the non-extensive Tsallis entropy, Sq, as an appropriate complexity measure. The Tsallis entropy sensitively shows the complexity dissimilarity among different "physiological" (normal) and "pathological" states (intense magnetic storms). The Tsallis entropy implies the emergence of two distinct patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a higher degree of organization, and (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a lower degree of organization.

Dust Storm Impacts on Human Mars Mission Equipment and Operations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rucker, M. A.

2017-06-01

NASA has accumulated a wealth of experience between the Apollo program and robotic Mars rover programs, but key differences between those missions and a human Mars mission that will require unique approaches to mitigate potential dust storm concerns.

40 CFR 122.32 - As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program? 122.32 Section 122.32 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM Permit...

40 CFR 122.32 - As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program? 122.32 Section 122.32 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM Permit...

Postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the 2012 Little Bear Fire, south-central New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillery, Anne C.; Matherne, Anne Marie

2013-01-01

A preliminary hazard assessment was developed of the debris-flow potential from 56 drainage basins burned by the Little Bear Fire in south-central New Mexico in June 2012. The Little Bear Fire burned approximately 179 square kilometers (km2) (44,330 acres), including about 143 km2 (35,300 acres) of National Forest System lands of the Lincoln National Forest. Within the Lincoln National Forest, about 72 km2 (17,664 acres) of the White Mountain Wilderness were burned. The burn area also included about 34 km2 (8,500 acres) of private lands. Burn severity was high or moderate on 53 percent of the burn area. The area burned is at risk of substantial postwildfire erosion, such as that caused by debris flows and flash floods. A postwildfire debris-flow hazard assessment of the area burned by the Little Bear Fire was performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Lincoln National Forest. A set of two empirical hazard-assessment models developed by using data from recently burned drainage basins throughout the intermountain Western United States was used to estimate the probability of debris-flow occurrence and volume of debris flows along the burn area drainage network and for selected drainage basins within the burn area. The models incorporate measures of areal burn extent and severity, topography, soils, and storm rainfall intensity to estimate the probability and volume of debris flows following the fire. Relative hazard rankings of postwildfire debris flows were produced by summing the estimated probability and volume ranking to illustrate those areas with the highest potential occurrence of debris flows with the largest volumes. The probability that a drainage basin could produce debris flows and the volume of a possible debris flow at the basin outlet were estimated for three design storms: (1) a 2-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 27 millimeters (mm) (a 50 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); (2) a 10-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 42 mm (a 10 percent chance of occurrence in any given year); and (3) a 25-year-recurrence, 30-minute-duration rainfall of 51 mm (a 4 percent chance of occurrence in any given year). Thirty-nine percent of the 56 drainage basins modeled have a high (greater than 80 percent) probability of debris flows in response to the 2-year design storm; 80 percent of the modeled drainage basins have a high probability of debris flows in response to the 25-year design storm. For debris-flow volume, 7 percent of the modeled drainage basins have an estimated debris-flow volume greater than 100,000 cubic meters (m3) in response to the 2-year design storm; 9 percent of the drainage basins are included in the greater than 100,000 m3 category for both the 10-year and the 25-year design storms. Drainage basins in the greater than 100,000 m3 volume category also received the highest combined hazard ranking. The maps presented herein may be used to prioritize areas where emergency erosion mitigation or other protective measures may be needed prior to rainstorms within these drainage basins, their outlets, or areas downstream from these drainage basins within the 2- to 3-year period of vulnerability. This work is preliminary and is subject to revision. The assessment herein is provided on the condition that neither the U.S. Geological Survey nor the U.S. Government may be held liable for any damages resulting from the authorized or unauthorized use of the assessment.

Magnetic monitoring in Saguaro National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.; Finn, Carol; Gamez Valdez, Yesenia C.; Swann, Don

2017-06-02

On a sandy, arid plain, near the Rincon Moun­tain Visitor Center of Saguaro National Park, tucked in among brittlebush, creosote, and other hardy desert plants, is an unusual type of observatory—a small unmanned station that is used for monitor­ing the Earth’s variable magnetic field. Named for the nearby city of Tucson, Arizona, the observatory is 1 of 14 that the Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey operates at various locations across the United States and Ter­ritories.Data from USGS magnetic observatories, including the Tucson observatory, as well as observatories operated by institutions in other countries, record a variety of signals related to a wide diversity of physical phenomena in the Earth’s interior and its surrounding outer-space environment. The data are used for geomagnetic mapping and surveying, for fundamental scientific research, and for assessment of magnetic storms, which can be hazardous for the activities and infra­structure of our modern, technologically based society. The U.S. Geological Survey observatory service is an integral part of a U.S. national project for monitoring and assessing space weather hazards.

Characterizing the Relationships Among Lightning and Storm Parameters: Lightning as a Proxy Variable

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Raghavan, R.; William, E.; Weber, M.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Wolfson, M.; Hodanish, S.; Sharp. D.

1997-01-01

We have gained important insights from prior studies that have suggested relationships between lightning and storm growth, decay, convective rain flux, vertical distribution of storm mass and echo volume in the region, and storm energetics. A study was initiated in the Summer of 1996 to determine how total (in-cloud plus ground) lightning observations might provide added knowledge to the forecaster in the determination and identification of severe thunderstorms and weather hazards in real-time. The Melbourne Weather Office was selected as a primary site to conduct this study because Melbourne is the only site in the world with continuous and open access to total lightning (LDAR) data and a Doppler (WSR-88D) radar. A Lightning Imaging Sensor Data Applications Demonstration (LISDAD) system was integrated into the forecaster's workstation during the Summer 1996 to allow the forecaster to interact in real-time with the multi-sensor data being displayed. LISDAD currently ingests LDAR data, the cloud-to-ground National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data, and the Melbourne radar data in f real-time. The interactive features provide the duty forecaster the ability to perform quick diagnostics on storm cells of interest. Upon selection of a storm cell, a pop-up box appears displaying the time-history of various storm parameters (e.g., maximum radar reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, NLDN and LDAR lightning flash rates, storm-based vertically integrated liquid water content). This product is archived to aid on detailed post-analysis.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Solar Eruptions, CMEs and Space Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, Nat

2011-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large-scale magnetized plasma structures ejected from the Sun and propagate far into the interplanetary medium. CMEs represent energy output from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. The plasma clouds can drive shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. The plasma clouds also arrive at Earth in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced currents that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines. This lecture presents an overview of the origin, propagation, and geospace consequences of solar storms.

Strides made in understanding space weather at Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buonsanto, M. J.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

Disturbances on the Sun can produce dramatic effects in the space environment surrounding the Earth. Energetic particle effects become more intense and pose a hazard to astronauts and damage spacecraft electronics; satellite lifetimes are shortened by increased atmospheric drag, and communications and navigation are disrupted by the changing plasma environment.“Space weather” has become the modern idiom for these effects, and periods of high activity are called geomagnetic storms. During a storm the ionosphere can be severely altered. A typical episode may reveal either a large decrease (negative phase) or increase (positive phase) in the normal daily peak ion density (NmF2) or total electron content (TEC). These changes in ion density are sometimes called ionospheric storms, and often persist for more than a day after a period of high geomagnetic activity.

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

Elevation uncertainty in coastal inundation hazard assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gesch, Dean B.; Cheval, Sorin

2012-01-01

Coastal inundation has been identified as an important natural hazard that affects densely populated and built-up areas (Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, 2008). Inundation, or coastal flooding, can result from various physical processes, including storm surges, tsunamis, intense precipitation events, and extreme high tides. Such events cause quickly rising water levels. When rapidly rising water levels overwhelm flood defenses, especially in heavily populated areas, the potential of the hazard is realized and a natural disaster results. Two noteworthy recent examples of such natural disasters resulting from coastal inundation are the Hurricane Katrina storm surge in 2005 along the Gulf of Mexico coast in the United States, and the tsunami in northern Japan in 2011. Longer term, slowly varying processes such as land subsidence (Committee on Floodplain Mapping Technologies, 2007) and sea-level rise also can result in coastal inundation, although such conditions do not have the rapid water level rise associated with other flooding events. Geospatial data are a critical resource for conducting assessments of the potential impacts of coastal inundation, and geospatial representations of the topography in the form of elevation measurements are a primary source of information for identifying the natural and human components of the landscape that are at risk. Recently, the quantity and quality of elevation data available for the coastal zone have increased markedly, and this availability facilitates more detailed and comprehensive hazard impact assessments.

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

PubMed

Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

2014-01-01

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

Climate change, atmospheric rivers, and floods in California - a multimodel analysis of storm frequency and magnitude changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.

2011-01-01

Recent studies have documented the important role that "atmospheric rivers" (ARs) of concentrated near-surface water vapor above the Pacific Ocean play in the storms and floods in California, Oregon, and Washington. By delivering large masses of warm, moist air (sometimes directly from the Tropics), ARs establish conditions for the kinds of high snowlines and copious orographic rainfall that have caused the largest historical storms. In many California rivers, essentially all major historical floods have been associated with AR storms. As an example of the kinds of storm changes that may influence future flood frequencies, the occurrence of such storms in historical observations and in a 7-model ensemble of historical-climate and projected future climate simulations is evaluated. Under an A2 greenhouse-gas emissions scenario (with emissions accelerating throughout the 21st Century), average AR statistics do not change much in most climate models; however, extremes change notably. Years with many AR episodes increase, ARs with higher-than-historical water-vapor transport rates increase, and AR storm-temperatures increase. Furthermore, the peak season within which most ARs occur is commonly projected to lengthen, extending the flood-hazard season. All of these tendencies could increase opportunities for both more frequent and more severe floods in California under projected climate changes. ?? 2011 American Water Resources Association.

Changing Characteristics of convective storms: Results from a continental-scale convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Bullock, R.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Convective storms are causing extremes such as flooding, landslides, and wind gusts and are related to the development of tornadoes and hail. Convective storms are also the dominant source of summer precipitation in most regions of the Contiguous United States. So far little is known about how convective storms might change due to global warming. This is mainly because of the coarse grid spacing of state-of-the-art climate models that are not able to resolve deep convection explicitly. Instead, coarse resolution models rely on convective parameterization schemes that are a major source of errors and uncertainties in climate change projections. Convection-permitting climate simulations, with grid-spacings smaller than 4 km, show significant improvements in the simulation of convective storms by representing deep convection explicitly. Here we use a pair of 13-year long current and future convection-permitting climate simulations that cover large parts of North America. We use the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension (MODE-TD) to analyze the model performance in reproducing storm features in the current climate and to investigate their potential future changes. We show that the model is able to accurately reproduce the main characteristics of convective storms in the present climate. The comparison with the future climate simulation shows that convective storms significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and size. Furthermore, they are projected to move slower which could result in a substantial increase in convective storm-related hazards such as flash floods, debris flows, and landslides. Some regions, such as the North Atlantic, might experience a regime shift that leads to significantly stronger storms that are unrepresented in the current climate.

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Matthias; Weatherly, Hamish

2003-09-01

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m 3/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is -1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.

Seepage and Piping through Levees and Dikes using 2D and 3D Modeling Codes

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

by the Hydrologic Systems Branch of the Flood and Storm Protection Division (CEERD-HF), U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal ...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 6- 6 Flood & Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Program Seepage and Piping through Levees and Dikes Using 2D and 3D...Flood & Coastal Storm Damage Reduction Program ERDC/CHL TR-16-6 June 2016 Seepage and Piping through Levees and Dikes Using 2D and 3D Modeling Codes

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

Spatial relationships between tropical cyclone frequencies and population densities in Haiti since the 19th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klose, C. D.

2011-12-01

The second edition of the United Nations Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction in 2011 outlined that the worldwide physical exposure to tropical cyclones increased by 192 per cent between 1970 and 2010. For the past 160 years, the Republic of Haiti has experienced numerous tropical storms and hurricanes which may have directly effected the country's development path. However, statistical data regarding storm frequencies and population densities in space and time show that the population's exposure in Haiti may have more negatively influenced its development than the actual number of storms and hurricanes. Haitians, in particular, those living in urban areas have been exposed to much higher tropical cyclone hazards than rural areas since the second half of the 20th century. Specifically, more storms made landfall in regions of accelerated migration/urbanization, such as, in departments Ouest, Artibonite, Nord, and Nord-Ouest with Haiti's four largest cities Port-au-Prince, Gonaives, Cap-Haitien and Port-de-Paix.

Risks, Health Consequences, and Response Challenges for Small-Island-Based Populations: Observations From the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

PubMed

Shultz, James M; Kossin, James P; Shepherd, J Marshall; Ransdell, Justine M; Walshe, Rory; Kelman, Ilan; Galea, Sandro

2018-04-06

ABSTRACTThe intensely active 2017 Atlantic basin hurricane season provided an opportunity to examine how climate drivers, including warming oceans and rising seas, exacerbated tropical cyclone hazards. The season also highlighted the unique vulnerabilities of populations residing on Small Island Developing States (SIDS) to the catastrophic potential of these storms. During 2017, 22 of the 29 Caribbean SIDS were affected by at least one named storm, and multiple SIDS experienced extreme damage. This paper aims to review the multiplicity of storm impacts on Caribbean SIDS throughout the 2017 season, to explicate the influences of climate drivers on storm formation and intensity, to explore the propensity of SIDS to sustain severe damage and prolonged disruption of essential services, to document the spectrum of public health consequences, and to delineate the daunting hurdles that challenged emergency response and recovery operations for island-based, disaster-affected populations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 13).

Hurricane Sandy: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sopkin, Kristin L.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Morgan, Karen L.M.; Guy, Kristy K.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.

2014-01-01

Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall on October 29, 2012, and impacted a long swath of the U.S. Atlantic coastline. The barrier islands were breached in a number of places and beach and dune erosion occurred along most of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, the U.S. Geological Survey collected post-Hurricane Sandy oblique aerial photography and lidar topographic surveys to document the changes that occurred as a result of the storm. Comparisons of post-storm photographs to those collected prior to Sandy’s landfall were used to characterize the nature, magnitude, and spatial variability of hurricane-induced coastal changes. Analysis of pre- and post-storm lidar elevations was used to quantify magnitudes of change in shoreline position, dune elevation, and beach width. Erosion was observed along the coast from North Carolina to New York; however, as would be expected over such a large region, extensive spatial variability in storm response was observed.

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The results will be visualized in a set of national risk profile documents intended to form the basis for conversations with governments on risk reduction and risk financing strategies.

VULNERABILITY TO HURRICANE DAMAGE ON THE U.S. GULF COAST SINCE 1950

PubMed Central

LOGAN, JOHN R.; XU, ZENGWANG

2015-01-01

We study hurricane risk on the U.S. Gulf Coast during 1950–2005, estimating the wind damage and storm surge from every hurricane in this extended period. Wind damage is estimated from the known path and wind speeds of individual storms and calibrated to fit actual damage reports for a sample of Gulf Coast storms. Storm surge is estimated using the SLOSH model developed by NOAA. These models provide the first comprehensive overview of the hurricane storm hazard as it has been experienced over a fifty-six-year period. We link the estimated damage with information on the population and specific socio-demographic components of the population (by age, race, and poverty status). Results show that white, young adult, and nonpoor populations have shifted over time away from zones with higher risk of wind damage, while more vulnerable population groups–the elderly, African Americans, and poor—have moved in the opposite direction. All groups have moved away from areas with high risk of storm surge since 1970. But in this case, perhaps because living near the water is still perceived as an amenity, those at highest risk are whites, elderly, and nonpoor households. Here exposure represents a trade-off between the risk and the amenity. PMID:25926706

Detection and Prediction of Hail Storms in Satellite Imagery using Deep Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullman, M.; Gurung, I.; Ramachandran, R.; Maskey, M.

2017-12-01

Natural hazards, such as damaging hail storms, dramatically disrupt both industry and agriculture, having significant socio-economic impacts in the United States. In 2016, hail was responsible for 3.5 billion and 23 million dollars in damage to property and crops, respectively, making it the second costliest 2016 weather phenomenon in the United States. The destructive nature and high cost of hail storms has driven research into the development of more accurate hail-prediction algorithms in an effort to mitigate societal impacts. Recently, weather forecasting efforts have turned to deep learning neural networks because neural networks can more effectively model complex, nonlinear, dynamical phenomenon that exist in large datasets through multiple stages of transformation and representation. In an effort to improve hail-prediction techniques, we propose a deep learning technique that leverages satellite imagery to detect and predict the occurrence of hail storms. The technique is applied to satellite imagery from 2006 to 2016 for the contiguous United States and incorporates hail reports obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information Storm Events Database for training and validation purposes. In this presentation, we describe a novel approach to predicting hail via a neural network model that creates a large labeled dataset of hail storms, the accuracy and results of the model, and its applications for improving hail forecasting.

Assessing Flood Risks and Planning for Resiliency in New Jersey: A Case Study on the Use of Online Flood Mapping and Resilience Planning Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auermuller, L. M.; Gatto, J.; Huch, C.

2015-12-01

The highly developed nature of New Jersey's coastline, barrier island and lagoon communities make them particularly vulnerable to storm surge, sea level rise and flooding. The impacts of Hurricane Sandy have enlightened coastal communities to these realities. Recognizing these vulnerabilities, the Jacques Cousteau National Research Reserve (JC NERR), Rutgers Center for Remote Sensing and Spatial Analysis (CRSSA), Rutgers Bloustein School and the Barnegat Bay Partnership (BBP) have developed web-based tools to assist NJ's coastal communities in visualizing and planning for future local impacts. NJFloodMapper and NJAdapt are two complementary interactive mapping websites that visualize different current and future flood hazards. These hazard layers can be combined with additional data including critical facilities, evacuation routes, socioeconomic and environmental data. Getting to Resilience is an online self-assessment tool developed to assist communities reduce vulnerability and increase preparedness by linking planning, mitigation, and adaptation. Through this interactive process communities will learn how their preparedness can yield valuable points through voluntary programs like FEMA's Community Rating System and Sustainable Jersey. The assessment process can also increase the community's understanding of where future vulnerabilities should be addressed through hazard mitigation planning. Since Superstorm Sandy, more than thirty communities in New Jersey have been provided technical assistance in assessing their risks and vulnerabilities to coastal hazards, and have begun to understand how to better plan and prepare for short and long-term changes along their shorelines.

Napa River Salt Marsh Restoration Project. Volume 2: Environmental Impact Statement Comments Letters and Response

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-01

The SWMPs must include a program for implementing new development and construction site storm water quality controls. The objective of this...mitigate those impacts (see Storm Water Quality Control, below). The Regional Board has adopted U.S. EPA’s Clean Water Act Section 404(b)(1...impacts to wetlands or other Waters of the State. Storm Water Quality Control Storm water is the major source of fresh water to creeks and waterways. Storm

Guidance for the Development of Air Force Storm Water Sampling Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-09-01

38 Storm Water Quality Monitoring ................. 39 Determining Flow Rate ....................... 42 Weirs and Flumes... water quality monitoring it is not possible to analyze the entire nmoff from a drainage basin. The objective of water quality sampling is to collect a...development of storm water pollution prevention plans. Best management practices can also be developed to control the pollution sources identified. In storm

Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

2010-12-01

Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps toward a more quantitative, predictive approach to understanding the potential sources, types, environmental behavior, and health implications of HM predicted to result from these disaster scenarios. Although only a first step, this qualitative approach will help enhance planning for, mitigation of, and resilience to environmental-health consequences of future disasters. This qualitative approach also requires careful communication to stakeholders that does not sensationalize or overstate potential problems, but rather conveys plausible impacts and next steps to improve understanding of potential risks and their mitigation.

Preparing for Emergencies: A Checklist for People with Neuromuscular Diseases

MedlinePlus

TORNADO • FLASH FLOOD • EARTHQUAKE • WINTER STORM • HURRICANE • FIRE • HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SPILL Preparing for Emergencies A Checklist for ... head for a basement when there is a tornado warning, but most basements aren’t wheelchair-accessible. ...

Braving the Elements: Protecting Schools against Weather-Related Disasters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breighner, Mary

1997-01-01

Discusses common weather-related hazards (floods, windstorms, and winter storms) and provides some steps administrators can take to protect their schools. Suggests administrators periodically assess their school's commitment to loss control, housekeeping, suitable building construction and reinforcement, sprinkler systems, water supply,…

Rainfall, discharge, and water-quality data during stormwater monitoring, H-1 storm drain, Oahu, Hawaii, July 1, 2009, to June 30, 2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Presley, Todd K.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.

2010-01-01

Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. The program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff collected by the H-1 storm drain on the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. This report summarizes rainfall, discharge, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2009, and June 30, 2010. As part of this program, rainfall and continuous discharge data were collected at the H-1 storm drain. During the year, sampling strategy and sample processing methods were modified to improve the characterization of the effects of discharge from the storm drain on the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. During July 1, 2009, to February 1, 2010, samples were collected from only the H-1 storm drain. Beginning February 2, 2010, samples were collected simultaneously from the H-1 storm drain and the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal at a location about 50 feet upstream of the discharge point of the H-1 storm drain. Three storms were sampled during July 1, 2009, to June 30, 2010. All samples were collected using automatic samplers. For the storm of August 12, 2009, grab samples (for oil and grease, and total petroleum hydrocarbons) and a composite sample were collected. The composite sample was analyzed for total suspended solids, nutrients, and selected dissolved and total (filtered and unfiltered) trace metals (cadmium, chromium, nickel, copper, lead, and zinc). Two storms were sampled in March 2010 at the H-1 storm drain and from the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. Two samples were collected during the storm of March 4, 2010, and six samples were collected during the storm of March 8, 2010. These two storms were sampled using the modified strategy, in which discrete samples from the automatic sampler were processed and analyzed individually, rather than as a composite sample, using the simultaneously collected samples from the H-1 storm drain and from the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal. The discrete samples were analyzed for some or all of the following constituents: total suspended solids, nutrients, oil and grease, and selected dissolved (filtered) trace metals (cadmium, chromium, nickel, copper, lead, and zinc). Five quality-assurance/quality-control samples were analyzed during the year. These samples included one laboratory-duplicate, one field-duplicate, and one matrix-spike sample prepared and analyzed with the storm samples. In addition, two inorganic blank-water samples, one sample at the H-1 storm drain and one sample at the Manoa-Palolo Drainage Canal, were collected by running the blank water (water purified of all inorganic constituents) through the sampling and processing systems after cleaning automatic sampler lines to verify that the sampling lines were not contaminated.

An Integrated Scenario Ensemble-Based Framework for Hurricane Evacuation Modeling: Part 2-Hazard Modeling.

PubMed

Blanton, Brian; Dresback, Kendra; Colle, Brian; Kolar, Randy; Vergara, Humberto; Hong, Yang; Leonardo, Nicholas; Davidson, Rachel; Nozick, Linda; Wachtendorf, Tricia

2018-04-25

Hurricane track and intensity can change rapidly in unexpected ways, thus making predictions of hurricanes and related hazards uncertain. This inherent uncertainty often translates into suboptimal decision-making outcomes, such as unnecessary evacuation. Representing this uncertainty is thus critical in evacuation planning and related activities. We describe a physics-based hazard modeling approach that (1) dynamically accounts for the physical interactions among hazard components and (2) captures hurricane evolution uncertainty using an ensemble method. This loosely coupled model system provides a framework for probabilistic water inundation and wind speed levels for a new, risk-based approach to evacuation modeling, described in a companion article in this issue. It combines the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model, the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) hydrologic model, and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) storm surge, tide, and wind-wave model to compute inundation levels and wind speeds for an ensemble of hurricane predictions. Perturbations to WRF's initial and boundary conditions and different model physics/parameterizations generate an ensemble of storm solutions, which are then used to drive the coupled hydrologic + hydrodynamic models. Hurricane Isabel (2003) is used as a case study to illustrate the ensemble-based approach. The inundation, river runoff, and wind hazard results are strongly dependent on the accuracy of the mesoscale meteorological simulations, which improves with decreasing lead time to hurricane landfall. The ensemble envelope brackets the observed behavior while providing "best-case" and "worst-case" scenarios for the subsequent risk-based evacuation model. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Turbulence as observed by concurrent measurements made at NSSL using weather radar, Doppler radar, Doppler lidar and aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Jean T.

1987-01-01

As air traffic increases and aircraft capability increases in range and operating altitude, the exposure to weather hazards increases. Turbulence and wind shears are two of the most important of these hazards that must be taken into account if safe flight operations are to be accomplished. Beginning in the early 1960's, Project Rough Rider began thunderstorm investigations. Past and present efforts at the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) to measure these flight safety hazards and to describe the use of Doppler radar to detect and qualify these hazards are summarized. In particular, the evolution of the Doppler-measured radial velocity spectrum width and its applicability to the problem of safe flight is presented.

A Coordinated USGS Science Response to Hurricane Sandy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, S.; Buxton, H. T.; Andersen, M.; Dean, T.; Focazio, M. J.; Haines, J.; Hainly, R. A.

2013-12-01

In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term networks and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors tracked river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm-related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. Immediately following Hurricane Sandy the USGS developed a science plan, 'Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery'. The plan will ensure continuing coordination of internal USGS activities as well as enhancing our work with other agencies. The data, information, and tools that are being produced by implementing this plan will: (1) further characterize impacts and changes, (2) guide mitigation and restoration of impacted communities and ecosystems, (3) inform a redevelopment strategy aimed at developing resilient coastal communities and ecosystems, (4) improve preparedness and responsiveness to the next hurricane or similar coastal disaster, and (5) enable improved hazard assessment, response, and recovery for future storms along the hurricane prone shoreline of the United States. The activities outlined in the plan are organized in five themes based on impact types and information needs. These USGS science themes are: Theme 1: Coastal topography and bathymetry. Theme 2: Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers. Theme 3: Impacts of storm surge and estuarine and bay hydrology. Theme 4: Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures. Theme 5: Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. The major emphases in the implementation of this plan are interacting with stakeholders to better understand their specific data and information needs, engaging with other Federal agencies and non-governmental agencies to encourage collaboration and avoid duplication, defining the best way to make information available, and providing applications of USGS science and expertise to support decision-making.

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis System Digital Elevation Model: Report 1: Intermediate Submission No. 1.1

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-01

Center 1261 Duck Rd. Kitty Hawk, NC 27949 Lisa Stillwell, Margaret Blanchard-Montgomery, Brian Blanton Renaissance Computing Institute 100 Europa...Insurance Studies in the study area, and serve as the basis for new coastal hazard analysis and ultimately updated Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs). Study... hazard zones in coastal areas of the United States. Under Task Order HSFE03-06-X-0023, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and project partners are

Defining Coastal Storm and Quantifying Storms Applying Coastal Storm Impulse Parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoudpour, Nader

2014-05-01

What defines a storm condition and what would initiate a "storm" has not been uniquely defined among scientists and engineers. Parameters that have been used to define a storm condition can be mentioned as wind speed, beach erosion and storm hydrodynamics parameters such as wave height and water levels. Some of the parameters are storm consequential such as beach erosion and some are not directly related to the storm hydrodynamics such as wind speed. For the purpose of the presentation, the different storm conditions based on wave height, water levels, wind speed and beach erosion will be discussed and assessed. However, it sounds more scientifically to have the storm definition based on the hydrodynamic parameters such as wave height, water level and storm duration. Once the storm condition is defined and storm has initiated, the severity of the storm would be a question to forecast and evaluate the hazard and analyze the risk in order to determine the appropriate responses. The correlation of storm damages to the meteorological and hydrodynamics parameters can be defined as a storm scale, storm index or storm parameter and it is needed to simplify the complexity of variation involved developing the scale for risk analysis and response management. A newly introduced Coastal Storm Impulse (COSI) parameter quantifies storms into one number for a specific location and storm event. The COSI parameter is based on the conservation of linear, horizontal momentum to combine storm surge, wave dynamics, and currents over the storm duration. The COSI parameter applies the principle of conservation of momentum to physically combine the hydrodynamic variables per unit width of shoreline. This total momentum is then integrated over the duration of the storm to determine the storm's impulse to the coast. The COSI parameter employs the mean, time-averaged nonlinear (Fourier) wave momentum flux, over the wave period added to the horizontal storm surge momentum above the Mean High Water (MHW) integrated over the storm duration. The COSI parameter methodology has been applied to a 10-year data set from 1994 to 2003 at US Army Corps of Engineers, Field Research Facility (FRF) located on the Atlantic Ocean in Duck, North Carolina. The storm duration was taken as the length of time (hours) that the spectral significant wave heights were equal or greater than 1.6 meters for at least a 12 hour, continuous period. Wave heights were measured in 8 meters water depth and water levels measured at the NOAA/NOS tide gauge at the end of the FRF pier. The 10-year data set were analyzed applying the aforementioned storm criteria and produced 148 coastal events including Hurricanes and Northeasters. The results of this analysis and application of the COSI parameter to determine "Extra Ordinary" storms in Federal Projects for the Gulf of Mexico, 2012 hurricane season will be discussed at the time of presentation.

Debris-Flow Hazards within the Appalachian Mountains of the Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Morgan, Benjamin A.

2008-01-01

Tropical storms, including hurricanes, often inflict major damage to property and disrupt the lives of people living in coastal areas of the Eastern United States. These storms also are capable of generating catastrophic landslides within the steep slopes of the Appalachian Mountains. Heavy rainfall from hurricanes, cloudbursts, and thunderstorms can generate rapidly moving debris flows that are among the most dangerous and damaging type of landslides. This fact sheet explores the nature and occurrence of debris flows in the central and southern Appalachian Mountains, which extend from central Pennsylvania to northern Alabama.

Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

2018-01-01

Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

40 CFR 122.30 - What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false What are the objectives of the storm... objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s? (a) Sections 122.30 through 122.37 are written in a... 402(p)(6) of the Clean Water Act, the purpose of this portion of the storm water program is to...

40 CFR 122.30 - What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 23 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false What are the objectives of the storm... objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s? (a) Sections 122.30 through 122.37 are written in a... 402(p)(6) of the Clean Water Act, the purpose of this portion of the storm water program is to...

40 CFR 122.30 - What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2014-07-01 2013-07-01 true What are the objectives of the storm... objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s? (a) Sections 122.30 through 122.37 are written in a... 402(p)(6) of the Clean Water Act, the purpose of this portion of the storm water program is to...

Assessing community vulnerabilities to natural hazards on the Island of Hawaii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishioka, Chris; Delparte, Donna

2010-05-01

The island of Hawaii is susceptible to numerous natural hazards such as tsunamis, flooding, lava flow, earthquakes, hurricanes, landslides, wildfires and storm surge. The impact of a natural disaster on the island's communities has the potential to endanger peoples' lives and threaten critical infrastructure, homes, businesses and economic drivers such as tourism. A Geographic Information System (GIS) has the ability to assess community vulnerabilities by examining the spatial relationships between hazard zones, socioeconomic infrastructure and demographic data. By drawing together existing datasets, GIS was used to examine a number of community vulnerabilities. Key areas of interest were government services, utilities, property assets, industry and transportation. GIS was also used to investigate population dynamics in hazard zones. Identification of community vulnerabilities from GIS analysis can support mitigation measures and assist planning and response measures to natural hazards.

JPSS Data Product Applications for Monitoring Severe Weather and Environmental Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, X.; Zhou, L.; Divakarla, M. G.; Atkins, T.

2016-12-01

The Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) next-generation polar-orbiting operational environmental satellite system. The Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) is the first satellite in the JPSS series. One of the JPSS supported key mission areas is to reduce the loss of life from high-impact weather events while improving efficient economies through environmental information. Combining with the sensors on other polar and geostationary satellite platforms, JPSS observations provided much enhanced capabilities for the Nation's essential products and services, including forecasting severe weather like hurricanes, potential tornadic outbreaks, and blizzards days in advance, and assessing environmental hazards such as droughts, floods, forest fires, poor air quality and harmful coastal waters. Sensor and Environmental Data Records (SDRs/EDRs) derived from S-NPP and follow-on JPSS satellites provide critical data for environmental assessments, forecasts and warnings. This paper demonstrates the use of S-NPP science data products towards analysis events of severe weather and environmental hazards, such as Paraguay Flooding, Hurricane Iselle, the record-breaking winter storm system that impacted the US East Coast area early this year, and Fort McMurray wildfire. A brief description of these examples and a detailed discussion of the winter storm event are presented in this paper. VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) and ATMS (Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder) SDR/EDR products collected from multiple days of S-NPP observations are analyzed to study the progression of the winter storm and illustrate how JPSS products captured the storm system. The products used for this study included VIIRS day/night band (DNB) and true color images, ocean turbidity images, snow cover fraction, and the multi-sensor snowfall rates. Quantitative evaluation of the ATMS derived snowfall rates with the radar estimates revealed good agreement. Use of STAR JPSS product monitoring and visualization tools to evaluate these events, and applications of these tools for anomaly detection, mitigation, and science maintenance of the long-term stability of the data products is also presented in this paper.

Five years from the great 2010 Tsunami in Chile: learning from multi-hazard disasters and improving resileincy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cienfuegos, R.; Gonzalez, G.; Repetto, P.; Cipriano, A.; Moris, R.; Catalan, P. A.; Guic, E.; Martin, J. C. D. L. L.

2016-12-01

The Research Center for Integrated Natural Hazards Management (CIGIDEN) has developed in recent years (supported by the Fondap/Conicyt Excellence in research center's program) active efforts to connect science and public institutions in charge of disaster management in Chile. We have been able to reach in particular the National Emergency Office (ONEMI) and the National Hydrographic and Oceanographic Naval Service (SHOA), and develop joint specific programs that have been mutually beneficial both for research enrichment and the operation of the emergency response system. Through these efforts, also supplemented by other Chilean and International research institutions, we analyzed together issues and challenges from the systemic failure experienced by the emergency system in Chile after the 2010 earthquake and tsunami. In this talk we will review some of the main collaboration actions and their outcomes, connecting them to the extreme events that impacted Chile in 2015 (earthquakes, tsunamis, storm waves, and flash floods). In particular we will describe the effort that CIGIDEN has developed i) with ONEMI in developing instruments to assess community preparedness and awareness and to understand tsunami evacuation behaviors; and ii) with SHOA to develop a new Integrated Decision Support System for Tsunami alerting that is being transferred to SHOA in September 2015, and was successfully tested offline during the September 16th, 2015, tsunami.

Severe Autumn storms in future Western Europe with a warmer Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baatsen, Michiel; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Van Delden, Aarnout J.; de Vries, Hylke

2015-08-01

Simulations with a very high resolution (~25 km) global climate model indicate that more severe Autumn storms will impact Europe in a warmer future climate. The observed increase is mainly attributed to storms with a tropical origin, especially in the later part of the twentyfirst century. As their genesis region expands, tropical cyclones become more intense and their chances of reaching Europe increase. This paper investigates the properties and evolution of such storms and clarifies the future changes. The studied tropical cyclones feature a typical evolution of tropical development, extratropical transition and a re-intensification. A reduction of the transit area between regions of tropical and extratropical cyclogenesis increases the probability of re-intensification. Many of the modelled storms exhibit hybrid properties in a considerable part of their life cycle during which they exhibit the hazards of both tropical and extratropical systems. In addition to tropical cyclones, other systems such as cold core extratropical storms mainly originating over the Gulf Stream region also increasingly impact Western Europe. Despite their different history, all of the studied storms have one striking similarity: they form a warm seclusion. The structure, intensity and frequency of storms in the present climate are compared to observations using the MERRA and IBTrACS datasets. Damaging winds associated with the occurrence of a sting jet are observed in a large fraction of the cyclones during their final stage. Baroclinic instability is of great importance for the (re-)intensification of the storms. Furthermore, so-called atmospheric rivers providing tropical air prove to be vital for the intensification through diabatic heating and will increase considerably in strength in the future, as will the associated flooding risks.

The return periods and risk assessment of severe dust storms in Inner Mongolia with consideration of the main contributing factors.

PubMed

Liu, Xueqin; Li, Ning; Xie, Wei; Wu, Jidong; Zhang, Peng; Ji, Zhonghui

2012-09-01

This study presents a methodology for return period analysis and risk assessment of severe dust storm disaster. Meteorological observation data, soil moisture data, and remote sensing data from 30 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia (western China) from 1985 to 2006 were used for the study. A composite index of severe dust storm disaster (Index I (SDS)) based on the influence mechanisms of the main contributing factors was developed by using the analytic hierarchy process and the weighted comprehensive method, and the hazard risk curves (i.e., the transcendental probability curves of I (SDS)) for the 30 stations were established using the parameter estimation method. We then analyzed the risk of the occurrence of severe dust storm under different scenarios of 5-, 10-, 20-, and 50-year return periods. The results show that the risk decreased from west to east across Inner Mongolia, and there are four severe dust storm occurrence peak value centers, including Guaizihu, Jilantai, Hailisu, and Zhurihe-Erenhot. The severity of dust storms in seven places will be intolerable in the 50-year return period scenario and in three places in the 20-year return period scenario. These results indicate that these locations should concentrate forces on disaster prevention, monitoring, and early warning. The I (SDS) was developed as an easily understandable tool useful for the assessment and comparison of the relative risk of severe dust storm disasters in different areas. The risk assessment was specifically intended to support local and national government agencies in their management of severe dust storm disasters in their efforts to (1) make resource allocation decisions, (2) make high-level planning decisions, and (3) raise public awareness of severe dust storm risk.

Seasonal Extratropical Storm Activity Potential Predictability and its Origins during the Cold Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pingree-Shippee, K. A.; Zwiers, F. W.; Atkinson, D. E.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) often produce extreme hazardous weather conditions, such as high winds, blizzard conditions, heavy precipitation, and flooding, all of which can have detrimental socio-economic impacts. The North American east and west coastal regions are both strongly influenced by ETCs and, subsequently, land-based, coastal, and maritime economic sectors in Canada and the USA all experience strong adverse impacts from extratropical storm activity from time to time. Society would benefit if risks associated with ETCs and storm activity variability could be reliably predicted for the upcoming season. Skillful prediction would enable affected sectors to better anticipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to storm activity variability and the associated risks and impacts. In this study, the potential predictability of seasonal variations in extratropical storm activity is investigated using analysis of variance to provide quantitative and geographical observational evidence indicative of whether it may be possible to predict storm activity on the seasonal timescale. This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large-scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed. Seasonal potential predictability and its origins are investigated for the cold seasons (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM) during the 1979-2015 time period using daily mean sea level pressure, absolute pressure tendency, and 10-m wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis as proxies for extratropical storm activity. Results indicate potential predictability of seasonal variations in storm activity in areas strongly influenced by ETCs and with origins in the investigated teleconnections. For instance, the North Pacific storm track has considerable potential predictability and with notable origins in the SO and PDO.

Dust in the wind: long range transport of dust in the atmosphere and its implications for global public and ecosystem health

USGS Publications Warehouse

Griffin, Dale W.; Kellogg, Christina A.; Shinn, Eugene A.

2001-01-01

Movement of soil particles in atmospheres is a normal planetary process. Images of Martian dust devils (wind-spouts) and dust storms captured by NASA's Pathfinder have demonstrated the significant role that storm activity plays in creating the red atmospheric haze of Mars. On Earth, desert soils moving in the atmosphere are responsible for the orange hues in brilliant sunrises and sunsets. In severe dust storm events, millions of tons of soil may be moved across great expanses of land and ocean. An emerging scientific interest in the process of soil transport in the Earth's atmosphere is in the field of public and ecosystem health. This article will address the benefits and the potential hazards associated with exposure to particle fallout as clouds of desert dust traverse the globe.

Firefighter

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Pam

2011-01-01

The responsibilities of a firefighter extend far beyond simply responding to fire emergencies. At many departments, responding to medical calls or car accidents is the most frequent activity, and a routine shift might also entail dealing with hazardous materials, gas leaks, structural collapses, floods, ice storms, wild animals, or the myriad…

Insight into the Physical and Dynamical Processes that Control Rapid Increases in Total Flash Rate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; Schultz, Elise V.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

2015-01-01

Rapid increases in total lightning (also termed "lightning jumps") have been observed for many decades. Lightning jumps have been well correlated to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The main focus of lightning jump work has been on the development of lightning algorithms to be used in real-time assessment of storm intensity. However, in these studies it is typically assumed that the updraft "increases" without direct measurements of the vertical motion, or specification of which updraft characteristic actually increases (e.g., average speed, maximum speed, or convective updraft volume). Therefore, an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling rapid increases in total flash rate to increases in updraft speed and volume must be understood in order to ultimately relate lightning occurrence to severe storm metrics. Herein, we use polarimetric, multi-Doppler, and lightning mapping array measurements to provide physical context as to why rapid increases in total lightning are closely tied to severe and hazardous weather.

Risk Perception and the Psychology of Natural Hazard Preparedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, K. J.; Weber, E. U.

2014-12-01

In the preparedness phase of the disaster cycle, willingness to invest resources in prevention and mitigation doesn't depend only on quantitative judgments of the probability of a disaster. People also evaluate the risks of situations in qualitative ways. Psychological studies of risk perception have shown that risk attitudes toward everyday technologies and activities (e.g., electric power, air travel, smoking) can be mapped onto two orthogonal dimensions: how unknown the risks seem, and how dread or severe they feel. Previously, this psychometric approach to risk perception has focused mostly on man-made risks (e.g., Fischhoff et al. 1978, Slovic 1987). In this paper we examine how natural hazards fit into the established unknown/dread risk space. Hazards that are high on the unknown dimension of risk tend to be perceived as having effects that are unknown to science and to the exposed, uncontrollable, and new. Hazards that rank high on the dread/severity dimension are seen as immediate, catastrophic, highly dreaded on a gut level, new, and likely to be fatal. Perceived risk tends to be highest for hazards that are both high on the dread dimension and low on the unknown dimension. We find that weather-related hazards rank lowest on both dimensions: blizzards, heat waves, hailstorms, fog, and ice storms are all feel very known and not particularly dread. The exception for this group is hurricanes and tornadoes, which are viewed as more similar to geophysical hazards and mass movements: high on dread, though not particularly unknown. Two notable outliers are climate change and sea-level rise, which are both considered very unknown (higher than any other natural hazard save sinkholes), and not at all dread (less dread even than fog and dust storms). But when compared with perceptions of technological hazards, nearly every natural hazard ranks as more dread than any technology or activity, including nuclear power. Man-made hazards fall with technologies, rather than with natural hazards—climate change and sea-level rise are both only as dread as electric power and motor vehicles, yet feel as unknown as terrorism and GMO foods. We discuss the implications of these qualitative elements of hazard risk perception for the preparedness phase of the disaster lifecycle, and offer recommendations to practitioners and educators.

Evaluation of a Socio-Hydrologic Model for the Rebuilding of Biloxi, Mississippi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calhoun, J. L.; O'Donnell, F. C.; Burton, C. G.

2017-12-01

In August 2005, Hurricane Katrina ripped through the Gulf Coast of the United States causing billions in damage. The storm cost the City of Biloxi, Mississippi $355 million in infrastructure repair, which is being constructed with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Approximately 30% of the city's storm systems including storm drains, bridges and culverts are being replaced and updated utilizing FEMA Hazard Mitigation funding to lessen the impact of future natural disasters. The infrastructure is being upgraded from conveying a 4% annual chance storm event to a 1% annual chance storm event. An extensive socio-economic data set of the impacts of Hurricane Katrina along the Mississippi Gulf Coast was used to analyze recovery in the area. The recovery data set assessed the area directly after the storm in 2005 thru 2010 with an analysis of recovery five years after the storm. This study uses a dynamic socio-hydrologic model with modifications to relate the change in flow capacity of engineered structures and socio-economic processes. The results will be used to assess the hypothesis that raising flood protection increases the base flood elevation levels and therefore requires a higher level of flood protection. The increase in flood protect eases the fears of the community leading them to not require additional flood protection when developing in flood prone areas and strengthening the socio-hydrologic association. The results will also be evaluated to create a tool for the City of Biloxi to improve their resilience from future hurricanes and storm surge events.

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

Bel Marin Keys Unit V Expansion of the Hamilton Wetland Restoration Project. Volume 3. Responses to Comments, Final Supplemental Environmental Impact Report/Environmental Impact Statement

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-04-01

include a program for implementing new development and construction site storm water quality controls. The objective of this component is to ensure...impacts (see Storm Water Quality Control, below). The Regional Board has adopted U.S. EPA’s Clean Water Act Section 404(b)(1) "Guidelines for...other Waters of the State. Storm Water Quality Control Storm water is the major source of fresh water to creeks and waterways. Storm water quality is

An assessment of the potential toxicity of runoff from an urban roadscape during rain events.

PubMed

Waara, Sylvia; Färm, Carina

2008-05-01

The potential negative impact of urban storm water on aquatic freshwater ecosystems has been demonstrated in various studies with different types of biological methods. There are a number of factors that influence the amount and bioavailability of contaminants in storm water even if it is derived from an area with a fairly homogenous land use such as a roadscape where a variation in toxicity during rain events might be expected. There are only a few previous investigations on the toxicity of highway runoff and they have not explored these issues extensively. The main objective of this study is therefore to characterize the potential toxicity of highway runoff during several rain events before it enters a detention pond in Västerås, Sweden, using laboratory bioassays with test organisms representing various functional groups in an aquatic ecosystem. The results are to be used for developing a monitoring program, including biological methods. The storm water was sampled before the entrance to a detention pond, which receives run-off from a highway with approximately 20,000 vehicles a day. The drainage area, including the roadscape and vegetated areas, is 4.3 ha in size. Samples for toxicity tests were taken with an automatic sampler or manually during storm events. In total, the potential toxicity of 65 samples representing 15 different storm events was determined. The toxicity was assessed with 4 different test organisms; Vibrio fischeri using the Microtox comparison test, Daphnia magna using Daphtoxkit-F agna, Thamnocephalus platyurus using the ThamnotoxkitF and Lemna minor, duckweed using SS 028313. Of the 65 samples, 58 samples were tested with DaphniatoxkitF agna, 57 samples with the Microtox comparison test, 48 samples with ThamnotoxkitF and 20 samples with Lemna minor, duckweed. None of the storm water samples were toxic. No toxicity was detected with the Lemna minor test, but in 5 of the 23 samples tested in comparison to the control a growth stimulation of 22-46% was observed. This is in accordance with the chemical analysis of the storm water, which indicated rather large concentrations of tot-N and tot-P. In addition to the growth stimulation, morphological changes were observed in all the 5 samples from the winter event that was sampled. The lack of toxicity observed in our study might be due to a lower traffic intensity (20,000 vehicles/day) at the site and the trapping of pollutants in the vegetated areas of the roadscape, resulting in much smaller loads of pollutants in the storm water than in some previous studies. Ecotoxicological evaluations of storm water including run off from rain events from urban roadscape studies clearly reveal that toxicity may or may not be detected depending upon site, storm condition and the test organism chosen. However, storm water might not be as polluted as previously reported nor may the first flush be such a widespread phenomenon as we originally expected. In this study, there was also a good correlation between pollutant load measured and the lack of toxicity. The test organisms chosen in this study are commonly used in effluent control programs in Sweden and other countries, which makes it possible to compare the results with those from other effluents. In this study, only acute toxicity tests were used and further studies using chronic toxicity tests, assays for genotoxic compounds or in situ bioassays might reveal biological effects at this site. Furthermore, most of the samples were taken in spring, summer or fall and it is possible that winter conditions might alter the constituents in the storm water and, thus, the toxicity of the samples. Considering the complex nature of run off from urban roadscapes, it will be virtually impossible to evaluate properly the potential hazard of particular storm water and the efficiency of a particular treatment strategy from only physical and chemical characterizations of the effluent. Therefore, despite the lack of toxicity detected in this study, it is recommended that toxicity tests or other biological methods should be included in evaluations of the effects of runoff from roadscapes.

Landslides, Floods, and Marine Effects of the Storm of January 3-5, 1982, in the San Francisco Bay Region, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellen, Stephen D.; Wieczorek, Gerald F.

1988-01-01

A catastrophic rainstorm in central California on January 3-5,1982, dropped as much as half the mean annual precipitation within a period of about 32 hours, triggering landslides and floods throughout 10 counties in the vicinity of the San Francisco Bay. More than 18,000 of the slides induced by the storm transformed into debris flows that swept down hillslopes or drainages with little warning. Debris flows damaged at least 100 homes, killed 14 residents, and carried a 15th victim into a creek. Shortly after rainfall ceased, more than 459,000 m3 of earth and rock slid from a mountainside above the community of Love Creek in Santa Cruz County, burying 10 people in their homes. Throughout the bay region, thousands of people vacated homes in hazardous areas, entire communities were isolated as roads were blocked, public water systems were destroyed, and power and telephone services were disrupted. Altogether, the storm damaged 6,300 homes, 1,500 businesses, and tens of kilometers of roads, bridges, and communication lines. Preliminary rough estimates of total storm damage, compiled for emergency purposes within 2 weeks of the storm, exceeded $280 million. Carefully documented direct costs from landslides exceeded $66 million; total costs from landslides certainly were greater and probably constituted a much larger proportion of the total storm damage than suggested by these disparate figures. Landslides accounted for 25 of the 33 deaths attributed to the storm.

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

Environmental Assessment of 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Actions at Homestead Air Reserve Base, Florida

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

permit, there are no guidelines for storm water quality , therefore Homestead ARB established a program with the State of Florida to test and monitor... storm water quality . Heating and Cooling Systems. Because of the humid Florida climate, engineers are considering an installation-wide Utility... storm water quality , negligible effects on the storm water system would be expected as a result of the Proposed Action. Heating and Cooling

Comparison of slope instability screening tools following a large storm event and application to forest management and policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Whittaker, Kara A.; McShane, Dan

2012-04-01

The objective of this study was to assess and compare the ability of two slope instability screening tools developed by the Washington State Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) to assess landslide risks associated with forestry activities. HAZONE is based on a semi-quantitative method that incorporates the landslide frequency rate and landslide area rate for delivery of mapped landforms. SLPSTAB is a GIS-based model of inherent landform characteristics that utilizes slope geometry derived from DEMs and climatic data. Utilization of slope instability screening tools by geologists, land managers, and regulatory agencies can reduce the frequency and magnitude of landslides. Aquatic habitats are negatively impacted by elevated rates and magnitudes of landslides associated with forest management practices due to high sediment loads and alteration of stream channels and morphology. In 2007 a large storm with heavy rainfall impacted southwestern Washington State trigging over 2500 landslides. This storm event and accompanying landslides provides an opportunity to assess the slope stability screening tools developed by WDNR. Landslide density (up to 6.5 landslides per km2) from the storm was highest in the areas designated by the screening tools as high hazard areas, and both of the screening tools were equal in their ability to predict landslide locations. Landslides that initiated in low hazard areas may have resulted from a variety of site-specific factors that deviated from assumed model values, from the inadequate identification of potentially unstable landforms due to low resolution DEMs, or from the inadequate implementation of the state Forest Practices Rules. We suggest that slope instability screening tools can be better utilized by forest management planners and regulators to meet policy goals regarding minimizing landslide rates and impacts to sensitive aquatic species.

Spatial screening methods for evaluating environmental contaminant hazards and exposure vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, D. K.

2016-12-01

Human and biotic communities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and severe storms due to climate change. These events enhance the dispersion and concentration of natural and anthropogenic chemicals and pathogenic microorganisms, which could adversely impact the health and resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems in coming years. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed spatial screening methods to identify and map contaminant sources and potential exposure pathways for human and ecological receptors. These methods have been applied within the northeastern U.S. to document contaminants of emerging concern, highlight vulnerable communities, and prioritize locations for future sampling campaigns. Integration of this information provides a means to better assess the baseline status of a complex system and the significance of changes in contaminant hazards due to storm-induced (episodic) and sea-level rise (incremental) disturbances. This presentation will provide an overview of a decision support tool developed by the USGS to document contaminants in the environment relative to key receptor populations and historic storm vulnerabilities. The support tool is designed to accommodate a broad array of geologic, land-use, and climatic variables and utilizes public, nationally available data sources to define contaminant sources and storm vulnerabilities. By employing a flexible and adaptable strategy built upon publicly available data, the method can readily be applied to other site selection or landscape evaluation efforts. Examples will be presented including the Sediment-bound Contaminant Resiliency and Response pilot study (see http://toxics.usgs.gov/scorr/), and investigations of endocrine disruption in the Chesapeake Bay. Key limitations and future applications will be discussed in addition to ongoing method developments to accommodate non-coastal disaster scenarios and more refined contaminant definitions.

NATIONAL CONFERENCE ON URBAN STORM WATER: ENHANCING PROGRAMS AT THE LOCAL LEVEL - PROCEEDINGS CHICAGO, IL FEBRUARY 17-20, 2003

EPA Science Inventory

A wide array of effective storm water management and resource protection tools have been developed for urban environments, but their implementation continues to be hampered by a lack of technology transfer opportunities. At the national conference Urban Storm Water: Enhancing Pro...

Assessment of Debris Flow Potential Hazardous Zones Using Numerical Models in the Mountain Foothills of Santiago, Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Celis, C.; Sepulveda, S. A.; Castruccio, A.; Lara, M.

2017-12-01

Debris and mudflows are some of the main geological hazards in the mountain foothills of Central Chile. The risk of flows triggered in the basins of ravines that drain the Andean frontal range into the capital city, Santiago, increases with time due to accelerated urban expansion. Susceptibility assessments were made by several authors to detect the main active ravines in the area. Macul and San Ramon ravines have a high to medium debris flow susceptibility, whereas Lo Cañas, Apoquindo and Las Vizcachas ravines have a medium to low debris flow susceptibility. This study emphasizes in delimiting the potential hazardous zones using the numerical simulation program RAMMS-Debris Flows with the Voellmy model approach, and the debris-flow model LAHARZ. This is carried out by back-calculating the frictional parameters in the depositional zone with a known event as the debris and mudflows in Macul and San Ramon ravines, on May 3rd, 1993, for the RAMMS approach. In the same scenario, we calibrate the coefficients to match conditions of the mountain foothills of Santiago for the LAHARZ model. We use the information obtained for every main ravine in the study area, mainly for the similarity in slopes and material transported. Simulations were made for the worst-case scenario, caused by the combination of intense rainfall storms, a high 0°C isotherm level and material availability in the basins where the flows are triggered. The results show that the runout distances are well simulated, therefore a debris-flow hazard map could be developed with these models. Correlation issues concerning the run-up, deposit thickness and transversal areas are reported. Hence, the models do not represent entirely the complexity of the phenomenon, but they are a reliable approximation for preliminary hazard maps.

40 CFR 122.37 - Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of this chapter change in the future? 122.37 Section 122.37 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL...

40 CFR 122.37 - Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Will the small MS4 storm water program regulations at §§ 122.32 through 122.36 and § 123.35 of this chapter change in the future? 122.37 Section 122.37 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL...

Using Interdisciplinary Research Methods to Revise and Strengthen the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, C.; Gregg, C. E.; Ritchie, L.; Stephen, M.; Farnham, C.; Fraser, S. A.; Gill, D.; Horan, J.; Houghton, B. F.; Johnson, V.; Johnston, D.

2013-12-01

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) partnered with the National Weather Service (NWS) in early 2000 to create the TsunamiReadyTM Community Recognition program. TsunamiReadyTM, modeled after the older NWS StormReadyTM program, is designed to help cities, towns, counties, universities and other large sites in coastal areas reduce the potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences. To achieve TsunamiReadyTM recognition, communities must meet certain criteria aimed at better preparing a community for tsunami, including specific actions within the following categories: communications and coordination, tsunami warning reception, local warning dissemination, community preparedness, and administration. Using multidisciplinary research methods and strategies from Public Health; Psychology; Political, Social and Physical Sciences and Evaluation, our research team is working directly with a purposive sample of community stakeholders in collaboration and feedback focus group sessions. Invitation to participate is based on a variety of factors including but not limited to an individual's role as a formal or informal community leader (e.g., in business, government, civic organizations), or their organization or agency affiliation to emergency management and response. Community organizing and qualitative research methods are being used to elicit discussion regarding TsunamiReadyTM requirements and the division of requirements based on some aspect of tsunami hazard, vulnerability and risk, such as proximity to active or passive plate margins or subduction zone generated tsunamis versus earthquake-landslide generated tsunamis . The primary aim of this research is to use social science to revise and refine the NWS TsunamiReadyTM Guidelines in an effort to better prepare communities to reduce risk to tsunamis.

44 CFR 59.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... an alluvial fan or similar landform which originates at the apex and is characterized by high... administer laws, ordinances and regulations for that community. Coastal high hazard area means an area of... coast and any other area subject to high velocity wave action from storms or seismic sources. Community...

44 CFR 59.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... an alluvial fan or similar landform which originates at the apex and is characterized by high... administer laws, ordinances and regulations for that community. Coastal high hazard area means an area of... coast and any other area subject to high velocity wave action from storms or seismic sources. Community...

44 CFR 59.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... an alluvial fan or similar landform which originates at the apex and is characterized by high... administer laws, ordinances and regulations for that community. Coastal high hazard area means an area of... coast and any other area subject to high velocity wave action from storms or seismic sources. Community...

44 CFR 59.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... an alluvial fan or similar landform which originates at the apex and is characterized by high... administer laws, ordinances and regulations for that community. Coastal high hazard area means an area of... coast and any other area subject to high velocity wave action from storms or seismic sources. Community...

44 CFR 59.1 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... an alluvial fan or similar landform which originates at the apex and is characterized by high... administer laws, ordinances and regulations for that community. Coastal high hazard area means an area of... coast and any other area subject to high velocity wave action from storms or seismic sources. Community...

USCG VHF Voice

Science.gov Websites

! Boating Safety Beach Hazards Rip Currents Hypothermia Hurricanes Thunderstorms Lightning Coastal Flooding frequency) The U.S. Coast Guard broadcasts coastal forecasts and storm Warnings of interest to the mariner coverage of coastal U.S., Great Lakes, Hawaii, and populated Alaska coastline. Typical coverage is 20

24 CFR 55.2 - Terminology.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... or inoperative during flood and storm events (e.g., data storage centers, generating plants...” (§ 55.2(b)(5)). When FEMA provides interim flood hazard data, such as Advisory Base Flood Elevations... data may be used as “best available information” in accordance with Executive Order 11988. However, a...

Terminal Area Simulation System User's Guide - Version 10.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Switzer, George F.; Proctor, Fred H.

2014-01-01

The Terminal Area Simulation System (TASS) is a three-dimensional, time-dependent, large eddy simulation model that has been developed for studies of wake vortex and weather hazards to aviation, along with other atmospheric turbulence, and cloud-scale weather phenomenology. This document describes the source code for TASS version 10.0 and provides users with needed documentation to run the model. The source code is programed in Fortran language and is formulated to take advantage of vector and efficient multi-processor scaling for execution on massively-parallel supercomputer clusters. The code contains different initialization modules allowing the study of aircraft wake vortex interaction with the atmosphere and ground, atmospheric turbulence, atmospheric boundary layers, precipitating convective clouds, hail storms, gust fronts, microburst windshear, supercell and mesoscale convective systems, tornadic storms, and ring vortices. The model is able to operate in either two- or three-dimensions with equations numerically formulated on a Cartesian grid. The primary output from the TASS is time-dependent domain fields generated by the prognostic equations and diagnosed variables. This document will enable a user to understand the general logic of TASS, and will show how to configure and initialize the model domain. Also described are the formats of the input and output files, as well as the parameters that control the input and output.

Coupling of the Matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields of the Sun with Jupiter and its Moons Together in Nearest Portion of Jupiter's Orbit to the Sun as the Main Cause of the Peak of Approximately 11 Yearly Solar Cycles and Hazards from Solar Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholibeigian, Kazem; Gholibeigian, Hassan

2016-04-01

On March 13, 1989 the entire province of Quebec Blackout by solar storm during solar cycle 22. The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington event, was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm during solar cycle 10. The solar storm of 2012 during solar cycle 24 was of similar magnitude, but it passed Earth's orbit without striking the plane. All of these solar storms occurred in the peak of 11 yearly solar cycles. In this way, the White House in its project which is focusing on hazards from solar system, in a new strategy and action plan to increase protection from damaging solar emissions, should focus on coupling of the matched Gravity and Electromagnetic Fields)GEFs) of the Sun with Jupiter and its moons together. On the other hand, in solar system, the Jupiter's gravity has largest effect to the Sun's core and its dislocation, because the gravity force between the Jupiter and the Sun is 11.834 times, In addition overlapping of the solar cycles with the Jupiter's orbit period is 11.856 years. These observable factors lead us to the effect of the Jupiter and Sun gravity fields coupling as the main cause of the approximately 11 years duration for solar cycles. Its peak in each cycle is when the Jupiter is in nearest portion to the Sun in its orbit. In this way, the other planets in their coupling with Sun help to the variations and strengthening solar cycles. [Gholibeigian, 7/24/2015http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014EGU]. In other words, the both matched GEFs are generating by the large scale forced convection system inside the stars and planets [Gholibeigian et. al, AGU Fall Meeting 2015]. These two fields are couple and strengthening each other. The Jupiter with its 67 moons generate the largest coupled and matched GEFs in its core and consequently strongest effect on the Sun's core. Generation and coupling of the Jupiter's GEFs with its moons like Europa, Io and Ganymede make this planet of thousands of times brighter and many times bigger than Earth as the strongest variable GEFs in solar system after the Sun. For example, Ganymede is the largest moon of Jupiter and in the Solar System. Completing an orbit in roughly seven days. It means that it generates 52 GEFs oscillations (loading, unloading) per year in solar cycle while it is rotating around the Jupiter. New observations of the planet's extreme ultraviolet emissions show that bright explosions of Jupiter's aurora by the planet-moon interaction, not by solar activity [Tomoki Kimura, JAEA]. Coupling of Jupiter's GEFs and its moons with the Sun generate very strong GEFs and approximately 11 yearly solar cycles. The peaks of each cycle is when the Jupiter passes from the nearest portion of its orbit to the Sun. which some of its peaks generate gigantic solar storms and hazards to the Earth. The Earth passes from between of Sun and Jupiter eleven times in each solar cycle and may be under shooting of storms from the both side specially during 2-3 years in cycle's peak.

Remote rainfall sensing for landslide hazard analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wieczorek, Gerald F.; McWreath, Harry; Davenport, Clay

2001-01-01

Methods of assessing landslide hazards and providing warnings are becoming more advanced as remote sensing of rainfall provides more detailed temporal and spatial data on rainfall distribution. Two recent landslide disasters are examined noting the potential for using remotely sensed rainfall data for landslide hazard analysis. For the June 27, 1995, storm in Madison County, Virginia, USA, National Weather Service WSR-88D Doppler radar provided rainfall estimates based on a relation between cloud reflectivity and moisture content on a 1 sq. km. resolution every 6 minutes. Ground-based measurements of rainfall intensity and precipitation total, in addition to landslide timing and distribution, were compared with the radar-derived rainfall data. For the December 14-16, 1999, storm in Vargas State, Venezuela, infrared sensing from the GOES-8 satellite of cloud top temperatures provided the basis for NOAA/NESDIS rainfall estimates on a 16 sq. km. resolution every 30 minutes. These rainfall estimates were also compared with ground-based measurements of rainfall and landslide distribution. In both examples, the remotely sensed data either overestimated or underestimated ground-based values by up to a factor of 2. The factors that influenced the accuracy of rainfall data include spatial registration and map projection, as well as prevailing wind direction, cloud orientation, and topography.

Knowledge to Action - Understanding Natural Hazards-Induced Power Outage Scenarios for Actionable Disaster Responses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kar, B.; Robinson, C.; Koch, D. B.; Omitaomu, O.

2017-12-01

The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 identified the following four priorities to prevent and reduce disaster risks: i) understanding disaster risk; ii) strengthening governance to manage disaster risk; iii) investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience and; iv) enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response, and to "Build Back Better" in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. While forecasting and decision making tools are in place to predict and understand future impacts of natural hazards, the knowledge to action approach that currently exists fails to provide updated information needed by decision makers to undertake response and recovery efforts following a hazard event. For instance, during a tropical storm event advisories are released every two to three hours, but manual analysis of geospatial data to determine potential impacts of the event tends to be time-consuming and a post-event process. Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory have developed a Spatial Decision Support System that enables real-time analysis of storm impact based on updated advisory. A prototype of the tool that focuses on determining projected power outage areas and projected duration of outages demonstrates the feasibility of integrating science with decision making for emergency management personnel to act in real time to protect communities and reduce risk.

Particle Tracing Modeling with SHIELDS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodroffe, J. R.; Brito, T. V.; Jordanova, V. K.

2017-12-01

The near-Earth inner magnetosphere, where most of the nation's civilian and military space assets operate, is an extremely hazardous region of the space environment which poses major risks to our space infrastructure. Failure of satellite subsystems or even total failure of a spacecraft can arise for a variety of reasons, some of which are related to the space environment: space weather events like single-event-upsets and deep dielectric charging caused by high energy particles, or surface charging caused by low to medium energy particles; other space hazards are collisions with natural or man-made space debris, or intentional hostile acts. A recently funded project through the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program aims at developing a new capability to understand, model, and predict Space Hazards Induced near Earth by Large Dynamic Storms, the SHIELDS framework. The project goals are to understand the dynamics of the surface charging environment (SCE), the hot (keV) electrons on both macro- and microscale. These challenging problems are addressed using a team of world-class experts and state-of-the-art physics-based models and computational facilities. We present first results of a coupled BATS-R-US/RAM-SCB/Particle Tracing Model to evaluate particle fluxes in the inner magnetosphere. We demonstrate that this setup is capable of capturing the earthward particle acceleration process resulting from dipolarization events in the tail region of the magnetosphere.

Potential Seasonal Predictability for Winter Storms over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2017-04-01

Reliable seasonal forecasts of strong extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms would have great social and economical benefits, as these events are the most costly natural hazards over Europe. In a previous study we have shown good agreement of spatial climatological distributions of extra-tropical cyclones and wind storms in state-of-the-art multi-member seasonal prediction systems with reanalysis. We also found significant seasonal prediction skill of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms affecting numerous European countries. We continue this research by investigating the mechanisms and precursor conditions (primarily over the North Atlantic) on a seasonal time scale leading to enhanced extra-tropical cyclone activity and winter storm frequency over Europe. Our results regarding mechanisms show that an increased surface temperature gradient at the western edge of the North Atlantic can be related to enhanced winter storm frequency further downstream causing for example a greater number of storms over the British Isles, as observed in winter 2013-14.The so-called "Horseshoe Index", a SST tripole anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic in the summer months can also cause a higher number of winter storms over Europe in the subsequent winter. We will show results of AMIP-type sensitivity experiments using an AGCM (ECHAM5), supporting this hypothesis. Finally we will analyse whether existing seasonal forecast systems are able to capture these identified mechanisms and precursor conditions affecting the models' seasonal prediction skill.

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

Multi Hazard Assessment: The Azores Archipelagos (PT) case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aifantopoulou, Dorothea; Boni, Giorgio; Cenci, Luca; Kaskara, Maria; Kontoes, Haris; Papoutsis, Ioannis; Paralikidis, Sideris; Psichogyiou, Christina; Solomos, Stavros; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Tsouni, Alexia; Xerekakis, Themos

2016-04-01

The COPERNICUS EMS Risk & Recovery Mapping (RRM) activity offers services to support efficient design and implementation of mitigation measures and recovery planning based on EO data exploitation. The Azores Archipelagos case was realized in the context of the FWC 259811 Copernicus EMS RRM, and provides potential impact information for a number of natural disasters. The analysis identified population and assets at risk (infrastructures and environment). The risk assessment was based on hazard and vulnerability of structural elements, road network characteristics, etc. Integration of different hazards and risks was accounted in establishing the necessary first response/ first aid infrastructure. EO data (Pleiades and WV-2), were used to establish a detailed background information, common for the assessment of the whole of the risks. A qualitative Flood hazard level was established, through a "Flood Susceptibility Index" that accounts for upstream drainage area and local slope along the drainage network (Manfreda et al. 2014). Indicators, representing different vulnerability typologies, were accounted for. The risk was established through intersecting hazard and vulnerability (risk- specific lookup table). Probabilistic seismic hazards maps (PGA) were obtained by applying the Cornell (1968) methodology as implemented in CRISIS2007 (Ordaz et al. 2007). The approach relied on the identification of potential sources, the assessment of earthquake recurrence and magnitude distribution, the selection of ground motion model, and the mathematical model to calculate seismic hazard. Lava eruption areas and a volcanic activity related coefficient were established through available historical data. Lava flow paths and their convergence were estimated through applying a cellular, automata based, Lava Flow Hazard numerical model (Gestur Leó Gislason, 2013). The Landslide Hazard Index of NGI (Norwegian Geotechnical Institute) for heavy rainfall (100 year extreme monthly rainfall) and earthquake (475 years return period) was used. Topography, lithology, soil moisture and LU/LC were also accounted for. Soil erosion risk was assessed through the empirical model RUSLE (Renard et al. 1991b). Rainfall erosivity, topography and vegetation cover are the main parameters which were used for predicting the proneness to soil loss. Expected, maximum tsunami wave heights were estimated for a specific earthquake scenario at designated forecast points along the coasts. Deformation at the source was calculated by utilizing the Okada code (Okada, 1985). Tsunami waves' generation and propagation is based on the SWAN model (JRC/IPSC modification). To estimate the wave height (forecast points) the Green's Law function was used (JRC Tsunami Analysis Tool). Storm tracks' historical data indicate a return period of 17 /41 years for H1 /H2 hurricane categories respectively. NOAA WAVEWATCH III model hindcast reanalysis was used to estimate the maximum significant wave height (wind and swell) along the coastline during two major storms. The associated storm-surge risk assessment accounted also for the coastline morphology. Seven empirical (independent) indicators were used to express the erosion susceptibility of the coasts. Each indicator is evaluated according to a semi?quantitative score that represents low, medium and high level of erosion risk or impact. The estimation of the coastal erosion hazard was derived through aggregating the indicators in a grid scale.

The National Shipbuilding Research Program. Strategies and Demonstrations for the Reduction of Government Regulations Related to Commercial Shipbuilding

DTIC Science & Technology

1996-09-01

inspecting storm water quality associated with storm water runoff or snowmelt: January through March; April through June: July through September and October...beyond those described in Part V.B. of this permit. 5. Monitoring and Reporting . Requirements Storm Water Quality . Facilities shall perform and document...event. (I) Examinations shall be conducted in each of the following periods for the purposes of visually inspecting storm water quality associated

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

PubMed Central

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence. PMID:24825660

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation.

PubMed

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W; Storlazzi, Curt D; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C; Airoldi, Laura

2014-05-13

The world's coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

Meteorological aspects associated with dust storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaskaoutis, D. G.; Rashki, A.; Houssos, E. E.; Mofidi, A.; Goto, D.; Bartzokas, A.; Francois, P.; Legrand, M.

2015-07-01

Dust storms are considered natural hazards that seriously affect atmospheric conditions, ecosystems and human health. A key requirement for investigating the dust life cycle is the analysis of the meteorological (synoptic and dynamic) processes that control dust emission, uplift and transport. The present work focuses on examining the synoptic and dynamic meteorological conditions associated with dust-storms in the Sistan region, southeastern Iran during the summer season (June-September) of the years 2001-2012. The dust-storm days (total number of 356) are related to visibility records below 1 km at Zabol meteorological station, located near to the dust source. RegCM4 model simulations indicate that the intense northern Levar wind, the high surface heating and the valley-like characteristics of the region strongly affect the meteorological dynamics and the formation of a low-level jet that are strongly linked with dust exposures. The intra-annual evolution of the dust storms does not seem to be significantly associated with El-Nino Southern Oscillation, despite the fact that most of the dust-storms are related to positive values of Oceanic Nino Index. National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis suggests that the dust storms are associated with low sea-level pressure conditions over the whole south Asia, while at 700 hPa level a trough of low geopotential heights over India along with a ridge over Arabia and central Iran is the common scenario. A significant finding is that the dust storms over Sistan are found to be associated with a pronounced increase of the anticyclone over the Caspian Sea, enhancing the west-to-east pressure gradient and, therefore, the blowing of Levar. Infrared Difference Dust Index values highlight the intensity of the Sistan dust storms, while the SPRINTARS model simulates the dust loading and concentration reasonably well, since the dust storms are usually associated with peaks in model simulations.

Storm Warning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Tammy; Kier, Meredith; Phillips, Kelsey

2016-01-01

To show students how engineering design practices reduce the impacts of a natural hazard, the authors--two science educators and an elementary teacher--taught a three-day 5E lesson that focused on hurricanes. They specifically focused on hurricanes because their students are located near a coastal area and are familiar with the effects of this…

If I Only Knew Then....

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Young, Terrence E., Jr.

2006-01-01

History teaches that a lack of disaster awareness and preparation are common threads among all major weather-related disasters. Weather hazards come in many forms: storm surge, high winds, blizzards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, flooding, or a combination of these. It is important for both family and work colleagues to have an action plan…

Privacy Policy of NOAA's National Weather Service - NOAA's National Weather

Science.gov Websites

Safety Weather Radio Hazard Assmt... StormReady / TsunamiReady Skywarn(tm) Education/Outreach Information , and National Weather Service information collection practices. This Privacy Policy Statement applies only to National Weather Service web sites. Some organizations within NOAA may have other information

78 FR 63966 - Notice of Change to the Nation's Tidal Datums With the Adoption of a Modified Procedure for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-25

... boundary determinations, coastal engineering, storm warnings and hazard mitigation, emergency management... shoreline depiction may need to be updated on the next regularly scheduled chart edition. Although... Web site ( http://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov ) or contact the Center for Operational Oceanographic...

Coastal storm monitoring in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wicklein, Shaun M.; Bennett, Mark

2014-01-01

Coastal communities in Virginia are prone to flooding, particularly during hurricanes, nor’easters, and other coastal low-pressure systems. These weather systems affect public safety, personal and public property, and valuable infrastructure, such as transportation, water and sewer, and electric-supply networks. Local emergency managers, utility operators, and the public are tasked with making difficult decisions regarding evacuations, road closures, and post-storm recovery efforts as a result of coastal flooding. In coastal Virginia these decisions often are made on the basis of anecdotal knowledge from past events or predictions based on data from monitoring sites located far away from the affected area that may not reflect local conditions. Preventing flood hazards, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, from becoming human disasters requires an understanding of the relative risks that flooding poses to specific communities. The risk to life and property can be very high if decisions about evacuations and road closures are made too late or not at all.

Baseline coastal oblique aerial photographs collected from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Breton Island, Louisiana, June 9, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Karen L. M.

2017-04-03

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project, conducts baseline and storm-response photography missions to document and understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms. On June 9, 2011, the USGS conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey from Dauphin Island, Alabama, to Breton Island, Louisiana, aboard a Beechcraft BE90 King Air (aircraft) at an altitude of 500 feet (ft) (152 meters (m)) and approximately 1,200 ft (366 m) offshore. This mission was conducted to collect baseline data for assessing incremental changes in the beach and nearshore area and can be used to assess future coastal change.The photographs in this report are Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) images. These photographs document the state of the barrier islands and other coastal features at the time of the survey.

The NASA Thunderstorm Observations and Research (ThOR) Mission: Lightning Mapping from Space to Improve the Short-term Forecasting of Severe Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Christian, H. J.; Boccippio, D. J.; Koshak, W. J.; Cecil, D. J.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The ThOR mission uses a lightning mapping sensor in geostationary Earth orbit to provide continuous observations of thunderstorm activity over the Americas and nearby oceans. The link between lightning activity and cloud updrafts is the basis for total lightning observations indicating the evolving convective intensification and decay of storms. ThOR offers a national operational demonstration of the utility of real-time total lightning mapping for earlier and more reliable identification of potentially severe and hazardous storms. Regional pilot projects have already demonstrated that the dominance in-cloud lightning and increasing in-cloud lash rates are known to precede severe weather at the surface by tens of minutes. ThOR is currently planned for launch in 2005 on a commercial or research satellite. Real-time data will be provided to selected NWS Weather Forecast Offices and National Centers (EMC/AWC/SPC) for evaluation.

National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Permit Application Requirement for Storm Water Discharges

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-05-01

schedule for construction, upgrading or operation of wastewater treatment facilities or any other environmental programs, which may effect storm water quality of...if the storm water quality may be similar. c. Two sets of samples are required to be collected: (1) A grab during the first 30 minutes of the rainfall

Rainfall, Discharge, and Water-Quality Data During Stormwater Monitoring, July 1, 2007, to June 30, 2008; Halawa Stream Drainage Basin and the H-1 Storm Drain, Oahu, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Presley, Todd K.; Jamison, Marcael T.J.; Young, Stacie T.M.

2008-01-01

Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. The program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream and to assess the effects from the H-1 storm drain on Manoa Stream. For this program, rainfall data were collected at three stations, continuous discharge data at four stations, and water-quality data at six stations, which include the four continuous discharge stations. This report summarizes rainfall, discharge, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2007, and June 30, 2008. A total of 16 environmental samples were collected over two storms during July 1, 2007, to June 30, 2008, within the Halawa Stream drainage area. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, and zinc). Additionally, grab samples were analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Some samples were analyzed for only a partial list of these analytes because an insufficient volume of sample was collected by the automatic samplers. Three additional quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected concurrently with the storm samples. A total of 16 environmental samples were collected over four storms during July 1, 2007, to June 30, 2008 at the H-1 Storm Drain. All samples at this site were collected using an automatic sampler. Samples generally were analyzed for total suspended solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, and selected trace metals (cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc), although some samples were analyzed for only a partial list of these analytes. During the storm of January 29, 2008, 10 discrete samples were collected. Varying constituent concentrations were detected for the samples collected at different times during this storm event. Two quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected concurrently with the storm samples. Three additional quality-assurance/quality-control samples were collected during routine sampler maintenance to check the effectiveness of equipment-cleaning procedures.

Numerical Simulations of Precipitation Processes, Microphysics, and Microwave Radiative Properties of flood Producing Storms in Mediterranean & Adriatic Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A comprehensive understanding of the meteorological and microphysical nature of Mediterranean storms requires a combination of in situ data analysis, radar data analysis, and satellite data analysis, effectively integrated with numerical modeling studies at various scales. An important aspect of understanding microphysical controls of severe storms, is first understanding the meteorological controls under which a storm has evolved, and then using that information to help characterize the dominant microphysical processes. For hazardous Mediterranean storms, highlighted by the October 5-6, 1998 Friuli flood event in northern Italy, a comprehensive microphysical interpretation requires an understanding of the multiple phases of storm evolution. This involves intense convective development, Sratiform decay, orographic lifting, and sloped frontal lifting processes, as well as the associated vertical motions and thermodynamical instabilities governing physical processes that effect details of the size distributions and fall rates of the various types of hydrometeors found within the storm environment. This talk overviews the microphysical elements of a severe Mediterranean storm in such a context, investigated with the aid of TRMM satellite and other remote sensing measurements, but guided by a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model simulation of the Friuli flood event. The data analysis for this paper was conducted by my research groups at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center in Huntsville, AL and Florida State University in Tallahassee, and in collaboration with Dr. Alberto Mugnai's research group at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics in Rome. The numerical modeling was conducted by Professor Oreg Tripoli and Ms. Giulia Panegrossi at the University of Wisconsin in Madison, using Professor Tripoli's nonhydrostatic modeling system (NMS). This is a scalable, fully nested mesoscale model capable of resolving nonhydrostatic circulations from regional scale down to cloud scale and below.

Understanding Extreme Precipitation Behaviour in British Columbia's Lower Mainland Using Historical and Proxy Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spry, Christina

In British Columbia, Pineapple Express storms can lead to flooding, slope failures and negative impacts to water quality. Mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events in a changing climate requires an understanding of how local climate responds to regional-toglobal climate forcing patterns. In this study, I use historical and proxy data to identify the distinguishing characteristics of Pineapple Express storms and to develop a tree ring oxygen isotope record (1960--1995) of local climate conditions in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia. I found that high magnitude Pineapple Express storms have significantly higher precipitation and streamflow than other storms types, which result in relatively high contributions of Pineapple Express storms to the annual water budget. As well, Pineapple Express precipitation is characterized by an enriched delta18O isotopic signature when compared to precipitation originating from the North Pacific Ocean. However, differences in source water do not appear to be driving the variability in tree ring delta18O ratios. Instead, tree ring isotopic values exhibit a regional climate pattern that is strongly driven by latitudinal temperature gradients and the Rayleigh distillation effect. Therefore, future warmer conditions may decrease the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles, which can be recorded in the tree ring isotope record. The results also suggest that warmer temperatures due to climate change could result in more active Pineapple Express storm seasons, with multiple PE storms happening over a short period of time. Concurrent storms significantly increase the risk to society because the resulting antecedent saturated soil conditions can trigger precipitationinduced natural hazards. Keywords: extreme weather; stable isotopes; Pineapple Express; British Columbia; climate change; tree rings.

Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bacopoulos, Peter

2017-10-01

An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

Multidsciplinary Approaches to Coastal Adaptation - Aplying Machine Learning Techniques to assess coastal risk in Latin America and The Caribbean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calil, J.

2016-12-01

The global population, currently at 7.3 billion, is increasing by nearly 230,000 people every day. As the world's population grows to an estimated 11.2 billion by 2100, the number of people living in low elevation areas, exposed to coastal hazards, is continuing to increase. In 2013, 22 million people were displaced by extreme weather events, with 37 events displacing at least 100,000 people each. Losses from natural disasters and disaster risk are determined by a complex interaction between physical hazards and the vulnerability of a society or social-ecological system, and its exposure to such hazards. Impacts from coastal hazards depend on the number of people, value of assets, and presence of critical resources in harm's way. Moreover, coastal risks are amplified by challenging socioeconomic dynamics, including ill-advised urban development, income inequality, and poverty level. Our results demonstrate that in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), more than half a million people live in areas where coastal hazards, exposure (of people, assets and ecosystems), and poverty converge, creating the ideal conditions for a perfect storm. In order to identify the population at greatest risk to coastal hazards in LAC, and in response to a growing demand for multidisciplinary coastal adaptation approaches, this study employs a combination of machine learning clustering techniques (K-Means and Self Organizing Maps), and a spatial index, to assess coastal risks on a comparative scale. Data for more than 13,000 coastal locations in LAC were collected and allocated into three categories: (1) Coastal Hazards (including storm surge, wave energy and El Niño); (2) Geographic Exposure (including population, agriculture, and ecosystems); and (3) Vulnerability (including income inequality, infant mortality rate and malnutrition). This study identified hotspots of coastal vulnerability, the key drivers of coastal risk at each geographic location. Our results provide important insights into potential adaptation alternatives that could reduce the impacts of future coastal hazards. Effective adaptation options must not only focus on developing coastal defenses, but also on improving practices and policies related to urban development, agriculture, and conservation, as well as ameliorate socioeconomic conditions.

Modelling the effect of severe storms in coastal pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grau, A.; Bolea, Y.; Guerra, E.

2009-09-01

Modelling and simulation of real events can be very useful to prevent environmental disasters, but these disasters can affect the health and life of human beings; then such tools become definitively necessary for governmental authorities to avoid population risk. In this wok we present a mathematical model that combines the effect of Mediterranean storms together with the effect of wastewater emissary dissolutions at the sea. The emissary model corresponds to a Catalan wastewater plant, the Besos plant in Barcelona. This plant throws the wastewater to the Mediterranean Sea with a 3-km pipe emissary, after a bacteriologically polluted secondary treatment. This polluted water is dissoluted in the salty water, provoking the death of all bacteria agents before they reach the coast. But in difficult conditions under violent storms, with strong East winds, the bacteriological polluted dissolution reaches the shore before the bacteria die and, therefore, a severe coastal pollution is produced. Its consequence can incur in a public health problem and the different governmental agencies activate great alarms to avoid population hazard. Storms modelling permits to evaluate the risk of coastal pollution predicting the wastewater dissolution path and velocity. Several simulations are presented under different storm conditions, making this tool very useful for the environmental protection agencies in the Catalan government.

From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

2014-05-01

The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

On the Log-Normality of Historical Magnetic-Storm Intensity Statistics: Implications for Extreme-Event Probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, J. J.; Rigler, E. J.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Riley, P.

2015-12-01

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic-storm-maximum intensities are the realization of a log-normal stochastic process. Weighted least-squares and maximum-likelihood methods are used to fit log-normal functions to -Dst storm-time maxima for years 1957-2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power-law function. In general, the maximum-likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least-squares. From extrapolation of maximum-likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, -Dst > 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100-yr magnetic storm is identified as having a -Dst > 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT. This work is partially motivated by United States National Science and Technology Council and Committee on Space Research and International Living with a Star priorities and strategic plans for the assessment and mitigation of space-weather hazards.

Challenge theme 6: Natural hazard risks in the Borderlands: Chapter 8 in United States-Mexican Borderlands: Facing tomorrow's challenges through USGS science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Page, William R.; Parcher, Jean W.; Stefanov, Jim

2013-01-01

Natural hazards such as earthquakes, landslides and debris flows, wildfires, hurricanes, and intense storm-induced flash floods threaten communities to varying degrees all along the United States–Mexican border. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collaborates with Federal, State, and local agencies to minimize the effects of natural hazards by providing timely, unbiased science information to emergency response officials, resource managers, and the public to help reduce property damage, injury, and loss of life. The USGS often mobilizes response efforts during and after a natural hazard event to provide technical and scientific counsel on recovery and response, and it has a long history of deploying emergency response teams to major disasters in both domestic and international locations. This chapter describes the challenges of natural hazards in the United States–Mexican border region and the capabilities of the USGS in the fields of hazard research, monitoring, and assessment, as well as preventative mitigation and post-disaster response.

Modelling multi-hazard hurricane damages on an urbanized coast with a Bayesian Network approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Verseveld, H.C.W.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Jäger, W.S.; den Heijer, C.

2015-01-01

Hurricane flood impacts to residential buildings in coastal zones are caused by a number of hazards, such as inundation, overflow currents, erosion, and wave attack. However, traditional hurricane damage models typically make use of stage-damage functions, where the stage is related to flooding depth only. Moreover, these models are deterministic and do not consider the large amount of uncertainty associated with both the processes themselves and with the predictions. This uncertainty becomes increasingly important when multiple hazards (flooding, wave attack, erosion, etc.) are considered simultaneously. This paper focusses on establishing relationships between observed damage and multiple hazard indicators in order to make better probabilistic predictions. The concept consists of (1) determining Local Hazard Indicators (LHIs) from a hindcasted storm with use of a nearshore morphodynamic model, XBeach, and (2) coupling these LHIs and building characteristics to the observed damages. We chose a Bayesian Network approach in order to make this coupling and used the LHIs ‘Inundation depth’, ‘Flow velocity’, ‘Wave attack’, and ‘Scour depth’ to represent flooding, current, wave impacts, and erosion related hazards.The coupled hazard model was tested against four thousand damage observations from a case site at the Rockaway Peninsula, NY, that was impacted by Hurricane Sandy in late October, 2012. The model was able to accurately distinguish ‘Minor damage’ from all other outcomes 95% of the time and could distinguish areas that were affected by the storm, but not severely damaged, 68% of the time. For the most heavily damaged buildings (‘Major Damage’ and ‘Destroyed’), projections of the expected damage underestimated the observed damage. The model demonstrated that including multiple hazards doubled the prediction skill, with Log-Likelihood Ratio test (a measure of improved accuracy and reduction in uncertainty) scores between 0.02 and 0.17 when only one hazard is considered and a score of 0.37 when multiple hazards are considered simultaneously. The LHIs with the most predictive skill were ‘Inundation depth’ and ‘Wave attack’. The Bayesian Network approach has several advantages over the market-standard stage-damage functions: the predictive capacity of multiple indicators can be combined; probabilistic predictions can be obtained, which include uncertainty; and quantitative as well as descriptive information can be used simultaneously.

Trace Metals in Urban Stormwater Runoff and their Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Hall, K.; Li, L. Y.; Schreier, H.

2009-04-01

In past decades, due to the rapid urbanization, land development has replaced forests, fields and meadows with impervious surfaces such as roofs, parking lots and roads, significantly affecting watershed quality and having an impact on aquatic systems. In this study, non-point source pollution from a diesel bus loop was assessed for the extent of trace metal contamination of Cu, Mn, Fe, and Zn in the storm water runoff. The study was carried out at the University of British Columbia (UBC) in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) of British Columbia, Canada. Fifteen storm events were monitored at 3 sites from the diesel bus loop to determine spatial and temporal variations of dissolved and total metal concentrations in the storm water runoff. The dissolved metal concentrations were compared with the provincial government discharge criteria and the bus loop storm water quality was also compared with previous studies conducted across the GVRD urban area. To prevent storm water with hazardous levels of contaminants from being discharged into the urban drainage system, a storm water catch basin filter was installed and evaluated for its efficiency of contaminants removal. The perlite filter media adsorption capacities for the trace metals, oil and grease were studied for better maintenance of the catch basin filter. Dissolved copper exceeded the discharge criteria limit in 2 out of 15 cases, whereas dissolved zinc exceeded the criteria in 4 out of 15 cases, and dissolved manganese was below the criteria in all of the events sampled. Dissolved Cu and Zn accounted for 36 and 45% of the total concentration, whereas Mn and Fe only accounted for 20 and 4% of their total concentration, respectively. Since they are more mobile and have higher bioaccumulation potentials, Zn and Cu are considered to be more hazardous to the aquatic environment than Fe and Mn. With high imperviousness (100%) and intensive traffic at the UBC diesel bus loop, trace metal concentrations were 3, 0.7, 9, and 3.2 times higher than the GVRD urban area limits for Cu, Mn, Fe, and Zn, respectively. The filter showed high and stable capture efficiencies in total metals (Cu 62%, Mn 75%, Fe 83%, Zn 62%), dissolved metals (Cu 39%, Mn 37%, Fe 47%, Zn 32%), turbidity (72%), and suspended solids (74%) removal during the first month of operation. After that, there was gradual degradation. The catch basin filter performance improved significantly for the suspended solids and total metal removal after cleaning. However, the perlite filter medium showed poor performance for dissolved metal removal in the second study period. Based on the findings, a catch basin filter is effective in storm water management to control suspended solids loading from storm water runoff.

Geomagnetic storms can trigger stroke: evidence from 6 large population-based studies in Europe and Australasia.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Parmar, Priya G; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; Bennett, Derrick A; Anderson, Craig S; Thrift, Amanda G; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Rothwell, Peter M; Giroud, Maurice; Bejot, Yannick; Carvil, Phillip; Krishnamurthi, Rita; Kasabov, Nikola

2014-06-01

Although the research linking cardiovascular disorders to geomagnetic activity is accumulating, robust evidence for the impact of geomagnetic activity on stroke occurrence is limited and controversial. We used a time-stratified case-crossover study design to analyze individual participant and daily geomagnetic activity (as measured by Ap Index) data from several large population-based stroke incidence studies (with information on 11 453 patients with stroke collected during 16 031 764 person-years of observation) in New Zealand, Australia, United Kingdom, France, and Sweden conducted between 1981 and 2004. Hazard ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Overall, geomagnetic storms (Ap Index 60+) were associated with 19% increase in the risk of stroke occurrence (95% CI, 11%-27%). The triggering effect of geomagnetic storms was most evident across the combined group of all strokes in those aged <65 years, increasing stroke risk by >50%: moderate geomagnetic storms (60-99 Ap Index) were associated with a 27% (95% CI, 8%-48%) increased risk of stroke occurrence, strong geomagnetic storms (100-149 Ap Index) with a 52% (95% CI, 19%-92%) increased risk, and severe/extreme geomagnetic storms (Ap Index 150+) with a 52% (95% CI, 19%-94%) increased risk (test for trend, P<2×10(-16)). Geomagnetic storms are associated with increased risk of stroke and should be considered along with other established risk factors. Our findings provide a framework to advance stroke prevention through future investigation of the contribution of geomagnetic factors to the risk of stroke occurrence and pathogenesis. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Long-Term Geomagnetically Induced Current Observations From New Zealand: Peak Current Estimates for Extreme Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodger, Craig J.; Mac Manus, Daniel H.; Dalzell, Michael; Thomson, Alan W. P.; Clarke, Ellen; Petersen, Tanja; Clilverd, Mark A.; Divett, Tim

2017-11-01

Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) observations made in New Zealand over 14 years show induction effects associated with a rapidly varying horizontal magnetic field (dBH/dt) during geomagnetic storms. This study analyzes the GIC observations in order to estimate the impact of extreme storms as a hazard to the power system in New Zealand. Analysis is undertaken of GIC in transformer number six in Islington, Christchurch (ISL M6), which had the highest observed currents during the 6 November 2001 storm. Using previously published values of 3,000 nT/min as a representation of an extreme storm with 100 year return period, induced currents of 455 A were estimated for Islington (with the 95% confidence interval range being 155-605 A). For 200 year return periods using 5,000 nT/min, current estimates reach 755 A (confidence interval range 155-910 A). GIC measurements from the much shorter data set collected at transformer number 4 in Halfway Bush, Dunedin, (HWB T4), found induced currents to be consistently a factor of 3 higher than at Islington, suggesting equivalent extreme storm effects of 460-1,815 A (100 year return) and 460-2,720 A (200 year return). An estimate was undertaken of likely failure levels for single-phase transformers, such as HWB T4 when it failed during the 6 November 2001 geomagnetic storm, identifying that induced currents of 100 A can put such transformer types at risk of damage. Detailed modeling of the New Zealand power system is therefore required to put this regional analysis into a global context.

40 CFR 122.34 - As an operator of a regulated small MS4, what will my NPDES MS4 storm water permit require?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... management program designed to reduce the discharge of pollutants from your MS4 to the maximum extent... Clean Water Act. Your storm water management program must include the minimum control measures described... (BMPs) are generally the most appropriate form of effluent limitations when designed to satisfy...

40 CFR 122.34 - As an operator of a regulated small MS4, what will my NPDES MS4 storm water permit require?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... management program designed to reduce the discharge of pollutants from your MS4 to the maximum extent... Clean Water Act. Your storm water management program must include the minimum control measures described... (BMPs) are generally the most appropriate form of effluent limitations when designed to satisfy...

40 CFR 122.34 - As an operator of a regulated small MS4, what will my NPDES MS4 storm water permit require?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... management program designed to reduce the discharge of pollutants from your MS4 to the maximum extent... Clean Water Act. Your storm water management program must include the minimum control measures described... (BMPs) are generally the most appropriate form of effluent limitations when designed to satisfy...

40 CFR 122.34 - As an operator of a regulated small MS4, what will my NPDES MS4 storm water permit require?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... management program designed to reduce the discharge of pollutants from your MS4 to the maximum extent... Clean Water Act. Your storm water management program must include the minimum control measures described... (BMPs) are generally the most appropriate form of effluent limitations when designed to satisfy...

40 CFR 122.34 - As an operator of a regulated small MS4, what will my NPDES MS4 storm water permit require?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., accumulated sediments, floatables, and other debris); and ways to ensure that new flood management projects... management program designed to reduce the discharge of pollutants from your MS4 to the maximum extent... Clean Water Act. Your storm water management program must include the minimum control measures described...

40 CFR 122.30 - What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s? 122.30 Section 122.30 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM Permit Application and...

40 CFR 122.30 - What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 21 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the objectives of the storm water regulations for small MS4s? 122.30 Section 122.30 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) WATER PROGRAMS EPA ADMINISTERED PERMIT PROGRAMS: THE NATIONAL POLLUTANT DISCHARGE ELIMINATION SYSTEM Permit Application and...

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model which had been used for Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (Hall 2011) as well as North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis (Hall and Jewson 2007). The introduction of these tracks complements the shortage of the historical samples and allows for more reliable PDFs required for implementation of JPM-OS. Using the 33,731 tracks and JPM-OS, an optimal storm ensemble is determined. This approach results in different storms/winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, and produces different Base Flood Elevation maps for coastal regions. Coastal inundation maps produced by the two different methods will be discussed in detail in the poster paper.

Severe storm electricity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rust, W. D.; Macgorman, D. R.

1985-01-01

During FY-85, Researchers conducted a field program and analyzed data. The field program incorporated coordinated measurements made with a NASA U2. Results include the following: (1) ground truth measurements of lightning for comparison with those obtained by the U2; (2) analysis of dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning mapping data from a supercell storm; (3) analysis of synoptic conditions during three simultaneous storm systems on 13 May 1983 when unusually large numbers of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) flashes occurred; (4) analysis of extremely low frequency (ELF) wave forms; and (5) an assessment of a cloud -ground strike location system using a combination of mobile laboratory and fixed-base TV video data.

The Impact Hazard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, David

1994-01-01

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Science as a foundation for discussing, recognizing and mitigating storm-disaster vulnerabilities in mountain and downstream communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kauneckis, D. L.; Cox, D. A.; Albano, C.; Welborn, T.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have historically caused ~80% of the most extreme winter storms and largest floods in California and parts of northwestern Nevada. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme-storm scenario to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to explore and mitigate potential impacts. The scenario was constructed by concatenating two historical AR sequences and quantified by simulating them using a regional-weather model nested within global weather fields, resulting in a climatologically plausible 23-day storm sequence. The ARkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six meetings with over 300 participants from local agencies, first-responders and local communities, each meeting having a different geographic or sectoral focus. These stakeholder meetings and an 18-question survey identified a wide range of social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs to prepare and mitigate consequenses, and proactive measures to minimize impacts. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human environments by impeding emergency response efforts. Natural resource impacts of greatest concern include flooding, impacts to water quality, spread and establishment of invasive species, and interactions with other disturbance types (e.g., fire, landslides). Science needs include improved monitoring and models to facilitate better prediction and response, real-time and forecast inundation mapping to understand flood risks, and vulnerability assessments related to geomorphic hazards and water quality impacts. Results from this effort highlight several opportunities for increasing the resilience of communities and the environment to extreme storm events. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a "tabletop" emergency-response exercise with over 120 participants in March 2014, as well as reports back to the community including specific recommendations for increasing preparedness, response, recovery, and resilience to extreme winter storm events.

Mapping Hurricane Inland-Storm Tides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turco, M.; East, J. W.; Dorsey, M. E.; McGee, B. D.; McCallum, B. E.; Pearman, J. L.; Sallenger, A. H.; Holmes, R. R.; Berembrock, C. E.; Turnipseed, D. P.; Mason, R. R.

2008-12-01

Historically, hurricane-induced storm-tides were documented through analysis of structural or vegetative damage and high-water marks. However, these sources rarely provided quantitative information about the timing of the flooding, the sequencing of multiple paths by which the storm-surge waters arrived, or the magnitude of waves and wave run-up comprising floodwaters. In response to these deficiencies, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) developed and deployed an experimental mobile storm-surge network to provide detailed time-series data for selected hurricane landfalls. The USGS first deployed the network in September 2005 as Hurricane Rita approached the Texas and Louisiana coasts. The network for Rita consisted of 32 water-level and 14 barometric-pressure monitoring sites. Sensors were located at distances ranging from a few hundred feet to approximately 30 miles inland and sampled 4,000 square miles. Deployments have also occurred for Hurricanes Wilma, Gustav, and Ike. For Hurricane Gustav, more than 100 water level sensors were deployed. Analysis of the water-level data enable construction of maps depicting surge topography through time and space, essentially rendering elements of a 3-dimensional view of the storm-surge dome as it moves on- shore, as well as a map of maximum water-level elevations. The USGS also acquired LIDAR topographic data from coasts impacted by hurricanes. These data reveal extreme changes to the beaches and barrier islands that arise from hurricane storm surge and waves. By better understanding where extreme changes occur along our coasts, we will be able to position coastal structures away from hazards.

Predicting geomorphic evolution through integration of numerical-model scenarios and topographic/bathymetric-survey updates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Long, J.; Dalyander, S.; Thompson, D.; Miselis, J. L.

2013-12-01

Natural resource and hazard management of barrier islands requires an understanding of geomorphic changes associated with long-term processes and storms. Uncertainty exists in understanding how long-term processes interact with the geomorphic changes caused by storms and the resulting perturbations of the long-term evolution trajectories. We use high-resolution data sets to initialize and correct high-fidelity numerical simulations of oceanographic forcing and resulting barrier island evolution. We simulate two years of observed storms to determine the individual and cumulative impacts of these events. Results are separated into cross-shore and alongshore components of sediment transport and compared with observed topographic and bathymetric changes during these time periods. The discrete island change induced by these storms is integrated with previous knowledge of long-term net alongshore sediment transport to project island evolution. The approach has been developed and tested using data collected at the Chandeleur Island chain off the coast of Louisiana (USA). The simulation time period included impacts from tropical and winter storms, as well as a human-induced perturbation associated with construction of a sand berm along the island shoreline. The predictions and observations indicated that storm and long-term processes both contribute to the migration, lowering, and disintegration of the artificial berm and natural island. Further analysis will determine the relative importance of cross-shore and alongshore sediment transport processes and the dominant time scales that drive each of these processes and subsequent island morphologic response.

Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

2014-11-01

Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

2012-01-01

Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

Weather Safety - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov Websites

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Safety Weather Safety This page weather safety. StormReady NOAA Weather Radio Emergency Managers Information Network U.S. Hazard Assmt

78 FR 52955 - Changes in Flood Hazard Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-27

... repository revision modification No. New York: Monroe Village of The Honorable John Village Hall, 28 http://www.rampp- December 3, 2013 360437 Webster, (13-02- Cahill, Mayor, West Main team.com/ 0260P). Village...- Julian Castro, Public Works, team.com/ 1131P). Mayor, City of Storm Water lomrs.htm. San Antonio, P.O...

75 FR 25283 - Mississippi; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-05-07

... counties in the State of Mississippi are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant... declaration of a major disaster for the State of Mississippi (FEMA-1906-DR), dated April 29, 2010, and related... in certain areas of the State of Mississippi resulting from severe storms, tornadoes, and flooding...

76 FR 44346 - Vermont; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-07-25

... determined that the damage in certain areas of the State of Vermont resulting from severe storms and flooding... within the State of Vermont are eligible to apply for assistance under the Hazard Mitigation Grant... declaration of a major disaster for the State of Vermont (FEMA-1995-DR), dated June 15, 2011, and related...

75 FR 52963 - Illinois; Major Disaster and Related Determinations

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-30

... the damage in certain areas of the State of Illinois resulting from severe storms and flooding during... declaration of a major disaster for the State of Illinois (FEMA-1935-DR), dated August 19, 2010, and related... assistance is supplemental, any Federal funds provided under the Stafford Act for Hazard Mitigation and Other...

ED15-0249-241

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-08-13

NASA's remotely piloted Global Hawk aircraft will complete a series of flights in February to support the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign. The mission, called Sensing Hazards Operational Unmanned Technology or SHOUT, will focus on gathering El Niño storm data out over the Pacific Ocean.

76 FR 18066 - National Oil and Hazardous Substances Pollution Contingency Plan; National Priorities List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-01

...-site) 518 tons of contaminated soil. During the removal, water samples taken from the storm drain... demolition phase took place immediately prior to and in connection with the relocation of soil and sediment... informing the public that the deletion will not take effect. ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by...

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Southeast Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Thompson, David M.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2013-01-01

Beaches serve as a natural barrier between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. During storms, large waves may erode beaches, and high storm surge shifts the erosive force of the waves higher on the beach. In some cases, the combined effects of waves and surge may cause overwash or flooding. Building and infrastructure on or near a dune can be undermined during wave attack and subsequent erosion. During Hurricane Ivan in 2004, a five-story condominium in Orange Beach, Alabama, collapsed after the sand dune supporting the foundation eroded. The September 1999 landfall of Hurricane Dennis caused erosion and undermining that destroyed roads, foundations, and septic systems. Waves overtopping a dune can transport sand inland, covering roads and blocking evacuation routes or emergency relief. If storm surge inundates barrier island dunes, currents flowing across the island can create a breach, or new inlet, completely severing evacuation routes. Waves and surge during the 2003 landfall of Hurricane Isabel left a 200-meter (m) wide breach that cut the only road to and from the village of Hatteras, N.C. Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes on a barrier island are eroded substantially, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. Absent or low dunes also allow water to flow inland across the island, potentially increasing storm surge in the back bay, on the soundside of the barrier, and on the mainland. During Hurricane Isabel the protective sand dunes near the breach were completely eroded, increasing vulnerability to future storms.

40 CFR 123.25 - Requirements for permitting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... subchapter N; (38) For a Great Lakes State or Tribe (as defined in 40 CFR 132.2), 40 CFR part 132 (NPDES... NPDES storm water program?); (41) § 122.32 (As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?); (42) § 122.33 (If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply...

40 CFR 123.25 - Requirements for permitting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... subchapter N; (38) For a Great Lakes State or Tribe (as defined in 40 CFR 132.2), 40 CFR part 132 (NPDES... NPDES storm water program?); (41) § 122.32 (As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?); (42) § 122.33 (If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply...

40 CFR 123.25 - Requirements for permitting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... subchapter N; (38) For a Great Lakes State or Tribe (as defined in 40 CFR 132.2), 40 CFR part 132 (NPDES... NPDES storm water program?); (41) § 122.32 (As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?); (42) § 122.33 (If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply...

40 CFR 123.25 - Requirements for permitting.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... subchapter N; (38) For a Great Lakes State or Tribe (as defined in 40 CFR 132.2), 40 CFR part 132 (NPDES... NPDES storm water program?); (41) § 122.32 (As an operator of a small MS4, am I regulated under the NPDES storm water program?); (42) § 122.33 (If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply...

Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the National Hurricane Center SLOSH model for Storm Surge inundation for category 1, 2, and 3 hurricanes.Geographic areas are represented by a grid of 10 by 10 meter cells and each cell has a ranking based on variation in exposure to flooding hazards: Moderate, High and Extreme exposure. Geographic areas in each input layers are ranked based on their probability of flood risk exposure. The logic was such that areas exposed to flooding on a more frequent basis were given a higher ranking. Thus the ranking incorporates the probability of the area being flooded. For example, even though a Category 3 storm surge has higher flooding elevations, the likelihood of the occurrence is lower than a Category 1 storm surge and therefore the Category 3 flood area is given a lower exposure ranking. Extreme exposure areas are those areas that are exposed to relatively frequent flooding.The ranked input layers are then converted to a raster for the creation of the composite risk layer by using cell statistics in spatial analysis. The highest exposure ranking for a given cell in any of the three input layers is assigned to the corresponding cell in the composite layer.For example, if an area (a cell) is rank as medium in the FEMA layer, moderate in the SLOSH layer, but extreme in the SCF layer, the cell will be considere

Effects of the H-3 Highway Stormwater Runoff on the Water Quality of Halawa Stream, Oahu, Hawaii, November 1998 to August 2004

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolff, Reuben H.; Wong, Michael F.

2008-01-01

Since November 1998, water-quality data have been collected from the H-3 Highway Storm Drain C, which collects runoff from a 4-mi-long viaduct, and from Halawa Stream on Oahu, Hawaii. From January 2001 to August 2004, data were collected from the storm drain and four stream sites in the Halawa Stream drainage basin as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Storm Water Monitoring Program. Data from the stormwater monitoring program have been published in annual reports. This report uses these water-quality data to explore how the highway storm-drain runoff affects Halawa Stream and the factors that might be controlling the water quality in the drainage basin. In general, concentrations of nutrients, total dissolved solids, and total suspended solids were lower in highway runoff from Storm Drain C than at stream sites upstream and downstream of Storm Drain C. The opposite trend was observed for most trace metals, which generally occurred in higher concentrations in the highway runoff from Storm Drain C than in the samples collected from Halawa Stream. The absolute contribution from Storm Drain C highway runoff, in terms of total storm loads, was much smaller than at stations upstream and downstream, whereas the constituent yields (the relative contribution per unit drainage basin area) at Storm Drain C were comparable to or higher than storm yields at stations upstream and downstream. Most constituent concentrations and loads in stormwater runoff increased in a downstream direction. The timing of the storm sampling is an important factor controlling constituent concentrations observed in stormwater runoff samples. Automated point samplers were used to collect grab samples during the period of increasing discharge of the storm throughout the stormflow peak and during the period of decreasing discharge of the storm, whereas manually collected grab samples were generally collected during the later stages near the end of the storm. Grab samples were analyzed to determine concentrations and loads at a particular point in time. Flow-weighted time composite samples from the automated point samplers were analyzed to determine mean constituent concentrations or loads during a storm. Chemical analysis of individual grab samples from the automated point sampler at Storm Drain C demonstrated the ?first flush? phenomenon?higher constituent concentrations at the beginning of runoff events?for the trace metals cadmium, lead, zinc, and copper, whose concentrations were initially high during the period of increasing discharge and gradually decreased over the duration of the storm. Water-quality data from Storm Drain C and four stream sites were compared to the State of Hawaii Department of Health (HDOH) water-quality standards to determine the effects of highway storm runoff on the water quality of Halawa Stream. The geometric-mean standards and the 10- and 2-percent-of-the-time concentration standards for total nitrogen, nitrite plus nitrate, total phosphorus, total suspended solids, and turbidity were exceeded in many of the comparisons. However, these standards were not designed for stormwater sampling, in which constituent concentrations would be expected to increase for short periods of time. With the aim of enhancing the usefulness of the water-quality data, several modifications to the stormwater monitoring program are suggested. These suggestions include (1) the periodic analyzing of discrete samples from the automated point samplers over the course of a storm to get a clearer profile of the storm, from first flush to the end of the receding discharge; (2) adding an analysis of the dissolved fractions of metals to the sampling plan; (3) installation of an automatic sampler at Bridge 8 to enable sampling earlier in the storms; (4) a one-time sampling and analysis of soils upstream of Bridge 8 for base-line contaminant concentrations; (5) collection of samples from Halawa Stream during low-flow conditions

Comprehensive Flood Plain Studies Using Spatial Data Management Techniques.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-06-01

Hydrologic Engineer- ing Center computer programs that forecast urban storm water quality and dynamic in- stream water quality response to waste...determination. Water Quality The water quality analysis planned for the pilot study includes urban storm water quality forecasting and in-streamn...analysis is performed under the direction of Tony Thomas. Chief, Research Branch, by Jess Abbott for storm water quality analysis, R. G. Willey for

Comparison between the Coastal Impacts of Cyclone Nargis and the Indian Ocean Tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Blount, C.

2009-12-01

On 26 December 2004 a great earthquake with a moment magnitude of 9.3 occurred off the North tip of Sumatra, Indonesia. The Indian Ocean tsunami claimed 230,000 lives making it the deadliest in recorded history. Less than 4 years later tropical cyclone Nargis (Cat. 4) made landfall in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady delta on 2 May 2008 causing the worst natural disaster in Myanmar’s recorded history. Official death toll estimates exceed 138,000 fatalities making it the 7th deadliest cyclone ever recorded worldwide. The Bay of Bengal counts seven tropical cyclones with death tolls in excess of 100,000 striking India and Bangladesh in the past 425 years, which highlights the difference in return periods between extreme cyclones and tsunamis. Damage estimates at over $10 billion made Nargis the most damaging cyclone ever recorded in the Indian Ocean. Although the two natural disasters are completely different in their generation mechanisms they both share massive coastal inundations as primary damage and death cause. While the damage patterns exhibit similarities the forcing differs. The primary tsunami impact is dominated by the runup of a few main waves washing rapidly ashore and inducing high lateral forces. On the contrary the tropical cyclone storm surge damage is the result of numerous storm waves continuously hitting the flooded structures on the elevated storm tide level. While coastal vegetation such as mangroves may be effective at reducing superimposed storm waves they are limited at reducing storm surge. Unfortunately, mangroves have been significantly cut for charcoal and land use as rice paddies in Myanmar due to rapid population growth and economic reasons, thereby increasing coastal vulnerability and land loss due to erosion (Figure 1). The period of a storm surge is typically an order of magnitude longer than the period of a tsunami resulting in significantly larger inundation distances along coastal plains and river deltas. The storm surge of cyclone Nargis penetrated more than 50 km inland along the Ayeyarwady delta while the maximum inundation of the Indian Ocean tsunami was 7 km at Banda Aceh. The extent of affected coast lines differs with 2 m storm surge thresholds of cyclone Nargis spanning 200 km of coastline, whereas East Africa was severely affected by the Indian Ocean tsunami at 5000 km from the epicenter. The available time window for dissemination of warnings and evacuations are significantly shorter for tsunamis than cyclones. Coastal protection in the Indian Ocean must be approached with community-based planning, education and awareness programs suited for a multi-hazard perspective. Ayeyarwady delta in Myanmar after cyclone Nargis: (a) Deforestation of mangroves for use as charcoal and land use as rice paddies; (b) Drinking water wells scoured in surf zone at Aya highlighting more than 100 m land loss due to coastal erosion.

Natural Hazard Problem and Solution Definition in the News Media: the Case of Tropical Storm Allison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindquist, Eric; Mosher-Howe, Katrina

2010-05-01

Focusing events such as natural or technological disasters can have significant impacts on public policy and planning in both the near and long term. These impacts can manifest at different temporal scales ranging from the period of immediate attention and disaster relief through the period of recovery and reconstruction and beyond. These impacts and associated decisions can be studied in retrospect and understood as not only short-term reactions, but as long-term components of subsequent natural hazard planning and public policy. By studying in detail how an event was defined, and the policy and planning alternatives that were raised or recommended in response to a disaster event, we can better understand the role that disaster-related focusing events play in the long-term evolution of a community's public policy, infrastructural planning efforts, and responses to natural disasters. This paper will use a focusing event framework to explore the local and regional policy impacts over time of a major urban flood in Houston, Texas, Tropical Storm Allison. Tropical Storm Allison (TSA), dropped 36 inches of rain on Houston over a period of four days in early June 2001, and was responsible for 22 deaths, 70,000 flood damaged homes, and 5 billion in damage to the region. The primary data source for this effort is a database of 500 articles from the major regional newspaper, the Houston Chronicle, over the period of 2001 through 2008. These articles were coded for multiple variables, including, cause, effect and impact (financial and social), blame, problem and solution definition and solution acceptance). This paper focuses primarily on the measures of problem definition (how was TSA, as an event, defined in the media, for example, as an act of God, or as a result of poor planning or decision making, etc), and on solution definition (what solutions were proposed to mitigate or adapt to future storms of this magnitude, how were they linked to the definition of the problem, and what was the perceived acceptability of such solutions among divers stakeholders). As such, this paper will contribute to our efforts to further link the social and policy sciences theory and methods with natural hazards research.

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orton, P.; Conticello, F.; Cioffi, F.; Hall, T.; Georgas, N.; Lall, U.; Blumberg, A.

2015-01-01

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Maofeng

Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET events on the projected increase of TC frequency in the eastern North Atlantic, highlighting increased exposure of the northeastern United States and Western Europe to storm hazards. Retrospective seasonal forecast experiments demonstrate the skill of HiFLOR in predicting basinwide and regional ET frequency. This skill, however, is not seen in the seasonal prediction of ET rate. More work on the property of signal-to-noise ratio of ET rate is needed.

Potential hazards from floodflows in Grapevine Canyon, Death Valley National Monument, California and Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowers, J.C.

1990-01-01

Grapevine Canyon is on the western slope of the Grapevine Mountains in the northern part of Death Valley National Monument , California and Nevada. Grapevine Canyon Road covers the entire width of the canyon floor in places and is a frequently traveled route to Scotty 's Castle in the canyon. The region is arid and subject to flash flooding because of infrequent but intense convective storms. When these storms occur, normally in the summer, the resulting floods may create a hazard to visitor safety and property. Historical data on rainfall and floodflow in Grapevine Canyon are sparse. Data from studies made for similar areas in the desert mountains of southern California provide the basis for estimating discharges and the corresponding frequency of floods in the study area. Results of this study indicate that high-velocity flows of water and debris , even at shallow depths, may scour and damage Grapevine Canyon Road. When discharge exceeds 4,900 cu ft/sec, expected at a recurrence interval of between 25 and 50 years, the Scotty 's Castle access road and bridge may be damaged and the parking lot partly inundated. A flood having a 100-year or greater recurrence interval probably would wash out the bridge and present a hazard to the stable and garage buildings but not to the castle buildings, whose foundations are higher than the predicted maximum flood level. (USGS)

Intensified coastal development in beach-nourishment zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, E.; Armstrong, S.; Limber, P. W.; Goldstein, E. B.; Ballinger, R.

2016-12-01

Population density, housing development, and property values in coastal counties along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts continue to rise despite increasing hazard from storm impacts. Beach nourishment, a method for mitigating coastal storm damage or chronic erosion by deliberately replacing sand on an eroded beach, has been the leading form of coastal protection in the U.S. since the 1970s. However, investment in hazard protection can have the unintended consequence of encouraging development in places especially vulnerable to damage. To quantitatively compare development in nourishing and non-nourishing zones, we examine the parcel-scale housing stock of all shorefront single-family homes in the state of Florida. We find that houses in nourishing zones are significantly larger and more numerous than in non-nourishing zones. Florida represents both an advanced case of coastal risk and an exemplar of ubiquitous, fundamental challenges in coastal management. The predominance of larger homes in nourishing zones indicates a positive feedback between nourishment and development that is compounding coastal risk in zones already characterized by high vulnerability. We offer that this phenomenon represents a variant of Jevons' paradox, a theoretical argument from environmental economics in which more efficient use of a resource spurs an increase in its consumption. Here, we suggest reductions in coastal risk through hazard protection are ultimately offset or reversed by increased coastal development.

Remediation of Mercury-Contaminated Storm Sewer Sediments from the West End Mercury Area at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, Tennessee - 12061

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tremaine, Diana; Douglas, Steven G.

2012-07-01

The Y-12 National Security Complex in Oak Ridge, TN has faced an ongoing challenge from mercury entrapped in soils beneath and adjacent to buildings, storm sewers, and process pipelines. Previous actions to reduce the quantity and/or mobilization of mercury-contaminated media have included plugging of building floor drains, cleaning of sediment and sludge from sumps, manholes, drain lines, and storm sewers, lining/relining of storm sewers and replacement of a portion of the storm sewer trunk line, re-routing and removal of process piping, and installation of the Central Mercury Treatment System to capture and treat contaminated sump water. Despite the success ofmore » these actions, mercury flux in the storm sewer out-falls that discharge to Upper East Fork Poplar Creek (UEFPC) continues to pose a threat to long-term water quality. A video camera survey of the storm sewer network revealed several sections of storm sewer that had large cracks, separations, swells, and accumulations of sediment/sludge and debris. The selected remedy was to clean and line the sections of storm sewer pipe that were determined to be primary contributors to the mercury flux in the storm sewer out-falls. The project, referred to as the West End Mercury Area (WEMA) Storm Sewer Remediation Project, included cleaning sediment and debris from over 2,460 meters of storm sewer pipe followed by the installation of nearly 366 meters of cure-in-place pipe (CIPP) liner. One of the greatest challenges to the success of this project was the high cost of disposal associated with the mercury-contaminated sludge and wastewater generated from the storm sewer cleaning process. A contractor designed and operated an on-site wastewater pre-treatment system that successfully reduced mercury levels in 191 cubic meters of sludge to levels that allowed it to be disposed at Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS) disposal cell as a non-hazardous, low-level waste. The system was also effective at pre-treating over 1,514,000 liters of wastewater to levels that met the waste acceptance criteria for the on-site West End [wastewater] Treatment Facility (WETF). This paper describes the storm sewer cleaning and lining process and the methods used to process the mercury-contaminated sludge and wastewater, as well as several 'lessons learned' that would be relevant to any future projects involving storm sewer cleaning and debris remediation. (authors)« less

Determining Coastal Hazards Risk Perception to Enhance Local Mitigation Planning through a Participatory Mapping Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bethel, M.; Braud, D.; Lambeth, T.; Biber, P.; Wu, W.

2017-12-01

Coastal community leaders, government officials, and natural resource managers must be able to accurately assess and predict a given coastal landscape's sustainability and/or vulnerability as coastal habitat continues to undergo rapid and dramatic changes associated with natural and anthropogenic activities such as accelerated relative sea level rise (SLR). To help address this information need, a multi-disciplinary project team conducted Sea Grant sponsored research in Louisiana and Mississippi with traditional ecosystem users and natural resource managers to determine a method for producing localized vulnerability and sustainability maps for projected SLR and storm surge impacts, and determine how and whether the results of such an approach can provide more useful information to enhance hazard mitigation planning. The goals of the project are to develop and refine SLR visualization tools for local implementation in areas experiencing subsidence and erosion, and discover the different ways stakeholder groups evaluate risk and plan mitigation strategies associated with projected SLR and storm surge. Results from physical information derived from data and modeling of subsidence, erosion, engineered restoration and coastal protection features, historical land loss, and future land projections under SLR are integrated with complimentary traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) offered by the collaborating local ecosystem users for these assessments. The data analysis involves interviewing stakeholders, coding the interviews for themes, and then converting the themes into vulnerability and sustainability factors. Each factor is weighted according to emphasis by the TEK experts and number of experts who mention it to determine which factors are the highest priority. The priority factors are then mapped with emphasis on the perception of contributing to local community vulnerability or sustainability to SLR and storm surge. The maps are used by the collaborators to benefit local hazard mitigation and adaptation planning. The results to date in achieving the project objectives will be presented that include: analyses of scientific field data collected related to marsh vegetation biomass characteristics, analyses of TEK data collected, and mapping products developed.

NASA Earth Science Disasters Program Response Activities During Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, J. R.; Schultz, L. A.; Molthan, A.; Kirschbaum, D.; Roman, M.; Yun, S. H.; Meyer, F. J.; Hogenson, K.; Gens, R.; Goodman, H. M.; Owen, S. E.; Lou, Y.; Amini, R.; Glasscoe, M. T.; Brentzel, K. W.; Stefanov, W. L.; Green, D. S.; Murray, J. J.; Seepersad, J.; Struve, J. C.; Thompson, V.

2017-12-01

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season included a series of storms that impacted the United States, and the Caribbean breaking a 12-year drought of landfalls in the mainland United States (Harvey and Irma), with additional impacts from the combination of Irma and Maria felt in the Caribbean. These storms caused widespread devastation resulting in a significant need to support federal partners in response to these destructive weather events. The NASA Earth Science Disasters Program provided support to federal partners including the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the National Guard Bureau (NGB) by leveraging remote sensing and other expertise through NASA Centers and partners in academia throughout the country. The NASA Earth Science Disasters Program leveraged NASA mission products from the GPM mission to monitor cyclone intensity, assist with cyclone center tracking, and quantifying precipitation. Multispectral imagery from the NASA-NOAA Suomi-NPP mission and the VIIRS Day-Night Band proved useful for monitoring power outages and recovery. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 satellites operated by the European Space Agency were used to create flood inundation and damage assessment maps that were useful for damage density mapping. Using additional datasets made available through the USGS Hazards Data Distribution System and the activation of the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters, the NASA Earth Science Disasters Program created additional flood products from optical and radar remote sensing platforms, along with PI-led efforts to derive products from other international partner assets such as the COSMO-SkyMed system. Given the significant flooding impacts from Harvey in the Houston area, NASA provided airborne L-band SAR collections from the UAVSAR system which captured the daily evolution of record flooding, helping to guide response and mitigation decisions for critical infrastructure and public safety. We will provide an overview of the response activities and data products provided by the NASA Earth Science Disasters program, partnerships with federal end-users and the International Charter, and preliminary feedback from end-user partners during response efforts following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria..

The California Hazards Institute

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

2006-12-01

California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for leaders, managers, stakeholders, policy makers, educators and the public to effectively and comprehensively combat the problems caused by the natural hazards that threaten California. During this first year of operation, UC faculty involved in the CHI will identify the science and technology research priorities of the Institute, followed by the solicitation of participation by other important stakeholders within California. The CHI is founded upon the idea that the hazards associated with events such as earthquakes and floods need not become great disasters such as the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 and 2005 Hurricane Katrina if these hazards can be anticipated proactively, before they must be dealt with reactively.

Lightning Jump Algorithm Development for the GOES·R Geostationary Lightning Mapper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz. E.; Schultz. C.; Chronis, T.; Stough, S.; Carey, L.; Calhoun, K.; Ortega, K.; Stano, G.; Cecil, D.; Bateman, M.;

Research in lightning swept-stroke attachment patterns and flight conditions with the NASA F-106B airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, B. D.; Brown, P. W.; Plumer, J. A.

1985-01-01

Data on 637 direct lightning strikes and 117 close flashes observed by the NASA instrumented F-106B aircraft as part of the Storm Hazards Program at NASA Langley during 1980-1984 are compiled and analyzed, updating the report of Fisher and Plumer (1983). The airborne and ground-based measurement and recording apparatus and the flight and data-reduction procedures are described, and the results are discussed in terms of lightning-strike-conducive flight conditions and lightning attachment patterns. A peak strike rate of 2.1/min is found at altitude 38,000-40,000 ft and temperature below -40 C, with very few strikes below 20,000 ft. Four categories of swept-flash attachment pattern are identified, but it is pointed out that all exterior surfaces of the F-106B are potential attachment sites.

Testing of best management practices for controlling highway runoff.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1993-01-01

In order to obtain the necessary detailed design guidelines for storm water best management practices (BMPs) included in the Virginia Department of Transportation's storm water manual, a field program was initiated in 1991 for testing the pollutant r...

Microcomputer software for storm drain hydraulic gradeline computation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-01-01

A microcomputer software module was developed for the computation of hydraulic gradeline in storm sewer systems. The computer module has been attached to the program '"HYDRA", which is being adopted by the FHWA organized Pooled Fund Study. on Integra...

The FASTER Approach: A New Tool for Calculating Real-Time Tsunami Flood Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, R. I.; Cross, A.; Johnson, L.; Miller, K.; Nicolini, T.; Whitmore, P.

2014-12-01

In the aftermath of the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan tsunamis that struck the California coastline, emergency managers requested that the state tsunami program provide more detailed information about the flood potential of distant-source tsunamis well ahead of their arrival time. The main issue is that existing tsunami evacuation plans call for evacuation of the predetermined "worst-case" tsunami evacuation zone (typically at a 30- to 50-foot elevation) during any "Warning" level event; the alternative is to not call an evacuation at all. A solution to provide more detailed information for secondary evacuation zones has been the development of tsunami evacuation "playbooks" to plan for tsunami scenarios of various sizes and source locations. To determine a recommended level of evacuation during a distant-source tsunami, an analytical tool has been developed called the "FASTER" approach, an acronym for factors that influence the tsunami flood hazard for a community: Forecast Amplitude, Storm, Tides, Error in forecast, and the Run-up potential. Within the first couple hours after a tsunami is generated, the National Tsunami Warning Center provides tsunami forecast amplitudes and arrival times for approximately 60 coastal locations in California. At the same time, the regional NOAA Weather Forecast Offices in the state calculate the forecasted coastal storm and tidal conditions that will influence tsunami flooding. Providing added conservatism in calculating tsunami flood potential, we include an error factor of 30% for the forecast amplitude, which is based on observed forecast errors during recent events, and a site specific run-up factor which is calculated from the existing state tsunami modeling database. The factors are added together into a cumulative FASTER flood potential value for the first five hours of tsunami activity and used to select the appropriate tsunami phase evacuation "playbook" which is provided to each coastal community shortly after the forecast is provided.

Monitoring Space Weather Hazards caused by geomagnetic disturbances with Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Gannon, J. L.; Peek, T. A.; Lin, D.

2017-12-01

One space weather hazard is the Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) in the electric power transmission systems, which is naturally induced geoelectric field during the geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs). GICs are a potentially catastrophic threat to bulk power systems. For instance, the Blackout in Quebec in March 1989 was caused by GMDs during a significant magnetic storm. To monitor the GMDs, the autonomous Space Hazard Monitor (SHM) system is developed recently. The system includes magnetic field measurement from magnetometers and geomagnetic field measurement from electrodes. In this presentation, we introduce the six sites of SHMs which have been deployed in the US continental regions. The data from the magnetometers are processed with the Multiple Observatory Geomagnetic Data Analysis Software (MOGDAS). And the statistical results are presented here. It reveals not only the impacts of space weather over US continental region but also the potential of improving instrumentation development to provide better space weather monitor.

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, Ben Joseph; Mendoza, Jerico; Uichanco, Christopher; Mahar Francisco Amante Lagmay, Alfredo; Moises, Mark Anthony; Delmendo, Patricia; Eneri Tingin, Neil

2015-04-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of people in areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tapales, B. J. M.; Mendoza, J.; Uichanco, C.; Lagmay, A. M. F. A.; Moises, M. A.; Delmendo, P.; Tingin, N. E.

2014-12-01

Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more efficient exchange of information, allowing for flood simulations to be utilized in local flood disaster management programs. The success of these systems relies heavily on the knowledge of the people involved. As environmental changes create more significant impacts, the need to adapt to these is vital for man's safety. [1] Pacific Disaster Center

Remote Sensing Analysis of Forest Disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asner, Gregory P. (Inventor)

2015-01-01

The present invention provides systems and methods to automatically analyze Landsat satellite data of forests. The present invention can easily be used to monitor any type of forest disturbance such as from selective logging, agriculture, cattle ranching, natural hazards (fire, wind events, storms), etc. The present invention provides a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote sensing analysis of such disturbances.

Remote sensing analysis of forest disturbances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asner, Gregory P. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

The present invention provides systems and methods to automatically analyze Landsat satellite data of forests. The present invention can easily be used to monitor any type of forest disturbance such as from selective logging, agriculture, cattle ranching, natural hazards (fire, wind events, storms), etc. The present invention provides a large-scale, high-resolution, automated remote sensing analysis of such disturbances.

77 FR 59879 - Idaho: Incorporation by Reference of Approved State Hazardous Waste Management Program

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-01

...: Incorporation by Reference of Approved State Hazardous Waste Management Program AGENCY: Environmental Protection... ``Approved State Hazardous Waste Management Programs,'' Idaho's authorized hazardous waste program. The EPA... Federal Register, the EPA is codifying and incorporating by reference the State's hazardous waste program...

Post-Hurricane Katrina coastal oblique aerial photographs collected from Panama City, Florida, to Lakeshore, Mississippi, and the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, August 31, 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morgan, Karen L. M.; DeWitt, Nancy T.

2017-04-03

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), as part of the National Assessment of Storm-Induced Coastal Change Hazards project, conducts baseline and storm-response photography missions to document and understand the changes in vulnerability of the Nation's coasts to extreme storms. On August 31, 2005, the USGS conducted an oblique aerial photographic survey from Panama City, Florida, to Lakeshore, Mississippi, and the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana, aboard a Piper Navajo Chieftain aircraft at an altitude of 500 feet and approximately 1,000 feet offshore. This mission was flown to collect post-Hurricane Katrina data, which can be used to assess incremental changes in the beach and nearshore area and can be used to assess future coastal change.The photographs in this report are Joint Photographic Experts Group (JPEG) images. These photographs document the state of the barrier islands and other coastal features at the time of the survey.

Effect of pellet-cladding interaction (PCI) and degradation mechanisms on spent nuclear fuel rod mechanical performance during transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peterson, Brittany Ann

Winter storms can affect millions of people, with impacts such as disruptions to transportation, hazards to human health, reduction in retail sales, and structural damage. Blizzard forecasts for Alberta Clippers can be a particular challenge in the Northern Plains, as these systems typically depart from the Canadian Rockies, intensify, and impact the Northern Plains all within 24 hours. The purpose of this study is to determine whether probabilistic forecasts derived from a local physics-based ensemble can improve specific aspects of winter storm forecasts for three Alberta Clipper cases. Verification is performed on the ensemble members and ensemble mean with a focus on quantifying uncertainty in the storm track, two-meter winds, and precipitation using the MERRA and NOHRSC SNODAS datasets. This study finds that addition improvements are needed to proceed with operational use of the ensemble blizzard products, but the use of a proxy for blizzard conditions yields promising results.

The North Alabama Severe Thunderstorm Observations, Research, and Monitoring Network (STORMnet)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.; Boccippio, D.; Koshak, W.; Bailey, J.; Hall, J.; Bateman, M.; McCaul, E.; Buechler, D.;

The Relative Severity of Single Hazards within a Multi-Hazard Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gill, Joel C.; Malamud, Bruce D.

2013-04-01

Here we present a description of the relative severity of single hazards within a multi-hazard framework, compiled through examining, quantifying and ranking the extent to which individual hazards trigger or increase the probability of other hazards. Hazards are broken up into six major groupings (geophysical, hydrological, shallow earth processes, atmospheric, biophysical and space), with the interactions for 21 different hazard types examined. These interactions include both one primary hazard triggering a secondary hazard, and one primary hazard increasing the probability of a secondary hazard occurring. We identify, through a wide-ranging review of grey- and peer-review literature, >90 interactions. The number of hazard-type linkages are then summed for each hazard in terms of their influence (the number of times one hazard type triggers another type of hazard, or itself) and their sensitivity (the number of times one hazard type is triggered by other hazard types, or itself). The 21 different hazards are then ranked based on (i) influence and (ii) sensitivity. We found, by quantification and ranking of these hazards, that: (i) The strongest influencers (those triggering the most secondary hazards) are volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and storms, which when taken together trigger almost a third of the possible hazard interactions identified; (ii) The most sensitive hazards (those being triggered by the most primary hazards) are identified to be landslides, volcanic eruptions and floods; (iii) When sensitivity rankings are adjusted to take into account the differential likelihoods of different secondary hazards being triggered, the most sensitive hazards are found to be landslides, floods, earthquakes and ground heave. We believe that by determining the strongest influencing and the most sensitive hazards for specific spatial areas, the allocation of resources for mitigation measures might be done more effectively.

Spatial characteristics of observed precipitation fields: A catalog of summer storms in Arizona, Volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessey, N. M.; Eagleson, P. S.; Qinliang, W.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

1986-01-01

The parameters of the conceptual model are evaluated from the analysis of eight years of summer rainstorm data from the dense raingage network in the Walnut Gulch catchment near Tucson, Arizona. The occurrence of measurable rain at any one of the 93 gages during a noon to noon day defined a storm. The total rainfall at each of the gages during a storm day constituted the data set for a single storm. The data are interpolated onto a fine grid and analyzed to obtain: an isohyetal plot at 2 mm intervals, the first three moments of point storm depth, the spatial correlation function, the spatial variance function, and the spatial distribution of the total storm depth. The description of the data analysis and the computer programs necessary to read the associated data tapes are presented.

Geomagnetic storms: Potential economic impacts on electric utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, P. R.; Vandyke, J. W.

1991-03-01

Geomagnetic storms associated with sunspot and solar flare activity can disturb communications and disrupt electric power. A very severe geomagnetic storm could cause a major blackout with an economic impact of several billion dollars. The vulnerability of electric power systems in the northeast United States will likely increase during the 1990s because of the trend of transmitting large amounts of power over long distance to meet the electricity demands of this region. A comprehensive research program and a warning satellite to monitor the solar wind are needed to enhance the reliability of electric power systems under the influence of geomagnetic storms.

North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato MLR, Pinto JG, Trigo RM, Ludwig P, Ordóñez P, Yuen D, Trigo IF (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:2239-2251. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013 Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B (2010) Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856-868, doi:10.1002/qj.625 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Geoscience Research at Storm Peak (GRASP), a year-long program providing exceptional field research for a diverse group of undergraduate students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallar, A. G.; McCubbin, I. B.; Hallar, B. L.; Stockwell, W.; Kittelson, J.; Lopez, J.

2008-12-01

Geoscience Research at Storm Peak (GRASP) was designed to engage students from underrepresented groups through a partnership between Minority Serving Institutions and the University of Nevada, Reno (UNR). The program exposed the GRASP participants to potential careers in the geosciences, provided them with an authentic research experience at Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL), and gave them an opportunity to explore dynamic scenery. Undergraduate students from Howard University, Colorado State at Pueblo, Leman College, and SUNY Oneonta, gathered at SPL in June of 2008 via funding from the National Science Foundation Opportunity for Enhancing Diversity. The students reunited at Howard University in November to present the results of their research project. Throughout the year-long GRASP program students encountered the scientific process-creating a hypothesis, collecting and analyzing data, and presenting their results. Results from surveys, focus groups, and individual interviews will be discussed in this presentation.

Characteristics of aerosol and meteorological parameters during major dust storm events (2005 - 2010) over Beijing, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Sheng; Cao, Chunxiang; Singh, Ramesh

Multi satellite sensors are capable in monitoring dust storm, its path and changes in atmospheric parameters. The present paper discusses aerosol optical properties and meteorological parameters during major dust storm events (2005-2010) over Beijing, China. The back trajectory model shows that the dust is transported from the Inner Mongolia and Mongolia to Beijing. High aerosol optical depth (AOD) and low Ångström exponent (AE) values are observed during dusty days, the average AOD (675 nm) and AE (440-870 nm) during dusty days are 2.33 and 0.06, respectively. The aerosol size distribution (ASD) in coarse mode shows a large increase in the volume during dusty days. The single scattering albedo (SSA) increases with higher wavelength on dusty days, and higher compared to non-dusty days, indicating the presence of high scattering particles due to dust storm events. Characteristics of particles during dusty and non-dusty days are also supported by the real and imaginary parts of refractive index (RI). High air pollution index (API) during dusty days represent poor air quality is a serious health hazard at the time of dust events. The CO volume mixing ratio (COVMR) from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) shows decrease on the ground on dusty days, while the relative humidity (RH) and H _{2}0 mass mixing ratio (H _{2}OMMR) enhance. In addition, due to the dust storm in 2005, enhanced level of water vapor (WV) using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data is observed in and around Beijing over the dust storms track.

National assessment of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards: Mid-Atlantic Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sopkin, Kristin L.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2013-01-01

Beaches serve as a natural buffer between the ocean and inland communities, ecosystems, and natural resources. However, these dynamic environments move and change in response to winds, waves, and currents. During extreme storms, changes to beaches can be large, and the results are sometimes catastrophic. Lives may be lost, communities destroyed, and millions of dollars spent on rebuilding. During storms, large waves may erode beaches, and high storm surge shifts the erosive force of the waves higher on the beach. In some cases, the combined effects of waves and surge may cause overwash (when waves and surge overtop the dune, transporting sand inland) or flooding. Building and infrastructure on or near a dune can be undermined during wave attack and subsequent erosion. During Hurricane Ivan in 2004, a five-story condominium in Orange Beach, Alabama, collapsed after the sand dune supporting the foundation eroded. Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall as an extra-tropical cyclone on October 29, 2012, caused erosion and undermining that destroyed roads, boardwalks, and foundations in Seaside Heights, New Jersey. Waves overtopping a dune can transport sand inland, covering roads and blocking evacuation routes or emergency relief. If storm surge inundates barrier island dunes, currents flowing across the island can create a breach, or a new inlet, completely severing evacuation routes. Waves and surge during Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall on October 29, 2012, left a breach that cut the road and bridge to Mantoloking, N.J. Extreme coastal changes caused by hurricanes may increase the vulnerability of communities both during a storm and to future storms. For example, when sand dunes on a barrier island are eroded substantially, inland structures are exposed to storm surge and waves. Absent or low dunes also allow water to flow inland across the island, potentially increasing storm surge in the back bay, on the soundside of the barrier, and on the mainland.

Ocean modelling and Early-Warning System for the Gulf of Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Lima Rego, Joao; Yan, Kun; Sisomphon, Piyamarn; Thanathanphon, Watin; Twigt, Daniel; Irazoqui Apecechea, Maialen

2017-04-01

Storm surges associated with severe tropical cyclones are among the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters to coastal areas. The Gulf of Thailand (GoT) has been periodically affected by typhoon induced storm surges in the past (e.g. storm Harriet in 1962, storm Gay in 1989 and storm Linda in 1997). Due to increased touristic / economic development and increased population density in the coastal zone, the combined effect and risk of high water level and increased rainfall / river discharge has dramatically increased and are expected to increase in future due to climate change effects. This presentation describes the development and implementation of the first real-time operational storm surge, wave and wave setup forecasting system in the GoT, a joint applied research initiative by Deltares in The Netherlands and the Hydro and Agro Informatics Institute (HAII) in Thailand. The modelling part includes a new hydrodynamic model to simulate tides and storm surges and two wave models (regional and local). The hydrodynamic model is based on Delft3D Flexible Mesh, capable of simulating water levels and detailed flows. The regional and the recently-developed local wave model are based on the SWAN model, a third-generation wave model. The operational platform is based on Delft-FEWS software, which coordinates all the data inputs, the modelling tasks and the automatic forecast exports including overland inundation in the upper Gulf of Thailand. The main objective of the Gulf of Thailand EWS is to provide daily accurate storm surge, wave and wave setup estimates automatically with various data exports possibilities to support this task. It adds a coastal component to HAII's existing practice of providing daily reports on fluvial flood forecasts, used for decision-support in issuing flood warnings for inland water systems in Thailand. Every day, three-day coastal forecasts are now produced based on the latest regional meteorological predictions. Examples are given to illustrate the system's development and main features, with a focus on decision-support products.

Precipitation in Santa Barbara, CA on varying timescales and the relationships with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and atmospheric rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, S. M.; Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.

2013-12-01

This study aimed to understand the patterns and variations of extreme precipitation events that occur in Santa Barbara County and determine the relationships with various phenomena that affect the region. Santa Barbara, CA is an area with complex topography that is disposed to numerous hazard events including landslides and flooding, particularly during the region's rainy season (Nov.-Apr.). These incidents are especially frequent in the seasons after fire-events, another hazard common to the region. In addition, Santa Barbara is affected by several tropical phenomena that influence precipitation on varying timescales including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and atmospheric rivers (ARs). It is well known that ENSO and the MJO influence storms that occur in southern California through processes such as the modulation of the upper level jet and the low level moisture flux. ARs have been revealed to be responsible for the movement of large quantities of water vapor from tropical areas to the midlatitudes and have been linked to high-intensity storms throughout the western coast of North America. We examined rainy season (Nov.-Apr.) precipitation within Santa Barbara County using hourly rainfall data spanning approximately forty years (~1971-2010) from seven, local, rain gauge stations. The distributions as well as totals of precipitation on varying timescales (hourly, daily, seasonal, and yearly) were defined for specified intensities of rainfall based upon the 75th, 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles. Persistence, expressed as the number of consecutive hours (or days) including intense precipitation defined according to the percentiles, was investigated on the hourly and daily timescales. In addition, specified storm episodes identified in this study were examined with data from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission in order to assess the spatial features of high-intensity storms. Results from this analysis will be used in future research to investigate the characteristics of mesoscale convective systems that occur within the region. We demonstrate that low-intensity events (i.e. measurements categorized at or below the 75th percentile in terms of intensity) primarily comprise a collection of many single, short-duration precipitation events. On the other hand, events classified at or above the 90th percentile were often observed during long-duration storm episodes. This indicates that high-intensity precipitation is likely to be a component of a large storm and is unlikely to occur as a single, unaccompanied event, whereas low-intensity events may occur with or without other accompanying events. The long-term trends and patterns of precipitation were also compared with records of ENSO, the MJO, and ARs. Additionally, we show that the topography of region is an important geographic feature that affects both the intensity as well as the duration of extreme precipitation events. This research is supposed to contribute to the mitigation of hazardous events that affect Santa Barbara by contributing to the knowledge and predictability of extreme precipitation events for the region.

Influence of warning information changes on emergency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heisterkamp, Tobias; Ulbrich, Uwe; Glade, Thomas; Tetzlaff, Gerd

2014-05-01

Mitigation and risk reduction of natural hazards is significantly related to the possibility of predicting the actual event. Some hazards can already be forecasted several days in advance. For these hazards, early warning systems have been developed, installed and improved over the years. The formation of winter storms for example can be recognized up to one week before they pass through Central Europe. This relative long early warning time has the advantage that forecasters can concretise the warnings over time. Therefore, warnings can even be adapted to alternating conditions within the process, the observation or changes in its modelling. Emergency managers are one group of warning recipients in the civil protection sector. They have to prepare or initiate prevention or response measures at a specific point of time, depending on the required lead time of the referring actions. At this point of time already, the forecast and its equivalent warning, has to be assumed as a stage of reality, hence the decision-makers have to come to a conclusion. These decisions are based on spatial and temporal knowledge of the forecasted event and the consequential situation of risk. With incoming warning updates, the detailed status of information is permanently being alternated. Consequently, decisions can be influenced by the development of the warning situation and the inherent tendency before a certain point of time. They can also be adapted to updates later on, according to the changing 'decision reality'. The influence of these dynamic hazard situations on operational planning and response by emergency managers is investigated in case studies on winter storms for Berlin, Germany. Therefore, the issued warnings by the weather service and data of operation of Berlin Fire Brigades are analysed and compared. This presentation shows and discusses first results.

Storm water monitoring along loop 202 and Salt River.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-10-01

A comprehensive research program for the characterization of storm water runoff from an Arizona : highway was conducted from January through December 2007. The study area covered a portion of : the Loop 202 freeway west of Mesa Drive to a retention b...

Hazards and hazard combinations relevant for the safety of nuclear power plants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decker, Kurt; Brinkman, Hans; Raimond, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The potential of the contemporaneous impact of different, yet causally related, hazardous events and event cascades on nuclear power plants is a major contributor to the overall risk of nuclear installations. In the aftermath of the Fukushima accident, which was caused by a combination of severe ground shaking by an earthquake, an earthquake-triggered tsunami and the disruption of the plants from the electrical grid by a seismically induced landslide, hazard combinations and hazard cascades moved into the focus of nuclear safety research. We therefore developed an exhaustive list of external hazards and hazard combinations which pose potential threats to nuclear installations in the framework of the European project ASAMPSAE (Advanced Safety Assessment: Extended PSA). The project gathers 31 partners from Europe, North Amerika and Japan. The list comprises of exhaustive lists of natural hazards, external man-made hazards, and a cross-correlation matrix of these hazards. The hazard list is regarded comprehensive by including all types of hazards that were previously cited in documents by IAEA, the Western European Nuclear Regulators Association (WENRA), and others. 73 natural hazards and 24 man-made external hazards are included. Natural hazards are grouped into seismotectonic hazards, flooding and hydrological hazards, extreme values of meteorological phenomena, rare meteorological phenomena, biological hazards / infestation, geological hazards, and forest fire / wild fire. The list of external man-made hazards includes industry accidents, military accidents, transportation accidents, pipeline accidents and other man-made external events. The large number of different hazards results in the extremely large number of 5.151 theoretically possible hazard combinations (not considering hazard cascades). In principle all of these combinations are possible to occur by random coincidence except for 82 hazard combinations that - depending on the time scale - are mutually exclusive (e.g., extremely high air temperature and surface ice). Our dataset further provides information on hazard combinations which are more likely to occur than just by random coincidence. 577 correlations between individual hazards are identified by expert opinion and shown in a cross-correlation chart. Combinations discriminate between: (1) causally connected hazards (cause-effect relation) where one hazard (e.g., costal erosion) may be caused by another hazard (e.g., storm surge); or where one hazard (e.g., high wind) is a prerequisite for a correlated hazard (e.g., storm surge). The identified causal links are not commutative. (2) Associated hazards ("contemporary" events) which are probable to occur at the same time due to a common root cause (e.g., a cold front of a meteorological low pressure area which leads to a drop of air pressure, high wind, thunderstorm, lightning, heavy rain and hail). The root cause may not necessarily be regarded as a hazard by itself. The hazard list and the hazard correlation chart may serve as a starting point for the hazard analysis process for nuclear installations in Level 1 PSA as outlined by IAEA (2010), the definition of design basis for nuclear reactors, and the assessment of design extension conditions as required by WENRA-RHWG (2014). It may further be helpful for the identification of hazard combinations and hazard cascades which threaten other critical infrastructure. References: Decker, K. & Brinkman, H., 2017. List of external hazards to be considered in extended PSA. Report No. ASAMPSA_E/WP21/D21.2/2017-41 - IRSN/ PSN-RES/SAG/2017-00011 IAEA, 2010. Development and Application of Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants. Safety Guide No. SSG-3, Vienna. http://www-pub.iaea.org/books/ WENRA-RHWG, 2014. WENRA Safety Reference Levels for Existing Reactors. Update in Relation to Lessons Learned from TEPCO Fukushima Dai-Ichi Accident. http://www.wenra.org/publications/

Mediterranean Storms: An Integrated Approach of Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karageorgou, H.; Riza, E.; Linos, A.; Papanikolaou, D.

2010-09-01

Disaster by UN definition is "a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society, involving widespread human, material, economic, or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using only its own resources". Mediterranean storms induce flash floods caused by excessive amounts of rainfall within a short lasting period of time. The intensity and duration of precipitation, region geomorphology, urbanization and different governmental emergency management structures trigger different consequences between Mediterranean countries. The integrated approach in management of storm risk represents a holistic perspective including interactions between government, science and technology institutions, developing agencies, private sector, NGOs and public. Local authorities and national government are responsible for the design, preparation and decision on storm risk management policies and strategies considering scientific risk identifying, assessing and understanding. Efficient governance management requires satisfied response to early warning systems, functionality of the affected systems upon which society depends and appropriate focus on variable interest, beliefs, values and ideologies between social groups. Also an appropriate balancing of benefits and costs in an efficient and equitable manner is important for the governance risk management. Natural sciences in corporation with the engineering science have developed effective early prediction, warning and monitoring systems on storm and flood risk. The health sciences use prediction systems for health related hazards and consequences and the social sciences research estimates the human resilience during disasters and the factors which affect and determine the human behavior. Also social sciences survey the response of public to early warning messages, the appropriate communicative methods to distributing messages and mechanisms to improve public response. The available and applied science and technology in prediction and early warning systems rely on the close collaboration between scientists and policy makers to achieve effective disaster prevention of human life and mitigation of damages. Developing agencies approach risk management as an integral part of development and encourage activities and measures to reduce the exposure and vulnerability to natural hazards through early warning systems, building codes, land use plans and disaster sensitive development plans. The human settlement and investment in high risk floodplains place greater numbers of people and economic assets in danger of being affected by storms and floods. Disasters and development are highly inter-related. Recurrent disasters and frequent localized disasters erode development and conversely the development processes can reduce disaster risk, or create new risks. The private sector participation in risk reduction efforts can help local communities mitigate disasters and increases the benefits of the businesses. The private insurance sector is highly involved in the prevention of disaster caused by natural hazards especially storms and floods. The collaboration between academic community and the insurance sector indicates the linkages between the mutual insurance actions and risk culture. Also tourism industry and private critical infrastructure sector get involved in prevention measures and activities against storm and flood risks to build sustainable functionality and keep public trust. NGOs focus on social, cultural, environmental, educational, or health issues in disaster management and their members are educated and experienced on their area of operations. The staff of local and national NGOs is familiar with culture, languages, governance structures, social networks, climate and geography of the affected area and holds a unique understanding of the specific problems of the affected population. Additionally, NGO’s operations do not suffer from bureaucracy and therefore are able to deploy on very short notice. The public awareness, behavior and response to disasters depend on the knowledge about the risk, the understanding of the information and the translation of what it means in their own particular circumstances. The majority of people judges the information to be credible and discusses the meaning of information with trusted family members, friends and colleagues to decide the next action. Well educated people, efficient management of previous experiences, successful communication methods and trust on government and authorities contribute towards efficient public response on disasters.

Examples Not Numbers: Using Historical Events To Present Regional Hazard Information And Stimulate Client Thinking In The Insurance Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pile, J.; Switzer, A.; Gouramanis, C.; Rush, B.; Reynolds, I.; Ryrie, S.; Soria, L.

2013-12-01

Coastal hazards, including tsunami and storm surges, periodically affect many of the world's coasts. Re-insurers and insurance companies use a variety of means to understand and quantify the recurrence interval and risk of such events. Such work is done with the primary aim of placing monetary values on the risk. This collective understanding is often gleaned from the available scientific literature and commonly makes use of maps to delineate areas of risk that assist in communicating risk with clients. In this study we approached the problem of producing an integrated map of coastal hazards (storm and tsunami) for much of southeast Asia (including the Bay of Bengal and northern Australia). Initial analysis showed that assessments based on the short, partial and, for the most part, fragmentary documented history of past events in southeast Asia, would deem almost every coast on the map at high risk of coastal hazards at the regional scale. Although this may be true to a certain extent it would be unjust and unscientific to label entire coastlines 'high risk' as clearly particular sites on any coast are more susceptible to coastal hazards at the local scale. This raises the question: What is the best way to communicate risk at a regional scale without broad generalisations? Our recent collaboration with a major re-insurer lead to the creation of a new form of map (poster) for their clientele using a case study approach aimed at getting clients to think about the details of historical events in the context of localised risk. Using the pedagogical premise of 'Concept, Example, Consequence', we highlight risk in a way that will hopefully stimulate thought among practitioners and provide an alternative to the broad generalizations found in many products in the marketplace. The envisaged outcome is to enhance communication of site-specific risk assessments between stakeholders and encourage a better understanding of localised and regional risk.

Defining and Measuring Coastal Vulnerability and Resilience to Natural Hazards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, M. K.; Hoagland, P.

2014-12-01

Accounting for an estimated 23 percent of the world's population, coastal communities face many types of natural hazards. In particular, they may be vulnerable to the effects of tropical cyclones, flooding due to tsunamis or storm surges, erosion, saltwater intrusion, and subsidence. These coastal hazards are further exacerbated by population growth and climate change. There is a lack of consensus in the literature about what constitutes vulnerability (negative impacts) and resilience (recovery from negative impacts) and how to measure these phenomena. While some important work has focused on the long-term effects of coastal hazards on economic growth, little has been done to understand, in quantitative terms, the extent to which coastal communities may be vulnerable to such hazards and, if so, whether they can be resilient. We surveyed nine indicators of human well-being in order to determine their potential suitability as measures of coastal vulnerability or resilience. Some measures, such as the Gross Domestic Product, the Human Development Index, and the Gini coefficient, comprise economic or distributional indicators of human welfare; others, such as the Social Vulnerability Index, are more complex and difficult to interpret. We selected per capita personal income as the most viable indicator, due largely to its simplicity and its availability over several decades. We used it to examine human community vulnerability and resilience to a specific coastal hazard—significant storm surges from major coastal hurricanes—in several US coastal metropolitan areas. We compiled data on per capita personal income from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for 15 to 20 years prior and subsequent to four major hurricanes: Hugo, which hit the Charleston, South Carolina, metropolitan area in 1989; Bob, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, in 1991; Andrew, Miami, Florida, in 1992; and Opal, Pensacola, Florida, in 1995. Intervention analysis using linear regression suggests that these coastal areas exhibited the full range of possible combinations of vulnerability and resilience.

Set-up and validation of a Delft-FEWS based coastal hazard forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valchev, Nikolay; Eftimova, Petya; Andreeva, Nataliya

2017-04-01

European coasts are increasingly threatened by hazards related to low-probability and high-impact hydro-meteorological events. Uncertainties in hazard prediction and capabilities to cope with their impact lie in both future storm pattern and increasing coastal development. Therefore, adaptation to future conditions requires a re-evaluation of coastal disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies and introduction of a more efficient mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. The latter presumes that development of tools, which can manage the complex process of merging data and models and generate products on the current and expected hydro-and morpho-dynamic states of the coasts, such as forecasting system of flooding and erosion hazards at vulnerable coastal locations (hotspots), is of vital importance. Output of such system can be of an utmost value for coastal stakeholders and the entire coastal community. In response to these challenges, Delft-FEWS provides a state-of-the-art framework for implementation of such system with vast capabilities to trigger the early warning process. In addition, this framework is highly customizable to the specific requirements of any individual coastal hotspot. Since its release many Delft-FEWS based forecasting system related to inland flooding have been developed. However, limited number of coastal applications was implemented. In this paper, a set-up of Delft-FEWS based forecasting system for Varna Bay (Bulgaria) and a coastal hotspot, which includes a sandy beach and port infrastructure, is presented. It is implemented in the frame of RISC-KIT project (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT). The system output generated in hindcast mode is validated with available observations of surge levels, wave and morphodynamic parameters for a sequence of three short-duration and relatively weak storm events occurred during February 4-12, 2015. Generally, the models' performance is considered as very good and results obtained - quite promising for reliable prediction of both boundary conditions and coastal hazard and gives a good basis for estimation of onshore impact.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Ammo Fire, San Diego County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Ammo Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Ranch Fire, Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Ranch Fire in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency assessment of debris-flow hazards from basins burned by the 2007 Harris Fire, San Diego County, southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

IntroductionThe objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Harris Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Rice Fire, San Diego County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Rice Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Poomacha Fire, San Diego County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Poomacha Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Witch Fire, San Diego County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Witch Fire in San Diego County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Slide and Grass Valley Fires, San Bernardino County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Slide and Grass Valley Fires in San Bernardino County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 3.50 inches (88.90 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Buckweed Fire, Los Angeles County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Buckweed Fire in Los Angeles County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Canyon Fire, Los Angeles County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Canyon Fire in Los Angeles County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 2.25 inches (57.15 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the 2007 Santiago Fire, Orange County, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Michael, John A.; Bauer, Mark A.; Stitt, Susan C.; Knifong, Donna L.; McNamara, Bernard J.; Roque, Yvonne M.

2007-01-01

INTRODUCTION The objective of this report is to present a preliminary emergency assessment of the potential for debris-flow generation from basins burned by the Santiago Fire in Orange County, southern California in 2007. Debris flows are among the most hazardous geologic phenomena; debris flows that followed wildfires in southern California in 2003 killed 16 people and caused tens of millions of dollars of property damage. A short period of even moderate rainfall on a burned watershed can lead to debris flows. Rainfall that is normally absorbed into hillslope soils can run off almost instantly after vegetation has been removed by wildfire. This causes much greater and more rapid runoff than is normal from creeks and drainage areas. Highly erodible soils in a burn scar allow flood waters to entrain large amounts of ash, mud, boulders, and unburned vegetation. Within the burned area and downstream, the force of rushing water, soil, and rock can destroy culverts, bridges, roadways, and buildings, potentially causing injury or death. This emergency debris-flow hazard assessment is presented as relative ranking of the predicted median volume of debris flows that can issue from basin outlets in response to 1.75 inches (44.45 mm) of rainfall over a 3-hour period. Such a storm has a 10-year return period. The calculation of debris flow volume is based on a multiple-regression statistical model that describes the median volume of material that can be expected from a recently burned basin as a function of the area burned at high and moderate severity, the basin area with slopes greater than or equal to 30 percent, and triggering storm rainfall. Cannon and others (2007) describe the methods used to generate the hazard maps. Identification of potential debris-flow hazards from burned drainage basins is necessary to issue warnings for specific basins, to make effective mitigation decisions, and to help plan evacuation timing and routes.

Coastal Hazard due to Tropical Cyclones in Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Casarin, R.; Mendoza-Baldwin, E.; Marino-Tapia, I.; Enriquez, C.; Ruiz, G.; Escalante-MAncera, E.; Ruíz-Rentería, F.

2013-05-01

The Mexican coast is hit every year by at least 3 cyclones and it is affected for nearly 59 hours a year on average; this induces undesirable consequences, such as coastal erosion and flooding. To evaluate the hazard to which the coastal zone is exposes, a historical characterization of atmospheric conditions (surface winds and pressure conditions of the storms), waves (wave heights and their associated wave periods) and flooding levels due to tropical storms for more than 60 years is presented. The atmospheric and wave conditions were evaluated using a modification of the original parametric Hydromet-Rankin Vortex Model by Bretschneider (1990) and Holland (1980) as presented by Silva, et al. (2002). The flooding levels caused by hurricanes were estimated using a two-dimensional, vertically averaged finite volume model to evaluate the storm surge, Posada et al. (2008). The cyclone model was compared to the data series of 29 cyclones recorded by buoys of the National Data Buoy Center-NOAA and some data recorded in shallow waters near Cancun, Mexico and the flooding model was compared with observed data from Cancun, Mexico; both models gave good results. For the extreme analyses of wind, wave heights and maximum flooding levels on the Mexican coasts, maps of the scale and location parameters used in the Weibull cumulative distribution function and numerical results for different return periods are provided. The historical occurrence of tropical storms is also revised as some studies indicate that the average intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing; no definite trends pointing to an increase in storm frequency or intensity were found. What was in fact found is that although there are more cyclones in the Pacific Ocean and these persist longer, the intensity of the cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean is greater affecting. In any case, the strong necessity of avoiding storm induced coastal damage (erosion and flooding) is reflected in numerous works, such as this one, which aim to better manage the coastal area and reduce its vulnerability to hurricanes. References Bretschneider, C.L., 1990. Tropical Cyclones. Handbook of Coastal and Ocean Engineering, Gulf Publishing Co., Vol. 1, 249-370. Holland, G.L., 1980. An analytical model of wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes. Monthly Weather Review, 108, 1212-1218. Posada, G., Silva, R. & de Brye, S. 2008. Three dimensional hydrodynamic model with multiquadtree meshes. American Journal of Environmental Sciences. 4(3): 209-222. Silva, R., Govaere, G., Salles, P., Bautista, G. & Díaz, G. 2002. Oceanographic vulnerability to hurricanes on the Mexican coast. International Conference on Coastal Engineering, pp. 39-51.

Comparison Between GOES-12 Overshooting-Top Detections, WSR-88D Radar Reflectivity, and Severe Storm Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dworak, Richard; Bedka, Kristopher; Brunner, Jason; Feltz, Wayne

2012-01-01

Studies have found that convective storms with overshooting-top (OT) signatures in weather satellite imagery are often associated with hazardous weather, such as heavy rainfall, tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. An objective satellite-based OT detection product has been developed using 11-micrometer infrared window (IRW) channel brightness temperatures (BTs) for the upcoming R series of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) Advanced Baseline Imager. In this study, this method is applied to GOES-12 IRW data and the OT detections are compared with radar data, severe storm reports, and severe weather warnings over the eastern United States. The goals of this study are to 1) improve forecaster understanding of satellite OT signatures relative to commonly available radar products, 2) assess OT detection product accuracy, and 3) evaluate the utility of an OT detection product for diagnosing hazardous convective storms. The coevolution of radar-derived products and satellite OT signatures indicates that an OT often corresponds with the highest radar echo top and reflectivity maximum aloft. Validation of OT detections relative to composite reflectivity indicates an algorithm false-alarm ratio of 16%, with OTs within the coldest IRW BT range (less than 200 K) being the most accurate. A significant IRW BT minimum typically present with an OT is more often associated with heavy precipitation than a region with a spatially uniform BT. Severe weather was often associated with OT detections during the warm season (April September) and over the southern United States. The severe weather to OT relationship increased by 15% when GOES operated in rapid-scan mode, showing the importance of high temporal resolution for observing and detecting rapidly evolving cloud-top features. Comparison of the earliest OT detection associated with a severe weather report showed that 75% of the cases occur before severe weather and that 42% of collocated severe weather reports had either an OT detected before a severe weather warning or no warning issued at all. The relationships between satellite OT signatures, severe weather, and heavy rainfall shown in this paper suggest that 1) when an OT is detected, the particular storm is likely producing heavy rainfall and/or possibly severe weather; 2) an objective OT detection product can be used to increase situational awareness and forecaster confidence that a given storm is severe; and 3) this product may be particularly useful in regions with insufficient radar coverage.

Review of occupational hazards associated with aquaculture.

PubMed

Myers, Melvin L

2010-10-01

Aquaculture is an emerging sector that is associated with most of the same hazards that are present in agriculture generally, but many fish farming tasks entail added danger, including working around water and working at night. Comprehensive studies of these hazards have not been conducted, and substantial uncertainty exists as to the extent of these hazards. The question addressed in this investigation was, "What is known about potential hazardous occupational exposures to aquatic plant and animal farmers?" In this review, causes of death included drowning, electrocution, crushing-related injury, hydrogen sulfide poisoning, and fatal head injury. Nonfatal injuries were associated with slips, trips, and falls; machines; strains and sprains; chemicals; and fires. Risk factors included cranes (tip over and power line contact), tractors and sprayer-equipped all-terrain vehicles (overturn), heavy loads (lifting), high-pressure sprayers, slippery surfaces, rotting waste (hydrogen sulfide production), eroding levees (overturn hazard), storm-related rushing water, diving conditions (bends and drowning), nighttime conditions, working alone, lack of training, lack of or failure to use personal flotation devices, and all-terrain vehicle speeding. Other hazards included punctures or cuts from fish teeth or spines, needlesticks, exposure to low temperatures, and bacterial and parasitic infections .

Early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brock, John C.; Lavoie, Dawn L.; Poore, Richard Z.

2011-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region and its diverse ecosystems are threatened by population and development pressure and by the impacts of rising sea level and severe storms such as the series of hurricanes that has impacted the northern Gulf in recent years. In response to the complex management issues facing the region, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) organized a multidisciplinary research program to coordinate the activities of USGS and other scientists working in the northern Gulf of Mexico region (fig. 1). The Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project aims to develop a thorough understanding of the dynamic coastal ecosystems on the northern Gulf coast, the impact of human activities on these ecosystems, and the vulnerability of ecosystems and human communities to more frequent and more intense hurricanes in the future. A special issue of Geo-Marine Letters published in December 2009 is devoted to early results of studies completed as part of this project. These studies, which have been conducted at sites throughout the northern Gulf region, from the Chandeleur Islands to Apalachicola Bay, have focused on three themes: (1) The underlying geologic framework that exerts controls over coastal processes (2) The impact of human activities on nearshore water quality (3) Hurricanes and associated effects

An overview of 2016 WISE Urban Summer Observation Campaign (WUSOC 2016) in the Seoul metropolitan area of South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Sang-Woo; Shim, Jae-Kwan; Kwak, Kyung-Hwan

2017-04-01

The Weather Information Service Engine (WISE), launched project of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), aims to operate the urban meteorological observation network from 2012 to 2019 and to test and operate the application weather service (e.g., flash flood, road weather, city ecology, city microclimate, dispersion of hazardous substance etc.) in 2019 through the development of Advanced Storm-scale Analysis Prediction System(ASAPS) for the production of storm-scale hazard weather monitoring and prediction system. The WISE institute has completed construction of 31 urban meteorological observation cities in Seoul metropolitan area and has built a real-time test operation and verification system by improving the ASAPS that produces 1 km and 6 hour forecast information based on the 5 km forecast information of KMA. Field measurements of 2016 WISE Urban Summer Observation Campaign (WUSOC 2016) was conducted in the Seoul metropolitan area of South Korea from August 22 to October 14, 2016. Involving over 70 researchers from more than 12 environmental and atmospheric science research groups in South Korea, WUSOC2016 focused on special observations, severe rain storm observations using mobile observation car and radiosonde, wind profile observations using Wind Doppler Lidar and radiosonde, etc., around the Seoul metropolitan area. WUSOC2016 purpose at data quality control, accuracy verification, usability check, and quality improvement of ASAPS at observation stations constructed in WISE. In addition, we intend to contribute to the activation of urban fusion weather research and risk weather research through joint observation and data sharing.

Guideline for assessing the performance of electric power systems in natural hazard and human threat events

USGS Publications Warehouse

Savage, W.U.; Nishenko, S.P.; Honegger, D.G.; Kempner, L.

2006-01-01

Electric power utilities are familiar with and skilled in preparing for and responding to almost-routine natural hazard events such as strong wind and ice storms and seasonal floods, as well as intentional human acts such as vandalism. Recent extreme weather (hurricanes Katrina and Rita), extremely destructive international earthquakes (in Sumatra and Pakistan), and nation-wide concerns regarding future terrorist attacks have increased the pressure on utilities to take appropriate steps to avoid being overwhelmed by such infrequent and exceedingly severe events. Determining what constitutes the appropriate steps to take requires various levels of understanding of the specific hazards and the risks faced by the utility. The American Lifelines Alliance (www. americanlifelinesalliance.org) has prepared a Guideline that provides clear, concise, and nationally-applicable guidance on determining the scope and level of effort necessary to assess power system performance in the wide range of natural hazard or human threat events. Included in this Guideline are specific procedures to follow and information to consider in performing standardized assessments. With the results of such assessments, utility owners can effectively establish and carry out risk management programs that will lead to achieving appropriate levels of performance in future events. The Guideline incorporates an inquiry-driven process with a two-phase performance assessment that can be applied to power systems of any size. The screening phase enables systems or components that are clearly not at risk to be screened out early. The subsequent analysis phase uses results from the screening phase to prioritize and allocate resources for more detailed assessments of hazard, vulnerability, and system performance. This process helps assure that the scope of the assessment meets the specific performance objectives of the inquiry. A case history is presented to illustrate the type of experience with an inquiry-driven process that was considered in developing the Guideline to meet the diverse needs of utility personnel in engineering, operations, and management. Copyright ASCE 2007.

Movie-maps of low-latitude magnetic storm disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.; Gannon, Jennifer L.

2010-06-01

We present 29 movie-maps of low-latitude horizontal-intensity magnetic disturbance for the years 1999-2006: 28 recording magnetic storms and 1 magnetically quiescent period. The movie-maps are derived from magnetic vector time series data collected at up to 25 ground-based observatories. Using a technique similar to that used in the calculation of Dst, a quiet time baseline is subtracted from the time series from each observatory. The remaining disturbance time series are shown in a polar coordinate system that accommodates both Earth rotation and the universal time dependence of magnetospheric disturbance. Each magnetic storm recorded in the movie-maps is different. While some standard interpretations about the storm time equatorial ring current appear to apply to certain moments and certain phases of some storms, the movie-maps also show substantial variety in the local time distribution of low-latitude magnetic disturbance, especially during storm commencements and storm main phases. All movie-maps are available at the U.S. Geological Survey Geomagnetism Program Web site (http://geomag.usgs.gov).

33 CFR 203.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.41... constructed hurricane/shore protection projects. (b) Implementation of authority. The Rehabilitation and... projects damaged by floods and coastal storm events. The RIP consists of a process to inspect flood control...

33 CFR 203.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.41... constructed hurricane/shore protection projects. (b) Implementation of authority. The Rehabilitation and... projects damaged by floods and coastal storm events. The RIP consists of a process to inspect flood control...

33 CFR 203.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.41... constructed hurricane/shore protection projects. (b) Implementation of authority. The Rehabilitation and... projects damaged by floods and coastal storm events. The RIP consists of a process to inspect flood control...

33 CFR 203.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.41... constructed hurricane/shore protection projects. (b) Implementation of authority. The Rehabilitation and... projects damaged by floods and coastal storm events. The RIP consists of a process to inspect flood control...

33 CFR 203.41 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Control Works Damaged by Flood or Coastal Storm: The Corps Rehabilitation and Inspection Program § 203.41... constructed hurricane/shore protection projects. (b) Implementation of authority. The Rehabilitation and... projects damaged by floods and coastal storm events. The RIP consists of a process to inspect flood control...

Explanation for Anomalous Readings during Monitoring of a Best Management Practice

EPA Science Inventory

The USEPA's Urban Watershed Management Branch (UWMB) has monitored storm-water drainage and best management practices (BMPs) as part of its overall research program. As part of this effort, continuous monitoring equipment was deployed to measure both storm events and periods bet...

GUIDANCE MANUAL FOR IMPLEMENTING MUNICIPAL STORM WATER MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS; PLANNING AND ADMINISTRATION

EPA Science Inventory

Urbanization and industrial activities around the country have significantly altered the natural landscape of our Nation's watersheds. This, in turn, has adversely affected both the quantity and the quality of storm water runoff and has contributed to the chemical, physical, and...

40 CFR 122.33 - If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply for an NPDES permit and when do I...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... information that your NPDES permitting authority requests. A storm sewer map that satisfies the requirement of... area as a medium or large MS4 with an NPDES storm water permit and that other MS4 is willing to have you participate in its storm water program, you and the other MS4 may jointly seek a modification of...

40 CFR 122.33 - If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply for an NPDES permit and when do I...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... information that your NPDES permitting authority requests. A storm sewer map that satisfies the requirement of... area as a medium or large MS4 with an NPDES storm water permit and that other MS4 is willing to have you participate in its storm water program, you and the other MS4 may jointly seek a modification of...

40 CFR 122.33 - If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply for an NPDES permit and when do I...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... information that your NPDES permitting authority requests. A storm sewer map that satisfies the requirement of... area as a medium or large MS4 with an NPDES storm water permit and that other MS4 is willing to have you participate in its storm water program, you and the other MS4 may jointly seek a modification of...

40 CFR 122.33 - If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply for an NPDES permit and when do I...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... information that your NPDES permitting authority requests. A storm sewer map that satisfies the requirement of... area as a medium or large MS4 with an NPDES storm water permit and that other MS4 is willing to have you participate in its storm water program, you and the other MS4 may jointly seek a modification of...

40 CFR 122.33 - If I am an operator of a regulated small MS4, how do I apply for an NPDES permit and when do I...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... information that your NPDES permitting authority requests. A storm sewer map that satisfies the requirement of... area as a medium or large MS4 with an NPDES storm water permit and that other MS4 is willing to have you participate in its storm water program, you and the other MS4 may jointly seek a modification of...

Rainfall, Streamflow, and Water-Quality Data During Stormwater Monitoring, Halawa Stream Drainage Basin, Oahu, Hawaii, July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2003

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Stacie T.M.; Ball, Marcael T.J.

2003-01-01

Storm runoff water-quality samples were collected as part of the State of Hawaii Department of Transportation Stormwater Monitoring Program. This program is designed to assess the effects of highway runoff and urban runoff on Halawa Stream. For this program, rainfall data was collected at two sites, continuous streamflow data at three sites, and water-quality data at five sites, which include the three streamflow sites. This report summarizes rainfall, streamflow, and water-quality data collected between July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2003. A total of 28 samples were collected over five storms during July 1, 2002 to June 30, 2003. For two of the five storms, five grab samples and three flow-weighted timecomposite samples were collected. Grab samples were collected nearly simultaneously at all five sites, and flow-weighted timecomposite samples were collected at the three sites equipped with automatic samplers. The other three storms were partially sampled, where only flow-weighted time-composite samples were collected and/or not all stations were sampled. Samples were analyzed for total suspended solids, total dissolved solids, nutrients, chemical oxygen demand, and selected trace metals (cadmium, copper, lead, and zinc). Grab samples were additionally analyzed for oil and grease, total petroleum hydrocarbons, fecal coliform, and biological oxygen demand. Quality-assurance/qualitycontrol samples, collected during storms and during routine maintenance, were also collected to verify analytical procedures and insure proper cleaning of equipment.

Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stronko, Jakob M.

2013-01-01

Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

Public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: Chapter M in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Laurie; Real, Chuck

2013-01-01

The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) tsunami scenario simulates a tsunami generated by a hypothetical magnitude 9.1 earthquake that occurs offshore of the Alaska Peninsula (Kirby and others, 2013). In addition to the work performed by the authors on public-policy issues associated with the SAFRR tsunami scenario, this section of the scenario also reflects the policy discussions of the State of California’s Tsunami Policy Work Group, a voluntary advisory body formed in October 2011, which operates under the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA), Department of Conservation, and is charged with identifying, evaluating, and making recommendations to resolve issues that are preventing full and effective implementation of tsunami hazard mitigation and risk reduction throughout California’s coastal communities. It also presents the analyses of plans and hazard policies of California’s coastal counties, incorporated cities, and major ports performed by the staff of the California Geological Survey (CGS) and Lauren Prehoda, Office of Environmental and Government Affairs, California Department of Conservation. It also draws on the policy framework and assessment prepared for the ARkStorm Pacific Coast winter storm and catastrophic flooding (Topping and others, 2010).